luanluanlai的个人主页 - 老虎社区

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2021-12-25

Nice!!

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-12-25

Wooow

Russian court fines Alphabet's Google $98 million<blockquote>俄罗斯法院对Alphabet旗下谷歌罚款9800万美元</blockquote>

2021-12-25

Nice!

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-08-13

$Activision Blizzard(ATVI)$TP $100 [财迷]

2021-07-06

$SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD(C6L.SI)$breakout trade?

2021-07-06

$FRASERS CENTREPOINT TRUST(J69U.SI)$follow up from previous post, looks like breakout is coming!

2021-07-05

$TOP GLOVE CORPORATION BHD(BVA.SI)$road to $1

2021-07-03

$WILMAR INTERNATIONAL LIMITED(F34.SI)$also reaching support level. To see if level holds.

2021-07-03

Nice!

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-01

$FRASERS CENTREPOINT TRUST(J69U.SI)$trading in range, waiting for breakout.

2021-07-01

$KEPPEL DC REIT(AJBU.SI)$hanging by a thread. To see if it can survive this downtrend or if reversal is coming soon.All eyes on the MACD.

2021-06-12

Nice!

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-11

Happy birthday!!

@小虎活动:【七周年活动】安利老虎的日常

2021-03-16

Time to get some value

"We Are Sitting On An Incredibly Important Turning Point"<blockquote>“我们正处于一个极其重要的转折点”</blockquote>

2021-03-16

$UOL GROUP LIMITED(U14.SI)$Beautiful candle for today!

2021-03-10

$YANGZIJIANG SHIPBLDG HLDGS LTD(BS6.SI)$very strong price action today!

2021-03-07

$UOL GROUP LIMITED(U14.SI)$Entry into UOL at 7.4, 1st TP at 8.23.

2021-02-18

$MAPLELEAF EDU(01317)$Entered long position at 2.22, TP: 3.40, SL: 1.67Will have to monitor how does price react when approaching downtrend line.

2021-02-10

$Artificial Intelligence Technology Solutions Inc.(AITX)$[龇牙] [龇牙]

2021-02-01

$SINGAPORE TECH ENGINEERING LTD(S63.SI)$Entry at 3.71 after bounce from bottom of uptrend channel.TP at 3.94, SL at 3.60

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19:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Russian court fines Alphabet's Google $98 million<blockquote>俄罗斯法院对Alphabet旗下谷歌罚款9800万美元</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119237057","media":"RTE","summary":"A Moscow court has said it is fining Alphabet's Google 7.2 billion roubles ($98 million) for what it","content":"<p>A Moscow court has said it is fining Alphabet's Google 7.2 billion roubles ($98 million) for what it said was a repeated failure to delete content Russia deems illegal, the first revenue-based fine in this kind of case in Russia.</p><p><blockquote>莫斯科一家法院表示，将对Alphabet旗下的谷歌处以72亿卢布（9800万美元）的罚款，原因是谷歌多次未能删除俄罗斯认为非法的内容，这是俄罗斯此类案件中首次基于收入的罚款。</blockquote></p><p> Moscow has increased pressure on Big Tech this year in a campaign that critics characterise as an attempt by the Russian authorities to exert tighter control over the internet, something they say threatens to stifle individual and corporate freedom.</p><p><blockquote>莫斯科今年加大了对大型科技公司的压力，批评人士称这是俄罗斯当局试图对互联网施加更严格的控制，他们说这有可能扼杀个人和企业的自由。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1635981240902","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Russian court fines Alphabet's Google $98 million<blockquote>俄罗斯法院对Alphabet旗下谷歌罚款9800万美元</blockquote></title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRussian court fines Alphabet's Google $98 million<blockquote>俄罗斯法院对Alphabet旗下谷歌罚款9800万美元</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">RTE</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-24 19:36</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>A Moscow court has said it is fining Alphabet's Google 7.2 billion roubles ($98 million) for what it said was a repeated failure to delete content Russia deems illegal, the first revenue-based fine in this kind of case in Russia.</p><p><blockquote>莫斯科一家法院表示，将对Alphabet旗下的谷歌处以72亿卢布（9800万美元）的罚款，原因是谷歌多次未能删除俄罗斯认为非法的内容，这是俄罗斯此类案件中首次基于收入的罚款。</blockquote></p><p> Moscow has increased pressure on Big Tech this year in a campaign that critics characterise as an attempt by the Russian authorities to exert tighter control over the internet, something they say threatens to stifle individual and corporate freedom.</p><p><blockquote>莫斯科今年加大了对大型科技公司的压力，批评人士称这是俄罗斯当局试图对互联网施加更严格的控制，他们说这有可能扼杀个人和企业的自由。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2021/1224/1268555-russian-court-fines-alphabets-google-98-million/\">RTE</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GOOGL":"谷歌A","GOOG":"谷歌"},"source_url":"https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2021/1224/1268555-russian-court-fines-alphabets-google-98-million/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1119237057","content_text":"A Moscow court has said it is fining Alphabet's Google 7.2 billion roubles ($98 million) for what it said was a repeated failure to delete content Russia deems illegal, the first revenue-based fine in this kind of case in Russia.\nMoscow has increased pressure on Big Tech this year in a campaign that critics characterise as an attempt by the Russian authorities to exert tighter control over the internet, something they say threatens to stifle individual and corporate 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C6L.SI\">$SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD(C6L.SI)$</a>breakout trade?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C6L.SI\">$SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD(C6L.SI)$</a>breakout trade?","text":"$SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD(C6L.SI)$breakout trade?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30518e793673e59c08c54044a05883f7","width":"1080","height":"557"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/157839067","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2122,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":157898199,"gmtCreate":1625576557611,"gmtModify":1631885619444,"author":{"id":"3557877754400520","authorId":"3557877754400520","name":"luanluanlai","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557877754400520","authorIdStr":"3557877754400520"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/J69U.SI\">$FRASERS CENTREPOINT TRUST(J69U.SI)$</a>follow up from previous post, looks like breakout is coming!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/J69U.SI\">$FRASERS CENTREPOINT TRUST(J69U.SI)$</a>follow up from previous post, looks like breakout is coming!","text":"$FRASERS CENTREPOINT TRUST(J69U.SI)$follow up from previous post, looks like breakout is coming!","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06b5c3762f9bee028e365c6d725b7b08","width":"1080","height":"1787"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/157898199","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2145,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":155705240,"gmtCreate":1625451779180,"gmtModify":1631885045652,"author":{"id":"3557877754400520","authorId":"3557877754400520","name":"luanluanlai","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557877754400520","authorIdStr":"3557877754400520"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BVA.SI\">$TOP GLOVE CORPORATION BHD(BVA.SI)$</a>road to $1","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BVA.SI\">$TOP GLOVE CORPORATION BHD(BVA.SI)$</a>road to $1","text":"$TOP GLOVE CORPORATION BHD(BVA.SI)$road to $1","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73f13df9c1bbd38842ddb2034fabd146","width":"1080","height":"619"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/155705240","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2524,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":152824252,"gmtCreate":1625282374076,"gmtModify":1631885619457,"author":{"id":"3557877754400520","authorId":"3557877754400520","name":"luanluanlai","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557877754400520","authorIdStr":"3557877754400520"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F34.SI\">$WILMAR INTERNATIONAL LIMITED(F34.SI)$</a>also reaching support level. To see if level holds.","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F34.SI\">$WILMAR INTERNATIONAL LIMITED(F34.SI)$</a>also reaching support level. To see if level holds.","text":"$WILMAR INTERNATIONAL LIMITED(F34.SI)$also reaching support level. To see if level holds.","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff8893672f6cac892685e2c91fd59462","width":"1080","height":"619"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/152824252","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2690,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":152126327,"gmtCreate":1625277059569,"gmtModify":1631885619470,"author":{"id":"3557877754400520","authorId":"3557877754400520","name":"luanluanlai","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557877754400520","authorIdStr":"3557877754400520"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice!","listText":"Nice!","text":"Nice!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/152126327","repostId":"1165340887","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3639,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":151715153,"gmtCreate":1625106659772,"gmtModify":1631885619488,"author":{"id":"3557877754400520","authorId":"3557877754400520","name":"luanluanlai","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557877754400520","authorIdStr":"3557877754400520"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/J69U.SI\">$FRASERS CENTREPOINT TRUST(J69U.SI)$</a>trading in range, waiting for breakout.","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/J69U.SI\">$FRASERS CENTREPOINT TRUST(J69U.SI)$</a>trading in range, waiting for breakout.","text":"$FRASERS CENTREPOINT TRUST(J69U.SI)$trading in range, waiting for breakout.","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83cda2079c53ffc0f2cec9e956bf3ca2","width":"1080","height":"620"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/151715153","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2088,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":151713679,"gmtCreate":1625106472691,"gmtModify":1631885619497,"author":{"id":"3557877754400520","authorId":"3557877754400520","name":"luanluanlai","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557877754400520","authorIdStr":"3557877754400520"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AJBU.SI\">$KEPPEL DC REIT(AJBU.SI)$</a>hanging by a thread. To see if it can survive this downtrend or if reversal is coming soon.All eyes on the MACD.","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AJBU.SI\">$KEPPEL DC REIT(AJBU.SI)$</a>hanging by a thread. To see if it can survive this downtrend or if reversal is coming soon.All eyes on the MACD.","text":"$KEPPEL DC REIT(AJBU.SI)$hanging by a thread. To see if it can survive this downtrend or if reversal is coming soon.All eyes on the MACD.","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6880857412f402393081051b09db0e52","width":"1080","height":"613"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/151713679","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":544,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188592772,"gmtCreate":1623453863896,"gmtModify":1631885619510,"author":{"id":"3557877754400520","authorId":"3557877754400520","name":"luanluanlai","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557877754400520","authorIdStr":"3557877754400520"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice!","listText":"Nice!","text":"Nice!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/188592772","repostId":"2142204074","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":620,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181401234,"gmtCreate":1623404792928,"gmtModify":1631885619519,"author":{"id":"3557877754400520","authorId":"3557877754400520","name":"luanluanlai","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557877754400520","authorIdStr":"3557877754400520"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Happy birthday!!","listText":"Happy birthday!!","text":"Happy birthday!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/181401234","repostId":"183885782","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":183885782,"gmtCreate":1623321919742,"gmtModify":1741872587847,"author":{"id":"36984908995200","authorId":"36984908995200","name":"小虎活动","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e396d03155923b283948d2dec9191f8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"36984908995200","authorIdStr":"36984908995200"},"themes":[],"title":"【七周年活动】安利老虎的日常","htmlText":"有人说7年很短，如白驹过隙，转瞬即逝，但我却觉得7年很长，因为 7年等于84个月， 7年等于365个星期， 7年等于2555天， 7年等于61320小时， 7年等于3679200分钟， 7年等于394次研发迭代。 一路走来，我们经历过高光时刻，也有过低谷的蛰伏，有过争议，也有肯定。 幸运的是，一直有虎友陪伴我们前行，分享欢乐，共同成长。感谢每个屏幕前的你，是你把老虎送到另一个起点，军功章里有你的一半！ 2021年6月11日，老虎将迎来7周岁的生日。小虎君这回的生日愿望就是希望下一个七年能够再次与你相伴，也希望各位虎友们能多多给周围的朋友推荐老虎，让我们一起把老虎做大做强。~ 【参与方式】 欢迎大家在本帖“留言并转发”参与活动，或者在“安利老虎的日常”主题下发帖，分享你与老虎的点滴故事。为什么喜欢老虎？喜欢老虎的哪些地方？如何向别人推荐老虎? 凡是参与回复的虎友均可获得66虎积分奖励，我们还会随机赠出188，666等积分，点赞最高的虎友有机会获得7周年纪念礼包（风扇，行李牌，冰箱贴等都是7周年特有的限定周边，错过这次很难再拿到）活动一直持续到6月16日。 友情提示：篇幅长的虎友可以在发帖时选择“写长帖’ 也可以使用老虎社区网页发帖可支持多图及长文格式哦：www.laohu8.com 【特别说明】 - 水贴，重复内容，广告，恶意营销等属于无效内容。 - 文章需原创并首发于老虎，并且版权归老虎社区所有 - 本次活动中用户所提到的标的，仅供参考，不构成投资建议，据此操作，风险自负。 - 活动最终解释权归老虎社区所有。 若对本次活动有不解之处，可在此贴留言，或微信虎妞（微信号：tigerbrokers）咨询。<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>","listText":"有人说7年很短，如白驹过隙，转瞬即逝，但我却觉得7年很长，因为 7年等于84个月， 7年等于365个星期， 7年等于2555天， 7年等于61320小时， 7年等于3679200分钟， 7年等于394次研发迭代。 一路走来，我们经历过高光时刻，也有过低谷的蛰伏，有过争议，也有肯定。 幸运的是，一直有虎友陪伴我们前行，分享欢乐，共同成长。感谢每个屏幕前的你，是你把老虎送到另一个起点，军功章里有你的一半！ 2021年6月11日，老虎将迎来7周岁的生日。小虎君这回的生日愿望就是希望下一个七年能够再次与你相伴，也希望各位虎友们能多多给周围的朋友推荐老虎，让我们一起把老虎做大做强。~ 【参与方式】 欢迎大家在本帖“留言并转发”参与活动，或者在“安利老虎的日常”主题下发帖，分享你与老虎的点滴故事。为什么喜欢老虎？喜欢老虎的哪些地方？如何向别人推荐老虎? 凡是参与回复的虎友均可获得66虎积分奖励，我们还会随机赠出188，666等积分，点赞最高的虎友有机会获得7周年纪念礼包（风扇，行李牌，冰箱贴等都是7周年特有的限定周边，错过这次很难再拿到）活动一直持续到6月16日。 友情提示：篇幅长的虎友可以在发帖时选择“写长帖’ 也可以使用老虎社区网页发帖可支持多图及长文格式哦：www.laohu8.com 【特别说明】 - 水贴，重复内容，广告，恶意营销等属于无效内容。 - 文章需原创并首发于老虎，并且版权归老虎社区所有 - 本次活动中用户所提到的标的，仅供参考，不构成投资建议，据此操作，风险自负。 - 活动最终解释权归老虎社区所有。 若对本次活动有不解之处，可在此贴留言，或微信虎妞（微信号：tigerbrokers）咨询。<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>","text":"有人说7年很短，如白驹过隙，转瞬即逝，但我却觉得7年很长，因为 7年等于84个月， 7年等于365个星期， 7年等于2555天， 7年等于61320小时， 7年等于3679200分钟， 7年等于394次研发迭代。 一路走来，我们经历过高光时刻，也有过低谷的蛰伏，有过争议，也有肯定。 幸运的是，一直有虎友陪伴我们前行，分享欢乐，共同成长。感谢每个屏幕前的你，是你把老虎送到另一个起点，军功章里有你的一半！ 2021年6月11日，老虎将迎来7周岁的生日。小虎君这回的生日愿望就是希望下一个七年能够再次与你相伴，也希望各位虎友们能多多给周围的朋友推荐老虎，让我们一起把老虎做大做强。~ 【参与方式】 欢迎大家在本帖“留言并转发”参与活动，或者在“安利老虎的日常”主题下发帖，分享你与老虎的点滴故事。为什么喜欢老虎？喜欢老虎的哪些地方？如何向别人推荐老虎? 凡是参与回复的虎友均可获得66虎积分奖励，我们还会随机赠出188，666等积分，点赞最高的虎友有机会获得7周年纪念礼包（风扇，行李牌，冰箱贴等都是7周年特有的限定周边，错过这次很难再拿到）活动一直持续到6月16日。 友情提示：篇幅长的虎友可以在发帖时选择“写长帖’ 也可以使用老虎社区网页发帖可支持多图及长文格式哦：www.laohu8.com 【特别说明】 - 水贴，重复内容，广告，恶意营销等属于无效内容。 - 文章需原创并首发于老虎，并且版权归老虎社区所有 - 本次活动中用户所提到的标的，仅供参考，不构成投资建议，据此操作，风险自负。 - 活动最终解释权归老虎社区所有。 若对本次活动有不解之处，可在此贴留言，或微信虎妞（微信号：tigerbrokers）咨询。$老虎证券(TIGR)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3884749fb921b7910ae5e6b3659ba63","width":"302","height":"404"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9ad2a5df2e61fbb8343c34b6da06dcc","width":"1920","height":"1080"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db019b5162192f0953319973353d203a","width":"834","height":"770"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/183885782","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":512,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":325636567,"gmtCreate":1615892797759,"gmtModify":1703494575881,"author":{"id":"3557877754400520","authorId":"3557877754400520","name":"luanluanlai","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557877754400520","authorIdStr":"3557877754400520"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Time to get some value","listText":"Time to get some value","text":"Time to get some value","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/325636567","repostId":"1127134490","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127134490","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615889741,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1127134490?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-16 18:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"\"We Are Sitting On An Incredibly Important Turning Point\"<blockquote>“我们正处于一个极其重要的转折点”</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127134490","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Last week in hislatest Doubleline webcast, Jeff Gundlach presented a remarkable chart, one showing that the ratio of the Nasdaq to the S&P 500 has been pulled lower  and is now right on its dot com bubble peak levels.Picking up on this chart, over the weekend in his latestBear Traps Report, Larry McDonald wrote that \"we are sitting on an incredibly important turning point\"adding that \"the world’s first and second most liquid and arguably most important stock indices are sending important rotatio","content":"<p>Last week in hislatest Doubleline webcast, Jeff Gundlach presented a remarkable chart, one showing that the ratio of the Nasdaq to the S&amp;P 500 has been pulled lower (due to Nasdaq underperformance coupled with strength in value stocks) and is now right on its dot com bubble peak levels.</p><p><blockquote>上周，杰夫·冈拉克 (Jeff Gundlach) 在他最新的 Doubleline 网络广播中展示了一张引人注目的图表，显示纳斯达克与标普500的比率已被拉低（由于纳斯达克表现不佳加上价值股的走强），现在正处于互联网泡沫的峰值水平。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb4617081a74b98cbab2c1287942cb9e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"357\">Picking up on this chart, over the weekend in his latestBear Traps Report, Larry McDonald wrote that \"<b>we are sitting on an incredibly important turning point\"</b>adding that \"<b>the world’s first and second most liquid and arguably most important stock indices are sending important rotation signals.</b>In our view, both tech and growth equities outperformance run is over and the rotation to value and commodity exposed equities has begun.\"</p><p><blockquote>拉里·麦克唐纳（Larry McDonald）周末在他最新的熊市陷阱报告中提到了这张图表，他写道：“<b>我们正处于一个极其重要的转折点”</b>加上“<b>全球流动性第一和第二大、也可以说是最重要的股票指数正在发出重要的轮动信号。</b>我们认为，科技股和成长型股的跑赢大盘已经结束，价值股和大宗商品股的轮动已经开始。”</blockquote></p><p> AsBloomberg notes, while recent single-day rallies (4% on Tuesday and 2.4% on Thursday) lifted the Nasdaq 100 to its first gain in four weeks, they’re not calming nerves. After all, big up days are not uncommon during a downtrend.<b>In 2000, when the market started a three-year crash, the index had 27 sessions where it rose at least 4%. That compared with six such days in 1999, when prices doubled.</b></p><p><blockquote>正如彭博社指出的那样，虽然最近的单日反弹（周二上涨 4%，周四上涨 2.4%）使纳斯达克 100 指数在四周内首次上涨，但这并不能平息人们的紧张情绪。毕竟，在下降趋势中，大幅上涨的日子并不少见。<b>2000年，当市场开始为期三年的崩盘时，该指数有27个交易日上涨了至少4%。相比之下，1999 年只有六天这样的日子，当时价格翻了一番。</b></blockquote></p><p> “The early stages of a bear market is typically punctuated by ferocious rallies, and what matters in the end is how far the rallies extend and not how quickly they move within a single session,” said Michael Shaoul, chief executive officer at Marketfield Asset Management LLC. “<b>Evidence continues to mount that the technology sector has finally relinquished its position as key global leadership.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>“Marketfield Asset Management LLC 首席执行官迈克尔-肖乌尔（Michael Shaoul）说：”熊市的早期阶段通常会出现凶猛的反弹，最终重要的是反弹的持续时间，而不是反弹在一个交易日内的速度。“<b>越来越多的证据表明，科技行业终于放弃了其全球关键领导者的地位。”</b></blockquote></p><p> That’s raising alarms for anyone who lived through the dot-com crash. Back then, when the Nasdaq 100 started falling in March 2000, the equal-weighted S&amp;P 500 kept marching forward and didn’t peak until 14 months later -- a sign that money was being shifted away from the tech behemoths that soared in the internet bubble.<b>Ultimately, the Nasdaq 100 lost half of its value</b>.</p><p><blockquote>这给任何经历过网络崩溃的人敲响了警钟。当时，当纳斯达克 100 指数于 2000 年 3 月开始下跌时，同等权重的标普500一直在前进，直到 14 个月后才见顶--这表明资金正在从互联网泡沫中飙升的科技巨头身上转移。<b>最终，纳斯达克 100 损失了一半的价值</b>.</blockquote></p><p>   <b>“People should not take solace in the fact that almost everything else besides the tech group is acting well,</b>” said Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak + Co.  <b>“If the tech group continues to underperform, it’s going to weigh on the rest of the stock market eventually.”</b>  A rotation out of growth and tech will only accelerate depending on what Powell says on Thursday, especially if he doesn't sound sufficient dovish and spooks markets again, triggering another bond rout, which by extension means a selloff in growth stocks which - as we have noted on many previous occasions -<b>have near record high duration and are thus merely bond proxies to which hedge funds have never been more exposed.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“人们不应该因为除了科技集团之外，几乎所有其他公司都表现良好而感到安慰、</b>Miller Tabak+Co.的首席市场策略师Matt Maley说。<b>“如果这家科技集团继续表现不佳，最终将拖累股市的其他部分。”</b>根据鲍威尔周四的言论，成长型和科技型股票的轮换只会加速，特别是如果他听起来不够鸽派并再次惊吓市场，从而引发另一场债券暴跌，这意味着成长型股票的抛售——正如我们在以前的许多场合指出的那样——<b>期限接近历史新高，因此仅仅是对冲基金从未如此接触过的债券代理。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80c176f70232a97f988ba92c84c6836d\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"201\">However, while all eyes were on the 10-Year during the late February \"reflation panic\" selloff which was sparked by a liquidation cascade in bonds once the 10Y breached 1.50%, the place on the Treasury curve where the next liquidation cascade could begin is now the belly, because asBloomberg writeswhereas back in December the thought was that the Federal Reserve might tamp down long-term Treasury yields, the issue now lies with shorter-dated ones, and specifically<b>5-year rates.</b></p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管在 2 月下旬的“再通胀恐慌”抛售期间，所有的目光都集中在 10 年期国债上，一旦 10 年期国债突破 1.50%，债券清算级联引发了抛售，但国债曲线上下一次清算级联可能开始的地方现在是腹部，因为正如彭博社所写，早在 12 月份，人们的想法是美联储可能会压低长期国债收益率，而现在的问题在于期限较短的国债收益率，特别是<b>5年期利率。</b></blockquote></p><p> Yields on that maturity have become unanchored in recent weeks, surging above the previous \"red line\" of 0.75% amid speculation that the<b>Fed will need to start a cycle of rate hikes perhaps a full year earlier than officials have indicated.</b>That shift has also roiled the outlook for a classic iteration of the reflation wager, a widening gap between 5- and 30-year yields, even as the narrative of a stimulus-fueled recovery has only gained momentum.</p><p><blockquote>最近几周，到期收益率变得不稳定，飙升至之前0.75%的“红线”上方，原因是市场猜测<b>美联储可能需要比官员们表示的提前一整年开始加息周期。</b>这一转变也扰乱了通货膨胀赌注的经典迭代的前景，即 5 年期和 30 年期国债收益率之间的差距不断扩大，尽管刺激推动的复苏叙事刚刚获得动力。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c4be02c3e2224fb5edfb0e0ed77bcac\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"267\"><b>\"The Fed next week will have to walk a fine line between either pushing back against market expectations or allowing them to stand,\"</b>said Kevin Walter, co-head of global Treasuries trading for Barclays. Without Fed pushback \"there might be more pressure on the belly of the curve,\" in which case the best steepeners would be the spreads between 2-year yields versus 5- and 7-year rates that have room to rise as traders price in tightening.</p><p><blockquote><b>“美联储下周将不得不在违背市场预期或允许市场预期维持现状之间徘徊。”</b>巴克莱银行全球国债交易联席主管凯文·沃尔特表示。如果没有美联储的反击，“曲线腹部可能会面临更大的压力”，在这种情况下，最好的加剧因素将是 2 年期收益率与 5 年期和 7 年期利率之间的利差，随着交易员定价紧缩，这些利差还有上升的空间。</blockquote></p><p> And while most investment bank research divisions, and certainly the Fed, do not expect any liftoff until at least 2023,<b>the swaps market has been reflecting a roughly 75% chance the Fed lifts rates from near zero by around the end of 2022.</b>Indeed, Walter expects no major policy changes next week and anticipates that officials will continue to project rates on hold through 2023, however even doing nothing may force another round of selling amid the recent bout of soaring inflation, one seen as a push by the market to force Powell into some form of Yield Curve Control.</p><p><blockquote>尽管大多数投资银行研究部门，当然还有美联储，预计至少要到 2023 年才会出现任何提振，<b>掉期市场反映，美联储在 2022 年底左右将利率从接近于零上调的可能性约为 75%。</b>事实上，沃尔特预计下周不会有重大政策变化，并预计官员们将继续预计利率维持到 2023 年不变，但在最近一轮通胀飙升的情况下，即使什么都不做也可能迫使新一轮抛售，这被视为市场推动迫使鲍威尔进入某种形式的收益率曲线控制。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/148711c8ea3822a0af209f086802c068\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"263\">On the remote chance that the Fed does signal some 2023 hikes next week,<b>the market will probably bring expectations for rate increases into the first half of 2022 and the 1-year-forward 5-year rate could increase 50 basis points, Peter Chatwell, head of multi-asset strategy for Mizuho International Plc,</b>said in an emailed note. It would also lead to renewed rotation out of growth and into value, further depressing the Nasdaq to SPX chart shown above.</p><p><blockquote>美联储下周确实发出 2023 年加息信号的可能性很小，<b>瑞穗国际公司 (Mizuho International Plc) 多资产策略主管彼得·查特韦尔 (Peter Chatwell) 表示，市场可能会将加息预期带入 2022 年上半年，1 年期远期 5 年期利率可能会上调 50 个基点，</b>在一封电子邮件中说道。这还将导致从增长转向价值的新轮动，进一步压低上图所示的SPX纳斯达克。</blockquote></p><p> That said, most don't expect Powell to address the continued selling in either the long-end or more recently, the belly - the Fed chair gave only a minor reference to the bond-market slump that drove 10-year yields above 1.6%. He emphasized the importance of financial conditions, which remain accommodative, although tech stocks did sink on Friday as yields surged.</p><p><blockquote>也就是说，大多数人预计鲍威尔不会解决长期或最近的持续抛售问题，美联储主席只是略微提及了导致 10 年期国债收益率升至 1.6% 以上的债券市场低迷。他强调了金融状况的重要性，尽管随着收益率飙升，科技股周五确实下跌，但金融状况仍然宽松。</blockquote></p><p> None of this will help ease inflation fears as the market fears the Fed is rapidly falling behind the curve. As we noted last week, 5Y inflation expectations at the highest since 2008 and robust jobs data have only reinforced bets that the Fed will need to tighten more quickly than it’s been forecasting. The speculation has squeezed wagers on a steeper curve from 5 to 30 years, shrinking that spread to a bit above 150 basis points, from a more than 6-year high of 167 in February. The 5-year yield at 0.84% isn’t far below its highest level since last year. But at the same time, the 2-year has remained near historic lows on the view that the Fed will hold rates near zero for the immediate future. That’s kept bets on the widely watched spread to the 10-year rate in play, as well as versus other maturities, such as the 5- and 7-year.</p><p><blockquote>这些都无助于缓解通胀担忧，因为市场担心美联储正在迅速落后于曲线。正如我们上周指出的，5 年期通胀预期达到 2008 年以来的最高水平，以及强劲的就业数据，只会加剧人们对美联储需要比预测更快收紧货币政策的押注。投机挤压了 5 年至 30 年更陡峭曲线的赌注，将利差从 2 月份 167 个基点的 6 年多高点缩小至略高于 150 个基点。0.84% 的 5 年期国债收益率远低于去年以来的最高水平。但与此同时，由于美联储将在不久的将来将利率维持在接近于零的水平，两年期利率仍接近历史低点。这使得人们对广受关注的 10 年期国债利差以及 5 年期和 7 年期等其他期限的利差的押注得以保持。</blockquote></p><p> And with the front-end anchored for a long, long time, the question then becomes what is the most lucrative steepener trade. “Some steepeners are better than others,” said Patrick Leary, senior trader and chief market strategist for Incapital. He expects the 2s10s to keep widening, but has taken profits on steepeners and is looking for a better point to re-enter. Other see potential in the 5- to 30-year steepener. TD Securities has recommended entering that bet at 146.5 basis points, targeting 170, based on what it said was a high bar for hikes and the prospect of elevated coupon supply.</p><p><blockquote>随着前端被锚定很长很长一段时间，问题就变成了什么是最有利可图的陡峭贸易。“Incapital 高级交易员兼首席市场策略师帕特里克-利里（Patrick Leary）说：”有些陡峭的幅度比其他幅度更好。他预计 2S10 将继续扩大，但已在陡峭的道路上获利了结，并正在寻找更好的点重新进入。其他人则看到了 5 至 30 年陡峭期的潜力。道明证券建议以 146.5 个基点入场，目标为 170 个基点，理由是加息的高门槛以及息票供应增加的前景。</blockquote></p><p> Taking a step back, the reason why traders have been so focused on the 5-year part of the curve, i.e., \"the belly\", is because it’s seen as one place that may bear the brunt of any subsequent selloff should rate-hike speculation mount further, since the bulk of the liftoff regime is expected to take place within the maturity of a 5 Year note issued now.</p><p><blockquote>退一步说，交易员之所以如此关注曲线的 5 年期部分，即 “腹部 ”，是因为如果加息猜测进一步升温，该部分被视为可能首当其冲的地方，因为预计大部分解禁机制将在现在发行的 5 年期国债到期日内发生。</blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, as Bloomberg notes already certain corners of the market are turning their attention to the potential for multiple rate hikes.<b>In swaptions,</b><b><u>a position has emerged targeting the Fed to hike seven to eight times by March 2025, according to a Barclays analysis</u></b><b>.</b></p><p><blockquote>此外，正如彭博社指出的那样，市场的某些角落已经将注意力转向多次加息的可能性。<b>在交换选项中，</b><b><u>根据巴克莱银行的分析，出现了一种立场，目标是美联储在 2025 年 3 月之前加息 7 至 8 次</u></b><b>.</b></blockquote></p><p> There is, of course, the risk that markets have gotten ahead of themselves - the whole point of a recent RIC report from BofA, which does not see anywhere nearly enough sustained inflation to justify a 2022 rate hike, let alone 7 by 2025: “it’s possible the market may have gotten a little ahead of itself in the belly,” causing the 5-year rate to rise too much, said Jamie Anderson, head of U.S. trading for Insight Investment. If the data come in weak or the Fed is on hold for longer than expected, “the belly should rally and the curve re-steepen,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>当然，市场也存在超前的风险--美国银行最近发布的 RIC 报告的要点是，该报告认为，任何地方的持续通胀都不足以证明 2022 年加息的合理性，更不用说到 2025 年加息了 7 次了： “Insight Investment 美国交易主管杰米-安德森（Jamie Anderson）说：”市场可能已经有点超前了，”导致 5 年期国债利率上涨过多。他说，如果数据疲软，或者美联储按兵不动的时间超过预期，“腹部应该会反弹，曲线会再次陡峭”。</blockquote></p><p> For Incapital’s Leary, the narrowing in the 5s30s gap came on the view that officials may discuss - or even announce - a twist next week. Such an operation, involving the sale of shorter-dated holdings and purchase of longer maturities to control yields, would put more pressure on the belly, he says. That would follow the European Central Bank’s decision to ramp up its bond-buying pace.</p><p><blockquote>对于 Incapital 的 Leary 来说，5S30 差距的缩小是因为官员们可能会在下周讨论甚至宣布一个转折点。他说，这种操作涉及出售期限较短的资产并购买期限较长的资产以控制收益率，会给腹部带来更大的压力。在此之前，欧洲央行将决定加快债券购买步伐。</blockquote></p><p> “All these trades are highly dependent on the Fed being on the sidelines and not changing its policy stance,” Leary said.<b>“The market is definitely playing a game of chicken with the Fed, by testing how high yields can get before tightening financial conditions and forcing the Fed to step in.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>“利里说：”所有这些交易在很大程度上取决于美联储是否袖手旁观，不改变其政策立场。<b>“市场肯定是在和美联储玩吃鸡的游戏，在收紧金融条件并迫使美联储介入之前，先测试收益率能达到多高。”</b></blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, even as some strategists have brushed aside the yield risk for growth stocks, claiming that tech has shown a fickle relationship with Treasuries over time, Joe Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research,<b>found that since 2014, the Nasdaq 100’s forward earnings yield - the inverse of its price-earnings ratio where the higher it is, the cheaper stocks are - has moved almost in lockstep with forecast corporate bond rates.</b></p><p><blockquote>与此同时，尽管一些策略师忽略了成长型股票的收益率风险，声称随着时间的推移，科技股与美国国债的关系变化无常，但内德·戴维斯研究公司首席全球宏观策略师乔·卡利什表示，<b>研究发现，自 2014 年以来，纳斯达克 100 指数的远期收益率--其市盈率的倒数，即市盈率越高，股票越便宜--几乎与预测的公司债券利率一致。</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In his model, if 10-year Treasury yields rise to 2% this year, that in turn could drive long-term Baa-rated bond rates to 4.5%, a scenario where<b>the Nasdaq 100 would have to drop as much as 20% to stay attractive, all else equal.</b>If yields climbed but the Nasdaq didn’t move, this would indicate over-valuation, Kalish said, adding his model correctly flashed warnings in 1987 and 2000.</p><p><blockquote>在他的模型中，如果今年 10 年期国债收益率升至 2%，这反过来可能会推动长期 Baa 评级债券利率升至 4.5%，这种情况下<b>在其他条件相同的情况下，纳斯达克 100 指数必须下跌 20% 才能保持吸引力。</b>卡利什说，如果收益率攀升，但纳斯达克没有变动，这将表明估值过高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e1270022eb5742b2cf2a7c328a5d897\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"380\">Also keep in mind that even after the recent drop, the price-earnings ratio of the Nasdaq 100 - at 28 - is nowhere near cheap relative to other stocks, and is a 7% premium over the S&amp;P 500.</p><p><blockquote>还要记住，即使在最近下跌之后，纳斯达克 100 指数的市盈率（为 28）相对于其他股票来说也远非便宜，并且比标普500溢价 7%。</blockquote></p><p> Finally, the growth advantage that has sustained tech’s outperformance in all but one year since 2009 is poised to disappear - at least for the next two years - as pandemic-beaten firms like airlines and automakers roar back. Profits from software and internet companies are expected to expand 22% this year and 12% in 2022. Both lag behind the broad S&amp;P 500, where earnings are forecast to increase 24% and 15%, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>最后，随着航空公司和汽车制造商等受大流行病打击的企业卷土重来，自 2009 年以来除一年外，其他所有年份都维持了科技行业优异表现的增长优势即将消失--至少在未来两年内是这样。软件和互联网公司的利润预计今年将增长 22%，2022 年将增长 12%。两者都落后于标普500，后者的盈利预计将分别增长 24% 和 15%。</blockquote></p><p> So going back to the top chart, and with Nasdaq 100 knocking on the door of its relative peak, it’d be a mistake not to consider the downside risk, according to Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Leuthold Group.</p><p><blockquote>Leuthold Group 首席投资策略师吉姆-保尔森（Jim Paulsen）认为，回到榜首，纳斯达克 100 指数即将达到相对顶峰，不考虑下行风险将是一个错误。</blockquote></p><p> “New-era investments are at a significant crossroads,” he said.<b>“After a prolonged period of extensive outperformance by the Nasdaq and tech stocks, it is not unreasonable to foresee a phase of underperformance, consolidation or even an outright collapse.”</b></p><p><blockquote>“他说：”新时代的投资正处于一个重要的十字路口。<b>“在纳斯达克和科技股长期以来大面积跑赢大盘之后，预见一个表现不佳、盘整甚至彻底崩盘的阶段并非没有道理。”</b></blockquote></p><p> If all this sounds unnecessarily convoluted, we remind you of what Rabobank's Michael Everysaid overnight, in what may be the best summary of the Fed's options:</p><p><blockquote>如果这一切听起来不必要的复杂，我们提醒您荷兰合作银行的迈克尔·埃弗里昨晚所说的话，这可能是对美联储选择的最佳总结：</blockquote></p><p>   \"If Powell does nothing, we could perhaps be on the verge of a 2013-style Taper Tantrum. That would send Godzilla-sized shockwaves through markets everywhere, including Tokyo. (And I now think of 1970/80’s British TV ads where a Mock-zilla would eat famous global landmarks before deciding he preferred a certain candy “even chewier than a Barrow-in-Furness bus depot.”) \"\"Of course, Powell could say something or do something: Operation Twist and Shout; or YCC. First of all, this would then show that there is a disconnect between the Treasury and the Fed, which is hardly ideal. Moreover, such steps would prompt a major market flattening, but of two different kinds (short end up and long end down; or just long end down).  <b>As I keep repeating here, YCC would also open the door for some seriously new epic adventures, like opening the mysterious giant gate behind which King Kong is found on his remote island.\"</b>  In short, brace for a burst of volatility on Thursday when Powell (and tech stock bulls) will be damned if the Fed Chair<i><b>doesn't</b></i>do anything, and damned if he&nbsp;<u><b>does</b></u>...</p><p><blockquote>“如果鲍威尔什么都不做，我们可能会处于 2013 年式缩减规模的边缘。这将给包括东京在内的世界各地市场带来哥斯拉大小的冲击波。(我现在想起了上世纪七八十年代的英国电视广告，在广告中，一个模拟疯子会吃掉全球著名的地标，然后决定他更喜欢某种糖果，“甚至比火炉里的手推车还要嚼”。）“当然，鲍威尔可以说些什么，也可以做些什么：扭转和喊叫行动；或者 YCC。首先，这将表明财政部和美联储之间存在脱节，这并不理想。此外，这样的举措将引发市场大幅走平，但是两种不同的（短端）。或者只是长尾）。<b>正如我在这里不断重复的那样，YCC 还将为一些严肃的新史诗冒险打开大门，比如打开神秘的巨门，金刚就在大门后面被发现在他的偏远岛屿上。”</b>简而言之，如果美联储主席<i><b>没有</b></i>做任何事，如果他<u><b>确实</b></u>...</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>\"We Are Sitting On An Incredibly Important Turning Point\"<blockquote>“我们正处于一个极其重要的转折点”</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n\"We Are Sitting On An Incredibly Important Turning Point\"<blockquote>“我们正处于一个极其重要的转折点”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-16 18:15</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Last week in hislatest Doubleline webcast, Jeff Gundlach presented a remarkable chart, one showing that the ratio of the Nasdaq to the S&amp;P 500 has been pulled lower (due to Nasdaq underperformance coupled with strength in value stocks) and is now right on its dot com bubble peak levels.</p><p><blockquote>上周，杰夫·冈拉克 (Jeff Gundlach) 在他最新的 Doubleline 网络广播中展示了一张引人注目的图表，显示纳斯达克与标普500的比率已被拉低（由于纳斯达克表现不佳加上价值股的走强），现在正处于互联网泡沫的峰值水平。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb4617081a74b98cbab2c1287942cb9e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"357\">Picking up on this chart, over the weekend in his latestBear Traps Report, Larry McDonald wrote that \"<b>we are sitting on an incredibly important turning point\"</b>adding that \"<b>the world’s first and second most liquid and arguably most important stock indices are sending important rotation signals.</b>In our view, both tech and growth equities outperformance run is over and the rotation to value and commodity exposed equities has begun.\"</p><p><blockquote>拉里·麦克唐纳（Larry McDonald）周末在他最新的熊市陷阱报告中提到了这张图表，他写道：“<b>我们正处于一个极其重要的转折点”</b>加上“<b>全球流动性第一和第二大、也可以说是最重要的股票指数正在发出重要的轮动信号。</b>我们认为，科技股和成长型股的跑赢大盘已经结束，价值股和大宗商品股的轮动已经开始。”</blockquote></p><p> AsBloomberg notes, while recent single-day rallies (4% on Tuesday and 2.4% on Thursday) lifted the Nasdaq 100 to its first gain in four weeks, they’re not calming nerves. After all, big up days are not uncommon during a downtrend.<b>In 2000, when the market started a three-year crash, the index had 27 sessions where it rose at least 4%. That compared with six such days in 1999, when prices doubled.</b></p><p><blockquote>正如彭博社指出的那样，虽然最近的单日反弹（周二上涨 4%，周四上涨 2.4%）使纳斯达克 100 指数在四周内首次上涨，但这并不能平息人们的紧张情绪。毕竟，在下降趋势中，大幅上涨的日子并不少见。<b>2000年，当市场开始为期三年的崩盘时，该指数有27个交易日上涨了至少4%。相比之下，1999 年只有六天这样的日子，当时价格翻了一番。</b></blockquote></p><p> “The early stages of a bear market is typically punctuated by ferocious rallies, and what matters in the end is how far the rallies extend and not how quickly they move within a single session,” said Michael Shaoul, chief executive officer at Marketfield Asset Management LLC. “<b>Evidence continues to mount that the technology sector has finally relinquished its position as key global leadership.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>“Marketfield Asset Management LLC 首席执行官迈克尔-肖乌尔（Michael Shaoul）说：”熊市的早期阶段通常会出现凶猛的反弹，最终重要的是反弹的持续时间，而不是反弹在一个交易日内的速度。“<b>越来越多的证据表明，科技行业终于放弃了其全球关键领导者的地位。”</b></blockquote></p><p> That’s raising alarms for anyone who lived through the dot-com crash. Back then, when the Nasdaq 100 started falling in March 2000, the equal-weighted S&amp;P 500 kept marching forward and didn’t peak until 14 months later -- a sign that money was being shifted away from the tech behemoths that soared in the internet bubble.<b>Ultimately, the Nasdaq 100 lost half of its value</b>.</p><p><blockquote>这给任何经历过网络崩溃的人敲响了警钟。当时，当纳斯达克 100 指数于 2000 年 3 月开始下跌时，同等权重的标普500一直在前进，直到 14 个月后才见顶--这表明资金正在从互联网泡沫中飙升的科技巨头身上转移。<b>最终，纳斯达克 100 损失了一半的价值</b>.</blockquote></p><p>   <b>“People should not take solace in the fact that almost everything else besides the tech group is acting well,</b>” said Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak + Co.  <b>“If the tech group continues to underperform, it’s going to weigh on the rest of the stock market eventually.”</b>  A rotation out of growth and tech will only accelerate depending on what Powell says on Thursday, especially if he doesn't sound sufficient dovish and spooks markets again, triggering another bond rout, which by extension means a selloff in growth stocks which - as we have noted on many previous occasions -<b>have near record high duration and are thus merely bond proxies to which hedge funds have never been more exposed.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“人们不应该因为除了科技集团之外，几乎所有其他公司都表现良好而感到安慰、</b>Miller Tabak+Co.的首席市场策略师Matt Maley说。<b>“如果这家科技集团继续表现不佳，最终将拖累股市的其他部分。”</b>根据鲍威尔周四的言论，成长型和科技型股票的轮换只会加速，特别是如果他听起来不够鸽派并再次惊吓市场，从而引发另一场债券暴跌，这意味着成长型股票的抛售——正如我们在以前的许多场合指出的那样——<b>期限接近历史新高，因此仅仅是对冲基金从未如此接触过的债券代理。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80c176f70232a97f988ba92c84c6836d\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"201\">However, while all eyes were on the 10-Year during the late February \"reflation panic\" selloff which was sparked by a liquidation cascade in bonds once the 10Y breached 1.50%, the place on the Treasury curve where the next liquidation cascade could begin is now the belly, because asBloomberg writeswhereas back in December the thought was that the Federal Reserve might tamp down long-term Treasury yields, the issue now lies with shorter-dated ones, and specifically<b>5-year rates.</b></p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管在 2 月下旬的“再通胀恐慌”抛售期间，所有的目光都集中在 10 年期国债上，一旦 10 年期国债突破 1.50%，债券清算级联引发了抛售，但国债曲线上下一次清算级联可能开始的地方现在是腹部，因为正如彭博社所写，早在 12 月份，人们的想法是美联储可能会压低长期国债收益率，而现在的问题在于期限较短的国债收益率，特别是<b>5年期利率。</b></blockquote></p><p> Yields on that maturity have become unanchored in recent weeks, surging above the previous \"red line\" of 0.75% amid speculation that the<b>Fed will need to start a cycle of rate hikes perhaps a full year earlier than officials have indicated.</b>That shift has also roiled the outlook for a classic iteration of the reflation wager, a widening gap between 5- and 30-year yields, even as the narrative of a stimulus-fueled recovery has only gained momentum.</p><p><blockquote>最近几周，到期收益率变得不稳定，飙升至之前0.75%的“红线”上方，原因是市场猜测<b>美联储可能需要比官员们表示的提前一整年开始加息周期。</b>这一转变也扰乱了通货膨胀赌注的经典迭代的前景，即 5 年期和 30 年期国债收益率之间的差距不断扩大，尽管刺激推动的复苏叙事刚刚获得动力。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c4be02c3e2224fb5edfb0e0ed77bcac\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"267\"><b>\"The Fed next week will have to walk a fine line between either pushing back against market expectations or allowing them to stand,\"</b>said Kevin Walter, co-head of global Treasuries trading for Barclays. Without Fed pushback \"there might be more pressure on the belly of the curve,\" in which case the best steepeners would be the spreads between 2-year yields versus 5- and 7-year rates that have room to rise as traders price in tightening.</p><p><blockquote><b>“美联储下周将不得不在违背市场预期或允许市场预期维持现状之间徘徊。”</b>巴克莱银行全球国债交易联席主管凯文·沃尔特表示。如果没有美联储的反击，“曲线腹部可能会面临更大的压力”，在这种情况下，最好的加剧因素将是 2 年期收益率与 5 年期和 7 年期利率之间的利差，随着交易员定价紧缩，这些利差还有上升的空间。</blockquote></p><p> And while most investment bank research divisions, and certainly the Fed, do not expect any liftoff until at least 2023,<b>the swaps market has been reflecting a roughly 75% chance the Fed lifts rates from near zero by around the end of 2022.</b>Indeed, Walter expects no major policy changes next week and anticipates that officials will continue to project rates on hold through 2023, however even doing nothing may force another round of selling amid the recent bout of soaring inflation, one seen as a push by the market to force Powell into some form of Yield Curve Control.</p><p><blockquote>尽管大多数投资银行研究部门，当然还有美联储，预计至少要到 2023 年才会出现任何提振，<b>掉期市场反映，美联储在 2022 年底左右将利率从接近于零上调的可能性约为 75%。</b>事实上，沃尔特预计下周不会有重大政策变化，并预计官员们将继续预计利率维持到 2023 年不变，但在最近一轮通胀飙升的情况下，即使什么都不做也可能迫使新一轮抛售，这被视为市场推动迫使鲍威尔进入某种形式的收益率曲线控制。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/148711c8ea3822a0af209f086802c068\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"263\">On the remote chance that the Fed does signal some 2023 hikes next week,<b>the market will probably bring expectations for rate increases into the first half of 2022 and the 1-year-forward 5-year rate could increase 50 basis points, Peter Chatwell, head of multi-asset strategy for Mizuho International Plc,</b>said in an emailed note. It would also lead to renewed rotation out of growth and into value, further depressing the Nasdaq to SPX chart shown above.</p><p><blockquote>美联储下周确实发出 2023 年加息信号的可能性很小，<b>瑞穗国际公司 (Mizuho International Plc) 多资产策略主管彼得·查特韦尔 (Peter Chatwell) 表示，市场可能会将加息预期带入 2022 年上半年，1 年期远期 5 年期利率可能会上调 50 个基点，</b>在一封电子邮件中说道。这还将导致从增长转向价值的新轮动，进一步压低上图所示的SPX纳斯达克。</blockquote></p><p> That said, most don't expect Powell to address the continued selling in either the long-end or more recently, the belly - the Fed chair gave only a minor reference to the bond-market slump that drove 10-year yields above 1.6%. He emphasized the importance of financial conditions, which remain accommodative, although tech stocks did sink on Friday as yields surged.</p><p><blockquote>也就是说，大多数人预计鲍威尔不会解决长期或最近的持续抛售问题，美联储主席只是略微提及了导致 10 年期国债收益率升至 1.6% 以上的债券市场低迷。他强调了金融状况的重要性，尽管随着收益率飙升，科技股周五确实下跌，但金融状况仍然宽松。</blockquote></p><p> None of this will help ease inflation fears as the market fears the Fed is rapidly falling behind the curve. As we noted last week, 5Y inflation expectations at the highest since 2008 and robust jobs data have only reinforced bets that the Fed will need to tighten more quickly than it’s been forecasting. The speculation has squeezed wagers on a steeper curve from 5 to 30 years, shrinking that spread to a bit above 150 basis points, from a more than 6-year high of 167 in February. The 5-year yield at 0.84% isn’t far below its highest level since last year. But at the same time, the 2-year has remained near historic lows on the view that the Fed will hold rates near zero for the immediate future. That’s kept bets on the widely watched spread to the 10-year rate in play, as well as versus other maturities, such as the 5- and 7-year.</p><p><blockquote>这些都无助于缓解通胀担忧，因为市场担心美联储正在迅速落后于曲线。正如我们上周指出的，5 年期通胀预期达到 2008 年以来的最高水平，以及强劲的就业数据，只会加剧人们对美联储需要比预测更快收紧货币政策的押注。投机挤压了 5 年至 30 年更陡峭曲线的赌注，将利差从 2 月份 167 个基点的 6 年多高点缩小至略高于 150 个基点。0.84% 的 5 年期国债收益率远低于去年以来的最高水平。但与此同时，由于美联储将在不久的将来将利率维持在接近于零的水平，两年期利率仍接近历史低点。这使得人们对广受关注的 10 年期国债利差以及 5 年期和 7 年期等其他期限的利差的押注得以保持。</blockquote></p><p> And with the front-end anchored for a long, long time, the question then becomes what is the most lucrative steepener trade. “Some steepeners are better than others,” said Patrick Leary, senior trader and chief market strategist for Incapital. He expects the 2s10s to keep widening, but has taken profits on steepeners and is looking for a better point to re-enter. Other see potential in the 5- to 30-year steepener. TD Securities has recommended entering that bet at 146.5 basis points, targeting 170, based on what it said was a high bar for hikes and the prospect of elevated coupon supply.</p><p><blockquote>随着前端被锚定很长很长一段时间，问题就变成了什么是最有利可图的陡峭贸易。“Incapital 高级交易员兼首席市场策略师帕特里克-利里（Patrick Leary）说：”有些陡峭的幅度比其他幅度更好。他预计 2S10 将继续扩大，但已在陡峭的道路上获利了结，并正在寻找更好的点重新进入。其他人则看到了 5 至 30 年陡峭期的潜力。道明证券建议以 146.5 个基点入场，目标为 170 个基点，理由是加息的高门槛以及息票供应增加的前景。</blockquote></p><p> Taking a step back, the reason why traders have been so focused on the 5-year part of the curve, i.e., \"the belly\", is because it’s seen as one place that may bear the brunt of any subsequent selloff should rate-hike speculation mount further, since the bulk of the liftoff regime is expected to take place within the maturity of a 5 Year note issued now.</p><p><blockquote>退一步说，交易员之所以如此关注曲线的 5 年期部分，即 “腹部 ”，是因为如果加息猜测进一步升温，该部分被视为可能首当其冲的地方，因为预计大部分解禁机制将在现在发行的 5 年期国债到期日内发生。</blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, as Bloomberg notes already certain corners of the market are turning their attention to the potential for multiple rate hikes.<b>In swaptions,</b><b><u>a position has emerged targeting the Fed to hike seven to eight times by March 2025, according to a Barclays analysis</u></b><b>.</b></p><p><blockquote>此外，正如彭博社指出的那样，市场的某些角落已经将注意力转向多次加息的可能性。<b>在交换选项中，</b><b><u>根据巴克莱银行的分析，出现了一种立场，目标是美联储在 2025 年 3 月之前加息 7 至 8 次</u></b><b>.</b></blockquote></p><p> There is, of course, the risk that markets have gotten ahead of themselves - the whole point of a recent RIC report from BofA, which does not see anywhere nearly enough sustained inflation to justify a 2022 rate hike, let alone 7 by 2025: “it’s possible the market may have gotten a little ahead of itself in the belly,” causing the 5-year rate to rise too much, said Jamie Anderson, head of U.S. trading for Insight Investment. If the data come in weak or the Fed is on hold for longer than expected, “the belly should rally and the curve re-steepen,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>当然，市场也存在超前的风险--美国银行最近发布的 RIC 报告的要点是，该报告认为，任何地方的持续通胀都不足以证明 2022 年加息的合理性，更不用说到 2025 年加息了 7 次了： “Insight Investment 美国交易主管杰米-安德森（Jamie Anderson）说：”市场可能已经有点超前了，”导致 5 年期国债利率上涨过多。他说，如果数据疲软，或者美联储按兵不动的时间超过预期，“腹部应该会反弹，曲线会再次陡峭”。</blockquote></p><p> For Incapital’s Leary, the narrowing in the 5s30s gap came on the view that officials may discuss - or even announce - a twist next week. Such an operation, involving the sale of shorter-dated holdings and purchase of longer maturities to control yields, would put more pressure on the belly, he says. That would follow the European Central Bank’s decision to ramp up its bond-buying pace.</p><p><blockquote>对于 Incapital 的 Leary 来说，5S30 差距的缩小是因为官员们可能会在下周讨论甚至宣布一个转折点。他说，这种操作涉及出售期限较短的资产并购买期限较长的资产以控制收益率，会给腹部带来更大的压力。在此之前，欧洲央行将决定加快债券购买步伐。</blockquote></p><p> “All these trades are highly dependent on the Fed being on the sidelines and not changing its policy stance,” Leary said.<b>“The market is definitely playing a game of chicken with the Fed, by testing how high yields can get before tightening financial conditions and forcing the Fed to step in.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>“利里说：”所有这些交易在很大程度上取决于美联储是否袖手旁观，不改变其政策立场。<b>“市场肯定是在和美联储玩吃鸡的游戏，在收紧金融条件并迫使美联储介入之前，先测试收益率能达到多高。”</b></blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, even as some strategists have brushed aside the yield risk for growth stocks, claiming that tech has shown a fickle relationship with Treasuries over time, Joe Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research,<b>found that since 2014, the Nasdaq 100’s forward earnings yield - the inverse of its price-earnings ratio where the higher it is, the cheaper stocks are - has moved almost in lockstep with forecast corporate bond rates.</b></p><p><blockquote>与此同时，尽管一些策略师忽略了成长型股票的收益率风险，声称随着时间的推移，科技股与美国国债的关系变化无常，但内德·戴维斯研究公司首席全球宏观策略师乔·卡利什表示，<b>研究发现，自 2014 年以来，纳斯达克 100 指数的远期收益率--其市盈率的倒数，即市盈率越高，股票越便宜--几乎与预测的公司债券利率一致。</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In his model, if 10-year Treasury yields rise to 2% this year, that in turn could drive long-term Baa-rated bond rates to 4.5%, a scenario where<b>the Nasdaq 100 would have to drop as much as 20% to stay attractive, all else equal.</b>If yields climbed but the Nasdaq didn’t move, this would indicate over-valuation, Kalish said, adding his model correctly flashed warnings in 1987 and 2000.</p><p><blockquote>在他的模型中，如果今年 10 年期国债收益率升至 2%，这反过来可能会推动长期 Baa 评级债券利率升至 4.5%，这种情况下<b>在其他条件相同的情况下，纳斯达克 100 指数必须下跌 20% 才能保持吸引力。</b>卡利什说，如果收益率攀升，但纳斯达克没有变动，这将表明估值过高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e1270022eb5742b2cf2a7c328a5d897\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"380\">Also keep in mind that even after the recent drop, the price-earnings ratio of the Nasdaq 100 - at 28 - is nowhere near cheap relative to other stocks, and is a 7% premium over the S&amp;P 500.</p><p><blockquote>还要记住，即使在最近下跌之后，纳斯达克 100 指数的市盈率（为 28）相对于其他股票来说也远非便宜，并且比标普500溢价 7%。</blockquote></p><p> Finally, the growth advantage that has sustained tech’s outperformance in all but one year since 2009 is poised to disappear - at least for the next two years - as pandemic-beaten firms like airlines and automakers roar back. Profits from software and internet companies are expected to expand 22% this year and 12% in 2022. Both lag behind the broad S&amp;P 500, where earnings are forecast to increase 24% and 15%, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>最后，随着航空公司和汽车制造商等受大流行病打击的企业卷土重来，自 2009 年以来除一年外，其他所有年份都维持了科技行业优异表现的增长优势即将消失--至少在未来两年内是这样。软件和互联网公司的利润预计今年将增长 22%，2022 年将增长 12%。两者都落后于标普500，后者的盈利预计将分别增长 24% 和 15%。</blockquote></p><p> So going back to the top chart, and with Nasdaq 100 knocking on the door of its relative peak, it’d be a mistake not to consider the downside risk, according to Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Leuthold Group.</p><p><blockquote>Leuthold Group 首席投资策略师吉姆-保尔森（Jim Paulsen）认为，回到榜首，纳斯达克 100 指数即将达到相对顶峰，不考虑下行风险将是一个错误。</blockquote></p><p> “New-era investments are at a significant crossroads,” he said.<b>“After a prolonged period of extensive outperformance by the Nasdaq and tech stocks, it is not unreasonable to foresee a phase of underperformance, consolidation or even an outright collapse.”</b></p><p><blockquote>“他说：”新时代的投资正处于一个重要的十字路口。<b>“在纳斯达克和科技股长期以来大面积跑赢大盘之后，预见一个表现不佳、盘整甚至彻底崩盘的阶段并非没有道理。”</b></blockquote></p><p> If all this sounds unnecessarily convoluted, we remind you of what Rabobank's Michael Everysaid overnight, in what may be the best summary of the Fed's options:</p><p><blockquote>如果这一切听起来不必要的复杂，我们提醒您荷兰合作银行的迈克尔·埃弗里昨晚所说的话，这可能是对美联储选择的最佳总结：</blockquote></p><p>   \"If Powell does nothing, we could perhaps be on the verge of a 2013-style Taper Tantrum. That would send Godzilla-sized shockwaves through markets everywhere, including Tokyo. (And I now think of 1970/80’s British TV ads where a Mock-zilla would eat famous global landmarks before deciding he preferred a certain candy “even chewier than a Barrow-in-Furness bus depot.”) \"\"Of course, Powell could say something or do something: Operation Twist and Shout; or YCC. First of all, this would then show that there is a disconnect between the Treasury and the Fed, which is hardly ideal. Moreover, such steps would prompt a major market flattening, but of two different kinds (short end up and long end down; or just long end down).  <b>As I keep repeating here, YCC would also open the door for some seriously new epic adventures, like opening the mysterious giant gate behind which King Kong is found on his remote island.\"</b>  In short, brace for a burst of volatility on Thursday when Powell (and tech stock bulls) will be damned if the Fed Chair<i><b>doesn't</b></i>do anything, and damned if he&nbsp;<u><b>does</b></u>...</p><p><blockquote>“如果鲍威尔什么都不做，我们可能会处于 2013 年式缩减规模的边缘。这将给包括东京在内的世界各地市场带来哥斯拉大小的冲击波。(我现在想起了上世纪七八十年代的英国电视广告，在广告中，一个模拟疯子会吃掉全球著名的地标，然后决定他更喜欢某种糖果，“甚至比火炉里的手推车还要嚼”。）“当然，鲍威尔可以说些什么，也可以做些什么：扭转和喊叫行动；或者 YCC。首先，这将表明财政部和美联储之间存在脱节，这并不理想。此外，这样的举措将引发市场大幅走平，但是两种不同的（短端）。或者只是长尾）。<b>正如我在这里不断重复的那样，YCC 还将为一些严肃的新史诗冒险打开大门，比如打开神秘的巨门，金刚就在大门后面被发现在他的偏远岛屿上。”</b>简而言之，如果美联储主席<i><b>没有</b></i>做任何事，如果他<u><b>确实</b></u>...</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/we-are-sitting-incredibly-important-turning-point\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/we-are-sitting-incredibly-important-turning-point","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127134490","content_text":"Last week in hislatest Doubleline webcast, Jeff Gundlach presented a remarkable chart, one showing that the ratio of the Nasdaq to the S&P 500 has been pulled lower (due to Nasdaq underperformance coupled with strength in value stocks) and is now right on its dot com bubble peak levels.\nPicking up on this chart, over the weekend in his latestBear Traps Report, Larry McDonald wrote that \"we are sitting on an incredibly important turning point\"adding that \"the world’s first and second most liquid and arguably most important stock indices are sending important rotation signals.In our view, both tech and growth equities outperformance run is over and the rotation to value and commodity exposed equities has begun.\"\nAsBloomberg notes, while recent single-day rallies (4% on Tuesday and 2.4% on Thursday) lifted the Nasdaq 100 to its first gain in four weeks, they’re not calming nerves. After all, big up days are not uncommon during a downtrend.In 2000, when the market started a three-year crash, the index had 27 sessions where it rose at least 4%. That compared with six such days in 1999, when prices doubled.\n“The early stages of a bear market is typically punctuated by ferocious rallies, and what matters in the end is how far the rallies extend and not how quickly they move within a single session,” said Michael Shaoul, chief executive officer at Marketfield Asset Management LLC. “Evidence continues to mount that the technology sector has finally relinquished its position as key global leadership.\"\nThat’s raising alarms for anyone who lived through the dot-com crash. Back then, when the Nasdaq 100 started falling in March 2000, the equal-weighted S&P 500 kept marching forward and didn’t peak until 14 months later -- a sign that money was being shifted away from the tech behemoths that soared in the internet bubble.Ultimately, the Nasdaq 100 lost half of its value.\n\n“People should not take solace in the fact that almost everything else besides the tech group is acting well,” said Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak + Co.\n “If the tech group continues to underperform, it’s going to weigh on the rest of the stock market eventually.”\n\nA rotation out of growth and tech will only accelerate depending on what Powell says on Thursday, especially if he doesn't sound sufficient dovish and spooks markets again, triggering another bond rout, which by extension means a selloff in growth stocks which - as we have noted on many previous occasions -have near record high duration and are thus merely bond proxies to which hedge funds have never been more exposed.\nHowever, while all eyes were on the 10-Year during the late February \"reflation panic\" selloff which was sparked by a liquidation cascade in bonds once the 10Y breached 1.50%, the place on the Treasury curve where the next liquidation cascade could begin is now the belly, because asBloomberg writeswhereas back in December the thought was that the Federal Reserve might tamp down long-term Treasury yields, the issue now lies with shorter-dated ones, and specifically5-year rates.\nYields on that maturity have become unanchored in recent weeks, surging above the previous \"red line\" of 0.75% amid speculation that theFed will need to start a cycle of rate hikes perhaps a full year earlier than officials have indicated.That shift has also roiled the outlook for a classic iteration of the reflation wager, a widening gap between 5- and 30-year yields, even as the narrative of a stimulus-fueled recovery has only gained momentum.\n\"The Fed next week will have to walk a fine line between either pushing back against market expectations or allowing them to stand,\"said Kevin Walter, co-head of global Treasuries trading for Barclays. Without Fed pushback \"there might be more pressure on the belly of the curve,\" in which case the best steepeners would be the spreads between 2-year yields versus 5- and 7-year rates that have room to rise as traders price in tightening.\nAnd while most investment bank research divisions, and certainly the Fed, do not expect any liftoff until at least 2023,the swaps market has been reflecting a roughly 75% chance the Fed lifts rates from near zero by around the end of 2022.Indeed, Walter expects no major policy changes next week and anticipates that officials will continue to project rates on hold through 2023, however even doing nothing may force another round of selling amid the recent bout of soaring inflation, one seen as a push by the market to force Powell into some form of Yield Curve Control.\nOn the remote chance that the Fed does signal some 2023 hikes next week,the market will probably bring expectations for rate increases into the first half of 2022 and the 1-year-forward 5-year rate could increase 50 basis points, Peter Chatwell, head of multi-asset strategy for Mizuho International Plc,said in an emailed note. It would also lead to renewed rotation out of growth and into value, further depressing the Nasdaq to SPX chart shown above.\nThat said, most don't expect Powell to address the continued selling in either the long-end or more recently, the belly - the Fed chair gave only a minor reference to the bond-market slump that drove 10-year yields above 1.6%. He emphasized the importance of financial conditions, which remain accommodative, although tech stocks did sink on Friday as yields surged.\nNone of this will help ease inflation fears as the market fears the Fed is rapidly falling behind the curve. As we noted last week, 5Y inflation expectations at the highest since 2008 and robust jobs data have only reinforced bets that the Fed will need to tighten more quickly than it’s been forecasting. The speculation has squeezed wagers on a steeper curve from 5 to 30 years, shrinking that spread to a bit above 150 basis points, from a more than 6-year high of 167 in February. The 5-year yield at 0.84% isn’t far below its highest level since last year. But at the same time, the 2-year has remained near historic lows on the view that the Fed will hold rates near zero for the immediate future. That’s kept bets on the widely watched spread to the 10-year rate in play, as well as versus other maturities, such as the 5- and 7-year.\nAnd with the front-end anchored for a long, long time, the question then becomes what is the most lucrative steepener trade. “Some steepeners are better than others,” said Patrick Leary, senior trader and chief market strategist for Incapital. He expects the 2s10s to keep widening, but has taken profits on steepeners and is looking for a better point to re-enter. Other see potential in the 5- to 30-year steepener. TD Securities has recommended entering that bet at 146.5 basis points, targeting 170, based on what it said was a high bar for hikes and the prospect of elevated coupon supply.\nTaking a step back, the reason why traders have been so focused on the 5-year part of the curve, i.e., \"the belly\", is because it’s seen as one place that may bear the brunt of any subsequent selloff should rate-hike speculation mount further, since the bulk of the liftoff regime is expected to take place within the maturity of a 5 Year note issued now.\nFurthermore, as Bloomberg notes already certain corners of the market are turning their attention to the potential for multiple rate hikes.In swaptions,a position has emerged targeting the Fed to hike seven to eight times by March 2025, according to a Barclays analysis.\nThere is, of course, the risk that markets have gotten ahead of themselves - the whole point of a recent RIC report from BofA, which does not see anywhere nearly enough sustained inflation to justify a 2022 rate hike, let alone 7 by 2025: “it’s possible the market may have gotten a little ahead of itself in the belly,” causing the 5-year rate to rise too much, said Jamie Anderson, head of U.S. trading for Insight Investment. If the data come in weak or the Fed is on hold for longer than expected, “the belly should rally and the curve re-steepen,” he said.\nFor Incapital’s Leary, the narrowing in the 5s30s gap came on the view that officials may discuss - or even announce - a twist next week. Such an operation, involving the sale of shorter-dated holdings and purchase of longer maturities to control yields, would put more pressure on the belly, he says. That would follow the European Central Bank’s decision to ramp up its bond-buying pace.\n“All these trades are highly dependent on the Fed being on the sidelines and not changing its policy stance,” Leary said.“The market is definitely playing a game of chicken with the Fed, by testing how high yields can get before tightening financial conditions and forcing the Fed to step in.\"\nMeanwhile, even as some strategists have brushed aside the yield risk for growth stocks, claiming that tech has shown a fickle relationship with Treasuries over time, Joe Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research,found that since 2014, the Nasdaq 100’s forward earnings yield - the inverse of its price-earnings ratio where the higher it is, the cheaper stocks are - has moved almost in lockstep with forecast corporate bond rates.\nIn his model, if 10-year Treasury yields rise to 2% this year, that in turn could drive long-term Baa-rated bond rates to 4.5%, a scenario wherethe Nasdaq 100 would have to drop as much as 20% to stay attractive, all else equal.If yields climbed but the Nasdaq didn’t move, this would indicate over-valuation, Kalish said, adding his model correctly flashed warnings in 1987 and 2000.\nAlso keep in mind that even after the recent drop, the price-earnings ratio of the Nasdaq 100 - at 28 - is nowhere near cheap relative to other stocks, and is a 7% premium over the S&P 500.\nFinally, the growth advantage that has sustained tech’s outperformance in all but one year since 2009 is poised to disappear - at least for the next two years - as pandemic-beaten firms like airlines and automakers roar back. Profits from software and internet companies are expected to expand 22% this year and 12% in 2022. Both lag behind the broad S&P 500, where earnings are forecast to increase 24% and 15%, respectively.\nSo going back to the top chart, and with Nasdaq 100 knocking on the door of its relative peak, it’d be a mistake not to consider the downside risk, according to Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Leuthold Group.\n“New-era investments are at a significant crossroads,” he said.“After a prolonged period of extensive outperformance by the Nasdaq and tech stocks, it is not unreasonable to foresee a phase of underperformance, consolidation or even an outright collapse.”\nIf all this sounds unnecessarily convoluted, we remind you of what Rabobank's Michael Everysaid overnight, in what may be the best summary of the Fed's options:\n\n \"If Powell does nothing, we could perhaps be on the verge of a 2013-style Taper Tantrum. That would send Godzilla-sized shockwaves through markets everywhere, including Tokyo. (And I now think of 1970/80’s British TV ads where a Mock-zilla would eat famous global landmarks before deciding he preferred a certain candy “even chewier than a Barrow-in-Furness bus depot.”) \"\"Of course, Powell could say something or do something: Operation Twist and Shout; or YCC. First of all, this would then show that there is a disconnect between the Treasury and the Fed, which is hardly ideal. Moreover, such steps would prompt a major market flattening, but of two different kinds (short end up and long end down; or just long end down).\n As I keep repeating here, YCC would also open the door for some seriously new epic adventures, like opening the mysterious giant gate behind which King Kong is found on his remote island.\"\n\nIn short, brace for a burst of volatility on Thursday when Powell (and tech stock bulls) will be damned if the Fed Chairdoesn'tdo anything, and damned if he does...","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":585,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":325878229,"gmtCreate":1615890228061,"gmtModify":1703494533610,"author":{"id":"3557877754400520","authorId":"3557877754400520","name":"luanluanlai","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557877754400520","authorIdStr":"3557877754400520"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/U14.SI\">$UOL GROUP LIMITED(U14.SI)$</a>Beautiful candle for today!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/U14.SI\">$UOL GROUP LIMITED(U14.SI)$</a>Beautiful candle for today!","text":"$UOL GROUP LIMITED(U14.SI)$Beautiful candle for today!","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71b19608df41f91996f2030a54b27f2e","width":"1080","height":"3024"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/325878229","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":433,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":323795066,"gmtCreate":1615373308555,"gmtModify":1703488054352,"author":{"id":"3557877754400520","authorId":"3557877754400520","name":"luanluanlai","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557877754400520","authorIdStr":"3557877754400520"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BS6.SI\">$YANGZIJIANG SHIPBLDG HLDGS LTD(BS6.SI)$</a>very strong price action today!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BS6.SI\">$YANGZIJIANG SHIPBLDG HLDGS LTD(BS6.SI)$</a>very strong price action today!","text":"$YANGZIJIANG SHIPBLDG HLDGS LTD(BS6.SI)$very strong price action today!","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c710086701bc5031fe7762c6786e41c9","width":"1080","height":"3024"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/323795066","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":527,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":320632210,"gmtCreate":1615090264330,"gmtModify":1703484655678,"author":{"id":"3557877754400520","authorId":"3557877754400520","name":"luanluanlai","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557877754400520","authorIdStr":"3557877754400520"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/U14.SI\">$UOL GROUP LIMITED(U14.SI)$</a>Entry into UOL at 7.4, 1st TP at 8.23.","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/U14.SI\">$UOL GROUP LIMITED(U14.SI)$</a>Entry into UOL at 7.4, 1st TP at 8.23.","text":"$UOL GROUP LIMITED(U14.SI)$Entry into UOL at 7.4, 1st TP at 8.23.","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfcfb804c0aa7d93c19a23536bf37dfb","width":"1080","height":"603"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/320632210","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1016,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":384148268,"gmtCreate":1613631509554,"gmtModify":1631888990203,"author":{"id":"3557877754400520","authorId":"3557877754400520","name":"luanluanlai","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557877754400520","authorIdStr":"3557877754400520"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01317\">$MAPLELEAF EDU(01317)$</a>Entered long position at 2.22, TP: 3.40, SL: 1.67Will have to monitor how does price react when approaching downtrend line.","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01317\">$MAPLELEAF EDU(01317)$</a>Entered long position at 2.22, TP: 3.40, SL: 1.67Will have to monitor how does price react when approaching downtrend line.","text":"$MAPLELEAF EDU(01317)$Entered long position at 2.22, TP: 3.40, SL: 1.67Will have to monitor how does price react when approaching downtrend line.","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af73e7a8ad57f3db3e677f7ae7bb58ba","width":"1079","height":"611"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/384148268","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":804,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":381030815,"gmtCreate":1612909920637,"gmtModify":1703766769701,"author":{"id":"3557877754400520","authorId":"3557877754400520","name":"luanluanlai","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557877754400520","authorIdStr":"3557877754400520"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AITX\">$Artificial Intelligence Technology Solutions Inc.(AITX)$</a>[龇牙]&nbsp;[龇牙]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AITX\">$Artificial Intelligence Technology Solutions Inc.(AITX)$</a>[龇牙]&nbsp;[龇牙]&nbsp;","text":"$Artificial Intelligence Technology Solutions Inc.(AITX)$[龇牙] [龇牙]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/381030815","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1287,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":312207859,"gmtCreate":1612147803871,"gmtModify":1703757947980,"author":{"id":"3557877754400520","authorId":"3557877754400520","name":"luanluanlai","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557877754400520","authorIdStr":"3557877754400520"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/S63.SI\">$SINGAPORE TECH ENGINEERING LTD(S63.SI)$</a>Entry at 3.71 after bounce from bottom of&nbsp;uptrend channel.TP at 3.94, SL at 3.60","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/S63.SI\">$SINGAPORE TECH ENGINEERING LTD(S63.SI)$</a>Entry at 3.71 after bounce from bottom of&nbsp;uptrend channel.TP at 3.94, SL at 3.60","text":"$SINGAPORE TECH ENGINEERING LTD(S63.SI)$Entry at 3.71 after bounce from bottom of uptrend channel.TP at 3.94, SL at 3.60","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8db62ee65594e5abeea2eed49a4cb33c","width":"1922","height":"1079"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/312207859","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":636,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":333846451,"gmtCreate":1609244665873,"gmtModify":1703738380366,"author":{"id":"3557877754400520","authorId":"3557877754400520","name":"luanluanlai","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557877754400520","authorIdStr":"3557877754400520"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/O32.SI\">$OLAM INTERNATIONAL LIMITED(O32.SI)$</a>Potential trade entry at 1.49TP at 1.60, SL at 1.40","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/O32.SI\">$OLAM INTERNATIONAL LIMITED(O32.SI)$</a>Potential trade entry at 1.49TP at 1.60, SL at 1.40","text":"$OLAM INTERNATIONAL LIMITED(O32.SI)$Potential trade entry at 1.49TP at 1.60, SL at 1.40","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/723f6e367b217a40db1a666b43e4b7fd","width":"1080","height":"781"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":10,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/333846451","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1195,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":313244385,"gmtCreate":1611731659747,"gmtModify":1703752705707,"author":{"id":"3557877754400520","authorId":"3557877754400520","name":"luanluanlai","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557877754400520","authorIdStr":"3557877754400520"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T82U.SI\">$SUNTEC REAL ESTATE INV TRUST(T82U.SI)$</a>Possible breakout from resistance at 1.57,&nbsp;TP at 1.77, SL at 1.46","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T82U.SI\">$SUNTEC REAL ESTATE INV TRUST(T82U.SI)$</a>Possible breakout from resistance at 1.57,&nbsp;TP at 1.77, SL at 1.46","text":"$SUNTEC REAL ESTATE INV TRUST(T82U.SI)$Possible breakout from resistance at 1.57, TP at 1.77, SL at 1.46","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/279b820b84bbe265e1668684a8209750","width":"1899","height":"953"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/313244385","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":826,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":320632210,"gmtCreate":1615090264330,"gmtModify":1703484655678,"author":{"id":"3557877754400520","authorId":"3557877754400520","name":"luanluanlai","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557877754400520","authorIdStr":"3557877754400520"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/U14.SI\">$UOL GROUP LIMITED(U14.SI)$</a>Entry into UOL at 7.4, 1st TP at 8.23.","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/U14.SI\">$UOL GROUP LIMITED(U14.SI)$</a>Entry into UOL at 7.4, 1st TP at 8.23.","text":"$UOL GROUP LIMITED(U14.SI)$Entry into UOL at 7.4, 1st TP at 8.23.","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfcfb804c0aa7d93c19a23536bf37dfb","width":"1080","height":"603"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/320632210","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1016,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":152824252,"gmtCreate":1625282374076,"gmtModify":1631885619457,"author":{"id":"3557877754400520","authorId":"3557877754400520","name":"luanluanlai","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557877754400520","authorIdStr":"3557877754400520"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F34.SI\">$WILMAR INTERNATIONAL LIMITED(F34.SI)$</a>also reaching support level. To see if level holds.","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F34.SI\">$WILMAR INTERNATIONAL LIMITED(F34.SI)$</a>also reaching support level. To see if level holds.","text":"$WILMAR INTERNATIONAL LIMITED(F34.SI)$also reaching support level. To see if level holds.","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff8893672f6cac892685e2c91fd59462","width":"1080","height":"619"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/152824252","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2690,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":312207859,"gmtCreate":1612147803871,"gmtModify":1703757947980,"author":{"id":"3557877754400520","authorId":"3557877754400520","name":"luanluanlai","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557877754400520","authorIdStr":"3557877754400520"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/S63.SI\">$SINGAPORE TECH ENGINEERING LTD(S63.SI)$</a>Entry at 3.71 after bounce from bottom of&nbsp;uptrend channel.TP at 3.94, SL at 3.60","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/S63.SI\">$SINGAPORE TECH ENGINEERING LTD(S63.SI)$</a>Entry at 3.71 after bounce from bottom of&nbsp;uptrend channel.TP at 3.94, SL at 3.60","text":"$SINGAPORE TECH ENGINEERING LTD(S63.SI)$Entry at 3.71 after bounce from bottom of uptrend channel.TP at 3.94, SL at 3.60","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8db62ee65594e5abeea2eed49a4cb33c","width":"1922","height":"1079"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/312207859","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":636,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":698623726,"gmtCreate":1640388765662,"gmtModify":1640388766019,"author":{"id":"3557877754400520","authorId":"3557877754400520","name":"luanluanlai","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557877754400520","authorIdStr":"3557877754400520"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice!","listText":"Nice!","text":"Nice!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/698623726","repostId":"1156159690","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2394,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":152126327,"gmtCreate":1625277059569,"gmtModify":1631885619470,"author":{"id":"3557877754400520","authorId":"3557877754400520","name":"luanluanlai","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557877754400520","authorIdStr":"3557877754400520"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice!","listText":"Nice!","text":"Nice!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/152126327","repostId":"1165340887","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3639,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":384148268,"gmtCreate":1613631509554,"gmtModify":1631888990203,"author":{"id":"3557877754400520","authorId":"3557877754400520","name":"luanluanlai","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557877754400520","authorIdStr":"3557877754400520"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01317\">$MAPLELEAF EDU(01317)$</a>Entered long position at 2.22, TP: 3.40, SL: 1.67Will have to monitor how does price react when approaching downtrend line.","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01317\">$MAPLELEAF EDU(01317)$</a>Entered long position at 2.22, TP: 3.40, SL: 1.67Will have to monitor how does price react when approaching downtrend line.","text":"$MAPLELEAF EDU(01317)$Entered long position at 2.22, TP: 3.40, SL: 1.67Will have to monitor how does price react when approaching downtrend line.","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af73e7a8ad57f3db3e677f7ae7bb58ba","width":"1079","height":"611"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/384148268","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":804,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":398051885,"gmtCreate":1606799999547,"gmtModify":1703844490697,"author":{"id":"3557877754400520","authorId":"3557877754400520","name":"luanluanlai","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557877754400520","authorIdStr":"3557877754400520"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/G13.SI\">$GENTING SINGAPORE LIMITED(G13.SI)$</a>After price gap up on 16 Nov, currently pullback to test support at 0.84. Bullish if today can close above support.","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/G13.SI\">$GENTING SINGAPORE LIMITED(G13.SI)$</a>After price gap up on 16 Nov, currently pullback to test support at 0.84. Bullish if today can close above support.","text":"$GENTING SINGAPORE LIMITED(G13.SI)$After price gap up on 16 Nov, currently pullback to test support at 0.84. Bullish if today can close above support.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/398051885","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":859,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3527667803686145","authorId":"3527667803686145","name":"社区成长助手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b7c7106b5c0c8b0037faa67439d898f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3527667803686145","authorIdStr":"3527667803686145"},"content":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引","text":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引","html":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":157839067,"gmtCreate":1625576908059,"gmtModify":1631885594409,"author":{"id":"3557877754400520","authorId":"3557877754400520","name":"luanluanlai","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557877754400520","authorIdStr":"3557877754400520"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C6L.SI\">$SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD(C6L.SI)$</a>breakout trade?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C6L.SI\">$SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD(C6L.SI)$</a>breakout trade?","text":"$SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD(C6L.SI)$breakout trade?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30518e793673e59c08c54044a05883f7","width":"1080","height":"557"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/157839067","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2122,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}