“一哥”张坤罕见反思：未来五年赚钱更难

华尔街见闻2021-07-20

7月20日凌晨，易方达、广发等基金陆续披露旗下基金二季报，张坤、萧楠、刘格菘等明星基金经理的最新持仓变动也随之曝光。他们的投资组合做了哪些调整？如何看待过去一段时间互联网、教育股的回调和猪价的下跌？ 01 张坤罕见“反思” 未来几年回报下降难以避免年初市场回调时，有人创造出 “快逃”的表情包。二季报显示，张坤和他的基民都没有“跑”。截至二季度末，张坤的管理规模达到1344.78亿元，较上...

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免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

Kianhui
2021-07-20
Kianhui
不用五年了，现在己经很困难了。
- DavidLeeT:
  钱只会贬值
XiaoHui_0906
2021-07-20
XiaoHui_0906
Lublin😍
Derick的日间
2021-07-20
Derick的日间
赚钱啥时候容易过
- Derick的日间:
  哎

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years","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4265f6c7233101adccc7fbb75b2964e","symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9},"content_text":"7月20日凌晨，易方达、广发等基金陆续披露旗下基金二季报，张坤、萧楠、刘格菘等明星基金经理的最新持仓变动也随之曝光。\n他们的投资组合做了哪些调整？如何看待过去一段时间互联网、教育股的回调和猪价的下跌？\n01\n张坤罕见“反思”\n未来几年回报下降难以避免\n年初市场回调时，有人创造出 “快逃”的表情包。二季报显示，张坤和他的基民都没有“跑”。\n\n截至二季度末，张坤的管理规模达到1344.78亿元，较上季度末的1331.09亿元略有增加。\n在反思自己过往的投资过程，他“发现有不少错误”，同时感慨未来投资之难。\n他指出，疫情后，随着全球流动性的放松，全球股市都有了显著上涨。对于一些公司，在各种假设都兑现的情况下，可能未来 5 年能赚取贴现率或者比贴现率略高的收益率水平，但是一旦错误，可能就要面临30%甚至50%的股价下跌。\n未来几年，不少行业面临的竞争程度恐怕比过去 5 年更为激烈，未来5年行业竞争格局的判断难度恐怕只增不减。如果正确，可能只获得一个平庸的回报率，但一旦错误，却面临不小的损失。\n“我经常这样审视组合，如果股市暂停，5 年后恢复交易，每个企业能带来多少的预期复合收益率，从目前的判断来看，未来几年预期回报率下降可能是难以避免的。”张坤在季报中表示。\n\n02\n张坤减持五粮液茅台好未来，增仓腾讯邮储\n对比2021年一季报，张坤旗下4只产品的股票仓位均在二季度有不同程度的下降。\n其中，易方达中小盘的股票仓位下降幅度最大，其股票市值占基金资产净值比例从一季度末的94.58%大幅降低至71.07%左右，下降了约24个百分点。\n这也是张坤管理的易方达中小盘基金期间，季末股票仓位最低的一次，仅次于2017年中报的72.19%。\n易方达蓝筹股票仓位约降低2个百分点左右，易方达亚洲精选、易方达优质企业仓位约降低4-5个百分点之间。这3只基金股票仓位均在9成上下。\n二季度，部分重仓股回调，显然对张坤颇有触动。总体来看，张坤对于重仓的计算机和消费品行业的看法较为犹豫，对于银行、地产、电子、医药等行业的看法较为乐观。\n从具体的持仓看，易方达亚洲精选的重仓组合也显示，好未来、新东方、STAAR Surgical Co退出前十大重仓股，中国邮政储蓄银行、中国海外发展有限公司、唯品会新入前十大重仓股。\n对此，张坤在易方达亚洲精选中特别提到，二季度，教培企业受政策预期影响股价跌幅较大，对基金净值产生了一定的负面影响，这也使他反思长期投资框架中的一些假设，希望能够将其进一步完善。\n易方达中小盘十大重仓股保持不变，重点增持了恒生电子、华兰生物、重点减持了前期涨幅巨大的通策医疗、茅台、五粮液。\n\n易方达蓝筹2季报前十大重仓股中，对比1季报，爱尔眼科为新入十大重仓股者，平安银行则退出前十大。不过，2020年4季报时，爱尔眼科亦在易方达蓝筹前十大重仓股，此次现身与当时持股数量变化亦不算大。\n\n易方达优质企业前十大重仓股信息显示，爱尔眼科、平安银行新入前十大重仓股，华兰生物、锦欣生殖则退出前十大重仓股。\n\n03\n刘格菘增配“全球比较优势”制造业\n在广发小盘2季报中，刘格菘强调，他二季度集中调研了光伏产业链、动力电池、化工新材料、面板等具备“全球比较优势”特征的中国制造业上市公司，仍然认为这类制造业资产的盈利预计能够保持比较长的景气周期，而且这类制造业资产的估值扩张并没有脱离景气区间，相当一部分资产还具备较高的性价比。\n二季度，该基金进一步提高了具有“全球比较优势”的制造业的配置比例。\n\n持仓变动方面，该基金在第二季度增持了356.65万股隆基股份，合计持有1800.15万股，公司股价近期从年后大跌的“坑”里走了出来并创下历史新高，二季度涨幅达41.66%，因此基金持有其市值达15.99亿元，占净值比例达10.86%，为其第一重仓股。\n此外，泰格医药退出前十大重仓股，小康股份新入前十大重仓股。\n此前公告就会发现，广发小盘参与了小康股份非公开发行股票的认购。这部分流通受限的股票占基金资产净值比约1.68%。\n而2季报显示，小康股份占净值比约4.58%。也就是说，在2季度，除了参与定增，刘格菘也在二级市场买入了小康股份。\n\n小康股份年初股价在15元左右，6月份盘中一度超83元，涨幅超450%。随后股价有所回调，7月20日中午收盘报65.75元。\n04\n萧楠大举增持招商银行\n萧楠管理的易方达科顺定开披露2季报显示，该基金截至二季度末的股票仓位为90.98%，相比一季度末的89.53%略有提升。\n\n年内白酒股分化较大，从萧楠的持仓来看，十大重仓股中仍有6只白酒股。从第一第二大重仓股看，表现相对弱势的五粮液并未减持，而上半年涨超19%的山西汾酒反而持股数有所减少。\n招商银行的新入，或许是萧楠提到的大幅增持了银行板块的体现之一。2季报显示，招商银行占净值比约6%，一举成为第7大重仓股。\n此外，他继续加大了对养殖板块的投资，但从效果看并不理想——猪价的下跌超出之前的预期，但他并不担心相关标的的长期空间，相反，每一次行业低谷，都是优质企业扩张、竞争对手停滞倒退的弯道。\n去年他布局的一些低估值标的业绩表现一般，其中的原因除了市场风格，更多的是公司本身摆脱现有困境的努力还没有出现预期效果。好在，在这类标的的仓位并不多。过多的左侧投资的确会严重降低投资效率，因此二季度他适当做出了调整，将这类公司替换成估值同样便宜但更具备新增长动力的公司。\n而其他的板块调整从十大重仓股看并不明显，或许要等半年报给出更详细的信息。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":171701333,"gmtCreate":1626761272222,"gmtModify":1633771264581,"author":{"id":"3558645402496197","authorId":"3558645402496197","name":"Kianhui","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/652dd6698826aaeab527ac64b8adf019","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3558645402496197","authorIdStr":"3558645402496197"},"htmlText":"不用五年了，现在己经很困难了。","listText":"不用五年了，现在己经很困难了。","text":"不用五年了，现在己经很困难了。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/171701333","repostId":1100583093,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5271458,"gmtCreate":1626772361913,"gmtModify":1635225381326,"authorId":3578436425687491,"author":{"id":3578436425687491,"idStr":"3578436425687491","authorId":3578436425687491,"name":"DavidLeeT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/583d6a8bf5cad26a556357b62b26a0c1","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":171701333,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"钱只会贬值","text":"钱只会贬值","html":"钱只会贬值"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":171440659,"gmtCreate":1626759389571,"gmtModify":1633771281189,"author":{"id":"3582006747349058","authorId":"3582006747349058","name":"XiaoHui_0906","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3582006747349058","authorIdStr":"3582006747349058"},"htmlText":"Lublin😍","listText":"Lublin😍","text":"Lublin😍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/171440659","repostId":1100583093,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":171458543,"gmtCreate":1626758769582,"gmtModify":1631891026010,"author":{"id":"3564013861347254","authorId":"3564013861347254","name":"Derick的日间","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e89244b0a4140129e833375b5b2471e","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3564013861347254","authorIdStr":"3564013861347254"},"htmlText":"赚钱啥时候容易过","listText":"赚钱啥时候容易过","text":"赚钱啥时候容易过","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/171458543","repostId":1100583093,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5270001,"gmtCreate":1626758776462,"gmtModify":1631891026014,"authorId":3564013861347254,"author":{"id":3564013861347254,"idStr":"3564013861347254","authorId":3564013861347254,"name":"Derick的日间","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e89244b0a4140129e833375b5b2471e","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":171458543,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"哎","text":"哎","html":"哎"}],"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":17,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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