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Kmj121

Kmj121

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2021-07-25

no

Will NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks<blockquote>蔚来股票会追随特斯拉的脚步吗？这两只电动汽车股票之间需要考虑什么</blockquote>

2021-07-24

leek

Tencent was ordered to remove the exclusive copyright of online music<blockquote>腾讯控股被勒令删除在线音乐的独家版权</blockquote>

2021-07-22

ok

Intel Reports Earnings Thursday. Here’s What to Expect.<blockquote>英特尔周四公布财报。以下是可以期待的。</blockquote>

2021-06-25

up

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-24

I up

What the Growing Ascendance of Electric Vehicles Means for Oil and Gas Stocks<blockquote>电动汽车日益增长的优势对石油和天然气股票意味着什么</blockquote>

2021-06-16

$SOS Limited(SOS)$Gg

2021-06-15

$BlackBerry(BB)$why bb keep sleeping one

2021-05-28

$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$及时上车

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09:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Will NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks<blockquote>蔚来股票会追随特斯拉的脚步吗？这两只电动汽车股票之间需要考虑什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112927800","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Let's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.NIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.NIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.Both companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV p","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Let's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.</li>  <li>NIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.</li>  <li>NIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f749c70c8a2af3e18d5f6cecc72bfbb\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"704\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>ipopba/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>让我们来看看蔚来与今天的特斯拉相比如何，蔚来独特的卖点，以及两家公司之间的相似之处。</li><li>蔚来是一个高增长的选择，相对于特斯拉的估值，它似乎并不算太贵。</li><li>然而，蔚来并不是一只低风险股票，它可能不是每个人的好选择。投资者还应该考虑蔚来汽车相对于传统汽车公司的估值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ipopba/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO, Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading EV players, and has, through an attractive brand and its unique BaaS offering, attracted a lot of interest from consumers and investors. Today, however, the company is still way smaller than Tesla (TSLA), which is currently leading the global EV market. NIO is focused on its home market right now, which was true when Tesla was a smaller company as well, but NIO will try to grab market share in overseas markets as well. Shares are pricing in a lot of growth already, but if NIO can replicate Tesla's success, that could be more than justified.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来（蔚来）是中国领先的电动汽车企业之一，通过有吸引力的品牌和独特的BaaS产品，吸引了消费者和投资者的极大兴趣。然而，如今该公司的规模仍然远小于目前引领全球电动汽车市场的特斯拉 (TSLA)。蔚来目前专注于国内市场，特斯拉还是一家小公司时也是如此，但蔚来也将努力在海外市场抢占市场份额。股价已经大幅上涨，但如果蔚来能够复制特斯拉的成功，这可能是完全合理的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO And TSLA Stock Prices</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来和特斯拉股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Both companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV pureplays rise rapidly. The combination of growing market share for EVs, accommodating policies such as subsidies for EV purchases, and massive monetary stimulus let shares of NIO and TSLA rise rapidly. NIO is up 245% over the last year, while TSLA is up 101% over the same time. Both companies are currently trading below their all-time highs, however, which were hit in early 2021 before market sentiment for EV pureplays cooled to some degree.</p><p><blockquote>2020 年，两家公司都受益于人们对电动汽车日益增长的兴趣，这一趋势导致大多数电动汽车纯玩家的股价迅速上涨。电动汽车市场份额不断增长、电动汽车购买补贴等宽松政策以及大规模货币刺激措施相结合，蔚来和特斯拉的股价迅速上涨。蔚来去年上涨了 245%，而特斯拉同期上涨了 101%。然而，这两家公司目前的股价均低于历史高点，该高点在 2021 年初触及，之后市场对电动汽车 pureplays 的情绪有所降温。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ff5ce865807df85283775d2293b41af\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Taking a quick look at analyst price targets, we see that Tesla is trading almost perfectly in line with the consensus, whereas NIO trades about 30% below the analyst target. If the analyst community is right, then NIO is a substantially better investment right here, as Tesla is not expected to see its shares rise meaningfully over the next year, whereas NIO has significant upside to the analyst price target.</p><p><blockquote>快速浏览一下分析师的目标价，我们发现特斯拉的交易价格几乎完全符合共识，而蔚来的交易价格比分析师目标价低约 30%。如果分析师界是正确的，那么蔚来在这里是一个更好的投资，因为预计特斯拉的股价明年不会大幅上涨，而蔚来的分析师目标价有很大的上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO Similar To Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来和特斯拉相似吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that question depends on what you focus on. There are similarities between the two companies, but there are also differences. One could thus say that, in some ways, the two are similar, but in others, they are not. Let's look at a couple of things:</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案取决于你关注的是什么。这两家公司有相似之处，但也有不同之处。因此，人们可以说，在某些方面，这两者是相似的，但在其他方面，它们不是。让我们看几件事：</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Both companies are focused on the EV space, although Tesla has, over the years, been building out a couple of other businesses as well, such as energy storage. Most of Tesla's revenues are generated through selling electric vehicles, which is also how NIO operates. Both companies are focused on the premium segment of EVs, selling higher-priced vehicles that compete with brands such as BMW, Mercedes, and Lexus. Both companies offer a small range of different vehicles, in Tesla's case those are the well-known S, X, 3, and Y, whereas NIO offers a sedan (ET7), and three SUVs (EC6, ES6, ES8). Despite the fact that NIO is a way smaller company today, the model lineups of the two companies do thus not differ too much.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都专注于电动汽车领域，尽管特斯拉多年来也一直在发展其他一些业务，例如储能。特斯拉的大部分收入是通过销售电动汽车产生的，这也是蔚来的运营方式。两家公司都专注于电动汽车的高端市场，销售与宝马、梅赛德斯和雷克萨斯等品牌竞争的高价汽车。两家公司都提供少量不同的车辆，特斯拉是众所周知的 S、X、3 和 Y，而蔚来则提供轿车 (ET7) 和三款 SUV (EC6、ES6、ES8)。尽管蔚来如今是一家规模较小的公司，但两家公司的车型阵容并没有太大区别。</blockquote></p><p> Both companies offer some type of charging infrastructure to their customers, in Tesla's case, that's the Supercharger network, where Tesla owners can charge their cars with up to 250kW, depending on what version of Supercharger is installed. NIO is following a different approach, offering a battery-as-a-service solution to its customers. NIO owners can get their battery switched out to a fully-charged battery at NIO's stations, a process that takes a couple of minutes and is thus significantly quicker compared to the regular EV charging offered by Tesla and other EV players. BaaS thus has advantages when it comes to the time it takes for a charge/swap, but it should be noted that Tesla's Superchargers are way more common around the world compared to NIO's battery-swapping stations. Rolling out that feature in additional markets will require large capital expenditures, but NIO's offering is a unique selling point compared to what all other EV players, including Tesla, are offering. It remains to be seen whether that will ultimately pay off, but this could become a major advantage for NIO as competition in the EV space is heating up.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都为客户提供某种类型的充电基础设施，就特斯拉而言，这就是增压器网络，特斯拉车主可以在其中为汽车充电，功率高达 250kW，具体取决于安装的增压器版本。蔚来正在采取不同的方法，为客户提供电池即服务解决方案。蔚来车主可以在蔚来充电站将电池更换为充满电的电池，这一过程只需几分钟，因此与特斯拉和其他电动汽车制造商提供的常规电动汽车充电相比要快得多。因此，BaaS在充电/更换时间方面具有优势，但应该注意的是，与蔚来的换电站相比，特斯拉的超级充电站在世界各地更为常见。在其他市场推出该功能将需要大量资本支出，但与包括特斯拉在内的所有其他电动汽车厂商所提供的产品相比，蔚来汽车的产品是一个独特的卖点。这是否最终会带来回报还有待观察，但随着电动汽车领域的竞争日益激烈，这可能成为蔚来的一大优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Size, growth, and valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>规模、增长和估值</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The two companies differ significantly in size, both when it comes to revenues and vehicle sales, as well as when it comes to the market value of the two companies. NIO has delivered22,000 vehicles in Q2, up 112% year over year, for an annual pace of around 90,000 vehicles. Tesla, meanwhile, has delivered 201,000 vehicles during Q2, up from 103,000 vehicles delivered during Q2 2020. This is strong growth on a year-over-year basis, although slightly below 100%, and thus below the growth rate that NIO is generating for now.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司的规模差异很大，无论是在收入和汽车销量方面，还是在两家公司的市值方面。蔚来第二季度交付了22,000辆汽车，同比增长112%，年增长率约为90,000辆。与此同时，特斯拉在第二季度交付了 201,000 辆汽车，高于 2020 年第二季度的 103,000 辆汽车。这是同比的强劲增长，尽管略低于 100%，因此低于蔚来目前的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla delivers around 9x as many vehicles compared to NIO per quarter, when we look at the market capitalizations of the two companies, we see that the ratio is almost exactly the same, as Tesla's market cap of $640 billion is ~9x as high as that of NIO, at $72 billion. At similar growth rates, that would make perfect sense, but it looks like NIO might be the better deal for now, as it trades at a comparable valuation while generating better growth. This will be especially true in the coming quarters, where Tesla's growth is expected to slow down:</p><p><blockquote>与蔚来相比，特斯拉每季度交付的汽车数量约为 9 倍，当我们查看两家公司的市值时，我们会发现这一比例几乎完全相同，因为特斯拉 6400 亿美元的市值约为 9 倍蔚来的 720 亿美元。在类似的增长率下，这将是完全有意义的，但看起来蔚来目前可能是更好的交易，因为它的估值相当，同时产生了更好的增长。未来几个季度尤其如此，特斯拉的增长预计将放缓：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a986ea65130206f99961a46ce6cfed55\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Tesla is forecasted to grow its revenue from $49 billion in 2021 to $83 billion in 2023, for an annual growth rate of 30%. NIO, meanwhile, is expected to see its revenue explode upwards from $5.4 billion to $12.8 billion between 2021 and 2023, for an annual growth rate of 54%. NIO is thus expected to grow way faster than Tesla over the next two years, on a relative basis. This shouldn't be a surprise, to be honest, as the law of large numbers dictates that maintaining massive growth rates becomes increasingly hard for a company the bigger it gets, and Tesla seems to have hit that point by now -- adding 50%+ a year to its top line will not be possible forever. This isn't even necessarily Tesla's fault, in fact, many high-quality growth companies have experienced the same. But investors should still consider this important fact -- Tesla's growth in coming years will be less exciting compared to what we have seen in the past, and peers, such as NIO, are growing faster.</p><p><blockquote>预计特斯拉的收入将从2021年的490亿美元增长到2023年的830亿美元，年增长率为30%。与此同时，蔚来预计其收入将在 2021 年至 2023 年间从 54 亿美元激增至 128 亿美元，年增长率为 54%。因此，相对而言，预计未来两年蔚来的增长速度将远远超过特斯拉。老实说，这并不奇怪，因为大数定律表明，对于一家公司来说，保持巨大的增长率变得越来越困难，而特斯拉现在似乎已经达到了这一点——每年增加 50% 以上的收入是不可能永远的。这甚至不一定是特斯拉的错，事实上，许多优质成长型公司都经历过同样的事情。但投资者仍然应该考虑这个重要事实——与我们过去看到的相比，特斯拉未来几年的增长将不那么令人兴奋，而蔚来等同行的增长速度更快。</blockquote></p><p> The same holds true when we take a longer-term view. Revenue estimates for 2025 rest at$22.6 billionfor NIO, up another 80% from the 2023 estimate, and up 320% from what analysts are forecasting for 2021. Tesla, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate revenues of $122.5 billion in 2025 -- a large number, but up by a comparatively weak 48% from 2023, and up by a total of 150% versus 2021. Between 2021 and 2025, NIO will thus 4x its revenue, while Tesla will 2.5x its revenue in the same time span -- a meaningful difference that should, all else equal, allow for a premium valuation for NIO, in the same way Tesla deserves a premium valuation versus legacy players such as Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY).</p><p><blockquote>当我们从长远来看时，情况也是如此。蔚来 2025 年收入预期为 226 亿美元，比 2023 年预期再增长 80%，比分析师对 2021 年的预测增长 320%。与此同时，特斯拉预计 2025 年收入将达到 1225 亿美元，这是一个很大的数字，但比 2023 年增长相对较弱的 48%，比 2021 年总共增长 150%。因此，在 2021 年至 2025 年间，蔚来的收入将增长 4 倍，而特斯拉的收入将增长 2.5 倍——在其他条件相同的情况下，这是一个有意义的差异，应该可以让蔚来获得溢价估值，就像特斯拉值得拥有与大众汽车等传统参与者相比的溢价估值（OTCPK：VWAGY）。</blockquote></p><p> Looking at revenue estimates for 2025 relative to how the two companies are valued today, we see that NIO trades at 3.2x 2025 sales, while the 2025 sales multiple for Tesla is 5.2. For a long-term oriented investor, NIO thus seems like the better value today, thanks to the fact that it is trading at a significantly lower sales multiple when we take a look into the future. This does not necessarily mean that NIO is cheap, however, as even a 3.2x 2025 sales multiple is relatively high compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. NIO is looking less expensive than Tesla, however, even if its shares are not cheap on an absolute basis.</p><p><blockquote>将 2025 年的收入预测与两家公司目前的估值进行比较，我们发现蔚来的交易价格为 2025 年销售额的 3.2 倍，而特斯拉的 2025 年销售额倍数为 5.2。对于长期投资者来说，蔚来目前似乎更有价值，因为当我们展望未来时，它的销售倍数要低得多。然而，这并不一定意味着蔚来很便宜，因为与传统汽车公司的估值相比，即使是 2025 年 3.2 倍的销售倍数也相对较高。然而，蔚来看起来比特斯拉便宜，即使其股票绝对不便宜。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Can NIO Be Worth As Much As Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来能和特斯拉一样值钱吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that depends on what time frame you are looking at. Today, NIO is significantly smaller than Tesla and thus rightfully trades at a way smaller market cap. It should also be noted that there is no guarantee that Tesla's shares are a great example of how an EV company should be valued -- it is, at least, possible that its shares are significantly&nbsp;overpriced&nbsp;today, I personally believe that as well (Note that some will argue that shares are&nbsp;underpriced, which is also among the possibilities, although I do not hold that belief personally).</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案取决于你所关注的时间范围。如今，蔚来比特斯拉小得多，因此理所当然地以较小的市值进行交易。还应该指出的是，不能保证特斯拉的股票是电动汽车公司估值的一个很好的例子——至少，它的股票今天有可能被严重高估，我个人也相信这一点（请注意，有些人会认为股票价格被低估，这也是可能性之一，尽管我个人并不持有这种信念）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> When we do, for a moment, assume that Tesla is correctly valued today and that EV companies do deserve a market cap in the $600 billion range when they sell about 800,000 vehicles a year, then NIO could eventually hit that as well, although not in the near term. NIO will sell about 90,000 vehicles this year, and that amount should grow to about 400,000 in 2025. If NIO were to grow its sales by 15% a year beyond that point, it could sell around 800,000 cars in 2030, or 9 years from now. If one wants to assume faster growth, the 800,000 vehicles a year line could also be crossed before 2030, e.g. in 2028 or 2029. If we do go with 2030 for now, then NIO could, at a similar deliveries-to-market capitalization ratio to Tesla, be valued at $600+ billion in 2030. In other words, NIO could be worth as much as Tesla (today) in nine years, when we assume that current growth projections are realistic and that a Tesla-like valuation is appropriate. Those are two major ifs, of course, and especially the second point is far from certain, I believe. I personally would not be too surprised to see Tesla's valuation compress, and thus NIO could trade well below the $600 billion market cap level in 2030, even if it continues to grow meaningfully. It is also possible that NIO's growth disappoints and that current projections are too bullish, although I think that NIO is well-positioned for growth thanks to its unique BaaS model and its strong brand that is especially well-recognized in its home market.</p><p><blockquote>当我们暂时假设特斯拉今天的估值是正确的，并且电动汽车公司每年销售约 80 万辆汽车时，确实应该获得 6000 亿美元左右的市值，那么蔚来最终也可能达到这个目标，尽管不是在短期内。蔚来今年将销售约 9 万辆汽车，到 2025 年这一数字应该会增长到约 40 万辆。如果蔚来的销量在这一点后每年增长 15%，那么到 2030 年（即 9 年后），它可能会售出约 80 万辆汽车。如果想要假设更快的增长，每年 80 万辆汽车的大关也可能在 2030 年之前跨过，例如在 2028 年或 2029 年。如果我们现在真的选择 2030 年，那么按照与特斯拉类似的交付量与市值比率，蔚来到 2030 年的估值可能会超过 6000 亿美元。换句话说，如果我们假设当前的增长预测是现实的，并且类似特斯拉的估值是合适的，那么九年后蔚来的价值可能与特斯拉（今天）一样高。当然，这是两个主要的如果，尤其是第二点，我相信还远未确定。就我个人而言，看到特斯拉的估值压缩不会太惊讶，因此蔚来在 2030 年的市值可能远低于 6000 亿美元的水平，即使它继续大幅增长。蔚来汽车的增长也有可能令人失望，目前的预测过于乐观，尽管我认为蔚来凭借其独特的BaaS模式和在国内市场尤其知名的强大品牌，处于有利的增长位置。</blockquote></p><p> It should also be noted that Tesla's market cap in 2030 could be very different from $600 billion, thus even in case NIO hits that level, it is not at all guaranteed that the two companies will have a similar market cap. Tesla might be valued at a way higher valuation by then, e.g. if the ARK model is right (something I personally think is unlikely). To answer the above question, one could thus say that NIO might be worth hundreds of billions of dollars, like Tesla, in 8-10 years, but that is not at all guaranteed. And even if that were to happen, Tesla might be worth significantly more by then.</p><p><blockquote>还需要注意的是，特斯拉2030年的市值可能与6000亿美元有很大不同，因此即使蔚来达到这个水平，也根本不能保证两家公司的市值相似。到那时，特斯拉的估值可能会更高，例如，如果方舟模型是正确的（我个人认为不太可能）。为了回答上述问题，人们可以说，蔚来可能在8-10年内价值数千亿美元，就像特斯拉一样，但这根本不能保证。即使发生了这种情况，到那时特斯拉的价值可能会高得多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO A Good Stock To Buy Or Sell Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来现在是买入还是卖出的好股票？</b></blockquote></p><p> When considering NIO as an investment, it doesn't really matter all that much whether it will become as large or highly valued as Tesla eventually. Instead, investors should ask themselves what total returns they can expect over the next couple of years, and whether those expected returns are high enough relative to the risks in NIO's business model. Regarding those risks, one should mention the fact that the company isn't profitable yet, which means that NIO is dependent on cash on its balance sheet for growth investments. On top of that, competition in the EV space is growing, and market share battles could pressure margins in coming years, although NIO seems relatively well-positioned thanks to its battery-swapping, which is, I believe, a strong USP. Last but not least, the company's dependence on its home market China is a potential risk that should be kept in mind, although it should also be noted that, for now, it seems like the Chinese government is very accommodating to Chinese EV companies.</p><p><blockquote>当将蔚来视为一项投资时，它最终是否会变得像特斯拉一样大或高估值并不重要。相反，投资者应该问问自己，未来几年他们可以预期的总回报是多少，以及这些预期回报相对于蔚来商业模式的风险是否足够高。关于这些风险，值得一提的是，该公司尚未盈利，这意味着蔚来依赖其资产负债表上的现金进行增长投资。最重要的是，电动汽车领域的竞争正在加剧，市场份额之争可能会在未来几年给利润率带来压力，尽管蔚来似乎由于其电池更换而处于相对有利的地位，我相信这是一个强大的卖点。最后但并非最不重要的一点是，该公司对中国本土市场的依赖是一个应牢记的潜在风险，尽管还应该指出的是，目前中国政府似乎对中国电动汽车公司非常宽容。</blockquote></p><p> One could argue that valuations across the whole EV industry are too high, relative to how legacy auto companies are valued. Even those legacy players with attractive EV offerings such as Volkswagen or Ford trade at huge discounts compared to EV pureplays. But if one wants to invest in an EV pureplay, NIO doesn't seem like a bad choice. The company combines a strong brand, a unique BaaS offering, high growth rates, and shares trade at a discount compared to how the EV king Tesla is valued. At a little above 3x 2025 revenue, NIO does not seem overly expensive relative to other EV pureplays, although this still represents a premium versus legacy players, of course. If NIO manages to execute well and continues to roll out new models that are well-received by consumers, its shares could have significant upside potential in the long run. If EV stocks ever become an out-of-favor investment, NIO stock also could have considerable downside, however, this thus is not a low-risk pick. Depending on your risk tolerance, NIO could still be of value if you want a high-growth EV pureplay.</p><p><blockquote>有人可能会说，相对于传统汽车公司的估值，整个电动汽车行业的估值过高。与纯电动汽车相比，即使是大众或福特等拥有有吸引力的电动汽车产品的传统厂商也能享受巨大的折扣。但如果想投资电动汽车 pureplay，蔚来似乎并不是一个糟糕的选择。该公司结合了强大的品牌、独特的 BaaS 产品、高增长率以及与电动汽车之王特斯拉的估值相比折扣的股票交易。蔚来的收入略高于 2025 年的 3 倍，与其他电动汽车纯电动汽车相比似乎并不算太贵，尽管当然，这仍然代表着与传统厂商相比的溢价。如果蔚来能够很好地执行并继续推出深受消费者欢迎的新车型，从长远来看，其股价可能具有巨大的上涨潜力。如果电动汽车股票成为不受欢迎的投资，蔚来股票也可能有相当大的负面影响，然而，这并不是一个低风险的选择。根据您的风险承受能力，如果您想要高增长的电动汽车 pureplay，蔚来仍然很有价值。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks<blockquote>蔚来股票会追随特斯拉的脚步吗？这两只电动汽车股票之间需要考虑什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks<blockquote>蔚来股票会追随特斯拉的脚步吗？这两只电动汽车股票之间需要考虑什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-24 09:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Let's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.</li>  <li>NIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.</li>  <li>NIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f749c70c8a2af3e18d5f6cecc72bfbb\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"704\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>ipopba/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>让我们来看看蔚来与今天的特斯拉相比如何，蔚来独特的卖点，以及两家公司之间的相似之处。</li><li>蔚来是一个高增长的选择，相对于特斯拉的估值，它似乎并不算太贵。</li><li>然而，蔚来并不是一只低风险股票，它可能不是每个人的好选择。投资者还应该考虑蔚来汽车相对于传统汽车公司的估值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ipopba/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO, Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading EV players, and has, through an attractive brand and its unique BaaS offering, attracted a lot of interest from consumers and investors. Today, however, the company is still way smaller than Tesla (TSLA), which is currently leading the global EV market. NIO is focused on its home market right now, which was true when Tesla was a smaller company as well, but NIO will try to grab market share in overseas markets as well. Shares are pricing in a lot of growth already, but if NIO can replicate Tesla's success, that could be more than justified.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来（蔚来）是中国领先的电动汽车企业之一，通过有吸引力的品牌和独特的BaaS产品，吸引了消费者和投资者的极大兴趣。然而，如今该公司的规模仍然远小于目前引领全球电动汽车市场的特斯拉 (TSLA)。蔚来目前专注于国内市场，特斯拉还是一家小公司时也是如此，但蔚来也将努力在海外市场抢占市场份额。股价已经大幅上涨，但如果蔚来能够复制特斯拉的成功，这可能是完全合理的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO And TSLA Stock Prices</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来和特斯拉股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Both companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV pureplays rise rapidly. The combination of growing market share for EVs, accommodating policies such as subsidies for EV purchases, and massive monetary stimulus let shares of NIO and TSLA rise rapidly. NIO is up 245% over the last year, while TSLA is up 101% over the same time. Both companies are currently trading below their all-time highs, however, which were hit in early 2021 before market sentiment for EV pureplays cooled to some degree.</p><p><blockquote>2020 年，两家公司都受益于人们对电动汽车日益增长的兴趣，这一趋势导致大多数电动汽车纯玩家的股价迅速上涨。电动汽车市场份额不断增长、电动汽车购买补贴等宽松政策以及大规模货币刺激措施相结合，蔚来和特斯拉的股价迅速上涨。蔚来去年上涨了 245%，而特斯拉同期上涨了 101%。然而，这两家公司目前的股价均低于历史高点，该高点在 2021 年初触及，之后市场对电动汽车 pureplays 的情绪有所降温。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ff5ce865807df85283775d2293b41af\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Taking a quick look at analyst price targets, we see that Tesla is trading almost perfectly in line with the consensus, whereas NIO trades about 30% below the analyst target. If the analyst community is right, then NIO is a substantially better investment right here, as Tesla is not expected to see its shares rise meaningfully over the next year, whereas NIO has significant upside to the analyst price target.</p><p><blockquote>快速浏览一下分析师的目标价，我们发现特斯拉的交易价格几乎完全符合共识，而蔚来的交易价格比分析师目标价低约 30%。如果分析师界是正确的，那么蔚来在这里是一个更好的投资，因为预计特斯拉的股价明年不会大幅上涨，而蔚来的分析师目标价有很大的上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO Similar To Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来和特斯拉相似吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that question depends on what you focus on. There are similarities between the two companies, but there are also differences. One could thus say that, in some ways, the two are similar, but in others, they are not. Let's look at a couple of things:</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案取决于你关注的是什么。这两家公司有相似之处，但也有不同之处。因此，人们可以说，在某些方面，这两者是相似的，但在其他方面，它们不是。让我们看几件事：</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Both companies are focused on the EV space, although Tesla has, over the years, been building out a couple of other businesses as well, such as energy storage. Most of Tesla's revenues are generated through selling electric vehicles, which is also how NIO operates. Both companies are focused on the premium segment of EVs, selling higher-priced vehicles that compete with brands such as BMW, Mercedes, and Lexus. Both companies offer a small range of different vehicles, in Tesla's case those are the well-known S, X, 3, and Y, whereas NIO offers a sedan (ET7), and three SUVs (EC6, ES6, ES8). Despite the fact that NIO is a way smaller company today, the model lineups of the two companies do thus not differ too much.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都专注于电动汽车领域，尽管特斯拉多年来也一直在发展其他一些业务，例如储能。特斯拉的大部分收入是通过销售电动汽车产生的，这也是蔚来的运营方式。两家公司都专注于电动汽车的高端市场，销售与宝马、梅赛德斯和雷克萨斯等品牌竞争的高价汽车。两家公司都提供少量不同的车辆，特斯拉是众所周知的 S、X、3 和 Y，而蔚来则提供轿车 (ET7) 和三款 SUV (EC6、ES6、ES8)。尽管蔚来如今是一家规模较小的公司，但两家公司的车型阵容并没有太大区别。</blockquote></p><p> Both companies offer some type of charging infrastructure to their customers, in Tesla's case, that's the Supercharger network, where Tesla owners can charge their cars with up to 250kW, depending on what version of Supercharger is installed. NIO is following a different approach, offering a battery-as-a-service solution to its customers. NIO owners can get their battery switched out to a fully-charged battery at NIO's stations, a process that takes a couple of minutes and is thus significantly quicker compared to the regular EV charging offered by Tesla and other EV players. BaaS thus has advantages when it comes to the time it takes for a charge/swap, but it should be noted that Tesla's Superchargers are way more common around the world compared to NIO's battery-swapping stations. Rolling out that feature in additional markets will require large capital expenditures, but NIO's offering is a unique selling point compared to what all other EV players, including Tesla, are offering. It remains to be seen whether that will ultimately pay off, but this could become a major advantage for NIO as competition in the EV space is heating up.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都为客户提供某种类型的充电基础设施，就特斯拉而言，这就是增压器网络，特斯拉车主可以在其中为汽车充电，功率高达 250kW，具体取决于安装的增压器版本。蔚来正在采取不同的方法，为客户提供电池即服务解决方案。蔚来车主可以在蔚来充电站将电池更换为充满电的电池，这一过程只需几分钟，因此与特斯拉和其他电动汽车制造商提供的常规电动汽车充电相比要快得多。因此，BaaS在充电/更换时间方面具有优势，但应该注意的是，与蔚来的换电站相比，特斯拉的超级充电站在世界各地更为常见。在其他市场推出该功能将需要大量资本支出，但与包括特斯拉在内的所有其他电动汽车厂商所提供的产品相比，蔚来汽车的产品是一个独特的卖点。这是否最终会带来回报还有待观察，但随着电动汽车领域的竞争日益激烈，这可能成为蔚来的一大优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Size, growth, and valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>规模、增长和估值</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The two companies differ significantly in size, both when it comes to revenues and vehicle sales, as well as when it comes to the market value of the two companies. NIO has delivered22,000 vehicles in Q2, up 112% year over year, for an annual pace of around 90,000 vehicles. Tesla, meanwhile, has delivered 201,000 vehicles during Q2, up from 103,000 vehicles delivered during Q2 2020. This is strong growth on a year-over-year basis, although slightly below 100%, and thus below the growth rate that NIO is generating for now.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司的规模差异很大，无论是在收入和汽车销量方面，还是在两家公司的市值方面。蔚来第二季度交付了22,000辆汽车，同比增长112%，年增长率约为90,000辆。与此同时，特斯拉在第二季度交付了 201,000 辆汽车，高于 2020 年第二季度的 103,000 辆汽车。这是同比的强劲增长，尽管略低于 100%，因此低于蔚来目前的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla delivers around 9x as many vehicles compared to NIO per quarter, when we look at the market capitalizations of the two companies, we see that the ratio is almost exactly the same, as Tesla's market cap of $640 billion is ~9x as high as that of NIO, at $72 billion. At similar growth rates, that would make perfect sense, but it looks like NIO might be the better deal for now, as it trades at a comparable valuation while generating better growth. This will be especially true in the coming quarters, where Tesla's growth is expected to slow down:</p><p><blockquote>与蔚来相比，特斯拉每季度交付的汽车数量约为 9 倍，当我们查看两家公司的市值时，我们会发现这一比例几乎完全相同，因为特斯拉 6400 亿美元的市值约为 9 倍蔚来的 720 亿美元。在类似的增长率下，这将是完全有意义的，但看起来蔚来目前可能是更好的交易，因为它的估值相当，同时产生了更好的增长。未来几个季度尤其如此，特斯拉的增长预计将放缓：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a986ea65130206f99961a46ce6cfed55\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Tesla is forecasted to grow its revenue from $49 billion in 2021 to $83 billion in 2023, for an annual growth rate of 30%. NIO, meanwhile, is expected to see its revenue explode upwards from $5.4 billion to $12.8 billion between 2021 and 2023, for an annual growth rate of 54%. NIO is thus expected to grow way faster than Tesla over the next two years, on a relative basis. This shouldn't be a surprise, to be honest, as the law of large numbers dictates that maintaining massive growth rates becomes increasingly hard for a company the bigger it gets, and Tesla seems to have hit that point by now -- adding 50%+ a year to its top line will not be possible forever. This isn't even necessarily Tesla's fault, in fact, many high-quality growth companies have experienced the same. But investors should still consider this important fact -- Tesla's growth in coming years will be less exciting compared to what we have seen in the past, and peers, such as NIO, are growing faster.</p><p><blockquote>预计特斯拉的收入将从2021年的490亿美元增长到2023年的830亿美元，年增长率为30%。与此同时，蔚来预计其收入将在 2021 年至 2023 年间从 54 亿美元激增至 128 亿美元，年增长率为 54%。因此，相对而言，预计未来两年蔚来的增长速度将远远超过特斯拉。老实说，这并不奇怪，因为大数定律表明，对于一家公司来说，保持巨大的增长率变得越来越困难，而特斯拉现在似乎已经达到了这一点——每年增加 50% 以上的收入是不可能永远的。这甚至不一定是特斯拉的错，事实上，许多优质成长型公司都经历过同样的事情。但投资者仍然应该考虑这个重要事实——与我们过去看到的相比，特斯拉未来几年的增长将不那么令人兴奋，而蔚来等同行的增长速度更快。</blockquote></p><p> The same holds true when we take a longer-term view. Revenue estimates for 2025 rest at$22.6 billionfor NIO, up another 80% from the 2023 estimate, and up 320% from what analysts are forecasting for 2021. Tesla, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate revenues of $122.5 billion in 2025 -- a large number, but up by a comparatively weak 48% from 2023, and up by a total of 150% versus 2021. Between 2021 and 2025, NIO will thus 4x its revenue, while Tesla will 2.5x its revenue in the same time span -- a meaningful difference that should, all else equal, allow for a premium valuation for NIO, in the same way Tesla deserves a premium valuation versus legacy players such as Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY).</p><p><blockquote>当我们从长远来看时，情况也是如此。蔚来 2025 年收入预期为 226 亿美元，比 2023 年预期再增长 80%，比分析师对 2021 年的预测增长 320%。与此同时，特斯拉预计 2025 年收入将达到 1225 亿美元，这是一个很大的数字，但比 2023 年增长相对较弱的 48%，比 2021 年总共增长 150%。因此，在 2021 年至 2025 年间，蔚来的收入将增长 4 倍，而特斯拉的收入将增长 2.5 倍——在其他条件相同的情况下，这是一个有意义的差异，应该可以让蔚来获得溢价估值，就像特斯拉值得拥有与大众汽车等传统参与者相比的溢价估值（OTCPK：VWAGY）。</blockquote></p><p> Looking at revenue estimates for 2025 relative to how the two companies are valued today, we see that NIO trades at 3.2x 2025 sales, while the 2025 sales multiple for Tesla is 5.2. For a long-term oriented investor, NIO thus seems like the better value today, thanks to the fact that it is trading at a significantly lower sales multiple when we take a look into the future. This does not necessarily mean that NIO is cheap, however, as even a 3.2x 2025 sales multiple is relatively high compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. NIO is looking less expensive than Tesla, however, even if its shares are not cheap on an absolute basis.</p><p><blockquote>将 2025 年的收入预测与两家公司目前的估值进行比较，我们发现蔚来的交易价格为 2025 年销售额的 3.2 倍，而特斯拉的 2025 年销售额倍数为 5.2。对于长期投资者来说，蔚来目前似乎更有价值，因为当我们展望未来时，它的销售倍数要低得多。然而，这并不一定意味着蔚来很便宜，因为与传统汽车公司的估值相比，即使是 2025 年 3.2 倍的销售倍数也相对较高。然而，蔚来看起来比特斯拉便宜，即使其股票绝对不便宜。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Can NIO Be Worth As Much As Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来能和特斯拉一样值钱吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that depends on what time frame you are looking at. Today, NIO is significantly smaller than Tesla and thus rightfully trades at a way smaller market cap. It should also be noted that there is no guarantee that Tesla's shares are a great example of how an EV company should be valued -- it is, at least, possible that its shares are significantly&nbsp;overpriced&nbsp;today, I personally believe that as well (Note that some will argue that shares are&nbsp;underpriced, which is also among the possibilities, although I do not hold that belief personally).</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案取决于你所关注的时间范围。如今，蔚来比特斯拉小得多，因此理所当然地以较小的市值进行交易。还应该指出的是，不能保证特斯拉的股票是电动汽车公司估值的一个很好的例子——至少，它的股票今天有可能被严重高估，我个人也相信这一点（请注意，有些人会认为股票价格被低估，这也是可能性之一，尽管我个人并不持有这种信念）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> When we do, for a moment, assume that Tesla is correctly valued today and that EV companies do deserve a market cap in the $600 billion range when they sell about 800,000 vehicles a year, then NIO could eventually hit that as well, although not in the near term. NIO will sell about 90,000 vehicles this year, and that amount should grow to about 400,000 in 2025. If NIO were to grow its sales by 15% a year beyond that point, it could sell around 800,000 cars in 2030, or 9 years from now. If one wants to assume faster growth, the 800,000 vehicles a year line could also be crossed before 2030, e.g. in 2028 or 2029. If we do go with 2030 for now, then NIO could, at a similar deliveries-to-market capitalization ratio to Tesla, be valued at $600+ billion in 2030. In other words, NIO could be worth as much as Tesla (today) in nine years, when we assume that current growth projections are realistic and that a Tesla-like valuation is appropriate. Those are two major ifs, of course, and especially the second point is far from certain, I believe. I personally would not be too surprised to see Tesla's valuation compress, and thus NIO could trade well below the $600 billion market cap level in 2030, even if it continues to grow meaningfully. It is also possible that NIO's growth disappoints and that current projections are too bullish, although I think that NIO is well-positioned for growth thanks to its unique BaaS model and its strong brand that is especially well-recognized in its home market.</p><p><blockquote>当我们暂时假设特斯拉今天的估值是正确的，并且电动汽车公司每年销售约 80 万辆汽车时，确实应该获得 6000 亿美元左右的市值，那么蔚来最终也可能达到这个目标，尽管不是在短期内。蔚来今年将销售约 9 万辆汽车，到 2025 年这一数字应该会增长到约 40 万辆。如果蔚来的销量在这一点后每年增长 15%，那么到 2030 年（即 9 年后），它可能会售出约 80 万辆汽车。如果想要假设更快的增长，每年 80 万辆汽车的大关也可能在 2030 年之前跨过，例如在 2028 年或 2029 年。如果我们现在真的选择 2030 年，那么按照与特斯拉类似的交付量与市值比率，蔚来到 2030 年的估值可能会超过 6000 亿美元。换句话说，如果我们假设当前的增长预测是现实的，并且类似特斯拉的估值是合适的，那么九年后蔚来的价值可能与特斯拉（今天）一样高。当然，这是两个主要的如果，尤其是第二点，我相信还远未确定。就我个人而言，看到特斯拉的估值压缩不会太惊讶，因此蔚来在 2030 年的市值可能远低于 6000 亿美元的水平，即使它继续大幅增长。蔚来汽车的增长也有可能令人失望，目前的预测过于乐观，尽管我认为蔚来凭借其独特的BaaS模式和在国内市场尤其知名的强大品牌，处于有利的增长位置。</blockquote></p><p> It should also be noted that Tesla's market cap in 2030 could be very different from $600 billion, thus even in case NIO hits that level, it is not at all guaranteed that the two companies will have a similar market cap. Tesla might be valued at a way higher valuation by then, e.g. if the ARK model is right (something I personally think is unlikely). To answer the above question, one could thus say that NIO might be worth hundreds of billions of dollars, like Tesla, in 8-10 years, but that is not at all guaranteed. And even if that were to happen, Tesla might be worth significantly more by then.</p><p><blockquote>还需要注意的是，特斯拉2030年的市值可能与6000亿美元有很大不同，因此即使蔚来达到这个水平，也根本不能保证两家公司的市值相似。到那时，特斯拉的估值可能会更高，例如，如果方舟模型是正确的（我个人认为不太可能）。为了回答上述问题，人们可以说，蔚来可能在8-10年内价值数千亿美元，就像特斯拉一样，但这根本不能保证。即使发生了这种情况，到那时特斯拉的价值可能会高得多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO A Good Stock To Buy Or Sell Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来现在是买入还是卖出的好股票？</b></blockquote></p><p> When considering NIO as an investment, it doesn't really matter all that much whether it will become as large or highly valued as Tesla eventually. Instead, investors should ask themselves what total returns they can expect over the next couple of years, and whether those expected returns are high enough relative to the risks in NIO's business model. Regarding those risks, one should mention the fact that the company isn't profitable yet, which means that NIO is dependent on cash on its balance sheet for growth investments. On top of that, competition in the EV space is growing, and market share battles could pressure margins in coming years, although NIO seems relatively well-positioned thanks to its battery-swapping, which is, I believe, a strong USP. Last but not least, the company's dependence on its home market China is a potential risk that should be kept in mind, although it should also be noted that, for now, it seems like the Chinese government is very accommodating to Chinese EV companies.</p><p><blockquote>当将蔚来视为一项投资时，它最终是否会变得像特斯拉一样大或高估值并不重要。相反，投资者应该问问自己，未来几年他们可以预期的总回报是多少，以及这些预期回报相对于蔚来商业模式的风险是否足够高。关于这些风险，值得一提的是，该公司尚未盈利，这意味着蔚来依赖其资产负债表上的现金进行增长投资。最重要的是，电动汽车领域的竞争正在加剧，市场份额之争可能会在未来几年给利润率带来压力，尽管蔚来似乎由于其电池更换而处于相对有利的地位，我相信这是一个强大的卖点。最后但并非最不重要的一点是，该公司对中国本土市场的依赖是一个应牢记的潜在风险，尽管还应该指出的是，目前中国政府似乎对中国电动汽车公司非常宽容。</blockquote></p><p> One could argue that valuations across the whole EV industry are too high, relative to how legacy auto companies are valued. Even those legacy players with attractive EV offerings such as Volkswagen or Ford trade at huge discounts compared to EV pureplays. But if one wants to invest in an EV pureplay, NIO doesn't seem like a bad choice. The company combines a strong brand, a unique BaaS offering, high growth rates, and shares trade at a discount compared to how the EV king Tesla is valued. At a little above 3x 2025 revenue, NIO does not seem overly expensive relative to other EV pureplays, although this still represents a premium versus legacy players, of course. If NIO manages to execute well and continues to roll out new models that are well-received by consumers, its shares could have significant upside potential in the long run. If EV stocks ever become an out-of-favor investment, NIO stock also could have considerable downside, however, this thus is not a low-risk pick. Depending on your risk tolerance, NIO could still be of value if you want a high-growth EV pureplay.</p><p><blockquote>有人可能会说，相对于传统汽车公司的估值，整个电动汽车行业的估值过高。与纯电动汽车相比，即使是大众或福特等拥有有吸引力的电动汽车产品的传统厂商也能享受巨大的折扣。但如果想投资电动汽车 pureplay，蔚来似乎并不是一个糟糕的选择。该公司结合了强大的品牌、独特的 BaaS 产品、高增长率以及与电动汽车之王特斯拉的估值相比折扣的股票交易。蔚来的收入略高于 2025 年的 3 倍，与其他电动汽车纯电动汽车相比似乎并不算太贵，尽管当然，这仍然代表着与传统厂商相比的溢价。如果蔚来能够很好地执行并继续推出深受消费者欢迎的新车型，从长远来看，其股价可能具有巨大的上涨潜力。如果电动汽车股票成为不受欢迎的投资，蔚来股票也可能有相当大的负面影响，然而，这并不是一个低风险的选择。根据您的风险承受能力，如果您想要高增长的电动汽车 pureplay，蔚来仍然很有价值。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440950-will-nio-stock-follow-tesla-what-to-consider-ev-stocks\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440950-will-nio-stock-follow-tesla-what-to-consider-ev-stocks","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112927800","content_text":"Summary\n\nLet's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.\nNIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.\nNIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.\n\nipopba/iStock via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nNIO, Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading EV players, and has, through an attractive brand and its unique BaaS offering, attracted a lot of interest from consumers and investors. Today, however, the company is still way smaller than Tesla (TSLA), which is currently leading the global EV market. NIO is focused on its home market right now, which was true when Tesla was a smaller company as well, but NIO will try to grab market share in overseas markets as well. Shares are pricing in a lot of growth already, but if NIO can replicate Tesla's success, that could be more than justified.\nNIO And TSLA Stock Prices\nBoth companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV pureplays rise rapidly. The combination of growing market share for EVs, accommodating policies such as subsidies for EV purchases, and massive monetary stimulus let shares of NIO and TSLA rise rapidly. NIO is up 245% over the last year, while TSLA is up 101% over the same time. Both companies are currently trading below their all-time highs, however, which were hit in early 2021 before market sentiment for EV pureplays cooled to some degree.\nData by YCharts\nTaking a quick look at analyst price targets, we see that Tesla is trading almost perfectly in line with the consensus, whereas NIO trades about 30% below the analyst target. If the analyst community is right, then NIO is a substantially better investment right here, as Tesla is not expected to see its shares rise meaningfully over the next year, whereas NIO has significant upside to the analyst price target.\nIs NIO Similar To Tesla?\nThe answer to that question depends on what you focus on. There are similarities between the two companies, but there are also differences. One could thus say that, in some ways, the two are similar, but in others, they are not. Let's look at a couple of things:\nBusiness Model\nBoth companies are focused on the EV space, although Tesla has, over the years, been building out a couple of other businesses as well, such as energy storage. Most of Tesla's revenues are generated through selling electric vehicles, which is also how NIO operates. Both companies are focused on the premium segment of EVs, selling higher-priced vehicles that compete with brands such as BMW, Mercedes, and Lexus. Both companies offer a small range of different vehicles, in Tesla's case those are the well-known S, X, 3, and Y, whereas NIO offers a sedan (ET7), and three SUVs (EC6, ES6, ES8). Despite the fact that NIO is a way smaller company today, the model lineups of the two companies do thus not differ too much.\nBoth companies offer some type of charging infrastructure to their customers, in Tesla's case, that's the Supercharger network, where Tesla owners can charge their cars with up to 250kW, depending on what version of Supercharger is installed. NIO is following a different approach, offering a battery-as-a-service solution to its customers. NIO owners can get their battery switched out to a fully-charged battery at NIO's stations, a process that takes a couple of minutes and is thus significantly quicker compared to the regular EV charging offered by Tesla and other EV players. BaaS thus has advantages when it comes to the time it takes for a charge/swap, but it should be noted that Tesla's Superchargers are way more common around the world compared to NIO's battery-swapping stations. Rolling out that feature in additional markets will require large capital expenditures, but NIO's offering is a unique selling point compared to what all other EV players, including Tesla, are offering. It remains to be seen whether that will ultimately pay off, but this could become a major advantage for NIO as competition in the EV space is heating up.\nSize, growth, and valuation\nThe two companies differ significantly in size, both when it comes to revenues and vehicle sales, as well as when it comes to the market value of the two companies. NIO has delivered22,000 vehicles in Q2, up 112% year over year, for an annual pace of around 90,000 vehicles. Tesla, meanwhile, has delivered 201,000 vehicles during Q2, up from 103,000 vehicles delivered during Q2 2020. This is strong growth on a year-over-year basis, although slightly below 100%, and thus below the growth rate that NIO is generating for now.\nTesla delivers around 9x as many vehicles compared to NIO per quarter, when we look at the market capitalizations of the two companies, we see that the ratio is almost exactly the same, as Tesla's market cap of $640 billion is ~9x as high as that of NIO, at $72 billion. At similar growth rates, that would make perfect sense, but it looks like NIO might be the better deal for now, as it trades at a comparable valuation while generating better growth. This will be especially true in the coming quarters, where Tesla's growth is expected to slow down:\nData by YCharts\nTesla is forecasted to grow its revenue from $49 billion in 2021 to $83 billion in 2023, for an annual growth rate of 30%. NIO, meanwhile, is expected to see its revenue explode upwards from $5.4 billion to $12.8 billion between 2021 and 2023, for an annual growth rate of 54%. NIO is thus expected to grow way faster than Tesla over the next two years, on a relative basis. This shouldn't be a surprise, to be honest, as the law of large numbers dictates that maintaining massive growth rates becomes increasingly hard for a company the bigger it gets, and Tesla seems to have hit that point by now -- adding 50%+ a year to its top line will not be possible forever. This isn't even necessarily Tesla's fault, in fact, many high-quality growth companies have experienced the same. But investors should still consider this important fact -- Tesla's growth in coming years will be less exciting compared to what we have seen in the past, and peers, such as NIO, are growing faster.\nThe same holds true when we take a longer-term view. Revenue estimates for 2025 rest at$22.6 billionfor NIO, up another 80% from the 2023 estimate, and up 320% from what analysts are forecasting for 2021. Tesla, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate revenues of $122.5 billion in 2025 -- a large number, but up by a comparatively weak 48% from 2023, and up by a total of 150% versus 2021. Between 2021 and 2025, NIO will thus 4x its revenue, while Tesla will 2.5x its revenue in the same time span -- a meaningful difference that should, all else equal, allow for a premium valuation for NIO, in the same way Tesla deserves a premium valuation versus legacy players such as Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY).\nLooking at revenue estimates for 2025 relative to how the two companies are valued today, we see that NIO trades at 3.2x 2025 sales, while the 2025 sales multiple for Tesla is 5.2. For a long-term oriented investor, NIO thus seems like the better value today, thanks to the fact that it is trading at a significantly lower sales multiple when we take a look into the future. This does not necessarily mean that NIO is cheap, however, as even a 3.2x 2025 sales multiple is relatively high compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. NIO is looking less expensive than Tesla, however, even if its shares are not cheap on an absolute basis.\nCan NIO Be Worth As Much As Tesla?\nThe answer to that depends on what time frame you are looking at. Today, NIO is significantly smaller than Tesla and thus rightfully trades at a way smaller market cap. It should also be noted that there is no guarantee that Tesla's shares are a great example of how an EV company should be valued -- it is, at least, possible that its shares are significantly overpriced today, I personally believe that as well (Note that some will argue that shares are underpriced, which is also among the possibilities, although I do not hold that belief personally).\nWhen we do, for a moment, assume that Tesla is correctly valued today and that EV companies do deserve a market cap in the $600 billion range when they sell about 800,000 vehicles a year, then NIO could eventually hit that as well, although not in the near term. NIO will sell about 90,000 vehicles this year, and that amount should grow to about 400,000 in 2025. If NIO were to grow its sales by 15% a year beyond that point, it could sell around 800,000 cars in 2030, or 9 years from now. If one wants to assume faster growth, the 800,000 vehicles a year line could also be crossed before 2030, e.g. in 2028 or 2029. If we do go with 2030 for now, then NIO could, at a similar deliveries-to-market capitalization ratio to Tesla, be valued at $600+ billion in 2030. In other words, NIO could be worth as much as Tesla (today) in nine years, when we assume that current growth projections are realistic and that a Tesla-like valuation is appropriate. Those are two major ifs, of course, and especially the second point is far from certain, I believe. I personally would not be too surprised to see Tesla's valuation compress, and thus NIO could trade well below the $600 billion market cap level in 2030, even if it continues to grow meaningfully. It is also possible that NIO's growth disappoints and that current projections are too bullish, although I think that NIO is well-positioned for growth thanks to its unique BaaS model and its strong brand that is especially well-recognized in its home market.\nIt should also be noted that Tesla's market cap in 2030 could be very different from $600 billion, thus even in case NIO hits that level, it is not at all guaranteed that the two companies will have a similar market cap. Tesla might be valued at a way higher valuation by then, e.g. if the ARK model is right (something I personally think is unlikely). To answer the above question, one could thus say that NIO might be worth hundreds of billions of dollars, like Tesla, in 8-10 years, but that is not at all guaranteed. And even if that were to happen, Tesla might be worth significantly more by then.\nIs NIO A Good Stock To Buy Or Sell Now?\nWhen considering NIO as an investment, it doesn't really matter all that much whether it will become as large or highly valued as Tesla eventually. Instead, investors should ask themselves what total returns they can expect over the next couple of years, and whether those expected returns are high enough relative to the risks in NIO's business model. Regarding those risks, one should mention the fact that the company isn't profitable yet, which means that NIO is dependent on cash on its balance sheet for growth investments. On top of that, competition in the EV space is growing, and market share battles could pressure margins in coming years, although NIO seems relatively well-positioned thanks to its battery-swapping, which is, I believe, a strong USP. Last but not least, the company's dependence on its home market China is a potential risk that should be kept in mind, although it should also be noted that, for now, it seems like the Chinese government is very accommodating to Chinese EV companies.\nOne could argue that valuations across the whole EV industry are too high, relative to how legacy auto companies are valued. Even those legacy players with attractive EV offerings such as Volkswagen or Ford trade at huge discounts compared to EV pureplays. But if one wants to invest in an EV pureplay, NIO doesn't seem like a bad choice. The company combines a strong brand, a unique BaaS offering, high growth rates, and shares trade at a discount compared to how the EV king Tesla is valued. At a little above 3x 2025 revenue, NIO does not seem overly expensive relative to other EV pureplays, although this still represents a premium versus legacy players, of course. If NIO manages to execute well and continues to roll out new models that are well-received by consumers, its shares could have significant upside potential in the long run. If EV stocks ever become an out-of-favor investment, NIO stock also could have considerable downside, however, this thus is not a low-risk pick. Depending on your risk tolerance, NIO could still be of value if you want a high-growth EV pureplay.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9,"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2294,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":174659928,"gmtCreate":1627096614864,"gmtModify":1633767996769,"author":{"id":"3583447705533959","authorId":"3583447705533959","name":"Kmj121","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c59f0eacf93cd197ec1e2105b1796413","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583447705533959","idStr":"3583447705533959"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"leek","listText":"leek","text":"leek","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/174659928","repostId":"1151500518","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1151500518","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1627092269,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1151500518?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-24 10:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tencent was ordered to remove the exclusive copyright of online music<blockquote>腾讯控股被勒令删除在线音乐的独家版权</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151500518","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"The China market supervision administration made an administrative punishment decision according to ","content":"<p>The China market supervision administration made an administrative punishment decision according to law, ordering Tencent and its affiliated companies to take measures to restore the state of market competition, such as canceling the exclusive music copyright within 30 days, stopping the payment of copyright fees such as high prepayment, and not requiring the upstream copyright party to give conditions superior to its competitors without justified reasons. Tencent will report the performance of its obligations to the State Administration of market supervision every year within three years, and the State Administration of market supervision will strictly supervise its implementation according to law.</p><p><blockquote>国家市场监督管理总局依法作出行政处罚决定，责令腾讯控股及其关联公司采取30日内取消独家音乐版权、停止支付高额预付款等版权费用、无正当理由不得要求上游版权方给予优于其竞争对手的条件等恢复市场竞争状态的措施。腾讯控股将在3年内每年向国家市场监督管理总局报告履行义务情况，国家市场监督管理总局将依法严格监督其执行情况。</blockquote></p><p> This case is the first case in which necessary measures have been taken to restore the state of market competition for the illegal implementation of business concentration since the implementation of China's anti-monopoly law.</p><p><blockquote>本案是我国《反垄断法》实施以来，对违法实施经营者集中行为采取必要措施恢复市场竞争状态的第一起案件。</blockquote></p><p> Tencent responded that the company will seriously abide by the decision, strictly implement the regulatory requirements, operate in accordance with the law, earnestly fulfill its social responsibility and maintain benign competition in the market. Tencent will take full responsibility, formulate rectification measures and plans with Tencent music and other affiliated companies within the specified time limit, and complete them completely in accordance with the requirements of the punishment decision to ensure that the rectification is in place.</p><p><blockquote>腾讯控股回应称，公司将认真遵守决定，严格执行监管要求，依法经营，切实履行社会责任，维护市场良性竞争。腾讯控股将全面负起责任，在规定期限内会同腾讯控股音乐等关联公司制定整改措施和方案，并按照处罚决定书要求全面完成，确保整改到位。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tencent was ordered to remove the exclusive copyright of online music<blockquote>腾讯控股被勒令删除在线音乐的独家版权</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTencent was ordered to remove the exclusive copyright of online music<blockquote>腾讯控股被勒令删除在线音乐的独家版权</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-24 10:04</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The China market supervision administration made an administrative punishment decision according to law, ordering Tencent and its affiliated companies to take measures to restore the state of market competition, such as canceling the exclusive music copyright within 30 days, stopping the payment of copyright fees such as high prepayment, and not requiring the upstream copyright party to give conditions superior to its competitors without justified reasons. Tencent will report the performance of its obligations to the State Administration of market supervision every year within three years, and the State Administration of market supervision will strictly supervise its implementation according to law.</p><p><blockquote>国家市场监督管理总局依法作出行政处罚决定，责令腾讯控股及其关联公司采取30日内取消独家音乐版权、停止支付高额预付款等版权费用、无正当理由不得要求上游版权方给予优于其竞争对手的条件等恢复市场竞争状态的措施。腾讯控股将在3年内每年向国家市场监督管理总局报告履行义务情况，国家市场监督管理总局将依法严格监督其执行情况。</blockquote></p><p> This case is the first case in which necessary measures have been taken to restore the state of market competition for the illegal implementation of business concentration since the implementation of China's anti-monopoly law.</p><p><blockquote>本案是我国《反垄断法》实施以来，对违法实施经营者集中行为采取必要措施恢复市场竞争状态的第一起案件。</blockquote></p><p> Tencent responded that the company will seriously abide by the decision, strictly implement the regulatory requirements, operate in accordance with the law, earnestly fulfill its social responsibility and maintain benign competition in the market. Tencent will take full responsibility, formulate rectification measures and plans with Tencent music and other affiliated companies within the specified time limit, and complete them completely in accordance with the requirements of the punishment decision to ensure that the rectification is in place.</p><p><blockquote>腾讯控股回应称，公司将认真遵守决定，严格执行监管要求，依法经营，切实履行社会责任，维护市场良性竞争。腾讯控股将全面负起责任，在规定期限内会同腾讯控股音乐等关联公司制定整改措施和方案，并按照处罚决定书要求全面完成，确保整改到位。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TME":"腾讯音乐","00700":"腾讯控股"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151500518","content_text":"The China market supervision administration made an administrative punishment decision according to law, ordering Tencent and its affiliated companies to take measures to restore the state of market competition, such as canceling the exclusive music copyright within 30 days, stopping the payment of copyright fees such as high prepayment, and not requiring the upstream copyright party to give conditions superior to its competitors without justified reasons. Tencent will report the performance of its obligations to the State Administration of market supervision every year within three years, and the State Administration of market supervision will strictly supervise its implementation according to law.\nThis case is the first case in which necessary measures have been taken to restore the state of market competition for the illegal implementation of business concentration since the implementation of China's anti-monopoly law.\nTencent responded that the company will seriously abide by the decision, strictly implement the regulatory requirements, operate in accordance with the law, earnestly fulfill its social responsibility and maintain benign competition in the market. Tencent will take full responsibility, formulate rectification measures and plans with Tencent music and other affiliated companies within the specified time limit, and complete them completely in accordance with the requirements of the punishment decision to ensure that the rectification is in place.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TME":0.9,"00700":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2265,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":176719983,"gmtCreate":1626915575342,"gmtModify":1633769803857,"author":{"id":"3583447705533959","authorId":"3583447705533959","name":"Kmj121","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c59f0eacf93cd197ec1e2105b1796413","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583447705533959","idStr":"3583447705533959"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/176719983","repostId":"1186011456","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1186011456","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626915117,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1186011456?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-22 08:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Intel Reports Earnings Thursday. Here’s What to Expect.<blockquote>英特尔周四公布财报。以下是可以期待的。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1186011456","media":"Barrons","summary":"When Intel reports earnings Thursday after the closing bell, it’s going to have to put in some work to convince investors the past three months have gone well.Expectations for chip companies are already high heading into the June quarter, as investors are looking for a batch of earnings that beat estimates and bullish guidance, according to tech strategist Ted Mortonson. However, shares of Intel  13% during the second quarter as the benchmark PHLX Semiconductor index, or Sox, gained 1.7% But so ","content":"<p>When Intel reports earnings Thursday after the closing bell, it’s going to have to put in some work to convince investors the past three months have gone well.</p><p><blockquote>当英特尔在周四收盘后公布财报时，它将不得不做一些工作来说服投资者过去三个月的业绩很好。</blockquote></p><p> Expectations for chip companies are already high heading into the June quarter, as investors are looking for a batch of earnings that beat estimates and bullish guidance, according to tech strategist Ted Mortonson. However, shares of Intel (ticker: INTC) 13% during the second quarter as the benchmark PHLX Semiconductor index, or Sox, gained 1.7% But so long as nothing like last year’s delay of its advanced manufacturing process happens, Intel can likely continue to ride the big demand around the world for chips through the end of the year.</p><p><blockquote>科技策略师泰德·莫顿森 (Ted Mortonson) 表示，进入 6 月份季度，芯片公司的预期已经很高，因为投资者正在寻找一批超出预期和看涨指引的收益。不过，英特尔（股票代码：INTC）的股价在第二季度上涨了 13%，基准 PHLX 半导体指数（Sox）上涨了 1.7%。</blockquote></p><p> Newly installed chief executive Pat Gelsinger has already started to make big changes during the second quarter, doubling down on the company’s manufacturing business for its own chips while at the same time expanding its scope by starting a contract manufacturing unit called Intel Foundry Services. He also instituted major personnel changes and restructured parts of the company’s operations.</p><p><blockquote>新上任的首席执行官帕特-基辛格（Pat Gelsinger）已经在第二季度开始做出重大改变，加倍加大公司自有芯片制造业务的力度，同时通过成立一个名为英特尔代工服务公司（Intel Foundry Services）的合同制造部门来扩大业务范围。他还进行了重大人事变动，并重组了公司的部分业务。</blockquote></p><p> Investors should parse Intel’s Thursday conference call with executives for clues about the company’s forthcoming strategy, including confirmation or details on the company’s talks for a $30 billion bid for U.S.-based semiconductor manufacturing company GlobalFoundries, which The Wall Street Journal reported last Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>据《华尔街日报》上周四报道，投资者应分析英特尔周四与高管的电话会议，以获取有关该公司即将出台的战略的线索，包括该公司就以 300 亿美元收购美国半导体制造公司 GlobalFoundries 进行谈判的确认或细节。</blockquote></p><p> GlobalFoundries CEOTom Caulfieldappeared to curb expectations that a deal was in the works in an interview with Bloomberg Television late Monday. The Journal reported last Thursday that Global Foundries executives weren’t involved in the talks; the talks were between Intel and the Abu Dhabi government’s Mubadala Investment vehicle that owns GlobalFoundries. A person familiar with how Mubadala operates told Barron’‘s that keeping GlobalFoundries unaware of a potential deal with Intel would be typical of its behavior.</p><p><blockquote>GlobalFoundries 首席执行官 Tom Caulfield 在周一晚间接受彭博电视台采访时似乎抑制了交易正在进行中的预期。《华尔街日报》上周四报道称，全球代工厂的高管没有参与会谈；会谈是在英特尔和阿布扎比政府拥有 GlobalFoundries 的穆巴达拉投资机构之间进行的。一位熟悉 Mubadala 运作方式的人士告诉《巴伦周刊》，让 GlobalFoundries 不知道与英特尔可能达成的交易是其典型行为。</blockquote></p><p> Overall, the consensus forecast for second-quarter adjusted earnings is $1.07 a share on revenue of $17.8 billion. Intel sold its memory business last year, which the company and investors often exclude from its revenue.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，第二季度调整后收益的普遍预测为每股 1.07 美元，营收为 178 亿美元。英特尔去年出售了其内存业务，该公司和投资者经常将其排除在收入之外。</blockquote></p><p> For the second quarter, investors will be closely watching Intel’s data center business. At the moment, the consensus forecast for Intel’s second-quarter data-center revenue is a decrease of 17% to $5.9 billion, compared with the year-ago period. Still, it’s expected to rise sequentially, from revenue of $5.6 billion in the first quarter.</p><p><blockquote>第二季度，投资者将密切关注英特尔的数据中心业务。目前，人们普遍预测英特尔第二季度数据中心收入将比去年同期下降 17%，降至 59 亿美元。尽管如此，预计该公司仍将在第一季度营收 56 亿美元的基础上逐步上升。</blockquote></p><p> Evercore analyst C.J. Muse wrote in a client note that data-center spending recovery, combined with growth in artificial intelligence and machine learning computing–tasks which are typically performed in data centers–could help boost Intel’s revenue for the segment above his outlook.</p><p><blockquote>Evercore分析师C.J。缪斯在一份客户说明中写道，数据中心支出的复苏，再加上人工智能和机器学习计算（通常在数据中心执行的任务）的增长，可能会帮助英特尔在该领域的收入超过他的预期。</blockquote></p><p> Though there are reports that the pandemic-spurred boom of personal computer sales has started to slow, Susquehanna Financial Group analystChristopher Rollandpredicted that Intel will likely achieve its guidance or perform slightly better based on his checks. At the moment, the consensus estimate for Intel’s PC segment is for second-quarter revenue growth of 4.9% to just under $10 billion.</p><p><blockquote>尽管有报道称大流行刺激的个人电脑销售繁荣已经开始放缓，但萨斯奎汉纳金融集团分析师克里斯托弗·罗兰根据他的检查预测，英特尔可能会实现其指引或表现略好。目前，人们普遍预计英特尔个人电脑部门第二季度收入将增长 4.9%，略低于 100 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Rolland also said that his team has uncovered modest supply constraints for PCs built around chips made by Intel rival Advanced Micro Devices (AMD). If that turns out to be true, it would benefit Intel’s second-quarter PC sales, Rolland said. AMD declined to comment, citing its quiet period ahead of earnings.</p><p><blockquote>罗兰还表示，他的团队发现了围绕英特尔竞争对手先进微设备公司（AMD）制造的芯片制造的个人电脑的适度供应限制。罗兰说，如果情况属实，这将有利于英特尔第二季度的个人电脑销售。AMD 拒绝置评，理由是财报发布前的平静期。</blockquote></p><p> Of the analysts who cover Intel, 18 rate shares Buy, 16 have a Hold rating, and 10 rate it Sell. The average target price is $66.79, which implies a return of 21% from a recent price of $55.</p><p><blockquote>在研究英特尔的分析师中，18 位给予买入评级，16 位给予持有评级，10 位给予卖出评级。平均目标价为 66.79 美元，这意味着较近期 55 美元的价格回报率为 21%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Intel Reports Earnings Thursday. Here’s What to Expect.<blockquote>英特尔周四公布财报。以下是可以期待的。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIntel Reports Earnings Thursday. Here’s What to Expect.<blockquote>英特尔周四公布财报。以下是可以期待的。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-22 08:51</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>When Intel reports earnings Thursday after the closing bell, it’s going to have to put in some work to convince investors the past three months have gone well.</p><p><blockquote>当英特尔在周四收盘后公布财报时，它将不得不做一些工作来说服投资者过去三个月的业绩很好。</blockquote></p><p> Expectations for chip companies are already high heading into the June quarter, as investors are looking for a batch of earnings that beat estimates and bullish guidance, according to tech strategist Ted Mortonson. However, shares of Intel (ticker: INTC) 13% during the second quarter as the benchmark PHLX Semiconductor index, or Sox, gained 1.7% But so long as nothing like last year’s delay of its advanced manufacturing process happens, Intel can likely continue to ride the big demand around the world for chips through the end of the year.</p><p><blockquote>科技策略师泰德·莫顿森 (Ted Mortonson) 表示，进入 6 月份季度，芯片公司的预期已经很高，因为投资者正在寻找一批超出预期和看涨指引的收益。不过，英特尔（股票代码：INTC）的股价在第二季度上涨了 13%，基准 PHLX 半导体指数（Sox）上涨了 1.7%。</blockquote></p><p> Newly installed chief executive Pat Gelsinger has already started to make big changes during the second quarter, doubling down on the company’s manufacturing business for its own chips while at the same time expanding its scope by starting a contract manufacturing unit called Intel Foundry Services. He also instituted major personnel changes and restructured parts of the company’s operations.</p><p><blockquote>新上任的首席执行官帕特-基辛格（Pat Gelsinger）已经在第二季度开始做出重大改变，加倍加大公司自有芯片制造业务的力度，同时通过成立一个名为英特尔代工服务公司（Intel Foundry Services）的合同制造部门来扩大业务范围。他还进行了重大人事变动，并重组了公司的部分业务。</blockquote></p><p> Investors should parse Intel’s Thursday conference call with executives for clues about the company’s forthcoming strategy, including confirmation or details on the company’s talks for a $30 billion bid for U.S.-based semiconductor manufacturing company GlobalFoundries, which The Wall Street Journal reported last Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>据《华尔街日报》上周四报道，投资者应分析英特尔周四与高管的电话会议，以获取有关该公司即将出台的战略的线索，包括该公司就以 300 亿美元收购美国半导体制造公司 GlobalFoundries 进行谈判的确认或细节。</blockquote></p><p> GlobalFoundries CEOTom Caulfieldappeared to curb expectations that a deal was in the works in an interview with Bloomberg Television late Monday. The Journal reported last Thursday that Global Foundries executives weren’t involved in the talks; the talks were between Intel and the Abu Dhabi government’s Mubadala Investment vehicle that owns GlobalFoundries. A person familiar with how Mubadala operates told Barron’‘s that keeping GlobalFoundries unaware of a potential deal with Intel would be typical of its behavior.</p><p><blockquote>GlobalFoundries 首席执行官 Tom Caulfield 在周一晚间接受彭博电视台采访时似乎抑制了交易正在进行中的预期。《华尔街日报》上周四报道称，全球代工厂的高管没有参与会谈；会谈是在英特尔和阿布扎比政府拥有 GlobalFoundries 的穆巴达拉投资机构之间进行的。一位熟悉 Mubadala 运作方式的人士告诉《巴伦周刊》，让 GlobalFoundries 不知道与英特尔可能达成的交易是其典型行为。</blockquote></p><p> Overall, the consensus forecast for second-quarter adjusted earnings is $1.07 a share on revenue of $17.8 billion. Intel sold its memory business last year, which the company and investors often exclude from its revenue.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，第二季度调整后收益的普遍预测为每股 1.07 美元，营收为 178 亿美元。英特尔去年出售了其内存业务，该公司和投资者经常将其排除在收入之外。</blockquote></p><p> For the second quarter, investors will be closely watching Intel’s data center business. At the moment, the consensus forecast for Intel’s second-quarter data-center revenue is a decrease of 17% to $5.9 billion, compared with the year-ago period. Still, it’s expected to rise sequentially, from revenue of $5.6 billion in the first quarter.</p><p><blockquote>第二季度，投资者将密切关注英特尔的数据中心业务。目前，人们普遍预测英特尔第二季度数据中心收入将比去年同期下降 17%，降至 59 亿美元。尽管如此，预计该公司仍将在第一季度营收 56 亿美元的基础上逐步上升。</blockquote></p><p> Evercore analyst C.J. Muse wrote in a client note that data-center spending recovery, combined with growth in artificial intelligence and machine learning computing–tasks which are typically performed in data centers–could help boost Intel’s revenue for the segment above his outlook.</p><p><blockquote>Evercore分析师C.J。缪斯在一份客户说明中写道，数据中心支出的复苏，再加上人工智能和机器学习计算（通常在数据中心执行的任务）的增长，可能会帮助英特尔在该领域的收入超过他的预期。</blockquote></p><p> Though there are reports that the pandemic-spurred boom of personal computer sales has started to slow, Susquehanna Financial Group analystChristopher Rollandpredicted that Intel will likely achieve its guidance or perform slightly better based on his checks. At the moment, the consensus estimate for Intel’s PC segment is for second-quarter revenue growth of 4.9% to just under $10 billion.</p><p><blockquote>尽管有报道称大流行刺激的个人电脑销售繁荣已经开始放缓，但萨斯奎汉纳金融集团分析师克里斯托弗·罗兰根据他的检查预测，英特尔可能会实现其指引或表现略好。目前，人们普遍预计英特尔个人电脑部门第二季度收入将增长 4.9%，略低于 100 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Rolland also said that his team has uncovered modest supply constraints for PCs built around chips made by Intel rival Advanced Micro Devices (AMD). If that turns out to be true, it would benefit Intel’s second-quarter PC sales, Rolland said. AMD declined to comment, citing its quiet period ahead of earnings.</p><p><blockquote>罗兰还表示，他的团队发现了围绕英特尔竞争对手先进微设备公司（AMD）制造的芯片制造的个人电脑的适度供应限制。罗兰说，如果情况属实，这将有利于英特尔第二季度的个人电脑销售。AMD 拒绝置评，理由是财报发布前的平静期。</blockquote></p><p> Of the analysts who cover Intel, 18 rate shares Buy, 16 have a Hold rating, and 10 rate it Sell. The average target price is $66.79, which implies a return of 21% from a recent price of $55.</p><p><blockquote>在研究英特尔的分析师中，18 位给予买入评级，16 位给予持有评级，10 位给予卖出评级。平均目标价为 66.79 美元，这意味着较近期 55 美元的价格回报率为 21%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/intel-earnings-51626886116?siteid=yhoof2\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"INTC":"英特尔"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/intel-earnings-51626886116?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1186011456","content_text":"When Intel reports earnings Thursday after the closing bell, it’s going to have to put in some work to convince investors the past three months have gone well.\nExpectations for chip companies are already high heading into the June quarter, as investors are looking for a batch of earnings that beat estimates and bullish guidance, according to tech strategist Ted Mortonson. However, shares of Intel (ticker: INTC) 13% during the second quarter as the benchmark PHLX Semiconductor index, or Sox, gained 1.7% But so long as nothing like last year’s delay of its advanced manufacturing process happens, Intel can likely continue to ride the big demand around the world for chips through the end of the year.\nNewly installed chief executive Pat Gelsinger has already started to make big changes during the second quarter, doubling down on the company’s manufacturing business for its own chips while at the same time expanding its scope by starting a contract manufacturing unit called Intel Foundry Services. He also instituted major personnel changes and restructured parts of the company’s operations.\nInvestors should parse Intel’s Thursday conference call with executives for clues about the company’s forthcoming strategy, including confirmation or details on the company’s talks for a $30 billion bid for U.S.-based semiconductor manufacturing company GlobalFoundries, which The Wall Street Journal reported last Thursday.\nGlobalFoundries CEOTom Caulfieldappeared to curb expectations that a deal was in the works in an interview with Bloomberg Television late Monday. The Journal reported last Thursday that Global Foundries executives weren’t involved in the talks; the talks were between Intel and the Abu Dhabi government’s Mubadala Investment vehicle that owns GlobalFoundries. A person familiar with how Mubadala operates told Barron’‘s that keeping GlobalFoundries unaware of a potential deal with Intel would be typical of its behavior.\nOverall, the consensus forecast for second-quarter adjusted earnings is $1.07 a share on revenue of $17.8 billion. Intel sold its memory business last year, which the company and investors often exclude from its revenue.\nFor the second quarter, investors will be closely watching Intel’s data center business. At the moment, the consensus forecast for Intel’s second-quarter data-center revenue is a decrease of 17% to $5.9 billion, compared with the year-ago period. Still, it’s expected to rise sequentially, from revenue of $5.6 billion in the first quarter.\nEvercore analyst C.J. Muse wrote in a client note that data-center spending recovery, combined with growth in artificial intelligence and machine learning computing–tasks which are typically performed in data centers–could help boost Intel’s revenue for the segment above his outlook.\nThough there are reports that the pandemic-spurred boom of personal computer sales has started to slow, Susquehanna Financial Group analystChristopher Rollandpredicted that Intel will likely achieve its guidance or perform slightly better based on his checks. At the moment, the consensus estimate for Intel’s PC segment is for second-quarter revenue growth of 4.9% to just under $10 billion.\nRolland also said that his team has uncovered modest supply constraints for PCs built around chips made by Intel rival Advanced Micro Devices (AMD). If that turns out to be true, it would benefit Intel’s second-quarter PC sales, Rolland said. AMD declined to comment, citing its quiet period ahead of earnings.\nOf the analysts who cover Intel, 18 rate shares Buy, 16 have a Hold rating, and 10 rate it Sell. The average target price is $66.79, which implies a return of 21% from a recent price of $55.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"INTC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1887,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":122116775,"gmtCreate":1624603527297,"gmtModify":1633950633737,"author":{"id":"3583447705533959","authorId":"3583447705533959","name":"Kmj121","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c59f0eacf93cd197ec1e2105b1796413","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583447705533959","idStr":"3583447705533959"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"up","listText":"up","text":"up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/122116775","repostId":"2146274410","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2174,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":128283783,"gmtCreate":1624518524842,"gmtModify":1634004946847,"author":{"id":"3583447705533959","authorId":"3583447705533959","name":"Kmj121","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c59f0eacf93cd197ec1e2105b1796413","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583447705533959","idStr":"3583447705533959"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"I up","listText":"I up","text":"I up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/128283783","repostId":"1170018171","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1170018171","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624518095,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1170018171?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-24 15:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What the Growing Ascendance of Electric Vehicles Means for Oil and Gas Stocks<blockquote>电动汽车日益增长的优势对石油和天然气股票意味着什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170018171","media":"The Street","summary":"As Tesla and other carmakers ramp up the number of EVs on the road, oil and gas companies are trying","content":"<p>  <b>As Tesla and other carmakers ramp up the number of EVs on the road, oil and gas companies are trying out a host of strategies to compensate.</b>  Electric vehicles (EVs) are poised to run over the oil and gas industry -- at least that’s what it seems like at first glance.</p><p><blockquote><b>随着特斯拉和其他汽车制造商增加上路电动汽车的数量，石油和天然气公司正在尝试一系列策略来弥补。</b>电动汽车（EV）即将席卷石油和天然气行业--至少乍一看是这样。</blockquote></p><p> By 2050, the vast majority of transport vehicles on the road across the globe are expected to be electric, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). And the transportation industry contributes roughly half of all the business for integrated oil and gas companies, which handle all three aspects of the process from exploration to production to refining, according to Giacomo Romeo, integrated oil and gas analyst with Jefferies Group.</p><p><blockquote>据国际能源署（IEA）称，到2050年，全球道路上的绝大多数运输车辆预计将是电动的。杰富瑞集团 (Jefferies Group) 综合石油和天然气分析师贾科莫·罗密欧 (Giacomo Romeo) 表示，运输行业约占综合石油和天然气公司所有业务的一半，这些公司处理从勘探到生产再到炼油的所有三个方面。</blockquote></p><p> Electric passenger vehicles such as the Tesla&nbsp;(<b>TSLA</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;Model 3, Nissan’s&nbsp;(<b>NSANY</b>)&nbsp;Leaf, Hyundai’s&nbsp;(<b>HYMTF</b>)&nbsp;Kona Electric and others are expected to account for 86% of all passenger vehicles on the road by 2050,up dramaticallyfrom just 1% last year. Meanwhile, electric vans are expected to soar to 84% of all vans from 0% last year, while 79% of buses and 59% of heavy trucks will be electric, up from 2% and 0%, respectively, according to IEA’s report “Net Zero by 2050: A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector.”</p><p><blockquote>电动乘用车，如特斯拉（<b>特斯拉</b>) -获取报告 Model 3，日产 (<b>恩萨尼</b>) 聆风，现代的 (<b>HYMTF</b>) 预计到 2050 年，Kona Electric 和其他公司将占道路上所有乘用车的 86%，比去年的 1% 大幅上升。与此同时，根据国际能源署的报告《到2050年实现净零：全球能源行业路线图》，电动货车预计将从去年的0%飙升至84%，而79%的公共汽车和59%的重型卡车将是电动的，分别从2%和0%有所上升。</blockquote></p><p> Catalysts driving this growth in the U.S. are expected to come from car manufacturers increasing both the total number of electric vehicles and the number of models they offer, government agencies offering incentives to consumers to purchase electric vehicles and support from President Biden to increase the use of electric vehicles, according to Edmunds. The automotive research firm released a report this year that found the U.S. electric vehicle market is on track to post record sales this year, with EVs expected to represent 2.5% of U.S. vehicle sales this year, up from 1.9% in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>推动美国这一增长的催化剂预计将来自汽车制造商增加电动汽车的总数和提供的车型数量、政府机构为消费者购买电动汽车提供激励措施以及拜登总统支持增加电动汽车的使用埃德蒙兹表示。这家汽车研究公司今年发布的一份报告发现，美国电动汽车市场今年的销量有望创下历史新高，电动汽车预计将占今年美国汽车销量的2.5%，高于2020年的1.9%。</blockquote></p><p> “Price and choice of models are the biggest barriers to buying EVs for consumers,” said Jessica Caldwell, executive director of insights for Edmunds. “You always pay more for EVs and once people start shopping for a car, they start with the intent of buying an EV, but when they begin to compare they see they can get a bigger one with more features than an EV. People equate bigger with better and think it’s a nicer car and more worthy.\"</p><p><blockquote>“Edmunds insights 执行董事杰西卡-考德威尔（Jessica Caldwell）说：”价格和车型选择是消费者购买电动汽车的最大障碍。“你总是要花更多的钱买电动汽车，一旦人们开始购买汽车，他们一开始就打算买电动汽车，但当他们开始比较时，他们发现他们可以买到比电动汽车功能更多的更大的电动汽车。人们把更大等同于更好，认为这是一辆更好、更有价值的车”。</blockquote></p><p> Recently, consumers’ preference hasswung to larger vehiclesand those tend to be gas-powered. But this year, for the first time, consumers will have the option of purchasing electric trucks, which expands the consumer EV categories beyond just passenger cars and SUVs, Caldwell noted.</p><p><blockquote>最近，消费者越来越倾向于大型车辆，而这些车辆往往是汽油动力的。但考德威尔指出，今年，消费者将首次可以选择购买电动卡车，这将消费电动汽车类别扩大到乘用车和 SUV 之外。</blockquote></p><p> By 2030, EV sales worldwide are expected to reach 31.1 million and represent approximately 32% of all new car sales, up from 2.5 million EVs sold last year, according to Deloitte Insights’ “Electric Vehicles Setting a Course for 2030” report.</p><p><blockquote>根据德勤洞察公司（Deloitte Insights）的《电动汽车为2030年设定路线》报告，到2030年，全球电动汽车销量预计将达到3110万辆，约占所有新车销量的32%，高于去年的250万辆。</blockquote></p><p> However, oil and gas companies, especially Royal Dutch Shell&nbsp;(<b>RDS.A</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;and British Petroleum&nbsp;(<b>BP ADR</b>), likely won't go the way of the dinosaurs as demand for their fossil fuels takes a deep dive, analysts say.</p><p><blockquote>然而，石油和天然气公司，尤其是荷兰皇家壳牌公司（<b>RDS.A</b>）-获取报告和英国石油公司（<b>BP ADR</b>分析师表示，随着对化石燃料的需求大幅下降，它们可能不会步恐龙的后尘。</blockquote></p><p> “I’m not sure the transportation industry will get to 100% EV,” said Jamie Hamilton, director and leader in the UK automotive sector strategy and operations for Deloitte. “Passenger cars may get there in the next five to 10 years depending on prices coming down and charging infrastructure rollouts, but freight and heavy vehicles may not” due to their weight.</p><p><blockquote>“德勤英国汽车行业战略与运营总监兼负责人杰米-汉密尔顿（Jamie Hamilton）说：”我不确定交通运输行业能否实现 100% 电动汽车。“乘用车可能会在未来五到十年内达到这一水平，这取决于价格下降和充电基础设施的推出，但货运和重型车辆可能不会”，因为它们的重量。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Dinosaurs Learn a New Dance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>恐龙学习新舞蹈</b></blockquote></p><p> The oil and gas industry is exploring a number of workarounds to avoid the financial hit from a potential decline in oil and gas demand brought on by electric vehicles. They received a taste of what a big dip in transportation demand would look like when COVID-19 hit and people hunkered down at home versus heading into the office or traveling.</p><p><blockquote>石油和天然气行业正在探索许多变通办法，以避免电动汽车带来的石油和天然气需求潜在下降带来的财务打击。他们尝到了当新冠肺炎来袭，人们窝在家里而不是去办公室或旅行时，交通需求的大幅下降会是什么样子。</blockquote></p><p> “Most of the oil and gas industry already had an eye on the changes going on in the larger market for some time, so the growth of EVs is not a surprise. But with the decline in driving and commuting with COVID, this was more stark than people predicted,” said Kate Hardin, executive director of Deloitte Energy, Resources and Industrials research center. “That took commuting down by 40% to 50% in some communities.”</p><p><blockquote>“德勤能源、资源和工业研究中心执行主任凯特-哈丁（Kate Hardin）说：”大多数石油和天然气行业已经关注了更大市场的变化一段时间，因此电动汽车的增长并不令人意外。但随着驾驶和通勤使用 COVID 的减少，这比人们预测的要明显得多。“这使得一些社区的通勤率下降了 40% 到 50%”。</blockquote></p><p> Hardin said there has been a lot of discussion among large oil and gas companies to explore new business models, such as developing solar energy, battery technology and energy storage.</p><p><blockquote>哈丁表示，大型石油和天然气公司之间已经进行了大量讨论，以探索新的商业模式，例如开发太阳能、电池技术和储能。</blockquote></p><p> Many fossil fuel companies are investing in power generation, such as renewable energy including solar and wind, Romeo said. Currently, the oil and gas industry is investing 15% of its total capital into power generation, and that is expected to increase to 25% after 2025.</p><p><blockquote>罗密欧说，许多化石燃料公司正在投资发电，例如太阳能和风能等可再生能源。目前，石油和天然气行业将其总资本的15%投资于发电，预计2025年后这一比例将增至25%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> However, the power generation business has returns of 10% at best, while the downstream business of refining fossil fuels has returns of 10% to 15% and the upstream business of extracting and producing the fuels about 20%, Romeo said. While the oil and gas business generally has higher returns, Rome said it is also far more volatile than the power generation business.</p><p><blockquote>然而，罗密欧表示，发电业务的回报率最多只有10%，而下游提炼化石燃料业务的回报率为10%至15%，上游提取和生产燃料业务的回报率约为20%。虽然石油和天然气业务通常具有较高的回报，但罗马表示，该业务的波动性也远远高于发电业务。</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, the cost of capital for the oil and gas business is higher than that for the renewables industry, due to increasing environmental, social and governance (ESG)- related concerns in the oil and gas business, and declining interest from investors.</p><p><blockquote>此外，由于石油和天然气业务对环境、社会和治理（ESG）相关的担忧日益增加，以及投资者兴趣下降，石油和天然气业务的资本成本高于可再生能源行业。</blockquote></p><p> “There is always a balance that has to be weighed,” Romeo said.</p><p><blockquote>“罗密欧说：”总有一个天平需要权衡。</blockquote></p><p> <b>One-Stop Shop Strategy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>一站式商店策略</b></blockquote></p><p> The larger oil and gas companies are also evaluating the design and use of their retail gas stations as consumers’ needs and behavior are expected to change.</p><p><blockquote>随着消费者的需求和行为预计会发生变化，大型石油和天然气公司也在评估其零售加油站的设计和使用。</blockquote></p><p> Companies with a large network of gas stations are considering transitioning them to EV charging stations, and those that have convenience stores as part of their stations expect to make even more money off of them once they are converted. That’s because charging an EV typically takes significantly longer than filling an internal combustion engine vehicle with gas.</p><p><blockquote>拥有大型加油站网络的公司正在考虑将其过渡到电动汽车充电站，而那些将便利店作为加油站一部分的公司预计，一旦它们被转换，就能从中赚到更多的钱。这是因为给电动汽车充电通常比给内燃机汽车加满汽油所需的时间要长得多。</blockquote></p><p> Companies in Europe and the U.S. actually get more revenue from their non-fuel business at their retail stations than they do from fuel, Romeo said.</p><p><blockquote>罗密欧说，欧洲和美国的公司实际上从零售站的非燃料业务中获得的收入比从燃料中获得的收入更多。</blockquote></p><p> “Oil companies see [that] as people charge their cars, they will spend more time in retail stores drinking coffee, shopping for groceries,” Romeo said. “BP and Shell are already talking about this.”</p><p><blockquote>“罗密欧说：”石油公司认为，随着人们给汽车充电，他们会花更多的时间在零售店喝咖啡、购买食品杂货。“英国石油公司和壳牌公司已经在讨论这个问题了。”</blockquote></p><p> However, people will also be using retail charging stations less often because they can charge their cars at home, at work or at other places that have charging stations.</p><p><blockquote>然而，人们也将减少使用零售充电站的频率，因为他们可以在家里、工作场所或其他有充电站的地方给汽车充电。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Other Survival Strategies</b></p><p><blockquote><b>其他生存策略</b></blockquote></p><p> Biofuels, which are produced from organic material such as corn, other vegetables and animal fats, are another area that oil and gas companies are exploring. For the aviation industry, biofuel is currently being mixed in with traditional jet fuel, but Boeing BA, for example, plans to fly its fleet using 100% biofuel by 2030, according to Reuters.</p><p><blockquote>生物燃料由玉米、其他蔬菜和动物脂肪等有机材料制成，是石油和天然气公司正在探索的另一个领域。据路透社报道，对于航空业来说，生物燃料目前正与传统喷气燃料混合使用，但据路透社报道，波音公司计划到 2030 年让其机队使用 100% 生物燃料飞行。</blockquote></p><p> Biofuels have high returns on investment too, Romeo noted. One company, Finland-based Neste (OTC: NTOIY), recently moved away from traditional refining to become the world’s largest renewable diesel producer, generating 30% returns compared to 12% for its traditional refining business.</p><p><blockquote>罗密欧指出，生物燃料的投资回报率也很高。总部位于芬兰的 Neste（OTC：NTOIY）公司最近摆脱了传统炼油业务，成为世界上最大的可再生柴油生产商，其传统炼油业务的回报率为 30%，而其传统炼油业务的回报率为 12%。</blockquote></p><p> Integrated oil and gas companies, which handle all three aspects of the process including exploration, production and refining, are also investing in hydrogen and batteries. Because renewable energy sources such as solar and wind do not provide a constant stream of energy, the energy they generate needs to be stored in either hydrogen or batteries for later use.</p><p><blockquote>综合石油和天然气公司负责勘探、生产和精炼等过程的所有三个方面，也在投资氢和电池。因为太阳能和风能等可再生能源不能提供恒定的能量流，所以它们产生的能量需要储存在氢气或电池中以备后用。</blockquote></p><p> Storing energy can be profitable since it allows companies like Shell and British Petroleum to act as energy traders that leverage supply and demand. Shell, for example, plans to increase its power trading business from 255 Terawatts per hour (TWh) now to 560TWh in 2030, Romeo said.</p><p><blockquote>储存能源可以盈利，因为它允许壳牌和英国石油公司等公司充当利用供需的能源交易商。罗密欧表示，例如，壳牌计划将其电力交易业务从目前的 255 太瓦/小时 (TWh) 增加到 2030 年的 560TWh。</blockquote></p><p> The battery energy storage market is expected to reach $19.7 billion by 2027, according to Fortune Business Insights. However, that’s a drop in the bucket compared to the global oil and gas exploration and production market, which is expected to reach an estimated $2.1 trillion this year, according to IBISWorld.</p><p><blockquote>根据《财富》商业洞察，到 2027 年，电池储能市场预计将达到 197 亿美元。然而，与全球石油和天然气勘探和生产市场相比，这只是九牛一毛，根据 IBISWorld 的数据，今年的全球石油和天然气勘探和生产市场预计将达到 2.1 万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Which Oil Companies Could Still Thrive</b></p><p><blockquote><b>哪些石油公司仍然可以蓬勃发展</b></blockquote></p><p> Potentialwinners in making the transitionas electric vehicles eat into their fossil fuel business include Shell.</p><p><blockquote>随着电动汽车蚕食化石燃料业务，实现转型的潜在赢家包括壳牌。</blockquote></p><p> “I like Shell -- I believe they see energy transition from the right angle,” Romeo said. “They view themselves as an energy center that delivers lower-carbon energy solutions. They don’t seek to own capacity but instead, they plan to deliver de-carbonization solutions to their customers via a combination of renewable power, carbon credits, and other offsets.”</p><p><blockquote>“罗密欧说：”我喜欢壳牌公司--我相信他们从正确的角度看待能源转型。“他们将自己视为提供低碳能源解决方案的能源中心。他们并不寻求拥有自己的产能，而是计划通过可再生能源、碳信用额和其他抵消措施的结合，为客户提供脱碳解决方案”。</blockquote></p><p> Edmunds’ Caldwell believes the traditional oil and gas companies have some staying power, despite recent moves by states and nations to limit the sale of new gas-powered vehicles over the next several decades.</p><p><blockquote>埃德蒙兹的考德威尔认为，尽管各州和民族最近采取措施限制未来几十年新燃气动力汽车的销售，但传统的石油和天然气公司仍有一定的持久力。</blockquote></p><p> “Gas-powered vehicles are not going away overnight. The bans are on new vehicle sales and not ownership of gas-powered vehicles. I think there will be a long window for the oil and gas industries to pivot. It is not a flip of the switch and they’re gone,” Caldwell said.</p><p><blockquote>“燃气动力汽车不会在一夜之间消失。禁令针对的是新车销售，而不是燃气动力汽车的所有权。我认为，石油和天然气行业将有一个很长的转型窗口。这不是一个转动开关就会消失的，”考德威尔说。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610613172068","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What the Growing Ascendance of Electric Vehicles Means for Oil and Gas Stocks<blockquote>电动汽车日益增长的优势对石油和天然气股票意味着什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat the Growing Ascendance of Electric Vehicles Means for Oil and Gas Stocks<blockquote>电动汽车日益增长的优势对石油和天然气股票意味着什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Street</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-24 15:01</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>As Tesla and other carmakers ramp up the number of EVs on the road, oil and gas companies are trying out a host of strategies to compensate.</b>  Electric vehicles (EVs) are poised to run over the oil and gas industry -- at least that’s what it seems like at first glance.</p><p><blockquote><b>随着特斯拉和其他汽车制造商增加上路电动汽车的数量，石油和天然气公司正在尝试一系列策略来弥补。</b>电动汽车（EV）即将席卷石油和天然气行业--至少乍一看是这样。</blockquote></p><p> By 2050, the vast majority of transport vehicles on the road across the globe are expected to be electric, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). And the transportation industry contributes roughly half of all the business for integrated oil and gas companies, which handle all three aspects of the process from exploration to production to refining, according to Giacomo Romeo, integrated oil and gas analyst with Jefferies Group.</p><p><blockquote>据国际能源署（IEA）称，到2050年，全球道路上的绝大多数运输车辆预计将是电动的。杰富瑞集团 (Jefferies Group) 综合石油和天然气分析师贾科莫·罗密欧 (Giacomo Romeo) 表示，运输行业约占综合石油和天然气公司所有业务的一半，这些公司处理从勘探到生产再到炼油的所有三个方面。</blockquote></p><p> Electric passenger vehicles such as the Tesla&nbsp;(<b>TSLA</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;Model 3, Nissan’s&nbsp;(<b>NSANY</b>)&nbsp;Leaf, Hyundai’s&nbsp;(<b>HYMTF</b>)&nbsp;Kona Electric and others are expected to account for 86% of all passenger vehicles on the road by 2050,up dramaticallyfrom just 1% last year. Meanwhile, electric vans are expected to soar to 84% of all vans from 0% last year, while 79% of buses and 59% of heavy trucks will be electric, up from 2% and 0%, respectively, according to IEA’s report “Net Zero by 2050: A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector.”</p><p><blockquote>电动乘用车，如特斯拉（<b>特斯拉</b>) -获取报告 Model 3，日产 (<b>恩萨尼</b>) 聆风，现代的 (<b>HYMTF</b>) 预计到 2050 年，Kona Electric 和其他公司将占道路上所有乘用车的 86%，比去年的 1% 大幅上升。与此同时，根据国际能源署的报告《到2050年实现净零：全球能源行业路线图》，电动货车预计将从去年的0%飙升至84%，而79%的公共汽车和59%的重型卡车将是电动的，分别从2%和0%有所上升。</blockquote></p><p> Catalysts driving this growth in the U.S. are expected to come from car manufacturers increasing both the total number of electric vehicles and the number of models they offer, government agencies offering incentives to consumers to purchase electric vehicles and support from President Biden to increase the use of electric vehicles, according to Edmunds. The automotive research firm released a report this year that found the U.S. electric vehicle market is on track to post record sales this year, with EVs expected to represent 2.5% of U.S. vehicle sales this year, up from 1.9% in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>推动美国这一增长的催化剂预计将来自汽车制造商增加电动汽车的总数和提供的车型数量、政府机构为消费者购买电动汽车提供激励措施以及拜登总统支持增加电动汽车的使用埃德蒙兹表示。这家汽车研究公司今年发布的一份报告发现，美国电动汽车市场今年的销量有望创下历史新高，电动汽车预计将占今年美国汽车销量的2.5%，高于2020年的1.9%。</blockquote></p><p> “Price and choice of models are the biggest barriers to buying EVs for consumers,” said Jessica Caldwell, executive director of insights for Edmunds. “You always pay more for EVs and once people start shopping for a car, they start with the intent of buying an EV, but when they begin to compare they see they can get a bigger one with more features than an EV. People equate bigger with better and think it’s a nicer car and more worthy.\"</p><p><blockquote>“Edmunds insights 执行董事杰西卡-考德威尔（Jessica Caldwell）说：”价格和车型选择是消费者购买电动汽车的最大障碍。“你总是要花更多的钱买电动汽车，一旦人们开始购买汽车，他们一开始就打算买电动汽车，但当他们开始比较时，他们发现他们可以买到比电动汽车功能更多的更大的电动汽车。人们把更大等同于更好，认为这是一辆更好、更有价值的车”。</blockquote></p><p> Recently, consumers’ preference hasswung to larger vehiclesand those tend to be gas-powered. But this year, for the first time, consumers will have the option of purchasing electric trucks, which expands the consumer EV categories beyond just passenger cars and SUVs, Caldwell noted.</p><p><blockquote>最近，消费者越来越倾向于大型车辆，而这些车辆往往是汽油动力的。但考德威尔指出，今年，消费者将首次可以选择购买电动卡车，这将消费电动汽车类别扩大到乘用车和 SUV 之外。</blockquote></p><p> By 2030, EV sales worldwide are expected to reach 31.1 million and represent approximately 32% of all new car sales, up from 2.5 million EVs sold last year, according to Deloitte Insights’ “Electric Vehicles Setting a Course for 2030” report.</p><p><blockquote>根据德勤洞察公司（Deloitte Insights）的《电动汽车为2030年设定路线》报告，到2030年，全球电动汽车销量预计将达到3110万辆，约占所有新车销量的32%，高于去年的250万辆。</blockquote></p><p> However, oil and gas companies, especially Royal Dutch Shell&nbsp;(<b>RDS.A</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;and British Petroleum&nbsp;(<b>BP ADR</b>), likely won't go the way of the dinosaurs as demand for their fossil fuels takes a deep dive, analysts say.</p><p><blockquote>然而，石油和天然气公司，尤其是荷兰皇家壳牌公司（<b>RDS.A</b>）-获取报告和英国石油公司（<b>BP ADR</b>分析师表示，随着对化石燃料的需求大幅下降，它们可能不会步恐龙的后尘。</blockquote></p><p> “I’m not sure the transportation industry will get to 100% EV,” said Jamie Hamilton, director and leader in the UK automotive sector strategy and operations for Deloitte. “Passenger cars may get there in the next five to 10 years depending on prices coming down and charging infrastructure rollouts, but freight and heavy vehicles may not” due to their weight.</p><p><blockquote>“德勤英国汽车行业战略与运营总监兼负责人杰米-汉密尔顿（Jamie Hamilton）说：”我不确定交通运输行业能否实现 100% 电动汽车。“乘用车可能会在未来五到十年内达到这一水平，这取决于价格下降和充电基础设施的推出，但货运和重型车辆可能不会”，因为它们的重量。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Dinosaurs Learn a New Dance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>恐龙学习新舞蹈</b></blockquote></p><p> The oil and gas industry is exploring a number of workarounds to avoid the financial hit from a potential decline in oil and gas demand brought on by electric vehicles. They received a taste of what a big dip in transportation demand would look like when COVID-19 hit and people hunkered down at home versus heading into the office or traveling.</p><p><blockquote>石油和天然气行业正在探索许多变通办法，以避免电动汽车带来的石油和天然气需求潜在下降带来的财务打击。他们尝到了当新冠肺炎来袭，人们窝在家里而不是去办公室或旅行时，交通需求的大幅下降会是什么样子。</blockquote></p><p> “Most of the oil and gas industry already had an eye on the changes going on in the larger market for some time, so the growth of EVs is not a surprise. But with the decline in driving and commuting with COVID, this was more stark than people predicted,” said Kate Hardin, executive director of Deloitte Energy, Resources and Industrials research center. “That took commuting down by 40% to 50% in some communities.”</p><p><blockquote>“德勤能源、资源和工业研究中心执行主任凯特-哈丁（Kate Hardin）说：”大多数石油和天然气行业已经关注了更大市场的变化一段时间，因此电动汽车的增长并不令人意外。但随着驾驶和通勤使用 COVID 的减少，这比人们预测的要明显得多。“这使得一些社区的通勤率下降了 40% 到 50%”。</blockquote></p><p> Hardin said there has been a lot of discussion among large oil and gas companies to explore new business models, such as developing solar energy, battery technology and energy storage.</p><p><blockquote>哈丁表示，大型石油和天然气公司之间已经进行了大量讨论，以探索新的商业模式，例如开发太阳能、电池技术和储能。</blockquote></p><p> Many fossil fuel companies are investing in power generation, such as renewable energy including solar and wind, Romeo said. Currently, the oil and gas industry is investing 15% of its total capital into power generation, and that is expected to increase to 25% after 2025.</p><p><blockquote>罗密欧说，许多化石燃料公司正在投资发电，例如太阳能和风能等可再生能源。目前，石油和天然气行业将其总资本的15%投资于发电，预计2025年后这一比例将增至25%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> However, the power generation business has returns of 10% at best, while the downstream business of refining fossil fuels has returns of 10% to 15% and the upstream business of extracting and producing the fuels about 20%, Romeo said. While the oil and gas business generally has higher returns, Rome said it is also far more volatile than the power generation business.</p><p><blockquote>然而，罗密欧表示，发电业务的回报率最多只有10%，而下游提炼化石燃料业务的回报率为10%至15%，上游提取和生产燃料业务的回报率约为20%。虽然石油和天然气业务通常具有较高的回报，但罗马表示，该业务的波动性也远远高于发电业务。</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, the cost of capital for the oil and gas business is higher than that for the renewables industry, due to increasing environmental, social and governance (ESG)- related concerns in the oil and gas business, and declining interest from investors.</p><p><blockquote>此外，由于石油和天然气业务对环境、社会和治理（ESG）相关的担忧日益增加，以及投资者兴趣下降，石油和天然气业务的资本成本高于可再生能源行业。</blockquote></p><p> “There is always a balance that has to be weighed,” Romeo said.</p><p><blockquote>“罗密欧说：”总有一个天平需要权衡。</blockquote></p><p> <b>One-Stop Shop Strategy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>一站式商店策略</b></blockquote></p><p> The larger oil and gas companies are also evaluating the design and use of their retail gas stations as consumers’ needs and behavior are expected to change.</p><p><blockquote>随着消费者的需求和行为预计会发生变化，大型石油和天然气公司也在评估其零售加油站的设计和使用。</blockquote></p><p> Companies with a large network of gas stations are considering transitioning them to EV charging stations, and those that have convenience stores as part of their stations expect to make even more money off of them once they are converted. That’s because charging an EV typically takes significantly longer than filling an internal combustion engine vehicle with gas.</p><p><blockquote>拥有大型加油站网络的公司正在考虑将其过渡到电动汽车充电站，而那些将便利店作为加油站一部分的公司预计，一旦它们被转换，就能从中赚到更多的钱。这是因为给电动汽车充电通常比给内燃机汽车加满汽油所需的时间要长得多。</blockquote></p><p> Companies in Europe and the U.S. actually get more revenue from their non-fuel business at their retail stations than they do from fuel, Romeo said.</p><p><blockquote>罗密欧说，欧洲和美国的公司实际上从零售站的非燃料业务中获得的收入比从燃料中获得的收入更多。</blockquote></p><p> “Oil companies see [that] as people charge their cars, they will spend more time in retail stores drinking coffee, shopping for groceries,” Romeo said. “BP and Shell are already talking about this.”</p><p><blockquote>“罗密欧说：”石油公司认为，随着人们给汽车充电，他们会花更多的时间在零售店喝咖啡、购买食品杂货。“英国石油公司和壳牌公司已经在讨论这个问题了。”</blockquote></p><p> However, people will also be using retail charging stations less often because they can charge their cars at home, at work or at other places that have charging stations.</p><p><blockquote>然而，人们也将减少使用零售充电站的频率，因为他们可以在家里、工作场所或其他有充电站的地方给汽车充电。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Other Survival Strategies</b></p><p><blockquote><b>其他生存策略</b></blockquote></p><p> Biofuels, which are produced from organic material such as corn, other vegetables and animal fats, are another area that oil and gas companies are exploring. For the aviation industry, biofuel is currently being mixed in with traditional jet fuel, but Boeing BA, for example, plans to fly its fleet using 100% biofuel by 2030, according to Reuters.</p><p><blockquote>生物燃料由玉米、其他蔬菜和动物脂肪等有机材料制成，是石油和天然气公司正在探索的另一个领域。据路透社报道，对于航空业来说，生物燃料目前正与传统喷气燃料混合使用，但据路透社报道，波音公司计划到 2030 年让其机队使用 100% 生物燃料飞行。</blockquote></p><p> Biofuels have high returns on investment too, Romeo noted. One company, Finland-based Neste (OTC: NTOIY), recently moved away from traditional refining to become the world’s largest renewable diesel producer, generating 30% returns compared to 12% for its traditional refining business.</p><p><blockquote>罗密欧指出，生物燃料的投资回报率也很高。总部位于芬兰的 Neste（OTC：NTOIY）公司最近摆脱了传统炼油业务，成为世界上最大的可再生柴油生产商，其传统炼油业务的回报率为 30%，而其传统炼油业务的回报率为 12%。</blockquote></p><p> Integrated oil and gas companies, which handle all three aspects of the process including exploration, production and refining, are also investing in hydrogen and batteries. Because renewable energy sources such as solar and wind do not provide a constant stream of energy, the energy they generate needs to be stored in either hydrogen or batteries for later use.</p><p><blockquote>综合石油和天然气公司负责勘探、生产和精炼等过程的所有三个方面，也在投资氢和电池。因为太阳能和风能等可再生能源不能提供恒定的能量流，所以它们产生的能量需要储存在氢气或电池中以备后用。</blockquote></p><p> Storing energy can be profitable since it allows companies like Shell and British Petroleum to act as energy traders that leverage supply and demand. Shell, for example, plans to increase its power trading business from 255 Terawatts per hour (TWh) now to 560TWh in 2030, Romeo said.</p><p><blockquote>储存能源可以盈利，因为它允许壳牌和英国石油公司等公司充当利用供需的能源交易商。罗密欧表示，例如，壳牌计划将其电力交易业务从目前的 255 太瓦/小时 (TWh) 增加到 2030 年的 560TWh。</blockquote></p><p> The battery energy storage market is expected to reach $19.7 billion by 2027, according to Fortune Business Insights. However, that’s a drop in the bucket compared to the global oil and gas exploration and production market, which is expected to reach an estimated $2.1 trillion this year, according to IBISWorld.</p><p><blockquote>根据《财富》商业洞察，到 2027 年，电池储能市场预计将达到 197 亿美元。然而，与全球石油和天然气勘探和生产市场相比，这只是九牛一毛，根据 IBISWorld 的数据，今年的全球石油和天然气勘探和生产市场预计将达到 2.1 万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Which Oil Companies Could Still Thrive</b></p><p><blockquote><b>哪些石油公司仍然可以蓬勃发展</b></blockquote></p><p> Potentialwinners in making the transitionas electric vehicles eat into their fossil fuel business include Shell.</p><p><blockquote>随着电动汽车蚕食化石燃料业务，实现转型的潜在赢家包括壳牌。</blockquote></p><p> “I like Shell -- I believe they see energy transition from the right angle,” Romeo said. “They view themselves as an energy center that delivers lower-carbon energy solutions. They don’t seek to own capacity but instead, they plan to deliver de-carbonization solutions to their customers via a combination of renewable power, carbon credits, and other offsets.”</p><p><blockquote>“罗密欧说：”我喜欢壳牌公司--我相信他们从正确的角度看待能源转型。“他们将自己视为提供低碳能源解决方案的能源中心。他们并不寻求拥有自己的产能，而是计划通过可再生能源、碳信用额和其他抵消措施的结合，为客户提供脱碳解决方案”。</blockquote></p><p> Edmunds’ Caldwell believes the traditional oil and gas companies have some staying power, despite recent moves by states and nations to limit the sale of new gas-powered vehicles over the next several decades.</p><p><blockquote>埃德蒙兹的考德威尔认为，尽管各州和民族最近采取措施限制未来几十年新燃气动力汽车的销售，但传统的石油和天然气公司仍有一定的持久力。</blockquote></p><p> “Gas-powered vehicles are not going away overnight. The bans are on new vehicle sales and not ownership of gas-powered vehicles. I think there will be a long window for the oil and gas industries to pivot. It is not a flip of the switch and they’re gone,” Caldwell said.</p><p><blockquote>“燃气动力汽车不会在一夜之间消失。禁令针对的是新车销售，而不是燃气动力汽车的所有权。我认为，石油和天然气行业将有一个很长的转型窗口。这不是一个转动开关就会消失的，”考德威尔说。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/what-growing-ascendance-of-evs-means-for-oil-and-gas-stocks\">The Street</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"RDS.A":"荷兰皇家壳牌石油A类股","BP":"英国石油","NSANY":"日产汽车","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/what-growing-ascendance-of-evs-means-for-oil-and-gas-stocks","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170018171","content_text":"As Tesla and other carmakers ramp up the number of EVs on the road, oil and gas companies are trying out a host of strategies to compensate.\n\nElectric vehicles (EVs) are poised to run over the oil and gas industry -- at least that’s what it seems like at first glance.\nBy 2050, the vast majority of transport vehicles on the road across the globe are expected to be electric, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). And the transportation industry contributes roughly half of all the business for integrated oil and gas companies, which handle all three aspects of the process from exploration to production to refining, according to Giacomo Romeo, integrated oil and gas analyst with Jefferies Group.\nElectric passenger vehicles such as the Tesla (TSLA) -Get Report Model 3, Nissan’s (NSANY) Leaf, Hyundai’s (HYMTF) Kona Electric and others are expected to account for 86% of all passenger vehicles on the road by 2050,up dramaticallyfrom just 1% last year. Meanwhile, electric vans are expected to soar to 84% of all vans from 0% last year, while 79% of buses and 59% of heavy trucks will be electric, up from 2% and 0%, respectively, according to IEA’s report “Net Zero by 2050: A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector.”\nCatalysts driving this growth in the U.S. are expected to come from car manufacturers increasing both the total number of electric vehicles and the number of models they offer, government agencies offering incentives to consumers to purchase electric vehicles and support from President Biden to increase the use of electric vehicles, according to Edmunds. The automotive research firm released a report this year that found the U.S. electric vehicle market is on track to post record sales this year, with EVs expected to represent 2.5% of U.S. vehicle sales this year, up from 1.9% in 2020.\n“Price and choice of models are the biggest barriers to buying EVs for consumers,” said Jessica Caldwell, executive director of insights for Edmunds. “You always pay more for EVs and once people start shopping for a car, they start with the intent of buying an EV, but when they begin to compare they see they can get a bigger one with more features than an EV. People equate bigger with better and think it’s a nicer car and more worthy.\"\nRecently, consumers’ preference hasswung to larger vehiclesand those tend to be gas-powered. But this year, for the first time, consumers will have the option of purchasing electric trucks, which expands the consumer EV categories beyond just passenger cars and SUVs, Caldwell noted.\nBy 2030, EV sales worldwide are expected to reach 31.1 million and represent approximately 32% of all new car sales, up from 2.5 million EVs sold last year, according to Deloitte Insights’ “Electric Vehicles Setting a Course for 2030” report.\nHowever, oil and gas companies, especially Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) -Get Report and British Petroleum (BP ADR), likely won't go the way of the dinosaurs as demand for their fossil fuels takes a deep dive, analysts say.\n“I’m not sure the transportation industry will get to 100% EV,” said Jamie Hamilton, director and leader in the UK automotive sector strategy and operations for Deloitte. “Passenger cars may get there in the next five to 10 years depending on prices coming down and charging infrastructure rollouts, but freight and heavy vehicles may not” due to their weight.\nDinosaurs Learn a New Dance\nThe oil and gas industry is exploring a number of workarounds to avoid the financial hit from a potential decline in oil and gas demand brought on by electric vehicles. They received a taste of what a big dip in transportation demand would look like when COVID-19 hit and people hunkered down at home versus heading into the office or traveling.\n“Most of the oil and gas industry already had an eye on the changes going on in the larger market for some time, so the growth of EVs is not a surprise. But with the decline in driving and commuting with COVID, this was more stark than people predicted,” said Kate Hardin, executive director of Deloitte Energy, Resources and Industrials research center. “That took commuting down by 40% to 50% in some communities.”\nHardin said there has been a lot of discussion among large oil and gas companies to explore new business models, such as developing solar energy, battery technology and energy storage.\nMany fossil fuel companies are investing in power generation, such as renewable energy including solar and wind, Romeo said. Currently, the oil and gas industry is investing 15% of its total capital into power generation, and that is expected to increase to 25% after 2025.\nHowever, the power generation business has returns of 10% at best, while the downstream business of refining fossil fuels has returns of 10% to 15% and the upstream business of extracting and producing the fuels about 20%, Romeo said. While the oil and gas business generally has higher returns, Rome said it is also far more volatile than the power generation business.\nAdditionally, the cost of capital for the oil and gas business is higher than that for the renewables industry, due to increasing environmental, social and governance (ESG)- related concerns in the oil and gas business, and declining interest from investors.\n“There is always a balance that has to be weighed,” Romeo said.\nOne-Stop Shop Strategy\nThe larger oil and gas companies are also evaluating the design and use of their retail gas stations as consumers’ needs and behavior are expected to change.\nCompanies with a large network of gas stations are considering transitioning them to EV charging stations, and those that have convenience stores as part of their stations expect to make even more money off of them once they are converted. That’s because charging an EV typically takes significantly longer than filling an internal combustion engine vehicle with gas.\nCompanies in Europe and the U.S. actually get more revenue from their non-fuel business at their retail stations than they do from fuel, Romeo said.\n“Oil companies see [that] as people charge their cars, they will spend more time in retail stores drinking coffee, shopping for groceries,” Romeo said. “BP and Shell are already talking about this.”\nHowever, people will also be using retail charging stations less often because they can charge their cars at home, at work or at other places that have charging stations.\nOther Survival Strategies\nBiofuels, which are produced from organic material such as corn, other vegetables and animal fats, are another area that oil and gas companies are exploring. For the aviation industry, biofuel is currently being mixed in with traditional jet fuel, but Boeing BA, for example, plans to fly its fleet using 100% biofuel by 2030, according to Reuters.\nBiofuels have high returns on investment too, Romeo noted. One company, Finland-based Neste (OTC: NTOIY), recently moved away from traditional refining to become the world’s largest renewable diesel producer, generating 30% returns compared to 12% for its traditional refining business.\nIntegrated oil and gas companies, which handle all three aspects of the process including exploration, production and refining, are also investing in hydrogen and batteries. Because renewable energy sources such as solar and wind do not provide a constant stream of energy, the energy they generate needs to be stored in either hydrogen or batteries for later use.\nStoring energy can be profitable since it allows companies like Shell and British Petroleum to act as energy traders that leverage supply and demand. Shell, for example, plans to increase its power trading business from 255 Terawatts per hour (TWh) now to 560TWh in 2030, Romeo said.\nThe battery energy storage market is expected to reach $19.7 billion by 2027, according to Fortune Business Insights. However, that’s a drop in the bucket compared to the global oil and gas exploration and production market, which is expected to reach an estimated $2.1 trillion this year, according to IBISWorld.\nWhich Oil Companies Could Still Thrive\nPotentialwinners in making the transitionas electric vehicles eat into their fossil fuel business include Shell.\n“I like Shell -- I believe they see energy transition from the right angle,” Romeo said. “They view themselves as an energy center that delivers lower-carbon energy solutions. They don’t seek to own capacity but instead, they plan to deliver de-carbonization solutions to their customers via a combination of renewable power, carbon credits, and other offsets.”\nEdmunds’ Caldwell believes the traditional oil and gas companies have some staying power, despite recent moves by states and nations to limit the sale of new gas-powered vehicles over the next several decades.\n“Gas-powered vehicles are not going away overnight. The bans are on new vehicle sales and not ownership of gas-powered vehicles. I think there will be a long window for the oil and gas industries to pivot. It is not a flip of the switch and they’re gone,” Caldwell said.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"RDS.A":0.9,"NSANY":0.9,"BP":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,"HYMTF":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2071,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160365779,"gmtCreate":1623772985791,"gmtModify":1631886393985,"author":{"id":"3583447705533959","authorId":"3583447705533959","name":"Kmj121","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c59f0eacf93cd197ec1e2105b1796413","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583447705533959","idStr":"3583447705533959"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOS\">$SOS Limited(SOS)$</a>Gg","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOS\">$SOS Limited(SOS)$</a>Gg","text":"$SOS Limited(SOS)$Gg","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160365779","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1892,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":184473919,"gmtCreate":1623723096431,"gmtModify":1631885826791,"author":{"id":"3583447705533959","authorId":"3583447705533959","name":"Kmj121","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c59f0eacf93cd197ec1e2105b1796413","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583447705533959","idStr":"3583447705533959"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BB\">$BlackBerry(BB)$</a>why bb&nbsp;keep sleeping one","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BB\">$BlackBerry(BB)$</a>why bb&nbsp;keep sleeping one","text":"$BlackBerry(BB)$why bb keep sleeping one","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/184473919","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2090,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":134932777,"gmtCreate":1622199077599,"gmtModify":1634182934480,"author":{"id":"3583447705533959","authorId":"3583447705533959","name":"Kmj121","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c59f0eacf93cd197ec1e2105b1796413","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583447705533959","idStr":"3583447705533959"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>及时上车","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>及时上车","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$及时上车","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66947a46092de49ba7321364b5cd9b7d","width":"1242","height":"2001"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/134932777","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2158,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":177197429,"gmtCreate":1627185283161,"gmtModify":1633767342987,"author":{"id":"3583447705533959","authorId":"3583447705533959","name":"Kmj121","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c59f0eacf93cd197ec1e2105b1796413","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583447705533959","idStr":"3583447705533959"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"no","listText":"no","text":"no","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177197429","repostId":"1112927800","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1112927800","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627089375,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1112927800?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-24 09:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Will NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks<blockquote>蔚来股票会追随特斯拉的脚步吗？这两只电动汽车股票之间需要考虑什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112927800","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Let's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.NIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.NIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.Both companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV p","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Let's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.</li>  <li>NIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.</li>  <li>NIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f749c70c8a2af3e18d5f6cecc72bfbb\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"704\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>ipopba/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>让我们来看看蔚来与今天的特斯拉相比如何，蔚来独特的卖点，以及两家公司之间的相似之处。</li><li>蔚来是一个高增长的选择，相对于特斯拉的估值，它似乎并不算太贵。</li><li>然而，蔚来并不是一只低风险股票，它可能不是每个人的好选择。投资者还应该考虑蔚来汽车相对于传统汽车公司的估值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ipopba/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO, Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading EV players, and has, through an attractive brand and its unique BaaS offering, attracted a lot of interest from consumers and investors. Today, however, the company is still way smaller than Tesla (TSLA), which is currently leading the global EV market. NIO is focused on its home market right now, which was true when Tesla was a smaller company as well, but NIO will try to grab market share in overseas markets as well. Shares are pricing in a lot of growth already, but if NIO can replicate Tesla's success, that could be more than justified.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来（蔚来）是中国领先的电动汽车企业之一，通过有吸引力的品牌和独特的BaaS产品，吸引了消费者和投资者的极大兴趣。然而，如今该公司的规模仍然远小于目前引领全球电动汽车市场的特斯拉 (TSLA)。蔚来目前专注于国内市场，特斯拉还是一家小公司时也是如此，但蔚来也将努力在海外市场抢占市场份额。股价已经大幅上涨，但如果蔚来能够复制特斯拉的成功，这可能是完全合理的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO And TSLA Stock Prices</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来和特斯拉股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Both companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV pureplays rise rapidly. The combination of growing market share for EVs, accommodating policies such as subsidies for EV purchases, and massive monetary stimulus let shares of NIO and TSLA rise rapidly. NIO is up 245% over the last year, while TSLA is up 101% over the same time. Both companies are currently trading below their all-time highs, however, which were hit in early 2021 before market sentiment for EV pureplays cooled to some degree.</p><p><blockquote>2020 年，两家公司都受益于人们对电动汽车日益增长的兴趣，这一趋势导致大多数电动汽车纯玩家的股价迅速上涨。电动汽车市场份额不断增长、电动汽车购买补贴等宽松政策以及大规模货币刺激措施相结合，蔚来和特斯拉的股价迅速上涨。蔚来去年上涨了 245%，而特斯拉同期上涨了 101%。然而，这两家公司目前的股价均低于历史高点，该高点在 2021 年初触及，之后市场对电动汽车 pureplays 的情绪有所降温。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ff5ce865807df85283775d2293b41af\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Taking a quick look at analyst price targets, we see that Tesla is trading almost perfectly in line with the consensus, whereas NIO trades about 30% below the analyst target. If the analyst community is right, then NIO is a substantially better investment right here, as Tesla is not expected to see its shares rise meaningfully over the next year, whereas NIO has significant upside to the analyst price target.</p><p><blockquote>快速浏览一下分析师的目标价，我们发现特斯拉的交易价格几乎完全符合共识，而蔚来的交易价格比分析师目标价低约 30%。如果分析师界是正确的，那么蔚来在这里是一个更好的投资，因为预计特斯拉的股价明年不会大幅上涨，而蔚来的分析师目标价有很大的上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO Similar To Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来和特斯拉相似吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that question depends on what you focus on. There are similarities between the two companies, but there are also differences. One could thus say that, in some ways, the two are similar, but in others, they are not. Let's look at a couple of things:</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案取决于你关注的是什么。这两家公司有相似之处，但也有不同之处。因此，人们可以说，在某些方面，这两者是相似的，但在其他方面，它们不是。让我们看几件事：</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Both companies are focused on the EV space, although Tesla has, over the years, been building out a couple of other businesses as well, such as energy storage. Most of Tesla's revenues are generated through selling electric vehicles, which is also how NIO operates. Both companies are focused on the premium segment of EVs, selling higher-priced vehicles that compete with brands such as BMW, Mercedes, and Lexus. Both companies offer a small range of different vehicles, in Tesla's case those are the well-known S, X, 3, and Y, whereas NIO offers a sedan (ET7), and three SUVs (EC6, ES6, ES8). Despite the fact that NIO is a way smaller company today, the model lineups of the two companies do thus not differ too much.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都专注于电动汽车领域，尽管特斯拉多年来也一直在发展其他一些业务，例如储能。特斯拉的大部分收入是通过销售电动汽车产生的，这也是蔚来的运营方式。两家公司都专注于电动汽车的高端市场，销售与宝马、梅赛德斯和雷克萨斯等品牌竞争的高价汽车。两家公司都提供少量不同的车辆，特斯拉是众所周知的 S、X、3 和 Y，而蔚来则提供轿车 (ET7) 和三款 SUV (EC6、ES6、ES8)。尽管蔚来如今是一家规模较小的公司，但两家公司的车型阵容并没有太大区别。</blockquote></p><p> Both companies offer some type of charging infrastructure to their customers, in Tesla's case, that's the Supercharger network, where Tesla owners can charge their cars with up to 250kW, depending on what version of Supercharger is installed. NIO is following a different approach, offering a battery-as-a-service solution to its customers. NIO owners can get their battery switched out to a fully-charged battery at NIO's stations, a process that takes a couple of minutes and is thus significantly quicker compared to the regular EV charging offered by Tesla and other EV players. BaaS thus has advantages when it comes to the time it takes for a charge/swap, but it should be noted that Tesla's Superchargers are way more common around the world compared to NIO's battery-swapping stations. Rolling out that feature in additional markets will require large capital expenditures, but NIO's offering is a unique selling point compared to what all other EV players, including Tesla, are offering. It remains to be seen whether that will ultimately pay off, but this could become a major advantage for NIO as competition in the EV space is heating up.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都为客户提供某种类型的充电基础设施，就特斯拉而言，这就是增压器网络，特斯拉车主可以在其中为汽车充电，功率高达 250kW，具体取决于安装的增压器版本。蔚来正在采取不同的方法，为客户提供电池即服务解决方案。蔚来车主可以在蔚来充电站将电池更换为充满电的电池，这一过程只需几分钟，因此与特斯拉和其他电动汽车制造商提供的常规电动汽车充电相比要快得多。因此，BaaS在充电/更换时间方面具有优势，但应该注意的是，与蔚来的换电站相比，特斯拉的超级充电站在世界各地更为常见。在其他市场推出该功能将需要大量资本支出，但与包括特斯拉在内的所有其他电动汽车厂商所提供的产品相比，蔚来汽车的产品是一个独特的卖点。这是否最终会带来回报还有待观察，但随着电动汽车领域的竞争日益激烈，这可能成为蔚来的一大优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Size, growth, and valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>规模、增长和估值</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The two companies differ significantly in size, both when it comes to revenues and vehicle sales, as well as when it comes to the market value of the two companies. NIO has delivered22,000 vehicles in Q2, up 112% year over year, for an annual pace of around 90,000 vehicles. Tesla, meanwhile, has delivered 201,000 vehicles during Q2, up from 103,000 vehicles delivered during Q2 2020. This is strong growth on a year-over-year basis, although slightly below 100%, and thus below the growth rate that NIO is generating for now.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司的规模差异很大，无论是在收入和汽车销量方面，还是在两家公司的市值方面。蔚来第二季度交付了22,000辆汽车，同比增长112%，年增长率约为90,000辆。与此同时，特斯拉在第二季度交付了 201,000 辆汽车，高于 2020 年第二季度的 103,000 辆汽车。这是同比的强劲增长，尽管略低于 100%，因此低于蔚来目前的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla delivers around 9x as many vehicles compared to NIO per quarter, when we look at the market capitalizations of the two companies, we see that the ratio is almost exactly the same, as Tesla's market cap of $640 billion is ~9x as high as that of NIO, at $72 billion. At similar growth rates, that would make perfect sense, but it looks like NIO might be the better deal for now, as it trades at a comparable valuation while generating better growth. This will be especially true in the coming quarters, where Tesla's growth is expected to slow down:</p><p><blockquote>与蔚来相比，特斯拉每季度交付的汽车数量约为 9 倍，当我们查看两家公司的市值时，我们会发现这一比例几乎完全相同，因为特斯拉 6400 亿美元的市值约为 9 倍蔚来的 720 亿美元。在类似的增长率下，这将是完全有意义的，但看起来蔚来目前可能是更好的交易，因为它的估值相当，同时产生了更好的增长。未来几个季度尤其如此，特斯拉的增长预计将放缓：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a986ea65130206f99961a46ce6cfed55\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Tesla is forecasted to grow its revenue from $49 billion in 2021 to $83 billion in 2023, for an annual growth rate of 30%. NIO, meanwhile, is expected to see its revenue explode upwards from $5.4 billion to $12.8 billion between 2021 and 2023, for an annual growth rate of 54%. NIO is thus expected to grow way faster than Tesla over the next two years, on a relative basis. This shouldn't be a surprise, to be honest, as the law of large numbers dictates that maintaining massive growth rates becomes increasingly hard for a company the bigger it gets, and Tesla seems to have hit that point by now -- adding 50%+ a year to its top line will not be possible forever. This isn't even necessarily Tesla's fault, in fact, many high-quality growth companies have experienced the same. But investors should still consider this important fact -- Tesla's growth in coming years will be less exciting compared to what we have seen in the past, and peers, such as NIO, are growing faster.</p><p><blockquote>预计特斯拉的收入将从2021年的490亿美元增长到2023年的830亿美元，年增长率为30%。与此同时，蔚来预计其收入将在 2021 年至 2023 年间从 54 亿美元激增至 128 亿美元，年增长率为 54%。因此，相对而言，预计未来两年蔚来的增长速度将远远超过特斯拉。老实说，这并不奇怪，因为大数定律表明，对于一家公司来说，保持巨大的增长率变得越来越困难，而特斯拉现在似乎已经达到了这一点——每年增加 50% 以上的收入是不可能永远的。这甚至不一定是特斯拉的错，事实上，许多优质成长型公司都经历过同样的事情。但投资者仍然应该考虑这个重要事实——与我们过去看到的相比，特斯拉未来几年的增长将不那么令人兴奋，而蔚来等同行的增长速度更快。</blockquote></p><p> The same holds true when we take a longer-term view. Revenue estimates for 2025 rest at$22.6 billionfor NIO, up another 80% from the 2023 estimate, and up 320% from what analysts are forecasting for 2021. Tesla, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate revenues of $122.5 billion in 2025 -- a large number, but up by a comparatively weak 48% from 2023, and up by a total of 150% versus 2021. Between 2021 and 2025, NIO will thus 4x its revenue, while Tesla will 2.5x its revenue in the same time span -- a meaningful difference that should, all else equal, allow for a premium valuation for NIO, in the same way Tesla deserves a premium valuation versus legacy players such as Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY).</p><p><blockquote>当我们从长远来看时，情况也是如此。蔚来 2025 年收入预期为 226 亿美元，比 2023 年预期再增长 80%，比分析师对 2021 年的预测增长 320%。与此同时，特斯拉预计 2025 年收入将达到 1225 亿美元，这是一个很大的数字，但比 2023 年增长相对较弱的 48%，比 2021 年总共增长 150%。因此，在 2021 年至 2025 年间，蔚来的收入将增长 4 倍，而特斯拉的收入将增长 2.5 倍——在其他条件相同的情况下，这是一个有意义的差异，应该可以让蔚来获得溢价估值，就像特斯拉值得拥有与大众汽车等传统参与者相比的溢价估值（OTCPK：VWAGY）。</blockquote></p><p> Looking at revenue estimates for 2025 relative to how the two companies are valued today, we see that NIO trades at 3.2x 2025 sales, while the 2025 sales multiple for Tesla is 5.2. For a long-term oriented investor, NIO thus seems like the better value today, thanks to the fact that it is trading at a significantly lower sales multiple when we take a look into the future. This does not necessarily mean that NIO is cheap, however, as even a 3.2x 2025 sales multiple is relatively high compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. NIO is looking less expensive than Tesla, however, even if its shares are not cheap on an absolute basis.</p><p><blockquote>将 2025 年的收入预测与两家公司目前的估值进行比较，我们发现蔚来的交易价格为 2025 年销售额的 3.2 倍，而特斯拉的 2025 年销售额倍数为 5.2。对于长期投资者来说，蔚来目前似乎更有价值，因为当我们展望未来时，它的销售倍数要低得多。然而，这并不一定意味着蔚来很便宜，因为与传统汽车公司的估值相比，即使是 2025 年 3.2 倍的销售倍数也相对较高。然而，蔚来看起来比特斯拉便宜，即使其股票绝对不便宜。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Can NIO Be Worth As Much As Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来能和特斯拉一样值钱吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that depends on what time frame you are looking at. Today, NIO is significantly smaller than Tesla and thus rightfully trades at a way smaller market cap. It should also be noted that there is no guarantee that Tesla's shares are a great example of how an EV company should be valued -- it is, at least, possible that its shares are significantly&nbsp;overpriced&nbsp;today, I personally believe that as well (Note that some will argue that shares are&nbsp;underpriced, which is also among the possibilities, although I do not hold that belief personally).</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案取决于你所关注的时间范围。如今，蔚来比特斯拉小得多，因此理所当然地以较小的市值进行交易。还应该指出的是，不能保证特斯拉的股票是电动汽车公司估值的一个很好的例子——至少，它的股票今天有可能被严重高估，我个人也相信这一点（请注意，有些人会认为股票价格被低估，这也是可能性之一，尽管我个人并不持有这种信念）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> When we do, for a moment, assume that Tesla is correctly valued today and that EV companies do deserve a market cap in the $600 billion range when they sell about 800,000 vehicles a year, then NIO could eventually hit that as well, although not in the near term. NIO will sell about 90,000 vehicles this year, and that amount should grow to about 400,000 in 2025. If NIO were to grow its sales by 15% a year beyond that point, it could sell around 800,000 cars in 2030, or 9 years from now. If one wants to assume faster growth, the 800,000 vehicles a year line could also be crossed before 2030, e.g. in 2028 or 2029. If we do go with 2030 for now, then NIO could, at a similar deliveries-to-market capitalization ratio to Tesla, be valued at $600+ billion in 2030. In other words, NIO could be worth as much as Tesla (today) in nine years, when we assume that current growth projections are realistic and that a Tesla-like valuation is appropriate. Those are two major ifs, of course, and especially the second point is far from certain, I believe. I personally would not be too surprised to see Tesla's valuation compress, and thus NIO could trade well below the $600 billion market cap level in 2030, even if it continues to grow meaningfully. It is also possible that NIO's growth disappoints and that current projections are too bullish, although I think that NIO is well-positioned for growth thanks to its unique BaaS model and its strong brand that is especially well-recognized in its home market.</p><p><blockquote>当我们暂时假设特斯拉今天的估值是正确的，并且电动汽车公司每年销售约 80 万辆汽车时，确实应该获得 6000 亿美元左右的市值，那么蔚来最终也可能达到这个目标，尽管不是在短期内。蔚来今年将销售约 9 万辆汽车，到 2025 年这一数字应该会增长到约 40 万辆。如果蔚来的销量在这一点后每年增长 15%，那么到 2030 年（即 9 年后），它可能会售出约 80 万辆汽车。如果想要假设更快的增长，每年 80 万辆汽车的大关也可能在 2030 年之前跨过，例如在 2028 年或 2029 年。如果我们现在真的选择 2030 年，那么按照与特斯拉类似的交付量与市值比率，蔚来到 2030 年的估值可能会超过 6000 亿美元。换句话说，如果我们假设当前的增长预测是现实的，并且类似特斯拉的估值是合适的，那么九年后蔚来的价值可能与特斯拉（今天）一样高。当然，这是两个主要的如果，尤其是第二点，我相信还远未确定。就我个人而言，看到特斯拉的估值压缩不会太惊讶，因此蔚来在 2030 年的市值可能远低于 6000 亿美元的水平，即使它继续大幅增长。蔚来汽车的增长也有可能令人失望，目前的预测过于乐观，尽管我认为蔚来凭借其独特的BaaS模式和在国内市场尤其知名的强大品牌，处于有利的增长位置。</blockquote></p><p> It should also be noted that Tesla's market cap in 2030 could be very different from $600 billion, thus even in case NIO hits that level, it is not at all guaranteed that the two companies will have a similar market cap. Tesla might be valued at a way higher valuation by then, e.g. if the ARK model is right (something I personally think is unlikely). To answer the above question, one could thus say that NIO might be worth hundreds of billions of dollars, like Tesla, in 8-10 years, but that is not at all guaranteed. And even if that were to happen, Tesla might be worth significantly more by then.</p><p><blockquote>还需要注意的是，特斯拉2030年的市值可能与6000亿美元有很大不同，因此即使蔚来达到这个水平，也根本不能保证两家公司的市值相似。到那时，特斯拉的估值可能会更高，例如，如果方舟模型是正确的（我个人认为不太可能）。为了回答上述问题，人们可以说，蔚来可能在8-10年内价值数千亿美元，就像特斯拉一样，但这根本不能保证。即使发生了这种情况，到那时特斯拉的价值可能会高得多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO A Good Stock To Buy Or Sell Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来现在是买入还是卖出的好股票？</b></blockquote></p><p> When considering NIO as an investment, it doesn't really matter all that much whether it will become as large or highly valued as Tesla eventually. Instead, investors should ask themselves what total returns they can expect over the next couple of years, and whether those expected returns are high enough relative to the risks in NIO's business model. Regarding those risks, one should mention the fact that the company isn't profitable yet, which means that NIO is dependent on cash on its balance sheet for growth investments. On top of that, competition in the EV space is growing, and market share battles could pressure margins in coming years, although NIO seems relatively well-positioned thanks to its battery-swapping, which is, I believe, a strong USP. Last but not least, the company's dependence on its home market China is a potential risk that should be kept in mind, although it should also be noted that, for now, it seems like the Chinese government is very accommodating to Chinese EV companies.</p><p><blockquote>当将蔚来视为一项投资时，它最终是否会变得像特斯拉一样大或高估值并不重要。相反，投资者应该问问自己，未来几年他们可以预期的总回报是多少，以及这些预期回报相对于蔚来商业模式的风险是否足够高。关于这些风险，值得一提的是，该公司尚未盈利，这意味着蔚来依赖其资产负债表上的现金进行增长投资。最重要的是，电动汽车领域的竞争正在加剧，市场份额之争可能会在未来几年给利润率带来压力，尽管蔚来似乎由于其电池更换而处于相对有利的地位，我相信这是一个强大的卖点。最后但并非最不重要的一点是，该公司对中国本土市场的依赖是一个应牢记的潜在风险，尽管还应该指出的是，目前中国政府似乎对中国电动汽车公司非常宽容。</blockquote></p><p> One could argue that valuations across the whole EV industry are too high, relative to how legacy auto companies are valued. Even those legacy players with attractive EV offerings such as Volkswagen or Ford trade at huge discounts compared to EV pureplays. But if one wants to invest in an EV pureplay, NIO doesn't seem like a bad choice. The company combines a strong brand, a unique BaaS offering, high growth rates, and shares trade at a discount compared to how the EV king Tesla is valued. At a little above 3x 2025 revenue, NIO does not seem overly expensive relative to other EV pureplays, although this still represents a premium versus legacy players, of course. If NIO manages to execute well and continues to roll out new models that are well-received by consumers, its shares could have significant upside potential in the long run. If EV stocks ever become an out-of-favor investment, NIO stock also could have considerable downside, however, this thus is not a low-risk pick. Depending on your risk tolerance, NIO could still be of value if you want a high-growth EV pureplay.</p><p><blockquote>有人可能会说，相对于传统汽车公司的估值，整个电动汽车行业的估值过高。与纯电动汽车相比，即使是大众或福特等拥有有吸引力的电动汽车产品的传统厂商也能享受巨大的折扣。但如果想投资电动汽车 pureplay，蔚来似乎并不是一个糟糕的选择。该公司结合了强大的品牌、独特的 BaaS 产品、高增长率以及与电动汽车之王特斯拉的估值相比折扣的股票交易。蔚来的收入略高于 2025 年的 3 倍，与其他电动汽车纯电动汽车相比似乎并不算太贵，尽管当然，这仍然代表着与传统厂商相比的溢价。如果蔚来能够很好地执行并继续推出深受消费者欢迎的新车型，从长远来看，其股价可能具有巨大的上涨潜力。如果电动汽车股票成为不受欢迎的投资，蔚来股票也可能有相当大的负面影响，然而，这并不是一个低风险的选择。根据您的风险承受能力，如果您想要高增长的电动汽车 pureplay，蔚来仍然很有价值。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks<blockquote>蔚来股票会追随特斯拉的脚步吗？这两只电动汽车股票之间需要考虑什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks<blockquote>蔚来股票会追随特斯拉的脚步吗？这两只电动汽车股票之间需要考虑什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-24 09:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Let's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.</li>  <li>NIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.</li>  <li>NIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f749c70c8a2af3e18d5f6cecc72bfbb\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"704\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>ipopba/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>让我们来看看蔚来与今天的特斯拉相比如何，蔚来独特的卖点，以及两家公司之间的相似之处。</li><li>蔚来是一个高增长的选择，相对于特斯拉的估值，它似乎并不算太贵。</li><li>然而，蔚来并不是一只低风险股票，它可能不是每个人的好选择。投资者还应该考虑蔚来汽车相对于传统汽车公司的估值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ipopba/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO, Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading EV players, and has, through an attractive brand and its unique BaaS offering, attracted a lot of interest from consumers and investors. Today, however, the company is still way smaller than Tesla (TSLA), which is currently leading the global EV market. NIO is focused on its home market right now, which was true when Tesla was a smaller company as well, but NIO will try to grab market share in overseas markets as well. Shares are pricing in a lot of growth already, but if NIO can replicate Tesla's success, that could be more than justified.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来（蔚来）是中国领先的电动汽车企业之一，通过有吸引力的品牌和独特的BaaS产品，吸引了消费者和投资者的极大兴趣。然而，如今该公司的规模仍然远小于目前引领全球电动汽车市场的特斯拉 (TSLA)。蔚来目前专注于国内市场，特斯拉还是一家小公司时也是如此，但蔚来也将努力在海外市场抢占市场份额。股价已经大幅上涨，但如果蔚来能够复制特斯拉的成功，这可能是完全合理的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO And TSLA Stock Prices</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来和特斯拉股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Both companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV pureplays rise rapidly. The combination of growing market share for EVs, accommodating policies such as subsidies for EV purchases, and massive monetary stimulus let shares of NIO and TSLA rise rapidly. NIO is up 245% over the last year, while TSLA is up 101% over the same time. Both companies are currently trading below their all-time highs, however, which were hit in early 2021 before market sentiment for EV pureplays cooled to some degree.</p><p><blockquote>2020 年，两家公司都受益于人们对电动汽车日益增长的兴趣，这一趋势导致大多数电动汽车纯玩家的股价迅速上涨。电动汽车市场份额不断增长、电动汽车购买补贴等宽松政策以及大规模货币刺激措施相结合，蔚来和特斯拉的股价迅速上涨。蔚来去年上涨了 245%，而特斯拉同期上涨了 101%。然而，这两家公司目前的股价均低于历史高点，该高点在 2021 年初触及，之后市场对电动汽车 pureplays 的情绪有所降温。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ff5ce865807df85283775d2293b41af\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Taking a quick look at analyst price targets, we see that Tesla is trading almost perfectly in line with the consensus, whereas NIO trades about 30% below the analyst target. If the analyst community is right, then NIO is a substantially better investment right here, as Tesla is not expected to see its shares rise meaningfully over the next year, whereas NIO has significant upside to the analyst price target.</p><p><blockquote>快速浏览一下分析师的目标价，我们发现特斯拉的交易价格几乎完全符合共识，而蔚来的交易价格比分析师目标价低约 30%。如果分析师界是正确的，那么蔚来在这里是一个更好的投资，因为预计特斯拉的股价明年不会大幅上涨，而蔚来的分析师目标价有很大的上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO Similar To Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来和特斯拉相似吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that question depends on what you focus on. There are similarities between the two companies, but there are also differences. One could thus say that, in some ways, the two are similar, but in others, they are not. Let's look at a couple of things:</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案取决于你关注的是什么。这两家公司有相似之处，但也有不同之处。因此，人们可以说，在某些方面，这两者是相似的，但在其他方面，它们不是。让我们看几件事：</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Both companies are focused on the EV space, although Tesla has, over the years, been building out a couple of other businesses as well, such as energy storage. Most of Tesla's revenues are generated through selling electric vehicles, which is also how NIO operates. Both companies are focused on the premium segment of EVs, selling higher-priced vehicles that compete with brands such as BMW, Mercedes, and Lexus. Both companies offer a small range of different vehicles, in Tesla's case those are the well-known S, X, 3, and Y, whereas NIO offers a sedan (ET7), and three SUVs (EC6, ES6, ES8). Despite the fact that NIO is a way smaller company today, the model lineups of the two companies do thus not differ too much.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都专注于电动汽车领域，尽管特斯拉多年来也一直在发展其他一些业务，例如储能。特斯拉的大部分收入是通过销售电动汽车产生的，这也是蔚来的运营方式。两家公司都专注于电动汽车的高端市场，销售与宝马、梅赛德斯和雷克萨斯等品牌竞争的高价汽车。两家公司都提供少量不同的车辆，特斯拉是众所周知的 S、X、3 和 Y，而蔚来则提供轿车 (ET7) 和三款 SUV (EC6、ES6、ES8)。尽管蔚来如今是一家规模较小的公司，但两家公司的车型阵容并没有太大区别。</blockquote></p><p> Both companies offer some type of charging infrastructure to their customers, in Tesla's case, that's the Supercharger network, where Tesla owners can charge their cars with up to 250kW, depending on what version of Supercharger is installed. NIO is following a different approach, offering a battery-as-a-service solution to its customers. NIO owners can get their battery switched out to a fully-charged battery at NIO's stations, a process that takes a couple of minutes and is thus significantly quicker compared to the regular EV charging offered by Tesla and other EV players. BaaS thus has advantages when it comes to the time it takes for a charge/swap, but it should be noted that Tesla's Superchargers are way more common around the world compared to NIO's battery-swapping stations. Rolling out that feature in additional markets will require large capital expenditures, but NIO's offering is a unique selling point compared to what all other EV players, including Tesla, are offering. It remains to be seen whether that will ultimately pay off, but this could become a major advantage for NIO as competition in the EV space is heating up.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都为客户提供某种类型的充电基础设施，就特斯拉而言，这就是增压器网络，特斯拉车主可以在其中为汽车充电，功率高达 250kW，具体取决于安装的增压器版本。蔚来正在采取不同的方法，为客户提供电池即服务解决方案。蔚来车主可以在蔚来充电站将电池更换为充满电的电池，这一过程只需几分钟，因此与特斯拉和其他电动汽车制造商提供的常规电动汽车充电相比要快得多。因此，BaaS在充电/更换时间方面具有优势，但应该注意的是，与蔚来的换电站相比，特斯拉的超级充电站在世界各地更为常见。在其他市场推出该功能将需要大量资本支出，但与包括特斯拉在内的所有其他电动汽车厂商所提供的产品相比，蔚来汽车的产品是一个独特的卖点。这是否最终会带来回报还有待观察，但随着电动汽车领域的竞争日益激烈，这可能成为蔚来的一大优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Size, growth, and valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>规模、增长和估值</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The two companies differ significantly in size, both when it comes to revenues and vehicle sales, as well as when it comes to the market value of the two companies. NIO has delivered22,000 vehicles in Q2, up 112% year over year, for an annual pace of around 90,000 vehicles. Tesla, meanwhile, has delivered 201,000 vehicles during Q2, up from 103,000 vehicles delivered during Q2 2020. This is strong growth on a year-over-year basis, although slightly below 100%, and thus below the growth rate that NIO is generating for now.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司的规模差异很大，无论是在收入和汽车销量方面，还是在两家公司的市值方面。蔚来第二季度交付了22,000辆汽车，同比增长112%，年增长率约为90,000辆。与此同时，特斯拉在第二季度交付了 201,000 辆汽车，高于 2020 年第二季度的 103,000 辆汽车。这是同比的强劲增长，尽管略低于 100%，因此低于蔚来目前的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla delivers around 9x as many vehicles compared to NIO per quarter, when we look at the market capitalizations of the two companies, we see that the ratio is almost exactly the same, as Tesla's market cap of $640 billion is ~9x as high as that of NIO, at $72 billion. At similar growth rates, that would make perfect sense, but it looks like NIO might be the better deal for now, as it trades at a comparable valuation while generating better growth. This will be especially true in the coming quarters, where Tesla's growth is expected to slow down:</p><p><blockquote>与蔚来相比，特斯拉每季度交付的汽车数量约为 9 倍，当我们查看两家公司的市值时，我们会发现这一比例几乎完全相同，因为特斯拉 6400 亿美元的市值约为 9 倍蔚来的 720 亿美元。在类似的增长率下，这将是完全有意义的，但看起来蔚来目前可能是更好的交易，因为它的估值相当，同时产生了更好的增长。未来几个季度尤其如此，特斯拉的增长预计将放缓：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a986ea65130206f99961a46ce6cfed55\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Tesla is forecasted to grow its revenue from $49 billion in 2021 to $83 billion in 2023, for an annual growth rate of 30%. NIO, meanwhile, is expected to see its revenue explode upwards from $5.4 billion to $12.8 billion between 2021 and 2023, for an annual growth rate of 54%. NIO is thus expected to grow way faster than Tesla over the next two years, on a relative basis. This shouldn't be a surprise, to be honest, as the law of large numbers dictates that maintaining massive growth rates becomes increasingly hard for a company the bigger it gets, and Tesla seems to have hit that point by now -- adding 50%+ a year to its top line will not be possible forever. This isn't even necessarily Tesla's fault, in fact, many high-quality growth companies have experienced the same. But investors should still consider this important fact -- Tesla's growth in coming years will be less exciting compared to what we have seen in the past, and peers, such as NIO, are growing faster.</p><p><blockquote>预计特斯拉的收入将从2021年的490亿美元增长到2023年的830亿美元，年增长率为30%。与此同时，蔚来预计其收入将在 2021 年至 2023 年间从 54 亿美元激增至 128 亿美元，年增长率为 54%。因此，相对而言，预计未来两年蔚来的增长速度将远远超过特斯拉。老实说，这并不奇怪，因为大数定律表明，对于一家公司来说，保持巨大的增长率变得越来越困难，而特斯拉现在似乎已经达到了这一点——每年增加 50% 以上的收入是不可能永远的。这甚至不一定是特斯拉的错，事实上，许多优质成长型公司都经历过同样的事情。但投资者仍然应该考虑这个重要事实——与我们过去看到的相比，特斯拉未来几年的增长将不那么令人兴奋，而蔚来等同行的增长速度更快。</blockquote></p><p> The same holds true when we take a longer-term view. Revenue estimates for 2025 rest at$22.6 billionfor NIO, up another 80% from the 2023 estimate, and up 320% from what analysts are forecasting for 2021. Tesla, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate revenues of $122.5 billion in 2025 -- a large number, but up by a comparatively weak 48% from 2023, and up by a total of 150% versus 2021. Between 2021 and 2025, NIO will thus 4x its revenue, while Tesla will 2.5x its revenue in the same time span -- a meaningful difference that should, all else equal, allow for a premium valuation for NIO, in the same way Tesla deserves a premium valuation versus legacy players such as Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY).</p><p><blockquote>当我们从长远来看时，情况也是如此。蔚来 2025 年收入预期为 226 亿美元，比 2023 年预期再增长 80%，比分析师对 2021 年的预测增长 320%。与此同时，特斯拉预计 2025 年收入将达到 1225 亿美元，这是一个很大的数字，但比 2023 年增长相对较弱的 48%，比 2021 年总共增长 150%。因此，在 2021 年至 2025 年间，蔚来的收入将增长 4 倍，而特斯拉的收入将增长 2.5 倍——在其他条件相同的情况下，这是一个有意义的差异，应该可以让蔚来获得溢价估值，就像特斯拉值得拥有与大众汽车等传统参与者相比的溢价估值（OTCPK：VWAGY）。</blockquote></p><p> Looking at revenue estimates for 2025 relative to how the two companies are valued today, we see that NIO trades at 3.2x 2025 sales, while the 2025 sales multiple for Tesla is 5.2. For a long-term oriented investor, NIO thus seems like the better value today, thanks to the fact that it is trading at a significantly lower sales multiple when we take a look into the future. This does not necessarily mean that NIO is cheap, however, as even a 3.2x 2025 sales multiple is relatively high compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. NIO is looking less expensive than Tesla, however, even if its shares are not cheap on an absolute basis.</p><p><blockquote>将 2025 年的收入预测与两家公司目前的估值进行比较，我们发现蔚来的交易价格为 2025 年销售额的 3.2 倍，而特斯拉的 2025 年销售额倍数为 5.2。对于长期投资者来说，蔚来目前似乎更有价值，因为当我们展望未来时，它的销售倍数要低得多。然而，这并不一定意味着蔚来很便宜，因为与传统汽车公司的估值相比，即使是 2025 年 3.2 倍的销售倍数也相对较高。然而，蔚来看起来比特斯拉便宜，即使其股票绝对不便宜。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Can NIO Be Worth As Much As Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来能和特斯拉一样值钱吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that depends on what time frame you are looking at. Today, NIO is significantly smaller than Tesla and thus rightfully trades at a way smaller market cap. It should also be noted that there is no guarantee that Tesla's shares are a great example of how an EV company should be valued -- it is, at least, possible that its shares are significantly&nbsp;overpriced&nbsp;today, I personally believe that as well (Note that some will argue that shares are&nbsp;underpriced, which is also among the possibilities, although I do not hold that belief personally).</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案取决于你所关注的时间范围。如今，蔚来比特斯拉小得多，因此理所当然地以较小的市值进行交易。还应该指出的是，不能保证特斯拉的股票是电动汽车公司估值的一个很好的例子——至少，它的股票今天有可能被严重高估，我个人也相信这一点（请注意，有些人会认为股票价格被低估，这也是可能性之一，尽管我个人并不持有这种信念）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> When we do, for a moment, assume that Tesla is correctly valued today and that EV companies do deserve a market cap in the $600 billion range when they sell about 800,000 vehicles a year, then NIO could eventually hit that as well, although not in the near term. NIO will sell about 90,000 vehicles this year, and that amount should grow to about 400,000 in 2025. If NIO were to grow its sales by 15% a year beyond that point, it could sell around 800,000 cars in 2030, or 9 years from now. If one wants to assume faster growth, the 800,000 vehicles a year line could also be crossed before 2030, e.g. in 2028 or 2029. If we do go with 2030 for now, then NIO could, at a similar deliveries-to-market capitalization ratio to Tesla, be valued at $600+ billion in 2030. In other words, NIO could be worth as much as Tesla (today) in nine years, when we assume that current growth projections are realistic and that a Tesla-like valuation is appropriate. Those are two major ifs, of course, and especially the second point is far from certain, I believe. I personally would not be too surprised to see Tesla's valuation compress, and thus NIO could trade well below the $600 billion market cap level in 2030, even if it continues to grow meaningfully. It is also possible that NIO's growth disappoints and that current projections are too bullish, although I think that NIO is well-positioned for growth thanks to its unique BaaS model and its strong brand that is especially well-recognized in its home market.</p><p><blockquote>当我们暂时假设特斯拉今天的估值是正确的，并且电动汽车公司每年销售约 80 万辆汽车时，确实应该获得 6000 亿美元左右的市值，那么蔚来最终也可能达到这个目标，尽管不是在短期内。蔚来今年将销售约 9 万辆汽车，到 2025 年这一数字应该会增长到约 40 万辆。如果蔚来的销量在这一点后每年增长 15%，那么到 2030 年（即 9 年后），它可能会售出约 80 万辆汽车。如果想要假设更快的增长，每年 80 万辆汽车的大关也可能在 2030 年之前跨过，例如在 2028 年或 2029 年。如果我们现在真的选择 2030 年，那么按照与特斯拉类似的交付量与市值比率，蔚来到 2030 年的估值可能会超过 6000 亿美元。换句话说，如果我们假设当前的增长预测是现实的，并且类似特斯拉的估值是合适的，那么九年后蔚来的价值可能与特斯拉（今天）一样高。当然，这是两个主要的如果，尤其是第二点，我相信还远未确定。就我个人而言，看到特斯拉的估值压缩不会太惊讶，因此蔚来在 2030 年的市值可能远低于 6000 亿美元的水平，即使它继续大幅增长。蔚来汽车的增长也有可能令人失望，目前的预测过于乐观，尽管我认为蔚来凭借其独特的BaaS模式和在国内市场尤其知名的强大品牌，处于有利的增长位置。</blockquote></p><p> It should also be noted that Tesla's market cap in 2030 could be very different from $600 billion, thus even in case NIO hits that level, it is not at all guaranteed that the two companies will have a similar market cap. Tesla might be valued at a way higher valuation by then, e.g. if the ARK model is right (something I personally think is unlikely). To answer the above question, one could thus say that NIO might be worth hundreds of billions of dollars, like Tesla, in 8-10 years, but that is not at all guaranteed. And even if that were to happen, Tesla might be worth significantly more by then.</p><p><blockquote>还需要注意的是，特斯拉2030年的市值可能与6000亿美元有很大不同，因此即使蔚来达到这个水平，也根本不能保证两家公司的市值相似。到那时，特斯拉的估值可能会更高，例如，如果方舟模型是正确的（我个人认为不太可能）。为了回答上述问题，人们可以说，蔚来可能在8-10年内价值数千亿美元，就像特斯拉一样，但这根本不能保证。即使发生了这种情况，到那时特斯拉的价值可能会高得多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO A Good Stock To Buy Or Sell Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来现在是买入还是卖出的好股票？</b></blockquote></p><p> When considering NIO as an investment, it doesn't really matter all that much whether it will become as large or highly valued as Tesla eventually. Instead, investors should ask themselves what total returns they can expect over the next couple of years, and whether those expected returns are high enough relative to the risks in NIO's business model. Regarding those risks, one should mention the fact that the company isn't profitable yet, which means that NIO is dependent on cash on its balance sheet for growth investments. On top of that, competition in the EV space is growing, and market share battles could pressure margins in coming years, although NIO seems relatively well-positioned thanks to its battery-swapping, which is, I believe, a strong USP. Last but not least, the company's dependence on its home market China is a potential risk that should be kept in mind, although it should also be noted that, for now, it seems like the Chinese government is very accommodating to Chinese EV companies.</p><p><blockquote>当将蔚来视为一项投资时，它最终是否会变得像特斯拉一样大或高估值并不重要。相反，投资者应该问问自己，未来几年他们可以预期的总回报是多少，以及这些预期回报相对于蔚来商业模式的风险是否足够高。关于这些风险，值得一提的是，该公司尚未盈利，这意味着蔚来依赖其资产负债表上的现金进行增长投资。最重要的是，电动汽车领域的竞争正在加剧，市场份额之争可能会在未来几年给利润率带来压力，尽管蔚来似乎由于其电池更换而处于相对有利的地位，我相信这是一个强大的卖点。最后但并非最不重要的一点是，该公司对中国本土市场的依赖是一个应牢记的潜在风险，尽管还应该指出的是，目前中国政府似乎对中国电动汽车公司非常宽容。</blockquote></p><p> One could argue that valuations across the whole EV industry are too high, relative to how legacy auto companies are valued. Even those legacy players with attractive EV offerings such as Volkswagen or Ford trade at huge discounts compared to EV pureplays. But if one wants to invest in an EV pureplay, NIO doesn't seem like a bad choice. The company combines a strong brand, a unique BaaS offering, high growth rates, and shares trade at a discount compared to how the EV king Tesla is valued. At a little above 3x 2025 revenue, NIO does not seem overly expensive relative to other EV pureplays, although this still represents a premium versus legacy players, of course. If NIO manages to execute well and continues to roll out new models that are well-received by consumers, its shares could have significant upside potential in the long run. If EV stocks ever become an out-of-favor investment, NIO stock also could have considerable downside, however, this thus is not a low-risk pick. Depending on your risk tolerance, NIO could still be of value if you want a high-growth EV pureplay.</p><p><blockquote>有人可能会说，相对于传统汽车公司的估值，整个电动汽车行业的估值过高。与纯电动汽车相比，即使是大众或福特等拥有有吸引力的电动汽车产品的传统厂商也能享受巨大的折扣。但如果想投资电动汽车 pureplay，蔚来似乎并不是一个糟糕的选择。该公司结合了强大的品牌、独特的 BaaS 产品、高增长率以及与电动汽车之王特斯拉的估值相比折扣的股票交易。蔚来的收入略高于 2025 年的 3 倍，与其他电动汽车纯电动汽车相比似乎并不算太贵，尽管当然，这仍然代表着与传统厂商相比的溢价。如果蔚来能够很好地执行并继续推出深受消费者欢迎的新车型，从长远来看，其股价可能具有巨大的上涨潜力。如果电动汽车股票成为不受欢迎的投资，蔚来股票也可能有相当大的负面影响，然而，这并不是一个低风险的选择。根据您的风险承受能力，如果您想要高增长的电动汽车 pureplay，蔚来仍然很有价值。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440950-will-nio-stock-follow-tesla-what-to-consider-ev-stocks\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440950-will-nio-stock-follow-tesla-what-to-consider-ev-stocks","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112927800","content_text":"Summary\n\nLet's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.\nNIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.\nNIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.\n\nipopba/iStock via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nNIO, Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading EV players, and has, through an attractive brand and its unique BaaS offering, attracted a lot of interest from consumers and investors. Today, however, the company is still way smaller than Tesla (TSLA), which is currently leading the global EV market. NIO is focused on its home market right now, which was true when Tesla was a smaller company as well, but NIO will try to grab market share in overseas markets as well. Shares are pricing in a lot of growth already, but if NIO can replicate Tesla's success, that could be more than justified.\nNIO And TSLA Stock Prices\nBoth companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV pureplays rise rapidly. The combination of growing market share for EVs, accommodating policies such as subsidies for EV purchases, and massive monetary stimulus let shares of NIO and TSLA rise rapidly. NIO is up 245% over the last year, while TSLA is up 101% over the same time. Both companies are currently trading below their all-time highs, however, which were hit in early 2021 before market sentiment for EV pureplays cooled to some degree.\nData by YCharts\nTaking a quick look at analyst price targets, we see that Tesla is trading almost perfectly in line with the consensus, whereas NIO trades about 30% below the analyst target. If the analyst community is right, then NIO is a substantially better investment right here, as Tesla is not expected to see its shares rise meaningfully over the next year, whereas NIO has significant upside to the analyst price target.\nIs NIO Similar To Tesla?\nThe answer to that question depends on what you focus on. There are similarities between the two companies, but there are also differences. One could thus say that, in some ways, the two are similar, but in others, they are not. Let's look at a couple of things:\nBusiness Model\nBoth companies are focused on the EV space, although Tesla has, over the years, been building out a couple of other businesses as well, such as energy storage. Most of Tesla's revenues are generated through selling electric vehicles, which is also how NIO operates. Both companies are focused on the premium segment of EVs, selling higher-priced vehicles that compete with brands such as BMW, Mercedes, and Lexus. Both companies offer a small range of different vehicles, in Tesla's case those are the well-known S, X, 3, and Y, whereas NIO offers a sedan (ET7), and three SUVs (EC6, ES6, ES8). Despite the fact that NIO is a way smaller company today, the model lineups of the two companies do thus not differ too much.\nBoth companies offer some type of charging infrastructure to their customers, in Tesla's case, that's the Supercharger network, where Tesla owners can charge their cars with up to 250kW, depending on what version of Supercharger is installed. NIO is following a different approach, offering a battery-as-a-service solution to its customers. NIO owners can get their battery switched out to a fully-charged battery at NIO's stations, a process that takes a couple of minutes and is thus significantly quicker compared to the regular EV charging offered by Tesla and other EV players. BaaS thus has advantages when it comes to the time it takes for a charge/swap, but it should be noted that Tesla's Superchargers are way more common around the world compared to NIO's battery-swapping stations. Rolling out that feature in additional markets will require large capital expenditures, but NIO's offering is a unique selling point compared to what all other EV players, including Tesla, are offering. It remains to be seen whether that will ultimately pay off, but this could become a major advantage for NIO as competition in the EV space is heating up.\nSize, growth, and valuation\nThe two companies differ significantly in size, both when it comes to revenues and vehicle sales, as well as when it comes to the market value of the two companies. NIO has delivered22,000 vehicles in Q2, up 112% year over year, for an annual pace of around 90,000 vehicles. Tesla, meanwhile, has delivered 201,000 vehicles during Q2, up from 103,000 vehicles delivered during Q2 2020. This is strong growth on a year-over-year basis, although slightly below 100%, and thus below the growth rate that NIO is generating for now.\nTesla delivers around 9x as many vehicles compared to NIO per quarter, when we look at the market capitalizations of the two companies, we see that the ratio is almost exactly the same, as Tesla's market cap of $640 billion is ~9x as high as that of NIO, at $72 billion. At similar growth rates, that would make perfect sense, but it looks like NIO might be the better deal for now, as it trades at a comparable valuation while generating better growth. This will be especially true in the coming quarters, where Tesla's growth is expected to slow down:\nData by YCharts\nTesla is forecasted to grow its revenue from $49 billion in 2021 to $83 billion in 2023, for an annual growth rate of 30%. NIO, meanwhile, is expected to see its revenue explode upwards from $5.4 billion to $12.8 billion between 2021 and 2023, for an annual growth rate of 54%. NIO is thus expected to grow way faster than Tesla over the next two years, on a relative basis. This shouldn't be a surprise, to be honest, as the law of large numbers dictates that maintaining massive growth rates becomes increasingly hard for a company the bigger it gets, and Tesla seems to have hit that point by now -- adding 50%+ a year to its top line will not be possible forever. This isn't even necessarily Tesla's fault, in fact, many high-quality growth companies have experienced the same. But investors should still consider this important fact -- Tesla's growth in coming years will be less exciting compared to what we have seen in the past, and peers, such as NIO, are growing faster.\nThe same holds true when we take a longer-term view. Revenue estimates for 2025 rest at$22.6 billionfor NIO, up another 80% from the 2023 estimate, and up 320% from what analysts are forecasting for 2021. Tesla, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate revenues of $122.5 billion in 2025 -- a large number, but up by a comparatively weak 48% from 2023, and up by a total of 150% versus 2021. Between 2021 and 2025, NIO will thus 4x its revenue, while Tesla will 2.5x its revenue in the same time span -- a meaningful difference that should, all else equal, allow for a premium valuation for NIO, in the same way Tesla deserves a premium valuation versus legacy players such as Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY).\nLooking at revenue estimates for 2025 relative to how the two companies are valued today, we see that NIO trades at 3.2x 2025 sales, while the 2025 sales multiple for Tesla is 5.2. For a long-term oriented investor, NIO thus seems like the better value today, thanks to the fact that it is trading at a significantly lower sales multiple when we take a look into the future. This does not necessarily mean that NIO is cheap, however, as even a 3.2x 2025 sales multiple is relatively high compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. NIO is looking less expensive than Tesla, however, even if its shares are not cheap on an absolute basis.\nCan NIO Be Worth As Much As Tesla?\nThe answer to that depends on what time frame you are looking at. Today, NIO is significantly smaller than Tesla and thus rightfully trades at a way smaller market cap. It should also be noted that there is no guarantee that Tesla's shares are a great example of how an EV company should be valued -- it is, at least, possible that its shares are significantly overpriced today, I personally believe that as well (Note that some will argue that shares are underpriced, which is also among the possibilities, although I do not hold that belief personally).\nWhen we do, for a moment, assume that Tesla is correctly valued today and that EV companies do deserve a market cap in the $600 billion range when they sell about 800,000 vehicles a year, then NIO could eventually hit that as well, although not in the near term. NIO will sell about 90,000 vehicles this year, and that amount should grow to about 400,000 in 2025. If NIO were to grow its sales by 15% a year beyond that point, it could sell around 800,000 cars in 2030, or 9 years from now. If one wants to assume faster growth, the 800,000 vehicles a year line could also be crossed before 2030, e.g. in 2028 or 2029. If we do go with 2030 for now, then NIO could, at a similar deliveries-to-market capitalization ratio to Tesla, be valued at $600+ billion in 2030. In other words, NIO could be worth as much as Tesla (today) in nine years, when we assume that current growth projections are realistic and that a Tesla-like valuation is appropriate. Those are two major ifs, of course, and especially the second point is far from certain, I believe. I personally would not be too surprised to see Tesla's valuation compress, and thus NIO could trade well below the $600 billion market cap level in 2030, even if it continues to grow meaningfully. It is also possible that NIO's growth disappoints and that current projections are too bullish, although I think that NIO is well-positioned for growth thanks to its unique BaaS model and its strong brand that is especially well-recognized in its home market.\nIt should also be noted that Tesla's market cap in 2030 could be very different from $600 billion, thus even in case NIO hits that level, it is not at all guaranteed that the two companies will have a similar market cap. Tesla might be valued at a way higher valuation by then, e.g. if the ARK model is right (something I personally think is unlikely). To answer the above question, one could thus say that NIO might be worth hundreds of billions of dollars, like Tesla, in 8-10 years, but that is not at all guaranteed. And even if that were to happen, Tesla might be worth significantly more by then.\nIs NIO A Good Stock To Buy Or Sell Now?\nWhen considering NIO as an investment, it doesn't really matter all that much whether it will become as large or highly valued as Tesla eventually. Instead, investors should ask themselves what total returns they can expect over the next couple of years, and whether those expected returns are high enough relative to the risks in NIO's business model. Regarding those risks, one should mention the fact that the company isn't profitable yet, which means that NIO is dependent on cash on its balance sheet for growth investments. On top of that, competition in the EV space is growing, and market share battles could pressure margins in coming years, although NIO seems relatively well-positioned thanks to its battery-swapping, which is, I believe, a strong USP. Last but not least, the company's dependence on its home market China is a potential risk that should be kept in mind, although it should also be noted that, for now, it seems like the Chinese government is very accommodating to Chinese EV companies.\nOne could argue that valuations across the whole EV industry are too high, relative to how legacy auto companies are valued. Even those legacy players with attractive EV offerings such as Volkswagen or Ford trade at huge discounts compared to EV pureplays. But if one wants to invest in an EV pureplay, NIO doesn't seem like a bad choice. The company combines a strong brand, a unique BaaS offering, high growth rates, and shares trade at a discount compared to how the EV king Tesla is valued. At a little above 3x 2025 revenue, NIO does not seem overly expensive relative to other EV pureplays, although this still represents a premium versus legacy players, of course. If NIO manages to execute well and continues to roll out new models that are well-received by consumers, its shares could have significant upside potential in the long run. If EV stocks ever become an out-of-favor investment, NIO stock also could have considerable downside, however, this thus is not a low-risk pick. Depending on your risk tolerance, NIO could still be of value if you want a high-growth EV pureplay.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9,"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2294,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":122116775,"gmtCreate":1624603527297,"gmtModify":1633950633737,"author":{"id":"3583447705533959","authorId":"3583447705533959","name":"Kmj121","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c59f0eacf93cd197ec1e2105b1796413","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583447705533959","idStr":"3583447705533959"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"up","listText":"up","text":"up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/122116775","repostId":"2146274410","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2174,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":174659928,"gmtCreate":1627096614864,"gmtModify":1633767996769,"author":{"id":"3583447705533959","authorId":"3583447705533959","name":"Kmj121","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c59f0eacf93cd197ec1e2105b1796413","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583447705533959","idStr":"3583447705533959"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"leek","listText":"leek","text":"leek","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/174659928","repostId":"1151500518","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1151500518","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1627092269,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1151500518?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-24 10:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tencent was ordered to remove the exclusive copyright of online music<blockquote>腾讯控股被勒令删除在线音乐的独家版权</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151500518","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"The China market supervision administration made an administrative punishment decision according to ","content":"<p>The China market supervision administration made an administrative punishment decision according to law, ordering Tencent and its affiliated companies to take measures to restore the state of market competition, such as canceling the exclusive music copyright within 30 days, stopping the payment of copyright fees such as high prepayment, and not requiring the upstream copyright party to give conditions superior to its competitors without justified reasons. Tencent will report the performance of its obligations to the State Administration of market supervision every year within three years, and the State Administration of market supervision will strictly supervise its implementation according to law.</p><p><blockquote>国家市场监督管理总局依法作出行政处罚决定，责令腾讯控股及其关联公司采取30日内取消独家音乐版权、停止支付高额预付款等版权费用、无正当理由不得要求上游版权方给予优于其竞争对手的条件等恢复市场竞争状态的措施。腾讯控股将在3年内每年向国家市场监督管理总局报告履行义务情况，国家市场监督管理总局将依法严格监督其执行情况。</blockquote></p><p> This case is the first case in which necessary measures have been taken to restore the state of market competition for the illegal implementation of business concentration since the implementation of China's anti-monopoly law.</p><p><blockquote>本案是我国《反垄断法》实施以来，对违法实施经营者集中行为采取必要措施恢复市场竞争状态的第一起案件。</blockquote></p><p> Tencent responded that the company will seriously abide by the decision, strictly implement the regulatory requirements, operate in accordance with the law, earnestly fulfill its social responsibility and maintain benign competition in the market. Tencent will take full responsibility, formulate rectification measures and plans with Tencent music and other affiliated companies within the specified time limit, and complete them completely in accordance with the requirements of the punishment decision to ensure that the rectification is in place.</p><p><blockquote>腾讯控股回应称，公司将认真遵守决定，严格执行监管要求，依法经营，切实履行社会责任，维护市场良性竞争。腾讯控股将全面负起责任，在规定期限内会同腾讯控股音乐等关联公司制定整改措施和方案，并按照处罚决定书要求全面完成，确保整改到位。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tencent was ordered to remove the exclusive copyright of online music<blockquote>腾讯控股被勒令删除在线音乐的独家版权</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTencent was ordered to remove the exclusive copyright of online music<blockquote>腾讯控股被勒令删除在线音乐的独家版权</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-24 10:04</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The China market supervision administration made an administrative punishment decision according to law, ordering Tencent and its affiliated companies to take measures to restore the state of market competition, such as canceling the exclusive music copyright within 30 days, stopping the payment of copyright fees such as high prepayment, and not requiring the upstream copyright party to give conditions superior to its competitors without justified reasons. Tencent will report the performance of its obligations to the State Administration of market supervision every year within three years, and the State Administration of market supervision will strictly supervise its implementation according to law.</p><p><blockquote>国家市场监督管理总局依法作出行政处罚决定，责令腾讯控股及其关联公司采取30日内取消独家音乐版权、停止支付高额预付款等版权费用、无正当理由不得要求上游版权方给予优于其竞争对手的条件等恢复市场竞争状态的措施。腾讯控股将在3年内每年向国家市场监督管理总局报告履行义务情况，国家市场监督管理总局将依法严格监督其执行情况。</blockquote></p><p> This case is the first case in which necessary measures have been taken to restore the state of market competition for the illegal implementation of business concentration since the implementation of China's anti-monopoly law.</p><p><blockquote>本案是我国《反垄断法》实施以来，对违法实施经营者集中行为采取必要措施恢复市场竞争状态的第一起案件。</blockquote></p><p> Tencent responded that the company will seriously abide by the decision, strictly implement the regulatory requirements, operate in accordance with the law, earnestly fulfill its social responsibility and maintain benign competition in the market. Tencent will take full responsibility, formulate rectification measures and plans with Tencent music and other affiliated companies within the specified time limit, and complete them completely in accordance with the requirements of the punishment decision to ensure that the rectification is in place.</p><p><blockquote>腾讯控股回应称，公司将认真遵守决定，严格执行监管要求，依法经营，切实履行社会责任，维护市场良性竞争。腾讯控股将全面负起责任，在规定期限内会同腾讯控股音乐等关联公司制定整改措施和方案，并按照处罚决定书要求全面完成，确保整改到位。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TME":"腾讯音乐","00700":"腾讯控股"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151500518","content_text":"The China market supervision administration made an administrative punishment decision according to law, ordering Tencent and its affiliated companies to take measures to restore the state of market competition, such as canceling the exclusive music copyright within 30 days, stopping the payment of copyright fees such as high prepayment, and not requiring the upstream copyright party to give conditions superior to its competitors without justified reasons. Tencent will report the performance of its obligations to the State Administration of market supervision every year within three years, and the State Administration of market supervision will strictly supervise its implementation according to law.\nThis case is the first case in which necessary measures have been taken to restore the state of market competition for the illegal implementation of business concentration since the implementation of China's anti-monopoly law.\nTencent responded that the company will seriously abide by the decision, strictly implement the regulatory requirements, operate in accordance with the law, earnestly fulfill its social responsibility and maintain benign competition in the market. Tencent will take full responsibility, formulate rectification measures and plans with Tencent music and other affiliated companies within the specified time limit, and complete them completely in accordance with the requirements of the punishment decision to ensure that the rectification is in place.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TME":0.9,"00700":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2265,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":128283783,"gmtCreate":1624518524842,"gmtModify":1634004946847,"author":{"id":"3583447705533959","authorId":"3583447705533959","name":"Kmj121","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c59f0eacf93cd197ec1e2105b1796413","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583447705533959","idStr":"3583447705533959"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"I up","listText":"I up","text":"I up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/128283783","repostId":"1170018171","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1170018171","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624518095,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1170018171?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-24 15:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What the Growing Ascendance of Electric Vehicles Means for Oil and Gas Stocks<blockquote>电动汽车日益增长的优势对石油和天然气股票意味着什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170018171","media":"The Street","summary":"As Tesla and other carmakers ramp up the number of EVs on the road, oil and gas companies are trying","content":"<p>  <b>As Tesla and other carmakers ramp up the number of EVs on the road, oil and gas companies are trying out a host of strategies to compensate.</b>  Electric vehicles (EVs) are poised to run over the oil and gas industry -- at least that’s what it seems like at first glance.</p><p><blockquote><b>随着特斯拉和其他汽车制造商增加上路电动汽车的数量，石油和天然气公司正在尝试一系列策略来弥补。</b>电动汽车（EV）即将席卷石油和天然气行业--至少乍一看是这样。</blockquote></p><p> By 2050, the vast majority of transport vehicles on the road across the globe are expected to be electric, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). And the transportation industry contributes roughly half of all the business for integrated oil and gas companies, which handle all three aspects of the process from exploration to production to refining, according to Giacomo Romeo, integrated oil and gas analyst with Jefferies Group.</p><p><blockquote>据国际能源署（IEA）称，到2050年，全球道路上的绝大多数运输车辆预计将是电动的。杰富瑞集团 (Jefferies Group) 综合石油和天然气分析师贾科莫·罗密欧 (Giacomo Romeo) 表示，运输行业约占综合石油和天然气公司所有业务的一半，这些公司处理从勘探到生产再到炼油的所有三个方面。</blockquote></p><p> Electric passenger vehicles such as the Tesla&nbsp;(<b>TSLA</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;Model 3, Nissan’s&nbsp;(<b>NSANY</b>)&nbsp;Leaf, Hyundai’s&nbsp;(<b>HYMTF</b>)&nbsp;Kona Electric and others are expected to account for 86% of all passenger vehicles on the road by 2050,up dramaticallyfrom just 1% last year. Meanwhile, electric vans are expected to soar to 84% of all vans from 0% last year, while 79% of buses and 59% of heavy trucks will be electric, up from 2% and 0%, respectively, according to IEA’s report “Net Zero by 2050: A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector.”</p><p><blockquote>电动乘用车，如特斯拉（<b>特斯拉</b>) -获取报告 Model 3，日产 (<b>恩萨尼</b>) 聆风，现代的 (<b>HYMTF</b>) 预计到 2050 年，Kona Electric 和其他公司将占道路上所有乘用车的 86%，比去年的 1% 大幅上升。与此同时，根据国际能源署的报告《到2050年实现净零：全球能源行业路线图》，电动货车预计将从去年的0%飙升至84%，而79%的公共汽车和59%的重型卡车将是电动的，分别从2%和0%有所上升。</blockquote></p><p> Catalysts driving this growth in the U.S. are expected to come from car manufacturers increasing both the total number of electric vehicles and the number of models they offer, government agencies offering incentives to consumers to purchase electric vehicles and support from President Biden to increase the use of electric vehicles, according to Edmunds. The automotive research firm released a report this year that found the U.S. electric vehicle market is on track to post record sales this year, with EVs expected to represent 2.5% of U.S. vehicle sales this year, up from 1.9% in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>推动美国这一增长的催化剂预计将来自汽车制造商增加电动汽车的总数和提供的车型数量、政府机构为消费者购买电动汽车提供激励措施以及拜登总统支持增加电动汽车的使用埃德蒙兹表示。这家汽车研究公司今年发布的一份报告发现，美国电动汽车市场今年的销量有望创下历史新高，电动汽车预计将占今年美国汽车销量的2.5%，高于2020年的1.9%。</blockquote></p><p> “Price and choice of models are the biggest barriers to buying EVs for consumers,” said Jessica Caldwell, executive director of insights for Edmunds. “You always pay more for EVs and once people start shopping for a car, they start with the intent of buying an EV, but when they begin to compare they see they can get a bigger one with more features than an EV. People equate bigger with better and think it’s a nicer car and more worthy.\"</p><p><blockquote>“Edmunds insights 执行董事杰西卡-考德威尔（Jessica Caldwell）说：”价格和车型选择是消费者购买电动汽车的最大障碍。“你总是要花更多的钱买电动汽车，一旦人们开始购买汽车，他们一开始就打算买电动汽车，但当他们开始比较时，他们发现他们可以买到比电动汽车功能更多的更大的电动汽车。人们把更大等同于更好，认为这是一辆更好、更有价值的车”。</blockquote></p><p> Recently, consumers’ preference hasswung to larger vehiclesand those tend to be gas-powered. But this year, for the first time, consumers will have the option of purchasing electric trucks, which expands the consumer EV categories beyond just passenger cars and SUVs, Caldwell noted.</p><p><blockquote>最近，消费者越来越倾向于大型车辆，而这些车辆往往是汽油动力的。但考德威尔指出，今年，消费者将首次可以选择购买电动卡车，这将消费电动汽车类别扩大到乘用车和 SUV 之外。</blockquote></p><p> By 2030, EV sales worldwide are expected to reach 31.1 million and represent approximately 32% of all new car sales, up from 2.5 million EVs sold last year, according to Deloitte Insights’ “Electric Vehicles Setting a Course for 2030” report.</p><p><blockquote>根据德勤洞察公司（Deloitte Insights）的《电动汽车为2030年设定路线》报告，到2030年，全球电动汽车销量预计将达到3110万辆，约占所有新车销量的32%，高于去年的250万辆。</blockquote></p><p> However, oil and gas companies, especially Royal Dutch Shell&nbsp;(<b>RDS.A</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;and British Petroleum&nbsp;(<b>BP ADR</b>), likely won't go the way of the dinosaurs as demand for their fossil fuels takes a deep dive, analysts say.</p><p><blockquote>然而，石油和天然气公司，尤其是荷兰皇家壳牌公司（<b>RDS.A</b>）-获取报告和英国石油公司（<b>BP ADR</b>分析师表示，随着对化石燃料的需求大幅下降，它们可能不会步恐龙的后尘。</blockquote></p><p> “I’m not sure the transportation industry will get to 100% EV,” said Jamie Hamilton, director and leader in the UK automotive sector strategy and operations for Deloitte. “Passenger cars may get there in the next five to 10 years depending on prices coming down and charging infrastructure rollouts, but freight and heavy vehicles may not” due to their weight.</p><p><blockquote>“德勤英国汽车行业战略与运营总监兼负责人杰米-汉密尔顿（Jamie Hamilton）说：”我不确定交通运输行业能否实现 100% 电动汽车。“乘用车可能会在未来五到十年内达到这一水平，这取决于价格下降和充电基础设施的推出，但货运和重型车辆可能不会”，因为它们的重量。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Dinosaurs Learn a New Dance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>恐龙学习新舞蹈</b></blockquote></p><p> The oil and gas industry is exploring a number of workarounds to avoid the financial hit from a potential decline in oil and gas demand brought on by electric vehicles. They received a taste of what a big dip in transportation demand would look like when COVID-19 hit and people hunkered down at home versus heading into the office or traveling.</p><p><blockquote>石油和天然气行业正在探索许多变通办法，以避免电动汽车带来的石油和天然气需求潜在下降带来的财务打击。他们尝到了当新冠肺炎来袭，人们窝在家里而不是去办公室或旅行时，交通需求的大幅下降会是什么样子。</blockquote></p><p> “Most of the oil and gas industry already had an eye on the changes going on in the larger market for some time, so the growth of EVs is not a surprise. But with the decline in driving and commuting with COVID, this was more stark than people predicted,” said Kate Hardin, executive director of Deloitte Energy, Resources and Industrials research center. “That took commuting down by 40% to 50% in some communities.”</p><p><blockquote>“德勤能源、资源和工业研究中心执行主任凯特-哈丁（Kate Hardin）说：”大多数石油和天然气行业已经关注了更大市场的变化一段时间，因此电动汽车的增长并不令人意外。但随着驾驶和通勤使用 COVID 的减少，这比人们预测的要明显得多。“这使得一些社区的通勤率下降了 40% 到 50%”。</blockquote></p><p> Hardin said there has been a lot of discussion among large oil and gas companies to explore new business models, such as developing solar energy, battery technology and energy storage.</p><p><blockquote>哈丁表示，大型石油和天然气公司之间已经进行了大量讨论，以探索新的商业模式，例如开发太阳能、电池技术和储能。</blockquote></p><p> Many fossil fuel companies are investing in power generation, such as renewable energy including solar and wind, Romeo said. Currently, the oil and gas industry is investing 15% of its total capital into power generation, and that is expected to increase to 25% after 2025.</p><p><blockquote>罗密欧说，许多化石燃料公司正在投资发电，例如太阳能和风能等可再生能源。目前，石油和天然气行业将其总资本的15%投资于发电，预计2025年后这一比例将增至25%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> However, the power generation business has returns of 10% at best, while the downstream business of refining fossil fuels has returns of 10% to 15% and the upstream business of extracting and producing the fuels about 20%, Romeo said. While the oil and gas business generally has higher returns, Rome said it is also far more volatile than the power generation business.</p><p><blockquote>然而，罗密欧表示，发电业务的回报率最多只有10%，而下游提炼化石燃料业务的回报率为10%至15%，上游提取和生产燃料业务的回报率约为20%。虽然石油和天然气业务通常具有较高的回报，但罗马表示，该业务的波动性也远远高于发电业务。</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, the cost of capital for the oil and gas business is higher than that for the renewables industry, due to increasing environmental, social and governance (ESG)- related concerns in the oil and gas business, and declining interest from investors.</p><p><blockquote>此外，由于石油和天然气业务对环境、社会和治理（ESG）相关的担忧日益增加，以及投资者兴趣下降，石油和天然气业务的资本成本高于可再生能源行业。</blockquote></p><p> “There is always a balance that has to be weighed,” Romeo said.</p><p><blockquote>“罗密欧说：”总有一个天平需要权衡。</blockquote></p><p> <b>One-Stop Shop Strategy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>一站式商店策略</b></blockquote></p><p> The larger oil and gas companies are also evaluating the design and use of their retail gas stations as consumers’ needs and behavior are expected to change.</p><p><blockquote>随着消费者的需求和行为预计会发生变化，大型石油和天然气公司也在评估其零售加油站的设计和使用。</blockquote></p><p> Companies with a large network of gas stations are considering transitioning them to EV charging stations, and those that have convenience stores as part of their stations expect to make even more money off of them once they are converted. That’s because charging an EV typically takes significantly longer than filling an internal combustion engine vehicle with gas.</p><p><blockquote>拥有大型加油站网络的公司正在考虑将其过渡到电动汽车充电站，而那些将便利店作为加油站一部分的公司预计，一旦它们被转换，就能从中赚到更多的钱。这是因为给电动汽车充电通常比给内燃机汽车加满汽油所需的时间要长得多。</blockquote></p><p> Companies in Europe and the U.S. actually get more revenue from their non-fuel business at their retail stations than they do from fuel, Romeo said.</p><p><blockquote>罗密欧说，欧洲和美国的公司实际上从零售站的非燃料业务中获得的收入比从燃料中获得的收入更多。</blockquote></p><p> “Oil companies see [that] as people charge their cars, they will spend more time in retail stores drinking coffee, shopping for groceries,” Romeo said. “BP and Shell are already talking about this.”</p><p><blockquote>“罗密欧说：”石油公司认为，随着人们给汽车充电，他们会花更多的时间在零售店喝咖啡、购买食品杂货。“英国石油公司和壳牌公司已经在讨论这个问题了。”</blockquote></p><p> However, people will also be using retail charging stations less often because they can charge their cars at home, at work or at other places that have charging stations.</p><p><blockquote>然而，人们也将减少使用零售充电站的频率，因为他们可以在家里、工作场所或其他有充电站的地方给汽车充电。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Other Survival Strategies</b></p><p><blockquote><b>其他生存策略</b></blockquote></p><p> Biofuels, which are produced from organic material such as corn, other vegetables and animal fats, are another area that oil and gas companies are exploring. For the aviation industry, biofuel is currently being mixed in with traditional jet fuel, but Boeing BA, for example, plans to fly its fleet using 100% biofuel by 2030, according to Reuters.</p><p><blockquote>生物燃料由玉米、其他蔬菜和动物脂肪等有机材料制成，是石油和天然气公司正在探索的另一个领域。据路透社报道，对于航空业来说，生物燃料目前正与传统喷气燃料混合使用，但据路透社报道，波音公司计划到 2030 年让其机队使用 100% 生物燃料飞行。</blockquote></p><p> Biofuels have high returns on investment too, Romeo noted. One company, Finland-based Neste (OTC: NTOIY), recently moved away from traditional refining to become the world’s largest renewable diesel producer, generating 30% returns compared to 12% for its traditional refining business.</p><p><blockquote>罗密欧指出，生物燃料的投资回报率也很高。总部位于芬兰的 Neste（OTC：NTOIY）公司最近摆脱了传统炼油业务，成为世界上最大的可再生柴油生产商，其传统炼油业务的回报率为 30%，而其传统炼油业务的回报率为 12%。</blockquote></p><p> Integrated oil and gas companies, which handle all three aspects of the process including exploration, production and refining, are also investing in hydrogen and batteries. Because renewable energy sources such as solar and wind do not provide a constant stream of energy, the energy they generate needs to be stored in either hydrogen or batteries for later use.</p><p><blockquote>综合石油和天然气公司负责勘探、生产和精炼等过程的所有三个方面，也在投资氢和电池。因为太阳能和风能等可再生能源不能提供恒定的能量流，所以它们产生的能量需要储存在氢气或电池中以备后用。</blockquote></p><p> Storing energy can be profitable since it allows companies like Shell and British Petroleum to act as energy traders that leverage supply and demand. Shell, for example, plans to increase its power trading business from 255 Terawatts per hour (TWh) now to 560TWh in 2030, Romeo said.</p><p><blockquote>储存能源可以盈利，因为它允许壳牌和英国石油公司等公司充当利用供需的能源交易商。罗密欧表示，例如，壳牌计划将其电力交易业务从目前的 255 太瓦/小时 (TWh) 增加到 2030 年的 560TWh。</blockquote></p><p> The battery energy storage market is expected to reach $19.7 billion by 2027, according to Fortune Business Insights. However, that’s a drop in the bucket compared to the global oil and gas exploration and production market, which is expected to reach an estimated $2.1 trillion this year, according to IBISWorld.</p><p><blockquote>根据《财富》商业洞察，到 2027 年，电池储能市场预计将达到 197 亿美元。然而，与全球石油和天然气勘探和生产市场相比，这只是九牛一毛，根据 IBISWorld 的数据，今年的全球石油和天然气勘探和生产市场预计将达到 2.1 万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Which Oil Companies Could Still Thrive</b></p><p><blockquote><b>哪些石油公司仍然可以蓬勃发展</b></blockquote></p><p> Potentialwinners in making the transitionas electric vehicles eat into their fossil fuel business include Shell.</p><p><blockquote>随着电动汽车蚕食化石燃料业务，实现转型的潜在赢家包括壳牌。</blockquote></p><p> “I like Shell -- I believe they see energy transition from the right angle,” Romeo said. “They view themselves as an energy center that delivers lower-carbon energy solutions. They don’t seek to own capacity but instead, they plan to deliver de-carbonization solutions to their customers via a combination of renewable power, carbon credits, and other offsets.”</p><p><blockquote>“罗密欧说：”我喜欢壳牌公司--我相信他们从正确的角度看待能源转型。“他们将自己视为提供低碳能源解决方案的能源中心。他们并不寻求拥有自己的产能，而是计划通过可再生能源、碳信用额和其他抵消措施的结合，为客户提供脱碳解决方案”。</blockquote></p><p> Edmunds’ Caldwell believes the traditional oil and gas companies have some staying power, despite recent moves by states and nations to limit the sale of new gas-powered vehicles over the next several decades.</p><p><blockquote>埃德蒙兹的考德威尔认为，尽管各州和民族最近采取措施限制未来几十年新燃气动力汽车的销售，但传统的石油和天然气公司仍有一定的持久力。</blockquote></p><p> “Gas-powered vehicles are not going away overnight. The bans are on new vehicle sales and not ownership of gas-powered vehicles. I think there will be a long window for the oil and gas industries to pivot. It is not a flip of the switch and they’re gone,” Caldwell said.</p><p><blockquote>“燃气动力汽车不会在一夜之间消失。禁令针对的是新车销售，而不是燃气动力汽车的所有权。我认为，石油和天然气行业将有一个很长的转型窗口。这不是一个转动开关就会消失的，”考德威尔说。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610613172068","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What the Growing Ascendance of Electric Vehicles Means for Oil and Gas Stocks<blockquote>电动汽车日益增长的优势对石油和天然气股票意味着什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat the Growing Ascendance of Electric Vehicles Means for Oil and Gas Stocks<blockquote>电动汽车日益增长的优势对石油和天然气股票意味着什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Street</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-24 15:01</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>As Tesla and other carmakers ramp up the number of EVs on the road, oil and gas companies are trying out a host of strategies to compensate.</b>  Electric vehicles (EVs) are poised to run over the oil and gas industry -- at least that’s what it seems like at first glance.</p><p><blockquote><b>随着特斯拉和其他汽车制造商增加上路电动汽车的数量，石油和天然气公司正在尝试一系列策略来弥补。</b>电动汽车（EV）即将席卷石油和天然气行业--至少乍一看是这样。</blockquote></p><p> By 2050, the vast majority of transport vehicles on the road across the globe are expected to be electric, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). And the transportation industry contributes roughly half of all the business for integrated oil and gas companies, which handle all three aspects of the process from exploration to production to refining, according to Giacomo Romeo, integrated oil and gas analyst with Jefferies Group.</p><p><blockquote>据国际能源署（IEA）称，到2050年，全球道路上的绝大多数运输车辆预计将是电动的。杰富瑞集团 (Jefferies Group) 综合石油和天然气分析师贾科莫·罗密欧 (Giacomo Romeo) 表示，运输行业约占综合石油和天然气公司所有业务的一半，这些公司处理从勘探到生产再到炼油的所有三个方面。</blockquote></p><p> Electric passenger vehicles such as the Tesla&nbsp;(<b>TSLA</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;Model 3, Nissan’s&nbsp;(<b>NSANY</b>)&nbsp;Leaf, Hyundai’s&nbsp;(<b>HYMTF</b>)&nbsp;Kona Electric and others are expected to account for 86% of all passenger vehicles on the road by 2050,up dramaticallyfrom just 1% last year. Meanwhile, electric vans are expected to soar to 84% of all vans from 0% last year, while 79% of buses and 59% of heavy trucks will be electric, up from 2% and 0%, respectively, according to IEA’s report “Net Zero by 2050: A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector.”</p><p><blockquote>电动乘用车，如特斯拉（<b>特斯拉</b>) -获取报告 Model 3，日产 (<b>恩萨尼</b>) 聆风，现代的 (<b>HYMTF</b>) 预计到 2050 年，Kona Electric 和其他公司将占道路上所有乘用车的 86%，比去年的 1% 大幅上升。与此同时，根据国际能源署的报告《到2050年实现净零：全球能源行业路线图》，电动货车预计将从去年的0%飙升至84%，而79%的公共汽车和59%的重型卡车将是电动的，分别从2%和0%有所上升。</blockquote></p><p> Catalysts driving this growth in the U.S. are expected to come from car manufacturers increasing both the total number of electric vehicles and the number of models they offer, government agencies offering incentives to consumers to purchase electric vehicles and support from President Biden to increase the use of electric vehicles, according to Edmunds. The automotive research firm released a report this year that found the U.S. electric vehicle market is on track to post record sales this year, with EVs expected to represent 2.5% of U.S. vehicle sales this year, up from 1.9% in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>推动美国这一增长的催化剂预计将来自汽车制造商增加电动汽车的总数和提供的车型数量、政府机构为消费者购买电动汽车提供激励措施以及拜登总统支持增加电动汽车的使用埃德蒙兹表示。这家汽车研究公司今年发布的一份报告发现，美国电动汽车市场今年的销量有望创下历史新高，电动汽车预计将占今年美国汽车销量的2.5%，高于2020年的1.9%。</blockquote></p><p> “Price and choice of models are the biggest barriers to buying EVs for consumers,” said Jessica Caldwell, executive director of insights for Edmunds. “You always pay more for EVs and once people start shopping for a car, they start with the intent of buying an EV, but when they begin to compare they see they can get a bigger one with more features than an EV. People equate bigger with better and think it’s a nicer car and more worthy.\"</p><p><blockquote>“Edmunds insights 执行董事杰西卡-考德威尔（Jessica Caldwell）说：”价格和车型选择是消费者购买电动汽车的最大障碍。“你总是要花更多的钱买电动汽车，一旦人们开始购买汽车，他们一开始就打算买电动汽车，但当他们开始比较时，他们发现他们可以买到比电动汽车功能更多的更大的电动汽车。人们把更大等同于更好，认为这是一辆更好、更有价值的车”。</blockquote></p><p> Recently, consumers’ preference hasswung to larger vehiclesand those tend to be gas-powered. But this year, for the first time, consumers will have the option of purchasing electric trucks, which expands the consumer EV categories beyond just passenger cars and SUVs, Caldwell noted.</p><p><blockquote>最近，消费者越来越倾向于大型车辆，而这些车辆往往是汽油动力的。但考德威尔指出，今年，消费者将首次可以选择购买电动卡车，这将消费电动汽车类别扩大到乘用车和 SUV 之外。</blockquote></p><p> By 2030, EV sales worldwide are expected to reach 31.1 million and represent approximately 32% of all new car sales, up from 2.5 million EVs sold last year, according to Deloitte Insights’ “Electric Vehicles Setting a Course for 2030” report.</p><p><blockquote>根据德勤洞察公司（Deloitte Insights）的《电动汽车为2030年设定路线》报告，到2030年，全球电动汽车销量预计将达到3110万辆，约占所有新车销量的32%，高于去年的250万辆。</blockquote></p><p> However, oil and gas companies, especially Royal Dutch Shell&nbsp;(<b>RDS.A</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;and British Petroleum&nbsp;(<b>BP ADR</b>), likely won't go the way of the dinosaurs as demand for their fossil fuels takes a deep dive, analysts say.</p><p><blockquote>然而，石油和天然气公司，尤其是荷兰皇家壳牌公司（<b>RDS.A</b>）-获取报告和英国石油公司（<b>BP ADR</b>分析师表示，随着对化石燃料的需求大幅下降，它们可能不会步恐龙的后尘。</blockquote></p><p> “I’m not sure the transportation industry will get to 100% EV,” said Jamie Hamilton, director and leader in the UK automotive sector strategy and operations for Deloitte. “Passenger cars may get there in the next five to 10 years depending on prices coming down and charging infrastructure rollouts, but freight and heavy vehicles may not” due to their weight.</p><p><blockquote>“德勤英国汽车行业战略与运营总监兼负责人杰米-汉密尔顿（Jamie Hamilton）说：”我不确定交通运输行业能否实现 100% 电动汽车。“乘用车可能会在未来五到十年内达到这一水平，这取决于价格下降和充电基础设施的推出，但货运和重型车辆可能不会”，因为它们的重量。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Dinosaurs Learn a New Dance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>恐龙学习新舞蹈</b></blockquote></p><p> The oil and gas industry is exploring a number of workarounds to avoid the financial hit from a potential decline in oil and gas demand brought on by electric vehicles. They received a taste of what a big dip in transportation demand would look like when COVID-19 hit and people hunkered down at home versus heading into the office or traveling.</p><p><blockquote>石油和天然气行业正在探索许多变通办法，以避免电动汽车带来的石油和天然气需求潜在下降带来的财务打击。他们尝到了当新冠肺炎来袭，人们窝在家里而不是去办公室或旅行时，交通需求的大幅下降会是什么样子。</blockquote></p><p> “Most of the oil and gas industry already had an eye on the changes going on in the larger market for some time, so the growth of EVs is not a surprise. But with the decline in driving and commuting with COVID, this was more stark than people predicted,” said Kate Hardin, executive director of Deloitte Energy, Resources and Industrials research center. “That took commuting down by 40% to 50% in some communities.”</p><p><blockquote>“德勤能源、资源和工业研究中心执行主任凯特-哈丁（Kate Hardin）说：”大多数石油和天然气行业已经关注了更大市场的变化一段时间，因此电动汽车的增长并不令人意外。但随着驾驶和通勤使用 COVID 的减少，这比人们预测的要明显得多。“这使得一些社区的通勤率下降了 40% 到 50%”。</blockquote></p><p> Hardin said there has been a lot of discussion among large oil and gas companies to explore new business models, such as developing solar energy, battery technology and energy storage.</p><p><blockquote>哈丁表示，大型石油和天然气公司之间已经进行了大量讨论，以探索新的商业模式，例如开发太阳能、电池技术和储能。</blockquote></p><p> Many fossil fuel companies are investing in power generation, such as renewable energy including solar and wind, Romeo said. Currently, the oil and gas industry is investing 15% of its total capital into power generation, and that is expected to increase to 25% after 2025.</p><p><blockquote>罗密欧说，许多化石燃料公司正在投资发电，例如太阳能和风能等可再生能源。目前，石油和天然气行业将其总资本的15%投资于发电，预计2025年后这一比例将增至25%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> However, the power generation business has returns of 10% at best, while the downstream business of refining fossil fuels has returns of 10% to 15% and the upstream business of extracting and producing the fuels about 20%, Romeo said. While the oil and gas business generally has higher returns, Rome said it is also far more volatile than the power generation business.</p><p><blockquote>然而，罗密欧表示，发电业务的回报率最多只有10%，而下游提炼化石燃料业务的回报率为10%至15%，上游提取和生产燃料业务的回报率约为20%。虽然石油和天然气业务通常具有较高的回报，但罗马表示，该业务的波动性也远远高于发电业务。</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, the cost of capital for the oil and gas business is higher than that for the renewables industry, due to increasing environmental, social and governance (ESG)- related concerns in the oil and gas business, and declining interest from investors.</p><p><blockquote>此外，由于石油和天然气业务对环境、社会和治理（ESG）相关的担忧日益增加，以及投资者兴趣下降，石油和天然气业务的资本成本高于可再生能源行业。</blockquote></p><p> “There is always a balance that has to be weighed,” Romeo said.</p><p><blockquote>“罗密欧说：”总有一个天平需要权衡。</blockquote></p><p> <b>One-Stop Shop Strategy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>一站式商店策略</b></blockquote></p><p> The larger oil and gas companies are also evaluating the design and use of their retail gas stations as consumers’ needs and behavior are expected to change.</p><p><blockquote>随着消费者的需求和行为预计会发生变化，大型石油和天然气公司也在评估其零售加油站的设计和使用。</blockquote></p><p> Companies with a large network of gas stations are considering transitioning them to EV charging stations, and those that have convenience stores as part of their stations expect to make even more money off of them once they are converted. That’s because charging an EV typically takes significantly longer than filling an internal combustion engine vehicle with gas.</p><p><blockquote>拥有大型加油站网络的公司正在考虑将其过渡到电动汽车充电站，而那些将便利店作为加油站一部分的公司预计，一旦它们被转换，就能从中赚到更多的钱。这是因为给电动汽车充电通常比给内燃机汽车加满汽油所需的时间要长得多。</blockquote></p><p> Companies in Europe and the U.S. actually get more revenue from their non-fuel business at their retail stations than they do from fuel, Romeo said.</p><p><blockquote>罗密欧说，欧洲和美国的公司实际上从零售站的非燃料业务中获得的收入比从燃料中获得的收入更多。</blockquote></p><p> “Oil companies see [that] as people charge their cars, they will spend more time in retail stores drinking coffee, shopping for groceries,” Romeo said. “BP and Shell are already talking about this.”</p><p><blockquote>“罗密欧说：”石油公司认为，随着人们给汽车充电，他们会花更多的时间在零售店喝咖啡、购买食品杂货。“英国石油公司和壳牌公司已经在讨论这个问题了。”</blockquote></p><p> However, people will also be using retail charging stations less often because they can charge their cars at home, at work or at other places that have charging stations.</p><p><blockquote>然而，人们也将减少使用零售充电站的频率，因为他们可以在家里、工作场所或其他有充电站的地方给汽车充电。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Other Survival Strategies</b></p><p><blockquote><b>其他生存策略</b></blockquote></p><p> Biofuels, which are produced from organic material such as corn, other vegetables and animal fats, are another area that oil and gas companies are exploring. For the aviation industry, biofuel is currently being mixed in with traditional jet fuel, but Boeing BA, for example, plans to fly its fleet using 100% biofuel by 2030, according to Reuters.</p><p><blockquote>生物燃料由玉米、其他蔬菜和动物脂肪等有机材料制成，是石油和天然气公司正在探索的另一个领域。据路透社报道，对于航空业来说，生物燃料目前正与传统喷气燃料混合使用，但据路透社报道，波音公司计划到 2030 年让其机队使用 100% 生物燃料飞行。</blockquote></p><p> Biofuels have high returns on investment too, Romeo noted. One company, Finland-based Neste (OTC: NTOIY), recently moved away from traditional refining to become the world’s largest renewable diesel producer, generating 30% returns compared to 12% for its traditional refining business.</p><p><blockquote>罗密欧指出，生物燃料的投资回报率也很高。总部位于芬兰的 Neste（OTC：NTOIY）公司最近摆脱了传统炼油业务，成为世界上最大的可再生柴油生产商，其传统炼油业务的回报率为 30%，而其传统炼油业务的回报率为 12%。</blockquote></p><p> Integrated oil and gas companies, which handle all three aspects of the process including exploration, production and refining, are also investing in hydrogen and batteries. Because renewable energy sources such as solar and wind do not provide a constant stream of energy, the energy they generate needs to be stored in either hydrogen or batteries for later use.</p><p><blockquote>综合石油和天然气公司负责勘探、生产和精炼等过程的所有三个方面，也在投资氢和电池。因为太阳能和风能等可再生能源不能提供恒定的能量流，所以它们产生的能量需要储存在氢气或电池中以备后用。</blockquote></p><p> Storing energy can be profitable since it allows companies like Shell and British Petroleum to act as energy traders that leverage supply and demand. Shell, for example, plans to increase its power trading business from 255 Terawatts per hour (TWh) now to 560TWh in 2030, Romeo said.</p><p><blockquote>储存能源可以盈利，因为它允许壳牌和英国石油公司等公司充当利用供需的能源交易商。罗密欧表示，例如，壳牌计划将其电力交易业务从目前的 255 太瓦/小时 (TWh) 增加到 2030 年的 560TWh。</blockquote></p><p> The battery energy storage market is expected to reach $19.7 billion by 2027, according to Fortune Business Insights. However, that’s a drop in the bucket compared to the global oil and gas exploration and production market, which is expected to reach an estimated $2.1 trillion this year, according to IBISWorld.</p><p><blockquote>根据《财富》商业洞察，到 2027 年，电池储能市场预计将达到 197 亿美元。然而，与全球石油和天然气勘探和生产市场相比，这只是九牛一毛，根据 IBISWorld 的数据，今年的全球石油和天然气勘探和生产市场预计将达到 2.1 万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Which Oil Companies Could Still Thrive</b></p><p><blockquote><b>哪些石油公司仍然可以蓬勃发展</b></blockquote></p><p> Potentialwinners in making the transitionas electric vehicles eat into their fossil fuel business include Shell.</p><p><blockquote>随着电动汽车蚕食化石燃料业务，实现转型的潜在赢家包括壳牌。</blockquote></p><p> “I like Shell -- I believe they see energy transition from the right angle,” Romeo said. “They view themselves as an energy center that delivers lower-carbon energy solutions. They don’t seek to own capacity but instead, they plan to deliver de-carbonization solutions to their customers via a combination of renewable power, carbon credits, and other offsets.”</p><p><blockquote>“罗密欧说：”我喜欢壳牌公司--我相信他们从正确的角度看待能源转型。“他们将自己视为提供低碳能源解决方案的能源中心。他们并不寻求拥有自己的产能，而是计划通过可再生能源、碳信用额和其他抵消措施的结合，为客户提供脱碳解决方案”。</blockquote></p><p> Edmunds’ Caldwell believes the traditional oil and gas companies have some staying power, despite recent moves by states and nations to limit the sale of new gas-powered vehicles over the next several decades.</p><p><blockquote>埃德蒙兹的考德威尔认为，尽管各州和民族最近采取措施限制未来几十年新燃气动力汽车的销售，但传统的石油和天然气公司仍有一定的持久力。</blockquote></p><p> “Gas-powered vehicles are not going away overnight. The bans are on new vehicle sales and not ownership of gas-powered vehicles. I think there will be a long window for the oil and gas industries to pivot. It is not a flip of the switch and they’re gone,” Caldwell said.</p><p><blockquote>“燃气动力汽车不会在一夜之间消失。禁令针对的是新车销售，而不是燃气动力汽车的所有权。我认为，石油和天然气行业将有一个很长的转型窗口。这不是一个转动开关就会消失的，”考德威尔说。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/what-growing-ascendance-of-evs-means-for-oil-and-gas-stocks\">The Street</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"RDS.A":"荷兰皇家壳牌石油A类股","BP":"英国石油","NSANY":"日产汽车","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/what-growing-ascendance-of-evs-means-for-oil-and-gas-stocks","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170018171","content_text":"As Tesla and other carmakers ramp up the number of EVs on the road, oil and gas companies are trying out a host of strategies to compensate.\n\nElectric vehicles (EVs) are poised to run over the oil and gas industry -- at least that’s what it seems like at first glance.\nBy 2050, the vast majority of transport vehicles on the road across the globe are expected to be electric, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). And the transportation industry contributes roughly half of all the business for integrated oil and gas companies, which handle all three aspects of the process from exploration to production to refining, according to Giacomo Romeo, integrated oil and gas analyst with Jefferies Group.\nElectric passenger vehicles such as the Tesla (TSLA) -Get Report Model 3, Nissan’s (NSANY) Leaf, Hyundai’s (HYMTF) Kona Electric and others are expected to account for 86% of all passenger vehicles on the road by 2050,up dramaticallyfrom just 1% last year. Meanwhile, electric vans are expected to soar to 84% of all vans from 0% last year, while 79% of buses and 59% of heavy trucks will be electric, up from 2% and 0%, respectively, according to IEA’s report “Net Zero by 2050: A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector.”\nCatalysts driving this growth in the U.S. are expected to come from car manufacturers increasing both the total number of electric vehicles and the number of models they offer, government agencies offering incentives to consumers to purchase electric vehicles and support from President Biden to increase the use of electric vehicles, according to Edmunds. The automotive research firm released a report this year that found the U.S. electric vehicle market is on track to post record sales this year, with EVs expected to represent 2.5% of U.S. vehicle sales this year, up from 1.9% in 2020.\n“Price and choice of models are the biggest barriers to buying EVs for consumers,” said Jessica Caldwell, executive director of insights for Edmunds. “You always pay more for EVs and once people start shopping for a car, they start with the intent of buying an EV, but when they begin to compare they see they can get a bigger one with more features than an EV. People equate bigger with better and think it’s a nicer car and more worthy.\"\nRecently, consumers’ preference hasswung to larger vehiclesand those tend to be gas-powered. But this year, for the first time, consumers will have the option of purchasing electric trucks, which expands the consumer EV categories beyond just passenger cars and SUVs, Caldwell noted.\nBy 2030, EV sales worldwide are expected to reach 31.1 million and represent approximately 32% of all new car sales, up from 2.5 million EVs sold last year, according to Deloitte Insights’ “Electric Vehicles Setting a Course for 2030” report.\nHowever, oil and gas companies, especially Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) -Get Report and British Petroleum (BP ADR), likely won't go the way of the dinosaurs as demand for their fossil fuels takes a deep dive, analysts say.\n“I’m not sure the transportation industry will get to 100% EV,” said Jamie Hamilton, director and leader in the UK automotive sector strategy and operations for Deloitte. “Passenger cars may get there in the next five to 10 years depending on prices coming down and charging infrastructure rollouts, but freight and heavy vehicles may not” due to their weight.\nDinosaurs Learn a New Dance\nThe oil and gas industry is exploring a number of workarounds to avoid the financial hit from a potential decline in oil and gas demand brought on by electric vehicles. They received a taste of what a big dip in transportation demand would look like when COVID-19 hit and people hunkered down at home versus heading into the office or traveling.\n“Most of the oil and gas industry already had an eye on the changes going on in the larger market for some time, so the growth of EVs is not a surprise. But with the decline in driving and commuting with COVID, this was more stark than people predicted,” said Kate Hardin, executive director of Deloitte Energy, Resources and Industrials research center. “That took commuting down by 40% to 50% in some communities.”\nHardin said there has been a lot of discussion among large oil and gas companies to explore new business models, such as developing solar energy, battery technology and energy storage.\nMany fossil fuel companies are investing in power generation, such as renewable energy including solar and wind, Romeo said. Currently, the oil and gas industry is investing 15% of its total capital into power generation, and that is expected to increase to 25% after 2025.\nHowever, the power generation business has returns of 10% at best, while the downstream business of refining fossil fuels has returns of 10% to 15% and the upstream business of extracting and producing the fuels about 20%, Romeo said. While the oil and gas business generally has higher returns, Rome said it is also far more volatile than the power generation business.\nAdditionally, the cost of capital for the oil and gas business is higher than that for the renewables industry, due to increasing environmental, social and governance (ESG)- related concerns in the oil and gas business, and declining interest from investors.\n“There is always a balance that has to be weighed,” Romeo said.\nOne-Stop Shop Strategy\nThe larger oil and gas companies are also evaluating the design and use of their retail gas stations as consumers’ needs and behavior are expected to change.\nCompanies with a large network of gas stations are considering transitioning them to EV charging stations, and those that have convenience stores as part of their stations expect to make even more money off of them once they are converted. That’s because charging an EV typically takes significantly longer than filling an internal combustion engine vehicle with gas.\nCompanies in Europe and the U.S. actually get more revenue from their non-fuel business at their retail stations than they do from fuel, Romeo said.\n“Oil companies see [that] as people charge their cars, they will spend more time in retail stores drinking coffee, shopping for groceries,” Romeo said. “BP and Shell are already talking about this.”\nHowever, people will also be using retail charging stations less often because they can charge their cars at home, at work or at other places that have charging stations.\nOther Survival Strategies\nBiofuels, which are produced from organic material such as corn, other vegetables and animal fats, are another area that oil and gas companies are exploring. For the aviation industry, biofuel is currently being mixed in with traditional jet fuel, but Boeing BA, for example, plans to fly its fleet using 100% biofuel by 2030, according to Reuters.\nBiofuels have high returns on investment too, Romeo noted. One company, Finland-based Neste (OTC: NTOIY), recently moved away from traditional refining to become the world’s largest renewable diesel producer, generating 30% returns compared to 12% for its traditional refining business.\nIntegrated oil and gas companies, which handle all three aspects of the process including exploration, production and refining, are also investing in hydrogen and batteries. Because renewable energy sources such as solar and wind do not provide a constant stream of energy, the energy they generate needs to be stored in either hydrogen or batteries for later use.\nStoring energy can be profitable since it allows companies like Shell and British Petroleum to act as energy traders that leverage supply and demand. Shell, for example, plans to increase its power trading business from 255 Terawatts per hour (TWh) now to 560TWh in 2030, Romeo said.\nThe battery energy storage market is expected to reach $19.7 billion by 2027, according to Fortune Business Insights. However, that’s a drop in the bucket compared to the global oil and gas exploration and production market, which is expected to reach an estimated $2.1 trillion this year, according to IBISWorld.\nWhich Oil Companies Could Still Thrive\nPotentialwinners in making the transitionas electric vehicles eat into their fossil fuel business include Shell.\n“I like Shell -- I believe they see energy transition from the right angle,” Romeo said. “They view themselves as an energy center that delivers lower-carbon energy solutions. They don’t seek to own capacity but instead, they plan to deliver de-carbonization solutions to their customers via a combination of renewable power, carbon credits, and other offsets.”\nEdmunds’ Caldwell believes the traditional oil and gas companies have some staying power, despite recent moves by states and nations to limit the sale of new gas-powered vehicles over the next several decades.\n“Gas-powered vehicles are not going away overnight. The bans are on new vehicle sales and not ownership of gas-powered vehicles. I think there will be a long window for the oil and gas industries to pivot. It is not a flip of the switch and they’re gone,” Caldwell said.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"RDS.A":0.9,"NSANY":0.9,"BP":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,"HYMTF":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2071,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":134932777,"gmtCreate":1622199077599,"gmtModify":1634182934480,"author":{"id":"3583447705533959","authorId":"3583447705533959","name":"Kmj121","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c59f0eacf93cd197ec1e2105b1796413","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583447705533959","idStr":"3583447705533959"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>及时上车","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>及时上车","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$及时上车","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66947a46092de49ba7321364b5cd9b7d","width":"1242","height":"2001"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/134932777","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2158,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":176719983,"gmtCreate":1626915575342,"gmtModify":1633769803857,"author":{"id":"3583447705533959","authorId":"3583447705533959","name":"Kmj121","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c59f0eacf93cd197ec1e2105b1796413","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583447705533959","idStr":"3583447705533959"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/176719983","repostId":"1186011456","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1186011456","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626915117,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1186011456?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-22 08:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Intel Reports Earnings Thursday. Here’s What to Expect.<blockquote>英特尔周四公布财报。以下是可以期待的。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1186011456","media":"Barrons","summary":"When Intel reports earnings Thursday after the closing bell, it’s going to have to put in some work to convince investors the past three months have gone well.Expectations for chip companies are already high heading into the June quarter, as investors are looking for a batch of earnings that beat estimates and bullish guidance, according to tech strategist Ted Mortonson. However, shares of Intel  13% during the second quarter as the benchmark PHLX Semiconductor index, or Sox, gained 1.7% But so ","content":"<p>When Intel reports earnings Thursday after the closing bell, it’s going to have to put in some work to convince investors the past three months have gone well.</p><p><blockquote>当英特尔在周四收盘后公布财报时，它将不得不做一些工作来说服投资者过去三个月的业绩很好。</blockquote></p><p> Expectations for chip companies are already high heading into the June quarter, as investors are looking for a batch of earnings that beat estimates and bullish guidance, according to tech strategist Ted Mortonson. However, shares of Intel (ticker: INTC) 13% during the second quarter as the benchmark PHLX Semiconductor index, or Sox, gained 1.7% But so long as nothing like last year’s delay of its advanced manufacturing process happens, Intel can likely continue to ride the big demand around the world for chips through the end of the year.</p><p><blockquote>科技策略师泰德·莫顿森 (Ted Mortonson) 表示，进入 6 月份季度，芯片公司的预期已经很高，因为投资者正在寻找一批超出预期和看涨指引的收益。不过，英特尔（股票代码：INTC）的股价在第二季度上涨了 13%，基准 PHLX 半导体指数（Sox）上涨了 1.7%。</blockquote></p><p> Newly installed chief executive Pat Gelsinger has already started to make big changes during the second quarter, doubling down on the company’s manufacturing business for its own chips while at the same time expanding its scope by starting a contract manufacturing unit called Intel Foundry Services. He also instituted major personnel changes and restructured parts of the company’s operations.</p><p><blockquote>新上任的首席执行官帕特-基辛格（Pat Gelsinger）已经在第二季度开始做出重大改变，加倍加大公司自有芯片制造业务的力度，同时通过成立一个名为英特尔代工服务公司（Intel Foundry Services）的合同制造部门来扩大业务范围。他还进行了重大人事变动，并重组了公司的部分业务。</blockquote></p><p> Investors should parse Intel’s Thursday conference call with executives for clues about the company’s forthcoming strategy, including confirmation or details on the company’s talks for a $30 billion bid for U.S.-based semiconductor manufacturing company GlobalFoundries, which The Wall Street Journal reported last Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>据《华尔街日报》上周四报道，投资者应分析英特尔周四与高管的电话会议，以获取有关该公司即将出台的战略的线索，包括该公司就以 300 亿美元收购美国半导体制造公司 GlobalFoundries 进行谈判的确认或细节。</blockquote></p><p> GlobalFoundries CEOTom Caulfieldappeared to curb expectations that a deal was in the works in an interview with Bloomberg Television late Monday. The Journal reported last Thursday that Global Foundries executives weren’t involved in the talks; the talks were between Intel and the Abu Dhabi government’s Mubadala Investment vehicle that owns GlobalFoundries. A person familiar with how Mubadala operates told Barron’‘s that keeping GlobalFoundries unaware of a potential deal with Intel would be typical of its behavior.</p><p><blockquote>GlobalFoundries 首席执行官 Tom Caulfield 在周一晚间接受彭博电视台采访时似乎抑制了交易正在进行中的预期。《华尔街日报》上周四报道称，全球代工厂的高管没有参与会谈；会谈是在英特尔和阿布扎比政府拥有 GlobalFoundries 的穆巴达拉投资机构之间进行的。一位熟悉 Mubadala 运作方式的人士告诉《巴伦周刊》，让 GlobalFoundries 不知道与英特尔可能达成的交易是其典型行为。</blockquote></p><p> Overall, the consensus forecast for second-quarter adjusted earnings is $1.07 a share on revenue of $17.8 billion. Intel sold its memory business last year, which the company and investors often exclude from its revenue.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，第二季度调整后收益的普遍预测为每股 1.07 美元，营收为 178 亿美元。英特尔去年出售了其内存业务，该公司和投资者经常将其排除在收入之外。</blockquote></p><p> For the second quarter, investors will be closely watching Intel’s data center business. At the moment, the consensus forecast for Intel’s second-quarter data-center revenue is a decrease of 17% to $5.9 billion, compared with the year-ago period. Still, it’s expected to rise sequentially, from revenue of $5.6 billion in the first quarter.</p><p><blockquote>第二季度，投资者将密切关注英特尔的数据中心业务。目前，人们普遍预测英特尔第二季度数据中心收入将比去年同期下降 17%，降至 59 亿美元。尽管如此，预计该公司仍将在第一季度营收 56 亿美元的基础上逐步上升。</blockquote></p><p> Evercore analyst C.J. Muse wrote in a client note that data-center spending recovery, combined with growth in artificial intelligence and machine learning computing–tasks which are typically performed in data centers–could help boost Intel’s revenue for the segment above his outlook.</p><p><blockquote>Evercore分析师C.J。缪斯在一份客户说明中写道，数据中心支出的复苏，再加上人工智能和机器学习计算（通常在数据中心执行的任务）的增长，可能会帮助英特尔在该领域的收入超过他的预期。</blockquote></p><p> Though there are reports that the pandemic-spurred boom of personal computer sales has started to slow, Susquehanna Financial Group analystChristopher Rollandpredicted that Intel will likely achieve its guidance or perform slightly better based on his checks. At the moment, the consensus estimate for Intel’s PC segment is for second-quarter revenue growth of 4.9% to just under $10 billion.</p><p><blockquote>尽管有报道称大流行刺激的个人电脑销售繁荣已经开始放缓，但萨斯奎汉纳金融集团分析师克里斯托弗·罗兰根据他的检查预测，英特尔可能会实现其指引或表现略好。目前，人们普遍预计英特尔个人电脑部门第二季度收入将增长 4.9%，略低于 100 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Rolland also said that his team has uncovered modest supply constraints for PCs built around chips made by Intel rival Advanced Micro Devices (AMD). If that turns out to be true, it would benefit Intel’s second-quarter PC sales, Rolland said. AMD declined to comment, citing its quiet period ahead of earnings.</p><p><blockquote>罗兰还表示，他的团队发现了围绕英特尔竞争对手先进微设备公司（AMD）制造的芯片制造的个人电脑的适度供应限制。罗兰说，如果情况属实，这将有利于英特尔第二季度的个人电脑销售。AMD 拒绝置评，理由是财报发布前的平静期。</blockquote></p><p> Of the analysts who cover Intel, 18 rate shares Buy, 16 have a Hold rating, and 10 rate it Sell. The average target price is $66.79, which implies a return of 21% from a recent price of $55.</p><p><blockquote>在研究英特尔的分析师中，18 位给予买入评级，16 位给予持有评级，10 位给予卖出评级。平均目标价为 66.79 美元，这意味着较近期 55 美元的价格回报率为 21%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Intel Reports Earnings Thursday. Here’s What to Expect.<blockquote>英特尔周四公布财报。以下是可以期待的。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIntel Reports Earnings Thursday. Here’s What to Expect.<blockquote>英特尔周四公布财报。以下是可以期待的。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-22 08:51</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>When Intel reports earnings Thursday after the closing bell, it’s going to have to put in some work to convince investors the past three months have gone well.</p><p><blockquote>当英特尔在周四收盘后公布财报时，它将不得不做一些工作来说服投资者过去三个月的业绩很好。</blockquote></p><p> Expectations for chip companies are already high heading into the June quarter, as investors are looking for a batch of earnings that beat estimates and bullish guidance, according to tech strategist Ted Mortonson. However, shares of Intel (ticker: INTC) 13% during the second quarter as the benchmark PHLX Semiconductor index, or Sox, gained 1.7% But so long as nothing like last year’s delay of its advanced manufacturing process happens, Intel can likely continue to ride the big demand around the world for chips through the end of the year.</p><p><blockquote>科技策略师泰德·莫顿森 (Ted Mortonson) 表示，进入 6 月份季度，芯片公司的预期已经很高，因为投资者正在寻找一批超出预期和看涨指引的收益。不过，英特尔（股票代码：INTC）的股价在第二季度上涨了 13%，基准 PHLX 半导体指数（Sox）上涨了 1.7%。</blockquote></p><p> Newly installed chief executive Pat Gelsinger has already started to make big changes during the second quarter, doubling down on the company’s manufacturing business for its own chips while at the same time expanding its scope by starting a contract manufacturing unit called Intel Foundry Services. He also instituted major personnel changes and restructured parts of the company’s operations.</p><p><blockquote>新上任的首席执行官帕特-基辛格（Pat Gelsinger）已经在第二季度开始做出重大改变，加倍加大公司自有芯片制造业务的力度，同时通过成立一个名为英特尔代工服务公司（Intel Foundry Services）的合同制造部门来扩大业务范围。他还进行了重大人事变动，并重组了公司的部分业务。</blockquote></p><p> Investors should parse Intel’s Thursday conference call with executives for clues about the company’s forthcoming strategy, including confirmation or details on the company’s talks for a $30 billion bid for U.S.-based semiconductor manufacturing company GlobalFoundries, which The Wall Street Journal reported last Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>据《华尔街日报》上周四报道，投资者应分析英特尔周四与高管的电话会议，以获取有关该公司即将出台的战略的线索，包括该公司就以 300 亿美元收购美国半导体制造公司 GlobalFoundries 进行谈判的确认或细节。</blockquote></p><p> GlobalFoundries CEOTom Caulfieldappeared to curb expectations that a deal was in the works in an interview with Bloomberg Television late Monday. The Journal reported last Thursday that Global Foundries executives weren’t involved in the talks; the talks were between Intel and the Abu Dhabi government’s Mubadala Investment vehicle that owns GlobalFoundries. A person familiar with how Mubadala operates told Barron’‘s that keeping GlobalFoundries unaware of a potential deal with Intel would be typical of its behavior.</p><p><blockquote>GlobalFoundries 首席执行官 Tom Caulfield 在周一晚间接受彭博电视台采访时似乎抑制了交易正在进行中的预期。《华尔街日报》上周四报道称，全球代工厂的高管没有参与会谈；会谈是在英特尔和阿布扎比政府拥有 GlobalFoundries 的穆巴达拉投资机构之间进行的。一位熟悉 Mubadala 运作方式的人士告诉《巴伦周刊》，让 GlobalFoundries 不知道与英特尔可能达成的交易是其典型行为。</blockquote></p><p> Overall, the consensus forecast for second-quarter adjusted earnings is $1.07 a share on revenue of $17.8 billion. Intel sold its memory business last year, which the company and investors often exclude from its revenue.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，第二季度调整后收益的普遍预测为每股 1.07 美元，营收为 178 亿美元。英特尔去年出售了其内存业务，该公司和投资者经常将其排除在收入之外。</blockquote></p><p> For the second quarter, investors will be closely watching Intel’s data center business. At the moment, the consensus forecast for Intel’s second-quarter data-center revenue is a decrease of 17% to $5.9 billion, compared with the year-ago period. Still, it’s expected to rise sequentially, from revenue of $5.6 billion in the first quarter.</p><p><blockquote>第二季度，投资者将密切关注英特尔的数据中心业务。目前，人们普遍预测英特尔第二季度数据中心收入将比去年同期下降 17%，降至 59 亿美元。尽管如此，预计该公司仍将在第一季度营收 56 亿美元的基础上逐步上升。</blockquote></p><p> Evercore analyst C.J. Muse wrote in a client note that data-center spending recovery, combined with growth in artificial intelligence and machine learning computing–tasks which are typically performed in data centers–could help boost Intel’s revenue for the segment above his outlook.</p><p><blockquote>Evercore分析师C.J。缪斯在一份客户说明中写道，数据中心支出的复苏，再加上人工智能和机器学习计算（通常在数据中心执行的任务）的增长，可能会帮助英特尔在该领域的收入超过他的预期。</blockquote></p><p> Though there are reports that the pandemic-spurred boom of personal computer sales has started to slow, Susquehanna Financial Group analystChristopher Rollandpredicted that Intel will likely achieve its guidance or perform slightly better based on his checks. At the moment, the consensus estimate for Intel’s PC segment is for second-quarter revenue growth of 4.9% to just under $10 billion.</p><p><blockquote>尽管有报道称大流行刺激的个人电脑销售繁荣已经开始放缓，但萨斯奎汉纳金融集团分析师克里斯托弗·罗兰根据他的检查预测，英特尔可能会实现其指引或表现略好。目前，人们普遍预计英特尔个人电脑部门第二季度收入将增长 4.9%，略低于 100 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Rolland also said that his team has uncovered modest supply constraints for PCs built around chips made by Intel rival Advanced Micro Devices (AMD). If that turns out to be true, it would benefit Intel’s second-quarter PC sales, Rolland said. AMD declined to comment, citing its quiet period ahead of earnings.</p><p><blockquote>罗兰还表示，他的团队发现了围绕英特尔竞争对手先进微设备公司（AMD）制造的芯片制造的个人电脑的适度供应限制。罗兰说，如果情况属实，这将有利于英特尔第二季度的个人电脑销售。AMD 拒绝置评，理由是财报发布前的平静期。</blockquote></p><p> Of the analysts who cover Intel, 18 rate shares Buy, 16 have a Hold rating, and 10 rate it Sell. The average target price is $66.79, which implies a return of 21% from a recent price of $55.</p><p><blockquote>在研究英特尔的分析师中，18 位给予买入评级，16 位给予持有评级，10 位给予卖出评级。平均目标价为 66.79 美元，这意味着较近期 55 美元的价格回报率为 21%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/intel-earnings-51626886116?siteid=yhoof2\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"INTC":"英特尔"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/intel-earnings-51626886116?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1186011456","content_text":"When Intel reports earnings Thursday after the closing bell, it’s going to have to put in some work to convince investors the past three months have gone well.\nExpectations for chip companies are already high heading into the June quarter, as investors are looking for a batch of earnings that beat estimates and bullish guidance, according to tech strategist Ted Mortonson. However, shares of Intel (ticker: INTC) 13% during the second quarter as the benchmark PHLX Semiconductor index, or Sox, gained 1.7% But so long as nothing like last year’s delay of its advanced manufacturing process happens, Intel can likely continue to ride the big demand around the world for chips through the end of the year.\nNewly installed chief executive Pat Gelsinger has already started to make big changes during the second quarter, doubling down on the company’s manufacturing business for its own chips while at the same time expanding its scope by starting a contract manufacturing unit called Intel Foundry Services. He also instituted major personnel changes and restructured parts of the company’s operations.\nInvestors should parse Intel’s Thursday conference call with executives for clues about the company’s forthcoming strategy, including confirmation or details on the company’s talks for a $30 billion bid for U.S.-based semiconductor manufacturing company GlobalFoundries, which The Wall Street Journal reported last Thursday.\nGlobalFoundries CEOTom Caulfieldappeared to curb expectations that a deal was in the works in an interview with Bloomberg Television late Monday. The Journal reported last Thursday that Global Foundries executives weren’t involved in the talks; the talks were between Intel and the Abu Dhabi government’s Mubadala Investment vehicle that owns GlobalFoundries. A person familiar with how Mubadala operates told Barron’‘s that keeping GlobalFoundries unaware of a potential deal with Intel would be typical of its behavior.\nOverall, the consensus forecast for second-quarter adjusted earnings is $1.07 a share on revenue of $17.8 billion. Intel sold its memory business last year, which the company and investors often exclude from its revenue.\nFor the second quarter, investors will be closely watching Intel’s data center business. At the moment, the consensus forecast for Intel’s second-quarter data-center revenue is a decrease of 17% to $5.9 billion, compared with the year-ago period. Still, it’s expected to rise sequentially, from revenue of $5.6 billion in the first quarter.\nEvercore analyst C.J. Muse wrote in a client note that data-center spending recovery, combined with growth in artificial intelligence and machine learning computing–tasks which are typically performed in data centers–could help boost Intel’s revenue for the segment above his outlook.\nThough there are reports that the pandemic-spurred boom of personal computer sales has started to slow, Susquehanna Financial Group analystChristopher Rollandpredicted that Intel will likely achieve its guidance or perform slightly better based on his checks. At the moment, the consensus estimate for Intel’s PC segment is for second-quarter revenue growth of 4.9% to just under $10 billion.\nRolland also said that his team has uncovered modest supply constraints for PCs built around chips made by Intel rival Advanced Micro Devices (AMD). If that turns out to be true, it would benefit Intel’s second-quarter PC sales, Rolland said. AMD declined to comment, citing its quiet period ahead of earnings.\nOf the analysts who cover Intel, 18 rate shares Buy, 16 have a Hold rating, and 10 rate it Sell. The average target price is $66.79, which implies a return of 21% from a recent price of $55.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"INTC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1887,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160365779,"gmtCreate":1623772985791,"gmtModify":1631886393985,"author":{"id":"3583447705533959","authorId":"3583447705533959","name":"Kmj121","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c59f0eacf93cd197ec1e2105b1796413","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583447705533959","idStr":"3583447705533959"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOS\">$SOS Limited(SOS)$</a>Gg","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOS\">$SOS Limited(SOS)$</a>Gg","text":"$SOS Limited(SOS)$Gg","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160365779","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1892,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":184473919,"gmtCreate":1623723096431,"gmtModify":1631885826791,"author":{"id":"3583447705533959","authorId":"3583447705533959","name":"Kmj121","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c59f0eacf93cd197ec1e2105b1796413","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583447705533959","idStr":"3583447705533959"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BB\">$BlackBerry(BB)$</a>why bb&nbsp;keep sleeping one","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BB\">$BlackBerry(BB)$</a>why bb&nbsp;keep sleeping one","text":"$BlackBerry(BB)$why bb keep sleeping one","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/184473919","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2090,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}