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KeN3

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2021-12-17

So far so good

@MillionaireTiger:Pfizer Announced its Acquisition of Arena Pharmaceuticals in a $6.7 Billion

2021-12-08

Sold too early.. hopefully can buy in again

Why Apple Stock Climbed to a New All-Time High Today<blockquote>为什么苹果股价今天攀升至历史新高</blockquote>

2021-10-06

Stocks to look out for

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2021-10-04

Prices moving up so fast

Tesla shares rose 1.4% in premarket trading<blockquote>特斯拉股价在盘前交易中上涨1.4%</blockquote>

2021-09-09

Sea of red today.....

Stocks Are Suddenly Puking...<blockquote>股票突然呕吐...</blockquote>

2021-09-07

Not invested enough before this rise. Will need to buy in more to see the significance

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-09-03

What goes up will eventually come down. Just have to exit before the fall

What Will Happen When Trillions In Stimulus Run Out In 2022?<blockquote>2022年数万亿刺激用完会发生什么？</blockquote>

2021-09-02

Wow... will that really happen?

Bear Attack: Could Apple Stock Really Drop 40%?<blockquote>空头攻击：苹果股价真的会下跌40%吗？</blockquote>

2021-08-31

Who are the buyers?

Tesla Could Get Partial Tax Breaks In India After All: Report<blockquote>特斯拉毕竟可以在印度获得部分税收减免：报告</blockquote>

2021-08-31

Wow

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-08-24

If crosses the $150 mark.. there’ll be a spurt

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-08-23

Unfortunately not invested

NVIDIA shares rose nearly 3% to a new high<blockquote>英伟达股价涨近3%创新高</blockquote>

2021-08-22

Prices for these companies shares have risen exponentially... but is there still room for growth?

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2021-08-21

Doesn’t sound too good

Ignore Elon Musk’s dancing distraction and face the dangers ahead for Tesla<blockquote>忽略Elon Musk跳舞的干扰，面对特斯拉未来的危险</blockquote>

2021-08-18

Loved using their phones and products

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-08-18

Still a good stock to get, but what price?

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-08-17

Still moving up....

Big tech stocks fell in morning trading, Apple fell over 1% after reaching record high<blockquote>大型科技股早盘下跌苹果创历史新高后跌超1%</blockquote>

2021-08-16

Bleeding in progress

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-08-15

No wonder price is going up

Why Regulatory Risk Is A Silver Lining For Apple And Google<blockquote>为什么监管风险对苹果和谷歌来说是一线希望</blockquote>

2021-08-14

Gotta keep eyes on it

抱歉，原内容已删除

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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far so good","listText":"So far so good","text":"So far so good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/690533774","repostId":"607944827","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":607944827,"gmtCreate":1639481361363,"gmtModify":1639504322704,"author":{"id":"3527667618821228","authorId":"3527667618821228","name":"MillionaireTiger","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8901a3026957857b6996ae953d595bee","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3527667618821228","idStr":"3527667618821228"},"themes":[],"title":"Pfizer Announced its Acquisition of Arena Pharmaceuticals in a $6.7 Billion","htmlText":"Hey&nbsp;Tigers! Do&nbsp;you&nbsp;notice&nbsp;Pfizer's&nbsp;new&nbsp;play? Pfizer&nbsp;announced its&nbsp;acquisition&nbsp;of&nbsp;Arena Pharmaceuticals&nbsp;today in a&nbsp;$6.7 billion deal&nbsp;for the company’s research on inflammatory conditions affecting the stomach and intestine.&nbsp;Pfizer will pay Arena $100/share in cash. Shares of Arena stock nearly&nbsp;doubled&nbsp;yesterday as the company pursues treatments for ulcerative colitis and Crohn’s disease, as well as other dermatological, gastrointestinal, and cardiac conditions — Arena’s etrasimod drug for ulcerative colitis/Crohn’s is currently in late-stage trials. The acquisition’s timing is no coincidence as Pfizer also investigates treatments for gastrointestinal conditions. Pfizer is on a roll, lately. In addition to the o","listText":"Hey&nbsp;Tigers! Do&nbsp;you&nbsp;notice&nbsp;Pfizer's&nbsp;new&nbsp;play? Pfizer&nbsp;announced its&nbsp;acquisition&nbsp;of&nbsp;Arena Pharmaceuticals&nbsp;today in a&nbsp;$6.7 billion deal&nbsp;for the company’s research on inflammatory conditions affecting the stomach and intestine.&nbsp;Pfizer will pay Arena $100/share in cash. Shares of Arena stock nearly&nbsp;doubled&nbsp;yesterday as the company pursues treatments for ulcerative colitis and Crohn’s disease, as well as other dermatological, gastrointestinal, and cardiac conditions — Arena’s etrasimod drug for ulcerative colitis/Crohn’s is currently in late-stage trials. The acquisition’s timing is no coincidence as Pfizer also investigates treatments for gastrointestinal conditions. Pfizer is on a roll, lately. In addition to the o","text":"Hey Tigers! Do you notice Pfizer's new play? Pfizer announced its acquisition of Arena Pharmaceuticals today in a $6.7 billion deal for the company’s research on inflammatory conditions affecting the stomach and intestine. Pfizer will pay Arena $100/share in cash. Shares of Arena stock nearly doubled yesterday as the company pursues treatments for ulcerative colitis and Crohn’s disease, as well as other dermatological, gastrointestinal, and cardiac conditions — Arena’s etrasimod drug for ulcerative colitis/Crohn’s is currently in late-stage trials. The acquisition’s timing is no coincidence as Pfizer also investigates treatments for gastrointestinal conditions. Pfizer is on a roll, lately. In addition to the o","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607944827","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"subType":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1854,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":606733543,"gmtCreate":1638926403834,"gmtModify":1638926403969,"author":{"id":"4090570965971460","authorId":"4090570965971460","name":"KeN3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffc770a2d3626a3e029ba2c461aac13d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090570965971460","idStr":"4090570965971460"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Sold too early.. hopefully can buy in again","listText":"Sold too early.. hopefully can buy in again","text":"Sold too early.. hopefully can buy in again","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/606733543","repostId":"1121607111","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121607111","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1638924899,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1121607111?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-08 08:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Apple Stock Climbed to a New All-Time High Today<blockquote>为什么苹果股价今天攀升至历史新高</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121607111","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"What happened\nShares of Apple ( AAPL 3.55% ) rose 3.5% to a record closing price of $171.18 on Tuesd","content":"<p> <b>What happened</b></p><p><blockquote><b>发生了什么</b></blockquote></p><p> Shares of Apple ( AAPL 3.55% ) rose 3.5% to a record closing price of $171.18 on Tuesday, after an analyst placed a price target on the stock that represents a new high among Wall Street's estimates.</p><p><blockquote>苹果(AAPL 3.55%)股价周二上涨3.5%，至创纪录的收盘价171.18美元，此前一位分析师对该股设定了创华尔街预期新高的目标价。</blockquote></p><p> <b>So what</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那又怎样</b></blockquote></p><p> Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty now sees Apple's shares rising to $200, up from a previous forecast of $164. If she's right, investors could enjoy gains of roughly 17% from today's price.</p><p><blockquote>Morgan Stanley分析师Katy Huberty目前预计苹果股价将升至200美元，高于此前预期的164美元。如果她是对的，投资者可以从今天的价格中获得大约17%的收益。</blockquote></p><p> Huberty sees Apple's share price rising as traders seek out high-quality companies that are thought to be safer investments, now that volatility has returned to the financial markets. She also expects Apple's supply chain challenges to abate in the coming quarters, thereby helping to drive iPhone sales higher.</p><p><blockquote>休伯蒂认为，由于金融市场再次出现波动，交易员正在寻找被认为是更安全投资的优质公司，苹果的股价将会上涨。她还预计，苹果的供应链挑战将在未来几个季度减弱，从而有助于推动iPhone销量走高。</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, Huberty argues that Apple's current stock price does not fully reflect its ability to innovate. The tech giant is reportedly developing augmented reality products and self-driving vehicle technology, which could boost demand for its shares among investors ahead of their expected launch dates.</p><p><blockquote>此外，休伯蒂认为，苹果目前的股价并没有完全反映其创新能力。据报道，这家科技巨头正在开发增强现实产品和自动驾驶汽车技术，这可能会在预期上市日期之前提振投资者对其股票的需求。</blockquote></p><p> \"As we get closer to these products becoming a reality, we believe [Apple's] valuation would need to reflect the optionality of these future opportunities,\" Huberty said.</p><p><blockquote>休伯蒂表示：“随着这些产品越来越接近成为现实，我们相信[苹果]的估值需要反映这些未来机会的可选性。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Now what</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现在怎么办</b></blockquote></p><p> Few companies match Apple's track record of innovation. Time and again, Apple has created game-changing products that have gone on to capture the lion's share of their industries' profits.</p><p><blockquote>很少有公司能与苹果的创新记录相媲美。苹果一次又一次地创造出改变游戏规则的产品，并继续占据行业利润的最大份额。</blockquote></p><p> It's entirely possible that Apple could do so again in the realms of augmented reality and autonomous vehicle technology. In turn, it's conceivable that Apple's share price will ascend to Huberty's $200 price target -- and perhaps even higher -- in the coming year.</p><p><blockquote>苹果完全有可能在增强现实和自动驾驶汽车技术领域再次做到这一点。反过来，可以想象，来年苹果的股价将升至休伯蒂200美元的目标价，甚至可能更高。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Apple Stock Climbed to a New All-Time High Today<blockquote>为什么苹果股价今天攀升至历史新高</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Apple Stock Climbed to a New All-Time High Today<blockquote>为什么苹果股价今天攀升至历史新高</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-08 08:54</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p> <b>What happened</b></p><p><blockquote><b>发生了什么</b></blockquote></p><p> Shares of Apple ( AAPL 3.55% ) rose 3.5% to a record closing price of $171.18 on Tuesday, after an analyst placed a price target on the stock that represents a new high among Wall Street's estimates.</p><p><blockquote>苹果(AAPL 3.55%)股价周二上涨3.5%，至创纪录的收盘价171.18美元，此前一位分析师对该股设定了创华尔街预期新高的目标价。</blockquote></p><p> <b>So what</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那又怎样</b></blockquote></p><p> Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty now sees Apple's shares rising to $200, up from a previous forecast of $164. If she's right, investors could enjoy gains of roughly 17% from today's price.</p><p><blockquote>Morgan Stanley分析师Katy Huberty目前预计苹果股价将升至200美元，高于此前预期的164美元。如果她是对的，投资者可以从今天的价格中获得大约17%的收益。</blockquote></p><p> Huberty sees Apple's share price rising as traders seek out high-quality companies that are thought to be safer investments, now that volatility has returned to the financial markets. She also expects Apple's supply chain challenges to abate in the coming quarters, thereby helping to drive iPhone sales higher.</p><p><blockquote>休伯蒂认为，由于金融市场再次出现波动，交易员正在寻找被认为是更安全投资的优质公司，苹果的股价将会上涨。她还预计，苹果的供应链挑战将在未来几个季度减弱，从而有助于推动iPhone销量走高。</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, Huberty argues that Apple's current stock price does not fully reflect its ability to innovate. The tech giant is reportedly developing augmented reality products and self-driving vehicle technology, which could boost demand for its shares among investors ahead of their expected launch dates.</p><p><blockquote>此外，休伯蒂认为，苹果目前的股价并没有完全反映其创新能力。据报道，这家科技巨头正在开发增强现实产品和自动驾驶汽车技术，这可能会在预期上市日期之前提振投资者对其股票的需求。</blockquote></p><p> \"As we get closer to these products becoming a reality, we believe [Apple's] valuation would need to reflect the optionality of these future opportunities,\" Huberty said.</p><p><blockquote>休伯蒂表示：“随着这些产品越来越接近成为现实，我们相信[苹果]的估值需要反映这些未来机会的可选性。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Now what</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现在怎么办</b></blockquote></p><p> Few companies match Apple's track record of innovation. Time and again, Apple has created game-changing products that have gone on to capture the lion's share of their industries' profits.</p><p><blockquote>很少有公司能与苹果的创新记录相媲美。苹果一次又一次地创造出改变游戏规则的产品，并继续占据行业利润的最大份额。</blockquote></p><p> It's entirely possible that Apple could do so again in the realms of augmented reality and autonomous vehicle technology. In turn, it's conceivable that Apple's share price will ascend to Huberty's $200 price target -- and perhaps even higher -- in the coming year.</p><p><blockquote>苹果完全有可能在增强现实和自动驾驶汽车技术领域再次做到这一点。反过来，可以想象，来年苹果的股价将升至休伯蒂200美元的目标价，甚至可能更高。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/12/07/why-apple-stock-climbed-to-a-new-all-time-high-tod/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/12/07/why-apple-stock-climbed-to-a-new-all-time-high-tod/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121607111","content_text":"What happened\nShares of Apple ( AAPL 3.55% ) rose 3.5% to a record closing price of $171.18 on Tuesday, after an analyst placed a price target on the stock that represents a new high among Wall Street's estimates.\n\nSo what\nMorgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty now sees Apple's shares rising to $200, up from a previous forecast of $164. If she's right, investors could enjoy gains of roughly 17% from today's price.\n\nHuberty sees Apple's share price rising as traders seek out high-quality companies that are thought to be safer investments, now that volatility has returned to the financial markets. She also expects Apple's supply chain challenges to abate in the coming quarters, thereby helping to drive iPhone sales higher.\n\nAdditionally, Huberty argues that Apple's current stock price does not fully reflect its ability to innovate. The tech giant is reportedly developing augmented reality products and self-driving vehicle technology, which could boost demand for its shares among investors ahead of their expected launch dates.\n\n\"As we get closer to these products becoming a reality, we believe [Apple's] valuation would need to reflect the optionality of these future opportunities,\" Huberty said.\n\nNow what\nFew companies match Apple's track record of innovation. Time and again, Apple has created game-changing products that have gone on to capture the lion's share of their industries' profits.\n\nIt's entirely possible that Apple could do so again in the realms of augmented reality and autonomous vehicle technology. In turn, it's conceivable that Apple's share price will ascend to Huberty's $200 price target -- and perhaps even higher -- in the coming year.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2010,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":829635229,"gmtCreate":1633496502532,"gmtModify":1633497112727,"author":{"id":"4090570965971460","authorId":"4090570965971460","name":"KeN3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffc770a2d3626a3e029ba2c461aac13d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090570965971460","idStr":"4090570965971460"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Stocks to look out for","listText":"Stocks to look out for","text":"Stocks to look out for","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/829635229","repostId":"1123518290","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2392,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":820917665,"gmtCreate":1633340319602,"gmtModify":1633340319808,"author":{"id":"4090570965971460","authorId":"4090570965971460","name":"KeN3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffc770a2d3626a3e029ba2c461aac13d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090570965971460","idStr":"4090570965971460"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Prices moving up so fast","listText":"Prices moving up so fast","text":"Prices moving up so fast","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/820917665","repostId":"1137835462","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137835462","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1633334786,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1137835462?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-04 16:06","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla shares rose 1.4% in premarket trading<blockquote>特斯拉股价在盘前交易中上涨1.4%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137835462","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Tesla shares rose 1.4% in premarket trading.\nTesla Inc said on Saturday it had delivered a record el","content":"<p>Tesla&nbsp;shares&nbsp;rose&nbsp;1.4%&nbsp;in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价在盘前交易中上涨1.</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2cab5fe12ed908fae1c4667b858ab877\" tg-width=\"885\" tg-height=\"619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Tesla Inc said on Saturday it had delivered a record electric cars in the third quarter, beating Wall Street estimates after Chief Executive Elon Musk asked staff to \"go super hardcore\" to make a quarter-end delivery push.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉公司周六表示，第三季度电动汽车交付量创历史新高，超出华尔街预期，此前首席执行官Elon Musk要求员工“超级努力”推动季度末交付量。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla has weathered the chip crisis better than rivals, with its overall deliveries surging 20% in the July to September period from its previous record in the second quarter, marking the sixth consecutive quarter-on-quarter gains. </p><p><blockquote>特斯拉比竞争对手更好地度过了芯片危机，其7月至9月期间的整体交付量较第二季度的纪录飙升了20%，这是连续第六个季度环比增长。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla delivered 241,300 vehicles globally in the July to September quarter, up 73% from a year earlier. Analysts had expected the electric-car maker to deliver 229,242 vehicles, according to Refinitiv data.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉7月至9月季度在全球交付了241,300辆汽车，同比增长73%。根据Refinitiv的数据，分析师此前预计这家电动汽车制造商将交付229,242辆汽车。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla shares rose 1.4% in premarket trading<blockquote>特斯拉股价在盘前交易中上涨1.4%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla shares rose 1.4% in premarket trading<blockquote>特斯拉股价在盘前交易中上涨1.4%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-10-04 16:06</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Tesla&nbsp;shares&nbsp;rose&nbsp;1.4%&nbsp;in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价在盘前交易中上涨1.</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2cab5fe12ed908fae1c4667b858ab877\" tg-width=\"885\" tg-height=\"619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Tesla Inc said on Saturday it had delivered a record electric cars in the third quarter, beating Wall Street estimates after Chief Executive Elon Musk asked staff to \"go super hardcore\" to make a quarter-end delivery push.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉公司周六表示，第三季度电动汽车交付量创历史新高，超出华尔街预期，此前首席执行官Elon Musk要求员工“超级努力”推动季度末交付量。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla has weathered the chip crisis better than rivals, with its overall deliveries surging 20% in the July to September period from its previous record in the second quarter, marking the sixth consecutive quarter-on-quarter gains. </p><p><blockquote>特斯拉比竞争对手更好地度过了芯片危机，其7月至9月期间的整体交付量较第二季度的纪录飙升了20%，这是连续第六个季度环比增长。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla delivered 241,300 vehicles globally in the July to September quarter, up 73% from a year earlier. Analysts had expected the electric-car maker to deliver 229,242 vehicles, according to Refinitiv data.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉7月至9月季度在全球交付了241,300辆汽车，同比增长73%。根据Refinitiv的数据，分析师此前预计这家电动汽车制造商将交付229,242辆汽车。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137835462","content_text":"Tesla shares rose 1.4% in premarket trading.\nTesla Inc said on Saturday it had delivered a record electric cars in the third quarter, beating Wall Street estimates after Chief Executive Elon Musk asked staff to \"go super hardcore\" to make a quarter-end delivery push.\nTesla has weathered the chip crisis better than rivals, with its overall deliveries surging 20% in the July to September period from its previous record in the second quarter, marking the sixth consecutive quarter-on-quarter gains. \nTesla delivered 241,300 vehicles globally in the July to September quarter, up 73% from a year earlier. Analysts had expected the electric-car maker to deliver 229,242 vehicles, according to Refinitiv data.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3078,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":889890683,"gmtCreate":1631128608642,"gmtModify":1632884478403,"author":{"id":"4090570965971460","authorId":"4090570965971460","name":"KeN3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffc770a2d3626a3e029ba2c461aac13d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090570965971460","idStr":"4090570965971460"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Sea of red today.....","listText":"Sea of red today.....","text":"Sea of red today.....","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/889890683","repostId":"1152303824","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1152303824","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631113047,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1152303824?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-08 22:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stocks Are Suddenly Puking...<blockquote>股票突然呕吐...</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152303824","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Yesterday it was cryptos, this morning it appears US equities are in line for the monkeyhammering.\nI","content":"<p>Yesterday it was cryptos, this morning it appears US equities are in line for the monkeyhammering.</p><p><blockquote>昨天是cryptos，今天早上美国股市似乎即将遭受重创。</blockquote></p><p> It is unclear what the catalyst for the drop was - it occurred with significant delay from any<b>debt ceiling talk or Manchin's statements</b>- though some are noting the surge in JOLTS could have triggered some weakness as it may bring The Fed closer to tapering.</p><p><blockquote>目前尚不清楚这一下降的催化剂是什么——它的发生与任何<b>债务上限谈话或曼钦的声明</b>-尽管一些人指出，震动的激增可能会引发一些疲软，因为这可能会使美联储更接近缩减规模。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3e5ef549e107c935e4c60595e1332e2\" tg-width=\"1198\" tg-height=\"719\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The dollar is spiking at the same time...</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，美元正在飙升...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b472f02fa36cafd99491efa8113cbde\" tg-width=\"944\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">As&nbsp;SpotGamma notes,<b>there is a major inflection point (support) specifically at 4490 and major support at 4440</b>.</p><p><blockquote>正如SpotGamma指出的那样，<b>大拐点（支撑）具体在4490，大支撑在4440</b>.</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9295f0b196cb1e2e6c014b1dcdaf3a95\" tg-width=\"1067\" tg-height=\"528\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">We think it would take some type of fundamental push to break that level.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为需要某种类型的基本面推动才能突破该水平。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/514c13b2f8c4c99c5cd3eace81c51347\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"710\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In other words, things could get “chippy” but we don’t see things positioned for a large drawdown (&gt;1%).</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，事情可能会变得“轻松”，但我们认为事情不会出现大幅下跌（&gt;1%）。</blockquote></p><p> The big question is - What will Robert Kaplan do?</p><p><blockquote>最大的问题是——罗伯特·卡普兰会怎么做？</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stocks Are Suddenly Puking...<blockquote>股票突然呕吐...</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStocks Are Suddenly Puking...<blockquote>股票突然呕吐...</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-08 22:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Yesterday it was cryptos, this morning it appears US equities are in line for the monkeyhammering.</p><p><blockquote>昨天是cryptos，今天早上美国股市似乎即将遭受重创。</blockquote></p><p> It is unclear what the catalyst for the drop was - it occurred with significant delay from any<b>debt ceiling talk or Manchin's statements</b>- though some are noting the surge in JOLTS could have triggered some weakness as it may bring The Fed closer to tapering.</p><p><blockquote>目前尚不清楚这一下降的催化剂是什么——它的发生与任何<b>债务上限谈话或曼钦的声明</b>-尽管一些人指出，震动的激增可能会引发一些疲软，因为这可能会使美联储更接近缩减规模。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3e5ef549e107c935e4c60595e1332e2\" tg-width=\"1198\" tg-height=\"719\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The dollar is spiking at the same time...</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，美元正在飙升...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b472f02fa36cafd99491efa8113cbde\" tg-width=\"944\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">As&nbsp;SpotGamma notes,<b>there is a major inflection point (support) specifically at 4490 and major support at 4440</b>.</p><p><blockquote>正如SpotGamma指出的那样，<b>大拐点（支撑）具体在4490，大支撑在4440</b>.</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9295f0b196cb1e2e6c014b1dcdaf3a95\" tg-width=\"1067\" tg-height=\"528\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">We think it would take some type of fundamental push to break that level.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为需要某种类型的基本面推动才能突破该水平。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/514c13b2f8c4c99c5cd3eace81c51347\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"710\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In other words, things could get “chippy” but we don’t see things positioned for a large drawdown (&gt;1%).</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，事情可能会变得“轻松”，但我们认为事情不会出现大幅下跌（&gt;1%）。</blockquote></p><p> The big question is - What will Robert Kaplan do?</p><p><blockquote>最大的问题是——罗伯特·卡普兰会怎么做？</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-are-suddenly-puking?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-are-suddenly-puking?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152303824","content_text":"Yesterday it was cryptos, this morning it appears US equities are in line for the monkeyhammering.\nIt is unclear what the catalyst for the drop was - it occurred with significant delay from anydebt ceiling talk or Manchin's statements- though some are noting the surge in JOLTS could have triggered some weakness as it may bring The Fed closer to tapering.\nThe dollar is spiking at the same time...\nAs SpotGamma notes,there is a major inflection point (support) specifically at 4490 and major support at 4440.\nWe think it would take some type of fundamental push to break that level.\nIn other words, things could get “chippy” but we don’t see things positioned for a large drawdown (>1%).\nThe big question is - What will Robert Kaplan do?","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1894,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":880126929,"gmtCreate":1631026175861,"gmtModify":1632904489498,"author":{"id":"4090570965971460","authorId":"4090570965971460","name":"KeN3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffc770a2d3626a3e029ba2c461aac13d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090570965971460","idStr":"4090570965971460"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Not invested enough before this rise. Will need to buy in more to see the significance&nbsp;","listText":"Not invested enough before this rise. Will need to buy in more to see the significance&nbsp;","text":"Not invested enough before this rise. Will need to buy in more to see the significance","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/880126929","repostId":"1148433063","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1425,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":815352738,"gmtCreate":1630648763424,"gmtModify":1631883982194,"author":{"id":"4090570965971460","authorId":"4090570965971460","name":"KeN3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffc770a2d3626a3e029ba2c461aac13d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090570965971460","idStr":"4090570965971460"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"What goes up will eventually come down. Just have to exit before the fall","listText":"What goes up will eventually come down. Just have to exit before the fall","text":"What goes up will eventually come down. Just have to exit before the fall","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/815352738","repostId":"1115112299","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1115112299","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630641559,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1115112299?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-03 11:59","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What Will Happen When Trillions In Stimulus Run Out In 2022?<blockquote>2022年数万亿刺激用完会发生什么？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115112299","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe US economy and stock market have benefitted from an unprecedented amount of stimulus in","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The US economy and stock market have benefitted from an unprecedented amount of stimulus in 2021.</li>  <li>With expanded unemployment set to end, student loan &amp; mortgage forbearance to end, and a possible corporate tax rate hike on the horizon, it's possible 2022 earnings estimates for stocks are simply too high.</li>  <li>In light of this, the broad stock market faces an unattractive risk-reward proposition.</li>  <li>I break down the possibilities and game plan with expert value/dividend investor Sam Kovacs.</li> </ul> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>2021年，美国经济和股市受益于前所未有的刺激措施。</li><li>随着失业扩大即将结束，学生贷款和抵押贷款忍耐即将结束，以及企业税率可能上调，2022年股市盈利预期可能太高了。</li><li>有鉴于此，整个股市面临着一个没有吸引力的风险回报命题。</li><li>我与专家价值/股息投资者萨姆·科瓦奇一起分析了可能性和游戏计划。</li></ul><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> <i>Logan–</i>The United States government has turned to an unprecedented amount of fiscal and monetary stimulus to help the economy through the COVID-19 pandemic. Notable examples include multiple rounds of stimulus checks, the student loan pause, mortgage forbearance/eviction moratorium, PPP, and enhanced unemployment benefits. So far, this effort seems to have been successful, although critics point out that it has resulted in significant increases in inflation. However, the political and economic reality is that the US can't run $3 trillion deficits forever, at least without everyone implicitly paying for it via higher consumer prices compared to their earnings.</p><p><blockquote><i>洛根-</i>美国政府已经转向前所未有的财政和货币刺激措施，以帮助经济度过新冠肺炎疫情。值得注意的例子包括多轮刺激检查、学生贷款暂停、抵押贷款延期/驱逐暂停、PPP和提高失业福利。到目前为止，这一努力似乎是成功的，尽管批评者指出，这导致了通货膨胀的显著上升。然而，政治和经济现实是，美国不可能永远保持3万亿美元的赤字，至少在每个人都没有通过高于其收入的消费者价格来隐性支付赤字的情况下。</blockquote></p><p> The weight of theevidence suggeststhat prices are rising faster than wages. In turn, the government has stepped in to fill this gap with stimulus payments, but the trillion-dollar question is what happens when the economy has to run on its own productivity–rather than on temporary transfer payments. For 2021, thanks to pent-up demand and stimulus, S&amp;P 500 components are expected to smash the record for the highest amount ever earned in a year (somewhere between $200 and $205 per share for 2021, vs. the previous record of $163 in 2019). Wall Street analysts additionally expect the S&amp;P 500 to earn~$215 per share in 2022, which would be yet another record. When you pull numbers forproductivity and economic output, the picture isn't as great, which helps explain why there are so many shortages of goods and services right now. If you feel that the change in nominal economic output is more indicative of what corporations can earn over the medium term (taking away the impact of consumers spending temporary transfer payments), you get an earnings number for the S&amp;P 500 closer to $180, which is about 15 percent lower than Wall Street is currently expecting.</p><p><blockquote>大量证据表明，物价上涨速度快于工资上涨速度。反过来，政府已经介入，通过刺激支付来填补这一缺口，但万亿美元的问题是，当经济不得不依靠自身生产力而不是临时转移支付来运行时会发生什么。2021年，由于被压抑的需求和刺激措施，标普500组件预计将打破一年内最高收入记录（2021年每股收入在200美元至205美元之间，而2019年的纪录为163美元）。此外，华尔街分析师预计标普500 2022年每股收益约为215美元，这将再创历史新高。当你计算生产率和经济产出的数字时，情况就不那么好了，这有助于解释为什么现在商品和服务如此短缺。如果你认为名义经济产出的变化更能反映企业在中期内的收入（剔除消费者支出临时转移支付的影响），你会得到标普500的收入数字接近180美元，这比华尔街目前的预期低约15%。</blockquote></p><p> Putting further pressure on earnings is the potential corporate tax hike from 21 percent to 25 percent, which will decrease S&amp;P 500 earnings by 5 percent, all else being equal. Political betting markets show that this has a roughly50/50 chance of becoming lawat the moment. With many investors making easy money piling into low-conviction, high momentum names, the consequences of unwinding stimulus could be a shock to their portfolio balances. Helping me make sense of the stimulus unwind is fellow<i>Seeking Alpha</i>authorSam Kovacs.Although living halfway across the world from me here in suburban Texas, Sam and I think eerily alike about the markets, gravitating to high-quality stocks with solid earnings and dividends.</p><p><blockquote>给盈利带来进一步压力的是潜在的公司税从21%提高到25%，在其他条件相同的情况下，这将使标普500的盈利减少5%。政治博彩市场显示，这有大约50/50的机会成为lawat时刻。随着许多轻松赚钱的投资者涌入低信心、高势头的股票，取消刺激措施的后果可能会对他们的投资组合平衡造成冲击。帮助我理解刺激放松是同伴<i>寻求阿尔法</i>作者萨姆·科瓦奇。尽管住在德克萨斯州郊区，与我相隔半个地球，但我和萨姆对市场的看法却出奇地相似，都被具有稳定收益和股息的优质股票所吸引。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Sam–</i>Within the first couple of months of the Fed’s reaction to the pandemic, I was concerned that they would be placing themselves between a rock and a hard place. I would not have wanted to be in Powell’s shoes, but then again there aren’t many government jobs I’d consider taking. Striking a balance between pulling stimulus too early and risking runaway inflation is no easy task. The government has looked to prior crashes and decided that risking inflation was the way to go.</p><p><blockquote><i>山姆-</i>在美联储对疫情做出反应的头几个月里，我担心他们会进退两难。我不想站在鲍威尔的立场上，但话说回来，我会考虑接受的政府工作并不多。在过早取消刺激措施和通胀失控风险之间取得平衡绝非易事。政府回顾了之前的崩盘，并决定冒通胀风险是正确的选择。</blockquote></p><p> Keep telling the people that it is “transitory” and surely it will be. But anyone who has taken Econ 101 knows that inflation feeds on itself. At first, companies are reactionary, but then they become proactive in pricing measures. Here are a few snippets.</p><p><blockquote>不断告诉人们这是“暂时的”，而且肯定会是。但是任何学过经济学101的人都知道，通货膨胀是自我驱动的。起初，公司是反动的，但后来它们在定价措施上变得积极主动。这里有几个片段。</blockquote></p><p> From Hormel's (HRL) latestcall:</p><p><blockquote>来自荷美尔(HRL)的最新电话：</blockquote></p><p> <i>We have taken numerous pricing actions across the portfolio to protect profitability. The actions will take place early in the third quarter with additional pricing actions likely.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>我们在整个投资组合中采取了大量定价行动来保护盈利能力。这些行动将在第三季度初进行，并可能采取额外的定价行动。</i></blockquote></p><p> From Conagra's (CAG) latestcall:</p><p><blockquote>来自康尼格拉(CAG)的最新电话：</blockquote></p><p> <i>And the short answer is yes. In fact, we began implementing pricing actions on some of our products in the quarter related to the initial inflation we experienced. The very early read on the data from those actions is that our elasticities look good so far. And we have more pricing coming.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>简短的回答是肯定的。事实上，我们在本季度开始对一些产品实施与我们经历的最初通货膨胀相关的定价行动。对这些行动数据的早期解读是，到目前为止，我们的弹性看起来不错。我们还将推出更多定价。</i></blockquote></p><p> There will be no shortage of inflation in food in upcoming quarters. Oil price still has a couple of quarters of weak comparables which continue to contribute to higher headline inflation rates.</p><p><blockquote>未来几个季度不会出现食品通胀。油价仍有几个季度的疲软可比数据，这继续导致整体通胀率上升。</blockquote></p><p> Food &amp; transportation, along with housing are the major costs of US households. For1/6thof adults, you can throw in student loans as well. US consumers have been able to absorb the inflation on the back of various stimulus efforts.</p><p><blockquote>食品、交通以及住房是美国家庭的主要开支。对于1/6的成年人，你也可以提供学生贷款。在各种刺激措施的支持下，美国消费者已经能够吸收通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But the stimulus can’t last forever. Part of it is being extended as Delta is slowing (not killing) the recovery. What happens when the different forms of stimulus fade? That’s what we’re going to look at in the rest of the article.</p><p><blockquote>但刺激不可能永远持续下去。由于达美航空正在减缓（而不是扼杀）复苏，其中一部分正在延长。当不同形式的刺激消退时会发生什么？这就是我们将在本文的其余部分中讨论的内容。</blockquote></p><p> The Eviction/Foreclosure Moratorium</p><p><blockquote>暂停驱逐/取消抵押品赎回权</blockquote></p><p> <i>Logan–</i>Foreclosures have started again, and the Supreme Court recentlystruck downthe eviction moratorium imposed by the CDC. By my last count, there are about1.5 million householdswho are in forbearance programs at the moment (i.e. not paying their mortgages), against somewhere in the ballpark of 50 million mortgages in the US. Foreclosure is a process, not an event, and the most common outcome is that people get behind on their payments, try to work with the bank for 6-12 months, and then eventually sell, collect their equity, and move somewhere cheaper. The problem in 2008 was that borrowers had negative equity on their mortgages, so it short-circuited this process. This isn't the case now–I don't see a systematic risk to the economy from foreclosures. Around 6-7 million houses in the US are bought and sold in a typical year, meaning in a vacuum, most people who are behind could sell over a 6-12 month period, and it would be a win-win for those struggling with the shortage of houses to buy and those who can't make payments on the ones they own. The Fed taper might complicate this. If mortgage rates go back up to the ~4 percent they've averaged over the last 10 years at the same time people are unloading houses they've been in forbearance on, prices are going to come down more.</p><p><blockquote><i>洛根-</i>止赎又开始了，最高法院最近推翻了疾病预防控制中心实施的驱逐禁令。根据我的最新统计，目前约有150万家庭处于延期计划中（即不支付抵押贷款），而美国的抵押贷款数量约为5000万。止赎是一个过程，而不是一个事件，最常见的结果是人们拖欠付款，试图与银行合作6-12个月，然后最终出售，收集他们的股权，并搬到更便宜的地方。2008年的问题是借款人的抵押贷款为负资产，因此它缩短了这一过程。现在的情况并非如此——我不认为取消抵押品赎回权会给经济带来系统性风险。在美国，一年大约有600-700万套房屋被买卖，这意味着在真空中，大多数落后的人可以在6-12个月的时间内出售，这对于那些为购买房屋短缺而苦苦挣扎的人和那些无法支付所拥有房屋的人来说是双赢的。美联储缩减规模可能会使情况变得复杂。如果抵押贷款利率回到过去10年的平均4%左右，同时人们正在抛售他们一直忍住的房子，价格将会进一步下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Evictions are messier–there are millions of people not paying rent and living off the extra money. When they have to start paying rent again somewhere else, their household budgets are going to dramatically shrink. Roughly 2-3 percent of American households are significantly behind on rent, so I would expect a lot of both formal and informal (cash for keys) evictions. This has to negatively affect consumer spending, and earnings estimates that ignore the unwind of stimulus are not properly accounting for it.</p><p><blockquote>驱逐更加混乱——有数百万人不付房租，靠额外的钱生活。当他们不得不在其他地方重新开始支付房租时，他们的家庭预算将会大幅缩水。大约2-3%的美国家庭严重拖欠租金，所以我预计会有很多正式和非正式的（现金换钥匙）驱逐。这必然会对消费者支出产生负面影响，而忽视刺激措施放松的盈利预测也没有正确考虑到这一点。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Sam–</i>The risk here is not so much on the real estate market, as Logan correctly summarized, but rather the knock-on effects on consumption.</p><p><blockquote><i>山姆-</i>正如洛根正确总结的那样，这里的风险与其说是房地产市场，不如说是对消费的连锁反应。</blockquote></p><p> The end of the federal eviction moratorium is a boon for apartment REITs which can resume collecting rent. However, that doesn’t mean investors should pile into residential REITs. have gone from deeply undervalued back to historically overvalued, as the below MAD Chart for Essex Property (ESS) shows. We previously suggested investors sell ESS.</p><p><blockquote>联邦驱逐禁令的结束对可以恢复收取租金的公寓房地产投资信托基金来说是一个福音。然而，这并不意味着投资者应该涌入住宅房地产投资信托基金。正如下面埃塞克斯地产(ESS)的MAD图表所示，已经从严重低估回到历史高估。我们之前建议投资者出售ESS。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc5c631a8b25f6a52735e699fbc69b29\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"293\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source:Dividend Freedom Tribe</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：股息自由部落</i></blockquote></p><p> Looking at the other residential REITs on the block, the same picture emerges. AvalonBay Communities (AVB) also is historically overvalued.</p><p><blockquote>看看该街区的其他住宅房地产投资信托基金，也会出现同样的情况。AvalonBay Communities(AVB)历来也被高估。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e17980a72bfba653b02553382a920419\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"315\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Dividend Freedom Tribe</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：股息自由部落</i></blockquote></p><p> None seem more overvalued relative to their historical normal range of prices than Camden Property Trust (CPT) which could easily come down by 1/3rdon a change in sentiment.</p><p><blockquote>相对于其历史正常价格范围，似乎没有比卡姆登房地产信托(CPT)更高估的了，如果情绪发生变化，卡姆登房地产信托(CPT)很容易下跌1/3。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/136a7707c3add17401e4dd4047278e14\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"303\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Dividend Freedom Tribe</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：股息自由部落</i></blockquote></p><p> I believe that this trade has passed. We bought ESS about a year ago, and have been selling it throughout the past few months.</p><p><blockquote>我相信这笔交易已经过去了。我们大约一年前购买了ESS，并在过去几个月里一直在出售它。</blockquote></p><p> Taking profits now in these industries makes sense: “buy the rumor/sell the news”.</p><p><blockquote>现在在这些行业获利了结是有道理的：“买入谣言/卖出消息”。</blockquote></p><p> If we’re looking ahead, we’re seeing one lever which will pressure consumption for a certain part of the population.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们展望未来，我们会看到一个杠杆将给某一部分人口的消费带来压力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Student Loan Forbearance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>学生贷款延期</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <i>Logan–</i>The Biden Administration extended the student loan pause until January 31, 2022. 1 in 6 adults in the US has student loans, with an average balance of ~$40,000. Most borrowers are under 30, a group that spends a higher percentage of their income than, say a 50-year old saving for retirement. Hit 1 in 6 American adults with an average$400 per month payment, paid with mostly post-tax dollars, and that's like stimulus in reverse. Anecdotally, almost no one I know who has student loans is currently paying them. The extra money they're getting from not paying loans is generally either being spent on consumption, invested in cryptocurrency, or in meme stocks like GameStop (GME). This is a decent threat to consumer spending, and there isn't an easy way out. The left wing of the Democratic Party in the US wants to cancel most or all student loans, but the main problem with this is that much of the debt is held by middle and upper-middle-class professionals, which would create a moral hazard as well as redistribute wealth from people lower on the socioeconomic ladder (for example, people who work in trades and pay their income taxes) to those of higher social class (for example, indebted white-collar college graduates). We're talking$1.7+ trillion in US student loansthat are generally not being serviced by those who owe it for this 21 month period. When those kick in again, consumer spending is not going to be higher than it is now. 2022 earnings estimates are mostly blind to this fact.</p><p><blockquote><i>洛根-</i>拜登政府将学生贷款暂停期限延长至2022年1月31日。美国六分之一的成年人拥有学生贷款，平均余额约为4万美元。大多数借款人年龄在30岁以下，这个群体的支出占其收入的比例高于50岁的退休储蓄。六分之一的美国成年人平均每月支付400美元，大部分是税后美元，这就像是反向刺激。有趣的是，我认识的有学生贷款的人目前几乎没有人在偿还贷款。他们因不偿还贷款而获得的额外资金通常要么用于消费、投资加密货币，要么投资于游戏驿站(GME)等模因股票。这对消费者支出构成了相当大的威胁，而且没有简单的解决办法。美国民主党左翼希望取消大部分或全部学生贷款，但这样做的主要问题是，大部分债务由中产阶级和中上阶层的专业人士持有，这将造成道德风险，并将财富从社会经济阶梯较低的人（例如，从事贸易并缴纳所得税的人）重新分配到较高的社会阶层（例如，负债累累的白领大学毕业生）。我们谈论的是1.7多万亿美元的美国学生贷款，这些贷款在这21个月内通常没有被那些欠债的人偿还。当这些因素再次发挥作用时，消费者支出不会比现在高。2022年的盈利预测大多对这一事实视而不见。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Sam–</i>When Logan and I initially discussed this article, this seemed to be the easiest form of stimulus for the government to keep giving. Since most of the loans are federal, a pause on the payments doesn’t explicitly hurt anyone enough to complain. And since the handouts are not direct, critics aren’t as vocal as they are with stimulus checks. The money which has been put into various investments, be it stock or crypto, will come out when they have to start servicing debt again. Whether this has enough of an impact to move markets is questionable, but the retail meme stocks could finally have their day of reckoning as a large portion of the population has to resume payments. The aftermath of removing the pause on debt servicing will be harsh for an important part of the population. At least you’ll still be able to watch a movie at AMC Theater (AMC).</p><p><blockquote><i>山姆-</i>当洛根和我最初讨论这篇文章时，这似乎是政府继续给予的最容易的刺激形式。由于大多数贷款都是联邦贷款，暂停付款不会对任何人造成足够的伤害来抱怨。由于施舍不是直接的，批评者不像对刺激支票那样直言不讳。投入各种投资的资金，无论是股票还是加密货币，将在他们不得不再次开始偿还债务时流出。这是否会产生足够的影响来推动市场值得怀疑，但随着很大一部分人必须恢复支付，零售模因股票最终可能会迎来清算日。取消暂停偿债的后果对很大一部分人口来说将是严酷的。至少您仍然可以在AMC剧院(AMC)观看电影。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Enhanced Unemployment &amp; Stimulus Checks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>加强失业和刺激检查</b></blockquote></p><p> Logan- Enhanced unemployment runs out on September 6, and there are 11 million people who won't be getting it after that week. This is $3.3 billion per week that the Federal government is dripping out to unemployed persons, which in turn is a lot less than it was 12 months ago. When it's gone, it's yet another piece of the puzzle that will rein in consumer spending. Stimulus checks were another source of income for many Americans over the last 18 months. A family of 4 making the median income would have seen a stimulus check in March of $5,600, in addition to the prior payments under the Trump Administration. These aren't going to be going out anymore, and for middle-income Americans, this means that they won't be able to spend as much money as they have before. The expanded child tax credit may make up for this and is probably a more efficient means of getting money out, but it expires also in its current form in December.</p><p><blockquote>洛根——增强失业将于9月6日到期，在那一周之后，有1100万人将无法领取失业救济金。联邦政府每周向失业者发放33亿美元，这比12个月前要少得多。当它消失时，它将成为抑制消费者支出的又一块拼图。在过去的18个月里，刺激支票是许多美国人的另一个收入来源。除了特朗普政府之前的付款外，一个收入中位数的4口之家在3月份还会看到5600美元的刺激支票。这些不会再出去了，对于中等收入的美国人来说，这意味着他们将无法像以前那样花那么多钱。扩大的儿童税收抵免可能会弥补这一点，并且可能是一种更有效的提款方式，但目前的形式也将于12月到期。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Sam–</i>Enhanced Unemployment is running out in a few days, we’re likely to see many of the 8 million Americans who are looking for a job finally find one amongthe 10 million job openings. As of the time of writing, job data is to be posted in the next few hours. Strong job numbers could kick off a Fed taper sooner than expected.</p><p><blockquote><i>山姆-</i>失业率的上升将在几天内消失，我们可能会看到800万正在找工作的美国人中的许多人最终在1000万个职位空缺中找到一个。截至撰写本文时，工作数据将在未来几个小时内发布。强劲的就业数据可能会比预期更早启动美联储缩减规模。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion: What Is Yet to Come?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论：接下来会发生什么？</b></blockquote></p><p> <i>Logan–</i>High profile earnings misses from the likes of Amazon (AMZN), Zoom Video (ZM), and Peloton (PTON) suggest that at least on a micro level, analysts assumed that good times would last forever for companies that benefitted from temporary changes resulting from the pandemic. Whether this is true on a macro level is a strong possibility, and depending on how the rest of earnings results come in for the rest of the year, it may end up becoming a reality. While it isn't set in stone that the market should necessarily go down significantly in price because of this, it's hard to deny that the risk-reward tradeoff for the market has deteriorated over the past 6-12 months. Now is a good time to dial back risk, if at all possible. A good defense, in both of our views, is to invest in high-quality companies rather than popular high-momentum stocks with middling fundamentals, and to take a long-term perspective.</p><p><blockquote><i>洛根-</i>亚马逊(AMZN)、Zoom Video(ZM)和Peloton(PTON)等公司的盈利大幅下滑表明，至少在微观层面上，分析师认为，对于那些受益于暂时变化的公司来说，美好时光将永远持续下去。大流行。从宏观层面来看，这是否属实的可能性很大，而且取决于今年剩余时间的盈利结果，它最终可能会成为现实。虽然市场价格并不一定会因此大幅下跌，但很难否认市场的风险回报权衡在过去6-12个月中已经恶化。如果可能的话，现在是降低风险的好时机。在我们看来，一个好的防御是投资于优质公司，而不是基本面中等的热门高动能股票，并从长远角度来看。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <i>Sam–</i>The inflation train has left the station. Powell believes it is transitory, I believe that it might be partially transitory, but the abundance of fiscal stimulus has kicked up a cycle of inflation which will be above 2% for quite some time. The Covid delta variant has softened some economic indicators like eating out in restaurants or travel, but as the country’s case count is already peaking, the economy is set to continue heating up.</p><p><blockquote><i>山姆-</i>充气列车已经离开车站了。鲍威尔认为这是暂时的，我认为这可能是部分暂时的，但大量的财政刺激已经启动了通胀周期，通胀将在相当长的一段时间内保持在2%以上。新冠疫情德尔塔变异毒株削弱了外出就餐或旅行等一些经济指标，但随着该国病例数已经达到峰值，经济将继续升温。</blockquote></p><p> This will lead to a taper. Higher rates, or even the expectation of higher rates, will lead to a change in discount rates, which is a fancy way to say future profits are worthless.</p><p><blockquote>这将导致锥度。更高的利率，甚至更高利率的预期，都会导致贴现率的变化，这是一种说未来利润一文不值的奇特方式。</blockquote></p><p> Investors want to take a hard look at their portfolios and ask whether they have positions which are overvalued beyond reason?</p><p><blockquote>投资者希望仔细审视他们的投资组合，并询问他们是否拥有被过度高估的头寸？</blockquote></p><p> No need to look at obscure parts of the market, this is playing out in the S&amp;P 500 (SPY).</p><p><blockquote>无需关注市场中不起眼的部分，这正在标普500（SPDR标普500指数ETF）上演。</blockquote></p><p> For instance, I cannot fathom how a stock like Intuit (INTU) currently trades at 16x sales? Even on its lofty usual measure of 8-9x sales, this is unusually high. Compare it to the stock's historical dividend, and the reading is off the wall.</p><p><blockquote>例如，我无法理解像Intuit(INTU)这样的股票目前的交易价格是销售额的16倍？即使按照通常8-9倍的销售额来衡量，这也是异常高的。将其与该股票的历史股息进行比较，读数是惊人的。</blockquote></p><p> Investors want to focus on companies with strong earnings power, large-scale operations, which are trading at relatively cheap valuations.</p><p><blockquote>投资者希望关注盈利能力强、经营规模大、估值相对便宜的公司。</blockquote></p><p> Among those that come to mind in the top 100 stocks are Amgen (AMGN) which currently yields over 3%.</p><p><blockquote>前100名股票中我想到的是安进(AMGN)，该公司目前的收益率超过3%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd53f68bc9f02f82e05458098625b0a7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"297\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Dividend Freedom Tribe</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：股息自由部落</i></blockquote></p><p> Philip Morris International (PM), Broadcom (AVGO), and Morgan Stanley (MS.PK) are also undervalued relative to their historical valuations.</p><p><blockquote>菲利普莫里斯国际（PM）、博通（AVGO）和摩根士丹利（MS.PK）相对于其历史估值也被低估。</blockquote></p><p> In such an environment, focus on quality is a must. Focus on value is a close second. We’re looking to buy the highest quality assets with growth prospects at a decent price. We’re very cautious that stimulus unwinding will hit consumption which will hit earning results. Big misses from overvalued names spells trouble. The responsible thing to do is to scale out of stocks when they become overvalued.</p><p><blockquote>在这样的环境下，注重质量是必须的。关注价值紧随其后。我们希望以合理的价格购买具有增长前景的最优质资产。我们非常谨慎地认为，刺激措施的取消将打击消费，从而影响盈利结果。估值过高的名字的重大失误会带来麻烦。负责任的做法是在股票估值过高时退出。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What Will Happen When Trillions In Stimulus Run Out In 2022?<blockquote>2022年数万亿刺激用完会发生什么？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat Will Happen When Trillions In Stimulus Run Out In 2022?<blockquote>2022年数万亿刺激用完会发生什么？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-03 11:59</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The US economy and stock market have benefitted from an unprecedented amount of stimulus in 2021.</li>  <li>With expanded unemployment set to end, student loan &amp; mortgage forbearance to end, and a possible corporate tax rate hike on the horizon, it's possible 2022 earnings estimates for stocks are simply too high.</li>  <li>In light of this, the broad stock market faces an unattractive risk-reward proposition.</li>  <li>I break down the possibilities and game plan with expert value/dividend investor Sam Kovacs.</li> </ul> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>2021年，美国经济和股市受益于前所未有的刺激措施。</li><li>随着失业扩大即将结束，学生贷款和抵押贷款忍耐即将结束，以及企业税率可能上调，2022年股市盈利预期可能太高了。</li><li>有鉴于此，整个股市面临着一个没有吸引力的风险回报命题。</li><li>我与专家价值/股息投资者萨姆·科瓦奇一起分析了可能性和游戏计划。</li></ul><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> <i>Logan–</i>The United States government has turned to an unprecedented amount of fiscal and monetary stimulus to help the economy through the COVID-19 pandemic. Notable examples include multiple rounds of stimulus checks, the student loan pause, mortgage forbearance/eviction moratorium, PPP, and enhanced unemployment benefits. So far, this effort seems to have been successful, although critics point out that it has resulted in significant increases in inflation. However, the political and economic reality is that the US can't run $3 trillion deficits forever, at least without everyone implicitly paying for it via higher consumer prices compared to their earnings.</p><p><blockquote><i>洛根-</i>美国政府已经转向前所未有的财政和货币刺激措施，以帮助经济度过新冠肺炎疫情。值得注意的例子包括多轮刺激检查、学生贷款暂停、抵押贷款延期/驱逐暂停、PPP和提高失业福利。到目前为止，这一努力似乎是成功的，尽管批评者指出，这导致了通货膨胀的显著上升。然而，政治和经济现实是，美国不可能永远保持3万亿美元的赤字，至少在每个人都没有通过高于其收入的消费者价格来隐性支付赤字的情况下。</blockquote></p><p> The weight of theevidence suggeststhat prices are rising faster than wages. In turn, the government has stepped in to fill this gap with stimulus payments, but the trillion-dollar question is what happens when the economy has to run on its own productivity–rather than on temporary transfer payments. For 2021, thanks to pent-up demand and stimulus, S&amp;P 500 components are expected to smash the record for the highest amount ever earned in a year (somewhere between $200 and $205 per share for 2021, vs. the previous record of $163 in 2019). Wall Street analysts additionally expect the S&amp;P 500 to earn~$215 per share in 2022, which would be yet another record. When you pull numbers forproductivity and economic output, the picture isn't as great, which helps explain why there are so many shortages of goods and services right now. If you feel that the change in nominal economic output is more indicative of what corporations can earn over the medium term (taking away the impact of consumers spending temporary transfer payments), you get an earnings number for the S&amp;P 500 closer to $180, which is about 15 percent lower than Wall Street is currently expecting.</p><p><blockquote>大量证据表明，物价上涨速度快于工资上涨速度。反过来，政府已经介入，通过刺激支付来填补这一缺口，但万亿美元的问题是，当经济不得不依靠自身生产力而不是临时转移支付来运行时会发生什么。2021年，由于被压抑的需求和刺激措施，标普500组件预计将打破一年内最高收入记录（2021年每股收入在200美元至205美元之间，而2019年的纪录为163美元）。此外，华尔街分析师预计标普500 2022年每股收益约为215美元，这将再创历史新高。当你计算生产率和经济产出的数字时，情况就不那么好了，这有助于解释为什么现在商品和服务如此短缺。如果你认为名义经济产出的变化更能反映企业在中期内的收入（剔除消费者支出临时转移支付的影响），你会得到标普500的收入数字接近180美元，这比华尔街目前的预期低约15%。</blockquote></p><p> Putting further pressure on earnings is the potential corporate tax hike from 21 percent to 25 percent, which will decrease S&amp;P 500 earnings by 5 percent, all else being equal. Political betting markets show that this has a roughly50/50 chance of becoming lawat the moment. With many investors making easy money piling into low-conviction, high momentum names, the consequences of unwinding stimulus could be a shock to their portfolio balances. Helping me make sense of the stimulus unwind is fellow<i>Seeking Alpha</i>authorSam Kovacs.Although living halfway across the world from me here in suburban Texas, Sam and I think eerily alike about the markets, gravitating to high-quality stocks with solid earnings and dividends.</p><p><blockquote>给盈利带来进一步压力的是潜在的公司税从21%提高到25%，在其他条件相同的情况下，这将使标普500的盈利减少5%。政治博彩市场显示，这有大约50/50的机会成为lawat时刻。随着许多轻松赚钱的投资者涌入低信心、高势头的股票，取消刺激措施的后果可能会对他们的投资组合平衡造成冲击。帮助我理解刺激放松是同伴<i>寻求阿尔法</i>作者萨姆·科瓦奇。尽管住在德克萨斯州郊区，与我相隔半个地球，但我和萨姆对市场的看法却出奇地相似，都被具有稳定收益和股息的优质股票所吸引。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Sam–</i>Within the first couple of months of the Fed’s reaction to the pandemic, I was concerned that they would be placing themselves between a rock and a hard place. I would not have wanted to be in Powell’s shoes, but then again there aren’t many government jobs I’d consider taking. Striking a balance between pulling stimulus too early and risking runaway inflation is no easy task. The government has looked to prior crashes and decided that risking inflation was the way to go.</p><p><blockquote><i>山姆-</i>在美联储对疫情做出反应的头几个月里，我担心他们会进退两难。我不想站在鲍威尔的立场上，但话说回来，我会考虑接受的政府工作并不多。在过早取消刺激措施和通胀失控风险之间取得平衡绝非易事。政府回顾了之前的崩盘，并决定冒通胀风险是正确的选择。</blockquote></p><p> Keep telling the people that it is “transitory” and surely it will be. But anyone who has taken Econ 101 knows that inflation feeds on itself. At first, companies are reactionary, but then they become proactive in pricing measures. Here are a few snippets.</p><p><blockquote>不断告诉人们这是“暂时的”，而且肯定会是。但是任何学过经济学101的人都知道，通货膨胀是自我驱动的。起初，公司是反动的，但后来它们在定价措施上变得积极主动。这里有几个片段。</blockquote></p><p> From Hormel's (HRL) latestcall:</p><p><blockquote>来自荷美尔(HRL)的最新电话：</blockquote></p><p> <i>We have taken numerous pricing actions across the portfolio to protect profitability. The actions will take place early in the third quarter with additional pricing actions likely.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>我们在整个投资组合中采取了大量定价行动来保护盈利能力。这些行动将在第三季度初进行，并可能采取额外的定价行动。</i></blockquote></p><p> From Conagra's (CAG) latestcall:</p><p><blockquote>来自康尼格拉(CAG)的最新电话：</blockquote></p><p> <i>And the short answer is yes. In fact, we began implementing pricing actions on some of our products in the quarter related to the initial inflation we experienced. The very early read on the data from those actions is that our elasticities look good so far. And we have more pricing coming.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>简短的回答是肯定的。事实上，我们在本季度开始对一些产品实施与我们经历的最初通货膨胀相关的定价行动。对这些行动数据的早期解读是，到目前为止，我们的弹性看起来不错。我们还将推出更多定价。</i></blockquote></p><p> There will be no shortage of inflation in food in upcoming quarters. Oil price still has a couple of quarters of weak comparables which continue to contribute to higher headline inflation rates.</p><p><blockquote>未来几个季度不会出现食品通胀。油价仍有几个季度的疲软可比数据，这继续导致整体通胀率上升。</blockquote></p><p> Food &amp; transportation, along with housing are the major costs of US households. For1/6thof adults, you can throw in student loans as well. US consumers have been able to absorb the inflation on the back of various stimulus efforts.</p><p><blockquote>食品、交通以及住房是美国家庭的主要开支。对于1/6的成年人，你也可以提供学生贷款。在各种刺激措施的支持下，美国消费者已经能够吸收通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But the stimulus can’t last forever. Part of it is being extended as Delta is slowing (not killing) the recovery. What happens when the different forms of stimulus fade? That’s what we’re going to look at in the rest of the article.</p><p><blockquote>但刺激不可能永远持续下去。由于达美航空正在减缓（而不是扼杀）复苏，其中一部分正在延长。当不同形式的刺激消退时会发生什么？这就是我们将在本文的其余部分中讨论的内容。</blockquote></p><p> The Eviction/Foreclosure Moratorium</p><p><blockquote>暂停驱逐/取消抵押品赎回权</blockquote></p><p> <i>Logan–</i>Foreclosures have started again, and the Supreme Court recentlystruck downthe eviction moratorium imposed by the CDC. By my last count, there are about1.5 million householdswho are in forbearance programs at the moment (i.e. not paying their mortgages), against somewhere in the ballpark of 50 million mortgages in the US. Foreclosure is a process, not an event, and the most common outcome is that people get behind on their payments, try to work with the bank for 6-12 months, and then eventually sell, collect their equity, and move somewhere cheaper. The problem in 2008 was that borrowers had negative equity on their mortgages, so it short-circuited this process. This isn't the case now–I don't see a systematic risk to the economy from foreclosures. Around 6-7 million houses in the US are bought and sold in a typical year, meaning in a vacuum, most people who are behind could sell over a 6-12 month period, and it would be a win-win for those struggling with the shortage of houses to buy and those who can't make payments on the ones they own. The Fed taper might complicate this. If mortgage rates go back up to the ~4 percent they've averaged over the last 10 years at the same time people are unloading houses they've been in forbearance on, prices are going to come down more.</p><p><blockquote><i>洛根-</i>止赎又开始了，最高法院最近推翻了疾病预防控制中心实施的驱逐禁令。根据我的最新统计，目前约有150万家庭处于延期计划中（即不支付抵押贷款），而美国的抵押贷款数量约为5000万。止赎是一个过程，而不是一个事件，最常见的结果是人们拖欠付款，试图与银行合作6-12个月，然后最终出售，收集他们的股权，并搬到更便宜的地方。2008年的问题是借款人的抵押贷款为负资产，因此它缩短了这一过程。现在的情况并非如此——我不认为取消抵押品赎回权会给经济带来系统性风险。在美国，一年大约有600-700万套房屋被买卖，这意味着在真空中，大多数落后的人可以在6-12个月的时间内出售，这对于那些为购买房屋短缺而苦苦挣扎的人和那些无法支付所拥有房屋的人来说是双赢的。美联储缩减规模可能会使情况变得复杂。如果抵押贷款利率回到过去10年的平均4%左右，同时人们正在抛售他们一直忍住的房子，价格将会进一步下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Evictions are messier–there are millions of people not paying rent and living off the extra money. When they have to start paying rent again somewhere else, their household budgets are going to dramatically shrink. Roughly 2-3 percent of American households are significantly behind on rent, so I would expect a lot of both formal and informal (cash for keys) evictions. This has to negatively affect consumer spending, and earnings estimates that ignore the unwind of stimulus are not properly accounting for it.</p><p><blockquote>驱逐更加混乱——有数百万人不付房租，靠额外的钱生活。当他们不得不在其他地方重新开始支付房租时，他们的家庭预算将会大幅缩水。大约2-3%的美国家庭严重拖欠租金，所以我预计会有很多正式和非正式的（现金换钥匙）驱逐。这必然会对消费者支出产生负面影响，而忽视刺激措施放松的盈利预测也没有正确考虑到这一点。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Sam–</i>The risk here is not so much on the real estate market, as Logan correctly summarized, but rather the knock-on effects on consumption.</p><p><blockquote><i>山姆-</i>正如洛根正确总结的那样，这里的风险与其说是房地产市场，不如说是对消费的连锁反应。</blockquote></p><p> The end of the federal eviction moratorium is a boon for apartment REITs which can resume collecting rent. However, that doesn’t mean investors should pile into residential REITs. have gone from deeply undervalued back to historically overvalued, as the below MAD Chart for Essex Property (ESS) shows. We previously suggested investors sell ESS.</p><p><blockquote>联邦驱逐禁令的结束对可以恢复收取租金的公寓房地产投资信托基金来说是一个福音。然而，这并不意味着投资者应该涌入住宅房地产投资信托基金。正如下面埃塞克斯地产(ESS)的MAD图表所示，已经从严重低估回到历史高估。我们之前建议投资者出售ESS。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc5c631a8b25f6a52735e699fbc69b29\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"293\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source:Dividend Freedom Tribe</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：股息自由部落</i></blockquote></p><p> Looking at the other residential REITs on the block, the same picture emerges. AvalonBay Communities (AVB) also is historically overvalued.</p><p><blockquote>看看该街区的其他住宅房地产投资信托基金，也会出现同样的情况。AvalonBay Communities(AVB)历来也被高估。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e17980a72bfba653b02553382a920419\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"315\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Dividend Freedom Tribe</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：股息自由部落</i></blockquote></p><p> None seem more overvalued relative to their historical normal range of prices than Camden Property Trust (CPT) which could easily come down by 1/3rdon a change in sentiment.</p><p><blockquote>相对于其历史正常价格范围，似乎没有比卡姆登房地产信托(CPT)更高估的了，如果情绪发生变化，卡姆登房地产信托(CPT)很容易下跌1/3。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/136a7707c3add17401e4dd4047278e14\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"303\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Dividend Freedom Tribe</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：股息自由部落</i></blockquote></p><p> I believe that this trade has passed. We bought ESS about a year ago, and have been selling it throughout the past few months.</p><p><blockquote>我相信这笔交易已经过去了。我们大约一年前购买了ESS，并在过去几个月里一直在出售它。</blockquote></p><p> Taking profits now in these industries makes sense: “buy the rumor/sell the news”.</p><p><blockquote>现在在这些行业获利了结是有道理的：“买入谣言/卖出消息”。</blockquote></p><p> If we’re looking ahead, we’re seeing one lever which will pressure consumption for a certain part of the population.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们展望未来，我们会看到一个杠杆将给某一部分人口的消费带来压力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Student Loan Forbearance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>学生贷款延期</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <i>Logan–</i>The Biden Administration extended the student loan pause until January 31, 2022. 1 in 6 adults in the US has student loans, with an average balance of ~$40,000. Most borrowers are under 30, a group that spends a higher percentage of their income than, say a 50-year old saving for retirement. Hit 1 in 6 American adults with an average$400 per month payment, paid with mostly post-tax dollars, and that's like stimulus in reverse. Anecdotally, almost no one I know who has student loans is currently paying them. The extra money they're getting from not paying loans is generally either being spent on consumption, invested in cryptocurrency, or in meme stocks like GameStop (GME). This is a decent threat to consumer spending, and there isn't an easy way out. The left wing of the Democratic Party in the US wants to cancel most or all student loans, but the main problem with this is that much of the debt is held by middle and upper-middle-class professionals, which would create a moral hazard as well as redistribute wealth from people lower on the socioeconomic ladder (for example, people who work in trades and pay their income taxes) to those of higher social class (for example, indebted white-collar college graduates). We're talking$1.7+ trillion in US student loansthat are generally not being serviced by those who owe it for this 21 month period. When those kick in again, consumer spending is not going to be higher than it is now. 2022 earnings estimates are mostly blind to this fact.</p><p><blockquote><i>洛根-</i>拜登政府将学生贷款暂停期限延长至2022年1月31日。美国六分之一的成年人拥有学生贷款，平均余额约为4万美元。大多数借款人年龄在30岁以下，这个群体的支出占其收入的比例高于50岁的退休储蓄。六分之一的美国成年人平均每月支付400美元，大部分是税后美元，这就像是反向刺激。有趣的是，我认识的有学生贷款的人目前几乎没有人在偿还贷款。他们因不偿还贷款而获得的额外资金通常要么用于消费、投资加密货币，要么投资于游戏驿站(GME)等模因股票。这对消费者支出构成了相当大的威胁，而且没有简单的解决办法。美国民主党左翼希望取消大部分或全部学生贷款，但这样做的主要问题是，大部分债务由中产阶级和中上阶层的专业人士持有，这将造成道德风险，并将财富从社会经济阶梯较低的人（例如，从事贸易并缴纳所得税的人）重新分配到较高的社会阶层（例如，负债累累的白领大学毕业生）。我们谈论的是1.7多万亿美元的美国学生贷款，这些贷款在这21个月内通常没有被那些欠债的人偿还。当这些因素再次发挥作用时，消费者支出不会比现在高。2022年的盈利预测大多对这一事实视而不见。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Sam–</i>When Logan and I initially discussed this article, this seemed to be the easiest form of stimulus for the government to keep giving. Since most of the loans are federal, a pause on the payments doesn’t explicitly hurt anyone enough to complain. And since the handouts are not direct, critics aren’t as vocal as they are with stimulus checks. The money which has been put into various investments, be it stock or crypto, will come out when they have to start servicing debt again. Whether this has enough of an impact to move markets is questionable, but the retail meme stocks could finally have their day of reckoning as a large portion of the population has to resume payments. The aftermath of removing the pause on debt servicing will be harsh for an important part of the population. At least you’ll still be able to watch a movie at AMC Theater (AMC).</p><p><blockquote><i>山姆-</i>当洛根和我最初讨论这篇文章时，这似乎是政府继续给予的最容易的刺激形式。由于大多数贷款都是联邦贷款，暂停付款不会对任何人造成足够的伤害来抱怨。由于施舍不是直接的，批评者不像对刺激支票那样直言不讳。投入各种投资的资金，无论是股票还是加密货币，将在他们不得不再次开始偿还债务时流出。这是否会产生足够的影响来推动市场值得怀疑，但随着很大一部分人必须恢复支付，零售模因股票最终可能会迎来清算日。取消暂停偿债的后果对很大一部分人口来说将是严酷的。至少您仍然可以在AMC剧院(AMC)观看电影。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Enhanced Unemployment &amp; Stimulus Checks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>加强失业和刺激检查</b></blockquote></p><p> Logan- Enhanced unemployment runs out on September 6, and there are 11 million people who won't be getting it after that week. This is $3.3 billion per week that the Federal government is dripping out to unemployed persons, which in turn is a lot less than it was 12 months ago. When it's gone, it's yet another piece of the puzzle that will rein in consumer spending. Stimulus checks were another source of income for many Americans over the last 18 months. A family of 4 making the median income would have seen a stimulus check in March of $5,600, in addition to the prior payments under the Trump Administration. These aren't going to be going out anymore, and for middle-income Americans, this means that they won't be able to spend as much money as they have before. The expanded child tax credit may make up for this and is probably a more efficient means of getting money out, but it expires also in its current form in December.</p><p><blockquote>洛根——增强失业将于9月6日到期，在那一周之后，有1100万人将无法领取失业救济金。联邦政府每周向失业者发放33亿美元，这比12个月前要少得多。当它消失时，它将成为抑制消费者支出的又一块拼图。在过去的18个月里，刺激支票是许多美国人的另一个收入来源。除了特朗普政府之前的付款外，一个收入中位数的4口之家在3月份还会看到5600美元的刺激支票。这些不会再出去了，对于中等收入的美国人来说，这意味着他们将无法像以前那样花那么多钱。扩大的儿童税收抵免可能会弥补这一点，并且可能是一种更有效的提款方式，但目前的形式也将于12月到期。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Sam–</i>Enhanced Unemployment is running out in a few days, we’re likely to see many of the 8 million Americans who are looking for a job finally find one amongthe 10 million job openings. As of the time of writing, job data is to be posted in the next few hours. Strong job numbers could kick off a Fed taper sooner than expected.</p><p><blockquote><i>山姆-</i>失业率的上升将在几天内消失，我们可能会看到800万正在找工作的美国人中的许多人最终在1000万个职位空缺中找到一个。截至撰写本文时，工作数据将在未来几个小时内发布。强劲的就业数据可能会比预期更早启动美联储缩减规模。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion: What Is Yet to Come?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论：接下来会发生什么？</b></blockquote></p><p> <i>Logan–</i>High profile earnings misses from the likes of Amazon (AMZN), Zoom Video (ZM), and Peloton (PTON) suggest that at least on a micro level, analysts assumed that good times would last forever for companies that benefitted from temporary changes resulting from the pandemic. Whether this is true on a macro level is a strong possibility, and depending on how the rest of earnings results come in for the rest of the year, it may end up becoming a reality. While it isn't set in stone that the market should necessarily go down significantly in price because of this, it's hard to deny that the risk-reward tradeoff for the market has deteriorated over the past 6-12 months. Now is a good time to dial back risk, if at all possible. A good defense, in both of our views, is to invest in high-quality companies rather than popular high-momentum stocks with middling fundamentals, and to take a long-term perspective.</p><p><blockquote><i>洛根-</i>亚马逊(AMZN)、Zoom Video(ZM)和Peloton(PTON)等公司的盈利大幅下滑表明，至少在微观层面上，分析师认为，对于那些受益于暂时变化的公司来说，美好时光将永远持续下去。大流行。从宏观层面来看，这是否属实的可能性很大，而且取决于今年剩余时间的盈利结果，它最终可能会成为现实。虽然市场价格并不一定会因此大幅下跌，但很难否认市场的风险回报权衡在过去6-12个月中已经恶化。如果可能的话，现在是降低风险的好时机。在我们看来，一个好的防御是投资于优质公司，而不是基本面中等的热门高动能股票，并从长远角度来看。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <i>Sam–</i>The inflation train has left the station. Powell believes it is transitory, I believe that it might be partially transitory, but the abundance of fiscal stimulus has kicked up a cycle of inflation which will be above 2% for quite some time. The Covid delta variant has softened some economic indicators like eating out in restaurants or travel, but as the country’s case count is already peaking, the economy is set to continue heating up.</p><p><blockquote><i>山姆-</i>充气列车已经离开车站了。鲍威尔认为这是暂时的，我认为这可能是部分暂时的，但大量的财政刺激已经启动了通胀周期，通胀将在相当长的一段时间内保持在2%以上。新冠疫情德尔塔变异毒株削弱了外出就餐或旅行等一些经济指标，但随着该国病例数已经达到峰值，经济将继续升温。</blockquote></p><p> This will lead to a taper. Higher rates, or even the expectation of higher rates, will lead to a change in discount rates, which is a fancy way to say future profits are worthless.</p><p><blockquote>这将导致锥度。更高的利率，甚至更高利率的预期，都会导致贴现率的变化，这是一种说未来利润一文不值的奇特方式。</blockquote></p><p> Investors want to take a hard look at their portfolios and ask whether they have positions which are overvalued beyond reason?</p><p><blockquote>投资者希望仔细审视他们的投资组合，并询问他们是否拥有被过度高估的头寸？</blockquote></p><p> No need to look at obscure parts of the market, this is playing out in the S&amp;P 500 (SPY).</p><p><blockquote>无需关注市场中不起眼的部分，这正在标普500（SPDR标普500指数ETF）上演。</blockquote></p><p> For instance, I cannot fathom how a stock like Intuit (INTU) currently trades at 16x sales? Even on its lofty usual measure of 8-9x sales, this is unusually high. Compare it to the stock's historical dividend, and the reading is off the wall.</p><p><blockquote>例如，我无法理解像Intuit(INTU)这样的股票目前的交易价格是销售额的16倍？即使按照通常8-9倍的销售额来衡量，这也是异常高的。将其与该股票的历史股息进行比较，读数是惊人的。</blockquote></p><p> Investors want to focus on companies with strong earnings power, large-scale operations, which are trading at relatively cheap valuations.</p><p><blockquote>投资者希望关注盈利能力强、经营规模大、估值相对便宜的公司。</blockquote></p><p> Among those that come to mind in the top 100 stocks are Amgen (AMGN) which currently yields over 3%.</p><p><blockquote>前100名股票中我想到的是安进(AMGN)，该公司目前的收益率超过3%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd53f68bc9f02f82e05458098625b0a7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"297\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Dividend Freedom Tribe</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：股息自由部落</i></blockquote></p><p> Philip Morris International (PM), Broadcom (AVGO), and Morgan Stanley (MS.PK) are also undervalued relative to their historical valuations.</p><p><blockquote>菲利普莫里斯国际（PM）、博通（AVGO）和摩根士丹利（MS.PK）相对于其历史估值也被低估。</blockquote></p><p> In such an environment, focus on quality is a must. Focus on value is a close second. We’re looking to buy the highest quality assets with growth prospects at a decent price. We’re very cautious that stimulus unwinding will hit consumption which will hit earning results. Big misses from overvalued names spells trouble. The responsible thing to do is to scale out of stocks when they become overvalued.</p><p><blockquote>在这样的环境下，注重质量是必须的。关注价值紧随其后。我们希望以合理的价格购买具有增长前景的最优质资产。我们非常谨慎地认为，刺激措施的取消将打击消费，从而影响盈利结果。估值过高的名字的重大失误会带来麻烦。负责任的做法是在股票估值过高时退出。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453272-what-will-happen-when-trillions-in-stimulus-runs-out-in-2022\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453272-what-will-happen-when-trillions-in-stimulus-runs-out-in-2022","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115112299","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe US economy and stock market have benefitted from an unprecedented amount of stimulus in 2021.\nWith expanded unemployment set to end, student loan & mortgage forbearance to end, and a possible corporate tax rate hike on the horizon, it's possible 2022 earnings estimates for stocks are simply too high.\nIn light of this, the broad stock market faces an unattractive risk-reward proposition.\nI break down the possibilities and game plan with expert value/dividend investor Sam Kovacs.\n\nIntroduction\nLogan–The United States government has turned to an unprecedented amount of fiscal and monetary stimulus to help the economy through the COVID-19 pandemic. Notable examples include multiple rounds of stimulus checks, the student loan pause, mortgage forbearance/eviction moratorium, PPP, and enhanced unemployment benefits. So far, this effort seems to have been successful, although critics point out that it has resulted in significant increases in inflation. However, the political and economic reality is that the US can't run $3 trillion deficits forever, at least without everyone implicitly paying for it via higher consumer prices compared to their earnings.\nThe weight of theevidence suggeststhat prices are rising faster than wages. In turn, the government has stepped in to fill this gap with stimulus payments, but the trillion-dollar question is what happens when the economy has to run on its own productivity–rather than on temporary transfer payments. For 2021, thanks to pent-up demand and stimulus, S&P 500 components are expected to smash the record for the highest amount ever earned in a year (somewhere between $200 and $205 per share for 2021, vs. the previous record of $163 in 2019). Wall Street analysts additionally expect the S&P 500 to earn~$215 per share in 2022, which would be yet another record. When you pull numbers forproductivity and economic output, the picture isn't as great, which helps explain why there are so many shortages of goods and services right now. If you feel that the change in nominal economic output is more indicative of what corporations can earn over the medium term (taking away the impact of consumers spending temporary transfer payments), you get an earnings number for the S&P 500 closer to $180, which is about 15 percent lower than Wall Street is currently expecting.\nPutting further pressure on earnings is the potential corporate tax hike from 21 percent to 25 percent, which will decrease S&P 500 earnings by 5 percent, all else being equal. Political betting markets show that this has a roughly50/50 chance of becoming lawat the moment. With many investors making easy money piling into low-conviction, high momentum names, the consequences of unwinding stimulus could be a shock to their portfolio balances. Helping me make sense of the stimulus unwind is fellowSeeking AlphaauthorSam Kovacs.Although living halfway across the world from me here in suburban Texas, Sam and I think eerily alike about the markets, gravitating to high-quality stocks with solid earnings and dividends.\nSam–Within the first couple of months of the Fed’s reaction to the pandemic, I was concerned that they would be placing themselves between a rock and a hard place. I would not have wanted to be in Powell’s shoes, but then again there aren’t many government jobs I’d consider taking. Striking a balance between pulling stimulus too early and risking runaway inflation is no easy task. The government has looked to prior crashes and decided that risking inflation was the way to go.\nKeep telling the people that it is “transitory” and surely it will be. But anyone who has taken Econ 101 knows that inflation feeds on itself. At first, companies are reactionary, but then they become proactive in pricing measures. Here are a few snippets.\nFrom Hormel's (HRL) latestcall:\nWe have taken numerous pricing actions across the portfolio to protect profitability. The actions will take place early in the third quarter with additional pricing actions likely.\nFrom Conagra's (CAG) latestcall:\nAnd the short answer is yes. In fact, we began implementing pricing actions on some of our products in the quarter related to the initial inflation we experienced. The very early read on the data from those actions is that our elasticities look good so far. And we have more pricing coming.\nThere will be no shortage of inflation in food in upcoming quarters. Oil price still has a couple of quarters of weak comparables which continue to contribute to higher headline inflation rates.\nFood & transportation, along with housing are the major costs of US households. For1/6thof adults, you can throw in student loans as well. US consumers have been able to absorb the inflation on the back of various stimulus efforts.\nBut the stimulus can’t last forever. Part of it is being extended as Delta is slowing (not killing) the recovery. What happens when the different forms of stimulus fade? That’s what we’re going to look at in the rest of the article.\nThe Eviction/Foreclosure Moratorium\nLogan–Foreclosures have started again, and the Supreme Court recentlystruck downthe eviction moratorium imposed by the CDC. By my last count, there are about1.5 million householdswho are in forbearance programs at the moment (i.e. not paying their mortgages), against somewhere in the ballpark of 50 million mortgages in the US. Foreclosure is a process, not an event, and the most common outcome is that people get behind on their payments, try to work with the bank for 6-12 months, and then eventually sell, collect their equity, and move somewhere cheaper. The problem in 2008 was that borrowers had negative equity on their mortgages, so it short-circuited this process. This isn't the case now–I don't see a systematic risk to the economy from foreclosures. Around 6-7 million houses in the US are bought and sold in a typical year, meaning in a vacuum, most people who are behind could sell over a 6-12 month period, and it would be a win-win for those struggling with the shortage of houses to buy and those who can't make payments on the ones they own. The Fed taper might complicate this. If mortgage rates go back up to the ~4 percent they've averaged over the last 10 years at the same time people are unloading houses they've been in forbearance on, prices are going to come down more.\nEvictions are messier–there are millions of people not paying rent and living off the extra money. When they have to start paying rent again somewhere else, their household budgets are going to dramatically shrink. Roughly 2-3 percent of American households are significantly behind on rent, so I would expect a lot of both formal and informal (cash for keys) evictions. This has to negatively affect consumer spending, and earnings estimates that ignore the unwind of stimulus are not properly accounting for it.\nSam–The risk here is not so much on the real estate market, as Logan correctly summarized, but rather the knock-on effects on consumption.\nThe end of the federal eviction moratorium is a boon for apartment REITs which can resume collecting rent. However, that doesn’t mean investors should pile into residential REITs. have gone from deeply undervalued back to historically overvalued, as the below MAD Chart for Essex Property (ESS) shows. We previously suggested investors sell ESS.\n\nSource:Dividend Freedom Tribe\nLooking at the other residential REITs on the block, the same picture emerges. AvalonBay Communities (AVB) also is historically overvalued.\n\nSource: Dividend Freedom Tribe\nNone seem more overvalued relative to their historical normal range of prices than Camden Property Trust (CPT) which could easily come down by 1/3rdon a change in sentiment.\n\nSource: Dividend Freedom Tribe\nI believe that this trade has passed. We bought ESS about a year ago, and have been selling it throughout the past few months.\nTaking profits now in these industries makes sense: “buy the rumor/sell the news”.\nIf we’re looking ahead, we’re seeing one lever which will pressure consumption for a certain part of the population.\nStudent Loan Forbearance\nLogan–The Biden Administration extended the student loan pause until January 31, 2022. 1 in 6 adults in the US has student loans, with an average balance of ~$40,000. Most borrowers are under 30, a group that spends a higher percentage of their income than, say a 50-year old saving for retirement. Hit 1 in 6 American adults with an average$400 per month payment, paid with mostly post-tax dollars, and that's like stimulus in reverse. Anecdotally, almost no one I know who has student loans is currently paying them. The extra money they're getting from not paying loans is generally either being spent on consumption, invested in cryptocurrency, or in meme stocks like GameStop (GME). This is a decent threat to consumer spending, and there isn't an easy way out. The left wing of the Democratic Party in the US wants to cancel most or all student loans, but the main problem with this is that much of the debt is held by middle and upper-middle-class professionals, which would create a moral hazard as well as redistribute wealth from people lower on the socioeconomic ladder (for example, people who work in trades and pay their income taxes) to those of higher social class (for example, indebted white-collar college graduates). We're talking$1.7+ trillion in US student loansthat are generally not being serviced by those who owe it for this 21 month period. When those kick in again, consumer spending is not going to be higher than it is now. 2022 earnings estimates are mostly blind to this fact.\nSam–When Logan and I initially discussed this article, this seemed to be the easiest form of stimulus for the government to keep giving. Since most of the loans are federal, a pause on the payments doesn’t explicitly hurt anyone enough to complain. And since the handouts are not direct, critics aren’t as vocal as they are with stimulus checks. The money which has been put into various investments, be it stock or crypto, will come out when they have to start servicing debt again. Whether this has enough of an impact to move markets is questionable, but the retail meme stocks could finally have their day of reckoning as a large portion of the population has to resume payments. The aftermath of removing the pause on debt servicing will be harsh for an important part of the population. At least you’ll still be able to watch a movie at AMC Theater (AMC).\nEnhanced Unemployment & Stimulus Checks\nLogan- Enhanced unemployment runs out on September 6, and there are 11 million people who won't be getting it after that week. This is $3.3 billion per week that the Federal government is dripping out to unemployed persons, which in turn is a lot less than it was 12 months ago. When it's gone, it's yet another piece of the puzzle that will rein in consumer spending. Stimulus checks were another source of income for many Americans over the last 18 months. A family of 4 making the median income would have seen a stimulus check in March of $5,600, in addition to the prior payments under the Trump Administration. These aren't going to be going out anymore, and for middle-income Americans, this means that they won't be able to spend as much money as they have before. The expanded child tax credit may make up for this and is probably a more efficient means of getting money out, but it expires also in its current form in December.\nSam–Enhanced Unemployment is running out in a few days, we’re likely to see many of the 8 million Americans who are looking for a job finally find one amongthe 10 million job openings. As of the time of writing, job data is to be posted in the next few hours. Strong job numbers could kick off a Fed taper sooner than expected.\nConclusion: What Is Yet to Come?\nLogan–High profile earnings misses from the likes of Amazon (AMZN), Zoom Video (ZM), and Peloton (PTON) suggest that at least on a micro level, analysts assumed that good times would last forever for companies that benefitted from temporary changes resulting from the pandemic. Whether this is true on a macro level is a strong possibility, and depending on how the rest of earnings results come in for the rest of the year, it may end up becoming a reality. While it isn't set in stone that the market should necessarily go down significantly in price because of this, it's hard to deny that the risk-reward tradeoff for the market has deteriorated over the past 6-12 months. Now is a good time to dial back risk, if at all possible. A good defense, in both of our views, is to invest in high-quality companies rather than popular high-momentum stocks with middling fundamentals, and to take a long-term perspective.\nSam–The inflation train has left the station. Powell believes it is transitory, I believe that it might be partially transitory, but the abundance of fiscal stimulus has kicked up a cycle of inflation which will be above 2% for quite some time. The Covid delta variant has softened some economic indicators like eating out in restaurants or travel, but as the country’s case count is already peaking, the economy is set to continue heating up.\nThis will lead to a taper. Higher rates, or even the expectation of higher rates, will lead to a change in discount rates, which is a fancy way to say future profits are worthless.\nInvestors want to take a hard look at their portfolios and ask whether they have positions which are overvalued beyond reason?\nNo need to look at obscure parts of the market, this is playing out in the S&P 500 (SPY).\nFor instance, I cannot fathom how a stock like Intuit (INTU) currently trades at 16x sales? Even on its lofty usual measure of 8-9x sales, this is unusually high. Compare it to the stock's historical dividend, and the reading is off the wall.\nInvestors want to focus on companies with strong earnings power, large-scale operations, which are trading at relatively cheap valuations.\nAmong those that come to mind in the top 100 stocks are Amgen (AMGN) which currently yields over 3%.\n\nSource: Dividend Freedom Tribe\nPhilip Morris International (PM), Broadcom (AVGO), and Morgan Stanley (MS.PK) are also undervalued relative to their historical valuations.\nIn such an environment, focus on quality is a must. Focus on value is a close second. We’re looking to buy the highest quality assets with growth prospects at a decent price. We’re very cautious that stimulus unwinding will hit consumption which will hit earning results. Big misses from overvalued names spells trouble. The responsible thing to do is to scale out of stocks when they become overvalued.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1292,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":812504578,"gmtCreate":1630593141994,"gmtModify":1632471149019,"author":{"id":"4090570965971460","authorId":"4090570965971460","name":"KeN3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffc770a2d3626a3e029ba2c461aac13d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090570965971460","idStr":"4090570965971460"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow... will that really happen?","listText":"Wow... will that really happen?","text":"Wow... will that really happen?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/812504578","repostId":"1131318558","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1131318558","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630591645,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1131318558?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-02 22:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Bear Attack: Could Apple Stock Really Drop 40%?<blockquote>空头攻击：苹果股价真的会下跌40%吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131318558","media":"Thestreet","summary":"One of two Wall Street analysts that had a sell rating on Apple stock threw in the towel. The other still thinks that AAPL shares could drop 40%. Is the sizable downside risk realistic?On the first day of September, one of the rare Wall Street bears on Apple stock  finally gave in and dropped his sell rating. The last remaining one still sees shares dropping to a price target of $90, representing risk of loss of around 40%.Could New Street’s Pierre Ferragu, the last remaining Apple bear on Wall ","content":"<p>One of two Wall Street analysts that had a sell rating on Apple stock threw in the towel. The other still thinks that AAPL shares could drop 40%. Is the sizable downside risk realistic?</p><p><blockquote>对苹果股票给予卖出评级的两位华尔街分析师之一认输了。另一位仍然认为AAPL股价可能会下跌40%。巨大的下行风险现实吗？</blockquote></p><p> On the first day of September, one of the rare Wall Street bears on Apple stock&nbsp;(<b>AAPL</b>)&nbsp;finally gave in and dropped his sell rating. The last remaining one still&nbsp;sees&nbsp;shares dropping to a price target of $90, representing risk of loss of around 40%.</p><p><blockquote>九月的第一天，华尔街罕见的看空苹果股票之一（<b>AAPL</b>）最终让步，下调了卖出评级。剩下的最后一位仍将股价跌至90美元的目标价，损失风险约为40%。</blockquote></p><p> Could New Street’s Pierre Ferragu, the last remaining Apple bear on Wall Street, be right about his downside call? The Apple Maven looks a bit closer at the argument.</p><p><blockquote>New Street的Pierre Ferragu是华尔街最后一位看空苹果的人，他对看涨期权下行的看法可能是正确的吗？这位苹果专家更仔细地观察了这场争论。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why bearish on Apple?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>为什么看空苹果？</b></blockquote></p><p> The core of Pierre’s bearish argument&nbsp;seems to be the iPhone. The analyst has called the upcoming device launch a “12S cycle”, arguing that the best of Apple’s iPhone upgrade wave,the so-called 5G super cycle, has been left in the rearview mirror.</p><p><blockquote>皮埃尔看空论点的核心似乎是iPhone。这位分析师将即将推出的设备称为“12S周期”，认为苹果iPhone升级浪潮中最好的部分，即所谓的5G超级周期，已经成为过去。</blockquote></p><p> New Street subscribes to the view that the strong iPhone 12 cycle has pulled forward smartphone sales, leaving a gap in demand going forward. Interestingly, this is exactly the&nbsp;opposite opinion of bullish Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, who said the following during an interview with the Apple Maven:</p><p><blockquote>New Street赞同这样的观点，即强劲的iPhone 12周期拉动了智能手机销量，导致未来需求出现缺口。有趣的是，这与看涨的Wedbush分析师Dan Ives的观点完全相反，Dan Ives在接受《苹果专家》采访时表示：</blockquote></p><p>   “What the Street underestimates is how massive and elongated this super cycle is. […] 5G does not get fully embraced for the next two or three years, until the networks are built out. In China [where the 5G infrastructure is further ahead], the iPhone 12, especially the larger Pro versions, really sold extremely well.”  Still on the iPhone, Mr. Ferragu laid out his expectations for 2022 back in April (I am unaware of revisions since then). He believes that iPhone shipments will reach 190 million units, suggesting segment revenues of around $150 billion – a modest annual increase of 5% from COVID-19 levels.</p><p><blockquote>“华尔街低估了这个超级周期的规模和长度。[……]在网络建成之前，5G在未来两三年内不会被完全接受。在中国（5G基础设施更加领先），iPhone 12，尤其是较大的Pro版本，确实卖得非常好。”Ferragu先生仍然在iPhone上，早在4月份就提出了他对2022年的预期（我不知道此后有任何修改）。他认为iPhone出货量将达到1.9亿部，这意味着该部门的收入约为1500亿美元——比COVID-19水平每年小幅增长5%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Could AAPL sink 40%?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AAPL会下跌40%吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, let’s put pen to paper. For Apple stock to be valued at $90 apiece, one of two things would need to happen: either financial performance would need to lag consensus expectations, or valuations would need to contract (or a combination of both).</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们动笔。苹果股票的估值要达到每股90美元，需要发生两件事之一：要么财务业绩需要落后于普遍预期，要么估值需要收缩（或两者兼而有之）。</blockquote></p><p> On results,Wall Street currently sees&nbsp;fiscal 2022 EPS landing at $5.63, roughly flat against a 2021 that has been impressive so far. For AAPL to drop 40% in price, therefore, next-year earnings would need to miss consensus substantially, by at least a couple of dollars. I find this highly unlikely.</p><p><blockquote>从业绩来看，华尔街目前预计2022财年每股收益将达到5.63美元，与迄今为止令人印象深刻的2021财年基本持平。因此，苹果公司要想股价下跌40%，明年的盈利就需要大幅低于市场预期，至少下降几美元。我觉得这不太可能。</blockquote></p><p> On valuations, AAPL currently trades at a fiscal 2021 earnings multiple of 27 times. Assuming consensus-matching results in the future, this multiple would need to drop to about 16 times for AAPL shares to sink to $90. The stock’s forward P/E has not been this low in years.</p><p><blockquote>从估值来看，AAPL目前的2021财年市盈率为27倍。假设未来的结果与共识匹配，这一市盈率需要降至16倍左右，AAPL股价才能跌至90美元。该股的预期市盈率多年来从未如此低。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Apple Maven’s take</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果专家的看法</b></blockquote></p><p> I find it very improbable, if not virtually impossible, for Apple to ever be valued at $90 per share again. It is much more reasonable, in my opinion, that New Street’s current price target on the stock is simply stale, following AAPL’s 25% rally in the past six months.</p><p><blockquote>我发现苹果的估值即使不是几乎不可能，也不太可能再次达到每股90美元。在我看来，更合理的是，在AAPL在过去六个月内上涨了25%之后，New Street目前的股价目标已经过时了。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, I would not be surprised to see Wall Street’s last AAPL bear eventually (soon?) give in on his downside convictions, at least in what pertains to his current price target.</p><p><blockquote>因此，看到华尔街最后一次看空苹果公司最终（很快？）屈服于他的下行信念，至少在与他当前的价格目标相关的方面，我不会感到惊讶。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bear Attack: Could Apple Stock Really Drop 40%?<blockquote>空头攻击：苹果股价真的会下跌40%吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBear Attack: Could Apple Stock Really Drop 40%?<blockquote>空头攻击：苹果股价真的会下跌40%吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Thestreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-02 22:07</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>One of two Wall Street analysts that had a sell rating on Apple stock threw in the towel. The other still thinks that AAPL shares could drop 40%. Is the sizable downside risk realistic?</p><p><blockquote>对苹果股票给予卖出评级的两位华尔街分析师之一认输了。另一位仍然认为AAPL股价可能会下跌40%。巨大的下行风险现实吗？</blockquote></p><p> On the first day of September, one of the rare Wall Street bears on Apple stock&nbsp;(<b>AAPL</b>)&nbsp;finally gave in and dropped his sell rating. The last remaining one still&nbsp;sees&nbsp;shares dropping to a price target of $90, representing risk of loss of around 40%.</p><p><blockquote>九月的第一天，华尔街罕见的看空苹果股票之一（<b>AAPL</b>）最终让步，下调了卖出评级。剩下的最后一位仍将股价跌至90美元的目标价，损失风险约为40%。</blockquote></p><p> Could New Street’s Pierre Ferragu, the last remaining Apple bear on Wall Street, be right about his downside call? The Apple Maven looks a bit closer at the argument.</p><p><blockquote>New Street的Pierre Ferragu是华尔街最后一位看空苹果的人，他对看涨期权下行的看法可能是正确的吗？这位苹果专家更仔细地观察了这场争论。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why bearish on Apple?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>为什么看空苹果？</b></blockquote></p><p> The core of Pierre’s bearish argument&nbsp;seems to be the iPhone. The analyst has called the upcoming device launch a “12S cycle”, arguing that the best of Apple’s iPhone upgrade wave,the so-called 5G super cycle, has been left in the rearview mirror.</p><p><blockquote>皮埃尔看空论点的核心似乎是iPhone。这位分析师将即将推出的设备称为“12S周期”，认为苹果iPhone升级浪潮中最好的部分，即所谓的5G超级周期，已经成为过去。</blockquote></p><p> New Street subscribes to the view that the strong iPhone 12 cycle has pulled forward smartphone sales, leaving a gap in demand going forward. Interestingly, this is exactly the&nbsp;opposite opinion of bullish Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, who said the following during an interview with the Apple Maven:</p><p><blockquote>New Street赞同这样的观点，即强劲的iPhone 12周期拉动了智能手机销量，导致未来需求出现缺口。有趣的是，这与看涨的Wedbush分析师Dan Ives的观点完全相反，Dan Ives在接受《苹果专家》采访时表示：</blockquote></p><p>   “What the Street underestimates is how massive and elongated this super cycle is. […] 5G does not get fully embraced for the next two or three years, until the networks are built out. In China [where the 5G infrastructure is further ahead], the iPhone 12, especially the larger Pro versions, really sold extremely well.”  Still on the iPhone, Mr. Ferragu laid out his expectations for 2022 back in April (I am unaware of revisions since then). He believes that iPhone shipments will reach 190 million units, suggesting segment revenues of around $150 billion – a modest annual increase of 5% from COVID-19 levels.</p><p><blockquote>“华尔街低估了这个超级周期的规模和长度。[……]在网络建成之前，5G在未来两三年内不会被完全接受。在中国（5G基础设施更加领先），iPhone 12，尤其是较大的Pro版本，确实卖得非常好。”Ferragu先生仍然在iPhone上，早在4月份就提出了他对2022年的预期（我不知道此后有任何修改）。他认为iPhone出货量将达到1.9亿部，这意味着该部门的收入约为1500亿美元——比COVID-19水平每年小幅增长5%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Could AAPL sink 40%?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AAPL会下跌40%吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, let’s put pen to paper. For Apple stock to be valued at $90 apiece, one of two things would need to happen: either financial performance would need to lag consensus expectations, or valuations would need to contract (or a combination of both).</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们动笔。苹果股票的估值要达到每股90美元，需要发生两件事之一：要么财务业绩需要落后于普遍预期，要么估值需要收缩（或两者兼而有之）。</blockquote></p><p> On results,Wall Street currently sees&nbsp;fiscal 2022 EPS landing at $5.63, roughly flat against a 2021 that has been impressive so far. For AAPL to drop 40% in price, therefore, next-year earnings would need to miss consensus substantially, by at least a couple of dollars. I find this highly unlikely.</p><p><blockquote>从业绩来看，华尔街目前预计2022财年每股收益将达到5.63美元，与迄今为止令人印象深刻的2021财年基本持平。因此，苹果公司要想股价下跌40%，明年的盈利就需要大幅低于市场预期，至少下降几美元。我觉得这不太可能。</blockquote></p><p> On valuations, AAPL currently trades at a fiscal 2021 earnings multiple of 27 times. Assuming consensus-matching results in the future, this multiple would need to drop to about 16 times for AAPL shares to sink to $90. The stock’s forward P/E has not been this low in years.</p><p><blockquote>从估值来看，AAPL目前的2021财年市盈率为27倍。假设未来的结果与共识匹配，这一市盈率需要降至16倍左右，AAPL股价才能跌至90美元。该股的预期市盈率多年来从未如此低。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Apple Maven’s take</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果专家的看法</b></blockquote></p><p> I find it very improbable, if not virtually impossible, for Apple to ever be valued at $90 per share again. It is much more reasonable, in my opinion, that New Street’s current price target on the stock is simply stale, following AAPL’s 25% rally in the past six months.</p><p><blockquote>我发现苹果的估值即使不是几乎不可能，也不太可能再次达到每股90美元。在我看来，更合理的是，在AAPL在过去六个月内上涨了25%之后，New Street目前的股价目标已经过时了。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, I would not be surprised to see Wall Street’s last AAPL bear eventually (soon?) give in on his downside convictions, at least in what pertains to his current price target.</p><p><blockquote>因此，看到华尔街最后一次看空苹果公司最终（很快？）屈服于他的下行信念，至少在与他当前的价格目标相关的方面，我不会感到惊讶。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/bear-attack-could-apple-stock-really-drop-40\">Thestreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/bear-attack-could-apple-stock-really-drop-40","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131318558","content_text":"One of two Wall Street analysts that had a sell rating on Apple stock threw in the towel. The other still thinks that AAPL shares could drop 40%. Is the sizable downside risk realistic?\nOn the first day of September, one of the rare Wall Street bears on Apple stock (AAPL) finally gave in and dropped his sell rating. The last remaining one still sees shares dropping to a price target of $90, representing risk of loss of around 40%.\nCould New Street’s Pierre Ferragu, the last remaining Apple bear on Wall Street, be right about his downside call? The Apple Maven looks a bit closer at the argument.\nWhy bearish on Apple?\nThe core of Pierre’s bearish argument seems to be the iPhone. The analyst has called the upcoming device launch a “12S cycle”, arguing that the best of Apple’s iPhone upgrade wave,the so-called 5G super cycle, has been left in the rearview mirror.\nNew Street subscribes to the view that the strong iPhone 12 cycle has pulled forward smartphone sales, leaving a gap in demand going forward. Interestingly, this is exactly the opposite opinion of bullish Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, who said the following during an interview with the Apple Maven:\n\n “What the Street underestimates is how massive and elongated this super cycle is. […] 5G does not get fully embraced for the next two or three years, until the networks are built out. In China [where the 5G infrastructure is further ahead], the iPhone 12, especially the larger Pro versions, really sold extremely well.”\n\nStill on the iPhone, Mr. Ferragu laid out his expectations for 2022 back in April (I am unaware of revisions since then). He believes that iPhone shipments will reach 190 million units, suggesting segment revenues of around $150 billion – a modest annual increase of 5% from COVID-19 levels.\nCould AAPL sink 40%?\nNow, let’s put pen to paper. For Apple stock to be valued at $90 apiece, one of two things would need to happen: either financial performance would need to lag consensus expectations, or valuations would need to contract (or a combination of both).\nOn results,Wall Street currently sees fiscal 2022 EPS landing at $5.63, roughly flat against a 2021 that has been impressive so far. For AAPL to drop 40% in price, therefore, next-year earnings would need to miss consensus substantially, by at least a couple of dollars. I find this highly unlikely.\nOn valuations, AAPL currently trades at a fiscal 2021 earnings multiple of 27 times. Assuming consensus-matching results in the future, this multiple would need to drop to about 16 times for AAPL shares to sink to $90. The stock’s forward P/E has not been this low in years.\nThe Apple Maven’s take\nI find it very improbable, if not virtually impossible, for Apple to ever be valued at $90 per share again. It is much more reasonable, in my opinion, that New Street’s current price target on the stock is simply stale, following AAPL’s 25% rally in the past six months.\nTherefore, I would not be surprised to see Wall Street’s last AAPL bear eventually (soon?) give in on his downside convictions, at least in what pertains to his current price target.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1302,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":818670485,"gmtCreate":1630407862347,"gmtModify":1633678297877,"author":{"id":"4090570965971460","authorId":"4090570965971460","name":"KeN3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffc770a2d3626a3e029ba2c461aac13d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090570965971460","idStr":"4090570965971460"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Who are the buyers?","listText":"Who are the buyers?","text":"Who are the buyers?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/818670485","repostId":"1166793997","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1166793997","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630396480,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1166793997?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-31 15:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Could Get Partial Tax Breaks In India After All: Report<blockquote>特斯拉毕竟可以在印度获得部分税收减免：报告</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166793997","media":"Benzinga","summary":"India could offer Tesla Inc partial relief on import duties to get electric vehicles shipped to the ","content":"<p><div> India could offer Tesla Inc partial relief on import duties to get electric vehicles shipped to the country, The Economic Times reported on Monday, citing officials. What Happened:Various stakeholders...</p><p><blockquote><div>据《经济时报》周一援引官员的话报道，印度可能会向特斯拉公司提供部分进口税减免，以将电动汽车运往印度。发生了什么：各种利益相关者...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/08/22731456/tesla-could-get-partial-tax-breaks-in-india-after-all-report\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/08/22731456/tesla-could-get-partial-tax-breaks-in-india-after-all-report\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Could Get Partial Tax Breaks In India After All: Report<blockquote>特斯拉毕竟可以在印度获得部分税收减免：报告</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Could Get Partial Tax Breaks In India After All: Report<blockquote>特斯拉毕竟可以在印度获得部分税收减免：报告</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Benzinga</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-31 15:54</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> India could offer Tesla Inc partial relief on import duties to get electric vehicles shipped to the country, The Economic Times reported on Monday, citing officials. What Happened:Various stakeholders...</p><p><blockquote><div>据《经济时报》周一援引官员的话报道，印度可能会向特斯拉公司提供部分进口税减免，以将电动汽车运往印度。发生了什么：各种利益相关者...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/08/22731456/tesla-could-get-partial-tax-breaks-in-india-after-all-report\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/08/22731456/tesla-could-get-partial-tax-breaks-in-india-after-all-report\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/08/22731456/tesla-could-get-partial-tax-breaks-in-india-after-all-report\">Benzinga</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/08/22731456/tesla-could-get-partial-tax-breaks-in-india-after-all-report","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166793997","content_text":"India could offer Tesla Inc partial relief on import duties to get electric vehicles shipped to the country, The Economic Times reported on Monday, citing officials.\nWhat Happened:Various stakeholders in the government are open to providing tax breaks but the Elon Musk-led company needs to furnish detailed investment plans first before any decision is taken on the government's part.\n“We can offer some relief... but we need to know what their plans are,” an unnamed official told ET.\nTesla claimed it procures components worth $100 million from India and suggested that figure would increase following any tax concessions, according to the report.\nThe EV maker plans to make significant direct investments in sales, service, and charging infrastructure and evaluate broader investments in manufacturing once it gets the rebates.\nWhy It Matters:The back-and-forth comes after Musk criticized India’s restrictive policies and tweeted to say that, while Tesla wants to make cars in the country, the import duties there are the highest in the world.\nThe Palo Alto, California-based company had in a letter to India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi sought a reduction in import duties on electric cars to 40% from the current 60% to 100%.\nTesla had also requested to scrap the 10% social welfare surcharge that is levied on all imported cars.\nPrice Action:Tesla shares closed 2.67% higher at $730.91 on Monday.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3035,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":818670841,"gmtCreate":1630407820583,"gmtModify":1633678298303,"author":{"id":"4090570965971460","authorId":"4090570965971460","name":"KeN3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffc770a2d3626a3e029ba2c461aac13d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090570965971460","idStr":"4090570965971460"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/818670841","repostId":"1117204549","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3018,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":834187159,"gmtCreate":1629780469071,"gmtModify":1633682473306,"author":{"id":"4090570965971460","authorId":"4090570965971460","name":"KeN3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffc770a2d3626a3e029ba2c461aac13d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090570965971460","idStr":"4090570965971460"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"If crosses the $150 mark.. there’ll be a spurt","listText":"If crosses the $150 mark.. there’ll be a spurt","text":"If crosses the $150 mark.. there’ll be a spurt","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/834187159","repostId":"1104413070","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":716,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":835592050,"gmtCreate":1629726074670,"gmtModify":1633682917642,"author":{"id":"4090570965971460","authorId":"4090570965971460","name":"KeN3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffc770a2d3626a3e029ba2c461aac13d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090570965971460","idStr":"4090570965971460"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Unfortunately not invested","listText":"Unfortunately not invested","text":"Unfortunately not invested","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/835592050","repostId":"1105547841","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1105547841","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1629726022,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1105547841?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-23 21:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"NVIDIA shares rose nearly 3% to a new high<blockquote>英伟达股价涨近3%创新高</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105547841","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"NVIDIA shares rose nearly 3% to a new high in Monday morning trading.","content":"<p>NVIDIA shares rose nearly 3% to a new high&nbsp;in Monday morning trading.</p><p><blockquote>英伟达股价周一早盘上涨近3%，再创新高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8075cefb2210baeb244ede722b51d9bc\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NVIDIA shares rose nearly 3% to a new high<blockquote>英伟达股价涨近3%创新高</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNVIDIA shares rose nearly 3% to a new high<blockquote>英伟达股价涨近3%创新高</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-23 21:40</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>NVIDIA shares rose nearly 3% to a new high&nbsp;in Monday morning trading.</p><p><blockquote>英伟达股价周一早盘上涨近3%，再创新高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8075cefb2210baeb244ede722b51d9bc\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105547841","content_text":"NVIDIA shares rose nearly 3% to a new high in Monday morning trading.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":557,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":832184602,"gmtCreate":1629598650206,"gmtModify":1633683864902,"author":{"id":"4090570965971460","authorId":"4090570965971460","name":"KeN3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffc770a2d3626a3e029ba2c461aac13d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090570965971460","idStr":"4090570965971460"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Prices for these companies shares have risen exponentially... but is there still room for growth?","listText":"Prices for these companies shares have risen exponentially... but is there still room for growth?","text":"Prices for these companies shares have risen exponentially... but is there still room for growth?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/832184602","repostId":"2161745179","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":752,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":836479560,"gmtCreate":1629518584950,"gmtModify":1633684279147,"author":{"id":"4090570965971460","authorId":"4090570965971460","name":"KeN3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffc770a2d3626a3e029ba2c461aac13d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090570965971460","idStr":"4090570965971460"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Doesn’t sound too good","listText":"Doesn’t sound too good","text":"Doesn’t sound too good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/836479560","repostId":"1107075259","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1107075259","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629509852,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1107075259?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-21 09:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Ignore Elon Musk’s dancing distraction and face the dangers ahead for Tesla<blockquote>忽略Elon Musk跳舞的干扰，面对特斯拉未来的危险</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107075259","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Investigations into automated-driving systems and the statements made about it by the electric-car company and its chief executive deserve more attention than their latest fanciful technology aspirations and timelines.$Investors$ should ignore Elon Musk’s latest dance and focus instead on the growing issues Tesla is facing because of its chief executive’s exaggerated claims about his company’s technological capabilities.At $Tesla Motors$’s AI Day late Thursday, self-named Technoking Musk said th","content":"<p>  <b>Investigations into automated-driving systems and the statements made about it by the electric-car company and its chief executive deserve more attention than their latest fanciful technology aspirations and timelines.</b>  <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISBC\">Investors</a> should ignore Elon Musk’s latest dance and focus instead on the growing issues Tesla is facing because of its chief executive’s exaggerated claims about his company’s technological capabilities.</p><p><blockquote><b>对自动驾驶系统的调查以及这家电动汽车公司及其首席执行官就此发表的声明比他们最新的异想天开的技术愿望和时间表更值得关注。</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISBC\">投资者</a>应该忽略Elon Musk的最新舞蹈，而是关注特斯拉因首席执行官夸大其公司技术能力而面临的日益严重的问题。</blockquote></p><p> At <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla Motors</a>’s&nbsp;AI Day late Thursday, self-named Technoking Musk said that the company is working on a humanoid robot as “Tesla is arguably the world’s biggest robotics company because our cars are like semi-sentient robots on wheels.”</p><p><blockquote>在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>周四晚些时候，自称Technoking Musk的马斯克表示，该公司正在开发一款人形机器人，因为“特斯拉可以说是世界上最大的机器人公司，因为我们的汽车就像轮子上的半感知机器人。”</blockquote></p><p> After a white-suited human did a brief dance for the believers in the audience and on a livestream, Musk came on the stage and showed only computer-generated images of a 5’8″ humanoid robot thathe claimed Tesla will produce a prototype of sometime next year. He inferred it could be used for manufacturing or boring repetitive tasks, like grocery shopping and will have a full self-driving computer.</p><p><blockquote>在一名身穿白色西装的人类为观众和直播中的信徒跳了一支简短的舞蹈后，马斯克走上舞台，只展示了一个5英尺8英寸的人形机器人的计算机生成图像，马斯克声称特斯拉将在明年的某个时候生产出一个原型。他推断它可以用于制造或无聊的重复性任务，例如杂货店购物，并且将配备全自动驾驶计算机。</blockquote></p><p> As always with Musk and Tesla, the timeline is highly doubtful to anyone with basic knowledge of the technology in question. Fortunately, the antics did not fool everyone on Wall Street, some of whom may be getting tired of his shenanigans.</p><p><blockquote>和马斯克和特斯拉一样，对于任何对相关技术有基本了解的人来说，时间表都是非常值得怀疑的。幸运的是，这些滑稽动作并没有愚弄华尔街的所有人，其中一些人可能已经厌倦了他的恶作剧。</blockquote></p><p> “Unfortunately, as we have seen with robotaxis and other future sci-fi projects for Musk, we view this&nbsp;Tesla&nbsp;Bot as an absolute head scratcher that will further agitate investors at a time the Street is showing growing concern around rising EV competition and safety issues for&nbsp;Tesla,” said Dan Ives, a Wedbush Securities analyst, in a note to clients early Friday.</p><p><blockquote>“不幸的是，正如我们在机器人出租车和马斯克未来的其他科幻项目中所看到的那样，我们认为这款特斯拉机器人绝对令人挠头，在华尔街对电动汽车竞争和安全日益担忧之际，它将进一步激怒投资者。特斯拉的问题，”韦德布什证券分析师Dan Ives在周五早些时候给客户的一份报告中表示。</blockquote></p><p> The safety issues Ives mentions are what investors should be attuned to right now, because it appears the government is finally stepping up and taking note of a problem this column has long pointed out: Musk repeatedly oversells the current and near-term potential for his automotive autonomy advanced technology.</p><p><blockquote>艾夫斯提到的安全问题是投资者现在应该关注的问题，因为政府似乎终于站出来并注意到本专栏长期以来指出的一个问题：马斯克一再高估其汽车自动驾驶先进技术的当前和近期潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> a day before Thursday’s “AI Day” spectacle,two U.S. senators asked the Federal Trade Commission to investigate both Tesla’s and Musk’s “repeated overstatements of their vehicles’ capabilities”in regards to the marketing of Tesla’s “Full Self Driving” product. Tesla charges thousands of dollars at purchase (or as little as $100 a month) for software that is nowhere near full self-driving, a practice that has already led toa recent review by California Department of Motor Vehiclesanda German ruling that Tesla could not market the product as such.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>在周四“人工智能日”奇观的前一天，两名美国参议员要求联邦贸易委员会调查特斯拉和马斯克在特斯拉“全自动驾驶”产品营销方面“一再夸大其车辆功能”的行为。特斯拉对远未完全自动驾驶的软件在购买时收取数千美元（或每月低至100美元）的费用，这种做法已经导致加州机动车辆管理局最近进行审查，德国裁定特斯拉不能销售该产品本身。</blockquote></p><p> “Language matters,” said Selika Talbott, a professorial lecturer in the department of public administration and policy at <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFG\">American</a> University in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">Washington</a> DC. “The use of this terminology is false and misleading and unsafe for the general public. The notions of assisted driving and autonomous vehicles and their differences are not fully understood by the general public.”</p><p><blockquote>“语言很重要，”塞利卡·塔尔博特(Selika Talbott)说。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFG\">美国的</a>大学在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">华盛顿州</a>直流电。“这个术语的使用是错误的、误导性的，对公众来说是不安全的。辅助驾驶和自动驾驶汽车的概念及其区别并没有被公众完全理解。”</blockquote></p><p> “Tesla has highly assisted technology in their vehicle, but at no point should anyone behind the wheel think that vehicle can drive itself, because it can’t,” Talbott said.</p><p><blockquote>塔尔博特说：“特斯拉在他们的车辆中配备了高度辅助技术，但任何驾驶人员都不应该认为车辆可以自动驾驶，因为它不能。”</blockquote></p><p> The week began with news of a federal investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot system after cars using the feature crashed into stopped emergency vehicles.The <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NHLD\">National</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HIHO\">Highway</a> Traffic Safety Administration is looking into a series of crashesby Tesla cars that had the advanced driver-assistance system enabled. NHTSA said that itopened an inquiry into 11 Tesla crashesthat involved emergency vehicles, while still investigating a series of collisions involving cars enabled with <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AEIS\">Advanced</a> Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) and tractor-trailers.</p><p><blockquote>本周伊始，有消息称，使用该功能的汽车撞上了停下来的紧急车辆，联邦政府对特斯拉的自动驾驶系统进行了调查。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NHLD\">国家的</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HIHO\">公路</a>交通安全管理局正在调查一系列启用了高级驾驶员辅助系统的特斯拉汽车发生的撞车事故。NHTSA表示，已对11起涉及紧急车辆的特斯拉事故展开调查，同时仍在调查一系列涉及启用紧急车辆的汽车的碰撞事故<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AEIS\">先进的</a>驾驶员辅助系统（ADAS）和牵引车拖车。</blockquote></p><p> The latest outcry on Capitol <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HIL\">Hill</a> follows a stream of news reports and/or social media posts and YouTube videos of drivers engaging in extremely risky behavior while testing the so-called self-driving features of their Tesla. In May, Steven Michael Hendrickson,a 35-year-old father of two in Fontana, Calif., died when his Tesla hit an overturned semitruck. Earlier he had posted videos of driving without his hands on the wheel of his car on the freeway, but the NHTSA was still investigating the role of Autopilot in the crash.</p><p><blockquote>国会大厦的最新抗议<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HIL\">山丘</a>关注一系列新闻报道和/或社交媒体帖子和YouTube视频，这些视频显示司机在测试特斯拉的所谓自动驾驶功能时做出了极其危险的行为。今年5月，加利福尼亚州丰塔纳市35岁的两个孩子的父亲Steven Michael Hendrickson在他的特斯拉撞上一辆翻倒的半挂卡车时死亡。早些时候，他发布了在高速公路上双手不放在方向盘上驾驶的视频，但NHTSA仍在调查自动驾驶仪在事故中的作用。</blockquote></p><p> “The vehicles that Tesla is producing are driver-assisted systems,” said Bryan Reimer, a research scientist at the MIT Center for Transportation and Logistics. “They are assisting the driver, and the driver needs to maintain vigilance.”</p><p><blockquote>“特斯拉正在生产的车辆是驾驶辅助系统，”麻省理工学院运输和物流中心的研究科学家布莱恩·赖默说。“他们在协助司机，司机需要保持警惕。”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> It is important to note the difference between Tesla’s dual products with misleading names. “Autopilot” is an ADAS system, a highly advanced version of cruise control meant for highway driving that enables “your car to steer, accelerate and brake automatically within its lane under your active supervision, assisting with the most burdensome parts of driving,” according to Tesla’s website. Tesla also offers the “FSD” package, now available by a subscription of $99 to $199 a month, which it describes as “access to a suite of more advanced driver assistance features, designed to provide more active guidance and assisted driving under your active supervision.”</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，特斯拉具有误导性名称的双产品之间的差异。“Autopilot”是一种ADAS系统，是一种高度先进的巡航控制版本，适用于高速公路驾驶，使“您的汽车能够在您的主动监督下在车道内自动转向、加速和制动，协助驾驶中最繁重的部分”。特斯拉的网站。特斯拉还提供“FSD”套餐，现在每月订阅费用为99至199美元，其将其描述为“访问一套更先进的驾驶员辅助功能，旨在在您的主动监督下提供更主动的指导和辅助驾驶。”</blockquote></p><p> If only Musk described these systems in a similar manner to the official website. In analyst conference calls and in Tesla’s multi-hour long presentations to its fan base, Musk has been proclaiming that with this software, full autonomy is around the corner.</p><p><blockquote>要是马斯克用和官网类似的方式描述这些系统就好了。在评级分析师会议上以及特斯拉向其粉丝群进行的长达数小时的演示中，马斯克一直宣称，有了这款软件，完全自主指日可待。</blockquote></p><p> “We&nbsp;basically&nbsp;have&nbsp;to&nbsp;solve&nbsp;real-world vision AI and we are,” he said in an earnings call in April. “And the key to solving this is also having some massive data set. So just having well over <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> million cars on the road that are collecting data… But I am highly confident that we&nbsp;will&nbsp;get&nbsp;this&nbsp;done.”</p><p><blockquote>“我们基本上必须解决现实世界的视觉人工智能，我们确实做到了，”他在4月份的财报看涨期权上表示。“解决这个问题的关键还在于拥有一些大规模的数据集。所以只要有足够的数据集<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>道路上有数百万辆汽车正在收集数据……但我非常有信心我们能够完成这项工作。”</blockquote></p><p> But for all of Musk’s bluster and huge fan base, investors are starting to note that the company’s tactics involving full self-driving technology are dangerous, as opposed to the other companies that are testing autonomous vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>但尽管马斯克夸夸其谈，拥有庞大的粉丝群，但投资者开始注意到，与其他正在测试自动驾驶汽车的公司相比，该公司涉及全自动驾驶技术的策略是危险的。</blockquote></p><p> For example, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Alphabet</a> Inc.’sGOOGGOOGLWaymo, the company with the most hours of autonomous vehicle driving, is currently operating a small scale robotaxi service in parts of Arizona around Phoenix that are not densely populated, without human drivers. It is the only one of its kind in the U.S. In California, Waymo has permits from the DMV to conduct AV testing with a human driver behind the wheel.</p><p><blockquote>例如，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Alphabet</a>Inc.旗下的GOOGGOOGLWaymo是自动驾驶汽车时间最长的公司，目前正在亚利桑那州凤凰城周围人口不稠密的地区运营小规模机器人出租车服务，没有人类司机。这是美国唯一一家此类公司。在加利福尼亚州，Waymo获得了DMV的许可，可以在人类驾驶员驾驶的情况下进行AV测试。</blockquote></p><p> “Waymo cannot just start selling their AVs to anyone, and they can’t just drive them on the roadway, our regulatory system does not allow for that,” Talbott of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMSWA\">American</a> University said. “You can test them but no publicly available self-driving car is on the market for purchase because it doesn’t exist.”</p><p><blockquote>“Waymo不能开始向任何人出售他们的自动驾驶汽车，他们也不能只是在道路上驾驶它们，我们的监管体系不允许这样做，”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMSWA\">美国的</a>大学表示。“你可以测试它们，但市场上没有公开的自动驾驶汽车可供购买，因为它不存在。”</blockquote></p><p> With FSD testing being done in the real world with untrained drivers, Tesla is conducting the equivalent of clinical trials of a new drug without any professional hourly or daily monitoring of the patient.</p><p><blockquote>随着FSD测试在现实世界中由未经训练的驾驶员进行，特斯拉正在进行相当于新药临床试验的试验，而无需对患者进行任何专业的每小时或每天监测。</blockquote></p><p> “They are calling it beta, it is a beta system, they are exposing people to substantive risk,” Reimer said.</p><p><blockquote>“他们称之为测试版，这是一个测试版系统，他们让人们面临重大风险，”赖默说。</blockquote></p><p> Musk’s latest bot is yet another distraction, much like the flame thrower in 2018 sold by his Boring Company, his unwanted assistance to try and help the boys stuck in a cave in Thailand, and other projects. Investors should not let these distractions get in the way of the real issues that Musk seems to be refusing to acknowledge as he continues to oversell his company’s technological abilities.</p><p><blockquote>马斯克的最新机器人是另一个干扰，就像他的Boring Company在2018年出售的火焰喷射器、他试图帮助被困在泰国洞穴中的男孩的不必要的帮助以及其他项目一样。投资者不应该让这些干扰妨碍马斯克似乎拒绝承认的真正问题，因为他继续夸大公司的技术能力。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Ignore Elon Musk’s dancing distraction and face the dangers ahead for Tesla<blockquote>忽略Elon Musk跳舞的干扰，面对特斯拉未来的危险</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIgnore Elon Musk’s dancing distraction and face the dangers ahead for Tesla<blockquote>忽略Elon Musk跳舞的干扰，面对特斯拉未来的危险</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-21 09:37</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>Investigations into automated-driving systems and the statements made about it by the electric-car company and its chief executive deserve more attention than their latest fanciful technology aspirations and timelines.</b>  <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISBC\">Investors</a> should ignore Elon Musk’s latest dance and focus instead on the growing issues Tesla is facing because of its chief executive’s exaggerated claims about his company’s technological capabilities.</p><p><blockquote><b>对自动驾驶系统的调查以及这家电动汽车公司及其首席执行官就此发表的声明比他们最新的异想天开的技术愿望和时间表更值得关注。</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISBC\">投资者</a>应该忽略Elon Musk的最新舞蹈，而是关注特斯拉因首席执行官夸大其公司技术能力而面临的日益严重的问题。</blockquote></p><p> At <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla Motors</a>’s&nbsp;AI Day late Thursday, self-named Technoking Musk said that the company is working on a humanoid robot as “Tesla is arguably the world’s biggest robotics company because our cars are like semi-sentient robots on wheels.”</p><p><blockquote>在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>周四晚些时候，自称Technoking Musk的马斯克表示，该公司正在开发一款人形机器人，因为“特斯拉可以说是世界上最大的机器人公司，因为我们的汽车就像轮子上的半感知机器人。”</blockquote></p><p> After a white-suited human did a brief dance for the believers in the audience and on a livestream, Musk came on the stage and showed only computer-generated images of a 5’8″ humanoid robot thathe claimed Tesla will produce a prototype of sometime next year. He inferred it could be used for manufacturing or boring repetitive tasks, like grocery shopping and will have a full self-driving computer.</p><p><blockquote>在一名身穿白色西装的人类为观众和直播中的信徒跳了一支简短的舞蹈后，马斯克走上舞台，只展示了一个5英尺8英寸的人形机器人的计算机生成图像，马斯克声称特斯拉将在明年的某个时候生产出一个原型。他推断它可以用于制造或无聊的重复性任务，例如杂货店购物，并且将配备全自动驾驶计算机。</blockquote></p><p> As always with Musk and Tesla, the timeline is highly doubtful to anyone with basic knowledge of the technology in question. Fortunately, the antics did not fool everyone on Wall Street, some of whom may be getting tired of his shenanigans.</p><p><blockquote>和马斯克和特斯拉一样，对于任何对相关技术有基本了解的人来说，时间表都是非常值得怀疑的。幸运的是，这些滑稽动作并没有愚弄华尔街的所有人，其中一些人可能已经厌倦了他的恶作剧。</blockquote></p><p> “Unfortunately, as we have seen with robotaxis and other future sci-fi projects for Musk, we view this&nbsp;Tesla&nbsp;Bot as an absolute head scratcher that will further agitate investors at a time the Street is showing growing concern around rising EV competition and safety issues for&nbsp;Tesla,” said Dan Ives, a Wedbush Securities analyst, in a note to clients early Friday.</p><p><blockquote>“不幸的是，正如我们在机器人出租车和马斯克未来的其他科幻项目中所看到的那样，我们认为这款特斯拉机器人绝对令人挠头，在华尔街对电动汽车竞争和安全日益担忧之际，它将进一步激怒投资者。特斯拉的问题，”韦德布什证券分析师Dan Ives在周五早些时候给客户的一份报告中表示。</blockquote></p><p> The safety issues Ives mentions are what investors should be attuned to right now, because it appears the government is finally stepping up and taking note of a problem this column has long pointed out: Musk repeatedly oversells the current and near-term potential for his automotive autonomy advanced technology.</p><p><blockquote>艾夫斯提到的安全问题是投资者现在应该关注的问题，因为政府似乎终于站出来并注意到本专栏长期以来指出的一个问题：马斯克一再高估其汽车自动驾驶先进技术的当前和近期潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> a day before Thursday’s “AI Day” spectacle,two U.S. senators asked the Federal Trade Commission to investigate both Tesla’s and Musk’s “repeated overstatements of their vehicles’ capabilities”in regards to the marketing of Tesla’s “Full Self Driving” product. Tesla charges thousands of dollars at purchase (or as little as $100 a month) for software that is nowhere near full self-driving, a practice that has already led toa recent review by California Department of Motor Vehiclesanda German ruling that Tesla could not market the product as such.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>在周四“人工智能日”奇观的前一天，两名美国参议员要求联邦贸易委员会调查特斯拉和马斯克在特斯拉“全自动驾驶”产品营销方面“一再夸大其车辆功能”的行为。特斯拉对远未完全自动驾驶的软件在购买时收取数千美元（或每月低至100美元）的费用，这种做法已经导致加州机动车辆管理局最近进行审查，德国裁定特斯拉不能销售该产品本身。</blockquote></p><p> “Language matters,” said Selika Talbott, a professorial lecturer in the department of public administration and policy at <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFG\">American</a> University in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">Washington</a> DC. “The use of this terminology is false and misleading and unsafe for the general public. The notions of assisted driving and autonomous vehicles and their differences are not fully understood by the general public.”</p><p><blockquote>“语言很重要，”塞利卡·塔尔博特(Selika Talbott)说。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFG\">美国的</a>大学在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">华盛顿州</a>直流电。“这个术语的使用是错误的、误导性的，对公众来说是不安全的。辅助驾驶和自动驾驶汽车的概念及其区别并没有被公众完全理解。”</blockquote></p><p> “Tesla has highly assisted technology in their vehicle, but at no point should anyone behind the wheel think that vehicle can drive itself, because it can’t,” Talbott said.</p><p><blockquote>塔尔博特说：“特斯拉在他们的车辆中配备了高度辅助技术，但任何驾驶人员都不应该认为车辆可以自动驾驶，因为它不能。”</blockquote></p><p> The week began with news of a federal investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot system after cars using the feature crashed into stopped emergency vehicles.The <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NHLD\">National</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HIHO\">Highway</a> Traffic Safety Administration is looking into a series of crashesby Tesla cars that had the advanced driver-assistance system enabled. NHTSA said that itopened an inquiry into 11 Tesla crashesthat involved emergency vehicles, while still investigating a series of collisions involving cars enabled with <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AEIS\">Advanced</a> Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) and tractor-trailers.</p><p><blockquote>本周伊始，有消息称，使用该功能的汽车撞上了停下来的紧急车辆，联邦政府对特斯拉的自动驾驶系统进行了调查。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NHLD\">国家的</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HIHO\">公路</a>交通安全管理局正在调查一系列启用了高级驾驶员辅助系统的特斯拉汽车发生的撞车事故。NHTSA表示，已对11起涉及紧急车辆的特斯拉事故展开调查，同时仍在调查一系列涉及启用紧急车辆的汽车的碰撞事故<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AEIS\">先进的</a>驾驶员辅助系统（ADAS）和牵引车拖车。</blockquote></p><p> The latest outcry on Capitol <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HIL\">Hill</a> follows a stream of news reports and/or social media posts and YouTube videos of drivers engaging in extremely risky behavior while testing the so-called self-driving features of their Tesla. In May, Steven Michael Hendrickson,a 35-year-old father of two in Fontana, Calif., died when his Tesla hit an overturned semitruck. Earlier he had posted videos of driving without his hands on the wheel of his car on the freeway, but the NHTSA was still investigating the role of Autopilot in the crash.</p><p><blockquote>国会大厦的最新抗议<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HIL\">山丘</a>关注一系列新闻报道和/或社交媒体帖子和YouTube视频，这些视频显示司机在测试特斯拉的所谓自动驾驶功能时做出了极其危险的行为。今年5月，加利福尼亚州丰塔纳市35岁的两个孩子的父亲Steven Michael Hendrickson在他的特斯拉撞上一辆翻倒的半挂卡车时死亡。早些时候，他发布了在高速公路上双手不放在方向盘上驾驶的视频，但NHTSA仍在调查自动驾驶仪在事故中的作用。</blockquote></p><p> “The vehicles that Tesla is producing are driver-assisted systems,” said Bryan Reimer, a research scientist at the MIT Center for Transportation and Logistics. “They are assisting the driver, and the driver needs to maintain vigilance.”</p><p><blockquote>“特斯拉正在生产的车辆是驾驶辅助系统，”麻省理工学院运输和物流中心的研究科学家布莱恩·赖默说。“他们在协助司机，司机需要保持警惕。”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> It is important to note the difference between Tesla’s dual products with misleading names. “Autopilot” is an ADAS system, a highly advanced version of cruise control meant for highway driving that enables “your car to steer, accelerate and brake automatically within its lane under your active supervision, assisting with the most burdensome parts of driving,” according to Tesla’s website. Tesla also offers the “FSD” package, now available by a subscription of $99 to $199 a month, which it describes as “access to a suite of more advanced driver assistance features, designed to provide more active guidance and assisted driving under your active supervision.”</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，特斯拉具有误导性名称的双产品之间的差异。“Autopilot”是一种ADAS系统，是一种高度先进的巡航控制版本，适用于高速公路驾驶，使“您的汽车能够在您的主动监督下在车道内自动转向、加速和制动，协助驾驶中最繁重的部分”。特斯拉的网站。特斯拉还提供“FSD”套餐，现在每月订阅费用为99至199美元，其将其描述为“访问一套更先进的驾驶员辅助功能，旨在在您的主动监督下提供更主动的指导和辅助驾驶。”</blockquote></p><p> If only Musk described these systems in a similar manner to the official website. In analyst conference calls and in Tesla’s multi-hour long presentations to its fan base, Musk has been proclaiming that with this software, full autonomy is around the corner.</p><p><blockquote>要是马斯克用和官网类似的方式描述这些系统就好了。在评级分析师会议上以及特斯拉向其粉丝群进行的长达数小时的演示中，马斯克一直宣称，有了这款软件，完全自主指日可待。</blockquote></p><p> “We&nbsp;basically&nbsp;have&nbsp;to&nbsp;solve&nbsp;real-world vision AI and we are,” he said in an earnings call in April. “And the key to solving this is also having some massive data set. So just having well over <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> million cars on the road that are collecting data… But I am highly confident that we&nbsp;will&nbsp;get&nbsp;this&nbsp;done.”</p><p><blockquote>“我们基本上必须解决现实世界的视觉人工智能，我们确实做到了，”他在4月份的财报看涨期权上表示。“解决这个问题的关键还在于拥有一些大规模的数据集。所以只要有足够的数据集<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>道路上有数百万辆汽车正在收集数据……但我非常有信心我们能够完成这项工作。”</blockquote></p><p> But for all of Musk’s bluster and huge fan base, investors are starting to note that the company’s tactics involving full self-driving technology are dangerous, as opposed to the other companies that are testing autonomous vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>但尽管马斯克夸夸其谈，拥有庞大的粉丝群，但投资者开始注意到，与其他正在测试自动驾驶汽车的公司相比，该公司涉及全自动驾驶技术的策略是危险的。</blockquote></p><p> For example, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Alphabet</a> Inc.’sGOOGGOOGLWaymo, the company with the most hours of autonomous vehicle driving, is currently operating a small scale robotaxi service in parts of Arizona around Phoenix that are not densely populated, without human drivers. It is the only one of its kind in the U.S. In California, Waymo has permits from the DMV to conduct AV testing with a human driver behind the wheel.</p><p><blockquote>例如，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Alphabet</a>Inc.旗下的GOOGGOOGLWaymo是自动驾驶汽车时间最长的公司，目前正在亚利桑那州凤凰城周围人口不稠密的地区运营小规模机器人出租车服务，没有人类司机。这是美国唯一一家此类公司。在加利福尼亚州，Waymo获得了DMV的许可，可以在人类驾驶员驾驶的情况下进行AV测试。</blockquote></p><p> “Waymo cannot just start selling their AVs to anyone, and they can’t just drive them on the roadway, our regulatory system does not allow for that,” Talbott of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMSWA\">American</a> University said. “You can test them but no publicly available self-driving car is on the market for purchase because it doesn’t exist.”</p><p><blockquote>“Waymo不能开始向任何人出售他们的自动驾驶汽车，他们也不能只是在道路上驾驶它们，我们的监管体系不允许这样做，”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMSWA\">美国的</a>大学表示。“你可以测试它们，但市场上没有公开的自动驾驶汽车可供购买，因为它不存在。”</blockquote></p><p> With FSD testing being done in the real world with untrained drivers, Tesla is conducting the equivalent of clinical trials of a new drug without any professional hourly or daily monitoring of the patient.</p><p><blockquote>随着FSD测试在现实世界中由未经训练的驾驶员进行，特斯拉正在进行相当于新药临床试验的试验，而无需对患者进行任何专业的每小时或每天监测。</blockquote></p><p> “They are calling it beta, it is a beta system, they are exposing people to substantive risk,” Reimer said.</p><p><blockquote>“他们称之为测试版，这是一个测试版系统，他们让人们面临重大风险，”赖默说。</blockquote></p><p> Musk’s latest bot is yet another distraction, much like the flame thrower in 2018 sold by his Boring Company, his unwanted assistance to try and help the boys stuck in a cave in Thailand, and other projects. Investors should not let these distractions get in the way of the real issues that Musk seems to be refusing to acknowledge as he continues to oversell his company’s technological abilities.</p><p><blockquote>马斯克的最新机器人是另一个干扰，就像他的Boring Company在2018年出售的火焰喷射器、他试图帮助被困在泰国洞穴中的男孩的不必要的帮助以及其他项目一样。投资者不应该让这些干扰妨碍马斯克似乎拒绝承认的真正问题，因为他继续夸大公司的技术能力。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ignore-elon-musks-dancing-distraction-and-face-the-dangers-ahead-for-tesla-11629488276?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ignore-elon-musks-dancing-distraction-and-face-the-dangers-ahead-for-tesla-11629488276?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1107075259","content_text":"Investigations into automated-driving systems and the statements made about it by the electric-car company and its chief executive deserve more attention than their latest fanciful technology aspirations and timelines.\n\nInvestors should ignore Elon Musk’s latest dance and focus instead on the growing issues Tesla is facing because of its chief executive’s exaggerated claims about his company’s technological capabilities.\nAt Tesla Motors’s AI Day late Thursday, self-named Technoking Musk said that the company is working on a humanoid robot as “Tesla is arguably the world’s biggest robotics company because our cars are like semi-sentient robots on wheels.”\nAfter a white-suited human did a brief dance for the believers in the audience and on a livestream, Musk came on the stage and showed only computer-generated images of a 5’8″ humanoid robot thathe claimed Tesla will produce a prototype of sometime next year. He inferred it could be used for manufacturing or boring repetitive tasks, like grocery shopping and will have a full self-driving computer.\nAs always with Musk and Tesla, the timeline is highly doubtful to anyone with basic knowledge of the technology in question. Fortunately, the antics did not fool everyone on Wall Street, some of whom may be getting tired of his shenanigans.\n“Unfortunately, as we have seen with robotaxis and other future sci-fi projects for Musk, we view this Tesla Bot as an absolute head scratcher that will further agitate investors at a time the Street is showing growing concern around rising EV competition and safety issues for Tesla,” said Dan Ives, a Wedbush Securities analyst, in a note to clients early Friday.\nThe safety issues Ives mentions are what investors should be attuned to right now, because it appears the government is finally stepping up and taking note of a problem this column has long pointed out: Musk repeatedly oversells the current and near-term potential for his automotive autonomy advanced technology.\nJust a day before Thursday’s “AI Day” spectacle,two U.S. senators asked the Federal Trade Commission to investigate both Tesla’s and Musk’s “repeated overstatements of their vehicles’ capabilities”in regards to the marketing of Tesla’s “Full Self Driving” product. Tesla charges thousands of dollars at purchase (or as little as $100 a month) for software that is nowhere near full self-driving, a practice that has already led toa recent review by California Department of Motor Vehiclesanda German ruling that Tesla could not market the product as such.\n“Language matters,” said Selika Talbott, a professorial lecturer in the department of public administration and policy at American University in Washington DC. “The use of this terminology is false and misleading and unsafe for the general public. The notions of assisted driving and autonomous vehicles and their differences are not fully understood by the general public.”\n“Tesla has highly assisted technology in their vehicle, but at no point should anyone behind the wheel think that vehicle can drive itself, because it can’t,” Talbott said.\nThe week began with news of a federal investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot system after cars using the feature crashed into stopped emergency vehicles.The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration is looking into a series of crashesby Tesla cars that had the advanced driver-assistance system enabled. NHTSA said that itopened an inquiry into 11 Tesla crashesthat involved emergency vehicles, while still investigating a series of collisions involving cars enabled with Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) and tractor-trailers.\nThe latest outcry on Capitol Hill follows a stream of news reports and/or social media posts and YouTube videos of drivers engaging in extremely risky behavior while testing the so-called self-driving features of their Tesla. In May, Steven Michael Hendrickson,a 35-year-old father of two in Fontana, Calif., died when his Tesla hit an overturned semitruck. Earlier he had posted videos of driving without his hands on the wheel of his car on the freeway, but the NHTSA was still investigating the role of Autopilot in the crash.\n“The vehicles that Tesla is producing are driver-assisted systems,” said Bryan Reimer, a research scientist at the MIT Center for Transportation and Logistics. “They are assisting the driver, and the driver needs to maintain vigilance.”\nIt is important to note the difference between Tesla’s dual products with misleading names. “Autopilot” is an ADAS system, a highly advanced version of cruise control meant for highway driving that enables “your car to steer, accelerate and brake automatically within its lane under your active supervision, assisting with the most burdensome parts of driving,” according to Tesla’s website. Tesla also offers the “FSD” package, now available by a subscription of $99 to $199 a month, which it describes as “access to a suite of more advanced driver assistance features, designed to provide more active guidance and assisted driving under your active supervision.”\nIf only Musk described these systems in a similar manner to the official website. In analyst conference calls and in Tesla’s multi-hour long presentations to its fan base, Musk has been proclaiming that with this software, full autonomy is around the corner.\n“We basically have to solve real-world vision AI and we are,” he said in an earnings call in April. “And the key to solving this is also having some massive data set. So just having well over one million cars on the road that are collecting data… But I am highly confident that we will get this done.”\nBut for all of Musk’s bluster and huge fan base, investors are starting to note that the company’s tactics involving full self-driving technology are dangerous, as opposed to the other companies that are testing autonomous vehicles.\nFor example, Alphabet Inc.’sGOOGGOOGLWaymo, the company with the most hours of autonomous vehicle driving, is currently operating a small scale robotaxi service in parts of Arizona around Phoenix that are not densely populated, without human drivers. It is the only one of its kind in the U.S. In California, Waymo has permits from the DMV to conduct AV testing with a human driver behind the wheel.\n“Waymo cannot just start selling their AVs to anyone, and they can’t just drive them on the roadway, our regulatory system does not allow for that,” Talbott of American University said. “You can test them but no publicly available self-driving car is on the market for purchase because it doesn’t exist.”\nWith FSD testing being done in the real world with untrained drivers, Tesla is conducting the equivalent of clinical trials of a new drug without any professional hourly or daily monitoring of the patient.\n“They are calling it beta, it is a beta system, they are exposing people to substantive risk,” Reimer said.\nMusk’s latest bot is yet another distraction, much like the flame thrower in 2018 sold by his Boring Company, his unwanted assistance to try and help the boys stuck in a cave in Thailand, and other projects. Investors should not let these distractions get in the way of the real issues that Musk seems to be refusing to acknowledge as he continues to oversell his company’s technological abilities.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":761,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":833717639,"gmtCreate":1629262897921,"gmtModify":1633686114799,"author":{"id":"4090570965971460","authorId":"4090570965971460","name":"KeN3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffc770a2d3626a3e029ba2c461aac13d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090570965971460","idStr":"4090570965971460"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Loved using their phones and products","listText":"Loved using their phones and products","text":"Loved using their phones and products","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/833717639","repostId":"2160781981","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":496,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":833717972,"gmtCreate":1629262850196,"gmtModify":1633686115248,"author":{"id":"4090570965971460","authorId":"4090570965971460","name":"KeN3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffc770a2d3626a3e029ba2c461aac13d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090570965971460","idStr":"4090570965971460"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Still a good stock to get, but what price?","listText":"Still a good stock to get, but what price?","text":"Still a good stock to get, but what price?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/833717972","repostId":"2160207426","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":837,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":839812020,"gmtCreate":1629140301260,"gmtModify":1633687132357,"author":{"id":"4090570965971460","authorId":"4090570965971460","name":"KeN3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffc770a2d3626a3e029ba2c461aac13d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090570965971460","idStr":"4090570965971460"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Still moving up....","listText":"Still moving up....","text":"Still moving up....","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/839812020","repostId":"1135212237","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1135212237","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1629125001,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1135212237?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-16 22:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Big tech stocks fell in morning trading, Apple fell over 1% after reaching record high<blockquote>大型科技股早盘下跌苹果创历史新高后跌超1%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135212237","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(Aug 16) Big tech stocks fell in morning trading. Apple fell over 1% after reaching record high at $","content":"<p>(Aug 16)&nbsp;Big tech stocks fell in morning trading. Apple fell over 1% after reaching record high at $150.59.</p><p><blockquote>（8月16日）大型科技股早盘下跌。苹果在触及150.59美元的历史新高后跌超1%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7c0f1effcd77008de0ea3edac4e6766\" tg-width=\"309\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Big tech stocks fell in morning trading, Apple fell over 1% after reaching record high<blockquote>大型科技股早盘下跌苹果创历史新高后跌超1%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBig tech stocks fell in morning trading, Apple fell over 1% after reaching record high<blockquote>大型科技股早盘下跌苹果创历史新高后跌超1%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-16 22:43</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Aug 16)&nbsp;Big tech stocks fell in morning trading. Apple fell over 1% after reaching record high at $150.59.</p><p><blockquote>（8月16日）大型科技股早盘下跌。苹果在触及150.59美元的历史新高后跌超1%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7c0f1effcd77008de0ea3edac4e6766\" tg-width=\"309\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1135212237","content_text":"(Aug 16) Big tech stocks fell in morning trading. Apple fell over 1% after reaching record high at $150.59.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":471,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":830796407,"gmtCreate":1629096832509,"gmtModify":1633687424877,"author":{"id":"4090570965971460","authorId":"4090570965971460","name":"KeN3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffc770a2d3626a3e029ba2c461aac13d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090570965971460","idStr":"4090570965971460"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Bleeding in progress&nbsp;","listText":"Bleeding in progress&nbsp;","text":"Bleeding in progress","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/830796407","repostId":"2159241177","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":758,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":830065575,"gmtCreate":1628994251797,"gmtModify":1633688108277,"author":{"id":"4090570965971460","authorId":"4090570965971460","name":"KeN3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffc770a2d3626a3e029ba2c461aac13d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090570965971460","idStr":"4090570965971460"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"No wonder price is going up","listText":"No wonder price is going up","text":"No wonder price is going up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/830065575","repostId":"2159321288","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2159321288","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1628990553,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2159321288?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-15 09:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Regulatory Risk Is A Silver Lining For Apple And Google<blockquote>为什么监管风险对苹果和谷歌来说是一线希望</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2159321288","media":"Benzinga","summary":"The threat of regulation has been looming over big tech giants such as Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) and","content":"<p>The threat of regulation has been looming over big tech giants such as <b>Apple Inc. </b>(NASDAQ: AAPL) and <b>Alphabet Inc. </b>(NASDAQ: GOOGL) (NASDAQ: GOOG) over the past three years.</p><p><blockquote>监管的威胁一直笼罩着大型科技巨头，例如<b>苹果公司。</b>（纳斯达克：AAPL）和<b>Alphabet公司。</b>（纳斯达克：GOOGL）（纳斯达克：GOOG）过去三年。</blockquote></p><p> With a bill seeking broader changes in the way Apple and Google operate their respective app stores introduced this week, Loup Funds Managing Partner Gene Munster offered his take on what is in store for these companies.</p><p><blockquote>随着本周推出的一项法案寻求对苹果和谷歌运营各自应用商店的方式进行更广泛的改变，Loup Funds管理合伙人吉恩·蒙斯特(Gene Munster)提出了他对这些公司未来的看法。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What the New Legislation Is All About: </b> The changes proposed by the legislation calls for allowing third-party app stores with the App Store and Google Play store, Munster noted. Both companies are also called to allow app developers to explicitly advertise within apps, so that consumers can subscribe and make purchases outside of the App Store or the Google Play Store, he added.</p><p><blockquote><b>新立法的内容是：</b>蒙斯特指出，评级立法提出的允许第三方应用商店与App Store和谷歌Play商店合作的变化。他补充说，两家公司还被要求允许应用程序开发者在应用程序内明确做广告，以便消费者可以在App Store或Google Play商店之外订阅和购买。</blockquote></p><p> This will help avoiding the 30% take rate on in-app purchases, the analyst said.</p><p><blockquote>分析师表示，这将有助于避免应用内购买30%的采用率。</blockquote></p><p> The proposed bill will have to be approved by the House and Senate before becoming law, Munster said.</p><p><blockquote>明斯特说，拟议的法案在成为法律之前必须得到众议院和参议院的批准。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Regulation Not Automatically Negative: </b> The end result of regulation is not automatically negative for big tech, given unintended consequences often occur when incentives change, Munster said.</p><p><blockquote><b>调节不自动为负：</b>蒙斯特表示，监管的最终结果不会自动对大型科技公司产生负面影响，因为当激励措施发生变化时，往往会出现意想不到的后果。</blockquote></p><p> Even if Apple buckles under pressure and reduces its take rate from 30% to 10% - a possibility which is unlikely – it could still make more money ultimately, the analyst said. A reduction in fees will likely spur greater growth in the app development ecosystem, he added.</p><p><blockquote>分析师表示，即使苹果在压力下屈服，将接受率从30%降至10%（这种可能性不太可能），它最终仍可能赚更多钱。他补充说，费用的降低可能会刺激应用程序开发生态系统的更大增长。</blockquote></p><p> Apple and Google, according to the analyst, have the stronger case, given they created their mobile app stores and are responsible for maintaining them, the analyst said. They, therefore, should have control over how things are curated and distributed within the stores, he added.</p><p><blockquote>分析师表示，苹果和谷歌拥有更强的理由，因为它们创建了自己的移动应用商店并负责维护这些商店。他补充说，因此，他们应该控制商店内商品的策划和分销方式。</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, opening the iPhone to third-party app stores, the analyst said, will weaken security and privacy, thereby harming consumers.</p><p><blockquote>此外，该分析师表示，向第三方应用商店开放iPhone将削弱安全性和隐私，从而损害消费者。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Munster's Take On Potential Regulation: </b> The likelihood of radical regulation as low, Munster said. If any regulations do&nbsp;materialize, the most likely outcome is that Apple and Google will be forced to remove their anti-steering clauses, thereby allowing publishers to advertise payment options outside of the default in-app payment systems, the analyst said.</p><p><blockquote><b>明斯特对潜在监管的看法：</b>明斯特说，激进监管的可能性很低。该分析师表示，如果任何法规真的成为现实，最有可能的结果是苹果和谷歌将被迫删除其反转向条款，从而允许出版商在默认的应用内支付系统之外宣传支付选项。</blockquote></p><p> \"This would have limited impact on consumer app store engagement given the easiest way to manage app spending will be to remain inside the respective walled gardens,\" the analyst concluded.</p><p><blockquote>这位分析师总结道：“这对消费者应用商店参与度的影响有限，因为管理应用支出最简单的方法是留在各自的围墙花园里。”</blockquote></p><p> Apple closed Friday's session down 0.14% at $149.10 and Google ended nearly flat at $2,768.12.</p><p><blockquote>苹果周五收盘下跌0.14%，至149.10美元，谷歌收盘几乎持平，至2,768.12美元。</blockquote></p><p> Latest Ratings for AAPL</p><p><blockquote>AAPL的最新评级</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <th>Date</th>    <th>Firm</th>    <th>Action</th>    <th>From</th>    <th>To</th>   </tr>  </tbody>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td>Jul 2021</td>    <td>Loop Capital</td>    <td>Maintains</td>    <td></td>    <td>Buy</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Jul 2021</td>    <td>Deutsche Bank</td>    <td>Maintains</td>    <td></td>    <td>Buy</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Jul 2021</td>    <td>Piper Sandler</td>    <td>Maintains</td>    <td></td>    <td>Overweight</td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><th>日期</th><th>公司</th><th>行动</th><th>来自</th><th>到</th></tr></tbody><tbody><tr><td>2021年7月</td><td>循环资本</td><td>维护</td><td></td><td>购买</td></tr><tr><td>2021年7月</td><td>德意志银行</td><td>维护</td><td></td><td>购买</td></tr><tr><td>2021年7月</td><td>派珀·桑德勒</td><td>维护</td><td></td><td>跑赢大盘</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Regulatory Risk Is A Silver Lining For Apple And Google<blockquote>为什么监管风险对苹果和谷歌来说是一线希望</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-15 09:22</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The threat of regulation has been looming over big tech giants such as <b>Apple Inc. </b>(NASDAQ: AAPL) and <b>Alphabet Inc. </b>(NASDAQ: GOOGL) (NASDAQ: GOOG) over the past three years.</p><p><blockquote>监管的威胁一直笼罩着大型科技巨头，例如<b>苹果公司。</b>（纳斯达克：AAPL）和<b>Alphabet公司。</b>（纳斯达克：GOOGL）（纳斯达克：GOOG）过去三年。</blockquote></p><p> With a bill seeking broader changes in the way Apple and Google operate their respective app stores introduced this week, Loup Funds Managing Partner Gene Munster offered his take on what is in store for these companies.</p><p><blockquote>随着本周推出的一项法案寻求对苹果和谷歌运营各自应用商店的方式进行更广泛的改变，Loup Funds管理合伙人吉恩·蒙斯特(Gene Munster)提出了他对这些公司未来的看法。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What the New Legislation Is All About: </b> The changes proposed by the legislation calls for allowing third-party app stores with the App Store and Google Play store, Munster noted. Both companies are also called to allow app developers to explicitly advertise within apps, so that consumers can subscribe and make purchases outside of the App Store or the Google Play Store, he added.</p><p><blockquote><b>新立法的内容是：</b>蒙斯特指出，评级立法提出的允许第三方应用商店与App Store和谷歌Play商店合作的变化。他补充说，两家公司还被要求允许应用程序开发者在应用程序内明确做广告，以便消费者可以在App Store或Google Play商店之外订阅和购买。</blockquote></p><p> This will help avoiding the 30% take rate on in-app purchases, the analyst said.</p><p><blockquote>分析师表示，这将有助于避免应用内购买30%的采用率。</blockquote></p><p> The proposed bill will have to be approved by the House and Senate before becoming law, Munster said.</p><p><blockquote>明斯特说，拟议的法案在成为法律之前必须得到众议院和参议院的批准。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Regulation Not Automatically Negative: </b> The end result of regulation is not automatically negative for big tech, given unintended consequences often occur when incentives change, Munster said.</p><p><blockquote><b>调节不自动为负：</b>蒙斯特表示，监管的最终结果不会自动对大型科技公司产生负面影响，因为当激励措施发生变化时，往往会出现意想不到的后果。</blockquote></p><p> Even if Apple buckles under pressure and reduces its take rate from 30% to 10% - a possibility which is unlikely – it could still make more money ultimately, the analyst said. A reduction in fees will likely spur greater growth in the app development ecosystem, he added.</p><p><blockquote>分析师表示，即使苹果在压力下屈服，将接受率从30%降至10%（这种可能性不太可能），它最终仍可能赚更多钱。他补充说，费用的降低可能会刺激应用程序开发生态系统的更大增长。</blockquote></p><p> Apple and Google, according to the analyst, have the stronger case, given they created their mobile app stores and are responsible for maintaining them, the analyst said. They, therefore, should have control over how things are curated and distributed within the stores, he added.</p><p><blockquote>分析师表示，苹果和谷歌拥有更强的理由，因为它们创建了自己的移动应用商店并负责维护这些商店。他补充说，因此，他们应该控制商店内商品的策划和分销方式。</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, opening the iPhone to third-party app stores, the analyst said, will weaken security and privacy, thereby harming consumers.</p><p><blockquote>此外，该分析师表示，向第三方应用商店开放iPhone将削弱安全性和隐私，从而损害消费者。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Munster's Take On Potential Regulation: </b> The likelihood of radical regulation as low, Munster said. If any regulations do&nbsp;materialize, the most likely outcome is that Apple and Google will be forced to remove their anti-steering clauses, thereby allowing publishers to advertise payment options outside of the default in-app payment systems, the analyst said.</p><p><blockquote><b>明斯特对潜在监管的看法：</b>明斯特说，激进监管的可能性很低。该分析师表示，如果任何法规真的成为现实，最有可能的结果是苹果和谷歌将被迫删除其反转向条款，从而允许出版商在默认的应用内支付系统之外宣传支付选项。</blockquote></p><p> \"This would have limited impact on consumer app store engagement given the easiest way to manage app spending will be to remain inside the respective walled gardens,\" the analyst concluded.</p><p><blockquote>这位分析师总结道：“这对消费者应用商店参与度的影响有限，因为管理应用支出最简单的方法是留在各自的围墙花园里。”</blockquote></p><p> Apple closed Friday's session down 0.14% at $149.10 and Google ended nearly flat at $2,768.12.</p><p><blockquote>苹果周五收盘下跌0.14%，至149.10美元，谷歌收盘几乎持平，至2,768.12美元。</blockquote></p><p> Latest Ratings for AAPL</p><p><blockquote>AAPL的最新评级</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <th>Date</th>    <th>Firm</th>    <th>Action</th>    <th>From</th>    <th>To</th>   </tr>  </tbody>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td>Jul 2021</td>    <td>Loop Capital</td>    <td>Maintains</td>    <td></td>    <td>Buy</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Jul 2021</td>    <td>Deutsche Bank</td>    <td>Maintains</td>    <td></td>    <td>Buy</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Jul 2021</td>    <td>Piper Sandler</td>    <td>Maintains</td>    <td></td>    <td>Overweight</td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><th>日期</th><th>公司</th><th>行动</th><th>来自</th><th>到</th></tr></tbody><tbody><tr><td>2021年7月</td><td>循环资本</td><td>维护</td><td></td><td>购买</td></tr><tr><td>2021年7月</td><td>德意志银行</td><td>维护</td><td></td><td>购买</td></tr><tr><td>2021年7月</td><td>派珀·桑德勒</td><td>维护</td><td></td><td>跑赢大盘</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GOOG":"谷歌","GOOGL":"谷歌A","AAPL":"苹果"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2159321288","content_text":"The threat of regulation has been looming over big tech giants such as Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) and Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOGL) (NASDAQ: GOOG) over the past three years.\nWith a bill seeking broader changes in the way Apple and Google operate their respective app stores introduced this week, Loup Funds Managing Partner Gene Munster offered his take on what is in store for these companies.\nWhat the New Legislation Is All About:  The changes proposed by the legislation calls for allowing third-party app stores with the App Store and Google Play store, Munster noted. Both companies are also called to allow app developers to explicitly advertise within apps, so that consumers can subscribe and make purchases outside of the App Store or the Google Play Store, he added.\nThis will help avoiding the 30% take rate on in-app purchases, the analyst said.\nThe proposed bill will have to be approved by the House and Senate before becoming law, Munster said.\nRegulation Not Automatically Negative:  The end result of regulation is not automatically negative for big tech, given unintended consequences often occur when incentives change, Munster said.\nEven if Apple buckles under pressure and reduces its take rate from 30% to 10% - a possibility which is unlikely – it could still make more money ultimately, the analyst said. A reduction in fees will likely spur greater growth in the app development ecosystem, he added.\nApple and Google, according to the analyst, have the stronger case, given they created their mobile app stores and are responsible for maintaining them, the analyst said. They, therefore, should have control over how things are curated and distributed within the stores, he added.\nAdditionally, opening the iPhone to third-party app stores, the analyst said, will weaken security and privacy, thereby harming consumers.\nMunster's Take On Potential Regulation:  The likelihood of radical regulation as low, Munster said. If any regulations do materialize, the most likely outcome is that Apple and Google will be forced to remove their anti-steering clauses, thereby allowing publishers to advertise payment options outside of the default in-app payment systems, the analyst said.\n\"This would have limited impact on consumer app store engagement given the easiest way to manage app spending will be to remain inside the respective walled gardens,\" the analyst concluded.\nApple closed Friday's session down 0.14% at $149.10 and Google ended nearly flat at $2,768.12.\nLatest Ratings for AAPL\n\n\n\nDate\nFirm\nAction\nFrom\nTo\n\n\n\n\nJul 2021\nLoop Capital\nMaintains\n\nBuy\n\n\nJul 2021\nDeutsche Bank\nMaintains\n\nBuy\n\n\nJul 2021\nPiper Sandler\nMaintains\n\nOverweight","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9,"GOOG":0.9,"GOOGL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":532,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":897641925,"gmtCreate":1628916176267,"gmtModify":1633688502893,"author":{"id":"4090570965971460","authorId":"4090570965971460","name":"KeN3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffc770a2d3626a3e029ba2c461aac13d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090570965971460","idStr":"4090570965971460"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Gotta keep eyes on it","listText":"Gotta keep eyes on it","text":"Gotta keep eyes on it","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/897641925","repostId":"2159655218","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":534,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":815352738,"gmtCreate":1630648763424,"gmtModify":1631883982194,"author":{"id":"4090570965971460","authorId":"4090570965971460","name":"KeN3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffc770a2d3626a3e029ba2c461aac13d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090570965971460","idStr":"4090570965971460"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"What goes up will eventually come down. Just have to exit before the fall","listText":"What goes up will eventually come down. Just have to exit before the fall","text":"What goes up will eventually come down. Just have to exit before the fall","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/815352738","repostId":"1115112299","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1115112299","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630641559,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1115112299?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-03 11:59","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What Will Happen When Trillions In Stimulus Run Out In 2022?<blockquote>2022年数万亿刺激用完会发生什么？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115112299","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe US economy and stock market have benefitted from an unprecedented amount of stimulus in","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The US economy and stock market have benefitted from an unprecedented amount of stimulus in 2021.</li>  <li>With expanded unemployment set to end, student loan &amp; mortgage forbearance to end, and a possible corporate tax rate hike on the horizon, it's possible 2022 earnings estimates for stocks are simply too high.</li>  <li>In light of this, the broad stock market faces an unattractive risk-reward proposition.</li>  <li>I break down the possibilities and game plan with expert value/dividend investor Sam Kovacs.</li> </ul> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>2021年，美国经济和股市受益于前所未有的刺激措施。</li><li>随着失业扩大即将结束，学生贷款和抵押贷款忍耐即将结束，以及企业税率可能上调，2022年股市盈利预期可能太高了。</li><li>有鉴于此，整个股市面临着一个没有吸引力的风险回报命题。</li><li>我与专家价值/股息投资者萨姆·科瓦奇一起分析了可能性和游戏计划。</li></ul><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> <i>Logan–</i>The United States government has turned to an unprecedented amount of fiscal and monetary stimulus to help the economy through the COVID-19 pandemic. Notable examples include multiple rounds of stimulus checks, the student loan pause, mortgage forbearance/eviction moratorium, PPP, and enhanced unemployment benefits. So far, this effort seems to have been successful, although critics point out that it has resulted in significant increases in inflation. However, the political and economic reality is that the US can't run $3 trillion deficits forever, at least without everyone implicitly paying for it via higher consumer prices compared to their earnings.</p><p><blockquote><i>洛根-</i>美国政府已经转向前所未有的财政和货币刺激措施，以帮助经济度过新冠肺炎疫情。值得注意的例子包括多轮刺激检查、学生贷款暂停、抵押贷款延期/驱逐暂停、PPP和提高失业福利。到目前为止，这一努力似乎是成功的，尽管批评者指出，这导致了通货膨胀的显著上升。然而，政治和经济现实是，美国不可能永远保持3万亿美元的赤字，至少在每个人都没有通过高于其收入的消费者价格来隐性支付赤字的情况下。</blockquote></p><p> The weight of theevidence suggeststhat prices are rising faster than wages. In turn, the government has stepped in to fill this gap with stimulus payments, but the trillion-dollar question is what happens when the economy has to run on its own productivity–rather than on temporary transfer payments. For 2021, thanks to pent-up demand and stimulus, S&amp;P 500 components are expected to smash the record for the highest amount ever earned in a year (somewhere between $200 and $205 per share for 2021, vs. the previous record of $163 in 2019). Wall Street analysts additionally expect the S&amp;P 500 to earn~$215 per share in 2022, which would be yet another record. When you pull numbers forproductivity and economic output, the picture isn't as great, which helps explain why there are so many shortages of goods and services right now. If you feel that the change in nominal economic output is more indicative of what corporations can earn over the medium term (taking away the impact of consumers spending temporary transfer payments), you get an earnings number for the S&amp;P 500 closer to $180, which is about 15 percent lower than Wall Street is currently expecting.</p><p><blockquote>大量证据表明，物价上涨速度快于工资上涨速度。反过来，政府已经介入，通过刺激支付来填补这一缺口，但万亿美元的问题是，当经济不得不依靠自身生产力而不是临时转移支付来运行时会发生什么。2021年，由于被压抑的需求和刺激措施，标普500组件预计将打破一年内最高收入记录（2021年每股收入在200美元至205美元之间，而2019年的纪录为163美元）。此外，华尔街分析师预计标普500 2022年每股收益约为215美元，这将再创历史新高。当你计算生产率和经济产出的数字时，情况就不那么好了，这有助于解释为什么现在商品和服务如此短缺。如果你认为名义经济产出的变化更能反映企业在中期内的收入（剔除消费者支出临时转移支付的影响），你会得到标普500的收入数字接近180美元，这比华尔街目前的预期低约15%。</blockquote></p><p> Putting further pressure on earnings is the potential corporate tax hike from 21 percent to 25 percent, which will decrease S&amp;P 500 earnings by 5 percent, all else being equal. Political betting markets show that this has a roughly50/50 chance of becoming lawat the moment. With many investors making easy money piling into low-conviction, high momentum names, the consequences of unwinding stimulus could be a shock to their portfolio balances. Helping me make sense of the stimulus unwind is fellow<i>Seeking Alpha</i>authorSam Kovacs.Although living halfway across the world from me here in suburban Texas, Sam and I think eerily alike about the markets, gravitating to high-quality stocks with solid earnings and dividends.</p><p><blockquote>给盈利带来进一步压力的是潜在的公司税从21%提高到25%，在其他条件相同的情况下，这将使标普500的盈利减少5%。政治博彩市场显示，这有大约50/50的机会成为lawat时刻。随着许多轻松赚钱的投资者涌入低信心、高势头的股票，取消刺激措施的后果可能会对他们的投资组合平衡造成冲击。帮助我理解刺激放松是同伴<i>寻求阿尔法</i>作者萨姆·科瓦奇。尽管住在德克萨斯州郊区，与我相隔半个地球，但我和萨姆对市场的看法却出奇地相似，都被具有稳定收益和股息的优质股票所吸引。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Sam–</i>Within the first couple of months of the Fed’s reaction to the pandemic, I was concerned that they would be placing themselves between a rock and a hard place. I would not have wanted to be in Powell’s shoes, but then again there aren’t many government jobs I’d consider taking. Striking a balance between pulling stimulus too early and risking runaway inflation is no easy task. The government has looked to prior crashes and decided that risking inflation was the way to go.</p><p><blockquote><i>山姆-</i>在美联储对疫情做出反应的头几个月里，我担心他们会进退两难。我不想站在鲍威尔的立场上，但话说回来，我会考虑接受的政府工作并不多。在过早取消刺激措施和通胀失控风险之间取得平衡绝非易事。政府回顾了之前的崩盘，并决定冒通胀风险是正确的选择。</blockquote></p><p> Keep telling the people that it is “transitory” and surely it will be. But anyone who has taken Econ 101 knows that inflation feeds on itself. At first, companies are reactionary, but then they become proactive in pricing measures. Here are a few snippets.</p><p><blockquote>不断告诉人们这是“暂时的”，而且肯定会是。但是任何学过经济学101的人都知道，通货膨胀是自我驱动的。起初，公司是反动的，但后来它们在定价措施上变得积极主动。这里有几个片段。</blockquote></p><p> From Hormel's (HRL) latestcall:</p><p><blockquote>来自荷美尔(HRL)的最新电话：</blockquote></p><p> <i>We have taken numerous pricing actions across the portfolio to protect profitability. The actions will take place early in the third quarter with additional pricing actions likely.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>我们在整个投资组合中采取了大量定价行动来保护盈利能力。这些行动将在第三季度初进行，并可能采取额外的定价行动。</i></blockquote></p><p> From Conagra's (CAG) latestcall:</p><p><blockquote>来自康尼格拉(CAG)的最新电话：</blockquote></p><p> <i>And the short answer is yes. In fact, we began implementing pricing actions on some of our products in the quarter related to the initial inflation we experienced. The very early read on the data from those actions is that our elasticities look good so far. And we have more pricing coming.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>简短的回答是肯定的。事实上，我们在本季度开始对一些产品实施与我们经历的最初通货膨胀相关的定价行动。对这些行动数据的早期解读是，到目前为止，我们的弹性看起来不错。我们还将推出更多定价。</i></blockquote></p><p> There will be no shortage of inflation in food in upcoming quarters. Oil price still has a couple of quarters of weak comparables which continue to contribute to higher headline inflation rates.</p><p><blockquote>未来几个季度不会出现食品通胀。油价仍有几个季度的疲软可比数据，这继续导致整体通胀率上升。</blockquote></p><p> Food &amp; transportation, along with housing are the major costs of US households. For1/6thof adults, you can throw in student loans as well. US consumers have been able to absorb the inflation on the back of various stimulus efforts.</p><p><blockquote>食品、交通以及住房是美国家庭的主要开支。对于1/6的成年人，你也可以提供学生贷款。在各种刺激措施的支持下，美国消费者已经能够吸收通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But the stimulus can’t last forever. Part of it is being extended as Delta is slowing (not killing) the recovery. What happens when the different forms of stimulus fade? That’s what we’re going to look at in the rest of the article.</p><p><blockquote>但刺激不可能永远持续下去。由于达美航空正在减缓（而不是扼杀）复苏，其中一部分正在延长。当不同形式的刺激消退时会发生什么？这就是我们将在本文的其余部分中讨论的内容。</blockquote></p><p> The Eviction/Foreclosure Moratorium</p><p><blockquote>暂停驱逐/取消抵押品赎回权</blockquote></p><p> <i>Logan–</i>Foreclosures have started again, and the Supreme Court recentlystruck downthe eviction moratorium imposed by the CDC. By my last count, there are about1.5 million householdswho are in forbearance programs at the moment (i.e. not paying their mortgages), against somewhere in the ballpark of 50 million mortgages in the US. Foreclosure is a process, not an event, and the most common outcome is that people get behind on their payments, try to work with the bank for 6-12 months, and then eventually sell, collect their equity, and move somewhere cheaper. The problem in 2008 was that borrowers had negative equity on their mortgages, so it short-circuited this process. This isn't the case now–I don't see a systematic risk to the economy from foreclosures. Around 6-7 million houses in the US are bought and sold in a typical year, meaning in a vacuum, most people who are behind could sell over a 6-12 month period, and it would be a win-win for those struggling with the shortage of houses to buy and those who can't make payments on the ones they own. The Fed taper might complicate this. If mortgage rates go back up to the ~4 percent they've averaged over the last 10 years at the same time people are unloading houses they've been in forbearance on, prices are going to come down more.</p><p><blockquote><i>洛根-</i>止赎又开始了，最高法院最近推翻了疾病预防控制中心实施的驱逐禁令。根据我的最新统计，目前约有150万家庭处于延期计划中（即不支付抵押贷款），而美国的抵押贷款数量约为5000万。止赎是一个过程，而不是一个事件，最常见的结果是人们拖欠付款，试图与银行合作6-12个月，然后最终出售，收集他们的股权，并搬到更便宜的地方。2008年的问题是借款人的抵押贷款为负资产，因此它缩短了这一过程。现在的情况并非如此——我不认为取消抵押品赎回权会给经济带来系统性风险。在美国，一年大约有600-700万套房屋被买卖，这意味着在真空中，大多数落后的人可以在6-12个月的时间内出售，这对于那些为购买房屋短缺而苦苦挣扎的人和那些无法支付所拥有房屋的人来说是双赢的。美联储缩减规模可能会使情况变得复杂。如果抵押贷款利率回到过去10年的平均4%左右，同时人们正在抛售他们一直忍住的房子，价格将会进一步下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Evictions are messier–there are millions of people not paying rent and living off the extra money. When they have to start paying rent again somewhere else, their household budgets are going to dramatically shrink. Roughly 2-3 percent of American households are significantly behind on rent, so I would expect a lot of both formal and informal (cash for keys) evictions. This has to negatively affect consumer spending, and earnings estimates that ignore the unwind of stimulus are not properly accounting for it.</p><p><blockquote>驱逐更加混乱——有数百万人不付房租，靠额外的钱生活。当他们不得不在其他地方重新开始支付房租时，他们的家庭预算将会大幅缩水。大约2-3%的美国家庭严重拖欠租金，所以我预计会有很多正式和非正式的（现金换钥匙）驱逐。这必然会对消费者支出产生负面影响，而忽视刺激措施放松的盈利预测也没有正确考虑到这一点。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Sam–</i>The risk here is not so much on the real estate market, as Logan correctly summarized, but rather the knock-on effects on consumption.</p><p><blockquote><i>山姆-</i>正如洛根正确总结的那样，这里的风险与其说是房地产市场，不如说是对消费的连锁反应。</blockquote></p><p> The end of the federal eviction moratorium is a boon for apartment REITs which can resume collecting rent. However, that doesn’t mean investors should pile into residential REITs. have gone from deeply undervalued back to historically overvalued, as the below MAD Chart for Essex Property (ESS) shows. We previously suggested investors sell ESS.</p><p><blockquote>联邦驱逐禁令的结束对可以恢复收取租金的公寓房地产投资信托基金来说是一个福音。然而，这并不意味着投资者应该涌入住宅房地产投资信托基金。正如下面埃塞克斯地产(ESS)的MAD图表所示，已经从严重低估回到历史高估。我们之前建议投资者出售ESS。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc5c631a8b25f6a52735e699fbc69b29\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"293\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source:Dividend Freedom Tribe</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：股息自由部落</i></blockquote></p><p> Looking at the other residential REITs on the block, the same picture emerges. AvalonBay Communities (AVB) also is historically overvalued.</p><p><blockquote>看看该街区的其他住宅房地产投资信托基金，也会出现同样的情况。AvalonBay Communities(AVB)历来也被高估。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e17980a72bfba653b02553382a920419\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"315\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Dividend Freedom Tribe</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：股息自由部落</i></blockquote></p><p> None seem more overvalued relative to their historical normal range of prices than Camden Property Trust (CPT) which could easily come down by 1/3rdon a change in sentiment.</p><p><blockquote>相对于其历史正常价格范围，似乎没有比卡姆登房地产信托(CPT)更高估的了，如果情绪发生变化，卡姆登房地产信托(CPT)很容易下跌1/3。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/136a7707c3add17401e4dd4047278e14\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"303\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Dividend Freedom Tribe</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：股息自由部落</i></blockquote></p><p> I believe that this trade has passed. We bought ESS about a year ago, and have been selling it throughout the past few months.</p><p><blockquote>我相信这笔交易已经过去了。我们大约一年前购买了ESS，并在过去几个月里一直在出售它。</blockquote></p><p> Taking profits now in these industries makes sense: “buy the rumor/sell the news”.</p><p><blockquote>现在在这些行业获利了结是有道理的：“买入谣言/卖出消息”。</blockquote></p><p> If we’re looking ahead, we’re seeing one lever which will pressure consumption for a certain part of the population.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们展望未来，我们会看到一个杠杆将给某一部分人口的消费带来压力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Student Loan Forbearance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>学生贷款延期</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <i>Logan–</i>The Biden Administration extended the student loan pause until January 31, 2022. 1 in 6 adults in the US has student loans, with an average balance of ~$40,000. Most borrowers are under 30, a group that spends a higher percentage of their income than, say a 50-year old saving for retirement. Hit 1 in 6 American adults with an average$400 per month payment, paid with mostly post-tax dollars, and that's like stimulus in reverse. Anecdotally, almost no one I know who has student loans is currently paying them. The extra money they're getting from not paying loans is generally either being spent on consumption, invested in cryptocurrency, or in meme stocks like GameStop (GME). This is a decent threat to consumer spending, and there isn't an easy way out. The left wing of the Democratic Party in the US wants to cancel most or all student loans, but the main problem with this is that much of the debt is held by middle and upper-middle-class professionals, which would create a moral hazard as well as redistribute wealth from people lower on the socioeconomic ladder (for example, people who work in trades and pay their income taxes) to those of higher social class (for example, indebted white-collar college graduates). We're talking$1.7+ trillion in US student loansthat are generally not being serviced by those who owe it for this 21 month period. When those kick in again, consumer spending is not going to be higher than it is now. 2022 earnings estimates are mostly blind to this fact.</p><p><blockquote><i>洛根-</i>拜登政府将学生贷款暂停期限延长至2022年1月31日。美国六分之一的成年人拥有学生贷款，平均余额约为4万美元。大多数借款人年龄在30岁以下，这个群体的支出占其收入的比例高于50岁的退休储蓄。六分之一的美国成年人平均每月支付400美元，大部分是税后美元，这就像是反向刺激。有趣的是，我认识的有学生贷款的人目前几乎没有人在偿还贷款。他们因不偿还贷款而获得的额外资金通常要么用于消费、投资加密货币，要么投资于游戏驿站(GME)等模因股票。这对消费者支出构成了相当大的威胁，而且没有简单的解决办法。美国民主党左翼希望取消大部分或全部学生贷款，但这样做的主要问题是，大部分债务由中产阶级和中上阶层的专业人士持有，这将造成道德风险，并将财富从社会经济阶梯较低的人（例如，从事贸易并缴纳所得税的人）重新分配到较高的社会阶层（例如，负债累累的白领大学毕业生）。我们谈论的是1.7多万亿美元的美国学生贷款，这些贷款在这21个月内通常没有被那些欠债的人偿还。当这些因素再次发挥作用时，消费者支出不会比现在高。2022年的盈利预测大多对这一事实视而不见。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Sam–</i>When Logan and I initially discussed this article, this seemed to be the easiest form of stimulus for the government to keep giving. Since most of the loans are federal, a pause on the payments doesn’t explicitly hurt anyone enough to complain. And since the handouts are not direct, critics aren’t as vocal as they are with stimulus checks. The money which has been put into various investments, be it stock or crypto, will come out when they have to start servicing debt again. Whether this has enough of an impact to move markets is questionable, but the retail meme stocks could finally have their day of reckoning as a large portion of the population has to resume payments. The aftermath of removing the pause on debt servicing will be harsh for an important part of the population. At least you’ll still be able to watch a movie at AMC Theater (AMC).</p><p><blockquote><i>山姆-</i>当洛根和我最初讨论这篇文章时，这似乎是政府继续给予的最容易的刺激形式。由于大多数贷款都是联邦贷款，暂停付款不会对任何人造成足够的伤害来抱怨。由于施舍不是直接的，批评者不像对刺激支票那样直言不讳。投入各种投资的资金，无论是股票还是加密货币，将在他们不得不再次开始偿还债务时流出。这是否会产生足够的影响来推动市场值得怀疑，但随着很大一部分人必须恢复支付，零售模因股票最终可能会迎来清算日。取消暂停偿债的后果对很大一部分人口来说将是严酷的。至少您仍然可以在AMC剧院(AMC)观看电影。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Enhanced Unemployment &amp; Stimulus Checks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>加强失业和刺激检查</b></blockquote></p><p> Logan- Enhanced unemployment runs out on September 6, and there are 11 million people who won't be getting it after that week. This is $3.3 billion per week that the Federal government is dripping out to unemployed persons, which in turn is a lot less than it was 12 months ago. When it's gone, it's yet another piece of the puzzle that will rein in consumer spending. Stimulus checks were another source of income for many Americans over the last 18 months. A family of 4 making the median income would have seen a stimulus check in March of $5,600, in addition to the prior payments under the Trump Administration. These aren't going to be going out anymore, and for middle-income Americans, this means that they won't be able to spend as much money as they have before. The expanded child tax credit may make up for this and is probably a more efficient means of getting money out, but it expires also in its current form in December.</p><p><blockquote>洛根——增强失业将于9月6日到期，在那一周之后，有1100万人将无法领取失业救济金。联邦政府每周向失业者发放33亿美元，这比12个月前要少得多。当它消失时，它将成为抑制消费者支出的又一块拼图。在过去的18个月里，刺激支票是许多美国人的另一个收入来源。除了特朗普政府之前的付款外，一个收入中位数的4口之家在3月份还会看到5600美元的刺激支票。这些不会再出去了，对于中等收入的美国人来说，这意味着他们将无法像以前那样花那么多钱。扩大的儿童税收抵免可能会弥补这一点，并且可能是一种更有效的提款方式，但目前的形式也将于12月到期。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Sam–</i>Enhanced Unemployment is running out in a few days, we’re likely to see many of the 8 million Americans who are looking for a job finally find one amongthe 10 million job openings. As of the time of writing, job data is to be posted in the next few hours. Strong job numbers could kick off a Fed taper sooner than expected.</p><p><blockquote><i>山姆-</i>失业率的上升将在几天内消失，我们可能会看到800万正在找工作的美国人中的许多人最终在1000万个职位空缺中找到一个。截至撰写本文时，工作数据将在未来几个小时内发布。强劲的就业数据可能会比预期更早启动美联储缩减规模。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion: What Is Yet to Come?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论：接下来会发生什么？</b></blockquote></p><p> <i>Logan–</i>High profile earnings misses from the likes of Amazon (AMZN), Zoom Video (ZM), and Peloton (PTON) suggest that at least on a micro level, analysts assumed that good times would last forever for companies that benefitted from temporary changes resulting from the pandemic. Whether this is true on a macro level is a strong possibility, and depending on how the rest of earnings results come in for the rest of the year, it may end up becoming a reality. While it isn't set in stone that the market should necessarily go down significantly in price because of this, it's hard to deny that the risk-reward tradeoff for the market has deteriorated over the past 6-12 months. Now is a good time to dial back risk, if at all possible. A good defense, in both of our views, is to invest in high-quality companies rather than popular high-momentum stocks with middling fundamentals, and to take a long-term perspective.</p><p><blockquote><i>洛根-</i>亚马逊(AMZN)、Zoom Video(ZM)和Peloton(PTON)等公司的盈利大幅下滑表明，至少在微观层面上，分析师认为，对于那些受益于暂时变化的公司来说，美好时光将永远持续下去。大流行。从宏观层面来看，这是否属实的可能性很大，而且取决于今年剩余时间的盈利结果，它最终可能会成为现实。虽然市场价格并不一定会因此大幅下跌，但很难否认市场的风险回报权衡在过去6-12个月中已经恶化。如果可能的话，现在是降低风险的好时机。在我们看来，一个好的防御是投资于优质公司，而不是基本面中等的热门高动能股票，并从长远角度来看。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <i>Sam–</i>The inflation train has left the station. Powell believes it is transitory, I believe that it might be partially transitory, but the abundance of fiscal stimulus has kicked up a cycle of inflation which will be above 2% for quite some time. The Covid delta variant has softened some economic indicators like eating out in restaurants or travel, but as the country’s case count is already peaking, the economy is set to continue heating up.</p><p><blockquote><i>山姆-</i>充气列车已经离开车站了。鲍威尔认为这是暂时的，我认为这可能是部分暂时的，但大量的财政刺激已经启动了通胀周期，通胀将在相当长的一段时间内保持在2%以上。新冠疫情德尔塔变异毒株削弱了外出就餐或旅行等一些经济指标，但随着该国病例数已经达到峰值，经济将继续升温。</blockquote></p><p> This will lead to a taper. Higher rates, or even the expectation of higher rates, will lead to a change in discount rates, which is a fancy way to say future profits are worthless.</p><p><blockquote>这将导致锥度。更高的利率，甚至更高利率的预期，都会导致贴现率的变化，这是一种说未来利润一文不值的奇特方式。</blockquote></p><p> Investors want to take a hard look at their portfolios and ask whether they have positions which are overvalued beyond reason?</p><p><blockquote>投资者希望仔细审视他们的投资组合，并询问他们是否拥有被过度高估的头寸？</blockquote></p><p> No need to look at obscure parts of the market, this is playing out in the S&amp;P 500 (SPY).</p><p><blockquote>无需关注市场中不起眼的部分，这正在标普500（SPDR标普500指数ETF）上演。</blockquote></p><p> For instance, I cannot fathom how a stock like Intuit (INTU) currently trades at 16x sales? Even on its lofty usual measure of 8-9x sales, this is unusually high. Compare it to the stock's historical dividend, and the reading is off the wall.</p><p><blockquote>例如，我无法理解像Intuit(INTU)这样的股票目前的交易价格是销售额的16倍？即使按照通常8-9倍的销售额来衡量，这也是异常高的。将其与该股票的历史股息进行比较，读数是惊人的。</blockquote></p><p> Investors want to focus on companies with strong earnings power, large-scale operations, which are trading at relatively cheap valuations.</p><p><blockquote>投资者希望关注盈利能力强、经营规模大、估值相对便宜的公司。</blockquote></p><p> Among those that come to mind in the top 100 stocks are Amgen (AMGN) which currently yields over 3%.</p><p><blockquote>前100名股票中我想到的是安进(AMGN)，该公司目前的收益率超过3%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd53f68bc9f02f82e05458098625b0a7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"297\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Dividend Freedom Tribe</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：股息自由部落</i></blockquote></p><p> Philip Morris International (PM), Broadcom (AVGO), and Morgan Stanley (MS.PK) are also undervalued relative to their historical valuations.</p><p><blockquote>菲利普莫里斯国际（PM）、博通（AVGO）和摩根士丹利（MS.PK）相对于其历史估值也被低估。</blockquote></p><p> In such an environment, focus on quality is a must. Focus on value is a close second. We’re looking to buy the highest quality assets with growth prospects at a decent price. We’re very cautious that stimulus unwinding will hit consumption which will hit earning results. Big misses from overvalued names spells trouble. The responsible thing to do is to scale out of stocks when they become overvalued.</p><p><blockquote>在这样的环境下，注重质量是必须的。关注价值紧随其后。我们希望以合理的价格购买具有增长前景的最优质资产。我们非常谨慎地认为，刺激措施的取消将打击消费，从而影响盈利结果。估值过高的名字的重大失误会带来麻烦。负责任的做法是在股票估值过高时退出。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What Will Happen When Trillions In Stimulus Run Out In 2022?<blockquote>2022年数万亿刺激用完会发生什么？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat Will Happen When Trillions In Stimulus Run Out In 2022?<blockquote>2022年数万亿刺激用完会发生什么？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-03 11:59</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The US economy and stock market have benefitted from an unprecedented amount of stimulus in 2021.</li>  <li>With expanded unemployment set to end, student loan &amp; mortgage forbearance to end, and a possible corporate tax rate hike on the horizon, it's possible 2022 earnings estimates for stocks are simply too high.</li>  <li>In light of this, the broad stock market faces an unattractive risk-reward proposition.</li>  <li>I break down the possibilities and game plan with expert value/dividend investor Sam Kovacs.</li> </ul> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>2021年，美国经济和股市受益于前所未有的刺激措施。</li><li>随着失业扩大即将结束，学生贷款和抵押贷款忍耐即将结束，以及企业税率可能上调，2022年股市盈利预期可能太高了。</li><li>有鉴于此，整个股市面临着一个没有吸引力的风险回报命题。</li><li>我与专家价值/股息投资者萨姆·科瓦奇一起分析了可能性和游戏计划。</li></ul><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> <i>Logan–</i>The United States government has turned to an unprecedented amount of fiscal and monetary stimulus to help the economy through the COVID-19 pandemic. Notable examples include multiple rounds of stimulus checks, the student loan pause, mortgage forbearance/eviction moratorium, PPP, and enhanced unemployment benefits. So far, this effort seems to have been successful, although critics point out that it has resulted in significant increases in inflation. However, the political and economic reality is that the US can't run $3 trillion deficits forever, at least without everyone implicitly paying for it via higher consumer prices compared to their earnings.</p><p><blockquote><i>洛根-</i>美国政府已经转向前所未有的财政和货币刺激措施，以帮助经济度过新冠肺炎疫情。值得注意的例子包括多轮刺激检查、学生贷款暂停、抵押贷款延期/驱逐暂停、PPP和提高失业福利。到目前为止，这一努力似乎是成功的，尽管批评者指出，这导致了通货膨胀的显著上升。然而，政治和经济现实是，美国不可能永远保持3万亿美元的赤字，至少在每个人都没有通过高于其收入的消费者价格来隐性支付赤字的情况下。</blockquote></p><p> The weight of theevidence suggeststhat prices are rising faster than wages. In turn, the government has stepped in to fill this gap with stimulus payments, but the trillion-dollar question is what happens when the economy has to run on its own productivity–rather than on temporary transfer payments. For 2021, thanks to pent-up demand and stimulus, S&amp;P 500 components are expected to smash the record for the highest amount ever earned in a year (somewhere between $200 and $205 per share for 2021, vs. the previous record of $163 in 2019). Wall Street analysts additionally expect the S&amp;P 500 to earn~$215 per share in 2022, which would be yet another record. When you pull numbers forproductivity and economic output, the picture isn't as great, which helps explain why there are so many shortages of goods and services right now. If you feel that the change in nominal economic output is more indicative of what corporations can earn over the medium term (taking away the impact of consumers spending temporary transfer payments), you get an earnings number for the S&amp;P 500 closer to $180, which is about 15 percent lower than Wall Street is currently expecting.</p><p><blockquote>大量证据表明，物价上涨速度快于工资上涨速度。反过来，政府已经介入，通过刺激支付来填补这一缺口，但万亿美元的问题是，当经济不得不依靠自身生产力而不是临时转移支付来运行时会发生什么。2021年，由于被压抑的需求和刺激措施，标普500组件预计将打破一年内最高收入记录（2021年每股收入在200美元至205美元之间，而2019年的纪录为163美元）。此外，华尔街分析师预计标普500 2022年每股收益约为215美元，这将再创历史新高。当你计算生产率和经济产出的数字时，情况就不那么好了，这有助于解释为什么现在商品和服务如此短缺。如果你认为名义经济产出的变化更能反映企业在中期内的收入（剔除消费者支出临时转移支付的影响），你会得到标普500的收入数字接近180美元，这比华尔街目前的预期低约15%。</blockquote></p><p> Putting further pressure on earnings is the potential corporate tax hike from 21 percent to 25 percent, which will decrease S&amp;P 500 earnings by 5 percent, all else being equal. Political betting markets show that this has a roughly50/50 chance of becoming lawat the moment. With many investors making easy money piling into low-conviction, high momentum names, the consequences of unwinding stimulus could be a shock to their portfolio balances. Helping me make sense of the stimulus unwind is fellow<i>Seeking Alpha</i>authorSam Kovacs.Although living halfway across the world from me here in suburban Texas, Sam and I think eerily alike about the markets, gravitating to high-quality stocks with solid earnings and dividends.</p><p><blockquote>给盈利带来进一步压力的是潜在的公司税从21%提高到25%，在其他条件相同的情况下，这将使标普500的盈利减少5%。政治博彩市场显示，这有大约50/50的机会成为lawat时刻。随着许多轻松赚钱的投资者涌入低信心、高势头的股票，取消刺激措施的后果可能会对他们的投资组合平衡造成冲击。帮助我理解刺激放松是同伴<i>寻求阿尔法</i>作者萨姆·科瓦奇。尽管住在德克萨斯州郊区，与我相隔半个地球，但我和萨姆对市场的看法却出奇地相似，都被具有稳定收益和股息的优质股票所吸引。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Sam–</i>Within the first couple of months of the Fed’s reaction to the pandemic, I was concerned that they would be placing themselves between a rock and a hard place. I would not have wanted to be in Powell’s shoes, but then again there aren’t many government jobs I’d consider taking. Striking a balance between pulling stimulus too early and risking runaway inflation is no easy task. The government has looked to prior crashes and decided that risking inflation was the way to go.</p><p><blockquote><i>山姆-</i>在美联储对疫情做出反应的头几个月里，我担心他们会进退两难。我不想站在鲍威尔的立场上，但话说回来，我会考虑接受的政府工作并不多。在过早取消刺激措施和通胀失控风险之间取得平衡绝非易事。政府回顾了之前的崩盘，并决定冒通胀风险是正确的选择。</blockquote></p><p> Keep telling the people that it is “transitory” and surely it will be. But anyone who has taken Econ 101 knows that inflation feeds on itself. At first, companies are reactionary, but then they become proactive in pricing measures. Here are a few snippets.</p><p><blockquote>不断告诉人们这是“暂时的”，而且肯定会是。但是任何学过经济学101的人都知道，通货膨胀是自我驱动的。起初，公司是反动的，但后来它们在定价措施上变得积极主动。这里有几个片段。</blockquote></p><p> From Hormel's (HRL) latestcall:</p><p><blockquote>来自荷美尔(HRL)的最新电话：</blockquote></p><p> <i>We have taken numerous pricing actions across the portfolio to protect profitability. The actions will take place early in the third quarter with additional pricing actions likely.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>我们在整个投资组合中采取了大量定价行动来保护盈利能力。这些行动将在第三季度初进行，并可能采取额外的定价行动。</i></blockquote></p><p> From Conagra's (CAG) latestcall:</p><p><blockquote>来自康尼格拉(CAG)的最新电话：</blockquote></p><p> <i>And the short answer is yes. In fact, we began implementing pricing actions on some of our products in the quarter related to the initial inflation we experienced. The very early read on the data from those actions is that our elasticities look good so far. And we have more pricing coming.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>简短的回答是肯定的。事实上，我们在本季度开始对一些产品实施与我们经历的最初通货膨胀相关的定价行动。对这些行动数据的早期解读是，到目前为止，我们的弹性看起来不错。我们还将推出更多定价。</i></blockquote></p><p> There will be no shortage of inflation in food in upcoming quarters. Oil price still has a couple of quarters of weak comparables which continue to contribute to higher headline inflation rates.</p><p><blockquote>未来几个季度不会出现食品通胀。油价仍有几个季度的疲软可比数据，这继续导致整体通胀率上升。</blockquote></p><p> Food &amp; transportation, along with housing are the major costs of US households. For1/6thof adults, you can throw in student loans as well. US consumers have been able to absorb the inflation on the back of various stimulus efforts.</p><p><blockquote>食品、交通以及住房是美国家庭的主要开支。对于1/6的成年人，你也可以提供学生贷款。在各种刺激措施的支持下，美国消费者已经能够吸收通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But the stimulus can’t last forever. Part of it is being extended as Delta is slowing (not killing) the recovery. What happens when the different forms of stimulus fade? That’s what we’re going to look at in the rest of the article.</p><p><blockquote>但刺激不可能永远持续下去。由于达美航空正在减缓（而不是扼杀）复苏，其中一部分正在延长。当不同形式的刺激消退时会发生什么？这就是我们将在本文的其余部分中讨论的内容。</blockquote></p><p> The Eviction/Foreclosure Moratorium</p><p><blockquote>暂停驱逐/取消抵押品赎回权</blockquote></p><p> <i>Logan–</i>Foreclosures have started again, and the Supreme Court recentlystruck downthe eviction moratorium imposed by the CDC. By my last count, there are about1.5 million householdswho are in forbearance programs at the moment (i.e. not paying their mortgages), against somewhere in the ballpark of 50 million mortgages in the US. Foreclosure is a process, not an event, and the most common outcome is that people get behind on their payments, try to work with the bank for 6-12 months, and then eventually sell, collect their equity, and move somewhere cheaper. The problem in 2008 was that borrowers had negative equity on their mortgages, so it short-circuited this process. This isn't the case now–I don't see a systematic risk to the economy from foreclosures. Around 6-7 million houses in the US are bought and sold in a typical year, meaning in a vacuum, most people who are behind could sell over a 6-12 month period, and it would be a win-win for those struggling with the shortage of houses to buy and those who can't make payments on the ones they own. The Fed taper might complicate this. If mortgage rates go back up to the ~4 percent they've averaged over the last 10 years at the same time people are unloading houses they've been in forbearance on, prices are going to come down more.</p><p><blockquote><i>洛根-</i>止赎又开始了，最高法院最近推翻了疾病预防控制中心实施的驱逐禁令。根据我的最新统计，目前约有150万家庭处于延期计划中（即不支付抵押贷款），而美国的抵押贷款数量约为5000万。止赎是一个过程，而不是一个事件，最常见的结果是人们拖欠付款，试图与银行合作6-12个月，然后最终出售，收集他们的股权，并搬到更便宜的地方。2008年的问题是借款人的抵押贷款为负资产，因此它缩短了这一过程。现在的情况并非如此——我不认为取消抵押品赎回权会给经济带来系统性风险。在美国，一年大约有600-700万套房屋被买卖，这意味着在真空中，大多数落后的人可以在6-12个月的时间内出售，这对于那些为购买房屋短缺而苦苦挣扎的人和那些无法支付所拥有房屋的人来说是双赢的。美联储缩减规模可能会使情况变得复杂。如果抵押贷款利率回到过去10年的平均4%左右，同时人们正在抛售他们一直忍住的房子，价格将会进一步下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Evictions are messier–there are millions of people not paying rent and living off the extra money. When they have to start paying rent again somewhere else, their household budgets are going to dramatically shrink. Roughly 2-3 percent of American households are significantly behind on rent, so I would expect a lot of both formal and informal (cash for keys) evictions. This has to negatively affect consumer spending, and earnings estimates that ignore the unwind of stimulus are not properly accounting for it.</p><p><blockquote>驱逐更加混乱——有数百万人不付房租，靠额外的钱生活。当他们不得不在其他地方重新开始支付房租时，他们的家庭预算将会大幅缩水。大约2-3%的美国家庭严重拖欠租金，所以我预计会有很多正式和非正式的（现金换钥匙）驱逐。这必然会对消费者支出产生负面影响，而忽视刺激措施放松的盈利预测也没有正确考虑到这一点。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Sam–</i>The risk here is not so much on the real estate market, as Logan correctly summarized, but rather the knock-on effects on consumption.</p><p><blockquote><i>山姆-</i>正如洛根正确总结的那样，这里的风险与其说是房地产市场，不如说是对消费的连锁反应。</blockquote></p><p> The end of the federal eviction moratorium is a boon for apartment REITs which can resume collecting rent. However, that doesn’t mean investors should pile into residential REITs. have gone from deeply undervalued back to historically overvalued, as the below MAD Chart for Essex Property (ESS) shows. We previously suggested investors sell ESS.</p><p><blockquote>联邦驱逐禁令的结束对可以恢复收取租金的公寓房地产投资信托基金来说是一个福音。然而，这并不意味着投资者应该涌入住宅房地产投资信托基金。正如下面埃塞克斯地产(ESS)的MAD图表所示，已经从严重低估回到历史高估。我们之前建议投资者出售ESS。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc5c631a8b25f6a52735e699fbc69b29\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"293\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source:Dividend Freedom Tribe</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：股息自由部落</i></blockquote></p><p> Looking at the other residential REITs on the block, the same picture emerges. AvalonBay Communities (AVB) also is historically overvalued.</p><p><blockquote>看看该街区的其他住宅房地产投资信托基金，也会出现同样的情况。AvalonBay Communities(AVB)历来也被高估。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e17980a72bfba653b02553382a920419\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"315\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Dividend Freedom Tribe</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：股息自由部落</i></blockquote></p><p> None seem more overvalued relative to their historical normal range of prices than Camden Property Trust (CPT) which could easily come down by 1/3rdon a change in sentiment.</p><p><blockquote>相对于其历史正常价格范围，似乎没有比卡姆登房地产信托(CPT)更高估的了，如果情绪发生变化，卡姆登房地产信托(CPT)很容易下跌1/3。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/136a7707c3add17401e4dd4047278e14\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"303\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Dividend Freedom Tribe</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：股息自由部落</i></blockquote></p><p> I believe that this trade has passed. We bought ESS about a year ago, and have been selling it throughout the past few months.</p><p><blockquote>我相信这笔交易已经过去了。我们大约一年前购买了ESS，并在过去几个月里一直在出售它。</blockquote></p><p> Taking profits now in these industries makes sense: “buy the rumor/sell the news”.</p><p><blockquote>现在在这些行业获利了结是有道理的：“买入谣言/卖出消息”。</blockquote></p><p> If we’re looking ahead, we’re seeing one lever which will pressure consumption for a certain part of the population.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们展望未来，我们会看到一个杠杆将给某一部分人口的消费带来压力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Student Loan Forbearance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>学生贷款延期</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <i>Logan–</i>The Biden Administration extended the student loan pause until January 31, 2022. 1 in 6 adults in the US has student loans, with an average balance of ~$40,000. Most borrowers are under 30, a group that spends a higher percentage of their income than, say a 50-year old saving for retirement. Hit 1 in 6 American adults with an average$400 per month payment, paid with mostly post-tax dollars, and that's like stimulus in reverse. Anecdotally, almost no one I know who has student loans is currently paying them. The extra money they're getting from not paying loans is generally either being spent on consumption, invested in cryptocurrency, or in meme stocks like GameStop (GME). This is a decent threat to consumer spending, and there isn't an easy way out. The left wing of the Democratic Party in the US wants to cancel most or all student loans, but the main problem with this is that much of the debt is held by middle and upper-middle-class professionals, which would create a moral hazard as well as redistribute wealth from people lower on the socioeconomic ladder (for example, people who work in trades and pay their income taxes) to those of higher social class (for example, indebted white-collar college graduates). We're talking$1.7+ trillion in US student loansthat are generally not being serviced by those who owe it for this 21 month period. When those kick in again, consumer spending is not going to be higher than it is now. 2022 earnings estimates are mostly blind to this fact.</p><p><blockquote><i>洛根-</i>拜登政府将学生贷款暂停期限延长至2022年1月31日。美国六分之一的成年人拥有学生贷款，平均余额约为4万美元。大多数借款人年龄在30岁以下，这个群体的支出占其收入的比例高于50岁的退休储蓄。六分之一的美国成年人平均每月支付400美元，大部分是税后美元，这就像是反向刺激。有趣的是，我认识的有学生贷款的人目前几乎没有人在偿还贷款。他们因不偿还贷款而获得的额外资金通常要么用于消费、投资加密货币，要么投资于游戏驿站(GME)等模因股票。这对消费者支出构成了相当大的威胁，而且没有简单的解决办法。美国民主党左翼希望取消大部分或全部学生贷款，但这样做的主要问题是，大部分债务由中产阶级和中上阶层的专业人士持有，这将造成道德风险，并将财富从社会经济阶梯较低的人（例如，从事贸易并缴纳所得税的人）重新分配到较高的社会阶层（例如，负债累累的白领大学毕业生）。我们谈论的是1.7多万亿美元的美国学生贷款，这些贷款在这21个月内通常没有被那些欠债的人偿还。当这些因素再次发挥作用时，消费者支出不会比现在高。2022年的盈利预测大多对这一事实视而不见。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Sam–</i>When Logan and I initially discussed this article, this seemed to be the easiest form of stimulus for the government to keep giving. Since most of the loans are federal, a pause on the payments doesn’t explicitly hurt anyone enough to complain. And since the handouts are not direct, critics aren’t as vocal as they are with stimulus checks. The money which has been put into various investments, be it stock or crypto, will come out when they have to start servicing debt again. Whether this has enough of an impact to move markets is questionable, but the retail meme stocks could finally have their day of reckoning as a large portion of the population has to resume payments. The aftermath of removing the pause on debt servicing will be harsh for an important part of the population. At least you’ll still be able to watch a movie at AMC Theater (AMC).</p><p><blockquote><i>山姆-</i>当洛根和我最初讨论这篇文章时，这似乎是政府继续给予的最容易的刺激形式。由于大多数贷款都是联邦贷款，暂停付款不会对任何人造成足够的伤害来抱怨。由于施舍不是直接的，批评者不像对刺激支票那样直言不讳。投入各种投资的资金，无论是股票还是加密货币，将在他们不得不再次开始偿还债务时流出。这是否会产生足够的影响来推动市场值得怀疑，但随着很大一部分人必须恢复支付，零售模因股票最终可能会迎来清算日。取消暂停偿债的后果对很大一部分人口来说将是严酷的。至少您仍然可以在AMC剧院(AMC)观看电影。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Enhanced Unemployment &amp; Stimulus Checks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>加强失业和刺激检查</b></blockquote></p><p> Logan- Enhanced unemployment runs out on September 6, and there are 11 million people who won't be getting it after that week. This is $3.3 billion per week that the Federal government is dripping out to unemployed persons, which in turn is a lot less than it was 12 months ago. When it's gone, it's yet another piece of the puzzle that will rein in consumer spending. Stimulus checks were another source of income for many Americans over the last 18 months. A family of 4 making the median income would have seen a stimulus check in March of $5,600, in addition to the prior payments under the Trump Administration. These aren't going to be going out anymore, and for middle-income Americans, this means that they won't be able to spend as much money as they have before. The expanded child tax credit may make up for this and is probably a more efficient means of getting money out, but it expires also in its current form in December.</p><p><blockquote>洛根——增强失业将于9月6日到期，在那一周之后，有1100万人将无法领取失业救济金。联邦政府每周向失业者发放33亿美元，这比12个月前要少得多。当它消失时，它将成为抑制消费者支出的又一块拼图。在过去的18个月里，刺激支票是许多美国人的另一个收入来源。除了特朗普政府之前的付款外，一个收入中位数的4口之家在3月份还会看到5600美元的刺激支票。这些不会再出去了，对于中等收入的美国人来说，这意味着他们将无法像以前那样花那么多钱。扩大的儿童税收抵免可能会弥补这一点，并且可能是一种更有效的提款方式，但目前的形式也将于12月到期。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Sam–</i>Enhanced Unemployment is running out in a few days, we’re likely to see many of the 8 million Americans who are looking for a job finally find one amongthe 10 million job openings. As of the time of writing, job data is to be posted in the next few hours. Strong job numbers could kick off a Fed taper sooner than expected.</p><p><blockquote><i>山姆-</i>失业率的上升将在几天内消失，我们可能会看到800万正在找工作的美国人中的许多人最终在1000万个职位空缺中找到一个。截至撰写本文时，工作数据将在未来几个小时内发布。强劲的就业数据可能会比预期更早启动美联储缩减规模。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion: What Is Yet to Come?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论：接下来会发生什么？</b></blockquote></p><p> <i>Logan–</i>High profile earnings misses from the likes of Amazon (AMZN), Zoom Video (ZM), and Peloton (PTON) suggest that at least on a micro level, analysts assumed that good times would last forever for companies that benefitted from temporary changes resulting from the pandemic. Whether this is true on a macro level is a strong possibility, and depending on how the rest of earnings results come in for the rest of the year, it may end up becoming a reality. While it isn't set in stone that the market should necessarily go down significantly in price because of this, it's hard to deny that the risk-reward tradeoff for the market has deteriorated over the past 6-12 months. Now is a good time to dial back risk, if at all possible. A good defense, in both of our views, is to invest in high-quality companies rather than popular high-momentum stocks with middling fundamentals, and to take a long-term perspective.</p><p><blockquote><i>洛根-</i>亚马逊(AMZN)、Zoom Video(ZM)和Peloton(PTON)等公司的盈利大幅下滑表明，至少在微观层面上，分析师认为，对于那些受益于暂时变化的公司来说，美好时光将永远持续下去。大流行。从宏观层面来看，这是否属实的可能性很大，而且取决于今年剩余时间的盈利结果，它最终可能会成为现实。虽然市场价格并不一定会因此大幅下跌，但很难否认市场的风险回报权衡在过去6-12个月中已经恶化。如果可能的话，现在是降低风险的好时机。在我们看来，一个好的防御是投资于优质公司，而不是基本面中等的热门高动能股票，并从长远角度来看。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <i>Sam–</i>The inflation train has left the station. Powell believes it is transitory, I believe that it might be partially transitory, but the abundance of fiscal stimulus has kicked up a cycle of inflation which will be above 2% for quite some time. The Covid delta variant has softened some economic indicators like eating out in restaurants or travel, but as the country’s case count is already peaking, the economy is set to continue heating up.</p><p><blockquote><i>山姆-</i>充气列车已经离开车站了。鲍威尔认为这是暂时的，我认为这可能是部分暂时的，但大量的财政刺激已经启动了通胀周期，通胀将在相当长的一段时间内保持在2%以上。新冠疫情德尔塔变异毒株削弱了外出就餐或旅行等一些经济指标，但随着该国病例数已经达到峰值，经济将继续升温。</blockquote></p><p> This will lead to a taper. Higher rates, or even the expectation of higher rates, will lead to a change in discount rates, which is a fancy way to say future profits are worthless.</p><p><blockquote>这将导致锥度。更高的利率，甚至更高利率的预期，都会导致贴现率的变化，这是一种说未来利润一文不值的奇特方式。</blockquote></p><p> Investors want to take a hard look at their portfolios and ask whether they have positions which are overvalued beyond reason?</p><p><blockquote>投资者希望仔细审视他们的投资组合，并询问他们是否拥有被过度高估的头寸？</blockquote></p><p> No need to look at obscure parts of the market, this is playing out in the S&amp;P 500 (SPY).</p><p><blockquote>无需关注市场中不起眼的部分，这正在标普500（SPDR标普500指数ETF）上演。</blockquote></p><p> For instance, I cannot fathom how a stock like Intuit (INTU) currently trades at 16x sales? Even on its lofty usual measure of 8-9x sales, this is unusually high. Compare it to the stock's historical dividend, and the reading is off the wall.</p><p><blockquote>例如，我无法理解像Intuit(INTU)这样的股票目前的交易价格是销售额的16倍？即使按照通常8-9倍的销售额来衡量，这也是异常高的。将其与该股票的历史股息进行比较，读数是惊人的。</blockquote></p><p> Investors want to focus on companies with strong earnings power, large-scale operations, which are trading at relatively cheap valuations.</p><p><blockquote>投资者希望关注盈利能力强、经营规模大、估值相对便宜的公司。</blockquote></p><p> Among those that come to mind in the top 100 stocks are Amgen (AMGN) which currently yields over 3%.</p><p><blockquote>前100名股票中我想到的是安进(AMGN)，该公司目前的收益率超过3%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd53f68bc9f02f82e05458098625b0a7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"297\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Dividend Freedom Tribe</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：股息自由部落</i></blockquote></p><p> Philip Morris International (PM), Broadcom (AVGO), and Morgan Stanley (MS.PK) are also undervalued relative to their historical valuations.</p><p><blockquote>菲利普莫里斯国际（PM）、博通（AVGO）和摩根士丹利（MS.PK）相对于其历史估值也被低估。</blockquote></p><p> In such an environment, focus on quality is a must. Focus on value is a close second. We’re looking to buy the highest quality assets with growth prospects at a decent price. We’re very cautious that stimulus unwinding will hit consumption which will hit earning results. Big misses from overvalued names spells trouble. The responsible thing to do is to scale out of stocks when they become overvalued.</p><p><blockquote>在这样的环境下，注重质量是必须的。关注价值紧随其后。我们希望以合理的价格购买具有增长前景的最优质资产。我们非常谨慎地认为，刺激措施的取消将打击消费，从而影响盈利结果。估值过高的名字的重大失误会带来麻烦。负责任的做法是在股票估值过高时退出。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453272-what-will-happen-when-trillions-in-stimulus-runs-out-in-2022\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453272-what-will-happen-when-trillions-in-stimulus-runs-out-in-2022","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115112299","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe US economy and stock market have benefitted from an unprecedented amount of stimulus in 2021.\nWith expanded unemployment set to end, student loan & mortgage forbearance to end, and a possible corporate tax rate hike on the horizon, it's possible 2022 earnings estimates for stocks are simply too high.\nIn light of this, the broad stock market faces an unattractive risk-reward proposition.\nI break down the possibilities and game plan with expert value/dividend investor Sam Kovacs.\n\nIntroduction\nLogan–The United States government has turned to an unprecedented amount of fiscal and monetary stimulus to help the economy through the COVID-19 pandemic. Notable examples include multiple rounds of stimulus checks, the student loan pause, mortgage forbearance/eviction moratorium, PPP, and enhanced unemployment benefits. So far, this effort seems to have been successful, although critics point out that it has resulted in significant increases in inflation. However, the political and economic reality is that the US can't run $3 trillion deficits forever, at least without everyone implicitly paying for it via higher consumer prices compared to their earnings.\nThe weight of theevidence suggeststhat prices are rising faster than wages. In turn, the government has stepped in to fill this gap with stimulus payments, but the trillion-dollar question is what happens when the economy has to run on its own productivity–rather than on temporary transfer payments. For 2021, thanks to pent-up demand and stimulus, S&P 500 components are expected to smash the record for the highest amount ever earned in a year (somewhere between $200 and $205 per share for 2021, vs. the previous record of $163 in 2019). Wall Street analysts additionally expect the S&P 500 to earn~$215 per share in 2022, which would be yet another record. When you pull numbers forproductivity and economic output, the picture isn't as great, which helps explain why there are so many shortages of goods and services right now. If you feel that the change in nominal economic output is more indicative of what corporations can earn over the medium term (taking away the impact of consumers spending temporary transfer payments), you get an earnings number for the S&P 500 closer to $180, which is about 15 percent lower than Wall Street is currently expecting.\nPutting further pressure on earnings is the potential corporate tax hike from 21 percent to 25 percent, which will decrease S&P 500 earnings by 5 percent, all else being equal. Political betting markets show that this has a roughly50/50 chance of becoming lawat the moment. With many investors making easy money piling into low-conviction, high momentum names, the consequences of unwinding stimulus could be a shock to their portfolio balances. Helping me make sense of the stimulus unwind is fellowSeeking AlphaauthorSam Kovacs.Although living halfway across the world from me here in suburban Texas, Sam and I think eerily alike about the markets, gravitating to high-quality stocks with solid earnings and dividends.\nSam–Within the first couple of months of the Fed’s reaction to the pandemic, I was concerned that they would be placing themselves between a rock and a hard place. I would not have wanted to be in Powell’s shoes, but then again there aren’t many government jobs I’d consider taking. Striking a balance between pulling stimulus too early and risking runaway inflation is no easy task. The government has looked to prior crashes and decided that risking inflation was the way to go.\nKeep telling the people that it is “transitory” and surely it will be. But anyone who has taken Econ 101 knows that inflation feeds on itself. At first, companies are reactionary, but then they become proactive in pricing measures. Here are a few snippets.\nFrom Hormel's (HRL) latestcall:\nWe have taken numerous pricing actions across the portfolio to protect profitability. The actions will take place early in the third quarter with additional pricing actions likely.\nFrom Conagra's (CAG) latestcall:\nAnd the short answer is yes. In fact, we began implementing pricing actions on some of our products in the quarter related to the initial inflation we experienced. The very early read on the data from those actions is that our elasticities look good so far. And we have more pricing coming.\nThere will be no shortage of inflation in food in upcoming quarters. Oil price still has a couple of quarters of weak comparables which continue to contribute to higher headline inflation rates.\nFood & transportation, along with housing are the major costs of US households. For1/6thof adults, you can throw in student loans as well. US consumers have been able to absorb the inflation on the back of various stimulus efforts.\nBut the stimulus can’t last forever. Part of it is being extended as Delta is slowing (not killing) the recovery. What happens when the different forms of stimulus fade? That’s what we’re going to look at in the rest of the article.\nThe Eviction/Foreclosure Moratorium\nLogan–Foreclosures have started again, and the Supreme Court recentlystruck downthe eviction moratorium imposed by the CDC. By my last count, there are about1.5 million householdswho are in forbearance programs at the moment (i.e. not paying their mortgages), against somewhere in the ballpark of 50 million mortgages in the US. Foreclosure is a process, not an event, and the most common outcome is that people get behind on their payments, try to work with the bank for 6-12 months, and then eventually sell, collect their equity, and move somewhere cheaper. The problem in 2008 was that borrowers had negative equity on their mortgages, so it short-circuited this process. This isn't the case now–I don't see a systematic risk to the economy from foreclosures. Around 6-7 million houses in the US are bought and sold in a typical year, meaning in a vacuum, most people who are behind could sell over a 6-12 month period, and it would be a win-win for those struggling with the shortage of houses to buy and those who can't make payments on the ones they own. The Fed taper might complicate this. If mortgage rates go back up to the ~4 percent they've averaged over the last 10 years at the same time people are unloading houses they've been in forbearance on, prices are going to come down more.\nEvictions are messier–there are millions of people not paying rent and living off the extra money. When they have to start paying rent again somewhere else, their household budgets are going to dramatically shrink. Roughly 2-3 percent of American households are significantly behind on rent, so I would expect a lot of both formal and informal (cash for keys) evictions. This has to negatively affect consumer spending, and earnings estimates that ignore the unwind of stimulus are not properly accounting for it.\nSam–The risk here is not so much on the real estate market, as Logan correctly summarized, but rather the knock-on effects on consumption.\nThe end of the federal eviction moratorium is a boon for apartment REITs which can resume collecting rent. However, that doesn’t mean investors should pile into residential REITs. have gone from deeply undervalued back to historically overvalued, as the below MAD Chart for Essex Property (ESS) shows. We previously suggested investors sell ESS.\n\nSource:Dividend Freedom Tribe\nLooking at the other residential REITs on the block, the same picture emerges. AvalonBay Communities (AVB) also is historically overvalued.\n\nSource: Dividend Freedom Tribe\nNone seem more overvalued relative to their historical normal range of prices than Camden Property Trust (CPT) which could easily come down by 1/3rdon a change in sentiment.\n\nSource: Dividend Freedom Tribe\nI believe that this trade has passed. We bought ESS about a year ago, and have been selling it throughout the past few months.\nTaking profits now in these industries makes sense: “buy the rumor/sell the news”.\nIf we’re looking ahead, we’re seeing one lever which will pressure consumption for a certain part of the population.\nStudent Loan Forbearance\nLogan–The Biden Administration extended the student loan pause until January 31, 2022. 1 in 6 adults in the US has student loans, with an average balance of ~$40,000. Most borrowers are under 30, a group that spends a higher percentage of their income than, say a 50-year old saving for retirement. Hit 1 in 6 American adults with an average$400 per month payment, paid with mostly post-tax dollars, and that's like stimulus in reverse. Anecdotally, almost no one I know who has student loans is currently paying them. The extra money they're getting from not paying loans is generally either being spent on consumption, invested in cryptocurrency, or in meme stocks like GameStop (GME). This is a decent threat to consumer spending, and there isn't an easy way out. The left wing of the Democratic Party in the US wants to cancel most or all student loans, but the main problem with this is that much of the debt is held by middle and upper-middle-class professionals, which would create a moral hazard as well as redistribute wealth from people lower on the socioeconomic ladder (for example, people who work in trades and pay their income taxes) to those of higher social class (for example, indebted white-collar college graduates). We're talking$1.7+ trillion in US student loansthat are generally not being serviced by those who owe it for this 21 month period. When those kick in again, consumer spending is not going to be higher than it is now. 2022 earnings estimates are mostly blind to this fact.\nSam–When Logan and I initially discussed this article, this seemed to be the easiest form of stimulus for the government to keep giving. Since most of the loans are federal, a pause on the payments doesn’t explicitly hurt anyone enough to complain. And since the handouts are not direct, critics aren’t as vocal as they are with stimulus checks. The money which has been put into various investments, be it stock or crypto, will come out when they have to start servicing debt again. Whether this has enough of an impact to move markets is questionable, but the retail meme stocks could finally have their day of reckoning as a large portion of the population has to resume payments. The aftermath of removing the pause on debt servicing will be harsh for an important part of the population. At least you’ll still be able to watch a movie at AMC Theater (AMC).\nEnhanced Unemployment & Stimulus Checks\nLogan- Enhanced unemployment runs out on September 6, and there are 11 million people who won't be getting it after that week. This is $3.3 billion per week that the Federal government is dripping out to unemployed persons, which in turn is a lot less than it was 12 months ago. When it's gone, it's yet another piece of the puzzle that will rein in consumer spending. Stimulus checks were another source of income for many Americans over the last 18 months. A family of 4 making the median income would have seen a stimulus check in March of $5,600, in addition to the prior payments under the Trump Administration. These aren't going to be going out anymore, and for middle-income Americans, this means that they won't be able to spend as much money as they have before. The expanded child tax credit may make up for this and is probably a more efficient means of getting money out, but it expires also in its current form in December.\nSam–Enhanced Unemployment is running out in a few days, we’re likely to see many of the 8 million Americans who are looking for a job finally find one amongthe 10 million job openings. As of the time of writing, job data is to be posted in the next few hours. Strong job numbers could kick off a Fed taper sooner than expected.\nConclusion: What Is Yet to Come?\nLogan–High profile earnings misses from the likes of Amazon (AMZN), Zoom Video (ZM), and Peloton (PTON) suggest that at least on a micro level, analysts assumed that good times would last forever for companies that benefitted from temporary changes resulting from the pandemic. Whether this is true on a macro level is a strong possibility, and depending on how the rest of earnings results come in for the rest of the year, it may end up becoming a reality. While it isn't set in stone that the market should necessarily go down significantly in price because of this, it's hard to deny that the risk-reward tradeoff for the market has deteriorated over the past 6-12 months. Now is a good time to dial back risk, if at all possible. A good defense, in both of our views, is to invest in high-quality companies rather than popular high-momentum stocks with middling fundamentals, and to take a long-term perspective.\nSam–The inflation train has left the station. Powell believes it is transitory, I believe that it might be partially transitory, but the abundance of fiscal stimulus has kicked up a cycle of inflation which will be above 2% for quite some time. The Covid delta variant has softened some economic indicators like eating out in restaurants or travel, but as the country’s case count is already peaking, the economy is set to continue heating up.\nThis will lead to a taper. Higher rates, or even the expectation of higher rates, will lead to a change in discount rates, which is a fancy way to say future profits are worthless.\nInvestors want to take a hard look at their portfolios and ask whether they have positions which are overvalued beyond reason?\nNo need to look at obscure parts of the market, this is playing out in the S&P 500 (SPY).\nFor instance, I cannot fathom how a stock like Intuit (INTU) currently trades at 16x sales? Even on its lofty usual measure of 8-9x sales, this is unusually high. Compare it to the stock's historical dividend, and the reading is off the wall.\nInvestors want to focus on companies with strong earnings power, large-scale operations, which are trading at relatively cheap valuations.\nAmong those that come to mind in the top 100 stocks are Amgen (AMGN) which currently yields over 3%.\n\nSource: Dividend Freedom Tribe\nPhilip Morris International (PM), Broadcom (AVGO), and Morgan Stanley (MS.PK) are also undervalued relative to their historical valuations.\nIn such an environment, focus on quality is a must. Focus on value is a close second. We’re looking to buy the highest quality assets with growth prospects at a decent price. We’re very cautious that stimulus unwinding will hit consumption which will hit earning results. Big misses from overvalued names spells trouble. The responsible thing to do is to scale out of stocks when they become overvalued.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1292,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":835592050,"gmtCreate":1629726074670,"gmtModify":1633682917642,"author":{"id":"4090570965971460","authorId":"4090570965971460","name":"KeN3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffc770a2d3626a3e029ba2c461aac13d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090570965971460","idStr":"4090570965971460"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Unfortunately not invested","listText":"Unfortunately not invested","text":"Unfortunately not invested","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/835592050","repostId":"1105547841","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1105547841","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1629726022,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1105547841?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-23 21:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"NVIDIA shares rose nearly 3% to a new high<blockquote>英伟达股价涨近3%创新高</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105547841","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"NVIDIA shares rose nearly 3% to a new high in Monday morning trading.","content":"<p>NVIDIA shares rose nearly 3% to a new high&nbsp;in Monday morning trading.</p><p><blockquote>英伟达股价周一早盘上涨近3%，再创新高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8075cefb2210baeb244ede722b51d9bc\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NVIDIA shares rose nearly 3% to a new high<blockquote>英伟达股价涨近3%创新高</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNVIDIA shares rose nearly 3% to a new high<blockquote>英伟达股价涨近3%创新高</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-23 21:40</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>NVIDIA shares rose nearly 3% to a new high&nbsp;in Monday morning trading.</p><p><blockquote>英伟达股价周一早盘上涨近3%，再创新高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8075cefb2210baeb244ede722b51d9bc\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105547841","content_text":"NVIDIA shares rose nearly 3% to a new high in Monday morning trading.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":557,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":889890683,"gmtCreate":1631128608642,"gmtModify":1632884478403,"author":{"id":"4090570965971460","authorId":"4090570965971460","name":"KeN3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffc770a2d3626a3e029ba2c461aac13d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090570965971460","idStr":"4090570965971460"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Sea of red today.....","listText":"Sea of red today.....","text":"Sea of red today.....","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/889890683","repostId":"1152303824","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1152303824","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631113047,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1152303824?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-08 22:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stocks Are Suddenly Puking...<blockquote>股票突然呕吐...</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152303824","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Yesterday it was cryptos, this morning it appears US equities are in line for the monkeyhammering.\nI","content":"<p>Yesterday it was cryptos, this morning it appears US equities are in line for the monkeyhammering.</p><p><blockquote>昨天是cryptos，今天早上美国股市似乎即将遭受重创。</blockquote></p><p> It is unclear what the catalyst for the drop was - it occurred with significant delay from any<b>debt ceiling talk or Manchin's statements</b>- though some are noting the surge in JOLTS could have triggered some weakness as it may bring The Fed closer to tapering.</p><p><blockquote>目前尚不清楚这一下降的催化剂是什么——它的发生与任何<b>债务上限谈话或曼钦的声明</b>-尽管一些人指出，震动的激增可能会引发一些疲软，因为这可能会使美联储更接近缩减规模。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3e5ef549e107c935e4c60595e1332e2\" tg-width=\"1198\" tg-height=\"719\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The dollar is spiking at the same time...</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，美元正在飙升...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b472f02fa36cafd99491efa8113cbde\" tg-width=\"944\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">As&nbsp;SpotGamma notes,<b>there is a major inflection point (support) specifically at 4490 and major support at 4440</b>.</p><p><blockquote>正如SpotGamma指出的那样，<b>大拐点（支撑）具体在4490，大支撑在4440</b>.</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9295f0b196cb1e2e6c014b1dcdaf3a95\" tg-width=\"1067\" tg-height=\"528\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">We think it would take some type of fundamental push to break that level.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为需要某种类型的基本面推动才能突破该水平。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/514c13b2f8c4c99c5cd3eace81c51347\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"710\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In other words, things could get “chippy” but we don’t see things positioned for a large drawdown (&gt;1%).</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，事情可能会变得“轻松”，但我们认为事情不会出现大幅下跌（&gt;1%）。</blockquote></p><p> The big question is - What will Robert Kaplan do?</p><p><blockquote>最大的问题是——罗伯特·卡普兰会怎么做？</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stocks Are Suddenly Puking...<blockquote>股票突然呕吐...</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStocks Are Suddenly Puking...<blockquote>股票突然呕吐...</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-08 22:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Yesterday it was cryptos, this morning it appears US equities are in line for the monkeyhammering.</p><p><blockquote>昨天是cryptos，今天早上美国股市似乎即将遭受重创。</blockquote></p><p> It is unclear what the catalyst for the drop was - it occurred with significant delay from any<b>debt ceiling talk or Manchin's statements</b>- though some are noting the surge in JOLTS could have triggered some weakness as it may bring The Fed closer to tapering.</p><p><blockquote>目前尚不清楚这一下降的催化剂是什么——它的发生与任何<b>债务上限谈话或曼钦的声明</b>-尽管一些人指出，震动的激增可能会引发一些疲软，因为这可能会使美联储更接近缩减规模。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3e5ef549e107c935e4c60595e1332e2\" tg-width=\"1198\" tg-height=\"719\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The dollar is spiking at the same time...</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，美元正在飙升...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b472f02fa36cafd99491efa8113cbde\" tg-width=\"944\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">As&nbsp;SpotGamma notes,<b>there is a major inflection point (support) specifically at 4490 and major support at 4440</b>.</p><p><blockquote>正如SpotGamma指出的那样，<b>大拐点（支撑）具体在4490，大支撑在4440</b>.</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9295f0b196cb1e2e6c014b1dcdaf3a95\" tg-width=\"1067\" tg-height=\"528\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">We think it would take some type of fundamental push to break that level.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为需要某种类型的基本面推动才能突破该水平。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/514c13b2f8c4c99c5cd3eace81c51347\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"710\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In other words, things could get “chippy” but we don’t see things positioned for a large drawdown (&gt;1%).</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，事情可能会变得“轻松”，但我们认为事情不会出现大幅下跌（&gt;1%）。</blockquote></p><p> The big question is - What will Robert Kaplan do?</p><p><blockquote>最大的问题是——罗伯特·卡普兰会怎么做？</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-are-suddenly-puking?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-are-suddenly-puking?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152303824","content_text":"Yesterday it was cryptos, this morning it appears US equities are in line for the monkeyhammering.\nIt is unclear what the catalyst for the drop was - it occurred with significant delay from anydebt ceiling talk or Manchin's statements- though some are noting the surge in JOLTS could have triggered some weakness as it may bring The Fed closer to tapering.\nThe dollar is spiking at the same time...\nAs SpotGamma notes,there is a major inflection point (support) specifically at 4490 and major support at 4440.\nWe think it would take some type of fundamental push to break that level.\nIn other words, things could get “chippy” but we don’t see things positioned for a large drawdown (>1%).\nThe big question is - What will Robert Kaplan do?","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1894,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":830065575,"gmtCreate":1628994251797,"gmtModify":1633688108277,"author":{"id":"4090570965971460","authorId":"4090570965971460","name":"KeN3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffc770a2d3626a3e029ba2c461aac13d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090570965971460","idStr":"4090570965971460"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"No wonder price is going up","listText":"No wonder price is going up","text":"No wonder price is going up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/830065575","repostId":"2159321288","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2159321288","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1628990553,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2159321288?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-15 09:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Regulatory Risk Is A Silver Lining For Apple And Google<blockquote>为什么监管风险对苹果和谷歌来说是一线希望</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2159321288","media":"Benzinga","summary":"The threat of regulation has been looming over big tech giants such as Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) and","content":"<p>The threat of regulation has been looming over big tech giants such as <b>Apple Inc. </b>(NASDAQ: AAPL) and <b>Alphabet Inc. </b>(NASDAQ: GOOGL) (NASDAQ: GOOG) over the past three years.</p><p><blockquote>监管的威胁一直笼罩着大型科技巨头，例如<b>苹果公司。</b>（纳斯达克：AAPL）和<b>Alphabet公司。</b>（纳斯达克：GOOGL）（纳斯达克：GOOG）过去三年。</blockquote></p><p> With a bill seeking broader changes in the way Apple and Google operate their respective app stores introduced this week, Loup Funds Managing Partner Gene Munster offered his take on what is in store for these companies.</p><p><blockquote>随着本周推出的一项法案寻求对苹果和谷歌运营各自应用商店的方式进行更广泛的改变，Loup Funds管理合伙人吉恩·蒙斯特(Gene Munster)提出了他对这些公司未来的看法。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What the New Legislation Is All About: </b> The changes proposed by the legislation calls for allowing third-party app stores with the App Store and Google Play store, Munster noted. Both companies are also called to allow app developers to explicitly advertise within apps, so that consumers can subscribe and make purchases outside of the App Store or the Google Play Store, he added.</p><p><blockquote><b>新立法的内容是：</b>蒙斯特指出，评级立法提出的允许第三方应用商店与App Store和谷歌Play商店合作的变化。他补充说，两家公司还被要求允许应用程序开发者在应用程序内明确做广告，以便消费者可以在App Store或Google Play商店之外订阅和购买。</blockquote></p><p> This will help avoiding the 30% take rate on in-app purchases, the analyst said.</p><p><blockquote>分析师表示，这将有助于避免应用内购买30%的采用率。</blockquote></p><p> The proposed bill will have to be approved by the House and Senate before becoming law, Munster said.</p><p><blockquote>明斯特说，拟议的法案在成为法律之前必须得到众议院和参议院的批准。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Regulation Not Automatically Negative: </b> The end result of regulation is not automatically negative for big tech, given unintended consequences often occur when incentives change, Munster said.</p><p><blockquote><b>调节不自动为负：</b>蒙斯特表示，监管的最终结果不会自动对大型科技公司产生负面影响，因为当激励措施发生变化时，往往会出现意想不到的后果。</blockquote></p><p> Even if Apple buckles under pressure and reduces its take rate from 30% to 10% - a possibility which is unlikely – it could still make more money ultimately, the analyst said. A reduction in fees will likely spur greater growth in the app development ecosystem, he added.</p><p><blockquote>分析师表示，即使苹果在压力下屈服，将接受率从30%降至10%（这种可能性不太可能），它最终仍可能赚更多钱。他补充说，费用的降低可能会刺激应用程序开发生态系统的更大增长。</blockquote></p><p> Apple and Google, according to the analyst, have the stronger case, given they created their mobile app stores and are responsible for maintaining them, the analyst said. They, therefore, should have control over how things are curated and distributed within the stores, he added.</p><p><blockquote>分析师表示，苹果和谷歌拥有更强的理由，因为它们创建了自己的移动应用商店并负责维护这些商店。他补充说，因此，他们应该控制商店内商品的策划和分销方式。</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, opening the iPhone to third-party app stores, the analyst said, will weaken security and privacy, thereby harming consumers.</p><p><blockquote>此外，该分析师表示，向第三方应用商店开放iPhone将削弱安全性和隐私，从而损害消费者。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Munster's Take On Potential Regulation: </b> The likelihood of radical regulation as low, Munster said. If any regulations do&nbsp;materialize, the most likely outcome is that Apple and Google will be forced to remove their anti-steering clauses, thereby allowing publishers to advertise payment options outside of the default in-app payment systems, the analyst said.</p><p><blockquote><b>明斯特对潜在监管的看法：</b>明斯特说，激进监管的可能性很低。该分析师表示，如果任何法规真的成为现实，最有可能的结果是苹果和谷歌将被迫删除其反转向条款，从而允许出版商在默认的应用内支付系统之外宣传支付选项。</blockquote></p><p> \"This would have limited impact on consumer app store engagement given the easiest way to manage app spending will be to remain inside the respective walled gardens,\" the analyst concluded.</p><p><blockquote>这位分析师总结道：“这对消费者应用商店参与度的影响有限，因为管理应用支出最简单的方法是留在各自的围墙花园里。”</blockquote></p><p> Apple closed Friday's session down 0.14% at $149.10 and Google ended nearly flat at $2,768.12.</p><p><blockquote>苹果周五收盘下跌0.14%，至149.10美元，谷歌收盘几乎持平，至2,768.12美元。</blockquote></p><p> Latest Ratings for AAPL</p><p><blockquote>AAPL的最新评级</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <th>Date</th>    <th>Firm</th>    <th>Action</th>    <th>From</th>    <th>To</th>   </tr>  </tbody>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td>Jul 2021</td>    <td>Loop Capital</td>    <td>Maintains</td>    <td></td>    <td>Buy</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Jul 2021</td>    <td>Deutsche Bank</td>    <td>Maintains</td>    <td></td>    <td>Buy</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Jul 2021</td>    <td>Piper Sandler</td>    <td>Maintains</td>    <td></td>    <td>Overweight</td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><th>日期</th><th>公司</th><th>行动</th><th>来自</th><th>到</th></tr></tbody><tbody><tr><td>2021年7月</td><td>循环资本</td><td>维护</td><td></td><td>购买</td></tr><tr><td>2021年7月</td><td>德意志银行</td><td>维护</td><td></td><td>购买</td></tr><tr><td>2021年7月</td><td>派珀·桑德勒</td><td>维护</td><td></td><td>跑赢大盘</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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Both companies are also called to allow app developers to explicitly advertise within apps, so that consumers can subscribe and make purchases outside of the App Store or the Google Play Store, he added.</p><p><blockquote><b>新立法的内容是：</b>蒙斯特指出，评级立法提出的允许第三方应用商店与App Store和谷歌Play商店合作的变化。他补充说，两家公司还被要求允许应用程序开发者在应用程序内明确做广告，以便消费者可以在App Store或Google Play商店之外订阅和购买。</blockquote></p><p> This will help avoiding the 30% take rate on in-app purchases, the analyst said.</p><p><blockquote>分析师表示，这将有助于避免应用内购买30%的采用率。</blockquote></p><p> The proposed bill will have to be approved by the House and Senate before becoming law, Munster said.</p><p><blockquote>明斯特说，拟议的法案在成为法律之前必须得到众议院和参议院的批准。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Regulation Not Automatically Negative: </b> The end result of regulation is not automatically negative for big tech, given unintended consequences often occur when incentives change, Munster said.</p><p><blockquote><b>调节不自动为负：</b>蒙斯特表示，监管的最终结果不会自动对大型科技公司产生负面影响，因为当激励措施发生变化时，往往会出现意想不到的后果。</blockquote></p><p> Even if Apple buckles under pressure and reduces its take rate from 30% to 10% - a possibility which is unlikely – it could still make more money ultimately, the analyst said. A reduction in fees will likely spur greater growth in the app development ecosystem, he added.</p><p><blockquote>分析师表示，即使苹果在压力下屈服，将接受率从30%降至10%（这种可能性不太可能），它最终仍可能赚更多钱。他补充说，费用的降低可能会刺激应用程序开发生态系统的更大增长。</blockquote></p><p> Apple and Google, according to the analyst, have the stronger case, given they created their mobile app stores and are responsible for maintaining them, the analyst said. They, therefore, should have control over how things are curated and distributed within the stores, he added.</p><p><blockquote>分析师表示，苹果和谷歌拥有更强的理由，因为它们创建了自己的移动应用商店并负责维护这些商店。他补充说，因此，他们应该控制商店内商品的策划和分销方式。</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, opening the iPhone to third-party app stores, the analyst said, will weaken security and privacy, thereby harming consumers.</p><p><blockquote>此外，该分析师表示，向第三方应用商店开放iPhone将削弱安全性和隐私，从而损害消费者。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Munster's Take On Potential Regulation: </b> The likelihood of radical regulation as low, Munster said. If any regulations do&nbsp;materialize, the most likely outcome is that Apple and Google will be forced to remove their anti-steering clauses, thereby allowing publishers to advertise payment options outside of the default in-app payment systems, the analyst said.</p><p><blockquote><b>明斯特对潜在监管的看法：</b>明斯特说，激进监管的可能性很低。该分析师表示，如果任何法规真的成为现实，最有可能的结果是苹果和谷歌将被迫删除其反转向条款，从而允许出版商在默认的应用内支付系统之外宣传支付选项。</blockquote></p><p> \"This would have limited impact on consumer app store engagement given the easiest way to manage app spending will be to remain inside the respective walled gardens,\" the analyst concluded.</p><p><blockquote>这位分析师总结道：“这对消费者应用商店参与度的影响有限，因为管理应用支出最简单的方法是留在各自的围墙花园里。”</blockquote></p><p> Apple closed Friday's session down 0.14% at $149.10 and Google ended nearly flat at $2,768.12.</p><p><blockquote>苹果周五收盘下跌0.14%，至149.10美元，谷歌收盘几乎持平，至2,768.12美元。</blockquote></p><p> Latest Ratings for AAPL</p><p><blockquote>AAPL的最新评级</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <th>Date</th>    <th>Firm</th>    <th>Action</th>    <th>From</th>    <th>To</th>   </tr>  </tbody>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td>Jul 2021</td>    <td>Loop Capital</td>    <td>Maintains</td>    <td></td>    <td>Buy</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Jul 2021</td>    <td>Deutsche Bank</td>    <td>Maintains</td>    <td></td>    <td>Buy</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Jul 2021</td>    <td>Piper Sandler</td>    <td>Maintains</td>    <td></td>    <td>Overweight</td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><th>日期</th><th>公司</th><th>行动</th><th>来自</th><th>到</th></tr></tbody><tbody><tr><td>2021年7月</td><td>循环资本</td><td>维护</td><td></td><td>购买</td></tr><tr><td>2021年7月</td><td>德意志银行</td><td>维护</td><td></td><td>购买</td></tr><tr><td>2021年7月</td><td>派珀·桑德勒</td><td>维护</td><td></td><td>跑赢大盘</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GOOG":"谷歌","GOOGL":"谷歌A","AAPL":"苹果"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2159321288","content_text":"The threat of regulation has been looming over big tech giants such as Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) and Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOGL) (NASDAQ: GOOG) over the past three years.\nWith a bill seeking broader changes in the way Apple and Google operate their respective app stores introduced this week, Loup Funds Managing Partner Gene Munster offered his take on what is in store for these companies.\nWhat the New Legislation Is All About:  The changes proposed by the legislation calls for allowing third-party app stores with the App Store and Google Play store, Munster noted. Both companies are also called to allow app developers to explicitly advertise within apps, so that consumers can subscribe and make purchases outside of the App Store or the Google Play Store, he added.\nThis will help avoiding the 30% take rate on in-app purchases, the analyst said.\nThe proposed bill will have to be approved by the House and Senate before becoming law, Munster said.\nRegulation Not Automatically Negative:  The end result of regulation is not automatically negative for big tech, given unintended consequences often occur when incentives change, Munster said.\nEven if Apple buckles under pressure and reduces its take rate from 30% to 10% - a possibility which is unlikely – it could still make more money ultimately, the analyst said. A reduction in fees will likely spur greater growth in the app development ecosystem, he added.\nApple and Google, according to the analyst, have the stronger case, given they created their mobile app stores and are responsible for maintaining them, the analyst said. They, therefore, should have control over how things are curated and distributed within the stores, he added.\nAdditionally, opening the iPhone to third-party app stores, the analyst said, will weaken security and privacy, thereby harming consumers.\nMunster's Take On Potential Regulation:  The likelihood of radical regulation as low, Munster said. If any regulations do materialize, the most likely outcome is that Apple and Google will be forced to remove their anti-steering clauses, thereby allowing publishers to advertise payment options outside of the default in-app payment systems, the analyst said.\n\"This would have limited impact on consumer app store engagement given the easiest way to manage app spending will be to remain inside the respective walled gardens,\" the analyst concluded.\nApple closed Friday's session down 0.14% at $149.10 and Google ended nearly flat at $2,768.12.\nLatest Ratings for AAPL\n\n\n\nDate\nFirm\nAction\nFrom\nTo\n\n\n\n\nJul 2021\nLoop Capital\nMaintains\n\nBuy\n\n\nJul 2021\nDeutsche Bank\nMaintains\n\nBuy\n\n\nJul 2021\nPiper Sandler\nMaintains\n\nOverweight","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9,"GOOG":0.9,"GOOGL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":532,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":820917665,"gmtCreate":1633340319602,"gmtModify":1633340319808,"author":{"id":"4090570965971460","authorId":"4090570965971460","name":"KeN3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffc770a2d3626a3e029ba2c461aac13d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090570965971460","idStr":"4090570965971460"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Prices moving up so fast","listText":"Prices moving up so fast","text":"Prices moving up so fast","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/820917665","repostId":"1137835462","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137835462","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1633334786,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1137835462?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-04 16:06","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla shares rose 1.4% in premarket trading<blockquote>特斯拉股价在盘前交易中上涨1.4%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137835462","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Tesla shares rose 1.4% in premarket trading.\nTesla Inc said on Saturday it had delivered a record el","content":"<p>Tesla&nbsp;shares&nbsp;rose&nbsp;1.4%&nbsp;in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价在盘前交易中上涨1.</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2cab5fe12ed908fae1c4667b858ab877\" tg-width=\"885\" tg-height=\"619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Tesla Inc said on Saturday it had delivered a record electric cars in the third quarter, beating Wall Street estimates after Chief Executive Elon Musk asked staff to \"go super hardcore\" to make a quarter-end delivery push.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉公司周六表示，第三季度电动汽车交付量创历史新高，超出华尔街预期，此前首席执行官Elon Musk要求员工“超级努力”推动季度末交付量。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla has weathered the chip crisis better than rivals, with its overall deliveries surging 20% in the July to September period from its previous record in the second quarter, marking the sixth consecutive quarter-on-quarter gains. </p><p><blockquote>特斯拉比竞争对手更好地度过了芯片危机，其7月至9月期间的整体交付量较第二季度的纪录飙升了20%，这是连续第六个季度环比增长。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla delivered 241,300 vehicles globally in the July to September quarter, up 73% from a year earlier. Analysts had expected the electric-car maker to deliver 229,242 vehicles, according to Refinitiv data.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉7月至9月季度在全球交付了241,300辆汽车，同比增长73%。根据Refinitiv的数据，分析师此前预计这家电动汽车制造商将交付229,242辆汽车。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla shares rose 1.4% in premarket trading<blockquote>特斯拉股价在盘前交易中上涨1.4%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla shares rose 1.4% in premarket trading<blockquote>特斯拉股价在盘前交易中上涨1.4%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-10-04 16:06</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Tesla&nbsp;shares&nbsp;rose&nbsp;1.4%&nbsp;in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价在盘前交易中上涨1.</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2cab5fe12ed908fae1c4667b858ab877\" tg-width=\"885\" tg-height=\"619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Tesla Inc said on Saturday it had delivered a record electric cars in the third quarter, beating Wall Street estimates after Chief Executive Elon Musk asked staff to \"go super hardcore\" to make a quarter-end delivery push.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉公司周六表示，第三季度电动汽车交付量创历史新高，超出华尔街预期，此前首席执行官Elon Musk要求员工“超级努力”推动季度末交付量。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla has weathered the chip crisis better than rivals, with its overall deliveries surging 20% in the July to September period from its previous record in the second quarter, marking the sixth consecutive quarter-on-quarter gains. </p><p><blockquote>特斯拉比竞争对手更好地度过了芯片危机，其7月至9月期间的整体交付量较第二季度的纪录飙升了20%，这是连续第六个季度环比增长。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla delivered 241,300 vehicles globally in the July to September quarter, up 73% from a year earlier. Analysts had expected the electric-car maker to deliver 229,242 vehicles, according to Refinitiv data.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉7月至9月季度在全球交付了241,300辆汽车，同比增长73%。根据Refinitiv的数据，分析师此前预计这家电动汽车制造商将交付229,242辆汽车。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137835462","content_text":"Tesla shares rose 1.4% in premarket trading.\nTesla Inc said on Saturday it had delivered a record electric cars in the third quarter, beating Wall Street estimates after Chief Executive Elon Musk asked staff to \"go super hardcore\" to make a quarter-end delivery push.\nTesla has weathered the chip crisis better than rivals, with its overall deliveries surging 20% in the July to September period from its previous record in the second quarter, marking the sixth consecutive quarter-on-quarter gains. \nTesla delivered 241,300 vehicles globally in the July to September quarter, up 73% from a year earlier. Analysts had expected the electric-car maker to deliver 229,242 vehicles, according to Refinitiv data.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3078,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":839812020,"gmtCreate":1629140301260,"gmtModify":1633687132357,"author":{"id":"4090570965971460","authorId":"4090570965971460","name":"KeN3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffc770a2d3626a3e029ba2c461aac13d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090570965971460","idStr":"4090570965971460"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Still moving up....","listText":"Still moving up....","text":"Still moving up....","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/839812020","repostId":"1135212237","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1135212237","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1629125001,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1135212237?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-16 22:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Big tech stocks fell in morning trading, Apple fell over 1% after reaching record high<blockquote>大型科技股早盘下跌苹果创历史新高后跌超1%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135212237","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(Aug 16) Big tech stocks fell in morning trading. Apple fell over 1% after reaching record high at $","content":"<p>(Aug 16)&nbsp;Big tech stocks fell in morning trading. Apple fell over 1% after reaching record high at $150.59.</p><p><blockquote>（8月16日）大型科技股早盘下跌。苹果在触及150.59美元的历史新高后跌超1%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7c0f1effcd77008de0ea3edac4e6766\" tg-width=\"309\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Big tech stocks fell in morning trading, Apple fell over 1% after reaching record high<blockquote>大型科技股早盘下跌苹果创历史新高后跌超1%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBig tech stocks fell in morning trading, Apple fell over 1% after reaching record high<blockquote>大型科技股早盘下跌苹果创历史新高后跌超1%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-16 22:43</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Aug 16)&nbsp;Big tech stocks fell in morning trading. Apple fell over 1% after reaching record high at $150.59.</p><p><blockquote>（8月16日）大型科技股早盘下跌。苹果在触及150.59美元的历史新高后跌超1%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7c0f1effcd77008de0ea3edac4e6766\" tg-width=\"309\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1135212237","content_text":"(Aug 16) Big tech stocks fell in morning trading. Apple fell over 1% after reaching record high at $150.59.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":471,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":834187159,"gmtCreate":1629780469071,"gmtModify":1633682473306,"author":{"id":"4090570965971460","authorId":"4090570965971460","name":"KeN3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffc770a2d3626a3e029ba2c461aac13d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090570965971460","idStr":"4090570965971460"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"If crosses the $150 mark.. there’ll be a spurt","listText":"If crosses the $150 mark.. there’ll be a spurt","text":"If crosses the $150 mark.. there’ll be a spurt","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/834187159","repostId":"1104413070","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":716,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":836479560,"gmtCreate":1629518584950,"gmtModify":1633684279147,"author":{"id":"4090570965971460","authorId":"4090570965971460","name":"KeN3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffc770a2d3626a3e029ba2c461aac13d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090570965971460","idStr":"4090570965971460"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Doesn’t sound too good","listText":"Doesn’t sound too good","text":"Doesn’t sound too good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/836479560","repostId":"1107075259","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1107075259","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629509852,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1107075259?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-21 09:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Ignore Elon Musk’s dancing distraction and face the dangers ahead for Tesla<blockquote>忽略Elon Musk跳舞的干扰，面对特斯拉未来的危险</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107075259","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Investigations into automated-driving systems and the statements made about it by the electric-car company and its chief executive deserve more attention than their latest fanciful technology aspirations and timelines.$Investors$ should ignore Elon Musk’s latest dance and focus instead on the growing issues Tesla is facing because of its chief executive’s exaggerated claims about his company’s technological capabilities.At $Tesla Motors$’s AI Day late Thursday, self-named Technoking Musk said th","content":"<p>  <b>Investigations into automated-driving systems and the statements made about it by the electric-car company and its chief executive deserve more attention than their latest fanciful technology aspirations and timelines.</b>  <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISBC\">Investors</a> should ignore Elon Musk’s latest dance and focus instead on the growing issues Tesla is facing because of its chief executive’s exaggerated claims about his company’s technological capabilities.</p><p><blockquote><b>对自动驾驶系统的调查以及这家电动汽车公司及其首席执行官就此发表的声明比他们最新的异想天开的技术愿望和时间表更值得关注。</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISBC\">投资者</a>应该忽略Elon Musk的最新舞蹈，而是关注特斯拉因首席执行官夸大其公司技术能力而面临的日益严重的问题。</blockquote></p><p> At <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla Motors</a>’s&nbsp;AI Day late Thursday, self-named Technoking Musk said that the company is working on a humanoid robot as “Tesla is arguably the world’s biggest robotics company because our cars are like semi-sentient robots on wheels.”</p><p><blockquote>在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>周四晚些时候，自称Technoking Musk的马斯克表示，该公司正在开发一款人形机器人，因为“特斯拉可以说是世界上最大的机器人公司，因为我们的汽车就像轮子上的半感知机器人。”</blockquote></p><p> After a white-suited human did a brief dance for the believers in the audience and on a livestream, Musk came on the stage and showed only computer-generated images of a 5’8″ humanoid robot thathe claimed Tesla will produce a prototype of sometime next year. He inferred it could be used for manufacturing or boring repetitive tasks, like grocery shopping and will have a full self-driving computer.</p><p><blockquote>在一名身穿白色西装的人类为观众和直播中的信徒跳了一支简短的舞蹈后，马斯克走上舞台，只展示了一个5英尺8英寸的人形机器人的计算机生成图像，马斯克声称特斯拉将在明年的某个时候生产出一个原型。他推断它可以用于制造或无聊的重复性任务，例如杂货店购物，并且将配备全自动驾驶计算机。</blockquote></p><p> As always with Musk and Tesla, the timeline is highly doubtful to anyone with basic knowledge of the technology in question. Fortunately, the antics did not fool everyone on Wall Street, some of whom may be getting tired of his shenanigans.</p><p><blockquote>和马斯克和特斯拉一样，对于任何对相关技术有基本了解的人来说，时间表都是非常值得怀疑的。幸运的是，这些滑稽动作并没有愚弄华尔街的所有人，其中一些人可能已经厌倦了他的恶作剧。</blockquote></p><p> “Unfortunately, as we have seen with robotaxis and other future sci-fi projects for Musk, we view this&nbsp;Tesla&nbsp;Bot as an absolute head scratcher that will further agitate investors at a time the Street is showing growing concern around rising EV competition and safety issues for&nbsp;Tesla,” said Dan Ives, a Wedbush Securities analyst, in a note to clients early Friday.</p><p><blockquote>“不幸的是，正如我们在机器人出租车和马斯克未来的其他科幻项目中所看到的那样，我们认为这款特斯拉机器人绝对令人挠头，在华尔街对电动汽车竞争和安全日益担忧之际，它将进一步激怒投资者。特斯拉的问题，”韦德布什证券分析师Dan Ives在周五早些时候给客户的一份报告中表示。</blockquote></p><p> The safety issues Ives mentions are what investors should be attuned to right now, because it appears the government is finally stepping up and taking note of a problem this column has long pointed out: Musk repeatedly oversells the current and near-term potential for his automotive autonomy advanced technology.</p><p><blockquote>艾夫斯提到的安全问题是投资者现在应该关注的问题，因为政府似乎终于站出来并注意到本专栏长期以来指出的一个问题：马斯克一再高估其汽车自动驾驶先进技术的当前和近期潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> a day before Thursday’s “AI Day” spectacle,two U.S. senators asked the Federal Trade Commission to investigate both Tesla’s and Musk’s “repeated overstatements of their vehicles’ capabilities”in regards to the marketing of Tesla’s “Full Self Driving” product. Tesla charges thousands of dollars at purchase (or as little as $100 a month) for software that is nowhere near full self-driving, a practice that has already led toa recent review by California Department of Motor Vehiclesanda German ruling that Tesla could not market the product as such.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>在周四“人工智能日”奇观的前一天，两名美国参议员要求联邦贸易委员会调查特斯拉和马斯克在特斯拉“全自动驾驶”产品营销方面“一再夸大其车辆功能”的行为。特斯拉对远未完全自动驾驶的软件在购买时收取数千美元（或每月低至100美元）的费用，这种做法已经导致加州机动车辆管理局最近进行审查，德国裁定特斯拉不能销售该产品本身。</blockquote></p><p> “Language matters,” said Selika Talbott, a professorial lecturer in the department of public administration and policy at <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFG\">American</a> University in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">Washington</a> DC. “The use of this terminology is false and misleading and unsafe for the general public. The notions of assisted driving and autonomous vehicles and their differences are not fully understood by the general public.”</p><p><blockquote>“语言很重要，”塞利卡·塔尔博特(Selika Talbott)说。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFG\">美国的</a>大学在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">华盛顿州</a>直流电。“这个术语的使用是错误的、误导性的，对公众来说是不安全的。辅助驾驶和自动驾驶汽车的概念及其区别并没有被公众完全理解。”</blockquote></p><p> “Tesla has highly assisted technology in their vehicle, but at no point should anyone behind the wheel think that vehicle can drive itself, because it can’t,” Talbott said.</p><p><blockquote>塔尔博特说：“特斯拉在他们的车辆中配备了高度辅助技术，但任何驾驶人员都不应该认为车辆可以自动驾驶，因为它不能。”</blockquote></p><p> The week began with news of a federal investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot system after cars using the feature crashed into stopped emergency vehicles.The <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NHLD\">National</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HIHO\">Highway</a> Traffic Safety Administration is looking into a series of crashesby Tesla cars that had the advanced driver-assistance system enabled. NHTSA said that itopened an inquiry into 11 Tesla crashesthat involved emergency vehicles, while still investigating a series of collisions involving cars enabled with <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AEIS\">Advanced</a> Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) and tractor-trailers.</p><p><blockquote>本周伊始，有消息称，使用该功能的汽车撞上了停下来的紧急车辆，联邦政府对特斯拉的自动驾驶系统进行了调查。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NHLD\">国家的</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HIHO\">公路</a>交通安全管理局正在调查一系列启用了高级驾驶员辅助系统的特斯拉汽车发生的撞车事故。NHTSA表示，已对11起涉及紧急车辆的特斯拉事故展开调查，同时仍在调查一系列涉及启用紧急车辆的汽车的碰撞事故<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AEIS\">先进的</a>驾驶员辅助系统（ADAS）和牵引车拖车。</blockquote></p><p> The latest outcry on Capitol <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HIL\">Hill</a> follows a stream of news reports and/or social media posts and YouTube videos of drivers engaging in extremely risky behavior while testing the so-called self-driving features of their Tesla. In May, Steven Michael Hendrickson,a 35-year-old father of two in Fontana, Calif., died when his Tesla hit an overturned semitruck. Earlier he had posted videos of driving without his hands on the wheel of his car on the freeway, but the NHTSA was still investigating the role of Autopilot in the crash.</p><p><blockquote>国会大厦的最新抗议<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HIL\">山丘</a>关注一系列新闻报道和/或社交媒体帖子和YouTube视频，这些视频显示司机在测试特斯拉的所谓自动驾驶功能时做出了极其危险的行为。今年5月，加利福尼亚州丰塔纳市35岁的两个孩子的父亲Steven Michael Hendrickson在他的特斯拉撞上一辆翻倒的半挂卡车时死亡。早些时候，他发布了在高速公路上双手不放在方向盘上驾驶的视频，但NHTSA仍在调查自动驾驶仪在事故中的作用。</blockquote></p><p> “The vehicles that Tesla is producing are driver-assisted systems,” said Bryan Reimer, a research scientist at the MIT Center for Transportation and Logistics. “They are assisting the driver, and the driver needs to maintain vigilance.”</p><p><blockquote>“特斯拉正在生产的车辆是驾驶辅助系统，”麻省理工学院运输和物流中心的研究科学家布莱恩·赖默说。“他们在协助司机，司机需要保持警惕。”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> It is important to note the difference between Tesla’s dual products with misleading names. “Autopilot” is an ADAS system, a highly advanced version of cruise control meant for highway driving that enables “your car to steer, accelerate and brake automatically within its lane under your active supervision, assisting with the most burdensome parts of driving,” according to Tesla’s website. Tesla also offers the “FSD” package, now available by a subscription of $99 to $199 a month, which it describes as “access to a suite of more advanced driver assistance features, designed to provide more active guidance and assisted driving under your active supervision.”</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，特斯拉具有误导性名称的双产品之间的差异。“Autopilot”是一种ADAS系统，是一种高度先进的巡航控制版本，适用于高速公路驾驶，使“您的汽车能够在您的主动监督下在车道内自动转向、加速和制动，协助驾驶中最繁重的部分”。特斯拉的网站。特斯拉还提供“FSD”套餐，现在每月订阅费用为99至199美元，其将其描述为“访问一套更先进的驾驶员辅助功能，旨在在您的主动监督下提供更主动的指导和辅助驾驶。”</blockquote></p><p> If only Musk described these systems in a similar manner to the official website. In analyst conference calls and in Tesla’s multi-hour long presentations to its fan base, Musk has been proclaiming that with this software, full autonomy is around the corner.</p><p><blockquote>要是马斯克用和官网类似的方式描述这些系统就好了。在评级分析师会议上以及特斯拉向其粉丝群进行的长达数小时的演示中，马斯克一直宣称，有了这款软件，完全自主指日可待。</blockquote></p><p> “We&nbsp;basically&nbsp;have&nbsp;to&nbsp;solve&nbsp;real-world vision AI and we are,” he said in an earnings call in April. “And the key to solving this is also having some massive data set. So just having well over <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> million cars on the road that are collecting data… But I am highly confident that we&nbsp;will&nbsp;get&nbsp;this&nbsp;done.”</p><p><blockquote>“我们基本上必须解决现实世界的视觉人工智能，我们确实做到了，”他在4月份的财报看涨期权上表示。“解决这个问题的关键还在于拥有一些大规模的数据集。所以只要有足够的数据集<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>道路上有数百万辆汽车正在收集数据……但我非常有信心我们能够完成这项工作。”</blockquote></p><p> But for all of Musk’s bluster and huge fan base, investors are starting to note that the company’s tactics involving full self-driving technology are dangerous, as opposed to the other companies that are testing autonomous vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>但尽管马斯克夸夸其谈，拥有庞大的粉丝群，但投资者开始注意到，与其他正在测试自动驾驶汽车的公司相比，该公司涉及全自动驾驶技术的策略是危险的。</blockquote></p><p> For example, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Alphabet</a> Inc.’sGOOGGOOGLWaymo, the company with the most hours of autonomous vehicle driving, is currently operating a small scale robotaxi service in parts of Arizona around Phoenix that are not densely populated, without human drivers. It is the only one of its kind in the U.S. In California, Waymo has permits from the DMV to conduct AV testing with a human driver behind the wheel.</p><p><blockquote>例如，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Alphabet</a>Inc.旗下的GOOGGOOGLWaymo是自动驾驶汽车时间最长的公司，目前正在亚利桑那州凤凰城周围人口不稠密的地区运营小规模机器人出租车服务，没有人类司机。这是美国唯一一家此类公司。在加利福尼亚州，Waymo获得了DMV的许可，可以在人类驾驶员驾驶的情况下进行AV测试。</blockquote></p><p> “Waymo cannot just start selling their AVs to anyone, and they can’t just drive them on the roadway, our regulatory system does not allow for that,” Talbott of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMSWA\">American</a> University said. “You can test them but no publicly available self-driving car is on the market for purchase because it doesn’t exist.”</p><p><blockquote>“Waymo不能开始向任何人出售他们的自动驾驶汽车，他们也不能只是在道路上驾驶它们，我们的监管体系不允许这样做，”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMSWA\">美国的</a>大学表示。“你可以测试它们，但市场上没有公开的自动驾驶汽车可供购买，因为它不存在。”</blockquote></p><p> With FSD testing being done in the real world with untrained drivers, Tesla is conducting the equivalent of clinical trials of a new drug without any professional hourly or daily monitoring of the patient.</p><p><blockquote>随着FSD测试在现实世界中由未经训练的驾驶员进行，特斯拉正在进行相当于新药临床试验的试验，而无需对患者进行任何专业的每小时或每天监测。</blockquote></p><p> “They are calling it beta, it is a beta system, they are exposing people to substantive risk,” Reimer said.</p><p><blockquote>“他们称之为测试版，这是一个测试版系统，他们让人们面临重大风险，”赖默说。</blockquote></p><p> Musk’s latest bot is yet another distraction, much like the flame thrower in 2018 sold by his Boring Company, his unwanted assistance to try and help the boys stuck in a cave in Thailand, and other projects. Investors should not let these distractions get in the way of the real issues that Musk seems to be refusing to acknowledge as he continues to oversell his company’s technological abilities.</p><p><blockquote>马斯克的最新机器人是另一个干扰，就像他的Boring Company在2018年出售的火焰喷射器、他试图帮助被困在泰国洞穴中的男孩的不必要的帮助以及其他项目一样。投资者不应该让这些干扰妨碍马斯克似乎拒绝承认的真正问题，因为他继续夸大公司的技术能力。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Ignore Elon Musk’s dancing distraction and face the dangers ahead for Tesla<blockquote>忽略Elon Musk跳舞的干扰，面对特斯拉未来的危险</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIgnore Elon Musk’s dancing distraction and face the dangers ahead for Tesla<blockquote>忽略Elon Musk跳舞的干扰，面对特斯拉未来的危险</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-21 09:37</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>Investigations into automated-driving systems and the statements made about it by the electric-car company and its chief executive deserve more attention than their latest fanciful technology aspirations and timelines.</b>  <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISBC\">Investors</a> should ignore Elon Musk’s latest dance and focus instead on the growing issues Tesla is facing because of its chief executive’s exaggerated claims about his company’s technological capabilities.</p><p><blockquote><b>对自动驾驶系统的调查以及这家电动汽车公司及其首席执行官就此发表的声明比他们最新的异想天开的技术愿望和时间表更值得关注。</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISBC\">投资者</a>应该忽略Elon Musk的最新舞蹈，而是关注特斯拉因首席执行官夸大其公司技术能力而面临的日益严重的问题。</blockquote></p><p> At <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla Motors</a>’s&nbsp;AI Day late Thursday, self-named Technoking Musk said that the company is working on a humanoid robot as “Tesla is arguably the world’s biggest robotics company because our cars are like semi-sentient robots on wheels.”</p><p><blockquote>在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>周四晚些时候，自称Technoking Musk的马斯克表示，该公司正在开发一款人形机器人，因为“特斯拉可以说是世界上最大的机器人公司，因为我们的汽车就像轮子上的半感知机器人。”</blockquote></p><p> After a white-suited human did a brief dance for the believers in the audience and on a livestream, Musk came on the stage and showed only computer-generated images of a 5’8″ humanoid robot thathe claimed Tesla will produce a prototype of sometime next year. He inferred it could be used for manufacturing or boring repetitive tasks, like grocery shopping and will have a full self-driving computer.</p><p><blockquote>在一名身穿白色西装的人类为观众和直播中的信徒跳了一支简短的舞蹈后，马斯克走上舞台，只展示了一个5英尺8英寸的人形机器人的计算机生成图像，马斯克声称特斯拉将在明年的某个时候生产出一个原型。他推断它可以用于制造或无聊的重复性任务，例如杂货店购物，并且将配备全自动驾驶计算机。</blockquote></p><p> As always with Musk and Tesla, the timeline is highly doubtful to anyone with basic knowledge of the technology in question. Fortunately, the antics did not fool everyone on Wall Street, some of whom may be getting tired of his shenanigans.</p><p><blockquote>和马斯克和特斯拉一样，对于任何对相关技术有基本了解的人来说，时间表都是非常值得怀疑的。幸运的是，这些滑稽动作并没有愚弄华尔街的所有人，其中一些人可能已经厌倦了他的恶作剧。</blockquote></p><p> “Unfortunately, as we have seen with robotaxis and other future sci-fi projects for Musk, we view this&nbsp;Tesla&nbsp;Bot as an absolute head scratcher that will further agitate investors at a time the Street is showing growing concern around rising EV competition and safety issues for&nbsp;Tesla,” said Dan Ives, a Wedbush Securities analyst, in a note to clients early Friday.</p><p><blockquote>“不幸的是，正如我们在机器人出租车和马斯克未来的其他科幻项目中所看到的那样，我们认为这款特斯拉机器人绝对令人挠头，在华尔街对电动汽车竞争和安全日益担忧之际，它将进一步激怒投资者。特斯拉的问题，”韦德布什证券分析师Dan Ives在周五早些时候给客户的一份报告中表示。</blockquote></p><p> The safety issues Ives mentions are what investors should be attuned to right now, because it appears the government is finally stepping up and taking note of a problem this column has long pointed out: Musk repeatedly oversells the current and near-term potential for his automotive autonomy advanced technology.</p><p><blockquote>艾夫斯提到的安全问题是投资者现在应该关注的问题，因为政府似乎终于站出来并注意到本专栏长期以来指出的一个问题：马斯克一再高估其汽车自动驾驶先进技术的当前和近期潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> a day before Thursday’s “AI Day” spectacle,two U.S. senators asked the Federal Trade Commission to investigate both Tesla’s and Musk’s “repeated overstatements of their vehicles’ capabilities”in regards to the marketing of Tesla’s “Full Self Driving” product. Tesla charges thousands of dollars at purchase (or as little as $100 a month) for software that is nowhere near full self-driving, a practice that has already led toa recent review by California Department of Motor Vehiclesanda German ruling that Tesla could not market the product as such.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>在周四“人工智能日”奇观的前一天，两名美国参议员要求联邦贸易委员会调查特斯拉和马斯克在特斯拉“全自动驾驶”产品营销方面“一再夸大其车辆功能”的行为。特斯拉对远未完全自动驾驶的软件在购买时收取数千美元（或每月低至100美元）的费用，这种做法已经导致加州机动车辆管理局最近进行审查，德国裁定特斯拉不能销售该产品本身。</blockquote></p><p> “Language matters,” said Selika Talbott, a professorial lecturer in the department of public administration and policy at <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFG\">American</a> University in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">Washington</a> DC. “The use of this terminology is false and misleading and unsafe for the general public. The notions of assisted driving and autonomous vehicles and their differences are not fully understood by the general public.”</p><p><blockquote>“语言很重要，”塞利卡·塔尔博特(Selika Talbott)说。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFG\">美国的</a>大学在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">华盛顿州</a>直流电。“这个术语的使用是错误的、误导性的，对公众来说是不安全的。辅助驾驶和自动驾驶汽车的概念及其区别并没有被公众完全理解。”</blockquote></p><p> “Tesla has highly assisted technology in their vehicle, but at no point should anyone behind the wheel think that vehicle can drive itself, because it can’t,” Talbott said.</p><p><blockquote>塔尔博特说：“特斯拉在他们的车辆中配备了高度辅助技术，但任何驾驶人员都不应该认为车辆可以自动驾驶，因为它不能。”</blockquote></p><p> The week began with news of a federal investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot system after cars using the feature crashed into stopped emergency vehicles.The <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NHLD\">National</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HIHO\">Highway</a> Traffic Safety Administration is looking into a series of crashesby Tesla cars that had the advanced driver-assistance system enabled. NHTSA said that itopened an inquiry into 11 Tesla crashesthat involved emergency vehicles, while still investigating a series of collisions involving cars enabled with <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AEIS\">Advanced</a> Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) and tractor-trailers.</p><p><blockquote>本周伊始，有消息称，使用该功能的汽车撞上了停下来的紧急车辆，联邦政府对特斯拉的自动驾驶系统进行了调查。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NHLD\">国家的</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HIHO\">公路</a>交通安全管理局正在调查一系列启用了高级驾驶员辅助系统的特斯拉汽车发生的撞车事故。NHTSA表示，已对11起涉及紧急车辆的特斯拉事故展开调查，同时仍在调查一系列涉及启用紧急车辆的汽车的碰撞事故<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AEIS\">先进的</a>驾驶员辅助系统（ADAS）和牵引车拖车。</blockquote></p><p> The latest outcry on Capitol <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HIL\">Hill</a> follows a stream of news reports and/or social media posts and YouTube videos of drivers engaging in extremely risky behavior while testing the so-called self-driving features of their Tesla. In May, Steven Michael Hendrickson,a 35-year-old father of two in Fontana, Calif., died when his Tesla hit an overturned semitruck. Earlier he had posted videos of driving without his hands on the wheel of his car on the freeway, but the NHTSA was still investigating the role of Autopilot in the crash.</p><p><blockquote>国会大厦的最新抗议<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HIL\">山丘</a>关注一系列新闻报道和/或社交媒体帖子和YouTube视频，这些视频显示司机在测试特斯拉的所谓自动驾驶功能时做出了极其危险的行为。今年5月，加利福尼亚州丰塔纳市35岁的两个孩子的父亲Steven Michael Hendrickson在他的特斯拉撞上一辆翻倒的半挂卡车时死亡。早些时候，他发布了在高速公路上双手不放在方向盘上驾驶的视频，但NHTSA仍在调查自动驾驶仪在事故中的作用。</blockquote></p><p> “The vehicles that Tesla is producing are driver-assisted systems,” said Bryan Reimer, a research scientist at the MIT Center for Transportation and Logistics. “They are assisting the driver, and the driver needs to maintain vigilance.”</p><p><blockquote>“特斯拉正在生产的车辆是驾驶辅助系统，”麻省理工学院运输和物流中心的研究科学家布莱恩·赖默说。“他们在协助司机，司机需要保持警惕。”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> It is important to note the difference between Tesla’s dual products with misleading names. “Autopilot” is an ADAS system, a highly advanced version of cruise control meant for highway driving that enables “your car to steer, accelerate and brake automatically within its lane under your active supervision, assisting with the most burdensome parts of driving,” according to Tesla’s website. Tesla also offers the “FSD” package, now available by a subscription of $99 to $199 a month, which it describes as “access to a suite of more advanced driver assistance features, designed to provide more active guidance and assisted driving under your active supervision.”</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，特斯拉具有误导性名称的双产品之间的差异。“Autopilot”是一种ADAS系统，是一种高度先进的巡航控制版本，适用于高速公路驾驶，使“您的汽车能够在您的主动监督下在车道内自动转向、加速和制动，协助驾驶中最繁重的部分”。特斯拉的网站。特斯拉还提供“FSD”套餐，现在每月订阅费用为99至199美元，其将其描述为“访问一套更先进的驾驶员辅助功能，旨在在您的主动监督下提供更主动的指导和辅助驾驶。”</blockquote></p><p> If only Musk described these systems in a similar manner to the official website. In analyst conference calls and in Tesla’s multi-hour long presentations to its fan base, Musk has been proclaiming that with this software, full autonomy is around the corner.</p><p><blockquote>要是马斯克用和官网类似的方式描述这些系统就好了。在评级分析师会议上以及特斯拉向其粉丝群进行的长达数小时的演示中，马斯克一直宣称，有了这款软件，完全自主指日可待。</blockquote></p><p> “We&nbsp;basically&nbsp;have&nbsp;to&nbsp;solve&nbsp;real-world vision AI and we are,” he said in an earnings call in April. “And the key to solving this is also having some massive data set. So just having well over <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> million cars on the road that are collecting data… But I am highly confident that we&nbsp;will&nbsp;get&nbsp;this&nbsp;done.”</p><p><blockquote>“我们基本上必须解决现实世界的视觉人工智能，我们确实做到了，”他在4月份的财报看涨期权上表示。“解决这个问题的关键还在于拥有一些大规模的数据集。所以只要有足够的数据集<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>道路上有数百万辆汽车正在收集数据……但我非常有信心我们能够完成这项工作。”</blockquote></p><p> But for all of Musk’s bluster and huge fan base, investors are starting to note that the company’s tactics involving full self-driving technology are dangerous, as opposed to the other companies that are testing autonomous vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>但尽管马斯克夸夸其谈，拥有庞大的粉丝群，但投资者开始注意到，与其他正在测试自动驾驶汽车的公司相比，该公司涉及全自动驾驶技术的策略是危险的。</blockquote></p><p> For example, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Alphabet</a> Inc.’sGOOGGOOGLWaymo, the company with the most hours of autonomous vehicle driving, is currently operating a small scale robotaxi service in parts of Arizona around Phoenix that are not densely populated, without human drivers. It is the only one of its kind in the U.S. In California, Waymo has permits from the DMV to conduct AV testing with a human driver behind the wheel.</p><p><blockquote>例如，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Alphabet</a>Inc.旗下的GOOGGOOGLWaymo是自动驾驶汽车时间最长的公司，目前正在亚利桑那州凤凰城周围人口不稠密的地区运营小规模机器人出租车服务，没有人类司机。这是美国唯一一家此类公司。在加利福尼亚州，Waymo获得了DMV的许可，可以在人类驾驶员驾驶的情况下进行AV测试。</blockquote></p><p> “Waymo cannot just start selling their AVs to anyone, and they can’t just drive them on the roadway, our regulatory system does not allow for that,” Talbott of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMSWA\">American</a> University said. “You can test them but no publicly available self-driving car is on the market for purchase because it doesn’t exist.”</p><p><blockquote>“Waymo不能开始向任何人出售他们的自动驾驶汽车，他们也不能只是在道路上驾驶它们，我们的监管体系不允许这样做，”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMSWA\">美国的</a>大学表示。“你可以测试它们，但市场上没有公开的自动驾驶汽车可供购买，因为它不存在。”</blockquote></p><p> With FSD testing being done in the real world with untrained drivers, Tesla is conducting the equivalent of clinical trials of a new drug without any professional hourly or daily monitoring of the patient.</p><p><blockquote>随着FSD测试在现实世界中由未经训练的驾驶员进行，特斯拉正在进行相当于新药临床试验的试验，而无需对患者进行任何专业的每小时或每天监测。</blockquote></p><p> “They are calling it beta, it is a beta system, they are exposing people to substantive risk,” Reimer said.</p><p><blockquote>“他们称之为测试版，这是一个测试版系统，他们让人们面临重大风险，”赖默说。</blockquote></p><p> Musk’s latest bot is yet another distraction, much like the flame thrower in 2018 sold by his Boring Company, his unwanted assistance to try and help the boys stuck in a cave in Thailand, and other projects. Investors should not let these distractions get in the way of the real issues that Musk seems to be refusing to acknowledge as he continues to oversell his company’s technological abilities.</p><p><blockquote>马斯克的最新机器人是另一个干扰，就像他的Boring Company在2018年出售的火焰喷射器、他试图帮助被困在泰国洞穴中的男孩的不必要的帮助以及其他项目一样。投资者不应该让这些干扰妨碍马斯克似乎拒绝承认的真正问题，因为他继续夸大公司的技术能力。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ignore-elon-musks-dancing-distraction-and-face-the-dangers-ahead-for-tesla-11629488276?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ignore-elon-musks-dancing-distraction-and-face-the-dangers-ahead-for-tesla-11629488276?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1107075259","content_text":"Investigations into automated-driving systems and the statements made about it by the electric-car company and its chief executive deserve more attention than their latest fanciful technology aspirations and timelines.\n\nInvestors should ignore Elon Musk’s latest dance and focus instead on the growing issues Tesla is facing because of its chief executive’s exaggerated claims about his company’s technological capabilities.\nAt Tesla Motors’s AI Day late Thursday, self-named Technoking Musk said that the company is working on a humanoid robot as “Tesla is arguably the world’s biggest robotics company because our cars are like semi-sentient robots on wheels.”\nAfter a white-suited human did a brief dance for the believers in the audience and on a livestream, Musk came on the stage and showed only computer-generated images of a 5’8″ humanoid robot thathe claimed Tesla will produce a prototype of sometime next year. He inferred it could be used for manufacturing or boring repetitive tasks, like grocery shopping and will have a full self-driving computer.\nAs always with Musk and Tesla, the timeline is highly doubtful to anyone with basic knowledge of the technology in question. Fortunately, the antics did not fool everyone on Wall Street, some of whom may be getting tired of his shenanigans.\n“Unfortunately, as we have seen with robotaxis and other future sci-fi projects for Musk, we view this Tesla Bot as an absolute head scratcher that will further agitate investors at a time the Street is showing growing concern around rising EV competition and safety issues for Tesla,” said Dan Ives, a Wedbush Securities analyst, in a note to clients early Friday.\nThe safety issues Ives mentions are what investors should be attuned to right now, because it appears the government is finally stepping up and taking note of a problem this column has long pointed out: Musk repeatedly oversells the current and near-term potential for his automotive autonomy advanced technology.\nJust a day before Thursday’s “AI Day” spectacle,two U.S. senators asked the Federal Trade Commission to investigate both Tesla’s and Musk’s “repeated overstatements of their vehicles’ capabilities”in regards to the marketing of Tesla’s “Full Self Driving” product. Tesla charges thousands of dollars at purchase (or as little as $100 a month) for software that is nowhere near full self-driving, a practice that has already led toa recent review by California Department of Motor Vehiclesanda German ruling that Tesla could not market the product as such.\n“Language matters,” said Selika Talbott, a professorial lecturer in the department of public administration and policy at American University in Washington DC. “The use of this terminology is false and misleading and unsafe for the general public. The notions of assisted driving and autonomous vehicles and their differences are not fully understood by the general public.”\n“Tesla has highly assisted technology in their vehicle, but at no point should anyone behind the wheel think that vehicle can drive itself, because it can’t,” Talbott said.\nThe week began with news of a federal investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot system after cars using the feature crashed into stopped emergency vehicles.The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration is looking into a series of crashesby Tesla cars that had the advanced driver-assistance system enabled. NHTSA said that itopened an inquiry into 11 Tesla crashesthat involved emergency vehicles, while still investigating a series of collisions involving cars enabled with Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) and tractor-trailers.\nThe latest outcry on Capitol Hill follows a stream of news reports and/or social media posts and YouTube videos of drivers engaging in extremely risky behavior while testing the so-called self-driving features of their Tesla. In May, Steven Michael Hendrickson,a 35-year-old father of two in Fontana, Calif., died when his Tesla hit an overturned semitruck. Earlier he had posted videos of driving without his hands on the wheel of his car on the freeway, but the NHTSA was still investigating the role of Autopilot in the crash.\n“The vehicles that Tesla is producing are driver-assisted systems,” said Bryan Reimer, a research scientist at the MIT Center for Transportation and Logistics. “They are assisting the driver, and the driver needs to maintain vigilance.”\nIt is important to note the difference between Tesla’s dual products with misleading names. “Autopilot” is an ADAS system, a highly advanced version of cruise control meant for highway driving that enables “your car to steer, accelerate and brake automatically within its lane under your active supervision, assisting with the most burdensome parts of driving,” according to Tesla’s website. Tesla also offers the “FSD” package, now available by a subscription of $99 to $199 a month, which it describes as “access to a suite of more advanced driver assistance features, designed to provide more active guidance and assisted driving under your active supervision.”\nIf only Musk described these systems in a similar manner to the official website. In analyst conference calls and in Tesla’s multi-hour long presentations to its fan base, Musk has been proclaiming that with this software, full autonomy is around the corner.\n“We basically have to solve real-world vision AI and we are,” he said in an earnings call in April. “And the key to solving this is also having some massive data set. So just having well over one million cars on the road that are collecting data… But I am highly confident that we will get this done.”\nBut for all of Musk’s bluster and huge fan base, investors are starting to note that the company’s tactics involving full self-driving technology are dangerous, as opposed to the other companies that are testing autonomous vehicles.\nFor example, Alphabet Inc.’sGOOGGOOGLWaymo, the company with the most hours of autonomous vehicle driving, is currently operating a small scale robotaxi service in parts of Arizona around Phoenix that are not densely populated, without human drivers. It is the only one of its kind in the U.S. In California, Waymo has permits from the DMV to conduct AV testing with a human driver behind the wheel.\n“Waymo cannot just start selling their AVs to anyone, and they can’t just drive them on the roadway, our regulatory system does not allow for that,” Talbott of American University said. “You can test them but no publicly available self-driving car is on the market for purchase because it doesn’t exist.”\nWith FSD testing being done in the real world with untrained drivers, Tesla is conducting the equivalent of clinical trials of a new drug without any professional hourly or daily monitoring of the patient.\n“They are calling it beta, it is a beta system, they are exposing people to substantive risk,” Reimer said.\nMusk’s latest bot is yet another distraction, much like the flame thrower in 2018 sold by his Boring Company, his unwanted assistance to try and help the boys stuck in a cave in Thailand, and other projects. Investors should not let these distractions get in the way of the real issues that Musk seems to be refusing to acknowledge as he continues to oversell his company’s technological abilities.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":761,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":832184602,"gmtCreate":1629598650206,"gmtModify":1633683864902,"author":{"id":"4090570965971460","authorId":"4090570965971460","name":"KeN3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffc770a2d3626a3e029ba2c461aac13d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090570965971460","idStr":"4090570965971460"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Prices for these companies shares have risen exponentially... but is there still room for growth?","listText":"Prices for these companies shares have risen exponentially... but is there still room for growth?","text":"Prices for these companies shares have risen exponentially... but is there still room for growth?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/832184602","repostId":"2161745179","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":752,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":804539626,"gmtCreate":1627963001565,"gmtModify":1633754819790,"author":{"id":"4090570965971460","authorId":"4090570965971460","name":"KeN3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffc770a2d3626a3e029ba2c461aac13d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090570965971460","idStr":"4090570965971460"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Is it over priced now to enter the market?","listText":"Is it over priced now to enter the market?","text":"Is it over priced now to enter the market?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/804539626","repostId":"1121927855","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":339,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":804533835,"gmtCreate":1627963066827,"gmtModify":1633754819073,"author":{"id":"4090570965971460","authorId":"4090570965971460","name":"KeN3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffc770a2d3626a3e029ba2c461aac13d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090570965971460","idStr":"4090570965971460"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"When will be the right time to enter?","listText":"When will be the right time to enter?","text":"When will be the right time to enter?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/804533835","repostId":"2155915751","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":418,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":829635229,"gmtCreate":1633496502532,"gmtModify":1633497112727,"author":{"id":"4090570965971460","authorId":"4090570965971460","name":"KeN3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffc770a2d3626a3e029ba2c461aac13d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090570965971460","idStr":"4090570965971460"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Stocks to look out for","listText":"Stocks to look out for","text":"Stocks to look out for","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/829635229","repostId":"1123518290","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2392,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":880126929,"gmtCreate":1631026175861,"gmtModify":1632904489498,"author":{"id":"4090570965971460","authorId":"4090570965971460","name":"KeN3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffc770a2d3626a3e029ba2c461aac13d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090570965971460","idStr":"4090570965971460"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Not invested enough before this rise. Will need to buy in more to see the significance&nbsp;","listText":"Not invested enough before this rise. Will need to buy in more to see the significance&nbsp;","text":"Not invested enough before this rise. Will need to buy in more to see the significance","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/880126929","repostId":"1148433063","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1425,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":897641925,"gmtCreate":1628916176267,"gmtModify":1633688502893,"author":{"id":"4090570965971460","authorId":"4090570965971460","name":"KeN3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffc770a2d3626a3e029ba2c461aac13d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090570965971460","idStr":"4090570965971460"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Gotta keep eyes on it","listText":"Gotta keep eyes on it","text":"Gotta keep eyes on it","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/897641925","repostId":"2159655218","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":534,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":890393647,"gmtCreate":1628081801889,"gmtModify":1633753795723,"author":{"id":"4090570965971460","authorId":"4090570965971460","name":"KeN3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffc770a2d3626a3e029ba2c461aac13d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090570965971460","idStr":"4090570965971460"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Anyone bought into these shares yet?","listText":"Anyone bought into these shares yet?","text":"Anyone bought into these shares yet?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/890393647","repostId":"1124757232","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1124757232","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628045612,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1124757232?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-04 10:53","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 COVID Stocks That Could Soar Higher<blockquote>3只可能飙升的新冠股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124757232","media":"The Motley Fool","summary":"Here's why Pfizer, Inari Medical, and Novavax shares might be more valuable in 2021.\nKey Points\n\nPfi","content":"<p><b><i>Here's why Pfizer, Inari Medical, and Novavax shares might be more valuable in 2021.</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>这就是为什么辉瑞、Inari Medical和Novavax的股票在2021年可能更有价值。</i></b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Key Points</b></p><p><blockquote><b>要点</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Pfizer might surprise to the upside.</li>  <li>Inari Medical is growing like gangbusters.</li>  <li>Novavax's vaccine might be an important booster shot as the COVID-19 virus mutates.</li> </ul> COVID-19 and the international lockdown crashed the world economy in 2020. Many people have already been vaccinated and are looking forward to normalization. But COVID is mutating, and the new delta variant might toss a wrench into the world's reopening. How might investors protect themselves?</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>辉瑞可能会带来惊喜。</li><li>伊那里医疗公司正在飞速发展。</li><li>随着COVID-19病毒的变异，Novavax的疫苗可能是一剂重要的加强针。</li></ul>2020年，新冠肺炎和国际封锁导致世界经济崩溃。许多人已经接种了疫苗，并期待正常化。但COVID正在变异，新的德尔塔变异毒株可能会给世界的重新开放带来麻烦。投资者如何保护自己？</blockquote></p><p> A panel of Motley Fool contributors offers three ideas for healthcare stocks that will zoom higher in 2021, even if COVID takes a turn for the worse. Read more to see why you might want to buy shares of&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">Pfizer</a></b>,&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NARI\">Inari Medical, Inc.</a></b>, and&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVAX\">Novavax</a></b>.</p><p><blockquote>Motley Fool撰稿人小组为医疗保健股提供了三个想法，即使新冠疫情形势恶化，这些股票也将在2021年飙升。阅读更多内容，了解为什么您可能想购买<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">辉瑞</a></b>, <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NARI\">伊那里医疗公司。</a></b>，和<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVAX\">Novavax</a></b>.</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3ed6a343e35e121aafbaa2b30134955\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1333\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <h3><b>Pfizer: More room to run</b></h3> <b>George Budwell</b>&nbsp;<b>(Pfizer):</b>&nbsp;American pharma titan Pfizer might not sound like a sexy pick among the present cohort of COVID vaccine players. Wall Street's current consensus has Comirnaty, the drugmaker's vaccine -- produced in partnership with&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BNTX\">BioNTech SE</a>&nbsp;-- losing steam from a sales perspective starting in 2022.</p><p><blockquote><h3><b>辉瑞：更多运行空间</b></h3><b>乔治·布德维尔</b> <b>（辉瑞）：</b>在目前的新冠疫苗公司中，美国制药巨头辉瑞听起来可能不是一个性感的选择。华尔街目前的共识是制药商Comirnaty的疫苗——与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BNTX\">BioNTech SE</a>——从2022年开始，从销售角度来看失去动力。</blockquote></p><p> Because of the delta variant, however, Comirnaty's commercial life could turn out to be much longer than originally expected. And while the emergence of the highly transmissible variant is obviously terrible news for society at large, Pfizer and its shareholders are probably going to benefit from this unfortunate development.</p><p><blockquote>然而，由于德尔塔变异毒株，Comirnaty的商业寿命可能会比最初预期的长得多。虽然高传播变种的出现对整个社会来说显然是个坏消息，但辉瑞及其股东可能会从这一不幸的发展中受益。</blockquote></p><p> There are two clear reasons to think that Pfizer's stock could move higher on the delta issue. First and foremost, the company&nbsp;announced&nbsp;that an Emergency Use Authorization submission for a booster third shot might happen as soon as this month. Second, Pfizer plans to start clinical trials for a delta-specific version of the vaccine this month.</p><p><blockquote>有两个明显的理由认为辉瑞的股价可能会因达美航空问题而走高。首先，该公司宣布，最早可能在本月提交第三次加强注射的紧急使用授权。其次，辉瑞计划本月启动德尔塔特异性版本疫苗的临床试验。</blockquote></p><p> Although the Food and Drug Administration and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have both recently downplayed the need for booster shots, Pfizer has already put forth a compelling case for a third jab in response to the rampant spread of the delta variant and the waning efficacy of Comirnaty 6 to 12 months following full vaccination.</p><p><blockquote>尽管美国食品药品监督管理局和疾病控制与预防中心最近都淡化了加强注射的必要性，但辉瑞已经提出了第三次注射的令人信服的理由，以应对德尔塔变异毒株的猖獗传播和Comirnaty在完全接种疫苗后6至12个月的疗效减弱。</blockquote></p><p> The big picture for investors is that Pfizer's 2022 revenue might jump by as much as 9.7% compared to 2021 -- that is, if a booster shot is indeed approved and the company also successfully develops a delta-specific vaccine. By contrast, Wall Street currently has the drugmaker's top line falling by 14.8% next year relative to 2021.</p><p><blockquote>对于投资者来说，总体情况是，辉瑞2022年的收入可能比2021年增长9.7%——也就是说，如果加强注射确实获得批准，并且该公司还成功开发了delta特异性疫苗。相比之下，华尔街目前预计该制药商明年的营收将比2021年下降14.8%。</blockquote></p><p> Where is Pfizer's stock possibly headed? If all the pieces fall into place on the vaccine front, shares ought to command a $50 handle, from a conservative standpoint. That's roughly a 17% upswing from where the drugmaker's shares presently stand, and that's not even accounting for the company's attractive 3.64% dividend yield at current levels. Put simply, Pfizer's stock would only be trading at approximately 3.5 times 2022 sales if this scenario pans out, which is a rather modest valuation for a&nbsp;dividend-paying&nbsp;big pharma stock.</p><p><blockquote>辉瑞的股票可能走向何方？从保守的角度来看，如果疫苗方面的所有部分都到位，股价应该会达到50美元。这比该制药商的股价目前上涨了大约17%，甚至还没有考虑到该公司当前水平上颇具吸引力的3.64%股息收益率。简而言之，如果这种情况实现，辉瑞的股票交易价格将仅为2022年销售额的约3.5倍，对于派息的大型制药股来说，这是一个相当适中的估值。</blockquote></p><p> <h3><b>Inari Medical: Skyrocketing Sales</b></h3> <b>Patrick Bafuma</b>&nbsp;<b>(Inari Medical):</b>&nbsp;If you are looking for a stock with staying power after tailwinds from the pandemic subside, look to Inari Medical. There were 108,000 new COVID cases on July 27, 2021 -- the most since February 5, 2021, according to&nbsp;<i>The New York Times</i>&nbsp;-- and that number was up over eight times the seven-day average at the start of July. To make things even worse, COVID not only causes difficulty breathing but also more than triples a patient's risk of disabling and potentially life-threatening blood clots. And we're still not sure if being vaccinated fully mitigates the risk of blood clots when a patient has an asymptomatic or a mild COVID infection.</p><p><blockquote><h3><b>伊那里医疗：销售额暴涨</b></h3><b>帕特里克·巴富马</b> <b>（伊那里医疗）：</b>如果您正在寻找一只在大流行的顺风消退后具有持久力的股票，请关注伊那里医疗。数据显示，2021年7月27日新增108,000例新冠病例，为2021年2月5日以来最多<i>纽约时报</i>——这个数字是7月初7天平均水平的八倍多。更糟糕的是，COVID不仅会导致呼吸困难，还会使患者患致残和可能危及生命的血栓的风险增加两倍以上。我们仍然不确定当患者无症状或轻度COVID感染时，接种疫苗是否能完全降低血栓的风险。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> This seems like a good setup for a commercial-stage med-tech company that has developed minimally invasive products designed to remove large blood clots without the need for powerful clot-busting drugs. Through the use of its ClotTriever and FlowTriever devices, Inari has treated over 25,000 patients so far. Clinicians performed approximately 5,500 procedures with the company's devices in the first quarter of 2021,&nbsp;up 130% from the same quarter last year&nbsp;and about 20% higher than the fourth quarter of 2020. With about 12% of admitted COVID patients developing blood clots, and about 35,000 COVID hospitalizations in the U.S. (and rising) as of July 27, according to<i>The Times</i>, Inari is likely to see an uptick in eligible cases.</p><p><blockquote>对于一家商业阶段的医疗技术公司来说，这似乎是一个很好的设置，该公司开发了微创产品，旨在消除大血凝块，而不需要强大的血栓破坏药物。通过使用ClotTriever和FlowTriever设备，伊那里迄今已治疗了25,000多名患者。2021年第一季度，临床医生使用该公司的设备进行了约5,500次手术，比去年同季度增长130%，比2020年第四季度增长约20%。根据数据，截至7月27日，美国约有12%的新冠肺炎患者出现血栓，约有35,000人因新冠肺炎住院（并且还在增加）<i>纽约时报</i>，伊那里可能会看到符合条件的病例增加。</blockquote></p><p> Not to mention the company's results thus far for blood clots in the lung are spectacular:</p><p><blockquote>更不用说该公司迄今为止在肺部血栓方面的结果非常惊人：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>With the historic 30-day mortality rate of intermediate and high-risk blood clots in the lungs at 9.7%, Inari's 0.4% 30-day mortality rate is impressive.</li>  <li>There's a decreased 30-day readmission rate of 6.7% versus 24.4% with the usual care.</li>  <li>Major adverse events within 48 hours occur at only a 1.3% rate.</li>  <li>No ICU stays are required after the procedure.</li> </ul> Add it all up, and Inari's retrieval device seems like an obvious choice.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>由于肺部中高风险血栓的历史30天死亡率为9.7%，伊那里0.4%的30天死亡率令人印象深刻。</li><li>30天再入院率降低了6.7%，而常规护理为24.4%。</li><li>48小时内的主要不良事件发生率仅为1.3%。</li><li>手术后不需要住ICU。</li></ul>所有这些加起来，伊那里的检索设备似乎是一个显而易见的选择。</blockquote></p><p> The company grew first-quarter revenue at 113% year over year, and&nbsp;18% sequentially, and had gross margins of 91.9% for the first quarter of 2021. So Inari's price-to-sales ratio of 18 makes it a growth stock on sale.</p><p><blockquote>该公司第一季度收入同比增长113%，环比增长18%，2021年第一季度毛利率为91.9%。因此，伊那里的市销率为18，使其成为一只正在出售的成长型股票。</blockquote></p><p> Inari has&nbsp;less than 5% penetrationin the $3.8 billion U.S. market, and there's also lots of room to grow in Europe, where it launched earlier this year. That means there are plenty of opportunities for this $4.5-billion market cap company. While COVID has affected many elective and semi-elective procedures, it has clearly not slowed Inari, and it could even accelerate its uptake.</p><p><blockquote>Inari在价值38亿美元的美国市场的渗透率不到5%，今年早些时候在欧洲推出的市场也有很大的增长空间。这意味着这家市值45亿美元的公司有很多机会。虽然COVID影响了许多选择性和半选择性程序，但它显然没有减缓伊那里，甚至可能加速其吸收。</blockquote></p><p> <h3><b>Novavax: How high can it go?</b></h3> <b>Taylor Carmichael</b>&nbsp;<b>(Novavax):</b>&nbsp;The vaccine&nbsp;biotech&nbsp;Novavax had an amazing 2020, with its share price running up&nbsp;2,700%&nbsp;on optimism for its COVID vaccine. While the company has yet to file for an Emergency Use Authorization, it expects to do so in this quarter. So far in 2021, the stock is up 60%.</p><p><blockquote><h3><b>Novavax：能涨到多高？</b></h3><b>泰勒·卡迈克尔</b> <b>（诺瓦瓦克斯）：</b>疫苗生物技术公司Novavax在2020年表现出色，由于对其COVID疫苗的乐观情绪，其股价上涨了2700%。虽然该公司尚未申请紧急使用授权，但预计将在本季度申请。2021年迄今为止，该股已上涨60%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e7829d99a76c48579ba01c6e55fe14f\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"449\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>NVAX DATA BY YCHARTS.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>YCHARTS提供的NVAX数据。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Positive phase 3 data for the COVID-19 vaccine sent the stock soaring early in the year, but the share price has come back down to earth as the company has suffered delays getting its vaccine to market. First there was a shortage of raw materials necessary to make the vaccine. Now the company has to prove that its various contract manufacturing facilities will keep the vaccine quality consistent across all the sites.</p><p><blockquote>COVID-19疫苗第三阶段的积极数据导致该股在今年年初飙升，但由于该公司的疫苗上市延迟，股价已经回落。首先，制造疫苗所需的原材料短缺。现在，该公司必须证明其各种合同生产设施将保持所有地点的疫苗质量一致。</blockquote></p><p> Despite these delays, long-term investors have reasons to be bullish. Manufacturing is scaling up, with production rates expected to hit 100 million doses a month by the end of the third quarter, and 150 million doses a month by December. While many people in the U.S. have already been vaccinated, the opportunity in the rest of the world is sizable. Novavax has pre-sold 1.1 billion doses to COVAX (an international vaccine consortium), and has contracted to supply hundreds of millions of doses around the world.</p><p><blockquote>尽管存在这些延迟，但长期投资者有理由看涨。制造业正在扩大规模，预计到第三季度末，生产率将达到每月1亿剂，到12月将达到每月1.5亿剂。虽然美国的许多人已经接种了疫苗，但世界其他地方的机会相当大。Novavax已向COVAX（国际疫苗联盟）预售了11亿剂疫苗，并已签约在全球范围内供应数亿剂疫苗。</blockquote></p><p> In the U.S., the Novavax vaccine might primarily be used as a&nbsp;booster shot&nbsp;for people who have already been vaccinated. \"They may be really the right ones for boosters,\" Dr. Luciana Borio, the acting chief scientist at the F.D.A. from 2015 to 2017, told&nbsp;<i>The New York Times</i>.</p><p><blockquote>在美国，Novavax疫苗可能主要用于已经接种疫苗的人的加强注射。FDA代理首席科学家露丝安娜·博里奥(Luciana Borio)博士表示：“它们可能确实适合加强剂。”从2015年到2017年，告诉<i>纽约时报</i>.</blockquote></p><p> Down the road, Novavax plans on combining its COVID vaccine with its flu vaccine, making aone-shot regimen. While COVID does not mutate as quickly as the flu, we've seen several mutating strains over the last year. It's likely that we will need to vaccinate more than once in the years ahead.</p><p><blockquote>未来，Novavax计划将其新冠疫苗与流感疫苗结合起来，形成一种一次性疗法。虽然COVID的变异速度不如流感，但我们在过去一年中已经看到了几种变异毒株。在未来的几年里，我们很可能需要不止一次接种疫苗。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 COVID Stocks That Could Soar Higher<blockquote>3只可能飙升的新冠股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 COVID Stocks That Could Soar Higher<blockquote>3只可能飙升的新冠股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-04 10:53</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b><i>Here's why Pfizer, Inari Medical, and Novavax shares might be more valuable in 2021.</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>这就是为什么辉瑞、Inari Medical和Novavax的股票在2021年可能更有价值。</i></b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Key Points</b></p><p><blockquote><b>要点</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Pfizer might surprise to the upside.</li>  <li>Inari Medical is growing like gangbusters.</li>  <li>Novavax's vaccine might be an important booster shot as the COVID-19 virus mutates.</li> </ul> COVID-19 and the international lockdown crashed the world economy in 2020. Many people have already been vaccinated and are looking forward to normalization. But COVID is mutating, and the new delta variant might toss a wrench into the world's reopening. How might investors protect themselves?</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>辉瑞可能会带来惊喜。</li><li>伊那里医疗公司正在飞速发展。</li><li>随着COVID-19病毒的变异，Novavax的疫苗可能是一剂重要的加强针。</li></ul>2020年，新冠肺炎和国际封锁导致世界经济崩溃。许多人已经接种了疫苗，并期待正常化。但COVID正在变异，新的德尔塔变异毒株可能会给世界的重新开放带来麻烦。投资者如何保护自己？</blockquote></p><p> A panel of Motley Fool contributors offers three ideas for healthcare stocks that will zoom higher in 2021, even if COVID takes a turn for the worse. Read more to see why you might want to buy shares of&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">Pfizer</a></b>,&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NARI\">Inari Medical, Inc.</a></b>, and&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVAX\">Novavax</a></b>.</p><p><blockquote>Motley Fool撰稿人小组为医疗保健股提供了三个想法，即使新冠疫情形势恶化，这些股票也将在2021年飙升。阅读更多内容，了解为什么您可能想购买<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">辉瑞</a></b>, <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NARI\">伊那里医疗公司。</a></b>，和<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVAX\">Novavax</a></b>.</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3ed6a343e35e121aafbaa2b30134955\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1333\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <h3><b>Pfizer: More room to run</b></h3> <b>George Budwell</b>&nbsp;<b>(Pfizer):</b>&nbsp;American pharma titan Pfizer might not sound like a sexy pick among the present cohort of COVID vaccine players. Wall Street's current consensus has Comirnaty, the drugmaker's vaccine -- produced in partnership with&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BNTX\">BioNTech SE</a>&nbsp;-- losing steam from a sales perspective starting in 2022.</p><p><blockquote><h3><b>辉瑞：更多运行空间</b></h3><b>乔治·布德维尔</b> <b>（辉瑞）：</b>在目前的新冠疫苗公司中，美国制药巨头辉瑞听起来可能不是一个性感的选择。华尔街目前的共识是制药商Comirnaty的疫苗——与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BNTX\">BioNTech SE</a>——从2022年开始，从销售角度来看失去动力。</blockquote></p><p> Because of the delta variant, however, Comirnaty's commercial life could turn out to be much longer than originally expected. And while the emergence of the highly transmissible variant is obviously terrible news for society at large, Pfizer and its shareholders are probably going to benefit from this unfortunate development.</p><p><blockquote>然而，由于德尔塔变异毒株，Comirnaty的商业寿命可能会比最初预期的长得多。虽然高传播变种的出现对整个社会来说显然是个坏消息，但辉瑞及其股东可能会从这一不幸的发展中受益。</blockquote></p><p> There are two clear reasons to think that Pfizer's stock could move higher on the delta issue. First and foremost, the company&nbsp;announced&nbsp;that an Emergency Use Authorization submission for a booster third shot might happen as soon as this month. Second, Pfizer plans to start clinical trials for a delta-specific version of the vaccine this month.</p><p><blockquote>有两个明显的理由认为辉瑞的股价可能会因达美航空问题而走高。首先，该公司宣布，最早可能在本月提交第三次加强注射的紧急使用授权。其次，辉瑞计划本月启动德尔塔特异性版本疫苗的临床试验。</blockquote></p><p> Although the Food and Drug Administration and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have both recently downplayed the need for booster shots, Pfizer has already put forth a compelling case for a third jab in response to the rampant spread of the delta variant and the waning efficacy of Comirnaty 6 to 12 months following full vaccination.</p><p><blockquote>尽管美国食品药品监督管理局和疾病控制与预防中心最近都淡化了加强注射的必要性，但辉瑞已经提出了第三次注射的令人信服的理由，以应对德尔塔变异毒株的猖獗传播和Comirnaty在完全接种疫苗后6至12个月的疗效减弱。</blockquote></p><p> The big picture for investors is that Pfizer's 2022 revenue might jump by as much as 9.7% compared to 2021 -- that is, if a booster shot is indeed approved and the company also successfully develops a delta-specific vaccine. By contrast, Wall Street currently has the drugmaker's top line falling by 14.8% next year relative to 2021.</p><p><blockquote>对于投资者来说，总体情况是，辉瑞2022年的收入可能比2021年增长9.7%——也就是说，如果加强注射确实获得批准，并且该公司还成功开发了delta特异性疫苗。相比之下，华尔街目前预计该制药商明年的营收将比2021年下降14.8%。</blockquote></p><p> Where is Pfizer's stock possibly headed? If all the pieces fall into place on the vaccine front, shares ought to command a $50 handle, from a conservative standpoint. That's roughly a 17% upswing from where the drugmaker's shares presently stand, and that's not even accounting for the company's attractive 3.64% dividend yield at current levels. Put simply, Pfizer's stock would only be trading at approximately 3.5 times 2022 sales if this scenario pans out, which is a rather modest valuation for a&nbsp;dividend-paying&nbsp;big pharma stock.</p><p><blockquote>辉瑞的股票可能走向何方？从保守的角度来看，如果疫苗方面的所有部分都到位，股价应该会达到50美元。这比该制药商的股价目前上涨了大约17%，甚至还没有考虑到该公司当前水平上颇具吸引力的3.64%股息收益率。简而言之，如果这种情况实现，辉瑞的股票交易价格将仅为2022年销售额的约3.5倍，对于派息的大型制药股来说，这是一个相当适中的估值。</blockquote></p><p> <h3><b>Inari Medical: Skyrocketing Sales</b></h3> <b>Patrick Bafuma</b>&nbsp;<b>(Inari Medical):</b>&nbsp;If you are looking for a stock with staying power after tailwinds from the pandemic subside, look to Inari Medical. There were 108,000 new COVID cases on July 27, 2021 -- the most since February 5, 2021, according to&nbsp;<i>The New York Times</i>&nbsp;-- and that number was up over eight times the seven-day average at the start of July. To make things even worse, COVID not only causes difficulty breathing but also more than triples a patient's risk of disabling and potentially life-threatening blood clots. And we're still not sure if being vaccinated fully mitigates the risk of blood clots when a patient has an asymptomatic or a mild COVID infection.</p><p><blockquote><h3><b>伊那里医疗：销售额暴涨</b></h3><b>帕特里克·巴富马</b> <b>（伊那里医疗）：</b>如果您正在寻找一只在大流行的顺风消退后具有持久力的股票，请关注伊那里医疗。数据显示，2021年7月27日新增108,000例新冠病例，为2021年2月5日以来最多<i>纽约时报</i>——这个数字是7月初7天平均水平的八倍多。更糟糕的是，COVID不仅会导致呼吸困难，还会使患者患致残和可能危及生命的血栓的风险增加两倍以上。我们仍然不确定当患者无症状或轻度COVID感染时，接种疫苗是否能完全降低血栓的风险。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> This seems like a good setup for a commercial-stage med-tech company that has developed minimally invasive products designed to remove large blood clots without the need for powerful clot-busting drugs. Through the use of its ClotTriever and FlowTriever devices, Inari has treated over 25,000 patients so far. Clinicians performed approximately 5,500 procedures with the company's devices in the first quarter of 2021,&nbsp;up 130% from the same quarter last year&nbsp;and about 20% higher than the fourth quarter of 2020. With about 12% of admitted COVID patients developing blood clots, and about 35,000 COVID hospitalizations in the U.S. (and rising) as of July 27, according to<i>The Times</i>, Inari is likely to see an uptick in eligible cases.</p><p><blockquote>对于一家商业阶段的医疗技术公司来说，这似乎是一个很好的设置，该公司开发了微创产品，旨在消除大血凝块，而不需要强大的血栓破坏药物。通过使用ClotTriever和FlowTriever设备，伊那里迄今已治疗了25,000多名患者。2021年第一季度，临床医生使用该公司的设备进行了约5,500次手术，比去年同季度增长130%，比2020年第四季度增长约20%。根据数据，截至7月27日，美国约有12%的新冠肺炎患者出现血栓，约有35,000人因新冠肺炎住院（并且还在增加）<i>纽约时报</i>，伊那里可能会看到符合条件的病例增加。</blockquote></p><p> Not to mention the company's results thus far for blood clots in the lung are spectacular:</p><p><blockquote>更不用说该公司迄今为止在肺部血栓方面的结果非常惊人：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>With the historic 30-day mortality rate of intermediate and high-risk blood clots in the lungs at 9.7%, Inari's 0.4% 30-day mortality rate is impressive.</li>  <li>There's a decreased 30-day readmission rate of 6.7% versus 24.4% with the usual care.</li>  <li>Major adverse events within 48 hours occur at only a 1.3% rate.</li>  <li>No ICU stays are required after the procedure.</li> </ul> Add it all up, and Inari's retrieval device seems like an obvious choice.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>由于肺部中高风险血栓的历史30天死亡率为9.7%，伊那里0.4%的30天死亡率令人印象深刻。</li><li>30天再入院率降低了6.7%，而常规护理为24.4%。</li><li>48小时内的主要不良事件发生率仅为1.3%。</li><li>手术后不需要住ICU。</li></ul>所有这些加起来，伊那里的检索设备似乎是一个显而易见的选择。</blockquote></p><p> The company grew first-quarter revenue at 113% year over year, and&nbsp;18% sequentially, and had gross margins of 91.9% for the first quarter of 2021. So Inari's price-to-sales ratio of 18 makes it a growth stock on sale.</p><p><blockquote>该公司第一季度收入同比增长113%，环比增长18%，2021年第一季度毛利率为91.9%。因此，伊那里的市销率为18，使其成为一只正在出售的成长型股票。</blockquote></p><p> Inari has&nbsp;less than 5% penetrationin the $3.8 billion U.S. market, and there's also lots of room to grow in Europe, where it launched earlier this year. That means there are plenty of opportunities for this $4.5-billion market cap company. While COVID has affected many elective and semi-elective procedures, it has clearly not slowed Inari, and it could even accelerate its uptake.</p><p><blockquote>Inari在价值38亿美元的美国市场的渗透率不到5%，今年早些时候在欧洲推出的市场也有很大的增长空间。这意味着这家市值45亿美元的公司有很多机会。虽然COVID影响了许多选择性和半选择性程序，但它显然没有减缓伊那里，甚至可能加速其吸收。</blockquote></p><p> <h3><b>Novavax: How high can it go?</b></h3> <b>Taylor Carmichael</b>&nbsp;<b>(Novavax):</b>&nbsp;The vaccine&nbsp;biotech&nbsp;Novavax had an amazing 2020, with its share price running up&nbsp;2,700%&nbsp;on optimism for its COVID vaccine. While the company has yet to file for an Emergency Use Authorization, it expects to do so in this quarter. So far in 2021, the stock is up 60%.</p><p><blockquote><h3><b>Novavax：能涨到多高？</b></h3><b>泰勒·卡迈克尔</b> <b>（诺瓦瓦克斯）：</b>疫苗生物技术公司Novavax在2020年表现出色，由于对其COVID疫苗的乐观情绪，其股价上涨了2700%。虽然该公司尚未申请紧急使用授权，但预计将在本季度申请。2021年迄今为止，该股已上涨60%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e7829d99a76c48579ba01c6e55fe14f\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"449\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>NVAX DATA BY YCHARTS.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>YCHARTS提供的NVAX数据。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Positive phase 3 data for the COVID-19 vaccine sent the stock soaring early in the year, but the share price has come back down to earth as the company has suffered delays getting its vaccine to market. First there was a shortage of raw materials necessary to make the vaccine. Now the company has to prove that its various contract manufacturing facilities will keep the vaccine quality consistent across all the sites.</p><p><blockquote>COVID-19疫苗第三阶段的积极数据导致该股在今年年初飙升，但由于该公司的疫苗上市延迟，股价已经回落。首先，制造疫苗所需的原材料短缺。现在，该公司必须证明其各种合同生产设施将保持所有地点的疫苗质量一致。</blockquote></p><p> Despite these delays, long-term investors have reasons to be bullish. Manufacturing is scaling up, with production rates expected to hit 100 million doses a month by the end of the third quarter, and 150 million doses a month by December. While many people in the U.S. have already been vaccinated, the opportunity in the rest of the world is sizable. Novavax has pre-sold 1.1 billion doses to COVAX (an international vaccine consortium), and has contracted to supply hundreds of millions of doses around the world.</p><p><blockquote>尽管存在这些延迟，但长期投资者有理由看涨。制造业正在扩大规模，预计到第三季度末，生产率将达到每月1亿剂，到12月将达到每月1.5亿剂。虽然美国的许多人已经接种了疫苗，但世界其他地方的机会相当大。Novavax已向COVAX（国际疫苗联盟）预售了11亿剂疫苗，并已签约在全球范围内供应数亿剂疫苗。</blockquote></p><p> In the U.S., the Novavax vaccine might primarily be used as a&nbsp;booster shot&nbsp;for people who have already been vaccinated. \"They may be really the right ones for boosters,\" Dr. Luciana Borio, the acting chief scientist at the F.D.A. from 2015 to 2017, told&nbsp;<i>The New York Times</i>.</p><p><blockquote>在美国，Novavax疫苗可能主要用于已经接种疫苗的人的加强注射。FDA代理首席科学家露丝安娜·博里奥(Luciana Borio)博士表示：“它们可能确实适合加强剂。”从2015年到2017年，告诉<i>纽约时报</i>.</blockquote></p><p> Down the road, Novavax plans on combining its COVID vaccine with its flu vaccine, making aone-shot regimen. While COVID does not mutate as quickly as the flu, we've seen several mutating strains over the last year. It's likely that we will need to vaccinate more than once in the years ahead.</p><p><blockquote>未来，Novavax计划将其新冠疫苗与流感疫苗结合起来，形成一种一次性疗法。虽然COVID的变异速度不如流感，但我们在过去一年中已经看到了几种变异毒株。在未来的几年里，我们很可能需要不止一次接种疫苗。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/08/03/3-covid-stocks-that-will-soar-higher/\">The Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PFE":"辉瑞","NARI":"Inari Medical, Inc.","NVAX":"诺瓦瓦克斯医药"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/08/03/3-covid-stocks-that-will-soar-higher/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124757232","content_text":"Here's why Pfizer, Inari Medical, and Novavax shares might be more valuable in 2021.\nKey Points\n\nPfizer might surprise to the upside.\nInari Medical is growing like gangbusters.\nNovavax's vaccine might be an important booster shot as the COVID-19 virus mutates.\n\nCOVID-19 and the international lockdown crashed the world economy in 2020. Many people have already been vaccinated and are looking forward to normalization. But COVID is mutating, and the new delta variant might toss a wrench into the world's reopening. How might investors protect themselves?\nA panel of Motley Fool contributors offers three ideas for healthcare stocks that will zoom higher in 2021, even if COVID takes a turn for the worse. Read more to see why you might want to buy shares of Pfizer, Inari Medical, Inc., and Novavax.\nIMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.\nPfizer: More room to run\nGeorge Budwell (Pfizer): American pharma titan Pfizer might not sound like a sexy pick among the present cohort of COVID vaccine players. Wall Street's current consensus has Comirnaty, the drugmaker's vaccine -- produced in partnership with BioNTech SE -- losing steam from a sales perspective starting in 2022.\nBecause of the delta variant, however, Comirnaty's commercial life could turn out to be much longer than originally expected. And while the emergence of the highly transmissible variant is obviously terrible news for society at large, Pfizer and its shareholders are probably going to benefit from this unfortunate development.\nThere are two clear reasons to think that Pfizer's stock could move higher on the delta issue. First and foremost, the company announced that an Emergency Use Authorization submission for a booster third shot might happen as soon as this month. Second, Pfizer plans to start clinical trials for a delta-specific version of the vaccine this month.\nAlthough the Food and Drug Administration and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have both recently downplayed the need for booster shots, Pfizer has already put forth a compelling case for a third jab in response to the rampant spread of the delta variant and the waning efficacy of Comirnaty 6 to 12 months following full vaccination.\nThe big picture for investors is that Pfizer's 2022 revenue might jump by as much as 9.7% compared to 2021 -- that is, if a booster shot is indeed approved and the company also successfully develops a delta-specific vaccine. By contrast, Wall Street currently has the drugmaker's top line falling by 14.8% next year relative to 2021.\nWhere is Pfizer's stock possibly headed? If all the pieces fall into place on the vaccine front, shares ought to command a $50 handle, from a conservative standpoint. That's roughly a 17% upswing from where the drugmaker's shares presently stand, and that's not even accounting for the company's attractive 3.64% dividend yield at current levels. Put simply, Pfizer's stock would only be trading at approximately 3.5 times 2022 sales if this scenario pans out, which is a rather modest valuation for a dividend-paying big pharma stock.\nInari Medical: Skyrocketing Sales\nPatrick Bafuma (Inari Medical): If you are looking for a stock with staying power after tailwinds from the pandemic subside, look to Inari Medical. There were 108,000 new COVID cases on July 27, 2021 -- the most since February 5, 2021, according to The New York Times -- and that number was up over eight times the seven-day average at the start of July. To make things even worse, COVID not only causes difficulty breathing but also more than triples a patient's risk of disabling and potentially life-threatening blood clots. And we're still not sure if being vaccinated fully mitigates the risk of blood clots when a patient has an asymptomatic or a mild COVID infection.\nThis seems like a good setup for a commercial-stage med-tech company that has developed minimally invasive products designed to remove large blood clots without the need for powerful clot-busting drugs. Through the use of its ClotTriever and FlowTriever devices, Inari has treated over 25,000 patients so far. Clinicians performed approximately 5,500 procedures with the company's devices in the first quarter of 2021, up 130% from the same quarter last year and about 20% higher than the fourth quarter of 2020. With about 12% of admitted COVID patients developing blood clots, and about 35,000 COVID hospitalizations in the U.S. (and rising) as of July 27, according toThe Times, Inari is likely to see an uptick in eligible cases.\nNot to mention the company's results thus far for blood clots in the lung are spectacular:\n\nWith the historic 30-day mortality rate of intermediate and high-risk blood clots in the lungs at 9.7%, Inari's 0.4% 30-day mortality rate is impressive.\nThere's a decreased 30-day readmission rate of 6.7% versus 24.4% with the usual care.\nMajor adverse events within 48 hours occur at only a 1.3% rate.\nNo ICU stays are required after the procedure.\n\nAdd it all up, and Inari's retrieval device seems like an obvious choice.\nThe company grew first-quarter revenue at 113% year over year, and 18% sequentially, and had gross margins of 91.9% for the first quarter of 2021. So Inari's price-to-sales ratio of 18 makes it a growth stock on sale.\nInari has less than 5% penetrationin the $3.8 billion U.S. market, and there's also lots of room to grow in Europe, where it launched earlier this year. That means there are plenty of opportunities for this $4.5-billion market cap company. While COVID has affected many elective and semi-elective procedures, it has clearly not slowed Inari, and it could even accelerate its uptake.\nNovavax: How high can it go?\nTaylor Carmichael (Novavax): The vaccine biotech Novavax had an amazing 2020, with its share price running up 2,700% on optimism for its COVID vaccine. While the company has yet to file for an Emergency Use Authorization, it expects to do so in this quarter. So far in 2021, the stock is up 60%.\nNVAX DATA BY YCHARTS.\nPositive phase 3 data for the COVID-19 vaccine sent the stock soaring early in the year, but the share price has come back down to earth as the company has suffered delays getting its vaccine to market. First there was a shortage of raw materials necessary to make the vaccine. Now the company has to prove that its various contract manufacturing facilities will keep the vaccine quality consistent across all the sites.\nDespite these delays, long-term investors have reasons to be bullish. Manufacturing is scaling up, with production rates expected to hit 100 million doses a month by the end of the third quarter, and 150 million doses a month by December. While many people in the U.S. have already been vaccinated, the opportunity in the rest of the world is sizable. Novavax has pre-sold 1.1 billion doses to COVAX (an international vaccine consortium), and has contracted to supply hundreds of millions of doses around the world.\nIn the U.S., the Novavax vaccine might primarily be used as a booster shot for people who have already been vaccinated. \"They may be really the right ones for boosters,\" Dr. Luciana Borio, the acting chief scientist at the F.D.A. from 2015 to 2017, told The New York Times.\nDown the road, Novavax plans on combining its COVID vaccine with its flu vaccine, making aone-shot regimen. While COVID does not mutate as quickly as the flu, we've seen several mutating strains over the last year. It's likely that we will need to vaccinate more than once in the years ahead.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVAX":0.9,"NARI":0.9,"PFE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":373,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":606733543,"gmtCreate":1638926403834,"gmtModify":1638926403969,"author":{"id":"4090570965971460","authorId":"4090570965971460","name":"KeN3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffc770a2d3626a3e029ba2c461aac13d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090570965971460","idStr":"4090570965971460"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Sold too early.. hopefully can buy in again","listText":"Sold too early.. hopefully can buy in again","text":"Sold too early.. hopefully can buy in again","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/606733543","repostId":"1121607111","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121607111","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1638924899,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1121607111?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-08 08:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Apple Stock Climbed to a New All-Time High Today<blockquote>为什么苹果股价今天攀升至历史新高</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121607111","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"What happened\nShares of Apple ( AAPL 3.55% ) rose 3.5% to a record closing price of $171.18 on Tuesd","content":"<p> <b>What happened</b></p><p><blockquote><b>发生了什么</b></blockquote></p><p> Shares of Apple ( AAPL 3.55% ) rose 3.5% to a record closing price of $171.18 on Tuesday, after an analyst placed a price target on the stock that represents a new high among Wall Street's estimates.</p><p><blockquote>苹果(AAPL 3.55%)股价周二上涨3.5%，至创纪录的收盘价171.18美元，此前一位分析师对该股设定了创华尔街预期新高的目标价。</blockquote></p><p> <b>So what</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那又怎样</b></blockquote></p><p> Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty now sees Apple's shares rising to $200, up from a previous forecast of $164. If she's right, investors could enjoy gains of roughly 17% from today's price.</p><p><blockquote>Morgan Stanley分析师Katy Huberty目前预计苹果股价将升至200美元，高于此前预期的164美元。如果她是对的，投资者可以从今天的价格中获得大约17%的收益。</blockquote></p><p> Huberty sees Apple's share price rising as traders seek out high-quality companies that are thought to be safer investments, now that volatility has returned to the financial markets. She also expects Apple's supply chain challenges to abate in the coming quarters, thereby helping to drive iPhone sales higher.</p><p><blockquote>休伯蒂认为，由于金融市场再次出现波动，交易员正在寻找被认为是更安全投资的优质公司，苹果的股价将会上涨。她还预计，苹果的供应链挑战将在未来几个季度减弱，从而有助于推动iPhone销量走高。</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, Huberty argues that Apple's current stock price does not fully reflect its ability to innovate. The tech giant is reportedly developing augmented reality products and self-driving vehicle technology, which could boost demand for its shares among investors ahead of their expected launch dates.</p><p><blockquote>此外，休伯蒂认为，苹果目前的股价并没有完全反映其创新能力。据报道，这家科技巨头正在开发增强现实产品和自动驾驶汽车技术，这可能会在预期上市日期之前提振投资者对其股票的需求。</blockquote></p><p> \"As we get closer to these products becoming a reality, we believe [Apple's] valuation would need to reflect the optionality of these future opportunities,\" Huberty said.</p><p><blockquote>休伯蒂表示：“随着这些产品越来越接近成为现实，我们相信[苹果]的估值需要反映这些未来机会的可选性。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Now what</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现在怎么办</b></blockquote></p><p> Few companies match Apple's track record of innovation. Time and again, Apple has created game-changing products that have gone on to capture the lion's share of their industries' profits.</p><p><blockquote>很少有公司能与苹果的创新记录相媲美。苹果一次又一次地创造出改变游戏规则的产品，并继续占据行业利润的最大份额。</blockquote></p><p> It's entirely possible that Apple could do so again in the realms of augmented reality and autonomous vehicle technology. In turn, it's conceivable that Apple's share price will ascend to Huberty's $200 price target -- and perhaps even higher -- in the coming year.</p><p><blockquote>苹果完全有可能在增强现实和自动驾驶汽车技术领域再次做到这一点。反过来，可以想象，来年苹果的股价将升至休伯蒂200美元的目标价，甚至可能更高。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Apple Stock Climbed to a New All-Time High Today<blockquote>为什么苹果股价今天攀升至历史新高</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Apple Stock Climbed to a New All-Time High Today<blockquote>为什么苹果股价今天攀升至历史新高</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-08 08:54</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p> <b>What happened</b></p><p><blockquote><b>发生了什么</b></blockquote></p><p> Shares of Apple ( AAPL 3.55% ) rose 3.5% to a record closing price of $171.18 on Tuesday, after an analyst placed a price target on the stock that represents a new high among Wall Street's estimates.</p><p><blockquote>苹果(AAPL 3.55%)股价周二上涨3.5%，至创纪录的收盘价171.18美元，此前一位分析师对该股设定了创华尔街预期新高的目标价。</blockquote></p><p> <b>So what</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那又怎样</b></blockquote></p><p> Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty now sees Apple's shares rising to $200, up from a previous forecast of $164. If she's right, investors could enjoy gains of roughly 17% from today's price.</p><p><blockquote>Morgan Stanley分析师Katy Huberty目前预计苹果股价将升至200美元，高于此前预期的164美元。如果她是对的，投资者可以从今天的价格中获得大约17%的收益。</blockquote></p><p> Huberty sees Apple's share price rising as traders seek out high-quality companies that are thought to be safer investments, now that volatility has returned to the financial markets. She also expects Apple's supply chain challenges to abate in the coming quarters, thereby helping to drive iPhone sales higher.</p><p><blockquote>休伯蒂认为，由于金融市场再次出现波动，交易员正在寻找被认为是更安全投资的优质公司，苹果的股价将会上涨。她还预计，苹果的供应链挑战将在未来几个季度减弱，从而有助于推动iPhone销量走高。</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, Huberty argues that Apple's current stock price does not fully reflect its ability to innovate. The tech giant is reportedly developing augmented reality products and self-driving vehicle technology, which could boost demand for its shares among investors ahead of their expected launch dates.</p><p><blockquote>此外，休伯蒂认为，苹果目前的股价并没有完全反映其创新能力。据报道，这家科技巨头正在开发增强现实产品和自动驾驶汽车技术，这可能会在预期上市日期之前提振投资者对其股票的需求。</blockquote></p><p> \"As we get closer to these products becoming a reality, we believe [Apple's] valuation would need to reflect the optionality of these future opportunities,\" Huberty said.</p><p><blockquote>休伯蒂表示：“随着这些产品越来越接近成为现实，我们相信[苹果]的估值需要反映这些未来机会的可选性。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Now what</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现在怎么办</b></blockquote></p><p> Few companies match Apple's track record of innovation. Time and again, Apple has created game-changing products that have gone on to capture the lion's share of their industries' profits.</p><p><blockquote>很少有公司能与苹果的创新记录相媲美。苹果一次又一次地创造出改变游戏规则的产品，并继续占据行业利润的最大份额。</blockquote></p><p> It's entirely possible that Apple could do so again in the realms of augmented reality and autonomous vehicle technology. In turn, it's conceivable that Apple's share price will ascend to Huberty's $200 price target -- and perhaps even higher -- in the coming year.</p><p><blockquote>苹果完全有可能在增强现实和自动驾驶汽车技术领域再次做到这一点。反过来，可以想象，来年苹果的股价将升至休伯蒂200美元的目标价，甚至可能更高。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/12/07/why-apple-stock-climbed-to-a-new-all-time-high-tod/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/12/07/why-apple-stock-climbed-to-a-new-all-time-high-tod/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121607111","content_text":"What happened\nShares of Apple ( AAPL 3.55% ) rose 3.5% to a record closing price of $171.18 on Tuesday, after an analyst placed a price target on the stock that represents a new high among Wall Street's estimates.\n\nSo what\nMorgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty now sees Apple's shares rising to $200, up from a previous forecast of $164. If she's right, investors could enjoy gains of roughly 17% from today's price.\n\nHuberty sees Apple's share price rising as traders seek out high-quality companies that are thought to be safer investments, now that volatility has returned to the financial markets. She also expects Apple's supply chain challenges to abate in the coming quarters, thereby helping to drive iPhone sales higher.\n\nAdditionally, Huberty argues that Apple's current stock price does not fully reflect its ability to innovate. The tech giant is reportedly developing augmented reality products and self-driving vehicle technology, which could boost demand for its shares among investors ahead of their expected launch dates.\n\n\"As we get closer to these products becoming a reality, we believe [Apple's] valuation would need to reflect the optionality of these future opportunities,\" Huberty said.\n\nNow what\nFew companies match Apple's track record of innovation. Time and again, Apple has created game-changing products that have gone on to capture the lion's share of their industries' profits.\n\nIt's entirely possible that Apple could do so again in the realms of augmented reality and autonomous vehicle technology. In turn, it's conceivable that Apple's share price will ascend to Huberty's $200 price target -- and perhaps even higher -- in the coming year.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2010,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":812504578,"gmtCreate":1630593141994,"gmtModify":1632471149019,"author":{"id":"4090570965971460","authorId":"4090570965971460","name":"KeN3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffc770a2d3626a3e029ba2c461aac13d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090570965971460","idStr":"4090570965971460"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow... will that really happen?","listText":"Wow... will that really happen?","text":"Wow... will that really happen?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/812504578","repostId":"1131318558","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1131318558","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630591645,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1131318558?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-02 22:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Bear Attack: Could Apple Stock Really Drop 40%?<blockquote>空头攻击：苹果股价真的会下跌40%吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131318558","media":"Thestreet","summary":"One of two Wall Street analysts that had a sell rating on Apple stock threw in the towel. The other still thinks that AAPL shares could drop 40%. Is the sizable downside risk realistic?On the first day of September, one of the rare Wall Street bears on Apple stock  finally gave in and dropped his sell rating. The last remaining one still sees shares dropping to a price target of $90, representing risk of loss of around 40%.Could New Street’s Pierre Ferragu, the last remaining Apple bear on Wall ","content":"<p>One of two Wall Street analysts that had a sell rating on Apple stock threw in the towel. The other still thinks that AAPL shares could drop 40%. Is the sizable downside risk realistic?</p><p><blockquote>对苹果股票给予卖出评级的两位华尔街分析师之一认输了。另一位仍然认为AAPL股价可能会下跌40%。巨大的下行风险现实吗？</blockquote></p><p> On the first day of September, one of the rare Wall Street bears on Apple stock&nbsp;(<b>AAPL</b>)&nbsp;finally gave in and dropped his sell rating. The last remaining one still&nbsp;sees&nbsp;shares dropping to a price target of $90, representing risk of loss of around 40%.</p><p><blockquote>九月的第一天，华尔街罕见的看空苹果股票之一（<b>AAPL</b>）最终让步，下调了卖出评级。剩下的最后一位仍将股价跌至90美元的目标价，损失风险约为40%。</blockquote></p><p> Could New Street’s Pierre Ferragu, the last remaining Apple bear on Wall Street, be right about his downside call? The Apple Maven looks a bit closer at the argument.</p><p><blockquote>New Street的Pierre Ferragu是华尔街最后一位看空苹果的人，他对看涨期权下行的看法可能是正确的吗？这位苹果专家更仔细地观察了这场争论。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why bearish on Apple?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>为什么看空苹果？</b></blockquote></p><p> The core of Pierre’s bearish argument&nbsp;seems to be the iPhone. The analyst has called the upcoming device launch a “12S cycle”, arguing that the best of Apple’s iPhone upgrade wave,the so-called 5G super cycle, has been left in the rearview mirror.</p><p><blockquote>皮埃尔看空论点的核心似乎是iPhone。这位分析师将即将推出的设备称为“12S周期”，认为苹果iPhone升级浪潮中最好的部分，即所谓的5G超级周期，已经成为过去。</blockquote></p><p> New Street subscribes to the view that the strong iPhone 12 cycle has pulled forward smartphone sales, leaving a gap in demand going forward. Interestingly, this is exactly the&nbsp;opposite opinion of bullish Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, who said the following during an interview with the Apple Maven:</p><p><blockquote>New Street赞同这样的观点，即强劲的iPhone 12周期拉动了智能手机销量，导致未来需求出现缺口。有趣的是，这与看涨的Wedbush分析师Dan Ives的观点完全相反，Dan Ives在接受《苹果专家》采访时表示：</blockquote></p><p>   “What the Street underestimates is how massive and elongated this super cycle is. […] 5G does not get fully embraced for the next two or three years, until the networks are built out. In China [where the 5G infrastructure is further ahead], the iPhone 12, especially the larger Pro versions, really sold extremely well.”  Still on the iPhone, Mr. Ferragu laid out his expectations for 2022 back in April (I am unaware of revisions since then). He believes that iPhone shipments will reach 190 million units, suggesting segment revenues of around $150 billion – a modest annual increase of 5% from COVID-19 levels.</p><p><blockquote>“华尔街低估了这个超级周期的规模和长度。[……]在网络建成之前，5G在未来两三年内不会被完全接受。在中国（5G基础设施更加领先），iPhone 12，尤其是较大的Pro版本，确实卖得非常好。”Ferragu先生仍然在iPhone上，早在4月份就提出了他对2022年的预期（我不知道此后有任何修改）。他认为iPhone出货量将达到1.9亿部，这意味着该部门的收入约为1500亿美元——比COVID-19水平每年小幅增长5%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Could AAPL sink 40%?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AAPL会下跌40%吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, let’s put pen to paper. For Apple stock to be valued at $90 apiece, one of two things would need to happen: either financial performance would need to lag consensus expectations, or valuations would need to contract (or a combination of both).</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们动笔。苹果股票的估值要达到每股90美元，需要发生两件事之一：要么财务业绩需要落后于普遍预期，要么估值需要收缩（或两者兼而有之）。</blockquote></p><p> On results,Wall Street currently sees&nbsp;fiscal 2022 EPS landing at $5.63, roughly flat against a 2021 that has been impressive so far. For AAPL to drop 40% in price, therefore, next-year earnings would need to miss consensus substantially, by at least a couple of dollars. I find this highly unlikely.</p><p><blockquote>从业绩来看，华尔街目前预计2022财年每股收益将达到5.63美元，与迄今为止令人印象深刻的2021财年基本持平。因此，苹果公司要想股价下跌40%，明年的盈利就需要大幅低于市场预期，至少下降几美元。我觉得这不太可能。</blockquote></p><p> On valuations, AAPL currently trades at a fiscal 2021 earnings multiple of 27 times. Assuming consensus-matching results in the future, this multiple would need to drop to about 16 times for AAPL shares to sink to $90. The stock’s forward P/E has not been this low in years.</p><p><blockquote>从估值来看，AAPL目前的2021财年市盈率为27倍。假设未来的结果与共识匹配，这一市盈率需要降至16倍左右，AAPL股价才能跌至90美元。该股的预期市盈率多年来从未如此低。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Apple Maven’s take</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果专家的看法</b></blockquote></p><p> I find it very improbable, if not virtually impossible, for Apple to ever be valued at $90 per share again. It is much more reasonable, in my opinion, that New Street’s current price target on the stock is simply stale, following AAPL’s 25% rally in the past six months.</p><p><blockquote>我发现苹果的估值即使不是几乎不可能，也不太可能再次达到每股90美元。在我看来，更合理的是，在AAPL在过去六个月内上涨了25%之后，New Street目前的股价目标已经过时了。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, I would not be surprised to see Wall Street’s last AAPL bear eventually (soon?) give in on his downside convictions, at least in what pertains to his current price target.</p><p><blockquote>因此，看到华尔街最后一次看空苹果公司最终（很快？）屈服于他的下行信念，至少在与他当前的价格目标相关的方面，我不会感到惊讶。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bear Attack: Could Apple Stock Really Drop 40%?<blockquote>空头攻击：苹果股价真的会下跌40%吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBear Attack: Could Apple Stock Really Drop 40%?<blockquote>空头攻击：苹果股价真的会下跌40%吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Thestreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-02 22:07</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>One of two Wall Street analysts that had a sell rating on Apple stock threw in the towel. The other still thinks that AAPL shares could drop 40%. Is the sizable downside risk realistic?</p><p><blockquote>对苹果股票给予卖出评级的两位华尔街分析师之一认输了。另一位仍然认为AAPL股价可能会下跌40%。巨大的下行风险现实吗？</blockquote></p><p> On the first day of September, one of the rare Wall Street bears on Apple stock&nbsp;(<b>AAPL</b>)&nbsp;finally gave in and dropped his sell rating. The last remaining one still&nbsp;sees&nbsp;shares dropping to a price target of $90, representing risk of loss of around 40%.</p><p><blockquote>九月的第一天，华尔街罕见的看空苹果股票之一（<b>AAPL</b>）最终让步，下调了卖出评级。剩下的最后一位仍将股价跌至90美元的目标价，损失风险约为40%。</blockquote></p><p> Could New Street’s Pierre Ferragu, the last remaining Apple bear on Wall Street, be right about his downside call? The Apple Maven looks a bit closer at the argument.</p><p><blockquote>New Street的Pierre Ferragu是华尔街最后一位看空苹果的人，他对看涨期权下行的看法可能是正确的吗？这位苹果专家更仔细地观察了这场争论。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why bearish on Apple?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>为什么看空苹果？</b></blockquote></p><p> The core of Pierre’s bearish argument&nbsp;seems to be the iPhone. The analyst has called the upcoming device launch a “12S cycle”, arguing that the best of Apple’s iPhone upgrade wave,the so-called 5G super cycle, has been left in the rearview mirror.</p><p><blockquote>皮埃尔看空论点的核心似乎是iPhone。这位分析师将即将推出的设备称为“12S周期”，认为苹果iPhone升级浪潮中最好的部分，即所谓的5G超级周期，已经成为过去。</blockquote></p><p> New Street subscribes to the view that the strong iPhone 12 cycle has pulled forward smartphone sales, leaving a gap in demand going forward. Interestingly, this is exactly the&nbsp;opposite opinion of bullish Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, who said the following during an interview with the Apple Maven:</p><p><blockquote>New Street赞同这样的观点，即强劲的iPhone 12周期拉动了智能手机销量，导致未来需求出现缺口。有趣的是，这与看涨的Wedbush分析师Dan Ives的观点完全相反，Dan Ives在接受《苹果专家》采访时表示：</blockquote></p><p>   “What the Street underestimates is how massive and elongated this super cycle is. […] 5G does not get fully embraced for the next two or three years, until the networks are built out. In China [where the 5G infrastructure is further ahead], the iPhone 12, especially the larger Pro versions, really sold extremely well.”  Still on the iPhone, Mr. Ferragu laid out his expectations for 2022 back in April (I am unaware of revisions since then). He believes that iPhone shipments will reach 190 million units, suggesting segment revenues of around $150 billion – a modest annual increase of 5% from COVID-19 levels.</p><p><blockquote>“华尔街低估了这个超级周期的规模和长度。[……]在网络建成之前，5G在未来两三年内不会被完全接受。在中国（5G基础设施更加领先），iPhone 12，尤其是较大的Pro版本，确实卖得非常好。”Ferragu先生仍然在iPhone上，早在4月份就提出了他对2022年的预期（我不知道此后有任何修改）。他认为iPhone出货量将达到1.9亿部，这意味着该部门的收入约为1500亿美元——比COVID-19水平每年小幅增长5%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Could AAPL sink 40%?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AAPL会下跌40%吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, let’s put pen to paper. For Apple stock to be valued at $90 apiece, one of two things would need to happen: either financial performance would need to lag consensus expectations, or valuations would need to contract (or a combination of both).</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们动笔。苹果股票的估值要达到每股90美元，需要发生两件事之一：要么财务业绩需要落后于普遍预期，要么估值需要收缩（或两者兼而有之）。</blockquote></p><p> On results,Wall Street currently sees&nbsp;fiscal 2022 EPS landing at $5.63, roughly flat against a 2021 that has been impressive so far. For AAPL to drop 40% in price, therefore, next-year earnings would need to miss consensus substantially, by at least a couple of dollars. I find this highly unlikely.</p><p><blockquote>从业绩来看，华尔街目前预计2022财年每股收益将达到5.63美元，与迄今为止令人印象深刻的2021财年基本持平。因此，苹果公司要想股价下跌40%，明年的盈利就需要大幅低于市场预期，至少下降几美元。我觉得这不太可能。</blockquote></p><p> On valuations, AAPL currently trades at a fiscal 2021 earnings multiple of 27 times. Assuming consensus-matching results in the future, this multiple would need to drop to about 16 times for AAPL shares to sink to $90. The stock’s forward P/E has not been this low in years.</p><p><blockquote>从估值来看，AAPL目前的2021财年市盈率为27倍。假设未来的结果与共识匹配，这一市盈率需要降至16倍左右，AAPL股价才能跌至90美元。该股的预期市盈率多年来从未如此低。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Apple Maven’s take</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果专家的看法</b></blockquote></p><p> I find it very improbable, if not virtually impossible, for Apple to ever be valued at $90 per share again. It is much more reasonable, in my opinion, that New Street’s current price target on the stock is simply stale, following AAPL’s 25% rally in the past six months.</p><p><blockquote>我发现苹果的估值即使不是几乎不可能，也不太可能再次达到每股90美元。在我看来，更合理的是，在AAPL在过去六个月内上涨了25%之后，New Street目前的股价目标已经过时了。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, I would not be surprised to see Wall Street’s last AAPL bear eventually (soon?) give in on his downside convictions, at least in what pertains to his current price target.</p><p><blockquote>因此，看到华尔街最后一次看空苹果公司最终（很快？）屈服于他的下行信念，至少在与他当前的价格目标相关的方面，我不会感到惊讶。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/bear-attack-could-apple-stock-really-drop-40\">Thestreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/bear-attack-could-apple-stock-really-drop-40","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131318558","content_text":"One of two Wall Street analysts that had a sell rating on Apple stock threw in the towel. The other still thinks that AAPL shares could drop 40%. Is the sizable downside risk realistic?\nOn the first day of September, one of the rare Wall Street bears on Apple stock (AAPL) finally gave in and dropped his sell rating. The last remaining one still sees shares dropping to a price target of $90, representing risk of loss of around 40%.\nCould New Street’s Pierre Ferragu, the last remaining Apple bear on Wall Street, be right about his downside call? The Apple Maven looks a bit closer at the argument.\nWhy bearish on Apple?\nThe core of Pierre’s bearish argument seems to be the iPhone. The analyst has called the upcoming device launch a “12S cycle”, arguing that the best of Apple’s iPhone upgrade wave,the so-called 5G super cycle, has been left in the rearview mirror.\nNew Street subscribes to the view that the strong iPhone 12 cycle has pulled forward smartphone sales, leaving a gap in demand going forward. Interestingly, this is exactly the opposite opinion of bullish Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, who said the following during an interview with the Apple Maven:\n\n “What the Street underestimates is how massive and elongated this super cycle is. […] 5G does not get fully embraced for the next two or three years, until the networks are built out. In China [where the 5G infrastructure is further ahead], the iPhone 12, especially the larger Pro versions, really sold extremely well.”\n\nStill on the iPhone, Mr. Ferragu laid out his expectations for 2022 back in April (I am unaware of revisions since then). He believes that iPhone shipments will reach 190 million units, suggesting segment revenues of around $150 billion – a modest annual increase of 5% from COVID-19 levels.\nCould AAPL sink 40%?\nNow, let’s put pen to paper. For Apple stock to be valued at $90 apiece, one of two things would need to happen: either financial performance would need to lag consensus expectations, or valuations would need to contract (or a combination of both).\nOn results,Wall Street currently sees fiscal 2022 EPS landing at $5.63, roughly flat against a 2021 that has been impressive so far. For AAPL to drop 40% in price, therefore, next-year earnings would need to miss consensus substantially, by at least a couple of dollars. I find this highly unlikely.\nOn valuations, AAPL currently trades at a fiscal 2021 earnings multiple of 27 times. Assuming consensus-matching results in the future, this multiple would need to drop to about 16 times for AAPL shares to sink to $90. The stock’s forward P/E has not been this low in years.\nThe Apple Maven’s take\nI find it very improbable, if not virtually impossible, for Apple to ever be valued at $90 per share again. It is much more reasonable, in my opinion, that New Street’s current price target on the stock is simply stale, following AAPL’s 25% rally in the past six months.\nTherefore, I would not be surprised to see Wall Street’s last AAPL bear eventually (soon?) give in on his downside convictions, at least in what pertains to his current price target.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1302,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":818670841,"gmtCreate":1630407820583,"gmtModify":1633678298303,"author":{"id":"4090570965971460","authorId":"4090570965971460","name":"KeN3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffc770a2d3626a3e029ba2c461aac13d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090570965971460","idStr":"4090570965971460"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/818670841","repostId":"1117204549","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3018,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":833717639,"gmtCreate":1629262897921,"gmtModify":1633686114799,"author":{"id":"4090570965971460","authorId":"4090570965971460","name":"KeN3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffc770a2d3626a3e029ba2c461aac13d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090570965971460","idStr":"4090570965971460"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Loved using their phones and products","listText":"Loved using their phones and products","text":"Loved using their phones and products","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/833717639","repostId":"2160781981","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":496,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":818670485,"gmtCreate":1630407862347,"gmtModify":1633678297877,"author":{"id":"4090570965971460","authorId":"4090570965971460","name":"KeN3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffc770a2d3626a3e029ba2c461aac13d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090570965971460","idStr":"4090570965971460"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Who are the buyers?","listText":"Who are the buyers?","text":"Who are the buyers?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/818670485","repostId":"1166793997","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1166793997","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630396480,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1166793997?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-31 15:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Could Get Partial Tax Breaks In India After All: Report<blockquote>特斯拉毕竟可以在印度获得部分税收减免：报告</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166793997","media":"Benzinga","summary":"India could offer Tesla Inc partial relief on import duties to get electric vehicles shipped to the ","content":"<p><div> India could offer Tesla Inc partial relief on import duties to get electric vehicles shipped to the country, The Economic Times reported on Monday, citing officials. What Happened:Various stakeholders...</p><p><blockquote><div>据《经济时报》周一援引官员的话报道，印度可能会向特斯拉公司提供部分进口税减免，以将电动汽车运往印度。发生了什么：各种利益相关者...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/08/22731456/tesla-could-get-partial-tax-breaks-in-india-after-all-report\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/08/22731456/tesla-could-get-partial-tax-breaks-in-india-after-all-report\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Could Get Partial Tax Breaks In India After All: Report<blockquote>特斯拉毕竟可以在印度获得部分税收减免：报告</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Could Get Partial Tax Breaks In India After All: Report<blockquote>特斯拉毕竟可以在印度获得部分税收减免：报告</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Benzinga</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-31 15:54</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> India could offer Tesla Inc partial relief on import duties to get electric vehicles shipped to the country, The Economic Times reported on Monday, citing officials. What Happened:Various stakeholders...</p><p><blockquote><div>据《经济时报》周一援引官员的话报道，印度可能会向特斯拉公司提供部分进口税减免，以将电动汽车运往印度。发生了什么：各种利益相关者...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/08/22731456/tesla-could-get-partial-tax-breaks-in-india-after-all-report\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/08/22731456/tesla-could-get-partial-tax-breaks-in-india-after-all-report\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/08/22731456/tesla-could-get-partial-tax-breaks-in-india-after-all-report\">Benzinga</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/08/22731456/tesla-could-get-partial-tax-breaks-in-india-after-all-report","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166793997","content_text":"India could offer Tesla Inc partial relief on import duties to get electric vehicles shipped to the country, The Economic Times reported on Monday, citing officials.\nWhat Happened:Various stakeholders in the government are open to providing tax breaks but the Elon Musk-led company needs to furnish detailed investment plans first before any decision is taken on the government's part.\n“We can offer some relief... but we need to know what their plans are,” an unnamed official told ET.\nTesla claimed it procures components worth $100 million from India and suggested that figure would increase following any tax concessions, according to the report.\nThe EV maker plans to make significant direct investments in sales, service, and charging infrastructure and evaluate broader investments in manufacturing once it gets the rebates.\nWhy It Matters:The back-and-forth comes after Musk criticized India’s restrictive policies and tweeted to say that, while Tesla wants to make cars in the country, the import duties there are the highest in the world.\nThe Palo Alto, California-based company had in a letter to India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi sought a reduction in import duties on electric cars to 40% from the current 60% to 100%.\nTesla had also requested to scrap the 10% social welfare surcharge that is levied on all imported cars.\nPrice Action:Tesla shares closed 2.67% higher at $730.91 on Monday.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3035,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}