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2021-12-17

Window dressing is coming, grab the chance :)

2021-09-08

Amazon will focus on cloud service，e-commerce eventually just price war. The cheapest win the market shares

Amazon: Stock Still Attractive With Shift Towards E-Commerce And Cloud Growth<blockquote>亚马逊：随着转向电子商务和云增长，股票仍然具有吸引力</blockquote>

2021-07-27

Cryto no reaction, keep going up

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2021-07-11

GG

China has prohibited the merger of HuYa and DouYu<blockquote>中国禁止虎牙和斗鱼合并</blockquote>

2021-07-06

Covid, no demand for o&g, settle covid boost o&g

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2021-07-05

Fed minutes [思考]

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2021-07-01

Going up non-stop

S&P 500 notches fifth straight record closing high, fifth straight quarterly gain<blockquote>标普500连续第五次创下收盘历史新高，连续第五个季度上涨</blockquote>

2021-06-29

Good time for finance stocks

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2021-06-28

Slow but steady

Microsoft Rides Its Cloud Business to a $2 Trillion Market Cap. It’s Not Done Yet.<blockquote>微软的云业务市值达到了 2 万亿美元。还没完成。</blockquote>

2021-06-26

FED rate will go up soon

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dressing is coming, grab the chance :)","listText":"Window dressing is coming, grab the chance :)","text":"Window dressing is coming, grab the chance :)","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/699318899","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3463,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":880486537,"gmtCreate":1631072200229,"gmtModify":1631883943550,"author":{"id":"3584755094881851","authorId":"3584755094881851","name":"MewCat","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584755094881851","idStr":"3584755094881851"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Amazon will focus on cloud service，e-commerce eventually just price war. The cheapest win the market shares","listText":"Amazon will focus on cloud service，e-commerce eventually just price war. The cheapest win the market shares","text":"Amazon will focus on cloud service，e-commerce eventually just price war. The cheapest win the market shares","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/880486537","repostId":"1143120804","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1143120804","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631072080,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1143120804?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-08 11:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon: Stock Still Attractive With Shift Towards E-Commerce And Cloud Growth<blockquote>亚马逊：随着转向电子商务和云增长，股票仍然具有吸引力</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143120804","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth ra","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth rate forecast to 15.8%.</li>  <li>While growth is moderating following a stellar year with robust activity, the company remains poised to benefit from the e-commerce shift with a forecast penetration rate of 22% of retail.</li>  <li>AWS is expected to remain as the number 1 market leader for the foreseeable future.</li>  <li>We revised our valuation using DCF analysis to obtain a new price target of $4,303,18 from $3,358.73.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2ca0bbeb0cb7be66a257f4e9d5f5fa1\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>4kodiak/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>公司2020年的收入增长超出了我们的预期，我们将其增长率预测修正为15.8%。</li><li>尽管在经历了强劲活动的辉煌一年后，增长正在放缓，但该公司仍准备从电子商务转变中受益，预计零售渗透率为 22%。</li><li>在可预见的未来，AWS 预计仍将是第一大市场领导者。</li><li>我们使用 DCF 分析修改了估值，从 3,358.73 美元获得了 4,303,18 美元的新目标价。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>4kodiak/iStock 未通过 Getty Images 发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Since our previous&nbsp;coverage, Amazon Inc.'s (AMZN) stock has risen by 26% and exceeded our revenue growth expectations of 24.5% and finished 2020 up by 37.6% on exceptional growth of its online retail business growing by 40% to nearly $200 bln and third-party services at $80bln. In this analysis, we re-examine its key growth drivers namely online retail, third party services and AWS.</p><p><blockquote>自我们之前的报道以来，亚马逊公司 (AMZN) 的股价已上涨 26%，超过了我们 24.5% 的收入增长预期，并在 2020 年底上涨了 37.6%，原因是其在线零售业务增长了 40%，达到近 2000 亿美元，第三方服务为 800 亿美元。在本分析中，我们重新审视了其主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方服务和 AWS。</blockquote></p><p> Despite the softness in Q2 of its online store sales growth of 13% and soft Q3&nbsp;guidance&nbsp;of 13% YoY at the midpoint, indicating a sign of normalizing growth, the secular growth outlook of the e-commerce market remains attractive from the continued shift towards online retail which Amazon has an established market position. As more consumers shift their purchasing behavior online, the share of e-commerce is forecasted to reach 22% by 2023 from 18% in 2020. We believe that Amazon's well-established market position with a massive Prime membership base as loyal customers and solid logistics and shipping network providing it with an advantage as seen with the rise of its e-commerce marketplace with third-party sellers. Moreover, its cloud business is expected to remain the market leader of the cloud infrastructure market for the foreseeable future with continued commitment towards growth and underpinned by rising data volumes.</p><p><blockquote>尽管第二季度在线商店销售额增长 13%，第三季度中点同比增长 13%，表明增长正常化的迹象，但由于亚马逊继续转向在线零售，电子商务市场的长期增长前景仍然具有吸引力，亚马逊在在线零售方面拥有既定的市场地位。随着越来越多的消费者将购买行为转移到网上，预计到 2023 年，电子商务的份额将从 2020 年的 18% 达到 22%。我们相信，亚马逊稳固的市场地位、庞大的 Prime 会员基础（作为忠实客户）以及稳固的物流和运输网络为其提供了优势，这一点从其电子商务市场与第三方卖家的崛起中可见一斑。此外，在可预见的未来，其云业务预计仍将是云基础设施市场的市场领导者，并将继续致力于增长，并以不断增长的数据量为支撑。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a78658eabc40ec60c6713019d6f800c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Amazon</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：亚马逊</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>E-commerce Sales Outlook Still Attractive Despite Normalizing Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>尽管增长正常化，电子商务销售前景仍然有吸引力</b></blockquote></p><p> Amazon's online store&nbsp;sales&nbsp;have surged 40% in 2020 from 14.8% in the prior year as it benefitted from the prolonged lockdowns and restrictions on physical retailers which saw the accelerated shift towards e-commerce adoption. However, despite the slowdown in its online store growth in Q2 2021 of 13% YoY compared to 41% in Q1, we believe that the company is poised to continue reaping the secular tailwinds of the rising e-commerce adoption.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊的在线商店销售额在2020年从上一年的14.8%飙升了40%，因为它受益于对实体零售商的长期封锁和限制，这加速了向电子商务的转变。然而，尽管 2021 年第二季度其在线商店增长同比放缓 13%，而第一季度为 41%，但我们相信该公司已准备好继续收获电子商务采用率上升的长期顺风。</blockquote></p><p> According to eMarketer, the share of e-commerce sales is forecasted to&nbsp;reach&nbsp;22% of global retail sales as consumers continue to shift towards online buying. Global retail sales are forecasted to bound back by 7.2% with the vaccination drives across the world and easing business restrictions. Thus, the e-commerce sales forecast is 10.2% in 2021 which represents a normalized growth from 27.6% in 2019 as the penetration rate surged to 18% from 14% in the past year.</p><p><blockquote>根据eMarketer的数据，随着消费者继续转向网上购物，电子商务销售的份额预计将达到全球零售额的22%。随着全球疫苗接种运动和商业限制的放松，全球零售额预计将回升7.2%。因此，由于渗透率从去年的14%飙升至18%，2021年的电子商务销售额预测为10.2%，较2019年的27.6%正常增长。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>Global E-Commerce Market ($ bln)</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>全球电子商务市场（十亿美元）</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2016</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2016</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2017</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2017</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2018</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2018</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2019</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2019</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2020</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2020</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2021F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2021F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2022F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2022F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2023F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2023F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Total Global Retail Sales ('a')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>全球零售总额（“A”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>21,453</p><p><blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22,904</p><p><blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>23,560</p><p><blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>24,780</p><p><blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>23,778</p><p><blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25,490</p><p><blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27,172</p><p><blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>28,395</p><p><blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>-4.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>7.20%</p><p><blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6.60%</p><p><blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.50%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1,845</p><p><blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2,382</p><p><blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2,982</p><p><blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>3,354</p><p><blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4,280</p><p><blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4,716</p><p><blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5,434</p><p><blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6,247</p><p><blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>29.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>12.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>10.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Penetration Rate ('c')</b></p><p><blockquote><tr><td><b>渗透率（'c'）</b></td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9%</p><p><blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>10%</p><p><blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>12%</p><p><blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>14%</p><p><blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>18%</p><p><blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19%</p><p><blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>20%</p><p><blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22%</p><p><blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> <i>* B = C x A</i></p><p><blockquote><i>* B = C x A</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Statista, eMarketer, Khaveen Investments</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源：Statista、eMarketer、Khaveen Investments</i></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Amazon's established market positioning is an added competitive strength of it to capitalize on the market growth. More specifically, it is hard to win over the company in the key criteria of price, choice and convenience. Evidently, the company's Prime membership continued to grow in 2020 by 15% to 142.5 mln members or roughly 43% of the US&nbsp;population. This indicates the strong attraction of loyal customers to the company providing it with a massive install base. Through Prime membership, consumers are also pushed to buy more to obtain various benefits.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊既定的市场定位是其利用市场增长的额外竞争实力。更具体地说，在价格、选择和便利性等关键标准上，很难赢得该公司的青睐。显然，该公司的主要会员在2020年继续增长15%，达到1.425亿会员，约占美国人口的43%。这表明忠实客户对该公司的强大吸引力，为其提供了庞大的安装基础。通过Prime会员，也促使消费者购买更多，以获得各种福利。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/125c2baa1b52e2787075210f05321e20\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"492\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Backlinko</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Backlinko</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In addition to Prime members, the company has been able to consistently&nbsp;attract&nbsp;sellers to its platform with 3.3 mln new sellers since 2017 or 3,718 per day. Currently, it has 9.7 mlnsellersworldwide across the US, UK, Germany, Japan, etc. Thus, the company has established itself as the dominant market leader and is far ahead of its next closest competitor in terms of e-commerce sales.</p><p><blockquote>除了Prime会员，该公司自2017年以来一直能够持续吸引卖家到其平台，有330万新卖家，即每天3718家。目前，它在美国、英国、德国、日本等地拥有970万卖家。因此，该公司已成为占主导地位的市场领导者，并在电子商务销售方面远远领先于其次最接近的竞争对手。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6272ba7ee8cf6f5aab477b8425f34923\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"355\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Marketing Charts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：营销图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Its market leadership is quite extensive across different product categories and markets as illustrated in the table below. For example, it accounts for Its consumer &amp; consumer electronics sales is the largest product category accounting for 50.2% of the products' total e-commerce sales in the US and 26.7% of total retail sales. This is followed by apparel &amp; accessories, books music &amp; video and furniture and home furnishings which is 32%, 83.2% and 34.2 % of e-commerce sales.</p><p><blockquote>如下表所示，其市场领导地位在不同的产品类别和市场中相当广泛。例如，其消费电子产品销售额是最大的产品类别，占美国电子商务产品总销售额的 50.2%，占零售总额的 26.7%。其次是服装和配饰、书籍、音乐和视频以及家具和家居用品，分别占电子商务销售额的32%、83.2%和34.2%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6765530fd408a02c75515a712af4087\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"725\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: eMarketer</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：eMarketer</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Among the product categories, the electronics category is the most popular among shoppers in the US with 44% of US shoppers having&nbsp;purchased&nbsp;electronics on Amazon. It also sells its own electronicdevicesincluding Echo smart speakers which account for 70% of the US market share followed by Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) and continues to develop the product with newer generations and software&nbsp;updates. In 2020, the company shipped over 38 mln smart speaker&nbsp;units&nbsp;and accounted for 28.3% of the global market share of shipments. We estimated its revenues from the sale of its smart speakers based on the average&nbsp;price&nbsp;of the Echo product family of $103 to be around $3.94 bln in revenues which is around 2% of its online store revenues. However, it also faces increasing competition especially from the Chinese manufacturers such as Baidu (BIDU) and Xiaomi (OTCPK:XIACF) which dominate the China market.</p><p><blockquote>在产品类别中，电子产品类别最受美国购物者欢迎，44%的美国购物者在亚马逊上购买过电子产品。它还销售自己的电子设备，包括Echo智能扬声器，占美国市场份额的70%，其次是谷歌（GOOG）和苹果（AAPL），并继续开发新一代产品和软件更新。2020年，该公司智能音箱出货量超过3800万台，占全球出货量市场份额的28.3%。根据 Echo 产品系列 103 美元的平均价格，我们估计其智能扬声器销售收入约为 39.4 亿美元，约占其在线商店收入的 2%。然而，它也面临着日益激烈的竞争，尤其是来自主导中国市场的百度（BIDU）和小米（OTCPK：XIACF）等中国制造商的竞争。</blockquote></p><p> All in all, the company has a massive product breadth of 12 mln&nbsp;products&nbsp;excluding books, media, wine and services and with the growing seller base, we expect this product breadth to continue to be expanded and provide customers unique value proposition with product variety.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，该公司拥有1200万种产品，不包括书籍、媒体、葡萄酒和服务，随着卖家基础的增长，我们预计这一产品范围将继续扩大，并通过产品种类为客户提供独特的价值主张。</blockquote></p><p> Thus, we expect its solid market dominance with an ecosystem of an established customer base and loyal Prime members and a large seller base with extensive market leadership across various key product categories with a broad product breadth to support its long-term growth. We projected its online store growth based on our expectation of its market share at 4.5% based on a 5-year average on the global e-commerce sales.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们预计其拥有稳固的市场主导地位，拥有由已建立的客户群和忠诚的 Prime 会员组成的生态系统，以及在各种关键产品类别中拥有广泛市场领导地位的大型卖家基础，产品范围广泛，以支持其长期增长。我们预测其在线商店的增长基于我们对其市场份额的预期，基于全球电子商务销售额的 5 年平均水平，为 4.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>Amazon Online Stores ($ bln)</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>亚马逊在线商店（十亿美元）</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2016</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2016</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2017</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2017</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2018</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2018</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2019</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2019</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2020</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2020</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2021F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2021F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2022F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2022F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2023F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2023F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Total Retail Sales ('a')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>零售总额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>21,453</p><p><blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22,904</p><p><blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>23,560</p><p><blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>24,780</p><p><blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>23,778</p><p><blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25,490</p><p><blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27,172</p><p><blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>28,395</p><p><blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>-4.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>7.20%</p><p><blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6.60%</p><p><blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.50%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1,845</p><p><blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2,382</p><p><blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2,982</p><p><blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>3,354</p><p><blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4,280</p><p><blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4,716</p><p><blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5,434</p><p><blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6,247</p><p><blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>29.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>12.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>10.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Penetration Rate ('c')</b></p><p><blockquote><tr><td><b>渗透率（'c'）</b></td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9%</p><p><blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></p><p></p><p></td>    <td>10%</p><p><blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>12%</p><p><blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>14%</p><p><blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>18%</p><p><blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19%</p><p><blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>20%</p><p><blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22%</p><p><blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>16.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>16.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>20.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>20.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>17.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>17.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>11.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>11.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>32.4%</p><p><blockquote><td>32.4%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>2.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>8.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>10.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>10.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Amazon Online Stores Revenues ('d')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店收入（“d”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>91.43</p><p><blockquote><td>91.43</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>108.35</p><p><blockquote><td>108.35</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>122.99</p><p><blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>141.25</p><p><blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>197.35</p><p><blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>211.74</p><p><blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>244.02</p><p><blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>280.50</p><p><blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>18.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>18.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>13.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>14.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>39.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>7.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Amazon Online Stores Market Share ('e')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店市场份额（“e”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>5.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> <i>* B = A x C</i></p><p><blockquote><i>* B = A x C</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>*D = B x E</i></p><p><blockquote><i>*D = B x E</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen Investments</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Rise of Third-party Seller Services</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第三方卖家服务的兴起</b></blockquote></p><p> Another major advantage of the company is its logistics and shipping operations, which has become an impenetrable moat that few other companies will ever have the resources or ability to match, with Amazon partnering with most major delivery providers in the country. By leveraging its robust network, it offers programs to enable sellers to sell their products through its marketplace and fulfill orders through the company.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的另一个主要优势是其物流和航运业务，这已经成为一条坚不可摧的护城河，很少有其他公司有资源或能力与之匹敌，亚马逊与该国大多数主要的送货提供商都有合作。通过利用其强大的网络，它提供了使卖家能够通过其市场销售产品并通过公司履行订单的计划。</blockquote></p><p> With Fulfillment by Amazon ('FBA'), third party sellersstore&nbsp;products in Amazon's fulfillment centers, and it picks, packs, ships, and provide customer service for these products. Amazon is not the seller but earns commissions and related fulfillment and shipping fees including inventory management, payment processing, shipment tracking and reporting from the arrangements from its third-party sellers who are largely comprised of small- and medium-sized businesses.</p><p><blockquote>通过亚马逊履行（“FBA”），第三方卖家在亚马逊的履行中心存储产品，并为这些产品挑选、包装、运输和提供客户服务。亚马逊不是卖家，但从主要由中小型企业组成的第三方卖家的安排中赚取佣金和相关的履行和运输费用，包括库存管理、支付处理、运输跟踪和报告。</blockquote></p><p> Selling on Amazon as a third-party seller is an increasingly popular option for sellers. It ultimately&nbsp;provides&nbsp;more flexibility and control, a stronger brand presence, and better data access. Over the past years, the rise of third-party sellers on Amazon is seen with the rising&nbsp;share&nbsp;of third-party sales as a % of its gross merchandise sales at 62% of total sales.</p><p><blockquote>作为第三方卖家在亚马逊上销售是卖家越来越受欢迎的选择。它最终提供了更多的灵活性和控制、更强的品牌形象和更好的数据访问。在过去的几年里，亚马逊上第三方卖家的崛起，第三方销售额占其商品总销售额的百分比不断上升，占总销售额的62%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed0a2a75af197d4bf9dca92caab27d6c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"539\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: FourWeekMBA</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：四周MBA</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The chart below further illustrates Amazon's large network of logistics and shipping. Its fulfillment center network is one of several ways it&nbsp;enhances&nbsp;its logistics and shipping process taking on FedEx and UPS and has been ramping up efforts to launch its delivery network as well with growing fleets of airplanes, drones and vans. Amazon's own logistics business&nbsp;delivered&nbsp;1.9 bln packages in the US.</p><p><blockquote>下图进一步说明了亚马逊庞大的物流和航运网络。其履行中心网络是其增强物流和运输流程的几种方式之一，与联邦快递和 UPS 竞争，并且一直在加大力度推出其送货网络，以及不断增长的飞机、无人机和货车机队。亚马逊自己的物流业务在美国递送了19亿个包裹。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5732f32df08132a67f1f9ead2376b2fb\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"233\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: WebFX</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：WebFX</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Moreover, its wide logistics and shipping coverage with over 100 active warehouses across the US with the highest number of facilities in California, Texas and New Jersey. Additionally, it is expanding heavily in the south with the highest number of planned warehouses. For example, the upcoming&nbsp;opening&nbsp;of a 1 million-square-foot fulfillmentcenter in Missouri in 2021 where employees will pack and ship larger-sized customer items like patio furniture, outdoor equipment or rugs. In 2020, it&nbsp;announced&nbsp;plans for 7 new fulfillmentcenters including a 600,000-square-foot facility in Florida, an 855,000-square foot facility in Tennessee and a 625,000square-foot fulfillment center in Texas.</p><p><blockquote>此外，其广泛的物流和运输覆盖范围，在美国拥有100多个活跃仓库，其中加利福尼亚州、德克萨斯州和新泽西州的设施数量最多。此外，它正在南部大力扩张，规划仓库数量最多。例如，密苏里州即将于2021年开设一个100万平方英尺的履行中心，员工将在那里包装和运输较大尺寸的客户物品，如庭院家具、户外设备或地毯。2020 年，该公司宣布了 7 个新履行中心的计划，包括佛罗里达州 600,000 平方英尺的设施、田纳西州 855,000 平方英尺的设施和德克萨斯州 625,000 平方英尺的履行中心。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d45f3a6df0a41b23e4f1d8fe2edb77d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: CNBC</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：CNBC</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Overall, these are among the factors which lead to the company's strength from its wide logistics network in terms of shipping speed. The company is highly popular for its speedy shipping and even has&nbsp;free&nbsp;Two-Day and even Same Day Shipping Programs for Prime members. Based on the survey below, the majority or 80% cited fast and free shipping as the major reason for choosing Amazon. We believe that the company's planned expansion would continue to enhance its logistics network and maintain its popularity among customers.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，这些都是导致该公司凭借其广泛的物流网络在运输速度方面实力的因素。该公司因其快速运输而非常受欢迎，甚至为Prime会员提供免费的两天甚至当天运输计划。根据下面的调查，大多数或80%的人认为快速和免费送货是选择亚马逊的主要原因。我们相信，本公司的扩张计划将继续加强其物流网络，并维持其在客户中的受欢迎程度。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4143366dbcb762fad253420cdb1b5f1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"409\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Statista</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> We forecasted the company's retail third-party seller services revenues which consist of fulfillment service-related revenues derived from the sales from third-party sellers. Amazon's third-party gross merchandise sales are forecasted to increase its share of total retail e-commerce sales as a growth rate of 9% based on the past 5-year average with the rising popularity of third-party sales on its marketplace. Moreover, we also forecasted the share of revenues that Amazon earns to grow by 1% from 27.3% based on the 2-year average as Amazon continues to expand its fulfillment capabilities to cater to its third-party sellers. This trend is also believed to be significant for margin expansion of the company as gross margins third-party seller services isestimatedto be between 60% to 75% of sales which is lower than AWS at 80% but still higher than the company's overall gross margin of 37% due to high costs tied up with the cost of sales which&nbsp;represents&nbsp;60% of its total sales.</p><p><blockquote>我们预测了公司的零售第三方卖家服务收入，其中包括来自第三方卖家销售的履行服务相关收入。随着第三方销售在其市场上越来越受欢迎，基于过去5年的平均水平，亚马逊的第三方商品总销售额预计将以9%的增长率增加其在零售电子商务总销售额中的份额。此外，随着亚马逊继续扩大其履行能力以迎合第三方卖家，我们还预测亚马逊的收入份额将从两年平均水平的 27.3% 增长 1%。这一趋势也被认为对公司的利润率扩张具有重要意义，因为第三方卖家服务的毛利率估计在销售额的 60% 至 75% 之间，低于 AWS 的 80%，但仍高于公司的整体毛利率 37% 由于高成本与占总销售额 60% 的销售成本相关。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>Third-Party Seller Services Revenues ($ bln)</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>第三方卖家服务收入（十亿美元）</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2016</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2016</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2017</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2017</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2018</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2018</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2019</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2019</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2020</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2020</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2021F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2021F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2022F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2022F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2023F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2023F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Global Retail E-commerce Sales ('a')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>全球零售电子商务销售额（“A”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1,845</p><p><blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2,382</p><p><blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2,982</p><p><blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>3,354</p><p><blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4,280</p><p><blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4,716</p><p><blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5,434</p><p><blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6,247</p><p><blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>29.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>12.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>10.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Amazon Third Party Market Share ('b')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊第三方市场份额（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>5.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>5.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5.4%</p><p><blockquote><td>5.4%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>6.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>6.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>7.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>7.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>8.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>8.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>8.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>21%</p><p><blockquote><td>21%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>-2%</p><p><blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>-2%</p><p><blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>11%</p><p><blockquote><td>11%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>16%</p><p><blockquote><td>16%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9%</p><p><blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9%</p><p><blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9%</p><p><blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Third-party (Amazon marketplace) GMV ('c')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>第三方（亚马逊市场）GMV（'c'）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>103</p><p><blockquote><td>103</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>130</p><p><blockquote><td>130</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>160</p><p><blockquote><td>160</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>200</p><p><blockquote><td>200</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>295</p><p><blockquote><td>295</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>353</p><p><blockquote><td>353</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>443</p><p><blockquote><td>443</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>553</p><p><blockquote><td>553</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>26.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>26.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>23.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>23.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>47.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>47.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>19.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>% Of Revenues ('d')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>占收入百分比（'d'）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>22.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>24.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>24.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>26.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>26.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>26.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>26.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>27.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>27.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>28.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>28.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>9.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>9.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>0.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>0.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>1.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Retail third-party seller services revenues ('e')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务收入（「e」）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22.99</p><p><blockquote><td>22.99</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>31.88</p><p><blockquote><td>31.88</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>42.75</p><p><blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>53.76</p><p><blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>80.46</p><p><blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>97.37</p><p><blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>123.25</p><p><blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>155.61</p><p><blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>38.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>38.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>34.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>49.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>21.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>26.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>26.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> <i>*C = A x B</i></p><p><blockquote><i>*C = A x B</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>*E = C x D</i></p><p><blockquote><i>*E = C x D</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Amazon, Statista, Khaveen Investments</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源：亚马逊、Statista、Khaveen Investments</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>AWS Growth by Data Volume Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AWS 通过数据量增长实现增长</b></blockquote></p><p> Another key area of growth of the company is cloud computing with notable largeclientssuch as Netflix (NFLX), Verizon (VZ), Capital One (COF), McDonald's (MCD). AWS revenues grew strongly at 29.5% in 2020 with a market share of 31.8% of the cloud infrastructuremarket. Since its launch nearly 2 decades ago, it has grown to become the market leader for years and looks set to maintain the status quo for the foreseeable future despite rising competition especially from Microsoft (MSFT) and Google gaining market share outpacing Amazon's growth.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的另一个关键增长领域是云计算，拥有 Netflix (NFLX)、Verizon (VZ)、Capital One (COF)、麦当劳 (MCD) 等著名大客户。2020年，AWS收入强劲增长29.5%，在云基础设施市场的市场份额为31.8%。自近20年前推出以来，它多年来已成长为市场领导者，尽管竞争日益激烈，尤其是来自微软（MSFT）和谷歌的市场份额超过了亚马逊的增长，但它似乎将在可预见的未来维持现状。</blockquote></p><p> The rapid growth of the cloud infrastructure market is underpinned by the rising volume of global data volume creation at aCAGRof 23% until 2025 as data volume is projected to grow to more than 180 zettabytes as the world becomes more data-driven with the rise of data analytics, 5G and IoT spurring the growth of data creation.</p><p><blockquote>云基础设施市场的快速增长是由aCAGRof全球数据量创建量的增长支撑的，到2025年将增长23%，因为随着数据分析的兴起，随着世界变得更加数据驱动，数据量预计将增长到180 zettabytes以上，5G和物联网刺激了数据创建的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d467bae68efe047fa8c695360d5b551c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen Investments</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We projected the growth of the cloud infrastructure market based on the forecasted growth of data volume at a 23%&nbsp;CAGR&nbsp;through 2025 at an average cloud infrastructure/data growth factor of 1.72.</p><p><blockquote>我们预测云基础设施市场的增长是基于到2025年数据量的预测复合年增长率为23%，平均云基础设施/数据增长系数为1.72。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd3a646de29cd8f5659eeaabcbf4831d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>* A = B x C Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>* a = B x C 资料来源：Statista、Khaveen Investments</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Thus, despite the plateauing market share of AWS as competitors like Microsoft outpaces its growth, we still believe in the massive opportunity in the cloud infrastructure market with the growing data volumes. Not to mention, the company has highlighted its commitment towards AWS with new client relationships such as major sports leagues around the world including National Hockey League, the PGA Tour, Formula 1 and the German Bundesliga. Furthermore, it also recently&nbsp;announced&nbsp;a relationship with Dish Network to build out cloud-based 5G infrastructure and would expand its data center footprint in Israel and the United Arab Emirates. It currently offers 80 availability zones across 25 geographic regions and plans to launch 15 more availability zones to support its cloud growth.</p><p><blockquote>因此，尽管随着微软等竞争对手的增长速度超过AWS的市场份额趋于稳定，但我们仍然相信随着数据量的增长，云基础设施市场存在巨大机遇。更不用说，该公司还通过新的客户关系强调了其对AWS的承诺，如世界各地的主要体育联盟，包括国家曲棍球联盟、PGA巡回赛、一级方程式赛车和德国德甲联赛。此外，它最近还宣布与Dish Network建立合作关系，建立基于云的5G基础设施，并将扩大其在以色列和阿拉伯联合酋长国的数据中心足迹。它目前在25个地理区域提供80个可用性区域，并计划再推出15个可用性区域，以支持其云的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ebc384fe7bf254090200574fd352254\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Canalys, Khaveen Investments</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：Canalys、Khaveen Investments</span></p></blockquote></p><p> All in all, we projected AWS's revenue growth based on our market share forecast assumptions that its market share leadership is slowly chipped away by fast-growing competitors notably Microsoft but still maintaining its market leadership backed by solid large client relationship leveraging AWS. Based on a forecasted market share of 30.7% by 2023, we expect AWS revenues to grow to $81.5 bln.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，我们预测 AWS 的收入增长是基于我们的市场份额预测假设，即其市场份额领先地位正在被快速增长的竞争对手（尤其是微软）慢慢蚕食，但在利用 AWS 的稳固大客户关系的支持下，仍保持其市场领先地位。基于到 2023 年 30.7% 的市场份额预测，我们预计 AWS 收入将增长至 815 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>AWS Forecasts</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>AWS预测</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2018</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2018</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2019</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2019</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2020</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2020</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2021F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2021F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2022F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2022F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2023F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2023F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>AWS Market Share</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>AWS 市场份额</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>32.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>32.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>32.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>32.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>31.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>31.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>31.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>31.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>31.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>30.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>30.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>AWS Revenues ($ bln)</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>AWS 收入（十亿美元）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.66</p><p><blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>35.03</p><p><blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>45.37</p><p><blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>54.58</p><p><blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>66.81</p><p><blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>81.52</p><p><blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>47.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>36.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>29.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>20.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22.4%</p><p><blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> <i>Source: Amazon, Canalys, Khaveen Investments</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源：亚马逊、Canalys、Khaveen Investments</i></blockquote></p><p> While AWS only makes up 11% of its total revenues, its superior margins of 29% compared to only 2.8% for the other company segments has AWS accounting for 59% of operating income in 2020 which highlights the significance of AWS to its bottom line.</p><p><blockquote>虽然 AWS 仅占其总收入的 11%，但其 29% 的利润率（而其他公司部门仅为 2.8%）使 AWS 在 2020 年占据了 59% 的经营利润，这凸显了 AWS 对其利润的重要性。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17ae44c90f44af56478935039edb4cc7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Amazon</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：亚马逊</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Antimonopoly and Data Privacy Fine Risk</b></p><p><blockquote><b>反垄断与数据隐私罚款风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Amazon has been&nbsp;involved&nbsp;in allegations of the company's approach to unfairly attain data and information from third-party sellers, stated by the Democrats' report with the company's e-commerce market share around 40% in the US. With the reliance of sellers on Amazon's sales channel, Amazon can charge sellers exceptional fees and further penalizing sellers for lowering their prices on other sites. Also, a bipartisan group of House lawmakers is pushing big tech including Amazon for anoverhaulof their business practices under an expansive set of antitrust reforms that would make it harder for dominant platforms to complete mergers and prohibit them from owning businesses that present clear conflicts of interest.</p><p><blockquote>民主党报告称，亚马逊一直被指控不公平地从第三方卖家获取数据和信息，该公司在美国的电子商务市场份额约为 40%。随着卖家对亚马逊销售渠道的依赖，亚马逊可以向卖家收取特殊费用，并进一步惩罚卖家在其他网站上降低价格的行为。此外，一个由两党众议院议员组成的小组正在推动包括亚马逊在内的大型科技公司根据一系列广泛的反垄断改革对其商业行为进行彻底改革，这将使占主导地位的平台更难完成合并，并禁止它们拥有存在明显利益冲突的业务。</blockquote></p><p> Whereas in the&nbsp;European Union, Amazon has been hit with the largest GDPR fine to date. The EU is moving beyond data breaches and zeroing in on data practices. Amazon faced a $888 million fine from violating the bloc's data protection rules. Amazon has been accused to violate the EU's General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). GDPR allows forfinesof up to 4% of Amazon's revenue, which the released number indicated around 4.2% of Amazon's $21.3 billion income in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>而在欧盟，亚马逊受到了迄今为止最大的GDPR罚款。欧盟正在超越数据泄露，专注于数据实践。亚马逊因违反欧盟数据保护规则而面临 8.88 亿美元的罚款。亚马逊被指控违反欧盟通用数据保护条例（GDPR）。GDPR 允许对亚马逊收入处以高达 4% 的罚款，公布的数字显示，这约占亚马逊 2020 年 213 亿美元收入的 4.2%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> The company has had average revenue growth of 29.4% in the past 5 years with an average gross and net margin of 38.6% and 3.5% respectively. The strength of the company is its rising margins as its net margins have risen due to the superior growth of its cloud segment which commands higher margins. The AWS segment has a high operating margin of 29.6% versus 2.8% for the remaining business segments.</p><p><blockquote>该公司过去5年的平均收入增长率为29.4%，平均毛利率和净利润率分别为38.6%和3.5%。该公司的优势在于其不断上升的利润率，因为其云业务的出色增长导致其净利润率上升，而云业务的利润率更高。AWS 部门的营业利润率高达 29.6%，而其余业务部门的营业利润率为 2.8%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a075f1644a849d94c77b8707596cf501\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：亚马逊、Khaveen Investments</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> More importantly, the company has decent and imposing cash-generating abilities with an average FCF margin of 3.01% in the past 5 years. In 2017, its FCF margin dipped due to the&nbsp;acquisition&nbsp;of Whole Foods for $13.7 bln. The strength of its cash flows is the rising margins as its AWS business which is more profitable exhibits a higher growth than other segments.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，该公司拥有不错且令人信服的现金产生能力，过去 5 年平均自由现金流利润率为 3.01%。2017年，由于以137亿美元收购全食超市，其自由现金流利润率下降。其现金流的优势在于不断上升的利润率，因为其利润更高的 AWS 业务比其他部门表现出更高的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78710672b48942ad15fa6ecdd9fffaf9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：亚马逊、Khaveen Investments</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The company's balance sheet strength is its strong ability to meet its debt obligations. It has a net debt of $113 bln in 2020 with an EBITDA/interest coverage ratio of 44x in 2020. Its ratio has steadily increased in the past 5 years from 32x as it grew its profitability with the superior growth of AWS.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的资产负债表实力在于其履行债务义务的强大能力。该公司2020年的净债务为1130亿美元，2020年EBITDA/利息覆盖率为44倍。随着 AWS 的卓越增长，其盈利能力不断提高，其比率在过去 5 年中从 32 倍稳步增长。</blockquote></p><p> To value Amazon, we used a DCF valuation as the company has had positive free cash flows in the past. We got an industry average EV/EBITDA of 27.64x based on comparable companies as shown in the table below.</p><p><blockquote>为了对亚马逊进行估值，我们使用了 DCF 估值，因为该公司过去有正的自由现金流。基于可比公司，我们得到了27.64倍的行业平均EV/EBITDA，如下表所示。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>Company</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>公司</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>EV/EBITDA</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>EV/EBITDA</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Amazon</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>28.57x</p><p><blockquote><td>28.57倍</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Alibaba (BABA)</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>阿里巴巴-SW（巴巴）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>21.14x</p><p><blockquote><td>21.14倍</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Microsoft</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>微软</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.89x</p><p><blockquote><td>25.89倍</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Google</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>谷歌</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22.46x</p><p><blockquote><td>22.46倍</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Average</b></p><p><blockquote><tr><td><b>均值</b></td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>24.52x</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>24.52倍</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> <i>Source: SeekingAlpha</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：SeekingAlpha</i></blockquote></p><p> The revenue growth projections aresummarized below based on the revenue breakdown by its online stores, physical stores, retail third party seller services, subscription services, AWS and others. The online store projections are derived from its market share assumption on the forecasted growth of the e-commerce market while physical store sales are based on the retail sales growth rate forecast of 7.2% in 2021. Retail third-party seller services are derived from its share of third-party seller GMV of the total e-commerce market and an assumption of a % cut it earns as revenues from commissions and related fees. The AWS revenues are projected from the cloud market growth based on the rising data volumes forecasts. Other segments are based on its average 3-year growth rates. Beyond 2023, we tapered down our growth forecasts with a weighted CAGR of 14.2% of the e-commerce and cloud computing market through 2027 and tapering down from 12.3% in 2027 with an annual decrease of 2% per year until 2030 as we expect the e-commerce market to become more mature.</p><p><blockquote>收入增长预测根据其在线商店、实体店、零售第三方卖家服务、订阅服务、AWS 等的收入明细总结如下。网上商店的预测来自其对电子商务市场预测增长的市场份额假设，而实体店销售则基于2021年7.2%的零售销售增长率预测。零售第三方卖家服务来自其在整个电子商务市场的第三方卖家GMV中的份额，以及其从佣金和相关费用中获得的1%的收入的假设。根据不断增长的数据量预测，AWS 收入来自云市场的增长。其他分部基于其三年平均增长率。2023年之后，我们下调了增长预测，到2027年，电子商务和云计算市场的加权复合年增长率为14.2%，从2027年的12.3%下调，直到2030年每年下降2%，因为我们预计电子商务市场将变得更加成熟。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>Amazon Revenue Projections ($ bln)</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>亚马逊收入预测（十亿美元）</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2018</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2018</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2019</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2019</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2020</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2020</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2021F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2021F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2022F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2022F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2023F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2023F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Online stores</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>网上商店</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>122.99</p><p><blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>141.25</p><p><blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>197.35</p><p><blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>211.74</p><p><blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>244.02</p><p><blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>280.50</p><p><blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>13.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>14.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>39.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>7.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Physical stores</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>实体店</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>17.22</p><p><blockquote><td>17.22</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>17.19</p><p><blockquote><td>17.19</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>16.23</p><p><blockquote><td>16.23</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>17.40</p><p><blockquote><td>17.40</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>18.55</p><p><blockquote><td>18.55</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19.38</p><p><blockquote><td>19.38</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>196.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>196.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>-0.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>-0.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>-5.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>-5.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>7.20%</p><p><blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6.60%</p><p><blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.50%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Retail third-party seller services</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>42.75</p><p><blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>53.76</p><p><blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>80.46</p><p><blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>97.37</p><p><blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>123.25</p><p><blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>155.61</p><p><blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>34.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>49.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>21.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>26.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>26.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Subscription services</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>订阅服务</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>14.17</p><p><blockquote><td>14.17</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19.21</p><p><blockquote><td>19.21</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.21</p><p><blockquote><td>25.21</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>34.67</p><p><blockquote><td>34.67</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>47.68</p><p><blockquote><td>47.68</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>65.58</p><p><blockquote><td>65.58</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>45.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>35.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>35.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>31.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>37.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>37.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>37.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>AWS</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>AWS</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.66</p><p><blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>35.03</p><p><blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>45.37</p><p><blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>54.58</p><p><blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>66.81</p><p><blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>81.52</p><p><blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>47.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>36.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>29.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>20.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22.4%</p><p><blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Other</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>其他的</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>10.11</p><p><blockquote><td>10.11</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>14.09</p><p><blockquote><td>14.09</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>21.45</p><p><blockquote><td>21.45</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>31.27</p><p><blockquote><td>31.27</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>45.60</p><p><blockquote><td>45.60</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>66.48</p><p><blockquote><td>66.48</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>117.4%</p><p><blockquote><td>117.4%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>39.4%</p><p><blockquote><td>39.4%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>52.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>52.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>45.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></p><p></td>    <td>45.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>45.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Total</b></p><p><blockquote><tr><td><b>总的</b></td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>232.9</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>232.9</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>280.53</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>280.53</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>386.07</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>386.07</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>447.0</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>447.0</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>545.9</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>545.9</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>669.1</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>669.1</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Total Growth %</b></p><p><blockquote><tr><td><b>总增长%</b></td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>30.9%</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>30.9%</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>20.5%</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>20.5%</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>37.6%</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>37.6%</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>15.8%</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>15.8%</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>22.1%</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>22.1%</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>22.6%</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>22.6%</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> <i>Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源：亚马逊、Khaveen Investments</i></blockquote></p><p> Based on a discount rate of 12.7% (company's WACC), our model shows an upside of 36.9%.</p><p><blockquote>基于 12.7% 的贴现率（公司的 WACC），我们的模型显示上涨空间为 36.9%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74c5d7c65d544d533d2e87bb62270fb1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Khaveen Investments</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：卡文投资</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Verdict</b></p><p><blockquote><b>裁决</b></blockquote></p><p> In conclusion, weanalyzed the company's key growth drivers namely the online retail, third-party seller services and AWS. While the accelerated growth eventually winds down, its growth outlook remains highly attractive as an established and dominant market leader in e-commerce. The share of e-commerce sales as a % of total retail sales is forecasted to keep marching higher with the shift of consumers buyingbehavior towards e-commerce with a forecasted rate of 22% by 2023. The company's Prime member provides it with a loyal customer base roughly half of the US population. Moreover, another key strength is its vast logistics and shipping network and Amazon FBA seeing the continued rise of third-party sellers on its online marketplace. Finally, AWS remains the clear market leader in the foreseeable future with close relationships with large corporate clients and continuous commitment by management to cater to the growing infrastructure needs of the segment. Thus, despite the expected normalizing growth in 2021, we believe that its outlook continued to be buoyed by the rising e-commerce and cloud computing market and revised our growth rate projections to 15.8% in 2021 followed by 22% in 2020. Overall, we rate the stock as a<i>Buy</i>with a price target of<i>$4,363.96.</i></p><p><blockquote>总之，我们分析了公司的主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方卖家服务和 AWS。虽然加速增长最终会结束，但作为电子商务领域的老牌市场领导者，其增长前景仍然极具吸引力。随着消费者购买行为向电子商务的转变，预计到 2023 年，电子商务销售额占零售总额的百分比将继续上升，预计这一比例将达到 22%。该公司的主要会员为其提供了大约一半美国人口的忠实客户群。此外，另一个关键优势是其庞大的物流和航运网络，亚马逊FBA看到其在线市场上第三方卖家的持续增长。最后，在可预见的未来，AWS 仍然是明显的市场领导者，与大型企业客户保持着密切的关系，并且管理层不断致力于满足该领域不断增长的基础设施需求。因此，尽管预期2021年增长将恢复正常，但我们相信其前景将继续受到不断增长的电子商务和云计算市场的提振，并将2021年的增长率预测修订为15.8%，2020年为22%。总体而言，我们将该股评级为<i>购买</i>目标价为<i>$4,363.96.</i></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon: Stock Still Attractive With Shift Towards E-Commerce And Cloud Growth<blockquote>亚马逊：随着转向电子商务和云增长，股票仍然具有吸引力</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon: Stock Still Attractive With Shift Towards E-Commerce And Cloud Growth<blockquote>亚马逊：随着转向电子商务和云增长，股票仍然具有吸引力</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-08 11:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth rate forecast to 15.8%.</li>  <li>While growth is moderating following a stellar year with robust activity, the company remains poised to benefit from the e-commerce shift with a forecast penetration rate of 22% of retail.</li>  <li>AWS is expected to remain as the number 1 market leader for the foreseeable future.</li>  <li>We revised our valuation using DCF analysis to obtain a new price target of $4,303,18 from $3,358.73.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2ca0bbeb0cb7be66a257f4e9d5f5fa1\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>4kodiak/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>公司2020年的收入增长超出了我们的预期，我们将其增长率预测修正为15.8%。</li><li>尽管在经历了强劲活动的辉煌一年后，增长正在放缓，但该公司仍准备从电子商务转变中受益，预计零售渗透率为 22%。</li><li>在可预见的未来，AWS 预计仍将是第一大市场领导者。</li><li>我们使用 DCF 分析修改了估值，从 3,358.73 美元获得了 4,303,18 美元的新目标价。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>4kodiak/iStock 未通过 Getty Images 发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Since our previous&nbsp;coverage, Amazon Inc.'s (AMZN) stock has risen by 26% and exceeded our revenue growth expectations of 24.5% and finished 2020 up by 37.6% on exceptional growth of its online retail business growing by 40% to nearly $200 bln and third-party services at $80bln. In this analysis, we re-examine its key growth drivers namely online retail, third party services and AWS.</p><p><blockquote>自我们之前的报道以来，亚马逊公司 (AMZN) 的股价已上涨 26%，超过了我们 24.5% 的收入增长预期，并在 2020 年底上涨了 37.6%，原因是其在线零售业务增长了 40%，达到近 2000 亿美元，第三方服务为 800 亿美元。在本分析中，我们重新审视了其主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方服务和 AWS。</blockquote></p><p> Despite the softness in Q2 of its online store sales growth of 13% and soft Q3&nbsp;guidance&nbsp;of 13% YoY at the midpoint, indicating a sign of normalizing growth, the secular growth outlook of the e-commerce market remains attractive from the continued shift towards online retail which Amazon has an established market position. As more consumers shift their purchasing behavior online, the share of e-commerce is forecasted to reach 22% by 2023 from 18% in 2020. We believe that Amazon's well-established market position with a massive Prime membership base as loyal customers and solid logistics and shipping network providing it with an advantage as seen with the rise of its e-commerce marketplace with third-party sellers. Moreover, its cloud business is expected to remain the market leader of the cloud infrastructure market for the foreseeable future with continued commitment towards growth and underpinned by rising data volumes.</p><p><blockquote>尽管第二季度在线商店销售额增长 13%，第三季度中点同比增长 13%，表明增长正常化的迹象，但由于亚马逊继续转向在线零售，电子商务市场的长期增长前景仍然具有吸引力，亚马逊在在线零售方面拥有既定的市场地位。随着越来越多的消费者将购买行为转移到网上，预计到 2023 年，电子商务的份额将从 2020 年的 18% 达到 22%。我们相信，亚马逊稳固的市场地位、庞大的 Prime 会员基础（作为忠实客户）以及稳固的物流和运输网络为其提供了优势，这一点从其电子商务市场与第三方卖家的崛起中可见一斑。此外，在可预见的未来，其云业务预计仍将是云基础设施市场的市场领导者，并将继续致力于增长，并以不断增长的数据量为支撑。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a78658eabc40ec60c6713019d6f800c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Amazon</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：亚马逊</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>E-commerce Sales Outlook Still Attractive Despite Normalizing Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>尽管增长正常化，电子商务销售前景仍然有吸引力</b></blockquote></p><p> Amazon's online store&nbsp;sales&nbsp;have surged 40% in 2020 from 14.8% in the prior year as it benefitted from the prolonged lockdowns and restrictions on physical retailers which saw the accelerated shift towards e-commerce adoption. However, despite the slowdown in its online store growth in Q2 2021 of 13% YoY compared to 41% in Q1, we believe that the company is poised to continue reaping the secular tailwinds of the rising e-commerce adoption.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊的在线商店销售额在2020年从上一年的14.8%飙升了40%，因为它受益于对实体零售商的长期封锁和限制，这加速了向电子商务的转变。然而，尽管 2021 年第二季度其在线商店增长同比放缓 13%，而第一季度为 41%，但我们相信该公司已准备好继续收获电子商务采用率上升的长期顺风。</blockquote></p><p> According to eMarketer, the share of e-commerce sales is forecasted to&nbsp;reach&nbsp;22% of global retail sales as consumers continue to shift towards online buying. Global retail sales are forecasted to bound back by 7.2% with the vaccination drives across the world and easing business restrictions. Thus, the e-commerce sales forecast is 10.2% in 2021 which represents a normalized growth from 27.6% in 2019 as the penetration rate surged to 18% from 14% in the past year.</p><p><blockquote>根据eMarketer的数据，随着消费者继续转向网上购物，电子商务销售的份额预计将达到全球零售额的22%。随着全球疫苗接种运动和商业限制的放松，全球零售额预计将回升7.2%。因此，由于渗透率从去年的14%飙升至18%，2021年的电子商务销售额预测为10.2%，较2019年的27.6%正常增长。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>Global E-Commerce Market ($ bln)</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>全球电子商务市场（十亿美元）</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2016</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2016</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2017</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2017</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2018</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2018</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2019</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2019</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2020</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2020</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2021F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2021F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2022F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2022F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2023F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2023F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Total Global Retail Sales ('a')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>全球零售总额（“A”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>21,453</p><p><blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22,904</p><p><blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>23,560</p><p><blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>24,780</p><p><blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>23,778</p><p><blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25,490</p><p><blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27,172</p><p><blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>28,395</p><p><blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>-4.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>7.20%</p><p><blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6.60%</p><p><blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.50%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1,845</p><p><blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2,382</p><p><blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2,982</p><p><blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>3,354</p><p><blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4,280</p><p><blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4,716</p><p><blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5,434</p><p><blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6,247</p><p><blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>29.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>12.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>10.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Penetration Rate ('c')</b></p><p><blockquote><tr><td><b>渗透率（'c'）</b></td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9%</p><p><blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>10%</p><p><blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>12%</p><p><blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>14%</p><p><blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>18%</p><p><blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19%</p><p><blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>20%</p><p><blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22%</p><p><blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> <i>* B = C x A</i></p><p><blockquote><i>* B = C x A</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Statista, eMarketer, Khaveen Investments</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源：Statista、eMarketer、Khaveen Investments</i></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Amazon's established market positioning is an added competitive strength of it to capitalize on the market growth. More specifically, it is hard to win over the company in the key criteria of price, choice and convenience. Evidently, the company's Prime membership continued to grow in 2020 by 15% to 142.5 mln members or roughly 43% of the US&nbsp;population. This indicates the strong attraction of loyal customers to the company providing it with a massive install base. Through Prime membership, consumers are also pushed to buy more to obtain various benefits.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊既定的市场定位是其利用市场增长的额外竞争实力。更具体地说，在价格、选择和便利性等关键标准上，很难赢得该公司的青睐。显然，该公司的主要会员在2020年继续增长15%，达到1.425亿会员，约占美国人口的43%。这表明忠实客户对该公司的强大吸引力，为其提供了庞大的安装基础。通过Prime会员，也促使消费者购买更多，以获得各种福利。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/125c2baa1b52e2787075210f05321e20\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"492\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Backlinko</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Backlinko</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In addition to Prime members, the company has been able to consistently&nbsp;attract&nbsp;sellers to its platform with 3.3 mln new sellers since 2017 or 3,718 per day. Currently, it has 9.7 mlnsellersworldwide across the US, UK, Germany, Japan, etc. Thus, the company has established itself as the dominant market leader and is far ahead of its next closest competitor in terms of e-commerce sales.</p><p><blockquote>除了Prime会员，该公司自2017年以来一直能够持续吸引卖家到其平台，有330万新卖家，即每天3718家。目前，它在美国、英国、德国、日本等地拥有970万卖家。因此，该公司已成为占主导地位的市场领导者，并在电子商务销售方面远远领先于其次最接近的竞争对手。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6272ba7ee8cf6f5aab477b8425f34923\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"355\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Marketing Charts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：营销图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Its market leadership is quite extensive across different product categories and markets as illustrated in the table below. For example, it accounts for Its consumer &amp; consumer electronics sales is the largest product category accounting for 50.2% of the products' total e-commerce sales in the US and 26.7% of total retail sales. This is followed by apparel &amp; accessories, books music &amp; video and furniture and home furnishings which is 32%, 83.2% and 34.2 % of e-commerce sales.</p><p><blockquote>如下表所示，其市场领导地位在不同的产品类别和市场中相当广泛。例如，其消费电子产品销售额是最大的产品类别，占美国电子商务产品总销售额的 50.2%，占零售总额的 26.7%。其次是服装和配饰、书籍、音乐和视频以及家具和家居用品，分别占电子商务销售额的32%、83.2%和34.2%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6765530fd408a02c75515a712af4087\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"725\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: eMarketer</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：eMarketer</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Among the product categories, the electronics category is the most popular among shoppers in the US with 44% of US shoppers having&nbsp;purchased&nbsp;electronics on Amazon. It also sells its own electronicdevicesincluding Echo smart speakers which account for 70% of the US market share followed by Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) and continues to develop the product with newer generations and software&nbsp;updates. In 2020, the company shipped over 38 mln smart speaker&nbsp;units&nbsp;and accounted for 28.3% of the global market share of shipments. We estimated its revenues from the sale of its smart speakers based on the average&nbsp;price&nbsp;of the Echo product family of $103 to be around $3.94 bln in revenues which is around 2% of its online store revenues. However, it also faces increasing competition especially from the Chinese manufacturers such as Baidu (BIDU) and Xiaomi (OTCPK:XIACF) which dominate the China market.</p><p><blockquote>在产品类别中，电子产品类别最受美国购物者欢迎，44%的美国购物者在亚马逊上购买过电子产品。它还销售自己的电子设备，包括Echo智能扬声器，占美国市场份额的70%，其次是谷歌（GOOG）和苹果（AAPL），并继续开发新一代产品和软件更新。2020年，该公司智能音箱出货量超过3800万台，占全球出货量市场份额的28.3%。根据 Echo 产品系列 103 美元的平均价格，我们估计其智能扬声器销售收入约为 39.4 亿美元，约占其在线商店收入的 2%。然而，它也面临着日益激烈的竞争，尤其是来自主导中国市场的百度（BIDU）和小米（OTCPK：XIACF）等中国制造商的竞争。</blockquote></p><p> All in all, the company has a massive product breadth of 12 mln&nbsp;products&nbsp;excluding books, media, wine and services and with the growing seller base, we expect this product breadth to continue to be expanded and provide customers unique value proposition with product variety.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，该公司拥有1200万种产品，不包括书籍、媒体、葡萄酒和服务，随着卖家基础的增长，我们预计这一产品范围将继续扩大，并通过产品种类为客户提供独特的价值主张。</blockquote></p><p> Thus, we expect its solid market dominance with an ecosystem of an established customer base and loyal Prime members and a large seller base with extensive market leadership across various key product categories with a broad product breadth to support its long-term growth. We projected its online store growth based on our expectation of its market share at 4.5% based on a 5-year average on the global e-commerce sales.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们预计其拥有稳固的市场主导地位，拥有由已建立的客户群和忠诚的 Prime 会员组成的生态系统，以及在各种关键产品类别中拥有广泛市场领导地位的大型卖家基础，产品范围广泛，以支持其长期增长。我们预测其在线商店的增长基于我们对其市场份额的预期，基于全球电子商务销售额的 5 年平均水平，为 4.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>Amazon Online Stores ($ bln)</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>亚马逊在线商店（十亿美元）</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2016</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2016</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2017</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2017</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2018</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2018</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2019</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2019</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2020</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2020</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2021F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2021F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2022F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2022F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2023F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2023F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Total Retail Sales ('a')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>零售总额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>21,453</p><p><blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22,904</p><p><blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>23,560</p><p><blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>24,780</p><p><blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>23,778</p><p><blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25,490</p><p><blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27,172</p><p><blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>28,395</p><p><blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>-4.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>7.20%</p><p><blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6.60%</p><p><blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.50%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1,845</p><p><blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2,382</p><p><blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2,982</p><p><blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>3,354</p><p><blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4,280</p><p><blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4,716</p><p><blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5,434</p><p><blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6,247</p><p><blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>29.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>12.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>10.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Penetration Rate ('c')</b></p><p><blockquote><tr><td><b>渗透率（'c'）</b></td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9%</p><p><blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></p><p></p><p></td>    <td>10%</p><p><blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>12%</p><p><blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>14%</p><p><blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>18%</p><p><blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19%</p><p><blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>20%</p><p><blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22%</p><p><blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>16.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>16.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>20.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>20.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>17.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>17.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>11.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>11.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>32.4%</p><p><blockquote><td>32.4%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>2.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>8.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>10.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>10.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Amazon Online Stores Revenues ('d')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店收入（“d”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>91.43</p><p><blockquote><td>91.43</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>108.35</p><p><blockquote><td>108.35</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>122.99</p><p><blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>141.25</p><p><blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>197.35</p><p><blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>211.74</p><p><blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>244.02</p><p><blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>280.50</p><p><blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>18.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>18.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>13.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>14.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>39.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>7.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Amazon Online Stores Market Share ('e')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店市场份额（“e”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>5.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> <i>* B = A x C</i></p><p><blockquote><i>* B = A x C</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>*D = B x E</i></p><p><blockquote><i>*D = B x E</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen Investments</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Rise of Third-party Seller Services</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第三方卖家服务的兴起</b></blockquote></p><p> Another major advantage of the company is its logistics and shipping operations, which has become an impenetrable moat that few other companies will ever have the resources or ability to match, with Amazon partnering with most major delivery providers in the country. By leveraging its robust network, it offers programs to enable sellers to sell their products through its marketplace and fulfill orders through the company.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的另一个主要优势是其物流和航运业务，这已经成为一条坚不可摧的护城河，很少有其他公司有资源或能力与之匹敌，亚马逊与该国大多数主要的送货提供商都有合作。通过利用其强大的网络，它提供了使卖家能够通过其市场销售产品并通过公司履行订单的计划。</blockquote></p><p> With Fulfillment by Amazon ('FBA'), third party sellersstore&nbsp;products in Amazon's fulfillment centers, and it picks, packs, ships, and provide customer service for these products. Amazon is not the seller but earns commissions and related fulfillment and shipping fees including inventory management, payment processing, shipment tracking and reporting from the arrangements from its third-party sellers who are largely comprised of small- and medium-sized businesses.</p><p><blockquote>通过亚马逊履行（“FBA”），第三方卖家在亚马逊的履行中心存储产品，并为这些产品挑选、包装、运输和提供客户服务。亚马逊不是卖家，但从主要由中小型企业组成的第三方卖家的安排中赚取佣金和相关的履行和运输费用，包括库存管理、支付处理、运输跟踪和报告。</blockquote></p><p> Selling on Amazon as a third-party seller is an increasingly popular option for sellers. It ultimately&nbsp;provides&nbsp;more flexibility and control, a stronger brand presence, and better data access. Over the past years, the rise of third-party sellers on Amazon is seen with the rising&nbsp;share&nbsp;of third-party sales as a % of its gross merchandise sales at 62% of total sales.</p><p><blockquote>作为第三方卖家在亚马逊上销售是卖家越来越受欢迎的选择。它最终提供了更多的灵活性和控制、更强的品牌形象和更好的数据访问。在过去的几年里，亚马逊上第三方卖家的崛起，第三方销售额占其商品总销售额的百分比不断上升，占总销售额的62%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed0a2a75af197d4bf9dca92caab27d6c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"539\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: FourWeekMBA</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：四周MBA</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The chart below further illustrates Amazon's large network of logistics and shipping. Its fulfillment center network is one of several ways it&nbsp;enhances&nbsp;its logistics and shipping process taking on FedEx and UPS and has been ramping up efforts to launch its delivery network as well with growing fleets of airplanes, drones and vans. Amazon's own logistics business&nbsp;delivered&nbsp;1.9 bln packages in the US.</p><p><blockquote>下图进一步说明了亚马逊庞大的物流和航运网络。其履行中心网络是其增强物流和运输流程的几种方式之一，与联邦快递和 UPS 竞争，并且一直在加大力度推出其送货网络，以及不断增长的飞机、无人机和货车机队。亚马逊自己的物流业务在美国递送了19亿个包裹。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5732f32df08132a67f1f9ead2376b2fb\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"233\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: WebFX</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：WebFX</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Moreover, its wide logistics and shipping coverage with over 100 active warehouses across the US with the highest number of facilities in California, Texas and New Jersey. Additionally, it is expanding heavily in the south with the highest number of planned warehouses. For example, the upcoming&nbsp;opening&nbsp;of a 1 million-square-foot fulfillmentcenter in Missouri in 2021 where employees will pack and ship larger-sized customer items like patio furniture, outdoor equipment or rugs. In 2020, it&nbsp;announced&nbsp;plans for 7 new fulfillmentcenters including a 600,000-square-foot facility in Florida, an 855,000-square foot facility in Tennessee and a 625,000square-foot fulfillment center in Texas.</p><p><blockquote>此外，其广泛的物流和运输覆盖范围，在美国拥有100多个活跃仓库，其中加利福尼亚州、德克萨斯州和新泽西州的设施数量最多。此外，它正在南部大力扩张，规划仓库数量最多。例如，密苏里州即将于2021年开设一个100万平方英尺的履行中心，员工将在那里包装和运输较大尺寸的客户物品，如庭院家具、户外设备或地毯。2020 年，该公司宣布了 7 个新履行中心的计划，包括佛罗里达州 600,000 平方英尺的设施、田纳西州 855,000 平方英尺的设施和德克萨斯州 625,000 平方英尺的履行中心。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d45f3a6df0a41b23e4f1d8fe2edb77d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: CNBC</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：CNBC</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Overall, these are among the factors which lead to the company's strength from its wide logistics network in terms of shipping speed. The company is highly popular for its speedy shipping and even has&nbsp;free&nbsp;Two-Day and even Same Day Shipping Programs for Prime members. Based on the survey below, the majority or 80% cited fast and free shipping as the major reason for choosing Amazon. We believe that the company's planned expansion would continue to enhance its logistics network and maintain its popularity among customers.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，这些都是导致该公司凭借其广泛的物流网络在运输速度方面实力的因素。该公司因其快速运输而非常受欢迎，甚至为Prime会员提供免费的两天甚至当天运输计划。根据下面的调查，大多数或80%的人认为快速和免费送货是选择亚马逊的主要原因。我们相信，本公司的扩张计划将继续加强其物流网络，并维持其在客户中的受欢迎程度。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4143366dbcb762fad253420cdb1b5f1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"409\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Statista</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> We forecasted the company's retail third-party seller services revenues which consist of fulfillment service-related revenues derived from the sales from third-party sellers. Amazon's third-party gross merchandise sales are forecasted to increase its share of total retail e-commerce sales as a growth rate of 9% based on the past 5-year average with the rising popularity of third-party sales on its marketplace. Moreover, we also forecasted the share of revenues that Amazon earns to grow by 1% from 27.3% based on the 2-year average as Amazon continues to expand its fulfillment capabilities to cater to its third-party sellers. This trend is also believed to be significant for margin expansion of the company as gross margins third-party seller services isestimatedto be between 60% to 75% of sales which is lower than AWS at 80% but still higher than the company's overall gross margin of 37% due to high costs tied up with the cost of sales which&nbsp;represents&nbsp;60% of its total sales.</p><p><blockquote>我们预测了公司的零售第三方卖家服务收入，其中包括来自第三方卖家销售的履行服务相关收入。随着第三方销售在其市场上越来越受欢迎，基于过去5年的平均水平，亚马逊的第三方商品总销售额预计将以9%的增长率增加其在零售电子商务总销售额中的份额。此外，随着亚马逊继续扩大其履行能力以迎合第三方卖家，我们还预测亚马逊的收入份额将从两年平均水平的 27.3% 增长 1%。这一趋势也被认为对公司的利润率扩张具有重要意义，因为第三方卖家服务的毛利率估计在销售额的 60% 至 75% 之间，低于 AWS 的 80%，但仍高于公司的整体毛利率 37% 由于高成本与占总销售额 60% 的销售成本相关。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>Third-Party Seller Services Revenues ($ bln)</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>第三方卖家服务收入（十亿美元）</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2016</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2016</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2017</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2017</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2018</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2018</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2019</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2019</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2020</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2020</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2021F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2021F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2022F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2022F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2023F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2023F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Global Retail E-commerce Sales ('a')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>全球零售电子商务销售额（“A”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1,845</p><p><blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2,382</p><p><blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2,982</p><p><blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>3,354</p><p><blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4,280</p><p><blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4,716</p><p><blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5,434</p><p><blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6,247</p><p><blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>29.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>12.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>10.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Amazon Third Party Market Share ('b')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊第三方市场份额（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>5.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>5.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5.4%</p><p><blockquote><td>5.4%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>6.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>6.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>7.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>7.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>8.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>8.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>8.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>21%</p><p><blockquote><td>21%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>-2%</p><p><blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>-2%</p><p><blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>11%</p><p><blockquote><td>11%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>16%</p><p><blockquote><td>16%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9%</p><p><blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9%</p><p><blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9%</p><p><blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Third-party (Amazon marketplace) GMV ('c')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>第三方（亚马逊市场）GMV（'c'）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>103</p><p><blockquote><td>103</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>130</p><p><blockquote><td>130</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>160</p><p><blockquote><td>160</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>200</p><p><blockquote><td>200</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>295</p><p><blockquote><td>295</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>353</p><p><blockquote><td>353</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>443</p><p><blockquote><td>443</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>553</p><p><blockquote><td>553</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>26.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>26.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>23.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>23.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>47.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>47.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>19.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>% Of Revenues ('d')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>占收入百分比（'d'）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>22.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>24.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>24.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>26.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>26.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>26.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>26.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>27.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>27.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>28.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>28.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>9.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>9.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>0.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>0.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>1.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Retail third-party seller services revenues ('e')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务收入（「e」）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22.99</p><p><blockquote><td>22.99</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>31.88</p><p><blockquote><td>31.88</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>42.75</p><p><blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>53.76</p><p><blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>80.46</p><p><blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>97.37</p><p><blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>123.25</p><p><blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>155.61</p><p><blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>38.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>38.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>34.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>49.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>21.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>26.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>26.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> <i>*C = A x B</i></p><p><blockquote><i>*C = A x B</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>*E = C x D</i></p><p><blockquote><i>*E = C x D</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Amazon, Statista, Khaveen Investments</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源：亚马逊、Statista、Khaveen Investments</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>AWS Growth by Data Volume Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AWS 通过数据量增长实现增长</b></blockquote></p><p> Another key area of growth of the company is cloud computing with notable largeclientssuch as Netflix (NFLX), Verizon (VZ), Capital One (COF), McDonald's (MCD). AWS revenues grew strongly at 29.5% in 2020 with a market share of 31.8% of the cloud infrastructuremarket. Since its launch nearly 2 decades ago, it has grown to become the market leader for years and looks set to maintain the status quo for the foreseeable future despite rising competition especially from Microsoft (MSFT) and Google gaining market share outpacing Amazon's growth.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的另一个关键增长领域是云计算，拥有 Netflix (NFLX)、Verizon (VZ)、Capital One (COF)、麦当劳 (MCD) 等著名大客户。2020年，AWS收入强劲增长29.5%，在云基础设施市场的市场份额为31.8%。自近20年前推出以来，它多年来已成长为市场领导者，尽管竞争日益激烈，尤其是来自微软（MSFT）和谷歌的市场份额超过了亚马逊的增长，但它似乎将在可预见的未来维持现状。</blockquote></p><p> The rapid growth of the cloud infrastructure market is underpinned by the rising volume of global data volume creation at aCAGRof 23% until 2025 as data volume is projected to grow to more than 180 zettabytes as the world becomes more data-driven with the rise of data analytics, 5G and IoT spurring the growth of data creation.</p><p><blockquote>云基础设施市场的快速增长是由aCAGRof全球数据量创建量的增长支撑的，到2025年将增长23%，因为随着数据分析的兴起，随着世界变得更加数据驱动，数据量预计将增长到180 zettabytes以上，5G和物联网刺激了数据创建的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d467bae68efe047fa8c695360d5b551c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen Investments</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We projected the growth of the cloud infrastructure market based on the forecasted growth of data volume at a 23%&nbsp;CAGR&nbsp;through 2025 at an average cloud infrastructure/data growth factor of 1.72.</p><p><blockquote>我们预测云基础设施市场的增长是基于到2025年数据量的预测复合年增长率为23%，平均云基础设施/数据增长系数为1.72。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd3a646de29cd8f5659eeaabcbf4831d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>* A = B x C Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>* a = B x C 资料来源：Statista、Khaveen Investments</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Thus, despite the plateauing market share of AWS as competitors like Microsoft outpaces its growth, we still believe in the massive opportunity in the cloud infrastructure market with the growing data volumes. Not to mention, the company has highlighted its commitment towards AWS with new client relationships such as major sports leagues around the world including National Hockey League, the PGA Tour, Formula 1 and the German Bundesliga. Furthermore, it also recently&nbsp;announced&nbsp;a relationship with Dish Network to build out cloud-based 5G infrastructure and would expand its data center footprint in Israel and the United Arab Emirates. It currently offers 80 availability zones across 25 geographic regions and plans to launch 15 more availability zones to support its cloud growth.</p><p><blockquote>因此，尽管随着微软等竞争对手的增长速度超过AWS的市场份额趋于稳定，但我们仍然相信随着数据量的增长，云基础设施市场存在巨大机遇。更不用说，该公司还通过新的客户关系强调了其对AWS的承诺，如世界各地的主要体育联盟，包括国家曲棍球联盟、PGA巡回赛、一级方程式赛车和德国德甲联赛。此外，它最近还宣布与Dish Network建立合作关系，建立基于云的5G基础设施，并将扩大其在以色列和阿拉伯联合酋长国的数据中心足迹。它目前在25个地理区域提供80个可用性区域，并计划再推出15个可用性区域，以支持其云的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ebc384fe7bf254090200574fd352254\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Canalys, Khaveen Investments</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：Canalys、Khaveen Investments</span></p></blockquote></p><p> All in all, we projected AWS's revenue growth based on our market share forecast assumptions that its market share leadership is slowly chipped away by fast-growing competitors notably Microsoft but still maintaining its market leadership backed by solid large client relationship leveraging AWS. Based on a forecasted market share of 30.7% by 2023, we expect AWS revenues to grow to $81.5 bln.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，我们预测 AWS 的收入增长是基于我们的市场份额预测假设，即其市场份额领先地位正在被快速增长的竞争对手（尤其是微软）慢慢蚕食，但在利用 AWS 的稳固大客户关系的支持下，仍保持其市场领先地位。基于到 2023 年 30.7% 的市场份额预测，我们预计 AWS 收入将增长至 815 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>AWS Forecasts</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>AWS预测</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2018</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2018</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2019</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2019</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2020</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2020</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2021F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2021F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2022F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2022F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2023F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2023F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>AWS Market Share</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>AWS 市场份额</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>32.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>32.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>32.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>32.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>31.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>31.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>31.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>31.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>31.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>30.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>30.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>AWS Revenues ($ bln)</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>AWS 收入（十亿美元）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.66</p><p><blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>35.03</p><p><blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>45.37</p><p><blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>54.58</p><p><blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>66.81</p><p><blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>81.52</p><p><blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>47.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>36.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>29.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>20.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22.4%</p><p><blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> <i>Source: Amazon, Canalys, Khaveen Investments</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源：亚马逊、Canalys、Khaveen Investments</i></blockquote></p><p> While AWS only makes up 11% of its total revenues, its superior margins of 29% compared to only 2.8% for the other company segments has AWS accounting for 59% of operating income in 2020 which highlights the significance of AWS to its bottom line.</p><p><blockquote>虽然 AWS 仅占其总收入的 11%，但其 29% 的利润率（而其他公司部门仅为 2.8%）使 AWS 在 2020 年占据了 59% 的经营利润，这凸显了 AWS 对其利润的重要性。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17ae44c90f44af56478935039edb4cc7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Amazon</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：亚马逊</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Antimonopoly and Data Privacy Fine Risk</b></p><p><blockquote><b>反垄断与数据隐私罚款风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Amazon has been&nbsp;involved&nbsp;in allegations of the company's approach to unfairly attain data and information from third-party sellers, stated by the Democrats' report with the company's e-commerce market share around 40% in the US. With the reliance of sellers on Amazon's sales channel, Amazon can charge sellers exceptional fees and further penalizing sellers for lowering their prices on other sites. Also, a bipartisan group of House lawmakers is pushing big tech including Amazon for anoverhaulof their business practices under an expansive set of antitrust reforms that would make it harder for dominant platforms to complete mergers and prohibit them from owning businesses that present clear conflicts of interest.</p><p><blockquote>民主党报告称，亚马逊一直被指控不公平地从第三方卖家获取数据和信息，该公司在美国的电子商务市场份额约为 40%。随着卖家对亚马逊销售渠道的依赖，亚马逊可以向卖家收取特殊费用，并进一步惩罚卖家在其他网站上降低价格的行为。此外，一个由两党众议院议员组成的小组正在推动包括亚马逊在内的大型科技公司根据一系列广泛的反垄断改革对其商业行为进行彻底改革，这将使占主导地位的平台更难完成合并，并禁止它们拥有存在明显利益冲突的业务。</blockquote></p><p> Whereas in the&nbsp;European Union, Amazon has been hit with the largest GDPR fine to date. The EU is moving beyond data breaches and zeroing in on data practices. Amazon faced a $888 million fine from violating the bloc's data protection rules. Amazon has been accused to violate the EU's General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). GDPR allows forfinesof up to 4% of Amazon's revenue, which the released number indicated around 4.2% of Amazon's $21.3 billion income in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>而在欧盟，亚马逊受到了迄今为止最大的GDPR罚款。欧盟正在超越数据泄露，专注于数据实践。亚马逊因违反欧盟数据保护规则而面临 8.88 亿美元的罚款。亚马逊被指控违反欧盟通用数据保护条例（GDPR）。GDPR 允许对亚马逊收入处以高达 4% 的罚款，公布的数字显示，这约占亚马逊 2020 年 213 亿美元收入的 4.2%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> The company has had average revenue growth of 29.4% in the past 5 years with an average gross and net margin of 38.6% and 3.5% respectively. The strength of the company is its rising margins as its net margins have risen due to the superior growth of its cloud segment which commands higher margins. The AWS segment has a high operating margin of 29.6% versus 2.8% for the remaining business segments.</p><p><blockquote>该公司过去5年的平均收入增长率为29.4%，平均毛利率和净利润率分别为38.6%和3.5%。该公司的优势在于其不断上升的利润率，因为其云业务的出色增长导致其净利润率上升，而云业务的利润率更高。AWS 部门的营业利润率高达 29.6%，而其余业务部门的营业利润率为 2.8%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a075f1644a849d94c77b8707596cf501\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：亚马逊、Khaveen Investments</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> More importantly, the company has decent and imposing cash-generating abilities with an average FCF margin of 3.01% in the past 5 years. In 2017, its FCF margin dipped due to the&nbsp;acquisition&nbsp;of Whole Foods for $13.7 bln. The strength of its cash flows is the rising margins as its AWS business which is more profitable exhibits a higher growth than other segments.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，该公司拥有不错且令人信服的现金产生能力，过去 5 年平均自由现金流利润率为 3.01%。2017年，由于以137亿美元收购全食超市，其自由现金流利润率下降。其现金流的优势在于不断上升的利润率，因为其利润更高的 AWS 业务比其他部门表现出更高的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78710672b48942ad15fa6ecdd9fffaf9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：亚马逊、Khaveen Investments</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The company's balance sheet strength is its strong ability to meet its debt obligations. It has a net debt of $113 bln in 2020 with an EBITDA/interest coverage ratio of 44x in 2020. Its ratio has steadily increased in the past 5 years from 32x as it grew its profitability with the superior growth of AWS.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的资产负债表实力在于其履行债务义务的强大能力。该公司2020年的净债务为1130亿美元，2020年EBITDA/利息覆盖率为44倍。随着 AWS 的卓越增长，其盈利能力不断提高，其比率在过去 5 年中从 32 倍稳步增长。</blockquote></p><p> To value Amazon, we used a DCF valuation as the company has had positive free cash flows in the past. We got an industry average EV/EBITDA of 27.64x based on comparable companies as shown in the table below.</p><p><blockquote>为了对亚马逊进行估值，我们使用了 DCF 估值，因为该公司过去有正的自由现金流。基于可比公司，我们得到了27.64倍的行业平均EV/EBITDA，如下表所示。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>Company</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>公司</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>EV/EBITDA</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>EV/EBITDA</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Amazon</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>28.57x</p><p><blockquote><td>28.57倍</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Alibaba (BABA)</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>阿里巴巴-SW（巴巴）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>21.14x</p><p><blockquote><td>21.14倍</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Microsoft</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>微软</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.89x</p><p><blockquote><td>25.89倍</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Google</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>谷歌</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22.46x</p><p><blockquote><td>22.46倍</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Average</b></p><p><blockquote><tr><td><b>均值</b></td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>24.52x</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>24.52倍</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> <i>Source: SeekingAlpha</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：SeekingAlpha</i></blockquote></p><p> The revenue growth projections aresummarized below based on the revenue breakdown by its online stores, physical stores, retail third party seller services, subscription services, AWS and others. The online store projections are derived from its market share assumption on the forecasted growth of the e-commerce market while physical store sales are based on the retail sales growth rate forecast of 7.2% in 2021. Retail third-party seller services are derived from its share of third-party seller GMV of the total e-commerce market and an assumption of a % cut it earns as revenues from commissions and related fees. The AWS revenues are projected from the cloud market growth based on the rising data volumes forecasts. Other segments are based on its average 3-year growth rates. Beyond 2023, we tapered down our growth forecasts with a weighted CAGR of 14.2% of the e-commerce and cloud computing market through 2027 and tapering down from 12.3% in 2027 with an annual decrease of 2% per year until 2030 as we expect the e-commerce market to become more mature.</p><p><blockquote>收入增长预测根据其在线商店、实体店、零售第三方卖家服务、订阅服务、AWS 等的收入明细总结如下。网上商店的预测来自其对电子商务市场预测增长的市场份额假设，而实体店销售则基于2021年7.2%的零售销售增长率预测。零售第三方卖家服务来自其在整个电子商务市场的第三方卖家GMV中的份额，以及其从佣金和相关费用中获得的1%的收入的假设。根据不断增长的数据量预测，AWS 收入来自云市场的增长。其他分部基于其三年平均增长率。2023年之后，我们下调了增长预测，到2027年，电子商务和云计算市场的加权复合年增长率为14.2%，从2027年的12.3%下调，直到2030年每年下降2%，因为我们预计电子商务市场将变得更加成熟。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>Amazon Revenue Projections ($ bln)</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>亚马逊收入预测（十亿美元）</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2018</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2018</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2019</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2019</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2020</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2020</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2021F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2021F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2022F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2022F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2023F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2023F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Online stores</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>网上商店</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>122.99</p><p><blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>141.25</p><p><blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>197.35</p><p><blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>211.74</p><p><blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>244.02</p><p><blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>280.50</p><p><blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>13.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>14.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>39.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>7.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Physical stores</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>实体店</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>17.22</p><p><blockquote><td>17.22</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>17.19</p><p><blockquote><td>17.19</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>16.23</p><p><blockquote><td>16.23</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>17.40</p><p><blockquote><td>17.40</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>18.55</p><p><blockquote><td>18.55</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19.38</p><p><blockquote><td>19.38</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>196.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>196.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>-0.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>-0.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>-5.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>-5.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>7.20%</p><p><blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6.60%</p><p><blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.50%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Retail third-party seller services</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>42.75</p><p><blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>53.76</p><p><blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>80.46</p><p><blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>97.37</p><p><blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>123.25</p><p><blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>155.61</p><p><blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>34.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>49.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>21.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>26.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>26.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Subscription services</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>订阅服务</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>14.17</p><p><blockquote><td>14.17</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19.21</p><p><blockquote><td>19.21</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.21</p><p><blockquote><td>25.21</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>34.67</p><p><blockquote><td>34.67</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>47.68</p><p><blockquote><td>47.68</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>65.58</p><p><blockquote><td>65.58</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>45.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>35.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>35.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>31.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>37.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>37.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>37.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>AWS</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>AWS</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.66</p><p><blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>35.03</p><p><blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>45.37</p><p><blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>54.58</p><p><blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>66.81</p><p><blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>81.52</p><p><blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>47.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>36.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>29.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>20.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22.4%</p><p><blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Other</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>其他的</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>10.11</p><p><blockquote><td>10.11</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>14.09</p><p><blockquote><td>14.09</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>21.45</p><p><blockquote><td>21.45</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>31.27</p><p><blockquote><td>31.27</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>45.60</p><p><blockquote><td>45.60</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>66.48</p><p><blockquote><td>66.48</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>117.4%</p><p><blockquote><td>117.4%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>39.4%</p><p><blockquote><td>39.4%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>52.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>52.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>45.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></p><p></td>    <td>45.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>45.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Total</b></p><p><blockquote><tr><td><b>总的</b></td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>232.9</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>232.9</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>280.53</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>280.53</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>386.07</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>386.07</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>447.0</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>447.0</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>545.9</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>545.9</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>669.1</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>669.1</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Total Growth %</b></p><p><blockquote><tr><td><b>总增长%</b></td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>30.9%</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>30.9%</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>20.5%</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>20.5%</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>37.6%</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>37.6%</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>15.8%</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>15.8%</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>22.1%</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>22.1%</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>22.6%</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>22.6%</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> <i>Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源：亚马逊、Khaveen Investments</i></blockquote></p><p> Based on a discount rate of 12.7% (company's WACC), our model shows an upside of 36.9%.</p><p><blockquote>基于 12.7% 的贴现率（公司的 WACC），我们的模型显示上涨空间为 36.9%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74c5d7c65d544d533d2e87bb62270fb1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Khaveen Investments</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：卡文投资</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Verdict</b></p><p><blockquote><b>裁决</b></blockquote></p><p> In conclusion, weanalyzed the company's key growth drivers namely the online retail, third-party seller services and AWS. While the accelerated growth eventually winds down, its growth outlook remains highly attractive as an established and dominant market leader in e-commerce. The share of e-commerce sales as a % of total retail sales is forecasted to keep marching higher with the shift of consumers buyingbehavior towards e-commerce with a forecasted rate of 22% by 2023. The company's Prime member provides it with a loyal customer base roughly half of the US population. Moreover, another key strength is its vast logistics and shipping network and Amazon FBA seeing the continued rise of third-party sellers on its online marketplace. Finally, AWS remains the clear market leader in the foreseeable future with close relationships with large corporate clients and continuous commitment by management to cater to the growing infrastructure needs of the segment. Thus, despite the expected normalizing growth in 2021, we believe that its outlook continued to be buoyed by the rising e-commerce and cloud computing market and revised our growth rate projections to 15.8% in 2021 followed by 22% in 2020. Overall, we rate the stock as a<i>Buy</i>with a price target of<i>$4,363.96.</i></p><p><blockquote>总之，我们分析了公司的主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方卖家服务和 AWS。虽然加速增长最终会结束，但作为电子商务领域的老牌市场领导者，其增长前景仍然极具吸引力。随着消费者购买行为向电子商务的转变，预计到 2023 年，电子商务销售额占零售总额的百分比将继续上升，预计这一比例将达到 22%。该公司的主要会员为其提供了大约一半美国人口的忠实客户群。此外，另一个关键优势是其庞大的物流和航运网络，亚马逊FBA看到其在线市场上第三方卖家的持续增长。最后，在可预见的未来，AWS 仍然是明显的市场领导者，与大型企业客户保持着密切的关系，并且管理层不断致力于满足该领域不断增长的基础设施需求。因此，尽管预期2021年增长将恢复正常，但我们相信其前景将继续受到不断增长的电子商务和云计算市场的提振，并将2021年的增长率预测修订为15.8%，2020年为22%。总体而言，我们将该股评级为<i>购买</i>目标价为<i>$4,363.96.</i></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453926-amazon-stock-still-attractive\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453926-amazon-stock-still-attractive","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143120804","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth rate forecast to 15.8%.\nWhile growth is moderating following a stellar year with robust activity, the company remains poised to benefit from the e-commerce shift with a forecast penetration rate of 22% of retail.\nAWS is expected to remain as the number 1 market leader for the foreseeable future.\nWe revised our valuation using DCF analysis to obtain a new price target of $4,303,18 from $3,358.73.\n\n4kodiak/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nSince our previous coverage, Amazon Inc.'s (AMZN) stock has risen by 26% and exceeded our revenue growth expectations of 24.5% and finished 2020 up by 37.6% on exceptional growth of its online retail business growing by 40% to nearly $200 bln and third-party services at $80bln. In this analysis, we re-examine its key growth drivers namely online retail, third party services and AWS.\nDespite the softness in Q2 of its online store sales growth of 13% and soft Q3 guidance of 13% YoY at the midpoint, indicating a sign of normalizing growth, the secular growth outlook of the e-commerce market remains attractive from the continued shift towards online retail which Amazon has an established market position. As more consumers shift their purchasing behavior online, the share of e-commerce is forecasted to reach 22% by 2023 from 18% in 2020. We believe that Amazon's well-established market position with a massive Prime membership base as loyal customers and solid logistics and shipping network providing it with an advantage as seen with the rise of its e-commerce marketplace with third-party sellers. Moreover, its cloud business is expected to remain the market leader of the cloud infrastructure market for the foreseeable future with continued commitment towards growth and underpinned by rising data volumes.\nSource: Amazon\nE-commerce Sales Outlook Still Attractive Despite Normalizing Growth\nAmazon's online store sales have surged 40% in 2020 from 14.8% in the prior year as it benefitted from the prolonged lockdowns and restrictions on physical retailers which saw the accelerated shift towards e-commerce adoption. However, despite the slowdown in its online store growth in Q2 2021 of 13% YoY compared to 41% in Q1, we believe that the company is poised to continue reaping the secular tailwinds of the rising e-commerce adoption.\nAccording to eMarketer, the share of e-commerce sales is forecasted to reach 22% of global retail sales as consumers continue to shift towards online buying. Global retail sales are forecasted to bound back by 7.2% with the vaccination drives across the world and easing business restrictions. Thus, the e-commerce sales forecast is 10.2% in 2021 which represents a normalized growth from 27.6% in 2019 as the penetration rate surged to 18% from 14% in the past year.\n\n\n\nGlobal E-Commerce Market ($ bln)\n2016\n2017\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nTotal Global Retail Sales ('a')\n21,453\n22,904\n23,560\n24,780\n23,778\n25,490\n27,172\n28,395\n\n\nGrowth %\n2.6%\n6.8%\n2.9%\n5.2%\n-4.0%\n7.20%\n6.60%\n4.50%\n\n\nRetail E-commerce Sales ('b')\n1,845\n2,382\n2,982\n3,354\n4,280\n4,716\n5,434\n6,247\n\n\nGrowth %\n19.2%\n29.1%\n25.2%\n12.5%\n27.6%\n10.2%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nPenetration Rate ('c')\n9%\n10%\n12%\n14%\n18%\n19%\n20%\n22%\n\n\n\n* B = C x A\nSource: Statista, eMarketer, Khaveen Investments\nAmazon's established market positioning is an added competitive strength of it to capitalize on the market growth. More specifically, it is hard to win over the company in the key criteria of price, choice and convenience. Evidently, the company's Prime membership continued to grow in 2020 by 15% to 142.5 mln members or roughly 43% of the US population. This indicates the strong attraction of loyal customers to the company providing it with a massive install base. Through Prime membership, consumers are also pushed to buy more to obtain various benefits.\nSource: Backlinko\nIn addition to Prime members, the company has been able to consistently attract sellers to its platform with 3.3 mln new sellers since 2017 or 3,718 per day. Currently, it has 9.7 mlnsellersworldwide across the US, UK, Germany, Japan, etc. Thus, the company has established itself as the dominant market leader and is far ahead of its next closest competitor in terms of e-commerce sales.\nSource: Marketing Charts\nIts market leadership is quite extensive across different product categories and markets as illustrated in the table below. For example, it accounts for Its consumer & consumer electronics sales is the largest product category accounting for 50.2% of the products' total e-commerce sales in the US and 26.7% of total retail sales. This is followed by apparel & accessories, books music & video and furniture and home furnishings which is 32%, 83.2% and 34.2 % of e-commerce sales.\nSource: eMarketer\nAmong the product categories, the electronics category is the most popular among shoppers in the US with 44% of US shoppers having purchased electronics on Amazon. It also sells its own electronicdevicesincluding Echo smart speakers which account for 70% of the US market share followed by Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) and continues to develop the product with newer generations and software updates. In 2020, the company shipped over 38 mln smart speaker units and accounted for 28.3% of the global market share of shipments. We estimated its revenues from the sale of its smart speakers based on the average price of the Echo product family of $103 to be around $3.94 bln in revenues which is around 2% of its online store revenues. However, it also faces increasing competition especially from the Chinese manufacturers such as Baidu (BIDU) and Xiaomi (OTCPK:XIACF) which dominate the China market.\nAll in all, the company has a massive product breadth of 12 mln products excluding books, media, wine and services and with the growing seller base, we expect this product breadth to continue to be expanded and provide customers unique value proposition with product variety.\nThus, we expect its solid market dominance with an ecosystem of an established customer base and loyal Prime members and a large seller base with extensive market leadership across various key product categories with a broad product breadth to support its long-term growth. We projected its online store growth based on our expectation of its market share at 4.5% based on a 5-year average on the global e-commerce sales.\n\n\n\nAmazon Online Stores ($ bln)\n2016\n2017\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nTotal Retail Sales ('a')\n21,453\n22,904\n23,560\n24,780\n23,778\n25,490\n27,172\n28,395\n\n\nGrowth %\n2.6%\n6.8%\n2.9%\n5.2%\n-4.0%\n7.20%\n6.60%\n4.50%\n\n\nRetail E-commerce Sales ('b')\n1,845\n2,382\n2,982\n3,354\n4,280\n4,716\n5,434\n6,247\n\n\nGrowth %\n19.2%\n29.1%\n25.2%\n12.5%\n27.6%\n10.2%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nPenetration Rate ('c')\n9%\n10%\n12%\n14%\n18%\n19%\n20%\n22%\n\n\nGrowth %\n16.2%\n20.9%\n17.3%\n11.5%\n32.4%\n2.8%\n8.1%\n10.0%\n\n\nAmazon Online Stores Revenues ('d')\n91.43\n108.35\n122.99\n141.25\n197.35\n211.74\n244.02\n280.50\n\n\nGrowth %\n18.5%\n13.5%\n14.8%\n39.7%\n7.3%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nAmazon Online Stores Market Share ('e')\n5.0%\n4.5%\n4.1%\n4.2%\n4.6%\n4.5%\n4.5%\n4.5%\n\n\n\n* B = A x C\n*D = B x E\nSource: Statista, Khaveen Investments\nThe Rise of Third-party Seller Services\nAnother major advantage of the company is its logistics and shipping operations, which has become an impenetrable moat that few other companies will ever have the resources or ability to match, with Amazon partnering with most major delivery providers in the country. By leveraging its robust network, it offers programs to enable sellers to sell their products through its marketplace and fulfill orders through the company.\nWith Fulfillment by Amazon ('FBA'), third party sellersstore products in Amazon's fulfillment centers, and it picks, packs, ships, and provide customer service for these products. Amazon is not the seller but earns commissions and related fulfillment and shipping fees including inventory management, payment processing, shipment tracking and reporting from the arrangements from its third-party sellers who are largely comprised of small- and medium-sized businesses.\nSelling on Amazon as a third-party seller is an increasingly popular option for sellers. It ultimately provides more flexibility and control, a stronger brand presence, and better data access. Over the past years, the rise of third-party sellers on Amazon is seen with the rising share of third-party sales as a % of its gross merchandise sales at 62% of total sales.\nSource: FourWeekMBA\nThe chart below further illustrates Amazon's large network of logistics and shipping. Its fulfillment center network is one of several ways it enhances its logistics and shipping process taking on FedEx and UPS and has been ramping up efforts to launch its delivery network as well with growing fleets of airplanes, drones and vans. Amazon's own logistics business delivered 1.9 bln packages in the US.\nSource: WebFX\nMoreover, its wide logistics and shipping coverage with over 100 active warehouses across the US with the highest number of facilities in California, Texas and New Jersey. Additionally, it is expanding heavily in the south with the highest number of planned warehouses. For example, the upcoming opening of a 1 million-square-foot fulfillmentcenter in Missouri in 2021 where employees will pack and ship larger-sized customer items like patio furniture, outdoor equipment or rugs. In 2020, it announced plans for 7 new fulfillmentcenters including a 600,000-square-foot facility in Florida, an 855,000-square foot facility in Tennessee and a 625,000square-foot fulfillment center in Texas.\nSource: CNBC\nOverall, these are among the factors which lead to the company's strength from its wide logistics network in terms of shipping speed. The company is highly popular for its speedy shipping and even has free Two-Day and even Same Day Shipping Programs for Prime members. Based on the survey below, the majority or 80% cited fast and free shipping as the major reason for choosing Amazon. We believe that the company's planned expansion would continue to enhance its logistics network and maintain its popularity among customers.\nSource: Statista\nWe forecasted the company's retail third-party seller services revenues which consist of fulfillment service-related revenues derived from the sales from third-party sellers. Amazon's third-party gross merchandise sales are forecasted to increase its share of total retail e-commerce sales as a growth rate of 9% based on the past 5-year average with the rising popularity of third-party sales on its marketplace. Moreover, we also forecasted the share of revenues that Amazon earns to grow by 1% from 27.3% based on the 2-year average as Amazon continues to expand its fulfillment capabilities to cater to its third-party sellers. This trend is also believed to be significant for margin expansion of the company as gross margins third-party seller services isestimatedto be between 60% to 75% of sales which is lower than AWS at 80% but still higher than the company's overall gross margin of 37% due to high costs tied up with the cost of sales which represents 60% of its total sales.\n\n\n\nThird-Party Seller Services Revenues ($ bln)\n2016\n2017\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nGlobal Retail E-commerce Sales ('a')\n1,845\n2,382\n2,982\n3,354\n4,280\n4,716\n5,434\n6,247\n\n\nGrowth %\n19.2%\n29.1%\n25.2%\n12.5%\n27.6%\n10.2%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nAmazon Third Party Market Share ('b')\n5.6%\n5.5%\n5.4%\n6.0%\n6.9%\n7.5%\n8.1%\n8.9%\n\n\nGrowth %\n21%\n-2%\n-2%\n11%\n16%\n9%\n9%\n9%\n\n\nThird-party (Amazon marketplace) GMV ('c')\n103\n130\n160\n200\n295\n353\n443\n553\n\n\nGrowth %\n26.2%\n23.1%\n25.0%\n47.5%\n19.8%\n25.3%\n25.0%\n\n\n% Of Revenues ('d')\n22.3%\n24.5%\n26.7%\n26.9%\n27.3%\n27.6%\n27.8%\n28.1%\n\n\nGrowth %\n9.9%\n9.0%\n0.6%\n1.5%\n1.0%\n1.0%\n1.0%\n\n\nRetail third-party seller services revenues ('e')\n22.99\n31.88\n42.75\n53.76\n80.46\n97.37\n123.25\n155.61\n\n\nGrowth %\n38.7%\n34.1%\n25.8%\n49.7%\n21.0%\n26.6%\n26.3%\n\n\n\n*C = A x B\n*E = C x D\nSource: Amazon, Statista, Khaveen Investments\nAWS Growth by Data Volume Growth\nAnother key area of growth of the company is cloud computing with notable largeclientssuch as Netflix (NFLX), Verizon (VZ), Capital One (COF), McDonald's (MCD). AWS revenues grew strongly at 29.5% in 2020 with a market share of 31.8% of the cloud infrastructuremarket. Since its launch nearly 2 decades ago, it has grown to become the market leader for years and looks set to maintain the status quo for the foreseeable future despite rising competition especially from Microsoft (MSFT) and Google gaining market share outpacing Amazon's growth.\nThe rapid growth of the cloud infrastructure market is underpinned by the rising volume of global data volume creation at aCAGRof 23% until 2025 as data volume is projected to grow to more than 180 zettabytes as the world becomes more data-driven with the rise of data analytics, 5G and IoT spurring the growth of data creation.\nSource: Statista, Khaveen Investments\nWe projected the growth of the cloud infrastructure market based on the forecasted growth of data volume at a 23% CAGR through 2025 at an average cloud infrastructure/data growth factor of 1.72.\n* A = B x C Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments\nThus, despite the plateauing market share of AWS as competitors like Microsoft outpaces its growth, we still believe in the massive opportunity in the cloud infrastructure market with the growing data volumes. Not to mention, the company has highlighted its commitment towards AWS with new client relationships such as major sports leagues around the world including National Hockey League, the PGA Tour, Formula 1 and the German Bundesliga. Furthermore, it also recently announced a relationship with Dish Network to build out cloud-based 5G infrastructure and would expand its data center footprint in Israel and the United Arab Emirates. It currently offers 80 availability zones across 25 geographic regions and plans to launch 15 more availability zones to support its cloud growth.\nSource: Canalys, Khaveen Investments\nAll in all, we projected AWS's revenue growth based on our market share forecast assumptions that its market share leadership is slowly chipped away by fast-growing competitors notably Microsoft but still maintaining its market leadership backed by solid large client relationship leveraging AWS. Based on a forecasted market share of 30.7% by 2023, we expect AWS revenues to grow to $81.5 bln.\n\n\n\nAWS Forecasts\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nAWS Market Share\n32.6%\n32.3%\n31.8%\n31.2%\n31.0%\n30.7%\n\n\nAWS Revenues ($ bln)\n25.66\n35.03\n45.37\n54.58\n66.81\n81.52\n\n\nGrowth %\n47.0%\n36.5%\n29.5%\n20.3%\n22.4%\n22.0%\n\n\n\nSource: Amazon, Canalys, Khaveen Investments\nWhile AWS only makes up 11% of its total revenues, its superior margins of 29% compared to only 2.8% for the other company segments has AWS accounting for 59% of operating income in 2020 which highlights the significance of AWS to its bottom line.\nSource: Amazon\nAntimonopoly and Data Privacy Fine Risk\nAmazon has been involved in allegations of the company's approach to unfairly attain data and information from third-party sellers, stated by the Democrats' report with the company's e-commerce market share around 40% in the US. With the reliance of sellers on Amazon's sales channel, Amazon can charge sellers exceptional fees and further penalizing sellers for lowering their prices on other sites. Also, a bipartisan group of House lawmakers is pushing big tech including Amazon for anoverhaulof their business practices under an expansive set of antitrust reforms that would make it harder for dominant platforms to complete mergers and prohibit them from owning businesses that present clear conflicts of interest.\nWhereas in the European Union, Amazon has been hit with the largest GDPR fine to date. The EU is moving beyond data breaches and zeroing in on data practices. Amazon faced a $888 million fine from violating the bloc's data protection rules. Amazon has been accused to violate the EU's General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). GDPR allows forfinesof up to 4% of Amazon's revenue, which the released number indicated around 4.2% of Amazon's $21.3 billion income in 2020.\nValuation\nThe company has had average revenue growth of 29.4% in the past 5 years with an average gross and net margin of 38.6% and 3.5% respectively. The strength of the company is its rising margins as its net margins have risen due to the superior growth of its cloud segment which commands higher margins. The AWS segment has a high operating margin of 29.6% versus 2.8% for the remaining business segments.\nSource: Amazon, Khaveen Investments\nMore importantly, the company has decent and imposing cash-generating abilities with an average FCF margin of 3.01% in the past 5 years. In 2017, its FCF margin dipped due to the acquisition of Whole Foods for $13.7 bln. The strength of its cash flows is the rising margins as its AWS business which is more profitable exhibits a higher growth than other segments.\nSource: Amazon, Khaveen Investments\nThe company's balance sheet strength is its strong ability to meet its debt obligations. It has a net debt of $113 bln in 2020 with an EBITDA/interest coverage ratio of 44x in 2020. Its ratio has steadily increased in the past 5 years from 32x as it grew its profitability with the superior growth of AWS.\nTo value Amazon, we used a DCF valuation as the company has had positive free cash flows in the past. We got an industry average EV/EBITDA of 27.64x based on comparable companies as shown in the table below.\n\n\n\nCompany\nEV/EBITDA\n\n\nAmazon\n28.57x\n\n\nAlibaba (BABA)\n21.14x\n\n\nMicrosoft\n25.89x\n\n\nGoogle\n22.46x\n\n\nAverage\n24.52x\n\n\n\nSource: SeekingAlpha\nThe revenue growth projections aresummarized below based on the revenue breakdown by its online stores, physical stores, retail third party seller services, subscription services, AWS and others. The online store projections are derived from its market share assumption on the forecasted growth of the e-commerce market while physical store sales are based on the retail sales growth rate forecast of 7.2% in 2021. Retail third-party seller services are derived from its share of third-party seller GMV of the total e-commerce market and an assumption of a % cut it earns as revenues from commissions and related fees. The AWS revenues are projected from the cloud market growth based on the rising data volumes forecasts. Other segments are based on its average 3-year growth rates. Beyond 2023, we tapered down our growth forecasts with a weighted CAGR of 14.2% of the e-commerce and cloud computing market through 2027 and tapering down from 12.3% in 2027 with an annual decrease of 2% per year until 2030 as we expect the e-commerce market to become more mature.\n\n\n\nAmazon Revenue Projections ($ bln)\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nOnline stores\n122.99\n141.25\n197.35\n211.74\n244.02\n280.50\n\n\nGrowth %\n13.5%\n14.8%\n39.7%\n7.3%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nPhysical stores\n17.22\n17.19\n16.23\n17.40\n18.55\n19.38\n\n\nGrowth %\n196.9%\n-0.2%\n-5.6%\n7.20%\n6.60%\n4.50%\n\n\nRetail third-party seller services\n42.75\n53.76\n80.46\n97.37\n123.25\n155.61\n\n\nGrowth %\n34.1%\n25.8%\n49.7%\n21.0%\n26.6%\n26.3%\n\n\nSubscription services\n14.17\n19.21\n25.21\n34.67\n47.68\n65.58\n\n\nGrowth %\n45.8%\n35.6%\n31.2%\n37.5%\n37.5%\n37.5%\n\n\nAWS\n25.66\n35.03\n45.37\n54.58\n66.81\n81.52\n\n\nGrowth %\n47.0%\n36.5%\n29.5%\n20.3%\n22.4%\n22.0%\n\n\nOther\n10.11\n14.09\n21.45\n31.27\n45.60\n66.48\n\n\nGrowth %\n117.4%\n39.4%\n52.2%\n45.8%\n45.8%\n45.8%\n\n\nTotal\n232.9\n280.53\n386.07\n447.0\n545.9\n669.1\n\n\nTotal Growth %\n30.9%\n20.5%\n37.6%\n15.8%\n22.1%\n22.6%\n\n\n\nSource: Amazon, Khaveen Investments\nBased on a discount rate of 12.7% (company's WACC), our model shows an upside of 36.9%.\nSource: Khaveen Investments\nVerdict\nIn conclusion, weanalyzed the company's key growth drivers namely the online retail, third-party seller services and AWS. While the accelerated growth eventually winds down, its growth outlook remains highly attractive as an established and dominant market leader in e-commerce. The share of e-commerce sales as a % of total retail sales is forecasted to keep marching higher with the shift of consumers buyingbehavior towards e-commerce with a forecasted rate of 22% by 2023. The company's Prime member provides it with a loyal customer base roughly half of the US population. Moreover, another key strength is its vast logistics and shipping network and Amazon FBA seeing the continued rise of third-party sellers on its online marketplace. Finally, AWS remains the clear market leader in the foreseeable future with close relationships with large corporate clients and continuous commitment by management to cater to the growing infrastructure needs of the segment. Thus, despite the expected normalizing growth in 2021, we believe that its outlook continued to be buoyed by the rising e-commerce and cloud computing market and revised our growth rate projections to 15.8% in 2021 followed by 22% in 2020. Overall, we rate the stock as aBuywith a price target of$4,363.96.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3245,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":809975986,"gmtCreate":1627346171945,"gmtModify":1631890915295,"author":{"id":"3584755094881851","authorId":"3584755094881851","name":"MewCat","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584755094881851","idStr":"3584755094881851"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Cryto no reaction, keep going up","listText":"Cryto no reaction, keep going up","text":"Cryto no reaction, keep going up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/809975986","repostId":"2154720964","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3046,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":148179032,"gmtCreate":1625963892726,"gmtModify":1631890915316,"author":{"id":"3584755094881851","authorId":"3584755094881851","name":"MewCat","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584755094881851","idStr":"3584755094881851"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"GG","listText":"GG","text":"GG","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/148179032","repostId":"1138077902","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138077902","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1625883154,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1138077902?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-10 10:12","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"China has prohibited the merger of HuYa and DouYu<blockquote>中国禁止虎牙和斗鱼合并</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138077902","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"The State Administration of market supervision of China has prohibited the merger of HuYa and DouYu.On January 4, 2021, the State Administration of market supervision of the people's Republic of China conducted an anti-monopoly examination on the concentration of business operators in accordance with the law in the merger case of tiger tooth company and Betta International Holding Co., Ltd. declared by Tencent Holding Co., Ltd.Tencent responded that the company will seriously abide by the review","content":"<p>The State Administration of market supervision of China has prohibited the merger of HuYa and DouYu.</p><p><blockquote>中国国家市场监督管理总局已经禁止虎牙和斗鱼合并。</blockquote></p><p> On January 4, 2021, the State Administration of market supervision of the people's Republic of China conducted an anti-monopoly examination on the concentration of business operators in accordance with the law in the merger case of tiger tooth company and Betta International Holding Co., Ltd. declared by Tencent Holding Co., Ltd.</p><p><blockquote>2021年1月4日，国家市场监督管理总局对腾讯控股控股有限公司申报的虎牙公司与斗鱼国际控股有限公司合并一案，依法进行了经营者集中反垄断审查。</blockquote></p><p> According to the anti monopoly law, the State Administration of market supervision comprehensively analyzes and evaluates the market share of the operators participating in the concentration in the relevant market and their control over the market, the degree of market concentration, the impact of concentration on market entry and technological progress, the impact of concentration on consumers and other relevant operators, as well as the effectiveness of the additional restrictive commitment scheme proposed by Tencent. During the review process, the State Administration of market supervision extensively solicited opinions from relevant government departments, industry associations, experts and scholars, competitors in the same industry and downstream customers, and listened to Tencent's opinions for many times.</p><p><blockquote>国家市场监督管理总局根据《反垄断法》，综合分析评价参与集中的经营者在相关市场的市场份额及其对市场的控制力、市场集中程度、集中对市场进入和技术进步的影响、集中对消费者和其他相关经营者的影响，以及腾讯控股提出的附加限制性承诺方案的有效性。在审查过程中，市场监管总局广泛征求了相关政府部门、行业协会、专家学者、同行业竞争对手和下游客户的意见，多次听取了腾讯方面的意见。</blockquote></p><p> The review shows that the relevant market of this case is the online game operation service market and the live game market in China. Tencent's market share in the upstream online game operation service exceeds 40%, ranking first; Tiger teeth and fighting fish have more than 40% and 30% of the downstream live game market shares respectively, ranking first and second, with a total of more than 70%. At present, Tencent has separate control over tiger tooth and joint control over Betta. For example, the merger of tiger tooth and Betta will make Tencent control the merged entity separately, further strengthen Tencent's dominant position in the live game market, and enable Tencent to have the ability and motivation to implement closed-loop management and two-way vertical blockade in the upstream and downstream markets, which has or may have the effect of excluding and limiting competition, which is not conducive to fair competition in the market and may damage the interests of consumers, It is not conducive to the healthy and sustainable development of online games and live game market. After evaluation, Tencent's proposal of additional restrictive conditions commitment can not effectively solve the above competition concerns.</p><p><blockquote>审查显示，本案涉案市场为我国网络游戏运营服务市场和直播游戏市场。腾讯在上游网络游戏运营服务市场份额超过40%，排名第一；虎牙和斗鱼分别占据了下游直播游戏市场份额的40%和30%以上，分列第一和第二位，合计超过70%。目前，腾讯控股对虎牙实行单独管控，对斗鱼实行联合管控。如虎牙与斗鱼合并将使腾讯控股单独控制合并后的实体，进一步强化腾讯在直播游戏市场的主导地位，使腾讯控股有能力和动力在上下游市场实施闭环管理和双向垂直封锁，具有或可能具有排除和限制竞争的效果，不利于市场的公平竞争，可能损害消费者的利益，不利于网络游戏和直播游戏市场的健康可持续发展。经评估，腾讯提出的附加限制性条件承诺不能有效解决上述竞争担忧。</blockquote></p><p> According to Article 28 of the anti monopoly law and Article 35 of the Interim Provisions on the examination of business concentration, the State Administration of market supervision has decided to prohibit such business concentration according to law.</p><p><blockquote>根据《反垄断法》第二十八条和《经营者集中审查暂行规定》第三十五条的规定，市场监管总局决定依法禁止此类经营者集中。</blockquote></p><p> Tencent responded that the company will seriously abide by the review decision, actively cooperate with regulatory requirements, operate in accordance with the law and fulfill its social responsibilities.</p><p><blockquote>腾讯控股回应称，公司将认真遵守审查决定，积极配合监管要求，依法经营，履行社会责任。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>China has prohibited the merger of HuYa and DouYu<blockquote>中国禁止虎牙和斗鱼合并</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChina has prohibited the merger of HuYa and DouYu<blockquote>中国禁止虎牙和斗鱼合并</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-10 10:12</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The State Administration of market supervision of China has prohibited the merger of HuYa and DouYu.</p><p><blockquote>中国国家市场监督管理总局已经禁止虎牙和斗鱼合并。</blockquote></p><p> On January 4, 2021, the State Administration of market supervision of the people's Republic of China conducted an anti-monopoly examination on the concentration of business operators in accordance with the law in the merger case of tiger tooth company and Betta International Holding Co., Ltd. declared by Tencent Holding Co., Ltd.</p><p><blockquote>2021年1月4日，国家市场监督管理总局对腾讯控股控股有限公司申报的虎牙公司与斗鱼国际控股有限公司合并一案，依法进行了经营者集中反垄断审查。</blockquote></p><p> According to the anti monopoly law, the State Administration of market supervision comprehensively analyzes and evaluates the market share of the operators participating in the concentration in the relevant market and their control over the market, the degree of market concentration, the impact of concentration on market entry and technological progress, the impact of concentration on consumers and other relevant operators, as well as the effectiveness of the additional restrictive commitment scheme proposed by Tencent. During the review process, the State Administration of market supervision extensively solicited opinions from relevant government departments, industry associations, experts and scholars, competitors in the same industry and downstream customers, and listened to Tencent's opinions for many times.</p><p><blockquote>国家市场监督管理总局根据《反垄断法》，综合分析评价参与集中的经营者在相关市场的市场份额及其对市场的控制力、市场集中程度、集中对市场进入和技术进步的影响、集中对消费者和其他相关经营者的影响，以及腾讯控股提出的附加限制性承诺方案的有效性。在审查过程中，市场监管总局广泛征求了相关政府部门、行业协会、专家学者、同行业竞争对手和下游客户的意见，多次听取了腾讯方面的意见。</blockquote></p><p> The review shows that the relevant market of this case is the online game operation service market and the live game market in China. Tencent's market share in the upstream online game operation service exceeds 40%, ranking first; Tiger teeth and fighting fish have more than 40% and 30% of the downstream live game market shares respectively, ranking first and second, with a total of more than 70%. At present, Tencent has separate control over tiger tooth and joint control over Betta. For example, the merger of tiger tooth and Betta will make Tencent control the merged entity separately, further strengthen Tencent's dominant position in the live game market, and enable Tencent to have the ability and motivation to implement closed-loop management and two-way vertical blockade in the upstream and downstream markets, which has or may have the effect of excluding and limiting competition, which is not conducive to fair competition in the market and may damage the interests of consumers, It is not conducive to the healthy and sustainable development of online games and live game market. After evaluation, Tencent's proposal of additional restrictive conditions commitment can not effectively solve the above competition concerns.</p><p><blockquote>审查显示，本案涉案市场为我国网络游戏运营服务市场和直播游戏市场。腾讯在上游网络游戏运营服务市场份额超过40%，排名第一；虎牙和斗鱼分别占据了下游直播游戏市场份额的40%和30%以上，分列第一和第二位，合计超过70%。目前，腾讯控股对虎牙实行单独管控，对斗鱼实行联合管控。如虎牙与斗鱼合并将使腾讯控股单独控制合并后的实体，进一步强化腾讯在直播游戏市场的主导地位，使腾讯控股有能力和动力在上下游市场实施闭环管理和双向垂直封锁，具有或可能具有排除和限制竞争的效果，不利于市场的公平竞争，可能损害消费者的利益，不利于网络游戏和直播游戏市场的健康可持续发展。经评估，腾讯提出的附加限制性条件承诺不能有效解决上述竞争担忧。</blockquote></p><p> According to Article 28 of the anti monopoly law and Article 35 of the Interim Provisions on the examination of business concentration, the State Administration of market supervision has decided to prohibit such business concentration according to law.</p><p><blockquote>根据《反垄断法》第二十八条和《经营者集中审查暂行规定》第三十五条的规定，市场监管总局决定依法禁止此类经营者集中。</blockquote></p><p> Tencent responded that the company will seriously abide by the review decision, actively cooperate with regulatory requirements, operate in accordance with the law and fulfill its social responsibilities.</p><p><blockquote>腾讯控股回应称，公司将认真遵守审查决定，积极配合监管要求，依法经营，履行社会责任。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"00700":"腾讯控股","DOYU":"斗鱼","HUYA":"虎牙"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138077902","content_text":"The State Administration of market supervision of China has prohibited the merger of HuYa and DouYu.\nOn January 4, 2021, the State Administration of market supervision of the people's Republic of China conducted an anti-monopoly examination on the concentration of business operators in accordance with the law in the merger case of tiger tooth company and Betta International Holding Co., Ltd. declared by Tencent Holding Co., Ltd.\nAccording to the anti monopoly law, the State Administration of market supervision comprehensively analyzes and evaluates the market share of the operators participating in the concentration in the relevant market and their control over the market, the degree of market concentration, the impact of concentration on market entry and technological progress, the impact of concentration on consumers and other relevant operators, as well as the effectiveness of the additional restrictive commitment scheme proposed by Tencent. During the review process, the State Administration of market supervision extensively solicited opinions from relevant government departments, industry associations, experts and scholars, competitors in the same industry and downstream customers, and listened to Tencent's opinions for many times.\nThe review shows that the relevant market of this case is the online game operation service market and the live game market in China. Tencent's market share in the upstream online game operation service exceeds 40%, ranking first; Tiger teeth and fighting fish have more than 40% and 30% of the downstream live game market shares respectively, ranking first and second, with a total of more than 70%. At present, Tencent has separate control over tiger tooth and joint control over Betta. For example, the merger of tiger tooth and Betta will make Tencent control the merged entity separately, further strengthen Tencent's dominant position in the live game market, and enable Tencent to have the ability and motivation to implement closed-loop management and two-way vertical blockade in the upstream and downstream markets, which has or may have the effect of excluding and limiting competition, which is not conducive to fair competition in the market and may damage the interests of consumers, It is not conducive to the healthy and sustainable development of online games and live game market. After evaluation, Tencent's proposal of additional restrictive conditions commitment can not effectively solve the above competition concerns.\nAccording to Article 28 of the anti monopoly law and Article 35 of the Interim Provisions on the examination of business concentration, the State Administration of market supervision has decided to prohibit such business concentration according to law.\nTencent responded that the company will seriously abide by the review decision, actively cooperate with regulatory requirements, operate in accordance with the law and fulfill its social responsibilities.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"00700":0.9,"DOYU":0.9,"HUYA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2990,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":154249681,"gmtCreate":1625531537743,"gmtModify":1631890915328,"author":{"id":"3584755094881851","authorId":"3584755094881851","name":"MewCat","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584755094881851","idStr":"3584755094881851"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Covid, no demand for o&amp;g, settle covid boost o&amp;g","listText":"Covid, no demand for o&amp;g, settle covid boost o&amp;g","text":"Covid, no demand for o&g, settle covid boost o&g","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/154249681","repostId":"1190430616","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2902,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":155520098,"gmtCreate":1625445520214,"gmtModify":1631890915343,"author":{"id":"3584755094881851","authorId":"3584755094881851","name":"MewCat","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584755094881851","idStr":"3584755094881851"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Fed minutes&nbsp;[思考]&nbsp;","listText":"Fed minutes&nbsp;[思考]&nbsp;","text":"Fed minutes [思考]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/155520098","repostId":"1138258779","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3105,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":151595286,"gmtCreate":1625097649945,"gmtModify":1631890915353,"author":{"id":"3584755094881851","authorId":"3584755094881851","name":"MewCat","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584755094881851","idStr":"3584755094881851"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Going up non-stop","listText":"Going up non-stop","text":"Going up non-stop","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/151595286","repostId":"1178516480","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1178516480","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625094708,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1178516480?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-01 07:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"S&P 500 notches fifth straight record closing high, fifth straight quarterly gain<blockquote>标普500连续第五次创下收盘历史新高，连续第五个季度上涨</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1178516480","media":"Reuters","summary":"NEW YORK (Reuters) - The S&P 500 nabbed its fifth straight record closing high on Wednesday as inves","content":"<p>NEW YORK (Reuters) - The S&amp;P 500 nabbed its fifth straight record closing high on Wednesday as investors ended the month and the quarter by largely shrugging off positive economic data and looking toward Friday’s highly anticipated employment report.</p><p><blockquote>纽约（路透社）--标普500周三连续第五次创下收盘新高，投资者在结束本月和本季度时基本上对积极的经济数据不屑一顾，转而关注周五备受期待的就业报告。</blockquote></p><p> In the last session of 2021’s first half, the indexes were languid and range-bound, with the blue-chip Dow posting gains, while the Nasdaq edged lower.</p><p><blockquote>在 2021 年上半年的最后一个交易日，各指数表现低迷，区间震荡，蓝筹股道琼斯指数上涨，而纳斯达克指数则小幅走低。</blockquote></p><p> All three indexes posted their fifth consecutive quarterly gains, with the S&amp;P rising 8.2%, the Nasdaq advancing 9.5% and the Dow rising 4.6%. The S&amp;P 500 registered its second-best first-half performance since 1998, rising 14.5%.</p><p><blockquote>这三个指数均连续第五个季度上涨，其中标准普尔指数上涨 8.2%，纳斯达克指数上涨 9.5%，道琼斯指数上涨 4.6%。标普500上半年表现创1998年以来第二好，上涨14.5%。</blockquote></p><p> “It’s been a good quarter,” said Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth in Fairfield, Connecticut. “As of last night’s close, the S&amp;P has gained more than 14% year-to-date, topping the Dow and the Nasdaq. That indicates that the stock market is having a broad rally.”</p><p><blockquote>“康涅狄格州费尔菲尔德 Dakota Wealth 高级投资组合经理罗伯特-帕夫利克（Robert Pavlik）说：”这是一个不错的季度。“截至昨晚收盘，标准普尔指数今年迄今已上涨超过 14%，超过道琼斯指数和纳斯达克指数。这表明股市正在全面反弹。”</blockquote></p><p> For the month, the bellwether S&amp;P 500 notched its fifth consecutive advance, while the Dow snapped its four-month winning streak to end slightly lower. The Nasdaq also gained ground in June.</p><p><blockquote>本月，领头羊标普500指数连续第五次上涨，而道琼斯指数则结束了四个月的连涨，收盘小幅走低。纳斯达克在6月份也取得了进展。</blockquote></p><p> This month, investor appetite shifted away from economically sensitive cyclicals in favor of growth stocks.</p><p><blockquote>本月，投资者的兴趣从对经济敏感的周期性股票转向成长型股票。</blockquote></p><p> “Leading sectors year-to-date are what you’d expect,” Pavlik added. “Energy, financials and industrials, and that speaks to an economic environment that’s in the early stages of a cycle.”</p><p><blockquote>“帕夫利克补充说：”今年迄今为止的领先行业是你所期望的。“能源、金融和工业，这表明经济环境正处于周期的早期阶段”。</blockquote></p><p> “(Investors) started the switch back to growth (stocks) after people started to buy in to (Fed Chair Jerome) Powell’s comments that focus on transitory inflation,” Pavlik added.</p><p><blockquote>“帕夫利克补充说：”在人们开始接受（美联储主席杰罗姆）鲍威尔关注短暂通胀的言论后，（投资者）开始转向成长型（股票）。</blockquote></p><p> “Some of the reopening trades have gotten a bit long in the tooth and that’s leading people back to growth.”</p><p><blockquote>“一些重新开放的行业已经有点长了，这正在引导人们恢复增长”。</blockquote></p><p> (Graphic: Growths stocks outperform value in June, narrow YTD gap, )</p><p><blockquote>（图表：6 月份成长型股票跑赢价值，年初至今差距缩小）</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b82b4dfdc765d913811f9d8572e60f6\" tg-width=\"964\" tg-height=\"723\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">“The overall stock market continues to be on a tear, with very consistent gains for quite some time,” said Tim Ghriskey, chief investment strategist at Inverness Counsel in New York. “Valuations, while certainly high by historical standards, have been at a fairly consistent level, benefiting from the economic recovery.”</p><p><blockquote>“纽约因弗内斯律师事务所首席投资策略师蒂姆-格里斯基（Tim Ghriskey）说：”整体股市继续上涨，在相当长一段时间内涨幅非常稳定。“虽然按历史标准来看，估值肯定很高，但受益于经济复苏，估值一直处于相当稳定的水平。”</blockquote></p><p> The private sector added 692,000 jobs in June, breezing past expectations, according to payroll processor ADP. The number is 92,000 higher than the private payroll adds economists predict from the Labor Department’s more comprehensive employment report due on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>根据薪资处理商 ADP 的数据，6 月份私营部门新增就业岗位 692,000 个，轻松超出预期。经济学家在劳工部将于周五发布的更全面的就业报告中补充说，这一数字比私人就业人数高出 9.2 万人。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 210.22 points, or 0.61%, to 34,502.51, the S&amp;P 500 gained 5.7 points, or 0.13%, to 4,297.5 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 24.38 points, or 0.17%, to 14,503.95.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数上涨 210.22 点，或 0.61%，至 34,502.51 点；标普500指数上涨 5.7 点，或 0.13%，至 4,297.5 点；纳斯达克综合指数下跌 24.38 点，或 0.17%，至 14,503.95 点。</blockquote></p><p> Among the 11 major sectors in the S&amp;P, six ended the session higher, with energy enjoying the biggest percentage gain. Real estate was the day’s biggest loser.</p><p><blockquote>在标准普尔的 11 个主要板块中，有 6 个板块收高，其中能源板块涨幅最大。房地产是当天最大的输家。</blockquote></p><p> Boeing Co gained 1.6% after Germany’s defense ministry announced it would buy five of the planemaker’s P-8A maritime control aircraft, coming on the heels of United Airlines unveiling its largest-ever order for new planes.</p><p><blockquote>在德国国防部宣布将购买该飞机制造商的五架 P-8A 海上管制飞机后，波音公司股价上涨了 1.6%。</blockquote></p><p> Walmart jumped 2.7% after announcing on Tuesday that it would start selling a prescription-only insulin analog.</p><p><blockquote>沃尔玛周二宣布将开始销售仅限处方的胰岛素类似物，股价上涨 2.7%。</blockquote></p><p> Micron Technology advanced 2.5% ahead of its quarterly earnings release, but was relatively unchanged in after-hours trading following the chipmaker’s quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>美光科技在发布季度财报前上涨了 2.5%，但在芯片制造商公布季度财报后的盘后交易中股价相对持平。</blockquote></p><p> Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 1.35-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.19-to-1 ratio favored decliners.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所上涨发行量超过下跌发行量，比例为 1.35 比 1；在纳斯达克，1.19 比 1 的比率有利于下跌者。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 posted 20 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 70 new highs and 36 new lows.</p><p><blockquote>标普500创下20个52周新高，没有新低；纳斯达克综合指数创下70个新高和36个新低。</blockquote></p><p> Volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.85 billion shares, compared with the 11.05 billion average over the last 20 trading days.</p><p><blockquote>美国交易所的成交量为 108.5 亿股，而过去 20 个交易日的平均成交量为 110.5 亿股。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>S&P 500 notches fifth straight record closing high, fifth straight quarterly gain<blockquote>标普500连续第五次创下收盘历史新高，连续第五个季度上涨</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nS&P 500 notches fifth straight record closing high, fifth straight quarterly gain<blockquote>标普500连续第五次创下收盘历史新高，连续第五个季度上涨</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-01 07:11</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>NEW YORK (Reuters) - The S&amp;P 500 nabbed its fifth straight record closing high on Wednesday as investors ended the month and the quarter by largely shrugging off positive economic data and looking toward Friday’s highly anticipated employment report.</p><p><blockquote>纽约（路透社）--标普500周三连续第五次创下收盘新高，投资者在结束本月和本季度时基本上对积极的经济数据不屑一顾，转而关注周五备受期待的就业报告。</blockquote></p><p> In the last session of 2021’s first half, the indexes were languid and range-bound, with the blue-chip Dow posting gains, while the Nasdaq edged lower.</p><p><blockquote>在 2021 年上半年的最后一个交易日，各指数表现低迷，区间震荡，蓝筹股道琼斯指数上涨，而纳斯达克指数则小幅走低。</blockquote></p><p> All three indexes posted their fifth consecutive quarterly gains, with the S&amp;P rising 8.2%, the Nasdaq advancing 9.5% and the Dow rising 4.6%. The S&amp;P 500 registered its second-best first-half performance since 1998, rising 14.5%.</p><p><blockquote>这三个指数均连续第五个季度上涨，其中标准普尔指数上涨 8.2%，纳斯达克指数上涨 9.5%，道琼斯指数上涨 4.6%。标普500上半年表现创1998年以来第二好，上涨14.5%。</blockquote></p><p> “It’s been a good quarter,” said Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth in Fairfield, Connecticut. “As of last night’s close, the S&amp;P has gained more than 14% year-to-date, topping the Dow and the Nasdaq. That indicates that the stock market is having a broad rally.”</p><p><blockquote>“康涅狄格州费尔菲尔德 Dakota Wealth 高级投资组合经理罗伯特-帕夫利克（Robert Pavlik）说：”这是一个不错的季度。“截至昨晚收盘，标准普尔指数今年迄今已上涨超过 14%，超过道琼斯指数和纳斯达克指数。这表明股市正在全面反弹。”</blockquote></p><p> For the month, the bellwether S&amp;P 500 notched its fifth consecutive advance, while the Dow snapped its four-month winning streak to end slightly lower. The Nasdaq also gained ground in June.</p><p><blockquote>本月，领头羊标普500指数连续第五次上涨，而道琼斯指数则结束了四个月的连涨，收盘小幅走低。纳斯达克在6月份也取得了进展。</blockquote></p><p> This month, investor appetite shifted away from economically sensitive cyclicals in favor of growth stocks.</p><p><blockquote>本月，投资者的兴趣从对经济敏感的周期性股票转向成长型股票。</blockquote></p><p> “Leading sectors year-to-date are what you’d expect,” Pavlik added. “Energy, financials and industrials, and that speaks to an economic environment that’s in the early stages of a cycle.”</p><p><blockquote>“帕夫利克补充说：”今年迄今为止的领先行业是你所期望的。“能源、金融和工业，这表明经济环境正处于周期的早期阶段”。</blockquote></p><p> “(Investors) started the switch back to growth (stocks) after people started to buy in to (Fed Chair Jerome) Powell’s comments that focus on transitory inflation,” Pavlik added.</p><p><blockquote>“帕夫利克补充说：”在人们开始接受（美联储主席杰罗姆）鲍威尔关注短暂通胀的言论后，（投资者）开始转向成长型（股票）。</blockquote></p><p> “Some of the reopening trades have gotten a bit long in the tooth and that’s leading people back to growth.”</p><p><blockquote>“一些重新开放的行业已经有点长了，这正在引导人们恢复增长”。</blockquote></p><p> (Graphic: Growths stocks outperform value in June, narrow YTD gap, )</p><p><blockquote>（图表：6 月份成长型股票跑赢价值，年初至今差距缩小）</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b82b4dfdc765d913811f9d8572e60f6\" tg-width=\"964\" tg-height=\"723\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">“The overall stock market continues to be on a tear, with very consistent gains for quite some time,” said Tim Ghriskey, chief investment strategist at Inverness Counsel in New York. “Valuations, while certainly high by historical standards, have been at a fairly consistent level, benefiting from the economic recovery.”</p><p><blockquote>“纽约因弗内斯律师事务所首席投资策略师蒂姆-格里斯基（Tim Ghriskey）说：”整体股市继续上涨，在相当长一段时间内涨幅非常稳定。“虽然按历史标准来看，估值肯定很高，但受益于经济复苏，估值一直处于相当稳定的水平。”</blockquote></p><p> The private sector added 692,000 jobs in June, breezing past expectations, according to payroll processor ADP. The number is 92,000 higher than the private payroll adds economists predict from the Labor Department’s more comprehensive employment report due on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>根据薪资处理商 ADP 的数据，6 月份私营部门新增就业岗位 692,000 个，轻松超出预期。经济学家在劳工部将于周五发布的更全面的就业报告中补充说，这一数字比私人就业人数高出 9.2 万人。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 210.22 points, or 0.61%, to 34,502.51, the S&amp;P 500 gained 5.7 points, or 0.13%, to 4,297.5 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 24.38 points, or 0.17%, to 14,503.95.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数上涨 210.22 点，或 0.61%，至 34,502.51 点；标普500指数上涨 5.7 点，或 0.13%，至 4,297.5 点；纳斯达克综合指数下跌 24.38 点，或 0.17%，至 14,503.95 点。</blockquote></p><p> Among the 11 major sectors in the S&amp;P, six ended the session higher, with energy enjoying the biggest percentage gain. Real estate was the day’s biggest loser.</p><p><blockquote>在标准普尔的 11 个主要板块中，有 6 个板块收高，其中能源板块涨幅最大。房地产是当天最大的输家。</blockquote></p><p> Boeing Co gained 1.6% after Germany’s defense ministry announced it would buy five of the planemaker’s P-8A maritime control aircraft, coming on the heels of United Airlines unveiling its largest-ever order for new planes.</p><p><blockquote>在德国国防部宣布将购买该飞机制造商的五架 P-8A 海上管制飞机后，波音公司股价上涨了 1.6%。</blockquote></p><p> Walmart jumped 2.7% after announcing on Tuesday that it would start selling a prescription-only insulin analog.</p><p><blockquote>沃尔玛周二宣布将开始销售仅限处方的胰岛素类似物，股价上涨 2.7%。</blockquote></p><p> Micron Technology advanced 2.5% ahead of its quarterly earnings release, but was relatively unchanged in after-hours trading following the chipmaker’s quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>美光科技在发布季度财报前上涨了 2.5%，但在芯片制造商公布季度财报后的盘后交易中股价相对持平。</blockquote></p><p> Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 1.35-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.19-to-1 ratio favored decliners.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所上涨发行量超过下跌发行量，比例为 1.35 比 1；在纳斯达克，1.19 比 1 的比率有利于下跌者。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 posted 20 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 70 new highs and 36 new lows.</p><p><blockquote>标普500创下20个52周新高，没有新低；纳斯达克综合指数创下70个新高和36个新低。</blockquote></p><p> Volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.85 billion shares, compared with the 11.05 billion average over the last 20 trading days.</p><p><blockquote>美国交易所的成交量为 108.5 亿股，而过去 20 个交易日的平均成交量为 110.5 亿股。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks/sp-500-notches-fifth-straight-record-closing-high-fifth-straight-quarterly-gain-idUSKCN2E619R\">Reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks/sp-500-notches-fifth-straight-record-closing-high-fifth-straight-quarterly-gain-idUSKCN2E619R","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1178516480","content_text":"NEW YORK (Reuters) - The S&P 500 nabbed its fifth straight record closing high on Wednesday as investors ended the month and the quarter by largely shrugging off positive economic data and looking toward Friday’s highly anticipated employment report.\nIn the last session of 2021’s first half, the indexes were languid and range-bound, with the blue-chip Dow posting gains, while the Nasdaq edged lower.\nAll three indexes posted their fifth consecutive quarterly gains, with the S&P rising 8.2%, the Nasdaq advancing 9.5% and the Dow rising 4.6%. The S&P 500 registered its second-best first-half performance since 1998, rising 14.5%.\n“It’s been a good quarter,” said Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth in Fairfield, Connecticut. “As of last night’s close, the S&P has gained more than 14% year-to-date, topping the Dow and the Nasdaq. That indicates that the stock market is having a broad rally.”\nFor the month, the bellwether S&P 500 notched its fifth consecutive advance, while the Dow snapped its four-month winning streak to end slightly lower. The Nasdaq also gained ground in June.\nThis month, investor appetite shifted away from economically sensitive cyclicals in favor of growth stocks.\n“Leading sectors year-to-date are what you’d expect,” Pavlik added. “Energy, financials and industrials, and that speaks to an economic environment that’s in the early stages of a cycle.”\n“(Investors) started the switch back to growth (stocks) after people started to buy in to (Fed Chair Jerome) Powell’s comments that focus on transitory inflation,” Pavlik added.\n“Some of the reopening trades have gotten a bit long in the tooth and that’s leading people back to growth.”\n(Graphic: Growths stocks outperform value in June, narrow YTD gap, )\n“The overall stock market continues to be on a tear, with very consistent gains for quite some time,” said Tim Ghriskey, chief investment strategist at Inverness Counsel in New York. “Valuations, while certainly high by historical standards, have been at a fairly consistent level, benefiting from the economic recovery.”\nThe private sector added 692,000 jobs in June, breezing past expectations, according to payroll processor ADP. The number is 92,000 higher than the private payroll adds economists predict from the Labor Department’s more comprehensive employment report due on Friday.\nThe Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 210.22 points, or 0.61%, to 34,502.51, the S&P 500 gained 5.7 points, or 0.13%, to 4,297.5 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 24.38 points, or 0.17%, to 14,503.95.\nAmong the 11 major sectors in the S&P, six ended the session higher, with energy enjoying the biggest percentage gain. Real estate was the day’s biggest loser.\nBoeing Co gained 1.6% after Germany’s defense ministry announced it would buy five of the planemaker’s P-8A maritime control aircraft, coming on the heels of United Airlines unveiling its largest-ever order for new planes.\nWalmart jumped 2.7% after announcing on Tuesday that it would start selling a prescription-only insulin analog.\nMicron Technology advanced 2.5% ahead of its quarterly earnings release, but was relatively unchanged in after-hours trading following the chipmaker’s quarterly results.\nAdvancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 1.35-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.19-to-1 ratio favored decliners.\nThe S&P 500 posted 20 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 70 new highs and 36 new lows.\nVolume on U.S. exchanges was 10.85 billion shares, compared with the 11.05 billion average over the last 20 trading days.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2551,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":150571030,"gmtCreate":1624923224420,"gmtModify":1631890915369,"author":{"id":"3584755094881851","authorId":"3584755094881851","name":"MewCat","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584755094881851","idStr":"3584755094881851"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good time for finance stocks","listText":"Good time for finance stocks","text":"Good time for finance stocks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/150571030","repostId":"2147837154","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4088,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":127132735,"gmtCreate":1624839114227,"gmtModify":1631890915380,"author":{"id":"3584755094881851","authorId":"3584755094881851","name":"MewCat","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584755094881851","idStr":"3584755094881851"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Slow but steady","listText":"Slow but steady","text":"Slow but steady","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/127132735","repostId":"1104974895","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1104974895","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624764940,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1104974895?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-27 11:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Microsoft Rides Its Cloud Business to a $2 Trillion Market Cap. It’s Not Done Yet.<blockquote>微软的云业务市值达到了 2 万亿美元。还没完成。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104974895","media":"Barrons","summary":"Microsoft is now the second company to boast a $2 trillion market capitalization, following Apple,wh","content":"<p>Microsoft&nbsp;is now the second company to boast a $2 trillion market capitalization, following&nbsp;Apple,which breached that level last August. And Microsoft may go higher yet.</p><p><blockquote>微软现在是继去年 8 月突破这一水平的苹果之后第二家拥有 2 万亿美元市值的公司。微软可能还会走高。</blockquote></p><p> Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives this past week reiterated his Outperform rating on the software giant, lifting his price target on the shares to $325 from $310. That represents a potential gain of more than 20%, which would take the company’s market value to $2.4 trillion. His enthusiasm for the stock is driven by Microsoft’s cloud business, Azure.</p><p><blockquote>Wedbush 分析师丹尼尔·艾夫斯 (Daniel Ives) 上周重申了他对这家软件巨头的跑赢大盘评级，将该股目标价从 310 美元上调至 325 美元。这意味着潜在收益将超过 20%，公司市值将达到 2.4 万亿美元。他对这只股票的热情是由微软的云业务 Azure 推动的。</blockquote></p><p> On Wednesday, Microsoft shares inched up 0.1% to $265.79, a new high, boosting its market cap to $2.004 trillion. (Apple is at roughly $2.2 trillion.) Ives notes that June channel checks find improving demand for Azure. “The Azure cloud growth story is hitting its next gear of growth,” he writes. “We are seeing deal sizes continue to increase markedly as enterprisewide digital transformation shifts are accelerating with CIOs all focused on readying their respective enterprises for a cloud-driven architecture.”</p><p><blockquote>周三，微软股价小幅上涨 0.1%，至 265.79 美元，创下新高，市值达到 2.004 万亿美元。（苹果的市值约为 2.2 万亿美元。）艾夫斯指出，6 月份的渠道检查发现对 Azure 的需求有所改善。“他写道：”Azure 云的增长故事正在进入下一个增长阶段。“随着企业范围内的数字化转型转型加速，首席信息官们都专注于让各自的企业为云驱动的架构做好准备，我们看到交易规模将继续显著增加。”</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street concerns that cloud growth will moderate coming out of the pandemic run counter to the deal activity Microsoft is seeing, Ives writes, noting that June-quarter results appear to be “robust.” He thinks Microsoft is still only about 35% into the conversion of its installed application base into the cloud.</p><p><blockquote>艾夫斯写道，华尔街担心大流行病后的云增长会放缓，这与微软的交易活动背道而驰，并指出 6 月份的季度业绩似乎 “强劲”。他认为微软将其安装的应用程序基础转化为云的进度仍然只有大约35%。</blockquote></p><p> Ives sees continuing global “digital transformation” as a $1 trillion opportunity, and says Microsoft will disproportionately benefit. “Microsoft remains our favorite large-cap cloud play and we believe the stock will start to move higher over the coming quarters...,” he writes. “The growth story at Microsoft is not slowing down.”</p><p><blockquote>艾夫斯认为，持续的全球 “数字化转型 ”是一个价值 1 万亿美元的机遇，并表示微软将从中受益不成比例。“他写道：”微软仍然是我们最喜欢的大盘云公司，我们相信该股将在未来几个季度开始走高。“微软的增长故事并没有放缓”。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19e4bb0961389beaa2711931e02dc060\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"672\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a62e0638b1f4f9c28301e4d93721571\" tg-width=\"981\" tg-height=\"684\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Microsoft Rides Its Cloud Business to a $2 Trillion Market Cap. It’s Not Done Yet.<blockquote>微软的云业务市值达到了 2 万亿美元。还没完成。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMicrosoft Rides Its Cloud Business to a $2 Trillion Market Cap. It’s Not Done Yet.<blockquote>微软的云业务市值达到了 2 万亿美元。还没完成。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-27 11:35</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Microsoft&nbsp;is now the second company to boast a $2 trillion market capitalization, following&nbsp;Apple,which breached that level last August. And Microsoft may go higher yet.</p><p><blockquote>微软现在是继去年 8 月突破这一水平的苹果之后第二家拥有 2 万亿美元市值的公司。微软可能还会走高。</blockquote></p><p> Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives this past week reiterated his Outperform rating on the software giant, lifting his price target on the shares to $325 from $310. That represents a potential gain of more than 20%, which would take the company’s market value to $2.4 trillion. His enthusiasm for the stock is driven by Microsoft’s cloud business, Azure.</p><p><blockquote>Wedbush 分析师丹尼尔·艾夫斯 (Daniel Ives) 上周重申了他对这家软件巨头的跑赢大盘评级，将该股目标价从 310 美元上调至 325 美元。这意味着潜在收益将超过 20%，公司市值将达到 2.4 万亿美元。他对这只股票的热情是由微软的云业务 Azure 推动的。</blockquote></p><p> On Wednesday, Microsoft shares inched up 0.1% to $265.79, a new high, boosting its market cap to $2.004 trillion. (Apple is at roughly $2.2 trillion.) Ives notes that June channel checks find improving demand for Azure. “The Azure cloud growth story is hitting its next gear of growth,” he writes. “We are seeing deal sizes continue to increase markedly as enterprisewide digital transformation shifts are accelerating with CIOs all focused on readying their respective enterprises for a cloud-driven architecture.”</p><p><blockquote>周三，微软股价小幅上涨 0.1%，至 265.79 美元，创下新高，市值达到 2.004 万亿美元。（苹果的市值约为 2.2 万亿美元。）艾夫斯指出，6 月份的渠道检查发现对 Azure 的需求有所改善。“他写道：”Azure 云的增长故事正在进入下一个增长阶段。“随着企业范围内的数字化转型转型加速，首席信息官们都专注于让各自的企业为云驱动的架构做好准备，我们看到交易规模将继续显著增加。”</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street concerns that cloud growth will moderate coming out of the pandemic run counter to the deal activity Microsoft is seeing, Ives writes, noting that June-quarter results appear to be “robust.” He thinks Microsoft is still only about 35% into the conversion of its installed application base into the cloud.</p><p><blockquote>艾夫斯写道，华尔街担心大流行病后的云增长会放缓，这与微软的交易活动背道而驰，并指出 6 月份的季度业绩似乎 “强劲”。他认为微软将其安装的应用程序基础转化为云的进度仍然只有大约35%。</blockquote></p><p> Ives sees continuing global “digital transformation” as a $1 trillion opportunity, and says Microsoft will disproportionately benefit. “Microsoft remains our favorite large-cap cloud play and we believe the stock will start to move higher over the coming quarters...,” he writes. “The growth story at Microsoft is not slowing down.”</p><p><blockquote>艾夫斯认为，持续的全球 “数字化转型 ”是一个价值 1 万亿美元的机遇，并表示微软将从中受益不成比例。“他写道：”微软仍然是我们最喜欢的大盘云公司，我们相信该股将在未来几个季度开始走高。“微软的增长故事并没有放缓”。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19e4bb0961389beaa2711931e02dc060\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"672\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a62e0638b1f4f9c28301e4d93721571\" tg-width=\"981\" tg-height=\"684\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/microsoft-market-cap-51624670572?mod=RTA\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/microsoft-market-cap-51624670572?mod=RTA","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1104974895","content_text":"Microsoft is now the second company to boast a $2 trillion market capitalization, following Apple,which breached that level last August. And Microsoft may go higher yet.\nWedbush analyst Daniel Ives this past week reiterated his Outperform rating on the software giant, lifting his price target on the shares to $325 from $310. That represents a potential gain of more than 20%, which would take the company’s market value to $2.4 trillion. His enthusiasm for the stock is driven by Microsoft’s cloud business, Azure.\nOn Wednesday, Microsoft shares inched up 0.1% to $265.79, a new high, boosting its market cap to $2.004 trillion. (Apple is at roughly $2.2 trillion.) Ives notes that June channel checks find improving demand for Azure. “The Azure cloud growth story is hitting its next gear of growth,” he writes. “We are seeing deal sizes continue to increase markedly as enterprisewide digital transformation shifts are accelerating with CIOs all focused on readying their respective enterprises for a cloud-driven architecture.”\nWall Street concerns that cloud growth will moderate coming out of the pandemic run counter to the deal activity Microsoft is seeing, Ives writes, noting that June-quarter results appear to be “robust.” He thinks Microsoft is still only about 35% into the conversion of its installed application base into the cloud.\nIves sees continuing global “digital transformation” as a $1 trillion opportunity, and says Microsoft will disproportionately benefit. “Microsoft remains our favorite large-cap cloud play and we believe the stock will start to move higher over the coming quarters...,” he writes. “The growth story at Microsoft is not slowing down.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MSFT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3330,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":125858685,"gmtCreate":1624668819147,"gmtModify":1631890915392,"author":{"id":"3584755094881851","authorId":"3584755094881851","name":"MewCat","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584755094881851","idStr":"3584755094881851"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"FED rate will go up soon&nbsp;","listText":"FED rate will go up soon&nbsp;","text":"FED rate will go up soon","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/125858685","repostId":"1177764085","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3309,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":880486537,"gmtCreate":1631072200229,"gmtModify":1631883943550,"author":{"id":"3584755094881851","authorId":"3584755094881851","name":"MewCat","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584755094881851","idStr":"3584755094881851"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Amazon will focus on cloud service，e-commerce eventually just price war. The cheapest win the market shares","listText":"Amazon will focus on cloud service，e-commerce eventually just price war. The cheapest win the market shares","text":"Amazon will focus on cloud service，e-commerce eventually just price war. The cheapest win the market shares","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/880486537","repostId":"1143120804","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1143120804","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631072080,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1143120804?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-08 11:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon: Stock Still Attractive With Shift Towards E-Commerce And Cloud Growth<blockquote>亚马逊：随着转向电子商务和云增长，股票仍然具有吸引力</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143120804","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth ra","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth rate forecast to 15.8%.</li>  <li>While growth is moderating following a stellar year with robust activity, the company remains poised to benefit from the e-commerce shift with a forecast penetration rate of 22% of retail.</li>  <li>AWS is expected to remain as the number 1 market leader for the foreseeable future.</li>  <li>We revised our valuation using DCF analysis to obtain a new price target of $4,303,18 from $3,358.73.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2ca0bbeb0cb7be66a257f4e9d5f5fa1\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>4kodiak/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>公司2020年的收入增长超出了我们的预期，我们将其增长率预测修正为15.8%。</li><li>尽管在经历了强劲活动的辉煌一年后，增长正在放缓，但该公司仍准备从电子商务转变中受益，预计零售渗透率为 22%。</li><li>在可预见的未来，AWS 预计仍将是第一大市场领导者。</li><li>我们使用 DCF 分析修改了估值，从 3,358.73 美元获得了 4,303,18 美元的新目标价。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>4kodiak/iStock 未通过 Getty Images 发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Since our previous&nbsp;coverage, Amazon Inc.'s (AMZN) stock has risen by 26% and exceeded our revenue growth expectations of 24.5% and finished 2020 up by 37.6% on exceptional growth of its online retail business growing by 40% to nearly $200 bln and third-party services at $80bln. In this analysis, we re-examine its key growth drivers namely online retail, third party services and AWS.</p><p><blockquote>自我们之前的报道以来，亚马逊公司 (AMZN) 的股价已上涨 26%，超过了我们 24.5% 的收入增长预期，并在 2020 年底上涨了 37.6%，原因是其在线零售业务增长了 40%，达到近 2000 亿美元，第三方服务为 800 亿美元。在本分析中，我们重新审视了其主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方服务和 AWS。</blockquote></p><p> Despite the softness in Q2 of its online store sales growth of 13% and soft Q3&nbsp;guidance&nbsp;of 13% YoY at the midpoint, indicating a sign of normalizing growth, the secular growth outlook of the e-commerce market remains attractive from the continued shift towards online retail which Amazon has an established market position. As more consumers shift their purchasing behavior online, the share of e-commerce is forecasted to reach 22% by 2023 from 18% in 2020. We believe that Amazon's well-established market position with a massive Prime membership base as loyal customers and solid logistics and shipping network providing it with an advantage as seen with the rise of its e-commerce marketplace with third-party sellers. Moreover, its cloud business is expected to remain the market leader of the cloud infrastructure market for the foreseeable future with continued commitment towards growth and underpinned by rising data volumes.</p><p><blockquote>尽管第二季度在线商店销售额增长 13%，第三季度中点同比增长 13%，表明增长正常化的迹象，但由于亚马逊继续转向在线零售，电子商务市场的长期增长前景仍然具有吸引力，亚马逊在在线零售方面拥有既定的市场地位。随着越来越多的消费者将购买行为转移到网上，预计到 2023 年，电子商务的份额将从 2020 年的 18% 达到 22%。我们相信，亚马逊稳固的市场地位、庞大的 Prime 会员基础（作为忠实客户）以及稳固的物流和运输网络为其提供了优势，这一点从其电子商务市场与第三方卖家的崛起中可见一斑。此外，在可预见的未来，其云业务预计仍将是云基础设施市场的市场领导者，并将继续致力于增长，并以不断增长的数据量为支撑。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a78658eabc40ec60c6713019d6f800c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Amazon</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：亚马逊</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>E-commerce Sales Outlook Still Attractive Despite Normalizing Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>尽管增长正常化，电子商务销售前景仍然有吸引力</b></blockquote></p><p> Amazon's online store&nbsp;sales&nbsp;have surged 40% in 2020 from 14.8% in the prior year as it benefitted from the prolonged lockdowns and restrictions on physical retailers which saw the accelerated shift towards e-commerce adoption. However, despite the slowdown in its online store growth in Q2 2021 of 13% YoY compared to 41% in Q1, we believe that the company is poised to continue reaping the secular tailwinds of the rising e-commerce adoption.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊的在线商店销售额在2020年从上一年的14.8%飙升了40%，因为它受益于对实体零售商的长期封锁和限制，这加速了向电子商务的转变。然而，尽管 2021 年第二季度其在线商店增长同比放缓 13%，而第一季度为 41%，但我们相信该公司已准备好继续收获电子商务采用率上升的长期顺风。</blockquote></p><p> According to eMarketer, the share of e-commerce sales is forecasted to&nbsp;reach&nbsp;22% of global retail sales as consumers continue to shift towards online buying. Global retail sales are forecasted to bound back by 7.2% with the vaccination drives across the world and easing business restrictions. Thus, the e-commerce sales forecast is 10.2% in 2021 which represents a normalized growth from 27.6% in 2019 as the penetration rate surged to 18% from 14% in the past year.</p><p><blockquote>根据eMarketer的数据，随着消费者继续转向网上购物，电子商务销售的份额预计将达到全球零售额的22%。随着全球疫苗接种运动和商业限制的放松，全球零售额预计将回升7.2%。因此，由于渗透率从去年的14%飙升至18%，2021年的电子商务销售额预测为10.2%，较2019年的27.6%正常增长。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>Global E-Commerce Market ($ bln)</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>全球电子商务市场（十亿美元）</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2016</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2016</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2017</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2017</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2018</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2018</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2019</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2019</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2020</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2020</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2021F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2021F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2022F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2022F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2023F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2023F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Total Global Retail Sales ('a')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>全球零售总额（“A”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>21,453</p><p><blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22,904</p><p><blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>23,560</p><p><blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>24,780</p><p><blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>23,778</p><p><blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25,490</p><p><blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27,172</p><p><blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>28,395</p><p><blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>-4.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>7.20%</p><p><blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6.60%</p><p><blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.50%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1,845</p><p><blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2,382</p><p><blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2,982</p><p><blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>3,354</p><p><blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4,280</p><p><blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4,716</p><p><blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5,434</p><p><blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6,247</p><p><blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>29.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>12.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>10.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Penetration Rate ('c')</b></p><p><blockquote><tr><td><b>渗透率（'c'）</b></td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9%</p><p><blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>10%</p><p><blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>12%</p><p><blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>14%</p><p><blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>18%</p><p><blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19%</p><p><blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>20%</p><p><blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22%</p><p><blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> <i>* B = C x A</i></p><p><blockquote><i>* B = C x A</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Statista, eMarketer, Khaveen Investments</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源：Statista、eMarketer、Khaveen Investments</i></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Amazon's established market positioning is an added competitive strength of it to capitalize on the market growth. More specifically, it is hard to win over the company in the key criteria of price, choice and convenience. Evidently, the company's Prime membership continued to grow in 2020 by 15% to 142.5 mln members or roughly 43% of the US&nbsp;population. This indicates the strong attraction of loyal customers to the company providing it with a massive install base. Through Prime membership, consumers are also pushed to buy more to obtain various benefits.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊既定的市场定位是其利用市场增长的额外竞争实力。更具体地说，在价格、选择和便利性等关键标准上，很难赢得该公司的青睐。显然，该公司的主要会员在2020年继续增长15%，达到1.425亿会员，约占美国人口的43%。这表明忠实客户对该公司的强大吸引力，为其提供了庞大的安装基础。通过Prime会员，也促使消费者购买更多，以获得各种福利。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/125c2baa1b52e2787075210f05321e20\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"492\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Backlinko</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Backlinko</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In addition to Prime members, the company has been able to consistently&nbsp;attract&nbsp;sellers to its platform with 3.3 mln new sellers since 2017 or 3,718 per day. Currently, it has 9.7 mlnsellersworldwide across the US, UK, Germany, Japan, etc. Thus, the company has established itself as the dominant market leader and is far ahead of its next closest competitor in terms of e-commerce sales.</p><p><blockquote>除了Prime会员，该公司自2017年以来一直能够持续吸引卖家到其平台，有330万新卖家，即每天3718家。目前，它在美国、英国、德国、日本等地拥有970万卖家。因此，该公司已成为占主导地位的市场领导者，并在电子商务销售方面远远领先于其次最接近的竞争对手。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6272ba7ee8cf6f5aab477b8425f34923\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"355\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Marketing Charts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：营销图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Its market leadership is quite extensive across different product categories and markets as illustrated in the table below. For example, it accounts for Its consumer &amp; consumer electronics sales is the largest product category accounting for 50.2% of the products' total e-commerce sales in the US and 26.7% of total retail sales. This is followed by apparel &amp; accessories, books music &amp; video and furniture and home furnishings which is 32%, 83.2% and 34.2 % of e-commerce sales.</p><p><blockquote>如下表所示，其市场领导地位在不同的产品类别和市场中相当广泛。例如，其消费电子产品销售额是最大的产品类别，占美国电子商务产品总销售额的 50.2%，占零售总额的 26.7%。其次是服装和配饰、书籍、音乐和视频以及家具和家居用品，分别占电子商务销售额的32%、83.2%和34.2%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6765530fd408a02c75515a712af4087\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"725\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: eMarketer</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：eMarketer</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Among the product categories, the electronics category is the most popular among shoppers in the US with 44% of US shoppers having&nbsp;purchased&nbsp;electronics on Amazon. It also sells its own electronicdevicesincluding Echo smart speakers which account for 70% of the US market share followed by Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) and continues to develop the product with newer generations and software&nbsp;updates. In 2020, the company shipped over 38 mln smart speaker&nbsp;units&nbsp;and accounted for 28.3% of the global market share of shipments. We estimated its revenues from the sale of its smart speakers based on the average&nbsp;price&nbsp;of the Echo product family of $103 to be around $3.94 bln in revenues which is around 2% of its online store revenues. However, it also faces increasing competition especially from the Chinese manufacturers such as Baidu (BIDU) and Xiaomi (OTCPK:XIACF) which dominate the China market.</p><p><blockquote>在产品类别中，电子产品类别最受美国购物者欢迎，44%的美国购物者在亚马逊上购买过电子产品。它还销售自己的电子设备，包括Echo智能扬声器，占美国市场份额的70%，其次是谷歌（GOOG）和苹果（AAPL），并继续开发新一代产品和软件更新。2020年，该公司智能音箱出货量超过3800万台，占全球出货量市场份额的28.3%。根据 Echo 产品系列 103 美元的平均价格，我们估计其智能扬声器销售收入约为 39.4 亿美元，约占其在线商店收入的 2%。然而，它也面临着日益激烈的竞争，尤其是来自主导中国市场的百度（BIDU）和小米（OTCPK：XIACF）等中国制造商的竞争。</blockquote></p><p> All in all, the company has a massive product breadth of 12 mln&nbsp;products&nbsp;excluding books, media, wine and services and with the growing seller base, we expect this product breadth to continue to be expanded and provide customers unique value proposition with product variety.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，该公司拥有1200万种产品，不包括书籍、媒体、葡萄酒和服务，随着卖家基础的增长，我们预计这一产品范围将继续扩大，并通过产品种类为客户提供独特的价值主张。</blockquote></p><p> Thus, we expect its solid market dominance with an ecosystem of an established customer base and loyal Prime members and a large seller base with extensive market leadership across various key product categories with a broad product breadth to support its long-term growth. We projected its online store growth based on our expectation of its market share at 4.5% based on a 5-year average on the global e-commerce sales.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们预计其拥有稳固的市场主导地位，拥有由已建立的客户群和忠诚的 Prime 会员组成的生态系统，以及在各种关键产品类别中拥有广泛市场领导地位的大型卖家基础，产品范围广泛，以支持其长期增长。我们预测其在线商店的增长基于我们对其市场份额的预期，基于全球电子商务销售额的 5 年平均水平，为 4.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>Amazon Online Stores ($ bln)</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>亚马逊在线商店（十亿美元）</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2016</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2016</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2017</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2017</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2018</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2018</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2019</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2019</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2020</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2020</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2021F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2021F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2022F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2022F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2023F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2023F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Total Retail Sales ('a')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>零售总额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>21,453</p><p><blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22,904</p><p><blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>23,560</p><p><blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>24,780</p><p><blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>23,778</p><p><blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25,490</p><p><blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27,172</p><p><blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>28,395</p><p><blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>-4.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>7.20%</p><p><blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6.60%</p><p><blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.50%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1,845</p><p><blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2,382</p><p><blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2,982</p><p><blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>3,354</p><p><blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4,280</p><p><blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4,716</p><p><blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5,434</p><p><blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6,247</p><p><blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>29.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>12.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>10.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Penetration Rate ('c')</b></p><p><blockquote><tr><td><b>渗透率（'c'）</b></td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9%</p><p><blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></p><p></p><p></td>    <td>10%</p><p><blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>12%</p><p><blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>14%</p><p><blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>18%</p><p><blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19%</p><p><blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>20%</p><p><blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22%</p><p><blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>16.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>16.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>20.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>20.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>17.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>17.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>11.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>11.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>32.4%</p><p><blockquote><td>32.4%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>2.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>8.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>10.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>10.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Amazon Online Stores Revenues ('d')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店收入（“d”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>91.43</p><p><blockquote><td>91.43</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>108.35</p><p><blockquote><td>108.35</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>122.99</p><p><blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>141.25</p><p><blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>197.35</p><p><blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>211.74</p><p><blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>244.02</p><p><blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>280.50</p><p><blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>18.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>18.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>13.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>14.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>39.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>7.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Amazon Online Stores Market Share ('e')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店市场份额（“e”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>5.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> <i>* B = A x C</i></p><p><blockquote><i>* B = A x C</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>*D = B x E</i></p><p><blockquote><i>*D = B x E</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen Investments</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Rise of Third-party Seller Services</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第三方卖家服务的兴起</b></blockquote></p><p> Another major advantage of the company is its logistics and shipping operations, which has become an impenetrable moat that few other companies will ever have the resources or ability to match, with Amazon partnering with most major delivery providers in the country. By leveraging its robust network, it offers programs to enable sellers to sell their products through its marketplace and fulfill orders through the company.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的另一个主要优势是其物流和航运业务，这已经成为一条坚不可摧的护城河，很少有其他公司有资源或能力与之匹敌，亚马逊与该国大多数主要的送货提供商都有合作。通过利用其强大的网络，它提供了使卖家能够通过其市场销售产品并通过公司履行订单的计划。</blockquote></p><p> With Fulfillment by Amazon ('FBA'), third party sellersstore&nbsp;products in Amazon's fulfillment centers, and it picks, packs, ships, and provide customer service for these products. Amazon is not the seller but earns commissions and related fulfillment and shipping fees including inventory management, payment processing, shipment tracking and reporting from the arrangements from its third-party sellers who are largely comprised of small- and medium-sized businesses.</p><p><blockquote>通过亚马逊履行（“FBA”），第三方卖家在亚马逊的履行中心存储产品，并为这些产品挑选、包装、运输和提供客户服务。亚马逊不是卖家，但从主要由中小型企业组成的第三方卖家的安排中赚取佣金和相关的履行和运输费用，包括库存管理、支付处理、运输跟踪和报告。</blockquote></p><p> Selling on Amazon as a third-party seller is an increasingly popular option for sellers. It ultimately&nbsp;provides&nbsp;more flexibility and control, a stronger brand presence, and better data access. Over the past years, the rise of third-party sellers on Amazon is seen with the rising&nbsp;share&nbsp;of third-party sales as a % of its gross merchandise sales at 62% of total sales.</p><p><blockquote>作为第三方卖家在亚马逊上销售是卖家越来越受欢迎的选择。它最终提供了更多的灵活性和控制、更强的品牌形象和更好的数据访问。在过去的几年里，亚马逊上第三方卖家的崛起，第三方销售额占其商品总销售额的百分比不断上升，占总销售额的62%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed0a2a75af197d4bf9dca92caab27d6c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"539\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: FourWeekMBA</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：四周MBA</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The chart below further illustrates Amazon's large network of logistics and shipping. Its fulfillment center network is one of several ways it&nbsp;enhances&nbsp;its logistics and shipping process taking on FedEx and UPS and has been ramping up efforts to launch its delivery network as well with growing fleets of airplanes, drones and vans. Amazon's own logistics business&nbsp;delivered&nbsp;1.9 bln packages in the US.</p><p><blockquote>下图进一步说明了亚马逊庞大的物流和航运网络。其履行中心网络是其增强物流和运输流程的几种方式之一，与联邦快递和 UPS 竞争，并且一直在加大力度推出其送货网络，以及不断增长的飞机、无人机和货车机队。亚马逊自己的物流业务在美国递送了19亿个包裹。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5732f32df08132a67f1f9ead2376b2fb\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"233\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: WebFX</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：WebFX</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Moreover, its wide logistics and shipping coverage with over 100 active warehouses across the US with the highest number of facilities in California, Texas and New Jersey. Additionally, it is expanding heavily in the south with the highest number of planned warehouses. For example, the upcoming&nbsp;opening&nbsp;of a 1 million-square-foot fulfillmentcenter in Missouri in 2021 where employees will pack and ship larger-sized customer items like patio furniture, outdoor equipment or rugs. In 2020, it&nbsp;announced&nbsp;plans for 7 new fulfillmentcenters including a 600,000-square-foot facility in Florida, an 855,000-square foot facility in Tennessee and a 625,000square-foot fulfillment center in Texas.</p><p><blockquote>此外，其广泛的物流和运输覆盖范围，在美国拥有100多个活跃仓库，其中加利福尼亚州、德克萨斯州和新泽西州的设施数量最多。此外，它正在南部大力扩张，规划仓库数量最多。例如，密苏里州即将于2021年开设一个100万平方英尺的履行中心，员工将在那里包装和运输较大尺寸的客户物品，如庭院家具、户外设备或地毯。2020 年，该公司宣布了 7 个新履行中心的计划，包括佛罗里达州 600,000 平方英尺的设施、田纳西州 855,000 平方英尺的设施和德克萨斯州 625,000 平方英尺的履行中心。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d45f3a6df0a41b23e4f1d8fe2edb77d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: CNBC</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：CNBC</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Overall, these are among the factors which lead to the company's strength from its wide logistics network in terms of shipping speed. The company is highly popular for its speedy shipping and even has&nbsp;free&nbsp;Two-Day and even Same Day Shipping Programs for Prime members. Based on the survey below, the majority or 80% cited fast and free shipping as the major reason for choosing Amazon. We believe that the company's planned expansion would continue to enhance its logistics network and maintain its popularity among customers.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，这些都是导致该公司凭借其广泛的物流网络在运输速度方面实力的因素。该公司因其快速运输而非常受欢迎，甚至为Prime会员提供免费的两天甚至当天运输计划。根据下面的调查，大多数或80%的人认为快速和免费送货是选择亚马逊的主要原因。我们相信，本公司的扩张计划将继续加强其物流网络，并维持其在客户中的受欢迎程度。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4143366dbcb762fad253420cdb1b5f1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"409\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Statista</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> We forecasted the company's retail third-party seller services revenues which consist of fulfillment service-related revenues derived from the sales from third-party sellers. Amazon's third-party gross merchandise sales are forecasted to increase its share of total retail e-commerce sales as a growth rate of 9% based on the past 5-year average with the rising popularity of third-party sales on its marketplace. Moreover, we also forecasted the share of revenues that Amazon earns to grow by 1% from 27.3% based on the 2-year average as Amazon continues to expand its fulfillment capabilities to cater to its third-party sellers. This trend is also believed to be significant for margin expansion of the company as gross margins third-party seller services isestimatedto be between 60% to 75% of sales which is lower than AWS at 80% but still higher than the company's overall gross margin of 37% due to high costs tied up with the cost of sales which&nbsp;represents&nbsp;60% of its total sales.</p><p><blockquote>我们预测了公司的零售第三方卖家服务收入，其中包括来自第三方卖家销售的履行服务相关收入。随着第三方销售在其市场上越来越受欢迎，基于过去5年的平均水平，亚马逊的第三方商品总销售额预计将以9%的增长率增加其在零售电子商务总销售额中的份额。此外，随着亚马逊继续扩大其履行能力以迎合第三方卖家，我们还预测亚马逊的收入份额将从两年平均水平的 27.3% 增长 1%。这一趋势也被认为对公司的利润率扩张具有重要意义，因为第三方卖家服务的毛利率估计在销售额的 60% 至 75% 之间，低于 AWS 的 80%，但仍高于公司的整体毛利率 37% 由于高成本与占总销售额 60% 的销售成本相关。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>Third-Party Seller Services Revenues ($ bln)</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>第三方卖家服务收入（十亿美元）</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2016</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2016</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2017</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2017</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2018</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2018</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2019</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2019</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2020</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2020</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2021F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2021F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2022F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2022F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2023F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2023F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Global Retail E-commerce Sales ('a')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>全球零售电子商务销售额（“A”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1,845</p><p><blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2,382</p><p><blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2,982</p><p><blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>3,354</p><p><blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4,280</p><p><blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4,716</p><p><blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5,434</p><p><blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6,247</p><p><blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>29.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>12.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>10.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Amazon Third Party Market Share ('b')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊第三方市场份额（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>5.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>5.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5.4%</p><p><blockquote><td>5.4%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>6.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>6.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>7.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>7.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>8.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>8.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>8.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>21%</p><p><blockquote><td>21%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>-2%</p><p><blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>-2%</p><p><blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>11%</p><p><blockquote><td>11%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>16%</p><p><blockquote><td>16%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9%</p><p><blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9%</p><p><blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9%</p><p><blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Third-party (Amazon marketplace) GMV ('c')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>第三方（亚马逊市场）GMV（'c'）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>103</p><p><blockquote><td>103</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>130</p><p><blockquote><td>130</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>160</p><p><blockquote><td>160</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>200</p><p><blockquote><td>200</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>295</p><p><blockquote><td>295</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>353</p><p><blockquote><td>353</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>443</p><p><blockquote><td>443</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>553</p><p><blockquote><td>553</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>26.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>26.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>23.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>23.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>47.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>47.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>19.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>% Of Revenues ('d')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>占收入百分比（'d'）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>22.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>24.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>24.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>26.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>26.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>26.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>26.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>27.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>27.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>28.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>28.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>9.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>9.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>0.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>0.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>1.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Retail third-party seller services revenues ('e')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务收入（「e」）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22.99</p><p><blockquote><td>22.99</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>31.88</p><p><blockquote><td>31.88</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>42.75</p><p><blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>53.76</p><p><blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>80.46</p><p><blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>97.37</p><p><blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>123.25</p><p><blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>155.61</p><p><blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>38.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>38.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>34.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>49.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>21.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>26.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>26.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> <i>*C = A x B</i></p><p><blockquote><i>*C = A x B</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>*E = C x D</i></p><p><blockquote><i>*E = C x D</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Amazon, Statista, Khaveen Investments</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源：亚马逊、Statista、Khaveen Investments</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>AWS Growth by Data Volume Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AWS 通过数据量增长实现增长</b></blockquote></p><p> Another key area of growth of the company is cloud computing with notable largeclientssuch as Netflix (NFLX), Verizon (VZ), Capital One (COF), McDonald's (MCD). AWS revenues grew strongly at 29.5% in 2020 with a market share of 31.8% of the cloud infrastructuremarket. Since its launch nearly 2 decades ago, it has grown to become the market leader for years and looks set to maintain the status quo for the foreseeable future despite rising competition especially from Microsoft (MSFT) and Google gaining market share outpacing Amazon's growth.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的另一个关键增长领域是云计算，拥有 Netflix (NFLX)、Verizon (VZ)、Capital One (COF)、麦当劳 (MCD) 等著名大客户。2020年，AWS收入强劲增长29.5%，在云基础设施市场的市场份额为31.8%。自近20年前推出以来，它多年来已成长为市场领导者，尽管竞争日益激烈，尤其是来自微软（MSFT）和谷歌的市场份额超过了亚马逊的增长，但它似乎将在可预见的未来维持现状。</blockquote></p><p> The rapid growth of the cloud infrastructure market is underpinned by the rising volume of global data volume creation at aCAGRof 23% until 2025 as data volume is projected to grow to more than 180 zettabytes as the world becomes more data-driven with the rise of data analytics, 5G and IoT spurring the growth of data creation.</p><p><blockquote>云基础设施市场的快速增长是由aCAGRof全球数据量创建量的增长支撑的，到2025年将增长23%，因为随着数据分析的兴起，随着世界变得更加数据驱动，数据量预计将增长到180 zettabytes以上，5G和物联网刺激了数据创建的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d467bae68efe047fa8c695360d5b551c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen Investments</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We projected the growth of the cloud infrastructure market based on the forecasted growth of data volume at a 23%&nbsp;CAGR&nbsp;through 2025 at an average cloud infrastructure/data growth factor of 1.72.</p><p><blockquote>我们预测云基础设施市场的增长是基于到2025年数据量的预测复合年增长率为23%，平均云基础设施/数据增长系数为1.72。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd3a646de29cd8f5659eeaabcbf4831d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>* A = B x C Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>* a = B x C 资料来源：Statista、Khaveen Investments</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Thus, despite the plateauing market share of AWS as competitors like Microsoft outpaces its growth, we still believe in the massive opportunity in the cloud infrastructure market with the growing data volumes. Not to mention, the company has highlighted its commitment towards AWS with new client relationships such as major sports leagues around the world including National Hockey League, the PGA Tour, Formula 1 and the German Bundesliga. Furthermore, it also recently&nbsp;announced&nbsp;a relationship with Dish Network to build out cloud-based 5G infrastructure and would expand its data center footprint in Israel and the United Arab Emirates. It currently offers 80 availability zones across 25 geographic regions and plans to launch 15 more availability zones to support its cloud growth.</p><p><blockquote>因此，尽管随着微软等竞争对手的增长速度超过AWS的市场份额趋于稳定，但我们仍然相信随着数据量的增长，云基础设施市场存在巨大机遇。更不用说，该公司还通过新的客户关系强调了其对AWS的承诺，如世界各地的主要体育联盟，包括国家曲棍球联盟、PGA巡回赛、一级方程式赛车和德国德甲联赛。此外，它最近还宣布与Dish Network建立合作关系，建立基于云的5G基础设施，并将扩大其在以色列和阿拉伯联合酋长国的数据中心足迹。它目前在25个地理区域提供80个可用性区域，并计划再推出15个可用性区域，以支持其云的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ebc384fe7bf254090200574fd352254\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Canalys, Khaveen Investments</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：Canalys、Khaveen Investments</span></p></blockquote></p><p> All in all, we projected AWS's revenue growth based on our market share forecast assumptions that its market share leadership is slowly chipped away by fast-growing competitors notably Microsoft but still maintaining its market leadership backed by solid large client relationship leveraging AWS. Based on a forecasted market share of 30.7% by 2023, we expect AWS revenues to grow to $81.5 bln.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，我们预测 AWS 的收入增长是基于我们的市场份额预测假设，即其市场份额领先地位正在被快速增长的竞争对手（尤其是微软）慢慢蚕食，但在利用 AWS 的稳固大客户关系的支持下，仍保持其市场领先地位。基于到 2023 年 30.7% 的市场份额预测，我们预计 AWS 收入将增长至 815 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>AWS Forecasts</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>AWS预测</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2018</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2018</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2019</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2019</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2020</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2020</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2021F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2021F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2022F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2022F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2023F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2023F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>AWS Market Share</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>AWS 市场份额</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>32.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>32.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>32.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>32.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>31.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>31.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>31.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>31.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>31.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>30.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>30.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>AWS Revenues ($ bln)</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>AWS 收入（十亿美元）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.66</p><p><blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>35.03</p><p><blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>45.37</p><p><blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>54.58</p><p><blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>66.81</p><p><blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>81.52</p><p><blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>47.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>36.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>29.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>20.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22.4%</p><p><blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> <i>Source: Amazon, Canalys, Khaveen Investments</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源：亚马逊、Canalys、Khaveen Investments</i></blockquote></p><p> While AWS only makes up 11% of its total revenues, its superior margins of 29% compared to only 2.8% for the other company segments has AWS accounting for 59% of operating income in 2020 which highlights the significance of AWS to its bottom line.</p><p><blockquote>虽然 AWS 仅占其总收入的 11%，但其 29% 的利润率（而其他公司部门仅为 2.8%）使 AWS 在 2020 年占据了 59% 的经营利润，这凸显了 AWS 对其利润的重要性。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17ae44c90f44af56478935039edb4cc7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Amazon</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：亚马逊</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Antimonopoly and Data Privacy Fine Risk</b></p><p><blockquote><b>反垄断与数据隐私罚款风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Amazon has been&nbsp;involved&nbsp;in allegations of the company's approach to unfairly attain data and information from third-party sellers, stated by the Democrats' report with the company's e-commerce market share around 40% in the US. With the reliance of sellers on Amazon's sales channel, Amazon can charge sellers exceptional fees and further penalizing sellers for lowering their prices on other sites. Also, a bipartisan group of House lawmakers is pushing big tech including Amazon for anoverhaulof their business practices under an expansive set of antitrust reforms that would make it harder for dominant platforms to complete mergers and prohibit them from owning businesses that present clear conflicts of interest.</p><p><blockquote>民主党报告称，亚马逊一直被指控不公平地从第三方卖家获取数据和信息，该公司在美国的电子商务市场份额约为 40%。随着卖家对亚马逊销售渠道的依赖，亚马逊可以向卖家收取特殊费用，并进一步惩罚卖家在其他网站上降低价格的行为。此外，一个由两党众议院议员组成的小组正在推动包括亚马逊在内的大型科技公司根据一系列广泛的反垄断改革对其商业行为进行彻底改革，这将使占主导地位的平台更难完成合并，并禁止它们拥有存在明显利益冲突的业务。</blockquote></p><p> Whereas in the&nbsp;European Union, Amazon has been hit with the largest GDPR fine to date. The EU is moving beyond data breaches and zeroing in on data practices. Amazon faced a $888 million fine from violating the bloc's data protection rules. Amazon has been accused to violate the EU's General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). GDPR allows forfinesof up to 4% of Amazon's revenue, which the released number indicated around 4.2% of Amazon's $21.3 billion income in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>而在欧盟，亚马逊受到了迄今为止最大的GDPR罚款。欧盟正在超越数据泄露，专注于数据实践。亚马逊因违反欧盟数据保护规则而面临 8.88 亿美元的罚款。亚马逊被指控违反欧盟通用数据保护条例（GDPR）。GDPR 允许对亚马逊收入处以高达 4% 的罚款，公布的数字显示，这约占亚马逊 2020 年 213 亿美元收入的 4.2%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> The company has had average revenue growth of 29.4% in the past 5 years with an average gross and net margin of 38.6% and 3.5% respectively. The strength of the company is its rising margins as its net margins have risen due to the superior growth of its cloud segment which commands higher margins. The AWS segment has a high operating margin of 29.6% versus 2.8% for the remaining business segments.</p><p><blockquote>该公司过去5年的平均收入增长率为29.4%，平均毛利率和净利润率分别为38.6%和3.5%。该公司的优势在于其不断上升的利润率，因为其云业务的出色增长导致其净利润率上升，而云业务的利润率更高。AWS 部门的营业利润率高达 29.6%，而其余业务部门的营业利润率为 2.8%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a075f1644a849d94c77b8707596cf501\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：亚马逊、Khaveen Investments</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> More importantly, the company has decent and imposing cash-generating abilities with an average FCF margin of 3.01% in the past 5 years. In 2017, its FCF margin dipped due to the&nbsp;acquisition&nbsp;of Whole Foods for $13.7 bln. The strength of its cash flows is the rising margins as its AWS business which is more profitable exhibits a higher growth than other segments.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，该公司拥有不错且令人信服的现金产生能力，过去 5 年平均自由现金流利润率为 3.01%。2017年，由于以137亿美元收购全食超市，其自由现金流利润率下降。其现金流的优势在于不断上升的利润率，因为其利润更高的 AWS 业务比其他部门表现出更高的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78710672b48942ad15fa6ecdd9fffaf9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：亚马逊、Khaveen Investments</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The company's balance sheet strength is its strong ability to meet its debt obligations. It has a net debt of $113 bln in 2020 with an EBITDA/interest coverage ratio of 44x in 2020. Its ratio has steadily increased in the past 5 years from 32x as it grew its profitability with the superior growth of AWS.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的资产负债表实力在于其履行债务义务的强大能力。该公司2020年的净债务为1130亿美元，2020年EBITDA/利息覆盖率为44倍。随着 AWS 的卓越增长，其盈利能力不断提高，其比率在过去 5 年中从 32 倍稳步增长。</blockquote></p><p> To value Amazon, we used a DCF valuation as the company has had positive free cash flows in the past. We got an industry average EV/EBITDA of 27.64x based on comparable companies as shown in the table below.</p><p><blockquote>为了对亚马逊进行估值，我们使用了 DCF 估值，因为该公司过去有正的自由现金流。基于可比公司，我们得到了27.64倍的行业平均EV/EBITDA，如下表所示。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>Company</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>公司</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>EV/EBITDA</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>EV/EBITDA</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Amazon</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>28.57x</p><p><blockquote><td>28.57倍</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Alibaba (BABA)</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>阿里巴巴-SW（巴巴）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>21.14x</p><p><blockquote><td>21.14倍</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Microsoft</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>微软</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.89x</p><p><blockquote><td>25.89倍</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Google</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>谷歌</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22.46x</p><p><blockquote><td>22.46倍</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Average</b></p><p><blockquote><tr><td><b>均值</b></td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>24.52x</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>24.52倍</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> <i>Source: SeekingAlpha</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：SeekingAlpha</i></blockquote></p><p> The revenue growth projections aresummarized below based on the revenue breakdown by its online stores, physical stores, retail third party seller services, subscription services, AWS and others. The online store projections are derived from its market share assumption on the forecasted growth of the e-commerce market while physical store sales are based on the retail sales growth rate forecast of 7.2% in 2021. Retail third-party seller services are derived from its share of third-party seller GMV of the total e-commerce market and an assumption of a % cut it earns as revenues from commissions and related fees. The AWS revenues are projected from the cloud market growth based on the rising data volumes forecasts. Other segments are based on its average 3-year growth rates. Beyond 2023, we tapered down our growth forecasts with a weighted CAGR of 14.2% of the e-commerce and cloud computing market through 2027 and tapering down from 12.3% in 2027 with an annual decrease of 2% per year until 2030 as we expect the e-commerce market to become more mature.</p><p><blockquote>收入增长预测根据其在线商店、实体店、零售第三方卖家服务、订阅服务、AWS 等的收入明细总结如下。网上商店的预测来自其对电子商务市场预测增长的市场份额假设，而实体店销售则基于2021年7.2%的零售销售增长率预测。零售第三方卖家服务来自其在整个电子商务市场的第三方卖家GMV中的份额，以及其从佣金和相关费用中获得的1%的收入的假设。根据不断增长的数据量预测，AWS 收入来自云市场的增长。其他分部基于其三年平均增长率。2023年之后，我们下调了增长预测，到2027年，电子商务和云计算市场的加权复合年增长率为14.2%，从2027年的12.3%下调，直到2030年每年下降2%，因为我们预计电子商务市场将变得更加成熟。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>Amazon Revenue Projections ($ bln)</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>亚马逊收入预测（十亿美元）</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2018</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2018</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2019</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2019</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2020</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2020</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2021F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2021F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2022F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2022F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2023F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2023F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Online stores</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>网上商店</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>122.99</p><p><blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>141.25</p><p><blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>197.35</p><p><blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>211.74</p><p><blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>244.02</p><p><blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>280.50</p><p><blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>13.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>14.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>39.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>7.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Physical stores</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>实体店</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>17.22</p><p><blockquote><td>17.22</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>17.19</p><p><blockquote><td>17.19</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>16.23</p><p><blockquote><td>16.23</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>17.40</p><p><blockquote><td>17.40</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>18.55</p><p><blockquote><td>18.55</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19.38</p><p><blockquote><td>19.38</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>196.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>196.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>-0.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>-0.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>-5.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>-5.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>7.20%</p><p><blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6.60%</p><p><blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.50%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Retail third-party seller services</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>42.75</p><p><blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>53.76</p><p><blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>80.46</p><p><blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>97.37</p><p><blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>123.25</p><p><blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>155.61</p><p><blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>34.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>49.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>21.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>26.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>26.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Subscription services</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>订阅服务</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>14.17</p><p><blockquote><td>14.17</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19.21</p><p><blockquote><td>19.21</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.21</p><p><blockquote><td>25.21</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>34.67</p><p><blockquote><td>34.67</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>47.68</p><p><blockquote><td>47.68</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>65.58</p><p><blockquote><td>65.58</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>45.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>35.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>35.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>31.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>37.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>37.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>37.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>AWS</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>AWS</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.66</p><p><blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>35.03</p><p><blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>45.37</p><p><blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>54.58</p><p><blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>66.81</p><p><blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>81.52</p><p><blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>47.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>36.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>29.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>20.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22.4%</p><p><blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Other</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>其他的</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>10.11</p><p><blockquote><td>10.11</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>14.09</p><p><blockquote><td>14.09</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>21.45</p><p><blockquote><td>21.45</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>31.27</p><p><blockquote><td>31.27</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>45.60</p><p><blockquote><td>45.60</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>66.48</p><p><blockquote><td>66.48</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>117.4%</p><p><blockquote><td>117.4%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>39.4%</p><p><blockquote><td>39.4%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>52.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>52.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>45.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></p><p></td>    <td>45.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>45.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Total</b></p><p><blockquote><tr><td><b>总的</b></td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>232.9</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>232.9</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>280.53</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>280.53</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>386.07</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>386.07</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>447.0</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>447.0</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>545.9</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>545.9</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>669.1</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>669.1</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Total Growth %</b></p><p><blockquote><tr><td><b>总增长%</b></td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>30.9%</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>30.9%</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>20.5%</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>20.5%</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>37.6%</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>37.6%</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>15.8%</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>15.8%</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>22.1%</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>22.1%</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>22.6%</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>22.6%</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> <i>Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源：亚马逊、Khaveen Investments</i></blockquote></p><p> Based on a discount rate of 12.7% (company's WACC), our model shows an upside of 36.9%.</p><p><blockquote>基于 12.7% 的贴现率（公司的 WACC），我们的模型显示上涨空间为 36.9%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74c5d7c65d544d533d2e87bb62270fb1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Khaveen Investments</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：卡文投资</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Verdict</b></p><p><blockquote><b>裁决</b></blockquote></p><p> In conclusion, weanalyzed the company's key growth drivers namely the online retail, third-party seller services and AWS. While the accelerated growth eventually winds down, its growth outlook remains highly attractive as an established and dominant market leader in e-commerce. The share of e-commerce sales as a % of total retail sales is forecasted to keep marching higher with the shift of consumers buyingbehavior towards e-commerce with a forecasted rate of 22% by 2023. The company's Prime member provides it with a loyal customer base roughly half of the US population. Moreover, another key strength is its vast logistics and shipping network and Amazon FBA seeing the continued rise of third-party sellers on its online marketplace. Finally, AWS remains the clear market leader in the foreseeable future with close relationships with large corporate clients and continuous commitment by management to cater to the growing infrastructure needs of the segment. Thus, despite the expected normalizing growth in 2021, we believe that its outlook continued to be buoyed by the rising e-commerce and cloud computing market and revised our growth rate projections to 15.8% in 2021 followed by 22% in 2020. Overall, we rate the stock as a<i>Buy</i>with a price target of<i>$4,363.96.</i></p><p><blockquote>总之，我们分析了公司的主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方卖家服务和 AWS。虽然加速增长最终会结束，但作为电子商务领域的老牌市场领导者，其增长前景仍然极具吸引力。随着消费者购买行为向电子商务的转变，预计到 2023 年，电子商务销售额占零售总额的百分比将继续上升，预计这一比例将达到 22%。该公司的主要会员为其提供了大约一半美国人口的忠实客户群。此外，另一个关键优势是其庞大的物流和航运网络，亚马逊FBA看到其在线市场上第三方卖家的持续增长。最后，在可预见的未来，AWS 仍然是明显的市场领导者，与大型企业客户保持着密切的关系，并且管理层不断致力于满足该领域不断增长的基础设施需求。因此，尽管预期2021年增长将恢复正常，但我们相信其前景将继续受到不断增长的电子商务和云计算市场的提振，并将2021年的增长率预测修订为15.8%，2020年为22%。总体而言，我们将该股评级为<i>购买</i>目标价为<i>$4,363.96.</i></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon: Stock Still Attractive With Shift Towards E-Commerce And Cloud Growth<blockquote>亚马逊：随着转向电子商务和云增长，股票仍然具有吸引力</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon: Stock Still Attractive With Shift Towards E-Commerce And Cloud Growth<blockquote>亚马逊：随着转向电子商务和云增长，股票仍然具有吸引力</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-08 11:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth rate forecast to 15.8%.</li>  <li>While growth is moderating following a stellar year with robust activity, the company remains poised to benefit from the e-commerce shift with a forecast penetration rate of 22% of retail.</li>  <li>AWS is expected to remain as the number 1 market leader for the foreseeable future.</li>  <li>We revised our valuation using DCF analysis to obtain a new price target of $4,303,18 from $3,358.73.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2ca0bbeb0cb7be66a257f4e9d5f5fa1\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>4kodiak/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>公司2020年的收入增长超出了我们的预期，我们将其增长率预测修正为15.8%。</li><li>尽管在经历了强劲活动的辉煌一年后，增长正在放缓，但该公司仍准备从电子商务转变中受益，预计零售渗透率为 22%。</li><li>在可预见的未来，AWS 预计仍将是第一大市场领导者。</li><li>我们使用 DCF 分析修改了估值，从 3,358.73 美元获得了 4,303,18 美元的新目标价。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>4kodiak/iStock 未通过 Getty Images 发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Since our previous&nbsp;coverage, Amazon Inc.'s (AMZN) stock has risen by 26% and exceeded our revenue growth expectations of 24.5% and finished 2020 up by 37.6% on exceptional growth of its online retail business growing by 40% to nearly $200 bln and third-party services at $80bln. In this analysis, we re-examine its key growth drivers namely online retail, third party services and AWS.</p><p><blockquote>自我们之前的报道以来，亚马逊公司 (AMZN) 的股价已上涨 26%，超过了我们 24.5% 的收入增长预期，并在 2020 年底上涨了 37.6%，原因是其在线零售业务增长了 40%，达到近 2000 亿美元，第三方服务为 800 亿美元。在本分析中，我们重新审视了其主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方服务和 AWS。</blockquote></p><p> Despite the softness in Q2 of its online store sales growth of 13% and soft Q3&nbsp;guidance&nbsp;of 13% YoY at the midpoint, indicating a sign of normalizing growth, the secular growth outlook of the e-commerce market remains attractive from the continued shift towards online retail which Amazon has an established market position. As more consumers shift their purchasing behavior online, the share of e-commerce is forecasted to reach 22% by 2023 from 18% in 2020. We believe that Amazon's well-established market position with a massive Prime membership base as loyal customers and solid logistics and shipping network providing it with an advantage as seen with the rise of its e-commerce marketplace with third-party sellers. Moreover, its cloud business is expected to remain the market leader of the cloud infrastructure market for the foreseeable future with continued commitment towards growth and underpinned by rising data volumes.</p><p><blockquote>尽管第二季度在线商店销售额增长 13%，第三季度中点同比增长 13%，表明增长正常化的迹象，但由于亚马逊继续转向在线零售，电子商务市场的长期增长前景仍然具有吸引力，亚马逊在在线零售方面拥有既定的市场地位。随着越来越多的消费者将购买行为转移到网上，预计到 2023 年，电子商务的份额将从 2020 年的 18% 达到 22%。我们相信，亚马逊稳固的市场地位、庞大的 Prime 会员基础（作为忠实客户）以及稳固的物流和运输网络为其提供了优势，这一点从其电子商务市场与第三方卖家的崛起中可见一斑。此外，在可预见的未来，其云业务预计仍将是云基础设施市场的市场领导者，并将继续致力于增长，并以不断增长的数据量为支撑。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a78658eabc40ec60c6713019d6f800c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Amazon</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：亚马逊</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>E-commerce Sales Outlook Still Attractive Despite Normalizing Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>尽管增长正常化，电子商务销售前景仍然有吸引力</b></blockquote></p><p> Amazon's online store&nbsp;sales&nbsp;have surged 40% in 2020 from 14.8% in the prior year as it benefitted from the prolonged lockdowns and restrictions on physical retailers which saw the accelerated shift towards e-commerce adoption. However, despite the slowdown in its online store growth in Q2 2021 of 13% YoY compared to 41% in Q1, we believe that the company is poised to continue reaping the secular tailwinds of the rising e-commerce adoption.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊的在线商店销售额在2020年从上一年的14.8%飙升了40%，因为它受益于对实体零售商的长期封锁和限制，这加速了向电子商务的转变。然而，尽管 2021 年第二季度其在线商店增长同比放缓 13%，而第一季度为 41%，但我们相信该公司已准备好继续收获电子商务采用率上升的长期顺风。</blockquote></p><p> According to eMarketer, the share of e-commerce sales is forecasted to&nbsp;reach&nbsp;22% of global retail sales as consumers continue to shift towards online buying. Global retail sales are forecasted to bound back by 7.2% with the vaccination drives across the world and easing business restrictions. Thus, the e-commerce sales forecast is 10.2% in 2021 which represents a normalized growth from 27.6% in 2019 as the penetration rate surged to 18% from 14% in the past year.</p><p><blockquote>根据eMarketer的数据，随着消费者继续转向网上购物，电子商务销售的份额预计将达到全球零售额的22%。随着全球疫苗接种运动和商业限制的放松，全球零售额预计将回升7.2%。因此，由于渗透率从去年的14%飙升至18%，2021年的电子商务销售额预测为10.2%，较2019年的27.6%正常增长。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>Global E-Commerce Market ($ bln)</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>全球电子商务市场（十亿美元）</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2016</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2016</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2017</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2017</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2018</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2018</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2019</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2019</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2020</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2020</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2021F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2021F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2022F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2022F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2023F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2023F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Total Global Retail Sales ('a')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>全球零售总额（“A”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>21,453</p><p><blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22,904</p><p><blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>23,560</p><p><blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>24,780</p><p><blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>23,778</p><p><blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25,490</p><p><blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27,172</p><p><blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>28,395</p><p><blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>-4.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>7.20%</p><p><blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6.60%</p><p><blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.50%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1,845</p><p><blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2,382</p><p><blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2,982</p><p><blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>3,354</p><p><blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4,280</p><p><blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4,716</p><p><blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5,434</p><p><blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6,247</p><p><blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>29.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>12.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>10.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Penetration Rate ('c')</b></p><p><blockquote><tr><td><b>渗透率（'c'）</b></td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9%</p><p><blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>10%</p><p><blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>12%</p><p><blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>14%</p><p><blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>18%</p><p><blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19%</p><p><blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>20%</p><p><blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22%</p><p><blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> <i>* B = C x A</i></p><p><blockquote><i>* B = C x A</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Statista, eMarketer, Khaveen Investments</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源：Statista、eMarketer、Khaveen Investments</i></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Amazon's established market positioning is an added competitive strength of it to capitalize on the market growth. More specifically, it is hard to win over the company in the key criteria of price, choice and convenience. Evidently, the company's Prime membership continued to grow in 2020 by 15% to 142.5 mln members or roughly 43% of the US&nbsp;population. This indicates the strong attraction of loyal customers to the company providing it with a massive install base. Through Prime membership, consumers are also pushed to buy more to obtain various benefits.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊既定的市场定位是其利用市场增长的额外竞争实力。更具体地说，在价格、选择和便利性等关键标准上，很难赢得该公司的青睐。显然，该公司的主要会员在2020年继续增长15%，达到1.425亿会员，约占美国人口的43%。这表明忠实客户对该公司的强大吸引力，为其提供了庞大的安装基础。通过Prime会员，也促使消费者购买更多，以获得各种福利。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/125c2baa1b52e2787075210f05321e20\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"492\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Backlinko</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Backlinko</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In addition to Prime members, the company has been able to consistently&nbsp;attract&nbsp;sellers to its platform with 3.3 mln new sellers since 2017 or 3,718 per day. Currently, it has 9.7 mlnsellersworldwide across the US, UK, Germany, Japan, etc. Thus, the company has established itself as the dominant market leader and is far ahead of its next closest competitor in terms of e-commerce sales.</p><p><blockquote>除了Prime会员，该公司自2017年以来一直能够持续吸引卖家到其平台，有330万新卖家，即每天3718家。目前，它在美国、英国、德国、日本等地拥有970万卖家。因此，该公司已成为占主导地位的市场领导者，并在电子商务销售方面远远领先于其次最接近的竞争对手。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6272ba7ee8cf6f5aab477b8425f34923\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"355\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Marketing Charts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：营销图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Its market leadership is quite extensive across different product categories and markets as illustrated in the table below. For example, it accounts for Its consumer &amp; consumer electronics sales is the largest product category accounting for 50.2% of the products' total e-commerce sales in the US and 26.7% of total retail sales. This is followed by apparel &amp; accessories, books music &amp; video and furniture and home furnishings which is 32%, 83.2% and 34.2 % of e-commerce sales.</p><p><blockquote>如下表所示，其市场领导地位在不同的产品类别和市场中相当广泛。例如，其消费电子产品销售额是最大的产品类别，占美国电子商务产品总销售额的 50.2%，占零售总额的 26.7%。其次是服装和配饰、书籍、音乐和视频以及家具和家居用品，分别占电子商务销售额的32%、83.2%和34.2%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6765530fd408a02c75515a712af4087\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"725\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: eMarketer</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：eMarketer</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Among the product categories, the electronics category is the most popular among shoppers in the US with 44% of US shoppers having&nbsp;purchased&nbsp;electronics on Amazon. It also sells its own electronicdevicesincluding Echo smart speakers which account for 70% of the US market share followed by Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) and continues to develop the product with newer generations and software&nbsp;updates. In 2020, the company shipped over 38 mln smart speaker&nbsp;units&nbsp;and accounted for 28.3% of the global market share of shipments. We estimated its revenues from the sale of its smart speakers based on the average&nbsp;price&nbsp;of the Echo product family of $103 to be around $3.94 bln in revenues which is around 2% of its online store revenues. However, it also faces increasing competition especially from the Chinese manufacturers such as Baidu (BIDU) and Xiaomi (OTCPK:XIACF) which dominate the China market.</p><p><blockquote>在产品类别中，电子产品类别最受美国购物者欢迎，44%的美国购物者在亚马逊上购买过电子产品。它还销售自己的电子设备，包括Echo智能扬声器，占美国市场份额的70%，其次是谷歌（GOOG）和苹果（AAPL），并继续开发新一代产品和软件更新。2020年，该公司智能音箱出货量超过3800万台，占全球出货量市场份额的28.3%。根据 Echo 产品系列 103 美元的平均价格，我们估计其智能扬声器销售收入约为 39.4 亿美元，约占其在线商店收入的 2%。然而，它也面临着日益激烈的竞争，尤其是来自主导中国市场的百度（BIDU）和小米（OTCPK：XIACF）等中国制造商的竞争。</blockquote></p><p> All in all, the company has a massive product breadth of 12 mln&nbsp;products&nbsp;excluding books, media, wine and services and with the growing seller base, we expect this product breadth to continue to be expanded and provide customers unique value proposition with product variety.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，该公司拥有1200万种产品，不包括书籍、媒体、葡萄酒和服务，随着卖家基础的增长，我们预计这一产品范围将继续扩大，并通过产品种类为客户提供独特的价值主张。</blockquote></p><p> Thus, we expect its solid market dominance with an ecosystem of an established customer base and loyal Prime members and a large seller base with extensive market leadership across various key product categories with a broad product breadth to support its long-term growth. We projected its online store growth based on our expectation of its market share at 4.5% based on a 5-year average on the global e-commerce sales.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们预计其拥有稳固的市场主导地位，拥有由已建立的客户群和忠诚的 Prime 会员组成的生态系统，以及在各种关键产品类别中拥有广泛市场领导地位的大型卖家基础，产品范围广泛，以支持其长期增长。我们预测其在线商店的增长基于我们对其市场份额的预期，基于全球电子商务销售额的 5 年平均水平，为 4.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>Amazon Online Stores ($ bln)</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>亚马逊在线商店（十亿美元）</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2016</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2016</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2017</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2017</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2018</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2018</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2019</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2019</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2020</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2020</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2021F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2021F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2022F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2022F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2023F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2023F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Total Retail Sales ('a')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>零售总额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>21,453</p><p><blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22,904</p><p><blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>23,560</p><p><blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>24,780</p><p><blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>23,778</p><p><blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25,490</p><p><blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27,172</p><p><blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>28,395</p><p><blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>-4.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>7.20%</p><p><blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6.60%</p><p><blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.50%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1,845</p><p><blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2,382</p><p><blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2,982</p><p><blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>3,354</p><p><blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4,280</p><p><blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4,716</p><p><blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5,434</p><p><blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6,247</p><p><blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>29.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>12.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>10.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Penetration Rate ('c')</b></p><p><blockquote><tr><td><b>渗透率（'c'）</b></td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9%</p><p><blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></p><p></p><p></td>    <td>10%</p><p><blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>12%</p><p><blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>14%</p><p><blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>18%</p><p><blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19%</p><p><blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>20%</p><p><blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22%</p><p><blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>16.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>16.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>20.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>20.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>17.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>17.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>11.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>11.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>32.4%</p><p><blockquote><td>32.4%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>2.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>8.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>10.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>10.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Amazon Online Stores Revenues ('d')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店收入（“d”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>91.43</p><p><blockquote><td>91.43</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>108.35</p><p><blockquote><td>108.35</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>122.99</p><p><blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>141.25</p><p><blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>197.35</p><p><blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>211.74</p><p><blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>244.02</p><p><blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>280.50</p><p><blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>18.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>18.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>13.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>14.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>39.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>7.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Amazon Online Stores Market Share ('e')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店市场份额（“e”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>5.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> <i>* B = A x C</i></p><p><blockquote><i>* B = A x C</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>*D = B x E</i></p><p><blockquote><i>*D = B x E</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen Investments</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Rise of Third-party Seller Services</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第三方卖家服务的兴起</b></blockquote></p><p> Another major advantage of the company is its logistics and shipping operations, which has become an impenetrable moat that few other companies will ever have the resources or ability to match, with Amazon partnering with most major delivery providers in the country. By leveraging its robust network, it offers programs to enable sellers to sell their products through its marketplace and fulfill orders through the company.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的另一个主要优势是其物流和航运业务，这已经成为一条坚不可摧的护城河，很少有其他公司有资源或能力与之匹敌，亚马逊与该国大多数主要的送货提供商都有合作。通过利用其强大的网络，它提供了使卖家能够通过其市场销售产品并通过公司履行订单的计划。</blockquote></p><p> With Fulfillment by Amazon ('FBA'), third party sellersstore&nbsp;products in Amazon's fulfillment centers, and it picks, packs, ships, and provide customer service for these products. Amazon is not the seller but earns commissions and related fulfillment and shipping fees including inventory management, payment processing, shipment tracking and reporting from the arrangements from its third-party sellers who are largely comprised of small- and medium-sized businesses.</p><p><blockquote>通过亚马逊履行（“FBA”），第三方卖家在亚马逊的履行中心存储产品，并为这些产品挑选、包装、运输和提供客户服务。亚马逊不是卖家，但从主要由中小型企业组成的第三方卖家的安排中赚取佣金和相关的履行和运输费用，包括库存管理、支付处理、运输跟踪和报告。</blockquote></p><p> Selling on Amazon as a third-party seller is an increasingly popular option for sellers. It ultimately&nbsp;provides&nbsp;more flexibility and control, a stronger brand presence, and better data access. Over the past years, the rise of third-party sellers on Amazon is seen with the rising&nbsp;share&nbsp;of third-party sales as a % of its gross merchandise sales at 62% of total sales.</p><p><blockquote>作为第三方卖家在亚马逊上销售是卖家越来越受欢迎的选择。它最终提供了更多的灵活性和控制、更强的品牌形象和更好的数据访问。在过去的几年里，亚马逊上第三方卖家的崛起，第三方销售额占其商品总销售额的百分比不断上升，占总销售额的62%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed0a2a75af197d4bf9dca92caab27d6c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"539\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: FourWeekMBA</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：四周MBA</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The chart below further illustrates Amazon's large network of logistics and shipping. Its fulfillment center network is one of several ways it&nbsp;enhances&nbsp;its logistics and shipping process taking on FedEx and UPS and has been ramping up efforts to launch its delivery network as well with growing fleets of airplanes, drones and vans. Amazon's own logistics business&nbsp;delivered&nbsp;1.9 bln packages in the US.</p><p><blockquote>下图进一步说明了亚马逊庞大的物流和航运网络。其履行中心网络是其增强物流和运输流程的几种方式之一，与联邦快递和 UPS 竞争，并且一直在加大力度推出其送货网络，以及不断增长的飞机、无人机和货车机队。亚马逊自己的物流业务在美国递送了19亿个包裹。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5732f32df08132a67f1f9ead2376b2fb\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"233\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: WebFX</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：WebFX</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Moreover, its wide logistics and shipping coverage with over 100 active warehouses across the US with the highest number of facilities in California, Texas and New Jersey. Additionally, it is expanding heavily in the south with the highest number of planned warehouses. For example, the upcoming&nbsp;opening&nbsp;of a 1 million-square-foot fulfillmentcenter in Missouri in 2021 where employees will pack and ship larger-sized customer items like patio furniture, outdoor equipment or rugs. In 2020, it&nbsp;announced&nbsp;plans for 7 new fulfillmentcenters including a 600,000-square-foot facility in Florida, an 855,000-square foot facility in Tennessee and a 625,000square-foot fulfillment center in Texas.</p><p><blockquote>此外，其广泛的物流和运输覆盖范围，在美国拥有100多个活跃仓库，其中加利福尼亚州、德克萨斯州和新泽西州的设施数量最多。此外，它正在南部大力扩张，规划仓库数量最多。例如，密苏里州即将于2021年开设一个100万平方英尺的履行中心，员工将在那里包装和运输较大尺寸的客户物品，如庭院家具、户外设备或地毯。2020 年，该公司宣布了 7 个新履行中心的计划，包括佛罗里达州 600,000 平方英尺的设施、田纳西州 855,000 平方英尺的设施和德克萨斯州 625,000 平方英尺的履行中心。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d45f3a6df0a41b23e4f1d8fe2edb77d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: CNBC</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：CNBC</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Overall, these are among the factors which lead to the company's strength from its wide logistics network in terms of shipping speed. The company is highly popular for its speedy shipping and even has&nbsp;free&nbsp;Two-Day and even Same Day Shipping Programs for Prime members. Based on the survey below, the majority or 80% cited fast and free shipping as the major reason for choosing Amazon. We believe that the company's planned expansion would continue to enhance its logistics network and maintain its popularity among customers.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，这些都是导致该公司凭借其广泛的物流网络在运输速度方面实力的因素。该公司因其快速运输而非常受欢迎，甚至为Prime会员提供免费的两天甚至当天运输计划。根据下面的调查，大多数或80%的人认为快速和免费送货是选择亚马逊的主要原因。我们相信，本公司的扩张计划将继续加强其物流网络，并维持其在客户中的受欢迎程度。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4143366dbcb762fad253420cdb1b5f1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"409\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Statista</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> We forecasted the company's retail third-party seller services revenues which consist of fulfillment service-related revenues derived from the sales from third-party sellers. Amazon's third-party gross merchandise sales are forecasted to increase its share of total retail e-commerce sales as a growth rate of 9% based on the past 5-year average with the rising popularity of third-party sales on its marketplace. Moreover, we also forecasted the share of revenues that Amazon earns to grow by 1% from 27.3% based on the 2-year average as Amazon continues to expand its fulfillment capabilities to cater to its third-party sellers. This trend is also believed to be significant for margin expansion of the company as gross margins third-party seller services isestimatedto be between 60% to 75% of sales which is lower than AWS at 80% but still higher than the company's overall gross margin of 37% due to high costs tied up with the cost of sales which&nbsp;represents&nbsp;60% of its total sales.</p><p><blockquote>我们预测了公司的零售第三方卖家服务收入，其中包括来自第三方卖家销售的履行服务相关收入。随着第三方销售在其市场上越来越受欢迎，基于过去5年的平均水平，亚马逊的第三方商品总销售额预计将以9%的增长率增加其在零售电子商务总销售额中的份额。此外，随着亚马逊继续扩大其履行能力以迎合第三方卖家，我们还预测亚马逊的收入份额将从两年平均水平的 27.3% 增长 1%。这一趋势也被认为对公司的利润率扩张具有重要意义，因为第三方卖家服务的毛利率估计在销售额的 60% 至 75% 之间，低于 AWS 的 80%，但仍高于公司的整体毛利率 37% 由于高成本与占总销售额 60% 的销售成本相关。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>Third-Party Seller Services Revenues ($ bln)</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>第三方卖家服务收入（十亿美元）</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2016</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2016</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2017</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2017</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2018</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2018</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2019</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2019</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2020</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2020</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2021F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2021F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2022F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2022F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2023F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2023F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Global Retail E-commerce Sales ('a')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>全球零售电子商务销售额（“A”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1,845</p><p><blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2,382</p><p><blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2,982</p><p><blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>3,354</p><p><blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4,280</p><p><blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4,716</p><p><blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5,434</p><p><blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6,247</p><p><blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>29.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>12.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>10.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Amazon Third Party Market Share ('b')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊第三方市场份额（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>5.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>5.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5.4%</p><p><blockquote><td>5.4%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>6.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>6.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>7.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>7.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>8.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>8.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>8.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>21%</p><p><blockquote><td>21%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>-2%</p><p><blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>-2%</p><p><blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>11%</p><p><blockquote><td>11%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>16%</p><p><blockquote><td>16%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9%</p><p><blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9%</p><p><blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9%</p><p><blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Third-party (Amazon marketplace) GMV ('c')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>第三方（亚马逊市场）GMV（'c'）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>103</p><p><blockquote><td>103</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>130</p><p><blockquote><td>130</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>160</p><p><blockquote><td>160</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>200</p><p><blockquote><td>200</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>295</p><p><blockquote><td>295</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>353</p><p><blockquote><td>353</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>443</p><p><blockquote><td>443</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>553</p><p><blockquote><td>553</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>26.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>26.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>23.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>23.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>47.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>47.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>19.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>% Of Revenues ('d')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>占收入百分比（'d'）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>22.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>24.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>24.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>26.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>26.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>26.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>26.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>27.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>27.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>28.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>28.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>9.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>9.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>0.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>0.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>1.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Retail third-party seller services revenues ('e')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务收入（「e」）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22.99</p><p><blockquote><td>22.99</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>31.88</p><p><blockquote><td>31.88</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>42.75</p><p><blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>53.76</p><p><blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>80.46</p><p><blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>97.37</p><p><blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>123.25</p><p><blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>155.61</p><p><blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>38.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>38.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>34.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>49.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>21.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>26.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>26.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> <i>*C = A x B</i></p><p><blockquote><i>*C = A x B</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>*E = C x D</i></p><p><blockquote><i>*E = C x D</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Amazon, Statista, Khaveen Investments</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源：亚马逊、Statista、Khaveen Investments</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>AWS Growth by Data Volume Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AWS 通过数据量增长实现增长</b></blockquote></p><p> Another key area of growth of the company is cloud computing with notable largeclientssuch as Netflix (NFLX), Verizon (VZ), Capital One (COF), McDonald's (MCD). AWS revenues grew strongly at 29.5% in 2020 with a market share of 31.8% of the cloud infrastructuremarket. Since its launch nearly 2 decades ago, it has grown to become the market leader for years and looks set to maintain the status quo for the foreseeable future despite rising competition especially from Microsoft (MSFT) and Google gaining market share outpacing Amazon's growth.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的另一个关键增长领域是云计算，拥有 Netflix (NFLX)、Verizon (VZ)、Capital One (COF)、麦当劳 (MCD) 等著名大客户。2020年，AWS收入强劲增长29.5%，在云基础设施市场的市场份额为31.8%。自近20年前推出以来，它多年来已成长为市场领导者，尽管竞争日益激烈，尤其是来自微软（MSFT）和谷歌的市场份额超过了亚马逊的增长，但它似乎将在可预见的未来维持现状。</blockquote></p><p> The rapid growth of the cloud infrastructure market is underpinned by the rising volume of global data volume creation at aCAGRof 23% until 2025 as data volume is projected to grow to more than 180 zettabytes as the world becomes more data-driven with the rise of data analytics, 5G and IoT spurring the growth of data creation.</p><p><blockquote>云基础设施市场的快速增长是由aCAGRof全球数据量创建量的增长支撑的，到2025年将增长23%，因为随着数据分析的兴起，随着世界变得更加数据驱动，数据量预计将增长到180 zettabytes以上，5G和物联网刺激了数据创建的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d467bae68efe047fa8c695360d5b551c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen Investments</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We projected the growth of the cloud infrastructure market based on the forecasted growth of data volume at a 23%&nbsp;CAGR&nbsp;through 2025 at an average cloud infrastructure/data growth factor of 1.72.</p><p><blockquote>我们预测云基础设施市场的增长是基于到2025年数据量的预测复合年增长率为23%，平均云基础设施/数据增长系数为1.72。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd3a646de29cd8f5659eeaabcbf4831d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>* A = B x C Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>* a = B x C 资料来源：Statista、Khaveen Investments</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Thus, despite the plateauing market share of AWS as competitors like Microsoft outpaces its growth, we still believe in the massive opportunity in the cloud infrastructure market with the growing data volumes. Not to mention, the company has highlighted its commitment towards AWS with new client relationships such as major sports leagues around the world including National Hockey League, the PGA Tour, Formula 1 and the German Bundesliga. Furthermore, it also recently&nbsp;announced&nbsp;a relationship with Dish Network to build out cloud-based 5G infrastructure and would expand its data center footprint in Israel and the United Arab Emirates. It currently offers 80 availability zones across 25 geographic regions and plans to launch 15 more availability zones to support its cloud growth.</p><p><blockquote>因此，尽管随着微软等竞争对手的增长速度超过AWS的市场份额趋于稳定，但我们仍然相信随着数据量的增长，云基础设施市场存在巨大机遇。更不用说，该公司还通过新的客户关系强调了其对AWS的承诺，如世界各地的主要体育联盟，包括国家曲棍球联盟、PGA巡回赛、一级方程式赛车和德国德甲联赛。此外，它最近还宣布与Dish Network建立合作关系，建立基于云的5G基础设施，并将扩大其在以色列和阿拉伯联合酋长国的数据中心足迹。它目前在25个地理区域提供80个可用性区域，并计划再推出15个可用性区域，以支持其云的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ebc384fe7bf254090200574fd352254\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Canalys, Khaveen Investments</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：Canalys、Khaveen Investments</span></p></blockquote></p><p> All in all, we projected AWS's revenue growth based on our market share forecast assumptions that its market share leadership is slowly chipped away by fast-growing competitors notably Microsoft but still maintaining its market leadership backed by solid large client relationship leveraging AWS. Based on a forecasted market share of 30.7% by 2023, we expect AWS revenues to grow to $81.5 bln.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，我们预测 AWS 的收入增长是基于我们的市场份额预测假设，即其市场份额领先地位正在被快速增长的竞争对手（尤其是微软）慢慢蚕食，但在利用 AWS 的稳固大客户关系的支持下，仍保持其市场领先地位。基于到 2023 年 30.7% 的市场份额预测，我们预计 AWS 收入将增长至 815 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>AWS Forecasts</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>AWS预测</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2018</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2018</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2019</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2019</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2020</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2020</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2021F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2021F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2022F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2022F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2023F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2023F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>AWS Market Share</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>AWS 市场份额</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>32.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>32.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>32.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>32.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>31.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>31.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>31.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>31.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>31.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>30.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>30.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>AWS Revenues ($ bln)</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>AWS 收入（十亿美元）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.66</p><p><blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>35.03</p><p><blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>45.37</p><p><blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>54.58</p><p><blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>66.81</p><p><blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>81.52</p><p><blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>47.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>36.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>29.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>20.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22.4%</p><p><blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> <i>Source: Amazon, Canalys, Khaveen Investments</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源：亚马逊、Canalys、Khaveen Investments</i></blockquote></p><p> While AWS only makes up 11% of its total revenues, its superior margins of 29% compared to only 2.8% for the other company segments has AWS accounting for 59% of operating income in 2020 which highlights the significance of AWS to its bottom line.</p><p><blockquote>虽然 AWS 仅占其总收入的 11%，但其 29% 的利润率（而其他公司部门仅为 2.8%）使 AWS 在 2020 年占据了 59% 的经营利润，这凸显了 AWS 对其利润的重要性。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17ae44c90f44af56478935039edb4cc7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Amazon</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：亚马逊</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Antimonopoly and Data Privacy Fine Risk</b></p><p><blockquote><b>反垄断与数据隐私罚款风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Amazon has been&nbsp;involved&nbsp;in allegations of the company's approach to unfairly attain data and information from third-party sellers, stated by the Democrats' report with the company's e-commerce market share around 40% in the US. With the reliance of sellers on Amazon's sales channel, Amazon can charge sellers exceptional fees and further penalizing sellers for lowering their prices on other sites. Also, a bipartisan group of House lawmakers is pushing big tech including Amazon for anoverhaulof their business practices under an expansive set of antitrust reforms that would make it harder for dominant platforms to complete mergers and prohibit them from owning businesses that present clear conflicts of interest.</p><p><blockquote>民主党报告称，亚马逊一直被指控不公平地从第三方卖家获取数据和信息，该公司在美国的电子商务市场份额约为 40%。随着卖家对亚马逊销售渠道的依赖，亚马逊可以向卖家收取特殊费用，并进一步惩罚卖家在其他网站上降低价格的行为。此外，一个由两党众议院议员组成的小组正在推动包括亚马逊在内的大型科技公司根据一系列广泛的反垄断改革对其商业行为进行彻底改革，这将使占主导地位的平台更难完成合并，并禁止它们拥有存在明显利益冲突的业务。</blockquote></p><p> Whereas in the&nbsp;European Union, Amazon has been hit with the largest GDPR fine to date. The EU is moving beyond data breaches and zeroing in on data practices. Amazon faced a $888 million fine from violating the bloc's data protection rules. Amazon has been accused to violate the EU's General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). GDPR allows forfinesof up to 4% of Amazon's revenue, which the released number indicated around 4.2% of Amazon's $21.3 billion income in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>而在欧盟，亚马逊受到了迄今为止最大的GDPR罚款。欧盟正在超越数据泄露，专注于数据实践。亚马逊因违反欧盟数据保护规则而面临 8.88 亿美元的罚款。亚马逊被指控违反欧盟通用数据保护条例（GDPR）。GDPR 允许对亚马逊收入处以高达 4% 的罚款，公布的数字显示，这约占亚马逊 2020 年 213 亿美元收入的 4.2%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> The company has had average revenue growth of 29.4% in the past 5 years with an average gross and net margin of 38.6% and 3.5% respectively. The strength of the company is its rising margins as its net margins have risen due to the superior growth of its cloud segment which commands higher margins. The AWS segment has a high operating margin of 29.6% versus 2.8% for the remaining business segments.</p><p><blockquote>该公司过去5年的平均收入增长率为29.4%，平均毛利率和净利润率分别为38.6%和3.5%。该公司的优势在于其不断上升的利润率，因为其云业务的出色增长导致其净利润率上升，而云业务的利润率更高。AWS 部门的营业利润率高达 29.6%，而其余业务部门的营业利润率为 2.8%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a075f1644a849d94c77b8707596cf501\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：亚马逊、Khaveen Investments</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> More importantly, the company has decent and imposing cash-generating abilities with an average FCF margin of 3.01% in the past 5 years. In 2017, its FCF margin dipped due to the&nbsp;acquisition&nbsp;of Whole Foods for $13.7 bln. The strength of its cash flows is the rising margins as its AWS business which is more profitable exhibits a higher growth than other segments.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，该公司拥有不错且令人信服的现金产生能力，过去 5 年平均自由现金流利润率为 3.01%。2017年，由于以137亿美元收购全食超市，其自由现金流利润率下降。其现金流的优势在于不断上升的利润率，因为其利润更高的 AWS 业务比其他部门表现出更高的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78710672b48942ad15fa6ecdd9fffaf9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：亚马逊、Khaveen Investments</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The company's balance sheet strength is its strong ability to meet its debt obligations. It has a net debt of $113 bln in 2020 with an EBITDA/interest coverage ratio of 44x in 2020. Its ratio has steadily increased in the past 5 years from 32x as it grew its profitability with the superior growth of AWS.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的资产负债表实力在于其履行债务义务的强大能力。该公司2020年的净债务为1130亿美元，2020年EBITDA/利息覆盖率为44倍。随着 AWS 的卓越增长，其盈利能力不断提高，其比率在过去 5 年中从 32 倍稳步增长。</blockquote></p><p> To value Amazon, we used a DCF valuation as the company has had positive free cash flows in the past. We got an industry average EV/EBITDA of 27.64x based on comparable companies as shown in the table below.</p><p><blockquote>为了对亚马逊进行估值，我们使用了 DCF 估值，因为该公司过去有正的自由现金流。基于可比公司，我们得到了27.64倍的行业平均EV/EBITDA，如下表所示。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>Company</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>公司</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>EV/EBITDA</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>EV/EBITDA</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Amazon</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>28.57x</p><p><blockquote><td>28.57倍</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Alibaba (BABA)</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>阿里巴巴-SW（巴巴）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>21.14x</p><p><blockquote><td>21.14倍</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Microsoft</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>微软</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.89x</p><p><blockquote><td>25.89倍</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Google</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>谷歌</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22.46x</p><p><blockquote><td>22.46倍</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Average</b></p><p><blockquote><tr><td><b>均值</b></td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>24.52x</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>24.52倍</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> <i>Source: SeekingAlpha</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：SeekingAlpha</i></blockquote></p><p> The revenue growth projections aresummarized below based on the revenue breakdown by its online stores, physical stores, retail third party seller services, subscription services, AWS and others. The online store projections are derived from its market share assumption on the forecasted growth of the e-commerce market while physical store sales are based on the retail sales growth rate forecast of 7.2% in 2021. Retail third-party seller services are derived from its share of third-party seller GMV of the total e-commerce market and an assumption of a % cut it earns as revenues from commissions and related fees. The AWS revenues are projected from the cloud market growth based on the rising data volumes forecasts. Other segments are based on its average 3-year growth rates. Beyond 2023, we tapered down our growth forecasts with a weighted CAGR of 14.2% of the e-commerce and cloud computing market through 2027 and tapering down from 12.3% in 2027 with an annual decrease of 2% per year until 2030 as we expect the e-commerce market to become more mature.</p><p><blockquote>收入增长预测根据其在线商店、实体店、零售第三方卖家服务、订阅服务、AWS 等的收入明细总结如下。网上商店的预测来自其对电子商务市场预测增长的市场份额假设，而实体店销售则基于2021年7.2%的零售销售增长率预测。零售第三方卖家服务来自其在整个电子商务市场的第三方卖家GMV中的份额，以及其从佣金和相关费用中获得的1%的收入的假设。根据不断增长的数据量预测，AWS 收入来自云市场的增长。其他分部基于其三年平均增长率。2023年之后，我们下调了增长预测，到2027年，电子商务和云计算市场的加权复合年增长率为14.2%，从2027年的12.3%下调，直到2030年每年下降2%，因为我们预计电子商务市场将变得更加成熟。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>Amazon Revenue Projections ($ bln)</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>亚马逊收入预测（十亿美元）</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2018</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2018</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2019</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2019</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2020</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2020</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2021F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2021F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2022F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2022F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2023F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2023F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Online stores</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>网上商店</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>122.99</p><p><blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>141.25</p><p><blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>197.35</p><p><blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>211.74</p><p><blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>244.02</p><p><blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>280.50</p><p><blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>13.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>14.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>39.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>7.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Physical stores</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>实体店</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>17.22</p><p><blockquote><td>17.22</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>17.19</p><p><blockquote><td>17.19</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>16.23</p><p><blockquote><td>16.23</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>17.40</p><p><blockquote><td>17.40</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>18.55</p><p><blockquote><td>18.55</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19.38</p><p><blockquote><td>19.38</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>196.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>196.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>-0.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>-0.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>-5.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>-5.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>7.20%</p><p><blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6.60%</p><p><blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.50%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Retail third-party seller services</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>42.75</p><p><blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>53.76</p><p><blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>80.46</p><p><blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>97.37</p><p><blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>123.25</p><p><blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>155.61</p><p><blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>34.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>49.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>21.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>26.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>26.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Subscription services</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>订阅服务</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>14.17</p><p><blockquote><td>14.17</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19.21</p><p><blockquote><td>19.21</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.21</p><p><blockquote><td>25.21</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>34.67</p><p><blockquote><td>34.67</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>47.68</p><p><blockquote><td>47.68</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>65.58</p><p><blockquote><td>65.58</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>45.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>35.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>35.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>31.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>37.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>37.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>37.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>AWS</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>AWS</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.66</p><p><blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>35.03</p><p><blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>45.37</p><p><blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>54.58</p><p><blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>66.81</p><p><blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>81.52</p><p><blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>47.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>36.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>29.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>20.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22.4%</p><p><blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Other</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>其他的</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>10.11</p><p><blockquote><td>10.11</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>14.09</p><p><blockquote><td>14.09</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>21.45</p><p><blockquote><td>21.45</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>31.27</p><p><blockquote><td>31.27</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>45.60</p><p><blockquote><td>45.60</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>66.48</p><p><blockquote><td>66.48</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>117.4%</p><p><blockquote><td>117.4%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>39.4%</p><p><blockquote><td>39.4%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>52.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>52.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>45.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></p><p></td>    <td>45.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>45.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Total</b></p><p><blockquote><tr><td><b>总的</b></td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>232.9</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>232.9</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>280.53</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>280.53</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>386.07</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>386.07</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>447.0</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>447.0</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>545.9</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>545.9</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>669.1</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>669.1</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Total Growth %</b></p><p><blockquote><tr><td><b>总增长%</b></td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>30.9%</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>30.9%</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>20.5%</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>20.5%</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>37.6%</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>37.6%</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>15.8%</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>15.8%</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>22.1%</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>22.1%</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>22.6%</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>22.6%</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> <i>Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源：亚马逊、Khaveen Investments</i></blockquote></p><p> Based on a discount rate of 12.7% (company's WACC), our model shows an upside of 36.9%.</p><p><blockquote>基于 12.7% 的贴现率（公司的 WACC），我们的模型显示上涨空间为 36.9%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74c5d7c65d544d533d2e87bb62270fb1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Khaveen Investments</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：卡文投资</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Verdict</b></p><p><blockquote><b>裁决</b></blockquote></p><p> In conclusion, weanalyzed the company's key growth drivers namely the online retail, third-party seller services and AWS. While the accelerated growth eventually winds down, its growth outlook remains highly attractive as an established and dominant market leader in e-commerce. The share of e-commerce sales as a % of total retail sales is forecasted to keep marching higher with the shift of consumers buyingbehavior towards e-commerce with a forecasted rate of 22% by 2023. The company's Prime member provides it with a loyal customer base roughly half of the US population. Moreover, another key strength is its vast logistics and shipping network and Amazon FBA seeing the continued rise of third-party sellers on its online marketplace. Finally, AWS remains the clear market leader in the foreseeable future with close relationships with large corporate clients and continuous commitment by management to cater to the growing infrastructure needs of the segment. Thus, despite the expected normalizing growth in 2021, we believe that its outlook continued to be buoyed by the rising e-commerce and cloud computing market and revised our growth rate projections to 15.8% in 2021 followed by 22% in 2020. Overall, we rate the stock as a<i>Buy</i>with a price target of<i>$4,363.96.</i></p><p><blockquote>总之，我们分析了公司的主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方卖家服务和 AWS。虽然加速增长最终会结束，但作为电子商务领域的老牌市场领导者，其增长前景仍然极具吸引力。随着消费者购买行为向电子商务的转变，预计到 2023 年，电子商务销售额占零售总额的百分比将继续上升，预计这一比例将达到 22%。该公司的主要会员为其提供了大约一半美国人口的忠实客户群。此外，另一个关键优势是其庞大的物流和航运网络，亚马逊FBA看到其在线市场上第三方卖家的持续增长。最后，在可预见的未来，AWS 仍然是明显的市场领导者，与大型企业客户保持着密切的关系，并且管理层不断致力于满足该领域不断增长的基础设施需求。因此，尽管预期2021年增长将恢复正常，但我们相信其前景将继续受到不断增长的电子商务和云计算市场的提振，并将2021年的增长率预测修订为15.8%，2020年为22%。总体而言，我们将该股评级为<i>购买</i>目标价为<i>$4,363.96.</i></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453926-amazon-stock-still-attractive\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453926-amazon-stock-still-attractive","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143120804","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth rate forecast to 15.8%.\nWhile growth is moderating following a stellar year with robust activity, the company remains poised to benefit from the e-commerce shift with a forecast penetration rate of 22% of retail.\nAWS is expected to remain as the number 1 market leader for the foreseeable future.\nWe revised our valuation using DCF analysis to obtain a new price target of $4,303,18 from $3,358.73.\n\n4kodiak/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nSince our previous coverage, Amazon Inc.'s (AMZN) stock has risen by 26% and exceeded our revenue growth expectations of 24.5% and finished 2020 up by 37.6% on exceptional growth of its online retail business growing by 40% to nearly $200 bln and third-party services at $80bln. In this analysis, we re-examine its key growth drivers namely online retail, third party services and AWS.\nDespite the softness in Q2 of its online store sales growth of 13% and soft Q3 guidance of 13% YoY at the midpoint, indicating a sign of normalizing growth, the secular growth outlook of the e-commerce market remains attractive from the continued shift towards online retail which Amazon has an established market position. As more consumers shift their purchasing behavior online, the share of e-commerce is forecasted to reach 22% by 2023 from 18% in 2020. We believe that Amazon's well-established market position with a massive Prime membership base as loyal customers and solid logistics and shipping network providing it with an advantage as seen with the rise of its e-commerce marketplace with third-party sellers. Moreover, its cloud business is expected to remain the market leader of the cloud infrastructure market for the foreseeable future with continued commitment towards growth and underpinned by rising data volumes.\nSource: Amazon\nE-commerce Sales Outlook Still Attractive Despite Normalizing Growth\nAmazon's online store sales have surged 40% in 2020 from 14.8% in the prior year as it benefitted from the prolonged lockdowns and restrictions on physical retailers which saw the accelerated shift towards e-commerce adoption. However, despite the slowdown in its online store growth in Q2 2021 of 13% YoY compared to 41% in Q1, we believe that the company is poised to continue reaping the secular tailwinds of the rising e-commerce adoption.\nAccording to eMarketer, the share of e-commerce sales is forecasted to reach 22% of global retail sales as consumers continue to shift towards online buying. Global retail sales are forecasted to bound back by 7.2% with the vaccination drives across the world and easing business restrictions. Thus, the e-commerce sales forecast is 10.2% in 2021 which represents a normalized growth from 27.6% in 2019 as the penetration rate surged to 18% from 14% in the past year.\n\n\n\nGlobal E-Commerce Market ($ bln)\n2016\n2017\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nTotal Global Retail Sales ('a')\n21,453\n22,904\n23,560\n24,780\n23,778\n25,490\n27,172\n28,395\n\n\nGrowth %\n2.6%\n6.8%\n2.9%\n5.2%\n-4.0%\n7.20%\n6.60%\n4.50%\n\n\nRetail E-commerce Sales ('b')\n1,845\n2,382\n2,982\n3,354\n4,280\n4,716\n5,434\n6,247\n\n\nGrowth %\n19.2%\n29.1%\n25.2%\n12.5%\n27.6%\n10.2%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nPenetration Rate ('c')\n9%\n10%\n12%\n14%\n18%\n19%\n20%\n22%\n\n\n\n* B = C x A\nSource: Statista, eMarketer, Khaveen Investments\nAmazon's established market positioning is an added competitive strength of it to capitalize on the market growth. More specifically, it is hard to win over the company in the key criteria of price, choice and convenience. Evidently, the company's Prime membership continued to grow in 2020 by 15% to 142.5 mln members or roughly 43% of the US population. This indicates the strong attraction of loyal customers to the company providing it with a massive install base. Through Prime membership, consumers are also pushed to buy more to obtain various benefits.\nSource: Backlinko\nIn addition to Prime members, the company has been able to consistently attract sellers to its platform with 3.3 mln new sellers since 2017 or 3,718 per day. Currently, it has 9.7 mlnsellersworldwide across the US, UK, Germany, Japan, etc. Thus, the company has established itself as the dominant market leader and is far ahead of its next closest competitor in terms of e-commerce sales.\nSource: Marketing Charts\nIts market leadership is quite extensive across different product categories and markets as illustrated in the table below. For example, it accounts for Its consumer & consumer electronics sales is the largest product category accounting for 50.2% of the products' total e-commerce sales in the US and 26.7% of total retail sales. This is followed by apparel & accessories, books music & video and furniture and home furnishings which is 32%, 83.2% and 34.2 % of e-commerce sales.\nSource: eMarketer\nAmong the product categories, the electronics category is the most popular among shoppers in the US with 44% of US shoppers having purchased electronics on Amazon. It also sells its own electronicdevicesincluding Echo smart speakers which account for 70% of the US market share followed by Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) and continues to develop the product with newer generations and software updates. In 2020, the company shipped over 38 mln smart speaker units and accounted for 28.3% of the global market share of shipments. We estimated its revenues from the sale of its smart speakers based on the average price of the Echo product family of $103 to be around $3.94 bln in revenues which is around 2% of its online store revenues. However, it also faces increasing competition especially from the Chinese manufacturers such as Baidu (BIDU) and Xiaomi (OTCPK:XIACF) which dominate the China market.\nAll in all, the company has a massive product breadth of 12 mln products excluding books, media, wine and services and with the growing seller base, we expect this product breadth to continue to be expanded and provide customers unique value proposition with product variety.\nThus, we expect its solid market dominance with an ecosystem of an established customer base and loyal Prime members and a large seller base with extensive market leadership across various key product categories with a broad product breadth to support its long-term growth. We projected its online store growth based on our expectation of its market share at 4.5% based on a 5-year average on the global e-commerce sales.\n\n\n\nAmazon Online Stores ($ bln)\n2016\n2017\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nTotal Retail Sales ('a')\n21,453\n22,904\n23,560\n24,780\n23,778\n25,490\n27,172\n28,395\n\n\nGrowth %\n2.6%\n6.8%\n2.9%\n5.2%\n-4.0%\n7.20%\n6.60%\n4.50%\n\n\nRetail E-commerce Sales ('b')\n1,845\n2,382\n2,982\n3,354\n4,280\n4,716\n5,434\n6,247\n\n\nGrowth %\n19.2%\n29.1%\n25.2%\n12.5%\n27.6%\n10.2%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nPenetration Rate ('c')\n9%\n10%\n12%\n14%\n18%\n19%\n20%\n22%\n\n\nGrowth %\n16.2%\n20.9%\n17.3%\n11.5%\n32.4%\n2.8%\n8.1%\n10.0%\n\n\nAmazon Online Stores Revenues ('d')\n91.43\n108.35\n122.99\n141.25\n197.35\n211.74\n244.02\n280.50\n\n\nGrowth %\n18.5%\n13.5%\n14.8%\n39.7%\n7.3%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nAmazon Online Stores Market Share ('e')\n5.0%\n4.5%\n4.1%\n4.2%\n4.6%\n4.5%\n4.5%\n4.5%\n\n\n\n* B = A x C\n*D = B x E\nSource: Statista, Khaveen Investments\nThe Rise of Third-party Seller Services\nAnother major advantage of the company is its logistics and shipping operations, which has become an impenetrable moat that few other companies will ever have the resources or ability to match, with Amazon partnering with most major delivery providers in the country. By leveraging its robust network, it offers programs to enable sellers to sell their products through its marketplace and fulfill orders through the company.\nWith Fulfillment by Amazon ('FBA'), third party sellersstore products in Amazon's fulfillment centers, and it picks, packs, ships, and provide customer service for these products. Amazon is not the seller but earns commissions and related fulfillment and shipping fees including inventory management, payment processing, shipment tracking and reporting from the arrangements from its third-party sellers who are largely comprised of small- and medium-sized businesses.\nSelling on Amazon as a third-party seller is an increasingly popular option for sellers. It ultimately provides more flexibility and control, a stronger brand presence, and better data access. Over the past years, the rise of third-party sellers on Amazon is seen with the rising share of third-party sales as a % of its gross merchandise sales at 62% of total sales.\nSource: FourWeekMBA\nThe chart below further illustrates Amazon's large network of logistics and shipping. Its fulfillment center network is one of several ways it enhances its logistics and shipping process taking on FedEx and UPS and has been ramping up efforts to launch its delivery network as well with growing fleets of airplanes, drones and vans. Amazon's own logistics business delivered 1.9 bln packages in the US.\nSource: WebFX\nMoreover, its wide logistics and shipping coverage with over 100 active warehouses across the US with the highest number of facilities in California, Texas and New Jersey. Additionally, it is expanding heavily in the south with the highest number of planned warehouses. For example, the upcoming opening of a 1 million-square-foot fulfillmentcenter in Missouri in 2021 where employees will pack and ship larger-sized customer items like patio furniture, outdoor equipment or rugs. In 2020, it announced plans for 7 new fulfillmentcenters including a 600,000-square-foot facility in Florida, an 855,000-square foot facility in Tennessee and a 625,000square-foot fulfillment center in Texas.\nSource: CNBC\nOverall, these are among the factors which lead to the company's strength from its wide logistics network in terms of shipping speed. The company is highly popular for its speedy shipping and even has free Two-Day and even Same Day Shipping Programs for Prime members. Based on the survey below, the majority or 80% cited fast and free shipping as the major reason for choosing Amazon. We believe that the company's planned expansion would continue to enhance its logistics network and maintain its popularity among customers.\nSource: Statista\nWe forecasted the company's retail third-party seller services revenues which consist of fulfillment service-related revenues derived from the sales from third-party sellers. Amazon's third-party gross merchandise sales are forecasted to increase its share of total retail e-commerce sales as a growth rate of 9% based on the past 5-year average with the rising popularity of third-party sales on its marketplace. Moreover, we also forecasted the share of revenues that Amazon earns to grow by 1% from 27.3% based on the 2-year average as Amazon continues to expand its fulfillment capabilities to cater to its third-party sellers. This trend is also believed to be significant for margin expansion of the company as gross margins third-party seller services isestimatedto be between 60% to 75% of sales which is lower than AWS at 80% but still higher than the company's overall gross margin of 37% due to high costs tied up with the cost of sales which represents 60% of its total sales.\n\n\n\nThird-Party Seller Services Revenues ($ bln)\n2016\n2017\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nGlobal Retail E-commerce Sales ('a')\n1,845\n2,382\n2,982\n3,354\n4,280\n4,716\n5,434\n6,247\n\n\nGrowth %\n19.2%\n29.1%\n25.2%\n12.5%\n27.6%\n10.2%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nAmazon Third Party Market Share ('b')\n5.6%\n5.5%\n5.4%\n6.0%\n6.9%\n7.5%\n8.1%\n8.9%\n\n\nGrowth %\n21%\n-2%\n-2%\n11%\n16%\n9%\n9%\n9%\n\n\nThird-party (Amazon marketplace) GMV ('c')\n103\n130\n160\n200\n295\n353\n443\n553\n\n\nGrowth %\n26.2%\n23.1%\n25.0%\n47.5%\n19.8%\n25.3%\n25.0%\n\n\n% Of Revenues ('d')\n22.3%\n24.5%\n26.7%\n26.9%\n27.3%\n27.6%\n27.8%\n28.1%\n\n\nGrowth %\n9.9%\n9.0%\n0.6%\n1.5%\n1.0%\n1.0%\n1.0%\n\n\nRetail third-party seller services revenues ('e')\n22.99\n31.88\n42.75\n53.76\n80.46\n97.37\n123.25\n155.61\n\n\nGrowth %\n38.7%\n34.1%\n25.8%\n49.7%\n21.0%\n26.6%\n26.3%\n\n\n\n*C = A x B\n*E = C x D\nSource: Amazon, Statista, Khaveen Investments\nAWS Growth by Data Volume Growth\nAnother key area of growth of the company is cloud computing with notable largeclientssuch as Netflix (NFLX), Verizon (VZ), Capital One (COF), McDonald's (MCD). AWS revenues grew strongly at 29.5% in 2020 with a market share of 31.8% of the cloud infrastructuremarket. Since its launch nearly 2 decades ago, it has grown to become the market leader for years and looks set to maintain the status quo for the foreseeable future despite rising competition especially from Microsoft (MSFT) and Google gaining market share outpacing Amazon's growth.\nThe rapid growth of the cloud infrastructure market is underpinned by the rising volume of global data volume creation at aCAGRof 23% until 2025 as data volume is projected to grow to more than 180 zettabytes as the world becomes more data-driven with the rise of data analytics, 5G and IoT spurring the growth of data creation.\nSource: Statista, Khaveen Investments\nWe projected the growth of the cloud infrastructure market based on the forecasted growth of data volume at a 23% CAGR through 2025 at an average cloud infrastructure/data growth factor of 1.72.\n* A = B x C Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments\nThus, despite the plateauing market share of AWS as competitors like Microsoft outpaces its growth, we still believe in the massive opportunity in the cloud infrastructure market with the growing data volumes. Not to mention, the company has highlighted its commitment towards AWS with new client relationships such as major sports leagues around the world including National Hockey League, the PGA Tour, Formula 1 and the German Bundesliga. Furthermore, it also recently announced a relationship with Dish Network to build out cloud-based 5G infrastructure and would expand its data center footprint in Israel and the United Arab Emirates. It currently offers 80 availability zones across 25 geographic regions and plans to launch 15 more availability zones to support its cloud growth.\nSource: Canalys, Khaveen Investments\nAll in all, we projected AWS's revenue growth based on our market share forecast assumptions that its market share leadership is slowly chipped away by fast-growing competitors notably Microsoft but still maintaining its market leadership backed by solid large client relationship leveraging AWS. Based on a forecasted market share of 30.7% by 2023, we expect AWS revenues to grow to $81.5 bln.\n\n\n\nAWS Forecasts\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nAWS Market Share\n32.6%\n32.3%\n31.8%\n31.2%\n31.0%\n30.7%\n\n\nAWS Revenues ($ bln)\n25.66\n35.03\n45.37\n54.58\n66.81\n81.52\n\n\nGrowth %\n47.0%\n36.5%\n29.5%\n20.3%\n22.4%\n22.0%\n\n\n\nSource: Amazon, Canalys, Khaveen Investments\nWhile AWS only makes up 11% of its total revenues, its superior margins of 29% compared to only 2.8% for the other company segments has AWS accounting for 59% of operating income in 2020 which highlights the significance of AWS to its bottom line.\nSource: Amazon\nAntimonopoly and Data Privacy Fine Risk\nAmazon has been involved in allegations of the company's approach to unfairly attain data and information from third-party sellers, stated by the Democrats' report with the company's e-commerce market share around 40% in the US. With the reliance of sellers on Amazon's sales channel, Amazon can charge sellers exceptional fees and further penalizing sellers for lowering their prices on other sites. Also, a bipartisan group of House lawmakers is pushing big tech including Amazon for anoverhaulof their business practices under an expansive set of antitrust reforms that would make it harder for dominant platforms to complete mergers and prohibit them from owning businesses that present clear conflicts of interest.\nWhereas in the European Union, Amazon has been hit with the largest GDPR fine to date. The EU is moving beyond data breaches and zeroing in on data practices. Amazon faced a $888 million fine from violating the bloc's data protection rules. Amazon has been accused to violate the EU's General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). GDPR allows forfinesof up to 4% of Amazon's revenue, which the released number indicated around 4.2% of Amazon's $21.3 billion income in 2020.\nValuation\nThe company has had average revenue growth of 29.4% in the past 5 years with an average gross and net margin of 38.6% and 3.5% respectively. The strength of the company is its rising margins as its net margins have risen due to the superior growth of its cloud segment which commands higher margins. The AWS segment has a high operating margin of 29.6% versus 2.8% for the remaining business segments.\nSource: Amazon, Khaveen Investments\nMore importantly, the company has decent and imposing cash-generating abilities with an average FCF margin of 3.01% in the past 5 years. In 2017, its FCF margin dipped due to the acquisition of Whole Foods for $13.7 bln. The strength of its cash flows is the rising margins as its AWS business which is more profitable exhibits a higher growth than other segments.\nSource: Amazon, Khaveen Investments\nThe company's balance sheet strength is its strong ability to meet its debt obligations. It has a net debt of $113 bln in 2020 with an EBITDA/interest coverage ratio of 44x in 2020. Its ratio has steadily increased in the past 5 years from 32x as it grew its profitability with the superior growth of AWS.\nTo value Amazon, we used a DCF valuation as the company has had positive free cash flows in the past. We got an industry average EV/EBITDA of 27.64x based on comparable companies as shown in the table below.\n\n\n\nCompany\nEV/EBITDA\n\n\nAmazon\n28.57x\n\n\nAlibaba (BABA)\n21.14x\n\n\nMicrosoft\n25.89x\n\n\nGoogle\n22.46x\n\n\nAverage\n24.52x\n\n\n\nSource: SeekingAlpha\nThe revenue growth projections aresummarized below based on the revenue breakdown by its online stores, physical stores, retail third party seller services, subscription services, AWS and others. The online store projections are derived from its market share assumption on the forecasted growth of the e-commerce market while physical store sales are based on the retail sales growth rate forecast of 7.2% in 2021. Retail third-party seller services are derived from its share of third-party seller GMV of the total e-commerce market and an assumption of a % cut it earns as revenues from commissions and related fees. The AWS revenues are projected from the cloud market growth based on the rising data volumes forecasts. Other segments are based on its average 3-year growth rates. Beyond 2023, we tapered down our growth forecasts with a weighted CAGR of 14.2% of the e-commerce and cloud computing market through 2027 and tapering down from 12.3% in 2027 with an annual decrease of 2% per year until 2030 as we expect the e-commerce market to become more mature.\n\n\n\nAmazon Revenue Projections ($ bln)\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nOnline stores\n122.99\n141.25\n197.35\n211.74\n244.02\n280.50\n\n\nGrowth %\n13.5%\n14.8%\n39.7%\n7.3%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nPhysical stores\n17.22\n17.19\n16.23\n17.40\n18.55\n19.38\n\n\nGrowth %\n196.9%\n-0.2%\n-5.6%\n7.20%\n6.60%\n4.50%\n\n\nRetail third-party seller services\n42.75\n53.76\n80.46\n97.37\n123.25\n155.61\n\n\nGrowth %\n34.1%\n25.8%\n49.7%\n21.0%\n26.6%\n26.3%\n\n\nSubscription services\n14.17\n19.21\n25.21\n34.67\n47.68\n65.58\n\n\nGrowth %\n45.8%\n35.6%\n31.2%\n37.5%\n37.5%\n37.5%\n\n\nAWS\n25.66\n35.03\n45.37\n54.58\n66.81\n81.52\n\n\nGrowth %\n47.0%\n36.5%\n29.5%\n20.3%\n22.4%\n22.0%\n\n\nOther\n10.11\n14.09\n21.45\n31.27\n45.60\n66.48\n\n\nGrowth %\n117.4%\n39.4%\n52.2%\n45.8%\n45.8%\n45.8%\n\n\nTotal\n232.9\n280.53\n386.07\n447.0\n545.9\n669.1\n\n\nTotal Growth %\n30.9%\n20.5%\n37.6%\n15.8%\n22.1%\n22.6%\n\n\n\nSource: Amazon, Khaveen Investments\nBased on a discount rate of 12.7% (company's WACC), our model shows an upside of 36.9%.\nSource: Khaveen Investments\nVerdict\nIn conclusion, weanalyzed the company's key growth drivers namely the online retail, third-party seller services and AWS. While the accelerated growth eventually winds down, its growth outlook remains highly attractive as an established and dominant market leader in e-commerce. The share of e-commerce sales as a % of total retail sales is forecasted to keep marching higher with the shift of consumers buyingbehavior towards e-commerce with a forecasted rate of 22% by 2023. The company's Prime member provides it with a loyal customer base roughly half of the US population. Moreover, another key strength is its vast logistics and shipping network and Amazon FBA seeing the continued rise of third-party sellers on its online marketplace. Finally, AWS remains the clear market leader in the foreseeable future with close relationships with large corporate clients and continuous commitment by management to cater to the growing infrastructure needs of the segment. Thus, despite the expected normalizing growth in 2021, we believe that its outlook continued to be buoyed by the rising e-commerce and cloud computing market and revised our growth rate projections to 15.8% in 2021 followed by 22% in 2020. Overall, we rate the stock as aBuywith a price target of$4,363.96.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3245,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":154249681,"gmtCreate":1625531537743,"gmtModify":1631890915328,"author":{"id":"3584755094881851","authorId":"3584755094881851","name":"MewCat","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584755094881851","idStr":"3584755094881851"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Covid, no demand for o&amp;g, settle covid boost o&amp;g","listText":"Covid, no demand for o&amp;g, settle covid boost o&amp;g","text":"Covid, no demand for o&g, settle covid boost o&g","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/154249681","repostId":"1190430616","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2902,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":148179032,"gmtCreate":1625963892726,"gmtModify":1631890915316,"author":{"id":"3584755094881851","authorId":"3584755094881851","name":"MewCat","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584755094881851","idStr":"3584755094881851"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"GG","listText":"GG","text":"GG","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/148179032","repostId":"1138077902","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138077902","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1625883154,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1138077902?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-10 10:12","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"China has prohibited the merger of HuYa and DouYu<blockquote>中国禁止虎牙和斗鱼合并</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138077902","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"The State Administration of market supervision of China has prohibited the merger of HuYa and DouYu.On January 4, 2021, the State Administration of market supervision of the people's Republic of China conducted an anti-monopoly examination on the concentration of business operators in accordance with the law in the merger case of tiger tooth company and Betta International Holding Co., Ltd. declared by Tencent Holding Co., Ltd.Tencent responded that the company will seriously abide by the review","content":"<p>The State Administration of market supervision of China has prohibited the merger of HuYa and DouYu.</p><p><blockquote>中国国家市场监督管理总局已经禁止虎牙和斗鱼合并。</blockquote></p><p> On January 4, 2021, the State Administration of market supervision of the people's Republic of China conducted an anti-monopoly examination on the concentration of business operators in accordance with the law in the merger case of tiger tooth company and Betta International Holding Co., Ltd. declared by Tencent Holding Co., Ltd.</p><p><blockquote>2021年1月4日，国家市场监督管理总局对腾讯控股控股有限公司申报的虎牙公司与斗鱼国际控股有限公司合并一案，依法进行了经营者集中反垄断审查。</blockquote></p><p> According to the anti monopoly law, the State Administration of market supervision comprehensively analyzes and evaluates the market share of the operators participating in the concentration in the relevant market and their control over the market, the degree of market concentration, the impact of concentration on market entry and technological progress, the impact of concentration on consumers and other relevant operators, as well as the effectiveness of the additional restrictive commitment scheme proposed by Tencent. During the review process, the State Administration of market supervision extensively solicited opinions from relevant government departments, industry associations, experts and scholars, competitors in the same industry and downstream customers, and listened to Tencent's opinions for many times.</p><p><blockquote>国家市场监督管理总局根据《反垄断法》，综合分析评价参与集中的经营者在相关市场的市场份额及其对市场的控制力、市场集中程度、集中对市场进入和技术进步的影响、集中对消费者和其他相关经营者的影响，以及腾讯控股提出的附加限制性承诺方案的有效性。在审查过程中，市场监管总局广泛征求了相关政府部门、行业协会、专家学者、同行业竞争对手和下游客户的意见，多次听取了腾讯方面的意见。</blockquote></p><p> The review shows that the relevant market of this case is the online game operation service market and the live game market in China. Tencent's market share in the upstream online game operation service exceeds 40%, ranking first; Tiger teeth and fighting fish have more than 40% and 30% of the downstream live game market shares respectively, ranking first and second, with a total of more than 70%. At present, Tencent has separate control over tiger tooth and joint control over Betta. For example, the merger of tiger tooth and Betta will make Tencent control the merged entity separately, further strengthen Tencent's dominant position in the live game market, and enable Tencent to have the ability and motivation to implement closed-loop management and two-way vertical blockade in the upstream and downstream markets, which has or may have the effect of excluding and limiting competition, which is not conducive to fair competition in the market and may damage the interests of consumers, It is not conducive to the healthy and sustainable development of online games and live game market. After evaluation, Tencent's proposal of additional restrictive conditions commitment can not effectively solve the above competition concerns.</p><p><blockquote>审查显示，本案涉案市场为我国网络游戏运营服务市场和直播游戏市场。腾讯在上游网络游戏运营服务市场份额超过40%，排名第一；虎牙和斗鱼分别占据了下游直播游戏市场份额的40%和30%以上，分列第一和第二位，合计超过70%。目前，腾讯控股对虎牙实行单独管控，对斗鱼实行联合管控。如虎牙与斗鱼合并将使腾讯控股单独控制合并后的实体，进一步强化腾讯在直播游戏市场的主导地位，使腾讯控股有能力和动力在上下游市场实施闭环管理和双向垂直封锁，具有或可能具有排除和限制竞争的效果，不利于市场的公平竞争，可能损害消费者的利益，不利于网络游戏和直播游戏市场的健康可持续发展。经评估，腾讯提出的附加限制性条件承诺不能有效解决上述竞争担忧。</blockquote></p><p> According to Article 28 of the anti monopoly law and Article 35 of the Interim Provisions on the examination of business concentration, the State Administration of market supervision has decided to prohibit such business concentration according to law.</p><p><blockquote>根据《反垄断法》第二十八条和《经营者集中审查暂行规定》第三十五条的规定，市场监管总局决定依法禁止此类经营者集中。</blockquote></p><p> Tencent responded that the company will seriously abide by the review decision, actively cooperate with regulatory requirements, operate in accordance with the law and fulfill its social responsibilities.</p><p><blockquote>腾讯控股回应称，公司将认真遵守审查决定，积极配合监管要求，依法经营，履行社会责任。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChina has prohibited the merger of HuYa and DouYu<blockquote>中国禁止虎牙和斗鱼合并</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-10 10:12</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The State Administration of market supervision of China has prohibited the merger of HuYa and DouYu.</p><p><blockquote>中国国家市场监督管理总局已经禁止虎牙和斗鱼合并。</blockquote></p><p> On January 4, 2021, the State Administration of market supervision of the people's Republic of China conducted an anti-monopoly examination on the concentration of business operators in accordance with the law in the merger case of tiger tooth company and Betta International Holding Co., Ltd. declared by Tencent Holding Co., Ltd.</p><p><blockquote>2021年1月4日，国家市场监督管理总局对腾讯控股控股有限公司申报的虎牙公司与斗鱼国际控股有限公司合并一案，依法进行了经营者集中反垄断审查。</blockquote></p><p> According to the anti monopoly law, the State Administration of market supervision comprehensively analyzes and evaluates the market share of the operators participating in the concentration in the relevant market and their control over the market, the degree of market concentration, the impact of concentration on market entry and technological progress, the impact of concentration on consumers and other relevant operators, as well as the effectiveness of the additional restrictive commitment scheme proposed by Tencent. During the review process, the State Administration of market supervision extensively solicited opinions from relevant government departments, industry associations, experts and scholars, competitors in the same industry and downstream customers, and listened to Tencent's opinions for many times.</p><p><blockquote>国家市场监督管理总局根据《反垄断法》，综合分析评价参与集中的经营者在相关市场的市场份额及其对市场的控制力、市场集中程度、集中对市场进入和技术进步的影响、集中对消费者和其他相关经营者的影响，以及腾讯控股提出的附加限制性承诺方案的有效性。在审查过程中，市场监管总局广泛征求了相关政府部门、行业协会、专家学者、同行业竞争对手和下游客户的意见，多次听取了腾讯方面的意见。</blockquote></p><p> The review shows that the relevant market of this case is the online game operation service market and the live game market in China. Tencent's market share in the upstream online game operation service exceeds 40%, ranking first; Tiger teeth and fighting fish have more than 40% and 30% of the downstream live game market shares respectively, ranking first and second, with a total of more than 70%. At present, Tencent has separate control over tiger tooth and joint control over Betta. For example, the merger of tiger tooth and Betta will make Tencent control the merged entity separately, further strengthen Tencent's dominant position in the live game market, and enable Tencent to have the ability and motivation to implement closed-loop management and two-way vertical blockade in the upstream and downstream markets, which has or may have the effect of excluding and limiting competition, which is not conducive to fair competition in the market and may damage the interests of consumers, It is not conducive to the healthy and sustainable development of online games and live game market. After evaluation, Tencent's proposal of additional restrictive conditions commitment can not effectively solve the above competition concerns.</p><p><blockquote>审查显示，本案涉案市场为我国网络游戏运营服务市场和直播游戏市场。腾讯在上游网络游戏运营服务市场份额超过40%，排名第一；虎牙和斗鱼分别占据了下游直播游戏市场份额的40%和30%以上，分列第一和第二位，合计超过70%。目前，腾讯控股对虎牙实行单独管控，对斗鱼实行联合管控。如虎牙与斗鱼合并将使腾讯控股单独控制合并后的实体，进一步强化腾讯在直播游戏市场的主导地位，使腾讯控股有能力和动力在上下游市场实施闭环管理和双向垂直封锁，具有或可能具有排除和限制竞争的效果，不利于市场的公平竞争，可能损害消费者的利益，不利于网络游戏和直播游戏市场的健康可持续发展。经评估，腾讯提出的附加限制性条件承诺不能有效解决上述竞争担忧。</blockquote></p><p> According to Article 28 of the anti monopoly law and Article 35 of the Interim Provisions on the examination of business concentration, the State Administration of market supervision has decided to prohibit such business concentration according to law.</p><p><blockquote>根据《反垄断法》第二十八条和《经营者集中审查暂行规定》第三十五条的规定，市场监管总局决定依法禁止此类经营者集中。</blockquote></p><p> Tencent responded that the company will seriously abide by the review decision, actively cooperate with regulatory requirements, operate in accordance with the law and fulfill its social responsibilities.</p><p><blockquote>腾讯控股回应称，公司将认真遵守审查决定，积极配合监管要求，依法经营，履行社会责任。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"00700":"腾讯控股","DOYU":"斗鱼","HUYA":"虎牙"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138077902","content_text":"The State Administration of market supervision of China has prohibited the merger of HuYa and DouYu.\nOn January 4, 2021, the State Administration of market supervision of the people's Republic of China conducted an anti-monopoly examination on the concentration of business operators in accordance with the law in the merger case of tiger tooth company and Betta International Holding Co., Ltd. declared by Tencent Holding Co., Ltd.\nAccording to the anti monopoly law, the State Administration of market supervision comprehensively analyzes and evaluates the market share of the operators participating in the concentration in the relevant market and their control over the market, the degree of market concentration, the impact of concentration on market entry and technological progress, the impact of concentration on consumers and other relevant operators, as well as the effectiveness of the additional restrictive commitment scheme proposed by Tencent. During the review process, the State Administration of market supervision extensively solicited opinions from relevant government departments, industry associations, experts and scholars, competitors in the same industry and downstream customers, and listened to Tencent's opinions for many times.\nThe review shows that the relevant market of this case is the online game operation service market and the live game market in China. Tencent's market share in the upstream online game operation service exceeds 40%, ranking first; Tiger teeth and fighting fish have more than 40% and 30% of the downstream live game market shares respectively, ranking first and second, with a total of more than 70%. At present, Tencent has separate control over tiger tooth and joint control over Betta. For example, the merger of tiger tooth and Betta will make Tencent control the merged entity separately, further strengthen Tencent's dominant position in the live game market, and enable Tencent to have the ability and motivation to implement closed-loop management and two-way vertical blockade in the upstream and downstream markets, which has or may have the effect of excluding and limiting competition, which is not conducive to fair competition in the market and may damage the interests of consumers, It is not conducive to the healthy and sustainable development of online games and live game market. After evaluation, Tencent's proposal of additional restrictive conditions commitment can not effectively solve the above competition concerns.\nAccording to Article 28 of the anti monopoly law and Article 35 of the Interim Provisions on the examination of business concentration, the State Administration of market supervision has decided to prohibit such business concentration according to law.\nTencent responded that the company will seriously abide by the review decision, actively cooperate with regulatory requirements, operate in accordance with the law and fulfill its social responsibilities.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"00700":0.9,"DOYU":0.9,"HUYA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2990,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":125858685,"gmtCreate":1624668819147,"gmtModify":1631890915392,"author":{"id":"3584755094881851","authorId":"3584755094881851","name":"MewCat","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584755094881851","idStr":"3584755094881851"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"FED rate will go up soon&nbsp;","listText":"FED rate will go up soon&nbsp;","text":"FED rate will go up soon","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/125858685","repostId":"1177764085","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3309,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":809975986,"gmtCreate":1627346171945,"gmtModify":1631890915295,"author":{"id":"3584755094881851","authorId":"3584755094881851","name":"MewCat","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584755094881851","idStr":"3584755094881851"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Cryto no reaction, keep going up","listText":"Cryto no reaction, keep going up","text":"Cryto no reaction, keep going up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/809975986","repostId":"2154720964","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3046,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":155520098,"gmtCreate":1625445520214,"gmtModify":1631890915343,"author":{"id":"3584755094881851","authorId":"3584755094881851","name":"MewCat","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584755094881851","idStr":"3584755094881851"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Fed minutes&nbsp;[思考]&nbsp;","listText":"Fed minutes&nbsp;[思考]&nbsp;","text":"Fed minutes [思考]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/155520098","repostId":"1138258779","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3105,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":150571030,"gmtCreate":1624923224420,"gmtModify":1631890915369,"author":{"id":"3584755094881851","authorId":"3584755094881851","name":"MewCat","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584755094881851","idStr":"3584755094881851"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good time for finance stocks","listText":"Good time for finance stocks","text":"Good time for finance stocks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/150571030","repostId":"2147837154","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4088,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":127132735,"gmtCreate":1624839114227,"gmtModify":1631890915380,"author":{"id":"3584755094881851","authorId":"3584755094881851","name":"MewCat","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584755094881851","idStr":"3584755094881851"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Slow but steady","listText":"Slow but steady","text":"Slow but steady","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/127132735","repostId":"1104974895","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1104974895","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624764940,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1104974895?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-27 11:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Microsoft Rides Its Cloud Business to a $2 Trillion Market Cap. It’s Not Done Yet.<blockquote>微软的云业务市值达到了 2 万亿美元。还没完成。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104974895","media":"Barrons","summary":"Microsoft is now the second company to boast a $2 trillion market capitalization, following Apple,wh","content":"<p>Microsoft&nbsp;is now the second company to boast a $2 trillion market capitalization, following&nbsp;Apple,which breached that level last August. And Microsoft may go higher yet.</p><p><blockquote>微软现在是继去年 8 月突破这一水平的苹果之后第二家拥有 2 万亿美元市值的公司。微软可能还会走高。</blockquote></p><p> Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives this past week reiterated his Outperform rating on the software giant, lifting his price target on the shares to $325 from $310. That represents a potential gain of more than 20%, which would take the company’s market value to $2.4 trillion. His enthusiasm for the stock is driven by Microsoft’s cloud business, Azure.</p><p><blockquote>Wedbush 分析师丹尼尔·艾夫斯 (Daniel Ives) 上周重申了他对这家软件巨头的跑赢大盘评级，将该股目标价从 310 美元上调至 325 美元。这意味着潜在收益将超过 20%，公司市值将达到 2.4 万亿美元。他对这只股票的热情是由微软的云业务 Azure 推动的。</blockquote></p><p> On Wednesday, Microsoft shares inched up 0.1% to $265.79, a new high, boosting its market cap to $2.004 trillion. (Apple is at roughly $2.2 trillion.) Ives notes that June channel checks find improving demand for Azure. “The Azure cloud growth story is hitting its next gear of growth,” he writes. “We are seeing deal sizes continue to increase markedly as enterprisewide digital transformation shifts are accelerating with CIOs all focused on readying their respective enterprises for a cloud-driven architecture.”</p><p><blockquote>周三，微软股价小幅上涨 0.1%，至 265.79 美元，创下新高，市值达到 2.004 万亿美元。（苹果的市值约为 2.2 万亿美元。）艾夫斯指出，6 月份的渠道检查发现对 Azure 的需求有所改善。“他写道：”Azure 云的增长故事正在进入下一个增长阶段。“随着企业范围内的数字化转型转型加速，首席信息官们都专注于让各自的企业为云驱动的架构做好准备，我们看到交易规模将继续显著增加。”</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street concerns that cloud growth will moderate coming out of the pandemic run counter to the deal activity Microsoft is seeing, Ives writes, noting that June-quarter results appear to be “robust.” He thinks Microsoft is still only about 35% into the conversion of its installed application base into the cloud.</p><p><blockquote>艾夫斯写道，华尔街担心大流行病后的云增长会放缓，这与微软的交易活动背道而驰，并指出 6 月份的季度业绩似乎 “强劲”。他认为微软将其安装的应用程序基础转化为云的进度仍然只有大约35%。</blockquote></p><p> Ives sees continuing global “digital transformation” as a $1 trillion opportunity, and says Microsoft will disproportionately benefit. “Microsoft remains our favorite large-cap cloud play and we believe the stock will start to move higher over the coming quarters...,” he writes. “The growth story at Microsoft is not slowing down.”</p><p><blockquote>艾夫斯认为，持续的全球 “数字化转型 ”是一个价值 1 万亿美元的机遇，并表示微软将从中受益不成比例。“他写道：”微软仍然是我们最喜欢的大盘云公司，我们相信该股将在未来几个季度开始走高。“微软的增长故事并没有放缓”。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19e4bb0961389beaa2711931e02dc060\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"672\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a62e0638b1f4f9c28301e4d93721571\" tg-width=\"981\" tg-height=\"684\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Microsoft Rides Its Cloud Business to a $2 Trillion Market Cap. It’s Not Done Yet.<blockquote>微软的云业务市值达到了 2 万亿美元。还没完成。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMicrosoft Rides Its Cloud Business to a $2 Trillion Market Cap. It’s Not Done Yet.<blockquote>微软的云业务市值达到了 2 万亿美元。还没完成。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-27 11:35</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Microsoft&nbsp;is now the second company to boast a $2 trillion market capitalization, following&nbsp;Apple,which breached that level last August. And Microsoft may go higher yet.</p><p><blockquote>微软现在是继去年 8 月突破这一水平的苹果之后第二家拥有 2 万亿美元市值的公司。微软可能还会走高。</blockquote></p><p> Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives this past week reiterated his Outperform rating on the software giant, lifting his price target on the shares to $325 from $310. That represents a potential gain of more than 20%, which would take the company’s market value to $2.4 trillion. His enthusiasm for the stock is driven by Microsoft’s cloud business, Azure.</p><p><blockquote>Wedbush 分析师丹尼尔·艾夫斯 (Daniel Ives) 上周重申了他对这家软件巨头的跑赢大盘评级，将该股目标价从 310 美元上调至 325 美元。这意味着潜在收益将超过 20%，公司市值将达到 2.4 万亿美元。他对这只股票的热情是由微软的云业务 Azure 推动的。</blockquote></p><p> On Wednesday, Microsoft shares inched up 0.1% to $265.79, a new high, boosting its market cap to $2.004 trillion. (Apple is at roughly $2.2 trillion.) Ives notes that June channel checks find improving demand for Azure. “The Azure cloud growth story is hitting its next gear of growth,” he writes. “We are seeing deal sizes continue to increase markedly as enterprisewide digital transformation shifts are accelerating with CIOs all focused on readying their respective enterprises for a cloud-driven architecture.”</p><p><blockquote>周三，微软股价小幅上涨 0.1%，至 265.79 美元，创下新高，市值达到 2.004 万亿美元。（苹果的市值约为 2.2 万亿美元。）艾夫斯指出，6 月份的渠道检查发现对 Azure 的需求有所改善。“他写道：”Azure 云的增长故事正在进入下一个增长阶段。“随着企业范围内的数字化转型转型加速，首席信息官们都专注于让各自的企业为云驱动的架构做好准备，我们看到交易规模将继续显著增加。”</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street concerns that cloud growth will moderate coming out of the pandemic run counter to the deal activity Microsoft is seeing, Ives writes, noting that June-quarter results appear to be “robust.” He thinks Microsoft is still only about 35% into the conversion of its installed application base into the cloud.</p><p><blockquote>艾夫斯写道，华尔街担心大流行病后的云增长会放缓，这与微软的交易活动背道而驰，并指出 6 月份的季度业绩似乎 “强劲”。他认为微软将其安装的应用程序基础转化为云的进度仍然只有大约35%。</blockquote></p><p> Ives sees continuing global “digital transformation” as a $1 trillion opportunity, and says Microsoft will disproportionately benefit. “Microsoft remains our favorite large-cap cloud play and we believe the stock will start to move higher over the coming quarters...,” he writes. “The growth story at Microsoft is not slowing down.”</p><p><blockquote>艾夫斯认为，持续的全球 “数字化转型 ”是一个价值 1 万亿美元的机遇，并表示微软将从中受益不成比例。“他写道：”微软仍然是我们最喜欢的大盘云公司，我们相信该股将在未来几个季度开始走高。“微软的增长故事并没有放缓”。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19e4bb0961389beaa2711931e02dc060\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"672\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a62e0638b1f4f9c28301e4d93721571\" tg-width=\"981\" tg-height=\"684\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/microsoft-market-cap-51624670572?mod=RTA\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/microsoft-market-cap-51624670572?mod=RTA","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1104974895","content_text":"Microsoft is now the second company to boast a $2 trillion market capitalization, following Apple,which breached that level last August. And Microsoft may go higher yet.\nWedbush analyst Daniel Ives this past week reiterated his Outperform rating on the software giant, lifting his price target on the shares to $325 from $310. That represents a potential gain of more than 20%, which would take the company’s market value to $2.4 trillion. His enthusiasm for the stock is driven by Microsoft’s cloud business, Azure.\nOn Wednesday, Microsoft shares inched up 0.1% to $265.79, a new high, boosting its market cap to $2.004 trillion. (Apple is at roughly $2.2 trillion.) Ives notes that June channel checks find improving demand for Azure. “The Azure cloud growth story is hitting its next gear of growth,” he writes. “We are seeing deal sizes continue to increase markedly as enterprisewide digital transformation shifts are accelerating with CIOs all focused on readying their respective enterprises for a cloud-driven architecture.”\nWall Street concerns that cloud growth will moderate coming out of the pandemic run counter to the deal activity Microsoft is seeing, Ives writes, noting that June-quarter results appear to be “robust.” He thinks Microsoft is still only about 35% into the conversion of its installed application base into the cloud.\nIves sees continuing global “digital transformation” as a $1 trillion opportunity, and says Microsoft will disproportionately benefit. “Microsoft remains our favorite large-cap cloud play and we believe the stock will start to move higher over the coming quarters...,” he writes. “The growth story at Microsoft is not slowing down.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MSFT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3330,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":151595286,"gmtCreate":1625097649945,"gmtModify":1631890915353,"author":{"id":"3584755094881851","authorId":"3584755094881851","name":"MewCat","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584755094881851","idStr":"3584755094881851"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Going up non-stop","listText":"Going up non-stop","text":"Going up non-stop","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/151595286","repostId":"1178516480","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1178516480","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625094708,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1178516480?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-01 07:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"S&P 500 notches fifth straight record closing high, fifth straight quarterly gain<blockquote>标普500连续第五次创下收盘历史新高，连续第五个季度上涨</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1178516480","media":"Reuters","summary":"NEW YORK (Reuters) - The S&P 500 nabbed its fifth straight record closing high on Wednesday as inves","content":"<p>NEW YORK (Reuters) - The S&amp;P 500 nabbed its fifth straight record closing high on Wednesday as investors ended the month and the quarter by largely shrugging off positive economic data and looking toward Friday’s highly anticipated employment report.</p><p><blockquote>纽约（路透社）--标普500周三连续第五次创下收盘新高，投资者在结束本月和本季度时基本上对积极的经济数据不屑一顾，转而关注周五备受期待的就业报告。</blockquote></p><p> In the last session of 2021’s first half, the indexes were languid and range-bound, with the blue-chip Dow posting gains, while the Nasdaq edged lower.</p><p><blockquote>在 2021 年上半年的最后一个交易日，各指数表现低迷，区间震荡，蓝筹股道琼斯指数上涨，而纳斯达克指数则小幅走低。</blockquote></p><p> All three indexes posted their fifth consecutive quarterly gains, with the S&amp;P rising 8.2%, the Nasdaq advancing 9.5% and the Dow rising 4.6%. The S&amp;P 500 registered its second-best first-half performance since 1998, rising 14.5%.</p><p><blockquote>这三个指数均连续第五个季度上涨，其中标准普尔指数上涨 8.2%，纳斯达克指数上涨 9.5%，道琼斯指数上涨 4.6%。标普500上半年表现创1998年以来第二好，上涨14.5%。</blockquote></p><p> “It’s been a good quarter,” said Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth in Fairfield, Connecticut. “As of last night’s close, the S&amp;P has gained more than 14% year-to-date, topping the Dow and the Nasdaq. That indicates that the stock market is having a broad rally.”</p><p><blockquote>“康涅狄格州费尔菲尔德 Dakota Wealth 高级投资组合经理罗伯特-帕夫利克（Robert Pavlik）说：”这是一个不错的季度。“截至昨晚收盘，标准普尔指数今年迄今已上涨超过 14%，超过道琼斯指数和纳斯达克指数。这表明股市正在全面反弹。”</blockquote></p><p> For the month, the bellwether S&amp;P 500 notched its fifth consecutive advance, while the Dow snapped its four-month winning streak to end slightly lower. The Nasdaq also gained ground in June.</p><p><blockquote>本月，领头羊标普500指数连续第五次上涨，而道琼斯指数则结束了四个月的连涨，收盘小幅走低。纳斯达克在6月份也取得了进展。</blockquote></p><p> This month, investor appetite shifted away from economically sensitive cyclicals in favor of growth stocks.</p><p><blockquote>本月，投资者的兴趣从对经济敏感的周期性股票转向成长型股票。</blockquote></p><p> “Leading sectors year-to-date are what you’d expect,” Pavlik added. “Energy, financials and industrials, and that speaks to an economic environment that’s in the early stages of a cycle.”</p><p><blockquote>“帕夫利克补充说：”今年迄今为止的领先行业是你所期望的。“能源、金融和工业，这表明经济环境正处于周期的早期阶段”。</blockquote></p><p> “(Investors) started the switch back to growth (stocks) after people started to buy in to (Fed Chair Jerome) Powell’s comments that focus on transitory inflation,” Pavlik added.</p><p><blockquote>“帕夫利克补充说：”在人们开始接受（美联储主席杰罗姆）鲍威尔关注短暂通胀的言论后，（投资者）开始转向成长型（股票）。</blockquote></p><p> “Some of the reopening trades have gotten a bit long in the tooth and that’s leading people back to growth.”</p><p><blockquote>“一些重新开放的行业已经有点长了，这正在引导人们恢复增长”。</blockquote></p><p> (Graphic: Growths stocks outperform value in June, narrow YTD gap, )</p><p><blockquote>（图表：6 月份成长型股票跑赢价值，年初至今差距缩小）</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b82b4dfdc765d913811f9d8572e60f6\" tg-width=\"964\" tg-height=\"723\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">“The overall stock market continues to be on a tear, with very consistent gains for quite some time,” said Tim Ghriskey, chief investment strategist at Inverness Counsel in New York. “Valuations, while certainly high by historical standards, have been at a fairly consistent level, benefiting from the economic recovery.”</p><p><blockquote>“纽约因弗内斯律师事务所首席投资策略师蒂姆-格里斯基（Tim Ghriskey）说：”整体股市继续上涨，在相当长一段时间内涨幅非常稳定。“虽然按历史标准来看，估值肯定很高，但受益于经济复苏，估值一直处于相当稳定的水平。”</blockquote></p><p> The private sector added 692,000 jobs in June, breezing past expectations, according to payroll processor ADP. The number is 92,000 higher than the private payroll adds economists predict from the Labor Department’s more comprehensive employment report due on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>根据薪资处理商 ADP 的数据，6 月份私营部门新增就业岗位 692,000 个，轻松超出预期。经济学家在劳工部将于周五发布的更全面的就业报告中补充说，这一数字比私人就业人数高出 9.2 万人。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 210.22 points, or 0.61%, to 34,502.51, the S&amp;P 500 gained 5.7 points, or 0.13%, to 4,297.5 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 24.38 points, or 0.17%, to 14,503.95.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数上涨 210.22 点，或 0.61%，至 34,502.51 点；标普500指数上涨 5.7 点，或 0.13%，至 4,297.5 点；纳斯达克综合指数下跌 24.38 点，或 0.17%，至 14,503.95 点。</blockquote></p><p> Among the 11 major sectors in the S&amp;P, six ended the session higher, with energy enjoying the biggest percentage gain. Real estate was the day’s biggest loser.</p><p><blockquote>在标准普尔的 11 个主要板块中，有 6 个板块收高，其中能源板块涨幅最大。房地产是当天最大的输家。</blockquote></p><p> Boeing Co gained 1.6% after Germany’s defense ministry announced it would buy five of the planemaker’s P-8A maritime control aircraft, coming on the heels of United Airlines unveiling its largest-ever order for new planes.</p><p><blockquote>在德国国防部宣布将购买该飞机制造商的五架 P-8A 海上管制飞机后，波音公司股价上涨了 1.6%。</blockquote></p><p> Walmart jumped 2.7% after announcing on Tuesday that it would start selling a prescription-only insulin analog.</p><p><blockquote>沃尔玛周二宣布将开始销售仅限处方的胰岛素类似物，股价上涨 2.7%。</blockquote></p><p> Micron Technology advanced 2.5% ahead of its quarterly earnings release, but was relatively unchanged in after-hours trading following the chipmaker’s quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>美光科技在发布季度财报前上涨了 2.5%，但在芯片制造商公布季度财报后的盘后交易中股价相对持平。</blockquote></p><p> Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 1.35-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.19-to-1 ratio favored decliners.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所上涨发行量超过下跌发行量，比例为 1.35 比 1；在纳斯达克，1.19 比 1 的比率有利于下跌者。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 posted 20 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 70 new highs and 36 new lows.</p><p><blockquote>标普500创下20个52周新高，没有新低；纳斯达克综合指数创下70个新高和36个新低。</blockquote></p><p> Volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.85 billion shares, compared with the 11.05 billion average over the last 20 trading days.</p><p><blockquote>美国交易所的成交量为 108.5 亿股，而过去 20 个交易日的平均成交量为 110.5 亿股。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>S&P 500 notches fifth straight record closing high, fifth straight quarterly gain<blockquote>标普500连续第五次创下收盘历史新高，连续第五个季度上涨</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nS&P 500 notches fifth straight record closing high, fifth straight quarterly gain<blockquote>标普500连续第五次创下收盘历史新高，连续第五个季度上涨</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-01 07:11</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>NEW YORK (Reuters) - The S&amp;P 500 nabbed its fifth straight record closing high on Wednesday as investors ended the month and the quarter by largely shrugging off positive economic data and looking toward Friday’s highly anticipated employment report.</p><p><blockquote>纽约（路透社）--标普500周三连续第五次创下收盘新高，投资者在结束本月和本季度时基本上对积极的经济数据不屑一顾，转而关注周五备受期待的就业报告。</blockquote></p><p> In the last session of 2021’s first half, the indexes were languid and range-bound, with the blue-chip Dow posting gains, while the Nasdaq edged lower.</p><p><blockquote>在 2021 年上半年的最后一个交易日，各指数表现低迷，区间震荡，蓝筹股道琼斯指数上涨，而纳斯达克指数则小幅走低。</blockquote></p><p> All three indexes posted their fifth consecutive quarterly gains, with the S&amp;P rising 8.2%, the Nasdaq advancing 9.5% and the Dow rising 4.6%. The S&amp;P 500 registered its second-best first-half performance since 1998, rising 14.5%.</p><p><blockquote>这三个指数均连续第五个季度上涨，其中标准普尔指数上涨 8.2%，纳斯达克指数上涨 9.5%，道琼斯指数上涨 4.6%。标普500上半年表现创1998年以来第二好，上涨14.5%。</blockquote></p><p> “It’s been a good quarter,” said Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth in Fairfield, Connecticut. “As of last night’s close, the S&amp;P has gained more than 14% year-to-date, topping the Dow and the Nasdaq. That indicates that the stock market is having a broad rally.”</p><p><blockquote>“康涅狄格州费尔菲尔德 Dakota Wealth 高级投资组合经理罗伯特-帕夫利克（Robert Pavlik）说：”这是一个不错的季度。“截至昨晚收盘，标准普尔指数今年迄今已上涨超过 14%，超过道琼斯指数和纳斯达克指数。这表明股市正在全面反弹。”</blockquote></p><p> For the month, the bellwether S&amp;P 500 notched its fifth consecutive advance, while the Dow snapped its four-month winning streak to end slightly lower. The Nasdaq also gained ground in June.</p><p><blockquote>本月，领头羊标普500指数连续第五次上涨，而道琼斯指数则结束了四个月的连涨，收盘小幅走低。纳斯达克在6月份也取得了进展。</blockquote></p><p> This month, investor appetite shifted away from economically sensitive cyclicals in favor of growth stocks.</p><p><blockquote>本月，投资者的兴趣从对经济敏感的周期性股票转向成长型股票。</blockquote></p><p> “Leading sectors year-to-date are what you’d expect,” Pavlik added. “Energy, financials and industrials, and that speaks to an economic environment that’s in the early stages of a cycle.”</p><p><blockquote>“帕夫利克补充说：”今年迄今为止的领先行业是你所期望的。“能源、金融和工业，这表明经济环境正处于周期的早期阶段”。</blockquote></p><p> “(Investors) started the switch back to growth (stocks) after people started to buy in to (Fed Chair Jerome) Powell’s comments that focus on transitory inflation,” Pavlik added.</p><p><blockquote>“帕夫利克补充说：”在人们开始接受（美联储主席杰罗姆）鲍威尔关注短暂通胀的言论后，（投资者）开始转向成长型（股票）。</blockquote></p><p> “Some of the reopening trades have gotten a bit long in the tooth and that’s leading people back to growth.”</p><p><blockquote>“一些重新开放的行业已经有点长了，这正在引导人们恢复增长”。</blockquote></p><p> (Graphic: Growths stocks outperform value in June, narrow YTD gap, )</p><p><blockquote>（图表：6 月份成长型股票跑赢价值，年初至今差距缩小）</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b82b4dfdc765d913811f9d8572e60f6\" tg-width=\"964\" tg-height=\"723\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">“The overall stock market continues to be on a tear, with very consistent gains for quite some time,” said Tim Ghriskey, chief investment strategist at Inverness Counsel in New York. “Valuations, while certainly high by historical standards, have been at a fairly consistent level, benefiting from the economic recovery.”</p><p><blockquote>“纽约因弗内斯律师事务所首席投资策略师蒂姆-格里斯基（Tim Ghriskey）说：”整体股市继续上涨，在相当长一段时间内涨幅非常稳定。“虽然按历史标准来看，估值肯定很高，但受益于经济复苏，估值一直处于相当稳定的水平。”</blockquote></p><p> The private sector added 692,000 jobs in June, breezing past expectations, according to payroll processor ADP. The number is 92,000 higher than the private payroll adds economists predict from the Labor Department’s more comprehensive employment report due on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>根据薪资处理商 ADP 的数据，6 月份私营部门新增就业岗位 692,000 个，轻松超出预期。经济学家在劳工部将于周五发布的更全面的就业报告中补充说，这一数字比私人就业人数高出 9.2 万人。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 210.22 points, or 0.61%, to 34,502.51, the S&amp;P 500 gained 5.7 points, or 0.13%, to 4,297.5 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 24.38 points, or 0.17%, to 14,503.95.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数上涨 210.22 点，或 0.61%，至 34,502.51 点；标普500指数上涨 5.7 点，或 0.13%，至 4,297.5 点；纳斯达克综合指数下跌 24.38 点，或 0.17%，至 14,503.95 点。</blockquote></p><p> Among the 11 major sectors in the S&amp;P, six ended the session higher, with energy enjoying the biggest percentage gain. Real estate was the day’s biggest loser.</p><p><blockquote>在标准普尔的 11 个主要板块中，有 6 个板块收高，其中能源板块涨幅最大。房地产是当天最大的输家。</blockquote></p><p> Boeing Co gained 1.6% after Germany’s defense ministry announced it would buy five of the planemaker’s P-8A maritime control aircraft, coming on the heels of United Airlines unveiling its largest-ever order for new planes.</p><p><blockquote>在德国国防部宣布将购买该飞机制造商的五架 P-8A 海上管制飞机后，波音公司股价上涨了 1.6%。</blockquote></p><p> Walmart jumped 2.7% after announcing on Tuesday that it would start selling a prescription-only insulin analog.</p><p><blockquote>沃尔玛周二宣布将开始销售仅限处方的胰岛素类似物，股价上涨 2.7%。</blockquote></p><p> Micron Technology advanced 2.5% ahead of its quarterly earnings release, but was relatively unchanged in after-hours trading following the chipmaker’s quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>美光科技在发布季度财报前上涨了 2.5%，但在芯片制造商公布季度财报后的盘后交易中股价相对持平。</blockquote></p><p> Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 1.35-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.19-to-1 ratio favored decliners.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所上涨发行量超过下跌发行量，比例为 1.35 比 1；在纳斯达克，1.19 比 1 的比率有利于下跌者。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 posted 20 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 70 new highs and 36 new lows.</p><p><blockquote>标普500创下20个52周新高，没有新低；纳斯达克综合指数创下70个新高和36个新低。</blockquote></p><p> Volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.85 billion shares, compared with the 11.05 billion average over the last 20 trading days.</p><p><blockquote>美国交易所的成交量为 108.5 亿股，而过去 20 个交易日的平均成交量为 110.5 亿股。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks/sp-500-notches-fifth-straight-record-closing-high-fifth-straight-quarterly-gain-idUSKCN2E619R\">Reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks/sp-500-notches-fifth-straight-record-closing-high-fifth-straight-quarterly-gain-idUSKCN2E619R","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1178516480","content_text":"NEW YORK (Reuters) - The S&P 500 nabbed its fifth straight record closing high on Wednesday as investors ended the month and the quarter by largely shrugging off positive economic data and looking toward Friday’s highly anticipated employment report.\nIn the last session of 2021’s first half, the indexes were languid and range-bound, with the blue-chip Dow posting gains, while the Nasdaq edged lower.\nAll three indexes posted their fifth consecutive quarterly gains, with the S&P rising 8.2%, the Nasdaq advancing 9.5% and the Dow rising 4.6%. The S&P 500 registered its second-best first-half performance since 1998, rising 14.5%.\n“It’s been a good quarter,” said Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth in Fairfield, Connecticut. “As of last night’s close, the S&P has gained more than 14% year-to-date, topping the Dow and the Nasdaq. That indicates that the stock market is having a broad rally.”\nFor the month, the bellwether S&P 500 notched its fifth consecutive advance, while the Dow snapped its four-month winning streak to end slightly lower. The Nasdaq also gained ground in June.\nThis month, investor appetite shifted away from economically sensitive cyclicals in favor of growth stocks.\n“Leading sectors year-to-date are what you’d expect,” Pavlik added. “Energy, financials and industrials, and that speaks to an economic environment that’s in the early stages of a cycle.”\n“(Investors) started the switch back to growth (stocks) after people started to buy in to (Fed Chair Jerome) Powell’s comments that focus on transitory inflation,” Pavlik added.\n“Some of the reopening trades have gotten a bit long in the tooth and that’s leading people back to growth.”\n(Graphic: Growths stocks outperform value in June, narrow YTD gap, )\n“The overall stock market continues to be on a tear, with very consistent gains for quite some time,” said Tim Ghriskey, chief investment strategist at Inverness Counsel in New York. “Valuations, while certainly high by historical standards, have been at a fairly consistent level, benefiting from the economic recovery.”\nThe private sector added 692,000 jobs in June, breezing past expectations, according to payroll processor ADP. The number is 92,000 higher than the private payroll adds economists predict from the Labor Department’s more comprehensive employment report due on Friday.\nThe Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 210.22 points, or 0.61%, to 34,502.51, the S&P 500 gained 5.7 points, or 0.13%, to 4,297.5 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 24.38 points, or 0.17%, to 14,503.95.\nAmong the 11 major sectors in the S&P, six ended the session higher, with energy enjoying the biggest percentage gain. Real estate was the day’s biggest loser.\nBoeing Co gained 1.6% after Germany’s defense ministry announced it would buy five of the planemaker’s P-8A maritime control aircraft, coming on the heels of United Airlines unveiling its largest-ever order for new planes.\nWalmart jumped 2.7% after announcing on Tuesday that it would start selling a prescription-only insulin analog.\nMicron Technology advanced 2.5% ahead of its quarterly earnings release, but was relatively unchanged in after-hours trading following the chipmaker’s quarterly results.\nAdvancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 1.35-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.19-to-1 ratio favored decliners.\nThe S&P 500 posted 20 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 70 new highs and 36 new lows.\nVolume on U.S. exchanges was 10.85 billion shares, compared with the 11.05 billion average over the last 20 trading days.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2551,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":699318899,"gmtCreate":1639748527563,"gmtModify":1639748528170,"author":{"id":"3584755094881851","authorId":"3584755094881851","name":"MewCat","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584755094881851","idStr":"3584755094881851"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Window dressing is coming, grab the chance :)","listText":"Window dressing is coming, grab the chance :)","text":"Window dressing is coming, grab the chance :)","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/699318899","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3463,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}