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2021-12-24

[smile]

JD Stock: The Tencent News That Has Chinese Tech JD.com Tumbling Today<blockquote>京东股票：腾讯控股新闻导致中国科技京东今天暴跌</blockquote>

2021-12-23

Ok

Why Paychex Shares Are Making New All-Time Highs Today<blockquote>为什么Paychex股价今天创下历史新高</blockquote>

2021-12-22

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Nvidia: Data Center Will Dominate, But I'll Wait At These Prices<blockquote>英伟达：数据中心将占据主导地位，但我会以这些价格等待</blockquote>

2021-12-21

Ok

Nike shares rose more than 3% in premarket trading<blockquote>耐克股价在盘前交易中上涨超过3%</blockquote>

2021-12-21

Ok

Gilead gained in premarket trading as European Commission approved a variation to the Conditional Marketing Authorization for Veklury.<blockquote>由于欧盟委员会批准了Veklury有条件营销授权的变更，吉利德在盘前交易中上涨。</blockquote>

2021-12-21

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2021-11-05

[微笑]

Nintendo says chip shortage hitting hardware development<blockquote>任天堂称芯片短缺影响硬件开发</blockquote>

2021-10-18

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Toplines Before US Market Open on Monday<blockquote>周一美国市场开盘前的顶线</blockquote>

2021-10-17

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2021-10-16

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2021-10-13

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2021-10-12

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2021-10-11

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2021-10-08

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2021-10-07

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Tactical Update: Fundamental Shifts May Send The Stock Market Even Lower<blockquote>战术更新：基本面变化可能导致股市进一步走低</blockquote>

2021-10-06

[流泪]

Don't worry (too much) about an October market crash<blockquote>不要（过于）担心十月市场崩盘</blockquote>

2021-10-05

[微笑]

Oil jumps above US$81 with Opec+ sticking to output increase<blockquote>Opec+坚持增产，油价升破81美元</blockquote>

2021-10-05

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2021-10-04

[微笑]

Nike, Under Armour and others face supply problems in Vietnam<blockquote>耐克、安德玛等公司在越南面临供应问题</blockquote>

2021-10-03

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11:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"JD Stock: The Tencent News That Has Chinese Tech JD.com Tumbling Today<blockquote>京东股票：腾讯控股新闻导致中国科技京东今天暴跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1162095041","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"JD.com stock is taking a beating on Thursday following news about Tencent giving away its stake in the Chinese e-commerce company.At least, Tencent will give away most of its stake in the company. It announced a special one-time dividend that will have it distributing shares of JD stock to its shareholders. That will have to reduce its ownership of the company’s stock by 457 million. That will drop its stake from 17% to 2.3%.According to Tencent, it’s reducing its stake in JD.com because the com","content":"<p><div> JD.com(NASDAQ:JD) stock is taking a beating on Thursday following news about Tencent(OTCMKTS:TCEHY) giving away its stake in the Chinese e-commerce company. At least, Tencent will give away most of ...</p><p><blockquote><div>在腾讯控股（OTCMKTS：TCEHY）放弃其在这家中国电子商务公司的股份的消息传出后，京东（纳斯达克：JD）的股价周四遭受重创。至少，腾讯控股会放弃大部分...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/jd-stock-the-tencent-news-that-has-chinese-tech-jd-com-tumbling-today/\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/jd-stock-the-tencent-news-that-has-chinese-tech-jd-com-tumbling-today/\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>JD Stock: The Tencent News That Has Chinese Tech JD.com Tumbling Today<blockquote>京东股票：腾讯控股新闻导致中国科技京东今天暴跌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJD Stock: The Tencent News That Has Chinese Tech JD.com Tumbling Today<blockquote>京东股票：腾讯控股新闻导致中国科技京东今天暴跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">InvestorPlace</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-24 11:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> JD.com(NASDAQ:JD) stock is taking a beating on Thursday following news about Tencent(OTCMKTS:TCEHY) giving away its stake in the Chinese e-commerce company. At least, Tencent will give away most of ...</p><p><blockquote><div>在腾讯控股（OTCMKTS：TCEHY）放弃其在这家中国电子商务公司的股份的消息传出后，京东（纳斯达克：JD）的股价周四遭受重创。至少，腾讯控股会放弃大部分...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/jd-stock-the-tencent-news-that-has-chinese-tech-jd-com-tumbling-today/\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/jd-stock-the-tencent-news-that-has-chinese-tech-jd-com-tumbling-today/\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/jd-stock-the-tencent-news-that-has-chinese-tech-jd-com-tumbling-today/\">InvestorPlace</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"00700":"腾讯控股","JD":"京东"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/jd-stock-the-tencent-news-that-has-chinese-tech-jd-com-tumbling-today/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1162095041","content_text":"JD.com(NASDAQ:JD) stock is taking a beating on Thursday following news about Tencent(OTCMKTS:TCEHY) giving away its stake in the Chinese e-commerce company.\nAt least, Tencent will give away most of its stake in the company. It announced a special one-time dividend that will have it distributing shares of JD stock to its shareholders. That will have to reduce its ownership of the company’s stock by 457 million. That will drop its stake from 17% to 2.3%.\nAccording to Tencent, it’s reducing its stake in JD.com because the company is now viable and doesn’t need its support. The Chinese company says that this is simply part of its investment strategy.\nWhile that may be true, there could be other factors at play. Chinese regulators have been cracking down on companies growing too large with fees. It’s possible that Tencent decided to give away the majority of its stake in JD.com to avoid possible action from the government, reports CNBC.\nNo matter the reason, it’s JD stock that is feeling the heat today over Tencent’s move. That includes heavy trading of the shares. As of this writing, more than 18 million shares of the company’s stock have changed hands. That’s already above the company’s daily average trading volume of about 9.5 million shares.\nJD stock is down 6.92% and TCEHY stock is up 5.79% on Thursday. JD stock is down 20.2% since the start of the year and TCEHY stock is down 17.6% year-to-date.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"00700":0.9,"JD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2954,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":691207528,"gmtCreate":1640190215370,"gmtModify":1640190215613,"author":{"id":"3582016577975526","authorId":"3582016577975526","name":"ivanlam","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b69aadeaeb7dadd4cee48a1d48771644","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582016577975526","authorIdStr":"3582016577975526"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/691207528","repostId":"1169752126","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169752126","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1640186708,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1169752126?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-22 23:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Paychex Shares Are Making New All-Time Highs Today<blockquote>为什么Paychex股价今天创下历史新高</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169752126","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Paychex Inc is trading higher Wednesday after the company announced better-than-expected fiscal seco","content":"<p><b>Paychex Inc</b>&nbsp;is trading higher Wednesday after the company announced better-than-expected fiscal second-quarter 2022 financial results.</p><p><blockquote><b>Paychex公司</b>在该公司公布好于预期的2022财年第二季度财务业绩后，周三股价走高。</blockquote></p><p> Paychex reported quarterly adjusted&nbsp;earnings of 91 cents per share, which beat the estimate of 80 cents per share. The company reported quarterly revenue of $1.11 billion, which beat the estimate of $1.06 billion.</p><p><blockquote>Paychex公布的季度调整后每股收益为91美分，超出了每股80美分的预期。该公司公布季度营收为11.1亿美元，超出预期的10.6亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Paychex said it expects fiscal-year 2022 revenue growth of 10% to 11%.</p><p><blockquote>Paychex表示，预计2022财年收入增长10%至11%。</blockquote></p><p> \"We posted strong financial results for the second quarter of fiscal 2022, with growth of 13% in total revenue and 21% in diluted earnings per share. Results were driven by growth in employees within our client base and continued strong sales growth and client retention,\" said&nbsp;<b>Martin Mucci</b>, chairman and CEO of Paychex.</p><p><blockquote>“我们公布了2022财年第二季度强劲的财务业绩，总收入增长13%，稀释后每股收益增长21%。业绩是由我们客户群中员工的增长以及持续强劲的销售增长和客户保留率推动的，”说<b>马丁·穆奇</b>，Paychex董事长兼首席执行官。</blockquote></p><p> Paychex is a leading provider of payroll, human capital management&nbsp;and insurance solutions servicing small and midsize clients primarily in the United States.</p><p><blockquote>Paychex是一家领先的薪资、人力资本管理和保险解决方案提供商，主要为美国的中小型客户提供服务。</blockquote></p><p> <b>PAYX Price Action:</b>Paychex has traded as low as $85.30 over a 52-week period. It's making new 52-week highs during Wednesday's trading session.</p><p><blockquote><b>PAYX价格走势：</b>Paychex在52周内的交易价格低至85.30美元。周三交易时段创下52周新高。</blockquote></p><p> The stock was up 5.54% at $133.44.</p><p><blockquote>该股上涨5.54%，至133.44美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Paychex Shares Are Making New All-Time Highs Today<blockquote>为什么Paychex股价今天创下历史新高</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Paychex Shares Are Making New All-Time Highs Today<blockquote>为什么Paychex股价今天创下历史新高</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-12-22 23:25</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Paychex Inc</b>&nbsp;is trading higher Wednesday after the company announced better-than-expected fiscal second-quarter 2022 financial results.</p><p><blockquote><b>Paychex公司</b>在该公司公布好于预期的2022财年第二季度财务业绩后，周三股价走高。</blockquote></p><p> Paychex reported quarterly adjusted&nbsp;earnings of 91 cents per share, which beat the estimate of 80 cents per share. The company reported quarterly revenue of $1.11 billion, which beat the estimate of $1.06 billion.</p><p><blockquote>Paychex公布的季度调整后每股收益为91美分，超出了每股80美分的预期。该公司公布季度营收为11.1亿美元，超出预期的10.6亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Paychex said it expects fiscal-year 2022 revenue growth of 10% to 11%.</p><p><blockquote>Paychex表示，预计2022财年收入增长10%至11%。</blockquote></p><p> \"We posted strong financial results for the second quarter of fiscal 2022, with growth of 13% in total revenue and 21% in diluted earnings per share. Results were driven by growth in employees within our client base and continued strong sales growth and client retention,\" said&nbsp;<b>Martin Mucci</b>, chairman and CEO of Paychex.</p><p><blockquote>“我们公布了2022财年第二季度强劲的财务业绩，总收入增长13%，稀释后每股收益增长21%。业绩是由我们客户群中员工的增长以及持续强劲的销售增长和客户保留率推动的，”说<b>马丁·穆奇</b>，Paychex董事长兼首席执行官。</blockquote></p><p> Paychex is a leading provider of payroll, human capital management&nbsp;and insurance solutions servicing small and midsize clients primarily in the United States.</p><p><blockquote>Paychex是一家领先的薪资、人力资本管理和保险解决方案提供商，主要为美国的中小型客户提供服务。</blockquote></p><p> <b>PAYX Price Action:</b>Paychex has traded as low as $85.30 over a 52-week period. It's making new 52-week highs during Wednesday's trading session.</p><p><blockquote><b>PAYX价格走势：</b>Paychex在52周内的交易价格低至85.30美元。周三交易时段创下52周新高。</blockquote></p><p> The stock was up 5.54% at $133.44.</p><p><blockquote>该股上涨5.54%，至133.44美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PAYX":"沛齐"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169752126","content_text":"Paychex Inc is trading higher Wednesday after the company announced better-than-expected fiscal second-quarter 2022 financial results.\nPaychex reported quarterly adjusted earnings of 91 cents per share, which beat the estimate of 80 cents per share. The company reported quarterly revenue of $1.11 billion, which beat the estimate of $1.06 billion.\nPaychex said it expects fiscal-year 2022 revenue growth of 10% to 11%.\n\"We posted strong financial results for the second quarter of fiscal 2022, with growth of 13% in total revenue and 21% in diluted earnings per share. Results were driven by growth in employees within our client base and continued strong sales growth and client retention,\" said Martin Mucci, chairman and CEO of Paychex.\nPaychex is a leading provider of payroll, human capital management and insurance solutions servicing small and midsize clients primarily in the United States.\nPAYX Price Action:Paychex has traded as low as $85.30 over a 52-week period. It's making new 52-week highs during Wednesday's trading session.\nThe stock was up 5.54% at $133.44.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PAYX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4184,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":691831090,"gmtCreate":1640161923704,"gmtModify":1640161923994,"author":{"id":"3582016577975526","authorId":"3582016577975526","name":"ivanlam","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b69aadeaeb7dadd4cee48a1d48771644","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582016577975526","authorIdStr":"3582016577975526"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[smile]&nbsp;","listText":"[smile]&nbsp;","text":"[smile]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/691831090","repostId":"1148139257","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148139257","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640156605,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1148139257?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-22 15:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia: Data Center Will Dominate, But I'll Wait At These Prices<blockquote>英伟达：数据中心将占据主导地位，但我会以这些价格等待</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148139257","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nNvidia's business and technology is second to none and the company has proven it can create","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Nvidia's business and technology is second to none and the company has proven it can create and lead multiple markets.</li>  <li>Data Center is set to take the reins in terms of revenue and is what investors should want; this division drives gross margins.</li>  <li>But the stock is pricing in a long runway of growth and won't achieve it in the timeframe needed to justify the valuation.</li>  <li>I'm content holding here but will add at $264 and below.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16229a92c1ab97cde25cb10d9bf33c38\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"864\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Mikhail Konoplev/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>英伟达的业务和技术是首屈一指的，该公司已经证明它可以创造和引领多个市场。</li><li>数据中心将在收入方面占据主导地位，这是投资者应该想要的；该部门提高了毛利率。</li><li>但该股的定价处于漫长的增长轨道上，并且不会在证明估值合理所需的时间范围内实现这一目标。</li><li>我满足于持有这里，但将增加264美元及以下。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>米哈伊尔·科诺普列夫/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It's hard to find a company able to dominate one field in several markets. However, you can surely find companies dominating one field in one market. For example, Netflix (NFLX) dominates the streaming field in movies/shows, but not live sports or video games. Finding a company dominating in one area, such as computing power, while doing so in different markets like gaming, data center, and professional rendering is hard to come by. But, NVIDIA (NVDA) fits the bill quite nicely. Its field of specialized computing power has become unmatched, growing revenue at outsized rates by creating new technology and use cases. This is driving accelerating growth which is being rewarded handsomely in the market as its Data Center division prepares to take the company's reins. But even so, I can't justify paying for it at these lofty valuations.</p><p><blockquote>很难找到一家公司能够在多个市场中主导一个领域。然而，你肯定可以找到在一个市场中主导一个领域的公司。例如，Netflix(NFLX)在电影/节目流媒体领域占据主导地位，但在体育直播或视频游戏领域却不占据主导地位。很难找到一家公司在计算能力等一个领域占据主导地位，同时在游戏、数据中心和专业渲染等不同市场占据主导地位。但是，英伟达(NVDA)非常符合这一要求。其专业计算能力领域已变得无与伦比，通过创造新技术和用例以惊人的速度增长收入。这正在推动加速增长，随着其数据中心部门准备接管公司，这在市场上获得了丰厚的回报。但即便如此，我也无法证明以如此高的估值为其付费是合理的。</blockquote></p><p> Don't get me wrong, I'm not only an avid Nvidia bull - with&nbsp;the record to prove it&nbsp;- but have also done very well investing in it. It has become one of my largest stock returns on a percentage basis in my investing career. And, as I will get to shortly, Nvidia's dominance is not set to wane anytime soon. But, even still, building a position above $300 has a lot more risk embedded in it as growth rates will have to extend higher for longer to match the valuation.</p><p><blockquote>不要误会我的意思，我不仅是一个狂热的英伟达多头——有记录证明了这一点——而且在投资方面也做得很好。它已成为我投资生涯中按百分比计算的最大股票回报之一。而且，正如我很快就会讲到的，英伟达的主导地位不会很快减弱。但是，即便如此，建立300美元以上的头寸也存在更大的风险，因为增长率必须在更长时间内保持较高水平才能与估值相匹配。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Great Business Strength On Two Fronts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>两方面业务实力雄厚</b></blockquote></p><p> Nvidia beating estimates and raising guidance is nothing new over the last several quarters. What is interesting, though, is its ability to continue growing the Gaming division during supply constraint times and seasonally weak quarters. This is apparent in the company's ability to grow Gaming revenue by 5.2% quarter-over-quarter in FQ3. Management expects this strength to continue, though. According to it, Gaming and Data Center will drive sequential growth for FQ4.</p><p><blockquote>过去几个季度，英伟达超出预期并提高指引并不是什么新鲜事。然而，有趣的是，它有能力在供应紧张时期和季节性疲软的季度继续发展游戏部门。这一点在该公司第三季度游戏收入环比增长5.2%的能力中显而易见。不过，管理层预计这种优势将持续下去。据其称，游戏和数据中心将推动第四季度的环比增长。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>We expect sequential growth to be driven by datacenter and gaming more than offsetting a decline in CMP.</i>    Nvidia CFO,FQ3 Earnings Call  The key part is the growth in Data Center is outpacing the growth of Gaming over the last few quarters. As a result, I won't be surprised if Data Center matches or exceeds Gaming revenue for the first time since FQ2 '21 in the current quarter (FQ4 '22). And that's because Data Center growth has picked up over the last two quarters, exceeding Gaming's sequential growth.</p><p><blockquote><i>我们预计数据中心和游戏将推动环比增长，足以抵消CMP的下降。</i>英伟达首席财务官，第三季度收益看涨期权关键部分是过去几个季度数据中心的增长超过了游戏的增长。因此，如果本季度数据中心自21年第二季度（22年第四季度）以来首次达到或超过游戏收入，我不会感到惊讶。这是因为数据中心的增长在过去两个季度有所回升，超过了游戏的环比增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5aa9ae7f41224f726f309ec9ce84a1a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"370\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Chart mine, data from Nvidia's FQ3 '22 Quarterly Revenue Trend)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Chart mine，数据来自英伟达FQ3'22季度收入趋势）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As the quarter-over-quarter lines on the secondary axis show, Data Center has accelerated growth since FQ4 '21, while Gaming growth has slowed since FQ1 '22. The large growth in FQ2 '21 has to do with the Mellanox acquisition, and because the growth I'm outlining starts in FQ4 '21, it becomes independent of Mellanox as the comparisons are Q/Q and not Y/Y. This is especially true after three quarters of nominal sequential growth between FQ3 '21 and FQ1 '22.</p><p><blockquote>正如次轴上的环比线所示，数据中心自21年第4季度以来增长加速，而游戏增长自22年第1季度以来放缓。FQ2'21的大幅增长与Mellanox收购有关，并且由于我概述的增长始于FQ4'21，因此它变得独立于Mellanox，因为比较是季度/季度而不是年/年。在21年第三季度和22年第一季度之间经历了三个季度的名义环比增长之后尤其如此。</blockquote></p><p> Now, I don't expect Data Center to grow sequentially at 24% or more in FQ4 '22, but I do expect it to grow faster than Gaming. Based on what we see from recent earnings from other companies like Broadcom (AVGO) and Marvell (MRVL), data center looks to be very robust heading into the end of the year. As a result, my estimates have 14% Data Center growth and 5% Gaming growth (Q/Q). While this is a deceleration for both divisions, I've left room for Data Center to make up the $35M difference in my calculations between it and Gaming for the crown of the company, should the overall quarter outperform my estimate.</p><p><blockquote>现在，我预计数据中心在22年第四季度的环比增长率不会达到24%或更高，但我确实预计它的增长速度会快于游戏。根据我们从Broadcom(AVGO)和Marvell(MRVL)等其他公司最近的收益中看到的情况，数据中心在今年年底看起来非常强劲。因此，我估计数据中心增长14%，游戏增长5%（环比）。虽然这对两个部门来说都是减速，但如果整个季度的表现超出我的预期，我已经为数据中心留出了空间，以弥补我计算中it和游戏之间3500万美元的差额。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Digging further, notice which division's Q/Q growth aligns with gross margins. And, more precisely, the makeup of Data Center's revenue share between it and Gaming is what is driving gross margin trends (calculated as (DC)/(DC+Gaming)), as shown below. Data Center moving into the number one position is exactly what investors should want as it drives gross margins higher. The Omniverse and Metaverse story aligns perfectly with a more significant Data Center division. And it helps Nvidia has been pushing for Data Center growth over the last several years, well before the Mellanox acquisition was announced in 2019, because the company is ahead of the curve needed in the tech industry to be ready for metaverse demands.</p><p><blockquote>进一步挖掘，请注意哪个部门的季度/季度增长与毛利率一致。更准确地说，数据中心在it和游戏之间的收入份额构成推动了毛利率趋势（计算为（DC）/（DC+游戏）），如下所示。数据中心跃居第一的位置正是投资者应该想要的，因为它会提高毛利率。Omniverse和元宇宙的故事与更重要的数据中心部门完美契合。这有助于英伟达在过去几年中一直在推动数据中心的增长，远在2019年宣布收购Mellanox之前，因为该公司领先于科技行业为元宇宙需求做好准备所需的曲线。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce95b60f491febf2a5cc611f983de1a3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Chart mine, data from Nvidia's Quarterly Press Releases)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Chart mine，数据来自英伟达季度新闻稿）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> These are all great reasons why Nvidia is performing well on the business front and will continue to do so. There is assured strength in both of its main markets and is only seeing increasing, strong demand for GPUs in the data center and PC. As far as Nvidia's business goes, it's one of my favorites and has the greatest potential for creating new use cases and end-market demand through its ever-improving technology.</p><p><blockquote>这些都是英伟达在业务方面表现良好并将继续如此的重要原因。它在两个主要市场都有一定的实力，而且数据中心和PC对GPU的需求也在不断增长。就英伟达的业务而言，它是我最喜欢的业务之一，并且通过其不断改进的技术创造新的用例和终端市场需求的潜力最大。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Where Business Meets Stock</b></p><p><blockquote><b>业务与库存的相遇</b></blockquote></p><p> The points I just discussed are why the stock's valuation has skyrocketed over the last several months - it's pricing in this continued growth and margins of the Data Center. However, when is the valuation too much for the market to handle?</p><p><blockquote>我刚才讨论的要点是为什么该股的估值在过去几个月里飙升——这是对数据中心持续增长和利润率的定价。然而，什么时候估值过高，市场难以承受？</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f9cdd482c064248470e0c01e9b9ab90\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With the price-to-sales ratio near relatively historical highs, the market is saying it expects 50% revenue growth to continue over the next three years. This, therefore, means the market is expecting consensus estimates to rise pretty significantly over the next year or so. As a result, the company would have to hit slightly above the 'High' estimate shown below for 2023 and 2024 to justify the valuation.</p><p><blockquote>由于市销率接近相对历史高位，市场表示预计未来三年收入将继续增长50%。因此，这意味着市场预计共识预期将在未来一年左右大幅上升。因此，该公司必须略高于下面所示的2023年和2024年的“高”预期，才能证明估值合理。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cabb94994fe458be597ed0a3260763f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"133\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Seeking Alpha)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：寻求阿尔法）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This isn't impossible for Nvidia, which has continued to raise the bar over the last two years, but getting to $49.50B in revenue in FY2024 (which is only a February 2023 beginning, as in a little over one year away) is not likely to happen without the ARM (ARMH) acquisition going through. At this point, it's not very likely it does, as there are mounting objections from all the key countries.</p><p><blockquote>对于Nvidia来说，这并非不可能，该公司在过去两年中不断提高标准，但在2024财年（2023年2月才开始，还有一年多一点的时间）收入达到$49.50 B是不可能的。如果没有ARM(ARMH)收购的进行，这种情况就不太可能发生。在这一点上，这种情况不太可能发生，因为来自所有主要国家的反对意见越来越多。</blockquote></p><p> As I've already outlined, Nvidia's business is strong and has quite amazing potential to push technology further than it ever has and to capitalize on it richly. The question I have with the stock at or above a 30 P/S ratio is can it drive the same returns from here as it has up to this point? The company will have to prove it can outperform even more than its track record of raising guidance and then beating guidance by more than $1B (between the guidance raise and subsequent beat of consensus) per quarter to get to the lofty 2024 numbers needed.</p><p><blockquote>正如我已经概述的，英伟达的业务很强大，并且具有相当惊人的潜力，可以比以往任何时候都更深入地推动技术并充分利用它。我对市盈率为30或以上的股票的问题是，它能否从现在开始带来与目前相同的回报？该公司必须证明，它的表现甚至可以超越其提高指引的记录，然后每季度超出指引超过10亿美元（在指引上调和随后超出共识之间），才能达到所需的2024年高数字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Finding A Level To Add At</b></p><p><blockquote><b>查找要添加的级别</b></blockquote></p><p> I originally shared these thoughts&nbsp;with my subscribers on November 24th, when the stock traded for $326 a share. The stock is now trading around $300, lower by 8%, and while this reduces risk, the stock is still riskier than I would prefer to add to my position. With high multiple stocks being targeted for selling over the last few weeks, Nvidia is a prime target for being hit similarly.</p><p><blockquote>我最初是在11月24日与我的订阅者分享这些想法的，当时该股的交易价格为每股326美元。该股目前的交易价格约为300美元，下跌了8%，虽然这降低了风险，但该股的风险仍然高于我愿意加仓的风险。随着过去几周高市盈率股票成为抛售目标，英伟达也是受到类似打击的主要目标。</blockquote></p><p> That being said, where am I comfortable to add?</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，我在哪里可以舒服地添加呢？</blockquote></p><p> A 20 or below blended forward P/S ratio to start would significantly reduce risk while still granting Nvidia a multiple worthy of consistently high growth. This implies a share price of $210. I don't foresee the stock getting there unless the market fears instability for growth or we have a market correction. If you're an absolute risk-averse growth stock investor, there's your target.</p><p><blockquote>一开始的混合远期市盈率为20或以下将显着降低风险，同时仍然为Nvidia提供值得持续高增长的市盈率。这意味着股价为210美元。我预计该股不会达到这一目标，除非市场担心增长不稳定或者我们出现市场调整。如果您是绝对规避风险的成长型股票投资者，那么这就是您的目标。</blockquote></p><p> For those of us a little more risk-tolerant, I would put a P/S ratio of 20 against FY23's revenue estimates, which currently sits at $31.45B. This gives us a $248 target where one can add. Furthermore, adding a slight upside to the consensus estimates to account for steady beat and raises derives a $33.5B revenue estimate (still below the highest estimate for $34.40B) and equates to a share price of $264, a downside of 12% from Wednesday's levels.</p><p><blockquote>对于我们这些风险承受能力稍强的人来说，我会将市盈率定为20，而2023财年的收入预期目前为$31.45 B。这给了我们一个248美元的目标，可以添加。此外，在共识预期的基础上增加小幅上行空间，以考虑到稳定的节拍和加薪，收入预期为$33.5 B（仍低于$34.40 B的最高预期），相当于股价为$264，较周三下跌12%水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>I'll Be Patient</b></p><p><blockquote><b>我会有耐心的</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> This doesn't mean I'm not constructive on the stock - perhaps it continues to move higher and estimates are raised over the next several months, in which case, I'm glad I'm holding. But that's exactly it; I'm holding my current position and looking to opportunistically add on dips if the market allows it. I'm bullish on the company but don't prefer the risk dished out by the current valuation.</p><p><blockquote>这并不意味着我对该股没有建设性——也许它会继续走高，并且在未来几个月内预期会上调，在这种情况下，我很高兴我持有该股。但事实就是如此。我持有目前的头寸，如果市场允许，我希望在逢低买入。我看好该公司，但不喜欢当前估值带来的风险。</blockquote></p><p> I look forward to adding if the opportunity arises, but won't be upset if the stock continues higher.</p><p><blockquote>如果机会出现，我期待着补充，但如果股票继续走高，我不会感到不安。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia: Data Center Will Dominate, But I'll Wait At These Prices<blockquote>英伟达：数据中心将占据主导地位，但我会以这些价格等待</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia: Data Center Will Dominate, But I'll Wait At These Prices<blockquote>英伟达：数据中心将占据主导地位，但我会以这些价格等待</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-22 15:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Nvidia's business and technology is second to none and the company has proven it can create and lead multiple markets.</li>  <li>Data Center is set to take the reins in terms of revenue and is what investors should want; this division drives gross margins.</li>  <li>But the stock is pricing in a long runway of growth and won't achieve it in the timeframe needed to justify the valuation.</li>  <li>I'm content holding here but will add at $264 and below.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16229a92c1ab97cde25cb10d9bf33c38\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"864\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Mikhail Konoplev/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>英伟达的业务和技术是首屈一指的，该公司已经证明它可以创造和引领多个市场。</li><li>数据中心将在收入方面占据主导地位，这是投资者应该想要的；该部门提高了毛利率。</li><li>但该股的定价处于漫长的增长轨道上，并且不会在证明估值合理所需的时间范围内实现这一目标。</li><li>我满足于持有这里，但将增加264美元及以下。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>米哈伊尔·科诺普列夫/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It's hard to find a company able to dominate one field in several markets. However, you can surely find companies dominating one field in one market. For example, Netflix (NFLX) dominates the streaming field in movies/shows, but not live sports or video games. Finding a company dominating in one area, such as computing power, while doing so in different markets like gaming, data center, and professional rendering is hard to come by. But, NVIDIA (NVDA) fits the bill quite nicely. Its field of specialized computing power has become unmatched, growing revenue at outsized rates by creating new technology and use cases. This is driving accelerating growth which is being rewarded handsomely in the market as its Data Center division prepares to take the company's reins. But even so, I can't justify paying for it at these lofty valuations.</p><p><blockquote>很难找到一家公司能够在多个市场中主导一个领域。然而，你肯定可以找到在一个市场中主导一个领域的公司。例如，Netflix(NFLX)在电影/节目流媒体领域占据主导地位，但在体育直播或视频游戏领域却不占据主导地位。很难找到一家公司在计算能力等一个领域占据主导地位，同时在游戏、数据中心和专业渲染等不同市场占据主导地位。但是，英伟达(NVDA)非常符合这一要求。其专业计算能力领域已变得无与伦比，通过创造新技术和用例以惊人的速度增长收入。这正在推动加速增长，随着其数据中心部门准备接管公司，这在市场上获得了丰厚的回报。但即便如此，我也无法证明以如此高的估值为其付费是合理的。</blockquote></p><p> Don't get me wrong, I'm not only an avid Nvidia bull - with&nbsp;the record to prove it&nbsp;- but have also done very well investing in it. It has become one of my largest stock returns on a percentage basis in my investing career. And, as I will get to shortly, Nvidia's dominance is not set to wane anytime soon. But, even still, building a position above $300 has a lot more risk embedded in it as growth rates will have to extend higher for longer to match the valuation.</p><p><blockquote>不要误会我的意思，我不仅是一个狂热的英伟达多头——有记录证明了这一点——而且在投资方面也做得很好。它已成为我投资生涯中按百分比计算的最大股票回报之一。而且，正如我很快就会讲到的，英伟达的主导地位不会很快减弱。但是，即便如此，建立300美元以上的头寸也存在更大的风险，因为增长率必须在更长时间内保持较高水平才能与估值相匹配。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Great Business Strength On Two Fronts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>两方面业务实力雄厚</b></blockquote></p><p> Nvidia beating estimates and raising guidance is nothing new over the last several quarters. What is interesting, though, is its ability to continue growing the Gaming division during supply constraint times and seasonally weak quarters. This is apparent in the company's ability to grow Gaming revenue by 5.2% quarter-over-quarter in FQ3. Management expects this strength to continue, though. According to it, Gaming and Data Center will drive sequential growth for FQ4.</p><p><blockquote>过去几个季度，英伟达超出预期并提高指引并不是什么新鲜事。然而，有趣的是，它有能力在供应紧张时期和季节性疲软的季度继续发展游戏部门。这一点在该公司第三季度游戏收入环比增长5.2%的能力中显而易见。不过，管理层预计这种优势将持续下去。据其称，游戏和数据中心将推动第四季度的环比增长。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>We expect sequential growth to be driven by datacenter and gaming more than offsetting a decline in CMP.</i>    Nvidia CFO,FQ3 Earnings Call  The key part is the growth in Data Center is outpacing the growth of Gaming over the last few quarters. As a result, I won't be surprised if Data Center matches or exceeds Gaming revenue for the first time since FQ2 '21 in the current quarter (FQ4 '22). And that's because Data Center growth has picked up over the last two quarters, exceeding Gaming's sequential growth.</p><p><blockquote><i>我们预计数据中心和游戏将推动环比增长，足以抵消CMP的下降。</i>英伟达首席财务官，第三季度收益看涨期权关键部分是过去几个季度数据中心的增长超过了游戏的增长。因此，如果本季度数据中心自21年第二季度（22年第四季度）以来首次达到或超过游戏收入，我不会感到惊讶。这是因为数据中心的增长在过去两个季度有所回升，超过了游戏的环比增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5aa9ae7f41224f726f309ec9ce84a1a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"370\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Chart mine, data from Nvidia's FQ3 '22 Quarterly Revenue Trend)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Chart mine，数据来自英伟达FQ3'22季度收入趋势）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As the quarter-over-quarter lines on the secondary axis show, Data Center has accelerated growth since FQ4 '21, while Gaming growth has slowed since FQ1 '22. The large growth in FQ2 '21 has to do with the Mellanox acquisition, and because the growth I'm outlining starts in FQ4 '21, it becomes independent of Mellanox as the comparisons are Q/Q and not Y/Y. This is especially true after three quarters of nominal sequential growth between FQ3 '21 and FQ1 '22.</p><p><blockquote>正如次轴上的环比线所示，数据中心自21年第4季度以来增长加速，而游戏增长自22年第1季度以来放缓。FQ2'21的大幅增长与Mellanox收购有关，并且由于我概述的增长始于FQ4'21，因此它变得独立于Mellanox，因为比较是季度/季度而不是年/年。在21年第三季度和22年第一季度之间经历了三个季度的名义环比增长之后尤其如此。</blockquote></p><p> Now, I don't expect Data Center to grow sequentially at 24% or more in FQ4 '22, but I do expect it to grow faster than Gaming. Based on what we see from recent earnings from other companies like Broadcom (AVGO) and Marvell (MRVL), data center looks to be very robust heading into the end of the year. As a result, my estimates have 14% Data Center growth and 5% Gaming growth (Q/Q). While this is a deceleration for both divisions, I've left room for Data Center to make up the $35M difference in my calculations between it and Gaming for the crown of the company, should the overall quarter outperform my estimate.</p><p><blockquote>现在，我预计数据中心在22年第四季度的环比增长率不会达到24%或更高，但我确实预计它的增长速度会快于游戏。根据我们从Broadcom(AVGO)和Marvell(MRVL)等其他公司最近的收益中看到的情况，数据中心在今年年底看起来非常强劲。因此，我估计数据中心增长14%，游戏增长5%（环比）。虽然这对两个部门来说都是减速，但如果整个季度的表现超出我的预期，我已经为数据中心留出了空间，以弥补我计算中it和游戏之间3500万美元的差额。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Digging further, notice which division's Q/Q growth aligns with gross margins. And, more precisely, the makeup of Data Center's revenue share between it and Gaming is what is driving gross margin trends (calculated as (DC)/(DC+Gaming)), as shown below. Data Center moving into the number one position is exactly what investors should want as it drives gross margins higher. The Omniverse and Metaverse story aligns perfectly with a more significant Data Center division. And it helps Nvidia has been pushing for Data Center growth over the last several years, well before the Mellanox acquisition was announced in 2019, because the company is ahead of the curve needed in the tech industry to be ready for metaverse demands.</p><p><blockquote>进一步挖掘，请注意哪个部门的季度/季度增长与毛利率一致。更准确地说，数据中心在it和游戏之间的收入份额构成推动了毛利率趋势（计算为（DC）/（DC+游戏）），如下所示。数据中心跃居第一的位置正是投资者应该想要的，因为它会提高毛利率。Omniverse和元宇宙的故事与更重要的数据中心部门完美契合。这有助于英伟达在过去几年中一直在推动数据中心的增长，远在2019年宣布收购Mellanox之前，因为该公司领先于科技行业为元宇宙需求做好准备所需的曲线。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce95b60f491febf2a5cc611f983de1a3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Chart mine, data from Nvidia's Quarterly Press Releases)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Chart mine，数据来自英伟达季度新闻稿）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> These are all great reasons why Nvidia is performing well on the business front and will continue to do so. There is assured strength in both of its main markets and is only seeing increasing, strong demand for GPUs in the data center and PC. As far as Nvidia's business goes, it's one of my favorites and has the greatest potential for creating new use cases and end-market demand through its ever-improving technology.</p><p><blockquote>这些都是英伟达在业务方面表现良好并将继续如此的重要原因。它在两个主要市场都有一定的实力，而且数据中心和PC对GPU的需求也在不断增长。就英伟达的业务而言，它是我最喜欢的业务之一，并且通过其不断改进的技术创造新的用例和终端市场需求的潜力最大。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Where Business Meets Stock</b></p><p><blockquote><b>业务与库存的相遇</b></blockquote></p><p> The points I just discussed are why the stock's valuation has skyrocketed over the last several months - it's pricing in this continued growth and margins of the Data Center. However, when is the valuation too much for the market to handle?</p><p><blockquote>我刚才讨论的要点是为什么该股的估值在过去几个月里飙升——这是对数据中心持续增长和利润率的定价。然而，什么时候估值过高，市场难以承受？</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f9cdd482c064248470e0c01e9b9ab90\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With the price-to-sales ratio near relatively historical highs, the market is saying it expects 50% revenue growth to continue over the next three years. This, therefore, means the market is expecting consensus estimates to rise pretty significantly over the next year or so. As a result, the company would have to hit slightly above the 'High' estimate shown below for 2023 and 2024 to justify the valuation.</p><p><blockquote>由于市销率接近相对历史高位，市场表示预计未来三年收入将继续增长50%。因此，这意味着市场预计共识预期将在未来一年左右大幅上升。因此，该公司必须略高于下面所示的2023年和2024年的“高”预期，才能证明估值合理。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cabb94994fe458be597ed0a3260763f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"133\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Seeking Alpha)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：寻求阿尔法）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This isn't impossible for Nvidia, which has continued to raise the bar over the last two years, but getting to $49.50B in revenue in FY2024 (which is only a February 2023 beginning, as in a little over one year away) is not likely to happen without the ARM (ARMH) acquisition going through. At this point, it's not very likely it does, as there are mounting objections from all the key countries.</p><p><blockquote>对于Nvidia来说，这并非不可能，该公司在过去两年中不断提高标准，但在2024财年（2023年2月才开始，还有一年多一点的时间）收入达到$49.50 B是不可能的。如果没有ARM(ARMH)收购的进行，这种情况就不太可能发生。在这一点上，这种情况不太可能发生，因为来自所有主要国家的反对意见越来越多。</blockquote></p><p> As I've already outlined, Nvidia's business is strong and has quite amazing potential to push technology further than it ever has and to capitalize on it richly. The question I have with the stock at or above a 30 P/S ratio is can it drive the same returns from here as it has up to this point? The company will have to prove it can outperform even more than its track record of raising guidance and then beating guidance by more than $1B (between the guidance raise and subsequent beat of consensus) per quarter to get to the lofty 2024 numbers needed.</p><p><blockquote>正如我已经概述的，英伟达的业务很强大，并且具有相当惊人的潜力，可以比以往任何时候都更深入地推动技术并充分利用它。我对市盈率为30或以上的股票的问题是，它能否从现在开始带来与目前相同的回报？该公司必须证明，它的表现甚至可以超越其提高指引的记录，然后每季度超出指引超过10亿美元（在指引上调和随后超出共识之间），才能达到所需的2024年高数字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Finding A Level To Add At</b></p><p><blockquote><b>查找要添加的级别</b></blockquote></p><p> I originally shared these thoughts&nbsp;with my subscribers on November 24th, when the stock traded for $326 a share. The stock is now trading around $300, lower by 8%, and while this reduces risk, the stock is still riskier than I would prefer to add to my position. With high multiple stocks being targeted for selling over the last few weeks, Nvidia is a prime target for being hit similarly.</p><p><blockquote>我最初是在11月24日与我的订阅者分享这些想法的，当时该股的交易价格为每股326美元。该股目前的交易价格约为300美元，下跌了8%，虽然这降低了风险，但该股的风险仍然高于我愿意加仓的风险。随着过去几周高市盈率股票成为抛售目标，英伟达也是受到类似打击的主要目标。</blockquote></p><p> That being said, where am I comfortable to add?</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，我在哪里可以舒服地添加呢？</blockquote></p><p> A 20 or below blended forward P/S ratio to start would significantly reduce risk while still granting Nvidia a multiple worthy of consistently high growth. This implies a share price of $210. I don't foresee the stock getting there unless the market fears instability for growth or we have a market correction. If you're an absolute risk-averse growth stock investor, there's your target.</p><p><blockquote>一开始的混合远期市盈率为20或以下将显着降低风险，同时仍然为Nvidia提供值得持续高增长的市盈率。这意味着股价为210美元。我预计该股不会达到这一目标，除非市场担心增长不稳定或者我们出现市场调整。如果您是绝对规避风险的成长型股票投资者，那么这就是您的目标。</blockquote></p><p> For those of us a little more risk-tolerant, I would put a P/S ratio of 20 against FY23's revenue estimates, which currently sits at $31.45B. This gives us a $248 target where one can add. Furthermore, adding a slight upside to the consensus estimates to account for steady beat and raises derives a $33.5B revenue estimate (still below the highest estimate for $34.40B) and equates to a share price of $264, a downside of 12% from Wednesday's levels.</p><p><blockquote>对于我们这些风险承受能力稍强的人来说，我会将市盈率定为20，而2023财年的收入预期目前为$31.45 B。这给了我们一个248美元的目标，可以添加。此外，在共识预期的基础上增加小幅上行空间，以考虑到稳定的节拍和加薪，收入预期为$33.5 B（仍低于$34.40 B的最高预期），相当于股价为$264，较周三下跌12%水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>I'll Be Patient</b></p><p><blockquote><b>我会有耐心的</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> This doesn't mean I'm not constructive on the stock - perhaps it continues to move higher and estimates are raised over the next several months, in which case, I'm glad I'm holding. But that's exactly it; I'm holding my current position and looking to opportunistically add on dips if the market allows it. I'm bullish on the company but don't prefer the risk dished out by the current valuation.</p><p><blockquote>这并不意味着我对该股没有建设性——也许它会继续走高，并且在未来几个月内预期会上调，在这种情况下，我很高兴我持有该股。但事实就是如此。我持有目前的头寸，如果市场允许，我希望在逢低买入。我看好该公司，但不喜欢当前估值带来的风险。</blockquote></p><p> I look forward to adding if the opportunity arises, but won't be upset if the stock continues higher.</p><p><blockquote>如果机会出现，我期待着补充，但如果股票继续走高，我不会感到不安。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4475654-nvidia-data-center-will-dominate-wait-these-prices\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4475654-nvidia-data-center-will-dominate-wait-these-prices","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148139257","content_text":"Summary\n\nNvidia's business and technology is second to none and the company has proven it can create and lead multiple markets.\nData Center is set to take the reins in terms of revenue and is what investors should want; this division drives gross margins.\nBut the stock is pricing in a long runway of growth and won't achieve it in the timeframe needed to justify the valuation.\nI'm content holding here but will add at $264 and below.\n\nMikhail Konoplev/iStock via Getty Images\nIt's hard to find a company able to dominate one field in several markets. However, you can surely find companies dominating one field in one market. For example, Netflix (NFLX) dominates the streaming field in movies/shows, but not live sports or video games. Finding a company dominating in one area, such as computing power, while doing so in different markets like gaming, data center, and professional rendering is hard to come by. But, NVIDIA (NVDA) fits the bill quite nicely. Its field of specialized computing power has become unmatched, growing revenue at outsized rates by creating new technology and use cases. This is driving accelerating growth which is being rewarded handsomely in the market as its Data Center division prepares to take the company's reins. But even so, I can't justify paying for it at these lofty valuations.\nDon't get me wrong, I'm not only an avid Nvidia bull - with the record to prove it - but have also done very well investing in it. It has become one of my largest stock returns on a percentage basis in my investing career. And, as I will get to shortly, Nvidia's dominance is not set to wane anytime soon. But, even still, building a position above $300 has a lot more risk embedded in it as growth rates will have to extend higher for longer to match the valuation.\nGreat Business Strength On Two Fronts\nNvidia beating estimates and raising guidance is nothing new over the last several quarters. What is interesting, though, is its ability to continue growing the Gaming division during supply constraint times and seasonally weak quarters. This is apparent in the company's ability to grow Gaming revenue by 5.2% quarter-over-quarter in FQ3. Management expects this strength to continue, though. According to it, Gaming and Data Center will drive sequential growth for FQ4.\n\nWe expect sequential growth to be driven by datacenter and gaming more than offsetting a decline in CMP.\n\n\n Nvidia CFO,FQ3 Earnings Call\n\nThe key part is the growth in Data Center is outpacing the growth of Gaming over the last few quarters. As a result, I won't be surprised if Data Center matches or exceeds Gaming revenue for the first time since FQ2 '21 in the current quarter (FQ4 '22). And that's because Data Center growth has picked up over the last two quarters, exceeding Gaming's sequential growth.\n(Source: Chart mine, data from Nvidia's FQ3 '22 Quarterly Revenue Trend)\nAs the quarter-over-quarter lines on the secondary axis show, Data Center has accelerated growth since FQ4 '21, while Gaming growth has slowed since FQ1 '22. The large growth in FQ2 '21 has to do with the Mellanox acquisition, and because the growth I'm outlining starts in FQ4 '21, it becomes independent of Mellanox as the comparisons are Q/Q and not Y/Y. This is especially true after three quarters of nominal sequential growth between FQ3 '21 and FQ1 '22.\nNow, I don't expect Data Center to grow sequentially at 24% or more in FQ4 '22, but I do expect it to grow faster than Gaming. Based on what we see from recent earnings from other companies like Broadcom (AVGO) and Marvell (MRVL), data center looks to be very robust heading into the end of the year. As a result, my estimates have 14% Data Center growth and 5% Gaming growth (Q/Q). While this is a deceleration for both divisions, I've left room for Data Center to make up the $35M difference in my calculations between it and Gaming for the crown of the company, should the overall quarter outperform my estimate.\nDigging further, notice which division's Q/Q growth aligns with gross margins. And, more precisely, the makeup of Data Center's revenue share between it and Gaming is what is driving gross margin trends (calculated as (DC)/(DC+Gaming)), as shown below. Data Center moving into the number one position is exactly what investors should want as it drives gross margins higher. The Omniverse and Metaverse story aligns perfectly with a more significant Data Center division. And it helps Nvidia has been pushing for Data Center growth over the last several years, well before the Mellanox acquisition was announced in 2019, because the company is ahead of the curve needed in the tech industry to be ready for metaverse demands.\n(Source: Chart mine, data from Nvidia's Quarterly Press Releases)\nThese are all great reasons why Nvidia is performing well on the business front and will continue to do so. There is assured strength in both of its main markets and is only seeing increasing, strong demand for GPUs in the data center and PC. As far as Nvidia's business goes, it's one of my favorites and has the greatest potential for creating new use cases and end-market demand through its ever-improving technology.\nWhere Business Meets Stock\nThe points I just discussed are why the stock's valuation has skyrocketed over the last several months - it's pricing in this continued growth and margins of the Data Center. However, when is the valuation too much for the market to handle?\nData by YCharts\nWith the price-to-sales ratio near relatively historical highs, the market is saying it expects 50% revenue growth to continue over the next three years. This, therefore, means the market is expecting consensus estimates to rise pretty significantly over the next year or so. As a result, the company would have to hit slightly above the 'High' estimate shown below for 2023 and 2024 to justify the valuation.\n(Source: Seeking Alpha)\nThis isn't impossible for Nvidia, which has continued to raise the bar over the last two years, but getting to $49.50B in revenue in FY2024 (which is only a February 2023 beginning, as in a little over one year away) is not likely to happen without the ARM (ARMH) acquisition going through. At this point, it's not very likely it does, as there are mounting objections from all the key countries.\nAs I've already outlined, Nvidia's business is strong and has quite amazing potential to push technology further than it ever has and to capitalize on it richly. The question I have with the stock at or above a 30 P/S ratio is can it drive the same returns from here as it has up to this point? The company will have to prove it can outperform even more than its track record of raising guidance and then beating guidance by more than $1B (between the guidance raise and subsequent beat of consensus) per quarter to get to the lofty 2024 numbers needed.\nFinding A Level To Add At\nI originally shared these thoughts with my subscribers on November 24th, when the stock traded for $326 a share. The stock is now trading around $300, lower by 8%, and while this reduces risk, the stock is still riskier than I would prefer to add to my position. With high multiple stocks being targeted for selling over the last few weeks, Nvidia is a prime target for being hit similarly.\nThat being said, where am I comfortable to add?\nA 20 or below blended forward P/S ratio to start would significantly reduce risk while still granting Nvidia a multiple worthy of consistently high growth. This implies a share price of $210. I don't foresee the stock getting there unless the market fears instability for growth or we have a market correction. If you're an absolute risk-averse growth stock investor, there's your target.\nFor those of us a little more risk-tolerant, I would put a P/S ratio of 20 against FY23's revenue estimates, which currently sits at $31.45B. This gives us a $248 target where one can add. Furthermore, adding a slight upside to the consensus estimates to account for steady beat and raises derives a $33.5B revenue estimate (still below the highest estimate for $34.40B) and equates to a share price of $264, a downside of 12% from Wednesday's levels.\nI'll Be Patient\nThis doesn't mean I'm not constructive on the stock - perhaps it continues to move higher and estimates are raised over the next several months, in which case, I'm glad I'm holding. But that's exactly it; I'm holding my current position and looking to opportunistically add on dips if the market allows it. I'm bullish on the company but don't prefer the risk dished out by the current valuation.\nI look forward to adding if the opportunity arises, but won't be upset if the stock continues higher.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2659,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":693717681,"gmtCreate":1640079476042,"gmtModify":1640079476291,"author":{"id":"3582016577975526","authorId":"3582016577975526","name":"ivanlam","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b69aadeaeb7dadd4cee48a1d48771644","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582016577975526","authorIdStr":"3582016577975526"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/693717681","repostId":"1194627020","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1194627020","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1640077282,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1194627020?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-21 17:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nike shares rose more than 3% in premarket trading<blockquote>耐克股价在盘前交易中上涨超过3%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1194627020","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Nike shares rose more than 3% in premarket trading.\nThe company reported fiscal second-quarter earni","content":"<p>Nike&nbsp;shares&nbsp;rose&nbsp;more&nbsp;than&nbsp;3%&nbsp;in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6ffc773c42f2aacf793dd422e5bf4f7\" tg-width=\"714\" tg-height=\"605\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote>耐克股价在盘前交易中上涨超过3%。</blockquote></p><p> The company reported fiscal second-quarter earnings of $1.34 billion, or 83 cents a share, up from 78 cents a share a year ago. That beats the 63 cents EPS analysts were expecting.</p><p><blockquote>该公司公布第二财季收益为13.4亿美元，即每股收益83美分，高于一年前的每股78美分。这超出了分析师预期的63美分每股收益。</blockquote></p><p> Revenue rose to $11.36 billion from $11.24 billion in the year-ago quarter compared with the $11.25 billion expected. Revenue in North America,Nike‘s (ticker: NKE) biggest market, climbed 12%, representing the highest growth of all geographies.</p><p><blockquote>营收从去年同期的112.4亿美元增至113.6亿美元，预期为112.5亿美元。耐克（股票代码：NKE）最大市场北美的收入增长了12%，是所有地区中增长最高的。</blockquote></p><p> Greater consumer demand, especially for online merchandise, helped boost results, the company said in an earnings call Monday evening. Nike digital grew 11% in the quarter and now accounts for 25% of its total revenue globally.</p><p><blockquote>该公司在周一晚间的财报看涨期权上表示，消费者需求的增加，尤其是对在线商品的需求，有助于提振业绩。Nike digital本季度增长11%，目前占其全球总收入的25%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nike shares rose more than 3% in premarket trading<blockquote>耐克股价在盘前交易中上涨超过3%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNike shares rose more than 3% in premarket trading<blockquote>耐克股价在盘前交易中上涨超过3%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-12-21 17:01</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Nike&nbsp;shares&nbsp;rose&nbsp;more&nbsp;than&nbsp;3%&nbsp;in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6ffc773c42f2aacf793dd422e5bf4f7\" tg-width=\"714\" tg-height=\"605\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote>耐克股价在盘前交易中上涨超过3%。</blockquote></p><p> The company reported fiscal second-quarter earnings of $1.34 billion, or 83 cents a share, up from 78 cents a share a year ago. That beats the 63 cents EPS analysts were expecting.</p><p><blockquote>该公司公布第二财季收益为13.4亿美元，即每股收益83美分，高于一年前的每股78美分。这超出了分析师预期的63美分每股收益。</blockquote></p><p> Revenue rose to $11.36 billion from $11.24 billion in the year-ago quarter compared with the $11.25 billion expected. Revenue in North America,Nike‘s (ticker: NKE) biggest market, climbed 12%, representing the highest growth of all geographies.</p><p><blockquote>营收从去年同期的112.4亿美元增至113.6亿美元，预期为112.5亿美元。耐克（股票代码：NKE）最大市场北美的收入增长了12%，是所有地区中增长最高的。</blockquote></p><p> Greater consumer demand, especially for online merchandise, helped boost results, the company said in an earnings call Monday evening. Nike digital grew 11% in the quarter and now accounts for 25% of its total revenue globally.</p><p><blockquote>该公司在周一晚间的财报看涨期权上表示，消费者需求的增加，尤其是对在线商品的需求，有助于提振业绩。Nike digital本季度增长11%，目前占其全球总收入的25%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NKE":"耐克"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1194627020","content_text":"Nike shares rose more than 3% in premarket trading.\nThe company reported fiscal second-quarter earnings of $1.34 billion, or 83 cents a share, up from 78 cents a share a year ago. That beats the 63 cents EPS analysts were expecting.\nRevenue rose to $11.36 billion from $11.24 billion in the year-ago quarter compared with the $11.25 billion expected. Revenue in North America,Nike‘s (ticker: NKE) biggest market, climbed 12%, representing the highest growth of all geographies.\nGreater consumer demand, especially for online merchandise, helped boost results, the company said in an earnings call Monday evening. Nike digital grew 11% in the quarter and now accounts for 25% of its total revenue globally.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NKE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2820,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":693717108,"gmtCreate":1640079464900,"gmtModify":1640079465106,"author":{"id":"3582016577975526","authorId":"3582016577975526","name":"ivanlam","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b69aadeaeb7dadd4cee48a1d48771644","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582016577975526","authorIdStr":"3582016577975526"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/693717108","repostId":"1149530831","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1149530831","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1640078220,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1149530831?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-21 17:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Gilead gained in premarket trading as European Commission approved a variation to the Conditional Marketing Authorization for Veklury.<blockquote>由于欧盟委员会批准了Veklury有条件营销授权的变更，吉利德在盘前交易中上涨。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149530831","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Gilead gained in premarket trading as European Commission approved a variation to the Conditional Ma","content":"<p>Gilead&nbsp;gained&nbsp;in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading&nbsp;as&nbsp;European Commission&nbsp;approved a variation to the Conditional Marketing Authorization for Veklury.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d011c5296c3de91e509be97faad6190\" tg-width=\"709\" tg-height=\"598\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Gilead Sciences, Inc. today announced that the European Commission (EC) has approved a variation to the Conditional Marketing Authorization for Veklury® (remdesivir) to include adults who do not require supplemental oxygen and are at an increased risk of progressing to severe COVID-19. This decision follows the positive recommendation of the Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use (CHMP), the scientific committee of the European Medicines Agency (EMA), to expand the indication for Veklury on December 16.</p><p><blockquote>由于欧盟委员会批准了Veklury有条件营销授权的变更，吉利德在盘前交易中上涨。吉利德科学公司今天宣布，欧盟委员会(EC)已批准Veklury的有条件营销授权变更®（瑞德西韦）纳入不需要补充氧气且进展为严重新冠肺炎风险增加的成年人。这一决定是在欧洲药品管理局（EMA）科学委员会人用药品委员会（CHMP）于12月16日积极建议扩大Veklury的适应症之后做出的。</blockquote></p><p> \"As the rates of COVID-19 climb again and new variants like Omicron emerge, we need effective tools like Veklury to treat various stages of the disease,\" said Roger Paredes, MD, PhD, Chief Infectious Diseases Department, and IrsiCaixa AIDS Research Institute Hospital Universitari Germans Trias I Pujol Badalona, Spain. \"We can now use Veklury to help prevent high-risk patients from progressing to more severe disease, even when they do not require oxygen, as well as continue to utilize Veklury as a key tool in the treatment of severe disease. This latest approval will also help to relieve some of the pressure on healthcare systems that are already under significant strain from the burden of COVID-19.\"</p><p><blockquote>“随着COVID-19发病率再次攀升以及奥密克戎病毒等新变种的出现，我们需要像Veklury这样的有效工具来治疗该疾病的各个阶段，”传染病科主任Roger Paredes医学博士和IrsiCaixa艾滋病研究所表示。“我们现在可以使用Veklury来帮助防止高危患者进展为更严重的疾病，即使他们不需要氧气，以及继续利用Veklury作为治疗严重疾病的关键工具。这一最新批准也将有助于缓解已经因COVID-19负担而承受巨大压力的医疗保健系统的一些压力。”</blockquote></p><p> The EC’s decision is supported by results from a Phase 3 randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial to evaluate the efficacy and safety of a three-day course of Veklury for intravenous (IV) use for the treatment of COVID-19 in non-hospitalized patients at high risk for disease progression. In an analysis of 562 participants randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio to receive Veklury or placebo, Veklury demonstrated a statistically significant 87% reduction in risk for the composite primary endpoint of COVID-19 related hospitalization or all-cause death by Day 28 (0.7% [2/279]) compared with placebo (5.3% [15/283]) p=0.008. In the study, no deaths were observed in either arm by Day 28. The safety profile was similar between Veklury and placebo across the variety of outpatient settings in this trial, with the most common treatment emergent adverse events (≥5%) in patients taking Veklury being nausea and headache. These data have also been shared with other regulatory agencies around the world and submitted for scientific peer-reviewed publication.</p><p><blockquote>EC的决定得到了一项3期随机、双盲、安慰剂对照试验结果的支持，该试验旨在评估静脉（IV）使用Veklury三天疗程治疗疾病进展高风险的非住院患者COVID-19的疗效和安全性。在一项对以1：1比例随机分配接受Veklury或安慰剂的562名参与者的分析中，与安慰剂（5.3%【15/283】）相比，Veklury在第28天新冠肺炎相关住院或全因死亡的复合主要终点风险降低了87%（0.7%【2/279】），具有统计学意义p=0.008。在研究中，到第28天，两组均未观察到死亡。在本试验中，Veklury和安慰剂在各种门诊环境中的安全性特征相似，服用Veklury的患者中最常见的治疗后出现的不良事件（≥5%）是恶心和头痛。这些数据还与世界各地的其他监管机构共享，并提交给科学同行评审出版物。</blockquote></p><p> This expanded indication in the EU adds to the previous Conditional Marketing Authorization of Veklury enabling the treatment of COVID-19 in adults and adolescents (aged 12 to less than 18 years and weighing at least 40 kg) with pneumonia requiring supplemental oxygen (low- or high-flow oxygen or other non-invasive ventilation at start of treatment).</p><p><blockquote>欧盟的这一扩大适应症增加了Veklury之前的有条件上市许可，使其能够治疗需要补充氧气（治疗开始时的低流量或高流量氧气或其他无创通气）的肺炎成人和青少年（12岁至18岁以下，体重至少40 kg）的COVID-19。</blockquote></p><p> \"The swift action of the European Commission is a testament to the need for effective treatments that can be used earlier in the course of disease to help people with COVID-19 across Europe,\" said Merdad Parsey, M.D., Ph.D., Chief Medical Officer, Gilead Sciences. \"As we learn more about how COVID-19 disease progresses, it is clear that an antiviral like Veklury can have a significant impact if used early in the course of disease. As the antiviral standard of care for patients hospitalized with COVID-19, we are proud of the role Veklury continues to play on the front lines of the pandemic, and we believe Veklury will now be able to help more patients decrease their time to recovery from COVID-19 in Europe.\"</p><p><blockquote>吉利德科学首席医疗官、医学博士Merdad Parsey说：“欧盟委员会的迅速行动证明了需要有效的治疗方法，这些方法可以在疾病过程的早期使用，以帮助欧洲各地的COVID-19患者。”“随着我们对COVID-19疾病如何进展的了解越来越多，很明显，如果在病程早期使用，像Veklury这样的抗病毒药物可以产生重大影响。作为COVID-19住院患者的抗病毒护理标准，我们对Veklury在大流行前线继续发挥的作用感到自豪，我们相信Veklury现在将能够帮助欧洲更多患者缩短从COVID-19中康复的时间。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Gilead gained in premarket trading as European Commission approved a variation to the Conditional Marketing Authorization for Veklury.<blockquote>由于欧盟委员会批准了Veklury有条件营销授权的变更，吉利德在盘前交易中上涨。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGilead gained in premarket trading as European Commission approved a variation to the Conditional Marketing Authorization for Veklury.<blockquote>由于欧盟委员会批准了Veklury有条件营销授权的变更，吉利德在盘前交易中上涨。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-12-21 17:17</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Gilead&nbsp;gained&nbsp;in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading&nbsp;as&nbsp;European Commission&nbsp;approved a variation to the Conditional Marketing Authorization for Veklury.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d011c5296c3de91e509be97faad6190\" tg-width=\"709\" tg-height=\"598\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Gilead Sciences, Inc. today announced that the European Commission (EC) has approved a variation to the Conditional Marketing Authorization for Veklury® (remdesivir) to include adults who do not require supplemental oxygen and are at an increased risk of progressing to severe COVID-19. This decision follows the positive recommendation of the Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use (CHMP), the scientific committee of the European Medicines Agency (EMA), to expand the indication for Veklury on December 16.</p><p><blockquote>由于欧盟委员会批准了Veklury有条件营销授权的变更，吉利德在盘前交易中上涨。吉利德科学公司今天宣布，欧盟委员会(EC)已批准Veklury的有条件营销授权变更®（瑞德西韦）纳入不需要补充氧气且进展为严重新冠肺炎风险增加的成年人。这一决定是在欧洲药品管理局（EMA）科学委员会人用药品委员会（CHMP）于12月16日积极建议扩大Veklury的适应症之后做出的。</blockquote></p><p> \"As the rates of COVID-19 climb again and new variants like Omicron emerge, we need effective tools like Veklury to treat various stages of the disease,\" said Roger Paredes, MD, PhD, Chief Infectious Diseases Department, and IrsiCaixa AIDS Research Institute Hospital Universitari Germans Trias I Pujol Badalona, Spain. \"We can now use Veklury to help prevent high-risk patients from progressing to more severe disease, even when they do not require oxygen, as well as continue to utilize Veklury as a key tool in the treatment of severe disease. This latest approval will also help to relieve some of the pressure on healthcare systems that are already under significant strain from the burden of COVID-19.\"</p><p><blockquote>“随着COVID-19发病率再次攀升以及奥密克戎病毒等新变种的出现，我们需要像Veklury这样的有效工具来治疗该疾病的各个阶段，”传染病科主任Roger Paredes医学博士和IrsiCaixa艾滋病研究所表示。“我们现在可以使用Veklury来帮助防止高危患者进展为更严重的疾病，即使他们不需要氧气，以及继续利用Veklury作为治疗严重疾病的关键工具。这一最新批准也将有助于缓解已经因COVID-19负担而承受巨大压力的医疗保健系统的一些压力。”</blockquote></p><p> The EC’s decision is supported by results from a Phase 3 randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial to evaluate the efficacy and safety of a three-day course of Veklury for intravenous (IV) use for the treatment of COVID-19 in non-hospitalized patients at high risk for disease progression. In an analysis of 562 participants randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio to receive Veklury or placebo, Veklury demonstrated a statistically significant 87% reduction in risk for the composite primary endpoint of COVID-19 related hospitalization or all-cause death by Day 28 (0.7% [2/279]) compared with placebo (5.3% [15/283]) p=0.008. In the study, no deaths were observed in either arm by Day 28. The safety profile was similar between Veklury and placebo across the variety of outpatient settings in this trial, with the most common treatment emergent adverse events (≥5%) in patients taking Veklury being nausea and headache. These data have also been shared with other regulatory agencies around the world and submitted for scientific peer-reviewed publication.</p><p><blockquote>EC的决定得到了一项3期随机、双盲、安慰剂对照试验结果的支持，该试验旨在评估静脉（IV）使用Veklury三天疗程治疗疾病进展高风险的非住院患者COVID-19的疗效和安全性。在一项对以1：1比例随机分配接受Veklury或安慰剂的562名参与者的分析中，与安慰剂（5.3%【15/283】）相比，Veklury在第28天新冠肺炎相关住院或全因死亡的复合主要终点风险降低了87%（0.7%【2/279】），具有统计学意义p=0.008。在研究中，到第28天，两组均未观察到死亡。在本试验中，Veklury和安慰剂在各种门诊环境中的安全性特征相似，服用Veklury的患者中最常见的治疗后出现的不良事件（≥5%）是恶心和头痛。这些数据还与世界各地的其他监管机构共享，并提交给科学同行评审出版物。</blockquote></p><p> This expanded indication in the EU adds to the previous Conditional Marketing Authorization of Veklury enabling the treatment of COVID-19 in adults and adolescents (aged 12 to less than 18 years and weighing at least 40 kg) with pneumonia requiring supplemental oxygen (low- or high-flow oxygen or other non-invasive ventilation at start of treatment).</p><p><blockquote>欧盟的这一扩大适应症增加了Veklury之前的有条件上市许可，使其能够治疗需要补充氧气（治疗开始时的低流量或高流量氧气或其他无创通气）的肺炎成人和青少年（12岁至18岁以下，体重至少40 kg）的COVID-19。</blockquote></p><p> \"The swift action of the European Commission is a testament to the need for effective treatments that can be used earlier in the course of disease to help people with COVID-19 across Europe,\" said Merdad Parsey, M.D., Ph.D., Chief Medical Officer, Gilead Sciences. \"As we learn more about how COVID-19 disease progresses, it is clear that an antiviral like Veklury can have a significant impact if used early in the course of disease. As the antiviral standard of care for patients hospitalized with COVID-19, we are proud of the role Veklury continues to play on the front lines of the pandemic, and we believe Veklury will now be able to help more patients decrease their time to recovery from COVID-19 in Europe.\"</p><p><blockquote>吉利德科学首席医疗官、医学博士Merdad Parsey说：“欧盟委员会的迅速行动证明了需要有效的治疗方法，这些方法可以在疾病过程的早期使用，以帮助欧洲各地的COVID-19患者。”“随着我们对COVID-19疾病如何进展的了解越来越多，很明显，如果在病程早期使用，像Veklury这样的抗病毒药物可以产生重大影响。作为COVID-19住院患者的抗病毒护理标准，我们对Veklury在大流行前线继续发挥的作用感到自豪，我们相信Veklury现在将能够帮助欧洲更多患者缩短从COVID-19中康复的时间。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GILD":"吉利德科学"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1149530831","content_text":"Gilead gained in premarket trading as European Commission approved a variation to the Conditional Marketing Authorization for Veklury.Gilead Sciences, Inc. today announced that the European Commission (EC) has approved a variation to the Conditional Marketing Authorization for Veklury® (remdesivir) to include adults who do not require supplemental oxygen and are at an increased risk of progressing to severe COVID-19. This decision follows the positive recommendation of the Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use (CHMP), the scientific committee of the European Medicines Agency (EMA), to expand the indication for Veklury on December 16.\n\"As the rates of COVID-19 climb again and new variants like Omicron emerge, we need effective tools like Veklury to treat various stages of the disease,\" said Roger Paredes, MD, PhD, Chief Infectious Diseases Department, and IrsiCaixa AIDS Research Institute Hospital Universitari Germans Trias I Pujol Badalona, Spain. \"We can now use Veklury to help prevent high-risk patients from progressing to more severe disease, even when they do not require oxygen, as well as continue to utilize Veklury as a key tool in the treatment of severe disease. This latest approval will also help to relieve some of the pressure on healthcare systems that are already under significant strain from the burden of COVID-19.\"\nThe EC’s decision is supported by results from a Phase 3 randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial to evaluate the efficacy and safety of a three-day course of Veklury for intravenous (IV) use for the treatment of COVID-19 in non-hospitalized patients at high risk for disease progression. In an analysis of 562 participants randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio to receive Veklury or placebo, Veklury demonstrated a statistically significant 87% reduction in risk for the composite primary endpoint of COVID-19 related hospitalization or all-cause death by Day 28 (0.7% [2/279]) compared with placebo (5.3% [15/283]) p=0.008. In the study, no deaths were observed in either arm by Day 28. The safety profile was similar between Veklury and placebo across the variety of outpatient settings in this trial, with the most common treatment emergent adverse events (≥5%) in patients taking Veklury being nausea and headache. These data have also been shared with other regulatory agencies around the world and submitted for scientific peer-reviewed publication.\nThis expanded indication in the EU adds to the previous Conditional Marketing Authorization of Veklury enabling the treatment of COVID-19 in adults and adolescents (aged 12 to less than 18 years and weighing at least 40 kg) with pneumonia requiring supplemental oxygen (low- or high-flow oxygen or other non-invasive ventilation at start of treatment).\n\"The swift action of the European Commission is a testament to the need for effective treatments that can be used earlier in the course of disease to help people with COVID-19 across Europe,\" said Merdad Parsey, M.D., Ph.D., Chief Medical Officer, Gilead Sciences. \"As we learn more about how COVID-19 disease progresses, it is clear that an antiviral like Veklury can have a significant impact if used early in the course of disease. As the antiviral standard of care for patients hospitalized with COVID-19, we are proud of the role Veklury continues to play on the front lines of the pandemic, and we believe Veklury will now be able to help more patients decrease their time to recovery from COVID-19 in Europe.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GILD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3202,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":693526059,"gmtCreate":1640051559033,"gmtModify":1640051559252,"author":{"id":"3582016577975526","authorId":"3582016577975526","name":"ivanlam","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b69aadeaeb7dadd4cee48a1d48771644","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582016577975526","authorIdStr":"3582016577975526"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[smile]&nbsp;","listText":"[smile]&nbsp;","text":"[smile]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/693526059","repostId":"2193341971","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3158,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":846263687,"gmtCreate":1636087006375,"gmtModify":1636087006487,"author":{"id":"3582016577975526","authorId":"3582016577975526","name":"ivanlam","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b69aadeaeb7dadd4cee48a1d48771644","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582016577975526","authorIdStr":"3582016577975526"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/846263687","repostId":"1188626454","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1188626454","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1636084565,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1188626454?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-05 11:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nintendo says chip shortage hitting hardware development<blockquote>任天堂称芯片短缺影响硬件开发</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188626454","media":"Reuters","summary":"Japan's Nintendo Co Ltd said on Friday that a global chip shortage which forced the firm to scale ba","content":"<p>Japan's Nintendo Co Ltd&nbsp;said on Friday that a global chip shortage which forced the firm to scale back expectations for sales of its hit Switch device is also hitting hardware development.</p><p><blockquote>日本任天堂有限公司周五表示，全球芯片短缺迫使该公司降低了对其热门Switch设备的销售预期，这也影响了硬件开发。</blockquote></p><p> \"The semiconductor situation is having some effect on hardware development,\" Nintendo executive Ko Shiota, who heads the development team, told an analyst briefing.</p><p><blockquote>“半导体形势对硬件开发产生了一些影响，”开发团队负责人、任天堂高管盐田幸在分析师简报会上表示。</blockquote></p><p> \"We are looking at substituting components and tweaking designs to try and reduce the impact,\" he added.</p><p><blockquote>“我们正在考虑更换组件并调整设计，以尝试减少影响，”他补充道。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nintendo says chip shortage hitting hardware development<blockquote>任天堂称芯片短缺影响硬件开发</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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}\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNintendo says chip shortage hitting hardware development<blockquote>任天堂称芯片短缺影响硬件开发</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-05 11:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Japan's Nintendo Co Ltd&nbsp;said on Friday that a global chip shortage which forced the firm to scale back expectations for sales of its hit Switch device is also hitting hardware development.</p><p><blockquote>日本任天堂有限公司周五表示，全球芯片短缺迫使该公司降低了对其热门Switch设备的销售预期，这也影响了硬件开发。</blockquote></p><p> \"The semiconductor situation is having some effect on hardware development,\" Nintendo executive Ko Shiota, who heads the development team, told an analyst briefing.</p><p><blockquote>“半导体形势对硬件开发产生了一些影响，”开发团队负责人、任天堂高管盐田幸在分析师简报会上表示。</blockquote></p><p> \"We are looking at substituting components and tweaking designs to try and reduce the impact,\" he added.</p><p><blockquote>“我们正在考虑更换组件并调整设计，以尝试减少影响，”他补充道。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/technology/nintendo-says-chip-shortage-hitting-hardware-development-2021-11-05/\">Reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NTDOY":"任天堂"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/technology/nintendo-says-chip-shortage-hitting-hardware-development-2021-11-05/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188626454","content_text":"Japan's Nintendo Co Ltd said on Friday that a global chip shortage which forced the firm to scale back expectations for sales of its hit Switch device is also hitting hardware development.\n\"The semiconductor situation is having some effect on hardware development,\" Nintendo executive Ko Shiota, who heads the development team, told an analyst briefing.\n\"We are looking at substituting components and tweaking designs to try and reduce the impact,\" he added.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NTDOY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2606,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":850378681,"gmtCreate":1634561236247,"gmtModify":1634561337967,"author":{"id":"3582016577975526","authorId":"3582016577975526","name":"ivanlam","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b69aadeaeb7dadd4cee48a1d48771644","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582016577975526","authorIdStr":"3582016577975526"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":16,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/850378681","repostId":"1189411842","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1189411842","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1634557980,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1189411842?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-18 19:53","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Toplines Before US Market Open on Monday<blockquote>周一美国市场开盘前的顶线</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1189411842","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(Oct 18) Stock futures fell Monday morning to give back some gains after theS&P 500's best week sinc","content":"<p>(Oct&nbsp;18)&nbsp;Stock futures fell Monday morning to give back some gains after theS&amp;P 500's best week since July, with investors' concerns over elevated inflation offsetting hopes that more companies will follow the lead of the big banks last week and post strong quarterly earnings results.</p><p><blockquote>（10月18日）周一上午，在标准普尔500指数创下7月以来最好的一周后，股指期货下跌，回吐部分涨幅，投资者对通胀上升的担忧抵消了更多公司将效仿上周大银行并公布强劲季度收益的希望结果。</blockquote></p><p> At 07:55 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were down 114 points, or 0.32%, S&amp;P 500 e-minis were down 13 points, or 0.29%, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">Nasdaq</a> 100 e-minis were down 29.5 points, or 0.19%.</p><p><blockquote>截至美国东部时间上午07:55，道琼斯电子迷你指数下跌114点，跌幅0.32%，标普500电子迷你指数下跌13点，跌幅0.29%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">纳斯达克</a>100辆e-mini下跌29.5点，跌幅0.19%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b70366d9fa5fd9b7e99f325a5de0e9d\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"509\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Stocks making the biggest moves in the premarket:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盘前涨幅最大的股票：</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a> shares erased earlier losses and climbed as much as 4.3% in Hong Kong, as <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">China</a> debates rules to make hundreds of millions of articles on Tencent’s WeChat messaging app available via search engines like Baidu’s.</li>  <li>Crypto-related stocks in action as Bitcoin leaps as much as 5.3% and is just shy of a fresh six-month high. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIOT\">Riot Blockchain, Inc.</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MARA\">Marathon Digital Holdings Inc</a> and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">Coinbase Global, Inc.</a>&nbsp;are all up.</li>  <li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla Motors</a> shares rise 0.2% in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading Monday, poised for 50% rally from a March 8 low, ahead of its third-quarter results on Wednesday.</li>  <li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DVAX\">Dynavax</a> shares rise as much as 10% in U.S. pre-trading hours after the biopharmaceutical company announced that Valneva reported the trial of inactivated, adjuvanted Covid-19 vaccine candidate VLA2001 met its co-primary endpoints</li>  <li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIS\">Walt Disney</a> drops in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading after Barclays downgrades to equal-weight as the company faces a “tough” task to get to its long-term streaming subscription guidance.</li>  <li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTAP\">NetApp</a> slips 2.2% in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading after <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a> analyst Rod Hall cut the recommendation on NetApp Inc. to sell from neutral.</li> </ul> <b>In FX, </b>the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index advanced as the dollar traded higher versus all of its Group-of-10 peers Traders pulled forward rate- hike bets after BoE governor Bailey said the central bank “will have to act” on inflation. U.K. money markets now see 36 basis points of BoE rate increases in December and are pricing 15 basis points of tightening next month. Traders are also now betting the BoE’s key rate will rise to 1% by August, from 0.1% currently. The euro struggled to recover after falling below the $1.16 handle in the Asian session; money markets are betting the ECB will hike the deposit rate to -0.4% in September as expectations for global central-bank policy tightening gather pace. Resilience in the spot market and a divergence with rate differentials in the past sessions has resulted in a flatter volatility skew for the euro.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>香港股市收复早前跌幅，上涨4.3%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">中国</a>辩论通过百度等搜索引擎提供腾讯控股微信消息应用程序上数亿篇文章的规则。</li><li>随着比特币股价上涨5.3%，接近六个月新高，加密货币相关股票纷纷上涨。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIOT\">防暴区块链公司。</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MARA\">马拉松数字控股公司</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">比特币基地全球公司。</a>都起来了。</li><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>周一盘前交易中，该股上涨0.2%，在周三公布第三季度业绩之前，有望较3月8日低点上涨50%。</li><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DVAX\">Dynavax</a>生物制药公司Valneva宣布灭活佐剂Covid-19候选疫苗VLA2001的试验达到了其共同主要终点后，该公司股价在美国盘前交易时段上涨了10%</li><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIS\">迪斯尼</a>巴克莱银行将评级下调至同等权重后，盘前交易下跌，因为该公司面临着实现长期流媒体订阅指导的“艰巨”任务。</li><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTAP\">NetApp</a>盘前交易下跌2.2%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>分析师Rod Hall将NetApp Inc.的评级从中性下调至卖出。</li></ul><b>在FX中，</b>彭博美元现货指数上涨，美元兑所有10国集团同行走高，在英国央行行长贝利表示央行“将不得不对通胀采取行动”后，交易员撤回了远期加息押注。英国货币市场目前预计英国央行12月份将加息36个基点，并预计下个月将收紧15个基点。交易员现在还押注英国央行的关键利率将从目前的0.1%升至8月份的1%。欧元在亚洲时段跌破1.16美元关口后难以回升；随着全球央行政策收紧的预期加快，货币市场押注欧洲央行将在9月份将存款利率上调至-0.4%。现货市场的弹性以及过去几个交易日与利差的背离导致欧元的波动性趋于平缓。</blockquote></p><p> <b>In rates, </b>treasuries were under pressure led by belly of the curve as rate-hike premium continues to increase in global interest rates. Yields, though off session highs, remain cheaper by nearly 5bp in 5-year sector; 2s5s30s fly topped at -12.5bp, cheapest since 2018; 10-year is up 2.8bp around 1.60% vs 3.4bp increase for U.K. 10-year. Belly-led losses flattened U.S. 5s30s by as much as 5.4bp to tightest since April 2020 at around 86.1bp; U.K. 5s30s curve is flatter by ~8bp after its 5-year yield rose as much as 14bp.</p><p><blockquote><b>在费率方面，</b>随着全球利率加息溢价持续上升，美国国债面临曲线腹部带来的压力。5年期国债收益率虽然脱离盘中高点，但仍便宜近5个基点；2s5s30s最高为-12.5个基点，为2018年以来最便宜；10年期国债上涨2.8个基点，约为1.60%，而英国10年期国债上涨3.4个基点。腹部主导的下跌使美国5S30指数下跌5.4个基点，至2020年4月以来的最低水平，约为86.1个基点；英国5年期国债收益率上涨14bp后，5s30s曲线平坦了约8bp。</blockquote></p><p> Gilts led the move, with U.K. 2-year yield climbing as much as 16.8bp to highest since May 2019 as money markets priced in more policy tightening after Governor Andrew Bailey said the Bank of England “will have to act” on inflation. With latest moves, U.S. swaps market prices in two Fed hikes by the end of 2022.</p><p><blockquote>英国国债领涨，英国2年期国债收益率攀升16.8个基点，至2019年5月以来的最高水平，因为在行长安德鲁·贝利(Andrew Bailey)表示英国央行“将不得不对通胀采取行动”后，货币市场消化了更多政策收紧的影响。根据最新举措，美国将在2022年底前两次美联储加息中交换市场价格。</blockquote></p><p> <b>In commodities, </b>WTI rose 1%, trading just off session highs near $83.20; Brent holds above $85. Spot gold drifts lower near $1,762/oz. Most base metals are in the green with LME lead and tin outperforming.</p><p><blockquote><b>在大宗商品中，</b>WTI上涨1%，交易价格略低于83.20美元附近的盘中高点；布伦特原油维持在85美元上方。现货黄金在1762美元/盎司附近走低。大多数基本金属呈绿色，LME铅和锡表现优于大盘。</blockquote></p><p> Looking at today's calendar, we have industrial production, US September industrial production, capacity utilisation, October NAHB housing market index. Fed speakers include Quarles, Kashkari.</p><p><blockquote>看看今天的日历，我们有工业生产、美国9月工业生产、产能利用率、10月NAHB房地产市场指数。美联储发言人包括夸尔斯、卡什卡利。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Toplines Before US Market Open on Monday<blockquote>周一美国市场开盘前的顶线</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nToplines Before US Market Open on Monday<blockquote>周一美国市场开盘前的顶线</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-10-18 19:53</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Oct&nbsp;18)&nbsp;Stock futures fell Monday morning to give back some gains after theS&amp;P 500's best week since July, with investors' concerns over elevated inflation offsetting hopes that more companies will follow the lead of the big banks last week and post strong quarterly earnings results.</p><p><blockquote>（10月18日）周一上午，在标准普尔500指数创下7月以来最好的一周后，股指期货下跌，回吐部分涨幅，投资者对通胀上升的担忧抵消了更多公司将效仿上周大银行并公布强劲季度收益的希望结果。</blockquote></p><p> At 07:55 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were down 114 points, or 0.32%, S&amp;P 500 e-minis were down 13 points, or 0.29%, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">Nasdaq</a> 100 e-minis were down 29.5 points, or 0.19%.</p><p><blockquote>截至美国东部时间上午07:55，道琼斯电子迷你指数下跌114点，跌幅0.32%，标普500电子迷你指数下跌13点，跌幅0.29%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">纳斯达克</a>100辆e-mini下跌29.5点，跌幅0.19%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b70366d9fa5fd9b7e99f325a5de0e9d\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"509\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Stocks making the biggest moves in the premarket:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盘前涨幅最大的股票：</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a> shares erased earlier losses and climbed as much as 4.3% in Hong Kong, as <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">China</a> debates rules to make hundreds of millions of articles on Tencent’s WeChat messaging app available via search engines like Baidu’s.</li>  <li>Crypto-related stocks in action as Bitcoin leaps as much as 5.3% and is just shy of a fresh six-month high. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIOT\">Riot Blockchain, Inc.</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MARA\">Marathon Digital Holdings Inc</a> and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">Coinbase Global, Inc.</a>&nbsp;are all up.</li>  <li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla Motors</a> shares rise 0.2% in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading Monday, poised for 50% rally from a March 8 low, ahead of its third-quarter results on Wednesday.</li>  <li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DVAX\">Dynavax</a> shares rise as much as 10% in U.S. pre-trading hours after the biopharmaceutical company announced that Valneva reported the trial of inactivated, adjuvanted Covid-19 vaccine candidate VLA2001 met its co-primary endpoints</li>  <li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIS\">Walt Disney</a> drops in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading after Barclays downgrades to equal-weight as the company faces a “tough” task to get to its long-term streaming subscription guidance.</li>  <li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTAP\">NetApp</a> slips 2.2% in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading after <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a> analyst Rod Hall cut the recommendation on NetApp Inc. to sell from neutral.</li> </ul> <b>In FX, </b>the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index advanced as the dollar traded higher versus all of its Group-of-10 peers Traders pulled forward rate- hike bets after BoE governor Bailey said the central bank “will have to act” on inflation. U.K. money markets now see 36 basis points of BoE rate increases in December and are pricing 15 basis points of tightening next month. Traders are also now betting the BoE’s key rate will rise to 1% by August, from 0.1% currently. The euro struggled to recover after falling below the $1.16 handle in the Asian session; money markets are betting the ECB will hike the deposit rate to -0.4% in September as expectations for global central-bank policy tightening gather pace. Resilience in the spot market and a divergence with rate differentials in the past sessions has resulted in a flatter volatility skew for the euro.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>香港股市收复早前跌幅，上涨4.3%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">中国</a>辩论通过百度等搜索引擎提供腾讯控股微信消息应用程序上数亿篇文章的规则。</li><li>随着比特币股价上涨5.3%，接近六个月新高，加密货币相关股票纷纷上涨。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIOT\">防暴区块链公司。</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MARA\">马拉松数字控股公司</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">比特币基地全球公司。</a>都起来了。</li><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>周一盘前交易中，该股上涨0.2%，在周三公布第三季度业绩之前，有望较3月8日低点上涨50%。</li><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DVAX\">Dynavax</a>生物制药公司Valneva宣布灭活佐剂Covid-19候选疫苗VLA2001的试验达到了其共同主要终点后，该公司股价在美国盘前交易时段上涨了10%</li><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIS\">迪斯尼</a>巴克莱银行将评级下调至同等权重后，盘前交易下跌，因为该公司面临着实现长期流媒体订阅指导的“艰巨”任务。</li><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTAP\">NetApp</a>盘前交易下跌2.2%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>分析师Rod Hall将NetApp Inc.的评级从中性下调至卖出。</li></ul><b>在FX中，</b>彭博美元现货指数上涨，美元兑所有10国集团同行走高，在英国央行行长贝利表示央行“将不得不对通胀采取行动”后，交易员撤回了远期加息押注。英国货币市场目前预计英国央行12月份将加息36个基点，并预计下个月将收紧15个基点。交易员现在还押注英国央行的关键利率将从目前的0.1%升至8月份的1%。欧元在亚洲时段跌破1.16美元关口后难以回升；随着全球央行政策收紧的预期加快，货币市场押注欧洲央行将在9月份将存款利率上调至-0.4%。现货市场的弹性以及过去几个交易日与利差的背离导致欧元的波动性趋于平缓。</blockquote></p><p> <b>In rates, </b>treasuries were under pressure led by belly of the curve as rate-hike premium continues to increase in global interest rates. Yields, though off session highs, remain cheaper by nearly 5bp in 5-year sector; 2s5s30s fly topped at -12.5bp, cheapest since 2018; 10-year is up 2.8bp around 1.60% vs 3.4bp increase for U.K. 10-year. Belly-led losses flattened U.S. 5s30s by as much as 5.4bp to tightest since April 2020 at around 86.1bp; U.K. 5s30s curve is flatter by ~8bp after its 5-year yield rose as much as 14bp.</p><p><blockquote><b>在费率方面，</b>随着全球利率加息溢价持续上升，美国国债面临曲线腹部带来的压力。5年期国债收益率虽然脱离盘中高点，但仍便宜近5个基点；2s5s30s最高为-12.5个基点，为2018年以来最便宜；10年期国债上涨2.8个基点，约为1.60%，而英国10年期国债上涨3.4个基点。腹部主导的下跌使美国5S30指数下跌5.4个基点，至2020年4月以来的最低水平，约为86.1个基点；英国5年期国债收益率上涨14bp后，5s30s曲线平坦了约8bp。</blockquote></p><p> Gilts led the move, with U.K. 2-year yield climbing as much as 16.8bp to highest since May 2019 as money markets priced in more policy tightening after Governor Andrew Bailey said the Bank of England “will have to act” on inflation. With latest moves, U.S. swaps market prices in two Fed hikes by the end of 2022.</p><p><blockquote>英国国债领涨，英国2年期国债收益率攀升16.8个基点，至2019年5月以来的最高水平，因为在行长安德鲁·贝利(Andrew Bailey)表示英国央行“将不得不对通胀采取行动”后，货币市场消化了更多政策收紧的影响。根据最新举措，美国将在2022年底前两次美联储加息中交换市场价格。</blockquote></p><p> <b>In commodities, </b>WTI rose 1%, trading just off session highs near $83.20; Brent holds above $85. Spot gold drifts lower near $1,762/oz. Most base metals are in the green with LME lead and tin outperforming.</p><p><blockquote><b>在大宗商品中，</b>WTI上涨1%，交易价格略低于83.20美元附近的盘中高点；布伦特原油维持在85美元上方。现货黄金在1762美元/盎司附近走低。大多数基本金属呈绿色，LME铅和锡表现优于大盘。</blockquote></p><p> Looking at today's calendar, we have industrial production, US September industrial production, capacity utilisation, October NAHB housing market index. Fed speakers include Quarles, Kashkari.</p><p><blockquote>看看今天的日历，我们有工业生产、美国9月工业生产、产能利用率、10月NAHB房地产市场指数。美联储发言人包括夸尔斯、卡什卡利。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1189411842","content_text":"(Oct 18) Stock futures fell Monday morning to give back some gains after theS&P 500's best week since July, with investors' concerns over elevated inflation offsetting hopes that more companies will follow the lead of the big banks last week and post strong quarterly earnings results.\nAt 07:55 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were down 114 points, or 0.32%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 13 points, or 0.29%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 29.5 points, or 0.19%.\n\nStocks making the biggest moves in the premarket:\n\nBaidu shares erased earlier losses and climbed as much as 4.3% in Hong Kong, as China debates rules to make hundreds of millions of articles on Tencent’s WeChat messaging app available via search engines like Baidu’s.\nCrypto-related stocks in action as Bitcoin leaps as much as 5.3% and is just shy of a fresh six-month high. Riot Blockchain, Inc., Marathon Digital Holdings Inc and Coinbase Global, Inc. are all up.\nTesla Motors shares rise 0.2% in premarket trading Monday, poised for 50% rally from a March 8 low, ahead of its third-quarter results on Wednesday.\nDynavax shares rise as much as 10% in U.S. pre-trading hours after the biopharmaceutical company announced that Valneva reported the trial of inactivated, adjuvanted Covid-19 vaccine candidate VLA2001 met its co-primary endpoints\nWalt Disney drops in premarket trading after Barclays downgrades to equal-weight as the company faces a “tough” task to get to its long-term streaming subscription guidance.\nNetApp slips 2.2% in premarket trading after Goldman Sachs analyst Rod Hall cut the recommendation on NetApp Inc. to sell from neutral.\n\nIn FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index advanced as the dollar traded higher versus all of its Group-of-10 peers Traders pulled forward rate- hike bets after BoE governor Bailey said the central bank “will have to act” on inflation. U.K. money markets now see 36 basis points of BoE rate increases in December and are pricing 15 basis points of tightening next month. Traders are also now betting the BoE’s key rate will rise to 1% by August, from 0.1% currently. The euro struggled to recover after falling below the $1.16 handle in the Asian session; money markets are betting the ECB will hike the deposit rate to -0.4% in September as expectations for global central-bank policy tightening gather pace. Resilience in the spot market and a divergence with rate differentials in the past sessions has resulted in a flatter volatility skew for the euro.\nIn rates, treasuries were under pressure led by belly of the curve as rate-hike premium continues to increase in global interest rates. Yields, though off session highs, remain cheaper by nearly 5bp in 5-year sector; 2s5s30s fly topped at -12.5bp, cheapest since 2018; 10-year is up 2.8bp around 1.60% vs 3.4bp increase for U.K. 10-year. Belly-led losses flattened U.S. 5s30s by as much as 5.4bp to tightest since April 2020 at around 86.1bp; U.K. 5s30s curve is flatter by ~8bp after its 5-year yield rose as much as 14bp.\nGilts led the move, with U.K. 2-year yield climbing as much as 16.8bp to highest since May 2019 as money markets priced in more policy tightening after Governor Andrew Bailey said the Bank of England “will have to act” on inflation. With latest moves, U.S. swaps market prices in two Fed hikes by the end of 2022.\nIn commodities, WTI rose 1%, trading just off session highs near $83.20; Brent holds above $85. Spot gold drifts lower near $1,762/oz. Most base metals are in the green with LME lead and tin outperforming.\nLooking at today's calendar, we have industrial production, US September industrial production, capacity utilisation, October NAHB housing market index. 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14:42","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tactical Update: Fundamental Shifts May Send The Stock Market Even Lower<blockquote>战术更新：基本面变化可能导致股市进一步走低</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149738417","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nConsensus earnings estimates have now turned lower, and more worrying is that the number of","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Consensus earnings estimates have now turned lower, and more worrying is that the number of companies now seeing downward earnings revisions is on the rise.</li>  <li>There is now an increasing amount of uncertainty around earnings estimates looking forward.</li>  <li>The PE Ratio (NTM) fell below 20.5 for the first time since the spring of 2020 and has been a significant level of support.</li> </ul> <i>This story was originally published on October 2 for members of Reading The Markets, an SA Marketplace service. It has been updated as of October 6.</i></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>普遍的盈利预期现在已经降低，更令人担忧的是，现在盈利下调的公司数量正在增加。</li><li>现在，未来盈利预测的不确定性越来越大。</li><li>市盈率（NTM）自2020年春季以来首次跌破20.5，一直是重要的支撑位。</li></ul><i>本文最初于10月2日为SA市场服务Reading The Markets的成员发布。截至10月6日已更新。</i></blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 just had its worst month in some time, with the index falling about 4.8% in September. It has been the steepest decline since the Covid pandemic began in March 2020. To this point, the slide appears to be in connection with a changing economic environment, which has been centered around slowing global growth, with the US GDP growth for the third quarter tracking at 1.3%, according to the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model. A far cry from the 7% projection that was initially forecast by many economists and analysts when the quarter began.</p><p><blockquote>标普500刚刚经历了一段时间以来最糟糕的一个月，该指数在9月份下跌了约4.8%。这是自2020年3月新冠疫情开始以来的最大跌幅。到目前为止，下滑似乎与不断变化的经济环境有关，经济环境以全球经济增长放缓为中心，根据亚特兰大联储GDPNow模型，美国第三季度GDP增长率为1.3%。这与许多经济学家和分析师在本季度开始时最初预测的7%相去甚远。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Exhibit 1: GDPNow is forecasting just 1.3% third-quarter US growth.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>图表1：GDPNow预测美国第三季度仅增长1.3%。</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4b7001a14874f54871970ba975bb04c\" tg-width=\"626\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> As highlighted on multiple occasions, there has been a clear sign that would suggest GDP growth was decelerating. Now that it is widely accepted that third-quarter GDP growth will be much slower than expected, it has become our belief that slowing GDP growth would eventually spill into earnings estimates. As notedpreviously, we began to see earnings estimates turn lower in our models, while consensus estimates began to stall. Those consensus earnings estimates have now turned lower, and more worrying is that the number of companies now seeing downward earnings revisions is on the rise.</p><p><blockquote>正如在多个场合强调的那样，有明显的迹象表明GDP增长正在减速。既然人们普遍认为第三季度GDP增长将远低于预期，我们就相信GDP增长放缓最终会影响盈利预期。如前所述，我们开始看到模型中的盈利预期下降，而共识预期开始停滞。这些普遍的盈利预期现在已经降低，更令人担忧的是，现在盈利下调的公司数量正在增加。</blockquote></p><p> Worse, there is now an increasing amount of uncertainty around earnings estimates looking forward. Based on historical trends, increasing uncertainty in earnings estimates appears to be highly correlated to spikes in the VIX index and S&amp;P 500 drawdowns.</p><p><blockquote>更糟糕的是，现在围绕未来盈利预测的不确定性越来越大。根据历史趋势，盈利预测不确定性的增加似乎与VIX指数飙升和标普500下降高度相关。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Downward Revisions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>向下修正</b></blockquote></p><p> Consensus earnings estimates for the next twelve months (NTM) fell this week to $212.75 from $212.92. As of October 6, those estimates now stand at $211.97, a minor drop but the first big decline in estimates since October 2020. But more important is that the number of companies in the S&amp;P 500 that saw downward earnings revisions rose to 209 this past week; it's the highest reading since the pandemic began. Meanwhile, the number of stocks seeing upgrades fell to 225, pushing the difference (spread) to just 16. Changes in the spread can also be highly correlated to year-over-year changes in the S&amp;P 500 index itself. The decline in the spread of earnings revisions is similar to the deterioration witnessed at the beginning of 2018.</p><p><blockquote>未来12个月(NTM)的普遍盈利预期本周从212.92美元降至212.75美元。截至10月6日，这些预估目前为211.97美元，略有下降，但自2020年10月以来首次大幅下降。但更重要的是，过去一周标普500下调盈利的公司数量升至209家；这是自疫情开始以来的最高读数。与此同时，上调评级的股票数量降至225只，差价仅为16只。利差的变化也可能与标普500指数本身的同比变化高度相关。盈利修正价差的下降与2018年初的恶化类似。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Exhibit 2: Downward earnings revisions are rising quickly, as upward revisions are falling.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>图表2：盈利向下修正迅速上升，而向上修正则在下降。</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2606205081a33afb3a743659b4604f60\" tg-width=\"626\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Also, perhaps more important is that analysts appear to be growing more uncertain about the future path of earnings estimates, as noted by the standard deviation of those estimates. The standard deviation for earnings estimates looking 18 months forward has steadily risen. It is now at 15.1%, up from a low of 12.9% in February. It is worth noting that the standard deviation in earnings has been much higher post-Covid than pre-Covid. The rising level of uncertainty in earnings estimates seems to connect with rises in volatility in the equity market, as noted by the VIX index.</p><p><blockquote>此外，也许更重要的是，正如这些预测的标准差所表明的那样，分析师似乎对盈利预测的未来路径越来越不确定。未来18个月盈利预测的标准差稳步上升。目前为15.1%，高于2月份12.9%的低点。值得注意的是，新冠疫情后的盈利标准差远高于新冠疫情前。正如VIX指数所指出的，盈利预测不确定性的上升似乎与股市波动性的上升有关。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Increasing Uncertainty</b></p><p><blockquote><b>不确定性增加</b></blockquote></p><p> Starting in 2010, a falling standard deviation has been associated with a declining VIX index, while an increasing standard deviation has led to spikes in the index.</p><p><blockquote>从2010年开始，标准差下降与VIX指数下降相关，而标准差增加则导致该指数飙升。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Exhibit 3: Uncertainty in earnings estimates appear to be highly correlated to the VIX index</i></p><p><blockquote><i>图表3：盈利预测的不确定性似乎与VIX指数高度相关</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a11acbc64c5f8a3ff60ca13892f1cd90\" tg-width=\"626\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> This current period seems to resemble that of 2018 again, with the VIX and earnings uncertainty both spiking in January 2018, but then, more importantly, diverging in May 2018, with the VIX falling and remaining low, while earnings uncertainty was rising. It wasn't until October 2018 when the VIX began to spike. Currently, earnings uncertainty and the VIX declined until February 2021, when earnings uncertainty turned higher, and the VIX continued lower. However, there are signs that the VIX is now beginning to turn higher, once again, in this October period as we embark upon earnings season.</p><p><blockquote>当前时期似乎再次类似于2018年，VIX和盈利不确定性都在2018年1月飙升，但更重要的是，在2018年5月出现分化，VIX下跌并保持在低位，而盈利不确定性则在上升。直到2018年10月，VIX才开始飙升。目前，盈利不确定性和VIX一直在下降，直到2021年2月，盈利不确定性转高，VIX继续走低。然而，有迹象表明，随着我们进入财报季，VIX指数在10月份再次开始走高。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <i>Exhibit 4: Earnings uncertainty is rising as the VIX is falling. The last time this happened was in 2018, and the VIX eventually caught up.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>图表4：随着VIX下跌，盈利不确定性正在上升。上一次发生这种情况是在2018年，VIX最终赶上了。</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99852382b26fc00adfaee8fb79a97694\" tg-width=\"626\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Multiple Contraction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>多次收缩</b></blockquote></p><p> Additionally, this week the PE ratio of the S&amp;P 500 briefly fell below the critical 20.5 level. The PE Ratio (NTM) has been steadily declining but has always managed to find support at 20.5. This week it dipped below that level and closed on it to finish the week. This could be a turning point for the market, suggesting further ratio contraction in the weeks ahead. This would make sense, especially if downward earnings revisions and uncertainty pick up.</p><p><blockquote>此外，本周标普500的市盈率一度跌破20.5的关键水平。市盈率(NTM)一直在稳步下降，但始终在20.5找到支撑。本周，它跌破了这一水平，并在本周结束时收盘。这可能是市场的转折点，表明未来几周比率将进一步收缩。这是有道理的，特别是如果盈利下调和不确定性加剧的话。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Exhibit 5: The PE Ratio (NTM) fell below 20.5 for the first time since the spring of 2020 and has been a significant level of support.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>图表5：市盈率（NTM）自2020年春季以来首次跌破20.5，一直是重要支撑位。</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f69b122c9e13e4026df2fd5b5af52b52\" tg-width=\"626\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> It really does all begin to make sense why we have started seeing volatility in the S&amp;P 500 index pick-up. Due to several changing fundamental factors, including the Federal Reserve's evolving stance on monetary policy, which is likely to not be as friendly for stocks going forward. Couple this with a truly fundamental shift in earnings estimates, and this could be the market's first real test since the spring of 2020.</p><p><blockquote>这确实开始解释为什么我们开始看到标普500指数回升的波动性。由于几个不断变化的基本面因素，包括美联储在货币政策上不断变化的立场，这可能对未来的股市不那么友好。再加上盈利预期的真正根本性转变，这可能是市场自2020年春季以来的首次真正考验。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tactical Update: Fundamental Shifts May Send The Stock Market Even Lower<blockquote>战术更新：基本面变化可能导致股市进一步走低</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTactical Update: Fundamental Shifts May Send The Stock Market Even Lower<blockquote>战术更新：基本面变化可能导致股市进一步走低</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-07 14:42</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Consensus earnings estimates have now turned lower, and more worrying is that the number of companies now seeing downward earnings revisions is on the rise.</li>  <li>There is now an increasing amount of uncertainty around earnings estimates looking forward.</li>  <li>The PE Ratio (NTM) fell below 20.5 for the first time since the spring of 2020 and has been a significant level of support.</li> </ul> <i>This story was originally published on October 2 for members of Reading The Markets, an SA Marketplace service. It has been updated as of October 6.</i></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>普遍的盈利预期现在已经降低，更令人担忧的是，现在盈利下调的公司数量正在增加。</li><li>现在，未来盈利预测的不确定性越来越大。</li><li>市盈率（NTM）自2020年春季以来首次跌破20.5，一直是重要的支撑位。</li></ul><i>本文最初于10月2日为SA市场服务Reading The Markets的成员发布。截至10月6日已更新。</i></blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 just had its worst month in some time, with the index falling about 4.8% in September. It has been the steepest decline since the Covid pandemic began in March 2020. To this point, the slide appears to be in connection with a changing economic environment, which has been centered around slowing global growth, with the US GDP growth for the third quarter tracking at 1.3%, according to the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model. A far cry from the 7% projection that was initially forecast by many economists and analysts when the quarter began.</p><p><blockquote>标普500刚刚经历了一段时间以来最糟糕的一个月，该指数在9月份下跌了约4.8%。这是自2020年3月新冠疫情开始以来的最大跌幅。到目前为止，下滑似乎与不断变化的经济环境有关，经济环境以全球经济增长放缓为中心，根据亚特兰大联储GDPNow模型，美国第三季度GDP增长率为1.3%。这与许多经济学家和分析师在本季度开始时最初预测的7%相去甚远。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Exhibit 1: GDPNow is forecasting just 1.3% third-quarter US growth.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>图表1：GDPNow预测美国第三季度仅增长1.3%。</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4b7001a14874f54871970ba975bb04c\" tg-width=\"626\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> As highlighted on multiple occasions, there has been a clear sign that would suggest GDP growth was decelerating. Now that it is widely accepted that third-quarter GDP growth will be much slower than expected, it has become our belief that slowing GDP growth would eventually spill into earnings estimates. As notedpreviously, we began to see earnings estimates turn lower in our models, while consensus estimates began to stall. Those consensus earnings estimates have now turned lower, and more worrying is that the number of companies now seeing downward earnings revisions is on the rise.</p><p><blockquote>正如在多个场合强调的那样，有明显的迹象表明GDP增长正在减速。既然人们普遍认为第三季度GDP增长将远低于预期，我们就相信GDP增长放缓最终会影响盈利预期。如前所述，我们开始看到模型中的盈利预期下降，而共识预期开始停滞。这些普遍的盈利预期现在已经降低，更令人担忧的是，现在盈利下调的公司数量正在增加。</blockquote></p><p> Worse, there is now an increasing amount of uncertainty around earnings estimates looking forward. Based on historical trends, increasing uncertainty in earnings estimates appears to be highly correlated to spikes in the VIX index and S&amp;P 500 drawdowns.</p><p><blockquote>更糟糕的是，现在围绕未来盈利预测的不确定性越来越大。根据历史趋势，盈利预测不确定性的增加似乎与VIX指数飙升和标普500下降高度相关。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Downward Revisions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>向下修正</b></blockquote></p><p> Consensus earnings estimates for the next twelve months (NTM) fell this week to $212.75 from $212.92. As of October 6, those estimates now stand at $211.97, a minor drop but the first big decline in estimates since October 2020. But more important is that the number of companies in the S&amp;P 500 that saw downward earnings revisions rose to 209 this past week; it's the highest reading since the pandemic began. Meanwhile, the number of stocks seeing upgrades fell to 225, pushing the difference (spread) to just 16. Changes in the spread can also be highly correlated to year-over-year changes in the S&amp;P 500 index itself. The decline in the spread of earnings revisions is similar to the deterioration witnessed at the beginning of 2018.</p><p><blockquote>未来12个月(NTM)的普遍盈利预期本周从212.92美元降至212.75美元。截至10月6日，这些预估目前为211.97美元，略有下降，但自2020年10月以来首次大幅下降。但更重要的是，过去一周标普500下调盈利的公司数量升至209家；这是自疫情开始以来的最高读数。与此同时，上调评级的股票数量降至225只，差价仅为16只。利差的变化也可能与标普500指数本身的同比变化高度相关。盈利修正价差的下降与2018年初的恶化类似。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Exhibit 2: Downward earnings revisions are rising quickly, as upward revisions are falling.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>图表2：盈利向下修正迅速上升，而向上修正则在下降。</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2606205081a33afb3a743659b4604f60\" tg-width=\"626\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Also, perhaps more important is that analysts appear to be growing more uncertain about the future path of earnings estimates, as noted by the standard deviation of those estimates. The standard deviation for earnings estimates looking 18 months forward has steadily risen. It is now at 15.1%, up from a low of 12.9% in February. It is worth noting that the standard deviation in earnings has been much higher post-Covid than pre-Covid. The rising level of uncertainty in earnings estimates seems to connect with rises in volatility in the equity market, as noted by the VIX index.</p><p><blockquote>此外，也许更重要的是，正如这些预测的标准差所表明的那样，分析师似乎对盈利预测的未来路径越来越不确定。未来18个月盈利预测的标准差稳步上升。目前为15.1%，高于2月份12.9%的低点。值得注意的是，新冠疫情后的盈利标准差远高于新冠疫情前。正如VIX指数所指出的，盈利预测不确定性的上升似乎与股市波动性的上升有关。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Increasing Uncertainty</b></p><p><blockquote><b>不确定性增加</b></blockquote></p><p> Starting in 2010, a falling standard deviation has been associated with a declining VIX index, while an increasing standard deviation has led to spikes in the index.</p><p><blockquote>从2010年开始，标准差下降与VIX指数下降相关，而标准差增加则导致该指数飙升。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Exhibit 3: Uncertainty in earnings estimates appear to be highly correlated to the VIX index</i></p><p><blockquote><i>图表3：盈利预测的不确定性似乎与VIX指数高度相关</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a11acbc64c5f8a3ff60ca13892f1cd90\" tg-width=\"626\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> This current period seems to resemble that of 2018 again, with the VIX and earnings uncertainty both spiking in January 2018, but then, more importantly, diverging in May 2018, with the VIX falling and remaining low, while earnings uncertainty was rising. It wasn't until October 2018 when the VIX began to spike. Currently, earnings uncertainty and the VIX declined until February 2021, when earnings uncertainty turned higher, and the VIX continued lower. However, there are signs that the VIX is now beginning to turn higher, once again, in this October period as we embark upon earnings season.</p><p><blockquote>当前时期似乎再次类似于2018年，VIX和盈利不确定性都在2018年1月飙升，但更重要的是，在2018年5月出现分化，VIX下跌并保持在低位，而盈利不确定性则在上升。直到2018年10月，VIX才开始飙升。目前，盈利不确定性和VIX一直在下降，直到2021年2月，盈利不确定性转高，VIX继续走低。然而，有迹象表明，随着我们进入财报季，VIX指数在10月份再次开始走高。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <i>Exhibit 4: Earnings uncertainty is rising as the VIX is falling. The last time this happened was in 2018, and the VIX eventually caught up.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>图表4：随着VIX下跌，盈利不确定性正在上升。上一次发生这种情况是在2018年，VIX最终赶上了。</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99852382b26fc00adfaee8fb79a97694\" tg-width=\"626\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Multiple Contraction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>多次收缩</b></blockquote></p><p> Additionally, this week the PE ratio of the S&amp;P 500 briefly fell below the critical 20.5 level. The PE Ratio (NTM) has been steadily declining but has always managed to find support at 20.5. This week it dipped below that level and closed on it to finish the week. This could be a turning point for the market, suggesting further ratio contraction in the weeks ahead. This would make sense, especially if downward earnings revisions and uncertainty pick up.</p><p><blockquote>此外，本周标普500的市盈率一度跌破20.5的关键水平。市盈率(NTM)一直在稳步下降，但始终在20.5找到支撑。本周，它跌破了这一水平，并在本周结束时收盘。这可能是市场的转折点，表明未来几周比率将进一步收缩。这是有道理的，特别是如果盈利下调和不确定性加剧的话。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Exhibit 5: The PE Ratio (NTM) fell below 20.5 for the first time since the spring of 2020 and has been a significant level of support.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>图表5：市盈率（NTM）自2020年春季以来首次跌破20.5，一直是重要支撑位。</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f69b122c9e13e4026df2fd5b5af52b52\" tg-width=\"626\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> It really does all begin to make sense why we have started seeing volatility in the S&amp;P 500 index pick-up. Due to several changing fundamental factors, including the Federal Reserve's evolving stance on monetary policy, which is likely to not be as friendly for stocks going forward. Couple this with a truly fundamental shift in earnings estimates, and this could be the market's first real test since the spring of 2020.</p><p><blockquote>这确实开始解释为什么我们开始看到标普500指数回升的波动性。由于几个不断变化的基本面因素，包括美联储在货币政策上不断变化的立场，这可能对未来的股市不那么友好。再加上盈利预期的真正根本性转变，这可能是市场自2020年春季以来的首次真正考验。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4458687-tactical-update-fundamental-shifts-may-send-the-stock-market-even-lower\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4458687-tactical-update-fundamental-shifts-may-send-the-stock-market-even-lower","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1149738417","content_text":"Summary\n\nConsensus earnings estimates have now turned lower, and more worrying is that the number of companies now seeing downward earnings revisions is on the rise.\nThere is now an increasing amount of uncertainty around earnings estimates looking forward.\nThe PE Ratio (NTM) fell below 20.5 for the first time since the spring of 2020 and has been a significant level of support.\n\nThis story was originally published on October 2 for members of Reading The Markets, an SA Marketplace service. It has been updated as of October 6.\nThe S&P 500 just had its worst month in some time, with the index falling about 4.8% in September. It has been the steepest decline since the Covid pandemic began in March 2020. To this point, the slide appears to be in connection with a changing economic environment, which has been centered around slowing global growth, with the US GDP growth for the third quarter tracking at 1.3%, according to the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model. A far cry from the 7% projection that was initially forecast by many economists and analysts when the quarter began.\nExhibit 1: GDPNow is forecasting just 1.3% third-quarter US growth.\n\nAs highlighted on multiple occasions, there has been a clear sign that would suggest GDP growth was decelerating. Now that it is widely accepted that third-quarter GDP growth will be much slower than expected, it has become our belief that slowing GDP growth would eventually spill into earnings estimates. As notedpreviously, we began to see earnings estimates turn lower in our models, while consensus estimates began to stall. Those consensus earnings estimates have now turned lower, and more worrying is that the number of companies now seeing downward earnings revisions is on the rise.\nWorse, there is now an increasing amount of uncertainty around earnings estimates looking forward. Based on historical trends, increasing uncertainty in earnings estimates appears to be highly correlated to spikes in the VIX index and S&P 500 drawdowns.\nDownward Revisions\nConsensus earnings estimates for the next twelve months (NTM) fell this week to $212.75 from $212.92. As of October 6, those estimates now stand at $211.97, a minor drop but the first big decline in estimates since October 2020. But more important is that the number of companies in the S&P 500 that saw downward earnings revisions rose to 209 this past week; it's the highest reading since the pandemic began. Meanwhile, the number of stocks seeing upgrades fell to 225, pushing the difference (spread) to just 16. Changes in the spread can also be highly correlated to year-over-year changes in the S&P 500 index itself. The decline in the spread of earnings revisions is similar to the deterioration witnessed at the beginning of 2018.\nExhibit 2: Downward earnings revisions are rising quickly, as upward revisions are falling.\n\nAlso, perhaps more important is that analysts appear to be growing more uncertain about the future path of earnings estimates, as noted by the standard deviation of those estimates. The standard deviation for earnings estimates looking 18 months forward has steadily risen. It is now at 15.1%, up from a low of 12.9% in February. It is worth noting that the standard deviation in earnings has been much higher post-Covid than pre-Covid. The rising level of uncertainty in earnings estimates seems to connect with rises in volatility in the equity market, as noted by the VIX index.\nIncreasing Uncertainty\nStarting in 2010, a falling standard deviation has been associated with a declining VIX index, while an increasing standard deviation has led to spikes in the index.\nExhibit 3: Uncertainty in earnings estimates appear to be highly correlated to the VIX index\n\nThis current period seems to resemble that of 2018 again, with the VIX and earnings uncertainty both spiking in January 2018, but then, more importantly, diverging in May 2018, with the VIX falling and remaining low, while earnings uncertainty was rising. It wasn't until October 2018 when the VIX began to spike. Currently, earnings uncertainty and the VIX declined until February 2021, when earnings uncertainty turned higher, and the VIX continued lower. However, there are signs that the VIX is now beginning to turn higher, once again, in this October period as we embark upon earnings season.\nExhibit 4: Earnings uncertainty is rising as the VIX is falling. The last time this happened was in 2018, and the VIX eventually caught up.\n\nMultiple Contraction\nAdditionally, this week the PE ratio of the S&P 500 briefly fell below the critical 20.5 level. The PE Ratio (NTM) has been steadily declining but has always managed to find support at 20.5. This week it dipped below that level and closed on it to finish the week. This could be a turning point for the market, suggesting further ratio contraction in the weeks ahead. This would make sense, especially if downward earnings revisions and uncertainty pick up.\nExhibit 5: The PE Ratio (NTM) fell below 20.5 for the first time since the spring of 2020 and has been a significant level of support.\n\nIt really does all begin to make sense why we have started seeing volatility in the S&P 500 index pick-up. Due to several changing fundamental factors, including the Federal Reserve's evolving stance on monetary policy, which is likely to not be as friendly for stocks going forward. Couple this with a truly fundamental shift in earnings estimates, and this could be the market's first real test since the spring of 2020.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1252,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":829666746,"gmtCreate":1633500589610,"gmtModify":1633500768171,"author":{"id":"3582016577975526","authorId":"3582016577975526","name":"ivanlam","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b69aadeaeb7dadd4cee48a1d48771644","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582016577975526","authorIdStr":"3582016577975526"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[流泪]&nbsp;","listText":"[流泪]&nbsp;","text":"[流泪]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":15,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/829666746","repostId":"1103782575","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1103782575","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633486462,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1103782575?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-06 10:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Don't worry (too much) about an October market crash<blockquote>不要（过于）担心十月市场崩盘</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1103782575","media":"CNN Business","summary":"New York (CNN Business) - October has often been a spooky month on Wall Street. Stocks famously cras","content":"<p><b>New York (CNN Business)&nbsp;-&nbsp;</b>October has often been a spooky month on Wall Street. Stocks famously crashed in October 1929, 1987 and, most recently, 2008.</p><p><blockquote><b>纽约（CNN商业）——</b>十月在华尔街通常是一个阴森的月份。股市在1929年10月、1987年以及最近的2008年暴跌。</blockquote></p><p> But&nbsp;the marketisn't always a terrifying place to be just before Halloween. In fact,stocks typically go up&nbsp;in October.</p><p><blockquote>但万圣节前夕，市场并不总是一个可怕的地方。事实上，股市通常会在十月份上涨。</blockquote></p><p> According to data from Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at LPL Financial, October is just about in the middle of the pack: It has been the 7th best month for the S&amp;P 500 since 1950 and the 4th best over the past 10 and 20 years.</p><p><blockquote>根据LPL Financial首席市场策略师Ryan Detrick的数据，10月份几乎处于中间位置：它是标普500自1950年以来第7个最佳月份，也是过去10年和20年中第4个最佳月份。</blockquote></p><p> \"October is known for some spectacular crashes and many expect bad things to happen again this year,\" Detrick said in a report last week. \"But the truth is this month is simply misunderstood, as historically it is about an average month.\"</p><p><blockquote>德特里克在上周的一份报告中表示：“十月份因一些壮观的车祸而闻名，许多人预计今年会再次发生糟糕的事情。”“但事实是这个月只是被误解了，因为从历史上看，它大约是一个普通的月份。”</blockquote></p><p> And it could be better than average this October, because there are no potentially game-changing election results coming in November.</p><p><blockquote>今年10月的情况可能会好于平均水平，因为11月没有可能改变游戏规则的选举结果。</blockquote></p><p> Since 1999, the S&amp;P 500 has gained 3.6% in odd-year Octobers and fallen 1.1% in even-numbered ones, corresponding to the US election schedule.</p><p><blockquote>自1999年以来，标普500在奇数年10月上涨3.6%，在偶数年10月下跌1.1%，与美国大选时间表相对应。</blockquote></p><p> \"It turns out stocks don't like politics much,\" Detrick said.</p><p><blockquote>“事实证明，股票不太喜欢政治，”德特里克说。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Many risks remain but outlook still promising for stocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>许多风险依然存在，但股市前景仍然乐观</b></blockquote></p><p> Of course DC headlines could still roil the market this year, albeit not because of an election.</p><p><blockquote>当然，今年DC的头条新闻仍可能扰乱市场，尽管不是因为选举。</blockquote></p><p> The debt ceiling debate has yet to be resolved, and Congress still hasn't passed President Joe Biden's infrastructure and social spending plans. Meanwhile Biden also must soon decide whether he wants to nominate Jerome Powell for a second term as Fed chairman or pick someone else.</p><p><blockquote>债务上限争论尚未解决，国会仍未通过总统乔·拜登的基础设施和社会支出计划。与此同时，拜登还必须很快决定是提名杰罗姆·鲍威尔连任美联储主席，还是选择其他人。</blockquote></p><p> \"The fourth quarter — like the conclusion of sporting events or Broadway plays — is where the drama lies,\" Louis Navellier, chairman of Navellier &amp; Associates, said in a report last week.</p><p><blockquote>Navellier&amp;Associates董事长路易斯·纳维利尔(Louis Navellier)在上周的一份报告中表示：“第四季度——就像体育赛事或百老汇戏剧的结局一样——是戏剧所在。”</blockquote></p><p> That said, Navellier is hopeful the usual seasonal tailwinds for the markets and the broader economy will lift stocks this year.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，纳维利尔希望市场和整体经济通常的季节性顺风能够提振今年的股市。</blockquote></p><p> Stocks tend to enjoy not just solid gains in October, but also for the remainder of the fourth quarter. Consumer spending surges during the holiday shopping season and businesses often look to boost investments before annual budgets run out.</p><p><blockquote>股市往往不仅在10月份强劲上涨，而且在第四季度剩余时间也是如此。消费者支出在假日购物季激增，企业通常希望在年度预算用完之前增加投资。</blockquote></p><p> With that in mind, some strategists think that investors will continue to focus on the positive when looking ahead to earnings for Q4 and 2022.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到这一点，一些策略师认为，在展望第四季度和2022年的收益时，投资者将继续关注积极的一面。</blockquote></p><p> Yes, worries remain about Covid-19, Fed policy, inflation, global shipping delays and numerous other economic warning signs.</p><p><blockquote>是的，对新冠肺炎、美联储政策、通货膨胀、全球航运延误和许多其他经济警告信号的担忧仍然存在。</blockquote></p><p> But although this could create more volatility than usual in October and the rest of the fourth quarter, few expect that these challenges will lead to another recession. So the path of least resistance for stocks is still upward.</p><p><blockquote>不过，尽管这可能会在10月份和第四季度剩余时间造成比往常更大的波动，但很少有人预计这些挑战会导致另一场衰退。所以股票阻力最小的路径仍然是向上。</blockquote></p><p> \"Virtually all of these problems are showing tangible signs toward resolution,\" Robert Teeter, managing director at Silvercrest Asset Management, said in a report Monday, \"and should not inflict any long-term damage to stock valuations.\"</p><p><blockquote>Silvercrest Asset Management董事总经理罗伯特·蒂特(Robert Teeter)在周一的一份报告中表示：“几乎所有这些问题都显示出解决的切实迹象，并且不会对股票估值造成任何长期损害。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Don't worry (too much) about an October market crash<blockquote>不要（过于）担心十月市场崩盘</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDon't worry (too much) about an October market crash<blockquote>不要（过于）担心十月市场崩盘</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">CNN Business</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-06 10:14</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>New York (CNN Business)&nbsp;-&nbsp;</b>October has often been a spooky month on Wall Street. Stocks famously crashed in October 1929, 1987 and, most recently, 2008.</p><p><blockquote><b>纽约（CNN商业）——</b>十月在华尔街通常是一个阴森的月份。股市在1929年10月、1987年以及最近的2008年暴跌。</blockquote></p><p> But&nbsp;the marketisn't always a terrifying place to be just before Halloween. In fact,stocks typically go up&nbsp;in October.</p><p><blockquote>但万圣节前夕，市场并不总是一个可怕的地方。事实上，股市通常会在十月份上涨。</blockquote></p><p> According to data from Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at LPL Financial, October is just about in the middle of the pack: It has been the 7th best month for the S&amp;P 500 since 1950 and the 4th best over the past 10 and 20 years.</p><p><blockquote>根据LPL Financial首席市场策略师Ryan Detrick的数据，10月份几乎处于中间位置：它是标普500自1950年以来第7个最佳月份，也是过去10年和20年中第4个最佳月份。</blockquote></p><p> \"October is known for some spectacular crashes and many expect bad things to happen again this year,\" Detrick said in a report last week. \"But the truth is this month is simply misunderstood, as historically it is about an average month.\"</p><p><blockquote>德特里克在上周的一份报告中表示：“十月份因一些壮观的车祸而闻名，许多人预计今年会再次发生糟糕的事情。”“但事实是这个月只是被误解了，因为从历史上看，它大约是一个普通的月份。”</blockquote></p><p> And it could be better than average this October, because there are no potentially game-changing election results coming in November.</p><p><blockquote>今年10月的情况可能会好于平均水平，因为11月没有可能改变游戏规则的选举结果。</blockquote></p><p> Since 1999, the S&amp;P 500 has gained 3.6% in odd-year Octobers and fallen 1.1% in even-numbered ones, corresponding to the US election schedule.</p><p><blockquote>自1999年以来，标普500在奇数年10月上涨3.6%，在偶数年10月下跌1.1%，与美国大选时间表相对应。</blockquote></p><p> \"It turns out stocks don't like politics much,\" Detrick said.</p><p><blockquote>“事实证明，股票不太喜欢政治，”德特里克说。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Many risks remain but outlook still promising for stocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>许多风险依然存在，但股市前景仍然乐观</b></blockquote></p><p> Of course DC headlines could still roil the market this year, albeit not because of an election.</p><p><blockquote>当然，今年DC的头条新闻仍可能扰乱市场，尽管不是因为选举。</blockquote></p><p> The debt ceiling debate has yet to be resolved, and Congress still hasn't passed President Joe Biden's infrastructure and social spending plans. Meanwhile Biden also must soon decide whether he wants to nominate Jerome Powell for a second term as Fed chairman or pick someone else.</p><p><blockquote>债务上限争论尚未解决，国会仍未通过总统乔·拜登的基础设施和社会支出计划。与此同时，拜登还必须很快决定是提名杰罗姆·鲍威尔连任美联储主席，还是选择其他人。</blockquote></p><p> \"The fourth quarter — like the conclusion of sporting events or Broadway plays — is where the drama lies,\" Louis Navellier, chairman of Navellier &amp; Associates, said in a report last week.</p><p><blockquote>Navellier&amp;Associates董事长路易斯·纳维利尔(Louis Navellier)在上周的一份报告中表示：“第四季度——就像体育赛事或百老汇戏剧的结局一样——是戏剧所在。”</blockquote></p><p> That said, Navellier is hopeful the usual seasonal tailwinds for the markets and the broader economy will lift stocks this year.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，纳维利尔希望市场和整体经济通常的季节性顺风能够提振今年的股市。</blockquote></p><p> Stocks tend to enjoy not just solid gains in October, but also for the remainder of the fourth quarter. Consumer spending surges during the holiday shopping season and businesses often look to boost investments before annual budgets run out.</p><p><blockquote>股市往往不仅在10月份强劲上涨，而且在第四季度剩余时间也是如此。消费者支出在假日购物季激增，企业通常希望在年度预算用完之前增加投资。</blockquote></p><p> With that in mind, some strategists think that investors will continue to focus on the positive when looking ahead to earnings for Q4 and 2022.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到这一点，一些策略师认为，在展望第四季度和2022年的收益时，投资者将继续关注积极的一面。</blockquote></p><p> Yes, worries remain about Covid-19, Fed policy, inflation, global shipping delays and numerous other economic warning signs.</p><p><blockquote>是的，对新冠肺炎、美联储政策、通货膨胀、全球航运延误和许多其他经济警告信号的担忧仍然存在。</blockquote></p><p> But although this could create more volatility than usual in October and the rest of the fourth quarter, few expect that these challenges will lead to another recession. So the path of least resistance for stocks is still upward.</p><p><blockquote>不过，尽管这可能会在10月份和第四季度剩余时间造成比往常更大的波动，但很少有人预计这些挑战会导致另一场衰退。所以股票阻力最小的路径仍然是向上。</blockquote></p><p> \"Virtually all of these problems are showing tangible signs toward resolution,\" Robert Teeter, managing director at Silvercrest Asset Management, said in a report Monday, \"and should not inflict any long-term damage to stock valuations.\"</p><p><blockquote>Silvercrest Asset Management董事总经理罗伯特·蒂特(Robert Teeter)在周一的一份报告中表示：“几乎所有这些问题都显示出解决的切实迹象，并且不会对股票估值造成任何长期损害。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/05/investing/october-stocks/index.html\">CNN Business</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/05/investing/october-stocks/index.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1103782575","content_text":"New York (CNN Business) - October has often been a spooky month on Wall Street. Stocks famously crashed in October 1929, 1987 and, most recently, 2008.\nBut the marketisn't always a terrifying place to be just before Halloween. In fact,stocks typically go up in October.\nAccording to data from Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at LPL Financial, October is just about in the middle of the pack: It has been the 7th best month for the S&P 500 since 1950 and the 4th best over the past 10 and 20 years.\n\"October is known for some spectacular crashes and many expect bad things to happen again this year,\" Detrick said in a report last week. \"But the truth is this month is simply misunderstood, as historically it is about an average month.\"\nAnd it could be better than average this October, because there are no potentially game-changing election results coming in November.\nSince 1999, the S&P 500 has gained 3.6% in odd-year Octobers and fallen 1.1% in even-numbered ones, corresponding to the US election schedule.\n\"It turns out stocks don't like politics much,\" Detrick said.\nMany risks remain but outlook still promising for stocks\nOf course DC headlines could still roil the market this year, albeit not because of an election.\nThe debt ceiling debate has yet to be resolved, and Congress still hasn't passed President Joe Biden's infrastructure and social spending plans. Meanwhile Biden also must soon decide whether he wants to nominate Jerome Powell for a second term as Fed chairman or pick someone else.\n\"The fourth quarter — like the conclusion of sporting events or Broadway plays — is where the drama lies,\" Louis Navellier, chairman of Navellier & Associates, said in a report last week.\nThat said, Navellier is hopeful the usual seasonal tailwinds for the markets and the broader economy will lift stocks this year.\nStocks tend to enjoy not just solid gains in October, but also for the remainder of the fourth quarter. Consumer spending surges during the holiday shopping season and businesses often look to boost investments before annual budgets run out.\nWith that in mind, some strategists think that investors will continue to focus on the positive when looking ahead to earnings for Q4 and 2022.\nYes, worries remain about Covid-19, Fed policy, inflation, global shipping delays and numerous other economic warning signs.\nBut although this could create more volatility than usual in October and the rest of the fourth quarter, few expect that these challenges will lead to another recession. So the path of least resistance for stocks is still upward.\n\"Virtually all of these problems are showing tangible signs toward resolution,\" Robert Teeter, managing director at Silvercrest Asset Management, said in a report Monday, \"and should not inflict any long-term damage to stock valuations.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1231,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":820418686,"gmtCreate":1633414446009,"gmtModify":1633414539780,"author":{"id":"3582016577975526","authorId":"3582016577975526","name":"ivanlam","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b69aadeaeb7dadd4cee48a1d48771644","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582016577975526","authorIdStr":"3582016577975526"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":15,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/820418686","repostId":"2173617992","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2173617992","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633390072,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2173617992?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-05 07:27","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"Oil jumps above US$81 with Opec+ sticking to output increase<blockquote>Opec+坚持增产，油价升破81美元</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2173617992","media":"The Straits Times","summary":"BENGALURU (REUTERS) - Oil jumped to a three-year peak on Monday (Oct 4) after Opec+ confirmed it wou","content":"<p><div> BENGALURU (REUTERS) - Oil jumped to a three-year peak on Monday (Oct 4) after Opec+ confirmed it would stick to its current output policy as demand for petroleum products rebounds, despite pressure ...</p><p><blockquote><div>孟加拉鲁鲁（路透社）-油价周一（10月4日）跃升至三年高点，此前石油输出国组织+确认，随着石油产品需求反弹，尽管面临压力...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"http://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/oil-jumps-above-us81-with-opec-sticking-to-output-increase\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"http://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/oil-jumps-above-us81-with-opec-sticking-to-output-increase\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"straits_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Oil jumps above US$81 with Opec+ sticking to output increase<blockquote>Opec+坚持增产，油价升破81美元</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOil jumps above US$81 with Opec+ sticking to output increase<blockquote>Opec+坚持增产，油价升破81美元</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Straits Times</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-05 07:27</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> BENGALURU (REUTERS) - Oil jumped to a three-year peak on Monday (Oct 4) after Opec+ confirmed it would stick to its current output policy as demand for petroleum products rebounds, despite pressure ...</p><p><blockquote><div>孟加拉鲁鲁（路透社）-油价周一（10月4日）跃升至三年高点，此前石油输出国组织+确认，随着石油产品需求反弹，尽管面临压力...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"http://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/oil-jumps-above-us81-with-opec-sticking-to-output-increase\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"http://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/oil-jumps-above-us81-with-opec-sticking-to-output-increase\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"http://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/oil-jumps-above-us81-with-opec-sticking-to-output-increase\">The Straits Times</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"http://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/oil-jumps-above-us81-with-opec-sticking-to-output-increase","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2173617992","content_text":"BENGALURU (REUTERS) - Oil jumped to a three-year peak on Monday (Oct 4) after Opec+ confirmed it would stick to its current output policy as demand for petroleum products rebounds, despite pressure from some countries for a bigger boost to production.\nThe producer club's decision to keep increasing oil output gradually sent prices sharply higher, adding to inflationary pressures that consuming nations fear will derail an economic recovery from the coronavirus pandemic.\nOpec+ agreed in July to boost output by 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) each month until at least April next year to phase out 5.8 million bpd of existing production cuts.\nBrent crude settled up US$1.98, or 2.5 per cent, to US$81.26 a barrel. It rose 1.5 per cent last week for a fourth consecutive weekly gain, and was back up to highs last seen in 2018.\nUS oil settled up US$1.74, or 2.3 per cent, to US$77.62 a barrel after gaining for the past six weeks, and was at its highest since 2014.\n\"Given the demand picture and the outcome of the Opec meeting, the overall sentiment around crude is bullish,\" said Mr John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital LLC in New York.\nDemand for coal and natural gas has exceeded pre-Covid-19 highs with oil closely trailing, according to energy watchdog, the International Energy Agency. Three-quarters of global energy demand is still met by fossil fuels, with less than a fifth by non-nuclear renewables.\nOpec+, which groups the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) and allies including Russia, has faced pressure from some countries to add back more barrels to the market as demand has recovered faster than expected in some parts of the world.\nFour Opec+ sources told Reuters recently that producers were considering boosting output by more than had already been agreed.\nThe oil price rally has also been fuelled by an even bigger increase in gas prices, which have spiked by 300 per cent, prompting switching to fuel oil and other crude products to generate electricity and for other industrial needs.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":652,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":820524217,"gmtCreate":1633405489594,"gmtModify":1633405489974,"author":{"id":"3582016577975526","authorId":"3582016577975526","name":"ivanlam","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b69aadeaeb7dadd4cee48a1d48771644","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582016577975526","authorIdStr":"3582016577975526"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/820524217","repostId":"2172968917","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1127,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":820987931,"gmtCreate":1633341814036,"gmtModify":1633342030501,"author":{"id":"3582016577975526","authorId":"3582016577975526","name":"ivanlam","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b69aadeaeb7dadd4cee48a1d48771644","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582016577975526","authorIdStr":"3582016577975526"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":16,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/820987931","repostId":"1145326625","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1145326625","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633340927,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1145326625?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-04 17:48","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nike, Under Armour and others face supply problems in Vietnam<blockquote>耐克、安德玛等公司在越南面临供应问题</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1145326625","media":"CNN","summary":"New York (CNN)Surging shopper demand coupled with shipping container shortages and bottlenecks at po","content":"<p>New York (CNN)Surging shopper demand coupled with shipping container shortages and bottlenecks at ports have already triggered tighter supply of products, from cars to shoes.</p><p><blockquote>纽约（CNN）购物者需求激增，加上集装箱短缺和港口瓶颈，已经引发了从汽车到鞋子等产品的供应紧张。</blockquote></p><p> In particular, some of America's biggest sellers of clothing and shoes cite one catalyst that has compounded the pressure: factory closures in Vietnam stemming from a second wave of the coronavirus outbreak there. That's led brands from PacSun to Nike to warn about the effects on their supply.</p><p><blockquote>特别是，美国一些最大的服装和鞋类销售商列举了加剧压力的一个催化剂：越南第二波冠状病毒爆发导致工厂关闭。这导致从PacSun到Nike等品牌警告其供应受到影响。</blockquote></p><p> In late September, Nike (NKE) cut its full-year sales outlook due to supply chain issues, despite its CEO noting strong consumer demand.</p><p><blockquote>9月下旬，耐克(NKE)因供应链问题下调了全年销售预期，尽管其首席执行官指出消费者需求强劲。</blockquote></p><p> Nike makes about three-quarters of its shoes in Southeast Asia, with 51% and 24% of manufacturing in Vietnam and Indonesia respectively.</p><p><blockquote>耐克约四分之三的鞋子在东南亚生产，越南和印度尼西亚分别占51%和24%。</blockquote></p><p> But as the Vietnam government imposed pandemic-related restrictions, including a mandatory shutdown of factories for several weeks from July into September, Nike said it incurred 10 weeks of lost production.</p><p><blockquote>但由于越南政府实施了与大流行相关的限制，包括从7月到9月强制关闭工厂数周，耐克表示，该公司遭受了10周的生产损失。</blockquote></p><p> Even when factories start to reopen, which the company expects to happen in phases beginning in October, ramping up to full production could take several months, Nike's chief financial officer Matthew Friend said in a recent earnings call. Half of Nike's clothing factories in Vietnam are currently closed, company executives said during that call.</p><p><blockquote>耐克首席财务官Matthew Friend在最近的财报看涨期权上表示，即使工厂开始重新开放（该公司预计从10月份开始分阶段重新开放），全面生产也可能需要几个月的时间。耐克公司高管在看涨期权期间表示，目前耐克在越南的一半服装厂已经关闭。</blockquote></p><p> Vietnam accounts for a third of sports brand Under Armour's footwear and clothing production. Under Armour (UA)'s CEO Patrik Frisk said during its most recent earnings call in August that it was closely monitoring impact of factory shutdowns there on its supply chain there, calling it a \"developing situation.\"</p><p><blockquote>越南占运动品牌安德玛鞋类和服装产量的三分之一。Under Armour(UA)首席执行官Patrik Frisk在8月份最近一次财报看涨期权上表示，该公司正在密切关注工厂关闭对其供应链的影响，称其为“发展中的情况”。</blockquote></p><p> Ugg, Coach and Michael Kors have exposure</p><p><blockquote>Ugg、Coach和Michael Kors都有曝光</blockquote></p><p> Vietnam is a crucial supplier to the US in particular for apparel and footwear.</p><p><blockquote>越南是美国的重要供应商，尤其是服装和鞋类。</blockquote></p><p> \"It's a very big partner of the United States. It's our second largest source of apparel and footwear,\" said Steve Lamar, president and CEO of the American Apparel and Footwear Association, an industry group. China is the largest supplier of clothing and shoes, according to the AAFA.</p><p><blockquote>“它是美国非常大的合作伙伴。它是我们服装和鞋类的第二大来源，”行业组织美国服装和鞋类协会的总裁兼首席执行官史蒂夫·拉马尔说。根据AAFA的数据，中国是最大的服装和鞋子供应国。</blockquote></p><p> In July, Vietnam was caught in the throes of a coronavirus outbreak caused by a suspected new variant of the virus, which Vietnam's health minister said led to a fast spread of new infections in the nation's industrial zones.</p><p><blockquote>7月，越南陷入了由疑似病毒新变种引起的冠状病毒爆发的阵痛，越南卫生部长表示，这导致该国工业区新感染病例迅速蔓延。</blockquote></p><p> The government subsequently imposed strict lockdowns and temporarily shut factories there until mid-August, then extended it into September. Some factories are still closed.</p><p><blockquote>政府随后实施了严格的封锁，并暂时关闭了那里的工厂，直到8月中旬，然后延长到9月。一些工厂仍然关闭。</blockquote></p><p> All of this means that production for everything from sneakers and sandals to jeans, dresses, T-shirts, jackets and more is stalled.</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都意味着从运动鞋和凉鞋到牛仔裤、连衣裙、T恤、夹克等各种产品的生产都陷入停滞。</blockquote></p><p> In a research note last month, BITG analyst Camilo Lyon said athletic footwear brands such as Nike and Adidas are most at risk of having serious supply chain disruptions because \"Vietnam has served as a strong manufacturing alternative to China in recent years.\"</p><p><blockquote>BITG分析师卡米洛·里昂(Camilo Lyon)在上个月的一份研究报告中表示，耐克和阿迪达斯等运动鞋品牌面临的供应链严重中断的风险最大，因为“近年来，越南一直是中国的强大制造替代品”。</blockquote></p><p> Other brands that have significant manufacturing exposure to Vietnam, he said, include Ugg maker Deckers Outdoor (DECK), Columbia Sportswear, Coach parent Tapestry (TPR) and Capri Holdings (which owns the Michael Kors brand).</p><p><blockquote>他说，其他在越南拥有大量制造业务的品牌包括Ugg制造商Deckers Outdoor(DECK)、Columbia Sportswear、Coach母公司Tapestry(TPR)和Capri Holdings（拥有Michael Kors品牌）。</blockquote></p><p> Lyon estimates it may take five to six months for factories in Vietnam to be back up and running normally when the lockdown ends. And whenever they do come back on line, he anticipates another issue: staffing.</p><p><blockquote>里昂估计，封锁结束后，越南的工厂可能需要五到六个月的时间才能恢复正常运行。每当他们重新上线时，他都会预料到另一个问题：人员配备。</blockquote></p><p> \"Vietnamese factories will also likely have trouble getting workers to come back to work post-lockdown,\" he said.</p><p><blockquote>“越南工厂也可能很难让工人在封锁后重返工作岗位，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Teen retailer PacSun is expecting an impact to the holiday season.</p><p><blockquote>青少年零售商PacSun预计这将对假期产生影响。</blockquote></p><p> Brieane Olson, president of PacSun, said in an interview in August with CNNBusiness that about 10% of its goods are sourced from Vietnam.</p><p><blockquote>PacSun总裁Brieane Olson在8月份接受CNNBusiness采访时表示，其约10%的商品来自越南。</blockquote></p><p> Olson said the retailer was already dealing with a two-to-four week delay for its back-to-school inventory this year because of the ongoing global supply chain delays.</p><p><blockquote>奥尔森表示，由于全球供应链持续延迟，该零售商今年的返校库存已经面临两到四周的延迟。</blockquote></p><p> Now, she said, new products for the winter and holiday season is likely to also face another four-week delay, she said, making it a challenge to get new fashions and styles in jeans, tops, sweaters and sweatshirts into stores in a timely manner.</p><p><blockquote>她说，现在，冬季和假日季的新产品也可能面临另外四周的延迟，这使得牛仔裤、上衣、毛衣和运动衫的新时尚和款式及时进入商店成为一项挑战。</blockquote></p><p> And there's an additional effect on the consumer, Olson said: Having less product means the retailer will pull back on discounts \"because there is no need for it,\" she said.</p><p><blockquote>奥尔森说，这对消费者还有额外的影响：产品减少意味着零售商将取消折扣，“因为没有必要”。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNike, Under Armour and others face supply problems in Vietnam<blockquote>耐克、安德玛等公司在越南面临供应问题</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">CNN</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-04 17:48</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>New York (CNN)Surging shopper demand coupled with shipping container shortages and bottlenecks at ports have already triggered tighter supply of products, from cars to shoes.</p><p><blockquote>纽约（CNN）购物者需求激增，加上集装箱短缺和港口瓶颈，已经引发了从汽车到鞋子等产品的供应紧张。</blockquote></p><p> In particular, some of America's biggest sellers of clothing and shoes cite one catalyst that has compounded the pressure: factory closures in Vietnam stemming from a second wave of the coronavirus outbreak there. That's led brands from PacSun to Nike to warn about the effects on their supply.</p><p><blockquote>特别是，美国一些最大的服装和鞋类销售商列举了加剧压力的一个催化剂：越南第二波冠状病毒爆发导致工厂关闭。这导致从PacSun到Nike等品牌警告其供应受到影响。</blockquote></p><p> In late September, Nike (NKE) cut its full-year sales outlook due to supply chain issues, despite its CEO noting strong consumer demand.</p><p><blockquote>9月下旬，耐克(NKE)因供应链问题下调了全年销售预期，尽管其首席执行官指出消费者需求强劲。</blockquote></p><p> Nike makes about three-quarters of its shoes in Southeast Asia, with 51% and 24% of manufacturing in Vietnam and Indonesia respectively.</p><p><blockquote>耐克约四分之三的鞋子在东南亚生产，越南和印度尼西亚分别占51%和24%。</blockquote></p><p> But as the Vietnam government imposed pandemic-related restrictions, including a mandatory shutdown of factories for several weeks from July into September, Nike said it incurred 10 weeks of lost production.</p><p><blockquote>但由于越南政府实施了与大流行相关的限制，包括从7月到9月强制关闭工厂数周，耐克表示，该公司遭受了10周的生产损失。</blockquote></p><p> Even when factories start to reopen, which the company expects to happen in phases beginning in October, ramping up to full production could take several months, Nike's chief financial officer Matthew Friend said in a recent earnings call. Half of Nike's clothing factories in Vietnam are currently closed, company executives said during that call.</p><p><blockquote>耐克首席财务官Matthew Friend在最近的财报看涨期权上表示，即使工厂开始重新开放（该公司预计从10月份开始分阶段重新开放），全面生产也可能需要几个月的时间。耐克公司高管在看涨期权期间表示，目前耐克在越南的一半服装厂已经关闭。</blockquote></p><p> Vietnam accounts for a third of sports brand Under Armour's footwear and clothing production. Under Armour (UA)'s CEO Patrik Frisk said during its most recent earnings call in August that it was closely monitoring impact of factory shutdowns there on its supply chain there, calling it a \"developing situation.\"</p><p><blockquote>越南占运动品牌安德玛鞋类和服装产量的三分之一。Under Armour(UA)首席执行官Patrik Frisk在8月份最近一次财报看涨期权上表示，该公司正在密切关注工厂关闭对其供应链的影响，称其为“发展中的情况”。</blockquote></p><p> Ugg, Coach and Michael Kors have exposure</p><p><blockquote>Ugg、Coach和Michael Kors都有曝光</blockquote></p><p> Vietnam is a crucial supplier to the US in particular for apparel and footwear.</p><p><blockquote>越南是美国的重要供应商，尤其是服装和鞋类。</blockquote></p><p> \"It's a very big partner of the United States. It's our second largest source of apparel and footwear,\" said Steve Lamar, president and CEO of the American Apparel and Footwear Association, an industry group. China is the largest supplier of clothing and shoes, according to the AAFA.</p><p><blockquote>“它是美国非常大的合作伙伴。它是我们服装和鞋类的第二大来源，”行业组织美国服装和鞋类协会的总裁兼首席执行官史蒂夫·拉马尔说。根据AAFA的数据，中国是最大的服装和鞋子供应国。</blockquote></p><p> In July, Vietnam was caught in the throes of a coronavirus outbreak caused by a suspected new variant of the virus, which Vietnam's health minister said led to a fast spread of new infections in the nation's industrial zones.</p><p><blockquote>7月，越南陷入了由疑似病毒新变种引起的冠状病毒爆发的阵痛，越南卫生部长表示，这导致该国工业区新感染病例迅速蔓延。</blockquote></p><p> The government subsequently imposed strict lockdowns and temporarily shut factories there until mid-August, then extended it into September. Some factories are still closed.</p><p><blockquote>政府随后实施了严格的封锁，并暂时关闭了那里的工厂，直到8月中旬，然后延长到9月。一些工厂仍然关闭。</blockquote></p><p> All of this means that production for everything from sneakers and sandals to jeans, dresses, T-shirts, jackets and more is stalled.</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都意味着从运动鞋和凉鞋到牛仔裤、连衣裙、T恤、夹克等各种产品的生产都陷入停滞。</blockquote></p><p> In a research note last month, BITG analyst Camilo Lyon said athletic footwear brands such as Nike and Adidas are most at risk of having serious supply chain disruptions because \"Vietnam has served as a strong manufacturing alternative to China in recent years.\"</p><p><blockquote>BITG分析师卡米洛·里昂(Camilo Lyon)在上个月的一份研究报告中表示，耐克和阿迪达斯等运动鞋品牌面临的供应链严重中断的风险最大，因为“近年来，越南一直是中国的强大制造替代品”。</blockquote></p><p> Other brands that have significant manufacturing exposure to Vietnam, he said, include Ugg maker Deckers Outdoor (DECK), Columbia Sportswear, Coach parent Tapestry (TPR) and Capri Holdings (which owns the Michael Kors brand).</p><p><blockquote>他说，其他在越南拥有大量制造业务的品牌包括Ugg制造商Deckers Outdoor(DECK)、Columbia Sportswear、Coach母公司Tapestry(TPR)和Capri Holdings（拥有Michael Kors品牌）。</blockquote></p><p> Lyon estimates it may take five to six months for factories in Vietnam to be back up and running normally when the lockdown ends. And whenever they do come back on line, he anticipates another issue: staffing.</p><p><blockquote>里昂估计，封锁结束后，越南的工厂可能需要五到六个月的时间才能恢复正常运行。每当他们重新上线时，他都会预料到另一个问题：人员配备。</blockquote></p><p> \"Vietnamese factories will also likely have trouble getting workers to come back to work post-lockdown,\" he said.</p><p><blockquote>“越南工厂也可能很难让工人在封锁后重返工作岗位，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Teen retailer PacSun is expecting an impact to the holiday season.</p><p><blockquote>青少年零售商PacSun预计这将对假期产生影响。</blockquote></p><p> Brieane Olson, president of PacSun, said in an interview in August with CNNBusiness that about 10% of its goods are sourced from Vietnam.</p><p><blockquote>PacSun总裁Brieane Olson在8月份接受CNNBusiness采访时表示，其约10%的商品来自越南。</blockquote></p><p> Olson said the retailer was already dealing with a two-to-four week delay for its back-to-school inventory this year because of the ongoing global supply chain delays.</p><p><blockquote>奥尔森表示，由于全球供应链持续延迟，该零售商今年的返校库存已经面临两到四周的延迟。</blockquote></p><p> Now, she said, new products for the winter and holiday season is likely to also face another four-week delay, she said, making it a challenge to get new fashions and styles in jeans, tops, sweaters and sweatshirts into stores in a timely manner.</p><p><blockquote>她说，现在，冬季和假日季的新产品也可能面临另外四周的延迟，这使得牛仔裤、上衣、毛衣和运动衫的新时尚和款式及时进入商店成为一项挑战。</blockquote></p><p> And there's an additional effect on the consumer, Olson said: Having less product means the retailer will pull back on discounts \"because there is no need for it,\" she said.</p><p><blockquote>奥尔森说，这对消费者还有额外的影响：产品减少意味着零售商将取消折扣，“因为没有必要”。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/02/business/vietnam-supply-chain-disruptions/index.html\">CNN</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NKE":"耐克","TPR":"Tapestry Inc.","DECK":"Deckers Outdoor Corporation","CPRI":"Capri Holdings Ltd"},"source_url":"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/02/business/vietnam-supply-chain-disruptions/index.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1145326625","content_text":"New York (CNN)Surging shopper demand coupled with shipping container shortages and bottlenecks at ports have already triggered tighter supply of products, from cars to shoes.\nIn particular, some of America's biggest sellers of clothing and shoes cite one catalyst that has compounded the pressure: factory closures in Vietnam stemming from a second wave of the coronavirus outbreak there. That's led brands from PacSun to Nike to warn about the effects on their supply.\nIn late September, Nike (NKE) cut its full-year sales outlook due to supply chain issues, despite its CEO noting strong consumer demand.\nNike makes about three-quarters of its shoes in Southeast Asia, with 51% and 24% of manufacturing in Vietnam and Indonesia respectively.\nBut as the Vietnam government imposed pandemic-related restrictions, including a mandatory shutdown of factories for several weeks from July into September, Nike said it incurred 10 weeks of lost production.\nEven when factories start to reopen, which the company expects to happen in phases beginning in October, ramping up to full production could take several months, Nike's chief financial officer Matthew Friend said in a recent earnings call. Half of Nike's clothing factories in Vietnam are currently closed, company executives said during that call.\nVietnam accounts for a third of sports brand Under Armour's footwear and clothing production. Under Armour (UA)'s CEO Patrik Frisk said during its most recent earnings call in August that it was closely monitoring impact of factory shutdowns there on its supply chain there, calling it a \"developing situation.\"\nUgg, Coach and Michael Kors have exposure\nVietnam is a crucial supplier to the US in particular for apparel and footwear.\n\"It's a very big partner of the United States. It's our second largest source of apparel and footwear,\" said Steve Lamar, president and CEO of the American Apparel and Footwear Association, an industry group. China is the largest supplier of clothing and shoes, according to the AAFA.\nIn July, Vietnam was caught in the throes of a coronavirus outbreak caused by a suspected new variant of the virus, which Vietnam's health minister said led to a fast spread of new infections in the nation's industrial zones.\nThe government subsequently imposed strict lockdowns and temporarily shut factories there until mid-August, then extended it into September. Some factories are still closed.\nAll of this means that production for everything from sneakers and sandals to jeans, dresses, T-shirts, jackets and more is stalled.\nIn a research note last month, BITG analyst Camilo Lyon said athletic footwear brands such as Nike and Adidas are most at risk of having serious supply chain disruptions because \"Vietnam has served as a strong manufacturing alternative to China in recent years.\"\nOther brands that have significant manufacturing exposure to Vietnam, he said, include Ugg maker Deckers Outdoor (DECK), Columbia Sportswear, Coach parent Tapestry (TPR) and Capri Holdings (which owns the Michael Kors brand).\nLyon estimates it may take five to six months for factories in Vietnam to be back up and running normally when the lockdown ends. And whenever they do come back on line, he anticipates another issue: staffing.\n\"Vietnamese factories will also likely have trouble getting workers to come back to work post-lockdown,\" he said.\nTeen retailer PacSun is expecting an impact to the holiday season.\nBrieane Olson, president of PacSun, said in an interview in August with CNNBusiness that about 10% of its goods are sourced from Vietnam.\nOlson said the retailer was already dealing with a two-to-four week delay for its back-to-school inventory this year because of the ongoing global supply chain delays.\nNow, she said, new products for the winter and holiday season is likely to also face another four-week delay, she said, making it a challenge to get new fashions and styles in jeans, tops, sweaters and sweatshirts into stores in a timely manner.\nAnd there's an additional effect on the consumer, Olson said: Having less product means the retailer will pull back on discounts \"because there is no need for it,\" she said.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CPRI":0.9,"TPR":0.9,"DECK":0.9,"NKE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":748,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":867149455,"gmtCreate":1633230209399,"gmtModify":1633230384496,"author":{"id":"3582016577975526","authorId":"3582016577975526","name":"ivanlam","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b69aadeaeb7dadd4cee48a1d48771644","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582016577975526","authorIdStr":"3582016577975526"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":16,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/867149455","repostId":"2172961873","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":715,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":168793967,"gmtCreate":1623982925459,"gmtModify":1634024743317,"author":{"id":"3582016577975526","authorId":"3582016577975526","name":"ivanlam","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b69aadeaeb7dadd4cee48a1d48771644","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582016577975526","authorIdStr":"3582016577975526"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$</a>The Motley FoolHere's Why NVIDIA Stock Popped TodaySoftware could be a powerful new growth driver for the semiconductor titan.Joe Tenebruso(TMFGuardian)Jun 17, 2021 at 5:41PMAuthor BioWhat happened Shares of NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) rose 4.8% on Thursday, following an intriguing new analyst report. So what After speaking with NVIDIA's chief financial officer, Colette Kress, Jefferies analyst Mark Lipacis repeated his buy rating on the chipmaker's stock and boosted his price forecast from $740 to a Wall Street high of $854.Lipacis believes investors are underestimating NVIDIA's opportunity to license its new data center software. Yet that could change, Lipacis posits, once the company begins to report its software sales as a separate li","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$</a>The Motley FoolHere's Why NVIDIA Stock Popped TodaySoftware could be a powerful new growth driver for the semiconductor titan.Joe Tenebruso(TMFGuardian)Jun 17, 2021 at 5:41PMAuthor BioWhat happened Shares of NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) rose 4.8% on Thursday, following an intriguing new analyst report. So what After speaking with NVIDIA's chief financial officer, Colette Kress, Jefferies analyst Mark Lipacis repeated his buy rating on the chipmaker's stock and boosted his price forecast from $740 to a Wall Street high of $854.Lipacis believes investors are underestimating NVIDIA's opportunity to license its new data center software. Yet that could change, Lipacis posits, once the company begins to report its software sales as a separate li","text":"$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$The Motley FoolHere's Why NVIDIA Stock Popped TodaySoftware could be a powerful new growth driver for the semiconductor titan.Joe Tenebruso(TMFGuardian)Jun 17, 2021 at 5:41PMAuthor BioWhat happened Shares of NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) rose 4.8% on Thursday, following an intriguing new analyst report. So what After speaking with NVIDIA's chief financial officer, Colette Kress, Jefferies analyst Mark Lipacis repeated his buy rating on the chipmaker's stock and boosted his price forecast from $740 to a Wall Street high of $854.Lipacis believes investors are underestimating NVIDIA's opportunity to license its new data center software. Yet that could change, Lipacis posits, once the company begins to report its software sales as a separate li","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":40,"repostSize":14,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/168793967","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1056,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":880974677,"gmtCreate":1631015865499,"gmtModify":1631891709766,"author":{"id":"3582016577975526","authorId":"3582016577975526","name":"ivanlam","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b69aadeaeb7dadd4cee48a1d48771644","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582016577975526","authorIdStr":"3582016577975526"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":16,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/880974677","repostId":"1130130857","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1130130857","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631007146,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1130130857?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-07 17:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Strategists Say the Stock Market Could Struggle This Fall. What to Buy Now?<blockquote>策略师表示，今年秋天股市可能会陷入困境。现在买什么？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130130857","media":"Barron's","summary":"What a year this has been for the markets!Fueled by a torrent of monetary and fiscal stimulus, economic and earnings growth, and  a mostly receding pandemic, theS&P 500stock index has rallied 20%, notching seven straight months of gains and more than 50 highs along the way. And that’s on top of last year’s 68% rebound from the market’s March 2020 lows.Tailwinds remain in place, but headwinds now loom that could slow stocks’ advance. Stimulus spending has peaked, and economic and corporate-earnin","content":"<p>What a year this has been for the markets! Fueled by a torrent of monetary and fiscal stimulus, economic and earnings growth, and (until recently) a mostly receding pandemic, theS&amp;P 500stock index has rallied 20%, notching seven straight months of gains and more than 50 highs along the way. And that’s on top of last year’s 68% rebound from the market’s March 2020 lows.</p><p><blockquote>对于市场来说，这是多么美好的一年啊！在货币和财政刺激、经济和盈利增长以及（直到最近）疫情基本消退的推动下，标准普尔500股票指数已上涨20%，连续七个月上涨，并创下50多个高点。除此之外，去年市场从2020年3月的低点反弹了68%。</blockquote></p><p> Tailwinds remain in place, but headwinds now loom that could slow stocks’ advance. Stimulus spending has peaked, and economic and corporate-earnings growth are likely to decelerate through the end of the year. What’s more, theFederal Reserve has all but promised to start tapering its bond buyingin coming months, and the Biden administration has proposed hiking corporate and personal tax rates. None of this is apt to sit well with holders of increasingly pricey shares.</p><p><blockquote>顺风依然存在，但逆风现在迫在眉睫，可能会减缓股市的上涨。刺激支出已经见顶，经济和企业盈利增长可能会在今年年底放缓。此外，美联储几乎承诺在未来几个月开始缩减债券购买规模，拜登政府也提议提高企业和个人税率。这些都不会让股价越来越贵的持有者满意。</blockquote></p><p> In other words,brace for a volatile fallin which conflicting forces buffet stocks, bonds, and investors. “The everything rally is behind us,” says Saira Malik, chief investment officer of global equities at Nuveen. “It’s not going to be a sharply rising economic tide that lifts all boats from here.”</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，要做好迎接波动性下跌的准备，这种冲突迫使巴菲特股票、债券和投资者。Nuveen全球股票首席投资官Saira Malik表示：“一切反弹都已经过去。”“这不会是一场急剧上升的经济浪潮，将所有船只从这里抬起。”</blockquote></p><p> That’s the general consensus among the six market strategists and chief investment officers whom<i>Barron’s</i>recently consulted. All see the S&amp;P 500 ending the year near Thursday’s close of 4536. Their average target: 4585.</p><p><blockquote>这是六位市场策略师和首席投资官的普遍共识<i>巴伦周刊</i>最近咨询过。所有人都认为标普500将在周四收盘价4536点附近结束今年。他们的平均目标是：4585。</blockquote></p><p> Next year’s gains look muted, as well, relative to recent trends. The group expects the S&amp;P 500 to tack on another 6% in 2022, rising to about 4800.</p><p><blockquote>相对于最近的趋势，明年的涨幅看起来也很微弱。该集团预计2022年标普500将再增加6%，升至约4800。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb61c7b74b9b0f18a019afb4ac44ad59\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">With stocks trading for about 21 times the coming year’s expected earnings,bonds yielding little, and cash yielding less than nothing after accounting for inflation, investors face tough asset-allocation decisions. In place of the “everything rally,” which lifted fast-growing tech stocks, no-growth meme stocks, and the Dogecoins of the digital world, our market watchers recommend focusing on “quality” investments. In equities, that means shares of businesses with solid balance sheets, expanding profit margins, and ample and recurring free cash flow. Even if the averages do little in coming months, these stocks are likely to shine.</p><p><blockquote>由于股票交易价格约为来年预期收益的21倍，债券收益率很低，考虑通货膨胀后现金收益率低于零，投资者面临着艰难的资产配置决策。我们的市场观察人士建议关注“优质”投资，而不是提振快速增长的科技股、无增长的模因股和数字世界的狗狗币的“一切反弹”。在股票方面，这意味着拥有稳健的资产负债表、不断扩大的利润率以及充足且经常性的自由现金流的企业的股票。即使未来几个月平均指数表现不大，这些股票也可能会大放异彩。</blockquote></p><p> The stock market’s massive rally in the past year was a gift of sorts from the Federal Reserve, which flooded the financial system with money to stave off theeconomic damage wrought by the Covid pandemic. Since March 2020, the U.S. central bank has been buying a combined $120 billion a month of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, while keeping its benchmark federal-funds rate target at 0% to 0.25%. These moves have depressed bond yields and pushed investors into riskier assets, including stocks.</p><p><blockquote>过去一年股市的大幅上涨是美联储的一份礼物，美联储向金融体系注入了大量资金，以避免新冠疫情造成的经济损失。自2020年3月以来，美联储每月购买总计1200亿美元的美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券，同时将基准联邦基金利率目标维持在0%至0.25%。这些举措压低了债券收益率，并推动投资者进入包括股票在内的风险较高的资产。</blockquote></p><p> Fed Chairman Jerome <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">Powell</a> has said that the central bank might begin to wind down, or taper, its emergency asset purchases sometime in the coming quarters, a move that could roil risk assets of all sorts. “For us, it’s very simple: Tapering is tightening,” says Mike Wilson, chief investment officer and chief U.S. equity strategist atMorgan Stanley.“It’s the first step away from maximum accommodation [by the Fed]. They’re being very calculated about it this time, but the bottom line is that it should have a negative effect on equity valuations.”</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">鲍威尔</a>曾表示，央行可能会在未来几个季度的某个时候开始逐步减少或缩减紧急资产购买，此举可能会扰乱各类风险资产。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)首席投资官兼首席美国股票策略师威尔逊(Mike Wilson)表示：“对我们来说，缩减规模很简单：缩减规模就是紧缩。这是（美联储）距离最大限度宽松政策迈出的第一步。他们这次对此非常谨慎，但底线是，这应该会对股票估值产生负面影响。”</blockquote></p><p> The government’s stimulus spending, too, has peaked, the strategists note. Supplemental federal unemployment benefits of $300 a week expire as of Sept. 6. Although Congress seems likely to pass a bipartisan infrastructure bill this fall, the near-term economic impact will pale in comparison to the multiple rounds of stimulus introduced since March 2020.</p><p><blockquote>策略师指出，政府的刺激支出也已见顶。每周300美元的补充联邦失业救济金将于9月6日到期。尽管国会似乎有可能在今年秋天通过一项两党基础设施法案，但与2020年3月以来推出的多轮刺激措施相比，近期的经济影响将相形见绌。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2cb76c498c1c4c980139e3d0514c261\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The bill includes about $550 billion in new spending—a fraction of the trillions authorized by previous laws—and it will be spread out over many years. The short-term boost that infrastructure stimulus will give to consumer spending, which accounts for almost 70% of U.S. growth domestic product, won’t come close to what the economy saw after millions of Americans received checks from the government this past year.</p><p><blockquote>该法案包括约5500亿美元的新支出——只是之前法律授权的数万亿美元的一小部分——并且将分散在许多年内。基础设施刺激措施将给消费者支出带来的短期提振，占美国国内生产总值增长的近70%，但不会接近去年数百万美国人收到政府支票后的经济增长。</blockquote></p><p> A budget bill approved by Democrats only should follow the infrastructure bill, and include spending to support Medicare expansion, child-care funding, free community-college tuition, public housing, and climate-related measures, among other party priorities. Congress could vote to lift taxes on corporations and high-earning individuals to offset that spending—another near-term risk to the market.</p><p><blockquote>仅由民主党批准的预算法案应该遵循基础设施法案，并包括支持医疗保险扩张、儿童保育资金、免费社区大学学费、公共住房和气候相关措施以及其他政党优先事项的支出。国会可能会投票提高企业和高收入个人的税收，以抵消这些支出——这是市场面临的另一个近期风险。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6693da658db16059fc99e08a7531675f\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Other politically charged issues likewise could derail equities this fall. Congress needs to pass a debt-ceiling increase to fund the government, and a stop-gap spending bill later this month to avoid a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">Washington</a> shutdown in October.</p><p><blockquote>今年秋天，其他带有政治色彩的问题同样可能会让股市脱轨。国会需要通过提高债务上限来为政府提供资金，并在本月晚些时候通过一项权宜之计的支出法案来避免<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">华盛顿</a>10月停工。</blockquote></p><p> For now, our market experts are relatively sanguine about the economic impact of the Delta variant of Covid-19. As long as vaccines remain effective in minimizing severe infections that lead to hospitalizations and deaths, the negative effects of the current Covid wave will be limited largely to the travel industry and movie theaters, they say. Wall Street’s base case for the market doesn’t include a renewed wave of lockdowns that would undermine economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>目前，我们的市场专家对Covid-19德尔塔变异毒株的经济影响相对乐观。他们说，只要疫苗在最大限度地减少导致住院和死亡的严重感染方面仍然有效，当前Covid浪潮的负面影响将主要限于旅游业和电影院。华尔街对市场的基本假设不包括会破坏经济增长的新一波封锁。</blockquote></p><p> Inflation has been a hot topic at the Fed and among investors, partly because it has been running so hot of late. The U.S. consumer price index rose at an annualized 5.4% in both June and July—a spike the Fed calls transitory, although others aren’t so sure. The strategists are taking Powell’s side of the argument; they expect inflation to fall significantly next year. Their forecasts fall between 2.5% and 3.5%, which they consider manageable for consumers and companies, and an acceptable side effect of rapid economic growth. An inflation rate above 2.5%, however, combined with Fed tapering, would mean that now ultralow bond yields should rise.</p><p><blockquote>通胀一直是美联储和投资者的热门话题，部分原因是通胀最近非常火爆。6月和7月，美国消费者价格指数年化涨幅为5.4%，这是美联储评级暂时性的飙升，尽管其他人不太确定。策略师们站在鲍威尔一边。他们预计明年通胀将大幅下降。他们的预测在2.5%至3.5%之间，他们认为这对消费者和公司来说是可控的，也是经济快速增长的可接受的副作用。然而，通胀率高于2.5%，加上美联储缩减规模，意味着目前超低的债券收益率应该会上升。</blockquote></p><p> “We think inflation will continue to run hotter than it has since the financial crisis, but it’s hard for us to see inflation much over 2.5% once many of the reopening-related pressures start to dissipate,” says Michael Fredericks, head of income investing for theBlackRockMulti-Asset Strategies Group. “So bond yields do need to move up, but that will happen gradually.”</p><p><blockquote>收益投资主管迈克尔·弗雷德里克斯(Michael Fredericks)表示：“我们认为通胀将继续比金融危机以来更高，但一旦许多与重新开放相关的压力开始消散，我们很难看到通胀率远高于2.5%。”贝莱德多资产策略集团。“因此债券收益率确实需要上升，但这将逐渐发生。”</blockquote></p><p> The strategists see the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbing to around 1.65% by year end. That’s about 35 basis points—or hundredths of a percentage point—above current levels, but below the 1.75% that the yield reached at its March 2021 highs. By next year, the 10-year Treasury could yield 2%, the group says. Those aren’t big moves in absolute terms, but they’re meaningful for&nbsp;the bond market—and could be even more so for stocks.</p><p><blockquote>策略师预计，到年底，10年期美国国债收益率将攀升至1.65%左右。这比当前水平高出约35个基点（即百分之几个百分点），但低于2021年3月收益率高点时达到的1.75%。该组织表示，到明年，10年期国债收益率可能达到2%。从绝对值来看，这些举措并不是很大，但对债券市场来说意义重大，对股票来说可能更是如此。</blockquote></p><p> Rising yields tend to weigh on stock valuations for two reasons. Higher-yielding bonds offer competition to stocks, and companies’ future earnings are worthless in the present when discounting them at a higher rate. Still, a 10-year yield around 2% won’t be enough to knock stock valuations down to pre-Covid levels. Even if yields climb, market strategists see the price/earnings multiple of the S&amp;P 500 holding well above its 30-year average of 16 times forward earnings. The index’s forward P/E topped 23 last fall.</p><p><blockquote>收益率上升往往会打压股票估值，原因有二。高收益债券提供了与股票的竞争，当以更高的利率贴现时，公司的未来收益在目前毫无价值。尽管如此，2%左右的10年期国债收益率仍不足以将股票估值降至新冠疫情爆发前的水平。即使收益率攀升，市场策略师认为标普500的市盈率仍远高于预期市盈率16倍的30年平均水平。去年秋天，该指数的远期市盈率突破23。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e08d24cb421d7cc13debd76a9c6fea01\" tg-width=\"660\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> As long as 10-year Treasury yields stay in the 2% range, the S&amp;P 500 should be able to command a forward P/E in the high teens, strategists say. A return to the 16-times long-term average isn’t in the cards until there is more pressure from much higher yields—or something else that causes stocks to fall.</p><p><blockquote>策略师表示，只要10年期国债收益率保持在2%的范围内，标普500的远期市盈率就应该能够在十几岁左右。除非收益率高得多或其他导致股市下跌的因素带来更大压力，否则不可能回到16倍的长期平均水平。</blockquote></p><p> If yields surge past 2% or 2.25%, investors could start to question equity valuations more seriously, says&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STT\">State</a> Street’schief portfolio strategist, Gaurav Mallik: “We haven’t seen [the 10-year yield] above 2% for some time now, so that’s an important sentiment level for investors.”</p><p><blockquote>表示，如果收益率飙升超过2%或2.25%，投资者可能会开始更严重地质疑股票估值<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STT\">国家</a>Street首席投资组合策略师Gaurav Mallik：“我们已经有一段时间没有看到（10年期国债收益率）超过2%了，因此这对投资者来说是一个重要的情绪水平。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93ff6490069ab5dc1b4057f1ff7966f3\" tg-width=\"664\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Wilson is more concerned, noting that the stock market’s valuation risk is asymmetric: “It’s very unlikely that multiples are going to go up, and there’s a good chance that they go down more than 10% given the deceleration in growth and where we are in the cycle,” he says</p><p><blockquote>威尔逊更担心，他指出，股市的估值风险是不对称的：“市盈率不太可能上升，考虑到增长放缓和我们所处的位置，市盈率很有可能下降10%以上。在周期中，”他说</blockquote></p><p> If 16 to 23 times forward earnings is the range, he adds, “you’re already at the very high end of that. There’s more potential risk than reward.”</p><p><blockquote>他补充道，如果预期市盈率为16至23倍，“你已经处于这个范围的很高端。潜在风险大于回报。”</blockquote></p><p> Some P/E-multiple compression is baked into all six strategists’ forecasts, heaping greater importance on the path of profit growth. On average, the strategists expect S&amp;P 500 earnings to jump 46% this year, to about $204, after last year’s earnings depression. That could be followed by a more normalized gain of 9% in 2022, to about $222.50.</p><p><blockquote>所有六位策略师的预测都包含了一些市盈率倍数的压缩，这对利润增长路径变得更加重要。平均而言，策略师预计，继去年的盈利低迷之后，标普500今年的盈利将增长46%，至204美元左右。随后，2022年可能会上涨9%，达到约222.50美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> A potential headwind would be a higher federal corporate-tax rate in 2022. The details of Democrats’ spending and taxation plans will be worked out in the coming weeks, and investors can expect to hear a lot more about potential tax increases. Several strategists see a 25% federal rate on corporate profits as a likely compromise figure, above the 21% in place since 2018, but below the 28% sought by the Biden administration.</p><p><blockquote>一个潜在的阻力是2022年联邦企业税率上升。民主党支出和税收计划的细节将在未来几周内制定出来，投资者可以期待听到更多有关潜在增税的消息。几位策略师认为，25%的联邦企业利润税率可能是一个妥协数字，高于2018年以来实施的21%，但低于拜登政府寻求的28%。</blockquote></p><p> An increase of that magnitude would shave about 5% off S&amp;P 500 earnings next year. The index could drop by a similar amount as the passage of the Democrats’ reconciliation bill nears this fall, but the impact should be limited to that initial correction. As with the tax cuts in December 2017, the change should be a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>-time event for the market, some strategists predict.</p><p><blockquote>如此幅度的增长将使标普500明年的盈利减少约5%。随着今年秋天民主党和解法案的通过，该指数可能会下跌类似的幅度，但影响应该仅限于最初的调整。与2017年12月的减税一样，这一变化应该是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>——一些策略师预测，市场的时间事件。</blockquote></p><p> These concerns aside, investors shouldn’t miss the bigger picture: The U.S. economy is in good shape and growing robustly. The strategists expect gross domestic product to rise 6.3% this year and about 4% in 2022. “The cyclical uplift and above-trend growth will continue at least through 2022, and we want to be biased toward assets that have that exposure,” says Mallik.</p><p><blockquote>抛开这些担忧不谈，投资者不应错过更大的图景：美国经济状况良好，增长强劲。策略师预计今年国内生产总值将增长6.3%，2022年将增长约4%。Mallik表示：“周期性上涨和高于趋势的增长将至少持续到2022年，我们希望偏向于具有这种风险的资产。”</blockquote></p><p>   “We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next. When GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”— Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets  The State Street strategist recommends overweighting materials, financials, and technology in investment portfolios. That approach includes both economically sensitive companies, such as banks and miners, and steady growers in the tech sector.</p><p><blockquote>“今明两年我们的经济将会火爆。当GDP增长高于平均水平时，价值会超过增长，周期性会超过防御性。”—Lori Calvasina，加拿大皇家银行资本市场道富策略师建议在投资组合中增持材料、金融和科技股。这种方法既包括银行和矿业公司等对经济敏感的公司，也包括科技行业的稳定增长者。</blockquote></p><p> RBC Capital Markets’ head of U.S. equity strategy, Lori Calvasina, likewise takes a barbell approach, with both cyclical and growth exposure. Her preferred sectors are energy, financials, and technology.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)美国股票策略主管洛里·卡尔瓦西纳(Lori Calvasina)同样采取杠铃法，同时投资周期性和成长性。她最喜欢的行业是能源、金融和技术。</blockquote></p><p> “Valuations are still a lot more attractive in financials and energy than growth [sectors such as technology or consumer discretionary,]” Calvasina says. “The catalyst in the near term is getting out of the current Covid wave... We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next, and traditionally when GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”</p><p><blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳表示：“金融和能源行业的估值仍然比增长行业（科技或非必需消费品等行业）更具吸引力。”“近期的催化剂是摆脱当前的新冠疫情浪潮……今年和明年我们将迎来经济火爆，传统上，当GDP增长高于平均水平时，价值会跑赢增长，周期性会跑赢防御性。”</blockquote></p><p> But the focus on quality will be pivotal, especially moving into the second half of 2022. That’s when the Fed is likely to hike interest rates for the first time in this cycle. By 2023, the economy could return to pre-Covid growth on the order of 2%.</p><p><blockquote>但对质量的关注将是关键，尤其是进入2022年下半年。届时美联储可能会在本周期内首次加息。到2023年，经济可能会恢复到新冠疫情前2%左右的增长。</blockquote></p><p> “The historical playbook is that coming out of a recession, you tend to see low-quality outperformance that lasts about a year, then leadership flips back to high quality,” Calvasina says. “But that transition from low quality back to high quality tends to be very bumpy.”</p><p><blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳表示：“历史上的剧本是，走出衰退后，你往往会看到持续一年左右的低质量优异表现，然后领导力又会恢复到高质量。”“但从低质量回到高质量的转变往往非常坎坷。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Shopping List for Fall</b></p><p><blockquote><b>秋季购物清单</b></blockquote></p><p> Most strategists favor a combination of economically sensitive stocks and steady growers, including tech shares. Financials should do well, particularly if bond yields rise.</p><p><blockquote>大多数策略师青睐对经济敏感的股票和稳定增长的股票（包括科技股）的组合。金融股应该会表现良好，特别是如果债券收益率上升的话。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a54c4bd114c1a5f7f700d1fc14d30d8e\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"230\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Although stocks with quality attributes have outperformed the market this summer, according to a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a> analysis, the quality factor has lagged since positive vaccine news was first reported last November.</p><p><blockquote>尽管今年夏天具有质量属性的股票表现优于大盘，但根据一家<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">贝莱德</a>分析，自去年11月首次报道疫苗正面消息以来，质量因素一直滞后。</blockquote></p><p> “We’re moving into a mid-cycle environment, when underlying economic growth remains strong but momentum begins to decelerate,” BlackRock’s Fredericks says. “Our research shows that quality stocks perform particularly well in such a period.”</p><p><blockquote>贝莱德的弗雷德里克斯表示：“我们正在进入周期中期环境，基本经济增长仍然强劲，但势头开始减速。”“我们的研究表明，优质股票在这样的时期表现尤其出色。”</blockquote></p><p> He recommends overweighting profitable technology companies; financials, including banks, and consumer staples and industrials with those quality characteristics.</p><p><blockquote>他建议增持盈利的科技公司；金融，包括银行，以及具有这些质量特征的消费品和工业。</blockquote></p><p> For <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a>’s head of equity strategy, Christopher Harvey, a mix of post-pandemic beneficiaries and defensive exposure is the way to go. He constructed a basket of stocks with lower-than-average volatility—which should outperform during periods of market uncertainty or stress this fall—and high “Covid beta,” or sensitivity to good or bad news about the pandemic. One requirement; The stocks had to be rated the equivalent of Buy by Wells Fargo’s equity analysts.</p><p><blockquote>为了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">富国银行</a>股票策略主管克里斯托弗·哈维(Christopher Harvey)表示，大流行后受益者和防御性敞口的结合才是正确的选择。他构建了一篮子波动性低于平均水平的股票——在今年秋季市场不确定性或压力时期，这些股票应该会跑赢大盘——并且“新冠贝塔值”较高，即对有关大流行的好消息或坏消息的敏感性。一个要求；富国银行的股票分析师必须将这些股票评级为“买入”。</blockquote></p><p> “There’s near-term economic uncertainty, interest-rate uncertainty, and Covid risk, and generally we’re in a seasonally weaker part of the year around September,” says Harvey. “If we can balance low vol and high Covid beta, we can mitigate a lot of the upcoming uncertainty and volatility around timing of several of those catalysts. Longer-term, though, we still want to have that [reopening exposure.]”</p><p><blockquote>哈维表示：“近期经济存在不确定性、利率不确定性和新冠病毒风险，一般来说，我们正处于9月份左右的季节性疲软时期。”“如果我们能够平衡低波动性和高Covid贝塔值，我们就可以减轻其中几种催化剂时机即将到来的不确定性和波动性。不过，从长远来看，我们仍然希望[重新开放风险。]”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Harvey’s list of low-volatility stocks with high Covid beta includesApple(AAPL),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>(BAC),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTRSP\">Northern</a> Trust(NTRS),Lowe’s(LOW),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQV\">IQVIA</a> Holdings(IQV), andMasco(MAS).</p><p><blockquote>哈维列出的具有高新贝塔值的低波动性股票名单包括苹果(AAPL)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>（BAC），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTRSP\">北方的</a>信托(NTRS)、劳氏(LOW)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQV\">IQVIA</a>控股公司（IQV）和马斯科公司（MAS）。</blockquote></p><p> Overall, banks are the most frequently recommended group for the months ahead. TheInvesco KBW Bankexchange-traded fund (KBWB) provides broad exposure to the sector in the U.S.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，银行是未来几个月最常被推荐的群体。Invesco KBW银行交易所交易基金(KBWB)提供对美国该行业的广泛投资。</blockquote></p><p> “We like the valuations [and] credit quality; they are now allowed to buy back shares and increase dividends, and there’s higher Covid beta,” says Harvey.</p><p><blockquote>“我们喜欢估值和信用质量；他们现在被允许回购股票并增加股息，而且新冠贝塔值更高，”哈维说。</blockquote></p><p> Cheaper valuations mean less potential downside in a market correction. And, contrary to much of the rest of the stock market, higher interest rates would be a tailwind for the banks, which could then charge more for loans.</p><p><blockquote>较低的估值意味着市场调整中潜在的下行空间较小。而且，与股市的其他大部分地区相反，更高的利率将成为银行的顺风车，银行可能会收取更高的贷款费用。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">Healthcare</a> stocks also have some fans. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HR\">Healthcare</a> has both defensive and growth attributes to it,” Wilson says. “You’re paying a lot less per unit of growth in healthcare today than you are in other sectors. So we think it provides good balance in this market when we’re worried about valuation.” Health insurerHumana(HUM) makes Wilson’s “Fresh Money Buy List” of stocks Buy-rated by <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a> analysts and fitting his macro views.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">医疗保健</a>股票也有一些粉丝。”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HR\">医疗保健</a>具有防御性和成长性，”威尔逊说。“如今，医疗保健行业每单位增长支付的费用比其他行业低得多。因此，我们认为，当我们担心估值时，它为这个市场提供了良好的平衡。”健康保险公司Humana(HUM)跻身威尔逊“新鲜资金买入名单”股票买入评级<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>分析师并符合他的宏观观点。</blockquote></p><p> Nuveen’s Malik is also looking toward health care for relatively underpriced growth exposure, namely in the pharmaceuticals and biotechnology groups. She points toSeagen(SGEN), which is focused on oncology drugs and could be an attractive acquisition target for a pharma giant.</p><p><blockquote>Nuveen的Malik还将目光投向医疗保健领域，以获得相对低估的增长机会，即制药和生物技术领域。她指出了Seagen(SGEN)，该公司专注于肿瘤药物，可能成为制药巨头有吸引力的收购目标。</blockquote></p><p> Malik also likesAbbVie(ABBV) which trades at an undemanding eight times forward earnings and sports a 4.7% dividend yield. The coming expiration of patents on its blockbuster anti-inflammatory drug Humira has kept some investors away, but Malik is confident that management can limit the damage and sees promising drugs in development at the $200 billion company.</p><p><blockquote>马利克还喜欢艾伯维(ABBV)，该公司的预期市盈率为8倍，股息收益率为4.7%。其重磅抗炎药修美乐(Humira)的专利即将到期，这让一些投资者望而却步，但马利克相信管理层能够限制损失，并看到这家价值2000亿美元的公司正在开发有前途的药物。</blockquote></p><p> Both stocks have had a tough time in recent days. Seagen fell more than 8% last week, to around $152, on news that its co-founder and CEO sold a large number of shares recently. AndAbbVietanked 7% Wednesday, to $112.27, after the Food and Drug Administration required new warning labels for JAK inhibitors, a type of anti-rheumatoid drug that includes one of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABBV\">AbbVie</a>’s most promising post-Humira products.</p><p><blockquote>这两只股票最近几天都过得很艰难。Seagen上周跌超8%，报152美元左右，因有消息称其联合创始人兼首席执行官近期大量抛售股票。在美国食品和药物管理局要求为JAK抑制剂贴上新的警告标签后，ABBVIE周三上涨7%，至112.27美元。JAK抑制剂是一种抗类风湿药物，其中包括一种<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABBV\">艾伯维</a>最有前途的后修美乐产品。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">Pfizer</a>(PFE),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">American Express</a>(AXP),Johnson &amp; Johnson(JNJ), andCisco Systems(CSCO) are other S&amp;P 500 members that pass a<i>Barron’s</i>screen for quality attributes.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">辉瑞</a>（PFE），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">美国运通</a>(AXP)、强生(JNJ)和思科系统(CSCO)是其他通过A的标普500成员<i>巴伦周刊</i>筛选质量属性。</blockquote></p><p> After a year of steady gains, investors might be reminded this fall that stocks can also decline, as growth momentum and policy support begin to fade. But underlying economic strength supports buying the dip, should the market drop from its highs. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> be more selective. And go with quality.</p><p><blockquote>经过一年的稳定上涨后，今年秋天投资者可能会被提醒，随着增长势头和政策支持开始消退，股市也可能下跌。但如果市场从高点下跌，潜在的经济实力支持逢低买入。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>更有选择性。追求质量。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Strategists Say the Stock Market Could Struggle This Fall. What to Buy Now?<blockquote>策略师表示，今年秋天股市可能会陷入困境。现在买什么？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStrategists Say the Stock Market Could Struggle This Fall. What to Buy Now?<blockquote>策略师表示，今年秋天股市可能会陷入困境。现在买什么？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barron's</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-07 17:32</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>What a year this has been for the markets! Fueled by a torrent of monetary and fiscal stimulus, economic and earnings growth, and (until recently) a mostly receding pandemic, theS&amp;P 500stock index has rallied 20%, notching seven straight months of gains and more than 50 highs along the way. And that’s on top of last year’s 68% rebound from the market’s March 2020 lows.</p><p><blockquote>对于市场来说，这是多么美好的一年啊！在货币和财政刺激、经济和盈利增长以及（直到最近）疫情基本消退的推动下，标准普尔500股票指数已上涨20%，连续七个月上涨，并创下50多个高点。除此之外，去年市场从2020年3月的低点反弹了68%。</blockquote></p><p> Tailwinds remain in place, but headwinds now loom that could slow stocks’ advance. Stimulus spending has peaked, and economic and corporate-earnings growth are likely to decelerate through the end of the year. What’s more, theFederal Reserve has all but promised to start tapering its bond buyingin coming months, and the Biden administration has proposed hiking corporate and personal tax rates. None of this is apt to sit well with holders of increasingly pricey shares.</p><p><blockquote>顺风依然存在，但逆风现在迫在眉睫，可能会减缓股市的上涨。刺激支出已经见顶，经济和企业盈利增长可能会在今年年底放缓。此外，美联储几乎承诺在未来几个月开始缩减债券购买规模，拜登政府也提议提高企业和个人税率。这些都不会让股价越来越贵的持有者满意。</blockquote></p><p> In other words,brace for a volatile fallin which conflicting forces buffet stocks, bonds, and investors. “The everything rally is behind us,” says Saira Malik, chief investment officer of global equities at Nuveen. “It’s not going to be a sharply rising economic tide that lifts all boats from here.”</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，要做好迎接波动性下跌的准备，这种冲突迫使巴菲特股票、债券和投资者。Nuveen全球股票首席投资官Saira Malik表示：“一切反弹都已经过去。”“这不会是一场急剧上升的经济浪潮，将所有船只从这里抬起。”</blockquote></p><p> That’s the general consensus among the six market strategists and chief investment officers whom<i>Barron’s</i>recently consulted. All see the S&amp;P 500 ending the year near Thursday’s close of 4536. Their average target: 4585.</p><p><blockquote>这是六位市场策略师和首席投资官的普遍共识<i>巴伦周刊</i>最近咨询过。所有人都认为标普500将在周四收盘价4536点附近结束今年。他们的平均目标是：4585。</blockquote></p><p> Next year’s gains look muted, as well, relative to recent trends. The group expects the S&amp;P 500 to tack on another 6% in 2022, rising to about 4800.</p><p><blockquote>相对于最近的趋势，明年的涨幅看起来也很微弱。该集团预计2022年标普500将再增加6%，升至约4800。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb61c7b74b9b0f18a019afb4ac44ad59\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">With stocks trading for about 21 times the coming year’s expected earnings,bonds yielding little, and cash yielding less than nothing after accounting for inflation, investors face tough asset-allocation decisions. In place of the “everything rally,” which lifted fast-growing tech stocks, no-growth meme stocks, and the Dogecoins of the digital world, our market watchers recommend focusing on “quality” investments. In equities, that means shares of businesses with solid balance sheets, expanding profit margins, and ample and recurring free cash flow. Even if the averages do little in coming months, these stocks are likely to shine.</p><p><blockquote>由于股票交易价格约为来年预期收益的21倍，债券收益率很低，考虑通货膨胀后现金收益率低于零，投资者面临着艰难的资产配置决策。我们的市场观察人士建议关注“优质”投资，而不是提振快速增长的科技股、无增长的模因股和数字世界的狗狗币的“一切反弹”。在股票方面，这意味着拥有稳健的资产负债表、不断扩大的利润率以及充足且经常性的自由现金流的企业的股票。即使未来几个月平均指数表现不大，这些股票也可能会大放异彩。</blockquote></p><p> The stock market’s massive rally in the past year was a gift of sorts from the Federal Reserve, which flooded the financial system with money to stave off theeconomic damage wrought by the Covid pandemic. Since March 2020, the U.S. central bank has been buying a combined $120 billion a month of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, while keeping its benchmark federal-funds rate target at 0% to 0.25%. These moves have depressed bond yields and pushed investors into riskier assets, including stocks.</p><p><blockquote>过去一年股市的大幅上涨是美联储的一份礼物，美联储向金融体系注入了大量资金，以避免新冠疫情造成的经济损失。自2020年3月以来，美联储每月购买总计1200亿美元的美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券，同时将基准联邦基金利率目标维持在0%至0.25%。这些举措压低了债券收益率，并推动投资者进入包括股票在内的风险较高的资产。</blockquote></p><p> Fed Chairman Jerome <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">Powell</a> has said that the central bank might begin to wind down, or taper, its emergency asset purchases sometime in the coming quarters, a move that could roil risk assets of all sorts. “For us, it’s very simple: Tapering is tightening,” says Mike Wilson, chief investment officer and chief U.S. equity strategist atMorgan Stanley.“It’s the first step away from maximum accommodation [by the Fed]. They’re being very calculated about it this time, but the bottom line is that it should have a negative effect on equity valuations.”</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">鲍威尔</a>曾表示，央行可能会在未来几个季度的某个时候开始逐步减少或缩减紧急资产购买，此举可能会扰乱各类风险资产。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)首席投资官兼首席美国股票策略师威尔逊(Mike Wilson)表示：“对我们来说，缩减规模很简单：缩减规模就是紧缩。这是（美联储）距离最大限度宽松政策迈出的第一步。他们这次对此非常谨慎，但底线是，这应该会对股票估值产生负面影响。”</blockquote></p><p> The government’s stimulus spending, too, has peaked, the strategists note. Supplemental federal unemployment benefits of $300 a week expire as of Sept. 6. Although Congress seems likely to pass a bipartisan infrastructure bill this fall, the near-term economic impact will pale in comparison to the multiple rounds of stimulus introduced since March 2020.</p><p><blockquote>策略师指出，政府的刺激支出也已见顶。每周300美元的补充联邦失业救济金将于9月6日到期。尽管国会似乎有可能在今年秋天通过一项两党基础设施法案，但与2020年3月以来推出的多轮刺激措施相比，近期的经济影响将相形见绌。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2cb76c498c1c4c980139e3d0514c261\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The bill includes about $550 billion in new spending—a fraction of the trillions authorized by previous laws—and it will be spread out over many years. The short-term boost that infrastructure stimulus will give to consumer spending, which accounts for almost 70% of U.S. growth domestic product, won’t come close to what the economy saw after millions of Americans received checks from the government this past year.</p><p><blockquote>该法案包括约5500亿美元的新支出——只是之前法律授权的数万亿美元的一小部分——并且将分散在许多年内。基础设施刺激措施将给消费者支出带来的短期提振，占美国国内生产总值增长的近70%，但不会接近去年数百万美国人收到政府支票后的经济增长。</blockquote></p><p> A budget bill approved by Democrats only should follow the infrastructure bill, and include spending to support Medicare expansion, child-care funding, free community-college tuition, public housing, and climate-related measures, among other party priorities. Congress could vote to lift taxes on corporations and high-earning individuals to offset that spending—another near-term risk to the market.</p><p><blockquote>仅由民主党批准的预算法案应该遵循基础设施法案，并包括支持医疗保险扩张、儿童保育资金、免费社区大学学费、公共住房和气候相关措施以及其他政党优先事项的支出。国会可能会投票提高企业和高收入个人的税收，以抵消这些支出——这是市场面临的另一个近期风险。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6693da658db16059fc99e08a7531675f\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Other politically charged issues likewise could derail equities this fall. Congress needs to pass a debt-ceiling increase to fund the government, and a stop-gap spending bill later this month to avoid a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">Washington</a> shutdown in October.</p><p><blockquote>今年秋天，其他带有政治色彩的问题同样可能会让股市脱轨。国会需要通过提高债务上限来为政府提供资金，并在本月晚些时候通过一项权宜之计的支出法案来避免<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">华盛顿</a>10月停工。</blockquote></p><p> For now, our market experts are relatively sanguine about the economic impact of the Delta variant of Covid-19. As long as vaccines remain effective in minimizing severe infections that lead to hospitalizations and deaths, the negative effects of the current Covid wave will be limited largely to the travel industry and movie theaters, they say. Wall Street’s base case for the market doesn’t include a renewed wave of lockdowns that would undermine economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>目前，我们的市场专家对Covid-19德尔塔变异毒株的经济影响相对乐观。他们说，只要疫苗在最大限度地减少导致住院和死亡的严重感染方面仍然有效，当前Covid浪潮的负面影响将主要限于旅游业和电影院。华尔街对市场的基本假设不包括会破坏经济增长的新一波封锁。</blockquote></p><p> Inflation has been a hot topic at the Fed and among investors, partly because it has been running so hot of late. The U.S. consumer price index rose at an annualized 5.4% in both June and July—a spike the Fed calls transitory, although others aren’t so sure. The strategists are taking Powell’s side of the argument; they expect inflation to fall significantly next year. Their forecasts fall between 2.5% and 3.5%, which they consider manageable for consumers and companies, and an acceptable side effect of rapid economic growth. An inflation rate above 2.5%, however, combined with Fed tapering, would mean that now ultralow bond yields should rise.</p><p><blockquote>通胀一直是美联储和投资者的热门话题，部分原因是通胀最近非常火爆。6月和7月，美国消费者价格指数年化涨幅为5.4%，这是美联储评级暂时性的飙升，尽管其他人不太确定。策略师们站在鲍威尔一边。他们预计明年通胀将大幅下降。他们的预测在2.5%至3.5%之间，他们认为这对消费者和公司来说是可控的，也是经济快速增长的可接受的副作用。然而，通胀率高于2.5%，加上美联储缩减规模，意味着目前超低的债券收益率应该会上升。</blockquote></p><p> “We think inflation will continue to run hotter than it has since the financial crisis, but it’s hard for us to see inflation much over 2.5% once many of the reopening-related pressures start to dissipate,” says Michael Fredericks, head of income investing for theBlackRockMulti-Asset Strategies Group. “So bond yields do need to move up, but that will happen gradually.”</p><p><blockquote>收益投资主管迈克尔·弗雷德里克斯(Michael Fredericks)表示：“我们认为通胀将继续比金融危机以来更高，但一旦许多与重新开放相关的压力开始消散，我们很难看到通胀率远高于2.5%。”贝莱德多资产策略集团。“因此债券收益率确实需要上升，但这将逐渐发生。”</blockquote></p><p> The strategists see the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbing to around 1.65% by year end. That’s about 35 basis points—or hundredths of a percentage point—above current levels, but below the 1.75% that the yield reached at its March 2021 highs. By next year, the 10-year Treasury could yield 2%, the group says. Those aren’t big moves in absolute terms, but they’re meaningful for&nbsp;the bond market—and could be even more so for stocks.</p><p><blockquote>策略师预计，到年底，10年期美国国债收益率将攀升至1.65%左右。这比当前水平高出约35个基点（即百分之几个百分点），但低于2021年3月收益率高点时达到的1.75%。该组织表示，到明年，10年期国债收益率可能达到2%。从绝对值来看，这些举措并不是很大，但对债券市场来说意义重大，对股票来说可能更是如此。</blockquote></p><p> Rising yields tend to weigh on stock valuations for two reasons. Higher-yielding bonds offer competition to stocks, and companies’ future earnings are worthless in the present when discounting them at a higher rate. Still, a 10-year yield around 2% won’t be enough to knock stock valuations down to pre-Covid levels. Even if yields climb, market strategists see the price/earnings multiple of the S&amp;P 500 holding well above its 30-year average of 16 times forward earnings. The index’s forward P/E topped 23 last fall.</p><p><blockquote>收益率上升往往会打压股票估值，原因有二。高收益债券提供了与股票的竞争，当以更高的利率贴现时，公司的未来收益在目前毫无价值。尽管如此，2%左右的10年期国债收益率仍不足以将股票估值降至新冠疫情爆发前的水平。即使收益率攀升，市场策略师认为标普500的市盈率仍远高于预期市盈率16倍的30年平均水平。去年秋天，该指数的远期市盈率突破23。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e08d24cb421d7cc13debd76a9c6fea01\" tg-width=\"660\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> As long as 10-year Treasury yields stay in the 2% range, the S&amp;P 500 should be able to command a forward P/E in the high teens, strategists say. A return to the 16-times long-term average isn’t in the cards until there is more pressure from much higher yields—or something else that causes stocks to fall.</p><p><blockquote>策略师表示，只要10年期国债收益率保持在2%的范围内，标普500的远期市盈率就应该能够在十几岁左右。除非收益率高得多或其他导致股市下跌的因素带来更大压力，否则不可能回到16倍的长期平均水平。</blockquote></p><p> If yields surge past 2% or 2.25%, investors could start to question equity valuations more seriously, says&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STT\">State</a> Street’schief portfolio strategist, Gaurav Mallik: “We haven’t seen [the 10-year yield] above 2% for some time now, so that’s an important sentiment level for investors.”</p><p><blockquote>表示，如果收益率飙升超过2%或2.25%，投资者可能会开始更严重地质疑股票估值<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STT\">国家</a>Street首席投资组合策略师Gaurav Mallik：“我们已经有一段时间没有看到（10年期国债收益率）超过2%了，因此这对投资者来说是一个重要的情绪水平。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93ff6490069ab5dc1b4057f1ff7966f3\" tg-width=\"664\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Wilson is more concerned, noting that the stock market’s valuation risk is asymmetric: “It’s very unlikely that multiples are going to go up, and there’s a good chance that they go down more than 10% given the deceleration in growth and where we are in the cycle,” he says</p><p><blockquote>威尔逊更担心，他指出，股市的估值风险是不对称的：“市盈率不太可能上升，考虑到增长放缓和我们所处的位置，市盈率很有可能下降10%以上。在周期中，”他说</blockquote></p><p> If 16 to 23 times forward earnings is the range, he adds, “you’re already at the very high end of that. There’s more potential risk than reward.”</p><p><blockquote>他补充道，如果预期市盈率为16至23倍，“你已经处于这个范围的很高端。潜在风险大于回报。”</blockquote></p><p> Some P/E-multiple compression is baked into all six strategists’ forecasts, heaping greater importance on the path of profit growth. On average, the strategists expect S&amp;P 500 earnings to jump 46% this year, to about $204, after last year’s earnings depression. That could be followed by a more normalized gain of 9% in 2022, to about $222.50.</p><p><blockquote>所有六位策略师的预测都包含了一些市盈率倍数的压缩，这对利润增长路径变得更加重要。平均而言，策略师预计，继去年的盈利低迷之后，标普500今年的盈利将增长46%，至204美元左右。随后，2022年可能会上涨9%，达到约222.50美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> A potential headwind would be a higher federal corporate-tax rate in 2022. The details of Democrats’ spending and taxation plans will be worked out in the coming weeks, and investors can expect to hear a lot more about potential tax increases. Several strategists see a 25% federal rate on corporate profits as a likely compromise figure, above the 21% in place since 2018, but below the 28% sought by the Biden administration.</p><p><blockquote>一个潜在的阻力是2022年联邦企业税率上升。民主党支出和税收计划的细节将在未来几周内制定出来，投资者可以期待听到更多有关潜在增税的消息。几位策略师认为，25%的联邦企业利润税率可能是一个妥协数字，高于2018年以来实施的21%，但低于拜登政府寻求的28%。</blockquote></p><p> An increase of that magnitude would shave about 5% off S&amp;P 500 earnings next year. The index could drop by a similar amount as the passage of the Democrats’ reconciliation bill nears this fall, but the impact should be limited to that initial correction. As with the tax cuts in December 2017, the change should be a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>-time event for the market, some strategists predict.</p><p><blockquote>如此幅度的增长将使标普500明年的盈利减少约5%。随着今年秋天民主党和解法案的通过，该指数可能会下跌类似的幅度，但影响应该仅限于最初的调整。与2017年12月的减税一样，这一变化应该是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>——一些策略师预测，市场的时间事件。</blockquote></p><p> These concerns aside, investors shouldn’t miss the bigger picture: The U.S. economy is in good shape and growing robustly. The strategists expect gross domestic product to rise 6.3% this year and about 4% in 2022. “The cyclical uplift and above-trend growth will continue at least through 2022, and we want to be biased toward assets that have that exposure,” says Mallik.</p><p><blockquote>抛开这些担忧不谈，投资者不应错过更大的图景：美国经济状况良好，增长强劲。策略师预计今年国内生产总值将增长6.3%，2022年将增长约4%。Mallik表示：“周期性上涨和高于趋势的增长将至少持续到2022年，我们希望偏向于具有这种风险的资产。”</blockquote></p><p>   “We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next. When GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”— Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets  The State Street strategist recommends overweighting materials, financials, and technology in investment portfolios. That approach includes both economically sensitive companies, such as banks and miners, and steady growers in the tech sector.</p><p><blockquote>“今明两年我们的经济将会火爆。当GDP增长高于平均水平时，价值会超过增长，周期性会超过防御性。”—Lori Calvasina，加拿大皇家银行资本市场道富策略师建议在投资组合中增持材料、金融和科技股。这种方法既包括银行和矿业公司等对经济敏感的公司，也包括科技行业的稳定增长者。</blockquote></p><p> RBC Capital Markets’ head of U.S. equity strategy, Lori Calvasina, likewise takes a barbell approach, with both cyclical and growth exposure. Her preferred sectors are energy, financials, and technology.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)美国股票策略主管洛里·卡尔瓦西纳(Lori Calvasina)同样采取杠铃法，同时投资周期性和成长性。她最喜欢的行业是能源、金融和技术。</blockquote></p><p> “Valuations are still a lot more attractive in financials and energy than growth [sectors such as technology or consumer discretionary,]” Calvasina says. “The catalyst in the near term is getting out of the current Covid wave... We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next, and traditionally when GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”</p><p><blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳表示：“金融和能源行业的估值仍然比增长行业（科技或非必需消费品等行业）更具吸引力。”“近期的催化剂是摆脱当前的新冠疫情浪潮……今年和明年我们将迎来经济火爆，传统上，当GDP增长高于平均水平时，价值会跑赢增长，周期性会跑赢防御性。”</blockquote></p><p> But the focus on quality will be pivotal, especially moving into the second half of 2022. That’s when the Fed is likely to hike interest rates for the first time in this cycle. By 2023, the economy could return to pre-Covid growth on the order of 2%.</p><p><blockquote>但对质量的关注将是关键，尤其是进入2022年下半年。届时美联储可能会在本周期内首次加息。到2023年，经济可能会恢复到新冠疫情前2%左右的增长。</blockquote></p><p> “The historical playbook is that coming out of a recession, you tend to see low-quality outperformance that lasts about a year, then leadership flips back to high quality,” Calvasina says. “But that transition from low quality back to high quality tends to be very bumpy.”</p><p><blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳表示：“历史上的剧本是，走出衰退后，你往往会看到持续一年左右的低质量优异表现，然后领导力又会恢复到高质量。”“但从低质量回到高质量的转变往往非常坎坷。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Shopping List for Fall</b></p><p><blockquote><b>秋季购物清单</b></blockquote></p><p> Most strategists favor a combination of economically sensitive stocks and steady growers, including tech shares. Financials should do well, particularly if bond yields rise.</p><p><blockquote>大多数策略师青睐对经济敏感的股票和稳定增长的股票（包括科技股）的组合。金融股应该会表现良好，特别是如果债券收益率上升的话。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a54c4bd114c1a5f7f700d1fc14d30d8e\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"230\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Although stocks with quality attributes have outperformed the market this summer, according to a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a> analysis, the quality factor has lagged since positive vaccine news was first reported last November.</p><p><blockquote>尽管今年夏天具有质量属性的股票表现优于大盘，但根据一家<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">贝莱德</a>分析，自去年11月首次报道疫苗正面消息以来，质量因素一直滞后。</blockquote></p><p> “We’re moving into a mid-cycle environment, when underlying economic growth remains strong but momentum begins to decelerate,” BlackRock’s Fredericks says. “Our research shows that quality stocks perform particularly well in such a period.”</p><p><blockquote>贝莱德的弗雷德里克斯表示：“我们正在进入周期中期环境，基本经济增长仍然强劲，但势头开始减速。”“我们的研究表明，优质股票在这样的时期表现尤其出色。”</blockquote></p><p> He recommends overweighting profitable technology companies; financials, including banks, and consumer staples and industrials with those quality characteristics.</p><p><blockquote>他建议增持盈利的科技公司；金融，包括银行，以及具有这些质量特征的消费品和工业。</blockquote></p><p> For <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a>’s head of equity strategy, Christopher Harvey, a mix of post-pandemic beneficiaries and defensive exposure is the way to go. He constructed a basket of stocks with lower-than-average volatility—which should outperform during periods of market uncertainty or stress this fall—and high “Covid beta,” or sensitivity to good or bad news about the pandemic. One requirement; The stocks had to be rated the equivalent of Buy by Wells Fargo’s equity analysts.</p><p><blockquote>为了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">富国银行</a>股票策略主管克里斯托弗·哈维(Christopher Harvey)表示，大流行后受益者和防御性敞口的结合才是正确的选择。他构建了一篮子波动性低于平均水平的股票——在今年秋季市场不确定性或压力时期，这些股票应该会跑赢大盘——并且“新冠贝塔值”较高，即对有关大流行的好消息或坏消息的敏感性。一个要求；富国银行的股票分析师必须将这些股票评级为“买入”。</blockquote></p><p> “There’s near-term economic uncertainty, interest-rate uncertainty, and Covid risk, and generally we’re in a seasonally weaker part of the year around September,” says Harvey. “If we can balance low vol and high Covid beta, we can mitigate a lot of the upcoming uncertainty and volatility around timing of several of those catalysts. Longer-term, though, we still want to have that [reopening exposure.]”</p><p><blockquote>哈维表示：“近期经济存在不确定性、利率不确定性和新冠病毒风险，一般来说，我们正处于9月份左右的季节性疲软时期。”“如果我们能够平衡低波动性和高Covid贝塔值，我们就可以减轻其中几种催化剂时机即将到来的不确定性和波动性。不过，从长远来看，我们仍然希望[重新开放风险。]”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Harvey’s list of low-volatility stocks with high Covid beta includesApple(AAPL),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>(BAC),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTRSP\">Northern</a> Trust(NTRS),Lowe’s(LOW),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQV\">IQVIA</a> Holdings(IQV), andMasco(MAS).</p><p><blockquote>哈维列出的具有高新贝塔值的低波动性股票名单包括苹果(AAPL)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>（BAC），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTRSP\">北方的</a>信托(NTRS)、劳氏(LOW)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQV\">IQVIA</a>控股公司（IQV）和马斯科公司（MAS）。</blockquote></p><p> Overall, banks are the most frequently recommended group for the months ahead. TheInvesco KBW Bankexchange-traded fund (KBWB) provides broad exposure to the sector in the U.S.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，银行是未来几个月最常被推荐的群体。Invesco KBW银行交易所交易基金(KBWB)提供对美国该行业的广泛投资。</blockquote></p><p> “We like the valuations [and] credit quality; they are now allowed to buy back shares and increase dividends, and there’s higher Covid beta,” says Harvey.</p><p><blockquote>“我们喜欢估值和信用质量；他们现在被允许回购股票并增加股息，而且新冠贝塔值更高，”哈维说。</blockquote></p><p> Cheaper valuations mean less potential downside in a market correction. And, contrary to much of the rest of the stock market, higher interest rates would be a tailwind for the banks, which could then charge more for loans.</p><p><blockquote>较低的估值意味着市场调整中潜在的下行空间较小。而且，与股市的其他大部分地区相反，更高的利率将成为银行的顺风车，银行可能会收取更高的贷款费用。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">Healthcare</a> stocks also have some fans. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HR\">Healthcare</a> has both defensive and growth attributes to it,” Wilson says. “You’re paying a lot less per unit of growth in healthcare today than you are in other sectors. So we think it provides good balance in this market when we’re worried about valuation.” Health insurerHumana(HUM) makes Wilson’s “Fresh Money Buy List” of stocks Buy-rated by <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a> analysts and fitting his macro views.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">医疗保健</a>股票也有一些粉丝。”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HR\">医疗保健</a>具有防御性和成长性，”威尔逊说。“如今，医疗保健行业每单位增长支付的费用比其他行业低得多。因此，我们认为，当我们担心估值时，它为这个市场提供了良好的平衡。”健康保险公司Humana(HUM)跻身威尔逊“新鲜资金买入名单”股票买入评级<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>分析师并符合他的宏观观点。</blockquote></p><p> Nuveen’s Malik is also looking toward health care for relatively underpriced growth exposure, namely in the pharmaceuticals and biotechnology groups. She points toSeagen(SGEN), which is focused on oncology drugs and could be an attractive acquisition target for a pharma giant.</p><p><blockquote>Nuveen的Malik还将目光投向医疗保健领域，以获得相对低估的增长机会，即制药和生物技术领域。她指出了Seagen(SGEN)，该公司专注于肿瘤药物，可能成为制药巨头有吸引力的收购目标。</blockquote></p><p> Malik also likesAbbVie(ABBV) which trades at an undemanding eight times forward earnings and sports a 4.7% dividend yield. The coming expiration of patents on its blockbuster anti-inflammatory drug Humira has kept some investors away, but Malik is confident that management can limit the damage and sees promising drugs in development at the $200 billion company.</p><p><blockquote>马利克还喜欢艾伯维(ABBV)，该公司的预期市盈率为8倍，股息收益率为4.7%。其重磅抗炎药修美乐(Humira)的专利即将到期，这让一些投资者望而却步，但马利克相信管理层能够限制损失，并看到这家价值2000亿美元的公司正在开发有前途的药物。</blockquote></p><p> Both stocks have had a tough time in recent days. Seagen fell more than 8% last week, to around $152, on news that its co-founder and CEO sold a large number of shares recently. AndAbbVietanked 7% Wednesday, to $112.27, after the Food and Drug Administration required new warning labels for JAK inhibitors, a type of anti-rheumatoid drug that includes one of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABBV\">AbbVie</a>’s most promising post-Humira products.</p><p><blockquote>这两只股票最近几天都过得很艰难。Seagen上周跌超8%，报152美元左右，因有消息称其联合创始人兼首席执行官近期大量抛售股票。在美国食品和药物管理局要求为JAK抑制剂贴上新的警告标签后，ABBVIE周三上涨7%，至112.27美元。JAK抑制剂是一种抗类风湿药物，其中包括一种<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABBV\">艾伯维</a>最有前途的后修美乐产品。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">Pfizer</a>(PFE),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">American Express</a>(AXP),Johnson &amp; Johnson(JNJ), andCisco Systems(CSCO) are other S&amp;P 500 members that pass a<i>Barron’s</i>screen for quality attributes.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">辉瑞</a>（PFE），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">美国运通</a>(AXP)、强生(JNJ)和思科系统(CSCO)是其他通过A的标普500成员<i>巴伦周刊</i>筛选质量属性。</blockquote></p><p> After a year of steady gains, investors might be reminded this fall that stocks can also decline, as growth momentum and policy support begin to fade. But underlying economic strength supports buying the dip, should the market drop from its highs. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> be more selective. And go with quality.</p><p><blockquote>经过一年的稳定上涨后，今年秋天投资者可能会被提醒，随着增长势头和政策支持开始消退，股市也可能下跌。但如果市场从高点下跌，潜在的经济实力支持逢低买入。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>更有选择性。追求质量。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-could-struggle-this-fall-market-strategists-say-stick-with-quality-companies-51630699840?siteid=yhoof2\">Barron's</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-could-struggle-this-fall-market-strategists-say-stick-with-quality-companies-51630699840?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130130857","content_text":"What a year this has been for the markets! Fueled by a torrent of monetary and fiscal stimulus, economic and earnings growth, and (until recently) a mostly receding pandemic, theS&P 500stock index has rallied 20%, notching seven straight months of gains and more than 50 highs along the way. And that’s on top of last year’s 68% rebound from the market’s March 2020 lows.\nTailwinds remain in place, but headwinds now loom that could slow stocks’ advance. Stimulus spending has peaked, and economic and corporate-earnings growth are likely to decelerate through the end of the year. What’s more, theFederal Reserve has all but promised to start tapering its bond buyingin coming months, and the Biden administration has proposed hiking corporate and personal tax rates. None of this is apt to sit well with holders of increasingly pricey shares.\nIn other words,brace for a volatile fallin which conflicting forces buffet stocks, bonds, and investors. “The everything rally is behind us,” says Saira Malik, chief investment officer of global equities at Nuveen. “It’s not going to be a sharply rising economic tide that lifts all boats from here.”\nThat’s the general consensus among the six market strategists and chief investment officers whomBarron’srecently consulted. All see the S&P 500 ending the year near Thursday’s close of 4536. Their average target: 4585.\nNext year’s gains look muted, as well, relative to recent trends. The group expects the S&P 500 to tack on another 6% in 2022, rising to about 4800.\nWith stocks trading for about 21 times the coming year’s expected earnings,bonds yielding little, and cash yielding less than nothing after accounting for inflation, investors face tough asset-allocation decisions. In place of the “everything rally,” which lifted fast-growing tech stocks, no-growth meme stocks, and the Dogecoins of the digital world, our market watchers recommend focusing on “quality” investments. In equities, that means shares of businesses with solid balance sheets, expanding profit margins, and ample and recurring free cash flow. Even if the averages do little in coming months, these stocks are likely to shine.\nThe stock market’s massive rally in the past year was a gift of sorts from the Federal Reserve, which flooded the financial system with money to stave off theeconomic damage wrought by the Covid pandemic. Since March 2020, the U.S. central bank has been buying a combined $120 billion a month of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, while keeping its benchmark federal-funds rate target at 0% to 0.25%. These moves have depressed bond yields and pushed investors into riskier assets, including stocks.\nFed Chairman Jerome Powell has said that the central bank might begin to wind down, or taper, its emergency asset purchases sometime in the coming quarters, a move that could roil risk assets of all sorts. “For us, it’s very simple: Tapering is tightening,” says Mike Wilson, chief investment officer and chief U.S. equity strategist atMorgan Stanley.“It’s the first step away from maximum accommodation [by the Fed]. They’re being very calculated about it this time, but the bottom line is that it should have a negative effect on equity valuations.”\nThe government’s stimulus spending, too, has peaked, the strategists note. Supplemental federal unemployment benefits of $300 a week expire as of Sept. 6. Although Congress seems likely to pass a bipartisan infrastructure bill this fall, the near-term economic impact will pale in comparison to the multiple rounds of stimulus introduced since March 2020.\nThe bill includes about $550 billion in new spending—a fraction of the trillions authorized by previous laws—and it will be spread out over many years. The short-term boost that infrastructure stimulus will give to consumer spending, which accounts for almost 70% of U.S. growth domestic product, won’t come close to what the economy saw after millions of Americans received checks from the government this past year.\nA budget bill approved by Democrats only should follow the infrastructure bill, and include spending to support Medicare expansion, child-care funding, free community-college tuition, public housing, and climate-related measures, among other party priorities. Congress could vote to lift taxes on corporations and high-earning individuals to offset that spending—another near-term risk to the market.\nOther politically charged issues likewise could derail equities this fall. Congress needs to pass a debt-ceiling increase to fund the government, and a stop-gap spending bill later this month to avoid a Washington shutdown in October.\nFor now, our market experts are relatively sanguine about the economic impact of the Delta variant of Covid-19. As long as vaccines remain effective in minimizing severe infections that lead to hospitalizations and deaths, the negative effects of the current Covid wave will be limited largely to the travel industry and movie theaters, they say. Wall Street’s base case for the market doesn’t include a renewed wave of lockdowns that would undermine economic growth.\nInflation has been a hot topic at the Fed and among investors, partly because it has been running so hot of late. The U.S. consumer price index rose at an annualized 5.4% in both June and July—a spike the Fed calls transitory, although others aren’t so sure. The strategists are taking Powell’s side of the argument; they expect inflation to fall significantly next year. Their forecasts fall between 2.5% and 3.5%, which they consider manageable for consumers and companies, and an acceptable side effect of rapid economic growth. An inflation rate above 2.5%, however, combined with Fed tapering, would mean that now ultralow bond yields should rise.\n“We think inflation will continue to run hotter than it has since the financial crisis, but it’s hard for us to see inflation much over 2.5% once many of the reopening-related pressures start to dissipate,” says Michael Fredericks, head of income investing for theBlackRockMulti-Asset Strategies Group. “So bond yields do need to move up, but that will happen gradually.”\nThe strategists see the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbing to around 1.65% by year end. That’s about 35 basis points—or hundredths of a percentage point—above current levels, but below the 1.75% that the yield reached at its March 2021 highs. By next year, the 10-year Treasury could yield 2%, the group says. Those aren’t big moves in absolute terms, but they’re meaningful for the bond market—and could be even more so for stocks.\nRising yields tend to weigh on stock valuations for two reasons. Higher-yielding bonds offer competition to stocks, and companies’ future earnings are worthless in the present when discounting them at a higher rate. Still, a 10-year yield around 2% won’t be enough to knock stock valuations down to pre-Covid levels. Even if yields climb, market strategists see the price/earnings multiple of the S&P 500 holding well above its 30-year average of 16 times forward earnings. The index’s forward P/E topped 23 last fall.\n\nAs long as 10-year Treasury yields stay in the 2% range, the S&P 500 should be able to command a forward P/E in the high teens, strategists say. A return to the 16-times long-term average isn’t in the cards until there is more pressure from much higher yields—or something else that causes stocks to fall.\nIf yields surge past 2% or 2.25%, investors could start to question equity valuations more seriously, says State Street’schief portfolio strategist, Gaurav Mallik: “We haven’t seen [the 10-year yield] above 2% for some time now, so that’s an important sentiment level for investors.”\n\nWilson is more concerned, noting that the stock market’s valuation risk is asymmetric: “It’s very unlikely that multiples are going to go up, and there’s a good chance that they go down more than 10% given the deceleration in growth and where we are in the cycle,” he says\nIf 16 to 23 times forward earnings is the range, he adds, “you’re already at the very high end of that. There’s more potential risk than reward.”\nSome P/E-multiple compression is baked into all six strategists’ forecasts, heaping greater importance on the path of profit growth. On average, the strategists expect S&P 500 earnings to jump 46% this year, to about $204, after last year’s earnings depression. That could be followed by a more normalized gain of 9% in 2022, to about $222.50.\nA potential headwind would be a higher federal corporate-tax rate in 2022. The details of Democrats’ spending and taxation plans will be worked out in the coming weeks, and investors can expect to hear a lot more about potential tax increases. Several strategists see a 25% federal rate on corporate profits as a likely compromise figure, above the 21% in place since 2018, but below the 28% sought by the Biden administration.\nAn increase of that magnitude would shave about 5% off S&P 500 earnings next year. The index could drop by a similar amount as the passage of the Democrats’ reconciliation bill nears this fall, but the impact should be limited to that initial correction. As with the tax cuts in December 2017, the change should be a one-time event for the market, some strategists predict.\nThese concerns aside, investors shouldn’t miss the bigger picture: The U.S. economy is in good shape and growing robustly. The strategists expect gross domestic product to rise 6.3% this year and about 4% in 2022. “The cyclical uplift and above-trend growth will continue at least through 2022, and we want to be biased toward assets that have that exposure,” says Mallik.\n\n “We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next. When GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”— Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets\n\nThe State Street strategist recommends overweighting materials, financials, and technology in investment portfolios. That approach includes both economically sensitive companies, such as banks and miners, and steady growers in the tech sector.\nRBC Capital Markets’ head of U.S. equity strategy, Lori Calvasina, likewise takes a barbell approach, with both cyclical and growth exposure. Her preferred sectors are energy, financials, and technology.\n“Valuations are still a lot more attractive in financials and energy than growth [sectors such as technology or consumer discretionary,]” Calvasina says. “The catalyst in the near term is getting out of the current Covid wave... We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next, and traditionally when GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”\nBut the focus on quality will be pivotal, especially moving into the second half of 2022. That’s when the Fed is likely to hike interest rates for the first time in this cycle. By 2023, the economy could return to pre-Covid growth on the order of 2%.\n“The historical playbook is that coming out of a recession, you tend to see low-quality outperformance that lasts about a year, then leadership flips back to high quality,” Calvasina says. “But that transition from low quality back to high quality tends to be very bumpy.”\nA Shopping List for Fall\nMost strategists favor a combination of economically sensitive stocks and steady growers, including tech shares. Financials should do well, particularly if bond yields rise.\n\nAlthough stocks with quality attributes have outperformed the market this summer, according to a BlackRock analysis, the quality factor has lagged since positive vaccine news was first reported last November.\n“We’re moving into a mid-cycle environment, when underlying economic growth remains strong but momentum begins to decelerate,” BlackRock’s Fredericks says. “Our research shows that quality stocks perform particularly well in such a period.”\nHe recommends overweighting profitable technology companies; financials, including banks, and consumer staples and industrials with those quality characteristics.\nFor Wells Fargo’s head of equity strategy, Christopher Harvey, a mix of post-pandemic beneficiaries and defensive exposure is the way to go. He constructed a basket of stocks with lower-than-average volatility—which should outperform during periods of market uncertainty or stress this fall—and high “Covid beta,” or sensitivity to good or bad news about the pandemic. One requirement; The stocks had to be rated the equivalent of Buy by Wells Fargo’s equity analysts.\n“There’s near-term economic uncertainty, interest-rate uncertainty, and Covid risk, and generally we’re in a seasonally weaker part of the year around September,” says Harvey. “If we can balance low vol and high Covid beta, we can mitigate a lot of the upcoming uncertainty and volatility around timing of several of those catalysts. Longer-term, though, we still want to have that [reopening exposure.]”\nHarvey’s list of low-volatility stocks with high Covid beta includesApple(AAPL),Bank of America(BAC),Northern Trust(NTRS),Lowe’s(LOW),IQVIA Holdings(IQV), andMasco(MAS).\nOverall, banks are the most frequently recommended group for the months ahead. TheInvesco KBW Bankexchange-traded fund (KBWB) provides broad exposure to the sector in the U.S.\n“We like the valuations [and] credit quality; they are now allowed to buy back shares and increase dividends, and there’s higher Covid beta,” says Harvey.\nCheaper valuations mean less potential downside in a market correction. And, contrary to much of the rest of the stock market, higher interest rates would be a tailwind for the banks, which could then charge more for loans.\nHealthcare stocks also have some fans. “Healthcare has both defensive and growth attributes to it,” Wilson says. “You’re paying a lot less per unit of growth in healthcare today than you are in other sectors. So we think it provides good balance in this market when we’re worried about valuation.” Health insurerHumana(HUM) makes Wilson’s “Fresh Money Buy List” of stocks Buy-rated by Morgan Stanley analysts and fitting his macro views.\nNuveen’s Malik is also looking toward health care for relatively underpriced growth exposure, namely in the pharmaceuticals and biotechnology groups. She points toSeagen(SGEN), which is focused on oncology drugs and could be an attractive acquisition target for a pharma giant.\nMalik also likesAbbVie(ABBV) which trades at an undemanding eight times forward earnings and sports a 4.7% dividend yield. The coming expiration of patents on its blockbuster anti-inflammatory drug Humira has kept some investors away, but Malik is confident that management can limit the damage and sees promising drugs in development at the $200 billion company.\nBoth stocks have had a tough time in recent days. Seagen fell more than 8% last week, to around $152, on news that its co-founder and CEO sold a large number of shares recently. AndAbbVietanked 7% Wednesday, to $112.27, after the Food and Drug Administration required new warning labels for JAK inhibitors, a type of anti-rheumatoid drug that includes one of AbbVie’s most promising post-Humira products.\nPfizer(PFE),American Express(AXP),Johnson & Johnson(JNJ), andCisco Systems(CSCO) are other S&P 500 members that pass aBarron’sscreen for quality attributes.\nAfter a year of steady gains, investors might be reminded this fall that stocks can also decline, as growth momentum and policy support begin to fade. But underlying economic strength supports buying the dip, should the market drop from its highs. Just be more selective. And go with quality.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":584,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":850378681,"gmtCreate":1634561236247,"gmtModify":1634561337967,"author":{"id":"3582016577975526","authorId":"3582016577975526","name":"ivanlam","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b69aadeaeb7dadd4cee48a1d48771644","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582016577975526","authorIdStr":"3582016577975526"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":16,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/850378681","repostId":"1189411842","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1189411842","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1634557980,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1189411842?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-18 19:53","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Toplines Before US Market Open on Monday<blockquote>周一美国市场开盘前的顶线</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1189411842","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(Oct 18) Stock futures fell Monday morning to give back some gains after theS&P 500's best week sinc","content":"<p>(Oct&nbsp;18)&nbsp;Stock futures fell Monday morning to give back some gains after theS&amp;P 500's best week since July, with investors' concerns over elevated inflation offsetting hopes that more companies will follow the lead of the big banks last week and post strong quarterly earnings results.</p><p><blockquote>（10月18日）周一上午，在标准普尔500指数创下7月以来最好的一周后，股指期货下跌，回吐部分涨幅，投资者对通胀上升的担忧抵消了更多公司将效仿上周大银行并公布强劲季度收益的希望结果。</blockquote></p><p> At 07:55 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were down 114 points, or 0.32%, S&amp;P 500 e-minis were down 13 points, or 0.29%, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">Nasdaq</a> 100 e-minis were down 29.5 points, or 0.19%.</p><p><blockquote>截至美国东部时间上午07:55，道琼斯电子迷你指数下跌114点，跌幅0.32%，标普500电子迷你指数下跌13点，跌幅0.29%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">纳斯达克</a>100辆e-mini下跌29.5点，跌幅0.19%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b70366d9fa5fd9b7e99f325a5de0e9d\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"509\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Stocks making the biggest moves in the premarket:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盘前涨幅最大的股票：</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a> shares erased earlier losses and climbed as much as 4.3% in Hong Kong, as <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">China</a> debates rules to make hundreds of millions of articles on Tencent’s WeChat messaging app available via search engines like Baidu’s.</li>  <li>Crypto-related stocks in action as Bitcoin leaps as much as 5.3% and is just shy of a fresh six-month high. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIOT\">Riot Blockchain, Inc.</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MARA\">Marathon Digital Holdings Inc</a> and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">Coinbase Global, Inc.</a>&nbsp;are all up.</li>  <li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla Motors</a> shares rise 0.2% in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading Monday, poised for 50% rally from a March 8 low, ahead of its third-quarter results on Wednesday.</li>  <li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DVAX\">Dynavax</a> shares rise as much as 10% in U.S. pre-trading hours after the biopharmaceutical company announced that Valneva reported the trial of inactivated, adjuvanted Covid-19 vaccine candidate VLA2001 met its co-primary endpoints</li>  <li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIS\">Walt Disney</a> drops in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading after Barclays downgrades to equal-weight as the company faces a “tough” task to get to its long-term streaming subscription guidance.</li>  <li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTAP\">NetApp</a> slips 2.2% in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading after <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a> analyst Rod Hall cut the recommendation on NetApp Inc. to sell from neutral.</li> </ul> <b>In FX, </b>the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index advanced as the dollar traded higher versus all of its Group-of-10 peers Traders pulled forward rate- hike bets after BoE governor Bailey said the central bank “will have to act” on inflation. U.K. money markets now see 36 basis points of BoE rate increases in December and are pricing 15 basis points of tightening next month. Traders are also now betting the BoE’s key rate will rise to 1% by August, from 0.1% currently. The euro struggled to recover after falling below the $1.16 handle in the Asian session; money markets are betting the ECB will hike the deposit rate to -0.4% in September as expectations for global central-bank policy tightening gather pace. Resilience in the spot market and a divergence with rate differentials in the past sessions has resulted in a flatter volatility skew for the euro.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>香港股市收复早前跌幅，上涨4.3%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">中国</a>辩论通过百度等搜索引擎提供腾讯控股微信消息应用程序上数亿篇文章的规则。</li><li>随着比特币股价上涨5.3%，接近六个月新高，加密货币相关股票纷纷上涨。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIOT\">防暴区块链公司。</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MARA\">马拉松数字控股公司</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">比特币基地全球公司。</a>都起来了。</li><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>周一盘前交易中，该股上涨0.2%，在周三公布第三季度业绩之前，有望较3月8日低点上涨50%。</li><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DVAX\">Dynavax</a>生物制药公司Valneva宣布灭活佐剂Covid-19候选疫苗VLA2001的试验达到了其共同主要终点后，该公司股价在美国盘前交易时段上涨了10%</li><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIS\">迪斯尼</a>巴克莱银行将评级下调至同等权重后，盘前交易下跌，因为该公司面临着实现长期流媒体订阅指导的“艰巨”任务。</li><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTAP\">NetApp</a>盘前交易下跌2.2%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>分析师Rod Hall将NetApp Inc.的评级从中性下调至卖出。</li></ul><b>在FX中，</b>彭博美元现货指数上涨，美元兑所有10国集团同行走高，在英国央行行长贝利表示央行“将不得不对通胀采取行动”后，交易员撤回了远期加息押注。英国货币市场目前预计英国央行12月份将加息36个基点，并预计下个月将收紧15个基点。交易员现在还押注英国央行的关键利率将从目前的0.1%升至8月份的1%。欧元在亚洲时段跌破1.16美元关口后难以回升；随着全球央行政策收紧的预期加快，货币市场押注欧洲央行将在9月份将存款利率上调至-0.4%。现货市场的弹性以及过去几个交易日与利差的背离导致欧元的波动性趋于平缓。</blockquote></p><p> <b>In rates, </b>treasuries were under pressure led by belly of the curve as rate-hike premium continues to increase in global interest rates. Yields, though off session highs, remain cheaper by nearly 5bp in 5-year sector; 2s5s30s fly topped at -12.5bp, cheapest since 2018; 10-year is up 2.8bp around 1.60% vs 3.4bp increase for U.K. 10-year. Belly-led losses flattened U.S. 5s30s by as much as 5.4bp to tightest since April 2020 at around 86.1bp; U.K. 5s30s curve is flatter by ~8bp after its 5-year yield rose as much as 14bp.</p><p><blockquote><b>在费率方面，</b>随着全球利率加息溢价持续上升，美国国债面临曲线腹部带来的压力。5年期国债收益率虽然脱离盘中高点，但仍便宜近5个基点；2s5s30s最高为-12.5个基点，为2018年以来最便宜；10年期国债上涨2.8个基点，约为1.60%，而英国10年期国债上涨3.4个基点。腹部主导的下跌使美国5S30指数下跌5.4个基点，至2020年4月以来的最低水平，约为86.1个基点；英国5年期国债收益率上涨14bp后，5s30s曲线平坦了约8bp。</blockquote></p><p> Gilts led the move, with U.K. 2-year yield climbing as much as 16.8bp to highest since May 2019 as money markets priced in more policy tightening after Governor Andrew Bailey said the Bank of England “will have to act” on inflation. With latest moves, U.S. swaps market prices in two Fed hikes by the end of 2022.</p><p><blockquote>英国国债领涨，英国2年期国债收益率攀升16.8个基点，至2019年5月以来的最高水平，因为在行长安德鲁·贝利(Andrew Bailey)表示英国央行“将不得不对通胀采取行动”后，货币市场消化了更多政策收紧的影响。根据最新举措，美国将在2022年底前两次美联储加息中交换市场价格。</blockquote></p><p> <b>In commodities, </b>WTI rose 1%, trading just off session highs near $83.20; Brent holds above $85. Spot gold drifts lower near $1,762/oz. Most base metals are in the green with LME lead and tin outperforming.</p><p><blockquote><b>在大宗商品中，</b>WTI上涨1%，交易价格略低于83.20美元附近的盘中高点；布伦特原油维持在85美元上方。现货黄金在1762美元/盎司附近走低。大多数基本金属呈绿色，LME铅和锡表现优于大盘。</blockquote></p><p> Looking at today's calendar, we have industrial production, US September industrial production, capacity utilisation, October NAHB housing market index. Fed speakers include Quarles, Kashkari.</p><p><blockquote>看看今天的日历，我们有工业生产、美国9月工业生产、产能利用率、10月NAHB房地产市场指数。美联储发言人包括夸尔斯、卡什卡利。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Toplines Before US Market Open on Monday<blockquote>周一美国市场开盘前的顶线</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nToplines Before US Market Open on Monday<blockquote>周一美国市场开盘前的顶线</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-10-18 19:53</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Oct&nbsp;18)&nbsp;Stock futures fell Monday morning to give back some gains after theS&amp;P 500's best week since July, with investors' concerns over elevated inflation offsetting hopes that more companies will follow the lead of the big banks last week and post strong quarterly earnings results.</p><p><blockquote>（10月18日）周一上午，在标准普尔500指数创下7月以来最好的一周后，股指期货下跌，回吐部分涨幅，投资者对通胀上升的担忧抵消了更多公司将效仿上周大银行并公布强劲季度收益的希望结果。</blockquote></p><p> At 07:55 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were down 114 points, or 0.32%, S&amp;P 500 e-minis were down 13 points, or 0.29%, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">Nasdaq</a> 100 e-minis were down 29.5 points, or 0.19%.</p><p><blockquote>截至美国东部时间上午07:55，道琼斯电子迷你指数下跌114点，跌幅0.32%，标普500电子迷你指数下跌13点，跌幅0.29%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">纳斯达克</a>100辆e-mini下跌29.5点，跌幅0.19%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b70366d9fa5fd9b7e99f325a5de0e9d\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"509\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Stocks making the biggest moves in the premarket:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盘前涨幅最大的股票：</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a> shares erased earlier losses and climbed as much as 4.3% in Hong Kong, as <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">China</a> debates rules to make hundreds of millions of articles on Tencent’s WeChat messaging app available via search engines like Baidu’s.</li>  <li>Crypto-related stocks in action as Bitcoin leaps as much as 5.3% and is just shy of a fresh six-month high. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIOT\">Riot Blockchain, Inc.</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MARA\">Marathon Digital Holdings Inc</a> and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">Coinbase Global, Inc.</a>&nbsp;are all up.</li>  <li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla Motors</a> shares rise 0.2% in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading Monday, poised for 50% rally from a March 8 low, ahead of its third-quarter results on Wednesday.</li>  <li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DVAX\">Dynavax</a> shares rise as much as 10% in U.S. pre-trading hours after the biopharmaceutical company announced that Valneva reported the trial of inactivated, adjuvanted Covid-19 vaccine candidate VLA2001 met its co-primary endpoints</li>  <li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIS\">Walt Disney</a> drops in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading after Barclays downgrades to equal-weight as the company faces a “tough” task to get to its long-term streaming subscription guidance.</li>  <li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTAP\">NetApp</a> slips 2.2% in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading after <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a> analyst Rod Hall cut the recommendation on NetApp Inc. to sell from neutral.</li> </ul> <b>In FX, </b>the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index advanced as the dollar traded higher versus all of its Group-of-10 peers Traders pulled forward rate- hike bets after BoE governor Bailey said the central bank “will have to act” on inflation. U.K. money markets now see 36 basis points of BoE rate increases in December and are pricing 15 basis points of tightening next month. Traders are also now betting the BoE’s key rate will rise to 1% by August, from 0.1% currently. The euro struggled to recover after falling below the $1.16 handle in the Asian session; money markets are betting the ECB will hike the deposit rate to -0.4% in September as expectations for global central-bank policy tightening gather pace. Resilience in the spot market and a divergence with rate differentials in the past sessions has resulted in a flatter volatility skew for the euro.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>香港股市收复早前跌幅，上涨4.3%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">中国</a>辩论通过百度等搜索引擎提供腾讯控股微信消息应用程序上数亿篇文章的规则。</li><li>随着比特币股价上涨5.3%，接近六个月新高，加密货币相关股票纷纷上涨。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIOT\">防暴区块链公司。</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MARA\">马拉松数字控股公司</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">比特币基地全球公司。</a>都起来了。</li><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>周一盘前交易中，该股上涨0.2%，在周三公布第三季度业绩之前，有望较3月8日低点上涨50%。</li><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DVAX\">Dynavax</a>生物制药公司Valneva宣布灭活佐剂Covid-19候选疫苗VLA2001的试验达到了其共同主要终点后，该公司股价在美国盘前交易时段上涨了10%</li><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIS\">迪斯尼</a>巴克莱银行将评级下调至同等权重后，盘前交易下跌，因为该公司面临着实现长期流媒体订阅指导的“艰巨”任务。</li><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTAP\">NetApp</a>盘前交易下跌2.2%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>分析师Rod Hall将NetApp Inc.的评级从中性下调至卖出。</li></ul><b>在FX中，</b>彭博美元现货指数上涨，美元兑所有10国集团同行走高，在英国央行行长贝利表示央行“将不得不对通胀采取行动”后，交易员撤回了远期加息押注。英国货币市场目前预计英国央行12月份将加息36个基点，并预计下个月将收紧15个基点。交易员现在还押注英国央行的关键利率将从目前的0.1%升至8月份的1%。欧元在亚洲时段跌破1.16美元关口后难以回升；随着全球央行政策收紧的预期加快，货币市场押注欧洲央行将在9月份将存款利率上调至-0.4%。现货市场的弹性以及过去几个交易日与利差的背离导致欧元的波动性趋于平缓。</blockquote></p><p> <b>In rates, </b>treasuries were under pressure led by belly of the curve as rate-hike premium continues to increase in global interest rates. Yields, though off session highs, remain cheaper by nearly 5bp in 5-year sector; 2s5s30s fly topped at -12.5bp, cheapest since 2018; 10-year is up 2.8bp around 1.60% vs 3.4bp increase for U.K. 10-year. Belly-led losses flattened U.S. 5s30s by as much as 5.4bp to tightest since April 2020 at around 86.1bp; U.K. 5s30s curve is flatter by ~8bp after its 5-year yield rose as much as 14bp.</p><p><blockquote><b>在费率方面，</b>随着全球利率加息溢价持续上升，美国国债面临曲线腹部带来的压力。5年期国债收益率虽然脱离盘中高点，但仍便宜近5个基点；2s5s30s最高为-12.5个基点，为2018年以来最便宜；10年期国债上涨2.8个基点，约为1.60%，而英国10年期国债上涨3.4个基点。腹部主导的下跌使美国5S30指数下跌5.4个基点，至2020年4月以来的最低水平，约为86.1个基点；英国5年期国债收益率上涨14bp后，5s30s曲线平坦了约8bp。</blockquote></p><p> Gilts led the move, with U.K. 2-year yield climbing as much as 16.8bp to highest since May 2019 as money markets priced in more policy tightening after Governor Andrew Bailey said the Bank of England “will have to act” on inflation. With latest moves, U.S. swaps market prices in two Fed hikes by the end of 2022.</p><p><blockquote>英国国债领涨，英国2年期国债收益率攀升16.8个基点，至2019年5月以来的最高水平，因为在行长安德鲁·贝利(Andrew Bailey)表示英国央行“将不得不对通胀采取行动”后，货币市场消化了更多政策收紧的影响。根据最新举措，美国将在2022年底前两次美联储加息中交换市场价格。</blockquote></p><p> <b>In commodities, </b>WTI rose 1%, trading just off session highs near $83.20; Brent holds above $85. Spot gold drifts lower near $1,762/oz. Most base metals are in the green with LME lead and tin outperforming.</p><p><blockquote><b>在大宗商品中，</b>WTI上涨1%，交易价格略低于83.20美元附近的盘中高点；布伦特原油维持在85美元上方。现货黄金在1762美元/盎司附近走低。大多数基本金属呈绿色，LME铅和锡表现优于大盘。</blockquote></p><p> Looking at today's calendar, we have industrial production, US September industrial production, capacity utilisation, October NAHB housing market index. Fed speakers include Quarles, Kashkari.</p><p><blockquote>看看今天的日历，我们有工业生产、美国9月工业生产、产能利用率、10月NAHB房地产市场指数。美联储发言人包括夸尔斯、卡什卡利。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1189411842","content_text":"(Oct 18) Stock futures fell Monday morning to give back some gains after theS&P 500's best week since July, with investors' concerns over elevated inflation offsetting hopes that more companies will follow the lead of the big banks last week and post strong quarterly earnings results.\nAt 07:55 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were down 114 points, or 0.32%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 13 points, or 0.29%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 29.5 points, or 0.19%.\n\nStocks making the biggest moves in the premarket:\n\nBaidu shares erased earlier losses and climbed as much as 4.3% in Hong Kong, as China debates rules to make hundreds of millions of articles on Tencent’s WeChat messaging app available via search engines like Baidu’s.\nCrypto-related stocks in action as Bitcoin leaps as much as 5.3% and is just shy of a fresh six-month high. Riot Blockchain, Inc., Marathon Digital Holdings Inc and Coinbase Global, Inc. are all up.\nTesla Motors shares rise 0.2% in premarket trading Monday, poised for 50% rally from a March 8 low, ahead of its third-quarter results on Wednesday.\nDynavax shares rise as much as 10% in U.S. pre-trading hours after the biopharmaceutical company announced that Valneva reported the trial of inactivated, adjuvanted Covid-19 vaccine candidate VLA2001 met its co-primary endpoints\nWalt Disney drops in premarket trading after Barclays downgrades to equal-weight as the company faces a “tough” task to get to its long-term streaming subscription guidance.\nNetApp slips 2.2% in premarket trading after Goldman Sachs analyst Rod Hall cut the recommendation on NetApp Inc. to sell from neutral.\n\nIn FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index advanced as the dollar traded higher versus all of its Group-of-10 peers Traders pulled forward rate- hike bets after BoE governor Bailey said the central bank “will have to act” on inflation. U.K. money markets now see 36 basis points of BoE rate increases in December and are pricing 15 basis points of tightening next month. Traders are also now betting the BoE’s key rate will rise to 1% by August, from 0.1% currently. The euro struggled to recover after falling below the $1.16 handle in the Asian session; money markets are betting the ECB will hike the deposit rate to -0.4% in September as expectations for global central-bank policy tightening gather pace. Resilience in the spot market and a divergence with rate differentials in the past sessions has resulted in a flatter volatility skew for the euro.\nIn rates, treasuries were under pressure led by belly of the curve as rate-hike premium continues to increase in global interest rates. Yields, though off session highs, remain cheaper by nearly 5bp in 5-year sector; 2s5s30s fly topped at -12.5bp, cheapest since 2018; 10-year is up 2.8bp around 1.60% vs 3.4bp increase for U.K. 10-year. Belly-led losses flattened U.S. 5s30s by as much as 5.4bp to tightest since April 2020 at around 86.1bp; U.K. 5s30s curve is flatter by ~8bp after its 5-year yield rose as much as 14bp.\nGilts led the move, with U.K. 2-year yield climbing as much as 16.8bp to highest since May 2019 as money markets priced in more policy tightening after Governor Andrew Bailey said the Bank of England “will have to act” on inflation. With latest moves, U.S. swaps market prices in two Fed hikes by the end of 2022.\nIn commodities, WTI rose 1%, trading just off session highs near $83.20; Brent holds above $85. Spot gold drifts lower near $1,762/oz. Most base metals are in the green with LME lead and tin outperforming.\nLooking at today's calendar, we have industrial production, US September industrial production, capacity utilisation, October NAHB housing market index. Fed speakers include Quarles, Kashkari.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3888,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":165363199,"gmtCreate":1624096734311,"gmtModify":1634010724659,"author":{"id":"3582016577975526","authorId":"3582016577975526","name":"ivanlam","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b69aadeaeb7dadd4cee48a1d48771644","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582016577975526","authorIdStr":"3582016577975526"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment","listText":"Comment","text":"Comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":18,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/165363199","repostId":"1161408410","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":641,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":827849368,"gmtCreate":1634448616106,"gmtModify":1634448674096,"author":{"id":"3582016577975526","authorId":"3582016577975526","name":"ivanlam","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b69aadeaeb7dadd4cee48a1d48771644","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582016577975526","authorIdStr":"3582016577975526"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":17,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/827849368","repostId":"2175146556","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2824,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":820987931,"gmtCreate":1633341814036,"gmtModify":1633342030501,"author":{"id":"3582016577975526","authorId":"3582016577975526","name":"ivanlam","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b69aadeaeb7dadd4cee48a1d48771644","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582016577975526","authorIdStr":"3582016577975526"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":16,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/820987931","repostId":"1145326625","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1145326625","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633340927,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1145326625?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-04 17:48","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nike, Under Armour and others face supply problems in Vietnam<blockquote>耐克、安德玛等公司在越南面临供应问题</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1145326625","media":"CNN","summary":"New York (CNN)Surging shopper demand coupled with shipping container shortages and bottlenecks at po","content":"<p>New York (CNN)Surging shopper demand coupled with shipping container shortages and bottlenecks at ports have already triggered tighter supply of products, from cars to shoes.</p><p><blockquote>纽约（CNN）购物者需求激增，加上集装箱短缺和港口瓶颈，已经引发了从汽车到鞋子等产品的供应紧张。</blockquote></p><p> In particular, some of America's biggest sellers of clothing and shoes cite one catalyst that has compounded the pressure: factory closures in Vietnam stemming from a second wave of the coronavirus outbreak there. That's led brands from PacSun to Nike to warn about the effects on their supply.</p><p><blockquote>特别是，美国一些最大的服装和鞋类销售商列举了加剧压力的一个催化剂：越南第二波冠状病毒爆发导致工厂关闭。这导致从PacSun到Nike等品牌警告其供应受到影响。</blockquote></p><p> In late September, Nike (NKE) cut its full-year sales outlook due to supply chain issues, despite its CEO noting strong consumer demand.</p><p><blockquote>9月下旬，耐克(NKE)因供应链问题下调了全年销售预期，尽管其首席执行官指出消费者需求强劲。</blockquote></p><p> Nike makes about three-quarters of its shoes in Southeast Asia, with 51% and 24% of manufacturing in Vietnam and Indonesia respectively.</p><p><blockquote>耐克约四分之三的鞋子在东南亚生产，越南和印度尼西亚分别占51%和24%。</blockquote></p><p> But as the Vietnam government imposed pandemic-related restrictions, including a mandatory shutdown of factories for several weeks from July into September, Nike said it incurred 10 weeks of lost production.</p><p><blockquote>但由于越南政府实施了与大流行相关的限制，包括从7月到9月强制关闭工厂数周，耐克表示，该公司遭受了10周的生产损失。</blockquote></p><p> Even when factories start to reopen, which the company expects to happen in phases beginning in October, ramping up to full production could take several months, Nike's chief financial officer Matthew Friend said in a recent earnings call. Half of Nike's clothing factories in Vietnam are currently closed, company executives said during that call.</p><p><blockquote>耐克首席财务官Matthew Friend在最近的财报看涨期权上表示，即使工厂开始重新开放（该公司预计从10月份开始分阶段重新开放），全面生产也可能需要几个月的时间。耐克公司高管在看涨期权期间表示，目前耐克在越南的一半服装厂已经关闭。</blockquote></p><p> Vietnam accounts for a third of sports brand Under Armour's footwear and clothing production. Under Armour (UA)'s CEO Patrik Frisk said during its most recent earnings call in August that it was closely monitoring impact of factory shutdowns there on its supply chain there, calling it a \"developing situation.\"</p><p><blockquote>越南占运动品牌安德玛鞋类和服装产量的三分之一。Under Armour(UA)首席执行官Patrik Frisk在8月份最近一次财报看涨期权上表示，该公司正在密切关注工厂关闭对其供应链的影响，称其为“发展中的情况”。</blockquote></p><p> Ugg, Coach and Michael Kors have exposure</p><p><blockquote>Ugg、Coach和Michael Kors都有曝光</blockquote></p><p> Vietnam is a crucial supplier to the US in particular for apparel and footwear.</p><p><blockquote>越南是美国的重要供应商，尤其是服装和鞋类。</blockquote></p><p> \"It's a very big partner of the United States. It's our second largest source of apparel and footwear,\" said Steve Lamar, president and CEO of the American Apparel and Footwear Association, an industry group. China is the largest supplier of clothing and shoes, according to the AAFA.</p><p><blockquote>“它是美国非常大的合作伙伴。它是我们服装和鞋类的第二大来源，”行业组织美国服装和鞋类协会的总裁兼首席执行官史蒂夫·拉马尔说。根据AAFA的数据，中国是最大的服装和鞋子供应国。</blockquote></p><p> In July, Vietnam was caught in the throes of a coronavirus outbreak caused by a suspected new variant of the virus, which Vietnam's health minister said led to a fast spread of new infections in the nation's industrial zones.</p><p><blockquote>7月，越南陷入了由疑似病毒新变种引起的冠状病毒爆发的阵痛，越南卫生部长表示，这导致该国工业区新感染病例迅速蔓延。</blockquote></p><p> The government subsequently imposed strict lockdowns and temporarily shut factories there until mid-August, then extended it into September. Some factories are still closed.</p><p><blockquote>政府随后实施了严格的封锁，并暂时关闭了那里的工厂，直到8月中旬，然后延长到9月。一些工厂仍然关闭。</blockquote></p><p> All of this means that production for everything from sneakers and sandals to jeans, dresses, T-shirts, jackets and more is stalled.</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都意味着从运动鞋和凉鞋到牛仔裤、连衣裙、T恤、夹克等各种产品的生产都陷入停滞。</blockquote></p><p> In a research note last month, BITG analyst Camilo Lyon said athletic footwear brands such as Nike and Adidas are most at risk of having serious supply chain disruptions because \"Vietnam has served as a strong manufacturing alternative to China in recent years.\"</p><p><blockquote>BITG分析师卡米洛·里昂(Camilo Lyon)在上个月的一份研究报告中表示，耐克和阿迪达斯等运动鞋品牌面临的供应链严重中断的风险最大，因为“近年来，越南一直是中国的强大制造替代品”。</blockquote></p><p> Other brands that have significant manufacturing exposure to Vietnam, he said, include Ugg maker Deckers Outdoor (DECK), Columbia Sportswear, Coach parent Tapestry (TPR) and Capri Holdings (which owns the Michael Kors brand).</p><p><blockquote>他说，其他在越南拥有大量制造业务的品牌包括Ugg制造商Deckers Outdoor(DECK)、Columbia Sportswear、Coach母公司Tapestry(TPR)和Capri Holdings（拥有Michael Kors品牌）。</blockquote></p><p> Lyon estimates it may take five to six months for factories in Vietnam to be back up and running normally when the lockdown ends. And whenever they do come back on line, he anticipates another issue: staffing.</p><p><blockquote>里昂估计，封锁结束后，越南的工厂可能需要五到六个月的时间才能恢复正常运行。每当他们重新上线时，他都会预料到另一个问题：人员配备。</blockquote></p><p> \"Vietnamese factories will also likely have trouble getting workers to come back to work post-lockdown,\" he said.</p><p><blockquote>“越南工厂也可能很难让工人在封锁后重返工作岗位，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Teen retailer PacSun is expecting an impact to the holiday season.</p><p><blockquote>青少年零售商PacSun预计这将对假期产生影响。</blockquote></p><p> Brieane Olson, president of PacSun, said in an interview in August with CNNBusiness that about 10% of its goods are sourced from Vietnam.</p><p><blockquote>PacSun总裁Brieane Olson在8月份接受CNNBusiness采访时表示，其约10%的商品来自越南。</blockquote></p><p> Olson said the retailer was already dealing with a two-to-four week delay for its back-to-school inventory this year because of the ongoing global supply chain delays.</p><p><blockquote>奥尔森表示，由于全球供应链持续延迟，该零售商今年的返校库存已经面临两到四周的延迟。</blockquote></p><p> Now, she said, new products for the winter and holiday season is likely to also face another four-week delay, she said, making it a challenge to get new fashions and styles in jeans, tops, sweaters and sweatshirts into stores in a timely manner.</p><p><blockquote>她说，现在，冬季和假日季的新产品也可能面临另外四周的延迟，这使得牛仔裤、上衣、毛衣和运动衫的新时尚和款式及时进入商店成为一项挑战。</blockquote></p><p> And there's an additional effect on the consumer, Olson said: Having less product means the retailer will pull back on discounts \"because there is no need for it,\" she said.</p><p><blockquote>奥尔森说，这对消费者还有额外的影响：产品减少意味着零售商将取消折扣，“因为没有必要”。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nike, Under Armour and others face supply problems in Vietnam<blockquote>耐克、安德玛等公司在越南面临供应问题</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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That's led brands from PacSun to Nike to warn about the effects on their supply.</p><p><blockquote>特别是，美国一些最大的服装和鞋类销售商列举了加剧压力的一个催化剂：越南第二波冠状病毒爆发导致工厂关闭。这导致从PacSun到Nike等品牌警告其供应受到影响。</blockquote></p><p> In late September, Nike (NKE) cut its full-year sales outlook due to supply chain issues, despite its CEO noting strong consumer demand.</p><p><blockquote>9月下旬，耐克(NKE)因供应链问题下调了全年销售预期，尽管其首席执行官指出消费者需求强劲。</blockquote></p><p> Nike makes about three-quarters of its shoes in Southeast Asia, with 51% and 24% of manufacturing in Vietnam and Indonesia respectively.</p><p><blockquote>耐克约四分之三的鞋子在东南亚生产，越南和印度尼西亚分别占51%和24%。</blockquote></p><p> But as the Vietnam government imposed pandemic-related restrictions, including a mandatory shutdown of factories for several weeks from July into September, Nike said it incurred 10 weeks of lost production.</p><p><blockquote>但由于越南政府实施了与大流行相关的限制，包括从7月到9月强制关闭工厂数周，耐克表示，该公司遭受了10周的生产损失。</blockquote></p><p> Even when factories start to reopen, which the company expects to happen in phases beginning in October, ramping up to full production could take several months, Nike's chief financial officer Matthew Friend said in a recent earnings call. Half of Nike's clothing factories in Vietnam are currently closed, company executives said during that call.</p><p><blockquote>耐克首席财务官Matthew Friend在最近的财报看涨期权上表示，即使工厂开始重新开放（该公司预计从10月份开始分阶段重新开放），全面生产也可能需要几个月的时间。耐克公司高管在看涨期权期间表示，目前耐克在越南的一半服装厂已经关闭。</blockquote></p><p> Vietnam accounts for a third of sports brand Under Armour's footwear and clothing production. Under Armour (UA)'s CEO Patrik Frisk said during its most recent earnings call in August that it was closely monitoring impact of factory shutdowns there on its supply chain there, calling it a \"developing situation.\"</p><p><blockquote>越南占运动品牌安德玛鞋类和服装产量的三分之一。Under Armour(UA)首席执行官Patrik Frisk在8月份最近一次财报看涨期权上表示，该公司正在密切关注工厂关闭对其供应链的影响，称其为“发展中的情况”。</blockquote></p><p> Ugg, Coach and Michael Kors have exposure</p><p><blockquote>Ugg、Coach和Michael Kors都有曝光</blockquote></p><p> Vietnam is a crucial supplier to the US in particular for apparel and footwear.</p><p><blockquote>越南是美国的重要供应商，尤其是服装和鞋类。</blockquote></p><p> \"It's a very big partner of the United States. It's our second largest source of apparel and footwear,\" said Steve Lamar, president and CEO of the American Apparel and Footwear Association, an industry group. China is the largest supplier of clothing and shoes, according to the AAFA.</p><p><blockquote>“它是美国非常大的合作伙伴。它是我们服装和鞋类的第二大来源，”行业组织美国服装和鞋类协会的总裁兼首席执行官史蒂夫·拉马尔说。根据AAFA的数据，中国是最大的服装和鞋子供应国。</blockquote></p><p> In July, Vietnam was caught in the throes of a coronavirus outbreak caused by a suspected new variant of the virus, which Vietnam's health minister said led to a fast spread of new infections in the nation's industrial zones.</p><p><blockquote>7月，越南陷入了由疑似病毒新变种引起的冠状病毒爆发的阵痛，越南卫生部长表示，这导致该国工业区新感染病例迅速蔓延。</blockquote></p><p> The government subsequently imposed strict lockdowns and temporarily shut factories there until mid-August, then extended it into September. Some factories are still closed.</p><p><blockquote>政府随后实施了严格的封锁，并暂时关闭了那里的工厂，直到8月中旬，然后延长到9月。一些工厂仍然关闭。</blockquote></p><p> All of this means that production for everything from sneakers and sandals to jeans, dresses, T-shirts, jackets and more is stalled.</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都意味着从运动鞋和凉鞋到牛仔裤、连衣裙、T恤、夹克等各种产品的生产都陷入停滞。</blockquote></p><p> In a research note last month, BITG analyst Camilo Lyon said athletic footwear brands such as Nike and Adidas are most at risk of having serious supply chain disruptions because \"Vietnam has served as a strong manufacturing alternative to China in recent years.\"</p><p><blockquote>BITG分析师卡米洛·里昂(Camilo Lyon)在上个月的一份研究报告中表示，耐克和阿迪达斯等运动鞋品牌面临的供应链严重中断的风险最大，因为“近年来，越南一直是中国的强大制造替代品”。</blockquote></p><p> Other brands that have significant manufacturing exposure to Vietnam, he said, include Ugg maker Deckers Outdoor (DECK), Columbia Sportswear, Coach parent Tapestry (TPR) and Capri Holdings (which owns the Michael Kors brand).</p><p><blockquote>他说，其他在越南拥有大量制造业务的品牌包括Ugg制造商Deckers Outdoor(DECK)、Columbia Sportswear、Coach母公司Tapestry(TPR)和Capri Holdings（拥有Michael Kors品牌）。</blockquote></p><p> Lyon estimates it may take five to six months for factories in Vietnam to be back up and running normally when the lockdown ends. And whenever they do come back on line, he anticipates another issue: staffing.</p><p><blockquote>里昂估计，封锁结束后，越南的工厂可能需要五到六个月的时间才能恢复正常运行。每当他们重新上线时，他都会预料到另一个问题：人员配备。</blockquote></p><p> \"Vietnamese factories will also likely have trouble getting workers to come back to work post-lockdown,\" he said.</p><p><blockquote>“越南工厂也可能很难让工人在封锁后重返工作岗位，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Teen retailer PacSun is expecting an impact to the holiday season.</p><p><blockquote>青少年零售商PacSun预计这将对假期产生影响。</blockquote></p><p> Brieane Olson, president of PacSun, said in an interview in August with CNNBusiness that about 10% of its goods are sourced from Vietnam.</p><p><blockquote>PacSun总裁Brieane Olson在8月份接受CNNBusiness采访时表示，其约10%的商品来自越南。</blockquote></p><p> Olson said the retailer was already dealing with a two-to-four week delay for its back-to-school inventory this year because of the ongoing global supply chain delays.</p><p><blockquote>奥尔森表示，由于全球供应链持续延迟，该零售商今年的返校库存已经面临两到四周的延迟。</blockquote></p><p> Now, she said, new products for the winter and holiday season is likely to also face another four-week delay, she said, making it a challenge to get new fashions and styles in jeans, tops, sweaters and sweatshirts into stores in a timely manner.</p><p><blockquote>她说，现在，冬季和假日季的新产品也可能面临另外四周的延迟，这使得牛仔裤、上衣、毛衣和运动衫的新时尚和款式及时进入商店成为一项挑战。</blockquote></p><p> And there's an additional effect on the consumer, Olson said: Having less product means the retailer will pull back on discounts \"because there is no need for it,\" she said.</p><p><blockquote>奥尔森说，这对消费者还有额外的影响：产品减少意味着零售商将取消折扣，“因为没有必要”。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/02/business/vietnam-supply-chain-disruptions/index.html\">CNN</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NKE":"耐克","TPR":"Tapestry Inc.","DECK":"Deckers Outdoor Corporation","CPRI":"Capri Holdings Ltd"},"source_url":"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/02/business/vietnam-supply-chain-disruptions/index.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1145326625","content_text":"New York (CNN)Surging shopper demand coupled with shipping container shortages and bottlenecks at ports have already triggered tighter supply of products, from cars to shoes.\nIn particular, some of America's biggest sellers of clothing and shoes cite one catalyst that has compounded the pressure: factory closures in Vietnam stemming from a second wave of the coronavirus outbreak there. That's led brands from PacSun to Nike to warn about the effects on their supply.\nIn late September, Nike (NKE) cut its full-year sales outlook due to supply chain issues, despite its CEO noting strong consumer demand.\nNike makes about three-quarters of its shoes in Southeast Asia, with 51% and 24% of manufacturing in Vietnam and Indonesia respectively.\nBut as the Vietnam government imposed pandemic-related restrictions, including a mandatory shutdown of factories for several weeks from July into September, Nike said it incurred 10 weeks of lost production.\nEven when factories start to reopen, which the company expects to happen in phases beginning in October, ramping up to full production could take several months, Nike's chief financial officer Matthew Friend said in a recent earnings call. Half of Nike's clothing factories in Vietnam are currently closed, company executives said during that call.\nVietnam accounts for a third of sports brand Under Armour's footwear and clothing production. Under Armour (UA)'s CEO Patrik Frisk said during its most recent earnings call in August that it was closely monitoring impact of factory shutdowns there on its supply chain there, calling it a \"developing situation.\"\nUgg, Coach and Michael Kors have exposure\nVietnam is a crucial supplier to the US in particular for apparel and footwear.\n\"It's a very big partner of the United States. It's our second largest source of apparel and footwear,\" said Steve Lamar, president and CEO of the American Apparel and Footwear Association, an industry group. China is the largest supplier of clothing and shoes, according to the AAFA.\nIn July, Vietnam was caught in the throes of a coronavirus outbreak caused by a suspected new variant of the virus, which Vietnam's health minister said led to a fast spread of new infections in the nation's industrial zones.\nThe government subsequently imposed strict lockdowns and temporarily shut factories there until mid-August, then extended it into September. Some factories are still closed.\nAll of this means that production for everything from sneakers and sandals to jeans, dresses, T-shirts, jackets and more is stalled.\nIn a research note last month, BITG analyst Camilo Lyon said athletic footwear brands such as Nike and Adidas are most at risk of having serious supply chain disruptions because \"Vietnam has served as a strong manufacturing alternative to China in recent years.\"\nOther brands that have significant manufacturing exposure to Vietnam, he said, include Ugg maker Deckers Outdoor (DECK), Columbia Sportswear, Coach parent Tapestry (TPR) and Capri Holdings (which owns the Michael Kors brand).\nLyon estimates it may take five to six months for factories in Vietnam to be back up and running normally when the lockdown ends. And whenever they do come back on line, he anticipates another issue: staffing.\n\"Vietnamese factories will also likely have trouble getting workers to come back to work post-lockdown,\" he said.\nTeen retailer PacSun is expecting an impact to the holiday season.\nBrieane Olson, president of PacSun, said in an interview in August with CNNBusiness that about 10% of its goods are sourced from Vietnam.\nOlson said the retailer was already dealing with a two-to-four week delay for its back-to-school inventory this year because of the ongoing global supply chain delays.\nNow, she said, new products for the winter and holiday season is likely to also face another four-week delay, she said, making it a challenge to get new fashions and styles in jeans, tops, sweaters and sweatshirts into stores in a timely manner.\nAnd there's an additional effect on the consumer, Olson said: Having less product means the retailer will pull back on discounts \"because there is no need for it,\" she said.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CPRI":0.9,"TPR":0.9,"DECK":0.9,"NKE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":748,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":883517723,"gmtCreate":1631254550662,"gmtModify":1631889774085,"author":{"id":"3582016577975526","authorId":"3582016577975526","name":"ivanlam","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b69aadeaeb7dadd4cee48a1d48771644","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582016577975526","authorIdStr":"3582016577975526"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":16,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/883517723","repostId":"2166345008","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":466,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":814587566,"gmtCreate":1630845669255,"gmtModify":1632905598172,"author":{"id":"3582016577975526","authorId":"3582016577975526","name":"ivanlam","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b69aadeaeb7dadd4cee48a1d48771644","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582016577975526","authorIdStr":"3582016577975526"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":16,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/814587566","repostId":"1157895022","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1157895022","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630810619,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1157895022?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-05 10:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Beat the market with this quant system that’s very bullish on stocks at record highs<blockquote>利用这个非常看好历史新高股票的量化系统击败市场</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157895022","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Vance Howard’s HCM Tactical Growth Fund moves you in and out of the stock market when prudent to do ","content":"<p>  <b>Vance Howard’s HCM Tactical Growth Fund moves you in and out of the stock market when prudent to do so. So far his team of computer scientists’ strategy has paid off.</b>  Imagine you had a money-making machine to harvest gains in the stock market while you sat back to enjoy life.</p><p><blockquote><b>万斯·霍华德(Vance Howard)的HCM战术增长基金在谨慎的情况下让您进出股市。到目前为止，他的计算机科学家团队的策略已经得到了回报。</b>想象一下，当你坐下来享受生活时，你有一台赚钱机器在股市中收获收益。</blockquote></p><p> That’s everyone’s dream, right? Investor Vance Howard thinks he’s found it.</p><p><blockquote>那是每个人的梦想，对吧？投资者万斯·霍华德认为他已经找到了。</blockquote></p><p> Howard and his small army of computer programmers atHoward Capital Managementin Roswell, Ga., have a quantitative system that posts great returns.</p><p><blockquote>霍华德和他的一小队计算机程序员在佐治亚州罗斯威尔的资本管理公司工作。，有一个量化系统，张贴巨大的回报。</blockquote></p><p> His HCM Tactical Growth Fund&nbsp;HCMGX,+0.35%beats its Russell 1000&nbsp;benchmark index and large-blend fund category by 8.5-10.4 percentage points annualized over the past five years, according to Morningstar. That is no small feat, and not only because it has to overcome a 2.22% fee. Beating the market is simply not easy. His HCM Dividend Sector PlusHCMQX,-0.05%) and HCM Income PlusHCMLX,+0.30%funds post similar outperformance.</p><p><blockquote>根据晨星公司的数据，他的HCM战术增长基金HCMGX,+0.35%在过去五年中的年化增长率比罗素1000基准指数和大型混合基金类别高出8.5-10.4个百分点。这不是一个小壮举，不仅因为它必须克服2.22%的费用。战胜市场并不容易。他的HCM Dividend Sector PlusHCMQX,-0.05%)和HCM Income PlusHCMLX,+0.30%基金也表现类似。</blockquote></p><p> There are drawbacks, which I detail below. (Among them: Potentially long stretches of underperformance and regular tax bills.) But first, what can we learn from this winner?</p><p><blockquote>有缺点，我在下面详述。（其中包括：潜在的长期表现不佳和定期的税单。）但首先，我们能从这位赢家身上学到什么？</blockquote></p><p> So-called quants never share all the details of their proprietary systems, but Howard shares a lot, as you’ll see. And this Texas rancher has a lot of good advice based on “horse sense” — not surprising, given his infectious passion for the markets, and his three decades of experience as a pro.</p><p><blockquote>所谓的量化分析师从不分享他们专有系统的所有细节，但正如你将看到的，霍华德分享了很多。这位德克萨斯州牧场主有很多基于“马的感觉”的好建议——考虑到他对市场富有感染力的热情，以及他三十年的职业经验，这并不奇怪。</blockquote></p><p> Here are five lessons, 12 exchange traded funds (ETFs) and four stocks to consider, from a recent interview with him.</p><p><blockquote>以下是最近对他的采访中的五个教训、12只交易所交易基金(ETF)和四只值得考虑的股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #1: Don’t be emotional</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第一课：不要情绪化</b></blockquote></p><p> It’s no surprise so many people do poorly in the market. Evolution has programmed us to fail. For survival, we’ve learned to run from things that frightens us. And crave more of things that are pleasurable — like sweets or fats to store calories ahead of what might be a long stretch without food. But in the market, acting on the emotions of fear and greed invariably make us do the wrong thing at the wrong time. Sell at the bottom, buy at the top.</p><p><blockquote>难怪这么多人在市场上表现不佳。进化让我们注定要失败。为了生存，我们学会了逃避让我们害怕的事情。渴望更多令人愉快的东西——比如甜食或脂肪，以便在长时间没有食物之前储存卡路里。但在市场中，对恐惧和贪婪的情绪采取行动总是会让我们在错误的时间做错误的事情。底部卖出，顶部买入。</blockquote></p><p> Likewise, we’re programmed to believe being with the crowd brings safety. If you’re a zebra on the Savanna, you are more likely to get picked off by a predator if you go it alone. The problem here is being part of a crowd — and crowd psychology — dumb us down to a purely emotional level. This is why people in crowds do terrible things they would never do on their own. It doesn’t matter how smart you are. When you join a crowd, you lose a lot of IQ points. Base emotions take over.</p><p><blockquote>同样，我们被设定为相信和人群在一起会带来安全。如果你是稀树草原上的斑马，如果你单干，你更有可能被捕食者吃掉。这里的问题是，成为人群的一部分——以及人群心理——让我们变得愚蠢到纯粹的情感层面。这就是为什么人群中的人会做他们自己永远不会做的可怕的事情。你有多聪明并不重要。当你加入一个人群时，你会失去很多智商点。基本情绪占了上风。</blockquote></p><p> To do well in the market, you have to counteract these tendencies. “One of the biggest mistakes individual investors and money managers make is getting emotional,” says Howard. “Let your emotions go.”</p><p><blockquote>要想在市场上做得好，你必须抵制这些倾向。“个人投资者和基金经理犯的最大错误之一就是变得情绪化，”霍华德说。“放下你的情绪。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #2: Have a system and stick to it</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第二课：有一个系统并坚持下去</b></blockquote></p><p> To exorcise emotion, have a system. “And don’t second guess it,” says Howard. “This keeps you from letting the pandemic or Afghanistan scare you out of the market.” He calls his system the HCM-BuyLine. It is basically a momentum and trend-following system — which often works well in the markets.</p><p><blockquote>驱除情绪，要有一个系统。“不要怀疑它，”霍华德说。“这可以防止你被大流行或阿富汗吓出市场。”他评级了他的系统HCM-购买线。它基本上是一个动量和趋势跟踪系统——通常在市场上运行良好。</blockquote></p><p> The HCM-BuyLine basically works like this. First, rather than use the S&amp;P 500SPX,-0.03%or the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.21%,Howard blends several stock indices to create his own index. Then he uses a moving average that tells him whether the market is in an uptrend or downtrend.</p><p><blockquote>HCM-BuyLine基本上是这样工作的。首先，霍华德没有使用标准普尔500SPX（-0.03%）或道琼斯工业平均指数DJIA（-0.21%），而是混合了几个股票指数来创建自己的指数。然后他使用移动平均线来告诉他市场是处于上升趋势还是下降趋势。</blockquote></p><p> When the moving average drops 3.5%, he sells 35%. If it drops 6.5%, he sells another 35%. He rarely goes to 100% cash.</p><p><blockquote>当移动平均线下跌3.5%时，他卖出35%。如果下跌6.5%，他就再卖出35%。他很少100%现金。</blockquote></p><p> “If the BuyLine is positive, we will stay long no matter what,” he says. “We take all the emotion out of the equation by letting the math decide.”</p><p><blockquote>“如果买入线为正，无论如何我们都会长期持有，”他说。“我们通过让数学来决定，将所有情感从等式中剔除。”</blockquote></p><p> Right now, it’s bullish. (More on this below.)</p><p><blockquote>目前，情况看涨。（更多信息见下文。）</blockquote></p><p> Your system also has to tell you when to get back in.</p><p><blockquote>你的系统还必须告诉你什么时候回去。</blockquote></p><p> “That’s where most people screw up,” he says. “They get out of the market, and they don’t know when to get back in.” The HCM-BuyLine gives a buy signal when his custom index trades above its moving average for six consecutive sessions, and then goes on to trade above the high hit during those six days.</p><p><blockquote>“这就是大多数人搞砸的地方，”他说。“他们退出市场，不知道什么时候才能重新进入。”当他的定制指数连续六个交易日高于其移动平均线时，HCM-买入线会发出买入信号，然后继续高于这六天触及的高点。</blockquote></p><p> You don’t need a system that calls exact market tops or bottoms. Instead, the BuyLine keeps Howard out of down markets 85% of the time, and in for 85% of the good times.</p><p><blockquote>你不需要一个评级精确市场顶部或底部的系统。相反，买入线让霍华德在85%的时间里远离低迷的市场，在85%的好时光里远离。</blockquote></p><p> “If we can do that consistently, we have superior returns and a less stressful life,” he says. “Being all in during a bad tape is no fun.”</p><p><blockquote>“如果我们能够始终如一地做到这一点，我们就会获得更高的回报和更少的生活压力，”他说。“在一盘糟糕的磁带中全力以赴一点也不好玩。”</blockquote></p><p> His system is slow to get him out of the market, but quick to get him back in. Not even a 10% correction will necessarily move him out. He’s often buying those pullbacks. Getting back in fast makes sense, because recoveries off bottoms tend to happen fast.</p><p><blockquote>他的系统让他退出市场很慢，但让他回来很快。即使是10%的修正也不一定能让他出局。他经常买入那些回调。快速反弹是有意义的，因为从底部恢复往往会很快。</blockquote></p><p> “The HCM-BuyLine takes all the emotion out of the process,” says Howard.</p><p><blockquote>“HCM-BuyLine消除了整个过程中的所有情绪，”霍华德说。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #3: Don’t fight the tape</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第三课：不要和磁带作对</b></blockquote></p><p> This concept is one of the core pieces of wisdom from Marty Zweig’s classic book, “Winning on Wall Street.”</p><p><blockquote>这一概念是马蒂·茨威格经典著作《在华尔街获胜》中的核心智慧之一。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “You have to stay on the right side of market,” agrees Howard. “If you try to trade long in a bad market, it is painful.”</p><p><blockquote>“你必须站在市场的正确一边，”霍华德表示同意。“如果你试图在糟糕的市场中做多，那是很痛苦的。”</blockquote></p><p> In other words, don’t try to be a hero.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，不要试图成为英雄。</blockquote></p><p> “Sometimes, not losing money is where you want to be,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>“有时候，不赔钱才是你想要的，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Likewise, don’t turn cautious just because the market hits new highs — like now. You should love new highs, because it is a sign of market strength that may likely endure.</p><p><blockquote>同样，不要仅仅因为市场创下新高就变得谨慎——就像现在这样。你应该喜欢新高，因为这是市场力量的标志，可能会持续下去。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #4: Keep it simple</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第四课：保持简单</b></blockquote></p><p> As you’ll see below, Howard doesn’t use esoteric instruments such as derivatives, swaps or index options. He doesn’t even trade foreign stocks or currencies. This is refreshing for individual investors, because we have a harder time accessing those tools.</p><p><blockquote>正如您将在下面看到的，霍华德不使用衍生品、掉期或指数期权等深奥工具。他甚至不交易外国股票或货币。这对个人投资者来说令人耳目一新，因为我们更难获得这些工具。</blockquote></p><p> “You don’t have to trade crazy stuff,” he says. “You can trade plain-vanilla ETFs and beat everybody out there.”</p><p><blockquote>“你不必交易疯狂的东西，”他说。“你可以交易普通的ETF并击败所有人。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #5: How to trade the current market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第5课：如何交易当前市场</b></blockquote></p><p> First, be long.</p><p><blockquote>首先，做长。</blockquote></p><p> “The HCM-BuyLine is very positive. We are 100% in,” says Howard. “The market is broadening out. It is getting pretty exciting. We do not see it turn around any time soon. We are buying pullbacks.”</p><p><blockquote>“HCM-购买线非常积极。我们100%参与，”霍华德说。“市场正在扩大。它变得相当令人兴奋。我们认为它不会很快好转。我们正在买入回调。”</blockquote></p><p> One bullish signal is all the cash on the sidelines. “If there is any relief in Covid, we may see a big rally. We may end up with a great fall [season].”</p><p><blockquote>一个看涨信号是所有现金都在观望。“如果新冠疫情有所缓解，我们可能会看到大幅反弹。我们可能会以一个伟大的秋季[季节]结束。”</blockquote></p><p> Howard uses momentum indicators to select stocks and ETFs, too. For sectors he favors the following.</p><p><blockquote>霍华德也使用动量指标来选择股票和ETF。对于行业，他倾向于以下几点。</blockquote></p><p> He likes health care, tradable through the iShares US HealthcareIYH,-0.04%and ProShares Ultra Health CareRXL,+0.12%ETFs. He’s turning more bullish on biotech, which he plays via the iShares Biotechnology ETFIBB,-0.11%.</p><p><blockquote>他喜欢医疗保健，可通过iShares US HealthcareIYH(-0.04%)和ProShares Ultra Health CareRXL(+0.12%)ETF进行交易。他变得更加看好生物技术，他通过iShares Biotechnology ETFIBB进行投资，-0.11%。</blockquote></p><p> He likes consumer discretionary tradable through the iShares US Consumer ServicesIYC,-0.30%,and airlines via US Global JetsJETS,-1.17%.He also likes tech exposure via the Invesco QQQ TrustQQQ,+0.31%,iShares US TechnologyIYW,+0.50%and&nbsp;iShares SemiconductorSOXX,+0.75%.</p><p><blockquote>他喜欢通过iShares US Consumer ServicesIYC(-0.30%)进行交易的非必需消费品，以及通过US Global JetsJETS(-1.17%)进行交易的航空公司。他还喜欢通过Invesco QQQ TrustQQQ(+0.31%)、iShares US TechnologyIYW(+0.50%)进行科技投资和iShares半导体SOXX，+0.75%。</blockquote></p><p> He likes small-caps via the Vanguard Small-Cap Growth Index FundVBK,+0.07%.And convertible bonds via SPDR Bloomberg Barclays Convertible SecuritiesCWB,+0.64%and iShares Convertible BondICVT,+0.37%.</p><p><blockquote>他喜欢Vanguard Small-Cap Growth Index FundVBK，+0.07%的小盘股。以及SPDR Bloomberg Barclays可转换证券CWB，+0.64%和iShares可转换债券ICVT，+0.37%的可转换债券。</blockquote></p><p> As for individual names, he singles out MicrosoftMSFT,-0.00%and AppleAAPL,+0.42%in tech, as well as Amazon.comAMZN,+0.43%and TeslaTSLA,+0.16%.</p><p><blockquote>至于个人名称，他特别提到了科技股中的微软MSFT(-0.00%)和苹果AAPL(+0.42%)，以及亚马逊MAMZN(+0.43%)和特斯拉TSLA(+0.16%)。</blockquote></p><p> Also consider Howard’s two ETFs: The HCM Defender 100 IndexQQH,+0.62%and HCM Defender 500 IndexLGH,+1.32%.</p><p><blockquote>另请考虑Howard的两只ETF：HCM Defender 100 IndexQQH，+0.62%和HCM Defender 500 IndexLGH，+1.32%。</blockquote></p><p> He prefers to add to holdings on 1%-3% dips.</p><p><blockquote>他更喜欢在下跌1%-3%时增持。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A few drawbacks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>一些缺点</b></blockquote></p><p> His HCM Tactical Growth fund has a history of posting two-year stretches of underperformance of 1.5% to 8.8%, since it was launched in 2015. The fund then came roaring back to net the very positive five-year outperformance cited above. Investing in his system can require patience.</p><p><blockquote>他的HCM战术增长基金自2015年推出以来，曾连续两年表现不佳，涨幅为1.5%至8.8%。随后，该基金卷土重来，实现了上述非常积极的五年优异表现。投资他的系统需要耐心。</blockquote></p><p> Every manager, including Warren Buffett, can have a stretch of underperformance, says Howard.</p><p><blockquote>霍华德说，每个经理人，包括沃伦·巴菲特，都可能有一段时间表现不佳。</blockquote></p><p> “We are in the odds game,” he says. “Even in the odds game, you can have a bad hand or two thrown at you.”</p><p><blockquote>“我们正处于赔率游戏中，”他说。“即使在赔率游戏中，你也可能会遇到一两手糟糕的牌。”</blockquote></p><p> Another challenge is the high turnover, which is 140% a year for Tactical Growth. This means Uncle Sam takes a big cut in the good years. So if you buy Howard’s funds, you may want to do so in a tax-protected account.</p><p><blockquote>另一个挑战是高流动率，战术增长每年140%。这意味着山姆大叔在好年景中会得到很大的提成。因此，如果您购买霍华德的基金，您可能希望在避税账户中购买。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Beat the market with this quant system that’s very bullish on stocks at record highs<blockquote>利用这个非常看好历史新高股票的量化系统击败市场</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBeat the market with this quant system that’s very bullish on stocks at record highs<blockquote>利用这个非常看好历史新高股票的量化系统击败市场</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-05 10:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>Vance Howard’s HCM Tactical Growth Fund moves you in and out of the stock market when prudent to do so. So far his team of computer scientists’ strategy has paid off.</b>  Imagine you had a money-making machine to harvest gains in the stock market while you sat back to enjoy life.</p><p><blockquote><b>万斯·霍华德(Vance Howard)的HCM战术增长基金在谨慎的情况下让您进出股市。到目前为止，他的计算机科学家团队的策略已经得到了回报。</b>想象一下，当你坐下来享受生活时，你有一台赚钱机器在股市中收获收益。</blockquote></p><p> That’s everyone’s dream, right? Investor Vance Howard thinks he’s found it.</p><p><blockquote>那是每个人的梦想，对吧？投资者万斯·霍华德认为他已经找到了。</blockquote></p><p> Howard and his small army of computer programmers atHoward Capital Managementin Roswell, Ga., have a quantitative system that posts great returns.</p><p><blockquote>霍华德和他的一小队计算机程序员在佐治亚州罗斯威尔的资本管理公司工作。，有一个量化系统，张贴巨大的回报。</blockquote></p><p> His HCM Tactical Growth Fund&nbsp;HCMGX,+0.35%beats its Russell 1000&nbsp;benchmark index and large-blend fund category by 8.5-10.4 percentage points annualized over the past five years, according to Morningstar. That is no small feat, and not only because it has to overcome a 2.22% fee. Beating the market is simply not easy. His HCM Dividend Sector PlusHCMQX,-0.05%) and HCM Income PlusHCMLX,+0.30%funds post similar outperformance.</p><p><blockquote>根据晨星公司的数据，他的HCM战术增长基金HCMGX,+0.35%在过去五年中的年化增长率比罗素1000基准指数和大型混合基金类别高出8.5-10.4个百分点。这不是一个小壮举，不仅因为它必须克服2.22%的费用。战胜市场并不容易。他的HCM Dividend Sector PlusHCMQX,-0.05%)和HCM Income PlusHCMLX,+0.30%基金也表现类似。</blockquote></p><p> There are drawbacks, which I detail below. (Among them: Potentially long stretches of underperformance and regular tax bills.) But first, what can we learn from this winner?</p><p><blockquote>有缺点，我在下面详述。（其中包括：潜在的长期表现不佳和定期的税单。）但首先，我们能从这位赢家身上学到什么？</blockquote></p><p> So-called quants never share all the details of their proprietary systems, but Howard shares a lot, as you’ll see. And this Texas rancher has a lot of good advice based on “horse sense” — not surprising, given his infectious passion for the markets, and his three decades of experience as a pro.</p><p><blockquote>所谓的量化分析师从不分享他们专有系统的所有细节，但正如你将看到的，霍华德分享了很多。这位德克萨斯州牧场主有很多基于“马的感觉”的好建议——考虑到他对市场富有感染力的热情，以及他三十年的职业经验，这并不奇怪。</blockquote></p><p> Here are five lessons, 12 exchange traded funds (ETFs) and four stocks to consider, from a recent interview with him.</p><p><blockquote>以下是最近对他的采访中的五个教训、12只交易所交易基金(ETF)和四只值得考虑的股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #1: Don’t be emotional</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第一课：不要情绪化</b></blockquote></p><p> It’s no surprise so many people do poorly in the market. Evolution has programmed us to fail. For survival, we’ve learned to run from things that frightens us. And crave more of things that are pleasurable — like sweets or fats to store calories ahead of what might be a long stretch without food. But in the market, acting on the emotions of fear and greed invariably make us do the wrong thing at the wrong time. Sell at the bottom, buy at the top.</p><p><blockquote>难怪这么多人在市场上表现不佳。进化让我们注定要失败。为了生存，我们学会了逃避让我们害怕的事情。渴望更多令人愉快的东西——比如甜食或脂肪，以便在长时间没有食物之前储存卡路里。但在市场中，对恐惧和贪婪的情绪采取行动总是会让我们在错误的时间做错误的事情。底部卖出，顶部买入。</blockquote></p><p> Likewise, we’re programmed to believe being with the crowd brings safety. If you’re a zebra on the Savanna, you are more likely to get picked off by a predator if you go it alone. The problem here is being part of a crowd — and crowd psychology — dumb us down to a purely emotional level. This is why people in crowds do terrible things they would never do on their own. It doesn’t matter how smart you are. When you join a crowd, you lose a lot of IQ points. Base emotions take over.</p><p><blockquote>同样，我们被设定为相信和人群在一起会带来安全。如果你是稀树草原上的斑马，如果你单干，你更有可能被捕食者吃掉。这里的问题是，成为人群的一部分——以及人群心理——让我们变得愚蠢到纯粹的情感层面。这就是为什么人群中的人会做他们自己永远不会做的可怕的事情。你有多聪明并不重要。当你加入一个人群时，你会失去很多智商点。基本情绪占了上风。</blockquote></p><p> To do well in the market, you have to counteract these tendencies. “One of the biggest mistakes individual investors and money managers make is getting emotional,” says Howard. “Let your emotions go.”</p><p><blockquote>要想在市场上做得好，你必须抵制这些倾向。“个人投资者和基金经理犯的最大错误之一就是变得情绪化，”霍华德说。“放下你的情绪。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #2: Have a system and stick to it</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第二课：有一个系统并坚持下去</b></blockquote></p><p> To exorcise emotion, have a system. “And don’t second guess it,” says Howard. “This keeps you from letting the pandemic or Afghanistan scare you out of the market.” He calls his system the HCM-BuyLine. It is basically a momentum and trend-following system — which often works well in the markets.</p><p><blockquote>驱除情绪，要有一个系统。“不要怀疑它，”霍华德说。“这可以防止你被大流行或阿富汗吓出市场。”他评级了他的系统HCM-购买线。它基本上是一个动量和趋势跟踪系统——通常在市场上运行良好。</blockquote></p><p> The HCM-BuyLine basically works like this. First, rather than use the S&amp;P 500SPX,-0.03%or the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.21%,Howard blends several stock indices to create his own index. Then he uses a moving average that tells him whether the market is in an uptrend or downtrend.</p><p><blockquote>HCM-BuyLine基本上是这样工作的。首先，霍华德没有使用标准普尔500SPX（-0.03%）或道琼斯工业平均指数DJIA（-0.21%），而是混合了几个股票指数来创建自己的指数。然后他使用移动平均线来告诉他市场是处于上升趋势还是下降趋势。</blockquote></p><p> When the moving average drops 3.5%, he sells 35%. If it drops 6.5%, he sells another 35%. He rarely goes to 100% cash.</p><p><blockquote>当移动平均线下跌3.5%时，他卖出35%。如果下跌6.5%，他就再卖出35%。他很少100%现金。</blockquote></p><p> “If the BuyLine is positive, we will stay long no matter what,” he says. “We take all the emotion out of the equation by letting the math decide.”</p><p><blockquote>“如果买入线为正，无论如何我们都会长期持有，”他说。“我们通过让数学来决定，将所有情感从等式中剔除。”</blockquote></p><p> Right now, it’s bullish. (More on this below.)</p><p><blockquote>目前，情况看涨。（更多信息见下文。）</blockquote></p><p> Your system also has to tell you when to get back in.</p><p><blockquote>你的系统还必须告诉你什么时候回去。</blockquote></p><p> “That’s where most people screw up,” he says. “They get out of the market, and they don’t know when to get back in.” The HCM-BuyLine gives a buy signal when his custom index trades above its moving average for six consecutive sessions, and then goes on to trade above the high hit during those six days.</p><p><blockquote>“这就是大多数人搞砸的地方，”他说。“他们退出市场，不知道什么时候才能重新进入。”当他的定制指数连续六个交易日高于其移动平均线时，HCM-买入线会发出买入信号，然后继续高于这六天触及的高点。</blockquote></p><p> You don’t need a system that calls exact market tops or bottoms. Instead, the BuyLine keeps Howard out of down markets 85% of the time, and in for 85% of the good times.</p><p><blockquote>你不需要一个评级精确市场顶部或底部的系统。相反，买入线让霍华德在85%的时间里远离低迷的市场，在85%的好时光里远离。</blockquote></p><p> “If we can do that consistently, we have superior returns and a less stressful life,” he says. “Being all in during a bad tape is no fun.”</p><p><blockquote>“如果我们能够始终如一地做到这一点，我们就会获得更高的回报和更少的生活压力，”他说。“在一盘糟糕的磁带中全力以赴一点也不好玩。”</blockquote></p><p> His system is slow to get him out of the market, but quick to get him back in. Not even a 10% correction will necessarily move him out. He’s often buying those pullbacks. Getting back in fast makes sense, because recoveries off bottoms tend to happen fast.</p><p><blockquote>他的系统让他退出市场很慢，但让他回来很快。即使是10%的修正也不一定能让他出局。他经常买入那些回调。快速反弹是有意义的，因为从底部恢复往往会很快。</blockquote></p><p> “The HCM-BuyLine takes all the emotion out of the process,” says Howard.</p><p><blockquote>“HCM-BuyLine消除了整个过程中的所有情绪，”霍华德说。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #3: Don’t fight the tape</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第三课：不要和磁带作对</b></blockquote></p><p> This concept is one of the core pieces of wisdom from Marty Zweig’s classic book, “Winning on Wall Street.”</p><p><blockquote>这一概念是马蒂·茨威格经典著作《在华尔街获胜》中的核心智慧之一。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “You have to stay on the right side of market,” agrees Howard. “If you try to trade long in a bad market, it is painful.”</p><p><blockquote>“你必须站在市场的正确一边，”霍华德表示同意。“如果你试图在糟糕的市场中做多，那是很痛苦的。”</blockquote></p><p> In other words, don’t try to be a hero.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，不要试图成为英雄。</blockquote></p><p> “Sometimes, not losing money is where you want to be,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>“有时候，不赔钱才是你想要的，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Likewise, don’t turn cautious just because the market hits new highs — like now. You should love new highs, because it is a sign of market strength that may likely endure.</p><p><blockquote>同样，不要仅仅因为市场创下新高就变得谨慎——就像现在这样。你应该喜欢新高，因为这是市场力量的标志，可能会持续下去。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #4: Keep it simple</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第四课：保持简单</b></blockquote></p><p> As you’ll see below, Howard doesn’t use esoteric instruments such as derivatives, swaps or index options. He doesn’t even trade foreign stocks or currencies. This is refreshing for individual investors, because we have a harder time accessing those tools.</p><p><blockquote>正如您将在下面看到的，霍华德不使用衍生品、掉期或指数期权等深奥工具。他甚至不交易外国股票或货币。这对个人投资者来说令人耳目一新，因为我们更难获得这些工具。</blockquote></p><p> “You don’t have to trade crazy stuff,” he says. “You can trade plain-vanilla ETFs and beat everybody out there.”</p><p><blockquote>“你不必交易疯狂的东西，”他说。“你可以交易普通的ETF并击败所有人。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #5: How to trade the current market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第5课：如何交易当前市场</b></blockquote></p><p> First, be long.</p><p><blockquote>首先，做长。</blockquote></p><p> “The HCM-BuyLine is very positive. We are 100% in,” says Howard. “The market is broadening out. It is getting pretty exciting. We do not see it turn around any time soon. We are buying pullbacks.”</p><p><blockquote>“HCM-购买线非常积极。我们100%参与，”霍华德说。“市场正在扩大。它变得相当令人兴奋。我们认为它不会很快好转。我们正在买入回调。”</blockquote></p><p> One bullish signal is all the cash on the sidelines. “If there is any relief in Covid, we may see a big rally. We may end up with a great fall [season].”</p><p><blockquote>一个看涨信号是所有现金都在观望。“如果新冠疫情有所缓解，我们可能会看到大幅反弹。我们可能会以一个伟大的秋季[季节]结束。”</blockquote></p><p> Howard uses momentum indicators to select stocks and ETFs, too. For sectors he favors the following.</p><p><blockquote>霍华德也使用动量指标来选择股票和ETF。对于行业，他倾向于以下几点。</blockquote></p><p> He likes health care, tradable through the iShares US HealthcareIYH,-0.04%and ProShares Ultra Health CareRXL,+0.12%ETFs. He’s turning more bullish on biotech, which he plays via the iShares Biotechnology ETFIBB,-0.11%.</p><p><blockquote>他喜欢医疗保健，可通过iShares US HealthcareIYH(-0.04%)和ProShares Ultra Health CareRXL(+0.12%)ETF进行交易。他变得更加看好生物技术，他通过iShares Biotechnology ETFIBB进行投资，-0.11%。</blockquote></p><p> He likes consumer discretionary tradable through the iShares US Consumer ServicesIYC,-0.30%,and airlines via US Global JetsJETS,-1.17%.He also likes tech exposure via the Invesco QQQ TrustQQQ,+0.31%,iShares US TechnologyIYW,+0.50%and&nbsp;iShares SemiconductorSOXX,+0.75%.</p><p><blockquote>他喜欢通过iShares US Consumer ServicesIYC(-0.30%)进行交易的非必需消费品，以及通过US Global JetsJETS(-1.17%)进行交易的航空公司。他还喜欢通过Invesco QQQ TrustQQQ(+0.31%)、iShares US TechnologyIYW(+0.50%)进行科技投资和iShares半导体SOXX，+0.75%。</blockquote></p><p> He likes small-caps via the Vanguard Small-Cap Growth Index FundVBK,+0.07%.And convertible bonds via SPDR Bloomberg Barclays Convertible SecuritiesCWB,+0.64%and iShares Convertible BondICVT,+0.37%.</p><p><blockquote>他喜欢Vanguard Small-Cap Growth Index FundVBK，+0.07%的小盘股。以及SPDR Bloomberg Barclays可转换证券CWB，+0.64%和iShares可转换债券ICVT，+0.37%的可转换债券。</blockquote></p><p> As for individual names, he singles out MicrosoftMSFT,-0.00%and AppleAAPL,+0.42%in tech, as well as Amazon.comAMZN,+0.43%and TeslaTSLA,+0.16%.</p><p><blockquote>至于个人名称，他特别提到了科技股中的微软MSFT(-0.00%)和苹果AAPL(+0.42%)，以及亚马逊MAMZN(+0.43%)和特斯拉TSLA(+0.16%)。</blockquote></p><p> Also consider Howard’s two ETFs: The HCM Defender 100 IndexQQH,+0.62%and HCM Defender 500 IndexLGH,+1.32%.</p><p><blockquote>另请考虑Howard的两只ETF：HCM Defender 100 IndexQQH，+0.62%和HCM Defender 500 IndexLGH，+1.32%。</blockquote></p><p> He prefers to add to holdings on 1%-3% dips.</p><p><blockquote>他更喜欢在下跌1%-3%时增持。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A few drawbacks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>一些缺点</b></blockquote></p><p> His HCM Tactical Growth fund has a history of posting two-year stretches of underperformance of 1.5% to 8.8%, since it was launched in 2015. The fund then came roaring back to net the very positive five-year outperformance cited above. Investing in his system can require patience.</p><p><blockquote>他的HCM战术增长基金自2015年推出以来，曾连续两年表现不佳，涨幅为1.5%至8.8%。随后，该基金卷土重来，实现了上述非常积极的五年优异表现。投资他的系统需要耐心。</blockquote></p><p> Every manager, including Warren Buffett, can have a stretch of underperformance, says Howard.</p><p><blockquote>霍华德说，每个经理人，包括沃伦·巴菲特，都可能有一段时间表现不佳。</blockquote></p><p> “We are in the odds game,” he says. “Even in the odds game, you can have a bad hand or two thrown at you.”</p><p><blockquote>“我们正处于赔率游戏中，”他说。“即使在赔率游戏中，你也可能会遇到一两手糟糕的牌。”</blockquote></p><p> Another challenge is the high turnover, which is 140% a year for Tactical Growth. This means Uncle Sam takes a big cut in the good years. So if you buy Howard’s funds, you may want to do so in a tax-protected account.</p><p><blockquote>另一个挑战是高流动率，战术增长每年140%。这意味着山姆大叔在好年景中会得到很大的提成。因此，如果您购买霍华德的基金，您可能希望在避税账户中购买。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/beat-the-market-with-this-quant-system-thats-very-bullish-on-stocks-at-record-highs-11630761531?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/beat-the-market-with-this-quant-system-thats-very-bullish-on-stocks-at-record-highs-11630761531?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157895022","content_text":"Vance Howard’s HCM Tactical Growth Fund moves you in and out of the stock market when prudent to do so. So far his team of computer scientists’ strategy has paid off.\n\nImagine you had a money-making machine to harvest gains in the stock market while you sat back to enjoy life.\nThat’s everyone’s dream, right? Investor Vance Howard thinks he’s found it.\nHoward and his small army of computer programmers atHoward Capital Managementin Roswell, Ga., have a quantitative system that posts great returns.\nHis HCM Tactical Growth Fund HCMGX,+0.35%beats its Russell 1000 benchmark index and large-blend fund category by 8.5-10.4 percentage points annualized over the past five years, according to Morningstar. That is no small feat, and not only because it has to overcome a 2.22% fee. Beating the market is simply not easy. His HCM Dividend Sector PlusHCMQX,-0.05%) and HCM Income PlusHCMLX,+0.30%funds post similar outperformance.\nThere are drawbacks, which I detail below. (Among them: Potentially long stretches of underperformance and regular tax bills.) But first, what can we learn from this winner?\nSo-called quants never share all the details of their proprietary systems, but Howard shares a lot, as you’ll see. And this Texas rancher has a lot of good advice based on “horse sense” — not surprising, given his infectious passion for the markets, and his three decades of experience as a pro.\nHere are five lessons, 12 exchange traded funds (ETFs) and four stocks to consider, from a recent interview with him.\nLesson #1: Don’t be emotional\nIt’s no surprise so many people do poorly in the market. Evolution has programmed us to fail. For survival, we’ve learned to run from things that frightens us. And crave more of things that are pleasurable — like sweets or fats to store calories ahead of what might be a long stretch without food. But in the market, acting on the emotions of fear and greed invariably make us do the wrong thing at the wrong time. Sell at the bottom, buy at the top.\nLikewise, we’re programmed to believe being with the crowd brings safety. If you’re a zebra on the Savanna, you are more likely to get picked off by a predator if you go it alone. The problem here is being part of a crowd — and crowd psychology — dumb us down to a purely emotional level. This is why people in crowds do terrible things they would never do on their own. It doesn’t matter how smart you are. When you join a crowd, you lose a lot of IQ points. Base emotions take over.\nTo do well in the market, you have to counteract these tendencies. “One of the biggest mistakes individual investors and money managers make is getting emotional,” says Howard. “Let your emotions go.”\nLesson #2: Have a system and stick to it\nTo exorcise emotion, have a system. “And don’t second guess it,” says Howard. “This keeps you from letting the pandemic or Afghanistan scare you out of the market.” He calls his system the HCM-BuyLine. It is basically a momentum and trend-following system — which often works well in the markets.\nThe HCM-BuyLine basically works like this. First, rather than use the S&P 500SPX,-0.03%or the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.21%,Howard blends several stock indices to create his own index. Then he uses a moving average that tells him whether the market is in an uptrend or downtrend.\nWhen the moving average drops 3.5%, he sells 35%. If it drops 6.5%, he sells another 35%. He rarely goes to 100% cash.\n“If the BuyLine is positive, we will stay long no matter what,” he says. “We take all the emotion out of the equation by letting the math decide.”\nRight now, it’s bullish. (More on this below.)\nYour system also has to tell you when to get back in.\n“That’s where most people screw up,” he says. “They get out of the market, and they don’t know when to get back in.” The HCM-BuyLine gives a buy signal when his custom index trades above its moving average for six consecutive sessions, and then goes on to trade above the high hit during those six days.\nYou don’t need a system that calls exact market tops or bottoms. Instead, the BuyLine keeps Howard out of down markets 85% of the time, and in for 85% of the good times.\n“If we can do that consistently, we have superior returns and a less stressful life,” he says. “Being all in during a bad tape is no fun.”\nHis system is slow to get him out of the market, but quick to get him back in. Not even a 10% correction will necessarily move him out. He’s often buying those pullbacks. Getting back in fast makes sense, because recoveries off bottoms tend to happen fast.\n“The HCM-BuyLine takes all the emotion out of the process,” says Howard.\nLesson #3: Don’t fight the tape\nThis concept is one of the core pieces of wisdom from Marty Zweig’s classic book, “Winning on Wall Street.”\n“You have to stay on the right side of market,” agrees Howard. “If you try to trade long in a bad market, it is painful.”\nIn other words, don’t try to be a hero.\n“Sometimes, not losing money is where you want to be,” he says.\nLikewise, don’t turn cautious just because the market hits new highs — like now. You should love new highs, because it is a sign of market strength that may likely endure.\nLesson #4: Keep it simple\nAs you’ll see below, Howard doesn’t use esoteric instruments such as derivatives, swaps or index options. He doesn’t even trade foreign stocks or currencies. This is refreshing for individual investors, because we have a harder time accessing those tools.\n“You don’t have to trade crazy stuff,” he says. “You can trade plain-vanilla ETFs and beat everybody out there.”\nLesson #5: How to trade the current market\nFirst, be long.\n“The HCM-BuyLine is very positive. We are 100% in,” says Howard. “The market is broadening out. It is getting pretty exciting. We do not see it turn around any time soon. We are buying pullbacks.”\nOne bullish signal is all the cash on the sidelines. “If there is any relief in Covid, we may see a big rally. We may end up with a great fall [season].”\nHoward uses momentum indicators to select stocks and ETFs, too. For sectors he favors the following.\nHe likes health care, tradable through the iShares US HealthcareIYH,-0.04%and ProShares Ultra Health CareRXL,+0.12%ETFs. He’s turning more bullish on biotech, which he plays via the iShares Biotechnology ETFIBB,-0.11%.\nHe likes consumer discretionary tradable through the iShares US Consumer ServicesIYC,-0.30%,and airlines via US Global JetsJETS,-1.17%.He also likes tech exposure via the Invesco QQQ TrustQQQ,+0.31%,iShares US TechnologyIYW,+0.50%and iShares SemiconductorSOXX,+0.75%.\nHe likes small-caps via the Vanguard Small-Cap Growth Index FundVBK,+0.07%.And convertible bonds via SPDR Bloomberg Barclays Convertible SecuritiesCWB,+0.64%and iShares Convertible BondICVT,+0.37%.\nAs for individual names, he singles out MicrosoftMSFT,-0.00%and AppleAAPL,+0.42%in tech, as well as Amazon.comAMZN,+0.43%and TeslaTSLA,+0.16%.\nAlso consider Howard’s two ETFs: The HCM Defender 100 IndexQQH,+0.62%and HCM Defender 500 IndexLGH,+1.32%.\nHe prefers to add to holdings on 1%-3% dips.\nA few drawbacks\nHis HCM Tactical Growth fund has a history of posting two-year stretches of underperformance of 1.5% to 8.8%, since it was launched in 2015. The fund then came roaring back to net the very positive five-year outperformance cited above. Investing in his system can require patience.\nEvery manager, including Warren Buffett, can have a stretch of underperformance, says Howard.\n“We are in the odds game,” he says. “Even in the odds game, you can have a bad hand or two thrown at you.”\nAnother challenge is the high turnover, which is 140% a year for Tactical Growth. This means Uncle Sam takes a big cut in the good years. So if you buy Howard’s funds, you may want to do so in a tax-protected account.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":489,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":887025437,"gmtCreate":1631947191629,"gmtModify":1632805132018,"author":{"id":"3582016577975526","authorId":"3582016577975526","name":"ivanlam","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b69aadeaeb7dadd4cee48a1d48771644","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582016577975526","authorIdStr":"3582016577975526"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":16,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/887025437","repostId":"1171558890","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1171558890","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631921912,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1171558890?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-18 07:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"US IPO Week Ahead: Software, consumer products, and payment tech lead a diverse 14 IPO week<blockquote>美国IPO周：软件、消费品和支付技术引领多元化14周IPO周</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1171558890","media":"renaissancecap...","summary":"Summer may be over, but the IPO market is just heating up as 14 IPOs are slated to raise $5.3 billio","content":"<p>Summer may be over, but the IPO market is just heating up as 14 IPOs are slated to raise $5.3 billion in the week ahead. The diverse group includes software, consumer products, payment technology, and more.</p><p><blockquote>夏季可能已经结束，但IPO市场刚刚升温，未来一周将有14起IPO筹集53亿美元。多元化的群体包括软件、消费品、支付技术等等。</blockquote></p><p> The largest deal of the week,<b>Freshworks</b>(FRSH) plans to raise $855 million at a $9.6 billion market cap. The company’s core product is its customer support software, and it also offers IT service management software and a nascent competitor to CRM solutions. While losses are expected to increase with S&amp;M spending, Freshworks has delivered solid growth and 100%+ net dollar-based revenue retention as of 6/30/21.</p><p><blockquote>本周最大的交易，<b>Freshworks</b>(FRSH)计划以96亿美元的市值筹集8.55亿美元。该公司的核心产品是其客户支持软件，它还提供IT服务管理软件和CRM解决方案的新兴竞争对手。虽然亏损预计会随着S&amp;M支出的增加而增加，但截至2011年6月30日，Freshworks实现了稳健的增长和100%以上的净美元收入保留率。</blockquote></p><p> Canadian consumer products company&nbsp;<b>Knowlton Development</b>(KDC) plans to raise $800 million at a $3.1 billion market cap. Over the past three years, Knowlton has been responsible for co-developing 9,000+ products across a variety of categories, and its products are sold by its brand partners in 70+ countries. Despite using offering proceeds to pay down debt, Knowlton will be leveraged post-IPO.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大消费品公司<b>诺尔顿发展</b>(KDC)计划以31亿美元的市值筹集8亿美元。在过去的三年里，Knowlton负责共同开发了9,000多种产品，其产品由70多个国家的品牌合作伙伴销售。尽管诺尔顿将使用发行收益来偿还债务，但IPO后仍将发挥杠杆作用。</blockquote></p><p> Restaurant payment processor&nbsp;<b>Toast</b>(TOST) plans to raise $685 million at a $17.9 billion market cap. Toast provides a suite of integrated payment and software solutions that are designed to streamline restaurant operations. The company grew ARR over 100% in the 1H21, though it has historically been unprofitable, and growth could slow as tailwinds from restaurants reopening abate.</p><p><blockquote>餐厅支付处理器<b>吐司</b>(TOST)计划以179亿美元的市值筹集6.85亿美元。Toast提供一套集成支付和软件解决方案，旨在简化餐厅运营。该公司在2021年上半年的ARR增长率超过100%，尽管它历来没有盈利，而且随着餐厅重新开业的推动力减弱，增长可能会放缓。</blockquote></p><p> Global money transfer firm&nbsp;<b>Remitly Global</b>(RELY) plans to raise $487 million at a $7.5 billion market cap. Remitly provides digital financial services for immigrants and their families in over 135 countries, and it has expanded its core cross-border remittance product to over 1,700 corridors worldwide. The company has demonstrated growth and margin improvement, though it remains unprofitable.</p><p><blockquote>全球汇款公司<b>全球汇款</b>(RELY)计划以75亿美元的市值筹集4.87亿美元。Remitly为超过135个国家的移民及其家人提供数字金融服务，并已将其核心跨境汇款产品扩展到全球1,700多个走廊。该公司已实现增长和利润率提高，但仍未盈利。</blockquote></p><p> Software firm&nbsp;<b>Clearwater Analytics</b>(CWAN) plans to raise $450 million at a $3.7 billion market cap. Clearwater provides its 1,000+ clients with cloud-native software that allows them to simplify their investment accounting operations, and the company has a 100% recurring revenue model. A new investor and certain existing shareholders intend to purchase $150 million worth of shares in the IPO.</p><p><blockquote>软件公司<b>清水分析</b>(CWAN)计划以37亿美元的市值筹集4.5亿美元。Clearwater为其1,000多家客户提供云原生软件，使他们能够简化投资会计操作，并且该公司拥有100%的经常性收入模式。一位新投资者和某些现有股东打算在IPO中购买价值1.5亿美元的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Food company&nbsp;<b>Sovos Brands</b>(SOVO) plans to raise $350 million at a $1.5 billion market cap. Formed by Advent International, Sovos Brands offers a select group of acquired premium food brands. According to the company, its largest brand of products, Rao's, included the #1 selling SKU in the pasta and pizza sauce category. Profitable with solid growth, Sovos will be leveraged post-IPO.</p><p><blockquote>食品公司<b>索沃斯品牌</b>(SOVO)计划以15亿美元的市值筹集3.5亿美元。Sovos Brands由Advent International组建，提供一组精选的收购优质食品品牌。据该公司称，其最大的产品品牌Rao’s是意大利面和披萨酱类别中销量第一的SKU。Sovos盈利稳健增长，IPO后将发挥杠杆作用。</blockquote></p><p> Customer engagement software provider&nbsp;<b>EngageSmart</b>(ESMT) plans to raise $349 million at a $4.1 billion market cap. The company provides software that simplifies online workflows like paperless billing, electronic payment processing, scheduling, and client communication. While growth may slow post-pandemic, EngageSmart has a sticky customer based and a long track record of profitability.</p><p><blockquote>客户参与软件提供商<b>参与智能</b>(ESMT)计划以41亿美元的市值筹集3.49亿美元。该公司提供简化在线工作流程的软件，如无纸化计费、电子支付处理、日程安排和客户沟通。虽然大流行后增长可能会放缓，但EngageSmart拥有粘性客户群和长期的盈利记录。</blockquote></p><p> Hiring solutions provider&nbsp;<b>Sterling Check</b>(STER) plans to raise $300 million at a $2.1 billion market cap. Sterling is one of the leading US providers of background checks for corporate and government customers. The company serves more than 50% of the Fortune 100, often with exclusive contracts, though it operates in a highly competitive market.</p><p><blockquote>招聘解决方案提供商<b>英镑支票</b>(STER)计划以21亿美元的市值筹集3亿美元。Sterling是美国领先的企业和政府客户背景调查提供商之一。尽管该公司在竞争激烈的市场中运营，但该公司为超过50%的财富100强企业提供服务，通常签订独家合同。</blockquote></p><p> Jewelry retailer&nbsp;<b>Brilliant Earth Group</b>(BRLT) plans to raise $250 million at a $1.4 billion. Brilliant Earth is a digital-first jewelry company and a global leader in ethically sourced fine jewelry. The company has sold to consumers in all US states and over 50 countries, and has served over 370,000 customers through its e-commerce platform and 13 showrooms.</p><p><blockquote>珠宝零售商<b>辉煌地球集团</b>(BRLT)计划以14亿澳元筹集2.5亿美元。Brilliant Earth是一家数字优先的珠宝公司，也是道德采购高级珠宝的全球领导者。该公司已向美国所有州和50多个国家的消费者销售产品，并通过其电子商务平台和13个展厅为超过370,000名客户提供服务。</blockquote></p><p> Online fashion platform&nbsp;<b>a.k.a. Brands</b>(AKA) plans to raise $250 million at a $2.3 billion market cap. a.k.a. acquires digitally-focused fashion brands oriented toward millennial and Gen Z consumers, starting with its acquisition of Princess Polly in 2018. The company has successfully expanded Princess Polly and has a long runway to grow its brands in the US, but its M&amp;A strategy carries execution risk.</p><p><blockquote>线上时尚平台<b>又名品牌</b>(AKA)计划以23亿美元的市值筹集2.5亿美元。a.k.a.从2018年收购Princess Polly开始，收购面向千禧一代和Z世代消费者的数字化时尚品牌。该公司已经成功扩张了波利公主，并且在美国发展品牌还有很长的路要走，但其并购战略存在执行风险。</blockquote></p><p> COVID-19 test maker&nbsp;<b>Cue Health</b>(HLTH) plans to raise $200 million at a $2.4 billion market cap. Cue’s first commercially available diagnostic test for use with its Cue Health Monitoring System is its COVID-19 Test Kit, which has been authorized by two EUAs. Cue has five additional Test Kits in late-stage technical development, for which it expects to begin seeking FDA authorization or clearance in the 2H22.</p><p><blockquote>COVID-19测试制造商<b>提示健康</b>(HLTH)计划以24亿美元的市值筹集2亿美元。Cue首个用于其Cue健康监测系统的商用诊断测试是其COVID-19检测试剂盒，该试剂盒已获得两个EUA的授权。Cue还有另外五个测试套件处于后期技术开发阶段，预计将于2022年下半年开始寻求FDA授权或批准。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> London-listed crypto mining company&nbsp;<b>Argo Blockchain</b>(ARBK) plans to raise $138 million at an $855 million market cap. Argo states that it is a leading blockchain technology company focused on large-scale mining of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Argo has a fleet of more than 21,000 purpose-built computers (mining machines) and can generate more than 1,075 petahash per second.</p><p><blockquote>伦敦上市的加密货币挖矿公司<b>Argo区块链</b>(ARBK)计划以8.55亿美元的市值筹集1.38亿美元。Argo表示，它是一家领先的区块链技术公司，专注于比特币和其他加密货币的大规模挖掘。Argo拥有超过21,000台专用计算机（矿机），每秒可生成超过1,075 petahash。</blockquote></p><p> Personalized supplements seller&nbsp;<b>Thorne Healthtech</b>(THRN) plans to raise $126 million at an $892 million market cap. The company’s vertically integrated brands, Thorne and Onegevity, provide actionable insights and personalized data, products, and services. Profitable with strong growth, Thorne has a base of more than 3 million customers.</p><p><blockquote>个性化补充剂卖家<b>索恩健康科技</b>(THRN)计划以8.92亿美元的市值筹集1.26亿美元。该公司的垂直整合品牌Thorne和Onegevity提供可操作的见解和个性化数据、产品和服务。Thorne盈利强劲增长，拥有超过300万客户群。</blockquote></p><p> Canadian bank&nbsp;<b>VersaBank</b>(VBNK) plans to raise $50 million at a $269 million market cap. VersaBank is a Canadian Schedule I chartered bank and states that it is one of the world's first fully digital financial institutions. As of July 31, 2021, VersaBank had $1.8 billion in assets, $1.6 billion in loans, $1.5 billion in deposits, and $202 million in stockholders' equity.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大银行<b>VersaBank</b>(VBNK)计划以2.69亿美元的市值筹集5000万美元。VersaBank是加拿大附表一特许银行，并表示它是世界上首批完全数字化的金融机构之一。截至2021年7月31日，VersaBank拥有18亿美元资产、16亿美元贷款、15亿美元存款和2.02亿美元股东权益。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1619493174116","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US IPO Week Ahead: Software, consumer products, and payment tech lead a diverse 14 IPO week<blockquote>美国IPO周：软件、消费品和支付技术引领多元化14周IPO周</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS IPO Week Ahead: Software, consumer products, and payment tech lead a diverse 14 IPO week<blockquote>美国IPO周：软件、消费品和支付技术引领多元化14周IPO周</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">renaissancecap...</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-18 07:38</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Summer may be over, but the IPO market is just heating up as 14 IPOs are slated to raise $5.3 billion in the week ahead. The diverse group includes software, consumer products, payment technology, and more.</p><p><blockquote>夏季可能已经结束，但IPO市场刚刚升温，未来一周将有14起IPO筹集53亿美元。多元化的群体包括软件、消费品、支付技术等等。</blockquote></p><p> The largest deal of the week,<b>Freshworks</b>(FRSH) plans to raise $855 million at a $9.6 billion market cap. The company’s core product is its customer support software, and it also offers IT service management software and a nascent competitor to CRM solutions. While losses are expected to increase with S&amp;M spending, Freshworks has delivered solid growth and 100%+ net dollar-based revenue retention as of 6/30/21.</p><p><blockquote>本周最大的交易，<b>Freshworks</b>(FRSH)计划以96亿美元的市值筹集8.55亿美元。该公司的核心产品是其客户支持软件，它还提供IT服务管理软件和CRM解决方案的新兴竞争对手。虽然亏损预计会随着S&amp;M支出的增加而增加，但截至2011年6月30日，Freshworks实现了稳健的增长和100%以上的净美元收入保留率。</blockquote></p><p> Canadian consumer products company&nbsp;<b>Knowlton Development</b>(KDC) plans to raise $800 million at a $3.1 billion market cap. Over the past three years, Knowlton has been responsible for co-developing 9,000+ products across a variety of categories, and its products are sold by its brand partners in 70+ countries. Despite using offering proceeds to pay down debt, Knowlton will be leveraged post-IPO.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大消费品公司<b>诺尔顿发展</b>(KDC)计划以31亿美元的市值筹集8亿美元。在过去的三年里，Knowlton负责共同开发了9,000多种产品，其产品由70多个国家的品牌合作伙伴销售。尽管诺尔顿将使用发行收益来偿还债务，但IPO后仍将发挥杠杆作用。</blockquote></p><p> Restaurant payment processor&nbsp;<b>Toast</b>(TOST) plans to raise $685 million at a $17.9 billion market cap. Toast provides a suite of integrated payment and software solutions that are designed to streamline restaurant operations. The company grew ARR over 100% in the 1H21, though it has historically been unprofitable, and growth could slow as tailwinds from restaurants reopening abate.</p><p><blockquote>餐厅支付处理器<b>吐司</b>(TOST)计划以179亿美元的市值筹集6.85亿美元。Toast提供一套集成支付和软件解决方案，旨在简化餐厅运营。该公司在2021年上半年的ARR增长率超过100%，尽管它历来没有盈利，而且随着餐厅重新开业的推动力减弱，增长可能会放缓。</blockquote></p><p> Global money transfer firm&nbsp;<b>Remitly Global</b>(RELY) plans to raise $487 million at a $7.5 billion market cap. Remitly provides digital financial services for immigrants and their families in over 135 countries, and it has expanded its core cross-border remittance product to over 1,700 corridors worldwide. The company has demonstrated growth and margin improvement, though it remains unprofitable.</p><p><blockquote>全球汇款公司<b>全球汇款</b>(RELY)计划以75亿美元的市值筹集4.87亿美元。Remitly为超过135个国家的移民及其家人提供数字金融服务，并已将其核心跨境汇款产品扩展到全球1,700多个走廊。该公司已实现增长和利润率提高，但仍未盈利。</blockquote></p><p> Software firm&nbsp;<b>Clearwater Analytics</b>(CWAN) plans to raise $450 million at a $3.7 billion market cap. Clearwater provides its 1,000+ clients with cloud-native software that allows them to simplify their investment accounting operations, and the company has a 100% recurring revenue model. A new investor and certain existing shareholders intend to purchase $150 million worth of shares in the IPO.</p><p><blockquote>软件公司<b>清水分析</b>(CWAN)计划以37亿美元的市值筹集4.5亿美元。Clearwater为其1,000多家客户提供云原生软件，使他们能够简化投资会计操作，并且该公司拥有100%的经常性收入模式。一位新投资者和某些现有股东打算在IPO中购买价值1.5亿美元的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Food company&nbsp;<b>Sovos Brands</b>(SOVO) plans to raise $350 million at a $1.5 billion market cap. Formed by Advent International, Sovos Brands offers a select group of acquired premium food brands. According to the company, its largest brand of products, Rao's, included the #1 selling SKU in the pasta and pizza sauce category. Profitable with solid growth, Sovos will be leveraged post-IPO.</p><p><blockquote>食品公司<b>索沃斯品牌</b>(SOVO)计划以15亿美元的市值筹集3.5亿美元。Sovos Brands由Advent International组建，提供一组精选的收购优质食品品牌。据该公司称，其最大的产品品牌Rao’s是意大利面和披萨酱类别中销量第一的SKU。Sovos盈利稳健增长，IPO后将发挥杠杆作用。</blockquote></p><p> Customer engagement software provider&nbsp;<b>EngageSmart</b>(ESMT) plans to raise $349 million at a $4.1 billion market cap. The company provides software that simplifies online workflows like paperless billing, electronic payment processing, scheduling, and client communication. While growth may slow post-pandemic, EngageSmart has a sticky customer based and a long track record of profitability.</p><p><blockquote>客户参与软件提供商<b>参与智能</b>(ESMT)计划以41亿美元的市值筹集3.49亿美元。该公司提供简化在线工作流程的软件，如无纸化计费、电子支付处理、日程安排和客户沟通。虽然大流行后增长可能会放缓，但EngageSmart拥有粘性客户群和长期的盈利记录。</blockquote></p><p> Hiring solutions provider&nbsp;<b>Sterling Check</b>(STER) plans to raise $300 million at a $2.1 billion market cap. Sterling is one of the leading US providers of background checks for corporate and government customers. The company serves more than 50% of the Fortune 100, often with exclusive contracts, though it operates in a highly competitive market.</p><p><blockquote>招聘解决方案提供商<b>英镑支票</b>(STER)计划以21亿美元的市值筹集3亿美元。Sterling是美国领先的企业和政府客户背景调查提供商之一。尽管该公司在竞争激烈的市场中运营，但该公司为超过50%的财富100强企业提供服务，通常签订独家合同。</blockquote></p><p> Jewelry retailer&nbsp;<b>Brilliant Earth Group</b>(BRLT) plans to raise $250 million at a $1.4 billion. Brilliant Earth is a digital-first jewelry company and a global leader in ethically sourced fine jewelry. The company has sold to consumers in all US states and over 50 countries, and has served over 370,000 customers through its e-commerce platform and 13 showrooms.</p><p><blockquote>珠宝零售商<b>辉煌地球集团</b>(BRLT)计划以14亿澳元筹集2.5亿美元。Brilliant Earth是一家数字优先的珠宝公司，也是道德采购高级珠宝的全球领导者。该公司已向美国所有州和50多个国家的消费者销售产品，并通过其电子商务平台和13个展厅为超过370,000名客户提供服务。</blockquote></p><p> Online fashion platform&nbsp;<b>a.k.a. Brands</b>(AKA) plans to raise $250 million at a $2.3 billion market cap. a.k.a. acquires digitally-focused fashion brands oriented toward millennial and Gen Z consumers, starting with its acquisition of Princess Polly in 2018. The company has successfully expanded Princess Polly and has a long runway to grow its brands in the US, but its M&amp;A strategy carries execution risk.</p><p><blockquote>线上时尚平台<b>又名品牌</b>(AKA)计划以23亿美元的市值筹集2.5亿美元。a.k.a.从2018年收购Princess Polly开始，收购面向千禧一代和Z世代消费者的数字化时尚品牌。该公司已经成功扩张了波利公主，并且在美国发展品牌还有很长的路要走，但其并购战略存在执行风险。</blockquote></p><p> COVID-19 test maker&nbsp;<b>Cue Health</b>(HLTH) plans to raise $200 million at a $2.4 billion market cap. Cue’s first commercially available diagnostic test for use with its Cue Health Monitoring System is its COVID-19 Test Kit, which has been authorized by two EUAs. Cue has five additional Test Kits in late-stage technical development, for which it expects to begin seeking FDA authorization or clearance in the 2H22.</p><p><blockquote>COVID-19测试制造商<b>提示健康</b>(HLTH)计划以24亿美元的市值筹集2亿美元。Cue首个用于其Cue健康监测系统的商用诊断测试是其COVID-19检测试剂盒，该试剂盒已获得两个EUA的授权。Cue还有另外五个测试套件处于后期技术开发阶段，预计将于2022年下半年开始寻求FDA授权或批准。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> London-listed crypto mining company&nbsp;<b>Argo Blockchain</b>(ARBK) plans to raise $138 million at an $855 million market cap. Argo states that it is a leading blockchain technology company focused on large-scale mining of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Argo has a fleet of more than 21,000 purpose-built computers (mining machines) and can generate more than 1,075 petahash per second.</p><p><blockquote>伦敦上市的加密货币挖矿公司<b>Argo区块链</b>(ARBK)计划以8.55亿美元的市值筹集1.38亿美元。Argo表示，它是一家领先的区块链技术公司，专注于比特币和其他加密货币的大规模挖掘。Argo拥有超过21,000台专用计算机（矿机），每秒可生成超过1,075 petahash。</blockquote></p><p> Personalized supplements seller&nbsp;<b>Thorne Healthtech</b>(THRN) plans to raise $126 million at an $892 million market cap. The company’s vertically integrated brands, Thorne and Onegevity, provide actionable insights and personalized data, products, and services. Profitable with strong growth, Thorne has a base of more than 3 million customers.</p><p><blockquote>个性化补充剂卖家<b>索恩健康科技</b>(THRN)计划以8.92亿美元的市值筹集1.26亿美元。该公司的垂直整合品牌Thorne和Onegevity提供可操作的见解和个性化数据、产品和服务。Thorne盈利强劲增长，拥有超过300万客户群。</blockquote></p><p> Canadian bank&nbsp;<b>VersaBank</b>(VBNK) plans to raise $50 million at a $269 million market cap. VersaBank is a Canadian Schedule I chartered bank and states that it is one of the world's first fully digital financial institutions. As of July 31, 2021, VersaBank had $1.8 billion in assets, $1.6 billion in loans, $1.5 billion in deposits, and $202 million in stockholders' equity.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大银行<b>VersaBank</b>(VBNK)计划以2.69亿美元的市值筹集5000万美元。VersaBank是加拿大附表一特许银行，并表示它是世界上首批完全数字化的金融机构之一。截至2021年7月31日，VersaBank拥有18亿美元资产、16亿美元贷款、15亿美元存款和2.02亿美元股东权益。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.renaissancecapital.com/IPO-Center/News/86272/US-IPO-Week-Ahead-Software-consumer-products-and-payment-tech-lead-a-divers\">renaissancecap...</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ESMT":"EngageSmart Inc.","STER":"Sterling Check Corp.","FRSH":"Freshworks","THRN":"Thorne Healthtech","HLTH":"Cue Health Inc.","CWAN":"Clearwater Analytics Holdings, Inc.","TOST":"Toast, Inc.","BRLT":"Brilliant Earth Group, Inc.","AKA":"a.k.a. Brands Holding Corp.","ARBK":"Argo Blockchain Plc","SOVO":"Sovos Brands, Inc.","RELY":"Remitly Global, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.renaissancecapital.com/IPO-Center/News/86272/US-IPO-Week-Ahead-Software-consumer-products-and-payment-tech-lead-a-divers","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1171558890","content_text":"Summer may be over, but the IPO market is just heating up as 14 IPOs are slated to raise $5.3 billion in the week ahead. The diverse group includes software, consumer products, payment technology, and more.\nThe largest deal of the week,Freshworks(FRSH) plans to raise $855 million at a $9.6 billion market cap. The company’s core product is its customer support software, and it also offers IT service management software and a nascent competitor to CRM solutions. While losses are expected to increase with S&M spending, Freshworks has delivered solid growth and 100%+ net dollar-based revenue retention as of 6/30/21.\nCanadian consumer products company Knowlton Development(KDC) plans to raise $800 million at a $3.1 billion market cap. Over the past three years, Knowlton has been responsible for co-developing 9,000+ products across a variety of categories, and its products are sold by its brand partners in 70+ countries. Despite using offering proceeds to pay down debt, Knowlton will be leveraged post-IPO.\nRestaurant payment processor Toast(TOST) plans to raise $685 million at a $17.9 billion market cap. Toast provides a suite of integrated payment and software solutions that are designed to streamline restaurant operations. The company grew ARR over 100% in the 1H21, though it has historically been unprofitable, and growth could slow as tailwinds from restaurants reopening abate.\nGlobal money transfer firm Remitly Global(RELY) plans to raise $487 million at a $7.5 billion market cap. Remitly provides digital financial services for immigrants and their families in over 135 countries, and it has expanded its core cross-border remittance product to over 1,700 corridors worldwide. The company has demonstrated growth and margin improvement, though it remains unprofitable.\nSoftware firm Clearwater Analytics(CWAN) plans to raise $450 million at a $3.7 billion market cap. Clearwater provides its 1,000+ clients with cloud-native software that allows them to simplify their investment accounting operations, and the company has a 100% recurring revenue model. A new investor and certain existing shareholders intend to purchase $150 million worth of shares in the IPO.\nFood company Sovos Brands(SOVO) plans to raise $350 million at a $1.5 billion market cap. Formed by Advent International, Sovos Brands offers a select group of acquired premium food brands. According to the company, its largest brand of products, Rao's, included the #1 selling SKU in the pasta and pizza sauce category. Profitable with solid growth, Sovos will be leveraged post-IPO.\nCustomer engagement software provider EngageSmart(ESMT) plans to raise $349 million at a $4.1 billion market cap. The company provides software that simplifies online workflows like paperless billing, electronic payment processing, scheduling, and client communication. While growth may slow post-pandemic, EngageSmart has a sticky customer based and a long track record of profitability.\nHiring solutions provider Sterling Check(STER) plans to raise $300 million at a $2.1 billion market cap. Sterling is one of the leading US providers of background checks for corporate and government customers. The company serves more than 50% of the Fortune 100, often with exclusive contracts, though it operates in a highly competitive market.\nJewelry retailer Brilliant Earth Group(BRLT) plans to raise $250 million at a $1.4 billion. Brilliant Earth is a digital-first jewelry company and a global leader in ethically sourced fine jewelry. The company has sold to consumers in all US states and over 50 countries, and has served over 370,000 customers through its e-commerce platform and 13 showrooms.\nOnline fashion platform a.k.a. Brands(AKA) plans to raise $250 million at a $2.3 billion market cap. a.k.a. acquires digitally-focused fashion brands oriented toward millennial and Gen Z consumers, starting with its acquisition of Princess Polly in 2018. The company has successfully expanded Princess Polly and has a long runway to grow its brands in the US, but its M&A strategy carries execution risk.\nCOVID-19 test maker Cue Health(HLTH) plans to raise $200 million at a $2.4 billion market cap. Cue’s first commercially available diagnostic test for use with its Cue Health Monitoring System is its COVID-19 Test Kit, which has been authorized by two EUAs. Cue has five additional Test Kits in late-stage technical development, for which it expects to begin seeking FDA authorization or clearance in the 2H22.\nLondon-listed crypto mining company Argo Blockchain(ARBK) plans to raise $138 million at an $855 million market cap. Argo states that it is a leading blockchain technology company focused on large-scale mining of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Argo has a fleet of more than 21,000 purpose-built computers (mining machines) and can generate more than 1,075 petahash per second.\nPersonalized supplements seller Thorne Healthtech(THRN) plans to raise $126 million at an $892 million market cap. The company’s vertically integrated brands, Thorne and Onegevity, provide actionable insights and personalized data, products, and services. Profitable with strong growth, Thorne has a base of more than 3 million customers.\nCanadian bank VersaBank(VBNK) plans to raise $50 million at a $269 million market cap. VersaBank is a Canadian Schedule I chartered bank and states that it is one of the world's first fully digital financial institutions. As of July 31, 2021, VersaBank had $1.8 billion in assets, $1.6 billion in loans, $1.5 billion in deposits, and $202 million in stockholders' equity.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"THRN":0.9,"KDC":0.9,"TOST":0.9,"ARBK":0.9,"STER":0.9,"SOVO":0.9,"FRSH":0.9,"HLTH":0.9,"BRLT":0.9,"AKA":0.9,"RELY":0.9,"CWAN":0.9,"ESMT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":627,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":829666746,"gmtCreate":1633500589610,"gmtModify":1633500768171,"author":{"id":"3582016577975526","authorId":"3582016577975526","name":"ivanlam","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b69aadeaeb7dadd4cee48a1d48771644","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582016577975526","authorIdStr":"3582016577975526"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[流泪]&nbsp;","listText":"[流泪]&nbsp;","text":"[流泪]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":15,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/829666746","repostId":"1103782575","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1103782575","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633486462,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1103782575?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-06 10:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Don't worry (too much) about an October market crash<blockquote>不要（过于）担心十月市场崩盘</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1103782575","media":"CNN Business","summary":"New York (CNN Business) - October has often been a spooky month on Wall Street. Stocks famously cras","content":"<p><b>New York (CNN Business)&nbsp;-&nbsp;</b>October has often been a spooky month on Wall Street. Stocks famously crashed in October 1929, 1987 and, most recently, 2008.</p><p><blockquote><b>纽约（CNN商业）——</b>十月在华尔街通常是一个阴森的月份。股市在1929年10月、1987年以及最近的2008年暴跌。</blockquote></p><p> But&nbsp;the marketisn't always a terrifying place to be just before Halloween. In fact,stocks typically go up&nbsp;in October.</p><p><blockquote>但万圣节前夕，市场并不总是一个可怕的地方。事实上，股市通常会在十月份上涨。</blockquote></p><p> According to data from Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at LPL Financial, October is just about in the middle of the pack: It has been the 7th best month for the S&amp;P 500 since 1950 and the 4th best over the past 10 and 20 years.</p><p><blockquote>根据LPL Financial首席市场策略师Ryan Detrick的数据，10月份几乎处于中间位置：它是标普500自1950年以来第7个最佳月份，也是过去10年和20年中第4个最佳月份。</blockquote></p><p> \"October is known for some spectacular crashes and many expect bad things to happen again this year,\" Detrick said in a report last week. \"But the truth is this month is simply misunderstood, as historically it is about an average month.\"</p><p><blockquote>德特里克在上周的一份报告中表示：“十月份因一些壮观的车祸而闻名，许多人预计今年会再次发生糟糕的事情。”“但事实是这个月只是被误解了，因为从历史上看，它大约是一个普通的月份。”</blockquote></p><p> And it could be better than average this October, because there are no potentially game-changing election results coming in November.</p><p><blockquote>今年10月的情况可能会好于平均水平，因为11月没有可能改变游戏规则的选举结果。</blockquote></p><p> Since 1999, the S&amp;P 500 has gained 3.6% in odd-year Octobers and fallen 1.1% in even-numbered ones, corresponding to the US election schedule.</p><p><blockquote>自1999年以来，标普500在奇数年10月上涨3.6%，在偶数年10月下跌1.1%，与美国大选时间表相对应。</blockquote></p><p> \"It turns out stocks don't like politics much,\" Detrick said.</p><p><blockquote>“事实证明，股票不太喜欢政治，”德特里克说。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Many risks remain but outlook still promising for stocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>许多风险依然存在，但股市前景仍然乐观</b></blockquote></p><p> Of course DC headlines could still roil the market this year, albeit not because of an election.</p><p><blockquote>当然，今年DC的头条新闻仍可能扰乱市场，尽管不是因为选举。</blockquote></p><p> The debt ceiling debate has yet to be resolved, and Congress still hasn't passed President Joe Biden's infrastructure and social spending plans. Meanwhile Biden also must soon decide whether he wants to nominate Jerome Powell for a second term as Fed chairman or pick someone else.</p><p><blockquote>债务上限争论尚未解决，国会仍未通过总统乔·拜登的基础设施和社会支出计划。与此同时，拜登还必须很快决定是提名杰罗姆·鲍威尔连任美联储主席，还是选择其他人。</blockquote></p><p> \"The fourth quarter — like the conclusion of sporting events or Broadway plays — is where the drama lies,\" Louis Navellier, chairman of Navellier &amp; Associates, said in a report last week.</p><p><blockquote>Navellier&amp;Associates董事长路易斯·纳维利尔(Louis Navellier)在上周的一份报告中表示：“第四季度——就像体育赛事或百老汇戏剧的结局一样——是戏剧所在。”</blockquote></p><p> That said, Navellier is hopeful the usual seasonal tailwinds for the markets and the broader economy will lift stocks this year.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，纳维利尔希望市场和整体经济通常的季节性顺风能够提振今年的股市。</blockquote></p><p> Stocks tend to enjoy not just solid gains in October, but also for the remainder of the fourth quarter. Consumer spending surges during the holiday shopping season and businesses often look to boost investments before annual budgets run out.</p><p><blockquote>股市往往不仅在10月份强劲上涨，而且在第四季度剩余时间也是如此。消费者支出在假日购物季激增，企业通常希望在年度预算用完之前增加投资。</blockquote></p><p> With that in mind, some strategists think that investors will continue to focus on the positive when looking ahead to earnings for Q4 and 2022.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到这一点，一些策略师认为，在展望第四季度和2022年的收益时，投资者将继续关注积极的一面。</blockquote></p><p> Yes, worries remain about Covid-19, Fed policy, inflation, global shipping delays and numerous other economic warning signs.</p><p><blockquote>是的，对新冠肺炎、美联储政策、通货膨胀、全球航运延误和许多其他经济警告信号的担忧仍然存在。</blockquote></p><p> But although this could create more volatility than usual in October and the rest of the fourth quarter, few expect that these challenges will lead to another recession. So the path of least resistance for stocks is still upward.</p><p><blockquote>不过，尽管这可能会在10月份和第四季度剩余时间造成比往常更大的波动，但很少有人预计这些挑战会导致另一场衰退。所以股票阻力最小的路径仍然是向上。</blockquote></p><p> \"Virtually all of these problems are showing tangible signs toward resolution,\" Robert Teeter, managing director at Silvercrest Asset Management, said in a report Monday, \"and should not inflict any long-term damage to stock valuations.\"</p><p><blockquote>Silvercrest Asset Management董事总经理罗伯特·蒂特(Robert Teeter)在周一的一份报告中表示：“几乎所有这些问题都显示出解决的切实迹象，并且不会对股票估值造成任何长期损害。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Don't worry (too much) about an October market crash<blockquote>不要（过于）担心十月市场崩盘</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDon't worry (too much) about an October market crash<blockquote>不要（过于）担心十月市场崩盘</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">CNN Business</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-06 10:14</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>New York (CNN Business)&nbsp;-&nbsp;</b>October has often been a spooky month on Wall Street. Stocks famously crashed in October 1929, 1987 and, most recently, 2008.</p><p><blockquote><b>纽约（CNN商业）——</b>十月在华尔街通常是一个阴森的月份。股市在1929年10月、1987年以及最近的2008年暴跌。</blockquote></p><p> But&nbsp;the marketisn't always a terrifying place to be just before Halloween. In fact,stocks typically go up&nbsp;in October.</p><p><blockquote>但万圣节前夕，市场并不总是一个可怕的地方。事实上，股市通常会在十月份上涨。</blockquote></p><p> According to data from Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at LPL Financial, October is just about in the middle of the pack: It has been the 7th best month for the S&amp;P 500 since 1950 and the 4th best over the past 10 and 20 years.</p><p><blockquote>根据LPL Financial首席市场策略师Ryan Detrick的数据，10月份几乎处于中间位置：它是标普500自1950年以来第7个最佳月份，也是过去10年和20年中第4个最佳月份。</blockquote></p><p> \"October is known for some spectacular crashes and many expect bad things to happen again this year,\" Detrick said in a report last week. \"But the truth is this month is simply misunderstood, as historically it is about an average month.\"</p><p><blockquote>德特里克在上周的一份报告中表示：“十月份因一些壮观的车祸而闻名，许多人预计今年会再次发生糟糕的事情。”“但事实是这个月只是被误解了，因为从历史上看，它大约是一个普通的月份。”</blockquote></p><p> And it could be better than average this October, because there are no potentially game-changing election results coming in November.</p><p><blockquote>今年10月的情况可能会好于平均水平，因为11月没有可能改变游戏规则的选举结果。</blockquote></p><p> Since 1999, the S&amp;P 500 has gained 3.6% in odd-year Octobers and fallen 1.1% in even-numbered ones, corresponding to the US election schedule.</p><p><blockquote>自1999年以来，标普500在奇数年10月上涨3.6%，在偶数年10月下跌1.1%，与美国大选时间表相对应。</blockquote></p><p> \"It turns out stocks don't like politics much,\" Detrick said.</p><p><blockquote>“事实证明，股票不太喜欢政治，”德特里克说。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Many risks remain but outlook still promising for stocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>许多风险依然存在，但股市前景仍然乐观</b></blockquote></p><p> Of course DC headlines could still roil the market this year, albeit not because of an election.</p><p><blockquote>当然，今年DC的头条新闻仍可能扰乱市场，尽管不是因为选举。</blockquote></p><p> The debt ceiling debate has yet to be resolved, and Congress still hasn't passed President Joe Biden's infrastructure and social spending plans. Meanwhile Biden also must soon decide whether he wants to nominate Jerome Powell for a second term as Fed chairman or pick someone else.</p><p><blockquote>债务上限争论尚未解决，国会仍未通过总统乔·拜登的基础设施和社会支出计划。与此同时，拜登还必须很快决定是提名杰罗姆·鲍威尔连任美联储主席，还是选择其他人。</blockquote></p><p> \"The fourth quarter — like the conclusion of sporting events or Broadway plays — is where the drama lies,\" Louis Navellier, chairman of Navellier &amp; Associates, said in a report last week.</p><p><blockquote>Navellier&amp;Associates董事长路易斯·纳维利尔(Louis Navellier)在上周的一份报告中表示：“第四季度——就像体育赛事或百老汇戏剧的结局一样——是戏剧所在。”</blockquote></p><p> That said, Navellier is hopeful the usual seasonal tailwinds for the markets and the broader economy will lift stocks this year.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，纳维利尔希望市场和整体经济通常的季节性顺风能够提振今年的股市。</blockquote></p><p> Stocks tend to enjoy not just solid gains in October, but also for the remainder of the fourth quarter. Consumer spending surges during the holiday shopping season and businesses often look to boost investments before annual budgets run out.</p><p><blockquote>股市往往不仅在10月份强劲上涨，而且在第四季度剩余时间也是如此。消费者支出在假日购物季激增，企业通常希望在年度预算用完之前增加投资。</blockquote></p><p> With that in mind, some strategists think that investors will continue to focus on the positive when looking ahead to earnings for Q4 and 2022.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到这一点，一些策略师认为，在展望第四季度和2022年的收益时，投资者将继续关注积极的一面。</blockquote></p><p> Yes, worries remain about Covid-19, Fed policy, inflation, global shipping delays and numerous other economic warning signs.</p><p><blockquote>是的，对新冠肺炎、美联储政策、通货膨胀、全球航运延误和许多其他经济警告信号的担忧仍然存在。</blockquote></p><p> But although this could create more volatility than usual in October and the rest of the fourth quarter, few expect that these challenges will lead to another recession. So the path of least resistance for stocks is still upward.</p><p><blockquote>不过，尽管这可能会在10月份和第四季度剩余时间造成比往常更大的波动，但很少有人预计这些挑战会导致另一场衰退。所以股票阻力最小的路径仍然是向上。</blockquote></p><p> \"Virtually all of these problems are showing tangible signs toward resolution,\" Robert Teeter, managing director at Silvercrest Asset Management, said in a report Monday, \"and should not inflict any long-term damage to stock valuations.\"</p><p><blockquote>Silvercrest Asset Management董事总经理罗伯特·蒂特(Robert Teeter)在周一的一份报告中表示：“几乎所有这些问题都显示出解决的切实迹象，并且不会对股票估值造成任何长期损害。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/05/investing/october-stocks/index.html\">CNN Business</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/05/investing/october-stocks/index.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1103782575","content_text":"New York (CNN Business) - October has often been a spooky month on Wall Street. Stocks famously crashed in October 1929, 1987 and, most recently, 2008.\nBut the marketisn't always a terrifying place to be just before Halloween. In fact,stocks typically go up in October.\nAccording to data from Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at LPL Financial, October is just about in the middle of the pack: It has been the 7th best month for the S&P 500 since 1950 and the 4th best over the past 10 and 20 years.\n\"October is known for some spectacular crashes and many expect bad things to happen again this year,\" Detrick said in a report last week. \"But the truth is this month is simply misunderstood, as historically it is about an average month.\"\nAnd it could be better than average this October, because there are no potentially game-changing election results coming in November.\nSince 1999, the S&P 500 has gained 3.6% in odd-year Octobers and fallen 1.1% in even-numbered ones, corresponding to the US election schedule.\n\"It turns out stocks don't like politics much,\" Detrick said.\nMany risks remain but outlook still promising for stocks\nOf course DC headlines could still roil the market this year, albeit not because of an election.\nThe debt ceiling debate has yet to be resolved, and Congress still hasn't passed President Joe Biden's infrastructure and social spending plans. Meanwhile Biden also must soon decide whether he wants to nominate Jerome Powell for a second term as Fed chairman or pick someone else.\n\"The fourth quarter — like the conclusion of sporting events or Broadway plays — is where the drama lies,\" Louis Navellier, chairman of Navellier & Associates, said in a report last week.\nThat said, Navellier is hopeful the usual seasonal tailwinds for the markets and the broader economy will lift stocks this year.\nStocks tend to enjoy not just solid gains in October, but also for the remainder of the fourth quarter. Consumer spending surges during the holiday shopping season and businesses often look to boost investments before annual budgets run out.\nWith that in mind, some strategists think that investors will continue to focus on the positive when looking ahead to earnings for Q4 and 2022.\nYes, worries remain about Covid-19, Fed policy, inflation, global shipping delays and numerous other economic warning signs.\nBut although this could create more volatility than usual in October and the rest of the fourth quarter, few expect that these challenges will lead to another recession. So the path of least resistance for stocks is still upward.\n\"Virtually all of these problems are showing tangible signs toward resolution,\" Robert Teeter, managing director at Silvercrest Asset Management, said in a report Monday, \"and should not inflict any long-term damage to stock valuations.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1231,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":881584412,"gmtCreate":1631364286736,"gmtModify":1631889774085,"author":{"id":"3582016577975526","authorId":"3582016577975526","name":"ivanlam","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b69aadeaeb7dadd4cee48a1d48771644","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582016577975526","authorIdStr":"3582016577975526"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":15,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/881584412","repostId":"1147045390","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1147045390","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631321547,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1147045390?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-11 08:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Apple’s Risk Is Limited<blockquote>为什么苹果的风险有限</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147045390","media":"Barrons","summary":"Apple faces real, but limited, risk to its revenue and profits from Friday’s ruling that requires it to allow developers to offer alternative payment methods for purchases made in apps downloaded through the Apple app store.In a case filed by Fortnite publisher Epic Games, U.S. District Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers issued a permanent injunction that requires Apple  to allow developers the option to include links to alternative payment methods in their apps. Apple’s own payment system takes a 30%","content":"<p>Apple faces real, but limited, risk to its revenue and profits from Friday’s ruling that requires it to allow developers to offer alternative payment methods for purchases made in apps downloaded through the Apple app store.</p><p><blockquote>周五的裁决要求苹果允许开发者为通过苹果应用商店下载的应用程序中的购买提供替代支付方式，这给其收入和利润带来了真实但有限的风险。</blockquote></p><p> In a case filed by Fortnite publisher Epic Games, U.S. District Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers issued a permanent injunction that requires Apple (ticker: AAPL) to allow developers the option to include links to alternative payment methods in their apps. Apple’s own payment system takes a 30% cut from large developers.</p><p><blockquote>在堡垒之夜发行商Epic Games提起的案件中，美国地区法官Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers发布了一项永久禁令，要求苹果（股票代码：AAPL）允许开发者选择在其应用程序中包含替代支付方式的链接。苹果自己的支付系统从大型开发商那里收取30%的提成。</blockquote></p><p> Data from the app tracker SensorTower shows that in calendar 2020, Apple had overall revenue from the App Store of $72.3 billion, generating an estimated $21.7 billion in fees, or about 7% of Apple’s overall revenues. That includes $21 billion in spending in the U.S., generating about $6.3 billion in fees, or about 2% of annualized revenues.</p><p><blockquote>应用追踪器SensorTower的数据显示，2020年，苹果从App Store获得的总收入为723亿美元，产生的费用估计为217亿美元，约占苹果总收入的7%。其中包括在美国的210亿美元支出，产生约63亿美元的费用，约占年收入的2%。</blockquote></p><p> SensorTower estimates that mobile-game spending in the App Store in calendar 2020 was $47.6 billion, generating $14.3 billion in fees, or a little under 5% of Apple’s total revenues.</p><p><blockquote>SensorTower估计，2020年App Store中的手机游戏支出为476亿美元，产生143亿美元的费用，略低于苹果总收入的5%。</blockquote></p><p> Gene Munster, managing director of the venture firm Loup Capital and a former sell-side analyst with a long history of tracking Apple, estimated that the App Store accounts for about 14% of the company’s profits. But he sees limited risk from Friday’s ruling.</p><p><blockquote>风险投资公司Loup Capital董事总经理、长期跟踪苹果的前卖方分析师吉恩·蒙斯特(Gene Munster)估计，App Store约占该公司利润的14%。但他认为周五裁决的风险有限。</blockquote></p><p> Munster thinks most app developers will stay inside of the Apple system. He sees “at most” a 2% headwind to overall revenue, and a potential 4% hit to profits.</p><p><blockquote>蒙斯特认为大多数应用程序开发人员将留在苹果系统内。他认为整体收入“最多”会受到2%的阻力，利润可能会受到4%的打击。</blockquote></p><p> “After the first year of these changes, app store growth rates will return to normal,” he said. “Bottom line, it’s at most a one-year headwind and does not change the big picture of where Apple is going over the next 5 years.”</p><p><blockquote>“在这些变化的第一年之后，app store的增长率将恢复正常，”他说。“最重要的是，这最多是一年的逆风，不会改变苹果未来5年的发展方向。”</blockquote></p><p> Evercore ISI analyst Amit Daryanani said in a research note that the ruling is a setback for Apple, but that the eventual impact is likely to be manageable, given Apple has alternative ways to generate revenue from the store, including its growing in-store ad business. And he noted that Apple actually got a win on a bigger issue in the case: The judge rejected Epic’s assertion that the App Store is an illegal monopoly. Daryanani estimated the risk to Apple’s per-share earnings at 2% to 4%.</p><p><blockquote>Evercore ISI分析师Amit Daryanani在一份研究报告中表示，这一裁决对苹果来说是一次挫折，但鉴于苹果有其他方式从商店创收，包括其不断增长的店内广告业务，最终的影响可能是可控的。他指出，苹果实际上在该案中的一个更大问题上取得了胜利：法官驳回了Epic关于App Store是非法垄断的主张。Daryanani估计苹果每股收益面临的风险为2%至4%。</blockquote></p><p> Wedbush analyst Dan Ives told&nbsp;<i>Barron’s</i>&nbsp;he thinks the worst-case scenario is a 3% to 4% hit to revenues, describing the risk as a “rounding error.” While Ives said the Street had expected an across-the-board win for Apple, the mixed decision removes an overhang on the stock and that investors are likely relieved to put the issue to rest.</p><p><blockquote>Wedbush分析师Dan Ives告诉<i>巴伦周刊</i>他认为最坏的情况是收入受到3%至4%的打击，并将这种风险描述为“舍入误差”。虽然Ives表示，华尔街原本预计苹果会全面获胜，但这一喜忧参半的决定消除了该股的悬念，投资者可能会因为解决这个问题而松一口气。</blockquote></p><p> The ruling is more a positive for companies like&nbsp;Spotify Technology&nbsp;and&nbsp;Match Group&nbsp;than it is a negative for Apple, he said. Apple stock fell 3.3% to $148.97&nbsp;on&nbsp;Friday, while Spotify and March gained 0.7% and&nbsp;4.2%, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>他表示，这一裁决对Spotify Technology和Match Group等公司来说更多的是积极的，而不是对苹果的负面影响。苹果股价周五下跌3.3%，至148.97美元，Spotify和March分别上涨0.7%和4.</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Apple’s Risk Is Limited<blockquote>为什么苹果的风险有限</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Apple’s Risk Is Limited<blockquote>为什么苹果的风险有限</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-11 08:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Apple faces real, but limited, risk to its revenue and profits from Friday’s ruling that requires it to allow developers to offer alternative payment methods for purchases made in apps downloaded through the Apple app store.</p><p><blockquote>周五的裁决要求苹果允许开发者为通过苹果应用商店下载的应用程序中的购买提供替代支付方式，这给其收入和利润带来了真实但有限的风险。</blockquote></p><p> In a case filed by Fortnite publisher Epic Games, U.S. District Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers issued a permanent injunction that requires Apple (ticker: AAPL) to allow developers the option to include links to alternative payment methods in their apps. Apple’s own payment system takes a 30% cut from large developers.</p><p><blockquote>在堡垒之夜发行商Epic Games提起的案件中，美国地区法官Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers发布了一项永久禁令，要求苹果（股票代码：AAPL）允许开发者选择在其应用程序中包含替代支付方式的链接。苹果自己的支付系统从大型开发商那里收取30%的提成。</blockquote></p><p> Data from the app tracker SensorTower shows that in calendar 2020, Apple had overall revenue from the App Store of $72.3 billion, generating an estimated $21.7 billion in fees, or about 7% of Apple’s overall revenues. That includes $21 billion in spending in the U.S., generating about $6.3 billion in fees, or about 2% of annualized revenues.</p><p><blockquote>应用追踪器SensorTower的数据显示，2020年，苹果从App Store获得的总收入为723亿美元，产生的费用估计为217亿美元，约占苹果总收入的7%。其中包括在美国的210亿美元支出，产生约63亿美元的费用，约占年收入的2%。</blockquote></p><p> SensorTower estimates that mobile-game spending in the App Store in calendar 2020 was $47.6 billion, generating $14.3 billion in fees, or a little under 5% of Apple’s total revenues.</p><p><blockquote>SensorTower估计，2020年App Store中的手机游戏支出为476亿美元，产生143亿美元的费用，略低于苹果总收入的5%。</blockquote></p><p> Gene Munster, managing director of the venture firm Loup Capital and a former sell-side analyst with a long history of tracking Apple, estimated that the App Store accounts for about 14% of the company’s profits. But he sees limited risk from Friday’s ruling.</p><p><blockquote>风险投资公司Loup Capital董事总经理、长期跟踪苹果的前卖方分析师吉恩·蒙斯特(Gene Munster)估计，App Store约占该公司利润的14%。但他认为周五裁决的风险有限。</blockquote></p><p> Munster thinks most app developers will stay inside of the Apple system. He sees “at most” a 2% headwind to overall revenue, and a potential 4% hit to profits.</p><p><blockquote>蒙斯特认为大多数应用程序开发人员将留在苹果系统内。他认为整体收入“最多”会受到2%的阻力，利润可能会受到4%的打击。</blockquote></p><p> “After the first year of these changes, app store growth rates will return to normal,” he said. “Bottom line, it’s at most a one-year headwind and does not change the big picture of where Apple is going over the next 5 years.”</p><p><blockquote>“在这些变化的第一年之后，app store的增长率将恢复正常，”他说。“最重要的是，这最多是一年的逆风，不会改变苹果未来5年的发展方向。”</blockquote></p><p> Evercore ISI analyst Amit Daryanani said in a research note that the ruling is a setback for Apple, but that the eventual impact is likely to be manageable, given Apple has alternative ways to generate revenue from the store, including its growing in-store ad business. And he noted that Apple actually got a win on a bigger issue in the case: The judge rejected Epic’s assertion that the App Store is an illegal monopoly. Daryanani estimated the risk to Apple’s per-share earnings at 2% to 4%.</p><p><blockquote>Evercore ISI分析师Amit Daryanani在一份研究报告中表示，这一裁决对苹果来说是一次挫折，但鉴于苹果有其他方式从商店创收，包括其不断增长的店内广告业务，最终的影响可能是可控的。他指出，苹果实际上在该案中的一个更大问题上取得了胜利：法官驳回了Epic关于App Store是非法垄断的主张。Daryanani估计苹果每股收益面临的风险为2%至4%。</blockquote></p><p> Wedbush analyst Dan Ives told&nbsp;<i>Barron’s</i>&nbsp;he thinks the worst-case scenario is a 3% to 4% hit to revenues, describing the risk as a “rounding error.” While Ives said the Street had expected an across-the-board win for Apple, the mixed decision removes an overhang on the stock and that investors are likely relieved to put the issue to rest.</p><p><blockquote>Wedbush分析师Dan Ives告诉<i>巴伦周刊</i>他认为最坏的情况是收入受到3%至4%的打击，并将这种风险描述为“舍入误差”。虽然Ives表示，华尔街原本预计苹果会全面获胜，但这一喜忧参半的决定消除了该股的悬念，投资者可能会因为解决这个问题而松一口气。</blockquote></p><p> The ruling is more a positive for companies like&nbsp;Spotify Technology&nbsp;and&nbsp;Match Group&nbsp;than it is a negative for Apple, he said. Apple stock fell 3.3% to $148.97&nbsp;on&nbsp;Friday, while Spotify and March gained 0.7% and&nbsp;4.2%, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>他表示，这一裁决对Spotify Technology和Match Group等公司来说更多的是积极的，而不是对苹果的负面影响。苹果股价周五下跌3.3%，至148.97美元，Spotify和March分别上涨0.7%和4.</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/apple-app-store-epic-51631304007?mod=hp_LEAD_1_B_2\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/apple-app-store-epic-51631304007?mod=hp_LEAD_1_B_2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147045390","content_text":"Apple faces real, but limited, risk to its revenue and profits from Friday’s ruling that requires it to allow developers to offer alternative payment methods for purchases made in apps downloaded through the Apple app store.\nIn a case filed by Fortnite publisher Epic Games, U.S. District Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers issued a permanent injunction that requires Apple (ticker: AAPL) to allow developers the option to include links to alternative payment methods in their apps. Apple’s own payment system takes a 30% cut from large developers.\nData from the app tracker SensorTower shows that in calendar 2020, Apple had overall revenue from the App Store of $72.3 billion, generating an estimated $21.7 billion in fees, or about 7% of Apple’s overall revenues. That includes $21 billion in spending in the U.S., generating about $6.3 billion in fees, or about 2% of annualized revenues.\nSensorTower estimates that mobile-game spending in the App Store in calendar 2020 was $47.6 billion, generating $14.3 billion in fees, or a little under 5% of Apple’s total revenues.\nGene Munster, managing director of the venture firm Loup Capital and a former sell-side analyst with a long history of tracking Apple, estimated that the App Store accounts for about 14% of the company’s profits. But he sees limited risk from Friday’s ruling.\nMunster thinks most app developers will stay inside of the Apple system. He sees “at most” a 2% headwind to overall revenue, and a potential 4% hit to profits.\n“After the first year of these changes, app store growth rates will return to normal,” he said. “Bottom line, it’s at most a one-year headwind and does not change the big picture of where Apple is going over the next 5 years.”\nEvercore ISI analyst Amit Daryanani said in a research note that the ruling is a setback for Apple, but that the eventual impact is likely to be manageable, given Apple has alternative ways to generate revenue from the store, including its growing in-store ad business. And he noted that Apple actually got a win on a bigger issue in the case: The judge rejected Epic’s assertion that the App Store is an illegal monopoly. Daryanani estimated the risk to Apple’s per-share earnings at 2% to 4%.\nWedbush analyst Dan Ives told Barron’s he thinks the worst-case scenario is a 3% to 4% hit to revenues, describing the risk as a “rounding error.” While Ives said the Street had expected an across-the-board win for Apple, the mixed decision removes an overhang on the stock and that investors are likely relieved to put the issue to rest.\nThe ruling is more a positive for companies like Spotify Technology and Match Group than it is a negative for Apple, he said. Apple stock fell 3.3% to $148.97 on Friday, while Spotify and March gained 0.7% and 4.2%, respectively.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":441,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":889957828,"gmtCreate":1631106486864,"gmtModify":1631889774091,"author":{"id":"3582016577975526","authorId":"3582016577975526","name":"ivanlam","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b69aadeaeb7dadd4cee48a1d48771644","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582016577975526","authorIdStr":"3582016577975526"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":15,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/889957828","repostId":"1152198957","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":823,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":814961055,"gmtCreate":1630744655977,"gmtModify":1632906060619,"author":{"id":"3582016577975526","authorId":"3582016577975526","name":"ivanlam","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b69aadeaeb7dadd4cee48a1d48771644","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582016577975526","authorIdStr":"3582016577975526"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":15,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/814961055","repostId":"1186003479","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":526,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":812886693,"gmtCreate":1630573362112,"gmtModify":1632472277634,"author":{"id":"3582016577975526","authorId":"3582016577975526","name":"ivanlam","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b69aadeaeb7dadd4cee48a1d48771644","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582016577975526","authorIdStr":"3582016577975526"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":15,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/812886693","repostId":"1130673272","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1130673272","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1630572656,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1130673272?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-02 16:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Support.com shares surged more than 17% in premarket trading<blockquote>Support.com股价在盘前交易中飙升超过17%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130673272","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Support.com shares surged more than 17% in premarket trading.\nSupport.com are up more than 200% over","content":"<p>Support.com&nbsp;shares&nbsp;surged&nbsp;more&nbsp;than&nbsp;17%&nbsp;in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading.</p><p><blockquote>Support.com股价在盘前交易中飙升逾17%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ccede144c27b6abe88f1dcc7e13e36c9\" tg-width=\"892\" tg-height=\"632\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Support.com&nbsp;are up more than 200% over the last month amid increasing retail investor interest.</p><p><blockquote>由于散户投资者的兴趣不断增加，Support.com的股价上个月上涨了200%以上。</blockquote></p><p> This is certainly not a company on Wall Street's radar. There are no current analysts following the stock, says S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence. That means there are no valid earnings or revenue estimates, much less a price target.</p><p><blockquote>这当然不是华尔街关注的公司。标准普尔全球市场情报表示，目前没有分析师关注该股。这意味着没有有效的盈利或收入估计，更不用说价格目标了。</blockquote></p><p> Investors are looking to Support.com as the latest opportunity to rush into a stock with heavy short interest and run it up.</p><p><blockquote>投资者将Support.com视为买入空头兴趣浓厚的股票并将其上涨的最新机会。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Support.com shares surged more than 17% in premarket trading<blockquote>Support.com股价在盘前交易中飙升超过17%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSupport.com shares surged more than 17% in premarket trading<blockquote>Support.com股价在盘前交易中飙升超过17%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-09-02 16:50</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Support.com&nbsp;shares&nbsp;surged&nbsp;more&nbsp;than&nbsp;17%&nbsp;in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading.</p><p><blockquote>Support.com股价在盘前交易中飙升逾17%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ccede144c27b6abe88f1dcc7e13e36c9\" tg-width=\"892\" tg-height=\"632\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Support.com&nbsp;are up more than 200% over the last month amid increasing retail investor interest.</p><p><blockquote>由于散户投资者的兴趣不断增加，Support.com的股价上个月上涨了200%以上。</blockquote></p><p> This is certainly not a company on Wall Street's radar. There are no current analysts following the stock, says S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence. That means there are no valid earnings or revenue estimates, much less a price target.</p><p><blockquote>这当然不是华尔街关注的公司。标准普尔全球市场情报表示，目前没有分析师关注该股。这意味着没有有效的盈利或收入估计，更不用说价格目标了。</blockquote></p><p> Investors are looking to Support.com as the latest opportunity to rush into a stock with heavy short interest and run it up.</p><p><blockquote>投资者将Support.com视为买入空头兴趣浓厚的股票并将其上涨的最新机会。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPRT":"Support.com"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130673272","content_text":"Support.com shares surged more than 17% in premarket trading.\nSupport.com are up more than 200% over the last month amid increasing retail investor interest.\nThis is certainly not a company on Wall Street's radar. There are no current analysts following the stock, says S&P Global Market Intelligence. That means there are no valid earnings or revenue estimates, much less a price target.\nInvestors are looking to Support.com as the latest opportunity to rush into a stock with heavy short interest and run it up.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPRT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":531,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":864779613,"gmtCreate":1633155519146,"gmtModify":1633155610141,"author":{"id":"3582016577975526","authorId":"3582016577975526","name":"ivanlam","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b69aadeaeb7dadd4cee48a1d48771644","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582016577975526","authorIdStr":"3582016577975526"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":16,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/864779613","repostId":"2172961877","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":470,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":863207457,"gmtCreate":1632393569179,"gmtModify":1632800720437,"author":{"id":"3582016577975526","authorId":"3582016577975526","name":"ivanlam","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b69aadeaeb7dadd4cee48a1d48771644","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582016577975526","authorIdStr":"3582016577975526"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":16,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/863207457","repostId":"2169616196","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":544,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":884385957,"gmtCreate":1631857262879,"gmtModify":1631889774065,"author":{"id":"3582016577975526","authorId":"3582016577975526","name":"ivanlam","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b69aadeaeb7dadd4cee48a1d48771644","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582016577975526","authorIdStr":"3582016577975526"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Haiz","listText":"Haiz","text":"Haiz","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":16,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/884385957","repostId":"2168233445","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":577,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":888063118,"gmtCreate":1631413982234,"gmtModify":1631889774078,"author":{"id":"3582016577975526","authorId":"3582016577975526","name":"ivanlam","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b69aadeaeb7dadd4cee48a1d48771644","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582016577975526","authorIdStr":"3582016577975526"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":15,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/888063118","repostId":"1189654544","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1189654544","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631406130,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1189654544?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-12 08:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"US IPO Week Ahead: The Fall IPO market kicks off with a 10 IPO week<blockquote>美国IPO周：秋季IPO市场以10周IPO拉开帷幕</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1189654544","media":"Renaissance Capital","summary":"After a wave of launches in the short holiday week, 10 IPOs are scheduled to raise over $3 billion i","content":"<p>After a wave of launches in the short holiday week, 10 IPOs are scheduled to raise over $3 billion in the week ahead.</p><p><blockquote>在短暂的假期周经历了一波发行之后，未来一周将有10起IPO计划筹集超过30亿美元的资金。</blockquote></p><p> Tech consultancy&nbsp;<b>Thoughtworks</b>(TWKS) plans to raise $700 million at a $6.3 billion market cap. This agile software developer provides premium, end-to-end digital strategy, design, and engineering services to more than 300 enterprise customers. The company grew revenue at a 14% CAGR from 2017 to 2020, and expanded margins in 2020 and the 1H21.</p><p><blockquote>技术咨询<b>Thoughtworks</b>(TWKS)计划以63亿美元的市值筹集7亿美元。这家敏捷软件开发商为300多家企业客户提供优质的端到端数字战略、设计和工程服务。从2017年到2020年，该公司的收入复合年增长率为14%，并在2020年和2021年上半年扩大了利润率。</blockquote></p><p> Swiss running shoe brand&nbsp;<b>On Holding</b>(ONON) plans to raise $591 million at a $5.9 billion market cap. On is a global provider of premium athletic footwear, apparel, and accessories that are designed using sustainable materials and its proprietary technology. The company has demonstrated growth and profitability, though it faces significant competition from other well-known sportswear brands.</p><p><blockquote>瑞士跑鞋品牌<b>持有时</b>(ONON)计划以59亿美元的市值筹集5.91亿美元。On是一家全球优质运动鞋、服装和配饰供应商，采用可持续材料及其专有技术设计。尽管面临来自其他知名运动服装品牌的激烈竞争，但该公司已展现出增长和盈利能力。</blockquote></p><p> After ending talks to go public via SPAC,<b>Sportradar Group</b>(SRAD) plans to raise $504 million at a $7.9 billion market cap. Covering over 750,000 events annually across 83 sports, this Swiss company provides software, data, and content to sports leagues, betting operators, and media companies. Sportradar is profitable, and growth accelerated in the 1H21 as live sports resumed.</p><p><blockquote>在结束通过SPAC上市的谈判后，<b>Sportradar集团</b>(SRAD)计划以79亿美元的市值筹集5.04亿美元。这家瑞士公司每年报道83项运动的750,000多场赛事，为体育联盟、博彩运营商和媒体公司提供软件、数据和内容。Sportradar已实现盈利，随着体育直播的恢复，2021年上半年增长加速。</blockquote></p><p> Drive-thru coffee chain&nbsp;<b>Dutch Bros</b>(BROS) plans to raise $400 million at a $3.3 billion market cap. This Oregon-based company has a chain of 471 drive-thru coffee shops in the Western US, and it has been able to maintain a track record of same-store sales growth as it has expanded to new states. Insiders received pre-IPO dividends and will sell shares back to the company.</p><p><blockquote>得来速咖啡连锁店<b>荷兰兄弟</b>(BROS)计划以33亿美元的市值筹集4亿美元。这家总部位于俄勒冈州的公司在美国西部拥有471家得来速咖啡店连锁店，随着业务扩展到新州，它一直能够保持同店销售增长的记录。内部人士收到了IPO前的股息，并将把股票卖回给公司。</blockquote></p><p> Healthcare intelligence platform&nbsp;<b>Definitive Healthcare</b>(DH) plans to raise $350 million at a $3.3 billion market cap. This company provides a healthcare commercial intelligence and analytics platform, helping its customers to analyze, navigate, and sell into the complex healthcare ecosystem. Unprofitable with strong growth, Definitive Healthcare will be leveraged post-IPO.</p><p><blockquote>医疗智能平台<b>权威医疗保健</b>(DH)计划以33亿美元的市值筹集3.5亿美元。该公司提供医疗保健商业智能和分析平台，帮助其客户分析、导航和销售复杂的医疗保健生态系统。由于增长强劲，Definitive Healthcare尚未盈利，但将在IPO后进行杠杆化。</blockquote></p><p> Identity management platform&nbsp;<b>ForgeRock</b>(FORG) plans to raise $248 million at a $2.1 billion market cap. The company provides identity and access management software, with a platform to provision, authenticate, and govern all types of digital identities. Unprofitable with high sales and marketing expenses, ForgeRock is a leading next-gen provider in the multi-billion-dollar identity and access market.</p><p><blockquote>身份管理平台<b>ForgeRock</b>(FORG)计划以21亿美元的市值筹集2.48亿美元。该公司提供身份和访问管理软件，以及一个提供、认证和管理所有类型数字身份的平台。由于销售和营销费用高昂，ForgeRock无利可图，是价值数十亿美元的身份和访问市场中领先的下一代提供商。</blockquote></p><p> Immunology biotech&nbsp;<b>DICE Therapeutics</b>(DICE) plans to raise $160 million at a $550 million market cap. This biotech is developing oral small molecule therapies to treat chronic diseases in immunology and other therapeutic areas. DICE plans to initiate a Phase 1 trial of its lead candidate S011806, an oral antagonist with a variety of immunology indications.</p><p><blockquote>免疫学生物技术<b>骰子疗法</b>(DICE)计划以5.5亿美元的市值筹集1.6亿美元。这家生物技术公司正在开发口服小分子疗法，以治疗免疫学和其他治疗领域的慢性疾病。DICE计划启动其主要候选药物S011806的1期试验，这是一种具有多种免疫学适应症的口服拮抗剂。</blockquote></p><p> Surgical robotics developer&nbsp;<b>PROCEPT BioRobotics</b>(PRCT) plans to raise $127 million at a $1.1 billion market cap. This commercial-stage company develops surgical robotic systems for minimally-invasive urologic surgery with an initial focus on treating benign prostatic hyperplasia. PROCEPT BioRobotics is highly unprofitable and saw revenue increase more than sixfold in the 1H21.</p><p><blockquote>手术机器人开发商<b>PROCEPT生物机器人</b>(PRCT)计划以11亿美元的市值筹集1.27亿美元。这家商业阶段的公司开发用于微创泌尿外科手术的手术机器人系统，最初的重点是治疗良性前列腺增生。PROCEPT BioRobotics非常无利可图，2021年上半年收入增长了六倍多。</blockquote></p><p> Oncology biotech&nbsp;<b>Tyra Biosciences</b>(TYRA) plans to raise $101 million at a $584 million market cap. This preclinical biotech is developing FGFR kinase inhibitors for cancer, specifically solid tumors. Tyra’s lead candidate is initially focused on bladder cancer, and the company expects to submit an IND for it in mid-2022.</p><p><blockquote>肿瘤生物技术<b>泰拉生物科学公司</b>(TYRA)计划以5.84亿美元的市值筹集1.01亿美元。这家临床前生物技术公司正在开发用于癌症，特别是实体瘤的FGFR激酶抑制剂。Tyra的主要候选药物最初专注于膀胱癌，该公司预计将于2022年中期提交IND。</blockquote></p><p> Micro-cap gas delivery service&nbsp;<b>EzFill Holdings</b>(EZFL) plans to raise $25 million at a $104 million market cap. This mobile-fueling company provides an on-demand fuel delivery service in Florida via mobile app. Highly unprofitable with explosive growth, EzFill states that it is the dominant player in the South Florida market.</p><p><blockquote>微帽气体输送服务<b>埃兹菲尔控股</b>(EZFL)计划以1.04亿美元的市值筹集2500万美元。这家移动加油公司通过移动应用程序在佛罗里达州提供按需加油服务。由于爆炸性增长，EzFill表示，它是南佛罗里达州市场的主导者。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/718698ff98644c4026f32efe91d076c6\" tg-width=\"1128\" tg-height=\"684\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97fe13300d9e4cf61effc59b9706776a\" tg-width=\"1129\" tg-height=\"247\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>IPO Market Snapshot</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IPO市场快照</b></blockquote></p><p> The Renaissance IPO Indices are market cap weighted baskets of newly public companies. As of 9/9/21, the Renaissance IPO Index was up 7.7% year-to-date, while the S&amp;P 500 was up 19.6%. Renaissance Capital's IPO ETF (NYSE: IPO) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Snowflake (SNOW) and Palantir Technologies (PLTR). The Renaissance International IPO Index was down 11.0% year-to-date, while the ACWX was up 10.0%. Renaissance Capital’s International IPO ETF (NYSE: IPOS) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Smoore International and EQT Partners.</p><p><blockquote>文艺复兴IPO指数是新上市公司的市值加权篮子。截至9/9/21，文艺复兴IPO指数今年迄今上涨了7.7%，而标普500上涨了19.6%。Renaissance Capital的IPO ETF（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IPO）跟踪该指数，持有的顶级ETF包括Snowflake（SNOW）和Palantir Technologies（PLTR）。Renaissance International IPO指数今年迄今下跌11.0%，而ACWX指数上涨10.0%。Renaissance Capital的国际IPO ETF（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IPOS）跟踪该指数，持有的顶级ETF包括思摩尔国际和殷拓合伙人。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603787993745","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US IPO Week Ahead: The Fall IPO market kicks off with a 10 IPO week<blockquote>美国IPO周：秋季IPO市场以10周IPO拉开帷幕</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS IPO Week Ahead: The Fall IPO market kicks off with a 10 IPO week<blockquote>美国IPO周：秋季IPO市场以10周IPO拉开帷幕</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Renaissance Capital</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-12 08:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>After a wave of launches in the short holiday week, 10 IPOs are scheduled to raise over $3 billion in the week ahead.</p><p><blockquote>在短暂的假期周经历了一波发行之后，未来一周将有10起IPO计划筹集超过30亿美元的资金。</blockquote></p><p> Tech consultancy&nbsp;<b>Thoughtworks</b>(TWKS) plans to raise $700 million at a $6.3 billion market cap. This agile software developer provides premium, end-to-end digital strategy, design, and engineering services to more than 300 enterprise customers. The company grew revenue at a 14% CAGR from 2017 to 2020, and expanded margins in 2020 and the 1H21.</p><p><blockquote>技术咨询<b>Thoughtworks</b>(TWKS)计划以63亿美元的市值筹集7亿美元。这家敏捷软件开发商为300多家企业客户提供优质的端到端数字战略、设计和工程服务。从2017年到2020年，该公司的收入复合年增长率为14%，并在2020年和2021年上半年扩大了利润率。</blockquote></p><p> Swiss running shoe brand&nbsp;<b>On Holding</b>(ONON) plans to raise $591 million at a $5.9 billion market cap. On is a global provider of premium athletic footwear, apparel, and accessories that are designed using sustainable materials and its proprietary technology. The company has demonstrated growth and profitability, though it faces significant competition from other well-known sportswear brands.</p><p><blockquote>瑞士跑鞋品牌<b>持有时</b>(ONON)计划以59亿美元的市值筹集5.91亿美元。On是一家全球优质运动鞋、服装和配饰供应商，采用可持续材料及其专有技术设计。尽管面临来自其他知名运动服装品牌的激烈竞争，但该公司已展现出增长和盈利能力。</blockquote></p><p> After ending talks to go public via SPAC,<b>Sportradar Group</b>(SRAD) plans to raise $504 million at a $7.9 billion market cap. Covering over 750,000 events annually across 83 sports, this Swiss company provides software, data, and content to sports leagues, betting operators, and media companies. Sportradar is profitable, and growth accelerated in the 1H21 as live sports resumed.</p><p><blockquote>在结束通过SPAC上市的谈判后，<b>Sportradar集团</b>(SRAD)计划以79亿美元的市值筹集5.04亿美元。这家瑞士公司每年报道83项运动的750,000多场赛事，为体育联盟、博彩运营商和媒体公司提供软件、数据和内容。Sportradar已实现盈利，随着体育直播的恢复，2021年上半年增长加速。</blockquote></p><p> Drive-thru coffee chain&nbsp;<b>Dutch Bros</b>(BROS) plans to raise $400 million at a $3.3 billion market cap. This Oregon-based company has a chain of 471 drive-thru coffee shops in the Western US, and it has been able to maintain a track record of same-store sales growth as it has expanded to new states. Insiders received pre-IPO dividends and will sell shares back to the company.</p><p><blockquote>得来速咖啡连锁店<b>荷兰兄弟</b>(BROS)计划以33亿美元的市值筹集4亿美元。这家总部位于俄勒冈州的公司在美国西部拥有471家得来速咖啡店连锁店，随着业务扩展到新州，它一直能够保持同店销售增长的记录。内部人士收到了IPO前的股息，并将把股票卖回给公司。</blockquote></p><p> Healthcare intelligence platform&nbsp;<b>Definitive Healthcare</b>(DH) plans to raise $350 million at a $3.3 billion market cap. This company provides a healthcare commercial intelligence and analytics platform, helping its customers to analyze, navigate, and sell into the complex healthcare ecosystem. Unprofitable with strong growth, Definitive Healthcare will be leveraged post-IPO.</p><p><blockquote>医疗智能平台<b>权威医疗保健</b>(DH)计划以33亿美元的市值筹集3.5亿美元。该公司提供医疗保健商业智能和分析平台，帮助其客户分析、导航和销售复杂的医疗保健生态系统。由于增长强劲，Definitive Healthcare尚未盈利，但将在IPO后进行杠杆化。</blockquote></p><p> Identity management platform&nbsp;<b>ForgeRock</b>(FORG) plans to raise $248 million at a $2.1 billion market cap. The company provides identity and access management software, with a platform to provision, authenticate, and govern all types of digital identities. Unprofitable with high sales and marketing expenses, ForgeRock is a leading next-gen provider in the multi-billion-dollar identity and access market.</p><p><blockquote>身份管理平台<b>ForgeRock</b>(FORG)计划以21亿美元的市值筹集2.48亿美元。该公司提供身份和访问管理软件，以及一个提供、认证和管理所有类型数字身份的平台。由于销售和营销费用高昂，ForgeRock无利可图，是价值数十亿美元的身份和访问市场中领先的下一代提供商。</blockquote></p><p> Immunology biotech&nbsp;<b>DICE Therapeutics</b>(DICE) plans to raise $160 million at a $550 million market cap. This biotech is developing oral small molecule therapies to treat chronic diseases in immunology and other therapeutic areas. DICE plans to initiate a Phase 1 trial of its lead candidate S011806, an oral antagonist with a variety of immunology indications.</p><p><blockquote>免疫学生物技术<b>骰子疗法</b>(DICE)计划以5.5亿美元的市值筹集1.6亿美元。这家生物技术公司正在开发口服小分子疗法，以治疗免疫学和其他治疗领域的慢性疾病。DICE计划启动其主要候选药物S011806的1期试验，这是一种具有多种免疫学适应症的口服拮抗剂。</blockquote></p><p> Surgical robotics developer&nbsp;<b>PROCEPT BioRobotics</b>(PRCT) plans to raise $127 million at a $1.1 billion market cap. This commercial-stage company develops surgical robotic systems for minimally-invasive urologic surgery with an initial focus on treating benign prostatic hyperplasia. PROCEPT BioRobotics is highly unprofitable and saw revenue increase more than sixfold in the 1H21.</p><p><blockquote>手术机器人开发商<b>PROCEPT生物机器人</b>(PRCT)计划以11亿美元的市值筹集1.27亿美元。这家商业阶段的公司开发用于微创泌尿外科手术的手术机器人系统，最初的重点是治疗良性前列腺增生。PROCEPT BioRobotics非常无利可图，2021年上半年收入增长了六倍多。</blockquote></p><p> Oncology biotech&nbsp;<b>Tyra Biosciences</b>(TYRA) plans to raise $101 million at a $584 million market cap. This preclinical biotech is developing FGFR kinase inhibitors for cancer, specifically solid tumors. Tyra’s lead candidate is initially focused on bladder cancer, and the company expects to submit an IND for it in mid-2022.</p><p><blockquote>肿瘤生物技术<b>泰拉生物科学公司</b>(TYRA)计划以5.84亿美元的市值筹集1.01亿美元。这家临床前生物技术公司正在开发用于癌症，特别是实体瘤的FGFR激酶抑制剂。Tyra的主要候选药物最初专注于膀胱癌，该公司预计将于2022年中期提交IND。</blockquote></p><p> Micro-cap gas delivery service&nbsp;<b>EzFill Holdings</b>(EZFL) plans to raise $25 million at a $104 million market cap. This mobile-fueling company provides an on-demand fuel delivery service in Florida via mobile app. Highly unprofitable with explosive growth, EzFill states that it is the dominant player in the South Florida market.</p><p><blockquote>微帽气体输送服务<b>埃兹菲尔控股</b>(EZFL)计划以1.04亿美元的市值筹集2500万美元。这家移动加油公司通过移动应用程序在佛罗里达州提供按需加油服务。由于爆炸性增长，EzFill表示，它是南佛罗里达州市场的主导者。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/718698ff98644c4026f32efe91d076c6\" tg-width=\"1128\" tg-height=\"684\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97fe13300d9e4cf61effc59b9706776a\" tg-width=\"1129\" tg-height=\"247\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>IPO Market Snapshot</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IPO市场快照</b></blockquote></p><p> The Renaissance IPO Indices are market cap weighted baskets of newly public companies. As of 9/9/21, the Renaissance IPO Index was up 7.7% year-to-date, while the S&amp;P 500 was up 19.6%. Renaissance Capital's IPO ETF (NYSE: IPO) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Snowflake (SNOW) and Palantir Technologies (PLTR). The Renaissance International IPO Index was down 11.0% year-to-date, while the ACWX was up 10.0%. Renaissance Capital’s International IPO ETF (NYSE: IPOS) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Smoore International and EQT Partners.</p><p><blockquote>文艺复兴IPO指数是新上市公司的市值加权篮子。截至9/9/21，文艺复兴IPO指数今年迄今上涨了7.7%，而标普500上涨了19.6%。Renaissance Capital的IPO ETF（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IPO）跟踪该指数，持有的顶级ETF包括Snowflake（SNOW）和Palantir Technologies（PLTR）。Renaissance International IPO指数今年迄今下跌11.0%，而ACWX指数上涨10.0%。Renaissance Capital的国际IPO ETF（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IPOS）跟踪该指数，持有的顶级ETF包括思摩尔国际和殷拓合伙人。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.renaissancecapital.com/IPO-Center/News/85972/US-IPO-Week-Ahead-The-Fall-IPO-market-kicks-off-with-a-10-IPO-week\">Renaissance Capital</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TWKS":"Thoughtworks Holding Inc.","TYRA":"Tyra Biosciences, Inc.",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","DICE":"DICE Therapeutics, Inc.",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","ONON":"On Holding AG","FORG":"ForgeRock, Inc.","BROS":"Dutch Bros Inc.",".DJI":"道琼斯","DH":"Definitive Healthcare Corp.","SRAD":"Sportradar Group AG","PRCT":"PROCEPT BioRobotics"},"source_url":"https://www.renaissancecapital.com/IPO-Center/News/85972/US-IPO-Week-Ahead-The-Fall-IPO-market-kicks-off-with-a-10-IPO-week","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1189654544","content_text":"After a wave of launches in the short holiday week, 10 IPOs are scheduled to raise over $3 billion in the week ahead.\nTech consultancy Thoughtworks(TWKS) plans to raise $700 million at a $6.3 billion market cap. This agile software developer provides premium, end-to-end digital strategy, design, and engineering services to more than 300 enterprise customers. The company grew revenue at a 14% CAGR from 2017 to 2020, and expanded margins in 2020 and the 1H21.\nSwiss running shoe brand On Holding(ONON) plans to raise $591 million at a $5.9 billion market cap. On is a global provider of premium athletic footwear, apparel, and accessories that are designed using sustainable materials and its proprietary technology. The company has demonstrated growth and profitability, though it faces significant competition from other well-known sportswear brands.\nAfter ending talks to go public via SPAC,Sportradar Group(SRAD) plans to raise $504 million at a $7.9 billion market cap. Covering over 750,000 events annually across 83 sports, this Swiss company provides software, data, and content to sports leagues, betting operators, and media companies. Sportradar is profitable, and growth accelerated in the 1H21 as live sports resumed.\nDrive-thru coffee chain Dutch Bros(BROS) plans to raise $400 million at a $3.3 billion market cap. This Oregon-based company has a chain of 471 drive-thru coffee shops in the Western US, and it has been able to maintain a track record of same-store sales growth as it has expanded to new states. Insiders received pre-IPO dividends and will sell shares back to the company.\nHealthcare intelligence platform Definitive Healthcare(DH) plans to raise $350 million at a $3.3 billion market cap. This company provides a healthcare commercial intelligence and analytics platform, helping its customers to analyze, navigate, and sell into the complex healthcare ecosystem. Unprofitable with strong growth, Definitive Healthcare will be leveraged post-IPO.\nIdentity management platform ForgeRock(FORG) plans to raise $248 million at a $2.1 billion market cap. The company provides identity and access management software, with a platform to provision, authenticate, and govern all types of digital identities. Unprofitable with high sales and marketing expenses, ForgeRock is a leading next-gen provider in the multi-billion-dollar identity and access market.\nImmunology biotech DICE Therapeutics(DICE) plans to raise $160 million at a $550 million market cap. This biotech is developing oral small molecule therapies to treat chronic diseases in immunology and other therapeutic areas. DICE plans to initiate a Phase 1 trial of its lead candidate S011806, an oral antagonist with a variety of immunology indications.\nSurgical robotics developer PROCEPT BioRobotics(PRCT) plans to raise $127 million at a $1.1 billion market cap. This commercial-stage company develops surgical robotic systems for minimally-invasive urologic surgery with an initial focus on treating benign prostatic hyperplasia. PROCEPT BioRobotics is highly unprofitable and saw revenue increase more than sixfold in the 1H21.\nOncology biotech Tyra Biosciences(TYRA) plans to raise $101 million at a $584 million market cap. This preclinical biotech is developing FGFR kinase inhibitors for cancer, specifically solid tumors. Tyra’s lead candidate is initially focused on bladder cancer, and the company expects to submit an IND for it in mid-2022.\nMicro-cap gas delivery service EzFill Holdings(EZFL) plans to raise $25 million at a $104 million market cap. This mobile-fueling company provides an on-demand fuel delivery service in Florida via mobile app. Highly unprofitable with explosive growth, EzFill states that it is the dominant player in the South Florida market.\n\nIPO Market Snapshot\nThe Renaissance IPO Indices are market cap weighted baskets of newly public companies. As of 9/9/21, the Renaissance IPO Index was up 7.7% year-to-date, while the S&P 500 was up 19.6%. Renaissance Capital's IPO ETF (NYSE: IPO) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Snowflake (SNOW) and Palantir Technologies (PLTR). The Renaissance International IPO Index was down 11.0% year-to-date, while the ACWX was up 10.0%. 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