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05-21 23:48

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

“AI信仰”再掀狂澜！英伟达仍在定义AI牛市，华尔街憧憬市值破冲7万亿美元

05-01

太少了，应该2000美元价格。

闪迪财报炸裂却大跌！高盛：大幅上调目标价，股价终将走高

04-28

不用修订了，直接投降和谈。

消息人士：伊朗预计将很快提交修订版和平提案

04-21

$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ 美股不会跌的，今天还会低开高走的。

04-20

（极可能）

美国总统特朗普：“极不可能”延长与伊朗的停火协议

04-20

Replying to @浪潮上的小舢板:大佬，怎么分析出来的这个结论？//@浪潮上的小舢板:22日前后必跌

04-20

直接降息一个点

沃什明日出战听证会：从“鹰”转“鸽”能否说服国会？独立性与通胀预期成焦点

04-20

别谈了，直接打吧，要么直接投降。

特朗普：若有突破进展，愿同伊朗高级别领导人会面

04-14

$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ 连涨10天

04-10

$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ 要连涨8天

04-09

$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ 还涨?

04-07

我建议推迟三年后

国际油价快速下挫转跌，特朗普可能推迟对伊朗的“最后期限”

04-01

放过散户吧。。。

伊朗：霍尔木兹海峡不会开放，最高领导人尚未下达任何谈判许可

03-05

随着科学技术的发展电子行业的更新换代频率更快更高，硬件和软件相比，软件更新速度更高，因此硬件和软件的护城河更高，个人认为长期投资的话，硬件逻辑比软件更硬，投资首选硬件。

2025-08-04

2025-07-31

Replying to @酒吧里喝饮料的boy11:对一路狂跌你吃不消//@酒吧里喝饮料的boy11:它跌的你抗不住，你肯定要卖

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23:20","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"“AI信仰”再掀狂澜！英伟达仍在定义AI牛市，华尔街憧憬市值破冲7万亿美元","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2637337801","media":"智通财经","summary":"智通财经APP获悉，有着“地球最重要股票”以及“AI芯片霸主”称号的全球最高市值公司英伟达，在美东时间周三美股盘后公布又一份无比强劲的季度业绩以及未来业绩展望。在华尔街，分析师们对于“全球AI总龙头”英伟达的看涨情绪愈发火热，仅仅华尔街平均目标价就意味着英伟达市值有望超7万亿美元。截至发稿，英伟达股价盘初一度上扬至227美元，市值徘徊在5.35万亿美元附近。Moore将英伟达目标价从285美元小幅上调至288美元。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">5月21日，有着“地球最重要股票”以及“AI芯片霸主”称号的全球最高市值公司<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>，在美东时间周三美股盘后公布又一份无比强劲的季度业绩以及未来业绩展望。<strong>英伟达最新业绩可谓非常清楚地凸显全球AI算力基础设施建设狂潮远未停歇，并且正在从AI GPU/AI ASIC扩展到数据中心CPU、高性能网络基础设施、整机级别服务器集群、AI超级工厂和企业级大规模AI云计算系统。在华尔街，分析师们对于“全球AI总龙头”英伟达的看涨情绪愈发火热，仅仅华尔街平均目标价就意味着英伟达市值有望超7万亿美元。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">截至发稿，英伟达股价盘初一度上扬至227美元，市值徘徊在5.35万亿美元附近。截至2026年4月26日的英伟达2027财年第一财季(“即一季度”)业绩显示，营收同比增长85%至816.2亿美元，较分析师普遍预期高将近3.1%。核心业务——数据中心业务营收约752亿美元，贡献公司九成以上营收，和总营收均继续刷新单季最高纪录，显示AI算力需求仍是英伟达增长的绝对主线。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达此次给出的第二财季(“即二季度”)营收指引中值约910亿美元，再创单季历史纪录，显著高于分析师预期均值，但是低于华尔街最乐观预期——即960亿至980亿美元。<strong>不过，英伟达管理层特别说明，此项业绩指引未计入来自中国的任何数据中心计算业务营收，这意味着当前指引主要依靠中国以外市场需求支撑，也为未来潜在增量留下空间。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>值得注意的是，美国商务部已正式批准向包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>、字节跳动在内的10家中国巨头们出口英伟达H200 AI芯片，每位买家最高购买额度可达7.5万颗。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这些业绩与展望都在说明北美超大规模云厂商、AI大模型公司、企业AI云和工业物理AI需求并没有明显减速，所谓“AI Capex见顶”的担忧至少在英伟达订单与指引层面尚未得到验证。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">更重要的是，<strong>这次英伟达给华尔街的不是单一AI GPU或者显卡增长故事，而是AI工厂经济学的狂飙式扩展版图</strong>。花旗提到，英伟达将数据中心销售拆分为Hyperscale和ACIE，有助于提高可见度;<strong>这家芯片巨头还预计今年Vera CPU销售额达到200亿美元，并提出到2030年2000亿美元CPU TAM。这意味着英伟达正在从“AI GPU龙头”升级为“GPU+CPU+网络基础设施+机架级系统+CUDA开发者软件生态”的AI基础设施平台公司，甚至暴力切入过去由<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>这两大x86芯片巨头长期主导的数据中心服务器CPU价值池</strong>。</p><h2 id=\"id_703067357\">AI浪潮没有刹车键!英伟达再度征服华尔街</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">对于一家体量如此庞大的公司而言，英伟达最新业绩和指引可谓令华尔街分析师们印象极其深刻，散户投资者们显然也注意到了这一点，分析师们普遍称赞这家由黄仁勋领导的科技巨头正在全线开足马力。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">华尔街对英伟达仍是强烈看涨。MarketBeat显示，<strong>54位分析师给出的12个月平均目标价为295.10美元，最高目标价为500美元;对应当前正在交易的截至发稿股价223.47美元，平均目标价意味着约32.1%潜在上行，最高目标价意味着约123.7%的惊人潜在上行空间。295.10美元平均目标价对应约7.17万亿美元市值;500美元最高目标价对应约12.14万亿美元市值。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这些关于潜在市值与涨幅空间数字的含义可谓非常夸张：<strong>华尔街最高目标价隐含英伟达可能成为一个超过12万亿美元级别的公司，大约相当于把当前市值再翻一倍多。此前华尔街分析师们平均予以的1万亿美元到5万亿美元的平均市值关口，英伟达均已越过，因此投资者们相信7万亿美元将是下一个重要市值关口。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e12b049d69ece78fe763bfd70627ce7e\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"200\" tg-height=\"120\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">花旗资深分析师Atif Malik在给客户们的一份报告中写道：“英伟达正在通过提供两个子类别来提高其数据中心销售额的可见度：Hyperscale和ACIE(AI云、工业与企业)，我们认为这有利于进行比较。英伟达CEO 黄仁勋预计今年Vera CPU销售额将达到200亿美元(我们认为主要包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta</a>和微软)，<strong>并预计到2030年将形成一个新的2000亿美元CPU总潜在市场。此前2025年至2027年超过1万亿美元的数据中心销售额并未包括Vera CPU和LPX贡献，这使我们将FY27/28/29每股收益预期分别上调8%/6%/8%。此外，英伟达管理层似乎一致认为，凭借更优的性能/token指标，它将在AI大模型公司OpenAI和Anthropic，甚至SpaceXAI中扩大份额。</strong>”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>花旗的Malik继续给予英伟达“买入”评级，目标价则设定为300美元</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>的资深分析师Joseph Moore将此次业绩类比为最顶级高尔夫球手，并称其结果是“直上球道”。Moore在给客户的一份报告中写道：“英伟达公布的数据高于我们的预期和预览，所有指标均实现干净利落的超预期和上调业绩展望指引，未来Vera Rubin的大幅爬坡应能证明他们的主张，即英伟达系的AI超级硬件体系在AI工厂经济学方面处于领先地位。”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Moore将英伟达目标价从285美元小幅上调至288美元。他表示，尽管这家市值一度高达5.5万亿美元的科技巨头的“球门柱总是在移动”，但该公司一直证明自己优于竞争对手。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Moore补充称：“当然，这并不意味着比较毫无意义，因为4000亿美元运行率的AI资本投资不可能在几个季度内完全由Vera Rubin满足，因此Blackwell架构AI GPU系列算力集群与其他公司下一代产品之间的比较，仍然是考虑因素中的重要部分。但我们相信英伟达长期以来所揭示的一个真理：在被证明并非如此之前，更低成本的硅片尚未被证明能够带来更低的每token成本，而拥有同类AI基础设施供应商的最佳能力，对于希望获得最长且最有效寿命加之最完整生态系统的客户来说，是一个相当大的优势。”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EVR\">Evercore</a> ISI分析师Mark Lipacis 指出，资本回报大幅增加(800亿美元回购、季度股息从每股0.01美元提高至每股0.25美元)表明其盈利倍数可能正在扩张。Lipacis解释称：<strong>“我们预计，随着公司提高资本回报计划——股息从每股0.01美元增加至0.25美元，并在现有390亿美元基础上宣布新的800亿美元回购计划，同时计划在2026日历年返还50%的自由现金流(在我们看来，2027日历年及以后比例会更高)——英伟达未来12个月市盈率将开始大幅扩张。”</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Lipacis将其目标价从352美元大幅上调至413美元。他还指出，英伟达的CPU业务似乎已经准备好腾飞。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Lipacis补充称：“英伟达强调，其预计将在2026日历年出货200亿美元独立出货的Vera CPU(该产品已于上周开始出货)——值得注意的是，这不包括机架级系统出货中作为headnode附带级别的CPU。更广泛来看，有着‘AI教父’称号英伟达CEO黄仁勋强调存在一个2000亿美元CPU总潜在市场，这与我们高于市场一致共识区间的2030年1900亿至2750亿美元市场规模测算更为强劲且乐观。我们期待黄仁勋在Computex的主题演讲成为催化剂，披露更多关于公司CPU战略的细节。”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Seeking Alpha分析师Julia Ostian 表示，运营指标“看起来令人印象深刻”，Blackwell爬坡并未像一些人担心的那样拖累盈利能力。Ostian通过电子邮件表示：“英伟达仍然是一家全球最为卓越的科技公司，第二季度910亿美元的史无前例营收预期(如果实现，将意味着环比超预期11%)就是证明。”</p><h2 id=\"id_1348843923\">万亿美元AI<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600122\">宏图</a>即将成为现实!地球最重要股票仍在定义AI超级牛市</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">华尔街对英伟达的主流目标价已经把它定价为7万亿美元级公司;<strong>最激进聚合目标价则把它推向12万亿美元级别;而具名高目标价的核心逻辑，都是英伟达从GPU龙头升级为“AI工厂全栈基础设施平台”——GPU、CPU、网络、机架级系统、软件生态和资本回报共同支撑估值扩张，预期AI加速计算基础设施支出到2030年可能达到3万亿—4万亿美元。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">AI智能体风靡全球之际，AI算力投资主线正在从“围绕AI GPU的单点算力竞赛”转向“AI智能体驱动的全栈算力系统”，下<strong>一轮超额阿尔法收益也将不再仅仅属于AI GPU/AI ASIC领域最强龙头名单，而会系统性扩散到数据中心CPU、DRAM/NAND/HBM存储、AI PCB、液冷系统、数据中心光互连系统、ABF载板/玻璃基板与广泛晶圆代工等全栈AI算力基础设施层。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在4月30日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>以及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>这三家云计算超级巨头同一夜交出亮眼成绩单，凸显出受益于AI大浪潮的云计算业务的超预期爆发速度让华尔街重新定价AI的商业回报。摩根士丹利分析师团队发布的最新研报显示，<strong>预计五大超大规模科技巨头们(亚马逊、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">谷歌</a>、Meta、微软、甲骨文)2026年合计资本开支约8000亿美元，2027年则有望突破1.1万亿美元，较此前预测的9500亿美元再度上调</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">摩根士丹利的分析师们强调，<strong>这些庞大资金投入背后的核心逻辑在于：先重投入、建产能，再靠基于AI算力资源的规模化商业营收和ROIC回收;云计算积压订单与AI应用Token的暴增，正是这套逻辑能跑通的最直接证据，这些巨头们云计算业务的超预期爆发速度让华尔街重新定价AI的商业回报。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达CEO黄仁勋今年早些时候在GTC大会上展现出英伟达在AI算力基础设施领域的“前所未有AI算力创收超级宏图”，他告知全球投资者们，在Blackwell架构GPU算力强劲需求以及即将量产的Vera Rubin架构AI算力体系更加炸裂式强劲需求推动之下，<strong>其在人工智能芯片领域的未来营收规模到2027年可能至少达到1万亿美元(即 2025-2027年AI 基础设施整体营收)，远远高于上一次GTC大会抛出的到2026年实现5000亿美元AI算力基础设施蓝图。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>英伟达已经不只是半导体龙头公司，而是全球AI资本开支周期以及引领全球AI牛市轨迹的价格锚、情绪锚和盈利锚：</strong>它的业绩决定了市场如何看待AI需求强度，它的供应链牵动<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>、SK海力士、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASML\">ASML</a>(阿斯麦)等上游半导体设备与晶圆厂基本面增长前景，以及数据中心CPU、HBM/NAND/HDD存储、2.5D/3D先进封装、液冷散热系统、光互连供应链、数据中心电力等一整个AI算力基础设施链条，它的涨跌幅则显著影响到纳斯达克、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>指数牛市轨迹和全球股票市场风险偏好。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此外，值得注意的是，虽然英伟达基本面继续超预期，但仓位已经极度拥挤，这也意味着英伟达涨势未必以过去那种垂直拉升方式延续，但中长期趋势并未被破坏。<strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>交易台称英伟达仓位拥挤度在1到10分中达到9，且虽然空头名义规模约625亿美元，但多头持有已经非常普遍;同时机构大量备兑看涨期权使交易商处于long gamma状态，压制短线波动。因此，短期股价钝化更像是“高预期、高仓位、高Gamma”下的交易结构问题，而不是AI需求转弱。</strong>只要AI模型公司和Hyperscalers继续投入AI工厂，Blackwell/Rubin/Vera CPU持续放量，且每token成本优势仍由英伟达系统级架构定义，英伟达的盈利天花板仍在上移。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>“AI信仰”再掀狂澜！英伟达仍在定义AI牛市，华尔街憧憬市值破冲7万亿美元</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“AI信仰”再掀狂澜！英伟达仍在定义AI牛市，华尔街憧憬市值破冲7万亿美元\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-05-21 23:20 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1444770.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>5月21日，有着“地球最重要股票”以及“AI芯片霸主”称号的全球最高市值公司英伟达，在美东时间周三美股盘后公布又一份无比强劲的季度业绩以及未来业绩展望。英伟达最新业绩可谓非常清楚地凸显全球AI算力基础设施建设狂潮远未停歇，并且正在从AI GPU/AI ASIC扩展到数据中心CPU、高性能网络基础设施、整机级别服务器集群、AI超级工厂和企业级大规模AI云计算系统。在华尔街，分析师们对于“全球AI总...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1444770.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55eb327f580527889cf30bafa92692ae","relate_stocks":{"LU1791710582.SGD":"Fidelity Global Demographics A-ACC-SGD (SGD/USD hedged)","LU1116320737.USD":"BGF SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL ENHANCED EQUITY YIELD \"A6\" (USD) INC","IE0034235303.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US RESEARCH ENHANCED CORE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B19Z8W00.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US LARGE CAP GROWTH \"A\" INC","LU1791710400.SGD":"Fidelity Global Demographics A-ACC-SGD","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","LU0390134368.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL GROWTH \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2054465674.USD":"UBS (LUX) KEY SELEC SICAV DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION T \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","LU0215105999.USD":"SCHRODER ISF GLOBAL EQUITY \"A\" ACC","LU2403377893.USD":"ALLIANZ SELECT INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (USD) INC","LU0689472784.USD":"安联收益及增长基金Cl AM AT 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INC"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1444770.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2637337801","content_text":"5月21日，有着“地球最重要股票”以及“AI芯片霸主”称号的全球最高市值公司英伟达，在美东时间周三美股盘后公布又一份无比强劲的季度业绩以及未来业绩展望。英伟达最新业绩可谓非常清楚地凸显全球AI算力基础设施建设狂潮远未停歇，并且正在从AI GPU/AI ASIC扩展到数据中心CPU、高性能网络基础设施、整机级别服务器集群、AI超级工厂和企业级大规模AI云计算系统。在华尔街，分析师们对于“全球AI总龙头”英伟达的看涨情绪愈发火热，仅仅华尔街平均目标价就意味着英伟达市值有望超7万亿美元。截至发稿，英伟达股价盘初一度上扬至227美元，市值徘徊在5.35万亿美元附近。截至2026年4月26日的英伟达2027财年第一财季(“即一季度”)业绩显示，营收同比增长85%至816.2亿美元，较分析师普遍预期高将近3.1%。核心业务——数据中心业务营收约752亿美元，贡献公司九成以上营收，和总营收均继续刷新单季最高纪录，显示AI算力需求仍是英伟达增长的绝对主线。英伟达此次给出的第二财季(“即二季度”)营收指引中值约910亿美元，再创单季历史纪录，显著高于分析师预期均值，但是低于华尔街最乐观预期——即960亿至980亿美元。不过，英伟达管理层特别说明，此项业绩指引未计入来自中国的任何数据中心计算业务营收，这意味着当前指引主要依靠中国以外市场需求支撑，也为未来潜在增量留下空间。值得注意的是，美国商务部已正式批准向包括阿里巴巴、腾讯、字节跳动在内的10家中国巨头们出口英伟达H200 AI芯片，每位买家最高购买额度可达7.5万颗。这些业绩与展望都在说明北美超大规模云厂商、AI大模型公司、企业AI云和工业物理AI需求并没有明显减速，所谓“AI Capex见顶”的担忧至少在英伟达订单与指引层面尚未得到验证。更重要的是，这次英伟达给华尔街的不是单一AI GPU或者显卡增长故事，而是AI工厂经济学的狂飙式扩展版图。花旗提到，英伟达将数据中心销售拆分为Hyperscale和ACIE，有助于提高可见度;这家芯片巨头还预计今年Vera CPU销售额达到200亿美元，并提出到2030年2000亿美元CPU TAM。这意味着英伟达正在从“AI GPU龙头”升级为“GPU+CPU+网络基础设施+机架级系统+CUDA开发者软件生态”的AI基础设施平台公司，甚至暴力切入过去由英特尔与AMD这两大x86芯片巨头长期主导的数据中心服务器CPU价值池。AI浪潮没有刹车键!英伟达再度征服华尔街对于一家体量如此庞大的公司而言，英伟达最新业绩和指引可谓令华尔街分析师们印象极其深刻，散户投资者们显然也注意到了这一点，分析师们普遍称赞这家由黄仁勋领导的科技巨头正在全线开足马力。华尔街对英伟达仍是强烈看涨。MarketBeat显示，54位分析师给出的12个月平均目标价为295.10美元，最高目标价为500美元;对应当前正在交易的截至发稿股价223.47美元，平均目标价意味着约32.1%潜在上行，最高目标价意味着约123.7%的惊人潜在上行空间。295.10美元平均目标价对应约7.17万亿美元市值;500美元最高目标价对应约12.14万亿美元市值。这些关于潜在市值与涨幅空间数字的含义可谓非常夸张：华尔街最高目标价隐含英伟达可能成为一个超过12万亿美元级别的公司，大约相当于把当前市值再翻一倍多。此前华尔街分析师们平均予以的1万亿美元到5万亿美元的平均市值关口，英伟达均已越过，因此投资者们相信7万亿美元将是下一个重要市值关口。花旗资深分析师Atif Malik在给客户们的一份报告中写道：“英伟达正在通过提供两个子类别来提高其数据中心销售额的可见度：Hyperscale和ACIE(AI云、工业与企业)，我们认为这有利于进行比较。英伟达CEO 黄仁勋预计今年Vera CPU销售额将达到200亿美元(我们认为主要包括Meta和微软)，并预计到2030年将形成一个新的2000亿美元CPU总潜在市场。此前2025年至2027年超过1万亿美元的数据中心销售额并未包括Vera CPU和LPX贡献，这使我们将FY27/28/29每股收益预期分别上调8%/6%/8%。此外，英伟达管理层似乎一致认为，凭借更优的性能/token指标，它将在AI大模型公司OpenAI和Anthropic，甚至SpaceXAI中扩大份额。”花旗的Malik继续给予英伟达“买入”评级，目标价则设定为300美元。摩根士丹利的资深分析师Joseph Moore将此次业绩类比为最顶级高尔夫球手，并称其结果是“直上球道”。Moore在给客户的一份报告中写道：“英伟达公布的数据高于我们的预期和预览，所有指标均实现干净利落的超预期和上调业绩展望指引，未来Vera Rubin的大幅爬坡应能证明他们的主张，即英伟达系的AI超级硬件体系在AI工厂经济学方面处于领先地位。”Moore将英伟达目标价从285美元小幅上调至288美元。他表示，尽管这家市值一度高达5.5万亿美元的科技巨头的“球门柱总是在移动”，但该公司一直证明自己优于竞争对手。Moore补充称：“当然，这并不意味着比较毫无意义，因为4000亿美元运行率的AI资本投资不可能在几个季度内完全由Vera Rubin满足，因此Blackwell架构AI GPU系列算力集群与其他公司下一代产品之间的比较，仍然是考虑因素中的重要部分。但我们相信英伟达长期以来所揭示的一个真理：在被证明并非如此之前，更低成本的硅片尚未被证明能够带来更低的每token成本，而拥有同类AI基础设施供应商的最佳能力，对于希望获得最长且最有效寿命加之最完整生态系统的客户来说，是一个相当大的优势。”Evercore ISI分析师Mark Lipacis 指出，资本回报大幅增加(800亿美元回购、季度股息从每股0.01美元提高至每股0.25美元)表明其盈利倍数可能正在扩张。Lipacis解释称：“我们预计，随着公司提高资本回报计划——股息从每股0.01美元增加至0.25美元，并在现有390亿美元基础上宣布新的800亿美元回购计划，同时计划在2026日历年返还50%的自由现金流(在我们看来，2027日历年及以后比例会更高)——英伟达未来12个月市盈率将开始大幅扩张。”Lipacis将其目标价从352美元大幅上调至413美元。他还指出，英伟达的CPU业务似乎已经准备好腾飞。Lipacis补充称：“英伟达强调，其预计将在2026日历年出货200亿美元独立出货的Vera CPU(该产品已于上周开始出货)——值得注意的是，这不包括机架级系统出货中作为headnode附带级别的CPU。更广泛来看，有着‘AI教父’称号英伟达CEO黄仁勋强调存在一个2000亿美元CPU总潜在市场，这与我们高于市场一致共识区间的2030年1900亿至2750亿美元市场规模测算更为强劲且乐观。我们期待黄仁勋在Computex的主题演讲成为催化剂，披露更多关于公司CPU战略的细节。”Seeking Alpha分析师Julia Ostian 表示，运营指标“看起来令人印象深刻”，Blackwell爬坡并未像一些人担心的那样拖累盈利能力。Ostian通过电子邮件表示：“英伟达仍然是一家全球最为卓越的科技公司，第二季度910亿美元的史无前例营收预期(如果实现，将意味着环比超预期11%)就是证明。”万亿美元AI宏图即将成为现实!地球最重要股票仍在定义AI超级牛市华尔街对英伟达的主流目标价已经把它定价为7万亿美元级公司;最激进聚合目标价则把它推向12万亿美元级别;而具名高目标价的核心逻辑，都是英伟达从GPU龙头升级为“AI工厂全栈基础设施平台”——GPU、CPU、网络、机架级系统、软件生态和资本回报共同支撑估值扩张，预期AI加速计算基础设施支出到2030年可能达到3万亿—4万亿美元。AI智能体风靡全球之际，AI算力投资主线正在从“围绕AI GPU的单点算力竞赛”转向“AI智能体驱动的全栈算力系统”，下一轮超额阿尔法收益也将不再仅仅属于AI GPU/AI ASIC领域最强龙头名单，而会系统性扩散到数据中心CPU、DRAM/NAND/HBM存储、AI PCB、液冷系统、数据中心光互连系统、ABF载板/玻璃基板与广泛晶圆代工等全栈AI算力基础设施层。在4月30日，微软、谷歌以及亚马逊这三家云计算超级巨头同一夜交出亮眼成绩单，凸显出受益于AI大浪潮的云计算业务的超预期爆发速度让华尔街重新定价AI的商业回报。摩根士丹利分析师团队发布的最新研报显示，预计五大超大规模科技巨头们(亚马逊、谷歌、Meta、微软、甲骨文)2026年合计资本开支约8000亿美元，2027年则有望突破1.1万亿美元，较此前预测的9500亿美元再度上调。摩根士丹利的分析师们强调，这些庞大资金投入背后的核心逻辑在于：先重投入、建产能，再靠基于AI算力资源的规模化商业营收和ROIC回收;云计算积压订单与AI应用Token的暴增，正是这套逻辑能跑通的最直接证据，这些巨头们云计算业务的超预期爆发速度让华尔街重新定价AI的商业回报。英伟达CEO黄仁勋今年早些时候在GTC大会上展现出英伟达在AI算力基础设施领域的“前所未有AI算力创收超级宏图”，他告知全球投资者们，在Blackwell架构GPU算力强劲需求以及即将量产的Vera Rubin架构AI算力体系更加炸裂式强劲需求推动之下，其在人工智能芯片领域的未来营收规模到2027年可能至少达到1万亿美元(即 2025-2027年AI 基础设施整体营收)，远远高于上一次GTC大会抛出的到2026年实现5000亿美元AI算力基础设施蓝图。英伟达已经不只是半导体龙头公司，而是全球AI资本开支周期以及引领全球AI牛市轨迹的价格锚、情绪锚和盈利锚：它的业绩决定了市场如何看待AI需求强度，它的供应链牵动台积电、SK海力士、美光、ASML(阿斯麦)等上游半导体设备与晶圆厂基本面增长前景，以及数据中心CPU、HBM/NAND/HDD存储、2.5D/3D先进封装、液冷散热系统、光互连供应链、数据中心电力等一整个AI算力基础设施链条，它的涨跌幅则显著影响到纳斯达克、标普500指数牛市轨迹和全球股票市场风险偏好。此外，值得注意的是，虽然英伟达基本面继续超预期，但仓位已经极度拥挤，这也意味着英伟达涨势未必以过去那种垂直拉升方式延续，但中长期趋势并未被破坏。高盛交易台称英伟达仓位拥挤度在1到10分中达到9，且虽然空头名义规模约625亿美元，但多头持有已经非常普遍;同时机构大量备兑看涨期权使交易商处于long gamma状态，压制短线波动。因此，短期股价钝化更像是“高预期、高仓位、高Gamma”下的交易结构问题，而不是AI需求转弱。只要AI模型公司和Hyperscalers继续投入AI工厂，Blackwell/Rubin/Vera CPU持续放量，且每token成本优势仍由英伟达系统级架构定义，英伟达的盈利天花板仍在上移。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDG":0.6,"NVDQ":0.6,"NVDL":0.6,"NVD2.UK":0.6,"NVIW.SI":0.6,"NVYY":0.6,"META":0.6,"ANV":0.6,"NVDX":0.6,"3NVD.UK":0.6,"NVDS":0.6,"NVDS.UK":0.6,"NVDD":0.6,"2NVD.UK":0.6,"MSFT":0.6,"NVDO":0.6,"NVD":0.6,"DIPS":0.6,"07788":0.6,"07388":0.6,"AAPL":0.6,"NVD3.UK":0.6,"GOOG":0.6,"NVDW":0.6,"NVDA":1.99,"AMZN":0.6,"NVII":0.6,"NVDB":0.6,"NVDY":0.6,"SNVD.UK":0.6,"TSLA":0.6,"NVDU":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":83,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":559506194937120,"gmtCreate":1777629898616,"gmtModify":1777629901583,"author":{"id":"4210522535662642","authorId":"4210522535662642","name":"maxitong","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4210522535662642","authorIdStr":"4210522535662642"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"太少了，应该2000美元价格。","listText":"太少了，应该2000美元价格。","text":"太少了，应该2000美元价格。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/559506194937120","repostId":"2632618514","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2632618514","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1777623900,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2632618514?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-05-01 16:25","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"闪迪财报炸裂却大跌！高盛：大幅上调目标价，股价终将走高","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2632618514","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"尽管闪迪股价盘后一度下跌6%，分析师认为这是前期预期过高所致，并将12个月目标价从700美元大幅上调至1200美元，EPS预测平均上调约55%。短期的下跌，更多是情绪和仓位的释放，而非基本面的问题。“我们预计股价最终将走高。”","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>尽管闪迪股价盘后一度下跌6%，分析师认为这是前期预期过高所致，并将12个月目标价从700美元大幅上调至1200美元，EPS预测平均上调约55%。短期的下跌，更多是情绪和仓位的释放，而非基本面的问题。“我们预计股价最终将走高。”</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">财报和指引双双炸裂，股价却先跌为敬——这背后，藏着一个关于“预期已经太高”的市场逻辑。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据追风交易台消息，4月30日，闪迪发布了2026财年第一季度财报。当晚，一份来自华尔街的研究报告随即出炉，对这份财报及公司前景作出详细解读。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛认为短期的下跌，更多是情绪和仓位的释放，而非基本面的问题。该行表示，“我们预计股价最终将走高”，并将12个月目标价从700美元大幅上调至1200美元，EPS预测平均上调约55%。</p><h2 id=\"id_2995369986\" style=\"text-align: left;\">为什么“炸裂财报”换来下跌？</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">财报数据本身没有任何悬念——全面超预期，而且超出幅度相当惊人。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">闪迪第一季度营收59.5亿美元，比分析师预期的51.01亿美元高出16.6%，比市场整体预期的47.81亿美元高出24.5%。毛利率达到78.4%，比分析师预期的69.8%高出近9个百分点。非GAAP每股收益23.41美元，比分析师预期的17.00美元高出37.7%，比市场整体预期的15.11美元高出近55%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">然而，股价盘后一度下跌6%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在财报发布前，闪迪股价已经经历了一轮大幅拉升——NAND存储供需偏紧、数据中心SSD需求爆发、行业定价预期持续走强，这些利好早已被市场提前消化。投资者的预期，在财报发布前已经被推到了相当高的位置。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">用报告的原话来说：“我们认为，由于股价在财报前大幅上涨，投资者预期已经显著提升。”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>换句话说，财报再好，也需要超过“已经很高的预期”，才能推动股价进一步上行。短期的下跌，更多是情绪和仓位的释放，而非基本面的问题。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">报告明确表示：<strong>“尽管股价初期下跌6%，我们预计股价最终将走高。”</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_775125038\" style=\"text-align: left;\">二季度指引：再度大幅超预期</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">如果说一季度财报是“超预期”，那二季度指引则是“再度超预期”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">闪迪给出的二季度营收指引中值为80亿美元（区间77.5亿至82.5亿美元），比分析师预期的66.49亿美元高出20.3%，比市场整体预期的69.68亿美元高出14.8%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>毛利率指引为80%，比分析师预期的74.5%高出约5.5个百分点。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">非GAAP每股收益指引区间为30至33美元，中值31.50美元，比分析师预期的24.21美元高出30.1%，比市场整体预期的25.96美元高出21.3%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">环比来看，营收指引中值较一季度实际营收增长约34.5%，同比增幅高达372%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>这组数字，几乎没有留下任何可以“失望”的空间。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_385914130\" style=\"text-align: left;\">420亿美元供应协议：锁定未来，但还需观察</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">财报中另一个值得关注的信息，是闪迪披露的“新商业模式”（NBMs，New Business Models）进展。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">简单来说，闪迪正在与客户签订长期供应协议——客户提前锁定供货，闪迪获得稳定、可预期的收入。这类似于“预售+长约”的模式，对双方都有好处：客户不用担心供货紧张，闪迪则能提前锁定收入和利润。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">目前，闪迪已签署五份此类协议，并正在与其他客户积极谈判。其中三份合同的总合同价值达到420亿美元，包含110亿美元的保障性收入和4亿美元的预付款。这三份协议覆盖了闪迪FY27计划产能的约35%，管理层表示未来有望进一步提升这一比例。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">报告对此的评价是：“我们认为这些协议是积极的第一步，但在获得更多关于协议细节和客户范围的信息之前，现在宣布行业结构性转变还为时过早。”</p><h2 id=\"id_3076123290\" style=\"text-align: left;\">NAND供需：持续偏紧，毛利率仍有上行空间</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">闪迪管理层在财报电话会上明确表示，NAND行业在整个2026年及以后将持续处于供给偏紧状态。公司目前没有计划改变约20%的年度比特供给增速。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">与此同时，企业级市场需求正在加速——2026年企业级比特需求增速预计达到60%以上的高位。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">报告认为，在供给受限、需求加速的双重驱动下，闪迪的毛利率仍有进一步提升空间，尽管在公司已给出约80%毛利率指引的背景下，后续预期上调的幅度可能会趋于收窄。</p><h2 id=\"id_2946426395\" style=\"text-align: left;\">企业级SSD：从小基数起步，份额提升空间大</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">闪迪的企业级SSD（eSSD）业务正在快速成长。目前，数据中心产品已占公司总营收的25%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在产品层面，闪迪已完成TLC企业级固态硬盘对多家超大规模云计算客户的认证，并计划在今年6月季度开始出货QLC企业级固态硬盘。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">报告判断：“我们认为，闪迪将在未来几个季度内，从相对较低的基数出发，在这一市场中获得显著的份额提升。”</p><h2 id=\"id_1695656664\" style=\"text-align: left;\">目标价大幅上调，EPS预测全面上修</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">基于上述判断，<strong>报告将闪迪12个月目标价从700美元大幅上调至1200美元，上调幅度达71%。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf0385faa91620423a162b242868d951\" tg-width=\"728\" tg-height=\"684\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">目标价基于22倍市盈率（倍数不变），对应的归一化EPS估算从32美元上调至55美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">以报告发布时的股价1096.51美元计算，目标价对应的潜在上涨空间约为9.4%至9.8%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">EPS预测方面，报告将各年度预测平均上调约55%：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">CY2026年EPS预测从101.90美元上调至155.00美元，上调52.1%</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">CY2027年EPS预测从127.50美元上调至207.00美元，上调62.3%</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">CY2028年EPS预测从120.00美元上调至177.00美元，上调47.5%</p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: left;\">报告同时指出，对美光也预计会有正面反应，因为美光同样有NAND终端市场敞口。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>闪迪财报炸裂却大跌！高盛：大幅上调目标价，股价终将走高</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n闪迪财报炸裂却大跌！高盛：大幅上调目标价，股价终将走高\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-05-01 16:25</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>尽管闪迪股价盘后一度下跌6%，分析师认为这是前期预期过高所致，并将12个月目标价从700美元大幅上调至1200美元，EPS预测平均上调约55%。短期的下跌，更多是情绪和仓位的释放，而非基本面的问题。“我们预计股价最终将走高。”</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">财报和指引双双炸裂，股价却先跌为敬——这背后，藏着一个关于“预期已经太高”的市场逻辑。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据追风交易台消息，4月30日，闪迪发布了2026财年第一季度财报。当晚，一份来自华尔街的研究报告随即出炉，对这份财报及公司前景作出详细解读。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛认为短期的下跌，更多是情绪和仓位的释放，而非基本面的问题。该行表示，“我们预计股价最终将走高”，并将12个月目标价从700美元大幅上调至1200美元，EPS预测平均上调约55%。</p><h2 id=\"id_2995369986\" style=\"text-align: left;\">为什么“炸裂财报”换来下跌？</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">财报数据本身没有任何悬念——全面超预期，而且超出幅度相当惊人。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">闪迪第一季度营收59.5亿美元，比分析师预期的51.01亿美元高出16.6%，比市场整体预期的47.81亿美元高出24.5%。毛利率达到78.4%，比分析师预期的69.8%高出近9个百分点。非GAAP每股收益23.41美元，比分析师预期的17.00美元高出37.7%，比市场整体预期的15.11美元高出近55%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">然而，股价盘后一度下跌6%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在财报发布前，闪迪股价已经经历了一轮大幅拉升——NAND存储供需偏紧、数据中心SSD需求爆发、行业定价预期持续走强，这些利好早已被市场提前消化。投资者的预期，在财报发布前已经被推到了相当高的位置。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">用报告的原话来说：“我们认为，由于股价在财报前大幅上涨，投资者预期已经显著提升。”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>换句话说，财报再好，也需要超过“已经很高的预期”，才能推动股价进一步上行。短期的下跌，更多是情绪和仓位的释放，而非基本面的问题。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">报告明确表示：<strong>“尽管股价初期下跌6%，我们预计股价最终将走高。”</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_775125038\" style=\"text-align: left;\">二季度指引：再度大幅超预期</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">如果说一季度财报是“超预期”，那二季度指引则是“再度超预期”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">闪迪给出的二季度营收指引中值为80亿美元（区间77.5亿至82.5亿美元），比分析师预期的66.49亿美元高出20.3%，比市场整体预期的69.68亿美元高出14.8%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>毛利率指引为80%，比分析师预期的74.5%高出约5.5个百分点。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">非GAAP每股收益指引区间为30至33美元，中值31.50美元，比分析师预期的24.21美元高出30.1%，比市场整体预期的25.96美元高出21.3%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">环比来看，营收指引中值较一季度实际营收增长约34.5%，同比增幅高达372%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>这组数字，几乎没有留下任何可以“失望”的空间。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_385914130\" style=\"text-align: left;\">420亿美元供应协议：锁定未来，但还需观察</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">财报中另一个值得关注的信息，是闪迪披露的“新商业模式”（NBMs，New Business Models）进展。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">简单来说，闪迪正在与客户签订长期供应协议——客户提前锁定供货，闪迪获得稳定、可预期的收入。这类似于“预售+长约”的模式，对双方都有好处：客户不用担心供货紧张，闪迪则能提前锁定收入和利润。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">目前，闪迪已签署五份此类协议，并正在与其他客户积极谈判。其中三份合同的总合同价值达到420亿美元，包含110亿美元的保障性收入和4亿美元的预付款。这三份协议覆盖了闪迪FY27计划产能的约35%，管理层表示未来有望进一步提升这一比例。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">报告对此的评价是：“我们认为这些协议是积极的第一步，但在获得更多关于协议细节和客户范围的信息之前，现在宣布行业结构性转变还为时过早。”</p><h2 id=\"id_3076123290\" style=\"text-align: left;\">NAND供需：持续偏紧，毛利率仍有上行空间</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">闪迪管理层在财报电话会上明确表示，NAND行业在整个2026年及以后将持续处于供给偏紧状态。公司目前没有计划改变约20%的年度比特供给增速。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">与此同时，企业级市场需求正在加速——2026年企业级比特需求增速预计达到60%以上的高位。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">报告认为，在供给受限、需求加速的双重驱动下，闪迪的毛利率仍有进一步提升空间，尽管在公司已给出约80%毛利率指引的背景下，后续预期上调的幅度可能会趋于收窄。</p><h2 id=\"id_2946426395\" style=\"text-align: left;\">企业级SSD：从小基数起步，份额提升空间大</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">闪迪的企业级SSD（eSSD）业务正在快速成长。目前，数据中心产品已占公司总营收的25%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在产品层面，闪迪已完成TLC企业级固态硬盘对多家超大规模云计算客户的认证，并计划在今年6月季度开始出货QLC企业级固态硬盘。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">报告判断：“我们认为，闪迪将在未来几个季度内，从相对较低的基数出发，在这一市场中获得显著的份额提升。”</p><h2 id=\"id_1695656664\" style=\"text-align: left;\">目标价大幅上调，EPS预测全面上修</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">基于上述判断，<strong>报告将闪迪12个月目标价从700美元大幅上调至1200美元，上调幅度达71%。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf0385faa91620423a162b242868d951\" tg-width=\"728\" tg-height=\"684\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">目标价基于22倍市盈率（倍数不变），对应的归一化EPS估算从32美元上调至55美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">以报告发布时的股价1096.51美元计算，目标价对应的潜在上涨空间约为9.4%至9.8%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">EPS预测方面，报告将各年度预测平均上调约55%：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">CY2026年EPS预测从101.90美元上调至155.00美元，上调52.1%</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">CY2027年EPS预测从127.50美元上调至207.00美元，上调62.3%</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">CY2028年EPS预测从120.00美元上调至177.00美元，上调47.5%</p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: left;\">报告同时指出，对美光也预计会有正面反应，因为美光同样有NAND终端市场敞口。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5c9124bf621678cf057f227b528cf22","relate_stocks":{"LU0054578231.USD":"BGF SYSTEMATIC SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL SMALLCAP \"A2\" (USD) ACC","BK4170":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边","LU0963586101.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SMALL CAP EQUITY \"AT\" ACC","SNXX":"Tradr 2X Long SNDK Daily ETF","SNDK":"闪迪"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3771456","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2632618514","content_text":"尽管闪迪股价盘后一度下跌6%，分析师认为这是前期预期过高所致，并将12个月目标价从700美元大幅上调至1200美元，EPS预测平均上调约55%。短期的下跌，更多是情绪和仓位的释放，而非基本面的问题。“我们预计股价最终将走高。”财报和指引双双炸裂，股价却先跌为敬——这背后，藏着一个关于“预期已经太高”的市场逻辑。据追风交易台消息，4月30日，闪迪发布了2026财年第一季度财报。当晚，一份来自华尔街的研究报告随即出炉，对这份财报及公司前景作出详细解读。高盛认为短期的下跌，更多是情绪和仓位的释放，而非基本面的问题。该行表示，“我们预计股价最终将走高”，并将12个月目标价从700美元大幅上调至1200美元，EPS预测平均上调约55%。为什么“炸裂财报”换来下跌？财报数据本身没有任何悬念——全面超预期，而且超出幅度相当惊人。闪迪第一季度营收59.5亿美元，比分析师预期的51.01亿美元高出16.6%，比市场整体预期的47.81亿美元高出24.5%。毛利率达到78.4%，比分析师预期的69.8%高出近9个百分点。非GAAP每股收益23.41美元，比分析师预期的17.00美元高出37.7%，比市场整体预期的15.11美元高出近55%。然而，股价盘后一度下跌6%。在财报发布前，闪迪股价已经经历了一轮大幅拉升——NAND存储供需偏紧、数据中心SSD需求爆发、行业定价预期持续走强，这些利好早已被市场提前消化。投资者的预期，在财报发布前已经被推到了相当高的位置。用报告的原话来说：“我们认为，由于股价在财报前大幅上涨，投资者预期已经显著提升。”换句话说，财报再好，也需要超过“已经很高的预期”，才能推动股价进一步上行。短期的下跌，更多是情绪和仓位的释放，而非基本面的问题。报告明确表示：“尽管股价初期下跌6%，我们预计股价最终将走高。”二季度指引：再度大幅超预期如果说一季度财报是“超预期”，那二季度指引则是“再度超预期”。闪迪给出的二季度营收指引中值为80亿美元（区间77.5亿至82.5亿美元），比分析师预期的66.49亿美元高出20.3%，比市场整体预期的69.68亿美元高出14.8%。毛利率指引为80%，比分析师预期的74.5%高出约5.5个百分点。非GAAP每股收益指引区间为30至33美元，中值31.50美元，比分析师预期的24.21美元高出30.1%，比市场整体预期的25.96美元高出21.3%。环比来看，营收指引中值较一季度实际营收增长约34.5%，同比增幅高达372%。这组数字，几乎没有留下任何可以“失望”的空间。420亿美元供应协议：锁定未来，但还需观察财报中另一个值得关注的信息，是闪迪披露的“新商业模式”（NBMs，New Business Models）进展。简单来说，闪迪正在与客户签订长期供应协议——客户提前锁定供货，闪迪获得稳定、可预期的收入。这类似于“预售+长约”的模式，对双方都有好处：客户不用担心供货紧张，闪迪则能提前锁定收入和利润。目前，闪迪已签署五份此类协议，并正在与其他客户积极谈判。其中三份合同的总合同价值达到420亿美元，包含110亿美元的保障性收入和4亿美元的预付款。这三份协议覆盖了闪迪FY27计划产能的约35%，管理层表示未来有望进一步提升这一比例。报告对此的评价是：“我们认为这些协议是积极的第一步，但在获得更多关于协议细节和客户范围的信息之前，现在宣布行业结构性转变还为时过早。”NAND供需：持续偏紧，毛利率仍有上行空间闪迪管理层在财报电话会上明确表示，NAND行业在整个2026年及以后将持续处于供给偏紧状态。公司目前没有计划改变约20%的年度比特供给增速。与此同时，企业级市场需求正在加速——2026年企业级比特需求增速预计达到60%以上的高位。报告认为，在供给受限、需求加速的双重驱动下，闪迪的毛利率仍有进一步提升空间，尽管在公司已给出约80%毛利率指引的背景下，后续预期上调的幅度可能会趋于收窄。企业级SSD：从小基数起步，份额提升空间大闪迪的企业级SSD（eSSD）业务正在快速成长。目前，数据中心产品已占公司总营收的25%。在产品层面，闪迪已完成TLC企业级固态硬盘对多家超大规模云计算客户的认证，并计划在今年6月季度开始出货QLC企业级固态硬盘。报告判断：“我们认为，闪迪将在未来几个季度内，从相对较低的基数出发，在这一市场中获得显著的份额提升。”目标价大幅上调，EPS预测全面上修基于上述判断，报告将闪迪12个月目标价从700美元大幅上调至1200美元，上调幅度达71%。目标价基于22倍市盈率（倍数不变），对应的归一化EPS估算从32美元上调至55美元。以报告发布时的股价1096.51美元计算，目标价对应的潜在上涨空间约为9.4%至9.8%。EPS预测方面，报告将各年度预测平均上调约55%：CY2026年EPS预测从101.90美元上调至155.00美元，上调52.1%CY2027年EPS预测从127.50美元上调至207.00美元，上调62.3%CY2028年EPS预测从120.00美元上调至177.00美元，上调47.5%报告同时指出，对美光也预计会有正面反应，因为美光同样有NAND终端市场敞口。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SNXX":0.6,"SNDK":1.98}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":502,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":558521030759328,"gmtCreate":1777389372947,"gmtModify":1777389375578,"author":{"id":"4210522535662642","authorId":"4210522535662642","name":"maxitong","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4210522535662642","authorIdStr":"4210522535662642"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"不用修订了，直接投降和谈。","listText":"不用修订了，直接投降和谈。","text":"不用修订了，直接投降和谈。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/558521030759328","repostId":"1124107328","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1124107328","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1777388675,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1124107328?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-04-28 23:04","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"消息人士：伊朗预计将很快提交修订版和平提案","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124107328","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"4月28日，据知情人士向CNN透露，在美国总统特朗普表示不接受早前版本的提议后，调解进程中的巴基斯坦方面预计将在未来几天内收到伊朗旨在结束战争的一份修订版提议。知情人士称，伊朗外长阿拉格齐在对俄罗斯进行访问后将返回德黑兰，预计他将与该国领导人进行磋商。由于与最高领袖穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊（其下落保密）沟通存在困难，这一过程进展缓慢。特朗普此前已表示，他不会接受伊朗上周末提交的那个版本——该版本提议先结束战争，而将与伊朗核计划相关的棘手问题留到后续阶段解决。知情人士表示，这一进程仍在推进中，且充满变数，很大程度上取决于伊朗是否会提出一份美方更能接受的修订版提议。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>4月28日，据知情人士向CNN透露，在美国总统特朗普表示不接受早前版本的提议后，调解进程中的巴基斯坦方面预计将在未来几天内收到伊朗旨在结束战争的一份修订版提议。知情人士称，伊朗外长阿拉格齐在对俄罗斯进行访问后将返回德黑兰，预计他将与该国领导人进行磋商。由于与最高领袖穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊（其下落保密）沟通存在困难，这一过程进展缓慢。特朗普此前已表示，他不会接受伊朗上周末提交的那个版本——该版本提议先结束战争，而将与伊朗核计划相关的棘手问题留到后续阶段解决。知情人士表示，这一进程仍在推进中，且充满变数，很大程度上取决于伊朗是否会提出一份美方更能接受的修订版提议。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n消息人士：伊朗预计将很快提交修订版和平提案\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-04-28 23:04</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>4月28日，据知情人士向CNN透露，在美国总统特朗普表示不接受早前版本的提议后，调解进程中的巴基斯坦方面预计将在未来几天内收到伊朗旨在结束战争的一份修订版提议。知情人士称，伊朗外长阿拉格齐在对俄罗斯进行访问后将返回德黑兰，预计他将与该国领导人进行磋商。由于与最高领袖穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊（其下落保密）沟通存在困难，这一过程进展缓慢。特朗普此前已表示，他不会接受伊朗上周末提交的那个版本——该版本提议先结束战争，而将与伊朗核计划相关的棘手问题留到后续阶段解决。知情人士表示，这一进程仍在推进中，且充满变数，很大程度上取决于伊朗是否会提出一份美方更能接受的修订版提议。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/722d11bf4969293456955d43d37c93bd","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124107328","content_text":"4月28日，据知情人士向CNN透露，在美国总统特朗普表示不接受早前版本的提议后，调解进程中的巴基斯坦方面预计将在未来几天内收到伊朗旨在结束战争的一份修订版提议。知情人士称，伊朗外长阿拉格齐在对俄罗斯进行访问后将返回德黑兰，预计他将与该国领导人进行磋商。由于与最高领袖穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊（其下落保密）沟通存在困难，这一过程进展缓慢。特朗普此前已表示，他不会接受伊朗上周末提交的那个版本——该版本提议先结束战争，而将与伊朗核计划相关的棘手问题留到后续阶段解决。知情人士表示，这一进程仍在推进中，且充满变数，很大程度上取决于伊朗是否会提出一份美方更能接受的修订版提议。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":639,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":556054061957264,"gmtCreate":1776783888047,"gmtModify":1776783890079,"author":{"id":"4210522535662642","authorId":"4210522535662642","name":"maxitong","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4210522535662642","authorIdStr":"4210522535662642"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$&nbsp;</a> 美股不会跌的，今天还会低开高走的。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$&nbsp;</a> 美股不会跌的，今天还会低开高走的。","text":"$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ 美股不会跌的，今天还会低开高走的。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/556054061957264","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":721,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":555683225576632,"gmtCreate":1776698021527,"gmtModify":1776698023721,"author":{"id":"4210522535662642","authorId":"4210522535662642","name":"maxitong","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4210522535662642","authorIdStr":"4210522535662642"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"（极可能）","listText":"（极可能）","text":"（极可能）","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/555683225576632","repostId":"1102088446","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1102088446","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1776696957,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1102088446?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-04-20 22:55","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美国总统特朗普：“极不可能”延长与伊朗的停火协议","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1102088446","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"4月20日，美国总统特朗普20日在“真实社交”上发帖称，以色列从未说服他支持对伊朗开战，真正促使他下定决心的，是2023年10月7日巴以大规模冲突爆发所带来的后果——特朗普称，这一后果进一步坚定了他的所谓“毕生信念”，即“伊朗绝不能拥有核武器”。另据美国公共广播公司（PBS）今天报道，特朗普在接受电话采访时称，美伊临时停火将于美东时间4月21日晚（北京时间4月22日上午）失效，如果届时双方未达成协议，“那么大量炸弹将开始爆炸”。 (CCTV国际时讯)","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>4月20日，美国总统特朗普：“极不可能”延长与伊朗的停火协议。</p><p>在签署协议之前不会开放霍尔木兹海峡。停火协议将于华盛顿时间周三晚间到期。</p><p>此外，特朗普称愿意参加会谈，但认为没有必要。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美国总统特朗普：“极不可能”延长与伊朗的停火协议</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美国总统特朗普：“极不可能”延长与伊朗的停火协议\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-04-20 22:55</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>4月20日，美国总统特朗普：“极不可能”延长与伊朗的停火协议。</p><p>在签署协议之前不会开放霍尔木兹海峡。停火协议将于华盛顿时间周三晚间到期。</p><p>此外，特朗普称愿意参加会谈，但认为没有必要。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/62504fbd6af65b138077eabbe0cdef2b","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1102088446","content_text":"4月20日，美国总统特朗普：“极不可能”延长与伊朗的停火协议。在签署协议之前不会开放霍尔木兹海峡。停火协议将于华盛顿时间周三晚间到期。此外，特朗普称愿意参加会谈，但认为没有必要。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":757,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":555674720166944,"gmtCreate":1776695942377,"gmtModify":1776695946223,"author":{"id":"4210522535662642","authorId":"4210522535662642","name":"maxitong","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4210522535662642","authorIdStr":"4210522535662642"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Replying to <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3464650551454893\">@浪潮上的小舢板</a>:大佬，怎么分析出来的这个结论？//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3464650551454893\">@浪潮上的小舢板</a>:22日前后必跌","listText":"Replying to <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3464650551454893\">@浪潮上的小舢板</a>:大佬，怎么分析出来的这个结论？//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3464650551454893\">@浪潮上的小舢板</a>:22日前后必跌","text":"Replying to @浪潮上的小舢板:大佬，怎么分析出来的这个结论？//@浪潮上的小舢板:22日前后必跌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/555674720166944","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":935,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"9000000000000383","authorId":"9000000000000383","name":"StevenRussell","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cd57814a32b0b71cd3970e95d101105","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"9000000000000383","authorIdStr":"9000000000000383"},"content":"不一定吧，COIN最近势头还行","text":"不一定吧，COIN最近势头还行","html":"不一定吧，COIN最近势头还行"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":555661024797456,"gmtCreate":1776692594743,"gmtModify":1776692597056,"author":{"id":"4210522535662642","authorId":"4210522535662642","name":"maxitong","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4210522535662642","authorIdStr":"4210522535662642"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"直接降息一个点","listText":"直接降息一个点","text":"直接降息一个点","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/555661024797456","repostId":"2628584740","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2628584740","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1776689073,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2628584740?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-04-20 20:44","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"沃什明日出战听证会：从“鹰”转“鸽”能否说服国会？独立性与通胀预期成焦点","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2628584740","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"明晚听证会的核心在“降息承诺”与“捍卫美联储独立性”之间的冲突。其由鹰转鸽引发政治化质疑，叠加司法部调查与共和党阻击，确认前景不明。若其未能明确支持独立性，或推高长端利率并冲击全球央行公信力。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>特朗普提名的美联储主席人选凯文·沃什将于周二出席参议院银行委员会听证会，面临其政治生涯中最严峻的一次公开考验。在美联储独立性遭受空前压力、通胀形势再度趋紧的背景下，这场听证会的结果将直接影响全球最重要央行的未来走向。</p>\n<p><strong>听证会的核心矛盾在于：特朗普阵营期待沃什承诺降息，而两党参议员则要求他明确表态捍卫美联储独立性。</strong>乔治华盛顿大学政治学教授Sarah Binder将此次听证定性为&#34;异常高风险的确认听证会&#34;，称沃什必须在两者之间走钢丝。与此同时，共和党关键票仓、北卡罗来纳州参议员Thom Tillis已誓言在司法部对美联储的调查结束前拒绝批准任何提名，令沃什的确认前景蒙上阴影，其能否在鲍威尔5月15日任期届满前就位仍存重大变数。</p>\n<p>沃什的立场转变本身已成为听证会的核心议题。这位长期以来以鹰派著称的前美联储理事，在2025年特朗普重返白宫后明显转向，公开呼吁降息，被外界解读为向政治压力妥协的信号。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">德意志银行</a>首席美国经济学家Matthew Luzzetti警告，若沃什未能有力支持美联储独立性，或引发市场对未来通胀的担忧，进而推高长端利率——而这恰恰是美联储无法直接掌控的变量。</p>\n<h2>政策立场转变引发质疑</h2>\n<p>沃什的政策立场演变将是民主党议员重点追问的方向。作为长期倡导高利率以抑制通胀的鹰派人士，他在2025年7月于Fox Business公开表示美联储应当降息，时间节点恰好与特朗普重返执政、鲍威尔第二任期临近尾声高度吻合。</p>\n<p>参议院银行委员会首席民主党议员Elizabeth Warren今年2月致函沃什，追问特朗普是否在提名审查过程中要求其作出忠诚承诺，并公开指其将沦为总统的&#34;提线木偶&#34;。</p>\n<p>在提名前的数月间，沃什围绕降息构建了一套多维论据，核心逻辑包括：美国生产率大幅提升、人工智能与去监管化带来的潜在通缩效应，以及住房价格压力的缓解。他还主张通过缩减美联储资产负债表来为降息创造空间。</p>\n<p>然而，伊朗战争引发的能源价格飙升已令美联储官员暂停降息步伐——去年底三次降息后，美联储被普遍预期将在下周议息会议上按兵不动。Luzzetti指出，沃什或许可以论证一年后利率存在下行空间，但当前的通胀压力将削弱其短期降息论据的说服力。</p>\n<h2>独立性争议：司法部调查成最大变数</h2>\n<p>听证会的另一重压力来自特朗普政府对美联储的一系列法律行动。</p>\n<p>司法部正就美联储25亿美元总部翻新工程及鲍威尔就此提供的证词展开调查；与此同时，特朗普试图解雇美联储理事Lisa Cook的前所未有之举已引发法律诉讼，目前悬于最高法院。鲍威尔本人公开表示，司法部调查的动机在于总统对利率政策的不满。</p>\n<p>Tillis将上述调查定性为对美联储独立性的威胁，并坚持在调查结束前不支持任何美联储提名。特朗普则明确表示希望调查继续推进，双方僵局短期内难以化解。</p>\n<p>财政部长Scott Bessent上周曾短暂为沃什减压，4月15日在接受CNBC采访时表示，他理解美联储官员选择等待再降息的立场。但特朗普次日即予以否认，明确告诉记者：&#34;我不同意，我认为我们应该降低利率。&#34;</p>\n<h2>资产负债表与监管议题待厘清</h2>\n<p>沃什承诺缩减美联储目前规模达6.7万亿美元的资产负债表，但迄今几乎未提供任何操作细节，外界担忧激进缩表可能扰乱货币市场流动性。多位官员和学者已就此发出警告，建议其不宜操之过急。</p>\n<p>在监管层面，沃什将被追问其对美联储推进去监管化路线的立场，以及其呼吁加强美联储与财政部协调的主张——后者已令债券市场感到不安。</p>\n<p>民主党议员还对其财务披露的透明度提出质疑。听证前，沃什披露其本人及妻子Jane Lauder的资产合计至少1.92亿美元，但实际持仓规模预计远高于此。</p>\n<p>前堪萨斯城联储主席Esther George表示，她并不排斥沃什提出的改革理念，但强调&#34;这些想法需要更多清晰度&#34;，并呼吁确保&#34;对央行框架和治理结构的任何调整，都应以维护央行公信力为前提&#34;。</p>\n<h2>全球视野：央行公信力的外溢效应</h2>\n<p>美联储独立性之争的影响已超出美国国境。欧洲央行行长Christine Lagarde上周在华盛顿出席国际货币基金组织与世界银行春季会议期间明确表态：&#34;如果投资者或市场认为决策是在政治压力下作出的，无论方向如何，都会明显损害机构的公信力。&#34;</p>\n<p>分析人士指出，若特朗普干预美联储的模式被其他国家政府效仿，全球央行独立性将面临系统性风险。沃什在听证会上的表态，不仅将决定其自身的确认命运，也将向全球市场传递关于美联储未来走向的关键信号。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>沃什明日出战听证会：从“鹰”转“鸽”能否说服国会？独立性与通胀预期成焦点</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; 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style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-04-20 20:44</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>特朗普提名的美联储主席人选凯文·沃什将于周二出席参议院银行委员会听证会，面临其政治生涯中最严峻的一次公开考验。在美联储独立性遭受空前压力、通胀形势再度趋紧的背景下，这场听证会的结果将直接影响全球最重要央行的未来走向。</p>\n<p><strong>听证会的核心矛盾在于：特朗普阵营期待沃什承诺降息，而两党参议员则要求他明确表态捍卫美联储独立性。</strong>乔治华盛顿大学政治学教授Sarah Binder将此次听证定性为&#34;异常高风险的确认听证会&#34;，称沃什必须在两者之间走钢丝。与此同时，共和党关键票仓、北卡罗来纳州参议员Thom Tillis已誓言在司法部对美联储的调查结束前拒绝批准任何提名，令沃什的确认前景蒙上阴影，其能否在鲍威尔5月15日任期届满前就位仍存重大变数。</p>\n<p>沃什的立场转变本身已成为听证会的核心议题。这位长期以来以鹰派著称的前美联储理事，在2025年特朗普重返白宫后明显转向，公开呼吁降息，被外界解读为向政治压力妥协的信号。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">德意志银行</a>首席美国经济学家Matthew Luzzetti警告，若沃什未能有力支持美联储独立性，或引发市场对未来通胀的担忧，进而推高长端利率——而这恰恰是美联储无法直接掌控的变量。</p>\n<h2>政策立场转变引发质疑</h2>\n<p>沃什的政策立场演变将是民主党议员重点追问的方向。作为长期倡导高利率以抑制通胀的鹰派人士，他在2025年7月于Fox Business公开表示美联储应当降息，时间节点恰好与特朗普重返执政、鲍威尔第二任期临近尾声高度吻合。</p>\n<p>参议院银行委员会首席民主党议员Elizabeth Warren今年2月致函沃什，追问特朗普是否在提名审查过程中要求其作出忠诚承诺，并公开指其将沦为总统的&#34;提线木偶&#34;。</p>\n<p>在提名前的数月间，沃什围绕降息构建了一套多维论据，核心逻辑包括：美国生产率大幅提升、人工智能与去监管化带来的潜在通缩效应，以及住房价格压力的缓解。他还主张通过缩减美联储资产负债表来为降息创造空间。</p>\n<p>然而，伊朗战争引发的能源价格飙升已令美联储官员暂停降息步伐——去年底三次降息后，美联储被普遍预期将在下周议息会议上按兵不动。Luzzetti指出，沃什或许可以论证一年后利率存在下行空间，但当前的通胀压力将削弱其短期降息论据的说服力。</p>\n<h2>独立性争议：司法部调查成最大变数</h2>\n<p>听证会的另一重压力来自特朗普政府对美联储的一系列法律行动。</p>\n<p>司法部正就美联储25亿美元总部翻新工程及鲍威尔就此提供的证词展开调查；与此同时，特朗普试图解雇美联储理事Lisa Cook的前所未有之举已引发法律诉讼，目前悬于最高法院。鲍威尔本人公开表示，司法部调查的动机在于总统对利率政策的不满。</p>\n<p>Tillis将上述调查定性为对美联储独立性的威胁，并坚持在调查结束前不支持任何美联储提名。特朗普则明确表示希望调查继续推进，双方僵局短期内难以化解。</p>\n<p>财政部长Scott Bessent上周曾短暂为沃什减压，4月15日在接受CNBC采访时表示，他理解美联储官员选择等待再降息的立场。但特朗普次日即予以否认，明确告诉记者：&#34;我不同意，我认为我们应该降低利率。&#34;</p>\n<h2>资产负债表与监管议题待厘清</h2>\n<p>沃什承诺缩减美联储目前规模达6.7万亿美元的资产负债表，但迄今几乎未提供任何操作细节，外界担忧激进缩表可能扰乱货币市场流动性。多位官员和学者已就此发出警告，建议其不宜操之过急。</p>\n<p>在监管层面，沃什将被追问其对美联储推进去监管化路线的立场，以及其呼吁加强美联储与财政部协调的主张——后者已令债券市场感到不安。</p>\n<p>民主党议员还对其财务披露的透明度提出质疑。听证前，沃什披露其本人及妻子Jane Lauder的资产合计至少1.92亿美元，但实际持仓规模预计远高于此。</p>\n<p>前堪萨斯城联储主席Esther George表示，她并不排斥沃什提出的改革理念，但强调&#34;这些想法需要更多清晰度&#34;，并呼吁确保&#34;对央行框架和治理结构的任何调整，都应以维护央行公信力为前提&#34;。</p>\n<h2>全球视野：央行公信力的外溢效应</h2>\n<p>美联储独立性之争的影响已超出美国国境。欧洲央行行长Christine Lagarde上周在华盛顿出席国际货币基金组织与世界银行春季会议期间明确表态：&#34;如果投资者或市场认为决策是在政治压力下作出的，无论方向如何，都会明显损害机构的公信力。&#34;</p>\n<p>分析人士指出，若特朗普干预美联储的模式被其他国家政府效仿，全球央行独立性将面临系统性风险。沃什在听证会上的表态，不仅将决定其自身的确认命运，也将向全球市场传递关于美联储未来走向的关键信号。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b05e9d80ff420c615fde9b9bb34952c8","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","BK4588":"碎股","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","VXX":"短期VIX期货ETN","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","BK4581":"高盛持仓","VIX":"标普500波动率指数","VIXY":"波动率短期期货指数ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3770414","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2628584740","content_text":"特朗普提名的美联储主席人选凯文·沃什将于周二出席参议院银行委员会听证会，面临其政治生涯中最严峻的一次公开考验。在美联储独立性遭受空前压力、通胀形势再度趋紧的背景下，这场听证会的结果将直接影响全球最重要央行的未来走向。\n听证会的核心矛盾在于：特朗普阵营期待沃什承诺降息，而两党参议员则要求他明确表态捍卫美联储独立性。乔治华盛顿大学政治学教授Sarah Binder将此次听证定性为\"异常高风险的确认听证会\"，称沃什必须在两者之间走钢丝。与此同时，共和党关键票仓、北卡罗来纳州参议员Thom Tillis已誓言在司法部对美联储的调查结束前拒绝批准任何提名，令沃什的确认前景蒙上阴影，其能否在鲍威尔5月15日任期届满前就位仍存重大变数。\n沃什的立场转变本身已成为听证会的核心议题。这位长期以来以鹰派著称的前美联储理事，在2025年特朗普重返白宫后明显转向，公开呼吁降息，被外界解读为向政治压力妥协的信号。德意志银行首席美国经济学家Matthew Luzzetti警告，若沃什未能有力支持美联储独立性，或引发市场对未来通胀的担忧，进而推高长端利率——而这恰恰是美联储无法直接掌控的变量。\n政策立场转变引发质疑\n沃什的政策立场演变将是民主党议员重点追问的方向。作为长期倡导高利率以抑制通胀的鹰派人士，他在2025年7月于Fox Business公开表示美联储应当降息，时间节点恰好与特朗普重返执政、鲍威尔第二任期临近尾声高度吻合。\n参议院银行委员会首席民主党议员Elizabeth Warren今年2月致函沃什，追问特朗普是否在提名审查过程中要求其作出忠诚承诺，并公开指其将沦为总统的\"提线木偶\"。\n在提名前的数月间，沃什围绕降息构建了一套多维论据，核心逻辑包括：美国生产率大幅提升、人工智能与去监管化带来的潜在通缩效应，以及住房价格压力的缓解。他还主张通过缩减美联储资产负债表来为降息创造空间。\n然而，伊朗战争引发的能源价格飙升已令美联储官员暂停降息步伐——去年底三次降息后，美联储被普遍预期将在下周议息会议上按兵不动。Luzzetti指出，沃什或许可以论证一年后利率存在下行空间，但当前的通胀压力将削弱其短期降息论据的说服力。\n独立性争议：司法部调查成最大变数\n听证会的另一重压力来自特朗普政府对美联储的一系列法律行动。\n司法部正就美联储25亿美元总部翻新工程及鲍威尔就此提供的证词展开调查；与此同时，特朗普试图解雇美联储理事Lisa Cook的前所未有之举已引发法律诉讼，目前悬于最高法院。鲍威尔本人公开表示，司法部调查的动机在于总统对利率政策的不满。\nTillis将上述调查定性为对美联储独立性的威胁，并坚持在调查结束前不支持任何美联储提名。特朗普则明确表示希望调查继续推进，双方僵局短期内难以化解。\n财政部长Scott Bessent上周曾短暂为沃什减压，4月15日在接受CNBC采访时表示，他理解美联储官员选择等待再降息的立场。但特朗普次日即予以否认，明确告诉记者：\"我不同意，我认为我们应该降低利率。\"\n资产负债表与监管议题待厘清\n沃什承诺缩减美联储目前规模达6.7万亿美元的资产负债表，但迄今几乎未提供任何操作细节，外界担忧激进缩表可能扰乱货币市场流动性。多位官员和学者已就此发出警告，建议其不宜操之过急。\n在监管层面，沃什将被追问其对美联储推进去监管化路线的立场，以及其呼吁加强美联储与财政部协调的主张——后者已令债券市场感到不安。\n民主党议员还对其财务披露的透明度提出质疑。听证前，沃什披露其本人及妻子Jane Lauder的资产合计至少1.92亿美元，但实际持仓规模预计远高于此。\n前堪萨斯城联储主席Esther George表示，她并不排斥沃什提出的改革理念，但强调\"这些想法需要更多清晰度\"，并呼吁确保\"对央行框架和治理结构的任何调整，都应以维护央行公信力为前提\"。\n全球视野：央行公信力的外溢效应\n美联储独立性之争的影响已超出美国国境。欧洲央行行长Christine Lagarde上周在华盛顿出席国际货币基金组织与世界银行春季会议期间明确表态：\"如果投资者或市场认为决策是在政治压力下作出的，无论方向如何，都会明显损害机构的公信力。\"\n分析人士指出，若特朗普干预美联储的模式被其他国家政府效仿，全球央行独立性将面临系统性风险。沃什在听证会上的表态，不仅将决定其自身的确认命运，也将向全球市场传递关于美联储未来走向的关键信号。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":2,"NQmain":2,"TQQQ":2,".SPX":2,"YMmain":2,"SQQQ":2,"QQQ":2,"VIX":2,"VIXY":2,".DJI":2,"VIXmain":2,"ESmain":2,"VXX":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":663,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":555660169815480,"gmtCreate":1776692395181,"gmtModify":1776692397633,"author":{"id":"4210522535662642","authorId":"4210522535662642","name":"maxitong","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4210522535662642","authorIdStr":"4210522535662642"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"别谈了，直接打吧，要么直接投降。","listText":"别谈了，直接打吧，要么直接投降。","text":"别谈了，直接打吧，要么直接投降。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/555660169815480","repostId":"1131938398","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1131938398","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1776692096,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1131938398?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-04-20 21:34","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特朗普：若有突破进展，愿同伊朗高级别领导人会面","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131938398","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"4月20日电，据美国媒体报道，美国总统特朗普20日称，若谈判取得突破性进展，他愿同伊朗高级别领导人会面。 (新华社)美国媒体20日报道说，美国副总统万斯同美国代表团将“在数小时内”抵达巴基斯坦首都伊斯兰堡。 (新华社)","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>4月20日，据美国媒体报道，美国总统特朗普20日称，若谈判取得突破性进展，他愿同伊朗高级别领导人会面。 (新华社)</p><p>美国媒体20日报道说，美国副总统万斯同美国代表团将“在数小时内”抵达巴基斯坦首都伊斯兰堡。 (新华社)</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特朗普：若有突破进展，愿同伊朗高级别领导人会面</title>\n<style 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21:34</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>4月20日，据美国媒体报道，美国总统特朗普20日称，若谈判取得突破性进展，他愿同伊朗高级别领导人会面。 (新华社)</p><p>美国媒体20日报道说，美国副总统万斯同美国代表团将“在数小时内”抵达巴基斯坦首都伊斯兰堡。 (新华社)</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/816a0c3e72eee473313fa6139e832464","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131938398","content_text":"4月20日，据美国媒体报道，美国总统特朗普20日称，若谈判取得突破性进展，他愿同伊朗高级别领导人会面。 (新华社)美国媒体20日报道说，美国副总统万斯同美国代表团将“在数小时内”抵达巴基斯坦首都伊斯兰堡。 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连涨10天","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/553528789313592","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":805,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":552061961819944,"gmtCreate":1775815389944,"gmtModify":1775815392139,"author":{"id":"4210522535662642","authorId":"4210522535662642","name":"maxitong","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4210522535662642","authorIdStr":"4210522535662642"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$&nbsp;</a>要连涨8天","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$&nbsp;</a>要连涨8天","text":"$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ 要连涨8天","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/552061961819944","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":584,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":551506173534848,"gmtCreate":1775666891020,"gmtModify":1775666893346,"author":{"id":"4210522535662642","authorId":"4210522535662642","name":"maxitong","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4210522535662642","authorIdStr":"4210522535662642"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$&nbsp;</a> 还涨?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$&nbsp;</a> 还涨?","text":"$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ 还涨?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/551506173534848","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":385,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":551046849898608,"gmtCreate":1775554829980,"gmtModify":1775554833029,"author":{"id":"4210522535662642","authorId":"4210522535662642","name":"maxitong","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4210522535662642","authorIdStr":"4210522535662642"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"我建议推迟三年后","listText":"我建议推迟三年后","text":"我建议推迟三年后","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/551046849898608","repostId":"1101643401","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1101643401","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1775554238,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1101643401?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-04-07 17:30","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"国际油价快速下挫转跌，特朗普可能推迟对伊朗的“最后期限”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101643401","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"已多次延长或暂停其针对伊朗的最后通牒。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>4月7日周二，国际油价快速下挫，WTI及布伦特原油期货价格均已转跌。美国官员表示，<strong>如果特朗普认为与伊朗的协议有明显进展，可能会推迟原定于美国东部时间周二晚8点的“最后期限”。</strong>自“伊朗战争”爆发以来，特朗普已多次延长或暂停其针对伊朗的最后通牒。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe2b72245027f15441e1a1a27d119597\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1287\" tg-height=\"642\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/776625063ef6eeeb60924f27f1761817\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1287\" tg-height=\"639\"/></p><p></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" 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17:30</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>4月7日周二，国际油价快速下挫，WTI及布伦特原油期货价格均已转跌。美国官员表示，<strong>如果特朗普认为与伊朗的协议有明显进展，可能会推迟原定于美国东部时间周二晚8点的“最后期限”。</strong>自“伊朗战争”爆发以来，特朗普已多次延长或暂停其针对伊朗的最后通牒。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe2b72245027f15441e1a1a27d119597\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1287\" tg-height=\"642\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/776625063ef6eeeb60924f27f1761817\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1287\" tg-height=\"639\"/></p><p></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4e05ec77979a5299f730b563d0cf690","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101643401","content_text":"4月7日周二，国际油价快速下挫，WTI及布伦特原油期货价格均已转跌。美国官员表示，如果特朗普认为与伊朗的协议有明显进展，可能会推迟原定于美国东部时间周二晚8点的“最后期限”。自“伊朗战争”爆发以来，特朗普已多次延长或暂停其针对伊朗的最后通牒。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLmain":2,"BZmain":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":515,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":548908461949904,"gmtCreate":1775032690801,"gmtModify":1775032693343,"author":{"id":"4210522535662642","authorId":"4210522535662642","name":"maxitong","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4210522535662642","authorIdStr":"4210522535662642"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"放过散户吧。。。","listText":"放过散户吧。。。","text":"放过散户吧。。。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/548908461949904","repostId":"1187793988","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1187793988","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1775030673,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1187793988?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-04-01 16:04","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"伊朗：霍尔木兹海峡不会开放，最高领导人尚未下达任何谈判许可","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187793988","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"没有举行过任何谈判，将来也不会。","content":"<html><head></head><body>伊朗议会副议长表示：“霍尔木兹海峡不会开放，我们没有举行过任何谈判，将来也不会。战争、和平与谈判的决定权在最高领导人手中，目前尚未下达任何谈判许可。”</body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>伊朗：霍尔木兹海峡不会开放，最高领导人尚未下达任何谈判许可</title>\n<style 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16:04</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body>伊朗议会副议长表示：“霍尔木兹海峡不会开放，我们没有举行过任何谈判，将来也不会。战争、和平与谈判的决定权在最高领导人手中，目前尚未下达任何谈判许可。”</body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5506e2441ee7a0d7c1220f32bf31b038","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187793988","content_text":"伊朗议会副议长表示：“霍尔木兹海峡不会开放，我们没有举行过任何谈判，将来也不会。战争、和平与谈判的决定权在最高领导人手中，目前尚未下达任何谈判许可。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLmain":2,"BZmain":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":394,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":539113082406344,"gmtCreate":1772640298750,"gmtModify":1772640386953,"author":{"id":"4210522535662642","authorId":"4210522535662642","name":"maxitong","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4210522535662642","authorIdStr":"4210522535662642"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"随着科学技术的发展电子行业的更新换代频率更快更高，硬件和软件相比，软件更新速度更高，因此硬件和软件的护城河更高，个人认为长期投资的话，硬件逻辑比软件更硬，投资首选硬件。","listText":"随着科学技术的发展电子行业的更新换代频率更快更高，硬件和软件相比，软件更新速度更高，因此硬件和软件的护城河更高，个人认为长期投资的话，硬件逻辑比软件更硬，投资首选硬件。","text":"随着科学技术的发展电子行业的更新换代频率更快更高，硬件和软件相比，软件更新速度更高，因此硬件和软件的护城河更高，个人认为长期投资的话，硬件逻辑比软件更硬，投资首选硬件。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/539113082406344","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1254,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"9000000000000141","authorId":"9000000000000141","name":"KennethLong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/168415c8fa94e7b14ffb415e8098eac9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"9000000000000141","authorIdStr":"9000000000000141"},"content":"硬件护城河高，稳当选择！","text":"硬件护城河高，稳当选择！","html":"硬件护城河高，稳当选择！"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":463928729690128,"gmtCreate":1754257303659,"gmtModify":1754266417379,"author":{"id":"4210522535662642","authorId":"4210522535662642","name":"maxitong","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4210522535662642","authorIdStr":"4210522535662642"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$ </a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$ </a>&nbsp;","text":"$苹果(AAPL)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd2d628bcda472a4ac867c84b9759e4a","width":"1208","height":"1946"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/463928729690128","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2141,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":462723127783880,"gmtCreate":1753975110276,"gmtModify":1753976015934,"author":{"id":"4210522535662642","authorId":"4210522535662642","name":"maxitong","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4210522535662642","authorIdStr":"4210522535662642"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Replying to <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3436780714362320\">@酒吧里喝饮料的boy11</a>:对 一路狂跌你吃不消//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3436780714362320\">@酒吧里喝饮料的boy11</a>:它跌的你抗不住，你肯定要卖","listText":"Replying to <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3436780714362320\">@酒吧里喝饮料的boy11</a>:对 一路狂跌你吃不消//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3436780714362320\">@酒吧里喝饮料的boy11</a>:它跌的你抗不住，你肯定要卖","text":"Replying to @酒吧里喝饮料的boy11:对 一路狂跌你吃不消//@酒吧里喝饮料的boy11:它跌的你抗不住，你肯定要卖","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/462723127783880","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2643,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":566657594697432,"gmtCreate":1779378527683,"gmtModify":1779378529733,"author":{"id":"4210522535662642","authorId":"4210522535662642","name":"maxitong","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4210522535662642","idStr":"4210522535662642"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/566657594697432","repostId":"2637337801","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2637337801","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1779376822,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2637337801?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-05-21 23:20","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"“AI信仰”再掀狂澜！英伟达仍在定义AI牛市，华尔街憧憬市值破冲7万亿美元","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2637337801","media":"智通财经","summary":"智通财经APP获悉，有着“地球最重要股票”以及“AI芯片霸主”称号的全球最高市值公司英伟达，在美东时间周三美股盘后公布又一份无比强劲的季度业绩以及未来业绩展望。在华尔街，分析师们对于“全球AI总龙头”英伟达的看涨情绪愈发火热，仅仅华尔街平均目标价就意味着英伟达市值有望超7万亿美元。截至发稿，英伟达股价盘初一度上扬至227美元，市值徘徊在5.35万亿美元附近。Moore将英伟达目标价从285美元小幅上调至288美元。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">5月21日，有着“地球最重要股票”以及“AI芯片霸主”称号的全球最高市值公司<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>，在美东时间周三美股盘后公布又一份无比强劲的季度业绩以及未来业绩展望。<strong>英伟达最新业绩可谓非常清楚地凸显全球AI算力基础设施建设狂潮远未停歇，并且正在从AI GPU/AI ASIC扩展到数据中心CPU、高性能网络基础设施、整机级别服务器集群、AI超级工厂和企业级大规模AI云计算系统。在华尔街，分析师们对于“全球AI总龙头”英伟达的看涨情绪愈发火热，仅仅华尔街平均目标价就意味着英伟达市值有望超7万亿美元。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">截至发稿，英伟达股价盘初一度上扬至227美元，市值徘徊在5.35万亿美元附近。截至2026年4月26日的英伟达2027财年第一财季(“即一季度”)业绩显示，营收同比增长85%至816.2亿美元，较分析师普遍预期高将近3.1%。核心业务——数据中心业务营收约752亿美元，贡献公司九成以上营收，和总营收均继续刷新单季最高纪录，显示AI算力需求仍是英伟达增长的绝对主线。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达此次给出的第二财季(“即二季度”)营收指引中值约910亿美元，再创单季历史纪录，显著高于分析师预期均值，但是低于华尔街最乐观预期——即960亿至980亿美元。<strong>不过，英伟达管理层特别说明，此项业绩指引未计入来自中国的任何数据中心计算业务营收，这意味着当前指引主要依靠中国以外市场需求支撑，也为未来潜在增量留下空间。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>值得注意的是，美国商务部已正式批准向包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>、字节跳动在内的10家中国巨头们出口英伟达H200 AI芯片，每位买家最高购买额度可达7.5万颗。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这些业绩与展望都在说明北美超大规模云厂商、AI大模型公司、企业AI云和工业物理AI需求并没有明显减速，所谓“AI Capex见顶”的担忧至少在英伟达订单与指引层面尚未得到验证。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">更重要的是，<strong>这次英伟达给华尔街的不是单一AI GPU或者显卡增长故事，而是AI工厂经济学的狂飙式扩展版图</strong>。花旗提到，英伟达将数据中心销售拆分为Hyperscale和ACIE，有助于提高可见度;<strong>这家芯片巨头还预计今年Vera CPU销售额达到200亿美元，并提出到2030年2000亿美元CPU TAM。这意味着英伟达正在从“AI GPU龙头”升级为“GPU+CPU+网络基础设施+机架级系统+CUDA开发者软件生态”的AI基础设施平台公司，甚至暴力切入过去由<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>这两大x86芯片巨头长期主导的数据中心服务器CPU价值池</strong>。</p><h2 id=\"id_703067357\">AI浪潮没有刹车键!英伟达再度征服华尔街</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">对于一家体量如此庞大的公司而言，英伟达最新业绩和指引可谓令华尔街分析师们印象极其深刻，散户投资者们显然也注意到了这一点，分析师们普遍称赞这家由黄仁勋领导的科技巨头正在全线开足马力。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">华尔街对英伟达仍是强烈看涨。MarketBeat显示，<strong>54位分析师给出的12个月平均目标价为295.10美元，最高目标价为500美元;对应当前正在交易的截至发稿股价223.47美元，平均目标价意味着约32.1%潜在上行，最高目标价意味着约123.7%的惊人潜在上行空间。295.10美元平均目标价对应约7.17万亿美元市值;500美元最高目标价对应约12.14万亿美元市值。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这些关于潜在市值与涨幅空间数字的含义可谓非常夸张：<strong>华尔街最高目标价隐含英伟达可能成为一个超过12万亿美元级别的公司，大约相当于把当前市值再翻一倍多。此前华尔街分析师们平均予以的1万亿美元到5万亿美元的平均市值关口，英伟达均已越过，因此投资者们相信7万亿美元将是下一个重要市值关口。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e12b049d69ece78fe763bfd70627ce7e\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"200\" tg-height=\"120\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">花旗资深分析师Atif Malik在给客户们的一份报告中写道：“英伟达正在通过提供两个子类别来提高其数据中心销售额的可见度：Hyperscale和ACIE(AI云、工业与企业)，我们认为这有利于进行比较。英伟达CEO 黄仁勋预计今年Vera CPU销售额将达到200亿美元(我们认为主要包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta</a>和微软)，<strong>并预计到2030年将形成一个新的2000亿美元CPU总潜在市场。此前2025年至2027年超过1万亿美元的数据中心销售额并未包括Vera CPU和LPX贡献，这使我们将FY27/28/29每股收益预期分别上调8%/6%/8%。此外，英伟达管理层似乎一致认为，凭借更优的性能/token指标，它将在AI大模型公司OpenAI和Anthropic，甚至SpaceXAI中扩大份额。</strong>”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>花旗的Malik继续给予英伟达“买入”评级，目标价则设定为300美元</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>的资深分析师Joseph Moore将此次业绩类比为最顶级高尔夫球手，并称其结果是“直上球道”。Moore在给客户的一份报告中写道：“英伟达公布的数据高于我们的预期和预览，所有指标均实现干净利落的超预期和上调业绩展望指引，未来Vera Rubin的大幅爬坡应能证明他们的主张，即英伟达系的AI超级硬件体系在AI工厂经济学方面处于领先地位。”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Moore将英伟达目标价从285美元小幅上调至288美元。他表示，尽管这家市值一度高达5.5万亿美元的科技巨头的“球门柱总是在移动”，但该公司一直证明自己优于竞争对手。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Moore补充称：“当然，这并不意味着比较毫无意义，因为4000亿美元运行率的AI资本投资不可能在几个季度内完全由Vera Rubin满足，因此Blackwell架构AI GPU系列算力集群与其他公司下一代产品之间的比较，仍然是考虑因素中的重要部分。但我们相信英伟达长期以来所揭示的一个真理：在被证明并非如此之前，更低成本的硅片尚未被证明能够带来更低的每token成本，而拥有同类AI基础设施供应商的最佳能力，对于希望获得最长且最有效寿命加之最完整生态系统的客户来说，是一个相当大的优势。”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EVR\">Evercore</a> ISI分析师Mark Lipacis 指出，资本回报大幅增加(800亿美元回购、季度股息从每股0.01美元提高至每股0.25美元)表明其盈利倍数可能正在扩张。Lipacis解释称：<strong>“我们预计，随着公司提高资本回报计划——股息从每股0.01美元增加至0.25美元，并在现有390亿美元基础上宣布新的800亿美元回购计划，同时计划在2026日历年返还50%的自由现金流(在我们看来，2027日历年及以后比例会更高)——英伟达未来12个月市盈率将开始大幅扩张。”</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Lipacis将其目标价从352美元大幅上调至413美元。他还指出，英伟达的CPU业务似乎已经准备好腾飞。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Lipacis补充称：“英伟达强调，其预计将在2026日历年出货200亿美元独立出货的Vera CPU(该产品已于上周开始出货)——值得注意的是，这不包括机架级系统出货中作为headnode附带级别的CPU。更广泛来看，有着‘AI教父’称号英伟达CEO黄仁勋强调存在一个2000亿美元CPU总潜在市场，这与我们高于市场一致共识区间的2030年1900亿至2750亿美元市场规模测算更为强劲且乐观。我们期待黄仁勋在Computex的主题演讲成为催化剂，披露更多关于公司CPU战略的细节。”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Seeking Alpha分析师Julia Ostian 表示，运营指标“看起来令人印象深刻”，Blackwell爬坡并未像一些人担心的那样拖累盈利能力。Ostian通过电子邮件表示：“英伟达仍然是一家全球最为卓越的科技公司，第二季度910亿美元的史无前例营收预期(如果实现，将意味着环比超预期11%)就是证明。”</p><h2 id=\"id_1348843923\">万亿美元AI<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600122\">宏图</a>即将成为现实!地球最重要股票仍在定义AI超级牛市</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">华尔街对英伟达的主流目标价已经把它定价为7万亿美元级公司;<strong>最激进聚合目标价则把它推向12万亿美元级别;而具名高目标价的核心逻辑，都是英伟达从GPU龙头升级为“AI工厂全栈基础设施平台”——GPU、CPU、网络、机架级系统、软件生态和资本回报共同支撑估值扩张，预期AI加速计算基础设施支出到2030年可能达到3万亿—4万亿美元。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">AI智能体风靡全球之际，AI算力投资主线正在从“围绕AI GPU的单点算力竞赛”转向“AI智能体驱动的全栈算力系统”，下<strong>一轮超额阿尔法收益也将不再仅仅属于AI GPU/AI ASIC领域最强龙头名单，而会系统性扩散到数据中心CPU、DRAM/NAND/HBM存储、AI PCB、液冷系统、数据中心光互连系统、ABF载板/玻璃基板与广泛晶圆代工等全栈AI算力基础设施层。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在4月30日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>以及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>这三家云计算超级巨头同一夜交出亮眼成绩单，凸显出受益于AI大浪潮的云计算业务的超预期爆发速度让华尔街重新定价AI的商业回报。摩根士丹利分析师团队发布的最新研报显示，<strong>预计五大超大规模科技巨头们(亚马逊、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">谷歌</a>、Meta、微软、甲骨文)2026年合计资本开支约8000亿美元，2027年则有望突破1.1万亿美元，较此前预测的9500亿美元再度上调</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">摩根士丹利的分析师们强调，<strong>这些庞大资金投入背后的核心逻辑在于：先重投入、建产能，再靠基于AI算力资源的规模化商业营收和ROIC回收;云计算积压订单与AI应用Token的暴增，正是这套逻辑能跑通的最直接证据，这些巨头们云计算业务的超预期爆发速度让华尔街重新定价AI的商业回报。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达CEO黄仁勋今年早些时候在GTC大会上展现出英伟达在AI算力基础设施领域的“前所未有AI算力创收超级宏图”，他告知全球投资者们，在Blackwell架构GPU算力强劲需求以及即将量产的Vera Rubin架构AI算力体系更加炸裂式强劲需求推动之下，<strong>其在人工智能芯片领域的未来营收规模到2027年可能至少达到1万亿美元(即 2025-2027年AI 基础设施整体营收)，远远高于上一次GTC大会抛出的到2026年实现5000亿美元AI算力基础设施蓝图。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>英伟达已经不只是半导体龙头公司，而是全球AI资本开支周期以及引领全球AI牛市轨迹的价格锚、情绪锚和盈利锚：</strong>它的业绩决定了市场如何看待AI需求强度，它的供应链牵动<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>、SK海力士、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASML\">ASML</a>(阿斯麦)等上游半导体设备与晶圆厂基本面增长前景，以及数据中心CPU、HBM/NAND/HDD存储、2.5D/3D先进封装、液冷散热系统、光互连供应链、数据中心电力等一整个AI算力基础设施链条，它的涨跌幅则显著影响到纳斯达克、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>指数牛市轨迹和全球股票市场风险偏好。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此外，值得注意的是，虽然英伟达基本面继续超预期，但仓位已经极度拥挤，这也意味着英伟达涨势未必以过去那种垂直拉升方式延续，但中长期趋势并未被破坏。<strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>交易台称英伟达仓位拥挤度在1到10分中达到9，且虽然空头名义规模约625亿美元，但多头持有已经非常普遍;同时机构大量备兑看涨期权使交易商处于long gamma状态，压制短线波动。因此，短期股价钝化更像是“高预期、高仓位、高Gamma”下的交易结构问题，而不是AI需求转弱。</strong>只要AI模型公司和Hyperscalers继续投入AI工厂，Blackwell/Rubin/Vera CPU持续放量，且每token成本优势仍由英伟达系统级架构定义，英伟达的盈利天花板仍在上移。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>“AI信仰”再掀狂澜！英伟达仍在定义AI牛市，华尔街憧憬市值破冲7万亿美元</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“AI信仰”再掀狂澜！英伟达仍在定义AI牛市，华尔街憧憬市值破冲7万亿美元\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-05-21 23:20 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1444770.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>5月21日，有着“地球最重要股票”以及“AI芯片霸主”称号的全球最高市值公司英伟达，在美东时间周三美股盘后公布又一份无比强劲的季度业绩以及未来业绩展望。英伟达最新业绩可谓非常清楚地凸显全球AI算力基础设施建设狂潮远未停歇，并且正在从AI GPU/AI ASIC扩展到数据中心CPU、高性能网络基础设施、整机级别服务器集群、AI超级工厂和企业级大规模AI云计算系统。在华尔街，分析师们对于“全球AI总...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1444770.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55eb327f580527889cf30bafa92692ae","relate_stocks":{"LU1791710582.SGD":"Fidelity Global Demographics A-ACC-SGD (SGD/USD hedged)","LU1116320737.USD":"BGF SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL ENHANCED EQUITY YIELD \"A6\" (USD) INC","IE0034235303.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US RESEARCH ENHANCED CORE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B19Z8W00.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US LARGE CAP GROWTH \"A\" INC","LU1791710400.SGD":"Fidelity Global Demographics A-ACC-SGD","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","LU0390134368.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL GROWTH \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2054465674.USD":"UBS (LUX) KEY SELEC SICAV DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION T \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","LU0215105999.USD":"SCHRODER ISF GLOBAL EQUITY \"A\" ACC","LU2403377893.USD":"ALLIANZ SELECT INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (USD) INC","LU0689472784.USD":"安联收益及增长基金Cl AM AT 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INC"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1444770.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2637337801","content_text":"5月21日，有着“地球最重要股票”以及“AI芯片霸主”称号的全球最高市值公司英伟达，在美东时间周三美股盘后公布又一份无比强劲的季度业绩以及未来业绩展望。英伟达最新业绩可谓非常清楚地凸显全球AI算力基础设施建设狂潮远未停歇，并且正在从AI GPU/AI ASIC扩展到数据中心CPU、高性能网络基础设施、整机级别服务器集群、AI超级工厂和企业级大规模AI云计算系统。在华尔街，分析师们对于“全球AI总龙头”英伟达的看涨情绪愈发火热，仅仅华尔街平均目标价就意味着英伟达市值有望超7万亿美元。截至发稿，英伟达股价盘初一度上扬至227美元，市值徘徊在5.35万亿美元附近。截至2026年4月26日的英伟达2027财年第一财季(“即一季度”)业绩显示，营收同比增长85%至816.2亿美元，较分析师普遍预期高将近3.1%。核心业务——数据中心业务营收约752亿美元，贡献公司九成以上营收，和总营收均继续刷新单季最高纪录，显示AI算力需求仍是英伟达增长的绝对主线。英伟达此次给出的第二财季(“即二季度”)营收指引中值约910亿美元，再创单季历史纪录，显著高于分析师预期均值，但是低于华尔街最乐观预期——即960亿至980亿美元。不过，英伟达管理层特别说明，此项业绩指引未计入来自中国的任何数据中心计算业务营收，这意味着当前指引主要依靠中国以外市场需求支撑，也为未来潜在增量留下空间。值得注意的是，美国商务部已正式批准向包括阿里巴巴、腾讯、字节跳动在内的10家中国巨头们出口英伟达H200 AI芯片，每位买家最高购买额度可达7.5万颗。这些业绩与展望都在说明北美超大规模云厂商、AI大模型公司、企业AI云和工业物理AI需求并没有明显减速，所谓“AI Capex见顶”的担忧至少在英伟达订单与指引层面尚未得到验证。更重要的是，这次英伟达给华尔街的不是单一AI GPU或者显卡增长故事，而是AI工厂经济学的狂飙式扩展版图。花旗提到，英伟达将数据中心销售拆分为Hyperscale和ACIE，有助于提高可见度;这家芯片巨头还预计今年Vera CPU销售额达到200亿美元，并提出到2030年2000亿美元CPU TAM。这意味着英伟达正在从“AI GPU龙头”升级为“GPU+CPU+网络基础设施+机架级系统+CUDA开发者软件生态”的AI基础设施平台公司，甚至暴力切入过去由英特尔与AMD这两大x86芯片巨头长期主导的数据中心服务器CPU价值池。AI浪潮没有刹车键!英伟达再度征服华尔街对于一家体量如此庞大的公司而言，英伟达最新业绩和指引可谓令华尔街分析师们印象极其深刻，散户投资者们显然也注意到了这一点，分析师们普遍称赞这家由黄仁勋领导的科技巨头正在全线开足马力。华尔街对英伟达仍是强烈看涨。MarketBeat显示，54位分析师给出的12个月平均目标价为295.10美元，最高目标价为500美元;对应当前正在交易的截至发稿股价223.47美元，平均目标价意味着约32.1%潜在上行，最高目标价意味着约123.7%的惊人潜在上行空间。295.10美元平均目标价对应约7.17万亿美元市值;500美元最高目标价对应约12.14万亿美元市值。这些关于潜在市值与涨幅空间数字的含义可谓非常夸张：华尔街最高目标价隐含英伟达可能成为一个超过12万亿美元级别的公司，大约相当于把当前市值再翻一倍多。此前华尔街分析师们平均予以的1万亿美元到5万亿美元的平均市值关口，英伟达均已越过，因此投资者们相信7万亿美元将是下一个重要市值关口。花旗资深分析师Atif Malik在给客户们的一份报告中写道：“英伟达正在通过提供两个子类别来提高其数据中心销售额的可见度：Hyperscale和ACIE(AI云、工业与企业)，我们认为这有利于进行比较。英伟达CEO 黄仁勋预计今年Vera CPU销售额将达到200亿美元(我们认为主要包括Meta和微软)，并预计到2030年将形成一个新的2000亿美元CPU总潜在市场。此前2025年至2027年超过1万亿美元的数据中心销售额并未包括Vera CPU和LPX贡献，这使我们将FY27/28/29每股收益预期分别上调8%/6%/8%。此外，英伟达管理层似乎一致认为，凭借更优的性能/token指标，它将在AI大模型公司OpenAI和Anthropic，甚至SpaceXAI中扩大份额。”花旗的Malik继续给予英伟达“买入”评级，目标价则设定为300美元。摩根士丹利的资深分析师Joseph Moore将此次业绩类比为最顶级高尔夫球手，并称其结果是“直上球道”。Moore在给客户的一份报告中写道：“英伟达公布的数据高于我们的预期和预览，所有指标均实现干净利落的超预期和上调业绩展望指引，未来Vera Rubin的大幅爬坡应能证明他们的主张，即英伟达系的AI超级硬件体系在AI工厂经济学方面处于领先地位。”Moore将英伟达目标价从285美元小幅上调至288美元。他表示，尽管这家市值一度高达5.5万亿美元的科技巨头的“球门柱总是在移动”，但该公司一直证明自己优于竞争对手。Moore补充称：“当然，这并不意味着比较毫无意义，因为4000亿美元运行率的AI资本投资不可能在几个季度内完全由Vera Rubin满足，因此Blackwell架构AI GPU系列算力集群与其他公司下一代产品之间的比较，仍然是考虑因素中的重要部分。但我们相信英伟达长期以来所揭示的一个真理：在被证明并非如此之前，更低成本的硅片尚未被证明能够带来更低的每token成本，而拥有同类AI基础设施供应商的最佳能力，对于希望获得最长且最有效寿命加之最完整生态系统的客户来说，是一个相当大的优势。”Evercore ISI分析师Mark Lipacis 指出，资本回报大幅增加(800亿美元回购、季度股息从每股0.01美元提高至每股0.25美元)表明其盈利倍数可能正在扩张。Lipacis解释称：“我们预计，随着公司提高资本回报计划——股息从每股0.01美元增加至0.25美元，并在现有390亿美元基础上宣布新的800亿美元回购计划，同时计划在2026日历年返还50%的自由现金流(在我们看来，2027日历年及以后比例会更高)——英伟达未来12个月市盈率将开始大幅扩张。”Lipacis将其目标价从352美元大幅上调至413美元。他还指出，英伟达的CPU业务似乎已经准备好腾飞。Lipacis补充称：“英伟达强调，其预计将在2026日历年出货200亿美元独立出货的Vera CPU(该产品已于上周开始出货)——值得注意的是，这不包括机架级系统出货中作为headnode附带级别的CPU。更广泛来看，有着‘AI教父’称号英伟达CEO黄仁勋强调存在一个2000亿美元CPU总潜在市场，这与我们高于市场一致共识区间的2030年1900亿至2750亿美元市场规模测算更为强劲且乐观。我们期待黄仁勋在Computex的主题演讲成为催化剂，披露更多关于公司CPU战略的细节。”Seeking Alpha分析师Julia Ostian 表示，运营指标“看起来令人印象深刻”，Blackwell爬坡并未像一些人担心的那样拖累盈利能力。Ostian通过电子邮件表示：“英伟达仍然是一家全球最为卓越的科技公司，第二季度910亿美元的史无前例营收预期(如果实现，将意味着环比超预期11%)就是证明。”万亿美元AI宏图即将成为现实!地球最重要股票仍在定义AI超级牛市华尔街对英伟达的主流目标价已经把它定价为7万亿美元级公司;最激进聚合目标价则把它推向12万亿美元级别;而具名高目标价的核心逻辑，都是英伟达从GPU龙头升级为“AI工厂全栈基础设施平台”——GPU、CPU、网络、机架级系统、软件生态和资本回报共同支撑估值扩张，预期AI加速计算基础设施支出到2030年可能达到3万亿—4万亿美元。AI智能体风靡全球之际，AI算力投资主线正在从“围绕AI GPU的单点算力竞赛”转向“AI智能体驱动的全栈算力系统”，下一轮超额阿尔法收益也将不再仅仅属于AI GPU/AI ASIC领域最强龙头名单，而会系统性扩散到数据中心CPU、DRAM/NAND/HBM存储、AI PCB、液冷系统、数据中心光互连系统、ABF载板/玻璃基板与广泛晶圆代工等全栈AI算力基础设施层。在4月30日，微软、谷歌以及亚马逊这三家云计算超级巨头同一夜交出亮眼成绩单，凸显出受益于AI大浪潮的云计算业务的超预期爆发速度让华尔街重新定价AI的商业回报。摩根士丹利分析师团队发布的最新研报显示，预计五大超大规模科技巨头们(亚马逊、谷歌、Meta、微软、甲骨文)2026年合计资本开支约8000亿美元，2027年则有望突破1.1万亿美元，较此前预测的9500亿美元再度上调。摩根士丹利的分析师们强调，这些庞大资金投入背后的核心逻辑在于：先重投入、建产能，再靠基于AI算力资源的规模化商业营收和ROIC回收;云计算积压订单与AI应用Token的暴增，正是这套逻辑能跑通的最直接证据，这些巨头们云计算业务的超预期爆发速度让华尔街重新定价AI的商业回报。英伟达CEO黄仁勋今年早些时候在GTC大会上展现出英伟达在AI算力基础设施领域的“前所未有AI算力创收超级宏图”，他告知全球投资者们，在Blackwell架构GPU算力强劲需求以及即将量产的Vera Rubin架构AI算力体系更加炸裂式强劲需求推动之下，其在人工智能芯片领域的未来营收规模到2027年可能至少达到1万亿美元(即 2025-2027年AI 基础设施整体营收)，远远高于上一次GTC大会抛出的到2026年实现5000亿美元AI算力基础设施蓝图。英伟达已经不只是半导体龙头公司，而是全球AI资本开支周期以及引领全球AI牛市轨迹的价格锚、情绪锚和盈利锚：它的业绩决定了市场如何看待AI需求强度，它的供应链牵动台积电、SK海力士、美光、ASML(阿斯麦)等上游半导体设备与晶圆厂基本面增长前景，以及数据中心CPU、HBM/NAND/HDD存储、2.5D/3D先进封装、液冷散热系统、光互连供应链、数据中心电力等一整个AI算力基础设施链条，它的涨跌幅则显著影响到纳斯达克、标普500指数牛市轨迹和全球股票市场风险偏好。此外，值得注意的是，虽然英伟达基本面继续超预期，但仓位已经极度拥挤，这也意味着英伟达涨势未必以过去那种垂直拉升方式延续，但中长期趋势并未被破坏。高盛交易台称英伟达仓位拥挤度在1到10分中达到9，且虽然空头名义规模约625亿美元，但多头持有已经非常普遍;同时机构大量备兑看涨期权使交易商处于long gamma状态，压制短线波动。因此，短期股价钝化更像是“高预期、高仓位、高Gamma”下的交易结构问题，而不是AI需求转弱。只要AI模型公司和Hyperscalers继续投入AI工厂，Blackwell/Rubin/Vera CPU持续放量，且每token成本优势仍由英伟达系统级架构定义，英伟达的盈利天花板仍在上移。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDG":0.6,"NVDQ":0.6,"NVDL":0.6,"NVD2.UK":0.6,"NVIW.SI":0.6,"NVYY":0.6,"META":0.6,"ANV":0.6,"NVDX":0.6,"3NVD.UK":0.6,"NVDS":0.6,"NVDS.UK":0.6,"NVDD":0.6,"2NVD.UK":0.6,"MSFT":0.6,"NVDO":0.6,"NVD":0.6,"DIPS":0.6,"07788":0.6,"07388":0.6,"AAPL":0.6,"NVD3.UK":0.6,"GOOG":0.6,"NVDW":0.6,"NVDA":1.99,"AMZN":0.6,"NVII":0.6,"NVDB":0.6,"NVDY":0.6,"SNVD.UK":0.6,"TSLA":0.6,"NVDU":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":83,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":539113082406344,"gmtCreate":1772640298750,"gmtModify":1772640386953,"author":{"id":"4210522535662642","authorId":"4210522535662642","name":"maxitong","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4210522535662642","idStr":"4210522535662642"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"随着科学技术的发展电子行业的更新换代频率更快更高，硬件和软件相比，软件更新速度更高，因此硬件和软件的护城河更高，个人认为长期投资的话，硬件逻辑比软件更硬，投资首选硬件。","listText":"随着科学技术的发展电子行业的更新换代频率更快更高，硬件和软件相比，软件更新速度更高，因此硬件和软件的护城河更高，个人认为长期投资的话，硬件逻辑比软件更硬，投资首选硬件。","text":"随着科学技术的发展电子行业的更新换代频率更快更高，硬件和软件相比，软件更新速度更高，因此硬件和软件的护城河更高，个人认为长期投资的话，硬件逻辑比软件更硬，投资首选硬件。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/539113082406344","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1254,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"9000000000000141","authorId":"9000000000000141","name":"KennethLong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/168415c8fa94e7b14ffb415e8098eac9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"9000000000000141","idStr":"9000000000000141"},"content":"硬件护城河高，稳当选择！","text":"硬件护城河高，稳当选择！","html":"硬件护城河高，稳当选择！"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":555674720166944,"gmtCreate":1776695942377,"gmtModify":1776695946223,"author":{"id":"4210522535662642","authorId":"4210522535662642","name":"maxitong","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4210522535662642","idStr":"4210522535662642"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Replying to <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3464650551454893\">@浪潮上的小舢板</a>:大佬，怎么分析出来的这个结论？//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3464650551454893\">@浪潮上的小舢板</a>:22日前后必跌","listText":"Replying to <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3464650551454893\">@浪潮上的小舢板</a>:大佬，怎么分析出来的这个结论？//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3464650551454893\">@浪潮上的小舢板</a>:22日前后必跌","text":"Replying to @浪潮上的小舢板:大佬，怎么分析出来的这个结论？//@浪潮上的小舢板:22日前后必跌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/555674720166944","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":935,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"9000000000000383","authorId":"9000000000000383","name":"StevenRussell","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cd57814a32b0b71cd3970e95d101105","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"9000000000000383","idStr":"9000000000000383"},"content":"不一定吧，COIN最近势头还行","text":"不一定吧，COIN最近势头还行","html":"不一定吧，COIN最近势头还行"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":555660169815480,"gmtCreate":1776692395181,"gmtModify":1776692397633,"author":{"id":"4210522535662642","authorId":"4210522535662642","name":"maxitong","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4210522535662642","idStr":"4210522535662642"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"别谈了，直接打吧，要么直接投降。","listText":"别谈了，直接打吧，要么直接投降。","text":"别谈了，直接打吧，要么直接投降。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/555660169815480","repostId":"1131938398","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1131938398","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1776692096,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1131938398?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-04-20 21:34","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特朗普：若有突破进展，愿同伊朗高级别领导人会面","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131938398","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"4月20日电，据美国媒体报道，美国总统特朗普20日称，若谈判取得突破性进展，他愿同伊朗高级别领导人会面。 (新华社)美国媒体20日报道说，美国副总统万斯同美国代表团将“在数小时内”抵达巴基斯坦首都伊斯兰堡。 (新华社)","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>4月20日，据美国媒体报道，美国总统特朗普20日称，若谈判取得突破性进展，他愿同伊朗高级别领导人会面。 (新华社)</p><p>美国媒体20日报道说，美国副总统万斯同美国代表团将“在数小时内”抵达巴基斯坦首都伊斯兰堡。 (新华社)</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特朗普：若有突破进展，愿同伊朗高级别领导人会面</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特朗普：若有突破进展，愿同伊朗高级别领导人会面\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-04-20 21:34</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>4月20日，据美国媒体报道，美国总统特朗普20日称，若谈判取得突破性进展，他愿同伊朗高级别领导人会面。 (新华社)</p><p>美国媒体20日报道说，美国副总统万斯同美国代表团将“在数小时内”抵达巴基斯坦首都伊斯兰堡。 (新华社)</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/816a0c3e72eee473313fa6139e832464","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131938398","content_text":"4月20日，据美国媒体报道，美国总统特朗普20日称，若谈判取得突破性进展，他愿同伊朗高级别领导人会面。 (新华社)美国媒体20日报道说，美国副总统万斯同美国代表团将“在数小时内”抵达巴基斯坦首都伊斯兰堡。 (新华社)","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":436,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":558521030759328,"gmtCreate":1777389372947,"gmtModify":1777389375578,"author":{"id":"4210522535662642","authorId":"4210522535662642","name":"maxitong","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4210522535662642","idStr":"4210522535662642"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"不用修订了，直接投降和谈。","listText":"不用修订了，直接投降和谈。","text":"不用修订了，直接投降和谈。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/558521030759328","repostId":"1124107328","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1124107328","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1777388675,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1124107328?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-04-28 23:04","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"消息人士：伊朗预计将很快提交修订版和平提案","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124107328","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"4月28日，据知情人士向CNN透露，在美国总统特朗普表示不接受早前版本的提议后，调解进程中的巴基斯坦方面预计将在未来几天内收到伊朗旨在结束战争的一份修订版提议。知情人士称，伊朗外长阿拉格齐在对俄罗斯进行访问后将返回德黑兰，预计他将与该国领导人进行磋商。由于与最高领袖穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊（其下落保密）沟通存在困难，这一过程进展缓慢。特朗普此前已表示，他不会接受伊朗上周末提交的那个版本——该版本提议先结束战争，而将与伊朗核计划相关的棘手问题留到后续阶段解决。知情人士表示，这一进程仍在推进中，且充满变数，很大程度上取决于伊朗是否会提出一份美方更能接受的修订版提议。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>4月28日，据知情人士向CNN透露，在美国总统特朗普表示不接受早前版本的提议后，调解进程中的巴基斯坦方面预计将在未来几天内收到伊朗旨在结束战争的一份修订版提议。知情人士称，伊朗外长阿拉格齐在对俄罗斯进行访问后将返回德黑兰，预计他将与该国领导人进行磋商。由于与最高领袖穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊（其下落保密）沟通存在困难，这一过程进展缓慢。特朗普此前已表示，他不会接受伊朗上周末提交的那个版本——该版本提议先结束战争，而将与伊朗核计划相关的棘手问题留到后续阶段解决。知情人士表示，这一进程仍在推进中，且充满变数，很大程度上取决于伊朗是否会提出一份美方更能接受的修订版提议。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>消息人士：伊朗预计将很快提交修订版和平提案</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n消息人士：伊朗预计将很快提交修订版和平提案\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-04-28 23:04</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>4月28日，据知情人士向CNN透露，在美国总统特朗普表示不接受早前版本的提议后，调解进程中的巴基斯坦方面预计将在未来几天内收到伊朗旨在结束战争的一份修订版提议。知情人士称，伊朗外长阿拉格齐在对俄罗斯进行访问后将返回德黑兰，预计他将与该国领导人进行磋商。由于与最高领袖穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊（其下落保密）沟通存在困难，这一过程进展缓慢。特朗普此前已表示，他不会接受伊朗上周末提交的那个版本——该版本提议先结束战争，而将与伊朗核计划相关的棘手问题留到后续阶段解决。知情人士表示，这一进程仍在推进中，且充满变数，很大程度上取决于伊朗是否会提出一份美方更能接受的修订版提议。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/722d11bf4969293456955d43d37c93bd","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124107328","content_text":"4月28日，据知情人士向CNN透露，在美国总统特朗普表示不接受早前版本的提议后，调解进程中的巴基斯坦方面预计将在未来几天内收到伊朗旨在结束战争的一份修订版提议。知情人士称，伊朗外长阿拉格齐在对俄罗斯进行访问后将返回德黑兰，预计他将与该国领导人进行磋商。由于与最高领袖穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊（其下落保密）沟通存在困难，这一过程进展缓慢。特朗普此前已表示，他不会接受伊朗上周末提交的那个版本——该版本提议先结束战争，而将与伊朗核计划相关的棘手问题留到后续阶段解决。知情人士表示，这一进程仍在推进中，且充满变数，很大程度上取决于伊朗是否会提出一份美方更能接受的修订版提议。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":639,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":556054061957264,"gmtCreate":1776783888047,"gmtModify":1776783890079,"author":{"id":"4210522535662642","authorId":"4210522535662642","name":"maxitong","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4210522535662642","idStr":"4210522535662642"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$&nbsp;</a> 美股不会跌的，今天还会低开高走的。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$&nbsp;</a> 美股不会跌的，今天还会低开高走的。","text":"$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ 美股不会跌的，今天还会低开高走的。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/556054061957264","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":721,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":553528789313592,"gmtCreate":1776173503949,"gmtModify":1776173505937,"author":{"id":"4210522535662642","authorId":"4210522535662642","name":"maxitong","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4210522535662642","idStr":"4210522535662642"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$&nbsp;</a> 连涨10天","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$&nbsp;</a> 连涨10天","text":"$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ 连涨10天","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/553528789313592","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":805,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":551046849898608,"gmtCreate":1775554829980,"gmtModify":1775554833029,"author":{"id":"4210522535662642","authorId":"4210522535662642","name":"maxitong","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4210522535662642","idStr":"4210522535662642"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"我建议推迟三年后","listText":"我建议推迟三年后","text":"我建议推迟三年后","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/551046849898608","repostId":"1101643401","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1101643401","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1775554238,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1101643401?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-04-07 17:30","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"国际油价快速下挫转跌，特朗普可能推迟对伊朗的“最后期限”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101643401","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"已多次延长或暂停其针对伊朗的最后通牒。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>4月7日周二，国际油价快速下挫，WTI及布伦特原油期货价格均已转跌。美国官员表示，<strong>如果特朗普认为与伊朗的协议有明显进展，可能会推迟原定于美国东部时间周二晚8点的“最后期限”。</strong>自“伊朗战争”爆发以来，特朗普已多次延长或暂停其针对伊朗的最后通牒。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe2b72245027f15441e1a1a27d119597\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1287\" tg-height=\"642\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/776625063ef6eeeb60924f27f1761817\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1287\" tg-height=\"639\"/></p><p></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>国际油价快速下挫转跌，特朗普可能推迟对伊朗的“最后期限”</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ 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left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n国际油价快速下挫转跌，特朗普可能推迟对伊朗的“最后期限”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-04-07 17:30</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>4月7日周二，国际油价快速下挫，WTI及布伦特原油期货价格均已转跌。美国官员表示，<strong>如果特朗普认为与伊朗的协议有明显进展，可能会推迟原定于美国东部时间周二晚8点的“最后期限”。</strong>自“伊朗战争”爆发以来，特朗普已多次延长或暂停其针对伊朗的最后通牒。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe2b72245027f15441e1a1a27d119597\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1287\" tg-height=\"642\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/776625063ef6eeeb60924f27f1761817\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1287\" tg-height=\"639\"/></p><p></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4e05ec77979a5299f730b563d0cf690","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101643401","content_text":"4月7日周二，国际油价快速下挫，WTI及布伦特原油期货价格均已转跌。美国官员表示，如果特朗普认为与伊朗的协议有明显进展，可能会推迟原定于美国东部时间周二晚8点的“最后期限”。自“伊朗战争”爆发以来，特朗普已多次延长或暂停其针对伊朗的最后通牒。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLmain":2,"BZmain":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":515,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":548908461949904,"gmtCreate":1775032690801,"gmtModify":1775032693343,"author":{"id":"4210522535662642","authorId":"4210522535662642","name":"maxitong","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4210522535662642","idStr":"4210522535662642"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"放过散户吧。。。","listText":"放过散户吧。。。","text":"放过散户吧。。。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/548908461949904","repostId":"1187793988","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1187793988","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1775030673,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1187793988?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-04-01 16:04","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"伊朗：霍尔木兹海峡不会开放，最高领导人尚未下达任何谈判许可","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187793988","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"没有举行过任何谈判，将来也不会。","content":"<html><head></head><body>伊朗议会副议长表示：“霍尔木兹海峡不会开放，我们没有举行过任何谈判，将来也不会。战争、和平与谈判的决定权在最高领导人手中，目前尚未下达任何谈判许可。”</body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>伊朗：霍尔木兹海峡不会开放，最高领导人尚未下达任何谈判许可</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n伊朗：霍尔木兹海峡不会开放，最高领导人尚未下达任何谈判许可\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-04-01 16:04</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body>伊朗议会副议长表示：“霍尔木兹海峡不会开放，我们没有举行过任何谈判，将来也不会。战争、和平与谈判的决定权在最高领导人手中，目前尚未下达任何谈判许可。”</body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5506e2441ee7a0d7c1220f32bf31b038","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187793988","content_text":"伊朗议会副议长表示：“霍尔木兹海峡不会开放，我们没有举行过任何谈判，将来也不会。战争、和平与谈判的决定权在最高领导人手中，目前尚未下达任何谈判许可。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLmain":2,"BZmain":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":394,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":559506194937120,"gmtCreate":1777629898616,"gmtModify":1777629901583,"author":{"id":"4210522535662642","authorId":"4210522535662642","name":"maxitong","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4210522535662642","idStr":"4210522535662642"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"太少了，应该2000美元价格。","listText":"太少了，应该2000美元价格。","text":"太少了，应该2000美元价格。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/559506194937120","repostId":"2632618514","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2632618514","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1777623900,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2632618514?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-05-01 16:25","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"闪迪财报炸裂却大跌！高盛：大幅上调目标价，股价终将走高","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2632618514","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"尽管闪迪股价盘后一度下跌6%，分析师认为这是前期预期过高所致，并将12个月目标价从700美元大幅上调至1200美元，EPS预测平均上调约55%。短期的下跌，更多是情绪和仓位的释放，而非基本面的问题。“我们预计股价最终将走高。”","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>尽管闪迪股价盘后一度下跌6%，分析师认为这是前期预期过高所致，并将12个月目标价从700美元大幅上调至1200美元，EPS预测平均上调约55%。短期的下跌，更多是情绪和仓位的释放，而非基本面的问题。“我们预计股价最终将走高。”</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">财报和指引双双炸裂，股价却先跌为敬——这背后，藏着一个关于“预期已经太高”的市场逻辑。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据追风交易台消息，4月30日，闪迪发布了2026财年第一季度财报。当晚，一份来自华尔街的研究报告随即出炉，对这份财报及公司前景作出详细解读。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛认为短期的下跌，更多是情绪和仓位的释放，而非基本面的问题。该行表示，“我们预计股价最终将走高”，并将12个月目标价从700美元大幅上调至1200美元，EPS预测平均上调约55%。</p><h2 id=\"id_2995369986\" style=\"text-align: left;\">为什么“炸裂财报”换来下跌？</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">财报数据本身没有任何悬念——全面超预期，而且超出幅度相当惊人。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">闪迪第一季度营收59.5亿美元，比分析师预期的51.01亿美元高出16.6%，比市场整体预期的47.81亿美元高出24.5%。毛利率达到78.4%，比分析师预期的69.8%高出近9个百分点。非GAAP每股收益23.41美元，比分析师预期的17.00美元高出37.7%，比市场整体预期的15.11美元高出近55%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">然而，股价盘后一度下跌6%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在财报发布前，闪迪股价已经经历了一轮大幅拉升——NAND存储供需偏紧、数据中心SSD需求爆发、行业定价预期持续走强，这些利好早已被市场提前消化。投资者的预期，在财报发布前已经被推到了相当高的位置。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">用报告的原话来说：“我们认为，由于股价在财报前大幅上涨，投资者预期已经显著提升。”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>换句话说，财报再好，也需要超过“已经很高的预期”，才能推动股价进一步上行。短期的下跌，更多是情绪和仓位的释放，而非基本面的问题。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">报告明确表示：<strong>“尽管股价初期下跌6%，我们预计股价最终将走高。”</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_775125038\" style=\"text-align: left;\">二季度指引：再度大幅超预期</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">如果说一季度财报是“超预期”，那二季度指引则是“再度超预期”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">闪迪给出的二季度营收指引中值为80亿美元（区间77.5亿至82.5亿美元），比分析师预期的66.49亿美元高出20.3%，比市场整体预期的69.68亿美元高出14.8%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>毛利率指引为80%，比分析师预期的74.5%高出约5.5个百分点。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">非GAAP每股收益指引区间为30至33美元，中值31.50美元，比分析师预期的24.21美元高出30.1%，比市场整体预期的25.96美元高出21.3%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">环比来看，营收指引中值较一季度实际营收增长约34.5%，同比增幅高达372%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>这组数字，几乎没有留下任何可以“失望”的空间。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_385914130\" style=\"text-align: left;\">420亿美元供应协议：锁定未来，但还需观察</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">财报中另一个值得关注的信息，是闪迪披露的“新商业模式”（NBMs，New Business Models）进展。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">简单来说，闪迪正在与客户签订长期供应协议——客户提前锁定供货，闪迪获得稳定、可预期的收入。这类似于“预售+长约”的模式，对双方都有好处：客户不用担心供货紧张，闪迪则能提前锁定收入和利润。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">目前，闪迪已签署五份此类协议，并正在与其他客户积极谈判。其中三份合同的总合同价值达到420亿美元，包含110亿美元的保障性收入和4亿美元的预付款。这三份协议覆盖了闪迪FY27计划产能的约35%，管理层表示未来有望进一步提升这一比例。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">报告对此的评价是：“我们认为这些协议是积极的第一步，但在获得更多关于协议细节和客户范围的信息之前，现在宣布行业结构性转变还为时过早。”</p><h2 id=\"id_3076123290\" style=\"text-align: left;\">NAND供需：持续偏紧，毛利率仍有上行空间</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">闪迪管理层在财报电话会上明确表示，NAND行业在整个2026年及以后将持续处于供给偏紧状态。公司目前没有计划改变约20%的年度比特供给增速。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">与此同时，企业级市场需求正在加速——2026年企业级比特需求增速预计达到60%以上的高位。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">报告认为，在供给受限、需求加速的双重驱动下，闪迪的毛利率仍有进一步提升空间，尽管在公司已给出约80%毛利率指引的背景下，后续预期上调的幅度可能会趋于收窄。</p><h2 id=\"id_2946426395\" style=\"text-align: left;\">企业级SSD：从小基数起步，份额提升空间大</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">闪迪的企业级SSD（eSSD）业务正在快速成长。目前，数据中心产品已占公司总营收的25%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在产品层面，闪迪已完成TLC企业级固态硬盘对多家超大规模云计算客户的认证，并计划在今年6月季度开始出货QLC企业级固态硬盘。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">报告判断：“我们认为，闪迪将在未来几个季度内，从相对较低的基数出发，在这一市场中获得显著的份额提升。”</p><h2 id=\"id_1695656664\" style=\"text-align: left;\">目标价大幅上调，EPS预测全面上修</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">基于上述判断，<strong>报告将闪迪12个月目标价从700美元大幅上调至1200美元，上调幅度达71%。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf0385faa91620423a162b242868d951\" tg-width=\"728\" tg-height=\"684\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">目标价基于22倍市盈率（倍数不变），对应的归一化EPS估算从32美元上调至55美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">以报告发布时的股价1096.51美元计算，目标价对应的潜在上涨空间约为9.4%至9.8%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">EPS预测方面，报告将各年度预测平均上调约55%：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">CY2026年EPS预测从101.90美元上调至155.00美元，上调52.1%</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">CY2027年EPS预测从127.50美元上调至207.00美元，上调62.3%</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">CY2028年EPS预测从120.00美元上调至177.00美元，上调47.5%</p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: left;\">报告同时指出，对美光也预计会有正面反应，因为美光同样有NAND终端市场敞口。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>闪迪财报炸裂却大跌！高盛：大幅上调目标价，股价终将走高</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n闪迪财报炸裂却大跌！高盛：大幅上调目标价，股价终将走高\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-05-01 16:25</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>尽管闪迪股价盘后一度下跌6%，分析师认为这是前期预期过高所致，并将12个月目标价从700美元大幅上调至1200美元，EPS预测平均上调约55%。短期的下跌，更多是情绪和仓位的释放，而非基本面的问题。“我们预计股价最终将走高。”</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">财报和指引双双炸裂，股价却先跌为敬——这背后，藏着一个关于“预期已经太高”的市场逻辑。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据追风交易台消息，4月30日，闪迪发布了2026财年第一季度财报。当晚，一份来自华尔街的研究报告随即出炉，对这份财报及公司前景作出详细解读。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛认为短期的下跌，更多是情绪和仓位的释放，而非基本面的问题。该行表示，“我们预计股价最终将走高”，并将12个月目标价从700美元大幅上调至1200美元，EPS预测平均上调约55%。</p><h2 id=\"id_2995369986\" style=\"text-align: left;\">为什么“炸裂财报”换来下跌？</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">财报数据本身没有任何悬念——全面超预期，而且超出幅度相当惊人。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">闪迪第一季度营收59.5亿美元，比分析师预期的51.01亿美元高出16.6%，比市场整体预期的47.81亿美元高出24.5%。毛利率达到78.4%，比分析师预期的69.8%高出近9个百分点。非GAAP每股收益23.41美元，比分析师预期的17.00美元高出37.7%，比市场整体预期的15.11美元高出近55%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">然而，股价盘后一度下跌6%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在财报发布前，闪迪股价已经经历了一轮大幅拉升——NAND存储供需偏紧、数据中心SSD需求爆发、行业定价预期持续走强，这些利好早已被市场提前消化。投资者的预期，在财报发布前已经被推到了相当高的位置。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">用报告的原话来说：“我们认为，由于股价在财报前大幅上涨，投资者预期已经显著提升。”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>换句话说，财报再好，也需要超过“已经很高的预期”，才能推动股价进一步上行。短期的下跌，更多是情绪和仓位的释放，而非基本面的问题。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">报告明确表示：<strong>“尽管股价初期下跌6%，我们预计股价最终将走高。”</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_775125038\" style=\"text-align: left;\">二季度指引：再度大幅超预期</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">如果说一季度财报是“超预期”，那二季度指引则是“再度超预期”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">闪迪给出的二季度营收指引中值为80亿美元（区间77.5亿至82.5亿美元），比分析师预期的66.49亿美元高出20.3%，比市场整体预期的69.68亿美元高出14.8%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>毛利率指引为80%，比分析师预期的74.5%高出约5.5个百分点。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">非GAAP每股收益指引区间为30至33美元，中值31.50美元，比分析师预期的24.21美元高出30.1%，比市场整体预期的25.96美元高出21.3%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">环比来看，营收指引中值较一季度实际营收增长约34.5%，同比增幅高达372%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>这组数字，几乎没有留下任何可以“失望”的空间。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_385914130\" style=\"text-align: left;\">420亿美元供应协议：锁定未来，但还需观察</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">财报中另一个值得关注的信息，是闪迪披露的“新商业模式”（NBMs，New Business Models）进展。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">简单来说，闪迪正在与客户签订长期供应协议——客户提前锁定供货，闪迪获得稳定、可预期的收入。这类似于“预售+长约”的模式，对双方都有好处：客户不用担心供货紧张，闪迪则能提前锁定收入和利润。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">目前，闪迪已签署五份此类协议，并正在与其他客户积极谈判。其中三份合同的总合同价值达到420亿美元，包含110亿美元的保障性收入和4亿美元的预付款。这三份协议覆盖了闪迪FY27计划产能的约35%，管理层表示未来有望进一步提升这一比例。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">报告对此的评价是：“我们认为这些协议是积极的第一步，但在获得更多关于协议细节和客户范围的信息之前，现在宣布行业结构性转变还为时过早。”</p><h2 id=\"id_3076123290\" style=\"text-align: left;\">NAND供需：持续偏紧，毛利率仍有上行空间</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">闪迪管理层在财报电话会上明确表示，NAND行业在整个2026年及以后将持续处于供给偏紧状态。公司目前没有计划改变约20%的年度比特供给增速。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">与此同时，企业级市场需求正在加速——2026年企业级比特需求增速预计达到60%以上的高位。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">报告认为，在供给受限、需求加速的双重驱动下，闪迪的毛利率仍有进一步提升空间，尽管在公司已给出约80%毛利率指引的背景下，后续预期上调的幅度可能会趋于收窄。</p><h2 id=\"id_2946426395\" style=\"text-align: left;\">企业级SSD：从小基数起步，份额提升空间大</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">闪迪的企业级SSD（eSSD）业务正在快速成长。目前，数据中心产品已占公司总营收的25%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在产品层面，闪迪已完成TLC企业级固态硬盘对多家超大规模云计算客户的认证，并计划在今年6月季度开始出货QLC企业级固态硬盘。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">报告判断：“我们认为，闪迪将在未来几个季度内，从相对较低的基数出发，在这一市场中获得显著的份额提升。”</p><h2 id=\"id_1695656664\" style=\"text-align: left;\">目标价大幅上调，EPS预测全面上修</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">基于上述判断，<strong>报告将闪迪12个月目标价从700美元大幅上调至1200美元，上调幅度达71%。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf0385faa91620423a162b242868d951\" tg-width=\"728\" tg-height=\"684\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">目标价基于22倍市盈率（倍数不变），对应的归一化EPS估算从32美元上调至55美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">以报告发布时的股价1096.51美元计算，目标价对应的潜在上涨空间约为9.4%至9.8%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">EPS预测方面，报告将各年度预测平均上调约55%：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">CY2026年EPS预测从101.90美元上调至155.00美元，上调52.1%</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">CY2027年EPS预测从127.50美元上调至207.00美元，上调62.3%</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">CY2028年EPS预测从120.00美元上调至177.00美元，上调47.5%</p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: left;\">报告同时指出，对美光也预计会有正面反应，因为美光同样有NAND终端市场敞口。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5c9124bf621678cf057f227b528cf22","relate_stocks":{"LU0054578231.USD":"BGF SYSTEMATIC SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL SMALLCAP \"A2\" (USD) ACC","BK4170":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边","LU0963586101.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SMALL CAP EQUITY \"AT\" ACC","SNXX":"Tradr 2X Long SNDK Daily ETF","SNDK":"闪迪"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3771456","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2632618514","content_text":"尽管闪迪股价盘后一度下跌6%，分析师认为这是前期预期过高所致，并将12个月目标价从700美元大幅上调至1200美元，EPS预测平均上调约55%。短期的下跌，更多是情绪和仓位的释放，而非基本面的问题。“我们预计股价最终将走高。”财报和指引双双炸裂，股价却先跌为敬——这背后，藏着一个关于“预期已经太高”的市场逻辑。据追风交易台消息，4月30日，闪迪发布了2026财年第一季度财报。当晚，一份来自华尔街的研究报告随即出炉，对这份财报及公司前景作出详细解读。高盛认为短期的下跌，更多是情绪和仓位的释放，而非基本面的问题。该行表示，“我们预计股价最终将走高”，并将12个月目标价从700美元大幅上调至1200美元，EPS预测平均上调约55%。为什么“炸裂财报”换来下跌？财报数据本身没有任何悬念——全面超预期，而且超出幅度相当惊人。闪迪第一季度营收59.5亿美元，比分析师预期的51.01亿美元高出16.6%，比市场整体预期的47.81亿美元高出24.5%。毛利率达到78.4%，比分析师预期的69.8%高出近9个百分点。非GAAP每股收益23.41美元，比分析师预期的17.00美元高出37.7%，比市场整体预期的15.11美元高出近55%。然而，股价盘后一度下跌6%。在财报发布前，闪迪股价已经经历了一轮大幅拉升——NAND存储供需偏紧、数据中心SSD需求爆发、行业定价预期持续走强，这些利好早已被市场提前消化。投资者的预期，在财报发布前已经被推到了相当高的位置。用报告的原话来说：“我们认为，由于股价在财报前大幅上涨，投资者预期已经显著提升。”换句话说，财报再好，也需要超过“已经很高的预期”，才能推动股价进一步上行。短期的下跌，更多是情绪和仓位的释放，而非基本面的问题。报告明确表示：“尽管股价初期下跌6%，我们预计股价最终将走高。”二季度指引：再度大幅超预期如果说一季度财报是“超预期”，那二季度指引则是“再度超预期”。闪迪给出的二季度营收指引中值为80亿美元（区间77.5亿至82.5亿美元），比分析师预期的66.49亿美元高出20.3%，比市场整体预期的69.68亿美元高出14.8%。毛利率指引为80%，比分析师预期的74.5%高出约5.5个百分点。非GAAP每股收益指引区间为30至33美元，中值31.50美元，比分析师预期的24.21美元高出30.1%，比市场整体预期的25.96美元高出21.3%。环比来看，营收指引中值较一季度实际营收增长约34.5%，同比增幅高达372%。这组数字，几乎没有留下任何可以“失望”的空间。420亿美元供应协议：锁定未来，但还需观察财报中另一个值得关注的信息，是闪迪披露的“新商业模式”（NBMs，New Business Models）进展。简单来说，闪迪正在与客户签订长期供应协议——客户提前锁定供货，闪迪获得稳定、可预期的收入。这类似于“预售+长约”的模式，对双方都有好处：客户不用担心供货紧张，闪迪则能提前锁定收入和利润。目前，闪迪已签署五份此类协议，并正在与其他客户积极谈判。其中三份合同的总合同价值达到420亿美元，包含110亿美元的保障性收入和4亿美元的预付款。这三份协议覆盖了闪迪FY27计划产能的约35%，管理层表示未来有望进一步提升这一比例。报告对此的评价是：“我们认为这些协议是积极的第一步，但在获得更多关于协议细节和客户范围的信息之前，现在宣布行业结构性转变还为时过早。”NAND供需：持续偏紧，毛利率仍有上行空间闪迪管理层在财报电话会上明确表示，NAND行业在整个2026年及以后将持续处于供给偏紧状态。公司目前没有计划改变约20%的年度比特供给增速。与此同时，企业级市场需求正在加速——2026年企业级比特需求增速预计达到60%以上的高位。报告认为，在供给受限、需求加速的双重驱动下，闪迪的毛利率仍有进一步提升空间，尽管在公司已给出约80%毛利率指引的背景下，后续预期上调的幅度可能会趋于收窄。企业级SSD：从小基数起步，份额提升空间大闪迪的企业级SSD（eSSD）业务正在快速成长。目前，数据中心产品已占公司总营收的25%。在产品层面，闪迪已完成TLC企业级固态硬盘对多家超大规模云计算客户的认证，并计划在今年6月季度开始出货QLC企业级固态硬盘。报告判断：“我们认为，闪迪将在未来几个季度内，从相对较低的基数出发，在这一市场中获得显著的份额提升。”目标价大幅上调，EPS预测全面上修基于上述判断，报告将闪迪12个月目标价从700美元大幅上调至1200美元，上调幅度达71%。目标价基于22倍市盈率（倍数不变），对应的归一化EPS估算从32美元上调至55美元。以报告发布时的股价1096.51美元计算，目标价对应的潜在上涨空间约为9.4%至9.8%。EPS预测方面，报告将各年度预测平均上调约55%：CY2026年EPS预测从101.90美元上调至155.00美元，上调52.1%CY2027年EPS预测从127.50美元上调至207.00美元，上调62.3%CY2028年EPS预测从120.00美元上调至177.00美元，上调47.5%报告同时指出，对美光也预计会有正面反应，因为美光同样有NAND终端市场敞口。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SNXX":0.6,"SNDK":1.98}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":502,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}