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锐信资本
个人简介:职业投资人,清华大学计算机硕士,美国伯克利HAAS商学院MBA,长江商学院 EMBA,CFA;如有问题咨询请私信。
IP属地:四川
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锐信资本
03-28 21:10
央行大放水
央行大放水
锐信资本
03-28 02:03
大饼减半2:影响
大饼减半2:影响
锐信资本
03-27 00:36
日本加息后出现了搞笑的一幕
日本加息后出现了搞笑的一幕
锐信资本
03-26
谁说我们今年做不到3%的通胀目标?
谁说我们今年做不到3%的通胀目标?
锐信资本
03-24
先立后破推动改革
先立后破推动改革
锐信资本
03-23
大饼减半(1) : 原理
大饼减半(1) : 原理
锐信资本
03-23
人民币为什么突然下跌
人民币为什么突然下跌
锐信资本
03-22
美国经济看起来有滞涨的苗头新
美国经济看起来有滞涨的苗头新
锐信资本
03-20
万科会不会违约?
万科会不会违约?
锐信资本
03-18
迎接刺激的一周
看国际市场的朋友得准备迎接本周的重要宏观事件了。 两个关键词:央行决议和人工智能。 央行决议这边第一重要的当然是看美联储的本周的利率决议。基本板上钉钉就是不加也不降息。利率不变。 但是核心我们要看点阵图的内容。 到底这边委员们是预测今年要降息几次呢? 市场现在真金白银交易出来预测是降3次。 不过考虑到美国强劲的就业。至少拜登政府发的数据是这样哦。 以及1,2月高企的通胀。那最后出来的结果是少于3次也很有可能的。 这会让债市出现波动从而也影响到股市。 另外重要一点大家还得看美联储的当前的缩表计划会不会改变。 目前逆回购的量不多了。吃不下政府继续疯狂发的短债。 我看前一阵子鲍威尔暗示。美联储可以重新购买政府短债,然后长债和抵押贷款继续缩。甚至整体缩表月体量也可能放慢。 我感觉也是一个不错的解决方案。 本周还有其他西方国家如果英国,加拿大这些央行的利率决议。 不过影响不大。大概率也是保持利率不变。 大家重点要关注是周二的日本央行决议。具体决议内容预测大家停下来看这个图就好。 这可是日本这么多年首次加息结束负利率和收益率曲线控制YCC。 过去20多年的3次日本这种加息都导致了A股和美股暴跌。这次是不是这样。让我们拭目以待。 行业AI这边最重磅的就是英伟达本周的GTC大会。 看点就是下一代AI芯片,人形机器人,以及AI在航空航天,金融,医药行业等领域的应用。 这个会议还会影响其他AI大咖公司参会或者同时开会。 比方说甲骨文就说了要在峰会上宣布和NVDA的进一步合作机会。估计芯片可是要大买特买。 微软会同时开线上新品发布会,大概率也是和AI 有关。 AMD也说要在周四开AIPC大会。这可是人工智能的盛宴。 相关股票也会出现大幅波动。 顺便说一下。大家别以为英伟达开GTC大会股票就会涨。 我看前几次开会都是阶段高点。股票会回撤一下。然后再涨。 当然你把它看成一个上车机会也可以。 所以综上
迎接刺激的一周
锐信资本
03-18
我国2月社融数据
我国2月社融数据
锐信资本
03-16
TikTok命悬一线
TikTok命悬一线
锐信资本
03-16
大饼的流动性危机
大饼的流动性危机
锐信资本
03-15
为什么美国居民比我们更愿意花钱消费
为什么美国居民比我们更愿意花钱消费
锐信资本
03-14
黄金为什么大涨?
黄金为什么大涨?
锐信资本
03-13
美国2月通胀很热,为什么股市还是涨了!
美国2月通胀很热,为什么股市还是涨了!
锐信资本
03-10
完美的美国2月官方就业数据
美国拜登政府希望就业数据好,这样可以吹嘘一下自己的政绩。 股市希望就业数据差点。 这样让美联储早点降息。 怎么把这两者协调起来呢? 劳工局绞尽脑汁还真做到了。 你看啊。 2月官方非农就业数据27.5万大超预期的20万。 拜登又可以吹嘘一个月了吧。 只不过大家也不傻。 这把戏大家也看出来。第一:2月非农就业超预期的同时劳工局把1月就业数据大幅调低。这次调的还很猛。直接从35.2万调低到22.9万调低了35%。第二: 官方非农就业给的是按岗位算的数据。 有一个人打多份工的情况。 大家也会去看看看按人头算的家庭就业调查数据。不算一个人打多份工。2月就业可是跌的哦。 跌的还挺多跌了18.4万。 岗位数据和家庭数据现在是每个月差距都在继续拉大。 什么原因我也给大家说过。 一个关键词就是非法移民。 非法移民的工作能被企业岗位问卷调查到,但是家庭调查根本碰不到这些人的。 所以差异大。 非法 移民多了是不是坏事大家可以考虑一下。 不过的确也算进美国消费和GDP的。 所以也是可以让现任政府吹嘘的哦 。好。 那为什么市场对这次就业数据也满意呢? 因为劳工局很明智的把这次的失业率给做到了3.9%。两年来新高。 高于预期的3.7% 同时平均工资年化增长也从4.4%降到4.3%。 所以也给美联储继续高息一点压力。 堪称完美!
完美的美国2月官方就业数据
锐信资本
03-10
美联储今年全年都不会降息?
美联储今年全年都不会降息?
锐信资本
03-09
减肥药和GDP
减肥药和GDP
锐信资本
03-09
减肥药和GDP
减肥药和GDP
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股市希望就业数据差点。 这样让美联储早点降息。 怎么把这两者协调起来呢? 劳工局绞尽脑汁还真做到了。 你看啊。 2月官方非农就业数据27.5万大超预期的20万。 拜登又可以吹嘘一个月了吧。 只不过大家也不傻。 这把戏大家也看出来。第一:2月非农就业超预期的同时劳工局把1月就业数据大幅调低。这次调的还很猛。直接从35.2万调低到22.9万调低了35%。第二: 官方非农就业给的是按岗位算的数据。 有一个人打多份工的情况。 大家也会去看看看按人头算的家庭就业调查数据。不算一个人打多份工。2月就业可是跌的哦。 跌的还挺多跌了18.4万。 岗位数据和家庭数据现在是每个月差距都在继续拉大。 什么原因我也给大家说过。 一个关键词就是非法移民。 非法移民的工作能被企业岗位问卷调查到,但是家庭调查根本碰不到这些人的。 所以差异大。 非法 移民多了是不是坏事大家可以考虑一下。 不过的确也算进美国消费和GDP的。 所以也是可以让现任政府吹嘘的哦 。好。 那为什么市场对这次就业数据也满意呢? 因为劳工局很明智的把这次的失业率给做到了3.9%。两年来新高。 高于预期的3.7% 同时平均工资年化增长也从4.4%降到4.3%。 所以也给美联储继续高息一点压力。 堪称完美! ","listText":"美国拜登政府希望就业数据好,这样可以吹嘘一下自己的政绩。 股市希望就业数据差点。 这样让美联储早点降息。 怎么把这两者协调起来呢? 劳工局绞尽脑汁还真做到了。 你看啊。 2月官方非农就业数据27.5万大超预期的20万。 拜登又可以吹嘘一个月了吧。 只不过大家也不傻。 这把戏大家也看出来。第一:2月非农就业超预期的同时劳工局把1月就业数据大幅调低。这次调的还很猛。直接从35.2万调低到22.9万调低了35%。第二: 官方非农就业给的是按岗位算的数据。 有一个人打多份工的情况。 大家也会去看看看按人头算的家庭就业调查数据。不算一个人打多份工。2月就业可是跌的哦。 跌的还挺多跌了18.4万。 岗位数据和家庭数据现在是每个月差距都在继续拉大。 什么原因我也给大家说过。 一个关键词就是非法移民。 非法移民的工作能被企业岗位问卷调查到,但是家庭调查根本碰不到这些人的。 所以差异大。 非法 移民多了是不是坏事大家可以考虑一下。 不过的确也算进美国消费和GDP的。 所以也是可以让现任政府吹嘘的哦 。好。 那为什么市场对这次就业数据也满意呢? 因为劳工局很明智的把这次的失业率给做到了3.9%。两年来新高。 高于预期的3.7% 同时平均工资年化增长也从4.4%降到4.3%。 所以也给美联储继续高息一点压力。 堪称完美! ","text":"美国拜登政府希望就业数据好,这样可以吹嘘一下自己的政绩。 股市希望就业数据差点。 这样让美联储早点降息。 怎么把这两者协调起来呢? 劳工局绞尽脑汁还真做到了。 你看啊。 2月官方非农就业数据27.5万大超预期的20万。 拜登又可以吹嘘一个月了吧。 只不过大家也不傻。 这把戏大家也看出来。第一:2月非农就业超预期的同时劳工局把1月就业数据大幅调低。这次调的还很猛。直接从35.2万调低到22.9万调低了35%。第二: 官方非农就业给的是按岗位算的数据。 有一个人打多份工的情况。 大家也会去看看看按人头算的家庭就业调查数据。不算一个人打多份工。2月就业可是跌的哦。 跌的还挺多跌了18.4万。 岗位数据和家庭数据现在是每个月差距都在继续拉大。 什么原因我也给大家说过。 一个关键词就是非法移民。 非法移民的工作能被企业岗位问卷调查到,但是家庭调查根本碰不到这些人的。 所以差异大。 非法 移民多了是不是坏事大家可以考虑一下。 不过的确也算进美国消费和GDP的。 所以也是可以让现任政府吹嘘的哦 。好。 那为什么市场对这次就业数据也满意呢? 因为劳工局很明智的把这次的失业率给做到了3.9%。两年来新高。 高于预期的3.7% 同时平均工资年化增长也从4.4%降到4.3%。 所以也给美联储继续高息一点压力。 堪称完美!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/282860934824024","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":361,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":282511156859088,"gmtCreate":1710000960105,"gmtModify":1710033277259,"author":{"id":"3565306160488916","authorId":"3565306160488916","name":"锐信资本","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f3b92a510cef2a3a3213c05cf857b27","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"title":"美联储今年全年都不会降息?","htmlText":"","listText":"","text":"","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/282511156859088","isVote":1,"tweetType":2,"object":{"id":"fd17ed08724340858854ef588e17fe3a","tweetId":"282511156859088","videoUrl":"https://1254107296.vod2.myqcloud.com/73ba5544vodgzp1254107296/e6909e5d1397757885771178265/HMjKJ3xvCFMA.mp4","poster":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e2d8967acd3a7d8540d3c51f90a0c15"},"viewCount":897,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":282170093875232,"gmtCreate":1709917565627,"gmtModify":1709918006279,"author":{"id":"3565306160488916","authorId":"3565306160488916","name":"锐信资本","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f3b92a510cef2a3a3213c05cf857b27","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"title":"减肥药和GDP","htmlText":"","listText":"","text":"","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/282170093875232","isVote":1,"tweetType":2,"object":{"id":"ca3fbcca212d4e44a613ecb52185dfc8","tweetId":"282170093875232","videoUrl":"https://1254107296.vod2.myqcloud.com/73ba5544vodgzp1254107296/8469f4151397757885732214458/qEY16fpyl7UA.mp4","poster":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dae32a5aa389b5b10ad9f196bb4e4a5f"},"viewCount":336,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":282168651509776,"gmtCreate":1709917216168,"gmtModify":1709917364133,"author":{"id":"3565306160488916","authorId":"3565306160488916","name":"锐信资本","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f3b92a510cef2a3a3213c05cf857b27","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"title":"减肥药和GDP","htmlText":"","listText":"","text":"","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/282168651509776","isVote":1,"tweetType":2,"object":{"id":"7dab4771bde345a5a4647c5c958de5f1","tweetId":"282168651509776","videoUrl":"https://1254107296.vod2.myqcloud.com/73ba5544vodgzp1254107296/cf1ffaef1397757885733122138/MOdOYjMjGK0A.mp4","poster":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dae32a5aa389b5b10ad9f196bb4e4a5f"},"viewCount":725,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[],"lives":[]}