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Jori
03-11
$Bilibili Inc.(BILI)$
强大直觉
Jori
2021-01-19
打新在即,快手IPO
一直以来,市场上对快手与抖音的数据有个大概印象,快手日活3亿,抖音日活4亿。但实际的差距要更大一些,根据快手的招股书,截止到2020年上半年,快手APP的用户量为2.57亿(算上小程序的用户后才勉强3亿);而抖音早在2019年末就实现日活突破4亿。$在用户量上,快手的日活相当于2019年的抖音的65%左右。而在广告的创收上,快手一直慢抖音一年左右的时间,为此用2019年抖音的情况来做对比比较恰当。在2019年,日活4亿的抖音在这一年的整体收入约700亿,其中广告收入占500多亿。如果按照65%的用户占比,那么对应的快手的广告收入在2020年应为325亿。但根据今年快手上半年的收入,推算其全年的广告收入推算为200亿。差距的125亿,很可能来自于销售团队成熟度、抖音品牌加成,以及开机大图的差距。(目前快手还未开放这个广告位)快手的广告营收还有巨大的增长空间,无论是提高售卖率,还是多开放一个开机大图的点位,新增100亿的广告营收似乎难度不算很大。实际上,按照了解到的情况,抖音在2020年的广告增长继续实现了翻倍,所以2021年快手的广告收入完全可以继续翻倍到400亿,那么就会多出来270亿美金的估值,也就是270/500=54%的增长空间(前提,市场维持市盈率35倍)。总结一下,在如下的情况下:1、只要快手的用户正常增长,维持市场对其的直播20%增速,广告35%增速度信心。2、即便电商、游戏都没做起来,直播收入也维持不变。那么,仅广告收入一项的潜力,就可以一年时间给快手的市值带来巨大增长空间
打新在即,快手IPO
Jori
2020-12-30
老虎陪伴我走过两年谢谢,小富即安。安安稳稳就好~😋
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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[流泪]"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":333443394,"gmtCreate":1609342474018,"gmtModify":1703738934654,"author":{"id":"3461632705536849","authorId":"3461632705536849","name":"Jori","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b7453d3e7d882b3a8c68c936c544e5c","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"老虎陪伴我走过两年谢谢,小富即安。安安稳稳就好~😋","listText":"老虎陪伴我走过两年谢谢,小富即安。安安稳稳就好~😋","text":"老虎陪伴我走过两年谢谢,小富即安。安安稳稳就好~😋","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00da42f6bfc238c08e22a3d17833743b","width":"1080","height":"2340"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/333443394","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1513,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3527667803686145","authorId":"3527667803686145","name":"社区成长助手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b7c7106b5c0c8b0037faa67439d898f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]希望您能在老虎社区玩得愉快、赚得开心!如果您想创作优质文章,请查看老虎社区创作指引","text":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]希望您能在老虎社区玩得愉快、赚得开心!如果您想创作优质文章,请查看老虎社区创作指引","html":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]希望您能在老虎社区玩得愉快、赚得开心!如果您想创作优质文章,请查看老虎社区创作指引"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":337944632,"gmtCreate":1611061298126,"gmtModify":1703747727392,"author":{"id":"3461632705536849","authorId":"3461632705536849","name":"Jori","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b7453d3e7d882b3a8c68c936c544e5c","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"title":"打新在即,快手IPO","htmlText":"一直以来,市场上对快手与抖音的数据有个大概印象,快手日活3亿,抖音日活4亿。但实际的差距要更大一些,根据快手的招股书,截止到2020年上半年,快手APP的用户量为2.57亿(算上小程序的用户后才勉强3亿);而抖音早在2019年末就实现日活突破4亿。$在用户量上,快手的日活相当于2019年的抖音的65%左右。而在广告的创收上,快手一直慢抖音一年左右的时间,为此用2019年抖音的情况来做对比比较恰当。在2019年,日活4亿的抖音在这一年的整体收入约700亿,其中广告收入占500多亿。如果按照65%的用户占比,那么对应的快手的广告收入在2020年应为325亿。但根据今年快手上半年的收入,推算其全年的广告收入推算为200亿。差距的125亿,很可能来自于销售团队成熟度、抖音品牌加成,以及开机大图的差距。(目前快手还未开放这个广告位)快手的广告营收还有巨大的增长空间,无论是提高售卖率,还是多开放一个开机大图的点位,新增100亿的广告营收似乎难度不算很大。实际上,按照了解到的情况,抖音在2020年的广告增长继续实现了翻倍,所以2021年快手的广告收入完全可以继续翻倍到400亿,那么就会多出来270亿美金的估值,也就是270/500=54%的增长空间(前提,市场维持市盈率35倍)。总结一下,在如下的情况下:1、只要快手的用户正常增长,维持市场对其的直播20%增速,广告35%增速度信心。2、即便电商、游戏都没做起来,直播收入也维持不变。那么,仅广告收入一项的潜力,就可以一年时间给快手的市值带来巨大增长空间","listText":"一直以来,市场上对快手与抖音的数据有个大概印象,快手日活3亿,抖音日活4亿。但实际的差距要更大一些,根据快手的招股书,截止到2020年上半年,快手APP的用户量为2.57亿(算上小程序的用户后才勉强3亿);而抖音早在2019年末就实现日活突破4亿。$在用户量上,快手的日活相当于2019年的抖音的65%左右。而在广告的创收上,快手一直慢抖音一年左右的时间,为此用2019年抖音的情况来做对比比较恰当。在2019年,日活4亿的抖音在这一年的整体收入约700亿,其中广告收入占500多亿。如果按照65%的用户占比,那么对应的快手的广告收入在2020年应为325亿。但根据今年快手上半年的收入,推算其全年的广告收入推算为200亿。差距的125亿,很可能来自于销售团队成熟度、抖音品牌加成,以及开机大图的差距。(目前快手还未开放这个广告位)快手的广告营收还有巨大的增长空间,无论是提高售卖率,还是多开放一个开机大图的点位,新增100亿的广告营收似乎难度不算很大。实际上,按照了解到的情况,抖音在2020年的广告增长继续实现了翻倍,所以2021年快手的广告收入完全可以继续翻倍到400亿,那么就会多出来270亿美金的估值,也就是270/500=54%的增长空间(前提,市场维持市盈率35倍)。总结一下,在如下的情况下:1、只要快手的用户正常增长,维持市场对其的直播20%增速,广告35%增速度信心。2、即便电商、游戏都没做起来,直播收入也维持不变。那么,仅广告收入一项的潜力,就可以一年时间给快手的市值带来巨大增长空间","text":"一直以来,市场上对快手与抖音的数据有个大概印象,快手日活3亿,抖音日活4亿。但实际的差距要更大一些,根据快手的招股书,截止到2020年上半年,快手APP的用户量为2.57亿(算上小程序的用户后才勉强3亿);而抖音早在2019年末就实现日活突破4亿。$在用户量上,快手的日活相当于2019年的抖音的65%左右。而在广告的创收上,快手一直慢抖音一年左右的时间,为此用2019年抖音的情况来做对比比较恰当。在2019年,日活4亿的抖音在这一年的整体收入约700亿,其中广告收入占500多亿。如果按照65%的用户占比,那么对应的快手的广告收入在2020年应为325亿。但根据今年快手上半年的收入,推算其全年的广告收入推算为200亿。差距的125亿,很可能来自于销售团队成熟度、抖音品牌加成,以及开机大图的差距。(目前快手还未开放这个广告位)快手的广告营收还有巨大的增长空间,无论是提高售卖率,还是多开放一个开机大图的点位,新增100亿的广告营收似乎难度不算很大。实际上,按照了解到的情况,抖音在2020年的广告增长继续实现了翻倍,所以2021年快手的广告收入完全可以继续翻倍到400亿,那么就会多出来270亿美金的估值,也就是270/500=54%的增长空间(前提,市场维持市盈率35倍)。总结一下,在如下的情况下:1、只要快手的用户正常增长,维持市场对其的直播20%增速,广告35%增速度信心。2、即便电商、游戏都没做起来,直播收入也维持不变。那么,仅广告收入一项的潜力,就可以一年时间给快手的市值带来巨大增长空间","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/337944632","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2901,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}