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59743654
2022-09-05
存款利率下降才是高概率事件
不用再担心资金面,9月会降准吗?
59743654
2022-08-17
intel还是拉不下面子
台积电三纳米芯片:七大客户排队,苹果抢头彩
59743654
2022-07-01
$台积电(TSM)$
市场经常犯错。。半导体fab比油井更重要。。
59743654
2022-06-15
降低51没意义?
辉瑞(PFE.US)新冠口服药对轻症无效 暂停标准风险患者试验
59743654
2022-04-14
台积电也算躺吗?
台积电营收创纪录,但躺着赚钱的日子不多了?
59743654
2022-02-25
$Vir Biotechnology, Inc.(VIR)$
一个季度3个多亿利润,市值只有30多亿。。就算药物只能卖半年好了。。。怎么也有六个多亿利润。管线的其他药物就不值钱吗?
59743654
2022-02-09
$Vir Biotechnology, Inc.(VIR)$
重要的事说三遍。买买买
59743654
2022-02-09
$Vir Biotechnology, Inc.(VIR)$
严重低估,销售至少20亿。。
59743654
2022-02-08
$辉瑞(PFE)$
相信辉瑞的现金流,不是大收购,就是大回购。
59743654
2022-02-08
$辉瑞(PFE)$
辉瑞的财报值得赌。
59743654
2022-01-24
$Vir Biotechnology, Inc.(VIR)$
全年销售至少12亿。药企毛利历来是99。市值只有四十亿。。一年就能赚回市值1/4。这价格也是醉了
59743654
2022-01-24
$辉瑞(PFE)$
严重低估。。无论疫情是否结束。药物销量只会狂飙
59743654
2022-01-14
再牛没你牛,人家世界第一的代工厂,无论技术,市场预测都不如你,智商都不如你。**一样投资越来越大。
周期拐点将至,台积电还能牛多久?
59743654
2021-11-05
$Regeneron Pharmaceuticals(REGN)$
口服药物效果差作为补充没什么问题。作为主力不可能
59743654
2021-10-14
最简单的方法,对于你追我赶的两个寡头。。两头下注。。根本没其他人来分利润。
台积电3nm、2nm工艺放缓 Intel追上来了:2025年决战
59743654
2021-10-01
$Moderna, Inc.(MRNA)$
典型的做了好事i挨刀。。这种公司才是真正的技术公司。
59743654
2021-10-01
$Vir Biotechnology, Inc.(VIR)$
15% 除非市场有不知道的消息。否则仅仅是疫情受控制就这么跌至少也是不理性的。新冠药物的需求长期存在的
59743654
2021-09-30
$Regeneron Pharmaceuticals(REGN)$
一直认为市场严重低估再生元和vir
59743654
2021-09-28
$Regeneron Pharmaceuticals(REGN)$
市场开始认为疫情就要结束了
59743654
2021-09-23
$Vir Biotechnology, Inc.(VIR)$
就问一个问题,药物出问题了吗?市场前景出问题了吗?
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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","listText":"存款利率下降才是高概率事件","text":"存款利率下降才是高概率事件","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/669855612","repostId":"1189807388","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1189807388","pubTimestamp":1662338796,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1189807388?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-09-05 08:46","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"不用再担心资金面,9月会降准吗?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1189807388","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"9月降准可以期待但不是基准预期,如果落地将是明确利好。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>9月降准可以期待但不是基准预期,如果落地将是明确利好。</p><p>本周疫情的反复使得经济预期再度弱化,叠加跨月前后资金利率并未继续走高,市场对资金面的担忧减弱,甚至开始期待9月可能的降准,国内利率再度走低。</p><p>逆回购与MLF分别是银行获取短期和中期基础货币的边际成本,因此政策利率对市场定价意义重大。但当前资金利率已经大幅低于政策利率,如果央行仍通过MLF和逆回购来补充缺口,这在理论上将会推动资金利率逐步向政策利率回归。<b>但央行如果通过降准置换MLF释放低成本资金,这无疑将有利于资金面的宽松维持更长。</b></p><p>市场对降准预期的核心还是由于9月后MLF到期规模的扩大,猜测央行可通过降准置换MLF降低银行的融资成本,同时对冲近期银行净融出的回落。但是降准置换MLF为银行节约的成本有限,央行若希望引导LPR下降不如引导存款利率上限再降。央行对于短期资金面的波动主要仍然是通过逆回购与MLF进行对冲,降准更多是为了补充信贷扩张带来的超储消耗。<b>考虑今年仅4月降准释放5300亿长期流动性,央行利润上缴相当于降准0.5%释放10000亿,信贷扩张消耗的超储仍有近4000亿有待补充,因此年内仍有较大概率实施降准</b>,但其是否会在9月落地仍然存在不确定性,四季度央行通过降准再度引导LPR下降的可能也是存在的。<b>对于9月降准市场可以期待,但似乎还不能作为基准预期。</b></p><p>在当前时点,国内疫情仍在演进的过程中,重要会议前控制疫情扩散仍将是国内政策的重要目标,因此可能仍将对经济活动的恢复带来约束。更重要的是,地产市场信用收缩的局面仍未改变,考虑到房地产对于我国经济的重要性,稳信用的目标实现仍然需要央行的继续发力,这也意味着流动性环境很难出现趋势性的收紧。在当前的利差水平上,债券仍然具备较高的安全边际。</p><p>但随着旺季来临,经济的方向可能仍然是在恢复,尽管存在疫情压制,但除非后续基本面受恢复的方向再度发生变化,否则其对利率水平也难以带来进一步的催化。另一方面,资金利率短期仍然偏低,但考虑中枢已较8月上旬有所抬升,未来波动的幅度仍然存在不确定性,这也对利差水平的进一步压缩带来了阻力。</p><p><b>因此,在当前时点,尽管大方向上依然可以维持乐观,但收益率进一步回落仍然需要催化剂,短期市场的波动可能加大。</b>在这样的背景下,投资者可以继续将久期维持在中性偏高的水平,但不宜过度激进,维持投资组合的高流动性,根据市场的变化及时调整,等待催化剂的逐步显现。</p><p>本周国内利率再度回落。基本面方面,8月中采制造业PMI略有回升,需求端新订单及新出口订单指数均出现了边际改善,但整体仍位于荣枯线下方,生产指数受高温限电等因素影响也与上月持平,整体供需双弱的格局并未出现根本性的改观。而国内疫情仍在发展的过程中,深圳、成都等重点城市也相继进入了部分静默状态,尽管8月末票据利率出现了明显回升,但疫情的反复仍然使市场对于经济的预期再度转弱。而在资金面,跨月前财政支出的推动下,使得资金利率并未出现进一步走高。尽管跨月当日资金利率有所抬升,跨月结束后也没有再回到隔夜加权1%的水平,但在基本面预期的弱化之下,市场对于资金面转向的担忧反而有所减弱,并在博弈9月潜在的降准可能。在这些因素的影响下,本周国内利率再度转为下行,10年期国债活跃券220010下行约3BP至2.63%,且短端利率的下行幅度更大,期限利差再度走阔。</p><p>一、<b>疫情冲击下市场对资金面担忧减弱 开始憧憬9月降准</b></p><p>我们在此前的报告中一直强调,由于目前央行放弃了“引导市场利率围绕政策利率波动”的表述,同时又将7月以来逆回购操作规模的下降归因为市场需求的下降,这意味着当前不论是数量还是价格型的政策工具都无法反映央行对资金面的态度,这使得市场对于资金面的预期产生了混乱。在央行缺乏对资金面的预期引导之下,资金面的事实比预期更加重要。</p><p>尽管8月中下旬以来,银行净融出规模下降,使得隔夜利率在外生冲击下的波动加大,似乎难以回到8月上旬1%左右的水平,这在一定程度上限制了利率下行的空间。但如果单纯从期限利差的角度看,不论是短端利率与资金利率的利差,还是长端利率与短端利率的利差,当前都仍在偏高的位置。换而言之,市场对于资金利率的波动已有一定的定价,当前资金利率的上行程度难以对市场带来趋势性的冲击,更多仍是情绪层面的扰动。在这样的背景下,疫情反复带来的基本面预期弱化,又使得市场对资金面的担忧减弱,甚至开始期待9月可能的降准,这也是收益率近期再度下行的核心因素。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/616c124746149ae46b9910823a9fa6fe\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>二、<b>9月降准可以期待但不是基准预期 如果落地将是明确利好</b></p><p>市场认为央行可能降准的核心因素,主要还是9月后MLF到期规模的扩大,央行可以通过降准置换MLF降低银行的融资成本,同时也认为如果降准落地,也可以对冲近期银行净融出的回落。</p><p>但事实上,MLF到期量大并不能成为央行一定会降准的理由,例如去年7月的降准后,央行在MLF到期量偏大的背景下一直也是等额续作。如果央行与4月一样降准25BP,考虑MLF利率与法准利率的利差,其为商业银行节约的成本仅在50亿左右。如果央行希望通过降低金融机构负债成本,进而引导LPR的下降,引导存款利率上限下降无疑是更好的选择,节约成本不是央行降准的主要目的。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0126250a3b320d48ea6624f58fed2bf0\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>根据央行此前短中长期的流动性框架,短期资金面的波动主要仍然是通过逆回购与MLF进行对冲,而降准则是根据货币政策调控需要和存款增长带来法定准备金需求增加的速度,适时适度调整。过去几年,央行降准的规模与信贷扩张所消耗的超储也是大致匹配的。我们估计,今年信贷扩张所消耗的超储规模大约将达到1.9万亿,而今年央行仅在4月降准一次,释放了5300亿长期流动性,这样的规模是相对偏低的。另一方面,今年央行利润上缴的规模明显扩大,根据二季度货币政策执行报告的表述,“截至7月底已上缴1万亿元,相当于全面降准近0.5个百分点的政策力度”。但即便考虑这部分因素,长期流动性的释放规模相对于信贷扩张而言仍存4000亿左右的缺口,年内仍有较大的可能再度降准25BP。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7354a87f38942c3acc7b106666377a1e\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"673\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>但如果节约成本并不是降准主要目的,加上8月信贷收支分析会后信贷投放可能也有所增加,从历史上看,似乎也无法找到在重要会议前降准落地的规律,因此降准是否会在9月落地仍然存在不确定性。换个角度看,今年前三季度,LPR各降一次,因此将降准保留到四季度,引导四季度LPR再降同样是可能的选择。因此,对于9月降准市场可以期待,但似乎还不能作为基准预期。</p><p>从理论上讲,尽管MLF与逆回购规模相对于每日质押式回购市场的成交规模,乃至于银行整体的负债规模都相对有限,但是按照央行的观点,逆回购与MLF分别是商业银行从央行获取短期和中期基础货币的边际成本,由于市场价格更多由边际成本决定,因此其对市场利率的定价仍然将发挥重要的影响。但在4月中旬以来,资金利率已经大幅低于政策利率,在这样的背景下,如果央行仍然在通过大规模的MLF和逆回购来补充流动性缺口,这在理论上将会推动资金利率逐步向政策利率回归。但央行如果通过降准置换MLF释放低成本资金,这至少在理论上会更有利于资金面的宽松维持更长。</p><p>三、<b>疫情与地产市场的不确定性仍存 大方向上仍可维持乐观</b></p><p>在当前时点,国内疫情仍在演进的过程中。目前31个省级行政单位中,仅有7个区域内无中高风险病例。考虑在10月重要会议前,控制疫情扩散仍将是国内政策的重要目标,因此疫情可能仍将对经济活动的恢复带来约束。尽管近期高温天气的冲击减弱,经济即将步入旺季,本周地产销售数据也出现了一定的改善,但生产端各行业开工指标的恢复程度均相对有限,仍然明显低于去年同期,钢材表观需求也未见起色。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eef939b642c38c2da22ade87e8f4e2a7\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"319\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>更重要的是,地产市场信用收缩的局面仍未改变,由于房地产市场未来模式的顶层设计尚未明确,政府对于当前地产市场的救助始终坚持市场化原则,究竟由谁来承担相关损失一直没有明确的态度,考虑到各地地产市场与地方政府财力的差异性,这导致了地产市场的处置进度仍然偏慢。由于出险房企无力自救,金融机构对于地产信用风险也采取规避的态度,这使得地产信用风险仍在进一步传导的过程中。</p><p>考虑到房地产对于我国经济的重要性,在地产信用收缩尚未改善的背景下,经济的改善程度仍然有限,稳信用的目标实现仍然需要央行的继续发力,这也意味着流动性环境很难出现趋势性的收紧。在当前的利差水平上,债券仍然具备较高的安全边际,在大方向上仍然可以对债券维持乐观的态度。</p><p>四、<b>短期继续下行存在阻力 维持中高久期等待催化</b></p><p>但从短期来看,尽管疫情对于经济的压制仍存,但随着旺季来临,经济的方向可能仍然是在恢复,在票据利率的上行后,8月信贷可能也会出现一定程度的发力,前期专项债等政策可能发挥更大的作用。除非基本面受到了新的冲击,使其恢复的方向再度发生变化,否则其对利率水平也难以带来进一步的催化。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4582c6a95329bc0477e79481274ab161\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>另一方面,资金利率短期仍然偏低,短期也很难出现趋势性的收紧,在当前利差水平下这对于债券仍然带来了支持。但考虑资金利率的中枢已较8月上旬有所抬升,未来波动的幅度仍然存在不确定性,这也对利差水平的进一步压缩带来了阻力。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae9f431e64cca4205b8cc923602f881c\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"421\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>因此,在当前时点,尽管大方向上依然可以维持乐观,但收益率进一步回落仍然需要催化剂,短期市场的波动可能加大。在这样的背景下,投资者可以将久期维持在中性偏高的水平,但不宜过度激进,维持投资组合的高流动性,根据市场的变化及时调整,等待催化剂的逐步显现。</p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>不用再担心资金面,9月会降准吗?</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n不用再担心资金面,9月会降准吗?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-05 08:46 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzA4Njc2ODAxMg==&mid=2247499615&idx=1&sn=72b7de00fa6487f0417e61f6069029cc&chksm=9fc11fbca8b696aa1ee164fd10f4880b6512ef1d8f2a0d933f3e9aa192eff526511cd8e3581c&mpshare=1&scene=23&srcid=0905dw2WXk3M4fAK8KJpXdDh&sharer_sharetime=1662335297380&sharer_shareid=00a55b671777cf0e253d4693000ead51#rd><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>9月降准可以期待但不是基准预期,如果落地将是明确利好。本周疫情的反复使得经济预期再度弱化,叠加跨月前后资金利率并未继续走高,市场对资金面的担忧减弱,甚至开始期待9月可能的降准,国内利率再度走低。逆回购与MLF分别是银行获取短期和中期基础货币的边际成本,因此政策利率对市场定价意义重大。但当前资金利率已经大幅低于政策利率,如果央行仍通过MLF和逆回购来补充缺口,这在理论上将会推动资金利率逐步向政策利率...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzA4Njc2ODAxMg==&mid=2247499615&idx=1&sn=72b7de00fa6487f0417e61f6069029cc&chksm=9fc11fbca8b696aa1ee164fd10f4880b6512ef1d8f2a0d933f3e9aa192eff526511cd8e3581c&mpshare=1&scene=23&srcid=0905dw2WXk3M4fAK8KJpXdDh&sharer_sharetime=1662335297380&sharer_shareid=00a55b671777cf0e253d4693000ead51#rd\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ef70d1a7abd66a31834ef044e9f2343","relate_stocks":{"000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzA4Njc2ODAxMg==&mid=2247499615&idx=1&sn=72b7de00fa6487f0417e61f6069029cc&chksm=9fc11fbca8b696aa1ee164fd10f4880b6512ef1d8f2a0d933f3e9aa192eff526511cd8e3581c&mpshare=1&scene=23&srcid=0905dw2WXk3M4fAK8KJpXdDh&sharer_sharetime=1662335297380&sharer_shareid=00a55b671777cf0e253d4693000ead51#rd","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1189807388","content_text":"9月降准可以期待但不是基准预期,如果落地将是明确利好。本周疫情的反复使得经济预期再度弱化,叠加跨月前后资金利率并未继续走高,市场对资金面的担忧减弱,甚至开始期待9月可能的降准,国内利率再度走低。逆回购与MLF分别是银行获取短期和中期基础货币的边际成本,因此政策利率对市场定价意义重大。但当前资金利率已经大幅低于政策利率,如果央行仍通过MLF和逆回购来补充缺口,这在理论上将会推动资金利率逐步向政策利率回归。但央行如果通过降准置换MLF释放低成本资金,这无疑将有利于资金面的宽松维持更长。市场对降准预期的核心还是由于9月后MLF到期规模的扩大,猜测央行可通过降准置换MLF降低银行的融资成本,同时对冲近期银行净融出的回落。但是降准置换MLF为银行节约的成本有限,央行若希望引导LPR下降不如引导存款利率上限再降。央行对于短期资金面的波动主要仍然是通过逆回购与MLF进行对冲,降准更多是为了补充信贷扩张带来的超储消耗。考虑今年仅4月降准释放5300亿长期流动性,央行利润上缴相当于降准0.5%释放10000亿,信贷扩张消耗的超储仍有近4000亿有待补充,因此年内仍有较大概率实施降准,但其是否会在9月落地仍然存在不确定性,四季度央行通过降准再度引导LPR下降的可能也是存在的。对于9月降准市场可以期待,但似乎还不能作为基准预期。在当前时点,国内疫情仍在演进的过程中,重要会议前控制疫情扩散仍将是国内政策的重要目标,因此可能仍将对经济活动的恢复带来约束。更重要的是,地产市场信用收缩的局面仍未改变,考虑到房地产对于我国经济的重要性,稳信用的目标实现仍然需要央行的继续发力,这也意味着流动性环境很难出现趋势性的收紧。在当前的利差水平上,债券仍然具备较高的安全边际。但随着旺季来临,经济的方向可能仍然是在恢复,尽管存在疫情压制,但除非后续基本面受恢复的方向再度发生变化,否则其对利率水平也难以带来进一步的催化。另一方面,资金利率短期仍然偏低,但考虑中枢已较8月上旬有所抬升,未来波动的幅度仍然存在不确定性,这也对利差水平的进一步压缩带来了阻力。因此,在当前时点,尽管大方向上依然可以维持乐观,但收益率进一步回落仍然需要催化剂,短期市场的波动可能加大。在这样的背景下,投资者可以继续将久期维持在中性偏高的水平,但不宜过度激进,维持投资组合的高流动性,根据市场的变化及时调整,等待催化剂的逐步显现。本周国内利率再度回落。基本面方面,8月中采制造业PMI略有回升,需求端新订单及新出口订单指数均出现了边际改善,但整体仍位于荣枯线下方,生产指数受高温限电等因素影响也与上月持平,整体供需双弱的格局并未出现根本性的改观。而国内疫情仍在发展的过程中,深圳、成都等重点城市也相继进入了部分静默状态,尽管8月末票据利率出现了明显回升,但疫情的反复仍然使市场对于经济的预期再度转弱。而在资金面,跨月前财政支出的推动下,使得资金利率并未出现进一步走高。尽管跨月当日资金利率有所抬升,跨月结束后也没有再回到隔夜加权1%的水平,但在基本面预期的弱化之下,市场对于资金面转向的担忧反而有所减弱,并在博弈9月潜在的降准可能。在这些因素的影响下,本周国内利率再度转为下行,10年期国债活跃券220010下行约3BP至2.63%,且短端利率的下行幅度更大,期限利差再度走阔。一、疫情冲击下市场对资金面担忧减弱 开始憧憬9月降准我们在此前的报告中一直强调,由于目前央行放弃了“引导市场利率围绕政策利率波动”的表述,同时又将7月以来逆回购操作规模的下降归因为市场需求的下降,这意味着当前不论是数量还是价格型的政策工具都无法反映央行对资金面的态度,这使得市场对于资金面的预期产生了混乱。在央行缺乏对资金面的预期引导之下,资金面的事实比预期更加重要。尽管8月中下旬以来,银行净融出规模下降,使得隔夜利率在外生冲击下的波动加大,似乎难以回到8月上旬1%左右的水平,这在一定程度上限制了利率下行的空间。但如果单纯从期限利差的角度看,不论是短端利率与资金利率的利差,还是长端利率与短端利率的利差,当前都仍在偏高的位置。换而言之,市场对于资金利率的波动已有一定的定价,当前资金利率的上行程度难以对市场带来趋势性的冲击,更多仍是情绪层面的扰动。在这样的背景下,疫情反复带来的基本面预期弱化,又使得市场对资金面的担忧减弱,甚至开始期待9月可能的降准,这也是收益率近期再度下行的核心因素。二、9月降准可以期待但不是基准预期 如果落地将是明确利好市场认为央行可能降准的核心因素,主要还是9月后MLF到期规模的扩大,央行可以通过降准置换MLF降低银行的融资成本,同时也认为如果降准落地,也可以对冲近期银行净融出的回落。但事实上,MLF到期量大并不能成为央行一定会降准的理由,例如去年7月的降准后,央行在MLF到期量偏大的背景下一直也是等额续作。如果央行与4月一样降准25BP,考虑MLF利率与法准利率的利差,其为商业银行节约的成本仅在50亿左右。如果央行希望通过降低金融机构负债成本,进而引导LPR的下降,引导存款利率上限下降无疑是更好的选择,节约成本不是央行降准的主要目的。根据央行此前短中长期的流动性框架,短期资金面的波动主要仍然是通过逆回购与MLF进行对冲,而降准则是根据货币政策调控需要和存款增长带来法定准备金需求增加的速度,适时适度调整。过去几年,央行降准的规模与信贷扩张所消耗的超储也是大致匹配的。我们估计,今年信贷扩张所消耗的超储规模大约将达到1.9万亿,而今年央行仅在4月降准一次,释放了5300亿长期流动性,这样的规模是相对偏低的。另一方面,今年央行利润上缴的规模明显扩大,根据二季度货币政策执行报告的表述,“截至7月底已上缴1万亿元,相当于全面降准近0.5个百分点的政策力度”。但即便考虑这部分因素,长期流动性的释放规模相对于信贷扩张而言仍存4000亿左右的缺口,年内仍有较大的可能再度降准25BP。但如果节约成本并不是降准主要目的,加上8月信贷收支分析会后信贷投放可能也有所增加,从历史上看,似乎也无法找到在重要会议前降准落地的规律,因此降准是否会在9月落地仍然存在不确定性。换个角度看,今年前三季度,LPR各降一次,因此将降准保留到四季度,引导四季度LPR再降同样是可能的选择。因此,对于9月降准市场可以期待,但似乎还不能作为基准预期。从理论上讲,尽管MLF与逆回购规模相对于每日质押式回购市场的成交规模,乃至于银行整体的负债规模都相对有限,但是按照央行的观点,逆回购与MLF分别是商业银行从央行获取短期和中期基础货币的边际成本,由于市场价格更多由边际成本决定,因此其对市场利率的定价仍然将发挥重要的影响。但在4月中旬以来,资金利率已经大幅低于政策利率,在这样的背景下,如果央行仍然在通过大规模的MLF和逆回购来补充流动性缺口,这在理论上将会推动资金利率逐步向政策利率回归。但央行如果通过降准置换MLF释放低成本资金,这至少在理论上会更有利于资金面的宽松维持更长。三、疫情与地产市场的不确定性仍存 大方向上仍可维持乐观在当前时点,国内疫情仍在演进的过程中。目前31个省级行政单位中,仅有7个区域内无中高风险病例。考虑在10月重要会议前,控制疫情扩散仍将是国内政策的重要目标,因此疫情可能仍将对经济活动的恢复带来约束。尽管近期高温天气的冲击减弱,经济即将步入旺季,本周地产销售数据也出现了一定的改善,但生产端各行业开工指标的恢复程度均相对有限,仍然明显低于去年同期,钢材表观需求也未见起色。更重要的是,地产市场信用收缩的局面仍未改变,由于房地产市场未来模式的顶层设计尚未明确,政府对于当前地产市场的救助始终坚持市场化原则,究竟由谁来承担相关损失一直没有明确的态度,考虑到各地地产市场与地方政府财力的差异性,这导致了地产市场的处置进度仍然偏慢。由于出险房企无力自救,金融机构对于地产信用风险也采取规避的态度,这使得地产信用风险仍在进一步传导的过程中。考虑到房地产对于我国经济的重要性,在地产信用收缩尚未改善的背景下,经济的改善程度仍然有限,稳信用的目标实现仍然需要央行的继续发力,这也意味着流动性环境很难出现趋势性的收紧。在当前的利差水平上,债券仍然具备较高的安全边际,在大方向上仍然可以对债券维持乐观的态度。四、短期继续下行存在阻力 维持中高久期等待催化但从短期来看,尽管疫情对于经济的压制仍存,但随着旺季来临,经济的方向可能仍然是在恢复,在票据利率的上行后,8月信贷可能也会出现一定程度的发力,前期专项债等政策可能发挥更大的作用。除非基本面受到了新的冲击,使其恢复的方向再度发生变化,否则其对利率水平也难以带来进一步的催化。另一方面,资金利率短期仍然偏低,短期也很难出现趋势性的收紧,在当前利差水平下这对于债券仍然带来了支持。但考虑资金利率的中枢已较8月上旬有所抬升,未来波动的幅度仍然存在不确定性,这也对利差水平的进一步压缩带来了阻力。因此,在当前时点,尽管大方向上依然可以维持乐观,但收益率进一步回落仍然需要催化剂,短期市场的波动可能加大。在这样的背景下,投资者可以将久期维持在中性偏高的水平,但不宜过度激进,维持投资组合的高流动性,根据市场的变化及时调整,等待催化剂的逐步显现。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":952,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":687978260,"gmtCreate":1660728625553,"gmtModify":1660728625553,"author":{"id":"3482738579178311","authorId":"3482738579178311","authorIdStr":"3482738579178311","name":"59743654","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"intel还是拉不下面子","listText":"intel还是拉不下面子","text":"intel还是拉不下面子","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/687978260","repostId":"2260895836","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2260895836","pubTimestamp":1660716335,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2260895836?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-08-17 14:05","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"台积电三纳米芯片:七大客户排队,苹果抢头彩","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2260895836","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"8月17日,台媒工商时报报道称,虽然近期有关晶圆代工龙头台积电可能放缓3nm扩产进程的消息频传,但台积电已重申3nm扩产将按原计划进行。业内人士指出,今年底苹果将是第一家采用3nm投片的客户,英特尔明","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>8月17日,台媒工商时报报道称,虽然近期有关晶圆代工龙头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>可能放缓3nm扩产进程的消息频传,但台积电已重申3nm扩产将按原计划进行。</p><p>业内人士指出,今年底<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>将是第一家采用3nm投片的客户,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>明年下半年将扩大采用3nm生产处理器内芯片块(tiles),包括AMD、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">高通</a>、联发科、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRCM\">博通</a>等,会在明年及后年陆续完成3nm新芯片开案。</p><p>今年来,由于俄乌冲突及全球通胀等外部不利因素,智能手机及消费电子产品需求疲弱,后续车用芯片与高性能计算产品(HPC)芯片需求也可能随之放缓,业内对明年上半年能否有效完成去库存仍存疑虑。而以历史经验来看,芯片行业不景气通常会加快芯片开发速度。</p><p>随着主要半导体大厂的新一代芯片技术蓝图慢慢清晰,逐步转向采用3nm制程工艺,台积电预计3nm将成大规模且长期需求制程,目前台积电针对3nm制程打造的Fab 18B厂进入量产,Fab 18厂区的P7~P9厂兴建计划也已启动。</p><p>据台媒报道,苹果这次抢得3nm头彩,将在下半年将首次采用3nm投片,首款产品可能是M2 Pro处理器,预计明年的iPhoneA17处理器、以及M2及M3系列处理器都将采用台积电3nm制程。</p><p>英特尔虽然有意抢攻晶圆代工,但在自家处理器采用chiplet设计后,明年下半年其内建绘图芯片(GPU)和运算芯片(CPU)可能将采用台积电3nm制程量产,英特尔推出的GPU、FPGA等亦会在明、后年之后采用台积电3nm投片。</p><p>此外,AMD在明、后年转向Zen 5架构后,部份产品也已确定会采用台积电3nm制程投片。至于英伟达、高通、联发科、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">博通</a>等大客户,同样会在2024年之后完成3nm芯片设计并开始量产。</p></body></html>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>台积电三纳米芯片:七大客户排队,苹果抢头彩</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n台积电三纳米芯片:七大客户排队,苹果抢头彩\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-17 14:05 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3667910><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>8月17日,台媒工商时报报道称,虽然近期有关晶圆代工龙头台积电可能放缓3nm扩产进程的消息频传,但台积电已重申3nm扩产将按原计划进行。业内人士指出,今年底苹果将是第一家采用3nm投片的客户,英特尔明年下半年将扩大采用3nm生产处理器内芯片块(tiles),包括AMD、英伟达、高通、联发科、博通等,会在明年及后年陆续完成3nm新芯片开案。今年来,由于俄乌冲突及全球通胀等外部不利因素,智能手机及...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3667910\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b98f9e740cb6fb06990004c4ea7eae84","relate_stocks":{"TSM":"台积电"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3667910","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"2260895836","content_text":"8月17日,台媒工商时报报道称,虽然近期有关晶圆代工龙头台积电可能放缓3nm扩产进程的消息频传,但台积电已重申3nm扩产将按原计划进行。业内人士指出,今年底苹果将是第一家采用3nm投片的客户,英特尔明年下半年将扩大采用3nm生产处理器内芯片块(tiles),包括AMD、英伟达、高通、联发科、博通等,会在明年及后年陆续完成3nm新芯片开案。今年来,由于俄乌冲突及全球通胀等外部不利因素,智能手机及消费电子产品需求疲弱,后续车用芯片与高性能计算产品(HPC)芯片需求也可能随之放缓,业内对明年上半年能否有效完成去库存仍存疑虑。而以历史经验来看,芯片行业不景气通常会加快芯片开发速度。随着主要半导体大厂的新一代芯片技术蓝图慢慢清晰,逐步转向采用3nm制程工艺,台积电预计3nm将成大规模且长期需求制程,目前台积电针对3nm制程打造的Fab 18B厂进入量产,Fab 18厂区的P7~P9厂兴建计划也已启动。据台媒报道,苹果这次抢得3nm头彩,将在下半年将首次采用3nm投片,首款产品可能是M2 Pro处理器,预计明年的iPhoneA17处理器、以及M2及M3系列处理器都将采用台积电3nm制程。英特尔虽然有意抢攻晶圆代工,但在自家处理器采用chiplet设计后,明年下半年其内建绘图芯片(GPU)和运算芯片(CPU)可能将采用台积电3nm制程量产,英特尔推出的GPU、FPGA等亦会在明、后年之后采用台积电3nm投片。此外,AMD在明、后年转向Zen 5架构后,部份产品也已确定会采用台积电3nm制程投片。至于英伟达、高通、联发科、博通等大客户,同样会在2024年之后完成3nm芯片设计并开始量产。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1001,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":681327168,"gmtCreate":1656681711056,"gmtModify":1704865609140,"author":{"id":"3482738579178311","authorId":"3482738579178311","authorIdStr":"3482738579178311","name":"59743654","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">$台积电(TSM)$</a>市场经常犯错。。半导体fab比油井更重要。。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">$台积电(TSM)$</a>市场经常犯错。。半导体fab比油井更重要。。","text":"$台积电(TSM)$市场经常犯错。。半导体fab比油井更重要。。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/681327168","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2351,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":689052036,"gmtCreate":1655301530826,"gmtModify":1704861850391,"author":{"id":"3482738579178311","authorId":"3482738579178311","authorIdStr":"3482738579178311","name":"59743654","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"降低51没意义?","listText":"降低51没意义?","text":"降低51没意义?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/689052036","repostId":"2243954701","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2243954701","pubTimestamp":1655267079,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2243954701?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-06-15 12:24","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"辉瑞(PFE.US)新冠口服药对轻症无效 暂停标准风险患者试验","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2243954701","media":"智通财经","summary":"智通财经APP获悉,辉瑞周二表示,将暂停其抗新冠病毒口服药物Paxlovid在标准风险患者中的试验。此前一项研究显示,该药物对轻症人群无效。数据显示,标准风险组的相对风险降低了51%,辉瑞表示这没有统计意义。目前,Paxlovid已获得高危人群的紧急使用授权,可有效减少住院率和死亡率。辉瑞表示,计划将向美国食品药品监督管理局提交申请,申请中包括这些新数据,以寻求该药物在高危人群中使用的全面批准。","content":"<html><body><p>智通财经APP获悉,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">辉瑞</a>(PFE.US)周二表示,将暂停其抗新冠病毒口服药物Paxlovid在标准风险患者中的试验。此前一项研究显示,该药物对轻症人群无效。</p><p>据悉,准风险人群通常指没有面临严重疾病风险的人,以及可以在没有药物的情况下自行康复的人。数据显示,标准风险组的相对风险降低了51%,辉瑞表示这没有统计意义。</p><p>目前,Paxlovid已获得高危人群的紧急使用授权,可有效减少住院率和死亡率。根据美国卫生与公众服务部提供的数据,美国已经使用了超过120万个疗程的Paxlovid。辉瑞表示,计划将向美国食品药品监督管理局(FDA)提交申请,申请中包括这些新数据,以寻求该药物在高危人群中使用的全面批准。</p><p>本月早些时候在以色列进行的一项研究的数据显示,Paxlovid降低了65岁及以上接种疫苗和未接种疫苗患者的新冠肺炎住院率和死亡率,但未发现该药物能预防年轻人的严重疾病。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>辉瑞(PFE.US)新冠口服药对轻症无效 暂停标准风险患者试验</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n辉瑞(PFE.US)新冠口服药对轻症无效 暂停标准风险患者试验\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-06-15 12:24 北京时间 <a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/738935.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉,辉瑞(PFE.US)周二表示,将暂停其抗新冠病毒口服药物Paxlovid在标准风险患者中的试验。此前一项研究显示,该药物对轻症人群无效。据悉,准风险人群通常指没有面临严重疾病风险的人,以及可以在没有药物的情况下自行康复的人。数据显示,标准风险组的相对风险降低了51%,辉瑞表示这没有统计意义。目前,Paxlovid已获得高危人群的紧急使用授权,可有效减少住院率和死亡率。根据美国...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/738935.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PFE":"辉瑞","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4568":"美国抗疫概念","BK4007":"制药"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/738935.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2243954701","content_text":"智通财经APP获悉,辉瑞(PFE.US)周二表示,将暂停其抗新冠病毒口服药物Paxlovid在标准风险患者中的试验。此前一项研究显示,该药物对轻症人群无效。据悉,准风险人群通常指没有面临严重疾病风险的人,以及可以在没有药物的情况下自行康复的人。数据显示,标准风险组的相对风险降低了51%,辉瑞表示这没有统计意义。目前,Paxlovid已获得高危人群的紧急使用授权,可有效减少住院率和死亡率。根据美国卫生与公众服务部提供的数据,美国已经使用了超过120万个疗程的Paxlovid。辉瑞表示,计划将向美国食品药品监督管理局(FDA)提交申请,申请中包括这些新数据,以寻求该药物在高危人群中使用的全面批准。本月早些时候在以色列进行的一项研究的数据显示,Paxlovid降低了65岁及以上接种疫苗和未接种疫苗患者的新冠肺炎住院率和死亡率,但未发现该药物能预防年轻人的严重疾病。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1406,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":613512335,"gmtCreate":1649937800800,"gmtModify":1649937800800,"author":{"id":"3482738579178311","authorId":"3482738579178311","authorIdStr":"3482738579178311","name":"59743654","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"台积电也算躺吗?","listText":"台积电也算躺吗?","text":"台积电也算躺吗?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/613512335","repostId":"1156743887","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1156743887","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"全球第五大财经门户网站Investing.com中国官方微信,提供全球各国海量金融资讯和实时行情数据,包括股票股指、外汇、期货、基金、债券、加密货币等。关注全球金融市场动态的投资者千万不可错过。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"英为财情Investing","id":"92","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/406e2b4996e14cd8a66a2a6864ef4313"},"pubTimestamp":1649932631,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1156743887?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-04-14 18:37","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"台积电营收创纪录,但躺着赚钱的日子不多了?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156743887","media":"英为财情Investing","summary":"北京时间4月14日下午,台积电公布了2022年第一季度的财报。受益于全球持续的芯片短缺,汽车和高性能计算芯片增长强劲,台积电季度营收创新高,净利润更是同比大涨45%,创下历史新高。强劲的一季度财报财报","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>北京时间4月14日下午,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>公布了2022年第一季度的财报。受益于全球持续的芯片短缺,汽车和高性能计算芯片增长强劲,台积电季度营收创新高,净利润更是同比大涨45%,创下历史新高。</p><p><b>强劲的一季度财报</b></p><p>财报显示,今年Q1,台积电的营收和毛利率均超出预期,且营收、净利润均双双创下历史新高:</p><ul><li><p>营收175.7亿美元,同比增长36%,环比增长11.6%,超出市场预期,也打破公司给出的172亿上限;</p></li><li><p>毛利率55.6%,同比增加3.2个百分点,环比增加2.9个百分点,创历史新高;</p></li><li><p>净利润2027.3亿新台币(约合69.99亿美元),同比增长45.1%,环比增长22.0%,历史最佳。</p></li></ul><p>在制程方面,7nm及更先进制程营收进一步增长,其中,7nm制程收入占比最高,达到30%(前季27%);5nm其次占比达20%(前季23%),两者合计占据五成营收。</p><p>按产品类型划分,高性能计算(HPC)业务成为最大营收贡献领域,本季收入占比达到41%(前季37%),环比大涨26%;传统强项智能手机业务占比有所下滑,本季收入占比达到40%(前季44%),环比微增1%;汽车芯片业务增长强劲,本季营收占比达到5%(前季4%),营收环比上涨26%。</p><p>值得一提的是,公司CEO魏哲家表示,智能手机、PC等消费电子终端需求的确出现疲软,但MCU、电源管理芯片等其余领域需求依旧强劲。</p><p><b>未来前景向好</b></p><p>在电话会上,管理层上调了2022年收入增速指引,认为可以超出此前20%的中高端区间,预计二季度收入为176-182亿美元,再超华尔街预期。按照以往成绩单来看,台积电最终的业绩都能落在区间上沿,甚至略超预期。因此,36%的收入增速,或许能保持到二季度。</p><p>台积电表示,受疫情等环境因素影响,客户将长期保持库存高水位,因此2022年公司产能依旧极为紧张。此外,资本开支、扩产计划均基于客户的具体需求情况,且公司持续收到客户预付款。整体行业依旧受益于HPC、5G等领域的强劲需求,因此即便短期产业面临周期下滑,也依旧不改公司长期看好的态度。</p><p>此外,3nm制程家族需求强劲,N3/N3E将有足够的产能支撑。台积电CEO魏哲家指出,3nm将会是公司下一个营收增长点。</p><p>魏哲还特别强调,即使经济下行,公司也不会降价。</p><p>受此利好消息影响,截止发稿台积电在美股盘前上涨近3%。</p><p><b>公允价值</b></p><p>根据InvestingPro的模型显示,台积电的公允价值为115.3美元,较当前价格高出13.6%。不过华尔街分析师显然更加看好台家电,他们给出的未来12个月平均的目标价格为159.1美元,较当前价格高出56.7%!目标价格区间为135-179美元之间,即使是最低的135美元也比当前价格高出33%。</p><p>此外,台积电的财务健康状况为3分(满分5分),表现良好。随着一季度强劲的季报流出,相信其评分有可能上调。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18e95deba65ef85bbe13121156743505\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1230\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>台积电公允价值,来源:InvestingPro</p><p>技术面,台积电整体处于高位横盘走势,目前RSI在超卖区域出现金叉,短期内在跌至97附近后企稳并展开反弹,短期压力位在100-110区间,若股价能够突破虚线阻力,并且填补此前的跳空缺口(红框处),股价有望挑战前期高点;但是,若不能突破阻力,股价或将再创新低,甚至彻底进入熊市。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f143143db7e3f6bc4d1099ab1e5f387f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"448\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>台积电日线图,来源:Investing.com</p><p><b>尾声</b></p><p>对于一家制造业代工厂来说,超过40%的净利率,简直是不敢想象,但台积电做到了!短期内芯片短缺的情况还将持续,台积电二季度或将再创佳绩。</p><p>但是芯片荒到底还能持续多久?</p><p>台积电CEO魏哲家表示,芯片短缺将持续到2022年;基辛格指出,需要“几年”的时间缓解;ASML方面表示,业界一致认为芯片短缺可能会持续两年;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>分析师也做出这样的预判称,芯片短缺将持续至2023年。</p><p>也有分析师预计,全球芯片短缺的问题将在今年下半年或者明年出现好转,芯片厂商躺着赚钱的日子或许快要结束了,这也许就是台积电从2021年1月横盘到现在,甚至出现熊市迹象的根本原因。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>台积电营收创纪录,但躺着赚钱的日子不多了?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; 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width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n台积电营收创纪录,但躺着赚钱的日子不多了?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/92\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/406e2b4996e14cd8a66a2a6864ef4313);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">英为财情Investing </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-04-14 18:37</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>北京时间4月14日下午,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>公布了2022年第一季度的财报。受益于全球持续的芯片短缺,汽车和高性能计算芯片增长强劲,台积电季度营收创新高,净利润更是同比大涨45%,创下历史新高。</p><p><b>强劲的一季度财报</b></p><p>财报显示,今年Q1,台积电的营收和毛利率均超出预期,且营收、净利润均双双创下历史新高:</p><ul><li><p>营收175.7亿美元,同比增长36%,环比增长11.6%,超出市场预期,也打破公司给出的172亿上限;</p></li><li><p>毛利率55.6%,同比增加3.2个百分点,环比增加2.9个百分点,创历史新高;</p></li><li><p>净利润2027.3亿新台币(约合69.99亿美元),同比增长45.1%,环比增长22.0%,历史最佳。</p></li></ul><p>在制程方面,7nm及更先进制程营收进一步增长,其中,7nm制程收入占比最高,达到30%(前季27%);5nm其次占比达20%(前季23%),两者合计占据五成营收。</p><p>按产品类型划分,高性能计算(HPC)业务成为最大营收贡献领域,本季收入占比达到41%(前季37%),环比大涨26%;传统强项智能手机业务占比有所下滑,本季收入占比达到40%(前季44%),环比微增1%;汽车芯片业务增长强劲,本季营收占比达到5%(前季4%),营收环比上涨26%。</p><p>值得一提的是,公司CEO魏哲家表示,智能手机、PC等消费电子终端需求的确出现疲软,但MCU、电源管理芯片等其余领域需求依旧强劲。</p><p><b>未来前景向好</b></p><p>在电话会上,管理层上调了2022年收入增速指引,认为可以超出此前20%的中高端区间,预计二季度收入为176-182亿美元,再超华尔街预期。按照以往成绩单来看,台积电最终的业绩都能落在区间上沿,甚至略超预期。因此,36%的收入增速,或许能保持到二季度。</p><p>台积电表示,受疫情等环境因素影响,客户将长期保持库存高水位,因此2022年公司产能依旧极为紧张。此外,资本开支、扩产计划均基于客户的具体需求情况,且公司持续收到客户预付款。整体行业依旧受益于HPC、5G等领域的强劲需求,因此即便短期产业面临周期下滑,也依旧不改公司长期看好的态度。</p><p>此外,3nm制程家族需求强劲,N3/N3E将有足够的产能支撑。台积电CEO魏哲家指出,3nm将会是公司下一个营收增长点。</p><p>魏哲还特别强调,即使经济下行,公司也不会降价。</p><p>受此利好消息影响,截止发稿台积电在美股盘前上涨近3%。</p><p><b>公允价值</b></p><p>根据InvestingPro的模型显示,台积电的公允价值为115.3美元,较当前价格高出13.6%。不过华尔街分析师显然更加看好台家电,他们给出的未来12个月平均的目标价格为159.1美元,较当前价格高出56.7%!目标价格区间为135-179美元之间,即使是最低的135美元也比当前价格高出33%。</p><p>此外,台积电的财务健康状况为3分(满分5分),表现良好。随着一季度强劲的季报流出,相信其评分有可能上调。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18e95deba65ef85bbe13121156743505\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1230\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>台积电公允价值,来源:InvestingPro</p><p>技术面,台积电整体处于高位横盘走势,目前RSI在超卖区域出现金叉,短期内在跌至97附近后企稳并展开反弹,短期压力位在100-110区间,若股价能够突破虚线阻力,并且填补此前的跳空缺口(红框处),股价有望挑战前期高点;但是,若不能突破阻力,股价或将再创新低,甚至彻底进入熊市。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f143143db7e3f6bc4d1099ab1e5f387f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"448\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>台积电日线图,来源:Investing.com</p><p><b>尾声</b></p><p>对于一家制造业代工厂来说,超过40%的净利率,简直是不敢想象,但台积电做到了!短期内芯片短缺的情况还将持续,台积电二季度或将再创佳绩。</p><p>但是芯片荒到底还能持续多久?</p><p>台积电CEO魏哲家表示,芯片短缺将持续到2022年;基辛格指出,需要“几年”的时间缓解;ASML方面表示,业界一致认为芯片短缺可能会持续两年;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>分析师也做出这样的预判称,芯片短缺将持续至2023年。</p><p>也有分析师预计,全球芯片短缺的问题将在今年下半年或者明年出现好转,芯片厂商躺着赚钱的日子或许快要结束了,这也许就是台积电从2021年1月横盘到现在,甚至出现熊市迹象的根本原因。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/975836d8c6eb511241583dccb0d387f2","relate_stocks":{"BK4581":"高盛持仓","03145":"华夏亚洲高息股","BK4526":"热门中概股","BK4512":"苹果概念","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4141":"半导体产品","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","EWT":"台湾ETF-iShares MSCI","TSM":"台积电","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4527":"明星科技股"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156743887","content_text":"北京时间4月14日下午,台积电公布了2022年第一季度的财报。受益于全球持续的芯片短缺,汽车和高性能计算芯片增长强劲,台积电季度营收创新高,净利润更是同比大涨45%,创下历史新高。强劲的一季度财报财报显示,今年Q1,台积电的营收和毛利率均超出预期,且营收、净利润均双双创下历史新高:营收175.7亿美元,同比增长36%,环比增长11.6%,超出市场预期,也打破公司给出的172亿上限;毛利率55.6%,同比增加3.2个百分点,环比增加2.9个百分点,创历史新高;净利润2027.3亿新台币(约合69.99亿美元),同比增长45.1%,环比增长22.0%,历史最佳。在制程方面,7nm及更先进制程营收进一步增长,其中,7nm制程收入占比最高,达到30%(前季27%);5nm其次占比达20%(前季23%),两者合计占据五成营收。按产品类型划分,高性能计算(HPC)业务成为最大营收贡献领域,本季收入占比达到41%(前季37%),环比大涨26%;传统强项智能手机业务占比有所下滑,本季收入占比达到40%(前季44%),环比微增1%;汽车芯片业务增长强劲,本季营收占比达到5%(前季4%),营收环比上涨26%。值得一提的是,公司CEO魏哲家表示,智能手机、PC等消费电子终端需求的确出现疲软,但MCU、电源管理芯片等其余领域需求依旧强劲。未来前景向好在电话会上,管理层上调了2022年收入增速指引,认为可以超出此前20%的中高端区间,预计二季度收入为176-182亿美元,再超华尔街预期。按照以往成绩单来看,台积电最终的业绩都能落在区间上沿,甚至略超预期。因此,36%的收入增速,或许能保持到二季度。台积电表示,受疫情等环境因素影响,客户将长期保持库存高水位,因此2022年公司产能依旧极为紧张。此外,资本开支、扩产计划均基于客户的具体需求情况,且公司持续收到客户预付款。整体行业依旧受益于HPC、5G等领域的强劲需求,因此即便短期产业面临周期下滑,也依旧不改公司长期看好的态度。此外,3nm制程家族需求强劲,N3/N3E将有足够的产能支撑。台积电CEO魏哲家指出,3nm将会是公司下一个营收增长点。魏哲还特别强调,即使经济下行,公司也不会降价。受此利好消息影响,截止发稿台积电在美股盘前上涨近3%。公允价值根据InvestingPro的模型显示,台积电的公允价值为115.3美元,较当前价格高出13.6%。不过华尔街分析师显然更加看好台家电,他们给出的未来12个月平均的目标价格为159.1美元,较当前价格高出56.7%!目标价格区间为135-179美元之间,即使是最低的135美元也比当前价格高出33%。此外,台积电的财务健康状况为3分(满分5分),表现良好。随着一季度强劲的季报流出,相信其评分有可能上调。台积电公允价值,来源:InvestingPro技术面,台积电整体处于高位横盘走势,目前RSI在超卖区域出现金叉,短期内在跌至97附近后企稳并展开反弹,短期压力位在100-110区间,若股价能够突破虚线阻力,并且填补此前的跳空缺口(红框处),股价有望挑战前期高点;但是,若不能突破阻力,股价或将再创新低,甚至彻底进入熊市。台积电日线图,来源:Investing.com尾声对于一家制造业代工厂来说,超过40%的净利率,简直是不敢想象,但台积电做到了!短期内芯片短缺的情况还将持续,台积电二季度或将再创佳绩。但是芯片荒到底还能持续多久?台积电CEO魏哲家表示,芯片短缺将持续到2022年;基辛格指出,需要“几年”的时间缓解;ASML方面表示,业界一致认为芯片短缺可能会持续两年;高盛分析师也做出这样的预判称,芯片短缺将持续至2023年。也有分析师预计,全球芯片短缺的问题将在今年下半年或者明年出现好转,芯片厂商躺着赚钱的日子或许快要结束了,这也许就是台积电从2021年1月横盘到现在,甚至出现熊市迹象的根本原因。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2049,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":636667235,"gmtCreate":1645801448782,"gmtModify":1645801448782,"author":{"id":"3482738579178311","authorId":"3482738579178311","authorIdStr":"3482738579178311","name":"59743654","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIR\">$Vir Biotechnology, Inc.(VIR)$</a> 一个季度3个多亿利润,市值只有30多亿。。就算药物只能卖半年好了。。。怎么也有六个多亿利润。管线的其他药物就不值钱吗?","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIR\">$Vir Biotechnology, Inc.(VIR)$</a> 一个季度3个多亿利润,市值只有30多亿。。就算药物只能卖半年好了。。。怎么也有六个多亿利润。管线的其他药物就不值钱吗?","text":"$Vir Biotechnology, Inc.(VIR)$ 一个季度3个多亿利润,市值只有30多亿。。就算药物只能卖半年好了。。。怎么也有六个多亿利润。管线的其他药物就不值钱吗?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/636667235","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2505,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":631992480,"gmtCreate":1644418008007,"gmtModify":1644418008007,"author":{"id":"3482738579178311","authorId":"3482738579178311","authorIdStr":"3482738579178311","name":"59743654","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIR\">$Vir Biotechnology, Inc.(VIR)$</a>重要的事说三遍。买买买","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIR\">$Vir Biotechnology, Inc.(VIR)$</a>重要的事说三遍。买买买","text":"$Vir Biotechnology, Inc.(VIR)$重要的事说三遍。买买买","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/631992480","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1999,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":631903395,"gmtCreate":1644412786637,"gmtModify":1644412786637,"author":{"id":"3482738579178311","authorId":"3482738579178311","authorIdStr":"3482738579178311","name":"59743654","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIR\">$Vir Biotechnology, Inc.(VIR)$</a>严重低估,销售至少20亿。。","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIR\">$Vir Biotechnology, Inc.(VIR)$</a>严重低估,销售至少20亿。。","text":"$Vir Biotechnology, Inc.(VIR)$严重低估,销售至少20亿。。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/631903395","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1988,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":633717903,"gmtCreate":1644323359429,"gmtModify":1644323359429,"author":{"id":"3482738579178311","authorId":"3482738579178311","authorIdStr":"3482738579178311","name":"59743654","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">$辉瑞(PFE)$</a>相信辉瑞的现金流,不是大收购,就是大回购。","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">$辉瑞(PFE)$</a>相信辉瑞的现金流,不是大收购,就是大回购。","text":"$辉瑞(PFE)$相信辉瑞的现金流,不是大收购,就是大回购。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/633717903","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1978,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":633427035,"gmtCreate":1644293156100,"gmtModify":1644293156100,"author":{"id":"3482738579178311","authorId":"3482738579178311","authorIdStr":"3482738579178311","name":"59743654","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">$辉瑞(PFE)$</a>辉瑞的财报值得赌。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">$辉瑞(PFE)$</a>辉瑞的财报值得赌。","text":"$辉瑞(PFE)$辉瑞的财报值得赌。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/633427035","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1481,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":630713384,"gmtCreate":1643038796365,"gmtModify":1643038796365,"author":{"id":"3482738579178311","authorId":"3482738579178311","authorIdStr":"3482738579178311","name":"59743654","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIR\">$Vir Biotechnology, Inc.(VIR)$</a>全年销售至少12亿。药企毛利历来是99。市值只有四十亿。。一年就能赚回市值1/4。这价格也是醉了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIR\">$Vir Biotechnology, Inc.(VIR)$</a>全年销售至少12亿。药企毛利历来是99。市值只有四十亿。。一年就能赚回市值1/4。这价格也是醉了","text":"$Vir Biotechnology, Inc.(VIR)$全年销售至少12亿。药企毛利历来是99。市值只有四十亿。。一年就能赚回市值1/4。这价格也是醉了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/630713384","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1664,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":630461153,"gmtCreate":1643022458446,"gmtModify":1643022458446,"author":{"id":"3482738579178311","authorId":"3482738579178311","authorIdStr":"3482738579178311","name":"59743654","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">$辉瑞(PFE)$</a> 严重低估。。无论疫情是否结束。药物销量只会狂飙","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">$辉瑞(PFE)$</a> 严重低估。。无论疫情是否结束。药物销量只会狂飙","text":"$辉瑞(PFE)$ 严重低估。。无论疫情是否结束。药物销量只会狂飙","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/630461153","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1129,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":697088251,"gmtCreate":1642161932288,"gmtModify":1642161932288,"author":{"id":"3482738579178311","authorId":"3482738579178311","authorIdStr":"3482738579178311","name":"59743654","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"再牛没你牛,人家世界第一的代工厂,无论技术,市场预测都不如你,智商都不如你。**一样投资越来越大。","listText":"再牛没你牛,人家世界第一的代工厂,无论技术,市场预测都不如你,智商都不如你。**一样投资越来越大。","text":"再牛没你牛,人家世界第一的代工厂,无论技术,市场预测都不如你,智商都不如你。**一样投资越来越大。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/697088251","repostId":"1120168716","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1120168716","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"全球第五大财经门户网站Investing.com中国官方微信,提供全球各国海量金融资讯和实时行情数据,包括股票股指、外汇、期货、基金、债券、加密货币等。关注全球金融市场动态的投资者千万不可错过。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"英为财情Investing","id":"92","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/406e2b4996e14cd8a66a2a6864ef4313"},"pubTimestamp":1642156823,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1120168716?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-01-14 18:40","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"周期拐点将至,台积电还能牛多久?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120168716","media":"英为财情Investing","summary":"1月13日,全球晶圆代工之王台积电发布了强劲的2021财年第四季度的财报,盘中一度创造新的历史纪录145美元,市值逼近7000亿美元,成为下一个进入万亿美元市值俱乐部的有力竞争者。财报创历史新高量价齐","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>1月13日,全球晶圆代工之王台积电发布了强劲的2021财年第四季度的财报,盘中一度创造新的历史纪录145美元,市值逼近7000亿美元,成为下一个进入万亿美元市值俱乐部的有力竞争者。</p><p><b>财报创历史新高</b></p><p>量价齐升:财报显示,台积电四季度的晶圆出货量3.7万片,环比增长2.2%;四季度台积电的晶圆平均出货价(等效12寸片)4,226美元/片,环比增长3.5%。</p><p>收入创新高:台积电第四季度营收为4381亿新台币(约合158.5亿美元),同比增长21.2%,较该公司的指导性预期高出1.1亿美元,连续第六个季度创纪录,全年收入达到史无前例的568.2亿美元,同比增长24.1%。表明用于智能手机和高性能电脑的最先进的5纳米芯片营收高于预期。</p><p>利润创新高:第四季度净利润为1662亿新台币(约合60.1亿美元),同比增长16.4%。超过分析师此前平均预期的1614亿新台币,并再创历史新高,每股摊薄EPS为新台币6.41元。</p><p>台积电2021年Q4的毛利率为52.7%,营业利润率为41.7%,净利润率为37.9%。</p><p><b>股价逆势大涨</b></p><p>1月13日,美国股市主要指数大幅收低,投资者获利了结,因多位美联储官员出面谈论通胀和加息。美国标准普尔500指数下跌1.4%,报4659.03点;道琼斯工业平均指数下跌0.5%,报36113.62点;纳斯达克综合指数下跌2.5%,报14806.81点。</p><p>而台积电则逆势高开近7%,开盘后涨幅扩大至接近10%,此后受累于美股半导体板块大跌,涨幅有所收窄,但收盘仍涨5.26%,报139.19美元,股价创历史新高,并大幅跑赢美股科技股及半导体板块。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea387346e7900d3bb944b8becfaa3aeb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>台积电走势图,来源: Investing.com</p><p>从2008年底至今,台积电上涨了接近23倍,这23倍涨幅的后面,是全球半导体产业深刻变局的十年,专业化分工进一步深化,晶圆代工成为IDM模式以外最大的受益者。伴随人类社会的数字化进程不断深化,从PC到智能手机再到自动驾驶跟万物互联,芯片作为数字化基底迎来爆发式增长,而且在可以想见的未来,在元宇宙时代,算力的不断提升会带来更大的芯片需求,这之中,作为全球晶圆代工的执牛耳者,台积电无疑是那个最大受益者之一。</p><p><b>周期红利</b></p><p>由于疫情和供应链的原因,目前全球半导体上下游都处于缺货状态,整个行业都在进行主动补库存,拉动了整个行业需求的增长,随之带来的是半导体大宗商品价格的上涨,导致台积电 (TW:2330)、三星电子 (KS:005930)、英伟达公司 (NASDAQ:NVDA)等晶圆厂商坐享量价齐升的库存周期红利。</p><p>同时各大厂商也在大规模的扩大产能。</p><p>2021年台积电的资本开支为303亿美金,展望2022年,公司维持全年capex指引为400-440亿美金,相较于去年提升100-140亿美金,同比增长33.3%-46.6%,资本开支的70-80%用于将继续用于先进制程(包括2/3/5/7nm)、10-20%用于特殊工艺(主要是成熟制程,公司重点扩产28nm,需求来源于多摄驱动的CIS以及非易失性存储器(NVM)等各领域需求,以及很多终端硅含量的提升)、10%用于先进封装。</p><p>可以看到台积电还将继续维持较高的资本开支增长,公司表示,扩产主要是因为5g及HPC应用带来多年结构性高增长趋势还会延续。</p><p><b>一季度业绩展望大幅超预期</b></p><p>根据公司目前的业务前景,管理层预计2022年第一季度销售额达166亿至172亿美元;这比分析师平均预估高出至少5%;未来几年营收平均增长15%-20%,高于此前测算;长期毛利率有望达到53%或更高;长期ROE预计高于25%。</p><p>通常来说,一季度是整个电子行业的淡季,但台积电一季度的营收罕见环比21年Q4增长,这一点非常超预期,这背后反映出芯片的需求仍然强劲。</p><p><b>技术面</b></p><p>从技术形态来看,虽然1月14日台积电的放巨量(成交量)并大幅上涨,但是却出现一个上影线很长的上吊线,而且并未完全突破前期高点的阻力,短线有回补之前缺口的可能。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70100e6f0d9861816c4528a435cf9a4e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"442\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>台积电日线图,来源: Investing.com</p><p><b>总结</b></p><p>全球处于新一轮创新周期的节点,算法、网络、算力有进一步提升,芯片架构、通讯技术和OS上都有新技术出现,如5G手机、新能源车、光伏,能源创新、元宇宙等都是基于半导体,所以它的需求会进一步加大。</p><p>比如去年台积电的汽车相关业务的收入同比增长了51%,预计这项业务今年将成为其增长最快的业务之一,因汽车业是全球芯片短缺的重灾区。</p><p>但也必须注意的是,随芯片短缺逐步缓解,供给端改善,“周期”的阶段也会陆续发生改变。IDC最近的一份报告显示,全球芯片市场预计到2022年中期将逐渐正常化并趋于平衡,2023年甚至可能出现产能过剩。专门从事芯片的咨询公司的Semiconductor Intelligence也预测,从 2023 年开始,全球芯片行业可能会出现下滑。</p><p>也就是说,短期来看,台积电等芯片巨头还将享受周期性的红利,不过市场预计周期拐点可能在2023年出现,若股市提前反映的话,台积电可能在2022年末或者下半年出现波动。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>周期拐点将至,台积电还能牛多久?</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n周期拐点将至,台积电还能牛多久?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/92\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/406e2b4996e14cd8a66a2a6864ef4313);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">英为财情Investing </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-01-14 18:40</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>1月13日,全球晶圆代工之王台积电发布了强劲的2021财年第四季度的财报,盘中一度创造新的历史纪录145美元,市值逼近7000亿美元,成为下一个进入万亿美元市值俱乐部的有力竞争者。</p><p><b>财报创历史新高</b></p><p>量价齐升:财报显示,台积电四季度的晶圆出货量3.7万片,环比增长2.2%;四季度台积电的晶圆平均出货价(等效12寸片)4,226美元/片,环比增长3.5%。</p><p>收入创新高:台积电第四季度营收为4381亿新台币(约合158.5亿美元),同比增长21.2%,较该公司的指导性预期高出1.1亿美元,连续第六个季度创纪录,全年收入达到史无前例的568.2亿美元,同比增长24.1%。表明用于智能手机和高性能电脑的最先进的5纳米芯片营收高于预期。</p><p>利润创新高:第四季度净利润为1662亿新台币(约合60.1亿美元),同比增长16.4%。超过分析师此前平均预期的1614亿新台币,并再创历史新高,每股摊薄EPS为新台币6.41元。</p><p>台积电2021年Q4的毛利率为52.7%,营业利润率为41.7%,净利润率为37.9%。</p><p><b>股价逆势大涨</b></p><p>1月13日,美国股市主要指数大幅收低,投资者获利了结,因多位美联储官员出面谈论通胀和加息。美国标准普尔500指数下跌1.4%,报4659.03点;道琼斯工业平均指数下跌0.5%,报36113.62点;纳斯达克综合指数下跌2.5%,报14806.81点。</p><p>而台积电则逆势高开近7%,开盘后涨幅扩大至接近10%,此后受累于美股半导体板块大跌,涨幅有所收窄,但收盘仍涨5.26%,报139.19美元,股价创历史新高,并大幅跑赢美股科技股及半导体板块。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea387346e7900d3bb944b8becfaa3aeb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>台积电走势图,来源: Investing.com</p><p>从2008年底至今,台积电上涨了接近23倍,这23倍涨幅的后面,是全球半导体产业深刻变局的十年,专业化分工进一步深化,晶圆代工成为IDM模式以外最大的受益者。伴随人类社会的数字化进程不断深化,从PC到智能手机再到自动驾驶跟万物互联,芯片作为数字化基底迎来爆发式增长,而且在可以想见的未来,在元宇宙时代,算力的不断提升会带来更大的芯片需求,这之中,作为全球晶圆代工的执牛耳者,台积电无疑是那个最大受益者之一。</p><p><b>周期红利</b></p><p>由于疫情和供应链的原因,目前全球半导体上下游都处于缺货状态,整个行业都在进行主动补库存,拉动了整个行业需求的增长,随之带来的是半导体大宗商品价格的上涨,导致台积电 (TW:2330)、三星电子 (KS:005930)、英伟达公司 (NASDAQ:NVDA)等晶圆厂商坐享量价齐升的库存周期红利。</p><p>同时各大厂商也在大规模的扩大产能。</p><p>2021年台积电的资本开支为303亿美金,展望2022年,公司维持全年capex指引为400-440亿美金,相较于去年提升100-140亿美金,同比增长33.3%-46.6%,资本开支的70-80%用于将继续用于先进制程(包括2/3/5/7nm)、10-20%用于特殊工艺(主要是成熟制程,公司重点扩产28nm,需求来源于多摄驱动的CIS以及非易失性存储器(NVM)等各领域需求,以及很多终端硅含量的提升)、10%用于先进封装。</p><p>可以看到台积电还将继续维持较高的资本开支增长,公司表示,扩产主要是因为5g及HPC应用带来多年结构性高增长趋势还会延续。</p><p><b>一季度业绩展望大幅超预期</b></p><p>根据公司目前的业务前景,管理层预计2022年第一季度销售额达166亿至172亿美元;这比分析师平均预估高出至少5%;未来几年营收平均增长15%-20%,高于此前测算;长期毛利率有望达到53%或更高;长期ROE预计高于25%。</p><p>通常来说,一季度是整个电子行业的淡季,但台积电一季度的营收罕见环比21年Q4增长,这一点非常超预期,这背后反映出芯片的需求仍然强劲。</p><p><b>技术面</b></p><p>从技术形态来看,虽然1月14日台积电的放巨量(成交量)并大幅上涨,但是却出现一个上影线很长的上吊线,而且并未完全突破前期高点的阻力,短线有回补之前缺口的可能。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70100e6f0d9861816c4528a435cf9a4e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"442\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>台积电日线图,来源: Investing.com</p><p><b>总结</b></p><p>全球处于新一轮创新周期的节点,算法、网络、算力有进一步提升,芯片架构、通讯技术和OS上都有新技术出现,如5G手机、新能源车、光伏,能源创新、元宇宙等都是基于半导体,所以它的需求会进一步加大。</p><p>比如去年台积电的汽车相关业务的收入同比增长了51%,预计这项业务今年将成为其增长最快的业务之一,因汽车业是全球芯片短缺的重灾区。</p><p>但也必须注意的是,随芯片短缺逐步缓解,供给端改善,“周期”的阶段也会陆续发生改变。IDC最近的一份报告显示,全球芯片市场预计到2022年中期将逐渐正常化并趋于平衡,2023年甚至可能出现产能过剩。专门从事芯片的咨询公司的Semiconductor Intelligence也预测,从 2023 年开始,全球芯片行业可能会出现下滑。</p><p>也就是说,短期来看,台积电等芯片巨头还将享受周期性的红利,不过市场预计周期拐点可能在2023年出现,若股市提前反映的话,台积电可能在2022年末或者下半年出现波动。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/975836d8c6eb511241583dccb0d387f2","relate_stocks":{"EWT":"台湾ETF-iShares MSCI","03145":"华夏亚洲高息股","TSM":"台积电","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4141":"半导体产品","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4526":"热门中概股","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4512":"苹果概念","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120168716","content_text":"1月13日,全球晶圆代工之王台积电发布了强劲的2021财年第四季度的财报,盘中一度创造新的历史纪录145美元,市值逼近7000亿美元,成为下一个进入万亿美元市值俱乐部的有力竞争者。财报创历史新高量价齐升:财报显示,台积电四季度的晶圆出货量3.7万片,环比增长2.2%;四季度台积电的晶圆平均出货价(等效12寸片)4,226美元/片,环比增长3.5%。收入创新高:台积电第四季度营收为4381亿新台币(约合158.5亿美元),同比增长21.2%,较该公司的指导性预期高出1.1亿美元,连续第六个季度创纪录,全年收入达到史无前例的568.2亿美元,同比增长24.1%。表明用于智能手机和高性能电脑的最先进的5纳米芯片营收高于预期。利润创新高:第四季度净利润为1662亿新台币(约合60.1亿美元),同比增长16.4%。超过分析师此前平均预期的1614亿新台币,并再创历史新高,每股摊薄EPS为新台币6.41元。台积电2021年Q4的毛利率为52.7%,营业利润率为41.7%,净利润率为37.9%。股价逆势大涨1月13日,美国股市主要指数大幅收低,投资者获利了结,因多位美联储官员出面谈论通胀和加息。美国标准普尔500指数下跌1.4%,报4659.03点;道琼斯工业平均指数下跌0.5%,报36113.62点;纳斯达克综合指数下跌2.5%,报14806.81点。而台积电则逆势高开近7%,开盘后涨幅扩大至接近10%,此后受累于美股半导体板块大跌,涨幅有所收窄,但收盘仍涨5.26%,报139.19美元,股价创历史新高,并大幅跑赢美股科技股及半导体板块。台积电走势图,来源: Investing.com从2008年底至今,台积电上涨了接近23倍,这23倍涨幅的后面,是全球半导体产业深刻变局的十年,专业化分工进一步深化,晶圆代工成为IDM模式以外最大的受益者。伴随人类社会的数字化进程不断深化,从PC到智能手机再到自动驾驶跟万物互联,芯片作为数字化基底迎来爆发式增长,而且在可以想见的未来,在元宇宙时代,算力的不断提升会带来更大的芯片需求,这之中,作为全球晶圆代工的执牛耳者,台积电无疑是那个最大受益者之一。周期红利由于疫情和供应链的原因,目前全球半导体上下游都处于缺货状态,整个行业都在进行主动补库存,拉动了整个行业需求的增长,随之带来的是半导体大宗商品价格的上涨,导致台积电 (TW:2330)、三星电子 (KS:005930)、英伟达公司 (NASDAQ:NVDA)等晶圆厂商坐享量价齐升的库存周期红利。同时各大厂商也在大规模的扩大产能。2021年台积电的资本开支为303亿美金,展望2022年,公司维持全年capex指引为400-440亿美金,相较于去年提升100-140亿美金,同比增长33.3%-46.6%,资本开支的70-80%用于将继续用于先进制程(包括2/3/5/7nm)、10-20%用于特殊工艺(主要是成熟制程,公司重点扩产28nm,需求来源于多摄驱动的CIS以及非易失性存储器(NVM)等各领域需求,以及很多终端硅含量的提升)、10%用于先进封装。可以看到台积电还将继续维持较高的资本开支增长,公司表示,扩产主要是因为5g及HPC应用带来多年结构性高增长趋势还会延续。一季度业绩展望大幅超预期根据公司目前的业务前景,管理层预计2022年第一季度销售额达166亿至172亿美元;这比分析师平均预估高出至少5%;未来几年营收平均增长15%-20%,高于此前测算;长期毛利率有望达到53%或更高;长期ROE预计高于25%。通常来说,一季度是整个电子行业的淡季,但台积电一季度的营收罕见环比21年Q4增长,这一点非常超预期,这背后反映出芯片的需求仍然强劲。技术面从技术形态来看,虽然1月14日台积电的放巨量(成交量)并大幅上涨,但是却出现一个上影线很长的上吊线,而且并未完全突破前期高点的阻力,短线有回补之前缺口的可能。台积电日线图,来源: Investing.com总结全球处于新一轮创新周期的节点,算法、网络、算力有进一步提升,芯片架构、通讯技术和OS上都有新技术出现,如5G手机、新能源车、光伏,能源创新、元宇宙等都是基于半导体,所以它的需求会进一步加大。比如去年台积电的汽车相关业务的收入同比增长了51%,预计这项业务今年将成为其增长最快的业务之一,因汽车业是全球芯片短缺的重灾区。但也必须注意的是,随芯片短缺逐步缓解,供给端改善,“周期”的阶段也会陆续发生改变。IDC最近的一份报告显示,全球芯片市场预计到2022年中期将逐渐正常化并趋于平衡,2023年甚至可能出现产能过剩。专门从事芯片的咨询公司的Semiconductor Intelligence也预测,从 2023 年开始,全球芯片行业可能会出现下滑。也就是说,短期来看,台积电等芯片巨头还将享受周期性的红利,不过市场预计周期拐点可能在2023年出现,若股市提前反映的话,台积电可能在2022年末或者下半年出现波动。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":982,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":846733089,"gmtCreate":1636112452245,"gmtModify":1636112452245,"author":{"id":"3482738579178311","authorId":"3482738579178311","authorIdStr":"3482738579178311","name":"59743654","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/REGN\">$Regeneron Pharmaceuticals(REGN)$</a>口服药物效果差作为补充没什么问题。作为主力不可能","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/REGN\">$Regeneron Pharmaceuticals(REGN)$</a>口服药物效果差作为补充没什么问题。作为主力不可能","text":"$Regeneron Pharmaceuticals(REGN)$口服药物效果差作为补充没什么问题。作为主力不可能","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/846733089","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1916,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":825375370,"gmtCreate":1634206047480,"gmtModify":1634206315096,"author":{"id":"3482738579178311","authorId":"3482738579178311","authorIdStr":"3482738579178311","name":"59743654","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"最简单的方法,对于你追我赶的两个寡头。。两头下注。。根本没其他人来分利润。","listText":"最简单的方法,对于你追我赶的两个寡头。。两头下注。。根本没其他人来分利润。","text":"最简单的方法,对于你追我赶的两个寡头。。两头下注。。根本没其他人来分利润。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/825375370","repostId":"2175193456","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2175193456","pubTimestamp":1634199362,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2175193456?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-14 16:16","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"台积电3nm、2nm工艺放缓 Intel追上来了:2025年决战","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2175193456","media":"快科技","summary":"台积电的放缓给了三星及Intel追赶的机会,按照Intel规划的路线图,他们在2024年要量产20A工艺,大概相当于2nm工艺,2025年还会量产在下一代的18A工艺。总的来说,台积电现在的小日子很不错,但是未来几年里要面临对手加速追赶的压力,Intel CEO基辛格喊出未来几年恢复半导体领导地位的口号不是空话,2025年左右会有一场决战。","content":"<html><body><article><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>今天发布了Q3季度财报,营收为4147亿元新台币(约合148亿美元),同比增长16.3%。<span>净利润</span>为净利润1563亿新台币(约合55.6亿美元/358亿人民币),同比增长13.8%,业绩很好很强大。</p><p>这两年台积电靠着先进工艺抢占了全球半导体晶圆代工市场的份额,第三季度5nm芯片出货量占晶圆总收入的18%,7nm占34%,这两种工艺就贡献了52%的收入,在这方面能打的对手一个都没有,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">三星</a>及Intel都要落后很多。</p><p>不过,对台积电来说,眼下的日子好过,未来几年的隐忧还是少不了的,危机早就在埋伏中了。</p><p>台积电这几年业绩大涨是在对手工艺进展落后的情况下实现的,<strong>但是台积电7nm节点开始晶圆成本就降不下来了,5nm成本更高,接下来的3nm升级周期也延长到了2.5年,功耗、密度缩放得更差,2nm工艺要到2025年了。</strong></p><p>台积电的放缓给了三星及Intel追赶的机会,按照Intel规划的路线图,他们在2024年要量产20A工艺,大概相当于2nm工艺,2025年还会量产在下一代的18A工艺。</p><p><strong>从20A工艺开始,Intel还会放弃FinFET工艺,升级两大革命性新技术——RibbonFET及PowerVia。</strong></p><img src=\"http://inews.gtimg.com/newsapp_match/0/13862875029/0\"/><p>根据Intel所说,RibbonFET是Intel对Gate All Around晶体管的实现,它将成为公司自2011年率先推出FinFET以来的首个全新晶体管架构。该技术加快了晶体管开关速度,同时实现与多鳍结构相同的驱动电流,但占用的空间更小。</p><p>PowerVia是Intel独有的、业界首个背面电能传输网络,通过消除晶圆正面供电布线需求来优化信号传输。</p><p>总的来说,台积电现在的小日子很不错,但是未来几年里要面临对手加速追赶的压力,<strong>Intel CEO基辛格喊出未来几年恢复半导体领导地位的口号不是空话,2025年左右会有一场决战。</strong></p><img src=\"http://inews.gtimg.com/newsapp_match/0/11958451898/0\"/></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>台积电3nm、2nm工艺放缓 Intel追上来了:2025年决战</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; 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href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202110141617397c473771&s=b><strong>快科技</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>台积电今天发布了Q3季度财报,营收为4147亿元新台币(约合148亿美元),同比增长16.3%。净利润为净利润1563亿新台币(约合55.6亿美元/358亿人民币),同比增长13.8%,业绩很好很强大。这两年台积电靠着先进工艺抢占了全球半导体晶圆代工市场的份额,第三季度5nm芯片出货量占晶圆总收入的18%,7nm占34%,这两种工艺就贡献了52%的收入,在这方面能打的对手一个都没有,三星及...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202110141617397c473771&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/975836d8c6eb511241583dccb0d387f2","relate_stocks":{"INTC":"英特尔","EWT":"台湾ETF-iShares 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