暴涨暴赚的个人主页 - 老虎社区

暴涨暴赚

暴涨暴赚

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IP属地：北京

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0勋章

03-12 09:50

亏麻了别吹

大量出王炸，已无人挡得住腾讯？

03-11 20:41

？

03-11 08:47

$南方两倍做空日经(07515)$ 做空小日子赚的钱爽

03-06

$优乐赛共享(02649)$ 归零

03-06

$比亚迪股份(01211)$ 不起飞？？？

03-05

我前几天爆买亏麻了

03-04

$腾讯控股(00700)$ 割吗

03-03

$腾讯控股(00700)$ 520没跑

02-25

全老登？

02-25

哎还在跌怎么办割吗

02-24

妈的买买买🤬🤬🤬🤬🤬🤬🤬🤬🤬🤬🤬🤬🤬🤬🤬🤬🤬🤬🤬🤬

02-24

$智谱(02513)$ 修正真快

02-24

妈的

02-23

$海致科技集团(02706)$ 海痔

02-23

？

异动解读 | 智谱致歉引发行业担忧，MINIMAX-WP盘中大跌11.34%

02-20

$腾讯控股(00700)$ 我说腾讯招错人了一堆人骂我，现在gemini的物理的yao搞出gemini3.1，腾讯的yao只会发论文

02-18

马上好运，马年账户翻倍

02-16

我后悔 100 没割肉

02-16

60见我这几十万股票要废了不打算补仓了当教训拿着

02-15

吹

Anthropic掌门人：AI技术正处于临界点，未来2-3年将决定人类未来

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18:13","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"大量出王炸，已无人挡得住腾讯？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131903391","media":"格隆汇APP","summary":"一夜之间，腾讯整个\"龙虾\"矩阵，便宣告完成，速度之快，令人咋舌。3月10日，腾讯控股高开高走，盘中涨幅一度超过7%，成交量急剧放大，隔夜美股腾讯ADR更是大涨超过10%。这不仅仅是一次产品发布，更像是一颗扔进深水的炸弹，市场突然意识到，那个在这场AI浪潮中一度被认为\"总是磨磨蹭蹭\"、\"快掉队了\"的腾讯，要后来居上了。更糟糕的是，随着AI的出现，腾讯大厦的裂痕在若隐若现。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>腾讯，终于出手了！</p><p>刚发布了全场景AI智能体WorkBuddy，趁着龙虾热，一口气又推出多个&#34;龙虾&#34;智能体。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/700a373004bf801ff8b709d6eb9ec1d5\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"879\" tg-height=\"684\"/></p><p>一夜之间，腾讯整个&#34;龙虾&#34;矩阵，便宣告完成，速度之快，令人咋舌。</p><p>能够与之比速的，要算股价了。</p><p>3月10日，腾讯控股高开高走，盘中涨幅一度超过7%，成交量急剧放大，隔夜美股腾讯ADR更是大涨超过10%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3d84d49439c8c61ffe73888bf5a82f2\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"849\" tg-height=\"492\"/></p><p>妥妥的一把久违的肾上腺素飙升。</p><p>这不仅仅是一次产品发布，更像是一颗扔进深水的炸弹，市场突然意识到，那个在这场AI浪潮中一度被认为&#34;总是磨磨蹭蹭&#34;、&#34;快掉队了&#34;的腾讯，要后来居上了。</p><h2 id=\"id_2442957693\">01、落后诟病</h2><p>在ChatGPT引爆全球AI热潮的初期，腾讯的表现确实令人失望。</p><p>与OpenAI、Google乃至国内的百度、阿里巴巴相比，腾讯在生成式AI领域的声音相对微弱，被市场贴上了&#34;保守&#34;、&#34;缺乏AI基因&#34;的标签，<strong>估值长期被压制。</strong></p><p>这种质疑并非毫无道理。</p><p>长期以来，腾讯的业务重心集中在社交、游戏、内容等消费互联网领域，虽然内部也有AILab等研究机构，但更多是支撑型而非战略性的投入。</p><p><strong>更重要的是，凭借社交媒体上巨量流量优势，腾讯似乎也不需要去开荒，反而是别人开了荒，种好地，他再去摘果子就可以了。</strong></p><p>虽然总是会被人diss，但这难道不是低成本撬动高收益杠杆的完美案例吗？</p><p>不过，现在情况发生了变化。</p><p>腾讯以一种近乎激进的速度，密集推出了一系列智能体产品，覆盖了办公、教育、金融、医疗、娱乐等多个垂直领域。</p><p>这些智能体被网友戏称为&#34;龙虾&#34;，一方面因为数量众多、品类齐全，另一方面也因为它们在各自的细分领域展现出了惊人的能力。</p><p>以办公智能体为例，腾讯推出的&#34;文档智能助手&#34;能够自动完成文档起草、数据分析、PPT制作等任务；在教育领域，&#34;AI私教&#34;可以根据学生的学习进度自动生成个性化练习题；在金融领域，&#34;智能理财顾问&#34;能够基于用户的财务状况提供投资建议。</p><p>这些产品并非简单的技术展示，而是真正解决了用户的痛点问题。</p><p>更令人惊讶的是，这些智能体的推出速度极快。</p><p>从宣布立项到产品上线，平均周期不超过3个月，这在以往腾讯的产品迭代节奏中是极为罕见的。</p><p>这种&#34;闪电战&#34;式的打法，彻底颠覆了市场对腾讯&#34;慢&#34;的刻板印象。</p><p>3月10日，据The Information报道，四位知情人士透露，腾讯正为旗下应用微信秘密开发一款AI智能体，该项目被列为公司高优先级机密计划，启动时间至少可追溯至去年上半年。</p><p>市场这才恍然大悟，原来腾讯不是&#34;慢&#34;，而是躲起来&#34;练功&#34;了。</p><h2 id=\"id_2760158137\">02、估值压制</h2><p>腾讯股价暴涨，引发了另外一层热议：</p><p><strong>&#34;龙虾&#34;智能体上桌了，能否揭开压在腾讯估值上的&#34;锅盖&#34;？</strong></p><p>要知道，在这一轮上涨前，腾讯的股价已经跌破500，回到去年7月份的水平，距离10月份的高位，跌幅达到28%，动态估值则跌到接近18倍，放在过去10年里，历史分位点为28%。</p><p>再这么跌下去，股东可要掀桌子了！</p><p>要回答这个问题，就得先搞清楚压估值的&#34;锅盖&#34;到底是什么。</p><p>一直以来，腾讯的估值主要基于其在社交、游戏领域的统治地位、微信生态的商业化潜力，以及对外投资网络的价值。</p><p>其实，最终都可以浓缩为四个字：<strong>流量入口。</strong></p><p>然而，随着移动互联网红利的见顶，这种估值逻辑面临天花板。</p><p>更糟糕的是，随着AI的出现，腾讯大厦的裂痕在若隐若现。</p><p>就说流量入口的地位吧。</p><p>微信是连接人与人的社交网络，顺便收编办公、购物、支付等等流量入口，但问题是，AI其实也可以成为另类的社交网络，而且现在已经出现了一些聊天软件，对方是一个AI虚拟人，类似于电影《her》那种，优势是她更&#34;懂&#34;你。</p><p>而随着AI的进化，和一个更&#34;懂&#34;你的&#34;SHE&#34;聊天，你可能就会减少刷微信、看好友动态的时间。</p><p>这只是其中一个案例，无可否认的趋势是，随着AI的发展，用户会将习惯&#34;打开微信&#34;转向&#34;打开AI APP&#34;，那微信作为移动互联网第一入口的地位，就迎来了前所未有的挑战。</p><p>截至2026年2月，字节豆包月活已达3.15亿，阿里通义千问2.02亿，而腾讯元宝仅1.09亿。</p><p>社交流量入口被弱化，其附带的办公、购物、支付等等流量入口会跟着被弱化，整个生态系的商业化潜力也会随之弱化。</p><p>互联网，流量入口能够代表的东西太多太多了，一旦入口被人抢了，那就是春去秋来了。</p><p>前车之鉴，就是搜索引擎。</p><p>PC互联网时代，BAIDU是流量入口，到了移动互联网，APP成了新的流量入口，很多入口根本不需要通过BAIDU就可以进入，而且更加便捷。</p><p>结果，BAIDU的市值，2011年高峰期是460亿美元，现在最新的市值是431亿美元。</p><h2 id=\"id_4233226471\">03、估值重构？</h2><p>面对流量被AI弱化的风险，腾讯的反击不是去和字节拼大模型，和阿里拼GPU，拼独立App，而是将AI能力原生注入微信。</p><p>这里面的阳谋，是这样的：</p><p><strong>首先，让你加AI智能体为微信&#34;新好友&#34;。</strong></p><p>这些智能体将以对话形式嵌入用户的聊天列表，等同于微信里多了一个AI好友。</p><p>这个设计的精妙之处在于，完全符合用户已有的使用习惯，用户不需要下载新App、不需要学习新交互，微信还是那个微信，只是多了一个新好友。</p><p><strong>第二，让AI智能体成为微信服务的&#34;统一调度员&#34;。</strong></p><p>该智能体的核心能力是全面接入微信生态内数百万个小程序，用户只需下达自然语言指令，AI就能自动完成打车、外卖、订票、缴费等复杂任务。</p><p>这意味着，微信小程序过去八年积累的生态壁垒，并没有消失。</p><p><strong>第三，让你还是离不开微信（AI智能体）。 </strong></p><p>过去，微信的入口价值体现在&#34;用户主动来&#34;，用户打开微信聊天、刷朋友圈、搜小程序。</p><p>而AI智能体的加入，让微信的入口价值升级为&#34;客官请吩咐，小的马上去做&#34;。</p><p>后面两点的厉害之处就在于，用户仍然需要从微信入口，各种想法、行为、数据等等，都留在微信的生态系内，结果也在微信系统内完成。</p><p><strong>换句话说，微信依然是流量的入口，是流量的过程，也是流量的终点，用户并不需要绕过其他APP。</strong></p><p>现在，腾讯已密集推出面向个人本地操控的QClaw、面向企业协作的企业微信机器人、以及多平台办公助手WorkBuddy。三款产品均未采用独立App形态，而是直接嵌入微信、企业微信等高频应用，而且微信团队也没有完全押注腾讯自研的混元模型，而是同步测试智谱、阿里、DeepSeek等外部模型及自研小模型，以确保在复杂多步骤任务处理中的稳定性。</p><p>虽然效果如何还需要时间验证，但至少从逻辑上讲，如果最终微信能够守住流量入口的地位，那它就守住了自己的&#34;基本盘&#34;，<strong>估值中枢继续下跌的概率就变小；</strong></p><p>如果能顺势将微信从&#34;社交工具&#34;升级为&#34;智能操作系统&#34;，<strong>那估值中枢反而有机会迎来一波提升。</strong></p><p>毕竟，投资者现在最关心的，是能否将&#34;技术储备&#34;转向&#34;商业化落地&#34;，说白了就是<strong>你能用AI赚多少钱。</strong></p><p>而微信月活用户超过13亿，小程序日活超过4亿，公众号超过2000万个，就是现有的天然商业化土壤。</p><p>为了方便说明，我们还可以简单算一笔账，假设腾讯推出10个智能体产品，月活用户达到3000万，付费率提升到20%，客单价提高到30元，那么每个智能体的月营收可达1.8亿元，10个智能体就是18亿元的月收入，年化营收超过200亿元。</p><p>这还只是智能体本身的直接收入，如果考虑到由此带动的其他业务增长（如金融、电商等），整体收益将更加大。</p><p>在如此的业绩增长预期面前，那个压在估值上的&#34;盖子&#34;，恐怕很难压住了吧？</p><h2 id=\"id_2738635433\">04、结语</h2><p>看看龙虾热潮，再看看流量入口争夺战，可以得出一个前瞻性的结论（可能还需要时间验证）：</p><p><strong>AI可以消灭超级入口，也可以重塑超级入口的形态。</strong></p><p>看懂了这一点，也就看得懂了腾讯的战略意图，它依然试图用最低的成本（智能体开发成本、运营成本低），然后基于自己强大的流量和生态系统的赋能，去撬动更高的收益杠杆。</p><p>于竞争对手而言，当他们试图用独立App抢夺微信的流量入口时，微信却选择让AI&#34;住进&#34;自己体内。</p><p>于14亿微信用户而言，既可以找人聊天，又可以找AI办事。当那个置顶在消息列表里的AI好友，能够调用数百万小程序完成一切生活服务时，你还会去打开其他APP吗？</p><p>腾讯被各种羡慕嫉妒恨的&#34;从不争先，但总能后来居上&#34;的叙事，说不准会在AI时代再来一次。</p><p>这大概就是资金冲进去抢腾讯的原因吧。</p><p><strong>当然了，市场也不乏冷静的声音。</strong></p><p>今天，腾讯股价高开低走，下午还翻绿了，最终画面定格在一根大阴线，虽然可以甩锅短期市场情绪的冲高回落，有资金见好就收，套牢盘趁机跑路，但也证明了，故事再好，估值再抢跑，最后还需要&#34;成绩单&#34;。</p><p>关于这个，咱不也过度预测了，腾讯的智能体，到底是能端上五星级大酒店的高溢价大龙虾，还是只能上宵夜排档的平民小龙虾，等后面的数据验证吧。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" 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.h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n大量出王炸，已无人挡得住腾讯？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/11\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d06797dbcc3b4b9e839c351ca5a14e4d);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">格隆汇APP </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-03-11 18:13</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>腾讯，终于出手了！</p><p>刚发布了全场景AI智能体WorkBuddy，趁着龙虾热，一口气又推出多个&#34;龙虾&#34;智能体。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/700a373004bf801ff8b709d6eb9ec1d5\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"879\" tg-height=\"684\"/></p><p>一夜之间，腾讯整个&#34;龙虾&#34;矩阵，便宣告完成，速度之快，令人咋舌。</p><p>能够与之比速的，要算股价了。</p><p>3月10日，腾讯控股高开高走，盘中涨幅一度超过7%，成交量急剧放大，隔夜美股腾讯ADR更是大涨超过10%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3d84d49439c8c61ffe73888bf5a82f2\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"849\" tg-height=\"492\"/></p><p>妥妥的一把久违的肾上腺素飙升。</p><p>这不仅仅是一次产品发布，更像是一颗扔进深水的炸弹，市场突然意识到，那个在这场AI浪潮中一度被认为&#34;总是磨磨蹭蹭&#34;、&#34;快掉队了&#34;的腾讯，要后来居上了。</p><h2 id=\"id_2442957693\">01、落后诟病</h2><p>在ChatGPT引爆全球AI热潮的初期，腾讯的表现确实令人失望。</p><p>与OpenAI、Google乃至国内的百度、阿里巴巴相比，腾讯在生成式AI领域的声音相对微弱，被市场贴上了&#34;保守&#34;、&#34;缺乏AI基因&#34;的标签，<strong>估值长期被压制。</strong></p><p>这种质疑并非毫无道理。</p><p>长期以来，腾讯的业务重心集中在社交、游戏、内容等消费互联网领域，虽然内部也有AILab等研究机构，但更多是支撑型而非战略性的投入。</p><p><strong>更重要的是，凭借社交媒体上巨量流量优势，腾讯似乎也不需要去开荒，反而是别人开了荒，种好地，他再去摘果子就可以了。</strong></p><p>虽然总是会被人diss，但这难道不是低成本撬动高收益杠杆的完美案例吗？</p><p>不过，现在情况发生了变化。</p><p>腾讯以一种近乎激进的速度，密集推出了一系列智能体产品，覆盖了办公、教育、金融、医疗、娱乐等多个垂直领域。</p><p>这些智能体被网友戏称为&#34;龙虾&#34;，一方面因为数量众多、品类齐全，另一方面也因为它们在各自的细分领域展现出了惊人的能力。</p><p>以办公智能体为例，腾讯推出的&#34;文档智能助手&#34;能够自动完成文档起草、数据分析、PPT制作等任务；在教育领域，&#34;AI私教&#34;可以根据学生的学习进度自动生成个性化练习题；在金融领域，&#34;智能理财顾问&#34;能够基于用户的财务状况提供投资建议。</p><p>这些产品并非简单的技术展示，而是真正解决了用户的痛点问题。</p><p>更令人惊讶的是，这些智能体的推出速度极快。</p><p>从宣布立项到产品上线，平均周期不超过3个月，这在以往腾讯的产品迭代节奏中是极为罕见的。</p><p>这种&#34;闪电战&#34;式的打法，彻底颠覆了市场对腾讯&#34;慢&#34;的刻板印象。</p><p>3月10日，据The Information报道，四位知情人士透露，腾讯正为旗下应用微信秘密开发一款AI智能体，该项目被列为公司高优先级机密计划，启动时间至少可追溯至去年上半年。</p><p>市场这才恍然大悟，原来腾讯不是&#34;慢&#34;，而是躲起来&#34;练功&#34;了。</p><h2 id=\"id_2760158137\">02、估值压制</h2><p>腾讯股价暴涨，引发了另外一层热议：</p><p><strong>&#34;龙虾&#34;智能体上桌了，能否揭开压在腾讯估值上的&#34;锅盖&#34;？</strong></p><p>要知道，在这一轮上涨前，腾讯的股价已经跌破500，回到去年7月份的水平，距离10月份的高位，跌幅达到28%，动态估值则跌到接近18倍，放在过去10年里，历史分位点为28%。</p><p>再这么跌下去，股东可要掀桌子了！</p><p>要回答这个问题，就得先搞清楚压估值的&#34;锅盖&#34;到底是什么。</p><p>一直以来，腾讯的估值主要基于其在社交、游戏领域的统治地位、微信生态的商业化潜力，以及对外投资网络的价值。</p><p>其实，最终都可以浓缩为四个字：<strong>流量入口。</strong></p><p>然而，随着移动互联网红利的见顶，这种估值逻辑面临天花板。</p><p>更糟糕的是，随着AI的出现，腾讯大厦的裂痕在若隐若现。</p><p>就说流量入口的地位吧。</p><p>微信是连接人与人的社交网络，顺便收编办公、购物、支付等等流量入口，但问题是，AI其实也可以成为另类的社交网络，而且现在已经出现了一些聊天软件，对方是一个AI虚拟人，类似于电影《her》那种，优势是她更&#34;懂&#34;你。</p><p>而随着AI的进化，和一个更&#34;懂&#34;你的&#34;SHE&#34;聊天，你可能就会减少刷微信、看好友动态的时间。</p><p>这只是其中一个案例，无可否认的趋势是，随着AI的发展，用户会将习惯&#34;打开微信&#34;转向&#34;打开AI APP&#34;，那微信作为移动互联网第一入口的地位，就迎来了前所未有的挑战。</p><p>截至2026年2月，字节豆包月活已达3.15亿，阿里通义千问2.02亿，而腾讯元宝仅1.09亿。</p><p>社交流量入口被弱化，其附带的办公、购物、支付等等流量入口会跟着被弱化，整个生态系的商业化潜力也会随之弱化。</p><p>互联网，流量入口能够代表的东西太多太多了，一旦入口被人抢了，那就是春去秋来了。</p><p>前车之鉴，就是搜索引擎。</p><p>PC互联网时代，BAIDU是流量入口，到了移动互联网，APP成了新的流量入口，很多入口根本不需要通过BAIDU就可以进入，而且更加便捷。</p><p>结果，BAIDU的市值，2011年高峰期是460亿美元，现在最新的市值是431亿美元。</p><h2 id=\"id_4233226471\">03、估值重构？</h2><p>面对流量被AI弱化的风险，腾讯的反击不是去和字节拼大模型，和阿里拼GPU，拼独立App，而是将AI能力原生注入微信。</p><p>这里面的阳谋，是这样的：</p><p><strong>首先，让你加AI智能体为微信&#34;新好友&#34;。</strong></p><p>这些智能体将以对话形式嵌入用户的聊天列表，等同于微信里多了一个AI好友。</p><p>这个设计的精妙之处在于，完全符合用户已有的使用习惯，用户不需要下载新App、不需要学习新交互，微信还是那个微信，只是多了一个新好友。</p><p><strong>第二，让AI智能体成为微信服务的&#34;统一调度员&#34;。</strong></p><p>该智能体的核心能力是全面接入微信生态内数百万个小程序，用户只需下达自然语言指令，AI就能自动完成打车、外卖、订票、缴费等复杂任务。</p><p>这意味着，微信小程序过去八年积累的生态壁垒，并没有消失。</p><p><strong>第三，让你还是离不开微信（AI智能体）。 </strong></p><p>过去，微信的入口价值体现在&#34;用户主动来&#34;，用户打开微信聊天、刷朋友圈、搜小程序。</p><p>而AI智能体的加入，让微信的入口价值升级为&#34;客官请吩咐，小的马上去做&#34;。</p><p>后面两点的厉害之处就在于，用户仍然需要从微信入口，各种想法、行为、数据等等，都留在微信的生态系内，结果也在微信系统内完成。</p><p><strong>换句话说，微信依然是流量的入口，是流量的过程，也是流量的终点，用户并不需要绕过其他APP。</strong></p><p>现在，腾讯已密集推出面向个人本地操控的QClaw、面向企业协作的企业微信机器人、以及多平台办公助手WorkBuddy。三款产品均未采用独立App形态，而是直接嵌入微信、企业微信等高频应用，而且微信团队也没有完全押注腾讯自研的混元模型，而是同步测试智谱、阿里、DeepSeek等外部模型及自研小模型，以确保在复杂多步骤任务处理中的稳定性。</p><p>虽然效果如何还需要时间验证，但至少从逻辑上讲，如果最终微信能够守住流量入口的地位，那它就守住了自己的&#34;基本盘&#34;，<strong>估值中枢继续下跌的概率就变小；</strong></p><p>如果能顺势将微信从&#34;社交工具&#34;升级为&#34;智能操作系统&#34;，<strong>那估值中枢反而有机会迎来一波提升。</strong></p><p>毕竟，投资者现在最关心的，是能否将&#34;技术储备&#34;转向&#34;商业化落地&#34;，说白了就是<strong>你能用AI赚多少钱。</strong></p><p>而微信月活用户超过13亿，小程序日活超过4亿，公众号超过2000万个，就是现有的天然商业化土壤。</p><p>为了方便说明，我们还可以简单算一笔账，假设腾讯推出10个智能体产品，月活用户达到3000万，付费率提升到20%，客单价提高到30元，那么每个智能体的月营收可达1.8亿元，10个智能体就是18亿元的月收入，年化营收超过200亿元。</p><p>这还只是智能体本身的直接收入，如果考虑到由此带动的其他业务增长（如金融、电商等），整体收益将更加大。</p><p>在如此的业绩增长预期面前，那个压在估值上的&#34;盖子&#34;，恐怕很难压住了吧？</p><h2 id=\"id_2738635433\">04、结语</h2><p>看看龙虾热潮，再看看流量入口争夺战，可以得出一个前瞻性的结论（可能还需要时间验证）：</p><p><strong>AI可以消灭超级入口，也可以重塑超级入口的形态。</strong></p><p>看懂了这一点，也就看得懂了腾讯的战略意图，它依然试图用最低的成本（智能体开发成本、运营成本低），然后基于自己强大的流量和生态系统的赋能，去撬动更高的收益杠杆。</p><p>于竞争对手而言，当他们试图用独立App抢夺微信的流量入口时，微信却选择让AI&#34;住进&#34;自己体内。</p><p>于14亿微信用户而言，既可以找人聊天，又可以找AI办事。当那个置顶在消息列表里的AI好友，能够调用数百万小程序完成一切生活服务时，你还会去打开其他APP吗？</p><p>腾讯被各种羡慕嫉妒恨的&#34;从不争先，但总能后来居上&#34;的叙事，说不准会在AI时代再来一次。</p><p>这大概就是资金冲进去抢腾讯的原因吧。</p><p><strong>当然了，市场也不乏冷静的声音。</strong></p><p>今天，腾讯股价高开低走，下午还翻绿了，最终画面定格在一根大阴线，虽然可以甩锅短期市场情绪的冲高回落，有资金见好就收，套牢盘趁机跑路，但也证明了，故事再好，估值再抢跑，最后还需要&#34;成绩单&#34;。</p><p>关于这个，咱不也过度预测了，腾讯的智能体，到底是能端上五星级大酒店的高溢价大龙虾，还是只能上宵夜排档的平民小龙虾，等后面的数据验证吧。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7799eeb7043b8caaf3d109c3b13109e","relate_stocks":{"00700":"腾讯控股"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131903391","content_text":"腾讯，终于出手了！刚发布了全场景AI智能体WorkBuddy，趁着龙虾热，一口气又推出多个\"龙虾\"智能体。一夜之间，腾讯整个\"龙虾\"矩阵，便宣告完成，速度之快，令人咋舌。能够与之比速的，要算股价了。3月10日，腾讯控股高开高走，盘中涨幅一度超过7%，成交量急剧放大，隔夜美股腾讯ADR更是大涨超过10%。妥妥的一把久违的肾上腺素飙升。这不仅仅是一次产品发布，更像是一颗扔进深水的炸弹，市场突然意识到，那个在这场AI浪潮中一度被认为\"总是磨磨蹭蹭\"、\"快掉队了\"的腾讯，要后来居上了。01、落后诟病在ChatGPT引爆全球AI热潮的初期，腾讯的表现确实令人失望。与OpenAI、Google乃至国内的百度、阿里巴巴相比，腾讯在生成式AI领域的声音相对微弱，被市场贴上了\"保守\"、\"缺乏AI基因\"的标签，估值长期被压制。这种质疑并非毫无道理。长期以来，腾讯的业务重心集中在社交、游戏、内容等消费互联网领域，虽然内部也有AILab等研究机构，但更多是支撑型而非战略性的投入。更重要的是，凭借社交媒体上巨量流量优势，腾讯似乎也不需要去开荒，反而是别人开了荒，种好地，他再去摘果子就可以了。虽然总是会被人diss，但这难道不是低成本撬动高收益杠杆的完美案例吗？不过，现在情况发生了变化。腾讯以一种近乎激进的速度，密集推出了一系列智能体产品，覆盖了办公、教育、金融、医疗、娱乐等多个垂直领域。这些智能体被网友戏称为\"龙虾\"，一方面因为数量众多、品类齐全，另一方面也因为它们在各自的细分领域展现出了惊人的能力。以办公智能体为例，腾讯推出的\"文档智能助手\"能够自动完成文档起草、数据分析、PPT制作等任务；在教育领域，\"AI私教\"可以根据学生的学习进度自动生成个性化练习题；在金融领域，\"智能理财顾问\"能够基于用户的财务状况提供投资建议。这些产品并非简单的技术展示，而是真正解决了用户的痛点问题。更令人惊讶的是，这些智能体的推出速度极快。从宣布立项到产品上线，平均周期不超过3个月，这在以往腾讯的产品迭代节奏中是极为罕见的。这种\"闪电战\"式的打法，彻底颠覆了市场对腾讯\"慢\"的刻板印象。3月10日，据The Information报道，四位知情人士透露，腾讯正为旗下应用微信秘密开发一款AI智能体，该项目被列为公司高优先级机密计划，启动时间至少可追溯至去年上半年。市场这才恍然大悟，原来腾讯不是\"慢\"，而是躲起来\"练功\"了。02、估值压制腾讯股价暴涨，引发了另外一层热议：\"龙虾\"智能体上桌了，能否揭开压在腾讯估值上的\"锅盖\"？要知道，在这一轮上涨前，腾讯的股价已经跌破500，回到去年7月份的水平，距离10月份的高位，跌幅达到28%，动态估值则跌到接近18倍，放在过去10年里，历史分位点为28%。再这么跌下去，股东可要掀桌子了！要回答这个问题，就得先搞清楚压估值的\"锅盖\"到底是什么。一直以来，腾讯的估值主要基于其在社交、游戏领域的统治地位、微信生态的商业化潜力，以及对外投资网络的价值。其实，最终都可以浓缩为四个字：流量入口。然而，随着移动互联网红利的见顶，这种估值逻辑面临天花板。更糟糕的是，随着AI的出现，腾讯大厦的裂痕在若隐若现。就说流量入口的地位吧。微信是连接人与人的社交网络，顺便收编办公、购物、支付等等流量入口，但问题是，AI其实也可以成为另类的社交网络，而且现在已经出现了一些聊天软件，对方是一个AI虚拟人，类似于电影《her》那种，优势是她更\"懂\"你。而随着AI的进化，和一个更\"懂\"你的\"SHE\"聊天，你可能就会减少刷微信、看好友动态的时间。这只是其中一个案例，无可否认的趋势是，随着AI的发展，用户会将习惯\"打开微信\"转向\"打开AI APP\"，那微信作为移动互联网第一入口的地位，就迎来了前所未有的挑战。截至2026年2月，字节豆包月活已达3.15亿，阿里通义千问2.02亿，而腾讯元宝仅1.09亿。社交流量入口被弱化，其附带的办公、购物、支付等等流量入口会跟着被弱化，整个生态系的商业化潜力也会随之弱化。互联网，流量入口能够代表的东西太多太多了，一旦入口被人抢了，那就是春去秋来了。前车之鉴，就是搜索引擎。PC互联网时代，BAIDU是流量入口，到了移动互联网，APP成了新的流量入口，很多入口根本不需要通过BAIDU就可以进入，而且更加便捷。结果，BAIDU的市值，2011年高峰期是460亿美元，现在最新的市值是431亿美元。03、估值重构？面对流量被AI弱化的风险，腾讯的反击不是去和字节拼大模型，和阿里拼GPU，拼独立App，而是将AI能力原生注入微信。这里面的阳谋，是这样的：首先，让你加AI智能体为微信\"新好友\"。这些智能体将以对话形式嵌入用户的聊天列表，等同于微信里多了一个AI好友。这个设计的精妙之处在于，完全符合用户已有的使用习惯，用户不需要下载新App、不需要学习新交互，微信还是那个微信，只是多了一个新好友。第二，让AI智能体成为微信服务的\"统一调度员\"。该智能体的核心能力是全面接入微信生态内数百万个小程序，用户只需下达自然语言指令，AI就能自动完成打车、外卖、订票、缴费等复杂任务。这意味着，微信小程序过去八年积累的生态壁垒，并没有消失。第三，让你还是离不开微信（AI智能体）。 过去，微信的入口价值体现在\"用户主动来\"，用户打开微信聊天、刷朋友圈、搜小程序。而AI智能体的加入，让微信的入口价值升级为\"客官请吩咐，小的马上去做\"。后面两点的厉害之处就在于，用户仍然需要从微信入口，各种想法、行为、数据等等，都留在微信的生态系内，结果也在微信系统内完成。换句话说，微信依然是流量的入口，是流量的过程，也是流量的终点，用户并不需要绕过其他APP。现在，腾讯已密集推出面向个人本地操控的QClaw、面向企业协作的企业微信机器人、以及多平台办公助手WorkBuddy。三款产品均未采用独立App形态，而是直接嵌入微信、企业微信等高频应用，而且微信团队也没有完全押注腾讯自研的混元模型，而是同步测试智谱、阿里、DeepSeek等外部模型及自研小模型，以确保在复杂多步骤任务处理中的稳定性。虽然效果如何还需要时间验证，但至少从逻辑上讲，如果最终微信能够守住流量入口的地位，那它就守住了自己的\"基本盘\"，估值中枢继续下跌的概率就变小；如果能顺势将微信从\"社交工具\"升级为\"智能操作系统\"，那估值中枢反而有机会迎来一波提升。毕竟，投资者现在最关心的，是能否将\"技术储备\"转向\"商业化落地\"，说白了就是你能用AI赚多少钱。而微信月活用户超过13亿，小程序日活超过4亿，公众号超过2000万个，就是现有的天然商业化土壤。为了方便说明，我们还可以简单算一笔账，假设腾讯推出10个智能体产品，月活用户达到3000万，付费率提升到20%，客单价提高到30元，那么每个智能体的月营收可达1.8亿元，10个智能体就是18亿元的月收入，年化营收超过200亿元。这还只是智能体本身的直接收入，如果考虑到由此带动的其他业务增长（如金融、电商等），整体收益将更加大。在如此的业绩增长预期面前，那个压在估值上的\"盖子\"，恐怕很难压住了吧？04、结语看看龙虾热潮，再看看流量入口争夺战，可以得出一个前瞻性的结论（可能还需要时间验证）：AI可以消灭超级入口，也可以重塑超级入口的形态。看懂了这一点，也就看得懂了腾讯的战略意图，它依然试图用最低的成本（智能体开发成本、运营成本低），然后基于自己强大的流量和生态系统的赋能，去撬动更高的收益杠杆。于竞争对手而言，当他们试图用独立App抢夺微信的流量入口时，微信却选择让AI\"住进\"自己体内。于14亿微信用户而言，既可以找人聊天，又可以找AI办事。当那个置顶在消息列表里的AI好友，能够调用数百万小程序完成一切生活服务时，你还会去打开其他APP吗？腾讯被各种羡慕嫉妒恨的\"从不争先，但总能后来居上\"的叙事，说不准会在AI时代再来一次。这大概就是资金冲进去抢腾讯的原因吧。当然了，市场也不乏冷静的声音。今天，腾讯股价高开低走，下午还翻绿了，最终画面定格在一根大阴线，虽然可以甩锅短期市场情绪的冲高回落，有资金见好就收，套牢盘趁机跑路，但也证明了，故事再好，估值再抢跑，最后还需要\"成绩单\"。关于这个，咱不也过度预测了，腾讯的智能体，到底是能端上五星级大酒店的高溢价大龙虾，还是只能上宵夜排档的平民小龙虾，等后面的数据验证吧。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"00700":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":90,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":541521261086640,"gmtCreate":1773232891870,"gmtModify":1773232893849,"author":{"id":"3435615840878311","authorId":"3435615840878311","name":"暴涨暴赚","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/931ccc12171c6d287be9ae1be78c5f05","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3435615840878311","authorIdStr":"3435615840878311"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"？","listText":"？","text":"？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/541521261086640","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":127,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":541469976371968,"gmtCreate":1773190044341,"gmtModify":1773190047251,"author":{"id":"3435615840878311","authorId":"3435615840878311","name":"暴涨暴赚","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/931ccc12171c6d287be9ae1be78c5f05","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3435615840878311","authorIdStr":"3435615840878311"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a 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style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/a81accab1e7ee4144dc051f71903a390);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">异动解读 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-02-23 09:47</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>港股AI大模型公司MINIMAX-WP今日盘中股价大幅下挫，跌幅一度超过11%，引起市场关注。</p><p>消息面上，同为港股大模型“双雄”之一的智谱公司，就其人工智能程序订阅套餐GLM Coding Plan发布致歉信，并公布了处理和补偿方案。信中承认该套餐在规则透明度、灰度发布节奏及老用户升级机制等方面存在设计问题。这一事件引发了市场对AI大模型公司产品管理、用户关系及商业模式的普遍担忧，情绪传导至同板块的MINIMAX-WP，导致其股价承压大跌。</p><p>近期，AI智能体（Agent）的发展趋势引发了资本市场对行业商业模式和竞争格局的重新评估。MINIMAX与智谱作为国内稀缺的上市大模型公司，其股价波动往往对市场情绪和板块走势具有指示意义。此次智谱的产品问题致歉，短期内可能加剧投资者对行业公司运营稳健性的审视。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"00100":"MINIMAX-WP"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1103221631","content_text":"港股AI大模型公司MINIMAX-WP今日盘中股价大幅下挫，跌幅一度超过11%，引起市场关注。消息面上，同为港股大模型“双雄”之一的智谱公司，就其人工智能程序订阅套餐GLM 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17:56","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Anthropic掌门人：AI技术正处于临界点，未来2-3年将决定人类未来","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2611114263","media":"智通财经网","summary":"未来2-3年将决定人类未来两百年的走向。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>在AI技术指数级爆发的前夜，Anthropic掌门人Dario Amodei抛出了震撼业界的预测：<strong>我们正处于“指数增长的黄昏”，最快到2026年，人类将迎来由数万个顶尖大脑组成的“数据中心里的天才国度”。</strong></p><p>近日，大模型独角兽Anthropic首席执行官Dario Amodei在与Dwarkesh Patel的深度访谈中，罕见地披露了公司惊人的营收增速预期，并对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AGBK\">AGI</a>（通用人工智能）的时间表、算力投资的财务逻辑以及地缘政治风险进行了详尽阐述。Amodei认为，AI技术正处于从量变到质变的临界点，未来2-3年将决定人类未来两百年的走向。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9885410242f0a11585f24a645146fa05\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"563\"/></p><p>（Anthropic首席执行官Dario Amodei作客Dwarkesh Patel播客）</p><p>AI 正处于指数级增长末期</p><p>Dario Amodei在访谈伊始就指出，我们已逼近 AI 指数增长曲线的尾声，而世界尚未充分感知这场质变。</p><p>从 GPT-1 到如今的专业级模型，AI 完成了从 “聪慧高中生” 到 “博士水准” 的跃迁，编程、数学等领域甚至实现超越，底层扩展定律从未失效，算力与数据的投入仍在持续兑现明确收益。</p><p>指数增长的魔力藏在末期的爆发里。Dario表示，Anthropic 年营收 10 倍的跨越式增长，Claude Code 让工程师生产力倍增，模型上下文长度与泛化能力的快速突破，都在印证 “终点临近” 的信号。<strong>这场增长不只是参数的堆砌，更是智能本质的升级 —— 从数据拟合到自主泛化，AI 正在补齐最后几块关键能力拼图。</strong></p><p>“数据中心里的天才国度”：重新定义2026</p><p>Amodei在访谈中提出了一个极具冲击力的概念——“数据中心里的天才国度”（A Country of Geniuses in a Datacenter）。他回顾了过去三年的技术演进，认为AI模型已从“聪明的高中生”进化为“专业人士”。</p><p>他大胆预测，<strong>到2026年或2027年，单一模型所展现出的智力水平、知识深度和逻辑推理能力，将不仅等同于一名诺贝尔奖得主，而是等同于数万名顶尖天才协同工作的集合体。</strong></p><p>对于这一时间表的确定性，Amodei表现出极高的信心：</p><p>“对于10年内实现这一愿景，我有90%的把握；而对于这在未来1-2年内发生，我认为是50/50的可能性。”</p><p>他指出，唯一的变数可能来自地缘政治灾难（如芯片供应链中断）或社会剧烈动荡。</p><p>营收狂飙：从1亿到100亿美元的“恐怖”曲线</p><p>市场最为关注的财务数据方面，Amodei披露了Anthropic令人咋舌的增长曲线。他透露，<strong>公司营收正经历着“怪异的每年10倍增长”（bizarre 10x per year growth）。</strong>Amodei在访谈中直言：</p><p>“2023年，我们从0增长到1亿美元；2024年，从1亿美元增长到10亿美元；而2025年，我们预计将达到90亿至100亿美元。这一指数级增长大致符合我的预期，甚至在今年第一个月，我们又增加了数十亿美元的营收。”</p><p>Amodei强调，尽管受到经济扩散速度（Diffusion）滞后的影响，企业采纳AI需要经过法律审核、合规检查等漫长流程，但技术本身的能力提升正在推动这一疯狂的增长曲线。</p><p>算力豪赌与破产风险：CEO的财务平衡术</p><p>面对如此确定的技术前景，为何不现在就举债万亿美元囤积芯片？Amodei给出了极具现实意义的财务解释：算力扩容必须与收入增长和预测精度挂钩，否则将面临毁灭性风险。</p><p>“<strong>如果我预测2027年会有万亿级需求，从而提前购买了价值1万亿美元的算力，但只要需求爆发的时间晚了一年，或者增长率稍微从10倍降至5倍，没有任何对冲手段能阻止公司破产</strong>。”Amodei解释道，这种基于“对数收益定律”的投资回报需要精密核算。</p><p>他指出，Anthropic目前的策略是“负责任地激进”，即投入的算力规模足以捕捉巨大的上行空间，但如果市场爆发推迟，公司凭借其企业级业务的高毛利和现金流，依然能够生存。</p><p>他预计，<strong>Anthropic有望在2028年左右实现盈利，届时AI将成为历史上盈利能力最强的产业之一。</strong></p><p>软件工程的终局：从写代码到取代工程师</p><p>在具体落地场景上，Amodei将编程视为AI最先攻克的堡垒。他将AI在软件工程领域的进化分为三个阶段：</p><p><strong>第一阶段：</strong>模型编写90%的代码行（已实现）。</p><p><strong>第二阶段：</strong>模型处理90%的端到端任务，如修复Bug、配置集群、撰写文档。</p><p><strong>第三阶段：</strong>模型具备“职场经验”，能够理解复杂代码库的上下文并设定技术方向。</p><p>Amodei预测，<strong>在1-3年内，AI将能够胜任高级软件工程师的所有职责。</strong></p><p>“这并不意味着工程师会失业，而是生产力的巨大爆发。现在的模型能做到的不仅是补全代码，而是直接接管GPU内核编写等高难度任务。”</p></body></html>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-02-14 17:56 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1405540.html><strong>智通财经网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>在AI技术指数级爆发的前夜，Anthropic掌门人Dario Amodei抛出了震撼业界的预测：我们正处于“指数增长的黄昏”，最快到2026年，人类将迎来由数万个顶尖大脑组成的“数据中心里的天才国度”。近日，大模型独角兽Anthropic首席执行官Dario Amodei在与Dwarkesh Patel的深度访谈中，罕见地披露了公司惊人的营收增速预期，并对AGI（通用人工智能）的时间表、算力投资...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1405540.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9885410242f0a11585f24a645146fa05","relate_stocks":{"AI":"C3.ai, Inc."},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1405540.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2611114263","content_text":"在AI技术指数级爆发的前夜，Anthropic掌门人Dario Amodei抛出了震撼业界的预测：我们正处于“指数增长的黄昏”，最快到2026年，人类将迎来由数万个顶尖大脑组成的“数据中心里的天才国度”。近日，大模型独角兽Anthropic首席执行官Dario Amodei在与Dwarkesh Patel的深度访谈中，罕见地披露了公司惊人的营收增速预期，并对AGI（通用人工智能）的时间表、算力投资的财务逻辑以及地缘政治风险进行了详尽阐述。Amodei认为，AI技术正处于从量变到质变的临界点，未来2-3年将决定人类未来两百年的走向。（Anthropic首席执行官Dario Amodei作客Dwarkesh Patel播客）AI 正处于指数级增长末期Dario Amodei在访谈伊始就指出，我们已逼近 AI 指数增长曲线的尾声，而世界尚未充分感知这场质变。从 GPT-1 到如今的专业级模型，AI 完成了从 “聪慧高中生” 到 “博士水准” 的跃迁，编程、数学等领域甚至实现超越，底层扩展定律从未失效，算力与数据的投入仍在持续兑现明确收益。指数增长的魔力藏在末期的爆发里。Dario表示，Anthropic 年营收 10 倍的跨越式增长，Claude Code 让工程师生产力倍增，模型上下文长度与泛化能力的快速突破，都在印证 “终点临近” 的信号。这场增长不只是参数的堆砌，更是智能本质的升级 —— 从数据拟合到自主泛化，AI 正在补齐最后几块关键能力拼图。“数据中心里的天才国度”：重新定义2026Amodei在访谈中提出了一个极具冲击力的概念——“数据中心里的天才国度”（A Country of Geniuses in a Datacenter）。他回顾了过去三年的技术演进，认为AI模型已从“聪明的高中生”进化为“专业人士”。他大胆预测，到2026年或2027年，单一模型所展现出的智力水平、知识深度和逻辑推理能力，将不仅等同于一名诺贝尔奖得主，而是等同于数万名顶尖天才协同工作的集合体。对于这一时间表的确定性，Amodei表现出极高的信心：“对于10年内实现这一愿景，我有90%的把握；而对于这在未来1-2年内发生，我认为是50/50的可能性。”他指出，唯一的变数可能来自地缘政治灾难（如芯片供应链中断）或社会剧烈动荡。营收狂飙：从1亿到100亿美元的“恐怖”曲线市场最为关注的财务数据方面，Amodei披露了Anthropic令人咋舌的增长曲线。他透露，公司营收正经历着“怪异的每年10倍增长”（bizarre 10x per year 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