The End Of The Pandemic Is A Stimulus In And Of Itself

seekingalpha2021-02-16

Summary This is a weekly series focused on analyzing the previous week’s economic data releases. The objective is to concentrate on leading indicators of economic activity to determine whether the ...

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精彩评论

超级白
2021-02-17
超级白
Rubbish article
- 388ef7fc:
  yes
Skurniaw1
2021-02-17
Skurniaw1
Useful article [开心]
JeanChien
2021-02-16
JeanChien
Hopefully
幸运宝宝88
2021-02-16
幸运宝宝88
Good
- 388ef7fc:
  nice
Jcjn
2021-02-16
Jcjn
Like me please
- naan:
  like u
- Jcjn:
  Thankew
LeeWan
2021-02-16
LeeWan
Good

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While we need to continue providing economic aid to those small businesses that are struggling due to economic restrictions and the unemployed who are out of work as a result, another economic aid package twice the size of the last one arriving in March or April may be more than is needed. The ramifications of too much stimulus could be a rise in inflation and interest rates that undermines the ongoing bull market in stocks. That has been my greatest concern this year.\nConsumer Price Index\nThe Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% in January and 1.4% over the past year. Higher gasoline prices (+7.4%) and food costs (+3.8%) are what is driving the annual increase. The core rate, which excludes food and energy, was also up 1.4% over the past year, which is a deceleration from the 1.6% rate the month before. The CPI is still well below pre-pandemic levels of 2.5% a year ago, but the economy has yet to fully reopen. At the same time, pent-up demand for services is growing, as consumers build savings at a rapid rate. The new found stock market wealth is another form of fuel for more spending. I expect the CPI to surpass the pre-pandemic level of 2.5% before year end.\nSource: BLS.gov\nJanuary’s inflation data provides us with the real (inflation adjusted) average hourly earnings growth number, which declined 0.2% for the month, but has risen 3.8% over the past year. The length of the workweek has increased 2.4%, resulting in real average weekly earnings surging 6.3% over the past year. It is important to note that millions of low-wage jobs in the service sector have been excluded from these numbers, which inflates the averages, but millions of those who are not working are receiving more than they would on the job through enhanced unemployment benefits. That is why total income is above pre-pandemic levels, despite approximately 10 million more workers being unemployed.\nSource: BLS\nConsumer Sentiment\nThe University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey for January surprisingly slipped from 79.0 to 76.2 in January. This was predominately due to households with income below $75,000 feeling less optimistic about their financial futures, which is surprising given the likelihood that more fiscal stimulus is on its way in the coming months. Considering there are 10 million jobs that have yet to be recovered and most are lower-wage positions in the service industry, this downturn in sentiment from lower-income households is understandable. I do expect to see better sentiment numbers from this demographic as more Americans are vaccinated, the pandemic wanes, and the economy continues to reopen.\n\nSmall Business Optimism Index\nSmall business optimism has yet to recover from the plunge it took at the end of last year that resulted in lowest level for the NFIB index since last May. The index fell from 95.9 in December to 95.0 in January, despite the rapid decline in new cases and hospitalizations since the beginning of the year, which has yet to translate into a broader reopening of the economy. That is what it will take to lift confidence. I suspect as vaccinations continue to increase and the weather warms, business confidence will improve dramatically.\n\nInitial Unemployment Claims\nThe total number of weekly initial unemployment claims remains stubbornly above one million. While 793,000 filed under state programs, which was down 19,000 from the week before, another 334,524 filed through federal pandemic programs, bringing the total to more than 1.1 million.\nSource: MarketWatch\nContinuing claims at the state level fell by 145,000 to a seasonally adjusted 4.5 million, but millions who have seen those benefits run out are switching to the pandemic-relief programs, which is why total continuing claims swelled to more than 20 million again for the week ending January 23.\nSource: Department of Labor\nConclusion\nAs the pace of vaccinations has increased to approximately 1.6 million per day, the number of new cases of coronavirus across the country has plunged to less than 100,000 per day with hospitalizations and deaths declining as well. The light at the end of the coronavirus tunnel is visible. Advocates of the Biden administration’s $1.9 trillion stimulus proposal are pointing to today’s unemployment claims figures and the tepid rate of inflation in the most recent CPI report as reasons we need nearly $2 trillion in additional economic aid, but claims are likely to plunge this spring when the economy more fully reopens. At the same time, pent-up consumer demand for services in combination with a soaring savings rate and surging stock market is likely to lead to a pre-pandemic inflation rate of 2.5% or more.\n\nInflation is a lagging indicator, which peaks well after the rate of economic growth peaks during an expansion. Therefore, using the rate of inflation today as a measure of how strong the economic recovery will be tomorrow is like driving a car while staring in the rear-view mirror. If that car is the economy, you will crash it if you drive too fast. This is what I see happening as the Biden administration puts the pedal to the medal with a package that includes $593.5 billion in total benefits for American households, most of which is comprised of $1,400 checks and tax credits. Expectations for growth, spending and private investment are ratcheting up as a result. Inflation will follow, and long-term interest rates will rise in anticipation of that inflation. How high rates have to rise before they prick the bubble in financial assets is impossible to know, but I think preparing for that inevitable event is a prudent strategy right now.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":385180305,"gmtCreate":1613522584307,"gmtModify":1634553333740,"author":{"id":"3569976416564978","authorId":"3569976416564978","authorIdStr":"3569976416564978","name":"超级白","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0986d8374c47915334820b2ded4f195f","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3569976416564978"},"htmlText":"Rubbish article","listText":"Rubbish article","text":"Rubbish 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