国君策略：结构切换的破局信号出现

陈显顺策略研究2021-11-14

地产悲观预期修正，结构切换破局信号出现。分母端预期的重心将从2021Q4降准概率下行转向2022Q1宽松强化，结构上预期底+低估值的消费/金融地产受益。摘要大势研判：业绩空窗期次新、主题行情活跃，恰好为结构切换提供布局窗口。市场交投情绪明显回暖，全A成交额连续7日在万亿以上，赚钱效应提升。结构上，机构对主流赛道基本面超预期的空间存在分歧，近一月基金重仓、茅指数、宁组合指数横盘震荡。下沉中小盘...

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 业绩空窗期次新、主题行情活跃，恰好为结构切换提供布局窗口\n2.    地产悲观预期修正，结构切换的破局信号出现\n3.    北交所开闸在即，高质量发展迎来新阶段\n4.    行业推荐：周期转向消费，高估值转向低估值\n5.    五维数据全景图\n\n1、业绩空窗期次新、主题行情活跃，恰好为结构切换提供布局窗口\n大势研判：业绩空窗期次新、主题行情活跃，恰好为结构切换提供布局窗口。市场交投情绪明显回暖，全A成交额连续7日在万亿以上，单周上涨个股比达80%，较前一周提升20个百分点。交投活跃降低了指数破位风险，周中上证指数触及3448点随即V型反弹。结构上，机构对主流赛道基本面超预期的空间存在分歧，近一月基金重仓、茅指数、宁组合指数横盘震荡。下沉中小盘成为博弈型资金发力方向，市场上涨结构出现分化，小盘高贝塔指数跑赢大盘指数，次新股指数持续上涨，主题投资活跃。我们认为，随着年底一系列重要会议的陆续召开，支持消费投资恢复、科技创新等政策的落地方向将进一步明晰，风险评价下行将驱动跨年行情徐徐展开，符合共同富裕、绿色发展的产业方向仍是中期布局重点。结构配置上，维持“站在风格切换的起点”与“低估值收获季”的判断，当前逢低布局低估值板块为最优解。\n\n2、地产悲观预期修正，结构切换的破局信号出现\n地产悲观预期修正，结构切换的破局信号出现。地产融资出现松绑信号，居民中长贷回升验证房贷放款提速，招商、保利宣布拟在银行间市场债券融资，市场对地产悲观预期修正，地产行业指数单周涨幅第一。周五央行、银保监会分别召开会议，均提及房地产相关内容。与此前政策表述相比，会议强调了守住不发生系统性风险和维护房地产市场平稳健康发展。当前政策显示出底线思维，旨在防范房地产领域硬着陆风险，但不会为了短期稳增长而放缓长期结构性改革。对股市来说，地产融资边际微调意味着信用底的进一步确认。我们此前提出风格结构切换的破局之力将率先来自于分母端预期的再次变化，分母端预期的重心将从2021年Q4降准概率下行转向2022年Q1宽松预期的再次强化，结构上预期底已现且具备低估值优势的消费/金融地产等板块将最为受益。\n\n3、北交所开闸在即，高质量发展迎来新阶段\n北交所开闸在即，高质量发展迎来新阶段。北交所拟定于11月15日开市，届时将有首批81家公司在北交所上市，其中71家为存量精选层公司平移至北交所，10家为公开发行上市。我们认为短期北交所开闸对沪深两市提振效应大于资金分流效应。参考科创板设立初期 和精选层近期成交换手，我们预计北交所开市首日成交额在100~200亿左右（占沪深两市成交额的1~2%）。开市3周后成交额可能降至75~120亿左右 （占沪深两市成交额的0.75~1.2%）。科创板开市首日，创业板指和首批上市股对标的半导体、创新药指数均小幅下跌。但由于北交所开市多数股票有涨跌幅限制，且在精选层交易已经定价了转板预期，预计科创板开市首日跷跷板效应不会重演。长期看，北交所开市是落实国家创新驱动发展战略的必然要求，是新形势下全面深化资本市场改革的重要举措。随着直接融资比例的提升，高质量发展将迎来新阶段。\n4、行业推荐：周期转向消费，高估值转向低估值\n行业配置：从周期向消费，从高估值进攻向低估值防御。从周期向消费，从高估值进攻向低估值防御。1）消费：逐步迈出预期底部，推荐业绩有支撑且负面预期淡化的白酒/生猪/乳业/汽车零部件等方向；2）券商/银行：券商在财富管理驱动下二次成长、行情持续性将超预期，银行Q3盈利继续向上，资产质量持续好转；3）新能源：高景气方向仍具稀缺性，推荐新能源车/光伏/绿电等方向。\n5、五维数据全景图","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":873829818,"gmtCreate":1636930661153,"gmtModify":1636930661153,"author":{"id":"3570833668911971","authorId":"3570833668911971","name":"Tome","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d47f140f55f4badb19ca06d16064de5b","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"赞赞","listText":"赞赞","text":"赞赞","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/873829818","repostId":1102081864,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":873138275,"gmtCreate":1636876380196,"gmtModify":1636876380196,"author":{"id":"3577307495132496","authorId":"3577307495132496","name":"___00T__","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cb30343a3eeb8935ea2b5509b1ddb1b","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/873138275","repostId":1102081864,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":873191075,"gmtCreate":1636872494707,"gmtModify":1636872494707,"author":{"id":"3581585278491788","authorId":"3581585278491788","name":"Luowen2021T","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83a34192eabe6de5b1e67e6a641d48eb","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"good","listText":"good","text":"good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/873191075","repostId":1102081864,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6572192,"gmtCreate":1636873359159,"gmtModify":1636873359195,"authorId":3577327897505026,"author":{"id":3577327897505026,"authorId":3577327897505026,"name":"CMChai100","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b87825ca6f540c3da0cd40e2b277a88d","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":873191075,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Ada 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