Here’s how far the Nasdaq could fall if bond yields reach 2%

MarketWatch2021-03-12

In early Friday action, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was rising and Nasdaq 100 futures were falling. That’s been the pattern over the last month. After a very close connection since the pandemic ...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

pandaroar
2021-03-15
pandaroar
Small caps and emerging markets seem to continue to be strong. Hyper growth stocks seem more volatile than ever.
Altas
2021-03-14
Altas
Pound
BpchuA
2021-03-14
BpchuA
Bad bad bad....
Whyeloon
2021-03-14
Whyeloon
Imo it will not reach 2% until year end
WilliamTeo
2021-03-12
WilliamTeo
Upbor down
WilliamTeo
2021-03-12
WilliamTeo
Up or down today

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1106238374?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"","is_english":true,"pubTime":"2021-03-12 20:05","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","id":"1106238374","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"Here’s how far the Nasdaq could fall if bond yields reach 2%","media":"MarketWatch","content":"<div>\n<p>In early Friday action, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was rising and Nasdaq 100 futures were falling.\nThat’s been the pattern over the last month. After a very close connection since the pandemic ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-how-far-the-nasdaq-could-fall-if-bond-yields-reach-2-11615548461?mod=home-page\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"market_watch","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here’s how far the Nasdaq could fall if bond yields reach 2%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere’s how far the Nasdaq could fall if bond yields reach 2%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-12 20:05 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-how-far-the-nasdaq-could-fall-if-bond-yields-reach-2-11615548461?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>In early Friday action, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was rising and Nasdaq 100 futures were falling.\nThat’s been the pattern over the last month. After a very close connection since the pandemic ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-how-far-the-nasdaq-could-fall-if-bond-yields-reach-2-11615548461?mod=home-page\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":".DJI","symbol_name":"道琼斯","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-how-far-the-nasdaq-could-fall-if-bond-yields-reach-2-11615548461?mod=home-page","article_id":"1106238374","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1106238374","pubTimestamp":1615550736,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"market_watch","name":"华尔街大事件"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"In early Friday action, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was rising and Nasdaq 100 futures were fal","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"marketwatch.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"translate_title":"下面是如果债券收益率达到2%的话，纳斯达克可能会下跌多远","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9},"content_text":"In early Friday action, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was rising and Nasdaq 100 futures were falling.\nThat’s been the pattern over the last month. After a very close connection since the pandemic began, inflation-adjusted yields have kept climbing, but the Nasdaq 100 has suffered. That makes sense given the rich valuation tech stocks enjoy — when safe bonds offer more than crumbs as return, they present an investment alternative to stocks.\n\nSo analysts are now modelling just how far techs could fall if bond yields keep rising. Joe Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research, says the Nasdaq 100 could fall 20% from its peak if the 10-year Treasury reaches 2%. (The index is already down 6% from its peak.)\n\nKalish’s calculation depends on other relationships holding steady. He says earnings yields and forecasted corporate bond yields have moved in tandem since 2014. A 2% 10-year Treasury would likely cause the bond yields on Baa-related bonds — the lowest investment-grade rating — to reach 4.5%, requiring a 20% drop in the Nasdaq 100 to keep that relationship consistent.\n\nStrategists at French bank Societe Generale tend to agree. They’ve looked at the theoretical impact of a rise in bond yields, at different price-to-equity ratios. Given that the Nasdaq Composite is trading on 31.5 times earnings, according to FactSet data, the chart shows the impact could be steep.\nThat said, most notable is that Kalish remains bullish on stocks even with those risks. He looked at another measure of valuation, using Census Bureau data on cash-flow margins. “As cash flow has improved since the early 1990s and the cost of capital has fallen with interest rates, the economic margin has risen,” he writes. Right now, that margin is above its 5-year average. In the U.S., the firm is recommending small caps over large caps and value over growth.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":322057510,"gmtCreate":1615749494630,"gmtModify":1703492517253,"author":{"id":"3576088975090731","authorId":"3576088975090731","name":"pandaroar","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a89ea1d0b07ef871d4ca0666dcc1abd","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3576088975090731","idStr":"3576088975090731"},"htmlText":"Small caps and emerging markets seem to continue to be strong. Hyper growth stocks seem more volatile than ever.","listText":"Small caps and emerging markets seem to continue to be strong. Hyper growth stocks seem more volatile than ever.","text":"Small caps and emerging markets seem to continue to be strong. Hyper growth stocks seem more volatile than ever.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/322057510","repostId":1106238374,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":326444679,"gmtCreate":1615703184691,"gmtModify":1703492253411,"author":{"id":"3568716835362111","authorId":"3568716835362111","name":"Altas","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5385b9fc64af3e4ef5b80af63d31f16d","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3568716835362111","idStr":"3568716835362111"},"htmlText":"Pound&nbsp;","listText":"Pound&nbsp;","text":"Pound","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/326444679","repostId":1106238374,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":326558516,"gmtCreate":1615689251435,"gmtModify":1703492092520,"author":{"id":"3575867013914101","authorId":"3575867013914101","name":"BpchuA","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd3500e66cc249b4480fcc30d7cd6409","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3575867013914101","idStr":"3575867013914101"},"htmlText":"Bad bad bad....","listText":"Bad bad bad....","text":"Bad bad bad....","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/326558516","repostId":1106238374,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":326520257,"gmtCreate":1615687837379,"gmtModify":1703492073096,"author":{"id":"3559128077154435","authorId":"3559128077154435","name":"Whyeloon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44cc3fba457549bd6dbe449c8aa6c640","vip":1,"crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3559128077154435","idStr":"3559128077154435"},"htmlText":"Imo it will not reach 2% until year end&nbsp;","listText":"Imo it will not reach 2% until year end&nbsp;","text":"Imo it will not reach 2% until year end","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/326520257","repostId":1106238374,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":328446939,"gmtCreate":1615555545721,"gmtModify":1703490850506,"author":{"id":"3575416215572570","authorId":"3575416215572570","name":"WilliamTeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/665764fc5f5e89c64f2caa13df0fe1e3","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3575416215572570","idStr":"3575416215572570"},"htmlText":"Upbor down","listText":"Upbor down","text":"Upbor down","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/328446939","repostId":1106238374,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":328448474,"gmtCreate":1615555516098,"gmtModify":1703490850162,"author":{"id":"3575416215572570","authorId":"3575416215572570","name":"WilliamTeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/665764fc5f5e89c64f2caa13df0fe1e3","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3575416215572570","idStr":"3575416215572570"},"htmlText":"Up or down today","listText":"Up or down today","text":"Up or down today","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/328448474","repostId":1106238374,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":41,"commentSize":11,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.1","shortVersion":"4.29.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1106238374"}