余天天84的个人主页 - 老虎社区

余天天84

余天天84

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2023-06-11

是裤衩都不剩了[笑哭] [笑哭]

1万本金，如何暴赚3.8亿？投资奇迹来自"少数赢家"！股市有无"藏宝图"？

2021-02-17

美股先上港股跟上[捂脸] [捂脸]

字节跳动回应在美上市传闻：此消息不实

2021-01-26

2025年，100万辆，有钱的大胆做空[笑哭] [笑哭]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2020-03-19

$BTAI 20200320 20.0 PUT(BTAI)$第一次玩期权[捂脸]

2020-03-06

$Bioxcel Therapeutics Inc.(BTAI)$ 你这货够坚挺[喷血]

2019-05-17

$老虎证券(TIGR)$沙雕 [喷血][叹气]

2019-01-30

$三倍做多天然气ETN(VelocityShares)(UGAZ)$ [666][666][666]

2019-01-15

$Snap Inc(SNAP)$向钱奔中[贱笑]

2018-11-29

$三倍做多天然气ETN(VelocityShares)(UGAZ)$ 一觉醒来涨这么多😂😂

2018-11-28

$三倍做多天然气ETN(VelocityShares)(UGAZ)$ 定个小目标😄😄

2018-11-23

$三倍做空天然气ETN(VelocityShares)(DGAZ)$ 周一合股了，不看好😂😂

2018-11-22

$三倍做多天然气ETN(VelocityShares)(UGAZ)$ 南加州一地震就往下掉了😂

2018-11-21

$三倍做空天然气ETN(VelocityShares)(DGAZ)$ 几号合股，有谁知道😂😂

2018-11-21

$三倍做多原油ETN(UWT)$😂😂

2018-09-20

$Tilray Inc.(TLRY)$一觉醒来，170挂单成交了😱😱

2018-09-20

$Tilray Inc.(TLRY)$猛跌🤑🤑

2018-09-19

$Tilray Inc.(TLRY)$难道来个三连击飚上400去😂😂

2018-08-16

$苹果(AAPL)$还是老巴眼光独到🤔🤔

2018-06-13

$特斯拉(TSLA)$又复制昨天走势😂😂

2018-06-06

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 鸡腿来一波

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[笑哭]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/186061722112152","repostId":"1181024589","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1181024589","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"致力于提供最及时的财经资讯，最专业的解读分析，覆盖宏观经济、金融机构、A股市场、上市公司、投资理财等财经领域。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"券商中国","id":"9","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d482d56459984e8c86a6a137295b3c4f"},"pubTimestamp":1686442939,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1181024589?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-06-11 08:22","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"1万本金，如何暴赚3.8亿？投资奇迹来自\"少数赢家\"！股市有无\"藏宝图\"？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181024589","media":"券商中国","summary":"如果你在1965年给巴菲特1万美元，一直不离不弃，那么你现在就坐拥3.8亿美元。这一奇迹的背后，正是巴菲特反复阐述过的，“我们寻找那些业务简单易懂，可持续经营，具有令人垂涎的经济特征，拥有杰出才能和股","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>如果你在1965年给巴菲特1万美元，一直不离不弃，那么你现在就坐拥3.8亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这一奇迹的背后，正是巴菲特反复阐述过的，“我们寻找那些业务简单易懂，可持续经营，具有令人垂涎的经济特征，拥有杰出才能和股东利益导向的管理层的大型公司。我们既必须以合理价格购买，又需要让企业的表现证明符合我们的预期。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">事实上，如果拿去巴菲特最成功的15个投资案例，那么巴菲特的业绩也会流于平庸。这就是巴菲特所说的，野草会凋零，鲜花会盛开，随着时间的推移，只需要少数赢家就能创造奇迹。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">具体来看，无论是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>还是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">可口可乐</a>，能让巴菲特青睐有加的公司都具有一些共性：如长期稳定的经营史，客户忠诚且业务规模庞大，业务简单易懂且具有很强的抗颠覆性，“小成本大生意”的商业模式，管理层理性坦诚且具有股东利益导向。这些共性反映在财务指标上，就是长期稳定的高净资产收益率、高毛利率、高净利率、高现金流、高分红或者股票回购。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">当这类公司的特性不变时，巴菲特给自己的持有期限是“永远”。“剪掉鲜花，浇灌杂草”和从一朵平庸的花跳到另一朵平庸的花不是巴菲特的投资风格。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\">1.长期稳定的经营史</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在巴菲特看来，尽管预测一家企业未来能否成功不那么简单，但企业一路走来的经营轨迹相对可靠，如果一家企业展示了持续稳定的经营历史，年复一年提供同样的产品和服务，推测其持续成功就是合理的。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">比如，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">可口可乐</a>公司成立于1886年，巴菲特在1987年买入时，可口可乐公司已经是一家典型的百年老店。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>公司成立于1976年，巴菲特在2016年买入时，苹果公司成立时间已达40年。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">吉列公司成立于1901年，巴菲特在1989年以可转换优先股的形式买入6亿美元，1991年巴菲特将可转换优先股换成普通股，2005年<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PG\">宝洁</a>公司收购了吉列，巴菲特选择了以换股的形式将吉列股票换成<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PG\">宝洁</a>股票。宝洁公司成立于1837年，更是名副其实的百年老店。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MCO\">穆迪</a>公司成立于1900年，巴菲特在2000年首次出手买入<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MCO\">穆迪</a>评级公司时，穆迪也是一家百年老店。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">美国运通</a>成立于1850年，巴菲特曾在1963年买入<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">美国运通</a>，后来又在1991年第二次买入美国运通。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">巴菲特所持有的非上市公司，无论是盖克保险还是禧诗糖果公司均拥有长期稳定的经营史，盖克保险成立于1936年，禧诗成立于1921年。在巴菲特历年致股东的信中，这两家公司均会作为理性投资者应如何选择公司的典型案例而高频出现。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\">2.业务简单易懂且不易被颠覆</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在2022年的致股东的信中，巴菲特对已经持股超过35年的可口可乐赞誉有加。他写道，1994年<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">伯克希尔</a>从可口可乐公司收到现金分红为7500万美元，而到了2022年，分红已经增加到了7.04亿美元。“每一年的分红都有增长，就像每年过生日一样确定。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">可口可乐公司自1886年成立以来，公司所销售的主要产品没有变过，在过去长达百年的时间中，可口可乐做到了以尽量低的价格和尽量快的速度在全世界培养消费者的饮用习惯，其独特的味道让人们形成味觉依赖。味道越独特的东西，顾客一旦习惯，则忠诚度越高，可口可乐的百年持续经营史让它在全球拥有庞大而忠诚的消费者群体。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">企业所拥有的宽阔护城河最终会反映在财务指标上。可口可乐公司在2018年～2022年的销售毛利率分别为61.9%、60.77%、59.31%、60.27%、58.14%；销售净利率分别为18.88%、24.11%、23.53%、25.36%、22.26%；净资产收益率分别为37.79%、49.61%、40.48%、46.2%和40.51%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">苹果公司的初代智能手机自2007年发布后，就迅速占领了高端智能手机市场，巴菲特将苹果公司视为真正意义上的消费公司，而非高科技公司。巴菲特曾在接受媒体采访时说：“苹果产品的顾客忠诚度和黏性很高，愿意为苹果支付更高的价格，消费者都会重复消费，买新的产品替代已有的产品。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">对长期投资者来说，苹果公司具有卓越的财务指标。在2018年到2022年的过去五年间，苹果公司的销售毛利率分别是38.34%、37.82%、38.23%、41.78%和43.31%，销售净利率分别为22.41%、21.24%、20.91%、25.88%和25.31%；净资产收益率分别为49.36%、55.92%、73.69%、147.44%和175.46%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">巴菲特所持有的苹果公司、宝洁公司、禧诗糖果、可口可乐等公司均具有强大的抗颠覆性，这种护城河来自顾客长期购买所形成的经济商誉，是客户心中无数次由产品品质和个人体验带来的愉悦经历，所形成的普遍认同的良好声誉。巴菲特曾说过，好的经济商誉是企业经营中不断施惠的礼物，是企业超额利润的来源。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">除了消费企业的经济商誉外，巴菲特还认为，企业的护城河还来自不受利润管制的政府特许权，例如电视台，以及在一个行业作为低成本生产商的持久地位。穆迪评级公司和内布拉斯加家具店就分别拥有政府特许经营和低成本供应商护城河。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">巴菲特数次重申自己买入企业的标准是：规模够大、具有被验证的持续经营能力（那些对于未来做出的预测，我们毫无兴趣；对于所谓“困境反转”型公司，我们也没有兴趣）；在负债极少或没有负债的情况下，公司具有良好的净资产回报率；具备管理层；业务简明（如果有太多科技的成分，我们可能搞不明白）；明确的报价。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\">3.管理层理性</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">巴菲特在评估一家企业时，也会非常仔细地观察管理层，他尤其看重那些仅拥有窄护城河企业中管理层的作用。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">巴菲特在考察企业管理层时，特别看重三点：一是管理层是否理性？二是管理层是否对股东坦诚？三是管理层能否抗拒惯性驱使？</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">巴菲特曾举过一个例子：37个失败的投资银行，它们都有一些擅长的优势，这些公司都由勤奋的人来领导，他们具有高智商，具有强烈的进取心，但他们都失败了，原因就是他们无法克制对他人的盲目模仿。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">连续阅读年报是认知管理层的重要方式。巴菲特认为，回顾过去几年的年报，尤其是仔细阅读公司管理层言及未来的策略，然后，比照今天的结果，看看原来的计划实现了多少？比照公司过去的策略和今天的策略，看看有何不同？看看他们的思想变化。巴菲特也建议将公司年报与同行其他公司年报比较。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不过，巴菲特认为，仅凭管理层质量不足以做出投资决策，优秀的骑手只有在良马身上才有出色的表现，在劣马身上毫无作为，同样的管理层在那些具有优秀经济特征的公司里会取得好成绩，但如果他们在流沙中奔跑，就不会有任何进展。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\">4.股价拥有安全边际</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">股市周期性地被傻瓜所主导，给予巴菲特这样的长期投资者黄金般的买入机会。在2022年致股东的信中，巴菲特写道：股票在大多数时间以愚蠢的价格进行交易，不是太低就是太高，我们投资于公开交易股票的一个优势就是，我们偶尔能很容易地以便宜的价格买入企业，而在一级市场上对企业进行控股式的投资几乎从不以便宜的价格出售。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">巴菲特2016年出手买入苹果公司时，苹果股价距离2015年高峰回撤了约30%，很大程度上是因为市场认为苹果公司已经过高增长阶段流于乏味和平庸，但巴菲特却在此后三年内将苹果公司买成了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">伯克希尔</a>第一大重仓股，苹果公司占伯克希尔整体仓位四成以上。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2016年，苹果公司市值6000亿美金，公司持有现金及现金等价物和短期投资671亿美元，营业利润为460亿美元。对于二级市场的购买者来说，扣除现金及现金等价物后，苹果公司的市盈率不到11倍。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">巴菲特对苹果公司投入的本金是310亿美元，截至2022年末，这部分持仓的市值为1611亿美元，浮盈为420%，这还不包括过去7年收到的数量庞大的分红。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">巴菲特对华盛顿邮报的买入也堪称经典，这笔投资给巴菲特带来50倍以上的投资收益。1973年，美国股市处于恐慌当中，很多蓝筹股距离1969年高点时已经“腰斩”，华盛顿邮报的市值仅有8000万美元，但巴菲特判断这家公司至少价值4亿美金。巴菲特在1973年一口气买入华盛顿邮报8%以上的股份，他认定这是一个千载难逢的机会。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">巴菲特的投资策略是收集伟大的企业，“成功投资的关键是，在好公司价格远低于其价值时出手”，这是巴菲特从老师格雷厄姆那里学到的投资法则。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">巴菲特绝不会从不成气候的公司里挑选幸运儿，他瞄准的是杰出企业，并在价格打折的时候出手。如果巴菲特还停留在最初的用探测器捡“烟蒂”阶段，就不会拥有57年3.8万倍的投资收益，“长坡厚雪”企业的价值会随着时间的推移而呈指数级别的增长。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">对于巴菲特来说，集中投资明星企业并不意味着高风险，因为风险是来自于你不知道自己在做什么，就像他投资华盛顿邮报时，愿意将全部身家投资于该股。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>1万本金，如何暴赚3.8亿？投资奇迹来自\"少数赢家\"！股市有无\"藏宝图\"？</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n1万本金，如何暴赚3.8亿？投资奇迹来自\"少数赢家\"！股市有无\"藏宝图\"？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/9\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d482d56459984e8c86a6a137295b3c4f);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">券商中国 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-06-11 08:22</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>如果你在1965年给巴菲特1万美元，一直不离不弃，那么你现在就坐拥3.8亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这一奇迹的背后，正是巴菲特反复阐述过的，“我们寻找那些业务简单易懂，可持续经营，具有令人垂涎的经济特征，拥有杰出才能和股东利益导向的管理层的大型公司。我们既必须以合理价格购买，又需要让企业的表现证明符合我们的预期。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">事实上，如果拿去巴菲特最成功的15个投资案例，那么巴菲特的业绩也会流于平庸。这就是巴菲特所说的，野草会凋零，鲜花会盛开，随着时间的推移，只需要少数赢家就能创造奇迹。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">具体来看，无论是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>还是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">可口可乐</a>，能让巴菲特青睐有加的公司都具有一些共性：如长期稳定的经营史，客户忠诚且业务规模庞大，业务简单易懂且具有很强的抗颠覆性，“小成本大生意”的商业模式，管理层理性坦诚且具有股东利益导向。这些共性反映在财务指标上，就是长期稳定的高净资产收益率、高毛利率、高净利率、高现金流、高分红或者股票回购。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">当这类公司的特性不变时，巴菲特给自己的持有期限是“永远”。“剪掉鲜花，浇灌杂草”和从一朵平庸的花跳到另一朵平庸的花不是巴菲特的投资风格。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\">1.长期稳定的经营史</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在巴菲特看来，尽管预测一家企业未来能否成功不那么简单，但企业一路走来的经营轨迹相对可靠，如果一家企业展示了持续稳定的经营历史，年复一年提供同样的产品和服务，推测其持续成功就是合理的。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">比如，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">可口可乐</a>公司成立于1886年，巴菲特在1987年买入时，可口可乐公司已经是一家典型的百年老店。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>公司成立于1976年，巴菲特在2016年买入时，苹果公司成立时间已达40年。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">吉列公司成立于1901年，巴菲特在1989年以可转换优先股的形式买入6亿美元，1991年巴菲特将可转换优先股换成普通股，2005年<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PG\">宝洁</a>公司收购了吉列，巴菲特选择了以换股的形式将吉列股票换成<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PG\">宝洁</a>股票。宝洁公司成立于1837年，更是名副其实的百年老店。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MCO\">穆迪</a>公司成立于1900年，巴菲特在2000年首次出手买入<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MCO\">穆迪</a>评级公司时，穆迪也是一家百年老店。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">美国运通</a>成立于1850年，巴菲特曾在1963年买入<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">美国运通</a>，后来又在1991年第二次买入美国运通。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">巴菲特所持有的非上市公司，无论是盖克保险还是禧诗糖果公司均拥有长期稳定的经营史，盖克保险成立于1936年，禧诗成立于1921年。在巴菲特历年致股东的信中，这两家公司均会作为理性投资者应如何选择公司的典型案例而高频出现。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\">2.业务简单易懂且不易被颠覆</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在2022年的致股东的信中，巴菲特对已经持股超过35年的可口可乐赞誉有加。他写道，1994年<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">伯克希尔</a>从可口可乐公司收到现金分红为7500万美元，而到了2022年，分红已经增加到了7.04亿美元。“每一年的分红都有增长，就像每年过生日一样确定。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">可口可乐公司自1886年成立以来，公司所销售的主要产品没有变过，在过去长达百年的时间中，可口可乐做到了以尽量低的价格和尽量快的速度在全世界培养消费者的饮用习惯，其独特的味道让人们形成味觉依赖。味道越独特的东西，顾客一旦习惯，则忠诚度越高，可口可乐的百年持续经营史让它在全球拥有庞大而忠诚的消费者群体。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">企业所拥有的宽阔护城河最终会反映在财务指标上。可口可乐公司在2018年～2022年的销售毛利率分别为61.9%、60.77%、59.31%、60.27%、58.14%；销售净利率分别为18.88%、24.11%、23.53%、25.36%、22.26%；净资产收益率分别为37.79%、49.61%、40.48%、46.2%和40.51%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">苹果公司的初代智能手机自2007年发布后，就迅速占领了高端智能手机市场，巴菲特将苹果公司视为真正意义上的消费公司，而非高科技公司。巴菲特曾在接受媒体采访时说：“苹果产品的顾客忠诚度和黏性很高，愿意为苹果支付更高的价格，消费者都会重复消费，买新的产品替代已有的产品。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">对长期投资者来说，苹果公司具有卓越的财务指标。在2018年到2022年的过去五年间，苹果公司的销售毛利率分别是38.34%、37.82%、38.23%、41.78%和43.31%，销售净利率分别为22.41%、21.24%、20.91%、25.88%和25.31%；净资产收益率分别为49.36%、55.92%、73.69%、147.44%和175.46%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">巴菲特所持有的苹果公司、宝洁公司、禧诗糖果、可口可乐等公司均具有强大的抗颠覆性，这种护城河来自顾客长期购买所形成的经济商誉，是客户心中无数次由产品品质和个人体验带来的愉悦经历，所形成的普遍认同的良好声誉。巴菲特曾说过，好的经济商誉是企业经营中不断施惠的礼物，是企业超额利润的来源。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">除了消费企业的经济商誉外，巴菲特还认为，企业的护城河还来自不受利润管制的政府特许权，例如电视台，以及在一个行业作为低成本生产商的持久地位。穆迪评级公司和内布拉斯加家具店就分别拥有政府特许经营和低成本供应商护城河。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">巴菲特数次重申自己买入企业的标准是：规模够大、具有被验证的持续经营能力（那些对于未来做出的预测，我们毫无兴趣；对于所谓“困境反转”型公司，我们也没有兴趣）；在负债极少或没有负债的情况下，公司具有良好的净资产回报率；具备管理层；业务简明（如果有太多科技的成分，我们可能搞不明白）；明确的报价。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\">3.管理层理性</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">巴菲特在评估一家企业时，也会非常仔细地观察管理层，他尤其看重那些仅拥有窄护城河企业中管理层的作用。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">巴菲特在考察企业管理层时，特别看重三点：一是管理层是否理性？二是管理层是否对股东坦诚？三是管理层能否抗拒惯性驱使？</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">巴菲特曾举过一个例子：37个失败的投资银行，它们都有一些擅长的优势，这些公司都由勤奋的人来领导，他们具有高智商，具有强烈的进取心，但他们都失败了，原因就是他们无法克制对他人的盲目模仿。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">连续阅读年报是认知管理层的重要方式。巴菲特认为，回顾过去几年的年报，尤其是仔细阅读公司管理层言及未来的策略，然后，比照今天的结果，看看原来的计划实现了多少？比照公司过去的策略和今天的策略，看看有何不同？看看他们的思想变化。巴菲特也建议将公司年报与同行其他公司年报比较。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不过，巴菲特认为，仅凭管理层质量不足以做出投资决策，优秀的骑手只有在良马身上才有出色的表现，在劣马身上毫无作为，同样的管理层在那些具有优秀经济特征的公司里会取得好成绩，但如果他们在流沙中奔跑，就不会有任何进展。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\">4.股价拥有安全边际</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">股市周期性地被傻瓜所主导，给予巴菲特这样的长期投资者黄金般的买入机会。在2022年致股东的信中，巴菲特写道：股票在大多数时间以愚蠢的价格进行交易，不是太低就是太高，我们投资于公开交易股票的一个优势就是，我们偶尔能很容易地以便宜的价格买入企业，而在一级市场上对企业进行控股式的投资几乎从不以便宜的价格出售。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">巴菲特2016年出手买入苹果公司时，苹果股价距离2015年高峰回撤了约30%，很大程度上是因为市场认为苹果公司已经过高增长阶段流于乏味和平庸，但巴菲特却在此后三年内将苹果公司买成了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">伯克希尔</a>第一大重仓股，苹果公司占伯克希尔整体仓位四成以上。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2016年，苹果公司市值6000亿美金，公司持有现金及现金等价物和短期投资671亿美元，营业利润为460亿美元。对于二级市场的购买者来说，扣除现金及现金等价物后，苹果公司的市盈率不到11倍。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">巴菲特对苹果公司投入的本金是310亿美元，截至2022年末，这部分持仓的市值为1611亿美元，浮盈为420%，这还不包括过去7年收到的数量庞大的分红。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">巴菲特对华盛顿邮报的买入也堪称经典，这笔投资给巴菲特带来50倍以上的投资收益。1973年，美国股市处于恐慌当中，很多蓝筹股距离1969年高点时已经“腰斩”，华盛顿邮报的市值仅有8000万美元，但巴菲特判断这家公司至少价值4亿美金。巴菲特在1973年一口气买入华盛顿邮报8%以上的股份，他认定这是一个千载难逢的机会。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">巴菲特的投资策略是收集伟大的企业，“成功投资的关键是，在好公司价格远低于其价值时出手”，这是巴菲特从老师格雷厄姆那里学到的投资法则。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">巴菲特绝不会从不成气候的公司里挑选幸运儿，他瞄准的是杰出企业，并在价格打折的时候出手。如果巴菲特还停留在最初的用探测器捡“烟蒂”阶段，就不会拥有57年3.8万倍的投资收益，“长坡厚雪”企业的价值会随着时间的推移而呈指数级别的增长。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">对于巴菲特来说，集中投资明星企业并不意味着高风险，因为风险是来自于你不知道自己在做什么，就像他投资华盛顿邮报时，愿意将全部身家投资于该股。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181024589","content_text":"如果你在1965年给巴菲特1万美元，一直不离不弃，那么你现在就坐拥3.8亿美元。这一奇迹的背后，正是巴菲特反复阐述过的，“我们寻找那些业务简单易懂，可持续经营，具有令人垂涎的经济特征，拥有杰出才能和股东利益导向的管理层的大型公司。我们既必须以合理价格购买，又需要让企业的表现证明符合我们的预期。”事实上，如果拿去巴菲特最成功的15个投资案例，那么巴菲特的业绩也会流于平庸。这就是巴菲特所说的，野草会凋零，鲜花会盛开，随着时间的推移，只需要少数赢家就能创造奇迹。具体来看，无论是苹果还是可口可乐，能让巴菲特青睐有加的公司都具有一些共性：如长期稳定的经营史，客户忠诚且业务规模庞大，业务简单易懂且具有很强的抗颠覆性，“小成本大生意”的商业模式，管理层理性坦诚且具有股东利益导向。这些共性反映在财务指标上，就是长期稳定的高净资产收益率、高毛利率、高净利率、高现金流、高分红或者股票回购。当这类公司的特性不变时，巴菲特给自己的持有期限是“永远”。“剪掉鲜花，浇灌杂草”和从一朵平庸的花跳到另一朵平庸的花不是巴菲特的投资风格。1.长期稳定的经营史在巴菲特看来，尽管预测一家企业未来能否成功不那么简单，但企业一路走来的经营轨迹相对可靠，如果一家企业展示了持续稳定的经营历史，年复一年提供同样的产品和服务，推测其持续成功就是合理的。比如，可口可乐公司成立于1886年，巴菲特在1987年买入时，可口可乐公司已经是一家典型的百年老店。苹果公司成立于1976年，巴菲特在2016年买入时，苹果公司成立时间已达40年。吉列公司成立于1901年，巴菲特在1989年以可转换优先股的形式买入6亿美元，1991年巴菲特将可转换优先股换成普通股，2005年宝洁公司收购了吉列，巴菲特选择了以换股的形式将吉列股票换成宝洁股票。宝洁公司成立于1837年，更是名副其实的百年老店。穆迪公司成立于1900年，巴菲特在2000年首次出手买入穆迪评级公司时，穆迪也是一家百年老店。美国运通成立于1850年，巴菲特曾在1963年买入美国运通，后来又在1991年第二次买入美国运通。巴菲特所持有的非上市公司，无论是盖克保险还是禧诗糖果公司均拥有长期稳定的经营史，盖克保险成立于1936年，禧诗成立于1921年。在巴菲特历年致股东的信中，这两家公司均会作为理性投资者应如何选择公司的典型案例而高频出现。2.业务简单易懂且不易被颠覆在2022年的致股东的信中，巴菲特对已经持股超过35年的可口可乐赞誉有加。他写道，1994年伯克希尔从可口可乐公司收到现金分红为7500万美元，而到了2022年，分红已经增加到了7.04亿美元。“每一年的分红都有增长，就像每年过生日一样确定。”可口可乐公司自1886年成立以来，公司所销售的主要产品没有变过，在过去长达百年的时间中，可口可乐做到了以尽量低的价格和尽量快的速度在全世界培养消费者的饮用习惯，其独特的味道让人们形成味觉依赖。味道越独特的东西，顾客一旦习惯，则忠诚度越高，可口可乐的百年持续经营史让它在全球拥有庞大而忠诚的消费者群体。企业所拥有的宽阔护城河最终会反映在财务指标上。可口可乐公司在2018年～2022年的销售毛利率分别为61.9%、60.77%、59.31%、60.27%、58.14%；销售净利率分别为18.88%、24.11%、23.53%、25.36%、22.26%；净资产收益率分别为37.79%、49.61%、40.48%、46.2%和40.51%。苹果公司的初代智能手机自2007年发布后，就迅速占领了高端智能手机市场，巴菲特将苹果公司视为真正意义上的消费公司，而非高科技公司。巴菲特曾在接受媒体采访时说：“苹果产品的顾客忠诚度和黏性很高，愿意为苹果支付更高的价格，消费者都会重复消费，买新的产品替代已有的产品。”对长期投资者来说，苹果公司具有卓越的财务指标。在2018年到2022年的过去五年间，苹果公司的销售毛利率分别是38.34%、37.82%、38.23%、41.78%和43.31%，销售净利率分别为22.41%、21.24%、20.91%、25.88%和25.31%；净资产收益率分别为49.36%、55.92%、73.69%、147.44%和175.46%。巴菲特所持有的苹果公司、宝洁公司、禧诗糖果、可口可乐等公司均具有强大的抗颠覆性，这种护城河来自顾客长期购买所形成的经济商誉，是客户心中无数次由产品品质和个人体验带来的愉悦经历，所形成的普遍认同的良好声誉。巴菲特曾说过，好的经济商誉是企业经营中不断施惠的礼物，是企业超额利润的来源。除了消费企业的经济商誉外，巴菲特还认为，企业的护城河还来自不受利润管制的政府特许权，例如电视台，以及在一个行业作为低成本生产商的持久地位。穆迪评级公司和内布拉斯加家具店就分别拥有政府特许经营和低成本供应商护城河。巴菲特数次重申自己买入企业的标准是：规模够大、具有被验证的持续经营能力（那些对于未来做出的预测，我们毫无兴趣；对于所谓“困境反转”型公司，我们也没有兴趣）；在负债极少或没有负债的情况下，公司具有良好的净资产回报率；具备管理层；业务简明（如果有太多科技的成分，我们可能搞不明白）；明确的报价。3.管理层理性巴菲特在评估一家企业时，也会非常仔细地观察管理层，他尤其看重那些仅拥有窄护城河企业中管理层的作用。巴菲特在考察企业管理层时，特别看重三点：一是管理层是否理性？二是管理层是否对股东坦诚？三是管理层能否抗拒惯性驱使？巴菲特曾举过一个例子：37个失败的投资银行，它们都有一些擅长的优势，这些公司都由勤奋的人来领导，他们具有高智商，具有强烈的进取心，但他们都失败了，原因就是他们无法克制对他人的盲目模仿。连续阅读年报是认知管理层的重要方式。巴菲特认为，回顾过去几年的年报，尤其是仔细阅读公司管理层言及未来的策略，然后，比照今天的结果，看看原来的计划实现了多少？比照公司过去的策略和今天的策略，看看有何不同？看看他们的思想变化。巴菲特也建议将公司年报与同行其他公司年报比较。不过，巴菲特认为，仅凭管理层质量不足以做出投资决策，优秀的骑手只有在良马身上才有出色的表现，在劣马身上毫无作为，同样的管理层在那些具有优秀经济特征的公司里会取得好成绩，但如果他们在流沙中奔跑，就不会有任何进展。4.股价拥有安全边际股市周期性地被傻瓜所主导，给予巴菲特这样的长期投资者黄金般的买入机会。在2022年致股东的信中，巴菲特写道：股票在大多数时间以愚蠢的价格进行交易，不是太低就是太高，我们投资于公开交易股票的一个优势就是，我们偶尔能很容易地以便宜的价格买入企业，而在一级市场上对企业进行控股式的投资几乎从不以便宜的价格出售。巴菲特2016年出手买入苹果公司时，苹果股价距离2015年高峰回撤了约30%，很大程度上是因为市场认为苹果公司已经过高增长阶段流于乏味和平庸，但巴菲特却在此后三年内将苹果公司买成了伯克希尔第一大重仓股，苹果公司占伯克希尔整体仓位四成以上。2016年，苹果公司市值6000亿美金，公司持有现金及现金等价物和短期投资671亿美元，营业利润为460亿美元。对于二级市场的购买者来说，扣除现金及现金等价物后，苹果公司的市盈率不到11倍。巴菲特对苹果公司投入的本金是310亿美元，截至2022年末，这部分持仓的市值为1611亿美元，浮盈为420%，这还不包括过去7年收到的数量庞大的分红。巴菲特对华盛顿邮报的买入也堪称经典，这笔投资给巴菲特带来50倍以上的投资收益。1973年，美国股市处于恐慌当中，很多蓝筹股距离1969年高点时已经“腰斩”，华盛顿邮报的市值仅有8000万美元，但巴菲特判断这家公司至少价值4亿美金。巴菲特在1973年一口气买入华盛顿邮报8%以上的股份，他认定这是一个千载难逢的机会。巴菲特的投资策略是收集伟大的企业，“成功投资的关键是，在好公司价格远低于其价值时出手”，这是巴菲特从老师格雷厄姆那里学到的投资法则。巴菲特绝不会从不成气候的公司里挑选幸运儿，他瞄准的是杰出企业，并在价格打折的时候出手。如果巴菲特还停留在最初的用探测器捡“烟蒂”阶段，就不会拥有57年3.8万倍的投资收益，“长坡厚雪”企业的价值会随着时间的推移而呈指数级别的增长。对于巴菲特来说，集中投资明星企业并不意味着高风险，因为风险是来自于你不知道自己在做什么，就像他投资华盛顿邮报时，愿意将全部身家投资于该股。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1548,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":385285474,"gmtCreate":1613555045498,"gmtModify":1613555045498,"author":{"id":"75320946647408","authorId":"75320946647408","name":"余天天84","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/9226e5a6a66c3a2c81d7382a4becc647","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"75320946647408","authorIdStr":"75320946647408"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"美股先上港股跟上[捂脸]&nbsp;[捂脸]&nbsp;","listText":"美股先上港股跟上[捂脸]&nbsp;[捂脸]&nbsp;","text":"美股先上港股跟上[捂脸] [捂脸]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/385285474","repostId":"1135826374","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1135826374","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1613488055,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1135826374?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-16 23:07","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"字节跳动回应在美上市传闻：此消息不实","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135826374","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"2月16日晚，有媒体援引消息人士称字节跳动正就抖音在纽约上市进行初步商谈。对此，字节跳动回复称：此消息不实。知情人士称，抖音赴美上市相关讨论仍处于早期阶段，但字节跳动的投资者对该计划持支持态度。知情人","content":"<p>2月16日晚，<b>有媒体援引消息人士称字节跳动正就抖音在纽约上市进行初步商谈。对此，字节跳动回复称：此消息不实。</b></p><p>知情人士称，抖音赴美上市相关讨论仍处于早期阶段，但字节跳动的投资者对该计划持支持态度。知情人士称：“字节跳动投资者的普遍反应是‘为什么不呢？’”</p><p>毫无疑问，香港会为抖音上市而疯狂，这一点可以从快手上市中略窥一斑。但同样，抖音在美国上市也会很火爆，中国科技股近期的股价飙升就是最好的证明。</p><p>分析人士称，抖音在美国上市，与在香港上市并不相互排斥，因为字节跳动可以效仿<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">网易</a>等其他科技公司，在香港进行二次上市。如果抖音成功在美国上市，则将成为首家在美国IPO（首次公开招股）的中国社交媒体网络。</p><p>去年10月曾有报道称，字节跳动计划让抖音在香港上市。11月又有报道称，字节跳动计划将抖音与其新闻聚合应用“今日头条”和视频平台“西瓜视频”打包，在香港上市。</p><p>有数据显示，截至2020年8月，抖音的日活跃用户约为6亿。虽然用户数量略低于姊妹版App TikTok（抖音海外版），但抖音贡献了字节跳动2/3的广告收入。抖音于2016年上线，如今下载量已超过10亿次。</p><p>相比之下，拥有6.89亿日活跃用户的TikTok，在2020年为字节跳动贡献了10亿美元的营收。2020年，字节跳动营收约为370亿美元。</p><p>另一位知情人士称，抖音IPO对字节跳动来说是一个合乎逻辑的选择，因为这款App在营收源和利润方面更加成熟。字节跳动创始人兼CEO张一鸣也愿意等待最好的结果，而不希望TikTok以较低的估值过早上市。这位知情人士曾与张一鸣共事。</p><p>事实上，字节跳动一直在考虑剥离业务的不同选项。字节跳动成立于2012年，是中国最具价值的科技“独角兽”之一，估值接近1800亿美元，投资者包括一些全球最大的风险投资基金，如老虎环球、KKR、软银的愿景基金和红杉资本中国等。</p><p>当前，中国企业正争相吸引投资者的兴趣。有数据显示，去年多达30家中国注册公司，通过赴美IPO筹集了117亿美元资金，这是自2014年阿里巴巴IPO以来的最高纪录。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>字节跳动回应在美上市传闻：此消息不实</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n字节跳动回应在美上市传闻：此消息不实\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-02-16 23:07</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>2月16日晚，<b>有媒体援引消息人士称字节跳动正就抖音在纽约上市进行初步商谈。对此，字节跳动回复称：此消息不实。</b></p><p>知情人士称，抖音赴美上市相关讨论仍处于早期阶段，但字节跳动的投资者对该计划持支持态度。知情人士称：“字节跳动投资者的普遍反应是‘为什么不呢？’”</p><p>毫无疑问，香港会为抖音上市而疯狂，这一点可以从快手上市中略窥一斑。但同样，抖音在美国上市也会很火爆，中国科技股近期的股价飙升就是最好的证明。</p><p>分析人士称，抖音在美国上市，与在香港上市并不相互排斥，因为字节跳动可以效仿<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">网易</a>等其他科技公司，在香港进行二次上市。如果抖音成功在美国上市，则将成为首家在美国IPO（首次公开招股）的中国社交媒体网络。</p><p>去年10月曾有报道称，字节跳动计划让抖音在香港上市。11月又有报道称，字节跳动计划将抖音与其新闻聚合应用“今日头条”和视频平台“西瓜视频”打包，在香港上市。</p><p>有数据显示，截至2020年8月，抖音的日活跃用户约为6亿。虽然用户数量略低于姊妹版App TikTok（抖音海外版），但抖音贡献了字节跳动2/3的广告收入。抖音于2016年上线，如今下载量已超过10亿次。</p><p>相比之下，拥有6.89亿日活跃用户的TikTok，在2020年为字节跳动贡献了10亿美元的营收。2020年，字节跳动营收约为370亿美元。</p><p>另一位知情人士称，抖音IPO对字节跳动来说是一个合乎逻辑的选择，因为这款App在营收源和利润方面更加成熟。字节跳动创始人兼CEO张一鸣也愿意等待最好的结果，而不希望TikTok以较低的估值过早上市。这位知情人士曾与张一鸣共事。</p><p>事实上，字节跳动一直在考虑剥离业务的不同选项。字节跳动成立于2012年，是中国最具价值的科技“独角兽”之一，估值接近1800亿美元，投资者包括一些全球最大的风险投资基金，如老虎环球、KKR、软银的愿景基金和红杉资本中国等。</p><p>当前，中国企业正争相吸引投资者的兴趣。有数据显示，去年多达30家中国注册公司，通过赴美IPO筹集了117亿美元资金，这是自2014年阿里巴巴IPO以来的最高纪录。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1bf636ec8cc0b56a010568ee2f383262","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1135826374","content_text":"2月16日晚，有媒体援引消息人士称字节跳动正就抖音在纽约上市进行初步商谈。对此，字节跳动回复称：此消息不实。知情人士称，抖音赴美上市相关讨论仍处于早期阶段，但字节跳动的投资者对该计划持支持态度。知情人士称：“字节跳动投资者的普遍反应是‘为什么不呢？’”毫无疑问，香港会为抖音上市而疯狂，这一点可以从快手上市中略窥一斑。但同样，抖音在美国上市也会很火爆，中国科技股近期的股价飙升就是最好的证明。分析人士称，抖音在美国上市，与在香港上市并不相互排斥，因为字节跳动可以效仿阿里巴巴、京东和网易等其他科技公司，在香港进行二次上市。如果抖音成功在美国上市，则将成为首家在美国IPO（首次公开招股）的中国社交媒体网络。去年10月曾有报道称，字节跳动计划让抖音在香港上市。11月又有报道称，字节跳动计划将抖音与其新闻聚合应用“今日头条”和视频平台“西瓜视频”打包，在香港上市。有数据显示，截至2020年8月，抖音的日活跃用户约为6亿。虽然用户数量略低于姊妹版App 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