Chris_3219的个人主页 - 老虎社区

Chris_3219

Chris_3219

暂无个人介绍

IP属地：未知

1关注

27粉丝

0主题

0勋章

2021-09-27

$纳峰科技(MZH.SI)$[爱你]

2021-09-16

$纳峰科技(MZH.SI)$[财迷]

2021-09-10

$马克里资本投资有限公司(5RF.SI)$等[财迷]

2021-09-08

$马克里资本投资有限公司(5RF.SI)$[比心]

2021-09-06

$马克里资本投资有限公司(5RF.SI)$终于等到回升了，到0.09就放[贱笑] [贱笑]

2021-09-05

$马克里资本投资有限公司(5RF.SI)$爆升[爱你] [爱你]

2021-08-26

[思考]

为什么只有少数投资者，能在股市中赚到钱？

2021-08-20

$新电信(Z74.SI)$终于稍有起色了[保佑] [保佑]

2021-08-03

0.057了，历史重演[贱笑]

2021-08-02

$马克里资本投资有限公司(5RF.SI)$会不会又像之前那样，跌倒0.055 后就开始反弹了[思考] [思考]

2021-07-28

$马克里资本投资有限公司(5RF.SI)$还没有消息放出吗[疑问] [疑问]

2021-07-27

$马克里资本投资有限公司(5RF.SI)$继续守着吧！[龇牙]

2021-07-25

明天应该会有消息放出吗[思考] [思考]

2021-07-15

$马克里资本投资有限公司(5RF.SI)$短短一小时

2021-07-14

其实我想知道被收购的小道消息是从何而来的[无语] [无语]

2021-07-06

有钱任性[财迷] [财迷]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-28

MC payment 最新消息

凯利板挂牌公司米支付（MC Payment）控股股东陈积光和公司董事会之间的纠纷继续升温，陈积光发函驳斥董事会的说法，董事会则回应称提名委员会评估董事候选人的方式公平透彻。陈积光星期六发函，对米支付文告中关于认为他、陈威宏和伍永瑞不是合适董事人选的理由，作出回应。米支付昨天则在新加坡交易所网站发文告回应陈积光的指责。公司说，提名委员会指这三人没有在提交给委员会的评估文件或通过豪利控股，完全披露Pindan集团旗下数家公司陷入严重财务困境。他们只披露Pindan集团的一些公司进入自愿管理破产程序，而完全没有提到其他九家公司已经清盘。截至早报新加坡

MC payment 最新消息

2021-06-24

新交所监管公司（SGX RegCo）正在对凯利板挂牌数码付款营运商米支付（MC Payment）股票交易量价大涨进行调查。出处早报

2021-06-23

$ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$[白眼] [白眼]

2021-06-21

$MC Payment(TVV.SI)$一开市就猛涨

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RF.SI\">$马克里资本投资有限公司(5RF.SI)$</a>爆升[爱你]&nbsp;[爱你]&nbsp;","text":"$马克里资本投资有限公司(5RF.SI)$爆升[爱你] [爱你]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9937d07ad6301ce63b8fc52089976ab","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/814878759","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1237,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":837772595,"gmtCreate":1629932574917,"gmtModify":1631886992393,"author":{"id":"3568372856206236","authorId":"3568372856206236","name":"Chris_3219","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8970adf2d9a5b67bbc9e7e39c20a1bd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[思考]&nbsp;","listText":"[思考]&nbsp;","text":"[思考]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/837772595","repostId":"1154549598","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1154549598","pubTimestamp":1629860873,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1154549598?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-25 11:07","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"为什么只有少数投资者，能在股市中赚到钱？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154549598","media":"秦朔朋友圈","summary":"截至2021年6月30日，我国资本市场个人投资者总数已达1.88亿，占投资者总数的比例达99.77%，占全国总人口的比例12.8%。\n在这么多投资者当中，真正在股市投资中赚到钱的可能是少数，所以有“七","content":"<p>截至2021年6月30日，我国资本市场个人投资者总数已达1.88亿，占投资者总数的比例达99.77%，占全国总人口的比例12.8%。</p>\n<p><b>在这么多投资者当中，真正在股市投资中赚到钱的可能是少数，所以有“七亏两平一赚”的说法。</b>为什么这么多投资者投资亏损，原因都是违背了常识。如果我们投资中违背常识，虽有可能因为运气好而阶段性取得好业绩，但长期没有常识、不尊重常识，一定会输得一塌糊涂。</p>\n<p>什么是违背常识呢？这里，我给大家举几个常见的例子。</p>\n<p><b>第一，对商业模式的本质缺乏分析和认知。</b>很多人都听过WeWork，作为共享办公空间的龙头，WeWork曾经一度备受资本市场的青睐，大名鼎鼎的软银集团也投资了WeWork，估值最高曾到达470亿美元。但2019年，WeWork却上市失败，估值从高点回落至100亿到150亿。</p>\n<p>为什么连软银也折翼WeWork呢？<b>我认为，主要原因在于很多投资者对Wework商业模式的本质认知有偏差。</b>哪怕WeWork再把自己包装成一个互联网公司，但从本质上来说，它还是通过对固定资产的经营和提供增值服务来实现盈利，也就是“二房东”的商业模式，因为它既不符合双边平台效应，也不符合互联网赢家通吃的特征。</p>\n<p>因此，WeWork的商业模式既不是互联网经济，也不是高科技企业，而是属于房地产经济，这也决定了其运用互联网思维，通过“烧钱”来获取客户，在逻辑上是错误的。</p>\n<p>2018年，当时的WeWork如日中天，我们有机会投资入股。但当我们看到WeWork的惊人估值时，当时也充满疑惑，为什么一个“二房东”模式的公司估值这么贵？后来因为一些技术性原因，我们没有入股，事后来看还是运气很好。</p>\n<p><b>第二，只看需求侧逻辑（行业空间）不看供给侧逻辑（竞争格局）。</b>在股票投资中，很多人可能会优先选择成长性高、想象空间大的行业。选择成长性高、想象空间大的行业当然没有错，但不能把需求侧逻辑作为唯一的判断依据，如果忽略供给侧的分析，同样会违背常识。当一个行业高速成长，行业内的企业可以获得超额利润时，想要进入这个行业的人必然很多，竞争一定会变得激烈，最终使得超额利润消失。但是，如果这个行业具有良好的供给侧竞争格局，可以帮助里边的企业长时间内获得超额利润。</p>\n<p>美国汽车行业的发展始于19世纪80年代，由于汽油和内燃机的发明和应用，亨利·福特成功地研发出第一辆四轮车，从而开启了美国汽车的大门。随着美国经济的迅速发展，汽车行业迎来快速爆发期，1965年美国汽车销量就首次突破1000万辆，而我国是到了2009年才突破这个数据，回到100年前，汽车行业无疑是最具爆发潜力的行业。</p>\n<p>需求端的爆发带动美国的车企如雨后春笋般出现，美国先后出现了上千家汽车厂商。但到了现在，美国历史上曾经出现过的绝大部分汽车厂商已经不复存在，现在的三大汽车巨头中（通用汽车、福特、克莱斯勒），除了福特，全部破产过一遍。</p>\n<p>现在，市场对电动汽车的追逐可以类比于美国汽车行业的高速发展期，从需求端来看无疑是一个高速增长的行业，行业未来空间很大。但同时我们也需要注意到行业内的汽车品牌众多，资本不断涌入这个行业，最终究竟谁能真正脱颖而出是一个值得我们思考的问题。</p>\n<p>对于股票投资来说，行业高增长固然是好事，但同时我们不能不看行业的竞争格局，因为只有良好的竞争格局才能帮助企业持续稳定地获取超额利润。</p>\n<p><b>第三，忘记估值和安全边际。</b>安全边际是重要的投资原则之一，用巴菲特的话说，安全边际就是用4毛钱的价格去购买价值1元钱的股票。预测未来很难，而安全边际的存在可以帮助我们降低预测未来的难度，并且安全边际越大，决策的容错度越高，投资者的潜在投资回报率也越高。相反，高估值不仅会降低投资者未来的投资回报率，而且还会降低决策的容错能力，一旦判断错误，股价将会迎来戴维斯双杀。</p>\n<p>但是，许多投资者在投资中经常会忘记估值和安全边际，这也是违背常识的表现。在上世纪70年代初，美股的“漂亮50”得到投资者的青睐，估值得到大幅提升，很多公司的估值被推升到80多倍、90多倍。而估值泡沫破灭之后，很多公司的市盈率回落到9到18倍。如果投资者在高点买入“漂亮50”公司的股票，将会在很长一段时间内不赚钱甚至亏钱。</p>\n<p>在A股，这样的故事也在重演。2020年底到2021年初，以茅台为代表的基金抱团重仓的“核心资产”，估值普遍高达60、70倍甚至100倍以上；2021年春节后抱团瓦解，很多股票出现大幅度下跌。以贵州茅台为例，2021年2月10日贵州茅台的动态市盈率最高达70多倍，到2021年7月底贵州茅台的动态市盈率回落到40倍左右。</p>\n<p><b>第四，违反能力圈原则。</b>能力圈原则也是重要的投资原则之一，但却被很多人所忽视，大家经常在没有彻底搞懂一家公司的情况下就草率买入。巴菲特和芒格一直坚持能力圈这一原则，只买自己能看得懂的股票，对于自己能力圈之外的股票坚持不碰。</p>\n<p><b>他们把公司分为三类：可以投资的、不能投资的、太难理解的。</b>对他们来说，大部分公司被归到“不能投资”和“太难理解”之列，例如制药和高科技行业他们就归为“太难理解”的行业，这也导致他们错失了很多伟大的投资机会。但即便如此，巴菲特60多年来的年化投资收益率依然维持在20%以上。相反，大多数投资者投资失败的一个重要原因，是他们违反了能力圈原则，买了自己能力圈之外的股票。</p>\n<p>现实生活中，还有很多违背常识的案例，哪怕是机构投资者，有时候也会犯常识性错误，所以，如何强调“重视常识、回归常识”都不为过。那为什么很多投资者包括“专业投资者”经常做出违反常识的决策呢？</p>\n<p>我认为主要有以下三个方面的原因：</p>\n<p><b>第一，缺乏系统的决策框架。</b>投资的方法论有很多，有价值投资的、有趋势投资的、有量化投资的，都能赚到钱。但不管什么样的方法论，都需要形成一个逻辑自洽、回测合格、符合未来趋势的严密框架。</p>\n<p>逻辑自洽是有效投资策略的基本前提，投资决策的逻辑要能够形成一个闭环；个例的成功投资不属于有效的投资策略，只有能通过大样本检验的投资策略才是有效的；大样本回测合格也仅仅证明在过去有效，而在未来能否继续有效，还要看这个投资策略是否符合资本市场的发展趋势。</p>\n<p>如果没有符合上述标准的决策框架，决策就会很随意，也不可复制，但很多投资者没有一套属于自己的决策框架。</p>\n<p><b>第二，受短期业绩压力的影响。</b>很多基金经理虽然很清楚长期投资、价值投资的好处，但无奈他们面对的基民很看重短期业绩排名，或者受不了短期的业绩波动，当基金投资组合不适应当前的市场风格业绩表现不好时，可能会引发投资者的大量赎回。投资者的非理性行为会给基金经理施加压力，迫使他们为了争取更好的短期业绩而去适应市场、追逐市场热点，甚至被迫参与博弈交易，做出有违常识的决策。</p>\n<p><b>第三，受非理性决策行为的影响。</b>传统的经济和金融学理论认为，人是理性的，并在此基础上提出了有效市场假说。但在现实生活中，人并非理性，甚至大部分时间是非理性的。</p>\n<p>曾获得诺贝尔经济学奖的丹尼尔·卡尼曼在他的名著《思考，快与慢》中把人的决策系统分为系统1和系统2，系统1是一个快速的、自动的、潜意识的，以及通常受情绪驱动的认知系统，迅速做出决策但经常出错；而系统2则相反，它的运作是缓慢的、受控制的、耗费脑力资源的，用系统2决策相对缓慢但不容易出错。</p>\n<p>对很多人来说，用系统1决策是天性，他们没有培养出主动应用系统2来思考的习惯。因此，人们经常做出非理性决策而不自知。在股票投资中，即使投资理论和知识在不断完善，但由于人性上的弱点，人们经常不可避免地会做出一些非理性行为，即使是机构投资者也无法幸免。</p>\n<p>常识在价值投资中至关重要，为此我在2019年出版了《长期的力量》一书，提供了一个基本面投研的基本框架，由中信出版社出版，出版后深受好评，在豆瓣等平台上的评分也不低。这是一本入门级的价值投资书籍，深度还有欠缺。为了弥补这一不足，我写了《常识的力量》，很快也将由中信出版社出版。</p>\n<p>这本书根据我多年的从业经验，总结了价值投资所需要遵循的常识，包括关于行业竞争的常识、关于公司竞争力的常识、关于公司估值的常识、关于投资策略的常识等，不仅帮助普通投资者树立价值投资的理念，更帮助普通投资者回归投资的本质，构建完善的价值投资体系。</p>\n<p>另外还总结了投资者决策中常见的心理误区，应如何克服人性的恐惧和贪婪，并罗列了价值投资者的常识清单。</p>\n<p>本书中的“常识”，是我自己对价值投资的思考和理解，但未必是所有人的认知。比如对于“行业竞争格局和行业成长空间哪个更重要”这个话题，大家由于投资哲学和投资方法论的差异，结论是完全不一样的。但不管如何，我希望这些“常识”，能帮助大家提供一个深度思考的视角，帮助大家避免思维上的盲区。</p>","source":"lsy1571362674393","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n为什么只有少数投资者，能在股市中赚到钱？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-25 11:07 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzA3ODI5NDg0Mw==&mid=2654147000&idx=2&sn=b32c9f0f6825a3d6c733096cb4625f99&chksm=84834becb3f4c2fac91362ce750e26b5fc2df8f89167060afe44c195864fe9c992e0eff25279&mpshare=1&scene=1&srcid=08247zGBDFqNX4kVlixZBNi7&sharer_sharetime=1629764203649&sharer_shareid=5ec3942ede706772360a252a7c21f39b&version=3.1.2.6203&platform=mac#rd><strong>秦朔朋友圈</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>截至2021年6月30日，我国资本市场个人投资者总数已达1.88亿，占投资者总数的比例达99.77%，占全国总人口的比例12.8%。\n在这么多投资者当中，真正在股市投资中赚到钱的可能是少数，所以有“七亏两平一赚”的说法。为什么这么多投资者投资亏损，原因都是违背了常识。如果我们投资中违背常识，虽有可能因为运气好而阶段性取得好业绩，但长期没有常识、不尊重常识，一定会输得一塌糊涂。\n什么是违背常识呢？...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzA3ODI5NDg0Mw==&mid=2654147000&idx=2&sn=b32c9f0f6825a3d6c733096cb4625f99&chksm=84834becb3f4c2fac91362ce750e26b5fc2df8f89167060afe44c195864fe9c992e0eff25279&mpshare=1&scene=1&srcid=08247zGBDFqNX4kVlixZBNi7&sharer_sharetime=1629764203649&sharer_shareid=5ec3942ede706772360a252a7c21f39b&version=3.1.2.6203&platform=mac#rd\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad2dd670f9557c66480c84fc5e4bd415","relate_stocks":{"000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzA3ODI5NDg0Mw==&mid=2654147000&idx=2&sn=b32c9f0f6825a3d6c733096cb4625f99&chksm=84834becb3f4c2fac91362ce750e26b5fc2df8f89167060afe44c195864fe9c992e0eff25279&mpshare=1&scene=1&srcid=08247zGBDFqNX4kVlixZBNi7&sharer_sharetime=1629764203649&sharer_shareid=5ec3942ede706772360a252a7c21f39b&version=3.1.2.6203&platform=mac#rd","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154549598","content_text":"截至2021年6月30日，我国资本市场个人投资者总数已达1.88亿，占投资者总数的比例达99.77%，占全国总人口的比例12.8%。\n在这么多投资者当中，真正在股市投资中赚到钱的可能是少数，所以有“七亏两平一赚”的说法。为什么这么多投资者投资亏损，原因都是违背了常识。如果我们投资中违背常识，虽有可能因为运气好而阶段性取得好业绩，但长期没有常识、不尊重常识，一定会输得一塌糊涂。\n什么是违背常识呢？这里，我给大家举几个常见的例子。\n第一，对商业模式的本质缺乏分析和认知。很多人都听过WeWork，作为共享办公空间的龙头，WeWork曾经一度备受资本市场的青睐，大名鼎鼎的软银集团也投资了WeWork，估值最高曾到达470亿美元。但2019年，WeWork却上市失败，估值从高点回落至100亿到150亿。\n为什么连软银也折翼WeWork呢？我认为，主要原因在于很多投资者对Wework商业模式的本质认知有偏差。哪怕WeWork再把自己包装成一个互联网公司，但从本质上来说，它还是通过对固定资产的经营和提供增值服务来实现盈利，也就是“二房东”的商业模式，因为它既不符合双边平台效应，也不符合互联网赢家通吃的特征。\n因此，WeWork的商业模式既不是互联网经济，也不是高科技企业，而是属于房地产经济，这也决定了其运用互联网思维，通过“烧钱”来获取客户，在逻辑上是错误的。\n2018年，当时的WeWork如日中天，我们有机会投资入股。但当我们看到WeWork的惊人估值时，当时也充满疑惑，为什么一个“二房东”模式的公司估值这么贵？后来因为一些技术性原因，我们没有入股，事后来看还是运气很好。\n第二，只看需求侧逻辑（行业空间）不看供给侧逻辑（竞争格局）。在股票投资中，很多人可能会优先选择成长性高、想象空间大的行业。选择成长性高、想象空间大的行业当然没有错，但不能把需求侧逻辑作为唯一的判断依据，如果忽略供给侧的分析，同样会违背常识。当一个行业高速成长，行业内的企业可以获得超额利润时，想要进入这个行业的人必然很多，竞争一定会变得激烈，最终使得超额利润消失。但是，如果这个行业具有良好的供给侧竞争格局，可以帮助里边的企业长时间内获得超额利润。\n美国汽车行业的发展始于19世纪80年代，由于汽油和内燃机的发明和应用，亨利·福特成功地研发出第一辆四轮车，从而开启了美国汽车的大门。随着美国经济的迅速发展，汽车行业迎来快速爆发期，1965年美国汽车销量就首次突破1000万辆，而我国是到了2009年才突破这个数据，回到100年前，汽车行业无疑是最具爆发潜力的行业。\n需求端的爆发带动美国的车企如雨后春笋般出现，美国先后出现了上千家汽车厂商。但到了现在，美国历史上曾经出现过的绝大部分汽车厂商已经不复存在，现在的三大汽车巨头中（通用汽车、福特、克莱斯勒），除了福特，全部破产过一遍。\n现在，市场对电动汽车的追逐可以类比于美国汽车行业的高速发展期，从需求端来看无疑是一个高速增长的行业，行业未来空间很大。但同时我们也需要注意到行业内的汽车品牌众多，资本不断涌入这个行业，最终究竟谁能真正脱颖而出是一个值得我们思考的问题。\n对于股票投资来说，行业高增长固然是好事，但同时我们不能不看行业的竞争格局，因为只有良好的竞争格局才能帮助企业持续稳定地获取超额利润。\n第三，忘记估值和安全边际。安全边际是重要的投资原则之一，用巴菲特的话说，安全边际就是用4毛钱的价格去购买价值1元钱的股票。预测未来很难，而安全边际的存在可以帮助我们降低预测未来的难度，并且安全边际越大，决策的容错度越高，投资者的潜在投资回报率也越高。相反，高估值不仅会降低投资者未来的投资回报率，而且还会降低决策的容错能力，一旦判断错误，股价将会迎来戴维斯双杀。\n但是，许多投资者在投资中经常会忘记估值和安全边际，这也是违背常识的表现。在上世纪70年代初，美股的“漂亮50”得到投资者的青睐，估值得到大幅提升，很多公司的估值被推升到80多倍、90多倍。而估值泡沫破灭之后，很多公司的市盈率回落到9到18倍。如果投资者在高点买入“漂亮50”公司的股票，将会在很长一段时间内不赚钱甚至亏钱。\n在A股，这样的故事也在重演。2020年底到2021年初，以茅台为代表的基金抱团重仓的“核心资产”，估值普遍高达60、70倍甚至100倍以上；2021年春节后抱团瓦解，很多股票出现大幅度下跌。以贵州茅台为例，2021年2月10日贵州茅台的动态市盈率最高达70多倍，到2021年7月底贵州茅台的动态市盈率回落到40倍左右。\n第四，违反能力圈原则。能力圈原则也是重要的投资原则之一，但却被很多人所忽视，大家经常在没有彻底搞懂一家公司的情况下就草率买入。巴菲特和芒格一直坚持能力圈这一原则，只买自己能看得懂的股票，对于自己能力圈之外的股票坚持不碰。\n他们把公司分为三类：可以投资的、不能投资的、太难理解的。对他们来说，大部分公司被归到“不能投资”和“太难理解”之列，例如制药和高科技行业他们就归为“太难理解”的行业，这也导致他们错失了很多伟大的投资机会。但即便如此，巴菲特60多年来的年化投资收益率依然维持在20%以上。相反，大多数投资者投资失败的一个重要原因，是他们违反了能力圈原则，买了自己能力圈之外的股票。\n现实生活中，还有很多违背常识的案例，哪怕是机构投资者，有时候也会犯常识性错误，所以，如何强调“重视常识、回归常识”都不为过。那为什么很多投资者包括“专业投资者”经常做出违反常识的决策呢？\n我认为主要有以下三个方面的原因：\n第一，缺乏系统的决策框架。投资的方法论有很多，有价值投资的、有趋势投资的、有量化投资的，都能赚到钱。但不管什么样的方法论，都需要形成一个逻辑自洽、回测合格、符合未来趋势的严密框架。\n逻辑自洽是有效投资策略的基本前提，投资决策的逻辑要能够形成一个闭环；个例的成功投资不属于有效的投资策略，只有能通过大样本检验的投资策略才是有效的；大样本回测合格也仅仅证明在过去有效，而在未来能否继续有效，还要看这个投资策略是否符合资本市场的发展趋势。\n如果没有符合上述标准的决策框架，决策就会很随意，也不可复制，但很多投资者没有一套属于自己的决策框架。\n第二，受短期业绩压力的影响。很多基金经理虽然很清楚长期投资、价值投资的好处，但无奈他们面对的基民很看重短期业绩排名，或者受不了短期的业绩波动，当基金投资组合不适应当前的市场风格业绩表现不好时，可能会引发投资者的大量赎回。投资者的非理性行为会给基金经理施加压力，迫使他们为了争取更好的短期业绩而去适应市场、追逐市场热点，甚至被迫参与博弈交易，做出有违常识的决策。\n第三，受非理性决策行为的影响。传统的经济和金融学理论认为，人是理性的，并在此基础上提出了有效市场假说。但在现实生活中，人并非理性，甚至大部分时间是非理性的。\n曾获得诺贝尔经济学奖的丹尼尔·卡尼曼在他的名著《思考，快与慢》中把人的决策系统分为系统1和系统2，系统1是一个快速的、自动的、潜意识的，以及通常受情绪驱动的认知系统，迅速做出决策但经常出错；而系统2则相反，它的运作是缓慢的、受控制的、耗费脑力资源的，用系统2决策相对缓慢但不容易出错。\n对很多人来说，用系统1决策是天性，他们没有培养出主动应用系统2来思考的习惯。因此，人们经常做出非理性决策而不自知。在股票投资中，即使投资理论和知识在不断完善，但由于人性上的弱点，人们经常不可避免地会做出一些非理性行为，即使是机构投资者也无法幸免。\n常识在价值投资中至关重要，为此我在2019年出版了《长期的力量》一书，提供了一个基本面投研的基本框架，由中信出版社出版，出版后深受好评，在豆瓣等平台上的评分也不低。这是一本入门级的价值投资书籍，深度还有欠缺。为了弥补这一不足，我写了《常识的力量》，很快也将由中信出版社出版。\n这本书根据我多年的从业经验，总结了价值投资所需要遵循的常识，包括关于行业竞争的常识、关于公司竞争力的常识、关于公司估值的常识、关于投资策略的常识等，不仅帮助普通投资者树立价值投资的理念，更帮助普通投资者回归投资的本质，构建完善的价值投资体系。\n另外还总结了投资者决策中常见的心理误区，应如何克服人性的恐惧和贪婪，并罗列了价值投资者的常识清单。\n本书中的“常识”，是我自己对价值投资的思考和理解，但未必是所有人的认知。比如对于“行业竞争格局和行业成长空间哪个更重要”这个话题，大家由于投资哲学和投资方法论的差异，结论是完全不一样的。但不管如何，我希望这些“常识”，能帮助大家提供一个深度思考的视角，帮助大家避免思维上的盲区。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":561,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":838599767,"gmtCreate":1629417785959,"gmtModify":1631886992402,"author":{"id":"3568372856206236","authorId":"3568372856206236","name":"Chris_3219","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8970adf2d9a5b67bbc9e7e39c20a1bd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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3标准续航升级版和长续航版起售价均上调500美元，现分别为3.849万美元和4.749万美元。Model 3 Performance高性能版起售价为5.699万美元，此前为5.599万美元，上调1000美元。Model Y长续航版起售价为5.049万美元，此前为4.999万美元，上调500美元。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c37e2b050b955b1a34b617021b1fb43","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2126026237","content_text":"4月9日讯，据特斯拉美国官网：特斯拉Model 3标准续航升级版和长续航版起售价均上调500美元，现分别为3.849万美元和4.749万美元。Model 3 Performance高性能版起售价为5.699万美元，此前为5.599万美元，上调1000美元。Model 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06:32","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"摩根士丹利据称在Archegos爆仓前夜卖出50亿美元持仓","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2125716053","media":"格隆汇","summary":"格隆汇4月7日丨据CNBC，上周四摩根士丹利在取得Archegos资本同意的情况下向部分对冲基金折价卖出价值50亿美元的美国媒体股和中概股。此举也避免华尔街巨头在后续数日的抛售潮中遭受巨额损失。作为“动作慢”的代表，周二瑞士信贷公告称在Archegos事件中损失47亿美元，投资银行、风控部门负责人引咎辞职。","content":"<p>4月7日，据CNBC，上周四<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>在取得Archegos资本同意的情况下向部分对冲基金折价卖出价值50亿美元的美国媒体股和中概股。此举也避免华尔街巨头在后续数日的抛售潮中遭受巨额损失。作为“动作慢”的代表，周二<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">瑞士信贷</a>公告称在Archegos事件中损失47亿美元，投资银行、风控部门负责人引咎辞职。</p>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>摩根士丹利据称在Archegos爆仓前夜卖出50亿美元持仓</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n摩根士丹利据称在Archegos爆仓前夜卖出50亿美元持仓\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-07 06:32 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202104070703467b70e4a4&s=b><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>4月7日，据CNBC，上周四摩根士丹利在取得Archegos资本同意的情况下向部分对冲基金折价卖出价值50亿美元的美国媒体股和中概股。此举也避免华尔街巨头在后续数日的抛售潮中遭受巨额损失。作为“动作慢”的代表，周二瑞士信贷公告称在Archegos事件中损失47亿美元，投资银行、风控部门负责人引咎辞职。</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202104070703467b70e4a4&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24fa8350588843d92f819ac12ab5ce16","relate_stocks":{"MS":"摩根士丹利"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202104070703467b70e4a4&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2125716053","content_text":"4月7日，据CNBC，上周四摩根士丹利在取得Archegos资本同意的情况下向部分对冲基金折价卖出价值50亿美元的美国媒体股和中概股。此举也避免华尔街巨头在后续数日的抛售潮中遭受巨额损失。作为“动作慢”的代表，周二瑞士信贷公告称在Archegos事件中损失47亿美元，投资银行、风控部门负责人引咎辞职。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":49,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":341004676,"gmtCreate":1617759523895,"gmtModify":1631888304493,"author":{"id":"3568372856206236","authorId":"3568372856206236","name":"Chris_3219","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8970adf2d9a5b67bbc9e7e39c20a1bd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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