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ifeng
11-01
$英特尔(INTC)$
短期看多吧,但是长期来看,Intel自家制程还是不如台积电远矣。Intel的芯片制造甚至就是Intel的主要拖累来源
ifeng
10-31
$英特尔(INTC)$
没事儿,等10美金以下再看
ifeng
10-09
政策没有持续性,空头长期完胜
ifeng
10-08
暴涨带来的必然是后续的暴跌
ifeng
10-08
港股暴跌已经开始了[笑哭]
ifeng
09-27
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
早该跌了吧
ifeng
09-24
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
涨的差不多了,快回调了
ifeng
09-18
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
降息明确后,跌的概率较大
ifeng
09-11
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
隔壁标普,道琼斯已经先走一步了。
ifeng
09-06
等日本那边的消息,日本方面的政策对短期美股涨跌影响很大的
ifeng
09-06
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
非农只是小意思,就看日本那只黑天鹅什么时候来了。这才是,达摩克利斯之剑。
ifeng
09-03
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
日本加息预期拉满
ifeng
08-30
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
降息前肯定会回调的
ifeng
08-30
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
到处是估值过高的标的
ifeng
08-29
$英伟达(NVDA)$
AI产业链的迅速盈利哪可能这么快实现,市场也未免太天真。
ifeng
08-29
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
英伟达这波悬
ifeng
08-23
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
今晚后半场估计危险
ifeng
08-22
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
危险临近,先撤一部分
ifeng
08-19
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
8月16日,野村国际观察到,不同类型的投资者开始重新抛售日元,将资金转移到其他高收益资产中。这表明曾经热衷于套利交易的企业客户和对冲基金正在重新进入市场。根据ATFX Global Markets的数据,过去一周内,日元空头仓位增加了约30%至40%,主要来自对冲基金和高净值投资者。野村驻伦敦G-10货币现货交易主管Antony Foster透露,多个账户正在卖出日元,转而买入澳元和英镑。 随着日元升值,这类交易是否会发生反转,是否会有别的突发事件引发更多的踩踏?
ifeng
08-12
猴儿市来了
市场巨震预警拉响!美国CPI势将引爆大行情
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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没事儿,等10美金以下再看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/365741407088936","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1197,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":358063233864072,"gmtCreate":1728454495026,"gmtModify":1728454497323,"author":{"id":"4167636942774862","authorId":"4167636942774862","name":"ifeng","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4167636942774862","authorIdStr":"4167636942774862"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"政策没有持续性,空头长期完胜","listText":"政策没有持续性,空头长期完胜","text":"政策没有持续性,空头长期完胜","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/358063233864072","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":348,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":357808655745192,"gmtCreate":1728374385632,"gmtModify":1728374387456,"author":{"id":"4167636942774862","authorId":"4167636942774862","name":"ifeng","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4167636942774862","authorIdStr":"4167636942774862"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"暴涨带来的必然是后续的暴跌","listText":"暴涨带来的必然是后续的暴跌","text":"暴涨带来的必然是后续的暴跌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/357808655745192","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":304,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":357805081743520,"gmtCreate":1728373441916,"gmtModify":1728373444524,"author":{"id":"4167636942774862","authorId":"4167636942774862","name":"ifeng","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4167636942774862","authorIdStr":"4167636942774862"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"港股暴跌已经开始了[笑哭] ","listText":"港股暴跌已经开始了[笑哭] ","text":"港股暴跌已经开始了[笑哭]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/357805081743520","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":338,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":353624669991040,"gmtCreate":1727372208749,"gmtModify":1727372210080,"author":{"id":"4167636942774862","authorId":"4167636942774862","name":"ifeng","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4167636942774862","authorIdStr":"4167636942774862"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 早该跌了吧","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 早该跌了吧","text":"$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ 早该跌了吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/353624669991040","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":409,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":352954150453336,"gmtCreate":1727179283899,"gmtModify":1727179285353,"author":{"id":"4167636942774862","authorId":"4167636942774862","name":"ifeng","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4167636942774862","authorIdStr":"4167636942774862"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 涨的差不多了,快回调了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 涨的差不多了,快回调了","text":"$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ 涨的差不多了,快回调了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/352954150453336","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":318,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":350610484686976,"gmtCreate":1726626235888,"gmtModify":1726626237066,"author":{"id":"4167636942774862","authorId":"4167636942774862","name":"ifeng","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4167636942774862","authorIdStr":"4167636942774862"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 降息明确后,跌的概率较大","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 降息明确后,跌的概率较大","text":"$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ 降息明确后,跌的概率较大","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/350610484686976","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1264,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":348247719977304,"gmtCreate":1726062398488,"gmtModify":1726063565567,"author":{"id":"4167636942774862","authorId":"4167636942774862","name":"ifeng","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4167636942774862","authorIdStr":"4167636942774862"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 隔壁标普,道琼斯已经先走一步了。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 隔壁标普,道琼斯已经先走一步了。","text":"$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ 隔壁标普,道琼斯已经先走一步了。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/348247719977304","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":540,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":346394483355736,"gmtCreate":1725612333411,"gmtModify":1725612335780,"author":{"id":"4167636942774862","authorId":"4167636942774862","name":"ifeng","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4167636942774862","authorIdStr":"4167636942774862"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"等日本那边的消息,日本方面的政策对短期美股涨跌影响很大的","listText":"等日本那边的消息,日本方面的政策对短期美股涨跌影响很大的","text":"等日本那边的消息,日本方面的政策对短期美股涨跌影响很大的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/346394483355736","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":449,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":346416309322024,"gmtCreate":1725611557789,"gmtModify":1725611559170,"author":{"id":"4167636942774862","authorId":"4167636942774862","name":"ifeng","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4167636942774862","authorIdStr":"4167636942774862"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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随着日元升值,这类交易是否会发生反转,是否会有别的突发事件引发更多的踩踏?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/340025319215320","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":909,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":337738960322608,"gmtCreate":1723476360497,"gmtModify":1723476362641,"author":{"id":"4167636942774862","authorId":"4167636942774862","name":"ifeng","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4167636942774862","authorIdStr":"4167636942774862"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"猴儿市来了","listText":"猴儿市来了","text":"猴儿市来了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/337738960322608","repostId":"2458282610","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2458282610","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1723440624,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2458282610?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-08-12 13:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"市场巨震预警拉响!美国CPI势将引爆大行情","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2458282610","media":"金十数据","summary":"上周的“过山车”式行情还历历在目,交易员本周准备迎接更大的波动......","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>上周的“过山车”式行情还历历在目,交易员本周准备迎接更大的波动......</p></blockquote><p>华尔街令人难忘的夏季即将迎来高潮,所有人的目光都投向本周美国的消费者价格指数(CPI)报告,交易员希望这将为美联储提供必要的弹药,以便在9月份的下次会议上开始降息。</p><p>就目前而言,他们押注的是更大的波动性。</p><p>上周市场的一些剧烈波动使衡量标普500指数(SPX)价格波动幅度的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CBOE\">芝加哥期权交易所</a>波动率指数(VIX)达到了自2020年疫情高峰期以来的最高水平。花旗集团的数据显示,根据看跌—看涨平价(Put-Call Parity),<strong>交易员预计<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>指数将在周三CPI数据公布时在任一方向上波动1.2%。</strong></p><p>注:Put-Call Parity,是指在无套利条件下,相同标的资产、相同到期日、相同执行价格的看涨期权和看跌期权之间存在一个确定的价格关系。</p><p>如果这一定价在周二收盘前保持不变,那么它将<strong>大致与8月23日美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔经济研讨会上发表讲话以及8月29日<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>(NVDA)发布财报后的市场隐含走势一致</strong>。</p><p>衍生品分析公司Asym 500的创始人Rocky Fishman表示,“期权市场尚未向股市发出解除警报的信号。从历史上看,波动性高的时候是买入股票的好时机,但在某种程度上,这种情况已经发生了,因此CPI将是一个重要的催化剂。”</p><p>此外,尽管标普500指数上周基本抹去早些时候的跌幅,但期权专家并不完全相信这种复苏。美股的暴跌发生在大规模的以日元为融资货币的套利交易平仓之际,后者扰乱了全球债券市场。</p><h2 id=\"id_3670272957\">防范股市下跌的成本更高</h2><p>彭博汇编的数据显示,<strong>追踪大盘指数的最大交易所交易基金(ETF)——SPDR S&P 500 ETF信托(SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust,简称SPY)防范未来30天下跌10%的合约价格约为去年10月以来的最高水平,是防范上涨10%的合约价格的两倍。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c26d27224bf51ef5b9d46d45442893b7\" alt=\"防范SPY未来30天下跌10%的合约价格约为去年10月以来的最高水平\" title=\"防范SPY未来30天下跌10%的合约价格约为去年10月以来的最高水平\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"443\"/><span>防范SPY未来30天下跌10%的合约价格约为去年10月以来的最高水平</span></p><p>考虑到鲍威尔可能很快会在杰克逊霍尔经济研讨会上制定降息计划,交易员们质疑市场在他讲话时的走势是否会比通胀数据公布后更高。</p><p>本月晚些时候鲍威尔的讯息可能会帮助投资者预测未来一年会有多少次降息,此前他在7月底暗示政策制定者可能会在9月会议上降低借贷成本。</p><p>德克萨斯州奥斯汀市Sage Advisory的联席投资总监兼董事总经理托马斯·乌拉诺说:“我们正处于一个拐点,此前被视为经济方面的坏消息被视为好消息,因为这将促使美联储改变政策。然而,如果数据继续疲软,股票投资者将感到失望,并导致股市出现更大波动。”</p><p>话虽如此,美国基准的10年期国债收益率已回到最新就业报告公布前的水平,收复了因失业率连续第四个月上升引发经济衰退担忧而导致的失地。</p><p>事实上,<strong>劳动力市场数据,包括8月份的就业报告,将对交易员至关重要,就像通胀数据一样</strong>。美联储官员越来越强调他们对充分就业的使命。上个月失业率上升至4.3%,远高于美联储对年底失业率的预测。</p><p>美联储旧金山联储主席戴利在8月5日表示:“劳动力市场正在放缓,非常重要的一点是我们不能让它放缓到陷入衰退的程度。”</p><h2 id=\"id_2411241457\">“更多痛苦和波动”</h2><p>美国2年期和10年期国债收益率之间的差距在上周早些时候首次恢复正常,这种情况在过去四次经济衰退之前也曾出现过。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f43339161d67c016ab6d88273ec3433c\" alt=\"2年期-10年美债收益率曲线短暂恢复正常\" title=\"2年期-10年美债收益率曲线短暂恢复正常\" tg-width=\"778\" tg-height=\"440\"/><span>2年期-10年美债收益率曲线短暂恢复正常</span></p><p>随着焦虑情绪的消退,美债收益率曲线的关键部分再次出现倒挂。但实际上,自疫情扰乱了正常的商业活动以来,这个经济衰退的可靠信号并没有得到验证。</p><p>固定收益基金管理公司SageAdvisory联席首席投资官ThomasUrano补充称:“所有在资本市场积累、然后通过私人信贷分配进行配置的量化宽松资金,减弱了收益率曲线倒挂的影响,但这并不意味着它的概念是无用的。只是<strong>现在需要更长的时间来显现</strong>。”</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>跨资产策略主管萨洛佩克(Thomas Salopek)说,在股市方面,对增长风险的担忧挥之不去,已导致动量交易和防御性领导地位的逆转。他预计<strong>未来股市将出现更多痛苦和大幅波动。</strong>根据彭博汇编的数据,标普500指数在过去10个交易日内的单日平均波动峰值为2%,这是自2022年11月以来的最高水平。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8dfe87b59549242e04be8e2b626d35d\" alt=\"标普500指数在过去10天的单日平均峰值波动超过2%\" title=\"标普500指数在过去10天的单日平均峰值波动超过2%\" tg-width=\"843\" tg-height=\"519\"/><span>标普500指数在过去10天的单日平均峰值波动超过2%</span></p><p>这就解释了为什么交易员们期待着周三的通胀报告会带来重大波动。经济学家们预计,剔除波动较大的食品和能源成分的核心CPI数据预计将环比上升0.2%,同比上涨3.2%,进一步接近美联储的2%目标。</p><p>如果读数明显偏高或偏低,交易员很可能会重新调整他们的预期,这可能会引发另一轮市场混乱。</p><p>“如果美联储因为经济放缓而大幅降息,从历史上看,这对股票回报不利,”埃文斯·梅财富公司(Evans May Wealth)的管理合伙人<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRKR\">布鲁克</a>·梅(Brooke May)说。他的公司正在抢购大型科技股。“但经济并不像人们想象的那么糟糕。我预计未来几周股市将出现更多波动,如果出现更多下跌,我也不会感到意外。”</p></body></html>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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}\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n市场巨震预警拉响!美国CPI势将引爆大行情\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-08-12 13:30 北京时间 <a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=145562&type=news&data_type=0><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>上周的“过山车”式行情还历历在目,交易员本周准备迎接更大的波动......华尔街令人难忘的夏季即将迎来高潮,所有人的目光都投向本周美国的消费者价格指数(CPI)报告,交易员希望这将为美联储提供必要的弹药,以便在9月份的下次会议上开始降息。就目前而言,他们押注的是更大的波动性。上周市场的一些剧烈波动使衡量标普500指数(SPX)价格波动幅度的芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数(VIX)达到了自2020年疫情...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=145562&type=news&data_type=0\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd680cd945fd32917c8ece66ec685e5f","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=145562&type=news&data_type=0","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2458282610","content_text":"上周的“过山车”式行情还历历在目,交易员本周准备迎接更大的波动......华尔街令人难忘的夏季即将迎来高潮,所有人的目光都投向本周美国的消费者价格指数(CPI)报告,交易员希望这将为美联储提供必要的弹药,以便在9月份的下次会议上开始降息。就目前而言,他们押注的是更大的波动性。上周市场的一些剧烈波动使衡量标普500指数(SPX)价格波动幅度的芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数(VIX)达到了自2020年疫情高峰期以来的最高水平。花旗集团的数据显示,根据看跌—看涨平价(Put-Call Parity),交易员预计标普500指数将在周三CPI数据公布时在任一方向上波动1.2%。注:Put-Call Parity,是指在无套利条件下,相同标的资产、相同到期日、相同执行价格的看涨期权和看跌期权之间存在一个确定的价格关系。如果这一定价在周二收盘前保持不变,那么它将大致与8月23日美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔经济研讨会上发表讲话以及8月29日英伟达(NVDA)发布财报后的市场隐含走势一致。衍生品分析公司Asym 500的创始人Rocky Fishman表示,“期权市场尚未向股市发出解除警报的信号。从历史上看,波动性高的时候是买入股票的好时机,但在某种程度上,这种情况已经发生了,因此CPI将是一个重要的催化剂。”此外,尽管标普500指数上周基本抹去早些时候的跌幅,但期权专家并不完全相信这种复苏。美股的暴跌发生在大规模的以日元为融资货币的套利交易平仓之际,后者扰乱了全球债券市场。防范股市下跌的成本更高彭博汇编的数据显示,追踪大盘指数的最大交易所交易基金(ETF)——SPDR S&P 500 ETF信托(SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust,简称SPY)防范未来30天下跌10%的合约价格约为去年10月以来的最高水平,是防范上涨10%的合约价格的两倍。防范SPY未来30天下跌10%的合约价格约为去年10月以来的最高水平考虑到鲍威尔可能很快会在杰克逊霍尔经济研讨会上制定降息计划,交易员们质疑市场在他讲话时的走势是否会比通胀数据公布后更高。本月晚些时候鲍威尔的讯息可能会帮助投资者预测未来一年会有多少次降息,此前他在7月底暗示政策制定者可能会在9月会议上降低借贷成本。德克萨斯州奥斯汀市Sage Advisory的联席投资总监兼董事总经理托马斯·乌拉诺说:“我们正处于一个拐点,此前被视为经济方面的坏消息被视为好消息,因为这将促使美联储改变政策。然而,如果数据继续疲软,股票投资者将感到失望,并导致股市出现更大波动。”话虽如此,美国基准的10年期国债收益率已回到最新就业报告公布前的水平,收复了因失业率连续第四个月上升引发经济衰退担忧而导致的失地。事实上,劳动力市场数据,包括8月份的就业报告,将对交易员至关重要,就像通胀数据一样。美联储官员越来越强调他们对充分就业的使命。上个月失业率上升至4.3%,远高于美联储对年底失业率的预测。美联储旧金山联储主席戴利在8月5日表示:“劳动力市场正在放缓,非常重要的一点是我们不能让它放缓到陷入衰退的程度。”“更多痛苦和波动”美国2年期和10年期国债收益率之间的差距在上周早些时候首次恢复正常,这种情况在过去四次经济衰退之前也曾出现过。2年期-10年美债收益率曲线短暂恢复正常随着焦虑情绪的消退,美债收益率曲线的关键部分再次出现倒挂。但实际上,自疫情扰乱了正常的商业活动以来,这个经济衰退的可靠信号并没有得到验证。固定收益基金管理公司SageAdvisory联席首席投资官ThomasUrano补充称:“所有在资本市场积累、然后通过私人信贷分配进行配置的量化宽松资金,减弱了收益率曲线倒挂的影响,但这并不意味着它的概念是无用的。只是现在需要更长的时间来显现。”摩根大通跨资产策略主管萨洛佩克(Thomas Salopek)说,在股市方面,对增长风险的担忧挥之不去,已导致动量交易和防御性领导地位的逆转。他预计未来股市将出现更多痛苦和大幅波动。根据彭博汇编的数据,标普500指数在过去10个交易日内的单日平均波动峰值为2%,这是自2022年11月以来的最高水平。标普500指数在过去10天的单日平均峰值波动超过2%这就解释了为什么交易员们期待着周三的通胀报告会带来重大波动。经济学家们预计,剔除波动较大的食品和能源成分的核心CPI数据预计将环比上升0.2%,同比上涨3.2%,进一步接近美联储的2%目标。如果读数明显偏高或偏低,交易员很可能会重新调整他们的预期,这可能会引发另一轮市场混乱。“如果美联储因为经济放缓而大幅降息,从历史上看,这对股票回报不利,”埃文斯·梅财富公司(Evans May Wealth)的管理合伙人布鲁克·梅(Brooke May)说。他的公司正在抢购大型科技股。“但经济并不像人们想象的那么糟糕。我预计未来几周股市将出现更多波动,如果出现更多下跌,我也不会感到意外。”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":447,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":329215774945424,"gmtCreate":1721379244719,"gmtModify":1721379245999,"author":{"id":"4167636942774862","authorId":"4167636942774862","name":"ifeng","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4167636942774862","authorIdStr":"4167636942774862"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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等mu再跌多一点进[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/321363229356376","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1473,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":366039287603496,"gmtCreate":1730406699045,"gmtModify":1730406700750,"author":{"id":"4167636942774862","authorId":"4167636942774862","name":"ifeng","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4167636942774862","authorIdStr":"4167636942774862"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">$英特尔(INTC)$ </a> 短期看多吧,但是长期来看,Intel自家制程还是不如台积电远矣。Intel的芯片制造甚至就是Intel的主要拖累来源","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">$英特尔(INTC)$ </a> 短期看多吧,但是长期来看,Intel自家制程还是不如台积电远矣。Intel的芯片制造甚至就是Intel的主要拖累来源","text":"$英特尔(INTC)$ 短期看多吧,但是长期来看,Intel自家制程还是不如台积电远矣。Intel的芯片制造甚至就是Intel的主要拖累来源","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/366039287603496","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2221,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":343514254823512,"gmtCreate":1724894893393,"gmtModify":1724894894922,"author":{"id":"4167636942774862","authorId":"4167636942774862","name":"ifeng","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4167636942774862","authorIdStr":"4167636942774862"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> AI产业链的迅速盈利哪可能这么快实现,市场也未免太天真。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> AI产业链的迅速盈利哪可能这么快实现,市场也未免太天真。","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ AI产业链的迅速盈利哪可能这么快实现,市场也未免太天真。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/343514254823512","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":353,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":333848408285424,"gmtCreate":1722539037014,"gmtModify":1722539039299,"author":{"id":"4167636942774862","authorId":"4167636942774862","name":"ifeng","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4167636942774862","authorIdStr":"4167636942774862"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"只要降息没真的落实下来,就还有做空的余地","listText":"只要降息没真的落实下来,就还有做空的余地","text":"只要降息没真的落实下来,就还有做空的余地","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/333848408285424","repostId":"2456115684","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2456115684","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1722473123,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2456115684?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-08-01 08:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"两年来最好的“美联储日”,9月降息真稳了吗?华尔街重磅解读","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2456115684","media":"金十数据","summary":"美联储决议大转变为9月降息铺路,市场创下两年来最好的“美联储日”表现,但美联储或许并未亮出所有底牌。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>美联储决议大转变为9月降息铺路,市场创下两年来最好的“美联储日”表现,但美联储或许并未亮出所有底牌。</p></blockquote><p>鲍威尔的鸽派言论帮助股市延续了以主要科技公司大涨为开端的涨势,<strong>市场创下了两年来最好的“美联储日”</strong>。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ea0b78b3c5bb2e27a3d5ca11f39431b\" tg-width=\"1139\" tg-height=\"637\"/></p><p>美国股市周三强劲反弹,纳斯达克100指数上涨3%。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>大涨13%,市值增加了创纪录的3290亿美元,此前分析师发表看涨观点。在尾盘交易中,Meta因销售业绩飙升。全球最大的智能手机处理器销售商高通公司给出了强劲的收入预期。美国国债收益率与美元一同下滑,美国国债连续第三个月上涨,这是自2021年以来最长的上涨周期。彭博“七巨头”(Magnificent Seven)指数上涨3.5%。小型公司罗素2000指数上涨0.5%。黄金飙升至历史最高月度收盘水平。虽然原油在本月整体表现不佳,但由于中东紧张局势再次升级,原油也出现了大幅反弹。</p><p>鲍威尔在新闻发布会上表示,官员们“最快”可能在9月降息,而美联储的声明也带来了不少措辞上的调整。值得注意的是,委员会转而表示“关注其双重任务两方面的风险”,而不是之前只关注通胀的措辞。</p><p>文艺复兴宏观研究公司(Renaissance Macro Research)的尼尔-杜塔(Neil Dutta)说:“<strong>鲍威尔的新闻发布会比FOMC的声明更鸽派</strong>。听起来他们肯定只是为了等待而等待。毕竟,他自己也承认,所有数据都已经指向了他希望看到的方向!有了这样的措辞,意味着美联储将不得不在9月份做出更明显的措辞转变。我感到惊讶的是,股市在这一声明中表现坚挺。今天会议的纪要以及8月份的杰克逊霍尔央行会议将提供更多机会。”</p><p>“<strong>鲍威尔越来越擅长不亮出所有底牌</strong>,”独立顾问联盟(Independent Advisor Alliance)的克里斯-扎卡雷利(Chris Zaccarelli)说。“归根结底,市场寄希望于9月份开始的降息周期,尽管鲍威尔曾多次试图让美联储的选择保持开放。”</p><p>美联储声明中的变化巩固了包括鲍威尔在内的几位政策制定者的<strong>基调转变</strong>,即认识到劳动力市场面临的风险越来越大。这些变化还可能加强经济学家和投资者对9月降息的预期。</p><p>“鲍威尔今天很想说‘我们开始吧’,但同时他也知道,在获得更多时间和数据之前,他还不必做出承诺,”《博克报告》(Boock Report)的彼得-博克瓦尔(Peter Boockvar)说。</p><p>在Lazard的Ronald Temple看来,美联储“已经明确发出了”9月份降息的信号。他指出:“虽然我认为通胀放缓、劳动力市场紧张状况缓解以及经济增长放缓是7月份降息的正当理由,但我认为7周后降息的理由将更加充分。”</p><p><strong>掉期交易商仍然完全预计9月份将降息25个基点,全年总计降息近70个基点。</strong></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601099\">太平洋</a>投资管理公司(PIMCO)的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIF\">蒂芙尼</a>-怀尔丁(Tiffany Wilding)说,鉴于市场已经完全为9月降息定价,美联储的声明和鲍威尔的讲话都没有显著改变债券市场的利率走势。</p><p>“数据已经朝着鲍威尔的方向发展,现在他正准备跟进,”TradeStation的大卫-拉塞尔(David Russell)说。“<strong>周五的非农就业数据和两周后的CPI是下一个重要项目</strong>。如果这些数据进展顺利,鲍威尔可能会在8月底的杰克逊霍尔央行年度会议上发出更明确的信息。”</p><p><em>以下是华尔街一些评论员和策略师对美联储最新决议的更多看法:</em></p><p><strong>瑞银交易员Leo He:</strong></p><p>“这份声明无疑比6月份的声明更加鸽派,因为美联储表示他们现在正专注于双重任务。但<strong>这绝对不是完全的转向</strong>。由于梅斯特退休,最鸽派的FOMC委员古尔斯比在本次会议上作为候补委员投票。贝丝-哈马克(Beth M. Hammack)将于本月晚些时候就任克利夫兰联储主席一职,并可能从9月份起接替投票人的角色。”</p><p><strong>LH Meyer/Monetary Policy Analytics经济学家Derek Tang:</strong></p><p>“声明相当平衡,很好地捕捉到了通胀和实际情况的缓和,同时也没有助长11月降息的势头。如果没有什么能阻止他们的行动,9月份的宽松政策应该还是可行的。”</p><p><strong>彭博智库首席利率策略师Ira Jersey:</strong></p><p>“总体而言,美联储的政策声明似乎符合我们的预期,因为它是平衡的。<strong>新措辞并不意味着9月份的降息迫在眉睫</strong>。曲线前端的抛售似乎是合理的。鲍威尔的新闻发布会可能比声明中的渐进变化更能说明问题。”</p><p><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DWS.AU\">DWS</a>美洲固定收益部主管George Catrambone:</strong></p><p>“风险更具有两面性了。他们将能获得更多数据来确认通胀下降的路径,但等待太久无法实现软着陆。”</p><p><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>经济学家Ellen Zentner:</strong></p><p>“FOMC声明对通胀和劳动力市场的描述发生了重要变化,强调了双重任务的风险。对劳动力市场降温的强调是向更加平衡的基调的重要转变,我们认为<strong>这为美联储在9月份进行降息做好了准备</strong>。”</p><p><strong>彭博经济首席经济学家Anna Wong:</strong></p><p>“政策声明中包含的红线极少,但却向投资者传递了大量信息:官员们肯定还没准备好在7月份降息,也不想让投资者放心地认为9月份一定会降息25个基点,更不用说市场最近考虑的降息50个基点了。新声明保留了委员会在对通胀下降轨迹增强信心之前预计不宜降息的措辞,这是<strong>鹰派之举</strong>。不过,通过承认近期失业率的上升,并补充说他们现在同样关注其双重任务中的充分就业部分,FOMC确实保留了9月份降息的希望。我们认为,他们<strong>对即将降息仅发出最低限度暗示</strong>的主要原因是,9月FOMC会议之前还有大量数据要发布——还有两份通胀和就业报告,届时数据可能会发生很大变化。鲍威尔将于8月底在杰克逊霍尔发表讲话,届时他又将掌握一个月的就业和通胀数据,这将是明确表示9月份降息的最佳时机。”</p><p><strong>美国银行经济学家</strong> <strong>Michael Gapen:</strong></p><p>“我认为这是正确的渐进举措。我认为美联储觉得它现在正处于一个甜蜜点,数据正朝着它的方向发展,所以它正在接近。它只需要再多一点点,然后那种模糊的信心可能就会出现。”</p><p><strong>惠誉评级公司首席经济学家Brian Coulton:</strong></p><p>“随着美联储准备在9月份开启降息之门,钥匙开始缓慢转动。”</p></body></html>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n两年来最好的“美联储日”,9月降息真稳了吗?华尔街重磅解读\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-08-01 08:45 北京时间 <a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=144707&type=news&data_type=0><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美联储决议大转变为9月降息铺路,市场创下两年来最好的“美联储日”表现,但美联储或许并未亮出所有底牌。鲍威尔的鸽派言论帮助股市延续了以主要科技公司大涨为开端的涨势,市场创下了两年来最好的“美联储日”。美国股市周三强劲反弹,纳斯达克100指数上涨3%。英伟达大涨13%,市值增加了创纪录的3290亿美元,此前分析师发表看涨观点。在尾盘交易中,Meta因销售业绩飙升。全球最大的智能手机处理器销售商高通公司...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=144707&type=news&data_type=0\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56e5f4e626027d04357b8f91b7b6b2d4","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=144707&type=news&data_type=0","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2456115684","content_text":"美联储决议大转变为9月降息铺路,市场创下两年来最好的“美联储日”表现,但美联储或许并未亮出所有底牌。鲍威尔的鸽派言论帮助股市延续了以主要科技公司大涨为开端的涨势,市场创下了两年来最好的“美联储日”。美国股市周三强劲反弹,纳斯达克100指数上涨3%。英伟达大涨13%,市值增加了创纪录的3290亿美元,此前分析师发表看涨观点。在尾盘交易中,Meta因销售业绩飙升。全球最大的智能手机处理器销售商高通公司给出了强劲的收入预期。美国国债收益率与美元一同下滑,美国国债连续第三个月上涨,这是自2021年以来最长的上涨周期。彭博“七巨头”(Magnificent Seven)指数上涨3.5%。小型公司罗素2000指数上涨0.5%。黄金飙升至历史最高月度收盘水平。虽然原油在本月整体表现不佳,但由于中东紧张局势再次升级,原油也出现了大幅反弹。鲍威尔在新闻发布会上表示,官员们“最快”可能在9月降息,而美联储的声明也带来了不少措辞上的调整。值得注意的是,委员会转而表示“关注其双重任务两方面的风险”,而不是之前只关注通胀的措辞。文艺复兴宏观研究公司(Renaissance Macro Research)的尼尔-杜塔(Neil Dutta)说:“鲍威尔的新闻发布会比FOMC的声明更鸽派。听起来他们肯定只是为了等待而等待。毕竟,他自己也承认,所有数据都已经指向了他希望看到的方向!有了这样的措辞,意味着美联储将不得不在9月份做出更明显的措辞转变。我感到惊讶的是,股市在这一声明中表现坚挺。今天会议的纪要以及8月份的杰克逊霍尔央行会议将提供更多机会。”“鲍威尔越来越擅长不亮出所有底牌,”独立顾问联盟(Independent Advisor Alliance)的克里斯-扎卡雷利(Chris Zaccarelli)说。“归根结底,市场寄希望于9月份开始的降息周期,尽管鲍威尔曾多次试图让美联储的选择保持开放。”美联储声明中的变化巩固了包括鲍威尔在内的几位政策制定者的基调转变,即认识到劳动力市场面临的风险越来越大。这些变化还可能加强经济学家和投资者对9月降息的预期。“鲍威尔今天很想说‘我们开始吧’,但同时他也知道,在获得更多时间和数据之前,他还不必做出承诺,”《博克报告》(Boock Report)的彼得-博克瓦尔(Peter Boockvar)说。在Lazard的Ronald Temple看来,美联储“已经明确发出了”9月份降息的信号。他指出:“虽然我认为通胀放缓、劳动力市场紧张状况缓解以及经济增长放缓是7月份降息的正当理由,但我认为7周后降息的理由将更加充分。”掉期交易商仍然完全预计9月份将降息25个基点,全年总计降息近70个基点。太平洋投资管理公司(PIMCO)的蒂芙尼-怀尔丁(Tiffany Wilding)说,鉴于市场已经完全为9月降息定价,美联储的声明和鲍威尔的讲话都没有显著改变债券市场的利率走势。“数据已经朝着鲍威尔的方向发展,现在他正准备跟进,”TradeStation的大卫-拉塞尔(David Russell)说。“周五的非农就业数据和两周后的CPI是下一个重要项目。如果这些数据进展顺利,鲍威尔可能会在8月底的杰克逊霍尔央行年度会议上发出更明确的信息。”以下是华尔街一些评论员和策略师对美联储最新决议的更多看法:瑞银交易员Leo He:“这份声明无疑比6月份的声明更加鸽派,因为美联储表示他们现在正专注于双重任务。但这绝对不是完全的转向。由于梅斯特退休,最鸽派的FOMC委员古尔斯比在本次会议上作为候补委员投票。贝丝-哈马克(Beth M. Hammack)将于本月晚些时候就任克利夫兰联储主席一职,并可能从9月份起接替投票人的角色。”LH Meyer/Monetary Policy Analytics经济学家Derek Tang:“声明相当平衡,很好地捕捉到了通胀和实际情况的缓和,同时也没有助长11月降息的势头。如果没有什么能阻止他们的行动,9月份的宽松政策应该还是可行的。”彭博智库首席利率策略师Ira Jersey:“总体而言,美联储的政策声明似乎符合我们的预期,因为它是平衡的。新措辞并不意味着9月份的降息迫在眉睫。曲线前端的抛售似乎是合理的。鲍威尔的新闻发布会可能比声明中的渐进变化更能说明问题。”DWS美洲固定收益部主管George Catrambone:“风险更具有两面性了。他们将能获得更多数据来确认通胀下降的路径,但等待太久无法实现软着陆。”摩根士丹利经济学家Ellen Zentner:“FOMC声明对通胀和劳动力市场的描述发生了重要变化,强调了双重任务的风险。对劳动力市场降温的强调是向更加平衡的基调的重要转变,我们认为这为美联储在9月份进行降息做好了准备。”彭博经济首席经济学家Anna Wong:“政策声明中包含的红线极少,但却向投资者传递了大量信息:官员们肯定还没准备好在7月份降息,也不想让投资者放心地认为9月份一定会降息25个基点,更不用说市场最近考虑的降息50个基点了。新声明保留了委员会在对通胀下降轨迹增强信心之前预计不宜降息的措辞,这是鹰派之举。不过,通过承认近期失业率的上升,并补充说他们现在同样关注其双重任务中的充分就业部分,FOMC确实保留了9月份降息的希望。我们认为,他们对即将降息仅发出最低限度暗示的主要原因是,9月FOMC会议之前还有大量数据要发布——还有两份通胀和就业报告,届时数据可能会发生很大变化。鲍威尔将于8月底在杰克逊霍尔发表讲话,届时他又将掌握一个月的就业和通胀数据,这将是明确表示9月份降息的最佳时机。”美国银行经济学家 Michael Gapen:“我认为这是正确的渐进举措。我认为美联储觉得它现在正处于一个甜蜜点,数据正朝着它的方向发展,所以它正在接近。它只需要再多一点点,然后那种模糊的信心可能就会出现。”惠誉评级公司首席经济学家Brian Coulton:“随着美联储准备在9月份开启降息之门,钥匙开始缓慢转动。”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":147,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":365741407088936,"gmtCreate":1730332403061,"gmtModify":1730332405231,"author":{"id":"4167636942774862","authorId":"4167636942774862","name":"ifeng","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4167636942774862","authorIdStr":"4167636942774862"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">$英特尔(INTC)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 没事儿,等10美金以下再看","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">$英特尔(INTC)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 没事儿,等10美金以下再看","text":"$英特尔(INTC)$ 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隔壁标普,道琼斯已经先走一步了。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/348247719977304","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":540,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":346394483355736,"gmtCreate":1725612333411,"gmtModify":1725612335780,"author":{"id":"4167636942774862","authorId":"4167636942774862","name":"ifeng","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4167636942774862","authorIdStr":"4167636942774862"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"等日本那边的消息,日本方面的政策对短期美股涨跌影响很大的","listText":"等日本那边的消息,日本方面的政策对短期美股涨跌影响很大的","text":"等日本那边的消息,日本方面的政策对短期美股涨跌影响很大的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/346394483355736","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":449,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":346416309322024,"gmtCreate":1725611557789,"gmtModify":1725611559170,"author":{"id":"4167636942774862","authorId":"4167636942774862","name":"ifeng","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4167636942774862","authorIdStr":"4167636942774862"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 非农只是小意思,就看日本那只黑天鹅什么时候来了。这才是,达摩克利斯之剑。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 非农只是小意思,就看日本那只黑天鹅什么时候来了。这才是,达摩克利斯之剑。","text":"$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ 非农只是小意思,就看日本那只黑天鹅什么时候来了。这才是,达摩克利斯之剑。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/346416309322024","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":602,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}