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Kmj121

Kmj121

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2021-07-25

no

Will NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks<blockquote>蔚来股票会追随特斯拉的脚步吗？这两只电动汽车股票之间需要考虑什么</blockquote>

2021-07-24

leek

Tencent was ordered to remove the exclusive copyright of online music<blockquote>腾讯控股被命令删除在线音乐的独家版权</blockquote>

2021-07-22

ok

Intel Reports Earnings Thursday. Here’s What to Expect.<blockquote>英特尔周四公布财报。这是可以期待的。</blockquote>

2021-06-25

up

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-24

I up

What the Growing Ascendance of Electric Vehicles Means for Oil and Gas Stocks<blockquote>电动汽车的日益崛起对石油和天然气股意味着什么</blockquote>

2021-06-16

$SOS Limited(SOS)$Gg

2021-06-15

$BlackBerry(BB)$why bb keep sleeping one

2021-05-28

$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$及时上车

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What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks<blockquote>蔚来股票会追随特斯拉的脚步吗？这两只电动汽车股票之间需要考虑什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112927800","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Let's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.NIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.NIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.Both companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV p","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Let's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.</li>  <li>NIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.</li>  <li>NIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f749c70c8a2af3e18d5f6cecc72bfbb\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"704\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>ipopba/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>让我们来看看今天的蔚来与特斯拉相比如何，蔚来的独特卖点，以及两家公司的相似之处。</li><li>蔚来是一个高增长的选择，相对于特斯拉的估值，它似乎并不太昂贵。</li><li>然而，蔚来并不是一只低风险股票，它可能并不是每个人的好选择。投资者还应该考虑蔚来与传统汽车公司的估值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ipopba/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO, Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading EV players, and has, through an attractive brand and its unique BaaS offering, attracted a lot of interest from consumers and investors. Today, however, the company is still way smaller than Tesla (TSLA), which is currently leading the global EV market. NIO is focused on its home market right now, which was true when Tesla was a smaller company as well, but NIO will try to grab market share in overseas markets as well. Shares are pricing in a lot of growth already, but if NIO can replicate Tesla's success, that could be more than justified.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来公司（蔚来）是中国领先的电动汽车制造商之一，通过其有吸引力的品牌和独特的BaaS产品吸引了消费者和投资者的极大兴趣。然而，如今，该公司仍然比目前引领全球电动汽车市场的特斯拉（TSLA）小得多。蔚来目前专注于国内市场，当特斯拉还是一家较小的公司时也是如此，但蔚来也将试图在海外市场抢占市场份额。股价已经反映了很大的增长，但如果蔚来能够复制特斯拉的成功，这可能是非常合理的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO And TSLA Stock Prices</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来和特斯拉股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Both companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV pureplays rise rapidly. The combination of growing market share for EVs, accommodating policies such as subsidies for EV purchases, and massive monetary stimulus let shares of NIO and TSLA rise rapidly. NIO is up 245% over the last year, while TSLA is up 101% over the same time. Both companies are currently trading below their all-time highs, however, which were hit in early 2021 before market sentiment for EV pureplays cooled to some degree.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，两家公司都受益于人们对电动汽车日益增长的兴趣，这一趋势导致大多数纯电动汽车公司的股价迅速上涨。电动汽车市场份额不断增长、电动汽车购买补贴等宽松政策以及大规模货币刺激措施相结合，让蔚来和特斯拉的股价迅速上涨。蔚来去年上涨了245%，而特斯拉同期上涨了101%。然而，两家公司目前的交易价格均低于2021年初创下的历史高点，随后纯电动汽车的市场情绪在一定程度上降温。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ff5ce865807df85283775d2293b41af\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Taking a quick look at analyst price targets, we see that Tesla is trading almost perfectly in line with the consensus, whereas NIO trades about 30% below the analyst target. If the analyst community is right, then NIO is a substantially better investment right here, as Tesla is not expected to see its shares rise meaningfully over the next year, whereas NIO has significant upside to the analyst price target.</p><p><blockquote>快速浏览一下分析师的目标价，我们发现特斯拉的交易价格几乎完全符合共识，而蔚来的交易价格比分析师目标低约30%。如果分析师界是正确的，那么蔚来是一项更好的投资，因为预计特斯拉的股价明年不会大幅上涨，而蔚来的股价较分析师目标价有显着上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO Similar To Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来和特斯拉相似吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that question depends on what you focus on. There are similarities between the two companies, but there are also differences. One could thus say that, in some ways, the two are similar, but in others, they are not. Let's look at a couple of things:</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案取决于你关注的是什么。两家公司有相似之处，但也有不同之处。因此，人们可以说，在某些方面，两者是相似的，但在另一些方面，它们不是。让我们看几件事：</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Both companies are focused on the EV space, although Tesla has, over the years, been building out a couple of other businesses as well, such as energy storage. Most of Tesla's revenues are generated through selling electric vehicles, which is also how NIO operates. Both companies are focused on the premium segment of EVs, selling higher-priced vehicles that compete with brands such as BMW, Mercedes, and Lexus. Both companies offer a small range of different vehicles, in Tesla's case those are the well-known S, X, 3, and Y, whereas NIO offers a sedan (ET7), and three SUVs (EC6, ES6, ES8). Despite the fact that NIO is a way smaller company today, the model lineups of the two companies do thus not differ too much.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都专注于电动汽车领域，尽管特斯拉多年来也在发展其他一些业务，例如储能。特斯拉的大部分收入来自销售电动汽车，这也是蔚来的运营方式。两家公司都专注于电动汽车的高端市场，销售与宝马、梅赛德斯和雷克萨斯等品牌竞争的高价汽车。两家公司都提供少量不同的车辆，特斯拉是著名的S、X、3和Y，而蔚来则提供一款轿车(ET7)和三款SUV(EC6、ES6、ES8)。尽管蔚来如今是一家规模较小的公司，但两家公司的车型阵容并没有太大差异。</blockquote></p><p> Both companies offer some type of charging infrastructure to their customers, in Tesla's case, that's the Supercharger network, where Tesla owners can charge their cars with up to 250kW, depending on what version of Supercharger is installed. NIO is following a different approach, offering a battery-as-a-service solution to its customers. NIO owners can get their battery switched out to a fully-charged battery at NIO's stations, a process that takes a couple of minutes and is thus significantly quicker compared to the regular EV charging offered by Tesla and other EV players. BaaS thus has advantages when it comes to the time it takes for a charge/swap, but it should be noted that Tesla's Superchargers are way more common around the world compared to NIO's battery-swapping stations. Rolling out that feature in additional markets will require large capital expenditures, but NIO's offering is a unique selling point compared to what all other EV players, including Tesla, are offering. It remains to be seen whether that will ultimately pay off, but this could become a major advantage for NIO as competition in the EV space is heating up.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都向客户提供某种类型的充电基础设施，就特斯拉而言，这就是Supercharger网络，特斯拉车主可以根据安装的Supercharger版本为汽车充电高达250kW。蔚来正在采取不同的方法，为客户提供电池即服务解决方案。蔚来车主可以在蔚来的充电站将电池更换为充满电的电池，这一过程需要几分钟，因此与特斯拉和其他电动汽车厂商提供的常规电动汽车充电相比要快得多。因此，BaaS在充电/交换所需时间方面具有优势，但应该指出的是，与蔚来的电池交换站相比，特斯拉的超级充电站在世界各地更为常见。在其他市场推出该功能将需要大量资本支出，但与包括特斯拉在内的所有其他电动汽车厂商相比，蔚来的产品是一个独特的卖点。这最终是否会得到回报还有待观察，但随着电动汽车领域的竞争加剧，这可能成为蔚来的一大优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Size, growth, and valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>规模、增长和估值</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The two companies differ significantly in size, both when it comes to revenues and vehicle sales, as well as when it comes to the market value of the two companies. NIO has delivered22,000 vehicles in Q2, up 112% year over year, for an annual pace of around 90,000 vehicles. Tesla, meanwhile, has delivered 201,000 vehicles during Q2, up from 103,000 vehicles delivered during Q2 2020. This is strong growth on a year-over-year basis, although slightly below 100%, and thus below the growth rate that NIO is generating for now.</p><p><blockquote>这两家公司的规模差异很大，无论是在收入和汽车销量方面，还是在两家公司的市值方面。蔚来第二季度交付了22,000辆汽车，同比增长112%，年增长率约为90,000辆。与此同时，特斯拉在第二季度交付了201,000辆汽车，高于2020年第二季度的103,000辆汽车。这是一个强劲的同比增长，尽管略低于100%，因此低于蔚来目前的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla delivers around 9x as many vehicles compared to NIO per quarter, when we look at the market capitalizations of the two companies, we see that the ratio is almost exactly the same, as Tesla's market cap of $640 billion is ~9x as high as that of NIO, at $72 billion. At similar growth rates, that would make perfect sense, but it looks like NIO might be the better deal for now, as it trades at a comparable valuation while generating better growth. This will be especially true in the coming quarters, where Tesla's growth is expected to slow down:</p><p><blockquote>与蔚来相比，特斯拉每季度交付的汽车数量约为9倍，当我们查看两家公司的市值时，我们发现这一比例几乎完全相同，因为特斯拉6400亿美元的市值约为9倍。蔚来的市值为720亿美元。在类似的增长率下，这是完全有道理的，但目前看来蔚来可能是更好的交易，因为它的估值相当，同时产生更好的增长。在未来几个季度尤其如此，预计特斯拉的增长将放缓：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a986ea65130206f99961a46ce6cfed55\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Tesla is forecasted to grow its revenue from $49 billion in 2021 to $83 billion in 2023, for an annual growth rate of 30%. NIO, meanwhile, is expected to see its revenue explode upwards from $5.4 billion to $12.8 billion between 2021 and 2023, for an annual growth rate of 54%. NIO is thus expected to grow way faster than Tesla over the next two years, on a relative basis. This shouldn't be a surprise, to be honest, as the law of large numbers dictates that maintaining massive growth rates becomes increasingly hard for a company the bigger it gets, and Tesla seems to have hit that point by now -- adding 50%+ a year to its top line will not be possible forever. This isn't even necessarily Tesla's fault, in fact, many high-quality growth companies have experienced the same. But investors should still consider this important fact -- Tesla's growth in coming years will be less exciting compared to what we have seen in the past, and peers, such as NIO, are growing faster.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉的收入预计将从2021年的490亿美元增长到2023年的830亿美元，年增长率为30%。与此同时，蔚来的收入预计将在2021年至2023年间从54亿美元猛增至128亿美元，年增长率为54%。因此，相对而言，预计未来两年蔚来的增长速度将远远快于特斯拉。老实说，这并不奇怪，因为大数定律表明，对于一家规模越大的公司来说，保持大幅增长率就变得越来越困难，而特斯拉现在似乎已经达到了这一点——每年增加50%以上的收入将永远不可能。这甚至不一定是特斯拉的错，事实上，许多优质成长型公司都经历过同样的事情。但投资者仍应考虑这一重要事实——与我们过去看到的相比，特斯拉未来几年的增长将不那么令人兴奋，而蔚来等同行的增长速度更快。</blockquote></p><p> The same holds true when we take a longer-term view. Revenue estimates for 2025 rest at$22.6 billionfor NIO, up another 80% from the 2023 estimate, and up 320% from what analysts are forecasting for 2021. Tesla, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate revenues of $122.5 billion in 2025 -- a large number, but up by a comparatively weak 48% from 2023, and up by a total of 150% versus 2021. Between 2021 and 2025, NIO will thus 4x its revenue, while Tesla will 2.5x its revenue in the same time span -- a meaningful difference that should, all else equal, allow for a premium valuation for NIO, in the same way Tesla deserves a premium valuation versus legacy players such as Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY).</p><p><blockquote>当我们从长远来看时，情况也是如此。蔚来2025年的收入预期为226亿美元，比2023年的预期再增长80%，比分析师对2021年的预测增长320%。与此同时，特斯拉预计2025年的收入将达到1,225亿美元，这是一个很大的数字，但比2023年增长了48%，比2021年总共增长了150%。因此，在2021年至2025年间，蔚来的收入将增加4倍，而特斯拉的收入将在同一时期增加2.5倍——在其他条件相同的情况下，这是一个有意义的差异，应该允许蔚来获得溢价估值，就像特斯拉一样。与大众汽车（OTCPK：VWAGY）等传统企业相比，它值得获得溢价估值。</blockquote></p><p> Looking at revenue estimates for 2025 relative to how the two companies are valued today, we see that NIO trades at 3.2x 2025 sales, while the 2025 sales multiple for Tesla is 5.2. For a long-term oriented investor, NIO thus seems like the better value today, thanks to the fact that it is trading at a significantly lower sales multiple when we take a look into the future. This does not necessarily mean that NIO is cheap, however, as even a 3.2x 2025 sales multiple is relatively high compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. NIO is looking less expensive than Tesla, however, even if its shares are not cheap on an absolute basis.</p><p><blockquote>相对于两家公司目前的估值来看2025年的收入预期，我们发现蔚来的市盈率为2025年销售额的3.2倍，而特斯拉2025年的销售额倍数为5.2倍。因此，对于长期投资者来说，蔚来今天似乎更有价值，因为当我们展望未来时，它的销售倍数要低得多。然而，这并不一定意味着蔚来很便宜，因为与传统汽车公司的估值相比，即使2025年3.2倍的销售倍数也相对较高。然而，蔚来看起来比特斯拉便宜，尽管其股价绝对并不便宜。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Can NIO Be Worth As Much As Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来能和特斯拉一样值钱吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that depends on what time frame you are looking at. Today, NIO is significantly smaller than Tesla and thus rightfully trades at a way smaller market cap. It should also be noted that there is no guarantee that Tesla's shares are a great example of how an EV company should be valued -- it is, at least, possible that its shares are significantly&nbsp;overpriced&nbsp;today, I personally believe that as well (Note that some will argue that shares are&nbsp;underpriced, which is also among the possibilities, although I do not hold that belief personally).</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案取决于你所关注的时间框架。如今，蔚来的规模明显小于特斯拉，因此其市值也相应地小得多。还应该指出的是，不能保证特斯拉的股票是电动汽车公司应该如何估值的一个很好的例子——至少，它的股票今天有可能被严重高估，我个人也相信这一点（请注意，有些人会认为股票定价过低，这也是一种可能性，尽管我个人并不持有这种信念）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> When we do, for a moment, assume that Tesla is correctly valued today and that EV companies do deserve a market cap in the $600 billion range when they sell about 800,000 vehicles a year, then NIO could eventually hit that as well, although not in the near term. NIO will sell about 90,000 vehicles this year, and that amount should grow to about 400,000 in 2025. If NIO were to grow its sales by 15% a year beyond that point, it could sell around 800,000 cars in 2030, or 9 years from now. If one wants to assume faster growth, the 800,000 vehicles a year line could also be crossed before 2030, e.g. in 2028 or 2029. If we do go with 2030 for now, then NIO could, at a similar deliveries-to-market capitalization ratio to Tesla, be valued at $600+ billion in 2030. In other words, NIO could be worth as much as Tesla (today) in nine years, when we assume that current growth projections are realistic and that a Tesla-like valuation is appropriate. Those are two major ifs, of course, and especially the second point is far from certain, I believe. I personally would not be too surprised to see Tesla's valuation compress, and thus NIO could trade well below the $600 billion market cap level in 2030, even if it continues to grow meaningfully. It is also possible that NIO's growth disappoints and that current projections are too bullish, although I think that NIO is well-positioned for growth thanks to its unique BaaS model and its strong brand that is especially well-recognized in its home market.</p><p><blockquote>当我们暂时假设特斯拉今天的估值是正确的，并且电动汽车公司每年销售约80万辆汽车时确实应该获得6000亿美元的市值时，那么蔚来最终也可能达到这一目标，尽管不是在短期内。蔚来今年将销售约9万辆汽车，2025年这一数字将增长至约40万辆。如果蔚来的销量在此之后每年增长15%，那么到2030年（即9年后），它可能会售出约80万辆汽车。如果想要更快的增长，也可以在2030年之前跨越每年80万辆汽车的界限，例如2028年或2029年。如果我们现在确实选择2030年，那么按照与特斯拉类似的交付量与市值比率，蔚来到2030年的估值可能会超过6000亿美元。换句话说，如果我们假设当前的增长预测是现实的，并且类似特斯拉的估值是合适的，那么九年后蔚来的价值可能会与特斯拉（今天）一样高。当然，这是两个主要的如果，尤其是第二点，我认为还远未确定。我个人不会对特斯拉的估值压缩感到太惊讶，因此蔚来的市值在2030年可能远低于6000亿美元的水平，即使它继续大幅增长。蔚来的增长也有可能令人失望，目前的预测过于乐观，尽管我认为蔚来凭借其独特的BaaS模式和在国内市场特别受认可的强大品牌，处于良好的增长地位。</blockquote></p><p> It should also be noted that Tesla's market cap in 2030 could be very different from $600 billion, thus even in case NIO hits that level, it is not at all guaranteed that the two companies will have a similar market cap. Tesla might be valued at a way higher valuation by then, e.g. if the ARK model is right (something I personally think is unlikely). To answer the above question, one could thus say that NIO might be worth hundreds of billions of dollars, like Tesla, in 8-10 years, but that is not at all guaranteed. And even if that were to happen, Tesla might be worth significantly more by then.</p><p><blockquote>还应该指出的是，特斯拉2030年的市值可能与6000亿美元有很大不同，因此即使蔚来达到这一水平，也不能保证两家公司的市值会相似。到那时，特斯拉的估值可能会高得多，例如如果方舟模型是正确的（我个人认为不太可能）。为了回答上述问题，人们可以说，蔚来可能在8-10年内像特斯拉一样价值数千亿美元，但这根本不能保证。即使这种情况发生，到那时特斯拉的价值也可能会高得多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO A Good Stock To Buy Or Sell Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来现在是买入或卖出的好股票吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> When considering NIO as an investment, it doesn't really matter all that much whether it will become as large or highly valued as Tesla eventually. Instead, investors should ask themselves what total returns they can expect over the next couple of years, and whether those expected returns are high enough relative to the risks in NIO's business model. Regarding those risks, one should mention the fact that the company isn't profitable yet, which means that NIO is dependent on cash on its balance sheet for growth investments. On top of that, competition in the EV space is growing, and market share battles could pressure margins in coming years, although NIO seems relatively well-positioned thanks to its battery-swapping, which is, I believe, a strong USP. Last but not least, the company's dependence on its home market China is a potential risk that should be kept in mind, although it should also be noted that, for now, it seems like the Chinese government is very accommodating to Chinese EV companies.</p><p><blockquote>当将蔚来视为一项投资时，它最终是否会变得像特斯拉一样庞大或估值很高并不重要。相反，投资者应该问自己，未来几年他们可以预期的总回报是多少，以及相对于蔚来商业模式的风险，这些预期回报是否足够高。关于这些风险，应该提到的事实是，该公司尚未盈利，这意味着蔚来依赖其资产负债表上的现金进行增长投资。最重要的是，电动汽车领域的竞争正在加剧，市场份额之争可能会在未来几年给利润率带来压力，尽管蔚来似乎由于其电池交换而处于相对有利的地位，我认为这是一个强大的USP。最后但并非最不重要的是，该公司对中国本土市场的依赖是一个应该牢记的潜在风险，尽管还应该指出的是，目前中国政府似乎对中国电动汽车公司非常包容。</blockquote></p><p> One could argue that valuations across the whole EV industry are too high, relative to how legacy auto companies are valued. Even those legacy players with attractive EV offerings such as Volkswagen or Ford trade at huge discounts compared to EV pureplays. But if one wants to invest in an EV pureplay, NIO doesn't seem like a bad choice. The company combines a strong brand, a unique BaaS offering, high growth rates, and shares trade at a discount compared to how the EV king Tesla is valued. At a little above 3x 2025 revenue, NIO does not seem overly expensive relative to other EV pureplays, although this still represents a premium versus legacy players, of course. If NIO manages to execute well and continues to roll out new models that are well-received by consumers, its shares could have significant upside potential in the long run. If EV stocks ever become an out-of-favor investment, NIO stock also could have considerable downside, however, this thus is not a low-risk pick. Depending on your risk tolerance, NIO could still be of value if you want a high-growth EV pureplay.</p><p><blockquote>有人可能会说，相对于传统汽车公司的估值，整个电动汽车行业的估值过高。与纯电动汽车相比，即使是大众汽车或福特等拥有有吸引力的电动汽车产品的传统企业，其交易也有巨大的折扣。但如果你想投资纯电动汽车，蔚来似乎是一个不错的选择。该公司结合了强大的品牌、独特的BaaS产品、高增长率，并且与电动汽车之王特斯拉的估值相比，股票交易价格有折扣。与其他纯电动汽车公司相比，蔚来2025年收入略高于3倍，似乎并不算太贵，当然，与传统公司相比，这仍然代表着溢价。如果蔚来能够表现良好并继续推出深受消费者欢迎的新车型，从长远来看，其股价可能具有巨大的上涨潜力。如果电动汽车股票成为不受欢迎的投资，蔚来股票也可能有相当大的下跌空间，然而，这并不是一个低风险的选择。根据您的风险承受能力，如果您想要高增长的纯电动汽车，蔚来仍然可能具有价值。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks<blockquote>蔚来股票会追随特斯拉的脚步吗？这两只电动汽车股票之间需要考虑什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks<blockquote>蔚来股票会追随特斯拉的脚步吗？这两只电动汽车股票之间需要考虑什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-24 09:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Let's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.</li>  <li>NIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.</li>  <li>NIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f749c70c8a2af3e18d5f6cecc72bfbb\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"704\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>ipopba/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>让我们来看看今天的蔚来与特斯拉相比如何，蔚来的独特卖点，以及两家公司的相似之处。</li><li>蔚来是一个高增长的选择，相对于特斯拉的估值，它似乎并不太昂贵。</li><li>然而，蔚来并不是一只低风险股票，它可能并不是每个人的好选择。投资者还应该考虑蔚来与传统汽车公司的估值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ipopba/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO, Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading EV players, and has, through an attractive brand and its unique BaaS offering, attracted a lot of interest from consumers and investors. Today, however, the company is still way smaller than Tesla (TSLA), which is currently leading the global EV market. NIO is focused on its home market right now, which was true when Tesla was a smaller company as well, but NIO will try to grab market share in overseas markets as well. Shares are pricing in a lot of growth already, but if NIO can replicate Tesla's success, that could be more than justified.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来公司（蔚来）是中国领先的电动汽车制造商之一，通过其有吸引力的品牌和独特的BaaS产品吸引了消费者和投资者的极大兴趣。然而，如今，该公司仍然比目前引领全球电动汽车市场的特斯拉（TSLA）小得多。蔚来目前专注于国内市场，当特斯拉还是一家较小的公司时也是如此，但蔚来也将试图在海外市场抢占市场份额。股价已经反映了很大的增长，但如果蔚来能够复制特斯拉的成功，这可能是非常合理的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO And TSLA Stock Prices</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来和特斯拉股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Both companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV pureplays rise rapidly. The combination of growing market share for EVs, accommodating policies such as subsidies for EV purchases, and massive monetary stimulus let shares of NIO and TSLA rise rapidly. NIO is up 245% over the last year, while TSLA is up 101% over the same time. Both companies are currently trading below their all-time highs, however, which were hit in early 2021 before market sentiment for EV pureplays cooled to some degree.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，两家公司都受益于人们对电动汽车日益增长的兴趣，这一趋势导致大多数纯电动汽车公司的股价迅速上涨。电动汽车市场份额不断增长、电动汽车购买补贴等宽松政策以及大规模货币刺激措施相结合，让蔚来和特斯拉的股价迅速上涨。蔚来去年上涨了245%，而特斯拉同期上涨了101%。然而，两家公司目前的交易价格均低于2021年初创下的历史高点，随后纯电动汽车的市场情绪在一定程度上降温。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ff5ce865807df85283775d2293b41af\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Taking a quick look at analyst price targets, we see that Tesla is trading almost perfectly in line with the consensus, whereas NIO trades about 30% below the analyst target. If the analyst community is right, then NIO is a substantially better investment right here, as Tesla is not expected to see its shares rise meaningfully over the next year, whereas NIO has significant upside to the analyst price target.</p><p><blockquote>快速浏览一下分析师的目标价，我们发现特斯拉的交易价格几乎完全符合共识，而蔚来的交易价格比分析师目标低约30%。如果分析师界是正确的，那么蔚来是一项更好的投资，因为预计特斯拉的股价明年不会大幅上涨，而蔚来的股价较分析师目标价有显着上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO Similar To Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来和特斯拉相似吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that question depends on what you focus on. There are similarities between the two companies, but there are also differences. One could thus say that, in some ways, the two are similar, but in others, they are not. Let's look at a couple of things:</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案取决于你关注的是什么。两家公司有相似之处，但也有不同之处。因此，人们可以说，在某些方面，两者是相似的，但在另一些方面，它们不是。让我们看几件事：</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Both companies are focused on the EV space, although Tesla has, over the years, been building out a couple of other businesses as well, such as energy storage. Most of Tesla's revenues are generated through selling electric vehicles, which is also how NIO operates. Both companies are focused on the premium segment of EVs, selling higher-priced vehicles that compete with brands such as BMW, Mercedes, and Lexus. Both companies offer a small range of different vehicles, in Tesla's case those are the well-known S, X, 3, and Y, whereas NIO offers a sedan (ET7), and three SUVs (EC6, ES6, ES8). Despite the fact that NIO is a way smaller company today, the model lineups of the two companies do thus not differ too much.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都专注于电动汽车领域，尽管特斯拉多年来也在发展其他一些业务，例如储能。特斯拉的大部分收入来自销售电动汽车，这也是蔚来的运营方式。两家公司都专注于电动汽车的高端市场，销售与宝马、梅赛德斯和雷克萨斯等品牌竞争的高价汽车。两家公司都提供少量不同的车辆，特斯拉是著名的S、X、3和Y，而蔚来则提供一款轿车(ET7)和三款SUV(EC6、ES6、ES8)。尽管蔚来如今是一家规模较小的公司，但两家公司的车型阵容并没有太大差异。</blockquote></p><p> Both companies offer some type of charging infrastructure to their customers, in Tesla's case, that's the Supercharger network, where Tesla owners can charge their cars with up to 250kW, depending on what version of Supercharger is installed. NIO is following a different approach, offering a battery-as-a-service solution to its customers. NIO owners can get their battery switched out to a fully-charged battery at NIO's stations, a process that takes a couple of minutes and is thus significantly quicker compared to the regular EV charging offered by Tesla and other EV players. BaaS thus has advantages when it comes to the time it takes for a charge/swap, but it should be noted that Tesla's Superchargers are way more common around the world compared to NIO's battery-swapping stations. Rolling out that feature in additional markets will require large capital expenditures, but NIO's offering is a unique selling point compared to what all other EV players, including Tesla, are offering. It remains to be seen whether that will ultimately pay off, but this could become a major advantage for NIO as competition in the EV space is heating up.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都向客户提供某种类型的充电基础设施，就特斯拉而言，这就是Supercharger网络，特斯拉车主可以根据安装的Supercharger版本为汽车充电高达250kW。蔚来正在采取不同的方法，为客户提供电池即服务解决方案。蔚来车主可以在蔚来的充电站将电池更换为充满电的电池，这一过程需要几分钟，因此与特斯拉和其他电动汽车厂商提供的常规电动汽车充电相比要快得多。因此，BaaS在充电/交换所需时间方面具有优势，但应该指出的是，与蔚来的电池交换站相比，特斯拉的超级充电站在世界各地更为常见。在其他市场推出该功能将需要大量资本支出，但与包括特斯拉在内的所有其他电动汽车厂商相比，蔚来的产品是一个独特的卖点。这最终是否会得到回报还有待观察，但随着电动汽车领域的竞争加剧，这可能成为蔚来的一大优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Size, growth, and valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>规模、增长和估值</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The two companies differ significantly in size, both when it comes to revenues and vehicle sales, as well as when it comes to the market value of the two companies. NIO has delivered22,000 vehicles in Q2, up 112% year over year, for an annual pace of around 90,000 vehicles. Tesla, meanwhile, has delivered 201,000 vehicles during Q2, up from 103,000 vehicles delivered during Q2 2020. This is strong growth on a year-over-year basis, although slightly below 100%, and thus below the growth rate that NIO is generating for now.</p><p><blockquote>这两家公司的规模差异很大，无论是在收入和汽车销量方面，还是在两家公司的市值方面。蔚来第二季度交付了22,000辆汽车，同比增长112%，年增长率约为90,000辆。与此同时，特斯拉在第二季度交付了201,000辆汽车，高于2020年第二季度的103,000辆汽车。这是一个强劲的同比增长，尽管略低于100%，因此低于蔚来目前的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla delivers around 9x as many vehicles compared to NIO per quarter, when we look at the market capitalizations of the two companies, we see that the ratio is almost exactly the same, as Tesla's market cap of $640 billion is ~9x as high as that of NIO, at $72 billion. At similar growth rates, that would make perfect sense, but it looks like NIO might be the better deal for now, as it trades at a comparable valuation while generating better growth. This will be especially true in the coming quarters, where Tesla's growth is expected to slow down:</p><p><blockquote>与蔚来相比，特斯拉每季度交付的汽车数量约为9倍，当我们查看两家公司的市值时，我们发现这一比例几乎完全相同，因为特斯拉6400亿美元的市值约为9倍。蔚来的市值为720亿美元。在类似的增长率下，这是完全有道理的，但目前看来蔚来可能是更好的交易，因为它的估值相当，同时产生更好的增长。在未来几个季度尤其如此，预计特斯拉的增长将放缓：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a986ea65130206f99961a46ce6cfed55\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Tesla is forecasted to grow its revenue from $49 billion in 2021 to $83 billion in 2023, for an annual growth rate of 30%. NIO, meanwhile, is expected to see its revenue explode upwards from $5.4 billion to $12.8 billion between 2021 and 2023, for an annual growth rate of 54%. NIO is thus expected to grow way faster than Tesla over the next two years, on a relative basis. This shouldn't be a surprise, to be honest, as the law of large numbers dictates that maintaining massive growth rates becomes increasingly hard for a company the bigger it gets, and Tesla seems to have hit that point by now -- adding 50%+ a year to its top line will not be possible forever. This isn't even necessarily Tesla's fault, in fact, many high-quality growth companies have experienced the same. But investors should still consider this important fact -- Tesla's growth in coming years will be less exciting compared to what we have seen in the past, and peers, such as NIO, are growing faster.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉的收入预计将从2021年的490亿美元增长到2023年的830亿美元，年增长率为30%。与此同时，蔚来的收入预计将在2021年至2023年间从54亿美元猛增至128亿美元，年增长率为54%。因此，相对而言，预计未来两年蔚来的增长速度将远远快于特斯拉。老实说，这并不奇怪，因为大数定律表明，对于一家规模越大的公司来说，保持大幅增长率就变得越来越困难，而特斯拉现在似乎已经达到了这一点——每年增加50%以上的收入将永远不可能。这甚至不一定是特斯拉的错，事实上，许多优质成长型公司都经历过同样的事情。但投资者仍应考虑这一重要事实——与我们过去看到的相比，特斯拉未来几年的增长将不那么令人兴奋，而蔚来等同行的增长速度更快。</blockquote></p><p> The same holds true when we take a longer-term view. Revenue estimates for 2025 rest at$22.6 billionfor NIO, up another 80% from the 2023 estimate, and up 320% from what analysts are forecasting for 2021. Tesla, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate revenues of $122.5 billion in 2025 -- a large number, but up by a comparatively weak 48% from 2023, and up by a total of 150% versus 2021. Between 2021 and 2025, NIO will thus 4x its revenue, while Tesla will 2.5x its revenue in the same time span -- a meaningful difference that should, all else equal, allow for a premium valuation for NIO, in the same way Tesla deserves a premium valuation versus legacy players such as Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY).</p><p><blockquote>当我们从长远来看时，情况也是如此。蔚来2025年的收入预期为226亿美元，比2023年的预期再增长80%，比分析师对2021年的预测增长320%。与此同时，特斯拉预计2025年的收入将达到1,225亿美元，这是一个很大的数字，但比2023年增长了48%，比2021年总共增长了150%。因此，在2021年至2025年间，蔚来的收入将增加4倍，而特斯拉的收入将在同一时期增加2.5倍——在其他条件相同的情况下，这是一个有意义的差异，应该允许蔚来获得溢价估值，就像特斯拉一样。与大众汽车（OTCPK：VWAGY）等传统企业相比，它值得获得溢价估值。</blockquote></p><p> Looking at revenue estimates for 2025 relative to how the two companies are valued today, we see that NIO trades at 3.2x 2025 sales, while the 2025 sales multiple for Tesla is 5.2. For a long-term oriented investor, NIO thus seems like the better value today, thanks to the fact that it is trading at a significantly lower sales multiple when we take a look into the future. This does not necessarily mean that NIO is cheap, however, as even a 3.2x 2025 sales multiple is relatively high compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. NIO is looking less expensive than Tesla, however, even if its shares are not cheap on an absolute basis.</p><p><blockquote>相对于两家公司目前的估值来看2025年的收入预期，我们发现蔚来的市盈率为2025年销售额的3.2倍，而特斯拉2025年的销售额倍数为5.2倍。因此，对于长期投资者来说，蔚来今天似乎更有价值，因为当我们展望未来时，它的销售倍数要低得多。然而，这并不一定意味着蔚来很便宜，因为与传统汽车公司的估值相比，即使2025年3.2倍的销售倍数也相对较高。然而，蔚来看起来比特斯拉便宜，尽管其股价绝对并不便宜。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Can NIO Be Worth As Much As Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来能和特斯拉一样值钱吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that depends on what time frame you are looking at. Today, NIO is significantly smaller than Tesla and thus rightfully trades at a way smaller market cap. It should also be noted that there is no guarantee that Tesla's shares are a great example of how an EV company should be valued -- it is, at least, possible that its shares are significantly&nbsp;overpriced&nbsp;today, I personally believe that as well (Note that some will argue that shares are&nbsp;underpriced, which is also among the possibilities, although I do not hold that belief personally).</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案取决于你所关注的时间框架。如今，蔚来的规模明显小于特斯拉，因此其市值也相应地小得多。还应该指出的是，不能保证特斯拉的股票是电动汽车公司应该如何估值的一个很好的例子——至少，它的股票今天有可能被严重高估，我个人也相信这一点（请注意，有些人会认为股票定价过低，这也是一种可能性，尽管我个人并不持有这种信念）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> When we do, for a moment, assume that Tesla is correctly valued today and that EV companies do deserve a market cap in the $600 billion range when they sell about 800,000 vehicles a year, then NIO could eventually hit that as well, although not in the near term. NIO will sell about 90,000 vehicles this year, and that amount should grow to about 400,000 in 2025. If NIO were to grow its sales by 15% a year beyond that point, it could sell around 800,000 cars in 2030, or 9 years from now. If one wants to assume faster growth, the 800,000 vehicles a year line could also be crossed before 2030, e.g. in 2028 or 2029. If we do go with 2030 for now, then NIO could, at a similar deliveries-to-market capitalization ratio to Tesla, be valued at $600+ billion in 2030. In other words, NIO could be worth as much as Tesla (today) in nine years, when we assume that current growth projections are realistic and that a Tesla-like valuation is appropriate. Those are two major ifs, of course, and especially the second point is far from certain, I believe. I personally would not be too surprised to see Tesla's valuation compress, and thus NIO could trade well below the $600 billion market cap level in 2030, even if it continues to grow meaningfully. It is also possible that NIO's growth disappoints and that current projections are too bullish, although I think that NIO is well-positioned for growth thanks to its unique BaaS model and its strong brand that is especially well-recognized in its home market.</p><p><blockquote>当我们暂时假设特斯拉今天的估值是正确的，并且电动汽车公司每年销售约80万辆汽车时确实应该获得6000亿美元的市值时，那么蔚来最终也可能达到这一目标，尽管不是在短期内。蔚来今年将销售约9万辆汽车，2025年这一数字将增长至约40万辆。如果蔚来的销量在此之后每年增长15%，那么到2030年（即9年后），它可能会售出约80万辆汽车。如果想要更快的增长，也可以在2030年之前跨越每年80万辆汽车的界限，例如2028年或2029年。如果我们现在确实选择2030年，那么按照与特斯拉类似的交付量与市值比率，蔚来到2030年的估值可能会超过6000亿美元。换句话说，如果我们假设当前的增长预测是现实的，并且类似特斯拉的估值是合适的，那么九年后蔚来的价值可能会与特斯拉（今天）一样高。当然，这是两个主要的如果，尤其是第二点，我认为还远未确定。我个人不会对特斯拉的估值压缩感到太惊讶，因此蔚来的市值在2030年可能远低于6000亿美元的水平，即使它继续大幅增长。蔚来的增长也有可能令人失望，目前的预测过于乐观，尽管我认为蔚来凭借其独特的BaaS模式和在国内市场特别受认可的强大品牌，处于良好的增长地位。</blockquote></p><p> It should also be noted that Tesla's market cap in 2030 could be very different from $600 billion, thus even in case NIO hits that level, it is not at all guaranteed that the two companies will have a similar market cap. Tesla might be valued at a way higher valuation by then, e.g. if the ARK model is right (something I personally think is unlikely). To answer the above question, one could thus say that NIO might be worth hundreds of billions of dollars, like Tesla, in 8-10 years, but that is not at all guaranteed. And even if that were to happen, Tesla might be worth significantly more by then.</p><p><blockquote>还应该指出的是，特斯拉2030年的市值可能与6000亿美元有很大不同，因此即使蔚来达到这一水平，也不能保证两家公司的市值会相似。到那时，特斯拉的估值可能会高得多，例如如果方舟模型是正确的（我个人认为不太可能）。为了回答上述问题，人们可以说，蔚来可能在8-10年内像特斯拉一样价值数千亿美元，但这根本不能保证。即使这种情况发生，到那时特斯拉的价值也可能会高得多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO A Good Stock To Buy Or Sell Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来现在是买入或卖出的好股票吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> When considering NIO as an investment, it doesn't really matter all that much whether it will become as large or highly valued as Tesla eventually. Instead, investors should ask themselves what total returns they can expect over the next couple of years, and whether those expected returns are high enough relative to the risks in NIO's business model. Regarding those risks, one should mention the fact that the company isn't profitable yet, which means that NIO is dependent on cash on its balance sheet for growth investments. On top of that, competition in the EV space is growing, and market share battles could pressure margins in coming years, although NIO seems relatively well-positioned thanks to its battery-swapping, which is, I believe, a strong USP. Last but not least, the company's dependence on its home market China is a potential risk that should be kept in mind, although it should also be noted that, for now, it seems like the Chinese government is very accommodating to Chinese EV companies.</p><p><blockquote>当将蔚来视为一项投资时，它最终是否会变得像特斯拉一样庞大或估值很高并不重要。相反，投资者应该问自己，未来几年他们可以预期的总回报是多少，以及相对于蔚来商业模式的风险，这些预期回报是否足够高。关于这些风险，应该提到的事实是，该公司尚未盈利，这意味着蔚来依赖其资产负债表上的现金进行增长投资。最重要的是，电动汽车领域的竞争正在加剧，市场份额之争可能会在未来几年给利润率带来压力，尽管蔚来似乎由于其电池交换而处于相对有利的地位，我认为这是一个强大的USP。最后但并非最不重要的是，该公司对中国本土市场的依赖是一个应该牢记的潜在风险，尽管还应该指出的是，目前中国政府似乎对中国电动汽车公司非常包容。</blockquote></p><p> One could argue that valuations across the whole EV industry are too high, relative to how legacy auto companies are valued. Even those legacy players with attractive EV offerings such as Volkswagen or Ford trade at huge discounts compared to EV pureplays. But if one wants to invest in an EV pureplay, NIO doesn't seem like a bad choice. The company combines a strong brand, a unique BaaS offering, high growth rates, and shares trade at a discount compared to how the EV king Tesla is valued. At a little above 3x 2025 revenue, NIO does not seem overly expensive relative to other EV pureplays, although this still represents a premium versus legacy players, of course. If NIO manages to execute well and continues to roll out new models that are well-received by consumers, its shares could have significant upside potential in the long run. If EV stocks ever become an out-of-favor investment, NIO stock also could have considerable downside, however, this thus is not a low-risk pick. Depending on your risk tolerance, NIO could still be of value if you want a high-growth EV pureplay.</p><p><blockquote>有人可能会说，相对于传统汽车公司的估值，整个电动汽车行业的估值过高。与纯电动汽车相比，即使是大众汽车或福特等拥有有吸引力的电动汽车产品的传统企业，其交易也有巨大的折扣。但如果你想投资纯电动汽车，蔚来似乎是一个不错的选择。该公司结合了强大的品牌、独特的BaaS产品、高增长率，并且与电动汽车之王特斯拉的估值相比，股票交易价格有折扣。与其他纯电动汽车公司相比，蔚来2025年收入略高于3倍，似乎并不算太贵，当然，与传统公司相比，这仍然代表着溢价。如果蔚来能够表现良好并继续推出深受消费者欢迎的新车型，从长远来看，其股价可能具有巨大的上涨潜力。如果电动汽车股票成为不受欢迎的投资，蔚来股票也可能有相当大的下跌空间，然而，这并不是一个低风险的选择。根据您的风险承受能力，如果您想要高增长的纯电动汽车，蔚来仍然可能具有价值。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440950-will-nio-stock-follow-tesla-what-to-consider-ev-stocks\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440950-will-nio-stock-follow-tesla-what-to-consider-ev-stocks","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112927800","content_text":"Summary\n\nLet's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.\nNIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.\nNIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.\n\nipopba/iStock via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nNIO, Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading EV players, and has, through an attractive brand and its unique BaaS offering, attracted a lot of interest from consumers and investors. Today, however, the company is still way smaller than Tesla (TSLA), which is currently leading the global EV market. NIO is focused on its home market right now, which was true when Tesla was a smaller company as well, but NIO will try to grab market share in overseas markets as well. Shares are pricing in a lot of growth already, but if NIO can replicate Tesla's success, that could be more than justified.\nNIO And TSLA Stock Prices\nBoth companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV pureplays rise rapidly. The combination of growing market share for EVs, accommodating policies such as subsidies for EV purchases, and massive monetary stimulus let shares of NIO and TSLA rise rapidly. NIO is up 245% over the last year, while TSLA is up 101% over the same time. Both companies are currently trading below their all-time highs, however, which were hit in early 2021 before market sentiment for EV pureplays cooled to some degree.\nData by YCharts\nTaking a quick look at analyst price targets, we see that Tesla is trading almost perfectly in line with the consensus, whereas NIO trades about 30% below the analyst target. If the analyst community is right, then NIO is a substantially better investment right here, as Tesla is not expected to see its shares rise meaningfully over the next year, whereas NIO has significant upside to the analyst price target.\nIs NIO Similar To Tesla?\nThe answer to that question depends on what you focus on. There are similarities between the two companies, but there are also differences. One could thus say that, in some ways, the two are similar, but in others, they are not. Let's look at a couple of things:\nBusiness Model\nBoth companies are focused on the EV space, although Tesla has, over the years, been building out a couple of other businesses as well, such as energy storage. Most of Tesla's revenues are generated through selling electric vehicles, which is also how NIO operates. Both companies are focused on the premium segment of EVs, selling higher-priced vehicles that compete with brands such as BMW, Mercedes, and Lexus. Both companies offer a small range of different vehicles, in Tesla's case those are the well-known S, X, 3, and Y, whereas NIO offers a sedan (ET7), and three SUVs (EC6, ES6, ES8). Despite the fact that NIO is a way smaller company today, the model lineups of the two companies do thus not differ too much.\nBoth companies offer some type of charging infrastructure to their customers, in Tesla's case, that's the Supercharger network, where Tesla owners can charge their cars with up to 250kW, depending on what version of Supercharger is installed. NIO is following a different approach, offering a battery-as-a-service solution to its customers. NIO owners can get their battery switched out to a fully-charged battery at NIO's stations, a process that takes a couple of minutes and is thus significantly quicker compared to the regular EV charging offered by Tesla and other EV players. BaaS thus has advantages when it comes to the time it takes for a charge/swap, but it should be noted that Tesla's Superchargers are way more common around the world compared to NIO's battery-swapping stations. Rolling out that feature in additional markets will require large capital expenditures, but NIO's offering is a unique selling point compared to what all other EV players, including Tesla, are offering. It remains to be seen whether that will ultimately pay off, but this could become a major advantage for NIO as competition in the EV space is heating up.\nSize, growth, and valuation\nThe two companies differ significantly in size, both when it comes to revenues and vehicle sales, as well as when it comes to the market value of the two companies. NIO has delivered22,000 vehicles in Q2, up 112% year over year, for an annual pace of around 90,000 vehicles. Tesla, meanwhile, has delivered 201,000 vehicles during Q2, up from 103,000 vehicles delivered during Q2 2020. This is strong growth on a year-over-year basis, although slightly below 100%, and thus below the growth rate that NIO is generating for now.\nTesla delivers around 9x as many vehicles compared to NIO per quarter, when we look at the market capitalizations of the two companies, we see that the ratio is almost exactly the same, as Tesla's market cap of $640 billion is ~9x as high as that of NIO, at $72 billion. At similar growth rates, that would make perfect sense, but it looks like NIO might be the better deal for now, as it trades at a comparable valuation while generating better growth. This will be especially true in the coming quarters, where Tesla's growth is expected to slow down:\nData by YCharts\nTesla is forecasted to grow its revenue from $49 billion in 2021 to $83 billion in 2023, for an annual growth rate of 30%. NIO, meanwhile, is expected to see its revenue explode upwards from $5.4 billion to $12.8 billion between 2021 and 2023, for an annual growth rate of 54%. NIO is thus expected to grow way faster than Tesla over the next two years, on a relative basis. This shouldn't be a surprise, to be honest, as the law of large numbers dictates that maintaining massive growth rates becomes increasingly hard for a company the bigger it gets, and Tesla seems to have hit that point by now -- adding 50%+ a year to its top line will not be possible forever. This isn't even necessarily Tesla's fault, in fact, many high-quality growth companies have experienced the same. But investors should still consider this important fact -- Tesla's growth in coming years will be less exciting compared to what we have seen in the past, and peers, such as NIO, are growing faster.\nThe same holds true when we take a longer-term view. Revenue estimates for 2025 rest at$22.6 billionfor NIO, up another 80% from the 2023 estimate, and up 320% from what analysts are forecasting for 2021. Tesla, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate revenues of $122.5 billion in 2025 -- a large number, but up by a comparatively weak 48% from 2023, and up by a total of 150% versus 2021. Between 2021 and 2025, NIO will thus 4x its revenue, while Tesla will 2.5x its revenue in the same time span -- a meaningful difference that should, all else equal, allow for a premium valuation for NIO, in the same way Tesla deserves a premium valuation versus legacy players such as Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY).\nLooking at revenue estimates for 2025 relative to how the two companies are valued today, we see that NIO trades at 3.2x 2025 sales, while the 2025 sales multiple for Tesla is 5.2. For a long-term oriented investor, NIO thus seems like the better value today, thanks to the fact that it is trading at a significantly lower sales multiple when we take a look into the future. This does not necessarily mean that NIO is cheap, however, as even a 3.2x 2025 sales multiple is relatively high compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. NIO is looking less expensive than Tesla, however, even if its shares are not cheap on an absolute basis.\nCan NIO Be Worth As Much As Tesla?\nThe answer to that depends on what time frame you are looking at. Today, NIO is significantly smaller than Tesla and thus rightfully trades at a way smaller market cap. It should also be noted that there is no guarantee that Tesla's shares are a great example of how an EV company should be valued -- it is, at least, possible that its shares are significantly overpriced today, I personally believe that as well (Note that some will argue that shares are underpriced, which is also among the possibilities, although I do not hold that belief personally).\nWhen we do, for a moment, assume that Tesla is correctly valued today and that EV companies do deserve a market cap in the $600 billion range when they sell about 800,000 vehicles a year, then NIO could eventually hit that as well, although not in the near term. NIO will sell about 90,000 vehicles this year, and that amount should grow to about 400,000 in 2025. If NIO were to grow its sales by 15% a year beyond that point, it could sell around 800,000 cars in 2030, or 9 years from now. If one wants to assume faster growth, the 800,000 vehicles a year line could also be crossed before 2030, e.g. in 2028 or 2029. If we do go with 2030 for now, then NIO could, at a similar deliveries-to-market capitalization ratio to Tesla, be valued at $600+ billion in 2030. In other words, NIO could be worth as much as Tesla (today) in nine years, when we assume that current growth projections are realistic and that a Tesla-like valuation is appropriate. Those are two major ifs, of course, and especially the second point is far from certain, I believe. I personally would not be too surprised to see Tesla's valuation compress, and thus NIO could trade well below the $600 billion market cap level in 2030, even if it continues to grow meaningfully. It is also possible that NIO's growth disappoints and that current projections are too bullish, although I think that NIO is well-positioned for growth thanks to its unique BaaS model and its strong brand that is especially well-recognized in its home market.\nIt should also be noted that Tesla's market cap in 2030 could be very different from $600 billion, thus even in case NIO hits that level, it is not at all guaranteed that the two companies will have a similar market cap. Tesla might be valued at a way higher valuation by then, e.g. if the ARK model is right (something I personally think is unlikely). To answer the above question, one could thus say that NIO might be worth hundreds of billions of dollars, like Tesla, in 8-10 years, but that is not at all guaranteed. And even if that were to happen, Tesla might be worth significantly more by then.\nIs NIO A Good Stock To Buy Or Sell Now?\nWhen considering NIO as an investment, it doesn't really matter all that much whether it will become as large or highly valued as Tesla eventually. Instead, investors should ask themselves what total returns they can expect over the next couple of years, and whether those expected returns are high enough relative to the risks in NIO's business model. Regarding those risks, one should mention the fact that the company isn't profitable yet, which means that NIO is dependent on cash on its balance sheet for growth investments. On top of that, competition in the EV space is growing, and market share battles could pressure margins in coming years, although NIO seems relatively well-positioned thanks to its battery-swapping, which is, I believe, a strong USP. Last but not least, the company's dependence on its home market China is a potential risk that should be kept in mind, although it should also be noted that, for now, it seems like the Chinese government is very accommodating to Chinese EV companies.\nOne could argue that valuations across the whole EV industry are too high, relative to how legacy auto companies are valued. Even those legacy players with attractive EV offerings such as Volkswagen or Ford trade at huge discounts compared to EV pureplays. But if one wants to invest in an EV pureplay, NIO doesn't seem like a bad choice. The company combines a strong brand, a unique BaaS offering, high growth rates, and shares trade at a discount compared to how the EV king Tesla is valued. At a little above 3x 2025 revenue, NIO does not seem overly expensive relative to other EV pureplays, although this still represents a premium versus legacy players, of course. If NIO manages to execute well and continues to roll out new models that are well-received by consumers, its shares could have significant upside potential in the long run. If EV stocks ever become an out-of-favor investment, NIO stock also could have considerable downside, however, this thus is not a low-risk pick. Depending on your risk tolerance, NIO could still be of value if you want a high-growth EV pureplay.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9,"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1311,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":174659928,"gmtCreate":1627096614864,"gmtModify":1633767996769,"author":{"id":"3583447705533959","authorId":"3583447705533959","name":"Kmj121","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c59f0eacf93cd197ec1e2105b1796413","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583447705533959","idStr":"3583447705533959"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"leek","listText":"leek","text":"leek","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/174659928","repostId":"1151500518","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1151500518","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1627092269,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1151500518?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-24 10:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tencent was ordered to remove the exclusive copyright of online music<blockquote>腾讯控股被命令删除在线音乐的独家版权</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151500518","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"The China market supervision administration made an administrative punishment decision according to ","content":"<p>The China market supervision administration made an administrative punishment decision according to law, ordering Tencent and its affiliated companies to take measures to restore the state of market competition, such as canceling the exclusive music copyright within 30 days, stopping the payment of copyright fees such as high prepayment, and not requiring the upstream copyright party to give conditions superior to its competitors without justified reasons. Tencent will report the performance of its obligations to the State Administration of market supervision every year within three years, and the State Administration of market supervision will strictly supervise its implementation according to law.</p><p><blockquote>市场监督管理总局依法作出行政处罚决定，责令腾讯控股及其关联公司采取措施，恢复市场竞争状态，如30日内取消独家音乐版权、停止支付高额预付款等版权费用、无正当理由不得要求上游版权方给予优于竞争对手的条件等。腾讯控股将在三年内每年向国家市场监管总局报告义务履行情况，国家市场监管总局将依法严格监督落实。</blockquote></p><p> This case is the first case in which necessary measures have been taken to restore the state of market competition for the illegal implementation of business concentration since the implementation of China's anti-monopoly law.</p><p><blockquote>本案是我国《反垄断法》实施以来，对违法实施经营者集中行为采取必要措施恢复市场竞争状态的第一起案件。</blockquote></p><p> Tencent responded that the company will seriously abide by the decision, strictly implement the regulatory requirements, operate in accordance with the law, earnestly fulfill its social responsibility and maintain benign competition in the market. Tencent will take full responsibility, formulate rectification measures and plans with Tencent music and other affiliated companies within the specified time limit, and complete them completely in accordance with the requirements of the punishment decision to ensure that the rectification is in place.</p><p><blockquote>腾讯控股回应称，公司将认真遵守《决定》，严格执行监管要求，依法经营，切实履行社会责任，维护市场良性竞争。腾讯控股将负全责，在规定时限内与腾讯控股音乐等关联公司制定整改措施和方案，按照处罚决定书要求全面完成，确保整改到位。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tencent was ordered to remove the exclusive copyright of online music<blockquote>腾讯控股被命令删除在线音乐的独家版权</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTencent was ordered to remove the exclusive copyright of online music<blockquote>腾讯控股被命令删除在线音乐的独家版权</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-24 10:04</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The China market supervision administration made an administrative punishment decision according to law, ordering Tencent and its affiliated companies to take measures to restore the state of market competition, such as canceling the exclusive music copyright within 30 days, stopping the payment of copyright fees such as high prepayment, and not requiring the upstream copyright party to give conditions superior to its competitors without justified reasons. Tencent will report the performance of its obligations to the State Administration of market supervision every year within three years, and the State Administration of market supervision will strictly supervise its implementation according to law.</p><p><blockquote>市场监督管理总局依法作出行政处罚决定，责令腾讯控股及其关联公司采取措施，恢复市场竞争状态，如30日内取消独家音乐版权、停止支付高额预付款等版权费用、无正当理由不得要求上游版权方给予优于竞争对手的条件等。腾讯控股将在三年内每年向国家市场监管总局报告义务履行情况，国家市场监管总局将依法严格监督落实。</blockquote></p><p> This case is the first case in which necessary measures have been taken to restore the state of market competition for the illegal implementation of business concentration since the implementation of China's anti-monopoly law.</p><p><blockquote>本案是我国《反垄断法》实施以来，对违法实施经营者集中行为采取必要措施恢复市场竞争状态的第一起案件。</blockquote></p><p> Tencent responded that the company will seriously abide by the decision, strictly implement the regulatory requirements, operate in accordance with the law, earnestly fulfill its social responsibility and maintain benign competition in the market. Tencent will take full responsibility, formulate rectification measures and plans with Tencent music and other affiliated companies within the specified time limit, and complete them completely in accordance with the requirements of the punishment decision to ensure that the rectification is in place.</p><p><blockquote>腾讯控股回应称，公司将认真遵守《决定》，严格执行监管要求，依法经营，切实履行社会责任，维护市场良性竞争。腾讯控股将负全责，在规定时限内与腾讯控股音乐等关联公司制定整改措施和方案，按照处罚决定书要求全面完成，确保整改到位。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"00700":"腾讯控股","TME":"腾讯音乐"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151500518","content_text":"The China market supervision administration made an administrative punishment decision according to law, ordering Tencent and its affiliated companies to take measures to restore the state of market competition, such as canceling the exclusive music copyright within 30 days, stopping the payment of copyright fees such as high prepayment, and not requiring the upstream copyright party to give conditions superior to its competitors without justified reasons. Tencent will report the performance of its obligations to the State Administration of market supervision every year within three years, and the State Administration of market supervision will strictly supervise its implementation according to law.\nThis case is the first case in which necessary measures have been taken to restore the state of market competition for the illegal implementation of business concentration since the implementation of China's anti-monopoly law.\nTencent responded that the company will seriously abide by the decision, strictly implement the regulatory requirements, operate in accordance with the law, earnestly fulfill its social responsibility and maintain benign competition in the market. Tencent will take full responsibility, formulate rectification measures and plans with Tencent music and other affiliated companies within the specified time limit, and complete them completely in accordance with the requirements of the punishment decision to ensure that the rectification is in place.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TME":0.9,"00700":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1574,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":176719983,"gmtCreate":1626915575342,"gmtModify":1633769803857,"author":{"id":"3583447705533959","authorId":"3583447705533959","name":"Kmj121","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c59f0eacf93cd197ec1e2105b1796413","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583447705533959","idStr":"3583447705533959"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/176719983","repostId":"1186011456","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1186011456","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626915117,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1186011456?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-22 08:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Intel Reports Earnings Thursday. Here’s What to Expect.<blockquote>英特尔周四公布财报。这是可以期待的。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1186011456","media":"Barrons","summary":"When Intel reports earnings Thursday after the closing bell, it’s going to have to put in some work to convince investors the past three months have gone well.Expectations for chip companies are already high heading into the June quarter, as investors are looking for a batch of earnings that beat estimates and bullish guidance, according to tech strategist Ted Mortonson. However, shares of Intel  13% during the second quarter as the benchmark PHLX Semiconductor index, or Sox, gained 1.7% But so ","content":"<p>When Intel reports earnings Thursday after the closing bell, it’s going to have to put in some work to convince investors the past three months have gone well.</p><p><blockquote>当英特尔周四收盘后公布财报时，它必须做一些工作来让投资者相信过去三个月进展顺利。</blockquote></p><p> Expectations for chip companies are already high heading into the June quarter, as investors are looking for a batch of earnings that beat estimates and bullish guidance, according to tech strategist Ted Mortonson. However, shares of Intel (ticker: INTC) 13% during the second quarter as the benchmark PHLX Semiconductor index, or Sox, gained 1.7% But so long as nothing like last year’s delay of its advanced manufacturing process happens, Intel can likely continue to ride the big demand around the world for chips through the end of the year.</p><p><blockquote>科技策略师特德·莫顿森(Ted Mortonson)表示，进入第二季度，对芯片公司的预期已经很高，因为投资者正在寻找一批超出预期的收益和看涨指引。然而，英特尔（股票代码：INTC）的股价在第二季度上涨了13%，基准PHLX半导体指数（Sox）上涨了1.7%，但只要不发生像去年先进制造工艺延迟那样的情况，英特尔就可能继续在年底前满足全球对芯片的巨大需求。</blockquote></p><p> Newly installed chief executive Pat Gelsinger has already started to make big changes during the second quarter, doubling down on the company’s manufacturing business for its own chips while at the same time expanding its scope by starting a contract manufacturing unit called Intel Foundry Services. He also instituted major personnel changes and restructured parts of the company’s operations.</p><p><blockquote>新任首席执行官帕特·基辛格(Pat Gelsinger)已经开始在第二季度做出重大改变，加倍加大公司自有芯片制造业务的力度，同时通过成立名为英特尔代工服务(Intel Foundry Services)的合同制造部门来扩大其范围。他还进行了重大人事变动并重组了公司的部分业务。</blockquote></p><p> Investors should parse Intel’s Thursday conference call with executives for clues about the company’s forthcoming strategy, including confirmation or details on the company’s talks for a $30 billion bid for U.S.-based semiconductor manufacturing company GlobalFoundries, which The Wall Street Journal reported last Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该分析英特尔周四与高管举行的电话会议，以寻找有关该公司即将推出的战略的线索，包括该公司以300亿美元收购美国半导体制造公司GlobalFoundries的谈判的确认或细节，《华尔街日报》上周四报道了这一消息。</blockquote></p><p> GlobalFoundries CEOTom Caulfieldappeared to curb expectations that a deal was in the works in an interview with Bloomberg Television late Monday. The Journal reported last Thursday that Global Foundries executives weren’t involved in the talks; the talks were between Intel and the Abu Dhabi government’s Mubadala Investment vehicle that owns GlobalFoundries. A person familiar with how Mubadala operates told Barron’‘s that keeping GlobalFoundries unaware of a potential deal with Intel would be typical of its behavior.</p><p><blockquote>周一晚间，格芯首席执行官汤姆·考尔菲尔德(Tom Caulfield)在接受彭博电视台采访时似乎抑制了人们对交易正在进行中的预期。《华尔街日报》上周四报道称，Global Foundries高管没有参与谈判；谈判是在英特尔和拥有GlobalFoundries的阿布扎比政府穆巴达拉投资工具之间进行的。一位熟悉穆巴达拉运作方式的人士告诉《巴伦周刊》，让格芯不知道与英特尔的潜在交易将是其典型行为。</blockquote></p><p> Overall, the consensus forecast for second-quarter adjusted earnings is $1.07 a share on revenue of $17.8 billion. Intel sold its memory business last year, which the company and investors often exclude from its revenue.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，第二季度调整后收益的普遍预测为每股1.07美元，营收为178亿美元。英特尔去年出售了内存业务，该公司和投资者经常将其排除在收入之外。</blockquote></p><p> For the second quarter, investors will be closely watching Intel’s data center business. At the moment, the consensus forecast for Intel’s second-quarter data-center revenue is a decrease of 17% to $5.9 billion, compared with the year-ago period. Still, it’s expected to rise sequentially, from revenue of $5.6 billion in the first quarter.</p><p><blockquote>第二季度，投资者将密切关注英特尔的数据中心业务。目前，市场普遍预测英特尔第二季度数据中心收入将比去年同期下降17%，至59亿美元。尽管如此，预计第一季度营收为56亿美元，环比仍将增长。</blockquote></p><p> Evercore analyst C.J. Muse wrote in a client note that data-center spending recovery, combined with growth in artificial intelligence and machine learning computing–tasks which are typically performed in data centers–could help boost Intel’s revenue for the segment above his outlook.</p><p><blockquote>Evercore分析师C.J.Muse在一份客户报告中写道，数据中心支出的复苏，加上人工智能和机器学习计算（通常在数据中心执行的任务）的增长，可能有助于将英特尔该领域的收入提高到高于他的预期。</blockquote></p><p> Though there are reports that the pandemic-spurred boom of personal computer sales has started to slow, Susquehanna Financial Group analystChristopher Rollandpredicted that Intel will likely achieve its guidance or perform slightly better based on his checks. At the moment, the consensus estimate for Intel’s PC segment is for second-quarter revenue growth of 4.9% to just under $10 billion.</p><p><blockquote>尽管有报道称，大流行刺激的个人电脑销售热潮已开始放缓，但萨斯奎哈纳金融集团分析师克里斯托弗·罗兰预测，根据他的检查，英特尔可能会实现其指导或表现略好。目前，英特尔PC部门的普遍预期是第二季度收入增长4.9%，略低于100亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Rolland also said that his team has uncovered modest supply constraints for PCs built around chips made by Intel rival Advanced Micro Devices (AMD). If that turns out to be true, it would benefit Intel’s second-quarter PC sales, Rolland said. AMD declined to comment, citing its quiet period ahead of earnings.</p><p><blockquote>魅兰还表示，他的团队发现，围绕英特尔竞争对手超微半导体（AMD）制造的芯片制造的个人电脑存在适度的供应限制。罗兰说，如果事实证明这是真的，这将有利于英特尔第二季度的个人电脑销售。AMD拒绝置评，理由是财报发布前的平静期。</blockquote></p><p> Of the analysts who cover Intel, 18 rate shares Buy, 16 have a Hold rating, and 10 rate it Sell. The average target price is $66.79, which implies a return of 21% from a recent price of $55.</p><p><blockquote>在研究英特尔的分析师中，18名分析师给予买入评级，16名分析师给予持有评级，10名分析师给予卖出评级。平均目标价为66.79美元，这意味着较近期55美元的价格有21%的回报。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Intel Reports Earnings Thursday. Here’s What to Expect.<blockquote>英特尔周四公布财报。这是可以期待的。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIntel Reports Earnings Thursday. Here’s What to Expect.<blockquote>英特尔周四公布财报。这是可以期待的。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-22 08:51</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>When Intel reports earnings Thursday after the closing bell, it’s going to have to put in some work to convince investors the past three months have gone well.</p><p><blockquote>当英特尔周四收盘后公布财报时，它必须做一些工作来让投资者相信过去三个月进展顺利。</blockquote></p><p> Expectations for chip companies are already high heading into the June quarter, as investors are looking for a batch of earnings that beat estimates and bullish guidance, according to tech strategist Ted Mortonson. However, shares of Intel (ticker: INTC) 13% during the second quarter as the benchmark PHLX Semiconductor index, or Sox, gained 1.7% But so long as nothing like last year’s delay of its advanced manufacturing process happens, Intel can likely continue to ride the big demand around the world for chips through the end of the year.</p><p><blockquote>科技策略师特德·莫顿森(Ted Mortonson)表示，进入第二季度，对芯片公司的预期已经很高，因为投资者正在寻找一批超出预期的收益和看涨指引。然而，英特尔（股票代码：INTC）的股价在第二季度上涨了13%，基准PHLX半导体指数（Sox）上涨了1.7%，但只要不发生像去年先进制造工艺延迟那样的情况，英特尔就可能继续在年底前满足全球对芯片的巨大需求。</blockquote></p><p> Newly installed chief executive Pat Gelsinger has already started to make big changes during the second quarter, doubling down on the company’s manufacturing business for its own chips while at the same time expanding its scope by starting a contract manufacturing unit called Intel Foundry Services. He also instituted major personnel changes and restructured parts of the company’s operations.</p><p><blockquote>新任首席执行官帕特·基辛格(Pat Gelsinger)已经开始在第二季度做出重大改变，加倍加大公司自有芯片制造业务的力度，同时通过成立名为英特尔代工服务(Intel Foundry Services)的合同制造部门来扩大其范围。他还进行了重大人事变动并重组了公司的部分业务。</blockquote></p><p> Investors should parse Intel’s Thursday conference call with executives for clues about the company’s forthcoming strategy, including confirmation or details on the company’s talks for a $30 billion bid for U.S.-based semiconductor manufacturing company GlobalFoundries, which The Wall Street Journal reported last Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该分析英特尔周四与高管举行的电话会议，以寻找有关该公司即将推出的战略的线索，包括该公司以300亿美元收购美国半导体制造公司GlobalFoundries的谈判的确认或细节，《华尔街日报》上周四报道了这一消息。</blockquote></p><p> GlobalFoundries CEOTom Caulfieldappeared to curb expectations that a deal was in the works in an interview with Bloomberg Television late Monday. The Journal reported last Thursday that Global Foundries executives weren’t involved in the talks; the talks were between Intel and the Abu Dhabi government’s Mubadala Investment vehicle that owns GlobalFoundries. A person familiar with how Mubadala operates told Barron’‘s that keeping GlobalFoundries unaware of a potential deal with Intel would be typical of its behavior.</p><p><blockquote>周一晚间，格芯首席执行官汤姆·考尔菲尔德(Tom Caulfield)在接受彭博电视台采访时似乎抑制了人们对交易正在进行中的预期。《华尔街日报》上周四报道称，Global Foundries高管没有参与谈判；谈判是在英特尔和拥有GlobalFoundries的阿布扎比政府穆巴达拉投资工具之间进行的。一位熟悉穆巴达拉运作方式的人士告诉《巴伦周刊》，让格芯不知道与英特尔的潜在交易将是其典型行为。</blockquote></p><p> Overall, the consensus forecast for second-quarter adjusted earnings is $1.07 a share on revenue of $17.8 billion. Intel sold its memory business last year, which the company and investors often exclude from its revenue.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，第二季度调整后收益的普遍预测为每股1.07美元，营收为178亿美元。英特尔去年出售了内存业务，该公司和投资者经常将其排除在收入之外。</blockquote></p><p> For the second quarter, investors will be closely watching Intel’s data center business. At the moment, the consensus forecast for Intel’s second-quarter data-center revenue is a decrease of 17% to $5.9 billion, compared with the year-ago period. Still, it’s expected to rise sequentially, from revenue of $5.6 billion in the first quarter.</p><p><blockquote>第二季度，投资者将密切关注英特尔的数据中心业务。目前，市场普遍预测英特尔第二季度数据中心收入将比去年同期下降17%，至59亿美元。尽管如此，预计第一季度营收为56亿美元，环比仍将增长。</blockquote></p><p> Evercore analyst C.J. Muse wrote in a client note that data-center spending recovery, combined with growth in artificial intelligence and machine learning computing–tasks which are typically performed in data centers–could help boost Intel’s revenue for the segment above his outlook.</p><p><blockquote>Evercore分析师C.J.Muse在一份客户报告中写道，数据中心支出的复苏，加上人工智能和机器学习计算（通常在数据中心执行的任务）的增长，可能有助于将英特尔该领域的收入提高到高于他的预期。</blockquote></p><p> Though there are reports that the pandemic-spurred boom of personal computer sales has started to slow, Susquehanna Financial Group analystChristopher Rollandpredicted that Intel will likely achieve its guidance or perform slightly better based on his checks. At the moment, the consensus estimate for Intel’s PC segment is for second-quarter revenue growth of 4.9% to just under $10 billion.</p><p><blockquote>尽管有报道称，大流行刺激的个人电脑销售热潮已开始放缓，但萨斯奎哈纳金融集团分析师克里斯托弗·罗兰预测，根据他的检查，英特尔可能会实现其指导或表现略好。目前，英特尔PC部门的普遍预期是第二季度收入增长4.9%，略低于100亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Rolland also said that his team has uncovered modest supply constraints for PCs built around chips made by Intel rival Advanced Micro Devices (AMD). If that turns out to be true, it would benefit Intel’s second-quarter PC sales, Rolland said. AMD declined to comment, citing its quiet period ahead of earnings.</p><p><blockquote>魅兰还表示，他的团队发现，围绕英特尔竞争对手超微半导体（AMD）制造的芯片制造的个人电脑存在适度的供应限制。罗兰说，如果事实证明这是真的，这将有利于英特尔第二季度的个人电脑销售。AMD拒绝置评，理由是财报发布前的平静期。</blockquote></p><p> Of the analysts who cover Intel, 18 rate shares Buy, 16 have a Hold rating, and 10 rate it Sell. The average target price is $66.79, which implies a return of 21% from a recent price of $55.</p><p><blockquote>在研究英特尔的分析师中，18名分析师给予买入评级，16名分析师给予持有评级，10名分析师给予卖出评级。平均目标价为66.79美元，这意味着较近期55美元的价格有21%的回报。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/intel-earnings-51626886116?siteid=yhoof2\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"INTC":"英特尔"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/intel-earnings-51626886116?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1186011456","content_text":"When Intel reports earnings Thursday after the closing bell, it’s going to have to put in some work to convince investors the past three months have gone well.\nExpectations for chip companies are already high heading into the June quarter, as investors are looking for a batch of earnings that beat estimates and bullish guidance, according to tech strategist Ted Mortonson. However, shares of Intel (ticker: INTC) 13% during the second quarter as the benchmark PHLX Semiconductor index, or Sox, gained 1.7% But so long as nothing like last year’s delay of its advanced manufacturing process happens, Intel can likely continue to ride the big demand around the world for chips through the end of the year.\nNewly installed chief executive Pat Gelsinger has already started to make big changes during the second quarter, doubling down on the company’s manufacturing business for its own chips while at the same time expanding its scope by starting a contract manufacturing unit called Intel Foundry Services. He also instituted major personnel changes and restructured parts of the company’s operations.\nInvestors should parse Intel’s Thursday conference call with executives for clues about the company’s forthcoming strategy, including confirmation or details on the company’s talks for a $30 billion bid for U.S.-based semiconductor manufacturing company GlobalFoundries, which The Wall Street Journal reported last Thursday.\nGlobalFoundries CEOTom Caulfieldappeared to curb expectations that a deal was in the works in an interview with Bloomberg Television late Monday. The Journal reported last Thursday that Global Foundries executives weren’t involved in the talks; the talks were between Intel and the Abu Dhabi government’s Mubadala Investment vehicle that owns GlobalFoundries. A person familiar with how Mubadala operates told Barron’‘s that keeping GlobalFoundries unaware of a potential deal with Intel would be typical of its behavior.\nOverall, the consensus forecast for second-quarter adjusted earnings is $1.07 a share on revenue of $17.8 billion. Intel sold its memory business last year, which the company and investors often exclude from its revenue.\nFor the second quarter, investors will be closely watching Intel’s data center business. At the moment, the consensus forecast for Intel’s second-quarter data-center revenue is a decrease of 17% to $5.9 billion, compared with the year-ago period. Still, it’s expected to rise sequentially, from revenue of $5.6 billion in the first quarter.\nEvercore analyst C.J. Muse wrote in a client note that data-center spending recovery, combined with growth in artificial intelligence and machine learning computing–tasks which are typically performed in data centers–could help boost Intel’s revenue for the segment above his outlook.\nThough there are reports that the pandemic-spurred boom of personal computer sales has started to slow, Susquehanna Financial Group analystChristopher Rollandpredicted that Intel will likely achieve its guidance or perform slightly better based on his checks. At the moment, the consensus estimate for Intel’s PC segment is for second-quarter revenue growth of 4.9% to just under $10 billion.\nRolland also said that his team has uncovered modest supply constraints for PCs built around chips made by Intel rival Advanced Micro Devices (AMD). If that turns out to be true, it would benefit Intel’s second-quarter PC sales, Rolland said. AMD declined to comment, citing its quiet period ahead of earnings.\nOf the analysts who cover Intel, 18 rate shares Buy, 16 have a Hold rating, and 10 rate it Sell. The average target price is $66.79, which implies a return of 21% from a recent price of $55.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"INTC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1138,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":122116775,"gmtCreate":1624603527297,"gmtModify":1633950633737,"author":{"id":"3583447705533959","authorId":"3583447705533959","name":"Kmj121","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c59f0eacf93cd197ec1e2105b1796413","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583447705533959","idStr":"3583447705533959"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"up","listText":"up","text":"up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/122116775","repostId":"2146274410","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1566,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":128283783,"gmtCreate":1624518524842,"gmtModify":1634004946847,"author":{"id":"3583447705533959","authorId":"3583447705533959","name":"Kmj121","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c59f0eacf93cd197ec1e2105b1796413","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583447705533959","idStr":"3583447705533959"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I up","listText":"I up","text":"I up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/128283783","repostId":"1170018171","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1170018171","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624518095,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1170018171?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-24 15:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What the Growing Ascendance of Electric Vehicles Means for Oil and Gas Stocks<blockquote>电动汽车的日益崛起对石油和天然气股意味着什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170018171","media":"The Street","summary":"As Tesla and other carmakers ramp up the number of EVs on the road, oil and gas companies are trying","content":"<p>  <b>As Tesla and other carmakers ramp up the number of EVs on the road, oil and gas companies are trying out a host of strategies to compensate.</b>  Electric vehicles (EVs) are poised to run over the oil and gas industry -- at least that’s what it seems like at first glance.</p><p><blockquote><b>随着特斯拉和其他汽车制造商增加道路上的电动汽车数量，石油和天然气公司正在尝试一系列策略来弥补。</b>电动汽车（EV）即将席卷石油和天然气行业——至少乍一看是这样。</blockquote></p><p> By 2050, the vast majority of transport vehicles on the road across the globe are expected to be electric, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). And the transportation industry contributes roughly half of all the business for integrated oil and gas companies, which handle all three aspects of the process from exploration to production to refining, according to Giacomo Romeo, integrated oil and gas analyst with Jefferies Group.</p><p><blockquote>据国际能源署(IEA)称，到2050年，全球道路上的绝大多数运输车辆预计都是电动的。杰富瑞集团(Jefferies Group)综合石油和天然气分析师贾科莫·罗密欧(Giacomo Romeo)表示，运输业约占综合石油和天然气公司所有业务的一半，这些公司处理从勘探到生产再到炼油的所有三个方面。</blockquote></p><p> Electric passenger vehicles such as the Tesla&nbsp;(<b>TSLA</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;Model 3, Nissan’s&nbsp;(<b>NSANY</b>)&nbsp;Leaf, Hyundai’s&nbsp;(<b>HYMTF</b>)&nbsp;Kona Electric and others are expected to account for 86% of all passenger vehicles on the road by 2050,up dramaticallyfrom just 1% last year. Meanwhile, electric vans are expected to soar to 84% of all vans from 0% last year, while 79% of buses and 59% of heavy trucks will be electric, up from 2% and 0%, respectively, according to IEA’s report “Net Zero by 2050: A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector.”</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉等电动乘用车（<b>特斯拉</b>)-获取报告Model 3，日产的(<b>恩萨尼</b>)聆风、现代的(<b>HYMTF</b>)预计到2050年，Kona Electric和其他公司将占道路上所有乘用车的86%，比去年的1%大幅上升。与此同时，根据IEA的报告，电动货车占所有货车的比例预计将从去年的0%飙升至84%，而79%的公共汽车和59%的重型卡车将是电动的，分别高于2%和0%。“2050年净零排放：全球能源行业路线图。”</blockquote></p><p> Catalysts driving this growth in the U.S. are expected to come from car manufacturers increasing both the total number of electric vehicles and the number of models they offer, government agencies offering incentives to consumers to purchase electric vehicles and support from President Biden to increase the use of electric vehicles, according to Edmunds. The automotive research firm released a report this year that found the U.S. electric vehicle market is on track to post record sales this year, with EVs expected to represent 2.5% of U.S. vehicle sales this year, up from 1.9% in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>预计推动美国这一增长的催化剂将来自汽车制造商增加电动汽车总数及其提供的车型数量、政府机构为消费者购买电动汽车提供激励措施以及拜登总统支持增加电动汽车的使用埃德蒙兹表示，电动汽车。这家汽车研究公司今年发布了一份报告，发现美国电动汽车市场今年的销量有望创下纪录，预计今年电动汽车将占美国汽车销量的2.5%，高于2020年的1.9%。</blockquote></p><p> “Price and choice of models are the biggest barriers to buying EVs for consumers,” said Jessica Caldwell, executive director of insights for Edmunds. “You always pay more for EVs and once people start shopping for a car, they start with the intent of buying an EV, but when they begin to compare they see they can get a bigger one with more features than an EV. People equate bigger with better and think it’s a nicer car and more worthy.\"</p><p><blockquote>Edmunds Insights执行董事杰西卡·考德威尔(Jessica Caldwell)表示：“价格和车型选择是消费者购买电动汽车的最大障碍。”“你总是为电动汽车支付更多费用，一旦人们开始购买汽车，他们一开始就打算购买电动汽车，但当他们开始比较时，他们会发现他们可以买到比电动汽车具有更多功能的更大的汽车。人们将更大等同于更好，认为这是一辆更好、更有价值的汽车。”</blockquote></p><p> Recently, consumers’ preference hasswung to larger vehiclesand those tend to be gas-powered. But this year, for the first time, consumers will have the option of purchasing electric trucks, which expands the consumer EV categories beyond just passenger cars and SUVs, Caldwell noted.</p><p><blockquote>最近，消费者的偏好转向了大型车辆，而且往往是汽油动力车辆。但考德威尔指出，今年，消费者将首次可以选择购买电动卡车，这将消费电动汽车类别扩展到乘用车和SUV之外。</blockquote></p><p> By 2030, EV sales worldwide are expected to reach 31.1 million and represent approximately 32% of all new car sales, up from 2.5 million EVs sold last year, according to Deloitte Insights’ “Electric Vehicles Setting a Course for 2030” report.</p><p><blockquote>根据Deloitte Insights的《电动汽车为2030年设定方向》报告，到2030年，全球电动汽车销量预计将达到3110万辆，约占所有新车销量的32%，高于去年电动汽车销量的250万辆。</blockquote></p><p> However, oil and gas companies, especially Royal Dutch Shell&nbsp;(<b>RDS.A</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;and British Petroleum&nbsp;(<b>BP ADR</b>), likely won't go the way of the dinosaurs as demand for their fossil fuels takes a deep dive, analysts say.</p><p><blockquote>然而，石油和天然气公司，特别是荷兰皇家壳牌（<b>RDS.A</b>)-Get报告和英国石油(<b>BP ADR</b>分析师表示，随着对化石燃料的需求大幅下降，可能不会重蹈恐龙的覆辙。</blockquote></p><p> “I’m not sure the transportation industry will get to 100% EV,” said Jamie Hamilton, director and leader in the UK automotive sector strategy and operations for Deloitte. “Passenger cars may get there in the next five to 10 years depending on prices coming down and charging infrastructure rollouts, but freight and heavy vehicles may not” due to their weight.</p><p><blockquote>德勤英国汽车行业战略和运营总监兼负责人杰米·汉密尔顿(Jamie Hamilton)表示：“我不确定交通运输行业能否实现100%电动汽车。”“根据价格下降和充电基础设施的推出，乘用车可能会在未来五到十年内实现这一目标，但货运和重型车辆可能不会”，因为它们的重量。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Dinosaurs Learn a New Dance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>恐龙学会了一种新的舞蹈</b></blockquote></p><p> The oil and gas industry is exploring a number of workarounds to avoid the financial hit from a potential decline in oil and gas demand brought on by electric vehicles. They received a taste of what a big dip in transportation demand would look like when COVID-19 hit and people hunkered down at home versus heading into the office or traveling.</p><p><blockquote>石油和天然气行业正在探索一系列解决方案，以避免电动汽车可能带来的石油和天然气需求下降带来的财务打击。他们尝到了当新冠肺炎来袭时，交通需求会大幅下降，人们会呆在家里，而不是去办公室或旅行。</blockquote></p><p> “Most of the oil and gas industry already had an eye on the changes going on in the larger market for some time, so the growth of EVs is not a surprise. But with the decline in driving and commuting with COVID, this was more stark than people predicted,” said Kate Hardin, executive director of Deloitte Energy, Resources and Industrials research center. “That took commuting down by 40% to 50% in some communities.”</p><p><blockquote>“一段时间以来，大多数石油和天然气行业已经关注更大市场正在发生的变化，因此电动汽车的增长并不令人意外。但随着新冠疫情导致驾驶和通勤量的下降，这种情况更加严重德勤能源、资源和工业研究中心执行董事凯特·哈丁表示：“比人们预测的还要明显。”“这使得一些社区的通勤时间减少了40%到50%。”</blockquote></p><p> Hardin said there has been a lot of discussion among large oil and gas companies to explore new business models, such as developing solar energy, battery technology and energy storage.</p><p><blockquote>哈丁表示，大型石油和天然气公司之间已经进行了大量讨论，以探索新的商业模式，例如开发太阳能、电池技术和储能。</blockquote></p><p> Many fossil fuel companies are investing in power generation, such as renewable energy including solar and wind, Romeo said. Currently, the oil and gas industry is investing 15% of its total capital into power generation, and that is expected to increase to 25% after 2025.</p><p><blockquote>罗密欧说，许多化石燃料公司正在投资发电，例如包括太阳能和风能在内的可再生能源。目前，石油和天然气行业将其总资本的15%投资于发电，预计2025年后这一比例将增至25%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> However, the power generation business has returns of 10% at best, while the downstream business of refining fossil fuels has returns of 10% to 15% and the upstream business of extracting and producing the fuels about 20%, Romeo said. While the oil and gas business generally has higher returns, Rome said it is also far more volatile than the power generation business.</p><p><blockquote>然而，罗密欧表示，发电业务的回报率最多为10%，而提炼化石燃料的下游业务的回报率为10%至15%，提取和生产燃料的上游业务的回报率约为20%。虽然石油和天然气业务通常具有更高的回报，但罗马表示，该业务的波动性也远高于发电业务。</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, the cost of capital for the oil and gas business is higher than that for the renewables industry, due to increasing environmental, social and governance (ESG)- related concerns in the oil and gas business, and declining interest from investors.</p><p><blockquote>此外，由于石油和天然气业务中与环境、社会和治理（ESG）相关的担忧日益增加，以及投资者兴趣下降，石油和天然气业务的资本成本高于可再生能源行业。</blockquote></p><p> “There is always a balance that has to be weighed,” Romeo said.</p><p><blockquote>“总有一个平衡必须权衡，”罗密欧说。</blockquote></p><p> <b>One-Stop Shop Strategy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>一站式策略</b></blockquote></p><p> The larger oil and gas companies are also evaluating the design and use of their retail gas stations as consumers’ needs and behavior are expected to change.</p><p><blockquote>随着消费者的需求和行为预计会发生变化，大型石油和天然气公司也在评估其零售加油站的设计和使用。</blockquote></p><p> Companies with a large network of gas stations are considering transitioning them to EV charging stations, and those that have convenience stores as part of their stations expect to make even more money off of them once they are converted. That’s because charging an EV typically takes significantly longer than filling an internal combustion engine vehicle with gas.</p><p><blockquote>拥有大型加油站网络的公司正在考虑将其转变为电动汽车充电站，而那些将便利店作为加油站一部分的公司则希望一旦转型，可以从中赚更多的钱。这是因为给电动汽车充电通常比给内燃机汽车加满汽油需要更长的时间。</blockquote></p><p> Companies in Europe and the U.S. actually get more revenue from their non-fuel business at their retail stations than they do from fuel, Romeo said.</p><p><blockquote>罗密欧说，欧洲和美国的公司实际上从零售站的非燃料业务中获得的收入比从燃料中获得的收入还要多。</blockquote></p><p> “Oil companies see [that] as people charge their cars, they will spend more time in retail stores drinking coffee, shopping for groceries,” Romeo said. “BP and Shell are already talking about this.”</p><p><blockquote>“石油公司认为，随着人们给汽车充电，他们将花更多时间在零售店喝咖啡、购买杂货，”罗密欧说。“BP和壳牌已经在讨论这个问题了。”</blockquote></p><p> However, people will also be using retail charging stations less often because they can charge their cars at home, at work or at other places that have charging stations.</p><p><blockquote>然而，人们使用零售充电站的频率也会降低，因为他们可以在家里、工作场所或其他有充电站的地方给汽车充电。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Other Survival Strategies</b></p><p><blockquote><b>其他生存策略</b></blockquote></p><p> Biofuels, which are produced from organic material such as corn, other vegetables and animal fats, are another area that oil and gas companies are exploring. For the aviation industry, biofuel is currently being mixed in with traditional jet fuel, but Boeing BA, for example, plans to fly its fleet using 100% biofuel by 2030, according to Reuters.</p><p><blockquote>由玉米、其他蔬菜和动物脂肪等有机材料生产的生物燃料是石油和天然气公司正在探索的另一个领域。据路透社报道，对于航空业来说，生物燃料目前正在与传统喷气燃料混合，但例如波音BA计划到2030年让其机队使用100%生物燃料。</blockquote></p><p> Biofuels have high returns on investment too, Romeo noted. One company, Finland-based Neste (OTC: NTOIY), recently moved away from traditional refining to become the world’s largest renewable diesel producer, generating 30% returns compared to 12% for its traditional refining business.</p><p><blockquote>罗密欧指出，生物燃料的投资回报率也很高。总部位于芬兰的Neste公司（场外交易代码：NTOIY）最近摆脱了传统炼油业务，成为全球最大的可再生柴油生产商，其回报率为30%，而传统炼油业务的回报率为12%。</blockquote></p><p> Integrated oil and gas companies, which handle all three aspects of the process including exploration, production and refining, are also investing in hydrogen and batteries. Because renewable energy sources such as solar and wind do not provide a constant stream of energy, the energy they generate needs to be stored in either hydrogen or batteries for later use.</p><p><blockquote>负责勘探、生产和炼油等流程所有三个方面的综合石油和天然气公司也在投资氢和电池。因为太阳能和风能等可再生能源不能提供源源不断的能量，它们产生的能量需要储存在氢气或电池中以备后用。</blockquote></p><p> Storing energy can be profitable since it allows companies like Shell and British Petroleum to act as energy traders that leverage supply and demand. Shell, for example, plans to increase its power trading business from 255 Terawatts per hour (TWh) now to 560TWh in 2030, Romeo said.</p><p><blockquote>储存能源是有利可图的，因为它允许壳牌和英国石油公司等公司充当利用供需的能源交易商。罗密欧表示，例如，壳牌计划将其电力交易业务从目前的每小时255太瓦(TWh)增加到2030年的560TWh。</blockquote></p><p> The battery energy storage market is expected to reach $19.7 billion by 2027, according to Fortune Business Insights. However, that’s a drop in the bucket compared to the global oil and gas exploration and production market, which is expected to reach an estimated $2.1 trillion this year, according to IBISWorld.</p><p><blockquote>根据《财富商业洞察》的数据，到2027年，电池储能市场预计将达到197亿美元。然而，与全球石油和天然气勘探和生产市场相比，这只是九牛一毛，根据IBISWorld的数据，全球石油和天然气勘探和生产市场今年预计将达到2.1万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Which Oil Companies Could Still Thrive</b></p><p><blockquote><b>哪些石油公司仍能蓬勃发展</b></blockquote></p><p> Potentialwinners in making the transitionas electric vehicles eat into their fossil fuel business include Shell.</p><p><blockquote>随着电动汽车蚕食其化石燃料业务，实现转型的潜在赢家包括壳牌。</blockquote></p><p> “I like Shell -- I believe they see energy transition from the right angle,” Romeo said. “They view themselves as an energy center that delivers lower-carbon energy solutions. They don’t seek to own capacity but instead, they plan to deliver de-carbonization solutions to their customers via a combination of renewable power, carbon credits, and other offsets.”</p><p><blockquote>“我喜欢壳牌——我相信他们从正确的角度看待能源转型，”罗密欧说。“他们将自己视为提供低碳能源解决方案的能源中心。他们并不寻求拥有产能，而是计划通过可再生能源、碳信用额和其他补偿的组合向客户提供脱碳解决方案。”</blockquote></p><p> Edmunds’ Caldwell believes the traditional oil and gas companies have some staying power, despite recent moves by states and nations to limit the sale of new gas-powered vehicles over the next several decades.</p><p><blockquote>埃德蒙兹的考德威尔认为，尽管各州和国家最近采取行动限制未来几十年新型汽油动力汽车的销售，但传统石油和天然气公司仍有一定的持久力。</blockquote></p><p> “Gas-powered vehicles are not going away overnight. The bans are on new vehicle sales and not ownership of gas-powered vehicles. I think there will be a long window for the oil and gas industries to pivot. It is not a flip of the switch and they’re gone,” Caldwell said.</p><p><blockquote>“汽油动力汽车不会在一夜之间消失。禁令针对的是新车销售，而不是汽油动力汽车的所有权。我认为石油和天然气行业将有一个很长的转变窗口。这不是一个翻转开关，他们就走了，”考德威尔说。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610613172068","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What the Growing Ascendance of Electric Vehicles Means for Oil and Gas Stocks<blockquote>电动汽车的日益崛起对石油和天然气股意味着什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat the Growing Ascendance of Electric Vehicles Means for Oil and Gas Stocks<blockquote>电动汽车的日益崛起对石油和天然气股意味着什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Street</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-24 15:01</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>As Tesla and other carmakers ramp up the number of EVs on the road, oil and gas companies are trying out a host of strategies to compensate.</b>  Electric vehicles (EVs) are poised to run over the oil and gas industry -- at least that’s what it seems like at first glance.</p><p><blockquote><b>随着特斯拉和其他汽车制造商增加道路上的电动汽车数量，石油和天然气公司正在尝试一系列策略来弥补。</b>电动汽车（EV）即将席卷石油和天然气行业——至少乍一看是这样。</blockquote></p><p> By 2050, the vast majority of transport vehicles on the road across the globe are expected to be electric, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). And the transportation industry contributes roughly half of all the business for integrated oil and gas companies, which handle all three aspects of the process from exploration to production to refining, according to Giacomo Romeo, integrated oil and gas analyst with Jefferies Group.</p><p><blockquote>据国际能源署(IEA)称，到2050年，全球道路上的绝大多数运输车辆预计都是电动的。杰富瑞集团(Jefferies Group)综合石油和天然气分析师贾科莫·罗密欧(Giacomo Romeo)表示，运输业约占综合石油和天然气公司所有业务的一半，这些公司处理从勘探到生产再到炼油的所有三个方面。</blockquote></p><p> Electric passenger vehicles such as the Tesla&nbsp;(<b>TSLA</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;Model 3, Nissan’s&nbsp;(<b>NSANY</b>)&nbsp;Leaf, Hyundai’s&nbsp;(<b>HYMTF</b>)&nbsp;Kona Electric and others are expected to account for 86% of all passenger vehicles on the road by 2050,up dramaticallyfrom just 1% last year. Meanwhile, electric vans are expected to soar to 84% of all vans from 0% last year, while 79% of buses and 59% of heavy trucks will be electric, up from 2% and 0%, respectively, according to IEA’s report “Net Zero by 2050: A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector.”</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉等电动乘用车（<b>特斯拉</b>)-获取报告Model 3，日产的(<b>恩萨尼</b>)聆风、现代的(<b>HYMTF</b>)预计到2050年，Kona Electric和其他公司将占道路上所有乘用车的86%，比去年的1%大幅上升。与此同时，根据IEA的报告，电动货车占所有货车的比例预计将从去年的0%飙升至84%，而79%的公共汽车和59%的重型卡车将是电动的，分别高于2%和0%。“2050年净零排放：全球能源行业路线图。”</blockquote></p><p> Catalysts driving this growth in the U.S. are expected to come from car manufacturers increasing both the total number of electric vehicles and the number of models they offer, government agencies offering incentives to consumers to purchase electric vehicles and support from President Biden to increase the use of electric vehicles, according to Edmunds. The automotive research firm released a report this year that found the U.S. electric vehicle market is on track to post record sales this year, with EVs expected to represent 2.5% of U.S. vehicle sales this year, up from 1.9% in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>预计推动美国这一增长的催化剂将来自汽车制造商增加电动汽车总数及其提供的车型数量、政府机构为消费者购买电动汽车提供激励措施以及拜登总统支持增加电动汽车的使用埃德蒙兹表示，电动汽车。这家汽车研究公司今年发布了一份报告，发现美国电动汽车市场今年的销量有望创下纪录，预计今年电动汽车将占美国汽车销量的2.5%，高于2020年的1.9%。</blockquote></p><p> “Price and choice of models are the biggest barriers to buying EVs for consumers,” said Jessica Caldwell, executive director of insights for Edmunds. “You always pay more for EVs and once people start shopping for a car, they start with the intent of buying an EV, but when they begin to compare they see they can get a bigger one with more features than an EV. People equate bigger with better and think it’s a nicer car and more worthy.\"</p><p><blockquote>Edmunds Insights执行董事杰西卡·考德威尔(Jessica Caldwell)表示：“价格和车型选择是消费者购买电动汽车的最大障碍。”“你总是为电动汽车支付更多费用，一旦人们开始购买汽车，他们一开始就打算购买电动汽车，但当他们开始比较时，他们会发现他们可以买到比电动汽车具有更多功能的更大的汽车。人们将更大等同于更好，认为这是一辆更好、更有价值的汽车。”</blockquote></p><p> Recently, consumers’ preference hasswung to larger vehiclesand those tend to be gas-powered. But this year, for the first time, consumers will have the option of purchasing electric trucks, which expands the consumer EV categories beyond just passenger cars and SUVs, Caldwell noted.</p><p><blockquote>最近，消费者的偏好转向了大型车辆，而且往往是汽油动力车辆。但考德威尔指出，今年，消费者将首次可以选择购买电动卡车，这将消费电动汽车类别扩展到乘用车和SUV之外。</blockquote></p><p> By 2030, EV sales worldwide are expected to reach 31.1 million and represent approximately 32% of all new car sales, up from 2.5 million EVs sold last year, according to Deloitte Insights’ “Electric Vehicles Setting a Course for 2030” report.</p><p><blockquote>根据Deloitte Insights的《电动汽车为2030年设定方向》报告，到2030年，全球电动汽车销量预计将达到3110万辆，约占所有新车销量的32%，高于去年电动汽车销量的250万辆。</blockquote></p><p> However, oil and gas companies, especially Royal Dutch Shell&nbsp;(<b>RDS.A</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;and British Petroleum&nbsp;(<b>BP ADR</b>), likely won't go the way of the dinosaurs as demand for their fossil fuels takes a deep dive, analysts say.</p><p><blockquote>然而，石油和天然气公司，特别是荷兰皇家壳牌（<b>RDS.A</b>)-Get报告和英国石油(<b>BP ADR</b>分析师表示，随着对化石燃料的需求大幅下降，可能不会重蹈恐龙的覆辙。</blockquote></p><p> “I’m not sure the transportation industry will get to 100% EV,” said Jamie Hamilton, director and leader in the UK automotive sector strategy and operations for Deloitte. “Passenger cars may get there in the next five to 10 years depending on prices coming down and charging infrastructure rollouts, but freight and heavy vehicles may not” due to their weight.</p><p><blockquote>德勤英国汽车行业战略和运营总监兼负责人杰米·汉密尔顿(Jamie Hamilton)表示：“我不确定交通运输行业能否实现100%电动汽车。”“根据价格下降和充电基础设施的推出，乘用车可能会在未来五到十年内实现这一目标，但货运和重型车辆可能不会”，因为它们的重量。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Dinosaurs Learn a New Dance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>恐龙学会了一种新的舞蹈</b></blockquote></p><p> The oil and gas industry is exploring a number of workarounds to avoid the financial hit from a potential decline in oil and gas demand brought on by electric vehicles. They received a taste of what a big dip in transportation demand would look like when COVID-19 hit and people hunkered down at home versus heading into the office or traveling.</p><p><blockquote>石油和天然气行业正在探索一系列解决方案，以避免电动汽车可能带来的石油和天然气需求下降带来的财务打击。他们尝到了当新冠肺炎来袭时，交通需求会大幅下降，人们会呆在家里，而不是去办公室或旅行。</blockquote></p><p> “Most of the oil and gas industry already had an eye on the changes going on in the larger market for some time, so the growth of EVs is not a surprise. But with the decline in driving and commuting with COVID, this was more stark than people predicted,” said Kate Hardin, executive director of Deloitte Energy, Resources and Industrials research center. “That took commuting down by 40% to 50% in some communities.”</p><p><blockquote>“一段时间以来，大多数石油和天然气行业已经关注更大市场正在发生的变化，因此电动汽车的增长并不令人意外。但随着新冠疫情导致驾驶和通勤量的下降，这种情况更加严重德勤能源、资源和工业研究中心执行董事凯特·哈丁表示：“比人们预测的还要明显。”“这使得一些社区的通勤时间减少了40%到50%。”</blockquote></p><p> Hardin said there has been a lot of discussion among large oil and gas companies to explore new business models, such as developing solar energy, battery technology and energy storage.</p><p><blockquote>哈丁表示，大型石油和天然气公司之间已经进行了大量讨论，以探索新的商业模式，例如开发太阳能、电池技术和储能。</blockquote></p><p> Many fossil fuel companies are investing in power generation, such as renewable energy including solar and wind, Romeo said. Currently, the oil and gas industry is investing 15% of its total capital into power generation, and that is expected to increase to 25% after 2025.</p><p><blockquote>罗密欧说，许多化石燃料公司正在投资发电，例如包括太阳能和风能在内的可再生能源。目前，石油和天然气行业将其总资本的15%投资于发电，预计2025年后这一比例将增至25%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> However, the power generation business has returns of 10% at best, while the downstream business of refining fossil fuels has returns of 10% to 15% and the upstream business of extracting and producing the fuels about 20%, Romeo said. While the oil and gas business generally has higher returns, Rome said it is also far more volatile than the power generation business.</p><p><blockquote>然而，罗密欧表示，发电业务的回报率最多为10%，而提炼化石燃料的下游业务的回报率为10%至15%，提取和生产燃料的上游业务的回报率约为20%。虽然石油和天然气业务通常具有更高的回报，但罗马表示，该业务的波动性也远高于发电业务。</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, the cost of capital for the oil and gas business is higher than that for the renewables industry, due to increasing environmental, social and governance (ESG)- related concerns in the oil and gas business, and declining interest from investors.</p><p><blockquote>此外，由于石油和天然气业务中与环境、社会和治理（ESG）相关的担忧日益增加，以及投资者兴趣下降，石油和天然气业务的资本成本高于可再生能源行业。</blockquote></p><p> “There is always a balance that has to be weighed,” Romeo said.</p><p><blockquote>“总有一个平衡必须权衡，”罗密欧说。</blockquote></p><p> <b>One-Stop Shop Strategy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>一站式策略</b></blockquote></p><p> The larger oil and gas companies are also evaluating the design and use of their retail gas stations as consumers’ needs and behavior are expected to change.</p><p><blockquote>随着消费者的需求和行为预计会发生变化，大型石油和天然气公司也在评估其零售加油站的设计和使用。</blockquote></p><p> Companies with a large network of gas stations are considering transitioning them to EV charging stations, and those that have convenience stores as part of their stations expect to make even more money off of them once they are converted. That’s because charging an EV typically takes significantly longer than filling an internal combustion engine vehicle with gas.</p><p><blockquote>拥有大型加油站网络的公司正在考虑将其转变为电动汽车充电站，而那些将便利店作为加油站一部分的公司则希望一旦转型，可以从中赚更多的钱。这是因为给电动汽车充电通常比给内燃机汽车加满汽油需要更长的时间。</blockquote></p><p> Companies in Europe and the U.S. actually get more revenue from their non-fuel business at their retail stations than they do from fuel, Romeo said.</p><p><blockquote>罗密欧说，欧洲和美国的公司实际上从零售站的非燃料业务中获得的收入比从燃料中获得的收入还要多。</blockquote></p><p> “Oil companies see [that] as people charge their cars, they will spend more time in retail stores drinking coffee, shopping for groceries,” Romeo said. “BP and Shell are already talking about this.”</p><p><blockquote>“石油公司认为，随着人们给汽车充电，他们将花更多时间在零售店喝咖啡、购买杂货，”罗密欧说。“BP和壳牌已经在讨论这个问题了。”</blockquote></p><p> However, people will also be using retail charging stations less often because they can charge their cars at home, at work or at other places that have charging stations.</p><p><blockquote>然而，人们使用零售充电站的频率也会降低，因为他们可以在家里、工作场所或其他有充电站的地方给汽车充电。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Other Survival Strategies</b></p><p><blockquote><b>其他生存策略</b></blockquote></p><p> Biofuels, which are produced from organic material such as corn, other vegetables and animal fats, are another area that oil and gas companies are exploring. For the aviation industry, biofuel is currently being mixed in with traditional jet fuel, but Boeing BA, for example, plans to fly its fleet using 100% biofuel by 2030, according to Reuters.</p><p><blockquote>由玉米、其他蔬菜和动物脂肪等有机材料生产的生物燃料是石油和天然气公司正在探索的另一个领域。据路透社报道，对于航空业来说，生物燃料目前正在与传统喷气燃料混合，但例如波音BA计划到2030年让其机队使用100%生物燃料。</blockquote></p><p> Biofuels have high returns on investment too, Romeo noted. One company, Finland-based Neste (OTC: NTOIY), recently moved away from traditional refining to become the world’s largest renewable diesel producer, generating 30% returns compared to 12% for its traditional refining business.</p><p><blockquote>罗密欧指出，生物燃料的投资回报率也很高。总部位于芬兰的Neste公司（场外交易代码：NTOIY）最近摆脱了传统炼油业务，成为全球最大的可再生柴油生产商，其回报率为30%，而传统炼油业务的回报率为12%。</blockquote></p><p> Integrated oil and gas companies, which handle all three aspects of the process including exploration, production and refining, are also investing in hydrogen and batteries. Because renewable energy sources such as solar and wind do not provide a constant stream of energy, the energy they generate needs to be stored in either hydrogen or batteries for later use.</p><p><blockquote>负责勘探、生产和炼油等流程所有三个方面的综合石油和天然气公司也在投资氢和电池。因为太阳能和风能等可再生能源不能提供源源不断的能量，它们产生的能量需要储存在氢气或电池中以备后用。</blockquote></p><p> Storing energy can be profitable since it allows companies like Shell and British Petroleum to act as energy traders that leverage supply and demand. Shell, for example, plans to increase its power trading business from 255 Terawatts per hour (TWh) now to 560TWh in 2030, Romeo said.</p><p><blockquote>储存能源是有利可图的，因为它允许壳牌和英国石油公司等公司充当利用供需的能源交易商。罗密欧表示，例如，壳牌计划将其电力交易业务从目前的每小时255太瓦(TWh)增加到2030年的560TWh。</blockquote></p><p> The battery energy storage market is expected to reach $19.7 billion by 2027, according to Fortune Business Insights. However, that’s a drop in the bucket compared to the global oil and gas exploration and production market, which is expected to reach an estimated $2.1 trillion this year, according to IBISWorld.</p><p><blockquote>根据《财富商业洞察》的数据，到2027年，电池储能市场预计将达到197亿美元。然而，与全球石油和天然气勘探和生产市场相比，这只是九牛一毛，根据IBISWorld的数据，全球石油和天然气勘探和生产市场今年预计将达到2.1万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Which Oil Companies Could Still Thrive</b></p><p><blockquote><b>哪些石油公司仍能蓬勃发展</b></blockquote></p><p> Potentialwinners in making the transitionas electric vehicles eat into their fossil fuel business include Shell.</p><p><blockquote>随着电动汽车蚕食其化石燃料业务，实现转型的潜在赢家包括壳牌。</blockquote></p><p> “I like Shell -- I believe they see energy transition from the right angle,” Romeo said. “They view themselves as an energy center that delivers lower-carbon energy solutions. They don’t seek to own capacity but instead, they plan to deliver de-carbonization solutions to their customers via a combination of renewable power, carbon credits, and other offsets.”</p><p><blockquote>“我喜欢壳牌——我相信他们从正确的角度看待能源转型，”罗密欧说。“他们将自己视为提供低碳能源解决方案的能源中心。他们并不寻求拥有产能，而是计划通过可再生能源、碳信用额和其他补偿的组合向客户提供脱碳解决方案。”</blockquote></p><p> Edmunds’ Caldwell believes the traditional oil and gas companies have some staying power, despite recent moves by states and nations to limit the sale of new gas-powered vehicles over the next several decades.</p><p><blockquote>埃德蒙兹的考德威尔认为，尽管各州和国家最近采取行动限制未来几十年新型汽油动力汽车的销售，但传统石油和天然气公司仍有一定的持久力。</blockquote></p><p> “Gas-powered vehicles are not going away overnight. The bans are on new vehicle sales and not ownership of gas-powered vehicles. I think there will be a long window for the oil and gas industries to pivot. It is not a flip of the switch and they’re gone,” Caldwell said.</p><p><blockquote>“汽油动力汽车不会在一夜之间消失。禁令针对的是新车销售，而不是汽油动力汽车的所有权。我认为石油和天然气行业将有一个很长的转变窗口。这不是一个翻转开关，他们就走了，”考德威尔说。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/what-growing-ascendance-of-evs-means-for-oil-and-gas-stocks\">The Street</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BP":"英国石油","TSLA":"特斯拉","NSANY":"日产汽车","RDS.A":"荷兰皇家壳牌石油A类股"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/what-growing-ascendance-of-evs-means-for-oil-and-gas-stocks","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170018171","content_text":"As Tesla and other carmakers ramp up the number of EVs on the road, oil and gas companies are trying out a host of strategies to compensate.\n\nElectric vehicles (EVs) are poised to run over the oil and gas industry -- at least that’s what it seems like at first glance.\nBy 2050, the vast majority of transport vehicles on the road across the globe are expected to be electric, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). And the transportation industry contributes roughly half of all the business for integrated oil and gas companies, which handle all three aspects of the process from exploration to production to refining, according to Giacomo Romeo, integrated oil and gas analyst with Jefferies Group.\nElectric passenger vehicles such as the Tesla (TSLA) -Get Report Model 3, Nissan’s (NSANY) Leaf, Hyundai’s (HYMTF) Kona Electric and others are expected to account for 86% of all passenger vehicles on the road by 2050,up dramaticallyfrom just 1% last year. Meanwhile, electric vans are expected to soar to 84% of all vans from 0% last year, while 79% of buses and 59% of heavy trucks will be electric, up from 2% and 0%, respectively, according to IEA’s report “Net Zero by 2050: A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector.”\nCatalysts driving this growth in the U.S. are expected to come from car manufacturers increasing both the total number of electric vehicles and the number of models they offer, government agencies offering incentives to consumers to purchase electric vehicles and support from President Biden to increase the use of electric vehicles, according to Edmunds. The automotive research firm released a report this year that found the U.S. electric vehicle market is on track to post record sales this year, with EVs expected to represent 2.5% of U.S. vehicle sales this year, up from 1.9% in 2020.\n“Price and choice of models are the biggest barriers to buying EVs for consumers,” said Jessica Caldwell, executive director of insights for Edmunds. “You always pay more for EVs and once people start shopping for a car, they start with the intent of buying an EV, but when they begin to compare they see they can get a bigger one with more features than an EV. People equate bigger with better and think it’s a nicer car and more worthy.\"\nRecently, consumers’ preference hasswung to larger vehiclesand those tend to be gas-powered. But this year, for the first time, consumers will have the option of purchasing electric trucks, which expands the consumer EV categories beyond just passenger cars and SUVs, Caldwell noted.\nBy 2030, EV sales worldwide are expected to reach 31.1 million and represent approximately 32% of all new car sales, up from 2.5 million EVs sold last year, according to Deloitte Insights’ “Electric Vehicles Setting a Course for 2030” report.\nHowever, oil and gas companies, especially Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) -Get Report and British Petroleum (BP ADR), likely won't go the way of the dinosaurs as demand for their fossil fuels takes a deep dive, analysts say.\n“I’m not sure the transportation industry will get to 100% EV,” said Jamie Hamilton, director and leader in the UK automotive sector strategy and operations for Deloitte. “Passenger cars may get there in the next five to 10 years depending on prices coming down and charging infrastructure rollouts, but freight and heavy vehicles may not” due to their weight.\nDinosaurs Learn a New Dance\nThe oil and gas industry is exploring a number of workarounds to avoid the financial hit from a potential decline in oil and gas demand brought on by electric vehicles. They received a taste of what a big dip in transportation demand would look like when COVID-19 hit and people hunkered down at home versus heading into the office or traveling.\n“Most of the oil and gas industry already had an eye on the changes going on in the larger market for some time, so the growth of EVs is not a surprise. But with the decline in driving and commuting with COVID, this was more stark than people predicted,” said Kate Hardin, executive director of Deloitte Energy, Resources and Industrials research center. “That took commuting down by 40% to 50% in some communities.”\nHardin said there has been a lot of discussion among large oil and gas companies to explore new business models, such as developing solar energy, battery technology and energy storage.\nMany fossil fuel companies are investing in power generation, such as renewable energy including solar and wind, Romeo said. Currently, the oil and gas industry is investing 15% of its total capital into power generation, and that is expected to increase to 25% after 2025.\nHowever, the power generation business has returns of 10% at best, while the downstream business of refining fossil fuels has returns of 10% to 15% and the upstream business of extracting and producing the fuels about 20%, Romeo said. While the oil and gas business generally has higher returns, Rome said it is also far more volatile than the power generation business.\nAdditionally, the cost of capital for the oil and gas business is higher than that for the renewables industry, due to increasing environmental, social and governance (ESG)- related concerns in the oil and gas business, and declining interest from investors.\n“There is always a balance that has to be weighed,” Romeo said.\nOne-Stop Shop Strategy\nThe larger oil and gas companies are also evaluating the design and use of their retail gas stations as consumers’ needs and behavior are expected to change.\nCompanies with a large network of gas stations are considering transitioning them to EV charging stations, and those that have convenience stores as part of their stations expect to make even more money off of them once they are converted. That’s because charging an EV typically takes significantly longer than filling an internal combustion engine vehicle with gas.\nCompanies in Europe and the U.S. actually get more revenue from their non-fuel business at their retail stations than they do from fuel, Romeo said.\n“Oil companies see [that] as people charge their cars, they will spend more time in retail stores drinking coffee, shopping for groceries,” Romeo said. “BP and Shell are already talking about this.”\nHowever, people will also be using retail charging stations less often because they can charge their cars at home, at work or at other places that have charging stations.\nOther Survival Strategies\nBiofuels, which are produced from organic material such as corn, other vegetables and animal fats, are another area that oil and gas companies are exploring. For the aviation industry, biofuel is currently being mixed in with traditional jet fuel, but Boeing BA, for example, plans to fly its fleet using 100% biofuel by 2030, according to Reuters.\nBiofuels have high returns on investment too, Romeo noted. One company, Finland-based Neste (OTC: NTOIY), recently moved away from traditional refining to become the world’s largest renewable diesel producer, generating 30% returns compared to 12% for its traditional refining business.\nIntegrated oil and gas companies, which handle all three aspects of the process including exploration, production and refining, are also investing in hydrogen and batteries. Because renewable energy sources such as solar and wind do not provide a constant stream of energy, the energy they generate needs to be stored in either hydrogen or batteries for later use.\nStoring energy can be profitable since it allows companies like Shell and British Petroleum to act as energy traders that leverage supply and demand. Shell, for example, plans to increase its power trading business from 255 Terawatts per hour (TWh) now to 560TWh in 2030, Romeo said.\nThe battery energy storage market is expected to reach $19.7 billion by 2027, according to Fortune Business Insights. However, that’s a drop in the bucket compared to the global oil and gas exploration and production market, which is expected to reach an estimated $2.1 trillion this year, according to IBISWorld.\nWhich Oil Companies Could Still Thrive\nPotentialwinners in making the transitionas electric vehicles eat into their fossil fuel business include Shell.\n“I like Shell -- I believe they see energy transition from the right angle,” Romeo said. “They view themselves as an energy center that delivers lower-carbon energy solutions. They don’t seek to own capacity but instead, they plan to deliver de-carbonization solutions to their customers via a combination of renewable power, carbon credits, and other offsets.”\nEdmunds’ Caldwell believes the traditional oil and gas companies have some staying power, despite recent moves by states and nations to limit the sale of new gas-powered vehicles over the next several decades.\n“Gas-powered vehicles are not going away overnight. The bans are on new vehicle sales and not ownership of gas-powered vehicles. I think there will be a long window for the oil and gas industries to pivot. It is not a flip of the switch and they’re gone,” Caldwell said.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BP":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,"RDS.A":0.9,"NSANY":0.9,"HYMTF":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1365,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160365779,"gmtCreate":1623772985791,"gmtModify":1631886393985,"author":{"id":"3583447705533959","authorId":"3583447705533959","name":"Kmj121","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c59f0eacf93cd197ec1e2105b1796413","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583447705533959","idStr":"3583447705533959"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOS\">$SOS Limited(SOS)$</a>Gg","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOS\">$SOS Limited(SOS)$</a>Gg","text":"$SOS Limited(SOS)$Gg","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160365779","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1296,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":184473919,"gmtCreate":1623723096431,"gmtModify":1631885826791,"author":{"id":"3583447705533959","authorId":"3583447705533959","name":"Kmj121","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c59f0eacf93cd197ec1e2105b1796413","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583447705533959","idStr":"3583447705533959"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BB\">$BlackBerry(BB)$</a>why bb&nbsp;keep sleeping one","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BB\">$BlackBerry(BB)$</a>why bb&nbsp;keep sleeping one","text":"$BlackBerry(BB)$why bb keep sleeping one","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/184473919","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1417,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":134932777,"gmtCreate":1622199077599,"gmtModify":1634182934480,"author":{"id":"3583447705533959","authorId":"3583447705533959","name":"Kmj121","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c59f0eacf93cd197ec1e2105b1796413","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583447705533959","idStr":"3583447705533959"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>及时上车","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>及时上车","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$及时上车","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66947a46092de49ba7321364b5cd9b7d","width":"1242","height":"2001"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/134932777","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1429,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":177197429,"gmtCreate":1627185283161,"gmtModify":1633767342987,"author":{"id":"3583447705533959","authorId":"3583447705533959","name":"Kmj121","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c59f0eacf93cd197ec1e2105b1796413","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583447705533959","authorIdStr":"3583447705533959"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"no","listText":"no","text":"no","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177197429","repostId":"1112927800","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1112927800","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627089375,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1112927800?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-24 09:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Will NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks<blockquote>蔚来股票会追随特斯拉的脚步吗？这两只电动汽车股票之间需要考虑什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112927800","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Let's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.NIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.NIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.Both companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV p","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Let's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.</li>  <li>NIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.</li>  <li>NIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f749c70c8a2af3e18d5f6cecc72bfbb\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"704\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>ipopba/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>让我们来看看今天的蔚来与特斯拉相比如何，蔚来的独特卖点，以及两家公司的相似之处。</li><li>蔚来是一个高增长的选择，相对于特斯拉的估值，它似乎并不太昂贵。</li><li>然而，蔚来并不是一只低风险股票，它可能并不是每个人的好选择。投资者还应该考虑蔚来与传统汽车公司的估值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ipopba/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO, Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading EV players, and has, through an attractive brand and its unique BaaS offering, attracted a lot of interest from consumers and investors. Today, however, the company is still way smaller than Tesla (TSLA), which is currently leading the global EV market. NIO is focused on its home market right now, which was true when Tesla was a smaller company as well, but NIO will try to grab market share in overseas markets as well. Shares are pricing in a lot of growth already, but if NIO can replicate Tesla's success, that could be more than justified.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来公司（蔚来）是中国领先的电动汽车制造商之一，通过其有吸引力的品牌和独特的BaaS产品吸引了消费者和投资者的极大兴趣。然而，如今，该公司仍然比目前引领全球电动汽车市场的特斯拉（TSLA）小得多。蔚来目前专注于国内市场，当特斯拉还是一家较小的公司时也是如此，但蔚来也将试图在海外市场抢占市场份额。股价已经反映了很大的增长，但如果蔚来能够复制特斯拉的成功，这可能是非常合理的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO And TSLA Stock Prices</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来和特斯拉股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Both companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV pureplays rise rapidly. The combination of growing market share for EVs, accommodating policies such as subsidies for EV purchases, and massive monetary stimulus let shares of NIO and TSLA rise rapidly. NIO is up 245% over the last year, while TSLA is up 101% over the same time. Both companies are currently trading below their all-time highs, however, which were hit in early 2021 before market sentiment for EV pureplays cooled to some degree.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，两家公司都受益于人们对电动汽车日益增长的兴趣，这一趋势导致大多数纯电动汽车公司的股价迅速上涨。电动汽车市场份额不断增长、电动汽车购买补贴等宽松政策以及大规模货币刺激措施相结合，让蔚来和特斯拉的股价迅速上涨。蔚来去年上涨了245%，而特斯拉同期上涨了101%。然而，两家公司目前的交易价格均低于2021年初创下的历史高点，随后纯电动汽车的市场情绪在一定程度上降温。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ff5ce865807df85283775d2293b41af\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Taking a quick look at analyst price targets, we see that Tesla is trading almost perfectly in line with the consensus, whereas NIO trades about 30% below the analyst target. If the analyst community is right, then NIO is a substantially better investment right here, as Tesla is not expected to see its shares rise meaningfully over the next year, whereas NIO has significant upside to the analyst price target.</p><p><blockquote>快速浏览一下分析师的目标价，我们发现特斯拉的交易价格几乎完全符合共识，而蔚来的交易价格比分析师目标低约30%。如果分析师界是正确的，那么蔚来是一项更好的投资，因为预计特斯拉的股价明年不会大幅上涨，而蔚来的股价较分析师目标价有显着上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO Similar To Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来和特斯拉相似吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that question depends on what you focus on. There are similarities between the two companies, but there are also differences. One could thus say that, in some ways, the two are similar, but in others, they are not. Let's look at a couple of things:</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案取决于你关注的是什么。两家公司有相似之处，但也有不同之处。因此，人们可以说，在某些方面，两者是相似的，但在另一些方面，它们不是。让我们看几件事：</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Both companies are focused on the EV space, although Tesla has, over the years, been building out a couple of other businesses as well, such as energy storage. Most of Tesla's revenues are generated through selling electric vehicles, which is also how NIO operates. Both companies are focused on the premium segment of EVs, selling higher-priced vehicles that compete with brands such as BMW, Mercedes, and Lexus. Both companies offer a small range of different vehicles, in Tesla's case those are the well-known S, X, 3, and Y, whereas NIO offers a sedan (ET7), and three SUVs (EC6, ES6, ES8). Despite the fact that NIO is a way smaller company today, the model lineups of the two companies do thus not differ too much.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都专注于电动汽车领域，尽管特斯拉多年来也在发展其他一些业务，例如储能。特斯拉的大部分收入来自销售电动汽车，这也是蔚来的运营方式。两家公司都专注于电动汽车的高端市场，销售与宝马、梅赛德斯和雷克萨斯等品牌竞争的高价汽车。两家公司都提供少量不同的车辆，特斯拉是著名的S、X、3和Y，而蔚来则提供一款轿车(ET7)和三款SUV(EC6、ES6、ES8)。尽管蔚来如今是一家规模较小的公司，但两家公司的车型阵容并没有太大差异。</blockquote></p><p> Both companies offer some type of charging infrastructure to their customers, in Tesla's case, that's the Supercharger network, where Tesla owners can charge their cars with up to 250kW, depending on what version of Supercharger is installed. NIO is following a different approach, offering a battery-as-a-service solution to its customers. NIO owners can get their battery switched out to a fully-charged battery at NIO's stations, a process that takes a couple of minutes and is thus significantly quicker compared to the regular EV charging offered by Tesla and other EV players. BaaS thus has advantages when it comes to the time it takes for a charge/swap, but it should be noted that Tesla's Superchargers are way more common around the world compared to NIO's battery-swapping stations. Rolling out that feature in additional markets will require large capital expenditures, but NIO's offering is a unique selling point compared to what all other EV players, including Tesla, are offering. It remains to be seen whether that will ultimately pay off, but this could become a major advantage for NIO as competition in the EV space is heating up.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都向客户提供某种类型的充电基础设施，就特斯拉而言，这就是Supercharger网络，特斯拉车主可以根据安装的Supercharger版本为汽车充电高达250kW。蔚来正在采取不同的方法，为客户提供电池即服务解决方案。蔚来车主可以在蔚来的充电站将电池更换为充满电的电池，这一过程需要几分钟，因此与特斯拉和其他电动汽车厂商提供的常规电动汽车充电相比要快得多。因此，BaaS在充电/交换所需时间方面具有优势，但应该指出的是，与蔚来的电池交换站相比，特斯拉的超级充电站在世界各地更为常见。在其他市场推出该功能将需要大量资本支出，但与包括特斯拉在内的所有其他电动汽车厂商相比，蔚来的产品是一个独特的卖点。这最终是否会得到回报还有待观察，但随着电动汽车领域的竞争加剧，这可能成为蔚来的一大优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Size, growth, and valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>规模、增长和估值</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The two companies differ significantly in size, both when it comes to revenues and vehicle sales, as well as when it comes to the market value of the two companies. NIO has delivered22,000 vehicles in Q2, up 112% year over year, for an annual pace of around 90,000 vehicles. Tesla, meanwhile, has delivered 201,000 vehicles during Q2, up from 103,000 vehicles delivered during Q2 2020. This is strong growth on a year-over-year basis, although slightly below 100%, and thus below the growth rate that NIO is generating for now.</p><p><blockquote>这两家公司的规模差异很大，无论是在收入和汽车销量方面，还是在两家公司的市值方面。蔚来第二季度交付了22,000辆汽车，同比增长112%，年增长率约为90,000辆。与此同时，特斯拉在第二季度交付了201,000辆汽车，高于2020年第二季度的103,000辆汽车。这是一个强劲的同比增长，尽管略低于100%，因此低于蔚来目前的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla delivers around 9x as many vehicles compared to NIO per quarter, when we look at the market capitalizations of the two companies, we see that the ratio is almost exactly the same, as Tesla's market cap of $640 billion is ~9x as high as that of NIO, at $72 billion. At similar growth rates, that would make perfect sense, but it looks like NIO might be the better deal for now, as it trades at a comparable valuation while generating better growth. This will be especially true in the coming quarters, where Tesla's growth is expected to slow down:</p><p><blockquote>与蔚来相比，特斯拉每季度交付的汽车数量约为9倍，当我们查看两家公司的市值时，我们发现这一比例几乎完全相同，因为特斯拉6400亿美元的市值约为9倍。蔚来的市值为720亿美元。在类似的增长率下，这是完全有道理的，但目前看来蔚来可能是更好的交易，因为它的估值相当，同时产生更好的增长。在未来几个季度尤其如此，预计特斯拉的增长将放缓：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a986ea65130206f99961a46ce6cfed55\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Tesla is forecasted to grow its revenue from $49 billion in 2021 to $83 billion in 2023, for an annual growth rate of 30%. NIO, meanwhile, is expected to see its revenue explode upwards from $5.4 billion to $12.8 billion between 2021 and 2023, for an annual growth rate of 54%. NIO is thus expected to grow way faster than Tesla over the next two years, on a relative basis. This shouldn't be a surprise, to be honest, as the law of large numbers dictates that maintaining massive growth rates becomes increasingly hard for a company the bigger it gets, and Tesla seems to have hit that point by now -- adding 50%+ a year to its top line will not be possible forever. This isn't even necessarily Tesla's fault, in fact, many high-quality growth companies have experienced the same. But investors should still consider this important fact -- Tesla's growth in coming years will be less exciting compared to what we have seen in the past, and peers, such as NIO, are growing faster.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉的收入预计将从2021年的490亿美元增长到2023年的830亿美元，年增长率为30%。与此同时，蔚来的收入预计将在2021年至2023年间从54亿美元猛增至128亿美元，年增长率为54%。因此，相对而言，预计未来两年蔚来的增长速度将远远快于特斯拉。老实说，这并不奇怪，因为大数定律表明，对于一家规模越大的公司来说，保持大幅增长率就变得越来越困难，而特斯拉现在似乎已经达到了这一点——每年增加50%以上的收入将永远不可能。这甚至不一定是特斯拉的错，事实上，许多优质成长型公司都经历过同样的事情。但投资者仍应考虑这一重要事实——与我们过去看到的相比，特斯拉未来几年的增长将不那么令人兴奋，而蔚来等同行的增长速度更快。</blockquote></p><p> The same holds true when we take a longer-term view. Revenue estimates for 2025 rest at$22.6 billionfor NIO, up another 80% from the 2023 estimate, and up 320% from what analysts are forecasting for 2021. Tesla, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate revenues of $122.5 billion in 2025 -- a large number, but up by a comparatively weak 48% from 2023, and up by a total of 150% versus 2021. Between 2021 and 2025, NIO will thus 4x its revenue, while Tesla will 2.5x its revenue in the same time span -- a meaningful difference that should, all else equal, allow for a premium valuation for NIO, in the same way Tesla deserves a premium valuation versus legacy players such as Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY).</p><p><blockquote>当我们从长远来看时，情况也是如此。蔚来2025年的收入预期为226亿美元，比2023年的预期再增长80%，比分析师对2021年的预测增长320%。与此同时，特斯拉预计2025年的收入将达到1,225亿美元，这是一个很大的数字，但比2023年增长了48%，比2021年总共增长了150%。因此，在2021年至2025年间，蔚来的收入将增加4倍，而特斯拉的收入将在同一时期增加2.5倍——在其他条件相同的情况下，这是一个有意义的差异，应该允许蔚来获得溢价估值，就像特斯拉一样。与大众汽车（OTCPK：VWAGY）等传统企业相比，它值得获得溢价估值。</blockquote></p><p> Looking at revenue estimates for 2025 relative to how the two companies are valued today, we see that NIO trades at 3.2x 2025 sales, while the 2025 sales multiple for Tesla is 5.2. For a long-term oriented investor, NIO thus seems like the better value today, thanks to the fact that it is trading at a significantly lower sales multiple when we take a look into the future. This does not necessarily mean that NIO is cheap, however, as even a 3.2x 2025 sales multiple is relatively high compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. NIO is looking less expensive than Tesla, however, even if its shares are not cheap on an absolute basis.</p><p><blockquote>相对于两家公司目前的估值来看2025年的收入预期，我们发现蔚来的市盈率为2025年销售额的3.2倍，而特斯拉2025年的销售额倍数为5.2倍。因此，对于长期投资者来说，蔚来今天似乎更有价值，因为当我们展望未来时，它的销售倍数要低得多。然而，这并不一定意味着蔚来很便宜，因为与传统汽车公司的估值相比，即使2025年3.2倍的销售倍数也相对较高。然而，蔚来看起来比特斯拉便宜，尽管其股价绝对并不便宜。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Can NIO Be Worth As Much As Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来能和特斯拉一样值钱吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that depends on what time frame you are looking at. Today, NIO is significantly smaller than Tesla and thus rightfully trades at a way smaller market cap. It should also be noted that there is no guarantee that Tesla's shares are a great example of how an EV company should be valued -- it is, at least, possible that its shares are significantly&nbsp;overpriced&nbsp;today, I personally believe that as well (Note that some will argue that shares are&nbsp;underpriced, which is also among the possibilities, although I do not hold that belief personally).</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案取决于你所关注的时间框架。如今，蔚来的规模明显小于特斯拉，因此其市值也相应地小得多。还应该指出的是，不能保证特斯拉的股票是电动汽车公司应该如何估值的一个很好的例子——至少，它的股票今天有可能被严重高估，我个人也相信这一点（请注意，有些人会认为股票定价过低，这也是一种可能性，尽管我个人并不持有这种信念）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> When we do, for a moment, assume that Tesla is correctly valued today and that EV companies do deserve a market cap in the $600 billion range when they sell about 800,000 vehicles a year, then NIO could eventually hit that as well, although not in the near term. NIO will sell about 90,000 vehicles this year, and that amount should grow to about 400,000 in 2025. If NIO were to grow its sales by 15% a year beyond that point, it could sell around 800,000 cars in 2030, or 9 years from now. If one wants to assume faster growth, the 800,000 vehicles a year line could also be crossed before 2030, e.g. in 2028 or 2029. If we do go with 2030 for now, then NIO could, at a similar deliveries-to-market capitalization ratio to Tesla, be valued at $600+ billion in 2030. In other words, NIO could be worth as much as Tesla (today) in nine years, when we assume that current growth projections are realistic and that a Tesla-like valuation is appropriate. Those are two major ifs, of course, and especially the second point is far from certain, I believe. I personally would not be too surprised to see Tesla's valuation compress, and thus NIO could trade well below the $600 billion market cap level in 2030, even if it continues to grow meaningfully. It is also possible that NIO's growth disappoints and that current projections are too bullish, although I think that NIO is well-positioned for growth thanks to its unique BaaS model and its strong brand that is especially well-recognized in its home market.</p><p><blockquote>当我们暂时假设特斯拉今天的估值是正确的，并且电动汽车公司每年销售约80万辆汽车时确实应该获得6000亿美元的市值时，那么蔚来最终也可能达到这一目标，尽管不是在短期内。蔚来今年将销售约9万辆汽车，2025年这一数字将增长至约40万辆。如果蔚来的销量在此之后每年增长15%，那么到2030年（即9年后），它可能会售出约80万辆汽车。如果想要更快的增长，也可以在2030年之前跨越每年80万辆汽车的界限，例如2028年或2029年。如果我们现在确实选择2030年，那么按照与特斯拉类似的交付量与市值比率，蔚来到2030年的估值可能会超过6000亿美元。换句话说，如果我们假设当前的增长预测是现实的，并且类似特斯拉的估值是合适的，那么九年后蔚来的价值可能会与特斯拉（今天）一样高。当然，这是两个主要的如果，尤其是第二点，我认为还远未确定。我个人不会对特斯拉的估值压缩感到太惊讶，因此蔚来的市值在2030年可能远低于6000亿美元的水平，即使它继续大幅增长。蔚来的增长也有可能令人失望，目前的预测过于乐观，尽管我认为蔚来凭借其独特的BaaS模式和在国内市场特别受认可的强大品牌，处于良好的增长地位。</blockquote></p><p> It should also be noted that Tesla's market cap in 2030 could be very different from $600 billion, thus even in case NIO hits that level, it is not at all guaranteed that the two companies will have a similar market cap. Tesla might be valued at a way higher valuation by then, e.g. if the ARK model is right (something I personally think is unlikely). To answer the above question, one could thus say that NIO might be worth hundreds of billions of dollars, like Tesla, in 8-10 years, but that is not at all guaranteed. And even if that were to happen, Tesla might be worth significantly more by then.</p><p><blockquote>还应该指出的是，特斯拉2030年的市值可能与6000亿美元有很大不同，因此即使蔚来达到这一水平，也不能保证两家公司的市值会相似。到那时，特斯拉的估值可能会高得多，例如如果方舟模型是正确的（我个人认为不太可能）。为了回答上述问题，人们可以说，蔚来可能在8-10年内像特斯拉一样价值数千亿美元，但这根本不能保证。即使这种情况发生，到那时特斯拉的价值也可能会高得多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO A Good Stock To Buy Or Sell Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来现在是买入或卖出的好股票吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> When considering NIO as an investment, it doesn't really matter all that much whether it will become as large or highly valued as Tesla eventually. Instead, investors should ask themselves what total returns they can expect over the next couple of years, and whether those expected returns are high enough relative to the risks in NIO's business model. Regarding those risks, one should mention the fact that the company isn't profitable yet, which means that NIO is dependent on cash on its balance sheet for growth investments. On top of that, competition in the EV space is growing, and market share battles could pressure margins in coming years, although NIO seems relatively well-positioned thanks to its battery-swapping, which is, I believe, a strong USP. Last but not least, the company's dependence on its home market China is a potential risk that should be kept in mind, although it should also be noted that, for now, it seems like the Chinese government is very accommodating to Chinese EV companies.</p><p><blockquote>当将蔚来视为一项投资时，它最终是否会变得像特斯拉一样庞大或估值很高并不重要。相反，投资者应该问自己，未来几年他们可以预期的总回报是多少，以及相对于蔚来商业模式的风险，这些预期回报是否足够高。关于这些风险，应该提到的事实是，该公司尚未盈利，这意味着蔚来依赖其资产负债表上的现金进行增长投资。最重要的是，电动汽车领域的竞争正在加剧，市场份额之争可能会在未来几年给利润率带来压力，尽管蔚来似乎由于其电池交换而处于相对有利的地位，我认为这是一个强大的USP。最后但并非最不重要的是，该公司对中国本土市场的依赖是一个应该牢记的潜在风险，尽管还应该指出的是，目前中国政府似乎对中国电动汽车公司非常包容。</blockquote></p><p> One could argue that valuations across the whole EV industry are too high, relative to how legacy auto companies are valued. Even those legacy players with attractive EV offerings such as Volkswagen or Ford trade at huge discounts compared to EV pureplays. But if one wants to invest in an EV pureplay, NIO doesn't seem like a bad choice. The company combines a strong brand, a unique BaaS offering, high growth rates, and shares trade at a discount compared to how the EV king Tesla is valued. At a little above 3x 2025 revenue, NIO does not seem overly expensive relative to other EV pureplays, although this still represents a premium versus legacy players, of course. If NIO manages to execute well and continues to roll out new models that are well-received by consumers, its shares could have significant upside potential in the long run. If EV stocks ever become an out-of-favor investment, NIO stock also could have considerable downside, however, this thus is not a low-risk pick. Depending on your risk tolerance, NIO could still be of value if you want a high-growth EV pureplay.</p><p><blockquote>有人可能会说，相对于传统汽车公司的估值，整个电动汽车行业的估值过高。与纯电动汽车相比，即使是大众汽车或福特等拥有有吸引力的电动汽车产品的传统企业，其交易也有巨大的折扣。但如果你想投资纯电动汽车，蔚来似乎是一个不错的选择。该公司结合了强大的品牌、独特的BaaS产品、高增长率，并且与电动汽车之王特斯拉的估值相比，股票交易价格有折扣。与其他纯电动汽车公司相比，蔚来2025年收入略高于3倍，似乎并不算太贵，当然，与传统公司相比，这仍然代表着溢价。如果蔚来能够表现良好并继续推出深受消费者欢迎的新车型，从长远来看，其股价可能具有巨大的上涨潜力。如果电动汽车股票成为不受欢迎的投资，蔚来股票也可能有相当大的下跌空间，然而，这并不是一个低风险的选择。根据您的风险承受能力，如果您想要高增长的纯电动汽车，蔚来仍然可能具有价值。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks<blockquote>蔚来股票会追随特斯拉的脚步吗？这两只电动汽车股票之间需要考虑什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks<blockquote>蔚来股票会追随特斯拉的脚步吗？这两只电动汽车股票之间需要考虑什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-24 09:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Let's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.</li>  <li>NIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.</li>  <li>NIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f749c70c8a2af3e18d5f6cecc72bfbb\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"704\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>ipopba/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>让我们来看看今天的蔚来与特斯拉相比如何，蔚来的独特卖点，以及两家公司的相似之处。</li><li>蔚来是一个高增长的选择，相对于特斯拉的估值，它似乎并不太昂贵。</li><li>然而，蔚来并不是一只低风险股票，它可能并不是每个人的好选择。投资者还应该考虑蔚来与传统汽车公司的估值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ipopba/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO, Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading EV players, and has, through an attractive brand and its unique BaaS offering, attracted a lot of interest from consumers and investors. Today, however, the company is still way smaller than Tesla (TSLA), which is currently leading the global EV market. NIO is focused on its home market right now, which was true when Tesla was a smaller company as well, but NIO will try to grab market share in overseas markets as well. Shares are pricing in a lot of growth already, but if NIO can replicate Tesla's success, that could be more than justified.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来公司（蔚来）是中国领先的电动汽车制造商之一，通过其有吸引力的品牌和独特的BaaS产品吸引了消费者和投资者的极大兴趣。然而，如今，该公司仍然比目前引领全球电动汽车市场的特斯拉（TSLA）小得多。蔚来目前专注于国内市场，当特斯拉还是一家较小的公司时也是如此，但蔚来也将试图在海外市场抢占市场份额。股价已经反映了很大的增长，但如果蔚来能够复制特斯拉的成功，这可能是非常合理的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO And TSLA Stock Prices</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来和特斯拉股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Both companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV pureplays rise rapidly. The combination of growing market share for EVs, accommodating policies such as subsidies for EV purchases, and massive monetary stimulus let shares of NIO and TSLA rise rapidly. NIO is up 245% over the last year, while TSLA is up 101% over the same time. Both companies are currently trading below their all-time highs, however, which were hit in early 2021 before market sentiment for EV pureplays cooled to some degree.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，两家公司都受益于人们对电动汽车日益增长的兴趣，这一趋势导致大多数纯电动汽车公司的股价迅速上涨。电动汽车市场份额不断增长、电动汽车购买补贴等宽松政策以及大规模货币刺激措施相结合，让蔚来和特斯拉的股价迅速上涨。蔚来去年上涨了245%，而特斯拉同期上涨了101%。然而，两家公司目前的交易价格均低于2021年初创下的历史高点，随后纯电动汽车的市场情绪在一定程度上降温。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ff5ce865807df85283775d2293b41af\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Taking a quick look at analyst price targets, we see that Tesla is trading almost perfectly in line with the consensus, whereas NIO trades about 30% below the analyst target. If the analyst community is right, then NIO is a substantially better investment right here, as Tesla is not expected to see its shares rise meaningfully over the next year, whereas NIO has significant upside to the analyst price target.</p><p><blockquote>快速浏览一下分析师的目标价，我们发现特斯拉的交易价格几乎完全符合共识，而蔚来的交易价格比分析师目标低约30%。如果分析师界是正确的，那么蔚来是一项更好的投资，因为预计特斯拉的股价明年不会大幅上涨，而蔚来的股价较分析师目标价有显着上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO Similar To Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来和特斯拉相似吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that question depends on what you focus on. There are similarities between the two companies, but there are also differences. One could thus say that, in some ways, the two are similar, but in others, they are not. Let's look at a couple of things:</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案取决于你关注的是什么。两家公司有相似之处，但也有不同之处。因此，人们可以说，在某些方面，两者是相似的，但在另一些方面，它们不是。让我们看几件事：</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Both companies are focused on the EV space, although Tesla has, over the years, been building out a couple of other businesses as well, such as energy storage. Most of Tesla's revenues are generated through selling electric vehicles, which is also how NIO operates. Both companies are focused on the premium segment of EVs, selling higher-priced vehicles that compete with brands such as BMW, Mercedes, and Lexus. Both companies offer a small range of different vehicles, in Tesla's case those are the well-known S, X, 3, and Y, whereas NIO offers a sedan (ET7), and three SUVs (EC6, ES6, ES8). Despite the fact that NIO is a way smaller company today, the model lineups of the two companies do thus not differ too much.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都专注于电动汽车领域，尽管特斯拉多年来也在发展其他一些业务，例如储能。特斯拉的大部分收入来自销售电动汽车，这也是蔚来的运营方式。两家公司都专注于电动汽车的高端市场，销售与宝马、梅赛德斯和雷克萨斯等品牌竞争的高价汽车。两家公司都提供少量不同的车辆，特斯拉是著名的S、X、3和Y，而蔚来则提供一款轿车(ET7)和三款SUV(EC6、ES6、ES8)。尽管蔚来如今是一家规模较小的公司，但两家公司的车型阵容并没有太大差异。</blockquote></p><p> Both companies offer some type of charging infrastructure to their customers, in Tesla's case, that's the Supercharger network, where Tesla owners can charge their cars with up to 250kW, depending on what version of Supercharger is installed. NIO is following a different approach, offering a battery-as-a-service solution to its customers. NIO owners can get their battery switched out to a fully-charged battery at NIO's stations, a process that takes a couple of minutes and is thus significantly quicker compared to the regular EV charging offered by Tesla and other EV players. BaaS thus has advantages when it comes to the time it takes for a charge/swap, but it should be noted that Tesla's Superchargers are way more common around the world compared to NIO's battery-swapping stations. Rolling out that feature in additional markets will require large capital expenditures, but NIO's offering is a unique selling point compared to what all other EV players, including Tesla, are offering. It remains to be seen whether that will ultimately pay off, but this could become a major advantage for NIO as competition in the EV space is heating up.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都向客户提供某种类型的充电基础设施，就特斯拉而言，这就是Supercharger网络，特斯拉车主可以根据安装的Supercharger版本为汽车充电高达250kW。蔚来正在采取不同的方法，为客户提供电池即服务解决方案。蔚来车主可以在蔚来的充电站将电池更换为充满电的电池，这一过程需要几分钟，因此与特斯拉和其他电动汽车厂商提供的常规电动汽车充电相比要快得多。因此，BaaS在充电/交换所需时间方面具有优势，但应该指出的是，与蔚来的电池交换站相比，特斯拉的超级充电站在世界各地更为常见。在其他市场推出该功能将需要大量资本支出，但与包括特斯拉在内的所有其他电动汽车厂商相比，蔚来的产品是一个独特的卖点。这最终是否会得到回报还有待观察，但随着电动汽车领域的竞争加剧，这可能成为蔚来的一大优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Size, growth, and valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>规模、增长和估值</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The two companies differ significantly in size, both when it comes to revenues and vehicle sales, as well as when it comes to the market value of the two companies. NIO has delivered22,000 vehicles in Q2, up 112% year over year, for an annual pace of around 90,000 vehicles. Tesla, meanwhile, has delivered 201,000 vehicles during Q2, up from 103,000 vehicles delivered during Q2 2020. This is strong growth on a year-over-year basis, although slightly below 100%, and thus below the growth rate that NIO is generating for now.</p><p><blockquote>这两家公司的规模差异很大，无论是在收入和汽车销量方面，还是在两家公司的市值方面。蔚来第二季度交付了22,000辆汽车，同比增长112%，年增长率约为90,000辆。与此同时，特斯拉在第二季度交付了201,000辆汽车，高于2020年第二季度的103,000辆汽车。这是一个强劲的同比增长，尽管略低于100%，因此低于蔚来目前的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla delivers around 9x as many vehicles compared to NIO per quarter, when we look at the market capitalizations of the two companies, we see that the ratio is almost exactly the same, as Tesla's market cap of $640 billion is ~9x as high as that of NIO, at $72 billion. At similar growth rates, that would make perfect sense, but it looks like NIO might be the better deal for now, as it trades at a comparable valuation while generating better growth. This will be especially true in the coming quarters, where Tesla's growth is expected to slow down:</p><p><blockquote>与蔚来相比，特斯拉每季度交付的汽车数量约为9倍，当我们查看两家公司的市值时，我们发现这一比例几乎完全相同，因为特斯拉6400亿美元的市值约为9倍。蔚来的市值为720亿美元。在类似的增长率下，这是完全有道理的，但目前看来蔚来可能是更好的交易，因为它的估值相当，同时产生更好的增长。在未来几个季度尤其如此，预计特斯拉的增长将放缓：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a986ea65130206f99961a46ce6cfed55\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Tesla is forecasted to grow its revenue from $49 billion in 2021 to $83 billion in 2023, for an annual growth rate of 30%. NIO, meanwhile, is expected to see its revenue explode upwards from $5.4 billion to $12.8 billion between 2021 and 2023, for an annual growth rate of 54%. NIO is thus expected to grow way faster than Tesla over the next two years, on a relative basis. This shouldn't be a surprise, to be honest, as the law of large numbers dictates that maintaining massive growth rates becomes increasingly hard for a company the bigger it gets, and Tesla seems to have hit that point by now -- adding 50%+ a year to its top line will not be possible forever. This isn't even necessarily Tesla's fault, in fact, many high-quality growth companies have experienced the same. But investors should still consider this important fact -- Tesla's growth in coming years will be less exciting compared to what we have seen in the past, and peers, such as NIO, are growing faster.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉的收入预计将从2021年的490亿美元增长到2023年的830亿美元，年增长率为30%。与此同时，蔚来的收入预计将在2021年至2023年间从54亿美元猛增至128亿美元，年增长率为54%。因此，相对而言，预计未来两年蔚来的增长速度将远远快于特斯拉。老实说，这并不奇怪，因为大数定律表明，对于一家规模越大的公司来说，保持大幅增长率就变得越来越困难，而特斯拉现在似乎已经达到了这一点——每年增加50%以上的收入将永远不可能。这甚至不一定是特斯拉的错，事实上，许多优质成长型公司都经历过同样的事情。但投资者仍应考虑这一重要事实——与我们过去看到的相比，特斯拉未来几年的增长将不那么令人兴奋，而蔚来等同行的增长速度更快。</blockquote></p><p> The same holds true when we take a longer-term view. Revenue estimates for 2025 rest at$22.6 billionfor NIO, up another 80% from the 2023 estimate, and up 320% from what analysts are forecasting for 2021. Tesla, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate revenues of $122.5 billion in 2025 -- a large number, but up by a comparatively weak 48% from 2023, and up by a total of 150% versus 2021. Between 2021 and 2025, NIO will thus 4x its revenue, while Tesla will 2.5x its revenue in the same time span -- a meaningful difference that should, all else equal, allow for a premium valuation for NIO, in the same way Tesla deserves a premium valuation versus legacy players such as Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY).</p><p><blockquote>当我们从长远来看时，情况也是如此。蔚来2025年的收入预期为226亿美元，比2023年的预期再增长80%，比分析师对2021年的预测增长320%。与此同时，特斯拉预计2025年的收入将达到1,225亿美元，这是一个很大的数字，但比2023年增长了48%，比2021年总共增长了150%。因此，在2021年至2025年间，蔚来的收入将增加4倍，而特斯拉的收入将在同一时期增加2.5倍——在其他条件相同的情况下，这是一个有意义的差异，应该允许蔚来获得溢价估值，就像特斯拉一样。与大众汽车（OTCPK：VWAGY）等传统企业相比，它值得获得溢价估值。</blockquote></p><p> Looking at revenue estimates for 2025 relative to how the two companies are valued today, we see that NIO trades at 3.2x 2025 sales, while the 2025 sales multiple for Tesla is 5.2. For a long-term oriented investor, NIO thus seems like the better value today, thanks to the fact that it is trading at a significantly lower sales multiple when we take a look into the future. This does not necessarily mean that NIO is cheap, however, as even a 3.2x 2025 sales multiple is relatively high compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. NIO is looking less expensive than Tesla, however, even if its shares are not cheap on an absolute basis.</p><p><blockquote>相对于两家公司目前的估值来看2025年的收入预期，我们发现蔚来的市盈率为2025年销售额的3.2倍，而特斯拉2025年的销售额倍数为5.2倍。因此，对于长期投资者来说，蔚来今天似乎更有价值，因为当我们展望未来时，它的销售倍数要低得多。然而，这并不一定意味着蔚来很便宜，因为与传统汽车公司的估值相比，即使2025年3.2倍的销售倍数也相对较高。然而，蔚来看起来比特斯拉便宜，尽管其股价绝对并不便宜。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Can NIO Be Worth As Much As Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来能和特斯拉一样值钱吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that depends on what time frame you are looking at. Today, NIO is significantly smaller than Tesla and thus rightfully trades at a way smaller market cap. It should also be noted that there is no guarantee that Tesla's shares are a great example of how an EV company should be valued -- it is, at least, possible that its shares are significantly&nbsp;overpriced&nbsp;today, I personally believe that as well (Note that some will argue that shares are&nbsp;underpriced, which is also among the possibilities, although I do not hold that belief personally).</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案取决于你所关注的时间框架。如今，蔚来的规模明显小于特斯拉，因此其市值也相应地小得多。还应该指出的是，不能保证特斯拉的股票是电动汽车公司应该如何估值的一个很好的例子——至少，它的股票今天有可能被严重高估，我个人也相信这一点（请注意，有些人会认为股票定价过低，这也是一种可能性，尽管我个人并不持有这种信念）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> When we do, for a moment, assume that Tesla is correctly valued today and that EV companies do deserve a market cap in the $600 billion range when they sell about 800,000 vehicles a year, then NIO could eventually hit that as well, although not in the near term. NIO will sell about 90,000 vehicles this year, and that amount should grow to about 400,000 in 2025. If NIO were to grow its sales by 15% a year beyond that point, it could sell around 800,000 cars in 2030, or 9 years from now. If one wants to assume faster growth, the 800,000 vehicles a year line could also be crossed before 2030, e.g. in 2028 or 2029. If we do go with 2030 for now, then NIO could, at a similar deliveries-to-market capitalization ratio to Tesla, be valued at $600+ billion in 2030. In other words, NIO could be worth as much as Tesla (today) in nine years, when we assume that current growth projections are realistic and that a Tesla-like valuation is appropriate. Those are two major ifs, of course, and especially the second point is far from certain, I believe. I personally would not be too surprised to see Tesla's valuation compress, and thus NIO could trade well below the $600 billion market cap level in 2030, even if it continues to grow meaningfully. It is also possible that NIO's growth disappoints and that current projections are too bullish, although I think that NIO is well-positioned for growth thanks to its unique BaaS model and its strong brand that is especially well-recognized in its home market.</p><p><blockquote>当我们暂时假设特斯拉今天的估值是正确的，并且电动汽车公司每年销售约80万辆汽车时确实应该获得6000亿美元的市值时，那么蔚来最终也可能达到这一目标，尽管不是在短期内。蔚来今年将销售约9万辆汽车，2025年这一数字将增长至约40万辆。如果蔚来的销量在此之后每年增长15%，那么到2030年（即9年后），它可能会售出约80万辆汽车。如果想要更快的增长，也可以在2030年之前跨越每年80万辆汽车的界限，例如2028年或2029年。如果我们现在确实选择2030年，那么按照与特斯拉类似的交付量与市值比率，蔚来到2030年的估值可能会超过6000亿美元。换句话说，如果我们假设当前的增长预测是现实的，并且类似特斯拉的估值是合适的，那么九年后蔚来的价值可能会与特斯拉（今天）一样高。当然，这是两个主要的如果，尤其是第二点，我认为还远未确定。我个人不会对特斯拉的估值压缩感到太惊讶，因此蔚来的市值在2030年可能远低于6000亿美元的水平，即使它继续大幅增长。蔚来的增长也有可能令人失望，目前的预测过于乐观，尽管我认为蔚来凭借其独特的BaaS模式和在国内市场特别受认可的强大品牌，处于良好的增长地位。</blockquote></p><p> It should also be noted that Tesla's market cap in 2030 could be very different from $600 billion, thus even in case NIO hits that level, it is not at all guaranteed that the two companies will have a similar market cap. Tesla might be valued at a way higher valuation by then, e.g. if the ARK model is right (something I personally think is unlikely). To answer the above question, one could thus say that NIO might be worth hundreds of billions of dollars, like Tesla, in 8-10 years, but that is not at all guaranteed. And even if that were to happen, Tesla might be worth significantly more by then.</p><p><blockquote>还应该指出的是，特斯拉2030年的市值可能与6000亿美元有很大不同，因此即使蔚来达到这一水平，也不能保证两家公司的市值会相似。到那时，特斯拉的估值可能会高得多，例如如果方舟模型是正确的（我个人认为不太可能）。为了回答上述问题，人们可以说，蔚来可能在8-10年内像特斯拉一样价值数千亿美元，但这根本不能保证。即使这种情况发生，到那时特斯拉的价值也可能会高得多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO A Good Stock To Buy Or Sell Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来现在是买入或卖出的好股票吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> When considering NIO as an investment, it doesn't really matter all that much whether it will become as large or highly valued as Tesla eventually. Instead, investors should ask themselves what total returns they can expect over the next couple of years, and whether those expected returns are high enough relative to the risks in NIO's business model. Regarding those risks, one should mention the fact that the company isn't profitable yet, which means that NIO is dependent on cash on its balance sheet for growth investments. On top of that, competition in the EV space is growing, and market share battles could pressure margins in coming years, although NIO seems relatively well-positioned thanks to its battery-swapping, which is, I believe, a strong USP. Last but not least, the company's dependence on its home market China is a potential risk that should be kept in mind, although it should also be noted that, for now, it seems like the Chinese government is very accommodating to Chinese EV companies.</p><p><blockquote>当将蔚来视为一项投资时，它最终是否会变得像特斯拉一样庞大或估值很高并不重要。相反，投资者应该问自己，未来几年他们可以预期的总回报是多少，以及相对于蔚来商业模式的风险，这些预期回报是否足够高。关于这些风险，应该提到的事实是，该公司尚未盈利，这意味着蔚来依赖其资产负债表上的现金进行增长投资。最重要的是，电动汽车领域的竞争正在加剧，市场份额之争可能会在未来几年给利润率带来压力，尽管蔚来似乎由于其电池交换而处于相对有利的地位，我认为这是一个强大的USP。最后但并非最不重要的是，该公司对中国本土市场的依赖是一个应该牢记的潜在风险，尽管还应该指出的是，目前中国政府似乎对中国电动汽车公司非常包容。</blockquote></p><p> One could argue that valuations across the whole EV industry are too high, relative to how legacy auto companies are valued. Even those legacy players with attractive EV offerings such as Volkswagen or Ford trade at huge discounts compared to EV pureplays. But if one wants to invest in an EV pureplay, NIO doesn't seem like a bad choice. The company combines a strong brand, a unique BaaS offering, high growth rates, and shares trade at a discount compared to how the EV king Tesla is valued. At a little above 3x 2025 revenue, NIO does not seem overly expensive relative to other EV pureplays, although this still represents a premium versus legacy players, of course. If NIO manages to execute well and continues to roll out new models that are well-received by consumers, its shares could have significant upside potential in the long run. If EV stocks ever become an out-of-favor investment, NIO stock also could have considerable downside, however, this thus is not a low-risk pick. Depending on your risk tolerance, NIO could still be of value if you want a high-growth EV pureplay.</p><p><blockquote>有人可能会说，相对于传统汽车公司的估值，整个电动汽车行业的估值过高。与纯电动汽车相比，即使是大众汽车或福特等拥有有吸引力的电动汽车产品的传统企业，其交易也有巨大的折扣。但如果你想投资纯电动汽车，蔚来似乎是一个不错的选择。该公司结合了强大的品牌、独特的BaaS产品、高增长率，并且与电动汽车之王特斯拉的估值相比，股票交易价格有折扣。与其他纯电动汽车公司相比，蔚来2025年收入略高于3倍，似乎并不算太贵，当然，与传统公司相比，这仍然代表着溢价。如果蔚来能够表现良好并继续推出深受消费者欢迎的新车型，从长远来看，其股价可能具有巨大的上涨潜力。如果电动汽车股票成为不受欢迎的投资，蔚来股票也可能有相当大的下跌空间，然而，这并不是一个低风险的选择。根据您的风险承受能力，如果您想要高增长的纯电动汽车，蔚来仍然可能具有价值。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440950-will-nio-stock-follow-tesla-what-to-consider-ev-stocks\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440950-will-nio-stock-follow-tesla-what-to-consider-ev-stocks","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112927800","content_text":"Summary\n\nLet's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.\nNIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.\nNIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.\n\nipopba/iStock via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nNIO, Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading EV players, and has, through an attractive brand and its unique BaaS offering, attracted a lot of interest from consumers and investors. Today, however, the company is still way smaller than Tesla (TSLA), which is currently leading the global EV market. NIO is focused on its home market right now, which was true when Tesla was a smaller company as well, but NIO will try to grab market share in overseas markets as well. Shares are pricing in a lot of growth already, but if NIO can replicate Tesla's success, that could be more than justified.\nNIO And TSLA Stock Prices\nBoth companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV pureplays rise rapidly. The combination of growing market share for EVs, accommodating policies such as subsidies for EV purchases, and massive monetary stimulus let shares of NIO and TSLA rise rapidly. NIO is up 245% over the last year, while TSLA is up 101% over the same time. Both companies are currently trading below their all-time highs, however, which were hit in early 2021 before market sentiment for EV pureplays cooled to some degree.\nData by YCharts\nTaking a quick look at analyst price targets, we see that Tesla is trading almost perfectly in line with the consensus, whereas NIO trades about 30% below the analyst target. If the analyst community is right, then NIO is a substantially better investment right here, as Tesla is not expected to see its shares rise meaningfully over the next year, whereas NIO has significant upside to the analyst price target.\nIs NIO Similar To Tesla?\nThe answer to that question depends on what you focus on. There are similarities between the two companies, but there are also differences. One could thus say that, in some ways, the two are similar, but in others, they are not. Let's look at a couple of things:\nBusiness Model\nBoth companies are focused on the EV space, although Tesla has, over the years, been building out a couple of other businesses as well, such as energy storage. Most of Tesla's revenues are generated through selling electric vehicles, which is also how NIO operates. Both companies are focused on the premium segment of EVs, selling higher-priced vehicles that compete with brands such as BMW, Mercedes, and Lexus. Both companies offer a small range of different vehicles, in Tesla's case those are the well-known S, X, 3, and Y, whereas NIO offers a sedan (ET7), and three SUVs (EC6, ES6, ES8). Despite the fact that NIO is a way smaller company today, the model lineups of the two companies do thus not differ too much.\nBoth companies offer some type of charging infrastructure to their customers, in Tesla's case, that's the Supercharger network, where Tesla owners can charge their cars with up to 250kW, depending on what version of Supercharger is installed. NIO is following a different approach, offering a battery-as-a-service solution to its customers. NIO owners can get their battery switched out to a fully-charged battery at NIO's stations, a process that takes a couple of minutes and is thus significantly quicker compared to the regular EV charging offered by Tesla and other EV players. BaaS thus has advantages when it comes to the time it takes for a charge/swap, but it should be noted that Tesla's Superchargers are way more common around the world compared to NIO's battery-swapping stations. Rolling out that feature in additional markets will require large capital expenditures, but NIO's offering is a unique selling point compared to what all other EV players, including Tesla, are offering. It remains to be seen whether that will ultimately pay off, but this could become a major advantage for NIO as competition in the EV space is heating up.\nSize, growth, and valuation\nThe two companies differ significantly in size, both when it comes to revenues and vehicle sales, as well as when it comes to the market value of the two companies. NIO has delivered22,000 vehicles in Q2, up 112% year over year, for an annual pace of around 90,000 vehicles. Tesla, meanwhile, has delivered 201,000 vehicles during Q2, up from 103,000 vehicles delivered during Q2 2020. This is strong growth on a year-over-year basis, although slightly below 100%, and thus below the growth rate that NIO is generating for now.\nTesla delivers around 9x as many vehicles compared to NIO per quarter, when we look at the market capitalizations of the two companies, we see that the ratio is almost exactly the same, as Tesla's market cap of $640 billion is ~9x as high as that of NIO, at $72 billion. At similar growth rates, that would make perfect sense, but it looks like NIO might be the better deal for now, as it trades at a comparable valuation while generating better growth. This will be especially true in the coming quarters, where Tesla's growth is expected to slow down:\nData by YCharts\nTesla is forecasted to grow its revenue from $49 billion in 2021 to $83 billion in 2023, for an annual growth rate of 30%. NIO, meanwhile, is expected to see its revenue explode upwards from $5.4 billion to $12.8 billion between 2021 and 2023, for an annual growth rate of 54%. NIO is thus expected to grow way faster than Tesla over the next two years, on a relative basis. This shouldn't be a surprise, to be honest, as the law of large numbers dictates that maintaining massive growth rates becomes increasingly hard for a company the bigger it gets, and Tesla seems to have hit that point by now -- adding 50%+ a year to its top line will not be possible forever. This isn't even necessarily Tesla's fault, in fact, many high-quality growth companies have experienced the same. But investors should still consider this important fact -- Tesla's growth in coming years will be less exciting compared to what we have seen in the past, and peers, such as NIO, are growing faster.\nThe same holds true when we take a longer-term view. Revenue estimates for 2025 rest at$22.6 billionfor NIO, up another 80% from the 2023 estimate, and up 320% from what analysts are forecasting for 2021. Tesla, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate revenues of $122.5 billion in 2025 -- a large number, but up by a comparatively weak 48% from 2023, and up by a total of 150% versus 2021. Between 2021 and 2025, NIO will thus 4x its revenue, while Tesla will 2.5x its revenue in the same time span -- a meaningful difference that should, all else equal, allow for a premium valuation for NIO, in the same way Tesla deserves a premium valuation versus legacy players such as Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY).\nLooking at revenue estimates for 2025 relative to how the two companies are valued today, we see that NIO trades at 3.2x 2025 sales, while the 2025 sales multiple for Tesla is 5.2. For a long-term oriented investor, NIO thus seems like the better value today, thanks to the fact that it is trading at a significantly lower sales multiple when we take a look into the future. This does not necessarily mean that NIO is cheap, however, as even a 3.2x 2025 sales multiple is relatively high compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. NIO is looking less expensive than Tesla, however, even if its shares are not cheap on an absolute basis.\nCan NIO Be Worth As Much As Tesla?\nThe answer to that depends on what time frame you are looking at. Today, NIO is significantly smaller than Tesla and thus rightfully trades at a way smaller market cap. It should also be noted that there is no guarantee that Tesla's shares are a great example of how an EV company should be valued -- it is, at least, possible that its shares are significantly overpriced today, I personally believe that as well (Note that some will argue that shares are underpriced, which is also among the possibilities, although I do not hold that belief personally).\nWhen we do, for a moment, assume that Tesla is correctly valued today and that EV companies do deserve a market cap in the $600 billion range when they sell about 800,000 vehicles a year, then NIO could eventually hit that as well, although not in the near term. NIO will sell about 90,000 vehicles this year, and that amount should grow to about 400,000 in 2025. If NIO were to grow its sales by 15% a year beyond that point, it could sell around 800,000 cars in 2030, or 9 years from now. If one wants to assume faster growth, the 800,000 vehicles a year line could also be crossed before 2030, e.g. in 2028 or 2029. If we do go with 2030 for now, then NIO could, at a similar deliveries-to-market capitalization ratio to Tesla, be valued at $600+ billion in 2030. In other words, NIO could be worth as much as Tesla (today) in nine years, when we assume that current growth projections are realistic and that a Tesla-like valuation is appropriate. Those are two major ifs, of course, and especially the second point is far from certain, I believe. I personally would not be too surprised to see Tesla's valuation compress, and thus NIO could trade well below the $600 billion market cap level in 2030, even if it continues to grow meaningfully. It is also possible that NIO's growth disappoints and that current projections are too bullish, although I think that NIO is well-positioned for growth thanks to its unique BaaS model and its strong brand that is especially well-recognized in its home market.\nIt should also be noted that Tesla's market cap in 2030 could be very different from $600 billion, thus even in case NIO hits that level, it is not at all guaranteed that the two companies will have a similar market cap. Tesla might be valued at a way higher valuation by then, e.g. if the ARK model is right (something I personally think is unlikely). To answer the above question, one could thus say that NIO might be worth hundreds of billions of dollars, like Tesla, in 8-10 years, but that is not at all guaranteed. And even if that were to happen, Tesla might be worth significantly more by then.\nIs NIO A Good Stock To Buy Or Sell Now?\nWhen considering NIO as an investment, it doesn't really matter all that much whether it will become as large or highly valued as Tesla eventually. Instead, investors should ask themselves what total returns they can expect over the next couple of years, and whether those expected returns are high enough relative to the risks in NIO's business model. Regarding those risks, one should mention the fact that the company isn't profitable yet, which means that NIO is dependent on cash on its balance sheet for growth investments. On top of that, competition in the EV space is growing, and market share battles could pressure margins in coming years, although NIO seems relatively well-positioned thanks to its battery-swapping, which is, I believe, a strong USP. Last but not least, the company's dependence on its home market China is a potential risk that should be kept in mind, although it should also be noted that, for now, it seems like the Chinese government is very accommodating to Chinese EV companies.\nOne could argue that valuations across the whole EV industry are too high, relative to how legacy auto companies are valued. Even those legacy players with attractive EV offerings such as Volkswagen or Ford trade at huge discounts compared to EV pureplays. But if one wants to invest in an EV pureplay, NIO doesn't seem like a bad choice. The company combines a strong brand, a unique BaaS offering, high growth rates, and shares trade at a discount compared to how the EV king Tesla is valued. At a little above 3x 2025 revenue, NIO does not seem overly expensive relative to other EV pureplays, although this still represents a premium versus legacy players, of course. If NIO manages to execute well and continues to roll out new models that are well-received by consumers, its shares could have significant upside potential in the long run. If EV stocks ever become an out-of-favor investment, NIO stock also could have considerable downside, however, this thus is not a low-risk pick. Depending on your risk tolerance, NIO could still be of value if you want a high-growth EV pureplay.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9,"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1311,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":122116775,"gmtCreate":1624603527297,"gmtModify":1633950633737,"author":{"id":"3583447705533959","authorId":"3583447705533959","name":"Kmj121","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c59f0eacf93cd197ec1e2105b1796413","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583447705533959","authorIdStr":"3583447705533959"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"up","listText":"up","text":"up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/122116775","repostId":"2146274410","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1566,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":174659928,"gmtCreate":1627096614864,"gmtModify":1633767996769,"author":{"id":"3583447705533959","authorId":"3583447705533959","name":"Kmj121","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c59f0eacf93cd197ec1e2105b1796413","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583447705533959","authorIdStr":"3583447705533959"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"leek","listText":"leek","text":"leek","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/174659928","repostId":"1151500518","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1151500518","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1627092269,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1151500518?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-24 10:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tencent was ordered to remove the exclusive copyright of online music<blockquote>腾讯控股被命令删除在线音乐的独家版权</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151500518","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"The China market supervision administration made an administrative punishment decision according to ","content":"<p>The China market supervision administration made an administrative punishment decision according to law, ordering Tencent and its affiliated companies to take measures to restore the state of market competition, such as canceling the exclusive music copyright within 30 days, stopping the payment of copyright fees such as high prepayment, and not requiring the upstream copyright party to give conditions superior to its competitors without justified reasons. Tencent will report the performance of its obligations to the State Administration of market supervision every year within three years, and the State Administration of market supervision will strictly supervise its implementation according to law.</p><p><blockquote>市场监督管理总局依法作出行政处罚决定，责令腾讯控股及其关联公司采取措施，恢复市场竞争状态，如30日内取消独家音乐版权、停止支付高额预付款等版权费用、无正当理由不得要求上游版权方给予优于竞争对手的条件等。腾讯控股将在三年内每年向国家市场监管总局报告义务履行情况，国家市场监管总局将依法严格监督落实。</blockquote></p><p> This case is the first case in which necessary measures have been taken to restore the state of market competition for the illegal implementation of business concentration since the implementation of China's anti-monopoly law.</p><p><blockquote>本案是我国《反垄断法》实施以来，对违法实施经营者集中行为采取必要措施恢复市场竞争状态的第一起案件。</blockquote></p><p> Tencent responded that the company will seriously abide by the decision, strictly implement the regulatory requirements, operate in accordance with the law, earnestly fulfill its social responsibility and maintain benign competition in the market. Tencent will take full responsibility, formulate rectification measures and plans with Tencent music and other affiliated companies within the specified time limit, and complete them completely in accordance with the requirements of the punishment decision to ensure that the rectification is in place.</p><p><blockquote>腾讯控股回应称，公司将认真遵守《决定》，严格执行监管要求，依法经营，切实履行社会责任，维护市场良性竞争。腾讯控股将负全责，在规定时限内与腾讯控股音乐等关联公司制定整改措施和方案，按照处罚决定书要求全面完成，确保整改到位。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tencent was ordered to remove the exclusive copyright of online music<blockquote>腾讯控股被命令删除在线音乐的独家版权</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTencent was ordered to remove the exclusive copyright of online music<blockquote>腾讯控股被命令删除在线音乐的独家版权</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-24 10:04</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The China market supervision administration made an administrative punishment decision according to law, ordering Tencent and its affiliated companies to take measures to restore the state of market competition, such as canceling the exclusive music copyright within 30 days, stopping the payment of copyright fees such as high prepayment, and not requiring the upstream copyright party to give conditions superior to its competitors without justified reasons. Tencent will report the performance of its obligations to the State Administration of market supervision every year within three years, and the State Administration of market supervision will strictly supervise its implementation according to law.</p><p><blockquote>市场监督管理总局依法作出行政处罚决定，责令腾讯控股及其关联公司采取措施，恢复市场竞争状态，如30日内取消独家音乐版权、停止支付高额预付款等版权费用、无正当理由不得要求上游版权方给予优于竞争对手的条件等。腾讯控股将在三年内每年向国家市场监管总局报告义务履行情况，国家市场监管总局将依法严格监督落实。</blockquote></p><p> This case is the first case in which necessary measures have been taken to restore the state of market competition for the illegal implementation of business concentration since the implementation of China's anti-monopoly law.</p><p><blockquote>本案是我国《反垄断法》实施以来，对违法实施经营者集中行为采取必要措施恢复市场竞争状态的第一起案件。</blockquote></p><p> Tencent responded that the company will seriously abide by the decision, strictly implement the regulatory requirements, operate in accordance with the law, earnestly fulfill its social responsibility and maintain benign competition in the market. Tencent will take full responsibility, formulate rectification measures and plans with Tencent music and other affiliated companies within the specified time limit, and complete them completely in accordance with the requirements of the punishment decision to ensure that the rectification is in place.</p><p><blockquote>腾讯控股回应称，公司将认真遵守《决定》，严格执行监管要求，依法经营，切实履行社会责任，维护市场良性竞争。腾讯控股将负全责，在规定时限内与腾讯控股音乐等关联公司制定整改措施和方案，按照处罚决定书要求全面完成，确保整改到位。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"00700":"腾讯控股","TME":"腾讯音乐"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151500518","content_text":"The China market supervision administration made an administrative punishment decision according to law, ordering Tencent and its affiliated companies to take measures to restore the state of market competition, such as canceling the exclusive music copyright within 30 days, stopping the payment of copyright fees such as high prepayment, and not requiring the upstream copyright party to give conditions superior to its competitors without justified reasons. Tencent will report the performance of its obligations to the State Administration of market supervision every year within three years, and the State Administration of market supervision will strictly supervise its implementation according to law.\nThis case is the first case in which necessary measures have been taken to restore the state of market competition for the illegal implementation of business concentration since the implementation of China's anti-monopoly law.\nTencent responded that the company will seriously abide by the decision, strictly implement the regulatory requirements, operate in accordance with the law, earnestly fulfill its social responsibility and maintain benign competition in the market. Tencent will take full responsibility, formulate rectification measures and plans with Tencent music and other affiliated companies within the specified time limit, and complete them completely in accordance with the requirements of the punishment decision to ensure that the rectification is in place.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TME":0.9,"00700":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1574,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":128283783,"gmtCreate":1624518524842,"gmtModify":1634004946847,"author":{"id":"3583447705533959","authorId":"3583447705533959","name":"Kmj121","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c59f0eacf93cd197ec1e2105b1796413","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583447705533959","authorIdStr":"3583447705533959"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I up","listText":"I up","text":"I up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/128283783","repostId":"1170018171","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1170018171","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624518095,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1170018171?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-24 15:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What the Growing Ascendance of Electric Vehicles Means for Oil and Gas Stocks<blockquote>电动汽车的日益崛起对石油和天然气股意味着什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170018171","media":"The Street","summary":"As Tesla and other carmakers ramp up the number of EVs on the road, oil and gas companies are trying","content":"<p>  <b>As Tesla and other carmakers ramp up the number of EVs on the road, oil and gas companies are trying out a host of strategies to compensate.</b>  Electric vehicles (EVs) are poised to run over the oil and gas industry -- at least that’s what it seems like at first glance.</p><p><blockquote><b>随着特斯拉和其他汽车制造商增加道路上的电动汽车数量，石油和天然气公司正在尝试一系列策略来弥补。</b>电动汽车（EV）即将席卷石油和天然气行业——至少乍一看是这样。</blockquote></p><p> By 2050, the vast majority of transport vehicles on the road across the globe are expected to be electric, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). And the transportation industry contributes roughly half of all the business for integrated oil and gas companies, which handle all three aspects of the process from exploration to production to refining, according to Giacomo Romeo, integrated oil and gas analyst with Jefferies Group.</p><p><blockquote>据国际能源署(IEA)称，到2050年，全球道路上的绝大多数运输车辆预计都是电动的。杰富瑞集团(Jefferies Group)综合石油和天然气分析师贾科莫·罗密欧(Giacomo Romeo)表示，运输业约占综合石油和天然气公司所有业务的一半，这些公司处理从勘探到生产再到炼油的所有三个方面。</blockquote></p><p> Electric passenger vehicles such as the Tesla&nbsp;(<b>TSLA</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;Model 3, Nissan’s&nbsp;(<b>NSANY</b>)&nbsp;Leaf, Hyundai’s&nbsp;(<b>HYMTF</b>)&nbsp;Kona Electric and others are expected to account for 86% of all passenger vehicles on the road by 2050,up dramaticallyfrom just 1% last year. Meanwhile, electric vans are expected to soar to 84% of all vans from 0% last year, while 79% of buses and 59% of heavy trucks will be electric, up from 2% and 0%, respectively, according to IEA’s report “Net Zero by 2050: A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector.”</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉等电动乘用车（<b>特斯拉</b>)-获取报告Model 3，日产的(<b>恩萨尼</b>)聆风、现代的(<b>HYMTF</b>)预计到2050年，Kona Electric和其他公司将占道路上所有乘用车的86%，比去年的1%大幅上升。与此同时，根据IEA的报告，电动货车占所有货车的比例预计将从去年的0%飙升至84%，而79%的公共汽车和59%的重型卡车将是电动的，分别高于2%和0%。“2050年净零排放：全球能源行业路线图。”</blockquote></p><p> Catalysts driving this growth in the U.S. are expected to come from car manufacturers increasing both the total number of electric vehicles and the number of models they offer, government agencies offering incentives to consumers to purchase electric vehicles and support from President Biden to increase the use of electric vehicles, according to Edmunds. The automotive research firm released a report this year that found the U.S. electric vehicle market is on track to post record sales this year, with EVs expected to represent 2.5% of U.S. vehicle sales this year, up from 1.9% in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>预计推动美国这一增长的催化剂将来自汽车制造商增加电动汽车总数及其提供的车型数量、政府机构为消费者购买电动汽车提供激励措施以及拜登总统支持增加电动汽车的使用埃德蒙兹表示，电动汽车。这家汽车研究公司今年发布了一份报告，发现美国电动汽车市场今年的销量有望创下纪录，预计今年电动汽车将占美国汽车销量的2.5%，高于2020年的1.9%。</blockquote></p><p> “Price and choice of models are the biggest barriers to buying EVs for consumers,” said Jessica Caldwell, executive director of insights for Edmunds. “You always pay more for EVs and once people start shopping for a car, they start with the intent of buying an EV, but when they begin to compare they see they can get a bigger one with more features than an EV. People equate bigger with better and think it’s a nicer car and more worthy.\"</p><p><blockquote>Edmunds Insights执行董事杰西卡·考德威尔(Jessica Caldwell)表示：“价格和车型选择是消费者购买电动汽车的最大障碍。”“你总是为电动汽车支付更多费用，一旦人们开始购买汽车，他们一开始就打算购买电动汽车，但当他们开始比较时，他们会发现他们可以买到比电动汽车具有更多功能的更大的汽车。人们将更大等同于更好，认为这是一辆更好、更有价值的汽车。”</blockquote></p><p> Recently, consumers’ preference hasswung to larger vehiclesand those tend to be gas-powered. But this year, for the first time, consumers will have the option of purchasing electric trucks, which expands the consumer EV categories beyond just passenger cars and SUVs, Caldwell noted.</p><p><blockquote>最近，消费者的偏好转向了大型车辆，而且往往是汽油动力车辆。但考德威尔指出，今年，消费者将首次可以选择购买电动卡车，这将消费电动汽车类别扩展到乘用车和SUV之外。</blockquote></p><p> By 2030, EV sales worldwide are expected to reach 31.1 million and represent approximately 32% of all new car sales, up from 2.5 million EVs sold last year, according to Deloitte Insights’ “Electric Vehicles Setting a Course for 2030” report.</p><p><blockquote>根据Deloitte Insights的《电动汽车为2030年设定方向》报告，到2030年，全球电动汽车销量预计将达到3110万辆，约占所有新车销量的32%，高于去年电动汽车销量的250万辆。</blockquote></p><p> However, oil and gas companies, especially Royal Dutch Shell&nbsp;(<b>RDS.A</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;and British Petroleum&nbsp;(<b>BP ADR</b>), likely won't go the way of the dinosaurs as demand for their fossil fuels takes a deep dive, analysts say.</p><p><blockquote>然而，石油和天然气公司，特别是荷兰皇家壳牌（<b>RDS.A</b>)-Get报告和英国石油(<b>BP ADR</b>分析师表示，随着对化石燃料的需求大幅下降，可能不会重蹈恐龙的覆辙。</blockquote></p><p> “I’m not sure the transportation industry will get to 100% EV,” said Jamie Hamilton, director and leader in the UK automotive sector strategy and operations for Deloitte. “Passenger cars may get there in the next five to 10 years depending on prices coming down and charging infrastructure rollouts, but freight and heavy vehicles may not” due to their weight.</p><p><blockquote>德勤英国汽车行业战略和运营总监兼负责人杰米·汉密尔顿(Jamie Hamilton)表示：“我不确定交通运输行业能否实现100%电动汽车。”“根据价格下降和充电基础设施的推出，乘用车可能会在未来五到十年内实现这一目标，但货运和重型车辆可能不会”，因为它们的重量。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Dinosaurs Learn a New Dance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>恐龙学会了一种新的舞蹈</b></blockquote></p><p> The oil and gas industry is exploring a number of workarounds to avoid the financial hit from a potential decline in oil and gas demand brought on by electric vehicles. They received a taste of what a big dip in transportation demand would look like when COVID-19 hit and people hunkered down at home versus heading into the office or traveling.</p><p><blockquote>石油和天然气行业正在探索一系列解决方案，以避免电动汽车可能带来的石油和天然气需求下降带来的财务打击。他们尝到了当新冠肺炎来袭时，交通需求会大幅下降，人们会呆在家里，而不是去办公室或旅行。</blockquote></p><p> “Most of the oil and gas industry already had an eye on the changes going on in the larger market for some time, so the growth of EVs is not a surprise. But with the decline in driving and commuting with COVID, this was more stark than people predicted,” said Kate Hardin, executive director of Deloitte Energy, Resources and Industrials research center. “That took commuting down by 40% to 50% in some communities.”</p><p><blockquote>“一段时间以来，大多数石油和天然气行业已经关注更大市场正在发生的变化，因此电动汽车的增长并不令人意外。但随着新冠疫情导致驾驶和通勤量的下降，这种情况更加严重德勤能源、资源和工业研究中心执行董事凯特·哈丁表示：“比人们预测的还要明显。”“这使得一些社区的通勤时间减少了40%到50%。”</blockquote></p><p> Hardin said there has been a lot of discussion among large oil and gas companies to explore new business models, such as developing solar energy, battery technology and energy storage.</p><p><blockquote>哈丁表示，大型石油和天然气公司之间已经进行了大量讨论，以探索新的商业模式，例如开发太阳能、电池技术和储能。</blockquote></p><p> Many fossil fuel companies are investing in power generation, such as renewable energy including solar and wind, Romeo said. Currently, the oil and gas industry is investing 15% of its total capital into power generation, and that is expected to increase to 25% after 2025.</p><p><blockquote>罗密欧说，许多化石燃料公司正在投资发电，例如包括太阳能和风能在内的可再生能源。目前，石油和天然气行业将其总资本的15%投资于发电，预计2025年后这一比例将增至25%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> However, the power generation business has returns of 10% at best, while the downstream business of refining fossil fuels has returns of 10% to 15% and the upstream business of extracting and producing the fuels about 20%, Romeo said. While the oil and gas business generally has higher returns, Rome said it is also far more volatile than the power generation business.</p><p><blockquote>然而，罗密欧表示，发电业务的回报率最多为10%，而提炼化石燃料的下游业务的回报率为10%至15%，提取和生产燃料的上游业务的回报率约为20%。虽然石油和天然气业务通常具有更高的回报，但罗马表示，该业务的波动性也远高于发电业务。</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, the cost of capital for the oil and gas business is higher than that for the renewables industry, due to increasing environmental, social and governance (ESG)- related concerns in the oil and gas business, and declining interest from investors.</p><p><blockquote>此外，由于石油和天然气业务中与环境、社会和治理（ESG）相关的担忧日益增加，以及投资者兴趣下降，石油和天然气业务的资本成本高于可再生能源行业。</blockquote></p><p> “There is always a balance that has to be weighed,” Romeo said.</p><p><blockquote>“总有一个平衡必须权衡，”罗密欧说。</blockquote></p><p> <b>One-Stop Shop Strategy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>一站式策略</b></blockquote></p><p> The larger oil and gas companies are also evaluating the design and use of their retail gas stations as consumers’ needs and behavior are expected to change.</p><p><blockquote>随着消费者的需求和行为预计会发生变化，大型石油和天然气公司也在评估其零售加油站的设计和使用。</blockquote></p><p> Companies with a large network of gas stations are considering transitioning them to EV charging stations, and those that have convenience stores as part of their stations expect to make even more money off of them once they are converted. That’s because charging an EV typically takes significantly longer than filling an internal combustion engine vehicle with gas.</p><p><blockquote>拥有大型加油站网络的公司正在考虑将其转变为电动汽车充电站，而那些将便利店作为加油站一部分的公司则希望一旦转型，可以从中赚更多的钱。这是因为给电动汽车充电通常比给内燃机汽车加满汽油需要更长的时间。</blockquote></p><p> Companies in Europe and the U.S. actually get more revenue from their non-fuel business at their retail stations than they do from fuel, Romeo said.</p><p><blockquote>罗密欧说，欧洲和美国的公司实际上从零售站的非燃料业务中获得的收入比从燃料中获得的收入还要多。</blockquote></p><p> “Oil companies see [that] as people charge their cars, they will spend more time in retail stores drinking coffee, shopping for groceries,” Romeo said. “BP and Shell are already talking about this.”</p><p><blockquote>“石油公司认为，随着人们给汽车充电，他们将花更多时间在零售店喝咖啡、购买杂货，”罗密欧说。“BP和壳牌已经在讨论这个问题了。”</blockquote></p><p> However, people will also be using retail charging stations less often because they can charge their cars at home, at work or at other places that have charging stations.</p><p><blockquote>然而，人们使用零售充电站的频率也会降低，因为他们可以在家里、工作场所或其他有充电站的地方给汽车充电。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Other Survival Strategies</b></p><p><blockquote><b>其他生存策略</b></blockquote></p><p> Biofuels, which are produced from organic material such as corn, other vegetables and animal fats, are another area that oil and gas companies are exploring. For the aviation industry, biofuel is currently being mixed in with traditional jet fuel, but Boeing BA, for example, plans to fly its fleet using 100% biofuel by 2030, according to Reuters.</p><p><blockquote>由玉米、其他蔬菜和动物脂肪等有机材料生产的生物燃料是石油和天然气公司正在探索的另一个领域。据路透社报道，对于航空业来说，生物燃料目前正在与传统喷气燃料混合，但例如波音BA计划到2030年让其机队使用100%生物燃料。</blockquote></p><p> Biofuels have high returns on investment too, Romeo noted. One company, Finland-based Neste (OTC: NTOIY), recently moved away from traditional refining to become the world’s largest renewable diesel producer, generating 30% returns compared to 12% for its traditional refining business.</p><p><blockquote>罗密欧指出，生物燃料的投资回报率也很高。总部位于芬兰的Neste公司（场外交易代码：NTOIY）最近摆脱了传统炼油业务，成为全球最大的可再生柴油生产商，其回报率为30%，而传统炼油业务的回报率为12%。</blockquote></p><p> Integrated oil and gas companies, which handle all three aspects of the process including exploration, production and refining, are also investing in hydrogen and batteries. Because renewable energy sources such as solar and wind do not provide a constant stream of energy, the energy they generate needs to be stored in either hydrogen or batteries for later use.</p><p><blockquote>负责勘探、生产和炼油等流程所有三个方面的综合石油和天然气公司也在投资氢和电池。因为太阳能和风能等可再生能源不能提供源源不断的能量，它们产生的能量需要储存在氢气或电池中以备后用。</blockquote></p><p> Storing energy can be profitable since it allows companies like Shell and British Petroleum to act as energy traders that leverage supply and demand. Shell, for example, plans to increase its power trading business from 255 Terawatts per hour (TWh) now to 560TWh in 2030, Romeo said.</p><p><blockquote>储存能源是有利可图的，因为它允许壳牌和英国石油公司等公司充当利用供需的能源交易商。罗密欧表示，例如，壳牌计划将其电力交易业务从目前的每小时255太瓦(TWh)增加到2030年的560TWh。</blockquote></p><p> The battery energy storage market is expected to reach $19.7 billion by 2027, according to Fortune Business Insights. However, that’s a drop in the bucket compared to the global oil and gas exploration and production market, which is expected to reach an estimated $2.1 trillion this year, according to IBISWorld.</p><p><blockquote>根据《财富商业洞察》的数据，到2027年，电池储能市场预计将达到197亿美元。然而，与全球石油和天然气勘探和生产市场相比，这只是九牛一毛，根据IBISWorld的数据，全球石油和天然气勘探和生产市场今年预计将达到2.1万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Which Oil Companies Could Still Thrive</b></p><p><blockquote><b>哪些石油公司仍能蓬勃发展</b></blockquote></p><p> Potentialwinners in making the transitionas electric vehicles eat into their fossil fuel business include Shell.</p><p><blockquote>随着电动汽车蚕食其化石燃料业务，实现转型的潜在赢家包括壳牌。</blockquote></p><p> “I like Shell -- I believe they see energy transition from the right angle,” Romeo said. “They view themselves as an energy center that delivers lower-carbon energy solutions. They don’t seek to own capacity but instead, they plan to deliver de-carbonization solutions to their customers via a combination of renewable power, carbon credits, and other offsets.”</p><p><blockquote>“我喜欢壳牌——我相信他们从正确的角度看待能源转型，”罗密欧说。“他们将自己视为提供低碳能源解决方案的能源中心。他们并不寻求拥有产能，而是计划通过可再生能源、碳信用额和其他补偿的组合向客户提供脱碳解决方案。”</blockquote></p><p> Edmunds’ Caldwell believes the traditional oil and gas companies have some staying power, despite recent moves by states and nations to limit the sale of new gas-powered vehicles over the next several decades.</p><p><blockquote>埃德蒙兹的考德威尔认为，尽管各州和国家最近采取行动限制未来几十年新型汽油动力汽车的销售，但传统石油和天然气公司仍有一定的持久力。</blockquote></p><p> “Gas-powered vehicles are not going away overnight. The bans are on new vehicle sales and not ownership of gas-powered vehicles. I think there will be a long window for the oil and gas industries to pivot. It is not a flip of the switch and they’re gone,” Caldwell said.</p><p><blockquote>“汽油动力汽车不会在一夜之间消失。禁令针对的是新车销售，而不是汽油动力汽车的所有权。我认为石油和天然气行业将有一个很长的转变窗口。这不是一个翻转开关，他们就走了，”考德威尔说。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610613172068","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What the Growing Ascendance of Electric Vehicles Means for Oil and Gas Stocks<blockquote>电动汽车的日益崛起对石油和天然气股意味着什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat the Growing Ascendance of Electric Vehicles Means for Oil and Gas Stocks<blockquote>电动汽车的日益崛起对石油和天然气股意味着什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Street</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-24 15:01</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>As Tesla and other carmakers ramp up the number of EVs on the road, oil and gas companies are trying out a host of strategies to compensate.</b>  Electric vehicles (EVs) are poised to run over the oil and gas industry -- at least that’s what it seems like at first glance.</p><p><blockquote><b>随着特斯拉和其他汽车制造商增加道路上的电动汽车数量，石油和天然气公司正在尝试一系列策略来弥补。</b>电动汽车（EV）即将席卷石油和天然气行业——至少乍一看是这样。</blockquote></p><p> By 2050, the vast majority of transport vehicles on the road across the globe are expected to be electric, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). And the transportation industry contributes roughly half of all the business for integrated oil and gas companies, which handle all three aspects of the process from exploration to production to refining, according to Giacomo Romeo, integrated oil and gas analyst with Jefferies Group.</p><p><blockquote>据国际能源署(IEA)称，到2050年，全球道路上的绝大多数运输车辆预计都是电动的。杰富瑞集团(Jefferies Group)综合石油和天然气分析师贾科莫·罗密欧(Giacomo Romeo)表示，运输业约占综合石油和天然气公司所有业务的一半，这些公司处理从勘探到生产再到炼油的所有三个方面。</blockquote></p><p> Electric passenger vehicles such as the Tesla&nbsp;(<b>TSLA</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;Model 3, Nissan’s&nbsp;(<b>NSANY</b>)&nbsp;Leaf, Hyundai’s&nbsp;(<b>HYMTF</b>)&nbsp;Kona Electric and others are expected to account for 86% of all passenger vehicles on the road by 2050,up dramaticallyfrom just 1% last year. Meanwhile, electric vans are expected to soar to 84% of all vans from 0% last year, while 79% of buses and 59% of heavy trucks will be electric, up from 2% and 0%, respectively, according to IEA’s report “Net Zero by 2050: A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector.”</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉等电动乘用车（<b>特斯拉</b>)-获取报告Model 3，日产的(<b>恩萨尼</b>)聆风、现代的(<b>HYMTF</b>)预计到2050年，Kona Electric和其他公司将占道路上所有乘用车的86%，比去年的1%大幅上升。与此同时，根据IEA的报告，电动货车占所有货车的比例预计将从去年的0%飙升至84%，而79%的公共汽车和59%的重型卡车将是电动的，分别高于2%和0%。“2050年净零排放：全球能源行业路线图。”</blockquote></p><p> Catalysts driving this growth in the U.S. are expected to come from car manufacturers increasing both the total number of electric vehicles and the number of models they offer, government agencies offering incentives to consumers to purchase electric vehicles and support from President Biden to increase the use of electric vehicles, according to Edmunds. The automotive research firm released a report this year that found the U.S. electric vehicle market is on track to post record sales this year, with EVs expected to represent 2.5% of U.S. vehicle sales this year, up from 1.9% in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>预计推动美国这一增长的催化剂将来自汽车制造商增加电动汽车总数及其提供的车型数量、政府机构为消费者购买电动汽车提供激励措施以及拜登总统支持增加电动汽车的使用埃德蒙兹表示，电动汽车。这家汽车研究公司今年发布了一份报告，发现美国电动汽车市场今年的销量有望创下纪录，预计今年电动汽车将占美国汽车销量的2.5%，高于2020年的1.9%。</blockquote></p><p> “Price and choice of models are the biggest barriers to buying EVs for consumers,” said Jessica Caldwell, executive director of insights for Edmunds. “You always pay more for EVs and once people start shopping for a car, they start with the intent of buying an EV, but when they begin to compare they see they can get a bigger one with more features than an EV. People equate bigger with better and think it’s a nicer car and more worthy.\"</p><p><blockquote>Edmunds Insights执行董事杰西卡·考德威尔(Jessica Caldwell)表示：“价格和车型选择是消费者购买电动汽车的最大障碍。”“你总是为电动汽车支付更多费用，一旦人们开始购买汽车，他们一开始就打算购买电动汽车，但当他们开始比较时，他们会发现他们可以买到比电动汽车具有更多功能的更大的汽车。人们将更大等同于更好，认为这是一辆更好、更有价值的汽车。”</blockquote></p><p> Recently, consumers’ preference hasswung to larger vehiclesand those tend to be gas-powered. But this year, for the first time, consumers will have the option of purchasing electric trucks, which expands the consumer EV categories beyond just passenger cars and SUVs, Caldwell noted.</p><p><blockquote>最近，消费者的偏好转向了大型车辆，而且往往是汽油动力车辆。但考德威尔指出，今年，消费者将首次可以选择购买电动卡车，这将消费电动汽车类别扩展到乘用车和SUV之外。</blockquote></p><p> By 2030, EV sales worldwide are expected to reach 31.1 million and represent approximately 32% of all new car sales, up from 2.5 million EVs sold last year, according to Deloitte Insights’ “Electric Vehicles Setting a Course for 2030” report.</p><p><blockquote>根据Deloitte Insights的《电动汽车为2030年设定方向》报告，到2030年，全球电动汽车销量预计将达到3110万辆，约占所有新车销量的32%，高于去年电动汽车销量的250万辆。</blockquote></p><p> However, oil and gas companies, especially Royal Dutch Shell&nbsp;(<b>RDS.A</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;and British Petroleum&nbsp;(<b>BP ADR</b>), likely won't go the way of the dinosaurs as demand for their fossil fuels takes a deep dive, analysts say.</p><p><blockquote>然而，石油和天然气公司，特别是荷兰皇家壳牌（<b>RDS.A</b>)-Get报告和英国石油(<b>BP ADR</b>分析师表示，随着对化石燃料的需求大幅下降，可能不会重蹈恐龙的覆辙。</blockquote></p><p> “I’m not sure the transportation industry will get to 100% EV,” said Jamie Hamilton, director and leader in the UK automotive sector strategy and operations for Deloitte. “Passenger cars may get there in the next five to 10 years depending on prices coming down and charging infrastructure rollouts, but freight and heavy vehicles may not” due to their weight.</p><p><blockquote>德勤英国汽车行业战略和运营总监兼负责人杰米·汉密尔顿(Jamie Hamilton)表示：“我不确定交通运输行业能否实现100%电动汽车。”“根据价格下降和充电基础设施的推出，乘用车可能会在未来五到十年内实现这一目标，但货运和重型车辆可能不会”，因为它们的重量。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Dinosaurs Learn a New Dance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>恐龙学会了一种新的舞蹈</b></blockquote></p><p> The oil and gas industry is exploring a number of workarounds to avoid the financial hit from a potential decline in oil and gas demand brought on by electric vehicles. They received a taste of what a big dip in transportation demand would look like when COVID-19 hit and people hunkered down at home versus heading into the office or traveling.</p><p><blockquote>石油和天然气行业正在探索一系列解决方案，以避免电动汽车可能带来的石油和天然气需求下降带来的财务打击。他们尝到了当新冠肺炎来袭时，交通需求会大幅下降，人们会呆在家里，而不是去办公室或旅行。</blockquote></p><p> “Most of the oil and gas industry already had an eye on the changes going on in the larger market for some time, so the growth of EVs is not a surprise. But with the decline in driving and commuting with COVID, this was more stark than people predicted,” said Kate Hardin, executive director of Deloitte Energy, Resources and Industrials research center. “That took commuting down by 40% to 50% in some communities.”</p><p><blockquote>“一段时间以来，大多数石油和天然气行业已经关注更大市场正在发生的变化，因此电动汽车的增长并不令人意外。但随着新冠疫情导致驾驶和通勤量的下降，这种情况更加严重德勤能源、资源和工业研究中心执行董事凯特·哈丁表示：“比人们预测的还要明显。”“这使得一些社区的通勤时间减少了40%到50%。”</blockquote></p><p> Hardin said there has been a lot of discussion among large oil and gas companies to explore new business models, such as developing solar energy, battery technology and energy storage.</p><p><blockquote>哈丁表示，大型石油和天然气公司之间已经进行了大量讨论，以探索新的商业模式，例如开发太阳能、电池技术和储能。</blockquote></p><p> Many fossil fuel companies are investing in power generation, such as renewable energy including solar and wind, Romeo said. Currently, the oil and gas industry is investing 15% of its total capital into power generation, and that is expected to increase to 25% after 2025.</p><p><blockquote>罗密欧说，许多化石燃料公司正在投资发电，例如包括太阳能和风能在内的可再生能源。目前，石油和天然气行业将其总资本的15%投资于发电，预计2025年后这一比例将增至25%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> However, the power generation business has returns of 10% at best, while the downstream business of refining fossil fuels has returns of 10% to 15% and the upstream business of extracting and producing the fuels about 20%, Romeo said. While the oil and gas business generally has higher returns, Rome said it is also far more volatile than the power generation business.</p><p><blockquote>然而，罗密欧表示，发电业务的回报率最多为10%，而提炼化石燃料的下游业务的回报率为10%至15%，提取和生产燃料的上游业务的回报率约为20%。虽然石油和天然气业务通常具有更高的回报，但罗马表示，该业务的波动性也远高于发电业务。</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, the cost of capital for the oil and gas business is higher than that for the renewables industry, due to increasing environmental, social and governance (ESG)- related concerns in the oil and gas business, and declining interest from investors.</p><p><blockquote>此外，由于石油和天然气业务中与环境、社会和治理（ESG）相关的担忧日益增加，以及投资者兴趣下降，石油和天然气业务的资本成本高于可再生能源行业。</blockquote></p><p> “There is always a balance that has to be weighed,” Romeo said.</p><p><blockquote>“总有一个平衡必须权衡，”罗密欧说。</blockquote></p><p> <b>One-Stop Shop Strategy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>一站式策略</b></blockquote></p><p> The larger oil and gas companies are also evaluating the design and use of their retail gas stations as consumers’ needs and behavior are expected to change.</p><p><blockquote>随着消费者的需求和行为预计会发生变化，大型石油和天然气公司也在评估其零售加油站的设计和使用。</blockquote></p><p> Companies with a large network of gas stations are considering transitioning them to EV charging stations, and those that have convenience stores as part of their stations expect to make even more money off of them once they are converted. That’s because charging an EV typically takes significantly longer than filling an internal combustion engine vehicle with gas.</p><p><blockquote>拥有大型加油站网络的公司正在考虑将其转变为电动汽车充电站，而那些将便利店作为加油站一部分的公司则希望一旦转型，可以从中赚更多的钱。这是因为给电动汽车充电通常比给内燃机汽车加满汽油需要更长的时间。</blockquote></p><p> Companies in Europe and the U.S. actually get more revenue from their non-fuel business at their retail stations than they do from fuel, Romeo said.</p><p><blockquote>罗密欧说，欧洲和美国的公司实际上从零售站的非燃料业务中获得的收入比从燃料中获得的收入还要多。</blockquote></p><p> “Oil companies see [that] as people charge their cars, they will spend more time in retail stores drinking coffee, shopping for groceries,” Romeo said. “BP and Shell are already talking about this.”</p><p><blockquote>“石油公司认为，随着人们给汽车充电，他们将花更多时间在零售店喝咖啡、购买杂货，”罗密欧说。“BP和壳牌已经在讨论这个问题了。”</blockquote></p><p> However, people will also be using retail charging stations less often because they can charge their cars at home, at work or at other places that have charging stations.</p><p><blockquote>然而，人们使用零售充电站的频率也会降低，因为他们可以在家里、工作场所或其他有充电站的地方给汽车充电。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Other Survival Strategies</b></p><p><blockquote><b>其他生存策略</b></blockquote></p><p> Biofuels, which are produced from organic material such as corn, other vegetables and animal fats, are another area that oil and gas companies are exploring. For the aviation industry, biofuel is currently being mixed in with traditional jet fuel, but Boeing BA, for example, plans to fly its fleet using 100% biofuel by 2030, according to Reuters.</p><p><blockquote>由玉米、其他蔬菜和动物脂肪等有机材料生产的生物燃料是石油和天然气公司正在探索的另一个领域。据路透社报道，对于航空业来说，生物燃料目前正在与传统喷气燃料混合，但例如波音BA计划到2030年让其机队使用100%生物燃料。</blockquote></p><p> Biofuels have high returns on investment too, Romeo noted. One company, Finland-based Neste (OTC: NTOIY), recently moved away from traditional refining to become the world’s largest renewable diesel producer, generating 30% returns compared to 12% for its traditional refining business.</p><p><blockquote>罗密欧指出，生物燃料的投资回报率也很高。总部位于芬兰的Neste公司（场外交易代码：NTOIY）最近摆脱了传统炼油业务，成为全球最大的可再生柴油生产商，其回报率为30%，而传统炼油业务的回报率为12%。</blockquote></p><p> Integrated oil and gas companies, which handle all three aspects of the process including exploration, production and refining, are also investing in hydrogen and batteries. Because renewable energy sources such as solar and wind do not provide a constant stream of energy, the energy they generate needs to be stored in either hydrogen or batteries for later use.</p><p><blockquote>负责勘探、生产和炼油等流程所有三个方面的综合石油和天然气公司也在投资氢和电池。因为太阳能和风能等可再生能源不能提供源源不断的能量，它们产生的能量需要储存在氢气或电池中以备后用。</blockquote></p><p> Storing energy can be profitable since it allows companies like Shell and British Petroleum to act as energy traders that leverage supply and demand. Shell, for example, plans to increase its power trading business from 255 Terawatts per hour (TWh) now to 560TWh in 2030, Romeo said.</p><p><blockquote>储存能源是有利可图的，因为它允许壳牌和英国石油公司等公司充当利用供需的能源交易商。罗密欧表示，例如，壳牌计划将其电力交易业务从目前的每小时255太瓦(TWh)增加到2030年的560TWh。</blockquote></p><p> The battery energy storage market is expected to reach $19.7 billion by 2027, according to Fortune Business Insights. However, that’s a drop in the bucket compared to the global oil and gas exploration and production market, which is expected to reach an estimated $2.1 trillion this year, according to IBISWorld.</p><p><blockquote>根据《财富商业洞察》的数据，到2027年，电池储能市场预计将达到197亿美元。然而，与全球石油和天然气勘探和生产市场相比，这只是九牛一毛，根据IBISWorld的数据，全球石油和天然气勘探和生产市场今年预计将达到2.1万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Which Oil Companies Could Still Thrive</b></p><p><blockquote><b>哪些石油公司仍能蓬勃发展</b></blockquote></p><p> Potentialwinners in making the transitionas electric vehicles eat into their fossil fuel business include Shell.</p><p><blockquote>随着电动汽车蚕食其化石燃料业务，实现转型的潜在赢家包括壳牌。</blockquote></p><p> “I like Shell -- I believe they see energy transition from the right angle,” Romeo said. “They view themselves as an energy center that delivers lower-carbon energy solutions. They don’t seek to own capacity but instead, they plan to deliver de-carbonization solutions to their customers via a combination of renewable power, carbon credits, and other offsets.”</p><p><blockquote>“我喜欢壳牌——我相信他们从正确的角度看待能源转型，”罗密欧说。“他们将自己视为提供低碳能源解决方案的能源中心。他们并不寻求拥有产能，而是计划通过可再生能源、碳信用额和其他补偿的组合向客户提供脱碳解决方案。”</blockquote></p><p> Edmunds’ Caldwell believes the traditional oil and gas companies have some staying power, despite recent moves by states and nations to limit the sale of new gas-powered vehicles over the next several decades.</p><p><blockquote>埃德蒙兹的考德威尔认为，尽管各州和国家最近采取行动限制未来几十年新型汽油动力汽车的销售，但传统石油和天然气公司仍有一定的持久力。</blockquote></p><p> “Gas-powered vehicles are not going away overnight. The bans are on new vehicle sales and not ownership of gas-powered vehicles. I think there will be a long window for the oil and gas industries to pivot. It is not a flip of the switch and they’re gone,” Caldwell said.</p><p><blockquote>“汽油动力汽车不会在一夜之间消失。禁令针对的是新车销售，而不是汽油动力汽车的所有权。我认为石油和天然气行业将有一个很长的转变窗口。这不是一个翻转开关，他们就走了，”考德威尔说。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/what-growing-ascendance-of-evs-means-for-oil-and-gas-stocks\">The Street</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BP":"英国石油","TSLA":"特斯拉","NSANY":"日产汽车","RDS.A":"荷兰皇家壳牌石油A类股"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/what-growing-ascendance-of-evs-means-for-oil-and-gas-stocks","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170018171","content_text":"As Tesla and other carmakers ramp up the number of EVs on the road, oil and gas companies are trying out a host of strategies to compensate.\n\nElectric vehicles (EVs) are poised to run over the oil and gas industry -- at least that’s what it seems like at first glance.\nBy 2050, the vast majority of transport vehicles on the road across the globe are expected to be electric, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). And the transportation industry contributes roughly half of all the business for integrated oil and gas companies, which handle all three aspects of the process from exploration to production to refining, according to Giacomo Romeo, integrated oil and gas analyst with Jefferies Group.\nElectric passenger vehicles such as the Tesla (TSLA) -Get Report Model 3, Nissan’s (NSANY) Leaf, Hyundai’s (HYMTF) Kona Electric and others are expected to account for 86% of all passenger vehicles on the road by 2050,up dramaticallyfrom just 1% last year. Meanwhile, electric vans are expected to soar to 84% of all vans from 0% last year, while 79% of buses and 59% of heavy trucks will be electric, up from 2% and 0%, respectively, according to IEA’s report “Net Zero by 2050: A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector.”\nCatalysts driving this growth in the U.S. are expected to come from car manufacturers increasing both the total number of electric vehicles and the number of models they offer, government agencies offering incentives to consumers to purchase electric vehicles and support from President Biden to increase the use of electric vehicles, according to Edmunds. The automotive research firm released a report this year that found the U.S. electric vehicle market is on track to post record sales this year, with EVs expected to represent 2.5% of U.S. vehicle sales this year, up from 1.9% in 2020.\n“Price and choice of models are the biggest barriers to buying EVs for consumers,” said Jessica Caldwell, executive director of insights for Edmunds. “You always pay more for EVs and once people start shopping for a car, they start with the intent of buying an EV, but when they begin to compare they see they can get a bigger one with more features than an EV. People equate bigger with better and think it’s a nicer car and more worthy.\"\nRecently, consumers’ preference hasswung to larger vehiclesand those tend to be gas-powered. But this year, for the first time, consumers will have the option of purchasing electric trucks, which expands the consumer EV categories beyond just passenger cars and SUVs, Caldwell noted.\nBy 2030, EV sales worldwide are expected to reach 31.1 million and represent approximately 32% of all new car sales, up from 2.5 million EVs sold last year, according to Deloitte Insights’ “Electric Vehicles Setting a Course for 2030” report.\nHowever, oil and gas companies, especially Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) -Get Report and British Petroleum (BP ADR), likely won't go the way of the dinosaurs as demand for their fossil fuels takes a deep dive, analysts say.\n“I’m not sure the transportation industry will get to 100% EV,” said Jamie Hamilton, director and leader in the UK automotive sector strategy and operations for Deloitte. “Passenger cars may get there in the next five to 10 years depending on prices coming down and charging infrastructure rollouts, but freight and heavy vehicles may not” due to their weight.\nDinosaurs Learn a New Dance\nThe oil and gas industry is exploring a number of workarounds to avoid the financial hit from a potential decline in oil and gas demand brought on by electric vehicles. They received a taste of what a big dip in transportation demand would look like when COVID-19 hit and people hunkered down at home versus heading into the office or traveling.\n“Most of the oil and gas industry already had an eye on the changes going on in the larger market for some time, so the growth of EVs is not a surprise. But with the decline in driving and commuting with COVID, this was more stark than people predicted,” said Kate Hardin, executive director of Deloitte Energy, Resources and Industrials research center. “That took commuting down by 40% to 50% in some communities.”\nHardin said there has been a lot of discussion among large oil and gas companies to explore new business models, such as developing solar energy, battery technology and energy storage.\nMany fossil fuel companies are investing in power generation, such as renewable energy including solar and wind, Romeo said. Currently, the oil and gas industry is investing 15% of its total capital into power generation, and that is expected to increase to 25% after 2025.\nHowever, the power generation business has returns of 10% at best, while the downstream business of refining fossil fuels has returns of 10% to 15% and the upstream business of extracting and producing the fuels about 20%, Romeo said. While the oil and gas business generally has higher returns, Rome said it is also far more volatile than the power generation business.\nAdditionally, the cost of capital for the oil and gas business is higher than that for the renewables industry, due to increasing environmental, social and governance (ESG)- related concerns in the oil and gas business, and declining interest from investors.\n“There is always a balance that has to be weighed,” Romeo said.\nOne-Stop Shop Strategy\nThe larger oil and gas companies are also evaluating the design and use of their retail gas stations as consumers’ needs and behavior are expected to change.\nCompanies with a large network of gas stations are considering transitioning them to EV charging stations, and those that have convenience stores as part of their stations expect to make even more money off of them once they are converted. That’s because charging an EV typically takes significantly longer than filling an internal combustion engine vehicle with gas.\nCompanies in Europe and the U.S. actually get more revenue from their non-fuel business at their retail stations than they do from fuel, Romeo said.\n“Oil companies see [that] as people charge their cars, they will spend more time in retail stores drinking coffee, shopping for groceries,” Romeo said. “BP and Shell are already talking about this.”\nHowever, people will also be using retail charging stations less often because they can charge their cars at home, at work or at other places that have charging stations.\nOther Survival Strategies\nBiofuels, which are produced from organic material such as corn, other vegetables and animal fats, are another area that oil and gas companies are exploring. For the aviation industry, biofuel is currently being mixed in with traditional jet fuel, but Boeing BA, for example, plans to fly its fleet using 100% biofuel by 2030, according to Reuters.\nBiofuels have high returns on investment too, Romeo noted. One company, Finland-based Neste (OTC: NTOIY), recently moved away from traditional refining to become the world’s largest renewable diesel producer, generating 30% returns compared to 12% for its traditional refining business.\nIntegrated oil and gas companies, which handle all three aspects of the process including exploration, production and refining, are also investing in hydrogen and batteries. Because renewable energy sources such as solar and wind do not provide a constant stream of energy, the energy they generate needs to be stored in either hydrogen or batteries for later use.\nStoring energy can be profitable since it allows companies like Shell and British Petroleum to act as energy traders that leverage supply and demand. Shell, for example, plans to increase its power trading business from 255 Terawatts per hour (TWh) now to 560TWh in 2030, Romeo said.\nThe battery energy storage market is expected to reach $19.7 billion by 2027, according to Fortune Business Insights. However, that’s a drop in the bucket compared to the global oil and gas exploration and production market, which is expected to reach an estimated $2.1 trillion this year, according to IBISWorld.\nWhich Oil Companies Could Still Thrive\nPotentialwinners in making the transitionas electric vehicles eat into their fossil fuel business include Shell.\n“I like Shell -- I believe they see energy transition from the right angle,” Romeo said. “They view themselves as an energy center that delivers lower-carbon energy solutions. They don’t seek to own capacity but instead, they plan to deliver de-carbonization solutions to their customers via a combination of renewable power, carbon credits, and other offsets.”\nEdmunds’ Caldwell believes the traditional oil and gas companies have some staying power, despite recent moves by states and nations to limit the sale of new gas-powered vehicles over the next several decades.\n“Gas-powered vehicles are not going away overnight. The bans are on new vehicle sales and not ownership of gas-powered vehicles. I think there will be a long window for the oil and gas industries to pivot. It is not a flip of the switch and they’re gone,” Caldwell said.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BP":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,"RDS.A":0.9,"NSANY":0.9,"HYMTF":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1365,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":134932777,"gmtCreate":1622199077599,"gmtModify":1634182934480,"author":{"id":"3583447705533959","authorId":"3583447705533959","name":"Kmj121","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c59f0eacf93cd197ec1e2105b1796413","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583447705533959","authorIdStr":"3583447705533959"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>及时上车","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>及时上车","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$及时上车","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66947a46092de49ba7321364b5cd9b7d","width":"1242","height":"2001"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/134932777","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1429,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":176719983,"gmtCreate":1626915575342,"gmtModify":1633769803857,"author":{"id":"3583447705533959","authorId":"3583447705533959","name":"Kmj121","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c59f0eacf93cd197ec1e2105b1796413","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583447705533959","authorIdStr":"3583447705533959"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/176719983","repostId":"1186011456","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1186011456","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626915117,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1186011456?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-22 08:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Intel Reports Earnings Thursday. Here’s What to Expect.<blockquote>英特尔周四公布财报。这是可以期待的。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1186011456","media":"Barrons","summary":"When Intel reports earnings Thursday after the closing bell, it’s going to have to put in some work to convince investors the past three months have gone well.Expectations for chip companies are already high heading into the June quarter, as investors are looking for a batch of earnings that beat estimates and bullish guidance, according to tech strategist Ted Mortonson. However, shares of Intel  13% during the second quarter as the benchmark PHLX Semiconductor index, or Sox, gained 1.7% But so ","content":"<p>When Intel reports earnings Thursday after the closing bell, it’s going to have to put in some work to convince investors the past three months have gone well.</p><p><blockquote>当英特尔周四收盘后公布财报时，它必须做一些工作来让投资者相信过去三个月进展顺利。</blockquote></p><p> Expectations for chip companies are already high heading into the June quarter, as investors are looking for a batch of earnings that beat estimates and bullish guidance, according to tech strategist Ted Mortonson. However, shares of Intel (ticker: INTC) 13% during the second quarter as the benchmark PHLX Semiconductor index, or Sox, gained 1.7% But so long as nothing like last year’s delay of its advanced manufacturing process happens, Intel can likely continue to ride the big demand around the world for chips through the end of the year.</p><p><blockquote>科技策略师特德·莫顿森(Ted Mortonson)表示，进入第二季度，对芯片公司的预期已经很高，因为投资者正在寻找一批超出预期的收益和看涨指引。然而，英特尔（股票代码：INTC）的股价在第二季度上涨了13%，基准PHLX半导体指数（Sox）上涨了1.7%，但只要不发生像去年先进制造工艺延迟那样的情况，英特尔就可能继续在年底前满足全球对芯片的巨大需求。</blockquote></p><p> Newly installed chief executive Pat Gelsinger has already started to make big changes during the second quarter, doubling down on the company’s manufacturing business for its own chips while at the same time expanding its scope by starting a contract manufacturing unit called Intel Foundry Services. He also instituted major personnel changes and restructured parts of the company’s operations.</p><p><blockquote>新任首席执行官帕特·基辛格(Pat Gelsinger)已经开始在第二季度做出重大改变，加倍加大公司自有芯片制造业务的力度，同时通过成立名为英特尔代工服务(Intel Foundry Services)的合同制造部门来扩大其范围。他还进行了重大人事变动并重组了公司的部分业务。</blockquote></p><p> Investors should parse Intel’s Thursday conference call with executives for clues about the company’s forthcoming strategy, including confirmation or details on the company’s talks for a $30 billion bid for U.S.-based semiconductor manufacturing company GlobalFoundries, which The Wall Street Journal reported last Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该分析英特尔周四与高管举行的电话会议，以寻找有关该公司即将推出的战略的线索，包括该公司以300亿美元收购美国半导体制造公司GlobalFoundries的谈判的确认或细节，《华尔街日报》上周四报道了这一消息。</blockquote></p><p> GlobalFoundries CEOTom Caulfieldappeared to curb expectations that a deal was in the works in an interview with Bloomberg Television late Monday. The Journal reported last Thursday that Global Foundries executives weren’t involved in the talks; the talks were between Intel and the Abu Dhabi government’s Mubadala Investment vehicle that owns GlobalFoundries. A person familiar with how Mubadala operates told Barron’‘s that keeping GlobalFoundries unaware of a potential deal with Intel would be typical of its behavior.</p><p><blockquote>周一晚间，格芯首席执行官汤姆·考尔菲尔德(Tom Caulfield)在接受彭博电视台采访时似乎抑制了人们对交易正在进行中的预期。《华尔街日报》上周四报道称，Global Foundries高管没有参与谈判；谈判是在英特尔和拥有GlobalFoundries的阿布扎比政府穆巴达拉投资工具之间进行的。一位熟悉穆巴达拉运作方式的人士告诉《巴伦周刊》，让格芯不知道与英特尔的潜在交易将是其典型行为。</blockquote></p><p> Overall, the consensus forecast for second-quarter adjusted earnings is $1.07 a share on revenue of $17.8 billion. Intel sold its memory business last year, which the company and investors often exclude from its revenue.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，第二季度调整后收益的普遍预测为每股1.07美元，营收为178亿美元。英特尔去年出售了内存业务，该公司和投资者经常将其排除在收入之外。</blockquote></p><p> For the second quarter, investors will be closely watching Intel’s data center business. At the moment, the consensus forecast for Intel’s second-quarter data-center revenue is a decrease of 17% to $5.9 billion, compared with the year-ago period. Still, it’s expected to rise sequentially, from revenue of $5.6 billion in the first quarter.</p><p><blockquote>第二季度，投资者将密切关注英特尔的数据中心业务。目前，市场普遍预测英特尔第二季度数据中心收入将比去年同期下降17%，至59亿美元。尽管如此，预计第一季度营收为56亿美元，环比仍将增长。</blockquote></p><p> Evercore analyst C.J. Muse wrote in a client note that data-center spending recovery, combined with growth in artificial intelligence and machine learning computing–tasks which are typically performed in data centers–could help boost Intel’s revenue for the segment above his outlook.</p><p><blockquote>Evercore分析师C.J.Muse在一份客户报告中写道，数据中心支出的复苏，加上人工智能和机器学习计算（通常在数据中心执行的任务）的增长，可能有助于将英特尔该领域的收入提高到高于他的预期。</blockquote></p><p> Though there are reports that the pandemic-spurred boom of personal computer sales has started to slow, Susquehanna Financial Group analystChristopher Rollandpredicted that Intel will likely achieve its guidance or perform slightly better based on his checks. At the moment, the consensus estimate for Intel’s PC segment is for second-quarter revenue growth of 4.9% to just under $10 billion.</p><p><blockquote>尽管有报道称，大流行刺激的个人电脑销售热潮已开始放缓，但萨斯奎哈纳金融集团分析师克里斯托弗·罗兰预测，根据他的检查，英特尔可能会实现其指导或表现略好。目前，英特尔PC部门的普遍预期是第二季度收入增长4.9%，略低于100亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Rolland also said that his team has uncovered modest supply constraints for PCs built around chips made by Intel rival Advanced Micro Devices (AMD). If that turns out to be true, it would benefit Intel’s second-quarter PC sales, Rolland said. AMD declined to comment, citing its quiet period ahead of earnings.</p><p><blockquote>魅兰还表示，他的团队发现，围绕英特尔竞争对手超微半导体（AMD）制造的芯片制造的个人电脑存在适度的供应限制。罗兰说，如果事实证明这是真的，这将有利于英特尔第二季度的个人电脑销售。AMD拒绝置评，理由是财报发布前的平静期。</blockquote></p><p> Of the analysts who cover Intel, 18 rate shares Buy, 16 have a Hold rating, and 10 rate it Sell. The average target price is $66.79, which implies a return of 21% from a recent price of $55.</p><p><blockquote>在研究英特尔的分析师中，18名分析师给予买入评级，16名分析师给予持有评级，10名分析师给予卖出评级。平均目标价为66.79美元，这意味着较近期55美元的价格有21%的回报。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Intel Reports Earnings Thursday. Here’s What to Expect.<blockquote>英特尔周四公布财报。这是可以期待的。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIntel Reports Earnings Thursday. Here’s What to Expect.<blockquote>英特尔周四公布财报。这是可以期待的。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-22 08:51</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>When Intel reports earnings Thursday after the closing bell, it’s going to have to put in some work to convince investors the past three months have gone well.</p><p><blockquote>当英特尔周四收盘后公布财报时，它必须做一些工作来让投资者相信过去三个月进展顺利。</blockquote></p><p> Expectations for chip companies are already high heading into the June quarter, as investors are looking for a batch of earnings that beat estimates and bullish guidance, according to tech strategist Ted Mortonson. However, shares of Intel (ticker: INTC) 13% during the second quarter as the benchmark PHLX Semiconductor index, or Sox, gained 1.7% But so long as nothing like last year’s delay of its advanced manufacturing process happens, Intel can likely continue to ride the big demand around the world for chips through the end of the year.</p><p><blockquote>科技策略师特德·莫顿森(Ted Mortonson)表示，进入第二季度，对芯片公司的预期已经很高，因为投资者正在寻找一批超出预期的收益和看涨指引。然而，英特尔（股票代码：INTC）的股价在第二季度上涨了13%，基准PHLX半导体指数（Sox）上涨了1.7%，但只要不发生像去年先进制造工艺延迟那样的情况，英特尔就可能继续在年底前满足全球对芯片的巨大需求。</blockquote></p><p> Newly installed chief executive Pat Gelsinger has already started to make big changes during the second quarter, doubling down on the company’s manufacturing business for its own chips while at the same time expanding its scope by starting a contract manufacturing unit called Intel Foundry Services. He also instituted major personnel changes and restructured parts of the company’s operations.</p><p><blockquote>新任首席执行官帕特·基辛格(Pat Gelsinger)已经开始在第二季度做出重大改变，加倍加大公司自有芯片制造业务的力度，同时通过成立名为英特尔代工服务(Intel Foundry Services)的合同制造部门来扩大其范围。他还进行了重大人事变动并重组了公司的部分业务。</blockquote></p><p> Investors should parse Intel’s Thursday conference call with executives for clues about the company’s forthcoming strategy, including confirmation or details on the company’s talks for a $30 billion bid for U.S.-based semiconductor manufacturing company GlobalFoundries, which The Wall Street Journal reported last Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该分析英特尔周四与高管举行的电话会议，以寻找有关该公司即将推出的战略的线索，包括该公司以300亿美元收购美国半导体制造公司GlobalFoundries的谈判的确认或细节，《华尔街日报》上周四报道了这一消息。</blockquote></p><p> GlobalFoundries CEOTom Caulfieldappeared to curb expectations that a deal was in the works in an interview with Bloomberg Television late Monday. The Journal reported last Thursday that Global Foundries executives weren’t involved in the talks; the talks were between Intel and the Abu Dhabi government’s Mubadala Investment vehicle that owns GlobalFoundries. A person familiar with how Mubadala operates told Barron’‘s that keeping GlobalFoundries unaware of a potential deal with Intel would be typical of its behavior.</p><p><blockquote>周一晚间，格芯首席执行官汤姆·考尔菲尔德(Tom Caulfield)在接受彭博电视台采访时似乎抑制了人们对交易正在进行中的预期。《华尔街日报》上周四报道称，Global Foundries高管没有参与谈判；谈判是在英特尔和拥有GlobalFoundries的阿布扎比政府穆巴达拉投资工具之间进行的。一位熟悉穆巴达拉运作方式的人士告诉《巴伦周刊》，让格芯不知道与英特尔的潜在交易将是其典型行为。</blockquote></p><p> Overall, the consensus forecast for second-quarter adjusted earnings is $1.07 a share on revenue of $17.8 billion. Intel sold its memory business last year, which the company and investors often exclude from its revenue.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，第二季度调整后收益的普遍预测为每股1.07美元，营收为178亿美元。英特尔去年出售了内存业务，该公司和投资者经常将其排除在收入之外。</blockquote></p><p> For the second quarter, investors will be closely watching Intel’s data center business. At the moment, the consensus forecast for Intel’s second-quarter data-center revenue is a decrease of 17% to $5.9 billion, compared with the year-ago period. Still, it’s expected to rise sequentially, from revenue of $5.6 billion in the first quarter.</p><p><blockquote>第二季度，投资者将密切关注英特尔的数据中心业务。目前，市场普遍预测英特尔第二季度数据中心收入将比去年同期下降17%，至59亿美元。尽管如此，预计第一季度营收为56亿美元，环比仍将增长。</blockquote></p><p> Evercore analyst C.J. Muse wrote in a client note that data-center spending recovery, combined with growth in artificial intelligence and machine learning computing–tasks which are typically performed in data centers–could help boost Intel’s revenue for the segment above his outlook.</p><p><blockquote>Evercore分析师C.J.Muse在一份客户报告中写道，数据中心支出的复苏，加上人工智能和机器学习计算（通常在数据中心执行的任务）的增长，可能有助于将英特尔该领域的收入提高到高于他的预期。</blockquote></p><p> Though there are reports that the pandemic-spurred boom of personal computer sales has started to slow, Susquehanna Financial Group analystChristopher Rollandpredicted that Intel will likely achieve its guidance or perform slightly better based on his checks. At the moment, the consensus estimate for Intel’s PC segment is for second-quarter revenue growth of 4.9% to just under $10 billion.</p><p><blockquote>尽管有报道称，大流行刺激的个人电脑销售热潮已开始放缓，但萨斯奎哈纳金融集团分析师克里斯托弗·罗兰预测，根据他的检查，英特尔可能会实现其指导或表现略好。目前，英特尔PC部门的普遍预期是第二季度收入增长4.9%，略低于100亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Rolland also said that his team has uncovered modest supply constraints for PCs built around chips made by Intel rival Advanced Micro Devices (AMD). If that turns out to be true, it would benefit Intel’s second-quarter PC sales, Rolland said. AMD declined to comment, citing its quiet period ahead of earnings.</p><p><blockquote>魅兰还表示，他的团队发现，围绕英特尔竞争对手超微半导体（AMD）制造的芯片制造的个人电脑存在适度的供应限制。罗兰说，如果事实证明这是真的，这将有利于英特尔第二季度的个人电脑销售。AMD拒绝置评，理由是财报发布前的平静期。</blockquote></p><p> Of the analysts who cover Intel, 18 rate shares Buy, 16 have a Hold rating, and 10 rate it Sell. The average target price is $66.79, which implies a return of 21% from a recent price of $55.</p><p><blockquote>在研究英特尔的分析师中，18名分析师给予买入评级，16名分析师给予持有评级，10名分析师给予卖出评级。平均目标价为66.79美元，这意味着较近期55美元的价格有21%的回报。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/intel-earnings-51626886116?siteid=yhoof2\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"INTC":"英特尔"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/intel-earnings-51626886116?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1186011456","content_text":"When Intel reports earnings Thursday after the closing bell, it’s going to have to put in some work to convince investors the past three months have gone well.\nExpectations for chip companies are already high heading into the June quarter, as investors are looking for a batch of earnings that beat estimates and bullish guidance, according to tech strategist Ted Mortonson. However, shares of Intel (ticker: INTC) 13% during the second quarter as the benchmark PHLX Semiconductor index, or Sox, gained 1.7% But so long as nothing like last year’s delay of its advanced manufacturing process happens, Intel can likely continue to ride the big demand around the world for chips through the end of the year.\nNewly installed chief executive Pat Gelsinger has already started to make big changes during the second quarter, doubling down on the company’s manufacturing business for its own chips while at the same time expanding its scope by starting a contract manufacturing unit called Intel Foundry Services. He also instituted major personnel changes and restructured parts of the company’s operations.\nInvestors should parse Intel’s Thursday conference call with executives for clues about the company’s forthcoming strategy, including confirmation or details on the company’s talks for a $30 billion bid for U.S.-based semiconductor manufacturing company GlobalFoundries, which The Wall Street Journal reported last Thursday.\nGlobalFoundries CEOTom Caulfieldappeared to curb expectations that a deal was in the works in an interview with Bloomberg Television late Monday. The Journal reported last Thursday that Global Foundries executives weren’t involved in the talks; the talks were between Intel and the Abu Dhabi government’s Mubadala Investment vehicle that owns GlobalFoundries. A person familiar with how Mubadala operates told Barron’‘s that keeping GlobalFoundries unaware of a potential deal with Intel would be typical of its behavior.\nOverall, the consensus forecast for second-quarter adjusted earnings is $1.07 a share on revenue of $17.8 billion. Intel sold its memory business last year, which the company and investors often exclude from its revenue.\nFor the second quarter, investors will be closely watching Intel’s data center business. At the moment, the consensus forecast for Intel’s second-quarter data-center revenue is a decrease of 17% to $5.9 billion, compared with the year-ago period. Still, it’s expected to rise sequentially, from revenue of $5.6 billion in the first quarter.\nEvercore analyst C.J. Muse wrote in a client note that data-center spending recovery, combined with growth in artificial intelligence and machine learning computing–tasks which are typically performed in data centers–could help boost Intel’s revenue for the segment above his outlook.\nThough there are reports that the pandemic-spurred boom of personal computer sales has started to slow, Susquehanna Financial Group analystChristopher Rollandpredicted that Intel will likely achieve its guidance or perform slightly better based on his checks. At the moment, the consensus estimate for Intel’s PC segment is for second-quarter revenue growth of 4.9% to just under $10 billion.\nRolland also said that his team has uncovered modest supply constraints for PCs built around chips made by Intel rival Advanced Micro Devices (AMD). If that turns out to be true, it would benefit Intel’s second-quarter PC sales, Rolland said. AMD declined to comment, citing its quiet period ahead of earnings.\nOf the analysts who cover Intel, 18 rate shares Buy, 16 have a Hold rating, and 10 rate it Sell. The average target price is $66.79, which implies a return of 21% from a recent price of $55.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"INTC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1138,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160365779,"gmtCreate":1623772985791,"gmtModify":1631886393985,"author":{"id":"3583447705533959","authorId":"3583447705533959","name":"Kmj121","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c59f0eacf93cd197ec1e2105b1796413","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583447705533959","authorIdStr":"3583447705533959"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOS\">$SOS Limited(SOS)$</a>Gg","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOS\">$SOS Limited(SOS)$</a>Gg","text":"$SOS Limited(SOS)$Gg","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160365779","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1296,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":184473919,"gmtCreate":1623723096431,"gmtModify":1631885826791,"author":{"id":"3583447705533959","authorId":"3583447705533959","name":"Kmj121","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c59f0eacf93cd197ec1e2105b1796413","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583447705533959","authorIdStr":"3583447705533959"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BB\">$BlackBerry(BB)$</a>why bb&nbsp;keep sleeping one","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BB\">$BlackBerry(BB)$</a>why bb&nbsp;keep sleeping one","text":"$BlackBerry(BB)$why bb keep sleeping one","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/184473919","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1417,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}