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IP属地：江苏

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3主题

0勋章

08-27

他能做到首富一点是有两把刷子的，知道在这边不能这么做，所以搞死股东，诶，可怜的

黄峥总有办法不做首富

08-26

$拼多多(PDD)$ 财报好是一定的，只是走势并不跟跑，好在前天大跌洗盘，所以大概率利好上冲，不用上冲下洗了，期待吧🤓🥹🥹🥹

08-07

$超微电脑(SMCI)$ 吓死人了

08-05

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 目前是刺破前面跳空缺口，待到财报来临收复失地，头牛不可和菜牛 PK，所以该高看要高看，

07-26

看空不做空

07-25

加仓，吓死，但是加仓

07-23

觉得结果可能不会，但是股票可能还要涨

07-23

资本的吹鼓手，没有好下场，如果压榨百姓也算一个高科技那么美团之流岂不是顶顶高科技

只有萝卜快跑还不够

07-18

为什么股票市值这么低？

07-16

$小米集团ADR(XIACY)$ 啥也不是，坑货一个，15.5 大概率吧，回购的操盘手也是菜鸡一只

07-16

啥也不是，可怜国人

07-12

必须下行吧，短线已经空头走势，为宇宙 NV 财报上行留下空间

07-10

和穷人抢饭，这就是中国高科技企业的格局，一声叹息

07-10

$台积电(TSM)$ 没有没有不敢不敢

07-10

最近的操作烂死了

07-03

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 要上天了吗？卖在人声鼎沸处一般不会错

06-27

$美光科技(MU)$ 双杀

06-23

高光时刻大概就是财报前 800 块买了 NV ，领头羊不是盖的，还是要买领头羊，跟风股不行不行另外可惜了 Avago，本来重仓被洗掉了

06-19

Replying to @浪游股海:可以办新加坡卡//@浪游股海:账号注册很久了，香港银行卡拒我好多次，昨天才搞定，绑定成功 [得意]

06-19

哇哇哇 [捂脸] [捂脸] [捂脸]，这个不能提啊不能提

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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17:05","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"黄峥总有办法不做首富","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2462153057","media":"蓝鲸财经","summary":"发布了一份略不及市场预期的财报之后，拼多多股价昨晚暴跌近 30%，创下过去两年来的最大单日跌幅，跌没了一个半的京东、大概 2 个百度的市值。从长远来看，盈利能力的下降是不可避免的。拼多多的股价在今年 5 月达到 164 美元的高位，这让隐居幕后的黄峥之后超过钟睒睒再度成为中国首富。现在，拼多多回到了 100 美元，黄峥也如愿失去首富地位。","content":"<html><body><blockquote>\n<p>作者｜山上 薛星星</p>\n<p>编辑｜蒋浇</p>\n</blockquote>\n<p>发布了一份略不及市场预期的财报之后，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>股价昨晚暴跌近 30%，创下过去两年来的最大单日跌幅，跌没了一个半的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>、大概 2 个<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>的市值。</p>\n<p>但对股价影响最大的或许还不是增速放缓，而是管理层在财报电话会上多次对投资者们的警告——利润下降不可避免、高收入增长不可持续。</p>\n<p>分析师们对于管理层如此悲观的表态感到惊讶。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>形容说，“管理层的评论吓到了市场。”他们仍然维持对拼多多的买入评级，坚定看好拼多多。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>的分析师们称，管理层的语气意外的消极，认为公司对长期盈利能力的评论过于保守。</p>\n<p>拼多多集团董事长、联席 CEO 陈磊说，过去几个季度的利润增长是短期投入周期和财报周期不同步的结果，不能作为长期指引。我想向投资者们明确表示，从 Q3 开始我们的利润将逐渐下降，短期内不会反弹。从长远来看，盈利能力的下降是不可避免的。</p>\n<p>他强调了竞争的激烈、外部环境的不确定性，整个发言基本上只有一个意思，“高收入增长是不可持续的，盈利能力的下降趋势是不可避免的。”</p>\n<p>这话另一位联席 CEO 赵佳臻后来又重复了一遍。财报中财务副总裁刘珺也说，展望未来，由于竞争加剧和外部挑战，收入增长不可避免地面临压力。 “随着我们继续坚决投资，盈利能力也可能受到影响。”</p>\n<p>短短一个小时的电话，除了拼多多管理层老生常谈的对商家加大扶持、对农业的投入之外，更有用的信息同样是负面的——陈磊对外称他们将不会进行任何股票回购或者分红。</p>\n<p>拼多多的股价在今年 5 月达到 164 美元的高位，这让隐居幕后的黄峥之后超过钟睒睒再度成为中国首富。现在，拼多多回到了 100 美元，黄峥也如愿失去首富地位。上次他成为首富还是 4 年前，是中国最快白手起家达到首富的人。很快，他对外宣布卸任 CEO，将个人所持拼多多股份从 43.3%下降至 29.4%，身家缩水超千亿，让出首富。</p>\n<p>最新的彭博亿万富翁指数显示，目前黄峥身家落后于钟睒睒、马化腾、张一鸣，排名中国第四。</p>\n<p><img src=\"http://img.jiemian.com/101/original/20240827/172474256171679300.png\"/></p>\n<p>彭博万亿富翁指数，黄峥排名全球第 45 位</p>\n<p><strong>01｜增速放缓了，仍然是电商最高</strong></p>\n<p>即便当季度拼多多增速放缓、不及市场预期，拼多多仍然是迄今为止中国互联网公司中增长最快、效率最高的公司之一。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>的淘天板块当季收入同比跌了 1%，京东 1.2%的收入增速创下上市以来的新低，拼多多当季收入虽然不再维持过去几季度的翻倍增长，但仍达到 86%。拼多多的收入算上了海外的 Temu，但即便阿里加上国际板块，增速仍然不敌拼多多。</p>\n<p>二季度拼多多 970.6 亿元的总收入中，以国内主站广告收入为主的在线营销收入贡献 491.2 亿元，包括 Temu 佣金收入在内的交易服务收入贡献 479.44 亿元，增速分别为 29%和 234%。</p>\n<p>收入增速放缓主要受到交易服务收入影响。过去几个季度，拼多多的交易服务收入一直是收入增长的大头，增速维持在 300% 以上。本季度拼多多在线营销和交易服务两块收入增速均出现下滑，但交易服务收入下降幅度更大，拖累整体业绩表现。</p>\n<p>用陈磊在电话会上的说法，现在他们已经在全球展开业务，过去几个季度中，他们越发注意到外部环境越来越受到非商业因素的影响，对经营带来了明显的更大不确定性，行业内竞争越来越激烈。</p>\n<p>“我们的全球业务正面临激烈的竞争和不断演变的外部事件带来的重大不确定性。”陈磊说，正如本季度业绩所示，高收入增长是不可持续的，盈利能力的下降是不可避免的。</p>\n<p>Temu 是拼多多过去一年多来增长的主要动力。Temu 依靠低价取胜，客单价远低于海外的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>，发展迅速，目前已进入全球 70 多个国家及地区。</p>\n<p><img src=\"http://img.jiemian.com/101/original/20240827/172474256189078300.png\"/></p>\n<p>Temu 网页版截图</p>\n<p>摩根士丹利分析师此前预测 Temu 今年 GMV 将达到 530 亿美元，且欧洲市场今年将超过美国成为 Temu 最大市场，预计 Temu 最快将在 2025 年实现盈利。为抵御 Temu 的竞争，亚马逊计划推出低价板块，今年 6 月开始召集部分中国跨境卖家进行沟通。</p>\n<p>但与拼多多在国内掀起的仅退款风波类似，Temu 对于商家们的罚款政策同样引起反弹。多家媒体此前报道称，上月 Temu 商家已经两次围堵拼多多办公室。网络流传的视频显示，商家们进入到拼多多广州的办公场地，抗议平台恶意罚款。</p>\n<p>中国证券报引述拼多多回应称，“平台不会去赚商家违规罚款这个钱，罚了也是赔给消费者。”财新得到的回应称，拼多多表示客诉问题千差万别，协议无法一一列举，平台已提供商家的申诉通道，以及向买手了解更具体原因的途径，不存在不告知罚款的原因。</p>\n<p>财报电话会上，陈磊宣布了一项针对商家的优惠政策，宣布未来一年将减免 100 亿元的商家交易服务费。</p>\n<p><strong>02｜现在不是回购和分红的好时机</strong></p>\n<p>为了抵抗股价的不断下滑，去年至今，中国互联网公司们已经开始了一场大规模的股票回购行动，力度及频次均超以往。</p>\n<p>阿里巴巴在 2024 财年（2023 年 3 月至 2024 年 3 月）花费了 125 亿美元回购，是中国互联网公司中回购力度最大的。新财年阿里的回购规模有增无减，上一季度又花了 58 亿美元回购，是过去几季度中规模最大的一次。未来的 3 年时间内，阿里巴巴的回购计划中仍余 261 亿美元回购额度。</p>\n<p>京东在 2020 年启动了回购计划，3 年回购不超过 30 亿美元的股份，截至去年底只使用了回购计划的一半。今年 3 月现有股票回购计划到期，京东又提出新的 30 亿美元回购计划，单是二季度就回购了 21 亿美元。在第二大股东<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">沃尔玛</a>上周清仓所持京东股票后，京东次日即宣布耗资 3.9 亿美元回购，将新的回购计划余额使用殆尽。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>仅仅在今年上半年就花费了 523 亿港元回购，回购金额超过去年全年，是港股中回购金额最大的上市公司。包括美团、小米、快手、百度等公司在内回购力度均超以往。</p>\n<p>证券市场周刊发文称，2024 年中国科技企业继续加码回购，今年似有望成为中国科技板块回购规模创纪录的一年。</p>\n<p>只有拼多多是其中的例外。按照陈磊的说法，管理层们一致认为现在不是进行股票回购或者分红的好时机，“在可预见的未来几年内，我们也不认为有这样的需求。”</p>\n<p>这已经不是拼多多第一次拒绝回购或派息。今年年初的第四季度财报电话会上，财务副总裁刘珺在回答分析师提问时就表示，不同的公司处于不同的发展阶段，拼多多还处在投资阶段，目前的重点仍然是投资长期价值，不会进行回购或派息。</p>\n<p>拼多多仍然是人们熟知的那家高速运转的效率机器。在营收增速放缓的情况下，拼多多当季营销费用仅同比增长了 48%，费用率同比下降，研发费用与去年基本持平。当季，拼多多归属于普通股股东的净利润为 320.09 亿元，同比增长 144%。净利率达到 33%，创下历史新高。非美国通用会计准则下，归属于普通股股东的净利润为 344.32 亿元，同比增长 125%。</p>\n<p>当季，拼多多账面现金、现金等价物及短期投资达到 2849 亿元，比去年底多了 677 亿元，比京东多了近 800 亿。</p>\n</body></html>","source":"lanjinger_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>黄峥总有办法不做首富</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n黄峥总有办法不做首富\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-08-27 17:05 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.lanjinger.com/d/238833><strong>蓝鲸财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者｜山上 薛星星\n编辑｜蒋浇\n\n发布了一份略不及市场预期的财报之后，拼多多股价昨晚暴跌近 30%，创下过去两年来的最大单日跌幅，跌没了一个半的京东、大概 2 个百度的市值。\n但对股价影响最大的或许还不是增速放缓，而是管理层在财报电话会上多次对投资者们的警告——利润下降不可避免、高收入增长不可持续。\n分析师们对于管理层如此悲观的表态感到惊讶。高盛形容说，“管理层的评论吓到了市场。”他们仍然维持对...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.lanjinger.com/d/238833\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0821914370.USD":"贝莱德亚洲成长领袖A2","LU0594300419.USD":"富达中国消费基金A","LU0327786744.USD":"Janus Henderson Horizon China Opportunities A2 USD","PDD":"拼多多","LU0370786039.SGD":"Fidelity Greater China A-SGD","IE00B3M56506.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0329678337.USD":"FIDELITY EMERGING ASIA \"A\" (USD)","LU0516423174.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA FOCUS EQUITIES \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU0633140727.USD":"AB EMERGING MARKETS MULTI ASSET PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (USD) INC","LU0417516902.SGD":"Allianz China Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","LU0052750758.USD":"富兰克林中国基金A Acc","BK4531":"中概回港概念","LU0320764599.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton China A Acc SGD","HK0000320223.HKD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0359201612.USD":"贝莱德中国基金A2","LU0516422440.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA FOCUS EQUITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0516422366.SGD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Asia 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INC"},"source_url":"https://www.lanjinger.com/d/238833","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2462153057","content_text":"作者｜山上 薛星星\n编辑｜蒋浇\n\n发布了一份略不及市场预期的财报之后，拼多多股价昨晚暴跌近 30%，创下过去两年来的最大单日跌幅，跌没了一个半的京东、大概 2 个百度的市值。\n但对股价影响最大的或许还不是增速放缓，而是管理层在财报电话会上多次对投资者们的警告——利润下降不可避免、高收入增长不可持续。\n分析师们对于管理层如此悲观的表态感到惊讶。高盛形容说，“管理层的评论吓到了市场。”他们仍然维持对拼多多的买入评级，坚定看好拼多多。摩根士丹利的分析师们称，管理层的语气意外的消极，认为公司对长期盈利能力的评论过于保守。\n拼多多集团董事长、联席 CEO 陈磊说，过去几个季度的利润增长是短期投入周期和财报周期不同步的结果，不能作为长期指引。我想向投资者们明确表示，从 Q3 开始我们的利润将逐渐下降，短期内不会反弹。从长远来看，盈利能力的下降是不可避免的。\n他强调了竞争的激烈、外部环境的不确定性，整个发言基本上只有一个意思，“高收入增长是不可持续的，盈利能力的下降趋势是不可避免的。”\n这话另一位联席 CEO 赵佳臻后来又重复了一遍。财报中财务副总裁刘珺也说，展望未来，由于竞争加剧和外部挑战，收入增长不可避免地面临压力。 “随着我们继续坚决投资，盈利能力也可能受到影响。”\n短短一个小时的电话，除了拼多多管理层老生常谈的对商家加大扶持、对农业的投入之外，更有用的信息同样是负面的——陈磊对外称他们将不会进行任何股票回购或者分红。\n拼多多的股价在今年 5 月达到 164 美元的高位，这让隐居幕后的黄峥之后超过钟睒睒再度成为中国首富。现在，拼多多回到了 100 美元，黄峥也如愿失去首富地位。上次他成为首富还是 4 年前，是中国最快白手起家达到首富的人。很快，他对外宣布卸任 CEO，将个人所持拼多多股份从 43.3%下降至 29.4%，身家缩水超千亿，让出首富。\n最新的彭博亿万富翁指数显示，目前黄峥身家落后于钟睒睒、马化腾、张一鸣，排名中国第四。\n\n彭博万亿富翁指数，黄峥排名全球第 45 位\n01｜增速放缓了，仍然是电商最高\n即便当季度拼多多增速放缓、不及市场预期，拼多多仍然是迄今为止中国互联网公司中增长最快、效率最高的公司之一。\n阿里巴巴的淘天板块当季收入同比跌了 1%，京东 1.2%的收入增速创下上市以来的新低，拼多多当季收入虽然不再维持过去几季度的翻倍增长，但仍达到 86%。拼多多的收入算上了海外的 Temu，但即便阿里加上国际板块，增速仍然不敌拼多多。\n二季度拼多多 970.6 亿元的总收入中，以国内主站广告收入为主的在线营销收入贡献 491.2 亿元，包括 Temu 佣金收入在内的交易服务收入贡献 479.44 亿元，增速分别为 29%和 234%。\n收入增速放缓主要受到交易服务收入影响。过去几个季度，拼多多的交易服务收入一直是收入增长的大头，增速维持在 300% 以上。本季度拼多多在线营销和交易服务两块收入增速均出现下滑，但交易服务收入下降幅度更大，拖累整体业绩表现。\n用陈磊在电话会上的说法，现在他们已经在全球展开业务，过去几个季度中，他们越发注意到外部环境越来越受到非商业因素的影响，对经营带来了明显的更大不确定性，行业内竞争越来越激烈。\n“我们的全球业务正面临激烈的竞争和不断演变的外部事件带来的重大不确定性。”陈磊说，正如本季度业绩所示，高收入增长是不可持续的，盈利能力的下降是不可避免的。\nTemu 是拼多多过去一年多来增长的主要动力。Temu 依靠低价取胜，客单价远低于海外的亚马逊，发展迅速，目前已进入全球 70 多个国家及地区。\n\nTemu 网页版截图\n摩根士丹利分析师此前预测 Temu 今年 GMV 将达到 530 亿美元，且欧洲市场今年将超过美国成为 Temu 最大市场，预计 Temu 最快将在 2025 年实现盈利。为抵御 Temu 的竞争，亚马逊计划推出低价板块，今年 6 月开始召集部分中国跨境卖家进行沟通。\n但与拼多多在国内掀起的仅退款风波类似，Temu 对于商家们的罚款政策同样引起反弹。多家媒体此前报道称，上月 Temu 商家已经两次围堵拼多多办公室。网络流传的视频显示，商家们进入到拼多多广州的办公场地，抗议平台恶意罚款。\n中国证券报引述拼多多回应称，“平台不会去赚商家违规罚款这个钱，罚了也是赔给消费者。”财新得到的回应称，拼多多表示客诉问题千差万别，协议无法一一列举，平台已提供商家的申诉通道，以及向买手了解更具体原因的途径，不存在不告知罚款的原因。\n财报电话会上，陈磊宣布了一项针对商家的优惠政策，宣布未来一年将减免 100 亿元的商家交易服务费。\n02｜现在不是回购和分红的好时机\n为了抵抗股价的不断下滑，去年至今，中国互联网公司们已经开始了一场大规模的股票回购行动，力度及频次均超以往。\n阿里巴巴在 2024 财年（2023 年 3 月至 2024 年 3 月）花费了 125 亿美元回购，是中国互联网公司中回购力度最大的。新财年阿里的回购规模有增无减，上一季度又花了 58 亿美元回购，是过去几季度中规模最大的一次。未来的 3 年时间内，阿里巴巴的回购计划中仍余 261 亿美元回购额度。\n京东在 2020 年启动了回购计划，3 年回购不超过 30 亿美元的股份，截至去年底只使用了回购计划的一半。今年 3 月现有股票回购计划到期，京东又提出新的 30 亿美元回购计划，单是二季度就回购了 21 亿美元。在第二大股东沃尔玛上周清仓所持京东股票后，京东次日即宣布耗资 3.9 亿美元回购，将新的回购计划余额使用殆尽。\n腾讯仅仅在今年上半年就花费了 523 亿港元回购，回购金额超过去年全年，是港股中回购金额最大的上市公司。包括美团、小米、快手、百度等公司在内回购力度均超以往。\n证券市场周刊发文称，2024 年中国科技企业继续加码回购，今年似有望成为中国科技板块回购规模创纪录的一年。\n只有拼多多是其中的例外。按照陈磊的说法，管理层们一致认为现在不是进行股票回购或者分红的好时机，“在可预见的未来几年内，我们也不认为有这样的需求。”\n这已经不是拼多多第一次拒绝回购或派息。今年年初的第四季度财报电话会上，财务副总裁刘珺在回答分析师提问时就表示，不同的公司处于不同的发展阶段，拼多多还处在投资阶段，目前的重点仍然是投资长期价值，不会进行回购或派息。\n拼多多仍然是人们熟知的那家高速运转的效率机器。在营收增速放缓的情况下，拼多多当季营销费用仅同比增长了 48%，费用率同比下降，研发费用与去年基本持平。当季，拼多多归属于普通股股东的净利润为 320.09 亿元，同比增长 144%。净利率达到 33%，创下历史新高。非美国通用会计准则下，归属于普通股股东的净利润为 344.32 亿元，同比增长 125%。\n当季，拼多多账面现金、现金等价物及短期投资达到 2849 亿元，比去年底多了 677 亿元，比京东多了近 800 亿。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":18,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":342655223910520,"gmtCreate":1724661312783,"gmtModify":1724661315055,"author":{"id":"3555819458512632","authorId":"3555819458512632","authorIdStr":"3555819458512632","name":"baiwan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c94d7df5868f00b1de132be6a20e2c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555819458512632"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$拼多多(PDD)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 财报好是一定的，只是走势并不跟跑， 好在前天大跌洗盘，所以大概率利好上冲，不用上冲下洗了，期待吧🤓🥹🥹🥹","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$拼多多(PDD)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 财报好是一定的，只是走势并不跟跑， 好在前天大跌洗盘，所以大概率利好上冲，不用上冲下洗了，期待吧🤓🥹🥹🥹","text":"$拼多多(PDD)$ 财报好是一定的，只是走势并不跟跑， 好在前天大跌洗盘，所以大概率利好上冲，不用上冲下洗了，期待吧🤓🥹🥹🥹","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/342655223910520","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":134,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":335643350106272,"gmtCreate":1722982027443,"gmtModify":1722982028900,"author":{"id":"3555819458512632","authorId":"3555819458512632","authorIdStr":"3555819458512632","name":"baiwan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c94d7df5868f00b1de132be6a20e2c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555819458512632"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMCI\">$超微电脑(SMCI)$ </a> 吓死人了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMCI\">$超微电脑(SMCI)$ </a> 吓死人了","text":"$超微电脑(SMCI)$ 吓死人了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/335643350106272","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":613,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":335139385524432,"gmtCreate":1722853005944,"gmtModify":1722853014704,"author":{"id":"3555819458512632","authorId":"3555819458512632","authorIdStr":"3555819458512632","name":"baiwan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c94d7df5868f00b1de132be6a20e2c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555819458512632"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 目前是刺破前面跳空缺口，待到财报来临收复失地，头牛不可和菜牛 PK，所以该高看要高看，","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 目前是刺破前面跳空缺口，待到财报来临收复失地，头牛不可和菜牛 PK，所以该高看要高看，","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 目前是刺破前面跳空缺口，待到财报来临收复失地，头牛不可和菜牛 PK，所以该高看要高看，","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/335139385524432","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":234,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":331743255638264,"gmtCreate":1721998844471,"gmtModify":1721998846500,"author":{"id":"3555819458512632","authorId":"3555819458512632","authorIdStr":"3555819458512632","name":"baiwan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c94d7df5868f00b1de132be6a20e2c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555819458512632"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"看空不做空","listText":"看空不做空","text":"看空不做空","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/331743255638264","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":202,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":331421772783696,"gmtCreate":1721920260035,"gmtModify":1721920262257,"author":{"id":"3555819458512632","authorId":"3555819458512632","authorIdStr":"3555819458512632","name":"baiwan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c94d7df5868f00b1de132be6a20e2c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555819458512632"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"加仓，吓死，但是加仓","listText":"加仓，吓死，但是加仓","text":"加仓，吓死，但是加仓","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/331421772783696","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":217,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":330554617147600,"gmtCreate":1721732775032,"gmtModify":1721732777145,"author":{"id":"3555819458512632","authorId":"3555819458512632","authorIdStr":"3555819458512632","name":"baiwan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c94d7df5868f00b1de132be6a20e2c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555819458512632"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"觉得结果可能不会，但是股票可能还要涨","listText":"觉得结果可能不会，但是股票可能还要涨","text":"觉得结果可能不会，但是股票可能还要涨","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/330554617147600","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":301,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":330527721553992,"gmtCreate":1721725873820,"gmtModify":1721725876363,"author":{"id":"3555819458512632","authorId":"3555819458512632","authorIdStr":"3555819458512632","name":"baiwan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c94d7df5868f00b1de132be6a20e2c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555819458512632"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"资本的吹鼓手，没有好下场， 如果压榨百姓也算一个高科技那么美团之流岂不是顶顶高科技","listText":"资本的吹鼓手，没有好下场， 如果压榨百姓也算一个高科技那么美团之流岂不是顶顶高科技","text":"资本的吹鼓手，没有好下场， 如果压榨百姓也算一个高科技那么美团之流岂不是顶顶高科技","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/330527721553992","repostId":"2453779386","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2453779386","pubTimestamp":1721716415,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2453779386?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-07-23 14:33","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"只有萝卜快跑还不够","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2453779386","media":"蓝鲸财经","summary":"在武汉这个被戏称为充满了“超雄司机”的城市里，无人驾驶出租车萝卜快跑强行融入了车水马龙之中。价格优惠、给开空调、没有异味、不会拒载，是很多人眼中萝卜快跑的优点所在。以萝卜快跑目前的业务量，还远没有到可以影响就业市场的程度，最需要关注萝卜快跑动态的还是资本市场。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>文|巨潮 小卢鱼</p><p>编辑|杨旭然</p></blockquote><p>在武汉这个被戏称为充满了“超雄司机”的城市里，无人驾驶出租车萝卜快跑强行融入了车水马龙之中。价格优惠、给开空调、没有异味、不会拒载，是很多人眼中萝卜快跑的优点所在。</p><p>不太赶时间的前提下，也有不少人怀抱好奇体验了乘坐无人驾驶出租车的感觉，然后就会发现Robotaxi好像不会和人那样抢道、别车、加塞，不够灵活变通。</p><p>虽然因为不时出现停摆、卡顿，甚至造成小范围拥堵，萝卜快跑会被武汉人笑骂为“苕萝卜”，但不少司机还是视“苕萝卜”为强有力的竞争者，担心自己成为科技前进过程中那个被车轮碾压的人。</p><p>以萝卜快跑目前的业务量，还远没有到可以影响就业市场的程度，最需要关注萝卜快跑动态的还是资本市场。对计算机、电子、汽车、电新等行业的研究员和专家来说，萝卜快跑如果能成功运营下去，无疑会对产业链产生巨大影响。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35c358c03deb5dc6ae4cea6cd4719053\" alt=\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>股价表现（自2024年4月至今）\" title=\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>股价表现（自2024年4月至今）\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"552\"/><span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>股价表现（自2024年4月至今）</span></p><p>萝卜快跑被密集调研的同时，作为幕后推手的百度股价方面却反应不佳，单日大涨近10%之后就开始剧烈震荡，资本市场对其All in AI战略成果的观望情绪明显。</p><p>毕竟百度近十年在自动驾驶研发上投入了1500亿元，目标不能只是争夺网约车市场那点份额。</p><p><strong>01 技术</strong></p><p>首先要明确的一点是，无人驾驶和人工<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>的发展已经是历史必然的进程之一，即便没有本土的“萝卜快跑”，以<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>为代表的“洋萝卜”们总有一天，也会靠着先进的技术和创新的服务模式杀入中国市场。</p><p>现在的情况是萝卜快跑先在武汉出圈，并且很快会尝试去更多城市运营，特斯拉的Robotaxi原型车却要推迟到10月发布了。这里面很重要的一个影响因素就是，有百度地图加成的萝卜快跑在道路测试数据上很有优势。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fcb1773cfeda458aa3b96525e1b1684\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"488\" tg-height=\"1056\"/></p><p>百度自动驾驶技术部总经理徐宝强曾说过，在城市地图采集、运营准备、换电服务等工作完成后，百度Apollo在一座<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300778\">新城市</a>完成全域无人驾驶运营准备仅需半年时间。“此后，百度地图覆盖的区域，萝卜快跑无人车就能运营”。</p><p>不少乘客都分享过，萝卜快跑无人车只能沿着规划好的路线跑，不会按照他们的要求抄近路、靠边停等等，这里面除了安全方面的考虑，恐怕还是因为无人车现阶段较为依赖高精地图的“指挥”。</p><p>理想情况下，无人车可以通过摄像头得到视觉图像数据、激光雷达得到主动光传感器数据，然后利用感知网络对视觉和主动光特征进行识别，判断出道路特征、障碍物，最后通过大模型学习、锻炼决策能力，实现端到端的无人驾驶。</p><p>形成类人的决策能力是其中最难的一步，更讨巧的做法则是利用好高清地图的导航能力，让无人车沿着安全路线行驶，类似框定考试范围的感觉。所以萝卜快跑在武汉测试伊始，便在不断调整、升级试驾路段的高精地图。</p><p>在这种做法下，识别障碍物就成了另一个关键问题。据说萝卜快跑在改造、迭代无人车型时，就在雷达方面下了不少功夫，用四个扇形雷达代替了一个主激光雷达，以更好的在中短距离内确定障碍物的距离和方位。</p><p>与萝卜快跑等国内厂商不同，特斯拉在改进无人车型时是明显减少了激光雷达的数量的。因为特斯拉FSD采取的是纯视觉方案，摄像头的重要性高于激光雷达，如果成功就能提供更类人驾驶体验，在部分场景自主发掘出超越地图导航表现。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a29c711efc1ee2870bcaaa256855c79\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"572\"/></p><p>近期也有消息称，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>的第四季度新车型将不会使用任何激光雷达，而是转向类似于特斯拉 FSD 的纯视觉智驾解决方案，毕竟何小鹏今年在美国加州体验了特斯拉FSD V12.3.6版本后对其给予了较高的评价。</p><p>不过FSD此类的纯视觉方案的痛点在于，需要海量现实数据和高精轨迹供大模型进行特征分析、训练、验证，最后才能迭代出一个高度精准的AI算法。</p><p>中国政府虽然欢迎特斯拉FSD入华，但在数据和地图的获取能力上，特斯拉大概率不会比百度做的更好。萝卜快跑大可以凭借百度地图多年积累的优势，形成其竞争壁垒。</p><p><strong>02 盈利</strong></p><p>技术路线的优劣暂且不论，投资者、从业者最关心的还是萝卜快跑的商业模式能否跑通，或者说，萝卜快跑的长期盈利能力如何。</p><p>虽然武汉等地的订单大爆发，但萝卜快跑目前还属于烧钱补贴、吸引客户的阶段，如果不使用优惠折扣，萝卜快跑的价格其实是远高于滴滴快车的。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f1406f696244df53dd266ca33c033ef\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"578\"/></p><p>滴滴每公里价格最低约为2.1元，最高为2.8元，而相同距离情况下，萝卜快跑每公里最低单价约为4.6元，最高约为6.2元，只是萝卜快跑会在此基础上打3.5-5折来补贴客户。</p><p>近期萝卜快跑在武汉每车日均峰值订单数在20左右，距离以中短途为主，那么假设平均每天每车接客15单、每单10公里、给客户3.5折优惠券，则客单价约为18.2元，平均每公里收费1.82元，每日每车收入约272元。</p><p>从成本端来看，目前萝卜快跑单车日均成本恐怕在400元以上，大头来自单车制造成本，因为百度旗下Apollo（阿波罗）第五代车造价48万元，折算至每日成本就要263元。</p><p>另外还要加上日常维修保养费用，保险费用、补能成本在内的日常运营成本，和雇佣远程安全员监测无人车的安全运维成本，即便是在武汉这种物价、工资相对较低的地方，这部分的日均成本也肯定超过100元了。</p><p>所以在单车日均成本下降之前，即便萝卜快跑无人车每日接单量超过20单，也不能百分百保证实现盈亏平衡。好消息是，百度Apollo的第六代无人车单车成本有望下降至20.48万元，将大大减轻萝卜快跑的盈利压力。</p><p>而第六代无人车的造价能大幅下降，主要就是得益于规模效应和供应链管理的优化。比如激光雷达等关键零部件，百度Apollo就可以靠大规模采购带来的议价能力，让禾赛科技这种供应商给出一个较优惠的价格。</p><p>而且百度Apollo考虑到无人车的特性，也可以把许多围绕主驾驶位有人才需要的冗余系统去除掉，再搭配自己研发、生产的传感器和计算单元，进一步降低不必要的成本。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e62276ac07f514327474d2ec709dc24a\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"815\" tg-height=\"609\"/></p><p>日常运营成本和安全运维成本也是同理，订单规模越大、车辆闲置时间越短，平摊到每辆车上的停车费、维修费、安全员工资等支出就可以越少。</p><p>尤其是北上广深这种大城市开放无人驾驶之后，萝卜快跑理论上还是可以通过武汉的安全员进行云监测，人车比也可以从1:2、1:5提升到1:10、1:20，对比那些要考虑一线城市人力成本的竞争对手，还是有一定优势的。</p><p>百度曾表示，随着萝卜快跑无人车自动运营网络完成建设，营运成本将降低30%，通过自动驾驶技术和人车舱效率的持续优化，服务成本将降低80%。</p><p>对于萝卜快跑的盈利预期，百度和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>等外部投资机构都较为乐观，计划到2024年底在武汉实现收支平衡，在2025年全面进入盈利期。</p><p><strong>03 蓝图</strong></p><p>萝卜快跑能快速实现盈利并做大做强，对百度来说当然是一件好事，但对百度All in AI的战略布局来说，萝卜快跑的这一点成功还不够。</p><p>2023年，百度致力于全面深化旗下各类产品及服务的“AI原生化重构”战略，成功推出了百度新搜索、百度新文库等一系列AI原生应用，同时还推出了轻舸、品牌智能体等创新的AI营销工具。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/556f61c65ba7e609cac7589cf22a01d2\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"815\" tg-height=\"587\"/></p><p>但是现阶段，AI的研发成果主要还是体现在为百度传统核心业务带来增量收入上。根据财报，文心一言在2023Q4给云业务带来了约6.6亿元的增量收入，预计将在2024年贡献数十亿元人民币的增量收入。</p><p>李彦宏虽然也在财报会议中表扬了萝卜快跑订单增长迅速，但Robotaxi的运营大概不是百度研发无人驾驶技术的核心目标，对公司资产及收入影响有限，更关键的作用还是体现在技术进步对公司估值的加持上。</p><p>毕竟按照高盛等机构的乐观估计，2025年1000辆RT6的年利润为900万元人民币，即便萝卜快跑按照李彦宏希望的，2025年扩到65城、2030年扩到100城，这块业务的利润也很难有百亿量级，还可能引发司机群体抗议等问题。</p><p>车路云一体化，才是百度这样的公司值得大展拳脚的地方，也是政府政策乐于支持的发展方向。</p><p>随着2023-2024年《关于开展智能网联汽车准入和上路通行试点工作的通知》和《关于开展智能网联汽车“车路云一体化”应用试点工作的通知》的发布，车路云一体化实践无疑又被推升了一个高度。</p><p>虽然萝卜快跑在没有车路云一体化建设的城市里，单靠百度地图也能正常运营，但是车路云项目的不断落地会让自动驾驶安全性和效率不断提升，让无人车运营应用场景铺开，这样其商业化进程才能加速。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3233b5f59fd112007b2426a1ee01bd39\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"813\" tg-height=\"645\"/></p><p>车路云一体化项目背后有着更加广阔的市场空间。预计到2025年，车路云领域的市场规模将超过7000亿元，到2030年，智能网联汽车的产值增量将达到2.5万亿级别。</p><p>百度可以参与建设智能化路侧基础设施（5G通信网络、C-V2X基础设施），可以参与建设边缘云、区域云两级云控基础平台，可以推广高精度地图在车路云一体化中应用，当然也能参与智慧公交、城市物流、自动配送等多场景的应用试点。</p><p>到时候，千千万万个智能交通系统设计与开发、交通安全与应急管理、云平台开发与运维、基础设施建设与维护和高精地图与智能驾驶相关的就业岗位，都会被释放出来，让科技进步的带来的社会效益真正体现出来。</p></body></html>","source":"lanjinger_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>只有萝卜快跑还不够</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n只有萝卜快跑还不够\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-07-23 14:33 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.lanjinger.com/d/235647><strong>蓝鲸财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>文|巨潮 小卢鱼编辑|杨旭然在武汉这个被戏称为充满了“超雄司机”的城市里，无人驾驶出租车萝卜快跑强行融入了车水马龙之中。价格优惠、给开空调、没有异味、不会拒载，是很多人眼中萝卜快跑的优点所在。不太赶时间的前提下，也有不少人怀抱好奇体验了乘坐无人驾驶出租车的感觉，然后就会发现Robotaxi好像不会和人那样抢道、别车、加塞，不够灵活变通。虽然因为不时出现停摆、卡顿，甚至造成小范围拥堵，萝卜快跑会被...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.lanjinger.com/d/235647\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f25467dd33e63770731064b931e82bd0","relate_stocks":{"89888":"百度集团-SWR","BK1095":"互动媒体与服务","HK0000320223.HKD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0762542818.HKD":"HSBC GIF MANAGED SOLUTIONS ASIA FOCUSED INCOME \"AM\" (HKD) INC","LU0359202008.SGD":"Blackrock China Fund A2 SGD-H","LU0229945570.USD":"TEMPLETON BRIC \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1023057109.AUD":"BGF CHINA \"A2\" (AUDHDG) ACC","LU0228367735.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - Asian Equity Fund AS SGD","HK0000320264.USD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (USD) ACC","09888":"百度集团-SW","LU0762541174.USD":"HSBC GIF MANAGED SOLUTIONS ASIA FOCUSED INCOME \"AM2\" (USD) INC","LU2476274308.USD":"ALLIANZ CHINA FUTURE TECHNOLOGIES \"AT\" (USD) ACC","HK0000306685.HKD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (HKD) INC","LU0831093199.SGD":"HSBC GIF MANAGED SOLUTIONS ASIA FOCUSED INCOME 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技术首先要明确的一点是，无人驾驶和人工智能的发展已经是历史必然的进程之一，即便没有本土的“萝卜快跑”，以特斯拉为代表的“洋萝卜”们总有一天，也会靠着先进的技术和创新的服务模式杀入中国市场。现在的情况是萝卜快跑先在武汉出圈，并且很快会尝试去更多城市运营，特斯拉的Robotaxi原型车却要推迟到10月发布了。这里面很重要的一个影响因素就是，有百度地图加成的萝卜快跑在道路测试数据上很有优势。百度自动驾驶技术部总经理徐宝强曾说过，在城市地图采集、运营准备、换电服务等工作完成后，百度Apollo在一座新城市完成全域无人驾驶运营准备仅需半年时间。“此后，百度地图覆盖的区域，萝卜快跑无人车就能运营”。不少乘客都分享过，萝卜快跑无人车只能沿着规划好的路线跑，不会按照他们的要求抄近路、靠边停等等，这里面除了安全方面的考虑，恐怕还是因为无人车现阶段较为依赖高精地图的“指挥”。理想情况下，无人车可以通过摄像头得到视觉图像数据、激光雷达得到主动光传感器数据，然后利用感知网络对视觉和主动光特征进行识别，判断出道路特征、障碍物，最后通过大模型学习、锻炼决策能力，实现端到端的无人驾驶。形成类人的决策能力是其中最难的一步，更讨巧的做法则是利用好高清地图的导航能力，让无人车沿着安全路线行驶，类似框定考试范围的感觉。所以萝卜快跑在武汉测试伊始，便在不断调整、升级试驾路段的高精地图。在这种做法下，识别障碍物就成了另一个关键问题。据说萝卜快跑在改造、迭代无人车型时，就在雷达方面下了不少功夫，用四个扇形雷达代替了一个主激光雷达，以更好的在中短距离内确定障碍物的距离和方位。与萝卜快跑等国内厂商不同，特斯拉在改进无人车型时是明显减少了激光雷达的数量的。因为特斯拉FSD采取的是纯视觉方案，摄像头的重要性高于激光雷达，如果成功就能提供更类人驾驶体验，在部分场景自主发掘出超越地图导航表现。近期也有消息称，小鹏汽车的第四季度新车型将不会使用任何激光雷达，而是转向类似于特斯拉 FSD 的纯视觉智驾解决方案，毕竟何小鹏今年在美国加州体验了特斯拉FSD V12.3.6版本后对其给予了较高的评价。不过FSD此类的纯视觉方案的痛点在于，需要海量现实数据和高精轨迹供大模型进行特征分析、训练、验证，最后才能迭代出一个高度精准的AI算法。中国政府虽然欢迎特斯拉FSD入华，但在数据和地图的获取能力上，特斯拉大概率不会比百度做的更好。萝卜快跑大可以凭借百度地图多年积累的优势，形成其竞争壁垒。02 盈利技术路线的优劣暂且不论，投资者、从业者最关心的还是萝卜快跑的商业模式能否跑通，或者说，萝卜快跑的长期盈利能力如何。虽然武汉等地的订单大爆发，但萝卜快跑目前还属于烧钱补贴、吸引客户的阶段，如果不使用优惠折扣，萝卜快跑的价格其实是远高于滴滴快车的。滴滴每公里价格最低约为2.1元，最高为2.8元，而相同距离情况下，萝卜快跑每公里最低单价约为4.6元，最高约为6.2元，只是萝卜快跑会在此基础上打3.5-5折来补贴客户。近期萝卜快跑在武汉每车日均峰值订单数在20左右，距离以中短途为主，那么假设平均每天每车接客15单、每单10公里、给客户3.5折优惠券，则客单价约为18.2元，平均每公里收费1.82元，每日每车收入约272元。从成本端来看，目前萝卜快跑单车日均成本恐怕在400元以上，大头来自单车制造成本，因为百度旗下Apollo（阿波罗）第五代车造价48万元，折算至每日成本就要263元。另外还要加上日常维修保养费用，保险费用、补能成本在内的日常运营成本，和雇佣远程安全员监测无人车的安全运维成本，即便是在武汉这种物价、工资相对较低的地方，这部分的日均成本也肯定超过100元了。所以在单车日均成本下降之前，即便萝卜快跑无人车每日接单量超过20单，也不能百分百保证实现盈亏平衡。好消息是，百度Apollo的第六代无人车单车成本有望下降至20.48万元，将大大减轻萝卜快跑的盈利压力。而第六代无人车的造价能大幅下降，主要就是得益于规模效应和供应链管理的优化。比如激光雷达等关键零部件，百度Apollo就可以靠大规模采购带来的议价能力，让禾赛科技这种供应商给出一个较优惠的价格。而且百度Apollo考虑到无人车的特性，也可以把许多围绕主驾驶位有人才需要的冗余系统去除掉，再搭配自己研发、生产的传感器和计算单元，进一步降低不必要的成本。日常运营成本和安全运维成本也是同理，订单规模越大、车辆闲置时间越短，平摊到每辆车上的停车费、维修费、安全员工资等支出就可以越少。尤其是北上广深这种大城市开放无人驾驶之后，萝卜快跑理论上还是可以通过武汉的安全员进行云监测，人车比也可以从1:2、1:5提升到1:10、1:20，对比那些要考虑一线城市人力成本的竞争对手，还是有一定优势的。百度曾表示，随着萝卜快跑无人车自动运营网络完成建设，营运成本将降低30%，通过自动驾驶技术和人车舱效率的持续优化，服务成本将降低80%。对于萝卜快跑的盈利预期，百度和高盛等外部投资机构都较为乐观，计划到2024年底在武汉实现收支平衡，在2025年全面进入盈利期。03 蓝图萝卜快跑能快速实现盈利并做大做强，对百度来说当然是一件好事，但对百度All in AI的战略布局来说，萝卜快跑的这一点成功还不够。2023年，百度致力于全面深化旗下各类产品及服务的“AI原生化重构”战略，成功推出了百度新搜索、百度新文库等一系列AI原生应用，同时还推出了轻舸、品牌智能体等创新的AI营销工具。但是现阶段，AI的研发成果主要还是体现在为百度传统核心业务带来增量收入上。根据财报，文心一言在2023Q4给云业务带来了约6.6亿元的增量收入，预计将在2024年贡献数十亿元人民币的增量收入。李彦宏虽然也在财报会议中表扬了萝卜快跑订单增长迅速，但Robotaxi的运营大概不是百度研发无人驾驶技术的核心目标，对公司资产及收入影响有限，更关键的作用还是体现在技术进步对公司估值的加持上。毕竟按照高盛等机构的乐观估计，2025年1000辆RT6的年利润为900万元人民币，即便萝卜快跑按照李彦宏希望的，2025年扩到65城、2030年扩到100城，这块业务的利润也很难有百亿量级，还可能引发司机群体抗议等问题。车路云一体化，才是百度这样的公司值得大展拳脚的地方，也是政府政策乐于支持的发展方向。随着2023-2024年《关于开展智能网联汽车准入和上路通行试点工作的通知》和《关于开展智能网联汽车“车路云一体化”应用试点工作的通知》的发布，车路云一体化实践无疑又被推升了一个高度。虽然萝卜快跑在没有车路云一体化建设的城市里，单靠百度地图也能正常运营，但是车路云项目的不断落地会让自动驾驶安全性和效率不断提升，让无人车运营应用场景铺开，这样其商业化进程才能加速。车路云一体化项目背后有着更加广阔的市场空间。预计到2025年，车路云领域的市场规模将超过7000亿元，到2030年，智能网联汽车的产值增量将达到2.5万亿级别。百度可以参与建设智能化路侧基础设施（5G通信网络、C-V2X基础设施），可以参与建设边缘云、区域云两级云控基础平台，可以推广高精度地图在车路云一体化中应用，当然也能参与智慧公交、城市物流、自动配送等多场景的应用试点。到时候，千千万万个智能交通系统设计与开发、交通安全与应急管理、云平台开发与运维、基础设施建设与维护和高精地图与智能驾驶相关的就业岗位，都会被释放出来，让科技进步的带来的社会效益真正体现出来。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":444,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":328580705239128,"gmtCreate":1721262976578,"gmtModify":1721262978860,"author":{"id":"3555819458512632","authorId":"3555819458512632","authorIdStr":"3555819458512632","name":"baiwan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c94d7df5868f00b1de132be6a20e2c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555819458512632"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"为什么股票市值这么低？","listText":"为什么股票市值这么低？","text":"为什么股票市值这么低？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/328580705239128","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":452,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":328102035284080,"gmtCreate":1721121218268,"gmtModify":1721121770041,"author":{"id":"3555819458512632","authorId":"3555819458512632","authorIdStr":"3555819458512632","name":"baiwan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c94d7df5868f00b1de132be6a20e2c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555819458512632"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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