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多多吃苹果
11-15
$英伟达(NVDA)$
150大概率没问题的。 EPS5元也不会远。
多多吃苹果
11-08
曾经努力探寻生活的各种意义……。当时间和钱支持更多的探索和发现时,我试着过一个无意义的生活并自得其乐。
多多吃苹果
11-08
曾经努力探寻生活的各种意义……,当钱和时间都允许去做探索和发现时,我试图过一种无意义的生活并自得其乐。
多多吃苹果
11-07
$英伟达(NVDA)$
150,可轻松达到。
多多吃苹果
11-02
Replying to
@多多吃苹果
:并没有因为选情而改变股票持仓。1️⃣米国总统是有限权力,且国家系统的基础运行多为专业技术官僚;2️⃣宏观经济基本面没有改变。//
@多多吃苹果
:1️⃣两个人都不喜欢。觉得黑莉不错;2️⃣出于对确定性的偏好,希望哈里斯赢;3️⃣看势头,老川会赢[心碎][心碎][心碎]
多多吃苹果
11-02
1️⃣两个人都不喜欢。觉得黑莉不错;2️⃣出于对确定性的偏好,希望哈里斯赢;3️⃣看势头,老川会赢[心碎][心碎][心碎]
多多吃苹果
10-30
打算再跟微软10年,已经跟3年了。
多多吃苹果
10-27
满是诚意的分享。立即关注了。
多多吃苹果
10-22
会。
英伟达市值会超越苹果吗 ?|宅男财经
多多吃苹果
10-21
$英伟达(NVDA)$
会一直持有,到190,只是时间而已。AI浪潮一波未过,一波涌起……
多多吃苹果
10-19
当然是先赚钱,没钱怎么投资?
多多吃苹果
10-17
$英伟达(NVDA)$
应该是英伟达和苹果轮流做第一吧。
多多吃苹果
10-15
定投加仓。(为什么留言总被要求“再多说两句”呢)
多多吃苹果
10-11
再来一次说走就走的极简旅行。
多多吃苹果
10-04
资产配置角度,持有1000多亿套现7亿,有什么可奇怪的?换我会套现更多。
英伟达内部人士今年迄今套现超18亿美元!更多抛售即将到来
多多吃苹果
10-03
扯淡……
多多吃苹果
09-26
$英伟达(NVDA)$
看好。
多多吃苹果
09-19
25个基点更符合联储行事做派。
多多吃苹果
09-14
长持英伟达。阶段持有过苹果和亚马逊。
多多吃苹果
09-12
不用“炒”股票的伎俩,相信经济和技术基本面而长持的人,8%只是一个零头吧。
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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15:56","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"英伟达市值会超越苹果吗 ?|宅男财经","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2477015428","media":"中新经纬","summary":"【宅男财经|首席面对面】当地时间21日,英伟达股价高开高走,尾盘拉升涨超4%,报143.71美元/股,刷新历史新高,公司总市值逼近3.53万亿美元。该股年内涨幅已超190%。而苹果目前市值接近3.6万亿元,暂居第一。英伟达市值会超越苹果吗? 巨丰投资首席投资顾问张翠霞认为,英伟达占全球份额的60%,市占率高、渗透率高。此...","content":"<div>\n<p>【宅男财经|首席面对面】当地时间21日,英伟达股价高开高走,尾盘拉升涨超4%,报143.71美元/股,刷新历史新高,公司总市值逼近3.53万亿美元。该股年内涨幅已超190%。而苹果目前市值接近3.6万亿元,暂居第一。英伟达市值会超越苹果吗? 巨丰投资首席投资顾问张翠霞认为,英伟达占全球份额的60%,市占率高、渗透率高。此外,英伟达订单排期非常乐观,有一些芯片排期已经到了2030年,在提价背景下,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://new.qq.com/rain/a/20241022A05MXX00\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"tencent_tech","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" 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href=\"https://new.qq.com/rain/a/20241022A05MXX00\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://inews.gtimg.com/om_ls/OOERKmWAIjtuqysF01AXehDzOgpk3hFbmzbsha30LA6IcAA_294195/0","relate_stocks":{"BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4576":"AR","IE0003U64NQ7.SGD":"PIMCO BALANCED INCOME AND GROWTH \"M\" (SGDHDG) ACC","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","3NVD.UK":"LS 3X NVIDIA","IE0034235303.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US RESEARCH ENHANCED CORE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","L":"洛斯公司","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","HK0000320223.HKD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (HKD) ACC","BK4501":"段永平概念","IE00B7KXQ091.USD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc USD","IE00B4JS1V06.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (HKD) ACC","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","IE0004086264.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","AAPL":"苹果","IE00BLSP4452.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis 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ACC"},"source_url":"https://new.qq.com/rain/a/20241022A05MXX00","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2477015428","content_text":"【宅男财经|首席面对面】当地时间21日,英伟达股价高开高走,尾盘拉升涨超4%,报143.71美元/股,刷新历史新高,公司总市值逼近3.53万亿美元。该股年内涨幅已超190%。而苹果目前市值接近3.6万亿元,暂居第一。英伟达市值会超越苹果吗? 巨丰投资首席投资顾问张翠霞认为,英伟达占全球份额的60%,市占率高、渗透率高。此外,英伟达订单排期非常乐观,有一些芯片排期已经到了2030年,在提价背景下,会形成对业绩的支撑。而对于苹果来说,手机销量下滑,巴菲特抛售并且以手机为代表的消费电子行业竞争压力大。 张翠霞认为,在全球竞争不断深化和强化的背景下,英伟达早晚有可能会试探并突破苹果的市值。 (文中观点仅供参考,不构成投资建议,投资有风险,入市需谨慎。) (记者 董湘依 制作 郑铮 宅男财经出品)","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":400,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":362452022657248,"gmtCreate":1729518651587,"gmtModify":1729518653389,"author":{"id":"3545282499782202","authorId":"3545282499782202","name":"多多吃苹果","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/432a70f360f69c451f37da889cb769b3","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3545282499782202","authorIdStr":"3545282499782202"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> 会一直持有,到190,只是时间而已。AI浪潮一波未过,一波涌起……","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> 会一直持有,到190,只是时间而已。AI浪潮一波未过,一波涌起……","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 会一直持有,到190,只是时间而已。AI浪潮一波未过,一波涌起……","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/362452022657248","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":767,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":361651696398528,"gmtCreate":1729312506843,"gmtModify":1729312509146,"author":{"id":"3545282499782202","authorId":"3545282499782202","name":"多多吃苹果","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/432a70f360f69c451f37da889cb769b3","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3545282499782202","authorIdStr":"3545282499782202"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"当然是先赚钱,没钱怎么投资?","listText":"当然是先赚钱,没钱怎么投资?","text":"当然是先赚钱,没钱怎么投资?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/361651696398528","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":578,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":360700544364848,"gmtCreate":1729103071621,"gmtModify":1729103073605,"author":{"id":"3545282499782202","authorId":"3545282499782202","name":"多多吃苹果","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/432a70f360f69c451f37da889cb769b3","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3545282499782202","authorIdStr":"3545282499782202"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> 应该是英伟达和苹果轮流做第一吧。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> 应该是英伟达和苹果轮流做第一吧。","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 应该是英伟达和苹果轮流做第一吧。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/360700544364848","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":372,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":359959405580304,"gmtCreate":1728923131642,"gmtModify":1728923133849,"author":{"id":"3545282499782202","authorId":"3545282499782202","name":"多多吃苹果","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/432a70f360f69c451f37da889cb769b3","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3545282499782202","authorIdStr":"3545282499782202"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"定投加仓。(为什么留言总被要求“再多说两句”呢)","listText":"定投加仓。(为什么留言总被要求“再多说两句”呢)","text":"定投加仓。(为什么留言总被要求“再多说两句”呢)","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/359959405580304","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":348,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":358962018627856,"gmtCreate":1728645244557,"gmtModify":1728645246755,"author":{"id":"3545282499782202","authorId":"3545282499782202","name":"多多吃苹果","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/432a70f360f69c451f37da889cb769b3","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3545282499782202","authorIdStr":"3545282499782202"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"再来一次说走就走的极简旅行。","listText":"再来一次说走就走的极简旅行。","text":"再来一次说走就走的极简旅行。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/358962018627856","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":437,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":356368893182264,"gmtCreate":1728006101756,"gmtModify":1728006103737,"author":{"id":"3545282499782202","authorId":"3545282499782202","name":"多多吃苹果","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/432a70f360f69c451f37da889cb769b3","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3545282499782202","authorIdStr":"3545282499782202"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"资产配置角度,持有1000多亿套现7亿,有什么可奇怪的?换我会套现更多。","listText":"资产配置角度,持有1000多亿套现7亿,有什么可奇怪的?换我会套现更多。","text":"资产配置角度,持有1000多亿套现7亿,有什么可奇怪的?换我会套现更多。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/356368893182264","repostId":"2472814618","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2472814618","pubTimestamp":1727961613,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2472814618?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-10-03 21:20","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"英伟达内部人士今年迄今套现超18亿美元!更多抛售即将到来","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2472814618","media":"智通财经","summary":"智通财经APP获悉,今年到目前为止,$英伟达$内部人士已经套现价值超18亿美元的股票,而且更多的抛售即将到来。值得注意的是,英伟达内部人士还计划进一步出售所持英伟达股票。而在这段时间内,英伟达的股价下跌了约5%。不过,即使在执行该计划后,黄仁勋仍持有价值超过1000亿美元的英伟达股票。其他抛售英伟达股票较多的包括Mark Stevens和同为英伟达董事的Tench Coxe,他们今年分别套现了约3.9亿美元和5.25亿美元的英伟达股票。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>智通财经APP获悉,今年到目前为止,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>内部人士已经套现价值超18亿美元的股票,而且更多的抛售即将到来。根据Washington Service汇编的数据,英伟达高管和董事在2024年出售了近1100万股英伟达股票,这是自2020年以来最多的一年。</p><p>尽管这部分股票只占英伟达已发行股票的很小一部分,但在英伟达内部人士大举套现之际,投资者对英伟达推迟推出Blackwell系列芯片和人工智能相关支出还能持续多久感到不安。</p><p>值得注意的是,英伟达内部人士还计划进一步出售所持英伟达股票。英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋近期完成了一项预先安排的交易计划,出售了600万股英伟达股票。英伟达董事Mark Stevens控制的一家信托公司已申请再出售300万股英伟达股票,此前他已在今年出售了160万股英伟达股票。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47a205ef3b32fccb54b7698ed66f5dce\" tg-width=\"1058\" tg-height=\"564\"/></p><p>Fulton Breakefield Broenniman研究主管Mike Bailey表示:“当你看到这种内部人士套现的水平时,肯定不会激发信心。但我肯定会将其与其他情况联系起来。”“对于那些正在考虑现在是否是买入英伟达股票的好时机的投资者来说,这可能会让一些人少了一个买入英伟达股票的理由。”</p><p>今年卖出所持英伟达股票最多的是黄仁勋,其10b5-1计划于3月份通过(这些计划预先确定了特定日期的出售情况,与新闻或股价走势无关)。根据该计划,黄仁勋在6月中旬至9月中旬期间抛售了约7.13亿美元的英伟达股票。而在这段时间内,英伟达的股价下跌了约5%。不过,即使在执行该计划后,黄仁勋仍持有价值超过1000亿美元的英伟达股票。</p><p>其他抛售英伟达股票较多的包括Mark Stevens和同为英伟达董事的Tench Coxe,他们今年分别套现了约3.9亿美元和5.25亿美元的英伟达股票。</p><p>在过去的几个月里,英伟达的股票还面临着许多其他压力。Janus Henderson投资组合经理丹Denny Fish表示,最大的因素是人们担心人工智能方面的巨额支出将持续多久。他表示:“当我们进入2025年并看到Blackwell芯片的销售数据时,我们就会得出结论。”</p><p>英伟达股价自今年6月以来一直像坐上了过山车,彼时该公司市值一度超过<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>,成为全球市值最高的公司。自那以后,由于投资者担心科技巨头在人工智能方面的支出无法获得令人满意的回报,英伟达的股价经历了两次超过20%的回调。不过,该股每次都有所反弹,目前已较6月18日的峰值高出约10%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05a7dbf233ff08a3201bbb7fcb252313\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\"/></p><p>虽然更多的内部人士抛售即将到来,但投资者不一定要将抛售——尤其是预先计划好的抛售——解读为看跌信号。Mahoney资产管理公司首席执行官Ken Mahoney表示:“从长期来看,公司内部人士是在买入还是卖出与股票的表现并没有很好的相关性。”“英伟达的首席执行官抛售所持股票不是因为他认为增长正在放缓。他的想法正好相反。”</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>英伟达内部人士今年迄今套现超18亿美元!更多抛售即将到来</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n英伟达内部人士今年迄今套现超18亿美元!更多抛售即将到来\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-10-03 21:20 北京时间 <a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1190029.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉,今年到目前为止,英伟达内部人士已经套现价值超18亿美元的股票,而且更多的抛售即将到来。根据Washington Service汇编的数据,英伟达高管和董事在2024年出售了近1100万股英伟达股票,这是自2020年以来最多的一年。尽管这部分股票只占英伟达已发行股票的很小一部分,但在英伟达内部人士大举套现之际,投资者对英伟达推迟推出Blackwell系列芯片和人工智能相关支出还能...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1190029.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92a41d20711c9fa4b2aa3cc62ea62948","relate_stocks":{"IE00BHPRN162.USD":"BNY MELLON BLOCKCHAIN INNOVATION \"B\" (USD) ACC","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A(离岸)美元","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","IE00BJJMRX11.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD","IE00B19Z9505.USD":"美盛-美国大盘成长股A 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Service汇编的数据,英伟达高管和董事在2024年出售了近1100万股英伟达股票,这是自2020年以来最多的一年。尽管这部分股票只占英伟达已发行股票的很小一部分,但在英伟达内部人士大举套现之际,投资者对英伟达推迟推出Blackwell系列芯片和人工智能相关支出还能持续多久感到不安。值得注意的是,英伟达内部人士还计划进一步出售所持英伟达股票。英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋近期完成了一项预先安排的交易计划,出售了600万股英伟达股票。英伟达董事Mark Stevens控制的一家信托公司已申请再出售300万股英伟达股票,此前他已在今年出售了160万股英伟达股票。Fulton Breakefield Broenniman研究主管Mike Bailey表示:“当你看到这种内部人士套现的水平时,肯定不会激发信心。但我肯定会将其与其他情况联系起来。”“对于那些正在考虑现在是否是买入英伟达股票的好时机的投资者来说,这可能会让一些人少了一个买入英伟达股票的理由。”今年卖出所持英伟达股票最多的是黄仁勋,其10b5-1计划于3月份通过(这些计划预先确定了特定日期的出售情况,与新闻或股价走势无关)。根据该计划,黄仁勋在6月中旬至9月中旬期间抛售了约7.13亿美元的英伟达股票。而在这段时间内,英伟达的股价下跌了约5%。不过,即使在执行该计划后,黄仁勋仍持有价值超过1000亿美元的英伟达股票。其他抛售英伟达股票较多的包括Mark Stevens和同为英伟达董事的Tench Coxe,他们今年分别套现了约3.9亿美元和5.25亿美元的英伟达股票。在过去的几个月里,英伟达的股票还面临着许多其他压力。Janus Henderson投资组合经理丹Denny Fish表示,最大的因素是人们担心人工智能方面的巨额支出将持续多久。他表示:“当我们进入2025年并看到Blackwell芯片的销售数据时,我们就会得出结论。”英伟达股价自今年6月以来一直像坐上了过山车,彼时该公司市值一度超过微软和苹果,成为全球市值最高的公司。自那以后,由于投资者担心科技巨头在人工智能方面的支出无法获得令人满意的回报,英伟达的股价经历了两次超过20%的回调。不过,该股每次都有所反弹,目前已较6月18日的峰值高出约10%。虽然更多的内部人士抛售即将到来,但投资者不一定要将抛售——尤其是预先计划好的抛售——解读为看跌信号。Mahoney资产管理公司首席执行官Ken 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15:46","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"朱啸虎:年底GPT-5达不到预期,英伟达市值就“完蛋了”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1144695188","media":"新浪科技","summary":"大部分被AI取代的人,是因为上班摸鱼太多了。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p> 文丨周文猛</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 在中国创投行业,“周期论”一直是被高频提及的话题。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 近日,金沙江创投主管合伙人朱啸虎表示,“当前,中国正在进入一个以10年为单位的长周期中,而在以前,周期的单位是2~3年。”</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 朱啸虎指出,在周期变长的情况下,生成式AI、PC/移动互联网以及平价消费等领域,仍会出现新的机会点。而对于中国企业和中国消费者而言,都要追求性价比,“就像拼多多一样地给消费者创造极致性价比”。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 此外,他还分享了自己对于AI投资、英伟达的理解。他预判,预计到今年年底,如果OpeanAI的GPT-5.0模型没能发布,或者能力未达到有效提升,英伟达全球第一的市值可能“就完蛋了”。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 以下是《WeTalk》栏目整理的与朱啸虎对话要点,在保持原意的基础上略有修改。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> <strong>“中国现在一些AI创新,要比美国领先”</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 新浪科技:您不投AI大模型公司,但会投AI应用,现在有开始看项目吗?最近流行一个说法是做To B软件的都不赚钱,软件企业都很惨,但AI投资To B又快于To C,你怎么看?</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 朱啸虎:第一,中国企业和中国消费者一样,都要追求性价比。我觉得中国最大问题是程序员太多了,全世界3000万,中国有700万,而且中国700万程序员工作特别努力,工作量都是别人的2-3倍以上。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 第二,实际上中国软件(29.490, 0.51, 1.76%)企业并不惨,大家就是忽视了汇率。中国的软件行业如果把两三亿人民币的收入,比作两三亿美金的收入,中国软件企业不比美国差的。中国只是因为人力成本便宜,国内生产服务业问题就是汇率。 </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 我认为,AI以后可能还是有机会,因为AI可以帮助企业降本增效再升一个数量级,这个时候客户就非常愿意付钱。我就用AI赋能的软件,可能比传统软件要在中国更有机会点,就像拼多多一样地给消费者创造极致性价比。然后AI软件同样给企业客户创造极致性价比,这个时候客户很愿意付钱。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 新浪科技:你现在有跟硅谷的团队开AI会议吗?之前有传中国投资人已经不参与会议了?</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 朱啸虎:开会的,但是以前专门有开一个关于AI对中国创新的会,现在我们还是,但更多的是我们和美国人讲,我们在中国的AI应用上有哪些创新。中国现在的一些AI创新,其实要比美国领先的,第一是数据多,第二是很多时候现在AI达不到100%的准确,在很细分领域可能是60%左右,最好可能80%多,剩下的工作基本是需要人工补齐的,但是需要人工补齐这块,中国肯定是有优势的。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> <strong>“年底GPT-5.0达不到预期,英伟达市值就完蛋了”</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 新浪科技:你怎么看英伟达的?他也是AI的底层,现在市值已经全球第一了。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 朱啸虎:就看Scaling Law(规模法则)有没有效果,如果Scaling Law无效了,它的股价就会跌得一塌糊涂。要看到今年底,OpeanAI能不能发布GPT-5.0,如果是10万-20万张GPU堆算力砸下去,还见不到(GPT)智能能力提升,那英伟达他就完蛋了。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 当然,黄教主(黄仁勋)确实很会销售,他搞了一个主权AI,想让每个国家都要去买自己的AI芯片。所以他会创造概念去销售,今年的股价应该是能撑得住的,但是如果到年底GPT-5.0还做不出来,大家怀疑,就开始危险了。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 新浪科技:前两天苹果提出了一个Apple Intelligence,也可以理解为端侧AI,你怎么看这个事情?</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 朱啸虎:苹果的发布会非常有意思,它至少说明两个问题。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 第一,最重要的是用户体验,而不是技术。你看iPad 新增的那个计算器,你说有啥技术?其实没啥技术,但是用户体验特别好。而且苹果重新定义了入口问题,今天它也可以使用OpenAI的GPT了,但他不给GPT导用户,说明苹果的用户信息不给OpenAI,只统一调接口去访问这个服务就行了,很和谐。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 第二,苹果可以随时切掉OpenAI的服务。之前谷歌为进入苹果生态,每年给苹果支付100多亿美金,今天苹果和OpenAI双方是免费的,如果谷歌的Gemini追上来了,然后再给苹果支付100亿美金,iPhone肯定也会用。所以,最终还是入口为王,而且苹果自己也在做大模型,如果一直没有GPT-5.0,苹果大模型性能上来后,可能就用自己的GPT了。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> <strong>“大部分被AI取代的人,是因为上班摸鱼太多了”</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 新浪科技:如果给想进入AI领域的投资者提一些建议,你会说什么?</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 朱啸虎:你能不能给你的用户创造一个数量级以上的价值,让你的用户对这样的产品尖叫“哇”,这样的极致效果。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 新浪科技:还会有这样的产品吗?</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 朱啸虎:很多,你需要聚焦到一个垂直行业,在这个行业里面生根,真正懂你的客户,知道他们要什么东西。而且知道什么事情是今天AI能做的,或者你加20%的人都能够补齐的。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 新浪科技:对个人有什么建议呢?我们正在经历长周期,而且大家对AI的发展也比较焦虑,它什么都能做!</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 朱啸虎:AI肯定不可能100%取代人类,我觉得达到80%已经很了不起了,在很多细分领域,很多大模型还只能达到50%左右。你只要把你工作效率变得很高,你的表现不要比下面一半的人差,就可以了。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 大部分人为什么被取代,完全是因为上班摸鱼太多,没有用智商。</p></body></html>","source":"sina_tech","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>朱啸虎:年底GPT-5达不到预期,英伟达市值就“完蛋了”</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n朱啸虎:年底GPT-5达不到预期,英伟达市值就“完蛋了”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-06-21 15:46 北京时间 <a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/2024-06-21/doc-inazntae1257659.shtml><strong>新浪科技</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>文丨周文猛 在中国创投行业,“周期论”一直是被高频提及的话题。 近日,金沙江创投主管合伙人朱啸虎表示,“当前,中国正在进入一个以10年为单位的长周期中,而在以前,周期的单位是2~3年。” 朱啸虎指出,在周期变长的情况下,生成式AI、PC/移动互联网以及平价消费等领域,仍会出现新的机会点。而对于中国企业和中国消费者而言,都要追求性价比,“就像拼多多一样地给消费者创造极致性价比”。 此外,他还...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/2024-06-21/doc-inazntae1257659.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d788f727e26434db149309671116a447","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/2024-06-21/doc-inazntae1257659.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1144695188","content_text":"文丨周文猛 在中国创投行业,“周期论”一直是被高频提及的话题。 近日,金沙江创投主管合伙人朱啸虎表示,“当前,中国正在进入一个以10年为单位的长周期中,而在以前,周期的单位是2~3年。” 朱啸虎指出,在周期变长的情况下,生成式AI、PC/移动互联网以及平价消费等领域,仍会出现新的机会点。而对于中国企业和中国消费者而言,都要追求性价比,“就像拼多多一样地给消费者创造极致性价比”。 此外,他还分享了自己对于AI投资、英伟达的理解。他预判,预计到今年年底,如果OpeanAI的GPT-5.0模型没能发布,或者能力未达到有效提升,英伟达全球第一的市值可能“就完蛋了”。 以下是《WeTalk》栏目整理的与朱啸虎对话要点,在保持原意的基础上略有修改。 “中国现在一些AI创新,要比美国领先” 新浪科技:您不投AI大模型公司,但会投AI应用,现在有开始看项目吗?最近流行一个说法是做To B软件的都不赚钱,软件企业都很惨,但AI投资To B又快于To C,你怎么看? 朱啸虎:第一,中国企业和中国消费者一样,都要追求性价比。我觉得中国最大问题是程序员太多了,全世界3000万,中国有700万,而且中国700万程序员工作特别努力,工作量都是别人的2-3倍以上。 第二,实际上中国软件(29.490, 0.51, 1.76%)企业并不惨,大家就是忽视了汇率。中国的软件行业如果把两三亿人民币的收入,比作两三亿美金的收入,中国软件企业不比美国差的。中国只是因为人力成本便宜,国内生产服务业问题就是汇率。 我认为,AI以后可能还是有机会,因为AI可以帮助企业降本增效再升一个数量级,这个时候客户就非常愿意付钱。我就用AI赋能的软件,可能比传统软件要在中国更有机会点,就像拼多多一样地给消费者创造极致性价比。然后AI软件同样给企业客户创造极致性价比,这个时候客户很愿意付钱。 新浪科技:你现在有跟硅谷的团队开AI会议吗?之前有传中国投资人已经不参与会议了? 朱啸虎:开会的,但是以前专门有开一个关于AI对中国创新的会,现在我们还是,但更多的是我们和美国人讲,我们在中国的AI应用上有哪些创新。中国现在的一些AI创新,其实要比美国领先的,第一是数据多,第二是很多时候现在AI达不到100%的准确,在很细分领域可能是60%左右,最好可能80%多,剩下的工作基本是需要人工补齐的,但是需要人工补齐这块,中国肯定是有优势的。 “年底GPT-5.0达不到预期,英伟达市值就完蛋了” 新浪科技:你怎么看英伟达的?他也是AI的底层,现在市值已经全球第一了。 朱啸虎:就看Scaling Law(规模法则)有没有效果,如果Scaling Law无效了,它的股价就会跌得一塌糊涂。要看到今年底,OpeanAI能不能发布GPT-5.0,如果是10万-20万张GPU堆算力砸下去,还见不到(GPT)智能能力提升,那英伟达他就完蛋了。 当然,黄教主(黄仁勋)确实很会销售,他搞了一个主权AI,想让每个国家都要去买自己的AI芯片。所以他会创造概念去销售,今年的股价应该是能撑得住的,但是如果到年底GPT-5.0还做不出来,大家怀疑,就开始危险了。 新浪科技:前两天苹果提出了一个Apple Intelligence,也可以理解为端侧AI,你怎么看这个事情? 朱啸虎:苹果的发布会非常有意思,它至少说明两个问题。 第一,最重要的是用户体验,而不是技术。你看iPad 新增的那个计算器,你说有啥技术?其实没啥技术,但是用户体验特别好。而且苹果重新定义了入口问题,今天它也可以使用OpenAI的GPT了,但他不给GPT导用户,说明苹果的用户信息不给OpenAI,只统一调接口去访问这个服务就行了,很和谐。 第二,苹果可以随时切掉OpenAI的服务。之前谷歌为进入苹果生态,每年给苹果支付100多亿美金,今天苹果和OpenAI双方是免费的,如果谷歌的Gemini追上来了,然后再给苹果支付100亿美金,iPhone肯定也会用。所以,最终还是入口为王,而且苹果自己也在做大模型,如果一直没有GPT-5.0,苹果大模型性能上来后,可能就用自己的GPT了。 “大部分被AI取代的人,是因为上班摸鱼太多了” 新浪科技:如果给想进入AI领域的投资者提一些建议,你会说什么? 朱啸虎:你能不能给你的用户创造一个数量级以上的价值,让你的用户对这样的产品尖叫“哇”,这样的极致效果。 新浪科技:还会有这样的产品吗? 朱啸虎:很多,你需要聚焦到一个垂直行业,在这个行业里面生根,真正懂你的客户,知道他们要什么东西。而且知道什么事情是今天AI能做的,或者你加20%的人都能够补齐的。 新浪科技:对个人有什么建议呢?我们正在经历长周期,而且大家对AI的发展也比较焦虑,它什么都能做! 朱啸虎:AI肯定不可能100%取代人类,我觉得达到80%已经很了不起了,在很多细分领域,很多大模型还只能达到50%左右。你只要把你工作效率变得很高,你的表现不要比下面一半的人差,就可以了。 大部分人为什么被取代,完全是因为上班摸鱼太多,没有用智商。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":656,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":366567778295824,"gmtCreate":1730520661006,"gmtModify":1730520663576,"author":{"id":"3545282499782202","authorId":"3545282499782202","name":"多多吃苹果","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/432a70f360f69c451f37da889cb769b3","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3545282499782202","authorIdStr":"3545282499782202"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"1️⃣两个人都不喜欢。觉得黑莉不错;2️⃣出于对确定性的偏好,希望哈里斯赢;3️⃣看势头,老川会赢[心碎][心碎][心碎]","listText":"1️⃣两个人都不喜欢。觉得黑莉不错;2️⃣出于对确定性的偏好,希望哈里斯赢;3️⃣看势头,老川会赢[心碎][心碎][心碎]","text":"1️⃣两个人都不喜欢。觉得黑莉不错;2️⃣出于对确定性的偏好,希望哈里斯赢;3️⃣看势头,老川会赢[心碎][心碎][心碎]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/366567778295824","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":206,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":333232901173352,"gmtCreate":1722381500947,"gmtModify":1722381503279,"author":{"id":"3545282499782202","authorId":"3545282499782202","name":"多多吃苹果","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/432a70f360f69c451f37da889cb769b3","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3545282499782202","authorIdStr":"3545282499782202"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"100QQQ,100MSFT,100NVDA。","listText":"100QQQ,100MSFT,100NVDA。","text":"100QQQ,100MSFT,100NVDA。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/333232901173352","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":374,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4182346424956632","authorId":"4182346424956632","name":"最赚钱的期权","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a275a333dc1d495e1864823b8e4852f5","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"4182346424956632","authorIdStr":"4182346424956632"},"content":"100买不了nvda现在要114才可以","text":"100买不了nvda现在要114才可以","html":"100买不了nvda现在要114才可以"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":333231089639456,"gmtCreate":1722380992965,"gmtModify":1722380995196,"author":{"id":"3545282499782202","authorId":"3545282499782202","name":"多多吃苹果","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/432a70f360f69c451f37da889cb769b3","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3545282499782202","authorIdStr":"3545282499782202"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"当然看涨。护城河深厚的伟大公司之一。坚定持有,定期加仓。","listText":"当然看涨。护城河深厚的伟大公司之一。坚定持有,定期加仓。","text":"当然看涨。护城河深厚的伟大公司之一。坚定持有,定期加仓。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/333231089639456","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":779,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4173149581503700","authorId":"4173149581503700","name":"显卡之王","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09322b22510beb1d0e83a8d72bd297ac","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4173149581503700","authorIdStr":"4173149581503700"},"content":"有啥护城河,离谱又可笑。未来一切的软件都可以由 AI 生成。一瞬间就塌了。","text":"有啥护城河,离谱又可笑。未来一切的软件都可以由 AI 生成。一瞬间就塌了。","html":"有啥护城河,离谱又可笑。未来一切的软件都可以由 AI 生成。一瞬间就塌了。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":364554609832000,"gmtCreate":1730012608100,"gmtModify":1730012610270,"author":{"id":"3545282499782202","authorId":"3545282499782202","name":"多多吃苹果","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/432a70f360f69c451f37da889cb769b3","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3545282499782202","authorIdStr":"3545282499782202"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"满是诚意的分享。立即关注了。","listText":"满是诚意的分享。立即关注了。","text":"满是诚意的分享。立即关注了。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/364554609832000","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":456,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":308999310246072,"gmtCreate":1716467029764,"gmtModify":1716467031092,"author":{"id":"3545282499782202","authorId":"3545282499782202","name":"多多吃苹果","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/432a70f360f69c451f37da889cb769b3","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3545282499782202","authorIdStr":"3545282499782202"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> 就没下过车啊。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> 就没下过车啊。","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 就没下过车啊。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/308999310246072","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":933,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":278248714354776,"gmtCreate":1708958026477,"gmtModify":1708958028265,"author":{"id":"3545282499782202","authorId":"3545282499782202","name":"多多吃苹果","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/432a70f360f69c451f37da889cb769b3","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3545282499782202","authorIdStr":"3545282499782202"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"木姐自己玩吧。","listText":"木姐自己玩吧。","text":"木姐自己玩吧。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/278248714354776","repostId":"1108113519","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1108113519","pubTimestamp":1708956266,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1108113519?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-02-26 22:04","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"先卖英伟达、再卖台积电,“木头姐”看到了什么?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1108113519","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"英伟达炸裂的业绩也未能说服木头姐重拾对AI硬件的信心。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>英伟达炸裂的业绩也未能说服木头姐重拾对AI硬件的信心,在进一步削减对英伟达敞口的同时,两年多来首次抛售台积电。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2月26日,媒体报道称,华尔街明星基金经理、方舟投资管理公司的CEO“木头姐”凯茜·伍德(Cathie Wood)管理的Ark自主技术和机器人ETF(ARKQ) 上周五卖出了8599份台积电美国存托凭证(ADR),为2021年底以来首次减持。就在同一日,该ETF还卖出了2362股英伟达股票。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">按2月23日周五的收盘价计算,ARKQ出售的台积电股票价值约为111.38万美元,出售的英伟达股票价值达到186.17万美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">根据2月26日方舟资管官网显示,ARKQ在减持后持有166269份台积电的美国存托凭证,占其投资组合的2.39%;持有29060股英伟达股票,占其投资组合的2.54%。台积电和英伟达均跌出了该基金的前10大持仓名单。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d575c1b4a6236ef6fe3115ab335dbc8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"63\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此前木头姐谈及抛售英伟达的原因时曾指出,AI给硬件销售带来的收入增长只是一部分,<strong>软件销售的潜在市场和收入将远远大于硬件,</strong>“每售出1美元的AI硬件,将会让AI软件产生10美元的收入。”</p><h2 id=\"id_1939662615\" style=\"text-align: start;\">木头姐:英伟达涨过了,看好冷门软件股</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">值得注意的是,木头姐曾多次指出,未来AI的发展将改变游戏规则,话虽如此,她并不看好英伟达领导的AI硬件浪潮,几乎全年都在抛售英伟达的股票。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">木头姐认为,英伟达是一个周期性非常强的股票,市场对其的盈利预期过于乐观,当前股价涨过了头,回调的情况会再次发生,竞争加剧和库存调整也将给英伟达带来新的挑战。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">过去12个月英伟达涨幅达到了238%,其主要的合作伙伴台积电在美股也上涨了25%,今年以来,英伟达的涨幅就达到了59%。反观木头姐旗下的旗舰基金,错失英伟达后,ARK创新ETF(ARKK)今年迄今累计下跌近8%;ARKQ今年迄今下滑了超9%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1681f1b9ba65df77c2a2a9e8f1256164\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"281\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">木头姐在抛售英伟达的同时,押注UiPath和Twilio等<strong>较少被提及的冷门软件公司的增长潜力</strong>。<strong>其中,Twilio公司的股价在2月中旬惨遭滑铁卢大跌超18%。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">木头姐称,自己重仓的AI云通信服务商Twilio,股价只有营收的两倍,未来也大有可为。而且很多人都不知道Twilio在为Uber提供通信服务。她说:</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“Twilio现在每年大约有1万亿次消费者业务互动。”</p></blockquote><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d3c76ec39d41bb1803250e48ee95023\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p></p></body></html>","source":"live_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>先卖英伟达、再卖台积电,“木头姐”看到了什么?</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n先卖英伟达、再卖台积电,“木头姐”看到了什么?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-02-26 22:04 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3709068><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>英伟达炸裂的业绩也未能说服木头姐重拾对AI硬件的信心,在进一步削减对英伟达敞口的同时,两年多来首次抛售台积电。2月26日,媒体报道称,华尔街明星基金经理、方舟投资管理公司的CEO“木头姐”凯茜·伍德(Cathie Wood)管理的Ark自主技术和机器人ETF(ARKQ) 上周五卖出了8599份台积电美国存托凭证(ADR),为2021年底以来首次减持。就在同一日,该ETF还卖出了2362股英伟达股票...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3709068\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2bac572b0a8b519ec28258665395e680","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达","TSM":"台积电"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3709068","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1108113519","content_text":"英伟达炸裂的业绩也未能说服木头姐重拾对AI硬件的信心,在进一步削减对英伟达敞口的同时,两年多来首次抛售台积电。2月26日,媒体报道称,华尔街明星基金经理、方舟投资管理公司的CEO“木头姐”凯茜·伍德(Cathie Wood)管理的Ark自主技术和机器人ETF(ARKQ) 上周五卖出了8599份台积电美国存托凭证(ADR),为2021年底以来首次减持。就在同一日,该ETF还卖出了2362股英伟达股票。按2月23日周五的收盘价计算,ARKQ出售的台积电股票价值约为111.38万美元,出售的英伟达股票价值达到186.17万美元。根据2月26日方舟资管官网显示,ARKQ在减持后持有166269份台积电的美国存托凭证,占其投资组合的2.39%;持有29060股英伟达股票,占其投资组合的2.54%。台积电和英伟达均跌出了该基金的前10大持仓名单。此前木头姐谈及抛售英伟达的原因时曾指出,AI给硬件销售带来的收入增长只是一部分,软件销售的潜在市场和收入将远远大于硬件,“每售出1美元的AI硬件,将会让AI软件产生10美元的收入。”木头姐:英伟达涨过了,看好冷门软件股值得注意的是,木头姐曾多次指出,未来AI的发展将改变游戏规则,话虽如此,她并不看好英伟达领导的AI硬件浪潮,几乎全年都在抛售英伟达的股票。木头姐认为,英伟达是一个周期性非常强的股票,市场对其的盈利预期过于乐观,当前股价涨过了头,回调的情况会再次发生,竞争加剧和库存调整也将给英伟达带来新的挑战。过去12个月英伟达涨幅达到了238%,其主要的合作伙伴台积电在美股也上涨了25%,今年以来,英伟达的涨幅就达到了59%。反观木头姐旗下的旗舰基金,错失英伟达后,ARK创新ETF(ARKK)今年迄今累计下跌近8%;ARKQ今年迄今下滑了超9%。木头姐在抛售英伟达的同时,押注UiPath和Twilio等较少被提及的冷门软件公司的增长潜力。其中,Twilio公司的股价在2月中旬惨遭滑铁卢大跌超18%。木头姐称,自己重仓的AI云通信服务商Twilio,股价只有营收的两倍,未来也大有可为。而且很多人都不知道Twilio在为Uber提供通信服务。她说:“Twilio现在每年大约有1万亿次消费者业务互动。”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":751,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":348621342040240,"gmtCreate":1726131135190,"gmtModify":1726131137573,"author":{"id":"3545282499782202","authorId":"3545282499782202","name":"多多吃苹果","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/432a70f360f69c451f37da889cb769b3","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3545282499782202","authorIdStr":"3545282499782202"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"不用“炒”股票的伎俩,相信经济和技术基本面而长持的人,8%只是一个零头吧。","listText":"不用“炒”股票的伎俩,相信经济和技术基本面而长持的人,8%只是一个零头吧。","text":"不用“炒”股票的伎俩,相信经济和技术基本面而长持的人,8%只是一个零头吧。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/348621342040240","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":609,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":348615044395296,"gmtCreate":1726129597746,"gmtModify":1726129599742,"author":{"id":"3545282499782202","authorId":"3545282499782202","name":"多多吃苹果","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/432a70f360f69c451f37da889cb769b3","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3545282499782202","authorIdStr":"3545282499782202"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"大战呵呵呵……","listText":"大战呵呵呵……","text":"大战呵呵呵……","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/348615044395296","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":542,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":272780753182824,"gmtCreate":1707634625927,"gmtModify":1707640839062,"author":{"id":"3545282499782202","authorId":"3545282499782202","name":"多多吃苹果","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/432a70f360f69c451f37da889cb769b3","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3545282499782202","authorIdStr":"3545282499782202"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"亏你想的出来","listText":"亏你想的出来","text":"亏你想的出来","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/272780753182824","repostId":"1181968163","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1181968163","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"致力于提供最及时的财经资讯,最专业的解读分析,覆盖宏观经济、金融机构、A股市场、上市公司、投资理财等财经领域。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"券商中国","id":"9","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d482d56459984e8c86a6a137295b3c4f"},"pubTimestamp":1707610200,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1181968163?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-02-11 08:10","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"如何在投资中\"活\"下去?来看A股中的\"孙子兵法\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181968163","media":"券商中国","summary":" 重阳投资合伙人舒泰峰在《财富善战者说》一书中,以孙子兵法的理论说明了价值投资何以立于不败之地。以下就是舒泰峰所总结的孙子兵法与价值投资的十个相通之处,这十大主题以孙子、巴菲特、芒格的虚拟对话进行详解。《孙子兵法》有云:“避其锐气,击其惰归。”这种像水的智慧,《孙子兵法》说“兵无常势,水无常形”,水至柔却能克万物,正因为它的善于变化。正是《孙子兵法》的终极价值——全胜思想。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p> 沪指年前一度跌破2700点和小市值股票的流动性危机,让很多加杠杆的投资者体会到了投资中的最高法则是活下去。活下去一切都好说,投资只有建立在不败的法则之上,才能在“黑天鹅”来临之际保证活下去。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 对于爆仓或出局的投资者,重阳投资创始人、首席投资官裘国根的观点令人警醒:在投资中,绝不做不可逆的事,如果一种策略不具有遍历性,那么意味着爆仓或出局的可能,投资就变成了危险的“俄罗斯轮盘赌”。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> <strong>“先胜而战”就是一种遍历性法则。裘国根认为,中国传统经典《孙子兵法》的核心思想“先胜而战”与遍历性思维有异曲同工之妙,它不仅要求作战前做好全方位的准备,使自己先立于不败之地,同时还要等待对手松懈或者犯错误时再发起攻击,目标是确保万无一失。所谓的遍历性,是指某类事件在大样本和充足事件的检验下经历各态后,统计结果在时间和空间上是一致的。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 重阳投资合伙人舒泰峰在《财富善战者说》一书中,以孙子兵法的理论说明了价值投资何以立于不败之地。“买股票就是买公司”法则、安全边际法则、能力圈法则、理性对待“市场先生”法则等均体现了孙子兵法的“不可胜在己”“胜于易胜”和“先胜而战”的思想精髓。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 财富善战者,在投资布局之初已获得胜利,就如真正善战的人在战争开始前就已经获胜了,是谓“先胜后战”。以下就是舒泰峰所总结的孙子兵法与价值投资的十个相通之处,这十大主题以孙子、巴菲特、芒格的虚拟对话进行详解。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> <strong>1、以优胜劣:择人而任势</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 什么是好企业?就是能为股东创造长期利润,同时也能为社会创造价值的企业。一个好企业需要有好的管理层、好的商业模式,并且符合产业发展趋势。孙子说:“故善战者,求之于势,不责于人,故能择人任势。”“择人”相当于挑选好的管理层,“任势”相当于顺应产业发展趋势并选择其中好的商业模式,它们一起构成企业的竞争优势。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> <strong>2、以逆克顺:避其锐气,击其堕归</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 好企业不等于好标的,好企业加上好的投资价格才算是好标的。所以除了买好的,还要买得好,也就是买得便宜。但是怎么才能买得便宜?这就需要逆向思维,做到人弃我取。在别人不喜欢的时候买,或者在别人忽略的地方买,才能用合理的甚至比估值低的价格买到优秀的标的。《孙子兵法》有云:“避其锐气,击其惰归。”避开敌军出征时的旺盛斗志,等到敌人松懈返回时予以痛击,其中的原理与投资的原理相同。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> <strong>3、以慢制快:以虞待不虞者胜</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 好价格不会自动出现,就好像好的猎物总是躲在密林深处。它们都需要我们耐心等待,等到潮水退去,喧哗不再。巴菲特十分善于等待,他很欣赏棒球运动员泰德·威廉姆斯,因为威廉姆斯从来不会在真正的好球到来之前乱挥球棒。巴菲特为了等待一个好的标的,也总是不惜花费数年甚至数十年,芒格称之为“坐等投资法”。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 而《孙子兵法》则主张“善守者,守于九地之下”,最终实现“以虞待不虞者胜”,即有准备之师攻击无准备之敌,才能够获得最终的胜利。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> <strong>4、以少胜多:一战而定</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 奉行“坐等投资法”的巴菲特必定不会出手太多次。与许多人喜欢分散投资不同,他更喜欢马克·吐温的建议“把所有鸡蛋放在同一个篮子里,然后小心看好它”。当然,只做一次投资的确太少,他对普通投资者的建议是给自己准备一张只有20个打孔位的卡片,代表一生中能做的投资。一旦你在这张卡片上打满了20个孔,你就不能再进行任何投资了。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 相应地,《孙子兵法》也不主张多打仗,因为打仗消耗的人力、物力很多,会导致“数胜而亡”,总是打胜仗的国家反而可能灭亡。《孙子兵法》之道其实是慎战之道,讲究少打仗(最好不打仗),不战而屈人之兵是最高境界,实在要打也要追求“一战而定”。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> <strong>5、以勇胜怯:疾如风侵掠如火</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 等待不是目的而是手段,它只适用于机会没有来临之时。一旦机会到来,就要勇于扑上去。正如裘国根所说:“机会来时,要敢于重仓出击,踏上两只脚。”巴菲特的表述是:“当天上下金子的时候,应该用大桶去接,而不是用小小的指环。”金融危机发生之时,往往就是巴菲特横扫市场之时。越是观察巴菲特的投资操作,越会发现他就像一个老练的猎人,拥有超人的耐心和毅力,在猎物没有出现之前始终静静地等待,一旦猎物出现,就果断出击,一击而中。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 《孙子兵法》同样讲究要么不打,军队一旦行动,则要“动于九天之上”,其“疾如风”“侵掠如火”“动如雷震”。也就是说,真正善于攻击的部队就像从天而降的神兵,横扫千军,像风像火像雷霆。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> <strong>6、以稳胜险:以正合,以奇胜</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 凡事有限度,过犹不及。重拳出击不代表“ALL IN”(全部投入)或者大举放杠杆。因为杠杆是把双刃剑,既可以让你一夜暴富,也可以让你一夜归零。投资的世界中永远有不确定性,“黑天鹅”市场出没,所以还要记得留一手。巴菲特的账上永远“躺着”至少300亿美元现金和现金等价物,虽然它们收益很低,但是能让巴菲特睡得很安稳。一旦爆发金融危机,当其他公司都为生存而挣扎时,巴菲特还有充足的“子弹”。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 《孙子兵法》说:“凡战者,以正合,以奇胜。故善出其奇者,无穷如天地,不竭如江河。”</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> <strong>7、以变克僵:兵无常势、水无常形</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 巴菲特的投资方法慢的时候像千年神龟,可以静静等待数年乃至数十年,快的时候犹如闪电。芒格将这种方法总结为“条件变了我们也要变”。这种像水的智慧,《孙子兵法》说“兵无常势,水无常形”,水至柔却能克万物,正因为它的善于变化。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> <strong>8、以熟避生:知可以战与不可以战者胜</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 要做到前面7个环节,一个重要的前提是知彼知己。投资归根结底是两件事:一是认识客观的世界,二是认识主观的自己。巴菲特主张不熟不投,即首先要对自己有清晰的认识,避开陌生的东西,绝不能踏出能力圈半步。其次才是对标的进行判断,这就要求投资者一方面要不断习得各类知识和技能了解客观世界,另一方面要诚实面对自己,剖析自己的种种认知偏差,避免成为一个“不知道自己不知道”的傻瓜。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 《孙子兵法》说“知可以战与不可以战者胜”,即知道什么仗可以打,什么仗不可以打的人才能获胜。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> <strong>9、以强胜弱:先胜而求战</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 巴菲特说:“在投资方面,我们之所以做得非常成功,是因为我们全神贯注于寻找1英尺栏杆,而避开那些我们没有能力跨越的7英尺栏杆。”</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 《孙子兵法》则说“古之谓善战者,胜于易胜也”,人人喜欢以少胜多,以弱胜强的传奇故事,其实这些故事大错特错,以多胜少、以强胜弱才是作战的正道。真正善战的人在战争开始前就已经获胜了,是谓“先胜后战”。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> <strong>10、全胜思维:不战而屈人之兵</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 世上道路千万条,投资方法也不少,但是价值投资最接近投资之仁道,它要求用最小的代价买到好的企业,也要求爱惜被投资的企业,必要时要通过改善治理的方式帮助企业实现增长。它不是零和博弈,而是多赢之道。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 《孙子兵法》说:“兵者,国之大事,生死之地,存亡之道,不可不察也。”先胜是手段,全胜才是最终目标,这是因为打仗是国家大事,会牺牲人命,甚至关乎国家的存亡,所以打得赢也要算代价,正所谓“夫用兵之法,全国为上,破国次之;全军为上,破军次之”。用兵之道,使敌人全国降服是上策,用武力击破敌国是次等选择;使敌人全军降服是上策,击败敌军是次等选择。正是《孙子兵法》的终极价值——全胜思想。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n如何在投资中\"活\"下去?来看A股中的\"孙子兵法\"\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/9\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d482d56459984e8c86a6a137295b3c4f);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">券商中国 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-02-11 08:10</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p> 沪指年前一度跌破2700点和小市值股票的流动性危机,让很多加杠杆的投资者体会到了投资中的最高法则是活下去。活下去一切都好说,投资只有建立在不败的法则之上,才能在“黑天鹅”来临之际保证活下去。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 对于爆仓或出局的投资者,重阳投资创始人、首席投资官裘国根的观点令人警醒:在投资中,绝不做不可逆的事,如果一种策略不具有遍历性,那么意味着爆仓或出局的可能,投资就变成了危险的“俄罗斯轮盘赌”。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> <strong>“先胜而战”就是一种遍历性法则。裘国根认为,中国传统经典《孙子兵法》的核心思想“先胜而战”与遍历性思维有异曲同工之妙,它不仅要求作战前做好全方位的准备,使自己先立于不败之地,同时还要等待对手松懈或者犯错误时再发起攻击,目标是确保万无一失。所谓的遍历性,是指某类事件在大样本和充足事件的检验下经历各态后,统计结果在时间和空间上是一致的。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 重阳投资合伙人舒泰峰在《财富善战者说》一书中,以孙子兵法的理论说明了价值投资何以立于不败之地。“买股票就是买公司”法则、安全边际法则、能力圈法则、理性对待“市场先生”法则等均体现了孙子兵法的“不可胜在己”“胜于易胜”和“先胜而战”的思想精髓。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 财富善战者,在投资布局之初已获得胜利,就如真正善战的人在战争开始前就已经获胜了,是谓“先胜后战”。以下就是舒泰峰所总结的孙子兵法与价值投资的十个相通之处,这十大主题以孙子、巴菲特、芒格的虚拟对话进行详解。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> <strong>1、以优胜劣:择人而任势</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 什么是好企业?就是能为股东创造长期利润,同时也能为社会创造价值的企业。一个好企业需要有好的管理层、好的商业模式,并且符合产业发展趋势。孙子说:“故善战者,求之于势,不责于人,故能择人任势。”“择人”相当于挑选好的管理层,“任势”相当于顺应产业发展趋势并选择其中好的商业模式,它们一起构成企业的竞争优势。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> <strong>2、以逆克顺:避其锐气,击其堕归</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 好企业不等于好标的,好企业加上好的投资价格才算是好标的。所以除了买好的,还要买得好,也就是买得便宜。但是怎么才能买得便宜?这就需要逆向思维,做到人弃我取。在别人不喜欢的时候买,或者在别人忽略的地方买,才能用合理的甚至比估值低的价格买到优秀的标的。《孙子兵法》有云:“避其锐气,击其惰归。”避开敌军出征时的旺盛斗志,等到敌人松懈返回时予以痛击,其中的原理与投资的原理相同。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> <strong>3、以慢制快:以虞待不虞者胜</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 好价格不会自动出现,就好像好的猎物总是躲在密林深处。它们都需要我们耐心等待,等到潮水退去,喧哗不再。巴菲特十分善于等待,他很欣赏棒球运动员泰德·威廉姆斯,因为威廉姆斯从来不会在真正的好球到来之前乱挥球棒。巴菲特为了等待一个好的标的,也总是不惜花费数年甚至数十年,芒格称之为“坐等投资法”。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 而《孙子兵法》则主张“善守者,守于九地之下”,最终实现“以虞待不虞者胜”,即有准备之师攻击无准备之敌,才能够获得最终的胜利。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> <strong>4、以少胜多:一战而定</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 奉行“坐等投资法”的巴菲特必定不会出手太多次。与许多人喜欢分散投资不同,他更喜欢马克·吐温的建议“把所有鸡蛋放在同一个篮子里,然后小心看好它”。当然,只做一次投资的确太少,他对普通投资者的建议是给自己准备一张只有20个打孔位的卡片,代表一生中能做的投资。一旦你在这张卡片上打满了20个孔,你就不能再进行任何投资了。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 相应地,《孙子兵法》也不主张多打仗,因为打仗消耗的人力、物力很多,会导致“数胜而亡”,总是打胜仗的国家反而可能灭亡。《孙子兵法》之道其实是慎战之道,讲究少打仗(最好不打仗),不战而屈人之兵是最高境界,实在要打也要追求“一战而定”。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> <strong>5、以勇胜怯:疾如风侵掠如火</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 等待不是目的而是手段,它只适用于机会没有来临之时。一旦机会到来,就要勇于扑上去。正如裘国根所说:“机会来时,要敢于重仓出击,踏上两只脚。”巴菲特的表述是:“当天上下金子的时候,应该用大桶去接,而不是用小小的指环。”金融危机发生之时,往往就是巴菲特横扫市场之时。越是观察巴菲特的投资操作,越会发现他就像一个老练的猎人,拥有超人的耐心和毅力,在猎物没有出现之前始终静静地等待,一旦猎物出现,就果断出击,一击而中。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 《孙子兵法》同样讲究要么不打,军队一旦行动,则要“动于九天之上”,其“疾如风”“侵掠如火”“动如雷震”。也就是说,真正善于攻击的部队就像从天而降的神兵,横扫千军,像风像火像雷霆。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> <strong>6、以稳胜险:以正合,以奇胜</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 凡事有限度,过犹不及。重拳出击不代表“ALL IN”(全部投入)或者大举放杠杆。因为杠杆是把双刃剑,既可以让你一夜暴富,也可以让你一夜归零。投资的世界中永远有不确定性,“黑天鹅”市场出没,所以还要记得留一手。巴菲特的账上永远“躺着”至少300亿美元现金和现金等价物,虽然它们收益很低,但是能让巴菲特睡得很安稳。一旦爆发金融危机,当其他公司都为生存而挣扎时,巴菲特还有充足的“子弹”。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 《孙子兵法》说:“凡战者,以正合,以奇胜。故善出其奇者,无穷如天地,不竭如江河。”</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> <strong>7、以变克僵:兵无常势、水无常形</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 巴菲特的投资方法慢的时候像千年神龟,可以静静等待数年乃至数十年,快的时候犹如闪电。芒格将这种方法总结为“条件变了我们也要变”。这种像水的智慧,《孙子兵法》说“兵无常势,水无常形”,水至柔却能克万物,正因为它的善于变化。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> <strong>8、以熟避生:知可以战与不可以战者胜</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 要做到前面7个环节,一个重要的前提是知彼知己。投资归根结底是两件事:一是认识客观的世界,二是认识主观的自己。巴菲特主张不熟不投,即首先要对自己有清晰的认识,避开陌生的东西,绝不能踏出能力圈半步。其次才是对标的进行判断,这就要求投资者一方面要不断习得各类知识和技能了解客观世界,另一方面要诚实面对自己,剖析自己的种种认知偏差,避免成为一个“不知道自己不知道”的傻瓜。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 《孙子兵法》说“知可以战与不可以战者胜”,即知道什么仗可以打,什么仗不可以打的人才能获胜。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> <strong>9、以强胜弱:先胜而求战</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 巴菲特说:“在投资方面,我们之所以做得非常成功,是因为我们全神贯注于寻找1英尺栏杆,而避开那些我们没有能力跨越的7英尺栏杆。”</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 《孙子兵法》则说“古之谓善战者,胜于易胜也”,人人喜欢以少胜多,以弱胜强的传奇故事,其实这些故事大错特错,以多胜少、以强胜弱才是作战的正道。真正善战的人在战争开始前就已经获胜了,是谓“先胜后战”。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> <strong>10、全胜思维:不战而屈人之兵</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 世上道路千万条,投资方法也不少,但是价值投资最接近投资之仁道,它要求用最小的代价买到好的企业,也要求爱惜被投资的企业,必要时要通过改善治理的方式帮助企业实现增长。它不是零和博弈,而是多赢之道。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 《孙子兵法》说:“兵者,国之大事,生死之地,存亡之道,不可不察也。”先胜是手段,全胜才是最终目标,这是因为打仗是国家大事,会牺牲人命,甚至关乎国家的存亡,所以打得赢也要算代价,正所谓“夫用兵之法,全国为上,破国次之;全军为上,破军次之”。用兵之道,使敌人全国降服是上策,用武力击破敌国是次等选择;使敌人全军降服是上策,击败敌军是次等选择。正是《孙子兵法》的终极价值——全胜思想。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb2ed00ac5de2097917e40947bc4a36a","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181968163","content_text":"沪指年前一度跌破2700点和小市值股票的流动性危机,让很多加杠杆的投资者体会到了投资中的最高法则是活下去。活下去一切都好说,投资只有建立在不败的法则之上,才能在“黑天鹅”来临之际保证活下去。 对于爆仓或出局的投资者,重阳投资创始人、首席投资官裘国根的观点令人警醒:在投资中,绝不做不可逆的事,如果一种策略不具有遍历性,那么意味着爆仓或出局的可能,投资就变成了危险的“俄罗斯轮盘赌”。 “先胜而战”就是一种遍历性法则。裘国根认为,中国传统经典《孙子兵法》的核心思想“先胜而战”与遍历性思维有异曲同工之妙,它不仅要求作战前做好全方位的准备,使自己先立于不败之地,同时还要等待对手松懈或者犯错误时再发起攻击,目标是确保万无一失。所谓的遍历性,是指某类事件在大样本和充足事件的检验下经历各态后,统计结果在时间和空间上是一致的。 重阳投资合伙人舒泰峰在《财富善战者说》一书中,以孙子兵法的理论说明了价值投资何以立于不败之地。“买股票就是买公司”法则、安全边际法则、能力圈法则、理性对待“市场先生”法则等均体现了孙子兵法的“不可胜在己”“胜于易胜”和“先胜而战”的思想精髓。 财富善战者,在投资布局之初已获得胜利,就如真正善战的人在战争开始前就已经获胜了,是谓“先胜后战”。以下就是舒泰峰所总结的孙子兵法与价值投资的十个相通之处,这十大主题以孙子、巴菲特、芒格的虚拟对话进行详解。 1、以优胜劣:择人而任势 什么是好企业?就是能为股东创造长期利润,同时也能为社会创造价值的企业。一个好企业需要有好的管理层、好的商业模式,并且符合产业发展趋势。孙子说:“故善战者,求之于势,不责于人,故能择人任势。”“择人”相当于挑选好的管理层,“任势”相当于顺应产业发展趋势并选择其中好的商业模式,它们一起构成企业的竞争优势。 2、以逆克顺:避其锐气,击其堕归 好企业不等于好标的,好企业加上好的投资价格才算是好标的。所以除了买好的,还要买得好,也就是买得便宜。但是怎么才能买得便宜?这就需要逆向思维,做到人弃我取。在别人不喜欢的时候买,或者在别人忽略的地方买,才能用合理的甚至比估值低的价格买到优秀的标的。《孙子兵法》有云:“避其锐气,击其惰归。”避开敌军出征时的旺盛斗志,等到敌人松懈返回时予以痛击,其中的原理与投资的原理相同。 3、以慢制快:以虞待不虞者胜 好价格不会自动出现,就好像好的猎物总是躲在密林深处。它们都需要我们耐心等待,等到潮水退去,喧哗不再。巴菲特十分善于等待,他很欣赏棒球运动员泰德·威廉姆斯,因为威廉姆斯从来不会在真正的好球到来之前乱挥球棒。巴菲特为了等待一个好的标的,也总是不惜花费数年甚至数十年,芒格称之为“坐等投资法”。 而《孙子兵法》则主张“善守者,守于九地之下”,最终实现“以虞待不虞者胜”,即有准备之师攻击无准备之敌,才能够获得最终的胜利。 4、以少胜多:一战而定 奉行“坐等投资法”的巴菲特必定不会出手太多次。与许多人喜欢分散投资不同,他更喜欢马克·吐温的建议“把所有鸡蛋放在同一个篮子里,然后小心看好它”。当然,只做一次投资的确太少,他对普通投资者的建议是给自己准备一张只有20个打孔位的卡片,代表一生中能做的投资。一旦你在这张卡片上打满了20个孔,你就不能再进行任何投资了。 相应地,《孙子兵法》也不主张多打仗,因为打仗消耗的人力、物力很多,会导致“数胜而亡”,总是打胜仗的国家反而可能灭亡。《孙子兵法》之道其实是慎战之道,讲究少打仗(最好不打仗),不战而屈人之兵是最高境界,实在要打也要追求“一战而定”。 5、以勇胜怯:疾如风侵掠如火 等待不是目的而是手段,它只适用于机会没有来临之时。一旦机会到来,就要勇于扑上去。正如裘国根所说:“机会来时,要敢于重仓出击,踏上两只脚。”巴菲特的表述是:“当天上下金子的时候,应该用大桶去接,而不是用小小的指环。”金融危机发生之时,往往就是巴菲特横扫市场之时。越是观察巴菲特的投资操作,越会发现他就像一个老练的猎人,拥有超人的耐心和毅力,在猎物没有出现之前始终静静地等待,一旦猎物出现,就果断出击,一击而中。 《孙子兵法》同样讲究要么不打,军队一旦行动,则要“动于九天之上”,其“疾如风”“侵掠如火”“动如雷震”。也就是说,真正善于攻击的部队就像从天而降的神兵,横扫千军,像风像火像雷霆。 6、以稳胜险:以正合,以奇胜 凡事有限度,过犹不及。重拳出击不代表“ALL IN”(全部投入)或者大举放杠杆。因为杠杆是把双刃剑,既可以让你一夜暴富,也可以让你一夜归零。投资的世界中永远有不确定性,“黑天鹅”市场出没,所以还要记得留一手。巴菲特的账上永远“躺着”至少300亿美元现金和现金等价物,虽然它们收益很低,但是能让巴菲特睡得很安稳。一旦爆发金融危机,当其他公司都为生存而挣扎时,巴菲特还有充足的“子弹”。 《孙子兵法》说:“凡战者,以正合,以奇胜。故善出其奇者,无穷如天地,不竭如江河。” 7、以变克僵:兵无常势、水无常形 巴菲特的投资方法慢的时候像千年神龟,可以静静等待数年乃至数十年,快的时候犹如闪电。芒格将这种方法总结为“条件变了我们也要变”。这种像水的智慧,《孙子兵法》说“兵无常势,水无常形”,水至柔却能克万物,正因为它的善于变化。 8、以熟避生:知可以战与不可以战者胜 要做到前面7个环节,一个重要的前提是知彼知己。投资归根结底是两件事:一是认识客观的世界,二是认识主观的自己。巴菲特主张不熟不投,即首先要对自己有清晰的认识,避开陌生的东西,绝不能踏出能力圈半步。其次才是对标的进行判断,这就要求投资者一方面要不断习得各类知识和技能了解客观世界,另一方面要诚实面对自己,剖析自己的种种认知偏差,避免成为一个“不知道自己不知道”的傻瓜。 《孙子兵法》说“知可以战与不可以战者胜”,即知道什么仗可以打,什么仗不可以打的人才能获胜。 9、以强胜弱:先胜而求战 巴菲特说:“在投资方面,我们之所以做得非常成功,是因为我们全神贯注于寻找1英尺栏杆,而避开那些我们没有能力跨越的7英尺栏杆。” 《孙子兵法》则说“古之谓善战者,胜于易胜也”,人人喜欢以少胜多,以弱胜强的传奇故事,其实这些故事大错特错,以多胜少、以强胜弱才是作战的正道。真正善战的人在战争开始前就已经获胜了,是谓“先胜后战”。 10、全胜思维:不战而屈人之兵 世上道路千万条,投资方法也不少,但是价值投资最接近投资之仁道,它要求用最小的代价买到好的企业,也要求爱惜被投资的企业,必要时要通过改善治理的方式帮助企业实现增长。它不是零和博弈,而是多赢之道。 《孙子兵法》说:“兵者,国之大事,生死之地,存亡之道,不可不察也。”先胜是手段,全胜才是最终目标,这是因为打仗是国家大事,会牺牲人命,甚至关乎国家的存亡,所以打得赢也要算代价,正所谓“夫用兵之法,全国为上,破国次之;全军为上,破军次之”。用兵之道,使敌人全国降服是上策,用武力击破敌国是次等选择;使敌人全军降服是上策,击败敌军是次等选择。正是《孙子兵法》的终极价值——全胜思想。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":789,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":371098960191496,"gmtCreate":1731614718997,"gmtModify":1731614721176,"author":{"id":"3545282499782202","authorId":"3545282499782202","name":"多多吃苹果","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/432a70f360f69c451f37da889cb769b3","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3545282499782202","authorIdStr":"3545282499782202"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a><v-v 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3545282499782202\">@多多吃苹果</a>:1️⃣两个人都不喜欢。觉得黑莉不错;2️⃣出于对确定性的偏好,希望哈里斯赢;3️⃣看势头,老川会赢[心碎][心碎][心碎]","listText":"Replying to <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3545282499782202\">@多多吃苹果</a>:并没有因为选情而改变股票持仓。1️⃣米国总统是有限权力,且国家系统的基础运行多为专业技术官僚;2️⃣宏观经济基本面没有改变。//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3545282499782202\">@多多吃苹果</a>:1️⃣两个人都不喜欢。觉得黑莉不错;2️⃣出于对确定性的偏好,希望哈里斯赢;3️⃣看势头,老川会赢[心碎][心碎][心碎]","text":"Replying to 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15:56","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"英伟达市值会超越苹果吗 ?|宅男财经","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2477015428","media":"中新经纬","summary":"【宅男财经|首席面对面】当地时间21日,英伟达股价高开高走,尾盘拉升涨超4%,报143.71美元/股,刷新历史新高,公司总市值逼近3.53万亿美元。该股年内涨幅已超190%。而苹果目前市值接近3.6万亿元,暂居第一。英伟达市值会超越苹果吗? 巨丰投资首席投资顾问张翠霞认为,英伟达占全球份额的60%,市占率高、渗透率高。此...","content":"<div>\n<p>【宅男财经|首席面对面】当地时间21日,英伟达股价高开高走,尾盘拉升涨超4%,报143.71美元/股,刷新历史新高,公司总市值逼近3.53万亿美元。该股年内涨幅已超190%。而苹果目前市值接近3.6万亿元,暂居第一。英伟达市值会超越苹果吗? 巨丰投资首席投资顾问张翠霞认为,英伟达占全球份额的60%,市占率高、渗透率高。此外,英伟达订单排期非常乐观,有一些芯片排期已经到了2030年,在提价背景下,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://new.qq.com/rain/a/20241022A05MXX00\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"tencent_tech","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" 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href=\"https://new.qq.com/rain/a/20241022A05MXX00\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://inews.gtimg.com/om_ls/OOERKmWAIjtuqysF01AXehDzOgpk3hFbmzbsha30LA6IcAA_294195/0","relate_stocks":{"BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4576":"AR","IE0003U64NQ7.SGD":"PIMCO BALANCED INCOME AND GROWTH \"M\" (SGDHDG) ACC","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","3NVD.UK":"LS 3X NVIDIA","IE0034235303.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US RESEARCH ENHANCED CORE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","L":"洛斯公司","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","HK0000320223.HKD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (HKD) ACC","BK4501":"段永平概念","IE00B7KXQ091.USD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc USD","IE00B4JS1V06.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (HKD) ACC","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","IE0004086264.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","AAPL":"苹果","IE00BLSP4452.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis 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ACC"},"source_url":"https://new.qq.com/rain/a/20241022A05MXX00","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2477015428","content_text":"【宅男财经|首席面对面】当地时间21日,英伟达股价高开高走,尾盘拉升涨超4%,报143.71美元/股,刷新历史新高,公司总市值逼近3.53万亿美元。该股年内涨幅已超190%。而苹果目前市值接近3.6万亿元,暂居第一。英伟达市值会超越苹果吗? 巨丰投资首席投资顾问张翠霞认为,英伟达占全球份额的60%,市占率高、渗透率高。此外,英伟达订单排期非常乐观,有一些芯片排期已经到了2030年,在提价背景下,会形成对业绩的支撑。而对于苹果来说,手机销量下滑,巴菲特抛售并且以手机为代表的消费电子行业竞争压力大。 张翠霞认为,在全球竞争不断深化和强化的背景下,英伟达早晚有可能会试探并突破苹果的市值。 (文中观点仅供参考,不构成投资建议,投资有风险,入市需谨慎。) (记者 董湘依 制作 郑铮 宅男财经出品)","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":400,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":362452022657248,"gmtCreate":1729518651587,"gmtModify":1729518653389,"author":{"id":"3545282499782202","authorId":"3545282499782202","name":"多多吃苹果","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/432a70f360f69c451f37da889cb769b3","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3545282499782202","authorIdStr":"3545282499782202"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> 会一直持有,到190,只是时间而已。AI浪潮一波未过,一波涌起……","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> 会一直持有,到190,只是时间而已。AI浪潮一波未过,一波涌起……","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 会一直持有,到190,只是时间而已。AI浪潮一波未过,一波涌起……","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/362452022657248","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":767,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":361651696398528,"gmtCreate":1729312506843,"gmtModify":1729312509146,"author":{"id":"3545282499782202","authorId":"3545282499782202","name":"多多吃苹果","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/432a70f360f69c451f37da889cb769b3","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3545282499782202","authorIdStr":"3545282499782202"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"当然是先赚钱,没钱怎么投资?","listText":"当然是先赚钱,没钱怎么投资?","text":"当然是先赚钱,没钱怎么投资?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/361651696398528","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":578,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}