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飞飞618
10-31 22:13
$DJT 20241108 50.0 CALL$
基本上是捡钱的机会了…控制好仓位,千载难逢
飞飞618
10-30 13:11
10.7以来,在持有潮玩、互联网、资源品多头的同时,卖出中芯和融创的看涨期权,港股公司在估值明显偏高的时候,修正会比a股快。且期权费相当于股价的20%+,这波还是完整吃到了。 还是那句话,机会来的时候,不要用针顶,而要用盆接。今天资金回来后,晚上可以卖出特朗普科技的看涨期权了~
飞飞618
10-28
刚对中芯国际的卖出看涨期权换了下仓,感觉行权价29的看涨期权的时间价值异常高,试一下。
飞飞618
10-25
$SMC.HK 20241030 30.00 CALL$
继续空,用来做多头端的对冲。
飞飞618
10-25
$泡泡玛特(09992)$
短期涨幅较大,自身就需要调整,大股东减持刚好是一个契机。目前的股价,在没有突发意外事件的情况下基本能维持平衡,后续会把关注度放在四季度的经营业绩上。 总之,好公司会经常给大家带来惊喜,差公司总是给大家带来惊吓,克服对优质成长股的恐高症,行业还远未到成熟期,淡化短期估值,强化企业经营方向和企业家精神。
飞飞618
10-24
反思今年最大的投资失误——中国宏桥。 能想到一只翻倍的股票,我是亏钱出来的嘛……各种心塞…… 1.年初就以潮玩、互联网和资源品三条主线为全年投资机会。铝的逻辑是供给端每年4500万吨是fgw限制死的,没有更多供给冲击,只要需求端不崩,铝的竞争格局会非常好(宏桥、中铝和云铝)。 2.宏桥相比中铝云铝,弹性更大且在港股,预期差也更大,当时大家对宏桥的财务有质疑,预期差非常明显,估值也比中铝云铝低。 3.最该反思的是交易行为,犯了低点低仓位,高点高仓位的错误。一开始的时候轻仓,涨了开始加仓,贪婪暴露的一览无遗,高点回撤20%后,吃掉了所有利润。 4.总结:第一,周期股波动大,切忌追涨杀跌。第二,仓位管理很重要,要么底部重仓越涨越轻仓,要么初始仓位保持不动,最差的就是追涨杀跌。第三,周期股看价格大周期即可,不用盯着每天铝价的波动,想赚差价,到头来得不偿失。
飞飞618
10-24
复盘一下这轮卖出中芯、融创看涨期权的投资: 1.10.7形成思路,加上当时期权费真的很香,选择卖出看涨期权而不是买入看跌期权。形成思路到下单,十几分钟时间完成,主要矛盾太突出,常识判断即可。 2.值得反思的地方也有几点:第一,还是担心股价继续涨怎么办,没有卖出实值看涨期权,而是卖出了平值和虚值,没有充分吃到权利金。第二,小心被平仓,小心被平仓,小心被平仓,重要的事情说三遍!即使做期权卖方,仓位也不要打的太慢,上周五中芯大涨,还被动平了几手,回头看有点可惜。第三,不要裸空,即使港股个股的权利金比美股香,也不要单纯去赌方向,否则心态绝对炸裂,多空比建议不低于5:1,长期看,做多才是王道。
飞飞618
10-23
$泡泡玛特(09992)$
三季度业绩预告出来之后,市场对泡泡玛特更加乐观,讨论从之前的是否会涨变成了估值是否偏高。 个人认为,对于成长股投资,成长阶段不要过于关注行业竞争格局和静态估值水平,只要增速不放缓,抱团大概率都不瓦解(市场别太差),后续跟踪季报增速即可。
飞飞618
10-22
$泡泡玛特(09992)$
真的是太顶了,毫无瑕疵的业绩。经济下行,压力增加,提供情绪价值的生意是好生意。
飞飞618
10-22
$SMC.HK 20241030 29.00 CALL$
卖出中芯国际看涨期权,在经历了上周五的大幅亏损后,昨天今天继续加仓。逻辑如下: 1.中长期看,现在的估值水平毫无意义是偏高的。一个重资产的制造业,需要极强的技术优势和壁垒以获得更大的规模和更高的毛利率,毫无意义,台积电是no.1。 2.短期情绪推动,a股和h股联合暴涨,透支了后续短期的涨幅。对于大盘股来说,每天100亿+的成交金额很难持续。 3.期权价格很香。8天的看涨期权隐含波动率超过100%,最高时候的期权费接近股价的10%,较高的盈亏平衡点提供了投资的安全边际。 4.港股多头端持有潮玩、资源品、互联网,多头比例高于空头,心里不慌,不能裸空。
飞飞618
10-21
短期情绪支持上涨,中长期看绝对偏贵了。一家半导体制造公司,无论从营收、利润、毛利或者未来空间,都没有这么大,短期确实是政策和情绪的体现。 目前卖出中芯国际的看涨期权略有浮亏(第一波卖出盈利,第二波亏损),后续会拉长时间继续开仓,吃权利金。
飞飞618
10-18
$SMC.HK 20241030 31.00 CALL$
苦等机会而不得,平仓一部分卖出融创看涨期权,继续卖出中芯国际看涨期权。
飞飞618
10-17
当机会来临的时候,不要用针顶,而要用盆接。 思考:1.千万不要做空美股,胜率太低。2.可以做空港股高估值、没有基本面支撑个股,胜率比较高。3.不要裸空,多头的比例一定要高于空头,不然心态会受到影响。4.卖出期权,时间尽可能拉长。
飞飞618
10-17
$SUN.HK 20241030 2.60 CALL$
继续卖出融创看涨期权…
飞飞618
10-17
离岸市场看三个因素:1.中国政策和经济,2.美联储流动性,3.中美关系。市场在博弈1,2短期影响不大,3如果是特朗普上台,短期会对市场有扰动。还是看不太清楚
飞飞618
10-17
地产股还是以博弈政策为主。有投资机会的比较少吧:1.贝壳(收佣金,看二手房成交量)。2.经营稳健的开发商,龙湖等。
飞飞618
10-16
$SUN.HK 20241030 3.00 CALL$
继续卖出看涨期权~
飞飞618
10-16
$SMC.HK 20241030 33.00 CALL$
平仓,全换到卖出融创看涨期权上去。
飞飞618
10-16
$SUN.HK 20241030 3.00 CALL$
继续卖出…
飞飞618
10-16
$英伟达(NVDA)$
长期第一,应该是不可能的事情,护城河比苹果微软还是弱一些。
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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基本上是捡钱的机会了…控制好仓位,千载难逢","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc45c03e17edd17ddbedba5a3433c836","width":"981","height":"1637"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/365946380951824","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":144,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":365627789357288,"gmtCreate":1730265119980,"gmtModify":1730265125546,"author":{"id":"4188000553069702","authorId":"4188000553069702","name":"飞飞618","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53765af928600e917b62ccf7c5802c50","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4188000553069702","idStr":"4188000553069702"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"10.7以来,在持有潮玩、互联网、资源品多头的同时,卖出中芯和融创的看涨期权,港股公司在估值明显偏高的时候,修正会比a股快。且期权费相当于股价的20%+,这波还是完整吃到了。 还是那句话,机会来的时候,不要用针顶,而要用盆接。今天资金回来后,晚上可以卖出特朗普科技的看涨期权了~","listText":"10.7以来,在持有潮玩、互联网、资源品多头的同时,卖出中芯和融创的看涨期权,港股公司在估值明显偏高的时候,修正会比a股快。且期权费相当于股价的20%+,这波还是完整吃到了。 还是那句话,机会来的时候,不要用针顶,而要用盆接。今天资金回来后,晚上可以卖出特朗普科技的看涨期权了~","text":"10.7以来,在持有潮玩、互联网、资源品多头的同时,卖出中芯和融创的看涨期权,港股公司在估值明显偏高的时候,修正会比a股快。且期权费相当于股价的20%+,这波还是完整吃到了。 还是那句话,机会来的时候,不要用针顶,而要用盆接。今天资金回来后,晚上可以卖出特朗普科技的看涨期权了~","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5bdcb995df7f0f6bf070dde7e42dba4","width":"1194","height":"692"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/365627789357288","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":82,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":364903168774408,"gmtCreate":1730097782916,"gmtModify":1730097978204,"author":{"id":"4188000553069702","authorId":"4188000553069702","name":"飞飞618","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53765af928600e917b62ccf7c5802c50","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4188000553069702","idStr":"4188000553069702"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"刚对中芯国际的卖出看涨期权换了下仓,感觉行权价29的看涨期权的时间价值异常高,试一下。","listText":"刚对中芯国际的卖出看涨期权换了下仓,感觉行权价29的看涨期权的时间价值异常高,试一下。","text":"刚对中芯国际的卖出看涨期权换了下仓,感觉行权价29的看涨期权的时间价值异常高,试一下。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8188f51a315a0300d86254a8ce35450","width":"981","height":"1637"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/364903168774408","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":82,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4188000553069702","authorId":"4188000553069702","name":"飞飞618","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53765af928600e917b62ccf7c5802c50","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4188000553069702","idStr":"4188000553069702"},"content":"平仓行权价32的卖出看涨期权,开仓行权价29的卖出看涨期权。","text":"平仓行权价32的卖出看涨期权,开仓行权价29的卖出看涨期权。","html":"平仓行权价32的卖出看涨期权,开仓行权价29的卖出看涨期权。"}],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":363826690555984,"gmtCreate":1729834997280,"gmtModify":1729835669071,"author":{"id":"4188000553069702","authorId":"4188000553069702","name":"飞飞618","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53765af928600e917b62ccf7c5802c50","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4188000553069702","idStr":"4188000553069702"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/SMC.HK 20241030 30.00 CALL\">$SMC.HK 20241030 30.00 CALL$</a> 继续空,用来做多头端的对冲。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/SMC.HK 20241030 30.00 CALL\">$SMC.HK 20241030 30.00 CALL$</a> 继续空,用来做多头端的对冲。","text":"$SMC.HK 20241030 30.00 CALL$ 继续空,用来做多头端的对冲。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd5311fdc736eb60b0726443a4111739","width":"981","height":"1637"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/363826690555984","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":359,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":363641108689216,"gmtCreate":1729822164245,"gmtModify":1729822167625,"author":{"id":"4188000553069702","authorId":"4188000553069702","name":"飞飞618","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53765af928600e917b62ccf7c5802c50","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4188000553069702","idStr":"4188000553069702"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09992\">$泡泡玛特(09992)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 短期涨幅较大,自身就需要调整,大股东减持刚好是一个契机。目前的股价,在没有突发意外事件的情况下基本能维持平衡,后续会把关注度放在四季度的经营业绩上。 总之,好公司会经常给大家带来惊喜,差公司总是给大家带来惊吓,克服对优质成长股的恐高症,行业还远未到成熟期,淡化短期估值,强化企业经营方向和企业家精神。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09992\">$泡泡玛特(09992)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 短期涨幅较大,自身就需要调整,大股东减持刚好是一个契机。目前的股价,在没有突发意外事件的情况下基本能维持平衡,后续会把关注度放在四季度的经营业绩上。 总之,好公司会经常给大家带来惊喜,差公司总是给大家带来惊吓,克服对优质成长股的恐高症,行业还远未到成熟期,淡化短期估值,强化企业经营方向和企业家精神。","text":"$泡泡玛特(09992)$ 短期涨幅较大,自身就需要调整,大股东减持刚好是一个契机。目前的股价,在没有突发意外事件的情况下基本能维持平衡,后续会把关注度放在四季度的经营业绩上。 总之,好公司会经常给大家带来惊喜,差公司总是给大家带来惊吓,克服对优质成长股的恐高症,行业还远未到成熟期,淡化短期估值,强化企业经营方向和企业家精神。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/363641108689216","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":655,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":363421468876936,"gmtCreate":1729751369163,"gmtModify":1729752705162,"author":{"id":"4188000553069702","authorId":"4188000553069702","name":"飞飞618","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53765af928600e917b62ccf7c5802c50","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4188000553069702","idStr":"4188000553069702"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"反思今年最大的投资失误——中国宏桥。 能想到一只翻倍的股票,我是亏钱出来的嘛……各种心塞…… 1.年初就以潮玩、互联网和资源品三条主线为全年投资机会。铝的逻辑是供给端每年4500万吨是fgw限制死的,没有更多供给冲击,只要需求端不崩,铝的竞争格局会非常好(宏桥、中铝和云铝)。 2.宏桥相比中铝云铝,弹性更大且在港股,预期差也更大,当时大家对宏桥的财务有质疑,预期差非常明显,估值也比中铝云铝低。 3.最该反思的是交易行为,犯了低点低仓位,高点高仓位的错误。一开始的时候轻仓,涨了开始加仓,贪婪暴露的一览无遗,高点回撤20%后,吃掉了所有利润。 4.总结:第一,周期股波动大,切忌追涨杀跌。第二,仓位管理很重要,要么底部重仓越涨越轻仓,要么初始仓位保持不动,最差的就是追涨杀跌。第三,周期股看价格大周期即可,不用盯着每天铝价的波动,想赚差价,到头来得不偿失。","listText":"反思今年最大的投资失误——中国宏桥。 能想到一只翻倍的股票,我是亏钱出来的嘛……各种心塞…… 1.年初就以潮玩、互联网和资源品三条主线为全年投资机会。铝的逻辑是供给端每年4500万吨是fgw限制死的,没有更多供给冲击,只要需求端不崩,铝的竞争格局会非常好(宏桥、中铝和云铝)。 2.宏桥相比中铝云铝,弹性更大且在港股,预期差也更大,当时大家对宏桥的财务有质疑,预期差非常明显,估值也比中铝云铝低。 3.最该反思的是交易行为,犯了低点低仓位,高点高仓位的错误。一开始的时候轻仓,涨了开始加仓,贪婪暴露的一览无遗,高点回撤20%后,吃掉了所有利润。 4.总结:第一,周期股波动大,切忌追涨杀跌。第二,仓位管理很重要,要么底部重仓越涨越轻仓,要么初始仓位保持不动,最差的就是追涨杀跌。第三,周期股看价格大周期即可,不用盯着每天铝价的波动,想赚差价,到头来得不偿失。","text":"反思今年最大的投资失误——中国宏桥。 能想到一只翻倍的股票,我是亏钱出来的嘛……各种心塞…… 1.年初就以潮玩、互联网和资源品三条主线为全年投资机会。铝的逻辑是供给端每年4500万吨是fgw限制死的,没有更多供给冲击,只要需求端不崩,铝的竞争格局会非常好(宏桥、中铝和云铝)。 2.宏桥相比中铝云铝,弹性更大且在港股,预期差也更大,当时大家对宏桥的财务有质疑,预期差非常明显,估值也比中铝云铝低。 3.最该反思的是交易行为,犯了低点低仓位,高点高仓位的错误。一开始的时候轻仓,涨了开始加仓,贪婪暴露的一览无遗,高点回撤20%后,吃掉了所有利润。 4.总结:第一,周期股波动大,切忌追涨杀跌。第二,仓位管理很重要,要么底部重仓越涨越轻仓,要么初始仓位保持不动,最差的就是追涨杀跌。第三,周期股看价格大周期即可,不用盯着每天铝价的波动,想赚差价,到头来得不偿失。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/958af5a3b2a18d2fba64d9f51ca56bec","width":"1206","height":"2622"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/363421468876936","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5983,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"9000000000000146","authorId":"9000000000000146","name":"提拉米苏丝","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ba92b9c59fc0bce34e05548ce24ca50","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"9000000000000146","idStr":"9000000000000146"},"content":"反思是成长的一种方式,感谢你分享这次投资失误经历","text":"反思是成长的一种方式,感谢你分享这次投资失误经历","html":"反思是成长的一种方式,感谢你分享这次投资失误经历"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":363211355119848,"gmtCreate":1729699925411,"gmtModify":1729701418195,"author":{"id":"4188000553069702","authorId":"4188000553069702","name":"飞飞618","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53765af928600e917b62ccf7c5802c50","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4188000553069702","idStr":"4188000553069702"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"复盘一下这轮卖出中芯、融创看涨期权的投资: 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个人认为,对于成长股投资,成长阶段不要过于关注行业竞争格局和静态估值水平,只要增速不放缓,抱团大概率都不瓦解(市场别太差),后续跟踪季报增速即可。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/363097416454384","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":8530,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"9000000000000157","authorId":"9000000000000157","name":"小狗摩天轮","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0965d3709fcccd732467fba87aa4ea6e","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"9000000000000157","idStr":"9000000000000157"},"content":"同意你的观点,成长股的投资主要还是看公司的增速和前景,不需要过于担心行业竞争和估值","text":"同意你的观点,成长股的投资主要还是看公司的增速和前景,不需要过于担心行业竞争和估值","html":"同意你的观点,成长股的投资主要还是看公司的增速和前景,不需要过于担心行业竞争和估值"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":362789726490824,"gmtCreate":1729594192322,"gmtModify":1729602030825,"author":{"id":"4188000553069702","authorId":"4188000553069702","name":"飞飞618","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53765af928600e917b62ccf7c5802c50","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4188000553069702","idStr":"4188000553069702"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09992\">$泡泡玛特(09992)$ </a> 真的是太顶了,毫无瑕疵的业绩。经济下行,压力增加,提供情绪价值的生意是好生意。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09992\">$泡泡玛特(09992)$ </a> 真的是太顶了,毫无瑕疵的业绩。经济下行,压力增加,提供情绪价值的生意是好生意。","text":"$泡泡玛特(09992)$ 真的是太顶了,毫无瑕疵的业绩。经济下行,压力增加,提供情绪价值的生意是好生意。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cdad387e7ab3158888b4430e2df9e344","width":"1206","height":"2622"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/362789726490824","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1046,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":362661306081608,"gmtCreate":1729582205292,"gmtModify":1729583770616,"author":{"id":"4188000553069702","authorId":"4188000553069702","name":"飞飞618","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53765af928600e917b62ccf7c5802c50","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4188000553069702","idStr":"4188000553069702"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/SMC.HK 20241030 29.00 CALL\">$SMC.HK 20241030 29.00 CALL$</a> 卖出中芯国际看涨期权,在经历了上周五的大幅亏损后,昨天今天继续加仓。逻辑如下: 1.中长期看,现在的估值水平毫无意义是偏高的。一个重资产的制造业,需要极强的技术优势和壁垒以获得更大的规模和更高的毛利率,毫无意义,台积电是no.1。 2.短期情绪推动,a股和h股联合暴涨,透支了后续短期的涨幅。对于大盘股来说,每天100亿+的成交金额很难持续。 3.期权价格很香。8天的看涨期权隐含波动率超过100%,最高时候的期权费接近股价的10%,较高的盈亏平衡点提供了投资的安全边际。 4.港股多头端持有潮玩、资源品、互联网,多头比例高于空头,心里不慌,不能裸空。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/SMC.HK 20241030 29.00 CALL\">$SMC.HK 20241030 29.00 CALL$</a> 卖出中芯国际看涨期权,在经历了上周五的大幅亏损后,昨天今天继续加仓。逻辑如下: 1.中长期看,现在的估值水平毫无意义是偏高的。一个重资产的制造业,需要极强的技术优势和壁垒以获得更大的规模和更高的毛利率,毫无意义,台积电是no.1。 2.短期情绪推动,a股和h股联合暴涨,透支了后续短期的涨幅。对于大盘股来说,每天100亿+的成交金额很难持续。 3.期权价格很香。8天的看涨期权隐含波动率超过100%,最高时候的期权费接近股价的10%,较高的盈亏平衡点提供了投资的安全边际。 4.港股多头端持有潮玩、资源品、互联网,多头比例高于空头,心里不慌,不能裸空。","text":"$SMC.HK 20241030 29.00 CALL$ 卖出中芯国际看涨期权,在经历了上周五的大幅亏损后,昨天今天继续加仓。逻辑如下: 1.中长期看,现在的估值水平毫无意义是偏高的。一个重资产的制造业,需要极强的技术优势和壁垒以获得更大的规模和更高的毛利率,毫无意义,台积电是no.1。 2.短期情绪推动,a股和h股联合暴涨,透支了后续短期的涨幅。对于大盘股来说,每天100亿+的成交金额很难持续。 3.期权价格很香。8天的看涨期权隐含波动率超过100%,最高时候的期权费接近股价的10%,较高的盈亏平衡点提供了投资的安全边际。 4.港股多头端持有潮玩、资源品、互联网,多头比例高于空头,心里不慌,不能裸空。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34b676f1889dbf9794f9fa6f247c7045","width":"981","height":"1637"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/362661306081608","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":7291,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":362338032771160,"gmtCreate":1729480180437,"gmtModify":1729480183218,"author":{"id":"4188000553069702","authorId":"4188000553069702","name":"飞飞618","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53765af928600e917b62ccf7c5802c50","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4188000553069702","idStr":"4188000553069702"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"短期情绪支持上涨,中长期看绝对偏贵了。一家半导体制造公司,无论从营收、利润、毛利或者未来空间,都没有这么大,短期确实是政策和情绪的体现。 目前卖出中芯国际的看涨期权略有浮亏(第一波卖出盈利,第二波亏损),后续会拉长时间继续开仓,吃权利金。","listText":"短期情绪支持上涨,中长期看绝对偏贵了。一家半导体制造公司,无论从营收、利润、毛利或者未来空间,都没有这么大,短期确实是政策和情绪的体现。 目前卖出中芯国际的看涨期权略有浮亏(第一波卖出盈利,第二波亏损),后续会拉长时间继续开仓,吃权利金。","text":"短期情绪支持上涨,中长期看绝对偏贵了。一家半导体制造公司,无论从营收、利润、毛利或者未来空间,都没有这么大,短期确实是政策和情绪的体现。 目前卖出中芯国际的看涨期权略有浮亏(第一波卖出盈利,第二波亏损),后续会拉长时间继续开仓,吃权利金。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/362338032771160","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":710,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":361240792830024,"gmtCreate":1729229071788,"gmtModify":1729229134061,"author":{"id":"4188000553069702","authorId":"4188000553069702","name":"飞飞618","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53765af928600e917b62ccf7c5802c50","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4188000553069702","idStr":"4188000553069702"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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苦等机会而不得,平仓一部分卖出融创看涨期权,继续卖出中芯国际看涨期权。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bf68e8de612aa05548e2ee58b8aa9f3","width":"981","height":"1637"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/361240792830024","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":425,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":360904093688048,"gmtCreate":1729136580015,"gmtModify":1729143423896,"author":{"id":"4188000553069702","authorId":"4188000553069702","name":"飞飞618","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53765af928600e917b62ccf7c5802c50","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4188000553069702","idStr":"4188000553069702"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"当机会来临的时候,不要用针顶,而要用盆接。 思考:1.千万不要做空美股,胜率太低。2.可以做空港股高估值、没有基本面支撑个股,胜率比较高。3.不要裸空,多头的比例一定要高于空头,不然心态会受到影响。4.卖出期权,时间尽可能拉长。","listText":"当机会来临的时候,不要用针顶,而要用盆接。 思考:1.千万不要做空美股,胜率太低。2.可以做空港股高估值、没有基本面支撑个股,胜率比较高。3.不要裸空,多头的比例一定要高于空头,不然心态会受到影响。4.卖出期权,时间尽可能拉长。","text":"当机会来临的时候,不要用针顶,而要用盆接。 思考:1.千万不要做空美股,胜率太低。2.可以做空港股高估值、没有基本面支撑个股,胜率比较高。3.不要裸空,多头的比例一定要高于空头,不然心态会受到影响。4.卖出期权,时间尽可能拉长。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e12f36104e81f3d4de607532a804b19c","width":"981","height":"1637"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd9ecd032bc4036b0f08f4b85ed8e7b3","width":"981","height":"1637"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8846a18e8ccc1dea038e36f6d85f06cb","width":"981","height":"1637"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/360904093688048","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6139,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3527667577115702","authorId":"3527667577115702","name":"小米死多头","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c36273dc153f2f9e76fe9da987b5084","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3527667577115702","idStr":"3527667577115702"},"content":"牛啊 为啥 sell call","text":"牛啊 为啥 sell call","html":"牛啊 为啥 sell call"}],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":360877708259352,"gmtCreate":1729130222326,"gmtModify":1729131533314,"author":{"id":"4188000553069702","authorId":"4188000553069702","name":"飞飞618","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53765af928600e917b62ccf7c5802c50","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4188000553069702","idStr":"4188000553069702"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/SUN.HK 20241030 2.60 CALL\">$SUN.HK 20241030 2.60 CALL$</a> 继续卖出融创看涨期权…","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/SUN.HK 20241030 2.60 CALL\">$SUN.HK 20241030 2.60 CALL$</a> 继续卖出融创看涨期权…","text":"$SUN.HK 20241030 2.60 CALL$ 继续卖出融创看涨期权…","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5123c97e3bc984b6db5e2ab994ccc46e","width":"981","height":"1637"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/360877708259352","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":294,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":360749524779296,"gmtCreate":1729098845404,"gmtModify":1729099413601,"author":{"id":"4188000553069702","authorId":"4188000553069702","name":"飞飞618","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53765af928600e917b62ccf7c5802c50","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4188000553069702","idStr":"4188000553069702"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"离岸市场看三个因素:1.中国政策和经济,2.美联储流动性,3.中美关系。市场在博弈1,2短期影响不大,3如果是特朗普上台,短期会对市场有扰动。还是看不太清楚","listText":"离岸市场看三个因素:1.中国政策和经济,2.美联储流动性,3.中美关系。市场在博弈1,2短期影响不大,3如果是特朗普上台,短期会对市场有扰动。还是看不太清楚","text":"离岸市场看三个因素:1.中国政策和经济,2.美联储流动性,3.中美关系。市场在博弈1,2短期影响不大,3如果是特朗普上台,短期会对市场有扰动。还是看不太清楚","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/360749524779296","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":217,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":360682655084848,"gmtCreate":1729098704120,"gmtModify":1729098706396,"author":{"id":"4188000553069702","authorId":"4188000553069702","name":"飞飞618","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53765af928600e917b62ccf7c5802c50","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4188000553069702","idStr":"4188000553069702"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"地产股还是以博弈政策为主。有投资机会的比较少吧:1.贝壳(收佣金,看二手房成交量)。2.经营稳健的开发商,龙湖等。","listText":"地产股还是以博弈政策为主。有投资机会的比较少吧:1.贝壳(收佣金,看二手房成交量)。2.经营稳健的开发商,龙湖等。","text":"地产股还是以博弈政策为主。有投资机会的比较少吧:1.贝壳(收佣金,看二手房成交量)。2.经营稳健的开发商,龙湖等。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/360682655084848","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":301,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":360635968942376,"gmtCreate":1729071243275,"gmtModify":1729073906866,"author":{"id":"4188000553069702","authorId":"4188000553069702","name":"飞飞618","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53765af928600e917b62ccf7c5802c50","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4188000553069702","idStr":"4188000553069702"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/SUN.HK 20241030 3.00 CALL\">$SUN.HK 20241030 3.00 CALL$</a> 继续卖出看涨期权~","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/SUN.HK 20241030 3.00 CALL\">$SUN.HK 20241030 3.00 CALL$</a> 继续卖出看涨期权~","text":"$SUN.HK 20241030 3.00 CALL$ 继续卖出看涨期权~","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a99f3a7c8239255278af1374681d1da5","width":"981","height":"1637"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/360635968942376","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":274,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":360638169940112,"gmtCreate":1729064722958,"gmtModify":1729066868840,"author":{"id":"4188000553069702","authorId":"4188000553069702","name":"飞飞618","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53765af928600e917b62ccf7c5802c50","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4188000553069702","idStr":"4188000553069702"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/SMC.HK 20241030 33.00 CALL\">$SMC.HK 20241030 33.00 CALL$</a> 平仓,全换到卖出融创看涨期权上去。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/SMC.HK 20241030 33.00 CALL\">$SMC.HK 20241030 33.00 CALL$</a> 平仓,全换到卖出融创看涨期权上去。","text":"$SMC.HK 20241030 33.00 CALL$ 平仓,全换到卖出融创看涨期权上去。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f48fddc1fddc670c6c3006248b31391a","width":"981","height":"1637"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/360638169940112","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":163,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":360636769784064,"gmtCreate":1729064438763,"gmtModify":1729066785373,"author":{"id":"4188000553069702","authorId":"4188000553069702","name":"飞飞618","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53765af928600e917b62ccf7c5802c50","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4188000553069702","idStr":"4188000553069702"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/SUN.HK 20241030 3.00 CALL\">$SUN.HK 20241030 3.00 CALL$</a> 继续卖出…","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/SUN.HK 20241030 3.00 CALL\">$SUN.HK 20241030 3.00 CALL$</a> 继续卖出…","text":"$SUN.HK 20241030 3.00 CALL$ 继续卖出…","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f23208dd9d0268d77983d211cc59ac67","width":"981","height":"1637"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/360636769784064","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":271,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":360611000156392,"gmtCreate":1729058258391,"gmtModify":1729058259811,"author":{"id":"4188000553069702","authorId":"4188000553069702","name":"飞飞618","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53765af928600e917b62ccf7c5802c50","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4188000553069702","idStr":"4188000553069702"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> 长期第一,应该是不可能的事情,护城河比苹果微软还是弱一些。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> 长期第一,应该是不可能的事情,护城河比苹果微软还是弱一些。","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 长期第一,应该是不可能的事情,护城河比苹果微软还是弱一些。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/360611000156392","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":638,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":359974164242568,"gmtCreate":1728915994320,"gmtModify":1728972419936,"author":{"id":"4188000553069702","authorId":"4188000553069702","name":"飞飞618","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53765af928600e917b62ccf7c5802c50","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4188000553069702","authorIdStr":"4188000553069702"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"回顾这轮期权过山车之旅,还是有很多地方值得总结的: 1.对中概的贝塔不要抱有任何幻想。中概受到中国经济和政策、美联储流动性、中美关系三重影响,一有风吹草动,波动巨大,当主升浪走完之后,要迅速切回长期胜率高的美股,保住胜利果实(这次贪了一个星期导致了巨大的回撤)。主升浪是否走完可以参考港股互联网走势及政策边际变化情况。 2.选择期权,一定要关注期权的流动性。中概股的个股期权,买进去容易,退出来难,尤其是买方。如果卖出期权,做好期权到期准备,否则方向错误平仓的成本巨大。 3.方向看不清楚的情况下,慎重做期权买方,方向错误就将万劫不复。","listText":"回顾这轮期权过山车之旅,还是有很多地方值得总结的: 1.对中概的贝塔不要抱有任何幻想。中概受到中国经济和政策、美联储流动性、中美关系三重影响,一有风吹草动,波动巨大,当主升浪走完之后,要迅速切回长期胜率高的美股,保住胜利果实(这次贪了一个星期导致了巨大的回撤)。主升浪是否走完可以参考港股互联网走势及政策边际变化情况。 2.选择期权,一定要关注期权的流动性。中概股的个股期权,买进去容易,退出来难,尤其是买方。如果卖出期权,做好期权到期准备,否则方向错误平仓的成本巨大。 3.方向看不清楚的情况下,慎重做期权买方,方向错误就将万劫不复。","text":"回顾这轮期权过山车之旅,还是有很多地方值得总结的: 1.对中概的贝塔不要抱有任何幻想。中概受到中国经济和政策、美联储流动性、中美关系三重影响,一有风吹草动,波动巨大,当主升浪走完之后,要迅速切回长期胜率高的美股,保住胜利果实(这次贪了一个星期导致了巨大的回撤)。主升浪是否走完可以参考港股互联网走势及政策边际变化情况。 2.选择期权,一定要关注期权的流动性。中概股的个股期权,买进去容易,退出来难,尤其是买方。如果卖出期权,做好期权到期准备,否则方向错误平仓的成本巨大。 3.方向看不清楚的情况下,慎重做期权买方,方向错误就将万劫不复。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1c5129bd7278bc4d7ed7bd26fd3f9f8","width":"981","height":"1113"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/359974164242568","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4540,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"5400656025182","authorId":"5400656025182","name":"vision","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d67e47e5bb77491f2c37ae81c5386950","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"5400656025182","authorIdStr":"5400656025182"},"content":"这个收益有点厉害 你买了啥","text":"这个收益有点厉害 你买了啥","html":"这个收益有点厉害 你买了啥"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":363211355119848,"gmtCreate":1729699925411,"gmtModify":1729701418195,"author":{"id":"4188000553069702","authorId":"4188000553069702","name":"飞飞618","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53765af928600e917b62ccf7c5802c50","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4188000553069702","authorIdStr":"4188000553069702"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"复盘一下这轮卖出中芯、融创看涨期权的投资: 1.10.7形成思路,加上当时期权费真的很香,选择卖出看涨期权而不是买入看跌期权。形成思路到下单,十几分钟时间完成,主要矛盾太突出,常识判断即可。 2.值得反思的地方也有几点:第一,还是担心股价继续涨怎么办,没有卖出实值看涨期权,而是卖出了平值和虚值,没有充分吃到权利金。第二,小心被平仓,小心被平仓,小心被平仓,重要的事情说三遍!即使做期权卖方,仓位也不要打的太慢,上周五中芯大涨,还被动平了几手,回头看有点可惜。第三,不要裸空,即使港股个股的权利金比美股香,也不要单纯去赌方向,否则心态绝对炸裂,多空比建议不低于5:1,长期看,做多才是王道。","listText":"复盘一下这轮卖出中芯、融创看涨期权的投资: 1.10.7形成思路,加上当时期权费真的很香,选择卖出看涨期权而不是买入看跌期权。形成思路到下单,十几分钟时间完成,主要矛盾太突出,常识判断即可。 2.值得反思的地方也有几点:第一,还是担心股价继续涨怎么办,没有卖出实值看涨期权,而是卖出了平值和虚值,没有充分吃到权利金。第二,小心被平仓,小心被平仓,小心被平仓,重要的事情说三遍!即使做期权卖方,仓位也不要打的太慢,上周五中芯大涨,还被动平了几手,回头看有点可惜。第三,不要裸空,即使港股个股的权利金比美股香,也不要单纯去赌方向,否则心态绝对炸裂,多空比建议不低于5:1,长期看,做多才是王道。","text":"复盘一下这轮卖出中芯、融创看涨期权的投资: 1.10.7形成思路,加上当时期权费真的很香,选择卖出看涨期权而不是买入看跌期权。形成思路到下单,十几分钟时间完成,主要矛盾太突出,常识判断即可。 2.值得反思的地方也有几点:第一,还是担心股价继续涨怎么办,没有卖出实值看涨期权,而是卖出了平值和虚值,没有充分吃到权利金。第二,小心被平仓,小心被平仓,小心被平仓,重要的事情说三遍!即使做期权卖方,仓位也不要打的太慢,上周五中芯大涨,还被动平了几手,回头看有点可惜。第三,不要裸空,即使港股个股的权利金比美股香,也不要单纯去赌方向,否则心态绝对炸裂,多空比建议不低于5:1,长期看,做多才是王道。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d746c8d290c52e680deff511cc0e2662","width":"1206","height":"2622"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/654e2826a12747b4a6b3aa0e2f61e18e","width":"1206","height":"2622"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e50bc21f462f9bef74a97c3e53d58a31","width":"1206","height":"2622"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":19,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/363211355119848","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5845,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":360904093688048,"gmtCreate":1729136580015,"gmtModify":1729143423896,"author":{"id":"4188000553069702","authorId":"4188000553069702","name":"飞飞618","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53765af928600e917b62ccf7c5802c50","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4188000553069702","authorIdStr":"4188000553069702"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"当机会来临的时候,不要用针顶,而要用盆接。 思考:1.千万不要做空美股,胜率太低。2.可以做空港股高估值、没有基本面支撑个股,胜率比较高。3.不要裸空,多头的比例一定要高于空头,不然心态会受到影响。4.卖出期权,时间尽可能拉长。","listText":"当机会来临的时候,不要用针顶,而要用盆接。 思考:1.千万不要做空美股,胜率太低。2.可以做空港股高估值、没有基本面支撑个股,胜率比较高。3.不要裸空,多头的比例一定要高于空头,不然心态会受到影响。4.卖出期权,时间尽可能拉长。","text":"当机会来临的时候,不要用针顶,而要用盆接。 思考:1.千万不要做空美股,胜率太低。2.可以做空港股高估值、没有基本面支撑个股,胜率比较高。3.不要裸空,多头的比例一定要高于空头,不然心态会受到影响。4.卖出期权,时间尽可能拉长。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e12f36104e81f3d4de607532a804b19c","width":"981","height":"1637"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd9ecd032bc4036b0f08f4b85ed8e7b3","width":"981","height":"1637"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8846a18e8ccc1dea038e36f6d85f06cb","width":"981","height":"1637"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/360904093688048","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6139,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3527667577115702","authorId":"3527667577115702","name":"小米死多头","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c36273dc153f2f9e76fe9da987b5084","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3527667577115702","authorIdStr":"3527667577115702"},"content":"牛啊 为啥 sell call","text":"牛啊 为啥 sell call","html":"牛啊 为啥 sell call"}],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":359413939961872,"gmtCreate":1728788025749,"gmtModify":1728958249955,"author":{"id":"4188000553069702","authorId":"4188000553069702","name":"飞飞618","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53765af928600e917b62ccf7c5802c50","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4188000553069702","authorIdStr":"4188000553069702"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/SMC.HK 20241030 33.00 CALL\">$SMC.HK 20241030 33.00 CALL$</a> 10.7当时有三个想法:1.空港股的中芯。估值实在贵的离谱,a股中芯又连续涨了3个20%,短线过度透支。2.空港股的融创。对于一家底部涨5倍的破产地产公司,空是送钱的机会。3.空港股的招商证券,港股在10.7估值比a股还贵。最后因为招证没有期权而放弃。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/SMC.HK 20241030 33.00 CALL\">$SMC.HK 20241030 33.00 CALL$</a> 10.7当时有三个想法:1.空港股的中芯。估值实在贵的离谱,a股中芯又连续涨了3个20%,短线过度透支。2.空港股的融创。对于一家底部涨5倍的破产地产公司,空是送钱的机会。3.空港股的招商证券,港股在10.7估值比a股还贵。最后因为招证没有期权而放弃。","text":"$SMC.HK 20241030 33.00 CALL$ 10.7当时有三个想法:1.空港股的中芯。估值实在贵的离谱,a股中芯又连续涨了3个20%,短线过度透支。2.空港股的融创。对于一家底部涨5倍的破产地产公司,空是送钱的机会。3.空港股的招商证券,港股在10.7估值比a股还贵。最后因为招证没有期权而放弃。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7dde290580a739706767b588cb410fc0","width":"981","height":"1637"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/359413939961872","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5084,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3561599612759488","authorId":"3561599612759488","name":"跟着有肉吃","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea93e31400ba01a0fd79b574eb5cfec6","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3561599612759488","authorIdStr":"3561599612759488"},"content":"所以都错过了","text":"所以都错过了","html":"所以都错过了"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":363097416454384,"gmtCreate":1729672109756,"gmtModify":1729673497600,"author":{"id":"4188000553069702","authorId":"4188000553069702","name":"飞飞618","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53765af928600e917b62ccf7c5802c50","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4188000553069702","authorIdStr":"4188000553069702"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09992\">$泡泡玛特(09992)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 三季度业绩预告出来之后,市场对泡泡玛特更加乐观,讨论从之前的是否会涨变成了估值是否偏高。 个人认为,对于成长股投资,成长阶段不要过于关注行业竞争格局和静态估值水平,只要增速不放缓,抱团大概率都不瓦解(市场别太差),后续跟踪季报增速即可。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09992\">$泡泡玛特(09992)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 三季度业绩预告出来之后,市场对泡泡玛特更加乐观,讨论从之前的是否会涨变成了估值是否偏高。 个人认为,对于成长股投资,成长阶段不要过于关注行业竞争格局和静态估值水平,只要增速不放缓,抱团大概率都不瓦解(市场别太差),后续跟踪季报增速即可。","text":"$泡泡玛特(09992)$ 三季度业绩预告出来之后,市场对泡泡玛特更加乐观,讨论从之前的是否会涨变成了估值是否偏高。 个人认为,对于成长股投资,成长阶段不要过于关注行业竞争格局和静态估值水平,只要增速不放缓,抱团大概率都不瓦解(市场别太差),后续跟踪季报增速即可。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/363097416454384","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":8530,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"9000000000000157","authorId":"9000000000000157","name":"小狗摩天轮","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0965d3709fcccd732467fba87aa4ea6e","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"9000000000000157","authorIdStr":"9000000000000157"},"content":"同意你的观点,成长股的投资主要还是看公司的增速和前景,不需要过于担心行业竞争和估值","text":"同意你的观点,成长股的投资主要还是看公司的增速和前景,不需要过于担心行业竞争和估值","html":"同意你的观点,成长股的投资主要还是看公司的增速和前景,不需要过于担心行业竞争和估值"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":359969580429608,"gmtCreate":1728915014892,"gmtModify":1728957922193,"author":{"id":"4188000553069702","authorId":"4188000553069702","name":"飞飞618","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53765af928600e917b62ccf7c5802c50","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4188000553069702","authorIdStr":"4188000553069702"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/PDD 20241018 143.0 PUT\">$PDD 20241018 143.0 PUT$</a> 拼多多卖出看跌期权止损出局,中概主升浪大概率走完,重心要回到美股了。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/PDD 20241018 143.0 PUT\">$PDD 20241018 143.0 PUT$</a> 拼多多卖出看跌期权止损出局,中概主升浪大概率走完,重心要回到美股了。","text":"$PDD 20241018 143.0 PUT$ 拼多多卖出看跌期权止损出局,中概主升浪大概率走完,重心要回到美股了。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/271156ff9595f4175b6d25f3e9809691","width":"981","height":"1637"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/359969580429608","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5482,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3518883278973010","authorId":"3518883278973010","name":"alteppa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a41746c6c3a258c8834295d28bb27164","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3518883278973010","authorIdStr":"3518883278973010"},"content":"这......倒在大跌前","text":"这......倒在大跌前","html":"这......倒在大跌前"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":363421468876936,"gmtCreate":1729751369163,"gmtModify":1729752705162,"author":{"id":"4188000553069702","authorId":"4188000553069702","name":"飞飞618","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53765af928600e917b62ccf7c5802c50","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4188000553069702","authorIdStr":"4188000553069702"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"反思今年最大的投资失误——中国宏桥。 能想到一只翻倍的股票,我是亏钱出来的嘛……各种心塞…… 1.年初就以潮玩、互联网和资源品三条主线为全年投资机会。铝的逻辑是供给端每年4500万吨是fgw限制死的,没有更多供给冲击,只要需求端不崩,铝的竞争格局会非常好(宏桥、中铝和云铝)。 2.宏桥相比中铝云铝,弹性更大且在港股,预期差也更大,当时大家对宏桥的财务有质疑,预期差非常明显,估值也比中铝云铝低。 3.最该反思的是交易行为,犯了低点低仓位,高点高仓位的错误。一开始的时候轻仓,涨了开始加仓,贪婪暴露的一览无遗,高点回撤20%后,吃掉了所有利润。 4.总结:第一,周期股波动大,切忌追涨杀跌。第二,仓位管理很重要,要么底部重仓越涨越轻仓,要么初始仓位保持不动,最差的就是追涨杀跌。第三,周期股看价格大周期即可,不用盯着每天铝价的波动,想赚差价,到头来得不偿失。","listText":"反思今年最大的投资失误——中国宏桥。 能想到一只翻倍的股票,我是亏钱出来的嘛……各种心塞…… 1.年初就以潮玩、互联网和资源品三条主线为全年投资机会。铝的逻辑是供给端每年4500万吨是fgw限制死的,没有更多供给冲击,只要需求端不崩,铝的竞争格局会非常好(宏桥、中铝和云铝)。 2.宏桥相比中铝云铝,弹性更大且在港股,预期差也更大,当时大家对宏桥的财务有质疑,预期差非常明显,估值也比中铝云铝低。 3.最该反思的是交易行为,犯了低点低仓位,高点高仓位的错误。一开始的时候轻仓,涨了开始加仓,贪婪暴露的一览无遗,高点回撤20%后,吃掉了所有利润。 4.总结:第一,周期股波动大,切忌追涨杀跌。第二,仓位管理很重要,要么底部重仓越涨越轻仓,要么初始仓位保持不动,最差的就是追涨杀跌。第三,周期股看价格大周期即可,不用盯着每天铝价的波动,想赚差价,到头来得不偿失。","text":"反思今年最大的投资失误——中国宏桥。 能想到一只翻倍的股票,我是亏钱出来的嘛……各种心塞…… 1.年初就以潮玩、互联网和资源品三条主线为全年投资机会。铝的逻辑是供给端每年4500万吨是fgw限制死的,没有更多供给冲击,只要需求端不崩,铝的竞争格局会非常好(宏桥、中铝和云铝)。 2.宏桥相比中铝云铝,弹性更大且在港股,预期差也更大,当时大家对宏桥的财务有质疑,预期差非常明显,估值也比中铝云铝低。 3.最该反思的是交易行为,犯了低点低仓位,高点高仓位的错误。一开始的时候轻仓,涨了开始加仓,贪婪暴露的一览无遗,高点回撤20%后,吃掉了所有利润。 4.总结:第一,周期股波动大,切忌追涨杀跌。第二,仓位管理很重要,要么底部重仓越涨越轻仓,要么初始仓位保持不动,最差的就是追涨杀跌。第三,周期股看价格大周期即可,不用盯着每天铝价的波动,想赚差价,到头来得不偿失。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/958af5a3b2a18d2fba64d9f51ca56bec","width":"1206","height":"2622"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/363421468876936","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5983,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"9000000000000146","authorId":"9000000000000146","name":"提拉米苏丝","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ba92b9c59fc0bce34e05548ce24ca50","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"9000000000000146","authorIdStr":"9000000000000146"},"content":"反思是成长的一种方式,感谢你分享这次投资失误经历","text":"反思是成长的一种方式,感谢你分享这次投资失误经历","html":"反思是成长的一种方式,感谢你分享这次投资失误经历"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":360173314613520,"gmtCreate":1728964619458,"gmtModify":1728968572629,"author":{"id":"4188000553069702","authorId":"4188000553069702","name":"飞飞618","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53765af928600e917b62ccf7c5802c50","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4188000553069702","authorIdStr":"4188000553069702"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/SMC.HK 20241030 27.00 CALL\">$SMC.HK 20241030 27.00 CALL$</a> 一点思考: 1.当下市场环境:对于周六的会议,外资比内资更悲观。观察互联网龙头公司这两天的走势,对冲基金应该是在没有看到刺激消费政策、经济基本面企稳等之后选择减仓,港股作为离岸市场,比a股受到的冲击更大。 2.市场风格:回归到中期增量资金的角度,etf和险资是为数不多的增量资金(短期a股场子热,散户和公募基金流入,但趋势存疑),etf会偏大票风格,险资偏红利风格。考虑到政策持续出台,成交量放大,主题概念题材也会轮番表现,但把握难度太大。 持仓方向:有基本面支撑、景气度稳定的大公司,偏红利风格的公司。 3.思考做空(对冲)的逻辑:找估值明显偏贵,短期市场关注度、成交量非常活跃的公司。一方面,估值长期向下提供了做空的确定性;另一方面,题材概念的轮动,使得个股会出现阶段性脉冲上涨,期权费也会上升。因此,通过卖出看涨期权的方式,获取权利金,是比较稳妥的选择(当然多头也得有标的,不能裸空)。 每上涨一定的百分比,加仓卖出看涨期权即可。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/SMC.HK 20241030 27.00 CALL\">$SMC.HK 20241030 27.00 CALL$</a> 一点思考: 1.当下市场环境:对于周六的会议,外资比内资更悲观。观察互联网龙头公司这两天的走势,对冲基金应该是在没有看到刺激消费政策、经济基本面企稳等之后选择减仓,港股作为离岸市场,比a股受到的冲击更大。 2.市场风格:回归到中期增量资金的角度,etf和险资是为数不多的增量资金(短期a股场子热,散户和公募基金流入,但趋势存疑),etf会偏大票风格,险资偏红利风格。考虑到政策持续出台,成交量放大,主题概念题材也会轮番表现,但把握难度太大。 持仓方向:有基本面支撑、景气度稳定的大公司,偏红利风格的公司。 3.思考做空(对冲)的逻辑:找估值明显偏贵,短期市场关注度、成交量非常活跃的公司。一方面,估值长期向下提供了做空的确定性;另一方面,题材概念的轮动,使得个股会出现阶段性脉冲上涨,期权费也会上升。因此,通过卖出看涨期权的方式,获取权利金,是比较稳妥的选择(当然多头也得有标的,不能裸空)。 每上涨一定的百分比,加仓卖出看涨期权即可。","text":"$SMC.HK 20241030 27.00 CALL$ 一点思考: 1.当下市场环境:对于周六的会议,外资比内资更悲观。观察互联网龙头公司这两天的走势,对冲基金应该是在没有看到刺激消费政策、经济基本面企稳等之后选择减仓,港股作为离岸市场,比a股受到的冲击更大。 2.市场风格:回归到中期增量资金的角度,etf和险资是为数不多的增量资金(短期a股场子热,散户和公募基金流入,但趋势存疑),etf会偏大票风格,险资偏红利风格。考虑到政策持续出台,成交量放大,主题概念题材也会轮番表现,但把握难度太大。 持仓方向:有基本面支撑、景气度稳定的大公司,偏红利风格的公司。 3.思考做空(对冲)的逻辑:找估值明显偏贵,短期市场关注度、成交量非常活跃的公司。一方面,估值长期向下提供了做空的确定性;另一方面,题材概念的轮动,使得个股会出现阶段性脉冲上涨,期权费也会上升。因此,通过卖出看涨期权的方式,获取权利金,是比较稳妥的选择(当然多头也得有标的,不能裸空)。 每上涨一定的百分比,加仓卖出看涨期权即可。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a57d392c467e17d28e2ea841ace6693","width":"981","height":"1637"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/360173314613520","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6752,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":359970882379800,"gmtCreate":1728915312547,"gmtModify":1728958225799,"author":{"id":"4188000553069702","authorId":"4188000553069702","name":"飞飞618","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53765af928600e917b62ccf7c5802c50","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4188000553069702","authorIdStr":"4188000553069702"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MSFT 20241018 420.0 PUT\">$MSFT 20241018 420.0 PUT$</a> 美股做个对冲,多微软、mate,空特斯拉。 想想中概最近的亏损,肉疼😣…","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MSFT 20241018 420.0 PUT\">$MSFT 20241018 420.0 PUT$</a> 美股做个对冲,多微软、mate,空特斯拉。 想想中概最近的亏损,肉疼😣…","text":"$MSFT 20241018 420.0 PUT$ 美股做个对冲,多微软、mate,空特斯拉。 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目前卖出中芯国际的看涨期权略有浮亏(第一波卖出盈利,第二波亏损),后续会拉长时间继续开仓,吃权利金。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/362338032771160","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":710,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":359956642660640,"gmtCreate":1728888096817,"gmtModify":1728888100160,"author":{"id":"4188000553069702","authorId":"4188000553069702","name":"飞飞618","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53765af928600e917b62ccf7c5802c50","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4188000553069702","authorIdStr":"4188000553069702"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"1.投资美股一定要和投资a股、港股区分开,不能轻易做空。美股的胜率接近70%,a股的胜率不到50%,两者有本质区别。 2.美股的核心是全球最优秀的公司,经济总是在曲折中前进的,长期持有的胜率会高于择时。 3.美股牛长熊短,下跌短而急促。保持仓位不动,大幅下跌时加仓可能是胜率更高的选择。","listText":"1.投资美股一定要和投资a股、港股区分开,不能轻易做空。美股的胜率接近70%,a股的胜率不到50%,两者有本质区别。 2.美股的核心是全球最优秀的公司,经济总是在曲折中前进的,长期持有的胜率会高于择时。 3.美股牛长熊短,下跌短而急促。保持仓位不动,大幅下跌时加仓可能是胜率更高的选择。","text":"1.投资美股一定要和投资a股、港股区分开,不能轻易做空。美股的胜率接近70%,a股的胜率不到50%,两者有本质区别。 2.美股的核心是全球最优秀的公司,经济总是在曲折中前进的,长期持有的胜率会高于择时。 3.美股牛长熊短,下跌短而急促。保持仓位不动,大幅下跌时加仓可能是胜率更高的选择。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/359956642660640","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":369,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":359547433709840,"gmtCreate":1728788168161,"gmtModify":1728792826514,"author":{"id":"4188000553069702","authorId":"4188000553069702","name":"飞飞618","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53765af928600e917b62ccf7c5802c50","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4188000553069702","authorIdStr":"4188000553069702"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/PDD 20241018 145.0 PUT\">$PDD 20241018 145.0 PUT$</a> 作为中概的龙头,调整一波之后用卖出看跌期权表达观点~","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/PDD 20241018 145.0 PUT\">$PDD 20241018 145.0 PUT$</a> 作为中概的龙头,调整一波之后用卖出看跌期权表达观点~","text":"$PDD 20241018 145.0 PUT$ 作为中概的龙头,调整一波之后用卖出看跌期权表达观点~","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a72d8cc24e8bf6daaa42c60b86a0d66","width":"981","height":"1637"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/359547433709840","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":141,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}