Goldman Outlines Scenarios for Omicron’s Impact on Global Growth

Bloomberg2021-11-29

Sees two downside scenarios, one ‘false alarm’ and one upside Too soon to change economic forecasts as impact still unclear Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists set out four scenarios for the ...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

claratan
2021-11-29
claratan
Wow 👏
- Anniet:
  ok
55f05e17
2021-11-29
55f05e17
Testing
- JASLIM:
  ok
MrHuattt
2021-11-29
MrHuattt
H
- MrHuattt:
  I
KBchan
2021-11-29
KBchan
Please like

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1106111099?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"","is_english":true,"pubTime":"2021-11-29 21:47","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"1106111099","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"Goldman Outlines Scenarios for Omicron’s Impact on Global Growth","media":"Bloomberg","content":"<div>\n<p>Sees two downside scenarios, one ‘false alarm’ and one upside\nToo soon to change economic forecasts as impact still unclear\n\nGoldman Sachs Group Inc. economists set out four scenarios for the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-29/goldman-outlines-scenarios-for-omicron-s-impact-on-global-growth\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1584095487587","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Goldman Outlines Scenarios for Omicron’s Impact on Global Growth</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Outlines Scenarios for Omicron’s Impact on Global Growth\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-11-29 21:47 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-29/goldman-outlines-scenarios-for-omicron-s-impact-on-global-growth><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Sees two downside scenarios, one ‘false alarm’ and one upside\nToo soon to change economic forecasts as impact still unclear\n\nGoldman Sachs Group Inc. economists set out four scenarios for the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-29/goldman-outlines-scenarios-for-omicron-s-impact-on-global-growth\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":".DJI","symbol_name":"道琼斯","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-29/goldman-outlines-scenarios-for-omicron-s-impact-on-global-growth","article_id":"1106111099","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1106111099","pubTimestamp":1638193630,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"lsy1584095487587","name":"Bloomberg"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Sees two downside scenarios, one ‘false alarm’ and one upside\nToo soon to change economic forecasts ","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"bloomberg.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"translate_title":"高盛概述Omicron对全球增长的影响","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9},"content_text":"Sees two downside scenarios, one ‘false alarm’ and one upside\nToo soon to change economic forecasts as impact still unclear\n\nGoldman Sachs Group Inc. economists set out four scenarios for the potential impact on global economic growth from a new coronavirus variant, while adding that it’s too early to adjust their forecasts given it still isn’t clear which is likely to transpire.\n\nDownside Scenario: Omicron transmits faster than predecessor, delta. This results in first-quarter global growth slowing to a 2% quarter-on-quarter annual rate, or roughly 2.5 percentage points below Goldman’s current forecast. For 2022 as a whole, the global economy still expands by 4.2%, or 0.4 percentage points below current forecast, while the inflation outlook is “ambiguous”\nSevere Downside: Both the disease severity and immunity against hospitalizations are substantially worse than for delta. Global economic growth takes a more substantial hit, while “the inflation impact is again ambiguous”\nFalse Alarm: Omicron spreads slower than delta and has no significant effect on global growth and inflation; and\nUpside: Omicron is slightly more transmissible, but causes much less severe disease. In this speculative “normalization” scenario, a net reduction in disease burden leaves global growth higher than Goldman’s baseline. Inflation is likely lower as the rebalancing of demand, and the recovery in goods and labor supply accelerate\n\n“The upshot is that omicron could have sizable growth effects, but that the range of medical and therefore economic outcomes remains unusually wide,” Goldman economists led by Jan Hatzius said in a research note.\n“Given this and the possibility of a ‘false alarm,’ we are not making omicron-related changes to our growth, inflation, and monetary policy forecasts until the likelihood of these scenarios has become somewhat clearer,” they said.\nWhat comes next is likely be dictated by what scientists discover about the new Covid-19 variant, including how resistant it is to vaccines and how much more transmissible it is than the delta variant, which raged in recent months without sending economies back toward recessions.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":600731159,"gmtCreate":1638196913624,"gmtModify":1638196914680,"author":{"id":"3573731928321338","authorId":"3573731928321338","name":"claratan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c6bbdac9048ff2e4b740f272576e2be","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Wow 👏&nbsp;","listText":"Wow 👏&nbsp;","text":"Wow 👏","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/600731159","repostId":1106111099,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6771771,"gmtCreate":1638197057333,"gmtModify":1638197057430,"authorId":3579570110340350,"author":{"id":3579570110340350,"authorId":3579570110340350,"name":"Anniet","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f443f29823834bbea85dd67baf5dfda","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":600731159,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<u>ok</u>","text":"<u>ok</u>","html":"<u>ok</u>"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":600703966,"gmtCreate":1638195484476,"gmtModify":1638195484841,"author":{"id":"3561606993964516","authorId":"3561606993964516","name":"55f05e17","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Testing&nbsp;","listText":"Testing&nbsp;","text":"Testing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/600703966","repostId":1106111099,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6771532,"gmtCreate":1638196316061,"gmtModify":1638196316165,"authorId":3569395672897883,"author":{"id":3569395672897883,"authorId":3569395672897883,"name":"JASLIM","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":600703966,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"ok","text":"ok","html":"ok"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":600709679,"gmtCreate":1638195411841,"gmtModify":1638195412310,"author":{"id":"4089116574465250","authorId":"4089116574465250","name":"MrHuattt","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"H","listText":"H","text":"H","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/600709679","repostId":1106111099,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6771317,"gmtCreate":1638195416108,"gmtModify":1638195416193,"authorId":4089116574465250,"author":{"id":4089116574465250,"authorId":4089116574465250,"name":"MrHuattt","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":600709679,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<u>I</u>","text":"<u>I</u>","html":"<u>I</u>"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":600476890,"gmtCreate":1638194535788,"gmtModify":1638194655453,"author":{"id":"3582453112692311","authorId":"3582453112692311","name":"KBchan","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Please like&nbsp;","listText":"Please like&nbsp;","text":"Please like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/600476890","repostId":1106111099,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":63,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.25.1","shortVersion":"4.25.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1106111099"}