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認真搞錢
08-30 01:13
$英伟达(NVDA)$
$苹果(AAPL)$
$微软(MSFT)$
$美元/离岸人民币(USDCNH.FOREX)$
人民币涨,美元也跟着涨?现在的市场就真挺牛逼的,各种数据一修,继续骗,还继续信… 没事,该来还是会来的
認真搞錢
08-23
$美元/日元(USDJPY.FOREX)$
我就看看不说话
$苹果(AAPL)$
$英伟达(NVDA)$
$微软(MSFT)$
認真搞錢
08-16
$NVDA 20240823 115.0 PUT$
先开仓,再看看情况
認真搞錢
08-15
$英伟达(NVDA)$
$苹果(AAPL)$
$微软(MSFT)$
现在的美国,非常脆弱,经不起一次冲击,那就继续等待吧,等最后一根稻草,现在表面上是风平浪静,实则暗流涌动! 这次又给机会了,大家请要珍惜!!! 择机而动[鬼脸]
認真搞錢
08-10
$英伟达(NVDA)$
这周白干了,甚至有点懊恼,上周五买的苹果英伟达的价外 put,高达 10 倍的收益居然全吐回去了,40w 啊[喷血] 被拔网线的节奏打乱,但转过头一想,这周一差点熔断,过山车行情,到一晚上多空双杀 2 轮,多杀多,没有损失也算是比较好的结果了。 现在美股没有你想的那么坚挺,大方向没问题,等待。
認真搞錢
08-07
Replying to
@A股亏死我了
:接得越猛,后面越惨//
@A股亏死我了
:不就是让领导(华尔街)先走。散户被虚假的反弹诱惑进来
@認真搞錢:
$英伟达(NVDA)$
$苹果(AAPL)$
$微软(MSFT)$
只能说昨天的网线拔得太有效果了,开盘交易异常,网络又卡,账号浮盈 10 倍,收盘得 2 倍, 进而又夜盘直接休市,手段确实精湛,但无所谓,危机只是延后了一点,风暴而成,等待即可, 但就是我有一点很不好,就是头铁,依旧是本周五的 put,这次还归零吗?🎢
認真搞錢
08-07
$英伟达(NVDA)$
$苹果(AAPL)$
$微软(MSFT)$
只能说昨天的网线拔得太有效果了,开盘交易异常,网络又卡,账号浮盈 10 倍,收盘得 2 倍, 进而又夜盘直接休市,手段确实精湛,但无所谓,危机只是延后了一点,风暴而成,等待即可, 但就是我有一点很不好,就是头铁,依旧是本周五的 put,这次还归零吗?🎢
認真搞錢
08-06
清晰
全球股市“完美风暴”,风起何处,如何演绎?
認真搞錢
08-05
今晚会有所行动吗?
認真搞錢
08-05
开盘 600% 的收益,放心,稳着
$苹果(AAPL)$
$英伟达(NVDA)$
$微软(MSFT)$
認真搞錢
08-05
$标普500波动率指数(VIX)$
现在不存在什么超跌,更别想抄底,这那是什么 2000 年互联网危机呀,这分明就是 70 年代全面衰退好嘛
$英伟达(NVDA)$
$苹果(AAPL)$
$微软(MSFT)$
@爱发红包的虎妞
認真搞錢
08-05
$英伟达(NVDA)$
不要觉得 100 块的英伟达是底,还早着,早在 4 月那一波下跌就尝试去空他 750 的了,这轮美元贬值才开始,涉及资产的重新定价,不要太单纯了,,,
$苹果(AAPL)$
$三倍做空半导体ETF-Direxion Daily(SOXS)$
$美元/离岸人民币(USDCNH.FOREX)$
認真搞錢
08-02
$微软(MSFT)$
$苹果(AAPL)$
微软逃得掉吗?大势所趋,财报盘后暴跌-8%, 被 amd 救了一命,但该跌的都跌回来了,meta,arm,还有苹果,冲冲冲💪
認真搞錢
08-02
都还没有开始,你们哪来的自信抄底,人民币和日元继续暴涨
$英伟达(NVDA)$
$苹果(AAPL)$
認真搞錢
08-02
$亚马逊(AMZN)$
$苹果(AAPL)$
$英伟达(NVDA)$
清完了,留一部分下周的 put,还有等会的财报,睡了[贱笑]
認真搞錢
08-02
$NVDA 20240802 110.0 PUT$
今晚差不多了
認真搞錢
08-02
$NVDA 20240802 110.0 PUT$
国会山股神?大势在,美队来都没用,盘后苹果亚马逊财报让震荡来得猛烈一些
$苹果(AAPL)$
$亚马逊(AMZN)$
$英伟达(NVDA)$
認真搞錢
08-02
$英伟达(NVDA)$
昨晚爆亏-20,被多军狙杀,今天就多杀多了,玩吧,今天有一个茅台的波动?
@認真搞錢:
$英伟达(NVDA)$
不是,看看日元汇率,人民币汇率,一天一个茅台的波动,国会山股神?玩呢[捂脸]
認真搞錢
08-01
$英伟达(NVDA)$
不是,看看日元汇率,人民币汇率,一天一个茅台的波动,国会山股神?玩呢[捂脸]
認真搞錢
07-31
$英伟达(NVDA)$
这是给机会呀
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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20240823 115.0 PUT$ 先开仓,再看看情况","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0421953981ac218abd8baac4e334af68","width":"906","height":"1459"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/339063766884480","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":200,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":338402698989848,"gmtCreate":1723655090318,"gmtModify":1723655093545,"author":{"id":"3494199828152889","authorId":"3494199828152889","authorIdStr":"3494199828152889","name":"認真搞錢","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7d568b85f3b2d554507e310113c73aa","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3494199828152889"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">$微软(MSFT)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 现在的美国,非常脆弱,经不起一次冲击,那就继续等待吧,等最后一根稻草,现在表面上是风平浪静,实则暗流涌动! 这次又给机会了,大家请要珍惜!!! 择机而动[鬼脸] ","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">$微软(MSFT)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 现在的美国,非常脆弱,经不起一次冲击,那就继续等待吧,等最后一根稻草,现在表面上是风平浪静,实则暗流涌动! 这次又给机会了,大家请要珍惜!!! 择机而动[鬼脸] ","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ $苹果(AAPL)$ $微软(MSFT)$ 现在的美国,非常脆弱,经不起一次冲击,那就继续等待吧,等最后一根稻草,现在表面上是风平浪静,实则暗流涌动! 这次又给机会了,大家请要珍惜!!! 择机而动[鬼脸]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":9,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/338402698989848","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2988,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4167991048071032","authorId":"4167991048071032","authorIdStr":"4167991048071032","name":"Onmyoji7","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4167991048071032"},"content":"美股上涨尽显颓势,大A退守强势复苏!","text":"美股上涨尽显颓势,大A退守强势复苏!","html":"美股上涨尽显颓势,大A退守强势复苏!"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":336627653341568,"gmtCreate":1723223942366,"gmtModify":1723432658369,"author":{"id":"3494199828152889","authorId":"3494199828152889","authorIdStr":"3494199828152889","name":"認真搞錢","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7d568b85f3b2d554507e310113c73aa","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3494199828152889"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 这周白干了,甚至有点懊恼,上周五买的苹果英伟达的价外 put,高达 10 倍的收益居然全吐回去了,40w 啊[喷血] 被拔网线的节奏打乱,但转过头一想,这周一差点熔断,过山车行情,到一晚上多空双杀 2 轮,多杀多,没有损失也算是比较好的结果了。 现在美股没有你想的那么坚挺,大方向没问题,等待。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 这周白干了,甚至有点懊恼,上周五买的苹果英伟达的价外 put,高达 10 倍的收益居然全吐回去了,40w 啊[喷血] 被拔网线的节奏打乱,但转过头一想,这周一差点熔断,过山车行情,到一晚上多空双杀 2 轮,多杀多,没有损失也算是比较好的结果了。 现在美股没有你想的那么坚挺,大方向没问题,等待。","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 这周白干了,甚至有点懊恼,上周五买的苹果英伟达的价外 put,高达 10 倍的收益居然全吐回去了,40w 啊[喷血] 被拔网线的节奏打乱,但转过头一想,这周一差点熔断,过山车行情,到一晚上多空双杀 2 轮,多杀多,没有损失也算是比较好的结果了。 现在美股没有你想的那么坚挺,大方向没问题,等待。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/336627653341568","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5624,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":335739006980224,"gmtCreate":1723005379977,"gmtModify":1723005382766,"author":{"id":"3494199828152889","authorId":"3494199828152889","authorIdStr":"3494199828152889","name":"認真搞錢","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7d568b85f3b2d554507e310113c73aa","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3494199828152889"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Replying to <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3584172888094790\">@A股亏死我了</a>:接得越猛,后面越惨//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3584172888094790\">@A股亏死我了</a>:不就是让领导(华尔街)先走。散户被虚假的反弹诱惑进来","listText":"Replying to <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3584172888094790\">@A股亏死我了</a>:接得越猛,后面越惨//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3584172888094790\">@A股亏死我了</a>:不就是让领导(华尔街)先走。散户被虚假的反弹诱惑进来","text":"Replying to @A股亏死我了:接得越猛,后面越惨//@A股亏死我了:不就是让领导(华尔街)先走。散户被虚假的反弹诱惑进来","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/335739006980224","repostId":"335555944050816","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":335555944050816,"gmtCreate":1722960686878,"gmtModify":1723005602963,"author":{"id":"3494199828152889","authorId":"3494199828152889","authorIdStr":"3494199828152889","name":"認真搞錢","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7d568b85f3b2d554507e310113c73aa","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3494199828152889"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">$微软(MSFT)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 只能说昨天的网线拔得太有效果了,开盘交易异常,网络又卡,账号浮盈 10 倍,收盘得 2 倍, 进而又夜盘直接休市,手段确实精湛,但无所谓,危机只是延后了一点,风暴而成,等待即可, 但就是我有一点很不好,就是头铁,依旧是本周五的 put,这次还归零吗?🎢","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">$微软(MSFT)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 只能说昨天的网线拔得太有效果了,开盘交易异常,网络又卡,账号浮盈 10 倍,收盘得 2 倍, 进而又夜盘直接休市,手段确实精湛,但无所谓,危机只是延后了一点,风暴而成,等待即可, 但就是我有一点很不好,就是头铁,依旧是本周五的 put,这次还归零吗?🎢","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ $苹果(AAPL)$ $微软(MSFT)$ 只能说昨天的网线拔得太有效果了,开盘交易异常,网络又卡,账号浮盈 10 倍,收盘得 2 倍, 进而又夜盘直接休市,手段确实精湛,但无所谓,危机只是延后了一点,风暴而成,等待即可, 但就是我有一点很不好,就是头铁,依旧是本周五的 put,这次还归零吗?🎢","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c73308dfbb8f99fbeb84bf318b39be0a","width":"906","height":"1459"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/335555944050816","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":347,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":335555944050816,"gmtCreate":1722960686878,"gmtModify":1723005602963,"author":{"id":"3494199828152889","authorId":"3494199828152889","authorIdStr":"3494199828152889","name":"認真搞錢","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7d568b85f3b2d554507e310113c73aa","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3494199828152889"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">$微软(MSFT)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 只能说昨天的网线拔得太有效果了,开盘交易异常,网络又卡,账号浮盈 10 倍,收盘得 2 倍, 进而又夜盘直接休市,手段确实精湛,但无所谓,危机只是延后了一点,风暴而成,等待即可, 但就是我有一点很不好,就是头铁,依旧是本周五的 put,这次还归零吗?🎢","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">$微软(MSFT)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 只能说昨天的网线拔得太有效果了,开盘交易异常,网络又卡,账号浮盈 10 倍,收盘得 2 倍, 进而又夜盘直接休市,手段确实精湛,但无所谓,危机只是延后了一点,风暴而成,等待即可, 但就是我有一点很不好,就是头铁,依旧是本周五的 put,这次还归零吗?🎢","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ $苹果(AAPL)$ $微软(MSFT)$ 只能说昨天的网线拔得太有效果了,开盘交易异常,网络又卡,账号浮盈 10 倍,收盘得 2 倍, 进而又夜盘直接休市,手段确实精湛,但无所谓,危机只是延后了一点,风暴而成,等待即可, 但就是我有一点很不好,就是头铁,依旧是本周五的 put,这次还归零吗?🎢","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c73308dfbb8f99fbeb84bf318b39be0a","width":"906","height":"1459"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":10,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/335555944050816","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6484,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3584172888094790","authorId":"3584172888094790","authorIdStr":"3584172888094790","name":"A股亏死我了","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3584172888094790"},"content":"不就是让领导(华尔街)先走。散户被虚假的反弹诱惑进来","text":"不就是让领导(华尔街)先走。散户被虚假的反弹诱惑进来","html":"不就是让领导(华尔街)先走。散户被虚假的反弹诱惑进来"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":335411717771456,"gmtCreate":1722919493084,"gmtModify":1722919494381,"author":{"id":"3494199828152889","authorId":"3494199828152889","authorIdStr":"3494199828152889","name":"認真搞錢","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7d568b85f3b2d554507e310113c73aa","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3494199828152889"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"清晰","listText":"清晰","text":"清晰","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/335411717771456","repostId":"2457059497","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2457059497","pubTimestamp":1722915340,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2457059497?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-08-06 11:35","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"全球股市“完美风暴”,风起何处,如何演绎?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2457059497","media":"IPO金榜","summary":"引发这场全球性股灾的完美风暴,风起何处,又将如何演绎?按照最新一周公布的数据显示,美国失业率从今年以来的低点飙升了0.6%,失业率连续超预期数月后,触发了基于失业率预测衰退的“萨姆规则”。当然,单一失业率指标不足以完全诠释衰退的必然,不足以单方面促动完美风暴的形成。这也是市场的迷人之处。上述之外,造成这场完美风暴的其他因素,还包括:地缘风险联动。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>市场不会被流言击溃,但流言往往暗示着市场对某种预期发生概率的恐惧。</p><p>昨天是8月份的第一个周一,承接上周最后一个交易日美股的恐慌,<strong>全球市场一日齐喑:亚太市场的日股(日经)两度熔断,12.4%跌幅创历史最高;韩股(韩综)暴跌10%;欧洲市场三大股指均2%以上跌幅开盘;美股亦继续重挫,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>等权重虽低开高走,收盘跌幅亦在4个点之上。</strong></p><p>从指数上看,A股此番最是坚挺。但考虑到已经低迷数年,且实际个股体感很差,可以称得上天下跌势浩浩汤汤,无人可置身事外。</p><p>引发这场全球性股灾的完美风暴,风起何处,又将如何演绎?</p><h3 id=\"id_872778204\">01</h3><h3 id=\"id_397467545\">底层逻辑:衰退边缘</h3><p>最近几年,有一个论调极为流行:远离宏大叙事,关注个体命运。</p><p>这个论调后半句令人尊重,但前半句非常值得警惕——人类构成社会,便构成经济活动,便构成经济周期,没有人可以置身事外。整体而言,个体命运沉浮,莫不是经济周期的倒影。</p><p><strong>甚至可以说,对于经济周期这种宏大叙事的洞悉程度,以及它对行为的支配,决定着个体的命运。这是狭义上,选择大于努力这一现象的内涵。</strong></p><p><strong>当时当下,最重大的宏大叙事便是:美国市场这一全球性大衰退最后一块骨牌的倒下。</strong></p><p>毋论人们多么笃定星条旗永不落,一场衰退也无可避免。这就像太阳升起与落下一样,是天道,是自然规律。唯有衰退才会有劣币出清,才会有一代人落幕一代人崛起,才有更高的效能集结,触发产业革命的燃点,然后是新一轮繁荣。</p><p><strong>毋论政策如何缝缝补补,该发生的注定发生。</strong></p><p><strong>衰退的发生,将对应美股的阶段性见顶,随之而来的,也是预期内的降息等货币活动。</strong></p><p>当前阶段,对于衰退的预期,已经进入实质性阶段,即“萨姆规则”已经接近被触发。</p><p>所谓萨姆规则,是用于预测经济衰退的开始的指标,由前美联储经济学家克劳迪娅·萨姆(Claudia Sahm)在2019年提出。萨姆规则指出,当国家失业率的三个月移动平均值相对于前12个月的最低点上升0.5个百分点或更多时,经济很可能已经进入衰退。</p><p>该规则旨在为经济衰退提供早期预警信号,可能比传统指标更快。1970年代以来,该规则适用于每次经济衰退的开始。</p><p>按照最新一周公布的数据显示,美国失业率从今年以来的低点飙升了0.6%,失业率连续超预期数月后,触发了基于失业率预测衰退的“萨姆规则”。</p><p><strong>当然,单一失业率指标不足以完全诠释衰退的必然,不足以单方面促动完美风暴的形成。特别是,有大量<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FISI\">金融机构</a>,当前仍以各种角度理由反驳衰退的发生。</strong></p><p>但这些声音是苍白的,因为<strong>市场已经开始投票。</strong></p><h3 id=\"id_1749884384\">02</h3><h3 id=\"id_567000851\">导火索:渡边夫人</h3><p>金融市场内的诸多现象,机理往往混沌复杂,以至于不可被完全说清。</p><p>因此,概率统御这一市场。而概率的迷人之处还在于,它会以利益分配形式,分出每一轮胜负。这也是市场的迷人之处。</p><p>因此概率的大白天下,会以利益分配范式变化为标志物。比如,除了萨姆规则,美国衰退的另一个重要标志物之一,就是渡边夫人。</p><p><strong>本质上,美国经济与日本经济高度绑定,两个市场间有高度的便利融通性,这便为大量以“渡边夫人”为代号的寻求增殖的杠杠型日元,提供了充裕的市场套利机遇与空间:强美元,流入;弱美元,流出。</strong></p><p>整个过程之中,渡边夫人不再是渡边夫人,而是一对唇齿相依的资产负债表。</p><p>随着对于“弱美元”(降息)预期的阈值的触发,出于对资产负债表的保护,日元率先升息,引导渡边夫人套利再平衡,一个客观结果便是显著抬升了日股杠杠资金成本,固有的双向套利局面的平衡随之打破,两权相害取其轻,需要暂时舍弃一端,于是被动引发日股的强烈波动。</p><p>这种在所难免的局面,则成为美国衰退可能的另一个事实注脚。</p><p><strong>至于这一股市波动,会在何处形成新的平衡阈值,理论上取决于杠杆资金在双边利率范式转变波动过程中的耐受度。以及,作为一对唇齿相依的资产负债表,二者之间会在何处达成默契。</strong></p><p>无论如何,渡边夫人的应激动作,基本预示着衰退骨牌的倒下,亦即全球资本市场动荡的无可避免。</p><h3 id=\"id_541578890\">03</h3><h3 id=\"id_1278911258\">助燃剂:巴菲特卖出苹果</h3><p>如果这个市场有一位先知,那么非巴菲特莫属。</p><p><strong>最新持仓记录显示,巴菲特已经卖出一半的苹果仓位,而且第二大仓位的美国银行这一压舱石也在被减持。</strong></p><p><strong>态度意味一切。股神已经毫不掩饰。</strong></p><p>要知道,本轮日经走牛,很大程度上也是受益于巴菲特对于日本四大商社的加持,它对于日本市场、美国市场,甚至这两个国家的机理的理解程度,无人出乎其右。</p><p>每逢市场重大变故,位于美国中部的奥马哈,总有私人飞机排队降落,好似求名医问诊。但不知最近,那里的飞行记录如何。</p><p>苹果的故事,代表着一个时代。这个时代不落幕,新人如何上位?<strong>从逻辑上,苹果渐成一个悖论:它如果能代表通向新一康波的技术创新,这个世界仍将为旧时代统御;如果不能,才有可能是新时代的启幕——但前提是,它的不能,便是这个时代衰退本身。</strong></p><p>不要轻易假设AI手机就是未来30年的主宰,巴菲特肯定不会这么做。</p><p>众所周知,巴菲特信奉“买股票就是买公司”。因此当巴菲特止盈苹果时,市场务必清醒,至少那一刻,他已经不再看好苹果。</p><p>这一时刻,段永平很是苦恼。他评论说,他不知道如果卖了苹果,还有谁<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300785\">值得买</a>。</p><p>个中隐喻,一时分明:即使还无法看多未来,但已经到了看空过去的时刻。</p><h3 id=\"id_594411769\">04</h3><h3 id=\"id_2234862111\">鼓风机:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>与英伟达</h3><p>英特尔选择了自爆,它在AI面前落伍了:当计算从串行,转向并行,英特尔并没有完成转身,业绩完全放空,以及大幅裁员,早是明牌。</p><p>说是经济周期,倒也不过是:江山代有才人出,各领风骚数十年。</p><p><strong>不是英特尔陨落,反倒会让人意外。很大程度上,它是一个周期尾声的最显著的标志物。</strong></p><p>但遗憾的是,与之对应的,顺势崛起的新的芯片之王英伟达,尽管已经一度跻身全球第股王,却仍未完成周期加冕——其一己之力,还无法完全推开AI指数级增量经济周期的大门。</p><p>关于英伟达,这里不做展开,仅表明观点:</p><p><strong>当前AI没有产生一个超级应用场景,使得指数型增长的算力资源无法转换为指数型增长的经济效益,故而产业正在泡沫化;</strong></p><p><strong>这客观导致,市场对于AI芯片的需求,在经历过超级爆发期后,正进入一个平台期;</strong></p><p>推迟blackwell的本质原因,在于AI芯片已经接近“不经济性”区间。</p><p>实际上,毋论黄教主如何公开宣扬“AI主权”,但凡没有超级场景出现,通向AI新周期的滞阻便会显形。</p><p>特别是,在AI板块上,在英伟达上,已经积结了天量获利盘,但凡阻滞出现,总有大批信念匮乏者的交易行为,带来股价的剧烈波动。</p><p><strong>一直以来,英伟达等AI新势力,都是众望所归的美国经济避免衰退的秘钥。但正所谓,天地不仁以万物为刍狗,纵使天纵奇才,亦无法突破天道常识。</strong></p><p><strong>当市场逐渐清醒认识到这一点,衰退的自我强化,便迅速滚动起来。</strong></p><p>上述之外,造成这场完美风暴的其他因素,还包括:地缘风险联动。</p><p>没有增长,这个世界就没有优雅可言。近期中东地区地缘风险陡增,本质仍是经济要素驱使,二者之间逻辑剪不断理还乱。</p><p>是为结语,最后要说的是,在见证历史过程中,如果不具备投机天赋与信息判断能力,躲在远处观望,可能是更好的选择:同样是概率游戏,守护财富,比博取财富的胜率,要大得多。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1722915198769","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n全球股市“完美风暴”,风起何处,如何演绎?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-08-06 11:35 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/IAJE4rf2oZJIR0PhTgOsPw><strong>IPO金榜</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>市场不会被流言击溃,但流言往往暗示着市场对某种预期发生概率的恐惧。昨天是8月份的第一个周一,承接上周最后一个交易日美股的恐慌,全球市场一日齐喑:亚太市场的日股(日经)两度熔断,12.4%跌幅创历史最高;韩股(韩综)暴跌10%;欧洲市场三大股指均2%以上跌幅开盘;美股亦继续重挫,英伟达、苹果等权重虽低开高走,收盘跌幅亦在4个点之上。从指数上看,A股此番最是坚挺。但考虑到已经低迷数年,且实际个股体感很...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/IAJE4rf2oZJIR0PhTgOsPw\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7da52addfd52fb216bcf87283f43750","relate_stocks":{"BK4571":"数字音乐概念","IE00B775SV38.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US MULTICAP OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BLSP4239.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis USD Plus","IE0003U64NQ7.SGD":"PIMCO BALANCED INCOME AND GROWTH \"M\" (SGDHDG) ACC","IE00BFSS7M15.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD-H","IE00B3S45H60.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Multicap Opportunities A Acc 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Sahm)在2019年提出。萨姆规则指出,当国家失业率的三个月移动平均值相对于前12个月的最低点上升0.5个百分点或更多时,经济很可能已经进入衰退。该规则旨在为经济衰退提供早期预警信号,可能比传统指标更快。1970年代以来,该规则适用于每次经济衰退的开始。按照最新一周公布的数据显示,美国失业率从今年以来的低点飙升了0.6%,失业率连续超预期数月后,触发了基于失业率预测衰退的“萨姆规则”。当然,单一失业率指标不足以完全诠释衰退的必然,不足以单方面促动完美风暴的形成。特别是,有大量金融机构,当前仍以各种角度理由反驳衰退的发生。但这些声音是苍白的,因为市场已经开始投票。02导火索:渡边夫人金融市场内的诸多现象,机理往往混沌复杂,以至于不可被完全说清。因此,概率统御这一市场。而概率的迷人之处还在于,它会以利益分配形式,分出每一轮胜负。这也是市场的迷人之处。因此概率的大白天下,会以利益分配范式变化为标志物。比如,除了萨姆规则,美国衰退的另一个重要标志物之一,就是渡边夫人。本质上,美国经济与日本经济高度绑定,两个市场间有高度的便利融通性,这便为大量以“渡边夫人”为代号的寻求增殖的杠杠型日元,提供了充裕的市场套利机遇与空间:强美元,流入;弱美元,流出。整个过程之中,渡边夫人不再是渡边夫人,而是一对唇齿相依的资产负债表。随着对于“弱美元”(降息)预期的阈值的触发,出于对资产负债表的保护,日元率先升息,引导渡边夫人套利再平衡,一个客观结果便是显著抬升了日股杠杠资金成本,固有的双向套利局面的平衡随之打破,两权相害取其轻,需要暂时舍弃一端,于是被动引发日股的强烈波动。这种在所难免的局面,则成为美国衰退可能的另一个事实注脚。至于这一股市波动,会在何处形成新的平衡阈值,理论上取决于杠杆资金在双边利率范式转变波动过程中的耐受度。以及,作为一对唇齿相依的资产负债表,二者之间会在何处达成默契。无论如何,渡边夫人的应激动作,基本预示着衰退骨牌的倒下,亦即全球资本市场动荡的无可避免。03助燃剂:巴菲特卖出苹果如果这个市场有一位先知,那么非巴菲特莫属。最新持仓记录显示,巴菲特已经卖出一半的苹果仓位,而且第二大仓位的美国银行这一压舱石也在被减持。态度意味一切。股神已经毫不掩饰。要知道,本轮日经走牛,很大程度上也是受益于巴菲特对于日本四大商社的加持,它对于日本市场、美国市场,甚至这两个国家的机理的理解程度,无人出乎其右。每逢市场重大变故,位于美国中部的奥马哈,总有私人飞机排队降落,好似求名医问诊。但不知最近,那里的飞行记录如何。苹果的故事,代表着一个时代。这个时代不落幕,新人如何上位?从逻辑上,苹果渐成一个悖论:它如果能代表通向新一康波的技术创新,这个世界仍将为旧时代统御;如果不能,才有可能是新时代的启幕——但前提是,它的不能,便是这个时代衰退本身。不要轻易假设AI手机就是未来30年的主宰,巴菲特肯定不会这么做。众所周知,巴菲特信奉“买股票就是买公司”。因此当巴菲特止盈苹果时,市场务必清醒,至少那一刻,他已经不再看好苹果。这一时刻,段永平很是苦恼。他评论说,他不知道如果卖了苹果,还有谁值得买。个中隐喻,一时分明:即使还无法看多未来,但已经到了看空过去的时刻。04鼓风机:英特尔与英伟达英特尔选择了自爆,它在AI面前落伍了:当计算从串行,转向并行,英特尔并没有完成转身,业绩完全放空,以及大幅裁员,早是明牌。说是经济周期,倒也不过是:江山代有才人出,各领风骚数十年。不是英特尔陨落,反倒会让人意外。很大程度上,它是一个周期尾声的最显著的标志物。但遗憾的是,与之对应的,顺势崛起的新的芯片之王英伟达,尽管已经一度跻身全球第股王,却仍未完成周期加冕——其一己之力,还无法完全推开AI指数级增量经济周期的大门。关于英伟达,这里不做展开,仅表明观点:当前AI没有产生一个超级应用场景,使得指数型增长的算力资源无法转换为指数型增长的经济效益,故而产业正在泡沫化;这客观导致,市场对于AI芯片的需求,在经历过超级爆发期后,正进入一个平台期;推迟blackwell的本质原因,在于AI芯片已经接近“不经济性”区间。实际上,毋论黄教主如何公开宣扬“AI主权”,但凡没有超级场景出现,通向AI新周期的滞阻便会显形。特别是,在AI板块上,在英伟达上,已经积结了天量获利盘,但凡阻滞出现,总有大批信念匮乏者的交易行为,带来股价的剧烈波动。一直以来,英伟达等AI新势力,都是众望所归的美国经济避免衰退的秘钥。但正所谓,天地不仁以万物为刍狗,纵使天纵奇才,亦无法突破天道常识。当市场逐渐清醒认识到这一点,衰退的自我强化,便迅速滚动起来。上述之外,造成这场完美风暴的其他因素,还包括:地缘风险联动。没有增长,这个世界就没有优雅可言。近期中东地区地缘风险陡增,本质仍是经济要素驱使,二者之间逻辑剪不断理还乱。是为结语,最后要说的是,在见证历史过程中,如果不具备投机天赋与信息判断能力,躲在远处观望,可能是更好的选择:同样是概率游戏,守护财富,比博取财富的胜率,要大得多。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":288,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":335207065067800,"gmtCreate":1722869809104,"gmtModify":1722869811728,"author":{"id":"3494199828152889","authorId":"3494199828152889","authorIdStr":"3494199828152889","name":"認真搞錢","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7d568b85f3b2d554507e310113c73aa","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3494199828152889"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"今晚会有所行动吗?","listText":"今晚会有所行动吗?","text":"今晚会有所行动吗?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":11,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/335207065067800","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":921,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3494199828152889","authorId":"3494199828152889","authorIdStr":"3494199828152889","name":"認真搞錢","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7d568b85f3b2d554507e310113c73aa","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3494199828152889"},"content":"今晚先睡了,别被波动乱了心 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