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2021-09-09

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2021-09-08

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Bitcoin Endured a Rocky Day. What's Behind the Selloff<blockquote>比特币经历了艰难的一天。抛售背后是什么</blockquote>

2021-08-27

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2021-08-26

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S&P 500 opens flat near a record as investors await Fed summit<blockquote>投资者等待美联储峰会，标普500开盘持平，接近历史新高</blockquote>

2021-08-24

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2021-08-13

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Biolase Stock Is Trading Higher On Better Than Expected Q2 Earnings<blockquote>Biolase股票因第二季度盈利好于预期而走高</blockquote>

2021-08-07

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2021-08-05

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Airline shares, Carnival stocks rally in morning trading<blockquote>航空股、嘉年华股早盘上涨</blockquote>

2021-08-05

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2021-08-03

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Eli Lilly Earnings Missed Expectations. Why the Stock Is Soaring<blockquote>礼来公司盈利未达预期。股票为何飙升</blockquote>

2021-07-30

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2021-07-29

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2021-07-27

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2021-07-25

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Will NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks<blockquote>蔚来股票会追随特斯拉的脚步吗？这两只电动汽车股票之间需要考虑什么</blockquote>

2021-07-23

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2021-07-23

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Amazon Stock: This Is How Subscriptions Matter<blockquote>亚马逊股票：这就是订阅的重要性</blockquote>

2021-07-22

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How to invest as the Delta variant takes hold<blockquote>随着德尔塔变异毒株的到来如何投资</blockquote>

2021-07-21

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2021-07-19

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Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be "Hotter But Shorter" Than Usual<blockquote>摩根士丹利：本轮周期将比往常“更热但更短”</blockquote>

2021-07-18

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What's Behind the Selloff<blockquote>比特币经历了艰难的一天。抛售背后是什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154837170","media":"Barron's","summary":"It should have been a happy day for Bitcoin, but it’s turned into a rout.Bitcoin  was trading was around $47,000 on Tuesday afternoon, down 9% in the last 24 hours, after dipping down to $42,900 this morning. Bitcoin had been above $52,800 before the selloff.Other cryptos were also ailing, including Ethereum , down 12% to $3,460.The selloff may reflect profit-taking after prices started rising in late July. Bitcoin had gained more than 50% since late July when it traded around $34,000. Ethereum ","content":"<p>It should have been a happy day for Bitcoin, but it’s turned into a rout.</p><p><blockquote>对比特币来说，这应该是快乐的一天，但它变成了一场溃败。</blockquote></p><p> Bitcoin (ticker: BTC) was trading was around $47,000 on Tuesday afternoon, down 9% in the last 24 hours, after dipping down to $42,900 this morning. Bitcoin had been above $52,800 before the selloff.</p><p><blockquote>比特币（股票代码：BTC）周二下午的交易价格约为47,000美元，在今天上午跌至42,900美元后，过去24小时内下跌9%。在抛售之前，比特币股价已高于52,800美元。</blockquote></p><p> Other cryptos were also ailing, including Ethereum (ETH), down 12% to $3,460.</p><p><blockquote>其他加密货币也表现不佳，包括以太币(ETH)，下跌12%至3,460美元。</blockquote></p><p> The selloff may reflect profit-taking after prices started rising in late July. Bitcoin had gained more than 50% since late July when it traded around $34,000. Ethereum has also been flying, following a technical upgrade in its underlying blockchain network.</p><p><blockquote>抛售可能反映了7月下旬价格开始上涨后的获利了结。自7月底交易价格约为34,000美元以来，比特币已上涨超过50%。在对其底层区块链网络进行技术升级后，以太币也一直在飞行。</blockquote></p><p> The down day may also reflect a “sell the news” dynamic after El Salvador became the first country to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender, alongside the dollar– the country’s other official currency.</p><p><blockquote>下跌的一天也可能反映了萨尔瓦多成为第一个采用比特币作为法定货币以及该国另一种官方货币美元的国家后的“抛售新闻”动态。</blockquote></p><p> Merchants in El Salvador are now supposed to accept Bitcoin for goods and services. Citizens have been promised $30 worth of Bitcoin in their digital wallets by the government. McDonald’s has started accepting Bitcoin in El Salvador, according to Reuters. And the government of president Nayib Bukele has been buying Bitcoin, including at least $20 million worth, ahead of the official launch.</p><p><blockquote>萨尔瓦多的商人现在应该接受商品和服务的比特币。政府向公民承诺在他们的数字钱包中提供价值30美元的比特币。据路透社报道，麦当劳已经开始在萨尔瓦多接受比特币。在正式启动之前，纳伊布·布克莱总统的政府一直在购买比特币，其中包括价值至少2000万美元的资金。</blockquote></p><p> But El Salvador’s crypto experiment isn’t sitting well with organizations like the International Monetary Fund and World Bank, which have warned El Salvador that its adoption as legal tender could imperil financial stability. Other countries are cracking down on crypto transactions, mining, and exchanges, indicating that El Salvador may be an outlier for now.</p><p><blockquote>但萨尔瓦多的加密货币实验并没有得到国际货币基金组织和世界银行等组织的认可，这些组织警告萨尔瓦多，将其作为法定货币可能会危及金融稳定。其他国家正在打击加密货币交易、采矿和交易所，这表明萨尔瓦多目前可能是一个例外。</blockquote></p><p> Crypto watchers are also blaming technical factors for the market downturn. Assuming prices don’t suddenly surge, Bitcoin is now in for “outside-down” day, says Katie Stockton, founder and managing partner of Fairlead Strategies, a crypto-trading research firm. The means Bitcoin is trading in a wider range and headed for a lower close than yesterday (assuming a 5 p.m. cutoff, though it trades 24 hours).</p><p><blockquote>加密货币观察人士也将市场低迷归咎于技术因素。加密货币交易研究公司Fairlead Strategies的创始人兼管理合伙人Katie Stockton表示，假设价格不会突然飙升，比特币现在将迎来“外部下跌”的一天。这意味着比特币的交易范围更广，收盘价将低于昨天（假设下午5点截止，尽管它24小时交易）。</blockquote></p><p> “The implications are for additional consolidation,” she says. So far, the selloff looks like a minor setback, she adds, since Bitcoin hasn’t breached its 50-day moving average around $44,000, which is its next support level.</p><p><blockquote>“这意味着进一步整合，”她说。她补充道，到目前为止，抛售看起来像是一个小挫折，因为比特币尚未突破44,000美元左右的50日移动平均线，这是下一个支撑位。</blockquote></p><p> “A breach of $44,000 isn’t a breakdown,” she says. “It’s a test of the 50-day moving average. “There is strong support for Bitcoin and most crytpos pretty close to their current lows.”</p><p><blockquote>“违反44,000美元并不是崩溃，”她说。“这是对50日移动平均线的测试。“比特币和大多数加密货币都非常接近当前低点，”</blockquote></p><p> Other factors that may have contributed to the selloff include reports of outages and “unscheduled maintenance” at Bitfinix, a leading crypto exchange. Coinbase Global (ticker: COIN) also experienced a spike in outages around noon, according to Downdetector.</p><p><blockquote>其他可能导致抛售的因素包括领先的加密货币交易所Bitfinix的停电和“计划外维护”报告。据Downdetector称，Coinbase Global（股票代码：COIN）中午左右也经历了停电高峰。</blockquote></p><p> Even if prices stabilize from here, it’s a reminder that Bitcoin and other cryptos remain vulnerable to rapid-fire declines. While you may be able to buy a Big Mac with a sliver of Bitcoin in San Salvador, you may be better off keeping it in your digital wallet–or not–depending on the time of day.</p><p><blockquote>即使价格从这里稳定下来，这也提醒人们，比特币和其他加密货币仍然容易受到快速下跌的影响。虽然你可以在圣萨尔瓦多买到一个巨无霸和一片比特币，但你最好把它放在你的数字钱包里——或者不放在——这取决于一天中的不同时间。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bitcoin Endured a Rocky Day. 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What's Behind the Selloff<blockquote>比特币经历了艰难的一天。抛售背后是什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barron's</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-08 16:48</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>It should have been a happy day for Bitcoin, but it’s turned into a rout.</p><p><blockquote>对比特币来说，这应该是快乐的一天，但它变成了一场溃败。</blockquote></p><p> Bitcoin (ticker: BTC) was trading was around $47,000 on Tuesday afternoon, down 9% in the last 24 hours, after dipping down to $42,900 this morning. Bitcoin had been above $52,800 before the selloff.</p><p><blockquote>比特币（股票代码：BTC）周二下午的交易价格约为47,000美元，在今天上午跌至42,900美元后，过去24小时内下跌9%。在抛售之前，比特币股价已高于52,800美元。</blockquote></p><p> Other cryptos were also ailing, including Ethereum (ETH), down 12% to $3,460.</p><p><blockquote>其他加密货币也表现不佳，包括以太币(ETH)，下跌12%至3,460美元。</blockquote></p><p> The selloff may reflect profit-taking after prices started rising in late July. Bitcoin had gained more than 50% since late July when it traded around $34,000. Ethereum has also been flying, following a technical upgrade in its underlying blockchain network.</p><p><blockquote>抛售可能反映了7月下旬价格开始上涨后的获利了结。自7月底交易价格约为34,000美元以来，比特币已上涨超过50%。在对其底层区块链网络进行技术升级后，以太币也一直在飞行。</blockquote></p><p> The down day may also reflect a “sell the news” dynamic after El Salvador became the first country to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender, alongside the dollar– the country’s other official currency.</p><p><blockquote>下跌的一天也可能反映了萨尔瓦多成为第一个采用比特币作为法定货币以及该国另一种官方货币美元的国家后的“抛售新闻”动态。</blockquote></p><p> Merchants in El Salvador are now supposed to accept Bitcoin for goods and services. Citizens have been promised $30 worth of Bitcoin in their digital wallets by the government. McDonald’s has started accepting Bitcoin in El Salvador, according to Reuters. And the government of president Nayib Bukele has been buying Bitcoin, including at least $20 million worth, ahead of the official launch.</p><p><blockquote>萨尔瓦多的商人现在应该接受商品和服务的比特币。政府向公民承诺在他们的数字钱包中提供价值30美元的比特币。据路透社报道，麦当劳已经开始在萨尔瓦多接受比特币。在正式启动之前，纳伊布·布克莱总统的政府一直在购买比特币，其中包括价值至少2000万美元的资金。</blockquote></p><p> But El Salvador’s crypto experiment isn’t sitting well with organizations like the International Monetary Fund and World Bank, which have warned El Salvador that its adoption as legal tender could imperil financial stability. Other countries are cracking down on crypto transactions, mining, and exchanges, indicating that El Salvador may be an outlier for now.</p><p><blockquote>但萨尔瓦多的加密货币实验并没有得到国际货币基金组织和世界银行等组织的认可，这些组织警告萨尔瓦多，将其作为法定货币可能会危及金融稳定。其他国家正在打击加密货币交易、采矿和交易所，这表明萨尔瓦多目前可能是一个例外。</blockquote></p><p> Crypto watchers are also blaming technical factors for the market downturn. Assuming prices don’t suddenly surge, Bitcoin is now in for “outside-down” day, says Katie Stockton, founder and managing partner of Fairlead Strategies, a crypto-trading research firm. The means Bitcoin is trading in a wider range and headed for a lower close than yesterday (assuming a 5 p.m. cutoff, though it trades 24 hours).</p><p><blockquote>加密货币观察人士也将市场低迷归咎于技术因素。加密货币交易研究公司Fairlead Strategies的创始人兼管理合伙人Katie Stockton表示，假设价格不会突然飙升，比特币现在将迎来“外部下跌”的一天。这意味着比特币的交易范围更广，收盘价将低于昨天（假设下午5点截止，尽管它24小时交易）。</blockquote></p><p> “The implications are for additional consolidation,” she says. So far, the selloff looks like a minor setback, she adds, since Bitcoin hasn’t breached its 50-day moving average around $44,000, which is its next support level.</p><p><blockquote>“这意味着进一步整合，”她说。她补充道，到目前为止，抛售看起来像是一个小挫折，因为比特币尚未突破44,000美元左右的50日移动平均线，这是下一个支撑位。</blockquote></p><p> “A breach of $44,000 isn’t a breakdown,” she says. “It’s a test of the 50-day moving average. “There is strong support for Bitcoin and most crytpos pretty close to their current lows.”</p><p><blockquote>“违反44,000美元并不是崩溃，”她说。“这是对50日移动平均线的测试。“比特币和大多数加密货币都非常接近当前低点，”</blockquote></p><p> Other factors that may have contributed to the selloff include reports of outages and “unscheduled maintenance” at Bitfinix, a leading crypto exchange. Coinbase Global (ticker: COIN) also experienced a spike in outages around noon, according to Downdetector.</p><p><blockquote>其他可能导致抛售的因素包括领先的加密货币交易所Bitfinix的停电和“计划外维护”报告。据Downdetector称，Coinbase Global（股票代码：COIN）中午左右也经历了停电高峰。</blockquote></p><p> Even if prices stabilize from here, it’s a reminder that Bitcoin and other cryptos remain vulnerable to rapid-fire declines. While you may be able to buy a Big Mac with a sliver of Bitcoin in San Salvador, you may be better off keeping it in your digital wallet–or not–depending on the time of day.</p><p><blockquote>即使价格从这里稳定下来，这也提醒人们，比特币和其他加密货币仍然容易受到快速下跌的影响。虽然你可以在圣萨尔瓦多买到一个巨无霸和一片比特币，但你最好把它放在你的数字钱包里——或者不放在——这取决于一天中的不同时间。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/bitcoin-crypto-prices-drop-today-51631048243?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Barron's</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GBTC":"比特币ETF-Grayscale","COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/bitcoin-crypto-prices-drop-today-51631048243?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154837170","content_text":"It should have been a happy day for Bitcoin, but it’s turned into a rout.\nBitcoin (ticker: BTC) was trading was around $47,000 on Tuesday afternoon, down 9% in the last 24 hours, after dipping down to $42,900 this morning. Bitcoin had been above $52,800 before the selloff.\nOther cryptos were also ailing, including Ethereum (ETH), down 12% to $3,460.\nThe selloff may reflect profit-taking after prices started rising in late July. Bitcoin had gained more than 50% since late July when it traded around $34,000. Ethereum has also been flying, following a technical upgrade in its underlying blockchain network.\nThe down day may also reflect a “sell the news” dynamic after El Salvador became the first country to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender, alongside the dollar– the country’s other official currency.\nMerchants in El Salvador are now supposed to accept Bitcoin for goods and services. Citizens have been promised $30 worth of Bitcoin in their digital wallets by the government. McDonald’s has started accepting Bitcoin in El Salvador, according to Reuters. And the government of president Nayib Bukele has been buying Bitcoin, including at least $20 million worth, ahead of the official launch.\nBut El Salvador’s crypto experiment isn’t sitting well with organizations like the International Monetary Fund and World Bank, which have warned El Salvador that its adoption as legal tender could imperil financial stability. Other countries are cracking down on crypto transactions, mining, and exchanges, indicating that El Salvador may be an outlier for now.\nCrypto watchers are also blaming technical factors for the market downturn. Assuming prices don’t suddenly surge, Bitcoin is now in for “outside-down” day, says Katie Stockton, founder and managing partner of Fairlead Strategies, a crypto-trading research firm. The means Bitcoin is trading in a wider range and headed for a lower close than yesterday (assuming a 5 p.m. cutoff, though it trades 24 hours).\n“The implications are for additional consolidation,” she says. So far, the selloff looks like a minor setback, she adds, since Bitcoin hasn’t breached its 50-day moving average around $44,000, which is its next support level.\n“A breach of $44,000 isn’t a breakdown,” she says. “It’s a test of the 50-day moving average. “There is strong support for Bitcoin and most crytpos pretty close to their current lows.”\nOther factors that may have contributed to the selloff include reports of outages and “unscheduled maintenance” at Bitfinix, a leading crypto exchange. Coinbase Global (ticker: COIN) also experienced a spike in outages around noon, according to Downdetector.\nEven if prices stabilize from here, it’s a reminder that Bitcoin and other cryptos remain vulnerable to rapid-fire declines. While you may be able to buy a Big Mac with a sliver of Bitcoin in San Salvador, you may be better off keeping it in your digital wallet–or not–depending on the time of day.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GBTC":0.9,"COIN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1340,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":819521400,"gmtCreate":1630078755100,"gmtModify":1704955711315,"author":{"id":"3584416898370318","authorId":"3584416898370318","name":"Yt64","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9824cc246c21cbb20e1583ad744abef8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584416898370318","authorIdStr":"3584416898370318"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like and comment thx","listText":"Pls like and comment thx","text":"Pls like and comment thx","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/819521400","repostId":"1123342356","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1858,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":810533656,"gmtCreate":1629985723675,"gmtModify":1704954180013,"author":{"id":"3584416898370318","authorId":"3584416898370318","name":"Yt64","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9824cc246c21cbb20e1583ad744abef8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584416898370318","authorIdStr":"3584416898370318"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like and comment thx","listText":"Pls like and comment thx","text":"Pls like and comment thx","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/810533656","repostId":"1120391898","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1120391898","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1629984746,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1120391898?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-26 21:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"S&P 500 opens flat near a record as investors await Fed summit<blockquote>投资者等待美联储峰会，标普500开盘持平，接近历史新高</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120391898","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"The S&P 500 was little changed Thursday morning, following the benchmark's rally above the 4,500 lev","content":"<p>The S&amp;P 500 was little changed Thursday morning, following the benchmark's rally above the 4,500 level for the first time ever in the prior session, as investors await the Federal Reserve's annual symposium on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>周四上午，标普500几乎没有变化，此前该基准指数在前一交易日首次升至4,500点上方，投资者等待周五的美联储年度研讨会。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose about 24 points, or 0.1%. The S&amp;P 500 lost 0.08% and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.09%.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数上涨约24点，涨幅0.1%。标普500下跌0.08%，纳斯达克综合指数下跌0.09%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aeb3e35b07de26deb37e5b218327ded1\" tg-width=\"1038\" tg-height=\"492\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Weekly initial jobless claims&nbsp;came in at 353,000, the Labor Department reported Thursday morning, a slight increase from the prior week’s 349,000. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected 350,000 Americans filed for unemployment last week.</p><p><blockquote>美国劳工部周四上午报告称，每周首次申请失业救济人数为353,000人，较前一周的349,000人略有增加。道琼斯调查的经济学家预计上周有35万美国人申请失业救济。</blockquote></p><p> Economic&nbsp;growth totaled 6.6%&nbsp;in the second quarter, according to the Commerce Department’s second estimate Thursday. That was a slight revision upward from the 6.5% annual increase&nbsp;previously reported&nbsp;but slightly lower than the Dow Jones estimate of 6.7%.</p><p><blockquote>根据商务部周四的第二次估计，第二季度经济增长总计6.6%。这比之前报告的6.5%的年增长率略有上调，但略低于道琼斯6.7%的预期。</blockquote></p><p> The highly anticipated Jackson Hole symposium from the Federal Reserve will be held virtually this year on Friday, with many central bank speakers making remarks to the media beginning Thursday. At the event, central bankers could provide updates on their plan around tapering monetary stimulus.</p><p><blockquote>备受期待的美联储杰克逊霍尔研讨会实际上将于今年周五举行，许多央行发言人将从周四开始向媒体发表讲话。在此次活动中，央行行长可以提供有关缩减货币刺激计划的最新信息。</blockquote></p><p> Esther George, president of the Kansas City Fed, told CNBC Thursday morning that “given the progress we’ve seen,” Fed&nbsp;tapering is “appropriate,”though she didn’t specify when she thinks it should start.</p><p><blockquote>堪萨斯城联储主席埃丝特·乔治(Esther George)周四上午对CNBC表示，“鉴于我们所看到的进展”，美联储缩减购债规模是“适当的”，但她没有具体说明她认为何时应该开始。</blockquote></p><p> “When you look at the job gains we saw last month, the month before, you look at the level of inflation right now, I think it would suggest that the level of accommodation we’re providing right now is probably not needed in this scenario,” she said. “So I would be ready to talk about taper sooner rather than later.”</p><p><blockquote>“当你看看我们上个月、前一个月看到的就业增长，看看现在的通胀水平，我认为这表明我们现在提供的便利水平在这种情况下可能不需要，”她说。“所以我准备好尽早谈论缩减规模。”</blockquote></p><p> Shares of&nbsp;Salesforce&nbsp;rose nearly 4% on&nbsp;fiscal second-quarter earnings&nbsp;and forward guidance that exceeded analysts' estimates.Ulta Beauty&nbsp;rose more than 1% after reporting strong results.</p><p><blockquote>由于第二财季盈利和前瞻性指引超出分析师预期，Salesforce股价上涨近4%。Ulta Beauty在公布强劲业绩后上涨超过1%。</blockquote></p><p> Zoom Video shares jumped more than 5%&nbsp;after Morgan Stanley upgraded the stockand predicted 18% upside.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利上调Zoom Video股票评级并预计上涨18%后，该股股价上涨超过5%。</blockquote></p><p> On&nbsp;Wednesday, the S&amp;P 500 gained 0.22% to close at a record, led by stocks that benefit from the economic reopening like airlines, cruise lines and financials. The 500-stock average crossed the 4,500 threshold for the first time ever on Wednesday, but closed below that level. The benchmark is up 105% from its pandemic low.</p><p><blockquote>周三，标普500上涨0.22%，收于创纪录水平，航空、邮轮和金融股等受益于经济重新开放的股票领涨。周三，500只股票平均指数首次突破4,500点大关，但收盘低于该水平。该基准较大流行低点上涨了105%。</blockquote></p><p> The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.15%, also notching a record close. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 39 points.</p><p><blockquote>纳斯达克综合指数上涨0.15%，也创下收盘纪录。道琼斯工业平均指数上涨39点。</blockquote></p><p> “While we remain believers in the secular bull market for US equities, we have suggested raising some cash in U.S. equities given lower highs (aka bearish divergences) across a variety of indicators, weaker August-October seasonality, the Presidential Cycle moving into its weakest period and bearish signals from margin debt,” wrote Stephen Suttmeier, technical research strategist at Bank of America.</p><p><blockquote>“虽然我们仍然相信美国股市的长期牛市，但鉴于各种指标的高点较低（又称看跌背离）、8月至10月季节性较弱、总统周期进入最弱时期，我们建议在美国股市筹集一些现金。美国银行技术研究策略师斯蒂芬·萨特迈尔（Stephen Suttmeier）写道：“美国股市出现最弱时期以及保证金债务的看跌信号。”</blockquote></p><p> The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose as high as 1.352% Wednesday as concerns about slowing growth from the delta variant eased, hitting its highest level since earlier in the month when it yielded as much as 1.364%.</p><p><blockquote>由于对德尔塔变异毒株增长放缓的担忧缓解，基准10年期国债收益率周三升至1.352%，触及本月早些时候以来的最高水平，当时收益率高达1.364%。</blockquote></p><p> “The 10-year Treasury bond yield has continued rising in recent days and exploded higher in [Wednesday’s] trading, sending a strong message that the Delta variant of Covid may be peaking in the U.S. which should improve confidence, restart economic reopenings, and drive investment flows toward small caps and cyclicals,” said Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at the Leuthold Group.</p><p><blockquote>“最近几天，10年期国债收益率持续上升，并在[周三]交易中大幅走高，发出了一个强烈的信息，即美国的新冠疫情德尔塔变异毒株可能正在见顶，这应该会提振信心，重启经济重新开放，并推动投资流向小盘股和周期性股票，”Leuthold Group首席投资策略师吉姆·保尔森(Jim Paulsen)表示。</blockquote></p><p> Chairman Jerome Powell is slated to make remarks on Friday as part of the Fed’s summit. The Federal Reserve has been purchasing at least $120 billion of bonds per month to curb longer-term interest rates and jumpstart economic growth in reaction to the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>作为美联储峰会的一部分，主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔定于周五发表讲话。美联储每月购买至少1200亿美元的债券，以抑制长期利率并推动经济增长，以应对疫情。</blockquote></p><p> “Expect investors to keep an eye on the Fed’s symposium the rest of this week for any comments about tapering or timing for interest rate hikes,” said Paulsen. “Either unexpected commentary from the Fed or a failure or success in scaling 4500 could bring additional volatility to the stock and bond markets.”</p><p><blockquote>保尔森表示：“预计投资者将密切关注美联储本周剩余时间的研讨会，了解有关缩减或加息时机的任何评论。”“无论是美联储的意外评论，还是突破4500点的失败或成功，都可能给股票和债券市场带来额外的波动。”</blockquote></p><p> Several companies report quarterly earnings on Thursday including&nbsp;Dell Technologies,Gap,HP&nbsp;and&nbsp;Abercrombie &amp; Fitch.</p><p><blockquote>戴尔科技、Gap、惠普和Abercrombie&amp;Fitch等多家公司周四公布了季度收益。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>S&P 500 opens flat near a record as investors await Fed summit<blockquote>投资者等待美联储峰会，标普500开盘持平，接近历史新高</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nS&P 500 opens flat near a record as investors await Fed summit<blockquote>投资者等待美联储峰会，标普500开盘持平，接近历史新高</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-26 21:32</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 was little changed Thursday morning, following the benchmark's rally above the 4,500 level for the first time ever in the prior session, as investors await the Federal Reserve's annual symposium on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>周四上午，标普500几乎没有变化，此前该基准指数在前一交易日首次升至4,500点上方，投资者等待周五的美联储年度研讨会。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose about 24 points, or 0.1%. The S&amp;P 500 lost 0.08% and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.09%.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数上涨约24点，涨幅0.1%。标普500下跌0.08%，纳斯达克综合指数下跌0.09%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aeb3e35b07de26deb37e5b218327ded1\" tg-width=\"1038\" tg-height=\"492\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Weekly initial jobless claims&nbsp;came in at 353,000, the Labor Department reported Thursday morning, a slight increase from the prior week’s 349,000. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected 350,000 Americans filed for unemployment last week.</p><p><blockquote>美国劳工部周四上午报告称，每周首次申请失业救济人数为353,000人，较前一周的349,000人略有增加。道琼斯调查的经济学家预计上周有35万美国人申请失业救济。</blockquote></p><p> Economic&nbsp;growth totaled 6.6%&nbsp;in the second quarter, according to the Commerce Department’s second estimate Thursday. That was a slight revision upward from the 6.5% annual increase&nbsp;previously reported&nbsp;but slightly lower than the Dow Jones estimate of 6.7%.</p><p><blockquote>根据商务部周四的第二次估计，第二季度经济增长总计6.6%。这比之前报告的6.5%的年增长率略有上调，但略低于道琼斯6.7%的预期。</blockquote></p><p> The highly anticipated Jackson Hole symposium from the Federal Reserve will be held virtually this year on Friday, with many central bank speakers making remarks to the media beginning Thursday. At the event, central bankers could provide updates on their plan around tapering monetary stimulus.</p><p><blockquote>备受期待的美联储杰克逊霍尔研讨会实际上将于今年周五举行，许多央行发言人将从周四开始向媒体发表讲话。在此次活动中，央行行长可以提供有关缩减货币刺激计划的最新信息。</blockquote></p><p> Esther George, president of the Kansas City Fed, told CNBC Thursday morning that “given the progress we’ve seen,” Fed&nbsp;tapering is “appropriate,”though she didn’t specify when she thinks it should start.</p><p><blockquote>堪萨斯城联储主席埃丝特·乔治(Esther George)周四上午对CNBC表示，“鉴于我们所看到的进展”，美联储缩减购债规模是“适当的”，但她没有具体说明她认为何时应该开始。</blockquote></p><p> “When you look at the job gains we saw last month, the month before, you look at the level of inflation right now, I think it would suggest that the level of accommodation we’re providing right now is probably not needed in this scenario,” she said. “So I would be ready to talk about taper sooner rather than later.”</p><p><blockquote>“当你看看我们上个月、前一个月看到的就业增长，看看现在的通胀水平，我认为这表明我们现在提供的便利水平在这种情况下可能不需要，”她说。“所以我准备好尽早谈论缩减规模。”</blockquote></p><p> Shares of&nbsp;Salesforce&nbsp;rose nearly 4% on&nbsp;fiscal second-quarter earnings&nbsp;and forward guidance that exceeded analysts' estimates.Ulta Beauty&nbsp;rose more than 1% after reporting strong results.</p><p><blockquote>由于第二财季盈利和前瞻性指引超出分析师预期，Salesforce股价上涨近4%。Ulta Beauty在公布强劲业绩后上涨超过1%。</blockquote></p><p> Zoom Video shares jumped more than 5%&nbsp;after Morgan Stanley upgraded the stockand predicted 18% upside.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利上调Zoom Video股票评级并预计上涨18%后，该股股价上涨超过5%。</blockquote></p><p> On&nbsp;Wednesday, the S&amp;P 500 gained 0.22% to close at a record, led by stocks that benefit from the economic reopening like airlines, cruise lines and financials. The 500-stock average crossed the 4,500 threshold for the first time ever on Wednesday, but closed below that level. The benchmark is up 105% from its pandemic low.</p><p><blockquote>周三，标普500上涨0.22%，收于创纪录水平，航空、邮轮和金融股等受益于经济重新开放的股票领涨。周三，500只股票平均指数首次突破4,500点大关，但收盘低于该水平。该基准较大流行低点上涨了105%。</blockquote></p><p> The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.15%, also notching a record close. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 39 points.</p><p><blockquote>纳斯达克综合指数上涨0.15%，也创下收盘纪录。道琼斯工业平均指数上涨39点。</blockquote></p><p> “While we remain believers in the secular bull market for US equities, we have suggested raising some cash in U.S. equities given lower highs (aka bearish divergences) across a variety of indicators, weaker August-October seasonality, the Presidential Cycle moving into its weakest period and bearish signals from margin debt,” wrote Stephen Suttmeier, technical research strategist at Bank of America.</p><p><blockquote>“虽然我们仍然相信美国股市的长期牛市，但鉴于各种指标的高点较低（又称看跌背离）、8月至10月季节性较弱、总统周期进入最弱时期，我们建议在美国股市筹集一些现金。美国银行技术研究策略师斯蒂芬·萨特迈尔（Stephen Suttmeier）写道：“美国股市出现最弱时期以及保证金债务的看跌信号。”</blockquote></p><p> The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose as high as 1.352% Wednesday as concerns about slowing growth from the delta variant eased, hitting its highest level since earlier in the month when it yielded as much as 1.364%.</p><p><blockquote>由于对德尔塔变异毒株增长放缓的担忧缓解，基准10年期国债收益率周三升至1.352%，触及本月早些时候以来的最高水平，当时收益率高达1.364%。</blockquote></p><p> “The 10-year Treasury bond yield has continued rising in recent days and exploded higher in [Wednesday’s] trading, sending a strong message that the Delta variant of Covid may be peaking in the U.S. which should improve confidence, restart economic reopenings, and drive investment flows toward small caps and cyclicals,” said Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at the Leuthold Group.</p><p><blockquote>“最近几天，10年期国债收益率持续上升，并在[周三]交易中大幅走高，发出了一个强烈的信息，即美国的新冠疫情德尔塔变异毒株可能正在见顶，这应该会提振信心，重启经济重新开放，并推动投资流向小盘股和周期性股票，”Leuthold Group首席投资策略师吉姆·保尔森(Jim Paulsen)表示。</blockquote></p><p> Chairman Jerome Powell is slated to make remarks on Friday as part of the Fed’s summit. The Federal Reserve has been purchasing at least $120 billion of bonds per month to curb longer-term interest rates and jumpstart economic growth in reaction to the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>作为美联储峰会的一部分，主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔定于周五发表讲话。美联储每月购买至少1200亿美元的债券，以抑制长期利率并推动经济增长，以应对疫情。</blockquote></p><p> “Expect investors to keep an eye on the Fed’s symposium the rest of this week for any comments about tapering or timing for interest rate hikes,” said Paulsen. “Either unexpected commentary from the Fed or a failure or success in scaling 4500 could bring additional volatility to the stock and bond markets.”</p><p><blockquote>保尔森表示：“预计投资者将密切关注美联储本周剩余时间的研讨会，了解有关缩减或加息时机的任何评论。”“无论是美联储的意外评论，还是突破4500点的失败或成功，都可能给股票和债券市场带来额外的波动。”</blockquote></p><p> Several companies report quarterly earnings on Thursday including&nbsp;Dell Technologies,Gap,HP&nbsp;and&nbsp;Abercrombie &amp; Fitch.</p><p><blockquote>戴尔科技、Gap、惠普和Abercrombie&amp;Fitch等多家公司周四公布了季度收益。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120391898","content_text":"The S&P 500 was little changed Thursday morning, following the benchmark's rally above the 4,500 level for the first time ever in the prior session, as investors await the Federal Reserve's annual symposium on Friday.\nThe Dow Jones Industrial Average rose about 24 points, or 0.1%. The S&P 500 lost 0.08% and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.09%.\n\nWeekly initial jobless claims came in at 353,000, the Labor Department reported Thursday morning, a slight increase from the prior week’s 349,000. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected 350,000 Americans filed for unemployment last week.\nEconomic growth totaled 6.6% in the second quarter, according to the Commerce Department’s second estimate Thursday. That was a slight revision upward from the 6.5% annual increase previously reported but slightly lower than the Dow Jones estimate of 6.7%.\nThe highly anticipated Jackson Hole symposium from the Federal Reserve will be held virtually this year on Friday, with many central bank speakers making remarks to the media beginning Thursday. At the event, central bankers could provide updates on their plan around tapering monetary stimulus.\nEsther George, president of the Kansas City Fed, told CNBC Thursday morning that “given the progress we’ve seen,” Fed tapering is “appropriate,”though she didn’t specify when she thinks it should start.\n“When you look at the job gains we saw last month, the month before, you look at the level of inflation right now, I think it would suggest that the level of accommodation we’re providing right now is probably not needed in this scenario,” she said. “So I would be ready to talk about taper sooner rather than later.”\nShares of Salesforce rose nearly 4% on fiscal second-quarter earnings and forward guidance that exceeded analysts' estimates.Ulta Beauty rose more than 1% after reporting strong results.\nZoom Video shares jumped more than 5% after Morgan Stanley upgraded the stockand predicted 18% upside.\nOn Wednesday, the S&P 500 gained 0.22% to close at a record, led by stocks that benefit from the economic reopening like airlines, cruise lines and financials. The 500-stock average crossed the 4,500 threshold for the first time ever on Wednesday, but closed below that level. The benchmark is up 105% from its pandemic low.\nThe Nasdaq Composite rose 0.15%, also notching a record close. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 39 points.\n“While we remain believers in the secular bull market for US equities, we have suggested raising some cash in U.S. equities given lower highs (aka bearish divergences) across a variety of indicators, weaker August-October seasonality, the Presidential Cycle moving into its weakest period and bearish signals from margin debt,” wrote Stephen Suttmeier, technical research strategist at Bank of America.\nThe yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose as high as 1.352% Wednesday as concerns about slowing growth from the delta variant eased, hitting its highest level since earlier in the month when it yielded as much as 1.364%.\n“The 10-year Treasury bond yield has continued rising in recent days and exploded higher in [Wednesday’s] trading, sending a strong message that the Delta variant of Covid may be peaking in the U.S. which should improve confidence, restart economic reopenings, and drive investment flows toward small caps and cyclicals,” said Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at the Leuthold Group.\nChairman Jerome Powell is slated to make remarks on Friday as part of the Fed’s summit. The Federal Reserve has been purchasing at least $120 billion of bonds per month to curb longer-term interest rates and jumpstart economic growth in reaction to the pandemic.\n“Expect investors to keep an eye on the Fed’s symposium the rest of this week for any comments about tapering or timing for interest rate hikes,” said Paulsen. “Either unexpected commentary from the Fed or a failure or success in scaling 4500 could bring additional volatility to the stock and bond markets.”\nSeveral companies report quarterly earnings on Thursday including Dell Technologies,Gap,HP and Abercrombie & Fitch.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2013,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":834272477,"gmtCreate":1629811034999,"gmtModify":1631888790611,"author":{"id":"3584416898370318","authorId":"3584416898370318","name":"Yt64","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9824cc246c21cbb20e1583ad744abef8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584416898370318","authorIdStr":"3584416898370318"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like and comment","listText":"Pls like and comment","text":"Pls like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/834272477","repostId":"1157804050","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1979,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":897958469,"gmtCreate":1628870043651,"gmtModify":1631888790625,"author":{"id":"3584416898370318","authorId":"3584416898370318","name":"Yt64","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9824cc246c21cbb20e1583ad744abef8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584416898370318","authorIdStr":"3584416898370318"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like and comment","listText":"Pls like and comment","text":"Pls like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/897958469","repostId":"2159021829","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2159021829","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1628868159,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2159021829?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-13 23:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Biolase Stock Is Trading Higher On Better Than Expected Q2 Earnings<blockquote>Biolase股票因第二季度盈利好于预期而走高</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2159021829","media":"Benzinga","summary":"\n","content":"<p><ul>  <li><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIOL\">Biolase</a> Inc</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:BIOL) shares are trading higher on strong volume after it&nbsp;reported Q2 sales of $9.1 million, +211% Y/Y, edging out a consensus of $8.31 million.</li>  <li>Over 70% of U.S. laser sales came from new customers, continuing a positive trend, and more than 35% of U.S. Waterlase sales came from dental specialists.</li>  <li>Net revenue was 6% higher than the pre-pandemic revenues during the second quarter of 2019.</li>  <li>U.S. and international revenue increased 167% and 340%, respectively, as more dental practices were operating during Q2 than Q2 FY20 due to the pandemic.</li>  <li>Laser system sales increased 424%. Consumables and other revenue increased 173%.</li>  <li>The gross margin expanded to 44% from 32% a year ago due to higher revenue, favorable revenue mix, and higher average selling prices.</li>  <li>During Q2, Biolase was able to break even compared to an EPS loss of $(0.12) a year ago. Cash and cash equivalents totaled $37.1 million.</li>  <li>Biolase forecasts Q3 revenue to be significantly above Q3 FY20 despite the pent-up demand it experienced in last year's Q3 as procedure volume dramatically improved from historically low levels in the 2020 second quarter.</li>  <li><b>Price Action:</b>&nbsp;BIOL shares are up 31.4% at $0.83 during the market session on the last check Friday.</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIOL\">生物酶</a>Inc</b>（纳斯达克：BIOL）公布第二季度销售额为910万美元，同比增长211%，超过市场普遍预期的831万美元，股价因成交量强劲而走高。</li><li>超过70%的美国激光销售额来自新客户，延续了积极的趋势，超过35%的美国Waterlase销售额来自牙科专家。</li><li>2019年第二季度净收入比大流行前高出6%。</li><li>美国和国际收入分别增长了167%和340%，因为受疫情影响，第二季度运营的牙科诊所比2020财年第二季度多。</li><li>激光系统销售额增长424%。耗材及其他收入增长173%。</li><li>由于收入增加、有利的收入组合以及平均售价上涨，毛利率从一年前的32%扩大至44%。</li><li>与一年前每股收益亏损(0.12)美元相比，第二季度Biolase能够实现收支平衡。现金和现金等价物总计3710万美元。</li><li>Biolase预计第三季度收入将显着高于2020财年第三季度，尽管去年第三季度的需求被压抑，因为手术量较2020年第二季度的历史低位大幅改善。</li><li><b>价格走势：</b>周五最后一次检查时，BIOL股价上涨31.4%，至0.83美元。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Biolase Stock Is Trading Higher On Better Than Expected Q2 Earnings<blockquote>Biolase股票因第二季度盈利好于预期而走高</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBiolase Stock Is Trading Higher On Better Than Expected Q2 Earnings<blockquote>Biolase股票因第二季度盈利好于预期而走高</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-13 23:22</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><ul>  <li><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIOL\">Biolase</a> Inc</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:BIOL) shares are trading higher on strong volume after it&nbsp;reported Q2 sales of $9.1 million, +211% Y/Y, edging out a consensus of $8.31 million.</li>  <li>Over 70% of U.S. laser sales came from new customers, continuing a positive trend, and more than 35% of U.S. Waterlase sales came from dental specialists.</li>  <li>Net revenue was 6% higher than the pre-pandemic revenues during the second quarter of 2019.</li>  <li>U.S. and international revenue increased 167% and 340%, respectively, as more dental practices were operating during Q2 than Q2 FY20 due to the pandemic.</li>  <li>Laser system sales increased 424%. Consumables and other revenue increased 173%.</li>  <li>The gross margin expanded to 44% from 32% a year ago due to higher revenue, favorable revenue mix, and higher average selling prices.</li>  <li>During Q2, Biolase was able to break even compared to an EPS loss of $(0.12) a year ago. Cash and cash equivalents totaled $37.1 million.</li>  <li>Biolase forecasts Q3 revenue to be significantly above Q3 FY20 despite the pent-up demand it experienced in last year's Q3 as procedure volume dramatically improved from historically low levels in the 2020 second quarter.</li>  <li><b>Price Action:</b>&nbsp;BIOL shares are up 31.4% at $0.83 during the market session on the last check Friday.</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIOL\">生物酶</a>Inc</b>（纳斯达克：BIOL）公布第二季度销售额为910万美元，同比增长211%，超过市场普遍预期的831万美元，股价因成交量强劲而走高。</li><li>超过70%的美国激光销售额来自新客户，延续了积极的趋势，超过35%的美国Waterlase销售额来自牙科专家。</li><li>2019年第二季度净收入比大流行前高出6%。</li><li>美国和国际收入分别增长了167%和340%，因为受疫情影响，第二季度运营的牙科诊所比2020财年第二季度多。</li><li>激光系统销售额增长424%。耗材及其他收入增长173%。</li><li>由于收入增加、有利的收入组合以及平均售价上涨，毛利率从一年前的32%扩大至44%。</li><li>与一年前每股收益亏损(0.12)美元相比，第二季度Biolase能够实现收支平衡。现金和现金等价物总计3710万美元。</li><li>Biolase预计第三季度收入将显着高于2020财年第三季度，尽管去年第三季度的需求被压抑，因为手术量较2020年第二季度的历史低位大幅改善。</li><li><b>价格走势：</b>周五最后一次检查时，BIOL股价上涨31.4%，至0.83美元。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BIOL":"Biolase","QTWO":"Q2 Holdings Inc"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2159021829","content_text":"Biolase Inc (NASDAQ:BIOL) shares are trading higher on strong volume after it reported Q2 sales of $9.1 million, +211% Y/Y, edging out a consensus of $8.31 million.\nOver 70% of U.S. laser sales came from new customers, continuing a positive trend, and more than 35% of U.S. Waterlase sales came from dental specialists.\nNet revenue was 6% higher than the pre-pandemic revenues during the second quarter of 2019.\nU.S. and international revenue increased 167% and 340%, respectively, as more dental practices were operating during Q2 than Q2 FY20 due to the pandemic.\nLaser system sales increased 424%. Consumables and other revenue increased 173%.\nThe gross margin expanded to 44% from 32% a year ago due to higher revenue, favorable revenue mix, and higher average selling prices.\nDuring Q2, Biolase was able to break even compared to an EPS loss of $(0.12) a year ago. Cash and cash equivalents totaled $37.1 million.\nBiolase forecasts Q3 revenue to be significantly above Q3 FY20 despite the pent-up demand it experienced in last year's Q3 as procedure volume dramatically improved from historically low levels in the 2020 second quarter.\nPrice Action: BIOL shares are up 31.4% at $0.83 during the market session on the last check Friday.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"QTWO":0.9,"BIOL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3179,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":891903818,"gmtCreate":1628312598034,"gmtModify":1631888790635,"author":{"id":"3584416898370318","authorId":"3584416898370318","name":"Yt64","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9824cc246c21cbb20e1583ad744abef8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584416898370318","authorIdStr":"3584416898370318"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like and comment thx","listText":"Pls like and comment thx","text":"Pls like and comment thx","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/891903818","repostId":"1119792130","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1117,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":899635000,"gmtCreate":1628177137800,"gmtModify":1631888790650,"author":{"id":"3584416898370318","authorId":"3584416898370318","name":"Yt64","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9824cc246c21cbb20e1583ad744abef8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584416898370318","authorIdStr":"3584416898370318"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like and comment thx","listText":"Pls like and comment thx","text":"Pls like and comment thx","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/899635000","repostId":"1117772028","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1117772028","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1628174192,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1117772028?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-05 22:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Airline shares, Carnival stocks rally in morning trading<blockquote>航空股、嘉年华股早盘上涨</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117772028","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(Aug&nbsp;5)&nbsp;Airline shares, Carnival stocks&nbsp;rally&nbsp;in&nbsp;morning&nbsp;trading.","content":"<p>(Aug&nbsp;5)&nbsp;Airline shares, Carnival stocks&nbsp;rally&nbsp;in&nbsp;morning&nbsp;trading.</p><p><blockquote>（8月5日）航空股、嘉年华股早盘上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42a38b66aa352091811cb924ece1b676\" tg-width=\"374\" tg-height=\"366\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Airline shares, Carnival stocks rally in morning trading<blockquote>航空股、嘉年华股早盘上涨</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAirline shares, Carnival stocks rally in morning trading<blockquote>航空股、嘉年华股早盘上涨</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-05 22:36</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Aug&nbsp;5)&nbsp;Airline shares, Carnival stocks&nbsp;rally&nbsp;in&nbsp;morning&nbsp;trading.</p><p><blockquote>（8月5日）航空股、嘉年华股早盘上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42a38b66aa352091811cb924ece1b676\" tg-width=\"374\" tg-height=\"366\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117772028","content_text":"(Aug 5) Airline shares, Carnival stocks rally in morning trading.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1566,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":899631391,"gmtCreate":1628177018113,"gmtModify":1631888790656,"author":{"id":"3584416898370318","authorId":"3584416898370318","name":"Yt64","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9824cc246c21cbb20e1583ad744abef8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584416898370318","authorIdStr":"3584416898370318"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like and comment thx","listText":"Pls like and comment thx","text":"Pls like and comment thx","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/899631391","repostId":"1173170520","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1736,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":807107926,"gmtCreate":1628003802165,"gmtModify":1631888790670,"author":{"id":"3584416898370318","authorId":"3584416898370318","name":"Yt64","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9824cc246c21cbb20e1583ad744abef8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584416898370318","authorIdStr":"3584416898370318"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls comment and like thx","listText":"Pls comment and like thx","text":"Pls comment and like thx","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":12,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/807107926","repostId":"1124475692","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1124475692","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628003267,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1124475692?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-03 23:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Eli Lilly Earnings Missed Expectations. Why the Stock Is Soaring<blockquote>礼来公司盈利未达预期。股票为何飙升</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124475692","media":"Barron's","summary":"Drug giant Eli Lilly reported weaker-than-expected earnings but the stock is soaring.\nEli Lilly repo","content":"<p>Drug giant Eli Lilly reported weaker-than-expected earnings but the stock is soaring.</p><p><blockquote>制药巨头礼来公司公布的盈利弱于预期，但股价正在飙升。</blockquote></p><p> Eli Lilly reported a year-over-year leap in second-quarter sales, but much of that rise resulted from the world’s restocking since 2020 lockdowns. Sales still grew a respectable 12%, after adjusting for Covid-19’s impact, while earnings matched Wall Street forecasts.</p><p><blockquote>礼来公司(Eli Lilly)报告称，第二季度销售额同比增长，但这一增长很大程度上是由于自2020年封锁以来全球重新进货。在对Covid-19的影响进行调整后，销售额仍增长了12%，而盈利符合华尔街的预测。</blockquote></p><p> Investors were satisfied. Lilly (ticker: LLY) stock is up 4% to $256.53 in Tuesday morning trading, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 0.1% and the S&amp;P 500 is flat.</p><p><blockquote>投资者很满意。礼来公司（股票代码：LLY）股价在周二早盘交易中上涨4%，至256.53美元，道琼斯工业平均指数上涨0.1%，标普500持平。</blockquote></p><p> All told, Lilly’s second-quarter revenue jumped 23% to $6.7 billion. That’s slightly better than the $6.6 billion consensus forecast among analysts tallied at Sentieo.com. The Indianapolis-based company enjoyed strong volume growth. The strong year-over-year comparison benefited from the subdued level of June 2020 business in the Covid lockdown, which sapped $250 million from last year’s quarter, by Lilly estimate. Adjusting for that unusual weakness, as well as one-time benefits in 2021 like the company’s sale of Chinese rights to its erectile dysfunction treatment Cialis, Lilly said that second-quarter sales grew 12%.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，礼来公司第二季度营收跃升23%至67亿美元。这略好于Sentieo.com统计的分析师一致预测的66亿美元。这家总部位于印第安纳波利斯的公司销量增长强劲。强劲的同比比较得益于2020年6月新冠疫情封锁期间业务水平低迷，据礼来公司估计，该业务比去年季度减少了2.5亿美元。礼来公司表示，考虑到这一不寻常的弱点，以及2021年的一次性收益，例如该公司出售其勃起功能障碍治疗药物Cialis的中国权利，第二季度销售额增长了12%。</blockquote></p><p> The company highlighted the strong growth of newer products, like diabetes drug Trulicity, heart drug Jardiance, and psoriasis treatment Taltz. Before year-end 2021, it hopes to file a marketing application for its investigational treatment for Alzheimer’s disease, donanemab. The Food and Drug Administration’s surprise approval of the Alzheimer’s treatment Aduhelm from Biogen (BIIB) has raised investor expectations for other candidates like Lilly’s.</p><p><blockquote>该公司强调了新产品的强劲增长，如糖尿病药物Trulicity、心脏病药物Jardiance和牛皮癣治疗药物Taltz。该公司希望在2021年底前为其阿尔茨海默病研究治疗药物donanemab提交上市申请。美国食品和药物管理局出人意料地批准了百健(BIIB)的阿尔茨海默氏症治疗药物Aduhelm，提高了投资者对礼来公司等其他候选药物的期望。</blockquote></p><p> Earnings in the second quarter were $1.4 billion, or $1.53 per share. Adjusting for noncash and one-time accruals, Lilly says EPS were $1.83, which represented growth of about 30% from the adjusted number for the year-ago second quarter.</p><p><blockquote>第二季度盈利14亿美元，合每股1.53美元。礼来公司表示，调整非现金和一次性应计费用后，每股收益为1.83美元，比去年第二季度调整后的数字增长约30%。</blockquote></p><p> Antibody treatments for Covid have been a boost to Lilly stock in recent quarters. Second-quarter revenue from those treatments was $149 million. The appearance of variant strains of the Covid-causing SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus is a problem for custom-crafted antibody treatments, however. While Lilly says that its two authorized antibody products show laboratory effectiveness against the virus’ worrisome Delta variant, the U.S. government stopped shipments of the Lilly antibodies in June on evidence that they don’t neutralize the Beta and Gamma variants.</p><p><blockquote>最近几个季度，针对新冠病毒的抗体治疗提振了礼来公司的股价。这些治疗的第二季度收入为1.49亿美元。然而，引起新冠病毒的新型冠状病毒冠状病毒变异株的出现对于定制抗体治疗来说是一个问题。虽然礼来公司表示，其两种授权抗体产品在实验室中对该病毒令人担忧的德尔塔变异毒株有效，但美国政府在6月份停止了礼来公司抗体的运输，因为有证据表明它们不能中和β和γ变种。</blockquote></p><p> So Lilly is writing down the value of some antibody inventories, and the write-down led it to revise its earnings guidance for the 2021 year. Profits this year will come in around a midpoint of about $6.83 a share, says Lilly, instead of the previously guided midpoint of $7.13. Apart from the write-down, and other noncash adjustments, however, the midpoint forecast is unchanged, at $7.90 a share.</p><p><blockquote>因此，礼来公司正在减记一些抗体库存的价值，减记导致其修改了2021年的盈利指引。礼来公司表示，今年的利润将在每股6.83美元左右的中点左右，而不是之前指导的7.13美元的中点。然而，除了减记和其他非现金调整外，中点预测保持不变，为每股7.90美元。</blockquote></p><p> Lilly&nbsp;gained&nbsp;4%&nbsp;in&nbsp;morning&nbsp;trading,&nbsp;reached&nbsp;record&nbsp;high.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfc51bbb6cd284c0017ede89c2bc6240\" tg-width=\"946\" tg-height=\"633\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote>礼来公司早盘上涨4%，创历史新高。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Eli Lilly Earnings Missed Expectations. Why the Stock Is Soaring<blockquote>礼来公司盈利未达预期。股票为何飙升</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEli Lilly Earnings Missed Expectations. Why the Stock Is Soaring<blockquote>礼来公司盈利未达预期。股票为何飙升</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barron's</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-03 23:07</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Drug giant Eli Lilly reported weaker-than-expected earnings but the stock is soaring.</p><p><blockquote>制药巨头礼来公司公布的盈利弱于预期，但股价正在飙升。</blockquote></p><p> Eli Lilly reported a year-over-year leap in second-quarter sales, but much of that rise resulted from the world’s restocking since 2020 lockdowns. Sales still grew a respectable 12%, after adjusting for Covid-19’s impact, while earnings matched Wall Street forecasts.</p><p><blockquote>礼来公司(Eli Lilly)报告称，第二季度销售额同比增长，但这一增长很大程度上是由于自2020年封锁以来全球重新进货。在对Covid-19的影响进行调整后，销售额仍增长了12%，而盈利符合华尔街的预测。</blockquote></p><p> Investors were satisfied. Lilly (ticker: LLY) stock is up 4% to $256.53 in Tuesday morning trading, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 0.1% and the S&amp;P 500 is flat.</p><p><blockquote>投资者很满意。礼来公司（股票代码：LLY）股价在周二早盘交易中上涨4%，至256.53美元，道琼斯工业平均指数上涨0.1%，标普500持平。</blockquote></p><p> All told, Lilly’s second-quarter revenue jumped 23% to $6.7 billion. That’s slightly better than the $6.6 billion consensus forecast among analysts tallied at Sentieo.com. The Indianapolis-based company enjoyed strong volume growth. The strong year-over-year comparison benefited from the subdued level of June 2020 business in the Covid lockdown, which sapped $250 million from last year’s quarter, by Lilly estimate. Adjusting for that unusual weakness, as well as one-time benefits in 2021 like the company’s sale of Chinese rights to its erectile dysfunction treatment Cialis, Lilly said that second-quarter sales grew 12%.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，礼来公司第二季度营收跃升23%至67亿美元。这略好于Sentieo.com统计的分析师一致预测的66亿美元。这家总部位于印第安纳波利斯的公司销量增长强劲。强劲的同比比较得益于2020年6月新冠疫情封锁期间业务水平低迷，据礼来公司估计，该业务比去年季度减少了2.5亿美元。礼来公司表示，考虑到这一不寻常的弱点，以及2021年的一次性收益，例如该公司出售其勃起功能障碍治疗药物Cialis的中国权利，第二季度销售额增长了12%。</blockquote></p><p> The company highlighted the strong growth of newer products, like diabetes drug Trulicity, heart drug Jardiance, and psoriasis treatment Taltz. Before year-end 2021, it hopes to file a marketing application for its investigational treatment for Alzheimer’s disease, donanemab. The Food and Drug Administration’s surprise approval of the Alzheimer’s treatment Aduhelm from Biogen (BIIB) has raised investor expectations for other candidates like Lilly’s.</p><p><blockquote>该公司强调了新产品的强劲增长，如糖尿病药物Trulicity、心脏病药物Jardiance和牛皮癣治疗药物Taltz。该公司希望在2021年底前为其阿尔茨海默病研究治疗药物donanemab提交上市申请。美国食品和药物管理局出人意料地批准了百健(BIIB)的阿尔茨海默氏症治疗药物Aduhelm，提高了投资者对礼来公司等其他候选药物的期望。</blockquote></p><p> Earnings in the second quarter were $1.4 billion, or $1.53 per share. Adjusting for noncash and one-time accruals, Lilly says EPS were $1.83, which represented growth of about 30% from the adjusted number for the year-ago second quarter.</p><p><blockquote>第二季度盈利14亿美元，合每股1.53美元。礼来公司表示，调整非现金和一次性应计费用后，每股收益为1.83美元，比去年第二季度调整后的数字增长约30%。</blockquote></p><p> Antibody treatments for Covid have been a boost to Lilly stock in recent quarters. Second-quarter revenue from those treatments was $149 million. The appearance of variant strains of the Covid-causing SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus is a problem for custom-crafted antibody treatments, however. While Lilly says that its two authorized antibody products show laboratory effectiveness against the virus’ worrisome Delta variant, the U.S. government stopped shipments of the Lilly antibodies in June on evidence that they don’t neutralize the Beta and Gamma variants.</p><p><blockquote>最近几个季度，针对新冠病毒的抗体治疗提振了礼来公司的股价。这些治疗的第二季度收入为1.49亿美元。然而，引起新冠病毒的新型冠状病毒冠状病毒变异株的出现对于定制抗体治疗来说是一个问题。虽然礼来公司表示，其两种授权抗体产品在实验室中对该病毒令人担忧的德尔塔变异毒株有效，但美国政府在6月份停止了礼来公司抗体的运输，因为有证据表明它们不能中和β和γ变种。</blockquote></p><p> So Lilly is writing down the value of some antibody inventories, and the write-down led it to revise its earnings guidance for the 2021 year. Profits this year will come in around a midpoint of about $6.83 a share, says Lilly, instead of the previously guided midpoint of $7.13. Apart from the write-down, and other noncash adjustments, however, the midpoint forecast is unchanged, at $7.90 a share.</p><p><blockquote>因此，礼来公司正在减记一些抗体库存的价值，减记导致其修改了2021年的盈利指引。礼来公司表示，今年的利润将在每股6.83美元左右的中点左右，而不是之前指导的7.13美元的中点。然而，除了减记和其他非现金调整外，中点预测保持不变，为每股7.90美元。</blockquote></p><p> Lilly&nbsp;gained&nbsp;4%&nbsp;in&nbsp;morning&nbsp;trading,&nbsp;reached&nbsp;record&nbsp;high.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfc51bbb6cd284c0017ede89c2bc6240\" tg-width=\"946\" tg-height=\"633\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote>礼来公司早盘上涨4%，创历史新高。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/eli-lilly-stock-earnings-sales-51628001381?siteid=yhoof2\">Barron's</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LLY":"礼来"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/eli-lilly-stock-earnings-sales-51628001381?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124475692","content_text":"Drug giant Eli Lilly reported weaker-than-expected earnings but the stock is soaring.\nEli Lilly reported a year-over-year leap in second-quarter sales, but much of that rise resulted from the world’s restocking since 2020 lockdowns. Sales still grew a respectable 12%, after adjusting for Covid-19’s impact, while earnings matched Wall Street forecasts.\nInvestors were satisfied. Lilly (ticker: LLY) stock is up 4% to $256.53 in Tuesday morning trading, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 0.1% and the S&P 500 is flat.\nAll told, Lilly’s second-quarter revenue jumped 23% to $6.7 billion. That’s slightly better than the $6.6 billion consensus forecast among analysts tallied at Sentieo.com. The Indianapolis-based company enjoyed strong volume growth. The strong year-over-year comparison benefited from the subdued level of June 2020 business in the Covid lockdown, which sapped $250 million from last year’s quarter, by Lilly estimate. Adjusting for that unusual weakness, as well as one-time benefits in 2021 like the company’s sale of Chinese rights to its erectile dysfunction treatment Cialis, Lilly said that second-quarter sales grew 12%.\nThe company highlighted the strong growth of newer products, like diabetes drug Trulicity, heart drug Jardiance, and psoriasis treatment Taltz. Before year-end 2021, it hopes to file a marketing application for its investigational treatment for Alzheimer’s disease, donanemab. The Food and Drug Administration’s surprise approval of the Alzheimer’s treatment Aduhelm from Biogen (BIIB) has raised investor expectations for other candidates like Lilly’s.\nEarnings in the second quarter were $1.4 billion, or $1.53 per share. Adjusting for noncash and one-time accruals, Lilly says EPS were $1.83, which represented growth of about 30% from the adjusted number for the year-ago second quarter.\nAntibody treatments for Covid have been a boost to Lilly stock in recent quarters. Second-quarter revenue from those treatments was $149 million. The appearance of variant strains of the Covid-causing SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus is a problem for custom-crafted antibody treatments, however. While Lilly says that its two authorized antibody products show laboratory effectiveness against the virus’ worrisome Delta variant, the U.S. government stopped shipments of the Lilly antibodies in June on evidence that they don’t neutralize the Beta and Gamma variants.\nSo Lilly is writing down the value of some antibody inventories, and the write-down led it to revise its earnings guidance for the 2021 year. Profits this year will come in around a midpoint of about $6.83 a share, says Lilly, instead of the previously guided midpoint of $7.13. Apart from the write-down, and other noncash adjustments, however, the midpoint forecast is unchanged, at $7.90 a share.\nLilly gained 4% in morning trading, reached record high.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LLY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1798,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":806888115,"gmtCreate":1627649026837,"gmtModify":1631892251471,"author":{"id":"3584416898370318","authorId":"3584416898370318","name":"Yt64","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9824cc246c21cbb20e1583ad744abef8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584416898370318","authorIdStr":"3584416898370318"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like thank you","listText":"Pls like thank you","text":"Pls like thank you","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/806888115","repostId":"1109167679","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":630,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":808694537,"gmtCreate":1627572140729,"gmtModify":1631892251478,"author":{"id":"3584416898370318","authorId":"3584416898370318","name":"Yt64","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9824cc246c21cbb20e1583ad744abef8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584416898370318","authorIdStr":"3584416898370318"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like thx","listText":"Pls like thx","text":"Pls like thx","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/808694537","repostId":"1165497040","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":561,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":803074837,"gmtCreate":1627398888829,"gmtModify":1631892251496,"author":{"id":"3584416898370318","authorId":"3584416898370318","name":"Yt64","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9824cc246c21cbb20e1583ad744abef8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584416898370318","authorIdStr":"3584416898370318"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like and comment thank you","listText":"Pls like and comment thank you","text":"Pls like and comment thank you","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/803074837","repostId":"1180394633","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":423,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":177382145,"gmtCreate":1627180890387,"gmtModify":1631892251501,"author":{"id":"3584416898370318","authorId":"3584416898370318","name":"Yt64","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9824cc246c21cbb20e1583ad744abef8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584416898370318","authorIdStr":"3584416898370318"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like and comment","listText":"Pls like and comment","text":"Pls like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177382145","repostId":"1112927800","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1112927800","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627089375,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1112927800?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-24 09:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Will NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks<blockquote>蔚来股票会追随特斯拉的脚步吗？这两只电动汽车股票之间需要考虑什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112927800","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Let's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.NIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.NIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.Both companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV p","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Let's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.</li>  <li>NIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.</li>  <li>NIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f749c70c8a2af3e18d5f6cecc72bfbb\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"704\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>ipopba/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>让我们来看看今天的蔚来与特斯拉相比如何，蔚来的独特卖点，以及两家公司的相似之处。</li><li>蔚来是一个高增长的选择，相对于特斯拉的估值，它似乎并不太昂贵。</li><li>然而，蔚来并不是一只低风险股票，它可能并不是每个人的好选择。投资者还应该考虑蔚来与传统汽车公司的估值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ipopba/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO, Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading EV players, and has, through an attractive brand and its unique BaaS offering, attracted a lot of interest from consumers and investors. Today, however, the company is still way smaller than Tesla (TSLA), which is currently leading the global EV market. NIO is focused on its home market right now, which was true when Tesla was a smaller company as well, but NIO will try to grab market share in overseas markets as well. Shares are pricing in a lot of growth already, but if NIO can replicate Tesla's success, that could be more than justified.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来公司（蔚来）是中国领先的电动汽车制造商之一，通过其有吸引力的品牌和独特的BaaS产品吸引了消费者和投资者的极大兴趣。然而，如今，该公司仍然比目前引领全球电动汽车市场的特斯拉（TSLA）小得多。蔚来目前专注于国内市场，当特斯拉还是一家较小的公司时也是如此，但蔚来也将试图在海外市场抢占市场份额。股价已经反映了很大的增长，但如果蔚来能够复制特斯拉的成功，这可能是非常合理的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO And TSLA Stock Prices</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来和特斯拉股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Both companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV pureplays rise rapidly. The combination of growing market share for EVs, accommodating policies such as subsidies for EV purchases, and massive monetary stimulus let shares of NIO and TSLA rise rapidly. NIO is up 245% over the last year, while TSLA is up 101% over the same time. Both companies are currently trading below their all-time highs, however, which were hit in early 2021 before market sentiment for EV pureplays cooled to some degree.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，两家公司都受益于人们对电动汽车日益增长的兴趣，这一趋势导致大多数纯电动汽车公司的股价迅速上涨。电动汽车市场份额不断增长、电动汽车购买补贴等宽松政策以及大规模货币刺激措施相结合，让蔚来和特斯拉的股价迅速上涨。蔚来去年上涨了245%，而特斯拉同期上涨了101%。然而，两家公司目前的交易价格均低于2021年初创下的历史高点，随后纯电动汽车的市场情绪在一定程度上降温。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ff5ce865807df85283775d2293b41af\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Taking a quick look at analyst price targets, we see that Tesla is trading almost perfectly in line with the consensus, whereas NIO trades about 30% below the analyst target. If the analyst community is right, then NIO is a substantially better investment right here, as Tesla is not expected to see its shares rise meaningfully over the next year, whereas NIO has significant upside to the analyst price target.</p><p><blockquote>快速浏览一下分析师的目标价，我们发现特斯拉的交易价格几乎完全符合共识，而蔚来的交易价格比分析师目标低约30%。如果分析师界是正确的，那么蔚来是一项更好的投资，因为预计特斯拉的股价明年不会大幅上涨，而蔚来的股价较分析师目标价有显着上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO Similar To Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来和特斯拉相似吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that question depends on what you focus on. There are similarities between the two companies, but there are also differences. One could thus say that, in some ways, the two are similar, but in others, they are not. Let's look at a couple of things:</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案取决于你关注的是什么。两家公司有相似之处，但也有不同之处。因此，人们可以说，在某些方面，两者是相似的，但在另一些方面，它们不是。让我们看几件事：</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Both companies are focused on the EV space, although Tesla has, over the years, been building out a couple of other businesses as well, such as energy storage. Most of Tesla's revenues are generated through selling electric vehicles, which is also how NIO operates. Both companies are focused on the premium segment of EVs, selling higher-priced vehicles that compete with brands such as BMW, Mercedes, and Lexus. Both companies offer a small range of different vehicles, in Tesla's case those are the well-known S, X, 3, and Y, whereas NIO offers a sedan (ET7), and three SUVs (EC6, ES6, ES8). Despite the fact that NIO is a way smaller company today, the model lineups of the two companies do thus not differ too much.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都专注于电动汽车领域，尽管特斯拉多年来也在发展其他一些业务，例如储能。特斯拉的大部分收入来自销售电动汽车，这也是蔚来的运营方式。两家公司都专注于电动汽车的高端市场，销售与宝马、梅赛德斯和雷克萨斯等品牌竞争的高价汽车。两家公司都提供少量不同的车辆，特斯拉是著名的S、X、3和Y，而蔚来则提供一款轿车(ET7)和三款SUV(EC6、ES6、ES8)。尽管蔚来如今是一家规模较小的公司，但两家公司的车型阵容并没有太大差异。</blockquote></p><p> Both companies offer some type of charging infrastructure to their customers, in Tesla's case, that's the Supercharger network, where Tesla owners can charge their cars with up to 250kW, depending on what version of Supercharger is installed. NIO is following a different approach, offering a battery-as-a-service solution to its customers. NIO owners can get their battery switched out to a fully-charged battery at NIO's stations, a process that takes a couple of minutes and is thus significantly quicker compared to the regular EV charging offered by Tesla and other EV players. BaaS thus has advantages when it comes to the time it takes for a charge/swap, but it should be noted that Tesla's Superchargers are way more common around the world compared to NIO's battery-swapping stations. Rolling out that feature in additional markets will require large capital expenditures, but NIO's offering is a unique selling point compared to what all other EV players, including Tesla, are offering. It remains to be seen whether that will ultimately pay off, but this could become a major advantage for NIO as competition in the EV space is heating up.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都向客户提供某种类型的充电基础设施，就特斯拉而言，这就是Supercharger网络，特斯拉车主可以根据安装的Supercharger版本为汽车充电高达250kW。蔚来正在采取不同的方法，为客户提供电池即服务解决方案。蔚来车主可以在蔚来的充电站将电池更换为充满电的电池，这一过程需要几分钟，因此与特斯拉和其他电动汽车厂商提供的常规电动汽车充电相比要快得多。因此，BaaS在充电/交换所需时间方面具有优势，但应该指出的是，与蔚来的电池交换站相比，特斯拉的超级充电站在世界各地更为常见。在其他市场推出该功能将需要大量资本支出，但与包括特斯拉在内的所有其他电动汽车厂商相比，蔚来的产品是一个独特的卖点。这最终是否会得到回报还有待观察，但随着电动汽车领域的竞争加剧，这可能成为蔚来的一大优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Size, growth, and valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>规模、增长和估值</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The two companies differ significantly in size, both when it comes to revenues and vehicle sales, as well as when it comes to the market value of the two companies. NIO has delivered22,000 vehicles in Q2, up 112% year over year, for an annual pace of around 90,000 vehicles. Tesla, meanwhile, has delivered 201,000 vehicles during Q2, up from 103,000 vehicles delivered during Q2 2020. This is strong growth on a year-over-year basis, although slightly below 100%, and thus below the growth rate that NIO is generating for now.</p><p><blockquote>这两家公司的规模差异很大，无论是在收入和汽车销量方面，还是在两家公司的市值方面。蔚来第二季度交付了22,000辆汽车，同比增长112%，年增长率约为90,000辆。与此同时，特斯拉在第二季度交付了201,000辆汽车，高于2020年第二季度的103,000辆汽车。这是一个强劲的同比增长，尽管略低于100%，因此低于蔚来目前的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla delivers around 9x as many vehicles compared to NIO per quarter, when we look at the market capitalizations of the two companies, we see that the ratio is almost exactly the same, as Tesla's market cap of $640 billion is ~9x as high as that of NIO, at $72 billion. At similar growth rates, that would make perfect sense, but it looks like NIO might be the better deal for now, as it trades at a comparable valuation while generating better growth. This will be especially true in the coming quarters, where Tesla's growth is expected to slow down:</p><p><blockquote>与蔚来相比，特斯拉每季度交付的汽车数量约为9倍，当我们查看两家公司的市值时，我们发现这一比例几乎完全相同，因为特斯拉6400亿美元的市值约为9倍。蔚来的市值为720亿美元。在类似的增长率下，这是完全有道理的，但目前看来蔚来可能是更好的交易，因为它的估值相当，同时产生更好的增长。在未来几个季度尤其如此，预计特斯拉的增长将放缓：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a986ea65130206f99961a46ce6cfed55\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Tesla is forecasted to grow its revenue from $49 billion in 2021 to $83 billion in 2023, for an annual growth rate of 30%. NIO, meanwhile, is expected to see its revenue explode upwards from $5.4 billion to $12.8 billion between 2021 and 2023, for an annual growth rate of 54%. NIO is thus expected to grow way faster than Tesla over the next two years, on a relative basis. This shouldn't be a surprise, to be honest, as the law of large numbers dictates that maintaining massive growth rates becomes increasingly hard for a company the bigger it gets, and Tesla seems to have hit that point by now -- adding 50%+ a year to its top line will not be possible forever. This isn't even necessarily Tesla's fault, in fact, many high-quality growth companies have experienced the same. But investors should still consider this important fact -- Tesla's growth in coming years will be less exciting compared to what we have seen in the past, and peers, such as NIO, are growing faster.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉的收入预计将从2021年的490亿美元增长到2023年的830亿美元，年增长率为30%。与此同时，蔚来的收入预计将在2021年至2023年间从54亿美元猛增至128亿美元，年增长率为54%。因此，相对而言，预计未来两年蔚来的增长速度将远远快于特斯拉。老实说，这并不奇怪，因为大数定律表明，对于一家规模越大的公司来说，保持大幅增长率就变得越来越困难，而特斯拉现在似乎已经达到了这一点——每年增加50%以上的收入将永远不可能。这甚至不一定是特斯拉的错，事实上，许多优质成长型公司都经历过同样的事情。但投资者仍应考虑这一重要事实——与我们过去看到的相比，特斯拉未来几年的增长将不那么令人兴奋，而蔚来等同行的增长速度更快。</blockquote></p><p> The same holds true when we take a longer-term view. Revenue estimates for 2025 rest at$22.6 billionfor NIO, up another 80% from the 2023 estimate, and up 320% from what analysts are forecasting for 2021. Tesla, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate revenues of $122.5 billion in 2025 -- a large number, but up by a comparatively weak 48% from 2023, and up by a total of 150% versus 2021. Between 2021 and 2025, NIO will thus 4x its revenue, while Tesla will 2.5x its revenue in the same time span -- a meaningful difference that should, all else equal, allow for a premium valuation for NIO, in the same way Tesla deserves a premium valuation versus legacy players such as Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY).</p><p><blockquote>当我们从长远来看时，情况也是如此。蔚来2025年的收入预期为226亿美元，比2023年的预期再增长80%，比分析师对2021年的预测增长320%。与此同时，特斯拉预计2025年的收入将达到1,225亿美元，这是一个很大的数字，但比2023年增长了48%，比2021年总共增长了150%。因此，在2021年至2025年间，蔚来的收入将增加4倍，而特斯拉的收入将在同一时期增加2.5倍——在其他条件相同的情况下，这是一个有意义的差异，应该允许蔚来获得溢价估值，就像特斯拉一样。与大众汽车（OTCPK：VWAGY）等传统企业相比，它值得获得溢价估值。</blockquote></p><p> Looking at revenue estimates for 2025 relative to how the two companies are valued today, we see that NIO trades at 3.2x 2025 sales, while the 2025 sales multiple for Tesla is 5.2. For a long-term oriented investor, NIO thus seems like the better value today, thanks to the fact that it is trading at a significantly lower sales multiple when we take a look into the future. This does not necessarily mean that NIO is cheap, however, as even a 3.2x 2025 sales multiple is relatively high compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. NIO is looking less expensive than Tesla, however, even if its shares are not cheap on an absolute basis.</p><p><blockquote>相对于两家公司目前的估值来看2025年的收入预期，我们发现蔚来的市盈率为2025年销售额的3.2倍，而特斯拉2025年的销售额倍数为5.2倍。因此，对于长期投资者来说，蔚来今天似乎更有价值，因为当我们展望未来时，它的销售倍数要低得多。然而，这并不一定意味着蔚来很便宜，因为与传统汽车公司的估值相比，即使2025年3.2倍的销售倍数也相对较高。然而，蔚来看起来比特斯拉便宜，尽管其股价绝对并不便宜。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Can NIO Be Worth As Much As Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来能和特斯拉一样值钱吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that depends on what time frame you are looking at. Today, NIO is significantly smaller than Tesla and thus rightfully trades at a way smaller market cap. It should also be noted that there is no guarantee that Tesla's shares are a great example of how an EV company should be valued -- it is, at least, possible that its shares are significantly&nbsp;overpriced&nbsp;today, I personally believe that as well (Note that some will argue that shares are&nbsp;underpriced, which is also among the possibilities, although I do not hold that belief personally).</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案取决于你所关注的时间框架。如今，蔚来的规模明显小于特斯拉，因此其市值也相应地小得多。还应该指出的是，不能保证特斯拉的股票是电动汽车公司应该如何估值的一个很好的例子——至少，它的股票今天有可能被严重高估，我个人也相信这一点（请注意，有些人会认为股票定价过低，这也是一种可能性，尽管我个人并不持有这种信念）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> When we do, for a moment, assume that Tesla is correctly valued today and that EV companies do deserve a market cap in the $600 billion range when they sell about 800,000 vehicles a year, then NIO could eventually hit that as well, although not in the near term. NIO will sell about 90,000 vehicles this year, and that amount should grow to about 400,000 in 2025. If NIO were to grow its sales by 15% a year beyond that point, it could sell around 800,000 cars in 2030, or 9 years from now. If one wants to assume faster growth, the 800,000 vehicles a year line could also be crossed before 2030, e.g. in 2028 or 2029. If we do go with 2030 for now, then NIO could, at a similar deliveries-to-market capitalization ratio to Tesla, be valued at $600+ billion in 2030. In other words, NIO could be worth as much as Tesla (today) in nine years, when we assume that current growth projections are realistic and that a Tesla-like valuation is appropriate. Those are two major ifs, of course, and especially the second point is far from certain, I believe. I personally would not be too surprised to see Tesla's valuation compress, and thus NIO could trade well below the $600 billion market cap level in 2030, even if it continues to grow meaningfully. It is also possible that NIO's growth disappoints and that current projections are too bullish, although I think that NIO is well-positioned for growth thanks to its unique BaaS model and its strong brand that is especially well-recognized in its home market.</p><p><blockquote>当我们暂时假设特斯拉今天的估值是正确的，并且电动汽车公司每年销售约80万辆汽车时确实应该获得6000亿美元的市值时，那么蔚来最终也可能达到这一目标，尽管不是在短期内。蔚来今年将销售约9万辆汽车，2025年这一数字将增长至约40万辆。如果蔚来的销量在此之后每年增长15%，那么到2030年（即9年后），它可能会售出约80万辆汽车。如果想要更快的增长，也可以在2030年之前跨越每年80万辆汽车的界限，例如2028年或2029年。如果我们现在确实选择2030年，那么按照与特斯拉类似的交付量与市值比率，蔚来到2030年的估值可能会超过6000亿美元。换句话说，如果我们假设当前的增长预测是现实的，并且类似特斯拉的估值是合适的，那么九年后蔚来的价值可能会与特斯拉（今天）一样高。当然，这是两个主要的如果，尤其是第二点，我认为还远未确定。我个人不会对特斯拉的估值压缩感到太惊讶，因此蔚来的市值在2030年可能远低于6000亿美元的水平，即使它继续大幅增长。蔚来的增长也有可能令人失望，目前的预测过于乐观，尽管我认为蔚来凭借其独特的BaaS模式和在国内市场特别受认可的强大品牌，处于良好的增长地位。</blockquote></p><p> It should also be noted that Tesla's market cap in 2030 could be very different from $600 billion, thus even in case NIO hits that level, it is not at all guaranteed that the two companies will have a similar market cap. Tesla might be valued at a way higher valuation by then, e.g. if the ARK model is right (something I personally think is unlikely). To answer the above question, one could thus say that NIO might be worth hundreds of billions of dollars, like Tesla, in 8-10 years, but that is not at all guaranteed. And even if that were to happen, Tesla might be worth significantly more by then.</p><p><blockquote>还应该指出的是，特斯拉2030年的市值可能与6000亿美元有很大不同，因此即使蔚来达到这一水平，也不能保证两家公司的市值会相似。到那时，特斯拉的估值可能会高得多，例如如果方舟模型是正确的（我个人认为不太可能）。为了回答上述问题，人们可以说，蔚来可能在8-10年内像特斯拉一样价值数千亿美元，但这根本不能保证。即使这种情况发生，到那时特斯拉的价值也可能会高得多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO A Good Stock To Buy Or Sell Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来现在是买入或卖出的好股票吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> When considering NIO as an investment, it doesn't really matter all that much whether it will become as large or highly valued as Tesla eventually. Instead, investors should ask themselves what total returns they can expect over the next couple of years, and whether those expected returns are high enough relative to the risks in NIO's business model. Regarding those risks, one should mention the fact that the company isn't profitable yet, which means that NIO is dependent on cash on its balance sheet for growth investments. On top of that, competition in the EV space is growing, and market share battles could pressure margins in coming years, although NIO seems relatively well-positioned thanks to its battery-swapping, which is, I believe, a strong USP. Last but not least, the company's dependence on its home market China is a potential risk that should be kept in mind, although it should also be noted that, for now, it seems like the Chinese government is very accommodating to Chinese EV companies.</p><p><blockquote>当将蔚来视为一项投资时，它最终是否会变得像特斯拉一样庞大或估值很高并不重要。相反，投资者应该问自己，未来几年他们可以预期的总回报是多少，以及相对于蔚来商业模式的风险，这些预期回报是否足够高。关于这些风险，应该提到的事实是，该公司尚未盈利，这意味着蔚来依赖其资产负债表上的现金进行增长投资。最重要的是，电动汽车领域的竞争正在加剧，市场份额之争可能会在未来几年给利润率带来压力，尽管蔚来似乎由于其电池交换而处于相对有利的地位，我认为这是一个强大的USP。最后但并非最不重要的是，该公司对中国本土市场的依赖是一个应该牢记的潜在风险，尽管还应该指出的是，目前中国政府似乎对中国电动汽车公司非常包容。</blockquote></p><p> One could argue that valuations across the whole EV industry are too high, relative to how legacy auto companies are valued. Even those legacy players with attractive EV offerings such as Volkswagen or Ford trade at huge discounts compared to EV pureplays. But if one wants to invest in an EV pureplay, NIO doesn't seem like a bad choice. The company combines a strong brand, a unique BaaS offering, high growth rates, and shares trade at a discount compared to how the EV king Tesla is valued. At a little above 3x 2025 revenue, NIO does not seem overly expensive relative to other EV pureplays, although this still represents a premium versus legacy players, of course. If NIO manages to execute well and continues to roll out new models that are well-received by consumers, its shares could have significant upside potential in the long run. If EV stocks ever become an out-of-favor investment, NIO stock also could have considerable downside, however, this thus is not a low-risk pick. Depending on your risk tolerance, NIO could still be of value if you want a high-growth EV pureplay.</p><p><blockquote>有人可能会说，相对于传统汽车公司的估值，整个电动汽车行业的估值过高。与纯电动汽车相比，即使是大众汽车或福特等拥有有吸引力的电动汽车产品的传统企业，其交易也有巨大的折扣。但如果你想投资纯电动汽车，蔚来似乎是一个不错的选择。该公司结合了强大的品牌、独特的BaaS产品、高增长率，并且与电动汽车之王特斯拉的估值相比，股票交易价格有折扣。与其他纯电动汽车公司相比，蔚来2025年收入略高于3倍，似乎并不算太贵，当然，与传统公司相比，这仍然代表着溢价。如果蔚来能够表现良好并继续推出深受消费者欢迎的新车型，从长远来看，其股价可能具有巨大的上涨潜力。如果电动汽车股票成为不受欢迎的投资，蔚来股票也可能有相当大的下跌空间，然而，这并不是一个低风险的选择。根据您的风险承受能力，如果您想要高增长的纯电动汽车，蔚来仍然可能具有价值。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks<blockquote>蔚来股票会追随特斯拉的脚步吗？这两只电动汽车股票之间需要考虑什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks<blockquote>蔚来股票会追随特斯拉的脚步吗？这两只电动汽车股票之间需要考虑什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-24 09:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Let's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.</li>  <li>NIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.</li>  <li>NIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f749c70c8a2af3e18d5f6cecc72bfbb\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"704\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>ipopba/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>让我们来看看今天的蔚来与特斯拉相比如何，蔚来的独特卖点，以及两家公司的相似之处。</li><li>蔚来是一个高增长的选择，相对于特斯拉的估值，它似乎并不太昂贵。</li><li>然而，蔚来并不是一只低风险股票，它可能并不是每个人的好选择。投资者还应该考虑蔚来与传统汽车公司的估值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ipopba/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO, Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading EV players, and has, through an attractive brand and its unique BaaS offering, attracted a lot of interest from consumers and investors. Today, however, the company is still way smaller than Tesla (TSLA), which is currently leading the global EV market. NIO is focused on its home market right now, which was true when Tesla was a smaller company as well, but NIO will try to grab market share in overseas markets as well. Shares are pricing in a lot of growth already, but if NIO can replicate Tesla's success, that could be more than justified.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来公司（蔚来）是中国领先的电动汽车制造商之一，通过其有吸引力的品牌和独特的BaaS产品吸引了消费者和投资者的极大兴趣。然而，如今，该公司仍然比目前引领全球电动汽车市场的特斯拉（TSLA）小得多。蔚来目前专注于国内市场，当特斯拉还是一家较小的公司时也是如此，但蔚来也将试图在海外市场抢占市场份额。股价已经反映了很大的增长，但如果蔚来能够复制特斯拉的成功，这可能是非常合理的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO And TSLA Stock Prices</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来和特斯拉股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Both companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV pureplays rise rapidly. The combination of growing market share for EVs, accommodating policies such as subsidies for EV purchases, and massive monetary stimulus let shares of NIO and TSLA rise rapidly. NIO is up 245% over the last year, while TSLA is up 101% over the same time. Both companies are currently trading below their all-time highs, however, which were hit in early 2021 before market sentiment for EV pureplays cooled to some degree.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，两家公司都受益于人们对电动汽车日益增长的兴趣，这一趋势导致大多数纯电动汽车公司的股价迅速上涨。电动汽车市场份额不断增长、电动汽车购买补贴等宽松政策以及大规模货币刺激措施相结合，让蔚来和特斯拉的股价迅速上涨。蔚来去年上涨了245%，而特斯拉同期上涨了101%。然而，两家公司目前的交易价格均低于2021年初创下的历史高点，随后纯电动汽车的市场情绪在一定程度上降温。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ff5ce865807df85283775d2293b41af\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Taking a quick look at analyst price targets, we see that Tesla is trading almost perfectly in line with the consensus, whereas NIO trades about 30% below the analyst target. If the analyst community is right, then NIO is a substantially better investment right here, as Tesla is not expected to see its shares rise meaningfully over the next year, whereas NIO has significant upside to the analyst price target.</p><p><blockquote>快速浏览一下分析师的目标价，我们发现特斯拉的交易价格几乎完全符合共识，而蔚来的交易价格比分析师目标低约30%。如果分析师界是正确的，那么蔚来是一项更好的投资，因为预计特斯拉的股价明年不会大幅上涨，而蔚来的股价较分析师目标价有显着上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO Similar To Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来和特斯拉相似吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that question depends on what you focus on. There are similarities between the two companies, but there are also differences. One could thus say that, in some ways, the two are similar, but in others, they are not. Let's look at a couple of things:</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案取决于你关注的是什么。两家公司有相似之处，但也有不同之处。因此，人们可以说，在某些方面，两者是相似的，但在另一些方面，它们不是。让我们看几件事：</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Both companies are focused on the EV space, although Tesla has, over the years, been building out a couple of other businesses as well, such as energy storage. Most of Tesla's revenues are generated through selling electric vehicles, which is also how NIO operates. Both companies are focused on the premium segment of EVs, selling higher-priced vehicles that compete with brands such as BMW, Mercedes, and Lexus. Both companies offer a small range of different vehicles, in Tesla's case those are the well-known S, X, 3, and Y, whereas NIO offers a sedan (ET7), and three SUVs (EC6, ES6, ES8). Despite the fact that NIO is a way smaller company today, the model lineups of the two companies do thus not differ too much.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都专注于电动汽车领域，尽管特斯拉多年来也在发展其他一些业务，例如储能。特斯拉的大部分收入来自销售电动汽车，这也是蔚来的运营方式。两家公司都专注于电动汽车的高端市场，销售与宝马、梅赛德斯和雷克萨斯等品牌竞争的高价汽车。两家公司都提供少量不同的车辆，特斯拉是著名的S、X、3和Y，而蔚来则提供一款轿车(ET7)和三款SUV(EC6、ES6、ES8)。尽管蔚来如今是一家规模较小的公司，但两家公司的车型阵容并没有太大差异。</blockquote></p><p> Both companies offer some type of charging infrastructure to their customers, in Tesla's case, that's the Supercharger network, where Tesla owners can charge their cars with up to 250kW, depending on what version of Supercharger is installed. NIO is following a different approach, offering a battery-as-a-service solution to its customers. NIO owners can get their battery switched out to a fully-charged battery at NIO's stations, a process that takes a couple of minutes and is thus significantly quicker compared to the regular EV charging offered by Tesla and other EV players. BaaS thus has advantages when it comes to the time it takes for a charge/swap, but it should be noted that Tesla's Superchargers are way more common around the world compared to NIO's battery-swapping stations. Rolling out that feature in additional markets will require large capital expenditures, but NIO's offering is a unique selling point compared to what all other EV players, including Tesla, are offering. It remains to be seen whether that will ultimately pay off, but this could become a major advantage for NIO as competition in the EV space is heating up.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都向客户提供某种类型的充电基础设施，就特斯拉而言，这就是Supercharger网络，特斯拉车主可以根据安装的Supercharger版本为汽车充电高达250kW。蔚来正在采取不同的方法，为客户提供电池即服务解决方案。蔚来车主可以在蔚来的充电站将电池更换为充满电的电池，这一过程需要几分钟，因此与特斯拉和其他电动汽车厂商提供的常规电动汽车充电相比要快得多。因此，BaaS在充电/交换所需时间方面具有优势，但应该指出的是，与蔚来的电池交换站相比，特斯拉的超级充电站在世界各地更为常见。在其他市场推出该功能将需要大量资本支出，但与包括特斯拉在内的所有其他电动汽车厂商相比，蔚来的产品是一个独特的卖点。这最终是否会得到回报还有待观察，但随着电动汽车领域的竞争加剧，这可能成为蔚来的一大优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Size, growth, and valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>规模、增长和估值</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The two companies differ significantly in size, both when it comes to revenues and vehicle sales, as well as when it comes to the market value of the two companies. NIO has delivered22,000 vehicles in Q2, up 112% year over year, for an annual pace of around 90,000 vehicles. Tesla, meanwhile, has delivered 201,000 vehicles during Q2, up from 103,000 vehicles delivered during Q2 2020. This is strong growth on a year-over-year basis, although slightly below 100%, and thus below the growth rate that NIO is generating for now.</p><p><blockquote>这两家公司的规模差异很大，无论是在收入和汽车销量方面，还是在两家公司的市值方面。蔚来第二季度交付了22,000辆汽车，同比增长112%，年增长率约为90,000辆。与此同时，特斯拉在第二季度交付了201,000辆汽车，高于2020年第二季度的103,000辆汽车。这是一个强劲的同比增长，尽管略低于100%，因此低于蔚来目前的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla delivers around 9x as many vehicles compared to NIO per quarter, when we look at the market capitalizations of the two companies, we see that the ratio is almost exactly the same, as Tesla's market cap of $640 billion is ~9x as high as that of NIO, at $72 billion. At similar growth rates, that would make perfect sense, but it looks like NIO might be the better deal for now, as it trades at a comparable valuation while generating better growth. This will be especially true in the coming quarters, where Tesla's growth is expected to slow down:</p><p><blockquote>与蔚来相比，特斯拉每季度交付的汽车数量约为9倍，当我们查看两家公司的市值时，我们发现这一比例几乎完全相同，因为特斯拉6400亿美元的市值约为9倍。蔚来的市值为720亿美元。在类似的增长率下，这是完全有道理的，但目前看来蔚来可能是更好的交易，因为它的估值相当，同时产生更好的增长。在未来几个季度尤其如此，预计特斯拉的增长将放缓：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a986ea65130206f99961a46ce6cfed55\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Tesla is forecasted to grow its revenue from $49 billion in 2021 to $83 billion in 2023, for an annual growth rate of 30%. NIO, meanwhile, is expected to see its revenue explode upwards from $5.4 billion to $12.8 billion between 2021 and 2023, for an annual growth rate of 54%. NIO is thus expected to grow way faster than Tesla over the next two years, on a relative basis. This shouldn't be a surprise, to be honest, as the law of large numbers dictates that maintaining massive growth rates becomes increasingly hard for a company the bigger it gets, and Tesla seems to have hit that point by now -- adding 50%+ a year to its top line will not be possible forever. This isn't even necessarily Tesla's fault, in fact, many high-quality growth companies have experienced the same. But investors should still consider this important fact -- Tesla's growth in coming years will be less exciting compared to what we have seen in the past, and peers, such as NIO, are growing faster.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉的收入预计将从2021年的490亿美元增长到2023年的830亿美元，年增长率为30%。与此同时，蔚来的收入预计将在2021年至2023年间从54亿美元猛增至128亿美元，年增长率为54%。因此，相对而言，预计未来两年蔚来的增长速度将远远快于特斯拉。老实说，这并不奇怪，因为大数定律表明，对于一家规模越大的公司来说，保持大幅增长率就变得越来越困难，而特斯拉现在似乎已经达到了这一点——每年增加50%以上的收入将永远不可能。这甚至不一定是特斯拉的错，事实上，许多优质成长型公司都经历过同样的事情。但投资者仍应考虑这一重要事实——与我们过去看到的相比，特斯拉未来几年的增长将不那么令人兴奋，而蔚来等同行的增长速度更快。</blockquote></p><p> The same holds true when we take a longer-term view. Revenue estimates for 2025 rest at$22.6 billionfor NIO, up another 80% from the 2023 estimate, and up 320% from what analysts are forecasting for 2021. Tesla, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate revenues of $122.5 billion in 2025 -- a large number, but up by a comparatively weak 48% from 2023, and up by a total of 150% versus 2021. Between 2021 and 2025, NIO will thus 4x its revenue, while Tesla will 2.5x its revenue in the same time span -- a meaningful difference that should, all else equal, allow for a premium valuation for NIO, in the same way Tesla deserves a premium valuation versus legacy players such as Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY).</p><p><blockquote>当我们从长远来看时，情况也是如此。蔚来2025年的收入预期为226亿美元，比2023年的预期再增长80%，比分析师对2021年的预测增长320%。与此同时，特斯拉预计2025年的收入将达到1,225亿美元，这是一个很大的数字，但比2023年增长了48%，比2021年总共增长了150%。因此，在2021年至2025年间，蔚来的收入将增加4倍，而特斯拉的收入将在同一时期增加2.5倍——在其他条件相同的情况下，这是一个有意义的差异，应该允许蔚来获得溢价估值，就像特斯拉一样。与大众汽车（OTCPK：VWAGY）等传统企业相比，它值得获得溢价估值。</blockquote></p><p> Looking at revenue estimates for 2025 relative to how the two companies are valued today, we see that NIO trades at 3.2x 2025 sales, while the 2025 sales multiple for Tesla is 5.2. For a long-term oriented investor, NIO thus seems like the better value today, thanks to the fact that it is trading at a significantly lower sales multiple when we take a look into the future. This does not necessarily mean that NIO is cheap, however, as even a 3.2x 2025 sales multiple is relatively high compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. NIO is looking less expensive than Tesla, however, even if its shares are not cheap on an absolute basis.</p><p><blockquote>相对于两家公司目前的估值来看2025年的收入预期，我们发现蔚来的市盈率为2025年销售额的3.2倍，而特斯拉2025年的销售额倍数为5.2倍。因此，对于长期投资者来说，蔚来今天似乎更有价值，因为当我们展望未来时，它的销售倍数要低得多。然而，这并不一定意味着蔚来很便宜，因为与传统汽车公司的估值相比，即使2025年3.2倍的销售倍数也相对较高。然而，蔚来看起来比特斯拉便宜，尽管其股价绝对并不便宜。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Can NIO Be Worth As Much As Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来能和特斯拉一样值钱吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that depends on what time frame you are looking at. Today, NIO is significantly smaller than Tesla and thus rightfully trades at a way smaller market cap. It should also be noted that there is no guarantee that Tesla's shares are a great example of how an EV company should be valued -- it is, at least, possible that its shares are significantly&nbsp;overpriced&nbsp;today, I personally believe that as well (Note that some will argue that shares are&nbsp;underpriced, which is also among the possibilities, although I do not hold that belief personally).</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案取决于你所关注的时间框架。如今，蔚来的规模明显小于特斯拉，因此其市值也相应地小得多。还应该指出的是，不能保证特斯拉的股票是电动汽车公司应该如何估值的一个很好的例子——至少，它的股票今天有可能被严重高估，我个人也相信这一点（请注意，有些人会认为股票定价过低，这也是一种可能性，尽管我个人并不持有这种信念）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> When we do, for a moment, assume that Tesla is correctly valued today and that EV companies do deserve a market cap in the $600 billion range when they sell about 800,000 vehicles a year, then NIO could eventually hit that as well, although not in the near term. NIO will sell about 90,000 vehicles this year, and that amount should grow to about 400,000 in 2025. If NIO were to grow its sales by 15% a year beyond that point, it could sell around 800,000 cars in 2030, or 9 years from now. If one wants to assume faster growth, the 800,000 vehicles a year line could also be crossed before 2030, e.g. in 2028 or 2029. If we do go with 2030 for now, then NIO could, at a similar deliveries-to-market capitalization ratio to Tesla, be valued at $600+ billion in 2030. In other words, NIO could be worth as much as Tesla (today) in nine years, when we assume that current growth projections are realistic and that a Tesla-like valuation is appropriate. Those are two major ifs, of course, and especially the second point is far from certain, I believe. I personally would not be too surprised to see Tesla's valuation compress, and thus NIO could trade well below the $600 billion market cap level in 2030, even if it continues to grow meaningfully. It is also possible that NIO's growth disappoints and that current projections are too bullish, although I think that NIO is well-positioned for growth thanks to its unique BaaS model and its strong brand that is especially well-recognized in its home market.</p><p><blockquote>当我们暂时假设特斯拉今天的估值是正确的，并且电动汽车公司每年销售约80万辆汽车时确实应该获得6000亿美元的市值时，那么蔚来最终也可能达到这一目标，尽管不是在短期内。蔚来今年将销售约9万辆汽车，2025年这一数字将增长至约40万辆。如果蔚来的销量在此之后每年增长15%，那么到2030年（即9年后），它可能会售出约80万辆汽车。如果想要更快的增长，也可以在2030年之前跨越每年80万辆汽车的界限，例如2028年或2029年。如果我们现在确实选择2030年，那么按照与特斯拉类似的交付量与市值比率，蔚来到2030年的估值可能会超过6000亿美元。换句话说，如果我们假设当前的增长预测是现实的，并且类似特斯拉的估值是合适的，那么九年后蔚来的价值可能会与特斯拉（今天）一样高。当然，这是两个主要的如果，尤其是第二点，我认为还远未确定。我个人不会对特斯拉的估值压缩感到太惊讶，因此蔚来的市值在2030年可能远低于6000亿美元的水平，即使它继续大幅增长。蔚来的增长也有可能令人失望，目前的预测过于乐观，尽管我认为蔚来凭借其独特的BaaS模式和在国内市场特别受认可的强大品牌，处于良好的增长地位。</blockquote></p><p> It should also be noted that Tesla's market cap in 2030 could be very different from $600 billion, thus even in case NIO hits that level, it is not at all guaranteed that the two companies will have a similar market cap. Tesla might be valued at a way higher valuation by then, e.g. if the ARK model is right (something I personally think is unlikely). To answer the above question, one could thus say that NIO might be worth hundreds of billions of dollars, like Tesla, in 8-10 years, but that is not at all guaranteed. And even if that were to happen, Tesla might be worth significantly more by then.</p><p><blockquote>还应该指出的是，特斯拉2030年的市值可能与6000亿美元有很大不同，因此即使蔚来达到这一水平，也不能保证两家公司的市值会相似。到那时，特斯拉的估值可能会高得多，例如如果方舟模型是正确的（我个人认为不太可能）。为了回答上述问题，人们可以说，蔚来可能在8-10年内像特斯拉一样价值数千亿美元，但这根本不能保证。即使这种情况发生，到那时特斯拉的价值也可能会高得多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO A Good Stock To Buy Or Sell Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来现在是买入或卖出的好股票吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> When considering NIO as an investment, it doesn't really matter all that much whether it will become as large or highly valued as Tesla eventually. Instead, investors should ask themselves what total returns they can expect over the next couple of years, and whether those expected returns are high enough relative to the risks in NIO's business model. Regarding those risks, one should mention the fact that the company isn't profitable yet, which means that NIO is dependent on cash on its balance sheet for growth investments. On top of that, competition in the EV space is growing, and market share battles could pressure margins in coming years, although NIO seems relatively well-positioned thanks to its battery-swapping, which is, I believe, a strong USP. Last but not least, the company's dependence on its home market China is a potential risk that should be kept in mind, although it should also be noted that, for now, it seems like the Chinese government is very accommodating to Chinese EV companies.</p><p><blockquote>当将蔚来视为一项投资时，它最终是否会变得像特斯拉一样庞大或估值很高并不重要。相反，投资者应该问自己，未来几年他们可以预期的总回报是多少，以及相对于蔚来商业模式的风险，这些预期回报是否足够高。关于这些风险，应该提到的事实是，该公司尚未盈利，这意味着蔚来依赖其资产负债表上的现金进行增长投资。最重要的是，电动汽车领域的竞争正在加剧，市场份额之争可能会在未来几年给利润率带来压力，尽管蔚来似乎由于其电池交换而处于相对有利的地位，我认为这是一个强大的USP。最后但并非最不重要的是，该公司对中国本土市场的依赖是一个应该牢记的潜在风险，尽管还应该指出的是，目前中国政府似乎对中国电动汽车公司非常包容。</blockquote></p><p> One could argue that valuations across the whole EV industry are too high, relative to how legacy auto companies are valued. Even those legacy players with attractive EV offerings such as Volkswagen or Ford trade at huge discounts compared to EV pureplays. But if one wants to invest in an EV pureplay, NIO doesn't seem like a bad choice. The company combines a strong brand, a unique BaaS offering, high growth rates, and shares trade at a discount compared to how the EV king Tesla is valued. At a little above 3x 2025 revenue, NIO does not seem overly expensive relative to other EV pureplays, although this still represents a premium versus legacy players, of course. If NIO manages to execute well and continues to roll out new models that are well-received by consumers, its shares could have significant upside potential in the long run. If EV stocks ever become an out-of-favor investment, NIO stock also could have considerable downside, however, this thus is not a low-risk pick. Depending on your risk tolerance, NIO could still be of value if you want a high-growth EV pureplay.</p><p><blockquote>有人可能会说，相对于传统汽车公司的估值，整个电动汽车行业的估值过高。与纯电动汽车相比，即使是大众汽车或福特等拥有有吸引力的电动汽车产品的传统企业，其交易也有巨大的折扣。但如果你想投资纯电动汽车，蔚来似乎是一个不错的选择。该公司结合了强大的品牌、独特的BaaS产品、高增长率，并且与电动汽车之王特斯拉的估值相比，股票交易价格有折扣。与其他纯电动汽车公司相比，蔚来2025年收入略高于3倍，似乎并不算太贵，当然，与传统公司相比，这仍然代表着溢价。如果蔚来能够表现良好并继续推出深受消费者欢迎的新车型，从长远来看，其股价可能具有巨大的上涨潜力。如果电动汽车股票成为不受欢迎的投资，蔚来股票也可能有相当大的下跌空间，然而，这并不是一个低风险的选择。根据您的风险承受能力，如果您想要高增长的纯电动汽车，蔚来仍然可能具有价值。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440950-will-nio-stock-follow-tesla-what-to-consider-ev-stocks\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440950-will-nio-stock-follow-tesla-what-to-consider-ev-stocks","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112927800","content_text":"Summary\n\nLet's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.\nNIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.\nNIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.\n\nipopba/iStock via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nNIO, Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading EV players, and has, through an attractive brand and its unique BaaS offering, attracted a lot of interest from consumers and investors. Today, however, the company is still way smaller than Tesla (TSLA), which is currently leading the global EV market. NIO is focused on its home market right now, which was true when Tesla was a smaller company as well, but NIO will try to grab market share in overseas markets as well. Shares are pricing in a lot of growth already, but if NIO can replicate Tesla's success, that could be more than justified.\nNIO And TSLA Stock Prices\nBoth companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV pureplays rise rapidly. The combination of growing market share for EVs, accommodating policies such as subsidies for EV purchases, and massive monetary stimulus let shares of NIO and TSLA rise rapidly. NIO is up 245% over the last year, while TSLA is up 101% over the same time. Both companies are currently trading below their all-time highs, however, which were hit in early 2021 before market sentiment for EV pureplays cooled to some degree.\nData by YCharts\nTaking a quick look at analyst price targets, we see that Tesla is trading almost perfectly in line with the consensus, whereas NIO trades about 30% below the analyst target. If the analyst community is right, then NIO is a substantially better investment right here, as Tesla is not expected to see its shares rise meaningfully over the next year, whereas NIO has significant upside to the analyst price target.\nIs NIO Similar To Tesla?\nThe answer to that question depends on what you focus on. There are similarities between the two companies, but there are also differences. One could thus say that, in some ways, the two are similar, but in others, they are not. Let's look at a couple of things:\nBusiness Model\nBoth companies are focused on the EV space, although Tesla has, over the years, been building out a couple of other businesses as well, such as energy storage. Most of Tesla's revenues are generated through selling electric vehicles, which is also how NIO operates. Both companies are focused on the premium segment of EVs, selling higher-priced vehicles that compete with brands such as BMW, Mercedes, and Lexus. Both companies offer a small range of different vehicles, in Tesla's case those are the well-known S, X, 3, and Y, whereas NIO offers a sedan (ET7), and three SUVs (EC6, ES6, ES8). Despite the fact that NIO is a way smaller company today, the model lineups of the two companies do thus not differ too much.\nBoth companies offer some type of charging infrastructure to their customers, in Tesla's case, that's the Supercharger network, where Tesla owners can charge their cars with up to 250kW, depending on what version of Supercharger is installed. NIO is following a different approach, offering a battery-as-a-service solution to its customers. NIO owners can get their battery switched out to a fully-charged battery at NIO's stations, a process that takes a couple of minutes and is thus significantly quicker compared to the regular EV charging offered by Tesla and other EV players. BaaS thus has advantages when it comes to the time it takes for a charge/swap, but it should be noted that Tesla's Superchargers are way more common around the world compared to NIO's battery-swapping stations. Rolling out that feature in additional markets will require large capital expenditures, but NIO's offering is a unique selling point compared to what all other EV players, including Tesla, are offering. It remains to be seen whether that will ultimately pay off, but this could become a major advantage for NIO as competition in the EV space is heating up.\nSize, growth, and valuation\nThe two companies differ significantly in size, both when it comes to revenues and vehicle sales, as well as when it comes to the market value of the two companies. NIO has delivered22,000 vehicles in Q2, up 112% year over year, for an annual pace of around 90,000 vehicles. Tesla, meanwhile, has delivered 201,000 vehicles during Q2, up from 103,000 vehicles delivered during Q2 2020. This is strong growth on a year-over-year basis, although slightly below 100%, and thus below the growth rate that NIO is generating for now.\nTesla delivers around 9x as many vehicles compared to NIO per quarter, when we look at the market capitalizations of the two companies, we see that the ratio is almost exactly the same, as Tesla's market cap of $640 billion is ~9x as high as that of NIO, at $72 billion. At similar growth rates, that would make perfect sense, but it looks like NIO might be the better deal for now, as it trades at a comparable valuation while generating better growth. This will be especially true in the coming quarters, where Tesla's growth is expected to slow down:\nData by YCharts\nTesla is forecasted to grow its revenue from $49 billion in 2021 to $83 billion in 2023, for an annual growth rate of 30%. NIO, meanwhile, is expected to see its revenue explode upwards from $5.4 billion to $12.8 billion between 2021 and 2023, for an annual growth rate of 54%. NIO is thus expected to grow way faster than Tesla over the next two years, on a relative basis. This shouldn't be a surprise, to be honest, as the law of large numbers dictates that maintaining massive growth rates becomes increasingly hard for a company the bigger it gets, and Tesla seems to have hit that point by now -- adding 50%+ a year to its top line will not be possible forever. This isn't even necessarily Tesla's fault, in fact, many high-quality growth companies have experienced the same. But investors should still consider this important fact -- Tesla's growth in coming years will be less exciting compared to what we have seen in the past, and peers, such as NIO, are growing faster.\nThe same holds true when we take a longer-term view. Revenue estimates for 2025 rest at$22.6 billionfor NIO, up another 80% from the 2023 estimate, and up 320% from what analysts are forecasting for 2021. Tesla, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate revenues of $122.5 billion in 2025 -- a large number, but up by a comparatively weak 48% from 2023, and up by a total of 150% versus 2021. Between 2021 and 2025, NIO will thus 4x its revenue, while Tesla will 2.5x its revenue in the same time span -- a meaningful difference that should, all else equal, allow for a premium valuation for NIO, in the same way Tesla deserves a premium valuation versus legacy players such as Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY).\nLooking at revenue estimates for 2025 relative to how the two companies are valued today, we see that NIO trades at 3.2x 2025 sales, while the 2025 sales multiple for Tesla is 5.2. For a long-term oriented investor, NIO thus seems like the better value today, thanks to the fact that it is trading at a significantly lower sales multiple when we take a look into the future. This does not necessarily mean that NIO is cheap, however, as even a 3.2x 2025 sales multiple is relatively high compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. NIO is looking less expensive than Tesla, however, even if its shares are not cheap on an absolute basis.\nCan NIO Be Worth As Much As Tesla?\nThe answer to that depends on what time frame you are looking at. Today, NIO is significantly smaller than Tesla and thus rightfully trades at a way smaller market cap. It should also be noted that there is no guarantee that Tesla's shares are a great example of how an EV company should be valued -- it is, at least, possible that its shares are significantly overpriced today, I personally believe that as well (Note that some will argue that shares are underpriced, which is also among the possibilities, although I do not hold that belief personally).\nWhen we do, for a moment, assume that Tesla is correctly valued today and that EV companies do deserve a market cap in the $600 billion range when they sell about 800,000 vehicles a year, then NIO could eventually hit that as well, although not in the near term. NIO will sell about 90,000 vehicles this year, and that amount should grow to about 400,000 in 2025. If NIO were to grow its sales by 15% a year beyond that point, it could sell around 800,000 cars in 2030, or 9 years from now. If one wants to assume faster growth, the 800,000 vehicles a year line could also be crossed before 2030, e.g. in 2028 or 2029. If we do go with 2030 for now, then NIO could, at a similar deliveries-to-market capitalization ratio to Tesla, be valued at $600+ billion in 2030. In other words, NIO could be worth as much as Tesla (today) in nine years, when we assume that current growth projections are realistic and that a Tesla-like valuation is appropriate. Those are two major ifs, of course, and especially the second point is far from certain, I believe. I personally would not be too surprised to see Tesla's valuation compress, and thus NIO could trade well below the $600 billion market cap level in 2030, even if it continues to grow meaningfully. It is also possible that NIO's growth disappoints and that current projections are too bullish, although I think that NIO is well-positioned for growth thanks to its unique BaaS model and its strong brand that is especially well-recognized in its home market.\nIt should also be noted that Tesla's market cap in 2030 could be very different from $600 billion, thus even in case NIO hits that level, it is not at all guaranteed that the two companies will have a similar market cap. Tesla might be valued at a way higher valuation by then, e.g. if the ARK model is right (something I personally think is unlikely). To answer the above question, one could thus say that NIO might be worth hundreds of billions of dollars, like Tesla, in 8-10 years, but that is not at all guaranteed. And even if that were to happen, Tesla might be worth significantly more by then.\nIs NIO A Good Stock To Buy Or Sell Now?\nWhen considering NIO as an investment, it doesn't really matter all that much whether it will become as large or highly valued as Tesla eventually. Instead, investors should ask themselves what total returns they can expect over the next couple of years, and whether those expected returns are high enough relative to the risks in NIO's business model. Regarding those risks, one should mention the fact that the company isn't profitable yet, which means that NIO is dependent on cash on its balance sheet for growth investments. On top of that, competition in the EV space is growing, and market share battles could pressure margins in coming years, although NIO seems relatively well-positioned thanks to its battery-swapping, which is, I believe, a strong USP. Last but not least, the company's dependence on its home market China is a potential risk that should be kept in mind, although it should also be noted that, for now, it seems like the Chinese government is very accommodating to Chinese EV companies.\nOne could argue that valuations across the whole EV industry are too high, relative to how legacy auto companies are valued. Even those legacy players with attractive EV offerings such as Volkswagen or Ford trade at huge discounts compared to EV pureplays. But if one wants to invest in an EV pureplay, NIO doesn't seem like a bad choice. The company combines a strong brand, a unique BaaS offering, high growth rates, and shares trade at a discount compared to how the EV king Tesla is valued. At a little above 3x 2025 revenue, NIO does not seem overly expensive relative to other EV pureplays, although this still represents a premium versus legacy players, of course. If NIO manages to execute well and continues to roll out new models that are well-received by consumers, its shares could have significant upside potential in the long run. If EV stocks ever become an out-of-favor investment, NIO stock also could have considerable downside, however, this thus is not a low-risk pick. Depending on your risk tolerance, NIO could still be of value if you want a high-growth EV pureplay.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9,"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":535,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":175516528,"gmtCreate":1627041119664,"gmtModify":1631892251514,"author":{"id":"3584416898370318","authorId":"3584416898370318","name":"Yt64","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9824cc246c21cbb20e1583ad744abef8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584416898370318","authorIdStr":"3584416898370318"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like and comment&nbsp;","listText":"Pls like and comment&nbsp;","text":"Pls like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/175516528","repostId":"1164478982","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":738,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":175518729,"gmtCreate":1627041079161,"gmtModify":1631892251523,"author":{"id":"3584416898370318","authorId":"3584416898370318","name":"Yt64","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9824cc246c21cbb20e1583ad744abef8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584416898370318","authorIdStr":"3584416898370318"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like and comment&nbsp;","listText":"Pls like and comment&nbsp;","text":"Pls like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/175518729","repostId":"1147980203","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1147980203","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627040384,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1147980203?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-23 19:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon Stock: This Is How Subscriptions Matter<blockquote>亚马逊股票：这就是订阅的重要性</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147980203","media":"The Street","summary":"Amazon’s subscriptions do not amount to much revenue – probably even less so to profits. But the suc","content":"<p>  Amazon’s subscriptions do not amount to much revenue – probably even less so to profits. But the success of the company and the upside to Amazon stock may depend greatly on this business.  Amazon&nbsp;(<b>AMZN</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;is well known for its e-commerce and cloud services. But the company has been diversifying its business model in the past several years and gaining scale. For example, the 200 million Prime accountsmeanthat Amazon’s Prime Video has become one of the most widely available streaming services in the world.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊的订阅并没有带来多少收入，利润可能更少。但该公司的成功和亚马逊股票的上涨可能在很大程度上取决于这项业务。亚马逊（<b>AMZN</b>）-Get Report以其电子商务和云服务而闻名。但该公司在过去几年中一直在实现商业模式多元化并扩大规模。例如，2亿个Prime账户意味着亚马逊的Prime Video已成为世界上使用最广泛的流媒体服务之一。</blockquote></p><p> But if potential investors were to consider buying Amazon stock today, should they focus their due diligence on Amazon’s “side gigs”, particularly subscriptions? Amazon Prime, Prime Video and others: could they be an important piece of the investment thesis?</p><p><blockquote>但如果潜在投资者今天考虑购买亚马逊股票，他们是否应该将尽职调查重点放在亚马逊的“副业”上，特别是订阅？亚马逊Prime、Prime Video和其他：它们能成为投资论文的重要组成部分吗？</blockquote></p><p> <b>A snapshot of Amazon’s businesses</b></p><p><blockquote><b>亚马逊业务概况</b></blockquote></p><p> Around 70% of Amazon’s revenues come from e-commerce, broken into two major categories: 1P and 3P. The first consists of sales made by Amazon itself, while the latter pertains to thirty-party vendors that sell their products through Amazon’s marketplace.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊大约70%的收入来自电子商务，分为两大类：1P和3P。第一个包括亚马逊自己的销售，而后者涉及通过亚马逊市场销售产品的三十方供应商。</blockquote></p><p> Another 12% of Amazon’s revenues come from AWS, the acronym for Amazon Web Service. The segment provides cloud infrastructure services primarily to enterprises and competes with the likes of Microsoft’s Azure.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊另外12%的收入来自AWS，即亚马逊网络服务的缩写。该部门主要向企业提供云基础设施服务，并与微软Azure等公司竞争。</blockquote></p><p> Aside from physical stores and other minor activities, subscriptions account for only around 7% of Amazon’s total revenues – a drop in the bucket.</p><p><blockquote>除了实体店和其他次要活动，订阅仅占亚马逊总收入的7%左右——杯水车薪。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Does it matter?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>这有关系吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> At first glance, even if all of Amazon’s sub revenues were to vanish overnight (not practical, only a thought exercise), the company would still be left with a giant retail and cloud business that grew sales ata dizzying rate of around 40% last quarter. Without subscriptions, Amazon’s Q1 sales would have still increased by a respectable 34% year-over-year -- more so than in any quarter of 2019.</p><p><blockquote>乍一看，即使亚马逊的所有子收入在一夜之间消失（不切实际，只是一个思考练习），该公司仍然会留下一个巨大的零售和云业务，上个季度销售额以令人眼花缭乱的40%左右的速度增长。如果没有订阅，亚马逊第一季度的销售额仍将同比增长34%，增幅高于2019年任何一个季度。</blockquote></p><p> From a number’s perspective, Amazon would probably be fine deemphasizing its subscription businesses to become a pure-play e-commerce and cloud giant. US e-commerce isforecastedto grow 20% by 2025, and Amazon is likely to control a large piece of this expanding market. Worldwide, e-commerce is expected to grow an even better 30%, and Amazon’s footprint expansion opportunities outside North America are substantial.</p><p><blockquote>从一些人的角度来看，亚马逊可能可以淡化其订阅业务，成为一家纯粹的电子商务和云巨头。预计到2025年，美国电子商务将增长20%，亚马逊可能会控制这个不断扩大的市场的很大一部分。在全球范围内，电子商务预计将增长30%，亚马逊在北美以外的足迹扩张机会巨大。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Think bigger picture</b></p><p><blockquote><b>考虑更大的图景</b></blockquote></p><p> The catch is that subscriptions serve as a hook to attract and retain Amazon customers into its retail ecosystem.</p><p><blockquote>问题在于，订阅可以吸引和留住亚马逊客户进入其零售生态系统。</blockquote></p><p> For instance, a Prime subscription brings in no more than $120 per year to Amazon’s coffers. Considering the costly benefits of a Prime account (i.e. fast delivery, access to audio and video content that is expensive to produce), the Seattle-based company probably sees little of the revenue trickling down to earnings.</p><p><blockquote>例如，Prime订阅每年为亚马逊带来的收入不超过120美元。考虑到Prime帐户的昂贵好处（即快速交付、访问制作成本高昂的音频和视频内容），这家总部位于西雅图的公司可能很少有收入会转化为收益。</blockquote></p><p> However, a Prime member is a much better Amazon customer compared to those who do not have a membership. According toForbes, a staggering 96% of all Prime members agree that they are more likely to buy from Amazon than from other e-commerce vendors. See below.</p><p><blockquote>然而，与没有会员的人相比，Prime会员是更好的亚马逊客户。据《福布斯》报道，惊人的是，96%的Prime会员认为他们更有可能从亚马逊购买商品，而不是从其他电子商务供应商那里购买商品。见下文。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/348e859b0c882c8e45d3edc9324f8351\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"314\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">“Ecosystem” may be an overused term, but it seems to be the path to success that Big Tech companies like Amazon have been carving. While the company’s subscription business is far from being a large revenue generator, it probably contributes greatly, although mostly indirectly, to Amazon’s dominance in e-commerce.</p><p><blockquote>“生态系统”可能是一个被过度使用的术语，但它似乎是亚马逊等大型科技公司一直在开辟的成功之路。虽然该公司的订阅业务远不是一个大的收入来源，但它可能对亚马逊在电子商务领域的主导地位做出了巨大贡献，尽管大部分是间接的。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610613172068","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon Stock: This Is How Subscriptions Matter<blockquote>亚马逊股票：这就是订阅的重要性</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon Stock: This Is How Subscriptions Matter<blockquote>亚马逊股票：这就是订阅的重要性</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Street</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-23 19:39</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  Amazon’s subscriptions do not amount to much revenue – probably even less so to profits. But the success of the company and the upside to Amazon stock may depend greatly on this business.  Amazon&nbsp;(<b>AMZN</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;is well known for its e-commerce and cloud services. But the company has been diversifying its business model in the past several years and gaining scale. For example, the 200 million Prime accountsmeanthat Amazon’s Prime Video has become one of the most widely available streaming services in the world.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊的订阅并没有带来多少收入，利润可能更少。但该公司的成功和亚马逊股票的上涨可能在很大程度上取决于这项业务。亚马逊（<b>AMZN</b>）-Get Report以其电子商务和云服务而闻名。但该公司在过去几年中一直在实现商业模式多元化并扩大规模。例如，2亿个Prime账户意味着亚马逊的Prime Video已成为世界上使用最广泛的流媒体服务之一。</blockquote></p><p> But if potential investors were to consider buying Amazon stock today, should they focus their due diligence on Amazon’s “side gigs”, particularly subscriptions? Amazon Prime, Prime Video and others: could they be an important piece of the investment thesis?</p><p><blockquote>但如果潜在投资者今天考虑购买亚马逊股票，他们是否应该将尽职调查重点放在亚马逊的“副业”上，特别是订阅？亚马逊Prime、Prime Video和其他：它们能成为投资论文的重要组成部分吗？</blockquote></p><p> <b>A snapshot of Amazon’s businesses</b></p><p><blockquote><b>亚马逊业务概况</b></blockquote></p><p> Around 70% of Amazon’s revenues come from e-commerce, broken into two major categories: 1P and 3P. The first consists of sales made by Amazon itself, while the latter pertains to thirty-party vendors that sell their products through Amazon’s marketplace.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊大约70%的收入来自电子商务，分为两大类：1P和3P。第一个包括亚马逊自己的销售，而后者涉及通过亚马逊市场销售产品的三十方供应商。</blockquote></p><p> Another 12% of Amazon’s revenues come from AWS, the acronym for Amazon Web Service. The segment provides cloud infrastructure services primarily to enterprises and competes with the likes of Microsoft’s Azure.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊另外12%的收入来自AWS，即亚马逊网络服务的缩写。该部门主要向企业提供云基础设施服务，并与微软Azure等公司竞争。</blockquote></p><p> Aside from physical stores and other minor activities, subscriptions account for only around 7% of Amazon’s total revenues – a drop in the bucket.</p><p><blockquote>除了实体店和其他次要活动，订阅仅占亚马逊总收入的7%左右——杯水车薪。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Does it matter?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>这有关系吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> At first glance, even if all of Amazon’s sub revenues were to vanish overnight (not practical, only a thought exercise), the company would still be left with a giant retail and cloud business that grew sales ata dizzying rate of around 40% last quarter. Without subscriptions, Amazon’s Q1 sales would have still increased by a respectable 34% year-over-year -- more so than in any quarter of 2019.</p><p><blockquote>乍一看，即使亚马逊的所有子收入在一夜之间消失（不切实际，只是一个思考练习），该公司仍然会留下一个巨大的零售和云业务，上个季度销售额以令人眼花缭乱的40%左右的速度增长。如果没有订阅，亚马逊第一季度的销售额仍将同比增长34%，增幅高于2019年任何一个季度。</blockquote></p><p> From a number’s perspective, Amazon would probably be fine deemphasizing its subscription businesses to become a pure-play e-commerce and cloud giant. US e-commerce isforecastedto grow 20% by 2025, and Amazon is likely to control a large piece of this expanding market. Worldwide, e-commerce is expected to grow an even better 30%, and Amazon’s footprint expansion opportunities outside North America are substantial.</p><p><blockquote>从一些人的角度来看，亚马逊可能可以淡化其订阅业务，成为一家纯粹的电子商务和云巨头。预计到2025年，美国电子商务将增长20%，亚马逊可能会控制这个不断扩大的市场的很大一部分。在全球范围内，电子商务预计将增长30%，亚马逊在北美以外的足迹扩张机会巨大。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Think bigger picture</b></p><p><blockquote><b>考虑更大的图景</b></blockquote></p><p> The catch is that subscriptions serve as a hook to attract and retain Amazon customers into its retail ecosystem.</p><p><blockquote>问题在于，订阅可以吸引和留住亚马逊客户进入其零售生态系统。</blockquote></p><p> For instance, a Prime subscription brings in no more than $120 per year to Amazon’s coffers. Considering the costly benefits of a Prime account (i.e. fast delivery, access to audio and video content that is expensive to produce), the Seattle-based company probably sees little of the revenue trickling down to earnings.</p><p><blockquote>例如，Prime订阅每年为亚马逊带来的收入不超过120美元。考虑到Prime帐户的昂贵好处（即快速交付、访问制作成本高昂的音频和视频内容），这家总部位于西雅图的公司可能很少有收入会转化为收益。</blockquote></p><p> However, a Prime member is a much better Amazon customer compared to those who do not have a membership. According toForbes, a staggering 96% of all Prime members agree that they are more likely to buy from Amazon than from other e-commerce vendors. See below.</p><p><blockquote>然而，与没有会员的人相比，Prime会员是更好的亚马逊客户。据《福布斯》报道，惊人的是，96%的Prime会员认为他们更有可能从亚马逊购买商品，而不是从其他电子商务供应商那里购买商品。见下文。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/348e859b0c882c8e45d3edc9324f8351\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"314\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">“Ecosystem” may be an overused term, but it seems to be the path to success that Big Tech companies like Amazon have been carving. While the company’s subscription business is far from being a large revenue generator, it probably contributes greatly, although mostly indirectly, to Amazon’s dominance in e-commerce.</p><p><blockquote>“生态系统”可能是一个被过度使用的术语，但它似乎是亚马逊等大型科技公司一直在开辟的成功之路。虽然该公司的订阅业务远不是一个大的收入来源，但它可能对亚马逊在电子商务领域的主导地位做出了巨大贡献，尽管大部分是间接的。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/amazon/media/amazon-stock-this-is-how-subscriptions-matter\">The Street</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/amazon/media/amazon-stock-this-is-how-subscriptions-matter","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147980203","content_text":"Amazon’s subscriptions do not amount to much revenue – probably even less so to profits. But the success of the company and the upside to Amazon stock may depend greatly on this business.\n\nAmazon (AMZN) -Get Report is well known for its e-commerce and cloud services. But the company has been diversifying its business model in the past several years and gaining scale. For example, the 200 million Prime accountsmeanthat Amazon’s Prime Video has become one of the most widely available streaming services in the world.\nBut if potential investors were to consider buying Amazon stock today, should they focus their due diligence on Amazon’s “side gigs”, particularly subscriptions? Amazon Prime, Prime Video and others: could they be an important piece of the investment thesis?\nA snapshot of Amazon’s businesses\nAround 70% of Amazon’s revenues come from e-commerce, broken into two major categories: 1P and 3P. The first consists of sales made by Amazon itself, while the latter pertains to thirty-party vendors that sell their products through Amazon’s marketplace.\nAnother 12% of Amazon’s revenues come from AWS, the acronym for Amazon Web Service. The segment provides cloud infrastructure services primarily to enterprises and competes with the likes of Microsoft’s Azure.\nAside from physical stores and other minor activities, subscriptions account for only around 7% of Amazon’s total revenues – a drop in the bucket.\nDoes it matter?\nAt first glance, even if all of Amazon’s sub revenues were to vanish overnight (not practical, only a thought exercise), the company would still be left with a giant retail and cloud business that grew sales ata dizzying rate of around 40% last quarter. Without subscriptions, Amazon’s Q1 sales would have still increased by a respectable 34% year-over-year -- more so than in any quarter of 2019.\nFrom a number’s perspective, Amazon would probably be fine deemphasizing its subscription businesses to become a pure-play e-commerce and cloud giant. US e-commerce isforecastedto grow 20% by 2025, and Amazon is likely to control a large piece of this expanding market. Worldwide, e-commerce is expected to grow an even better 30%, and Amazon’s footprint expansion opportunities outside North America are substantial.\nThink bigger picture\nThe catch is that subscriptions serve as a hook to attract and retain Amazon customers into its retail ecosystem.\nFor instance, a Prime subscription brings in no more than $120 per year to Amazon’s coffers. Considering the costly benefits of a Prime account (i.e. fast delivery, access to audio and video content that is expensive to produce), the Seattle-based company probably sees little of the revenue trickling down to earnings.\nHowever, a Prime member is a much better Amazon customer compared to those who do not have a membership. According toForbes, a staggering 96% of all Prime members agree that they are more likely to buy from Amazon than from other e-commerce vendors. See below.\n“Ecosystem” may be an overused term, but it seems to be the path to success that Big Tech companies like Amazon have been carving. While the company’s subscription business is far from being a large revenue generator, it probably contributes greatly, although mostly indirectly, to Amazon’s dominance in e-commerce.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":482,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":172518045,"gmtCreate":1626965865587,"gmtModify":1631892251533,"author":{"id":"3584416898370318","authorId":"3584416898370318","name":"Yt64","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9824cc246c21cbb20e1583ad744abef8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584416898370318","authorIdStr":"3584416898370318"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like and comment thank you","listText":"Pls like and comment thank you","text":"Pls like and comment thank you","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/172518045","repostId":"1154266565","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1154266565","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626955588,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1154266565?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-22 20:06","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How to invest as the Delta variant takes hold<blockquote>随着德尔塔变异毒株的到来如何投资</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154266565","media":"cnn","summary":"New York When the market is plunging like it did last Friday and on Monday, it's tempting to throw in the towel and sell. Big drops can be scary.But dumping stocks on days when the Dow is getting whacked is usually the wrong thing to do. Stocks roared back Tuesday and were up again Wednesday.If you're investing for the long haul, the best thing you can do is ride out this wave of volatility.\"Stay invested,\" said Seema Shah, chief strategist at Principal Global Investors. Shah told CNN Business t","content":"<p>New York (CNN Business)When the market is plunging like it did last Friday and on Monday, it's tempting to throw in the towel and sell. Big drops can be scary.</p><p><blockquote>纽约（CNN商业）当市场像上周五和周一那样暴跌时，人们很容易认输并卖出。大跌可能会很可怕。</blockquote></p><p> But dumping stocks on days when the Dow is getting whacked is usually the wrong thing to do. Stocks roared back Tuesday and were up again Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>但在道琼斯指数遭受重创的日子抛售股票通常是错误的做法。周二股市大幅反弹，周三再次上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Yes, the Delta variant of Covid-19 has led to an alarming uptick in coronavirus cases in the United States and around the globe. But many experts think the massive number of vaccinations that have already taken place will prevent the economy and markets from going into another tailspin.</p><p><blockquote>是的，新冠肺炎的德尔塔变异毒株导致美国和全球冠状病毒病例惊人地上升。但许多专家认为，已经进行的大量疫苗接种将防止经济和市场陷入另一场混乱。</blockquote></p><p> If you're investing for the long haul, the best thing you can do is ride out this wave of volatility.</p><p><blockquote>如果你是长期投资，你能做的最好的事情就是安然度过这波波动。</blockquote></p><p> \"Stay invested,\" said Seema Shah, chief strategist at Principal Global Investors. Shah told CNN Business that the Delta variant is highly unlikely to stop the economic recovery in the US and other parts of the developed world where vaccination rates are high.</p><p><blockquote>信安全球投资者首席策略师Seema Shah表示：“保持投资。”沙阿告诉美国有线电视新闻网商业频道，德尔塔变异毒株不太可能阻止美国和其他疫苗接种率较高的发达国家的经济复苏。</blockquote></p><p> \"The vaccine is effective,\" she said. \"If cases are rising but hospitalization rates remain low, then the reopening measures from governments will continue.\"</p><p><blockquote>“疫苗是有效的，”她说。“如果病例在上升，但住院率仍然很低，那么政府的重新开放措施将继续下去。”</blockquote></p><p> Still, Shah conceded, investors should be more selective. After all, the S&amp;P 500 has nearly doubled from its pandemic lows in March 2020, and not all stocks and sectors will maintain their momentum.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，沙阿承认，投资者应该更加挑剔。毕竟，标普500较2020年3月的大流行低点上涨了近一倍，并非所有股票和板块都将保持其势头。</blockquote></p><p> She thinks defensive sectors might start to pull back a bit. Those include utilities, health care and others companies that pay big dividends and are considered good bond proxies.</p><p><blockquote>她认为防御性板块可能会开始小幅回调。其中包括公用事业、医疗保健和其他支付高额股息并被认为是良好债券代理的公司。</blockquote></p><p> The FAANGs and other big tech stocks, many of which have strong earnings momentum and tons of cash, should continue to rally, she said.</p><p><blockquote>她表示，FAANG和其他大型科技股应该会继续上涨，其中许多股拥有强劲的盈利势头和大量现金。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Not the time to bail on the market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现在不是退出市场的时候</b></blockquote></p><p> So should economic recovery plays in the travel and retail sectors that have pulled back lately on Covid concerns. United (UAL), for example, issued an upbeat outlook after the closing bell Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>旅游和零售行业的经济复苏也应该如此，这些行业最近因新冠疫情担忧而回落。例如，美联航(UAL)在周二收盘后发布了乐观的前景。</blockquote></p><p> \"Airlines have been beaten up,\" Shah said. \"But if you assume the reopening will continue, they should enjoy a significant bounceback.\"</p><p><blockquote>“航空公司受到了打击，”沙阿说。“但如果你假设重新开放将继续，他们应该会享受显着的反弹。”</blockquote></p><p> Stocks may remain bumpy for the foreseeable future, but that shouldn't dissuade investors from sticking with their longer-term investments.</p><p><blockquote>在可预见的未来，股市可能仍然坎坷，但这不应阻止投资者坚持长期投资。</blockquote></p><p> \"The uncertainty of the past couple of days is warranted for the short term,\" said Peter van der Welle, multi-asset strategist at Robeco. \"But there should be a second leg to the reflation trade.\"</p><p><blockquote>荷宝多资产策略师Peter van der Welle表示：“过去几天的不确定性在短期内是合理的。”“但通货再膨胀交易应该有第二条腿。”</blockquote></p><p> Van der Welle noted that there are many reasons to be optimistic about continued gains in consumer spending and retail sales, despite a recent drop in consumer confidence.</p><p><blockquote>范德韦勒指出，尽管近期消费者信心有所下降，但仍有许多理由对消费者支出和零售额的持续增长持乐观态度。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Buy the dips</b></p><p><blockquote><b>逢低买入</b></blockquote></p><p> Any wariness on the part of consumers — and investors, for that matter — could turn out to be fleeting.</p><p><blockquote>消费者——以及投资者——的任何谨慎都可能转瞬即逝。</blockquote></p><p> \"If you are a long-term investor, take advantage of this volatility and add to positions in companies and sectors you really like,\" said Phil Orlando, chief equity market strategist at Federated Hermes.</p><p><blockquote>Federated Hermes首席股票市场策略师菲尔·奥兰多(Phil Orlando)表示：“如果你是长期投资者，请利用这种波动性，增持你真正喜欢的公司和行业。”</blockquote></p><p> He he belives stocks in cyclical industries that have gotten hit because of Delta variant fears could enjoy the biggest rebounds.</p><p><blockquote>他认为，因德尔塔变异毒株担忧而受到打击的周期性行业股票可能会出现最大的反弹。</blockquote></p><p> \"There are stocks that have hit an air pocket that could be very attractive. We love the economically sensitive sectors,\" Orlando added, saying that banks and other financials, industrial firms, retailers and energy stocks may come roaring back.</p><p><blockquote>奥兰多补充道：“有些股票已经陷入困境，可能非常有吸引力。我们喜欢对经济敏感的行业。”他表示，银行和其他金融股、工业公司、零售商和能源股可能会大幅反弹。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How to invest as the Delta variant takes hold<blockquote>随着德尔塔变异毒株的到来如何投资</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow to invest as the Delta variant takes hold<blockquote>随着德尔塔变异毒株的到来如何投资</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">cnn</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-22 20:06</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>New York (CNN Business)When the market is plunging like it did last Friday and on Monday, it's tempting to throw in the towel and sell. Big drops can be scary.</p><p><blockquote>纽约（CNN商业）当市场像上周五和周一那样暴跌时，人们很容易认输并卖出。大跌可能会很可怕。</blockquote></p><p> But dumping stocks on days when the Dow is getting whacked is usually the wrong thing to do. Stocks roared back Tuesday and were up again Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>但在道琼斯指数遭受重创的日子抛售股票通常是错误的做法。周二股市大幅反弹，周三再次上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Yes, the Delta variant of Covid-19 has led to an alarming uptick in coronavirus cases in the United States and around the globe. But many experts think the massive number of vaccinations that have already taken place will prevent the economy and markets from going into another tailspin.</p><p><blockquote>是的，新冠肺炎的德尔塔变异毒株导致美国和全球冠状病毒病例惊人地上升。但许多专家认为，已经进行的大量疫苗接种将防止经济和市场陷入另一场混乱。</blockquote></p><p> If you're investing for the long haul, the best thing you can do is ride out this wave of volatility.</p><p><blockquote>如果你是长期投资，你能做的最好的事情就是安然度过这波波动。</blockquote></p><p> \"Stay invested,\" said Seema Shah, chief strategist at Principal Global Investors. Shah told CNN Business that the Delta variant is highly unlikely to stop the economic recovery in the US and other parts of the developed world where vaccination rates are high.</p><p><blockquote>信安全球投资者首席策略师Seema Shah表示：“保持投资。”沙阿告诉美国有线电视新闻网商业频道，德尔塔变异毒株不太可能阻止美国和其他疫苗接种率较高的发达国家的经济复苏。</blockquote></p><p> \"The vaccine is effective,\" she said. \"If cases are rising but hospitalization rates remain low, then the reopening measures from governments will continue.\"</p><p><blockquote>“疫苗是有效的，”她说。“如果病例在上升，但住院率仍然很低，那么政府的重新开放措施将继续下去。”</blockquote></p><p> Still, Shah conceded, investors should be more selective. After all, the S&amp;P 500 has nearly doubled from its pandemic lows in March 2020, and not all stocks and sectors will maintain their momentum.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，沙阿承认，投资者应该更加挑剔。毕竟，标普500较2020年3月的大流行低点上涨了近一倍，并非所有股票和板块都将保持其势头。</blockquote></p><p> She thinks defensive sectors might start to pull back a bit. Those include utilities, health care and others companies that pay big dividends and are considered good bond proxies.</p><p><blockquote>她认为防御性板块可能会开始小幅回调。其中包括公用事业、医疗保健和其他支付高额股息并被认为是良好债券代理的公司。</blockquote></p><p> The FAANGs and other big tech stocks, many of which have strong earnings momentum and tons of cash, should continue to rally, she said.</p><p><blockquote>她表示，FAANG和其他大型科技股应该会继续上涨，其中许多股拥有强劲的盈利势头和大量现金。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Not the time to bail on the market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现在不是退出市场的时候</b></blockquote></p><p> So should economic recovery plays in the travel and retail sectors that have pulled back lately on Covid concerns. United (UAL), for example, issued an upbeat outlook after the closing bell Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>旅游和零售行业的经济复苏也应该如此，这些行业最近因新冠疫情担忧而回落。例如，美联航(UAL)在周二收盘后发布了乐观的前景。</blockquote></p><p> \"Airlines have been beaten up,\" Shah said. \"But if you assume the reopening will continue, they should enjoy a significant bounceback.\"</p><p><blockquote>“航空公司受到了打击，”沙阿说。“但如果你假设重新开放将继续，他们应该会享受显着的反弹。”</blockquote></p><p> Stocks may remain bumpy for the foreseeable future, but that shouldn't dissuade investors from sticking with their longer-term investments.</p><p><blockquote>在可预见的未来，股市可能仍然坎坷，但这不应阻止投资者坚持长期投资。</blockquote></p><p> \"The uncertainty of the past couple of days is warranted for the short term,\" said Peter van der Welle, multi-asset strategist at Robeco. \"But there should be a second leg to the reflation trade.\"</p><p><blockquote>荷宝多资产策略师Peter van der Welle表示：“过去几天的不确定性在短期内是合理的。”“但通货再膨胀交易应该有第二条腿。”</blockquote></p><p> Van der Welle noted that there are many reasons to be optimistic about continued gains in consumer spending and retail sales, despite a recent drop in consumer confidence.</p><p><blockquote>范德韦勒指出，尽管近期消费者信心有所下降，但仍有许多理由对消费者支出和零售额的持续增长持乐观态度。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Buy the dips</b></p><p><blockquote><b>逢低买入</b></blockquote></p><p> Any wariness on the part of consumers — and investors, for that matter — could turn out to be fleeting.</p><p><blockquote>消费者——以及投资者——的任何谨慎都可能转瞬即逝。</blockquote></p><p> \"If you are a long-term investor, take advantage of this volatility and add to positions in companies and sectors you really like,\" said Phil Orlando, chief equity market strategist at Federated Hermes.</p><p><blockquote>Federated Hermes首席股票市场策略师菲尔·奥兰多(Phil Orlando)表示：“如果你是长期投资者，请利用这种波动性，增持你真正喜欢的公司和行业。”</blockquote></p><p> He he belives stocks in cyclical industries that have gotten hit because of Delta variant fears could enjoy the biggest rebounds.</p><p><blockquote>他认为，因德尔塔变异毒株担忧而受到打击的周期性行业股票可能会出现最大的反弹。</blockquote></p><p> \"There are stocks that have hit an air pocket that could be very attractive. We love the economically sensitive sectors,\" Orlando added, saying that banks and other financials, industrial firms, retailers and energy stocks may come roaring back.</p><p><blockquote>奥兰多补充道：“有些股票已经陷入困境，可能非常有吸引力。我们喜欢对经济敏感的行业。”他表示，银行和其他金融股、工业公司、零售商和能源股可能会大幅反弹。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/07/21/investing/investing-stock-market-volatility/index.html\">cnn</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/07/21/investing/investing-stock-market-volatility/index.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154266565","content_text":"New York (CNN Business)When the market is plunging like it did last Friday and on Monday, it's tempting to throw in the towel and sell. Big drops can be scary.\nBut dumping stocks on days when the Dow is getting whacked is usually the wrong thing to do. Stocks roared back Tuesday and were up again Wednesday.\nYes, the Delta variant of Covid-19 has led to an alarming uptick in coronavirus cases in the United States and around the globe. But many experts think the massive number of vaccinations that have already taken place will prevent the economy and markets from going into another tailspin.\nIf you're investing for the long haul, the best thing you can do is ride out this wave of volatility.\n\"Stay invested,\" said Seema Shah, chief strategist at Principal Global Investors. Shah told CNN Business that the Delta variant is highly unlikely to stop the economic recovery in the US and other parts of the developed world where vaccination rates are high.\n\"The vaccine is effective,\" she said. \"If cases are rising but hospitalization rates remain low, then the reopening measures from governments will continue.\"\nStill, Shah conceded, investors should be more selective. After all, the S&P 500 has nearly doubled from its pandemic lows in March 2020, and not all stocks and sectors will maintain their momentum.\nShe thinks defensive sectors might start to pull back a bit. Those include utilities, health care and others companies that pay big dividends and are considered good bond proxies.\nThe FAANGs and other big tech stocks, many of which have strong earnings momentum and tons of cash, should continue to rally, she said.\nNot the time to bail on the market\nSo should economic recovery plays in the travel and retail sectors that have pulled back lately on Covid concerns. United (UAL), for example, issued an upbeat outlook after the closing bell Tuesday.\n\"Airlines have been beaten up,\" Shah said. \"But if you assume the reopening will continue, they should enjoy a significant bounceback.\"\nStocks may remain bumpy for the foreseeable future, but that shouldn't dissuade investors from sticking with their longer-term investments.\n\"The uncertainty of the past couple of days is warranted for the short term,\" said Peter van der Welle, multi-asset strategist at Robeco. \"But there should be a second leg to the reflation trade.\"\nVan der Welle noted that there are many reasons to be optimistic about continued gains in consumer spending and retail sales, despite a recent drop in consumer confidence.\nBuy the dips\nAny wariness on the part of consumers — and investors, for that matter — could turn out to be fleeting.\n\"If you are a long-term investor, take advantage of this volatility and add to positions in companies and sectors you really like,\" said Phil Orlando, chief equity market strategist at Federated Hermes.\nHe he belives stocks in cyclical industries that have gotten hit because of Delta variant fears could enjoy the biggest rebounds.\n\"There are stocks that have hit an air pocket that could be very attractive. We love the economically sensitive sectors,\" Orlando added, saying that banks and other financials, industrial firms, retailers and energy stocks may come roaring back.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":984,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":176661191,"gmtCreate":1626880463813,"gmtModify":1631892251549,"author":{"id":"3584416898370318","authorId":"3584416898370318","name":"Yt64","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9824cc246c21cbb20e1583ad744abef8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584416898370318","authorIdStr":"3584416898370318"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like and comment","listText":"Pls like and comment","text":"Pls like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/176661191","repostId":"1107219983","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":640,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171329102,"gmtCreate":1626707175606,"gmtModify":1631892251559,"author":{"id":"3584416898370318","authorId":"3584416898370318","name":"Yt64","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9824cc246c21cbb20e1583ad744abef8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584416898370318","authorIdStr":"3584416898370318"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like","listText":"Pls like","text":"Pls like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/171329102","repostId":"1146536243","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146536243","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626683272,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1146536243?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-19 16:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual<blockquote>摩根士丹利：本轮周期将比往常“更热但更短”</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146536243","media":"zerohedge","summary":"This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.","content":"<p>We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为这个经济周期将是正常的、强劲的、短暂的。这些假设中的每一个都受到市场的激烈争论。每一项都是我们投资策略的关键。</blockquote></p><p> The debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.</p><p><blockquote>关于周期“常态”的争论是不言自明的。毫不夸张地说，疫情造成了有记录以来最大幅度的产出下降。随后，在政策支持的帮助下，经济活动迅速回升。将这种情况视为独特的，不同于其他周期性经历的理由是，这种暴力的下跌和上涨从未允许传统的“重置”。</blockquote></p><p> But 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.</p><p><blockquote>但市场中的“正常”是一个有趣的概念，记忆的粗糙边缘往往会随着时间的推移而变得光滑和抛光。2003-07年的周期以大萧条以来最大的银行和房地产危机结束。1992-2000年的周期以巨大的股票泡沫破裂、广泛的会计欺诈和难以言喻的悲剧而告终。“正常”周期在理论上很好，但在实践中更难。</blockquote></p><p> Instead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.</p><p><blockquote>相反，让我们考虑一下为什么我们使用术语“周期”。经济和市场往往遵循周期性模式，这些模式往往会在市场表现中显现出来。我们关心的是那些模式，如果它们仍然适用，它们可以在不确定的地形中提供有用的指导。</blockquote></p><p> Was last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.</p><p><blockquote>去年的衰退之前是否存在收益率曲线倒挂、低波动性、低失业率、高消费者信心和股市广度收窄等周期后期条件？是的。由此产生的股票、信贷、收益率和收益率曲线的低谷是否符合市场和经济低点之间的通常节奏？他们做到了。随后反弹的领头羊是否是通常的早期周期赢家，如小型股和周期性股票、高收益信贷和工业金属？他们是。</blockquote></p><p> If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are.&nbsp;If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should&nbsp;<i>continue</i>&nbsp;to do so.</p><p><blockquote>如果它像鸭子一样走路，像鸭子一样嘎嘎叫，我们认为这是一个正常的循环。或者这些事情实际上是正常的。如果到目前为止已经发生了很多“正常”的循环行为，那么它应该<i>继续</i>这样做。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see&nbsp;The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，这与市场复苏时的表现模式有关。随着复苏的推进，这些模式应该会发生变化。正如我的同事迈克尔·威尔逊所指出的，我们认为我们正在进入周期中期市场，尽管距离经济活动低点仅16个月。我们看到当前状况与2004年上半年有许多相似之处，2004年上半年是大幅通货再膨胀反弹之后的周期中期。重要的是，尽管最近对增长感到担忧，但我们认为全球复苏将继续推进（见增长恐慌周年纪念，2021年7月11日）。</blockquote></p><p> Because one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.<b>It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.</b></p><p><blockquote>因为人们总能找到适合他们特定周期观点的指标，所以我们长期以来一直是综合指数的粉丝。这就是我们的“周期模型”，它结合了美国宏观、信贷周期和企业侵略性的十个指标，以衡量我们在市场周期中的位置。在2019年6月进入周期后期“低迷”和2020年4月进入周期早期“修复”后，该指数飙升。<b>它上升得如此之快，以至于已经过了下一个阶段（“复苏”），直接进入了“扩张”。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41879c4f66b33597ee236bdd52841004\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Thisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',<b>and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends</b>. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.<b>It also hints at another possibility:&nbsp;this hotter cycle could be shorter.</b>This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.</p><p><blockquote>这很不寻常。“扩张”意味着捕捉“比正常情况更好且正在改善”的条件，<b>自1980年以来，“低迷”结束后平均需要35个月才能实现这一目标</b>它的迅速到来表明，在巨大的政策支持下，经济正在迅速复苏。<b>这也暗示了另一种可能性：这个更热的周期可能会更短。</b>这是我们的论点，它体现在我们的定量测量中。</blockquote></p><p> All this has a number of implications:</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都有许多含义：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>The shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases</b>. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.</li>  <li><b>In many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low</b>. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.</li>  <li><b>In equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios</b>. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.</li>  <li><b>Interest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model</b>. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.</li> </ul> This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>周期越短，信贷相对于其他风险资产越差；信贷从“繁荣”中获得的收益较少，如果下一次衰退提前到来，信贷就会面临风险，并且随着企业信心的增强，信贷将面临更多的供应</b>在我们周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国IG和HY Credit N1200万超额回报分别比平均水平差29个基点和161个基点。</li><li><b>在其中许多时期，尽管违约率仍然很低，但信贷表现却参差不齐</b>投资者应该尝试承担违约风险而不是利差风险：我们的信用策略师喜欢持有CDX HY 0-15%，并用CDX IG付款人利差进行对冲。</li><li><b>在股票方面，我们认为我们的模型支持投资组合更加平衡</b>我们看好美国和欧洲的医疗保健行业，因为该行业具有几个良好的因素：质量、低估值、高利差和低波动性。从全球来看，欧洲和日本的股市往往跑赢“中期周期”，我们认为它们可以再次这样做。</li><li><b>利率对复苏过于悲观。在我们周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国10年期国债1200万奈拉回报率比平均水平低97个基点</b>.Guneet Dhingra和我们的美国利率策略团队在全球资产配置中转移了跑输大盘美国10年期国债，而我们反过来又转移了跑输大盘政府债券。</li></ul>这种循环是不寻常的。大多数“正常”周期都是。我们认为复苏是可持续的，而且更有可能“更热、更短”。出售国债并相信扩张。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual<blockquote>摩根士丹利：本轮周期将比往常“更热但更短”</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual<blockquote>摩根士丹利：本轮周期将比往常“更热但更短”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-19 16:27</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为这个经济周期将是正常的、强劲的、短暂的。这些假设中的每一个都受到市场的激烈争论。每一项都是我们投资策略的关键。</blockquote></p><p> The debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.</p><p><blockquote>关于周期“常态”的争论是不言自明的。毫不夸张地说，疫情造成了有记录以来最大幅度的产出下降。随后，在政策支持的帮助下，经济活动迅速回升。将这种情况视为独特的，不同于其他周期性经历的理由是，这种暴力的下跌和上涨从未允许传统的“重置”。</blockquote></p><p> But 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.</p><p><blockquote>但市场中的“正常”是一个有趣的概念，记忆的粗糙边缘往往会随着时间的推移而变得光滑和抛光。2003-07年的周期以大萧条以来最大的银行和房地产危机结束。1992-2000年的周期以巨大的股票泡沫破裂、广泛的会计欺诈和难以言喻的悲剧而告终。“正常”周期在理论上很好，但在实践中更难。</blockquote></p><p> Instead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.</p><p><blockquote>相反，让我们考虑一下为什么我们使用术语“周期”。经济和市场往往遵循周期性模式，这些模式往往会在市场表现中显现出来。我们关心的是那些模式，如果它们仍然适用，它们可以在不确定的地形中提供有用的指导。</blockquote></p><p> Was last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.</p><p><blockquote>去年的衰退之前是否存在收益率曲线倒挂、低波动性、低失业率、高消费者信心和股市广度收窄等周期后期条件？是的。由此产生的股票、信贷、收益率和收益率曲线的低谷是否符合市场和经济低点之间的通常节奏？他们做到了。随后反弹的领头羊是否是通常的早期周期赢家，如小型股和周期性股票、高收益信贷和工业金属？他们是。</blockquote></p><p> If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are.&nbsp;If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should&nbsp;<i>continue</i>&nbsp;to do so.</p><p><blockquote>如果它像鸭子一样走路，像鸭子一样嘎嘎叫，我们认为这是一个正常的循环。或者这些事情实际上是正常的。如果到目前为止已经发生了很多“正常”的循环行为，那么它应该<i>继续</i>这样做。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see&nbsp;The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，这与市场复苏时的表现模式有关。随着复苏的推进，这些模式应该会发生变化。正如我的同事迈克尔·威尔逊所指出的，我们认为我们正在进入周期中期市场，尽管距离经济活动低点仅16个月。我们看到当前状况与2004年上半年有许多相似之处，2004年上半年是大幅通货再膨胀反弹之后的周期中期。重要的是，尽管最近对增长感到担忧，但我们认为全球复苏将继续推进（见增长恐慌周年纪念，2021年7月11日）。</blockquote></p><p> Because one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.<b>It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.</b></p><p><blockquote>因为人们总能找到适合他们特定周期观点的指标，所以我们长期以来一直是综合指数的粉丝。这就是我们的“周期模型”，它结合了美国宏观、信贷周期和企业侵略性的十个指标，以衡量我们在市场周期中的位置。在2019年6月进入周期后期“低迷”和2020年4月进入周期早期“修复”后，该指数飙升。<b>它上升得如此之快，以至于已经过了下一个阶段（“复苏”），直接进入了“扩张”。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41879c4f66b33597ee236bdd52841004\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Thisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',<b>and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends</b>. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.<b>It also hints at another possibility:&nbsp;this hotter cycle could be shorter.</b>This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.</p><p><blockquote>这很不寻常。“扩张”意味着捕捉“比正常情况更好且正在改善”的条件，<b>自1980年以来，“低迷”结束后平均需要35个月才能实现这一目标</b>它的迅速到来表明，在巨大的政策支持下，经济正在迅速复苏。<b>这也暗示了另一种可能性：这个更热的周期可能会更短。</b>这是我们的论点，它体现在我们的定量测量中。</blockquote></p><p> All this has a number of implications:</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都有许多含义：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>The shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases</b>. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.</li>  <li><b>In many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low</b>. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.</li>  <li><b>In equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios</b>. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.</li>  <li><b>Interest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model</b>. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.</li> </ul> This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>周期越短，信贷相对于其他风险资产越差；信贷从“繁荣”中获得的收益较少，如果下一次衰退提前到来，信贷就会面临风险，并且随着企业信心的增强，信贷将面临更多的供应</b>在我们周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国IG和HY Credit N1200万超额回报分别比平均水平差29个基点和161个基点。</li><li><b>在其中许多时期，尽管违约率仍然很低，但信贷表现却参差不齐</b>投资者应该尝试承担违约风险而不是利差风险：我们的信用策略师喜欢持有CDX HY 0-15%，并用CDX IG付款人利差进行对冲。</li><li><b>在股票方面，我们认为我们的模型支持投资组合更加平衡</b>我们看好美国和欧洲的医疗保健行业，因为该行业具有几个良好的因素：质量、低估值、高利差和低波动性。从全球来看，欧洲和日本的股市往往跑赢“中期周期”，我们认为它们可以再次这样做。</li><li><b>利率对复苏过于悲观。在我们周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国10年期国债1200万奈拉回报率比平均水平低97个基点</b>.Guneet Dhingra和我们的美国利率策略团队在全球资产配置中转移了跑输大盘美国10年期国债，而我们反过来又转移了跑输大盘政府债券。</li></ul>这种循环是不寻常的。大多数“正常”周期都是。我们认为复苏是可持续的，而且更有可能“更热、更短”。出售国债并相信扩张。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146536243","content_text":"We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.\nThe debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.\nBut 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.\nInstead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.\nWas last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.\nIf it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are. If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should continue to do so.\nSpecifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).\nBecause one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.\nThisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.It also hints at another possibility: this hotter cycle could be shorter.This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.\nAll this has a number of implications:\n\nThe shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.\nIn many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.\nIn equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.\nInterest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.\n\nThis cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":339,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":173371103,"gmtCreate":1626623310702,"gmtModify":1631892251572,"author":{"id":"3584416898370318","authorId":"3584416898370318","name":"Yt64","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9824cc246c21cbb20e1583ad744abef8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584416898370318","authorIdStr":"3584416898370318"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like and comment","listText":"Pls like and comment","text":"Pls like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/173371103","repostId":"1183956332","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":791,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":807107926,"gmtCreate":1628003802165,"gmtModify":1631888790670,"author":{"id":"3584416898370318","authorId":"3584416898370318","name":"Yt64","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9824cc246c21cbb20e1583ad744abef8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584416898370318","idStr":"3584416898370318"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls comment and like thx","listText":"Pls comment and like thx","text":"Pls comment and like thx","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":12,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/807107926","repostId":"1124475692","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1124475692","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628003267,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1124475692?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-03 23:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Eli Lilly Earnings Missed Expectations. Why the Stock Is Soaring<blockquote>礼来公司盈利未达预期。股票为何飙升</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124475692","media":"Barron's","summary":"Drug giant Eli Lilly reported weaker-than-expected earnings but the stock is soaring.\nEli Lilly repo","content":"<p>Drug giant Eli Lilly reported weaker-than-expected earnings but the stock is soaring.</p><p><blockquote>制药巨头礼来公司公布的盈利弱于预期，但股价正在飙升。</blockquote></p><p> Eli Lilly reported a year-over-year leap in second-quarter sales, but much of that rise resulted from the world’s restocking since 2020 lockdowns. Sales still grew a respectable 12%, after adjusting for Covid-19’s impact, while earnings matched Wall Street forecasts.</p><p><blockquote>礼来公司(Eli Lilly)报告称，第二季度销售额同比增长，但这一增长很大程度上是由于自2020年封锁以来全球重新进货。在对Covid-19的影响进行调整后，销售额仍增长了12%，而盈利符合华尔街的预测。</blockquote></p><p> Investors were satisfied. Lilly (ticker: LLY) stock is up 4% to $256.53 in Tuesday morning trading, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 0.1% and the S&amp;P 500 is flat.</p><p><blockquote>投资者很满意。礼来公司（股票代码：LLY）股价在周二早盘交易中上涨4%，至256.53美元，道琼斯工业平均指数上涨0.1%，标普500持平。</blockquote></p><p> All told, Lilly’s second-quarter revenue jumped 23% to $6.7 billion. That’s slightly better than the $6.6 billion consensus forecast among analysts tallied at Sentieo.com. The Indianapolis-based company enjoyed strong volume growth. The strong year-over-year comparison benefited from the subdued level of June 2020 business in the Covid lockdown, which sapped $250 million from last year’s quarter, by Lilly estimate. Adjusting for that unusual weakness, as well as one-time benefits in 2021 like the company’s sale of Chinese rights to its erectile dysfunction treatment Cialis, Lilly said that second-quarter sales grew 12%.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，礼来公司第二季度营收跃升23%至67亿美元。这略好于Sentieo.com统计的分析师一致预测的66亿美元。这家总部位于印第安纳波利斯的公司销量增长强劲。强劲的同比比较得益于2020年6月新冠疫情封锁期间业务水平低迷，据礼来公司估计，该业务比去年季度减少了2.5亿美元。礼来公司表示，考虑到这一不寻常的弱点，以及2021年的一次性收益，例如该公司出售其勃起功能障碍治疗药物Cialis的中国权利，第二季度销售额增长了12%。</blockquote></p><p> The company highlighted the strong growth of newer products, like diabetes drug Trulicity, heart drug Jardiance, and psoriasis treatment Taltz. Before year-end 2021, it hopes to file a marketing application for its investigational treatment for Alzheimer’s disease, donanemab. The Food and Drug Administration’s surprise approval of the Alzheimer’s treatment Aduhelm from Biogen (BIIB) has raised investor expectations for other candidates like Lilly’s.</p><p><blockquote>该公司强调了新产品的强劲增长，如糖尿病药物Trulicity、心脏病药物Jardiance和牛皮癣治疗药物Taltz。该公司希望在2021年底前为其阿尔茨海默病研究治疗药物donanemab提交上市申请。美国食品和药物管理局出人意料地批准了百健(BIIB)的阿尔茨海默氏症治疗药物Aduhelm，提高了投资者对礼来公司等其他候选药物的期望。</blockquote></p><p> Earnings in the second quarter were $1.4 billion, or $1.53 per share. Adjusting for noncash and one-time accruals, Lilly says EPS were $1.83, which represented growth of about 30% from the adjusted number for the year-ago second quarter.</p><p><blockquote>第二季度盈利14亿美元，合每股1.53美元。礼来公司表示，调整非现金和一次性应计费用后，每股收益为1.83美元，比去年第二季度调整后的数字增长约30%。</blockquote></p><p> Antibody treatments for Covid have been a boost to Lilly stock in recent quarters. Second-quarter revenue from those treatments was $149 million. The appearance of variant strains of the Covid-causing SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus is a problem for custom-crafted antibody treatments, however. While Lilly says that its two authorized antibody products show laboratory effectiveness against the virus’ worrisome Delta variant, the U.S. government stopped shipments of the Lilly antibodies in June on evidence that they don’t neutralize the Beta and Gamma variants.</p><p><blockquote>最近几个季度，针对新冠病毒的抗体治疗提振了礼来公司的股价。这些治疗的第二季度收入为1.49亿美元。然而，引起新冠病毒的新型冠状病毒冠状病毒变异株的出现对于定制抗体治疗来说是一个问题。虽然礼来公司表示，其两种授权抗体产品在实验室中对该病毒令人担忧的德尔塔变异毒株有效，但美国政府在6月份停止了礼来公司抗体的运输，因为有证据表明它们不能中和β和γ变种。</blockquote></p><p> So Lilly is writing down the value of some antibody inventories, and the write-down led it to revise its earnings guidance for the 2021 year. Profits this year will come in around a midpoint of about $6.83 a share, says Lilly, instead of the previously guided midpoint of $7.13. Apart from the write-down, and other noncash adjustments, however, the midpoint forecast is unchanged, at $7.90 a share.</p><p><blockquote>因此，礼来公司正在减记一些抗体库存的价值，减记导致其修改了2021年的盈利指引。礼来公司表示，今年的利润将在每股6.83美元左右的中点左右，而不是之前指导的7.13美元的中点。然而，除了减记和其他非现金调整外，中点预测保持不变，为每股7.90美元。</blockquote></p><p> Lilly&nbsp;gained&nbsp;4%&nbsp;in&nbsp;morning&nbsp;trading,&nbsp;reached&nbsp;record&nbsp;high.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfc51bbb6cd284c0017ede89c2bc6240\" tg-width=\"946\" tg-height=\"633\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote>礼来公司早盘上涨4%，创历史新高。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Eli Lilly Earnings Missed Expectations. Why the Stock Is Soaring<blockquote>礼来公司盈利未达预期。股票为何飙升</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEli Lilly Earnings Missed Expectations. Why the Stock Is Soaring<blockquote>礼来公司盈利未达预期。股票为何飙升</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barron's</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-03 23:07</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Drug giant Eli Lilly reported weaker-than-expected earnings but the stock is soaring.</p><p><blockquote>制药巨头礼来公司公布的盈利弱于预期，但股价正在飙升。</blockquote></p><p> Eli Lilly reported a year-over-year leap in second-quarter sales, but much of that rise resulted from the world’s restocking since 2020 lockdowns. Sales still grew a respectable 12%, after adjusting for Covid-19’s impact, while earnings matched Wall Street forecasts.</p><p><blockquote>礼来公司(Eli Lilly)报告称，第二季度销售额同比增长，但这一增长很大程度上是由于自2020年封锁以来全球重新进货。在对Covid-19的影响进行调整后，销售额仍增长了12%，而盈利符合华尔街的预测。</blockquote></p><p> Investors were satisfied. Lilly (ticker: LLY) stock is up 4% to $256.53 in Tuesday morning trading, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 0.1% and the S&amp;P 500 is flat.</p><p><blockquote>投资者很满意。礼来公司（股票代码：LLY）股价在周二早盘交易中上涨4%，至256.53美元，道琼斯工业平均指数上涨0.1%，标普500持平。</blockquote></p><p> All told, Lilly’s second-quarter revenue jumped 23% to $6.7 billion. That’s slightly better than the $6.6 billion consensus forecast among analysts tallied at Sentieo.com. The Indianapolis-based company enjoyed strong volume growth. The strong year-over-year comparison benefited from the subdued level of June 2020 business in the Covid lockdown, which sapped $250 million from last year’s quarter, by Lilly estimate. Adjusting for that unusual weakness, as well as one-time benefits in 2021 like the company’s sale of Chinese rights to its erectile dysfunction treatment Cialis, Lilly said that second-quarter sales grew 12%.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，礼来公司第二季度营收跃升23%至67亿美元。这略好于Sentieo.com统计的分析师一致预测的66亿美元。这家总部位于印第安纳波利斯的公司销量增长强劲。强劲的同比比较得益于2020年6月新冠疫情封锁期间业务水平低迷，据礼来公司估计，该业务比去年季度减少了2.5亿美元。礼来公司表示，考虑到这一不寻常的弱点，以及2021年的一次性收益，例如该公司出售其勃起功能障碍治疗药物Cialis的中国权利，第二季度销售额增长了12%。</blockquote></p><p> The company highlighted the strong growth of newer products, like diabetes drug Trulicity, heart drug Jardiance, and psoriasis treatment Taltz. Before year-end 2021, it hopes to file a marketing application for its investigational treatment for Alzheimer’s disease, donanemab. The Food and Drug Administration’s surprise approval of the Alzheimer’s treatment Aduhelm from Biogen (BIIB) has raised investor expectations for other candidates like Lilly’s.</p><p><blockquote>该公司强调了新产品的强劲增长，如糖尿病药物Trulicity、心脏病药物Jardiance和牛皮癣治疗药物Taltz。该公司希望在2021年底前为其阿尔茨海默病研究治疗药物donanemab提交上市申请。美国食品和药物管理局出人意料地批准了百健(BIIB)的阿尔茨海默氏症治疗药物Aduhelm，提高了投资者对礼来公司等其他候选药物的期望。</blockquote></p><p> Earnings in the second quarter were $1.4 billion, or $1.53 per share. Adjusting for noncash and one-time accruals, Lilly says EPS were $1.83, which represented growth of about 30% from the adjusted number for the year-ago second quarter.</p><p><blockquote>第二季度盈利14亿美元，合每股1.53美元。礼来公司表示，调整非现金和一次性应计费用后，每股收益为1.83美元，比去年第二季度调整后的数字增长约30%。</blockquote></p><p> Antibody treatments for Covid have been a boost to Lilly stock in recent quarters. Second-quarter revenue from those treatments was $149 million. The appearance of variant strains of the Covid-causing SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus is a problem for custom-crafted antibody treatments, however. While Lilly says that its two authorized antibody products show laboratory effectiveness against the virus’ worrisome Delta variant, the U.S. government stopped shipments of the Lilly antibodies in June on evidence that they don’t neutralize the Beta and Gamma variants.</p><p><blockquote>最近几个季度，针对新冠病毒的抗体治疗提振了礼来公司的股价。这些治疗的第二季度收入为1.49亿美元。然而，引起新冠病毒的新型冠状病毒冠状病毒变异株的出现对于定制抗体治疗来说是一个问题。虽然礼来公司表示，其两种授权抗体产品在实验室中对该病毒令人担忧的德尔塔变异毒株有效，但美国政府在6月份停止了礼来公司抗体的运输，因为有证据表明它们不能中和β和γ变种。</blockquote></p><p> So Lilly is writing down the value of some antibody inventories, and the write-down led it to revise its earnings guidance for the 2021 year. Profits this year will come in around a midpoint of about $6.83 a share, says Lilly, instead of the previously guided midpoint of $7.13. Apart from the write-down, and other noncash adjustments, however, the midpoint forecast is unchanged, at $7.90 a share.</p><p><blockquote>因此，礼来公司正在减记一些抗体库存的价值，减记导致其修改了2021年的盈利指引。礼来公司表示，今年的利润将在每股6.83美元左右的中点左右，而不是之前指导的7.13美元的中点。然而，除了减记和其他非现金调整外，中点预测保持不变，为每股7.90美元。</blockquote></p><p> Lilly&nbsp;gained&nbsp;4%&nbsp;in&nbsp;morning&nbsp;trading,&nbsp;reached&nbsp;record&nbsp;high.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfc51bbb6cd284c0017ede89c2bc6240\" tg-width=\"946\" tg-height=\"633\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote>礼来公司早盘上涨4%，创历史新高。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/eli-lilly-stock-earnings-sales-51628001381?siteid=yhoof2\">Barron's</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LLY":"礼来"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/eli-lilly-stock-earnings-sales-51628001381?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124475692","content_text":"Drug giant Eli Lilly reported weaker-than-expected earnings but the stock is soaring.\nEli Lilly reported a year-over-year leap in second-quarter sales, but much of that rise resulted from the world’s restocking since 2020 lockdowns. Sales still grew a respectable 12%, after adjusting for Covid-19’s impact, while earnings matched Wall Street forecasts.\nInvestors were satisfied. Lilly (ticker: LLY) stock is up 4% to $256.53 in Tuesday morning trading, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 0.1% and the S&P 500 is flat.\nAll told, Lilly’s second-quarter revenue jumped 23% to $6.7 billion. That’s slightly better than the $6.6 billion consensus forecast among analysts tallied at Sentieo.com. The Indianapolis-based company enjoyed strong volume growth. The strong year-over-year comparison benefited from the subdued level of June 2020 business in the Covid lockdown, which sapped $250 million from last year’s quarter, by Lilly estimate. Adjusting for that unusual weakness, as well as one-time benefits in 2021 like the company’s sale of Chinese rights to its erectile dysfunction treatment Cialis, Lilly said that second-quarter sales grew 12%.\nThe company highlighted the strong growth of newer products, like diabetes drug Trulicity, heart drug Jardiance, and psoriasis treatment Taltz. Before year-end 2021, it hopes to file a marketing application for its investigational treatment for Alzheimer’s disease, donanemab. The Food and Drug Administration’s surprise approval of the Alzheimer’s treatment Aduhelm from Biogen (BIIB) has raised investor expectations for other candidates like Lilly’s.\nEarnings in the second quarter were $1.4 billion, or $1.53 per share. Adjusting for noncash and one-time accruals, Lilly says EPS were $1.83, which represented growth of about 30% from the adjusted number for the year-ago second quarter.\nAntibody treatments for Covid have been a boost to Lilly stock in recent quarters. Second-quarter revenue from those treatments was $149 million. The appearance of variant strains of the Covid-causing SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus is a problem for custom-crafted antibody treatments, however. While Lilly says that its two authorized antibody products show laboratory effectiveness against the virus’ worrisome Delta variant, the U.S. government stopped shipments of the Lilly antibodies in June on evidence that they don’t neutralize the Beta and Gamma variants.\nSo Lilly is writing down the value of some antibody inventories, and the write-down led it to revise its earnings guidance for the 2021 year. Profits this year will come in around a midpoint of about $6.83 a share, says Lilly, instead of the previously guided midpoint of $7.13. Apart from the write-down, and other noncash adjustments, however, the midpoint forecast is unchanged, at $7.90 a share.\nLilly gained 4% in morning trading, reached record high.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LLY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1798,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":834272477,"gmtCreate":1629811034999,"gmtModify":1631888790611,"author":{"id":"3584416898370318","authorId":"3584416898370318","name":"Yt64","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9824cc246c21cbb20e1583ad744abef8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584416898370318","idStr":"3584416898370318"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like and comment","listText":"Pls like and comment","text":"Pls like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/834272477","repostId":"1157804050","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1979,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":142018738,"gmtCreate":1626103522524,"gmtModify":1633930068663,"author":{"id":"3584416898370318","authorId":"3584416898370318","name":"Yt64","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9824cc246c21cbb20e1583ad744abef8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584416898370318","idStr":"3584416898370318"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like and comment","listText":"Pls like and comment","text":"Pls like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/142018738","repostId":"2150531471","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":482,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":175518729,"gmtCreate":1627041079161,"gmtModify":1631892251523,"author":{"id":"3584416898370318","authorId":"3584416898370318","name":"Yt64","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9824cc246c21cbb20e1583ad744abef8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584416898370318","idStr":"3584416898370318"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like and comment&nbsp;","listText":"Pls like and comment&nbsp;","text":"Pls like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/175518729","repostId":"1147980203","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1147980203","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627040384,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1147980203?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-23 19:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon Stock: This Is How Subscriptions Matter<blockquote>亚马逊股票：这就是订阅的重要性</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147980203","media":"The Street","summary":"Amazon’s subscriptions do not amount to much revenue – probably even less so to profits. But the suc","content":"<p>  Amazon’s subscriptions do not amount to much revenue – probably even less so to profits. But the success of the company and the upside to Amazon stock may depend greatly on this business.  Amazon&nbsp;(<b>AMZN</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;is well known for its e-commerce and cloud services. But the company has been diversifying its business model in the past several years and gaining scale. For example, the 200 million Prime accountsmeanthat Amazon’s Prime Video has become one of the most widely available streaming services in the world.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊的订阅并没有带来多少收入，利润可能更少。但该公司的成功和亚马逊股票的上涨可能在很大程度上取决于这项业务。亚马逊（<b>AMZN</b>）-Get Report以其电子商务和云服务而闻名。但该公司在过去几年中一直在实现商业模式多元化并扩大规模。例如，2亿个Prime账户意味着亚马逊的Prime Video已成为世界上使用最广泛的流媒体服务之一。</blockquote></p><p> But if potential investors were to consider buying Amazon stock today, should they focus their due diligence on Amazon’s “side gigs”, particularly subscriptions? Amazon Prime, Prime Video and others: could they be an important piece of the investment thesis?</p><p><blockquote>但如果潜在投资者今天考虑购买亚马逊股票，他们是否应该将尽职调查重点放在亚马逊的“副业”上，特别是订阅？亚马逊Prime、Prime Video和其他：它们能成为投资论文的重要组成部分吗？</blockquote></p><p> <b>A snapshot of Amazon’s businesses</b></p><p><blockquote><b>亚马逊业务概况</b></blockquote></p><p> Around 70% of Amazon’s revenues come from e-commerce, broken into two major categories: 1P and 3P. The first consists of sales made by Amazon itself, while the latter pertains to thirty-party vendors that sell their products through Amazon’s marketplace.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊大约70%的收入来自电子商务，分为两大类：1P和3P。第一个包括亚马逊自己的销售，而后者涉及通过亚马逊市场销售产品的三十方供应商。</blockquote></p><p> Another 12% of Amazon’s revenues come from AWS, the acronym for Amazon Web Service. The segment provides cloud infrastructure services primarily to enterprises and competes with the likes of Microsoft’s Azure.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊另外12%的收入来自AWS，即亚马逊网络服务的缩写。该部门主要向企业提供云基础设施服务，并与微软Azure等公司竞争。</blockquote></p><p> Aside from physical stores and other minor activities, subscriptions account for only around 7% of Amazon’s total revenues – a drop in the bucket.</p><p><blockquote>除了实体店和其他次要活动，订阅仅占亚马逊总收入的7%左右——杯水车薪。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Does it matter?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>这有关系吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> At first glance, even if all of Amazon’s sub revenues were to vanish overnight (not practical, only a thought exercise), the company would still be left with a giant retail and cloud business that grew sales ata dizzying rate of around 40% last quarter. Without subscriptions, Amazon’s Q1 sales would have still increased by a respectable 34% year-over-year -- more so than in any quarter of 2019.</p><p><blockquote>乍一看，即使亚马逊的所有子收入在一夜之间消失（不切实际，只是一个思考练习），该公司仍然会留下一个巨大的零售和云业务，上个季度销售额以令人眼花缭乱的40%左右的速度增长。如果没有订阅，亚马逊第一季度的销售额仍将同比增长34%，增幅高于2019年任何一个季度。</blockquote></p><p> From a number’s perspective, Amazon would probably be fine deemphasizing its subscription businesses to become a pure-play e-commerce and cloud giant. US e-commerce isforecastedto grow 20% by 2025, and Amazon is likely to control a large piece of this expanding market. Worldwide, e-commerce is expected to grow an even better 30%, and Amazon’s footprint expansion opportunities outside North America are substantial.</p><p><blockquote>从一些人的角度来看，亚马逊可能可以淡化其订阅业务，成为一家纯粹的电子商务和云巨头。预计到2025年，美国电子商务将增长20%，亚马逊可能会控制这个不断扩大的市场的很大一部分。在全球范围内，电子商务预计将增长30%，亚马逊在北美以外的足迹扩张机会巨大。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Think bigger picture</b></p><p><blockquote><b>考虑更大的图景</b></blockquote></p><p> The catch is that subscriptions serve as a hook to attract and retain Amazon customers into its retail ecosystem.</p><p><blockquote>问题在于，订阅可以吸引和留住亚马逊客户进入其零售生态系统。</blockquote></p><p> For instance, a Prime subscription brings in no more than $120 per year to Amazon’s coffers. Considering the costly benefits of a Prime account (i.e. fast delivery, access to audio and video content that is expensive to produce), the Seattle-based company probably sees little of the revenue trickling down to earnings.</p><p><blockquote>例如，Prime订阅每年为亚马逊带来的收入不超过120美元。考虑到Prime帐户的昂贵好处（即快速交付、访问制作成本高昂的音频和视频内容），这家总部位于西雅图的公司可能很少有收入会转化为收益。</blockquote></p><p> However, a Prime member is a much better Amazon customer compared to those who do not have a membership. According toForbes, a staggering 96% of all Prime members agree that they are more likely to buy from Amazon than from other e-commerce vendors. See below.</p><p><blockquote>然而，与没有会员的人相比，Prime会员是更好的亚马逊客户。据《福布斯》报道，惊人的是，96%的Prime会员认为他们更有可能从亚马逊购买商品，而不是从其他电子商务供应商那里购买商品。见下文。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/348e859b0c882c8e45d3edc9324f8351\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"314\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">“Ecosystem” may be an overused term, but it seems to be the path to success that Big Tech companies like Amazon have been carving. While the company’s subscription business is far from being a large revenue generator, it probably contributes greatly, although mostly indirectly, to Amazon’s dominance in e-commerce.</p><p><blockquote>“生态系统”可能是一个被过度使用的术语，但它似乎是亚马逊等大型科技公司一直在开辟的成功之路。虽然该公司的订阅业务远不是一个大的收入来源，但它可能对亚马逊在电子商务领域的主导地位做出了巨大贡献，尽管大部分是间接的。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610613172068","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon Stock: This Is How Subscriptions Matter<blockquote>亚马逊股票：这就是订阅的重要性</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon Stock: This Is How Subscriptions Matter<blockquote>亚马逊股票：这就是订阅的重要性</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Street</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-23 19:39</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  Amazon’s subscriptions do not amount to much revenue – probably even less so to profits. But the success of the company and the upside to Amazon stock may depend greatly on this business.  Amazon&nbsp;(<b>AMZN</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;is well known for its e-commerce and cloud services. But the company has been diversifying its business model in the past several years and gaining scale. For example, the 200 million Prime accountsmeanthat Amazon’s Prime Video has become one of the most widely available streaming services in the world.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊的订阅并没有带来多少收入，利润可能更少。但该公司的成功和亚马逊股票的上涨可能在很大程度上取决于这项业务。亚马逊（<b>AMZN</b>）-Get Report以其电子商务和云服务而闻名。但该公司在过去几年中一直在实现商业模式多元化并扩大规模。例如，2亿个Prime账户意味着亚马逊的Prime Video已成为世界上使用最广泛的流媒体服务之一。</blockquote></p><p> But if potential investors were to consider buying Amazon stock today, should they focus their due diligence on Amazon’s “side gigs”, particularly subscriptions? Amazon Prime, Prime Video and others: could they be an important piece of the investment thesis?</p><p><blockquote>但如果潜在投资者今天考虑购买亚马逊股票，他们是否应该将尽职调查重点放在亚马逊的“副业”上，特别是订阅？亚马逊Prime、Prime Video和其他：它们能成为投资论文的重要组成部分吗？</blockquote></p><p> <b>A snapshot of Amazon’s businesses</b></p><p><blockquote><b>亚马逊业务概况</b></blockquote></p><p> Around 70% of Amazon’s revenues come from e-commerce, broken into two major categories: 1P and 3P. The first consists of sales made by Amazon itself, while the latter pertains to thirty-party vendors that sell their products through Amazon’s marketplace.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊大约70%的收入来自电子商务，分为两大类：1P和3P。第一个包括亚马逊自己的销售，而后者涉及通过亚马逊市场销售产品的三十方供应商。</blockquote></p><p> Another 12% of Amazon’s revenues come from AWS, the acronym for Amazon Web Service. The segment provides cloud infrastructure services primarily to enterprises and competes with the likes of Microsoft’s Azure.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊另外12%的收入来自AWS，即亚马逊网络服务的缩写。该部门主要向企业提供云基础设施服务，并与微软Azure等公司竞争。</blockquote></p><p> Aside from physical stores and other minor activities, subscriptions account for only around 7% of Amazon’s total revenues – a drop in the bucket.</p><p><blockquote>除了实体店和其他次要活动，订阅仅占亚马逊总收入的7%左右——杯水车薪。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Does it matter?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>这有关系吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> At first glance, even if all of Amazon’s sub revenues were to vanish overnight (not practical, only a thought exercise), the company would still be left with a giant retail and cloud business that grew sales ata dizzying rate of around 40% last quarter. Without subscriptions, Amazon’s Q1 sales would have still increased by a respectable 34% year-over-year -- more so than in any quarter of 2019.</p><p><blockquote>乍一看，即使亚马逊的所有子收入在一夜之间消失（不切实际，只是一个思考练习），该公司仍然会留下一个巨大的零售和云业务，上个季度销售额以令人眼花缭乱的40%左右的速度增长。如果没有订阅，亚马逊第一季度的销售额仍将同比增长34%，增幅高于2019年任何一个季度。</blockquote></p><p> From a number’s perspective, Amazon would probably be fine deemphasizing its subscription businesses to become a pure-play e-commerce and cloud giant. US e-commerce isforecastedto grow 20% by 2025, and Amazon is likely to control a large piece of this expanding market. Worldwide, e-commerce is expected to grow an even better 30%, and Amazon’s footprint expansion opportunities outside North America are substantial.</p><p><blockquote>从一些人的角度来看，亚马逊可能可以淡化其订阅业务，成为一家纯粹的电子商务和云巨头。预计到2025年，美国电子商务将增长20%，亚马逊可能会控制这个不断扩大的市场的很大一部分。在全球范围内，电子商务预计将增长30%，亚马逊在北美以外的足迹扩张机会巨大。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Think bigger picture</b></p><p><blockquote><b>考虑更大的图景</b></blockquote></p><p> The catch is that subscriptions serve as a hook to attract and retain Amazon customers into its retail ecosystem.</p><p><blockquote>问题在于，订阅可以吸引和留住亚马逊客户进入其零售生态系统。</blockquote></p><p> For instance, a Prime subscription brings in no more than $120 per year to Amazon’s coffers. Considering the costly benefits of a Prime account (i.e. fast delivery, access to audio and video content that is expensive to produce), the Seattle-based company probably sees little of the revenue trickling down to earnings.</p><p><blockquote>例如，Prime订阅每年为亚马逊带来的收入不超过120美元。考虑到Prime帐户的昂贵好处（即快速交付、访问制作成本高昂的音频和视频内容），这家总部位于西雅图的公司可能很少有收入会转化为收益。</blockquote></p><p> However, a Prime member is a much better Amazon customer compared to those who do not have a membership. According toForbes, a staggering 96% of all Prime members agree that they are more likely to buy from Amazon than from other e-commerce vendors. See below.</p><p><blockquote>然而，与没有会员的人相比，Prime会员是更好的亚马逊客户。据《福布斯》报道，惊人的是，96%的Prime会员认为他们更有可能从亚马逊购买商品，而不是从其他电子商务供应商那里购买商品。见下文。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/348e859b0c882c8e45d3edc9324f8351\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"314\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">“Ecosystem” may be an overused term, but it seems to be the path to success that Big Tech companies like Amazon have been carving. While the company’s subscription business is far from being a large revenue generator, it probably contributes greatly, although mostly indirectly, to Amazon’s dominance in e-commerce.</p><p><blockquote>“生态系统”可能是一个被过度使用的术语，但它似乎是亚马逊等大型科技公司一直在开辟的成功之路。虽然该公司的订阅业务远不是一个大的收入来源，但它可能对亚马逊在电子商务领域的主导地位做出了巨大贡献，尽管大部分是间接的。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/amazon/media/amazon-stock-this-is-how-subscriptions-matter\">The Street</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/amazon/media/amazon-stock-this-is-how-subscriptions-matter","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147980203","content_text":"Amazon’s subscriptions do not amount to much revenue – probably even less so to profits. But the success of the company and the upside to Amazon stock may depend greatly on this business.\n\nAmazon (AMZN) -Get Report is well known for its e-commerce and cloud services. But the company has been diversifying its business model in the past several years and gaining scale. For example, the 200 million Prime accountsmeanthat Amazon’s Prime Video has become one of the most widely available streaming services in the world.\nBut if potential investors were to consider buying Amazon stock today, should they focus their due diligence on Amazon’s “side gigs”, particularly subscriptions? Amazon Prime, Prime Video and others: could they be an important piece of the investment thesis?\nA snapshot of Amazon’s businesses\nAround 70% of Amazon’s revenues come from e-commerce, broken into two major categories: 1P and 3P. The first consists of sales made by Amazon itself, while the latter pertains to thirty-party vendors that sell their products through Amazon’s marketplace.\nAnother 12% of Amazon’s revenues come from AWS, the acronym for Amazon Web Service. The segment provides cloud infrastructure services primarily to enterprises and competes with the likes of Microsoft’s Azure.\nAside from physical stores and other minor activities, subscriptions account for only around 7% of Amazon’s total revenues – a drop in the bucket.\nDoes it matter?\nAt first glance, even if all of Amazon’s sub revenues were to vanish overnight (not practical, only a thought exercise), the company would still be left with a giant retail and cloud business that grew sales ata dizzying rate of around 40% last quarter. Without subscriptions, Amazon’s Q1 sales would have still increased by a respectable 34% year-over-year -- more so than in any quarter of 2019.\nFrom a number’s perspective, Amazon would probably be fine deemphasizing its subscription businesses to become a pure-play e-commerce and cloud giant. US e-commerce isforecastedto grow 20% by 2025, and Amazon is likely to control a large piece of this expanding market. Worldwide, e-commerce is expected to grow an even better 30%, and Amazon’s footprint expansion opportunities outside North America are substantial.\nThink bigger picture\nThe catch is that subscriptions serve as a hook to attract and retain Amazon customers into its retail ecosystem.\nFor instance, a Prime subscription brings in no more than $120 per year to Amazon’s coffers. Considering the costly benefits of a Prime account (i.e. fast delivery, access to audio and video content that is expensive to produce), the Seattle-based company probably sees little of the revenue trickling down to earnings.\nHowever, a Prime member is a much better Amazon customer compared to those who do not have a membership. According toForbes, a staggering 96% of all Prime members agree that they are more likely to buy from Amazon than from other e-commerce vendors. See below.\n“Ecosystem” may be an overused term, but it seems to be the path to success that Big Tech companies like Amazon have been carving. While the company’s subscription business is far from being a large revenue generator, it probably contributes greatly, although mostly indirectly, to Amazon’s dominance in e-commerce.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":482,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":116471397,"gmtCreate":1622817218519,"gmtModify":1634097694220,"author":{"id":"3584416898370318","authorId":"3584416898370318","name":"Yt64","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9824cc246c21cbb20e1583ad744abef8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584416898370318","idStr":"3584416898370318"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/116471397","repostId":"1105681635","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1105681635","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622800841,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1105681635?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-04 18:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Top Robinhood Stocks Wall Street Thinks Will Soar 25% or More<blockquote>华尔街认为Robinhood 3只顶级股票将飙升25%或更多</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105681635","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Analysts expect one of them to skyrocket a lot more than 25%.","content":"<p>Robinhood investors like quite a few stocks that aren't exactly favorites for analysts. If memes are floating on the internet about a given stock, there's a pretty good chance that it's popular on Robinhood but not so much on Wall Street.</p><p><blockquote>Robinhood投资者喜欢相当多不是分析师最喜欢的股票。如果互联网上流传着关于某只股票的模因，那么它很有可能在Robinhood上很受欢迎，但在华尔街就没那么受欢迎了。</blockquote></p><p> However, there are also several stocks that retail investors on the commission-free trading platform and analysts alike hold in high regard. Here are three top Robinhood stocks that Wall Street thinks will soar 25% or more.</p><p><blockquote>然而，也有几只股票受到免佣金交易平台上的散户投资者和分析师的高度重视。以下是华尔街认为将飙升25%或更多的三只顶级Robinhood股票。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0548d25733705cf21e71b0a7eaad8add\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1333\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果</b></blockquote></p><p> You might think that with a market cap topping $2 trillion, there's not much room for&nbsp;<b>Apple</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:AAPL)&nbsp;to grow. Analysts would disagree. The average one-year price target for the technology leader reflects a premium of nearly 28% over the current share price.</p><p><blockquote>您可能会认为，市值超过2万亿美元，没有太多空间<b>苹果</b>（纳斯达克：AAPL）成长。分析师不会同意。这家科技领导者的平均一年目标价较当前股价溢价近28%。</blockquote></p><p> Apple is the second-most widely held stock among Robinhood investors. Why? Probably because they realize the incredible moat and growth prospects that Apple enjoys with its iPhone-centric ecosystem.</p><p><blockquote>苹果是Robinhood投资者持有第二多的股票。为什么？可能是因为他们意识到苹果以iPhone为中心的生态系统所享有的令人难以置信的护城河和增长前景。</blockquote></p><p> I think this ecosystem could expand enough for Apple to hit Wall Street's price target. The increased availability of high-speed 5G wireless networks continues to fuel demand for the newer iPhone models. Apple's services and wearables revenue also continues to grow significantly.</p><p><blockquote>我认为这个生态系统可以扩展到足以让苹果达到华尔街的价格目标。高速5G无线网络可用性的提高继续推动对新款iPhone的需求。苹果的服务和可穿戴设备收入也继续大幅增长。</blockquote></p><p> Over the long run, my view is that technological innovations will keep Apple among the favorite stocks for both Robinhood investors and Wall Street analysts. Look for more augmented reality functionality on the way. There's also speculation that Apple could&nbsp;launch a foldable iPhone in 2023. A future market cap of $3 trillion or more isn't out of the question at all.</p><p><blockquote>从长远来看，我的观点是，技术创新将使苹果继续成为Robinhood投资者和华尔街分析师最喜欢的股票之一。寻找更多的增强现实功能。还有人猜测苹果可能会在2023年推出可折叠iPhone。未来市值达到3万亿美元或更多并非不可能。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Amazon.com</b></p><p><blockquote><b>亚马逊</b></blockquote></p><p> Robinhood investors and analysts also agree on another so-called&nbsp;FAANG stock--<b>Amazon.com</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:AMZN). The internet giant ranks as the ninth most popular stock on Robinhood. Analysts think that Amazon's share price could rise 31% over the next 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>Robinhood投资者和分析师还就另一只所谓的FAANG股票达成了一致——<b>亚马逊</b>（纳斯达克：AMZN）。这家互联网巨头在Robinhood上排名第九。分析师认为，未来12个月亚马逊股价可能上涨31%。</blockquote></p><p> There are two key growth drivers that could enable Amazon to deliver that kind of growth. The company's Amazon Web Services (AWS) cloud platform continues to fire on all cylinders and is highly profitable. Amazon is also experiencing strong momentum with its digital advertising business.</p><p><blockquote>有两个关键的增长动力可以使亚马逊实现这种增长。该公司的亚马逊网络服务（AWS）云平台继续全力以赴，利润丰厚。亚马逊的数字广告业务也表现强劲。</blockquote></p><p> Value investor Bill Miller even thinks that these two units&nbsp;could account for most of Amazon's valuation&nbsp;within the next couple of years. He's also bullish about the company's business-to-business and logistics platforms. I suspect Miller's optimism is on point.</p><p><blockquote>价值投资者比尔·米勒甚至认为，这两个部门可能会在未来几年内占亚马逊估值的大部分。他还看好该公司的企业对企业和物流平台。我怀疑米勒的乐观是有道理的。</blockquote></p><p> Don't forget e-commerce, though. Amazon remains the biggest e-commerce company in the world. Online sales still account for less than 14% of total retail sales in the U.S. There's a lot of room for Amazon to run in its core business.</p><p><blockquote>不过，不要忘记电子商务。亚马逊仍然是世界上最大的电子商务公司。在线销售额仍占美国零售总额的比例不到14%。亚马逊的核心业务还有很大的发展空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bionano Genomics</b></p><p><blockquote><b>生物纳米基因组学</b></blockquote></p><p> You might be at least a little surprised by the third top Robinhood stock on our list that Wall Street really likes. The average price target for&nbsp;<b>Bionano Genomics</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:BNGO)&nbsp;is a whopping 80% higher than the stock's current price.</p><p><blockquote>您可能至少会对我们名单上华尔街真正喜欢的第三大罗宾汉股票感到有点惊讶。平均目标价<b>生物纳米基因组学</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：BNGO）比该股当前价格高出80%。</blockquote></p><p> Bionano&nbsp;reported better-than-expected Q1 results&nbsp;in May. Revenue jumped 179% year over year to a record-high $3.2 million. Although the company remained unprofitable, its bottom line moved in the right direction.</p><p><blockquote>Bionano 5月份公布的第一季度业绩好于预期。收入同比增长179%，达到创纪录的320万美元。尽管该公司仍未盈利，但其利润却朝着正确的方向发展。</blockquote></p><p> Customers appear to like Bionano's Saphyr genome mapping system. As the install base grows, the company's recurring revenue from consumables grows. That's the kind of business model that investors hope could really pay off over the long run.</p><p><blockquote>客户似乎喜欢Bionano的Saphyr基因组图谱系统。随着安装基础的增长，公司来自消耗品的经常性收入也在增长。这是投资者希望从长远来看能够真正获得回报的商业模式。</blockquote></p><p> Bionano projects that it will have 150 Saphyr systems in the field by the end of this year, up 50% from the end of 2020. The company also anticipates receiving accreditation for additional laboratory-developed tests for Saphyr soon. Bionano is riskier than Apple or Amazon, but analysts think it could be a huge winner over the near term.</p><p><blockquote>Bionano预计，到今年年底，该领域将拥有150个Saphyr系统，比2020年底增长50%。该公司还预计很快将获得Saphyr其他实验室开发测试的认证。Bionano的风险高于苹果或亚马逊，但分析师认为它可能是短期内的巨大赢家。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Top Robinhood Stocks Wall Street Thinks Will Soar 25% or More<blockquote>华尔街认为Robinhood 3只顶级股票将飙升25%或更多</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Top Robinhood Stocks Wall Street Thinks Will Soar 25% or More<blockquote>华尔街认为Robinhood 3只顶级股票将飙升25%或更多</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-04 18:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Robinhood investors like quite a few stocks that aren't exactly favorites for analysts. If memes are floating on the internet about a given stock, there's a pretty good chance that it's popular on Robinhood but not so much on Wall Street.</p><p><blockquote>Robinhood投资者喜欢相当多不是分析师最喜欢的股票。如果互联网上流传着关于某只股票的模因，那么它很有可能在Robinhood上很受欢迎，但在华尔街就没那么受欢迎了。</blockquote></p><p> However, there are also several stocks that retail investors on the commission-free trading platform and analysts alike hold in high regard. Here are three top Robinhood stocks that Wall Street thinks will soar 25% or more.</p><p><blockquote>然而，也有几只股票受到免佣金交易平台上的散户投资者和分析师的高度重视。以下是华尔街认为将飙升25%或更多的三只顶级Robinhood股票。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0548d25733705cf21e71b0a7eaad8add\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1333\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果</b></blockquote></p><p> You might think that with a market cap topping $2 trillion, there's not much room for&nbsp;<b>Apple</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:AAPL)&nbsp;to grow. Analysts would disagree. The average one-year price target for the technology leader reflects a premium of nearly 28% over the current share price.</p><p><blockquote>您可能会认为，市值超过2万亿美元，没有太多空间<b>苹果</b>（纳斯达克：AAPL）成长。分析师不会同意。这家科技领导者的平均一年目标价较当前股价溢价近28%。</blockquote></p><p> Apple is the second-most widely held stock among Robinhood investors. Why? Probably because they realize the incredible moat and growth prospects that Apple enjoys with its iPhone-centric ecosystem.</p><p><blockquote>苹果是Robinhood投资者持有第二多的股票。为什么？可能是因为他们意识到苹果以iPhone为中心的生态系统所享有的令人难以置信的护城河和增长前景。</blockquote></p><p> I think this ecosystem could expand enough for Apple to hit Wall Street's price target. The increased availability of high-speed 5G wireless networks continues to fuel demand for the newer iPhone models. Apple's services and wearables revenue also continues to grow significantly.</p><p><blockquote>我认为这个生态系统可以扩展到足以让苹果达到华尔街的价格目标。高速5G无线网络可用性的提高继续推动对新款iPhone的需求。苹果的服务和可穿戴设备收入也继续大幅增长。</blockquote></p><p> Over the long run, my view is that technological innovations will keep Apple among the favorite stocks for both Robinhood investors and Wall Street analysts. Look for more augmented reality functionality on the way. There's also speculation that Apple could&nbsp;launch a foldable iPhone in 2023. A future market cap of $3 trillion or more isn't out of the question at all.</p><p><blockquote>从长远来看，我的观点是，技术创新将使苹果继续成为Robinhood投资者和华尔街分析师最喜欢的股票之一。寻找更多的增强现实功能。还有人猜测苹果可能会在2023年推出可折叠iPhone。未来市值达到3万亿美元或更多并非不可能。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Amazon.com</b></p><p><blockquote><b>亚马逊</b></blockquote></p><p> Robinhood investors and analysts also agree on another so-called&nbsp;FAANG stock--<b>Amazon.com</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:AMZN). The internet giant ranks as the ninth most popular stock on Robinhood. Analysts think that Amazon's share price could rise 31% over the next 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>Robinhood投资者和分析师还就另一只所谓的FAANG股票达成了一致——<b>亚马逊</b>（纳斯达克：AMZN）。这家互联网巨头在Robinhood上排名第九。分析师认为，未来12个月亚马逊股价可能上涨31%。</blockquote></p><p> There are two key growth drivers that could enable Amazon to deliver that kind of growth. The company's Amazon Web Services (AWS) cloud platform continues to fire on all cylinders and is highly profitable. Amazon is also experiencing strong momentum with its digital advertising business.</p><p><blockquote>有两个关键的增长动力可以使亚马逊实现这种增长。该公司的亚马逊网络服务（AWS）云平台继续全力以赴，利润丰厚。亚马逊的数字广告业务也表现强劲。</blockquote></p><p> Value investor Bill Miller even thinks that these two units&nbsp;could account for most of Amazon's valuation&nbsp;within the next couple of years. He's also bullish about the company's business-to-business and logistics platforms. I suspect Miller's optimism is on point.</p><p><blockquote>价值投资者比尔·米勒甚至认为，这两个部门可能会在未来几年内占亚马逊估值的大部分。他还看好该公司的企业对企业和物流平台。我怀疑米勒的乐观是有道理的。</blockquote></p><p> Don't forget e-commerce, though. Amazon remains the biggest e-commerce company in the world. Online sales still account for less than 14% of total retail sales in the U.S. There's a lot of room for Amazon to run in its core business.</p><p><blockquote>不过，不要忘记电子商务。亚马逊仍然是世界上最大的电子商务公司。在线销售额仍占美国零售总额的比例不到14%。亚马逊的核心业务还有很大的发展空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bionano Genomics</b></p><p><blockquote><b>生物纳米基因组学</b></blockquote></p><p> You might be at least a little surprised by the third top Robinhood stock on our list that Wall Street really likes. The average price target for&nbsp;<b>Bionano Genomics</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:BNGO)&nbsp;is a whopping 80% higher than the stock's current price.</p><p><blockquote>您可能至少会对我们名单上华尔街真正喜欢的第三大罗宾汉股票感到有点惊讶。平均目标价<b>生物纳米基因组学</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：BNGO）比该股当前价格高出80%。</blockquote></p><p> Bionano&nbsp;reported better-than-expected Q1 results&nbsp;in May. Revenue jumped 179% year over year to a record-high $3.2 million. Although the company remained unprofitable, its bottom line moved in the right direction.</p><p><blockquote>Bionano 5月份公布的第一季度业绩好于预期。收入同比增长179%，达到创纪录的320万美元。尽管该公司仍未盈利，但其利润却朝着正确的方向发展。</blockquote></p><p> Customers appear to like Bionano's Saphyr genome mapping system. As the install base grows, the company's recurring revenue from consumables grows. That's the kind of business model that investors hope could really pay off over the long run.</p><p><blockquote>客户似乎喜欢Bionano的Saphyr基因组图谱系统。随着安装基础的增长，公司来自消耗品的经常性收入也在增长。这是投资者希望从长远来看能够真正获得回报的商业模式。</blockquote></p><p> Bionano projects that it will have 150 Saphyr systems in the field by the end of this year, up 50% from the end of 2020. The company also anticipates receiving accreditation for additional laboratory-developed tests for Saphyr soon. Bionano is riskier than Apple or Amazon, but analysts think it could be a huge winner over the near term.</p><p><blockquote>Bionano预计，到今年年底，该领域将拥有150个Saphyr系统，比2020年底增长50%。该公司还预计很快将获得Saphyr其他实验室开发测试的认证。Bionano的风险高于苹果或亚马逊，但分析师认为它可能是短期内的巨大赢家。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/04/3-top-robinhood-stocks-wall-street-thinks-will-soa/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果","BNGO":"Bionano Genomics","AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/04/3-top-robinhood-stocks-wall-street-thinks-will-soa/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105681635","content_text":"Robinhood investors like quite a few stocks that aren't exactly favorites for analysts. If memes are floating on the internet about a given stock, there's a pretty good chance that it's popular on Robinhood but not so much on Wall Street.\nHowever, there are also several stocks that retail investors on the commission-free trading platform and analysts alike hold in high regard. Here are three top Robinhood stocks that Wall Street thinks will soar 25% or more.\nIMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.\nApple\nYou might think that with a market cap topping $2 trillion, there's not much room for Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) to grow. Analysts would disagree. The average one-year price target for the technology leader reflects a premium of nearly 28% over the current share price.\nApple is the second-most widely held stock among Robinhood investors. Why? Probably because they realize the incredible moat and growth prospects that Apple enjoys with its iPhone-centric ecosystem.\nI think this ecosystem could expand enough for Apple to hit Wall Street's price target. The increased availability of high-speed 5G wireless networks continues to fuel demand for the newer iPhone models. Apple's services and wearables revenue also continues to grow significantly.\nOver the long run, my view is that technological innovations will keep Apple among the favorite stocks for both Robinhood investors and Wall Street analysts. Look for more augmented reality functionality on the way. There's also speculation that Apple could launch a foldable iPhone in 2023. A future market cap of $3 trillion or more isn't out of the question at all.\nAmazon.com\nRobinhood investors and analysts also agree on another so-called FAANG stock--Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN). The internet giant ranks as the ninth most popular stock on Robinhood. Analysts think that Amazon's share price could rise 31% over the next 12 months.\nThere are two key growth drivers that could enable Amazon to deliver that kind of growth. The company's Amazon Web Services (AWS) cloud platform continues to fire on all cylinders and is highly profitable. Amazon is also experiencing strong momentum with its digital advertising business.\nValue investor Bill Miller even thinks that these two units could account for most of Amazon's valuation within the next couple of years. He's also bullish about the company's business-to-business and logistics platforms. I suspect Miller's optimism is on point.\nDon't forget e-commerce, though. Amazon remains the biggest e-commerce company in the world. Online sales still account for less than 14% of total retail sales in the U.S. There's a lot of room for Amazon to run in its core business.\nBionano Genomics\nYou might be at least a little surprised by the third top Robinhood stock on our list that Wall Street really likes. The average price target for Bionano Genomics (NASDAQ:BNGO) is a whopping 80% higher than the stock's current price.\nBionano reported better-than-expected Q1 results in May. Revenue jumped 179% year over year to a record-high $3.2 million. Although the company remained unprofitable, its bottom line moved in the right direction.\nCustomers appear to like Bionano's Saphyr genome mapping system. As the install base grows, the company's recurring revenue from consumables grows. That's the kind of business model that investors hope could really pay off over the long run.\nBionano projects that it will have 150 Saphyr systems in the field by the end of this year, up 50% from the end of 2020. The company also anticipates receiving accreditation for additional laboratory-developed tests for Saphyr soon. Bionano is riskier than Apple or Amazon, but analysts think it could be a huge winner over the near term.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9,"BNGO":0.9,"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":285,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":113745576,"gmtCreate":1622642249595,"gmtModify":1634099660605,"author":{"id":"3584416898370318","authorId":"3584416898370318","name":"Yt64","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9824cc246c21cbb20e1583ad744abef8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584416898370318","idStr":"3584416898370318"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment","listText":"Comment","text":"Comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/113745576","repostId":"1188552613","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1188552613","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622627641,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1188552613?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-02 17:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMC Stock Is Surging Again. How to Make Sense of the Move.<blockquote>AMC股价再次飙升。如何理解这一举动。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188552613","media":"Barrons","summary":"AMC Entertainment‘s skyrocketing stock price would be easy to dismiss as just meme-trade madness, th","content":"<p>AMC Entertainment‘s skyrocketing stock price would be easy to dismiss as just meme-trade madness, that social media-fueled investor frenzy that has launched the likes of&nbsp;GameStop&nbsp;and&nbsp;BlackBerry&nbsp;into speculative territory.</p><p><blockquote>AMC院线股价飙升很容易被视为迷因交易疯狂，社交媒体推动的投资者狂热将游戏驿站和黑莓等公司带入了投机领域。</blockquote></p><p> But it’s possible that traditional investors have missed a fundamental change in the movie theater business—and it wouldn’t be the first time.</p><p><blockquote>但传统投资者可能错过了电影院业务的根本性变化——而且这已经不是第一次了。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of AMC (ticker: AMC) surged 23% on Tuesday, closing at $32.04—just off an all-time high of $36.72 set in late May. That puts the movie-theater chain’s market capitalization at roughly $16 billion, more than 15 times what it was in 2018, a record-breaking year at the box office.&nbsp;Shares were up another 34%, to $42.92, in premarket trading Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>AMC（股票代码：AMC）股价周二飙升23%，收于32.04美元，略低于5月底创下的36.72美元的历史高点。这使得这家连锁影院的市值约为160亿美元，是2018年票房破纪录的一年的15倍多。周三盘前交易中，该公司股价又上涨34%，至42.92美元。</blockquote></p><p> Even if investors missed an inflection point, though, the math doesn’t add up. The reason might be that market cap isn’t the right measure. Maybe it’s enterprise value, which is essentially market cap and debt. AMC’s enterprise value is about $26 billion, compared with $6.2 billion or so at the end of 2018.</p><p><blockquote>不过，即使投资者错过了拐点，数学也不成立。原因可能是市值不是正确的衡量标准。也许是企业价值，本质上是市值和债务。AMC的企业价值约为260亿美元，而2018年底为62亿美元左右。</blockquote></p><p> AMC added debt during the pandemic as theaters in the country’s biggest cities were dark for months. And the numbers make it easy to understand why: The U.S. box office in 2020 generated about $2.1 billion in ticket sales, down 81% from the 2018 record of $11.9 billion.</p><p><blockquote>AMC在疫情期间增加了债务，因为该国最大城市的影院连续几个月处于黑暗之中。这些数字很容易理解原因：2020年美国票房收入约为21亿美元，比2018年创纪录的119亿美元下降了81%。</blockquote></p><p> So, it seems investors have been vexed by movie theater economics. But it wouldn’t be the first time. The industry essentially went belly up at the turn of the millennium. Regal Cinemas, for instance, declared bankruptcy in 2001.</p><p><blockquote>因此，投资者似乎对电影院经济感到恼火。但这不是第一次了。这个行业在世纪之交基本上破产了。例如，富豪影院于2001年宣布破产。</blockquote></p><p> Back then, the industry had plenty of capacity because of a new theater design—stadium seating that gave a better view of the screen. That shift meant movie theater chains had to renovate or risk losing all their patrons to movie theaters that offered the better view. In the end, too many seats and not enough patrons meant the return on the stadium-seating investments never materialized.</p><p><blockquote>当时，该行业有足够的容量，因为一种新的剧院设计——体育场座位可以更好地观看屏幕。这种转变意味着连锁电影院必须翻新，否则就有可能失去所有顾客到视野更好的电影院。最终，太多的座位和不够的顾客意味着体育场座位投资的回报从未实现。</blockquote></p><p> The upshot was consolidation. With fewer operators, the number of screens stabilized. Between 2002 and 2007, Regal Cinemas became a cash-generating machine because the stock was mispriced. The stock returned 21% a year on average. The S&amp;P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average both returned less than 9% a year on average over the same period.</p><p><blockquote>结果是整合。随着操作员的减少，屏幕数量稳定下来。2002年至2007年间，Regal Cinemas因股票定价错误而成为现金产生机器。该股平均每年回报率为21%。同期，标普500和道琼斯工业平均指数的平均年回报率均低于9%。</blockquote></p><p> In those days, Regal Cinema’s enterprise value about $5 billion, or about 50% of total U.S. box office sales. That’s far short of AMC today. Something new has to be different for AMC to be worth it.</p><p><blockquote>当年，富豪影院的企业价值约为50亿美元，约占美国票房总收入的50%。这与今天的AMC相去甚远。新的东西必须与众不同，AMC才值得。</blockquote></p><p> Maybe the movie theater business is going to go through another period of consolidation, which can usher in another golden age of returns. AMC’s Tuesday gains, in fact, were catalyzed by new capital raised so the company could go on the offensive, acquiring defunct chains. Monopolies, after all, can be good for stock returns.</p><p><blockquote>也许电影院业务又要经历一段盘整期，可以迎来又一个回报的黄金时代。事实上，AMC周二的上涨是由筹集的新资金推动的，因此该公司可以继续进攻，收购已倒闭的连锁店。毕竟，垄断有利于股票回报。</blockquote></p><p> If AMC can increase market share and the U.S. box office sales can return to 2018 levels in a few years, total sales at might be $9 billion—$6 billion from tickets and $3 billion from concessions. Sales in 2018 amounted to $5.5 billion.</p><p><blockquote>如果AMC能够增加市场份额，并且美国票房销售额能够在几年内恢复到2018年的水平，那么总销售额可能会达到90亿美元——60亿美元来自门票，30亿美元来自特许经营。2018年销售额达55亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Then, with better gross profit margins derived from larger scale, AMC might be able to generate $600 million in free cash flow annually, which puts the stock at about a 4% free cash flow yield. The S&amp;P 500 trades for about a 3% free cash flow yield. The numbers can work—if they’re stretched.</p><p><blockquote>然后，随着规模的扩大带来更好的毛利率，AMC每年可能能够产生6亿美元的自由现金流，这使得该股的自由现金流收益率约为4%。标普500的自由现金流收益率约为3%。这些数字可以发挥作用——如果它们被拉伸的话。</blockquote></p><p> There are problems with this scenario, though. There are lots of ifs and mights—and AMC has never generated cash flow like that in the past. Arriving at $600 million in free cash flow is more about justifying current valuations than predicting what is likely.</p><p><blockquote>不过，这种情况存在问题。有很多如果和可能——AMC过去从未产生过这样的现金流。达到6亿美元的自由现金流更多的是为了证明当前估值的合理性，而不是预测可能发生的情况。</blockquote></p><p> Also, with mergers and acquisitions, AMC market shares might rise, but there are still competitors. Regal Cinemas is still out there, owned by Cineworld Holdings (CINE. London). So is Cinemark (CNK). There’s not a true monopoly.</p><p><blockquote>此外，通过并购，AMC的市场份额可能会上升，但仍然存在竞争对手。富豪影院仍然存在，归电影世界控股公司所有。伦敦）。喜满客（CNK）也是如此。没有真正的垄断。</blockquote></p><p> AMC and its peers have to deal with streaming, too. Windows for exclusive theater showings are shrinking. The pandemic has accelerated that. And if AMC gets too large and demanding for movie makers, the talent can always go to streaming faster, hurting box office sales.</p><p><blockquote>AMC及其同行也必须应对流媒体问题。独家影院放映的窗口正在缩小。疫情加速了这一点。如果AMC变得太大，对电影制作人的要求太高，人才总是可以更快地转向流媒体，从而损害票房销售。</blockquote></p><p> There is also the problem of the peer stocks. They aren’t trading like this is a brave new world for theaters. Cineworld stock is up 484% from its 52-week low, but shares are still off 72% from all-time highs. Cinemark shares are up 222% from their 52-week low. They are down 47% from their all-time high.</p><p><blockquote>还有同行股票的问题。他们并不认为这是剧院的一个勇敢的新世界。Cineworld股价较52周低点上涨484%，但仍较历史高点下跌72%。喜满客股价较52周低点上涨222%。它们比历史高点下跌了47%。</blockquote></p><p> AMC stock, again, is up almost 1,600% from its 52-week low and is down just 13% from its May all-time high.</p><p><blockquote>AMC股价再次较52周低点上涨近1,600%，较5月份历史高点仅下跌13%。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street just doesn’t see the potential either. Nine analysts cover the stock. The average analyst price target is about $5. Before the pandemic, the average analyst price target was $15. But there were fewer shares back then. The old target enterprise value was roughly $7 billion. It’s tough to get from $7 billion to $26 billion predicting better margins.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街也没有看到潜力。九名分析师关注该股。分析师平均目标价约为5美元。在疫情爆发之前，分析师的平均目标价为15美元。但当时股票较少。旧的目标企业价值约为70亿美元。很难从70亿美元增加到260亿美元来预测更好的利润率。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Analysts do have positive free cash flow modeled, though–$13 million in 2022 and $90 million in 2023. That’s a long way from $600 million.</p><p><blockquote>不过，分析师确实模拟了正自由现金流——2022年为1300万美元，2023年为9000万美元。这距离6亿美元还有很长的路要走。</blockquote></p><p> And that’s just another way of saying that AMC bulls are a long way from making the math work.</p><p><blockquote>这只是AMC多头距离实现数学计算还有很长的路要走的另一种说法。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMC Stock Is Surging Again. How to Make Sense of the Move.<blockquote>AMC股价再次飙升。如何理解这一举动。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMC Stock Is Surging Again. How to Make Sense of the Move.<blockquote>AMC股价再次飙升。如何理解这一举动。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-02 17:54</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>AMC Entertainment‘s skyrocketing stock price would be easy to dismiss as just meme-trade madness, that social media-fueled investor frenzy that has launched the likes of&nbsp;GameStop&nbsp;and&nbsp;BlackBerry&nbsp;into speculative territory.</p><p><blockquote>AMC院线股价飙升很容易被视为迷因交易疯狂，社交媒体推动的投资者狂热将游戏驿站和黑莓等公司带入了投机领域。</blockquote></p><p> But it’s possible that traditional investors have missed a fundamental change in the movie theater business—and it wouldn’t be the first time.</p><p><blockquote>但传统投资者可能错过了电影院业务的根本性变化——而且这已经不是第一次了。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of AMC (ticker: AMC) surged 23% on Tuesday, closing at $32.04—just off an all-time high of $36.72 set in late May. That puts the movie-theater chain’s market capitalization at roughly $16 billion, more than 15 times what it was in 2018, a record-breaking year at the box office.&nbsp;Shares were up another 34%, to $42.92, in premarket trading Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>AMC（股票代码：AMC）股价周二飙升23%，收于32.04美元，略低于5月底创下的36.72美元的历史高点。这使得这家连锁影院的市值约为160亿美元，是2018年票房破纪录的一年的15倍多。周三盘前交易中，该公司股价又上涨34%，至42.92美元。</blockquote></p><p> Even if investors missed an inflection point, though, the math doesn’t add up. The reason might be that market cap isn’t the right measure. Maybe it’s enterprise value, which is essentially market cap and debt. AMC’s enterprise value is about $26 billion, compared with $6.2 billion or so at the end of 2018.</p><p><blockquote>不过，即使投资者错过了拐点，数学也不成立。原因可能是市值不是正确的衡量标准。也许是企业价值，本质上是市值和债务。AMC的企业价值约为260亿美元，而2018年底为62亿美元左右。</blockquote></p><p> AMC added debt during the pandemic as theaters in the country’s biggest cities were dark for months. And the numbers make it easy to understand why: The U.S. box office in 2020 generated about $2.1 billion in ticket sales, down 81% from the 2018 record of $11.9 billion.</p><p><blockquote>AMC在疫情期间增加了债务，因为该国最大城市的影院连续几个月处于黑暗之中。这些数字很容易理解原因：2020年美国票房收入约为21亿美元，比2018年创纪录的119亿美元下降了81%。</blockquote></p><p> So, it seems investors have been vexed by movie theater economics. But it wouldn’t be the first time. The industry essentially went belly up at the turn of the millennium. Regal Cinemas, for instance, declared bankruptcy in 2001.</p><p><blockquote>因此，投资者似乎对电影院经济感到恼火。但这不是第一次了。这个行业在世纪之交基本上破产了。例如，富豪影院于2001年宣布破产。</blockquote></p><p> Back then, the industry had plenty of capacity because of a new theater design—stadium seating that gave a better view of the screen. That shift meant movie theater chains had to renovate or risk losing all their patrons to movie theaters that offered the better view. In the end, too many seats and not enough patrons meant the return on the stadium-seating investments never materialized.</p><p><blockquote>当时，该行业有足够的容量，因为一种新的剧院设计——体育场座位可以更好地观看屏幕。这种转变意味着连锁电影院必须翻新，否则就有可能失去所有顾客到视野更好的电影院。最终，太多的座位和不够的顾客意味着体育场座位投资的回报从未实现。</blockquote></p><p> The upshot was consolidation. With fewer operators, the number of screens stabilized. Between 2002 and 2007, Regal Cinemas became a cash-generating machine because the stock was mispriced. The stock returned 21% a year on average. The S&amp;P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average both returned less than 9% a year on average over the same period.</p><p><blockquote>结果是整合。随着操作员的减少，屏幕数量稳定下来。2002年至2007年间，Regal Cinemas因股票定价错误而成为现金产生机器。该股平均每年回报率为21%。同期，标普500和道琼斯工业平均指数的平均年回报率均低于9%。</blockquote></p><p> In those days, Regal Cinema’s enterprise value about $5 billion, or about 50% of total U.S. box office sales. That’s far short of AMC today. Something new has to be different for AMC to be worth it.</p><p><blockquote>当年，富豪影院的企业价值约为50亿美元，约占美国票房总收入的50%。这与今天的AMC相去甚远。新的东西必须与众不同，AMC才值得。</blockquote></p><p> Maybe the movie theater business is going to go through another period of consolidation, which can usher in another golden age of returns. AMC’s Tuesday gains, in fact, were catalyzed by new capital raised so the company could go on the offensive, acquiring defunct chains. Monopolies, after all, can be good for stock returns.</p><p><blockquote>也许电影院业务又要经历一段盘整期，可以迎来又一个回报的黄金时代。事实上，AMC周二的上涨是由筹集的新资金推动的，因此该公司可以继续进攻，收购已倒闭的连锁店。毕竟，垄断有利于股票回报。</blockquote></p><p> If AMC can increase market share and the U.S. box office sales can return to 2018 levels in a few years, total sales at might be $9 billion—$6 billion from tickets and $3 billion from concessions. Sales in 2018 amounted to $5.5 billion.</p><p><blockquote>如果AMC能够增加市场份额，并且美国票房销售额能够在几年内恢复到2018年的水平，那么总销售额可能会达到90亿美元——60亿美元来自门票，30亿美元来自特许经营。2018年销售额达55亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Then, with better gross profit margins derived from larger scale, AMC might be able to generate $600 million in free cash flow annually, which puts the stock at about a 4% free cash flow yield. The S&amp;P 500 trades for about a 3% free cash flow yield. The numbers can work—if they’re stretched.</p><p><blockquote>然后，随着规模的扩大带来更好的毛利率，AMC每年可能能够产生6亿美元的自由现金流，这使得该股的自由现金流收益率约为4%。标普500的自由现金流收益率约为3%。这些数字可以发挥作用——如果它们被拉伸的话。</blockquote></p><p> There are problems with this scenario, though. There are lots of ifs and mights—and AMC has never generated cash flow like that in the past. Arriving at $600 million in free cash flow is more about justifying current valuations than predicting what is likely.</p><p><blockquote>不过，这种情况存在问题。有很多如果和可能——AMC过去从未产生过这样的现金流。达到6亿美元的自由现金流更多的是为了证明当前估值的合理性，而不是预测可能发生的情况。</blockquote></p><p> Also, with mergers and acquisitions, AMC market shares might rise, but there are still competitors. Regal Cinemas is still out there, owned by Cineworld Holdings (CINE. London). So is Cinemark (CNK). There’s not a true monopoly.</p><p><blockquote>此外，通过并购，AMC的市场份额可能会上升，但仍然存在竞争对手。富豪影院仍然存在，归电影世界控股公司所有。伦敦）。喜满客（CNK）也是如此。没有真正的垄断。</blockquote></p><p> AMC and its peers have to deal with streaming, too. Windows for exclusive theater showings are shrinking. The pandemic has accelerated that. And if AMC gets too large and demanding for movie makers, the talent can always go to streaming faster, hurting box office sales.</p><p><blockquote>AMC及其同行也必须应对流媒体问题。独家影院放映的窗口正在缩小。疫情加速了这一点。如果AMC变得太大，对电影制作人的要求太高，人才总是可以更快地转向流媒体，从而损害票房销售。</blockquote></p><p> There is also the problem of the peer stocks. They aren’t trading like this is a brave new world for theaters. Cineworld stock is up 484% from its 52-week low, but shares are still off 72% from all-time highs. Cinemark shares are up 222% from their 52-week low. They are down 47% from their all-time high.</p><p><blockquote>还有同行股票的问题。他们并不认为这是剧院的一个勇敢的新世界。Cineworld股价较52周低点上涨484%，但仍较历史高点下跌72%。喜满客股价较52周低点上涨222%。它们比历史高点下跌了47%。</blockquote></p><p> AMC stock, again, is up almost 1,600% from its 52-week low and is down just 13% from its May all-time high.</p><p><blockquote>AMC股价再次较52周低点上涨近1,600%，较5月份历史高点仅下跌13%。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street just doesn’t see the potential either. Nine analysts cover the stock. The average analyst price target is about $5. Before the pandemic, the average analyst price target was $15. But there were fewer shares back then. The old target enterprise value was roughly $7 billion. It’s tough to get from $7 billion to $26 billion predicting better margins.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街也没有看到潜力。九名分析师关注该股。分析师平均目标价约为5美元。在疫情爆发之前，分析师的平均目标价为15美元。但当时股票较少。旧的目标企业价值约为70亿美元。很难从70亿美元增加到260亿美元来预测更好的利润率。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Analysts do have positive free cash flow modeled, though–$13 million in 2022 and $90 million in 2023. That’s a long way from $600 million.</p><p><blockquote>不过，分析师确实模拟了正自由现金流——2022年为1300万美元，2023年为9000万美元。这距离6亿美元还有很长的路要走。</blockquote></p><p> And that’s just another way of saying that AMC bulls are a long way from making the math work.</p><p><blockquote>这只是AMC多头距离实现数学计算还有很长的路要走的另一种说法。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/amc-rockets-higher-is-it-worth-it-maybe-51622594691?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/amc-rockets-higher-is-it-worth-it-maybe-51622594691?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188552613","content_text":"AMC Entertainment‘s skyrocketing stock price would be easy to dismiss as just meme-trade madness, that social media-fueled investor frenzy that has launched the likes of GameStop and BlackBerry into speculative territory.\nBut it’s possible that traditional investors have missed a fundamental change in the movie theater business—and it wouldn’t be the first time.\nShares of AMC (ticker: AMC) surged 23% on Tuesday, closing at $32.04—just off an all-time high of $36.72 set in late May. That puts the movie-theater chain’s market capitalization at roughly $16 billion, more than 15 times what it was in 2018, a record-breaking year at the box office. Shares were up another 34%, to $42.92, in premarket trading Wednesday.\nEven if investors missed an inflection point, though, the math doesn’t add up. The reason might be that market cap isn’t the right measure. Maybe it’s enterprise value, which is essentially market cap and debt. AMC’s enterprise value is about $26 billion, compared with $6.2 billion or so at the end of 2018.\nAMC added debt during the pandemic as theaters in the country’s biggest cities were dark for months. And the numbers make it easy to understand why: The U.S. box office in 2020 generated about $2.1 billion in ticket sales, down 81% from the 2018 record of $11.9 billion.\nSo, it seems investors have been vexed by movie theater economics. But it wouldn’t be the first time. The industry essentially went belly up at the turn of the millennium. Regal Cinemas, for instance, declared bankruptcy in 2001.\nBack then, the industry had plenty of capacity because of a new theater design—stadium seating that gave a better view of the screen. That shift meant movie theater chains had to renovate or risk losing all their patrons to movie theaters that offered the better view. In the end, too many seats and not enough patrons meant the return on the stadium-seating investments never materialized.\nThe upshot was consolidation. With fewer operators, the number of screens stabilized. Between 2002 and 2007, Regal Cinemas became a cash-generating machine because the stock was mispriced. The stock returned 21% a year on average. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average both returned less than 9% a year on average over the same period.\nIn those days, Regal Cinema’s enterprise value about $5 billion, or about 50% of total U.S. box office sales. That’s far short of AMC today. Something new has to be different for AMC to be worth it.\nMaybe the movie theater business is going to go through another period of consolidation, which can usher in another golden age of returns. AMC’s Tuesday gains, in fact, were catalyzed by new capital raised so the company could go on the offensive, acquiring defunct chains. Monopolies, after all, can be good for stock returns.\nIf AMC can increase market share and the U.S. box office sales can return to 2018 levels in a few years, total sales at might be $9 billion—$6 billion from tickets and $3 billion from concessions. Sales in 2018 amounted to $5.5 billion.\nThen, with better gross profit margins derived from larger scale, AMC might be able to generate $600 million in free cash flow annually, which puts the stock at about a 4% free cash flow yield. The S&P 500 trades for about a 3% free cash flow yield. The numbers can work—if they’re stretched.\nThere are problems with this scenario, though. There are lots of ifs and mights—and AMC has never generated cash flow like that in the past. Arriving at $600 million in free cash flow is more about justifying current valuations than predicting what is likely.\nAlso, with mergers and acquisitions, AMC market shares might rise, but there are still competitors. Regal Cinemas is still out there, owned by Cineworld Holdings (CINE. London). So is Cinemark (CNK). There’s not a true monopoly.\nAMC and its peers have to deal with streaming, too. Windows for exclusive theater showings are shrinking. The pandemic has accelerated that. And if AMC gets too large and demanding for movie makers, the talent can always go to streaming faster, hurting box office sales.\nThere is also the problem of the peer stocks. They aren’t trading like this is a brave new world for theaters. Cineworld stock is up 484% from its 52-week low, but shares are still off 72% from all-time highs. Cinemark shares are up 222% from their 52-week low. They are down 47% from their all-time high.\nAMC stock, again, is up almost 1,600% from its 52-week low and is down just 13% from its May all-time high.\nWall Street just doesn’t see the potential either. Nine analysts cover the stock. The average analyst price target is about $5. Before the pandemic, the average analyst price target was $15. But there were fewer shares back then. The old target enterprise value was roughly $7 billion. It’s tough to get from $7 billion to $26 billion predicting better margins.\nAnalysts do have positive free cash flow modeled, though–$13 million in 2022 and $90 million in 2023. That’s a long way from $600 million.\nAnd that’s just another way of saying that AMC bulls are a long way from making the math work.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":519,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":810533656,"gmtCreate":1629985723675,"gmtModify":1704954180013,"author":{"id":"3584416898370318","authorId":"3584416898370318","name":"Yt64","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9824cc246c21cbb20e1583ad744abef8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584416898370318","idStr":"3584416898370318"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like and comment thx","listText":"Pls like and comment thx","text":"Pls like and comment thx","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/810533656","repostId":"1120391898","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1120391898","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1629984746,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1120391898?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-26 21:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"S&P 500 opens flat near a record as investors await Fed summit<blockquote>投资者等待美联储峰会，标普500开盘持平，接近历史新高</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120391898","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"The S&P 500 was little changed Thursday morning, following the benchmark's rally above the 4,500 lev","content":"<p>The S&amp;P 500 was little changed Thursday morning, following the benchmark's rally above the 4,500 level for the first time ever in the prior session, as investors await the Federal Reserve's annual symposium on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>周四上午，标普500几乎没有变化，此前该基准指数在前一交易日首次升至4,500点上方，投资者等待周五的美联储年度研讨会。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose about 24 points, or 0.1%. The S&amp;P 500 lost 0.08% and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.09%.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数上涨约24点，涨幅0.1%。标普500下跌0.08%，纳斯达克综合指数下跌0.09%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aeb3e35b07de26deb37e5b218327ded1\" tg-width=\"1038\" tg-height=\"492\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Weekly initial jobless claims&nbsp;came in at 353,000, the Labor Department reported Thursday morning, a slight increase from the prior week’s 349,000. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected 350,000 Americans filed for unemployment last week.</p><p><blockquote>美国劳工部周四上午报告称，每周首次申请失业救济人数为353,000人，较前一周的349,000人略有增加。道琼斯调查的经济学家预计上周有35万美国人申请失业救济。</blockquote></p><p> Economic&nbsp;growth totaled 6.6%&nbsp;in the second quarter, according to the Commerce Department’s second estimate Thursday. That was a slight revision upward from the 6.5% annual increase&nbsp;previously reported&nbsp;but slightly lower than the Dow Jones estimate of 6.7%.</p><p><blockquote>根据商务部周四的第二次估计，第二季度经济增长总计6.6%。这比之前报告的6.5%的年增长率略有上调，但略低于道琼斯6.7%的预期。</blockquote></p><p> The highly anticipated Jackson Hole symposium from the Federal Reserve will be held virtually this year on Friday, with many central bank speakers making remarks to the media beginning Thursday. At the event, central bankers could provide updates on their plan around tapering monetary stimulus.</p><p><blockquote>备受期待的美联储杰克逊霍尔研讨会实际上将于今年周五举行，许多央行发言人将从周四开始向媒体发表讲话。在此次活动中，央行行长可以提供有关缩减货币刺激计划的最新信息。</blockquote></p><p> Esther George, president of the Kansas City Fed, told CNBC Thursday morning that “given the progress we’ve seen,” Fed&nbsp;tapering is “appropriate,”though she didn’t specify when she thinks it should start.</p><p><blockquote>堪萨斯城联储主席埃丝特·乔治(Esther George)周四上午对CNBC表示，“鉴于我们所看到的进展”，美联储缩减购债规模是“适当的”，但她没有具体说明她认为何时应该开始。</blockquote></p><p> “When you look at the job gains we saw last month, the month before, you look at the level of inflation right now, I think it would suggest that the level of accommodation we’re providing right now is probably not needed in this scenario,” she said. “So I would be ready to talk about taper sooner rather than later.”</p><p><blockquote>“当你看看我们上个月、前一个月看到的就业增长，看看现在的通胀水平，我认为这表明我们现在提供的便利水平在这种情况下可能不需要，”她说。“所以我准备好尽早谈论缩减规模。”</blockquote></p><p> Shares of&nbsp;Salesforce&nbsp;rose nearly 4% on&nbsp;fiscal second-quarter earnings&nbsp;and forward guidance that exceeded analysts' estimates.Ulta Beauty&nbsp;rose more than 1% after reporting strong results.</p><p><blockquote>由于第二财季盈利和前瞻性指引超出分析师预期，Salesforce股价上涨近4%。Ulta Beauty在公布强劲业绩后上涨超过1%。</blockquote></p><p> Zoom Video shares jumped more than 5%&nbsp;after Morgan Stanley upgraded the stockand predicted 18% upside.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利上调Zoom Video股票评级并预计上涨18%后，该股股价上涨超过5%。</blockquote></p><p> On&nbsp;Wednesday, the S&amp;P 500 gained 0.22% to close at a record, led by stocks that benefit from the economic reopening like airlines, cruise lines and financials. The 500-stock average crossed the 4,500 threshold for the first time ever on Wednesday, but closed below that level. The benchmark is up 105% from its pandemic low.</p><p><blockquote>周三，标普500上涨0.22%，收于创纪录水平，航空、邮轮和金融股等受益于经济重新开放的股票领涨。周三，500只股票平均指数首次突破4,500点大关，但收盘低于该水平。该基准较大流行低点上涨了105%。</blockquote></p><p> The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.15%, also notching a record close. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 39 points.</p><p><blockquote>纳斯达克综合指数上涨0.15%，也创下收盘纪录。道琼斯工业平均指数上涨39点。</blockquote></p><p> “While we remain believers in the secular bull market for US equities, we have suggested raising some cash in U.S. equities given lower highs (aka bearish divergences) across a variety of indicators, weaker August-October seasonality, the Presidential Cycle moving into its weakest period and bearish signals from margin debt,” wrote Stephen Suttmeier, technical research strategist at Bank of America.</p><p><blockquote>“虽然我们仍然相信美国股市的长期牛市，但鉴于各种指标的高点较低（又称看跌背离）、8月至10月季节性较弱、总统周期进入最弱时期，我们建议在美国股市筹集一些现金。美国银行技术研究策略师斯蒂芬·萨特迈尔（Stephen Suttmeier）写道：“美国股市出现最弱时期以及保证金债务的看跌信号。”</blockquote></p><p> The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose as high as 1.352% Wednesday as concerns about slowing growth from the delta variant eased, hitting its highest level since earlier in the month when it yielded as much as 1.364%.</p><p><blockquote>由于对德尔塔变异毒株增长放缓的担忧缓解，基准10年期国债收益率周三升至1.352%，触及本月早些时候以来的最高水平，当时收益率高达1.364%。</blockquote></p><p> “The 10-year Treasury bond yield has continued rising in recent days and exploded higher in [Wednesday’s] trading, sending a strong message that the Delta variant of Covid may be peaking in the U.S. which should improve confidence, restart economic reopenings, and drive investment flows toward small caps and cyclicals,” said Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at the Leuthold Group.</p><p><blockquote>“最近几天，10年期国债收益率持续上升，并在[周三]交易中大幅走高，发出了一个强烈的信息，即美国的新冠疫情德尔塔变异毒株可能正在见顶，这应该会提振信心，重启经济重新开放，并推动投资流向小盘股和周期性股票，”Leuthold Group首席投资策略师吉姆·保尔森(Jim Paulsen)表示。</blockquote></p><p> Chairman Jerome Powell is slated to make remarks on Friday as part of the Fed’s summit. The Federal Reserve has been purchasing at least $120 billion of bonds per month to curb longer-term interest rates and jumpstart economic growth in reaction to the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>作为美联储峰会的一部分，主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔定于周五发表讲话。美联储每月购买至少1200亿美元的债券，以抑制长期利率并推动经济增长，以应对疫情。</blockquote></p><p> “Expect investors to keep an eye on the Fed’s symposium the rest of this week for any comments about tapering or timing for interest rate hikes,” said Paulsen. “Either unexpected commentary from the Fed or a failure or success in scaling 4500 could bring additional volatility to the stock and bond markets.”</p><p><blockquote>保尔森表示：“预计投资者将密切关注美联储本周剩余时间的研讨会，了解有关缩减或加息时机的任何评论。”“无论是美联储的意外评论，还是突破4500点的失败或成功，都可能给股票和债券市场带来额外的波动。”</blockquote></p><p> Several companies report quarterly earnings on Thursday including&nbsp;Dell Technologies,Gap,HP&nbsp;and&nbsp;Abercrombie &amp; Fitch.</p><p><blockquote>戴尔科技、Gap、惠普和Abercrombie&amp;Fitch等多家公司周四公布了季度收益。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>S&P 500 opens flat near a record as investors await Fed summit<blockquote>投资者等待美联储峰会，标普500开盘持平，接近历史新高</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nS&P 500 opens flat near a record as investors await Fed summit<blockquote>投资者等待美联储峰会，标普500开盘持平，接近历史新高</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-26 21:32</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 was little changed Thursday morning, following the benchmark's rally above the 4,500 level for the first time ever in the prior session, as investors await the Federal Reserve's annual symposium on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>周四上午，标普500几乎没有变化，此前该基准指数在前一交易日首次升至4,500点上方，投资者等待周五的美联储年度研讨会。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose about 24 points, or 0.1%. The S&amp;P 500 lost 0.08% and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.09%.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数上涨约24点，涨幅0.1%。标普500下跌0.08%，纳斯达克综合指数下跌0.09%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aeb3e35b07de26deb37e5b218327ded1\" tg-width=\"1038\" tg-height=\"492\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Weekly initial jobless claims&nbsp;came in at 353,000, the Labor Department reported Thursday morning, a slight increase from the prior week’s 349,000. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected 350,000 Americans filed for unemployment last week.</p><p><blockquote>美国劳工部周四上午报告称，每周首次申请失业救济人数为353,000人，较前一周的349,000人略有增加。道琼斯调查的经济学家预计上周有35万美国人申请失业救济。</blockquote></p><p> Economic&nbsp;growth totaled 6.6%&nbsp;in the second quarter, according to the Commerce Department’s second estimate Thursday. That was a slight revision upward from the 6.5% annual increase&nbsp;previously reported&nbsp;but slightly lower than the Dow Jones estimate of 6.7%.</p><p><blockquote>根据商务部周四的第二次估计，第二季度经济增长总计6.6%。这比之前报告的6.5%的年增长率略有上调，但略低于道琼斯6.7%的预期。</blockquote></p><p> The highly anticipated Jackson Hole symposium from the Federal Reserve will be held virtually this year on Friday, with many central bank speakers making remarks to the media beginning Thursday. At the event, central bankers could provide updates on their plan around tapering monetary stimulus.</p><p><blockquote>备受期待的美联储杰克逊霍尔研讨会实际上将于今年周五举行，许多央行发言人将从周四开始向媒体发表讲话。在此次活动中，央行行长可以提供有关缩减货币刺激计划的最新信息。</blockquote></p><p> Esther George, president of the Kansas City Fed, told CNBC Thursday morning that “given the progress we’ve seen,” Fed&nbsp;tapering is “appropriate,”though she didn’t specify when she thinks it should start.</p><p><blockquote>堪萨斯城联储主席埃丝特·乔治(Esther George)周四上午对CNBC表示，“鉴于我们所看到的进展”，美联储缩减购债规模是“适当的”，但她没有具体说明她认为何时应该开始。</blockquote></p><p> “When you look at the job gains we saw last month, the month before, you look at the level of inflation right now, I think it would suggest that the level of accommodation we’re providing right now is probably not needed in this scenario,” she said. “So I would be ready to talk about taper sooner rather than later.”</p><p><blockquote>“当你看看我们上个月、前一个月看到的就业增长，看看现在的通胀水平，我认为这表明我们现在提供的便利水平在这种情况下可能不需要，”她说。“所以我准备好尽早谈论缩减规模。”</blockquote></p><p> Shares of&nbsp;Salesforce&nbsp;rose nearly 4% on&nbsp;fiscal second-quarter earnings&nbsp;and forward guidance that exceeded analysts' estimates.Ulta Beauty&nbsp;rose more than 1% after reporting strong results.</p><p><blockquote>由于第二财季盈利和前瞻性指引超出分析师预期，Salesforce股价上涨近4%。Ulta Beauty在公布强劲业绩后上涨超过1%。</blockquote></p><p> Zoom Video shares jumped more than 5%&nbsp;after Morgan Stanley upgraded the stockand predicted 18% upside.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利上调Zoom Video股票评级并预计上涨18%后，该股股价上涨超过5%。</blockquote></p><p> On&nbsp;Wednesday, the S&amp;P 500 gained 0.22% to close at a record, led by stocks that benefit from the economic reopening like airlines, cruise lines and financials. The 500-stock average crossed the 4,500 threshold for the first time ever on Wednesday, but closed below that level. The benchmark is up 105% from its pandemic low.</p><p><blockquote>周三，标普500上涨0.22%，收于创纪录水平，航空、邮轮和金融股等受益于经济重新开放的股票领涨。周三，500只股票平均指数首次突破4,500点大关，但收盘低于该水平。该基准较大流行低点上涨了105%。</blockquote></p><p> The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.15%, also notching a record close. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 39 points.</p><p><blockquote>纳斯达克综合指数上涨0.15%，也创下收盘纪录。道琼斯工业平均指数上涨39点。</blockquote></p><p> “While we remain believers in the secular bull market for US equities, we have suggested raising some cash in U.S. equities given lower highs (aka bearish divergences) across a variety of indicators, weaker August-October seasonality, the Presidential Cycle moving into its weakest period and bearish signals from margin debt,” wrote Stephen Suttmeier, technical research strategist at Bank of America.</p><p><blockquote>“虽然我们仍然相信美国股市的长期牛市，但鉴于各种指标的高点较低（又称看跌背离）、8月至10月季节性较弱、总统周期进入最弱时期，我们建议在美国股市筹集一些现金。美国银行技术研究策略师斯蒂芬·萨特迈尔（Stephen Suttmeier）写道：“美国股市出现最弱时期以及保证金债务的看跌信号。”</blockquote></p><p> The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose as high as 1.352% Wednesday as concerns about slowing growth from the delta variant eased, hitting its highest level since earlier in the month when it yielded as much as 1.364%.</p><p><blockquote>由于对德尔塔变异毒株增长放缓的担忧缓解，基准10年期国债收益率周三升至1.352%，触及本月早些时候以来的最高水平，当时收益率高达1.364%。</blockquote></p><p> “The 10-year Treasury bond yield has continued rising in recent days and exploded higher in [Wednesday’s] trading, sending a strong message that the Delta variant of Covid may be peaking in the U.S. which should improve confidence, restart economic reopenings, and drive investment flows toward small caps and cyclicals,” said Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at the Leuthold Group.</p><p><blockquote>“最近几天，10年期国债收益率持续上升，并在[周三]交易中大幅走高，发出了一个强烈的信息，即美国的新冠疫情德尔塔变异毒株可能正在见顶，这应该会提振信心，重启经济重新开放，并推动投资流向小盘股和周期性股票，”Leuthold Group首席投资策略师吉姆·保尔森(Jim Paulsen)表示。</blockquote></p><p> Chairman Jerome Powell is slated to make remarks on Friday as part of the Fed’s summit. The Federal Reserve has been purchasing at least $120 billion of bonds per month to curb longer-term interest rates and jumpstart economic growth in reaction to the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>作为美联储峰会的一部分，主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔定于周五发表讲话。美联储每月购买至少1200亿美元的债券，以抑制长期利率并推动经济增长，以应对疫情。</blockquote></p><p> “Expect investors to keep an eye on the Fed’s symposium the rest of this week for any comments about tapering or timing for interest rate hikes,” said Paulsen. “Either unexpected commentary from the Fed or a failure or success in scaling 4500 could bring additional volatility to the stock and bond markets.”</p><p><blockquote>保尔森表示：“预计投资者将密切关注美联储本周剩余时间的研讨会，了解有关缩减或加息时机的任何评论。”“无论是美联储的意外评论，还是突破4500点的失败或成功，都可能给股票和债券市场带来额外的波动。”</blockquote></p><p> Several companies report quarterly earnings on Thursday including&nbsp;Dell Technologies,Gap,HP&nbsp;and&nbsp;Abercrombie &amp; Fitch.</p><p><blockquote>戴尔科技、Gap、惠普和Abercrombie&amp;Fitch等多家公司周四公布了季度收益。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120391898","content_text":"The S&P 500 was little changed Thursday morning, following the benchmark's rally above the 4,500 level for the first time ever in the prior session, as investors await the Federal Reserve's annual symposium on Friday.\nThe Dow Jones Industrial Average rose about 24 points, or 0.1%. The S&P 500 lost 0.08% and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.09%.\n\nWeekly initial jobless claims came in at 353,000, the Labor Department reported Thursday morning, a slight increase from the prior week’s 349,000. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected 350,000 Americans filed for unemployment last week.\nEconomic growth totaled 6.6% in the second quarter, according to the Commerce Department’s second estimate Thursday. That was a slight revision upward from the 6.5% annual increase previously reported but slightly lower than the Dow Jones estimate of 6.7%.\nThe highly anticipated Jackson Hole symposium from the Federal Reserve will be held virtually this year on Friday, with many central bank speakers making remarks to the media beginning Thursday. At the event, central bankers could provide updates on their plan around tapering monetary stimulus.\nEsther George, president of the Kansas City Fed, told CNBC Thursday morning that “given the progress we’ve seen,” Fed tapering is “appropriate,”though she didn’t specify when she thinks it should start.\n“When you look at the job gains we saw last month, the month before, you look at the level of inflation right now, I think it would suggest that the level of accommodation we’re providing right now is probably not needed in this scenario,” she said. “So I would be ready to talk about taper sooner rather than later.”\nShares of Salesforce rose nearly 4% on fiscal second-quarter earnings and forward guidance that exceeded analysts' estimates.Ulta Beauty rose more than 1% after reporting strong results.\nZoom Video shares jumped more than 5% after Morgan Stanley upgraded the stockand predicted 18% upside.\nOn Wednesday, the S&P 500 gained 0.22% to close at a record, led by stocks that benefit from the economic reopening like airlines, cruise lines and financials. The 500-stock average crossed the 4,500 threshold for the first time ever on Wednesday, but closed below that level. The benchmark is up 105% from its pandemic low.\nThe Nasdaq Composite rose 0.15%, also notching a record close. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 39 points.\n“While we remain believers in the secular bull market for US equities, we have suggested raising some cash in U.S. equities given lower highs (aka bearish divergences) across a variety of indicators, weaker August-October seasonality, the Presidential Cycle moving into its weakest period and bearish signals from margin debt,” wrote Stephen Suttmeier, technical research strategist at Bank of America.\nThe yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose as high as 1.352% Wednesday as concerns about slowing growth from the delta variant eased, hitting its highest level since earlier in the month when it yielded as much as 1.364%.\n“The 10-year Treasury bond yield has continued rising in recent days and exploded higher in [Wednesday’s] trading, sending a strong message that the Delta variant of Covid may be peaking in the U.S. which should improve confidence, restart economic reopenings, and drive investment flows toward small caps and cyclicals,” said Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at the Leuthold Group.\nChairman Jerome Powell is slated to make remarks on Friday as part of the Fed’s summit. The Federal Reserve has been purchasing at least $120 billion of bonds per month to curb longer-term interest rates and jumpstart economic growth in reaction to the pandemic.\n“Expect investors to keep an eye on the Fed’s symposium the rest of this week for any comments about tapering or timing for interest rate hikes,” said Paulsen. “Either unexpected commentary from the Fed or a failure or success in scaling 4500 could bring additional volatility to the stock and bond markets.”\nSeveral companies report quarterly earnings on Thursday including Dell Technologies,Gap,HP and Abercrombie & Fitch.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2013,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":803074837,"gmtCreate":1627398888829,"gmtModify":1631892251496,"author":{"id":"3584416898370318","authorId":"3584416898370318","name":"Yt64","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9824cc246c21cbb20e1583ad744abef8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584416898370318","idStr":"3584416898370318"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like and comment thank you","listText":"Pls like and comment thank you","text":"Pls like and comment thank you","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/803074837","repostId":"1180394633","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":423,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":158262566,"gmtCreate":1625151672455,"gmtModify":1633944199227,"author":{"id":"3584416898370318","authorId":"3584416898370318","name":"Yt64","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9824cc246c21cbb20e1583ad744abef8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584416898370318","idStr":"3584416898370318"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls comment","listText":"Pls comment","text":"Pls comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/158262566","repostId":"2148840288","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":371,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":899635000,"gmtCreate":1628177137800,"gmtModify":1631888790650,"author":{"id":"3584416898370318","authorId":"3584416898370318","name":"Yt64","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9824cc246c21cbb20e1583ad744abef8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584416898370318","idStr":"3584416898370318"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like and comment thx","listText":"Pls like and comment thx","text":"Pls like and comment thx","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/899635000","repostId":"1117772028","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1117772028","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1628174192,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1117772028?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-05 22:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Airline shares, Carnival stocks rally in morning trading<blockquote>航空股、嘉年华股早盘上涨</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117772028","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(Aug&nbsp;5)&nbsp;Airline shares, Carnival stocks&nbsp;rally&nbsp;in&nbsp;morning&nbsp;trading.","content":"<p>(Aug&nbsp;5)&nbsp;Airline shares, Carnival stocks&nbsp;rally&nbsp;in&nbsp;morning&nbsp;trading.</p><p><blockquote>（8月5日）航空股、嘉年华股早盘上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42a38b66aa352091811cb924ece1b676\" tg-width=\"374\" tg-height=\"366\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAirline shares, Carnival stocks rally in morning trading<blockquote>航空股、嘉年华股早盘上涨</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-05 22:36</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Aug&nbsp;5)&nbsp;Airline shares, Carnival stocks&nbsp;rally&nbsp;in&nbsp;morning&nbsp;trading.</p><p><blockquote>（8月5日）航空股、嘉年华股早盘上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42a38b66aa352091811cb924ece1b676\" tg-width=\"374\" tg-height=\"366\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117772028","content_text":"(Aug 5) Airline shares, Carnival stocks rally in morning trading.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1566,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":172518045,"gmtCreate":1626965865587,"gmtModify":1631892251533,"author":{"id":"3584416898370318","authorId":"3584416898370318","name":"Yt64","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9824cc246c21cbb20e1583ad744abef8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584416898370318","idStr":"3584416898370318"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like and comment thank you","listText":"Pls like and comment thank you","text":"Pls like and comment thank you","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/172518045","repostId":"1154266565","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1154266565","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626955588,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1154266565?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-22 20:06","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How to invest as the Delta variant takes hold<blockquote>随着德尔塔变异毒株的到来如何投资</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154266565","media":"cnn","summary":"New York When the market is plunging like it did last Friday and on Monday, it's tempting to throw in the towel and sell. Big drops can be scary.But dumping stocks on days when the Dow is getting whacked is usually the wrong thing to do. Stocks roared back Tuesday and were up again Wednesday.If you're investing for the long haul, the best thing you can do is ride out this wave of volatility.\"Stay invested,\" said Seema Shah, chief strategist at Principal Global Investors. Shah told CNN Business t","content":"<p>New York (CNN Business)When the market is plunging like it did last Friday and on Monday, it's tempting to throw in the towel and sell. Big drops can be scary.</p><p><blockquote>纽约（CNN商业）当市场像上周五和周一那样暴跌时，人们很容易认输并卖出。大跌可能会很可怕。</blockquote></p><p> But dumping stocks on days when the Dow is getting whacked is usually the wrong thing to do. Stocks roared back Tuesday and were up again Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>但在道琼斯指数遭受重创的日子抛售股票通常是错误的做法。周二股市大幅反弹，周三再次上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Yes, the Delta variant of Covid-19 has led to an alarming uptick in coronavirus cases in the United States and around the globe. But many experts think the massive number of vaccinations that have already taken place will prevent the economy and markets from going into another tailspin.</p><p><blockquote>是的，新冠肺炎的德尔塔变异毒株导致美国和全球冠状病毒病例惊人地上升。但许多专家认为，已经进行的大量疫苗接种将防止经济和市场陷入另一场混乱。</blockquote></p><p> If you're investing for the long haul, the best thing you can do is ride out this wave of volatility.</p><p><blockquote>如果你是长期投资，你能做的最好的事情就是安然度过这波波动。</blockquote></p><p> \"Stay invested,\" said Seema Shah, chief strategist at Principal Global Investors. Shah told CNN Business that the Delta variant is highly unlikely to stop the economic recovery in the US and other parts of the developed world where vaccination rates are high.</p><p><blockquote>信安全球投资者首席策略师Seema Shah表示：“保持投资。”沙阿告诉美国有线电视新闻网商业频道，德尔塔变异毒株不太可能阻止美国和其他疫苗接种率较高的发达国家的经济复苏。</blockquote></p><p> \"The vaccine is effective,\" she said. \"If cases are rising but hospitalization rates remain low, then the reopening measures from governments will continue.\"</p><p><blockquote>“疫苗是有效的，”她说。“如果病例在上升，但住院率仍然很低，那么政府的重新开放措施将继续下去。”</blockquote></p><p> Still, Shah conceded, investors should be more selective. After all, the S&amp;P 500 has nearly doubled from its pandemic lows in March 2020, and not all stocks and sectors will maintain their momentum.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，沙阿承认，投资者应该更加挑剔。毕竟，标普500较2020年3月的大流行低点上涨了近一倍，并非所有股票和板块都将保持其势头。</blockquote></p><p> She thinks defensive sectors might start to pull back a bit. Those include utilities, health care and others companies that pay big dividends and are considered good bond proxies.</p><p><blockquote>她认为防御性板块可能会开始小幅回调。其中包括公用事业、医疗保健和其他支付高额股息并被认为是良好债券代理的公司。</blockquote></p><p> The FAANGs and other big tech stocks, many of which have strong earnings momentum and tons of cash, should continue to rally, she said.</p><p><blockquote>她表示，FAANG和其他大型科技股应该会继续上涨，其中许多股拥有强劲的盈利势头和大量现金。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Not the time to bail on the market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现在不是退出市场的时候</b></blockquote></p><p> So should economic recovery plays in the travel and retail sectors that have pulled back lately on Covid concerns. United (UAL), for example, issued an upbeat outlook after the closing bell Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>旅游和零售行业的经济复苏也应该如此，这些行业最近因新冠疫情担忧而回落。例如，美联航(UAL)在周二收盘后发布了乐观的前景。</blockquote></p><p> \"Airlines have been beaten up,\" Shah said. \"But if you assume the reopening will continue, they should enjoy a significant bounceback.\"</p><p><blockquote>“航空公司受到了打击，”沙阿说。“但如果你假设重新开放将继续，他们应该会享受显着的反弹。”</blockquote></p><p> Stocks may remain bumpy for the foreseeable future, but that shouldn't dissuade investors from sticking with their longer-term investments.</p><p><blockquote>在可预见的未来，股市可能仍然坎坷，但这不应阻止投资者坚持长期投资。</blockquote></p><p> \"The uncertainty of the past couple of days is warranted for the short term,\" said Peter van der Welle, multi-asset strategist at Robeco. \"But there should be a second leg to the reflation trade.\"</p><p><blockquote>荷宝多资产策略师Peter van der Welle表示：“过去几天的不确定性在短期内是合理的。”“但通货再膨胀交易应该有第二条腿。”</blockquote></p><p> Van der Welle noted that there are many reasons to be optimistic about continued gains in consumer spending and retail sales, despite a recent drop in consumer confidence.</p><p><blockquote>范德韦勒指出，尽管近期消费者信心有所下降，但仍有许多理由对消费者支出和零售额的持续增长持乐观态度。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Buy the dips</b></p><p><blockquote><b>逢低买入</b></blockquote></p><p> Any wariness on the part of consumers — and investors, for that matter — could turn out to be fleeting.</p><p><blockquote>消费者——以及投资者——的任何谨慎都可能转瞬即逝。</blockquote></p><p> \"If you are a long-term investor, take advantage of this volatility and add to positions in companies and sectors you really like,\" said Phil Orlando, chief equity market strategist at Federated Hermes.</p><p><blockquote>Federated Hermes首席股票市场策略师菲尔·奥兰多(Phil Orlando)表示：“如果你是长期投资者，请利用这种波动性，增持你真正喜欢的公司和行业。”</blockquote></p><p> He he belives stocks in cyclical industries that have gotten hit because of Delta variant fears could enjoy the biggest rebounds.</p><p><blockquote>他认为，因德尔塔变异毒株担忧而受到打击的周期性行业股票可能会出现最大的反弹。</blockquote></p><p> \"There are stocks that have hit an air pocket that could be very attractive. We love the economically sensitive sectors,\" Orlando added, saying that banks and other financials, industrial firms, retailers and energy stocks may come roaring back.</p><p><blockquote>奥兰多补充道：“有些股票已经陷入困境，可能非常有吸引力。我们喜欢对经济敏感的行业。”他表示，银行和其他金融股、工业公司、零售商和能源股可能会大幅反弹。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How to invest as the Delta variant takes hold<blockquote>随着德尔塔变异毒株的到来如何投资</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow to invest as the Delta variant takes hold<blockquote>随着德尔塔变异毒株的到来如何投资</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">cnn</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-22 20:06</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>New York (CNN Business)When the market is plunging like it did last Friday and on Monday, it's tempting to throw in the towel and sell. Big drops can be scary.</p><p><blockquote>纽约（CNN商业）当市场像上周五和周一那样暴跌时，人们很容易认输并卖出。大跌可能会很可怕。</blockquote></p><p> But dumping stocks on days when the Dow is getting whacked is usually the wrong thing to do. Stocks roared back Tuesday and were up again Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>但在道琼斯指数遭受重创的日子抛售股票通常是错误的做法。周二股市大幅反弹，周三再次上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Yes, the Delta variant of Covid-19 has led to an alarming uptick in coronavirus cases in the United States and around the globe. But many experts think the massive number of vaccinations that have already taken place will prevent the economy and markets from going into another tailspin.</p><p><blockquote>是的，新冠肺炎的德尔塔变异毒株导致美国和全球冠状病毒病例惊人地上升。但许多专家认为，已经进行的大量疫苗接种将防止经济和市场陷入另一场混乱。</blockquote></p><p> If you're investing for the long haul, the best thing you can do is ride out this wave of volatility.</p><p><blockquote>如果你是长期投资，你能做的最好的事情就是安然度过这波波动。</blockquote></p><p> \"Stay invested,\" said Seema Shah, chief strategist at Principal Global Investors. Shah told CNN Business that the Delta variant is highly unlikely to stop the economic recovery in the US and other parts of the developed world where vaccination rates are high.</p><p><blockquote>信安全球投资者首席策略师Seema Shah表示：“保持投资。”沙阿告诉美国有线电视新闻网商业频道，德尔塔变异毒株不太可能阻止美国和其他疫苗接种率较高的发达国家的经济复苏。</blockquote></p><p> \"The vaccine is effective,\" she said. \"If cases are rising but hospitalization rates remain low, then the reopening measures from governments will continue.\"</p><p><blockquote>“疫苗是有效的，”她说。“如果病例在上升，但住院率仍然很低，那么政府的重新开放措施将继续下去。”</blockquote></p><p> Still, Shah conceded, investors should be more selective. After all, the S&amp;P 500 has nearly doubled from its pandemic lows in March 2020, and not all stocks and sectors will maintain their momentum.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，沙阿承认，投资者应该更加挑剔。毕竟，标普500较2020年3月的大流行低点上涨了近一倍，并非所有股票和板块都将保持其势头。</blockquote></p><p> She thinks defensive sectors might start to pull back a bit. Those include utilities, health care and others companies that pay big dividends and are considered good bond proxies.</p><p><blockquote>她认为防御性板块可能会开始小幅回调。其中包括公用事业、医疗保健和其他支付高额股息并被认为是良好债券代理的公司。</blockquote></p><p> The FAANGs and other big tech stocks, many of which have strong earnings momentum and tons of cash, should continue to rally, she said.</p><p><blockquote>她表示，FAANG和其他大型科技股应该会继续上涨，其中许多股拥有强劲的盈利势头和大量现金。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Not the time to bail on the market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现在不是退出市场的时候</b></blockquote></p><p> So should economic recovery plays in the travel and retail sectors that have pulled back lately on Covid concerns. United (UAL), for example, issued an upbeat outlook after the closing bell Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>旅游和零售行业的经济复苏也应该如此，这些行业最近因新冠疫情担忧而回落。例如，美联航(UAL)在周二收盘后发布了乐观的前景。</blockquote></p><p> \"Airlines have been beaten up,\" Shah said. \"But if you assume the reopening will continue, they should enjoy a significant bounceback.\"</p><p><blockquote>“航空公司受到了打击，”沙阿说。“但如果你假设重新开放将继续，他们应该会享受显着的反弹。”</blockquote></p><p> Stocks may remain bumpy for the foreseeable future, but that shouldn't dissuade investors from sticking with their longer-term investments.</p><p><blockquote>在可预见的未来，股市可能仍然坎坷，但这不应阻止投资者坚持长期投资。</blockquote></p><p> \"The uncertainty of the past couple of days is warranted for the short term,\" said Peter van der Welle, multi-asset strategist at Robeco. \"But there should be a second leg to the reflation trade.\"</p><p><blockquote>荷宝多资产策略师Peter van der Welle表示：“过去几天的不确定性在短期内是合理的。”“但通货再膨胀交易应该有第二条腿。”</blockquote></p><p> Van der Welle noted that there are many reasons to be optimistic about continued gains in consumer spending and retail sales, despite a recent drop in consumer confidence.</p><p><blockquote>范德韦勒指出，尽管近期消费者信心有所下降，但仍有许多理由对消费者支出和零售额的持续增长持乐观态度。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Buy the dips</b></p><p><blockquote><b>逢低买入</b></blockquote></p><p> Any wariness on the part of consumers — and investors, for that matter — could turn out to be fleeting.</p><p><blockquote>消费者——以及投资者——的任何谨慎都可能转瞬即逝。</blockquote></p><p> \"If you are a long-term investor, take advantage of this volatility and add to positions in companies and sectors you really like,\" said Phil Orlando, chief equity market strategist at Federated Hermes.</p><p><blockquote>Federated Hermes首席股票市场策略师菲尔·奥兰多(Phil Orlando)表示：“如果你是长期投资者，请利用这种波动性，增持你真正喜欢的公司和行业。”</blockquote></p><p> He he belives stocks in cyclical industries that have gotten hit because of Delta variant fears could enjoy the biggest rebounds.</p><p><blockquote>他认为，因德尔塔变异毒株担忧而受到打击的周期性行业股票可能会出现最大的反弹。</blockquote></p><p> \"There are stocks that have hit an air pocket that could be very attractive. We love the economically sensitive sectors,\" Orlando added, saying that banks and other financials, industrial firms, retailers and energy stocks may come roaring back.</p><p><blockquote>奥兰多补充道：“有些股票已经陷入困境，可能非常有吸引力。我们喜欢对经济敏感的行业。”他表示，银行和其他金融股、工业公司、零售商和能源股可能会大幅反弹。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/07/21/investing/investing-stock-market-volatility/index.html\">cnn</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/07/21/investing/investing-stock-market-volatility/index.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154266565","content_text":"New York (CNN Business)When the market is plunging like it did last Friday and on Monday, it's tempting to throw in the towel and sell. Big drops can be scary.\nBut dumping stocks on days when the Dow is getting whacked is usually the wrong thing to do. Stocks roared back Tuesday and were up again Wednesday.\nYes, the Delta variant of Covid-19 has led to an alarming uptick in coronavirus cases in the United States and around the globe. But many experts think the massive number of vaccinations that have already taken place will prevent the economy and markets from going into another tailspin.\nIf you're investing for the long haul, the best thing you can do is ride out this wave of volatility.\n\"Stay invested,\" said Seema Shah, chief strategist at Principal Global Investors. Shah told CNN Business that the Delta variant is highly unlikely to stop the economic recovery in the US and other parts of the developed world where vaccination rates are high.\n\"The vaccine is effective,\" she said. \"If cases are rising but hospitalization rates remain low, then the reopening measures from governments will continue.\"\nStill, Shah conceded, investors should be more selective. After all, the S&P 500 has nearly doubled from its pandemic lows in March 2020, and not all stocks and sectors will maintain their momentum.\nShe thinks defensive sectors might start to pull back a bit. Those include utilities, health care and others companies that pay big dividends and are considered good bond proxies.\nThe FAANGs and other big tech stocks, many of which have strong earnings momentum and tons of cash, should continue to rally, she said.\nNot the time to bail on the market\nSo should economic recovery plays in the travel and retail sectors that have pulled back lately on Covid concerns. United (UAL), for example, issued an upbeat outlook after the closing bell Tuesday.\n\"Airlines have been beaten up,\" Shah said. \"But if you assume the reopening will continue, they should enjoy a significant bounceback.\"\nStocks may remain bumpy for the foreseeable future, but that shouldn't dissuade investors from sticking with their longer-term investments.\n\"The uncertainty of the past couple of days is warranted for the short term,\" said Peter van der Welle, multi-asset strategist at Robeco. \"But there should be a second leg to the reflation trade.\"\nVan der Welle noted that there are many reasons to be optimistic about continued gains in consumer spending and retail sales, despite a recent drop in consumer confidence.\nBuy the dips\nAny wariness on the part of consumers — and investors, for that matter — could turn out to be fleeting.\n\"If you are a long-term investor, take advantage of this volatility and add to positions in companies and sectors you really like,\" said Phil Orlando, chief equity market strategist at Federated Hermes.\nHe he belives stocks in cyclical industries that have gotten hit because of Delta variant fears could enjoy the biggest rebounds.\n\"There are stocks that have hit an air pocket that could be very attractive. We love the economically sensitive sectors,\" Orlando added, saying that banks and other financials, industrial firms, retailers and energy stocks may come roaring back.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":984,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":173371103,"gmtCreate":1626623310702,"gmtModify":1631892251572,"author":{"id":"3584416898370318","authorId":"3584416898370318","name":"Yt64","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9824cc246c21cbb20e1583ad744abef8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584416898370318","idStr":"3584416898370318"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like and comment","listText":"Pls like and comment","text":"Pls like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/173371103","repostId":"1183956332","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":791,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":122791579,"gmtCreate":1624632306891,"gmtModify":1633950269342,"author":{"id":"3584416898370318","authorId":"3584416898370318","name":"Yt64","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9824cc246c21cbb20e1583ad744abef8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584416898370318","idStr":"3584416898370318"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Cool","listText":"Cool","text":"Cool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/122791579","repostId":"2146023165","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":526,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126164371,"gmtCreate":1624548043093,"gmtModify":1634004508323,"author":{"id":"3584416898370318","authorId":"3584416898370318","name":"Yt64","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9824cc246c21cbb20e1583ad744abef8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584416898370318","idStr":"3584416898370318"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hello","listText":"Hello","text":"Hello","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/126164371","repostId":"1187819280","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1187819280","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624529642,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1187819280?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-24 18:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The ‘shelter in suburbia’ trade is about to reverse — and these stocks will suffer<blockquote>“郊区避难所”交易即将逆转——这些股票将受到影响</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187819280","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"5 reasons the pandemic megatrend is over.\n\nOne of the biggest investment stories of the COVID-19 pan","content":"<p>  <b>5 reasons the pandemic megatrend is over.</b>  One of the biggest investment stories of the COVID-19 pandemic has been the boom in consumer discretionary stocks with a “shelter in suburbia” theme. From e-commerce platforms to home improvement stores to furniture and housewares merchants, many of the top performers have fit this flavor.</p><p><blockquote><b>大流行大趋势结束的5个原因。</b>COVID-19大流行最大的投资故事之一是以“郊区避难所”为主题的非必需消费品股票的繁荣。从电商平台到家装店，再到家具和家居用品商家，许多表现最好的企业都符合这种口味。</blockquote></p><p> Take the broad-based Vanguard Consumer Discretionary Index Fund ETF VCR, +0.66% that surged more than 90% from March 2020 to March 2021. That was thanks to components like home improvement stocks Lowe’s LOW, -0.30% and Home Depot HD, -0.33% alongside retailers like TJX TJX, -0.08%.</p><p><blockquote>以基础广泛的Vanguard非必需消费品指数基金ETF VCR为例，+0.66%，从2020年3月到2021年3月飙升了90%以上。这要归功于家装股Lowe's LOW(-0.30%)和Home Depot HD(-0.33%)以及TJX TJX(-0.08%)等零售商。</blockquote></p><p> Lately, however, performance has started to lag for many of these names. In fact, since April 1 we’ve seen these three stocks all drift slightly into the red even as the S&amp;P 500 SPX, -0.11% has tacked on about 6% in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>然而，最近，其中许多名称的性能开始滞后。事实上，自4月1日以来，我们看到这三只股票都小幅下跌，尽管标普500 SPX指数-0.11%同期上涨了约6%。</blockquote></p><p> And some fear that may only be the beginning. As one Wall Street insider said recently in a Bloomberg interview, a “huge unwind” is coming for stay-at-home stocks, including hardware stores and home-goods merchants.</p><p><blockquote>有些人担心这可能只是开始。正如一位华尔街内部人士最近在接受彭博社采访时所说，包括五金店和家居用品商家在内的居家股票即将“大幅放松”。</blockquote></p><p> While some big-name “suburbia” trades are still relatively stable, signs of trouble are already emerging at the fringes. Century Communities CCS, -0.34% and Dream Finders Homes DFH, -2.55%, two mid-tier single family homebuilders, have seen shares crash by double digits over the last month. On the furnishings side, appliance giant Whirlpool Corporation WHR, -0.51% and department store Nordstrom JWN, +2.03% are down sharply from their spring highs.</p><p><blockquote>虽然一些知名的“郊区”交易仍然相对稳定，但麻烦的迹象已经在边缘出现。Century Communities CCS(-0.34%)和Dream Finders Homes DFH(-2.55%)这两家中型单户住宅建筑商的股价在上个月暴跌了两位数。家具方面，家电巨头惠而浦公司WHR(-0.51%)和百货公司Nordstrom JWN(+2.03%)均较春季高点大幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Here are five big reasons why:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>以下是五大原因：</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>1.</b>&nbsp;<b>The upgrade cycle is over</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.</b> <b>升级周期结束</b></blockquote></p><p> Last summer, white-collar workers who were stuck at home made note of overdue projects and took advantage of being able to easily meet with contractors. But in many ways, this growth is not sustainable.</p><p><blockquote>去年夏天，被困在家里的白领们记下了逾期的项目，并利用了能够轻松与承包商见面的机会。但在许多方面，这种增长是不可持续的。</blockquote></p><p> Consider the kind of purchases homeowners were making according to data from the NPD Group. Faucets, kitchen cabinets and even toilets were among the most popular products sold in 2020. Needless to say, even the most profligate homeowners aren’t going to follow this upgrade cycle of remodeling kitchens and bathrooms on an annual basis.</p><p><blockquote>根据NPD集团的数据，考虑一下房主的购买类型。水龙头、厨柜甚至马桶都是2020年销售的最受欢迎的产品。不用说，即使是最挥霍的房主也不会遵循每年改造厨房和浴室的升级周期。</blockquote></p><p> The same is true for furniture and other home goods. Internet giant Comscore recorded the highest visitation to related websites in history in May 2020 with 133 million web surfers shopping for some kind of home goods. Once again, a new couch or lamp is not an annual purchase — so this trend seems unsustainable for much longer.</p><p><blockquote>家具和其他家居用品也是如此。互联网巨头Comscore在2020年5月记录了历史上相关网站的最高访问量，1.33亿网络冲浪者购买了某种家居用品。再说一次，新沙发或台灯不是每年都会购买的——所以这种趋势似乎无法持续很长时间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2.&nbsp;Valuations are stretched</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.估值捉襟见肘</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of post-pandemic peaks for home-goods purveyors, we’ve seen the financials bear out these big increases via boosted profits and sales. However, we’ve also seen the stock of many related merchants surge even more — stretching their valuations from historical norms.</p><p><blockquote>谈到家居用品供应商的大流行后高峰，我们已经看到财务状况通过利润和销售额的增加证实了这些大幅增长。然而，我们也看到许多相关商家的股价飙升得更多——超出了历史标准的估值。</blockquote></p><p> Take TJX. Currently this discount retailer has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of more than 26, compared with a forward P/E of just 21 in spring 2020. Its trailing price-to-sales ratio is now 2.1 compared with 1.4.</p><p><blockquote>以TJX为例。目前，这家折扣零售商的远期市盈率超过26，而2020年春季的远期市盈率仅为21。其往绩市销率目前为2.1，而此前为1.4。</blockquote></p><p> What’s more, valuations for previous darlings like TJX are out of line with peers, too. Consider the forward P/E of the overall S&amp;P 500 index is 22 right now, and other similar names like Macy’s M, +0.70% and Big Lots BIG, -3.71% actually have forward P/E ratios well under 10. You can argue TJX is unique, of course… but you also may want to be aware of what “fair value” looks like for many other stocks outside fashionable stay-at-home trades right now.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，TJX等之前宠儿的估值也与同行不符。考虑到目前整个标普500指数的远期市盈率为22，而其他类似的公司，如梅西百货M，+0.70%和Big Lot Big，-3.71%，实际上其远期市盈率远低于10。当然，你可以说TJX是独一无二的……但你可能也想知道目前流行的居家交易之外的许多其他股票的“公允价值”是什么样的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3.&nbsp;Delays and shortages</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.延误和短缺</b></blockquote></p><p> Future growth from pandemic-fueled peaks in these stocks is not impossible, of course. But given supply chain disruptions it seems highly unlikely. There are a host of reasons for these delays, including overseas shipping delays as well as capacity and output crunches that are affecting many industries, but “stay at home” stocks seem particularly hard hit.</p><p><blockquote>当然，这些股票在大流行推动下达到峰值的未来增长并非不可能。但考虑到供应链中断，这似乎不太可能。造成这些延误的原因有很多，包括海外运输延误以及影响许多行业的产能和产量紧缩，但“呆在家里”的股票似乎受到的打击尤其严重。</blockquote></p><p> Home improvement products are simply nowhere to be found, with roughly 94% of builders reporting “at least some serious shortages of appliances” according to the National Association of Home Builders. Another 93% are running short on framing lumber and 87% say it is hard to obtain windows and doors.</p><p><blockquote>根据全国住宅建筑商协会的数据，家装产品根本无处可寻，大约94%的建筑商报告“至少有一些严重的电器短缺”。另有93%的人缺乏框架木材，87%的人表示很难获得门窗。</blockquote></p><p> Even if you can get past demand concerns, without the raw materials to get to work it’s very hard to see future growth in this category.</p><p><blockquote>即使你可以克服需求问题，如果没有原材料来发挥作用，也很难看到这一类别的未来增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4.&nbsp;Inflationary pressures</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4.通货膨胀压力</b></blockquote></p><p> For the people who haven’t already ponied up the cash for a contractor or made their peace with extended delays for their expensive new furniture, there is a pretty big disincentive right now for new shoppers: inflation.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些还没有为承包商支付现金或忍受昂贵的新家具长时间延误的人来说，现在对新购物者来说有一个相当大的抑制因素：通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The cost of living as measured by the Consumer Price Index jumped 0.6% in May to run at a 5% annual rate. That was not only higher than expectations, but the fastest pace since the summer of 2008. The inflation risks were so pronounced that the Federal Reserve publicly stated it could move up the schedule for expected interest rate increases to keep the risks under wraps.</p><p><blockquote>5月份消费者价格指数衡量的生活成本上涨0.6%，年增长率为5%。这不仅高于预期，而且是自2008年夏季以来最快的速度。通胀风险如此明显，以至于美联储公开表示可能会提前预期加息的时间表，以掩盖风险。</blockquote></p><p> Inflation isn’t always a death knell, of course. But it has historically eroded purchasing power and could curtail some of the spending in “stay at home” stocks that we’ve seen in the last year or so.</p><p><blockquote>当然，通货膨胀并不总是丧钟。但从历史上看，它削弱了购买力，并可能减少我们在去年左右看到的“呆在家里”股票的一些支出。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5.&nbsp;Home-equity hubris</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5.房屋净值傲慢</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of red-hot inflation: In May, the median price for U.S. homes topped $350,000 for the first time ever — up 23.6% from 2020. What’s more, a Realtor.com survey showed roughly a third of selling homeowners expect to get more than their asking price, and roughly the same amount expect an offer within a week of listing.</p><p><blockquote>说到炙手可热的通货膨胀：5月份，美国房屋中值价格首次突破35万美元，比2020年上涨23.6%。此外，Realtor.com的一项调查显示，大约三分之一的待售房主希望得到高于要价的价格，大约相同数量的房主希望在上市一周内收到报价。</blockquote></p><p> Some of this is justifiable. Many articles have been written in recent years about the dearth of supply in attractive markets, and it’s important to acknowledge the remote work of the pandemic has indeed created some disruptive introspection into why people live where they do.</p><p><blockquote>其中一些是合理的。近年来，有许多文章都是关于有吸引力的市场供应短缺的，重要的是要承认疫情的远程工作确实对人们为什么住在他们居住的地方产生了一些破坏性的反思。</blockquote></p><p> But here’s where things get dicey: homeowners who have already spent the expected premium on their home’s price well in advance. According to Freddie Mac, about $152.7 billion in equity loans were taken out on U.S. houses last year, a massive increase of 41.7% from 2019 and the highest refinancing cash-out dollar amount since 2007.</p><p><blockquote>但事情变得危险的地方是：房主已经提前在房价上花费了预期的溢价。根据房地美的数据，去年美国房屋的股权贷款约为1527亿美元，比2019年大幅增长41.7%，是自2007年以来最高的再融资套现金额。</blockquote></p><p> Anyone remember what happened to the real-estate market in 2007? Or the similar sense of seller entitlement from those days? There’s no clear signs of a bubble bursting just yet, but there’s real risk American homeowners may be overly optimistic about what their homes are worth — and a chance this home equity loan free-for-all simply isn’t sustainable for much longer.</p><p><blockquote>有人记得2007年房地产市场发生了什么吗？还是当年类似的卖家权利感？目前还没有明显的泡沫破裂迹象，但美国房主可能对自己房屋的价值过于乐观，而且这种免费的房屋净值贷款可能不会持续太久。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The ‘shelter in suburbia’ trade is about to reverse — and these stocks will suffer<blockquote>“郊区避难所”交易即将逆转——这些股票将受到影响</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe ‘shelter in suburbia’ trade is about to reverse — and these stocks will suffer<blockquote>“郊区避难所”交易即将逆转——这些股票将受到影响</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-24 18:14</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>5 reasons the pandemic megatrend is over.</b>  One of the biggest investment stories of the COVID-19 pandemic has been the boom in consumer discretionary stocks with a “shelter in suburbia” theme. From e-commerce platforms to home improvement stores to furniture and housewares merchants, many of the top performers have fit this flavor.</p><p><blockquote><b>大流行大趋势结束的5个原因。</b>COVID-19大流行最大的投资故事之一是以“郊区避难所”为主题的非必需消费品股票的繁荣。从电商平台到家装店，再到家具和家居用品商家，许多表现最好的企业都符合这种口味。</blockquote></p><p> Take the broad-based Vanguard Consumer Discretionary Index Fund ETF VCR, +0.66% that surged more than 90% from March 2020 to March 2021. That was thanks to components like home improvement stocks Lowe’s LOW, -0.30% and Home Depot HD, -0.33% alongside retailers like TJX TJX, -0.08%.</p><p><blockquote>以基础广泛的Vanguard非必需消费品指数基金ETF VCR为例，+0.66%，从2020年3月到2021年3月飙升了90%以上。这要归功于家装股Lowe's LOW(-0.30%)和Home Depot HD(-0.33%)以及TJX TJX(-0.08%)等零售商。</blockquote></p><p> Lately, however, performance has started to lag for many of these names. In fact, since April 1 we’ve seen these three stocks all drift slightly into the red even as the S&amp;P 500 SPX, -0.11% has tacked on about 6% in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>然而，最近，其中许多名称的性能开始滞后。事实上，自4月1日以来，我们看到这三只股票都小幅下跌，尽管标普500 SPX指数-0.11%同期上涨了约6%。</blockquote></p><p> And some fear that may only be the beginning. As one Wall Street insider said recently in a Bloomberg interview, a “huge unwind” is coming for stay-at-home stocks, including hardware stores and home-goods merchants.</p><p><blockquote>有些人担心这可能只是开始。正如一位华尔街内部人士最近在接受彭博社采访时所说，包括五金店和家居用品商家在内的居家股票即将“大幅放松”。</blockquote></p><p> While some big-name “suburbia” trades are still relatively stable, signs of trouble are already emerging at the fringes. Century Communities CCS, -0.34% and Dream Finders Homes DFH, -2.55%, two mid-tier single family homebuilders, have seen shares crash by double digits over the last month. On the furnishings side, appliance giant Whirlpool Corporation WHR, -0.51% and department store Nordstrom JWN, +2.03% are down sharply from their spring highs.</p><p><blockquote>虽然一些知名的“郊区”交易仍然相对稳定，但麻烦的迹象已经在边缘出现。Century Communities CCS(-0.34%)和Dream Finders Homes DFH(-2.55%)这两家中型单户住宅建筑商的股价在上个月暴跌了两位数。家具方面，家电巨头惠而浦公司WHR(-0.51%)和百货公司Nordstrom JWN(+2.03%)均较春季高点大幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Here are five big reasons why:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>以下是五大原因：</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>1.</b>&nbsp;<b>The upgrade cycle is over</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.</b> <b>升级周期结束</b></blockquote></p><p> Last summer, white-collar workers who were stuck at home made note of overdue projects and took advantage of being able to easily meet with contractors. But in many ways, this growth is not sustainable.</p><p><blockquote>去年夏天，被困在家里的白领们记下了逾期的项目，并利用了能够轻松与承包商见面的机会。但在许多方面，这种增长是不可持续的。</blockquote></p><p> Consider the kind of purchases homeowners were making according to data from the NPD Group. Faucets, kitchen cabinets and even toilets were among the most popular products sold in 2020. Needless to say, even the most profligate homeowners aren’t going to follow this upgrade cycle of remodeling kitchens and bathrooms on an annual basis.</p><p><blockquote>根据NPD集团的数据，考虑一下房主的购买类型。水龙头、厨柜甚至马桶都是2020年销售的最受欢迎的产品。不用说，即使是最挥霍的房主也不会遵循每年改造厨房和浴室的升级周期。</blockquote></p><p> The same is true for furniture and other home goods. Internet giant Comscore recorded the highest visitation to related websites in history in May 2020 with 133 million web surfers shopping for some kind of home goods. Once again, a new couch or lamp is not an annual purchase — so this trend seems unsustainable for much longer.</p><p><blockquote>家具和其他家居用品也是如此。互联网巨头Comscore在2020年5月记录了历史上相关网站的最高访问量，1.33亿网络冲浪者购买了某种家居用品。再说一次，新沙发或台灯不是每年都会购买的——所以这种趋势似乎无法持续很长时间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2.&nbsp;Valuations are stretched</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.估值捉襟见肘</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of post-pandemic peaks for home-goods purveyors, we’ve seen the financials bear out these big increases via boosted profits and sales. However, we’ve also seen the stock of many related merchants surge even more — stretching their valuations from historical norms.</p><p><blockquote>谈到家居用品供应商的大流行后高峰，我们已经看到财务状况通过利润和销售额的增加证实了这些大幅增长。然而，我们也看到许多相关商家的股价飙升得更多——超出了历史标准的估值。</blockquote></p><p> Take TJX. Currently this discount retailer has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of more than 26, compared with a forward P/E of just 21 in spring 2020. Its trailing price-to-sales ratio is now 2.1 compared with 1.4.</p><p><blockquote>以TJX为例。目前，这家折扣零售商的远期市盈率超过26，而2020年春季的远期市盈率仅为21。其往绩市销率目前为2.1，而此前为1.4。</blockquote></p><p> What’s more, valuations for previous darlings like TJX are out of line with peers, too. Consider the forward P/E of the overall S&amp;P 500 index is 22 right now, and other similar names like Macy’s M, +0.70% and Big Lots BIG, -3.71% actually have forward P/E ratios well under 10. You can argue TJX is unique, of course… but you also may want to be aware of what “fair value” looks like for many other stocks outside fashionable stay-at-home trades right now.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，TJX等之前宠儿的估值也与同行不符。考虑到目前整个标普500指数的远期市盈率为22，而其他类似的公司，如梅西百货M，+0.70%和Big Lot Big，-3.71%，实际上其远期市盈率远低于10。当然，你可以说TJX是独一无二的……但你可能也想知道目前流行的居家交易之外的许多其他股票的“公允价值”是什么样的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3.&nbsp;Delays and shortages</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.延误和短缺</b></blockquote></p><p> Future growth from pandemic-fueled peaks in these stocks is not impossible, of course. But given supply chain disruptions it seems highly unlikely. There are a host of reasons for these delays, including overseas shipping delays as well as capacity and output crunches that are affecting many industries, but “stay at home” stocks seem particularly hard hit.</p><p><blockquote>当然，这些股票在大流行推动下达到峰值的未来增长并非不可能。但考虑到供应链中断，这似乎不太可能。造成这些延误的原因有很多，包括海外运输延误以及影响许多行业的产能和产量紧缩，但“呆在家里”的股票似乎受到的打击尤其严重。</blockquote></p><p> Home improvement products are simply nowhere to be found, with roughly 94% of builders reporting “at least some serious shortages of appliances” according to the National Association of Home Builders. Another 93% are running short on framing lumber and 87% say it is hard to obtain windows and doors.</p><p><blockquote>根据全国住宅建筑商协会的数据，家装产品根本无处可寻，大约94%的建筑商报告“至少有一些严重的电器短缺”。另有93%的人缺乏框架木材，87%的人表示很难获得门窗。</blockquote></p><p> Even if you can get past demand concerns, without the raw materials to get to work it’s very hard to see future growth in this category.</p><p><blockquote>即使你可以克服需求问题，如果没有原材料来发挥作用，也很难看到这一类别的未来增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4.&nbsp;Inflationary pressures</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4.通货膨胀压力</b></blockquote></p><p> For the people who haven’t already ponied up the cash for a contractor or made their peace with extended delays for their expensive new furniture, there is a pretty big disincentive right now for new shoppers: inflation.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些还没有为承包商支付现金或忍受昂贵的新家具长时间延误的人来说，现在对新购物者来说有一个相当大的抑制因素：通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The cost of living as measured by the Consumer Price Index jumped 0.6% in May to run at a 5% annual rate. That was not only higher than expectations, but the fastest pace since the summer of 2008. The inflation risks were so pronounced that the Federal Reserve publicly stated it could move up the schedule for expected interest rate increases to keep the risks under wraps.</p><p><blockquote>5月份消费者价格指数衡量的生活成本上涨0.6%，年增长率为5%。这不仅高于预期，而且是自2008年夏季以来最快的速度。通胀风险如此明显，以至于美联储公开表示可能会提前预期加息的时间表，以掩盖风险。</blockquote></p><p> Inflation isn’t always a death knell, of course. But it has historically eroded purchasing power and could curtail some of the spending in “stay at home” stocks that we’ve seen in the last year or so.</p><p><blockquote>当然，通货膨胀并不总是丧钟。但从历史上看，它削弱了购买力，并可能减少我们在去年左右看到的“呆在家里”股票的一些支出。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5.&nbsp;Home-equity hubris</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5.房屋净值傲慢</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of red-hot inflation: In May, the median price for U.S. homes topped $350,000 for the first time ever — up 23.6% from 2020. What’s more, a Realtor.com survey showed roughly a third of selling homeowners expect to get more than their asking price, and roughly the same amount expect an offer within a week of listing.</p><p><blockquote>说到炙手可热的通货膨胀：5月份，美国房屋中值价格首次突破35万美元，比2020年上涨23.6%。此外，Realtor.com的一项调查显示，大约三分之一的待售房主希望得到高于要价的价格，大约相同数量的房主希望在上市一周内收到报价。</blockquote></p><p> Some of this is justifiable. Many articles have been written in recent years about the dearth of supply in attractive markets, and it’s important to acknowledge the remote work of the pandemic has indeed created some disruptive introspection into why people live where they do.</p><p><blockquote>其中一些是合理的。近年来，有许多文章都是关于有吸引力的市场供应短缺的，重要的是要承认疫情的远程工作确实对人们为什么住在他们居住的地方产生了一些破坏性的反思。</blockquote></p><p> But here’s where things get dicey: homeowners who have already spent the expected premium on their home’s price well in advance. According to Freddie Mac, about $152.7 billion in equity loans were taken out on U.S. houses last year, a massive increase of 41.7% from 2019 and the highest refinancing cash-out dollar amount since 2007.</p><p><blockquote>但事情变得危险的地方是：房主已经提前在房价上花费了预期的溢价。根据房地美的数据，去年美国房屋的股权贷款约为1527亿美元，比2019年大幅增长41.7%，是自2007年以来最高的再融资套现金额。</blockquote></p><p> Anyone remember what happened to the real-estate market in 2007? Or the similar sense of seller entitlement from those days? There’s no clear signs of a bubble bursting just yet, but there’s real risk American homeowners may be overly optimistic about what their homes are worth — and a chance this home equity loan free-for-all simply isn’t sustainable for much longer.</p><p><blockquote>有人记得2007年房地产市场发生了什么吗？还是当年类似的卖家权利感？目前还没有明显的泡沫破裂迹象，但美国房主可能对自己房屋的价值过于乐观，而且这种免费的房屋净值贷款可能不会持续太久。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-shelter-in-suburbia-trade-is-about-to-reverse-and-these-stocks-will-suffer-11624457411?siteid=yhoof2\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-shelter-in-suburbia-trade-is-about-to-reverse-and-these-stocks-will-suffer-11624457411?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187819280","content_text":"5 reasons the pandemic megatrend is over.\n\nOne of the biggest investment stories of the COVID-19 pandemic has been the boom in consumer discretionary stocks with a “shelter in suburbia” theme. From e-commerce platforms to home improvement stores to furniture and housewares merchants, many of the top performers have fit this flavor.\nTake the broad-based Vanguard Consumer Discretionary Index Fund ETF VCR, +0.66% that surged more than 90% from March 2020 to March 2021. That was thanks to components like home improvement stocks Lowe’s LOW, -0.30% and Home Depot HD, -0.33% alongside retailers like TJX TJX, -0.08%.\nLately, however, performance has started to lag for many of these names. In fact, since April 1 we’ve seen these three stocks all drift slightly into the red even as the S&P 500 SPX, -0.11% has tacked on about 6% in the same period.\nAnd some fear that may only be the beginning. As one Wall Street insider said recently in a Bloomberg interview, a “huge unwind” is coming for stay-at-home stocks, including hardware stores and home-goods merchants.\nWhile some big-name “suburbia” trades are still relatively stable, signs of trouble are already emerging at the fringes. Century Communities CCS, -0.34% and Dream Finders Homes DFH, -2.55%, two mid-tier single family homebuilders, have seen shares crash by double digits over the last month. On the furnishings side, appliance giant Whirlpool Corporation WHR, -0.51% and department store Nordstrom JWN, +2.03% are down sharply from their spring highs.\nHere are five big reasons why:\n1. The upgrade cycle is over\nLast summer, white-collar workers who were stuck at home made note of overdue projects and took advantage of being able to easily meet with contractors. But in many ways, this growth is not sustainable.\nConsider the kind of purchases homeowners were making according to data from the NPD Group. Faucets, kitchen cabinets and even toilets were among the most popular products sold in 2020. Needless to say, even the most profligate homeowners aren’t going to follow this upgrade cycle of remodeling kitchens and bathrooms on an annual basis.\nThe same is true for furniture and other home goods. Internet giant Comscore recorded the highest visitation to related websites in history in May 2020 with 133 million web surfers shopping for some kind of home goods. Once again, a new couch or lamp is not an annual purchase — so this trend seems unsustainable for much longer.\n2. Valuations are stretched\nSpeaking of post-pandemic peaks for home-goods purveyors, we’ve seen the financials bear out these big increases via boosted profits and sales. However, we’ve also seen the stock of many related merchants surge even more — stretching their valuations from historical norms.\nTake TJX. Currently this discount retailer has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of more than 26, compared with a forward P/E of just 21 in spring 2020. Its trailing price-to-sales ratio is now 2.1 compared with 1.4.\nWhat’s more, valuations for previous darlings like TJX are out of line with peers, too. Consider the forward P/E of the overall S&P 500 index is 22 right now, and other similar names like Macy’s M, +0.70% and Big Lots BIG, -3.71% actually have forward P/E ratios well under 10. You can argue TJX is unique, of course… but you also may want to be aware of what “fair value” looks like for many other stocks outside fashionable stay-at-home trades right now.\n3. Delays and shortages\nFuture growth from pandemic-fueled peaks in these stocks is not impossible, of course. But given supply chain disruptions it seems highly unlikely. There are a host of reasons for these delays, including overseas shipping delays as well as capacity and output crunches that are affecting many industries, but “stay at home” stocks seem particularly hard hit.\nHome improvement products are simply nowhere to be found, with roughly 94% of builders reporting “at least some serious shortages of appliances” according to the National Association of Home Builders. Another 93% are running short on framing lumber and 87% say it is hard to obtain windows and doors.\nEven if you can get past demand concerns, without the raw materials to get to work it’s very hard to see future growth in this category.\n4. Inflationary pressures\nFor the people who haven’t already ponied up the cash for a contractor or made their peace with extended delays for their expensive new furniture, there is a pretty big disincentive right now for new shoppers: inflation.\nThe cost of living as measured by the Consumer Price Index jumped 0.6% in May to run at a 5% annual rate. That was not only higher than expectations, but the fastest pace since the summer of 2008. The inflation risks were so pronounced that the Federal Reserve publicly stated it could move up the schedule for expected interest rate increases to keep the risks under wraps.\nInflation isn’t always a death knell, of course. But it has historically eroded purchasing power and could curtail some of the spending in “stay at home” stocks that we’ve seen in the last year or so.\n5. Home-equity hubris\nSpeaking of red-hot inflation: In May, the median price for U.S. homes topped $350,000 for the first time ever — up 23.6% from 2020. What’s more, a Realtor.com survey showed roughly a third of selling homeowners expect to get more than their asking price, and roughly the same amount expect an offer within a week of listing.\nSome of this is justifiable. Many articles have been written in recent years about the dearth of supply in attractive markets, and it’s important to acknowledge the remote work of the pandemic has indeed created some disruptive introspection into why people live where they do.\nBut here’s where things get dicey: homeowners who have already spent the expected premium on their home’s price well in advance. According to Freddie Mac, about $152.7 billion in equity loans were taken out on U.S. houses last year, a massive increase of 41.7% from 2019 and the highest refinancing cash-out dollar amount since 2007.\nAnyone remember what happened to the real-estate market in 2007? Or the similar sense of seller entitlement from those days? There’s no clear signs of a bubble bursting just yet, but there’s real risk American homeowners may be overly optimistic about what their homes are worth — and a chance this home equity loan free-for-all simply isn’t sustainable for much longer.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":493,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":883090205,"gmtCreate":1631185731907,"gmtModify":1631888790566,"author":{"id":"3584416898370318","authorId":"3584416898370318","name":"Yt64","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9824cc246c21cbb20e1583ad744abef8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584416898370318","idStr":"3584416898370318"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like and comment","listText":"Pls like and comment","text":"Pls like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/883090205","repostId":"2166122043","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1653,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":889185799,"gmtCreate":1631115029111,"gmtModify":1631888790574,"author":{"id":"3584416898370318","authorId":"3584416898370318","name":"Yt64","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9824cc246c21cbb20e1583ad744abef8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584416898370318","idStr":"3584416898370318"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like and comment&nbsp;","listText":"Pls like and comment&nbsp;","text":"Pls like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/889185799","repostId":"1154837170","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1154837170","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631090918,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1154837170?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-08 16:48","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Bitcoin Endured a Rocky Day. What's Behind the Selloff<blockquote>比特币经历了艰难的一天。抛售背后是什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154837170","media":"Barron's","summary":"It should have been a happy day for Bitcoin, but it’s turned into a rout.Bitcoin  was trading was around $47,000 on Tuesday afternoon, down 9% in the last 24 hours, after dipping down to $42,900 this morning. Bitcoin had been above $52,800 before the selloff.Other cryptos were also ailing, including Ethereum , down 12% to $3,460.The selloff may reflect profit-taking after prices started rising in late July. Bitcoin had gained more than 50% since late July when it traded around $34,000. Ethereum ","content":"<p>It should have been a happy day for Bitcoin, but it’s turned into a rout.</p><p><blockquote>对比特币来说，这应该是快乐的一天，但它变成了一场溃败。</blockquote></p><p> Bitcoin (ticker: BTC) was trading was around $47,000 on Tuesday afternoon, down 9% in the last 24 hours, after dipping down to $42,900 this morning. Bitcoin had been above $52,800 before the selloff.</p><p><blockquote>比特币（股票代码：BTC）周二下午的交易价格约为47,000美元，在今天上午跌至42,900美元后，过去24小时内下跌9%。在抛售之前，比特币股价已高于52,800美元。</blockquote></p><p> Other cryptos were also ailing, including Ethereum (ETH), down 12% to $3,460.</p><p><blockquote>其他加密货币也表现不佳，包括以太币(ETH)，下跌12%至3,460美元。</blockquote></p><p> The selloff may reflect profit-taking after prices started rising in late July. Bitcoin had gained more than 50% since late July when it traded around $34,000. Ethereum has also been flying, following a technical upgrade in its underlying blockchain network.</p><p><blockquote>抛售可能反映了7月下旬价格开始上涨后的获利了结。自7月底交易价格约为34,000美元以来，比特币已上涨超过50%。在对其底层区块链网络进行技术升级后，以太币也一直在飞行。</blockquote></p><p> The down day may also reflect a “sell the news” dynamic after El Salvador became the first country to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender, alongside the dollar– the country’s other official currency.</p><p><blockquote>下跌的一天也可能反映了萨尔瓦多成为第一个采用比特币作为法定货币以及该国另一种官方货币美元的国家后的“抛售新闻”动态。</blockquote></p><p> Merchants in El Salvador are now supposed to accept Bitcoin for goods and services. Citizens have been promised $30 worth of Bitcoin in their digital wallets by the government. McDonald’s has started accepting Bitcoin in El Salvador, according to Reuters. And the government of president Nayib Bukele has been buying Bitcoin, including at least $20 million worth, ahead of the official launch.</p><p><blockquote>萨尔瓦多的商人现在应该接受商品和服务的比特币。政府向公民承诺在他们的数字钱包中提供价值30美元的比特币。据路透社报道，麦当劳已经开始在萨尔瓦多接受比特币。在正式启动之前，纳伊布·布克莱总统的政府一直在购买比特币，其中包括价值至少2000万美元的资金。</blockquote></p><p> But El Salvador’s crypto experiment isn’t sitting well with organizations like the International Monetary Fund and World Bank, which have warned El Salvador that its adoption as legal tender could imperil financial stability. Other countries are cracking down on crypto transactions, mining, and exchanges, indicating that El Salvador may be an outlier for now.</p><p><blockquote>但萨尔瓦多的加密货币实验并没有得到国际货币基金组织和世界银行等组织的认可，这些组织警告萨尔瓦多，将其作为法定货币可能会危及金融稳定。其他国家正在打击加密货币交易、采矿和交易所，这表明萨尔瓦多目前可能是一个例外。</blockquote></p><p> Crypto watchers are also blaming technical factors for the market downturn. Assuming prices don’t suddenly surge, Bitcoin is now in for “outside-down” day, says Katie Stockton, founder and managing partner of Fairlead Strategies, a crypto-trading research firm. The means Bitcoin is trading in a wider range and headed for a lower close than yesterday (assuming a 5 p.m. cutoff, though it trades 24 hours).</p><p><blockquote>加密货币观察人士也将市场低迷归咎于技术因素。加密货币交易研究公司Fairlead Strategies的创始人兼管理合伙人Katie Stockton表示，假设价格不会突然飙升，比特币现在将迎来“外部下跌”的一天。这意味着比特币的交易范围更广，收盘价将低于昨天（假设下午5点截止，尽管它24小时交易）。</blockquote></p><p> “The implications are for additional consolidation,” she says. So far, the selloff looks like a minor setback, she adds, since Bitcoin hasn’t breached its 50-day moving average around $44,000, which is its next support level.</p><p><blockquote>“这意味着进一步整合，”她说。她补充道，到目前为止，抛售看起来像是一个小挫折，因为比特币尚未突破44,000美元左右的50日移动平均线，这是下一个支撑位。</blockquote></p><p> “A breach of $44,000 isn’t a breakdown,” she says. “It’s a test of the 50-day moving average. “There is strong support for Bitcoin and most crytpos pretty close to their current lows.”</p><p><blockquote>“违反44,000美元并不是崩溃，”她说。“这是对50日移动平均线的测试。“比特币和大多数加密货币都非常接近当前低点，”</blockquote></p><p> Other factors that may have contributed to the selloff include reports of outages and “unscheduled maintenance” at Bitfinix, a leading crypto exchange. Coinbase Global (ticker: COIN) also experienced a spike in outages around noon, according to Downdetector.</p><p><blockquote>其他可能导致抛售的因素包括领先的加密货币交易所Bitfinix的停电和“计划外维护”报告。据Downdetector称，Coinbase Global（股票代码：COIN）中午左右也经历了停电高峰。</blockquote></p><p> Even if prices stabilize from here, it’s a reminder that Bitcoin and other cryptos remain vulnerable to rapid-fire declines. While you may be able to buy a Big Mac with a sliver of Bitcoin in San Salvador, you may be better off keeping it in your digital wallet–or not–depending on the time of day.</p><p><blockquote>即使价格从这里稳定下来，这也提醒人们，比特币和其他加密货币仍然容易受到快速下跌的影响。虽然你可以在圣萨尔瓦多买到一个巨无霸和一片比特币，但你最好把它放在你的数字钱包里——或者不放在——这取决于一天中的不同时间。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bitcoin Endured a Rocky Day. What's Behind the Selloff<blockquote>比特币经历了艰难的一天。抛售背后是什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBitcoin Endured a Rocky Day. What's Behind the Selloff<blockquote>比特币经历了艰难的一天。抛售背后是什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barron's</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-08 16:48</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>It should have been a happy day for Bitcoin, but it’s turned into a rout.</p><p><blockquote>对比特币来说，这应该是快乐的一天，但它变成了一场溃败。</blockquote></p><p> Bitcoin (ticker: BTC) was trading was around $47,000 on Tuesday afternoon, down 9% in the last 24 hours, after dipping down to $42,900 this morning. Bitcoin had been above $52,800 before the selloff.</p><p><blockquote>比特币（股票代码：BTC）周二下午的交易价格约为47,000美元，在今天上午跌至42,900美元后，过去24小时内下跌9%。在抛售之前，比特币股价已高于52,800美元。</blockquote></p><p> Other cryptos were also ailing, including Ethereum (ETH), down 12% to $3,460.</p><p><blockquote>其他加密货币也表现不佳，包括以太币(ETH)，下跌12%至3,460美元。</blockquote></p><p> The selloff may reflect profit-taking after prices started rising in late July. Bitcoin had gained more than 50% since late July when it traded around $34,000. Ethereum has also been flying, following a technical upgrade in its underlying blockchain network.</p><p><blockquote>抛售可能反映了7月下旬价格开始上涨后的获利了结。自7月底交易价格约为34,000美元以来，比特币已上涨超过50%。在对其底层区块链网络进行技术升级后，以太币也一直在飞行。</blockquote></p><p> The down day may also reflect a “sell the news” dynamic after El Salvador became the first country to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender, alongside the dollar– the country’s other official currency.</p><p><blockquote>下跌的一天也可能反映了萨尔瓦多成为第一个采用比特币作为法定货币以及该国另一种官方货币美元的国家后的“抛售新闻”动态。</blockquote></p><p> Merchants in El Salvador are now supposed to accept Bitcoin for goods and services. Citizens have been promised $30 worth of Bitcoin in their digital wallets by the government. McDonald’s has started accepting Bitcoin in El Salvador, according to Reuters. And the government of president Nayib Bukele has been buying Bitcoin, including at least $20 million worth, ahead of the official launch.</p><p><blockquote>萨尔瓦多的商人现在应该接受商品和服务的比特币。政府向公民承诺在他们的数字钱包中提供价值30美元的比特币。据路透社报道，麦当劳已经开始在萨尔瓦多接受比特币。在正式启动之前，纳伊布·布克莱总统的政府一直在购买比特币，其中包括价值至少2000万美元的资金。</blockquote></p><p> But El Salvador’s crypto experiment isn’t sitting well with organizations like the International Monetary Fund and World Bank, which have warned El Salvador that its adoption as legal tender could imperil financial stability. Other countries are cracking down on crypto transactions, mining, and exchanges, indicating that El Salvador may be an outlier for now.</p><p><blockquote>但萨尔瓦多的加密货币实验并没有得到国际货币基金组织和世界银行等组织的认可，这些组织警告萨尔瓦多，将其作为法定货币可能会危及金融稳定。其他国家正在打击加密货币交易、采矿和交易所，这表明萨尔瓦多目前可能是一个例外。</blockquote></p><p> Crypto watchers are also blaming technical factors for the market downturn. Assuming prices don’t suddenly surge, Bitcoin is now in for “outside-down” day, says Katie Stockton, founder and managing partner of Fairlead Strategies, a crypto-trading research firm. The means Bitcoin is trading in a wider range and headed for a lower close than yesterday (assuming a 5 p.m. cutoff, though it trades 24 hours).</p><p><blockquote>加密货币观察人士也将市场低迷归咎于技术因素。加密货币交易研究公司Fairlead Strategies的创始人兼管理合伙人Katie Stockton表示，假设价格不会突然飙升，比特币现在将迎来“外部下跌”的一天。这意味着比特币的交易范围更广，收盘价将低于昨天（假设下午5点截止，尽管它24小时交易）。</blockquote></p><p> “The implications are for additional consolidation,” she says. So far, the selloff looks like a minor setback, she adds, since Bitcoin hasn’t breached its 50-day moving average around $44,000, which is its next support level.</p><p><blockquote>“这意味着进一步整合，”她说。她补充道，到目前为止，抛售看起来像是一个小挫折，因为比特币尚未突破44,000美元左右的50日移动平均线，这是下一个支撑位。</blockquote></p><p> “A breach of $44,000 isn’t a breakdown,” she says. “It’s a test of the 50-day moving average. “There is strong support for Bitcoin and most crytpos pretty close to their current lows.”</p><p><blockquote>“违反44,000美元并不是崩溃，”她说。“这是对50日移动平均线的测试。“比特币和大多数加密货币都非常接近当前低点，”</blockquote></p><p> Other factors that may have contributed to the selloff include reports of outages and “unscheduled maintenance” at Bitfinix, a leading crypto exchange. Coinbase Global (ticker: COIN) also experienced a spike in outages around noon, according to Downdetector.</p><p><blockquote>其他可能导致抛售的因素包括领先的加密货币交易所Bitfinix的停电和“计划外维护”报告。据Downdetector称，Coinbase Global（股票代码：COIN）中午左右也经历了停电高峰。</blockquote></p><p> Even if prices stabilize from here, it’s a reminder that Bitcoin and other cryptos remain vulnerable to rapid-fire declines. While you may be able to buy a Big Mac with a sliver of Bitcoin in San Salvador, you may be better off keeping it in your digital wallet–or not–depending on the time of day.</p><p><blockquote>即使价格从这里稳定下来，这也提醒人们，比特币和其他加密货币仍然容易受到快速下跌的影响。虽然你可以在圣萨尔瓦多买到一个巨无霸和一片比特币，但你最好把它放在你的数字钱包里——或者不放在——这取决于一天中的不同时间。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/bitcoin-crypto-prices-drop-today-51631048243?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Barron's</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GBTC":"比特币ETF-Grayscale","COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/bitcoin-crypto-prices-drop-today-51631048243?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154837170","content_text":"It should have been a happy day for Bitcoin, but it’s turned into a rout.\nBitcoin (ticker: BTC) was trading was around $47,000 on Tuesday afternoon, down 9% in the last 24 hours, after dipping down to $42,900 this morning. Bitcoin had been above $52,800 before the selloff.\nOther cryptos were also ailing, including Ethereum (ETH), down 12% to $3,460.\nThe selloff may reflect profit-taking after prices started rising in late July. Bitcoin had gained more than 50% since late July when it traded around $34,000. Ethereum has also been flying, following a technical upgrade in its underlying blockchain network.\nThe down day may also reflect a “sell the news” dynamic after El Salvador became the first country to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender, alongside the dollar– the country’s other official currency.\nMerchants in El Salvador are now supposed to accept Bitcoin for goods and services. Citizens have been promised $30 worth of Bitcoin in their digital wallets by the government. McDonald’s has started accepting Bitcoin in El Salvador, according to Reuters. And the government of president Nayib Bukele has been buying Bitcoin, including at least $20 million worth, ahead of the official launch.\nBut El Salvador’s crypto experiment isn’t sitting well with organizations like the International Monetary Fund and World Bank, which have warned El Salvador that its adoption as legal tender could imperil financial stability. Other countries are cracking down on crypto transactions, mining, and exchanges, indicating that El Salvador may be an outlier for now.\nCrypto watchers are also blaming technical factors for the market downturn. Assuming prices don’t suddenly surge, Bitcoin is now in for “outside-down” day, says Katie Stockton, founder and managing partner of Fairlead Strategies, a crypto-trading research firm. The means Bitcoin is trading in a wider range and headed for a lower close than yesterday (assuming a 5 p.m. cutoff, though it trades 24 hours).\n“The implications are for additional consolidation,” she says. So far, the selloff looks like a minor setback, she adds, since Bitcoin hasn’t breached its 50-day moving average around $44,000, which is its next support level.\n“A breach of $44,000 isn’t a breakdown,” she says. “It’s a test of the 50-day moving average. “There is strong support for Bitcoin and most crytpos pretty close to their current lows.”\nOther factors that may have contributed to the selloff include reports of outages and “unscheduled maintenance” at Bitfinix, a leading crypto exchange. Coinbase Global (ticker: COIN) also experienced a spike in outages around noon, according to Downdetector.\nEven if prices stabilize from here, it’s a reminder that Bitcoin and other cryptos remain vulnerable to rapid-fire declines. While you may be able to buy a Big Mac with a sliver of Bitcoin in San Salvador, you may be better off keeping it in your digital wallet–or not–depending on the time of day.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GBTC":0.9,"COIN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1340,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":177382145,"gmtCreate":1627180890387,"gmtModify":1631892251501,"author":{"id":"3584416898370318","authorId":"3584416898370318","name":"Yt64","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9824cc246c21cbb20e1583ad744abef8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584416898370318","idStr":"3584416898370318"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like and comment","listText":"Pls like and comment","text":"Pls like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177382145","repostId":"1112927800","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1112927800","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627089375,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1112927800?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-24 09:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Will NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks<blockquote>蔚来股票会追随特斯拉的脚步吗？这两只电动汽车股票之间需要考虑什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112927800","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Let's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.NIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.NIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.Both companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV p","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Let's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.</li>  <li>NIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.</li>  <li>NIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f749c70c8a2af3e18d5f6cecc72bfbb\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"704\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>ipopba/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>让我们来看看今天的蔚来与特斯拉相比如何，蔚来的独特卖点，以及两家公司的相似之处。</li><li>蔚来是一个高增长的选择，相对于特斯拉的估值，它似乎并不太昂贵。</li><li>然而，蔚来并不是一只低风险股票，它可能并不是每个人的好选择。投资者还应该考虑蔚来与传统汽车公司的估值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ipopba/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO, Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading EV players, and has, through an attractive brand and its unique BaaS offering, attracted a lot of interest from consumers and investors. Today, however, the company is still way smaller than Tesla (TSLA), which is currently leading the global EV market. NIO is focused on its home market right now, which was true when Tesla was a smaller company as well, but NIO will try to grab market share in overseas markets as well. Shares are pricing in a lot of growth already, but if NIO can replicate Tesla's success, that could be more than justified.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来公司（蔚来）是中国领先的电动汽车制造商之一，通过其有吸引力的品牌和独特的BaaS产品吸引了消费者和投资者的极大兴趣。然而，如今，该公司仍然比目前引领全球电动汽车市场的特斯拉（TSLA）小得多。蔚来目前专注于国内市场，当特斯拉还是一家较小的公司时也是如此，但蔚来也将试图在海外市场抢占市场份额。股价已经反映了很大的增长，但如果蔚来能够复制特斯拉的成功，这可能是非常合理的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO And TSLA Stock Prices</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来和特斯拉股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Both companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV pureplays rise rapidly. The combination of growing market share for EVs, accommodating policies such as subsidies for EV purchases, and massive monetary stimulus let shares of NIO and TSLA rise rapidly. NIO is up 245% over the last year, while TSLA is up 101% over the same time. Both companies are currently trading below their all-time highs, however, which were hit in early 2021 before market sentiment for EV pureplays cooled to some degree.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，两家公司都受益于人们对电动汽车日益增长的兴趣，这一趋势导致大多数纯电动汽车公司的股价迅速上涨。电动汽车市场份额不断增长、电动汽车购买补贴等宽松政策以及大规模货币刺激措施相结合，让蔚来和特斯拉的股价迅速上涨。蔚来去年上涨了245%，而特斯拉同期上涨了101%。然而，两家公司目前的交易价格均低于2021年初创下的历史高点，随后纯电动汽车的市场情绪在一定程度上降温。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ff5ce865807df85283775d2293b41af\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Taking a quick look at analyst price targets, we see that Tesla is trading almost perfectly in line with the consensus, whereas NIO trades about 30% below the analyst target. If the analyst community is right, then NIO is a substantially better investment right here, as Tesla is not expected to see its shares rise meaningfully over the next year, whereas NIO has significant upside to the analyst price target.</p><p><blockquote>快速浏览一下分析师的目标价，我们发现特斯拉的交易价格几乎完全符合共识，而蔚来的交易价格比分析师目标低约30%。如果分析师界是正确的，那么蔚来是一项更好的投资，因为预计特斯拉的股价明年不会大幅上涨，而蔚来的股价较分析师目标价有显着上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO Similar To Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来和特斯拉相似吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that question depends on what you focus on. There are similarities between the two companies, but there are also differences. One could thus say that, in some ways, the two are similar, but in others, they are not. Let's look at a couple of things:</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案取决于你关注的是什么。两家公司有相似之处，但也有不同之处。因此，人们可以说，在某些方面，两者是相似的，但在另一些方面，它们不是。让我们看几件事：</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Both companies are focused on the EV space, although Tesla has, over the years, been building out a couple of other businesses as well, such as energy storage. Most of Tesla's revenues are generated through selling electric vehicles, which is also how NIO operates. Both companies are focused on the premium segment of EVs, selling higher-priced vehicles that compete with brands such as BMW, Mercedes, and Lexus. Both companies offer a small range of different vehicles, in Tesla's case those are the well-known S, X, 3, and Y, whereas NIO offers a sedan (ET7), and three SUVs (EC6, ES6, ES8). Despite the fact that NIO is a way smaller company today, the model lineups of the two companies do thus not differ too much.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都专注于电动汽车领域，尽管特斯拉多年来也在发展其他一些业务，例如储能。特斯拉的大部分收入来自销售电动汽车，这也是蔚来的运营方式。两家公司都专注于电动汽车的高端市场，销售与宝马、梅赛德斯和雷克萨斯等品牌竞争的高价汽车。两家公司都提供少量不同的车辆，特斯拉是著名的S、X、3和Y，而蔚来则提供一款轿车(ET7)和三款SUV(EC6、ES6、ES8)。尽管蔚来如今是一家规模较小的公司，但两家公司的车型阵容并没有太大差异。</blockquote></p><p> Both companies offer some type of charging infrastructure to their customers, in Tesla's case, that's the Supercharger network, where Tesla owners can charge their cars with up to 250kW, depending on what version of Supercharger is installed. NIO is following a different approach, offering a battery-as-a-service solution to its customers. NIO owners can get their battery switched out to a fully-charged battery at NIO's stations, a process that takes a couple of minutes and is thus significantly quicker compared to the regular EV charging offered by Tesla and other EV players. BaaS thus has advantages when it comes to the time it takes for a charge/swap, but it should be noted that Tesla's Superchargers are way more common around the world compared to NIO's battery-swapping stations. Rolling out that feature in additional markets will require large capital expenditures, but NIO's offering is a unique selling point compared to what all other EV players, including Tesla, are offering. It remains to be seen whether that will ultimately pay off, but this could become a major advantage for NIO as competition in the EV space is heating up.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都向客户提供某种类型的充电基础设施，就特斯拉而言，这就是Supercharger网络，特斯拉车主可以根据安装的Supercharger版本为汽车充电高达250kW。蔚来正在采取不同的方法，为客户提供电池即服务解决方案。蔚来车主可以在蔚来的充电站将电池更换为充满电的电池，这一过程需要几分钟，因此与特斯拉和其他电动汽车厂商提供的常规电动汽车充电相比要快得多。因此，BaaS在充电/交换所需时间方面具有优势，但应该指出的是，与蔚来的电池交换站相比，特斯拉的超级充电站在世界各地更为常见。在其他市场推出该功能将需要大量资本支出，但与包括特斯拉在内的所有其他电动汽车厂商相比，蔚来的产品是一个独特的卖点。这最终是否会得到回报还有待观察，但随着电动汽车领域的竞争加剧，这可能成为蔚来的一大优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Size, growth, and valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>规模、增长和估值</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The two companies differ significantly in size, both when it comes to revenues and vehicle sales, as well as when it comes to the market value of the two companies. NIO has delivered22,000 vehicles in Q2, up 112% year over year, for an annual pace of around 90,000 vehicles. Tesla, meanwhile, has delivered 201,000 vehicles during Q2, up from 103,000 vehicles delivered during Q2 2020. This is strong growth on a year-over-year basis, although slightly below 100%, and thus below the growth rate that NIO is generating for now.</p><p><blockquote>这两家公司的规模差异很大，无论是在收入和汽车销量方面，还是在两家公司的市值方面。蔚来第二季度交付了22,000辆汽车，同比增长112%，年增长率约为90,000辆。与此同时，特斯拉在第二季度交付了201,000辆汽车，高于2020年第二季度的103,000辆汽车。这是一个强劲的同比增长，尽管略低于100%，因此低于蔚来目前的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla delivers around 9x as many vehicles compared to NIO per quarter, when we look at the market capitalizations of the two companies, we see that the ratio is almost exactly the same, as Tesla's market cap of $640 billion is ~9x as high as that of NIO, at $72 billion. At similar growth rates, that would make perfect sense, but it looks like NIO might be the better deal for now, as it trades at a comparable valuation while generating better growth. This will be especially true in the coming quarters, where Tesla's growth is expected to slow down:</p><p><blockquote>与蔚来相比，特斯拉每季度交付的汽车数量约为9倍，当我们查看两家公司的市值时，我们发现这一比例几乎完全相同，因为特斯拉6400亿美元的市值约为9倍。蔚来的市值为720亿美元。在类似的增长率下，这是完全有道理的，但目前看来蔚来可能是更好的交易，因为它的估值相当，同时产生更好的增长。在未来几个季度尤其如此，预计特斯拉的增长将放缓：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a986ea65130206f99961a46ce6cfed55\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Tesla is forecasted to grow its revenue from $49 billion in 2021 to $83 billion in 2023, for an annual growth rate of 30%. NIO, meanwhile, is expected to see its revenue explode upwards from $5.4 billion to $12.8 billion between 2021 and 2023, for an annual growth rate of 54%. NIO is thus expected to grow way faster than Tesla over the next two years, on a relative basis. This shouldn't be a surprise, to be honest, as the law of large numbers dictates that maintaining massive growth rates becomes increasingly hard for a company the bigger it gets, and Tesla seems to have hit that point by now -- adding 50%+ a year to its top line will not be possible forever. This isn't even necessarily Tesla's fault, in fact, many high-quality growth companies have experienced the same. But investors should still consider this important fact -- Tesla's growth in coming years will be less exciting compared to what we have seen in the past, and peers, such as NIO, are growing faster.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉的收入预计将从2021年的490亿美元增长到2023年的830亿美元，年增长率为30%。与此同时，蔚来的收入预计将在2021年至2023年间从54亿美元猛增至128亿美元，年增长率为54%。因此，相对而言，预计未来两年蔚来的增长速度将远远快于特斯拉。老实说，这并不奇怪，因为大数定律表明，对于一家规模越大的公司来说，保持大幅增长率就变得越来越困难，而特斯拉现在似乎已经达到了这一点——每年增加50%以上的收入将永远不可能。这甚至不一定是特斯拉的错，事实上，许多优质成长型公司都经历过同样的事情。但投资者仍应考虑这一重要事实——与我们过去看到的相比，特斯拉未来几年的增长将不那么令人兴奋，而蔚来等同行的增长速度更快。</blockquote></p><p> The same holds true when we take a longer-term view. Revenue estimates for 2025 rest at$22.6 billionfor NIO, up another 80% from the 2023 estimate, and up 320% from what analysts are forecasting for 2021. Tesla, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate revenues of $122.5 billion in 2025 -- a large number, but up by a comparatively weak 48% from 2023, and up by a total of 150% versus 2021. Between 2021 and 2025, NIO will thus 4x its revenue, while Tesla will 2.5x its revenue in the same time span -- a meaningful difference that should, all else equal, allow for a premium valuation for NIO, in the same way Tesla deserves a premium valuation versus legacy players such as Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY).</p><p><blockquote>当我们从长远来看时，情况也是如此。蔚来2025年的收入预期为226亿美元，比2023年的预期再增长80%，比分析师对2021年的预测增长320%。与此同时，特斯拉预计2025年的收入将达到1,225亿美元，这是一个很大的数字，但比2023年增长了48%，比2021年总共增长了150%。因此，在2021年至2025年间，蔚来的收入将增加4倍，而特斯拉的收入将在同一时期增加2.5倍——在其他条件相同的情况下，这是一个有意义的差异，应该允许蔚来获得溢价估值，就像特斯拉一样。与大众汽车（OTCPK：VWAGY）等传统企业相比，它值得获得溢价估值。</blockquote></p><p> Looking at revenue estimates for 2025 relative to how the two companies are valued today, we see that NIO trades at 3.2x 2025 sales, while the 2025 sales multiple for Tesla is 5.2. For a long-term oriented investor, NIO thus seems like the better value today, thanks to the fact that it is trading at a significantly lower sales multiple when we take a look into the future. This does not necessarily mean that NIO is cheap, however, as even a 3.2x 2025 sales multiple is relatively high compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. NIO is looking less expensive than Tesla, however, even if its shares are not cheap on an absolute basis.</p><p><blockquote>相对于两家公司目前的估值来看2025年的收入预期，我们发现蔚来的市盈率为2025年销售额的3.2倍，而特斯拉2025年的销售额倍数为5.2倍。因此，对于长期投资者来说，蔚来今天似乎更有价值，因为当我们展望未来时，它的销售倍数要低得多。然而，这并不一定意味着蔚来很便宜，因为与传统汽车公司的估值相比，即使2025年3.2倍的销售倍数也相对较高。然而，蔚来看起来比特斯拉便宜，尽管其股价绝对并不便宜。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Can NIO Be Worth As Much As Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来能和特斯拉一样值钱吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that depends on what time frame you are looking at. Today, NIO is significantly smaller than Tesla and thus rightfully trades at a way smaller market cap. It should also be noted that there is no guarantee that Tesla's shares are a great example of how an EV company should be valued -- it is, at least, possible that its shares are significantly&nbsp;overpriced&nbsp;today, I personally believe that as well (Note that some will argue that shares are&nbsp;underpriced, which is also among the possibilities, although I do not hold that belief personally).</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案取决于你所关注的时间框架。如今，蔚来的规模明显小于特斯拉，因此其市值也相应地小得多。还应该指出的是，不能保证特斯拉的股票是电动汽车公司应该如何估值的一个很好的例子——至少，它的股票今天有可能被严重高估，我个人也相信这一点（请注意，有些人会认为股票定价过低，这也是一种可能性，尽管我个人并不持有这种信念）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> When we do, for a moment, assume that Tesla is correctly valued today and that EV companies do deserve a market cap in the $600 billion range when they sell about 800,000 vehicles a year, then NIO could eventually hit that as well, although not in the near term. NIO will sell about 90,000 vehicles this year, and that amount should grow to about 400,000 in 2025. If NIO were to grow its sales by 15% a year beyond that point, it could sell around 800,000 cars in 2030, or 9 years from now. If one wants to assume faster growth, the 800,000 vehicles a year line could also be crossed before 2030, e.g. in 2028 or 2029. If we do go with 2030 for now, then NIO could, at a similar deliveries-to-market capitalization ratio to Tesla, be valued at $600+ billion in 2030. In other words, NIO could be worth as much as Tesla (today) in nine years, when we assume that current growth projections are realistic and that a Tesla-like valuation is appropriate. Those are two major ifs, of course, and especially the second point is far from certain, I believe. I personally would not be too surprised to see Tesla's valuation compress, and thus NIO could trade well below the $600 billion market cap level in 2030, even if it continues to grow meaningfully. It is also possible that NIO's growth disappoints and that current projections are too bullish, although I think that NIO is well-positioned for growth thanks to its unique BaaS model and its strong brand that is especially well-recognized in its home market.</p><p><blockquote>当我们暂时假设特斯拉今天的估值是正确的，并且电动汽车公司每年销售约80万辆汽车时确实应该获得6000亿美元的市值时，那么蔚来最终也可能达到这一目标，尽管不是在短期内。蔚来今年将销售约9万辆汽车，2025年这一数字将增长至约40万辆。如果蔚来的销量在此之后每年增长15%，那么到2030年（即9年后），它可能会售出约80万辆汽车。如果想要更快的增长，也可以在2030年之前跨越每年80万辆汽车的界限，例如2028年或2029年。如果我们现在确实选择2030年，那么按照与特斯拉类似的交付量与市值比率，蔚来到2030年的估值可能会超过6000亿美元。换句话说，如果我们假设当前的增长预测是现实的，并且类似特斯拉的估值是合适的，那么九年后蔚来的价值可能会与特斯拉（今天）一样高。当然，这是两个主要的如果，尤其是第二点，我认为还远未确定。我个人不会对特斯拉的估值压缩感到太惊讶，因此蔚来的市值在2030年可能远低于6000亿美元的水平，即使它继续大幅增长。蔚来的增长也有可能令人失望，目前的预测过于乐观，尽管我认为蔚来凭借其独特的BaaS模式和在国内市场特别受认可的强大品牌，处于良好的增长地位。</blockquote></p><p> It should also be noted that Tesla's market cap in 2030 could be very different from $600 billion, thus even in case NIO hits that level, it is not at all guaranteed that the two companies will have a similar market cap. Tesla might be valued at a way higher valuation by then, e.g. if the ARK model is right (something I personally think is unlikely). To answer the above question, one could thus say that NIO might be worth hundreds of billions of dollars, like Tesla, in 8-10 years, but that is not at all guaranteed. And even if that were to happen, Tesla might be worth significantly more by then.</p><p><blockquote>还应该指出的是，特斯拉2030年的市值可能与6000亿美元有很大不同，因此即使蔚来达到这一水平，也不能保证两家公司的市值会相似。到那时，特斯拉的估值可能会高得多，例如如果方舟模型是正确的（我个人认为不太可能）。为了回答上述问题，人们可以说，蔚来可能在8-10年内像特斯拉一样价值数千亿美元，但这根本不能保证。即使这种情况发生，到那时特斯拉的价值也可能会高得多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO A Good Stock To Buy Or Sell Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来现在是买入或卖出的好股票吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> When considering NIO as an investment, it doesn't really matter all that much whether it will become as large or highly valued as Tesla eventually. Instead, investors should ask themselves what total returns they can expect over the next couple of years, and whether those expected returns are high enough relative to the risks in NIO's business model. Regarding those risks, one should mention the fact that the company isn't profitable yet, which means that NIO is dependent on cash on its balance sheet for growth investments. On top of that, competition in the EV space is growing, and market share battles could pressure margins in coming years, although NIO seems relatively well-positioned thanks to its battery-swapping, which is, I believe, a strong USP. Last but not least, the company's dependence on its home market China is a potential risk that should be kept in mind, although it should also be noted that, for now, it seems like the Chinese government is very accommodating to Chinese EV companies.</p><p><blockquote>当将蔚来视为一项投资时，它最终是否会变得像特斯拉一样庞大或估值很高并不重要。相反，投资者应该问自己，未来几年他们可以预期的总回报是多少，以及相对于蔚来商业模式的风险，这些预期回报是否足够高。关于这些风险，应该提到的事实是，该公司尚未盈利，这意味着蔚来依赖其资产负债表上的现金进行增长投资。最重要的是，电动汽车领域的竞争正在加剧，市场份额之争可能会在未来几年给利润率带来压力，尽管蔚来似乎由于其电池交换而处于相对有利的地位，我认为这是一个强大的USP。最后但并非最不重要的是，该公司对中国本土市场的依赖是一个应该牢记的潜在风险，尽管还应该指出的是，目前中国政府似乎对中国电动汽车公司非常包容。</blockquote></p><p> One could argue that valuations across the whole EV industry are too high, relative to how legacy auto companies are valued. Even those legacy players with attractive EV offerings such as Volkswagen or Ford trade at huge discounts compared to EV pureplays. But if one wants to invest in an EV pureplay, NIO doesn't seem like a bad choice. The company combines a strong brand, a unique BaaS offering, high growth rates, and shares trade at a discount compared to how the EV king Tesla is valued. At a little above 3x 2025 revenue, NIO does not seem overly expensive relative to other EV pureplays, although this still represents a premium versus legacy players, of course. If NIO manages to execute well and continues to roll out new models that are well-received by consumers, its shares could have significant upside potential in the long run. If EV stocks ever become an out-of-favor investment, NIO stock also could have considerable downside, however, this thus is not a low-risk pick. Depending on your risk tolerance, NIO could still be of value if you want a high-growth EV pureplay.</p><p><blockquote>有人可能会说，相对于传统汽车公司的估值，整个电动汽车行业的估值过高。与纯电动汽车相比，即使是大众汽车或福特等拥有有吸引力的电动汽车产品的传统企业，其交易也有巨大的折扣。但如果你想投资纯电动汽车，蔚来似乎是一个不错的选择。该公司结合了强大的品牌、独特的BaaS产品、高增长率，并且与电动汽车之王特斯拉的估值相比，股票交易价格有折扣。与其他纯电动汽车公司相比，蔚来2025年收入略高于3倍，似乎并不算太贵，当然，与传统公司相比，这仍然代表着溢价。如果蔚来能够表现良好并继续推出深受消费者欢迎的新车型，从长远来看，其股价可能具有巨大的上涨潜力。如果电动汽车股票成为不受欢迎的投资，蔚来股票也可能有相当大的下跌空间，然而，这并不是一个低风险的选择。根据您的风险承受能力，如果您想要高增长的纯电动汽车，蔚来仍然可能具有价值。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks<blockquote>蔚来股票会追随特斯拉的脚步吗？这两只电动汽车股票之间需要考虑什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks<blockquote>蔚来股票会追随特斯拉的脚步吗？这两只电动汽车股票之间需要考虑什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-24 09:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Let's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.</li>  <li>NIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.</li>  <li>NIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f749c70c8a2af3e18d5f6cecc72bfbb\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"704\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>ipopba/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>让我们来看看今天的蔚来与特斯拉相比如何，蔚来的独特卖点，以及两家公司的相似之处。</li><li>蔚来是一个高增长的选择，相对于特斯拉的估值，它似乎并不太昂贵。</li><li>然而，蔚来并不是一只低风险股票，它可能并不是每个人的好选择。投资者还应该考虑蔚来与传统汽车公司的估值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ipopba/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO, Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading EV players, and has, through an attractive brand and its unique BaaS offering, attracted a lot of interest from consumers and investors. Today, however, the company is still way smaller than Tesla (TSLA), which is currently leading the global EV market. NIO is focused on its home market right now, which was true when Tesla was a smaller company as well, but NIO will try to grab market share in overseas markets as well. Shares are pricing in a lot of growth already, but if NIO can replicate Tesla's success, that could be more than justified.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来公司（蔚来）是中国领先的电动汽车制造商之一，通过其有吸引力的品牌和独特的BaaS产品吸引了消费者和投资者的极大兴趣。然而，如今，该公司仍然比目前引领全球电动汽车市场的特斯拉（TSLA）小得多。蔚来目前专注于国内市场，当特斯拉还是一家较小的公司时也是如此，但蔚来也将试图在海外市场抢占市场份额。股价已经反映了很大的增长，但如果蔚来能够复制特斯拉的成功，这可能是非常合理的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO And TSLA Stock Prices</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来和特斯拉股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Both companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV pureplays rise rapidly. The combination of growing market share for EVs, accommodating policies such as subsidies for EV purchases, and massive monetary stimulus let shares of NIO and TSLA rise rapidly. NIO is up 245% over the last year, while TSLA is up 101% over the same time. Both companies are currently trading below their all-time highs, however, which were hit in early 2021 before market sentiment for EV pureplays cooled to some degree.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，两家公司都受益于人们对电动汽车日益增长的兴趣，这一趋势导致大多数纯电动汽车公司的股价迅速上涨。电动汽车市场份额不断增长、电动汽车购买补贴等宽松政策以及大规模货币刺激措施相结合，让蔚来和特斯拉的股价迅速上涨。蔚来去年上涨了245%，而特斯拉同期上涨了101%。然而，两家公司目前的交易价格均低于2021年初创下的历史高点，随后纯电动汽车的市场情绪在一定程度上降温。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ff5ce865807df85283775d2293b41af\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Taking a quick look at analyst price targets, we see that Tesla is trading almost perfectly in line with the consensus, whereas NIO trades about 30% below the analyst target. If the analyst community is right, then NIO is a substantially better investment right here, as Tesla is not expected to see its shares rise meaningfully over the next year, whereas NIO has significant upside to the analyst price target.</p><p><blockquote>快速浏览一下分析师的目标价，我们发现特斯拉的交易价格几乎完全符合共识，而蔚来的交易价格比分析师目标低约30%。如果分析师界是正确的，那么蔚来是一项更好的投资，因为预计特斯拉的股价明年不会大幅上涨，而蔚来的股价较分析师目标价有显着上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO Similar To Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来和特斯拉相似吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that question depends on what you focus on. There are similarities between the two companies, but there are also differences. One could thus say that, in some ways, the two are similar, but in others, they are not. Let's look at a couple of things:</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案取决于你关注的是什么。两家公司有相似之处，但也有不同之处。因此，人们可以说，在某些方面，两者是相似的，但在另一些方面，它们不是。让我们看几件事：</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Both companies are focused on the EV space, although Tesla has, over the years, been building out a couple of other businesses as well, such as energy storage. Most of Tesla's revenues are generated through selling electric vehicles, which is also how NIO operates. Both companies are focused on the premium segment of EVs, selling higher-priced vehicles that compete with brands such as BMW, Mercedes, and Lexus. Both companies offer a small range of different vehicles, in Tesla's case those are the well-known S, X, 3, and Y, whereas NIO offers a sedan (ET7), and three SUVs (EC6, ES6, ES8). Despite the fact that NIO is a way smaller company today, the model lineups of the two companies do thus not differ too much.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都专注于电动汽车领域，尽管特斯拉多年来也在发展其他一些业务，例如储能。特斯拉的大部分收入来自销售电动汽车，这也是蔚来的运营方式。两家公司都专注于电动汽车的高端市场，销售与宝马、梅赛德斯和雷克萨斯等品牌竞争的高价汽车。两家公司都提供少量不同的车辆，特斯拉是著名的S、X、3和Y，而蔚来则提供一款轿车(ET7)和三款SUV(EC6、ES6、ES8)。尽管蔚来如今是一家规模较小的公司，但两家公司的车型阵容并没有太大差异。</blockquote></p><p> Both companies offer some type of charging infrastructure to their customers, in Tesla's case, that's the Supercharger network, where Tesla owners can charge their cars with up to 250kW, depending on what version of Supercharger is installed. NIO is following a different approach, offering a battery-as-a-service solution to its customers. NIO owners can get their battery switched out to a fully-charged battery at NIO's stations, a process that takes a couple of minutes and is thus significantly quicker compared to the regular EV charging offered by Tesla and other EV players. BaaS thus has advantages when it comes to the time it takes for a charge/swap, but it should be noted that Tesla's Superchargers are way more common around the world compared to NIO's battery-swapping stations. Rolling out that feature in additional markets will require large capital expenditures, but NIO's offering is a unique selling point compared to what all other EV players, including Tesla, are offering. It remains to be seen whether that will ultimately pay off, but this could become a major advantage for NIO as competition in the EV space is heating up.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都向客户提供某种类型的充电基础设施，就特斯拉而言，这就是Supercharger网络，特斯拉车主可以根据安装的Supercharger版本为汽车充电高达250kW。蔚来正在采取不同的方法，为客户提供电池即服务解决方案。蔚来车主可以在蔚来的充电站将电池更换为充满电的电池，这一过程需要几分钟，因此与特斯拉和其他电动汽车厂商提供的常规电动汽车充电相比要快得多。因此，BaaS在充电/交换所需时间方面具有优势，但应该指出的是，与蔚来的电池交换站相比，特斯拉的超级充电站在世界各地更为常见。在其他市场推出该功能将需要大量资本支出，但与包括特斯拉在内的所有其他电动汽车厂商相比，蔚来的产品是一个独特的卖点。这最终是否会得到回报还有待观察，但随着电动汽车领域的竞争加剧，这可能成为蔚来的一大优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Size, growth, and valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>规模、增长和估值</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The two companies differ significantly in size, both when it comes to revenues and vehicle sales, as well as when it comes to the market value of the two companies. NIO has delivered22,000 vehicles in Q2, up 112% year over year, for an annual pace of around 90,000 vehicles. Tesla, meanwhile, has delivered 201,000 vehicles during Q2, up from 103,000 vehicles delivered during Q2 2020. This is strong growth on a year-over-year basis, although slightly below 100%, and thus below the growth rate that NIO is generating for now.</p><p><blockquote>这两家公司的规模差异很大，无论是在收入和汽车销量方面，还是在两家公司的市值方面。蔚来第二季度交付了22,000辆汽车，同比增长112%，年增长率约为90,000辆。与此同时，特斯拉在第二季度交付了201,000辆汽车，高于2020年第二季度的103,000辆汽车。这是一个强劲的同比增长，尽管略低于100%，因此低于蔚来目前的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla delivers around 9x as many vehicles compared to NIO per quarter, when we look at the market capitalizations of the two companies, we see that the ratio is almost exactly the same, as Tesla's market cap of $640 billion is ~9x as high as that of NIO, at $72 billion. At similar growth rates, that would make perfect sense, but it looks like NIO might be the better deal for now, as it trades at a comparable valuation while generating better growth. This will be especially true in the coming quarters, where Tesla's growth is expected to slow down:</p><p><blockquote>与蔚来相比，特斯拉每季度交付的汽车数量约为9倍，当我们查看两家公司的市值时，我们发现这一比例几乎完全相同，因为特斯拉6400亿美元的市值约为9倍。蔚来的市值为720亿美元。在类似的增长率下，这是完全有道理的，但目前看来蔚来可能是更好的交易，因为它的估值相当，同时产生更好的增长。在未来几个季度尤其如此，预计特斯拉的增长将放缓：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a986ea65130206f99961a46ce6cfed55\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Tesla is forecasted to grow its revenue from $49 billion in 2021 to $83 billion in 2023, for an annual growth rate of 30%. NIO, meanwhile, is expected to see its revenue explode upwards from $5.4 billion to $12.8 billion between 2021 and 2023, for an annual growth rate of 54%. NIO is thus expected to grow way faster than Tesla over the next two years, on a relative basis. This shouldn't be a surprise, to be honest, as the law of large numbers dictates that maintaining massive growth rates becomes increasingly hard for a company the bigger it gets, and Tesla seems to have hit that point by now -- adding 50%+ a year to its top line will not be possible forever. This isn't even necessarily Tesla's fault, in fact, many high-quality growth companies have experienced the same. But investors should still consider this important fact -- Tesla's growth in coming years will be less exciting compared to what we have seen in the past, and peers, such as NIO, are growing faster.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉的收入预计将从2021年的490亿美元增长到2023年的830亿美元，年增长率为30%。与此同时，蔚来的收入预计将在2021年至2023年间从54亿美元猛增至128亿美元，年增长率为54%。因此，相对而言，预计未来两年蔚来的增长速度将远远快于特斯拉。老实说，这并不奇怪，因为大数定律表明，对于一家规模越大的公司来说，保持大幅增长率就变得越来越困难，而特斯拉现在似乎已经达到了这一点——每年增加50%以上的收入将永远不可能。这甚至不一定是特斯拉的错，事实上，许多优质成长型公司都经历过同样的事情。但投资者仍应考虑这一重要事实——与我们过去看到的相比，特斯拉未来几年的增长将不那么令人兴奋，而蔚来等同行的增长速度更快。</blockquote></p><p> The same holds true when we take a longer-term view. Revenue estimates for 2025 rest at$22.6 billionfor NIO, up another 80% from the 2023 estimate, and up 320% from what analysts are forecasting for 2021. Tesla, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate revenues of $122.5 billion in 2025 -- a large number, but up by a comparatively weak 48% from 2023, and up by a total of 150% versus 2021. Between 2021 and 2025, NIO will thus 4x its revenue, while Tesla will 2.5x its revenue in the same time span -- a meaningful difference that should, all else equal, allow for a premium valuation for NIO, in the same way Tesla deserves a premium valuation versus legacy players such as Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY).</p><p><blockquote>当我们从长远来看时，情况也是如此。蔚来2025年的收入预期为226亿美元，比2023年的预期再增长80%，比分析师对2021年的预测增长320%。与此同时，特斯拉预计2025年的收入将达到1,225亿美元，这是一个很大的数字，但比2023年增长了48%，比2021年总共增长了150%。因此，在2021年至2025年间，蔚来的收入将增加4倍，而特斯拉的收入将在同一时期增加2.5倍——在其他条件相同的情况下，这是一个有意义的差异，应该允许蔚来获得溢价估值，就像特斯拉一样。与大众汽车（OTCPK：VWAGY）等传统企业相比，它值得获得溢价估值。</blockquote></p><p> Looking at revenue estimates for 2025 relative to how the two companies are valued today, we see that NIO trades at 3.2x 2025 sales, while the 2025 sales multiple for Tesla is 5.2. For a long-term oriented investor, NIO thus seems like the better value today, thanks to the fact that it is trading at a significantly lower sales multiple when we take a look into the future. This does not necessarily mean that NIO is cheap, however, as even a 3.2x 2025 sales multiple is relatively high compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. NIO is looking less expensive than Tesla, however, even if its shares are not cheap on an absolute basis.</p><p><blockquote>相对于两家公司目前的估值来看2025年的收入预期，我们发现蔚来的市盈率为2025年销售额的3.2倍，而特斯拉2025年的销售额倍数为5.2倍。因此，对于长期投资者来说，蔚来今天似乎更有价值，因为当我们展望未来时，它的销售倍数要低得多。然而，这并不一定意味着蔚来很便宜，因为与传统汽车公司的估值相比，即使2025年3.2倍的销售倍数也相对较高。然而，蔚来看起来比特斯拉便宜，尽管其股价绝对并不便宜。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Can NIO Be Worth As Much As Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来能和特斯拉一样值钱吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that depends on what time frame you are looking at. Today, NIO is significantly smaller than Tesla and thus rightfully trades at a way smaller market cap. It should also be noted that there is no guarantee that Tesla's shares are a great example of how an EV company should be valued -- it is, at least, possible that its shares are significantly&nbsp;overpriced&nbsp;today, I personally believe that as well (Note that some will argue that shares are&nbsp;underpriced, which is also among the possibilities, although I do not hold that belief personally).</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案取决于你所关注的时间框架。如今，蔚来的规模明显小于特斯拉，因此其市值也相应地小得多。还应该指出的是，不能保证特斯拉的股票是电动汽车公司应该如何估值的一个很好的例子——至少，它的股票今天有可能被严重高估，我个人也相信这一点（请注意，有些人会认为股票定价过低，这也是一种可能性，尽管我个人并不持有这种信念）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> When we do, for a moment, assume that Tesla is correctly valued today and that EV companies do deserve a market cap in the $600 billion range when they sell about 800,000 vehicles a year, then NIO could eventually hit that as well, although not in the near term. NIO will sell about 90,000 vehicles this year, and that amount should grow to about 400,000 in 2025. If NIO were to grow its sales by 15% a year beyond that point, it could sell around 800,000 cars in 2030, or 9 years from now. If one wants to assume faster growth, the 800,000 vehicles a year line could also be crossed before 2030, e.g. in 2028 or 2029. If we do go with 2030 for now, then NIO could, at a similar deliveries-to-market capitalization ratio to Tesla, be valued at $600+ billion in 2030. In other words, NIO could be worth as much as Tesla (today) in nine years, when we assume that current growth projections are realistic and that a Tesla-like valuation is appropriate. Those are two major ifs, of course, and especially the second point is far from certain, I believe. I personally would not be too surprised to see Tesla's valuation compress, and thus NIO could trade well below the $600 billion market cap level in 2030, even if it continues to grow meaningfully. It is also possible that NIO's growth disappoints and that current projections are too bullish, although I think that NIO is well-positioned for growth thanks to its unique BaaS model and its strong brand that is especially well-recognized in its home market.</p><p><blockquote>当我们暂时假设特斯拉今天的估值是正确的，并且电动汽车公司每年销售约80万辆汽车时确实应该获得6000亿美元的市值时，那么蔚来最终也可能达到这一目标，尽管不是在短期内。蔚来今年将销售约9万辆汽车，2025年这一数字将增长至约40万辆。如果蔚来的销量在此之后每年增长15%，那么到2030年（即9年后），它可能会售出约80万辆汽车。如果想要更快的增长，也可以在2030年之前跨越每年80万辆汽车的界限，例如2028年或2029年。如果我们现在确实选择2030年，那么按照与特斯拉类似的交付量与市值比率，蔚来到2030年的估值可能会超过6000亿美元。换句话说，如果我们假设当前的增长预测是现实的，并且类似特斯拉的估值是合适的，那么九年后蔚来的价值可能会与特斯拉（今天）一样高。当然，这是两个主要的如果，尤其是第二点，我认为还远未确定。我个人不会对特斯拉的估值压缩感到太惊讶，因此蔚来的市值在2030年可能远低于6000亿美元的水平，即使它继续大幅增长。蔚来的增长也有可能令人失望，目前的预测过于乐观，尽管我认为蔚来凭借其独特的BaaS模式和在国内市场特别受认可的强大品牌，处于良好的增长地位。</blockquote></p><p> It should also be noted that Tesla's market cap in 2030 could be very different from $600 billion, thus even in case NIO hits that level, it is not at all guaranteed that the two companies will have a similar market cap. Tesla might be valued at a way higher valuation by then, e.g. if the ARK model is right (something I personally think is unlikely). To answer the above question, one could thus say that NIO might be worth hundreds of billions of dollars, like Tesla, in 8-10 years, but that is not at all guaranteed. And even if that were to happen, Tesla might be worth significantly more by then.</p><p><blockquote>还应该指出的是，特斯拉2030年的市值可能与6000亿美元有很大不同，因此即使蔚来达到这一水平，也不能保证两家公司的市值会相似。到那时，特斯拉的估值可能会高得多，例如如果方舟模型是正确的（我个人认为不太可能）。为了回答上述问题，人们可以说，蔚来可能在8-10年内像特斯拉一样价值数千亿美元，但这根本不能保证。即使这种情况发生，到那时特斯拉的价值也可能会高得多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO A Good Stock To Buy Or Sell Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来现在是买入或卖出的好股票吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> When considering NIO as an investment, it doesn't really matter all that much whether it will become as large or highly valued as Tesla eventually. Instead, investors should ask themselves what total returns they can expect over the next couple of years, and whether those expected returns are high enough relative to the risks in NIO's business model. Regarding those risks, one should mention the fact that the company isn't profitable yet, which means that NIO is dependent on cash on its balance sheet for growth investments. On top of that, competition in the EV space is growing, and market share battles could pressure margins in coming years, although NIO seems relatively well-positioned thanks to its battery-swapping, which is, I believe, a strong USP. Last but not least, the company's dependence on its home market China is a potential risk that should be kept in mind, although it should also be noted that, for now, it seems like the Chinese government is very accommodating to Chinese EV companies.</p><p><blockquote>当将蔚来视为一项投资时，它最终是否会变得像特斯拉一样庞大或估值很高并不重要。相反，投资者应该问自己，未来几年他们可以预期的总回报是多少，以及相对于蔚来商业模式的风险，这些预期回报是否足够高。关于这些风险，应该提到的事实是，该公司尚未盈利，这意味着蔚来依赖其资产负债表上的现金进行增长投资。最重要的是，电动汽车领域的竞争正在加剧，市场份额之争可能会在未来几年给利润率带来压力，尽管蔚来似乎由于其电池交换而处于相对有利的地位，我认为这是一个强大的USP。最后但并非最不重要的是，该公司对中国本土市场的依赖是一个应该牢记的潜在风险，尽管还应该指出的是，目前中国政府似乎对中国电动汽车公司非常包容。</blockquote></p><p> One could argue that valuations across the whole EV industry are too high, relative to how legacy auto companies are valued. Even those legacy players with attractive EV offerings such as Volkswagen or Ford trade at huge discounts compared to EV pureplays. But if one wants to invest in an EV pureplay, NIO doesn't seem like a bad choice. The company combines a strong brand, a unique BaaS offering, high growth rates, and shares trade at a discount compared to how the EV king Tesla is valued. At a little above 3x 2025 revenue, NIO does not seem overly expensive relative to other EV pureplays, although this still represents a premium versus legacy players, of course. If NIO manages to execute well and continues to roll out new models that are well-received by consumers, its shares could have significant upside potential in the long run. If EV stocks ever become an out-of-favor investment, NIO stock also could have considerable downside, however, this thus is not a low-risk pick. Depending on your risk tolerance, NIO could still be of value if you want a high-growth EV pureplay.</p><p><blockquote>有人可能会说，相对于传统汽车公司的估值，整个电动汽车行业的估值过高。与纯电动汽车相比，即使是大众汽车或福特等拥有有吸引力的电动汽车产品的传统企业，其交易也有巨大的折扣。但如果你想投资纯电动汽车，蔚来似乎是一个不错的选择。该公司结合了强大的品牌、独特的BaaS产品、高增长率，并且与电动汽车之王特斯拉的估值相比，股票交易价格有折扣。与其他纯电动汽车公司相比，蔚来2025年收入略高于3倍，似乎并不算太贵，当然，与传统公司相比，这仍然代表着溢价。如果蔚来能够表现良好并继续推出深受消费者欢迎的新车型，从长远来看，其股价可能具有巨大的上涨潜力。如果电动汽车股票成为不受欢迎的投资，蔚来股票也可能有相当大的下跌空间，然而，这并不是一个低风险的选择。根据您的风险承受能力，如果您想要高增长的纯电动汽车，蔚来仍然可能具有价值。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440950-will-nio-stock-follow-tesla-what-to-consider-ev-stocks\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440950-will-nio-stock-follow-tesla-what-to-consider-ev-stocks","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112927800","content_text":"Summary\n\nLet's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.\nNIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.\nNIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.\n\nipopba/iStock via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nNIO, Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading EV players, and has, through an attractive brand and its unique BaaS offering, attracted a lot of interest from consumers and investors. Today, however, the company is still way smaller than Tesla (TSLA), which is currently leading the global EV market. NIO is focused on its home market right now, which was true when Tesla was a smaller company as well, but NIO will try to grab market share in overseas markets as well. Shares are pricing in a lot of growth already, but if NIO can replicate Tesla's success, that could be more than justified.\nNIO And TSLA Stock Prices\nBoth companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV pureplays rise rapidly. The combination of growing market share for EVs, accommodating policies such as subsidies for EV purchases, and massive monetary stimulus let shares of NIO and TSLA rise rapidly. NIO is up 245% over the last year, while TSLA is up 101% over the same time. Both companies are currently trading below their all-time highs, however, which were hit in early 2021 before market sentiment for EV pureplays cooled to some degree.\nData by YCharts\nTaking a quick look at analyst price targets, we see that Tesla is trading almost perfectly in line with the consensus, whereas NIO trades about 30% below the analyst target. If the analyst community is right, then NIO is a substantially better investment right here, as Tesla is not expected to see its shares rise meaningfully over the next year, whereas NIO has significant upside to the analyst price target.\nIs NIO Similar To Tesla?\nThe answer to that question depends on what you focus on. There are similarities between the two companies, but there are also differences. One could thus say that, in some ways, the two are similar, but in others, they are not. Let's look at a couple of things:\nBusiness Model\nBoth companies are focused on the EV space, although Tesla has, over the years, been building out a couple of other businesses as well, such as energy storage. Most of Tesla's revenues are generated through selling electric vehicles, which is also how NIO operates. Both companies are focused on the premium segment of EVs, selling higher-priced vehicles that compete with brands such as BMW, Mercedes, and Lexus. Both companies offer a small range of different vehicles, in Tesla's case those are the well-known S, X, 3, and Y, whereas NIO offers a sedan (ET7), and three SUVs (EC6, ES6, ES8). Despite the fact that NIO is a way smaller company today, the model lineups of the two companies do thus not differ too much.\nBoth companies offer some type of charging infrastructure to their customers, in Tesla's case, that's the Supercharger network, where Tesla owners can charge their cars with up to 250kW, depending on what version of Supercharger is installed. NIO is following a different approach, offering a battery-as-a-service solution to its customers. NIO owners can get their battery switched out to a fully-charged battery at NIO's stations, a process that takes a couple of minutes and is thus significantly quicker compared to the regular EV charging offered by Tesla and other EV players. BaaS thus has advantages when it comes to the time it takes for a charge/swap, but it should be noted that Tesla's Superchargers are way more common around the world compared to NIO's battery-swapping stations. Rolling out that feature in additional markets will require large capital expenditures, but NIO's offering is a unique selling point compared to what all other EV players, including Tesla, are offering. It remains to be seen whether that will ultimately pay off, but this could become a major advantage for NIO as competition in the EV space is heating up.\nSize, growth, and valuation\nThe two companies differ significantly in size, both when it comes to revenues and vehicle sales, as well as when it comes to the market value of the two companies. NIO has delivered22,000 vehicles in Q2, up 112% year over year, for an annual pace of around 90,000 vehicles. Tesla, meanwhile, has delivered 201,000 vehicles during Q2, up from 103,000 vehicles delivered during Q2 2020. This is strong growth on a year-over-year basis, although slightly below 100%, and thus below the growth rate that NIO is generating for now.\nTesla delivers around 9x as many vehicles compared to NIO per quarter, when we look at the market capitalizations of the two companies, we see that the ratio is almost exactly the same, as Tesla's market cap of $640 billion is ~9x as high as that of NIO, at $72 billion. At similar growth rates, that would make perfect sense, but it looks like NIO might be the better deal for now, as it trades at a comparable valuation while generating better growth. This will be especially true in the coming quarters, where Tesla's growth is expected to slow down:\nData by YCharts\nTesla is forecasted to grow its revenue from $49 billion in 2021 to $83 billion in 2023, for an annual growth rate of 30%. NIO, meanwhile, is expected to see its revenue explode upwards from $5.4 billion to $12.8 billion between 2021 and 2023, for an annual growth rate of 54%. NIO is thus expected to grow way faster than Tesla over the next two years, on a relative basis. This shouldn't be a surprise, to be honest, as the law of large numbers dictates that maintaining massive growth rates becomes increasingly hard for a company the bigger it gets, and Tesla seems to have hit that point by now -- adding 50%+ a year to its top line will not be possible forever. This isn't even necessarily Tesla's fault, in fact, many high-quality growth companies have experienced the same. But investors should still consider this important fact -- Tesla's growth in coming years will be less exciting compared to what we have seen in the past, and peers, such as NIO, are growing faster.\nThe same holds true when we take a longer-term view. Revenue estimates for 2025 rest at$22.6 billionfor NIO, up another 80% from the 2023 estimate, and up 320% from what analysts are forecasting for 2021. Tesla, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate revenues of $122.5 billion in 2025 -- a large number, but up by a comparatively weak 48% from 2023, and up by a total of 150% versus 2021. Between 2021 and 2025, NIO will thus 4x its revenue, while Tesla will 2.5x its revenue in the same time span -- a meaningful difference that should, all else equal, allow for a premium valuation for NIO, in the same way Tesla deserves a premium valuation versus legacy players such as Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY).\nLooking at revenue estimates for 2025 relative to how the two companies are valued today, we see that NIO trades at 3.2x 2025 sales, while the 2025 sales multiple for Tesla is 5.2. For a long-term oriented investor, NIO thus seems like the better value today, thanks to the fact that it is trading at a significantly lower sales multiple when we take a look into the future. This does not necessarily mean that NIO is cheap, however, as even a 3.2x 2025 sales multiple is relatively high compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. NIO is looking less expensive than Tesla, however, even if its shares are not cheap on an absolute basis.\nCan NIO Be Worth As Much As Tesla?\nThe answer to that depends on what time frame you are looking at. Today, NIO is significantly smaller than Tesla and thus rightfully trades at a way smaller market cap. It should also be noted that there is no guarantee that Tesla's shares are a great example of how an EV company should be valued -- it is, at least, possible that its shares are significantly overpriced today, I personally believe that as well (Note that some will argue that shares are underpriced, which is also among the possibilities, although I do not hold that belief personally).\nWhen we do, for a moment, assume that Tesla is correctly valued today and that EV companies do deserve a market cap in the $600 billion range when they sell about 800,000 vehicles a year, then NIO could eventually hit that as well, although not in the near term. NIO will sell about 90,000 vehicles this year, and that amount should grow to about 400,000 in 2025. If NIO were to grow its sales by 15% a year beyond that point, it could sell around 800,000 cars in 2030, or 9 years from now. If one wants to assume faster growth, the 800,000 vehicles a year line could also be crossed before 2030, e.g. in 2028 or 2029. If we do go with 2030 for now, then NIO could, at a similar deliveries-to-market capitalization ratio to Tesla, be valued at $600+ billion in 2030. In other words, NIO could be worth as much as Tesla (today) in nine years, when we assume that current growth projections are realistic and that a Tesla-like valuation is appropriate. Those are two major ifs, of course, and especially the second point is far from certain, I believe. I personally would not be too surprised to see Tesla's valuation compress, and thus NIO could trade well below the $600 billion market cap level in 2030, even if it continues to grow meaningfully. It is also possible that NIO's growth disappoints and that current projections are too bullish, although I think that NIO is well-positioned for growth thanks to its unique BaaS model and its strong brand that is especially well-recognized in its home market.\nIt should also be noted that Tesla's market cap in 2030 could be very different from $600 billion, thus even in case NIO hits that level, it is not at all guaranteed that the two companies will have a similar market cap. Tesla might be valued at a way higher valuation by then, e.g. if the ARK model is right (something I personally think is unlikely). To answer the above question, one could thus say that NIO might be worth hundreds of billions of dollars, like Tesla, in 8-10 years, but that is not at all guaranteed. And even if that were to happen, Tesla might be worth significantly more by then.\nIs NIO A Good Stock To Buy Or Sell Now?\nWhen considering NIO as an investment, it doesn't really matter all that much whether it will become as large or highly valued as Tesla eventually. Instead, investors should ask themselves what total returns they can expect over the next couple of years, and whether those expected returns are high enough relative to the risks in NIO's business model. Regarding those risks, one should mention the fact that the company isn't profitable yet, which means that NIO is dependent on cash on its balance sheet for growth investments. On top of that, competition in the EV space is growing, and market share battles could pressure margins in coming years, although NIO seems relatively well-positioned thanks to its battery-swapping, which is, I believe, a strong USP. Last but not least, the company's dependence on its home market China is a potential risk that should be kept in mind, although it should also be noted that, for now, it seems like the Chinese government is very accommodating to Chinese EV companies.\nOne could argue that valuations across the whole EV industry are too high, relative to how legacy auto companies are valued. Even those legacy players with attractive EV offerings such as Volkswagen or Ford trade at huge discounts compared to EV pureplays. But if one wants to invest in an EV pureplay, NIO doesn't seem like a bad choice. The company combines a strong brand, a unique BaaS offering, high growth rates, and shares trade at a discount compared to how the EV king Tesla is valued. At a little above 3x 2025 revenue, NIO does not seem overly expensive relative to other EV pureplays, although this still represents a premium versus legacy players, of course. If NIO manages to execute well and continues to roll out new models that are well-received by consumers, its shares could have significant upside potential in the long run. If EV stocks ever become an out-of-favor investment, NIO stock also could have considerable downside, however, this thus is not a low-risk pick. Depending on your risk tolerance, NIO could still be of value if you want a high-growth EV pureplay.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9,"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":535,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171329102,"gmtCreate":1626707175606,"gmtModify":1631892251559,"author":{"id":"3584416898370318","authorId":"3584416898370318","name":"Yt64","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9824cc246c21cbb20e1583ad744abef8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584416898370318","idStr":"3584416898370318"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like","listText":"Pls like","text":"Pls like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/171329102","repostId":"1146536243","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146536243","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626683272,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1146536243?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-19 16:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual<blockquote>摩根士丹利：本轮周期将比往常“更热但更短”</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146536243","media":"zerohedge","summary":"This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.","content":"<p>We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为这个经济周期将是正常的、强劲的、短暂的。这些假设中的每一个都受到市场的激烈争论。每一项都是我们投资策略的关键。</blockquote></p><p> The debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.</p><p><blockquote>关于周期“常态”的争论是不言自明的。毫不夸张地说，疫情造成了有记录以来最大幅度的产出下降。随后，在政策支持的帮助下，经济活动迅速回升。将这种情况视为独特的，不同于其他周期性经历的理由是，这种暴力的下跌和上涨从未允许传统的“重置”。</blockquote></p><p> But 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.</p><p><blockquote>但市场中的“正常”是一个有趣的概念，记忆的粗糙边缘往往会随着时间的推移而变得光滑和抛光。2003-07年的周期以大萧条以来最大的银行和房地产危机结束。1992-2000年的周期以巨大的股票泡沫破裂、广泛的会计欺诈和难以言喻的悲剧而告终。“正常”周期在理论上很好，但在实践中更难。</blockquote></p><p> Instead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.</p><p><blockquote>相反，让我们考虑一下为什么我们使用术语“周期”。经济和市场往往遵循周期性模式，这些模式往往会在市场表现中显现出来。我们关心的是那些模式，如果它们仍然适用，它们可以在不确定的地形中提供有用的指导。</blockquote></p><p> Was last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.</p><p><blockquote>去年的衰退之前是否存在收益率曲线倒挂、低波动性、低失业率、高消费者信心和股市广度收窄等周期后期条件？是的。由此产生的股票、信贷、收益率和收益率曲线的低谷是否符合市场和经济低点之间的通常节奏？他们做到了。随后反弹的领头羊是否是通常的早期周期赢家，如小型股和周期性股票、高收益信贷和工业金属？他们是。</blockquote></p><p> If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are.&nbsp;If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should&nbsp;<i>continue</i>&nbsp;to do so.</p><p><blockquote>如果它像鸭子一样走路，像鸭子一样嘎嘎叫，我们认为这是一个正常的循环。或者这些事情实际上是正常的。如果到目前为止已经发生了很多“正常”的循环行为，那么它应该<i>继续</i>这样做。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see&nbsp;The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，这与市场复苏时的表现模式有关。随着复苏的推进，这些模式应该会发生变化。正如我的同事迈克尔·威尔逊所指出的，我们认为我们正在进入周期中期市场，尽管距离经济活动低点仅16个月。我们看到当前状况与2004年上半年有许多相似之处，2004年上半年是大幅通货再膨胀反弹之后的周期中期。重要的是，尽管最近对增长感到担忧，但我们认为全球复苏将继续推进（见增长恐慌周年纪念，2021年7月11日）。</blockquote></p><p> Because one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.<b>It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.</b></p><p><blockquote>因为人们总能找到适合他们特定周期观点的指标，所以我们长期以来一直是综合指数的粉丝。这就是我们的“周期模型”，它结合了美国宏观、信贷周期和企业侵略性的十个指标，以衡量我们在市场周期中的位置。在2019年6月进入周期后期“低迷”和2020年4月进入周期早期“修复”后，该指数飙升。<b>它上升得如此之快，以至于已经过了下一个阶段（“复苏”），直接进入了“扩张”。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41879c4f66b33597ee236bdd52841004\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Thisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',<b>and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends</b>. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.<b>It also hints at another possibility:&nbsp;this hotter cycle could be shorter.</b>This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.</p><p><blockquote>这很不寻常。“扩张”意味着捕捉“比正常情况更好且正在改善”的条件，<b>自1980年以来，“低迷”结束后平均需要35个月才能实现这一目标</b>它的迅速到来表明，在巨大的政策支持下，经济正在迅速复苏。<b>这也暗示了另一种可能性：这个更热的周期可能会更短。</b>这是我们的论点，它体现在我们的定量测量中。</blockquote></p><p> All this has a number of implications:</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都有许多含义：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>The shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases</b>. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.</li>  <li><b>In many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low</b>. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.</li>  <li><b>In equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios</b>. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.</li>  <li><b>Interest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model</b>. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.</li> </ul> This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>周期越短，信贷相对于其他风险资产越差；信贷从“繁荣”中获得的收益较少，如果下一次衰退提前到来，信贷就会面临风险，并且随着企业信心的增强，信贷将面临更多的供应</b>在我们周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国IG和HY Credit N1200万超额回报分别比平均水平差29个基点和161个基点。</li><li><b>在其中许多时期，尽管违约率仍然很低，但信贷表现却参差不齐</b>投资者应该尝试承担违约风险而不是利差风险：我们的信用策略师喜欢持有CDX HY 0-15%，并用CDX IG付款人利差进行对冲。</li><li><b>在股票方面，我们认为我们的模型支持投资组合更加平衡</b>我们看好美国和欧洲的医疗保健行业，因为该行业具有几个良好的因素：质量、低估值、高利差和低波动性。从全球来看，欧洲和日本的股市往往跑赢“中期周期”，我们认为它们可以再次这样做。</li><li><b>利率对复苏过于悲观。在我们周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国10年期国债1200万奈拉回报率比平均水平低97个基点</b>.Guneet Dhingra和我们的美国利率策略团队在全球资产配置中转移了跑输大盘美国10年期国债，而我们反过来又转移了跑输大盘政府债券。</li></ul>这种循环是不寻常的。大多数“正常”周期都是。我们认为复苏是可持续的，而且更有可能“更热、更短”。出售国债并相信扩张。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual<blockquote>摩根士丹利：本轮周期将比往常“更热但更短”</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual<blockquote>摩根士丹利：本轮周期将比往常“更热但更短”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-19 16:27</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为这个经济周期将是正常的、强劲的、短暂的。这些假设中的每一个都受到市场的激烈争论。每一项都是我们投资策略的关键。</blockquote></p><p> The debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.</p><p><blockquote>关于周期“常态”的争论是不言自明的。毫不夸张地说，疫情造成了有记录以来最大幅度的产出下降。随后，在政策支持的帮助下，经济活动迅速回升。将这种情况视为独特的，不同于其他周期性经历的理由是，这种暴力的下跌和上涨从未允许传统的“重置”。</blockquote></p><p> But 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.</p><p><blockquote>但市场中的“正常”是一个有趣的概念，记忆的粗糙边缘往往会随着时间的推移而变得光滑和抛光。2003-07年的周期以大萧条以来最大的银行和房地产危机结束。1992-2000年的周期以巨大的股票泡沫破裂、广泛的会计欺诈和难以言喻的悲剧而告终。“正常”周期在理论上很好，但在实践中更难。</blockquote></p><p> Instead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.</p><p><blockquote>相反，让我们考虑一下为什么我们使用术语“周期”。经济和市场往往遵循周期性模式，这些模式往往会在市场表现中显现出来。我们关心的是那些模式，如果它们仍然适用，它们可以在不确定的地形中提供有用的指导。</blockquote></p><p> Was last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.</p><p><blockquote>去年的衰退之前是否存在收益率曲线倒挂、低波动性、低失业率、高消费者信心和股市广度收窄等周期后期条件？是的。由此产生的股票、信贷、收益率和收益率曲线的低谷是否符合市场和经济低点之间的通常节奏？他们做到了。随后反弹的领头羊是否是通常的早期周期赢家，如小型股和周期性股票、高收益信贷和工业金属？他们是。</blockquote></p><p> If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are.&nbsp;If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should&nbsp;<i>continue</i>&nbsp;to do so.</p><p><blockquote>如果它像鸭子一样走路，像鸭子一样嘎嘎叫，我们认为这是一个正常的循环。或者这些事情实际上是正常的。如果到目前为止已经发生了很多“正常”的循环行为，那么它应该<i>继续</i>这样做。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see&nbsp;The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，这与市场复苏时的表现模式有关。随着复苏的推进，这些模式应该会发生变化。正如我的同事迈克尔·威尔逊所指出的，我们认为我们正在进入周期中期市场，尽管距离经济活动低点仅16个月。我们看到当前状况与2004年上半年有许多相似之处，2004年上半年是大幅通货再膨胀反弹之后的周期中期。重要的是，尽管最近对增长感到担忧，但我们认为全球复苏将继续推进（见增长恐慌周年纪念，2021年7月11日）。</blockquote></p><p> Because one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.<b>It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.</b></p><p><blockquote>因为人们总能找到适合他们特定周期观点的指标，所以我们长期以来一直是综合指数的粉丝。这就是我们的“周期模型”，它结合了美国宏观、信贷周期和企业侵略性的十个指标，以衡量我们在市场周期中的位置。在2019年6月进入周期后期“低迷”和2020年4月进入周期早期“修复”后，该指数飙升。<b>它上升得如此之快，以至于已经过了下一个阶段（“复苏”），直接进入了“扩张”。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41879c4f66b33597ee236bdd52841004\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Thisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',<b>and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends</b>. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.<b>It also hints at another possibility:&nbsp;this hotter cycle could be shorter.</b>This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.</p><p><blockquote>这很不寻常。“扩张”意味着捕捉“比正常情况更好且正在改善”的条件，<b>自1980年以来，“低迷”结束后平均需要35个月才能实现这一目标</b>它的迅速到来表明，在巨大的政策支持下，经济正在迅速复苏。<b>这也暗示了另一种可能性：这个更热的周期可能会更短。</b>这是我们的论点，它体现在我们的定量测量中。</blockquote></p><p> All this has a number of implications:</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都有许多含义：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>The shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases</b>. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.</li>  <li><b>In many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low</b>. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.</li>  <li><b>In equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios</b>. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.</li>  <li><b>Interest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model</b>. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.</li> </ul> This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>周期越短，信贷相对于其他风险资产越差；信贷从“繁荣”中获得的收益较少，如果下一次衰退提前到来，信贷就会面临风险，并且随着企业信心的增强，信贷将面临更多的供应</b>在我们周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国IG和HY Credit N1200万超额回报分别比平均水平差29个基点和161个基点。</li><li><b>在其中许多时期，尽管违约率仍然很低，但信贷表现却参差不齐</b>投资者应该尝试承担违约风险而不是利差风险：我们的信用策略师喜欢持有CDX HY 0-15%，并用CDX IG付款人利差进行对冲。</li><li><b>在股票方面，我们认为我们的模型支持投资组合更加平衡</b>我们看好美国和欧洲的医疗保健行业，因为该行业具有几个良好的因素：质量、低估值、高利差和低波动性。从全球来看，欧洲和日本的股市往往跑赢“中期周期”，我们认为它们可以再次这样做。</li><li><b>利率对复苏过于悲观。在我们周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国10年期国债1200万奈拉回报率比平均水平低97个基点</b>.Guneet Dhingra和我们的美国利率策略团队在全球资产配置中转移了跑输大盘美国10年期国债，而我们反过来又转移了跑输大盘政府债券。</li></ul>这种循环是不寻常的。大多数“正常”周期都是。我们认为复苏是可持续的，而且更有可能“更热、更短”。出售国债并相信扩张。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146536243","content_text":"We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.\nThe debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.\nBut 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.\nInstead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.\nWas last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.\nIf it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are. If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should continue to do so.\nSpecifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).\nBecause one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.\nThisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.It also hints at another possibility: this hotter cycle could be shorter.This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.\nAll this has a number of implications:\n\nThe shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.\nIn many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.\nIn equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.\nInterest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.\n\nThis cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":339,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":158264092,"gmtCreate":1625151701016,"gmtModify":1633944198431,"author":{"id":"3584416898370318","authorId":"3584416898370318","name":"Yt64","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9824cc246c21cbb20e1583ad744abef8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584416898370318","idStr":"3584416898370318"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like","listText":"Pls like","text":"Pls like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/158264092","repostId":"1199212665","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1199212665","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625146084,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1199212665?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-01 21:28","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Expensive Tech Stocks to Buy in the Next Market Crash<blockquote>下一次市场崩盘时值得买入的3只昂贵科技股</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199212665","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Get ready to buy Snowflake and two other hot tech stocks if this frothy market collapses.","content":"<p>Many high-growth tech stocks have seen price pullbacks over the past few months, due to concerns about higher bond yields, inflation, and decelerating growth for companies that benefited from the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>由于担心债券收益率上升、通货膨胀以及受益于疫情的公司增长放缓，许多高增长科技股在过去几个月出现了价格回调。</blockquote></p><p> That sell-off created some buying opportunities -- but some of the sector's pricier names merely pulled back slightly, held onto their gains, or even rallied. That relative strength is admirable, but it's a bit frustrating for investors who don't want to pay the wrong price for the right company.</p><p><blockquote>这次抛售创造了一些买入机会，但该行业一些价格较高的股票只是小幅回调，保持涨幅，甚至上涨。这种相对实力令人钦佩，但对于那些不想为合适的公司支付错误价格的投资者来说，这有点令人沮丧。</blockquote></p><p> That's why I'm making a shopping list of expensive tech stocks which I'd eagerly buy during the next market crash. Let's take a look at three of those companies:<b>Snowflake</b>(NYSE:SNOW),<b>Twilio</b>(NYSE:TWLO), and&nbsp;<b>CrowdStrike</b>(NASDAQ:CRWD).</p><p><blockquote>这就是为什么我列出了一份昂贵科技股的购物清单，这些股票是我在下一次市场崩盘时急切购买的。让我们来看看其中三家公司：<b>雪花</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：SNOW），<b>Twilio</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：TWLO），以及<b>CrowdStrike</b>（纳斯达克：CRWD）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fde232ce39d9cd52a01fd6ec018cae53\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Snowflake</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.雪花</b></blockquote></p><p> Snowflake was one of the hottest tech IPOs of 2020, thanks to its jaw-dropping growth rates and big investments from&nbsp;<b>Berkshire Hathaway</b>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<b>salesforce.com</b>.</p><p><blockquote>Snowflake是2020年最热门的科技IPO之一，这要归功于其令人瞠目结舌的增长率和来自<b>伯克希尔哈撒韦</b>和<b>salesforce.com</b>.</blockquote></p><p> Snowflake'scloud-baseddata warehouse pulls all of a company's data onto a single platform, where it can then be fed into third-party data visualization apps. Its service breaks down the silos between different departments and computing platforms, which makes it easier for large companies to make data-driven decisions.</p><p><blockquote>Snowflake基于云的数据仓库将公司的所有数据拉到一个平台上，然后可以将其输入第三方数据可视化应用程序。它的服务打破了不同部门和计算平台之间的孤岛，使大公司更容易做出数据驱动的决策。</blockquote></p><p> Snowflake's number of customers jumped 73% to 4,139 in fiscal 2021 (which ended this January), including 186 of the Fortune 500 companies. Its revenue surged 124% to $592 million, as its net retention rate -- which gauges its year-over-year revenue growth per existing customer -- hit 165%.</p><p><blockquote>Snowflake的客户数量在2021财年（截至今年1月）跃升73%至4,139家，其中包括186家财富500强公司。其收入飙升124%，达到5.92亿美元，净保留率（衡量每个现有客户的收入同比增长）达到165%。</blockquote></p><p> That growth continued in the first quarter of 2022. Its revenue rose 110% year over year to $228.9 million, its number of customers increased 67% to 4,532, and it achieved a net retention rate of 168%.</p><p><blockquote>这种增长在2022年第一季度仍在继续。其收入同比增长110%至2.289亿美元，客户数量增长67%至4,532人，净保留率达到168%。</blockquote></p><p> But Snowflake isn't profitable yet. ItsGAAPnet loss widened from $348.5 million in fiscal 2020 to $539.1 million in fiscal 2021, and<i>more than doubled</i>from $93.6 million to $203.2 million in the first quarter of 2022. It's also unprofitable on a non-GAAP basis, which excludes its stock-based compensation expenses.</p><p><blockquote>但Snowflake尚未盈利。其GAAP净亏损从2020财年的3.485亿美元扩大至2021财年的5.391亿美元，并且<i>翻了一倍多</i>2022年第一季度从9360万美元增至2.032亿美元。在非公认会计准则的基础上，它也是无利可图的，这不包括其股票薪酬费用。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts expect Snowflake's revenue to rise 88% this year, with a narrower loss. However, its stock still trades at 65 times this year's sales -- which indicates there's still far too much growth baked into the stock. But if Snowflake gets cut in half in a crash, I'd considerstarting a big position.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计Snowflake今年的收入将增长88%，亏损将收窄。然而，其股价仍是今年销售额的65倍，这表明该股仍有太多增长。但如果雪花在崩盘中被切成两半，我会考虑建立一个大头寸。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Twilio</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.Twilio</b></blockquote></p><p> Twilio's cloud platform processes text messages, calls, and videos within apps. For example, it helps&nbsp;<b>Lyft</b>'s passengers contact their drivers, and&nbsp;<b>Airbnb</b>'s guests reach their hosts.</p><p><blockquote>Twilio的云平台在应用程序中处理短信、评级和视频。例如，它有助于<b>Lyft</b>的乘客联系他们的司机，并且<b>爱彼迎</b>的客人到达他们的主人。</blockquote></p><p> In the past, developers built those tools from scratch, which was generally time-consuming, buggy, and difficult to scale. However, developers can now outsource those features to Twilio's cloud service by simply adding a few lines of code to their apps.</p><p><blockquote>过去，开发人员从头开始构建这些工具，这通常很耗时、有缺陷且难以扩展。然而，开发人员现在只需在他们的应用程序中添加几行代码，就可以将这些功能外包给Twilio的云服务。</blockquote></p><p> Twilio's revenue rose 55% to $1.76 billion in 2020. Its net expansion rate, which is comparable to Snowflake's net retention rate, reached 137%. In the first quarter of 2021, its revenue jumped 62% year over year to $590 million as it integrated its recent purchase of the customer data firm Segment.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，Twilio的收入增长了55%，达到17.6亿美元。其净扩张率与Snowflake的净留存率相当，达到了137%。2021年第一季度，由于整合了最近收购的客户数据公司部门，其收入同比增长62%至5.9亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Twilio remains unprofitable on a GAAP basis, but its non-GAAP net income rose 62% to $35.9 million in 2020. In the first quarter of 2021, its non-GAAP net income rose another 15% to $9.6 million.</p><p><blockquote>按GAAP计算，Twilio仍未盈利，但其非GAAP净利润在2020年增长了62%，达到3590万美元。2021年第一季度，其非GAAP净利润再增长15%至960万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts expect its revenue to rise 44% this year, but for its non-GAAP earnings to dip into the red again amid higher investments and rising A2P (application-to-person) fees, which are now charged by carriers whenever an app accesses an SMS network.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计其今年收入将增长44%，但由于投资增加和A2P（应用到个人）费用上涨，其非GAAP收益将再次出现亏损，现在每当应用程序访问短信网络时，运营商都会收取这些费用。</blockquote></p><p> That near-term outlook doesn't look great for a stock that trades at nearly 30 times this year's sales. However, I still think Twilio has great growth potential, and I'd definitely buy its stock at a lower price.</p><p><blockquote>对于一只交易价格是今年销售额近30倍的股票来说，近期前景看起来并不乐观。不过，我仍然认为Twilio具有巨大的增长潜力，我肯定会以较低的价格购买其股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. CrowdStrike</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.CrowdStrike</b></blockquote></p><p> CrowdStrike is a cybersecurity company that differs from its industry peers in one major way. Most cybersecurity companies install on-site appliances to support their services, which can be expensive to maintain and difficult to scale as an organization expands. CrowdStrike eliminates those appliances by offering its end-to-end security platform as a cloud-based service.</p><p><blockquote>CrowdStrike是一家网络安全公司，在一个主要方面不同于行业同行。大多数网络安全公司安装现场设备来支持其服务，这些设备的维护成本可能很高，并且随着组织的扩展难以扩展。CrowdStrike通过将其端到端安全平台作为基于云的服务来消除这些设备。</blockquote></p><p> CrowdStrike's growth clearly reflects its disruptive potential. Its revenue rose 82% to $874.4 million in fiscal 2021 (which ended this January), its number of subscription customers increased 82% to 9,896, and its net retention rate stayed above 120%.</p><p><blockquote>CrowdStrike的增长清楚地反映了其颠覆性的潜力。其2021财年（截至今年1月）收入增长82%至8.744亿美元，订阅客户数量增长82%至9,896人，净留存率保持在120%以上。</blockquote></p><p> In the first quarter of fiscal 2022, its revenue rose 70% year over year to $302.8 million, its subscriber base expanded 82% year over year to 11,420, and it kept its retention rate above 120%.</p><p><blockquote>2022财年第一季度，其收入同比增长70%至3.028亿美元，用户群同比增长82%至11,420人，留存率保持在120%以上。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> CrowdStrike also turned profitable on a non-GAAP basis in 2021, with a net profit of $62.6 million. Its non-GAAP net income rose more than fivefold year over year to $23.3 million in the first quarter of 2022.</p><p><blockquote>CrowdStrike也在2021年实现了非GAAP盈利，净利润为6260万美元。2022年第一季度，其非GAAP净利润同比增长五倍多，达到2330万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Those&nbsp;numbers are impressive, but CrowdStrike still trades at about 350 times forward earnings and more than 40 times this year's sales. Therefore, this is another stock I won't buy unless the market crashes.</p><p><blockquote>这些数字令人印象深刻，但CrowdStrike的市盈率仍约为350倍，是今年销售额的40多倍。因此，这是另一只我不会买的股票，除非市场崩盘。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Expensive Tech Stocks to Buy in the Next Market Crash<blockquote>下一次市场崩盘时值得买入的3只昂贵科技股</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Expensive Tech Stocks to Buy in the Next Market Crash<blockquote>下一次市场崩盘时值得买入的3只昂贵科技股</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-01 21:28</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Many high-growth tech stocks have seen price pullbacks over the past few months, due to concerns about higher bond yields, inflation, and decelerating growth for companies that benefited from the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>由于担心债券收益率上升、通货膨胀以及受益于疫情的公司增长放缓，许多高增长科技股在过去几个月出现了价格回调。</blockquote></p><p> That sell-off created some buying opportunities -- but some of the sector's pricier names merely pulled back slightly, held onto their gains, or even rallied. That relative strength is admirable, but it's a bit frustrating for investors who don't want to pay the wrong price for the right company.</p><p><blockquote>这次抛售创造了一些买入机会，但该行业一些价格较高的股票只是小幅回调，保持涨幅，甚至上涨。这种相对实力令人钦佩，但对于那些不想为合适的公司支付错误价格的投资者来说，这有点令人沮丧。</blockquote></p><p> That's why I'm making a shopping list of expensive tech stocks which I'd eagerly buy during the next market crash. Let's take a look at three of those companies:<b>Snowflake</b>(NYSE:SNOW),<b>Twilio</b>(NYSE:TWLO), and&nbsp;<b>CrowdStrike</b>(NASDAQ:CRWD).</p><p><blockquote>这就是为什么我列出了一份昂贵科技股的购物清单，这些股票是我在下一次市场崩盘时急切购买的。让我们来看看其中三家公司：<b>雪花</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：SNOW），<b>Twilio</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：TWLO），以及<b>CrowdStrike</b>（纳斯达克：CRWD）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fde232ce39d9cd52a01fd6ec018cae53\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Snowflake</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.雪花</b></blockquote></p><p> Snowflake was one of the hottest tech IPOs of 2020, thanks to its jaw-dropping growth rates and big investments from&nbsp;<b>Berkshire Hathaway</b>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<b>salesforce.com</b>.</p><p><blockquote>Snowflake是2020年最热门的科技IPO之一，这要归功于其令人瞠目结舌的增长率和来自<b>伯克希尔哈撒韦</b>和<b>salesforce.com</b>.</blockquote></p><p> Snowflake'scloud-baseddata warehouse pulls all of a company's data onto a single platform, where it can then be fed into third-party data visualization apps. Its service breaks down the silos between different departments and computing platforms, which makes it easier for large companies to make data-driven decisions.</p><p><blockquote>Snowflake基于云的数据仓库将公司的所有数据拉到一个平台上，然后可以将其输入第三方数据可视化应用程序。它的服务打破了不同部门和计算平台之间的孤岛，使大公司更容易做出数据驱动的决策。</blockquote></p><p> Snowflake's number of customers jumped 73% to 4,139 in fiscal 2021 (which ended this January), including 186 of the Fortune 500 companies. Its revenue surged 124% to $592 million, as its net retention rate -- which gauges its year-over-year revenue growth per existing customer -- hit 165%.</p><p><blockquote>Snowflake的客户数量在2021财年（截至今年1月）跃升73%至4,139家，其中包括186家财富500强公司。其收入飙升124%，达到5.92亿美元，净保留率（衡量每个现有客户的收入同比增长）达到165%。</blockquote></p><p> That growth continued in the first quarter of 2022. Its revenue rose 110% year over year to $228.9 million, its number of customers increased 67% to 4,532, and it achieved a net retention rate of 168%.</p><p><blockquote>这种增长在2022年第一季度仍在继续。其收入同比增长110%至2.289亿美元，客户数量增长67%至4,532人，净保留率达到168%。</blockquote></p><p> But Snowflake isn't profitable yet. ItsGAAPnet loss widened from $348.5 million in fiscal 2020 to $539.1 million in fiscal 2021, and<i>more than doubled</i>from $93.6 million to $203.2 million in the first quarter of 2022. It's also unprofitable on a non-GAAP basis, which excludes its stock-based compensation expenses.</p><p><blockquote>但Snowflake尚未盈利。其GAAP净亏损从2020财年的3.485亿美元扩大至2021财年的5.391亿美元，并且<i>翻了一倍多</i>2022年第一季度从9360万美元增至2.032亿美元。在非公认会计准则的基础上，它也是无利可图的，这不包括其股票薪酬费用。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts expect Snowflake's revenue to rise 88% this year, with a narrower loss. However, its stock still trades at 65 times this year's sales -- which indicates there's still far too much growth baked into the stock. But if Snowflake gets cut in half in a crash, I'd considerstarting a big position.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计Snowflake今年的收入将增长88%，亏损将收窄。然而，其股价仍是今年销售额的65倍，这表明该股仍有太多增长。但如果雪花在崩盘中被切成两半，我会考虑建立一个大头寸。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Twilio</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.Twilio</b></blockquote></p><p> Twilio's cloud platform processes text messages, calls, and videos within apps. For example, it helps&nbsp;<b>Lyft</b>'s passengers contact their drivers, and&nbsp;<b>Airbnb</b>'s guests reach their hosts.</p><p><blockquote>Twilio的云平台在应用程序中处理短信、评级和视频。例如，它有助于<b>Lyft</b>的乘客联系他们的司机，并且<b>爱彼迎</b>的客人到达他们的主人。</blockquote></p><p> In the past, developers built those tools from scratch, which was generally time-consuming, buggy, and difficult to scale. However, developers can now outsource those features to Twilio's cloud service by simply adding a few lines of code to their apps.</p><p><blockquote>过去，开发人员从头开始构建这些工具，这通常很耗时、有缺陷且难以扩展。然而，开发人员现在只需在他们的应用程序中添加几行代码，就可以将这些功能外包给Twilio的云服务。</blockquote></p><p> Twilio's revenue rose 55% to $1.76 billion in 2020. Its net expansion rate, which is comparable to Snowflake's net retention rate, reached 137%. In the first quarter of 2021, its revenue jumped 62% year over year to $590 million as it integrated its recent purchase of the customer data firm Segment.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，Twilio的收入增长了55%，达到17.6亿美元。其净扩张率与Snowflake的净留存率相当，达到了137%。2021年第一季度，由于整合了最近收购的客户数据公司部门，其收入同比增长62%至5.9亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Twilio remains unprofitable on a GAAP basis, but its non-GAAP net income rose 62% to $35.9 million in 2020. In the first quarter of 2021, its non-GAAP net income rose another 15% to $9.6 million.</p><p><blockquote>按GAAP计算，Twilio仍未盈利，但其非GAAP净利润在2020年增长了62%，达到3590万美元。2021年第一季度，其非GAAP净利润再增长15%至960万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts expect its revenue to rise 44% this year, but for its non-GAAP earnings to dip into the red again amid higher investments and rising A2P (application-to-person) fees, which are now charged by carriers whenever an app accesses an SMS network.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计其今年收入将增长44%，但由于投资增加和A2P（应用到个人）费用上涨，其非GAAP收益将再次出现亏损，现在每当应用程序访问短信网络时，运营商都会收取这些费用。</blockquote></p><p> That near-term outlook doesn't look great for a stock that trades at nearly 30 times this year's sales. However, I still think Twilio has great growth potential, and I'd definitely buy its stock at a lower price.</p><p><blockquote>对于一只交易价格是今年销售额近30倍的股票来说，近期前景看起来并不乐观。不过，我仍然认为Twilio具有巨大的增长潜力，我肯定会以较低的价格购买其股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. CrowdStrike</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.CrowdStrike</b></blockquote></p><p> CrowdStrike is a cybersecurity company that differs from its industry peers in one major way. Most cybersecurity companies install on-site appliances to support their services, which can be expensive to maintain and difficult to scale as an organization expands. CrowdStrike eliminates those appliances by offering its end-to-end security platform as a cloud-based service.</p><p><blockquote>CrowdStrike是一家网络安全公司，在一个主要方面不同于行业同行。大多数网络安全公司安装现场设备来支持其服务，这些设备的维护成本可能很高，并且随着组织的扩展难以扩展。CrowdStrike通过将其端到端安全平台作为基于云的服务来消除这些设备。</blockquote></p><p> CrowdStrike's growth clearly reflects its disruptive potential. Its revenue rose 82% to $874.4 million in fiscal 2021 (which ended this January), its number of subscription customers increased 82% to 9,896, and its net retention rate stayed above 120%.</p><p><blockquote>CrowdStrike的增长清楚地反映了其颠覆性的潜力。其2021财年（截至今年1月）收入增长82%至8.744亿美元，订阅客户数量增长82%至9,896人，净留存率保持在120%以上。</blockquote></p><p> In the first quarter of fiscal 2022, its revenue rose 70% year over year to $302.8 million, its subscriber base expanded 82% year over year to 11,420, and it kept its retention rate above 120%.</p><p><blockquote>2022财年第一季度，其收入同比增长70%至3.028亿美元，用户群同比增长82%至11,420人，留存率保持在120%以上。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> CrowdStrike also turned profitable on a non-GAAP basis in 2021, with a net profit of $62.6 million. Its non-GAAP net income rose more than fivefold year over year to $23.3 million in the first quarter of 2022.</p><p><blockquote>CrowdStrike也在2021年实现了非GAAP盈利，净利润为6260万美元。2022年第一季度，其非GAAP净利润同比增长五倍多，达到2330万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Those&nbsp;numbers are impressive, but CrowdStrike still trades at about 350 times forward earnings and more than 40 times this year's sales. Therefore, this is another stock I won't buy unless the market crashes.</p><p><blockquote>这些数字令人印象深刻，但CrowdStrike的市盈率仍约为350倍，是今年销售额的40多倍。因此，这是另一只我不会买的股票，除非市场崩盘。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/01/expensive-tech-stocks-to-buy-in-next-market-crash/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TWLO":"Twilio Inc","SNOW":"Snowflake","CRWD":"CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/01/expensive-tech-stocks-to-buy-in-next-market-crash/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199212665","content_text":"Many high-growth tech stocks have seen price pullbacks over the past few months, due to concerns about higher bond yields, inflation, and decelerating growth for companies that benefited from the pandemic.\nThat sell-off created some buying opportunities -- but some of the sector's pricier names merely pulled back slightly, held onto their gains, or even rallied. That relative strength is admirable, but it's a bit frustrating for investors who don't want to pay the wrong price for the right company.\nThat's why I'm making a shopping list of expensive tech stocks which I'd eagerly buy during the next market crash. Let's take a look at three of those companies:Snowflake(NYSE:SNOW),Twilio(NYSE:TWLO), and CrowdStrike(NASDAQ:CRWD).\nIMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.\n1. Snowflake\nSnowflake was one of the hottest tech IPOs of 2020, thanks to its jaw-dropping growth rates and big investments from Berkshire Hathaway and salesforce.com.\nSnowflake'scloud-baseddata warehouse pulls all of a company's data onto a single platform, where it can then be fed into third-party data visualization apps. Its service breaks down the silos between different departments and computing platforms, which makes it easier for large companies to make data-driven decisions.\nSnowflake's number of customers jumped 73% to 4,139 in fiscal 2021 (which ended this January), including 186 of the Fortune 500 companies. Its revenue surged 124% to $592 million, as its net retention rate -- which gauges its year-over-year revenue growth per existing customer -- hit 165%.\nThat growth continued in the first quarter of 2022. Its revenue rose 110% year over year to $228.9 million, its number of customers increased 67% to 4,532, and it achieved a net retention rate of 168%.\nBut Snowflake isn't profitable yet. ItsGAAPnet loss widened from $348.5 million in fiscal 2020 to $539.1 million in fiscal 2021, andmore than doubledfrom $93.6 million to $203.2 million in the first quarter of 2022. It's also unprofitable on a non-GAAP basis, which excludes its stock-based compensation expenses.\nAnalysts expect Snowflake's revenue to rise 88% this year, with a narrower loss. However, its stock still trades at 65 times this year's sales -- which indicates there's still far too much growth baked into the stock. But if Snowflake gets cut in half in a crash, I'd considerstarting a big position.\n2. Twilio\nTwilio's cloud platform processes text messages, calls, and videos within apps. For example, it helps Lyft's passengers contact their drivers, and Airbnb's guests reach their hosts.\nIn the past, developers built those tools from scratch, which was generally time-consuming, buggy, and difficult to scale. However, developers can now outsource those features to Twilio's cloud service by simply adding a few lines of code to their apps.\nTwilio's revenue rose 55% to $1.76 billion in 2020. Its net expansion rate, which is comparable to Snowflake's net retention rate, reached 137%. In the first quarter of 2021, its revenue jumped 62% year over year to $590 million as it integrated its recent purchase of the customer data firm Segment.\nTwilio remains unprofitable on a GAAP basis, but its non-GAAP net income rose 62% to $35.9 million in 2020. In the first quarter of 2021, its non-GAAP net income rose another 15% to $9.6 million.\nAnalysts expect its revenue to rise 44% this year, but for its non-GAAP earnings to dip into the red again amid higher investments and rising A2P (application-to-person) fees, which are now charged by carriers whenever an app accesses an SMS network.\nThat near-term outlook doesn't look great for a stock that trades at nearly 30 times this year's sales. However, I still think Twilio has great growth potential, and I'd definitely buy its stock at a lower price.\n3. CrowdStrike\nCrowdStrike is a cybersecurity company that differs from its industry peers in one major way. Most cybersecurity companies install on-site appliances to support their services, which can be expensive to maintain and difficult to scale as an organization expands. CrowdStrike eliminates those appliances by offering its end-to-end security platform as a cloud-based service.\nCrowdStrike's growth clearly reflects its disruptive potential. Its revenue rose 82% to $874.4 million in fiscal 2021 (which ended this January), its number of subscription customers increased 82% to 9,896, and its net retention rate stayed above 120%.\nIn the first quarter of fiscal 2022, its revenue rose 70% year over year to $302.8 million, its subscriber base expanded 82% year over year to 11,420, and it kept its retention rate above 120%.\nCrowdStrike also turned profitable on a non-GAAP basis in 2021, with a net profit of $62.6 million. Its non-GAAP net income rose more than fivefold year over year to $23.3 million in the first quarter of 2022.\nThose numbers are impressive, but CrowdStrike still trades at about 350 times forward earnings and more than 40 times this year's sales. Therefore, this is another stock I won't buy unless the market crashes.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TWLO":0.9,"SNOW":0.9,"CRWD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":202,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":182281460,"gmtCreate":1623577580550,"gmtModify":1634031466315,"author":{"id":"3584416898370318","authorId":"3584416898370318","name":"Yt64","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9824cc246c21cbb20e1583ad744abef8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584416898370318","idStr":"3584416898370318"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment","listText":"Comment","text":"Comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/182281460","repostId":"2142204074","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":360,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}