Starbucks - Too Hot To Handle

seekingalpha2021-06-28

Summary Starbucks continues to be the leading global coffee franchise across the globe. The company has been hit hard by the pandemic, but the company continues to open stores to drive further growth...

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精彩评论

Terence晓李
2021-06-28
Terence晓李
Hot Coffee are too hot to handle!
FloSim
2021-06-28
FloSim
👍🏼
Toadsage
2021-06-28
Toadsage
Please like and comment
- Terence晓李:
  Hot Coffee are too hot to handle!
Pinkmartini
2021-06-28
Pinkmartini
👍
BeautyTrade
2021-06-28
BeautyTrade
No worries. This share is keep for long term investment.
- Maybl:
  👍
- gl8089:
  agree
Medha
2021-06-28
Medha
☕☕

发表看法

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Shares of the leading coffee player peaked at nearly $100 ahead of the pandemic and after an initial move lower, shares have seen a very steady recovery as they currently trade at $113 per share, just 5% from recent and all-time-highs.\nWhile 2021 is set to match 2019 in terms of the earnings power and growth has returned in a convincing way, I still think that despite the undisputed quality of the franchise, valuations are too high to see any appeal here.\nPandemic - A Hit, And Savior\nStarbucks was early to recognize the impact of the pandemic as it has sizeable Chinese operations of course, and with the pandemic breaking out a few months earlier than was the case in the US and Europe, the impact was early felt.\nStarbucks's second quarter fiscal results, corresponding to the first quarter of the calendar year of 2020, saw sales fall 5%. The third quarter results showed the real impact of the pandemic with sales down 38% as no amount of cost control was able to maintain profitability, as the company posted a sizeable, yet at the same time very manageable loss on the back of the very challenging conditions at the time.\nOn the back of the summer reopening in many Western nations last year, revenues recovered in a big way, down just 8% in the final quarter of the fiscal year. After the dismal second quarter results, full year revenues were down 11% to $19.2 billion, yet earnings took a far larger beating with operating earnings down more than 60%, to just over $1.5 billion.\nIn fact, almost all the absolute decline in revenues translated into a one-on-one impact on the operating income line amidst higher restructuring costs, stable, or slightly increasing depreciation charges, and store expenses up a bit amidst the many modifications and safety measures taken.\nNet debt stood at $11.5 billion by the end of the fiscal year. That is quite a bit after the company posted adjusted EBITDA of around $6.0 billion in the fiscal year of 2019, but the EBITDA number came in much closer to $3.5 billion.\nBy the time these results were announced back in October of last year, shares had rebounded to the high-eighties already, which translated both into a high earnings multiple based on the adjusted profits of $1.17 per share, and even on the adjusted earnings of $2.83 per share a year earlier. Even based on the 2019 earnings, shares traded at a 30 times multiple.\nA Big Recovery\nAt the start of 2021 the company posted first quarter results for its fiscal year with sales down more than 6% as the company was not yet lapping the impact of the pandemic. The company reiterated the full year guidance, calling for sales at a midpoint of $28.5 billion with earnings seen at a midpoint of $2.80 per share, although the fact that this calendar year counts 53 weeks, makes that the guidance assumes a ten cent boost from that fact.\nThe second quarter results revealed 8% revenue growth, which is quite comforting as Western economies were gradually opening up again. Moreover, this is not the case of easily comparisons, as second quarter revenues were down just 5% in the second quarter of 2020, so we actually see growth now vs the quarterly period in 2019. On the back of the solid results, the company has hiked the full year sales guidance to a midpoint of $28.9 billion. Moreover, the midpoint of the earnings guidance has been hiked by fifteen cents to $2.95 per share.\nNet debt is down to roughly $10 billion after these relatively softer first two quarters of the year. With net earnings seen at around $3.5 billion this year, and after adding back approximately $1.5 billion in depreciation expenses, as well as a few hundred million in interest and taxes, EBITDA should match or surpass the $6 billion EBITDA number from 2019. In that sense, leverage is very modest, and certainly no concern.\nBased on the current share price of $113 per share, valuations come in around 38 times earnings seen this year. However, the earnings rate based on the second half of the year is seen around $2 per share, which might imply potential for earnings to jump towards $4 per share next year. Such earnings power reduces expectations to 28 times forward earnings. Based on that number, the multiple is still elevated, as I realize that it will take a year before this might be realized.\nI guess the reasons mentioned above are likely the considerations why Mr. Ackman from Pershing Square sold out of the stock earlier this year. While the $3 earnings per share number for this year is conformed, and there is a real roadmap for earnings of $4 per share next year if the pandemic fades, I fail to see real triggers from here.\nBased on such earnings power I think that valuations certainly look full here, too full for me to see appeal, although I have no doubts whatsoever on the quality and long term potential of this very high quality franchise.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":150968165,"gmtCreate":1624883156857,"gmtModify":1631890257535,"author":{"id":"3581927915574260","authorId":"3581927915574260","name":"Terence晓李","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05e8d9808cf14bb44e2fa7aa64dbe611","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3581927915574260","authorIdStr":"3581927915574260"},"htmlText":"Hot Coffee are too hot to handle!","listText":"Hot Coffee are too hot to handle!","text":"Hot Coffee are too hot to handle!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/150968165","repostId":1103137872,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":150044058,"gmtCreate":1624878557974,"gmtModify":1633947621936,"author":{"id":"4087905043794850","authorId":"4087905043794850","name":"FloSim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/114fe39524bda74e9d23b5e3b1b86725","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4087905043794850","authorIdStr":"4087905043794850"},"htmlText":"👍🏼","listText":"👍🏼","text":"👍🏼","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/150044058","repostId":1103137872,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":127767998,"gmtCreate":1624869975114,"gmtModify":1631893386310,"author":{"id":"3554685603709368","authorId":"3554685603709368","name":"Toadsage","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dbf4f4bb2099c66e47242c50e0acbc8","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3554685603709368","authorIdStr":"3554685603709368"},"htmlText":"Please like and comment","listText":"Please like and comment","text":"Please like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/127767998","repostId":1103137872,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5053160,"gmtCreate":1624883166526,"gmtModify":1635243019782,"authorId":3581927915574260,"author":{"id":3581927915574260,"idStr":"3581927915574260","authorId":3581927915574260,"name":"Terence晓李","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05e8d9808cf14bb44e2fa7aa64dbe611","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":127767998,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Hot Coffee are too hot to handle!","text":"Hot Coffee are too hot to handle!","html":"Hot Coffee are too hot to handle!"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":127712834,"gmtCreate":1624868880728,"gmtModify":1631891361240,"author":{"id":"3585729847029660","authorId":"3585729847029660","name":"Pinkmartini","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25f5b3287ef2fcae826d428294e908e8","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3585729847029660","authorIdStr":"3585729847029660"},"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/127712834","repostId":1103137872,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":127711682,"gmtCreate":1624868723046,"gmtModify":1633947735993,"author":{"id":"3584182854667058","authorId":"3584182854667058","name":"BeautyTrade","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63f8e238d1760fe32b24660344219105","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3584182854667058","authorIdStr":"3584182854667058"},"htmlText":"No worries. This share is keep for long term investment.","listText":"No worries. This share is keep for long term investment.","text":"No worries. This share is keep for long term investment.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/127711682","repostId":1103137872,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5050873,"gmtCreate":1624869891123,"gmtModify":1635243222601,"authorId":4087686543844860,"author":{"id":4087686543844860,"idStr":"4087686543844860","authorId":4087686543844860,"name":"Maybl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8528a3b3e7bad2aa55b4c86ab0e2cedc","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":127711682,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"👍","text":"👍","html":"👍"},{"id":5052322,"gmtCreate":1624878246041,"gmtModify":1635243092827,"authorId":3564973527542193,"author":{"id":3564973527542193,"idStr":"3564973527542193","authorId":3564973527542193,"name":"gl8089","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":127711682,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<u>agree</u>","text":"<u>agree</u>","html":"<u>agree</u>"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":127445548,"gmtCreate":1624866662584,"gmtModify":1633947769093,"author":{"id":"3582027145455201","authorId":"3582027145455201","name":"Medha","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3582027145455201","authorIdStr":"3582027145455201"},"htmlText":"☕☕","listText":"☕☕","text":"☕☕","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/127445548","repostId":1103137872,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":50,"commentSize":13,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.3","shortVersion":"4.29.3","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1103137872"}