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大老虎头

大老虎头

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IP属地：江苏

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04-24

$理想汽车-W(02015)$ 李想真**它naming的

04-18

$理想汽车(LI)$ 退市吧

04-17

$理想汽车(LI)$ 真垃圾

04-17

$理想汽车(LI)$ 这个票的确该s

04-10

$三倍做多富时中国ETF-Direxion(YINN)$ 完了跟跌不跟涨。

04-10

$理想汽车-W(02015)$ 跳起来去打小鹏的膝盖去。

04-09

定价估计在23-26之间

04-09

$理想汽车(LI)$ 小鹏蔚来都支棱起来了你还在磨蹭。

04-03

$理想汽车(LI)$ @李想情何以堪？天天这样搞？

04-03

$热门中概股(BK4526)$ 中概股被做空的太惨烈了。还去跟人家争呀？吹牛皮呀？承认自己是孙子又这么难吗？皇帝的新装自己永远不知道自己是个什么鬼。

04-03

$理想汽车-W(02015)$ 这走势，绝了。

04-01

$理想汽车(LI)$ 公司要破产了吗？那我的钱也就不要了。这尼玛跌这样涨一个点？

03-29

@可以不可以增加一款增程版？

李想低头，高端MPV的灵魂是油箱？

03-27

$理想汽车(LI)$ 买啥跌啥三倍做多跌一波药明跌一波你一波都快没了百分之70跌下去了。

03-25

$理想汽车(LI)$ 理想最近一点都不理想呀！！！

03-21

$理想汽车(LI)$ 暂时没钱了这个位置如果没钱赚我倒立吃屎。

03-21

$理想汽车(LI)$ 信不信今天能拉起来？

03-21

我也不知道我觉得太疼了。

03-21

$理想汽车(LI)$ 天天跌谁受得了呀，卧槽

03-21

不知道说啥悲哀

美股异动 | 理想汽车盘前“跳水”跌超7%，公司下调Q1交付预期

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跌这样涨一个点？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/290627737751856","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":207,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":289355445956792,"gmtCreate":1711666428029,"gmtModify":1711666429707,"author":{"id":"4160815394880982","authorId":"4160815394880982","name":"大老虎头","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a61516182a8c5e896f53aec43330afa3","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"@可以不可以增加一款增程版？","listText":"@可以不可以增加一款增程版？","text":"@可以不可以增加一款增程版？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/289355445956792","repostId":"2422981539","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2422981539","pubTimestamp":1711510400,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2422981539?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-03-27 11:33","market":"sg","language":"zh","title":"李想低头，高端MPV的灵魂是油箱？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2422981539","media":"远川汽车评论","summary":"带油箱的车型畅销，实则是MPV消费保守性的一个切面","content":"<html><body><p>3月21日，许久没有发声的李想发布了一封内部信，坦承MEGA节奏错误，甚至影响到L系列车型的销售，理想决定放弃MEGA全面开花的销售策略，主攻少数大型城市。</p><p>随后流出的一份投资人交流纪要显示，MEGA的销售目标指引降到2000辆/月，此前理想的目标约为8000辆/月，这也意味着试图成为“50万以上不分车身与能源形式销量第一”的MEGA，选择了接受“高端纯电MPV难成爆款”的现状。</p><p>过去两三年，中国车企集体涌向有增长潜力的中高端MPV市场。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2db35015c1a24dc5b5d362ada62678d7\"/></p><p label=\"图片备注\">图片来源：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BITA\">易车</a>研究院</p><p>然而卖得最好的MPV，并非看起来代表先进生产力前进方向的“<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>电动MPV”。在这个相对狭小又趋于保守的市场中，一家企业能取得多大的战果，决定性因素往往不只是手中有什么武器，更是是否选对了主战场。</p><p label=\"大标题\">一、趋势：在高端家用上走到底</p><p>MEGA上市时，有两个选择不太被理解：其一，All in家庭，完全放弃了占据MPV销量半壁江山的商务市场；其二，定出了56万的高价，比新款L9贵了整整十万，很难用性价比去说服潜在消费者。</p><p>但追根溯源，这两个不常规的选择其实是跟随车市消费结构和人口结构变化大势走的。</p><p>2016年，伴随着二孩政策的放开，新组建家庭规模的扩大，中国市场MPV销量达到了223万的历史性高峰。当年的MPV销冠是均价6万元，一年卖了65万辆，一度被福布斯评为“世界上最重要的车”——五菱宏光。在汽车消费首购占比超过60%的当时，价格低廉的五菱宏光很好地满足了中小城市个体户、小家庭们客货两用的需求。</p><p>但也是在2016年，以规模日益庞大的中产为目标客户的盒马鲜生开出了第一家门店。在一片消费升级的氛围中，五菱宏光的销量连年降低，20万以上的MPV却越卖越好。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f19eb2a76254b8c99f2528f92540689\"/></p><p>如今，在别克其他车型遭受自主品牌严重冲击时，GL8以一己之力成为上汽通用集团在中国的利润支柱；埃尔法虽然一年仅2万辆左右销量，但却加价成百万豪车，每年稳定创造200亿营收。<strong>高端MPV在近几年是MPV实质上的重心市场。</strong></p><p>而在高端车型逐渐成为MPV市场主力的同时，高端MPV的消费群体也在发生变化：<strong>从商务为主，转为商家并重。</strong></p><p>在中国，MPV给人的第一印象就是GL8奠定的商务风。MPV充分的纵向和垂向空间，得以在第二排布置舒适度拉满的老板座，还能在第三排载上随行人员，高度契合商务场景。</p><p>但随着汽车消费首购比例跌破50%，中国车市进入一个增换购为主的中年型市场，与此同时多胎新生儿占比逐年上扬——买车的主力靠向中年人，而中年人的家庭规模在明显扩大，对一辆更大空间的家庭用车需求日渐显现。</p><p>不仅奥德赛、艾力绅等以家用为主的20万价位MPV热销，定位家用MPV、价格超过30万的丰田赛那，在2022年国产后更是成为销量仅次于GL8的高端MPV。</p><p>如今，日常消费品的升级慢了下来，MPV的家用化与高端化势头却一直延续。面对这两个不可阻挡的势头，新势力们在打造自己的第一款MPV时，普遍选择了造30万以上的车型，同时向家用方向靠一靠。</p><p>理想的MEGA则是MPV家用化、高端化合流的最突出代表，完全不考虑商务市场的需求，也不谋求把这款车卖给普通中产家庭。在它之前，定位高端家用MPV的丰田赛那定价30余万，有近三分之一销量来自商务市场。</p><p>当然，除了大势，这和理想的品牌定位和短期目标也有巨大关系。理想历来致力于创造“移动的家”，家庭需求是其造车的圆心；同时，在进入毛利更低的纯电市场时，理想并不想放弃利润，更不想扰乱产品序列和相应的价格体系，最终定出了56万的高价。</p><p label=\"大标题\">二、矛盾：在小市场中做出爆款</p><p>不过，趋势是一回事，市场的真实情况是另一回事。</p><p>当腾势、极氪、岚图、小鹏、理想们集体踏入MPV市场时，他们面对的其实是一个令人纠结的市场。</p><p>一方面，MPV市场产品竞争烈度显著小于SUV、轿车，且有着一定的增长潜力和不错的溢价空间。但另一方面，MPV市场的销量已经五连降，年销量仅一百万辆出头。如此狭小的市场规模，蛋糕显然不够分。新来者要么从传统车企嘴里虎口夺食，要么将蛋糕做大。</p><p>面对市场从哪来这个问题，新势力可以分为三种派别：传统改良派；车型跨界派；豪赌家庭派。</p><p>其中<strong>传统改良派以腾势D9为代表</strong>，它的主要工作是在传统高端MPV基础上做加法而非重构。</p><p>在外观上，D9采用传统MPV的大面积格栅和方正车身，并将尺寸做得更大来凸显气势；动力系统上，以插混为主，既有电驱体验又有续航无忧；在产品配置上，不搞黑科技，甚至不重视智能化<span label=\"备注\">（尤其是智驾）</span>，但在内饰、座椅等都寻求压传统竞品一头。</p><p label=\"正文\">腾势D9的产品策略主打一个最大公约数，少留短板<span label=\"备注\">（除了老款的半导体冰箱）</span>、宜商宜家， 做埃尔法的平替，GL8的升级。</p><p><strong>今年才上市的小鹏X9则是MPV中的车型跨界派</strong>，产品定位是可以当做SUV开的MPV。</p><p>相较于传统MPV产品价值向乘客倾斜，X9同时照顾驾驶者和家人，不仅布置了一个SUV化的车尾造型，还配备了后轮转向技术，让其驾驶感受更接近于SUV。相比重视第三排乘坐需求的MPV，X9又采用了第三排座椅下沉式后备箱，必要时可以获得远大于同尺寸SUV的装载空间。</p><p>显然，X9的策略是和MPV比灵活，和SUV比装载能力，通过跨界尽量扩大潜在客群，同时在30万~40万的SUV、MPV市场中拿下一定市场份额。</p><p><strong>豪赌家庭派的代表则是MEGA。</strong>相比于D9、X9努力扩大客户覆盖面积的操作，MEGA的产品策略是高度聚焦，挖掘并满足一个<span label=\"备注\">（设想中未被满足）</span>的需求：富裕家庭全家人的舒适出行体验。</p><p>MEGA的剑走偏锋，部分源于一个现实问题：MPV的商务与家用需求天生存在矛盾——商务MPV以保障第二排老板位的舒适和私密性为先，会明显挤占为其他乘员分配的资源；家用MPV则更加平等，要提供家人相互照顾、交流的便利。</p><p>面对难解的矛盾，MEGA选择舍弃商务市场，将资源悉数用于家庭这个基本盘。在被问到MEGA为何没有配后轮转向，理想方面的回应是：“影响乘客舒适性以及第三排空间。”</p><p>但这又落入了另一个矛盾。国内MPV车型有一条规律，<strong>价格越高，商务用途比例越大，50万以上的MPV一旦放弃商务市场，天生会损失一半潜客。</strong>MEGA如果要成为理想预期中月销8000辆的爆款，不仅要抢走埃尔法、奔驰V的家用客户，还要说服X5、GLE、Q7的车主们买单。</p><p>可惜的是，这是MEGA未竞的事业。</p><p label=\"大标题\">三、现实：MEGA的香不及油箱</p><p>MEGA的订单表现不及理想预期，原因并非单一方面的，而是产品策略过于追求极致，导致MEGA在市场上不是在吸引消费者，而是在筛选消费者，并且是筛了一轮又一轮。</p><p>以2023年数据为例，在2100万乘用车大盘中，MPV占比约5%，总量约109.3万辆。在109.3万辆MPV中，纯电MPV销量仅8.1万辆。50万以上纯电MPV约2万辆，其中大部分为极氪009。</p><p>在约2万辆的参考市场容量基础上，由于采用了具有争议性的先锋外观，MEGA会进一步劝退部分用户，尤其是审美偏向传统但又多金的大龄中年用户。</p><p>除此之外，MEGA由于定位家庭，温馨向的内饰和不够彰显车内等级的二排座椅，又会将数量可观的商务用途客户拒之门外。</p><p>车Fans收集的72小时渠道一线反馈也印证了这种筛选效应：MEGA的定车客群集中在35岁~45岁，偏年轻；一些客户则反馈车型不够商务。</p><p>在经过重重筛选后，MEGA的实际客户群体变得非常狭窄：不仅得是高净值的多胎家庭，还必须由心态、审美开放的年轻一代掌握财富支配权——比如有五个孩子的80后世界500强CEO。</p><p>在观望情绪严重、充斥着等等党的当下市场中，高价、小众车型如果想打破上述筛选效应，一出世就成为爆款，必须要提供力度更大、甚至是扑面而来的价值感。要么用技术武装到牙齿，打造又一款科技车皇；要么在看得见摸得着的地方都提供体验优势，成为“一千万以内最好的MPV”。</p><p>原本后者是理想在L系列非常擅长的技能，不同之处在于，MEGA这次没增程。</p><p>以增程车型为主力的深蓝汽车CEO邓承浩有一段金句：<strong>新能源车所有的爽点都来自电驱，所有的痛点都来自电池。</strong>相比纯电，增程是一个同时解决了高端车型驾驶体验问题、成本难题以及补能/续航难题的方案，并从动力系统中节省出了大量成本用于提升内饰、底盘、座舱等配置的价值能见度。</p><p>但当理想上手打造高端纯电MPV时，面对的是L系列无法感同身受的续航焦虑，和为了解决续航/补能问题，在5C电池、5C超充站上投入的高昂研发费用和巨大资本开支，以及昂贵的100kWh 5C电池包对整车BOM成本的挤占。</p><p>理想曾有开发MEGA增程版的计划，但在李想打造极致产品的拍板下，这一版本被取消，增程面对纯电的各种优势，最终与MEGA无缘。</p><p><strong>某种意义上，考虑到纯电产业链的成熟度、补能设施的完善程度以及本身的车型市场容量，高端纯电MPV很难成为通常意义上的爆款。而在高端纯电MPV注定了要打逆风局的现实情况下，理想为了不损害毛利率，选择了以顺风局的打法打出了MEGA这张牌。</strong></p><p>比如MEGA作为新开一条产品线的旗舰车型， 套用了L系列的内饰风格，辅以不易感知的材质升级；除了5C电池，MEGA没有任何独占或首发的、区别于L系列的“黑科技”；在MEGA开售前，理想没有任何在城市中建设直营超充站的计划。</p><p>这些节省成本取向的选择，最终削弱了MEGA的产品价值可见度，自然也降低了其成为爆款的可能。</p><p>而在30万~40万MPV市场，腾势D9则拿着理想L系列的剧本大杀四方——油箱+电池+电机的组合，以及水桶车的产品倾向，让D9在2023年超越GL8，成为高端MPV销冠。在竞争中一时落败的GL8，也积极响应市场需求，将在今年8月推出插混版本。</p><p label=\"大标题\">四、尾声</p><p>在MEGA上市前的2023年，纯电MPV的销量只能用惨淡来形容。燃油与插混在MPV市场中销量占比高达92.6%。</p><p>带油箱的车型畅销，实则是MPV消费保守性的一个切面——搭载的乘员多、需求多、约束条件多，影响消费决策的人也多，MPV对四平八稳、中庸有天然的要求。落在创新扩散曲线上，<strong>MPV的主力消费者大概率是其中的保守主义者。</strong></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96440f35291241a193af72538845ef4d\"/></p><p>但如今，把SUV、轿车试过一遍的新势力为了向上走，选择让体型更大的MPV承担品牌冲高、获取溢价、验证纯电商业模式等先锋任务。</p><p>一家车企当然会明白，当自身的目标和主力用户的需求实际上相悖的时候，爆款是没那么容易诞生的。</p><p><span label=\"备注\">本文来自微信公众号：</span><span>远川汽车评论（ID：yuanchuanqiche）</span><span>，作者：熊宇翔，编辑：罗松松</span></p></body></html>","source":"highlight_huxiu","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>李想低头，高端MPV的灵魂是油箱？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n李想低头，高端MPV的灵魂是油箱？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-03-27 11:33 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.huxiu.com/article/2832098.html><strong>远川汽车评论</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>3月21日，许久没有发声的李想发布了一封内部信，坦承MEGA节奏错误，甚至影响到L系列车型的销售，理想决定放弃MEGA全面开花的销售策略，主攻少数大型城市。随后流出的一份投资人交流纪要显示，MEGA的销售目标指引降到2000辆/月，此前理想的目标约为8000辆/月，这也意味着试图成为“50万以上不分车身与能源形式销量第一”的MEGA，选择了接受“高端纯电MPV难成爆款”的现状。过去两三年，中国车企...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.huxiu.com/article/2832098.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://img.huxiucdn.com/article/cover/202403/27/095845006186.jpg?imageView2/1/w/720/h/405/|imageMogr2/strip/interlace/1/quality/85/format/jpg","relate_stocks":{"EVS.SI":"MSCI China Electric Vehicles and Future Mobility 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in家庭，完全放弃了占据MPV销量半壁江山的商务市场；其二，定出了56万的高价，比新款L9贵了整整十万，很难用性价比去说服潜在消费者。但追根溯源，这两个不常规的选择其实是跟随车市消费结构和人口结构变化大势走的。2016年，伴随着二孩政策的放开，新组建家庭规模的扩大，中国市场MPV销量达到了223万的历史性高峰。当年的MPV销冠是均价6万元，一年卖了65万辆，一度被福布斯评为“世界上最重要的车”——五菱宏光。在汽车消费首购占比超过60%的当时，价格低廉的五菱宏光很好地满足了中小城市个体户、小家庭们客货两用的需求。但也是在2016年，以规模日益庞大的中产为目标客户的盒马鲜生开出了第一家门店。在一片消费升级的氛围中，五菱宏光的销量连年降低，20万以上的MPV却越卖越好。如今，在别克其他车型遭受自主品牌严重冲击时，GL8以一己之力成为上汽通用集团在中国的利润支柱；埃尔法虽然一年仅2万辆左右销量，但却加价成百万豪车，每年稳定创造200亿营收。高端MPV在近几年是MPV实质上的重心市场。而在高端车型逐渐成为MPV市场主力的同时，高端MPV的消费群体也在发生变化：从商务为主，转为商家并重。在中国，MPV给人的第一印象就是GL8奠定的商务风。MPV充分的纵向和垂向空间，得以在第二排布置舒适度拉满的老板座，还能在第三排载上随行人员，高度契合商务场景。但随着汽车消费首购比例跌破50%，中国车市进入一个增换购为主的中年型市场，与此同时多胎新生儿占比逐年上扬——买车的主力靠向中年人，而中年人的家庭规模在明显扩大，对一辆更大空间的家庭用车需求日渐显现。不仅奥德赛、艾力绅等以家用为主的20万价位MPV热销，定位家用MPV、价格超过30万的丰田赛那，在2022年国产后更是成为销量仅次于GL8的高端MPV。如今，日常消费品的升级慢了下来，MPV的家用化与高端化势头却一直延续。面对这两个不可阻挡的势头，新势力们在打造自己的第一款MPV时，普遍选择了造30万以上的车型，同时向家用方向靠一靠。理想的MEGA则是MPV家用化、高端化合流的最突出代表，完全不考虑商务市场的需求，也不谋求把这款车卖给普通中产家庭。在它之前，定位高端家用MPV的丰田赛那定价30余万，有近三分之一销量来自商务市场。当然，除了大势，这和理想的品牌定位和短期目标也有巨大关系。理想历来致力于创造“移动的家”，家庭需求是其造车的圆心；同时，在进入毛利更低的纯电市场时，理想并不想放弃利润，更不想扰乱产品序列和相应的价格体系，最终定出了56万的高价。二、矛盾：在小市场中做出爆款不过，趋势是一回事，市场的真实情况是另一回事。当腾势、极氪、岚图、小鹏、理想们集体踏入MPV市场时，他们面对的其实是一个令人纠结的市场。一方面，MPV市场产品竞争烈度显著小于SUV、轿车，且有着一定的增长潜力和不错的溢价空间。但另一方面，MPV市场的销量已经五连降，年销量仅一百万辆出头。如此狭小的市场规模，蛋糕显然不够分。新来者要么从传统车企嘴里虎口夺食，要么将蛋糕做大。面对市场从哪来这个问题，新势力可以分为三种派别：传统改良派；车型跨界派；豪赌家庭派。其中传统改良派以腾势D9为代表，它的主要工作是在传统高端MPV基础上做加法而非重构。在外观上，D9采用传统MPV的大面积格栅和方正车身，并将尺寸做得更大来凸显气势；动力系统上，以插混为主，既有电驱体验又有续航无忧；在产品配置上，不搞黑科技，甚至不重视智能化（尤其是智驾），但在内饰、座椅等都寻求压传统竞品一头。腾势D9的产品策略主打一个最大公约数，少留短板（除了老款的半导体冰箱）、宜商宜家， 做埃尔法的平替，GL8的升级。今年才上市的小鹏X9则是MPV中的车型跨界派，产品定位是可以当做SUV开的MPV。相较于传统MPV产品价值向乘客倾斜，X9同时照顾驾驶者和家人，不仅布置了一个SUV化的车尾造型，还配备了后轮转向技术，让其驾驶感受更接近于SUV。相比重视第三排乘坐需求的MPV，X9又采用了第三排座椅下沉式后备箱，必要时可以获得远大于同尺寸SUV的装载空间。显然，X9的策略是和MPV比灵活，和SUV比装载能力，通过跨界尽量扩大潜在客群，同时在30万~40万的SUV、MPV市场中拿下一定市场份额。豪赌家庭派的代表则是MEGA。相比于D9、X9努力扩大客户覆盖面积的操作，MEGA的产品策略是高度聚焦，挖掘并满足一个（设想中未被满足）的需求：富裕家庭全家人的舒适出行体验。MEGA的剑走偏锋，部分源于一个现实问题：MPV的商务与家用需求天生存在矛盾——商务MPV以保障第二排老板位的舒适和私密性为先，会明显挤占为其他乘员分配的资源；家用MPV则更加平等，要提供家人相互照顾、交流的便利。面对难解的矛盾，MEGA选择舍弃商务市场，将资源悉数用于家庭这个基本盘。在被问到MEGA为何没有配后轮转向，理想方面的回应是：“影响乘客舒适性以及第三排空间。”但这又落入了另一个矛盾。国内MPV车型有一条规律，价格越高，商务用途比例越大，50万以上的MPV一旦放弃商务市场，天生会损失一半潜客。MEGA如果要成为理想预期中月销8000辆的爆款，不仅要抢走埃尔法、奔驰V的家用客户，还要说服X5、GLE、Q7的车主们买单。可惜的是，这是MEGA未竞的事业。三、现实：MEGA的香不及油箱MEGA的订单表现不及理想预期，原因并非单一方面的，而是产品策略过于追求极致，导致MEGA在市场上不是在吸引消费者，而是在筛选消费者，并且是筛了一轮又一轮。以2023年数据为例，在2100万乘用车大盘中，MPV占比约5%，总量约109.3万辆。在109.3万辆MPV中，纯电MPV销量仅8.1万辆。50万以上纯电MPV约2万辆，其中大部分为极氪009。在约2万辆的参考市场容量基础上，由于采用了具有争议性的先锋外观，MEGA会进一步劝退部分用户，尤其是审美偏向传统但又多金的大龄中年用户。除此之外，MEGA由于定位家庭，温馨向的内饰和不够彰显车内等级的二排座椅，又会将数量可观的商务用途客户拒之门外。车Fans收集的72小时渠道一线反馈也印证了这种筛选效应：MEGA的定车客群集中在35岁~45岁，偏年轻；一些客户则反馈车型不够商务。在经过重重筛选后，MEGA的实际客户群体变得非常狭窄：不仅得是高净值的多胎家庭，还必须由心态、审美开放的年轻一代掌握财富支配权——比如有五个孩子的80后世界500强CEO。在观望情绪严重、充斥着等等党的当下市场中，高价、小众车型如果想打破上述筛选效应，一出世就成为爆款，必须要提供力度更大、甚至是扑面而来的价值感。要么用技术武装到牙齿，打造又一款科技车皇；要么在看得见摸得着的地方都提供体验优势，成为“一千万以内最好的MPV”。原本后者是理想在L系列非常擅长的技能，不同之处在于，MEGA这次没增程。以增程车型为主力的深蓝汽车CEO邓承浩有一段金句：新能源车所有的爽点都来自电驱，所有的痛点都来自电池。相比纯电，增程是一个同时解决了高端车型驾驶体验问题、成本难题以及补能/续航难题的方案，并从动力系统中节省出了大量成本用于提升内饰、底盘、座舱等配置的价值能见度。但当理想上手打造高端纯电MPV时，面对的是L系列无法感同身受的续航焦虑，和为了解决续航/补能问题，在5C电池、5C超充站上投入的高昂研发费用和巨大资本开支，以及昂贵的100kWh 5C电池包对整车BOM成本的挤占。理想曾有开发MEGA增程版的计划，但在李想打造极致产品的拍板下，这一版本被取消，增程面对纯电的各种优势，最终与MEGA无缘。某种意义上，考虑到纯电产业链的成熟度、补能设施的完善程度以及本身的车型市场容量，高端纯电MPV很难成为通常意义上的爆款。而在高端纯电MPV注定了要打逆风局的现实情况下，理想为了不损害毛利率，选择了以顺风局的打法打出了MEGA这张牌。比如MEGA作为新开一条产品线的旗舰车型， 套用了L系列的内饰风格，辅以不易感知的材质升级；除了5C电池，MEGA没有任何独占或首发的、区别于L系列的“黑科技”；在MEGA开售前，理想没有任何在城市中建设直营超充站的计划。这些节省成本取向的选择，最终削弱了MEGA的产品价值可见度，自然也降低了其成为爆款的可能。而在30万~40万MPV市场，腾势D9则拿着理想L系列的剧本大杀四方——油箱+电池+电机的组合，以及水桶车的产品倾向，让D9在2023年超越GL8，成为高端MPV销冠。在竞争中一时落败的GL8，也积极响应市场需求，将在今年8月推出插混版本。四、尾声在MEGA上市前的2023年，纯电MPV的销量只能用惨淡来形容。燃油与插混在MPV市场中销量占比高达92.6%。带油箱的车型畅销，实则是MPV消费保守性的一个切面——搭载的乘员多、需求多、约束条件多，影响消费决策的人也多，MPV对四平八稳、中庸有天然的要求。落在创新扩散曲线上，MPV的主力消费者大概率是其中的保守主义者。但如今，把SUV、轿车试过一遍的新势力为了向上走，选择让体型更大的MPV承担品牌冲高、获取溢价、验证纯电商业模式等先锋任务。一家车企当然会明白，当自身的目标和主力用户的需求实际上相悖的时候，爆款是没那么容易诞生的。本文来自微信公众号：远川汽车评论（ID：yuanchuanqiche），作者：熊宇翔，编辑：罗松松","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":232,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":288859174043856,"gmtCreate":1711546703405,"gmtModify":1711546704808,"author":{"id":"4160815394880982","authorId":"4160815394880982","name":"大老虎头","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a61516182a8c5e896f53aec43330afa3","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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