GameStop: The Game Is Far From Over

seekingalpha2021-07-25

Summary GameStop has revamped itself to progressively move towards to become a major e-commerce player. We think the company may possibly be at an inflection point, if the management team is able to ...

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精彩评论

SteveCcc
2021-07-26
SteveCcc
like pls
KC17
2021-07-26
KC17
Pl like
- GabrielS:
  help like too
CalvinCougar
2021-07-26
CalvinCougar
Yes
MarkN
2021-07-26
MarkN
Revenue is >USD1 billion a quarter.
MrGreen
2021-07-26
MrGreen
Like pls
乐菠萝
2021-07-26
乐菠萝
Wow awesome
- alaric:
  Yes

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510

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Clover Health (CLOV) short-sellers, who believed the stock was overvalued, were down $438 million in mark-to-market losses. GameStop short sellers lost over $5 billion.Perplexing the markets “for the memes”—i.e., it’s just funny. Reddit posts on r/WallStreetBets highlight how members make seemingly irrational investment decisions for the joy of duping financial institutions.Pump and dump. The artificially inflated share prices can maximize profit for the lucky few who invest early.\n\nWe think investors who have been schooled in fundamental analysis would never be able to develop models that could fully factor in the above, as these investors think the long term value of stocks are driven by the long term strength and the competitive moat of their underlying businesses, but not with the \"ludicrous\" methods adopted by the Redditors in the way they analyze stocks.\nIn this article, we dive deeper to look at the key fundamental drivers underpinning GME's business, and how we think the Reddit community's participation and influence in meme stocks like GME would continue to disrupt the valuation outlook for the company moving forward.\nWhat Has Changed for GameStop since the January Mania?\nGME recently appointed2 key veteranexecutives from Amazon (AMZN): Matt Furlong and Mike Recupero as its CEO and CFO, respectively, as part of Chairman Ryan Cohen's strategic revamp of GME's business model to pivot towards becoming a major \"e-commerce powerhouse.\"\nWhile the guidance from the new management may have been sparse so far, the team has certainly gotten down to work quickly, to put in place the necessary building blocks to gradually move GME into a major e-commerce player, as they have started to expand itsfulfillment centers, with two new recent facilities in Reno, Nevada and York, Pennsylvania, that have given the company a total capacity of more than 1.2M square feet.\nRyan Cohen has also made it clear that the company wouldn't be specifying intricate details on its overhaul plans to its competitors, but instead appealing to investors to judge the team on their actions, as he emphasized:\n\n You won’t find ustalking a big game, making a bunch of lofty promises or telegraphing our strategy to the competition...We have a lot of work in front of us. Moving forward, we want you to judge GameStop based on our actions -- not our words.\n\nHowever, the Street was hardly convinced with Ryan Cohen or the company’s strategy, asWedbush Securitiesarticulated recently: “I think it got away from him. I think his ego’s gotten in the way and now he's going to prove [to] everybody [that he] knows what he's doing. If there [was] a strategy, it's shocking that he hasn't told us. We were supposed to hear about this five months ago. What is such a secret?”\nQuarterly revenues. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nLTM revenue. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWe could observe that the company seems to have been able to arrest the declining trend in its revenue in Q4'21 and Q1'22 (GME defines its FY differently from its CY), which took place well before the new management was in place. The company's Q4'21 revenue of $2.12B was its strong quarter over the last 3 years, while Q1'22's revenue grew 25% YoY. Therefore, when we plotted it over an LTM basis, we think that there's hope over the horizon, that perhaps the new management team may have an encouraging start, in the company's quest to become an important e-commerce competitor. We think investors should continue monitoring this space closely, especially on the build-up of the company's fulfillment centers, which is highly integral towards its e-commerce ambitions.\nLTM EBIT margins trend. Data Source: S&P Capital IQ\nWhile the company's EBIT margin trend has certainly been of major concern, we think this is an area certainly worth watching, as yet again we observed an improvement in the LTM trend, as the company posted an LTM EBIT margin of -3.5% in Q1'22, as compared to its LTM EBIT margin of -4.9% in Q4'21. While we don't think the company is out of the woods yet, but we think the company may have stopped the rot, at least for now.\nDebt to Equity Ratio. Source:Simply Wall St\nLTM Levered FCF margin. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nThe company has also astutely capitalized on its share price to completetwo equity offeringsto buttress its balance sheet. As a result, the company's debt to equity ratio has improved significantly to 5.5%, with a debt balance of just $48.1M, while having a cash and ST investments balance of $694.7M (as of 1 May 21, before both equity offerings which raised a total of $1.677B, and before paring down of debt). In addition, the company has also never really been bleeding cash, as its levered FCF margins trend has always been relatively healthy while having also improved its LTM levered FCF margin at the recent quarter to 1.6%.\nTherefore, we think GME looks well-positioned to take advantage of its strategic overhaul towards its new e-commerce pivot if the management can successfully execute moving forward. While we are not too sure at this point on the roadmap ahead for GME, the Reddit community seems to be ready to continue supporting this company, as we shall go into detail how the Reddit community would continue to be a highly important force to be reckoned with, in their quest to bolster the stock price of the company, such that even Ryan Cohen made it a point to pay a special tribute to the Reddit community:\n\n We’re fortunateto have such a special group of investors holding the company’s shares, you guys inspire us to think bigger, fight harder and work longer each day.\n\nThe Reddit Community Grew by 25.9% in 2020\nUS social network user growth, by platform 2020 & 2021. Source:eMarketer\nInvestors should be able to observe that Reddit posted highly remarkable growth in 2020, as users on its platform grew by 25.9% YoY, andeMarketeralso expects the Reddit community to grow by 14.4% in 2021, to reach 43.3M users. We think the increasing popularity towards the adoption of Reddit would continue to sustain investors' interest in meme stocks like GME, moving forward.\nPopulation distribution in the US in 2019, by generation. Data source: US Census Bureau\nWe believe that Reddit has certainly benefited from the secular drivers underpinning digitization, which has also led to significant growth and popularity in trading platforms like Robinhood (HOOD), where theaverage agein 2020 is 31 years old. This puts the average age of Robinhood users right within the age group of the Millennials, who were born between 1981 and 1996 (25 to 40 years old), and accounted for 21.97% of the US population, based on the 2019 census.\nImportantly, we could also observe that Millennial investors are interested in stocks that are not the “safe and steady” stocks that a typical investor is expected to hold if I could put it that way. We don’t think valuations form the most important considerations to these investors as we could observe from the above.\nAccording to a report byApex Clearing, Tesla (TSLA) formed the largest holdings of their Millennials portfolio in Q1’21, with a 28.3% share, a stock that we think investors would not typically say it’s cheap. While AAPL was the second-largest holding with a 14.5% share, GME also rounded up the top 4 with a 5.2% share, lending support to our opinion that Millennial investors’ motivations are driven by factors beyond just fundamentals and valuations.\nAmong the holdings in the Millennials portfolio, we could observe many other examples that corroborate these investors' interests in premium stocks, like Nvidia (NVDA), another meme stock like AMC Entertainment (AMC), Churchill Capital Corp (CCIV), its third-largest holding; Nio (NIO), Palantir (PLTR), and even Square (SQ), stocks we think investors would not typically ascribe as value stocks.\nTherefore, we think the general investor community needs to understand that there’s a huge and growing base of investors whose understanding and expectations of fundamentals and valuations are certainly quite different from what our typical valuation models could account for.\nWe think the market is definitely bigger and much more complex than what we know, and it’s just not possible to use the same fundamental analysis and valuation methods to value meme stocks like GME and say that they are way overvalued, a process that we honestly think is quite meaningless in the world of meme stocks investment.\nAnalyzing the Reddit Opinion\nIndividual investors’ opinion on Reddit after GameStop short squeeze in the US, UK, and Canada as of Feb 21, by age. Data source:Brunswick\nAccording to a survey by Brunswick, we could observe the importance of the Reddit forums as an investment tool for investors, especially among the younger investors within the age group of 18-29 years old. About 14% of all investors “trust Reddit as a media alternative,” and the share even shot up to 31% among the younger investors. In addition, a good proportion (25%) of the younger investors also took part in the GME opportunities, while 20% of them think that the GME events “represent a fundamental shift of power in the market.” While these opinions may belong within the minority of investors, we think the proportion of investors is certainly large enough to raise the eyebrows of the general investment community, and therefore we think the power of the Reddit forums is certainly a force to be reckoned with moving ahead.\nShare of institutional investors using Reddit to investigate an issue in the US, UK, and Canada. Data source: Brunswick\nAverage trust score assigned by institutional investors to Reddit in the US, UK, and Canada. Data source: Brunswick\nWe could observe Reddit’s increasing influence even among institutional investors, as 27% of them used Reddit to “investigate an issue”, which increased discernibly from the previous years, even though their trust in the platform dropped markedly from an average score of 3.5 in 2019 to 2.0 in 2021. We think this shows that institutional investors consider Reddit’s increasing influence in the general investment community’s decision-making process, but they don’t trust those things going on in those forums as meaningful enough for their \"well-developed\" processes, as compared to individual investors shown earlier.\nInstitutional investors' attitude towards members of the Reddit wallstreetbets community. Data source: Brunswick\nWhile 48% of institutional investors think that the Redditors “might have a short term influence, but they won’t be able to sustain it,” 27% developed some curiosity regarding Reddit influence among the investors’ community, and 13% of them developed some form of respect for the way the Redditors were able to amass an army to outgun some of Wall Street’s brightest minds. We were therefore not surprised to find that 20% of these institutional investors were frustrated with what they considered as “market manipulation” by the Redditors.\nLooking Ahead\nOwnership breakdown. Source:Simply Wall St\nInstitutional ownership changes. Source:Marketbeat\nMoving forward, we think meme stocks like GME would continue to feature prominently within the Reddit forums and remain one of their “flagship” stocks in their fight against the Street. Retail investors now hold the largest share of ownership of GME stock, accounting for 45.1% of total ownership. Interestingly, there’s still a sizable proportion (36.4%) of institutional investors that remain vested in GME, which includes GME’s largest shareholder: Blackrock, which owns 12.36% of GME stock. While GME witnessed a significant outflow of $1.93B of institutional capital in Q2’21, the stock price remained well above the closing price of $17.25, on the first trading day of 2021.\nPercentage of float shorted over time. Source:Marketbeat\nImportantly, the price continues to be sustained even though the short percentage of float has dropped significantly from 41.96% in Jan, to “just” 14.18% at the end of June, its lowest recorded two-week period in 2021.\nOther than the 45.1% of retail investors who are vested in GME, the stock is also supported by Ryan Cohen’s 12.13% share, which makes him the second-largest shareholder of GME stock, behind Blackrock, even though the purchase price for his last batch of 1.274M shares in Dec 20 is about $14.24, which certainly gives him a huge margin of safety if we consider GME’s last closing price of $178.85.\nPrice Action and Trend Analysis\nSource: TradingView\nEver since the mania we witnessed at the start of the year, GME has settled down and seems to have developed an uptrend bias, with a support level that has attracted strong buying interest between the $130 and $160 price level previously. It is a level that we expect the buyers to continue defending strongly, based on our price action analysis. For investors who are keen to take a position in GME, we think they may consider an entry within that buy range that we highlighted.\nWhile we are convinced that the volatility in GameStop’s price is likely to continue moving ahead, we think the stock has incredibly found huge buying interest among the retail community that has shaken the foundations of the institutional investors, asStenham Asset Managementarticulated:\n\n \"In the current environment, you are being negligent if you don’t measure and manage your exposure on the short side to both crowding and retail interest,\" and we think one of the multibillion-dollar US hedge fund also succinctly summed up the rising influence of the Reddit community: “[We] are absolutely looking at forums such as WSB, we are monitoring that extremely closely.”\n\nIn GameStop, we think the game is certainly far from being 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too"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":177585734,"gmtCreate":1627252634328,"gmtModify":1633766971833,"author":{"id":"4088168670997490","authorId":"4088168670997490","name":"CalvinCougar","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/400aaa31d84fe856132900270462f631","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4088168670997490","idStr":"4088168670997490"},"htmlText":"Yes","listText":"Yes","text":"Yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177585734","repostId":1107345366,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":177514131,"gmtCreate":1627251817823,"gmtModify":1633766981864,"author":{"id":"3575420342405162","authorId":"3575420342405162","name":"MarkN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99ad375a87341ac6ee6e1e5a9fe435c3","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3575420342405162","idStr":"3575420342405162"},"htmlText":"Revenue is &gt;USD1 billion a quarter.","listText":"Revenue is &gt;USD1 billion a quarter.","text":"Revenue is >USD1 billion a quarter.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177514131","repostId":1107345366,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":177531441,"gmtCreate":1627249398783,"gmtModify":1633766994579,"author":{"id":"3576511277084418","authorId":"3576511277084418","name":"MrGreen","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15d34383baa6cc8886d9224669a807d4","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3576511277084418","idStr":"3576511277084418"},"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177531441","repostId":1107345366,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":177501596,"gmtCreate":1627232985615,"gmtModify":1631891688048,"author":{"id":"3567937997012765","authorId":"3567937997012765","name":"乐菠萝","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/812393b7746e3973ab8556cd3e531ce9","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3567937997012765","idStr":"3567937997012765"},"htmlText":"Wow awesome","listText":"Wow awesome","text":"Wow 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