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HengKuan

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2021-12-27

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2021-12-01

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2021-11-25

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2021-11-13

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@机构有话说:美股的利空是被暂时压制，突然爆发的一天可能不远了

2021-10-06

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2021-09-18

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2021-09-10

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@46d9935c:这些REITs好好：长期年化回报10%+

2021-09-03

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@Buy_Sell:🔥【9月2日】涨疯，中概再现集体大反弹！今天买什么？

2021-08-31

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2021-08-28

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2021-07-19

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在9月短暂的回调之后，美股在10月份重启涨势，并再创新高，且涨势持续到11月上旬。此前，我们担忧三大因素可能引发美股调整：美联储宣布削减QE带来实际利率反弹，美股三季报不及预期和美国高通胀。但实际情况是三季度降幅好于市场预期，由于经济前景不佳和美国财政部削减发债规模，美元名义利率在美联储宣布削减QE后并没有大幅攀升，利空暂时没有引爆。 然而，我们认为美股估值偏高，就连美联储发布半年度金融稳定报告也对美股涨势超过经济增长基本面而发出警告。因此对于美股而言，我们倾向于存在调整的风险因素，但是美股出现持续大幅度下跌可能性较小。从历史情况来看，除非美国爆发经济危机或金融危机，否则美股很容易因市场预期美联储不敢过度紧缩而重新回升。 触发美股调整的三个风险因素 从中短期来看，美股多空因素交织，但是触发调整的风险更大，具体因素包括以下几个方面： 一: 美联储宣布削减QE后意味着美联储货币政策进入紧缩周期。这也意味着全球货币宽松周期出现拐点，就算美股不会出现暴跌，但是也不容易继续扩大涨幅。回顾2013-2015年紧缩周期，美股在削减QE早期还存在惯性的冲高，但是中后期表现从高位震荡转为加息后的连续三个月下跌。 2013-2015年美联储削减QE路径：2013年12月美联储议息会议宣布2022年1月削减QE（每个月削减100亿MBS和50亿长期国债）——2014年11月结束QE——2015年12月17日开始美联储加息。 美股表现如下：2013年12月宣布2014年1月正式削减QE，2014年1月，美国标普500指数当月下跌了3.56%，跌幅较小，并在2015年2月前继续创新高，之后在2015年3月至12月加息前高位震荡。2015年12月宣布加息后，标普500指数连续下跌三个月。 二：美国财政支出法案规模不断缩水，2022年美国经济增长可能不够强劲。企业债务过高在美元名","listText":"来源：CMEGroup 在9月短暂的回调之后，美股在10月份重启涨势，并再创新高，且涨势持续到11月上旬。此前，我们担忧三大因素可能引发美股调整：美联储宣布削减QE带来实际利率反弹，美股三季报不及预期和美国高通胀。但实际情况是三季度降幅好于市场预期，由于经济前景不佳和美国财政部削减发债规模，美元名义利率在美联储宣布削减QE后并没有大幅攀升，利空暂时没有引爆。 然而，我们认为美股估值偏高，就连美联储发布半年度金融稳定报告也对美股涨势超过经济增长基本面而发出警告。因此对于美股而言，我们倾向于存在调整的风险因素，但是美股出现持续大幅度下跌可能性较小。从历史情况来看，除非美国爆发经济危机或金融危机，否则美股很容易因市场预期美联储不敢过度紧缩而重新回升。 触发美股调整的三个风险因素 从中短期来看，美股多空因素交织，但是触发调整的风险更大，具体因素包括以下几个方面： 一: 美联储宣布削减QE后意味着美联储货币政策进入紧缩周期。这也意味着全球货币宽松周期出现拐点，就算美股不会出现暴跌，但是也不容易继续扩大涨幅。回顾2013-2015年紧缩周期，美股在削减QE早期还存在惯性的冲高，但是中后期表现从高位震荡转为加息后的连续三个月下跌。 2013-2015年美联储削减QE路径：2013年12月美联储议息会议宣布2022年1月削减QE（每个月削减100亿MBS和50亿长期国债）——2014年11月结束QE——2015年12月17日开始美联储加息。 美股表现如下：2013年12月宣布2014年1月正式削减QE，2014年1月，美国标普500指数当月下跌了3.56%，跌幅较小，并在2015年2月前继续创新高，之后在2015年3月至12月加息前高位震荡。2015年12月宣布加息后，标普500指数连续下跌三个月。 二：美国财政支出法案规模不断缩水，2022年美国经济增长可能不够强劲。企业债务过高在美元名","text":"来源：CMEGroup 在9月短暂的回调之后，美股在10月份重启涨势，并再创新高，且涨势持续到11月上旬。此前，我们担忧三大因素可能引发美股调整：美联储宣布削减QE带来实际利率反弹，美股三季报不及预期和美国高通胀。但实际情况是三季度降幅好于市场预期，由于经济前景不佳和美国财政部削减发债规模，美元名义利率在美联储宣布削减QE后并没有大幅攀升，利空暂时没有引爆。 然而，我们认为美股估值偏高，就连美联储发布半年度金融稳定报告也对美股涨势超过经济增长基本面而发出警告。因此对于美股而言，我们倾向于存在调整的风险因素，但是美股出现持续大幅度下跌可能性较小。从历史情况来看，除非美国爆发经济危机或金融危机，否则美股很容易因市场预期美联储不敢过度紧缩而重新回升。 触发美股调整的三个风险因素 从中短期来看，美股多空因素交织，但是触发调整的风险更大，具体因素包括以下几个方面： 一: 美联储宣布削减QE后意味着美联储货币政策进入紧缩周期。这也意味着全球货币宽松周期出现拐点，就算美股不会出现暴跌，但是也不容易继续扩大涨幅。回顾2013-2015年紧缩周期，美股在削减QE早期还存在惯性的冲高，但是中后期表现从高位震荡转为加息后的连续三个月下跌。 2013-2015年美联储削减QE路径：2013年12月美联储议息会议宣布2022年1月削减QE（每个月削减100亿MBS和50亿长期国债）——2014年11月结束QE——2015年12月17日开始美联储加息。 美股表现如下：2013年12月宣布2014年1月正式削减QE，2014年1月，美国标普500指数当月下跌了3.56%，跌幅较小，并在2015年2月前继续创新高，之后在2015年3月至12月加息前高位震荡。2015年12月宣布加息后，标普500指数连续下跌三个月。 二：美国财政支出法案规模不断缩水，2022年美国经济增长可能不够强劲。企业债务过高在美元名","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/493bd241b2cc511739e806ebe4a1f4cb","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/879195458","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2414,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":829374520,"gmtCreate":1633477873122,"gmtModify":1633477874763,"author":{"id":"3561674412609852","authorId":"3561674412609852","name":"HengKuan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62bcac9aecdc128035098328c87aa231","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561674412609852","idStr":"3561674412609852"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/829374520","repostId":"1101968131","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2626,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":884703338,"gmtCreate":1631930753424,"gmtModify":1632805269911,"author":{"id":"3561674412609852","authorId":"3561674412609852","name":"HengKuan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62bcac9aecdc128035098328c87aa231","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561674412609852","idStr":"3561674412609852"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/884703338","repostId":"2168716185","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1396,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":883608372,"gmtCreate":1631235869996,"gmtModify":1631890997818,"author":{"id":"3561674412609852","authorId":"3561674412609852","name":"HengKuan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62bcac9aecdc128035098328c87aa231","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561674412609852","idStr":"3561674412609852"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/883608372","repostId":"812145282","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":812145282,"gmtCreate":1630568582846,"gmtModify":1744960731245,"author":{"id":"3558937605407666","authorId":"3558937605407666","name":"46d9935c","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3558937605407666","idStr":"3558937605407666"},"themes":[],"title":"这些REITs好好：长期年化回报10%+","htmlText":"新加坡是全亚太的房地产投资信托基金领先市场，有50多挂牌的REITs和商业信托。大家千万别忘记了新加坡没有资本利得税，也对股息没有任何税或预扣。 REITs的优点是它们给投资者一个间接方式投资房产。由于 REITs和新加坡商业信托必须要把净利润之90%变成股息，发给股东，投资REITs是一个好方式进行资产配置多元化。 欢迎各位看一看新加坡交易所（S68）官方文章关于新加坡投资回报率最棒的REITs和商业信托[开心]&nbsp; <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ME8U.SI\">$丰树工业信托(ME8U.SI)$</a>&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/A17U.SI\">$腾飞房地产信托(A17U.SI)$</a>&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/M44U.SI\">$丰树物流信托(M44U.SI)$</a>&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CY6U.SI\">$腾飞印度信托(CY6U.SI)$</a>&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/N2IU.SI\">$丰树商业信托(N2IU.SI)$</a>&nbsp; 上市超过10年且表现最强劲的10只新加坡房托(S-REIT)和地产商业信托录得12.5%的10年平均年化总回报率。从10年的绝对值来看，这10只信托的平均总回报率达240%，REIT依然是投资者的首选长线资产类别。 相比之下，这10只信托也跑赢亚太地区主要REIT市场，后者同期平均总回报率为10.3%。 这10只信托中的回报前五名——丰树工业","listText":"新加坡是全亚太的房地产投资信托基金领先市场，有50多挂牌的REITs和商业信托。大家千万别忘记了新加坡没有资本利得税，也对股息没有任何税或预扣。 REITs的优点是它们给投资者一个间接方式投资房产。由于 REITs和新加坡商业信托必须要把净利润之90%变成股息，发给股东，投资REITs是一个好方式进行资产配置多元化。 欢迎各位看一看新加坡交易所（S68）官方文章关于新加坡投资回报率最棒的REITs和商业信托[开心]&nbsp; <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ME8U.SI\">$丰树工业信托(ME8U.SI)$</a>&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/A17U.SI\">$腾飞房地产信托(A17U.SI)$</a>&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/M44U.SI\">$丰树物流信托(M44U.SI)$</a>&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CY6U.SI\">$腾飞印度信托(CY6U.SI)$</a>&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/N2IU.SI\">$丰树商业信托(N2IU.SI)$</a>&nbsp; 上市超过10年且表现最强劲的10只新加坡房托(S-REIT)和地产商业信托录得12.5%的10年平均年化总回报率。从10年的绝对值来看，这10只信托的平均总回报率达240%，REIT依然是投资者的首选长线资产类别。 相比之下，这10只信托也跑赢亚太地区主要REIT市场，后者同期平均总回报率为10.3%。 这10只信托中的回报前五名——丰树工业","text":"新加坡是全亚太的房地产投资信托基金领先市场，有50多挂牌的REITs和商业信托。大家千万别忘记了新加坡没有资本利得税，也对股息没有任何税或预扣。 REITs的优点是它们给投资者一个间接方式投资房产。由于 REITs和新加坡商业信托必须要把净利润之90%变成股息，发给股东，投资REITs是一个好方式进行资产配置多元化。 欢迎各位看一看新加坡交易所（S68）官方文章关于新加坡投资回报率最棒的REITs和商业信托[开心] $丰树工业信托(ME8U.SI)$ $腾飞房地产信托(A17U.SI)$ $丰树物流信托(M44U.SI)$ $腾飞印度信托(CY6U.SI)$ $丰树商业信托(N2IU.SI)$ 上市超过10年且表现最强劲的10只新加坡房托(S-REIT)和地产商业信托录得12.5%的10年平均年化总回报率。从10年的绝对值来看，这10只信托的平均总回报率达240%，REIT依然是投资者的首选长线资产类别。 相比之下，这10只信托也跑赢亚太地区主要REIT市场，后者同期平均总回报率为10.3%。 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港股市场 9月2日，恒生指数开盘上涨175.23点，涨幅0.67%，报26203.52点；国企指数开盘上涨109.89点，涨幅1.19%，报9381.21点；红筹指数开盘下跌3.23点，跌幅0.08%，报3936.2点。 恒生科技指数高开近2%，科技股普遍走高，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">$美团-W(03690)$</a> 涨近4%，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$</a> 涨近3%，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$腾讯控股(00700)$</a> 涨超2%，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a> 涨超1%。 药品股强势，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06618\">$京东健康(06618)$</a> 涨3.5%，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01099\">$国药控股(01099)$</a> 、<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02196\">$复星医药(02196)$</a> 升超2%；乳业股、教育股、汽车股、烟草概念股、物业股多数上扬；香港银行股下跌明显，石油股、蓝筹地产股普跌。","listText":"聊聊今日份的交易想法，包括对于大盘走势后续的看法？看涨/看跌哪只股票、晒晒单等等。 港股市场 9月2日，恒生指数开盘上涨175.23点，涨幅0.67%，报26203.52点；国企指数开盘上涨109.89点，涨幅1.19%，报9381.21点；红筹指数开盘下跌3.23点，跌幅0.08%，报3936.2点。 恒生科技指数高开近2%，科技股普遍走高，<a target=\"_blank\" 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