Fuzzyfuzzy的个人主页 - 老虎社区

Fuzzyfuzzy

Fuzzyfuzzy

Lucid Motors fan boy

IP属地：未知

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2021-12-20

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@OptionPlus:期权复盘：圣诞行情或迟不缺，别错过苹果、特斯拉最佳卖权期！

2021-12-03

Cool

Elon Musk continued to sell his Tesla stocks.<blockquote>埃隆·马斯克继续出售他的特斯拉股票。</blockquote>

2021-11-30

Hmm

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2021-11-25

Leave a comment

7 stocks with the most Thanksgiving exposure, according to Bank of America<blockquote>根据美国银行的数据，感恩节风险敞口最大的 7 只股票</blockquote>

2021-11-16

Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee [Happy] [Happy] [Happy]

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2021-11-05

Crazy growth!

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2021-11-04

Hmm

Fisker stock fell 3.5% in premarket trading<blockquote>菲斯克股价在盘前交易中下跌 3.5%</blockquote>

2021-11-01

Lol

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2021-11-01

Cool

Novavax stock surged 14.2% in premarket trading<blockquote>Novavax 股价在盘前交易中飙升 14.2%</blockquote>

2021-10-30

Huh

Opinion:Here's the math for Tesla's stock price if it becomes the Apple of car makers<blockquote>观点：如果特斯拉成为汽车制造商的苹果，特斯拉的股价计算如下</blockquote>

2021-09-19

Okay

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2021-07-29

Not going anywhere until they start selling.

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2021-07-23

Lol

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2021-07-20

Ccommented

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2021-07-12

Commented

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2021-07-09

Lambda variant

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2021-07-04

Leaving a second comment

Robinhood’s IPO Could Be a Sign the Stock Market Has Peaked<blockquote>Robinhood 的 IPO 可能是股市见顶的标志</blockquote>

2021-07-04

Leaving a comment

Tesla Stock Gets No Help From Record Deliveries. Here’s What Wall Street Thinks.<blockquote>特斯拉股票没有从创纪录的交付中得到任何帮助。以下是华尔街的看法。</blockquote>

2021-07-01

Leave a comment, 5 likes

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2021-06-30

Hahshshshaha

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1 comment&nbsp;","listText":"Leave 1 comment&nbsp;","text":"Leave 1 comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/693108540","repostId":"693017474","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":693017474,"gmtCreate":1639927544363,"gmtModify":1639928709633,"author":{"id":"3527667591235607","authorId":"3527667591235607","name":"OptionPlus","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8009c23927adcf8b5e1e1d101178392","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3527667591235607","idStr":"3527667591235607"},"themes":[],"title":"期权复盘：圣诞行情或迟不缺，别错过苹果、特斯拉最佳卖权期！","htmlText":"老虎的朋友们好，最近要赶年底结算工作略忙，每天只有晚上花一点时间看看盘。这两周市场相当精彩，美联储如“期”加速taper，四巫日也如“期”巨震。终于，今年的bad news都陆续落地，接下来圣诞行情还有吗？ 我个人感觉接下来应该有一波还不错的行情，至于多长时间就只能走着看。值得一提的是巴菲特的<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">$伯克希尔(BRK.A)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.B\">$伯克希尔B(BRK.B)$</a> ，股价在周中创了新高。现在Brk的市值跟<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a> 差不多，6500亿美元左右，NVDA是大家眼里一致预期的下一个万亿俱乐部成员，搞不好Berkshire才是，谁知道呢，大可关注起来。我最近关注消费ETF<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XLP\">$消费品指数ETF-SPDR主要消费品(XLP)$</a> ，必须消费品上涨是通胀最直接的反映，自从鲍师傅12月5日直接承认通胀，并暗示可能加速Taper，XLP已经连涨了两周。成分股里面PG、COST、PEP、KO、EL等都过去两周都是逆市新高，短期这个通胀预期已经兑现相当充分，应该要开始回调了。但是通胀也不是一时半会儿能下来的，这几个公司和XLP值得大家明年继续关注，等我过几天开始休假了好好整理一下下消费股。同样是消费ETF，可选消费ETF-XLY就跟必消股ETF-XLP差距非常大，主要原因是AMZN和TSLA两个科技股占比太大，接近40%，如果抛去这两个大成分，下面的HD、MC","listText":"老虎的朋友们好，最近要赶年底结算工作略忙，每天只有晚上花一点时间看看盘。这两周市场相当精彩，美联储如“期”加速taper，四巫日也如“期”巨震。终于，今年的bad news都陆续落地，接下来圣诞行情还有吗？ 我个人感觉接下来应该有一波还不错的行情，至于多长时间就只能走着看。值得一提的是巴菲特的<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">$伯克希尔(BRK.A)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.B\">$伯克希尔B(BRK.B)$</a> ，股价在周中创了新高。现在Brk的市值跟<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a> 差不多，6500亿美元左右，NVDA是大家眼里一致预期的下一个万亿俱乐部成员，搞不好Berkshire才是，谁知道呢，大可关注起来。我最近关注消费ETF<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XLP\">$消费品指数ETF-SPDR主要消费品(XLP)$</a> ，必须消费品上涨是通胀最直接的反映，自从鲍师傅12月5日直接承认通胀，并暗示可能加速Taper，XLP已经连涨了两周。成分股里面PG、COST、PEP、KO、EL等都过去两周都是逆市新高，短期这个通胀预期已经兑现相当充分，应该要开始回调了。但是通胀也不是一时半会儿能下来的，这几个公司和XLP值得大家明年继续关注，等我过几天开始休假了好好整理一下下消费股。同样是消费ETF，可选消费ETF-XLY就跟必消股ETF-XLP差距非常大，主要原因是AMZN和TSLA两个科技股占比太大，接近40%，如果抛去这两个大成分，下面的HD、MC","text":"老虎的朋友们好，最近要赶年底结算工作略忙，每天只有晚上花一点时间看看盘。这两周市场相当精彩，美联储如“期”加速taper，四巫日也如“期”巨震。终于，今年的bad news都陆续落地，接下来圣诞行情还有吗？ 我个人感觉接下来应该有一波还不错的行情，至于多长时间就只能走着看。值得一提的是巴菲特的$伯克希尔(BRK.A)$ $伯克希尔B(BRK.B)$ ，股价在周中创了新高。现在Brk的市值跟$英伟达(NVDA)$ 差不多，6500亿美元左右，NVDA是大家眼里一致预期的下一个万亿俱乐部成员，搞不好Berkshire才是，谁知道呢，大可关注起来。我最近关注消费ETF$消费品指数ETF-SPDR主要消费品(XLP)$ 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0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nElon Musk continued to sell his Tesla stocks.<blockquote>埃隆·马斯克继续出售他的特斯拉股票。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-12-03 10:49</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Elon Musk continued to sell his Tesla&nbsp;stocks.</p><p><blockquote>埃隆·马斯克继续出售他的特斯拉股票。</blockquote></p><p> Musk sold 934,091&nbsp;Tesla&nbsp;shares on December 2 with a total value of US$1.01 billion.</p><p><blockquote>马斯克于12月2日出售了934,091股特斯拉股票，总价值10.1亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187151018","content_text":"Elon Musk continued to sell his Tesla stocks.\nMusk sold 934,091 Tesla shares on December 2 with a total value of US$1.01 billion.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2883,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":609947142,"gmtCreate":1638234970508,"gmtModify":1638234970680,"author":{"id":"3576849200483737","authorId":"3576849200483737","name":"Fuzzyfuzzy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83fbe5cf3fa66c4ec89abe62d2856950","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576849200483737","idStr":"3576849200483737"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hmm","listText":"Hmm","text":"Hmm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/609947142","repostId":"1102034324","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3732,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":877905625,"gmtCreate":1637853433543,"gmtModify":1637853433543,"author":{"id":"3576849200483737","authorId":"3576849200483737","name":"Fuzzyfuzzy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83fbe5cf3fa66c4ec89abe62d2856950","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576849200483737","idStr":"3576849200483737"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Leave a comment","listText":"Leave a comment","text":"Leave a comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/877905625","repostId":"1122037796","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122037796","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1637849010,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1122037796?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-25 22:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"7 stocks with the most Thanksgiving exposure, according to Bank of America<blockquote>根据美国银行的数据，感恩节风险敞口最大的 7 只股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122037796","media":"finance.yahoo","summary":"Thanksgiving feasts will likely draw larger crowds than last year and incur higher costs.\nA recent B","content":"<p>Thanksgiving feasts will likely draw larger crowds than last year and&nbsp;incur higher costs.</p><p><blockquote>感恩节盛宴可能会吸引比去年更多的人群，并产生更高的成本。</blockquote></p><p> A recent Bank of America note detailed which companies have the most exposure to the top holiday dishes amid supply chain bottlenecks, inflation, lingering COVID concerns, low inventories, and evolving consumer behaviors.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行最近的一份报告详细介绍了在供应链瓶颈、通货膨胀、挥之不去的新冠疫情担忧、低库存和不断变化的消费者行为的情况下，哪些公司最有可能接触到顶级节日菜肴。</blockquote></p><p> Those companies are Campbell's Soup Company (CPB), General Mills (GIS), The Kraft Heinz Company (KHC), Conagra Brands (CAG), Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL), McCormick &amp; Company (MKC), and The Duckhorn Portfolio, Inc. (NAPA).</p><p><blockquote>这些公司是金宝汤公司 (CPB)、通用磨坊 (GIS)、卡夫亨氏公司 (KHC)、康尼格拉品牌 (CAG)、荷美尔食品公司 (HRL)、麦考密克公司 (MKC) 和鸭角投资组合公司 (NAPA)。</blockquote></p><p> \"We looked at companies’ exposure to the top Thanksgiving dishes: turkey, stuffing, dinner rolls, gravy, green bean casserole, potatoes, mac &amp; cheese dessert and wine,\" the analysts stated. \"Overall CPB, GIS, KHC, CAG, MKC, HRL and NAPA are the most exposed. KHC and NAPA are our favorite stocks in this group.\"</p><p><blockquote>“分析师们说：”我们调查了各公司对感恩节顶级菜肴的接触情况： 火鸡、馅料、晚餐卷、肉汁、四季豆砂锅、土豆、通心粉和奶酪甜点和葡萄酒。“总体而言，CPB、GIS、KHC、CAG、MKC、HRL 和 NAPA 是暴露最多的。KHC 和 NAPA 是我们在该组中最喜欢的股票。”</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39aa902f366c0bd07e076520c33cdf52\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"409\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Key companies exposed to Thanksgiving meal trends. (Source: BofA)Thanksgiving 'center of the plate' items see more pricing power</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>暴露于感恩节大餐趋势的主要公司。（资料来源：美国银行）感恩节“盘子中心”项目看到更多定价权</span></p></blockquote></p><p> People appear to be gathering around the table again, the analysts stated, as data from social media conversations found mentions of \"vaccines\" on the rise while mentions of \"FaceTime,\" \"social distancing,\" and \"canceled\" declined. (\"Friendsgiving\" and \"day drinking\" also saw increases.)</p><p><blockquote>分析师表示，人们似乎再次聚集在桌子周围，因为社交媒体对话的数据发现，提及“疫苗”的人数有所增加，而提及“FaceTime”、“社交距离”和“取消”的人数有所下降。（“朋友聚会”和“白天喝酒”也有所增加。）</blockquote></p><p> And whether consumers opt for turkey or ham, mashed potatoes or marshmallow-topped sweet potatoes, traditional orplant-based options, they're likely to pay more with inflation hitting food prices.</p><p><blockquote>无论消费者选择火鸡还是火腿、土豆泥还是棉花糖甘薯，传统的还是基于植物的选择，他们都可能在通货膨胀冲击食品价格的情况下支付更多费用。</blockquote></p><p> The&nbsp;American Farm Bureau Thanksgiving cost index&nbsp;projects a 14% year-over-year increase for 2021, led by a 24% increase in turkey prices.</p><p><blockquote>美国农业局感恩节成本指数预计2021年将同比增长14%，其中火鸡价格上涨24%。</blockquote></p><p> “When you look at more of the center of the plate sort of food items, typically, there has not historically been a lot of pricing power,” Bryan Spillane, a senior food and beverage analyst at BofA Global Research, told Yahoo Finance Live (video above). “But what's unusual this year is that there has been. Food companies, in particular, began raising prices the middle of the year, and there's virtually been no elasticity.”</p><p><blockquote>“美国银行全球研究部（BofA Global Research）高级食品和饮料分析师布莱恩-斯皮兰（Bryan Spillane）告诉雅虎财经直播（上图视频）：”通常情况下，当你看到更多的盘子中央类型的食品时，历史上并没有太大的定价权。“但今年不同寻常的是，出现了这种情况。尤其是食品公司，在年中就开始提价，而且几乎没有弹性。”</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e60ff60917eb4db45a68c41bd19a337\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"529\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Frozen turkeys in Philadelphia, Wednesday, Nov. 17, 2021. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2021年11月17日，星期三，费城的冷冻火鸡。（美联社照片/马特·洛克）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> That said, Spillane added, consumer behavior is expected to change at some point.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，斯皮兰补充说，消费者行为预计会在某个时候发生变化。</blockquote></p><p> “Something that we're really watching as we move into next year is: At what point does the consumer begin to push back and do we begin to see some trading down or other behavior that demonstrates that consumers are feeling that pinch?” Spillane said.</p><p><blockquote>“进入明年，我们真正关注的是：消费者在什么时候开始反击，我们是否开始看到一些降价或其他行为，表明消费者感受到了这种压力？”斯皮兰说。</blockquote></p><p> Investor appetite for food and beverage companies</p><p><blockquote>投资者对食品饮料公司的胃口</blockquote></p><p> The top company with the most upside or downside potential is Campbell's, which BofA gave an \"underperform\" rating.</p><p><blockquote>最具上行或下行潜力的顶级公司是金宝公司，美国银行给予其“跑输大盘”评级。</blockquote></p><p> “Campbell's struggling from a few issues,” Spillane said. “One is they are experiencing a material amount of inflation. They have a product portfolio that's a little bit more skewed… to kind of middle and low-income households. So, that's, maybe, an area where there may be some sensitivity around passing those prices through.”</p><p><blockquote>“斯皮兰说：”坎贝尔在几个问题上苦苦挣扎。“一是他们正在经历大量的通货膨胀。他们的产品组合有点偏向.中低收入家庭。因此，这可能是一个在传递这些价格方面存在一些敏感性的领域”。</blockquote></p><p> The iconic soup company also has a lot of direct and indirect exposure to labor shortages and higher labor costs, Spillane added.</p><p><blockquote>斯皮兰补充说，这家标志性的汤品公司也直接和间接地面临着劳动力短缺和劳动力成本上升的问题。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be1718627f49a5fcc29f52e9e322313f\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Cans of Campbell's Soup are displayed in a supermarket in New York City, U.S. February 15, 2017. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2017年2月15日，美国纽约市一家超市里陈列着罐装金宝汤。路透社/布伦丹·麦克德米德</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BofA also gave seasoning-maker McCormick &amp; Company an \"underperform\" rating, with an $84 price target.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行还给予调味品制造商麦考密克公司“跑输大盘”评级，目标价为 84 美元。</blockquote></p><p> McCormick is “still trading at a premium valuation,” Spillane said, adding that while it has benefitted from people having cooked at home more in the last 18 months, “at some point, as things moderate, you're going to see less of that cooking at home behavior. And that's going to create an overhang for McCormick.”</p><p><blockquote>斯皮兰说，麦考密克 “仍在以溢价进行交易”，他补充说，虽然在过去的 18 个月里，人们在家做饭的次数增加了，但 “在某个时候，随着情况的缓和，你会看到更少的在家做饭的行为。这将给麦考密克带来悬念”。</blockquote></p><p> On the flip side, “Hershey [HSY] is well-positioned,” Spillane said, especially when it comes to the inflationary environment.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，“好时 [HSY] 处于有利地位，”斯皮兰说，尤其是在通胀环境下。</blockquote></p><p> “The combination of a category that's still growing very strongly where there's still a lot of product innovation and where there's been demonstrated pricing power, we think that Hershey is set up really well to be able to maybe even more than protect margins, maybe potentially grow margins as we cycle through some of this inflation,” he explained.</p><p><blockquote>“他解释说：”好时是一个仍在强劲增长的品类，仍然有很多产品创新，而且定价权也得到了证明，我们认为好时已经做好了充分准备，也许不仅仅是保护利润率，也许还能在我们经历一些通货膨胀的过程中提高利润率。</blockquote></p><p> BofA also awarded Stove Top stuffing-maker Kraft Heinz a buy rating with a $46 price objective.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行还给予炉顶填料制造商卡夫亨氏买入评级，目标价为 46 美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “We believe this is justified based our view that KHC is well positioned to capture growth associated with changing consumer demand patterns related to recessions and pantry stocking offset by higher than average debt levels,” the analysts wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“分析师写道：”我们认为这是合理的，因为我们认为，KHC 已做好充分准备，可以抓住与经济衰退和食品储藏室库存相关的不断变化的消费者需求模式，而高于平均水平的债务水平抵消了这些变化。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>7 stocks with the most Thanksgiving exposure, according to Bank of America<blockquote>根据美国银行的数据，感恩节风险敞口最大的 7 只股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n7 stocks with the most Thanksgiving exposure, according to Bank of America<blockquote>根据美国银行的数据，感恩节风险敞口最大的 7 只股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">finance.yahoo</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-25 22:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Thanksgiving feasts will likely draw larger crowds than last year and&nbsp;incur higher costs.</p><p><blockquote>感恩节盛宴可能会吸引比去年更多的人群，并产生更高的成本。</blockquote></p><p> A recent Bank of America note detailed which companies have the most exposure to the top holiday dishes amid supply chain bottlenecks, inflation, lingering COVID concerns, low inventories, and evolving consumer behaviors.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行最近的一份报告详细介绍了在供应链瓶颈、通货膨胀、挥之不去的新冠疫情担忧、低库存和不断变化的消费者行为的情况下，哪些公司最有可能接触到顶级节日菜肴。</blockquote></p><p> Those companies are Campbell's Soup Company (CPB), General Mills (GIS), The Kraft Heinz Company (KHC), Conagra Brands (CAG), Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL), McCormick &amp; Company (MKC), and The Duckhorn Portfolio, Inc. (NAPA).</p><p><blockquote>这些公司是金宝汤公司 (CPB)、通用磨坊 (GIS)、卡夫亨氏公司 (KHC)、康尼格拉品牌 (CAG)、荷美尔食品公司 (HRL)、麦考密克公司 (MKC) 和鸭角投资组合公司 (NAPA)。</blockquote></p><p> \"We looked at companies’ exposure to the top Thanksgiving dishes: turkey, stuffing, dinner rolls, gravy, green bean casserole, potatoes, mac &amp; cheese dessert and wine,\" the analysts stated. \"Overall CPB, GIS, KHC, CAG, MKC, HRL and NAPA are the most exposed. KHC and NAPA are our favorite stocks in this group.\"</p><p><blockquote>“分析师们说：”我们调查了各公司对感恩节顶级菜肴的接触情况： 火鸡、馅料、晚餐卷、肉汁、四季豆砂锅、土豆、通心粉和奶酪甜点和葡萄酒。“总体而言，CPB、GIS、KHC、CAG、MKC、HRL 和 NAPA 是暴露最多的。KHC 和 NAPA 是我们在该组中最喜欢的股票。”</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39aa902f366c0bd07e076520c33cdf52\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"409\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Key companies exposed to Thanksgiving meal trends. (Source: BofA)Thanksgiving 'center of the plate' items see more pricing power</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>暴露于感恩节大餐趋势的主要公司。（资料来源：美国银行）感恩节“盘子中心”项目看到更多定价权</span></p></blockquote></p><p> People appear to be gathering around the table again, the analysts stated, as data from social media conversations found mentions of \"vaccines\" on the rise while mentions of \"FaceTime,\" \"social distancing,\" and \"canceled\" declined. (\"Friendsgiving\" and \"day drinking\" also saw increases.)</p><p><blockquote>分析师表示，人们似乎再次聚集在桌子周围，因为社交媒体对话的数据发现，提及“疫苗”的人数有所增加，而提及“FaceTime”、“社交距离”和“取消”的人数有所下降。（“朋友聚会”和“白天喝酒”也有所增加。）</blockquote></p><p> And whether consumers opt for turkey or ham, mashed potatoes or marshmallow-topped sweet potatoes, traditional orplant-based options, they're likely to pay more with inflation hitting food prices.</p><p><blockquote>无论消费者选择火鸡还是火腿、土豆泥还是棉花糖甘薯，传统的还是基于植物的选择，他们都可能在通货膨胀冲击食品价格的情况下支付更多费用。</blockquote></p><p> The&nbsp;American Farm Bureau Thanksgiving cost index&nbsp;projects a 14% year-over-year increase for 2021, led by a 24% increase in turkey prices.</p><p><blockquote>美国农业局感恩节成本指数预计2021年将同比增长14%，其中火鸡价格上涨24%。</blockquote></p><p> “When you look at more of the center of the plate sort of food items, typically, there has not historically been a lot of pricing power,” Bryan Spillane, a senior food and beverage analyst at BofA Global Research, told Yahoo Finance Live (video above). “But what's unusual this year is that there has been. Food companies, in particular, began raising prices the middle of the year, and there's virtually been no elasticity.”</p><p><blockquote>“美国银行全球研究部（BofA Global Research）高级食品和饮料分析师布莱恩-斯皮兰（Bryan Spillane）告诉雅虎财经直播（上图视频）：”通常情况下，当你看到更多的盘子中央类型的食品时，历史上并没有太大的定价权。“但今年不同寻常的是，出现了这种情况。尤其是食品公司，在年中就开始提价，而且几乎没有弹性。”</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e60ff60917eb4db45a68c41bd19a337\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"529\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Frozen turkeys in Philadelphia, Wednesday, Nov. 17, 2021. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2021年11月17日，星期三，费城的冷冻火鸡。（美联社照片/马特·洛克）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> That said, Spillane added, consumer behavior is expected to change at some point.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，斯皮兰补充说，消费者行为预计会在某个时候发生变化。</blockquote></p><p> “Something that we're really watching as we move into next year is: At what point does the consumer begin to push back and do we begin to see some trading down or other behavior that demonstrates that consumers are feeling that pinch?” Spillane said.</p><p><blockquote>“进入明年，我们真正关注的是：消费者在什么时候开始反击，我们是否开始看到一些降价或其他行为，表明消费者感受到了这种压力？”斯皮兰说。</blockquote></p><p> Investor appetite for food and beverage companies</p><p><blockquote>投资者对食品饮料公司的胃口</blockquote></p><p> The top company with the most upside or downside potential is Campbell's, which BofA gave an \"underperform\" rating.</p><p><blockquote>最具上行或下行潜力的顶级公司是金宝公司，美国银行给予其“跑输大盘”评级。</blockquote></p><p> “Campbell's struggling from a few issues,” Spillane said. “One is they are experiencing a material amount of inflation. They have a product portfolio that's a little bit more skewed… to kind of middle and low-income households. So, that's, maybe, an area where there may be some sensitivity around passing those prices through.”</p><p><blockquote>“斯皮兰说：”坎贝尔在几个问题上苦苦挣扎。“一是他们正在经历大量的通货膨胀。他们的产品组合有点偏向.中低收入家庭。因此，这可能是一个在传递这些价格方面存在一些敏感性的领域”。</blockquote></p><p> The iconic soup company also has a lot of direct and indirect exposure to labor shortages and higher labor costs, Spillane added.</p><p><blockquote>斯皮兰补充说，这家标志性的汤品公司也直接和间接地面临着劳动力短缺和劳动力成本上升的问题。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be1718627f49a5fcc29f52e9e322313f\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Cans of Campbell's Soup are displayed in a supermarket in New York City, U.S. February 15, 2017. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2017年2月15日，美国纽约市一家超市里陈列着罐装金宝汤。路透社/布伦丹·麦克德米德</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BofA also gave seasoning-maker McCormick &amp; Company an \"underperform\" rating, with an $84 price target.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行还给予调味品制造商麦考密克公司“跑输大盘”评级，目标价为 84 美元。</blockquote></p><p> McCormick is “still trading at a premium valuation,” Spillane said, adding that while it has benefitted from people having cooked at home more in the last 18 months, “at some point, as things moderate, you're going to see less of that cooking at home behavior. And that's going to create an overhang for McCormick.”</p><p><blockquote>斯皮兰说，麦考密克 “仍在以溢价进行交易”，他补充说，虽然在过去的 18 个月里，人们在家做饭的次数增加了，但 “在某个时候，随着情况的缓和，你会看到更少的在家做饭的行为。这将给麦考密克带来悬念”。</blockquote></p><p> On the flip side, “Hershey [HSY] is well-positioned,” Spillane said, especially when it comes to the inflationary environment.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，“好时 [HSY] 处于有利地位，”斯皮兰说，尤其是在通胀环境下。</blockquote></p><p> “The combination of a category that's still growing very strongly where there's still a lot of product innovation and where there's been demonstrated pricing power, we think that Hershey is set up really well to be able to maybe even more than protect margins, maybe potentially grow margins as we cycle through some of this inflation,” he explained.</p><p><blockquote>“他解释说：”好时是一个仍在强劲增长的品类，仍然有很多产品创新，而且定价权也得到了证明，我们认为好时已经做好了充分准备，也许不仅仅是保护利润率，也许还能在我们经历一些通货膨胀的过程中提高利润率。</blockquote></p><p> BofA also awarded Stove Top stuffing-maker Kraft Heinz a buy rating with a $46 price objective.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行还给予炉顶填料制造商卡夫亨氏买入评级，目标价为 46 美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “We believe this is justified based our view that KHC is well positioned to capture growth associated with changing consumer demand patterns related to recessions and pantry stocking offset by higher than average debt levels,” the analysts wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“分析师写道：”我们认为这是合理的，因为我们认为，KHC 已做好充分准备，可以抓住与经济衰退和食品储藏室库存相关的不断变化的消费者需求模式，而高于平均水平的债务水平抵消了这些变化。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/7-stocks-thanksgiving-exposure-bank-of-america-134505457.html\">finance.yahoo</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CAG":"康尼格拉","CPB":"金宝汤","GIS":"通用磨坊","MKC":"味好美","KHC":"卡夫亨氏","HRL":"荷美尔"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/7-stocks-thanksgiving-exposure-bank-of-america-134505457.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122037796","content_text":"Thanksgiving feasts will likely draw larger crowds than last year and incur higher costs.\nA recent Bank of America note detailed which companies have the most exposure to the top holiday dishes amid supply chain bottlenecks, inflation, lingering COVID concerns, low inventories, and evolving consumer behaviors.\nThose companies are Campbell's Soup Company (CPB), General Mills (GIS), The Kraft Heinz Company (KHC), Conagra Brands (CAG), Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL), McCormick & Company (MKC), and The Duckhorn Portfolio, Inc. (NAPA).\n\"We looked at companies’ exposure to the top Thanksgiving dishes: turkey, stuffing, dinner rolls, gravy, green bean casserole, potatoes, mac & cheese dessert and wine,\" the analysts stated. \"Overall CPB, GIS, KHC, CAG, MKC, HRL and NAPA are the most exposed. KHC and NAPA are our favorite stocks in this group.\"\nKey companies exposed to Thanksgiving meal trends. (Source: BofA)Thanksgiving 'center of the plate' items see more pricing power\nPeople appear to be gathering around the table again, the analysts stated, as data from social media conversations found mentions of \"vaccines\" on the rise while mentions of \"FaceTime,\" \"social distancing,\" and \"canceled\" declined. (\"Friendsgiving\" and \"day drinking\" also saw increases.)\nAnd whether consumers opt for turkey or ham, mashed potatoes or marshmallow-topped sweet potatoes, traditional orplant-based options, they're likely to pay more with inflation hitting food prices.\nThe American Farm Bureau Thanksgiving cost index projects a 14% year-over-year increase for 2021, led by a 24% increase in turkey prices.\n“When you look at more of the center of the plate sort of food items, typically, there has not historically been a lot of pricing power,” Bryan Spillane, a senior food and beverage analyst at BofA Global Research, told Yahoo Finance Live (video above). “But what's unusual this year is that there has been. Food companies, in particular, began raising prices the middle of the year, and there's virtually been no elasticity.”\nFrozen turkeys in Philadelphia, Wednesday, Nov. 17, 2021. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke)\nThat said, Spillane added, consumer behavior is expected to change at some point.\n“Something that we're really watching as we move into next year is: At what point does the consumer begin to push back and do we begin to see some trading down or other behavior that demonstrates that consumers are feeling that pinch?” Spillane said.\nInvestor appetite for food and beverage companies\nThe top company with the most upside or downside potential is Campbell's, which BofA gave an \"underperform\" rating.\n“Campbell's struggling from a few issues,” Spillane said. “One is they are experiencing a material amount of inflation. They have a product portfolio that's a little bit more skewed… to kind of middle and low-income households. So, that's, maybe, an area where there may be some sensitivity around passing those prices through.”\nThe iconic soup company also has a lot of direct and indirect exposure to labor shortages and higher labor costs, Spillane added.\nCans of Campbell's Soup are displayed in a supermarket in New York City, U.S. February 15, 2017. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid\nBofA also gave seasoning-maker McCormick & Company an \"underperform\" rating, with an $84 price target.\nMcCormick is “still trading at a premium valuation,” Spillane said, adding that while it has benefitted from people having cooked at home more in the last 18 months, “at some point, as things moderate, you're going to see less of that cooking at home behavior. And that's going to create an overhang for McCormick.”\nOn the flip side, “Hershey [HSY] is well-positioned,” Spillane said, especially when it comes to the inflationary environment.\n“The combination of a category that's still growing very strongly where there's still a lot of product innovation and where there's been demonstrated pricing power, we think that Hershey is set up really well to be able to maybe even more than protect margins, maybe potentially grow margins as we cycle through some of this inflation,” he explained.\nBofA also awarded Stove Top stuffing-maker Kraft Heinz a buy rating with a $46 price objective.\n“We believe this is justified based our view that KHC is well positioned to capture growth associated with changing consumer demand patterns related to recessions and pantry stocking offset by higher than average debt levels,” the analysts wrote.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HRL":0.9,"CAG":0.9,"CPB":0.9,"KHC":0.9,"MKC":0.9,"GIS":0.9,"NAPA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5092,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":871967278,"gmtCreate":1637020390559,"gmtModify":1637020390672,"author":{"id":"3576849200483737","authorId":"3576849200483737","name":"Fuzzyfuzzy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83fbe5cf3fa66c4ec89abe62d2856950","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576849200483737","idStr":"3576849200483737"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee [Happy]&nbsp;[Happy]&nbsp;[Happy]&nbsp;","listText":"Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee [Happy]&nbsp;[Happy]&nbsp;[Happy]&nbsp;","text":"Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee [Happy] [Happy] [Happy]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/871967278","repostId":"2183907418","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3174,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":846251208,"gmtCreate":1636088798130,"gmtModify":1636088850582,"author":{"id":"3576849200483737","authorId":"3576849200483737","name":"Fuzzyfuzzy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83fbe5cf3fa66c4ec89abe62d2856950","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576849200483737","idStr":"3576849200483737"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Crazy growth!&nbsp;","listText":"Crazy growth!&nbsp;","text":"Crazy growth!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/846251208","repostId":"2181718794","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2764,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":848784068,"gmtCreate":1636030032787,"gmtModify":1636030038007,"author":{"id":"3576849200483737","authorId":"3576849200483737","name":"Fuzzyfuzzy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83fbe5cf3fa66c4ec89abe62d2856950","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576849200483737","idStr":"3576849200483737"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hmm","listText":"Hmm","text":"Hmm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/848784068","repostId":"1120138566","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1120138566","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1636028771,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1120138566?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-04 20:26","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Fisker stock fell 3.5% in premarket trading<blockquote>菲斯克股价在盘前交易中下跌 3.5%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120138566","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Fisker stock fell 3.5% in premarket trading as its earnings revealed a large-than-expected Loss.\n\n\nF","content":"<p>Fisker stock fell 3.5% in premarket trading&nbsp;as&nbsp;its earnings revealed a large-than-expected Loss.</p><p><blockquote>菲斯克股价在盘前交易中下跌 3.5%，原因是其财报显示亏损超出预期。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc2cd304ce367ba60b0c95c0f7c84f9d\" tg-width=\"849\" tg-height=\"617\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Fisker&nbsp;stock is falling after reporting disappointing third-quarter earnings. The earnings, however, don’t really matter. The company doesn’t have sales yet so investors should pay attention to milestones and Fisker hit a big one recently. </p><p><blockquote>菲斯克股价在公布令人失望的第三季度收益后下跌。然而，收益并不重要。该公司目前还没有销售业绩，因此投资者应关注里程碑，菲斯克最近实现了一个重要的里程碑。</blockquote></p><p> Fisker reported a 37 cents per-share loss on no sales Wednesday evening, while analysts were looking for a 34 cent loss. Earnings don’t tell us much, however. Fisker is still developing its all electric-SUV dubbed Ocean. Production is expected to start in November 2022, and Ocean reservations hit 18,600 as of Nov. 2, up from about 17,500 in early August.</p><p><blockquote>菲斯克周三晚间报告称，由于没有销售，每股亏损 37 美分，而分析师预计亏损 34 美分。然而，收益并不能告诉我们太多。菲斯克仍在开发名为 Ocean 的全电动 SUV。预计将于 2022 年 11 月开始生产，截至 11 月 2 日，海洋预订量达到 18,600 艘，高于 8 月初的约 17,500 艘。</blockquote></p><p> “The critical sourcing phase for Fisker Ocean is now largely complete,” said CEO Henrik Fisker in the company’s news release. Just before earnings, his company announced a battery supply deal with China’s Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd (300750.China), which is better known as CATL. CATL is the world’s largest EV battery maker. The deal is for 5 gigawatt-hours of annual battery capacity, which is enough for roughly 50,000 EVs a year.</p><p><blockquote>“菲斯克海洋公司首席执行官亨里克-菲斯克（Henrik Fisker）在公司新闻稿中说：”菲斯克海洋公司的关键采购阶段现已基本完成。就在财报发布前，他的公司宣布与中国宁德时代新能源科技股份有限公司（300750.China）达成电池供应协议，该公司更广为人知的名称是宁德时代。宁德时代是全球最大的电动汽车电池制造商。该协议的年电池容量为 5 吉瓦时，足以满足每年大约 50,000 辆电动汽车的需求。</blockquote></p><p> Fisker will use a cheaper lithium iron phosphate cathode battery for shorter-range vehicles and a lithium manganese cobalt cathode battery for its longer-range vehicles. Using different cathode chemistries is a common strategy for EV makers looking to optimize range, cost and materials availability.</p><p><blockquote>菲斯克将为短程车辆使用更便宜的磷酸铁锂阴极电池，为长程车辆使用锂锰钴阴极电池。对于寻求优化续航里程、成本和材料可用性的电动汽车制造商来说，使用不同的阴极化学物质是一种常见策略。</blockquote></p><p> Fisker stock has been volatile in 2021 as investors wait for production to start. Coming into Thursday, shares were up about 22% over the past three months. but the stock is down 43% from its March 52-week high of almost $32.</p><p><blockquote>由于投资者等待生产开始，菲斯克股价在 2021 年一直波动较大。截至周四，该股在过去三个月中上涨了约 22%。但该股较 3 月份近 32 美元的 52 周高点下跌了 43%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fisker stock fell 3.5% in premarket trading<blockquote>菲斯克股价在盘前交易中下跌 3.5%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFisker stock fell 3.5% in premarket trading<blockquote>菲斯克股价在盘前交易中下跌 3.5%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-11-04 20:26</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Fisker stock fell 3.5% in premarket trading&nbsp;as&nbsp;its earnings revealed a large-than-expected Loss.</p><p><blockquote>菲斯克股价在盘前交易中下跌 3.5%，原因是其财报显示亏损超出预期。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc2cd304ce367ba60b0c95c0f7c84f9d\" tg-width=\"849\" tg-height=\"617\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Fisker&nbsp;stock is falling after reporting disappointing third-quarter earnings. The earnings, however, don’t really matter. The company doesn’t have sales yet so investors should pay attention to milestones and Fisker hit a big one recently. </p><p><blockquote>菲斯克股价在公布令人失望的第三季度收益后下跌。然而，收益并不重要。该公司目前还没有销售业绩，因此投资者应关注里程碑，菲斯克最近实现了一个重要的里程碑。</blockquote></p><p> Fisker reported a 37 cents per-share loss on no sales Wednesday evening, while analysts were looking for a 34 cent loss. Earnings don’t tell us much, however. Fisker is still developing its all electric-SUV dubbed Ocean. Production is expected to start in November 2022, and Ocean reservations hit 18,600 as of Nov. 2, up from about 17,500 in early August.</p><p><blockquote>菲斯克周三晚间报告称，由于没有销售，每股亏损 37 美分，而分析师预计亏损 34 美分。然而，收益并不能告诉我们太多。菲斯克仍在开发名为 Ocean 的全电动 SUV。预计将于 2022 年 11 月开始生产，截至 11 月 2 日，海洋预订量达到 18,600 艘，高于 8 月初的约 17,500 艘。</blockquote></p><p> “The critical sourcing phase for Fisker Ocean is now largely complete,” said CEO Henrik Fisker in the company’s news release. Just before earnings, his company announced a battery supply deal with China’s Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd (300750.China), which is better known as CATL. CATL is the world’s largest EV battery maker. The deal is for 5 gigawatt-hours of annual battery capacity, which is enough for roughly 50,000 EVs a year.</p><p><blockquote>“菲斯克海洋公司首席执行官亨里克-菲斯克（Henrik Fisker）在公司新闻稿中说：”菲斯克海洋公司的关键采购阶段现已基本完成。就在财报发布前，他的公司宣布与中国宁德时代新能源科技股份有限公司（300750.China）达成电池供应协议，该公司更广为人知的名称是宁德时代。宁德时代是全球最大的电动汽车电池制造商。该协议的年电池容量为 5 吉瓦时，足以满足每年大约 50,000 辆电动汽车的需求。</blockquote></p><p> Fisker will use a cheaper lithium iron phosphate cathode battery for shorter-range vehicles and a lithium manganese cobalt cathode battery for its longer-range vehicles. Using different cathode chemistries is a common strategy for EV makers looking to optimize range, cost and materials availability.</p><p><blockquote>菲斯克将为短程车辆使用更便宜的磷酸铁锂阴极电池，为长程车辆使用锂锰钴阴极电池。对于寻求优化续航里程、成本和材料可用性的电动汽车制造商来说，使用不同的阴极化学物质是一种常见策略。</blockquote></p><p> Fisker stock has been volatile in 2021 as investors wait for production to start. Coming into Thursday, shares were up about 22% over the past three months. but the stock is down 43% from its March 52-week high of almost $32.</p><p><blockquote>由于投资者等待生产开始，菲斯克股价在 2021 年一直波动较大。截至周四，该股在过去三个月中上涨了约 22%。但该股较 3 月份近 32 美元的 52 周高点下跌了 43%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"FSR":"菲斯克"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120138566","content_text":"Fisker stock fell 3.5% in premarket trading as its earnings revealed a large-than-expected Loss.\n\n\nFisker stock is falling after reporting disappointing third-quarter earnings. The earnings, however, don’t really matter. The company doesn’t have sales yet so investors should pay attention to milestones and Fisker hit a big one recently. \n\nFisker reported a 37 cents per-share loss on no sales Wednesday evening, while analysts were looking for a 34 cent loss. Earnings don’t tell us much, however. Fisker is still developing its all electric-SUV dubbed Ocean. Production is expected to start in November 2022, and Ocean reservations hit 18,600 as of Nov. 2, up from about 17,500 in early August.\n“The critical sourcing phase for Fisker Ocean is now largely complete,” said CEO Henrik Fisker in the company’s news release. Just before earnings, his company announced a battery supply deal with China’s Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd (300750.China), which is better known as CATL. CATL is the world’s largest EV battery maker. The deal is for 5 gigawatt-hours of annual battery capacity, which is enough for roughly 50,000 EVs a year.\nFisker will use a cheaper lithium iron phosphate cathode battery for shorter-range vehicles and a lithium manganese cobalt cathode battery for its longer-range vehicles. Using different cathode chemistries is a common strategy for EV makers looking to optimize range, cost and materials availability.\nFisker stock has been volatile in 2021 as investors wait for production to start. Coming into Thursday, shares were up about 22% over the past three months. but the stock is down 43% from its March 52-week high of almost $32.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"FSR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3338,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":849583451,"gmtCreate":1635766634833,"gmtModify":1635766634886,"author":{"id":"3576849200483737","authorId":"3576849200483737","name":"Fuzzyfuzzy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83fbe5cf3fa66c4ec89abe62d2856950","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576849200483737","idStr":"3576849200483737"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Lol","listText":"Lol","text":"Lol","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/849583451","repostId":"1134157130","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2948,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":849583661,"gmtCreate":1635766621271,"gmtModify":1635766621271,"author":{"id":"3576849200483737","authorId":"3576849200483737","name":"Fuzzyfuzzy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83fbe5cf3fa66c4ec89abe62d2856950","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576849200483737","idStr":"3576849200483737"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Cool","listText":"Cool","text":"Cool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/849583661","repostId":"1118499473","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1118499473","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1635764611,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1118499473?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-01 19:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Novavax stock surged 14.2% in premarket trading<blockquote>Novavax 股价在盘前交易中飙升 14.2%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1118499473","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Biotechnology company Novavax stock surged 14.2% in premarket trading after filing for authorization","content":"<p>Biotechnology company Novavax stock surged 14.2% in premarket trading&nbsp;after filing for authorization of its COVID-19 vaccine in multiple countries and regions.</p><p><blockquote>生物技术公司 Novavax 的 COVID-19 疫苗在多个国家和地区申请授权后，其股价在盘前交易中飙升 14.2%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f507bc8048dfc7207968fa1251226ef\" tg-width=\"849\" tg-height=\"618\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Novavax,&nbsp;Inc.&nbsp;today announced the completion of its rolling submission to Health Canada for authorization of its COVID-19 vaccine candidate, the first filing of a protein-based COVID-19 vaccine inCanada. In addition, the company has completed the submission of all data and modules to the European Medicines Agency (EMA) to support the final regulatory review of its dossier.</p><p><blockquote>Novavax，Inc.今天宣布完成向加拿大卫生部提交新冠肺炎候选疫苗授权的滚动提交，这是加拿大首次提交基于蛋白质的新冠肺炎疫苗。此外，该公司已完成向欧洲药品管理局（EMA）提交所有数据和模块，以支持对其档案的最终监管审查。</blockquote></p><p> In addition,Novavax&nbsp;have&nbsp;announced the completion of its rolling regulatory submission to the U.K.;</p><p><blockquote>此外， Novavax 已宣布完成向英国的滚动监管提交；</blockquote></p><p> Novavax has announced that it has already completed its rolling submission to the Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA) in Australia for provisional approval of its COVID-19 vaccine candidate.</p><p><blockquote>Novavax宣布，它已经完成了向澳大利亚治疗用品管理局（TGA）的滚动提交，以临时批准其新冠肺炎候选疫苗。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Novavax stock surged 14.2% in premarket trading<blockquote>Novavax 股价在盘前交易中飙升 14.2%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNovavax stock surged 14.2% in premarket trading<blockquote>Novavax 股价在盘前交易中飙升 14.2%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-11-01 19:03</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Biotechnology company Novavax stock surged 14.2% in premarket trading&nbsp;after filing for authorization of its COVID-19 vaccine in multiple countries and regions.</p><p><blockquote>生物技术公司 Novavax 的 COVID-19 疫苗在多个国家和地区申请授权后，其股价在盘前交易中飙升 14.2%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f507bc8048dfc7207968fa1251226ef\" tg-width=\"849\" tg-height=\"618\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Novavax,&nbsp;Inc.&nbsp;today announced the completion of its rolling submission to Health Canada for authorization of its COVID-19 vaccine candidate, the first filing of a protein-based COVID-19 vaccine inCanada. In addition, the company has completed the submission of all data and modules to the European Medicines Agency (EMA) to support the final regulatory review of its dossier.</p><p><blockquote>Novavax，Inc.今天宣布完成向加拿大卫生部提交新冠肺炎候选疫苗授权的滚动提交，这是加拿大首次提交基于蛋白质的新冠肺炎疫苗。此外，该公司已完成向欧洲药品管理局（EMA）提交所有数据和模块，以支持对其档案的最终监管审查。</blockquote></p><p> In addition,Novavax&nbsp;have&nbsp;announced the completion of its rolling regulatory submission to the U.K.;</p><p><blockquote>此外， Novavax 已宣布完成向英国的滚动监管提交；</blockquote></p><p> Novavax has announced that it has already completed its rolling submission to the Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA) in Australia for provisional approval of its COVID-19 vaccine candidate.</p><p><blockquote>Novavax宣布，它已经完成了向澳大利亚治疗用品管理局（TGA）的滚动提交，以临时批准其新冠肺炎候选疫苗。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVAX":"诺瓦瓦克斯医药"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1118499473","content_text":"Biotechnology company Novavax stock surged 14.2% in premarket trading after filing for authorization of its COVID-19 vaccine in multiple countries and regions.\n\nNovavax, Inc. today announced the completion of its rolling submission to Health Canada for authorization of its COVID-19 vaccine candidate, the first filing of a protein-based COVID-19 vaccine inCanada. In addition, the company has completed the submission of all data and modules to the European Medicines Agency (EMA) to support the final regulatory review of its dossier.\nIn addition,Novavax have announced the completion of its rolling regulatory submission to the U.K.;\nNovavax has announced that it has already completed its rolling submission to the Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA) in Australia for provisional approval of its COVID-19 vaccine candidate.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVAX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5068,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":840089900,"gmtCreate":1635567942160,"gmtModify":1635567942160,"author":{"id":"3576849200483737","authorId":"3576849200483737","name":"Fuzzyfuzzy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83fbe5cf3fa66c4ec89abe62d2856950","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576849200483737","idStr":"3576849200483737"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Huh","listText":"Huh","text":"Huh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/840089900","repostId":"2179471352","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2179471352","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1635566092,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2179471352?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-30 11:54","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Opinion:Here's the math for Tesla's stock price if it becomes the Apple of car makers<blockquote>观点：如果特斯拉成为汽车制造商的苹果，特斯拉的股价计算如下</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2179471352","media":"Market watch","summary":"For those that don’t know, in the early 2000s it was unimaginable that these legacy mobile phone manufacturers could disappear. In 2006, Research in Motion , the company making BlackBerrys, lost a patent suit against NTP and a U.S. District Court judge slapped an injunction on sales. The Defense Department stepped in, claiming that a Blackberry injunction was a threat to national security. Meanwhile, industry leader Nokia held a 40% market share and by the end of 2007 sported a $230 billion mark","content":"<p>Fans and shareholders of Tesla are making stronger and louder arguments about the future of their favorite company. In them, they draw analogies to one of the most successful brands and businesses in the history of capitalism. They suggest that automaking may go the way of handset manufacturing and that – for TeslaTSLA,+3.43%– there is a strong resemblance to the AppleAAPL,-1.82%vs. Nokia/Blackberry/Ericsson/Motorola dynamic.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉的粉丝和股东正在对他们最喜欢的公司的未来进行更强烈、更响亮的争论。在书中，他们将资本主义历史上最成功的品牌和企业之一进行了类比。他们认为汽车制造可能会走上手机制造的道路，而且对于特斯拉来说，SLA+3.43%，与苹果APL（-1.82%）非常相似。诺基亚/黑莓/爱立信/摩托罗拉动力。</blockquote></p><p> For those that don’t know, in the early 2000s it was unimaginable that these legacy mobile phone manufacturers could disappear. In 2006, Research in Motion (RIM), the company making BlackBerrys, lost a patent suit against NTP and a U.S. District Court judge slapped an injunction on sales. The Defense Department stepped in, claiming that a Blackberry injunction was a threat to national security. Meanwhile, industry leader Nokia held a 40% market share and by the end of 2007 sported a $230 billion market cap.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些不知道的人来说，在本世纪初，这些传统手机制造商会消失是不可想象的。2006 年，生产黑莓手机的 Research in Motion (RIM) 公司在针对 NTP 的专利诉讼中败诉，美国地方法院法官下达了销售禁令。国防部介入，声称黑莓禁令对国家安全构成威胁。与此同时，行业领导者诺基亚占据了40%的市场份额，到2007年底，其市值达到了2300亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> But something else happened in 2007.</p><p><blockquote>但是2007年发生了别的事情。</blockquote></p><p> Steve Jobs introduced the iPhone.</p><p><blockquote>史蒂夫·乔布斯推出了iPhone。</blockquote></p><p> And that changed the game for Nokia, Blackberry and the entire industry, forever.</p><p><blockquote>这永远改变了诺基亚、黑莓和整个行业的游戏规则。</blockquote></p><p> Coincidentally, Jobs introduced that iPhone seven months after Tesla introduced the Roadster at the San Francisco International Auto Show. Fast forward to 2021, and the bulls are suggesting that Apple’s overwhelming success in handset manufacturing can be mirrored in automobile manufacturing by Elon Musk’s Tesla.</p><p><blockquote>巧合的是，乔布斯在特斯拉在旧金山国际车展上推出Roadster 7个月后推出了iPhone。时间快进到 2021 年，多头认为苹果在手机制造领域取得的巨大成功可以通过埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）的特斯拉在汽车制造领域得到复制。</blockquote></p><p> For this to happen, let’s first assume that within 15 years buyers will demand a broadly similar “form factor” for any vehicle. Today, there are 250 brands of cars sold to fit all appetites and budgets, and perhaps over 1,000 trims. Meanwhile, thanks to the iPhone, handset hardware has gone from a myriad of styles, sizes and forms to basically one.</p><p><blockquote>要实现这一点，我们首先假设在 15 年内，买家对任何车辆的 “外形 ”要求都大致相似。如今，有 250 个品牌的汽车销售，以满足各种口味和预算，可能还有 1,000 多种装饰。与此同时，多亏了iPhone，手机硬件已经从无数种风格、尺寸和形式变成了基本上只有一种。</blockquote></p><p> Similarly, let’s imagine that the production and value of automobiles and light trucks will become less about the style or performance that is demanded and instead mostly about the software inside the vehicle.</p><p><blockquote>同样，让我们想象一下，汽车和轻型卡车的生产和价值将不再取决于所需的款式或性能，而是主要取决于车内的软件。</blockquote></p><p> Finally (and this is a huge debate, but) let’s presuppose that Tesla will have better software – most importantly better autonomous driving capability – than any other vendor or manufacturer, whether in Silicon Valley, Detroit, Wolfsburg or elsewhere.</p><p><blockquote>最后（这是一个巨大的争论，但）让我们假设特斯拉将拥有比任何其他供应商或制造商更好的软件--最重要的是更好的自动驾驶能力--无论是在硅谷、底特律、沃尔夫斯堡还是其他地方。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, let’s assume that Tesla is going to become the Apple of automakers.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，假设特斯拉将成为汽车制造商的苹果。</blockquote></p><p> To do this, we need to ignore that Apple is not just a handset manufacturer. In the first three quarters this year, it reported over $150 billion of iPhone sales, which represented 55% of total sales. It also reported sales from the “Services” segment, which included sales from advertising, digital content, AppleCare and other lines. If we assume all that revenue was driven by the iPhone (even though not all was), then we get the iPhone representing about 65%-70% of Apple’s sales.</p><p><blockquote>要做到这一点，我们需要忽略苹果不仅仅是一家手机制造商。今年前三个季度，该公司报告的iPhone销售额超过1500亿美元，占总销售额的55%。该公司还报告了 “服务 ”部门的销售额，其中包括广告、数字内容、AppleCare 和其他领域的销售额。如果我们假设所有收入都是由 iPhone 推动的（尽管并非全部），那么 iPhone 约占苹果销售额的 65%-70%。</blockquote></p><p> This implies Apple has a substantial business (about $110 billion this year) selling Macs, iPads, wearables and accessories too. So in our “Tesla is Apple” analogy, we need to assume that Tesla will make similar extensions into new products.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着苹果在销售 Mac、iPad、可穿戴设备和配件方面也拥有庞大的业务（今年约 1100 亿美元）。因此，在我们的 “特斯拉就是苹果 ”类比中，我们需要假设特斯拉也会对新产品进行类似的扩展。</blockquote></p><p> We also need to ignore that most of the profit for Apple in handsets comes from mobile advertising and app sales, much of which Apple reports in that services segment noted above. Again, to stay in our framework, we also need to believe that Tesla would generate something similar via its over-the-air updates or its own app store.</p><p><blockquote>我们还需要忽略这样一个事实，即苹果在手机领域的大部分利润来自移动广告和应用程序销售，其中大部分是苹果在上述服务领域报告的。同样，为了留在我们的框架内，我们还需要相信特斯拉会通过其无线更新或自己的应用商店产生类似的东西。</blockquote></p><p> Making all these assumptions, then future margins in “automaking” – for at least one manufacturer – could theoretically start trending up toward the margins generated today by Apple.</p><p><blockquote>做出所有这些假设，那么 “汽车制造 ”领域的未来利润率--至少对一家制造商来说--理论上可能会开始向苹果今天产生的利润率上升趋势。</blockquote></p><p> So in terms of handset market share, people around the world are going to buy approximately 1.4 billion handsets this year, and the average selling price will be about $320. Apple has about 16% of the global market, and will sell about 225 million iPhones.</p><p><blockquote>所以就手机市场份额而言，今年全球人们将购买大约14亿部手机，平均售价将在320美元左右。苹果拥有全球约16%的市场份额，将销售约2.25亿部iPhone。</blockquote></p><p> Just guessing here, but if these iPhones are sold at an average price of $890, then the average price of all the other phones sold in the world needs to be about $125 for the math to make sense. And because Apple can sell its iPhone at such a huge premium and produce remarkable revenues from advertising and app store sales, it generates a whopping 24% earnings margin.</p><p><blockquote>这里只是猜测，但如果这些iPhone的平均价格为890美元，那么世界上销售的所有其他手机的平均价格需要在125美元左右，数学才有意义。由于苹果可以以如此高的溢价销售其 iPhone，并从广告和应用商店销售中产生可观的收入，因此它产生了高达 24% 的利润率。</blockquote></p><p> In comparison, VolkswagenVOW3,-0.49%VWAPY,-2.43%,which started operations in 1938, has worked its way up to a global market share of 12.0% and generates net income margins of 5.0%.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，1938 年开始运营的大众 VOW3,-0.49% VWAPY,-2.43% 的全球市场份额已达到 12.0%，净利润率为 5.0%。</blockquote></p><p> Toyota7203,+0.33%TM,+0.05%,which also started operations in 1938, also has a global market share of 12.0% and generates even better net income margins of approximately 7.0%.</p><p><blockquote>丰田7203，+0.33%TM，+0.05%，也于1938年开始运营，全球市场份额也为12.0%，净利润率更高，约为7.0%。</blockquote></p><p> Nokia, for what it is worth, generated 14% net margins before the iPhone changed the game.&nbsp; In other words, even before Apple showed up, handset manufacturing was over twice as profitable for market leaders as making cars.</p><p><blockquote>就其价值而言，诺基亚在iPhone改变游戏规则之前创造了14%的净利润。换句话说，即使在苹果出现之前，手机制造对市场领导者来说的利润也是制造汽车的两倍多。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Anyway, folks around the world will buy about 75 million new cars this year, and at an average price of $30,000 (ballpark) this works out to over $2.2 trillion in sales. This is about five times larger than the handset market, which will come in at about $450 million. Toyota and Volkswagen are the largest – and best in class – scale automobile manufacturers in the world. Other groups, including FordF,+1.30%,Stellantis (FCA/Peugeot)STLA,-0.50%,DaimlerDAI,+2.25%,General MotorsGM,+0.35%,Honda7267,-0.53%HMC,-0.40%,BMWBMW,-0.11%and many others also have significant share.</p><p><blockquote>无论如何，今年世界各地的人们将购买约 7500 万辆新车，以 30,000 美元（大致）的平均价格计算，销售额将超过 2.2 万亿美元。这大约是手机市场的五倍，手机市场的收入约为 4.5 亿美元。丰田和大众是世界上最大的、也是同类中最好的汽车制造商。其他集团，包括福特F，+1.30%，Stellantis (FCA/标致) STLA，-0.50%，戴姆勒DAI，+2.25%，通用汽车SGM，+0.35%，本田7267，-0.53%HMC，-0.40%，宝马宝马，-0.11%等许多其他集团也拥有重要份额。</blockquote></p><p> This year, Tesla will sell about a million cars, representing a global market share of 1.3%.</p><p><blockquote>今年，特斯拉将销售约100万辆汽车，占全球市场份额1.3%。</blockquote></p><p> And dare I say that each of Tesla’s competitors will be loath to surrender more market share, thus the huge amount of R&amp;D and capital spending they will devote to the upcoming transition to electric vehicles (EVs). On the CAPEX metric alone, we can see that these competitors will actually spend more next year than Tesla.</p><p><blockquote>我敢说，特斯拉的每个竞争对手都不愿意放弃更多的市场份额，因此他们将把巨额研发和资本支出投入到即将到来的电动汽车（EV）转型中。仅从资本支出指标来看，我们可以看到这些竞争对手明年的支出实际上将超过特斯拉。</blockquote></p><p> A lot more.</p><p><blockquote>更多。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0b0383d691f139a5d04a2a94c2bd399\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">ALBERT BRIDGE CAPITAL</p><p><blockquote>艾伯特桥资本</blockquote></p><p> But still, let’s assume all the legacy automakers fail to maintain share. Let’s also envision that most of the profits in the industry will eventually go to Tesla (as they have in handsets to Apple).</p><p><blockquote>不过，我们还是假设所有传统汽车制造商都未能保持市场份额。我们还可以设想，该行业的大部分利润最终将流向特斯拉（就像手机流向苹果一样）。</blockquote></p><p> As a baseline, analysts anticipate that Tesla will generate over $50 billion in sales this year. Over 85% of these sales are related to its automotive business.</p><p><blockquote>作为基线，分析师预计特斯拉今年的销售额将超过 500 亿美元。其中超过 85% 的销售额与其汽车业务有关。</blockquote></p><p> In 2035, if EVs represents 95% of all new cars sold, and Tesla has the same 16% market share as Apple does today (significantly eclipsing that of VW or Toyota), it will be producing 22 million cars and light trucks, and generating sales of over $1 trillion.</p><p><blockquote>到 2035 年，如果电动汽车占所有新车销量的 95%，并且特斯拉拥有与苹果今天相同的 16% 的市场份额（大大超过大众或丰田），那么它将生产 2200 万辆汽车和轻型卡车，销售额将超过 1 万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> This year, analysts anticipate that Tesla will generate nearly $7 billion in adjusted net income (which will include approximately $1.2 billion in profits driven by regulatory credits).</p><p><blockquote>今年，分析师预计特斯拉将产生近 70 亿美元的调整后净利润（其中包括监管信贷推动的约 12 亿美元利润）。</blockquote></p><p> If Tesla were able to generate the same 24% net earnings margin as Apple does today (remember VW is at 5% and Toyota at 7%), then it would produce about $250 billion of earnings in 2035.</p><p><blockquote>如果特斯拉能够产生与苹果今天相同的 24% 净利润率（记住大众为 5%，丰田为 7%），那么它将在 2035 年产生约 2500 亿美元的收益。</blockquote></p><p> As Tesla has grown from zero to one million cars, it has built production facilities in Freemont, Shanghai and soon Austin; battery-producing gigafactories in Nevada, Buffalo, Germany and Austin again; and other manufacturing and tooling facilities in Michigan, Ontario, Shanghai, two more in California and three more in Germany.</p><p><blockquote>随着特斯拉从零到一百万辆汽车的发展，它已经在Freemont、Shanghai和不久的Austin建立了生产设施；内华达州、布法罗、德国和奥斯汀再次出现电池生产超级工厂；以及密歇根州、安大略省、上海的其他制造和模具工厂，加利福尼亚州还有两个工厂，德国还有三个工厂。</blockquote></p><p> To finance this expansion, Tesla went from 35 million diluted shares in 2009 to 641 million in 2015 to over 1.1 billion today. Of course some of these went to key executives in the firm as compensation, but for the most part, this share issuance helped to finance the firm’s stunning growth to date.</p><p><blockquote>为了为此次扩张提供资金，特斯拉从 2009 年的 3500 万股稀释股票增加到 2015 年的 6.41 亿股，再到如今的超过 11 亿股。当然，其中一些作为补偿发给了公司的主要高管，但在很大程度上，这次股票发行为公司迄今为止的惊人增长提供了资金。</blockquote></p><p> And if Tesla is going to build over 20 million units a year (up from about 1 million this year), this will require a lot more capital. But given its strong share price and internal cash flow generation, let’s assume that the rate of new share issuance at Tesla will slow dramatically, to just 1.5% new shares per year. At this rate, they would have “only” 1.4 billion shares in 2035.</p><p><blockquote>如果特斯拉每年要建造超过 2000 万辆汽车（高于今年的约 100 万辆），这将需要更多的资本。但鉴于其强劲的股价和内部现金流，让我们假设特斯拉的新股发行速度将大幅放缓，每年新股发行量仅为 1.5%。按照这个速度，到 2035 年，他们 “只有 ”14 亿股股票。</blockquote></p><p> And in that year, on production of 22 million vehicles at an average selling price of $46,000 (again, our guess) and doing 24% net earnings margins, this $250 billion of earnings would work out to about $178 per share.</p><p><blockquote>那一年，以平均售价 46,000 美元（同样是我们的猜测）生产 2200 万辆汽车，净利润率为 24%，这 2500 亿美元的收益将达到每股约 178 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Given Tesla’s domination in this scenario where it maxes out its market share, the only negative is that it would no longer be a secular story, but one more exposed to the cyclical nature of automaking. So its huge amount of revenue and income would naturally be growing much more slowly by then. But, again for the sake of this exercise, let’s assume that Tesla will still find a way to continue to generate a consistent 10% EPS growth on that $250 billion number.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于特斯拉在这种最大限度地扩大市场份额的情况下占据主导地位，唯一的负面影响是它将不再是一个世俗的故事，而是一个更加暴露于汽车制造周期性的故事。因此，到那时，其巨额收入和收入的增长自然会慢得多。但是，同样为了本次练习的目的，让我们假设特斯拉仍将找到一种方法，在 2500 亿美元的数字上继续实现 10% 的每股收益持续增长。</blockquote></p><p> And despite this slowing, let’s also assume that investors will want to pay a P/E ratio of over 20 for a now huge and cyclical business.</p><p><blockquote>尽管经济放缓，但我们也假设投资者愿意为一家目前规模庞大且具有周期性的企业支付超过 20 的市盈率。</blockquote></p><p> On a P/E of 22.5, that would work out to a market cap of $5.6 trillion, and a share price of $4,000.</p><p><blockquote>如果市盈率为 22.5，那么市值将达到 5.6 万亿美元，股价为 4,000 美元。</blockquote></p><p> These are big numbers. And despite what we hear from the more optimistic of the Tesla bulls, let’s also assume that today’s shareholders only hope to make 10% per year between now and 2035.</p><p><blockquote>这些都是很大的数字。尽管我们从更乐观的特斯拉多头那里听到了一些说法，但让我们也假设，从现在到 2035 年，今天的股东只希望每年赚取 10% 的收益。</blockquote></p><p> If we discount that $4,000 by 10% back to today, the shares are worth $1,050.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们将这 4,000 美元折扣 10%，回到今天，这些股票的价值为 1,050 美元。</blockquote></p><p> That is pretty close to where we are right now.</p><p><blockquote>这与我们现在的情况非常接近。</blockquote></p><p> So all that above is what needs to happen for $1,050 to be a fair share price today.</p><p><blockquote>因此，以上就是 1,050 美元要想成为当今公平的股价需要发生的事情。</blockquote></p><p> Doubters, admittedly like us, will suggest that the execution risk is tremendous, and these market shares (and particularly the margins) may be impossible.</p><p><blockquote>怀疑者，诚然和我们一样，会认为执行风险是巨大的，这些市场份额（尤其是利润率）可能是不可能的。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Yet, despite the fact that we actually can’t ignore the differences between the mobile phone and automobile industries noted above, the believers – who may indeed be right – will literally need to see Apple-esque industry dynamics, market shares and earnings margins for this all to make sense.</p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管我们实际上不能忽视上述手机和汽车行业之间的差异，但信徒们--他们可能确实是对的--确实需要看到苹果式的行业动态、市场份额和利润率，才能让这一切变得有意义。</blockquote></p><p> It is also important to consider that for there to be even more upside in the shares from current levels, Tesla will actually have to exceed everything that Apple has accomplished.</p><p><blockquote>同样重要的是要考虑到，要想让股价在当前水平上有更大的上涨空间，特斯拉实际上必须超越苹果所取得的一切成就。</blockquote></p><p> Whether a bull or a bear, there is no doubting that what Musk has achieved thus far has been nothing short of incredible. Five years ago, few would have thought it even possible that Hertz would order 100,000 Teslas in a single order for its car rental fleet, or that Tesla would produce and sell a million cars in a single year.</p><p><blockquote>无论是牛市还是熊市，毫无疑问，马斯克迄今为止所取得的成就都令人难以置信。五年前，很少有人会想到赫兹会为其汽车租赁车队一次性订购 10 万辆特斯拉，或者特斯拉会在一年内生产和销售 100 万辆汽车。</blockquote></p><p> He will continue to do incredible things.&nbsp; He has changed the world and the mindset of his competitors. None of that is in question. The future that his share price is discounting is the question we are asking today.</p><p><blockquote>他会继续做不可思议的事情。 他改变了世界和竞争对手的心态。这些都是不可能的。他的股价打折的未来是我们今天要问的问题。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1616996754749","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion:Here's the math for Tesla's stock price if it becomes the Apple of car makers<blockquote>观点：如果特斯拉成为汽车制造商的苹果，特斯拉的股价计算如下</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion:Here's the math for Tesla's stock price if it becomes the Apple of car makers<blockquote>观点：如果特斯拉成为汽车制造商的苹果，特斯拉的股价计算如下</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Market watch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-30 11:54</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Fans and shareholders of Tesla are making stronger and louder arguments about the future of their favorite company. In them, they draw analogies to one of the most successful brands and businesses in the history of capitalism. They suggest that automaking may go the way of handset manufacturing and that – for TeslaTSLA,+3.43%– there is a strong resemblance to the AppleAAPL,-1.82%vs. Nokia/Blackberry/Ericsson/Motorola dynamic.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉的粉丝和股东正在对他们最喜欢的公司的未来进行更强烈、更响亮的争论。在书中，他们将资本主义历史上最成功的品牌和企业之一进行了类比。他们认为汽车制造可能会走上手机制造的道路，而且对于特斯拉来说，SLA+3.43%，与苹果APL（-1.82%）非常相似。诺基亚/黑莓/爱立信/摩托罗拉动力。</blockquote></p><p> For those that don’t know, in the early 2000s it was unimaginable that these legacy mobile phone manufacturers could disappear. In 2006, Research in Motion (RIM), the company making BlackBerrys, lost a patent suit against NTP and a U.S. District Court judge slapped an injunction on sales. The Defense Department stepped in, claiming that a Blackberry injunction was a threat to national security. Meanwhile, industry leader Nokia held a 40% market share and by the end of 2007 sported a $230 billion market cap.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些不知道的人来说，在本世纪初，这些传统手机制造商会消失是不可想象的。2006 年，生产黑莓手机的 Research in Motion (RIM) 公司在针对 NTP 的专利诉讼中败诉，美国地方法院法官下达了销售禁令。国防部介入，声称黑莓禁令对国家安全构成威胁。与此同时，行业领导者诺基亚占据了40%的市场份额，到2007年底，其市值达到了2300亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> But something else happened in 2007.</p><p><blockquote>但是2007年发生了别的事情。</blockquote></p><p> Steve Jobs introduced the iPhone.</p><p><blockquote>史蒂夫·乔布斯推出了iPhone。</blockquote></p><p> And that changed the game for Nokia, Blackberry and the entire industry, forever.</p><p><blockquote>这永远改变了诺基亚、黑莓和整个行业的游戏规则。</blockquote></p><p> Coincidentally, Jobs introduced that iPhone seven months after Tesla introduced the Roadster at the San Francisco International Auto Show. Fast forward to 2021, and the bulls are suggesting that Apple’s overwhelming success in handset manufacturing can be mirrored in automobile manufacturing by Elon Musk’s Tesla.</p><p><blockquote>巧合的是，乔布斯在特斯拉在旧金山国际车展上推出Roadster 7个月后推出了iPhone。时间快进到 2021 年，多头认为苹果在手机制造领域取得的巨大成功可以通过埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）的特斯拉在汽车制造领域得到复制。</blockquote></p><p> For this to happen, let’s first assume that within 15 years buyers will demand a broadly similar “form factor” for any vehicle. Today, there are 250 brands of cars sold to fit all appetites and budgets, and perhaps over 1,000 trims. Meanwhile, thanks to the iPhone, handset hardware has gone from a myriad of styles, sizes and forms to basically one.</p><p><blockquote>要实现这一点，我们首先假设在 15 年内，买家对任何车辆的 “外形 ”要求都大致相似。如今，有 250 个品牌的汽车销售，以满足各种口味和预算，可能还有 1,000 多种装饰。与此同时，多亏了iPhone，手机硬件已经从无数种风格、尺寸和形式变成了基本上只有一种。</blockquote></p><p> Similarly, let’s imagine that the production and value of automobiles and light trucks will become less about the style or performance that is demanded and instead mostly about the software inside the vehicle.</p><p><blockquote>同样，让我们想象一下，汽车和轻型卡车的生产和价值将不再取决于所需的款式或性能，而是主要取决于车内的软件。</blockquote></p><p> Finally (and this is a huge debate, but) let’s presuppose that Tesla will have better software – most importantly better autonomous driving capability – than any other vendor or manufacturer, whether in Silicon Valley, Detroit, Wolfsburg or elsewhere.</p><p><blockquote>最后（这是一个巨大的争论，但）让我们假设特斯拉将拥有比任何其他供应商或制造商更好的软件--最重要的是更好的自动驾驶能力--无论是在硅谷、底特律、沃尔夫斯堡还是其他地方。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, let’s assume that Tesla is going to become the Apple of automakers.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，假设特斯拉将成为汽车制造商的苹果。</blockquote></p><p> To do this, we need to ignore that Apple is not just a handset manufacturer. In the first three quarters this year, it reported over $150 billion of iPhone sales, which represented 55% of total sales. It also reported sales from the “Services” segment, which included sales from advertising, digital content, AppleCare and other lines. If we assume all that revenue was driven by the iPhone (even though not all was), then we get the iPhone representing about 65%-70% of Apple’s sales.</p><p><blockquote>要做到这一点，我们需要忽略苹果不仅仅是一家手机制造商。今年前三个季度，该公司报告的iPhone销售额超过1500亿美元，占总销售额的55%。该公司还报告了 “服务 ”部门的销售额，其中包括广告、数字内容、AppleCare 和其他领域的销售额。如果我们假设所有收入都是由 iPhone 推动的（尽管并非全部），那么 iPhone 约占苹果销售额的 65%-70%。</blockquote></p><p> This implies Apple has a substantial business (about $110 billion this year) selling Macs, iPads, wearables and accessories too. So in our “Tesla is Apple” analogy, we need to assume that Tesla will make similar extensions into new products.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着苹果在销售 Mac、iPad、可穿戴设备和配件方面也拥有庞大的业务（今年约 1100 亿美元）。因此，在我们的 “特斯拉就是苹果 ”类比中，我们需要假设特斯拉也会对新产品进行类似的扩展。</blockquote></p><p> We also need to ignore that most of the profit for Apple in handsets comes from mobile advertising and app sales, much of which Apple reports in that services segment noted above. Again, to stay in our framework, we also need to believe that Tesla would generate something similar via its over-the-air updates or its own app store.</p><p><blockquote>我们还需要忽略这样一个事实，即苹果在手机领域的大部分利润来自移动广告和应用程序销售，其中大部分是苹果在上述服务领域报告的。同样，为了留在我们的框架内，我们还需要相信特斯拉会通过其无线更新或自己的应用商店产生类似的东西。</blockquote></p><p> Making all these assumptions, then future margins in “automaking” – for at least one manufacturer – could theoretically start trending up toward the margins generated today by Apple.</p><p><blockquote>做出所有这些假设，那么 “汽车制造 ”领域的未来利润率--至少对一家制造商来说--理论上可能会开始向苹果今天产生的利润率上升趋势。</blockquote></p><p> So in terms of handset market share, people around the world are going to buy approximately 1.4 billion handsets this year, and the average selling price will be about $320. Apple has about 16% of the global market, and will sell about 225 million iPhones.</p><p><blockquote>所以就手机市场份额而言，今年全球人们将购买大约14亿部手机，平均售价将在320美元左右。苹果拥有全球约16%的市场份额，将销售约2.25亿部iPhone。</blockquote></p><p> Just guessing here, but if these iPhones are sold at an average price of $890, then the average price of all the other phones sold in the world needs to be about $125 for the math to make sense. And because Apple can sell its iPhone at such a huge premium and produce remarkable revenues from advertising and app store sales, it generates a whopping 24% earnings margin.</p><p><blockquote>这里只是猜测，但如果这些iPhone的平均价格为890美元，那么世界上销售的所有其他手机的平均价格需要在125美元左右，数学才有意义。由于苹果可以以如此高的溢价销售其 iPhone，并从广告和应用商店销售中产生可观的收入，因此它产生了高达 24% 的利润率。</blockquote></p><p> In comparison, VolkswagenVOW3,-0.49%VWAPY,-2.43%,which started operations in 1938, has worked its way up to a global market share of 12.0% and generates net income margins of 5.0%.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，1938 年开始运营的大众 VOW3,-0.49% VWAPY,-2.43% 的全球市场份额已达到 12.0%，净利润率为 5.0%。</blockquote></p><p> Toyota7203,+0.33%TM,+0.05%,which also started operations in 1938, also has a global market share of 12.0% and generates even better net income margins of approximately 7.0%.</p><p><blockquote>丰田7203，+0.33%TM，+0.05%，也于1938年开始运营，全球市场份额也为12.0%，净利润率更高，约为7.0%。</blockquote></p><p> Nokia, for what it is worth, generated 14% net margins before the iPhone changed the game.&nbsp; In other words, even before Apple showed up, handset manufacturing was over twice as profitable for market leaders as making cars.</p><p><blockquote>就其价值而言，诺基亚在iPhone改变游戏规则之前创造了14%的净利润。换句话说，即使在苹果出现之前，手机制造对市场领导者来说的利润也是制造汽车的两倍多。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Anyway, folks around the world will buy about 75 million new cars this year, and at an average price of $30,000 (ballpark) this works out to over $2.2 trillion in sales. This is about five times larger than the handset market, which will come in at about $450 million. Toyota and Volkswagen are the largest – and best in class – scale automobile manufacturers in the world. Other groups, including FordF,+1.30%,Stellantis (FCA/Peugeot)STLA,-0.50%,DaimlerDAI,+2.25%,General MotorsGM,+0.35%,Honda7267,-0.53%HMC,-0.40%,BMWBMW,-0.11%and many others also have significant share.</p><p><blockquote>无论如何，今年世界各地的人们将购买约 7500 万辆新车，以 30,000 美元（大致）的平均价格计算，销售额将超过 2.2 万亿美元。这大约是手机市场的五倍，手机市场的收入约为 4.5 亿美元。丰田和大众是世界上最大的、也是同类中最好的汽车制造商。其他集团，包括福特F，+1.30%，Stellantis (FCA/标致) STLA，-0.50%，戴姆勒DAI，+2.25%，通用汽车SGM，+0.35%，本田7267，-0.53%HMC，-0.40%，宝马宝马，-0.11%等许多其他集团也拥有重要份额。</blockquote></p><p> This year, Tesla will sell about a million cars, representing a global market share of 1.3%.</p><p><blockquote>今年，特斯拉将销售约100万辆汽车，占全球市场份额1.3%。</blockquote></p><p> And dare I say that each of Tesla’s competitors will be loath to surrender more market share, thus the huge amount of R&amp;D and capital spending they will devote to the upcoming transition to electric vehicles (EVs). On the CAPEX metric alone, we can see that these competitors will actually spend more next year than Tesla.</p><p><blockquote>我敢说，特斯拉的每个竞争对手都不愿意放弃更多的市场份额，因此他们将把巨额研发和资本支出投入到即将到来的电动汽车（EV）转型中。仅从资本支出指标来看，我们可以看到这些竞争对手明年的支出实际上将超过特斯拉。</blockquote></p><p> A lot more.</p><p><blockquote>更多。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0b0383d691f139a5d04a2a94c2bd399\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">ALBERT BRIDGE CAPITAL</p><p><blockquote>艾伯特桥资本</blockquote></p><p> But still, let’s assume all the legacy automakers fail to maintain share. Let’s also envision that most of the profits in the industry will eventually go to Tesla (as they have in handsets to Apple).</p><p><blockquote>不过，我们还是假设所有传统汽车制造商都未能保持市场份额。我们还可以设想，该行业的大部分利润最终将流向特斯拉（就像手机流向苹果一样）。</blockquote></p><p> As a baseline, analysts anticipate that Tesla will generate over $50 billion in sales this year. Over 85% of these sales are related to its automotive business.</p><p><blockquote>作为基线，分析师预计特斯拉今年的销售额将超过 500 亿美元。其中超过 85% 的销售额与其汽车业务有关。</blockquote></p><p> In 2035, if EVs represents 95% of all new cars sold, and Tesla has the same 16% market share as Apple does today (significantly eclipsing that of VW or Toyota), it will be producing 22 million cars and light trucks, and generating sales of over $1 trillion.</p><p><blockquote>到 2035 年，如果电动汽车占所有新车销量的 95%，并且特斯拉拥有与苹果今天相同的 16% 的市场份额（大大超过大众或丰田），那么它将生产 2200 万辆汽车和轻型卡车，销售额将超过 1 万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> This year, analysts anticipate that Tesla will generate nearly $7 billion in adjusted net income (which will include approximately $1.2 billion in profits driven by regulatory credits).</p><p><blockquote>今年，分析师预计特斯拉将产生近 70 亿美元的调整后净利润（其中包括监管信贷推动的约 12 亿美元利润）。</blockquote></p><p> If Tesla were able to generate the same 24% net earnings margin as Apple does today (remember VW is at 5% and Toyota at 7%), then it would produce about $250 billion of earnings in 2035.</p><p><blockquote>如果特斯拉能够产生与苹果今天相同的 24% 净利润率（记住大众为 5%，丰田为 7%），那么它将在 2035 年产生约 2500 亿美元的收益。</blockquote></p><p> As Tesla has grown from zero to one million cars, it has built production facilities in Freemont, Shanghai and soon Austin; battery-producing gigafactories in Nevada, Buffalo, Germany and Austin again; and other manufacturing and tooling facilities in Michigan, Ontario, Shanghai, two more in California and three more in Germany.</p><p><blockquote>随着特斯拉从零到一百万辆汽车的发展，它已经在Freemont、Shanghai和不久的Austin建立了生产设施；内华达州、布法罗、德国和奥斯汀再次出现电池生产超级工厂；以及密歇根州、安大略省、上海的其他制造和模具工厂，加利福尼亚州还有两个工厂，德国还有三个工厂。</blockquote></p><p> To finance this expansion, Tesla went from 35 million diluted shares in 2009 to 641 million in 2015 to over 1.1 billion today. Of course some of these went to key executives in the firm as compensation, but for the most part, this share issuance helped to finance the firm’s stunning growth to date.</p><p><blockquote>为了为此次扩张提供资金，特斯拉从 2009 年的 3500 万股稀释股票增加到 2015 年的 6.41 亿股，再到如今的超过 11 亿股。当然，其中一些作为补偿发给了公司的主要高管，但在很大程度上，这次股票发行为公司迄今为止的惊人增长提供了资金。</blockquote></p><p> And if Tesla is going to build over 20 million units a year (up from about 1 million this year), this will require a lot more capital. But given its strong share price and internal cash flow generation, let’s assume that the rate of new share issuance at Tesla will slow dramatically, to just 1.5% new shares per year. At this rate, they would have “only” 1.4 billion shares in 2035.</p><p><blockquote>如果特斯拉每年要建造超过 2000 万辆汽车（高于今年的约 100 万辆），这将需要更多的资本。但鉴于其强劲的股价和内部现金流，让我们假设特斯拉的新股发行速度将大幅放缓，每年新股发行量仅为 1.5%。按照这个速度，到 2035 年，他们 “只有 ”14 亿股股票。</blockquote></p><p> And in that year, on production of 22 million vehicles at an average selling price of $46,000 (again, our guess) and doing 24% net earnings margins, this $250 billion of earnings would work out to about $178 per share.</p><p><blockquote>那一年，以平均售价 46,000 美元（同样是我们的猜测）生产 2200 万辆汽车，净利润率为 24%，这 2500 亿美元的收益将达到每股约 178 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Given Tesla’s domination in this scenario where it maxes out its market share, the only negative is that it would no longer be a secular story, but one more exposed to the cyclical nature of automaking. So its huge amount of revenue and income would naturally be growing much more slowly by then. But, again for the sake of this exercise, let’s assume that Tesla will still find a way to continue to generate a consistent 10% EPS growth on that $250 billion number.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于特斯拉在这种最大限度地扩大市场份额的情况下占据主导地位，唯一的负面影响是它将不再是一个世俗的故事，而是一个更加暴露于汽车制造周期性的故事。因此，到那时，其巨额收入和收入的增长自然会慢得多。但是，同样为了本次练习的目的，让我们假设特斯拉仍将找到一种方法，在 2500 亿美元的数字上继续实现 10% 的每股收益持续增长。</blockquote></p><p> And despite this slowing, let’s also assume that investors will want to pay a P/E ratio of over 20 for a now huge and cyclical business.</p><p><blockquote>尽管经济放缓，但我们也假设投资者愿意为一家目前规模庞大且具有周期性的企业支付超过 20 的市盈率。</blockquote></p><p> On a P/E of 22.5, that would work out to a market cap of $5.6 trillion, and a share price of $4,000.</p><p><blockquote>如果市盈率为 22.5，那么市值将达到 5.6 万亿美元，股价为 4,000 美元。</blockquote></p><p> These are big numbers. And despite what we hear from the more optimistic of the Tesla bulls, let’s also assume that today’s shareholders only hope to make 10% per year between now and 2035.</p><p><blockquote>这些都是很大的数字。尽管我们从更乐观的特斯拉多头那里听到了一些说法，但让我们也假设，从现在到 2035 年，今天的股东只希望每年赚取 10% 的收益。</blockquote></p><p> If we discount that $4,000 by 10% back to today, the shares are worth $1,050.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们将这 4,000 美元折扣 10%，回到今天，这些股票的价值为 1,050 美元。</blockquote></p><p> That is pretty close to where we are right now.</p><p><blockquote>这与我们现在的情况非常接近。</blockquote></p><p> So all that above is what needs to happen for $1,050 to be a fair share price today.</p><p><blockquote>因此，以上就是 1,050 美元要想成为当今公平的股价需要发生的事情。</blockquote></p><p> Doubters, admittedly like us, will suggest that the execution risk is tremendous, and these market shares (and particularly the margins) may be impossible.</p><p><blockquote>怀疑者，诚然和我们一样，会认为执行风险是巨大的，这些市场份额（尤其是利润率）可能是不可能的。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Yet, despite the fact that we actually can’t ignore the differences between the mobile phone and automobile industries noted above, the believers – who may indeed be right – will literally need to see Apple-esque industry dynamics, market shares and earnings margins for this all to make sense.</p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管我们实际上不能忽视上述手机和汽车行业之间的差异，但信徒们--他们可能确实是对的--确实需要看到苹果式的行业动态、市场份额和利润率，才能让这一切变得有意义。</blockquote></p><p> It is also important to consider that for there to be even more upside in the shares from current levels, Tesla will actually have to exceed everything that Apple has accomplished.</p><p><blockquote>同样重要的是要考虑到，要想让股价在当前水平上有更大的上涨空间，特斯拉实际上必须超越苹果所取得的一切成就。</blockquote></p><p> Whether a bull or a bear, there is no doubting that what Musk has achieved thus far has been nothing short of incredible. Five years ago, few would have thought it even possible that Hertz would order 100,000 Teslas in a single order for its car rental fleet, or that Tesla would produce and sell a million cars in a single year.</p><p><blockquote>无论是牛市还是熊市，毫无疑问，马斯克迄今为止所取得的成就都令人难以置信。五年前，很少有人会想到赫兹会为其汽车租赁车队一次性订购 10 万辆特斯拉，或者特斯拉会在一年内生产和销售 100 万辆汽车。</blockquote></p><p> He will continue to do incredible things.&nbsp; He has changed the world and the mindset of his competitors. None of that is in question. The future that his share price is discounting is the question we are asking today.</p><p><blockquote>他会继续做不可思议的事情。 他改变了世界和竞争对手的心态。这些都是不可能的。他的股价打折的未来是我们今天要问的问题。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/if-tesla-is-to-become-the-apple-of-car-makers-this-is-what-it-means-for-the-stock-price-and-the-business-11635513589?mod=home-page\">Market watch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/if-tesla-is-to-become-the-apple-of-car-makers-this-is-what-it-means-for-the-stock-price-and-the-business-11635513589?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2179471352","content_text":"Fans and shareholders of Tesla are making stronger and louder arguments about the future of their favorite company. In them, they draw analogies to one of the most successful brands and businesses in the history of capitalism. They suggest that automaking may go the way of handset manufacturing and that – for TeslaTSLA,+3.43%– there is a strong resemblance to the AppleAAPL,-1.82%vs. Nokia/Blackberry/Ericsson/Motorola dynamic.\nFor those that don’t know, in the early 2000s it was unimaginable that these legacy mobile phone manufacturers could disappear. In 2006, Research in Motion (RIM), the company making BlackBerrys, lost a patent suit against NTP and a U.S. District Court judge slapped an injunction on sales. The Defense Department stepped in, claiming that a Blackberry injunction was a threat to national security. Meanwhile, industry leader Nokia held a 40% market share and by the end of 2007 sported a $230 billion market cap.\nBut something else happened in 2007.\nSteve Jobs introduced the iPhone.\nAnd that changed the game for Nokia, Blackberry and the entire industry, forever.\nCoincidentally, Jobs introduced that iPhone seven months after Tesla introduced the Roadster at the San Francisco International Auto Show. Fast forward to 2021, and the bulls are suggesting that Apple’s overwhelming success in handset manufacturing can be mirrored in automobile manufacturing by Elon Musk’s Tesla.\nFor this to happen, let’s first assume that within 15 years buyers will demand a broadly similar “form factor” for any vehicle. Today, there are 250 brands of cars sold to fit all appetites and budgets, and perhaps over 1,000 trims. Meanwhile, thanks to the iPhone, handset hardware has gone from a myriad of styles, sizes and forms to basically one.\nSimilarly, let’s imagine that the production and value of automobiles and light trucks will become less about the style or performance that is demanded and instead mostly about the software inside the vehicle.\nFinally (and this is a huge debate, but) let’s presuppose that Tesla will have better software – most importantly better autonomous driving capability – than any other vendor or manufacturer, whether in Silicon Valley, Detroit, Wolfsburg or elsewhere.\nIn other words, let’s assume that Tesla is going to become the Apple of automakers.\nTo do this, we need to ignore that Apple is not just a handset manufacturer. In the first three quarters this year, it reported over $150 billion of iPhone sales, which represented 55% of total sales. It also reported sales from the “Services” segment, which included sales from advertising, digital content, AppleCare and other lines. If we assume all that revenue was driven by the iPhone (even though not all was), then we get the iPhone representing about 65%-70% of Apple’s sales.\nThis implies Apple has a substantial business (about $110 billion this year) selling Macs, iPads, wearables and accessories too. So in our “Tesla is Apple” analogy, we need to assume that Tesla will make similar extensions into new products.\nWe also need to ignore that most of the profit for Apple in handsets comes from mobile advertising and app sales, much of which Apple reports in that services segment noted above. Again, to stay in our framework, we also need to believe that Tesla would generate something similar via its over-the-air updates or its own app store.\nMaking all these assumptions, then future margins in “automaking” – for at least one manufacturer – could theoretically start trending up toward the margins generated today by Apple.\nSo in terms of handset market share, people around the world are going to buy approximately 1.4 billion handsets this year, and the average selling price will be about $320. Apple has about 16% of the global market, and will sell about 225 million iPhones.\nJust guessing here, but if these iPhones are sold at an average price of $890, then the average price of all the other phones sold in the world needs to be about $125 for the math to make sense. And because Apple can sell its iPhone at such a huge premium and produce remarkable revenues from advertising and app store sales, it generates a whopping 24% earnings margin.\nIn comparison, VolkswagenVOW3,-0.49%VWAPY,-2.43%,which started operations in 1938, has worked its way up to a global market share of 12.0% and generates net income margins of 5.0%.\nToyota7203,+0.33%TM,+0.05%,which also started operations in 1938, also has a global market share of 12.0% and generates even better net income margins of approximately 7.0%.\nNokia, for what it is worth, generated 14% net margins before the iPhone changed the game.  In other words, even before Apple showed up, handset manufacturing was over twice as profitable for market leaders as making cars.\nAnyway, folks around the world will buy about 75 million new cars this year, and at an average price of $30,000 (ballpark) this works out to over $2.2 trillion in sales. This is about five times larger than the handset market, which will come in at about $450 million. Toyota and Volkswagen are the largest – and best in class – scale automobile manufacturers in the world. Other groups, including FordF,+1.30%,Stellantis (FCA/Peugeot)STLA,-0.50%,DaimlerDAI,+2.25%,General MotorsGM,+0.35%,Honda7267,-0.53%HMC,-0.40%,BMWBMW,-0.11%and many others also have significant share.\nThis year, Tesla will sell about a million cars, representing a global market share of 1.3%.\nAnd dare I say that each of Tesla’s competitors will be loath to surrender more market share, thus the huge amount of R&D and capital spending they will devote to the upcoming transition to electric vehicles (EVs). On the CAPEX metric alone, we can see that these competitors will actually spend more next year than Tesla.\nA lot more.\nALBERT BRIDGE CAPITAL\nBut still, let’s assume all the legacy automakers fail to maintain share. Let’s also envision that most of the profits in the industry will eventually go to Tesla (as they have in handsets to Apple).\nAs a baseline, analysts anticipate that Tesla will generate over $50 billion in sales this year. Over 85% of these sales are related to its automotive business.\nIn 2035, if EVs represents 95% of all new cars sold, and Tesla has the same 16% market share as Apple does today (significantly eclipsing that of VW or Toyota), it will be producing 22 million cars and light trucks, and generating sales of over $1 trillion.\nThis year, analysts anticipate that Tesla will generate nearly $7 billion in adjusted net income (which will include approximately $1.2 billion in profits driven by regulatory credits).\nIf Tesla were able to generate the same 24% net earnings margin as Apple does today (remember VW is at 5% and Toyota at 7%), then it would produce about $250 billion of earnings in 2035.\nAs Tesla has grown from zero to one million cars, it has built production facilities in Freemont, Shanghai and soon Austin; battery-producing gigafactories in Nevada, Buffalo, Germany and Austin again; and other manufacturing and tooling facilities in Michigan, Ontario, Shanghai, two more in California and three more in Germany.\nTo finance this expansion, Tesla went from 35 million diluted shares in 2009 to 641 million in 2015 to over 1.1 billion today. Of course some of these went to key executives in the firm as compensation, but for the most part, this share issuance helped to finance the firm’s stunning growth to date.\nAnd if Tesla is going to build over 20 million units a year (up from about 1 million this year), this will require a lot more capital. But given its strong share price and internal cash flow generation, let’s assume that the rate of new share issuance at Tesla will slow dramatically, to just 1.5% new shares per year. At this rate, they would have “only” 1.4 billion shares in 2035.\nAnd in that year, on production of 22 million vehicles at an average selling price of $46,000 (again, our guess) and doing 24% net earnings margins, this $250 billion of earnings would work out to about $178 per share.\nGiven Tesla’s domination in this scenario where it maxes out its market share, the only negative is that it would no longer be a secular story, but one more exposed to the cyclical nature of automaking. So its huge amount of revenue and income would naturally be growing much more slowly by then. But, again for the sake of this exercise, let’s assume that Tesla will still find a way to continue to generate a consistent 10% EPS growth on that $250 billion number.\nAnd despite this slowing, let’s also assume that investors will want to pay a P/E ratio of over 20 for a now huge and cyclical business.\nOn a P/E of 22.5, that would work out to a market cap of $5.6 trillion, and a share price of $4,000.\nThese are big numbers. And despite what we hear from the more optimistic of the Tesla bulls, let’s also assume that today’s shareholders only hope to make 10% per year between now and 2035.\nIf we discount that $4,000 by 10% back to today, the shares are worth $1,050.\nThat is pretty close to where we are right now.\nSo all that above is what needs to happen for $1,050 to be a fair share price today.\nDoubters, admittedly like us, will suggest that the execution risk is tremendous, and these market shares (and particularly the margins) may be impossible.\nYet, despite the fact that we actually can’t ignore the differences between the mobile phone and automobile industries noted above, the believers – who may indeed be right – will literally need to see Apple-esque industry dynamics, market shares and earnings margins for this all to make sense.\nIt is also important to consider that for there to be even more upside in the shares from current levels, Tesla will actually have to exceed everything that Apple has accomplished.\nWhether a bull or a bear, there is no doubting that what Musk has achieved thus far has been nothing short of incredible. Five years ago, few would have thought it even possible that Hertz would order 100,000 Teslas in a single order for its car rental fleet, or that Tesla would produce and sell a million cars in a single year.\nHe will continue to do incredible things.  He has changed the world and the mindset of his competitors. None of that is in question. The future that his share price is discounting is the question we are asking 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variant&nbsp;","listText":"Lambda variant&nbsp;","text":"Lambda variant","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/143126993","repostId":"1145034030","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":997,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":152761283,"gmtCreate":1625357897242,"gmtModify":1631887626728,"author":{"id":"3576849200483737","authorId":"3576849200483737","name":"Fuzzyfuzzy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83fbe5cf3fa66c4ec89abe62d2856950","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576849200483737","idStr":"3576849200483737"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Leaving a second comment","listText":"Leaving a second comment","text":"Leaving a second comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/152761283","repostId":"1114445293","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1114445293","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625277820,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1114445293?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-03 10:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Robinhood’s IPO Could Be a Sign the Stock Market Has Peaked<blockquote>Robinhood 的 IPO 可能是股市见顶的标志</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1114445293","media":"Barron's","summary":"Nothing succeeds like excess, as the old quip goes. Until it doesn’t, which has been the distinguish","content":"<p>Nothing succeeds like excess, as the old quip goes. Until it doesn’t, which has been the distinguishing aspect of market cycles forever and, most dramatically, in this century. Unlike last year’s pandemic-induced paroxysm, the 2000 bursting of the dot-com bubble and the 2008 financial crisis were marked by initial public offerings by companies eager to seize the moment—and investors’ money.</p><p><blockquote>正如一句老话所说，没有什么比过度更成功了。直到它消失，这一直是市场周期的显著特点，最引人注目的是，在本世纪，这一直是市场周期的显著特点。与去年大流行病引发的爆发不同，2000 年网络泡沫破裂和 2008 年金融危机的标志是急于抓住时机和投资者资金的公司进行首次公开募股。</blockquote></p><p> All of which is prologue to what could shape up as this cycle’s bell-ringing event, theinitial public offering of Robinhood, the online broker that pioneered zero commissions and hooked a new generation on investing and trading. Thepaperwork was filedwith the SEC this past week. Financial details about the upstart that purports to democratize investing (and, in the process, was hit with a record$70 million fine by Finra, the brokerage business’s self-regulatory body) are discussedhere, but a few salient points are buried deep in the S-1 filing.</p><p><blockquote>所有这一切都将成为本周期敲钟事件的序幕--在线经纪商 Robinhood 的首次公开募股。该文件已于上周提交给美国证券交易委员会。这里讨论了这家声称要实现投资民主化的新贵（在此过程中，经纪业务的自律机构 Finra 对其处以创纪录的 7000 万美元罚款）的财务细节，但 S-1 文件中深埋在了几个要点之中。</blockquote></p><p> Customer assets more than quadrupled, to $80.9 billion, on March 31 from the total a year earlier, with the lion’s share—some $65.1 billion—accounted for by equities. Options comprised a relatively small $2 billion in assets, but generated nearly half ($197.9 million) of the March quarter’s $420.4 million in transactions revenue. Stocks produced $133.3 million in revenue, even though assets in equities were 40 times as large as those in options. Revenue from cryptocurrencies totaled $87.6 million, with customers’ crypto assets totaling $11.6 billion.</p><p><blockquote>截至 3 月 31 日，客户资产比去年同期翻了两番多，达到 809 亿美元，其中最大的份额--约 651 亿美元--来自股票。期权的资产规模相对较小，只有 20 亿美元，但却创造了 3 月份季度 4.204 亿美元交易收入的近一半（1.979 亿美元）。尽管股票资产是期权资产的 40 倍，但股票仍产生了 1.333 亿美元的收入。加密货币收入总计 8760 万美元，客户加密资产总计 116 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> While Robinhood makes much of opening the market to neophyte investors with limited means by letting them buy fractional shares of their favorite stocks, that’s not its biggest business. Instead, it’s speculative options trading, which exploded early this year especially among the YOLO (You Only Live Once) crowd willing to stake a few bucks on cheap, about-to-expire calls of stocks talked up on Reddit.</p><p><blockquote>虽然 Robinhood 通过让资金有限的新手投资者购买自己喜欢的股票的部分股份，向他们开放市场，但这并不是它最大的业务。相反，投机性期权交易在今年年初呈爆炸式增长，尤其是在 YOLO（You Only Live Once）人群中，他们愿意在 Reddit 上热议的廉价、即将到期的股票评级上下注几美元。</blockquote></p><p> There are signs that the frenzied trading, which peaked during the winter, has eased with the reopening of the economy and the return to the prepandemic normal (and with it an uptick in Covid cases after a steady decline). Trading crypto might be simpler on a brokerage platform like Robinhood, but wasn’t the advantage of DeFi (decentralized finance) supposed to be that intermediaries wouldn’t be needed at all?</p><p><blockquote>有迹象表明，随着经济重新开放和恢复到大流行前的正常状态（新冠病例在稳步下降后有所上升），冬季达到顶峰的疯狂交易已经有所缓解。在 Robinhood 这样的经纪平台上交易加密货币可能会更简单，但 DeFi（去中心化金融）的优势不就是根本不需要中介机构吗？</blockquote></p><p> Bulls on Robinhood would be betting on continued growth of its independent trading model, rather than investors using passive funds through advisors, which the filing derides. The broker pledged to reserve up to 35% of its IPO for its customers, who are apt to be enthusiastic buyers and, more importantly, hold onto them with “diamond hands” through volatile times.</p><p><blockquote>Robinhood 的看涨者将押注于其独立交易模式的持续增长，而不是投资者通过顾问使用被动资金，文件对此嗤之以鼻。该券商承诺将为其客户预留高达 35% 的 IPO 资金，这些客户往往是热情的买家，更重要的是，他们会在动荡时期用 “钻石手 ”抓住他们。</blockquote></p><p> And, indeed, turbulence, or worse, could lie ahead,Michael Burry told our colleague Connor Smith. Burry, a key player in both the book and film versions of<i>The Big Short</i>, won a fortune by betting against the housing market before the subprime mortgage collapse. More recently, he was an early bull onGamestop(ticker: GME), but took his profits in 2020’s fourth quarter before the frenzy around the original meme stock took off. Now he’s warning that the craze will end in tears.</p><p><blockquote>迈克尔·伯里告诉我们的同事康纳·史密斯，事实上，未来可能会出现动荡，甚至更糟的情况。伯里，书籍和电影版中的关键人物<i>大空头</i>在次级抵押贷款崩溃之前，他通过做空房地产市场赢得了一大笔钱。最近，他曾是 GameStop（股票代码：GME）的早期看涨者，但在 2020 年第四季度，在围绕原始备忘录股票的狂热兴起之前，他获利了结。现在，他警告说，这场热潮将以泪水告终。</blockquote></p><p> “I don’t know when meme stocks such as this will crash, but we probably do not have to wait too long, as I believe the retail crowd is fully invested in this theme, and Wall Street has jumped on the coattails,” he told Connor in an email. “We’re running out of new money available to jump on the bandwagon.”</p><p><blockquote>“他在一封电子邮件中告诉康纳：”我不知道像这样的备忘录股票什么时候会崩盘，但我们可能不用等太久，因为我相信零售人群已经完全投入到这个主题中，华尔街也纷纷效仿。“我们已经没有新的资金可以赶上潮流了。”</blockquote></p><p> The Robinhood offering wouldn’t be the first stock sale that could be a top-of-the-market event. Back in mid-2007,<i>Barron’s</i>Andrew Bary calledthe IPO ofBlackstone Group(BX) precisely that, just weeks before concerns about excesses of subprime lending rumbled through the global money markets and months before theDow Jones Industrial Averagepeaked the following October.</p><p><blockquote>Robinhood 的发行并不是第一次可能成为市场顶级事件的股票发售。早在2007年年中，<i>巴伦</i>安德鲁·巴里 (Andrew Bary) 正是这样称呼黑石集团 (BX) 的 IPO，就在对过度次级贷款的担忧席卷全球货币市场的几周前，以及道琼斯工业平均指数在次年 10 月达到峰值的几个月前。</blockquote></p><p> And who could forget the parade of wacky IPOs in the late 1990s that presaged the potential of the internet, but lacked earnings or revenue or even a viable business plan? By March 2000,<i>Barron’s</i>published itsseminal cover storyrevealing that these dot-com darlings were rapidly burning cash. That very month marked theNasdaq Composite’speak; the index would fall nearly 80% by October 2002.</p><p><blockquote>谁能忘记20世纪90年代末古怪的IPO游行，这些IPO预示着互联网的潜力，但缺乏盈利或收入，甚至缺乏可行的商业计划？到2000年3月，<i>巴伦</i>发表了开创性的封面故事，揭示了这些网络宠儿正在迅速烧钱。就在那个月，纳斯达克综合指数开始发声；到2002年10月，该指数将下降近80%。</blockquote></p><p> While Burry warns of a crash in meme stocks from their vastly elevated levels, which some of the companies have exploited by issuing richly valued shares, the overall market—now trading at about 21.5 times estimated earnings for the next 12 months—hasn’t approached the bubble levels of past cycles. But surveys of market strategists and institutional investors see little upside, with year-end targets averaging around 4200 on theS&amp;P 500—shy of Thursday’s close of 4319.</p><p><blockquote>虽然伯里警告说，备忘录股票可能会从大幅上涨的水平崩盘，一些公司利用了这一水平发行了高估值股票，但整体市场--目前的交易价格约为未来 12 个月预计市盈率的 21.5 倍--尚未接近过去周期的泡沫水平。但市场策略师和机构投资者的调查认为上涨空间不大，标准普尔 500 指数的年终目标平均约为 4200 点，低于周四收盘价的 4319 点。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> And while it’s always dangerous to say this, it<i>is</i>different this time around from 2000 and 2008. Ahead of crashes in those years, the Federal Reserve had been tightening policy for some time, resulting in a flat-to-negatively sloped yield curve. Shorter-term Treasury yields were pushed above longer-term ones, leading the bond market to predict that the economy was headed for the rocks.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这么说总是很危险，但<i>是</i>这次与2000年和2008年不同。在那些年的崩盘之前，美联储已经收紧政策一段时间了，导致收益率曲线从平坦到负倾斜。短期国债收益率被推高于长期国债收益率，导致债券市场预测经济将陷入困境。</blockquote></p><p> Now, in contrast, the Fed has only begun talking about talking about reducing its massive purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities. That would be preparation for the initial liftoff of the Fed’s key federal-funds target rate, currently in a rock-bottom 0% to 0.25% range, in 2022 at the earliest and maybe not until 2023.</p><p><blockquote>现在，相比之下，美联储才刚刚开始谈论减少对国债和机构抵押贷款支持证券的大规模购买。这将为美联储的主要联邦基金目标利率最早在 2022 年首次上调做准备，目前该利率处于 0% 至 0.25% 的最低区间，可能要到 2023 年。</blockquote></p><p> The yield curve has flattened a bit in the past three months, with thespread between the two- and 10-year notenarrowing to 1.23 percentage points (still a sign of an accommodative policy), from 1.59 points on March 29, according to the St. Louis Fed.</p><p><blockquote>根据圣路易斯联储的数据，过去三个月收益率曲线有所趋平，两年期和十年期国债之间的利差从 3 月 29 日的 1.59 个百分点收窄至 1.23 个百分点（这仍然是宽松政策的迹象）。</blockquote></p><p> But there is also a psychological element at play in any market frenzy. “Most investors also seem to view the stock market as a force of nature itself. They do not fully realize that they themselves, as a group, determine the level of the market,” Nobel laureate Robert Shiller wrote in his now-classic book<i>Irrational Exuberance</i>.</p><p><blockquote>但任何市场狂热也有心理因素在起作用。“大多数投资者似乎也将股市视为一种自然力量。他们没有完全意识到，作为一个群体，他们自己决定着市场的水平，”诺贝尔奖获得者罗伯特·席勒在他如今已成为经典著作的中心人物。<i>非理性繁荣</i>.</blockquote></p><p> “In short, the price level is driven to a certain extent by a self-fulfilling prophecy, based on similar hunches held by a vast cross-section of large and small investors and reinforced by news media that are often content to ratify this investor-induced conventional wisdom.”</p><p><blockquote>“简而言之，价格水平在某种程度上是由一个自我实现的预言推动的，这个预言是基于广大大小投资者持有的类似预感，并得到了新闻媒体的强化，而新闻媒体往往满足于认可这种投资者诱导的传统智慧。”</blockquote></p><p> Readers can weigh the relevance of the point about traders’ hunches to the Robinhood IPO. As for the latter statement regarding the media, we demur; contrary opinion rather than conventional wisdom has been<i>Barron’s</i>credo in the century since its founding.</p><p><blockquote>读者可以权衡交易员的预感与 Robinhood IPO 的相关性。至于后一种关于媒体的说法，我们表示反对；相反的意见而不是传统的智慧<i>巴伦</i>信条自成立以来的一个世纪。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Robinhood’s IPO Could Be a Sign the Stock Market Has Peaked<blockquote>Robinhood 的 IPO 可能是股市见顶的标志</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRobinhood’s IPO Could Be a Sign the Stock Market Has Peaked<blockquote>Robinhood 的 IPO 可能是股市见顶的标志</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barron's</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-03 10:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Nothing succeeds like excess, as the old quip goes. Until it doesn’t, which has been the distinguishing aspect of market cycles forever and, most dramatically, in this century. Unlike last year’s pandemic-induced paroxysm, the 2000 bursting of the dot-com bubble and the 2008 financial crisis were marked by initial public offerings by companies eager to seize the moment—and investors’ money.</p><p><blockquote>正如一句老话所说，没有什么比过度更成功了。直到它消失，这一直是市场周期的显著特点，最引人注目的是，在本世纪，这一直是市场周期的显著特点。与去年大流行病引发的爆发不同，2000 年网络泡沫破裂和 2008 年金融危机的标志是急于抓住时机和投资者资金的公司进行首次公开募股。</blockquote></p><p> All of which is prologue to what could shape up as this cycle’s bell-ringing event, theinitial public offering of Robinhood, the online broker that pioneered zero commissions and hooked a new generation on investing and trading. Thepaperwork was filedwith the SEC this past week. Financial details about the upstart that purports to democratize investing (and, in the process, was hit with a record$70 million fine by Finra, the brokerage business’s self-regulatory body) are discussedhere, but a few salient points are buried deep in the S-1 filing.</p><p><blockquote>所有这一切都将成为本周期敲钟事件的序幕--在线经纪商 Robinhood 的首次公开募股。该文件已于上周提交给美国证券交易委员会。这里讨论了这家声称要实现投资民主化的新贵（在此过程中，经纪业务的自律机构 Finra 对其处以创纪录的 7000 万美元罚款）的财务细节，但 S-1 文件中深埋在了几个要点之中。</blockquote></p><p> Customer assets more than quadrupled, to $80.9 billion, on March 31 from the total a year earlier, with the lion’s share—some $65.1 billion—accounted for by equities. Options comprised a relatively small $2 billion in assets, but generated nearly half ($197.9 million) of the March quarter’s $420.4 million in transactions revenue. Stocks produced $133.3 million in revenue, even though assets in equities were 40 times as large as those in options. Revenue from cryptocurrencies totaled $87.6 million, with customers’ crypto assets totaling $11.6 billion.</p><p><blockquote>截至 3 月 31 日，客户资产比去年同期翻了两番多，达到 809 亿美元，其中最大的份额--约 651 亿美元--来自股票。期权的资产规模相对较小，只有 20 亿美元，但却创造了 3 月份季度 4.204 亿美元交易收入的近一半（1.979 亿美元）。尽管股票资产是期权资产的 40 倍，但股票仍产生了 1.333 亿美元的收入。加密货币收入总计 8760 万美元，客户加密资产总计 116 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> While Robinhood makes much of opening the market to neophyte investors with limited means by letting them buy fractional shares of their favorite stocks, that’s not its biggest business. Instead, it’s speculative options trading, which exploded early this year especially among the YOLO (You Only Live Once) crowd willing to stake a few bucks on cheap, about-to-expire calls of stocks talked up on Reddit.</p><p><blockquote>虽然 Robinhood 通过让资金有限的新手投资者购买自己喜欢的股票的部分股份，向他们开放市场，但这并不是它最大的业务。相反，投机性期权交易在今年年初呈爆炸式增长，尤其是在 YOLO（You Only Live Once）人群中，他们愿意在 Reddit 上热议的廉价、即将到期的股票评级上下注几美元。</blockquote></p><p> There are signs that the frenzied trading, which peaked during the winter, has eased with the reopening of the economy and the return to the prepandemic normal (and with it an uptick in Covid cases after a steady decline). Trading crypto might be simpler on a brokerage platform like Robinhood, but wasn’t the advantage of DeFi (decentralized finance) supposed to be that intermediaries wouldn’t be needed at all?</p><p><blockquote>有迹象表明，随着经济重新开放和恢复到大流行前的正常状态（新冠病例在稳步下降后有所上升），冬季达到顶峰的疯狂交易已经有所缓解。在 Robinhood 这样的经纪平台上交易加密货币可能会更简单，但 DeFi（去中心化金融）的优势不就是根本不需要中介机构吗？</blockquote></p><p> Bulls on Robinhood would be betting on continued growth of its independent trading model, rather than investors using passive funds through advisors, which the filing derides. The broker pledged to reserve up to 35% of its IPO for its customers, who are apt to be enthusiastic buyers and, more importantly, hold onto them with “diamond hands” through volatile times.</p><p><blockquote>Robinhood 的看涨者将押注于其独立交易模式的持续增长，而不是投资者通过顾问使用被动资金，文件对此嗤之以鼻。该券商承诺将为其客户预留高达 35% 的 IPO 资金，这些客户往往是热情的买家，更重要的是，他们会在动荡时期用 “钻石手 ”抓住他们。</blockquote></p><p> And, indeed, turbulence, or worse, could lie ahead,Michael Burry told our colleague Connor Smith. Burry, a key player in both the book and film versions of<i>The Big Short</i>, won a fortune by betting against the housing market before the subprime mortgage collapse. More recently, he was an early bull onGamestop(ticker: GME), but took his profits in 2020’s fourth quarter before the frenzy around the original meme stock took off. Now he’s warning that the craze will end in tears.</p><p><blockquote>迈克尔·伯里告诉我们的同事康纳·史密斯，事实上，未来可能会出现动荡，甚至更糟的情况。伯里，书籍和电影版中的关键人物<i>大空头</i>在次级抵押贷款崩溃之前，他通过做空房地产市场赢得了一大笔钱。最近，他曾是 GameStop（股票代码：GME）的早期看涨者，但在 2020 年第四季度，在围绕原始备忘录股票的狂热兴起之前，他获利了结。现在，他警告说，这场热潮将以泪水告终。</blockquote></p><p> “I don’t know when meme stocks such as this will crash, but we probably do not have to wait too long, as I believe the retail crowd is fully invested in this theme, and Wall Street has jumped on the coattails,” he told Connor in an email. “We’re running out of new money available to jump on the bandwagon.”</p><p><blockquote>“他在一封电子邮件中告诉康纳：”我不知道像这样的备忘录股票什么时候会崩盘，但我们可能不用等太久，因为我相信零售人群已经完全投入到这个主题中，华尔街也纷纷效仿。“我们已经没有新的资金可以赶上潮流了。”</blockquote></p><p> The Robinhood offering wouldn’t be the first stock sale that could be a top-of-the-market event. Back in mid-2007,<i>Barron’s</i>Andrew Bary calledthe IPO ofBlackstone Group(BX) precisely that, just weeks before concerns about excesses of subprime lending rumbled through the global money markets and months before theDow Jones Industrial Averagepeaked the following October.</p><p><blockquote>Robinhood 的发行并不是第一次可能成为市场顶级事件的股票发售。早在2007年年中，<i>巴伦</i>安德鲁·巴里 (Andrew Bary) 正是这样称呼黑石集团 (BX) 的 IPO，就在对过度次级贷款的担忧席卷全球货币市场的几周前，以及道琼斯工业平均指数在次年 10 月达到峰值的几个月前。</blockquote></p><p> And who could forget the parade of wacky IPOs in the late 1990s that presaged the potential of the internet, but lacked earnings or revenue or even a viable business plan? By March 2000,<i>Barron’s</i>published itsseminal cover storyrevealing that these dot-com darlings were rapidly burning cash. That very month marked theNasdaq Composite’speak; the index would fall nearly 80% by October 2002.</p><p><blockquote>谁能忘记20世纪90年代末古怪的IPO游行，这些IPO预示着互联网的潜力，但缺乏盈利或收入，甚至缺乏可行的商业计划？到2000年3月，<i>巴伦</i>发表了开创性的封面故事，揭示了这些网络宠儿正在迅速烧钱。就在那个月，纳斯达克综合指数开始发声；到2002年10月，该指数将下降近80%。</blockquote></p><p> While Burry warns of a crash in meme stocks from their vastly elevated levels, which some of the companies have exploited by issuing richly valued shares, the overall market—now trading at about 21.5 times estimated earnings for the next 12 months—hasn’t approached the bubble levels of past cycles. But surveys of market strategists and institutional investors see little upside, with year-end targets averaging around 4200 on theS&amp;P 500—shy of Thursday’s close of 4319.</p><p><blockquote>虽然伯里警告说，备忘录股票可能会从大幅上涨的水平崩盘，一些公司利用了这一水平发行了高估值股票，但整体市场--目前的交易价格约为未来 12 个月预计市盈率的 21.5 倍--尚未接近过去周期的泡沫水平。但市场策略师和机构投资者的调查认为上涨空间不大，标准普尔 500 指数的年终目标平均约为 4200 点，低于周四收盘价的 4319 点。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> And while it’s always dangerous to say this, it<i>is</i>different this time around from 2000 and 2008. Ahead of crashes in those years, the Federal Reserve had been tightening policy for some time, resulting in a flat-to-negatively sloped yield curve. Shorter-term Treasury yields were pushed above longer-term ones, leading the bond market to predict that the economy was headed for the rocks.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这么说总是很危险，但<i>是</i>这次与2000年和2008年不同。在那些年的崩盘之前，美联储已经收紧政策一段时间了，导致收益率曲线从平坦到负倾斜。短期国债收益率被推高于长期国债收益率，导致债券市场预测经济将陷入困境。</blockquote></p><p> Now, in contrast, the Fed has only begun talking about talking about reducing its massive purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities. That would be preparation for the initial liftoff of the Fed’s key federal-funds target rate, currently in a rock-bottom 0% to 0.25% range, in 2022 at the earliest and maybe not until 2023.</p><p><blockquote>现在，相比之下，美联储才刚刚开始谈论减少对国债和机构抵押贷款支持证券的大规模购买。这将为美联储的主要联邦基金目标利率最早在 2022 年首次上调做准备，目前该利率处于 0% 至 0.25% 的最低区间，可能要到 2023 年。</blockquote></p><p> The yield curve has flattened a bit in the past three months, with thespread between the two- and 10-year notenarrowing to 1.23 percentage points (still a sign of an accommodative policy), from 1.59 points on March 29, according to the St. Louis Fed.</p><p><blockquote>根据圣路易斯联储的数据，过去三个月收益率曲线有所趋平，两年期和十年期国债之间的利差从 3 月 29 日的 1.59 个百分点收窄至 1.23 个百分点（这仍然是宽松政策的迹象）。</blockquote></p><p> But there is also a psychological element at play in any market frenzy. “Most investors also seem to view the stock market as a force of nature itself. They do not fully realize that they themselves, as a group, determine the level of the market,” Nobel laureate Robert Shiller wrote in his now-classic book<i>Irrational Exuberance</i>.</p><p><blockquote>但任何市场狂热也有心理因素在起作用。“大多数投资者似乎也将股市视为一种自然力量。他们没有完全意识到，作为一个群体，他们自己决定着市场的水平，”诺贝尔奖获得者罗伯特·席勒在他如今已成为经典著作的中心人物。<i>非理性繁荣</i>.</blockquote></p><p> “In short, the price level is driven to a certain extent by a self-fulfilling prophecy, based on similar hunches held by a vast cross-section of large and small investors and reinforced by news media that are often content to ratify this investor-induced conventional wisdom.”</p><p><blockquote>“简而言之，价格水平在某种程度上是由一个自我实现的预言推动的，这个预言是基于广大大小投资者持有的类似预感，并得到了新闻媒体的强化，而新闻媒体往往满足于认可这种投资者诱导的传统智慧。”</blockquote></p><p> Readers can weigh the relevance of the point about traders’ hunches to the Robinhood IPO. As for the latter statement regarding the media, we demur; contrary opinion rather than conventional wisdom has been<i>Barron’s</i>credo in the century since its founding.</p><p><blockquote>读者可以权衡交易员的预感与 Robinhood IPO 的相关性。至于后一种关于媒体的说法，我们表示反对；相反的意见而不是传统的智慧<i>巴伦</i>信条自成立以来的一个世纪。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/analyst-explains-why-netflix-should-sell-ads-51624987059\">Barron's</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/analyst-explains-why-netflix-should-sell-ads-51624987059","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1114445293","content_text":"Nothing succeeds like excess, as the old quip goes. Until it doesn’t, which has been the distinguishing aspect of market cycles forever and, most dramatically, in this century. Unlike last year’s pandemic-induced paroxysm, the 2000 bursting of the dot-com bubble and the 2008 financial crisis were marked by initial public offerings by companies eager to seize the moment—and investors’ money.\nAll of which is prologue to what could shape up as this cycle’s bell-ringing event, theinitial public offering of Robinhood, the online broker that pioneered zero commissions and hooked a new generation on investing and trading. Thepaperwork was filedwith the SEC this past week. Financial details about the upstart that purports to democratize investing (and, in the process, was hit with a record$70 million fine by Finra, the brokerage business’s self-regulatory body) are discussedhere, but a few salient points are buried deep in the S-1 filing.\nCustomer assets more than quadrupled, to $80.9 billion, on March 31 from the total a year earlier, with the lion’s share—some $65.1 billion—accounted for by equities. Options comprised a relatively small $2 billion in assets, but generated nearly half ($197.9 million) of the March quarter’s $420.4 million in transactions revenue. Stocks produced $133.3 million in revenue, even though assets in equities were 40 times as large as those in options. Revenue from cryptocurrencies totaled $87.6 million, with customers’ crypto assets totaling $11.6 billion.\nWhile Robinhood makes much of opening the market to neophyte investors with limited means by letting them buy fractional shares of their favorite stocks, that’s not its biggest business. Instead, it’s speculative options trading, which exploded early this year especially among the YOLO (You Only Live Once) crowd willing to stake a few bucks on cheap, about-to-expire calls of stocks talked up on Reddit.\nThere are signs that the frenzied trading, which peaked during the winter, has eased with the reopening of the economy and the return to the prepandemic normal (and with it an uptick in Covid cases after a steady decline). Trading crypto might be simpler on a brokerage platform like Robinhood, but wasn’t the advantage of DeFi (decentralized finance) supposed to be that intermediaries wouldn’t be needed at all?\nBulls on Robinhood would be betting on continued growth of its independent trading model, rather than investors using passive funds through advisors, which the filing derides. The broker pledged to reserve up to 35% of its IPO for its customers, who are apt to be enthusiastic buyers and, more importantly, hold onto them with “diamond hands” through volatile times.\nAnd, indeed, turbulence, or worse, could lie ahead,Michael Burry told our colleague Connor Smith. Burry, a key player in both the book and film versions ofThe Big Short, won a fortune by betting against the housing market before the subprime mortgage collapse. More recently, he was an early bull onGamestop(ticker: GME), but took his profits in 2020’s fourth quarter before the frenzy around the original meme stock took off. Now he’s warning that the craze will end in tears.\n“I don’t know when meme stocks such as this will crash, but we probably do not have to wait too long, as I believe the retail crowd is fully invested in this theme, and Wall Street has jumped on the coattails,” he told Connor in an email. “We’re running out of new money available to jump on the bandwagon.”\nThe Robinhood offering wouldn’t be the first stock sale that could be a top-of-the-market event. Back in mid-2007,Barron’sAndrew Bary calledthe IPO ofBlackstone Group(BX) precisely that, just weeks before concerns about excesses of subprime lending rumbled through the global money markets and months before theDow Jones Industrial Averagepeaked the following October.\nAnd who could forget the parade of wacky IPOs in the late 1990s that presaged the potential of the internet, but lacked earnings or revenue or even a viable business plan? By March 2000,Barron’spublished itsseminal cover storyrevealing that these dot-com darlings were rapidly burning cash. That very month marked theNasdaq Composite’speak; the index would fall nearly 80% by October 2002.\nWhile Burry warns of a crash in meme stocks from their vastly elevated levels, which some of the companies have exploited by issuing richly valued shares, the overall market—now trading at about 21.5 times estimated earnings for the next 12 months—hasn’t approached the bubble levels of past cycles. But surveys of market strategists and institutional investors see little upside, with year-end targets averaging around 4200 on theS&P 500—shy of Thursday’s close of 4319.\nAnd while it’s always dangerous to say this, itisdifferent this time around from 2000 and 2008. Ahead of crashes in those years, the Federal Reserve had been tightening policy for some time, resulting in a flat-to-negatively sloped yield curve. Shorter-term Treasury yields were pushed above longer-term ones, leading the bond market to predict that the economy was headed for the rocks.\nNow, in contrast, the Fed has only begun talking about talking about reducing its massive purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities. That would be preparation for the initial liftoff of the Fed’s key federal-funds target rate, currently in a rock-bottom 0% to 0.25% range, in 2022 at the earliest and maybe not until 2023.\nThe yield curve has flattened a bit in the past three months, with thespread between the two- and 10-year notenarrowing to 1.23 percentage points (still a sign of an accommodative policy), from 1.59 points on March 29, according to the St. Louis Fed.\nBut there is also a psychological element at play in any market frenzy. “Most investors also seem to view the stock market as a force of nature itself. They do not fully realize that they themselves, as a group, determine the level of the market,” Nobel laureate Robert Shiller wrote in his now-classic bookIrrational Exuberance.\n“In short, the price level is driven to a certain extent by a self-fulfilling prophecy, based on similar hunches held by a vast cross-section of large and small investors and reinforced by news media that are often content to ratify this investor-induced conventional wisdom.”\nReaders can weigh the relevance of the point about traders’ hunches to the Robinhood IPO. As for the latter statement regarding the media, we demur; contrary opinion rather than conventional wisdom has beenBarron’scredo in the century since its founding.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":727,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":152763720,"gmtCreate":1625357779060,"gmtModify":1631887626741,"author":{"id":"3576849200483737","authorId":"3576849200483737","name":"Fuzzyfuzzy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83fbe5cf3fa66c4ec89abe62d2856950","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576849200483737","idStr":"3576849200483737"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Leaving a comment","listText":"Leaving a comment","text":"Leaving a comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/152763720","repostId":"1107675312","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1107675312","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625276956,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1107675312?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-03 09:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Stock Gets No Help From Record Deliveries. Here’s What Wall Street Thinks.<blockquote>特斯拉股票没有从创纪录的交付中得到任何帮助。以下是华尔街的看法。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107675312","media":"Barron's","summary":"Tesla posted record deliveries for the second quarter,but investors shrugged.The latest numberswere closeto Wall Street estimates, and mark the fourth straight quarter of record deliveries for the rapidly growing EV pioneer. Still, Tesla bulls on Wall Street remained enthused.Tesla delivered 201,250 cars in the second quarter, but its stock was down about 0.3% in recent trading, after bobbing up and down Friday. TheS&P 500andDow Jones Industrial Averagewere up about 0.6% and 0.4% respectively.Ba","content":"<p>Tesla posted record deliveries for the second quarter,but investors shrugged.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉公布了创纪录的第二季度交付量， 但投资者耸耸肩。</blockquote></p><p> The latest numberswere closeto Wall Street estimates, and mark the fourth straight quarter of record deliveries for the rapidly growing EV pioneer. Still, Tesla bulls on Wall Street remained enthused.</p><p><blockquote>最新数据接近华尔街的预期，标志着这家快速增长的电动汽车先驱连续第四个季度交付量创纪录。尽管如此，华尔街的特斯拉看涨者仍然热情高涨。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla&nbsp;delivered 201,250 cars in the&nbsp;second quarter, but its stock was down about 0.3% in recent trading, after bobbing up and down Friday. TheS&amp;P 500andDow Jones Industrial Averagewere up about 0.6% and 0.4% respectively.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉第二季度交付了 201,250 辆汽车，但其股价在周五上下波动后，在最近的交易中下跌了约 0.3%。标准普尔500指数和道琼斯工业平均指数分别上涨约0.6%和0.4%。</blockquote></p><p> RBC analystJoseph Spakwrote deliveries were a little better than the Wall Street consensus, adding “encouragingly, production outpaced deliveries.” That shows Spak that Tesla (ticker: TSLA) is successfully managing the through semiconductor supply constraints.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大皇家银行分析师约瑟夫-斯帕克（Joseph Spak）写道，交付量略高于华尔街的共识，并补充说 “令人鼓舞的是，产量超过了交付量”。这表明特斯拉（股票代码：TSLA）正在成功管理半导体供应限制。</blockquote></p><p> A globalsemiconductor shortagehas affected the entire auto industry. Benchmark analystMike Ward, for instance, believes it reduced North American auto production by about 1 million light vehicles in the first half of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>全球半导体短缺影响了整个汽车行业。例如，基准分析师迈克·沃德 (Mike Ward) 认为，2021 年上半年北美汽车产量将减少约 100 万辆轻型汽车产量。</blockquote></p><p> Spak rates Tesla shares Hold and has a $725 price target for shares. Ward covers auto stocks, but doesn’t cover Tesla.</p><p><blockquote>Spak 持有特斯拉股票，目标股价为 725 美元。沃德报道汽车股，但不报道特斯拉。</blockquote></p><p> Baird analystBen Kallowrote Tesla’s results showed “operational prowess,” as the company managed to navigate the chip shortage and produce another quarterly delivery record. “We are increasingly confident in our [second half] delivery assumptions,” he writes. “We estimate that underlying demand for Tesla products remains strong with S/X, Cybertruck, and semi deliveries remaining tailwinds.”</p><p><blockquote>Baird 分析师 Ben Kallow 写道，特斯拉的业绩显示了 “运营实力”，该公司成功应对了芯片短缺问题，并创造了又一个季度交付记录。“他写道：”我们对[下半年]的交付假设越来越有信心。“我们估计，特斯拉产品的潜在需求依然强劲，S/X、Cybertruck 和 semi 的交付仍是推动力。”</blockquote></p><p> He estimates Tesla will deliver about 868,000 vehicles in 2021, above the Wall Street consensus at about 855,000 to 865,000 vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>他估计特斯拉将在 2021 年交付约 868,000 辆汽车，高于华尔街共识的约 855,000 至 865,000 辆汽车。</blockquote></p><p> Wedbush analystDan Ivesis even more optimistic and believes Tesla will deliver closer to 900,000 vehicles in 2021. He called the quarterly figure “impressive.”</p><p><blockquote>Wedbush 分析师 Dan Ives 更加乐观，认为特斯拉将在 2021 年交付近 90 万辆汽车。他称季度数据 “令人印象深刻”。</blockquote></p><p> New Street ResearchPierre Ferragualso expects Tesla deliveries to accelerate in the second half of 2021. He points out that Tesla produced about 204,000 Model 3 and Y vehicles in the second quarter, indicating that production in Shanghai is ramping higher.</p><p><blockquote>New Street ResearchPierre Ferragual 还预计特斯拉交付将在 2021 年下半年加速。他指出，特斯拉第二季度生产了约20.4万辆Model 3和Y汽车，表明上海地区的产量正在上升。</blockquote></p><p> Ferragu, Ives, and Kallo are all Tesla bulls, rating shares Buy. Ferragu’s target price for the stock is $900, while Ives’s target price is $1,000. Kallo’s is the lowest of the three at $736.</p><p><blockquote>Ferragu、Ives 和 Kallo 都是特斯拉的看涨者，给予股票买入评级。Ferragu 对该股的目标价为 900 美元，而 Ives 的目标价为 1000 美元。Kallo's 是三家中最低的，为 736 美元。</blockquote></p><p> GLJ analystGordon Johnsonis a Tesla bear. He rates shares Sell and has a Street low price target of $67, and was unimpressed by deliveries. He said Tesla critics will focus on the fact Tesla made more cars than it delivered in the quarter, unlike the first quarter quarterof 2021and the fourth quarterof 2020. Deliveries and production, of course, should closely match over time.</p><p><blockquote>GLJ 分析师戈登·约翰逊和特斯拉·贝尔。他将股票评级为卖出，并将街头最低目标价定为 67 美元，并且对交付情况不以为然。他表示，特斯拉批评者将关注这样一个事实，即特斯拉本季度生产的汽车多于交付的汽车，这与 2021 年第一季度和 2020 年第四季度不同。当然，随着时间的推移，交付和生产应该紧密匹配。</blockquote></p><p> Next up for analysts, after digesting deliveries, will be earnings, due out in late July. Wall Street expects about 95 cents in per-share earnings. Tesla reported 93 cents in per-share earnings for the first quarter of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>分析师在消化交付数据后，接下来将是将于 7 月下旬发布的财报。华尔街预计每股收益约为 95 美分。特斯拉公布 2021 年第一季度每股收益为 93 美分。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla’s last record quarterly operating profit came in the third quarter of 2020 when it reported a profit of $809 million. For the second quarter of 2021, analysts are looking for about $961 million–another record.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉上一次创纪录的季度营业利润是在 2020 年第三季度，当时该公司公布的利润为 8.09 亿美元。对于 2021 年第二季度，分析师预计将获得约 9.61 亿美元的收入，再创历史新高。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Stock Gets No Help From Record Deliveries. Here’s What Wall Street Thinks.<blockquote>特斯拉股票没有从创纪录的交付中得到任何帮助。以下是华尔街的看法。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Stock Gets No Help From Record Deliveries. Here’s What Wall Street Thinks.<blockquote>特斯拉股票没有从创纪录的交付中得到任何帮助。以下是华尔街的看法。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barron's</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-03 09:49</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Tesla posted record deliveries for the second quarter,but investors shrugged.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉公布了创纪录的第二季度交付量， 但投资者耸耸肩。</blockquote></p><p> The latest numberswere closeto Wall Street estimates, and mark the fourth straight quarter of record deliveries for the rapidly growing EV pioneer. Still, Tesla bulls on Wall Street remained enthused.</p><p><blockquote>最新数据接近华尔街的预期，标志着这家快速增长的电动汽车先驱连续第四个季度交付量创纪录。尽管如此，华尔街的特斯拉看涨者仍然热情高涨。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla&nbsp;delivered 201,250 cars in the&nbsp;second quarter, but its stock was down about 0.3% in recent trading, after bobbing up and down Friday. TheS&amp;P 500andDow Jones Industrial Averagewere up about 0.6% and 0.4% respectively.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉第二季度交付了 201,250 辆汽车，但其股价在周五上下波动后，在最近的交易中下跌了约 0.3%。标准普尔500指数和道琼斯工业平均指数分别上涨约0.6%和0.4%。</blockquote></p><p> RBC analystJoseph Spakwrote deliveries were a little better than the Wall Street consensus, adding “encouragingly, production outpaced deliveries.” That shows Spak that Tesla (ticker: TSLA) is successfully managing the through semiconductor supply constraints.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大皇家银行分析师约瑟夫-斯帕克（Joseph Spak）写道，交付量略高于华尔街的共识，并补充说 “令人鼓舞的是，产量超过了交付量”。这表明特斯拉（股票代码：TSLA）正在成功管理半导体供应限制。</blockquote></p><p> A globalsemiconductor shortagehas affected the entire auto industry. Benchmark analystMike Ward, for instance, believes it reduced North American auto production by about 1 million light vehicles in the first half of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>全球半导体短缺影响了整个汽车行业。例如，基准分析师迈克·沃德 (Mike Ward) 认为，2021 年上半年北美汽车产量将减少约 100 万辆轻型汽车产量。</blockquote></p><p> Spak rates Tesla shares Hold and has a $725 price target for shares. Ward covers auto stocks, but doesn’t cover Tesla.</p><p><blockquote>Spak 持有特斯拉股票，目标股价为 725 美元。沃德报道汽车股，但不报道特斯拉。</blockquote></p><p> Baird analystBen Kallowrote Tesla’s results showed “operational prowess,” as the company managed to navigate the chip shortage and produce another quarterly delivery record. “We are increasingly confident in our [second half] delivery assumptions,” he writes. “We estimate that underlying demand for Tesla products remains strong with S/X, Cybertruck, and semi deliveries remaining tailwinds.”</p><p><blockquote>Baird 分析师 Ben Kallow 写道，特斯拉的业绩显示了 “运营实力”，该公司成功应对了芯片短缺问题，并创造了又一个季度交付记录。“他写道：”我们对[下半年]的交付假设越来越有信心。“我们估计，特斯拉产品的潜在需求依然强劲，S/X、Cybertruck 和 semi 的交付仍是推动力。”</blockquote></p><p> He estimates Tesla will deliver about 868,000 vehicles in 2021, above the Wall Street consensus at about 855,000 to 865,000 vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>他估计特斯拉将在 2021 年交付约 868,000 辆汽车，高于华尔街共识的约 855,000 至 865,000 辆汽车。</blockquote></p><p> Wedbush analystDan Ivesis even more optimistic and believes Tesla will deliver closer to 900,000 vehicles in 2021. He called the quarterly figure “impressive.”</p><p><blockquote>Wedbush 分析师 Dan Ives 更加乐观，认为特斯拉将在 2021 年交付近 90 万辆汽车。他称季度数据 “令人印象深刻”。</blockquote></p><p> New Street ResearchPierre Ferragualso expects Tesla deliveries to accelerate in the second half of 2021. He points out that Tesla produced about 204,000 Model 3 and Y vehicles in the second quarter, indicating that production in Shanghai is ramping higher.</p><p><blockquote>New Street ResearchPierre Ferragual 还预计特斯拉交付将在 2021 年下半年加速。他指出，特斯拉第二季度生产了约20.4万辆Model 3和Y汽车，表明上海地区的产量正在上升。</blockquote></p><p> Ferragu, Ives, and Kallo are all Tesla bulls, rating shares Buy. Ferragu’s target price for the stock is $900, while Ives’s target price is $1,000. Kallo’s is the lowest of the three at $736.</p><p><blockquote>Ferragu、Ives 和 Kallo 都是特斯拉的看涨者，给予股票买入评级。Ferragu 对该股的目标价为 900 美元，而 Ives 的目标价为 1000 美元。Kallo's 是三家中最低的，为 736 美元。</blockquote></p><p> GLJ analystGordon Johnsonis a Tesla bear. He rates shares Sell and has a Street low price target of $67, and was unimpressed by deliveries. He said Tesla critics will focus on the fact Tesla made more cars than it delivered in the quarter, unlike the first quarter quarterof 2021and the fourth quarterof 2020. Deliveries and production, of course, should closely match over time.</p><p><blockquote>GLJ 分析师戈登·约翰逊和特斯拉·贝尔。他将股票评级为卖出，并将街头最低目标价定为 67 美元，并且对交付情况不以为然。他表示，特斯拉批评者将关注这样一个事实，即特斯拉本季度生产的汽车多于交付的汽车，这与 2021 年第一季度和 2020 年第四季度不同。当然，随着时间的推移，交付和生产应该紧密匹配。</blockquote></p><p> Next up for analysts, after digesting deliveries, will be earnings, due out in late July. Wall Street expects about 95 cents in per-share earnings. Tesla reported 93 cents in per-share earnings for the first quarter of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>分析师在消化交付数据后，接下来将是将于 7 月下旬发布的财报。华尔街预计每股收益约为 95 美分。特斯拉公布 2021 年第一季度每股收益为 93 美分。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla’s last record quarterly operating profit came in the third quarter of 2020 when it reported a profit of $809 million. For the second quarter of 2021, analysts are looking for about $961 million–another record.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉上一次创纪录的季度营业利润是在 2020 年第三季度，当时该公司公布的利润为 8.09 亿美元。对于 2021 年第二季度，分析师预计将获得约 9.61 亿美元的收入，再创历史新高。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-ev-deliveries-51625253495?siteid=yhoof2\">Barron's</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-ev-deliveries-51625253495?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107675312","content_text":"Tesla posted record deliveries for the second quarter,but investors shrugged.\nThe latest numberswere closeto Wall Street estimates, and mark the fourth straight quarter of record deliveries for the rapidly growing EV pioneer. Still, Tesla bulls on Wall Street remained enthused.\nTesla delivered 201,250 cars in the second quarter, but its stock was down about 0.3% in recent trading, after bobbing up and down Friday. TheS&P 500andDow Jones Industrial Averagewere up about 0.6% and 0.4% respectively.\nRBC analystJoseph Spakwrote deliveries were a little better than the Wall Street consensus, adding “encouragingly, production outpaced deliveries.” That shows Spak that Tesla (ticker: TSLA) is successfully managing the through semiconductor supply constraints.\nA globalsemiconductor shortagehas affected the entire auto industry. Benchmark analystMike Ward, for instance, believes it reduced North American auto production by about 1 million light vehicles in the first half of 2021.\nSpak rates Tesla shares Hold and has a $725 price target for shares. Ward covers auto stocks, but doesn’t cover Tesla.\nBaird analystBen Kallowrote Tesla’s results showed “operational prowess,” as the company managed to navigate the chip shortage and produce another quarterly delivery record. “We are increasingly confident in our [second half] delivery assumptions,” he writes. “We estimate that underlying demand for Tesla products remains strong with S/X, Cybertruck, and semi deliveries remaining tailwinds.”\nHe estimates Tesla will deliver about 868,000 vehicles in 2021, above the Wall Street consensus at about 855,000 to 865,000 vehicles.\nWedbush analystDan Ivesis even more optimistic and believes Tesla will deliver closer to 900,000 vehicles in 2021. He called the quarterly figure “impressive.”\nNew Street ResearchPierre Ferragualso expects Tesla deliveries to accelerate in the second half of 2021. He points out that Tesla produced about 204,000 Model 3 and Y vehicles in the second quarter, indicating that production in Shanghai is ramping higher.\nFerragu, Ives, and Kallo are all Tesla bulls, rating shares Buy. Ferragu’s target price for the stock is $900, while Ives’s target price is $1,000. Kallo’s is the lowest of the three at $736.\nGLJ analystGordon Johnsonis a Tesla bear. He rates shares Sell and has a Street low price target of $67, and was unimpressed by deliveries. He said Tesla critics will focus on the fact Tesla made more cars than it delivered in the quarter, unlike the first quarter quarterof 2021and the fourth quarterof 2020. Deliveries and production, of course, should closely match over time.\nNext up for analysts, after digesting deliveries, will be earnings, due out in late July. Wall Street expects about 95 cents in per-share earnings. Tesla reported 93 cents in per-share earnings for the first quarter of 2021.\nTesla’s last record quarterly operating profit came in the third quarter of 2020 when it reported a profit of $809 million. For the second quarter of 2021, analysts are looking for about $961 million–another record.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":722,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":158633984,"gmtCreate":1625147221748,"gmtModify":1631887626755,"author":{"id":"3576849200483737","authorId":"3576849200483737","name":"Fuzzyfuzzy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83fbe5cf3fa66c4ec89abe62d2856950","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576849200483737","idStr":"3576849200483737"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Leave a comment, 5 likes","listText":"Leave a comment, 5 likes","text":"Leave a comment, 5 likes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/158633984","repostId":"1186720190","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":784,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":153251538,"gmtCreate":1625029243724,"gmtModify":1631887626768,"author":{"id":"3576849200483737","authorId":"3576849200483737","name":"Fuzzyfuzzy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83fbe5cf3fa66c4ec89abe62d2856950","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576849200483737","idStr":"3576849200483737"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hahshshshaha","listText":"Hahshshshaha","text":"Hahshshshaha","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/153251538","repostId":"2147551863","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1024,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":877905625,"gmtCreate":1637853433543,"gmtModify":1637853433543,"author":{"id":"3576849200483737","authorId":"3576849200483737","name":"Fuzzyfuzzy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83fbe5cf3fa66c4ec89abe62d2856950","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576849200483737","authorIdStr":"3576849200483737"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Leave a comment","listText":"Leave a comment","text":"Leave a comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/877905625","repostId":"1122037796","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122037796","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1637849010,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1122037796?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-25 22:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"7 stocks with the most Thanksgiving exposure, according to Bank of America<blockquote>根据美国银行的数据，感恩节风险敞口最大的 7 只股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122037796","media":"finance.yahoo","summary":"Thanksgiving feasts will likely draw larger crowds than last year and incur higher costs.\nA recent B","content":"<p>Thanksgiving feasts will likely draw larger crowds than last year and&nbsp;incur higher costs.</p><p><blockquote>感恩节盛宴可能会吸引比去年更多的人群，并产生更高的成本。</blockquote></p><p> A recent Bank of America note detailed which companies have the most exposure to the top holiday dishes amid supply chain bottlenecks, inflation, lingering COVID concerns, low inventories, and evolving consumer behaviors.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行最近的一份报告详细介绍了在供应链瓶颈、通货膨胀、挥之不去的新冠疫情担忧、低库存和不断变化的消费者行为的情况下，哪些公司最有可能接触到顶级节日菜肴。</blockquote></p><p> Those companies are Campbell's Soup Company (CPB), General Mills (GIS), The Kraft Heinz Company (KHC), Conagra Brands (CAG), Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL), McCormick &amp; Company (MKC), and The Duckhorn Portfolio, Inc. (NAPA).</p><p><blockquote>这些公司是金宝汤公司 (CPB)、通用磨坊 (GIS)、卡夫亨氏公司 (KHC)、康尼格拉品牌 (CAG)、荷美尔食品公司 (HRL)、麦考密克公司 (MKC) 和鸭角投资组合公司 (NAPA)。</blockquote></p><p> \"We looked at companies’ exposure to the top Thanksgiving dishes: turkey, stuffing, dinner rolls, gravy, green bean casserole, potatoes, mac &amp; cheese dessert and wine,\" the analysts stated. \"Overall CPB, GIS, KHC, CAG, MKC, HRL and NAPA are the most exposed. KHC and NAPA are our favorite stocks in this group.\"</p><p><blockquote>“分析师们说：”我们调查了各公司对感恩节顶级菜肴的接触情况： 火鸡、馅料、晚餐卷、肉汁、四季豆砂锅、土豆、通心粉和奶酪甜点和葡萄酒。“总体而言，CPB、GIS、KHC、CAG、MKC、HRL 和 NAPA 是暴露最多的。KHC 和 NAPA 是我们在该组中最喜欢的股票。”</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39aa902f366c0bd07e076520c33cdf52\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"409\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Key companies exposed to Thanksgiving meal trends. (Source: BofA)Thanksgiving 'center of the plate' items see more pricing power</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>暴露于感恩节大餐趋势的主要公司。（资料来源：美国银行）感恩节“盘子中心”项目看到更多定价权</span></p></blockquote></p><p> People appear to be gathering around the table again, the analysts stated, as data from social media conversations found mentions of \"vaccines\" on the rise while mentions of \"FaceTime,\" \"social distancing,\" and \"canceled\" declined. (\"Friendsgiving\" and \"day drinking\" also saw increases.)</p><p><blockquote>分析师表示，人们似乎再次聚集在桌子周围，因为社交媒体对话的数据发现，提及“疫苗”的人数有所增加，而提及“FaceTime”、“社交距离”和“取消”的人数有所下降。（“朋友聚会”和“白天喝酒”也有所增加。）</blockquote></p><p> And whether consumers opt for turkey or ham, mashed potatoes or marshmallow-topped sweet potatoes, traditional orplant-based options, they're likely to pay more with inflation hitting food prices.</p><p><blockquote>无论消费者选择火鸡还是火腿、土豆泥还是棉花糖甘薯，传统的还是基于植物的选择，他们都可能在通货膨胀冲击食品价格的情况下支付更多费用。</blockquote></p><p> The&nbsp;American Farm Bureau Thanksgiving cost index&nbsp;projects a 14% year-over-year increase for 2021, led by a 24% increase in turkey prices.</p><p><blockquote>美国农业局感恩节成本指数预计2021年将同比增长14%，其中火鸡价格上涨24%。</blockquote></p><p> “When you look at more of the center of the plate sort of food items, typically, there has not historically been a lot of pricing power,” Bryan Spillane, a senior food and beverage analyst at BofA Global Research, told Yahoo Finance Live (video above). “But what's unusual this year is that there has been. Food companies, in particular, began raising prices the middle of the year, and there's virtually been no elasticity.”</p><p><blockquote>“美国银行全球研究部（BofA Global Research）高级食品和饮料分析师布莱恩-斯皮兰（Bryan Spillane）告诉雅虎财经直播（上图视频）：”通常情况下，当你看到更多的盘子中央类型的食品时，历史上并没有太大的定价权。“但今年不同寻常的是，出现了这种情况。尤其是食品公司，在年中就开始提价，而且几乎没有弹性。”</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e60ff60917eb4db45a68c41bd19a337\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"529\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Frozen turkeys in Philadelphia, Wednesday, Nov. 17, 2021. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2021年11月17日，星期三，费城的冷冻火鸡。（美联社照片/马特·洛克）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> That said, Spillane added, consumer behavior is expected to change at some point.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，斯皮兰补充说，消费者行为预计会在某个时候发生变化。</blockquote></p><p> “Something that we're really watching as we move into next year is: At what point does the consumer begin to push back and do we begin to see some trading down or other behavior that demonstrates that consumers are feeling that pinch?” Spillane said.</p><p><blockquote>“进入明年，我们真正关注的是：消费者在什么时候开始反击，我们是否开始看到一些降价或其他行为，表明消费者感受到了这种压力？”斯皮兰说。</blockquote></p><p> Investor appetite for food and beverage companies</p><p><blockquote>投资者对食品饮料公司的胃口</blockquote></p><p> The top company with the most upside or downside potential is Campbell's, which BofA gave an \"underperform\" rating.</p><p><blockquote>最具上行或下行潜力的顶级公司是金宝公司，美国银行给予其“跑输大盘”评级。</blockquote></p><p> “Campbell's struggling from a few issues,” Spillane said. “One is they are experiencing a material amount of inflation. They have a product portfolio that's a little bit more skewed… to kind of middle and low-income households. So, that's, maybe, an area where there may be some sensitivity around passing those prices through.”</p><p><blockquote>“斯皮兰说：”坎贝尔在几个问题上苦苦挣扎。“一是他们正在经历大量的通货膨胀。他们的产品组合有点偏向.中低收入家庭。因此，这可能是一个在传递这些价格方面存在一些敏感性的领域”。</blockquote></p><p> The iconic soup company also has a lot of direct and indirect exposure to labor shortages and higher labor costs, Spillane added.</p><p><blockquote>斯皮兰补充说，这家标志性的汤品公司也直接和间接地面临着劳动力短缺和劳动力成本上升的问题。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be1718627f49a5fcc29f52e9e322313f\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Cans of Campbell's Soup are displayed in a supermarket in New York City, U.S. February 15, 2017. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2017年2月15日，美国纽约市一家超市里陈列着罐装金宝汤。路透社/布伦丹·麦克德米德</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BofA also gave seasoning-maker McCormick &amp; Company an \"underperform\" rating, with an $84 price target.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行还给予调味品制造商麦考密克公司“跑输大盘”评级，目标价为 84 美元。</blockquote></p><p> McCormick is “still trading at a premium valuation,” Spillane said, adding that while it has benefitted from people having cooked at home more in the last 18 months, “at some point, as things moderate, you're going to see less of that cooking at home behavior. And that's going to create an overhang for McCormick.”</p><p><blockquote>斯皮兰说，麦考密克 “仍在以溢价进行交易”，他补充说，虽然在过去的 18 个月里，人们在家做饭的次数增加了，但 “在某个时候，随着情况的缓和，你会看到更少的在家做饭的行为。这将给麦考密克带来悬念”。</blockquote></p><p> On the flip side, “Hershey [HSY] is well-positioned,” Spillane said, especially when it comes to the inflationary environment.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，“好时 [HSY] 处于有利地位，”斯皮兰说，尤其是在通胀环境下。</blockquote></p><p> “The combination of a category that's still growing very strongly where there's still a lot of product innovation and where there's been demonstrated pricing power, we think that Hershey is set up really well to be able to maybe even more than protect margins, maybe potentially grow margins as we cycle through some of this inflation,” he explained.</p><p><blockquote>“他解释说：”好时是一个仍在强劲增长的品类，仍然有很多产品创新，而且定价权也得到了证明，我们认为好时已经做好了充分准备，也许不仅仅是保护利润率，也许还能在我们经历一些通货膨胀的过程中提高利润率。</blockquote></p><p> BofA also awarded Stove Top stuffing-maker Kraft Heinz a buy rating with a $46 price objective.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行还给予炉顶填料制造商卡夫亨氏买入评级，目标价为 46 美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “We believe this is justified based our view that KHC is well positioned to capture growth associated with changing consumer demand patterns related to recessions and pantry stocking offset by higher than average debt levels,” the analysts wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“分析师写道：”我们认为这是合理的，因为我们认为，KHC 已做好充分准备，可以抓住与经济衰退和食品储藏室库存相关的不断变化的消费者需求模式，而高于平均水平的债务水平抵消了这些变化。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>7 stocks with the most Thanksgiving exposure, according to Bank of America<blockquote>根据美国银行的数据，感恩节风险敞口最大的 7 只股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n7 stocks with the most Thanksgiving exposure, according to Bank of America<blockquote>根据美国银行的数据，感恩节风险敞口最大的 7 只股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">finance.yahoo</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-25 22:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Thanksgiving feasts will likely draw larger crowds than last year and&nbsp;incur higher costs.</p><p><blockquote>感恩节盛宴可能会吸引比去年更多的人群，并产生更高的成本。</blockquote></p><p> A recent Bank of America note detailed which companies have the most exposure to the top holiday dishes amid supply chain bottlenecks, inflation, lingering COVID concerns, low inventories, and evolving consumer behaviors.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行最近的一份报告详细介绍了在供应链瓶颈、通货膨胀、挥之不去的新冠疫情担忧、低库存和不断变化的消费者行为的情况下，哪些公司最有可能接触到顶级节日菜肴。</blockquote></p><p> Those companies are Campbell's Soup Company (CPB), General Mills (GIS), The Kraft Heinz Company (KHC), Conagra Brands (CAG), Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL), McCormick &amp; Company (MKC), and The Duckhorn Portfolio, Inc. (NAPA).</p><p><blockquote>这些公司是金宝汤公司 (CPB)、通用磨坊 (GIS)、卡夫亨氏公司 (KHC)、康尼格拉品牌 (CAG)、荷美尔食品公司 (HRL)、麦考密克公司 (MKC) 和鸭角投资组合公司 (NAPA)。</blockquote></p><p> \"We looked at companies’ exposure to the top Thanksgiving dishes: turkey, stuffing, dinner rolls, gravy, green bean casserole, potatoes, mac &amp; cheese dessert and wine,\" the analysts stated. \"Overall CPB, GIS, KHC, CAG, MKC, HRL and NAPA are the most exposed. KHC and NAPA are our favorite stocks in this group.\"</p><p><blockquote>“分析师们说：”我们调查了各公司对感恩节顶级菜肴的接触情况： 火鸡、馅料、晚餐卷、肉汁、四季豆砂锅、土豆、通心粉和奶酪甜点和葡萄酒。“总体而言，CPB、GIS、KHC、CAG、MKC、HRL 和 NAPA 是暴露最多的。KHC 和 NAPA 是我们在该组中最喜欢的股票。”</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39aa902f366c0bd07e076520c33cdf52\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"409\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Key companies exposed to Thanksgiving meal trends. (Source: BofA)Thanksgiving 'center of the plate' items see more pricing power</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>暴露于感恩节大餐趋势的主要公司。（资料来源：美国银行）感恩节“盘子中心”项目看到更多定价权</span></p></blockquote></p><p> People appear to be gathering around the table again, the analysts stated, as data from social media conversations found mentions of \"vaccines\" on the rise while mentions of \"FaceTime,\" \"social distancing,\" and \"canceled\" declined. (\"Friendsgiving\" and \"day drinking\" also saw increases.)</p><p><blockquote>分析师表示，人们似乎再次聚集在桌子周围，因为社交媒体对话的数据发现，提及“疫苗”的人数有所增加，而提及“FaceTime”、“社交距离”和“取消”的人数有所下降。（“朋友聚会”和“白天喝酒”也有所增加。）</blockquote></p><p> And whether consumers opt for turkey or ham, mashed potatoes or marshmallow-topped sweet potatoes, traditional orplant-based options, they're likely to pay more with inflation hitting food prices.</p><p><blockquote>无论消费者选择火鸡还是火腿、土豆泥还是棉花糖甘薯，传统的还是基于植物的选择，他们都可能在通货膨胀冲击食品价格的情况下支付更多费用。</blockquote></p><p> The&nbsp;American Farm Bureau Thanksgiving cost index&nbsp;projects a 14% year-over-year increase for 2021, led by a 24% increase in turkey prices.</p><p><blockquote>美国农业局感恩节成本指数预计2021年将同比增长14%，其中火鸡价格上涨24%。</blockquote></p><p> “When you look at more of the center of the plate sort of food items, typically, there has not historically been a lot of pricing power,” Bryan Spillane, a senior food and beverage analyst at BofA Global Research, told Yahoo Finance Live (video above). “But what's unusual this year is that there has been. Food companies, in particular, began raising prices the middle of the year, and there's virtually been no elasticity.”</p><p><blockquote>“美国银行全球研究部（BofA Global Research）高级食品和饮料分析师布莱恩-斯皮兰（Bryan Spillane）告诉雅虎财经直播（上图视频）：”通常情况下，当你看到更多的盘子中央类型的食品时，历史上并没有太大的定价权。“但今年不同寻常的是，出现了这种情况。尤其是食品公司，在年中就开始提价，而且几乎没有弹性。”</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e60ff60917eb4db45a68c41bd19a337\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"529\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Frozen turkeys in Philadelphia, Wednesday, Nov. 17, 2021. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2021年11月17日，星期三，费城的冷冻火鸡。（美联社照片/马特·洛克）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> That said, Spillane added, consumer behavior is expected to change at some point.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，斯皮兰补充说，消费者行为预计会在某个时候发生变化。</blockquote></p><p> “Something that we're really watching as we move into next year is: At what point does the consumer begin to push back and do we begin to see some trading down or other behavior that demonstrates that consumers are feeling that pinch?” Spillane said.</p><p><blockquote>“进入明年，我们真正关注的是：消费者在什么时候开始反击，我们是否开始看到一些降价或其他行为，表明消费者感受到了这种压力？”斯皮兰说。</blockquote></p><p> Investor appetite for food and beverage companies</p><p><blockquote>投资者对食品饮料公司的胃口</blockquote></p><p> The top company with the most upside or downside potential is Campbell's, which BofA gave an \"underperform\" rating.</p><p><blockquote>最具上行或下行潜力的顶级公司是金宝公司，美国银行给予其“跑输大盘”评级。</blockquote></p><p> “Campbell's struggling from a few issues,” Spillane said. “One is they are experiencing a material amount of inflation. They have a product portfolio that's a little bit more skewed… to kind of middle and low-income households. So, that's, maybe, an area where there may be some sensitivity around passing those prices through.”</p><p><blockquote>“斯皮兰说：”坎贝尔在几个问题上苦苦挣扎。“一是他们正在经历大量的通货膨胀。他们的产品组合有点偏向.中低收入家庭。因此，这可能是一个在传递这些价格方面存在一些敏感性的领域”。</blockquote></p><p> The iconic soup company also has a lot of direct and indirect exposure to labor shortages and higher labor costs, Spillane added.</p><p><blockquote>斯皮兰补充说，这家标志性的汤品公司也直接和间接地面临着劳动力短缺和劳动力成本上升的问题。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be1718627f49a5fcc29f52e9e322313f\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Cans of Campbell's Soup are displayed in a supermarket in New York City, U.S. February 15, 2017. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2017年2月15日，美国纽约市一家超市里陈列着罐装金宝汤。路透社/布伦丹·麦克德米德</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BofA also gave seasoning-maker McCormick &amp; Company an \"underperform\" rating, with an $84 price target.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行还给予调味品制造商麦考密克公司“跑输大盘”评级，目标价为 84 美元。</blockquote></p><p> McCormick is “still trading at a premium valuation,” Spillane said, adding that while it has benefitted from people having cooked at home more in the last 18 months, “at some point, as things moderate, you're going to see less of that cooking at home behavior. And that's going to create an overhang for McCormick.”</p><p><blockquote>斯皮兰说，麦考密克 “仍在以溢价进行交易”，他补充说，虽然在过去的 18 个月里，人们在家做饭的次数增加了，但 “在某个时候，随着情况的缓和，你会看到更少的在家做饭的行为。这将给麦考密克带来悬念”。</blockquote></p><p> On the flip side, “Hershey [HSY] is well-positioned,” Spillane said, especially when it comes to the inflationary environment.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，“好时 [HSY] 处于有利地位，”斯皮兰说，尤其是在通胀环境下。</blockquote></p><p> “The combination of a category that's still growing very strongly where there's still a lot of product innovation and where there's been demonstrated pricing power, we think that Hershey is set up really well to be able to maybe even more than protect margins, maybe potentially grow margins as we cycle through some of this inflation,” he explained.</p><p><blockquote>“他解释说：”好时是一个仍在强劲增长的品类，仍然有很多产品创新，而且定价权也得到了证明，我们认为好时已经做好了充分准备，也许不仅仅是保护利润率，也许还能在我们经历一些通货膨胀的过程中提高利润率。</blockquote></p><p> BofA also awarded Stove Top stuffing-maker Kraft Heinz a buy rating with a $46 price objective.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行还给予炉顶填料制造商卡夫亨氏买入评级，目标价为 46 美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “We believe this is justified based our view that KHC is well positioned to capture growth associated with changing consumer demand patterns related to recessions and pantry stocking offset by higher than average debt levels,” the analysts wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“分析师写道：”我们认为这是合理的，因为我们认为，KHC 已做好充分准备，可以抓住与经济衰退和食品储藏室库存相关的不断变化的消费者需求模式，而高于平均水平的债务水平抵消了这些变化。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/7-stocks-thanksgiving-exposure-bank-of-america-134505457.html\">finance.yahoo</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CAG":"康尼格拉","CPB":"金宝汤","GIS":"通用磨坊","MKC":"味好美","KHC":"卡夫亨氏","HRL":"荷美尔"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/7-stocks-thanksgiving-exposure-bank-of-america-134505457.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122037796","content_text":"Thanksgiving feasts will likely draw larger crowds than last year and incur higher costs.\nA recent Bank of America note detailed which companies have the most exposure to the top holiday dishes amid supply chain bottlenecks, inflation, lingering COVID concerns, low inventories, and evolving consumer behaviors.\nThose companies are Campbell's Soup Company (CPB), General Mills (GIS), The Kraft Heinz Company (KHC), Conagra Brands (CAG), Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL), McCormick & Company (MKC), and The Duckhorn Portfolio, Inc. (NAPA).\n\"We looked at companies’ exposure to the top Thanksgiving dishes: turkey, stuffing, dinner rolls, gravy, green bean casserole, potatoes, mac & cheese dessert and wine,\" the analysts stated. \"Overall CPB, GIS, KHC, CAG, MKC, HRL and NAPA are the most exposed. KHC and NAPA are our favorite stocks in this group.\"\nKey companies exposed to Thanksgiving meal trends. (Source: BofA)Thanksgiving 'center of the plate' items see more pricing power\nPeople appear to be gathering around the table again, the analysts stated, as data from social media conversations found mentions of \"vaccines\" on the rise while mentions of \"FaceTime,\" \"social distancing,\" and \"canceled\" declined. (\"Friendsgiving\" and \"day drinking\" also saw increases.)\nAnd whether consumers opt for turkey or ham, mashed potatoes or marshmallow-topped sweet potatoes, traditional orplant-based options, they're likely to pay more with inflation hitting food prices.\nThe American Farm Bureau Thanksgiving cost index projects a 14% year-over-year increase for 2021, led by a 24% increase in turkey prices.\n“When you look at more of the center of the plate sort of food items, typically, there has not historically been a lot of pricing power,” Bryan Spillane, a senior food and beverage analyst at BofA Global Research, told Yahoo Finance Live (video above). “But what's unusual this year is that there has been. Food companies, in particular, began raising prices the middle of the year, and there's virtually been no elasticity.”\nFrozen turkeys in Philadelphia, Wednesday, Nov. 17, 2021. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke)\nThat said, Spillane added, consumer behavior is expected to change at some point.\n“Something that we're really watching as we move into next year is: At what point does the consumer begin to push back and do we begin to see some trading down or other behavior that demonstrates that consumers are feeling that pinch?” Spillane said.\nInvestor appetite for food and beverage companies\nThe top company with the most upside or downside potential is Campbell's, which BofA gave an \"underperform\" rating.\n“Campbell's struggling from a few issues,” Spillane said. “One is they are experiencing a material amount of inflation. They have a product portfolio that's a little bit more skewed… to kind of middle and low-income households. So, that's, maybe, an area where there may be some sensitivity around passing those prices through.”\nThe iconic soup company also has a lot of direct and indirect exposure to labor shortages and higher labor costs, Spillane added.\nCans of Campbell's Soup are displayed in a supermarket in New York City, U.S. February 15, 2017. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid\nBofA also gave seasoning-maker McCormick & Company an \"underperform\" rating, with an $84 price target.\nMcCormick is “still trading at a premium valuation,” Spillane said, adding that while it has benefitted from people having cooked at home more in the last 18 months, “at some point, as things moderate, you're going to see less of that cooking at home behavior. And that's going to create an overhang for McCormick.”\nOn the flip side, “Hershey [HSY] is well-positioned,” Spillane said, especially when it comes to the inflationary environment.\n“The combination of a category that's still growing very strongly where there's still a lot of product innovation and where there's been demonstrated pricing power, we think that Hershey is set up really well to be able to maybe even more than protect margins, maybe potentially grow margins as we cycle through some of this inflation,” he explained.\nBofA also awarded Stove Top stuffing-maker Kraft Heinz a buy rating with a $46 price objective.\n“We believe this is justified based our view that KHC is well positioned to capture growth associated with changing consumer demand patterns related to recessions and pantry stocking offset by higher than average debt levels,” the analysts wrote.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HRL":0.9,"CAG":0.9,"CPB":0.9,"KHC":0.9,"MKC":0.9,"GIS":0.9,"NAPA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5092,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":840089900,"gmtCreate":1635567942160,"gmtModify":1635567942160,"author":{"id":"3576849200483737","authorId":"3576849200483737","name":"Fuzzyfuzzy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83fbe5cf3fa66c4ec89abe62d2856950","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576849200483737","authorIdStr":"3576849200483737"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Huh","listText":"Huh","text":"Huh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/840089900","repostId":"2179471352","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2179471352","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1635566092,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2179471352?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-30 11:54","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Opinion:Here's the math for Tesla's stock price if it becomes the Apple of car makers<blockquote>观点：如果特斯拉成为汽车制造商的苹果，特斯拉的股价计算如下</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2179471352","media":"Market watch","summary":"For those that don’t know, in the early 2000s it was unimaginable that these legacy mobile phone manufacturers could disappear. In 2006, Research in Motion , the company making BlackBerrys, lost a patent suit against NTP and a U.S. District Court judge slapped an injunction on sales. The Defense Department stepped in, claiming that a Blackberry injunction was a threat to national security. Meanwhile, industry leader Nokia held a 40% market share and by the end of 2007 sported a $230 billion mark","content":"<p>Fans and shareholders of Tesla are making stronger and louder arguments about the future of their favorite company. In them, they draw analogies to one of the most successful brands and businesses in the history of capitalism. They suggest that automaking may go the way of handset manufacturing and that – for TeslaTSLA,+3.43%– there is a strong resemblance to the AppleAAPL,-1.82%vs. Nokia/Blackberry/Ericsson/Motorola dynamic.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉的粉丝和股东正在对他们最喜欢的公司的未来进行更强烈、更响亮的争论。在书中，他们将资本主义历史上最成功的品牌和企业之一进行了类比。他们认为汽车制造可能会走上手机制造的道路，而且对于特斯拉来说，SLA+3.43%，与苹果APL（-1.82%）非常相似。诺基亚/黑莓/爱立信/摩托罗拉动力。</blockquote></p><p> For those that don’t know, in the early 2000s it was unimaginable that these legacy mobile phone manufacturers could disappear. In 2006, Research in Motion (RIM), the company making BlackBerrys, lost a patent suit against NTP and a U.S. District Court judge slapped an injunction on sales. The Defense Department stepped in, claiming that a Blackberry injunction was a threat to national security. Meanwhile, industry leader Nokia held a 40% market share and by the end of 2007 sported a $230 billion market cap.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些不知道的人来说，在本世纪初，这些传统手机制造商会消失是不可想象的。2006 年，生产黑莓手机的 Research in Motion (RIM) 公司在针对 NTP 的专利诉讼中败诉，美国地方法院法官下达了销售禁令。国防部介入，声称黑莓禁令对国家安全构成威胁。与此同时，行业领导者诺基亚占据了40%的市场份额，到2007年底，其市值达到了2300亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> But something else happened in 2007.</p><p><blockquote>但是2007年发生了别的事情。</blockquote></p><p> Steve Jobs introduced the iPhone.</p><p><blockquote>史蒂夫·乔布斯推出了iPhone。</blockquote></p><p> And that changed the game for Nokia, Blackberry and the entire industry, forever.</p><p><blockquote>这永远改变了诺基亚、黑莓和整个行业的游戏规则。</blockquote></p><p> Coincidentally, Jobs introduced that iPhone seven months after Tesla introduced the Roadster at the San Francisco International Auto Show. Fast forward to 2021, and the bulls are suggesting that Apple’s overwhelming success in handset manufacturing can be mirrored in automobile manufacturing by Elon Musk’s Tesla.</p><p><blockquote>巧合的是，乔布斯在特斯拉在旧金山国际车展上推出Roadster 7个月后推出了iPhone。时间快进到 2021 年，多头认为苹果在手机制造领域取得的巨大成功可以通过埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）的特斯拉在汽车制造领域得到复制。</blockquote></p><p> For this to happen, let’s first assume that within 15 years buyers will demand a broadly similar “form factor” for any vehicle. Today, there are 250 brands of cars sold to fit all appetites and budgets, and perhaps over 1,000 trims. Meanwhile, thanks to the iPhone, handset hardware has gone from a myriad of styles, sizes and forms to basically one.</p><p><blockquote>要实现这一点，我们首先假设在 15 年内，买家对任何车辆的 “外形 ”要求都大致相似。如今，有 250 个品牌的汽车销售，以满足各种口味和预算，可能还有 1,000 多种装饰。与此同时，多亏了iPhone，手机硬件已经从无数种风格、尺寸和形式变成了基本上只有一种。</blockquote></p><p> Similarly, let’s imagine that the production and value of automobiles and light trucks will become less about the style or performance that is demanded and instead mostly about the software inside the vehicle.</p><p><blockquote>同样，让我们想象一下，汽车和轻型卡车的生产和价值将不再取决于所需的款式或性能，而是主要取决于车内的软件。</blockquote></p><p> Finally (and this is a huge debate, but) let’s presuppose that Tesla will have better software – most importantly better autonomous driving capability – than any other vendor or manufacturer, whether in Silicon Valley, Detroit, Wolfsburg or elsewhere.</p><p><blockquote>最后（这是一个巨大的争论，但）让我们假设特斯拉将拥有比任何其他供应商或制造商更好的软件--最重要的是更好的自动驾驶能力--无论是在硅谷、底特律、沃尔夫斯堡还是其他地方。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, let’s assume that Tesla is going to become the Apple of automakers.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，假设特斯拉将成为汽车制造商的苹果。</blockquote></p><p> To do this, we need to ignore that Apple is not just a handset manufacturer. In the first three quarters this year, it reported over $150 billion of iPhone sales, which represented 55% of total sales. It also reported sales from the “Services” segment, which included sales from advertising, digital content, AppleCare and other lines. If we assume all that revenue was driven by the iPhone (even though not all was), then we get the iPhone representing about 65%-70% of Apple’s sales.</p><p><blockquote>要做到这一点，我们需要忽略苹果不仅仅是一家手机制造商。今年前三个季度，该公司报告的iPhone销售额超过1500亿美元，占总销售额的55%。该公司还报告了 “服务 ”部门的销售额，其中包括广告、数字内容、AppleCare 和其他领域的销售额。如果我们假设所有收入都是由 iPhone 推动的（尽管并非全部），那么 iPhone 约占苹果销售额的 65%-70%。</blockquote></p><p> This implies Apple has a substantial business (about $110 billion this year) selling Macs, iPads, wearables and accessories too. So in our “Tesla is Apple” analogy, we need to assume that Tesla will make similar extensions into new products.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着苹果在销售 Mac、iPad、可穿戴设备和配件方面也拥有庞大的业务（今年约 1100 亿美元）。因此，在我们的 “特斯拉就是苹果 ”类比中，我们需要假设特斯拉也会对新产品进行类似的扩展。</blockquote></p><p> We also need to ignore that most of the profit for Apple in handsets comes from mobile advertising and app sales, much of which Apple reports in that services segment noted above. Again, to stay in our framework, we also need to believe that Tesla would generate something similar via its over-the-air updates or its own app store.</p><p><blockquote>我们还需要忽略这样一个事实，即苹果在手机领域的大部分利润来自移动广告和应用程序销售，其中大部分是苹果在上述服务领域报告的。同样，为了留在我们的框架内，我们还需要相信特斯拉会通过其无线更新或自己的应用商店产生类似的东西。</blockquote></p><p> Making all these assumptions, then future margins in “automaking” – for at least one manufacturer – could theoretically start trending up toward the margins generated today by Apple.</p><p><blockquote>做出所有这些假设，那么 “汽车制造 ”领域的未来利润率--至少对一家制造商来说--理论上可能会开始向苹果今天产生的利润率上升趋势。</blockquote></p><p> So in terms of handset market share, people around the world are going to buy approximately 1.4 billion handsets this year, and the average selling price will be about $320. Apple has about 16% of the global market, and will sell about 225 million iPhones.</p><p><blockquote>所以就手机市场份额而言，今年全球人们将购买大约14亿部手机，平均售价将在320美元左右。苹果拥有全球约16%的市场份额，将销售约2.25亿部iPhone。</blockquote></p><p> Just guessing here, but if these iPhones are sold at an average price of $890, then the average price of all the other phones sold in the world needs to be about $125 for the math to make sense. And because Apple can sell its iPhone at such a huge premium and produce remarkable revenues from advertising and app store sales, it generates a whopping 24% earnings margin.</p><p><blockquote>这里只是猜测，但如果这些iPhone的平均价格为890美元，那么世界上销售的所有其他手机的平均价格需要在125美元左右，数学才有意义。由于苹果可以以如此高的溢价销售其 iPhone，并从广告和应用商店销售中产生可观的收入，因此它产生了高达 24% 的利润率。</blockquote></p><p> In comparison, VolkswagenVOW3,-0.49%VWAPY,-2.43%,which started operations in 1938, has worked its way up to a global market share of 12.0% and generates net income margins of 5.0%.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，1938 年开始运营的大众 VOW3,-0.49% VWAPY,-2.43% 的全球市场份额已达到 12.0%，净利润率为 5.0%。</blockquote></p><p> Toyota7203,+0.33%TM,+0.05%,which also started operations in 1938, also has a global market share of 12.0% and generates even better net income margins of approximately 7.0%.</p><p><blockquote>丰田7203，+0.33%TM，+0.05%，也于1938年开始运营，全球市场份额也为12.0%，净利润率更高，约为7.0%。</blockquote></p><p> Nokia, for what it is worth, generated 14% net margins before the iPhone changed the game.&nbsp; In other words, even before Apple showed up, handset manufacturing was over twice as profitable for market leaders as making cars.</p><p><blockquote>就其价值而言，诺基亚在iPhone改变游戏规则之前创造了14%的净利润。换句话说，即使在苹果出现之前，手机制造对市场领导者来说的利润也是制造汽车的两倍多。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Anyway, folks around the world will buy about 75 million new cars this year, and at an average price of $30,000 (ballpark) this works out to over $2.2 trillion in sales. This is about five times larger than the handset market, which will come in at about $450 million. Toyota and Volkswagen are the largest – and best in class – scale automobile manufacturers in the world. Other groups, including FordF,+1.30%,Stellantis (FCA/Peugeot)STLA,-0.50%,DaimlerDAI,+2.25%,General MotorsGM,+0.35%,Honda7267,-0.53%HMC,-0.40%,BMWBMW,-0.11%and many others also have significant share.</p><p><blockquote>无论如何，今年世界各地的人们将购买约 7500 万辆新车，以 30,000 美元（大致）的平均价格计算，销售额将超过 2.2 万亿美元。这大约是手机市场的五倍，手机市场的收入约为 4.5 亿美元。丰田和大众是世界上最大的、也是同类中最好的汽车制造商。其他集团，包括福特F，+1.30%，Stellantis (FCA/标致) STLA，-0.50%，戴姆勒DAI，+2.25%，通用汽车SGM，+0.35%，本田7267，-0.53%HMC，-0.40%，宝马宝马，-0.11%等许多其他集团也拥有重要份额。</blockquote></p><p> This year, Tesla will sell about a million cars, representing a global market share of 1.3%.</p><p><blockquote>今年，特斯拉将销售约100万辆汽车，占全球市场份额1.3%。</blockquote></p><p> And dare I say that each of Tesla’s competitors will be loath to surrender more market share, thus the huge amount of R&amp;D and capital spending they will devote to the upcoming transition to electric vehicles (EVs). On the CAPEX metric alone, we can see that these competitors will actually spend more next year than Tesla.</p><p><blockquote>我敢说，特斯拉的每个竞争对手都不愿意放弃更多的市场份额，因此他们将把巨额研发和资本支出投入到即将到来的电动汽车（EV）转型中。仅从资本支出指标来看，我们可以看到这些竞争对手明年的支出实际上将超过特斯拉。</blockquote></p><p> A lot more.</p><p><blockquote>更多。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0b0383d691f139a5d04a2a94c2bd399\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">ALBERT BRIDGE CAPITAL</p><p><blockquote>艾伯特桥资本</blockquote></p><p> But still, let’s assume all the legacy automakers fail to maintain share. Let’s also envision that most of the profits in the industry will eventually go to Tesla (as they have in handsets to Apple).</p><p><blockquote>不过，我们还是假设所有传统汽车制造商都未能保持市场份额。我们还可以设想，该行业的大部分利润最终将流向特斯拉（就像手机流向苹果一样）。</blockquote></p><p> As a baseline, analysts anticipate that Tesla will generate over $50 billion in sales this year. Over 85% of these sales are related to its automotive business.</p><p><blockquote>作为基线，分析师预计特斯拉今年的销售额将超过 500 亿美元。其中超过 85% 的销售额与其汽车业务有关。</blockquote></p><p> In 2035, if EVs represents 95% of all new cars sold, and Tesla has the same 16% market share as Apple does today (significantly eclipsing that of VW or Toyota), it will be producing 22 million cars and light trucks, and generating sales of over $1 trillion.</p><p><blockquote>到 2035 年，如果电动汽车占所有新车销量的 95%，并且特斯拉拥有与苹果今天相同的 16% 的市场份额（大大超过大众或丰田），那么它将生产 2200 万辆汽车和轻型卡车，销售额将超过 1 万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> This year, analysts anticipate that Tesla will generate nearly $7 billion in adjusted net income (which will include approximately $1.2 billion in profits driven by regulatory credits).</p><p><blockquote>今年，分析师预计特斯拉将产生近 70 亿美元的调整后净利润（其中包括监管信贷推动的约 12 亿美元利润）。</blockquote></p><p> If Tesla were able to generate the same 24% net earnings margin as Apple does today (remember VW is at 5% and Toyota at 7%), then it would produce about $250 billion of earnings in 2035.</p><p><blockquote>如果特斯拉能够产生与苹果今天相同的 24% 净利润率（记住大众为 5%，丰田为 7%），那么它将在 2035 年产生约 2500 亿美元的收益。</blockquote></p><p> As Tesla has grown from zero to one million cars, it has built production facilities in Freemont, Shanghai and soon Austin; battery-producing gigafactories in Nevada, Buffalo, Germany and Austin again; and other manufacturing and tooling facilities in Michigan, Ontario, Shanghai, two more in California and three more in Germany.</p><p><blockquote>随着特斯拉从零到一百万辆汽车的发展，它已经在Freemont、Shanghai和不久的Austin建立了生产设施；内华达州、布法罗、德国和奥斯汀再次出现电池生产超级工厂；以及密歇根州、安大略省、上海的其他制造和模具工厂，加利福尼亚州还有两个工厂，德国还有三个工厂。</blockquote></p><p> To finance this expansion, Tesla went from 35 million diluted shares in 2009 to 641 million in 2015 to over 1.1 billion today. Of course some of these went to key executives in the firm as compensation, but for the most part, this share issuance helped to finance the firm’s stunning growth to date.</p><p><blockquote>为了为此次扩张提供资金，特斯拉从 2009 年的 3500 万股稀释股票增加到 2015 年的 6.41 亿股，再到如今的超过 11 亿股。当然，其中一些作为补偿发给了公司的主要高管，但在很大程度上，这次股票发行为公司迄今为止的惊人增长提供了资金。</blockquote></p><p> And if Tesla is going to build over 20 million units a year (up from about 1 million this year), this will require a lot more capital. But given its strong share price and internal cash flow generation, let’s assume that the rate of new share issuance at Tesla will slow dramatically, to just 1.5% new shares per year. At this rate, they would have “only” 1.4 billion shares in 2035.</p><p><blockquote>如果特斯拉每年要建造超过 2000 万辆汽车（高于今年的约 100 万辆），这将需要更多的资本。但鉴于其强劲的股价和内部现金流，让我们假设特斯拉的新股发行速度将大幅放缓，每年新股发行量仅为 1.5%。按照这个速度，到 2035 年，他们 “只有 ”14 亿股股票。</blockquote></p><p> And in that year, on production of 22 million vehicles at an average selling price of $46,000 (again, our guess) and doing 24% net earnings margins, this $250 billion of earnings would work out to about $178 per share.</p><p><blockquote>那一年，以平均售价 46,000 美元（同样是我们的猜测）生产 2200 万辆汽车，净利润率为 24%，这 2500 亿美元的收益将达到每股约 178 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Given Tesla’s domination in this scenario where it maxes out its market share, the only negative is that it would no longer be a secular story, but one more exposed to the cyclical nature of automaking. So its huge amount of revenue and income would naturally be growing much more slowly by then. But, again for the sake of this exercise, let’s assume that Tesla will still find a way to continue to generate a consistent 10% EPS growth on that $250 billion number.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于特斯拉在这种最大限度地扩大市场份额的情况下占据主导地位，唯一的负面影响是它将不再是一个世俗的故事，而是一个更加暴露于汽车制造周期性的故事。因此，到那时，其巨额收入和收入的增长自然会慢得多。但是，同样为了本次练习的目的，让我们假设特斯拉仍将找到一种方法，在 2500 亿美元的数字上继续实现 10% 的每股收益持续增长。</blockquote></p><p> And despite this slowing, let’s also assume that investors will want to pay a P/E ratio of over 20 for a now huge and cyclical business.</p><p><blockquote>尽管经济放缓，但我们也假设投资者愿意为一家目前规模庞大且具有周期性的企业支付超过 20 的市盈率。</blockquote></p><p> On a P/E of 22.5, that would work out to a market cap of $5.6 trillion, and a share price of $4,000.</p><p><blockquote>如果市盈率为 22.5，那么市值将达到 5.6 万亿美元，股价为 4,000 美元。</blockquote></p><p> These are big numbers. And despite what we hear from the more optimistic of the Tesla bulls, let’s also assume that today’s shareholders only hope to make 10% per year between now and 2035.</p><p><blockquote>这些都是很大的数字。尽管我们从更乐观的特斯拉多头那里听到了一些说法，但让我们也假设，从现在到 2035 年，今天的股东只希望每年赚取 10% 的收益。</blockquote></p><p> If we discount that $4,000 by 10% back to today, the shares are worth $1,050.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们将这 4,000 美元折扣 10%，回到今天，这些股票的价值为 1,050 美元。</blockquote></p><p> That is pretty close to where we are right now.</p><p><blockquote>这与我们现在的情况非常接近。</blockquote></p><p> So all that above is what needs to happen for $1,050 to be a fair share price today.</p><p><blockquote>因此，以上就是 1,050 美元要想成为当今公平的股价需要发生的事情。</blockquote></p><p> Doubters, admittedly like us, will suggest that the execution risk is tremendous, and these market shares (and particularly the margins) may be impossible.</p><p><blockquote>怀疑者，诚然和我们一样，会认为执行风险是巨大的，这些市场份额（尤其是利润率）可能是不可能的。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Yet, despite the fact that we actually can’t ignore the differences between the mobile phone and automobile industries noted above, the believers – who may indeed be right – will literally need to see Apple-esque industry dynamics, market shares and earnings margins for this all to make sense.</p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管我们实际上不能忽视上述手机和汽车行业之间的差异，但信徒们--他们可能确实是对的--确实需要看到苹果式的行业动态、市场份额和利润率，才能让这一切变得有意义。</blockquote></p><p> It is also important to consider that for there to be even more upside in the shares from current levels, Tesla will actually have to exceed everything that Apple has accomplished.</p><p><blockquote>同样重要的是要考虑到，要想让股价在当前水平上有更大的上涨空间，特斯拉实际上必须超越苹果所取得的一切成就。</blockquote></p><p> Whether a bull or a bear, there is no doubting that what Musk has achieved thus far has been nothing short of incredible. Five years ago, few would have thought it even possible that Hertz would order 100,000 Teslas in a single order for its car rental fleet, or that Tesla would produce and sell a million cars in a single year.</p><p><blockquote>无论是牛市还是熊市，毫无疑问，马斯克迄今为止所取得的成就都令人难以置信。五年前，很少有人会想到赫兹会为其汽车租赁车队一次性订购 10 万辆特斯拉，或者特斯拉会在一年内生产和销售 100 万辆汽车。</blockquote></p><p> He will continue to do incredible things.&nbsp; He has changed the world and the mindset of his competitors. None of that is in question. The future that his share price is discounting is the question we are asking today.</p><p><blockquote>他会继续做不可思议的事情。 他改变了世界和竞争对手的心态。这些都是不可能的。他的股价打折的未来是我们今天要问的问题。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1616996754749","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion:Here's the math for Tesla's stock price if it becomes the Apple of car makers<blockquote>观点：如果特斯拉成为汽车制造商的苹果，特斯拉的股价计算如下</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion:Here's the math for Tesla's stock price if it becomes the Apple of car makers<blockquote>观点：如果特斯拉成为汽车制造商的苹果，特斯拉的股价计算如下</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Market watch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-30 11:54</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Fans and shareholders of Tesla are making stronger and louder arguments about the future of their favorite company. In them, they draw analogies to one of the most successful brands and businesses in the history of capitalism. They suggest that automaking may go the way of handset manufacturing and that – for TeslaTSLA,+3.43%– there is a strong resemblance to the AppleAAPL,-1.82%vs. Nokia/Blackberry/Ericsson/Motorola dynamic.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉的粉丝和股东正在对他们最喜欢的公司的未来进行更强烈、更响亮的争论。在书中，他们将资本主义历史上最成功的品牌和企业之一进行了类比。他们认为汽车制造可能会走上手机制造的道路，而且对于特斯拉来说，SLA+3.43%，与苹果APL（-1.82%）非常相似。诺基亚/黑莓/爱立信/摩托罗拉动力。</blockquote></p><p> For those that don’t know, in the early 2000s it was unimaginable that these legacy mobile phone manufacturers could disappear. In 2006, Research in Motion (RIM), the company making BlackBerrys, lost a patent suit against NTP and a U.S. District Court judge slapped an injunction on sales. The Defense Department stepped in, claiming that a Blackberry injunction was a threat to national security. Meanwhile, industry leader Nokia held a 40% market share and by the end of 2007 sported a $230 billion market cap.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些不知道的人来说，在本世纪初，这些传统手机制造商会消失是不可想象的。2006 年，生产黑莓手机的 Research in Motion (RIM) 公司在针对 NTP 的专利诉讼中败诉，美国地方法院法官下达了销售禁令。国防部介入，声称黑莓禁令对国家安全构成威胁。与此同时，行业领导者诺基亚占据了40%的市场份额，到2007年底，其市值达到了2300亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> But something else happened in 2007.</p><p><blockquote>但是2007年发生了别的事情。</blockquote></p><p> Steve Jobs introduced the iPhone.</p><p><blockquote>史蒂夫·乔布斯推出了iPhone。</blockquote></p><p> And that changed the game for Nokia, Blackberry and the entire industry, forever.</p><p><blockquote>这永远改变了诺基亚、黑莓和整个行业的游戏规则。</blockquote></p><p> Coincidentally, Jobs introduced that iPhone seven months after Tesla introduced the Roadster at the San Francisco International Auto Show. Fast forward to 2021, and the bulls are suggesting that Apple’s overwhelming success in handset manufacturing can be mirrored in automobile manufacturing by Elon Musk’s Tesla.</p><p><blockquote>巧合的是，乔布斯在特斯拉在旧金山国际车展上推出Roadster 7个月后推出了iPhone。时间快进到 2021 年，多头认为苹果在手机制造领域取得的巨大成功可以通过埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）的特斯拉在汽车制造领域得到复制。</blockquote></p><p> For this to happen, let’s first assume that within 15 years buyers will demand a broadly similar “form factor” for any vehicle. Today, there are 250 brands of cars sold to fit all appetites and budgets, and perhaps over 1,000 trims. Meanwhile, thanks to the iPhone, handset hardware has gone from a myriad of styles, sizes and forms to basically one.</p><p><blockquote>要实现这一点，我们首先假设在 15 年内，买家对任何车辆的 “外形 ”要求都大致相似。如今，有 250 个品牌的汽车销售，以满足各种口味和预算，可能还有 1,000 多种装饰。与此同时，多亏了iPhone，手机硬件已经从无数种风格、尺寸和形式变成了基本上只有一种。</blockquote></p><p> Similarly, let’s imagine that the production and value of automobiles and light trucks will become less about the style or performance that is demanded and instead mostly about the software inside the vehicle.</p><p><blockquote>同样，让我们想象一下，汽车和轻型卡车的生产和价值将不再取决于所需的款式或性能，而是主要取决于车内的软件。</blockquote></p><p> Finally (and this is a huge debate, but) let’s presuppose that Tesla will have better software – most importantly better autonomous driving capability – than any other vendor or manufacturer, whether in Silicon Valley, Detroit, Wolfsburg or elsewhere.</p><p><blockquote>最后（这是一个巨大的争论，但）让我们假设特斯拉将拥有比任何其他供应商或制造商更好的软件--最重要的是更好的自动驾驶能力--无论是在硅谷、底特律、沃尔夫斯堡还是其他地方。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, let’s assume that Tesla is going to become the Apple of automakers.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，假设特斯拉将成为汽车制造商的苹果。</blockquote></p><p> To do this, we need to ignore that Apple is not just a handset manufacturer. In the first three quarters this year, it reported over $150 billion of iPhone sales, which represented 55% of total sales. It also reported sales from the “Services” segment, which included sales from advertising, digital content, AppleCare and other lines. If we assume all that revenue was driven by the iPhone (even though not all was), then we get the iPhone representing about 65%-70% of Apple’s sales.</p><p><blockquote>要做到这一点，我们需要忽略苹果不仅仅是一家手机制造商。今年前三个季度，该公司报告的iPhone销售额超过1500亿美元，占总销售额的55%。该公司还报告了 “服务 ”部门的销售额，其中包括广告、数字内容、AppleCare 和其他领域的销售额。如果我们假设所有收入都是由 iPhone 推动的（尽管并非全部），那么 iPhone 约占苹果销售额的 65%-70%。</blockquote></p><p> This implies Apple has a substantial business (about $110 billion this year) selling Macs, iPads, wearables and accessories too. So in our “Tesla is Apple” analogy, we need to assume that Tesla will make similar extensions into new products.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着苹果在销售 Mac、iPad、可穿戴设备和配件方面也拥有庞大的业务（今年约 1100 亿美元）。因此，在我们的 “特斯拉就是苹果 ”类比中，我们需要假设特斯拉也会对新产品进行类似的扩展。</blockquote></p><p> We also need to ignore that most of the profit for Apple in handsets comes from mobile advertising and app sales, much of which Apple reports in that services segment noted above. Again, to stay in our framework, we also need to believe that Tesla would generate something similar via its over-the-air updates or its own app store.</p><p><blockquote>我们还需要忽略这样一个事实，即苹果在手机领域的大部分利润来自移动广告和应用程序销售，其中大部分是苹果在上述服务领域报告的。同样，为了留在我们的框架内，我们还需要相信特斯拉会通过其无线更新或自己的应用商店产生类似的东西。</blockquote></p><p> Making all these assumptions, then future margins in “automaking” – for at least one manufacturer – could theoretically start trending up toward the margins generated today by Apple.</p><p><blockquote>做出所有这些假设，那么 “汽车制造 ”领域的未来利润率--至少对一家制造商来说--理论上可能会开始向苹果今天产生的利润率上升趋势。</blockquote></p><p> So in terms of handset market share, people around the world are going to buy approximately 1.4 billion handsets this year, and the average selling price will be about $320. Apple has about 16% of the global market, and will sell about 225 million iPhones.</p><p><blockquote>所以就手机市场份额而言，今年全球人们将购买大约14亿部手机，平均售价将在320美元左右。苹果拥有全球约16%的市场份额，将销售约2.25亿部iPhone。</blockquote></p><p> Just guessing here, but if these iPhones are sold at an average price of $890, then the average price of all the other phones sold in the world needs to be about $125 for the math to make sense. And because Apple can sell its iPhone at such a huge premium and produce remarkable revenues from advertising and app store sales, it generates a whopping 24% earnings margin.</p><p><blockquote>这里只是猜测，但如果这些iPhone的平均价格为890美元，那么世界上销售的所有其他手机的平均价格需要在125美元左右，数学才有意义。由于苹果可以以如此高的溢价销售其 iPhone，并从广告和应用商店销售中产生可观的收入，因此它产生了高达 24% 的利润率。</blockquote></p><p> In comparison, VolkswagenVOW3,-0.49%VWAPY,-2.43%,which started operations in 1938, has worked its way up to a global market share of 12.0% and generates net income margins of 5.0%.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，1938 年开始运营的大众 VOW3,-0.49% VWAPY,-2.43% 的全球市场份额已达到 12.0%，净利润率为 5.0%。</blockquote></p><p> Toyota7203,+0.33%TM,+0.05%,which also started operations in 1938, also has a global market share of 12.0% and generates even better net income margins of approximately 7.0%.</p><p><blockquote>丰田7203，+0.33%TM，+0.05%，也于1938年开始运营，全球市场份额也为12.0%，净利润率更高，约为7.0%。</blockquote></p><p> Nokia, for what it is worth, generated 14% net margins before the iPhone changed the game.&nbsp; In other words, even before Apple showed up, handset manufacturing was over twice as profitable for market leaders as making cars.</p><p><blockquote>就其价值而言，诺基亚在iPhone改变游戏规则之前创造了14%的净利润。换句话说，即使在苹果出现之前，手机制造对市场领导者来说的利润也是制造汽车的两倍多。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Anyway, folks around the world will buy about 75 million new cars this year, and at an average price of $30,000 (ballpark) this works out to over $2.2 trillion in sales. This is about five times larger than the handset market, which will come in at about $450 million. Toyota and Volkswagen are the largest – and best in class – scale automobile manufacturers in the world. Other groups, including FordF,+1.30%,Stellantis (FCA/Peugeot)STLA,-0.50%,DaimlerDAI,+2.25%,General MotorsGM,+0.35%,Honda7267,-0.53%HMC,-0.40%,BMWBMW,-0.11%and many others also have significant share.</p><p><blockquote>无论如何，今年世界各地的人们将购买约 7500 万辆新车，以 30,000 美元（大致）的平均价格计算，销售额将超过 2.2 万亿美元。这大约是手机市场的五倍，手机市场的收入约为 4.5 亿美元。丰田和大众是世界上最大的、也是同类中最好的汽车制造商。其他集团，包括福特F，+1.30%，Stellantis (FCA/标致) STLA，-0.50%，戴姆勒DAI，+2.25%，通用汽车SGM，+0.35%，本田7267，-0.53%HMC，-0.40%，宝马宝马，-0.11%等许多其他集团也拥有重要份额。</blockquote></p><p> This year, Tesla will sell about a million cars, representing a global market share of 1.3%.</p><p><blockquote>今年，特斯拉将销售约100万辆汽车，占全球市场份额1.3%。</blockquote></p><p> And dare I say that each of Tesla’s competitors will be loath to surrender more market share, thus the huge amount of R&amp;D and capital spending they will devote to the upcoming transition to electric vehicles (EVs). On the CAPEX metric alone, we can see that these competitors will actually spend more next year than Tesla.</p><p><blockquote>我敢说，特斯拉的每个竞争对手都不愿意放弃更多的市场份额，因此他们将把巨额研发和资本支出投入到即将到来的电动汽车（EV）转型中。仅从资本支出指标来看，我们可以看到这些竞争对手明年的支出实际上将超过特斯拉。</blockquote></p><p> A lot more.</p><p><blockquote>更多。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0b0383d691f139a5d04a2a94c2bd399\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">ALBERT BRIDGE CAPITAL</p><p><blockquote>艾伯特桥资本</blockquote></p><p> But still, let’s assume all the legacy automakers fail to maintain share. Let’s also envision that most of the profits in the industry will eventually go to Tesla (as they have in handsets to Apple).</p><p><blockquote>不过，我们还是假设所有传统汽车制造商都未能保持市场份额。我们还可以设想，该行业的大部分利润最终将流向特斯拉（就像手机流向苹果一样）。</blockquote></p><p> As a baseline, analysts anticipate that Tesla will generate over $50 billion in sales this year. Over 85% of these sales are related to its automotive business.</p><p><blockquote>作为基线，分析师预计特斯拉今年的销售额将超过 500 亿美元。其中超过 85% 的销售额与其汽车业务有关。</blockquote></p><p> In 2035, if EVs represents 95% of all new cars sold, and Tesla has the same 16% market share as Apple does today (significantly eclipsing that of VW or Toyota), it will be producing 22 million cars and light trucks, and generating sales of over $1 trillion.</p><p><blockquote>到 2035 年，如果电动汽车占所有新车销量的 95%，并且特斯拉拥有与苹果今天相同的 16% 的市场份额（大大超过大众或丰田），那么它将生产 2200 万辆汽车和轻型卡车，销售额将超过 1 万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> This year, analysts anticipate that Tesla will generate nearly $7 billion in adjusted net income (which will include approximately $1.2 billion in profits driven by regulatory credits).</p><p><blockquote>今年，分析师预计特斯拉将产生近 70 亿美元的调整后净利润（其中包括监管信贷推动的约 12 亿美元利润）。</blockquote></p><p> If Tesla were able to generate the same 24% net earnings margin as Apple does today (remember VW is at 5% and Toyota at 7%), then it would produce about $250 billion of earnings in 2035.</p><p><blockquote>如果特斯拉能够产生与苹果今天相同的 24% 净利润率（记住大众为 5%，丰田为 7%），那么它将在 2035 年产生约 2500 亿美元的收益。</blockquote></p><p> As Tesla has grown from zero to one million cars, it has built production facilities in Freemont, Shanghai and soon Austin; battery-producing gigafactories in Nevada, Buffalo, Germany and Austin again; and other manufacturing and tooling facilities in Michigan, Ontario, Shanghai, two more in California and three more in Germany.</p><p><blockquote>随着特斯拉从零到一百万辆汽车的发展，它已经在Freemont、Shanghai和不久的Austin建立了生产设施；内华达州、布法罗、德国和奥斯汀再次出现电池生产超级工厂；以及密歇根州、安大略省、上海的其他制造和模具工厂，加利福尼亚州还有两个工厂，德国还有三个工厂。</blockquote></p><p> To finance this expansion, Tesla went from 35 million diluted shares in 2009 to 641 million in 2015 to over 1.1 billion today. Of course some of these went to key executives in the firm as compensation, but for the most part, this share issuance helped to finance the firm’s stunning growth to date.</p><p><blockquote>为了为此次扩张提供资金，特斯拉从 2009 年的 3500 万股稀释股票增加到 2015 年的 6.41 亿股，再到如今的超过 11 亿股。当然，其中一些作为补偿发给了公司的主要高管，但在很大程度上，这次股票发行为公司迄今为止的惊人增长提供了资金。</blockquote></p><p> And if Tesla is going to build over 20 million units a year (up from about 1 million this year), this will require a lot more capital. But given its strong share price and internal cash flow generation, let’s assume that the rate of new share issuance at Tesla will slow dramatically, to just 1.5% new shares per year. At this rate, they would have “only” 1.4 billion shares in 2035.</p><p><blockquote>如果特斯拉每年要建造超过 2000 万辆汽车（高于今年的约 100 万辆），这将需要更多的资本。但鉴于其强劲的股价和内部现金流，让我们假设特斯拉的新股发行速度将大幅放缓，每年新股发行量仅为 1.5%。按照这个速度，到 2035 年，他们 “只有 ”14 亿股股票。</blockquote></p><p> And in that year, on production of 22 million vehicles at an average selling price of $46,000 (again, our guess) and doing 24% net earnings margins, this $250 billion of earnings would work out to about $178 per share.</p><p><blockquote>那一年，以平均售价 46,000 美元（同样是我们的猜测）生产 2200 万辆汽车，净利润率为 24%，这 2500 亿美元的收益将达到每股约 178 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Given Tesla’s domination in this scenario where it maxes out its market share, the only negative is that it would no longer be a secular story, but one more exposed to the cyclical nature of automaking. So its huge amount of revenue and income would naturally be growing much more slowly by then. But, again for the sake of this exercise, let’s assume that Tesla will still find a way to continue to generate a consistent 10% EPS growth on that $250 billion number.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于特斯拉在这种最大限度地扩大市场份额的情况下占据主导地位，唯一的负面影响是它将不再是一个世俗的故事，而是一个更加暴露于汽车制造周期性的故事。因此，到那时，其巨额收入和收入的增长自然会慢得多。但是，同样为了本次练习的目的，让我们假设特斯拉仍将找到一种方法，在 2500 亿美元的数字上继续实现 10% 的每股收益持续增长。</blockquote></p><p> And despite this slowing, let’s also assume that investors will want to pay a P/E ratio of over 20 for a now huge and cyclical business.</p><p><blockquote>尽管经济放缓，但我们也假设投资者愿意为一家目前规模庞大且具有周期性的企业支付超过 20 的市盈率。</blockquote></p><p> On a P/E of 22.5, that would work out to a market cap of $5.6 trillion, and a share price of $4,000.</p><p><blockquote>如果市盈率为 22.5，那么市值将达到 5.6 万亿美元，股价为 4,000 美元。</blockquote></p><p> These are big numbers. And despite what we hear from the more optimistic of the Tesla bulls, let’s also assume that today’s shareholders only hope to make 10% per year between now and 2035.</p><p><blockquote>这些都是很大的数字。尽管我们从更乐观的特斯拉多头那里听到了一些说法，但让我们也假设，从现在到 2035 年，今天的股东只希望每年赚取 10% 的收益。</blockquote></p><p> If we discount that $4,000 by 10% back to today, the shares are worth $1,050.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们将这 4,000 美元折扣 10%，回到今天，这些股票的价值为 1,050 美元。</blockquote></p><p> That is pretty close to where we are right now.</p><p><blockquote>这与我们现在的情况非常接近。</blockquote></p><p> So all that above is what needs to happen for $1,050 to be a fair share price today.</p><p><blockquote>因此，以上就是 1,050 美元要想成为当今公平的股价需要发生的事情。</blockquote></p><p> Doubters, admittedly like us, will suggest that the execution risk is tremendous, and these market shares (and particularly the margins) may be impossible.</p><p><blockquote>怀疑者，诚然和我们一样，会认为执行风险是巨大的，这些市场份额（尤其是利润率）可能是不可能的。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Yet, despite the fact that we actually can’t ignore the differences between the mobile phone and automobile industries noted above, the believers – who may indeed be right – will literally need to see Apple-esque industry dynamics, market shares and earnings margins for this all to make sense.</p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管我们实际上不能忽视上述手机和汽车行业之间的差异，但信徒们--他们可能确实是对的--确实需要看到苹果式的行业动态、市场份额和利润率，才能让这一切变得有意义。</blockquote></p><p> It is also important to consider that for there to be even more upside in the shares from current levels, Tesla will actually have to exceed everything that Apple has accomplished.</p><p><blockquote>同样重要的是要考虑到，要想让股价在当前水平上有更大的上涨空间，特斯拉实际上必须超越苹果所取得的一切成就。</blockquote></p><p> Whether a bull or a bear, there is no doubting that what Musk has achieved thus far has been nothing short of incredible. Five years ago, few would have thought it even possible that Hertz would order 100,000 Teslas in a single order for its car rental fleet, or that Tesla would produce and sell a million cars in a single year.</p><p><blockquote>无论是牛市还是熊市，毫无疑问，马斯克迄今为止所取得的成就都令人难以置信。五年前，很少有人会想到赫兹会为其汽车租赁车队一次性订购 10 万辆特斯拉，或者特斯拉会在一年内生产和销售 100 万辆汽车。</blockquote></p><p> He will continue to do incredible things.&nbsp; He has changed the world and the mindset of his competitors. None of that is in question. The future that his share price is discounting is the question we are asking today.</p><p><blockquote>他会继续做不可思议的事情。 他改变了世界和竞争对手的心态。这些都是不可能的。他的股价打折的未来是我们今天要问的问题。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/if-tesla-is-to-become-the-apple-of-car-makers-this-is-what-it-means-for-the-stock-price-and-the-business-11635513589?mod=home-page\">Market watch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/if-tesla-is-to-become-the-apple-of-car-makers-this-is-what-it-means-for-the-stock-price-and-the-business-11635513589?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2179471352","content_text":"Fans and shareholders of Tesla are making stronger and louder arguments about the future of their favorite company. In them, they draw analogies to one of the most successful brands and businesses in the history of capitalism. They suggest that automaking may go the way of handset manufacturing and that – for TeslaTSLA,+3.43%– there is a strong resemblance to the AppleAAPL,-1.82%vs. Nokia/Blackberry/Ericsson/Motorola dynamic.\nFor those that don’t know, in the early 2000s it was unimaginable that these legacy mobile phone manufacturers could disappear. In 2006, Research in Motion (RIM), the company making BlackBerrys, lost a patent suit against NTP and a U.S. District Court judge slapped an injunction on sales. The Defense Department stepped in, claiming that a Blackberry injunction was a threat to national security. Meanwhile, industry leader Nokia held a 40% market share and by the end of 2007 sported a $230 billion market cap.\nBut something else happened in 2007.\nSteve Jobs introduced the iPhone.\nAnd that changed the game for Nokia, Blackberry and the entire industry, forever.\nCoincidentally, Jobs introduced that iPhone seven months after Tesla introduced the Roadster at the San Francisco International Auto Show. Fast forward to 2021, and the bulls are suggesting that Apple’s overwhelming success in handset manufacturing can be mirrored in automobile manufacturing by Elon Musk’s Tesla.\nFor this to happen, let’s first assume that within 15 years buyers will demand a broadly similar “form factor” for any vehicle. Today, there are 250 brands of cars sold to fit all appetites and budgets, and perhaps over 1,000 trims. Meanwhile, thanks to the iPhone, handset hardware has gone from a myriad of styles, sizes and forms to basically one.\nSimilarly, let’s imagine that the production and value of automobiles and light trucks will become less about the style or performance that is demanded and instead mostly about the software inside the vehicle.\nFinally (and this is a huge debate, but) let’s presuppose that Tesla will have better software – most importantly better autonomous driving capability – than any other vendor or manufacturer, whether in Silicon Valley, Detroit, Wolfsburg or elsewhere.\nIn other words, let’s assume that Tesla is going to become the Apple of automakers.\nTo do this, we need to ignore that Apple is not just a handset manufacturer. In the first three quarters this year, it reported over $150 billion of iPhone sales, which represented 55% of total sales. It also reported sales from the “Services” segment, which included sales from advertising, digital content, AppleCare and other lines. If we assume all that revenue was driven by the iPhone (even though not all was), then we get the iPhone representing about 65%-70% of Apple’s sales.\nThis implies Apple has a substantial business (about $110 billion this year) selling Macs, iPads, wearables and accessories too. So in our “Tesla is Apple” analogy, we need to assume that Tesla will make similar extensions into new products.\nWe also need to ignore that most of the profit for Apple in handsets comes from mobile advertising and app sales, much of which Apple reports in that services segment noted above. Again, to stay in our framework, we also need to believe that Tesla would generate something similar via its over-the-air updates or its own app store.\nMaking all these assumptions, then future margins in “automaking” – for at least one manufacturer – could theoretically start trending up toward the margins generated today by Apple.\nSo in terms of handset market share, people around the world are going to buy approximately 1.4 billion handsets this year, and the average selling price will be about $320. Apple has about 16% of the global market, and will sell about 225 million iPhones.\nJust guessing here, but if these iPhones are sold at an average price of $890, then the average price of all the other phones sold in the world needs to be about $125 for the math to make sense. And because Apple can sell its iPhone at such a huge premium and produce remarkable revenues from advertising and app store sales, it generates a whopping 24% earnings margin.\nIn comparison, VolkswagenVOW3,-0.49%VWAPY,-2.43%,which started operations in 1938, has worked its way up to a global market share of 12.0% and generates net income margins of 5.0%.\nToyota7203,+0.33%TM,+0.05%,which also started operations in 1938, also has a global market share of 12.0% and generates even better net income margins of approximately 7.0%.\nNokia, for what it is worth, generated 14% net margins before the iPhone changed the game.  In other words, even before Apple showed up, handset manufacturing was over twice as profitable for market leaders as making cars.\nAnyway, folks around the world will buy about 75 million new cars this year, and at an average price of $30,000 (ballpark) this works out to over $2.2 trillion in sales. This is about five times larger than the handset market, which will come in at about $450 million. Toyota and Volkswagen are the largest – and best in class – scale automobile manufacturers in the world. Other groups, including FordF,+1.30%,Stellantis (FCA/Peugeot)STLA,-0.50%,DaimlerDAI,+2.25%,General MotorsGM,+0.35%,Honda7267,-0.53%HMC,-0.40%,BMWBMW,-0.11%and many others also have significant share.\nThis year, Tesla will sell about a million cars, representing a global market share of 1.3%.\nAnd dare I say that each of Tesla’s competitors will be loath to surrender more market share, thus the huge amount of R&D and capital spending they will devote to the upcoming transition to electric vehicles (EVs). On the CAPEX metric alone, we can see that these competitors will actually spend more next year than Tesla.\nA lot more.\nALBERT BRIDGE CAPITAL\nBut still, let’s assume all the legacy automakers fail to maintain share. Let’s also envision that most of the profits in the industry will eventually go to Tesla (as they have in handsets to Apple).\nAs a baseline, analysts anticipate that Tesla will generate over $50 billion in sales this year. Over 85% of these sales are related to its automotive business.\nIn 2035, if EVs represents 95% of all new cars sold, and Tesla has the same 16% market share as Apple does today (significantly eclipsing that of VW or Toyota), it will be producing 22 million cars and light trucks, and generating sales of over $1 trillion.\nThis year, analysts anticipate that Tesla will generate nearly $7 billion in adjusted net income (which will include approximately $1.2 billion in profits driven by regulatory credits).\nIf Tesla were able to generate the same 24% net earnings margin as Apple does today (remember VW is at 5% and Toyota at 7%), then it would produce about $250 billion of earnings in 2035.\nAs Tesla has grown from zero to one million cars, it has built production facilities in Freemont, Shanghai and soon Austin; battery-producing gigafactories in Nevada, Buffalo, Germany and Austin again; and other manufacturing and tooling facilities in Michigan, Ontario, Shanghai, two more in California and three more in Germany.\nTo finance this expansion, Tesla went from 35 million diluted shares in 2009 to 641 million in 2015 to over 1.1 billion today. Of course some of these went to key executives in the firm as compensation, but for the most part, this share issuance helped to finance the firm’s stunning growth to date.\nAnd if Tesla is going to build over 20 million units a year (up from about 1 million this year), this will require a lot more capital. But given its strong share price and internal cash flow generation, let’s assume that the rate of new share issuance at Tesla will slow dramatically, to just 1.5% new shares per year. At this rate, they would have “only” 1.4 billion shares in 2035.\nAnd in that year, on production of 22 million vehicles at an average selling price of $46,000 (again, our guess) and doing 24% net earnings margins, this $250 billion of earnings would work out to about $178 per share.\nGiven Tesla’s domination in this scenario where it maxes out its market share, the only negative is that it would no longer be a secular story, but one more exposed to the cyclical nature of automaking. So its huge amount of revenue and income would naturally be growing much more slowly by then. But, again for the sake of this exercise, let’s assume that Tesla will still find a way to continue to generate a consistent 10% EPS growth on that $250 billion number.\nAnd despite this slowing, let’s also assume that investors will want to pay a P/E ratio of over 20 for a now huge and cyclical business.\nOn a P/E of 22.5, that would work out to a market cap of $5.6 trillion, and a share price of $4,000.\nThese are big numbers. And despite what we hear from the more optimistic of the Tesla bulls, let’s also assume that today’s shareholders only hope to make 10% per year between now and 2035.\nIf we discount that $4,000 by 10% back to today, the shares are worth $1,050.\nThat is pretty close to where we are right now.\nSo all that above is what needs to happen for $1,050 to be a fair share price today.\nDoubters, admittedly like us, will suggest that the execution risk is tremendous, and these market shares (and particularly the margins) may be impossible.\nYet, despite the fact that we actually can’t ignore the differences between the mobile phone and automobile industries noted above, the believers – who may indeed be right – will literally need to see Apple-esque industry dynamics, market shares and earnings margins for this all to make sense.\nIt is also important to consider that for there to be even more upside in the shares from current levels, Tesla will actually have to exceed everything that Apple has accomplished.\nWhether a bull or a bear, there is no doubting that what Musk has achieved thus far has been nothing short of incredible. Five years ago, few would have thought it even possible that Hertz would order 100,000 Teslas in a single order for its car rental fleet, or that Tesla would produce and sell a million cars in a single year.\nHe will continue to do incredible things.  He has changed the world and the mindset of his competitors. None of that is in question. The future that his share price is discounting is the question we are asking today.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4782,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":106905655,"gmtCreate":1620082425777,"gmtModify":1634208067086,"author":{"id":"3576849200483737","authorId":"3576849200483737","name":"Fuzzyfuzzy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83fbe5cf3fa66c4ec89abe62d2856950","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576849200483737","authorIdStr":"3576849200483737"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Morning world","listText":"Morning world","text":"Morning world","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/106905655","repostId":"1135819410","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1135819410","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1619999342,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1135819410?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-03 07:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Uber, Pfizer, PayPal, T-Mobile, ViacomCBS, General Motors, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week<blockquote>Uber、辉瑞、PayPal、T-Mobile、维亚康姆哥伦比亚广播公司、通用汽车等投资者本周值得关注的股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135819410","media":"Barrons","summary":"It’s another packed week of earnings reports, with 130 S&P 500 companies on deck to release their fi","content":"<p>It’s another packed week of earnings reports, with 130 S&amp;P 500 companies on deck to release their first-quarter results. Estée Lauder is among Monday’s highlights, before things pick up on Tuesday:&nbsp;Activision Blizzard, CVS Health, DuPont, Pfizer, and T-Mobile US all report.</p><p><blockquote>又是财报密集的一周，标普500有 130 家公司即将发布第一季度业绩。雅诗兰黛是周一的亮点之一，周二的情况有所好转： 动视暴雪、CVS Health、杜邦、辉瑞和 T-Mobile US 均有报道。</blockquote></p><p>On Wednesday,&nbsp;Barrick Gold, Booking Holdings, General Motors, PayPal Holdings, and Uber Technologies release earnings.&nbsp;Anheuser-Busch InBev, Moderna, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Square, and ViacomCBS go on Thursday. And finally, Cigna closes the week on&nbsp;Friday.</p><p><blockquote>周三，巴里克黄金公司、Booking Holdings、通用汽车、PayPal控股公司和优步科技公司发布财报。百威英博、Moderna、再生元制药、Square和维亚康姆哥伦比亚广播公司将于周四上市。最后，信诺将于周五结束本周。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1a866fbe5118566e68842053d76e2b9\" tg-width=\"1382\" tg-height=\"750\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>On the economic calendar this week, the&nbsp;main event will jobs Friday.&nbsp;The Bureau of Labor Statistics is forecast to report a gain of 975,000 nonfarm payrolls in April, and an unemployment rate of 5.8%—down from 6% a month earlier.</p><p><blockquote>在本周的经济日历上，主要事件将是周五的就业。美国劳工统计局（Bureau of Labor Statistics）预测，4月份非农就业人数将增加97.5万人，失业率为5.8%，低于一个月前的6%。</blockquote></p><p>Other data out this week include the Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for April on Monday and its&nbsp;Services equivalent on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>本周公布的其他数据包括周一公布的美国供应管理协会 (Institute for Supply Management) 4 月份制造业采购经理人指数和周三公布的服务业指数。</blockquote></p><p>Enterprise Products Partners&nbsp;and Estée Lauder release earnings.</p><p><blockquote>企业产品合作伙伴和雅诗兰黛发布收益。</blockquote></p><p>Merck and&nbsp;Public Storage&nbsp;hold virtual investor days.</p><p><blockquote>默克和公共存储举办虚拟投资者日。</blockquote></p><p><b>The Census Bureau</b>&nbsp;reports construction-spending data for March. Consensus estimate is for a 0.6% month-over-month increase in construction spending to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1.53 trillion.</p><p><blockquote><b>人口普查局</b>报告三月份建筑支出数据。普遍估计，经季节性调整后的年增长率为 1.53 万亿美元，建筑支出环比增长 0.6%。</blockquote></p><p><b>The Institute for Supply</b>&nbsp;Management releases its Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for April. Economists forecast a 65 reading, roughly even with the March figure. The March reading was the highest for the index since December 1983.</p><p><blockquote><b>供应研究所</b>管理层发布4月份制造业采购经理人指数。经济学家预测读数为65，与3月份的数字大致持平。3月份的读数是该指数自1983年12月以来的最高水平。</blockquote></p><p><b>Tuesday 5/4</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期二 5/4</b></blockquote></p><p>Activision Blizzard,ConocoPhillips, Cummins, CVS Health,Dominion Energy,DuPont, Eaton, Pfizer,Sysco,and T-Mobile US report quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>动视暴雪、康菲石油公司、康明斯、CVS Health、Dominion Energy、杜邦、伊顿、辉瑞、思科和 T-Mobile US 报告季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p>Eli Lilly&nbsp;holds a conference call to discuss its sustainability initiatives.</p><p><blockquote>礼来公司召开电话会议讨论其可持续发展举措。</blockquote></p><p>Union Pacific&nbsp;holds its 2021 virtual investor day.</p><p><blockquote>联合太平洋举办 2021 年虚拟投资者日。</blockquote></p><p><b>Wednesday 5/5</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期三 5/5</b></blockquote></p><p>Barrick Gold, Booking Holdings,BorgWarner,Emerson Electric,General Motors,Hilton Worldwide Holdings,Novo Nordisk,PayPal Holdings, and Uber Technologies release earnings.</p><p><blockquote>Barrick Gold、Booking Holdings、博格华纳、艾默生电气、通用汽车、希尔顿全球控股公司、诺和诺德、PayPal Holdings 和 Uber Technologies 发布财报。</blockquote></p><p><b>ADP releases</b>&nbsp;its National Employment Report for April. Expectations are for a gain of 762,500 jobs in private-sector employment after a 517,000 increase in March.</p><p><blockquote><b>ADP释放</b>其4月份的全国就业报告。继 3 月份增加 517,000 个就业岗位后，预计私营部门就业岗位将增加 762,500 个。</blockquote></p><p><b>ISM releases</b>&nbsp;its Services PMI for April. The consensus call is for a 64.6 reading, a tick higher than the March data. The March reading was an all-time high for the index.</p><p><blockquote><b>ISM版本</b>其4月份服务业采购经理人指数。普遍看涨期权为 64.6，比 3 月份的数据高出一个档次。三月份的读数是该指数的历史新高。</blockquote></p><p><b>Thursday 5/6</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期四 5/6</b></blockquote></p><p>Anheuser-Busch InBev,Becton Dickinson,Expedia Group,Fidelity National Information Services,Kellogg, Linde,MetLife,Moderna, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Square, ViacomCBS, and&nbsp;Zoetishold conference calls to discuss quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>百威英博、Becton Dickinson、Expedia Group、富达国家信息服务、家乐氏、林德、大都会人寿、Moderna、再生元制药、Square、ViacomCBS 和 Zoetis 在评级举行会议讨论季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p><b>The Department of Labor</b>&nbsp;reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on May 1. Initial jobless claims have averaged 611,750 a week in April and are at their lowest level since March of last year.</p><p><blockquote><b>劳工部</b>报告截至 5 月 1 日当周的首次申请失业救济人数。4月份首次申请失业救济人数平均每周为611,750人，处于去年3月以来的最低水平。</blockquote></p><p><b>The Bureau of Labor</b>&nbsp;Statistics reports labor costs and productivity for the first quarter. Expectations are for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.2% productivity growth, compared with a 4.2% decline in the fourth quarter of 2020. Unit labor costs are seen falling 0.4% after rising 6% previously.</p><p><blockquote><b>劳工局</b>统计数据报告了第一季度的劳动力成本和生产率。预计经季节性调整后的生产率年增长率为 2.2%，而 2020 年第四季度为下降 4.2%。单位劳动力成本在此前上涨 6% 后下降 0.4%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Friday 5/7</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5/7星期五</b></blockquote></p><p><b>The Bureau of Labor</b>&nbsp;Statistics releases the jobs report for April. Economists forecast a gain of 975,000 in nonfarm payroll employment. The unemployment rate is expected to edge down to 5.8% from 6%.</p><p><blockquote><b>劳工局</b>统计局发布了4月份的就业报告。经济学家预测非农就业人数将增加97.5万人。失业率预计将从6%小幅降至5.8%。</blockquote></p><p>Cigna and&nbsp;<b>Liberty Media</b>&nbsp;report earnings.</p><p><blockquote>信诺和<b>自由媒体</b>报告收益。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Uber, Pfizer, PayPal, T-Mobile, ViacomCBS, General Motors, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week<blockquote>Uber、辉瑞、PayPal、T-Mobile、维亚康姆哥伦比亚广播公司、通用汽车等投资者本周值得关注的股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUber, Pfizer, PayPal, T-Mobile, ViacomCBS, General Motors, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week<blockquote>Uber、辉瑞、PayPal、T-Mobile、维亚康姆哥伦比亚广播公司、通用汽车等投资者本周值得关注的股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-03 07:49</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>It’s another packed week of earnings reports, with 130 S&amp;P 500 companies on deck to release their first-quarter results. Estée Lauder is among Monday’s highlights, before things pick up on Tuesday:&nbsp;Activision Blizzard, CVS Health, DuPont, Pfizer, and T-Mobile US all report.</p><p><blockquote>又是财报密集的一周，标普500有 130 家公司即将发布第一季度业绩。雅诗兰黛是周一的亮点之一，周二的情况有所好转： 动视暴雪、CVS Health、杜邦、辉瑞和 T-Mobile US 均有报道。</blockquote></p><p>On Wednesday,&nbsp;Barrick Gold, Booking Holdings, General Motors, PayPal Holdings, and Uber Technologies release earnings.&nbsp;Anheuser-Busch InBev, Moderna, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Square, and ViacomCBS go on Thursday. And finally, Cigna closes the week on&nbsp;Friday.</p><p><blockquote>周三，巴里克黄金公司、Booking Holdings、通用汽车、PayPal控股公司和优步科技公司发布财报。百威英博、Moderna、再生元制药、Square和维亚康姆哥伦比亚广播公司将于周四上市。最后，信诺将于周五结束本周。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1a866fbe5118566e68842053d76e2b9\" tg-width=\"1382\" tg-height=\"750\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>On the economic calendar this week, the&nbsp;main event will jobs Friday.&nbsp;The Bureau of Labor Statistics is forecast to report a gain of 975,000 nonfarm payrolls in April, and an unemployment rate of 5.8%—down from 6% a month earlier.</p><p><blockquote>在本周的经济日历上，主要事件将是周五的就业。美国劳工统计局（Bureau of Labor Statistics）预测，4月份非农就业人数将增加97.5万人，失业率为5.8%，低于一个月前的6%。</blockquote></p><p>Other data out this week include the Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for April on Monday and its&nbsp;Services equivalent on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>本周公布的其他数据包括周一公布的美国供应管理协会 (Institute for Supply Management) 4 月份制造业采购经理人指数和周三公布的服务业指数。</blockquote></p><p>Enterprise Products Partners&nbsp;and Estée Lauder release earnings.</p><p><blockquote>企业产品合作伙伴和雅诗兰黛发布收益。</blockquote></p><p>Merck and&nbsp;Public Storage&nbsp;hold virtual investor days.</p><p><blockquote>默克和公共存储举办虚拟投资者日。</blockquote></p><p><b>The Census Bureau</b>&nbsp;reports construction-spending data for March. Consensus estimate is for a 0.6% month-over-month increase in construction spending to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1.53 trillion.</p><p><blockquote><b>人口普查局</b>报告三月份建筑支出数据。普遍估计，经季节性调整后的年增长率为 1.53 万亿美元，建筑支出环比增长 0.6%。</blockquote></p><p><b>The Institute for Supply</b>&nbsp;Management releases its Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for April. Economists forecast a 65 reading, roughly even with the March figure. The March reading was the highest for the index since December 1983.</p><p><blockquote><b>供应研究所</b>管理层发布4月份制造业采购经理人指数。经济学家预测读数为65，与3月份的数字大致持平。3月份的读数是该指数自1983年12月以来的最高水平。</blockquote></p><p><b>Tuesday 5/4</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期二 5/4</b></blockquote></p><p>Activision Blizzard,ConocoPhillips, Cummins, CVS Health,Dominion Energy,DuPont, Eaton, Pfizer,Sysco,and T-Mobile US report quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>动视暴雪、康菲石油公司、康明斯、CVS Health、Dominion Energy、杜邦、伊顿、辉瑞、思科和 T-Mobile US 报告季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p>Eli Lilly&nbsp;holds a conference call to discuss its sustainability initiatives.</p><p><blockquote>礼来公司召开电话会议讨论其可持续发展举措。</blockquote></p><p>Union Pacific&nbsp;holds its 2021 virtual investor day.</p><p><blockquote>联合太平洋举办 2021 年虚拟投资者日。</blockquote></p><p><b>Wednesday 5/5</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期三 5/5</b></blockquote></p><p>Barrick Gold, Booking Holdings,BorgWarner,Emerson Electric,General Motors,Hilton Worldwide Holdings,Novo Nordisk,PayPal Holdings, and Uber Technologies release earnings.</p><p><blockquote>Barrick Gold、Booking Holdings、博格华纳、艾默生电气、通用汽车、希尔顿全球控股公司、诺和诺德、PayPal Holdings 和 Uber Technologies 发布财报。</blockquote></p><p><b>ADP releases</b>&nbsp;its National Employment Report for April. Expectations are for a gain of 762,500 jobs in private-sector employment after a 517,000 increase in March.</p><p><blockquote><b>ADP释放</b>其4月份的全国就业报告。继 3 月份增加 517,000 个就业岗位后，预计私营部门就业岗位将增加 762,500 个。</blockquote></p><p><b>ISM releases</b>&nbsp;its Services PMI for April. The consensus call is for a 64.6 reading, a tick higher than the March data. The March reading was an all-time high for the index.</p><p><blockquote><b>ISM版本</b>其4月份服务业采购经理人指数。普遍看涨期权为 64.6，比 3 月份的数据高出一个档次。三月份的读数是该指数的历史新高。</blockquote></p><p><b>Thursday 5/6</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期四 5/6</b></blockquote></p><p>Anheuser-Busch InBev,Becton Dickinson,Expedia Group,Fidelity National Information Services,Kellogg, Linde,MetLife,Moderna, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Square, ViacomCBS, and&nbsp;Zoetishold conference calls to discuss quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>百威英博、Becton Dickinson、Expedia Group、富达国家信息服务、家乐氏、林德、大都会人寿、Moderna、再生元制药、Square、ViacomCBS 和 Zoetis 在评级举行会议讨论季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p><b>The Department of Labor</b>&nbsp;reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on May 1. Initial jobless claims have averaged 611,750 a week in April and are at their lowest level since March of last year.</p><p><blockquote><b>劳工部</b>报告截至 5 月 1 日当周的首次申请失业救济人数。4月份首次申请失业救济人数平均每周为611,750人，处于去年3月以来的最低水平。</blockquote></p><p><b>The Bureau of Labor</b>&nbsp;Statistics reports labor costs and productivity for the first quarter. Expectations are for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.2% productivity growth, compared with a 4.2% decline in the fourth quarter of 2020. Unit labor costs are seen falling 0.4% after rising 6% previously.</p><p><blockquote><b>劳工局</b>统计数据报告了第一季度的劳动力成本和生产率。预计经季节性调整后的生产率年增长率为 2.2%，而 2020 年第四季度为下降 4.2%。单位劳动力成本在此前上涨 6% 后下降 0.4%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Friday 5/7</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5/7星期五</b></blockquote></p><p><b>The Bureau of Labor</b>&nbsp;Statistics releases the jobs report for April. Economists forecast a gain of 975,000 in nonfarm payroll employment. The unemployment rate is expected to edge down to 5.8% from 6%.</p><p><blockquote><b>劳工局</b>统计局发布了4月份的就业报告。经济学家预测非农就业人数将增加97.5万人。失业率预计将从6%小幅降至5.8%。</blockquote></p><p>Cigna and&nbsp;<b>Liberty Media</b>&nbsp;report earnings.</p><p><blockquote>信诺和<b>自由媒体</b>报告收益。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/uber-pfizer-paypal-t-mobile-viacomcbs-general-motors-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51619982000?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_2\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PYPL":"PayPal","GM":"通用汽车",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","UBER":"优步","TMUS":"T-Mobile US Inc","PFE":"辉瑞",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/uber-pfizer-paypal-t-mobile-viacomcbs-general-motors-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51619982000?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1135819410","content_text":"It’s another packed week of earnings reports, with 130 S&P 500 companies on deck to release their first-quarter results. Estée Lauder is among Monday’s highlights, before things pick up on Tuesday: Activision Blizzard, CVS Health, DuPont, Pfizer, and T-Mobile US all report.On Wednesday, Barrick Gold, Booking Holdings, General Motors, PayPal Holdings, and Uber Technologies release earnings. Anheuser-Busch InBev, Moderna, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Square, and ViacomCBS go on Thursday. And finally, Cigna closes the week on Friday.On the economic calendar this week, the main event will jobs Friday. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is forecast to report a gain of 975,000 nonfarm payrolls in April, and an unemployment rate of 5.8%—down from 6% a month earlier.Other data out this week include the Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for April on Monday and its Services equivalent on Wednesday.Enterprise Products Partners and Estée Lauder release earnings.Merck and Public Storage hold virtual investor days.The Census Bureau reports construction-spending data for March. Consensus estimate is for a 0.6% month-over-month increase in construction spending to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1.53 trillion.The Institute for Supply Management releases its Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for April. Economists forecast a 65 reading, roughly even with the March figure. The March reading was the highest for the index since December 1983.Tuesday 5/4Activision Blizzard,ConocoPhillips, Cummins, CVS Health,Dominion Energy,DuPont, Eaton, Pfizer,Sysco,and T-Mobile US report quarterly results.Eli Lilly holds a conference call to discuss its sustainability initiatives.Union Pacific holds its 2021 virtual investor day.Wednesday 5/5Barrick Gold, Booking Holdings,BorgWarner,Emerson Electric,General Motors,Hilton Worldwide Holdings,Novo Nordisk,PayPal Holdings, and Uber Technologies release earnings.ADP releases its National Employment Report for April. Expectations are for a gain of 762,500 jobs in private-sector employment after a 517,000 increase in March.ISM releases its Services PMI for April. The consensus call is for a 64.6 reading, a tick higher than the March data. The March reading was an all-time high for the index.Thursday 5/6Anheuser-Busch InBev,Becton Dickinson,Expedia Group,Fidelity National Information Services,Kellogg, Linde,MetLife,Moderna, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Square, ViacomCBS, and Zoetishold conference calls to discuss quarterly results.The Department of Labor reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on May 1. Initial jobless claims have averaged 611,750 a week in April and are at their lowest level since March of last year.The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports labor costs and productivity for the first quarter. Expectations are for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.2% productivity growth, compared with a 4.2% decline in the fourth quarter of 2020. Unit labor costs are seen falling 0.4% after rising 6% previously.Friday 5/7The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the jobs report for April. Economists forecast a gain of 975,000 in nonfarm payroll employment. The unemployment rate is expected to edge down to 5.8% from 6%.Cigna and Liberty Media report earnings.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PFE":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"VIACP":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"TMUS":0.9,"PYPL":0.9,"UBER":0.9,"GM":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":633,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":134580427,"gmtCreate":1622248458469,"gmtModify":1634182520154,"author":{"id":"3576849200483737","authorId":"3576849200483737","name":"Fuzzyfuzzy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83fbe5cf3fa66c4ec89abe62d2856950","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576849200483737","authorIdStr":"3576849200483737"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Lalala&nbsp;","listText":"Lalala&nbsp;","text":"Lalala","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/134580427","repostId":"2138948877","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":596,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124466098,"gmtCreate":1624781908114,"gmtModify":1631891224790,"author":{"id":"3576849200483737","authorId":"3576849200483737","name":"Fuzzyfuzzy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83fbe5cf3fa66c4ec89abe62d2856950","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576849200483737","authorIdStr":"3576849200483737"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Cool","listText":"Cool","text":"Cool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124466098","repostId":"2146090006","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":631,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":378150775,"gmtCreate":1619012469597,"gmtModify":1634289236334,"author":{"id":"3576849200483737","authorId":"3576849200483737","name":"Fuzzyfuzzy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83fbe5cf3fa66c4ec89abe62d2856950","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576849200483737","authorIdStr":"3576849200483737"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Cool","listText":"Cool","text":"Cool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/378150775","repostId":"2129829074","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":569,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":357934174,"gmtCreate":1617230298098,"gmtModify":1634521981224,"author":{"id":"3576849200483737","authorId":"3576849200483737","name":"Fuzzyfuzzy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83fbe5cf3fa66c4ec89abe62d2856950","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576849200483737","authorIdStr":"3576849200483737"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Course on trading incoming","listText":"Course on trading incoming","text":"Course on trading incoming","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/357934174","repostId":"1127322570","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":475,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":375326944,"gmtCreate":1619310741688,"gmtModify":1634274378459,"author":{"id":"3576849200483737","authorId":"3576849200483737","name":"Fuzzyfuzzy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83fbe5cf3fa66c4ec89abe62d2856950","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576849200483737","authorIdStr":"3576849200483737"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Comment for 10 coins","listText":"Comment for 10 coins","text":"Comment for 10 coins","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/375326944","repostId":"1166519043","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":480,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":341838027,"gmtCreate":1617801911169,"gmtModify":1634296439507,"author":{"id":"3576849200483737","authorId":"3576849200483737","name":"Fuzzyfuzzy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83fbe5cf3fa66c4ec89abe62d2856950","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576849200483737","authorIdStr":"3576849200483737"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Leave a comment","listText":"Leave a comment","text":"Leave a comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/341838027","repostId":"2125747579","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":474,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":352617770,"gmtCreate":1616947934790,"gmtModify":1634523439678,"author":{"id":"3576849200483737","authorId":"3576849200483737","name":"Fuzzyfuzzy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83fbe5cf3fa66c4ec89abe62d2856950","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576849200483737","authorIdStr":"3576849200483737"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Make 1 post in the community.&nbsp;","listText":"Make 1 post in the community.&nbsp;","text":"Make 1 post in the community.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/352617770","repostId":"1111192234","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1111192234","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616772179,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1111192234?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-26 23:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Deliveries Are Coming. They Matter More Than Ever. Here’s What to Expect.<blockquote>特斯拉快递来了。它们比以往任何时候都更重要。以下是可以期待的。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1111192234","media":"Barrons","summary":"The first quarter ends in just a few days. That means more delivery data from auto makers is due. For investors, the figures will be higher stakes than usual. The reason is simple: The global automotive microchip shortage is roiling the entire car business.Numbers will matter even more for richly valued, high-growth companies such as Tesla. Tesla investors want growth, and the chip situation is squeezing growth. Both General Motors and Ford Motor have taken unexpected plant downtime recently and","content":"<p>The first quarter ends in just a few days. That means more delivery data from auto makers is due. For investors, the figures will be higher stakes than usual. The reason is simple: The global automotive microchip shortage is roiling the entire car business.</p><p><blockquote>第一季度还有几天就结束了。这意味着汽车制造商将提供更多交付数据。对于投资者来说，这些数字将比平时更高。原因很简单：全球汽车微芯片短缺正在扰乱整个汽车行业。</blockquote></p><p> Numbers will matter even more for richly valued, high-growth companies such as&nbsp;Tesla(ticker: TSLA). Tesla investors want growth, and the chip situation is squeezing growth. Both&nbsp;General Motors(GM) and&nbsp;Ford Motor(F) have taken unexpected plant downtime recently and have called the chip issue a billion-dollar profit headwind for 2021. That’s not what investors want to hear.</p><p><blockquote>对于特斯拉（股票代码：TSLA）等高估值、高增长的公司来说，数字将更加重要。特斯拉投资者想要增长，而芯片形势正在挤压增长。通用汽车 (GM) 和福特汽车 (F) 最近都意外停工，并称芯片问题是 2021 年数十亿美元的利润阻力。这不是投资者想听到的。</blockquote></p><p> Everyone is aware of the issue. Still, when first-quarter data is released, investors have to decide whether or not to give Tesla, or any other fast-growing EV maker, a pass if results are weaker than expected.</p><p><blockquote>每个人都意识到这个问题。尽管如此，当第一季度数据公布时，如果业绩弱于预期，投资者必须决定是否给予特斯拉或任何其他快速增长的电动汽车制造商通行证。</blockquote></p><p> So far the market isn’t feeling charitable. But the sample size is only one stock.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，市场并不乐观。但样本量只有一只股票。</blockquote></p><p> NIO&nbsp;shares (NIO) are down more than 6% in Friday trading after the EV maker&nbsp;reduced guidance&nbsp;for first-quarter deliveries from about 20,250 cars to about 19,500. NIO management cited the chip shortage and is shutting a manufacturing plant for five days starting March 29.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来（蔚来）股价在周五交易中下跌超过 6%，此前这家电动汽车制造商将第一季度交付量指引从约 20,250 辆下调至约 19,500 辆。蔚来管理层以芯片短缺为由，将从 3 月 29 日开始关闭一家制造工厂五天。</blockquote></p><p> For Tesla, Wall Street is looking for about 162,000 vehicles delivered in March. That’s down from a peak estimate of about 183,000 vehicles. Analysts seem to be reducing numbers, possibly because of the shortage.</p><p><blockquote>对于特斯拉来说，华尔街正在寻找 3 月份交付的约 162,000 辆汽车。这低于最高估计的约 18.3 万辆汽车。分析师似乎正在减少数字，可能是因为短缺。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla delivered about 181,000 vehicles in the&nbsp;fourth quarter. For the full year 2021, analysts are looking for almost 800,000 vehicle deliveries, up about 60% year over year.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉第四季度交付了约 181,000 辆汽车。对于 2021 年全年，分析师预计将交付近 80 万辆汽车，同比增长约 60%。</blockquote></p><p> RBC analyst&nbsp;Joe Spak&nbsp;is forecasting 170,000 first-quarter deliveries, up more than 90% year over year. He also forecasts Tesla will make 96,000 cars in California and 74,000 cars in China during the quarter. “Consensus [estimate] looks mostly reasonable,” wrote Spak in a Thursday report. “We do look for updates to see how the semi shortage is impacting&nbsp;Tesla—as it has the rest of the industry.” He sees some additional downside risk to estimates, especially for second-quarter numbers, because of chips.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大皇家银行分析师乔·斯帕克 (Joe Spak) 预测第一季度交付量为 170,000 辆，同比增长 90% 以上。他还预测，特斯拉本季度将在加州生产 96,000 辆汽车，在华生产 74,000 辆汽车。“Spak在周四的一份报告中写道：”共识[估计]看起来大多是合理的。“我们确实在寻找最新消息，看看半短缺对特斯拉的影响--就像对整个行业的影响一样。”他认为，由于芯片的影响，预测存在一些额外的下行风险，尤其是第二季度的数据。</blockquote></p><p> Spak rates Tesla stock Hold and has a $725 price target for shares.</p><p><blockquote>Spak 将特斯拉股票评级为持有，目标股价为 725 美元。</blockquote></p><p> In the case of Tesla stock, the chip shortage has taken a back seat to rising interest rates. Rising rateshit growth stocksin two main ways. For starters, it makes growth more expensive to finance. NIO isn’t profitable yet. High-growth companies generate most of their cash flow far in the future. That cash flow is worth a little less, relatively speaking, when investors can earn higher interest rates on their cash today.</p><p><blockquote>就特斯拉股票而言，芯片短缺已经让位于利率上升。增长率上升主要有两种方式。首先，这使得增长的融资成本更高。蔚来尚未盈利。高增长公司的大部分现金流是在未来很长一段时间内产生的。相对而言，当投资者今天可以从现金中获得更高的利率时，这种现金流的价值就会降低一些。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla stock is down roughly 10% year to date after rising more than 740% in 2020. Shares are down 0.9% in early Friday trading, at $634.40. The&nbsp;S&amp;P 500is up about 0.7%.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价在 2020 年上涨超过 740% 后，今年迄今已下跌约 10%。周五早盘交易中，股价下跌 0.9%，至 634.40 美元。标准普尔500指数上涨约0.7%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Deliveries Are Coming. They Matter More Than Ever. Here’s What to Expect.<blockquote>特斯拉快递来了。它们比以往任何时候都更重要。以下是可以期待的。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Deliveries Are Coming. They Matter More Than Ever. Here’s What to Expect.<blockquote>特斯拉快递来了。它们比以往任何时候都更重要。以下是可以期待的。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-26 23:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The first quarter ends in just a few days. That means more delivery data from auto makers is due. For investors, the figures will be higher stakes than usual. The reason is simple: The global automotive microchip shortage is roiling the entire car business.</p><p><blockquote>第一季度还有几天就结束了。这意味着汽车制造商将提供更多交付数据。对于投资者来说，这些数字将比平时更高。原因很简单：全球汽车微芯片短缺正在扰乱整个汽车行业。</blockquote></p><p> Numbers will matter even more for richly valued, high-growth companies such as&nbsp;Tesla(ticker: TSLA). Tesla investors want growth, and the chip situation is squeezing growth. Both&nbsp;General Motors(GM) and&nbsp;Ford Motor(F) have taken unexpected plant downtime recently and have called the chip issue a billion-dollar profit headwind for 2021. That’s not what investors want to hear.</p><p><blockquote>对于特斯拉（股票代码：TSLA）等高估值、高增长的公司来说，数字将更加重要。特斯拉投资者想要增长，而芯片形势正在挤压增长。通用汽车 (GM) 和福特汽车 (F) 最近都意外停工，并称芯片问题是 2021 年数十亿美元的利润阻力。这不是投资者想听到的。</blockquote></p><p> Everyone is aware of the issue. Still, when first-quarter data is released, investors have to decide whether or not to give Tesla, or any other fast-growing EV maker, a pass if results are weaker than expected.</p><p><blockquote>每个人都意识到这个问题。尽管如此，当第一季度数据公布时，如果业绩弱于预期，投资者必须决定是否给予特斯拉或任何其他快速增长的电动汽车制造商通行证。</blockquote></p><p> So far the market isn’t feeling charitable. But the sample size is only one stock.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，市场并不乐观。但样本量只有一只股票。</blockquote></p><p> NIO&nbsp;shares (NIO) are down more than 6% in Friday trading after the EV maker&nbsp;reduced guidance&nbsp;for first-quarter deliveries from about 20,250 cars to about 19,500. NIO management cited the chip shortage and is shutting a manufacturing plant for five days starting March 29.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来（蔚来）股价在周五交易中下跌超过 6%，此前这家电动汽车制造商将第一季度交付量指引从约 20,250 辆下调至约 19,500 辆。蔚来管理层以芯片短缺为由，将从 3 月 29 日开始关闭一家制造工厂五天。</blockquote></p><p> For Tesla, Wall Street is looking for about 162,000 vehicles delivered in March. That’s down from a peak estimate of about 183,000 vehicles. Analysts seem to be reducing numbers, possibly because of the shortage.</p><p><blockquote>对于特斯拉来说，华尔街正在寻找 3 月份交付的约 162,000 辆汽车。这低于最高估计的约 18.3 万辆汽车。分析师似乎正在减少数字，可能是因为短缺。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla delivered about 181,000 vehicles in the&nbsp;fourth quarter. For the full year 2021, analysts are looking for almost 800,000 vehicle deliveries, up about 60% year over year.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉第四季度交付了约 181,000 辆汽车。对于 2021 年全年，分析师预计将交付近 80 万辆汽车，同比增长约 60%。</blockquote></p><p> RBC analyst&nbsp;Joe Spak&nbsp;is forecasting 170,000 first-quarter deliveries, up more than 90% year over year. He also forecasts Tesla will make 96,000 cars in California and 74,000 cars in China during the quarter. “Consensus [estimate] looks mostly reasonable,” wrote Spak in a Thursday report. “We do look for updates to see how the semi shortage is impacting&nbsp;Tesla—as it has the rest of the industry.” He sees some additional downside risk to estimates, especially for second-quarter numbers, because of chips.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大皇家银行分析师乔·斯帕克 (Joe Spak) 预测第一季度交付量为 170,000 辆，同比增长 90% 以上。他还预测，特斯拉本季度将在加州生产 96,000 辆汽车，在华生产 74,000 辆汽车。“Spak在周四的一份报告中写道：”共识[估计]看起来大多是合理的。“我们确实在寻找最新消息，看看半短缺对特斯拉的影响--就像对整个行业的影响一样。”他认为，由于芯片的影响，预测存在一些额外的下行风险，尤其是第二季度的数据。</blockquote></p><p> Spak rates Tesla stock Hold and has a $725 price target for shares.</p><p><blockquote>Spak 将特斯拉股票评级为持有，目标股价为 725 美元。</blockquote></p><p> In the case of Tesla stock, the chip shortage has taken a back seat to rising interest rates. Rising rateshit growth stocksin two main ways. For starters, it makes growth more expensive to finance. NIO isn’t profitable yet. High-growth companies generate most of their cash flow far in the future. That cash flow is worth a little less, relatively speaking, when investors can earn higher interest rates on their cash today.</p><p><blockquote>就特斯拉股票而言，芯片短缺已经让位于利率上升。增长率上升主要有两种方式。首先，这使得增长的融资成本更高。蔚来尚未盈利。高增长公司的大部分现金流是在未来很长一段时间内产生的。相对而言，当投资者今天可以从现金中获得更高的利率时，这种现金流的价值就会降低一些。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla stock is down roughly 10% year to date after rising more than 740% in 2020. Shares are down 0.9% in early Friday trading, at $634.40. The&nbsp;S&amp;P 500is up about 0.7%.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价在 2020 年上涨超过 740% 后，今年迄今已下跌约 10%。周五早盘交易中，股价下跌 0.9%，至 634.40 美元。标准普尔500指数上涨约0.7%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-deliveries-are-coming-they-matter-more-than-ever-heres-what-to-expect-51616769819?mod=hp_DAY_Theme_1_3\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-deliveries-are-coming-they-matter-more-than-ever-heres-what-to-expect-51616769819?mod=hp_DAY_Theme_1_3","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1111192234","content_text":"The first quarter ends in just a few days. That means more delivery data from auto makers is due. For investors, the figures will be higher stakes than usual. The reason is simple: The global automotive microchip shortage is roiling the entire car business.\nNumbers will matter even more for richly valued, high-growth companies such as Tesla(ticker: TSLA). Tesla investors want growth, and the chip situation is squeezing growth. Both General Motors(GM) and Ford Motor(F) have taken unexpected plant downtime recently and have called the chip issue a billion-dollar profit headwind for 2021. That’s not what investors want to hear.\nEveryone is aware of the issue. Still, when first-quarter data is released, investors have to decide whether or not to give Tesla, or any other fast-growing EV maker, a pass if results are weaker than expected.\nSo far the market isn’t feeling charitable. But the sample size is only one stock.\nNIO shares (NIO) are down more than 6% in Friday trading after the EV maker reduced guidance for first-quarter deliveries from about 20,250 cars to about 19,500. NIO management cited the chip shortage and is shutting a manufacturing plant for five days starting March 29.\nFor Tesla, Wall Street is looking for about 162,000 vehicles delivered in March. That’s down from a peak estimate of about 183,000 vehicles. Analysts seem to be reducing numbers, possibly because of the shortage.\nTesla delivered about 181,000 vehicles in the fourth quarter. For the full year 2021, analysts are looking for almost 800,000 vehicle deliveries, up about 60% year over year.\nRBC analyst Joe Spak is forecasting 170,000 first-quarter deliveries, up more than 90% year over year. He also forecasts Tesla will make 96,000 cars in California and 74,000 cars in China during the quarter. “Consensus [estimate] looks mostly reasonable,” wrote Spak in a Thursday report. “We do look for updates to see how the semi shortage is impacting Tesla—as it has the rest of the industry.” He sees some additional downside risk to estimates, especially for second-quarter numbers, because of chips.\nSpak rates Tesla stock Hold and has a $725 price target for shares.\nIn the case of Tesla stock, the chip shortage has taken a back seat to rising interest rates. Rising rateshit growth stocksin two main ways. For starters, it makes growth more expensive to finance. NIO isn’t profitable yet. High-growth companies generate most of their cash flow far in the future. That cash flow is worth a little less, relatively speaking, when investors can earn higher interest rates on their cash today.\nTesla stock is down roughly 10% year to date after rising more than 740% in 2020. Shares are down 0.9% in early Friday trading, at $634.40. The S&P 500is up about 0.7%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":430,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}