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Juliasheng

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2022-06-26

继续

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2022-06-26

[微笑] [微笑]

11类资金：哪些在加仓？后续怎么看？

2022-06-26

[微笑] [微笑]

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2021-12-16

泡沫来了

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2021-12-16

静等下周好戏

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2021-12-16

市场多余的美元哪里去？炒股吧，股市节节攀升

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2021-11-23

特斯拉的大空投是马斯克

特斯拉屹立不倒，“大空头”认怂：马斯克会玩

2021-11-08

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@小虎活动:[Halloween Game] Trade or Treat!

2021-11-07

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@小虎活动:[Halloween Game] Trade or Treat!

2021-11-05

躺赢组合

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2021-11-05

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@小虎活动:[Halloween Game] Trade or Treat!

2021-11-04

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@小虎活动:[Halloween Game] Trade or Treat!

2021-11-02

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2021-11-01

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@小虎活动:[Halloween Game] Trade or Treat!

2021-10-28

[呆住]

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[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/683824556","repostId":"1147735251","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1147735251","pubTimestamp":1656119482,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1147735251?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-06-25 09:11","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"11类资金：哪些在加仓？后续怎么看？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147735251","media":"尧望后势","summary":"不过，公募基金并非近期加仓主力，5月市场回升以来偏股基金股票仓位反而回落。因此，后续保险资金继续降低仓位的空间有限，反而近期加仓意愿有所提升。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>引言：</b>近期市场持续回暖，市场成交维持万亿元以上，市场呈现出增量资金入市的迹象。那么近期哪些资金在加仓？后续怎么看？本报告系统梳理了近期北上、公募、私募、保险、两融、产业资本、固收+产品、银行理财等11类资金的5月以来的流入流出情况，供投资者参考。</p><p><b>核心结论：资金面仍处于存量博弈，但边际向好</b></p><p><b>5月以来资金面存量博弈的格局仍未完全打破，但边际进一步改善。</b>5月以来市场行情明显回暖，北向资金流入大幅提速、新发基金小幅回暖、私募股票多头仓位有所提升、两融资金转为净流入。但同时，本周北上资金流入速度有所放缓、新发基金规模仍处于历史低位、存量基金仓位小幅回落、私募加仓幅度有限、绝对收益资金仓位仍处于历史低位。<b>总结来看，市场仍处于存量博弈，但边际上较前期显著改善。</b></p><p><b>1、北上资金5月以来流入提速。</b>5月中下旬开始北上净流入明显提速，有5天单日流入超百亿元，且配置盘、交易盘同步流入提速。不过需要注意到，本周以来北上资金连续三天流出，主要是前期大幅流入的交易盘转为流出，可能对短期资金面有所扰动。拉长时间看，国内基本面持续修复下，中国权益资产仍具备显著优势，后续有望持续吸引外资回归常态化配置。</p><p><b>2、偏股公募基金发行自5月下旬开始有所回暖，但存量基金仓位回落。</b>从周度数据上看，5月下旬开始偏股基金新发规模已经出现回暖。结合历史经验来看，新发基金份额往往与基金过去一个季度收益率高度相关，当前该收益率已经转正，新发基金份额有望迎来回升。不过，公募基金并非近期加仓主力，5月市场回升以来偏股基金股票仓位反而回落。</p><p><b>3、市场回暖后固收+产品面临的业绩压力持续减缓，赎回压力减轻。</b>当前固收+股票仓位处于近两年较低水平，进一步减仓空间有限。随着5月以来市场回暖，固收+产品的业绩压力持续减缓，预计赎回压力也逐步减轻。</p><p><b>4、保险资金4月净流出缩窄，当前股票仓位处于历史底部水平。</b>4月保险资金净流出缩窄，且仓位水平已进一步回落至历史底部区间。因此，后续保险资金继续降低仓位的空间有限，反而近期加仓意愿有所提升。</p><p><b>5、私募股票多头策略仓位5月以来整体回升，不过6月初前后有所减仓。</b>5月市场反弹后私募股票多头跟随反弹加仓，不过6月初前后有所减仓。当前私募多头仓位水平仍然处于较低分位，后续仓位提升的空间依然较大。</p><p><b>6、两融资金5月以来转为净流入，成交活跃度逐步回暖。</b>由于其“顺势交易”的特点，两融资金5余额以来转为净流入，且6月净流入进一步提速。两融余额随着市场已经企稳回升，且成交活跃度较前期逐步回暖。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cb585cbc9917b51c8226ebdb75542ab\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1156\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>一、北上资金：6月流入再提速，配置盘交易盘同步加仓</b></p><p><b>今年6月1日至21日北上资金净流入提升至479亿元，交易盘与配置盘同步加仓。</b>6月初以来，虽然海外加息及衰退预期仍有扰动，但随着中国经济快速修复，人民币汇率由贬转升，中国市场较海外逐步显现出“比较优势”，吸引北上资金流入再提速。截至6月21日，6月北上资金净流入479亿元，净流入金额较5月提升310亿元，年初以来北向资金转为净流入467亿元（该数据自6月1日起转为净流入）。拆分来看，6月配置盘净流入309亿元，交易盘净流入154亿元，两类资金加仓步伐同步提速。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e01e25f67d86b9a4650276e29d666c85\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>行业配置方面，截至6月21日，北上资金5月以来净流入食品饮料、银行、电力设备、基础化工、煤炭行业较多，净流出房地产、钢铁、有色金属、轻工制造、电子行业较多。</b>拆分来看，配置盘5月以来净流入电力设备、食品饮料、银行、机械设备、煤炭行业居多，净流出房地产、有色金属、钢铁、医药生物、家用电器行业居多；交易盘净流入食品饮料、银行、医药生物、交通运输、家用电器行业居多，净流出电力设备、电子、机械设备、房地产、钢铁居多。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d934dc0ba6beb17ea42d74292bd4315\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>个股层面上，截至6月21日，今年5月以来净流入居前的个股有伊利股份、贵州茅台、招商银行、东方雨虹、中国中免等，净流出居多的个股有宁德时代、海螺水泥、天赐材料、三花智控、新宙邦等。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1464ae62b9bce85f696a43d3559e62c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"577\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>二、公募基金：5月下旬新发行回暖，但基金仓位有所回落</b></p><p><b>5月下旬以来公募基金发行规模回暖。</b>从偏股基金（股票型+混合型）的口径来看，截至6月21日，今年6月新发偏股基金规模为175亿元，已经超过5月整月发行。尽管基金发行绝对规模仍处于历史低位，但5月下旬以来周度发行数据已有所回暖。老基金申赎方面，4月偏股老基金获净赎回582亿元，赎回规模环比有所增大，但赎回规模并不大。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95d3e0cace80777a6508410298a4a27c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"371\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7eb7201cead4ceb558fc87288e71857\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"617\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>新发基金规模往往与基金过去一个季度收益率高度相关，当下该收益率已经转正，新发基金份额有望逐步迎来回升。</b>从历史复盘角度看，新发基金（股票型+混合型）成立份额与基金重仓股前一季度的收益率具有较高正相关性。截至6月21日，基金重仓（季调）指数过去一个季度收益率已经转正至1.0%，新发基金（股票型+混合型）成立份额也拐头向上，基金收益率若继续回升有望推动新发基金成立份额逐步迎来回升。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5aa860afe6636f9f552d33c40d7c27d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"625\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>从存量基金仓位来看， 5月市场回升以来开放式基金的股票仓位有所回落，普通股票型与偏股混合型仓位降低较多。</b>根据Wind测算，截至6月21日，5月初以来全部开放式基金股票仓位环比下降0.58%至64.20%，普通股票型、偏股混合型和灵活配置型基金的股票仓位分别环比变动-0.80%、-1.03%、-0.28%至86.61%、80.79%、60.46%，其中普通股票型和偏股混合型基金降仓的幅度相对较大。5月以来，虽然市场较前期明显回暖，但公募基金并未显著加仓，并非近期加仓主力。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1af01fdac6c4c7c8ef1b60f4ab08563e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"368\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7233d4b5545106143939e52e5a2a82ec\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"372\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>三、固收+产品：Q1股票仓位环比下降，赎回压力缓解</b></p><p><b>固收+产品22Q1规模维持在2.1万亿元水平，股票仓位环比下降1.4pct至14.3%。</b>截至今年3月底，根据wind固收+基金分类，固收+产品净资产合计突破了2.1万亿元、扩容至21004亿元，股票投资占比降至14.3%，较去年底减少1.4个百分点。“固收+”是指以绝对收益为投资目标，在市场大幅回撤时，基金管理人可能会通过降低股票仓位来控制回撤、保证一定的绝对收益。在一季度市场回撤较大的背景下，固收+产品降低股票仓位。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aeb68285ed4120a8eec4cbf0edb47ccc\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"370\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>固收+产品回撤幅度明显降低，股票仓位处于较低水平，随着市场企稳、后续加仓意愿或有望提升。</b>由于年初至今市场回调较大，导致部分固收+产品回撤较大，市场普遍担心被动赎回引发负反馈。截止今年6月21日，固收+产品今年收益率中位数已经回升至-0.64%左右，市场回暖后收益率回撤的幅度较前期明显缩小，引发负反馈的概率较小。当前有18.5%的固收+产品收益率低于-3%，仍存在一定业绩压力，不过该比例较5月底的30.9%继续回落，业绩压力持续缓解。考虑到当前市场已经逐步回暖，且固收+产品股票仓位已经处于近两年较低水平，后续加仓意愿有望提升。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a15f45a466f4bbd775cf702c81c0c95e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"631\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>四、$Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSFF\">Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF</a>(PSFF)$：5月以来转为净赎回，宽基ETF遭赎回居多</b></p><p><b>5月以来ETF净赎回91亿份，其中消费ETF净申购居首，宽基ETF净赎回居多。</b>截至6月21日，5月以来ETF净赎回91亿份，其中宽基（-182亿份）、科技（+30亿份）、先进制造（+3亿份）、消费（+80亿份）、金融（-22亿份）、周期（+10亿份）、其他主题（-10亿份），消费ETF净申购居首，宽基ETF净赎回居多。今年以来ETF净申购1327亿份，其中宽基（+210亿份）、科技（+206亿份）、先进制造（+64亿份）、消费（+177亿份）、金融（+14亿份）、周期（+113亿份）、其他主题（+29亿份），宽基、科技和消费净申购居多。从历史来看，ETF流动往往与市场反向，5月以来市场明显回暖，今年以来持续加仓的ETF转为流出。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7c65c3fc653d96726b00f1210067119\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>五、保险资金：股票仓位处于历史底部水平</b></p><p><b>今年4月保险资金净流出缩窄，股票和基金仓位处于历史低位。</b>截止今年4月，险资运用余额达到23.63万亿元，其中股票和基金投资规模为2.81万亿元，占比为11.89%，较上月分别减少459亿元、减少0.24%，当前仓位水平已经处于2016年以来的1.3%分位的底部区间，基本与18年底的仓位水平持平。因此，后续保险资金继续降低仓位的空间有限，近期加仓意愿提升。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bdad01f61028f3ed29b1ec9e769a7e0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"370\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>六、银行理财：当前赎回压力预计有限</b></p><p><b>2021年末银行理财规模达到29万亿元，其中权益类资产预计达11600亿元。</b>一方面，根据中国理财网公布的数据，截至2021年12月，银行理财达到29万亿元，同比增长12.14%。另一方面，2021年12月银行理财权益类资产占比仅有3.30%、公募基金占比4.00%，直接持股比例仅为2%至5%，权益类占比仍有非常大的提升空间，若按4.0%占比估计，截至2021年底，银行理财持有A股市场股票市值为11600亿元。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3626a412ba5336d305cb7571aa814a4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"370\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>当前理财产品的赎回压力有限。</b>在Wind记录的27130支银行理财产品中，我们筛选出9413家5月以来公布过最新净值、投资范围涵盖股票或基金的理财产品，且其中有6681家理财产品是今年1月1日前成立的。据统计，今年以来成立的这6681家理财产品中，共有1772支理财产品年初以来收益率为负，其中有630支年初以来亏损超过2%，有346支年初以来亏损超过3%。净值方面，在9413家理财产品中，当前共有718支理财产品净值低于1。5月市场回暖以来，理财产品的净值和收益率压力均已得到明显缓解。由于银行理财产品多属于中低风险投资品种，因此当理财产品收益低于-2%或净值低于1时，产品可能面临赎回压力，目前此类产品占比回落至约10.5%，赎回压力有限，且较前期继续缓解。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfea213751612fb59bfa7299a7036f17\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>七、私募基金：5月以来股票多头仓位有所回升</b></p><p><b>5月以来股票私募多头仓位变动整体回升，不过6月初前后有所减仓。</b>截至今年5月底，私募证券投资基金资产净值达57888亿元，环比基本持平, 基金只数达到83013只。从股票私募多头仓位变动（估算）上看，截至今年6月10日，股票私募多头的仓位比例较5月初提升0.48个百分点至65.58%，仓位水平回升至三年滚动28.6%的分位数。不过，5月29日至6月10日，股票私募多头仓位有所回落，下降1.67个百分点。今年以来私募整体大幅降低仓位，当前仓位水平仍然处于较低水平，但近期市场回暖之下，私募加仓意愿整体有所提升。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2e6a7700f387569e33b7ee344677d43\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"407\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>股票策略阳光私募产品清仓压力有限，且较5月继续缓解。</b>根据私募0.7清仓线、0.8警戒线来看，在21287支5月以来披露最新净值数据的股票策略阳光私募中，共有1051支净值低于0.7清仓线，占比达4.9%，同时有1215支净值处于0.7至0.8之间，占比达到5.7%，两者占比较5月均继续回落，清仓压力有所缓解。当前有89.4%的股票策略阳光私募产品净值均处于0.8以上，私募清仓压力有限。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18fab1e600ccc385381aff9a8db786fb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"605\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>八、两融资金：5月以来转为净流入，成交活跃度提升</b></p><p><b>5月以来两融转为净流入474亿元，成交活跃度有所回暖。</b>从两融净流出规模来看，截至6月21日，5月以来两融净流入474亿元，其中5月、6月分别净流入152亿元、321亿元，今年累计净流出2168亿元。从两融余额来看，6月21日两融余额回升至1.57万亿元，较4月底增加558亿元。从两融成交来看，截至6月21日，6月成交占比已经回升至8.08%，较4月、5月分别增加1.31pct、0.79 pct，两融成交活跃度较前期逐步回暖。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d94f3131ad0359f9dffe90f5de0444f0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"369\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>从行业结构来看，5月以来两融流入电子、有色金属、基础化工、机械和非银行金融等行业居多。</b>截至6月20日，5月以来两融资金净流入电子、有色金属、基础化工、机械和非银行金融行业居前，仅流出医药、消费者服务、计算机、钢铁和农林牧渔行业。当前两融余额较高的前四大行业分别是医药、电子、非银行金融和电力设备及新能源等。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d480d300e88e32bcddffde4bd24242a1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"626\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c63f9e3280da19ee363046a9856a564a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"622\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>九、养老体系：预计保持稳定流入态势</b></p><p><b>1、社保基金：二季度增量预计227亿元</b></p><p><b>社保基金2022年二季度增量预计227亿元。</b>2020年社保基金资产总额2.9万亿元，同比增加11.2%。假设维持11.2%增速，则2022年底社保资产有望达到3.61万亿元。根据基金业协会，2016年底社保配置A股比例21.4%，假设25%占比，2022年全年增量预计909亿元，二季度预计仍将流入227亿元。</p><p><b>社保基金Q1重仓股市值占A股的比重小幅提升。</b>从持股前十市值这一重仓口径上看，截至22Q1末，社保基金重仓持股市值达3387亿元，持仓市值环比缩水，但重仓持股市值占A股比重相较21Q4环比提升0.02pct。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5c1406235cd32950109ab7b353e8b8d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"370\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2、企业年金&amp;职业年金：二季度增量预计200亿元</b></p><p><b>年金2022年二季度增量预计200亿元。</b>截至2022Q1，全国企业年金实际运作金额已达2.61万亿元，同比增速14%。若保持14%增速，2022年底有望达到2.96万亿元。近几年企业年金股票投资占比在7%左右，假设2022年维持不变，2022年增量预计248亿元，二季度增量预计达到62亿元。截至2021年12月，全国职业年金基金投资运营规模超过1.79万亿元，较2020年增加7900亿元，预计后续每年增加7900亿元，参考年金股票投资比例约7%，2022全年增量为553亿，二季度增量预计达到138亿元。加总来看，年金2022年二季度增量预计200亿元。</p><p><b>3、养老金：二季度增量预计43亿元</b></p><p><b>基本养老金2022年二季度增量预计43亿元。</b>截至2021年12月，全国所有省份基本养老金运营规模达到1.46万亿元，同比增长4.7%。基本养老金也是由社保理事会管理，参考社保基金25%股票配置，假设基本养老金25%股票配置比例，假设2022年底基本养老金运营规模维持4.7%的同比增速，则2022全年增量预计170亿元，二季度增量预计43亿元。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3f161268069513c69e5285e08118c4c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"365\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>十、散户：5月开户环比下降</b></p><p><b>5月新增投资者数量120万人，环比减少4.30%。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efe0c376a2c74161e2217d3d64ed394f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"621\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>十一、产业资本：减持压力有限，但解禁市值6月起抬升</b></p><p><b>产业资本净减持幅度仍处于较低水平，减持压力不大。</b>截至6月21日，今年5月以来产业资本净减持共437亿元，其中5月、6月分别净减持202亿元、235亿元，净减持压力较4月有所抬升，不过净减持绝对数值仍处于2020年以来较低水平，减持压力不大。回顾历史，往往在市场表现较好、大幅上涨后，产业资本减持压力较大，比如2020年7月、2020年11月、2021年11月等。当前市场经历过大幅下跌、处于低位区间时，短期来看市场净减持压力预计有限。同时，限售解禁方面，今年6-9月的月度解禁市值较前期明显抬升，解禁压力环比预计加大。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/803d0be31fb834fe7bd3833e64d9274f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"372\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>从行业结构来看，电子、银行和电力设备等行业面临的资金流出压力相对较大。</b>年初以来，医药生物、基础化工、电力设备、电子和计算机等行业遭到减仓的市值居前。解禁压力方面，今年6月至12月解禁市值居前的行业为电子、银行、电力设备、医药生物和基础化工。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89c126609a8b6750e026d21c7c0c24e0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"622\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8140503f4ca07d72c6e5702ebfd27096\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"625\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>风险提示</b></p><p><b>1、历史经验和指标可能存在失效风险；2、不同区间统计可能存在结论差异风险；3、因数据不完备导致计算结果与实际结果存在误差的风险。</b></p></body></html>","source":"ywhs","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>11类资金：哪些在加仓？后续怎么看？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n11类资金：哪些在加仓？后续怎么看？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-06-25 09:11 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/QPCJXhs4ip0bsNsfGZTujA><strong>尧望后势</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>引言：近期市场持续回暖，市场成交维持万亿元以上，市场呈现出增量资金入市的迹象。那么近期哪些资金在加仓？后续怎么看？本报告系统梳理了近期北上、公募、私募、保险、两融、产业资本、固收+产品、银行理财等11类资金的5月以来的流入流出情况，供投资者参考。核心结论：资金面仍处于存量博弈，但边际向好5月以来资金面存量博弈的格局仍未完全打破，但边际进一步改善。5月以来市场行情明显回暖，北向资金流入大幅提速、新发...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/QPCJXhs4ip0bsNsfGZTujA\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd680cd945fd32917c8ece66ec685e5f","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/QPCJXhs4ip0bsNsfGZTujA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147735251","content_text":"引言：近期市场持续回暖，市场成交维持万亿元以上，市场呈现出增量资金入市的迹象。那么近期哪些资金在加仓？后续怎么看？本报告系统梳理了近期北上、公募、私募、保险、两融、产业资本、固收+产品、银行理财等11类资金的5月以来的流入流出情况，供投资者参考。核心结论：资金面仍处于存量博弈，但边际向好5月以来资金面存量博弈的格局仍未完全打破，但边际进一步改善。5月以来市场行情明显回暖，北向资金流入大幅提速、新发基金小幅回暖、私募股票多头仓位有所提升、两融资金转为净流入。但同时，本周北上资金流入速度有所放缓、新发基金规模仍处于历史低位、存量基金仓位小幅回落、私募加仓幅度有限、绝对收益资金仓位仍处于历史低位。总结来看，市场仍处于存量博弈，但边际上较前期显著改善。1、北上资金5月以来流入提速。5月中下旬开始北上净流入明显提速，有5天单日流入超百亿元，且配置盘、交易盘同步流入提速。不过需要注意到，本周以来北上资金连续三天流出，主要是前期大幅流入的交易盘转为流出，可能对短期资金面有所扰动。拉长时间看，国内基本面持续修复下，中国权益资产仍具备显著优势，后续有望持续吸引外资回归常态化配置。2、偏股公募基金发行自5月下旬开始有所回暖，但存量基金仓位回落。从周度数据上看，5月下旬开始偏股基金新发规模已经出现回暖。结合历史经验来看，新发基金份额往往与基金过去一个季度收益率高度相关，当前该收益率已经转正，新发基金份额有望迎来回升。不过，公募基金并非近期加仓主力，5月市场回升以来偏股基金股票仓位反而回落。3、市场回暖后固收+产品面临的业绩压力持续减缓，赎回压力减轻。当前固收+股票仓位处于近两年较低水平，进一步减仓空间有限。随着5月以来市场回暖，固收+产品的业绩压力持续减缓，预计赎回压力也逐步减轻。4、保险资金4月净流出缩窄，当前股票仓位处于历史底部水平。4月保险资金净流出缩窄，且仓位水平已进一步回落至历史底部区间。因此，后续保险资金继续降低仓位的空间有限，反而近期加仓意愿有所提升。5、私募股票多头策略仓位5月以来整体回升，不过6月初前后有所减仓。5月市场反弹后私募股票多头跟随反弹加仓，不过6月初前后有所减仓。当前私募多头仓位水平仍然处于较低分位，后续仓位提升的空间依然较大。6、两融资金5月以来转为净流入，成交活跃度逐步回暖。由于其“顺势交易”的特点，两融资金5余额以来转为净流入，且6月净流入进一步提速。两融余额随着市场已经企稳回升，且成交活跃度较前期逐步回暖。一、北上资金：6月流入再提速，配置盘交易盘同步加仓今年6月1日至21日北上资金净流入提升至479亿元，交易盘与配置盘同步加仓。6月初以来，虽然海外加息及衰退预期仍有扰动，但随着中国经济快速修复，人民币汇率由贬转升，中国市场较海外逐步显现出“比较优势”，吸引北上资金流入再提速。截至6月21日，6月北上资金净流入479亿元，净流入金额较5月提升310亿元，年初以来北向资金转为净流入467亿元（该数据自6月1日起转为净流入）。拆分来看，6月配置盘净流入309亿元，交易盘净流入154亿元，两类资金加仓步伐同步提速。行业配置方面，截至6月21日，北上资金5月以来净流入食品饮料、银行、电力设备、基础化工、煤炭行业较多，净流出房地产、钢铁、有色金属、轻工制造、电子行业较多。拆分来看，配置盘5月以来净流入电力设备、食品饮料、银行、机械设备、煤炭行业居多，净流出房地产、有色金属、钢铁、医药生物、家用电器行业居多；交易盘净流入食品饮料、银行、医药生物、交通运输、家用电器行业居多，净流出电力设备、电子、机械设备、房地产、钢铁居多。个股层面上，截至6月21日，今年5月以来净流入居前的个股有伊利股份、贵州茅台、招商银行、东方雨虹、中国中免等，净流出居多的个股有宁德时代、海螺水泥、天赐材料、三花智控、新宙邦等。二、公募基金：5月下旬新发行回暖，但基金仓位有所回落5月下旬以来公募基金发行规模回暖。从偏股基金（股票型+混合型）的口径来看，截至6月21日，今年6月新发偏股基金规模为175亿元，已经超过5月整月发行。尽管基金发行绝对规模仍处于历史低位，但5月下旬以来周度发行数据已有所回暖。老基金申赎方面，4月偏股老基金获净赎回582亿元，赎回规模环比有所增大，但赎回规模并不大。新发基金规模往往与基金过去一个季度收益率高度相关，当下该收益率已经转正，新发基金份额有望逐步迎来回升。从历史复盘角度看，新发基金（股票型+混合型）成立份额与基金重仓股前一季度的收益率具有较高正相关性。截至6月21日，基金重仓（季调）指数过去一个季度收益率已经转正至1.0%，新发基金（股票型+混合型）成立份额也拐头向上，基金收益率若继续回升有望推动新发基金成立份额逐步迎来回升。从存量基金仓位来看， 5月市场回升以来开放式基金的股票仓位有所回落，普通股票型与偏股混合型仓位降低较多。根据Wind测算，截至6月21日，5月初以来全部开放式基金股票仓位环比下降0.58%至64.20%，普通股票型、偏股混合型和灵活配置型基金的股票仓位分别环比变动-0.80%、-1.03%、-0.28%至86.61%、80.79%、60.46%，其中普通股票型和偏股混合型基金降仓的幅度相对较大。5月以来，虽然市场较前期明显回暖，但公募基金并未显著加仓，并非近期加仓主力。三、固收+产品：Q1股票仓位环比下降，赎回压力缓解固收+产品22Q1规模维持在2.1万亿元水平，股票仓位环比下降1.4pct至14.3%。截至今年3月底，根据wind固收+基金分类，固收+产品净资产合计突破了2.1万亿元、扩容至21004亿元，股票投资占比降至14.3%，较去年底减少1.4个百分点。“固收+”是指以绝对收益为投资目标，在市场大幅回撤时，基金管理人可能会通过降低股票仓位来控制回撤、保证一定的绝对收益。在一季度市场回撤较大的背景下，固收+产品降低股票仓位。固收+产品回撤幅度明显降低，股票仓位处于较低水平，随着市场企稳、后续加仓意愿或有望提升。由于年初至今市场回调较大，导致部分固收+产品回撤较大，市场普遍担心被动赎回引发负反馈。截止今年6月21日，固收+产品今年收益率中位数已经回升至-0.64%左右，市场回暖后收益率回撤的幅度较前期明显缩小，引发负反馈的概率较小。当前有18.5%的固收+产品收益率低于-3%，仍存在一定业绩压力，不过该比例较5月底的30.9%继续回落，业绩压力持续缓解。考虑到当前市场已经逐步回暖，且固收+产品股票仓位已经处于近两年较低水平，后续加仓意愿有望提升。四、$Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF(PSFF)$：5月以来转为净赎回，宽基ETF遭赎回居多5月以来ETF净赎回91亿份，其中消费ETF净申购居首，宽基ETF净赎回居多。截至6月21日，5月以来ETF净赎回91亿份，其中宽基（-182亿份）、科技（+30亿份）、先进制造（+3亿份）、消费（+80亿份）、金融（-22亿份）、周期（+10亿份）、其他主题（-10亿份），消费ETF净申购居首，宽基ETF净赎回居多。今年以来ETF净申购1327亿份，其中宽基（+210亿份）、科技（+206亿份）、先进制造（+64亿份）、消费（+177亿份）、金融（+14亿份）、周期（+113亿份）、其他主题（+29亿份），宽基、科技和消费净申购居多。从历史来看，ETF流动往往与市场反向，5月以来市场明显回暖，今年以来持续加仓的ETF转为流出。五、保险资金：股票仓位处于历史底部水平今年4月保险资金净流出缩窄，股票和基金仓位处于历史低位。截止今年4月，险资运用余额达到23.63万亿元，其中股票和基金投资规模为2.81万亿元，占比为11.89%，较上月分别减少459亿元、减少0.24%，当前仓位水平已经处于2016年以来的1.3%分位的底部区间，基本与18年底的仓位水平持平。因此，后续保险资金继续降低仓位的空间有限，近期加仓意愿提升。六、银行理财：当前赎回压力预计有限2021年末银行理财规模达到29万亿元，其中权益类资产预计达11600亿元。一方面，根据中国理财网公布的数据，截至2021年12月，银行理财达到29万亿元，同比增长12.14%。另一方面，2021年12月银行理财权益类资产占比仅有3.30%、公募基金占比4.00%，直接持股比例仅为2%至5%，权益类占比仍有非常大的提升空间，若按4.0%占比估计，截至2021年底，银行理财持有A股市场股票市值为11600亿元。当前理财产品的赎回压力有限。在Wind记录的27130支银行理财产品中，我们筛选出9413家5月以来公布过最新净值、投资范围涵盖股票或基金的理财产品，且其中有6681家理财产品是今年1月1日前成立的。据统计，今年以来成立的这6681家理财产品中，共有1772支理财产品年初以来收益率为负，其中有630支年初以来亏损超过2%，有346支年初以来亏损超过3%。净值方面，在9413家理财产品中，当前共有718支理财产品净值低于1。5月市场回暖以来，理财产品的净值和收益率压力均已得到明显缓解。由于银行理财产品多属于中低风险投资品种，因此当理财产品收益低于-2%或净值低于1时，产品可能面临赎回压力，目前此类产品占比回落至约10.5%，赎回压力有限，且较前期继续缓解。七、私募基金：5月以来股票多头仓位有所回升5月以来股票私募多头仓位变动整体回升，不过6月初前后有所减仓。截至今年5月底，私募证券投资基金资产净值达57888亿元，环比基本持平, 基金只数达到83013只。从股票私募多头仓位变动（估算）上看，截至今年6月10日，股票私募多头的仓位比例较5月初提升0.48个百分点至65.58%，仓位水平回升至三年滚动28.6%的分位数。不过，5月29日至6月10日，股票私募多头仓位有所回落，下降1.67个百分点。今年以来私募整体大幅降低仓位，当前仓位水平仍然处于较低水平，但近期市场回暖之下，私募加仓意愿整体有所提升。股票策略阳光私募产品清仓压力有限，且较5月继续缓解。根据私募0.7清仓线、0.8警戒线来看，在21287支5月以来披露最新净值数据的股票策略阳光私募中，共有1051支净值低于0.7清仓线，占比达4.9%，同时有1215支净值处于0.7至0.8之间，占比达到5.7%，两者占比较5月均继续回落，清仓压力有所缓解。当前有89.4%的股票策略阳光私募产品净值均处于0.8以上，私募清仓压力有限。八、两融资金：5月以来转为净流入，成交活跃度提升5月以来两融转为净流入474亿元，成交活跃度有所回暖。从两融净流出规模来看，截至6月21日，5月以来两融净流入474亿元，其中5月、6月分别净流入152亿元、321亿元，今年累计净流出2168亿元。从两融余额来看，6月21日两融余额回升至1.57万亿元，较4月底增加558亿元。从两融成交来看，截至6月21日，6月成交占比已经回升至8.08%，较4月、5月分别增加1.31pct、0.79 pct，两融成交活跃度较前期逐步回暖。从行业结构来看，5月以来两融流入电子、有色金属、基础化工、机械和非银行金融等行业居多。截至6月20日，5月以来两融资金净流入电子、有色金属、基础化工、机械和非银行金融行业居前，仅流出医药、消费者服务、计算机、钢铁和农林牧渔行业。当前两融余额较高的前四大行业分别是医药、电子、非银行金融和电力设备及新能源等。九、养老体系：预计保持稳定流入态势1、社保基金：二季度增量预计227亿元社保基金2022年二季度增量预计227亿元。2020年社保基金资产总额2.9万亿元，同比增加11.2%。假设维持11.2%增速，则2022年底社保资产有望达到3.61万亿元。根据基金业协会，2016年底社保配置A股比例21.4%，假设25%占比，2022年全年增量预计909亿元，二季度预计仍将流入227亿元。社保基金Q1重仓股市值占A股的比重小幅提升。从持股前十市值这一重仓口径上看，截至22Q1末，社保基金重仓持股市值达3387亿元，持仓市值环比缩水，但重仓持股市值占A股比重相较21Q4环比提升0.02pct。2、企业年金&职业年金：二季度增量预计200亿元年金2022年二季度增量预计200亿元。截至2022Q1，全国企业年金实际运作金额已达2.61万亿元，同比增速14%。若保持14%增速，2022年底有望达到2.96万亿元。近几年企业年金股票投资占比在7%左右，假设2022年维持不变，2022年增量预计248亿元，二季度增量预计达到62亿元。截至2021年12月，全国职业年金基金投资运营规模超过1.79万亿元，较2020年增加7900亿元，预计后续每年增加7900亿元，参考年金股票投资比例约7%，2022全年增量为553亿，二季度增量预计达到138亿元。加总来看，年金2022年二季度增量预计200亿元。3、养老金：二季度增量预计43亿元基本养老金2022年二季度增量预计43亿元。截至2021年12月，全国所有省份基本养老金运营规模达到1.46万亿元，同比增长4.7%。基本养老金也是由社保理事会管理，参考社保基金25%股票配置，假设基本养老金25%股票配置比例，假设2022年底基本养老金运营规模维持4.7%的同比增速，则2022全年增量预计170亿元，二季度增量预计43亿元。十、散户：5月开户环比下降5月新增投资者数量120万人，环比减少4.30%。十一、产业资本：减持压力有限，但解禁市值6月起抬升产业资本净减持幅度仍处于较低水平，减持压力不大。截至6月21日，今年5月以来产业资本净减持共437亿元，其中5月、6月分别净减持202亿元、235亿元，净减持压力较4月有所抬升，不过净减持绝对数值仍处于2020年以来较低水平，减持压力不大。回顾历史，往往在市场表现较好、大幅上涨后，产业资本减持压力较大，比如2020年7月、2020年11月、2021年11月等。当前市场经历过大幅下跌、处于低位区间时，短期来看市场净减持压力预计有限。同时，限售解禁方面，今年6-9月的月度解禁市值较前期明显抬升，解禁压力环比预计加大。从行业结构来看，电子、银行和电力设备等行业面临的资金流出压力相对较大。年初以来，医药生物、基础化工、电力设备、电子和计算机等行业遭到减仓的市值居前。解禁压力方面，今年6月至12月解禁市值居前的行业为电子、银行、电力设备、医药生物和基础化工。风险提示1、历史经验和指标可能存在失效风险；2、不同区间统计可能存在结论差异风险；3、因数据不完备导致计算结果与实际结果存在误差的风险。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":995,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":683824656,"gmtCreate":1656209804179,"gmtModify":1704864236141,"author":{"id":"4097895666271610","authorId":"4097895666271610","name":"Juliasheng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88669bb70cf7b8dfa2de1f420d8237c2","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4097895666271610","authorIdStr":"4097895666271610"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑] 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10:02","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特斯拉屹立不倒，“大空头”认怂：马斯克会玩","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2185849804","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"投资者可能“稳赚”，但马斯克永远“不亏”。","content":"<p>本月，在马斯克大幅减持之际，闻讯而来的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>支持者们“跑步进场”，而疲惫的做空者大部分已经离场。</p>\n<p>专业数据提供商S3 Partners的数据显示，<b>特斯拉的空头头寸占该公司可交易股票总数的比例，已从去年初的19.6%降至3.3%。同期，做空特斯拉的股票数量减少了近80%，至2700万股。</b></p>\n<p>浑水资本创始人、著名做空者卡森·布洛克（Carson Block）表示，他理解人们选择做空特斯拉的原因，他为这些人辩称，“从原则上讲，他们没有错”。</p>\n<blockquote>\n “但另一边是埃隆·马斯克， \n <b>他比我见过的任何人都更擅长玩上市公司的游戏</b>。”\n</blockquote>\n<p>马斯克的非正统领导风格使这家成立18年的公司成为做空者的宠儿。然而，随着特斯拉的迅速崛起，这些投资者中的许多人现在已经退出了他们的头寸。</p>\n<p>因“大空头”而出名的基金经理迈克尔·伯里（Michael Burry）上季度退出了对特斯拉的看跌。他长期以来一直押注特斯拉下跌，在一条现已删除的推文中称，<b>特斯拉受益于“大规模的政府和电力补贴”</b>。</p>\n<h2>有人离场 有人坚守</h2>\n<p>并不是所有的做空者都认输了。特斯拉的大幅反弹，意味着它仍然是美国股市空头们的最大目标之一。</p>\n<p>尽管空头头寸减少，但特斯拉股价自去年年初以来已上涨逾1200%，这意味着同期的空头头寸（相当于被做空的股票数量乘以每股价格）已从略低于110亿美元增至280亿美元。</p>\n<p>英国对冲基金经理Crispin Odey继续押注做空特斯拉。他最近在一封致投资者的信中写道，<b>“许多股票的估值现在荒唐可笑”</b>，特斯拉在这方面已经“达到了不朽的程度”。</p>\n<p>然而，他补充说，<b>除非在固定收益市场出现抛售，否则特斯拉的股价不太可能在短期内下跌。</b> “在我们的债券出现适当突破之前，股市不会真正走下坡路。”</p>\n<p>瑞士金融集团Mirabaud科技研究主管Neil Campling继续押注特斯拉下跌，因为他对“木头姐”Cathie Wood的方舟创新Ark Innovation ETF持“非常负面”的看法。</p>\n<p>尽管该ETF持有特斯拉的股份，但其股价今年已下跌约8%。“如果不是他们押注特斯拉，他们的表现会更差，”他说。</p>\n<h2>推特“市值管理”？</h2>\n<p>马斯克也度过了忙碌的一个月。从他的推特上就可以看出。</p>\n<p>与联合国官员和参议员互呛、发起投票、吟诗、抛售股票......在他承诺卖出股票仅一周后，特斯拉就被<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>起诉未能在2018年支付1.62亿美元。</p>\n<p>自马斯克本轮抛售渐进尾声时，特斯拉股价开始了反弹，上涨了约14%，在过去30天中上涨了30%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/807e219f598aaf31d8afed2d9f54994e\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>然而，有迹象表明，马斯克的网络冒险行为开始让一些投资者感到不快。</p>\n<p>在美国社交媒体网站Reddit的“r/wallstreetbets”讨论市场交易的板块，有一条评论总结了目前的情绪：</p>\n<blockquote>\n “特斯拉的风险因素……竞争：5%，供应链/生产：5%， \n <b>埃隆·马斯克愚蠢的推文：90%</b>。”\n</blockquote>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特斯拉屹立不倒，“大空头”认怂：马斯克会玩</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特斯拉屹立不倒，“大空头”认怂：马斯克会玩\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-11-23 10:02 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3645578><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>本月，在马斯克大幅减持之际，闻讯而来的特斯拉支持者们“跑步进场”，而疲惫的做空者大部分已经离场。\n专业数据提供商S3 Partners的数据显示，特斯拉的空头头寸占该公司可交易股票总数的比例，已从去年初的19.6%降至3.3%。同期，做空特斯拉的股票数量减少了近80%，至2700万股。\n浑水资本创始人、著名做空者卡森·布洛克（Carson Block）表示，他理解人们选择做空特斯拉的原因，他为这些...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3645578\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e2e0725ece1c0521e645686ab640440","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3645578","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2185849804","content_text":"本月，在马斯克大幅减持之际，闻讯而来的特斯拉支持者们“跑步进场”，而疲惫的做空者大部分已经离场。\n专业数据提供商S3 Partners的数据显示，特斯拉的空头头寸占该公司可交易股票总数的比例，已从去年初的19.6%降至3.3%。同期，做空特斯拉的股票数量减少了近80%，至2700万股。\n浑水资本创始人、著名做空者卡森·布洛克（Carson Block）表示，他理解人们选择做空特斯拉的原因，他为这些人辩称，“从原则上讲，他们没有错”。\n\n “但另一边是埃隆·马斯克， \n 他比我见过的任何人都更擅长玩上市公司的游戏。”\n\n马斯克的非正统领导风格使这家成立18年的公司成为做空者的宠儿。然而，随着特斯拉的迅速崛起，这些投资者中的许多人现在已经退出了他们的头寸。\n因“大空头”而出名的基金经理迈克尔·伯里（Michael Burry）上季度退出了对特斯拉的看跌。他长期以来一直押注特斯拉下跌，在一条现已删除的推文中称，特斯拉受益于“大规模的政府和电力补贴”。\n有人离场 有人坚守\n并不是所有的做空者都认输了。特斯拉的大幅反弹，意味着它仍然是美国股市空头们的最大目标之一。\n尽管空头头寸减少，但特斯拉股价自去年年初以来已上涨逾1200%，这意味着同期的空头头寸（相当于被做空的股票数量乘以每股价格）已从略低于110亿美元增至280亿美元。\n英国对冲基金经理Crispin Odey继续押注做空特斯拉。他最近在一封致投资者的信中写道，“许多股票的估值现在荒唐可笑”，特斯拉在这方面已经“达到了不朽的程度”。\n然而，他补充说，除非在固定收益市场出现抛售，否则特斯拉的股价不太可能在短期内下跌。 “在我们的债券出现适当突破之前，股市不会真正走下坡路。”\n瑞士金融集团Mirabaud科技研究主管Neil Campling继续押注特斯拉下跌，因为他对“木头姐”Cathie Wood的方舟创新Ark Innovation ETF持“非常负面”的看法。\n尽管该ETF持有特斯拉的股份，但其股价今年已下跌约8%。“如果不是他们押注特斯拉，他们的表现会更差，”他说。\n推特“市值管理”？\n马斯克也度过了忙碌的一个月。从他的推特上就可以看出。\n与联合国官员和参议员互呛、发起投票、吟诗、抛售股票......在他承诺卖出股票仅一周后，特斯拉就被摩根大通起诉未能在2018年支付1.62亿美元。\n自马斯克本轮抛售渐进尾声时，特斯拉股价开始了反弹，上涨了约14%，在过去30天中上涨了30%。\n\n然而，有迹象表明，马斯克的网络冒险行为开始让一些投资者感到不快。\n在美国社交媒体网站Reddit的“r/wallstreetbets”讨论市场交易的板块，有一条评论总结了目前的情绪：\n\n “特斯拉的风险因素……竞争：5%，供应链/生产：5%， \n 埃隆·马斯克愚蠢的推文：90%。”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1221,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":844988371,"gmtCreate":1636383267793,"gmtModify":1636383275761,"author":{"id":"4097895666271610","authorId":"4097895666271610","name":"Juliasheng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88669bb70cf7b8dfa2de1f420d8237c2","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4097895666271610","authorIdStr":"4097895666271610"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/844988371","repostId":"850756569","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":850756569,"gmtCreate":1634631211448,"gmtModify":1635853120757,"author":{"id":"36984908995200","authorId":"36984908995200","name":"小虎活动","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e396d03155923b283948d2dec9191f8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"36984908995200","authorIdStr":"36984908995200"},"themes":[],"title":"[Halloween Game] Trade or Treat!","htmlText":"Hello, dear Tigers!&nbsp; Happy&nbsp;Halloween!&nbsp;🎃🎃🎃&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/halloween/?lang=en_US#/\" target=\"_blank\">Tap&nbsp;here&nbsp;to&nbsp;play the Halloween game,&nbsp;and&nbsp;you&nbsp;stand&nbsp;a&nbsp;chance&nbsp;to win various rewards!&nbsp;</a> Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1.&nbsp;How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'.&nbsp; 2.&nbsp;How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","listText":"Hello, dear Tigers!&nbsp; Happy&nbsp;Halloween!&nbsp;🎃🎃🎃&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/halloween/?lang=en_US#/\" target=\"_blank\">Tap&nbsp;here&nbsp;to&nbsp;play the Halloween game,&nbsp;and&nbsp;you&nbsp;stand&nbsp;a&nbsp;chance&nbsp;to win various rewards!&nbsp;</a> Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1.&nbsp;How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'.&nbsp; 2.&nbsp;How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","text":"Hello, dear Tigers! Happy Halloween! 🎃🎃🎃 Tap here to play the Halloween game, and you stand a chance to win various rewards! Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1. How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'. 2. How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/850756569","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":853,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":842486373,"gmtCreate":1636217495998,"gmtModify":1636217496096,"author":{"id":"4097895666271610","authorId":"4097895666271610","name":"Juliasheng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88669bb70cf7b8dfa2de1f420d8237c2","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4097895666271610","authorIdStr":"4097895666271610"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/842486373","repostId":"850756569","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":850756569,"gmtCreate":1634631211448,"gmtModify":1635853120757,"author":{"id":"36984908995200","authorId":"36984908995200","name":"小虎活动","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e396d03155923b283948d2dec9191f8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"36984908995200","authorIdStr":"36984908995200"},"themes":[],"title":"[Halloween Game] Trade or Treat!","htmlText":"Hello, dear Tigers!&nbsp; Happy&nbsp;Halloween!&nbsp;🎃🎃🎃&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/halloween/?lang=en_US#/\" target=\"_blank\">Tap&nbsp;here&nbsp;to&nbsp;play the Halloween game,&nbsp;and&nbsp;you&nbsp;stand&nbsp;a&nbsp;chance&nbsp;to win various rewards!&nbsp;</a> Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1.&nbsp;How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'.&nbsp; 2.&nbsp;How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","listText":"Hello, dear Tigers!&nbsp; Happy&nbsp;Halloween!&nbsp;🎃🎃🎃&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/halloween/?lang=en_US#/\" target=\"_blank\">Tap&nbsp;here&nbsp;to&nbsp;play the Halloween game,&nbsp;and&nbsp;you&nbsp;stand&nbsp;a&nbsp;chance&nbsp;to win various rewards!&nbsp;</a> Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1.&nbsp;How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'.&nbsp; 2.&nbsp;How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","text":"Hello, dear Tigers! Happy Halloween! 🎃🎃🎃 Tap here to play the Halloween game, and you stand a chance to win various rewards! Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1. How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'. 2. How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/850756569","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1178,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":846592471,"gmtCreate":1636093753816,"gmtModify":1636093753908,"author":{"id":"4097895666271610","authorId":"4097895666271610","name":"Juliasheng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88669bb70cf7b8dfa2de1f420d8237c2","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4097895666271610","authorIdStr":"4097895666271610"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"躺赢组合","listText":"躺赢组合","text":"躺赢组合","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/846592471","repostId":"1189655201","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":958,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":846507470,"gmtCreate":1636092840742,"gmtModify":1636093121591,"author":{"id":"4097895666271610","authorId":"4097895666271610","name":"Juliasheng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88669bb70cf7b8dfa2de1f420d8237c2","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4097895666271610","authorIdStr":"4097895666271610"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/846507470","repostId":"850756569","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":850756569,"gmtCreate":1634631211448,"gmtModify":1635853120757,"author":{"id":"36984908995200","authorId":"36984908995200","name":"小虎活动","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e396d03155923b283948d2dec9191f8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"36984908995200","authorIdStr":"36984908995200"},"themes":[],"title":"[Halloween Game] Trade or Treat!","htmlText":"Hello, dear Tigers!&nbsp; Happy&nbsp;Halloween!&nbsp;🎃🎃🎃&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/halloween/?lang=en_US#/\" target=\"_blank\">Tap&nbsp;here&nbsp;to&nbsp;play the Halloween game,&nbsp;and&nbsp;you&nbsp;stand&nbsp;a&nbsp;chance&nbsp;to win various rewards!&nbsp;</a> Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1.&nbsp;How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'.&nbsp; 2.&nbsp;How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","listText":"Hello, dear Tigers!&nbsp; Happy&nbsp;Halloween!&nbsp;🎃🎃🎃&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/halloween/?lang=en_US#/\" target=\"_blank\">Tap&nbsp;here&nbsp;to&nbsp;play the Halloween game,&nbsp;and&nbsp;you&nbsp;stand&nbsp;a&nbsp;chance&nbsp;to win various rewards!&nbsp;</a> Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1.&nbsp;How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'.&nbsp; 2.&nbsp;How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","text":"Hello, dear Tigers! Happy Halloween! 🎃🎃🎃 Tap here to play the Halloween game, and you stand a chance to win various rewards! Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1. How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'. 2. How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/850756569","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":319,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":846930281,"gmtCreate":1636038515971,"gmtModify":1636038516060,"author":{"id":"4097895666271610","authorId":"4097895666271610","name":"Juliasheng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88669bb70cf7b8dfa2de1f420d8237c2","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4097895666271610","authorIdStr":"4097895666271610"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/846930281","repostId":"850756569","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":850756569,"gmtCreate":1634631211448,"gmtModify":1635853120757,"author":{"id":"36984908995200","authorId":"36984908995200","name":"小虎活动","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e396d03155923b283948d2dec9191f8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"36984908995200","authorIdStr":"36984908995200"},"themes":[],"title":"[Halloween Game] Trade or Treat!","htmlText":"Hello, dear Tigers!&nbsp; Happy&nbsp;Halloween!&nbsp;🎃🎃🎃&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/halloween/?lang=en_US#/\" target=\"_blank\">Tap&nbsp;here&nbsp;to&nbsp;play the Halloween game,&nbsp;and&nbsp;you&nbsp;stand&nbsp;a&nbsp;chance&nbsp;to win various rewards!&nbsp;</a> Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1.&nbsp;How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'.&nbsp; 2.&nbsp;How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","listText":"Hello, dear Tigers!&nbsp; Happy&nbsp;Halloween!&nbsp;🎃🎃🎃&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/halloween/?lang=en_US#/\" target=\"_blank\">Tap&nbsp;here&nbsp;to&nbsp;play the Halloween game,&nbsp;and&nbsp;you&nbsp;stand&nbsp;a&nbsp;chance&nbsp;to win various rewards!&nbsp;</a> Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1.&nbsp;How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'.&nbsp; 2.&nbsp;How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","text":"Hello, dear Tigers! Happy Halloween! 🎃🎃🎃 Tap here to play the Halloween game, and you stand a chance to win various rewards! Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1. How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'. 2. How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/850756569","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":267,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":843284612,"gmtCreate":1635832762076,"gmtModify":1635832762151,"author":{"id":"4097895666271610","authorId":"4097895666271610","name":"Juliasheng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88669bb70cf7b8dfa2de1f420d8237c2","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4097895666271610","authorIdStr":"4097895666271610"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/843284612","repostId":"850756569","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":850756569,"gmtCreate":1634631211448,"gmtModify":1635853120757,"author":{"id":"36984908995200","authorId":"36984908995200","name":"小虎活动","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e396d03155923b283948d2dec9191f8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"36984908995200","authorIdStr":"36984908995200"},"themes":[],"title":"[Halloween Game] Trade or Treat!","htmlText":"Hello, dear Tigers!&nbsp; Happy&nbsp;Halloween!&nbsp;🎃🎃🎃&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/halloween/?lang=en_US#/\" target=\"_blank\">Tap&nbsp;here&nbsp;to&nbsp;play the Halloween game,&nbsp;and&nbsp;you&nbsp;stand&nbsp;a&nbsp;chance&nbsp;to win various rewards!&nbsp;</a> Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1.&nbsp;How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'.&nbsp; 2.&nbsp;How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","listText":"Hello, dear Tigers!&nbsp; Happy&nbsp;Halloween!&nbsp;🎃🎃🎃&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/halloween/?lang=en_US#/\" target=\"_blank\">Tap&nbsp;here&nbsp;to&nbsp;play the Halloween game,&nbsp;and&nbsp;you&nbsp;stand&nbsp;a&nbsp;chance&nbsp;to win various rewards!&nbsp;</a> Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1.&nbsp;How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'.&nbsp; 2.&nbsp;How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","text":"Hello, dear Tigers! Happy Halloween! 🎃🎃🎃 Tap here to play the Halloween game, and you stand a chance to win various rewards! Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1. How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'. 2. How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/850756569","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":341,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":849093766,"gmtCreate":1635697613737,"gmtModify":1635697613737,"author":{"id":"4097895666271610","authorId":"4097895666271610","name":"Juliasheng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88669bb70cf7b8dfa2de1f420d8237c2","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4097895666271610","authorIdStr":"4097895666271610"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/849093766","repostId":"850756569","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":850756569,"gmtCreate":1634631211448,"gmtModify":1635853120757,"author":{"id":"36984908995200","authorId":"36984908995200","name":"小虎活动","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e396d03155923b283948d2dec9191f8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"36984908995200","authorIdStr":"36984908995200"},"themes":[],"title":"[Halloween Game] Trade or Treat!","htmlText":"Hello, dear Tigers!&nbsp; Happy&nbsp;Halloween!&nbsp;🎃🎃🎃&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/halloween/?lang=en_US#/\" target=\"_blank\">Tap&nbsp;here&nbsp;to&nbsp;play the Halloween game,&nbsp;and&nbsp;you&nbsp;stand&nbsp;a&nbsp;chance&nbsp;to win various rewards!&nbsp;</a> Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1.&nbsp;How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'.&nbsp; 2.&nbsp;How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","listText":"Hello, dear Tigers!&nbsp; Happy&nbsp;Halloween!&nbsp;🎃🎃🎃&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/halloween/?lang=en_US#/\" target=\"_blank\">Tap&nbsp;here&nbsp;to&nbsp;play the Halloween game,&nbsp;and&nbsp;you&nbsp;stand&nbsp;a&nbsp;chance&nbsp;to win various rewards!&nbsp;</a> Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1.&nbsp;How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'.&nbsp; 2.&nbsp;How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","text":"Hello, dear Tigers! Happy Halloween! 🎃🎃🎃 Tap here to play the Halloween game, and you stand a chance to win various rewards! Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1. How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'. 2. How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/850756569","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":628,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":855843120,"gmtCreate":1635353931717,"gmtModify":1635388033771,"author":{"id":"4097895666271610","authorId":"4097895666271610","name":"Juliasheng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88669bb70cf7b8dfa2de1f420d8237c2","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4097895666271610","authorIdStr":"4097895666271610"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[呆住]&nbsp;","listText":"[呆住]&nbsp;","text":"[呆住]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/855843120","repostId":"1165563619","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":334,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":690800652,"gmtCreate":1639651023842,"gmtModify":1639651023961,"author":{"id":"4097895666271610","authorId":"4097895666271610","name":"Juliasheng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88669bb70cf7b8dfa2de1f420d8237c2","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4097895666271610","authorIdStr":"4097895666271610"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"市场多余的美元哪里去？炒股吧，股市节节攀升","listText":"市场多余的美元哪里去？炒股吧，股市节节攀升","text":"市场多余的美元哪里去？炒股吧，股市节节攀升","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/690800652","repostId":"1184042751","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1184042751","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1639635818,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1184042751?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-16 14:23","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"未来一周大戏才开始！市场短暂的接受美联储转鹰","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184042751","media":"Wind万得","summary":"2021年美联储最后一次议息会议如期举行，加速Taper，且暗示2022年将加息三次。但市场并没有被美联储突然转弯吓到，美股反而大涨以待。在Academy Securities 的 Peter Tchir 看来，这只是一种“短暂的被动接受”，真正的市场反应藏在未来一周的细节里。未来一周，市场逐渐消化美联储释放的全部信号，博弈将更加激烈。","content":"<p>2021年美联储最后一次议息会议如期举行，加速Taper，且暗示2022年将加息三次。但市场并没有被美联储突然转弯吓到，美股反而大涨以待。在Academy Securities 的 Peter Tchir 看来，这只是一种“短暂的被动接受”，真正的市场反应藏在未来一周的细节里。</p>\n<p>Peter Tchir 在最新的报告中滤清了美联储和市场各自的行为，认为两者之间的“化学反应”不能在单个交易日体现完整。</p>\n<p><b>美联储做了什么？</b></p>\n<p>一、美联储加快Taper节奏，于2022年3月中旬结束资产购买。这在市场上或多或少已经被price in。</p>\n<p>二、美联储暗示2022年加息3次，目前而言市场对此消化良好。</p>\n<p>Peter Tchir 对本次鲍威尔新闻发布会评价称，鲍威尔似乎跨越了对抗通胀和渴望增长之间的界限，“在我看来，我是有偏见的，我发现他以一种过去从未有过的方式，向全国而不是金融市场发表演讲。也许他是在试图安抚华盛顿，同时坚持自己的立场？这似乎是有道理的，但我不确定这是怎么回事。”</p>\n<p>他继续补充称：“我认为鲍威尔新闻发布会最有力的观点是，需要很长的增长周期才能真正降低失业率（增加劳动力参与）。”</p>\n<p><b>市场做了什么？</b></p>\n<p>博弈之后，风险资产在美联储新闻发布会开始时表现得非常好，新闻发布会结束后，风险资产正在飙升。</p>\n<p>比特币从46650美元涨到了49000美元。理论上，美联储立场鹰派，比特币表现应该不佳。但这一次，比特币却疯狂上涨。与此同时，VIX 已经从上周高点回落。</p>\n<p>债券市场的平静也对风险资产产生了积极地影响。美联储议息会议结果公布后，2年期美债收益率从66个基点飙升至71个基点，随后回落至68个基点，表明该美联储的决定已被定价。10年期美债收益率最初下降，之后从1.45%上升到1.47%，曲线正在经历更多的平行变化（而不是大幅变平/变陡）。</p>\n<p>市场已经对美联储的言行定价了多少？Peter Tchir表示，这很难讲，但从比特币来看，做空者寡，做多者众。也许自2018年以来，市场已经习惯了美联储“言辞严厉，行为温和鸽派”；风险资产在美联储议息会议公布后大涨，这是市场希望看到的，但要维持这种状态需要更加鸽派的美联储。</p>\n<p>现在的市场状况有点类似于“每个人都知道美联储已经变得鹰派，但每个人都认为美联储不会这样行动。”全球供应链改善之前，消费者支出是否已经发生改变？公司如何保证库存和顺利生产？市场多头恐怕已经忽略了这些问题。</p>\n<p>Peter Tchir 进一步分析道，信贷应该是正常的，考虑到美联储今天的基调，债券市场的情况可能是正确的（可能会有加息，这将抑制增长）。虽然美联储仍在增加其资产负债表，但已接近尾声，而且美联储似乎并不急于实际缩减资产负债表（鲍威尔确实通过声明资产负债表将保持来安抚市场）。事实上，美联储资产负债表的流动性，即扩张和缩减对市场来说很重要，尘封不动的存量没有那么重要。</p>\n<p>Peter Tchir 总结称，因此，市场已经出现的小波动是令人不安的，预计风险资产即将回吐一部分近期的涨幅，最快可能在接下来的一个交易日就会出现。未来一周，市场逐渐消化美联储释放的全部信号，博弈将更加激烈。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>未来一周大戏才开始！市场短暂的接受美联储转鹰</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ 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#494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n未来一周大戏才开始！市场短暂的接受美联储转鹰\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-12-16 14:23</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>2021年美联储最后一次议息会议如期举行，加速Taper，且暗示2022年将加息三次。但市场并没有被美联储突然转弯吓到，美股反而大涨以待。在Academy Securities 的 Peter Tchir 看来，这只是一种“短暂的被动接受”，真正的市场反应藏在未来一周的细节里。</p>\n<p>Peter Tchir 在最新的报告中滤清了美联储和市场各自的行为，认为两者之间的“化学反应”不能在单个交易日体现完整。</p>\n<p><b>美联储做了什么？</b></p>\n<p>一、美联储加快Taper节奏，于2022年3月中旬结束资产购买。这在市场上或多或少已经被price in。</p>\n<p>二、美联储暗示2022年加息3次，目前而言市场对此消化良好。</p>\n<p>Peter Tchir 对本次鲍威尔新闻发布会评价称，鲍威尔似乎跨越了对抗通胀和渴望增长之间的界限，“在我看来，我是有偏见的，我发现他以一种过去从未有过的方式，向全国而不是金融市场发表演讲。也许他是在试图安抚华盛顿，同时坚持自己的立场？这似乎是有道理的，但我不确定这是怎么回事。”</p>\n<p>他继续补充称：“我认为鲍威尔新闻发布会最有力的观点是，需要很长的增长周期才能真正降低失业率（增加劳动力参与）。”</p>\n<p><b>市场做了什么？</b></p>\n<p>博弈之后，风险资产在美联储新闻发布会开始时表现得非常好，新闻发布会结束后，风险资产正在飙升。</p>\n<p>比特币从46650美元涨到了49000美元。理论上，美联储立场鹰派，比特币表现应该不佳。但这一次，比特币却疯狂上涨。与此同时，VIX 已经从上周高点回落。</p>\n<p>债券市场的平静也对风险资产产生了积极地影响。美联储议息会议结果公布后，2年期美债收益率从66个基点飙升至71个基点，随后回落至68个基点，表明该美联储的决定已被定价。10年期美债收益率最初下降，之后从1.45%上升到1.47%，曲线正在经历更多的平行变化（而不是大幅变平/变陡）。</p>\n<p>市场已经对美联储的言行定价了多少？Peter Tchir表示，这很难讲，但从比特币来看，做空者寡，做多者众。也许自2018年以来，市场已经习惯了美联储“言辞严厉，行为温和鸽派”；风险资产在美联储议息会议公布后大涨，这是市场希望看到的，但要维持这种状态需要更加鸽派的美联储。</p>\n<p>现在的市场状况有点类似于“每个人都知道美联储已经变得鹰派，但每个人都认为美联储不会这样行动。”全球供应链改善之前，消费者支出是否已经发生改变？公司如何保证库存和顺利生产？市场多头恐怕已经忽略了这些问题。</p>\n<p>Peter Tchir 进一步分析道，信贷应该是正常的，考虑到美联储今天的基调，债券市场的情况可能是正确的（可能会有加息，这将抑制增长）。虽然美联储仍在增加其资产负债表，但已接近尾声，而且美联储似乎并不急于实际缩减资产负债表（鲍威尔确实通过声明资产负债表将保持来安抚市场）。事实上，美联储资产负债表的流动性，即扩张和缩减对市场来说很重要，尘封不动的存量没有那么重要。</p>\n<p>Peter Tchir 总结称，因此，市场已经出现的小波动是令人不安的，预计风险资产即将回吐一部分近期的涨幅，最快可能在接下来的一个交易日就会出现。未来一周，市场逐渐消化美联储释放的全部信号，博弈将更加激烈。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd680cd945fd32917c8ece66ec685e5f","relate_stocks":{"513500":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","DOG":"道指反向ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","OEX":"标普100","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","BK4504":"桥水持仓","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184042751","content_text":"2021年美联储最后一次议息会议如期举行，加速Taper，且暗示2022年将加息三次。但市场并没有被美联储突然转弯吓到，美股反而大涨以待。在Academy Securities 的 Peter Tchir 看来，这只是一种“短暂的被动接受”，真正的市场反应藏在未来一周的细节里。\nPeter Tchir 在最新的报告中滤清了美联储和市场各自的行为，认为两者之间的“化学反应”不能在单个交易日体现完整。\n美联储做了什么？\n一、美联储加快Taper节奏，于2022年3月中旬结束资产购买。这在市场上或多或少已经被price in。\n二、美联储暗示2022年加息3次，目前而言市场对此消化良好。\nPeter Tchir 对本次鲍威尔新闻发布会评价称，鲍威尔似乎跨越了对抗通胀和渴望增长之间的界限，“在我看来，我是有偏见的，我发现他以一种过去从未有过的方式，向全国而不是金融市场发表演讲。也许他是在试图安抚华盛顿，同时坚持自己的立场？这似乎是有道理的，但我不确定这是怎么回事。”\n他继续补充称：“我认为鲍威尔新闻发布会最有力的观点是，需要很长的增长周期才能真正降低失业率（增加劳动力参与）。”\n市场做了什么？\n博弈之后，风险资产在美联储新闻发布会开始时表现得非常好，新闻发布会结束后，风险资产正在飙升。\n比特币从46650美元涨到了49000美元。理论上，美联储立场鹰派，比特币表现应该不佳。但这一次，比特币却疯狂上涨。与此同时，VIX 已经从上周高点回落。\n债券市场的平静也对风险资产产生了积极地影响。美联储议息会议结果公布后，2年期美债收益率从66个基点飙升至71个基点，随后回落至68个基点，表明该美联储的决定已被定价。10年期美债收益率最初下降，之后从1.45%上升到1.47%，曲线正在经历更多的平行变化（而不是大幅变平/变陡）。\n市场已经对美联储的言行定价了多少？Peter Tchir表示，这很难讲，但从比特币来看，做空者寡，做多者众。也许自2018年以来，市场已经习惯了美联储“言辞严厉，行为温和鸽派”；风险资产在美联储议息会议公布后大涨，这是市场希望看到的，但要维持这种状态需要更加鸽派的美联储。\n现在的市场状况有点类似于“每个人都知道美联储已经变得鹰派，但每个人都认为美联储不会这样行动。”全球供应链改善之前，消费者支出是否已经发生改变？公司如何保证库存和顺利生产？市场多头恐怕已经忽略了这些问题。\nPeter Tchir 进一步分析道，信贷应该是正常的，考虑到美联储今天的基调，债券市场的情况可能是正确的（可能会有加息，这将抑制增长）。虽然美联储仍在增加其资产负债表，但已接近尾声，而且美联储似乎并不急于实际缩减资产负债表（鲍威尔确实通过声明资产负债表将保持来安抚市场）。事实上，美联储资产负债表的流动性，即扩张和缩减对市场来说很重要，尘封不动的存量没有那么重要。\nPeter Tchir 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Game] Trade or Treat!","htmlText":"Hello, dear Tigers!&nbsp; Happy&nbsp;Halloween!&nbsp;🎃🎃🎃&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/halloween/?lang=en_US#/\" target=\"_blank\">Tap&nbsp;here&nbsp;to&nbsp;play the Halloween game,&nbsp;and&nbsp;you&nbsp;stand&nbsp;a&nbsp;chance&nbsp;to win various rewards!&nbsp;</a> Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1.&nbsp;How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'.&nbsp; 2.&nbsp;How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","listText":"Hello, dear Tigers!&nbsp; Happy&nbsp;Halloween!&nbsp;🎃🎃🎃&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/halloween/?lang=en_US#/\" target=\"_blank\">Tap&nbsp;here&nbsp;to&nbsp;play the Halloween game,&nbsp;and&nbsp;you&nbsp;stand&nbsp;a&nbsp;chance&nbsp;to win various rewards!&nbsp;</a> Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1.&nbsp;How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'.&nbsp; 2.&nbsp;How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","text":"Hello, dear Tigers! Happy Halloween! 🎃🎃🎃 Tap here to play the Halloween game, and you stand a chance to win various rewards! Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1. How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'. 2. How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while 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18:37","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美股出现“躺赢组合”，和上世纪“漂亮50”如出一辙","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1189655201","media":"美股研究社","summary":"只有超级巨头能通过抢夺竞争对手的市场份额获得宝贵的增长。","content":"<p>从已经发布的美国关键企业财报来看，预期中暴雷是有的，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Facebook</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>都交出了不及预期的财报，但市场却并没有出现剧烈震荡，仍然相当平稳。</p>\n<p>甚至，本周伊始，三大股指均创下了历史新高！但细心的小伙伴们，应该发现了一件事，那就是<b>股指虽然涨的很好，但大多数个股都基本没涨，甚至还跌的相当惨。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08562759f8e47b65594797093bdcbc2a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"599\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>举几个重要的板块，金融支付板块，V单周暴跌8.42%、MA单周暴跌6.45%、PYPL收跌3.25%、AXP收跌7.11%、COF收跌10.02%，可以说远远跑输了大盘。再比如，工业军工板块。RTX单周收跌3.27%、GD单周收跌3.23%、NOC单周收跌12.06%，一直被当成稳健蓝筹的LMT更是放量暴跌11.29%。</p>\n<p>在正式对未来进行预测之前，还是先来复盘下，我们在10月的预测。在月初的时候，我写了一篇对10月的预测，整体观点可以总结成以下三点：</p>\n<p>1、当美股9月出现暴跌的时候，意味着机构对三季度财报相当谨慎，10月往往会有相当大的波动，而按照历史数据来看，再次出现回调的概率很高。10月14日之前，大盘会在低位继续震荡。</p>\n<p>2、14日之后，财报季开启，银行股财报决定大盘方向。如果财报暴雷，美股直接往下暴跌1000点，如果业绩很好，股指短期重新恢复上涨动能，然后继续等FAAMG五大巨公布财报。</p>\n<p>3、25日之后，FAAMG公布财报。如果FAAMG财报炸裂，股指创新高之后，机构会借助FAAMG财报出货，大盘走势会参照去年9月和今年2月，最后走出一个双底。如果FAAMG财报暴雷，纳指可能会往下暴跌，迎来戴维斯双杀，去补13300的缺口。</p>\n<p>现在正好10月过去了，很多人可能没有看懂我们的分析，这里有必要去回顾下当时的预测。这三点预测是一个层层递进关系，基本重要板块的财报是关键的时间节点。</p>\n<p>第一点的预测是针对10月1日~10月14日没开启财报季的大盘，这点我们预测的可以说相当精准，股指在10月14日之前一直处在震荡下行状态，体现出市场对财报季的谨慎。</p>\n<p>第二点的预测是针对10月14日~25日的大盘，这个时候银行股财报已经公布了，但FAAMG的财报还没公布，市场的方向主要由银行板块决定，14日跳空上涨之后，我们在10月14日~25日这个阶段激进做多，这点的预测也可以说相当精准。</p>\n<p>第三点的预测是针对10月25日~30日的大盘，这个时候FAAMG的财报已经公布，整体业绩表现相当不错，三大股指也接近创下历史新高。按照我们的判断，机构会借助利好出货，回调可能要来了，但最后的结果却是加速上涨，周四创下历史新高。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7736457d0e7c5a3fe4dc7e3bf68a4677\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>到这里，在10月28日这一天，我们对10月美股走势的判断，可以说宣告失败。纳指并没有开启预期中的双底调整，而是走出了相当强劲的V形反转。</p>\n<p>我们的预测为什么错了？因为<b>错误的低估了市场对巨头的热情</b>。在整个10月，TFAANMG等超级巨头开启了超级上升浪，光TSLA一家公司就给整个股指贡献了3个点左右的涨幅。</p>\n<p>如果你算上NVDA、MSFT、GOOG剩下的巨头。你会发现，光这八大巨头就给纳指贡献了接近7%的涨幅。想象一下，纳指在整个10月就涨了7.27%，八大巨头却贡献了7%的涨幅，等于剩下的公司基本是没涨没跌。</p>\n<p><b>如果我们把目光集中到Top 15的话，你会发现前十五大巨头给股指贡献了差不多8.3%的涨幅。这是一件更加可怕的事，意味着纳指100里面的剩下85家公司在10月给整个股指贡献的涨幅是负数，而且超过了1%的跌幅。</b></p>\n<p>如果我们看今年一年，纳指涨了20%左右，TFAAMG七大巨头给股指的贡献又是多少呢？简单粗略算了下，差不多贡献了21.15%的涨幅，如果进一步集中到Top 15的话，差不多要贡献26%左右的涨幅。</p>\n<p>说现在已经进入抱团时代，这一系列血淋淋的数据摆在这，相信没有人会去否认这个事实了。这就是我要在文章一开始要对10月的错误预测进行复盘的原因，因为实在是严重低估了美股抱团的决心。</p>\n<p>当前这一波行情，我们如果要用一个概念来总结的话，不妨可以叫“躺赢组合”。FAAMG是最稳健的大盘股，TSLA和NVDA是最优秀的成长股，这七大巨头覆盖了人类经济社会的方方面面，既有稳定的现金流，又有具有想象力前景的概念。</p>\n<p>FB是社交媒体最强王者、GOOG是数字广告最强王者、AMZN是电商最强王者、MSFT是软件服务的最强王者、AAPL是宇宙总龙头、TSLA是新能源最强王者、NVDA是芯片、元宇宙、AI的最强王者。</p>\n<p>TSLA在竞争对手纷纷遭遇芯片供应链危机和通胀成长上涨阶段，不仅实现了销量的逆势增长，反而实现了利润率的加速提升。</p>\n<p>AMZN和其他零售商一样遭到了严重通胀成本上涨危机，并且带来了40亿美元的影响，但AWS、Prime会员订阅、数字广告等利润率高的业务均在三季度加速增长。</p>\n<p>GOOG强劲的业绩告诉市场，虽然供应链危机让广告主减少了支出，但数字广告赛道增长仍然非常健康。FB遭到了同样的危险，但元宇宙的前景也值得投资人期待。</p>\n<p>AAPL受到了供应链影响，但这个影响也只有60亿美元，在一季度900亿美元的营收面前，这个影响可以忽略不计，更何况当前的iPhone 13正创下历史最好销量成绩单。</p>\n<p>NVDA的芯片仍然处在供不应求的阶段，即使供应链会导致成本上涨，但它们可以轻而易举的转移给下游的需求方。人工智能、大数据、自动驾驶等业务的高速发展，都告诉市场这家公司不会放缓增长。</p>\n<p>MSFT是唯一不受通胀影响的超级巨头，经济周期对其的影响几乎可以忽略不计，明年还有涨价15%的超级利好预期，增长仍然值得期待。</p>\n<p><b>TFAAMG强劲的三季度财报，让市场明白了一个道理，只有超级巨头才是真正可以抵抗通胀的</b>。我们去看看其他板块，却大多数都受到了影响，举三个比较数字的例子：</p>\n<p>一个是军工板块的蓝筹股LMT，三季度的财报就遇到了大雷；一个是消费板块的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBUX\">星巴克</a>，三季度也受到了咖啡豆成本上涨的影响；另一个是运输板块的FDX，人力成本激增导致利润率出现了严重下滑。</p>\n<p>回到我们10月的预测，纳指为什么在FAAMG财报公布之后，不仅没有出现预期中的回调，反而突破了阻力位，创下了历史新高？这中间的导火索，主要是因为周四公布的GDP数据。</p>\n<p>据美国政府周四发布的一项报告，继第二季度消费者12%年增长率之后，三季度消费者支出的年增长率放缓至1.6% 。不仅低于今年二季度的6.7%，还低于市场保守预测的3.5%，为该国自2020年二季度暴跌以来最慢的增速。</p>\n<p><b>史无前例的放水之后，疫情蔓延、供应链瓶颈、居高不下的通胀，一个又一个棘手的难题正在拖垮着美国的经济增长。美联储又不可能回到去年那样的宽松状态，经济刺激的效果基本没太大作用了，整个社会即将迈入一个慢增长阶段。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f832007e9c17ca507e50ca27f3fa7bc8\" tg-width=\"664\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>历史是最好的老师，“躺赢组合”形成的原因，其实和上个世纪的“漂亮50”如出一辙，都是因为<b>经济在恶性通胀之后，即将进入一个存量竞争时代，只有超级巨头能通过抢夺竞争对手的市场份额获得宝贵的增长。</b></p>\n<p>三大股指在10月走出V形反转的形态，表面上看是FAAMG的业绩不错，带领着大盘持续上行，内在其实是「市场预期经济即将进入新的下行拐点，只有超级巨头能够保持增长，<b>在长期经济增长不确定的大环境中购买确定性，整体市场的估值体系正在发生转化</b>」</p>\n<p>那么问题来了，当年的抱团主要集中在消费医药板块，为什么现在却将更多的目光了科技板块。这其实又要说到另一个数据，那就是美国三季度的消费者商品支出数据：美国三季度消费者商品支出下降了9.2%。</p>\n<p>不同以往的货币宽松，这一轮的放水主要是疫情驱动，溢出的流动性基本全部流向了金融市场，而不是实体经济。美国人在这个阶段的资产价格确实增长了很多，但可支配的消费水平却是下滑的，尤其在美国政府停止发放救济补助之后。</p>\n<p>说的难听点，美国经济很可能要进入“滞涨”阶段，消费市场大概率是要萎缩的。这个时候，只有科技创新，或许才能改变未来的困境，也只有科技巨头还能保持持续增长。<b>当然，最重要的是，现在TFAANMG都是印钞机。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05654f9e10dbbcbd932a740cbb5d3575\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>历史给人类最大的教训，就是人类不肯接受历史的教训。</p>\n<p>当前这个市场，其实很简单了，你要么买入“躺赢组合”，既然跑不赢，那就加入它。要么就拿着那些受到通胀影响的公司，做<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">好未来</a>2年赚不到钱的准备。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美股出现“躺赢组合”，和上世纪“漂亮50”如出一辙</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美股出现“躺赢组合”，和上世纪“漂亮50”如出一辙\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/e09c69c7ea1d4781a9de127f9b375dd6);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">美股研究社 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-11-02 18:37</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>从已经发布的美国关键企业财报来看，预期中暴雷是有的，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Facebook</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>都交出了不及预期的财报，但市场却并没有出现剧烈震荡，仍然相当平稳。</p>\n<p>甚至，本周伊始，三大股指均创下了历史新高！但细心的小伙伴们，应该发现了一件事，那就是<b>股指虽然涨的很好，但大多数个股都基本没涨，甚至还跌的相当惨。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08562759f8e47b65594797093bdcbc2a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"599\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>举几个重要的板块，金融支付板块，V单周暴跌8.42%、MA单周暴跌6.45%、PYPL收跌3.25%、AXP收跌7.11%、COF收跌10.02%，可以说远远跑输了大盘。再比如，工业军工板块。RTX单周收跌3.27%、GD单周收跌3.23%、NOC单周收跌12.06%，一直被当成稳健蓝筹的LMT更是放量暴跌11.29%。</p>\n<p>在正式对未来进行预测之前，还是先来复盘下，我们在10月的预测。在月初的时候，我写了一篇对10月的预测，整体观点可以总结成以下三点：</p>\n<p>1、当美股9月出现暴跌的时候，意味着机构对三季度财报相当谨慎，10月往往会有相当大的波动，而按照历史数据来看，再次出现回调的概率很高。10月14日之前，大盘会在低位继续震荡。</p>\n<p>2、14日之后，财报季开启，银行股财报决定大盘方向。如果财报暴雷，美股直接往下暴跌1000点，如果业绩很好，股指短期重新恢复上涨动能，然后继续等FAAMG五大巨公布财报。</p>\n<p>3、25日之后，FAAMG公布财报。如果FAAMG财报炸裂，股指创新高之后，机构会借助FAAMG财报出货，大盘走势会参照去年9月和今年2月，最后走出一个双底。如果FAAMG财报暴雷，纳指可能会往下暴跌，迎来戴维斯双杀，去补13300的缺口。</p>\n<p>现在正好10月过去了，很多人可能没有看懂我们的分析，这里有必要去回顾下当时的预测。这三点预测是一个层层递进关系，基本重要板块的财报是关键的时间节点。</p>\n<p>第一点的预测是针对10月1日~10月14日没开启财报季的大盘，这点我们预测的可以说相当精准，股指在10月14日之前一直处在震荡下行状态，体现出市场对财报季的谨慎。</p>\n<p>第二点的预测是针对10月14日~25日的大盘，这个时候银行股财报已经公布了，但FAAMG的财报还没公布，市场的方向主要由银行板块决定，14日跳空上涨之后，我们在10月14日~25日这个阶段激进做多，这点的预测也可以说相当精准。</p>\n<p>第三点的预测是针对10月25日~30日的大盘，这个时候FAAMG的财报已经公布，整体业绩表现相当不错，三大股指也接近创下历史新高。按照我们的判断，机构会借助利好出货，回调可能要来了，但最后的结果却是加速上涨，周四创下历史新高。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7736457d0e7c5a3fe4dc7e3bf68a4677\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>到这里，在10月28日这一天，我们对10月美股走势的判断，可以说宣告失败。纳指并没有开启预期中的双底调整，而是走出了相当强劲的V形反转。</p>\n<p>我们的预测为什么错了？因为<b>错误的低估了市场对巨头的热情</b>。在整个10月，TFAANMG等超级巨头开启了超级上升浪，光TSLA一家公司就给整个股指贡献了3个点左右的涨幅。</p>\n<p>如果你算上NVDA、MSFT、GOOG剩下的巨头。你会发现，光这八大巨头就给纳指贡献了接近7%的涨幅。想象一下，纳指在整个10月就涨了7.27%，八大巨头却贡献了7%的涨幅，等于剩下的公司基本是没涨没跌。</p>\n<p><b>如果我们把目光集中到Top 15的话，你会发现前十五大巨头给股指贡献了差不多8.3%的涨幅。这是一件更加可怕的事，意味着纳指100里面的剩下85家公司在10月给整个股指贡献的涨幅是负数，而且超过了1%的跌幅。</b></p>\n<p>如果我们看今年一年，纳指涨了20%左右，TFAAMG七大巨头给股指的贡献又是多少呢？简单粗略算了下，差不多贡献了21.15%的涨幅，如果进一步集中到Top 15的话，差不多要贡献26%左右的涨幅。</p>\n<p>说现在已经进入抱团时代，这一系列血淋淋的数据摆在这，相信没有人会去否认这个事实了。这就是我要在文章一开始要对10月的错误预测进行复盘的原因，因为实在是严重低估了美股抱团的决心。</p>\n<p>当前这一波行情，我们如果要用一个概念来总结的话，不妨可以叫“躺赢组合”。FAAMG是最稳健的大盘股，TSLA和NVDA是最优秀的成长股，这七大巨头覆盖了人类经济社会的方方面面，既有稳定的现金流，又有具有想象力前景的概念。</p>\n<p>FB是社交媒体最强王者、GOOG是数字广告最强王者、AMZN是电商最强王者、MSFT是软件服务的最强王者、AAPL是宇宙总龙头、TSLA是新能源最强王者、NVDA是芯片、元宇宙、AI的最强王者。</p>\n<p>TSLA在竞争对手纷纷遭遇芯片供应链危机和通胀成长上涨阶段，不仅实现了销量的逆势增长，反而实现了利润率的加速提升。</p>\n<p>AMZN和其他零售商一样遭到了严重通胀成本上涨危机，并且带来了40亿美元的影响，但AWS、Prime会员订阅、数字广告等利润率高的业务均在三季度加速增长。</p>\n<p>GOOG强劲的业绩告诉市场，虽然供应链危机让广告主减少了支出，但数字广告赛道增长仍然非常健康。FB遭到了同样的危险，但元宇宙的前景也值得投资人期待。</p>\n<p>AAPL受到了供应链影响，但这个影响也只有60亿美元，在一季度900亿美元的营收面前，这个影响可以忽略不计，更何况当前的iPhone 13正创下历史最好销量成绩单。</p>\n<p>NVDA的芯片仍然处在供不应求的阶段，即使供应链会导致成本上涨，但它们可以轻而易举的转移给下游的需求方。人工智能、大数据、自动驾驶等业务的高速发展，都告诉市场这家公司不会放缓增长。</p>\n<p>MSFT是唯一不受通胀影响的超级巨头，经济周期对其的影响几乎可以忽略不计，明年还有涨价15%的超级利好预期，增长仍然值得期待。</p>\n<p><b>TFAAMG强劲的三季度财报，让市场明白了一个道理，只有超级巨头才是真正可以抵抗通胀的</b>。我们去看看其他板块，却大多数都受到了影响，举三个比较数字的例子：</p>\n<p>一个是军工板块的蓝筹股LMT，三季度的财报就遇到了大雷；一个是消费板块的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBUX\">星巴克</a>，三季度也受到了咖啡豆成本上涨的影响；另一个是运输板块的FDX，人力成本激增导致利润率出现了严重下滑。</p>\n<p>回到我们10月的预测，纳指为什么在FAAMG财报公布之后，不仅没有出现预期中的回调，反而突破了阻力位，创下了历史新高？这中间的导火索，主要是因为周四公布的GDP数据。</p>\n<p>据美国政府周四发布的一项报告，继第二季度消费者12%年增长率之后，三季度消费者支出的年增长率放缓至1.6% 。不仅低于今年二季度的6.7%，还低于市场保守预测的3.5%，为该国自2020年二季度暴跌以来最慢的增速。</p>\n<p><b>史无前例的放水之后，疫情蔓延、供应链瓶颈、居高不下的通胀，一个又一个棘手的难题正在拖垮着美国的经济增长。美联储又不可能回到去年那样的宽松状态，经济刺激的效果基本没太大作用了，整个社会即将迈入一个慢增长阶段。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f832007e9c17ca507e50ca27f3fa7bc8\" tg-width=\"664\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>历史是最好的老师，“躺赢组合”形成的原因，其实和上个世纪的“漂亮50”如出一辙，都是因为<b>经济在恶性通胀之后，即将进入一个存量竞争时代，只有超级巨头能通过抢夺竞争对手的市场份额获得宝贵的增长。</b></p>\n<p>三大股指在10月走出V形反转的形态，表面上看是FAAMG的业绩不错，带领着大盘持续上行，内在其实是「市场预期经济即将进入新的下行拐点，只有超级巨头能够保持增长，<b>在长期经济增长不确定的大环境中购买确定性，整体市场的估值体系正在发生转化</b>」</p>\n<p>那么问题来了，当年的抱团主要集中在消费医药板块，为什么现在却将更多的目光了科技板块。这其实又要说到另一个数据，那就是美国三季度的消费者商品支出数据：美国三季度消费者商品支出下降了9.2%。</p>\n<p>不同以往的货币宽松，这一轮的放水主要是疫情驱动，溢出的流动性基本全部流向了金融市场，而不是实体经济。美国人在这个阶段的资产价格确实增长了很多，但可支配的消费水平却是下滑的，尤其在美国政府停止发放救济补助之后。</p>\n<p>说的难听点，美国经济很可能要进入“滞涨”阶段，消费市场大概率是要萎缩的。这个时候，只有科技创新，或许才能改变未来的困境，也只有科技巨头还能保持持续增长。<b>当然，最重要的是，现在TFAANMG都是印钞机。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05654f9e10dbbcbd932a740cbb5d3575\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>历史给人类最大的教训，就是人类不肯接受历史的教训。</p>\n<p>当前这个市场，其实很简单了，你要么买入“躺赢组合”，既然跑不赢，那就加入它。要么就拿着那些受到通胀影响的公司，做<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">好未来</a>2年赚不到钱的准备。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2578fef036607345dce47cc401e172a3","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1189655201","content_text":"从已经发布的美国关键企业财报来看，预期中暴雷是有的，Facebook、亚马逊和苹果都交出了不及预期的财报，但市场却并没有出现剧烈震荡，仍然相当平稳。\n甚至，本周伊始，三大股指均创下了历史新高！但细心的小伙伴们，应该发现了一件事，那就是股指虽然涨的很好，但大多数个股都基本没涨，甚至还跌的相当惨。\n\n举几个重要的板块，金融支付板块，V单周暴跌8.42%、MA单周暴跌6.45%、PYPL收跌3.25%、AXP收跌7.11%、COF收跌10.02%，可以说远远跑输了大盘。再比如，工业军工板块。RTX单周收跌3.27%、GD单周收跌3.23%、NOC单周收跌12.06%，一直被当成稳健蓝筹的LMT更是放量暴跌11.29%。\n在正式对未来进行预测之前，还是先来复盘下，我们在10月的预测。在月初的时候，我写了一篇对10月的预测，整体观点可以总结成以下三点：\n1、当美股9月出现暴跌的时候，意味着机构对三季度财报相当谨慎，10月往往会有相当大的波动，而按照历史数据来看，再次出现回调的概率很高。10月14日之前，大盘会在低位继续震荡。\n2、14日之后，财报季开启，银行股财报决定大盘方向。如果财报暴雷，美股直接往下暴跌1000点，如果业绩很好，股指短期重新恢复上涨动能，然后继续等FAAMG五大巨公布财报。\n3、25日之后，FAAMG公布财报。如果FAAMG财报炸裂，股指创新高之后，机构会借助FAAMG财报出货，大盘走势会参照去年9月和今年2月，最后走出一个双底。如果FAAMG财报暴雷，纳指可能会往下暴跌，迎来戴维斯双杀，去补13300的缺口。\n现在正好10月过去了，很多人可能没有看懂我们的分析，这里有必要去回顾下当时的预测。这三点预测是一个层层递进关系，基本重要板块的财报是关键的时间节点。\n第一点的预测是针对10月1日~10月14日没开启财报季的大盘，这点我们预测的可以说相当精准，股指在10月14日之前一直处在震荡下行状态，体现出市场对财报季的谨慎。\n第二点的预测是针对10月14日~25日的大盘，这个时候银行股财报已经公布了，但FAAMG的财报还没公布，市场的方向主要由银行板块决定，14日跳空上涨之后，我们在10月14日~25日这个阶段激进做多，这点的预测也可以说相当精准。\n第三点的预测是针对10月25日~30日的大盘，这个时候FAAMG的财报已经公布，整体业绩表现相当不错，三大股指也接近创下历史新高。按照我们的判断，机构会借助利好出货，回调可能要来了，但最后的结果却是加速上涨，周四创下历史新高。\n\n到这里，在10月28日这一天，我们对10月美股走势的判断，可以说宣告失败。纳指并没有开启预期中的双底调整，而是走出了相当强劲的V形反转。\n我们的预测为什么错了？因为错误的低估了市场对巨头的热情。在整个10月，TFAANMG等超级巨头开启了超级上升浪，光TSLA一家公司就给整个股指贡献了3个点左右的涨幅。\n如果你算上NVDA、MSFT、GOOG剩下的巨头。你会发现，光这八大巨头就给纳指贡献了接近7%的涨幅。想象一下，纳指在整个10月就涨了7.27%，八大巨头却贡献了7%的涨幅，等于剩下的公司基本是没涨没跌。\n如果我们把目光集中到Top 15的话，你会发现前十五大巨头给股指贡献了差不多8.3%的涨幅。这是一件更加可怕的事，意味着纳指100里面的剩下85家公司在10月给整个股指贡献的涨幅是负数，而且超过了1%的跌幅。\n如果我们看今年一年，纳指涨了20%左右，TFAAMG七大巨头给股指的贡献又是多少呢？简单粗略算了下，差不多贡献了21.15%的涨幅，如果进一步集中到Top 15的话，差不多要贡献26%左右的涨幅。\n说现在已经进入抱团时代，这一系列血淋淋的数据摆在这，相信没有人会去否认这个事实了。这就是我要在文章一开始要对10月的错误预测进行复盘的原因，因为实在是严重低估了美股抱团的决心。\n当前这一波行情，我们如果要用一个概念来总结的话，不妨可以叫“躺赢组合”。FAAMG是最稳健的大盘股，TSLA和NVDA是最优秀的成长股，这七大巨头覆盖了人类经济社会的方方面面，既有稳定的现金流，又有具有想象力前景的概念。\nFB是社交媒体最强王者、GOOG是数字广告最强王者、AMZN是电商最强王者、MSFT是软件服务的最强王者、AAPL是宇宙总龙头、TSLA是新能源最强王者、NVDA是芯片、元宇宙、AI的最强王者。\nTSLA在竞争对手纷纷遭遇芯片供应链危机和通胀成长上涨阶段，不仅实现了销量的逆势增长，反而实现了利润率的加速提升。\nAMZN和其他零售商一样遭到了严重通胀成本上涨危机，并且带来了40亿美元的影响，但AWS、Prime会员订阅、数字广告等利润率高的业务均在三季度加速增长。\nGOOG强劲的业绩告诉市场，虽然供应链危机让广告主减少了支出，但数字广告赛道增长仍然非常健康。FB遭到了同样的危险，但元宇宙的前景也值得投资人期待。\nAAPL受到了供应链影响，但这个影响也只有60亿美元，在一季度900亿美元的营收面前，这个影响可以忽略不计，更何况当前的iPhone 13正创下历史最好销量成绩单。\nNVDA的芯片仍然处在供不应求的阶段，即使供应链会导致成本上涨，但它们可以轻而易举的转移给下游的需求方。人工智能、大数据、自动驾驶等业务的高速发展，都告诉市场这家公司不会放缓增长。\nMSFT是唯一不受通胀影响的超级巨头，经济周期对其的影响几乎可以忽略不计，明年还有涨价15%的超级利好预期，增长仍然值得期待。\nTFAAMG强劲的三季度财报，让市场明白了一个道理，只有超级巨头才是真正可以抵抗通胀的。我们去看看其他板块，却大多数都受到了影响，举三个比较数字的例子：\n一个是军工板块的蓝筹股LMT，三季度的财报就遇到了大雷；一个是消费板块的星巴克，三季度也受到了咖啡豆成本上涨的影响；另一个是运输板块的FDX，人力成本激增导致利润率出现了严重下滑。\n回到我们10月的预测，纳指为什么在FAAMG财报公布之后，不仅没有出现预期中的回调，反而突破了阻力位，创下了历史新高？这中间的导火索，主要是因为周四公布的GDP数据。\n据美国政府周四发布的一项报告，继第二季度消费者12%年增长率之后，三季度消费者支出的年增长率放缓至1.6% 。不仅低于今年二季度的6.7%，还低于市场保守预测的3.5%，为该国自2020年二季度暴跌以来最慢的增速。\n史无前例的放水之后，疫情蔓延、供应链瓶颈、居高不下的通胀，一个又一个棘手的难题正在拖垮着美国的经济增长。美联储又不可能回到去年那样的宽松状态，经济刺激的效果基本没太大作用了，整个社会即将迈入一个慢增长阶段。\n\n历史是最好的老师，“躺赢组合”形成的原因，其实和上个世纪的“漂亮50”如出一辙，都是因为经济在恶性通胀之后，即将进入一个存量竞争时代，只有超级巨头能通过抢夺竞争对手的市场份额获得宝贵的增长。\n三大股指在10月走出V形反转的形态，表面上看是FAAMG的业绩不错，带领着大盘持续上行，内在其实是「市场预期经济即将进入新的下行拐点，只有超级巨头能够保持增长，在长期经济增长不确定的大环境中购买确定性，整体市场的估值体系正在发生转化」\n那么问题来了，当年的抱团主要集中在消费医药板块，为什么现在却将更多的目光了科技板块。这其实又要说到另一个数据，那就是美国三季度的消费者商品支出数据：美国三季度消费者商品支出下降了9.2%。\n不同以往的货币宽松，这一轮的放水主要是疫情驱动，溢出的流动性基本全部流向了金融市场，而不是实体经济。美国人在这个阶段的资产价格确实增长了很多，但可支配的消费水平却是下滑的，尤其在美国政府停止发放救济补助之后。\n说的难听点，美国经济很可能要进入“滞涨”阶段，消费市场大概率是要萎缩的。这个时候，只有科技创新，或许才能改变未来的困境，也只有科技巨头还能保持持续增长。当然，最重要的是，现在TFAANMG都是印钞机。\n\n历史给人类最大的教训，就是人类不肯接受历史的教训。\n当前这个市场，其实很简单了，你要么买入“躺赢组合”，既然跑不赢，那就加入它。要么就拿着那些受到通胀影响的公司，做好未来2年赚不到钱的准备。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":958,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":683824556,"gmtCreate":1656210089278,"gmtModify":1704864236487,"author":{"id":"4097895666271610","authorId":"4097895666271610","name":"Juliasheng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88669bb70cf7b8dfa2de1f420d8237c2","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4097895666271610","authorIdStr":"4097895666271610"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑] 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Game] Trade or Treat!","htmlText":"Hello, dear Tigers!&nbsp; Happy&nbsp;Halloween!&nbsp;🎃🎃🎃&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/halloween/?lang=en_US#/\" target=\"_blank\">Tap&nbsp;here&nbsp;to&nbsp;play the Halloween game,&nbsp;and&nbsp;you&nbsp;stand&nbsp;a&nbsp;chance&nbsp;to win various rewards!&nbsp;</a> Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1.&nbsp;How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'.&nbsp; 2.&nbsp;How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","listText":"Hello, dear Tigers!&nbsp; Happy&nbsp;Halloween!&nbsp;🎃🎃🎃&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/halloween/?lang=en_US#/\" target=\"_blank\">Tap&nbsp;here&nbsp;to&nbsp;play the Halloween game,&nbsp;and&nbsp;you&nbsp;stand&nbsp;a&nbsp;chance&nbsp;to win various rewards!&nbsp;</a> Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1.&nbsp;How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'.&nbsp; 2.&nbsp;How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","text":"Hello, dear Tigers! Happy Halloween! 🎃🎃🎃 Tap here to play the Halloween game, and you stand a chance to win various rewards! Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1. How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'. 2. How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while 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[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/683824656","repostId":"1113035945","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1113035945","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"提供IPO最新消息，及时更新市场动态，专家团队助力分析可投资项目价值，提供IPO项目咨询服务。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"独角兽早知道","id":"1023683695","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1147954ba5ed4a54ba9a061e9dd405e5"},"pubTimestamp":1656205999,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1113035945?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-06-26 09:13","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"名创优品或下周启动香港IPO，腾讯与高瓴为股东","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1113035945","media":"独角兽早知道","summary":"向港交所递交招股书近3个月后，在美国纳斯达克上市不到两年的名创优品，回归港股上市有了实质进展。据媒体报道，名创优品香港上市已获批，公司最早于6月27日当周启动港交所上市，拟筹资约1亿美元。名创优品此前","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>向港交所递交招股书近3个月后，在美国纳斯达克上市不到两年的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MNSO\">名创优品</a>，回归港股上市有了实质进展。</p><p>据媒体报道，名创优品香港上市已获批，公司最早于6月27日当周启动港交所上市，拟筹资约1亿美元。</p><p>名创优品此前回应，公司赴港交所双重上市是为了主动应对在美国潜在退市风险，同时改善目前股票流动性等问题。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/214d2ea26921caa3190a15171e37f617\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"963\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>此次赴港，名创优品选择了与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZH\">知乎</a>相同的通过双重主要上市的方式在港上市。</p><p>即同一公司在两地证券交易所挂牌上市，而与使用存托凭证的二次上市最大的不同，是双重主要上市在两地挂牌的并非同一批股票，而是或挂牌非流通股、或增发股票，所以两地拥有同等的上市地位，假若在其中一个上市地退市，也不会影响到另一个上市地的上市地位。</p><p>有分析师称，这一流程与IPO相同，门槛也比较高，但符合名创优品对“安全性”的要求。鉴于双重主要上市后的两地股价行情亦相对独立，也是近期中概股回港上市的热门选择。</p><p>招股书显示，名创优品是一家高速增长的全球零售商，提供丰富多样的创意居家生活产品。自2013年在中国开设第一家门店以来的九年时间里，公司已成功孵化了两个品牌，分别是名创优品和TOP TOY。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0775c2eef30f1c019ea501761873f02d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>根据弗若斯特沙利文报告，2021年，公司通过名创优品门店网络销售的产品GMV总计约人民币180亿元（28亿美元），成为全球最大的自有品牌生活家居综合零售商。</p><p>TOP TOY是公司在2020年12月推出的一个新品牌，首创潮流玩具集合店的概念。2021年，TOP TOY的GMV达到人民币3.74亿元，在中国潮流玩具市场以品牌线下门店为主要GMV来源的参与者中排名前三。</p><p>截至2021年6月30日止的财政年度，名创优品产品涵盖约8,800个核心SKU，包括11个主要品类，即生活家居、小型电子产品、纺织品、包袋配饰、美妆工具、玩具等；TOP TOY品牌于截至2021年12月31日已提供约4,600个SKU，涵盖8个主要品类，即：盲盒、积木、手办、收藏玩偶、一番赏、雕塑和其他潮流玩具。</p><p>财务数据方面，名创优品2022财年三季报显示，2022财年前三财季盈利4.33亿元，上年同期亏损15.3亿元，扭亏为盈；总营收77.68亿元，同比增长18.0%。</p><p>招股书显示，过去两年名创优品海外经营收入降低，在中国销售额增长的缓慢。至2021年12月31日，海外市场约4%的名创优品门店已暂时关闭。国内市场方面，物流以及运输服务供货商运营中断，也对公司产品的发货及交货产生负面影响。</p><p>根据弗若斯特沙利文报告，按GMV计，中国自有品牌综合零售市场的规模由2017年的人民币715亿元增至2021年的人民币951亿元，年复合增长率为7.4%，且预计2022年至2026年期间将以14.2%的年复合增长率进一步增加。</p><p>根据弗若斯特沙利文报告，于2021年，公司中国自有品牌综合零售业务的GMV为人民币108亿元，占中国自有品牌综合零售市场的市场份额为11.4%，按GMV计在中国自有品牌综合零售市场排名第一。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601878\">浙商证券</a>研报指出，自有品牌综合零售具备一定的进入壁垒，从产品设计到商品的选择能力，数字化供应链及运营能力的支撑，全渠道销售网络的搭建及客户互动的安排维护，到充分打造品牌知名度及客户信任度，积极的玩家需要大量的时间和资源来形成成熟市场参与者的多种销售渠道。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec0ab49fa493fa7a46e8719949cfd923\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"685\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>全球潮玩市场规模不断上升，预计将在2022年达到346亿美元。随着潮流文化产业迅速发展，中国的潮玩市场规模近年来也在飞速增长。国内潮玩行业竞争格局较为分散，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09992\">泡泡玛特</a>优势突出，2021年中国潮玩公司CR5达21.4%。</p><p>民生证券研报指出，消费者对购物体验、家居产品质量及设计要求提高。随着居民可支配收入和生活水平不断提高，消费者的需求更加多样化，对差异化购物体验及生活日用品的质量、设计期望提升。未来提供舒适购物体验、差异化产品设计和优秀产品质量的自有品牌综合零售商将迎来发展黄金期。</p><p>但值得注意的是，TOP TOY自己设计的比例较低是其毛利率低于行业的原因，预计名创优品成功在港二次上市后，会加大对自研发的支出。TOPTOY创始人孙元文曾公开表示，TOPTOY品牌外采和原创产品的比例约为7:3。</p><p>目前TOP TOY原创IP包括Twinkle、Tammy、BUZZ、YoYo等，整体知名度仍有待提高。TOP TOY的成长速度也在一定程度上决定着名创优品的未来走势。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>名创优品或下周启动香港IPO，腾讯与高瓴为股东</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n名创优品或下周启动香港IPO，腾讯与高瓴为股东\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1023683695\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/1147954ba5ed4a54ba9a061e9dd405e5);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">独角兽早知道 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-06-26 09:13</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>向港交所递交招股书近3个月后，在美国纳斯达克上市不到两年的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MNSO\">名创优品</a>，回归港股上市有了实质进展。</p><p>据媒体报道，名创优品香港上市已获批，公司最早于6月27日当周启动港交所上市，拟筹资约1亿美元。</p><p>名创优品此前回应，公司赴港交所双重上市是为了主动应对在美国潜在退市风险，同时改善目前股票流动性等问题。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/214d2ea26921caa3190a15171e37f617\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"963\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>此次赴港，名创优品选择了与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZH\">知乎</a>相同的通过双重主要上市的方式在港上市。</p><p>即同一公司在两地证券交易所挂牌上市，而与使用存托凭证的二次上市最大的不同，是双重主要上市在两地挂牌的并非同一批股票，而是或挂牌非流通股、或增发股票，所以两地拥有同等的上市地位，假若在其中一个上市地退市，也不会影响到另一个上市地的上市地位。</p><p>有分析师称，这一流程与IPO相同，门槛也比较高，但符合名创优品对“安全性”的要求。鉴于双重主要上市后的两地股价行情亦相对独立，也是近期中概股回港上市的热门选择。</p><p>招股书显示，名创优品是一家高速增长的全球零售商，提供丰富多样的创意居家生活产品。自2013年在中国开设第一家门店以来的九年时间里，公司已成功孵化了两个品牌，分别是名创优品和TOP TOY。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0775c2eef30f1c019ea501761873f02d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>根据弗若斯特沙利文报告，2021年，公司通过名创优品门店网络销售的产品GMV总计约人民币180亿元（28亿美元），成为全球最大的自有品牌生活家居综合零售商。</p><p>TOP TOY是公司在2020年12月推出的一个新品牌，首创潮流玩具集合店的概念。2021年，TOP TOY的GMV达到人民币3.74亿元，在中国潮流玩具市场以品牌线下门店为主要GMV来源的参与者中排名前三。</p><p>截至2021年6月30日止的财政年度，名创优品产品涵盖约8,800个核心SKU，包括11个主要品类，即生活家居、小型电子产品、纺织品、包袋配饰、美妆工具、玩具等；TOP TOY品牌于截至2021年12月31日已提供约4,600个SKU，涵盖8个主要品类，即：盲盒、积木、手办、收藏玩偶、一番赏、雕塑和其他潮流玩具。</p><p>财务数据方面，名创优品2022财年三季报显示，2022财年前三财季盈利4.33亿元，上年同期亏损15.3亿元，扭亏为盈；总营收77.68亿元，同比增长18.0%。</p><p>招股书显示，过去两年名创优品海外经营收入降低，在中国销售额增长的缓慢。至2021年12月31日，海外市场约4%的名创优品门店已暂时关闭。国内市场方面，物流以及运输服务供货商运营中断，也对公司产品的发货及交货产生负面影响。</p><p>根据弗若斯特沙利文报告，按GMV计，中国自有品牌综合零售市场的规模由2017年的人民币715亿元增至2021年的人民币951亿元，年复合增长率为7.4%，且预计2022年至2026年期间将以14.2%的年复合增长率进一步增加。</p><p>根据弗若斯特沙利文报告，于2021年，公司中国自有品牌综合零售业务的GMV为人民币108亿元，占中国自有品牌综合零售市场的市场份额为11.4%，按GMV计在中国自有品牌综合零售市场排名第一。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601878\">浙商证券</a>研报指出，自有品牌综合零售具备一定的进入壁垒，从产品设计到商品的选择能力，数字化供应链及运营能力的支撑，全渠道销售网络的搭建及客户互动的安排维护，到充分打造品牌知名度及客户信任度，积极的玩家需要大量的时间和资源来形成成熟市场参与者的多种销售渠道。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec0ab49fa493fa7a46e8719949cfd923\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"685\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>全球潮玩市场规模不断上升，预计将在2022年达到346亿美元。随着潮流文化产业迅速发展，中国的潮玩市场规模近年来也在飞速增长。国内潮玩行业竞争格局较为分散，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09992\">泡泡玛特</a>优势突出，2021年中国潮玩公司CR5达21.4%。</p><p>民生证券研报指出，消费者对购物体验、家居产品质量及设计要求提高。随着居民可支配收入和生活水平不断提高，消费者的需求更加多样化，对差异化购物体验及生活日用品的质量、设计期望提升。未来提供舒适购物体验、差异化产品设计和优秀产品质量的自有品牌综合零售商将迎来发展黄金期。</p><p>但值得注意的是，TOP TOY自己设计的比例较低是其毛利率低于行业的原因，预计名创优品成功在港二次上市后，会加大对自研发的支出。TOPTOY创始人孙元文曾公开表示，TOPTOY品牌外采和原创产品的比例约为7:3。</p><p>目前TOP TOY原创IP包括Twinkle、Tammy、BUZZ、YoYo等，整体知名度仍有待提高。TOP TOY的成长速度也在一定程度上决定着名创优品的未来走势。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0775c2eef30f1c019ea501761873f02d","relate_stocks":{"BK1608":"元宇宙概念","BK1502":"双十一","BK1517":"云办公","BK4114":"综合货品商店","BK1531":"手游股","BK1589":"北水核心资产","TCEHY":"腾讯控股ADR","BK1586":"云计算","IPO":"Renaissance IPO ETF","BK1526":"科网股","BK1516":"腾讯概念","BK1521":"挪威政府全球养老基金持仓","MNSO":"名创优品","BK4077":"互动媒体与服务","00700":"腾讯控股","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK1095":"互动媒体与服务","BK1591":"就地过年概念"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1113035945","content_text":"向港交所递交招股书近3个月后，在美国纳斯达克上市不到两年的名创优品，回归港股上市有了实质进展。据媒体报道，名创优品香港上市已获批，公司最早于6月27日当周启动港交所上市，拟筹资约1亿美元。名创优品此前回应，公司赴港交所双重上市是为了主动应对在美国潜在退市风险，同时改善目前股票流动性等问题。此次赴港，名创优品选择了与知乎相同的通过双重主要上市的方式在港上市。即同一公司在两地证券交易所挂牌上市，而与使用存托凭证的二次上市最大的不同，是双重主要上市在两地挂牌的并非同一批股票，而是或挂牌非流通股、或增发股票，所以两地拥有同等的上市地位，假若在其中一个上市地退市，也不会影响到另一个上市地的上市地位。有分析师称，这一流程与IPO相同，门槛也比较高，但符合名创优品对“安全性”的要求。鉴于双重主要上市后的两地股价行情亦相对独立，也是近期中概股回港上市的热门选择。招股书显示，名创优品是一家高速增长的全球零售商，提供丰富多样的创意居家生活产品。自2013年在中国开设第一家门店以来的九年时间里，公司已成功孵化了两个品牌，分别是名创优品和TOP TOY。根据弗若斯特沙利文报告，2021年，公司通过名创优品门店网络销售的产品GMV总计约人民币180亿元（28亿美元），成为全球最大的自有品牌生活家居综合零售商。TOP TOY是公司在2020年12月推出的一个新品牌，首创潮流玩具集合店的概念。2021年，TOP TOY的GMV达到人民币3.74亿元，在中国潮流玩具市场以品牌线下门店为主要GMV来源的参与者中排名前三。截至2021年6月30日止的财政年度，名创优品产品涵盖约8,800个核心SKU，包括11个主要品类，即生活家居、小型电子产品、纺织品、包袋配饰、美妆工具、玩具等；TOP TOY品牌于截至2021年12月31日已提供约4,600个SKU，涵盖8个主要品类，即：盲盒、积木、手办、收藏玩偶、一番赏、雕塑和其他潮流玩具。财务数据方面，名创优品2022财年三季报显示，2022财年前三财季盈利4.33亿元，上年同期亏损15.3亿元，扭亏为盈；总营收77.68亿元，同比增长18.0%。招股书显示，过去两年名创优品海外经营收入降低，在中国销售额增长的缓慢。至2021年12月31日，海外市场约4%的名创优品门店已暂时关闭。国内市场方面，物流以及运输服务供货商运营中断，也对公司产品的发货及交货产生负面影响。根据弗若斯特沙利文报告，按GMV计，中国自有品牌综合零售市场的规模由2017年的人民币715亿元增至2021年的人民币951亿元，年复合增长率为7.4%，且预计2022年至2026年期间将以14.2%的年复合增长率进一步增加。根据弗若斯特沙利文报告，于2021年，公司中国自有品牌综合零售业务的GMV为人民币108亿元，占中国自有品牌综合零售市场的市场份额为11.4%，按GMV计在中国自有品牌综合零售市场排名第一。浙商证券研报指出，自有品牌综合零售具备一定的进入壁垒，从产品设计到商品的选择能力，数字化供应链及运营能力的支撑，全渠道销售网络的搭建及客户互动的安排维护，到充分打造品牌知名度及客户信任度，积极的玩家需要大量的时间和资源来形成成熟市场参与者的多种销售渠道。全球潮玩市场规模不断上升，预计将在2022年达到346亿美元。随着潮流文化产业迅速发展，中国的潮玩市场规模近年来也在飞速增长。国内潮玩行业竞争格局较为分散，泡泡玛特优势突出，2021年中国潮玩公司CR5达21.4%。民生证券研报指出，消费者对购物体验、家居产品质量及设计要求提高。随着居民可支配收入和生活水平不断提高，消费者的需求更加多样化，对差异化购物体验及生活日用品的质量、设计期望提升。未来提供舒适购物体验、差异化产品设计和优秀产品质量的自有品牌综合零售商将迎来发展黄金期。但值得注意的是，TOP TOY自己设计的比例较低是其毛利率低于行业的原因，预计名创优品成功在港二次上市后，会加大对自研发的支出。TOPTOY创始人孙元文曾公开表示，TOPTOY品牌外采和原创产品的比例约为7:3。目前TOP TOY原创IP包括Twinkle、Tammy、BUZZ、YoYo等，整体知名度仍有待提高。TOP TOY的成长速度也在一定程度上决定着名创优品的未来走势。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":802,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":842486373,"gmtCreate":1636217495998,"gmtModify":1636217496096,"author":{"id":"4097895666271610","authorId":"4097895666271610","name":"Juliasheng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88669bb70cf7b8dfa2de1f420d8237c2","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4097895666271610","authorIdStr":"4097895666271610"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/842486373","repostId":"850756569","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":850756569,"gmtCreate":1634631211448,"gmtModify":1635853120757,"author":{"id":"36984908995200","authorId":"36984908995200","name":"小虎活动","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e396d03155923b283948d2dec9191f8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"36984908995200","authorIdStr":"36984908995200"},"themes":[],"title":"[Halloween Game] Trade or Treat!","htmlText":"Hello, dear Tigers!&nbsp; Happy&nbsp;Halloween!&nbsp;🎃🎃🎃&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/halloween/?lang=en_US#/\" target=\"_blank\">Tap&nbsp;here&nbsp;to&nbsp;play the Halloween game,&nbsp;and&nbsp;you&nbsp;stand&nbsp;a&nbsp;chance&nbsp;to win various rewards!&nbsp;</a> Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1.&nbsp;How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'.&nbsp; 2.&nbsp;How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","listText":"Hello, dear Tigers!&nbsp; Happy&nbsp;Halloween!&nbsp;🎃🎃🎃&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/halloween/?lang=en_US#/\" target=\"_blank\">Tap&nbsp;here&nbsp;to&nbsp;play the Halloween game,&nbsp;and&nbsp;you&nbsp;stand&nbsp;a&nbsp;chance&nbsp;to win various rewards!&nbsp;</a> Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1.&nbsp;How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'.&nbsp; 2.&nbsp;How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","text":"Hello, dear Tigers! Happy Halloween! 🎃🎃🎃 Tap here to play the Halloween game, and you stand a chance to win various rewards! Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1. How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'. 2. How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/850756569","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1178,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":846507470,"gmtCreate":1636092840742,"gmtModify":1636093121591,"author":{"id":"4097895666271610","authorId":"4097895666271610","name":"Juliasheng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88669bb70cf7b8dfa2de1f420d8237c2","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4097895666271610","authorIdStr":"4097895666271610"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/846507470","repostId":"850756569","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":850756569,"gmtCreate":1634631211448,"gmtModify":1635853120757,"author":{"id":"36984908995200","authorId":"36984908995200","name":"小虎活动","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e396d03155923b283948d2dec9191f8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"36984908995200","authorIdStr":"36984908995200"},"themes":[],"title":"[Halloween Game] Trade or Treat!","htmlText":"Hello, dear Tigers!&nbsp; Happy&nbsp;Halloween!&nbsp;🎃🎃🎃&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/halloween/?lang=en_US#/\" target=\"_blank\">Tap&nbsp;here&nbsp;to&nbsp;play the Halloween game,&nbsp;and&nbsp;you&nbsp;stand&nbsp;a&nbsp;chance&nbsp;to win various rewards!&nbsp;</a> Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1.&nbsp;How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'.&nbsp; 2.&nbsp;How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","listText":"Hello, dear Tigers!&nbsp; Happy&nbsp;Halloween!&nbsp;🎃🎃🎃&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/halloween/?lang=en_US#/\" target=\"_blank\">Tap&nbsp;here&nbsp;to&nbsp;play the Halloween game,&nbsp;and&nbsp;you&nbsp;stand&nbsp;a&nbsp;chance&nbsp;to win various rewards!&nbsp;</a> Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1.&nbsp;How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'.&nbsp; 2.&nbsp;How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","text":"Hello, dear Tigers! Happy Halloween! 🎃🎃🎃 Tap here to play the Halloween game, and you stand a chance to win various rewards! Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1. How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'. 2. How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/850756569","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":319,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":846930281,"gmtCreate":1636038515971,"gmtModify":1636038516060,"author":{"id":"4097895666271610","authorId":"4097895666271610","name":"Juliasheng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88669bb70cf7b8dfa2de1f420d8237c2","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4097895666271610","authorIdStr":"4097895666271610"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/846930281","repostId":"850756569","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":850756569,"gmtCreate":1634631211448,"gmtModify":1635853120757,"author":{"id":"36984908995200","authorId":"36984908995200","name":"小虎活动","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e396d03155923b283948d2dec9191f8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"36984908995200","authorIdStr":"36984908995200"},"themes":[],"title":"[Halloween Game] Trade or Treat!","htmlText":"Hello, dear Tigers!&nbsp; Happy&nbsp;Halloween!&nbsp;🎃🎃🎃&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/halloween/?lang=en_US#/\" target=\"_blank\">Tap&nbsp;here&nbsp;to&nbsp;play the Halloween game,&nbsp;and&nbsp;you&nbsp;stand&nbsp;a&nbsp;chance&nbsp;to win various rewards!&nbsp;</a> Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1.&nbsp;How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'.&nbsp; 2.&nbsp;How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","listText":"Hello, dear Tigers!&nbsp; Happy&nbsp;Halloween!&nbsp;🎃🎃🎃&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/halloween/?lang=en_US#/\" target=\"_blank\">Tap&nbsp;here&nbsp;to&nbsp;play the Halloween game,&nbsp;and&nbsp;you&nbsp;stand&nbsp;a&nbsp;chance&nbsp;to win various rewards!&nbsp;</a> Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1.&nbsp;How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'.&nbsp; 2.&nbsp;How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","text":"Hello, dear Tigers! Happy Halloween! 🎃🎃🎃 Tap here to play the Halloween game, and you stand a chance to win various rewards! Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1. How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'. 2. How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/850756569","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":267,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":843284612,"gmtCreate":1635832762076,"gmtModify":1635832762151,"author":{"id":"4097895666271610","authorId":"4097895666271610","name":"Juliasheng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88669bb70cf7b8dfa2de1f420d8237c2","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4097895666271610","authorIdStr":"4097895666271610"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/843284612","repostId":"850756569","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":850756569,"gmtCreate":1634631211448,"gmtModify":1635853120757,"author":{"id":"36984908995200","authorId":"36984908995200","name":"小虎活动","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e396d03155923b283948d2dec9191f8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"36984908995200","authorIdStr":"36984908995200"},"themes":[],"title":"[Halloween Game] Trade or Treat!","htmlText":"Hello, dear Tigers!&nbsp; Happy&nbsp;Halloween!&nbsp;🎃🎃🎃&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/halloween/?lang=en_US#/\" target=\"_blank\">Tap&nbsp;here&nbsp;to&nbsp;play the Halloween game,&nbsp;and&nbsp;you&nbsp;stand&nbsp;a&nbsp;chance&nbsp;to win various rewards!&nbsp;</a> Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1.&nbsp;How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'.&nbsp; 2.&nbsp;How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","listText":"Hello, dear Tigers!&nbsp; Happy&nbsp;Halloween!&nbsp;🎃🎃🎃&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/halloween/?lang=en_US#/\" target=\"_blank\">Tap&nbsp;here&nbsp;to&nbsp;play the Halloween game,&nbsp;and&nbsp;you&nbsp;stand&nbsp;a&nbsp;chance&nbsp;to win various rewards!&nbsp;</a> Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1.&nbsp;How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'.&nbsp; 2.&nbsp;How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","text":"Hello, dear Tigers! Happy Halloween! 🎃🎃🎃 Tap here to play the Halloween game, and you stand a chance to win various rewards! Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1. How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'. 2. How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/850756569","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":341,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":855843120,"gmtCreate":1635353931717,"gmtModify":1635388033771,"author":{"id":"4097895666271610","authorId":"4097895666271610","name":"Juliasheng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88669bb70cf7b8dfa2de1f420d8237c2","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4097895666271610","authorIdStr":"4097895666271610"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[呆住]&nbsp;","listText":"[呆住]&nbsp;","text":"[呆住]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/855843120","repostId":"1165563619","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":334,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}