The Dip Harvester的个人主页 - 老虎社区

The Dip Harvester

The Dip Harvester

重仓高胜率，轻仓高赔率。Slow Down to Go Fast.

IP属地：广东

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30粉丝

2主题

0勋章

The Dip Harvester

01:22

$英特尔(INTC)$ 熊来了？AI发展要停止了吗？如果没有，那就把握好时代主线，在万众恐慌中买入。

The Dip Harvester

01:17

$英特尔(INTC)$ 同样是2026年，强烈看多的理由是在六个月以前，现在又强烈看空？因特尔变了吗？并没有！反正我全仓买入了。

The Dip Harvester

10-23

又到了小仓“空手倒”的时间。

The Dip Harvester

10-22

等待⌛️

The Dip Harvester

10-22

This is one reason profits should be realized when the high-probability portion of the move is available, rather than assuming the original quality of the setup will persist indefinitely. 因此，当行情中高概率能够把握的那一部分已经出现时，就应当兑现利润，而不能假定交易形态最初的高质量会一直持续下去；这也是及时止盈的原因之一。

The Dip Harvester

10-21

[害羞]

The Dip Harvester

10-21

抓住机会

The Dip Harvester

10-21

约束才自由

The Dip Harvester

10-21

When not to

The Dip Harvester

08-18

清仓，等待⌛️

The Dip Harvester

08-08

无我。

The Dip Harvester

08-06

空手，倒！

The Dip Harvester

08-05

不预测，跟着市场走[比心]

The Dip Harvester

08-04

只做一只股。

The Dip Harvester

08-04

Lucky ball，Go!

The Dip Harvester

08-04

Good Boy！

The Dip Harvester

08-04

Good!

The Dip Harvester

08-04

加油👏

The Dip Harvester

08-04

一点点🤏来

The Dip Harvester

08-04

[得意]

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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😄","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72c49cfc64368a306caf8a99ec8108a8","width":"933","height":"1543"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/573528238294864","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1215,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":231211453284680,"gmtCreate":1697471358991,"gmtModify":1697471360365,"author":{"id":"3515240502729169","authorId":"3515240502729169","name":"The Dip Harvester","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a0403ad6ad180e8ba2b5f940588edbc","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3515240502729169","idStr":"3515240502729169"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"棒","listText":"棒","text":"棒","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/231211453284680","repostId":"1116963399","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1116963399","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1697468596,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1116963399?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-10-16 23:03","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"摒弃天赋迷失，揭秘绝密策略：一个关于交易员的实验，五年内赚了1.75亿美元！","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1116963399","media":"交易员说","summary":"海龟交易实验被视为巨大的成功。他们在5年内赚了超过1.75亿美元。丹尼斯说，如果一个交易员从10万美元开始，将其增长到20万美元，他们必须以“同样的关切、关心和纪律”使用额外的10万美元。丹尼斯认为那些对亏损反感的交易员是在错误的行业中。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>有时候我们看到别人取得巨大成就，会觉得他们天生就有某种特殊的天赋，对吧？但本文告诉我们，成功并不是天生的，而是可以通过努力和智慧复制的。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">想象一下，有个年轻的交易者，他在很年轻的时候就取得了惊人的成功。但他坚信，每个人都有机会复制他的成功，他甚至和身边的朋友打赌，要证明他是对的。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">他的成功秘诀是什么呢？原来，他深信在交易中，重要的是掌握一些规律和技巧，而不是天生的天赋。他通过努力学习，总结出了一套成功的交易策略，然后教给了身边的人。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">所以，不要觉得别人成功是因为他们有天赋，其实每个人都可以通过学习和努力，找到属于自己的成功之路。就像这位交易者一样，他的成功不是天生的，而是靠智慧和付出努力得来的。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">华尔街传奇人物理查德·丹尼斯（Richard Dennis）进行了一项智力实验，将23名新手交易员变成了一夜之间的百万富翁。以下是他的“海龟交易员”们遵循的六项交易规则和哲学。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">远离华尔街的繁华，丹尼斯在芝加哥的公开喊价交易池中长大。据《完整的海龟交易员：23名新手交易员如何一夜之间变成百万富翁》一书作者迈克尔·W·科维尔（Michael W. Covel）称，在20世纪70年代初，25岁的他已经赚了100万美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">丹尼斯快速赚钱的神奇能力赢得了他“池中王子”的绰号。1986年，他赚取了8000万美元，巩固了他与索罗斯（赚取1亿美元）和“垃圾债券之王”迈克尔·米尔肯（Michael Milken，同年也赚取8000万美元）齐名的传奇地位。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在芝加哥南区长大的丹尼斯并没有过着优渥的童年，也没有富裕的父母。事实上，他的父亲曾在芝加哥市工作了30年，有着一份铲煤的工作。这位自学成才的交易员不得不向家人借了1600美元来开始他的交易生涯，但最终在80年代初把它变成了2亿美元的财富。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">丹尼斯之所以独特，不仅仅在于他非凡的交易生涯，还在于他对于交易是可以被教授的信仰。但他的搭档威廉·艾克哈特（William Eckhardt）认为，成功的交易员具备与生俱来的天赋，天生就不同寻常。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在1983年和1984年，为了解决他俩长达十年的有关“交易天赋是天生与后天”的争论，丹尼斯在《华尔街日报》和其他金融新闻媒体上刊登广告，寻找那些不仅可以为他交易，还可以学习他专有的交易策略的实习生。对于渴望工作的求职者来说，这个机会似乎太好了，尤其是因为广告上说不一定需要交易经验。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e649577170af71af4c82ab645dade4e\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"907\" tg-height=\"600\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>从数千名申请者中挑选出海龟交易员</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">丹尼斯和艾克哈特的智力实验经常让人想起1983年的电影《交易之地》（Trading Places）。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">事实上，尽管他们的招募中没有街头赌徒，但许多“海龟交易员”——受到丹尼斯在新加坡参观的龟养殖场的启发——来自非传统背景。吉姆·梅尔尼克（Jim Melnick）曾是芝加哥商品交易所的保安，迈克·香农（Mike Shannon）曾是一位转行成商品经纪的演员，吉里·乔治·斯沃博达（Jiri George Svoboda ）曾是一名二十一点高手玩家，迈克·卡尔（ Mike Carr）曾是龙与地下城游戏的游戏设计师。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>“我们要像在新加坡养龟一样，培养交易员，”</strong>丹尼斯曾说。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">最终，他不仅赢得了赌局，还使他的学徒成为了百万富翁。例如，到1993年，他的一位曾是会计师的门徒杰瑞·帕克（ Jerry Parker）成为了《华尔街日报》百名最高薪酬的榜单上的第25名，当年赚取了3500万美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">海龟交易实验被视为巨大的成功。<strong> 他们在5年内赚了超过1.75亿美元。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>策略：交易规则和哲学</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在海龟交易员能够通过交易赚取百万美元之前，他们必须完成一项为期两周的培训计划，在此期间，他们学到了丹尼斯成功的秘密——趋势跟随。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">科维尔写道：<strong>“简而言之，这意味着他们需要一个‘趋势’来赚钱。”“趋势跟随者总是等待市场有所动作，然后跟随它。捕捉趋势的大部分，无论是上升还是下跌，以获取利润，这就是目标。”</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这是一种“让股神沃伦·巴菲特这样的投资者感到不安的交易策略，”他补充道。这种策略中不包括基本分析、低买高卖，或根据新闻和经济报告采取行动。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但交易员们必须随时回答五个问题：</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>（1）市场状况如何？</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>（2）市场波动性如何？</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>（3）正在交易的资产是什么？</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>（4）系统或交易方向是什么？</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>（5）交易员或客户的风险厌恶程度是多少？</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">一旦他们心中有了答案，他们必须遵循丹尼斯的规则，保持纪律。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>1. 如何妥善处理利润是赢家和输家之间的分水岭。优秀的交易员会根据他们当时拥有的资金来调整他们的交易。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">人的本性驱使交易员将基于原始资本赚取的钱看作是可以冒更大风险的幸运钱。丹尼斯说，如果一个交易员从10万美元开始，将其增长到20万美元，他们必须以“同样的关切、关心和纪律”使用额外的10万美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>2. 面对相同机会的交易员必须进行相同的交易，个人感情不能干扰。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">为寻求安全着陆，许多在大幅盈利后急于获利的交易员会感到焦虑。丹尼斯设计了这个规则，以防止他们不理智地行动或违反规则。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>3. 如果海龟交易员在市场上亏损，他们必须继续前进。接受和管理亏损是他们游戏的一部分。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">交易员倾向于固定在市场“伤害”他们的地方，希望他们在跌倒的地方赚回这笔钱。丹尼斯希望他的海龟交易员“持不可知论态度，接受任何趋势市场创造的机会”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>4. 海龟们被教导不要过于关注他们何时进入市场。他们被告知要担心何时退出。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">丹尼斯认为那些对亏损反感的交易员是在错误的行业中。相反，他认为管理亏损的头寸使他们能够等待大趋势，这就是为什么入市价格并不是至关重要的原因。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>5. 不要试图预测趋势的持续时间，无论是上升还是下跌都是不可能的。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">丹尼斯认为没有人有关于趋势持续时间的客观知识，交易员不应让个人或情感因素影响他们的交易。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>6. 测量波动性对于海龟至关重要，但大多数人当时和今天在交易中都忽视了它。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">了解市场波动性的情况，而不是股票或期货合同的价格，更为重要，因为它允许交易员根据他们的资本买入或卖空。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/393315155d7e64b7395ea958322d33a5\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>分析：解剖交易结构</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>海龟交易员的结构</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">海龟交易员的交易风格的结构基础是基于科学的方法或途径：</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>1. 定义市场 - 市场状况如何？现在金融市场正在发生什么？</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>2. 收集信息 - 进行研究以更好地了解金融市场的动态</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>3. 形成论文 - 市场上是否有交易机会？背后的道理是什么，我怎么能从这个机会中获利？</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>4. 回测并查看过去的历史 - 确定这个机会之前是否发生过，查看过去的价格历史是否可以预测未来的价格走势</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>5. 解释交易并制定行动计划 - 看看这个交易有什么风险，如果这个交易没有成功，看看奖励产生，制定行动计划</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>6. 分析交易 - 分析交易，看看它在当前市场条件下的表现</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>7. 进行交易</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">海龟交易员在做任何决定之前都会问自己这几个问题：</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>1. 市场状况如何？向上，向下，横向？</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>2. 市场波动 - 市场波动有多大？</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>3. 交易的商品是什么— 指数、商品、股票？</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>4. 交易什么系统或交易方向 - 是横向市场系统，是市场超买/超卖</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>5. 交易者的风险规避是什么？高风险？低风险？什么风险回报比？</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">海龟交易员遵循的交易规则：</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>1. 关注价格行为（Price Action） </strong>— 看价格的走势而不是一味关注新闻、电视和评论员的言语</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>2. 确定你的入场价、止损和离场（Entry Price，Stop Loss, and Exit Point) </strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>3. 使用平均真实范围（Average True Range）来计算波动率并使用它来改变你的的仓位（position size）。</strong> 在波动较小的市场中持有更大的仓位，并在市场波动性强时持有小仓位以减少你的风险。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>4. 在单笔交易中，止损点不超过你总资本的2%</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>海龟交易员的交易模式</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">海龟交易员的交易模式为趋势交易 （Trend Following），趋势交易是一种投资策略，这种策略系统目标是利用市场趋势的机理进行双方向的市场交易行为。海龟交易员们将会在突破时买入，并在价位击穿支撑时做空。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">我将会使用之前的美股选股中的LPLA作为例子，这是一只符合&#34;趋势交易&#34;的股票。当时候的价位突破横盘，形成一个趋势。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94e195e5ac4f9ea9e9c6c960159141d7\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"687\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">如果照着海龟交易员的方法，他们将会在趋势临近结束的时候卖出，突破上升趋势线也意味着大势已去。在这个$LPLA的例子中，将会获利61%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">最后介绍一些海龟交易员的交易金句：</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>1. “不要让你的情绪随着你的资金的涨跌而波动”</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>2. “不以结果来评判自己，而是以你的过程来评判自己”</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>3. “不管市场好坏时，知道你需要做些什么”</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>4. “每天都知道你的计划和你为突发事件的预备计划是什么”</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>5. “我能赢些什么，我能输什么？这两种情况发生的概率是多少？”</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>结语</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">海龟交易员的故事是当时轰动全美国的交易励志故事，像是丹尼斯所说的 ：<strong>“每个人都可以成为一个成功的交易者”</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">对我而言，交易就像丹·赞格（Dan Zanger）所说的<strong>：Sucess = Preparation + Opportunity</strong>，成功就是等于你的准备加上机遇。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">问题是你愿意为交易付出多少努力呢？</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1603977621793","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>摒弃天赋迷失，揭秘绝密策略：一个关于交易员的实验，五年内赚了1.75亿美元！</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ 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#494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n摒弃天赋迷失，揭秘绝密策略：一个关于交易员的实验，五年内赚了1.75亿美元！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-10-16 23:03 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/CE-1w1luSd6LPM3BE_3wVg><strong>交易员说</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>有时候我们看到别人取得巨大成就，会觉得他们天生就有某种特殊的天赋，对吧？但本文告诉我们，成功并不是天生的，而是可以通过努力和智慧复制的。想象一下，有个年轻的交易者，他在很年轻的时候就取得了惊人的成功。但他坚信，每个人都有机会复制他的成功，他甚至和身边的朋友打赌，要证明他是对的。他的成功秘诀是什么呢？原来，他深信在交易中，重要的是掌握一些规律和技巧，而不是天生的天赋。他通过努力学习，总结出了一套成功...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/CE-1w1luSd6LPM3BE_3wVg\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e68f18a297e419bae3cc0320b6d8ff4e","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/CE-1w1luSd6LPM3BE_3wVg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1116963399","content_text":"有时候我们看到别人取得巨大成就，会觉得他们天生就有某种特殊的天赋，对吧？但本文告诉我们，成功并不是天生的，而是可以通过努力和智慧复制的。想象一下，有个年轻的交易者，他在很年轻的时候就取得了惊人的成功。但他坚信，每个人都有机会复制他的成功，他甚至和身边的朋友打赌，要证明他是对的。他的成功秘诀是什么呢？原来，他深信在交易中，重要的是掌握一些规律和技巧，而不是天生的天赋。他通过努力学习，总结出了一套成功的交易策略，然后教给了身边的人。所以，不要觉得别人成功是因为他们有天赋，其实每个人都可以通过学习和努力，找到属于自己的成功之路。就像这位交易者一样，他的成功不是天生的，而是靠智慧和付出努力得来的。华尔街传奇人物理查德·丹尼斯（Richard Dennis）进行了一项智力实验，将23名新手交易员变成了一夜之间的百万富翁。以下是他的“海龟交易员”们遵循的六项交易规则和哲学。远离华尔街的繁华，丹尼斯在芝加哥的公开喊价交易池中长大。据《完整的海龟交易员：23名新手交易员如何一夜之间变成百万富翁》一书作者迈克尔·W·科维尔（Michael W. Covel）称，在20世纪70年代初，25岁的他已经赚了100万美元。丹尼斯快速赚钱的神奇能力赢得了他“池中王子”的绰号。1986年，他赚取了8000万美元，巩固了他与索罗斯（赚取1亿美元）和“垃圾债券之王”迈克尔·米尔肯（Michael Milken，同年也赚取8000万美元）齐名的传奇地位。在芝加哥南区长大的丹尼斯并没有过着优渥的童年，也没有富裕的父母。事实上，他的父亲曾在芝加哥市工作了30年，有着一份铲煤的工作。这位自学成才的交易员不得不向家人借了1600美元来开始他的交易生涯，但最终在80年代初把它变成了2亿美元的财富。丹尼斯之所以独特，不仅仅在于他非凡的交易生涯，还在于他对于交易是可以被教授的信仰。但他的搭档威廉·艾克哈特（William Eckhardt）认为，成功的交易员具备与生俱来的天赋，天生就不同寻常。在1983年和1984年，为了解决他俩长达十年的有关“交易天赋是天生与后天”的争论，丹尼斯在《华尔街日报》和其他金融新闻媒体上刊登广告，寻找那些不仅可以为他交易，还可以学习他专有的交易策略的实习生。对于渴望工作的求职者来说，这个机会似乎太好了，尤其是因为广告上说不一定需要交易经验。从数千名申请者中挑选出海龟交易员丹尼斯和艾克哈特的智力实验经常让人想起1983年的电影《交易之地》（Trading Places）。事实上，尽管他们的招募中没有街头赌徒，但许多“海龟交易员”——受到丹尼斯在新加坡参观的龟养殖场的启发——来自非传统背景。吉姆·梅尔尼克（Jim Melnick）曾是芝加哥商品交易所的保安，迈克·香农（Mike Shannon）曾是一位转行成商品经纪的演员，吉里·乔治·斯沃博达（Jiri George Svoboda ）曾是一名二十一点高手玩家，迈克·卡尔（ Mike Carr）曾是龙与地下城游戏的游戏设计师。“我们要像在新加坡养龟一样，培养交易员，”丹尼斯曾说。最终，他不仅赢得了赌局，还使他的学徒成为了百万富翁。例如，到1993年，他的一位曾是会计师的门徒杰瑞·帕克（ Jerry Parker）成为了《华尔街日报》百名最高薪酬的榜单上的第25名，当年赚取了3500万美元。海龟交易实验被视为巨大的成功。 他们在5年内赚了超过1.75亿美元。策略：交易规则和哲学在海龟交易员能够通过交易赚取百万美元之前，他们必须完成一项为期两周的培训计划，在此期间，他们学到了丹尼斯成功的秘密——趋势跟随。科维尔写道：“简而言之，这意味着他们需要一个‘趋势’来赚钱。”“趋势跟随者总是等待市场有所动作，然后跟随它。捕捉趋势的大部分，无论是上升还是下跌，以获取利润，这就是目标。”这是一种“让股神沃伦·巴菲特这样的投资者感到不安的交易策略，”他补充道。这种策略中不包括基本分析、低买高卖，或根据新闻和经济报告采取行动。但交易员们必须随时回答五个问题：（1）市场状况如何？（2）市场波动性如何？（3）正在交易的资产是什么？（4）系统或交易方向是什么？（5）交易员或客户的风险厌恶程度是多少？一旦他们心中有了答案，他们必须遵循丹尼斯的规则，保持纪律。1. 如何妥善处理利润是赢家和输家之间的分水岭。优秀的交易员会根据他们当时拥有的资金来调整他们的交易。人的本性驱使交易员将基于原始资本赚取的钱看作是可以冒更大风险的幸运钱。丹尼斯说，如果一个交易员从10万美元开始，将其增长到20万美元，他们必须以“同样的关切、关心和纪律”使用额外的10万美元。2. 面对相同机会的交易员必须进行相同的交易，个人感情不能干扰。为寻求安全着陆，许多在大幅盈利后急于获利的交易员会感到焦虑。丹尼斯设计了这个规则，以防止他们不理智地行动或违反规则。3. 如果海龟交易员在市场上亏损，他们必须继续前进。接受和管理亏损是他们游戏的一部分。交易员倾向于固定在市场“伤害”他们的地方，希望他们在跌倒的地方赚回这笔钱。丹尼斯希望他的海龟交易员“持不可知论态度，接受任何趋势市场创造的机会”。4. 海龟们被教导不要过于关注他们何时进入市场。他们被告知要担心何时退出。丹尼斯认为那些对亏损反感的交易员是在错误的行业中。相反，他认为管理亏损的头寸使他们能够等待大趋势，这就是为什么入市价格并不是至关重要的原因。5. 不要试图预测趋势的持续时间，无论是上升还是下跌都是不可能的。丹尼斯认为没有人有关于趋势持续时间的客观知识，交易员不应让个人或情感因素影响他们的交易。6. 测量波动性对于海龟至关重要，但大多数人当时和今天在交易中都忽视了它。了解市场波动性的情况，而不是股票或期货合同的价格，更为重要，因为它允许交易员根据他们的资本买入或卖空。分析：解剖交易结构海龟交易员的结构海龟交易员的交易风格的结构基础是基于科学的方法或途径：1. 定义市场 - 市场状况如何？现在金融市场正在发生什么？2. 收集信息 - 进行研究以更好地了解金融市场的动态3. 形成论文 - 市场上是否有交易机会？背后的道理是什么，我怎么能从这个机会中获利？4. 回测并查看过去的历史 - 确定这个机会之前是否发生过，查看过去的价格历史是否可以预测未来的价格走势5. 解释交易并制定行动计划 - 看看这个交易有什么风险，如果这个交易没有成功，看看奖励产生，制定行动计划6. 分析交易 - 分析交易，看看它在当前市场条件下的表现7. 进行交易海龟交易员在做任何决定之前都会问自己这几个问题：1. 市场状况如何？向上，向下，横向？2. 市场波动 - 市场波动有多大？3. 交易的商品是什么— 指数、商品、股票？4. 交易什么系统或交易方向 - 是横向市场系统，是市场超买/超卖5. 交易者的风险规避是什么？高风险？低风险？什么风险回报比？海龟交易员遵循的交易规则：1. 关注价格行为（Price Action） — 看价格的走势而不是一味关注新闻、电视和评论员的言语2. 确定你的入场价、止损和离场（Entry Price，Stop Loss, and Exit Point) 3. 使用平均真实范围（Average True Range）来计算波动率并使用它来改变你的的仓位（position size）。 在波动较小的市场中持有更大的仓位，并在市场波动性强时持有小仓位以减少你的风险。4. 在单笔交易中，止损点不超过你总资本的2%海龟交易员的交易模式海龟交易员的交易模式为趋势交易 （Trend Following），趋势交易是一种投资策略，这种策略系统目标是利用市场趋势的机理进行双方向的市场交易行为。海龟交易员们将会在突破时买入，并在价位击穿支撑时做空。我将会使用之前的美股选股中的LPLA作为例子，这是一只符合\"趋势交易\"的股票。当时候的价位突破横盘，形成一个趋势。如果照着海龟交易员的方法，他们将会在趋势临近结束的时候卖出，突破上升趋势线也意味着大势已去。在这个$LPLA的例子中，将会获利61%。最后介绍一些海龟交易员的交易金句：1. “不要让你的情绪随着你的资金的涨跌而波动”2. “不以结果来评判自己，而是以你的过程来评判自己”3. “不管市场好坏时，知道你需要做些什么”4. “每天都知道你的计划和你为突发事件的预备计划是什么”5. “我能赢些什么，我能输什么？这两种情况发生的概率是多少？”结语海龟交易员的故事是当时轰动全美国的交易励志故事，像是丹尼斯所说的 ：“每个人都可以成为一个成功的交易者”。对我而言，交易就像丹·赞格（Dan Zanger）所说的：Sucess = Preparation + Opportunity，成功就是等于你的准备加上机遇。问题是你愿意为交易付出多少努力呢？","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6077,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":620651952886160,"gmtCreate":1792551043506,"gmtModify":1792551047227,"author":{"id":"3515240502729169","authorId":"3515240502729169","name":"The Dip Harvester","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a0403ad6ad180e8ba2b5f940588edbc","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3515240502729169","idStr":"3515240502729169"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"约束才自由","listText":"约束才自由","text":"约束才自由","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/479a9371b70faadf298718c3e9be081b","width":"1672","height":"941"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/620651952886160","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":83,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":594345047220704,"gmtCreate":1786121224876,"gmtModify":1786121236995,"author":{"id":"3515240502729169","authorId":"3515240502729169","name":"The Dip Harvester","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a0403ad6ad180e8ba2b5f940588edbc","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3515240502729169","idStr":"3515240502729169"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"无我。","listText":"无我。","text":"无我。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0447c3060f484180bf67f2217d3d2c04","width":"933","height":"1483"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/594345047220704","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1059,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}