美股一夜变天，背后有四大因素在推动

金十数据2020-09-04

作者：佬郭周四晚，美股市场一夜变天，从狂欢变成恐慌。不断创新高的美股突然大跌，而且还牵动了其他资产。下面我们来看看昨晚各类资产的表现。美股方面，标普500指数收跌3.51%，报3455.07点；纳指收跌4.96%，报11458.10点；道指收跌2.78%，报28292.73点。科技股被认为是这次美股大跌的“罪魁祸首”，苹果、特斯拉等一众科技股集体暴跌。截至收盘，苹果跌8.01%，特斯拉大跌...

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精彩评论

Rfb
2020-09-05
Rfb
终于在长时间45度上涨线上进行了转折向下的回调模式了，等待下周进一步的向下调整。
Victory1688
2020-09-04
Victory1688
看来要变盘了
小脑斧呀
2020-09-04
小脑斧呀
我觉得是回调，不能低估资本家的操盘能力，不像癌股那样十年横在三千点
- 无敌螃蟹怪:
  稳住就行了别慌
杰西利弗莫尔1亿目标
2020-09-04
杰西利弗莫尔1亿目标
这是人为操作吗？
灞波儿奔
2020-09-04
灞波儿奔
事后诸葛亮，之前猪一样。
形态市值热点
2020-09-04
形态市值热点
问题出在特斯拉和苹果双双送转在同一天，众所周知，送转结束属于利好兑现，都是要下跌的。这一点中外都一样。
- Jehovah:
  昨天并不是送转日，送转日早了好几天

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Garnry）表示，Robinhood等交易平台刺激了期权等衍生品交易活跃度，苹果和特斯拉等股票的看涨期权大幅增长，做市商有时被迫购买标的股票以对冲头寸。当股票价格大幅下跌时，做市商就会选择平仓，这引发了市场抛售。昨晚美股大跌时，投资者们也突然从大量买入看涨期权转向恐慌性买入看跌期权。获利回吐从基本面上来看，并没有驱动此次美股大跌的因素。经济数据未出现显著恶化，美联储政策也没有发生变化，因此，美股大跌不太可能成为市场深度调整的开始，更多是一轮强劲上涨后的回调。8月下旬，标普500指数曾跌至2017年以来的最低点。这表明标普500指数与成分股之间的表现存在差异。因此，最近恐慌指数VIX波动率上升是由个股波动性上升导致，与系统性风险无关。此外，美股的表现与其年初至今的回报率呈负相关，这表明暴跌更像是获利回吐导致。板块轮动，科技股被抛售Vital Knowledge分析师Adam Crisafulli表示，部分投资者大规模抛售科技股并买入此前没怎么上涨的股票，这使前期涨势落后的股票受益，而科技股遭到暴击。Oanda高级市场分析师Ed Moya认为，由于国际关系愈发紧张，因为科技企业可能会因潜在的进口税上涨而遭受最沉重的打击，因此投资者们将资金从科技股转移出去。因此，昨晚纳指受到的打击最严重的。接下来，随着持续的板块轮动，资金可能会转入周期性股票，而且经济持续复苏也让周期性股票也有望受益。BTIG LLC的朱利安•伊曼纽尔（Julian Emanuel）表示，如果你的投资组合中有太多科技股，现在是时候开始从获利股中减持一些，然后重新配置到金融股上了。他认为，美联储已经改变了游戏规则，金融最终将在2021年引领市场走高。财政刺激前景不明投资者一直押注共和党和民主党会在本月晚些时候就疫情纾困财政刺激计划达成协议，为美国消费者和企业提供更多支持，但参议院多数党领袖麦康奈尔本周三对国会能否在未来几周达成刺激法案的前景有所担忧。对国会议员们是否会出台进一步财政刺激措施的疑虑，可能是令投资者灰心。Principal Global Investors首席策略师沙阿（Seema Shah）也表示，投资者对美国政府财政刺激计划期望颇高。如果美国国会不这么做，投资者将重新审视美国经济增长前景，这将打压美股的看涨情绪，加剧股市波动。后市怎么看？对于美股后市，目前分析师们站成了两派，一方认为这次大跌只是一次正常回调；而较为悲观的一派则认为，美股将迎来“明斯基时刻”。乐观的一派认为，美股重演3月份的深度下跌的可能性并不大，首先，疫情较当时已经有所好转，而且经济也已经开始缓慢复苏，美国的就业情况也显示出乐观迹象。Instinet执行董事Frank Cappelleri表示，他们预计现在美股不会再次崩盘。标普500指数已经连续上涨了10来天，并且刚刚取得了两个月来的最大涨幅，它是时候经历一段时间的回调了。纽约贝西默信托公司（Bessemer Trust）投资主管麦克唐纳（Holly MacDonald）表示，此次抛售意味着市场在某种程度上回归至更正常的情况，而且考虑到8月的涨幅，此次下跌并非完全出乎意料。亿万富翁对冲基金巨头比尔-阿克曼（Bill Ackman）周四被问到美股暴跌是否是股市一片黑暗的开始时表示：“这当然不是终结的开始，但我想说我们正处于美国历史上最不确定的时期之一。市场不喜欢不确定性。”阿克曼解释说，即将举行的美国大选及其在美国各地造成的分裂只会在未来几周和几个月内造成更多不确定性。虽然整体上市场下跌的幅度无疑是陡峭的，但考虑到自3月份市场暴跌以来美股经历了“多么强劲”的反弹，就不会对此感到意外了。相反，RW咨询公司市场策略师Ron William的观点则非常悲观。他认为，美股可能正处于急剧崩溃的边缘，面临所谓的“明斯基时刻”，可能会重新回到3月份的低点。所谓“明斯基时刻”，即市场在经过不可持续的牛市之后突然崩溃。他列举了多个可能导致美股崩盘的因素，首先是科技巨头推动的股市上涨不可持续。尽管美国经济正深受疫情冲击，但FAANG科技五巨头的股价却一直在持续上涨。但除了科技股外，按照平均加权基础计算，拥有许多“僵尸公司”的罗素2000小盘股指数表示并不出色。此外，William表示，美股市场的流动性与波动性也都出现了即将转变的迹象。随着市场的上涨，追踪标准普尔500指数的交易所买卖基金（ETF）的流动性创历史新低，而衡量市场恐慌程度的CBOE波动率指数（VIX）也非同寻常的飙升，这些都显示了潜在的暴跌风险。William指出，“明斯基时刻”可能会使美股暴跌20%至30%，甚至更多，令美股重新测试3月份的低点，从而导致当前的V形复苏变成W型复苏。此外，技术面上也出现继续下跌的信号，纳指已经连续超100天交投在50日均线上方，每当该指数连续约100天高于50日均线时，都会大幅下跌，周四该指数盘中就跌超5%，而这可能是更大幅度回调的开始。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":978561496,"gmtCreate":1599280515115,"gmtModify":1703818313591,"author":{"id":"3524230072128606","authorId":"3524230072128606","name":"Rfb","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/142d7c2d1647e97a77b4fba687d57901","vip":1,"crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3524230072128606","authorIdStr":"3524230072128606"},"htmlText":"终于在长时间45度上涨线上进行了转折向下的回调模式了，等待下周进一步的向下调整。","listText":"终于在长时间45度上涨线上进行了转折向下的回调模式了，等待下周进一步的向下调整。","text":"终于在长时间45度上涨线上进行了转折向下的回调模式了，等待下周进一步的向下调整。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/978561496","repostId":1105929064,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":978686064,"gmtCreate":1599218052758,"gmtModify":1704222047991,"author":{"id":"3554543753250021","authorId":"3554543753250021","name":"Victory1688","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6198a1f9650cf49bbb49ecd27d0876f2","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3554543753250021","authorIdStr":"3554543753250021"},"htmlText":"看来要变盘了","listText":"看来要变盘了","text":"看来要变盘了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/978686064","repostId":1105929064,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":978611997,"gmtCreate":1599213790019,"gmtModify":1704222032526,"author":{"id":"3522719935359345","authorId":"3522719935359345","name":"小脑斧呀","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a94a33cb5a0ed668e01d79aeaaaae83","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3522719935359345","authorIdStr":"3522719935359345"},"htmlText":"我觉得是回调，不能低估资本家的操盘能力，不像癌股那样十年横在三千点","listText":"我觉得是回调，不能低估资本家的操盘能力，不像癌股那样十年横在三千点","text":"我觉得是回调，不能低估资本家的操盘能力，不像癌股那样十年横在三千点","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/978611997","repostId":1105929064,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":2830589,"gmtCreate":1599220143206,"gmtModify":1599221316845,"authorId":3562072486471593,"author":{"id":3562072486471593,"idStr":"3562072486471593","authorId":3562072486471593,"name":"无敌螃蟹怪","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":978611997,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"稳住就行了别慌","text":"稳住就行了别慌","html":"稳住就行了别慌"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":978603410,"gmtCreate":1599203893330,"gmtModify":1704221990876,"author":{"id":"3503690422459425","authorId":"3503690422459425","name":"杰西利弗莫尔1亿目标","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/088532eac890f961cd0f3578b19e001f","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63f4db5a25402cce463d975948213b15","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3503690422459425","authorIdStr":"3503690422459425"},"htmlText":"这是人为操作吗？","listText":"这是人为操作吗？","text":"这是人为操作吗？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/978603410","repostId":1105929064,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":978844423,"gmtCreate":1599198477462,"gmtModify":1704221971459,"author":{"id":"3480736324300210","authorId":"3480736324300210","name":"灞波儿奔","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3480736324300210","authorIdStr":"3480736324300210"},"htmlText":"事后诸葛亮，之前猪一样。","listText":"事后诸葛亮，之前猪一样。","text":"事后诸葛亮，之前猪一样。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/978844423","repostId":1105929064,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":978844549,"gmtCreate":1599198370781,"gmtModify":1704221970590,"author":{"id":"3558142396072078","authorId":"3558142396072078","name":"形态市值热点","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fcaaf0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