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赌搏
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IP属地:浙江
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赌搏
10-29
财报: 1017,TSM、NFLX 1023,TSLA 1029,GOOGL、AMD 1030,MSFT、META 1031,AAPL、AMZN、INTC 1106,QCOM、ARM 1120,NVDA
赌搏
08-16
$短期VIX期货ETN(VXX)$
又一次栽在vxx这里。 祖训:绝对不要试图抄底vxx,以及类似的中长期不断走弱的标的物,最好是彻底远离、不要交易它们,管它涨与跌。
赌搏
07-24
主要名单: SPY, QQQ, SPX, IWM, MSFT, AAPL, GOOGL, AMZN, META, TSLA, NVDA, AVGO
赌搏
04-09
只要不离开台桌、不停止交易,就还有可能。
赌搏
03-27
要勇敢地承认自己判断的不对、运气不好,并坚决止损,不要执着于一定要回本,不可以有完美主义,而是努力做到大赚小亏,亏损是交易的一部分。
赌搏
03-14
预计0-5天内会上涨,买当周-1.5个月内的杠杆合理的期权,计算好亏的概率不能偏大,赚最好能吃一个小波段,评估好卖出的时机,卖掉之后,继续寻找等待下一个机会……复利
赌搏
03-10
NQ100前十名的权重之和 8.61+7.44+6.48+5.17+5.12+4.81+4.44+2.54+2.50+2.43=49.54%
赌搏
02-16
自诩专家的、招摇撞骗的、神经不正常的,看到了一般就会拉黑,你不要在我眼前晃
赌搏
2022-09-22
金钱永不眠,但赢家很少,9亏1赚,你是那10%吗?就好比高考你能考上全省前1%或985吗? 或许做点啥都比炒股强,脚踏实地的做人,千万不要地命海心,只有大专的实力却整天幻想会考上985,在股市白白葬送了大好青春和大把的金钱。 市场总是会沿着与90%的人的理解和行动的方向相反的方向前进。 唯有4个大字:及早离去。
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
$NQ100指数主连 2212(NQmain)$
$道琼斯(.DJI)$
赌搏
00:27
$BRK.B 20250117 470.0 CALL$
450.5
赌搏
12-20
$伯克希尔B(BRK.B)$
闪电十几连鞭了,比马保国都厉害!
赌搏
12-20
$SHW 20250117 360.0 CALL$
343.9
赌搏
12-19
🐂
英伟达估值或将突破5万亿美元,分析师看好前景
赌搏
12-19
$拼多多(PDD)$
再猛,也能通过时间,把你砸下来
赌搏
12-19
2030 spx 13000点
Warren Buffett Owns 1 Vanguard Index Fund That Could Soar 147%, According to a Top Wall Street Analyst
赌搏
12-19
$腾讯控股(00700)$
但随趋势,莫问前程
赌搏
12-19
$TSLA 20241220 450.0 CALL$
1
赌搏
12-19
$SPX 20241220 5950.0 PUT$
。。。
赌搏
12-18
当然是A股大牛市啊 😅
危险信号正在积聚,2025美股泡沫是否一戳即破?
赌搏
12-18
this is my house
特斯拉努力避免因取消马斯克的薪酬方案而付出高昂代价
赌搏
12-18
$伯克希尔B(BRK.B)$
今天至少收阳线吧,真的太弱了。。
赌搏
12-18
$AVGO 20241227 250.0 CALL$
236
赌搏
12-17
$伯克希尔B(BRK.B)$
百年未有之大跌不止,而且全是阴线
$道琼斯(.DJI)$
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
赌搏
12-17
$伯克希尔B(BRK.B)$
真特么。。、
赌搏
12-17
$BRK.B 20250117 480.0 CALL$
455
赌搏
12-17
$伯克希尔B(BRK.B)$
希望这是最后一跌了,不要再跌了,该反弹了
赌搏
12-17
$BRK.B 20250117 480.0 CALL$
457.15
赌搏
12-14
$BRK.B 20250117 480.0 CALL$
韭特,老登,被你坑惨了。。。
赌搏
12-14
$老虎证券(TIGR)$
异军突起!
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VXX\">$短期VIX期货ETN(VXX)$ </a> 又一次栽在vxx这里。 祖训:绝对不要试图抄底vxx,以及类似的中长期不断走弱的标的物,最好是彻底远离、不要交易它们,管它涨与跌。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VXX\">$短期VIX期货ETN(VXX)$ </a> 又一次栽在vxx这里。 祖训:绝对不要试图抄底vxx,以及类似的中长期不断走弱的标的物,最好是彻底远离、不要交易它们,管它涨与跌。","text":"$短期VIX期货ETN(VXX)$ 又一次栽在vxx这里。 祖训:绝对不要试图抄底vxx,以及类似的中长期不断走弱的标的物,最好是彻底远离、不要交易它们,管它涨与跌。","images":[],"top":2,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/339200909951040","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4749,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":330646382628904,"gmtCreate":1721754653961,"gmtModify":1721754656991,"author":{"id":"3463446769405484","authorId":"3463446769405484","name":"赌搏","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b84db6b69ddd9a2009dd889301c66ea5","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3463446769405484","idStr":"3463446769405484"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"主要名单: SPY, QQQ, SPX, IWM, MSFT, AAPL, GOOGL, AMZN, META, TSLA, NVDA, AVGO","listText":"主要名单: SPY, QQQ, SPX, IWM, MSFT, AAPL, GOOGL, AMZN, META, TSLA, NVDA, AVGO","text":"主要名单: SPY, QQQ, SPX, IWM, MSFT, AAPL, GOOGL, AMZN, META, TSLA, NVDA, 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8.61+7.44+6.48+5.17+5.12+4.81+4.44+2.54+2.50+2.43=49.54%","listText":"NQ100前十名的权重之和 8.61+7.44+6.48+5.17+5.12+4.81+4.44+2.54+2.50+2.43=49.54%","text":"NQ100前十名的权重之和 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闪电十几连鞭了,比马保国都厉害!","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b004afefdda5c24b0880f571fda20f3","width":"1080","height":"2299"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/383647364034608","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":169,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":383327661765024,"gmtCreate":1734627136397,"gmtModify":1734630714297,"author":{"id":"3463446769405484","authorId":"3463446769405484","name":"赌搏","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b84db6b69ddd9a2009dd889301c66ea5","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3463446769405484","idStr":"3463446769405484"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/SHW 20250117 360.0 CALL\">$SHW 20250117 360.0 CALL$ </a> 343.9","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/SHW 20250117 360.0 CALL\">$SHW 20250117 360.0 CALL$ </a> 343.9","text":"$SHW 20250117 360.0 CALL$ 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08:07","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"英伟达估值或将突破5万亿美元,分析师看好前景","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2492161861","media":"FX168","summary":"近期,关于英伟达的消息在市场引发不小波澜。据报道,北京方面正在对英伟达展开反垄断调查。如果最终认定违规,英伟达可能面临高达10亿美元的罚款。这一消息引发了市场震动,自11月初创下历史高点以来,英伟达股价已累计下跌12%,其中过去一周下滑了5%。总的来说,尽管短期面临挑战,英伟达凭借持续的技术创新和市场需求,仍有望实现长期增长,甚至可能突破5万亿美元的估值。","content":"<html><body><div>\n<p><span>FX168财经报社(北美)讯</span> <span>在新的一周里,华尔街的宠儿<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>再度引发市场看涨情绪。</span></p>\n<p><span>近日,Wedbush分析师Dan Ives与雅虎财经执行编辑Brian Sozzi共同参与了《Opening Bid》播客访谈,就英伟达的未来前景展开讨论。</span></p>\n<p><span>近期,关于英伟达的消息在市场引发不小波澜。据报道,北京方面正在对英伟达展开反垄断调查。如果最终认定违规,英伟达可能面临高达10亿美元的罚款。</span></p>\n<p><span>这一消息引发了市场震动,自11月初创下历史高点以来,英伟达股价已累计下跌12%,其中过去一周下滑了5%。</span></p>\n<p><span>尽管如此,Dan Ives对这一困境持乐观态度。他在采访中表示:“我更关注眼前重要的事情,比如早上的卡布奇诺是否是热的。”</span></p>\n<p><span>他用这番幽默的话回应了市场的担忧,强调自己更关注公司的长期发展,而非短期波动。他指出:“空头们总是专注于任何可能引发恐慌的消息,但这些都不足以改变大局。”</span></p>\n<p><span>刚从亚洲考察归来的Ives分享了一些积极的见解。他提到,英伟达的需求远远超出供应,比例高达15:1。“你觉得一场反垄断调查会阻挡英伟达的脚步吗?”他反问道。</span></p>\n<p><span>Ives将英伟达的现状比喻为一场通宵派对:“以前,派对通常在晚上9点开始,而现在,它会一直持续到凌晨4点。”</span></p>\n<p><span>虽然期间可能会有些紧张时刻,比如听到警笛声,但他认为这不过是长期增长中的小波折。“我们还处于英伟达十年增长蓝图的第二年,”他说。</span></p>\n<p><span>今年以来,英伟达的股价表现令人瞩目,公司已跻身全球市值最高企业之列。与此同时,加密货币行业对英伟达服务器的强劲需求进一步提升了公司的声誉。</span></p>\n<p><span>美国银行分析师Vivek Arya指出,英伟达的产品升级速度令人惊叹,其即将推出的Blackwell和Rubin GPU预计将于2025年第三季度上市,进一步巩固其市场地位。</span></p>\n<p><span>总的来说,尽管短期面临挑战,英伟达凭借持续的技术创新和市场需求,仍有望实现长期增长,甚至可能突破5万亿美元的估值。</span></p>\n</div></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta 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float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n英伟达估值或将突破5万亿美元,分析师看好前景\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1059947868\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a80f9d4086d7680bdea6ba04addf782);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">FX168 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-12-19 08:07</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><body><div>\n<p><span>FX168财经报社(北美)讯</span> <span>在新的一周里,华尔街的宠儿<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>再度引发市场看涨情绪。</span></p>\n<p><span>近日,Wedbush分析师Dan Ives与雅虎财经执行编辑Brian Sozzi共同参与了《Opening Bid》播客访谈,就英伟达的未来前景展开讨论。</span></p>\n<p><span>近期,关于英伟达的消息在市场引发不小波澜。据报道,北京方面正在对英伟达展开反垄断调查。如果最终认定违规,英伟达可能面临高达10亿美元的罚款。</span></p>\n<p><span>这一消息引发了市场震动,自11月初创下历史高点以来,英伟达股价已累计下跌12%,其中过去一周下滑了5%。</span></p>\n<p><span>尽管如此,Dan Ives对这一困境持乐观态度。他在采访中表示:“我更关注眼前重要的事情,比如早上的卡布奇诺是否是热的。”</span></p>\n<p><span>他用这番幽默的话回应了市场的担忧,强调自己更关注公司的长期发展,而非短期波动。他指出:“空头们总是专注于任何可能引发恐慌的消息,但这些都不足以改变大局。”</span></p>\n<p><span>刚从亚洲考察归来的Ives分享了一些积极的见解。他提到,英伟达的需求远远超出供应,比例高达15:1。“你觉得一场反垄断调查会阻挡英伟达的脚步吗?”他反问道。</span></p>\n<p><span>Ives将英伟达的现状比喻为一场通宵派对:“以前,派对通常在晚上9点开始,而现在,它会一直持续到凌晨4点。”</span></p>\n<p><span>虽然期间可能会有些紧张时刻,比如听到警笛声,但他认为这不过是长期增长中的小波折。“我们还处于英伟达十年增长蓝图的第二年,”他说。</span></p>\n<p><span>今年以来,英伟达的股价表现令人瞩目,公司已跻身全球市值最高企业之列。与此同时,加密货币行业对英伟达服务器的强劲需求进一步提升了公司的声誉。</span></p>\n<p><span>美国银行分析师Vivek Arya指出,英伟达的产品升级速度令人惊叹,其即将推出的Blackwell和Rubin GPU预计将于2025年第三季度上市,进一步巩固其市场地位。</span></p>\n<p><span>总的来说,尽管短期面临挑战,英伟达凭借持续的技术创新和市场需求,仍有望实现长期增长,甚至可能突破5万亿美元的估值。</span></p>\n</div></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU2125909916.SGD":"Natixis Thematics Safety R/A SGD","LU0048584097.USD":"FIDELITY FUNDS GLOBAL THEMATIC OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0964807845.USD":"ALLIANZ INCOME & GROWTH \"A\" 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Bid》播客访谈,就英伟达的未来前景展开讨论。\n近期,关于英伟达的消息在市场引发不小波澜。据报道,北京方面正在对英伟达展开反垄断调查。如果最终认定违规,英伟达可能面临高达10亿美元的罚款。\n这一消息引发了市场震动,自11月初创下历史高点以来,英伟达股价已累计下跌12%,其中过去一周下滑了5%。\n尽管如此,Dan Ives对这一困境持乐观态度。他在采访中表示:“我更关注眼前重要的事情,比如早上的卡布奇诺是否是热的。”\n他用这番幽默的话回应了市场的担忧,强调自己更关注公司的长期发展,而非短期波动。他指出:“空头们总是专注于任何可能引发恐慌的消息,但这些都不足以改变大局。”\n刚从亚洲考察归来的Ives分享了一些积极的见解。他提到,英伟达的需求远远超出供应,比例高达15:1。“你觉得一场反垄断调查会阻挡英伟达的脚步吗?”他反问道。\nIves将英伟达的现状比喻为一场通宵派对:“以前,派对通常在晚上9点开始,而现在,它会一直持续到凌晨4点。”\n虽然期间可能会有些紧张时刻,比如听到警笛声,但他认为这不过是长期增长中的小波折。“我们还处于英伟达十年增长蓝图的第二年,”他说。\n今年以来,英伟达的股价表现令人瞩目,公司已跻身全球市值最高企业之列。与此同时,加密货币行业对英伟达服务器的强劲需求进一步提升了公司的声誉。\n美国银行分析师Vivek Arya指出,英伟达的产品升级速度令人惊叹,其即将推出的Blackwell和Rubin 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再猛,也能通过时间,把你砸下来","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b95fc206092256aa7a52a17cc4c62537","width":"1080","height":"2299"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/383294199726088","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":359,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":383286940516536,"gmtCreate":1734606173069,"gmtModify":1734606175296,"author":{"id":"3463446769405484","authorId":"3463446769405484","name":"赌搏","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b84db6b69ddd9a2009dd889301c66ea5","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3463446769405484","idStr":"3463446769405484"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"2030 spx 13000点","listText":"2030 spx 13000点","text":"2030 spx 13000点","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/383286940516536","repostId":"2492442501","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2492442501","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1734598020,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2492442501?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-12-19 16:47","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"Warren Buffett Owns 1 Vanguard Index Fund That Could Soar 147%, According to a Top Wall Street Analyst","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2492442501","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Warren Buffett says most investors would be better off buying exchange-traded funds instead of picking individual stocks themselves.His Berkshire Hathaway investment company holds two ETFs that directly track the performance of the S&P 500.According to Tom Lee of Fundstrat Global Advisors, the S&P 500 could soar 147% by 2030.","content":"<html><body><ul>\n<li>\n<div>\n<svg fill=\"none\" height=\"15\" viewbox=\"0 0 14 15\" width=\"14\" xmlns=\"http://www.w3.org/2000/svg\">\n<path d=\"M14 5.58984C14 2.91016 11.8398 0.75 9.16016 0.75C6.50781 0.777344 4.375 2.91016 4.375 5.5625C4.375 6.10938 4.45703 6.60156 4.59375 7.09375L0.191406 11.4961C0.0546875 11.6328 0 11.7969 0 11.9609V14.0938C0 14.4766 0.273438 14.75 0.65625 14.75H3.71875C4.07422 14.75 4.375 14.4766 4.375 14.0938V13H5.46875C5.82422 13 6.125 12.7266 6.125 12.3438V11.25H7.13672C7.30078 11.25 7.51953 11.168 7.62891 11.0312L8.28516 10.293C8.55859 10.3477 8.85938 10.375 9.1875 10.375C11.8398 10.375 14 8.24219 14 5.58984ZM9.1875 4.25C9.1875 3.53906 9.76172 2.9375 10.5 2.9375C11.2109 2.9375 11.8125 3.53906 11.8125 4.25C11.8125 4.98828 11.2109 5.5625 10.5 5.5625C9.76172 5.5625 9.1875 4.98828 9.1875 4.25Z\" fill=\"#FFB81C\"></path>\n</svg>\n</div>\n<div>Warren Buffett says most investors would be better off buying exchange-traded funds (ETFs) instead of picking individual stocks themselves. </div>\n</li>\n<li>\n<div>\n<svg fill=\"none\" height=\"15\" viewbox=\"0 0 14 15\" width=\"14\" xmlns=\"http://www.w3.org/2000/svg\">\n<path d=\"M14 5.58984C14 2.91016 11.8398 0.75 9.16016 0.75C6.50781 0.777344 4.375 2.91016 4.375 5.5625C4.375 6.10938 4.45703 6.60156 4.59375 7.09375L0.191406 11.4961C0.0546875 11.6328 0 11.7969 0 11.9609V14.0938C0 14.4766 0.273438 14.75 0.65625 14.75H3.71875C4.07422 14.75 4.375 14.4766 4.375 14.0938V13H5.46875C5.82422 13 6.125 12.7266 6.125 12.3438V11.25H7.13672C7.30078 11.25 7.51953 11.168 7.62891 11.0312L8.28516 10.293C8.55859 10.3477 8.85938 10.375 9.1875 10.375C11.8398 10.375 14 8.24219 14 5.58984ZM9.1875 4.25C9.1875 3.53906 9.76172 2.9375 10.5 2.9375C11.2109 2.9375 11.8125 3.53906 11.8125 4.25C11.8125 4.98828 11.2109 5.5625 10.5 5.5625C9.76172 5.5625 9.1875 4.98828 9.1875 4.25Z\" fill=\"#FFB81C\"></path>\n</svg>\n</div>\n<div>His Berkshire Hathaway investment company holds two ETFs that directly track the performance of the S&P 500. </div>\n</li>\n<li>\n<div>\n<svg fill=\"none\" height=\"15\" viewbox=\"0 0 14 15\" width=\"14\" xmlns=\"http://www.w3.org/2000/svg\">\n<path d=\"M14 5.58984C14 2.91016 11.8398 0.75 9.16016 0.75C6.50781 0.777344 4.375 2.91016 4.375 5.5625C4.375 6.10938 4.45703 6.60156 4.59375 7.09375L0.191406 11.4961C0.0546875 11.6328 0 11.7969 0 11.9609V14.0938C0 14.4766 0.273438 14.75 0.65625 14.75H3.71875C4.07422 14.75 4.375 14.4766 4.375 14.0938V13H5.46875C5.82422 13 6.125 12.7266 6.125 12.3438V11.25H7.13672C7.30078 11.25 7.51953 11.168 7.62891 11.0312L8.28516 10.293C8.55859 10.3477 8.85938 10.375 9.1875 10.375C11.8398 10.375 14 8.24219 14 5.58984ZM9.1875 4.25C9.1875 3.53906 9.76172 2.9375 10.5 2.9375C11.2109 2.9375 11.8125 3.53906 11.8125 4.25C11.8125 4.98828 11.2109 5.5625 10.5 5.5625C9.76172 5.5625 9.1875 4.98828 9.1875 4.25Z\" fill=\"#FFB81C\"></path>\n</svg>\n</div>\n<div>According to Tom Lee of Fundstrat Global Advisors, the S&P 500 could soar 147% by 2030. </div>\n</li>\n</ul><div><p>Warren Buffett is the CEO of <strong>Berkshire Hathaway </strong><span>(NYSE: BRK.A)</span><span>(NYSE: BRK.B)</span>, where he oversees a $299 billion portfolio of publicly traded stocks and securities. The investment conglomerate also wholly owns several private businesses, and it has a $325 billion cash pile, which Buffett and his team can put to work when they spot new opportunities. </p><p>Since Buffett became CEO in 1965, his investment decisions have contributed to a compound annual return of 19.8% in Berkshire stock. The <strong>S&P 500</strong> <span>(^GSPC<span> -2.95%</span>)</span> delivered an average annual return of 10.3% over the same period, so Berkshire is crushing the broader market. </p><p>Buffett is a full-time investing professional. He knows average retail investors would struggle to replicate his success, so he often recommends they buy exchange-traded funds (ETFs) instead. Berkshire actually holds two of them in its portfolio: The<strong> Vanguard S&P 500 ETF</strong> <span>(VOO<span> -2.94%</span>)</span> and the <strong>SPDR S&P 500 Investment Trust</strong>. </p><p>Both funds directly track the performance of the S&P 500, but the Vanguard ETF might be the better choice because of its lower cost. According to a forecast from a top Wall Street analyst, investors who buy the ETF today could earn a whopping 147% gain by 2030.</p><div><img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F801250%2Fa-candid-shot-of-warren-buffett-looking-away-from-the-camera.jpg&op=resize&w=700\" srcset=\"https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A//g.foolcdn.com/editorial/images/801250/a-candid-shot-of-warren-buffett-looking-away-from-the-camera.jpg&w=300&op=resize 300w, https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A//g.foolcdn.com/editorial/images/801250/a-candid-shot-of-warren-buffett-looking-away-from-the-camera.jpg&w=1000&op=resize 1000w, https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A//g.foolcdn.com/editorial/images/801250/a-candid-shot-of-warren-buffett-looking-away-from-the-camera.jpg&w=2000&op=resize 2000w\"/><p>Image source: The Motley Fool.</p></div><h2>A great ETF for long-term investors of all skill levels</h2><p>The S&P 500 has very strict entry criteria. Companies must be profitable on a trailing 12-month basis to qualify for inclusion, and their market capitalization must be at least $18 billion. Even then, a special committee meets once per quarter to decide which companies should be included, which ensures that only the highest-quality names make the cut.</p><div><div><div></div></div></div><p>Since the S&P is home to 500 companies from 11 different sectors, it's the most diversified of the major U.S. stock market indexes. The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF holds the same stocks and maintains similar weightings, which is how it tracks the performance of the index.</p><p>The ETF has an expense ratio of just 0.03%, which is the proportion of the fund deducted each year to cover management costs. It's one of the cheapest ETFs in the world. In comparison, the SPDR S&P 500 Investment Trust has an expense ratio of 0.09%, which makes it three times more expensive to own. A higher expense ratio can detract from investors' returns over the long run.</p><div></div><h2>Exposure to tech giants like Nvidia, Apple, and Microsoft</h2><p>The S&P 500 is weighted by market capitalization, so the largest companies in the index have a greater influence over its performance than the smallest do. Since the information technology sector is home to more trillion-dollar companies than any other, it has a weighting of 31.3%, which is the highest in the S&P 500. </p><p>The three largest companies in the S&P 500 have a combined market capitalization of $10.4 trillion, and each of them is in the information technology sector:</p><div><div><div></div></div></div><div><table><thead><tr><th><p>Stock</p></th><th><p>Vanguard S&P 500 ETF Portfolio Weighting</p></th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td><p>1. <strong>Apple </strong><span>(NASDAQ: AAPL)</span><strong></strong></p></td><td><p>7.06%</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>2. <strong>Nvidia </strong><span>(NASDAQ: NVDA)</span><strong></strong></p></td><td><p>6.66%</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>3. <strong>Microsoft </strong><span>(NASDAQ: MSFT)</span><strong></strong></p></td><td><p>6.16%</p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><p>Data source: Vanguard. Portfolio weightings are accurate as of Nov. 30, 2024, and are subject to change.</p><p>Those three companies have different business models, but they're all betting big on artificial intelligence (AI). Apple recently launched its Apple Intelligence software for users of the latest iPhones, iPads, and Mac computers. It unleashes new writing tools that can instantly summarize emails and text messages, and it can even proofread or rewrite outgoing text content. Apple Intelligence also empowers the Siri voice assistant with new capabilities, thanks to an integration with OpenAI's ChatGPT software. </p><p>Nvidia, on the other hand, is the leading supplier of graphics processors (GPUs) for the data center, which are used in AI development. The company just started shipping its highly anticipated Blackwell chips, which will help businesses build and deploy the most advanced AI models to date. Blackwell sales are expected to ramp up significantly in 2025, which is why I think Nvidia will be a top-performing stock next year.</p><p>Microsoft is investing heavily in everything from AI data centers to software applications. The company's Azure cloud platform is now a go-to destination for developers seeking computing capacity and ready-made large language models (LLMs) to build their own AI software.</p><div><div><div></div></div></div><p>But the S&P 500 isn't all about tech. The index holds Berkshire Hathaway stock, and a number of other prominent non-technology stocks like <strong>JP Morgan Chase</strong>,<strong> Eli Lilly</strong>, <strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/V\">Visa</a></strong>, <strong>Costco</strong>, <strong>Walmart</strong>, and more.</p><div><img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F801250%2Fa-bull-figurine-placed-in-front-of-stock-charts.jpg&op=resize&w=700\" srcset=\"https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A//g.foolcdn.com/editorial/images/801250/a-bull-figurine-placed-in-front-of-stock-charts.jpg&w=300&op=resize 300w, https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A//g.foolcdn.com/editorial/images/801250/a-bull-figurine-placed-in-front-of-stock-charts.jpg&w=1000&op=resize 1000w, https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A//g.foolcdn.com/editorial/images/801250/a-bull-figurine-placed-in-front-of-stock-charts.jpg&w=2000&op=resize 2000w\"/><p>Image source: Getty Images.</p></div><h2>Potential upside of 147% by 2030</h2><p>Wall Street doesn't always get things right, so investors should never hang their hats on the word of any analyst. But Tom Lee from Fundstrat Global Advisors made some incredibly accurate predictions for the S&P 500 over the last couple of years, so it's worth keeping his forecasts in mind.</p><p>He said the S&P 500 would rise to 4,750 in 2023 while most other analysts were cautious, and the index closed the year at 4,769. The S&P 500 has also surpassed four of his 2024 targets (5,200, 5,500, 5,700, and 6,000) already. He swung for the fences one last time earlier this month, saying the S&P 500 could hit 6,300 by year-end. With two weeks left, it will need to rise by another 3.7% to get there.</p><div><app :collapse_on_load=\"false\" :instrument_id=\"220472\" :show_benchmark_compare=\"false\" amount_change=\"-178.45\" average_volume=\"\" company_name=\"S&P 500 Index\" current_price=\"5872.16\" daily_high=\"6070.67\" daily_low=\"5867.79\" default_period=\"FiveYear\" dividend_yield=\"N/A\" exchange=\"SNPINDEX\" fifty_two_week_high=\"6099.97\" fifty_two_week_low=\"4682.11\" gross_margin=\"0.00\" logo=\"https://g.foolcdn.com/art/companylogos/mark/^GSPC.png\" market_cap=\"\" pe_ratio=\"\" percent_change=\"-2.95\" symbol=\"^GSPC\" volume=\"3,301,322,111\"></app></div><p>But Lee came out with a long-term target for the S&P 500 earlier this year, predicting it will hit 15,000 by 2030. That implies an upside of 147% from where it trades today, which is the return investors can expect from the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF if he's right.</p><div><div><div></div></div></div><p>Lee says millennials and Gen Zers are about to enter the prime period of their careers (between ages 30 and 50). That's when people usually earn the most money and make big life decisions like investing, which could be a tailwind for the S&P 500.</p><p>Lee also believes AI will contribute to the potential upside. Companies are likely to pour trillions of dollars into machine learning and automation to solve global workforce shortages in the coming years, which could drive a productivity boom. </p><p>Of course, there are risks to Lee's forecast. A global economic shock like another pandemic or a financial crisis could delay the S&P 500 on its journey to 15,000 by several years. Plus, AI might fail to live up to the hype, which would cause companies like Nvidia to lose significant amounts of their value.</p><p>But even if the S&P 500 doesn't reach 15,000 by 2030, history suggests it's likely to get there eventually. As a result, investors should consider taking Warren Buffett's advice and buy the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF for the long term anyway.</p><div></div></div></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Warren Buffett Owns 1 Vanguard Index Fund That Could Soar 147%, According to a Top Wall Street Analyst</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWarren Buffett Owns 1 Vanguard Index Fund That Could Soar 147%, According to a Top Wall Street Analyst\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-12-19 16:47 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/12/19/warren-buffett-1-vanguard-fund-soar-147-wall-stree/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Warren Buffett says most investors would be better off buying exchange-traded funds (ETFs) instead of picking individual stocks themselves. \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nHis Berkshire Hathaway investment company holds two ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/12/19/warren-buffett-1-vanguard-fund-soar-147-wall-stree/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F801250%2Fa-candid-shot-of-warren-buffett-looking-away-from-the-camera.jpg&op=resize&w=165&h=104","relate_stocks":{"NVDU":"Direxion Daily NVDA Bull 2X Shares","NVDA":"英伟达","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","NVDS":"Tradr 1.5X Short NVDA Daily ETF","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","WRD":"文远知行","VOO":"Vanguard标普500ETF","BK4567":"ESG概念","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","LU2461242641.AUD":"WELLINGTON US QUALITY GROWTH \"A\" (AUDHDG) ACC","NVIW.SI":"NVDA 3xLongSG261006","GRO":"Brazil Potash Corp.","LU1037948897.HKD":"AB LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (HKD) INC","MSFT":"微软","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","3NVD.UK":"LS 3X NVIDIA","NVDD":"Direxion Daily NVDA Bear 1X Shares","AAPL":"苹果","NVD":"GraniteShares 2x Short NVDA Daily ETF","LU1221951129.SGD":"NORDEA 1 STABLE RETURN \"HM\" (SGDHDG) INC","2NVD.UK":"2X NVIDIA ETP","NVD2.UK":"2X NVIDIA ETP","SPY":"标普500ETF","PHH":"Park Ha Biological Technology Co. Ltd.","LU1934455863.HKD":"AB SICAV I LOW VOLATILITY TOTAL RETURN EQUITY PORT \"A\" (HKD) ACC","NVD3.UK":"LS 3X NVIDIA","SNVD.UK":"LS -1X NVIDIA","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","MACW.SI":"APPLE 3xLongSG261006",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","OEX":"标普100","NVDS.UK":"LS -1X NVIDIA","BK4097":"系统软件","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","LU0786609619.USD":"高盛全球千禧一代股票组合Acc","BK4549":"软银资本持仓","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","NVDX":"T-REX 2X LONG NVIDIA DAILY TARGET ETF","LU1366333091.USD":"FIDELITY GLOBAL FOCUS \"A\" (USD) ACC","BRK.A":"伯克希尔","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","NVDY":"YIELDMAX NVDA OPTION INCOME STRATEGY ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","LU2362541513.USD":"WELLINGTON NEXT GENERATION GLOBAL EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","FDN":"First Trust Dow Jones Internet I"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/12/19/warren-buffett-1-vanguard-fund-soar-147-wall-stree/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2492442501","content_text":"Warren Buffett says most investors would be better off buying exchange-traded funds (ETFs) instead of picking individual stocks themselves. \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nHis Berkshire Hathaway investment company holds two ETFs that directly track the performance of the S&P 500. \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nAccording to Tom Lee of Fundstrat Global Advisors, the S&P 500 could soar 147% by 2030. \n\nWarren Buffett is the CEO of Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A)(NYSE: BRK.B), where he oversees a $299 billion portfolio of publicly traded stocks and securities. The investment conglomerate also wholly owns several private businesses, and it has a $325 billion cash pile, which Buffett and his team can put to work when they spot new opportunities. Since Buffett became CEO in 1965, his investment decisions have contributed to a compound annual return of 19.8% in Berkshire stock. The S&P 500 (^GSPC -2.95%) delivered an average annual return of 10.3% over the same period, so Berkshire is crushing the broader market. Buffett is a full-time investing professional. He knows average retail investors would struggle to replicate his success, so he often recommends they buy exchange-traded funds (ETFs) instead. Berkshire actually holds two of them in its portfolio: The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO -2.94%) and the SPDR S&P 500 Investment Trust. Both funds directly track the performance of the S&P 500, but the Vanguard ETF might be the better choice because of its lower cost. According to a forecast from a top Wall Street analyst, investors who buy the ETF today could earn a whopping 147% gain by 2030.Image source: The Motley Fool.A great ETF for long-term investors of all skill levelsThe S&P 500 has very strict entry criteria. Companies must be profitable on a trailing 12-month basis to qualify for inclusion, and their market capitalization must be at least $18 billion. Even then, a special committee meets once per quarter to decide which companies should be included, which ensures that only the highest-quality names make the cut.Since the S&P is home to 500 companies from 11 different sectors, it's the most diversified of the major U.S. stock market indexes. The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF holds the same stocks and maintains similar weightings, which is how it tracks the performance of the index.The ETF has an expense ratio of just 0.03%, which is the proportion of the fund deducted each year to cover management costs. It's one of the cheapest ETFs in the world. In comparison, the SPDR S&P 500 Investment Trust has an expense ratio of 0.09%, which makes it three times more expensive to own. A higher expense ratio can detract from investors' returns over the long run.Exposure to tech giants like Nvidia, Apple, and MicrosoftThe S&P 500 is weighted by market capitalization, so the largest companies in the index have a greater influence over its performance than the smallest do. Since the information technology sector is home to more trillion-dollar companies than any other, it has a weighting of 31.3%, which is the highest in the S&P 500. The three largest companies in the S&P 500 have a combined market capitalization of $10.4 trillion, and each of them is in the information technology sector:StockVanguard S&P 500 ETF Portfolio Weighting1. Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL)7.06%2. Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA)6.66%3. Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT)6.16%Data source: Vanguard. Portfolio weightings are accurate as of Nov. 30, 2024, and are subject to change.Those three companies have different business models, but they're all betting big on artificial intelligence (AI). Apple recently launched its Apple Intelligence software for users of the latest iPhones, iPads, and Mac computers. It unleashes new writing tools that can instantly summarize emails and text messages, and it can even proofread or rewrite outgoing text content. Apple Intelligence also empowers the Siri voice assistant with new capabilities, thanks to an integration with OpenAI's ChatGPT software. Nvidia, on the other hand, is the leading supplier of graphics processors (GPUs) for the data center, which are used in AI development. The company just started shipping its highly anticipated Blackwell chips, which will help businesses build and deploy the most advanced AI models to date. Blackwell sales are expected to ramp up significantly in 2025, which is why I think Nvidia will be a top-performing stock next year.Microsoft is investing heavily in everything from AI data centers to software applications. The company's Azure cloud platform is now a go-to destination for developers seeking computing capacity and ready-made large language models (LLMs) to build their own AI software.But the S&P 500 isn't all about tech. The index holds Berkshire Hathaway stock, and a number of other prominent non-technology stocks like JP Morgan Chase, Eli Lilly, Visa, Costco, Walmart, and more.Image source: Getty Images.Potential upside of 147% by 2030Wall Street doesn't always get things right, so investors should never hang their hats on the word of any analyst. But Tom Lee from Fundstrat Global Advisors made some incredibly accurate predictions for the S&P 500 over the last couple of years, so it's worth keeping his forecasts in mind.He said the S&P 500 would rise to 4,750 in 2023 while most other analysts were cautious, and the index closed the year at 4,769. The S&P 500 has also surpassed four of his 2024 targets (5,200, 5,500, 5,700, and 6,000) already. He swung for the fences one last time earlier this month, saying the S&P 500 could hit 6,300 by year-end. With two weeks left, it will need to rise by another 3.7% to get there.But Lee came out with a long-term target for the S&P 500 earlier this year, predicting it will hit 15,000 by 2030. That implies an upside of 147% from where it trades today, which is the return investors can expect from the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF if he's right.Lee says millennials and Gen Zers are about to enter the prime period of their careers (between ages 30 and 50). That's when people usually earn the most money and make big life decisions like investing, which could be a tailwind for the S&P 500.Lee also believes AI will contribute to the potential upside. Companies are likely to pour trillions of dollars into machine learning and automation to solve global workforce shortages in the coming years, which could drive a productivity boom. Of course, there are risks to Lee's forecast. A global economic shock like another pandemic or a financial crisis could delay the S&P 500 on its journey to 15,000 by several years. Plus, AI might fail to live up to the hype, which would cause companies like Nvidia to lose significant amounts of their value.But even if the S&P 500 doesn't reach 15,000 by 2030, history suggests it's likely to get there eventually. As a result, investors should consider taking Warren Buffett's advice and buy the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF for the long term anyway.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":231,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":383317627605080,"gmtCreate":1734588814306,"gmtModify":1734591421807,"author":{"id":"3463446769405484","authorId":"3463446769405484","name":"赌搏","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b84db6b69ddd9a2009dd889301c66ea5","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3463446769405484","idStr":"3463446769405484"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$腾讯控股(00700)$ </a> 但随趋势,莫问前程","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$腾讯控股(00700)$ </a> 但随趋势,莫问前程","text":"$腾讯控股(00700)$ 但随趋势,莫问前程","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d90f4d196a7c5eee158b960ee30ee482","width":"1080","height":"1811"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/383317627605080","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":327,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":383109463642408,"gmtCreate":1734561826069,"gmtModify":1734572500054,"author":{"id":"3463446769405484","authorId":"3463446769405484","name":"赌搏","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b84db6b69ddd9a2009dd889301c66ea5","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3463446769405484","idStr":"3463446769405484"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20241220 450.0 CALL\">$TSLA 20241220 450.0 CALL$ </a> 1","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20241220 450.0 CALL\">$TSLA 20241220 450.0 CALL$ </a> 1","text":"$TSLA 20241220 450.0 CALL$ 1","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7ab1ff39ab848daa6cff4e1409494b0","width":"1080","height":"1761"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/383109463642408","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":127,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":383037534757216,"gmtCreate":1734557246921,"gmtModify":1734557359937,"author":{"id":"3463446769405484","authorId":"3463446769405484","name":"赌搏","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b84db6b69ddd9a2009dd889301c66ea5","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3463446769405484","idStr":"3463446769405484"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/SPX 20241220 5950.0 PUT\">$SPX 20241220 5950.0 PUT$ </a> 。。。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/SPX 20241220 5950.0 PUT\">$SPX 20241220 5950.0 PUT$ </a> 。。。","text":"$SPX 20241220 5950.0 PUT$ 。。。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2cefbf2a76732ad1fbb11e78428c7fde","width":"1080","height":"1761"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/383037534757216","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":281,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":382914612015368,"gmtCreate":1734514216018,"gmtModify":1734514218537,"author":{"id":"3463446769405484","authorId":"3463446769405484","name":"赌搏","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b84db6b69ddd9a2009dd889301c66ea5","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3463446769405484","idStr":"3463446769405484"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"当然是A股大牛市啊 😅","listText":"当然是A股大牛市啊 😅","text":"当然是A股大牛市啊 😅","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/382914612015368","repostId":"2492989069","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2492989069","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1734419280,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2492989069?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-12-17 15:08","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"危险信号正在积聚,2025美股泡沫是否一戳即破?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2492989069","media":"金融界","summary":"高估值:危险信号正在积聚2023年至今,美股连续两年上涨超过20%,科技股功不可没。今年前三季度Berkshire Hathaway股票抛售明显增加,累计抛售1274.1亿美元。其中第三季度分别减持苹果公司和美国银行200亿美元和90亿美元。2024年,这七家公司的市值增长占标普500总市值增幅的70%以上。虽然美联储后续降息步伐放缓甚至停止,但2024年12月份最近一次降息,可能会增加市场的上行风险,给泡沫火上浇油。美股愈发脆弱,泡沫是否一戳就破?","content":"<html><body><div>\n<p><strong>狂欢的背后,是历史重演还是新篇章?</strong></p><p>2023年和2024年至今,美股持续刷新历史纪录,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>指数、纳斯达克指数等主要股指全线走高。但在欣欣向荣的市场背后,泡沫的警钟似乎越敲越响。华尔街投资者正在两种情绪之间摇摆——兴奋于科技股和AI革命带来的新机遇,同时又不安于估值高企、美股流动性脆弱的基本面。</p><p>这一切,是否预示着危机正在悄然而至?</p><p>历史告诉我们,泡沫的破灭往往伴随着疯狂的乐观预期。从17世纪荷兰的郁金香泡沫到2000年的互联网泡沫,每一次市场的狂热都埋下了灾难的伏笔。</p><p>荷兰郁金香的故事广为人知:一种花卉的价格因投机而飙升,最后在一夜之间崩盘,导致无数家庭倾家荡产。而2000年的互联网泡沫同样让人记忆犹新。科技公司的市值飙升至天文数字,但大部分企业盈利能力不足,最终泡沫破灭,纳斯达克指数从高峰跌去近70%。</p><p>如今的美股市场是否在重蹈覆辙?</p><p><img src=\"http://img.jrjimg.cn/2024/12/weixin/one_20241217150820066.png\"/></p><p><strong>高估值:危险信号正在积聚</strong></p><p>2023年至今,美股连续两年上涨超过20%,科技股功不可没。从<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>到<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>,再到<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>,七大科技巨头市值急剧膨胀。人工智能技术的快速突破,引发了市场对新一轮科技革命的憧憬。然而,高速增长的背后,估值水平也攀升至令人担忧的高度。</p><p>根据席勒周期性调整市盈率(CAPE),标普500的估值已接近2000年互联网泡沫时期的水平。当CAPE超过30倍后,历史上总会伴随20%至89%的市场回调。巴菲特的“市场总市值/GDP”比值也高达2.17,远超警戒线。</p><p>巴菲特旗下的Berkshire Hathaway三季度现金储备上升480亿美元至3252亿美元,创下历史最高纪录。今年前三季度Berkshire Hathaway股票抛售明显增加,累计抛售1274.1亿美元。其中第三季度分别减持<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>公司和美国银行200亿美元和90亿美元。巴菲特也声称将继续避免进行重大收购,同时停止回购股票。这对华尔街和投资者来说是一个明确的“暗示”,股市有可能即将陷入困境。</p><p>这些指标都在警告我们:美股泡沫可能已近临界点。</p><p><img src=\"http://img.jrjimg.cn/2024/12/weixin/one_20241217150820246.png\"/></p><p>科技股的集中化也在暗示着繁荣的背后风险。七大科技巨头(苹果、微软、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>、特斯拉、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>、Meta、英伟达)成为美股繁荣的主要推动力,但也带来了市场结构的高度集中化。2024年,这七家公司的市值增长占标普500总市值增幅的70%以上。虽然它们短期内具备较强盈利能力,但其估值已被显著推高,一旦市场预期变化,回调的幅度可能会非常剧烈。</p><p><strong>AI泡沫:繁荣与危机并存</strong></p><p>自ChatGPT问世以来,AI技术的迅速普及彻底改变了市场情绪。投资者乐观地相信,人工智能将推动生产力飞跃,带来新的经济增长点。短短两年时间,AI相关概念股如英伟达的市值翻倍,推动纳斯达克100指数上涨超过80%。</p><p>然而,这种繁荣的背后,也暴露了潜在风险。许多AI概念股的股价增长速度远远快于盈利增长。2024年下半年,美国科技股的平均市盈率已达到互联网泡沫时期的高点,而其盈利增速却未达到匹配的水平。</p><p>这一幕,是否与2000年的互联网泡沫有些相似?在那场泡沫中,投资者对科技公司的未来增长过于乐观,而忽视了企业基本面的支撑力。如今,AI泡沫会不会重蹈覆辙,膨胀过后成为美股崩盘新的导火索?1980年代美国滞胀后宽松和减税政策,以及1990年代的互联网泡沫推动了创纪录的股市繁荣,但随之而来的是1987年、2000年的崩溃。2000年时,大量公司在盈利模式不清的情况下冲击资本市场,最终引发了历史性崩盘。尽管目前的科技巨头盈利能力较强,但市场对AI的过度乐观是否会导致历史重演?</p><p><img src=\"http://img.jrjimg.cn/2024/12/weixin/one_20241217150820433.png\"/></p><p>虽然美股由科技股快速上涨拉升估值处于高位,但科技七巨头带来的美股估值结构性变化提高了整体的估值中枢。而且标普500除去科技七巨头的盈利预期在今年第四季度也会迎来超高的预期增长。虽然美联储后续降息步伐放缓甚至停止,但2024年12月份最近一次降息,可能会增加市场的上行风险,给泡沫火上浇油。</p><p><img src=\"http://img.jrjimg.cn/2024/12/weixin/one_20241217150820576.png\"/></p><p><strong>美股愈发脆弱,泡沫是否一戳就破?</strong></p><p>在市场看似繁荣的背后,风险的苗头也在不断积聚。2024年,标普500经历了自金融危机以来最高频的脆弱性事件。以每周对数回报的一年滚动峰度来衡量脆弱性,2016年后,标普500发生了近百年来4次最大的脆弱性冲击中的2次(2018年2月和2020年3月),自2008年全球金融危机以来,其脆弱性发生的频率增加了约5倍。这种跨资产现象表征着利率、信贷、外汇和商品市场的脆弱性都在增加。最近一个极端脆弱的例子,是2024年8月5日的VIX冲击,这是近34年历史上最大的脆弱事件。</p><p><img src=\"http://img.jrjimg.cn/2024/12/weixin/one_20241217150820729.png\"/></p><p>美股高频交易、海量资本堆积和套利交易下,美股面对愈来愈频繁的流动性不稳定。高频交易已占美股交易量50%以上,这种交易模式虽然提高了市场效率,但在流动性骤减时也放大了市场波动风险。另外,美国市场分割、碎片化交易在平常金融市场流动性很高时并不会有大的问题,但当金融条件收紧,市场流动性问题会快速暴露。而且在高频交易和算法交易的推波助澜下,风险被放大。</p><p><img src=\"http://img.jrjimg.cn/2024/12/weixin/one_20241217150820877.png\"/></p><p>例如,2024年8月的套利交易平仓引发的美股闪崩,成为脆弱市场结构的缩影。由于日本长年低利率加上日元贬值,不少投资者在日本低息贷款,并将日元换成其他货币,投资到高回报资产中。当日本加息时,利率上升,套利交易便会被平仓。</p><p><img src=\"http://img.jrjimg.cn/2024/12/weixin/one_20241217150821049.png\"/></p><p>2025年的关键风险在于投资者还沉浸于人工智能即将带来的生产率快速提升的过度乐观上,没意识到尾部风险已然过大。目前AI泡沫已经足够大,AI概念股可能会加速泡沫化,也可能回吐较大的涨幅,这两种结果都会导致市场剧烈波动。而且今年8月5日VIX的历史性冲击表明市场结构性的脆弱性,这种脆弱性意味着美股可能更容易受到冲击,临界点可能很快到来。</p><p><strong>当前美股股价支撑是否稳固?</strong></p><p>年初至今,美股在货币政策宽松过程当中持续上涨:标普500指数上涨27.6%,纳指涨34.9%,道琼斯工业涨16.2%。然而,货币政策的宽松、市场情绪的高涨以及科技股的引领作用,正在掩盖一些潜在的隐忧。虽然美股以忠实反映基本面著称,但市场对科技股的狂热推动了估值飙升,与基本面逐渐脱节。基于对美股盈利和估值拆分,美股自2023年下半年开始持续估值回升,这与通胀超预期、美联储货币政策转向、无风险利率宽松直接相关。然而,这些短期因素是否足够为市场的长期增长提供支撑,值得商榷。</p><p><img src=\"http://img.jrjimg.cn/2024/12/weixin/one_20241217150821229.png\"/></p><p><img src=\"http://img.jrjimg.cn/2024/12/weixin/one_20241217150821419.png\"/></p><p>未来美股的主要驱动力在于投资者对盈利增长幅度及其持续时间的预期。经济增长是推动企业盈利的关键,而市场对两者的预期直接决定了市盈率的变化。但美股市场日益显现出“寡头化”的趋势:市值最大的科技公司已经成为估值高企的主要推手。</p><p><img src=\"http://img.jrjimg.cn/2024/12/weixin/one_20241217150821632.png\"/></p><p>另一个支撑美股股价的因素是上市公司的大规模股票回购。标普500回购指数与市场整体走势高度相关,科技和金融两个行业更是回购主力。然而,许多公司是通过发行企业债务来筹集回购资金的。在高利率环境下,这些企业的债务成本持续上升,对盈利能力的挤压日益显著。如果利息负担超过企业的偿债能力,回购计划可能被迫缩减甚至停止,进而削弱股价支撑力。</p><p>美联储货币政策是影响未来市场走势的关键因素之一。当前降息步伐放缓,长期维持鹰派态度的可能性较大,尤其是在特朗普政府减税与关税政策推升通胀预期的情况下。此外,全球供应链风险和经济下行压力可能进一步削弱企业盈利能力。如果企业在偿债压力下不得不削减支出甚至抛售股票,这种连锁反应或许会引发美股“多米诺骨牌效应”,导致市场更大范围的波动。</p><p>在未来的不确定性中,美股投资者应警惕市场的脆弱性——尤其是由债务累积、回购缩减及政策变化共同引发的潜在风险。尽管繁荣仍在延续,但崩盘的种子或许已经悄然埋下,而时间可能已经所剩无几。</p><p><img src=\"http://img.jrjimg.cn/2024/12/weixin/one_20241217150821815.png\"/></p><p><img src=\"http://img.jrjimg.cn/2024/12/weixin/one_20241217150821971.png\"/></p><p><strong>2025美股展望:是繁荣的延续,还是悬崖的边缘?</strong></p><p>2000年的互联网泡沫告诉我们,市场繁荣需要坚实的基本面支撑,而非对未来增长的盲目乐观。今天的AI技术虽然潜力巨大,但仍需时间来证明其对盈利和经济增长的真正贡献。从郁金香泡沫到互联网泡沫,再到如今的AI狂潮,每一次危机的背后,都有其明确的警示信号。</p><p>2025年,如果科技巨头能够保持较高的盈利增长预期,市场或许还有上行空间。然而,一旦经济数据或政策预期发生变化,美股的估值或许会经历一轮剧烈调整。美股的未来是繁荣的延续,还是泡沫的破裂,取决于市场能否在乐观与理性之间找到平衡。投资者需要意识到,历史的教训从未远离我们。</p><p>2025年的美股市场,正处在繁荣与危机的十字路口。科技股的高歌猛进,既是未来增长的象征,也是潜在风险的预兆。投资者需要从历史中汲取教训,在乐观与谨慎之间找到平衡。牛市的延续,还是泡沫的破裂,一切将取决于科技行业的基本面能否匹配市场的高期待。</p><p>本文来源中概股之家</p>\n<div>\n<div>\r\n 责任编辑:钟离\r\n </div>\n</div>\n</div></body></html>","source":"jinrongjie_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" 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0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n危险信号正在积聚,2025美股泡沫是否一戳即破?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-12-17 15:08 北京时间 <a href=https://usstock.jrj.com.cn/2024/12/17150846466559.shtml><strong>金融界</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>狂欢的背后,是历史重演还是新篇章?2023年和2024年至今,美股持续刷新历史纪录,标普500指数、纳斯达克指数等主要股指全线走高。但在欣欣向荣的市场背后,泡沫的警钟似乎越敲越响。华尔街投资者正在两种情绪之间摇摆——兴奋于科技股和AI革命带来的新机遇,同时又不安于估值高企、美股流动性脆弱的基本面。这一切,是否预示着危机正在悄然而至?历史告诉我们,泡沫的破灭往往伴随着疯狂的乐观预期。从17世纪荷兰的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://usstock.jrj.com.cn/2024/12/17150846466559.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"http://imgcloud.jrjimg.cn/2024/12/weixin/one_20241217150820066.png","relate_stocks":{"LU1280957306.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQUITIES \"AUP\" (USD) INC","BK4176":"多领域控股","LU1914381329.SGD":"Allianz Best Styles Global Equity Cl ET Acc H2-SGD","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","LU1363072403.SGD":"Fidelity Global Financial Services A-ACC-SGD","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","DOG":"道指反向ETF","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","BK1147":"投资银行业与经纪业","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU0130102774.USD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA USD","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","IE000M9KFDE8.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US LARGE CAP VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0157215616.USD":"FIDELITY GLOBAL FOCUS \"A\" INC","LU0648001328.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA SGD","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","BRK.A":"伯克希尔","LU0787776722.HKD":"AB SELECT US EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"A\" (HKD) ACC","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","LU0149725797.USD":"汇丰美国股市经济规模基金","LU1074936037.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Value A (acc) SGD","03086":"华夏纳指","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","IE0034235303.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US RESEARCH ENHANCED CORE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0154236417.USD":"BGF US FLEXIBLE EQUITY \"A2\" ACC","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4588":"碎股","LU1201861249.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity PA SGD-H","CAPE":"Shiller CAPE U.S. Equities ETF","LU0980610538.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA SGD-H","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","BK4581":"高盛持仓","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","LU0170899867.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS WORLD VALUE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC",".DJI":"道琼斯","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","LU0048573561.USD":"FIDELITY AMERICA \"A\" (USD) INC","TTTN":"老虎中美互联网巨头ETF","OEX":"标普100",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC"},"source_url":"https://usstock.jrj.com.cn/2024/12/17150846466559.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2492989069","content_text":"狂欢的背后,是历史重演还是新篇章?2023年和2024年至今,美股持续刷新历史纪录,标普500指数、纳斯达克指数等主要股指全线走高。但在欣欣向荣的市场背后,泡沫的警钟似乎越敲越响。华尔街投资者正在两种情绪之间摇摆——兴奋于科技股和AI革命带来的新机遇,同时又不安于估值高企、美股流动性脆弱的基本面。这一切,是否预示着危机正在悄然而至?历史告诉我们,泡沫的破灭往往伴随着疯狂的乐观预期。从17世纪荷兰的郁金香泡沫到2000年的互联网泡沫,每一次市场的狂热都埋下了灾难的伏笔。荷兰郁金香的故事广为人知:一种花卉的价格因投机而飙升,最后在一夜之间崩盘,导致无数家庭倾家荡产。而2000年的互联网泡沫同样让人记忆犹新。科技公司的市值飙升至天文数字,但大部分企业盈利能力不足,最终泡沫破灭,纳斯达克指数从高峰跌去近70%。如今的美股市场是否在重蹈覆辙?高估值:危险信号正在积聚2023年至今,美股连续两年上涨超过20%,科技股功不可没。从微软到英伟达,再到特斯拉,七大科技巨头市值急剧膨胀。人工智能技术的快速突破,引发了市场对新一轮科技革命的憧憬。然而,高速增长的背后,估值水平也攀升至令人担忧的高度。根据席勒周期性调整市盈率(CAPE),标普500的估值已接近2000年互联网泡沫时期的水平。当CAPE超过30倍后,历史上总会伴随20%至89%的市场回调。巴菲特的“市场总市值/GDP”比值也高达2.17,远超警戒线。巴菲特旗下的Berkshire Hathaway三季度现金储备上升480亿美元至3252亿美元,创下历史最高纪录。今年前三季度Berkshire Hathaway股票抛售明显增加,累计抛售1274.1亿美元。其中第三季度分别减持苹果公司和美国银行200亿美元和90亿美元。巴菲特也声称将继续避免进行重大收购,同时停止回购股票。这对华尔街和投资者来说是一个明确的“暗示”,股市有可能即将陷入困境。这些指标都在警告我们:美股泡沫可能已近临界点。科技股的集中化也在暗示着繁荣的背后风险。七大科技巨头(苹果、微软、亚马逊、特斯拉、谷歌、Meta、英伟达)成为美股繁荣的主要推动力,但也带来了市场结构的高度集中化。2024年,这七家公司的市值增长占标普500总市值增幅的70%以上。虽然它们短期内具备较强盈利能力,但其估值已被显著推高,一旦市场预期变化,回调的幅度可能会非常剧烈。AI泡沫:繁荣与危机并存自ChatGPT问世以来,AI技术的迅速普及彻底改变了市场情绪。投资者乐观地相信,人工智能将推动生产力飞跃,带来新的经济增长点。短短两年时间,AI相关概念股如英伟达的市值翻倍,推动纳斯达克100指数上涨超过80%。然而,这种繁荣的背后,也暴露了潜在风险。许多AI概念股的股价增长速度远远快于盈利增长。2024年下半年,美国科技股的平均市盈率已达到互联网泡沫时期的高点,而其盈利增速却未达到匹配的水平。这一幕,是否与2000年的互联网泡沫有些相似?在那场泡沫中,投资者对科技公司的未来增长过于乐观,而忽视了企业基本面的支撑力。如今,AI泡沫会不会重蹈覆辙,膨胀过后成为美股崩盘新的导火索?1980年代美国滞胀后宽松和减税政策,以及1990年代的互联网泡沫推动了创纪录的股市繁荣,但随之而来的是1987年、2000年的崩溃。2000年时,大量公司在盈利模式不清的情况下冲击资本市场,最终引发了历史性崩盘。尽管目前的科技巨头盈利能力较强,但市场对AI的过度乐观是否会导致历史重演?虽然美股由科技股快速上涨拉升估值处于高位,但科技七巨头带来的美股估值结构性变化提高了整体的估值中枢。而且标普500除去科技七巨头的盈利预期在今年第四季度也会迎来超高的预期增长。虽然美联储后续降息步伐放缓甚至停止,但2024年12月份最近一次降息,可能会增加市场的上行风险,给泡沫火上浇油。美股愈发脆弱,泡沫是否一戳就破?在市场看似繁荣的背后,风险的苗头也在不断积聚。2024年,标普500经历了自金融危机以来最高频的脆弱性事件。以每周对数回报的一年滚动峰度来衡量脆弱性,2016年后,标普500发生了近百年来4次最大的脆弱性冲击中的2次(2018年2月和2020年3月),自2008年全球金融危机以来,其脆弱性发生的频率增加了约5倍。这种跨资产现象表征着利率、信贷、外汇和商品市场的脆弱性都在增加。最近一个极端脆弱的例子,是2024年8月5日的VIX冲击,这是近34年历史上最大的脆弱事件。美股高频交易、海量资本堆积和套利交易下,美股面对愈来愈频繁的流动性不稳定。高频交易已占美股交易量50%以上,这种交易模式虽然提高了市场效率,但在流动性骤减时也放大了市场波动风险。另外,美国市场分割、碎片化交易在平常金融市场流动性很高时并不会有大的问题,但当金融条件收紧,市场流动性问题会快速暴露。而且在高频交易和算法交易的推波助澜下,风险被放大。例如,2024年8月的套利交易平仓引发的美股闪崩,成为脆弱市场结构的缩影。由于日本长年低利率加上日元贬值,不少投资者在日本低息贷款,并将日元换成其他货币,投资到高回报资产中。当日本加息时,利率上升,套利交易便会被平仓。2025年的关键风险在于投资者还沉浸于人工智能即将带来的生产率快速提升的过度乐观上,没意识到尾部风险已然过大。目前AI泡沫已经足够大,AI概念股可能会加速泡沫化,也可能回吐较大的涨幅,这两种结果都会导致市场剧烈波动。而且今年8月5日VIX的历史性冲击表明市场结构性的脆弱性,这种脆弱性意味着美股可能更容易受到冲击,临界点可能很快到来。当前美股股价支撑是否稳固?年初至今,美股在货币政策宽松过程当中持续上涨:标普500指数上涨27.6%,纳指涨34.9%,道琼斯工业涨16.2%。然而,货币政策的宽松、市场情绪的高涨以及科技股的引领作用,正在掩盖一些潜在的隐忧。虽然美股以忠实反映基本面著称,但市场对科技股的狂热推动了估值飙升,与基本面逐渐脱节。基于对美股盈利和估值拆分,美股自2023年下半年开始持续估值回升,这与通胀超预期、美联储货币政策转向、无风险利率宽松直接相关。然而,这些短期因素是否足够为市场的长期增长提供支撑,值得商榷。未来美股的主要驱动力在于投资者对盈利增长幅度及其持续时间的预期。经济增长是推动企业盈利的关键,而市场对两者的预期直接决定了市盈率的变化。但美股市场日益显现出“寡头化”的趋势:市值最大的科技公司已经成为估值高企的主要推手。另一个支撑美股股价的因素是上市公司的大规模股票回购。标普500回购指数与市场整体走势高度相关,科技和金融两个行业更是回购主力。然而,许多公司是通过发行企业债务来筹集回购资金的。在高利率环境下,这些企业的债务成本持续上升,对盈利能力的挤压日益显著。如果利息负担超过企业的偿债能力,回购计划可能被迫缩减甚至停止,进而削弱股价支撑力。美联储货币政策是影响未来市场走势的关键因素之一。当前降息步伐放缓,长期维持鹰派态度的可能性较大,尤其是在特朗普政府减税与关税政策推升通胀预期的情况下。此外,全球供应链风险和经济下行压力可能进一步削弱企业盈利能力。如果企业在偿债压力下不得不削减支出甚至抛售股票,这种连锁反应或许会引发美股“多米诺骨牌效应”,导致市场更大范围的波动。在未来的不确定性中,美股投资者应警惕市场的脆弱性——尤其是由债务累积、回购缩减及政策变化共同引发的潜在风险。尽管繁荣仍在延续,但崩盘的种子或许已经悄然埋下,而时间可能已经所剩无几。2025美股展望:是繁荣的延续,还是悬崖的边缘?2000年的互联网泡沫告诉我们,市场繁荣需要坚实的基本面支撑,而非对未来增长的盲目乐观。今天的AI技术虽然潜力巨大,但仍需时间来证明其对盈利和经济增长的真正贡献。从郁金香泡沫到互联网泡沫,再到如今的AI狂潮,每一次危机的背后,都有其明确的警示信号。2025年,如果科技巨头能够保持较高的盈利增长预期,市场或许还有上行空间。然而,一旦经济数据或政策预期发生变化,美股的估值或许会经历一轮剧烈调整。美股的未来是繁荣的延续,还是泡沫的破裂,取决于市场能否在乐观与理性之间找到平衡。投资者需要意识到,历史的教训从未远离我们。2025年的美股市场,正处在繁荣与危机的十字路口。科技股的高歌猛进,既是未来增长的象征,也是潜在风险的预兆。投资者需要从历史中汲取教训,在乐观与谨慎之间找到平衡。牛市的延续,还是泡沫的破裂,一切将取决于科技行业的基本面能否匹配市场的高期待。本文来源中概股之家\n\n\r\n 责任编辑:钟离","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":371,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":382724114965016,"gmtCreate":1734473896625,"gmtModify":1734473898726,"author":{"id":"3463446769405484","authorId":"3463446769405484","name":"赌搏","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b84db6b69ddd9a2009dd889301c66ea5","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3463446769405484","idStr":"3463446769405484"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"this is my house","listText":"this is my house","text":"this is my house","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/382724114965016","repostId":"1107816232","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1107816232","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1734397019,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1107816232?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-12-17 08:56","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特斯拉努力避免因取消马斯克的薪酬方案而付出高昂代价","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107816232","media":"瓦砾村夫","summary":"特斯拉已经宣告继续为恢复埃隆·马斯克历史性的薪酬待遇而奋斗。今年4月,特斯拉就警告股东,重新发行一系列新的股票期权,让马斯克有权购买同样的3.04亿股股票,将导致超过250亿美元的薪酬相关的会计费用,因为公司的估值已大大高于2018年。麦考密克今年1月决定废除马斯克的薪酬计划,取消了他的期权。特斯拉没有立即回应置评请求。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><em>本文译自《金融时报》12月16日的同名文章,作者Stephen Morris。</em></p><p><strong>如果这家电动汽车制造商和首席执行官被迫放弃2018年的协议,等待他们的,可能是超过1000亿美元的会计和税务费用。</strong></p><p>特斯拉已经宣告继续为恢复埃隆·马斯克历史性的薪酬待遇而奋斗。而失败可能会带来高昂的代价:该公司及其首席执行官可能要承担超过1000亿美元的税务和会计费用。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0236b95169a70f50ff06c7d3def84bd0\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"591\" tg-height=\"527\"/></p><p>特拉华州法官凯瑟琳·麦考密克(Kathaleen McCormick)最近驳回了这家电动汽车制造商给予马斯克历史上最大的一揽子股票期权的第二次尝试,这些期权在最初裁决时价值560亿美元,按当前股价计算超过1290亿美元。</p><p>她认为,股东以压倒性多数票重新批准授予马斯克的股票期权,并不能推翻她之前作出的判决,即2018年协议是不公平的,而且是由受这位首席执行官宠爱的董事会授予的。</p><p>她的立场让董事会进退两难:要么向特拉华州最高法院提起漫长而不确定的上诉,要么向首席执行官授予新的期权方案。</p><p><strong>如果新的期权方案以类似的条款签订,可能会引发500多亿美元的企业会计费用,并将以高达57%的惩罚性税率,对马斯克的股票单独征收巨额税款。</strong></p><p>今年4月,特斯拉就警告股东,重新发行一系列新的股票期权,让马斯克有权购买同样的3.04亿股股票,将导致超过250亿美元的薪酬相关的会计费用,因为公司的估值已大大高于2018年。相比之下,2018年的原始奖励仅需要支付23亿美元。</p><p>这些计算基于4月1日175美元的股价,当时特斯拉的市值为5580亿美元。此后,特斯拉的股价上涨了一倍多,达到了425美元,估值达到了1.3万亿美元——其中很大一部分原因是投资者热衷于马斯克与当选总统唐纳德·特朗普新建立的关系——这意味着会计费用可能会成倍增加。</p><p>马斯克的净资产最近飙升至4000亿美元,是达到这一财富水平的第一人,但其潜在的税务影响却鲜为人知。</p><p>如果特斯拉在上诉中胜诉(上诉必须在12月2日裁决后30天内提交),马斯克将在行使2018年期权时按照37%的联邦标准税率缴纳个人所得税,不过他的行权可以晚至2028年再进行。</p><p>如果特拉华州最高法院拒绝推翻最初的裁决,董事会选择以类似条款签订新的薪酬方案,那么这些期权将成为“实值期权”(in the money),因为薪酬方案的财务目标都已实现。</p><p>洛杉矶Greenberg Glusker律师事务所的税务合伙人斯凯勒·摩尔(Schuyler Moore)告诉《金融时报》:“这很简单。如果你被授予了‘实值期权’——而现在,这些期权显然就是‘实值’的——那么就会发生各种糟糕的事情。这就是为什么他们正如此努力地重新批准原来的协议。如果他们现在重新授予这一奖励,就会在税收上付出代价。” </p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68f923a3374005499c0f38ce00410d7e\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"617\"/></p><p>设计于2018年,这份股票期权取决于达成雄心勃勃的多个目标,比如收入增长15倍,估值增长12倍——而马斯克在2023年之前就已经实现了这些目标。</p><p>在授予时,这些股票期权是“虚值”(out of the money),不能行权,因此符合税法中关于递延报酬的409A条的例外规定。</p><p>2005年,安然公司破产前,公司高管们急于兑现作为薪酬计划一部分的已行权股票。因此才在后来引入了409A这一规则。</p><p>麦考密克今年1月决定废除马斯克的薪酬计划,取消了他的期权。从税收角度看,这些期权已不复存在。</p><p>摩尔说,如果现在试图以同样的条款授予新的薪酬方案,可能会违反第409A条,该条款“会在递延报酬归属之日,即在递延报酬根据正常规则应纳税之前,立即对递延报酬的全部价值征税”。</p><p>摩尔在颇具影响力的税务期刊《Tax Notes Federal》上发表的一篇文章中写道:“雪上加霜的是,第409A条将对股票价值征收20%的额外税款。授予之日就将造成这一损害。”</p><p><strong>这意味着,无论马斯克选择行使期权与否,他都要立即就行权价与股票现值之间的差额缴纳57%的所得税。</strong>按照12月11日的收盘价425美元和2018年设定的行权价23.34美元计算,差额将达到1220亿美元,这意味着近700亿美元的税单。</p><p>Jeffer Mangels Butler & Mitchell公司的税务合伙人布拉德福德·科恩(Bradford Cohen)说:“这里的税务问题很直接。如果你现在给他同样的不适用409A条款的薪酬方案,你将面临在授予时,而不是在他行权时加速征收所得税的问题,而且还要缴纳罚金。这可能是一个非常昂贵、非常不幸的错误。”</p><p>即使对于世界首富马斯克来说,这也是令人瞠目的。2022年初,这位亿万富翁在X上发表了一个回复帖,他说:他“去年缴纳了历史上最多的个人税款”(110多亿美元)。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a820b7f9daab309334a099f2e9345302\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"592\" tg-height=\"474\"/></p><p>摩尔说:“马斯克避免这些问题的唯一办法就是......成功上诉,因为这样一来,这一决定就会被视为无效。很多事情都将取决于这些尝试。” </p><p>摩尔说,尽管马斯克去年在有权行使期权时选择了不行使,但“拥有期权是很强大而有价值的”,因为它们对潜在的收购者或激进分子起到了威慑作用。只要马斯克不对期权授予留置权,他还可以用期权的隐含价值进行借款。</p><p>董事会还有另一条途径可以帮助马斯克规避20%的额外税款,但成本仍然很高。<strong>按照目前的价格,董事们可以授予他价值1290亿美元的3.04亿股特斯拉股票,这将需要缴纳37%的标准税率,约合480亿美元。</strong></p><p>在今年8月的听证会上,当麦考密克就这一问题提问时,特斯拉的一位律师也提出了一个可能性,即提高的个人税率可能会导致马斯克获得一个更大的薪酬包,以抵消他的纳税成本。</p><p>Richards, Layton & Finger公司的鲁道夫·科赫(Rudolf Koch)说:“归根结底,我们都知道经济是如何运作的,那么你就不得不可能要付给他更多的钱。如果他有一个自己想要的数字,而他又要纳税,那么这些就会转嫁给股东。”</p><p>此外,如果马斯克为了支付税款而一次性抛售这么多股票,将有可能导致股价下跌。</p><p>公司仍然需要承担会计费用。而且,如果重新开始薪酬谈判,马斯克可能不会同意在行权后的五年锁定期内不能出售股票,这是他2018年薪酬方案的一个特点。</p><p>马斯克此前曾提出退出这家电动汽车制造商的可能性,而董事会则认为,薪酬计划是留住这位善变的亿万富翁的关键方式。</p><p>今年1月,他在X上发帖称,“如果没有~25%的投票控制权,要把特斯拉发展成为Al和机器人技术领域的领导者,我会很不舒服”,“如果不能做到这一点,我更愿意在特斯拉之外打造产品”。</p><p>特斯拉没有立即回应置评请求。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1649056886487","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特斯拉努力避免因取消马斯克的薪酬方案而付出高昂代价</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特斯拉努力避免因取消马斯克的薪酬方案而付出高昂代价\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-12-17 08:56 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Rv6ek_a9GjEPckjOZJ8HGg><strong>瓦砾村夫</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>本文译自《金融时报》12月16日的同名文章,作者Stephen Morris。如果这家电动汽车制造商和首席执行官被迫放弃2018年的协议,等待他们的,可能是超过1000亿美元的会计和税务费用。特斯拉已经宣告继续为恢复埃隆·马斯克历史性的薪酬待遇而奋斗。而失败可能会带来高昂的代价:该公司及其首席执行官可能要承担超过1000亿美元的税务和会计费用。特拉华州法官凯瑟琳·麦考密克(Kathaleen ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Rv6ek_a9GjEPckjOZJ8HGg\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68f923a3374005499c0f38ce00410d7e","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Rv6ek_a9GjEPckjOZJ8HGg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107816232","content_text":"本文译自《金融时报》12月16日的同名文章,作者Stephen Morris。如果这家电动汽车制造商和首席执行官被迫放弃2018年的协议,等待他们的,可能是超过1000亿美元的会计和税务费用。特斯拉已经宣告继续为恢复埃隆·马斯克历史性的薪酬待遇而奋斗。而失败可能会带来高昂的代价:该公司及其首席执行官可能要承担超过1000亿美元的税务和会计费用。特拉华州法官凯瑟琳·麦考密克(Kathaleen McCormick)最近驳回了这家电动汽车制造商给予马斯克历史上最大的一揽子股票期权的第二次尝试,这些期权在最初裁决时价值560亿美元,按当前股价计算超过1290亿美元。她认为,股东以压倒性多数票重新批准授予马斯克的股票期权,并不能推翻她之前作出的判决,即2018年协议是不公平的,而且是由受这位首席执行官宠爱的董事会授予的。她的立场让董事会进退两难:要么向特拉华州最高法院提起漫长而不确定的上诉,要么向首席执行官授予新的期权方案。如果新的期权方案以类似的条款签订,可能会引发500多亿美元的企业会计费用,并将以高达57%的惩罚性税率,对马斯克的股票单独征收巨额税款。今年4月,特斯拉就警告股东,重新发行一系列新的股票期权,让马斯克有权购买同样的3.04亿股股票,将导致超过250亿美元的薪酬相关的会计费用,因为公司的估值已大大高于2018年。相比之下,2018年的原始奖励仅需要支付23亿美元。这些计算基于4月1日175美元的股价,当时特斯拉的市值为5580亿美元。此后,特斯拉的股价上涨了一倍多,达到了425美元,估值达到了1.3万亿美元——其中很大一部分原因是投资者热衷于马斯克与当选总统唐纳德·特朗普新建立的关系——这意味着会计费用可能会成倍增加。马斯克的净资产最近飙升至4000亿美元,是达到这一财富水平的第一人,但其潜在的税务影响却鲜为人知。如果特斯拉在上诉中胜诉(上诉必须在12月2日裁决后30天内提交),马斯克将在行使2018年期权时按照37%的联邦标准税率缴纳个人所得税,不过他的行权可以晚至2028年再进行。如果特拉华州最高法院拒绝推翻最初的裁决,董事会选择以类似条款签订新的薪酬方案,那么这些期权将成为“实值期权”(in the money),因为薪酬方案的财务目标都已实现。洛杉矶Greenberg Glusker律师事务所的税务合伙人斯凯勒·摩尔(Schuyler Moore)告诉《金融时报》:“这很简单。如果你被授予了‘实值期权’——而现在,这些期权显然就是‘实值’的——那么就会发生各种糟糕的事情。这就是为什么他们正如此努力地重新批准原来的协议。如果他们现在重新授予这一奖励,就会在税收上付出代价。” 设计于2018年,这份股票期权取决于达成雄心勃勃的多个目标,比如收入增长15倍,估值增长12倍——而马斯克在2023年之前就已经实现了这些目标。在授予时,这些股票期权是“虚值”(out of the money),不能行权,因此符合税法中关于递延报酬的409A条的例外规定。2005年,安然公司破产前,公司高管们急于兑现作为薪酬计划一部分的已行权股票。因此才在后来引入了409A这一规则。麦考密克今年1月决定废除马斯克的薪酬计划,取消了他的期权。从税收角度看,这些期权已不复存在。摩尔说,如果现在试图以同样的条款授予新的薪酬方案,可能会违反第409A条,该条款“会在递延报酬归属之日,即在递延报酬根据正常规则应纳税之前,立即对递延报酬的全部价值征税”。摩尔在颇具影响力的税务期刊《Tax Notes Federal》上发表的一篇文章中写道:“雪上加霜的是,第409A条将对股票价值征收20%的额外税款。授予之日就将造成这一损害。”这意味着,无论马斯克选择行使期权与否,他都要立即就行权价与股票现值之间的差额缴纳57%的所得税。按照12月11日的收盘价425美元和2018年设定的行权价23.34美元计算,差额将达到1220亿美元,这意味着近700亿美元的税单。Jeffer Mangels Butler & Mitchell公司的税务合伙人布拉德福德·科恩(Bradford Cohen)说:“这里的税务问题很直接。如果你现在给他同样的不适用409A条款的薪酬方案,你将面临在授予时,而不是在他行权时加速征收所得税的问题,而且还要缴纳罚金。这可能是一个非常昂贵、非常不幸的错误。”即使对于世界首富马斯克来说,这也是令人瞠目的。2022年初,这位亿万富翁在X上发表了一个回复帖,他说:他“去年缴纳了历史上最多的个人税款”(110多亿美元)。摩尔说:“马斯克避免这些问题的唯一办法就是......成功上诉,因为这样一来,这一决定就会被视为无效。很多事情都将取决于这些尝试。” 摩尔说,尽管马斯克去年在有权行使期权时选择了不行使,但“拥有期权是很强大而有价值的”,因为它们对潜在的收购者或激进分子起到了威慑作用。只要马斯克不对期权授予留置权,他还可以用期权的隐含价值进行借款。董事会还有另一条途径可以帮助马斯克规避20%的额外税款,但成本仍然很高。按照目前的价格,董事们可以授予他价值1290亿美元的3.04亿股特斯拉股票,这将需要缴纳37%的标准税率,约合480亿美元。在今年8月的听证会上,当麦考密克就这一问题提问时,特斯拉的一位律师也提出了一个可能性,即提高的个人税率可能会导致马斯克获得一个更大的薪酬包,以抵消他的纳税成本。Richards, Layton & Finger公司的鲁道夫·科赫(Rudolf Koch)说:“归根结底,我们都知道经济是如何运作的,那么你就不得不可能要付给他更多的钱。如果他有一个自己想要的数字,而他又要纳税,那么这些就会转嫁给股东。”此外,如果马斯克为了支付税款而一次性抛售这么多股票,将有可能导致股价下跌。公司仍然需要承担会计费用。而且,如果重新开始薪酬谈判,马斯克可能不会同意在行权后的五年锁定期内不能出售股票,这是他2018年薪酬方案的一个特点。马斯克此前曾提出退出这家电动汽车制造商的可能性,而董事会则认为,薪酬计划是留住这位善变的亿万富翁的关键方式。今年1月,他在X上发帖称,“如果没有~25%的投票控制权,要把特斯拉发展成为Al和机器人技术领域的领导者,我会很不舒服”,“如果不能做到这一点,我更愿意在特斯拉之外打造产品”。特斯拉没有立即回应置评请求。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":162,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":382687111434488,"gmtCreate":1734464664766,"gmtModify":1734466204639,"author":{"id":"3463446769405484","authorId":"3463446769405484","name":"赌搏","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b84db6b69ddd9a2009dd889301c66ea5","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3463446769405484","idStr":"3463446769405484"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.B\">$伯克希尔B(BRK.B)$ </a> 今天至少收阳线吧,真的太弱了。。","listText":"<a 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$纳指ETF(QQQ)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":123,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/95711","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2175,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3434046638438343","authorId":"3434046638438343","name":"旭阳特别帅","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/bbe12234effaffbb31106d837a04c53f","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3434046638438343","authorIdStr":"3434046638438343"},"content":"我玩期权快没有了,只剩270美金,昨晚下定决心只做正股........正股我觉只买三大指数成分股还有知名中概股就行了,把自己的圈子限定好,其他的不要去看了........270美金不知何时才能翻身....😂😂","text":"我玩期权快没有了,只剩270美金,昨晚下定决心只做正股........正股我觉只买三大指数成分股还有知名中概股就行了,把自己的圈子限定好,其他的不要去看了........270美金不知何时才能翻身....😂😂","html":"我玩期权快没有了,只剩270美金,昨晚下定决心只做正股........正股我觉只买三大指数成分股还有知名中概股就行了,把自己的圈子限定好,其他的不要去看了........270美金不知何时才能翻身....😂😂"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":616716148,"gmtCreate":1651976069784,"gmtModify":1652086391528,"author":{"id":"3463446769405484","authorId":"3463446769405484","name":"赌搏","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b84db6b69ddd9a2009dd889301c66ea5","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3463446769405484","authorIdStr":"3463446769405484"},"themes":[],"title":"纳斯达克千年大顶?","htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a> 的历史最高收盘价,即“千年大顶”,暂时定格在了2021年11月19日周五16057.44点,这也是纳指历史上唯一一次收盘高于16000点,也许正因为物极必反,下一个周一11月22日,纳指便掉头向下,开始了至今长达5个多月,甚至可能会持续更久的滚滚大熊市。为什么是这一天?是什么导致十几年的美股大牛市戛然而止?导火索是什么?答:11月22日,美股开盘时分,一则鲍威尔连任的BREAKING NEWS传遍华尔街和全世界。<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连 2206(NQmain)$</a> 火箭般飙升,但在开盘45分钟之后,便一头栽下去了,从此纳指的命运彻底转变了……鸽王连任不是好事吗?为何市场不买账?仅仅“高兴”了45分钟就“集体叛变”了?前因后果说来很复杂,但可以简单总结一下:在此之前,通胀已经远高于2%的目标,但鲍威尔大概是为了顺利连任,每次都说“通胀是暂时的”,市场便仍然很勉强的继续看涨,以至于本来9月7日就应该已经见顶了的纳指,硬是“又续了一命”,再拉了一波至11月19日,即白宫宣布新的美联储主席的前一天;而此时11月的CPI通胀已飙升至6.2%,市场很难再相信鲍威尔的“通胀暂时论”,也更有理由担心鲍威尔会因为“位子稳了”而开始大变脸,于是在一致性预期之下,“卖事实”,纳指开始崩盘了。而鲍威尔也真的开始转变态度了,缩水、加息、缩表,一件件的提上了日程表。正印证了那句“我预期了你的预期”,然后“你按照我的预期执行”?有点意思。人总是有私心的,但公道自在人心。在22Q1财报季初期,纳指快速下跌至13000点附近。再叠加俄","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a> 的历史最高收盘价,即“千年大顶”,暂时定格在了2021年11月19日周五16057.44点,这也是纳指历史上唯一一次收盘高于16000点,也许正因为物极必反,下一个周一11月22日,纳指便掉头向下,开始了至今长达5个多月,甚至可能会持续更久的滚滚大熊市。为什么是这一天?是什么导致十几年的美股大牛市戛然而止?导火索是什么?答:11月22日,美股开盘时分,一则鲍威尔连任的BREAKING NEWS传遍华尔街和全世界。<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连 2206(NQmain)$</a> 火箭般飙升,但在开盘45分钟之后,便一头栽下去了,从此纳指的命运彻底转变了……鸽王连任不是好事吗?为何市场不买账?仅仅“高兴”了45分钟就“集体叛变”了?前因后果说来很复杂,但可以简单总结一下:在此之前,通胀已经远高于2%的目标,但鲍威尔大概是为了顺利连任,每次都说“通胀是暂时的”,市场便仍然很勉强的继续看涨,以至于本来9月7日就应该已经见顶了的纳指,硬是“又续了一命”,再拉了一波至11月19日,即白宫宣布新的美联储主席的前一天;而此时11月的CPI通胀已飙升至6.2%,市场很难再相信鲍威尔的“通胀暂时论”,也更有理由担心鲍威尔会因为“位子稳了”而开始大变脸,于是在一致性预期之下,“卖事实”,纳指开始崩盘了。而鲍威尔也真的开始转变态度了,缩水、加息、缩表,一件件的提上了日程表。正印证了那句“我预期了你的预期”,然后“你按照我的预期执行”?有点意思。人总是有私心的,但公道自在人心。在22Q1财报季初期,纳指快速下跌至13000点附近。再叠加俄","text":"$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ 的历史最高收盘价,即“千年大顶”,暂时定格在了2021年11月19日周五16057.44点,这也是纳指历史上唯一一次收盘高于16000点,也许正因为物极必反,下一个周一11月22日,纳指便掉头向下,开始了至今长达5个多月,甚至可能会持续更久的滚滚大熊市。为什么是这一天?是什么导致十几年的美股大牛市戛然而止?导火索是什么?答:11月22日,美股开盘时分,一则鲍威尔连任的BREAKING NEWS传遍华尔街和全世界。$NQ100指数主连 2206(NQmain)$ 火箭般飙升,但在开盘45分钟之后,便一头栽下去了,从此纳指的命运彻底转变了……鸽王连任不是好事吗?为何市场不买账?仅仅“高兴”了45分钟就“集体叛变”了?前因后果说来很复杂,但可以简单总结一下:在此之前,通胀已经远高于2%的目标,但鲍威尔大概是为了顺利连任,每次都说“通胀是暂时的”,市场便仍然很勉强的继续看涨,以至于本来9月7日就应该已经见顶了的纳指,硬是“又续了一命”,再拉了一波至11月19日,即白宫宣布新的美联储主席的前一天;而此时11月的CPI通胀已飙升至6.2%,市场很难再相信鲍威尔的“通胀暂时论”,也更有理由担心鲍威尔会因为“位子稳了”而开始大变脸,于是在一致性预期之下,“卖事实”,纳指开始崩盘了。而鲍威尔也真的开始转变态度了,缩水、加息、缩表,一件件的提上了日程表。正印证了那句“我预期了你的预期”,然后“你按照我的预期执行”?有点意思。人总是有私心的,但公道自在人心。在22Q1财报季初期,纳指快速下跌至13000点附近。再叠加俄","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88e502321f917bc9108e59db34a8e55f","width":"632","height":"306"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bad881feadec350a0f86e4732fba0464","width":"632","height":"452"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e610813365d852b6b70aa8b0bd647739","width":"632","height":"500"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":24,"commentSize":43,"repostSize":18,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/616716148","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":75243,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3465560381212459","authorId":"3465560381212459","name":"bianjianbao","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d544156965377f2ef4d6c2c36b5ea747","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3465560381212459","authorIdStr":"3465560381212459"},"content":"相信纳指还未真正见底,因为加息缩表才刚刚开始,其破坏力还未到达巅峰,微软还未暴雷,苹果从纳指千年大顶以来更是只跌了1.77%也就挠挠痒,这俩不实质性的暴雷下跌,纳指恐怕是难以言底。这俩再跌一段,纳指跌到第4个区间,也许大概就是真的底部了。","text":"相信纳指还未真正见底,因为加息缩表才刚刚开始,其破坏力还未到达巅峰,微软还未暴雷,苹果从纳指千年大顶以来更是只跌了1.77%也就挠挠痒,这俩不实质性的暴雷下跌,纳指恐怕是难以言底。这俩再跌一段,纳指跌到第4个区间,也许大概就是真的底部了。","html":"相信纳指还未真正见底,因为加息缩表才刚刚开始,其破坏力还未到达巅峰,微软还未暴雷,苹果从纳指千年大顶以来更是只跌了1.77%也就挠挠痒,这俩不实质性的暴雷下跌,纳指恐怕是难以言底。这俩再跌一段,纳指跌到第4个区间,也许大概就是真的底部了。"}],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":268705133867152,"gmtCreate":1706632649063,"gmtModify":1706632651180,"author":{"id":"3463446769405484","authorId":"3463446769405484","name":"赌搏","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b84db6b69ddd9a2009dd889301c66ea5","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3463446769405484","authorIdStr":"3463446769405484"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FUBO\">$fuboTV Inc.(FUBO)$ </a> 大队长呢?😅","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FUBO\">$fuboTV Inc.(FUBO)$ </a> 大队长呢?😅","text":"$fuboTV Inc.(FUBO)$ 大队长呢?😅","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":12,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/268705133867152","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3652,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3569968827736584","authorId":"3569968827736584","name":"我只有100股伯克希尔A","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/959b635efbd15106fc3d97287be36473","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3569968827736584","authorIdStr":"3569968827736584"},"content":"@陈友谅 [贱笑][贱笑][贱笑]先反省自己","text":"@陈友谅 [贱笑][贱笑][贱笑]先反省自己","html":"@陈友谅 [贱笑][贱笑][贱笑]先反省自己"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":312325266,"gmtCreate":1612037021055,"gmtModify":1703757501689,"author":{"id":"3463446769405484","authorId":"3463446769405484","name":"赌搏","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b84db6b69ddd9a2009dd889301c66ea5","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3463446769405484","authorIdStr":"3463446769405484"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">$游戏驿站(GME)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BB\">$黑莓(BB)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC院线(AMC)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>光是GME的call就有120亿,而盈透的现金只有90亿。如果天天像这么拉升,那些做空的机构基金、以及罗宾汉盈透这样的券商,都有倒闭的风险,而且即使倒闭了也得付钱,因为期权是合约,必须履行,机构基金们没钱付,券商就得兜底掏钱,所以券商们不得不对散户限购,机构们必须靠抛售其它股票来补充保证金。股市持续大跌,流动性危机,束手无策?浓浓的股灾也许即将来临……","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">$游戏驿站(GME)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BB\">$黑莓(BB)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC院线(AMC)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>光是GME的call就有120亿,而盈透的现金只有90亿。如果天天像这么拉升,那些做空的机构基金、以及罗宾汉盈透这样的券商,都有倒闭的风险,而且即使倒闭了也得付钱,因为期权是合约,必须履行,机构基金们没钱付,券商就得兜底掏钱,所以券商们不得不对散户限购,机构们必须靠抛售其它股票来补充保证金。股市持续大跌,流动性危机,束手无策?浓浓的股灾也许即将来临……","text":"$游戏驿站(GME)$$黑莓(BB)$$AMC院线(AMC)$$苹果(AAPL)$$特斯拉(TSLA)$光是GME的call就有120亿,而盈透的现金只有90亿。如果天天像这么拉升,那些做空的机构基金、以及罗宾汉盈透这样的券商,都有倒闭的风险,而且即使倒闭了也得付钱,因为期权是合约,必须履行,机构基金们没钱付,券商就得兜底掏钱,所以券商们不得不对散户限购,机构们必须靠抛售其它股票来补充保证金。股市持续大跌,流动性危机,束手无策?浓浓的股灾也许即将来临……","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":17,"commentSize":53,"repostSize":2,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/312325266","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":20376,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3563140991934227","authorId":"3563140991934227","name":"Fred_6810","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbe236f23155302a4dcecbf04d2e9040","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3563140991934227","authorIdStr":"3563140991934227"},"content":"call 是权利,不是义务。 可以被放弃。用call的规模来衡量,最多表示一个人气。菜市场大妈水平的,网红带货而已。 炒空气币的套路。 怎么证明空气币有价值, 给脑残晒 炒空气币 争了千万刀, 脑残粉就跟上了。 [喷血] 美国历史上 垃圾股,垃圾债。爆炒 不是第一次。三个月后见。","text":"call 是权利,不是义务。 可以被放弃。用call的规模来衡量,最多表示一个人气。菜市场大妈水平的,网红带货而已。 炒空气币的套路。 怎么证明空气币有价值, 给脑残晒 炒空气币 争了千万刀, 脑残粉就跟上了。 [喷血] 美国历史上 垃圾股,垃圾债。爆炒 不是第一次。三个月后见。","html":"call 是权利,不是义务。 可以被放弃。用call的规模来衡量,最多表示一个人气。菜市场大妈水平的,网红带货而已。 炒空气币的套路。 怎么证明空气币有价值, 给脑残晒 炒空气币 争了千万刀, 脑残粉就跟上了。 [喷血] 美国历史上 垃圾股,垃圾债。爆炒 不是第一次。三个月后见。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":90338,"gmtCreate":1504004440655,"gmtModify":1704880755061,"author":{"id":"3463446769405484","authorId":"3463446769405484","name":"赌搏","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b84db6b69ddd9a2009dd889301c66ea5","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3463446769405484","authorIdStr":"3463446769405484"},"themes":[],"title":"在股市里挣到钱了的,举个手看一下","htmlText":"炒股1个多月以来,曾经血亏20个点,至今徘徊在不赚不亏的样子。炒股真的很累,不仅消耗时间精力,而且到处都是坑,错一步都会错很远。#中概股血崩#$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ $微博(WB)$ $好未来(TAL)$$易车网(BITA)$ $京东(JD)$ $网易(NTES)$ 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a>","text":"中国股市,长达11年的恒古未有之大牛市,正式拉开帷幕,上证指数:15000点,恒生指数:60000点$中国海外互联网ETF-KraneShares(KWEB)$$恒生指数(HSI)$$恒生科技指数(HSTECH)$$上证指数(000001.SH)$$阿里巴巴(BABA)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22c3c14b0cf37911130454ef0e25bb33","width":"1080","height":"2176"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":20,"repostSize":13,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/617560431","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":11514,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3463446769405484","authorId":"3463446769405484","name":"赌搏","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b84db6b69ddd9a2009dd889301c66ea5","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3463446769405484","authorIdStr":"3463446769405484"},"content":"有史以来最大的牛市!! 中国股市,长达11年的恒古未有之大牛市,正式拉开帷幕,上证指数:15000点,恒生指数:60000点 $上证指数(000001.SH)$ $恒生指数(HSI)$ $中国海外互联网ETF-KraneShares(KWEB)$ $阿里巴巴(BABA)$ $恒生科技指数(HSTECH)$","text":"有史以来最大的牛市!! 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a>","text":"$亚马逊(AMZN)$期权IV太高了!高的吓人。杀无赦~~$苹果(AAPL)$$微软(MSFT)$$特斯拉(TSLA)$$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":41,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/109732540","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3499,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3555496128254996","authorId":"3555496128254996","name":"谨谨慎慎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2fccf094ed87b6d0296e8f11380efb5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3555496128254996","authorIdStr":"3555496128254996"},"content":"能涨到3800吗[笑哭]","text":"能涨到3800吗[笑哭]","html":"能涨到3800吗[笑哭]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":88741,"gmtCreate":1503544416984,"gmtModify":1704880571503,"author":{"id":"3463446769405484","authorId":"3463446769405484","name":"赌搏","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b84db6b69ddd9a2009dd889301c66ea5","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3463446769405484","authorIdStr":"3463446769405484"},"themes":[],"title":"为什么我至今还在认为中概股要跌?","htmlText":"$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ 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好像我真的错了,我这么穷是有道理的!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":42,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/88741","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1847,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3464651797650675","authorId":"3464651797650675","name":"宝贝嘟嘟","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3464651797650675","authorIdStr":"3464651797650675"},"content":"真的越来越看不懂,baba就不说了,摊子大,横向扩张的帅,利润好,预期和利润都有,wb呢?2-3亿一个Q,传统的广告收入,横向没看到有啥特别的动作,唯独就是垄断短文社交,看看FB,利润高10倍一个Q,再加上并购和不要脸的抄袭,和腾讯比比也就差个王者荣耀了,看看今年才涨了多少?怎么感觉wb都是有坑。。。。","text":"真的越来越看不懂,baba就不说了,摊子大,横向扩张的帅,利润好,预期和利润都有,wb呢?2-3亿一个Q,传统的广告收入,横向没看到有啥特别的动作,唯独就是垄断短文社交,看看FB,利润高10倍一个Q,再加上并购和不要脸的抄袭,和腾讯比比也就差个王者荣耀了,看看今年才涨了多少?怎么感觉wb都是有坑。。。。","html":"真的越来越看不懂,baba就不说了,摊子大,横向扩张的帅,利润好,预期和利润都有,wb呢?2-3亿一个Q,传统的广告收入,横向没看到有啥特别的动作,唯独就是垄断短文社交,看看FB,利润高10倍一个Q,再加上并购和不要脸的抄袭,和腾讯比比也就差个王者荣耀了,看看今年才涨了多少?怎么感觉wb都是有坑。。。。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":195066959839472,"gmtCreate":1688630787753,"gmtModify":1688630788890,"author":{"id":"3463446769405484","authorId":"3463446769405484","name":"赌搏","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b84db6b69ddd9a2009dd889301c66ea5","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3463446769405484","authorIdStr":"3463446769405484"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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