Sea Limited: It's All About Expectations And Discount Rate

Seeking Alpha2021-09-17

Summary Since our first valuation of the stock, the price has gone up more than 20%. At that time, we considered the company to be fairly valued in the best scenario. Our approach now is similar but ...

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精彩评论

Tanyl
2021-09-19
Tanyl
SE all time high
- Guardian_J:
  go go
Vettelpole
2021-09-18
Vettelpole
Really brilliant article for equity analysis
Troytan
2021-09-18
Troytan
Absolutely, investors expectation play a big roller In the price action
- MonaMaMa:
  the appropriate beta in msci view is Singapore as it ratchets up sea Ltd weightings in msci spore index. investor investing in sea may be confused
Mtan23
2021-09-17
Mtan23
Good read
- CPCat:
  yes. we'll written.
Minion
2021-09-17
Minion
Like pls
edelyu
2021-09-17
edelyu
Wow
- ahleemama:
  buy

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At that time, we considered the company to be fairly valued in the best scenario.\nOur approach now is similar but ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4455687-sea-limited-its-all-about-expectations-and-discount-rate\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"SE","symbol_name":"Sea Ltd","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4455687-sea-limited-its-all-about-expectations-and-discount-rate","article_id":"1102595384","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1102595384","pubTimestamp":1631879657,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":null,"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Summary\n\nSince our first valuation of the stock, the price has gone up more than 20%. At that time, ","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"seekingalpha.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"SE":"Sea Ltd"},"translate_title":"Sea Limited：一切都是关于预期和折扣率","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"SE":0.9},"content_text":"Summary\n\nSince our first valuation of the stock, the price has gone up more than 20%. At that time, we considered the company to be fairly valued in the best scenario.\nOur approach now is similar but instead of stretching consensus, we rely on it and check what is the implied discount rate which delivers the current share price.\nWe have tried to assess the most appropriate discount rate and we believe there is enough evidence of a current mismatch between current valuation and the appropriate discount rate.\nThe main risks we see are the expectations around Garena and its embedded valuation and the regulatory risks on its marketplace which might lead to new taxes in SE markets.\n\nAstragal/iStock via Getty Images\nInvestment thesis\nWhen we first looked at Sea Limited (SE) in April 2021, the stock was trading at USD 274 per share, and we considered the stock almost fairly valued in the best of all possible scenarios. Since then, the stock has raised a further 20% and is trading at more than USD 330 per share. We are now reviewing our valuation approach, which in April was based on stressing consensus to check to which extent it should have been stretched to match the market cap at that time. Our approach now is similar, but instead of stretching consensus, we rely on it and check the implied discount rate that delivers the current share price. Instead of working on estimates, we are working on the discount rate.\nWe have tried to assess the most appropriate discount rate, and we believe there is enough evidence of a current mismatch between the current valuation and the appropriate discount rate. In our view, the discount rate which justifies the current share price is far lower than the most appropriate one. The main risks we see are the expectations around Garena and its embedded valuation and the regulatory risks on its marketplace, which might lead to new taxes in SE markets.\nRevenue guidance for 2021 was raised after Q2.\nIn Q1, management guided Garena’s revenues between USD 4.3 bln and USD 4.5 bln (38% YoY growth assuming guidance midpoint). After Q2, the guidance has been lifted to USD 4.5 bln and USD 4.7 bln (44% YoY growth assuming guidance midpoint).\nShopee revenues in Q1 were guided between $4.5 bln and $4.7 bln (112% YoY growth assuming guidance midpoint). After Q2, the guidance has been lifted to $4.7 bln and $4.9 bln (121% YoY growth assuming guidance midpoint).\nIt is worth noting in the table below that, while consensus has fairly factored higher FY21 revenues guidance on both Garena and Shopee, EBITDA compared to April 2021 has been downward revised at a consolidated level not only in 2021. EBITDA has been cut from 2021 to 2026.\nIn other words, revenue growth leads to lower operating margins over the next five years, but the equity value is growing. EBITDA from 2026 onward is higher than previously expected (USD 866 mln in 2030), and thus Terminal Value is driving equity value higher.\nBasically, the consensus is shifting towards terminal value, which carries higher risk, but market valuation is increasing.\nSource: Bloomberg data as of September 13, 2021\nValuation approach (Sea – USD 330 per share as of September 13, 2021)Trying to assess the discount rate\nThe key issue behind SE valuation is trying to assess an appropriate discount rate. Since the company's net financial position is cash positive (total financial debt – cash and cash equivalent), the WACC is equal to the Cost of Equity.\nRelying on CAPM (Capital Asset Pricing Model) to estimate the cost of equity raises some concerns. According to CAPM, Ke = Risk-free + Beta x Market Risk Premium.\nHere the main concerns are:\n1. What is the beta for SE?\nWe have tried to assess SE beta and checked SE correlation to the market (table 2, 3, 4, and 5). The highest correlation is toward S&P500, but linear Beta, Beta +/-, and non-parametric all show an R^2 around 0.4, which indicates that SE is decorrelated from the S&P 500 Index (a similar story for other indexes). Beta is thus not useful to the extent of our analysis.\nSource: Moat Investing elaboration on Bloomberg data\nSource: Moat Investing elaboration on Bloomberg data\nSource: Moat Investing elaboration on Bloomberg data\nSource: Moat Investing elaboration on Bloomberg data\n2. What is the Market Risk Premium?\nThis is the most controversial element in the CAPM. The risk premium should reflect the “premium” required by equity holders on top of the risk-free.\nWe must keep present that SE's key market is South Asia. Thus, in our view, we should add a country risk adjustment to consider it. If we were using US Market Risk Premium, we would underestimate the risk related to the geographical areas where SE operates.\nWe have thus adjusted the Market Risk Premium factoring in Country Risk Premium calculated by considering the spread between Indonesian and US treasuries at 10y.\nAdjusting for country premium, the appropriate cost of equity for SE would be 15.3% (see chart 6). Assuming an appropriate Beta would be even higher.\nSource: Moat Investing elaboration on Bloomberg data\n3. What is the appropriate terminal growth rate?\nWe estimate the terminal growth by calculating the reinvestment rate (% of FCFF reinvested as CAPEX) and the sustainable ROI. We believe our 3.5% terminal growth is rather sustainable as the company is reinvesting over 20% of its free cash flows and has a sustainable ROI of around 20%.\nDCF valuation and sensitivity analysis\nWe have run a DCF totally based on consensus estimates from 2021 to 2030. The idea behind this analysis is to check the discount rate (Ke = WACC), which delivers an equity value in line with the current market cap.\nFactoring a 3.5% terminal growth rate and the fully diluted number of shares, the discount rate, which delivers around USD 180 bn market cap, is 7.7%!\nDCF\nSource: Moat Investing\nWe have thus run a sensitivity analysis by simply changing the discount rate as we believe that the cost of equity for SE should be adjusted for a country's risk premium.\nWhat happens if we increase the discount rate to around 15%? SE equity would be worth around USD 40 bn, some 70% less than the current value.\nSensitivity\nSource: Moat Investing\nThe fallacy of valuation through multiples and peer analysis\nWe have seen some sell-side equity researches where the target price is calculated as a sum of the parts of the three businesses (Garena, Shopee, and Sea Money) where:\n\nGarena is valued using a P/E of 20x its foreseeable earnings in 2023.\nShopee is valued using a DCF with a discount rate of around 8% and a terminal growth rate above 3.5%.\nSea Money is valued using a totally invented multiple on its future GTV of 0.20x, where the correlation between GTV and equity value is questionable.\n\nSome analysts compare Garena toTencent(OTCPK:TCEHY)(OTCPK:TCTZF), Sea Money toVisa(NYSE:V), Mastercard(NYSE:MA)and Adyen, Shopee toAmazon(NASDAQ:AMZN), and Alibaba(NYSE:BABA)(OTCPK:BABAF).\nWe believe this valuation approach does not work and, in most cases, leads to misleading results. Garena is a rather new player, and comparing it to an over USD 500 bn market cap company with stable business sounds like nonsense. The same story for Sea Money compared to players who have a completely different business model.\nWhat could drive value creation for SEUpward revision of current estimates led by new acquisitions\nSE has recently announced it intends to raise USD 6.8 bn funds through an equity offering (some USD 3.9 bn) and convertible note issuance (some USD 2.9 bn). After the fundraising, SE would rely upon around USD 12.8 bn to support further Shopee expansion in Europe and India.\nLeverage of the balance sheet\nSE might decide to leverage the balance sheet by injecting debt which would lower the overall cost of capital. We believe this would be a viable strategy, although it might not come before 3 to 5 years when the company's cash flows would be robust enough to support massive leverage.\nMain risks\nWe believe the main risks for the SE equity case are:\n\nThe expectations around Garena and its embedded valuation. Garena is valued at around USD 60bn. Its value would drop significantly if it is unable to launch new successful games like Free Fire, and/or its margins would be lower as a result of a shift from in-house game development to third parties licensed games.\nThe regulatory risks on its marketplace, which might lead to new taxes in SE markets.\n\nConclusion\nAt this stage, investors have these viable options:\n\nBelieve that market estimates will be upward revised in the future as SE would continue to deliver significant growth.\nBelieve that in the future as SE would command a more balanced D/E structure.\nInvesting in SE assuming 7.7% potential return if 1) and/or 2) (or a mix of) would not happen.\n\nWe think there is enough evidence to believe that the SE market cap has gone too far despite its solid business model. Factoring into current estimates, the appropriate hurdle rate might lead to far lower valuation evidence.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":887580768,"gmtCreate":1632063865954,"gmtModify":1632803061492,"author":{"id":"4087109808120260","authorId":"4087109808120260","name":"Tanyl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/174329973340cf0f5b68791ee5b08afd","vip":1,"crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4087109808120260","authorIdStr":"4087109808120260"},"htmlText":"SE all time high","listText":"SE all time high","text":"SE all time high","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/887580768","repostId":1102595384,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5972618,"gmtCreate":1632406336282,"gmtModify":1634788009411,"authorId":3577512169946317,"author":{"id":3577512169946317,"idStr":"3577512169946317","authorId":3577512169946317,"name":"Guardian_J","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5732d3790ba7ded4910ae093423ed15","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":887580768,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"go <u>go</u>","text":"go <u>go</u>","html":"go <u>go</u>"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":884245860,"gmtCreate":1631900367150,"gmtModify":1632805462992,"author":{"id":"3577363982359186","authorId":"3577363982359186","name":"Vettelpole","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3577363982359186","authorIdStr":"3577363982359186"},"htmlText":"Really brilliant article for equity analysis","listText":"Really brilliant article for equity analysis","text":"Really brilliant article for equity analysis","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/884245860","repostId":1102595384,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":884250135,"gmtCreate":1631896551927,"gmtModify":1632805477184,"author":{"id":"3571482048865852","authorId":"3571482048865852","name":"Troytan","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3571482048865852","authorIdStr":"3571482048865852"},"htmlText":"Absolutely, investors&nbsp;expectation&nbsp;play a big roller&nbsp;In the&nbsp;price action","listText":"Absolutely, investors&nbsp;expectation&nbsp;play a big roller&nbsp;In the&nbsp;price action","text":"Absolutely, investors expectation play a big roller In the price action","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/884250135","repostId":1102595384,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5940305,"gmtCreate":1632185434030,"gmtModify":1634790744138,"authorId":3574563425538377,"author":{"id":3574563425538377,"idStr":"3574563425538377","authorId":3574563425538377,"name":"MonaMaMa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0368c85249a7a2f30679720235bb7a7","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":884250135,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"the appropriate beta in msci view is Singapore as it ratchets up sea Ltd weightings in msci spore index. investor investing in sea may be <u>confused</u>","text":"the appropriate beta in msci view is Singapore as it ratchets up sea Ltd weightings in msci spore index. investor investing in sea may be <u>confused</u>","html":"the appropriate beta in msci view is Singapore as it ratchets up sea Ltd weightings in msci spore index. investor investing in sea may be <u>confused</u>"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":884693029,"gmtCreate":1631885580161,"gmtModify":1632805590052,"author":{"id":"3579572647008782","authorId":"3579572647008782","name":"Mtan23","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21a2ddfc414d0d3eab50e895e776bf23","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3579572647008782","authorIdStr":"3579572647008782"},"htmlText":"Good read&nbsp;","listText":"Good read&nbsp;","text":"Good read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/884693029","repostId":1102595384,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5905351,"gmtCreate":1631891636979,"gmtModify":1634796426000,"authorId":3582520228861009,"author":{"id":3582520228861009,"idStr":"3582520228861009","authorId":3582520228861009,"name":"CPCat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bafaf3d39abfb78a4bedf785310721a","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":884693029,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"yes. we'll written.","text":"yes. we'll written.","html":"yes. we'll written."}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":884872294,"gmtCreate":1631884188918,"gmtModify":1632805600846,"author":{"id":"3574116666789867","authorId":"3574116666789867","name":"Minion","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3574116666789867","authorIdStr":"3574116666789867"},"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/884872294","repostId":1102595384,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":884847023,"gmtCreate":1631883500962,"gmtModify":1632805607317,"author":{"id":"3582016604911088","authorId":"3582016604911088","name":"edelyu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/092df2b4df4fa72903ef644a702141fe","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3582016604911088","authorIdStr":"3582016604911088"},"htmlText":"Wow&nbsp;","listText":"Wow&nbsp;","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/884847023","repostId":1102595384,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5903597,"gmtCreate":1631883619537,"gmtModify":1634796552745,"authorId":3585830139314556,"author":{"id":3585830139314556,"idStr":"3585830139314556","authorId":3585830139314556,"name":"ahleemama","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e5556ad29b085a364d6ea7d326015c1","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":884847023,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"buy","text":"buy","html":"buy"}],"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":71,"commentSize":14,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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