港股市场暴跌时谁在“离场”？

中信证券研究2021-08-10

2021年7月，港股市场经历了内外部投资者负面情绪主导的共振下跌，恒指和国企指数分别下跌9.9%和13.4%，其中恒生科技指数在7月27日创下指数成立以来的单日最大跌幅（7.97%），经历暴跌后的港股市场科技板块估值已接近2015年以来的最低水平，同时指数层面下行空间有限。在市场剧烈波动期间（7月19日至30日）根据我们跟踪的托管口径计算，外资流出规模并未明显扩大，甚至呈现净买入的迹象，反观南向...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

yzhu
2021-08-10
yzhu
继续捡筹码
tagersanyer
2021-08-10
tagersanyer
投💰进去拉
PeterTheGrt
2021-08-10
PeterTheGrt
不提资产总量就没什么意义
- 涓流入海:
  确实

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1101083447?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38508134c6853c521e764dc952e7334a","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2021-08-10 10:49","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"1101083447","market":"hk","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"港股市场暴跌时谁在“离场”？","media":"中信证券研究","content":"<div>\n<p>2021年7月，港股市场经历了内外部投资者负面情绪主导的共振下跌，恒指和国企指数分别下跌9.9%和13.4%，其中恒生科技指数在7月27日创下指数成立以来的单日最大跌幅（7.97%），经历暴跌后的港股市场科技板块估值已接近2015年以来的最低水平，同时指数层面下行空间有限。在市场剧烈波动期间（7月19日至30日）根据我们跟踪的托管口径计算，外资流出规模并未明显扩大，甚至呈现净买入的迹象，反观南向...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/c-eGq67hOnpvFbTmgNkR4g\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"zxzqyj","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>港股市场暴跌时谁在“离场”？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n港股市场暴跌时谁在“离场”？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-10 10:49 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/c-eGq67hOnpvFbTmgNkR4g><strong>中信证券研究</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>2021年7月，港股市场经历了内外部投资者负面情绪主导的共振下跌，恒指和国企指数分别下跌9.9%和13.4%，其中恒生科技指数在7月27日创下指数成立以来的单日最大跌幅（7.97%），经历暴跌后的港股市场科技板块估值已接近2015年以来的最低水平，同时指数层面下行空间有限。在市场剧烈波动期间（7月19日至30日）根据我们跟踪的托管口径计算，外资流出规模并未明显扩大，甚至呈现净买入的迹象，反观南向...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/c-eGq67hOnpvFbTmgNkR4g\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"HSCEI","symbol_name":"国企指数","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/c-eGq67hOnpvFbTmgNkR4g","article_id":"1101083447","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/38508134c6853c521e764dc952e7334a"],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101083447","pubTimestamp":1628563767,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"zxzqyj","name":"中信证券研究"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"2021年7月，港股市场经历了内外部投资者负面情绪主导的共振下跌，恒指和国企指数分别下跌9.9%和13.4%，其中恒生科技指数在7月27日创下指数成立以来的单日最大跌幅（7.97%），经历暴跌后的港股","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"qq.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"HSCEI":"国企指数","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数","HSCCI":"红筹指数","HSI":"恒生指数"},"translate_title":"Who was \"leaving\" when the Hong Kong stock market plummeted?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f09e402538026af5e6f9bd57ba0f96a3","symbols_score_info":{"HSCCI":0.9,"HSCEI":0.9,"HSI":0.9,"HSTECH":0.9},"content_text":"2021年7月，港股市场经历了内外部投资者负面情绪主导的共振下跌，恒指和国企指数分别下跌9.9%和13.4%，其中恒生科技指数在7月27日创下指数成立以来的单日最大跌幅（7.97%），经历暴跌后的港股市场科技板块估值已接近2015年以来的最低水平，同时指数层面下行空间有限。在市场剧烈波动期间（7月19日至30日）根据我们跟踪的托管口径计算，外资流出规模并未明显扩大，甚至呈现净买入的迹象，反观南向资金连续12个交易日减持港股资产，单月净卖出创2015年沪深港通成立以来的新高（635亿港元）。外资自7月中下旬以来对于港股科技龙头企业（主要是腾讯和美团）增持力度加大，而南向资金在持续减持互联网公司的同时，对于中小市值细分赛道龙头关注度有所抬升，个股层面中芯国际、吉利汽车、药明生物以及东岳集团等获南向较大规模增持。\n\n▍2021年7月，港股市场经历了对极端行业政策担忧下内外部投资者负面情绪共振下跌，主要旗舰指数恒指和国企指数分别下跌9.9%和13.4%，在全球主要股指中居于末位。\n在海外投资者全面China risk off下，恒生科技指数7月27日单日跌幅达到创纪录的7.97%。在市场剧烈波动期间，从资金端来看，南向资金自7月中连续12个交易日减持港股资产，但外资流出规模并未明显扩大，甚至在7月26-27日两天累计净买入超过80亿港元。我们按港交所托管口径计算，7月单月外资净卖出港股市场202亿港元，但值得一提的是，与南向资金的连续减持不同，外资在7月最后十个交易日累计净买入近30亿港元。\n▍连续12个交易日净卖出，南向资金单月减持规模创纪录。\n自6月中旬以来，南向资金持续流出港股市场，7月单月净卖出635亿港元，创2015年沪深港通成立以来最大单月净卖出。行业和个股配置层面，近期南向资金的投资行为主要体现以下几点特征：\n1）7月南向资金再次大幅减持港股计算机和餐饮旅游板块，环比6月净卖出规模明显扩大，分别达到454亿（主要是腾讯控股）和232亿港元（主要是美团）。\n2）对汽车、医药板块的追捧热度边际有所减少，但绝对体量上仍保持稳定净买入。\n3）南向资金转投港股顺周期板块，有色金属（主要是锂板块）和基础化工分别获南向资金增持31.1/26.6亿港元，环比+30.2/47.1亿港元。\n4）中小市值细分赛道龙头关注度有所抬升，单月净买入东岳集团、创梦天地、赣锋锂业达到31.6/5.7/17.9亿港元，占日均流通市值比13.3%/6.9%/4.2%，边际上也推动上述三家公司7月分别上涨150.8%/26.6%/43.7%。\n▍7月下半月以来，外资并未明显减持港股资产，行业层面加仓港股科技互联网龙头。\n从板块的角度来看，7月外资在市场剧烈波动期间（7月19日至30日），维持对于中资可选消费板块的减持（主要是零售业的阿里和美团），这与6月下旬连续下跌阶段保持一致，同时“抄底”港股科技和互联网龙头，期间累计增持188亿港元，其中腾讯、美团分别获得142亿和36亿港元的净买入，较6月末市场连续下跌期间净买入规模有所扩大（6月28日至7月7日外资净买入腾讯、美团分别为56亿和20亿港元）。\n▍内外资“定价权”的迁移。\n2021年7月末，外资在软件与服务（主要是腾讯控股）、零售业、房地产、保险以及银行等行业依旧具备主导力，但内地投资者的影响不断抬升，南向资金在半导体、电信服务、能源、媒体、汽车与汽车零部件以及银行这六个板块的市值占比超过20%。个股层面，截至2021年7月30日，南向资金在山东墨龙（66.4%）、长城汽车（47.8%）、保利物业（47.8%）的持股比例最高。\n▍风险因素：\n中美关系恶化，海外疫情蔓延持续超预期，中国及全球宏观经济修复不及预期，国内流动性收紧，外资持续流出中国市场。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":896848415,"gmtCreate":1628571946137,"gmtModify":1628571946137,"author":{"id":"3474020459908238","authorId":"3474020459908238","name":"yzhu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59bdf15cd7f8be6e2ee91e415fe21012","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3474020459908238","authorIdStr":"3474020459908238"},"htmlText":"继续捡筹码","listText":"继续捡筹码","text":"继续捡筹码","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/896848415","repostId":1101083447,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":896815346,"gmtCreate":1628568316585,"gmtModify":1628570500933,"author":{"id":"3488510885502512","authorId":"3488510885502512","name":"tagersanyer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3488510885502512","authorIdStr":"3488510885502512"},"htmlText":"投💰进去拉","listText":"投💰进去拉","text":"投💰进去拉","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/896815346","repostId":1101083447,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":896816503,"gmtCreate":1628568124502,"gmtModify":1628570500932,"author":{"id":"3578445259876906","authorId":"3578445259876906","name":"PeterTheGrt","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3578445259876906","authorIdStr":"3578445259876906"},"htmlText":"不提资产总量就没什么意义","listText":"不提资产总量就没什么意义","text":"不提资产总量就没什么意义","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/896816503","repostId":1101083447,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5480391,"gmtCreate":1628573020872,"gmtModify":1635155449054,"authorId":4087445017619250,"author":{"id":4087445017619250,"idStr":"4087445017619250","authorId":4087445017619250,"name":"涓流入海","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6dd16f3aed0a8f46a51885d28d99d30","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":896816503,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"确实","text":"确实","html":"确实"}],"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":29,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.4","shortVersion":"4.29.4","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1101083447"}