Tesla Takes A Step Back

seekingalpha2021-06-15

Summary Company loses its second most important executive. Model S Plaid event falls a bit flat. Stock can't make meaningful move above key technical level. jetcityimage/iStock Editorial via Getty ...

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精彩评论

Aloysiusssss
2021-06-16
Aloysiusssss
Wow
Celcho
2021-06-16
Celcho
Come on tesla!! Pls like and comment
Tazjonz
2021-06-15
Tazjonz
Always rollercoaster luck
shawnyprawny
2021-06-15
shawnyprawny
why
Gpoh
2021-06-15
Gpoh
Not my Tesla
Qlee10
2021-06-15
Qlee10
oh no!!

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Fans and investors were not only looking to see the latest performance details, but were hoping for other big surprises from the automaker. Unfortunately, the company's event was pretty much a dud, and other news out during the week raised even more questions about the company's near term future.I'm more curious th","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"seekingalpha.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"translate_title":"特斯拉后退一步","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9},"content_text":"Summary\n\nCompany loses its second most important executive.\nModel S Plaid event falls a bit flat.\nStock can't make meaningful move above key technical level.\n\njetcityimage/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nLast week was supposed to be a good time for fans of Tesla (TSLA), with the company finally holding its meaningfully delayed Model S Plaid reveal event. Fans and investors were not only looking to see the latest performance details, but were hoping for other big surprises from the automaker. Unfortunately, the company's event was pretty much a dud, and other news out during the week raised even more questions about the company's near term future.\nPerhaps the biggest surprise to many was the departure of Jerome Guillen, the head of the heavy trucking division. Back in March, Guillen got that new title after formerly being the head of automotive. I had said then that this was a demotion, as he was leaving the bulk of Tesla's business for a niche segment with no revenues yet, but Tesla fans told me I was wrong. Well, now the company's second most important executive is definitely gone, leading many to question the future of the Tesla Semi.\nI'm more curious though if Guillen's departure raises a major question about Tesla's battery ambitions. The Semi was supposed to be here in 2019 with the new Roadster a year later, and neither are here yet. Both were dependent on Tesla's next generation battery, and just a week ago the company cancelled its Model S Plaid Plus. Elon Musk said that Plaid was just too good, but perhaps Tesla couldn't get the batteries needed to meet promised range specs? There have been questions for years about the numbers Tesla has given for the Semi, Roadster, etc. I should also note that while not totally related, the new Long Range Model S has seen its estimated range on the website configurator reduced from 412 to 405 miles since its soft launch a few months ago.\nThe second item to think about is what's happening with Tesla sales in China. As the graphic below shows, the first two months of Q2 2020 saw the lowest first two months sales in that country in the last three quarters. Yes, Tesla is exporting a large number of vehicles to other markets, more than 11,500 Model 3 units in May. However, the original plan for the Shanghai factory was to serve China only with affordable 3/Y units. More expensive variants were to be produced in the US, and Tesla can't even sell out China production in its home market. Delivery estimates in that country remain at 1-3 weeks for both the 3 and Y, and new reports suggest loan rates have been slashed if you take delivery this month, implying that demand just isn't where management expected it to be.\n(Source: Carsalesbase,and Moneyball Twitter)\nLater in the week, Tesla finally unveiled the new Model S Plaid after months of delays, at an event that was more hype than anything else. A few things stated by the CEO didn't match up with the graphics behind him during the presentation, and it was reported earlier in the day that the vehicle can't even do the promised 200mph at this point. If you're in the market for a $130,000 vehicle that you only want to take to the track, however, then maybe this is for you.\nThe Model S event was not a great show for electric vehicles overall in my opinion. Elon Musk boasted that the Plaid can get 187 miles of range with 15 minutes of charging, but a decent family gas-powered sedan can get 700 miles of highway range in a 5 minute gas stop. This is not going to be a high volume vehicle that will add anything meaningful to Tesla's financials, especially as the high end EV segment continues to become more crowded. Remember, this event was only after numerous delays, and Tesla's Model S page linked above still shows June availability for this new vehicle. Elon Musk highlighting some new features that will eventually help if Tesla solves its full self-driving ambitions, but that timeline remains uncertain.\nOne other item that some investors continue to fret about is Tesla's Bitcoin position. With the cryptocurrency falling tremendously from its all-time high, the company could have left more than a billion dollars on the table by not selling it all already. While that doesn't represent a large portion of the company's cash, it would have made a nice profit, and now the position is getting closer to facing impairment charges. In the end, the concern is that the Bitcoin position takes some focus away from management and has been a major distraction for investors.\nLast week, Tesla shares finished up a little more than $10. A gain of almost 2% may not have been satisfying for the bulls given the company's big event. However, I'm more disappointed in the stock because the 10-Year US Treasury bond yield dropped by 10 basis points last week, which should have really helped Tesla shares and other big growth names to rally. Also, the stock has still not been able to make a major move away from its 200-day moving average (purple line) as seen in the chart below. The gap between that long term trend line and its shorter term technical counterpart is now less than $44 after peaking at nearly $320 earlier this year. This means that the dreaded death cross is more and more likely to happen in the coming weeks.\n(Source: Yahoo! Finance)\nIn the end, last week probably wasn't the one that Tesla fans and investors were really hoping for. The company lost its second most important executive, which puts into question progress on the Semi and other new battery related programs. Additionally, China sales haven't progressed much on their own, definitely not to the point where that factory only supplies to that country. Late in the week, the Model S event was not very exciting, and did little to energize the stock. At the same time, investors still fret over the Bitcoin position, while shares remain unable to make a solid move above their long term moving average. It probably will be a few weeks until we get a new catalyst to watch, with the Q2 production and delivery report scheduled for early July.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":160609949,"gmtCreate":1623789759981,"gmtModify":1634028273506,"author":{"id":"3574995457885601","authorId":"3574995457885601","authorIdStr":"3574995457885601","name":"Aloysiusssss","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f230247b5c158175fbf135e45a7dd8a","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3574995457885601"},"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160609949","repostId":1106218942,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":160895237,"gmtCreate":1623778159229,"gmtModify":1634028335539,"author":{"id":"3582035602252461","authorId":"3582035602252461","authorIdStr":"3582035602252461","name":"Celcho","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ce50de8ff49840d341d464b350c0e13","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3582035602252461"},"htmlText":"Come on tesla!! Pls like and comment","listText":"Come on tesla!! Pls like and comment","text":"Come on tesla!! Pls like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160895237","repostId":1106218942,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":187788476,"gmtCreate":1623764545595,"gmtModify":1634028709279,"author":{"id":"3578567927092479","authorId":"3578567927092479","authorIdStr":"3578567927092479","name":"Tazjonz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f84e5692e6809277d605d8442cdc7efa","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3578567927092479"},"htmlText":"Always rollercoaster luck","listText":"Always rollercoaster luck","text":"Always rollercoaster luck","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/187788476","repostId":1106218942,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":187452693,"gmtCreate":1623762947512,"gmtModify":1634028765681,"author":{"id":"3575333732561920","authorId":"3575333732561920","authorIdStr":"3575333732561920","name":"shawnyprawny","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3575333732561920"},"htmlText":"why","listText":"why","text":"why","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/187452693","repostId":1106218942,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":187295716,"gmtCreate":1623754639035,"gmtModify":1634028984680,"author":{"id":"3569671563535771","authorId":"3569671563535771","authorIdStr":"3569671563535771","name":"Gpoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee7c8d4a29fb782635166acf40cbe5b0","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3569671563535771"},"htmlText":"Not my Tesla&nbsp;","listText":"Not my Tesla&nbsp;","text":"Not my Tesla","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/187295716","repostId":1106218942,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":187205231,"gmtCreate":1623754297423,"gmtModify":1634028993878,"author":{"id":"3559003590411925","authorId":"3559003590411925","authorIdStr":"3559003590411925","name":"Qlee10","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/044cc5835b2fd80d79e0c6674a31d0c1","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3559003590411925"},"htmlText":"&nbsp;oh no!!&nbsp;","listText":"&nbsp;oh no!!&nbsp;","text":"oh no!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/187205231","repostId":1106218942,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":36,"commentSize":28,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.28.1","shortVersion":"4.28.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1106218942"}