30ad6cc的个人主页 - 老虎社区

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2021-06-27

Okay

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2021-05-30

Walao eh

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2021-05-30

Ok sure

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2021-05-10

Sharing this stock

2021-05-10

Ok lah

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2021-05-10

Yup that's right

US government declares emergency after cyberattack on major pipeline<blockquote>美国政府在主要管道遭到网络攻击后宣布进入紧急状态</blockquote>

2021-04-29

Amazing news

NIO Q1 2021 Earnings Report Preview: What to Look For<blockquote>蔚来2021年第一季度收益报告预览：寻找什么</blockquote>

2021-04-28

Ok can

Microsoft sales grow on cloud strength, shares dip on heightened valuation<blockquote>微软销售额因云实力而增长，股价因估值上升而下跌</blockquote>

2021-04-28

Yay great

AMD stock rises after earnings show data-center sales more than doubling<blockquote>财报显示数据中心销售额增长一倍多后，AMD股价上涨</blockquote>

2021-04-23

Sharing for coin

2021-04-18

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$544 Billion In Options Expire Today: Here's What Will Move<blockquote>5440亿美元期权今天到期：以下是将发生的变化</blockquote>

2021-04-15

Pls like and comment

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2021-04-06

Great

2021-04-06

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2021-03-11

Okay this is a stock

2021-03-11

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The Rise of the Retail Trader – How the Stimulus Money Finds Its Way to the Stock Market<blockquote>散户交易者的崛起——刺激资金如何进入股市</blockquote>

2021-03-10

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The Equity-Gold Price Conundrum, Part 1: The Great Batsby<blockquote>股票-黄金价格难题，第1部分：伟大的蝙蝠侠</blockquote>

2021-03-09

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2021-03-08

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Apple stock sank more than 2%<blockquote>苹果股价下跌逾2%</blockquote>

2021-03-04

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2 Hot 5G Stocks to Buy Before They Explode<blockquote>2只热门5G股票在爆炸前买入</blockquote>

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detected.</p><p><blockquote>美国政府周日宣布进入地区紧急状态，因为在发现重大勒索软件攻击两天后，美国最大的燃料管道系统仍基本关闭。</blockquote></p><p>The Colonial Pipeline Company ships gasoline and jet fuel from the Gulf Coast of Texas to the populousEast Coastthrough 5,500 miles (8,850 kilometres) of pipeline, serving 50 million consumers.</p><p><blockquote>Colonial Pipeline Company通过5,500英里（8,850公里）的管道将汽油和喷气燃料从德克萨斯州墨西哥湾沿岸运送到人口稠密的东海岸，为5,000万消费者提供服务。</blockquote></p><p>The company said it was the victim of acybersecurity attackinvolving ransomware -- attacks that encrypt computer systems and seek to extract payments from operators.</p><p><blockquote>该公司表示，它是涉及勒索软件的网络安全攻击的受害者，这种攻击加密计算机系统并试图从运营商那里提取付款。</blockquote></p><p>\"This Declaration addresses the emergency conditions creating a need for immediate transportation of gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and other refined petroleum products and provides necessary relief,\" the Department of Transportation said in a statement.</p><p><blockquote>美国交通部在一份声明中表示：“该声明解决了需要立即运输汽油、柴油、喷气燃料和其他精炼石油产品的紧急情况，并提供了必要的救济。”</blockquote></p><p>The emergency declaration allows for fuel to be transported by road to the affected states: Alabama, Arkansas, District of Columbia, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, New Jersey,New York, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas and Virginia.</p><p><blockquote>紧急声明允许燃料通过公路运输到受影响的州：阿拉巴马州、阿肯色州、哥伦比亚特区、特拉华州、佛罗里达州、佐治亚州、肯塔基州、路易斯安那州、马里兰州、密西西比州、新泽西州、纽约州、北卡罗来纳州、宾夕法尼亚州、南卡罗来纳州、田纳西州、德克萨斯州和弗吉尼亚州。</blockquote></p><p>The declaration also provides regulatory relief to commercial motor vehicle operations that are part of the emergency support efforts.</p><p><blockquote>该宣言还为作为紧急支持工作一部分的商业机动车辆运营提供了监管救济。</blockquote></p><p>Colonial said earlier Sunday that it had opened some smaller delivery lines, but the main system was not yet back up and running.</p><p><blockquote>Colonial周日早些时候表示，它已经开通了一些较小的输送线路，但主要系统尚未恢复运行。</blockquote></p><p>\"While our mainlines remain offline, some smaller lateral lines between terminals and delivery points are now operational,\" Colonial said in a statement, adding it would \"bring our full system back online only when we believe it is safe to do so.\"</p><p><blockquote>Colonial在一份声明中表示：“虽然我们的主线仍然离线，但航站楼和交付点之间的一些较小的支线现已投入运营。”他补充说，“只有在我们认为安全的情况下，我们的整个系统才会恢复上线。”</blockquote></p><p>\"We have remained in contact with law enforcement and other federal agencies, including the Department of Energy who is leading the Federal Government response,\" it added.</p><p><blockquote>它补充说：“我们一直与执法部门和其他联邦机构保持联系，包括领导联邦政府应对措施的能源部。”</blockquote></p><p>\"Maintaining the operational security of our pipeline, in addition to safely bringing our systems back online, remain our highest priorities.\"</p><p><blockquote>“除了安全地使我们的系统恢复在线之外，维护我们管道的运营安全仍然是我们的首要任务。”</blockquote></p><p><b>Calls for improved oversight</b></p><p><blockquote><b>改善监督的评级</b></blockquote></p><p>Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo told CBS on Sunday that authorities were working to prevent any disruption to supplies.</p><p><blockquote>商务部长吉娜·雷蒙多周日告诉哥伦比亚广播公司，当局正在努力防止供应中断。</blockquote></p><p>Colonial, based in the southern state of Georgia, is the largest pipeline operator in the United States by volume, normally transporting 2.5 million barrels of gasoline, diesel fuel, jet fuel and other refined petroleum products per day.</p><p><blockquote>Colonial总部位于南部佐治亚州，是美国运量最大的管道运营商，通常每天运输250万桶汽油、柴油、喷气燃料和其他精炼石油产品。</blockquote></p><p>The attack prompted calls from cybersecurity experts for improved oversight of the industry to prepare for future threats.</p><p><blockquote>此次攻击促使网络安全专家发出评级，要求改善对该行业的监管，为未来的威胁做好准备。</blockquote></p><p>\"This attack is unusual for the US. But the bottom line is that attacks targeting operational technology -- the industrial control systems on the production line or plant floor -- are becoming more frequent,\" Algirde Pipikaite, cyber strategy lead at the World Economic Forum's Centre for Cybersecurity, told AFP on Saturday.</p><p><blockquote>世界经济论坛网络战略负责人阿尔吉德·皮皮凯特（Algirde Pipikaite）周六告诉法新社：“这次攻击对美国来说是不寻常的。但底线是，针对运营技术（生产线或工厂车间的工业控制系统）的攻击变得越来越频繁。”论坛网络安全中心。</blockquote></p><p>\"Unless cybersecurity measures are embedded in a technology's development phase, we are likely to see more frequent attacks on industrial systems like oil and gas pipelines or water treatment plants.\"</p><p><blockquote>“除非在技术开发阶段嵌入网络安全措施，否则我们可能会看到针对石油和天然气管道或水处理厂等工业系统的更频繁攻击。”</blockquote></p><p>Gas prices jumped in the United States on Sunday following the ransomware attack. Analysts warn that prices could climb even higher if the pipeline is not reopened soon. Oil prices rose more than one percent Monday.</p><p><blockquote>勒索软件攻击后，周日美国汽油价格飙升。分析师警告说，如果管道不尽快重新开放，价格可能会攀升得更高。周一油价上涨超过1%。</blockquote></p><p>The United States was rocked in recent months by news of two major cybersecurity breaches -- the SolarWinds hack that compromised thousands of US government and private sector computer networks and was officially blamed on Russia; and a potentially devastating penetration of Microsoft email servers.</p><p><blockquote>最近几个月，两起重大网络安全漏洞的消息震惊了美国——网络安全管理软件产品黑客入侵了数千个美国政府和私营部门的计算机网络，并被官方归咎于俄罗斯；以及对微软电子邮件服务器的潜在毁灭性渗透。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1620623854247","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US government declares emergency after 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.h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS government declares emergency after cyberattack on major pipeline<blockquote>美国政府在主要管道遭到网络攻击后宣布进入紧急状态</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">AFP</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-10 13:17</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The US government declared a regional emergency Sunday as the largest fuel pipeline system in the United States remained largely shut down, two days after a major ransomware attack was detected.</p><p><blockquote>美国政府周日宣布进入地区紧急状态，因为在发现重大勒索软件攻击两天后，美国最大的燃料管道系统仍基本关闭。</blockquote></p><p>The Colonial Pipeline Company ships gasoline and jet fuel from the Gulf Coast of Texas to the populousEast Coastthrough 5,500 miles (8,850 kilometres) of pipeline, serving 50 million consumers.</p><p><blockquote>Colonial Pipeline Company通过5,500英里（8,850公里）的管道将汽油和喷气燃料从德克萨斯州墨西哥湾沿岸运送到人口稠密的东海岸，为5,000万消费者提供服务。</blockquote></p><p>The company said it was the victim of acybersecurity attackinvolving ransomware -- attacks that encrypt computer systems and seek to extract payments from operators.</p><p><blockquote>该公司表示，它是涉及勒索软件的网络安全攻击的受害者，这种攻击加密计算机系统并试图从运营商那里提取付款。</blockquote></p><p>\"This Declaration addresses the emergency conditions creating a need for immediate transportation of gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and other refined petroleum products and provides necessary relief,\" the Department of Transportation said in a statement.</p><p><blockquote>美国交通部在一份声明中表示：“该声明解决了需要立即运输汽油、柴油、喷气燃料和其他精炼石油产品的紧急情况，并提供了必要的救济。”</blockquote></p><p>The emergency declaration allows for fuel to be transported by road to the affected states: Alabama, Arkansas, District of Columbia, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, New Jersey,New York, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas and Virginia.</p><p><blockquote>紧急声明允许燃料通过公路运输到受影响的州：阿拉巴马州、阿肯色州、哥伦比亚特区、特拉华州、佛罗里达州、佐治亚州、肯塔基州、路易斯安那州、马里兰州、密西西比州、新泽西州、纽约州、北卡罗来纳州、宾夕法尼亚州、南卡罗来纳州、田纳西州、德克萨斯州和弗吉尼亚州。</blockquote></p><p>The declaration also provides regulatory relief to commercial motor vehicle operations that are part of the emergency support efforts.</p><p><blockquote>该宣言还为作为紧急支持工作一部分的商业机动车辆运营提供了监管救济。</blockquote></p><p>Colonial said earlier Sunday that it had opened some smaller delivery lines, but the main system was not yet back up and running.</p><p><blockquote>Colonial周日早些时候表示，它已经开通了一些较小的输送线路，但主要系统尚未恢复运行。</blockquote></p><p>\"While our mainlines remain offline, some smaller lateral lines between terminals and delivery points are now operational,\" Colonial said in a statement, adding it would \"bring our full system back online only when we believe it is safe to do so.\"</p><p><blockquote>Colonial在一份声明中表示：“虽然我们的主线仍然离线，但航站楼和交付点之间的一些较小的支线现已投入运营。”他补充说，“只有在我们认为安全的情况下，我们的整个系统才会恢复上线。”</blockquote></p><p>\"We have remained in contact with law enforcement and other federal agencies, including the Department of Energy who is leading the Federal Government response,\" it added.</p><p><blockquote>它补充说：“我们一直与执法部门和其他联邦机构保持联系，包括领导联邦政府应对措施的能源部。”</blockquote></p><p>\"Maintaining the operational security of our pipeline, in addition to safely bringing our systems back online, remain our highest priorities.\"</p><p><blockquote>“除了安全地使我们的系统恢复在线之外，维护我们管道的运营安全仍然是我们的首要任务。”</blockquote></p><p><b>Calls for improved oversight</b></p><p><blockquote><b>改善监督的评级</b></blockquote></p><p>Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo told CBS on Sunday that authorities were working to prevent any disruption to supplies.</p><p><blockquote>商务部长吉娜·雷蒙多周日告诉哥伦比亚广播公司，当局正在努力防止供应中断。</blockquote></p><p>Colonial, based in the southern state of Georgia, is the largest pipeline operator in the United States by volume, normally transporting 2.5 million barrels of gasoline, diesel fuel, jet fuel and other refined petroleum products per day.</p><p><blockquote>Colonial总部位于南部佐治亚州，是美国运量最大的管道运营商，通常每天运输250万桶汽油、柴油、喷气燃料和其他精炼石油产品。</blockquote></p><p>The attack prompted calls from cybersecurity experts for improved oversight of the industry to prepare for future threats.</p><p><blockquote>此次攻击促使网络安全专家发出评级，要求改善对该行业的监管，为未来的威胁做好准备。</blockquote></p><p>\"This attack is unusual for the US. But the bottom line is that attacks targeting operational technology -- the industrial control systems on the production line or plant floor -- are becoming more frequent,\" Algirde Pipikaite, cyber strategy lead at the World Economic Forum's Centre for Cybersecurity, told AFP on Saturday.</p><p><blockquote>世界经济论坛网络战略负责人阿尔吉德·皮皮凯特（Algirde Pipikaite）周六告诉法新社：“这次攻击对美国来说是不寻常的。但底线是，针对运营技术（生产线或工厂车间的工业控制系统）的攻击变得越来越频繁。”论坛网络安全中心。</blockquote></p><p>\"Unless cybersecurity measures are embedded in a technology's development phase, we are likely to see more frequent attacks on industrial systems like oil and gas pipelines or water treatment plants.\"</p><p><blockquote>“除非在技术开发阶段嵌入网络安全措施，否则我们可能会看到针对石油和天然气管道或水处理厂等工业系统的更频繁攻击。”</blockquote></p><p>Gas prices jumped in the United States on Sunday following the ransomware attack. Analysts warn that prices could climb even higher if the pipeline is not reopened soon. Oil prices rose more than one percent Monday.</p><p><blockquote>勒索软件攻击后，周日美国汽油价格飙升。分析师警告说，如果管道不尽快重新开放，价格可能会攀升得更高。周一油价上涨超过1%。</blockquote></p><p>The United States was rocked in recent months by news of two major cybersecurity breaches -- the SolarWinds hack that compromised thousands of US government and private sector computer networks and was officially blamed on Russia; and a potentially devastating penetration of Microsoft email servers.</p><p><blockquote>最近几个月，两起重大网络安全漏洞的消息震惊了美国——网络安全管理软件产品黑客入侵了数千个美国政府和私营部门的计算机网络，并被官方归咎于俄罗斯；以及对微软电子邮件服务器的潜在毁灭性渗透。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.france24.com/en/americas/20210510-biden-declares-state-of-emergency-after-major-us-pipeline-shut-due-to-cyber-attack\">AFP</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.france24.com/en/americas/20210510-biden-declares-state-of-emergency-after-major-us-pipeline-shut-due-to-cyber-attack","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120120226","content_text":"The US government declared a regional emergency Sunday as the largest fuel pipeline system in the United States remained largely shut down, two days after a major ransomware attack was detected.The Colonial Pipeline Company ships gasoline and jet fuel from the Gulf Coast of Texas to the populousEast Coastthrough 5,500 miles (8,850 kilometres) of pipeline, serving 50 million consumers.The company said it was the victim of acybersecurity attackinvolving ransomware -- attacks that encrypt computer systems and seek to extract payments from operators.\"This Declaration addresses the emergency conditions creating a need for immediate transportation of gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and other refined petroleum products and provides necessary relief,\" the Department of Transportation said in a statement.The emergency declaration allows for fuel to be transported by road to the affected states: Alabama, Arkansas, District of Columbia, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, New Jersey,New York, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas and Virginia.The declaration also provides regulatory relief to commercial motor vehicle operations that are part of the emergency support efforts.Colonial said earlier Sunday that it had opened some smaller delivery lines, but the main system was not yet back up and running.\"While our mainlines remain offline, some smaller lateral lines between terminals and delivery points are now operational,\" Colonial said in a statement, adding it would \"bring our full system back online only when we believe it is safe to do so.\"\"We have remained in contact with law enforcement and other federal agencies, including the Department of Energy who is leading the Federal Government response,\" it added.\"Maintaining the operational security of our pipeline, in addition to safely bringing our systems back online, remain our highest priorities.\"Calls for improved oversightCommerce Secretary Gina Raimondo told CBS on Sunday that authorities were working to prevent any disruption to supplies.Colonial, based in the southern state of Georgia, is the largest pipeline operator in the United States by volume, normally transporting 2.5 million barrels of gasoline, diesel fuel, jet fuel and other refined petroleum products per day.The attack prompted calls from cybersecurity experts for improved oversight of the industry to prepare for future threats.\"This attack is unusual for the US. But the bottom line is that attacks targeting operational technology -- the industrial control systems on the production line or plant floor -- are becoming more frequent,\" Algirde Pipikaite, cyber strategy lead at the World Economic Forum's Centre for Cybersecurity, told AFP on Saturday.\"Unless cybersecurity measures are embedded in a technology's development phase, we are likely to see more frequent attacks on industrial systems like oil and gas pipelines or water treatment plants.\"Gas prices jumped in the United States on Sunday following the ransomware attack. Analysts warn that prices could climb even higher if the pipeline is not reopened soon. Oil prices rose more than one percent Monday.The United States was rocked in recent months by news of two major cybersecurity breaches -- the SolarWinds hack that compromised thousands of US government and private sector computer networks and was officially blamed on Russia; and a potentially devastating penetration of Microsoft email servers.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1534,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":109269179,"gmtCreate":1619700573691,"gmtModify":1634210626258,"author":{"id":"3573788390439161","authorId":"3573788390439161","name":"30ad6cc","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573788390439161","authorIdStr":"3573788390439161"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Amazing news","listText":"Amazing news","text":"Amazing news","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/109269179","repostId":"1183966356","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1183966356","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1619665696,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1183966356?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-29 11:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"NIO Q1 2021 Earnings Report Preview: What to Look For<blockquote>蔚来2021年第一季度收益报告预览：寻找什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183966356","media":"InvestoPedia","summary":"Analysts estimate earnings per ADS of -0.72 yuan vs. -1.66 yuan in Q1 FY 2020.Revenue is expected to soar on expanding vehicle sales.NIO Inc. , like many other automakers, was forced to halt production this year due to the global semiconductor shortage. Semiconductor chips, widely used in smartphones, computers, and other electronic devices, are especially important to NIO, a maker of premium electric vehicles . NIO's production stoppage in late March had little impact on the company's record ve","content":"<p>Focus on NIO vehicle deliveries</p><p><blockquote>聚焦蔚来汽车交付</blockquote></p><p> <b>KEY TAKEAWAYS</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关键要点</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Analysts estimate earnings per ADS of -0.72 yuan vs. -1.66 yuan in Q1 FY 2020.</li>  <li>Vehicle deliveries, already announced, rose dramatically YOY.</li>  <li>Revenue is expected to soar on expanding vehicle sales.</li> </ul> NIO Inc. (NIO), like many other automakers, was forced to halt production this year due to the global semiconductor shortage. Semiconductor chips, widely used in smartphones, computers, and other electronic devices, are especially important to NIO, a maker of premium electric vehicles (EVs). NIO's production stoppage in late March had little impact on the company's record vehicle deliveries in Q1, but it could affect future production numbers.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>分析师预计2020财年第一季度每股美国存托凭证收益为-0.72元，而2020财年第一季度为-1.66元。</li><li>已经宣布的车辆交付量同比大幅增长。</li><li>随着汽车销量的扩大，收入预计将飙升。</li></ul>蔚来（蔚来）和许多其他汽车制造商一样，由于全球半导体短缺，今年被迫停产。广泛用于智能手机、计算机和其他电子设备的半导体芯片对于高端电动汽车(EV)制造商蔚来尤为重要。蔚来3月下旬的停产对该公司第一季度创纪录的汽车交付量影响不大，但可能会影响未来的产量。</blockquote></p><p> Investors will focus on how these forces affect NIO's immediate results, as well as its financial outlook, when the company reports earnings on April 29, 2021 for Q1 FY 2021.Analysts are expecting the company's loss per American depositary share (ADS) to narrow significantly as revenue expands at a rapid pace.</p><p><blockquote>当蔚来于2021年4月29日公布2021财年第一季度收益时，投资者将关注这些力量如何影响该公司的近期业绩及其财务前景。分析师预计该公司每股美国存托股(ADS)亏损将随着收入快速扩张而显着收窄。</blockquote></p><p> Vehicle deliveries are another key metric investors watch in order to gauge the company's productive capacity. NIO already reported vehicle deliveries for the first quarter earlier this month, achieving a new quarterly record despite total deliveries coming in slightly below expectations.</p><p><blockquote>车辆交付量是投资者关注的另一个关键指标，以衡量公司的生产能力。蔚来本月早些时候已经公布了第一季度的汽车交付量，尽管总交付量略低于预期，但仍创下了新的季度纪录。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of NIO have dramatically outperformed the broader market over the past year. But after reaching all-time highs earlier this year, the stock has fallen considerably and has been trading mostly sideways since early March. NIO's shares have provided investors with an astronomic total return of 1,171.9% over the past year, well above the S&amp;P 500's total return of 45.5%.</p><p><blockquote>过去一年，蔚来的股价大幅跑赢大盘。但在今年早些时候达到历史高点后，该股大幅下跌，自3月初以来一直横盘整理。过去一年，蔚来的股票为投资者带来了1,171.9%的天文数字总回报率，远高于标普500 45.5%的总回报率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a11e1a915810ccbc7f07ec2adf16865b\" tg-width=\"3004\" tg-height=\"1798\"><span>Source: TradingView.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO Earnings History</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来盈利历史</b></blockquote></p><p> The stock, which had been gathering downward momentum after peaking around mid-February, plunged following NIO's&nbsp;Q4 FY 2020 earnings&nbsp;report released at the beginning of March. The company reported a much larger loss per ADS than analysts expected and revenue also missed estimates. However, NIO's loss narrowed considerably compared to the year-ago quarter and revenue was still up 133.2%.The company was optimistic about its performance, noting that its&nbsp;gross margin&nbsp;rose to 17.2% compared to negative 8.9% in the year-ago quarter.</p><p><blockquote>该股在2月中旬左右见顶后一直在积聚下行动力，在蔚来3月初发布2020财年第四季度收益报告后暴跌。该公司报告的每股美国存托凭证亏损远高于分析师预期，收入也低于预期。不过，蔚来的亏损较去年同期大幅收窄，营收仍增长133.2%。该公司对其业绩持乐观态度，指出其毛利率升至17.2%，而去年同期为负8.9%。</blockquote></p><p> In Q3 FY 2020, NIO posted a loss per ADS of 0.98 yuan ($0.15 as of the CNY/USD exchange rate on April 27, 2021).It was the smallest loss in at least 11 quarters. Revenue rose 146.4%, maintaining the pace of growth achieved in the second quarter.NIO said it delivered a record number of vehicles and saw improvements in its average selling price. The company also said that it was the second straight quarter of positive cash flow from operating activities.</p><p><blockquote>2020财年第三季度，蔚来每股美国存托凭证亏损0.98元人民币（按2021年4月27日人民币/美元汇率计算为0.15美元）。这是至少11个季度以来的最小亏损。收入增长146.4%，保持了第二季度的增长速度。蔚来表示，其交付的车辆数量创历史新高，平均售价也有所提高。该公司还表示，这是连续第二个季度经营活动现金流为正。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts expect continued improvement in NIO's financial results in Q1 FY 2021. While NIO is still expected to post another loss per ADS, it is estimated to be the lowest in at least 14 quarters. Revenue for the quarter is forecast to rise 446.1%, which would be the fastest pace since Q2 FY 2019. For full-year FY 2021, analysts are currently expecting NIO to achieve a loss of 2.72 yuan per ADS, which would be the smallest loss in at least five years. Revenue is expected to rise 109.7%, a faster pace than in each of the last two years.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计蔚来2021财年第一季度的财务业绩将持续改善。虽然蔚来预计仍将再次出现每股美国存托凭证亏损，但估计将是至少14个季度以来的最低水平。该季度收入预计将增长446.1%，这将是自2019财年第二季度以来的最快增速。对于2021财年全年，分析师目前预计蔚来将实现每股ADS亏损2.72元，这将是至少五年来的最小亏损。收入预计将增长109.7%，增速快于过去两年的每年。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d412a9c0aea28621f713f5afbfba444c\" tg-width=\"885\" tg-height=\"352\"><span>Source: Visible Alpha; NIO Inc.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：可见阿尔法；蔚来</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Key Metric</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关键指标</b></blockquote></p><p> As mentioned above, investors are also watching the number of vehicles NIO delivers each quarter. NIO generates some revenue from various services it provides, but the majority of revenue is derived from vehicle sales.Currently, the company makes deliveries of three types of vehicles: the ES8, the company's 6-seater and 7-seater flagship premium smart electric SUV; the ES6, the company’s 5-seater high-performance premium smart electric SUV; and the EC6, the company’s 5-seater premium electric coupe SUV.The number of vehicle deliveries provides an indication of the demand for NIO's vehicles as well as the company's ability to scale production.</p><p><blockquote>如上所述，投资者也在关注蔚来每个季度交付的汽车数量。蔚来从其提供的各种服务中获得一些收入，但大部分收入来自汽车销售。目前，该公司交付三种类型的车辆：ES8，该公司的6座和7座旗舰高端智能电动SUV；该公司的5座高性能高级智能电动SUV ES6；以及该公司的5座高级电动轿跑车SUV EC6。汽车交付数量表明了对蔚来汽车的需求以及该公司扩大生产的能力。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> NIO has significantly ramped up its production over the past few years. The company delivered 11,350 vehicles in FY 2018. In FY 2020, it had nearly quadrupled that figure, delivering 43,730 vehicles. Despite a slowdown in Q1 FY 2020 amid the COVID-19 pandemic, NIO quickly made up for the Q1 drop in deliveries with a 190.8% year-over-year increase in Q2 FY 2020. Total vehicle delivery growth decelerated to 154.3% in Q3 and then to 111.0% in Q4. However, vehicle deliveries rose 423.0% in Q1 FY 2021, hitting a new quarterly record, as mentioned above. For full-year FY 2021, analysts are forecasting NIO to deliver 88,280 vehicles, which would be more than double last year's total deliveries. However, NIO warned investors in early March that the global chip shortage is likely to cut its production capacity, at least in the second quarter.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来在过去几年中大幅提高了产量。该公司在2018财年交付了11,350辆汽车。2020财年，这一数字几乎翻了两番，交付了43,730辆汽车。尽管2020财年第一季度因COVID-19大流行而放缓，但蔚来很快弥补了第一季度交付量的下降，2020财年第二季度同比增长190.8%。第三季度汽车交付总量增速放缓至154.3%，第四季度放缓至111.0%。然而，如上所述，2021财年第一季度的车辆交付量增长了423.0%，创下了新的季度纪录。对于2021财年全年，分析师预测蔚来将交付88,280辆汽车，这将是去年总交付量的两倍多。然而，蔚来在3月初警告投资者，全球芯片短缺很可能会削减其产能，至少在第二季度是这样。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606203311635","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NIO Q1 2021 Earnings Report Preview: What to Look For<blockquote>蔚来2021年第一季度收益报告预览：寻找什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNIO Q1 2021 Earnings Report Preview: What to Look For<blockquote>蔚来2021年第一季度收益报告预览：寻找什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">InvestoPedia</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-29 11:08</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Focus on NIO vehicle deliveries</p><p><blockquote>聚焦蔚来汽车交付</blockquote></p><p> <b>KEY TAKEAWAYS</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关键要点</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Analysts estimate earnings per ADS of -0.72 yuan vs. -1.66 yuan in Q1 FY 2020.</li>  <li>Vehicle deliveries, already announced, rose dramatically YOY.</li>  <li>Revenue is expected to soar on expanding vehicle sales.</li> </ul> NIO Inc. (NIO), like many other automakers, was forced to halt production this year due to the global semiconductor shortage. Semiconductor chips, widely used in smartphones, computers, and other electronic devices, are especially important to NIO, a maker of premium electric vehicles (EVs). NIO's production stoppage in late March had little impact on the company's record vehicle deliveries in Q1, but it could affect future production numbers.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>分析师预计2020财年第一季度每股美国存托凭证收益为-0.72元，而2020财年第一季度为-1.66元。</li><li>已经宣布的车辆交付量同比大幅增长。</li><li>随着汽车销量的扩大，收入预计将飙升。</li></ul>蔚来（蔚来）和许多其他汽车制造商一样，由于全球半导体短缺，今年被迫停产。广泛用于智能手机、计算机和其他电子设备的半导体芯片对于高端电动汽车(EV)制造商蔚来尤为重要。蔚来3月下旬的停产对该公司第一季度创纪录的汽车交付量影响不大，但可能会影响未来的产量。</blockquote></p><p> Investors will focus on how these forces affect NIO's immediate results, as well as its financial outlook, when the company reports earnings on April 29, 2021 for Q1 FY 2021.Analysts are expecting the company's loss per American depositary share (ADS) to narrow significantly as revenue expands at a rapid pace.</p><p><blockquote>当蔚来于2021年4月29日公布2021财年第一季度收益时，投资者将关注这些力量如何影响该公司的近期业绩及其财务前景。分析师预计该公司每股美国存托股(ADS)亏损将随着收入快速扩张而显着收窄。</blockquote></p><p> Vehicle deliveries are another key metric investors watch in order to gauge the company's productive capacity. NIO already reported vehicle deliveries for the first quarter earlier this month, achieving a new quarterly record despite total deliveries coming in slightly below expectations.</p><p><blockquote>车辆交付量是投资者关注的另一个关键指标，以衡量公司的生产能力。蔚来本月早些时候已经公布了第一季度的汽车交付量，尽管总交付量略低于预期，但仍创下了新的季度纪录。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of NIO have dramatically outperformed the broader market over the past year. But after reaching all-time highs earlier this year, the stock has fallen considerably and has been trading mostly sideways since early March. NIO's shares have provided investors with an astronomic total return of 1,171.9% over the past year, well above the S&amp;P 500's total return of 45.5%.</p><p><blockquote>过去一年，蔚来的股价大幅跑赢大盘。但在今年早些时候达到历史高点后，该股大幅下跌，自3月初以来一直横盘整理。过去一年，蔚来的股票为投资者带来了1,171.9%的天文数字总回报率，远高于标普500 45.5%的总回报率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a11e1a915810ccbc7f07ec2adf16865b\" tg-width=\"3004\" tg-height=\"1798\"><span>Source: TradingView.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO Earnings History</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来盈利历史</b></blockquote></p><p> The stock, which had been gathering downward momentum after peaking around mid-February, plunged following NIO's&nbsp;Q4 FY 2020 earnings&nbsp;report released at the beginning of March. The company reported a much larger loss per ADS than analysts expected and revenue also missed estimates. However, NIO's loss narrowed considerably compared to the year-ago quarter and revenue was still up 133.2%.The company was optimistic about its performance, noting that its&nbsp;gross margin&nbsp;rose to 17.2% compared to negative 8.9% in the year-ago quarter.</p><p><blockquote>该股在2月中旬左右见顶后一直在积聚下行动力，在蔚来3月初发布2020财年第四季度收益报告后暴跌。该公司报告的每股美国存托凭证亏损远高于分析师预期，收入也低于预期。不过，蔚来的亏损较去年同期大幅收窄，营收仍增长133.2%。该公司对其业绩持乐观态度，指出其毛利率升至17.2%，而去年同期为负8.9%。</blockquote></p><p> In Q3 FY 2020, NIO posted a loss per ADS of 0.98 yuan ($0.15 as of the CNY/USD exchange rate on April 27, 2021).It was the smallest loss in at least 11 quarters. Revenue rose 146.4%, maintaining the pace of growth achieved in the second quarter.NIO said it delivered a record number of vehicles and saw improvements in its average selling price. The company also said that it was the second straight quarter of positive cash flow from operating activities.</p><p><blockquote>2020财年第三季度，蔚来每股美国存托凭证亏损0.98元人民币（按2021年4月27日人民币/美元汇率计算为0.15美元）。这是至少11个季度以来的最小亏损。收入增长146.4%，保持了第二季度的增长速度。蔚来表示，其交付的车辆数量创历史新高，平均售价也有所提高。该公司还表示，这是连续第二个季度经营活动现金流为正。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts expect continued improvement in NIO's financial results in Q1 FY 2021. While NIO is still expected to post another loss per ADS, it is estimated to be the lowest in at least 14 quarters. Revenue for the quarter is forecast to rise 446.1%, which would be the fastest pace since Q2 FY 2019. For full-year FY 2021, analysts are currently expecting NIO to achieve a loss of 2.72 yuan per ADS, which would be the smallest loss in at least five years. Revenue is expected to rise 109.7%, a faster pace than in each of the last two years.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计蔚来2021财年第一季度的财务业绩将持续改善。虽然蔚来预计仍将再次出现每股美国存托凭证亏损，但估计将是至少14个季度以来的最低水平。该季度收入预计将增长446.1%，这将是自2019财年第二季度以来的最快增速。对于2021财年全年，分析师目前预计蔚来将实现每股ADS亏损2.72元，这将是至少五年来的最小亏损。收入预计将增长109.7%，增速快于过去两年的每年。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d412a9c0aea28621f713f5afbfba444c\" tg-width=\"885\" tg-height=\"352\"><span>Source: Visible Alpha; NIO Inc.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：可见阿尔法；蔚来</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Key Metric</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关键指标</b></blockquote></p><p> As mentioned above, investors are also watching the number of vehicles NIO delivers each quarter. NIO generates some revenue from various services it provides, but the majority of revenue is derived from vehicle sales.Currently, the company makes deliveries of three types of vehicles: the ES8, the company's 6-seater and 7-seater flagship premium smart electric SUV; the ES6, the company’s 5-seater high-performance premium smart electric SUV; and the EC6, the company’s 5-seater premium electric coupe SUV.The number of vehicle deliveries provides an indication of the demand for NIO's vehicles as well as the company's ability to scale production.</p><p><blockquote>如上所述，投资者也在关注蔚来每个季度交付的汽车数量。蔚来从其提供的各种服务中获得一些收入，但大部分收入来自汽车销售。目前，该公司交付三种类型的车辆：ES8，该公司的6座和7座旗舰高端智能电动SUV；该公司的5座高性能高级智能电动SUV ES6；以及该公司的5座高级电动轿跑车SUV EC6。汽车交付数量表明了对蔚来汽车的需求以及该公司扩大生产的能力。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> NIO has significantly ramped up its production over the past few years. The company delivered 11,350 vehicles in FY 2018. In FY 2020, it had nearly quadrupled that figure, delivering 43,730 vehicles. Despite a slowdown in Q1 FY 2020 amid the COVID-19 pandemic, NIO quickly made up for the Q1 drop in deliveries with a 190.8% year-over-year increase in Q2 FY 2020. Total vehicle delivery growth decelerated to 154.3% in Q3 and then to 111.0% in Q4. However, vehicle deliveries rose 423.0% in Q1 FY 2021, hitting a new quarterly record, as mentioned above. For full-year FY 2021, analysts are forecasting NIO to deliver 88,280 vehicles, which would be more than double last year's total deliveries. However, NIO warned investors in early March that the global chip shortage is likely to cut its production capacity, at least in the second quarter.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来在过去几年中大幅提高了产量。该公司在2018财年交付了11,350辆汽车。2020财年，这一数字几乎翻了两番，交付了43,730辆汽车。尽管2020财年第一季度因COVID-19大流行而放缓，但蔚来很快弥补了第一季度交付量的下降，2020财年第二季度同比增长190.8%。第三季度汽车交付总量增速放缓至154.3%，第四季度放缓至111.0%。然而，如上所述，2021财年第一季度的车辆交付量增长了423.0%，创下了新的季度纪录。对于2021财年全年，分析师预测蔚来将交付88,280辆汽车，这将是去年总交付量的两倍多。然而，蔚来在3月初警告投资者，全球芯片短缺很可能会削减其产能，至少在第二季度是这样。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.investopedia.com/nio-q1-2021-earnings-report-preview-5180991\">InvestoPedia</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://www.investopedia.com/nio-q1-2021-earnings-report-preview-5180991","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1183966356","content_text":"Focus on NIO vehicle deliveries\nKEY TAKEAWAYS\n\nAnalysts estimate earnings per ADS of -0.72 yuan vs. -1.66 yuan in Q1 FY 2020.\nVehicle deliveries, already announced, rose dramatically YOY.\nRevenue is expected to soar on expanding vehicle sales.\n\nNIO Inc. (NIO), like many other automakers, was forced to halt production this year due to the global semiconductor shortage. Semiconductor chips, widely used in smartphones, computers, and other electronic devices, are especially important to NIO, a maker of premium electric vehicles (EVs). NIO's production stoppage in late March had little impact on the company's record vehicle deliveries in Q1, but it could affect future production numbers.\nInvestors will focus on how these forces affect NIO's immediate results, as well as its financial outlook, when the company reports earnings on April 29, 2021 for Q1 FY 2021.Analysts are expecting the company's loss per American depositary share (ADS) to narrow significantly as revenue expands at a rapid pace.\nVehicle deliveries are another key metric investors watch in order to gauge the company's productive capacity. NIO already reported vehicle deliveries for the first quarter earlier this month, achieving a new quarterly record despite total deliveries coming in slightly below expectations.\nShares of NIO have dramatically outperformed the broader market over the past year. But after reaching all-time highs earlier this year, the stock has fallen considerably and has been trading mostly sideways since early March. NIO's shares have provided investors with an astronomic total return of 1,171.9% over the past year, well above the S&P 500's total return of 45.5%.\nSource: TradingView.\nNIO Earnings History\nThe stock, which had been gathering downward momentum after peaking around mid-February, plunged following NIO's Q4 FY 2020 earnings report released at the beginning of March. The company reported a much larger loss per ADS than analysts expected and revenue also missed estimates. However, NIO's loss narrowed considerably compared to the year-ago quarter and revenue was still up 133.2%.The company was optimistic about its performance, noting that its gross margin rose to 17.2% compared to negative 8.9% in the year-ago quarter.\nIn Q3 FY 2020, NIO posted a loss per ADS of 0.98 yuan ($0.15 as of the CNY/USD exchange rate on April 27, 2021).It was the smallest loss in at least 11 quarters. Revenue rose 146.4%, maintaining the pace of growth achieved in the second quarter.NIO said it delivered a record number of vehicles and saw improvements in its average selling price. The company also said that it was the second straight quarter of positive cash flow from operating activities.\nAnalysts expect continued improvement in NIO's financial results in Q1 FY 2021. While NIO is still expected to post another loss per ADS, it is estimated to be the lowest in at least 14 quarters. Revenue for the quarter is forecast to rise 446.1%, which would be the fastest pace since Q2 FY 2019. For full-year FY 2021, analysts are currently expecting NIO to achieve a loss of 2.72 yuan per ADS, which would be the smallest loss in at least five years. Revenue is expected to rise 109.7%, a faster pace than in each of the last two years.\nSource: Visible Alpha; NIO Inc.\nThe Key Metric\nAs mentioned above, investors are also watching the number of vehicles NIO delivers each quarter. NIO generates some revenue from various services it provides, but the majority of revenue is derived from vehicle sales.Currently, the company makes deliveries of three types of vehicles: the ES8, the company's 6-seater and 7-seater flagship premium smart electric SUV; the ES6, the company’s 5-seater high-performance premium smart electric SUV; and the EC6, the company’s 5-seater premium electric coupe SUV.The number of vehicle deliveries provides an indication of the demand for NIO's vehicles as well as the company's ability to scale production.\nNIO has significantly ramped up its production over the past few years. The company delivered 11,350 vehicles in FY 2018. In FY 2020, it had nearly quadrupled that figure, delivering 43,730 vehicles. Despite a slowdown in Q1 FY 2020 amid the COVID-19 pandemic, NIO quickly made up for the Q1 drop in deliveries with a 190.8% year-over-year increase in Q2 FY 2020. Total vehicle delivery growth decelerated to 154.3% in Q3 and then to 111.0% in Q4. However, vehicle deliveries rose 423.0% in Q1 FY 2021, hitting a new quarterly record, as mentioned above. For full-year FY 2021, analysts are forecasting NIO to deliver 88,280 vehicles, which would be more than double last year's total deliveries. However, NIO warned investors in early March that the global chip shortage is likely to cut its production capacity, at least in the second quarter.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2374,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":100043825,"gmtCreate":1619570969867,"gmtModify":1634211693910,"author":{"id":"3573788390439161","authorId":"3573788390439161","name":"30ad6cc","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573788390439161","authorIdStr":"3573788390439161"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok can","listText":"Ok can","text":"Ok can","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/100043825","repostId":"1157918353","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1157918353","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1619566409,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1157918353?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-28 07:33","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Microsoft sales grow on cloud strength, shares dip on heightened valuation<blockquote>微软销售额因云实力而增长，股价因估值上升而下跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157918353","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Microsoft exceeded analysts’ estimates on the top and bottom lines, as well as revenue guidance.Windows revenue growth from device makers was higher than the company had predicted.Azure cloud revenue growth was flat from the prior quarter.Microsoft shares moved 2.6% lower in extended trading Tuesday after the software maker announced fiscal third-quarter earnings and quarterly revenue guidance that came in stronger than analysts had expected. The company’s operating margin narrowed somewhat as c","content":"<p><b>KEY POINTS</b></p><p><blockquote><b>要点</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Microsoft exceeded analysts’ estimates on the top and bottom lines, as well as revenue guidance.</li>  <li>Windows revenue growth from device makers was higher than the company had predicted.</li>  <li>Azure cloud revenue growth was flat from the prior quarter.</li> </ul> Microsoft&nbsp;shares moved 2.6% lower in extended trading Tuesday after the software maker announced fiscal third-quarter earnings and quarterly revenue guidance that came in stronger than analysts had expected. The company’s operating margin narrowed somewhat as cloud became a larger part of its business.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>微软的营收和利润以及收入指引超出了分析师的预期。</li><li>来自设备制造商的Windows收入增长高于该公司的预期。</li><li>Azure云收入增长与上一季度持平。</li></ul>软件制造商微软公布了强于分析师预期的第三财季盈利和季度收入指引后，该公司股价周二在盘后交易中下跌2.6%。随着云计算成为其业务的重要组成部分，该公司的营业利润率有所收窄。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37e56904b785cd612b360cb4662adcab\" tg-width=\"1302\" tg-height=\"833\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Here’s how the company did:</p><p><blockquote>该公司的做法如下：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Earnings:</b>$1.95 per share, adjusted, vs. $1.78 per share as expected by analysts, according to Refinitiv.</li>  <li><b>Revenue:</b>$41.71 billion, vs. $41.03 billion as expected by analysts, according to Refinitiv.</li> </ul> The software and hardware maker posted 19% annualized revenue growth for the quarter, which ended March 31, according to a&nbsp;statement. That’s the biggest quarterly increase the company has posted since 2018, thanks in part to&nbsp;gains in PC sales&nbsp;resulting from coronavirus-driven shortages last year.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>收益：</b>根据Refinitiv的数据，调整后每股1.95美元，而分析师预期为每股1.78美元。</li><li><b>收入：</b>根据Refinitiv的数据，为417.1亿美元，而分析师预期为410.3亿美元。</li></ul>根据一份声明，这家软件和硬件制造商公布截至3月31日的季度年化收入增长19%。这是该公司自2018年以来最大的季度增幅，部分原因是去年冠状病毒导致的短缺导致PC销量增长。</blockquote></p><p> The company said its Azure public cloud, which competes with market leader&nbsp;Amazon&nbsp;Web Services, grew 50%, faster than the 46% growth analysts had expected, according to a CNBC review of 14 equity research notes. In&nbsp;the prior quarter&nbsp;Azure revenue grew 50%. Microsoft does not disclose Azure revenue in dollars.</p><p><blockquote>根据CNBC对14份股票研究报告的评论，该公司表示，与市场领导者亚马逊网络服务竞争的Azure公共云增长了50%，快于分析师预期的46%增长。上一季度，Azure收入增长了50%。微软没有披露Azure的美元收入。</blockquote></p><p> With respect to guidance, Microsoft is expecting $43.6 billion to $44.5 billion in revenue in the fiscal fourth quarter, said Amy Hood, Microsoft’s finance chief, on a conference call with analysts. At the middle of the range that would represent 16% growth, more than the $42.98 billion consensus estimate among analysts polled by Refinitiv.</p><p><blockquote>微软首席财务官Amy Hood在与分析师举行的电话会议上表示，关于指引，微软预计第四财季营收为436亿至445亿美元。处于16%增长区间的中间，高于Refinitiv调查的分析师普遍预期的429.8亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04deaac8d015743ca14f06c8b77bd26e\" tg-width=\"1910\" tg-height=\"1549\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Microsoft’s Intelligent Cloud segment delivered $15.12 billion in revenue in the fiscal third quarter. That was up 23% year over year and above the FactSet consensus estimate of $14.92 billion. Intelligent Cloud contains Azure, Windows Server, SQL Server, Visual Studio, GitHub and Enterprise Services.</p><p><blockquote>微软智能云部门第三财季实现营收151.2亿美元。这一数字同比增长23%，高于FactSet 149.2亿美元的共识预期。智能云包含Azure、Windows Server、SQL Server、Visual Studio、GitHub和企业服务。</blockquote></p><p> The Productivity and Business Processes segment, containing Office, Dynamics and LinkedIn, contributed $13.55 billion in revenue, up 15% and more than the $13.49 billion FactSet consensus. The Teams chat and calling app reached 145 million daily active users, up from&nbsp;115 million&nbsp;in October, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella said on the call.</p><p><blockquote>包括Office、Dynamics和LinkedIn在内的生产力和业务流程部门贡献了135.5亿美元的收入，增长了15%，超过了FactSet预期的134.9亿美元。微软首席执行官Satya Nadella在看涨期权上表示，Teams聊天和通话应用程序的日活跃用户达到1.45亿，高于10月份的1.15亿。</blockquote></p><p> The company’s More Personal Computing unit, which includes Windows, gaming, devices and search, came up with $13.04 billion in revenue. That was up almost 19% and higher than the $12.55 billion consensus. Technology research company Gartner&nbsp;estimated&nbsp;earlier this month that PC manufacturers shipped nearly 70 million units in the quarter, 32% more than in the year-ago quarter, the fastest growth since Gartner started tracking the PC market in 2000.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的更多个人计算部门，包括Windows、游戏、设备和搜索，收入为130.4亿美元。这一数字增长了近19%，高于125.5亿美元的共识。技术研究公司Gartner本月早些时候估计，PC制造商本季度出货量接近7000万台，比去年同期增长32%，这是Gartner自2000年开始跟踪PC市场以来的最快增长。</blockquote></p><p> That benefits Microsoft’s sales of Windows licenses to PC makers, which were up 10%. There are now over 1.3 billion monthly active devices running the Windows 10 operating system, Nadella said.</p><p><blockquote>这有利于微软向个人电脑制造商销售Windows许可证，增长了10%。纳德拉表示，现在每月有超过13亿台活跃设备运行Windows 10操作系统。</blockquote></p><p> The outcome was greater than Microsoft itself had forecast. In January, Hood called for Windows license revenue from device makers to be up in the low single digits.</p><p><blockquote>结果比微软自己预测的要好。一月份，胡德呼吁设备制造商的Windows许可收入保持在低个位数。</blockquote></p><p> The PC market endured “significant ongoing constraints in the supply chain,” Hood said on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>胡德周二表示，个人电脑市场经历了“供应链中持续的重大限制”。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time, the gross margin for Microsoft’s broad Commercial Cloud category of products — including Azure, commercial subscriptions to the Office 365 productivity bundle, cloud-based Dynamics 365 enterprise applications and commercial parts of LinkedIn — narrowed to 70% from 71%. The number is important to investors who want to see that Microsoft can continue to make Azure more profitable.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，微软广泛的商业云类别产品（包括Azure、Office 365生产力捆绑包的商业订阅、基于云的Dynamics 365企业应用程序和LinkedIn的商业部分）的毛利率从71%收窄至70%。对于希望看到微软能够继续让Azure盈利更高的投资者来说，这个数字很重要。</blockquote></p><p> The operating margin for the Intelligent Cloud segment that includes Azure also narrowed to 42.5% from about 44.5%. Microsoft’s overall operating margin came in at 40.9%, down from 41.6%.</p><p><blockquote>包括Azure在内的智能云部门的营业利润率也从约44.5%收窄至42.5%。微软的整体营业利润率为40.9%，低于41.6%。</blockquote></p><p> Microsoft&nbsp;said&nbsp;in the quarter it had won a U.S. Army contract worth up to $21.9 billion over a decade for augmented reality headsets based on its latest HoloLens device. The company also&nbsp;issued patches&nbsp;to address vulnerabilities in its Exchange Server on-premises email and calendar software that Chinese hackers exploited. It also&nbsp;closed&nbsp;the $8.1 billion acquisition of video game maker ZeniMax Media.</p><p><blockquote>微软表示，本季度它赢得了美国。陆军合同在十年内价值高达219亿美元，用于基于其最新HoloLens设备的增强现实耳机。该公司还发布了补丁，以解决其Exchange Server内部电子邮件和日历软件中被中国黑客利用的漏洞。它还完成了对视频游戏制造商ZeniMax Media的81亿美元收购。</blockquote></p><p> Notwithstanding the after-hours move, Microsoft shares are up 18% year to date, compared with a gain of around 12% for the S&amp;P 500 over the same time period.</p><p><blockquote>尽管盘后出现波动，微软股价今年迄今仍上涨了18%，而标普500同期的涨幅约为12%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Microsoft sales grow on cloud strength, shares dip on heightened valuation<blockquote>微软销售额因云实力而增长，股价因估值上升而下跌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMicrosoft sales grow on cloud strength, shares dip on heightened valuation<blockquote>微软销售额因云实力而增长，股价因估值上升而下跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-04-28 07:33</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>KEY POINTS</b></p><p><blockquote><b>要点</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Microsoft exceeded analysts’ estimates on the top and bottom lines, as well as revenue guidance.</li>  <li>Windows revenue growth from device makers was higher than the company had predicted.</li>  <li>Azure cloud revenue growth was flat from the prior quarter.</li> </ul> Microsoft&nbsp;shares moved 2.6% lower in extended trading Tuesday after the software maker announced fiscal third-quarter earnings and quarterly revenue guidance that came in stronger than analysts had expected. The company’s operating margin narrowed somewhat as cloud became a larger part of its business.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>微软的营收和利润以及收入指引超出了分析师的预期。</li><li>来自设备制造商的Windows收入增长高于该公司的预期。</li><li>Azure云收入增长与上一季度持平。</li></ul>软件制造商微软公布了强于分析师预期的第三财季盈利和季度收入指引后，该公司股价周二在盘后交易中下跌2.6%。随着云计算成为其业务的重要组成部分，该公司的营业利润率有所收窄。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37e56904b785cd612b360cb4662adcab\" tg-width=\"1302\" tg-height=\"833\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Here’s how the company did:</p><p><blockquote>该公司的做法如下：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Earnings:</b>$1.95 per share, adjusted, vs. $1.78 per share as expected by analysts, according to Refinitiv.</li>  <li><b>Revenue:</b>$41.71 billion, vs. $41.03 billion as expected by analysts, according to Refinitiv.</li> </ul> The software and hardware maker posted 19% annualized revenue growth for the quarter, which ended March 31, according to a&nbsp;statement. That’s the biggest quarterly increase the company has posted since 2018, thanks in part to&nbsp;gains in PC sales&nbsp;resulting from coronavirus-driven shortages last year.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>收益：</b>根据Refinitiv的数据，调整后每股1.95美元，而分析师预期为每股1.78美元。</li><li><b>收入：</b>根据Refinitiv的数据，为417.1亿美元，而分析师预期为410.3亿美元。</li></ul>根据一份声明，这家软件和硬件制造商公布截至3月31日的季度年化收入增长19%。这是该公司自2018年以来最大的季度增幅，部分原因是去年冠状病毒导致的短缺导致PC销量增长。</blockquote></p><p> The company said its Azure public cloud, which competes with market leader&nbsp;Amazon&nbsp;Web Services, grew 50%, faster than the 46% growth analysts had expected, according to a CNBC review of 14 equity research notes. In&nbsp;the prior quarter&nbsp;Azure revenue grew 50%. Microsoft does not disclose Azure revenue in dollars.</p><p><blockquote>根据CNBC对14份股票研究报告的评论，该公司表示，与市场领导者亚马逊网络服务竞争的Azure公共云增长了50%，快于分析师预期的46%增长。上一季度，Azure收入增长了50%。微软没有披露Azure的美元收入。</blockquote></p><p> With respect to guidance, Microsoft is expecting $43.6 billion to $44.5 billion in revenue in the fiscal fourth quarter, said Amy Hood, Microsoft’s finance chief, on a conference call with analysts. At the middle of the range that would represent 16% growth, more than the $42.98 billion consensus estimate among analysts polled by Refinitiv.</p><p><blockquote>微软首席财务官Amy Hood在与分析师举行的电话会议上表示，关于指引，微软预计第四财季营收为436亿至445亿美元。处于16%增长区间的中间，高于Refinitiv调查的分析师普遍预期的429.8亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04deaac8d015743ca14f06c8b77bd26e\" tg-width=\"1910\" tg-height=\"1549\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Microsoft’s Intelligent Cloud segment delivered $15.12 billion in revenue in the fiscal third quarter. That was up 23% year over year and above the FactSet consensus estimate of $14.92 billion. Intelligent Cloud contains Azure, Windows Server, SQL Server, Visual Studio, GitHub and Enterprise Services.</p><p><blockquote>微软智能云部门第三财季实现营收151.2亿美元。这一数字同比增长23%，高于FactSet 149.2亿美元的共识预期。智能云包含Azure、Windows Server、SQL Server、Visual Studio、GitHub和企业服务。</blockquote></p><p> The Productivity and Business Processes segment, containing Office, Dynamics and LinkedIn, contributed $13.55 billion in revenue, up 15% and more than the $13.49 billion FactSet consensus. The Teams chat and calling app reached 145 million daily active users, up from&nbsp;115 million&nbsp;in October, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella said on the call.</p><p><blockquote>包括Office、Dynamics和LinkedIn在内的生产力和业务流程部门贡献了135.5亿美元的收入，增长了15%，超过了FactSet预期的134.9亿美元。微软首席执行官Satya Nadella在看涨期权上表示，Teams聊天和通话应用程序的日活跃用户达到1.45亿，高于10月份的1.15亿。</blockquote></p><p> The company’s More Personal Computing unit, which includes Windows, gaming, devices and search, came up with $13.04 billion in revenue. That was up almost 19% and higher than the $12.55 billion consensus. Technology research company Gartner&nbsp;estimated&nbsp;earlier this month that PC manufacturers shipped nearly 70 million units in the quarter, 32% more than in the year-ago quarter, the fastest growth since Gartner started tracking the PC market in 2000.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的更多个人计算部门，包括Windows、游戏、设备和搜索，收入为130.4亿美元。这一数字增长了近19%，高于125.5亿美元的共识。技术研究公司Gartner本月早些时候估计，PC制造商本季度出货量接近7000万台，比去年同期增长32%，这是Gartner自2000年开始跟踪PC市场以来的最快增长。</blockquote></p><p> That benefits Microsoft’s sales of Windows licenses to PC makers, which were up 10%. There are now over 1.3 billion monthly active devices running the Windows 10 operating system, Nadella said.</p><p><blockquote>这有利于微软向个人电脑制造商销售Windows许可证，增长了10%。纳德拉表示，现在每月有超过13亿台活跃设备运行Windows 10操作系统。</blockquote></p><p> The outcome was greater than Microsoft itself had forecast. In January, Hood called for Windows license revenue from device makers to be up in the low single digits.</p><p><blockquote>结果比微软自己预测的要好。一月份，胡德呼吁设备制造商的Windows许可收入保持在低个位数。</blockquote></p><p> The PC market endured “significant ongoing constraints in the supply chain,” Hood said on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>胡德周二表示，个人电脑市场经历了“供应链中持续的重大限制”。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time, the gross margin for Microsoft’s broad Commercial Cloud category of products — including Azure, commercial subscriptions to the Office 365 productivity bundle, cloud-based Dynamics 365 enterprise applications and commercial parts of LinkedIn — narrowed to 70% from 71%. The number is important to investors who want to see that Microsoft can continue to make Azure more profitable.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，微软广泛的商业云类别产品（包括Azure、Office 365生产力捆绑包的商业订阅、基于云的Dynamics 365企业应用程序和LinkedIn的商业部分）的毛利率从71%收窄至70%。对于希望看到微软能够继续让Azure盈利更高的投资者来说，这个数字很重要。</blockquote></p><p> The operating margin for the Intelligent Cloud segment that includes Azure also narrowed to 42.5% from about 44.5%. Microsoft’s overall operating margin came in at 40.9%, down from 41.6%.</p><p><blockquote>包括Azure在内的智能云部门的营业利润率也从约44.5%收窄至42.5%。微软的整体营业利润率为40.9%，低于41.6%。</blockquote></p><p> Microsoft&nbsp;said&nbsp;in the quarter it had won a U.S. Army contract worth up to $21.9 billion over a decade for augmented reality headsets based on its latest HoloLens device. The company also&nbsp;issued patches&nbsp;to address vulnerabilities in its Exchange Server on-premises email and calendar software that Chinese hackers exploited. It also&nbsp;closed&nbsp;the $8.1 billion acquisition of video game maker ZeniMax Media.</p><p><blockquote>微软表示，本季度它赢得了美国。陆军合同在十年内价值高达219亿美元，用于基于其最新HoloLens设备的增强现实耳机。该公司还发布了补丁，以解决其Exchange Server内部电子邮件和日历软件中被中国黑客利用的漏洞。它还完成了对视频游戏制造商ZeniMax Media的81亿美元收购。</blockquote></p><p> Notwithstanding the after-hours move, Microsoft shares are up 18% year to date, compared with a gain of around 12% for the S&amp;P 500 over the same time period.</p><p><blockquote>尽管盘后出现波动，微软股价今年迄今仍上涨了18%，而标普500同期的涨幅约为12%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157918353","content_text":"KEY POINTS\n\nMicrosoft exceeded analysts’ estimates on the top and bottom lines, as well as revenue guidance.\nWindows revenue growth from device makers was higher than the company had predicted.\nAzure cloud revenue growth was flat from the prior quarter.\n\nMicrosoft shares moved 2.6% lower in extended trading Tuesday after the software maker announced fiscal third-quarter earnings and quarterly revenue guidance that came in stronger than analysts had expected. The company’s operating margin narrowed somewhat as cloud became a larger part of its business.\n\nHere’s how the company did:\n\nEarnings:$1.95 per share, adjusted, vs. $1.78 per share as expected by analysts, according to Refinitiv.\nRevenue:$41.71 billion, vs. $41.03 billion as expected by analysts, according to Refinitiv.\n\nThe software and hardware maker posted 19% annualized revenue growth for the quarter, which ended March 31, according to a statement. That’s the biggest quarterly increase the company has posted since 2018, thanks in part to gains in PC sales resulting from coronavirus-driven shortages last year.\nThe company said its Azure public cloud, which competes with market leader Amazon Web Services, grew 50%, faster than the 46% growth analysts had expected, according to a CNBC review of 14 equity research notes. In the prior quarter Azure revenue grew 50%. Microsoft does not disclose Azure revenue in dollars.\nWith respect to guidance, Microsoft is expecting $43.6 billion to $44.5 billion in revenue in the fiscal fourth quarter, said Amy Hood, Microsoft’s finance chief, on a conference call with analysts. At the middle of the range that would represent 16% growth, more than the $42.98 billion consensus estimate among analysts polled by Refinitiv.\n\nMicrosoft’s Intelligent Cloud segment delivered $15.12 billion in revenue in the fiscal third quarter. That was up 23% year over year and above the FactSet consensus estimate of $14.92 billion. Intelligent Cloud contains Azure, Windows Server, SQL Server, Visual Studio, GitHub and Enterprise Services.\nThe Productivity and Business Processes segment, containing Office, Dynamics and LinkedIn, contributed $13.55 billion in revenue, up 15% and more than the $13.49 billion FactSet consensus. The Teams chat and calling app reached 145 million daily active users, up from 115 million in October, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella said on the call.\nThe company’s More Personal Computing unit, which includes Windows, gaming, devices and search, came up with $13.04 billion in revenue. That was up almost 19% and higher than the $12.55 billion consensus. Technology research company Gartner estimated earlier this month that PC manufacturers shipped nearly 70 million units in the quarter, 32% more than in the year-ago quarter, the fastest growth since Gartner started tracking the PC market in 2000.\nThat benefits Microsoft’s sales of Windows licenses to PC makers, which were up 10%. There are now over 1.3 billion monthly active devices running the Windows 10 operating system, Nadella said.\nThe outcome was greater than Microsoft itself had forecast. In January, Hood called for Windows license revenue from device makers to be up in the low single digits.\nThe PC market endured “significant ongoing constraints in the supply chain,” Hood said on Tuesday.\nAt the same time, the gross margin for Microsoft’s broad Commercial Cloud category of products — including Azure, commercial subscriptions to the Office 365 productivity bundle, cloud-based Dynamics 365 enterprise applications and commercial parts of LinkedIn — narrowed to 70% from 71%. The number is important to investors who want to see that Microsoft can continue to make Azure more profitable.\nThe operating margin for the Intelligent Cloud segment that includes Azure also narrowed to 42.5% from about 44.5%. Microsoft’s overall operating margin came in at 40.9%, down from 41.6%.\nMicrosoft said in the quarter it had won a U.S. Army contract worth up to $21.9 billion over a decade for augmented reality headsets based on its latest HoloLens device. The company also issued patches to address vulnerabilities in its Exchange Server on-premises email and calendar software that Chinese hackers exploited. It also closed the $8.1 billion acquisition of video game maker ZeniMax Media.\nNotwithstanding the after-hours move, Microsoft shares are up 18% year to date, compared with a gain of around 12% for the S&P 500 over the same time period.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MSFT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1196,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":100040513,"gmtCreate":1619570919332,"gmtModify":1634211695690,"author":{"id":"3573788390439161","authorId":"3573788390439161","name":"30ad6cc","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573788390439161","authorIdStr":"3573788390439161"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yay great","listText":"Yay great","text":"Yay great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/100040513","repostId":"1187199105","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1187199105","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1619566832,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1187199105?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-28 07:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMD stock rises after earnings show data-center sales more than doubling<blockquote>财报显示数据中心销售额增长一倍多后，AMD股价上涨</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187199105","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"AMD increases full-year revenue guidance after record quarterly sales, stock jumps more than 3% in e","content":"<p>AMD increases full-year revenue guidance after record quarterly sales, stock jumps more than 3% in extended session<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/174cfb55080b96346856b267d6c023ed\" tg-width=\"706\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Advanced Micro Devices Inc. shares rose in the extended session Tuesday after the chip maker said data-center revenue more than doubled to fuel record quarterly sales, and increased its revenue forecast for the year.</p><p><blockquote>AMD在创纪录的季度销售额后上调全年收入指引，股价在延长交易时段上涨逾3%芯片制造商Advanced Micro Devices Inc.表示，数据中心收入增长了一倍多，推动了创纪录的季度销售额，并上调了今年的收入预期，该公司股价在周二的延长交易中上涨。</blockquote></p><p>“In the first quarter, data-center product revenue more than doubled year-over-year and represented a high teens percentage of our overall revenue,” said AMD&nbsp;Chief Executive Lisa Su on a call with analysts. “We expect data-center product revenue to grow significantly as we go through the year driven by our strong pipeline of new cloud, enterprise and [high-performance computing] wins.”</p><p><blockquote>AMD首席执行官苏姿丰在与分析师的看涨期权中表示：“第一季度，数据中心产品收入同比增长了一倍多，占我们总收入的比例很高。”“我们预计，在我们强大的新云、企业和[高性能计算]胜利渠道的推动下，数据中心产品收入将在今年大幅增长。”</blockquote></p><p>Sales from enterprise embedded and semi-custom chips — the unit that includes data-center and gaming-console revenue — nearly quadrupled to $1.35 billion, compared with $348 million a year ago. Analysts surveyed by FactSet expected $1.3 billion. Su’s comments about data-center revenue were helpful asAMD does not break out data-center sales from gaming sales.</p><p><blockquote>企业嵌入式和半定制芯片（包括数据中心和游戏机收入）的销售额几乎翻了两番，达到13.5亿美元，而一年前为3.48亿美元。FactSet调查的分析师预计为13亿美元。苏关于数据中心收入的评论很有帮助，因为AMD不会将数据中心销售额与游戏销售额分开。</blockquote></p><p>“I think we saw actually strong signals in the first quarter that it would be a strong data-center year for us,” Su told analysts.</p><p><blockquote>“我认为我们在第一季度看到了真正强烈的信号，表明今年对我们来说将是数据中心强劲的一年，”苏告诉分析师。</blockquote></p><p>Last week, Intel Corp&nbsp;said the data-center market was in a“digestion phase,”contributing to a 20% drop in sales for data centers, yetanalysts pointed to increased competition from AMD and ARM Holdings PLC.</p><p><blockquote>上周，英特尔公司表示，数据中心市场正处于“消化阶段”，导致数据中心销售额下降20%，但分析师指出，来自AMD和ARM Holdings PLC的竞争加剧。</blockquote></p><p>AMD reported first-quarter net income of $555 million, or 45 cents a share, compared with $162 million, or 14 cents a share, in the year-ago period. After adjusting for stock-based compensation and other factors, the Santa Clara, Calif.-based company reported earnings of 52 cents a share, compared with 18 cents a share in the year-ago period. Revenue rose to $3.45 billion from $1.79 billion in the year-ago quarter.</p><p><blockquote>AMD公布第一季度净利润为5.55亿美元，即每股45美分，而去年同期为1.62亿美元，即每股14美分。在调整股票薪酬和其他因素后，这家总部位于加利福尼亚州圣克拉拉的公司报告每股收益为52美分，而去年同期为每股18美分。收入从去年同期的17.9亿美元增至34.5亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Analysts surveyed by FactSet had forecast adjusted earnings of 44 cents a share on revenue of $3.18 billion, and AMD projected between $3.1 billion and $3.3 billion.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet调查的分析师此前预测调整后每股收益为44美分，营收为31.8亿美元，AMD预计在31亿至33亿美元之间。</blockquote></p><p>AMD reported first-quarter sales of $2.1 billion for computing and graphics chips, up 46% from $1.44 billion last year, compared with analyst expectations of $1.89 billion.</p><p><blockquote>AMD公布第一季度计算和图形芯片销售额为21亿美元，较去年的14.4亿美元增长46%，分析师预期为18.9亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Executives also increased AMD’s guidance for the full year, to a sales increase of about 50% from previous guidance of a roughly 37% increase. AMD reported revenue of $9.67 billion last year, suggesting sales of about $14.65 billion this year; analysts had been forecasting revenue of $13.46 billion, according to FactSet.</p><p><blockquote>高管们还提高了AMD全年销售额指引，从之前指引的约37%增长至约50%。AMD去年营收为96.7亿美元，暗示今年销售额约为146.5亿美元；FactSet的数据显示，分析师此前预测营收为134.6亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>AMD expects second-quarter revenue of $3.5 billion to $3.7 billion, while analysts had been projecting $3.23 billion, according to FactSet.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet的数据显示，AMD预计第二季度营收为35亿至37亿美元，而分析师此前预计为32.3亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Shares gained more than 3% in after-hours trading, following a 0.2% decline in the regular session to close at $85.21.</p><p><blockquote>该股在常规交易中下跌0.2%，收于85.21美元，在盘后交易中上涨超过3%。</blockquote></p><p>AMD’s strong earnings come amid a continuing shortage of microchips to sate demand from global industries, and the companies that make the silicon wafers that chip designs use, work to clear waiting lists that span several months.</p><p><blockquote>AMD的强劲盈利是在满足全球行业需求的微芯片持续短缺的情况下出现的，而制造芯片设计所用硅片的公司正在努力清理长达数月的等待名单。</blockquote></p><p>More of how the chip sector is dealing with supply shortages will be revealed this week, with Qualcomm Inc.QCOM,-0.68%earnings on Wednesday and KLA Corp.KLAC,-1.58%earnings on Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>芯片行业如何应对供应短缺的更多信息将于本周公布，高通公司(Qualcomm Inc.QCOM)周三盈利-0.68%，KLA Corp.KLAC(KLAC)周四盈利-1.58%。</blockquote></p><p>Over the past 12 months, AMD shares have gained 51%. In comparison, the PHLX Semiconductor IndexSOX,-0.76%has gained 87%, the S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;has risen 54%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index&nbsp;is up 61%.</p><p><blockquote>过去12个月，AMD股价上涨了51%。相比之下，PHLX半导体指数SOX,-0.76%上涨87%，标普500指数上涨54%，以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数上涨61%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMD stock rises after earnings show data-center sales more than doubling<blockquote>财报显示数据中心销售额增长一倍多后，AMD股价上涨</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMD stock rises after earnings show data-center sales more than doubling<blockquote>财报显示数据中心销售额增长一倍多后，AMD股价上涨</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-04-28 07:40</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>AMD increases full-year revenue guidance after record quarterly sales, stock jumps more than 3% in extended session<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/174cfb55080b96346856b267d6c023ed\" tg-width=\"706\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Advanced Micro Devices Inc. shares rose in the extended session Tuesday after the chip maker said data-center revenue more than doubled to fuel record quarterly sales, and increased its revenue forecast for the year.</p><p><blockquote>AMD在创纪录的季度销售额后上调全年收入指引，股价在延长交易时段上涨逾3%芯片制造商Advanced Micro Devices Inc.表示，数据中心收入增长了一倍多，推动了创纪录的季度销售额，并上调了今年的收入预期，该公司股价在周二的延长交易中上涨。</blockquote></p><p>“In the first quarter, data-center product revenue more than doubled year-over-year and represented a high teens percentage of our overall revenue,” said AMD&nbsp;Chief Executive Lisa Su on a call with analysts. “We expect data-center product revenue to grow significantly as we go through the year driven by our strong pipeline of new cloud, enterprise and [high-performance computing] wins.”</p><p><blockquote>AMD首席执行官苏姿丰在与分析师的看涨期权中表示：“第一季度，数据中心产品收入同比增长了一倍多，占我们总收入的比例很高。”“我们预计，在我们强大的新云、企业和[高性能计算]胜利渠道的推动下，数据中心产品收入将在今年大幅增长。”</blockquote></p><p>Sales from enterprise embedded and semi-custom chips — the unit that includes data-center and gaming-console revenue — nearly quadrupled to $1.35 billion, compared with $348 million a year ago. Analysts surveyed by FactSet expected $1.3 billion. Su’s comments about data-center revenue were helpful asAMD does not break out data-center sales from gaming sales.</p><p><blockquote>企业嵌入式和半定制芯片（包括数据中心和游戏机收入）的销售额几乎翻了两番，达到13.5亿美元，而一年前为3.48亿美元。FactSet调查的分析师预计为13亿美元。苏关于数据中心收入的评论很有帮助，因为AMD不会将数据中心销售额与游戏销售额分开。</blockquote></p><p>“I think we saw actually strong signals in the first quarter that it would be a strong data-center year for us,” Su told analysts.</p><p><blockquote>“我认为我们在第一季度看到了真正强烈的信号，表明今年对我们来说将是数据中心强劲的一年，”苏告诉分析师。</blockquote></p><p>Last week, Intel Corp&nbsp;said the data-center market was in a“digestion phase,”contributing to a 20% drop in sales for data centers, yetanalysts pointed to increased competition from AMD and ARM Holdings PLC.</p><p><blockquote>上周，英特尔公司表示，数据中心市场正处于“消化阶段”，导致数据中心销售额下降20%，但分析师指出，来自AMD和ARM Holdings PLC的竞争加剧。</blockquote></p><p>AMD reported first-quarter net income of $555 million, or 45 cents a share, compared with $162 million, or 14 cents a share, in the year-ago period. After adjusting for stock-based compensation and other factors, the Santa Clara, Calif.-based company reported earnings of 52 cents a share, compared with 18 cents a share in the year-ago period. Revenue rose to $3.45 billion from $1.79 billion in the year-ago quarter.</p><p><blockquote>AMD公布第一季度净利润为5.55亿美元，即每股45美分，而去年同期为1.62亿美元，即每股14美分。在调整股票薪酬和其他因素后，这家总部位于加利福尼亚州圣克拉拉的公司报告每股收益为52美分，而去年同期为每股18美分。收入从去年同期的17.9亿美元增至34.5亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Analysts surveyed by FactSet had forecast adjusted earnings of 44 cents a share on revenue of $3.18 billion, and AMD projected between $3.1 billion and $3.3 billion.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet调查的分析师此前预测调整后每股收益为44美分，营收为31.8亿美元，AMD预计在31亿至33亿美元之间。</blockquote></p><p>AMD reported first-quarter sales of $2.1 billion for computing and graphics chips, up 46% from $1.44 billion last year, compared with analyst expectations of $1.89 billion.</p><p><blockquote>AMD公布第一季度计算和图形芯片销售额为21亿美元，较去年的14.4亿美元增长46%，分析师预期为18.9亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Executives also increased AMD’s guidance for the full year, to a sales increase of about 50% from previous guidance of a roughly 37% increase. AMD reported revenue of $9.67 billion last year, suggesting sales of about $14.65 billion this year; analysts had been forecasting revenue of $13.46 billion, according to FactSet.</p><p><blockquote>高管们还提高了AMD全年销售额指引，从之前指引的约37%增长至约50%。AMD去年营收为96.7亿美元，暗示今年销售额约为146.5亿美元；FactSet的数据显示，分析师此前预测营收为134.6亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>AMD expects second-quarter revenue of $3.5 billion to $3.7 billion, while analysts had been projecting $3.23 billion, according to FactSet.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet的数据显示，AMD预计第二季度营收为35亿至37亿美元，而分析师此前预计为32.3亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Shares gained more than 3% in after-hours trading, following a 0.2% decline in the regular session to close at $85.21.</p><p><blockquote>该股在常规交易中下跌0.2%，收于85.21美元，在盘后交易中上涨超过3%。</blockquote></p><p>AMD’s strong earnings come amid a continuing shortage of microchips to sate demand from global industries, and the companies that make the silicon wafers that chip designs use, work to clear waiting lists that span several months.</p><p><blockquote>AMD的强劲盈利是在满足全球行业需求的微芯片持续短缺的情况下出现的，而制造芯片设计所用硅片的公司正在努力清理长达数月的等待名单。</blockquote></p><p>More of how the chip sector is dealing with supply shortages will be revealed this week, with Qualcomm Inc.QCOM,-0.68%earnings on Wednesday and KLA Corp.KLAC,-1.58%earnings on Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>芯片行业如何应对供应短缺的更多信息将于本周公布，高通公司(Qualcomm Inc.QCOM)周三盈利-0.68%，KLA Corp.KLAC(KLAC)周四盈利-1.58%。</blockquote></p><p>Over the past 12 months, AMD shares have gained 51%. In comparison, the PHLX Semiconductor IndexSOX,-0.76%has gained 87%, the S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;has risen 54%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index&nbsp;is up 61%.</p><p><blockquote>过去12个月，AMD股价上涨了51%。相比之下，PHLX半导体指数SOX,-0.76%上涨87%，标普500指数上涨54%，以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数上涨61%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMD":"美国超微公司"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187199105","content_text":"AMD increases full-year revenue guidance after record quarterly sales, stock jumps more than 3% in extended sessionAdvanced Micro Devices Inc. shares rose in the extended session Tuesday after the chip maker said data-center revenue more than doubled to fuel record quarterly sales, and increased its revenue forecast for the year.“In the first quarter, data-center product revenue more than doubled year-over-year and represented a high teens percentage of our overall revenue,” said AMD Chief Executive Lisa Su on a call with analysts. “We expect data-center product revenue to grow significantly as we go through the year driven by our strong pipeline of new cloud, enterprise and [high-performance computing] wins.”Sales from enterprise embedded and semi-custom chips — the unit that includes data-center and gaming-console revenue — nearly quadrupled to $1.35 billion, compared with $348 million a year ago. Analysts surveyed by FactSet expected $1.3 billion. Su’s comments about data-center revenue were helpful asAMD does not break out data-center sales from gaming sales.“I think we saw actually strong signals in the first quarter that it would be a strong data-center year for us,” Su told analysts.Last week, Intel Corp said the data-center market was in a“digestion phase,”contributing to a 20% drop in sales for data centers, yetanalysts pointed to increased competition from AMD and ARM Holdings PLC.AMD reported first-quarter net income of $555 million, or 45 cents a share, compared with $162 million, or 14 cents a share, in the year-ago period. After adjusting for stock-based compensation and other factors, the Santa Clara, Calif.-based company reported earnings of 52 cents a share, compared with 18 cents a share in the year-ago period. Revenue rose to $3.45 billion from $1.79 billion in the year-ago quarter.Analysts surveyed by FactSet had forecast adjusted earnings of 44 cents a share on revenue of $3.18 billion, and AMD projected between $3.1 billion and $3.3 billion.AMD reported first-quarter sales of $2.1 billion for computing and graphics chips, up 46% from $1.44 billion last year, compared with analyst expectations of $1.89 billion.Executives also increased AMD’s guidance for the full year, to a sales increase of about 50% from previous guidance of a roughly 37% increase. AMD reported revenue of $9.67 billion last year, suggesting sales of about $14.65 billion this year; analysts had been forecasting revenue of $13.46 billion, according to FactSet.AMD expects second-quarter revenue of $3.5 billion to $3.7 billion, while analysts had been projecting $3.23 billion, according to FactSet.Shares gained more than 3% in after-hours trading, following a 0.2% decline in the regular session to close at $85.21.AMD’s strong earnings come amid a continuing shortage of microchips to sate demand from global industries, and the companies that make the silicon wafers that chip designs use, work to clear waiting lists that span several months.More of how the chip sector is dealing with supply shortages will be revealed this week, with Qualcomm Inc.QCOM,-0.68%earnings on Wednesday and KLA Corp.KLAC,-1.58%earnings on Thursday.Over the past 12 months, AMD shares have gained 51%. In comparison, the PHLX Semiconductor IndexSOX,-0.76%has gained 87%, the S&P 500 index has risen 54%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index is up 61%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1230,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":372376502,"gmtCreate":1619183203006,"gmtModify":1634287942648,"author":{"id":"3573788390439161","authorId":"3573788390439161","name":"30ad6cc","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573788390439161","authorIdStr":"3573788390439161"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Sharing for coin","listText":"Sharing for coin","text":"Sharing for coin","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ef057121f3a51db3efa27e04322b1ce","width":"1080","height":"2650"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/372376502","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2325,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":379630774,"gmtCreate":1618724573198,"gmtModify":1634291233320,"author":{"id":"3573788390439161","authorId":"3573788390439161","name":"30ad6cc","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573788390439161","authorIdStr":"3573788390439161"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please help to like, thanks","listText":"Please help to like, thanks","text":"Please help to like, thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/379630774","repostId":"1175692875","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175692875","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618582708,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1175692875?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-16 22:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"$544 Billion In Options Expire Today: Here's What Will Move<blockquote>5440亿美元期权今天到期：以下是将发生的变化</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175692875","media":"zerohedge","summary":"While it's not quad (or even triple) witching day, today's a whole lot of weekly options will expire","content":"<p>While it's not quad (or even triple) witching day, today's a whole lot of weekly options will expire, may of which will be worthless, and others will be providing a supporting \"pin\" to underlying prices. It's why, even though we are enjoying a beautiful spring week, Goldman notes that single stock options trading activity is elevated relative to historical levels. To wit, daily options volumes are up 70% in April, up from YTD lows of $2.4bn on 30-Mar.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这不是四（甚至三）巫术日，但今天的大量每周期权将到期，其中可能一文不值，其他期权将为基础价格提供支持“引脚”。这就是为什么，尽管我们正在享受一个美丽的春季周，高盛指出，单一股票期权交易活动相对于历史水平有所上升。也就是说，4月份每日期权交易量增长了70%，高于3月30日年初至今24亿美元的低点。</blockquote></p><p><b>In total, across single stocks, $544BN of options are set to expiry today, including $305BN calls.</b>As such, today’s expiry could be important for stocks with large open interest in at-the-money(ATM) options, as market makers delta-hedging their unusually large options portfolios will be active. This flow is likely to dampen volatility in some names while exacerbating stock price moves in others.</p><p><blockquote><b>总体而言，单个股票中有5440亿美元的期权将于今天到期，其中包括3050亿美元的评级。</b>因此，今天的到期对于平值（ATM）期权持有大量未平仓合约的股票可能很重要，因为做市商对其异常大的期权投资组合进行delta对冲将会很活跃。这种流动可能会抑制某些股票的波动，同时加剧其他股票的股价波动。</blockquote></p><p>How to trade this?</p><p><blockquote>这个怎么交易？</blockquote></p><p>As Goldman's Vishal Vivek writes, at major expirations, options traders track situations where<b>a large amount of open interest is set to expire.</b>In situations where there is a significant amount of expiring open interest in at-the-money strikes (strike prices at or very near the current stockprice), delta-hedging activity can impact the underlying stock’s trading that day. If market makers or other options traders who delta-hedge their positions are net long ATM options, expiration-related flow could have the effect of dampening stock price movements, causing the stock price to settle near the strike with large open interest. This situation is often referred to as a “pin” and can be an ideal situation fora large investor trying to enter/exit a stock position. Alternatively, if delta-hedgers are net short ATM options (have a “negative gamma” position), their hedging activity could exacerbate stock price moves.</p><p><blockquote>正如高盛的维沙尔·维韦克（Vishal Vivek）所写，在重大到期时，期权交易者会跟踪以下情况：<b>大量未平仓合约即将到期。</b>在平价执行（执行价格等于或非常接近当前股价）中存在大量到期未平仓合约的情况下，delta对冲活动可能会影响标的股票当天的交易。如果做市商或其他对其头寸进行delta对冲的期权交易者是净多头ATM期权，则与到期相关的流量可能会产生抑制股价走势的效果，导致股价以大量未平仓合约在行权附近结算。这种情况通常被称为“pin”，对于试图进入/退出股票头寸的大型投资者来说是理想的情况。或者，如果delta对冲者是ATM期权的净空头（具有“负伽马”头寸），他们的对冲活动可能会加剧股价波动。</blockquote></p><p>What that means it expiration-related trades may cause trading activity to aggressively pick up for stocks with a significant amount of ATM open interest.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着与到期相关的交易可能会导致具有大量ATM未平仓合约的股票的交易活动大幅回升。</blockquote></p><p>So to help traders looking to hop on for daytrading opportunities, here is a table identifying possible focus stocks with large ATM open interest expiring today, which is compared to the average daily volume of the underlying stocks. As Goldman puts it, \"<i>expiration-related activity is likely to have more of an impact if the open interest represents a significant percentage of the stock’s volume.\"</i></p><p><blockquote>因此，为了帮助寻求日内交易机会的交易者，这里有一个表格，列出了今天到期的ATM未平仓合约较大的可能焦点股票，并与标的股票的日均交易量进行了比较。正如高盛所说，“<i>如果未平仓合约占股票交易量的很大一部分，那么与到期相关的活动可能会产生更大的影响。”</i></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dac61cb87c2f2700d8a0e8e64324f81\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"638\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Finally, for what it's worth, this morning our friends at SpotGamma write that this has been a rather strange OPEX cycle, \"with a consistent almost mechanical bid pushing markets higher. We’ve not seen the Call Wall “breached” this many times before, but there are other aberrations that we’ve mentioned in previous notes – like net put sales. We’ve got some theories on this we are posting in a longer form piece.\"</p><p><blockquote>最后，值得一提的是，今天早上我们在SpotGamma的朋友写道，这是一个相当奇怪的运营支出周期，“持续的几乎机械的出价推动市场走高。我们以前从未见过看涨期权墙“突破”过很多次，但我们在之前的笔记中提到过其他异常现象，例如净看跌期权销售。我们对此有一些理论，我们将在一篇更长的文章中发布。”</blockquote></p><p>According to SG, because implied volatility has now compressed (ie VIX at new lows) there is now more potential for “long term” volatility. Recall how as of late any sharp, violent drop in markets was bought so quickly (see chart below).<b>These bursts lower coincided with record VIX spikes, but a reflective snap-back bid would bring a market recovery of equal force as the VIX&nbsp; (i.e. implied volatility) reversed.</b></p><p><blockquote>根据SG的说法，由于隐含波动率现在已经压缩（即VIX处于新低），现在“长期”波动的潜力更大。回想一下最近市场的任何剧烈下跌都是如何被如此迅速地买入的（见下图）。<b>这些大幅走低与创纪录的VIX飙升同时发生，但随着VIX（即隐含波动率）的逆转，反射性的snap回调将带来同等力度的市场复苏。</b></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae7a60d873792b825bdda669cafa0ed3\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">And one other curious observation from SpotGamma:</p><p><blockquote>SpotGamma的另一个奇怪观察：</blockquote></p><p>When implied volatility is very high, its very sensitive to market moves and also signaling that markets are expecting more large moves ahead. As soon as markets would pause or catch a support level, that implied volatility would quickly reverse lower. <b>We often think of this analogy that if a shark stops swimming, it sinks ( partially true!). If the market stops dropping then Implied volatility sinks.</b>With this, as we often talk about, lower implied volatility (ie lower VIX) signals market makers have to buy back short hedges which fuels rallies. SG's conclusion: this current level of lower implied volatility now gives the market more downside firepower.&nbsp; Starting with a lower implied volatility “slows down” that responsive “snap-back” buying mechanism.&nbsp; Additionally, gamma is higher when IV is lower so gamma flips may have more juice.</p><p><blockquote>当隐含波动率非常高时，它对市场走势非常敏感，也表明市场预计未来会有更大的波动。一旦市场暂停或抓住支撑位，隐含波动率就会迅速反转走低。<b>我们经常想到这样一个类比，如果鲨鱼停止游泳，它就会下沉（部分正确！）.如果市场停止下跌，那么隐含波动率就会下降。</b>正如我们经常谈论的那样，较低的隐含波动率（即较低的VIX）表明做市商必须回购空头对冲，从而推动反弹。SG的结论是：目前较低的隐含波动率水平给了市场更多的下行火力。从较低的隐含波动率开始会“减缓”反应性的“snap回”购买机制。此外，当IV较低时，伽马较高，因此伽马翻转可能有更多的果汁。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>$544 Billion In Options Expire Today: Here's What Will Move<blockquote>5440亿美元期权今天到期：以下是将发生的变化</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n$544 Billion In Options Expire Today: Here's What Will Move<blockquote>5440亿美元期权今天到期：以下是将发生的变化</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-16 22:18</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>While it's not quad (or even triple) witching day, today's a whole lot of weekly options will expire, may of which will be worthless, and others will be providing a supporting \"pin\" to underlying prices. It's why, even though we are enjoying a beautiful spring week, Goldman notes that single stock options trading activity is elevated relative to historical levels. To wit, daily options volumes are up 70% in April, up from YTD lows of $2.4bn on 30-Mar.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这不是四（甚至三）巫术日，但今天的大量每周期权将到期，其中可能一文不值，其他期权将为基础价格提供支持“引脚”。这就是为什么，尽管我们正在享受一个美丽的春季周，高盛指出，单一股票期权交易活动相对于历史水平有所上升。也就是说，4月份每日期权交易量增长了70%，高于3月30日年初至今24亿美元的低点。</blockquote></p><p><b>In total, across single stocks, $544BN of options are set to expiry today, including $305BN calls.</b>As such, today’s expiry could be important for stocks with large open interest in at-the-money(ATM) options, as market makers delta-hedging their unusually large options portfolios will be active. This flow is likely to dampen volatility in some names while exacerbating stock price moves in others.</p><p><blockquote><b>总体而言，单个股票中有5440亿美元的期权将于今天到期，其中包括3050亿美元的评级。</b>因此，今天的到期对于平值（ATM）期权持有大量未平仓合约的股票可能很重要，因为做市商对其异常大的期权投资组合进行delta对冲将会很活跃。这种流动可能会抑制某些股票的波动，同时加剧其他股票的股价波动。</blockquote></p><p>How to trade this?</p><p><blockquote>这个怎么交易？</blockquote></p><p>As Goldman's Vishal Vivek writes, at major expirations, options traders track situations where<b>a large amount of open interest is set to expire.</b>In situations where there is a significant amount of expiring open interest in at-the-money strikes (strike prices at or very near the current stockprice), delta-hedging activity can impact the underlying stock’s trading that day. If market makers or other options traders who delta-hedge their positions are net long ATM options, expiration-related flow could have the effect of dampening stock price movements, causing the stock price to settle near the strike with large open interest. This situation is often referred to as a “pin” and can be an ideal situation fora large investor trying to enter/exit a stock position. Alternatively, if delta-hedgers are net short ATM options (have a “negative gamma” position), their hedging activity could exacerbate stock price moves.</p><p><blockquote>正如高盛的维沙尔·维韦克（Vishal Vivek）所写，在重大到期时，期权交易者会跟踪以下情况：<b>大量未平仓合约即将到期。</b>在平价执行（执行价格等于或非常接近当前股价）中存在大量到期未平仓合约的情况下，delta对冲活动可能会影响标的股票当天的交易。如果做市商或其他对其头寸进行delta对冲的期权交易者是净多头ATM期权，则与到期相关的流量可能会产生抑制股价走势的效果，导致股价以大量未平仓合约在行权附近结算。这种情况通常被称为“pin”，对于试图进入/退出股票头寸的大型投资者来说是理想的情况。或者，如果delta对冲者是ATM期权的净空头（具有“负伽马”头寸），他们的对冲活动可能会加剧股价波动。</blockquote></p><p>What that means it expiration-related trades may cause trading activity to aggressively pick up for stocks with a significant amount of ATM open interest.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着与到期相关的交易可能会导致具有大量ATM未平仓合约的股票的交易活动大幅回升。</blockquote></p><p>So to help traders looking to hop on for daytrading opportunities, here is a table identifying possible focus stocks with large ATM open interest expiring today, which is compared to the average daily volume of the underlying stocks. As Goldman puts it, \"<i>expiration-related activity is likely to have more of an impact if the open interest represents a significant percentage of the stock’s volume.\"</i></p><p><blockquote>因此，为了帮助寻求日内交易机会的交易者，这里有一个表格，列出了今天到期的ATM未平仓合约较大的可能焦点股票，并与标的股票的日均交易量进行了比较。正如高盛所说，“<i>如果未平仓合约占股票交易量的很大一部分，那么与到期相关的活动可能会产生更大的影响。”</i></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dac61cb87c2f2700d8a0e8e64324f81\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"638\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Finally, for what it's worth, this morning our friends at SpotGamma write that this has been a rather strange OPEX cycle, \"with a consistent almost mechanical bid pushing markets higher. We’ve not seen the Call Wall “breached” this many times before, but there are other aberrations that we’ve mentioned in previous notes – like net put sales. We’ve got some theories on this we are posting in a longer form piece.\"</p><p><blockquote>最后，值得一提的是，今天早上我们在SpotGamma的朋友写道，这是一个相当奇怪的运营支出周期，“持续的几乎机械的出价推动市场走高。我们以前从未见过看涨期权墙“突破”过很多次，但我们在之前的笔记中提到过其他异常现象，例如净看跌期权销售。我们对此有一些理论，我们将在一篇更长的文章中发布。”</blockquote></p><p>According to SG, because implied volatility has now compressed (ie VIX at new lows) there is now more potential for “long term” volatility. Recall how as of late any sharp, violent drop in markets was bought so quickly (see chart below).<b>These bursts lower coincided with record VIX spikes, but a reflective snap-back bid would bring a market recovery of equal force as the VIX&nbsp; (i.e. implied volatility) reversed.</b></p><p><blockquote>根据SG的说法，由于隐含波动率现在已经压缩（即VIX处于新低），现在“长期”波动的潜力更大。回想一下最近市场的任何剧烈下跌都是如何被如此迅速地买入的（见下图）。<b>这些大幅走低与创纪录的VIX飙升同时发生，但随着VIX（即隐含波动率）的逆转，反射性的snap回调将带来同等力度的市场复苏。</b></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae7a60d873792b825bdda669cafa0ed3\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">And one other curious observation from SpotGamma:</p><p><blockquote>SpotGamma的另一个奇怪观察：</blockquote></p><p>When implied volatility is very high, its very sensitive to market moves and also signaling that markets are expecting more large moves ahead. As soon as markets would pause or catch a support level, that implied volatility would quickly reverse lower. <b>We often think of this analogy that if a shark stops swimming, it sinks ( partially true!). If the market stops dropping then Implied volatility sinks.</b>With this, as we often talk about, lower implied volatility (ie lower VIX) signals market makers have to buy back short hedges which fuels rallies. SG's conclusion: this current level of lower implied volatility now gives the market more downside firepower.&nbsp; Starting with a lower implied volatility “slows down” that responsive “snap-back” buying mechanism.&nbsp; Additionally, gamma is higher when IV is lower so gamma flips may have more juice.</p><p><blockquote>当隐含波动率非常高时，它对市场走势非常敏感，也表明市场预计未来会有更大的波动。一旦市场暂停或抓住支撑位，隐含波动率就会迅速反转走低。<b>我们经常想到这样一个类比，如果鲨鱼停止游泳，它就会下沉（部分正确！）.如果市场停止下跌，那么隐含波动率就会下降。</b>正如我们经常谈论的那样，较低的隐含波动率（即较低的VIX）表明做市商必须回购空头对冲，从而推动反弹。SG的结论是：目前较低的隐含波动率水平给了市场更多的下行火力。从较低的隐含波动率开始会“减缓”反应性的“snap回”购买机制。此外，当IV较低时，伽马较高，因此伽马翻转可能有更多的果汁。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/544-billion-options-expire-today-heres-what-will-move?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/544-billion-options-expire-today-heres-what-will-move?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175692875","content_text":"While it's not quad (or even triple) witching day, today's a whole lot of weekly options will expire, may of which will be worthless, and others will be providing a supporting \"pin\" to underlying prices. It's why, even though we are enjoying a beautiful spring week, Goldman notes that single stock options trading activity is elevated relative to historical levels. To wit, daily options volumes are up 70% in April, up from YTD lows of $2.4bn on 30-Mar.In total, across single stocks, $544BN of options are set to expiry today, including $305BN calls.As such, today’s expiry could be important for stocks with large open interest in at-the-money(ATM) options, as market makers delta-hedging their unusually large options portfolios will be active. This flow is likely to dampen volatility in some names while exacerbating stock price moves in others.How to trade this?As Goldman's Vishal Vivek writes, at major expirations, options traders track situations wherea large amount of open interest is set to expire.In situations where there is a significant amount of expiring open interest in at-the-money strikes (strike prices at or very near the current stockprice), delta-hedging activity can impact the underlying stock’s trading that day. If market makers or other options traders who delta-hedge their positions are net long ATM options, expiration-related flow could have the effect of dampening stock price movements, causing the stock price to settle near the strike with large open interest. This situation is often referred to as a “pin” and can be an ideal situation fora large investor trying to enter/exit a stock position. Alternatively, if delta-hedgers are net short ATM options (have a “negative gamma” position), their hedging activity could exacerbate stock price moves.What that means it expiration-related trades may cause trading activity to aggressively pick up for stocks with a significant amount of ATM open interest.So to help traders looking to hop on for daytrading opportunities, here is a table identifying possible focus stocks with large ATM open interest expiring today, which is compared to the average daily volume of the underlying stocks. As Goldman puts it, \"expiration-related activity is likely to have more of an impact if the open interest represents a significant percentage of the stock’s volume.\"Finally, for what it's worth, this morning our friends at SpotGamma write that this has been a rather strange OPEX cycle, \"with a consistent almost mechanical bid pushing markets higher. We’ve not seen the Call Wall “breached” this many times before, but there are other aberrations that we’ve mentioned in previous notes – like net put sales. We’ve got some theories on this we are posting in a longer form piece.\"According to SG, because implied volatility has now compressed (ie VIX at new lows) there is now more potential for “long term” volatility. Recall how as of late any sharp, violent drop in markets was bought so quickly (see chart below).These bursts lower coincided with record VIX spikes, but a reflective snap-back bid would bring a market recovery of equal force as the VIX  (i.e. implied volatility) reversed.And one other curious observation from SpotGamma:When implied volatility is very high, its very sensitive to market moves and also signaling that markets are expecting more large moves ahead. As soon as markets would pause or catch a support level, that implied volatility would quickly reverse lower. We often think of this analogy that if a shark stops swimming, it sinks ( partially true!). If the market stops dropping then Implied volatility sinks.With this, as we often talk about, lower implied volatility (ie lower VIX) signals market makers have to buy back short hedges which fuels rallies. SG's conclusion: this current level of lower implied volatility now gives the market more downside firepower.  Starting with a lower implied volatility “slows down” that responsive “snap-back” buying mechanism.  Additionally, gamma is higher when IV is lower so gamma flips may have more juice.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":475,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":344767194,"gmtCreate":1618444648118,"gmtModify":1634292938669,"author":{"id":"3573788390439161","authorId":"3573788390439161","name":"30ad6cc","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573788390439161","authorIdStr":"3573788390439161"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like and comment","listText":"Pls like and comment","text":"Pls like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/344767194","repostId":"1189551384","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":491,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":343969261,"gmtCreate":1617669954753,"gmtModify":1634297224434,"author":{"id":"3573788390439161","authorId":"3573788390439161","name":"30ad6cc","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573788390439161","authorIdStr":"3573788390439161"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/065a3456ca5c3647f6b2b4183c47f32b","width":"1080","height":"2650"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/343969261","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":665,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":343960481,"gmtCreate":1617669898743,"gmtModify":1634297225147,"author":{"id":"3573788390439161","authorId":"3573788390439161","name":"30ad6cc","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573788390439161","authorIdStr":"3573788390439161"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please help to like and share thanks","listText":"Please help to like and share thanks","text":"Please help to like and share thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/343960481","repostId":"1153914073","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":379,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":321261588,"gmtCreate":1615439798144,"gmtModify":1703489085464,"author":{"id":"3573788390439161","authorId":"3573788390439161","name":"30ad6cc","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573788390439161","authorIdStr":"3573788390439161"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Okay this is a stock","listText":"Okay this is a stock","text":"Okay this is a stock","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4dd3a3c1e1efdfb326278f1594133fb","width":"1080","height":"2622"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/321261588","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":715,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":321263591,"gmtCreate":1615439674713,"gmtModify":1703489083734,"author":{"id":"3573788390439161","authorId":"3573788390439161","name":"30ad6cc","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573788390439161","authorIdStr":"3573788390439161"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please help to like and comment, thanks!","listText":"Please help to like and comment, thanks!","text":"Please help to like and comment, thanks!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/321263591","repostId":"1166725903","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1166725903","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615437180,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1166725903?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-11 12:33","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Rise of the Retail Trader – How the Stimulus Money Finds Its Way to the Stock Market<blockquote>散户交易者的崛起——刺激资金如何进入股市</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166725903","media":"VantagePoint","summary":"During the 2020 pandemic, people around the world were forced to stay at home. Remote working became","content":"<p><b>During the 2020 pandemic, people around the world were forced to stay at home. Remote working became the norm, and, when not possible, the state intervened and supplemented the households’ income via fiscal support.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在2020年疫情期间，世界各地的人们被迫呆在家里。远程工作成为常态，在不可能的情况下，国家进行干预并通过财政支持补充家庭收入。</b></blockquote></p><p>The support took various forms. From cutting the VAT (e.g., in Germany) to direct help from the state towards the employees (i.e., Spain), to direct checks sent to the population – you name it. In the end, the income gap was filled – in some countries faster than in others.</p><p><blockquote>这种支持采取了各种形式。从削减增值税（如德国）到国家对雇员的直接帮助（如西班牙），再到直接向民众发放支票——应有尽有。最终，收入差距被填补了——在一些国家比其他国家更快。</blockquote></p><p>In the United States, most people earned even more during the pandemic than they did on their regular job. Because they had plenty of time to spend online, investing part of the stimulus came as a logical response to the lockdown. What started small transformed into a huge market-moving trend, as the retail trader now is responsible for wild market swings.</p><p><blockquote>在美国，大多数人在疫情期间的收入甚至比他们在正常工作中的收入还要高。因为他们有足够的时间上网，所以投资部分刺激措施是对封锁的合乎逻辑的反应。一开始很小的事情变成了一个巨大的市场移动趋势，因为散户交易者现在要对市场的剧烈波动负责。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66c132a0efc205eacad50657ca788c70\" tg-width=\"665\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Over 20% of Stimulus Checks Will Be Invested in the U.S. Stock Market</p><p><blockquote>超20%的刺激支票将投入美国股市</blockquote></p><p>A survey run by Deutsche Bank recently reveals that over 20% of the new $1.9 trillion “stimmy,” as retail traders call the fiscal stimulus, will find its way to the stock market. That is a nice push for the stock market, and the percentage is bigger among the age group 25-34. It shows that the new class of retail investors is here to stay, especially if we look at the younger group’s 40% planned stock market investment.</p><p><blockquote>德意志银行最近进行的一项调查显示，随着散户交易员看涨期权财政刺激，1.9万亿美元的新“刺激”中，超过20%将进入股市。这对股市来说是一个很好的推动，而且在25-34岁年龄组中这一比例更大。这表明新的散户阶层将继续存在，特别是如果我们看看年轻群体40%的计划股市投资。</blockquote></p><p>Indeed, since the second half of the last year, interest in stocktradinghas exploded in the United States. Retail trading literally took off, exceeding the volume of mutual funds and hedge funds combined.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，自去年下半年以来，美国对股票交易的兴趣激增。散户交易确实起飞了，超过了共同基金和对冲基金的总和。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa80060263afdbeb4a803d063ef42342\" tg-width=\"1263\" tg-height=\"868\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Moreover, retail traders suddenly realized the power of trading in unison. Wild market swings in some names (e.g., GameStop) in January of this year turned out to be driven by a group of millions of traders organized on a Reddit’s subgroup.</p><p><blockquote>而且，散户们突然异口同声地意识到了交易的力量。今年1月，一些公司（例如游戏驿站）的剧烈市场波动被证明是由Reddit子群上组织的数百万交易员推动的。</blockquote></p><p>Furthermore, their trading revealed deep knowledge of market mechanisms. They used a combination of direct common shares purchasing and call options to put pressure on hedge funds heavily exposed on the short side. The outcome? Short-sellers reported losses of hundreds of millions of dollars. Therefore, the retail trader is not represented by the baby boomer anymore, the passive investor interested in a buy and hold strategy.</p><p><blockquote>此外，他们的交易揭示了对市场机制的深刻了解。他们使用直接购买普通股和看涨期权期权的组合来向大量空头敞口的对冲基金施加压力。结果呢？卖空者报告损失数亿美元。因此，散户交易者不再以婴儿潮一代为代表，他们是对买入并持有策略感兴趣的被动投资者。</blockquote></p><p>Instead, the new retail trader is young, knowledgeable, sophisticated, and with a desire to learn. When you put some free money in the hands of such a trader, coordinating trading may result in wild stock market fluctuations.</p><p><blockquote>相反，新零售交易者年轻、知识渊博、老练，并且渴望学习。当你把一些闲钱放在这样的交易者手中时，协调交易可能会导致股市剧烈波动。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1615437168461","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Rise of the Retail Trader – How the Stimulus Money Finds Its Way to the Stock Market<blockquote>散户交易者的崛起——刺激资金如何进入股市</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Rise of the Retail Trader – How the Stimulus Money Finds Its Way to the Stock Market<blockquote>散户交易者的崛起——刺激资金如何进入股市</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">VantagePoint</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-11 12:33</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>During the 2020 pandemic, people around the world were forced to stay at home. Remote working became the norm, and, when not possible, the state intervened and supplemented the households’ income via fiscal support.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在2020年疫情期间，世界各地的人们被迫呆在家里。远程工作成为常态，在不可能的情况下，国家进行干预并通过财政支持补充家庭收入。</b></blockquote></p><p>The support took various forms. From cutting the VAT (e.g., in Germany) to direct help from the state towards the employees (i.e., Spain), to direct checks sent to the population – you name it. In the end, the income gap was filled – in some countries faster than in others.</p><p><blockquote>这种支持采取了各种形式。从削减增值税（如德国）到国家对雇员的直接帮助（如西班牙），再到直接向民众发放支票——应有尽有。最终，收入差距被填补了——在一些国家比其他国家更快。</blockquote></p><p>In the United States, most people earned even more during the pandemic than they did on their regular job. Because they had plenty of time to spend online, investing part of the stimulus came as a logical response to the lockdown. What started small transformed into a huge market-moving trend, as the retail trader now is responsible for wild market swings.</p><p><blockquote>在美国，大多数人在疫情期间的收入甚至比他们在正常工作中的收入还要高。因为他们有足够的时间上网，所以投资部分刺激措施是对封锁的合乎逻辑的反应。一开始很小的事情变成了一个巨大的市场移动趋势，因为散户交易者现在要对市场的剧烈波动负责。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66c132a0efc205eacad50657ca788c70\" tg-width=\"665\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Over 20% of Stimulus Checks Will Be Invested in the U.S. Stock Market</p><p><blockquote>超20%的刺激支票将投入美国股市</blockquote></p><p>A survey run by Deutsche Bank recently reveals that over 20% of the new $1.9 trillion “stimmy,” as retail traders call the fiscal stimulus, will find its way to the stock market. That is a nice push for the stock market, and the percentage is bigger among the age group 25-34. It shows that the new class of retail investors is here to stay, especially if we look at the younger group’s 40% planned stock market investment.</p><p><blockquote>德意志银行最近进行的一项调查显示，随着散户交易员看涨期权财政刺激，1.9万亿美元的新“刺激”中，超过20%将进入股市。这对股市来说是一个很好的推动，而且在25-34岁年龄组中这一比例更大。这表明新的散户阶层将继续存在，特别是如果我们看看年轻群体40%的计划股市投资。</blockquote></p><p>Indeed, since the second half of the last year, interest in stocktradinghas exploded in the United States. Retail trading literally took off, exceeding the volume of mutual funds and hedge funds combined.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，自去年下半年以来，美国对股票交易的兴趣激增。散户交易确实起飞了，超过了共同基金和对冲基金的总和。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa80060263afdbeb4a803d063ef42342\" tg-width=\"1263\" tg-height=\"868\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Moreover, retail traders suddenly realized the power of trading in unison. Wild market swings in some names (e.g., GameStop) in January of this year turned out to be driven by a group of millions of traders organized on a Reddit’s subgroup.</p><p><blockquote>而且，散户们突然异口同声地意识到了交易的力量。今年1月，一些公司（例如游戏驿站）的剧烈市场波动被证明是由Reddit子群上组织的数百万交易员推动的。</blockquote></p><p>Furthermore, their trading revealed deep knowledge of market mechanisms. They used a combination of direct common shares purchasing and call options to put pressure on hedge funds heavily exposed on the short side. The outcome? Short-sellers reported losses of hundreds of millions of dollars. Therefore, the retail trader is not represented by the baby boomer anymore, the passive investor interested in a buy and hold strategy.</p><p><blockquote>此外，他们的交易揭示了对市场机制的深刻了解。他们使用直接购买普通股和看涨期权期权的组合来向大量空头敞口的对冲基金施加压力。结果呢？卖空者报告损失数亿美元。因此，散户交易者不再以婴儿潮一代为代表，他们是对买入并持有策略感兴趣的被动投资者。</blockquote></p><p>Instead, the new retail trader is young, knowledgeable, sophisticated, and with a desire to learn. When you put some free money in the hands of such a trader, coordinating trading may result in wild stock market fluctuations.</p><p><blockquote>相反，新零售交易者年轻、知识渊博、老练，并且渴望学习。当你把一些闲钱放在这样的交易者手中时，协调交易可能会导致股市剧烈波动。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://vantagepointtrading.com/news/the-rise-of-the-retail-trader-how-the-stimulus-money-finds-its-way-to-the-stock-market/\">VantagePoint</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://vantagepointtrading.com/news/the-rise-of-the-retail-trader-how-the-stimulus-money-finds-its-way-to-the-stock-market/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166725903","content_text":"During the 2020 pandemic, people around the world were forced to stay at home. Remote working became the norm, and, when not possible, the state intervened and supplemented the households’ income via fiscal support.The support took various forms. From cutting the VAT (e.g., in Germany) to direct help from the state towards the employees (i.e., Spain), to direct checks sent to the population – you name it. In the end, the income gap was filled – in some countries faster than in others.In the United States, most people earned even more during the pandemic than they did on their regular job. Because they had plenty of time to spend online, investing part of the stimulus came as a logical response to the lockdown. What started small transformed into a huge market-moving trend, as the retail trader now is responsible for wild market swings.Over 20% of Stimulus Checks Will Be Invested in the U.S. Stock MarketA survey run by Deutsche Bank recently reveals that over 20% of the new $1.9 trillion “stimmy,” as retail traders call the fiscal stimulus, will find its way to the stock market. That is a nice push for the stock market, and the percentage is bigger among the age group 25-34. It shows that the new class of retail investors is here to stay, especially if we look at the younger group’s 40% planned stock market investment.Indeed, since the second half of the last year, interest in stocktradinghas exploded in the United States. Retail trading literally took off, exceeding the volume of mutual funds and hedge funds combined.Moreover, retail traders suddenly realized the power of trading in unison. Wild market swings in some names (e.g., GameStop) in January of this year turned out to be driven by a group of millions of traders organized on a Reddit’s subgroup.Furthermore, their trading revealed deep knowledge of market mechanisms. They used a combination of direct common shares purchasing and call options to put pressure on hedge funds heavily exposed on the short side. The outcome? Short-sellers reported losses of hundreds of millions of dollars. Therefore, the retail trader is not represented by the baby boomer anymore, the passive investor interested in a buy and hold strategy.Instead, the new retail trader is young, knowledgeable, sophisticated, and with a desire to learn. When you put some free money in the hands of such a trader, coordinating trading may result in wild stock market fluctuations.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":653,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":323791128,"gmtCreate":1615372961864,"gmtModify":1703488048850,"author":{"id":"3573788390439161","authorId":"3573788390439161","name":"30ad6cc","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573788390439161","authorIdStr":"3573788390439161"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please help to like and comment, thanks!","listText":"Please help to like and comment, thanks!","text":"Please help to like and comment, thanks!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/323791128","repostId":"1162030727","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1162030727","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615371076,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1162030727?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-10 18:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Equity-Gold Price Conundrum, Part 1: The Great Batsby<blockquote>股票-黄金价格难题，第1部分：伟大的蝙蝠侠</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1162030727","media":"zerohedge","summary":"The relentless rally in equity markets has pushed valuations to extreme levels based on traditional ","content":"<p>The relentless rally in equity markets has pushed valuations to extreme levels based on traditional metrics. In this report, we analyze the two common arguments made by equity bulls on why this time is different and current valuations are justified. We find that either gold or equities are currently mispriced, as, a) both arguments would imply that gold should outperform stocks and b) if neither of the scenarios play out, equities are due for a substantial correction.</p><p><blockquote>根据传统指标，股市的持续上涨已将估值推至极端水平。在本报告中，我们分析了股票多头提出的两个常见论点，即为什么这次不同以及当前估值是合理的。我们发现，黄金或股票目前的定价都是错误的，因为a)这两种论点都意味着黄金的表现应该优于股票，b)如果这两种情况都没有发生，股票将出现大幅调整。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95f7609bf84bf26bd5d2443fa9a7de86\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"445\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Amidst the global COVID-19 pandemic, equities had staggering rally over the past 12 months. The S&amp;P500 almost doubled in less than a year from a low of 2240 on March 23, 2020 to currently 3860 at the time of writing. In addition, some narrower indices have done even better. Particularly certain technology stocks have relentlessly risen amidst an environment of economic stress.</p><p><blockquote>在全球新冠肺炎疫情中，股市在过去12个月中出现了惊人的反弹。标准普尔500指数在不到一年的时间里几乎翻了一番，从2020年3月23日的低点2240点升至撰写本文时目前的3860点。此外，一些较窄的指数表现甚至更好。尤其是某些科技股在经济压力的环境下持续上涨。</blockquote></p><p>This has led to a sharp increase in the equities-to-gold price ratio (see Exhibit 1) even as economic growth has collapsed while the Fed increased its balance sheet at an unprecedented level.</p><p><blockquote>这导致股票与黄金的价格比率急剧上升（见图表1），尽管经济增长已经崩溃，而美联储以前所未有的水平增加了资产负债表。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a828b10b92375dfb19347e6c59314c83\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>This increase in the equities-to-gold-ratio is not caused by gold performing poorly as prices for the yellow metal are up12% since the end of 2019. It’s simply a consequence of equities’ doing really well. But equity valuations according to traditional metrics have now approached extreme levels. For example, the total market cap to GDP (Buffet indicator) is currently at 193% (see exhibit 2), the highest on record, 50% above the peak during the dot.com bubble.</p><p><blockquote>股票与黄金比率的上升并不是由黄金表现不佳造成的，因为自2019年底以来，黄金价格上涨了12%。这只是股市表现良好的结果。但根据传统指标，股票估值现已接近极端水平。例如，总市值占GDP（巴菲特指标）目前为193%（见图表2），为有记录以来的最高水平，比互联网泡沫期间的峰值高出50%。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e64899d2c53b18cc97b2dce33717c9af\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Moreover, global equities to GDP are also extremely high, currently at &gt;120% (see exhibit 3).</p><p><blockquote>此外，全球股票占GDP的比例也极高，目前超过120%（见图表3）。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef426becc1777204ae2f18e3c290e2e6\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"436\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The Cyclically Adjusted Price Earnings Ratio, or CAPE, a measure developed by Robert Schiller, is also flashing red with the second highest reading in history going back to the late 1900s (see exhibit 4).</p><p><blockquote>周期性调整市盈率（CAPE）是罗伯特·席勒（Robert Schiller）开发的一种衡量标准，也呈红色，其读数是自1900年代末以来历史上第二高的读数（见图表4）。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8cc92db52653acc17b59de9311c17bf0\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"442\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Price to sales ratios also hit a record high (see Exhibit 5).</p><p><blockquote>市销率也创下历史新高（见图表5）。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a119fa360112d18ced5d8efff557ebea\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"436\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">There are other indicators that suggest that equity prices have detached from underlying fundamentals. The put / call ratio on the CBOE has now reached the levels of the dot.com bubble (see Exhibit 6).</p><p><blockquote>还有其他指标表明股价已经脱离了基本面。芝加哥期权交易所的看跌/看涨期权比率现在已经达到了互联网泡沫的水平（见图表6）。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/462aa5d4dee82e50792b2a4f6bbd70f8\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">We also saw an unprecedented inflow of new market participants. People with very little or no market exp4erience opened online brokerage accounts at an unprecedented speed during the global lockdowns. More than 10 million Americans opened a trading account in 2020 according to the Wall Street Journal.&nbsp; According to CNBC, ten percent of Americans bought a stock for the first time in the past 12 months, and a staggering twenty-two percent of Gen Z (currently 6-24 years old) opened a stock market account in the last 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>我们还看到前所未有的新市场参与者流入。在全球封锁期间，很少或没有市场经验的人以前所未有的速度开设了在线经纪账户。据《华尔街日报》报道，2020年有超过1000万美国人开设了交易账户。据美国消费者新闻与商业频道报道，10%的美国人在过去12个月内首次购买股票，惊人的22%的Z世代（目前6-24岁）在过去12个月内开设了股市账户。</blockquote></p><p>And stocks are not the only assets that are skyrocketing. Cryptocurrencies, which since 2017 had temporarily lost their luster, are rallying at breakneck pace since the outbreak of the pandemic (see exhibit 7).</p><p><blockquote>股票并不是唯一暴涨的资产。自2017年以来暂时失去光彩的加密货币，自疫情爆发以来正在以极快的速度反弹（见图表7）。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46a4f01c4a7404c0a7b196d39dac0a78\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"424\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Judged on only those metrics, stock markets are clearly in a bubble. But is this time maybe really different as the bulls argue? In our view, there are only two ways that current stock prices could indeed be justified;</p><p><blockquote>仅从这些指标来看，股市显然处于泡沫之中。但这一次真的像多头所说的那样不同吗？在我们看来，只有两种方式可以证明当前的股价是合理的：</blockquote></p><p></p><p><b>1. The great Gatsby:</b>The pandemic, as negative as it was for economic activity near term, will be followed by a period of unprecedented economic expansion. Hence, GDP will rapidly rise and close the gap to equity prices. <b>2. The great inflation:</b>Stocks simply price in future inflation that eventually will come on the back of decades of ultra-low rates and central bank balance sheet expansionWe will take a close look at the validity of those scenarios below. As we will show, these scenarios would require that we enter a multi-year period of extreme economic growth or inflation or a mix of both.&nbsp; However, we will show that gold should outperform stocks in either scenario. And if neither scenario comes true, then stock markets are due for a substantial correction. In that scenario, we would expect central banks to eventually intervene, which should ultimately also benefit gold. Hence, the fact that stocks have vastly outperformed gold over the past months is somewhat of a conundrum. But we are confident that this will reverse going forward.</p><p><blockquote><b>1.了不起的盖茨比：</b>尽管疫情在短期内对经济活动不利，但接下来将是一段前所未有的经济扩张时期。因此，GDP将迅速上升，并缩小与股票价格的差距。<b>2.大通货膨胀：</b>股票只是对未来的通胀进行定价，而未来的通胀最终将在数十年的超低利率和央行资产负债表扩张的背景下出现。我们将在下面仔细研究这些情景的有效性。正如我们将展示的，这些情景将要求我们进入一个多年的极端经济增长或通货膨胀或两者兼而有之的时期。然而，我们将表明，在这两种情况下，黄金的表现都应该优于股票。如果这两种情况都没有实现，那么股市将出现大幅调整。在这种情况下，我们预计央行最终会进行干预，这最终也应该有利于黄金。因此，过去几个月股票的表现大大优于黄金的事实在某种程度上是一个难题。但我们相信，这种情况将在未来逆转。</blockquote></p><p><b>Scenario one: The great Gatsby</b></p><p><blockquote><b>场景一：了不起的盖茨比</b></blockquote></p><p>Proponents of the great Gatsby scenario argue that, once the COVID19 pandemic is behind us as enough people are vaccinated and normality returns, economic activity will explode. The argumentation goes that there is a lot of pent-up demand as people were forced to save during the lockdowns and are eager to consume. This demand will be further fueled by stimulus checks (potentially in perpetuity, UBI). At the same time, governments around the world are rolling out huge green infrastructure programs, partially to combat climate change and partially to jump-start the economy.</p><p><blockquote>《了不起的盖茨比》的支持者认为，一旦COVID19疫情成为过去，有足够多的人接种疫苗，恢复正常，经济活动将会爆发。这种观点认为，由于人们在封锁期间被迫储蓄并渴望消费，因此存在大量被压抑的需求。刺激检查（可能是永久性的，UBI）将进一步推动这种需求。与此同时，世界各国政府正在推出庞大的绿色基础设施项目，部分是为了应对气候变化，部分是为了提振经济。</blockquote></p><p>While some of these deliberations have merit, there are a few important caveats. In our view, it is extremely unlikely for the economy to simply pick up where we left even if the current measures intended to contain the pandemic are completely removed. Many small businesses have closed forever or are about to close in the near term. The surviving businesses are aggressively cutting costs by a) laying off staff and b) trimming production. The former will impact on consumer demand going forward, the latter will impact on the businesses that are further up in the production chain. While there may be pent-up consumer demand from those who still have a job and saved a lot of money during lockdowns, there are also likely to be a lot of pent-up bankruptcies as many businesses have simply survived so far due to government intervention. Eventually many of those businesses will close. This is especially true in many European economies where governments de facto paid companies not to fire people.</p><p><blockquote>虽然其中一些审议有其优点，但也有一些重要的警告。我们认为，即使目前旨在遏制疫情的措施完全取消，经济也极不可能简单地从我们离开的地方恢复过来。许多小企业已经永远关闭或即将在短期内关闭。幸存的企业正在通过a)裁员和b)削减产量来积极削减成本。前者将影响未来的消费者需求，后者将影响生产链更上游的企业。虽然那些仍然有工作并在封锁期间存了很多钱的人可能会有被压抑的消费者需求，但也可能会有很多被压抑的破产，因为许多企业迄今为止只是由于政府干预而幸存下来。最终，许多这样的企业将会关闭。在许多欧洲经济体尤其如此，在这些经济体，政府实际上付钱给公司不要解雇员工。</blockquote></p><p>The problem is compounded by the fact that the economy was already stuttering long before Coronavirus became a household name. The Fed had to aggressively reverse its hiking cycle already by 3Q2019 as markets started to turn sour. We believe that we are close to or already in a recession by late 2019. Hence, a simple return to the pre-COVID economy would mean back to a “normal” recession. Thus, the drivers for this apparent future multi-year super growth cycle have to be strong enough to offset these bearish factors as well.</p><p><blockquote>早在冠状病毒成为家喻户晓的名字之前，经济就已经陷入困境，这一事实使问题变得更加复杂。随着市场开始恶化，美联储不得不在2019年第三季度之前大幅扭转加息周期。我们认为，到2019年底，我们将接近或已经陷入衰退。因此，简单地回到COVID之前的经济将意味着回到“正常”衰退。因此，这个明显的未来多年超级增长周期的驱动力必须足够强大，以抵消这些看跌因素。</blockquote></p><p>Then there is the magnitude by how much the economy would have to expand to justify these kind of equity valuations. If you take a simple metric like market cap to GDP, then GDP would have to almost double from current levels to be in line with historical averages. That implies a nominal GDP of $40tn, or 86% above the levels before COVID (average 2019). Granted that market cap to GDP was already inflated to around 1.2 on average in the ten years prior to the pandemic due to ultra-low interest rates, a return to that average would still require nominal GDP to rise to $35tn or 63% from pre-COVID levels.</p><p><blockquote>然后是经济必须扩张多少才能证明这种股票估值的合理性。如果你用一个简单的指标来衡量GDP，那么GDP必须比当前水平翻一番才能与历史平均水平保持一致。这意味着名义GDP为40万亿美元，比COVID之前的水平（2019年平均水平）高出86%。尽管由于超低利率，在大流行之前的十年里，市值与GDP之比已经平均膨胀至1.2左右，但要恢复到这一平均水平，仍需要名义GDP升至35万亿美元，即较前水平的63%。</blockquote></p><p>Even with a staggering 5% annual GDP growth and 2% inflation, it would still take more than seven years to get there. Are stocks really pricing in the year 2028 with 0% discount rate? And if so, what would be the fundamental driver to push stocks even higher from here? &nbsp;And is there even historic precedent for these kind of growth numbers? In the post WWII period, there have been only two instances where economic expansion was that high for a prolonged period (see Exhibit 8).</p><p><blockquote>即使GDP年增长率达到惊人的5%，通货膨胀率达到2%，仍需要七年多的时间才能实现。2028年股票真的以0%贴现率定价吗？如果是这样，推动股市进一步走高的根本驱动力是什么？这种增长数字有历史先例吗？在二战后时期，只有两次经济扩张在很长一段时间内如此之高（见图表8）。</blockquote></p><p>After WWII ended, the US saw a few years of moderate growth as government spending plummeted, followed by very high growth rates at around 6.9% between 1949 and 1953. This was possible as the US was one of the very few countries where none of the infrastructure had been destroyed and the rest of the world had to be rebuilt. However mathematically, even a repetition of the 1949-53 growth period over the coming years would not be enough to justify current stock prices as it lasted for “only” four years before the US fell into another recession.</p><p><blockquote>二战结束后，随着政府支出暴跌，美国经历了几年的温和增长，随后在1949年至1953年间实现了约6.9%的高增长率。这是可能的，因为美国是极少数基础设施没有被摧毁、世界其他地区必须重建的国家之一。然而，从数学上讲，即使在未来几年重复1949-53年的增长期也不足以证明当前股价的合理性，因为在美国陷入另一场衰退之前，它“只”持续了四年。</blockquote></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0e3916e88c1ee473c5ea235b229f969\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">From 1958-1969, the US economy was able to grow close to 5% with a brief monetary recession in 1960. In our view, this 1960s growth period is the only one that reflects the magnitude and length needed to get US GDP back in line with current equity prices. However, the economic environment of the 1960s looked very different from where we are now. More specifically, the US exited WWII with record debt to GPD of over 100%. However, it then immediately cut spending (which resulted in the slower growth rates in the immediate years after WWII) and reduced debt. Inflation also picked up, which, to some extent, helped reducing debt even further[1]. By 1959, the US government had reduced its debt held by the public to 44%, and it dropped to 27% by the end of the 60s (see exhibit 9).</p><p><blockquote>从1958年到1969年，美国经济能够增长近5%，1960年经历了短暂的货币衰退。我们认为，20世纪60年代的增长期是唯一反映美国GDP与当前股价接轨所需的规模和长度的时期。然而，20世纪60年代的经济环境看起来与我们现在有很大不同。更具体地说，美国退出二战时对GPD的债务超过100%。然而，它随后立即削减支出（这导致了二战后几年的增长率放缓）并减少了债务。通货膨胀也有所上升，这在某种程度上有助于进一步减少债务[1]。到1959年，美国政府将公众持有的债务降至44%，到60年代末又降至27%（见图表9）。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ee79afe5f74fa39abc86b197930c486\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Additionally, 10-year treasury rates average at around 5% during this entire growth period. This is a stark contrast to the 1.5% we are seeing now (which already seem to rattle markets). Furthermore, the FED has no room to the downside, as Fed funds rates are already at zero percent. Hence, the only monetary stimulus that is left is via continued and even more extreme QE. However, as we have shown many times before (see&nbsp;Gold Price Framework Vol. 2: The energy side of the equation,&nbsp;<i>28 May 2018</i>), QE has always a huge and direct effect on gold prices, and gold is currently not pricing any of that in. Instead, the equity and gold markets seem to be pricing in economic expansion that is driven by anything but more monetary stimulus.</p><p><blockquote>此外，在整个增长期内，10年期国债利率平均约为5%。这与我们现在看到的1.5%形成鲜明对比（这似乎已经扰乱了市场）。此外，美联储没有下行空间，因为联邦基金利率已经为零。因此，剩下的唯一货币刺激是通过持续甚至更极端的量化宽松。然而，正如我们之前多次展示的那样（参见黄金价格框架第2卷：等式的能量面，<i>2018年5月28日</i>），QE总是对黄金价格产生巨大而直接的影响，而黄金目前并没有对其中的任何一项进行定价。相反，股票和黄金市场似乎正在为经济扩张定价，而经济扩张是由更多的货币刺激推动的。</blockquote></p><p>Another theme of the great Gatsby scenario is that governments will unleash massive transformation towards a greener future. This will lead to huge infrastructure investments in energy, transportation and commodity space, create jobs and unlock economic growth. While we believe that this is likely to be true, what the market seems to ignore is that this can only be financed with more government debt. Central banks will ultimately have to buy that debt, which has the same effect as QE as it leads to a growing balance sheet. And as we have outlined before, higher QE leads to higher gold prices. So again, if markets are pricing in economic expansion on the back of a “green new deal”, they seem to wrongly assume that this can be done without an effect on gold price.</p><p><blockquote>《了不起的盖茨比》的另一个主题是，政府将向更绿色的未来发起大规模变革。这将导致能源、交通和商品领域的巨额基础设施投资，创造就业机会并释放经济增长。虽然我们认为这很可能是真的，但市场似乎忽视的是，这只能通过更多的政府债务来融资。央行最终将不得不购买这些债务，这与量化宽松的效果相同，因为它会导致资产负债表不断扩大。正如我们之前概述的，更高的QE会导致更高的金价。因此，如果市场在“绿色新政”的支持下定价经济扩张，他们似乎错误地认为这可以在不影响金价的情况下实现。</blockquote></p><p>Lastly, there is the idea that the COVID relief checks will continue indefinitely, de facto introducing a sort of Universal Basic Income (UBI). This would have an effect on consumer spending and, thus, corporate revenues. However, currently the US is running the largest deficit in history. If UBI becomes a reality, this would also have to be entirely financed via debt. As mentioned before, markets are not pricing this in, otherwise we would see an effect on gold.</p><p><blockquote>最后，有一种观点认为，COVID救济支票将无限期地继续下去，事实上引入了一种普遍基本收入（UBI）。这将对消费者支出产生影响，从而影响企业收入。然而，目前美国正面临历史上最大的赤字。如果UBI成为现实，这也必须完全通过债务融资。如前所述，市场没有对此进行定价，否则我们将看到对黄金的影响。</blockquote></p><p><b>Thus, the equity-gold conundrum doesn’t disappear in the great Gatsby scenario. In fact, we think that if we see strong economic growth over the coming years, it will entirely be debt financed and as a consequence gold should outperform stocks, not the other way around.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>因此，在《了不起的盖茨比》的场景中，股票-黄金难题并没有消失。事实上，我们认为，如果我们在未来几年看到强劲的经济增长，它将完全由债务融资，因此黄金的表现应该优于股票，而不是相反。</b></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Equity-Gold Price Conundrum, Part 1: The Great Batsby<blockquote>股票-黄金价格难题，第1部分：伟大的蝙蝠侠</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Equity-Gold Price Conundrum, Part 1: The Great Batsby<blockquote>股票-黄金价格难题，第1部分：伟大的蝙蝠侠</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-10 18:11</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The relentless rally in equity markets has pushed valuations to extreme levels based on traditional metrics. In this report, we analyze the two common arguments made by equity bulls on why this time is different and current valuations are justified. We find that either gold or equities are currently mispriced, as, a) both arguments would imply that gold should outperform stocks and b) if neither of the scenarios play out, equities are due for a substantial correction.</p><p><blockquote>根据传统指标，股市的持续上涨已将估值推至极端水平。在本报告中，我们分析了股票多头提出的两个常见论点，即为什么这次不同以及当前估值是合理的。我们发现，黄金或股票目前的定价都是错误的，因为a)这两种论点都意味着黄金的表现应该优于股票，b)如果这两种情况都没有发生，股票将出现大幅调整。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95f7609bf84bf26bd5d2443fa9a7de86\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"445\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Amidst the global COVID-19 pandemic, equities had staggering rally over the past 12 months. The S&amp;P500 almost doubled in less than a year from a low of 2240 on March 23, 2020 to currently 3860 at the time of writing. In addition, some narrower indices have done even better. Particularly certain technology stocks have relentlessly risen amidst an environment of economic stress.</p><p><blockquote>在全球新冠肺炎疫情中，股市在过去12个月中出现了惊人的反弹。标准普尔500指数在不到一年的时间里几乎翻了一番，从2020年3月23日的低点2240点升至撰写本文时目前的3860点。此外，一些较窄的指数表现甚至更好。尤其是某些科技股在经济压力的环境下持续上涨。</blockquote></p><p>This has led to a sharp increase in the equities-to-gold price ratio (see Exhibit 1) even as economic growth has collapsed while the Fed increased its balance sheet at an unprecedented level.</p><p><blockquote>这导致股票与黄金的价格比率急剧上升（见图表1），尽管经济增长已经崩溃，而美联储以前所未有的水平增加了资产负债表。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a828b10b92375dfb19347e6c59314c83\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>This increase in the equities-to-gold-ratio is not caused by gold performing poorly as prices for the yellow metal are up12% since the end of 2019. It’s simply a consequence of equities’ doing really well. But equity valuations according to traditional metrics have now approached extreme levels. For example, the total market cap to GDP (Buffet indicator) is currently at 193% (see exhibit 2), the highest on record, 50% above the peak during the dot.com bubble.</p><p><blockquote>股票与黄金比率的上升并不是由黄金表现不佳造成的，因为自2019年底以来，黄金价格上涨了12%。这只是股市表现良好的结果。但根据传统指标，股票估值现已接近极端水平。例如，总市值占GDP（巴菲特指标）目前为193%（见图表2），为有记录以来的最高水平，比互联网泡沫期间的峰值高出50%。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e64899d2c53b18cc97b2dce33717c9af\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Moreover, global equities to GDP are also extremely high, currently at &gt;120% (see exhibit 3).</p><p><blockquote>此外，全球股票占GDP的比例也极高，目前超过120%（见图表3）。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef426becc1777204ae2f18e3c290e2e6\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"436\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The Cyclically Adjusted Price Earnings Ratio, or CAPE, a measure developed by Robert Schiller, is also flashing red with the second highest reading in history going back to the late 1900s (see exhibit 4).</p><p><blockquote>周期性调整市盈率（CAPE）是罗伯特·席勒（Robert Schiller）开发的一种衡量标准，也呈红色，其读数是自1900年代末以来历史上第二高的读数（见图表4）。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8cc92db52653acc17b59de9311c17bf0\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"442\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Price to sales ratios also hit a record high (see Exhibit 5).</p><p><blockquote>市销率也创下历史新高（见图表5）。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a119fa360112d18ced5d8efff557ebea\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"436\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">There are other indicators that suggest that equity prices have detached from underlying fundamentals. The put / call ratio on the CBOE has now reached the levels of the dot.com bubble (see Exhibit 6).</p><p><blockquote>还有其他指标表明股价已经脱离了基本面。芝加哥期权交易所的看跌/看涨期权比率现在已经达到了互联网泡沫的水平（见图表6）。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/462aa5d4dee82e50792b2a4f6bbd70f8\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">We also saw an unprecedented inflow of new market participants. People with very little or no market exp4erience opened online brokerage accounts at an unprecedented speed during the global lockdowns. More than 10 million Americans opened a trading account in 2020 according to the Wall Street Journal.&nbsp; According to CNBC, ten percent of Americans bought a stock for the first time in the past 12 months, and a staggering twenty-two percent of Gen Z (currently 6-24 years old) opened a stock market account in the last 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>我们还看到前所未有的新市场参与者流入。在全球封锁期间，很少或没有市场经验的人以前所未有的速度开设了在线经纪账户。据《华尔街日报》报道，2020年有超过1000万美国人开设了交易账户。据美国消费者新闻与商业频道报道，10%的美国人在过去12个月内首次购买股票，惊人的22%的Z世代（目前6-24岁）在过去12个月内开设了股市账户。</blockquote></p><p>And stocks are not the only assets that are skyrocketing. Cryptocurrencies, which since 2017 had temporarily lost their luster, are rallying at breakneck pace since the outbreak of the pandemic (see exhibit 7).</p><p><blockquote>股票并不是唯一暴涨的资产。自2017年以来暂时失去光彩的加密货币，自疫情爆发以来正在以极快的速度反弹（见图表7）。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46a4f01c4a7404c0a7b196d39dac0a78\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"424\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Judged on only those metrics, stock markets are clearly in a bubble. But is this time maybe really different as the bulls argue? In our view, there are only two ways that current stock prices could indeed be justified;</p><p><blockquote>仅从这些指标来看，股市显然处于泡沫之中。但这一次真的像多头所说的那样不同吗？在我们看来，只有两种方式可以证明当前的股价是合理的：</blockquote></p><p></p><p><b>1. The great Gatsby:</b>The pandemic, as negative as it was for economic activity near term, will be followed by a period of unprecedented economic expansion. Hence, GDP will rapidly rise and close the gap to equity prices. <b>2. The great inflation:</b>Stocks simply price in future inflation that eventually will come on the back of decades of ultra-low rates and central bank balance sheet expansionWe will take a close look at the validity of those scenarios below. As we will show, these scenarios would require that we enter a multi-year period of extreme economic growth or inflation or a mix of both.&nbsp; However, we will show that gold should outperform stocks in either scenario. And if neither scenario comes true, then stock markets are due for a substantial correction. In that scenario, we would expect central banks to eventually intervene, which should ultimately also benefit gold. Hence, the fact that stocks have vastly outperformed gold over the past months is somewhat of a conundrum. But we are confident that this will reverse going forward.</p><p><blockquote><b>1.了不起的盖茨比：</b>尽管疫情在短期内对经济活动不利，但接下来将是一段前所未有的经济扩张时期。因此，GDP将迅速上升，并缩小与股票价格的差距。<b>2.大通货膨胀：</b>股票只是对未来的通胀进行定价，而未来的通胀最终将在数十年的超低利率和央行资产负债表扩张的背景下出现。我们将在下面仔细研究这些情景的有效性。正如我们将展示的，这些情景将要求我们进入一个多年的极端经济增长或通货膨胀或两者兼而有之的时期。然而，我们将表明，在这两种情况下，黄金的表现都应该优于股票。如果这两种情况都没有实现，那么股市将出现大幅调整。在这种情况下，我们预计央行最终会进行干预，这最终也应该有利于黄金。因此，过去几个月股票的表现大大优于黄金的事实在某种程度上是一个难题。但我们相信，这种情况将在未来逆转。</blockquote></p><p><b>Scenario one: The great Gatsby</b></p><p><blockquote><b>场景一：了不起的盖茨比</b></blockquote></p><p>Proponents of the great Gatsby scenario argue that, once the COVID19 pandemic is behind us as enough people are vaccinated and normality returns, economic activity will explode. The argumentation goes that there is a lot of pent-up demand as people were forced to save during the lockdowns and are eager to consume. This demand will be further fueled by stimulus checks (potentially in perpetuity, UBI). At the same time, governments around the world are rolling out huge green infrastructure programs, partially to combat climate change and partially to jump-start the economy.</p><p><blockquote>《了不起的盖茨比》的支持者认为，一旦COVID19疫情成为过去，有足够多的人接种疫苗，恢复正常，经济活动将会爆发。这种观点认为，由于人们在封锁期间被迫储蓄并渴望消费，因此存在大量被压抑的需求。刺激检查（可能是永久性的，UBI）将进一步推动这种需求。与此同时，世界各国政府正在推出庞大的绿色基础设施项目，部分是为了应对气候变化，部分是为了提振经济。</blockquote></p><p>While some of these deliberations have merit, there are a few important caveats. In our view, it is extremely unlikely for the economy to simply pick up where we left even if the current measures intended to contain the pandemic are completely removed. Many small businesses have closed forever or are about to close in the near term. The surviving businesses are aggressively cutting costs by a) laying off staff and b) trimming production. The former will impact on consumer demand going forward, the latter will impact on the businesses that are further up in the production chain. While there may be pent-up consumer demand from those who still have a job and saved a lot of money during lockdowns, there are also likely to be a lot of pent-up bankruptcies as many businesses have simply survived so far due to government intervention. Eventually many of those businesses will close. This is especially true in many European economies where governments de facto paid companies not to fire people.</p><p><blockquote>虽然其中一些审议有其优点，但也有一些重要的警告。我们认为，即使目前旨在遏制疫情的措施完全取消，经济也极不可能简单地从我们离开的地方恢复过来。许多小企业已经永远关闭或即将在短期内关闭。幸存的企业正在通过a)裁员和b)削减产量来积极削减成本。前者将影响未来的消费者需求，后者将影响生产链更上游的企业。虽然那些仍然有工作并在封锁期间存了很多钱的人可能会有被压抑的消费者需求，但也可能会有很多被压抑的破产，因为许多企业迄今为止只是由于政府干预而幸存下来。最终，许多这样的企业将会关闭。在许多欧洲经济体尤其如此，在这些经济体，政府实际上付钱给公司不要解雇员工。</blockquote></p><p>The problem is compounded by the fact that the economy was already stuttering long before Coronavirus became a household name. The Fed had to aggressively reverse its hiking cycle already by 3Q2019 as markets started to turn sour. We believe that we are close to or already in a recession by late 2019. Hence, a simple return to the pre-COVID economy would mean back to a “normal” recession. Thus, the drivers for this apparent future multi-year super growth cycle have to be strong enough to offset these bearish factors as well.</p><p><blockquote>早在冠状病毒成为家喻户晓的名字之前，经济就已经陷入困境，这一事实使问题变得更加复杂。随着市场开始恶化，美联储不得不在2019年第三季度之前大幅扭转加息周期。我们认为，到2019年底，我们将接近或已经陷入衰退。因此，简单地回到COVID之前的经济将意味着回到“正常”衰退。因此，这个明显的未来多年超级增长周期的驱动力必须足够强大，以抵消这些看跌因素。</blockquote></p><p>Then there is the magnitude by how much the economy would have to expand to justify these kind of equity valuations. If you take a simple metric like market cap to GDP, then GDP would have to almost double from current levels to be in line with historical averages. That implies a nominal GDP of $40tn, or 86% above the levels before COVID (average 2019). Granted that market cap to GDP was already inflated to around 1.2 on average in the ten years prior to the pandemic due to ultra-low interest rates, a return to that average would still require nominal GDP to rise to $35tn or 63% from pre-COVID levels.</p><p><blockquote>然后是经济必须扩张多少才能证明这种股票估值的合理性。如果你用一个简单的指标来衡量GDP，那么GDP必须比当前水平翻一番才能与历史平均水平保持一致。这意味着名义GDP为40万亿美元，比COVID之前的水平（2019年平均水平）高出86%。尽管由于超低利率，在大流行之前的十年里，市值与GDP之比已经平均膨胀至1.2左右，但要恢复到这一平均水平，仍需要名义GDP升至35万亿美元，即较前水平的63%。</blockquote></p><p>Even with a staggering 5% annual GDP growth and 2% inflation, it would still take more than seven years to get there. Are stocks really pricing in the year 2028 with 0% discount rate? And if so, what would be the fundamental driver to push stocks even higher from here? &nbsp;And is there even historic precedent for these kind of growth numbers? In the post WWII period, there have been only two instances where economic expansion was that high for a prolonged period (see Exhibit 8).</p><p><blockquote>即使GDP年增长率达到惊人的5%，通货膨胀率达到2%，仍需要七年多的时间才能实现。2028年股票真的以0%贴现率定价吗？如果是这样，推动股市进一步走高的根本驱动力是什么？这种增长数字有历史先例吗？在二战后时期，只有两次经济扩张在很长一段时间内如此之高（见图表8）。</blockquote></p><p>After WWII ended, the US saw a few years of moderate growth as government spending plummeted, followed by very high growth rates at around 6.9% between 1949 and 1953. This was possible as the US was one of the very few countries where none of the infrastructure had been destroyed and the rest of the world had to be rebuilt. However mathematically, even a repetition of the 1949-53 growth period over the coming years would not be enough to justify current stock prices as it lasted for “only” four years before the US fell into another recession.</p><p><blockquote>二战结束后，随着政府支出暴跌，美国经历了几年的温和增长，随后在1949年至1953年间实现了约6.9%的高增长率。这是可能的，因为美国是极少数基础设施没有被摧毁、世界其他地区必须重建的国家之一。然而，从数学上讲，即使在未来几年重复1949-53年的增长期也不足以证明当前股价的合理性，因为在美国陷入另一场衰退之前，它“只”持续了四年。</blockquote></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0e3916e88c1ee473c5ea235b229f969\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">From 1958-1969, the US economy was able to grow close to 5% with a brief monetary recession in 1960. In our view, this 1960s growth period is the only one that reflects the magnitude and length needed to get US GDP back in line with current equity prices. However, the economic environment of the 1960s looked very different from where we are now. More specifically, the US exited WWII with record debt to GPD of over 100%. However, it then immediately cut spending (which resulted in the slower growth rates in the immediate years after WWII) and reduced debt. Inflation also picked up, which, to some extent, helped reducing debt even further[1]. By 1959, the US government had reduced its debt held by the public to 44%, and it dropped to 27% by the end of the 60s (see exhibit 9).</p><p><blockquote>从1958年到1969年，美国经济能够增长近5%，1960年经历了短暂的货币衰退。我们认为，20世纪60年代的增长期是唯一反映美国GDP与当前股价接轨所需的规模和长度的时期。然而，20世纪60年代的经济环境看起来与我们现在有很大不同。更具体地说，美国退出二战时对GPD的债务超过100%。然而，它随后立即削减支出（这导致了二战后几年的增长率放缓）并减少了债务。通货膨胀也有所上升，这在某种程度上有助于进一步减少债务[1]。到1959年，美国政府将公众持有的债务降至44%，到60年代末又降至27%（见图表9）。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ee79afe5f74fa39abc86b197930c486\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Additionally, 10-year treasury rates average at around 5% during this entire growth period. This is a stark contrast to the 1.5% we are seeing now (which already seem to rattle markets). Furthermore, the FED has no room to the downside, as Fed funds rates are already at zero percent. Hence, the only monetary stimulus that is left is via continued and even more extreme QE. However, as we have shown many times before (see&nbsp;Gold Price Framework Vol. 2: The energy side of the equation,&nbsp;<i>28 May 2018</i>), QE has always a huge and direct effect on gold prices, and gold is currently not pricing any of that in. Instead, the equity and gold markets seem to be pricing in economic expansion that is driven by anything but more monetary stimulus.</p><p><blockquote>此外，在整个增长期内，10年期国债利率平均约为5%。这与我们现在看到的1.5%形成鲜明对比（这似乎已经扰乱了市场）。此外，美联储没有下行空间，因为联邦基金利率已经为零。因此，剩下的唯一货币刺激是通过持续甚至更极端的量化宽松。然而，正如我们之前多次展示的那样（参见黄金价格框架第2卷：等式的能量面，<i>2018年5月28日</i>），QE总是对黄金价格产生巨大而直接的影响，而黄金目前并没有对其中的任何一项进行定价。相反，股票和黄金市场似乎正在为经济扩张定价，而经济扩张是由更多的货币刺激推动的。</blockquote></p><p>Another theme of the great Gatsby scenario is that governments will unleash massive transformation towards a greener future. This will lead to huge infrastructure investments in energy, transportation and commodity space, create jobs and unlock economic growth. While we believe that this is likely to be true, what the market seems to ignore is that this can only be financed with more government debt. Central banks will ultimately have to buy that debt, which has the same effect as QE as it leads to a growing balance sheet. And as we have outlined before, higher QE leads to higher gold prices. So again, if markets are pricing in economic expansion on the back of a “green new deal”, they seem to wrongly assume that this can be done without an effect on gold price.</p><p><blockquote>《了不起的盖茨比》的另一个主题是，政府将向更绿色的未来发起大规模变革。这将导致能源、交通和商品领域的巨额基础设施投资，创造就业机会并释放经济增长。虽然我们认为这很可能是真的，但市场似乎忽视的是，这只能通过更多的政府债务来融资。央行最终将不得不购买这些债务，这与量化宽松的效果相同，因为它会导致资产负债表不断扩大。正如我们之前概述的，更高的QE会导致更高的金价。因此，如果市场在“绿色新政”的支持下定价经济扩张，他们似乎错误地认为这可以在不影响金价的情况下实现。</blockquote></p><p>Lastly, there is the idea that the COVID relief checks will continue indefinitely, de facto introducing a sort of Universal Basic Income (UBI). This would have an effect on consumer spending and, thus, corporate revenues. However, currently the US is running the largest deficit in history. If UBI becomes a reality, this would also have to be entirely financed via debt. As mentioned before, markets are not pricing this in, otherwise we would see an effect on gold.</p><p><blockquote>最后，有一种观点认为，COVID救济支票将无限期地继续下去，事实上引入了一种普遍基本收入（UBI）。这将对消费者支出产生影响，从而影响企业收入。然而，目前美国正面临历史上最大的赤字。如果UBI成为现实，这也必须完全通过债务融资。如前所述，市场没有对此进行定价，否则我们将看到对黄金的影响。</blockquote></p><p><b>Thus, the equity-gold conundrum doesn’t disappear in the great Gatsby scenario. In fact, we think that if we see strong economic growth over the coming years, it will entirely be debt financed and as a consequence gold should outperform stocks, not the other way around.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>因此，在《了不起的盖茨比》的场景中，股票-黄金难题并没有消失。事实上，我们认为，如果我们在未来几年看到强劲的经济增长，它将完全由债务融资，因此黄金的表现应该优于股票，而不是相反。</b></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/equity-gold-price-conundrum-part-1-great-batsby?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohege%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/equity-gold-price-conundrum-part-1-great-batsby?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohege%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1162030727","content_text":"The relentless rally in equity markets has pushed valuations to extreme levels based on traditional metrics. In this report, we analyze the two common arguments made by equity bulls on why this time is different and current valuations are justified. We find that either gold or equities are currently mispriced, as, a) both arguments would imply that gold should outperform stocks and b) if neither of the scenarios play out, equities are due for a substantial correction.Amidst the global COVID-19 pandemic, equities had staggering rally over the past 12 months. The S&P500 almost doubled in less than a year from a low of 2240 on March 23, 2020 to currently 3860 at the time of writing. In addition, some narrower indices have done even better. Particularly certain technology stocks have relentlessly risen amidst an environment of economic stress.This has led to a sharp increase in the equities-to-gold price ratio (see Exhibit 1) even as economic growth has collapsed while the Fed increased its balance sheet at an unprecedented level.This increase in the equities-to-gold-ratio is not caused by gold performing poorly as prices for the yellow metal are up12% since the end of 2019. It’s simply a consequence of equities’ doing really well. But equity valuations according to traditional metrics have now approached extreme levels. For example, the total market cap to GDP (Buffet indicator) is currently at 193% (see exhibit 2), the highest on record, 50% above the peak during the dot.com bubble.Moreover, global equities to GDP are also extremely high, currently at >120% (see exhibit 3).The Cyclically Adjusted Price Earnings Ratio, or CAPE, a measure developed by Robert Schiller, is also flashing red with the second highest reading in history going back to the late 1900s (see exhibit 4).Price to sales ratios also hit a record high (see Exhibit 5).There are other indicators that suggest that equity prices have detached from underlying fundamentals. The put / call ratio on the CBOE has now reached the levels of the dot.com bubble (see Exhibit 6).We also saw an unprecedented inflow of new market participants. People with very little or no market exp4erience opened online brokerage accounts at an unprecedented speed during the global lockdowns. More than 10 million Americans opened a trading account in 2020 according to the Wall Street Journal.  According to CNBC, ten percent of Americans bought a stock for the first time in the past 12 months, and a staggering twenty-two percent of Gen Z (currently 6-24 years old) opened a stock market account in the last 12 months.And stocks are not the only assets that are skyrocketing. Cryptocurrencies, which since 2017 had temporarily lost their luster, are rallying at breakneck pace since the outbreak of the pandemic (see exhibit 7).Judged on only those metrics, stock markets are clearly in a bubble. But is this time maybe really different as the bulls argue? In our view, there are only two ways that current stock prices could indeed be justified;1. The great Gatsby:The pandemic, as negative as it was for economic activity near term, will be followed by a period of unprecedented economic expansion. Hence, GDP will rapidly rise and close the gap to equity prices. 2. The great inflation:Stocks simply price in future inflation that eventually will come on the back of decades of ultra-low rates and central bank balance sheet expansionWe will take a close look at the validity of those scenarios below. As we will show, these scenarios would require that we enter a multi-year period of extreme economic growth or inflation or a mix of both.  However, we will show that gold should outperform stocks in either scenario. And if neither scenario comes true, then stock markets are due for a substantial correction. In that scenario, we would expect central banks to eventually intervene, which should ultimately also benefit gold. Hence, the fact that stocks have vastly outperformed gold over the past months is somewhat of a conundrum. But we are confident that this will reverse going forward.Scenario one: The great GatsbyProponents of the great Gatsby scenario argue that, once the COVID19 pandemic is behind us as enough people are vaccinated and normality returns, economic activity will explode. The argumentation goes that there is a lot of pent-up demand as people were forced to save during the lockdowns and are eager to consume. This demand will be further fueled by stimulus checks (potentially in perpetuity, UBI). At the same time, governments around the world are rolling out huge green infrastructure programs, partially to combat climate change and partially to jump-start the economy.While some of these deliberations have merit, there are a few important caveats. In our view, it is extremely unlikely for the economy to simply pick up where we left even if the current measures intended to contain the pandemic are completely removed. Many small businesses have closed forever or are about to close in the near term. The surviving businesses are aggressively cutting costs by a) laying off staff and b) trimming production. The former will impact on consumer demand going forward, the latter will impact on the businesses that are further up in the production chain. While there may be pent-up consumer demand from those who still have a job and saved a lot of money during lockdowns, there are also likely to be a lot of pent-up bankruptcies as many businesses have simply survived so far due to government intervention. Eventually many of those businesses will close. This is especially true in many European economies where governments de facto paid companies not to fire people.The problem is compounded by the fact that the economy was already stuttering long before Coronavirus became a household name. The Fed had to aggressively reverse its hiking cycle already by 3Q2019 as markets started to turn sour. We believe that we are close to or already in a recession by late 2019. Hence, a simple return to the pre-COVID economy would mean back to a “normal” recession. Thus, the drivers for this apparent future multi-year super growth cycle have to be strong enough to offset these bearish factors as well.Then there is the magnitude by how much the economy would have to expand to justify these kind of equity valuations. If you take a simple metric like market cap to GDP, then GDP would have to almost double from current levels to be in line with historical averages. That implies a nominal GDP of $40tn, or 86% above the levels before COVID (average 2019). Granted that market cap to GDP was already inflated to around 1.2 on average in the ten years prior to the pandemic due to ultra-low interest rates, a return to that average would still require nominal GDP to rise to $35tn or 63% from pre-COVID levels.Even with a staggering 5% annual GDP growth and 2% inflation, it would still take more than seven years to get there. Are stocks really pricing in the year 2028 with 0% discount rate? And if so, what would be the fundamental driver to push stocks even higher from here?  And is there even historic precedent for these kind of growth numbers? In the post WWII period, there have been only two instances where economic expansion was that high for a prolonged period (see Exhibit 8).After WWII ended, the US saw a few years of moderate growth as government spending plummeted, followed by very high growth rates at around 6.9% between 1949 and 1953. This was possible as the US was one of the very few countries where none of the infrastructure had been destroyed and the rest of the world had to be rebuilt. However mathematically, even a repetition of the 1949-53 growth period over the coming years would not be enough to justify current stock prices as it lasted for “only” four years before the US fell into another recession.From 1958-1969, the US economy was able to grow close to 5% with a brief monetary recession in 1960. In our view, this 1960s growth period is the only one that reflects the magnitude and length needed to get US GDP back in line with current equity prices. However, the economic environment of the 1960s looked very different from where we are now. More specifically, the US exited WWII with record debt to GPD of over 100%. However, it then immediately cut spending (which resulted in the slower growth rates in the immediate years after WWII) and reduced debt. Inflation also picked up, which, to some extent, helped reducing debt even further[1]. By 1959, the US government had reduced its debt held by the public to 44%, and it dropped to 27% by the end of the 60s (see exhibit 9).Additionally, 10-year treasury rates average at around 5% during this entire growth period. This is a stark contrast to the 1.5% we are seeing now (which already seem to rattle markets). Furthermore, the FED has no room to the downside, as Fed funds rates are already at zero percent. Hence, the only monetary stimulus that is left is via continued and even more extreme QE. However, as we have shown many times before (see Gold Price Framework Vol. 2: The energy side of the equation, 28 May 2018), QE has always a huge and direct effect on gold prices, and gold is currently not pricing any of that in. Instead, the equity and gold markets seem to be pricing in economic expansion that is driven by anything but more monetary stimulus.Another theme of the great Gatsby scenario is that governments will unleash massive transformation towards a greener future. This will lead to huge infrastructure investments in energy, transportation and commodity space, create jobs and unlock economic growth. While we believe that this is likely to be true, what the market seems to ignore is that this can only be financed with more government debt. Central banks will ultimately have to buy that debt, which has the same effect as QE as it leads to a growing balance sheet. And as we have outlined before, higher QE leads to higher gold prices. So again, if markets are pricing in economic expansion on the back of a “green new deal”, they seem to wrongly assume that this can be done without an effect on gold price.Lastly, there is the idea that the COVID relief checks will continue indefinitely, de facto introducing a sort of Universal Basic Income (UBI). This would have an effect on consumer spending and, thus, corporate revenues. However, currently the US is running the largest deficit in history. If UBI becomes a reality, this would also have to be entirely financed via debt. As mentioned before, markets are not pricing this in, otherwise we would see an effect on gold.Thus, the equity-gold conundrum doesn’t disappear in the great Gatsby scenario. In fact, we think that if we see strong economic growth over the coming years, it will entirely be debt financed and as a consequence gold should outperform stocks, not the other way around.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":623,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":329428749,"gmtCreate":1615272158381,"gmtModify":1703486551098,"author":{"id":"3573788390439161","authorId":"3573788390439161","name":"30ad6cc","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573788390439161","authorIdStr":"3573788390439161"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please help to like and comment, thanks!","listText":"Please help to like and comment, thanks!","text":"Please help to like and comment, thanks!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/329428749","repostId":"1158720704","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":549,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":329164224,"gmtCreate":1615215674768,"gmtModify":1703485833399,"author":{"id":"3573788390439161","authorId":"3573788390439161","name":"30ad6cc","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573788390439161","authorIdStr":"3573788390439161"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please help to like and comment, thanks!","listText":"Please help to like and comment, thanks!","text":"Please help to like and comment, thanks!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/329164224","repostId":"1166350867","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1166350867","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1615215209,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1166350867?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-08 22:53","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple stock sank more than 2%<blockquote>苹果股价下跌逾2%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166350867","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"Apple stock sank more than 2% on Monday.Rumors that Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL) will hold a special har","content":"<p>Apple stock sank more than 2%&nbsp;on&nbsp;Monday.Rumors that&nbsp;<b>Apple Inc</b> (NASDAQ: AAPL) will hold a special hardware event next month and release new iPad Pro models, iPad mini, and AirTags have been dismissed by a leading watcher of the tech giant, Apple Insider reported Sunday.</p><p><blockquote>苹果股价周一下跌逾2%。有传言称<b>苹果公司</b>据《苹果内幕》周日报道，（纳斯达克：AAPL）将于下个月举办一场特别的硬件活动，并发布新的iPad Pro型号、iPad mini和AirTags已被这家科技巨头的一位主要观察人士驳回。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b6f4d601a19418bfb008c7cc9bc7f52\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple stock sank more than 2%<blockquote>苹果股价下跌逾2%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-03-08 22:53</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Apple stock sank more than 2%&nbsp;on&nbsp;Monday.Rumors that&nbsp;<b>Apple Inc</b> (NASDAQ: AAPL) will hold a special hardware event next month and release new iPad Pro models, iPad mini, and AirTags have been dismissed by a leading watcher of the tech giant, Apple Insider reported Sunday.</p><p><blockquote>苹果股价周一下跌逾2%。有传言称<b>苹果公司</b>据《苹果内幕》周日报道，（纳斯达克：AAPL）将于下个月举办一场特别的硬件活动，并发布新的iPad Pro型号、iPad mini和AirTags已被这家科技巨头的一位主要观察人士驳回。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b6f4d601a19418bfb008c7cc9bc7f52\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166350867","content_text":"Apple stock sank more than 2% on Monday.Rumors that Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL) will hold a special hardware event next month and release new iPad Pro models, iPad mini, and AirTags have been dismissed by a leading watcher of the tech giant, Apple Insider reported Sunday.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":516,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":364882203,"gmtCreate":1614834126602,"gmtModify":1703481739818,"author":{"id":"3573788390439161","authorId":"3573788390439161","name":"30ad6cc","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573788390439161","authorIdStr":"3573788390439161"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please like and comment, thanks!","listText":"Please like and comment, thanks!","text":"Please like and comment, thanks!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/364882203","repostId":"1186654577","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1186654577","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614829597,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1186654577?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-04 11:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"2 Hot 5G Stocks to Buy Before They Explode<blockquote>2只热门5G股票在爆炸前买入</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1186654577","media":"Nasdaq","summary":"The smartphone market turned around in the fourth quarter of 2020 and ended a difficult year on a hi","content":"<p>The smartphone market turned around in the fourth quarter of 2020 and ended a difficult year on a high. IDC estimates that smartphone shipments jumped 4.3% year-over-year last quarter to 385.9 million units, paving the way for a strong recovery in 2021 after a 5.9% decline in shipments last year.</p><p><blockquote>智能手机市场于2020年第四季度扭转局面，并在高位结束了艰难的一年。IDC估计，上季度智能手机出货量同比增长4.3%至3.859亿部，为继去年出货量下降5.9%后，2021年的强劲复苏铺平了道路。</blockquote></p><p><b>Skyworks Solutions</b>(NASDAQ: <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SWKS\">$(SWKS)$</a>)and<b>Micron Technology</b>(NASDAQ: <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">$(MU)$</a>)are two stocks that are already taking advantage of this turnaround, as they manufacture chips that go into 5G (fifth-generation) smartphones. Skyworks is witnessingtremendous growthin its mobile business, while Micron is about to join the party as well. These factors have contributed to a strong start on the market this year.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48b767d4f2f28bb7d1309b7de0e38239\" tg-width=\"714\" tg-height=\"488\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">These chipmakers are unlikely to lose their impressive stock market momentum in the coming months, as 5G smartphone sales are expected to switch into a higher gear in 2021.<b>Gartner</b>forecasts that global 5G smartphone shipments could jump to nearly 539 million units this year and account for 35% of the overall market. This would be a huge jump over last year's 5G smartphone shipments of 213 million units, and pave the way for stronger growth in Skyworks and Micron's mobile businesses in 2021.</p><p><blockquote><b>Skyworks解决方案</b>（纳斯达克：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SWKS\">$(SWKS)$</a>）和<b>美光科技</b>（纳斯达克：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">$（亩）$</a>）是两只已经利用这一转变的股票，因为它们生产用于5G（第五代）智能手机的芯片。Skyworks正在见证其移动业务的巨大增长，而美光也即将加入这一行列。这些因素促成了今年市场的强劲开局。这些芯片制造商不太可能在未来几个月失去令人印象深刻的股市势头，因为5G智能手机的销售预计将在2021年进入更高的档位。<b>Gartner</b>预测今年全球5G智能手机出货量可能跃升至近5.39亿部，占整体市场的35%。与去年2.13亿部的5G智能手机出货量相比，这将是一个巨大的飞跃，并为Skyworks和美光移动业务在2021年的更强劲增长铺平道路。</blockquote></p><p><b>1. Skyworks Solutions' mobile business is on a roll</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.Skyworks Solutions的移动业务发展势头良好</b></blockquote></p><p>Skyworks' mobile business is its biggest source of revenue, accounting for 78% of its top line last quarter. Skyworks' mobile revenue shot up 81% year-over-year in the first quarter of fiscal 2021, which ended on Jan. 1, 2021, to $1.18 billion.<b>Apple</b>(NASDAQ: AAPL)-- Skyworks' largest customer, generating 56% of total revenue --hit goldwith its latest flagship devices, and that sent the chipmaker's mobile business soaring.</p><p><blockquote>Skyworks的移动业务是其最大的收入来源，占上季度营收的78%。截至2021年1月1日的2021财年第一季度，Skyworks的移动收入同比猛增81%，达到11.8亿美元。<b>苹果</b>（纳斯达克：AAPL）——Skyworks最大的客户，占总收入的56%——凭借其最新的旗舰设备获得了金牌，这使得这家芯片制造商的移动业务飙升。</blockquote></p><p>The Apple catalyst is here to stay for Skyworks for the remainder of the year, for a couple of reasons. First, Apple is expected to remain atop 5G smartphone supplierin 2021 thanks to a large base of users in an upgrade window. Apple's well-priced iPhone 12 lineup and the possibility ofan entry-level devicesupporting the latest wireless standard could help the smartphone giant record strong shipment gains in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>出于几个原因，苹果催化剂将在今年剩余时间里留在Skyworks。首先，由于升级窗口中的大量用户，苹果预计将在2021年保持5G智能手机供应商的领先地位。苹果价格合理的iPhone 12系列以及支持最新无线标准的入门级设备的可能性可能会帮助这家智能手机巨头在2021年创下强劲的出货量增长。</blockquote></p><p>Second, Skyworks is a key Apple supplier. It reportedly supplies as many as eight radio-frequency (RF) modules for the iPhone 12, so Skyworks could see a nice spike in volumes and gain more revenue per iPhone, especially as 5G chips are more expensive than their 4G predecessors.</p><p><blockquote>其次，Skyworks是苹果的关键供应商。据报道，它为iPhone 12提供了多达8个射频（RF）模块，因此Skyworks可能会看到销量大幅飙升，并获得每部iPhone的更多收入，特别是在5G芯片比4G前辈更贵的情况下。</blockquote></p><p>Throw in the fact that Skyworks has started ramping up shipments of its 5G chips to other smartphone OEMs (original equipment manufacturers) such as Vivo, Oppo,<b>Samsung</b>, and<b>Xiaomi</b>, and it becomes easier to see why its mobile business could continue clocking high growth rates. And Skyworks' non-mobile business (better known as the broad markets portfolio) is also benefiting from the 5G rollout.</p><p><blockquote>再加上Skyworks已开始增加其5G芯片向其他智能手机OEM（原始设备制造商）的出货量，例如Vivo、Oppo、<b>三星</b>，和<b>小米</b>，也就更容易理解为什么其移动业务能够继续保持高增长率。Skyworks的非移动业务（更广为人知的名称是广泛的市场投资组合）也受益于5G的推出。</blockquote></p><p>The company's broad markets revenue shot up 35% year-over-year during the quarter as demand for its connectivity solutions supporting 5G infrastructure remained strong. Skyworks recently pointed out that it has shipped more than a million of its 5G small-cell power amplifiers, which help telecom carriers boost network speed.</p><p><blockquote>由于对其支持5G基础设施的连接解决方案的需求依然强劲，该公司的广阔市场收入在本季度同比猛增35%。Skyworks最近指出，其5G小蜂窝功率放大器的出货量已超过100万台，这些放大器有助于电信运营商提高网络速度。</blockquote></p><p>The company also says that the 5G small-cell market still has a lot of room to grow. It could be worth $8.3 billion by 2027, clocking a compound annual growth rate of 43% in the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>该公司还表示，5G小蜂窝市场仍有很大的增长空间。到2027年，它的价值可能达到83亿美元，未来几年的复合年增长率为43%。</blockquote></p><p>Thanks to such impressive catalysts, it isn't surprising to see that Skyworks' top and bottom lines are expected to take off this fiscal year. And it isn't too late for investors to jump onto this bandwagon, as thistop 5G stocktrades at an attractive 21 times forward earnings.</p><p><blockquote>得益于如此令人印象深刻的催化剂，Skyworks的营收和利润预计将在本财年起飞也就不足为奇了。对于投资者来说，加入这一潮流还为时不晚，因为这只顶级5G股票的预期市盈率为21倍，颇具吸引力。</blockquote></p><p><b>2. Micron Technology's mobile business is about to step on the gas</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.美光科技移动业务即将踩油门</b></blockquote></p><p>Micron Technology's mobile business unit delivered $1.5 billion in revenue in the first quarter of fiscal 2021, which ended on Dec. 3, 2020. The segment's revenue increased 3% year-over-year, accounting for nearly 26% of total revenue. Though Micron's mobile growth wasn't as spectacular as Skyworks', management pointed out that mobile \"demand remains strong as 5G momentum increases and the mobile market recovers from the impact of the pandemic.\"</p><p><blockquote>美光科技的移动业务部门在截至2020年12月3日的2021财年第一季度实现了15亿美元的收入。该部门的收入同比增长3%，占总收入的近26%。尽管美光的移动增长不如Skyworks那么引人注目，但管理层指出，“随着5G势头的增强以及移动市场从大流行的影响中复苏，移动需求仍然强劲。”</blockquote></p><p>Mobile accounts for 40% of the overall DRAM market, according to a third-party estimate, and manufacturers such as Micron are reportedly allocating more capacity toward the production of mobile DRAM to meet the recent surge in demand. In fact, demand seems to be so strong that mobile DRAM orders placed in the fourth quarter of 2020 are expected to be fulfilled only in the current quarter.</p><p><blockquote>据第三方估计，移动DRAM占整个DRAM市场的40%，据报道，美光等制造商正在分配更多产能用于移动DRAM的生产，以满足最近激增的需求。事实上，需求似乎如此强劲，以至于2020年第四季度下的移动DRAM订单预计只能在本季度完成。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>This tight supply of DRAM should ideally result in improved pricing. Industry data supports that: The spot price of the 8 GB DDR4 DRAM jumped to $3.93 earlier in February, a sharp jump over the spot price of $2.54 seen in August 2020.</p><p><blockquote>理想情况下，这种DRAM供应紧张应该会提高定价。行业数据支持这一点：8 GB DDR4 DRAM的现货价格在2月初跃升至3.93美元，较2020年8月2.54美元的现货价格大幅上涨。</blockquote></p><p>More importantly, mobile DRAM demand should remain strong, as 5G smartphones are beingequipped with more memorythan their 4G predecessors. This bodes well for Micron, as it reportedly controls 20% of the mobile DRAM market. What's more, the company is trying to grab even more of this space withspecialized 5G memory chipsthat help reduce space and power consumption while delivering faster performance.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，移动DRAM需求应该会保持强劲，因为5G智能手机比4G智能手机配备了更多的内存。这对美光来说是个好兆头，因为据报道，它控制着20%的移动DRAM市场。更重要的是，该公司正试图通过专门的5G存储芯片来抢占更多空间，这些芯片有助于减少空间和功耗，同时提供更快的性能。</blockquote></p><p>So a mix of higher pricing and improved shipment volumes will be a tailwind for Micron's mobile business this year. More importantly, the mobile DRAM market presents a long-term growth opportunity for Micron given its solid market share in this space. The global mobile DRAM market's revenue is expected to jump from an estimated $19.5 billion last year to $35.6 billion in 2027, according to a third-party estimate.</p><p><blockquote>因此，更高的定价和更好的出货量将成为美光今年移动业务的推动力。更重要的是，鉴于美光在该领域稳固的市场份额，移动DRAM市场为美光提供了长期增长机会。根据第三方估计，全球移动DRAM市场的收入预计将从去年的195亿美元跃升至2027年的356亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Thrownother catalystssuch as data centers, consoles, and personal computers into the mix, and it isn't too difficult to see why Micron's earnings are expected to grow at a fast clip over the next couple of years.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4432a84bca38fc32d66f505cac1dbae\" tg-width=\"758\" tg-height=\"493\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">MU EPS Estimates for Next Fiscal Yeardata byYCharts</p><p><blockquote>再加上数据中心、游戏机和个人电脑等其他催化剂，就不难理解为什么美光科技的盈利预计将在未来几年快速增长。MU下一财年每股收益预测数据来自YCharts</blockquote></p><p>That's why investors looking to buy a diversified company to take advantage of the growing adoption of 5G smartphones might want to consider Micron Technology, as it has multiple businesses driving its growth. What's more, Micron is trading at less than 22 times forward earnings, so it isn't too late to buy thisgrowth stock-- it has room for more upside thanks to catalysts such as 5G smartphones.</p><p><blockquote>这就是为什么希望收购一家多元化公司以利用5G智能手机日益普及的机会的投资者可能会考虑美光科技，因为该公司拥有多项业务推动其增长。更重要的是，美光科技的预期市盈率不到22倍，因此购买这只成长型股票还为时不晚——得益于5G智能手机等催化剂，它还有更大的上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603171495471","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2 Hot 5G Stocks to Buy Before They Explode<blockquote>2只热门5G股票在爆炸前买入</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2 Hot 5G Stocks to Buy Before They Explode<blockquote>2只热门5G股票在爆炸前买入</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Nasdaq</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-04 11:46</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The smartphone market turned around in the fourth quarter of 2020 and ended a difficult year on a high. IDC estimates that smartphone shipments jumped 4.3% year-over-year last quarter to 385.9 million units, paving the way for a strong recovery in 2021 after a 5.9% decline in shipments last year.</p><p><blockquote>智能手机市场于2020年第四季度扭转局面，并在高位结束了艰难的一年。IDC估计，上季度智能手机出货量同比增长4.3%至3.859亿部，为继去年出货量下降5.9%后，2021年的强劲复苏铺平了道路。</blockquote></p><p><b>Skyworks Solutions</b>(NASDAQ: <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SWKS\">$(SWKS)$</a>)and<b>Micron Technology</b>(NASDAQ: <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">$(MU)$</a>)are two stocks that are already taking advantage of this turnaround, as they manufacture chips that go into 5G (fifth-generation) smartphones. Skyworks is witnessingtremendous growthin its mobile business, while Micron is about to join the party as well. These factors have contributed to a strong start on the market this year.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48b767d4f2f28bb7d1309b7de0e38239\" tg-width=\"714\" tg-height=\"488\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">These chipmakers are unlikely to lose their impressive stock market momentum in the coming months, as 5G smartphone sales are expected to switch into a higher gear in 2021.<b>Gartner</b>forecasts that global 5G smartphone shipments could jump to nearly 539 million units this year and account for 35% of the overall market. This would be a huge jump over last year's 5G smartphone shipments of 213 million units, and pave the way for stronger growth in Skyworks and Micron's mobile businesses in 2021.</p><p><blockquote><b>Skyworks解决方案</b>（纳斯达克：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SWKS\">$(SWKS)$</a>）和<b>美光科技</b>（纳斯达克：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">$（亩）$</a>）是两只已经利用这一转变的股票，因为它们生产用于5G（第五代）智能手机的芯片。Skyworks正在见证其移动业务的巨大增长，而美光也即将加入这一行列。这些因素促成了今年市场的强劲开局。这些芯片制造商不太可能在未来几个月失去令人印象深刻的股市势头，因为5G智能手机的销售预计将在2021年进入更高的档位。<b>Gartner</b>预测今年全球5G智能手机出货量可能跃升至近5.39亿部，占整体市场的35%。与去年2.13亿部的5G智能手机出货量相比，这将是一个巨大的飞跃，并为Skyworks和美光移动业务在2021年的更强劲增长铺平道路。</blockquote></p><p><b>1. Skyworks Solutions' mobile business is on a roll</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.Skyworks Solutions的移动业务发展势头良好</b></blockquote></p><p>Skyworks' mobile business is its biggest source of revenue, accounting for 78% of its top line last quarter. Skyworks' mobile revenue shot up 81% year-over-year in the first quarter of fiscal 2021, which ended on Jan. 1, 2021, to $1.18 billion.<b>Apple</b>(NASDAQ: AAPL)-- Skyworks' largest customer, generating 56% of total revenue --hit goldwith its latest flagship devices, and that sent the chipmaker's mobile business soaring.</p><p><blockquote>Skyworks的移动业务是其最大的收入来源，占上季度营收的78%。截至2021年1月1日的2021财年第一季度，Skyworks的移动收入同比猛增81%，达到11.8亿美元。<b>苹果</b>（纳斯达克：AAPL）——Skyworks最大的客户，占总收入的56%——凭借其最新的旗舰设备获得了金牌，这使得这家芯片制造商的移动业务飙升。</blockquote></p><p>The Apple catalyst is here to stay for Skyworks for the remainder of the year, for a couple of reasons. First, Apple is expected to remain atop 5G smartphone supplierin 2021 thanks to a large base of users in an upgrade window. Apple's well-priced iPhone 12 lineup and the possibility ofan entry-level devicesupporting the latest wireless standard could help the smartphone giant record strong shipment gains in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>出于几个原因，苹果催化剂将在今年剩余时间里留在Skyworks。首先，由于升级窗口中的大量用户，苹果预计将在2021年保持5G智能手机供应商的领先地位。苹果价格合理的iPhone 12系列以及支持最新无线标准的入门级设备的可能性可能会帮助这家智能手机巨头在2021年创下强劲的出货量增长。</blockquote></p><p>Second, Skyworks is a key Apple supplier. It reportedly supplies as many as eight radio-frequency (RF) modules for the iPhone 12, so Skyworks could see a nice spike in volumes and gain more revenue per iPhone, especially as 5G chips are more expensive than their 4G predecessors.</p><p><blockquote>其次，Skyworks是苹果的关键供应商。据报道，它为iPhone 12提供了多达8个射频（RF）模块，因此Skyworks可能会看到销量大幅飙升，并获得每部iPhone的更多收入，特别是在5G芯片比4G前辈更贵的情况下。</blockquote></p><p>Throw in the fact that Skyworks has started ramping up shipments of its 5G chips to other smartphone OEMs (original equipment manufacturers) such as Vivo, Oppo,<b>Samsung</b>, and<b>Xiaomi</b>, and it becomes easier to see why its mobile business could continue clocking high growth rates. And Skyworks' non-mobile business (better known as the broad markets portfolio) is also benefiting from the 5G rollout.</p><p><blockquote>再加上Skyworks已开始增加其5G芯片向其他智能手机OEM（原始设备制造商）的出货量，例如Vivo、Oppo、<b>三星</b>，和<b>小米</b>，也就更容易理解为什么其移动业务能够继续保持高增长率。Skyworks的非移动业务（更广为人知的名称是广泛的市场投资组合）也受益于5G的推出。</blockquote></p><p>The company's broad markets revenue shot up 35% year-over-year during the quarter as demand for its connectivity solutions supporting 5G infrastructure remained strong. Skyworks recently pointed out that it has shipped more than a million of its 5G small-cell power amplifiers, which help telecom carriers boost network speed.</p><p><blockquote>由于对其支持5G基础设施的连接解决方案的需求依然强劲，该公司的广阔市场收入在本季度同比猛增35%。Skyworks最近指出，其5G小蜂窝功率放大器的出货量已超过100万台，这些放大器有助于电信运营商提高网络速度。</blockquote></p><p>The company also says that the 5G small-cell market still has a lot of room to grow. It could be worth $8.3 billion by 2027, clocking a compound annual growth rate of 43% in the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>该公司还表示，5G小蜂窝市场仍有很大的增长空间。到2027年，它的价值可能达到83亿美元，未来几年的复合年增长率为43%。</blockquote></p><p>Thanks to such impressive catalysts, it isn't surprising to see that Skyworks' top and bottom lines are expected to take off this fiscal year. And it isn't too late for investors to jump onto this bandwagon, as thistop 5G stocktrades at an attractive 21 times forward earnings.</p><p><blockquote>得益于如此令人印象深刻的催化剂，Skyworks的营收和利润预计将在本财年起飞也就不足为奇了。对于投资者来说，加入这一潮流还为时不晚，因为这只顶级5G股票的预期市盈率为21倍，颇具吸引力。</blockquote></p><p><b>2. Micron Technology's mobile business is about to step on the gas</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.美光科技移动业务即将踩油门</b></blockquote></p><p>Micron Technology's mobile business unit delivered $1.5 billion in revenue in the first quarter of fiscal 2021, which ended on Dec. 3, 2020. The segment's revenue increased 3% year-over-year, accounting for nearly 26% of total revenue. Though Micron's mobile growth wasn't as spectacular as Skyworks', management pointed out that mobile \"demand remains strong as 5G momentum increases and the mobile market recovers from the impact of the pandemic.\"</p><p><blockquote>美光科技的移动业务部门在截至2020年12月3日的2021财年第一季度实现了15亿美元的收入。该部门的收入同比增长3%，占总收入的近26%。尽管美光的移动增长不如Skyworks那么引人注目，但管理层指出，“随着5G势头的增强以及移动市场从大流行的影响中复苏，移动需求仍然强劲。”</blockquote></p><p>Mobile accounts for 40% of the overall DRAM market, according to a third-party estimate, and manufacturers such as Micron are reportedly allocating more capacity toward the production of mobile DRAM to meet the recent surge in demand. In fact, demand seems to be so strong that mobile DRAM orders placed in the fourth quarter of 2020 are expected to be fulfilled only in the current quarter.</p><p><blockquote>据第三方估计，移动DRAM占整个DRAM市场的40%，据报道，美光等制造商正在分配更多产能用于移动DRAM的生产，以满足最近激增的需求。事实上，需求似乎如此强劲，以至于2020年第四季度下的移动DRAM订单预计只能在本季度完成。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>This tight supply of DRAM should ideally result in improved pricing. Industry data supports that: The spot price of the 8 GB DDR4 DRAM jumped to $3.93 earlier in February, a sharp jump over the spot price of $2.54 seen in August 2020.</p><p><blockquote>理想情况下，这种DRAM供应紧张应该会提高定价。行业数据支持这一点：8 GB DDR4 DRAM的现货价格在2月初跃升至3.93美元，较2020年8月2.54美元的现货价格大幅上涨。</blockquote></p><p>More importantly, mobile DRAM demand should remain strong, as 5G smartphones are beingequipped with more memorythan their 4G predecessors. This bodes well for Micron, as it reportedly controls 20% of the mobile DRAM market. What's more, the company is trying to grab even more of this space withspecialized 5G memory chipsthat help reduce space and power consumption while delivering faster performance.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，移动DRAM需求应该会保持强劲，因为5G智能手机比4G智能手机配备了更多的内存。这对美光来说是个好兆头，因为据报道，它控制着20%的移动DRAM市场。更重要的是，该公司正试图通过专门的5G存储芯片来抢占更多空间，这些芯片有助于减少空间和功耗，同时提供更快的性能。</blockquote></p><p>So a mix of higher pricing and improved shipment volumes will be a tailwind for Micron's mobile business this year. More importantly, the mobile DRAM market presents a long-term growth opportunity for Micron given its solid market share in this space. The global mobile DRAM market's revenue is expected to jump from an estimated $19.5 billion last year to $35.6 billion in 2027, according to a third-party estimate.</p><p><blockquote>因此，更高的定价和更好的出货量将成为美光今年移动业务的推动力。更重要的是，鉴于美光在该领域稳固的市场份额，移动DRAM市场为美光提供了长期增长机会。根据第三方估计，全球移动DRAM市场的收入预计将从去年的195亿美元跃升至2027年的356亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Thrownother catalystssuch as data centers, consoles, and personal computers into the mix, and it isn't too difficult to see why Micron's earnings are expected to grow at a fast clip over the next couple of years.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4432a84bca38fc32d66f505cac1dbae\" tg-width=\"758\" tg-height=\"493\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">MU EPS Estimates for Next Fiscal Yeardata byYCharts</p><p><blockquote>再加上数据中心、游戏机和个人电脑等其他催化剂，就不难理解为什么美光科技的盈利预计将在未来几年快速增长。MU下一财年每股收益预测数据来自YCharts</blockquote></p><p>That's why investors looking to buy a diversified company to take advantage of the growing adoption of 5G smartphones might want to consider Micron Technology, as it has multiple businesses driving its growth. What's more, Micron is trading at less than 22 times forward earnings, so it isn't too late to buy thisgrowth stock-- it has room for more upside thanks to catalysts such as 5G smartphones.</p><p><blockquote>这就是为什么希望收购一家多元化公司以利用5G智能手机日益普及的机会的投资者可能会考虑美光科技，因为该公司拥有多项业务推动其增长。更重要的是，美光科技的预期市盈率不到22倍，因此购买这只成长型股票还为时不晚——得益于5G智能手机等催化剂，它还有更大的上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/2-hot-5g-stocks-to-buy-before-they-explode-2021-03-03\">Nasdaq</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b404fb9c9ce943d48d73d9e4b47bb53c","relate_stocks":{"SWKS":"思佳讯","MU":"美光科技"},"source_url":"https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/2-hot-5g-stocks-to-buy-before-they-explode-2021-03-03","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1186654577","content_text":"The smartphone market turned around in the fourth quarter of 2020 and ended a difficult year on a high. IDC estimates that smartphone shipments jumped 4.3% year-over-year last quarter to 385.9 million units, paving the way for a strong recovery in 2021 after a 5.9% decline in shipments last year.Skyworks Solutions(NASDAQ: $(SWKS)$)andMicron Technology(NASDAQ: $(MU)$)are two stocks that are already taking advantage of this turnaround, as they manufacture chips that go into 5G (fifth-generation) smartphones. Skyworks is witnessingtremendous growthin its mobile business, while Micron is about to join the party as well. These factors have contributed to a strong start on the market this year.These chipmakers are unlikely to lose their impressive stock market momentum in the coming months, as 5G smartphone sales are expected to switch into a higher gear in 2021.Gartnerforecasts that global 5G smartphone shipments could jump to nearly 539 million units this year and account for 35% of the overall market. This would be a huge jump over last year's 5G smartphone shipments of 213 million units, and pave the way for stronger growth in Skyworks and Micron's mobile businesses in 2021.1. Skyworks Solutions' mobile business is on a rollSkyworks' mobile business is its biggest source of revenue, accounting for 78% of its top line last quarter. Skyworks' mobile revenue shot up 81% year-over-year in the first quarter of fiscal 2021, which ended on Jan. 1, 2021, to $1.18 billion.Apple(NASDAQ: AAPL)-- Skyworks' largest customer, generating 56% of total revenue --hit goldwith its latest flagship devices, and that sent the chipmaker's mobile business soaring.The Apple catalyst is here to stay for Skyworks for the remainder of the year, for a couple of reasons. First, Apple is expected to remain atop 5G smartphone supplierin 2021 thanks to a large base of users in an upgrade window. Apple's well-priced iPhone 12 lineup and the possibility ofan entry-level devicesupporting the latest wireless standard could help the smartphone giant record strong shipment gains in 2021.Second, Skyworks is a key Apple supplier. It reportedly supplies as many as eight radio-frequency (RF) modules for the iPhone 12, so Skyworks could see a nice spike in volumes and gain more revenue per iPhone, especially as 5G chips are more expensive than their 4G predecessors.Throw in the fact that Skyworks has started ramping up shipments of its 5G chips to other smartphone OEMs (original equipment manufacturers) such as Vivo, Oppo,Samsung, andXiaomi, and it becomes easier to see why its mobile business could continue clocking high growth rates. And Skyworks' non-mobile business (better known as the broad markets portfolio) is also benefiting from the 5G rollout.The company's broad markets revenue shot up 35% year-over-year during the quarter as demand for its connectivity solutions supporting 5G infrastructure remained strong. Skyworks recently pointed out that it has shipped more than a million of its 5G small-cell power amplifiers, which help telecom carriers boost network speed.The company also says that the 5G small-cell market still has a lot of room to grow. It could be worth $8.3 billion by 2027, clocking a compound annual growth rate of 43% in the coming years.Thanks to such impressive catalysts, it isn't surprising to see that Skyworks' top and bottom lines are expected to take off this fiscal year. And it isn't too late for investors to jump onto this bandwagon, as thistop 5G stocktrades at an attractive 21 times forward earnings.2. Micron Technology's mobile business is about to step on the gasMicron Technology's mobile business unit delivered $1.5 billion in revenue in the first quarter of fiscal 2021, which ended on Dec. 3, 2020. The segment's revenue increased 3% year-over-year, accounting for nearly 26% of total revenue. Though Micron's mobile growth wasn't as spectacular as Skyworks', management pointed out that mobile \"demand remains strong as 5G momentum increases and the mobile market recovers from the impact of the pandemic.\"Mobile accounts for 40% of the overall DRAM market, according to a third-party estimate, and manufacturers such as Micron are reportedly allocating more capacity toward the production of mobile DRAM to meet the recent surge in demand. In fact, demand seems to be so strong that mobile DRAM orders placed in the fourth quarter of 2020 are expected to be fulfilled only in the current quarter.This tight supply of DRAM should ideally result in improved pricing. Industry data supports that: The spot price of the 8 GB DDR4 DRAM jumped to $3.93 earlier in February, a sharp jump over the spot price of $2.54 seen in August 2020.More importantly, mobile DRAM demand should remain strong, as 5G smartphones are beingequipped with more memorythan their 4G predecessors. This bodes well for Micron, as it reportedly controls 20% of the mobile DRAM market. What's more, the company is trying to grab even more of this space withspecialized 5G memory chipsthat help reduce space and power consumption while delivering faster performance.So a mix of higher pricing and improved shipment volumes will be a tailwind for Micron's mobile business this year. More importantly, the mobile DRAM market presents a long-term growth opportunity for Micron given its solid market share in this space. The global mobile DRAM market's revenue is expected to jump from an estimated $19.5 billion last year to $35.6 billion in 2027, according to a third-party estimate.Thrownother catalystssuch as data centers, consoles, and personal computers into the mix, and it isn't too difficult to see why Micron's earnings are expected to grow at a fast clip over the next couple of years.MU EPS Estimates for Next Fiscal Yeardata byYChartsThat's why investors looking to buy a diversified company to take advantage of the growing adoption of 5G smartphones might want to consider Micron Technology, as it has multiple businesses driving its growth. What's more, Micron is trading at less than 22 times forward earnings, so it isn't too late to buy thisgrowth stock-- it has room for more upside thanks to catalysts such as 5G smartphones.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SWKS":0.9,"MU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":691,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":343960481,"gmtCreate":1617669898743,"gmtModify":1634297225147,"author":{"id":"3573788390439161","authorId":"3573788390439161","name":"30ad6cc","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573788390439161","idStr":"3573788390439161"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please help to like and share thanks","listText":"Please help to like and share thanks","text":"Please help to like and share thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/343960481","repostId":"1153914073","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":379,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":379630774,"gmtCreate":1618724573198,"gmtModify":1634291233320,"author":{"id":"3573788390439161","authorId":"3573788390439161","name":"30ad6cc","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573788390439161","idStr":"3573788390439161"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please help to like, thanks","listText":"Please help to like, thanks","text":"Please help to like, thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/379630774","repostId":"1175692875","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175692875","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618582708,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1175692875?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-16 22:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"$544 Billion In Options Expire Today: Here's What Will Move<blockquote>5440亿美元期权今天到期：以下是将发生的变化</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175692875","media":"zerohedge","summary":"While it's not quad (or even triple) witching day, today's a whole lot of weekly options will expire","content":"<p>While it's not quad (or even triple) witching day, today's a whole lot of weekly options will expire, may of which will be worthless, and others will be providing a supporting \"pin\" to underlying prices. It's why, even though we are enjoying a beautiful spring week, Goldman notes that single stock options trading activity is elevated relative to historical levels. To wit, daily options volumes are up 70% in April, up from YTD lows of $2.4bn on 30-Mar.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这不是四（甚至三）巫术日，但今天的大量每周期权将到期，其中可能一文不值，其他期权将为基础价格提供支持“引脚”。这就是为什么，尽管我们正在享受一个美丽的春季周，高盛指出，单一股票期权交易活动相对于历史水平有所上升。也就是说，4月份每日期权交易量增长了70%，高于3月30日年初至今24亿美元的低点。</blockquote></p><p><b>In total, across single stocks, $544BN of options are set to expiry today, including $305BN calls.</b>As such, today’s expiry could be important for stocks with large open interest in at-the-money(ATM) options, as market makers delta-hedging their unusually large options portfolios will be active. This flow is likely to dampen volatility in some names while exacerbating stock price moves in others.</p><p><blockquote><b>总体而言，单个股票中有5440亿美元的期权将于今天到期，其中包括3050亿美元的评级。</b>因此，今天的到期对于平值（ATM）期权持有大量未平仓合约的股票可能很重要，因为做市商对其异常大的期权投资组合进行delta对冲将会很活跃。这种流动可能会抑制某些股票的波动，同时加剧其他股票的股价波动。</blockquote></p><p>How to trade this?</p><p><blockquote>这个怎么交易？</blockquote></p><p>As Goldman's Vishal Vivek writes, at major expirations, options traders track situations where<b>a large amount of open interest is set to expire.</b>In situations where there is a significant amount of expiring open interest in at-the-money strikes (strike prices at or very near the current stockprice), delta-hedging activity can impact the underlying stock’s trading that day. If market makers or other options traders who delta-hedge their positions are net long ATM options, expiration-related flow could have the effect of dampening stock price movements, causing the stock price to settle near the strike with large open interest. This situation is often referred to as a “pin” and can be an ideal situation fora large investor trying to enter/exit a stock position. Alternatively, if delta-hedgers are net short ATM options (have a “negative gamma” position), their hedging activity could exacerbate stock price moves.</p><p><blockquote>正如高盛的维沙尔·维韦克（Vishal Vivek）所写，在重大到期时，期权交易者会跟踪以下情况：<b>大量未平仓合约即将到期。</b>在平价执行（执行价格等于或非常接近当前股价）中存在大量到期未平仓合约的情况下，delta对冲活动可能会影响标的股票当天的交易。如果做市商或其他对其头寸进行delta对冲的期权交易者是净多头ATM期权，则与到期相关的流量可能会产生抑制股价走势的效果，导致股价以大量未平仓合约在行权附近结算。这种情况通常被称为“pin”，对于试图进入/退出股票头寸的大型投资者来说是理想的情况。或者，如果delta对冲者是ATM期权的净空头（具有“负伽马”头寸），他们的对冲活动可能会加剧股价波动。</blockquote></p><p>What that means it expiration-related trades may cause trading activity to aggressively pick up for stocks with a significant amount of ATM open interest.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着与到期相关的交易可能会导致具有大量ATM未平仓合约的股票的交易活动大幅回升。</blockquote></p><p>So to help traders looking to hop on for daytrading opportunities, here is a table identifying possible focus stocks with large ATM open interest expiring today, which is compared to the average daily volume of the underlying stocks. As Goldman puts it, \"<i>expiration-related activity is likely to have more of an impact if the open interest represents a significant percentage of the stock’s volume.\"</i></p><p><blockquote>因此，为了帮助寻求日内交易机会的交易者，这里有一个表格，列出了今天到期的ATM未平仓合约较大的可能焦点股票，并与标的股票的日均交易量进行了比较。正如高盛所说，“<i>如果未平仓合约占股票交易量的很大一部分，那么与到期相关的活动可能会产生更大的影响。”</i></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dac61cb87c2f2700d8a0e8e64324f81\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"638\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Finally, for what it's worth, this morning our friends at SpotGamma write that this has been a rather strange OPEX cycle, \"with a consistent almost mechanical bid pushing markets higher. We’ve not seen the Call Wall “breached” this many times before, but there are other aberrations that we’ve mentioned in previous notes – like net put sales. We’ve got some theories on this we are posting in a longer form piece.\"</p><p><blockquote>最后，值得一提的是，今天早上我们在SpotGamma的朋友写道，这是一个相当奇怪的运营支出周期，“持续的几乎机械的出价推动市场走高。我们以前从未见过看涨期权墙“突破”过很多次，但我们在之前的笔记中提到过其他异常现象，例如净看跌期权销售。我们对此有一些理论，我们将在一篇更长的文章中发布。”</blockquote></p><p>According to SG, because implied volatility has now compressed (ie VIX at new lows) there is now more potential for “long term” volatility. Recall how as of late any sharp, violent drop in markets was bought so quickly (see chart below).<b>These bursts lower coincided with record VIX spikes, but a reflective snap-back bid would bring a market recovery of equal force as the VIX&nbsp; (i.e. implied volatility) reversed.</b></p><p><blockquote>根据SG的说法，由于隐含波动率现在已经压缩（即VIX处于新低），现在“长期”波动的潜力更大。回想一下最近市场的任何剧烈下跌都是如何被如此迅速地买入的（见下图）。<b>这些大幅走低与创纪录的VIX飙升同时发生，但随着VIX（即隐含波动率）的逆转，反射性的snap回调将带来同等力度的市场复苏。</b></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae7a60d873792b825bdda669cafa0ed3\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">And one other curious observation from SpotGamma:</p><p><blockquote>SpotGamma的另一个奇怪观察：</blockquote></p><p>When implied volatility is very high, its very sensitive to market moves and also signaling that markets are expecting more large moves ahead. As soon as markets would pause or catch a support level, that implied volatility would quickly reverse lower. <b>We often think of this analogy that if a shark stops swimming, it sinks ( partially true!). If the market stops dropping then Implied volatility sinks.</b>With this, as we often talk about, lower implied volatility (ie lower VIX) signals market makers have to buy back short hedges which fuels rallies. SG's conclusion: this current level of lower implied volatility now gives the market more downside firepower.&nbsp; Starting with a lower implied volatility “slows down” that responsive “snap-back” buying mechanism.&nbsp; Additionally, gamma is higher when IV is lower so gamma flips may have more juice.</p><p><blockquote>当隐含波动率非常高时，它对市场走势非常敏感，也表明市场预计未来会有更大的波动。一旦市场暂停或抓住支撑位，隐含波动率就会迅速反转走低。<b>我们经常想到这样一个类比，如果鲨鱼停止游泳，它就会下沉（部分正确！）.如果市场停止下跌，那么隐含波动率就会下降。</b>正如我们经常谈论的那样，较低的隐含波动率（即较低的VIX）表明做市商必须回购空头对冲，从而推动反弹。SG的结论是：目前较低的隐含波动率水平给了市场更多的下行火力。从较低的隐含波动率开始会“减缓”反应性的“snap回”购买机制。此外，当IV较低时，伽马较高，因此伽马翻转可能有更多的果汁。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>$544 Billion In Options Expire Today: Here's What Will Move<blockquote>5440亿美元期权今天到期：以下是将发生的变化</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n$544 Billion In Options Expire Today: Here's What Will Move<blockquote>5440亿美元期权今天到期：以下是将发生的变化</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-16 22:18</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>While it's not quad (or even triple) witching day, today's a whole lot of weekly options will expire, may of which will be worthless, and others will be providing a supporting \"pin\" to underlying prices. It's why, even though we are enjoying a beautiful spring week, Goldman notes that single stock options trading activity is elevated relative to historical levels. To wit, daily options volumes are up 70% in April, up from YTD lows of $2.4bn on 30-Mar.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这不是四（甚至三）巫术日，但今天的大量每周期权将到期，其中可能一文不值，其他期权将为基础价格提供支持“引脚”。这就是为什么，尽管我们正在享受一个美丽的春季周，高盛指出，单一股票期权交易活动相对于历史水平有所上升。也就是说，4月份每日期权交易量增长了70%，高于3月30日年初至今24亿美元的低点。</blockquote></p><p><b>In total, across single stocks, $544BN of options are set to expiry today, including $305BN calls.</b>As such, today’s expiry could be important for stocks with large open interest in at-the-money(ATM) options, as market makers delta-hedging their unusually large options portfolios will be active. This flow is likely to dampen volatility in some names while exacerbating stock price moves in others.</p><p><blockquote><b>总体而言，单个股票中有5440亿美元的期权将于今天到期，其中包括3050亿美元的评级。</b>因此，今天的到期对于平值（ATM）期权持有大量未平仓合约的股票可能很重要，因为做市商对其异常大的期权投资组合进行delta对冲将会很活跃。这种流动可能会抑制某些股票的波动，同时加剧其他股票的股价波动。</blockquote></p><p>How to trade this?</p><p><blockquote>这个怎么交易？</blockquote></p><p>As Goldman's Vishal Vivek writes, at major expirations, options traders track situations where<b>a large amount of open interest is set to expire.</b>In situations where there is a significant amount of expiring open interest in at-the-money strikes (strike prices at or very near the current stockprice), delta-hedging activity can impact the underlying stock’s trading that day. If market makers or other options traders who delta-hedge their positions are net long ATM options, expiration-related flow could have the effect of dampening stock price movements, causing the stock price to settle near the strike with large open interest. This situation is often referred to as a “pin” and can be an ideal situation fora large investor trying to enter/exit a stock position. Alternatively, if delta-hedgers are net short ATM options (have a “negative gamma” position), their hedging activity could exacerbate stock price moves.</p><p><blockquote>正如高盛的维沙尔·维韦克（Vishal Vivek）所写，在重大到期时，期权交易者会跟踪以下情况：<b>大量未平仓合约即将到期。</b>在平价执行（执行价格等于或非常接近当前股价）中存在大量到期未平仓合约的情况下，delta对冲活动可能会影响标的股票当天的交易。如果做市商或其他对其头寸进行delta对冲的期权交易者是净多头ATM期权，则与到期相关的流量可能会产生抑制股价走势的效果，导致股价以大量未平仓合约在行权附近结算。这种情况通常被称为“pin”，对于试图进入/退出股票头寸的大型投资者来说是理想的情况。或者，如果delta对冲者是ATM期权的净空头（具有“负伽马”头寸），他们的对冲活动可能会加剧股价波动。</blockquote></p><p>What that means it expiration-related trades may cause trading activity to aggressively pick up for stocks with a significant amount of ATM open interest.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着与到期相关的交易可能会导致具有大量ATM未平仓合约的股票的交易活动大幅回升。</blockquote></p><p>So to help traders looking to hop on for daytrading opportunities, here is a table identifying possible focus stocks with large ATM open interest expiring today, which is compared to the average daily volume of the underlying stocks. As Goldman puts it, \"<i>expiration-related activity is likely to have more of an impact if the open interest represents a significant percentage of the stock’s volume.\"</i></p><p><blockquote>因此，为了帮助寻求日内交易机会的交易者，这里有一个表格，列出了今天到期的ATM未平仓合约较大的可能焦点股票，并与标的股票的日均交易量进行了比较。正如高盛所说，“<i>如果未平仓合约占股票交易量的很大一部分，那么与到期相关的活动可能会产生更大的影响。”</i></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dac61cb87c2f2700d8a0e8e64324f81\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"638\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Finally, for what it's worth, this morning our friends at SpotGamma write that this has been a rather strange OPEX cycle, \"with a consistent almost mechanical bid pushing markets higher. We’ve not seen the Call Wall “breached” this many times before, but there are other aberrations that we’ve mentioned in previous notes – like net put sales. We’ve got some theories on this we are posting in a longer form piece.\"</p><p><blockquote>最后，值得一提的是，今天早上我们在SpotGamma的朋友写道，这是一个相当奇怪的运营支出周期，“持续的几乎机械的出价推动市场走高。我们以前从未见过看涨期权墙“突破”过很多次，但我们在之前的笔记中提到过其他异常现象，例如净看跌期权销售。我们对此有一些理论，我们将在一篇更长的文章中发布。”</blockquote></p><p>According to SG, because implied volatility has now compressed (ie VIX at new lows) there is now more potential for “long term” volatility. Recall how as of late any sharp, violent drop in markets was bought so quickly (see chart below).<b>These bursts lower coincided with record VIX spikes, but a reflective snap-back bid would bring a market recovery of equal force as the VIX&nbsp; (i.e. implied volatility) reversed.</b></p><p><blockquote>根据SG的说法，由于隐含波动率现在已经压缩（即VIX处于新低），现在“长期”波动的潜力更大。回想一下最近市场的任何剧烈下跌都是如何被如此迅速地买入的（见下图）。<b>这些大幅走低与创纪录的VIX飙升同时发生，但随着VIX（即隐含波动率）的逆转，反射性的snap回调将带来同等力度的市场复苏。</b></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae7a60d873792b825bdda669cafa0ed3\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">And one other curious observation from SpotGamma:</p><p><blockquote>SpotGamma的另一个奇怪观察：</blockquote></p><p>When implied volatility is very high, its very sensitive to market moves and also signaling that markets are expecting more large moves ahead. As soon as markets would pause or catch a support level, that implied volatility would quickly reverse lower. <b>We often think of this analogy that if a shark stops swimming, it sinks ( partially true!). If the market stops dropping then Implied volatility sinks.</b>With this, as we often talk about, lower implied volatility (ie lower VIX) signals market makers have to buy back short hedges which fuels rallies. SG's conclusion: this current level of lower implied volatility now gives the market more downside firepower.&nbsp; Starting with a lower implied volatility “slows down” that responsive “snap-back” buying mechanism.&nbsp; Additionally, gamma is higher when IV is lower so gamma flips may have more juice.</p><p><blockquote>当隐含波动率非常高时，它对市场走势非常敏感，也表明市场预计未来会有更大的波动。一旦市场暂停或抓住支撑位，隐含波动率就会迅速反转走低。<b>我们经常想到这样一个类比，如果鲨鱼停止游泳，它就会下沉（部分正确！）.如果市场停止下跌，那么隐含波动率就会下降。</b>正如我们经常谈论的那样，较低的隐含波动率（即较低的VIX）表明做市商必须回购空头对冲，从而推动反弹。SG的结论是：目前较低的隐含波动率水平给了市场更多的下行火力。从较低的隐含波动率开始会“减缓”反应性的“snap回”购买机制。此外，当IV较低时，伽马较高，因此伽马翻转可能有更多的果汁。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/544-billion-options-expire-today-heres-what-will-move?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/544-billion-options-expire-today-heres-what-will-move?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175692875","content_text":"While it's not quad (or even triple) witching day, today's a whole lot of weekly options will expire, may of which will be worthless, and others will be providing a supporting \"pin\" to underlying prices. It's why, even though we are enjoying a beautiful spring week, Goldman notes that single stock options trading activity is elevated relative to historical levels. To wit, daily options volumes are up 70% in April, up from YTD lows of $2.4bn on 30-Mar.In total, across single stocks, $544BN of options are set to expiry today, including $305BN calls.As such, today’s expiry could be important for stocks with large open interest in at-the-money(ATM) options, as market makers delta-hedging their unusually large options portfolios will be active. This flow is likely to dampen volatility in some names while exacerbating stock price moves in others.How to trade this?As Goldman's Vishal Vivek writes, at major expirations, options traders track situations wherea large amount of open interest is set to expire.In situations where there is a significant amount of expiring open interest in at-the-money strikes (strike prices at or very near the current stockprice), delta-hedging activity can impact the underlying stock’s trading that day. If market makers or other options traders who delta-hedge their positions are net long ATM options, expiration-related flow could have the effect of dampening stock price movements, causing the stock price to settle near the strike with large open interest. This situation is often referred to as a “pin” and can be an ideal situation fora large investor trying to enter/exit a stock position. Alternatively, if delta-hedgers are net short ATM options (have a “negative gamma” position), their hedging activity could exacerbate stock price moves.What that means it expiration-related trades may cause trading activity to aggressively pick up for stocks with a significant amount of ATM open interest.So to help traders looking to hop on for daytrading opportunities, here is a table identifying possible focus stocks with large ATM open interest expiring today, which is compared to the average daily volume of the underlying stocks. As Goldman puts it, \"expiration-related activity is likely to have more of an impact if the open interest represents a significant percentage of the stock’s volume.\"Finally, for what it's worth, this morning our friends at SpotGamma write that this has been a rather strange OPEX cycle, \"with a consistent almost mechanical bid pushing markets higher. We’ve not seen the Call Wall “breached” this many times before, but there are other aberrations that we’ve mentioned in previous notes – like net put sales. We’ve got some theories on this we are posting in a longer form piece.\"According to SG, because implied volatility has now compressed (ie VIX at new lows) there is now more potential for “long term” volatility. Recall how as of late any sharp, violent drop in markets was bought so quickly (see chart below).These bursts lower coincided with record VIX spikes, but a reflective snap-back bid would bring a market recovery of equal force as the VIX  (i.e. implied volatility) reversed.And one other curious observation from SpotGamma:When implied volatility is very high, its very sensitive to market moves and also signaling that markets are expecting more large moves ahead. As soon as markets would pause or catch a support level, that implied volatility would quickly reverse lower. We often think of this analogy that if a shark stops swimming, it sinks ( partially true!). If the market stops dropping then Implied volatility sinks.With this, as we often talk about, lower implied volatility (ie lower VIX) signals market makers have to buy back short hedges which fuels rallies. SG's conclusion: this current level of lower implied volatility now gives the market more downside firepower.  Starting with a lower implied volatility “slows down” that responsive “snap-back” buying mechanism.  Additionally, gamma is higher when IV is lower so gamma flips may have more juice.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":475,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":109269179,"gmtCreate":1619700573691,"gmtModify":1634210626258,"author":{"id":"3573788390439161","authorId":"3573788390439161","name":"30ad6cc","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573788390439161","idStr":"3573788390439161"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Amazing news","listText":"Amazing news","text":"Amazing news","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/109269179","repostId":"1183966356","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1183966356","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1619665696,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1183966356?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-29 11:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"NIO Q1 2021 Earnings Report Preview: What to Look For<blockquote>蔚来2021年第一季度收益报告预览：寻找什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183966356","media":"InvestoPedia","summary":"Analysts estimate earnings per ADS of -0.72 yuan vs. -1.66 yuan in Q1 FY 2020.Revenue is expected to soar on expanding vehicle sales.NIO Inc. , like many other automakers, was forced to halt production this year due to the global semiconductor shortage. Semiconductor chips, widely used in smartphones, computers, and other electronic devices, are especially important to NIO, a maker of premium electric vehicles . NIO's production stoppage in late March had little impact on the company's record ve","content":"<p>Focus on NIO vehicle deliveries</p><p><blockquote>聚焦蔚来汽车交付</blockquote></p><p> <b>KEY TAKEAWAYS</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关键要点</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Analysts estimate earnings per ADS of -0.72 yuan vs. -1.66 yuan in Q1 FY 2020.</li>  <li>Vehicle deliveries, already announced, rose dramatically YOY.</li>  <li>Revenue is expected to soar on expanding vehicle sales.</li> </ul> NIO Inc. (NIO), like many other automakers, was forced to halt production this year due to the global semiconductor shortage. Semiconductor chips, widely used in smartphones, computers, and other electronic devices, are especially important to NIO, a maker of premium electric vehicles (EVs). NIO's production stoppage in late March had little impact on the company's record vehicle deliveries in Q1, but it could affect future production numbers.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>分析师预计2020财年第一季度每股美国存托凭证收益为-0.72元，而2020财年第一季度为-1.66元。</li><li>已经宣布的车辆交付量同比大幅增长。</li><li>随着汽车销量的扩大，收入预计将飙升。</li></ul>蔚来（蔚来）和许多其他汽车制造商一样，由于全球半导体短缺，今年被迫停产。广泛用于智能手机、计算机和其他电子设备的半导体芯片对于高端电动汽车(EV)制造商蔚来尤为重要。蔚来3月下旬的停产对该公司第一季度创纪录的汽车交付量影响不大，但可能会影响未来的产量。</blockquote></p><p> Investors will focus on how these forces affect NIO's immediate results, as well as its financial outlook, when the company reports earnings on April 29, 2021 for Q1 FY 2021.Analysts are expecting the company's loss per American depositary share (ADS) to narrow significantly as revenue expands at a rapid pace.</p><p><blockquote>当蔚来于2021年4月29日公布2021财年第一季度收益时，投资者将关注这些力量如何影响该公司的近期业绩及其财务前景。分析师预计该公司每股美国存托股(ADS)亏损将随着收入快速扩张而显着收窄。</blockquote></p><p> Vehicle deliveries are another key metric investors watch in order to gauge the company's productive capacity. NIO already reported vehicle deliveries for the first quarter earlier this month, achieving a new quarterly record despite total deliveries coming in slightly below expectations.</p><p><blockquote>车辆交付量是投资者关注的另一个关键指标，以衡量公司的生产能力。蔚来本月早些时候已经公布了第一季度的汽车交付量，尽管总交付量略低于预期，但仍创下了新的季度纪录。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of NIO have dramatically outperformed the broader market over the past year. But after reaching all-time highs earlier this year, the stock has fallen considerably and has been trading mostly sideways since early March. NIO's shares have provided investors with an astronomic total return of 1,171.9% over the past year, well above the S&amp;P 500's total return of 45.5%.</p><p><blockquote>过去一年，蔚来的股价大幅跑赢大盘。但在今年早些时候达到历史高点后，该股大幅下跌，自3月初以来一直横盘整理。过去一年，蔚来的股票为投资者带来了1,171.9%的天文数字总回报率，远高于标普500 45.5%的总回报率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a11e1a915810ccbc7f07ec2adf16865b\" tg-width=\"3004\" tg-height=\"1798\"><span>Source: TradingView.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO Earnings History</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来盈利历史</b></blockquote></p><p> The stock, which had been gathering downward momentum after peaking around mid-February, plunged following NIO's&nbsp;Q4 FY 2020 earnings&nbsp;report released at the beginning of March. The company reported a much larger loss per ADS than analysts expected and revenue also missed estimates. However, NIO's loss narrowed considerably compared to the year-ago quarter and revenue was still up 133.2%.The company was optimistic about its performance, noting that its&nbsp;gross margin&nbsp;rose to 17.2% compared to negative 8.9% in the year-ago quarter.</p><p><blockquote>该股在2月中旬左右见顶后一直在积聚下行动力，在蔚来3月初发布2020财年第四季度收益报告后暴跌。该公司报告的每股美国存托凭证亏损远高于分析师预期，收入也低于预期。不过，蔚来的亏损较去年同期大幅收窄，营收仍增长133.2%。该公司对其业绩持乐观态度，指出其毛利率升至17.2%，而去年同期为负8.9%。</blockquote></p><p> In Q3 FY 2020, NIO posted a loss per ADS of 0.98 yuan ($0.15 as of the CNY/USD exchange rate on April 27, 2021).It was the smallest loss in at least 11 quarters. Revenue rose 146.4%, maintaining the pace of growth achieved in the second quarter.NIO said it delivered a record number of vehicles and saw improvements in its average selling price. The company also said that it was the second straight quarter of positive cash flow from operating activities.</p><p><blockquote>2020财年第三季度，蔚来每股美国存托凭证亏损0.98元人民币（按2021年4月27日人民币/美元汇率计算为0.15美元）。这是至少11个季度以来的最小亏损。收入增长146.4%，保持了第二季度的增长速度。蔚来表示，其交付的车辆数量创历史新高，平均售价也有所提高。该公司还表示，这是连续第二个季度经营活动现金流为正。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts expect continued improvement in NIO's financial results in Q1 FY 2021. While NIO is still expected to post another loss per ADS, it is estimated to be the lowest in at least 14 quarters. Revenue for the quarter is forecast to rise 446.1%, which would be the fastest pace since Q2 FY 2019. For full-year FY 2021, analysts are currently expecting NIO to achieve a loss of 2.72 yuan per ADS, which would be the smallest loss in at least five years. Revenue is expected to rise 109.7%, a faster pace than in each of the last two years.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计蔚来2021财年第一季度的财务业绩将持续改善。虽然蔚来预计仍将再次出现每股美国存托凭证亏损，但估计将是至少14个季度以来的最低水平。该季度收入预计将增长446.1%，这将是自2019财年第二季度以来的最快增速。对于2021财年全年，分析师目前预计蔚来将实现每股ADS亏损2.72元，这将是至少五年来的最小亏损。收入预计将增长109.7%，增速快于过去两年的每年。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d412a9c0aea28621f713f5afbfba444c\" tg-width=\"885\" tg-height=\"352\"><span>Source: Visible Alpha; NIO Inc.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：可见阿尔法；蔚来</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Key Metric</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关键指标</b></blockquote></p><p> As mentioned above, investors are also watching the number of vehicles NIO delivers each quarter. NIO generates some revenue from various services it provides, but the majority of revenue is derived from vehicle sales.Currently, the company makes deliveries of three types of vehicles: the ES8, the company's 6-seater and 7-seater flagship premium smart electric SUV; the ES6, the company’s 5-seater high-performance premium smart electric SUV; and the EC6, the company’s 5-seater premium electric coupe SUV.The number of vehicle deliveries provides an indication of the demand for NIO's vehicles as well as the company's ability to scale production.</p><p><blockquote>如上所述，投资者也在关注蔚来每个季度交付的汽车数量。蔚来从其提供的各种服务中获得一些收入，但大部分收入来自汽车销售。目前，该公司交付三种类型的车辆：ES8，该公司的6座和7座旗舰高端智能电动SUV；该公司的5座高性能高级智能电动SUV ES6；以及该公司的5座高级电动轿跑车SUV EC6。汽车交付数量表明了对蔚来汽车的需求以及该公司扩大生产的能力。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> NIO has significantly ramped up its production over the past few years. The company delivered 11,350 vehicles in FY 2018. In FY 2020, it had nearly quadrupled that figure, delivering 43,730 vehicles. Despite a slowdown in Q1 FY 2020 amid the COVID-19 pandemic, NIO quickly made up for the Q1 drop in deliveries with a 190.8% year-over-year increase in Q2 FY 2020. Total vehicle delivery growth decelerated to 154.3% in Q3 and then to 111.0% in Q4. However, vehicle deliveries rose 423.0% in Q1 FY 2021, hitting a new quarterly record, as mentioned above. For full-year FY 2021, analysts are forecasting NIO to deliver 88,280 vehicles, which would be more than double last year's total deliveries. However, NIO warned investors in early March that the global chip shortage is likely to cut its production capacity, at least in the second quarter.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来在过去几年中大幅提高了产量。该公司在2018财年交付了11,350辆汽车。2020财年，这一数字几乎翻了两番，交付了43,730辆汽车。尽管2020财年第一季度因COVID-19大流行而放缓，但蔚来很快弥补了第一季度交付量的下降，2020财年第二季度同比增长190.8%。第三季度汽车交付总量增速放缓至154.3%，第四季度放缓至111.0%。然而，如上所述，2021财年第一季度的车辆交付量增长了423.0%，创下了新的季度纪录。对于2021财年全年，分析师预测蔚来将交付88,280辆汽车，这将是去年总交付量的两倍多。然而，蔚来在3月初警告投资者，全球芯片短缺很可能会削减其产能，至少在第二季度是这样。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606203311635","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NIO Q1 2021 Earnings Report Preview: What to Look For<blockquote>蔚来2021年第一季度收益报告预览：寻找什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNIO Q1 2021 Earnings Report Preview: What to Look For<blockquote>蔚来2021年第一季度收益报告预览：寻找什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">InvestoPedia</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-29 11:08</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Focus on NIO vehicle deliveries</p><p><blockquote>聚焦蔚来汽车交付</blockquote></p><p> <b>KEY TAKEAWAYS</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关键要点</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Analysts estimate earnings per ADS of -0.72 yuan vs. -1.66 yuan in Q1 FY 2020.</li>  <li>Vehicle deliveries, already announced, rose dramatically YOY.</li>  <li>Revenue is expected to soar on expanding vehicle sales.</li> </ul> NIO Inc. (NIO), like many other automakers, was forced to halt production this year due to the global semiconductor shortage. Semiconductor chips, widely used in smartphones, computers, and other electronic devices, are especially important to NIO, a maker of premium electric vehicles (EVs). NIO's production stoppage in late March had little impact on the company's record vehicle deliveries in Q1, but it could affect future production numbers.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>分析师预计2020财年第一季度每股美国存托凭证收益为-0.72元，而2020财年第一季度为-1.66元。</li><li>已经宣布的车辆交付量同比大幅增长。</li><li>随着汽车销量的扩大，收入预计将飙升。</li></ul>蔚来（蔚来）和许多其他汽车制造商一样，由于全球半导体短缺，今年被迫停产。广泛用于智能手机、计算机和其他电子设备的半导体芯片对于高端电动汽车(EV)制造商蔚来尤为重要。蔚来3月下旬的停产对该公司第一季度创纪录的汽车交付量影响不大，但可能会影响未来的产量。</blockquote></p><p> Investors will focus on how these forces affect NIO's immediate results, as well as its financial outlook, when the company reports earnings on April 29, 2021 for Q1 FY 2021.Analysts are expecting the company's loss per American depositary share (ADS) to narrow significantly as revenue expands at a rapid pace.</p><p><blockquote>当蔚来于2021年4月29日公布2021财年第一季度收益时，投资者将关注这些力量如何影响该公司的近期业绩及其财务前景。分析师预计该公司每股美国存托股(ADS)亏损将随着收入快速扩张而显着收窄。</blockquote></p><p> Vehicle deliveries are another key metric investors watch in order to gauge the company's productive capacity. NIO already reported vehicle deliveries for the first quarter earlier this month, achieving a new quarterly record despite total deliveries coming in slightly below expectations.</p><p><blockquote>车辆交付量是投资者关注的另一个关键指标，以衡量公司的生产能力。蔚来本月早些时候已经公布了第一季度的汽车交付量，尽管总交付量略低于预期，但仍创下了新的季度纪录。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of NIO have dramatically outperformed the broader market over the past year. But after reaching all-time highs earlier this year, the stock has fallen considerably and has been trading mostly sideways since early March. NIO's shares have provided investors with an astronomic total return of 1,171.9% over the past year, well above the S&amp;P 500's total return of 45.5%.</p><p><blockquote>过去一年，蔚来的股价大幅跑赢大盘。但在今年早些时候达到历史高点后，该股大幅下跌，自3月初以来一直横盘整理。过去一年，蔚来的股票为投资者带来了1,171.9%的天文数字总回报率，远高于标普500 45.5%的总回报率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a11e1a915810ccbc7f07ec2adf16865b\" tg-width=\"3004\" tg-height=\"1798\"><span>Source: TradingView.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO Earnings History</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来盈利历史</b></blockquote></p><p> The stock, which had been gathering downward momentum after peaking around mid-February, plunged following NIO's&nbsp;Q4 FY 2020 earnings&nbsp;report released at the beginning of March. The company reported a much larger loss per ADS than analysts expected and revenue also missed estimates. However, NIO's loss narrowed considerably compared to the year-ago quarter and revenue was still up 133.2%.The company was optimistic about its performance, noting that its&nbsp;gross margin&nbsp;rose to 17.2% compared to negative 8.9% in the year-ago quarter.</p><p><blockquote>该股在2月中旬左右见顶后一直在积聚下行动力，在蔚来3月初发布2020财年第四季度收益报告后暴跌。该公司报告的每股美国存托凭证亏损远高于分析师预期，收入也低于预期。不过，蔚来的亏损较去年同期大幅收窄，营收仍增长133.2%。该公司对其业绩持乐观态度，指出其毛利率升至17.2%，而去年同期为负8.9%。</blockquote></p><p> In Q3 FY 2020, NIO posted a loss per ADS of 0.98 yuan ($0.15 as of the CNY/USD exchange rate on April 27, 2021).It was the smallest loss in at least 11 quarters. Revenue rose 146.4%, maintaining the pace of growth achieved in the second quarter.NIO said it delivered a record number of vehicles and saw improvements in its average selling price. The company also said that it was the second straight quarter of positive cash flow from operating activities.</p><p><blockquote>2020财年第三季度，蔚来每股美国存托凭证亏损0.98元人民币（按2021年4月27日人民币/美元汇率计算为0.15美元）。这是至少11个季度以来的最小亏损。收入增长146.4%，保持了第二季度的增长速度。蔚来表示，其交付的车辆数量创历史新高，平均售价也有所提高。该公司还表示，这是连续第二个季度经营活动现金流为正。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts expect continued improvement in NIO's financial results in Q1 FY 2021. While NIO is still expected to post another loss per ADS, it is estimated to be the lowest in at least 14 quarters. Revenue for the quarter is forecast to rise 446.1%, which would be the fastest pace since Q2 FY 2019. For full-year FY 2021, analysts are currently expecting NIO to achieve a loss of 2.72 yuan per ADS, which would be the smallest loss in at least five years. Revenue is expected to rise 109.7%, a faster pace than in each of the last two years.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计蔚来2021财年第一季度的财务业绩将持续改善。虽然蔚来预计仍将再次出现每股美国存托凭证亏损，但估计将是至少14个季度以来的最低水平。该季度收入预计将增长446.1%，这将是自2019财年第二季度以来的最快增速。对于2021财年全年，分析师目前预计蔚来将实现每股ADS亏损2.72元，这将是至少五年来的最小亏损。收入预计将增长109.7%，增速快于过去两年的每年。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d412a9c0aea28621f713f5afbfba444c\" tg-width=\"885\" tg-height=\"352\"><span>Source: Visible Alpha; NIO Inc.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：可见阿尔法；蔚来</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Key Metric</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关键指标</b></blockquote></p><p> As mentioned above, investors are also watching the number of vehicles NIO delivers each quarter. NIO generates some revenue from various services it provides, but the majority of revenue is derived from vehicle sales.Currently, the company makes deliveries of three types of vehicles: the ES8, the company's 6-seater and 7-seater flagship premium smart electric SUV; the ES6, the company’s 5-seater high-performance premium smart electric SUV; and the EC6, the company’s 5-seater premium electric coupe SUV.The number of vehicle deliveries provides an indication of the demand for NIO's vehicles as well as the company's ability to scale production.</p><p><blockquote>如上所述，投资者也在关注蔚来每个季度交付的汽车数量。蔚来从其提供的各种服务中获得一些收入，但大部分收入来自汽车销售。目前，该公司交付三种类型的车辆：ES8，该公司的6座和7座旗舰高端智能电动SUV；该公司的5座高性能高级智能电动SUV ES6；以及该公司的5座高级电动轿跑车SUV EC6。汽车交付数量表明了对蔚来汽车的需求以及该公司扩大生产的能力。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> NIO has significantly ramped up its production over the past few years. The company delivered 11,350 vehicles in FY 2018. In FY 2020, it had nearly quadrupled that figure, delivering 43,730 vehicles. Despite a slowdown in Q1 FY 2020 amid the COVID-19 pandemic, NIO quickly made up for the Q1 drop in deliveries with a 190.8% year-over-year increase in Q2 FY 2020. Total vehicle delivery growth decelerated to 154.3% in Q3 and then to 111.0% in Q4. However, vehicle deliveries rose 423.0% in Q1 FY 2021, hitting a new quarterly record, as mentioned above. For full-year FY 2021, analysts are forecasting NIO to deliver 88,280 vehicles, which would be more than double last year's total deliveries. However, NIO warned investors in early March that the global chip shortage is likely to cut its production capacity, at least in the second quarter.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来在过去几年中大幅提高了产量。该公司在2018财年交付了11,350辆汽车。2020财年，这一数字几乎翻了两番，交付了43,730辆汽车。尽管2020财年第一季度因COVID-19大流行而放缓，但蔚来很快弥补了第一季度交付量的下降，2020财年第二季度同比增长190.8%。第三季度汽车交付总量增速放缓至154.3%，第四季度放缓至111.0%。然而，如上所述，2021财年第一季度的车辆交付量增长了423.0%，创下了新的季度纪录。对于2021财年全年，分析师预测蔚来将交付88,280辆汽车，这将是去年总交付量的两倍多。然而，蔚来在3月初警告投资者，全球芯片短缺很可能会削减其产能，至少在第二季度是这样。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.investopedia.com/nio-q1-2021-earnings-report-preview-5180991\">InvestoPedia</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://www.investopedia.com/nio-q1-2021-earnings-report-preview-5180991","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1183966356","content_text":"Focus on NIO vehicle deliveries\nKEY TAKEAWAYS\n\nAnalysts estimate earnings per ADS of -0.72 yuan vs. -1.66 yuan in Q1 FY 2020.\nVehicle deliveries, already announced, rose dramatically YOY.\nRevenue is expected to soar on expanding vehicle sales.\n\nNIO Inc. (NIO), like many other automakers, was forced to halt production this year due to the global semiconductor shortage. Semiconductor chips, widely used in smartphones, computers, and other electronic devices, are especially important to NIO, a maker of premium electric vehicles (EVs). NIO's production stoppage in late March had little impact on the company's record vehicle deliveries in Q1, but it could affect future production numbers.\nInvestors will focus on how these forces affect NIO's immediate results, as well as its financial outlook, when the company reports earnings on April 29, 2021 for Q1 FY 2021.Analysts are expecting the company's loss per American depositary share (ADS) to narrow significantly as revenue expands at a rapid pace.\nVehicle deliveries are another key metric investors watch in order to gauge the company's productive capacity. NIO already reported vehicle deliveries for the first quarter earlier this month, achieving a new quarterly record despite total deliveries coming in slightly below expectations.\nShares of NIO have dramatically outperformed the broader market over the past year. But after reaching all-time highs earlier this year, the stock has fallen considerably and has been trading mostly sideways since early March. NIO's shares have provided investors with an astronomic total return of 1,171.9% over the past year, well above the S&P 500's total return of 45.5%.\nSource: TradingView.\nNIO Earnings History\nThe stock, which had been gathering downward momentum after peaking around mid-February, plunged following NIO's Q4 FY 2020 earnings report released at the beginning of March. The company reported a much larger loss per ADS than analysts expected and revenue also missed estimates. However, NIO's loss narrowed considerably compared to the year-ago quarter and revenue was still up 133.2%.The company was optimistic about its performance, noting that its gross margin rose to 17.2% compared to negative 8.9% in the year-ago quarter.\nIn Q3 FY 2020, NIO posted a loss per ADS of 0.98 yuan ($0.15 as of the CNY/USD exchange rate on April 27, 2021).It was the smallest loss in at least 11 quarters. Revenue rose 146.4%, maintaining the pace of growth achieved in the second quarter.NIO said it delivered a record number of vehicles and saw improvements in its average selling price. The company also said that it was the second straight quarter of positive cash flow from operating activities.\nAnalysts expect continued improvement in NIO's financial results in Q1 FY 2021. While NIO is still expected to post another loss per ADS, it is estimated to be the lowest in at least 14 quarters. Revenue for the quarter is forecast to rise 446.1%, which would be the fastest pace since Q2 FY 2019. For full-year FY 2021, analysts are currently expecting NIO to achieve a loss of 2.72 yuan per ADS, which would be the smallest loss in at least five years. Revenue is expected to rise 109.7%, a faster pace than in each of the last two years.\nSource: Visible Alpha; NIO Inc.\nThe Key Metric\nAs mentioned above, investors are also watching the number of vehicles NIO delivers each quarter. NIO generates some revenue from various services it provides, but the majority of revenue is derived from vehicle sales.Currently, the company makes deliveries of three types of vehicles: the ES8, the company's 6-seater and 7-seater flagship premium smart electric SUV; the ES6, the company’s 5-seater high-performance premium smart electric SUV; and the EC6, the company’s 5-seater premium electric coupe SUV.The number of vehicle deliveries provides an indication of the demand for NIO's vehicles as well as the company's ability to scale production.\nNIO has significantly ramped up its production over the past few years. The company delivered 11,350 vehicles in FY 2018. In FY 2020, it had nearly quadrupled that figure, delivering 43,730 vehicles. Despite a slowdown in Q1 FY 2020 amid the COVID-19 pandemic, NIO quickly made up for the Q1 drop in deliveries with a 190.8% year-over-year increase in Q2 FY 2020. Total vehicle delivery growth decelerated to 154.3% in Q3 and then to 111.0% in Q4. However, vehicle deliveries rose 423.0% in Q1 FY 2021, hitting a new quarterly record, as mentioned above. For full-year FY 2021, analysts are forecasting NIO to deliver 88,280 vehicles, which would be more than double last year's total deliveries. However, NIO warned investors in early March that the global chip shortage is likely to cut its production capacity, at least in the second quarter.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2374,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":364882203,"gmtCreate":1614834126602,"gmtModify":1703481739818,"author":{"id":"3573788390439161","authorId":"3573788390439161","name":"30ad6cc","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573788390439161","idStr":"3573788390439161"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please like and comment, thanks!","listText":"Please like and comment, thanks!","text":"Please like and comment, thanks!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/364882203","repostId":"1186654577","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1186654577","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614829597,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1186654577?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-04 11:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"2 Hot 5G Stocks to Buy Before They Explode<blockquote>2只热门5G股票在爆炸前买入</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1186654577","media":"Nasdaq","summary":"The smartphone market turned around in the fourth quarter of 2020 and ended a difficult year on a hi","content":"<p>The smartphone market turned around in the fourth quarter of 2020 and ended a difficult year on a high. IDC estimates that smartphone shipments jumped 4.3% year-over-year last quarter to 385.9 million units, paving the way for a strong recovery in 2021 after a 5.9% decline in shipments last year.</p><p><blockquote>智能手机市场于2020年第四季度扭转局面，并在高位结束了艰难的一年。IDC估计，上季度智能手机出货量同比增长4.3%至3.859亿部，为继去年出货量下降5.9%后，2021年的强劲复苏铺平了道路。</blockquote></p><p><b>Skyworks Solutions</b>(NASDAQ: <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SWKS\">$(SWKS)$</a>)and<b>Micron Technology</b>(NASDAQ: <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">$(MU)$</a>)are two stocks that are already taking advantage of this turnaround, as they manufacture chips that go into 5G (fifth-generation) smartphones. Skyworks is witnessingtremendous growthin its mobile business, while Micron is about to join the party as well. These factors have contributed to a strong start on the market this year.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48b767d4f2f28bb7d1309b7de0e38239\" tg-width=\"714\" tg-height=\"488\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">These chipmakers are unlikely to lose their impressive stock market momentum in the coming months, as 5G smartphone sales are expected to switch into a higher gear in 2021.<b>Gartner</b>forecasts that global 5G smartphone shipments could jump to nearly 539 million units this year and account for 35% of the overall market. This would be a huge jump over last year's 5G smartphone shipments of 213 million units, and pave the way for stronger growth in Skyworks and Micron's mobile businesses in 2021.</p><p><blockquote><b>Skyworks解决方案</b>（纳斯达克：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SWKS\">$(SWKS)$</a>）和<b>美光科技</b>（纳斯达克：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">$（亩）$</a>）是两只已经利用这一转变的股票，因为它们生产用于5G（第五代）智能手机的芯片。Skyworks正在见证其移动业务的巨大增长，而美光也即将加入这一行列。这些因素促成了今年市场的强劲开局。这些芯片制造商不太可能在未来几个月失去令人印象深刻的股市势头，因为5G智能手机的销售预计将在2021年进入更高的档位。<b>Gartner</b>预测今年全球5G智能手机出货量可能跃升至近5.39亿部，占整体市场的35%。与去年2.13亿部的5G智能手机出货量相比，这将是一个巨大的飞跃，并为Skyworks和美光移动业务在2021年的更强劲增长铺平道路。</blockquote></p><p><b>1. Skyworks Solutions' mobile business is on a roll</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.Skyworks Solutions的移动业务发展势头良好</b></blockquote></p><p>Skyworks' mobile business is its biggest source of revenue, accounting for 78% of its top line last quarter. Skyworks' mobile revenue shot up 81% year-over-year in the first quarter of fiscal 2021, which ended on Jan. 1, 2021, to $1.18 billion.<b>Apple</b>(NASDAQ: AAPL)-- Skyworks' largest customer, generating 56% of total revenue --hit goldwith its latest flagship devices, and that sent the chipmaker's mobile business soaring.</p><p><blockquote>Skyworks的移动业务是其最大的收入来源，占上季度营收的78%。截至2021年1月1日的2021财年第一季度，Skyworks的移动收入同比猛增81%，达到11.8亿美元。<b>苹果</b>（纳斯达克：AAPL）——Skyworks最大的客户，占总收入的56%——凭借其最新的旗舰设备获得了金牌，这使得这家芯片制造商的移动业务飙升。</blockquote></p><p>The Apple catalyst is here to stay for Skyworks for the remainder of the year, for a couple of reasons. First, Apple is expected to remain atop 5G smartphone supplierin 2021 thanks to a large base of users in an upgrade window. Apple's well-priced iPhone 12 lineup and the possibility ofan entry-level devicesupporting the latest wireless standard could help the smartphone giant record strong shipment gains in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>出于几个原因，苹果催化剂将在今年剩余时间里留在Skyworks。首先，由于升级窗口中的大量用户，苹果预计将在2021年保持5G智能手机供应商的领先地位。苹果价格合理的iPhone 12系列以及支持最新无线标准的入门级设备的可能性可能会帮助这家智能手机巨头在2021年创下强劲的出货量增长。</blockquote></p><p>Second, Skyworks is a key Apple supplier. It reportedly supplies as many as eight radio-frequency (RF) modules for the iPhone 12, so Skyworks could see a nice spike in volumes and gain more revenue per iPhone, especially as 5G chips are more expensive than their 4G predecessors.</p><p><blockquote>其次，Skyworks是苹果的关键供应商。据报道，它为iPhone 12提供了多达8个射频（RF）模块，因此Skyworks可能会看到销量大幅飙升，并获得每部iPhone的更多收入，特别是在5G芯片比4G前辈更贵的情况下。</blockquote></p><p>Throw in the fact that Skyworks has started ramping up shipments of its 5G chips to other smartphone OEMs (original equipment manufacturers) such as Vivo, Oppo,<b>Samsung</b>, and<b>Xiaomi</b>, and it becomes easier to see why its mobile business could continue clocking high growth rates. And Skyworks' non-mobile business (better known as the broad markets portfolio) is also benefiting from the 5G rollout.</p><p><blockquote>再加上Skyworks已开始增加其5G芯片向其他智能手机OEM（原始设备制造商）的出货量，例如Vivo、Oppo、<b>三星</b>，和<b>小米</b>，也就更容易理解为什么其移动业务能够继续保持高增长率。Skyworks的非移动业务（更广为人知的名称是广泛的市场投资组合）也受益于5G的推出。</blockquote></p><p>The company's broad markets revenue shot up 35% year-over-year during the quarter as demand for its connectivity solutions supporting 5G infrastructure remained strong. Skyworks recently pointed out that it has shipped more than a million of its 5G small-cell power amplifiers, which help telecom carriers boost network speed.</p><p><blockquote>由于对其支持5G基础设施的连接解决方案的需求依然强劲，该公司的广阔市场收入在本季度同比猛增35%。Skyworks最近指出，其5G小蜂窝功率放大器的出货量已超过100万台，这些放大器有助于电信运营商提高网络速度。</blockquote></p><p>The company also says that the 5G small-cell market still has a lot of room to grow. It could be worth $8.3 billion by 2027, clocking a compound annual growth rate of 43% in the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>该公司还表示，5G小蜂窝市场仍有很大的增长空间。到2027年，它的价值可能达到83亿美元，未来几年的复合年增长率为43%。</blockquote></p><p>Thanks to such impressive catalysts, it isn't surprising to see that Skyworks' top and bottom lines are expected to take off this fiscal year. And it isn't too late for investors to jump onto this bandwagon, as thistop 5G stocktrades at an attractive 21 times forward earnings.</p><p><blockquote>得益于如此令人印象深刻的催化剂，Skyworks的营收和利润预计将在本财年起飞也就不足为奇了。对于投资者来说，加入这一潮流还为时不晚，因为这只顶级5G股票的预期市盈率为21倍，颇具吸引力。</blockquote></p><p><b>2. Micron Technology's mobile business is about to step on the gas</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.美光科技移动业务即将踩油门</b></blockquote></p><p>Micron Technology's mobile business unit delivered $1.5 billion in revenue in the first quarter of fiscal 2021, which ended on Dec. 3, 2020. The segment's revenue increased 3% year-over-year, accounting for nearly 26% of total revenue. Though Micron's mobile growth wasn't as spectacular as Skyworks', management pointed out that mobile \"demand remains strong as 5G momentum increases and the mobile market recovers from the impact of the pandemic.\"</p><p><blockquote>美光科技的移动业务部门在截至2020年12月3日的2021财年第一季度实现了15亿美元的收入。该部门的收入同比增长3%，占总收入的近26%。尽管美光的移动增长不如Skyworks那么引人注目，但管理层指出，“随着5G势头的增强以及移动市场从大流行的影响中复苏，移动需求仍然强劲。”</blockquote></p><p>Mobile accounts for 40% of the overall DRAM market, according to a third-party estimate, and manufacturers such as Micron are reportedly allocating more capacity toward the production of mobile DRAM to meet the recent surge in demand. In fact, demand seems to be so strong that mobile DRAM orders placed in the fourth quarter of 2020 are expected to be fulfilled only in the current quarter.</p><p><blockquote>据第三方估计，移动DRAM占整个DRAM市场的40%，据报道，美光等制造商正在分配更多产能用于移动DRAM的生产，以满足最近激增的需求。事实上，需求似乎如此强劲，以至于2020年第四季度下的移动DRAM订单预计只能在本季度完成。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>This tight supply of DRAM should ideally result in improved pricing. Industry data supports that: The spot price of the 8 GB DDR4 DRAM jumped to $3.93 earlier in February, a sharp jump over the spot price of $2.54 seen in August 2020.</p><p><blockquote>理想情况下，这种DRAM供应紧张应该会提高定价。行业数据支持这一点：8 GB DDR4 DRAM的现货价格在2月初跃升至3.93美元，较2020年8月2.54美元的现货价格大幅上涨。</blockquote></p><p>More importantly, mobile DRAM demand should remain strong, as 5G smartphones are beingequipped with more memorythan their 4G predecessors. This bodes well for Micron, as it reportedly controls 20% of the mobile DRAM market. What's more, the company is trying to grab even more of this space withspecialized 5G memory chipsthat help reduce space and power consumption while delivering faster performance.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，移动DRAM需求应该会保持强劲，因为5G智能手机比4G智能手机配备了更多的内存。这对美光来说是个好兆头，因为据报道，它控制着20%的移动DRAM市场。更重要的是，该公司正试图通过专门的5G存储芯片来抢占更多空间，这些芯片有助于减少空间和功耗，同时提供更快的性能。</blockquote></p><p>So a mix of higher pricing and improved shipment volumes will be a tailwind for Micron's mobile business this year. More importantly, the mobile DRAM market presents a long-term growth opportunity for Micron given its solid market share in this space. The global mobile DRAM market's revenue is expected to jump from an estimated $19.5 billion last year to $35.6 billion in 2027, according to a third-party estimate.</p><p><blockquote>因此，更高的定价和更好的出货量将成为美光今年移动业务的推动力。更重要的是，鉴于美光在该领域稳固的市场份额，移动DRAM市场为美光提供了长期增长机会。根据第三方估计，全球移动DRAM市场的收入预计将从去年的195亿美元跃升至2027年的356亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Thrownother catalystssuch as data centers, consoles, and personal computers into the mix, and it isn't too difficult to see why Micron's earnings are expected to grow at a fast clip over the next couple of years.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4432a84bca38fc32d66f505cac1dbae\" tg-width=\"758\" tg-height=\"493\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">MU EPS Estimates for Next Fiscal Yeardata byYCharts</p><p><blockquote>再加上数据中心、游戏机和个人电脑等其他催化剂，就不难理解为什么美光科技的盈利预计将在未来几年快速增长。MU下一财年每股收益预测数据来自YCharts</blockquote></p><p>That's why investors looking to buy a diversified company to take advantage of the growing adoption of 5G smartphones might want to consider Micron Technology, as it has multiple businesses driving its growth. What's more, Micron is trading at less than 22 times forward earnings, so it isn't too late to buy thisgrowth stock-- it has room for more upside thanks to catalysts such as 5G smartphones.</p><p><blockquote>这就是为什么希望收购一家多元化公司以利用5G智能手机日益普及的机会的投资者可能会考虑美光科技，因为该公司拥有多项业务推动其增长。更重要的是，美光科技的预期市盈率不到22倍，因此购买这只成长型股票还为时不晚——得益于5G智能手机等催化剂，它还有更大的上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603171495471","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2 Hot 5G Stocks to Buy Before They Explode<blockquote>2只热门5G股票在爆炸前买入</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2 Hot 5G Stocks to Buy Before They Explode<blockquote>2只热门5G股票在爆炸前买入</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Nasdaq</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-04 11:46</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The smartphone market turned around in the fourth quarter of 2020 and ended a difficult year on a high. IDC estimates that smartphone shipments jumped 4.3% year-over-year last quarter to 385.9 million units, paving the way for a strong recovery in 2021 after a 5.9% decline in shipments last year.</p><p><blockquote>智能手机市场于2020年第四季度扭转局面，并在高位结束了艰难的一年。IDC估计，上季度智能手机出货量同比增长4.3%至3.859亿部，为继去年出货量下降5.9%后，2021年的强劲复苏铺平了道路。</blockquote></p><p><b>Skyworks Solutions</b>(NASDAQ: <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SWKS\">$(SWKS)$</a>)and<b>Micron Technology</b>(NASDAQ: <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">$(MU)$</a>)are two stocks that are already taking advantage of this turnaround, as they manufacture chips that go into 5G (fifth-generation) smartphones. Skyworks is witnessingtremendous growthin its mobile business, while Micron is about to join the party as well. These factors have contributed to a strong start on the market this year.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48b767d4f2f28bb7d1309b7de0e38239\" tg-width=\"714\" tg-height=\"488\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">These chipmakers are unlikely to lose their impressive stock market momentum in the coming months, as 5G smartphone sales are expected to switch into a higher gear in 2021.<b>Gartner</b>forecasts that global 5G smartphone shipments could jump to nearly 539 million units this year and account for 35% of the overall market. This would be a huge jump over last year's 5G smartphone shipments of 213 million units, and pave the way for stronger growth in Skyworks and Micron's mobile businesses in 2021.</p><p><blockquote><b>Skyworks解决方案</b>（纳斯达克：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SWKS\">$(SWKS)$</a>）和<b>美光科技</b>（纳斯达克：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">$（亩）$</a>）是两只已经利用这一转变的股票，因为它们生产用于5G（第五代）智能手机的芯片。Skyworks正在见证其移动业务的巨大增长，而美光也即将加入这一行列。这些因素促成了今年市场的强劲开局。这些芯片制造商不太可能在未来几个月失去令人印象深刻的股市势头，因为5G智能手机的销售预计将在2021年进入更高的档位。<b>Gartner</b>预测今年全球5G智能手机出货量可能跃升至近5.39亿部，占整体市场的35%。与去年2.13亿部的5G智能手机出货量相比，这将是一个巨大的飞跃，并为Skyworks和美光移动业务在2021年的更强劲增长铺平道路。</blockquote></p><p><b>1. Skyworks Solutions' mobile business is on a roll</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.Skyworks Solutions的移动业务发展势头良好</b></blockquote></p><p>Skyworks' mobile business is its biggest source of revenue, accounting for 78% of its top line last quarter. Skyworks' mobile revenue shot up 81% year-over-year in the first quarter of fiscal 2021, which ended on Jan. 1, 2021, to $1.18 billion.<b>Apple</b>(NASDAQ: AAPL)-- Skyworks' largest customer, generating 56% of total revenue --hit goldwith its latest flagship devices, and that sent the chipmaker's mobile business soaring.</p><p><blockquote>Skyworks的移动业务是其最大的收入来源，占上季度营收的78%。截至2021年1月1日的2021财年第一季度，Skyworks的移动收入同比猛增81%，达到11.8亿美元。<b>苹果</b>（纳斯达克：AAPL）——Skyworks最大的客户，占总收入的56%——凭借其最新的旗舰设备获得了金牌，这使得这家芯片制造商的移动业务飙升。</blockquote></p><p>The Apple catalyst is here to stay for Skyworks for the remainder of the year, for a couple of reasons. First, Apple is expected to remain atop 5G smartphone supplierin 2021 thanks to a large base of users in an upgrade window. Apple's well-priced iPhone 12 lineup and the possibility ofan entry-level devicesupporting the latest wireless standard could help the smartphone giant record strong shipment gains in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>出于几个原因，苹果催化剂将在今年剩余时间里留在Skyworks。首先，由于升级窗口中的大量用户，苹果预计将在2021年保持5G智能手机供应商的领先地位。苹果价格合理的iPhone 12系列以及支持最新无线标准的入门级设备的可能性可能会帮助这家智能手机巨头在2021年创下强劲的出货量增长。</blockquote></p><p>Second, Skyworks is a key Apple supplier. It reportedly supplies as many as eight radio-frequency (RF) modules for the iPhone 12, so Skyworks could see a nice spike in volumes and gain more revenue per iPhone, especially as 5G chips are more expensive than their 4G predecessors.</p><p><blockquote>其次，Skyworks是苹果的关键供应商。据报道，它为iPhone 12提供了多达8个射频（RF）模块，因此Skyworks可能会看到销量大幅飙升，并获得每部iPhone的更多收入，特别是在5G芯片比4G前辈更贵的情况下。</blockquote></p><p>Throw in the fact that Skyworks has started ramping up shipments of its 5G chips to other smartphone OEMs (original equipment manufacturers) such as Vivo, Oppo,<b>Samsung</b>, and<b>Xiaomi</b>, and it becomes easier to see why its mobile business could continue clocking high growth rates. And Skyworks' non-mobile business (better known as the broad markets portfolio) is also benefiting from the 5G rollout.</p><p><blockquote>再加上Skyworks已开始增加其5G芯片向其他智能手机OEM（原始设备制造商）的出货量，例如Vivo、Oppo、<b>三星</b>，和<b>小米</b>，也就更容易理解为什么其移动业务能够继续保持高增长率。Skyworks的非移动业务（更广为人知的名称是广泛的市场投资组合）也受益于5G的推出。</blockquote></p><p>The company's broad markets revenue shot up 35% year-over-year during the quarter as demand for its connectivity solutions supporting 5G infrastructure remained strong. Skyworks recently pointed out that it has shipped more than a million of its 5G small-cell power amplifiers, which help telecom carriers boost network speed.</p><p><blockquote>由于对其支持5G基础设施的连接解决方案的需求依然强劲，该公司的广阔市场收入在本季度同比猛增35%。Skyworks最近指出，其5G小蜂窝功率放大器的出货量已超过100万台，这些放大器有助于电信运营商提高网络速度。</blockquote></p><p>The company also says that the 5G small-cell market still has a lot of room to grow. It could be worth $8.3 billion by 2027, clocking a compound annual growth rate of 43% in the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>该公司还表示，5G小蜂窝市场仍有很大的增长空间。到2027年，它的价值可能达到83亿美元，未来几年的复合年增长率为43%。</blockquote></p><p>Thanks to such impressive catalysts, it isn't surprising to see that Skyworks' top and bottom lines are expected to take off this fiscal year. And it isn't too late for investors to jump onto this bandwagon, as thistop 5G stocktrades at an attractive 21 times forward earnings.</p><p><blockquote>得益于如此令人印象深刻的催化剂，Skyworks的营收和利润预计将在本财年起飞也就不足为奇了。对于投资者来说，加入这一潮流还为时不晚，因为这只顶级5G股票的预期市盈率为21倍，颇具吸引力。</blockquote></p><p><b>2. Micron Technology's mobile business is about to step on the gas</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.美光科技移动业务即将踩油门</b></blockquote></p><p>Micron Technology's mobile business unit delivered $1.5 billion in revenue in the first quarter of fiscal 2021, which ended on Dec. 3, 2020. The segment's revenue increased 3% year-over-year, accounting for nearly 26% of total revenue. Though Micron's mobile growth wasn't as spectacular as Skyworks', management pointed out that mobile \"demand remains strong as 5G momentum increases and the mobile market recovers from the impact of the pandemic.\"</p><p><blockquote>美光科技的移动业务部门在截至2020年12月3日的2021财年第一季度实现了15亿美元的收入。该部门的收入同比增长3%，占总收入的近26%。尽管美光的移动增长不如Skyworks那么引人注目，但管理层指出，“随着5G势头的增强以及移动市场从大流行的影响中复苏，移动需求仍然强劲。”</blockquote></p><p>Mobile accounts for 40% of the overall DRAM market, according to a third-party estimate, and manufacturers such as Micron are reportedly allocating more capacity toward the production of mobile DRAM to meet the recent surge in demand. In fact, demand seems to be so strong that mobile DRAM orders placed in the fourth quarter of 2020 are expected to be fulfilled only in the current quarter.</p><p><blockquote>据第三方估计，移动DRAM占整个DRAM市场的40%，据报道，美光等制造商正在分配更多产能用于移动DRAM的生产，以满足最近激增的需求。事实上，需求似乎如此强劲，以至于2020年第四季度下的移动DRAM订单预计只能在本季度完成。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>This tight supply of DRAM should ideally result in improved pricing. Industry data supports that: The spot price of the 8 GB DDR4 DRAM jumped to $3.93 earlier in February, a sharp jump over the spot price of $2.54 seen in August 2020.</p><p><blockquote>理想情况下，这种DRAM供应紧张应该会提高定价。行业数据支持这一点：8 GB DDR4 DRAM的现货价格在2月初跃升至3.93美元，较2020年8月2.54美元的现货价格大幅上涨。</blockquote></p><p>More importantly, mobile DRAM demand should remain strong, as 5G smartphones are beingequipped with more memorythan their 4G predecessors. This bodes well for Micron, as it reportedly controls 20% of the mobile DRAM market. What's more, the company is trying to grab even more of this space withspecialized 5G memory chipsthat help reduce space and power consumption while delivering faster performance.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，移动DRAM需求应该会保持强劲，因为5G智能手机比4G智能手机配备了更多的内存。这对美光来说是个好兆头，因为据报道，它控制着20%的移动DRAM市场。更重要的是，该公司正试图通过专门的5G存储芯片来抢占更多空间，这些芯片有助于减少空间和功耗，同时提供更快的性能。</blockquote></p><p>So a mix of higher pricing and improved shipment volumes will be a tailwind for Micron's mobile business this year. More importantly, the mobile DRAM market presents a long-term growth opportunity for Micron given its solid market share in this space. The global mobile DRAM market's revenue is expected to jump from an estimated $19.5 billion last year to $35.6 billion in 2027, according to a third-party estimate.</p><p><blockquote>因此，更高的定价和更好的出货量将成为美光今年移动业务的推动力。更重要的是，鉴于美光在该领域稳固的市场份额，移动DRAM市场为美光提供了长期增长机会。根据第三方估计，全球移动DRAM市场的收入预计将从去年的195亿美元跃升至2027年的356亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Thrownother catalystssuch as data centers, consoles, and personal computers into the mix, and it isn't too difficult to see why Micron's earnings are expected to grow at a fast clip over the next couple of years.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4432a84bca38fc32d66f505cac1dbae\" tg-width=\"758\" tg-height=\"493\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">MU EPS Estimates for Next Fiscal Yeardata byYCharts</p><p><blockquote>再加上数据中心、游戏机和个人电脑等其他催化剂，就不难理解为什么美光科技的盈利预计将在未来几年快速增长。MU下一财年每股收益预测数据来自YCharts</blockquote></p><p>That's why investors looking to buy a diversified company to take advantage of the growing adoption of 5G smartphones might want to consider Micron Technology, as it has multiple businesses driving its growth. What's more, Micron is trading at less than 22 times forward earnings, so it isn't too late to buy thisgrowth stock-- it has room for more upside thanks to catalysts such as 5G smartphones.</p><p><blockquote>这就是为什么希望收购一家多元化公司以利用5G智能手机日益普及的机会的投资者可能会考虑美光科技，因为该公司拥有多项业务推动其增长。更重要的是，美光科技的预期市盈率不到22倍，因此购买这只成长型股票还为时不晚——得益于5G智能手机等催化剂，它还有更大的上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/2-hot-5g-stocks-to-buy-before-they-explode-2021-03-03\">Nasdaq</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b404fb9c9ce943d48d73d9e4b47bb53c","relate_stocks":{"SWKS":"思佳讯","MU":"美光科技"},"source_url":"https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/2-hot-5g-stocks-to-buy-before-they-explode-2021-03-03","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1186654577","content_text":"The smartphone market turned around in the fourth quarter of 2020 and ended a difficult year on a high. IDC estimates that smartphone shipments jumped 4.3% year-over-year last quarter to 385.9 million units, paving the way for a strong recovery in 2021 after a 5.9% decline in shipments last year.Skyworks Solutions(NASDAQ: $(SWKS)$)andMicron Technology(NASDAQ: $(MU)$)are two stocks that are already taking advantage of this turnaround, as they manufacture chips that go into 5G (fifth-generation) smartphones. Skyworks is witnessingtremendous growthin its mobile business, while Micron is about to join the party as well. These factors have contributed to a strong start on the market this year.These chipmakers are unlikely to lose their impressive stock market momentum in the coming months, as 5G smartphone sales are expected to switch into a higher gear in 2021.Gartnerforecasts that global 5G smartphone shipments could jump to nearly 539 million units this year and account for 35% of the overall market. This would be a huge jump over last year's 5G smartphone shipments of 213 million units, and pave the way for stronger growth in Skyworks and Micron's mobile businesses in 2021.1. Skyworks Solutions' mobile business is on a rollSkyworks' mobile business is its biggest source of revenue, accounting for 78% of its top line last quarter. Skyworks' mobile revenue shot up 81% year-over-year in the first quarter of fiscal 2021, which ended on Jan. 1, 2021, to $1.18 billion.Apple(NASDAQ: AAPL)-- Skyworks' largest customer, generating 56% of total revenue --hit goldwith its latest flagship devices, and that sent the chipmaker's mobile business soaring.The Apple catalyst is here to stay for Skyworks for the remainder of the year, for a couple of reasons. First, Apple is expected to remain atop 5G smartphone supplierin 2021 thanks to a large base of users in an upgrade window. Apple's well-priced iPhone 12 lineup and the possibility ofan entry-level devicesupporting the latest wireless standard could help the smartphone giant record strong shipment gains in 2021.Second, Skyworks is a key Apple supplier. It reportedly supplies as many as eight radio-frequency (RF) modules for the iPhone 12, so Skyworks could see a nice spike in volumes and gain more revenue per iPhone, especially as 5G chips are more expensive than their 4G predecessors.Throw in the fact that Skyworks has started ramping up shipments of its 5G chips to other smartphone OEMs (original equipment manufacturers) such as Vivo, Oppo,Samsung, andXiaomi, and it becomes easier to see why its mobile business could continue clocking high growth rates. And Skyworks' non-mobile business (better known as the broad markets portfolio) is also benefiting from the 5G rollout.The company's broad markets revenue shot up 35% year-over-year during the quarter as demand for its connectivity solutions supporting 5G infrastructure remained strong. Skyworks recently pointed out that it has shipped more than a million of its 5G small-cell power amplifiers, which help telecom carriers boost network speed.The company also says that the 5G small-cell market still has a lot of room to grow. It could be worth $8.3 billion by 2027, clocking a compound annual growth rate of 43% in the coming years.Thanks to such impressive catalysts, it isn't surprising to see that Skyworks' top and bottom lines are expected to take off this fiscal year. And it isn't too late for investors to jump onto this bandwagon, as thistop 5G stocktrades at an attractive 21 times forward earnings.2. Micron Technology's mobile business is about to step on the gasMicron Technology's mobile business unit delivered $1.5 billion in revenue in the first quarter of fiscal 2021, which ended on Dec. 3, 2020. The segment's revenue increased 3% year-over-year, accounting for nearly 26% of total revenue. Though Micron's mobile growth wasn't as spectacular as Skyworks', management pointed out that mobile \"demand remains strong as 5G momentum increases and the mobile market recovers from the impact of the pandemic.\"Mobile accounts for 40% of the overall DRAM market, according to a third-party estimate, and manufacturers such as Micron are reportedly allocating more capacity toward the production of mobile DRAM to meet the recent surge in demand. In fact, demand seems to be so strong that mobile DRAM orders placed in the fourth quarter of 2020 are expected to be fulfilled only in the current quarter.This tight supply of DRAM should ideally result in improved pricing. Industry data supports that: The spot price of the 8 GB DDR4 DRAM jumped to $3.93 earlier in February, a sharp jump over the spot price of $2.54 seen in August 2020.More importantly, mobile DRAM demand should remain strong, as 5G smartphones are beingequipped with more memorythan their 4G predecessors. This bodes well for Micron, as it reportedly controls 20% of the mobile DRAM market. What's more, the company is trying to grab even more of this space withspecialized 5G memory chipsthat help reduce space and power consumption while delivering faster performance.So a mix of higher pricing and improved shipment volumes will be a tailwind for Micron's mobile business this year. More importantly, the mobile DRAM market presents a long-term growth opportunity for Micron given its solid market share in this space. The global mobile DRAM market's revenue is expected to jump from an estimated $19.5 billion last year to $35.6 billion in 2027, according to a third-party estimate.Thrownother catalystssuch as data centers, consoles, and personal computers into the mix, and it isn't too difficult to see why Micron's earnings are expected to grow at a fast clip over the next couple of years.MU EPS Estimates for Next Fiscal Yeardata byYChartsThat's why investors looking to buy a diversified company to take advantage of the growing adoption of 5G smartphones might want to consider Micron Technology, as it has multiple businesses driving its growth. What's more, Micron is trading at less than 22 times forward earnings, so it isn't too late to buy thisgrowth stock-- it has room for more upside thanks to catalysts such as 5G smartphones.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SWKS":0.9,"MU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":691,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":137519107,"gmtCreate":1622360868809,"gmtModify":1634102035855,"author":{"id":"3573788390439161","authorId":"3573788390439161","name":"30ad6cc","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573788390439161","idStr":"3573788390439161"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Walao eh","listText":"Walao eh","text":"Walao eh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/137519107","repostId":"2138488778","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1808,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":199919861,"gmtCreate":1620661567353,"gmtModify":1634197305289,"author":{"id":"3573788390439161","authorId":"3573788390439161","name":"30ad6cc","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573788390439161","idStr":"3573788390439161"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yup that's right","listText":"Yup that's right","text":"Yup that's right","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/199919861","repostId":"1120120226","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1120120226","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620623863,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1120120226?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-10 13:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"US government declares emergency after cyberattack on major pipeline<blockquote>美国政府在主要管道遭到网络攻击后宣布进入紧急状态</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120120226","media":"AFP","summary":"The US government declared a regional emergency Sunday as the largest fuel pipeline system in the Un","content":"<p>The US government declared a regional emergency Sunday as the largest fuel pipeline system in the United States remained largely shut down, two days after a major ransomware attack was detected.</p><p><blockquote>美国政府周日宣布进入地区紧急状态，因为在发现重大勒索软件攻击两天后，美国最大的燃料管道系统仍基本关闭。</blockquote></p><p>The Colonial Pipeline Company ships gasoline and jet fuel from the Gulf Coast of Texas to the populousEast Coastthrough 5,500 miles (8,850 kilometres) of pipeline, serving 50 million consumers.</p><p><blockquote>Colonial Pipeline Company通过5,500英里（8,850公里）的管道将汽油和喷气燃料从德克萨斯州墨西哥湾沿岸运送到人口稠密的东海岸，为5,000万消费者提供服务。</blockquote></p><p>The company said it was the victim of acybersecurity attackinvolving ransomware -- attacks that encrypt computer systems and seek to extract payments from operators.</p><p><blockquote>该公司表示，它是涉及勒索软件的网络安全攻击的受害者，这种攻击加密计算机系统并试图从运营商那里提取付款。</blockquote></p><p>\"This Declaration addresses the emergency conditions creating a need for immediate transportation of gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and other refined petroleum products and provides necessary relief,\" the Department of Transportation said in a statement.</p><p><blockquote>美国交通部在一份声明中表示：“该声明解决了需要立即运输汽油、柴油、喷气燃料和其他精炼石油产品的紧急情况，并提供了必要的救济。”</blockquote></p><p>The emergency declaration allows for fuel to be transported by road to the affected states: Alabama, Arkansas, District of Columbia, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, New Jersey,New York, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas and Virginia.</p><p><blockquote>紧急声明允许燃料通过公路运输到受影响的州：阿拉巴马州、阿肯色州、哥伦比亚特区、特拉华州、佛罗里达州、佐治亚州、肯塔基州、路易斯安那州、马里兰州、密西西比州、新泽西州、纽约州、北卡罗来纳州、宾夕法尼亚州、南卡罗来纳州、田纳西州、德克萨斯州和弗吉尼亚州。</blockquote></p><p>The declaration also provides regulatory relief to commercial motor vehicle operations that are part of the emergency support efforts.</p><p><blockquote>该宣言还为作为紧急支持工作一部分的商业机动车辆运营提供了监管救济。</blockquote></p><p>Colonial said earlier Sunday that it had opened some smaller delivery lines, but the main system was not yet back up and running.</p><p><blockquote>Colonial周日早些时候表示，它已经开通了一些较小的输送线路，但主要系统尚未恢复运行。</blockquote></p><p>\"While our mainlines remain offline, some smaller lateral lines between terminals and delivery points are now operational,\" Colonial said in a statement, adding it would \"bring our full system back online only when we believe it is safe to do so.\"</p><p><blockquote>Colonial在一份声明中表示：“虽然我们的主线仍然离线，但航站楼和交付点之间的一些较小的支线现已投入运营。”他补充说，“只有在我们认为安全的情况下，我们的整个系统才会恢复上线。”</blockquote></p><p>\"We have remained in contact with law enforcement and other federal agencies, including the Department of Energy who is leading the Federal Government response,\" it added.</p><p><blockquote>它补充说：“我们一直与执法部门和其他联邦机构保持联系，包括领导联邦政府应对措施的能源部。”</blockquote></p><p>\"Maintaining the operational security of our pipeline, in addition to safely bringing our systems back online, remain our highest priorities.\"</p><p><blockquote>“除了安全地使我们的系统恢复在线之外，维护我们管道的运营安全仍然是我们的首要任务。”</blockquote></p><p><b>Calls for improved oversight</b></p><p><blockquote><b>改善监督的评级</b></blockquote></p><p>Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo told CBS on Sunday that authorities were working to prevent any disruption to supplies.</p><p><blockquote>商务部长吉娜·雷蒙多周日告诉哥伦比亚广播公司，当局正在努力防止供应中断。</blockquote></p><p>Colonial, based in the southern state of Georgia, is the largest pipeline operator in the United States by volume, normally transporting 2.5 million barrels of gasoline, diesel fuel, jet fuel and other refined petroleum products per day.</p><p><blockquote>Colonial总部位于南部佐治亚州，是美国运量最大的管道运营商，通常每天运输250万桶汽油、柴油、喷气燃料和其他精炼石油产品。</blockquote></p><p>The attack prompted calls from cybersecurity experts for improved oversight of the industry to prepare for future threats.</p><p><blockquote>此次攻击促使网络安全专家发出评级，要求改善对该行业的监管，为未来的威胁做好准备。</blockquote></p><p>\"This attack is unusual for the US. But the bottom line is that attacks targeting operational technology -- the industrial control systems on the production line or plant floor -- are becoming more frequent,\" Algirde Pipikaite, cyber strategy lead at the World Economic Forum's Centre for Cybersecurity, told AFP on Saturday.</p><p><blockquote>世界经济论坛网络战略负责人阿尔吉德·皮皮凯特（Algirde Pipikaite）周六告诉法新社：“这次攻击对美国来说是不寻常的。但底线是，针对运营技术（生产线或工厂车间的工业控制系统）的攻击变得越来越频繁。”论坛网络安全中心。</blockquote></p><p>\"Unless cybersecurity measures are embedded in a technology's development phase, we are likely to see more frequent attacks on industrial systems like oil and gas pipelines or water treatment plants.\"</p><p><blockquote>“除非在技术开发阶段嵌入网络安全措施，否则我们可能会看到针对石油和天然气管道或水处理厂等工业系统的更频繁攻击。”</blockquote></p><p>Gas prices jumped in the United States on Sunday following the ransomware attack. Analysts warn that prices could climb even higher if the pipeline is not reopened soon. Oil prices rose more than one percent Monday.</p><p><blockquote>勒索软件攻击后，周日美国汽油价格飙升。分析师警告说，如果管道不尽快重新开放，价格可能会攀升得更高。周一油价上涨超过1%。</blockquote></p><p>The United States was rocked in recent months by news of two major cybersecurity breaches -- the SolarWinds hack that compromised thousands of US government and private sector computer networks and was officially blamed on Russia; and a potentially devastating penetration of Microsoft email servers.</p><p><blockquote>最近几个月，两起重大网络安全漏洞的消息震惊了美国——网络安全管理软件产品黑客入侵了数千个美国政府和私营部门的计算机网络，并被官方归咎于俄罗斯；以及对微软电子邮件服务器的潜在毁灭性渗透。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1620623854247","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US government declares emergency after 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}\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS government declares emergency after cyberattack on major pipeline<blockquote>美国政府在主要管道遭到网络攻击后宣布进入紧急状态</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">AFP</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-10 13:17</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The US government declared a regional emergency Sunday as the largest fuel pipeline system in the United States remained largely shut down, two days after a major ransomware attack was detected.</p><p><blockquote>美国政府周日宣布进入地区紧急状态，因为在发现重大勒索软件攻击两天后，美国最大的燃料管道系统仍基本关闭。</blockquote></p><p>The Colonial Pipeline Company ships gasoline and jet fuel from the Gulf Coast of Texas to the populousEast Coastthrough 5,500 miles (8,850 kilometres) of pipeline, serving 50 million consumers.</p><p><blockquote>Colonial Pipeline Company通过5,500英里（8,850公里）的管道将汽油和喷气燃料从德克萨斯州墨西哥湾沿岸运送到人口稠密的东海岸，为5,000万消费者提供服务。</blockquote></p><p>The company said it was the victim of acybersecurity attackinvolving ransomware -- attacks that encrypt computer systems and seek to extract payments from operators.</p><p><blockquote>该公司表示，它是涉及勒索软件的网络安全攻击的受害者，这种攻击加密计算机系统并试图从运营商那里提取付款。</blockquote></p><p>\"This Declaration addresses the emergency conditions creating a need for immediate transportation of gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and other refined petroleum products and provides necessary relief,\" the Department of Transportation said in a statement.</p><p><blockquote>美国交通部在一份声明中表示：“该声明解决了需要立即运输汽油、柴油、喷气燃料和其他精炼石油产品的紧急情况，并提供了必要的救济。”</blockquote></p><p>The emergency declaration allows for fuel to be transported by road to the affected states: Alabama, Arkansas, District of Columbia, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, New Jersey,New York, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas and Virginia.</p><p><blockquote>紧急声明允许燃料通过公路运输到受影响的州：阿拉巴马州、阿肯色州、哥伦比亚特区、特拉华州、佛罗里达州、佐治亚州、肯塔基州、路易斯安那州、马里兰州、密西西比州、新泽西州、纽约州、北卡罗来纳州、宾夕法尼亚州、南卡罗来纳州、田纳西州、德克萨斯州和弗吉尼亚州。</blockquote></p><p>The declaration also provides regulatory relief to commercial motor vehicle operations that are part of the emergency support efforts.</p><p><blockquote>该宣言还为作为紧急支持工作一部分的商业机动车辆运营提供了监管救济。</blockquote></p><p>Colonial said earlier Sunday that it had opened some smaller delivery lines, but the main system was not yet back up and running.</p><p><blockquote>Colonial周日早些时候表示，它已经开通了一些较小的输送线路，但主要系统尚未恢复运行。</blockquote></p><p>\"While our mainlines remain offline, some smaller lateral lines between terminals and delivery points are now operational,\" Colonial said in a statement, adding it would \"bring our full system back online only when we believe it is safe to do so.\"</p><p><blockquote>Colonial在一份声明中表示：“虽然我们的主线仍然离线，但航站楼和交付点之间的一些较小的支线现已投入运营。”他补充说，“只有在我们认为安全的情况下，我们的整个系统才会恢复上线。”</blockquote></p><p>\"We have remained in contact with law enforcement and other federal agencies, including the Department of Energy who is leading the Federal Government response,\" it added.</p><p><blockquote>它补充说：“我们一直与执法部门和其他联邦机构保持联系，包括领导联邦政府应对措施的能源部。”</blockquote></p><p>\"Maintaining the operational security of our pipeline, in addition to safely bringing our systems back online, remain our highest priorities.\"</p><p><blockquote>“除了安全地使我们的系统恢复在线之外，维护我们管道的运营安全仍然是我们的首要任务。”</blockquote></p><p><b>Calls for improved oversight</b></p><p><blockquote><b>改善监督的评级</b></blockquote></p><p>Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo told CBS on Sunday that authorities were working to prevent any disruption to supplies.</p><p><blockquote>商务部长吉娜·雷蒙多周日告诉哥伦比亚广播公司，当局正在努力防止供应中断。</blockquote></p><p>Colonial, based in the southern state of Georgia, is the largest pipeline operator in the United States by volume, normally transporting 2.5 million barrels of gasoline, diesel fuel, jet fuel and other refined petroleum products per day.</p><p><blockquote>Colonial总部位于南部佐治亚州，是美国运量最大的管道运营商，通常每天运输250万桶汽油、柴油、喷气燃料和其他精炼石油产品。</blockquote></p><p>The attack prompted calls from cybersecurity experts for improved oversight of the industry to prepare for future threats.</p><p><blockquote>此次攻击促使网络安全专家发出评级，要求改善对该行业的监管，为未来的威胁做好准备。</blockquote></p><p>\"This attack is unusual for the US. But the bottom line is that attacks targeting operational technology -- the industrial control systems on the production line or plant floor -- are becoming more frequent,\" Algirde Pipikaite, cyber strategy lead at the World Economic Forum's Centre for Cybersecurity, told AFP on Saturday.</p><p><blockquote>世界经济论坛网络战略负责人阿尔吉德·皮皮凯特（Algirde Pipikaite）周六告诉法新社：“这次攻击对美国来说是不寻常的。但底线是，针对运营技术（生产线或工厂车间的工业控制系统）的攻击变得越来越频繁。”论坛网络安全中心。</blockquote></p><p>\"Unless cybersecurity measures are embedded in a technology's development phase, we are likely to see more frequent attacks on industrial systems like oil and gas pipelines or water treatment plants.\"</p><p><blockquote>“除非在技术开发阶段嵌入网络安全措施，否则我们可能会看到针对石油和天然气管道或水处理厂等工业系统的更频繁攻击。”</blockquote></p><p>Gas prices jumped in the United States on Sunday following the ransomware attack. Analysts warn that prices could climb even higher if the pipeline is not reopened soon. Oil prices rose more than one percent Monday.</p><p><blockquote>勒索软件攻击后，周日美国汽油价格飙升。分析师警告说，如果管道不尽快重新开放，价格可能会攀升得更高。周一油价上涨超过1%。</blockquote></p><p>The United States was rocked in recent months by news of two major cybersecurity breaches -- the SolarWinds hack that compromised thousands of US government and private sector computer networks and was officially blamed on Russia; and a potentially devastating penetration of Microsoft email servers.</p><p><blockquote>最近几个月，两起重大网络安全漏洞的消息震惊了美国——网络安全管理软件产品黑客入侵了数千个美国政府和私营部门的计算机网络，并被官方归咎于俄罗斯；以及对微软电子邮件服务器的潜在毁灭性渗透。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.france24.com/en/americas/20210510-biden-declares-state-of-emergency-after-major-us-pipeline-shut-due-to-cyber-attack\">AFP</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.france24.com/en/americas/20210510-biden-declares-state-of-emergency-after-major-us-pipeline-shut-due-to-cyber-attack","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120120226","content_text":"The US government declared a regional emergency Sunday as the largest fuel pipeline system in the United States remained largely shut down, two days after a major ransomware attack was detected.The Colonial Pipeline Company ships gasoline and jet fuel from the Gulf Coast of Texas to the populousEast Coastthrough 5,500 miles (8,850 kilometres) of pipeline, serving 50 million consumers.The company said it was the victim of acybersecurity attackinvolving ransomware -- attacks that encrypt computer systems and seek to extract payments from operators.\"This Declaration addresses the emergency conditions creating a need for immediate transportation of gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and other refined petroleum products and provides necessary relief,\" the Department of Transportation said in a statement.The emergency declaration allows for fuel to be transported by road to the affected states: Alabama, Arkansas, District of Columbia, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, New Jersey,New York, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas and Virginia.The declaration also provides regulatory relief to commercial motor vehicle operations that are part of the emergency support efforts.Colonial said earlier Sunday that it had opened some smaller delivery lines, but the main system was not yet back up and running.\"While our mainlines remain offline, some smaller lateral lines between terminals and delivery points are now operational,\" Colonial said in a statement, adding it would \"bring our full system back online only when we believe it is safe to do so.\"\"We have remained in contact with law enforcement and other federal agencies, including the Department of Energy who is leading the Federal Government response,\" it added.\"Maintaining the operational security of our pipeline, in addition to safely bringing our systems back online, remain our highest priorities.\"Calls for improved oversightCommerce Secretary Gina Raimondo told CBS on Sunday that authorities were working to prevent any disruption to supplies.Colonial, based in the southern state of Georgia, is the largest pipeline operator in the United States by volume, normally transporting 2.5 million barrels of gasoline, diesel fuel, jet fuel and other refined petroleum products per day.The attack prompted calls from cybersecurity experts for improved oversight of the industry to prepare for future threats.\"This attack is unusual for the US. But the bottom line is that attacks targeting operational technology -- the industrial control systems on the production line or plant floor -- are becoming more frequent,\" Algirde Pipikaite, cyber strategy lead at the World Economic Forum's Centre for Cybersecurity, told AFP on Saturday.\"Unless cybersecurity measures are embedded in a technology's development phase, we are likely to see more frequent attacks on industrial systems like oil and gas pipelines or water treatment plants.\"Gas prices jumped in the United States on Sunday following the ransomware attack. Analysts warn that prices could climb even higher if the pipeline is not reopened soon. Oil prices rose more than one percent Monday.The United States was rocked in recent months by news of two major cybersecurity breaches -- the SolarWinds hack that compromised thousands of US government and private sector computer networks and was officially blamed on Russia; and a potentially devastating penetration of Microsoft email servers.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1534,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":321263591,"gmtCreate":1615439674713,"gmtModify":1703489083734,"author":{"id":"3573788390439161","authorId":"3573788390439161","name":"30ad6cc","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573788390439161","idStr":"3573788390439161"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please help to like and comment, thanks!","listText":"Please help to like and comment, thanks!","text":"Please help to like and comment, thanks!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/321263591","repostId":"1166725903","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1166725903","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615437180,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1166725903?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-11 12:33","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Rise of the Retail Trader – How the Stimulus Money Finds Its Way to the Stock Market<blockquote>散户交易者的崛起——刺激资金如何进入股市</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166725903","media":"VantagePoint","summary":"During the 2020 pandemic, people around the world were forced to stay at home. Remote working became","content":"<p><b>During the 2020 pandemic, people around the world were forced to stay at home. Remote working became the norm, and, when not possible, the state intervened and supplemented the households’ income via fiscal support.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在2020年疫情期间，世界各地的人们被迫呆在家里。远程工作成为常态，在不可能的情况下，国家进行干预并通过财政支持补充家庭收入。</b></blockquote></p><p>The support took various forms. From cutting the VAT (e.g., in Germany) to direct help from the state towards the employees (i.e., Spain), to direct checks sent to the population – you name it. In the end, the income gap was filled – in some countries faster than in others.</p><p><blockquote>这种支持采取了各种形式。从削减增值税（如德国）到国家对雇员的直接帮助（如西班牙），再到直接向民众发放支票——应有尽有。最终，收入差距被填补了——在一些国家比其他国家更快。</blockquote></p><p>In the United States, most people earned even more during the pandemic than they did on their regular job. Because they had plenty of time to spend online, investing part of the stimulus came as a logical response to the lockdown. What started small transformed into a huge market-moving trend, as the retail trader now is responsible for wild market swings.</p><p><blockquote>在美国，大多数人在疫情期间的收入甚至比他们在正常工作中的收入还要高。因为他们有足够的时间上网，所以投资部分刺激措施是对封锁的合乎逻辑的反应。一开始很小的事情变成了一个巨大的市场移动趋势，因为散户交易者现在要对市场的剧烈波动负责。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66c132a0efc205eacad50657ca788c70\" tg-width=\"665\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Over 20% of Stimulus Checks Will Be Invested in the U.S. Stock Market</p><p><blockquote>超20%的刺激支票将投入美国股市</blockquote></p><p>A survey run by Deutsche Bank recently reveals that over 20% of the new $1.9 trillion “stimmy,” as retail traders call the fiscal stimulus, will find its way to the stock market. That is a nice push for the stock market, and the percentage is bigger among the age group 25-34. It shows that the new class of retail investors is here to stay, especially if we look at the younger group’s 40% planned stock market investment.</p><p><blockquote>德意志银行最近进行的一项调查显示，随着散户交易员看涨期权财政刺激，1.9万亿美元的新“刺激”中，超过20%将进入股市。这对股市来说是一个很好的推动，而且在25-34岁年龄组中这一比例更大。这表明新的散户阶层将继续存在，特别是如果我们看看年轻群体40%的计划股市投资。</blockquote></p><p>Indeed, since the second half of the last year, interest in stocktradinghas exploded in the United States. Retail trading literally took off, exceeding the volume of mutual funds and hedge funds combined.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，自去年下半年以来，美国对股票交易的兴趣激增。散户交易确实起飞了，超过了共同基金和对冲基金的总和。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa80060263afdbeb4a803d063ef42342\" tg-width=\"1263\" tg-height=\"868\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Moreover, retail traders suddenly realized the power of trading in unison. Wild market swings in some names (e.g., GameStop) in January of this year turned out to be driven by a group of millions of traders organized on a Reddit’s subgroup.</p><p><blockquote>而且，散户们突然异口同声地意识到了交易的力量。今年1月，一些公司（例如游戏驿站）的剧烈市场波动被证明是由Reddit子群上组织的数百万交易员推动的。</blockquote></p><p>Furthermore, their trading revealed deep knowledge of market mechanisms. They used a combination of direct common shares purchasing and call options to put pressure on hedge funds heavily exposed on the short side. The outcome? Short-sellers reported losses of hundreds of millions of dollars. Therefore, the retail trader is not represented by the baby boomer anymore, the passive investor interested in a buy and hold strategy.</p><p><blockquote>此外，他们的交易揭示了对市场机制的深刻了解。他们使用直接购买普通股和看涨期权期权的组合来向大量空头敞口的对冲基金施加压力。结果呢？卖空者报告损失数亿美元。因此，散户交易者不再以婴儿潮一代为代表，他们是对买入并持有策略感兴趣的被动投资者。</blockquote></p><p>Instead, the new retail trader is young, knowledgeable, sophisticated, and with a desire to learn. When you put some free money in the hands of such a trader, coordinating trading may result in wild stock market fluctuations.</p><p><blockquote>相反，新零售交易者年轻、知识渊博、老练，并且渴望学习。当你把一些闲钱放在这样的交易者手中时，协调交易可能会导致股市剧烈波动。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1615437168461","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Rise of the Retail Trader – How the Stimulus Money Finds Its Way to the Stock Market<blockquote>散户交易者的崛起——刺激资金如何进入股市</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Rise of the Retail Trader – How the Stimulus Money Finds Its Way to the Stock Market<blockquote>散户交易者的崛起——刺激资金如何进入股市</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">VantagePoint</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-11 12:33</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>During the 2020 pandemic, people around the world were forced to stay at home. Remote working became the norm, and, when not possible, the state intervened and supplemented the households’ income via fiscal support.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在2020年疫情期间，世界各地的人们被迫呆在家里。远程工作成为常态，在不可能的情况下，国家进行干预并通过财政支持补充家庭收入。</b></blockquote></p><p>The support took various forms. From cutting the VAT (e.g., in Germany) to direct help from the state towards the employees (i.e., Spain), to direct checks sent to the population – you name it. In the end, the income gap was filled – in some countries faster than in others.</p><p><blockquote>这种支持采取了各种形式。从削减增值税（如德国）到国家对雇员的直接帮助（如西班牙），再到直接向民众发放支票——应有尽有。最终，收入差距被填补了——在一些国家比其他国家更快。</blockquote></p><p>In the United States, most people earned even more during the pandemic than they did on their regular job. Because they had plenty of time to spend online, investing part of the stimulus came as a logical response to the lockdown. What started small transformed into a huge market-moving trend, as the retail trader now is responsible for wild market swings.</p><p><blockquote>在美国，大多数人在疫情期间的收入甚至比他们在正常工作中的收入还要高。因为他们有足够的时间上网，所以投资部分刺激措施是对封锁的合乎逻辑的反应。一开始很小的事情变成了一个巨大的市场移动趋势，因为散户交易者现在要对市场的剧烈波动负责。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66c132a0efc205eacad50657ca788c70\" tg-width=\"665\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Over 20% of Stimulus Checks Will Be Invested in the U.S. Stock Market</p><p><blockquote>超20%的刺激支票将投入美国股市</blockquote></p><p>A survey run by Deutsche Bank recently reveals that over 20% of the new $1.9 trillion “stimmy,” as retail traders call the fiscal stimulus, will find its way to the stock market. That is a nice push for the stock market, and the percentage is bigger among the age group 25-34. It shows that the new class of retail investors is here to stay, especially if we look at the younger group’s 40% planned stock market investment.</p><p><blockquote>德意志银行最近进行的一项调查显示，随着散户交易员看涨期权财政刺激，1.9万亿美元的新“刺激”中，超过20%将进入股市。这对股市来说是一个很好的推动，而且在25-34岁年龄组中这一比例更大。这表明新的散户阶层将继续存在，特别是如果我们看看年轻群体40%的计划股市投资。</blockquote></p><p>Indeed, since the second half of the last year, interest in stocktradinghas exploded in the United States. Retail trading literally took off, exceeding the volume of mutual funds and hedge funds combined.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，自去年下半年以来，美国对股票交易的兴趣激增。散户交易确实起飞了，超过了共同基金和对冲基金的总和。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa80060263afdbeb4a803d063ef42342\" tg-width=\"1263\" tg-height=\"868\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Moreover, retail traders suddenly realized the power of trading in unison. Wild market swings in some names (e.g., GameStop) in January of this year turned out to be driven by a group of millions of traders organized on a Reddit’s subgroup.</p><p><blockquote>而且，散户们突然异口同声地意识到了交易的力量。今年1月，一些公司（例如游戏驿站）的剧烈市场波动被证明是由Reddit子群上组织的数百万交易员推动的。</blockquote></p><p>Furthermore, their trading revealed deep knowledge of market mechanisms. They used a combination of direct common shares purchasing and call options to put pressure on hedge funds heavily exposed on the short side. The outcome? Short-sellers reported losses of hundreds of millions of dollars. Therefore, the retail trader is not represented by the baby boomer anymore, the passive investor interested in a buy and hold strategy.</p><p><blockquote>此外，他们的交易揭示了对市场机制的深刻了解。他们使用直接购买普通股和看涨期权期权的组合来向大量空头敞口的对冲基金施加压力。结果呢？卖空者报告损失数亿美元。因此，散户交易者不再以婴儿潮一代为代表，他们是对买入并持有策略感兴趣的被动投资者。</blockquote></p><p>Instead, the new retail trader is young, knowledgeable, sophisticated, and with a desire to learn. When you put some free money in the hands of such a trader, coordinating trading may result in wild stock market fluctuations.</p><p><blockquote>相反，新零售交易者年轻、知识渊博、老练，并且渴望学习。当你把一些闲钱放在这样的交易者手中时，协调交易可能会导致股市剧烈波动。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://vantagepointtrading.com/news/the-rise-of-the-retail-trader-how-the-stimulus-money-finds-its-way-to-the-stock-market/\">VantagePoint</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://vantagepointtrading.com/news/the-rise-of-the-retail-trader-how-the-stimulus-money-finds-its-way-to-the-stock-market/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166725903","content_text":"During the 2020 pandemic, people around the world were forced to stay at home. Remote working became the norm, and, when not possible, the state intervened and supplemented the households’ income via fiscal support.The support took various forms. From cutting the VAT (e.g., in Germany) to direct help from the state towards the employees (i.e., Spain), to direct checks sent to the population – you name it. In the end, the income gap was filled – in some countries faster than in others.In the United States, most people earned even more during the pandemic than they did on their regular job. Because they had plenty of time to spend online, investing part of the stimulus came as a logical response to the lockdown. What started small transformed into a huge market-moving trend, as the retail trader now is responsible for wild market swings.Over 20% of Stimulus Checks Will Be Invested in the U.S. Stock MarketA survey run by Deutsche Bank recently reveals that over 20% of the new $1.9 trillion “stimmy,” as retail traders call the fiscal stimulus, will find its way to the stock market. That is a nice push for the stock market, and the percentage is bigger among the age group 25-34. It shows that the new class of retail investors is here to stay, especially if we look at the younger group’s 40% planned stock market investment.Indeed, since the second half of the last year, interest in stocktradinghas exploded in the United States. Retail trading literally took off, exceeding the volume of mutual funds and hedge funds combined.Moreover, retail traders suddenly realized the power of trading in unison. Wild market swings in some names (e.g., GameStop) in January of this year turned out to be driven by a group of millions of traders organized on a Reddit’s subgroup.Furthermore, their trading revealed deep knowledge of market mechanisms. They used a combination of direct common shares purchasing and call options to put pressure on hedge funds heavily exposed on the short side. The outcome? Short-sellers reported losses of hundreds of millions of dollars. Therefore, the retail trader is not represented by the baby boomer anymore, the passive investor interested in a buy and hold strategy.Instead, the new retail trader is young, knowledgeable, sophisticated, and with a desire to learn. When you put some free money in the hands of such a trader, coordinating trading may result in wild stock market fluctuations.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":653,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":329164224,"gmtCreate":1615215674768,"gmtModify":1703485833399,"author":{"id":"3573788390439161","authorId":"3573788390439161","name":"30ad6cc","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573788390439161","idStr":"3573788390439161"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please help to like and comment, thanks!","listText":"Please help to like and comment, thanks!","text":"Please help to like and comment, thanks!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/329164224","repostId":"1166350867","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1166350867","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1615215209,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1166350867?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-08 22:53","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple stock sank more than 2%<blockquote>苹果股价下跌逾2%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166350867","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"Apple stock sank more than 2% on Monday.Rumors that Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL) will hold a special har","content":"<p>Apple stock sank more than 2%&nbsp;on&nbsp;Monday.Rumors that&nbsp;<b>Apple Inc</b> (NASDAQ: AAPL) will hold a special hardware event next month and release new iPad Pro models, iPad mini, and AirTags have been dismissed by a leading watcher of the tech giant, Apple Insider reported Sunday.</p><p><blockquote>苹果股价周一下跌逾2%。有传言称<b>苹果公司</b>据《苹果内幕》周日报道，（纳斯达克：AAPL）将于下个月举办一场特别的硬件活动，并发布新的iPad Pro型号、iPad mini和AirTags已被这家科技巨头的一位主要观察人士驳回。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b6f4d601a19418bfb008c7cc9bc7f52\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple stock sank more than 2%<blockquote>苹果股价下跌逾2%</blockquote></title>\n<style 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#7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple stock sank more than 2%<blockquote>苹果股价下跌逾2%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-03-08 22:53</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Apple stock sank more than 2%&nbsp;on&nbsp;Monday.Rumors that&nbsp;<b>Apple Inc</b> (NASDAQ: AAPL) will hold a special hardware event next month and release new iPad Pro models, iPad mini, and AirTags have been dismissed by a leading watcher of the tech giant, Apple Insider reported Sunday.</p><p><blockquote>苹果股价周一下跌逾2%。有传言称<b>苹果公司</b>据《苹果内幕》周日报道，（纳斯达克：AAPL）将于下个月举办一场特别的硬件活动，并发布新的iPad Pro型号、iPad mini和AirTags已被这家科技巨头的一位主要观察人士驳回。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b6f4d601a19418bfb008c7cc9bc7f52\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166350867","content_text":"Apple stock sank more than 2% on Monday.Rumors that Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL) will hold a special hardware event next month and release new iPad Pro models, iPad mini, and AirTags have been dismissed by a leading watcher of the tech giant, Apple Insider reported Sunday.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":516,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":344767194,"gmtCreate":1618444648118,"gmtModify":1634292938669,"author":{"id":"3573788390439161","authorId":"3573788390439161","name":"30ad6cc","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573788390439161","idStr":"3573788390439161"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like and comment","listText":"Pls like and comment","text":"Pls like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/344767194","repostId":"1189551384","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":491,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":100043825,"gmtCreate":1619570969867,"gmtModify":1634211693910,"author":{"id":"3573788390439161","authorId":"3573788390439161","name":"30ad6cc","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573788390439161","idStr":"3573788390439161"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok can","listText":"Ok can","text":"Ok can","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/100043825","repostId":"1157918353","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1157918353","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1619566409,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1157918353?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-28 07:33","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Microsoft sales grow on cloud strength, shares dip on heightened valuation<blockquote>微软销售额因云实力而增长，股价因估值上升而下跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157918353","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Microsoft exceeded analysts’ estimates on the top and bottom lines, as well as revenue guidance.Windows revenue growth from device makers was higher than the company had predicted.Azure cloud revenue growth was flat from the prior quarter.Microsoft shares moved 2.6% lower in extended trading Tuesday after the software maker announced fiscal third-quarter earnings and quarterly revenue guidance that came in stronger than analysts had expected. The company’s operating margin narrowed somewhat as c","content":"<p><b>KEY POINTS</b></p><p><blockquote><b>要点</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Microsoft exceeded analysts’ estimates on the top and bottom lines, as well as revenue guidance.</li>  <li>Windows revenue growth from device makers was higher than the company had predicted.</li>  <li>Azure cloud revenue growth was flat from the prior quarter.</li> </ul> Microsoft&nbsp;shares moved 2.6% lower in extended trading Tuesday after the software maker announced fiscal third-quarter earnings and quarterly revenue guidance that came in stronger than analysts had expected. The company’s operating margin narrowed somewhat as cloud became a larger part of its business.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>微软的营收和利润以及收入指引超出了分析师的预期。</li><li>来自设备制造商的Windows收入增长高于该公司的预期。</li><li>Azure云收入增长与上一季度持平。</li></ul>软件制造商微软公布了强于分析师预期的第三财季盈利和季度收入指引后，该公司股价周二在盘后交易中下跌2.6%。随着云计算成为其业务的重要组成部分，该公司的营业利润率有所收窄。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37e56904b785cd612b360cb4662adcab\" tg-width=\"1302\" tg-height=\"833\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Here’s how the company did:</p><p><blockquote>该公司的做法如下：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Earnings:</b>$1.95 per share, adjusted, vs. $1.78 per share as expected by analysts, according to Refinitiv.</li>  <li><b>Revenue:</b>$41.71 billion, vs. $41.03 billion as expected by analysts, according to Refinitiv.</li> </ul> The software and hardware maker posted 19% annualized revenue growth for the quarter, which ended March 31, according to a&nbsp;statement. That’s the biggest quarterly increase the company has posted since 2018, thanks in part to&nbsp;gains in PC sales&nbsp;resulting from coronavirus-driven shortages last year.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>收益：</b>根据Refinitiv的数据，调整后每股1.95美元，而分析师预期为每股1.78美元。</li><li><b>收入：</b>根据Refinitiv的数据，为417.1亿美元，而分析师预期为410.3亿美元。</li></ul>根据一份声明，这家软件和硬件制造商公布截至3月31日的季度年化收入增长19%。这是该公司自2018年以来最大的季度增幅，部分原因是去年冠状病毒导致的短缺导致PC销量增长。</blockquote></p><p> The company said its Azure public cloud, which competes with market leader&nbsp;Amazon&nbsp;Web Services, grew 50%, faster than the 46% growth analysts had expected, according to a CNBC review of 14 equity research notes. In&nbsp;the prior quarter&nbsp;Azure revenue grew 50%. Microsoft does not disclose Azure revenue in dollars.</p><p><blockquote>根据CNBC对14份股票研究报告的评论，该公司表示，与市场领导者亚马逊网络服务竞争的Azure公共云增长了50%，快于分析师预期的46%增长。上一季度，Azure收入增长了50%。微软没有披露Azure的美元收入。</blockquote></p><p> With respect to guidance, Microsoft is expecting $43.6 billion to $44.5 billion in revenue in the fiscal fourth quarter, said Amy Hood, Microsoft’s finance chief, on a conference call with analysts. At the middle of the range that would represent 16% growth, more than the $42.98 billion consensus estimate among analysts polled by Refinitiv.</p><p><blockquote>微软首席财务官Amy Hood在与分析师举行的电话会议上表示，关于指引，微软预计第四财季营收为436亿至445亿美元。处于16%增长区间的中间，高于Refinitiv调查的分析师普遍预期的429.8亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04deaac8d015743ca14f06c8b77bd26e\" tg-width=\"1910\" tg-height=\"1549\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Microsoft’s Intelligent Cloud segment delivered $15.12 billion in revenue in the fiscal third quarter. That was up 23% year over year and above the FactSet consensus estimate of $14.92 billion. Intelligent Cloud contains Azure, Windows Server, SQL Server, Visual Studio, GitHub and Enterprise Services.</p><p><blockquote>微软智能云部门第三财季实现营收151.2亿美元。这一数字同比增长23%，高于FactSet 149.2亿美元的共识预期。智能云包含Azure、Windows Server、SQL Server、Visual Studio、GitHub和企业服务。</blockquote></p><p> The Productivity and Business Processes segment, containing Office, Dynamics and LinkedIn, contributed $13.55 billion in revenue, up 15% and more than the $13.49 billion FactSet consensus. The Teams chat and calling app reached 145 million daily active users, up from&nbsp;115 million&nbsp;in October, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella said on the call.</p><p><blockquote>包括Office、Dynamics和LinkedIn在内的生产力和业务流程部门贡献了135.5亿美元的收入，增长了15%，超过了FactSet预期的134.9亿美元。微软首席执行官Satya Nadella在看涨期权上表示，Teams聊天和通话应用程序的日活跃用户达到1.45亿，高于10月份的1.15亿。</blockquote></p><p> The company’s More Personal Computing unit, which includes Windows, gaming, devices and search, came up with $13.04 billion in revenue. That was up almost 19% and higher than the $12.55 billion consensus. Technology research company Gartner&nbsp;estimated&nbsp;earlier this month that PC manufacturers shipped nearly 70 million units in the quarter, 32% more than in the year-ago quarter, the fastest growth since Gartner started tracking the PC market in 2000.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的更多个人计算部门，包括Windows、游戏、设备和搜索，收入为130.4亿美元。这一数字增长了近19%，高于125.5亿美元的共识。技术研究公司Gartner本月早些时候估计，PC制造商本季度出货量接近7000万台，比去年同期增长32%，这是Gartner自2000年开始跟踪PC市场以来的最快增长。</blockquote></p><p> That benefits Microsoft’s sales of Windows licenses to PC makers, which were up 10%. There are now over 1.3 billion monthly active devices running the Windows 10 operating system, Nadella said.</p><p><blockquote>这有利于微软向个人电脑制造商销售Windows许可证，增长了10%。纳德拉表示，现在每月有超过13亿台活跃设备运行Windows 10操作系统。</blockquote></p><p> The outcome was greater than Microsoft itself had forecast. In January, Hood called for Windows license revenue from device makers to be up in the low single digits.</p><p><blockquote>结果比微软自己预测的要好。一月份，胡德呼吁设备制造商的Windows许可收入保持在低个位数。</blockquote></p><p> The PC market endured “significant ongoing constraints in the supply chain,” Hood said on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>胡德周二表示，个人电脑市场经历了“供应链中持续的重大限制”。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time, the gross margin for Microsoft’s broad Commercial Cloud category of products — including Azure, commercial subscriptions to the Office 365 productivity bundle, cloud-based Dynamics 365 enterprise applications and commercial parts of LinkedIn — narrowed to 70% from 71%. The number is important to investors who want to see that Microsoft can continue to make Azure more profitable.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，微软广泛的商业云类别产品（包括Azure、Office 365生产力捆绑包的商业订阅、基于云的Dynamics 365企业应用程序和LinkedIn的商业部分）的毛利率从71%收窄至70%。对于希望看到微软能够继续让Azure盈利更高的投资者来说，这个数字很重要。</blockquote></p><p> The operating margin for the Intelligent Cloud segment that includes Azure also narrowed to 42.5% from about 44.5%. Microsoft’s overall operating margin came in at 40.9%, down from 41.6%.</p><p><blockquote>包括Azure在内的智能云部门的营业利润率也从约44.5%收窄至42.5%。微软的整体营业利润率为40.9%，低于41.6%。</blockquote></p><p> Microsoft&nbsp;said&nbsp;in the quarter it had won a U.S. Army contract worth up to $21.9 billion over a decade for augmented reality headsets based on its latest HoloLens device. The company also&nbsp;issued patches&nbsp;to address vulnerabilities in its Exchange Server on-premises email and calendar software that Chinese hackers exploited. It also&nbsp;closed&nbsp;the $8.1 billion acquisition of video game maker ZeniMax Media.</p><p><blockquote>微软表示，本季度它赢得了美国。陆军合同在十年内价值高达219亿美元，用于基于其最新HoloLens设备的增强现实耳机。该公司还发布了补丁，以解决其Exchange Server内部电子邮件和日历软件中被中国黑客利用的漏洞。它还完成了对视频游戏制造商ZeniMax Media的81亿美元收购。</blockquote></p><p> Notwithstanding the after-hours move, Microsoft shares are up 18% year to date, compared with a gain of around 12% for the S&amp;P 500 over the same time period.</p><p><blockquote>尽管盘后出现波动，微软股价今年迄今仍上涨了18%，而标普500同期的涨幅约为12%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Microsoft sales grow on cloud strength, shares dip on heightened valuation<blockquote>微软销售额因云实力而增长，股价因估值上升而下跌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMicrosoft sales grow on cloud strength, shares dip on heightened valuation<blockquote>微软销售额因云实力而增长，股价因估值上升而下跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-04-28 07:33</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>KEY POINTS</b></p><p><blockquote><b>要点</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Microsoft exceeded analysts’ estimates on the top and bottom lines, as well as revenue guidance.</li>  <li>Windows revenue growth from device makers was higher than the company had predicted.</li>  <li>Azure cloud revenue growth was flat from the prior quarter.</li> </ul> Microsoft&nbsp;shares moved 2.6% lower in extended trading Tuesday after the software maker announced fiscal third-quarter earnings and quarterly revenue guidance that came in stronger than analysts had expected. The company’s operating margin narrowed somewhat as cloud became a larger part of its business.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>微软的营收和利润以及收入指引超出了分析师的预期。</li><li>来自设备制造商的Windows收入增长高于该公司的预期。</li><li>Azure云收入增长与上一季度持平。</li></ul>软件制造商微软公布了强于分析师预期的第三财季盈利和季度收入指引后，该公司股价周二在盘后交易中下跌2.6%。随着云计算成为其业务的重要组成部分，该公司的营业利润率有所收窄。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37e56904b785cd612b360cb4662adcab\" tg-width=\"1302\" tg-height=\"833\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Here’s how the company did:</p><p><blockquote>该公司的做法如下：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Earnings:</b>$1.95 per share, adjusted, vs. $1.78 per share as expected by analysts, according to Refinitiv.</li>  <li><b>Revenue:</b>$41.71 billion, vs. $41.03 billion as expected by analysts, according to Refinitiv.</li> </ul> The software and hardware maker posted 19% annualized revenue growth for the quarter, which ended March 31, according to a&nbsp;statement. That’s the biggest quarterly increase the company has posted since 2018, thanks in part to&nbsp;gains in PC sales&nbsp;resulting from coronavirus-driven shortages last year.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>收益：</b>根据Refinitiv的数据，调整后每股1.95美元，而分析师预期为每股1.78美元。</li><li><b>收入：</b>根据Refinitiv的数据，为417.1亿美元，而分析师预期为410.3亿美元。</li></ul>根据一份声明，这家软件和硬件制造商公布截至3月31日的季度年化收入增长19%。这是该公司自2018年以来最大的季度增幅，部分原因是去年冠状病毒导致的短缺导致PC销量增长。</blockquote></p><p> The company said its Azure public cloud, which competes with market leader&nbsp;Amazon&nbsp;Web Services, grew 50%, faster than the 46% growth analysts had expected, according to a CNBC review of 14 equity research notes. In&nbsp;the prior quarter&nbsp;Azure revenue grew 50%. Microsoft does not disclose Azure revenue in dollars.</p><p><blockquote>根据CNBC对14份股票研究报告的评论，该公司表示，与市场领导者亚马逊网络服务竞争的Azure公共云增长了50%，快于分析师预期的46%增长。上一季度，Azure收入增长了50%。微软没有披露Azure的美元收入。</blockquote></p><p> With respect to guidance, Microsoft is expecting $43.6 billion to $44.5 billion in revenue in the fiscal fourth quarter, said Amy Hood, Microsoft’s finance chief, on a conference call with analysts. At the middle of the range that would represent 16% growth, more than the $42.98 billion consensus estimate among analysts polled by Refinitiv.</p><p><blockquote>微软首席财务官Amy Hood在与分析师举行的电话会议上表示，关于指引，微软预计第四财季营收为436亿至445亿美元。处于16%增长区间的中间，高于Refinitiv调查的分析师普遍预期的429.8亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04deaac8d015743ca14f06c8b77bd26e\" tg-width=\"1910\" tg-height=\"1549\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Microsoft’s Intelligent Cloud segment delivered $15.12 billion in revenue in the fiscal third quarter. That was up 23% year over year and above the FactSet consensus estimate of $14.92 billion. Intelligent Cloud contains Azure, Windows Server, SQL Server, Visual Studio, GitHub and Enterprise Services.</p><p><blockquote>微软智能云部门第三财季实现营收151.2亿美元。这一数字同比增长23%，高于FactSet 149.2亿美元的共识预期。智能云包含Azure、Windows Server、SQL Server、Visual Studio、GitHub和企业服务。</blockquote></p><p> The Productivity and Business Processes segment, containing Office, Dynamics and LinkedIn, contributed $13.55 billion in revenue, up 15% and more than the $13.49 billion FactSet consensus. The Teams chat and calling app reached 145 million daily active users, up from&nbsp;115 million&nbsp;in October, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella said on the call.</p><p><blockquote>包括Office、Dynamics和LinkedIn在内的生产力和业务流程部门贡献了135.5亿美元的收入，增长了15%，超过了FactSet预期的134.9亿美元。微软首席执行官Satya Nadella在看涨期权上表示，Teams聊天和通话应用程序的日活跃用户达到1.45亿，高于10月份的1.15亿。</blockquote></p><p> The company’s More Personal Computing unit, which includes Windows, gaming, devices and search, came up with $13.04 billion in revenue. That was up almost 19% and higher than the $12.55 billion consensus. Technology research company Gartner&nbsp;estimated&nbsp;earlier this month that PC manufacturers shipped nearly 70 million units in the quarter, 32% more than in the year-ago quarter, the fastest growth since Gartner started tracking the PC market in 2000.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的更多个人计算部门，包括Windows、游戏、设备和搜索，收入为130.4亿美元。这一数字增长了近19%，高于125.5亿美元的共识。技术研究公司Gartner本月早些时候估计，PC制造商本季度出货量接近7000万台，比去年同期增长32%，这是Gartner自2000年开始跟踪PC市场以来的最快增长。</blockquote></p><p> That benefits Microsoft’s sales of Windows licenses to PC makers, which were up 10%. There are now over 1.3 billion monthly active devices running the Windows 10 operating system, Nadella said.</p><p><blockquote>这有利于微软向个人电脑制造商销售Windows许可证，增长了10%。纳德拉表示，现在每月有超过13亿台活跃设备运行Windows 10操作系统。</blockquote></p><p> The outcome was greater than Microsoft itself had forecast. In January, Hood called for Windows license revenue from device makers to be up in the low single digits.</p><p><blockquote>结果比微软自己预测的要好。一月份，胡德呼吁设备制造商的Windows许可收入保持在低个位数。</blockquote></p><p> The PC market endured “significant ongoing constraints in the supply chain,” Hood said on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>胡德周二表示，个人电脑市场经历了“供应链中持续的重大限制”。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time, the gross margin for Microsoft’s broad Commercial Cloud category of products — including Azure, commercial subscriptions to the Office 365 productivity bundle, cloud-based Dynamics 365 enterprise applications and commercial parts of LinkedIn — narrowed to 70% from 71%. The number is important to investors who want to see that Microsoft can continue to make Azure more profitable.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，微软广泛的商业云类别产品（包括Azure、Office 365生产力捆绑包的商业订阅、基于云的Dynamics 365企业应用程序和LinkedIn的商业部分）的毛利率从71%收窄至70%。对于希望看到微软能够继续让Azure盈利更高的投资者来说，这个数字很重要。</blockquote></p><p> The operating margin for the Intelligent Cloud segment that includes Azure also narrowed to 42.5% from about 44.5%. Microsoft’s overall operating margin came in at 40.9%, down from 41.6%.</p><p><blockquote>包括Azure在内的智能云部门的营业利润率也从约44.5%收窄至42.5%。微软的整体营业利润率为40.9%，低于41.6%。</blockquote></p><p> Microsoft&nbsp;said&nbsp;in the quarter it had won a U.S. Army contract worth up to $21.9 billion over a decade for augmented reality headsets based on its latest HoloLens device. The company also&nbsp;issued patches&nbsp;to address vulnerabilities in its Exchange Server on-premises email and calendar software that Chinese hackers exploited. It also&nbsp;closed&nbsp;the $8.1 billion acquisition of video game maker ZeniMax Media.</p><p><blockquote>微软表示，本季度它赢得了美国。陆军合同在十年内价值高达219亿美元，用于基于其最新HoloLens设备的增强现实耳机。该公司还发布了补丁，以解决其Exchange Server内部电子邮件和日历软件中被中国黑客利用的漏洞。它还完成了对视频游戏制造商ZeniMax Media的81亿美元收购。</blockquote></p><p> Notwithstanding the after-hours move, Microsoft shares are up 18% year to date, compared with a gain of around 12% for the S&amp;P 500 over the same time period.</p><p><blockquote>尽管盘后出现波动，微软股价今年迄今仍上涨了18%，而标普500同期的涨幅约为12%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157918353","content_text":"KEY POINTS\n\nMicrosoft exceeded analysts’ estimates on the top and bottom lines, as well as revenue guidance.\nWindows revenue growth from device makers was higher than the company had predicted.\nAzure cloud revenue growth was flat from the prior quarter.\n\nMicrosoft shares moved 2.6% lower in extended trading Tuesday after the software maker announced fiscal third-quarter earnings and quarterly revenue guidance that came in stronger than analysts had expected. The company’s operating margin narrowed somewhat as cloud became a larger part of its business.\n\nHere’s how the company did:\n\nEarnings:$1.95 per share, adjusted, vs. $1.78 per share as expected by analysts, according to Refinitiv.\nRevenue:$41.71 billion, vs. $41.03 billion as expected by analysts, according to Refinitiv.\n\nThe software and hardware maker posted 19% annualized revenue growth for the quarter, which ended March 31, according to a statement. That’s the biggest quarterly increase the company has posted since 2018, thanks in part to gains in PC sales resulting from coronavirus-driven shortages last year.\nThe company said its Azure public cloud, which competes with market leader Amazon Web Services, grew 50%, faster than the 46% growth analysts had expected, according to a CNBC review of 14 equity research notes. In the prior quarter Azure revenue grew 50%. Microsoft does not disclose Azure revenue in dollars.\nWith respect to guidance, Microsoft is expecting $43.6 billion to $44.5 billion in revenue in the fiscal fourth quarter, said Amy Hood, Microsoft’s finance chief, on a conference call with analysts. At the middle of the range that would represent 16% growth, more than the $42.98 billion consensus estimate among analysts polled by Refinitiv.\n\nMicrosoft’s Intelligent Cloud segment delivered $15.12 billion in revenue in the fiscal third quarter. That was up 23% year over year and above the FactSet consensus estimate of $14.92 billion. Intelligent Cloud contains Azure, Windows Server, SQL Server, Visual Studio, GitHub and Enterprise Services.\nThe Productivity and Business Processes segment, containing Office, Dynamics and LinkedIn, contributed $13.55 billion in revenue, up 15% and more than the $13.49 billion FactSet consensus. The Teams chat and calling app reached 145 million daily active users, up from 115 million in October, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella said on the call.\nThe company’s More Personal Computing unit, which includes Windows, gaming, devices and search, came up with $13.04 billion in revenue. That was up almost 19% and higher than the $12.55 billion consensus. Technology research company Gartner estimated earlier this month that PC manufacturers shipped nearly 70 million units in the quarter, 32% more than in the year-ago quarter, the fastest growth since Gartner started tracking the PC market in 2000.\nThat benefits Microsoft’s sales of Windows licenses to PC makers, which were up 10%. There are now over 1.3 billion monthly active devices running the Windows 10 operating system, Nadella said.\nThe outcome was greater than Microsoft itself had forecast. In January, Hood called for Windows license revenue from device makers to be up in the low single digits.\nThe PC market endured “significant ongoing constraints in the supply chain,” Hood said on Tuesday.\nAt the same time, the gross margin for Microsoft’s broad Commercial Cloud category of products — including Azure, commercial subscriptions to the Office 365 productivity bundle, cloud-based Dynamics 365 enterprise applications and commercial parts of LinkedIn — narrowed to 70% from 71%. The number is important to investors who want to see that Microsoft can continue to make Azure more profitable.\nThe operating margin for the Intelligent Cloud segment that includes Azure also narrowed to 42.5% from about 44.5%. Microsoft’s overall operating margin came in at 40.9%, down from 41.6%.\nMicrosoft said in the quarter it had won a U.S. Army contract worth up to $21.9 billion over a decade for augmented reality headsets based on its latest HoloLens device. The company also issued patches to address vulnerabilities in its Exchange Server on-premises email and calendar software that Chinese hackers exploited. It also closed the $8.1 billion acquisition of video game maker ZeniMax Media.\nNotwithstanding the after-hours move, Microsoft shares are up 18% year to date, compared with a gain of around 12% for the S&P 500 over the same time period.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MSFT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1196,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":323791128,"gmtCreate":1615372961864,"gmtModify":1703488048850,"author":{"id":"3573788390439161","authorId":"3573788390439161","name":"30ad6cc","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573788390439161","idStr":"3573788390439161"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please help to like and comment, thanks!","listText":"Please help to like and comment, thanks!","text":"Please help to like and comment, thanks!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/323791128","repostId":"1162030727","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1162030727","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615371076,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1162030727?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-10 18:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Equity-Gold Price Conundrum, Part 1: The Great Batsby<blockquote>股票-黄金价格难题，第1部分：伟大的蝙蝠侠</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1162030727","media":"zerohedge","summary":"The relentless rally in equity markets has pushed valuations to extreme levels based on traditional ","content":"<p>The relentless rally in equity markets has pushed valuations to extreme levels based on traditional metrics. In this report, we analyze the two common arguments made by equity bulls on why this time is different and current valuations are justified. We find that either gold or equities are currently mispriced, as, a) both arguments would imply that gold should outperform stocks and b) if neither of the scenarios play out, equities are due for a substantial correction.</p><p><blockquote>根据传统指标，股市的持续上涨已将估值推至极端水平。在本报告中，我们分析了股票多头提出的两个常见论点，即为什么这次不同以及当前估值是合理的。我们发现，黄金或股票目前的定价都是错误的，因为a)这两种论点都意味着黄金的表现应该优于股票，b)如果这两种情况都没有发生，股票将出现大幅调整。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95f7609bf84bf26bd5d2443fa9a7de86\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"445\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Amidst the global COVID-19 pandemic, equities had staggering rally over the past 12 months. The S&amp;P500 almost doubled in less than a year from a low of 2240 on March 23, 2020 to currently 3860 at the time of writing. In addition, some narrower indices have done even better. Particularly certain technology stocks have relentlessly risen amidst an environment of economic stress.</p><p><blockquote>在全球新冠肺炎疫情中，股市在过去12个月中出现了惊人的反弹。标准普尔500指数在不到一年的时间里几乎翻了一番，从2020年3月23日的低点2240点升至撰写本文时目前的3860点。此外，一些较窄的指数表现甚至更好。尤其是某些科技股在经济压力的环境下持续上涨。</blockquote></p><p>This has led to a sharp increase in the equities-to-gold price ratio (see Exhibit 1) even as economic growth has collapsed while the Fed increased its balance sheet at an unprecedented level.</p><p><blockquote>这导致股票与黄金的价格比率急剧上升（见图表1），尽管经济增长已经崩溃，而美联储以前所未有的水平增加了资产负债表。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a828b10b92375dfb19347e6c59314c83\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>This increase in the equities-to-gold-ratio is not caused by gold performing poorly as prices for the yellow metal are up12% since the end of 2019. It’s simply a consequence of equities’ doing really well. But equity valuations according to traditional metrics have now approached extreme levels. For example, the total market cap to GDP (Buffet indicator) is currently at 193% (see exhibit 2), the highest on record, 50% above the peak during the dot.com bubble.</p><p><blockquote>股票与黄金比率的上升并不是由黄金表现不佳造成的，因为自2019年底以来，黄金价格上涨了12%。这只是股市表现良好的结果。但根据传统指标，股票估值现已接近极端水平。例如，总市值占GDP（巴菲特指标）目前为193%（见图表2），为有记录以来的最高水平，比互联网泡沫期间的峰值高出50%。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e64899d2c53b18cc97b2dce33717c9af\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Moreover, global equities to GDP are also extremely high, currently at &gt;120% (see exhibit 3).</p><p><blockquote>此外，全球股票占GDP的比例也极高，目前超过120%（见图表3）。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef426becc1777204ae2f18e3c290e2e6\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"436\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The Cyclically Adjusted Price Earnings Ratio, or CAPE, a measure developed by Robert Schiller, is also flashing red with the second highest reading in history going back to the late 1900s (see exhibit 4).</p><p><blockquote>周期性调整市盈率（CAPE）是罗伯特·席勒（Robert Schiller）开发的一种衡量标准，也呈红色，其读数是自1900年代末以来历史上第二高的读数（见图表4）。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8cc92db52653acc17b59de9311c17bf0\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"442\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Price to sales ratios also hit a record high (see Exhibit 5).</p><p><blockquote>市销率也创下历史新高（见图表5）。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a119fa360112d18ced5d8efff557ebea\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"436\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">There are other indicators that suggest that equity prices have detached from underlying fundamentals. The put / call ratio on the CBOE has now reached the levels of the dot.com bubble (see Exhibit 6).</p><p><blockquote>还有其他指标表明股价已经脱离了基本面。芝加哥期权交易所的看跌/看涨期权比率现在已经达到了互联网泡沫的水平（见图表6）。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/462aa5d4dee82e50792b2a4f6bbd70f8\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">We also saw an unprecedented inflow of new market participants. People with very little or no market exp4erience opened online brokerage accounts at an unprecedented speed during the global lockdowns. More than 10 million Americans opened a trading account in 2020 according to the Wall Street Journal.&nbsp; According to CNBC, ten percent of Americans bought a stock for the first time in the past 12 months, and a staggering twenty-two percent of Gen Z (currently 6-24 years old) opened a stock market account in the last 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>我们还看到前所未有的新市场参与者流入。在全球封锁期间，很少或没有市场经验的人以前所未有的速度开设了在线经纪账户。据《华尔街日报》报道，2020年有超过1000万美国人开设了交易账户。据美国消费者新闻与商业频道报道，10%的美国人在过去12个月内首次购买股票，惊人的22%的Z世代（目前6-24岁）在过去12个月内开设了股市账户。</blockquote></p><p>And stocks are not the only assets that are skyrocketing. Cryptocurrencies, which since 2017 had temporarily lost their luster, are rallying at breakneck pace since the outbreak of the pandemic (see exhibit 7).</p><p><blockquote>股票并不是唯一暴涨的资产。自2017年以来暂时失去光彩的加密货币，自疫情爆发以来正在以极快的速度反弹（见图表7）。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46a4f01c4a7404c0a7b196d39dac0a78\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"424\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Judged on only those metrics, stock markets are clearly in a bubble. But is this time maybe really different as the bulls argue? In our view, there are only two ways that current stock prices could indeed be justified;</p><p><blockquote>仅从这些指标来看，股市显然处于泡沫之中。但这一次真的像多头所说的那样不同吗？在我们看来，只有两种方式可以证明当前的股价是合理的：</blockquote></p><p></p><p><b>1. The great Gatsby:</b>The pandemic, as negative as it was for economic activity near term, will be followed by a period of unprecedented economic expansion. Hence, GDP will rapidly rise and close the gap to equity prices. <b>2. The great inflation:</b>Stocks simply price in future inflation that eventually will come on the back of decades of ultra-low rates and central bank balance sheet expansionWe will take a close look at the validity of those scenarios below. As we will show, these scenarios would require that we enter a multi-year period of extreme economic growth or inflation or a mix of both.&nbsp; However, we will show that gold should outperform stocks in either scenario. And if neither scenario comes true, then stock markets are due for a substantial correction. In that scenario, we would expect central banks to eventually intervene, which should ultimately also benefit gold. Hence, the fact that stocks have vastly outperformed gold over the past months is somewhat of a conundrum. But we are confident that this will reverse going forward.</p><p><blockquote><b>1.了不起的盖茨比：</b>尽管疫情在短期内对经济活动不利，但接下来将是一段前所未有的经济扩张时期。因此，GDP将迅速上升，并缩小与股票价格的差距。<b>2.大通货膨胀：</b>股票只是对未来的通胀进行定价，而未来的通胀最终将在数十年的超低利率和央行资产负债表扩张的背景下出现。我们将在下面仔细研究这些情景的有效性。正如我们将展示的，这些情景将要求我们进入一个多年的极端经济增长或通货膨胀或两者兼而有之的时期。然而，我们将表明，在这两种情况下，黄金的表现都应该优于股票。如果这两种情况都没有实现，那么股市将出现大幅调整。在这种情况下，我们预计央行最终会进行干预，这最终也应该有利于黄金。因此，过去几个月股票的表现大大优于黄金的事实在某种程度上是一个难题。但我们相信，这种情况将在未来逆转。</blockquote></p><p><b>Scenario one: The great Gatsby</b></p><p><blockquote><b>场景一：了不起的盖茨比</b></blockquote></p><p>Proponents of the great Gatsby scenario argue that, once the COVID19 pandemic is behind us as enough people are vaccinated and normality returns, economic activity will explode. The argumentation goes that there is a lot of pent-up demand as people were forced to save during the lockdowns and are eager to consume. This demand will be further fueled by stimulus checks (potentially in perpetuity, UBI). At the same time, governments around the world are rolling out huge green infrastructure programs, partially to combat climate change and partially to jump-start the economy.</p><p><blockquote>《了不起的盖茨比》的支持者认为，一旦COVID19疫情成为过去，有足够多的人接种疫苗，恢复正常，经济活动将会爆发。这种观点认为，由于人们在封锁期间被迫储蓄并渴望消费，因此存在大量被压抑的需求。刺激检查（可能是永久性的，UBI）将进一步推动这种需求。与此同时，世界各国政府正在推出庞大的绿色基础设施项目，部分是为了应对气候变化，部分是为了提振经济。</blockquote></p><p>While some of these deliberations have merit, there are a few important caveats. In our view, it is extremely unlikely for the economy to simply pick up where we left even if the current measures intended to contain the pandemic are completely removed. Many small businesses have closed forever or are about to close in the near term. The surviving businesses are aggressively cutting costs by a) laying off staff and b) trimming production. The former will impact on consumer demand going forward, the latter will impact on the businesses that are further up in the production chain. While there may be pent-up consumer demand from those who still have a job and saved a lot of money during lockdowns, there are also likely to be a lot of pent-up bankruptcies as many businesses have simply survived so far due to government intervention. Eventually many of those businesses will close. This is especially true in many European economies where governments de facto paid companies not to fire people.</p><p><blockquote>虽然其中一些审议有其优点，但也有一些重要的警告。我们认为，即使目前旨在遏制疫情的措施完全取消，经济也极不可能简单地从我们离开的地方恢复过来。许多小企业已经永远关闭或即将在短期内关闭。幸存的企业正在通过a)裁员和b)削减产量来积极削减成本。前者将影响未来的消费者需求，后者将影响生产链更上游的企业。虽然那些仍然有工作并在封锁期间存了很多钱的人可能会有被压抑的消费者需求，但也可能会有很多被压抑的破产，因为许多企业迄今为止只是由于政府干预而幸存下来。最终，许多这样的企业将会关闭。在许多欧洲经济体尤其如此，在这些经济体，政府实际上付钱给公司不要解雇员工。</blockquote></p><p>The problem is compounded by the fact that the economy was already stuttering long before Coronavirus became a household name. The Fed had to aggressively reverse its hiking cycle already by 3Q2019 as markets started to turn sour. We believe that we are close to or already in a recession by late 2019. Hence, a simple return to the pre-COVID economy would mean back to a “normal” recession. Thus, the drivers for this apparent future multi-year super growth cycle have to be strong enough to offset these bearish factors as well.</p><p><blockquote>早在冠状病毒成为家喻户晓的名字之前，经济就已经陷入困境，这一事实使问题变得更加复杂。随着市场开始恶化，美联储不得不在2019年第三季度之前大幅扭转加息周期。我们认为，到2019年底，我们将接近或已经陷入衰退。因此，简单地回到COVID之前的经济将意味着回到“正常”衰退。因此，这个明显的未来多年超级增长周期的驱动力必须足够强大，以抵消这些看跌因素。</blockquote></p><p>Then there is the magnitude by how much the economy would have to expand to justify these kind of equity valuations. If you take a simple metric like market cap to GDP, then GDP would have to almost double from current levels to be in line with historical averages. That implies a nominal GDP of $40tn, or 86% above the levels before COVID (average 2019). Granted that market cap to GDP was already inflated to around 1.2 on average in the ten years prior to the pandemic due to ultra-low interest rates, a return to that average would still require nominal GDP to rise to $35tn or 63% from pre-COVID levels.</p><p><blockquote>然后是经济必须扩张多少才能证明这种股票估值的合理性。如果你用一个简单的指标来衡量GDP，那么GDP必须比当前水平翻一番才能与历史平均水平保持一致。这意味着名义GDP为40万亿美元，比COVID之前的水平（2019年平均水平）高出86%。尽管由于超低利率，在大流行之前的十年里，市值与GDP之比已经平均膨胀至1.2左右，但要恢复到这一平均水平，仍需要名义GDP升至35万亿美元，即较前水平的63%。</blockquote></p><p>Even with a staggering 5% annual GDP growth and 2% inflation, it would still take more than seven years to get there. Are stocks really pricing in the year 2028 with 0% discount rate? And if so, what would be the fundamental driver to push stocks even higher from here? &nbsp;And is there even historic precedent for these kind of growth numbers? In the post WWII period, there have been only two instances where economic expansion was that high for a prolonged period (see Exhibit 8).</p><p><blockquote>即使GDP年增长率达到惊人的5%，通货膨胀率达到2%，仍需要七年多的时间才能实现。2028年股票真的以0%贴现率定价吗？如果是这样，推动股市进一步走高的根本驱动力是什么？这种增长数字有历史先例吗？在二战后时期，只有两次经济扩张在很长一段时间内如此之高（见图表8）。</blockquote></p><p>After WWII ended, the US saw a few years of moderate growth as government spending plummeted, followed by very high growth rates at around 6.9% between 1949 and 1953. This was possible as the US was one of the very few countries where none of the infrastructure had been destroyed and the rest of the world had to be rebuilt. However mathematically, even a repetition of the 1949-53 growth period over the coming years would not be enough to justify current stock prices as it lasted for “only” four years before the US fell into another recession.</p><p><blockquote>二战结束后，随着政府支出暴跌，美国经历了几年的温和增长，随后在1949年至1953年间实现了约6.9%的高增长率。这是可能的，因为美国是极少数基础设施没有被摧毁、世界其他地区必须重建的国家之一。然而，从数学上讲，即使在未来几年重复1949-53年的增长期也不足以证明当前股价的合理性，因为在美国陷入另一场衰退之前，它“只”持续了四年。</blockquote></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0e3916e88c1ee473c5ea235b229f969\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">From 1958-1969, the US economy was able to grow close to 5% with a brief monetary recession in 1960. In our view, this 1960s growth period is the only one that reflects the magnitude and length needed to get US GDP back in line with current equity prices. However, the economic environment of the 1960s looked very different from where we are now. More specifically, the US exited WWII with record debt to GPD of over 100%. However, it then immediately cut spending (which resulted in the slower growth rates in the immediate years after WWII) and reduced debt. Inflation also picked up, which, to some extent, helped reducing debt even further[1]. By 1959, the US government had reduced its debt held by the public to 44%, and it dropped to 27% by the end of the 60s (see exhibit 9).</p><p><blockquote>从1958年到1969年，美国经济能够增长近5%，1960年经历了短暂的货币衰退。我们认为，20世纪60年代的增长期是唯一反映美国GDP与当前股价接轨所需的规模和长度的时期。然而，20世纪60年代的经济环境看起来与我们现在有很大不同。更具体地说，美国退出二战时对GPD的债务超过100%。然而，它随后立即削减支出（这导致了二战后几年的增长率放缓）并减少了债务。通货膨胀也有所上升，这在某种程度上有助于进一步减少债务[1]。到1959年，美国政府将公众持有的债务降至44%，到60年代末又降至27%（见图表9）。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ee79afe5f74fa39abc86b197930c486\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Additionally, 10-year treasury rates average at around 5% during this entire growth period. This is a stark contrast to the 1.5% we are seeing now (which already seem to rattle markets). Furthermore, the FED has no room to the downside, as Fed funds rates are already at zero percent. Hence, the only monetary stimulus that is left is via continued and even more extreme QE. However, as we have shown many times before (see&nbsp;Gold Price Framework Vol. 2: The energy side of the equation,&nbsp;<i>28 May 2018</i>), QE has always a huge and direct effect on gold prices, and gold is currently not pricing any of that in. Instead, the equity and gold markets seem to be pricing in economic expansion that is driven by anything but more monetary stimulus.</p><p><blockquote>此外，在整个增长期内，10年期国债利率平均约为5%。这与我们现在看到的1.5%形成鲜明对比（这似乎已经扰乱了市场）。此外，美联储没有下行空间，因为联邦基金利率已经为零。因此，剩下的唯一货币刺激是通过持续甚至更极端的量化宽松。然而，正如我们之前多次展示的那样（参见黄金价格框架第2卷：等式的能量面，<i>2018年5月28日</i>），QE总是对黄金价格产生巨大而直接的影响，而黄金目前并没有对其中的任何一项进行定价。相反，股票和黄金市场似乎正在为经济扩张定价，而经济扩张是由更多的货币刺激推动的。</blockquote></p><p>Another theme of the great Gatsby scenario is that governments will unleash massive transformation towards a greener future. This will lead to huge infrastructure investments in energy, transportation and commodity space, create jobs and unlock economic growth. While we believe that this is likely to be true, what the market seems to ignore is that this can only be financed with more government debt. Central banks will ultimately have to buy that debt, which has the same effect as QE as it leads to a growing balance sheet. And as we have outlined before, higher QE leads to higher gold prices. So again, if markets are pricing in economic expansion on the back of a “green new deal”, they seem to wrongly assume that this can be done without an effect on gold price.</p><p><blockquote>《了不起的盖茨比》的另一个主题是，政府将向更绿色的未来发起大规模变革。这将导致能源、交通和商品领域的巨额基础设施投资，创造就业机会并释放经济增长。虽然我们认为这很可能是真的，但市场似乎忽视的是，这只能通过更多的政府债务来融资。央行最终将不得不购买这些债务，这与量化宽松的效果相同，因为它会导致资产负债表不断扩大。正如我们之前概述的，更高的QE会导致更高的金价。因此，如果市场在“绿色新政”的支持下定价经济扩张，他们似乎错误地认为这可以在不影响金价的情况下实现。</blockquote></p><p>Lastly, there is the idea that the COVID relief checks will continue indefinitely, de facto introducing a sort of Universal Basic Income (UBI). This would have an effect on consumer spending and, thus, corporate revenues. However, currently the US is running the largest deficit in history. If UBI becomes a reality, this would also have to be entirely financed via debt. As mentioned before, markets are not pricing this in, otherwise we would see an effect on gold.</p><p><blockquote>最后，有一种观点认为，COVID救济支票将无限期地继续下去，事实上引入了一种普遍基本收入（UBI）。这将对消费者支出产生影响，从而影响企业收入。然而，目前美国正面临历史上最大的赤字。如果UBI成为现实，这也必须完全通过债务融资。如前所述，市场没有对此进行定价，否则我们将看到对黄金的影响。</blockquote></p><p><b>Thus, the equity-gold conundrum doesn’t disappear in the great Gatsby scenario. In fact, we think that if we see strong economic growth over the coming years, it will entirely be debt financed and as a consequence gold should outperform stocks, not the other way around.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>因此，在《了不起的盖茨比》的场景中，股票-黄金难题并没有消失。事实上，我们认为，如果我们在未来几年看到强劲的经济增长，它将完全由债务融资，因此黄金的表现应该优于股票，而不是相反。</b></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Equity-Gold Price Conundrum, Part 1: The Great Batsby<blockquote>股票-黄金价格难题，第1部分：伟大的蝙蝠侠</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Equity-Gold Price Conundrum, Part 1: The Great Batsby<blockquote>股票-黄金价格难题，第1部分：伟大的蝙蝠侠</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-10 18:11</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The relentless rally in equity markets has pushed valuations to extreme levels based on traditional metrics. In this report, we analyze the two common arguments made by equity bulls on why this time is different and current valuations are justified. We find that either gold or equities are currently mispriced, as, a) both arguments would imply that gold should outperform stocks and b) if neither of the scenarios play out, equities are due for a substantial correction.</p><p><blockquote>根据传统指标，股市的持续上涨已将估值推至极端水平。在本报告中，我们分析了股票多头提出的两个常见论点，即为什么这次不同以及当前估值是合理的。我们发现，黄金或股票目前的定价都是错误的，因为a)这两种论点都意味着黄金的表现应该优于股票，b)如果这两种情况都没有发生，股票将出现大幅调整。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95f7609bf84bf26bd5d2443fa9a7de86\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"445\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Amidst the global COVID-19 pandemic, equities had staggering rally over the past 12 months. The S&amp;P500 almost doubled in less than a year from a low of 2240 on March 23, 2020 to currently 3860 at the time of writing. In addition, some narrower indices have done even better. Particularly certain technology stocks have relentlessly risen amidst an environment of economic stress.</p><p><blockquote>在全球新冠肺炎疫情中，股市在过去12个月中出现了惊人的反弹。标准普尔500指数在不到一年的时间里几乎翻了一番，从2020年3月23日的低点2240点升至撰写本文时目前的3860点。此外，一些较窄的指数表现甚至更好。尤其是某些科技股在经济压力的环境下持续上涨。</blockquote></p><p>This has led to a sharp increase in the equities-to-gold price ratio (see Exhibit 1) even as economic growth has collapsed while the Fed increased its balance sheet at an unprecedented level.</p><p><blockquote>这导致股票与黄金的价格比率急剧上升（见图表1），尽管经济增长已经崩溃，而美联储以前所未有的水平增加了资产负债表。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a828b10b92375dfb19347e6c59314c83\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>This increase in the equities-to-gold-ratio is not caused by gold performing poorly as prices for the yellow metal are up12% since the end of 2019. It’s simply a consequence of equities’ doing really well. But equity valuations according to traditional metrics have now approached extreme levels. For example, the total market cap to GDP (Buffet indicator) is currently at 193% (see exhibit 2), the highest on record, 50% above the peak during the dot.com bubble.</p><p><blockquote>股票与黄金比率的上升并不是由黄金表现不佳造成的，因为自2019年底以来，黄金价格上涨了12%。这只是股市表现良好的结果。但根据传统指标，股票估值现已接近极端水平。例如，总市值占GDP（巴菲特指标）目前为193%（见图表2），为有记录以来的最高水平，比互联网泡沫期间的峰值高出50%。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e64899d2c53b18cc97b2dce33717c9af\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Moreover, global equities to GDP are also extremely high, currently at &gt;120% (see exhibit 3).</p><p><blockquote>此外，全球股票占GDP的比例也极高，目前超过120%（见图表3）。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef426becc1777204ae2f18e3c290e2e6\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"436\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The Cyclically Adjusted Price Earnings Ratio, or CAPE, a measure developed by Robert Schiller, is also flashing red with the second highest reading in history going back to the late 1900s (see exhibit 4).</p><p><blockquote>周期性调整市盈率（CAPE）是罗伯特·席勒（Robert Schiller）开发的一种衡量标准，也呈红色，其读数是自1900年代末以来历史上第二高的读数（见图表4）。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8cc92db52653acc17b59de9311c17bf0\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"442\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Price to sales ratios also hit a record high (see Exhibit 5).</p><p><blockquote>市销率也创下历史新高（见图表5）。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a119fa360112d18ced5d8efff557ebea\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"436\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">There are other indicators that suggest that equity prices have detached from underlying fundamentals. The put / call ratio on the CBOE has now reached the levels of the dot.com bubble (see Exhibit 6).</p><p><blockquote>还有其他指标表明股价已经脱离了基本面。芝加哥期权交易所的看跌/看涨期权比率现在已经达到了互联网泡沫的水平（见图表6）。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/462aa5d4dee82e50792b2a4f6bbd70f8\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">We also saw an unprecedented inflow of new market participants. People with very little or no market exp4erience opened online brokerage accounts at an unprecedented speed during the global lockdowns. More than 10 million Americans opened a trading account in 2020 according to the Wall Street Journal.&nbsp; According to CNBC, ten percent of Americans bought a stock for the first time in the past 12 months, and a staggering twenty-two percent of Gen Z (currently 6-24 years old) opened a stock market account in the last 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>我们还看到前所未有的新市场参与者流入。在全球封锁期间，很少或没有市场经验的人以前所未有的速度开设了在线经纪账户。据《华尔街日报》报道，2020年有超过1000万美国人开设了交易账户。据美国消费者新闻与商业频道报道，10%的美国人在过去12个月内首次购买股票，惊人的22%的Z世代（目前6-24岁）在过去12个月内开设了股市账户。</blockquote></p><p>And stocks are not the only assets that are skyrocketing. Cryptocurrencies, which since 2017 had temporarily lost their luster, are rallying at breakneck pace since the outbreak of the pandemic (see exhibit 7).</p><p><blockquote>股票并不是唯一暴涨的资产。自2017年以来暂时失去光彩的加密货币，自疫情爆发以来正在以极快的速度反弹（见图表7）。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46a4f01c4a7404c0a7b196d39dac0a78\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"424\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Judged on only those metrics, stock markets are clearly in a bubble. But is this time maybe really different as the bulls argue? In our view, there are only two ways that current stock prices could indeed be justified;</p><p><blockquote>仅从这些指标来看，股市显然处于泡沫之中。但这一次真的像多头所说的那样不同吗？在我们看来，只有两种方式可以证明当前的股价是合理的：</blockquote></p><p></p><p><b>1. The great Gatsby:</b>The pandemic, as negative as it was for economic activity near term, will be followed by a period of unprecedented economic expansion. Hence, GDP will rapidly rise and close the gap to equity prices. <b>2. The great inflation:</b>Stocks simply price in future inflation that eventually will come on the back of decades of ultra-low rates and central bank balance sheet expansionWe will take a close look at the validity of those scenarios below. As we will show, these scenarios would require that we enter a multi-year period of extreme economic growth or inflation or a mix of both.&nbsp; However, we will show that gold should outperform stocks in either scenario. And if neither scenario comes true, then stock markets are due for a substantial correction. In that scenario, we would expect central banks to eventually intervene, which should ultimately also benefit gold. Hence, the fact that stocks have vastly outperformed gold over the past months is somewhat of a conundrum. But we are confident that this will reverse going forward.</p><p><blockquote><b>1.了不起的盖茨比：</b>尽管疫情在短期内对经济活动不利，但接下来将是一段前所未有的经济扩张时期。因此，GDP将迅速上升，并缩小与股票价格的差距。<b>2.大通货膨胀：</b>股票只是对未来的通胀进行定价，而未来的通胀最终将在数十年的超低利率和央行资产负债表扩张的背景下出现。我们将在下面仔细研究这些情景的有效性。正如我们将展示的，这些情景将要求我们进入一个多年的极端经济增长或通货膨胀或两者兼而有之的时期。然而，我们将表明，在这两种情况下，黄金的表现都应该优于股票。如果这两种情况都没有实现，那么股市将出现大幅调整。在这种情况下，我们预计央行最终会进行干预，这最终也应该有利于黄金。因此，过去几个月股票的表现大大优于黄金的事实在某种程度上是一个难题。但我们相信，这种情况将在未来逆转。</blockquote></p><p><b>Scenario one: The great Gatsby</b></p><p><blockquote><b>场景一：了不起的盖茨比</b></blockquote></p><p>Proponents of the great Gatsby scenario argue that, once the COVID19 pandemic is behind us as enough people are vaccinated and normality returns, economic activity will explode. The argumentation goes that there is a lot of pent-up demand as people were forced to save during the lockdowns and are eager to consume. This demand will be further fueled by stimulus checks (potentially in perpetuity, UBI). At the same time, governments around the world are rolling out huge green infrastructure programs, partially to combat climate change and partially to jump-start the economy.</p><p><blockquote>《了不起的盖茨比》的支持者认为，一旦COVID19疫情成为过去，有足够多的人接种疫苗，恢复正常，经济活动将会爆发。这种观点认为，由于人们在封锁期间被迫储蓄并渴望消费，因此存在大量被压抑的需求。刺激检查（可能是永久性的，UBI）将进一步推动这种需求。与此同时，世界各国政府正在推出庞大的绿色基础设施项目，部分是为了应对气候变化，部分是为了提振经济。</blockquote></p><p>While some of these deliberations have merit, there are a few important caveats. In our view, it is extremely unlikely for the economy to simply pick up where we left even if the current measures intended to contain the pandemic are completely removed. Many small businesses have closed forever or are about to close in the near term. The surviving businesses are aggressively cutting costs by a) laying off staff and b) trimming production. The former will impact on consumer demand going forward, the latter will impact on the businesses that are further up in the production chain. While there may be pent-up consumer demand from those who still have a job and saved a lot of money during lockdowns, there are also likely to be a lot of pent-up bankruptcies as many businesses have simply survived so far due to government intervention. Eventually many of those businesses will close. This is especially true in many European economies where governments de facto paid companies not to fire people.</p><p><blockquote>虽然其中一些审议有其优点，但也有一些重要的警告。我们认为，即使目前旨在遏制疫情的措施完全取消，经济也极不可能简单地从我们离开的地方恢复过来。许多小企业已经永远关闭或即将在短期内关闭。幸存的企业正在通过a)裁员和b)削减产量来积极削减成本。前者将影响未来的消费者需求，后者将影响生产链更上游的企业。虽然那些仍然有工作并在封锁期间存了很多钱的人可能会有被压抑的消费者需求，但也可能会有很多被压抑的破产，因为许多企业迄今为止只是由于政府干预而幸存下来。最终，许多这样的企业将会关闭。在许多欧洲经济体尤其如此，在这些经济体，政府实际上付钱给公司不要解雇员工。</blockquote></p><p>The problem is compounded by the fact that the economy was already stuttering long before Coronavirus became a household name. The Fed had to aggressively reverse its hiking cycle already by 3Q2019 as markets started to turn sour. We believe that we are close to or already in a recession by late 2019. Hence, a simple return to the pre-COVID economy would mean back to a “normal” recession. Thus, the drivers for this apparent future multi-year super growth cycle have to be strong enough to offset these bearish factors as well.</p><p><blockquote>早在冠状病毒成为家喻户晓的名字之前，经济就已经陷入困境，这一事实使问题变得更加复杂。随着市场开始恶化，美联储不得不在2019年第三季度之前大幅扭转加息周期。我们认为，到2019年底，我们将接近或已经陷入衰退。因此，简单地回到COVID之前的经济将意味着回到“正常”衰退。因此，这个明显的未来多年超级增长周期的驱动力必须足够强大，以抵消这些看跌因素。</blockquote></p><p>Then there is the magnitude by how much the economy would have to expand to justify these kind of equity valuations. If you take a simple metric like market cap to GDP, then GDP would have to almost double from current levels to be in line with historical averages. That implies a nominal GDP of $40tn, or 86% above the levels before COVID (average 2019). Granted that market cap to GDP was already inflated to around 1.2 on average in the ten years prior to the pandemic due to ultra-low interest rates, a return to that average would still require nominal GDP to rise to $35tn or 63% from pre-COVID levels.</p><p><blockquote>然后是经济必须扩张多少才能证明这种股票估值的合理性。如果你用一个简单的指标来衡量GDP，那么GDP必须比当前水平翻一番才能与历史平均水平保持一致。这意味着名义GDP为40万亿美元，比COVID之前的水平（2019年平均水平）高出86%。尽管由于超低利率，在大流行之前的十年里，市值与GDP之比已经平均膨胀至1.2左右，但要恢复到这一平均水平，仍需要名义GDP升至35万亿美元，即较前水平的63%。</blockquote></p><p>Even with a staggering 5% annual GDP growth and 2% inflation, it would still take more than seven years to get there. Are stocks really pricing in the year 2028 with 0% discount rate? And if so, what would be the fundamental driver to push stocks even higher from here? &nbsp;And is there even historic precedent for these kind of growth numbers? In the post WWII period, there have been only two instances where economic expansion was that high for a prolonged period (see Exhibit 8).</p><p><blockquote>即使GDP年增长率达到惊人的5%，通货膨胀率达到2%，仍需要七年多的时间才能实现。2028年股票真的以0%贴现率定价吗？如果是这样，推动股市进一步走高的根本驱动力是什么？这种增长数字有历史先例吗？在二战后时期，只有两次经济扩张在很长一段时间内如此之高（见图表8）。</blockquote></p><p>After WWII ended, the US saw a few years of moderate growth as government spending plummeted, followed by very high growth rates at around 6.9% between 1949 and 1953. This was possible as the US was one of the very few countries where none of the infrastructure had been destroyed and the rest of the world had to be rebuilt. However mathematically, even a repetition of the 1949-53 growth period over the coming years would not be enough to justify current stock prices as it lasted for “only” four years before the US fell into another recession.</p><p><blockquote>二战结束后，随着政府支出暴跌，美国经历了几年的温和增长，随后在1949年至1953年间实现了约6.9%的高增长率。这是可能的，因为美国是极少数基础设施没有被摧毁、世界其他地区必须重建的国家之一。然而，从数学上讲，即使在未来几年重复1949-53年的增长期也不足以证明当前股价的合理性，因为在美国陷入另一场衰退之前，它“只”持续了四年。</blockquote></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0e3916e88c1ee473c5ea235b229f969\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">From 1958-1969, the US economy was able to grow close to 5% with a brief monetary recession in 1960. In our view, this 1960s growth period is the only one that reflects the magnitude and length needed to get US GDP back in line with current equity prices. However, the economic environment of the 1960s looked very different from where we are now. More specifically, the US exited WWII with record debt to GPD of over 100%. However, it then immediately cut spending (which resulted in the slower growth rates in the immediate years after WWII) and reduced debt. Inflation also picked up, which, to some extent, helped reducing debt even further[1]. By 1959, the US government had reduced its debt held by the public to 44%, and it dropped to 27% by the end of the 60s (see exhibit 9).</p><p><blockquote>从1958年到1969年，美国经济能够增长近5%，1960年经历了短暂的货币衰退。我们认为，20世纪60年代的增长期是唯一反映美国GDP与当前股价接轨所需的规模和长度的时期。然而，20世纪60年代的经济环境看起来与我们现在有很大不同。更具体地说，美国退出二战时对GPD的债务超过100%。然而，它随后立即削减支出（这导致了二战后几年的增长率放缓）并减少了债务。通货膨胀也有所上升，这在某种程度上有助于进一步减少债务[1]。到1959年，美国政府将公众持有的债务降至44%，到60年代末又降至27%（见图表9）。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ee79afe5f74fa39abc86b197930c486\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Additionally, 10-year treasury rates average at around 5% during this entire growth period. This is a stark contrast to the 1.5% we are seeing now (which already seem to rattle markets). Furthermore, the FED has no room to the downside, as Fed funds rates are already at zero percent. Hence, the only monetary stimulus that is left is via continued and even more extreme QE. However, as we have shown many times before (see&nbsp;Gold Price Framework Vol. 2: The energy side of the equation,&nbsp;<i>28 May 2018</i>), QE has always a huge and direct effect on gold prices, and gold is currently not pricing any of that in. Instead, the equity and gold markets seem to be pricing in economic expansion that is driven by anything but more monetary stimulus.</p><p><blockquote>此外，在整个增长期内，10年期国债利率平均约为5%。这与我们现在看到的1.5%形成鲜明对比（这似乎已经扰乱了市场）。此外，美联储没有下行空间，因为联邦基金利率已经为零。因此，剩下的唯一货币刺激是通过持续甚至更极端的量化宽松。然而，正如我们之前多次展示的那样（参见黄金价格框架第2卷：等式的能量面，<i>2018年5月28日</i>），QE总是对黄金价格产生巨大而直接的影响，而黄金目前并没有对其中的任何一项进行定价。相反，股票和黄金市场似乎正在为经济扩张定价，而经济扩张是由更多的货币刺激推动的。</blockquote></p><p>Another theme of the great Gatsby scenario is that governments will unleash massive transformation towards a greener future. This will lead to huge infrastructure investments in energy, transportation and commodity space, create jobs and unlock economic growth. While we believe that this is likely to be true, what the market seems to ignore is that this can only be financed with more government debt. Central banks will ultimately have to buy that debt, which has the same effect as QE as it leads to a growing balance sheet. And as we have outlined before, higher QE leads to higher gold prices. So again, if markets are pricing in economic expansion on the back of a “green new deal”, they seem to wrongly assume that this can be done without an effect on gold price.</p><p><blockquote>《了不起的盖茨比》的另一个主题是，政府将向更绿色的未来发起大规模变革。这将导致能源、交通和商品领域的巨额基础设施投资，创造就业机会并释放经济增长。虽然我们认为这很可能是真的，但市场似乎忽视的是，这只能通过更多的政府债务来融资。央行最终将不得不购买这些债务，这与量化宽松的效果相同，因为它会导致资产负债表不断扩大。正如我们之前概述的，更高的QE会导致更高的金价。因此，如果市场在“绿色新政”的支持下定价经济扩张，他们似乎错误地认为这可以在不影响金价的情况下实现。</blockquote></p><p>Lastly, there is the idea that the COVID relief checks will continue indefinitely, de facto introducing a sort of Universal Basic Income (UBI). This would have an effect on consumer spending and, thus, corporate revenues. However, currently the US is running the largest deficit in history. If UBI becomes a reality, this would also have to be entirely financed via debt. As mentioned before, markets are not pricing this in, otherwise we would see an effect on gold.</p><p><blockquote>最后，有一种观点认为，COVID救济支票将无限期地继续下去，事实上引入了一种普遍基本收入（UBI）。这将对消费者支出产生影响，从而影响企业收入。然而，目前美国正面临历史上最大的赤字。如果UBI成为现实，这也必须完全通过债务融资。如前所述，市场没有对此进行定价，否则我们将看到对黄金的影响。</blockquote></p><p><b>Thus, the equity-gold conundrum doesn’t disappear in the great Gatsby scenario. In fact, we think that if we see strong economic growth over the coming years, it will entirely be debt financed and as a consequence gold should outperform stocks, not the other way around.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>因此，在《了不起的盖茨比》的场景中，股票-黄金难题并没有消失。事实上，我们认为，如果我们在未来几年看到强劲的经济增长，它将完全由债务融资，因此黄金的表现应该优于股票，而不是相反。</b></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/equity-gold-price-conundrum-part-1-great-batsby?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohege%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/equity-gold-price-conundrum-part-1-great-batsby?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohege%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1162030727","content_text":"The relentless rally in equity markets has pushed valuations to extreme levels based on traditional metrics. In this report, we analyze the two common arguments made by equity bulls on why this time is different and current valuations are justified. We find that either gold or equities are currently mispriced, as, a) both arguments would imply that gold should outperform stocks and b) if neither of the scenarios play out, equities are due for a substantial correction.Amidst the global COVID-19 pandemic, equities had staggering rally over the past 12 months. The S&P500 almost doubled in less than a year from a low of 2240 on March 23, 2020 to currently 3860 at the time of writing. In addition, some narrower indices have done even better. Particularly certain technology stocks have relentlessly risen amidst an environment of economic stress.This has led to a sharp increase in the equities-to-gold price ratio (see Exhibit 1) even as economic growth has collapsed while the Fed increased its balance sheet at an unprecedented level.This increase in the equities-to-gold-ratio is not caused by gold performing poorly as prices for the yellow metal are up12% since the end of 2019. It’s simply a consequence of equities’ doing really well. But equity valuations according to traditional metrics have now approached extreme levels. For example, the total market cap to GDP (Buffet indicator) is currently at 193% (see exhibit 2), the highest on record, 50% above the peak during the dot.com bubble.Moreover, global equities to GDP are also extremely high, currently at >120% (see exhibit 3).The Cyclically Adjusted Price Earnings Ratio, or CAPE, a measure developed by Robert Schiller, is also flashing red with the second highest reading in history going back to the late 1900s (see exhibit 4).Price to sales ratios also hit a record high (see Exhibit 5).There are other indicators that suggest that equity prices have detached from underlying fundamentals. The put / call ratio on the CBOE has now reached the levels of the dot.com bubble (see Exhibit 6).We also saw an unprecedented inflow of new market participants. People with very little or no market exp4erience opened online brokerage accounts at an unprecedented speed during the global lockdowns. More than 10 million Americans opened a trading account in 2020 according to the Wall Street Journal.  According to CNBC, ten percent of Americans bought a stock for the first time in the past 12 months, and a staggering twenty-two percent of Gen Z (currently 6-24 years old) opened a stock market account in the last 12 months.And stocks are not the only assets that are skyrocketing. Cryptocurrencies, which since 2017 had temporarily lost their luster, are rallying at breakneck pace since the outbreak of the pandemic (see exhibit 7).Judged on only those metrics, stock markets are clearly in a bubble. But is this time maybe really different as the bulls argue? In our view, there are only two ways that current stock prices could indeed be justified;1. The great Gatsby:The pandemic, as negative as it was for economic activity near term, will be followed by a period of unprecedented economic expansion. Hence, GDP will rapidly rise and close the gap to equity prices. 2. The great inflation:Stocks simply price in future inflation that eventually will come on the back of decades of ultra-low rates and central bank balance sheet expansionWe will take a close look at the validity of those scenarios below. As we will show, these scenarios would require that we enter a multi-year period of extreme economic growth or inflation or a mix of both.  However, we will show that gold should outperform stocks in either scenario. And if neither scenario comes true, then stock markets are due for a substantial correction. In that scenario, we would expect central banks to eventually intervene, which should ultimately also benefit gold. Hence, the fact that stocks have vastly outperformed gold over the past months is somewhat of a conundrum. But we are confident that this will reverse going forward.Scenario one: The great GatsbyProponents of the great Gatsby scenario argue that, once the COVID19 pandemic is behind us as enough people are vaccinated and normality returns, economic activity will explode. The argumentation goes that there is a lot of pent-up demand as people were forced to save during the lockdowns and are eager to consume. This demand will be further fueled by stimulus checks (potentially in perpetuity, UBI). At the same time, governments around the world are rolling out huge green infrastructure programs, partially to combat climate change and partially to jump-start the economy.While some of these deliberations have merit, there are a few important caveats. In our view, it is extremely unlikely for the economy to simply pick up where we left even if the current measures intended to contain the pandemic are completely removed. Many small businesses have closed forever or are about to close in the near term. The surviving businesses are aggressively cutting costs by a) laying off staff and b) trimming production. The former will impact on consumer demand going forward, the latter will impact on the businesses that are further up in the production chain. While there may be pent-up consumer demand from those who still have a job and saved a lot of money during lockdowns, there are also likely to be a lot of pent-up bankruptcies as many businesses have simply survived so far due to government intervention. Eventually many of those businesses will close. This is especially true in many European economies where governments de facto paid companies not to fire people.The problem is compounded by the fact that the economy was already stuttering long before Coronavirus became a household name. The Fed had to aggressively reverse its hiking cycle already by 3Q2019 as markets started to turn sour. We believe that we are close to or already in a recession by late 2019. Hence, a simple return to the pre-COVID economy would mean back to a “normal” recession. Thus, the drivers for this apparent future multi-year super growth cycle have to be strong enough to offset these bearish factors as well.Then there is the magnitude by how much the economy would have to expand to justify these kind of equity valuations. If you take a simple metric like market cap to GDP, then GDP would have to almost double from current levels to be in line with historical averages. That implies a nominal GDP of $40tn, or 86% above the levels before COVID (average 2019). Granted that market cap to GDP was already inflated to around 1.2 on average in the ten years prior to the pandemic due to ultra-low interest rates, a return to that average would still require nominal GDP to rise to $35tn or 63% from pre-COVID levels.Even with a staggering 5% annual GDP growth and 2% inflation, it would still take more than seven years to get there. Are stocks really pricing in the year 2028 with 0% discount rate? And if so, what would be the fundamental driver to push stocks even higher from here?  And is there even historic precedent for these kind of growth numbers? In the post WWII period, there have been only two instances where economic expansion was that high for a prolonged period (see Exhibit 8).After WWII ended, the US saw a few years of moderate growth as government spending plummeted, followed by very high growth rates at around 6.9% between 1949 and 1953. This was possible as the US was one of the very few countries where none of the infrastructure had been destroyed and the rest of the world had to be rebuilt. However mathematically, even a repetition of the 1949-53 growth period over the coming years would not be enough to justify current stock prices as it lasted for “only” four years before the US fell into another recession.From 1958-1969, the US economy was able to grow close to 5% with a brief monetary recession in 1960. In our view, this 1960s growth period is the only one that reflects the magnitude and length needed to get US GDP back in line with current equity prices. However, the economic environment of the 1960s looked very different from where we are now. More specifically, the US exited WWII with record debt to GPD of over 100%. However, it then immediately cut spending (which resulted in the slower growth rates in the immediate years after WWII) and reduced debt. Inflation also picked up, which, to some extent, helped reducing debt even further[1]. By 1959, the US government had reduced its debt held by the public to 44%, and it dropped to 27% by the end of the 60s (see exhibit 9).Additionally, 10-year treasury rates average at around 5% during this entire growth period. This is a stark contrast to the 1.5% we are seeing now (which already seem to rattle markets). Furthermore, the FED has no room to the downside, as Fed funds rates are already at zero percent. Hence, the only monetary stimulus that is left is via continued and even more extreme QE. However, as we have shown many times before (see Gold Price Framework Vol. 2: The energy side of the equation, 28 May 2018), QE has always a huge and direct effect on gold prices, and gold is currently not pricing any of that in. Instead, the equity and gold markets seem to be pricing in economic expansion that is driven by anything but more monetary stimulus.Another theme of the great Gatsby scenario is that governments will unleash massive transformation towards a greener future. This will lead to huge infrastructure investments in energy, transportation and commodity space, create jobs and unlock economic growth. While we believe that this is likely to be true, what the market seems to ignore is that this can only be financed with more government debt. Central banks will ultimately have to buy that debt, which has the same effect as QE as it leads to a growing balance sheet. And as we have outlined before, higher QE leads to higher gold prices. So again, if markets are pricing in economic expansion on the back of a “green new deal”, they seem to wrongly assume that this can be done without an effect on gold price.Lastly, there is the idea that the COVID relief checks will continue indefinitely, de facto introducing a sort of Universal Basic Income (UBI). This would have an effect on consumer spending and, thus, corporate revenues. However, currently the US is running the largest deficit in history. If UBI becomes a reality, this would also have to be entirely financed via debt. As mentioned before, markets are not pricing this in, otherwise we would see an effect on gold.Thus, the equity-gold conundrum doesn’t disappear in the great Gatsby scenario. In fact, we think that if we see strong economic growth over the coming years, it will entirely be debt financed and as a consequence gold should outperform stocks, not the other way around.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":623,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":137510545,"gmtCreate":1622360811187,"gmtModify":1634102036421,"author":{"id":"3573788390439161","authorId":"3573788390439161","name":"30ad6cc","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573788390439161","idStr":"3573788390439161"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok sure","listText":"Ok sure","text":"Ok sure","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/137510545","repostId":"2138948877","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1704,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":329428749,"gmtCreate":1615272158381,"gmtModify":1703486551098,"author":{"id":"3573788390439161","authorId":"3573788390439161","name":"30ad6cc","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573788390439161","idStr":"3573788390439161"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please help to like and comment, thanks!","listText":"Please help to like and comment, thanks!","text":"Please help to like and comment, thanks!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/329428749","repostId":"1158720704","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":549,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124813891,"gmtCreate":1624758116613,"gmtModify":1633949051017,"author":{"id":"3573788390439161","authorId":"3573788390439161","name":"30ad6cc","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573788390439161","idStr":"3573788390439161"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Okay","listText":"Okay","text":"Okay","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124813891","repostId":"2146006003","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2729,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":199911672,"gmtCreate":1620661711696,"gmtModify":1634197303755,"author":{"id":"3573788390439161","authorId":"3573788390439161","name":"30ad6cc","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573788390439161","idStr":"3573788390439161"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Sharing this stock","listText":"Sharing this stock","text":"Sharing this stock","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4dc06d5d07a5678829cf98f760452f3b","width":"1080","height":"2650"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/199911672","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1461,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":199919590,"gmtCreate":1620661595510,"gmtModify":1634197304951,"author":{"id":"3573788390439161","authorId":"3573788390439161","name":"30ad6cc","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573788390439161","idStr":"3573788390439161"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok lah","listText":"Ok lah","text":"Ok lah","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/199919590","repostId":"2134686276","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1609,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":372376502,"gmtCreate":1619183203006,"gmtModify":1634287942648,"author":{"id":"3573788390439161","authorId":"3573788390439161","name":"30ad6cc","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573788390439161","idStr":"3573788390439161"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Sharing for coin","listText":"Sharing for coin","text":"Sharing for coin","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ef057121f3a51db3efa27e04322b1ce","width":"1080","height":"2650"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/372376502","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2325,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":100040513,"gmtCreate":1619570919332,"gmtModify":1634211695690,"author":{"id":"3573788390439161","authorId":"3573788390439161","name":"30ad6cc","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573788390439161","idStr":"3573788390439161"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yay great","listText":"Yay great","text":"Yay great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/100040513","repostId":"1187199105","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1187199105","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1619566832,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1187199105?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-28 07:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMD stock rises after earnings show data-center sales more than doubling<blockquote>财报显示数据中心销售额增长一倍多后，AMD股价上涨</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187199105","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"AMD increases full-year revenue guidance after record quarterly sales, stock jumps more than 3% in e","content":"<p>AMD increases full-year revenue guidance after record quarterly sales, stock jumps more than 3% in extended session<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/174cfb55080b96346856b267d6c023ed\" tg-width=\"706\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Advanced Micro Devices Inc. shares rose in the extended session Tuesday after the chip maker said data-center revenue more than doubled to fuel record quarterly sales, and increased its revenue forecast for the year.</p><p><blockquote>AMD在创纪录的季度销售额后上调全年收入指引，股价在延长交易时段上涨逾3%芯片制造商Advanced Micro Devices Inc.表示，数据中心收入增长了一倍多，推动了创纪录的季度销售额，并上调了今年的收入预期，该公司股价在周二的延长交易中上涨。</blockquote></p><p>“In the first quarter, data-center product revenue more than doubled year-over-year and represented a high teens percentage of our overall revenue,” said AMD&nbsp;Chief Executive Lisa Su on a call with analysts. “We expect data-center product revenue to grow significantly as we go through the year driven by our strong pipeline of new cloud, enterprise and [high-performance computing] wins.”</p><p><blockquote>AMD首席执行官苏姿丰在与分析师的看涨期权中表示：“第一季度，数据中心产品收入同比增长了一倍多，占我们总收入的比例很高。”“我们预计，在我们强大的新云、企业和[高性能计算]胜利渠道的推动下，数据中心产品收入将在今年大幅增长。”</blockquote></p><p>Sales from enterprise embedded and semi-custom chips — the unit that includes data-center and gaming-console revenue — nearly quadrupled to $1.35 billion, compared with $348 million a year ago. Analysts surveyed by FactSet expected $1.3 billion. Su’s comments about data-center revenue were helpful asAMD does not break out data-center sales from gaming sales.</p><p><blockquote>企业嵌入式和半定制芯片（包括数据中心和游戏机收入）的销售额几乎翻了两番，达到13.5亿美元，而一年前为3.48亿美元。FactSet调查的分析师预计为13亿美元。苏关于数据中心收入的评论很有帮助，因为AMD不会将数据中心销售额与游戏销售额分开。</blockquote></p><p>“I think we saw actually strong signals in the first quarter that it would be a strong data-center year for us,” Su told analysts.</p><p><blockquote>“我认为我们在第一季度看到了真正强烈的信号，表明今年对我们来说将是数据中心强劲的一年，”苏告诉分析师。</blockquote></p><p>Last week, Intel Corp&nbsp;said the data-center market was in a“digestion phase,”contributing to a 20% drop in sales for data centers, yetanalysts pointed to increased competition from AMD and ARM Holdings PLC.</p><p><blockquote>上周，英特尔公司表示，数据中心市场正处于“消化阶段”，导致数据中心销售额下降20%，但分析师指出，来自AMD和ARM Holdings PLC的竞争加剧。</blockquote></p><p>AMD reported first-quarter net income of $555 million, or 45 cents a share, compared with $162 million, or 14 cents a share, in the year-ago period. After adjusting for stock-based compensation and other factors, the Santa Clara, Calif.-based company reported earnings of 52 cents a share, compared with 18 cents a share in the year-ago period. Revenue rose to $3.45 billion from $1.79 billion in the year-ago quarter.</p><p><blockquote>AMD公布第一季度净利润为5.55亿美元，即每股45美分，而去年同期为1.62亿美元，即每股14美分。在调整股票薪酬和其他因素后，这家总部位于加利福尼亚州圣克拉拉的公司报告每股收益为52美分，而去年同期为每股18美分。收入从去年同期的17.9亿美元增至34.5亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Analysts surveyed by FactSet had forecast adjusted earnings of 44 cents a share on revenue of $3.18 billion, and AMD projected between $3.1 billion and $3.3 billion.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet调查的分析师此前预测调整后每股收益为44美分，营收为31.8亿美元，AMD预计在31亿至33亿美元之间。</blockquote></p><p>AMD reported first-quarter sales of $2.1 billion for computing and graphics chips, up 46% from $1.44 billion last year, compared with analyst expectations of $1.89 billion.</p><p><blockquote>AMD公布第一季度计算和图形芯片销售额为21亿美元，较去年的14.4亿美元增长46%，分析师预期为18.9亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Executives also increased AMD’s guidance for the full year, to a sales increase of about 50% from previous guidance of a roughly 37% increase. AMD reported revenue of $9.67 billion last year, suggesting sales of about $14.65 billion this year; analysts had been forecasting revenue of $13.46 billion, according to FactSet.</p><p><blockquote>高管们还提高了AMD全年销售额指引，从之前指引的约37%增长至约50%。AMD去年营收为96.7亿美元，暗示今年销售额约为146.5亿美元；FactSet的数据显示，分析师此前预测营收为134.6亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>AMD expects second-quarter revenue of $3.5 billion to $3.7 billion, while analysts had been projecting $3.23 billion, according to FactSet.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet的数据显示，AMD预计第二季度营收为35亿至37亿美元，而分析师此前预计为32.3亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Shares gained more than 3% in after-hours trading, following a 0.2% decline in the regular session to close at $85.21.</p><p><blockquote>该股在常规交易中下跌0.2%，收于85.21美元，在盘后交易中上涨超过3%。</blockquote></p><p>AMD’s strong earnings come amid a continuing shortage of microchips to sate demand from global industries, and the companies that make the silicon wafers that chip designs use, work to clear waiting lists that span several months.</p><p><blockquote>AMD的强劲盈利是在满足全球行业需求的微芯片持续短缺的情况下出现的，而制造芯片设计所用硅片的公司正在努力清理长达数月的等待名单。</blockquote></p><p>More of how the chip sector is dealing with supply shortages will be revealed this week, with Qualcomm Inc.QCOM,-0.68%earnings on Wednesday and KLA Corp.KLAC,-1.58%earnings on Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>芯片行业如何应对供应短缺的更多信息将于本周公布，高通公司(Qualcomm Inc.QCOM)周三盈利-0.68%，KLA Corp.KLAC(KLAC)周四盈利-1.58%。</blockquote></p><p>Over the past 12 months, AMD shares have gained 51%. In comparison, the PHLX Semiconductor IndexSOX,-0.76%has gained 87%, the S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;has risen 54%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index&nbsp;is up 61%.</p><p><blockquote>过去12个月，AMD股价上涨了51%。相比之下，PHLX半导体指数SOX,-0.76%上涨87%，标普500指数上涨54%，以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数上涨61%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMD stock rises after earnings show data-center sales more than doubling<blockquote>财报显示数据中心销售额增长一倍多后，AMD股价上涨</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMD stock rises after earnings show data-center sales more than doubling<blockquote>财报显示数据中心销售额增长一倍多后，AMD股价上涨</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-04-28 07:40</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>AMD increases full-year revenue guidance after record quarterly sales, stock jumps more than 3% in extended session<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/174cfb55080b96346856b267d6c023ed\" tg-width=\"706\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Advanced Micro Devices Inc. shares rose in the extended session Tuesday after the chip maker said data-center revenue more than doubled to fuel record quarterly sales, and increased its revenue forecast for the year.</p><p><blockquote>AMD在创纪录的季度销售额后上调全年收入指引，股价在延长交易时段上涨逾3%芯片制造商Advanced Micro Devices Inc.表示，数据中心收入增长了一倍多，推动了创纪录的季度销售额，并上调了今年的收入预期，该公司股价在周二的延长交易中上涨。</blockquote></p><p>“In the first quarter, data-center product revenue more than doubled year-over-year and represented a high teens percentage of our overall revenue,” said AMD&nbsp;Chief Executive Lisa Su on a call with analysts. “We expect data-center product revenue to grow significantly as we go through the year driven by our strong pipeline of new cloud, enterprise and [high-performance computing] wins.”</p><p><blockquote>AMD首席执行官苏姿丰在与分析师的看涨期权中表示：“第一季度，数据中心产品收入同比增长了一倍多，占我们总收入的比例很高。”“我们预计，在我们强大的新云、企业和[高性能计算]胜利渠道的推动下，数据中心产品收入将在今年大幅增长。”</blockquote></p><p>Sales from enterprise embedded and semi-custom chips — the unit that includes data-center and gaming-console revenue — nearly quadrupled to $1.35 billion, compared with $348 million a year ago. Analysts surveyed by FactSet expected $1.3 billion. Su’s comments about data-center revenue were helpful asAMD does not break out data-center sales from gaming sales.</p><p><blockquote>企业嵌入式和半定制芯片（包括数据中心和游戏机收入）的销售额几乎翻了两番，达到13.5亿美元，而一年前为3.48亿美元。FactSet调查的分析师预计为13亿美元。苏关于数据中心收入的评论很有帮助，因为AMD不会将数据中心销售额与游戏销售额分开。</blockquote></p><p>“I think we saw actually strong signals in the first quarter that it would be a strong data-center year for us,” Su told analysts.</p><p><blockquote>“我认为我们在第一季度看到了真正强烈的信号，表明今年对我们来说将是数据中心强劲的一年，”苏告诉分析师。</blockquote></p><p>Last week, Intel Corp&nbsp;said the data-center market was in a“digestion phase,”contributing to a 20% drop in sales for data centers, yetanalysts pointed to increased competition from AMD and ARM Holdings PLC.</p><p><blockquote>上周，英特尔公司表示，数据中心市场正处于“消化阶段”，导致数据中心销售额下降20%，但分析师指出，来自AMD和ARM Holdings PLC的竞争加剧。</blockquote></p><p>AMD reported first-quarter net income of $555 million, or 45 cents a share, compared with $162 million, or 14 cents a share, in the year-ago period. After adjusting for stock-based compensation and other factors, the Santa Clara, Calif.-based company reported earnings of 52 cents a share, compared with 18 cents a share in the year-ago period. Revenue rose to $3.45 billion from $1.79 billion in the year-ago quarter.</p><p><blockquote>AMD公布第一季度净利润为5.55亿美元，即每股45美分，而去年同期为1.62亿美元，即每股14美分。在调整股票薪酬和其他因素后，这家总部位于加利福尼亚州圣克拉拉的公司报告每股收益为52美分，而去年同期为每股18美分。收入从去年同期的17.9亿美元增至34.5亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Analysts surveyed by FactSet had forecast adjusted earnings of 44 cents a share on revenue of $3.18 billion, and AMD projected between $3.1 billion and $3.3 billion.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet调查的分析师此前预测调整后每股收益为44美分，营收为31.8亿美元，AMD预计在31亿至33亿美元之间。</blockquote></p><p>AMD reported first-quarter sales of $2.1 billion for computing and graphics chips, up 46% from $1.44 billion last year, compared with analyst expectations of $1.89 billion.</p><p><blockquote>AMD公布第一季度计算和图形芯片销售额为21亿美元，较去年的14.4亿美元增长46%，分析师预期为18.9亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Executives also increased AMD’s guidance for the full year, to a sales increase of about 50% from previous guidance of a roughly 37% increase. AMD reported revenue of $9.67 billion last year, suggesting sales of about $14.65 billion this year; analysts had been forecasting revenue of $13.46 billion, according to FactSet.</p><p><blockquote>高管们还提高了AMD全年销售额指引，从之前指引的约37%增长至约50%。AMD去年营收为96.7亿美元，暗示今年销售额约为146.5亿美元；FactSet的数据显示，分析师此前预测营收为134.6亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>AMD expects second-quarter revenue of $3.5 billion to $3.7 billion, while analysts had been projecting $3.23 billion, according to FactSet.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet的数据显示，AMD预计第二季度营收为35亿至37亿美元，而分析师此前预计为32.3亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Shares gained more than 3% in after-hours trading, following a 0.2% decline in the regular session to close at $85.21.</p><p><blockquote>该股在常规交易中下跌0.2%，收于85.21美元，在盘后交易中上涨超过3%。</blockquote></p><p>AMD’s strong earnings come amid a continuing shortage of microchips to sate demand from global industries, and the companies that make the silicon wafers that chip designs use, work to clear waiting lists that span several months.</p><p><blockquote>AMD的强劲盈利是在满足全球行业需求的微芯片持续短缺的情况下出现的，而制造芯片设计所用硅片的公司正在努力清理长达数月的等待名单。</blockquote></p><p>More of how the chip sector is dealing with supply shortages will be revealed this week, with Qualcomm Inc.QCOM,-0.68%earnings on Wednesday and KLA Corp.KLAC,-1.58%earnings on Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>芯片行业如何应对供应短缺的更多信息将于本周公布，高通公司(Qualcomm Inc.QCOM)周三盈利-0.68%，KLA Corp.KLAC(KLAC)周四盈利-1.58%。</blockquote></p><p>Over the past 12 months, AMD shares have gained 51%. In comparison, the PHLX Semiconductor IndexSOX,-0.76%has gained 87%, the S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;has risen 54%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index&nbsp;is up 61%.</p><p><blockquote>过去12个月，AMD股价上涨了51%。相比之下，PHLX半导体指数SOX,-0.76%上涨87%，标普500指数上涨54%，以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数上涨61%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMD":"美国超微公司"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187199105","content_text":"AMD increases full-year revenue guidance after record quarterly sales, stock jumps more than 3% in extended sessionAdvanced Micro Devices Inc. shares rose in the extended session Tuesday after the chip maker said data-center revenue more than doubled to fuel record quarterly sales, and increased its revenue forecast for the year.“In the first quarter, data-center product revenue more than doubled year-over-year and represented a high teens percentage of our overall revenue,” said AMD Chief Executive Lisa Su on a call with analysts. “We expect data-center product revenue to grow significantly as we go through the year driven by our strong pipeline of new cloud, enterprise and [high-performance computing] wins.”Sales from enterprise embedded and semi-custom chips — the unit that includes data-center and gaming-console revenue — nearly quadrupled to $1.35 billion, compared with $348 million a year ago. Analysts surveyed by FactSet expected $1.3 billion. Su’s comments about data-center revenue were helpful asAMD does not break out data-center sales from gaming sales.“I think we saw actually strong signals in the first quarter that it would be a strong data-center year for us,” Su told analysts.Last week, Intel Corp said the data-center market was in a“digestion phase,”contributing to a 20% drop in sales for data centers, yetanalysts pointed to increased competition from AMD and ARM Holdings PLC.AMD reported first-quarter net income of $555 million, or 45 cents a share, compared with $162 million, or 14 cents a share, in the year-ago period. After adjusting for stock-based compensation and other factors, the Santa Clara, Calif.-based company reported earnings of 52 cents a share, compared with 18 cents a share in the year-ago period. Revenue rose to $3.45 billion from $1.79 billion in the year-ago quarter.Analysts surveyed by FactSet had forecast adjusted earnings of 44 cents a share on revenue of $3.18 billion, and AMD projected between $3.1 billion and $3.3 billion.AMD reported first-quarter sales of $2.1 billion for computing and graphics chips, up 46% from $1.44 billion last year, compared with analyst expectations of $1.89 billion.Executives also increased AMD’s guidance for the full year, to a sales increase of about 50% from previous guidance of a roughly 37% increase. AMD reported revenue of $9.67 billion last year, suggesting sales of about $14.65 billion this year; analysts had been forecasting revenue of $13.46 billion, according to FactSet.AMD expects second-quarter revenue of $3.5 billion to $3.7 billion, while analysts had been projecting $3.23 billion, according to FactSet.Shares gained more than 3% in after-hours trading, following a 0.2% decline in the regular session to close at $85.21.AMD’s strong earnings come amid a continuing shortage of microchips to sate demand from global industries, and the companies that make the silicon wafers that chip designs use, work to clear waiting lists that span several months.More of how the chip sector is dealing with supply shortages will be revealed this week, with Qualcomm Inc.QCOM,-0.68%earnings on Wednesday and KLA Corp.KLAC,-1.58%earnings on Thursday.Over the past 12 months, AMD shares have gained 51%. In comparison, the PHLX Semiconductor IndexSOX,-0.76%has gained 87%, the S&P 500 index has risen 54%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index is up 61%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1230,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":343969261,"gmtCreate":1617669954753,"gmtModify":1634297224434,"author":{"id":"3573788390439161","authorId":"3573788390439161","name":"30ad6cc","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573788390439161","idStr":"3573788390439161"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/065a3456ca5c3647f6b2b4183c47f32b","width":"1080","height":"2650"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/343969261","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":665,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":321261588,"gmtCreate":1615439798144,"gmtModify":1703489085464,"author":{"id":"3573788390439161","authorId":"3573788390439161","name":"30ad6cc","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573788390439161","idStr":"3573788390439161"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Okay this is a stock","listText":"Okay this is a stock","text":"Okay this is a stock","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4dd3a3c1e1efdfb326278f1594133fb","width":"1080","height":"2622"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/321261588","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":715,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}